The impact of regular school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics: a data-driven spatial transmission model for Belgium.
Identifieur interne : 000012 ( Main/Corpus ); précédent : 000011; suivant : 000013The impact of regular school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics: a data-driven spatial transmission model for Belgium.
Auteurs : Giancarlo De Luca ; Kim Van Kerckhove ; Pietro Coletti ; Chiara Poletto ; Nathalie Bossuyt ; Niel Hens ; Vittoria ColizzaSource :
- BMC infectious diseases [ 1471-2334 ] ; 2018.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
Abstract
BACKGROUND
School closure is often considered as an option to mitigate influenza epidemics because of its potential to reduce transmission in children and then in the community. The policy is still however highly debated because of controversial evidence. Moreover, the specific mechanisms leading to mitigation are not clearly identified.
METHODS
We introduced a stochastic spatial age-specific metapopulation model to assess the role of holiday-associated behavioral changes and how they affect seasonal influenza dynamics. The model is applied to Belgium, parameterized with country-specific data on social mixing and travel, and calibrated to the 2008/2009 influenza season. It includes behavioral changes occurring during weekend vs. weekday, and holiday vs. school-term. Several experimental scenarios are explored to identify the relevant social and behavioral mechanisms.
RESULTS
Stochastic numerical simulations show that holidays considerably delay the peak of the season and mitigate its impact. Changes in mixing patterns are responsible for the observed effects, whereas changes in travel behavior do not alter the epidemic. Weekends are important in slowing down the season by periodically dampening transmission. Christmas holidays have the largest impact on the epidemic, however later school breaks may help in reducing the epidemic size, stressing the importance of considering the full calendar. An extension of the Christmas holiday of 1 week may further mitigate the epidemic.
CONCLUSION
Changes in the way individuals establish contacts during holidays are the key ingredient explaining the mitigating effect of regular school closure. Our findings highlight the need to quantify these changes in different demographic and epidemic contexts in order to provide accurate and reliable evaluations of closure effectiveness. They also suggest strategic policies in the distribution of holiday periods to minimize the epidemic impact.
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-017-2934-3
PubMed: 29321005
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pubmed:29321005Le document en format XML
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Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMR-S 1136), Paris, 75012, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kerckhove, Kim Van" sort="Kerckhove, Kim Van" uniqKey="Kerckhove K" first="Kim Van" last="Kerckhove">Kim Van Kerckhove</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics, Hasselt University, Agoralaan Gebouw D, Diepenbeek, 3590, Belgium.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Coletti, Pietro" sort="Coletti, Pietro" uniqKey="Coletti P" first="Pietro" last="Coletti">Pietro Coletti</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics, Hasselt University, Agoralaan Gebouw D, Diepenbeek, 3590, Belgium.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Poletto, Chiara" sort="Poletto, Chiara" uniqKey="Poletto C" first="Chiara" last="Poletto">Chiara Poletto</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMR-S 1136), Paris, 75012, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bossuyt, Nathalie" sort="Bossuyt, Nathalie" uniqKey="Bossuyt N" first="Nathalie" last="Bossuyt">Nathalie Bossuyt</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Scientific Institute of Public Health (WIV-ISP), Public Health and Surveillance Directorate, Epidemiology of infectious diseases Service, Rue Juliette/Wytsmanstraat 14, Brussels, 1050, Belgium.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hens, Niel" sort="Hens, Niel" uniqKey="Hens N" first="Niel" last="Hens">Niel Hens</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics, Hasselt University, Agoralaan Gebouw D, Diepenbeek, 3590, Belgium.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for Health Economics Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, Wilrijk, 2610, Belgium.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Colizza, Vittoria" sort="Colizza, Vittoria" uniqKey="Colizza V" first="Vittoria" last="Colizza">Vittoria Colizza</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMR-S 1136), Paris, 75012, France. vittoria.colizza@inserm.fr.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>ISI Foundation, Torino, 10126, Italy. vittoria.colizza@inserm.fr.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2018">2018</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:29321005</idno><idno type="pmid">29321005</idno><idno type="doi">10.1186/s12879-017-2934-3</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000012</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000012</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">The impact of regular school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics: a data-driven spatial transmission model for Belgium.</title><author><name sortKey="Luca, Giancarlo De" sort="Luca, Giancarlo De" uniqKey="Luca G" first="Giancarlo De" last="Luca">Giancarlo De Luca</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMR-S 1136), Paris, 75012, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kerckhove, Kim Van" sort="Kerckhove, Kim Van" uniqKey="Kerckhove K" first="Kim Van" last="Kerckhove">Kim Van Kerckhove</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics, Hasselt University, Agoralaan Gebouw D, Diepenbeek, 3590, Belgium.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Coletti, Pietro" sort="Coletti, Pietro" uniqKey="Coletti P" first="Pietro" last="Coletti">Pietro Coletti</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics, Hasselt University, Agoralaan Gebouw D, Diepenbeek, 3590, Belgium.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Poletto, Chiara" sort="Poletto, Chiara" uniqKey="Poletto C" first="Chiara" last="Poletto">Chiara Poletto</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMR-S 1136), Paris, 75012, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bossuyt, Nathalie" sort="Bossuyt, Nathalie" uniqKey="Bossuyt N" first="Nathalie" last="Bossuyt">Nathalie Bossuyt</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Scientific Institute of Public Health (WIV-ISP), Public Health and Surveillance Directorate, Epidemiology of infectious diseases Service, Rue Juliette/Wytsmanstraat 14, Brussels, 1050, Belgium.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hens, Niel" sort="Hens, Niel" uniqKey="Hens N" first="Niel" last="Hens">Niel Hens</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics, Hasselt University, Agoralaan Gebouw D, Diepenbeek, 3590, Belgium.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for Health Economics Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, Wilrijk, 2610, Belgium.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Colizza, Vittoria" sort="Colizza, Vittoria" uniqKey="Colizza V" first="Vittoria" last="Colizza">Vittoria Colizza</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMR-S 1136), Paris, 75012, France. vittoria.colizza@inserm.fr.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>ISI Foundation, Torino, 10126, Italy. vittoria.colizza@inserm.fr.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">BMC infectious diseases</title><idno type="eISSN">1471-2334</idno><imprint><date when="2018" type="published">2018</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Adult</term><term>Belgium (epidemiology)</term><term>Child</term><term>Epidemics</term><term>Holidays (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Humans</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Schools</term><term>Seasons</term><term>Travel (statistics & numerical data)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Belgium</term><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Holidays</term><term>Travel</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Adult</term><term>Child</term><term>Epidemics</term><term>Humans</term><term>Schools</term><term>Seasons</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>BACKGROUND</b></p><p>School closure is often considered as an option to mitigate influenza epidemics because of its potential to reduce transmission in children and then in the community. The policy is still however highly debated because of controversial evidence. Moreover, the specific mechanisms leading to mitigation are not clearly identified.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>METHODS</b></p><p>We introduced a stochastic spatial age-specific metapopulation model to assess the role of holiday-associated behavioral changes and how they affect seasonal influenza dynamics. The model is applied to Belgium, parameterized with country-specific data on social mixing and travel, and calibrated to the 2008/2009 influenza season. It includes behavioral changes occurring during weekend vs. weekday, and holiday vs. school-term. Several experimental scenarios are explored to identify the relevant social and behavioral mechanisms.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>RESULTS</b></p><p>Stochastic numerical simulations show that holidays considerably delay the peak of the season and mitigate its impact. Changes in mixing patterns are responsible for the observed effects, whereas changes in travel behavior do not alter the epidemic. Weekends are important in slowing down the season by periodically dampening transmission. Christmas holidays have the largest impact on the epidemic, however later school breaks may help in reducing the epidemic size, stressing the importance of considering the full calendar. An extension of the Christmas holiday of 1 week may further mitigate the epidemic.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSION</b></p><p>Changes in the way individuals establish contacts during holidays are the key ingredient explaining the mitigating effect of regular school closure. Our findings highlight the need to quantify these changes in different demographic and epidemic contexts in order to provide accurate and reliable evaluations of closure effectiveness. They also suggest strategic policies in the distribution of holiday periods to minimize the epidemic impact.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">29321005</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2018</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>16</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2018</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>13</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1471-2334</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>18</Volume><Issue>1</Issue><PubDate><Year>2018</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>10</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>BMC infectious diseases</Title><ISOAbbreviation>BMC Infect. Dis.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>The impact of regular school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics: a data-driven spatial transmission model for Belgium.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>29</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1186/s12879-017-2934-3</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND">School closure is often considered as an option to mitigate influenza epidemics because of its potential to reduce transmission in children and then in the community. The policy is still however highly debated because of controversial evidence. Moreover, the specific mechanisms leading to mitigation are not clearly identified.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS">We introduced a stochastic spatial age-specific metapopulation model to assess the role of holiday-associated behavioral changes and how they affect seasonal influenza dynamics. The model is applied to Belgium, parameterized with country-specific data on social mixing and travel, and calibrated to the 2008/2009 influenza season. It includes behavioral changes occurring during weekend vs. weekday, and holiday vs. school-term. Several experimental scenarios are explored to identify the relevant social and behavioral mechanisms.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS">Stochastic numerical simulations show that holidays considerably delay the peak of the season and mitigate its impact. Changes in mixing patterns are responsible for the observed effects, whereas changes in travel behavior do not alter the epidemic. Weekends are important in slowing down the season by periodically dampening transmission. Christmas holidays have the largest impact on the epidemic, however later school breaks may help in reducing the epidemic size, stressing the importance of considering the full calendar. An extension of the Christmas holiday of 1 week may further mitigate the epidemic.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSION">Changes in the way individuals establish contacts during holidays are the key ingredient explaining the mitigating effect of regular school closure. Our findings highlight the need to quantify these changes in different demographic and epidemic contexts in order to provide accurate and reliable evaluations of closure effectiveness. They also suggest strategic policies in the distribution of holiday periods to minimize the epidemic impact.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Luca</LastName><ForeName>Giancarlo De</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMR-S 1136), Paris, 75012, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kerckhove</LastName><ForeName>Kim Van</ForeName><Initials>KV</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics, Hasselt University, Agoralaan Gebouw D, Diepenbeek, 3590, Belgium.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Coletti</LastName><ForeName>Pietro</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics, Hasselt University, Agoralaan Gebouw D, Diepenbeek, 3590, Belgium.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Poletto</LastName><ForeName>Chiara</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMR-S 1136), Paris, 75012, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bossuyt</LastName><ForeName>Nathalie</ForeName><Initials>N</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Scientific Institute of Public Health (WIV-ISP), Public Health and Surveillance Directorate, Epidemiology of infectious diseases Service, Rue Juliette/Wytsmanstraat 14, Brussels, 1050, Belgium.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Hens</LastName><ForeName>Niel</ForeName><Initials>N</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and Statistical Bioinformatics, Hasselt University, Agoralaan Gebouw D, Diepenbeek, 3590, Belgium.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centre for Health Economics Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, Wilrijk, 2610, Belgium.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Colizza</LastName><ForeName>Vittoria</ForeName><Initials>V</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-2113-2374</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, INSERM, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP UMR-S 1136), Paris, 75012, France. vittoria.colizza@inserm.fr.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>ISI Foundation, Torino, 10126, Italy. vittoria.colizza@inserm.fr.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>ANR-12-MONU-0018</GrantID><Agency>Agence Nationale de la Recherche (FR)</Agency><Country>International</Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>ANR-12-MONU-0018</GrantID><Agency>Agence Nationale de la Recherche (FR)</Agency><Country>International</Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>278433</GrantID><Agency>FP7 Health</Agency><Country>International</Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>682540</GrantID><Agency>H2020 European Research Council</Agency><Country>International</Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>682540</GrantID><Agency>H2020 European Research Council</Agency><Country>International</Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2018</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>10</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>BMC Infect Dis</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>100968551</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1471-2334</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000328" MajorTopicYN="N">Adult</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D001530" MajorTopicYN="N">Belgium</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002648" MajorTopicYN="N">Child</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058872" MajorTopicYN="N">Epidemics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006693" MajorTopicYN="N">Holidays</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000706" MajorTopicYN="N">statistics & numerical data</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012574" MajorTopicYN="Y">Schools</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012621" MajorTopicYN="N">Seasons</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014195" MajorTopicYN="N">Travel</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000706" MajorTopicYN="Y">statistics & numerical data</QualifierName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Epidemic modeling</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Influenza</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Metapopulation</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">School closure</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Spatial transmission</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2017</Year><Month>04</Month><Day>19</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2017</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>20</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2018</Year><Month>1</Month><Day>12</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2018</Year><Month>1</Month><Day>13</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2018</Year><Month>7</Month><Day>17</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">29321005</ArticleId><ArticleId 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