A mathematical model for the European spread of influenza.
Identifieur interne : 000597 ( Main/Corpus ); précédent : 000596; suivant : 000598A mathematical model for the European spread of influenza.
Auteurs : A. Flahault ; S. Deguen ; A J ValleronSource :
- European journal of epidemiology [ 0393-2990 ] ; 1994.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Aviation (MeSH), Belgium (epidemiology), Berlin (epidemiology), Denmark (epidemiology), Disease Outbreaks (statistics & numerical data), Disease Susceptibility (MeSH), Europe (epidemiology), Forecasting (MeSH), France (epidemiology), Humans (MeSH), Hungary (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (transmission), Italy (epidemiology), London (epidemiology), Models, Statistical (MeSH), Paris (epidemiology), Spain (epidemiology), Sweden (epidemiology), Travel (MeSH).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Belgium, Berlin, Denmark, Europe, France, Hungary, Italy, London, Paris, Spain, Sweden.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- statistics & numerical data : Disease Outbreaks.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Aviation, Disease Susceptibility, Forecasting, Humans, Models, Statistical, Travel.
Abstract
Following a study modelling the geographical spread of influenza in France, on the basis of population movements through the use of railroad data, we applied the same methodology on a European scale. We simulated an epidemic within a network of 9 European cities (Amsterdam, Berlin, Budapest, Copenhagen, London, Madrid, Milano, Paris, Stockholm), only taking into account regular between-cities air transport. Transportation data were obtained from the International Civil Aviation Organization (1991). The theoretical results show that the time lag for action is probably short (less than one month) after the first detection of an epidemic focus.
DOI: 10.1007/BF01719679
PubMed: 7843359
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:7843359Le document en format XML
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Deguen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Valleron, A J" sort="Valleron, A J" uniqKey="Valleron A" first="A J" last="Valleron">A J Valleron</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="1994">1994</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:7843359</idno><idno type="pmid">7843359</idno><idno type="doi">10.1007/BF01719679</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000597</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000597</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">A mathematical model for the European spread of influenza.</title><author><name sortKey="Flahault, A" sort="Flahault, A" uniqKey="Flahault A" first="A" last="Flahault">A. Flahault</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Faculté de Médecine Saint-Antoine, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Deguen, S" sort="Deguen, S" uniqKey="Deguen S" first="S" last="Deguen">S. Deguen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Valleron, A J" sort="Valleron, A J" uniqKey="Valleron A" first="A J" last="Valleron">A J Valleron</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">European journal of epidemiology</title><idno type="ISSN">0393-2990</idno><imprint><date when="1994" type="published">1994</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Aviation (MeSH)</term><term>Belgium (epidemiology)</term><term>Berlin (epidemiology)</term><term>Denmark (epidemiology)</term><term>Disease Outbreaks (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Disease Susceptibility (MeSH)</term><term>Europe (epidemiology)</term><term>Forecasting (MeSH)</term><term>France (epidemiology)</term><term>Humans (MeSH)</term><term>Hungary (epidemiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (transmission)</term><term>Italy (epidemiology)</term><term>London (epidemiology)</term><term>Models, Statistical (MeSH)</term><term>Paris (epidemiology)</term><term>Spain (epidemiology)</term><term>Sweden (epidemiology)</term><term>Travel (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Belgium</term><term>Berlin</term><term>Denmark</term><term>Europe</term><term>France</term><term>Hungary</term><term>Italy</term><term>London</term><term>Paris</term><term>Spain</term><term>Sweden</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Disease Outbreaks</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Aviation</term><term>Disease Susceptibility</term><term>Forecasting</term><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Statistical</term><term>Travel</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Following a study modelling the geographical spread of influenza in France, on the basis of population movements through the use of railroad data, we applied the same methodology on a European scale. We simulated an epidemic within a network of 9 European cities (Amsterdam, Berlin, Budapest, Copenhagen, London, Madrid, Milano, Paris, Stockholm), only taking into account regular between-cities air transport. Transportation data were obtained from the International Civil Aviation Organization (1991). The theoretical results show that the time lag for action is probably short (less than one month) after the first detection of an epidemic focus.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">7843359</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>1995</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>08</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2019</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>04</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">0393-2990</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>10</Volume><Issue>4</Issue><PubDate><Year>1994</Year><Month>Aug</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>European journal of epidemiology</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Eur. J. Epidemiol.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>A mathematical model for the European spread of influenza.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>471-4</MedlinePgn></Pagination><Abstract><AbstractText>Following a study modelling the geographical spread of influenza in France, on the basis of population movements through the use of railroad data, we applied the same methodology on a European scale. We simulated an epidemic within a network of 9 European cities (Amsterdam, Berlin, Budapest, Copenhagen, London, Madrid, Milano, Paris, Stockholm), only taking into account regular between-cities air transport. Transportation data were obtained from the International Civil Aviation Organization (1991). The theoretical results show that the time lag for action is probably short (less than one month) after the first detection of an epidemic focus.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Flahault</LastName><ForeName>A</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Faculté de Médecine Saint-Antoine, Paris, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Deguen</LastName><ForeName>S</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Valleron</LastName><ForeName>A J</ForeName><Initials>AJ</Initials></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Netherlands</Country><MedlineTA>Eur J Epidemiol</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>8508062</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0393-2990</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D001359" MajorTopicYN="N">Aviation</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D001530" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Belgium</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D001604" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Berlin</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003718" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Denmark</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D004196" MajorTopicYN="Y">Disease Outbreaks</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000706" MajorTopicYN="N">statistics & numerical data</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D004198" MajorTopicYN="N">Disease Susceptibility</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005060" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Europe</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005544" MajorTopicYN="N">Forecasting</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005602" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">France</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006814" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Hungary</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="N">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007558" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Italy</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008131" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">London</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D015233" MajorTopicYN="Y">Models, Statistical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D010297" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Paris</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D013030" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Spain</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D013548" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Sweden</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014195" MajorTopicYN="N">Travel</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>1994</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>1</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>1994</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>1</Day><Hour>0</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>1994</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>1</Day><Hour>0</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">7843359</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1007/BF01719679</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Stat Med. 1988 Nov;7(11):1147-55</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">3201040</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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