Influenza H3N2 variant viruses with pandemic potential: preventing catastrophe in remote and isolated Canadian communities.
Identifieur interne : 000372 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000371; suivant : 000373Influenza H3N2 variant viruses with pandemic potential: preventing catastrophe in remote and isolated Canadian communities.
Auteurs : Marek Laskowski [Canada] ; Venkata R. Duvvuri ; David L. Buckeridge ; Gillian Wu ; Jianhong Wu ; Seyed M. MoghadasSource :
- Preventive medicine [ 1096-0260 ] ; 2013.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Adolescent (MeSH), Adulte (MeSH), Adulte d'âge moyen (MeSH), Enfant (MeSH), Enfant d'âge préscolaire (MeSH), Facteurs temps (MeSH), Facteurs âges (MeSH), Grippe humaine (prévention et contrôle), Grippe humaine (transmission), Grippe humaine (virologie), Humains (MeSH), Indiens d'Amérique Nord (statistiques et données numériques), Jeune adulte (MeSH), Manitoba (épidémiologie), Modèles théoriques (MeSH), Nourrisson (MeSH), Nouveau-né (MeSH), Pandémies (prévention et contrôle), Population rurale (statistiques et données numériques), Protection croisée (MeSH), Sous-type H3N2 du virus de la grippe A (MeSH), Sujet âgé (MeSH), Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus (MeSH).
- MESH :
- prévention et contrôle : Grippe humaine, Pandémies.
- statistiques et données numériques : Indiens d'Amérique Nord, Population rurale.
- virologie : Grippe humaine.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine, Manitoba.
- Adolescent, Adulte, Adulte d'âge moyen, Enfant, Enfant d'âge préscolaire, Facteurs temps, Facteurs âges, Humains, Jeune adulte, Modèles théoriques, Nourrisson, Nouveau-né, Protection croisée, Sous-type H3N2 du virus de la grippe A, Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Adolescent (MeSH), Adult (MeSH), Age Factors (MeSH), Aged (MeSH), Aged, 80 and over (MeSH), Child (MeSH), Child, Preschool (MeSH), Cross Protection (MeSH), Humans (MeSH), Indians, North American (statistics & numerical data), Infant (MeSH), Infant, Newborn (MeSH), Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype (MeSH), Influenza, Human (prevention & control), Influenza, Human (transmission), Influenza, Human (virology), Manitoba (epidemiology), Middle Aged (MeSH), Models, Theoretical (MeSH), Pandemics (prevention & control), Rural Population (statistics & numerical data), Time Factors (MeSH), Young Adult (MeSH).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Manitoba.
- prevention & control : Influenza, Human, Pandemics.
- statistics & numerical data : Indians, North American, Rural Population.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- virology : Influenza, Human.
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Cross Protection, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Time Factors, Young Adult.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE
To evaluate the impact of age-specific cross-reactive antibody protection levels on the outcomes of a pandemic outbreak of new variants of H3N2 influenza A viruses (H3N2v).
METHODS
We calibrated a previously validated agent-based model of human-to-human transmission of influenza viruses to project the outcomes of various protection levels in a remote and isolated Canadian community, when demographics are drawn from the Statistics Canada census data. We then compared the outcomes with a scenario in which demographic variables were shifted to resemble an urban structure. This comparative evaluation was conducted using in-silico computer simulations, where the epidemiological data were drawn from relevant estimates in published literature.
RESULTS
Simulations, using estimates of transmissibility for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic strain in the study population, show that the epidemic size is primarily affected by the cross-reactive protection levels of young children. A lower number of secondary infections at the early stages of an outbreak does not necessarily correspond to a lower epidemic size.
CONCLUSIONS
Demographic variables could play a significant role in determining the outcomes of an outbreak. The findings strongly suggest that, when an H3N2v-specific vaccine becomes available, children below the age of 17 should be prioritized for vaccination. This prioritization is essential in population settings with a low average age, including aboriginal communities in northern latitudes.
DOI: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2013.04.011
PubMed: 23628518
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
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Moghadas</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Preventive medicine</title><idno type="eISSN">1096-0260</idno><imprint><date when="2013" type="published">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent (MeSH)</term><term>Adult (MeSH)</term><term>Age Factors (MeSH)</term><term>Aged (MeSH)</term><term>Aged, 80 and over (MeSH)</term><term>Child (MeSH)</term><term>Child, Preschool (MeSH)</term><term>Cross Protection (MeSH)</term><term>Humans (MeSH)</term><term>Indians, North American (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Infant (MeSH)</term><term>Infant, Newborn (MeSH)</term><term>Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype (MeSH)</term><term>Influenza, Human (prevention & control)</term><term>Influenza, Human (transmission)</term><term>Influenza, Human (virology)</term><term>Manitoba (epidemiology)</term><term>Middle Aged (MeSH)</term><term>Models, Theoretical (MeSH)</term><term>Pandemics (prevention & control)</term><term>Rural Population (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Time Factors (MeSH)</term><term>Young Adult (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent (MeSH)</term><term>Adulte (MeSH)</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen (MeSH)</term><term>Enfant (MeSH)</term><term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire (MeSH)</term><term>Facteurs temps (MeSH)</term><term>Facteurs âges (MeSH)</term><term>Grippe humaine (prévention et contrôle)</term><term>Grippe humaine (transmission)</term><term>Grippe humaine (virologie)</term><term>Humains (MeSH)</term><term>Indiens d'Amérique Nord (statistiques et données numériques)</term><term>Jeune adulte (MeSH)</term><term>Manitoba (épidémiologie)</term><term>Modèles théoriques (MeSH)</term><term>Nourrisson (MeSH)</term><term>Nouveau-né (MeSH)</term><term>Pandémies (prévention et contrôle)</term><term>Population rurale (statistiques et données numériques)</term><term>Protection croisée (MeSH)</term><term>Sous-type H3N2 du virus de la grippe A (MeSH)</term><term>Sujet âgé (MeSH)</term><term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Manitoba</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term><term>Pandemics</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prévention et contrôle" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Pandémies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Indians, North American</term><term>Rural Population</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistiques et données numériques" xml:lang="fr"><term>Indiens d'Amérique Nord</term><term>Population rurale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term><term>Manitoba</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adult</term><term>Age Factors</term><term>Aged</term><term>Aged, 80 and over</term><term>Child</term><term>Child, Preschool</term><term>Cross Protection</term><term>Humans</term><term>Infant</term><term>Infant, Newborn</term><term>Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Time Factors</term><term>Young Adult</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adolescent</term><term>Adulte</term><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Enfant</term><term>Enfant d'âge préscolaire</term><term>Facteurs temps</term><term>Facteurs âges</term><term>Humains</term><term>Jeune adulte</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Nourrisson</term><term>Nouveau-né</term><term>Protection croisée</term><term>Sous-type H3N2 du virus de la grippe A</term><term>Sujet âgé</term><term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>OBJECTIVE</b></p><p>To evaluate the impact of age-specific cross-reactive antibody protection levels on the outcomes of a pandemic outbreak of new variants of H3N2 influenza A viruses (H3N2v).</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>METHODS</b></p><p>We calibrated a previously validated agent-based model of human-to-human transmission of influenza viruses to project the outcomes of various protection levels in a remote and isolated Canadian community, when demographics are drawn from the Statistics Canada census data. We then compared the outcomes with a scenario in which demographic variables were shifted to resemble an urban structure. This comparative evaluation was conducted using in-silico computer simulations, where the epidemiological data were drawn from relevant estimates in published literature.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>RESULTS</b></p><p>Simulations, using estimates of transmissibility for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic strain in the study population, show that the epidemic size is primarily affected by the cross-reactive protection levels of young children. A lower number of secondary infections at the early stages of an outbreak does not necessarily correspond to a lower epidemic size.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b></p><p>Demographic variables could play a significant role in determining the outcomes of an outbreak. The findings strongly suggest that, when an H3N2v-specific vaccine becomes available, children below the age of 17 should be prioritized for vaccination. This prioritization is essential in population settings with a low average age, including aboriginal communities in northern latitudes.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">23628518</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2014</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>13</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2013</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>22</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1096-0260</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>57</Volume><Issue>6</Issue><PubDate><Year>2013</Year><Month>Dec</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Preventive medicine</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Prev Med</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Influenza H3N2 variant viruses with pandemic potential: preventing catastrophe in remote and isolated Canadian communities.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>910-3</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.ypmed.2013.04.011</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S0091-7435(13)00120-5</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="OBJECTIVE" NlmCategory="OBJECTIVE">To evaluate the impact of age-specific cross-reactive antibody protection levels on the outcomes of a pandemic outbreak of new variants of H3N2 influenza A viruses (H3N2v).</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">We calibrated a previously validated agent-based model of human-to-human transmission of influenza viruses to project the outcomes of various protection levels in a remote and isolated Canadian community, when demographics are drawn from the Statistics Canada census data. We then compared the outcomes with a scenario in which demographic variables were shifted to resemble an urban structure. This comparative evaluation was conducted using in-silico computer simulations, where the epidemiological data were drawn from relevant estimates in published literature.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">Simulations, using estimates of transmissibility for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic strain in the study population, show that the epidemic size is primarily affected by the cross-reactive protection levels of young children. A lower number of secondary infections at the early stages of an outbreak does not necessarily correspond to a lower epidemic size.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Demographic variables could play a significant role in determining the outcomes of an outbreak. The findings strongly suggest that, when an H3N2v-specific vaccine becomes available, children below the age of 17 should be prioritized for vaccination. This prioritization is essential in population settings with a low average age, including aboriginal communities in northern latitudes.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Laskowski</LastName><ForeName>Marek</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Duvvuri</LastName><ForeName>Venkata R</ForeName><Initials>VR</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Buckeridge</LastName><ForeName>David L</ForeName><Initials>DL</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wu</LastName><ForeName>Gillian</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wu</LastName><ForeName>Jianhong</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Moghadas</LastName><ForeName>Seyed M</ForeName><Initials>SM</Initials></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>114932</GrantID><Agency>Canadian Institutes of Health Research</Agency><Country>Canada</Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2013</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>28</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>Prev Med</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>0322116</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0091-7435</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000293" MajorTopicYN="N">Adolescent</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000328" MajorTopicYN="N">Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000367" MajorTopicYN="N">Age Factors</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000368" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000369" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged, 80 and over</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002648" MajorTopicYN="N">Child</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002675" MajorTopicYN="N">Child, Preschool</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D056738" MajorTopicYN="N">Cross Protection</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007198" MajorTopicYN="N">Indians, North American</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000706" MajorTopicYN="N">statistics & numerical data</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007223" MajorTopicYN="N">Infant</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007231" MajorTopicYN="N">Infant, Newborn</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D053122" MajorTopicYN="Y">Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="Y">prevention & control</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="N">transmission</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000821" MajorTopicYN="N">virology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008350" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Manitoba</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008875" MajorTopicYN="N">Middle Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008962" MajorTopicYN="N">Models, Theoretical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemics</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="Y">prevention & control</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012424" MajorTopicYN="N">Rural Population</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000706" MajorTopicYN="N">statistics & numerical data</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D013997" MajorTopicYN="N">Time Factors</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D055815" MajorTopicYN="N">Young Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Agent-based modeling</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Cross-reactive antibody protection</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemic influenza</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Remote and isolated communities</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Vaccination</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2012</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>20</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2013</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>09</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2013</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>17</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2013</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>1</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2013</Year><Month>5</Month><Day>1</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2014</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>15</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23628518</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S0091-7435(13)00120-5</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1016/j.ypmed.2013.04.011</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Canada</li></country></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Buckeridge, David L" sort="Buckeridge, David L" uniqKey="Buckeridge D" first="David L" last="Buckeridge">David L. Buckeridge</name><name sortKey="Duvvuri, Venkata R" sort="Duvvuri, Venkata R" uniqKey="Duvvuri V" first="Venkata R" last="Duvvuri">Venkata R. Duvvuri</name><name sortKey="Moghadas, Seyed M" sort="Moghadas, Seyed M" uniqKey="Moghadas S" first="Seyed M" last="Moghadas">Seyed M. Moghadas</name><name sortKey="Wu, Gillian" sort="Wu, Gillian" uniqKey="Wu G" first="Gillian" last="Wu">Gillian Wu</name><name sortKey="Wu, Jianhong" sort="Wu, Jianhong" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Jianhong" last="Wu">Jianhong Wu</name></noCountry><country name="Canada"><noRegion><name sortKey="Laskowski, Marek" sort="Laskowski, Marek" uniqKey="Laskowski M" first="Marek" last="Laskowski">Marek Laskowski</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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