Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV.
Identifieur interne : 000B66 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 000B65; suivant : 000B67Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV.
Auteurs : Tao Zhou [République populaire de Chine] ; Quanhui Liu [République populaire de Chine] ; Zimo Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Jingyi Liao [République populaire de Chine] ; Kexin Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Wei Bai [République populaire de Chine] ; Xin Lu [République populaire de Chine] ; Wei Zhang [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Journal of evidence-based medicine [ 1756-5391 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Chine (épidémiologie), Humains, Infections à coronavirus (), Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Modèles théoriques, Nombre de reproduction de base, Pneumopathie virale (), Pneumopathie virale (transmission), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Prévision.
- MESH :
- Wicri :
- geographic : République populaire de Chine.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Basic Reproduction Number, Betacoronavirus, China (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (prevention & control), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Forecasting, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (prevention & control), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- prevention & control : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Basic Reproduction Number, Betacoronavirus, Forecasting, Humans, Models, Theoretical.
Abstract
To estimate the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).
DOI: 10.1111/jebm.12376
PubMed: 32048815
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pubmed:32048815Le document en format XML
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Ltd., Beijing, 100080, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Beijing AiQiYi Science & Technology Co. Ltd., Beijing, 100080</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liao, Jingyi" sort="Liao, Jingyi" uniqKey="Liao J" first="Jingyi" last="Liao">Jingyi Liao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, 518055, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, 518055</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Kexin" sort="Yang, Kexin" uniqKey="Yang K" first="Kexin" last="Yang">Kexin Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bai, Wei" sort="Bai, Wei" uniqKey="Bai W" first="Wei" last="Bai">Wei Bai</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>CompleX Lab, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, 611731, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>CompleX Lab, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, 611731</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lu, Xin" sort="Lu, Xin" uniqKey="Lu X" first="Xin" last="Lu">Xin Lu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, 410073, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, 410073</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Wei" sort="Zhang, Wei" uniqKey="Zhang W" first="Wei" last="Zhang">Wei Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>West China Biomedical Big Data Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610047, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>West China Biomedical Big Data Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610047</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of evidence-based medicine</title><idno type="eISSN">1756-5391</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Basic Reproduction Number</term><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>China (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (prevention & control)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections 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qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Chine</term><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Basic Reproduction Number</term><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>Forecasting</term><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Humains</term><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Modèles théoriques</term><term>Nombre de reproduction de base</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term><term>Prévision</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>République populaire de Chine</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">To estimate the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32048815</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>16</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>25</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1756-5391</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>13</Volume><Issue>1</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Feb</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Journal of evidence-based medicine</Title><ISOAbbreviation>J Evid Based Med</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>3-7</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1111/jebm.12376</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="OBJECTIVES" NlmCategory="OBJECTIVE">To estimate the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">Based on the susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) compartment model and the assumption that the infectious cases with symptoms occurred before 26 January, 2020 are resulted from free propagation without intervention, we estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV according to the reported confirmed cases and suspected cases, as well as the theoretical estimated number of infected cases by other research teams, together with some epidemiological determinants learned from the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">The basic reproduction number fall between 2.8 and 3.3 by using the real-time reports on the number of 2019-nCoV-infected cases from People's Daily in China and fall between 3.2 and 3.9 on the basis of the predicted number of infected cases from international colleagues.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">The early transmission ability of 2019-nCoV is close to or slightly higher than SARS. It is a controllable disease with moderate to high transmissibility. Timely and effective control measures are needed to prevent the further transmissions.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2020 Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhou</LastName><ForeName>Tao</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Big Data Research Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, 611731, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Liu</LastName><ForeName>Quanhui</ForeName><Initials>Q</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yang</LastName><ForeName>Zimo</ForeName><Initials>Z</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Beijing AiQiYi Science & Technology Co. Ltd., Beijing, 100080, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Liao</LastName><ForeName>Jingyi</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, 518055, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yang</LastName><ForeName>Kexin</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bai</LastName><ForeName>Wei</ForeName><Initials>W</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CompleX Lab, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, 611731, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lu</LastName><ForeName>Xin</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, 410073, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhang</LastName><ForeName>Wei</ForeName><Initials>W</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>West China Biomedical Big Data Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610047, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>61433014</GrantID><Agency>National Natural Science Foundation of China</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>11975071</GrantID><Agency>National Natural Science Foundation of China</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>71771213</GrantID><Agency>National Natural Science Foundation of China</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>91846301</GrantID><Agency>National Natural Science Foundation of China</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>71790615</GrantID><Agency>National Natural Science Foundation of China</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>71774168</GrantID><Agency>National Natural Science Foundation of China</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><Agency>Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>2017RS3040</GrantID><Agency>Hunan Science and Technology Plan</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>2018JJ1034</GrantID><Agency>Hunan Science and Technology Plan</Agency><Country></Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>12</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>J Evid Based Med</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101497477</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1756-5391</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><SupplMeshList><SupplMeshName Type="Disease" UI="C000657245">COVID-19</SupplMeshName><SupplMeshName Type="Organism" UI="C000656484">severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</SupplMeshName></SupplMeshList><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D050936" MajorTopicYN="Y">Basic Reproduction Number</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000073640" MajorTopicYN="Y">Betacoronavirus</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002681" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">China</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="Y">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="N">prevention & control</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="N">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005544" MajorTopicYN="N">Forecasting</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008962" MajorTopicYN="N">Models, Theoretical</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011024" MajorTopicYN="Y">Pneumonia, Viral</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="N">prevention & control</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="N">transmission</QualifierName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">basic reproduction number</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>29</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>29</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>13</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>17</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>13</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32048815</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1111/jebm.12376</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Title>REFERENCES</Title><Reference><Citation>Adnerson RM. 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