Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020.
Identifieur interne : 000C01 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000C00; suivant : 000C02Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020.
Auteurs : Giulia Pullano ; Francesco Pinotti ; Eugenio Valdano ; Pierre-Yves Boëlle ; Chiara Poletto ; Vittoria ColizzaSource :
- Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin [ 1560-7917 ] ; 2020.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Air Travel, Betacoronavirus, China (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (prevention & control), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Disease Outbreaks, Europe (epidemiology), Humans, Models, Theoretical, Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (prevention & control), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), Public Policy, Risk Assessment.
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China, Europe.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- prevention & control : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Air Travel, Betacoronavirus, Disease Outbreaks, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Public Policy, Risk Assessment.
Abstract
As at 27 January 2020, 42 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases were confirmed outside China. We estimate the risk of case importation to Europe from affected areas in China via air travel. We consider travel restrictions in place, three reported cases in France, one in Germany. Estimated risk in Europe remains high. The United Kingdom, Germany and France are at highest risk. Importation from Beijing and Shanghai would lead to higher and widespread risk for Europe.
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000057
PubMed: 32019667
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pubmed:32019667Le document en format XML
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The Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Boelle, Pierre Yves" sort="Boelle, Pierre Yves" uniqKey="Boelle P" first="Pierre-Yves" last="Boëlle">Pierre-Yves Boëlle</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, IPLESP, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Poletto, Chiara" sort="Poletto, Chiara" uniqKey="Poletto C" first="Chiara" last="Poletto">Chiara Poletto</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, IPLESP, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Colizza, Vittoria" sort="Colizza, Vittoria" uniqKey="Colizza V" first="Vittoria" last="Colizza">Vittoria Colizza</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, IPLESP, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32019667</idno><idno type="pmid">32019667</idno><idno type="doi">10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000057</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000C01</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000C01</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020.</title><author><name sortKey="Pullano, Giulia" sort="Pullano, Giulia" uniqKey="Pullano G" first="Giulia" last="Pullano">Giulia Pullano</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, IPLESP, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pinotti, Francesco" sort="Pinotti, Francesco" uniqKey="Pinotti F" first="Francesco" last="Pinotti">Francesco Pinotti</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, IPLESP, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Valdano, Eugenio" sort="Valdano, Eugenio" uniqKey="Valdano E" first="Eugenio" last="Valdano">Eugenio Valdano</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Center for Biomedical Modeling, The Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Boelle, Pierre Yves" sort="Boelle, Pierre Yves" uniqKey="Boelle P" first="Pierre-Yves" last="Boëlle">Pierre-Yves Boëlle</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, IPLESP, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Poletto, Chiara" sort="Poletto, Chiara" uniqKey="Poletto C" first="Chiara" last="Poletto">Chiara Poletto</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, IPLESP, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Colizza, Vittoria" sort="Colizza, Vittoria" uniqKey="Colizza V" first="Vittoria" last="Colizza">Vittoria Colizza</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, IPLESP, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin</title><idno type="eISSN">1560-7917</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Air Travel</term><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>China (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (prevention & control)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Europe (epidemiology)</term><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (prevention & control)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (transmission)</term><term>Public Policy</term><term>Risk Assessment</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>China</term><term>Europe</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="prevention & control" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Air Travel</term><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Humans</term><term>Models, Theoretical</term><term>Public Policy</term><term>Risk Assessment</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">As at 27 January 2020, 42 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases were confirmed outside China. We estimate the risk of case importation to Europe from affected areas in China via air travel. We consider travel restrictions in place, three reported cases in France, one in Germany. Estimated risk in Europe remains high. The United Kingdom, Germany and France are at highest risk. Importation from Beijing and Shanghai would lead to higher and widespread risk for Europe.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32019667</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>18</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>25</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1560-7917</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>25</Volume><Issue>4</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>01</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Euro Surveill.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) early-stage importation risk to Europe, January 2020.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000057</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>As at 27 January 2020, 42 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases were confirmed outside China. We estimate the risk of case importation to Europe from affected areas in China via air travel. We consider travel restrictions in place, three reported cases in France, one in Germany. Estimated risk in Europe remains high. The United Kingdom, Germany and France are at highest risk. Importation from Beijing and Shanghai would lead to higher and widespread risk for Europe.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Pullano</LastName><ForeName>Giulia</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, IPLESP, Paris, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Pinotti</LastName><ForeName>Francesco</ForeName><Initials>F</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, IPLESP, Paris, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Valdano</LastName><ForeName>Eugenio</ForeName><Initials>E</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Biomedical Modeling, The Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Boëlle</LastName><ForeName>Pierre-Yves</ForeName><Initials>PY</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, IPLESP, Paris, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Poletto</LastName><ForeName>Chiara</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, IPLESP, Paris, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Colizza</LastName><ForeName>Vittoria</ForeName><Initials>V</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, IPLESP, Paris, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Sweden</Country><MedlineTA>Euro Surveill</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>100887452</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1025-496X</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><SupplMeshList><SupplMeshName Type="Disease" UI="C000657245">COVID-19</SupplMeshName><SupplMeshName Type="Organism" UI="C000656484">severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</SupplMeshName></SupplMeshList><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D064870" MajorTopicYN="Y">Air Travel</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000073640" MajorTopicYN="Y">Betacoronavirus</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002681" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">China</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="Y">Coronavirus 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