Assessment of Effectiveness of Control Strategies Against Simulated Outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Ontario, Canada.
Identifieur interne : 000163 ( Main/Corpus ); précédent : 000162; suivant : 000164Assessment of Effectiveness of Control Strategies Against Simulated Outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Ontario, Canada.
Auteurs : N. Lewis ; S. Dorjee ; C. Dubé ; J. Vanleeuwen ; J. SanchezSource :
- Transboundary and emerging diseases [ 1865-1682 ] ; 2017.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Animals, Communicable Disease Control (methods), Computer Simulation, Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control), Disease Outbreaks (veterinary), Influenza A virus (pathogenicity), Influenza in Birds (epidemiology), Influenza in Birds (prevention & control), Models, Biological, Ontario (epidemiology), Ovum, Poultry.
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Influenza in Birds, Ontario.
- methods : Communicable Disease Control.
- pathogenicity : Influenza A virus.
- prevention & control : Disease Outbreaks, Influenza in Birds.
- veterinary : Disease Outbreaks.
- Animals, Computer Simulation, Models, Biological, Ovum, Poultry.
Abstract
The North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM) is a stochastic model framework developed to simulate the spread of highly contagious diseases of livestock and poultry, such as foot-and-mouth disease and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The objective of this study was to make recommendations on the most effective HPAI control policy for Canada, specifically, on the effect of different speeds of detection, effectiveness of movement restrictions and stamping-out and ring-culling strategies on the magnitude of an HPAI outbreak. In addition, the effect of introduction of infection in a range of multiple farms simultaneously was also evaluated. A total of 21 060 scenarios, defined as different combinations of parameters for various epidemiological conditions and control measures, were created to simulate the number of poultry flocks that would become infected as a result of an incursion of HPAI. Each scenario was parameterized in NAADSM and replicated 1000 times, generating the median number of flocks infected at the end of the simulated outbreak for each scenario. Negative binomial regression analysis was used to model significant explanatory variables of the median number of flocks infected at the end of each simulated outbreak for each of the 21 060 scenarios. The final model included the following explanatory variables: number and type initially infected flock(s), density of flocks within the county where the initially infected flock(s) was located, probability of transmission through indirect contact, subclinical spread of the infection, speed of detection and a two-way interaction between intensity of bird destruction strategy and movement restriction effectiveness to reduce transmission through direct and indirect contacts. The modelling results suggested that stamping out of the detected infected flocks, without ring culling, in combination with effective movement restrictions on direct and indirect contacts, would be the most appropriate policy for Ontario.
DOI: 10.1111/tbed.12461
PubMed: 26666400
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:26666400Le document en format XML
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Dubé</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Ottawa, ON, Canada.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vanleeuwen, J" sort="Vanleeuwen, J" uniqKey="Vanleeuwen J" first="J" last="Vanleeuwen">J. Vanleeuwen</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Health Management, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, Canada.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sanchez, J" sort="Sanchez, J" uniqKey="Sanchez J" first="J" last="Sanchez">J. Sanchez</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Health Management, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, Canada.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2017">2017</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:26666400</idno><idno type="pmid">26666400</idno><idno type="doi">10.1111/tbed.12461</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000163</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000163</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Assessment of Effectiveness of Control Strategies Against Simulated Outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Ontario, Canada.</title><author><name sortKey="Lewis, N" sort="Lewis, N" uniqKey="Lewis N" first="N" last="Lewis">N. Lewis</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Health Management, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, Canada.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dorjee, S" sort="Dorjee, S" uniqKey="Dorjee S" first="S" last="Dorjee">S. Dorjee</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Bhutan Agriculture and Food Regulatory Authority, Ministry of Agriculture and Forests, Thimphu, Bhutan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dube, C" sort="Dube, C" uniqKey="Dube C" first="C" last="Dubé">C. Dubé</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Ottawa, ON, Canada.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vanleeuwen, J" sort="Vanleeuwen, J" uniqKey="Vanleeuwen J" first="J" last="Vanleeuwen">J. Vanleeuwen</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Health Management, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, Canada.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sanchez, J" sort="Sanchez, J" uniqKey="Sanchez J" first="J" last="Sanchez">J. Sanchez</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Health Management, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, Canada.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Transboundary and emerging diseases</title><idno type="eISSN">1865-1682</idno><imprint><date when="2017" type="published">2017</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Animals</term><term>Communicable Disease Control (methods)</term><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control)</term><term>Disease Outbreaks (veterinary)</term><term>Influenza A virus (pathogenicity)</term><term>Influenza in Birds (epidemiology)</term><term>Influenza in Birds (prevention & control)</term><term>Models, Biological</term><term>Ontario (epidemiology)</term><term>Ovum</term><term>Poultry</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza in Birds</term><term>Ontario</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="methods" xml:lang="en"><term>Communicable Disease Control</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="pathogenicity" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza A virus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Influenza in Birds</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="veterinary" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Outbreaks</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Animals</term><term>Computer Simulation</term><term>Models, Biological</term><term>Ovum</term><term>Poultry</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM) is a stochastic model framework developed to simulate the spread of highly contagious diseases of livestock and poultry, such as foot-and-mouth disease and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The objective of this study was to make recommendations on the most effective HPAI control policy for Canada, specifically, on the effect of different speeds of detection, effectiveness of movement restrictions and stamping-out and ring-culling strategies on the magnitude of an HPAI outbreak. In addition, the effect of introduction of infection in a range of multiple farms simultaneously was also evaluated. A total of 21 060 scenarios, defined as different combinations of parameters for various epidemiological conditions and control measures, were created to simulate the number of poultry flocks that would become infected as a result of an incursion of HPAI. Each scenario was parameterized in NAADSM and replicated 1000 times, generating the median number of flocks infected at the end of the simulated outbreak for each scenario. Negative binomial regression analysis was used to model significant explanatory variables of the median number of flocks infected at the end of each simulated outbreak for each of the 21 060 scenarios. The final model included the following explanatory variables: number and type initially infected flock(s), density of flocks within the county where the initially infected flock(s) was located, probability of transmission through indirect contact, subclinical spread of the infection, speed of detection and a two-way interaction between intensity of bird destruction strategy and movement restriction effectiveness to reduce transmission through direct and indirect contacts. The modelling results suggested that stamping out of the detected infected flocks, without ring culling, in combination with effective movement restrictions on direct and indirect contacts, would be the most appropriate policy for Ontario.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" IndexingMethod="Curated" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">26666400</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2017</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>16</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2018</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>02</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1865-1682</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>64</Volume><Issue>3</Issue><PubDate><Year>2017</Year><Month>Jun</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Transboundary and emerging diseases</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Transbound Emerg Dis</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Assessment of Effectiveness of Control Strategies Against Simulated Outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Ontario, Canada.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>938-950</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1111/tbed.12461</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>The North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM) is a stochastic model framework developed to simulate the spread of highly contagious diseases of livestock and poultry, such as foot-and-mouth disease and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The objective of this study was to make recommendations on the most effective HPAI control policy for Canada, specifically, on the effect of different speeds of detection, effectiveness of movement restrictions and stamping-out and ring-culling strategies on the magnitude of an HPAI outbreak. In addition, the effect of introduction of infection in a range of multiple farms simultaneously was also evaluated. A total of 21 060 scenarios, defined as different combinations of parameters for various epidemiological conditions and control measures, were created to simulate the number of poultry flocks that would become infected as a result of an incursion of HPAI. Each scenario was parameterized in NAADSM and replicated 1000 times, generating the median number of flocks infected at the end of the simulated outbreak for each scenario. Negative binomial regression analysis was used to model significant explanatory variables of the median number of flocks infected at the end of each simulated outbreak for each of the 21 060 scenarios. The final model included the following explanatory variables: number and type initially infected flock(s), density of flocks within the county where the initially infected flock(s) was located, probability of transmission through indirect contact, subclinical spread of the infection, speed of detection and a two-way interaction between intensity of bird destruction strategy and movement restriction effectiveness to reduce transmission through direct and indirect contacts. The modelling results suggested that stamping out of the detected infected flocks, without ring culling, in combination with effective movement restrictions on direct and indirect contacts, would be the most appropriate policy for Ontario.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lewis</LastName><ForeName>N</ForeName><Initials>N</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Health Management, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, Canada.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Dorjee</LastName><ForeName>S</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Bhutan Agriculture and Food Regulatory Authority, Ministry of Agriculture and Forests, Thimphu, Bhutan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Dubé</LastName><ForeName>C</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Ottawa, ON, Canada.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>VanLeeuwen</LastName><ForeName>J</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Health Management, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, Canada.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sanchez</LastName><ForeName>J</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Health Management, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE, Canada.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2015</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>15</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Germany</Country><MedlineTA>Transbound Emerg Dis</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101319538</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1865-1674</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000818" MajorTopicYN="N">Animals</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003140" MajorTopicYN="N">Communicable Disease Control</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000379" MajorTopicYN="Y">methods</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003198" MajorTopicYN="N">Computer Simulation</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D004196" MajorTopicYN="N">Disease Outbreaks</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="N">prevention & control</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000662" MajorTopicYN="Y">veterinary</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D009980" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza A virus</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000472" MajorTopicYN="Y">pathogenicity</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005585" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza in Birds</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="Y">prevention & control</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008954" MajorTopicYN="N">Models, Biological</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D009864" MajorTopicYN="N">Ontario</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D010063" MajorTopicYN="N">Ovum</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011200" MajorTopicYN="N">Poultry</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">North American Animal Disease Spread Model</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">control strategies</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">highly pathogenic avian influenza</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">policy</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">simulation modelling</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2015</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>06</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2015</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>17</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2017</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>17</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2015</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>16</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">26666400</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1111/tbed.12461</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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