Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV.
Identifieur interne : 000B66 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 000B65; suivant : 000B67Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV.
Auteurs : Tao Zhou [République populaire de Chine] ; Quanhui Liu [République populaire de Chine] ; Zimo Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Jingyi Liao [République populaire de Chine] ; Kexin Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Wei Bai [République populaire de Chine] ; Xin Lu [République populaire de Chine] ; Wei Zhang [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Journal of evidence-based medicine [ 1756-5391 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Chine (épidémiologie), Humains, Infections à coronavirus (), Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Modèles théoriques, Nombre de reproduction de base, Pneumopathie virale (), Pneumopathie virale (transmission), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Prévision.
- MESH :
- Wicri :
- geographic : République populaire de Chine.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Basic Reproduction Number, Betacoronavirus, China (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (prevention & control), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Forecasting, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (prevention & control), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- prevention & control : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Basic Reproduction Number, Betacoronavirus, Forecasting, Humans, Models, Theoretical.
Abstract
To estimate the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).
DOI: 10.1111/jebm.12376
PubMed: 32048815
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pubmed:32048815Le document en format XML
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">To estimate the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32048815</PMID>
<DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>03</Month>
<Day>16</Day>
</DateCompleted>
<DateRevised><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>03</Month>
<Day>25</Day>
</DateRevised>
<Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1756-5391</ISSN>
<JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>13</Volume>
<Issue>1</Issue>
<PubDate><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>Feb</Month>
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<Title>Journal of evidence-based medicine</Title>
<ISOAbbreviation>J Evid Based Med</ISOAbbreviation>
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<ArticleTitle>Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV.</ArticleTitle>
<Pagination><MedlinePgn>3-7</MedlinePgn>
</Pagination>
<ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1111/jebm.12376</ELocationID>
<Abstract><AbstractText Label="OBJECTIVES" NlmCategory="OBJECTIVE">To estimate the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">Based on the susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) compartment model and the assumption that the infectious cases with symptoms occurred before 26 January, 2020 are resulted from free propagation without intervention, we estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV according to the reported confirmed cases and suspected cases, as well as the theoretical estimated number of infected cases by other research teams, together with some epidemiological determinants learned from the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">The basic reproduction number fall between 2.8 and 3.3 by using the real-time reports on the number of 2019-nCoV-infected cases from People's Daily in China and fall between 3.2 and 3.9 on the basis of the predicted number of infected cases from international colleagues.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">The early transmission ability of 2019-nCoV is close to or slightly higher than SARS. It is a controllable disease with moderate to high transmissibility. Timely and effective control measures are needed to prevent the further transmissions.</AbstractText>
<CopyrightInformation>© 2020 Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.</CopyrightInformation>
</Abstract>
<AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhou</LastName>
<ForeName>Tao</ForeName>
<Initials>T</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Big Data Research Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, 611731, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Liu</LastName>
<ForeName>Quanhui</ForeName>
<Initials>Q</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yang</LastName>
<ForeName>Zimo</ForeName>
<Initials>Z</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Beijing AiQiYi Science & Technology Co. Ltd., Beijing, 100080, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Liao</LastName>
<ForeName>Jingyi</ForeName>
<Initials>J</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, 518055, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yang</LastName>
<ForeName>Kexin</ForeName>
<Initials>K</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China.</Affiliation>
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<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bai</LastName>
<ForeName>Wei</ForeName>
<Initials>W</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CompleX Lab, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, 611731, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lu</LastName>
<ForeName>Xin</ForeName>
<Initials>X</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, 410073, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
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<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhang</LastName>
<ForeName>Wei</ForeName>
<Initials>W</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>West China Biomedical Big Data Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610047, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
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<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005544" MajorTopicYN="N">Forecasting</DescriptorName>
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<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName>
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<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008962" MajorTopicYN="N">Models, Theoretical</DescriptorName>
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<MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011024" MajorTopicYN="Y">Pneumonia, Viral</DescriptorName>
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<KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)</Keyword>
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