The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
Identifieur interne : 000756 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000755; suivant : 000757The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
Auteurs : Matteo Chinazzi ; Jessica T. Davis ; Marco Ajelli ; Corrado Gioannini ; Maria Litvinova ; Stefano Merler ; Ana Pastore Y Piontti ; Kunpeng Mu ; Luca Rossi ; Kaiyuan Sun ; Cécile Viboud ; Xinyue Xiong ; Hongjie Yu ; M Elizabeth Halloran ; Ira M. Longini ; Alessandro VespignaniSource :
- Science (New York, N.Y.) [ 1095-9203 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated based on internationally reported cases, and shows that at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in Mainland China, but has a more marked effect at the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.
DOI: 10.1126/science.aba9757
PubMed: 32144116
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Davis</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ajelli, Marco" sort="Ajelli, Marco" uniqKey="Ajelli M" first="Marco" last="Ajelli">Marco Ajelli</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gioannini, Corrado" sort="Gioannini, Corrado" uniqKey="Gioannini C" first="Corrado" last="Gioannini">Corrado Gioannini</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Litvinova, Maria" sort="Litvinova, Maria" uniqKey="Litvinova M" first="Maria" last="Litvinova">Maria Litvinova</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Merler, Stefano" sort="Merler, Stefano" uniqKey="Merler S" first="Stefano" last="Merler">Stefano Merler</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pastore Y Piontti, Ana" sort="Pastore Y Piontti, Ana" uniqKey="Pastore Y Piontti A" first="Ana" last="Pastore Y Piontti">Ana Pastore Y Piontti</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mu, Kunpeng" sort="Mu, Kunpeng" uniqKey="Mu K" first="Kunpeng" last="Mu">Kunpeng Mu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rossi, Luca" sort="Rossi, Luca" uniqKey="Rossi L" first="Luca" last="Rossi">Luca Rossi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sun, Kaiyuan" sort="Sun, Kaiyuan" uniqKey="Sun K" first="Kaiyuan" last="Sun">Kaiyuan Sun</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Fogarty International Center, NIH, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Viboud, Cecile" sort="Viboud, Cecile" uniqKey="Viboud C" first="Cécile" last="Viboud">Cécile Viboud</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Fogarty International Center, NIH, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xiong, Xinyue" sort="Xiong, Xinyue" uniqKey="Xiong X" first="Xinyue" last="Xiong">Xinyue Xiong</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Hongjie" sort="Yu, Hongjie" uniqKey="Yu H" first="Hongjie" last="Yu">Hongjie Yu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Halloran, M Elizabeth" sort="Halloran, M Elizabeth" uniqKey="Halloran M" first="M Elizabeth" last="Halloran">M Elizabeth Halloran</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Longini, Ira M" sort="Longini, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini I" first="Ira M" last="Longini">Ira M. Longini</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. a.vespignani@northeastern.edu ilongini@ufl.edu.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vespignani, Alessandro" sort="Vespignani, Alessandro" uniqKey="Vespignani A" first="Alessandro" last="Vespignani">Alessandro Vespignani</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA. a.vespignani@northeastern.edu ilongini@ufl.edu.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32144116</idno><idno type="pmid">32144116</idno><idno type="doi">10.1126/science.aba9757</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000756</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000756</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.</title><author><name sortKey="Chinazzi, Matteo" sort="Chinazzi, Matteo" uniqKey="Chinazzi M" first="Matteo" last="Chinazzi">Matteo Chinazzi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Davis, Jessica T" sort="Davis, Jessica T" uniqKey="Davis J" first="Jessica T" last="Davis">Jessica T. Davis</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ajelli, Marco" sort="Ajelli, Marco" uniqKey="Ajelli M" first="Marco" last="Ajelli">Marco Ajelli</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gioannini, Corrado" sort="Gioannini, Corrado" uniqKey="Gioannini C" first="Corrado" last="Gioannini">Corrado Gioannini</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Litvinova, Maria" sort="Litvinova, Maria" uniqKey="Litvinova M" first="Maria" last="Litvinova">Maria Litvinova</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Merler, Stefano" sort="Merler, Stefano" uniqKey="Merler S" first="Stefano" last="Merler">Stefano Merler</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pastore Y Piontti, Ana" sort="Pastore Y Piontti, Ana" uniqKey="Pastore Y Piontti A" first="Ana" last="Pastore Y Piontti">Ana Pastore Y Piontti</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mu, Kunpeng" sort="Mu, Kunpeng" uniqKey="Mu K" first="Kunpeng" last="Mu">Kunpeng Mu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Rossi, Luca" sort="Rossi, Luca" uniqKey="Rossi L" first="Luca" last="Rossi">Luca Rossi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sun, Kaiyuan" sort="Sun, Kaiyuan" uniqKey="Sun K" first="Kaiyuan" last="Sun">Kaiyuan Sun</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Fogarty International Center, NIH, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Viboud, Cecile" sort="Viboud, Cecile" uniqKey="Viboud C" first="Cécile" last="Viboud">Cécile Viboud</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Fogarty International Center, NIH, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xiong, Xinyue" sort="Xiong, Xinyue" uniqKey="Xiong X" first="Xinyue" last="Xiong">Xinyue Xiong</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Hongjie" sort="Yu, Hongjie" uniqKey="Yu H" first="Hongjie" last="Yu">Hongjie Yu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Halloran, M Elizabeth" sort="Halloran, M Elizabeth" uniqKey="Halloran M" first="M Elizabeth" last="Halloran">M Elizabeth Halloran</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Longini, Ira M" sort="Longini, Ira M" uniqKey="Longini I" first="Ira M" last="Longini">Ira M. Longini</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. a.vespignani@northeastern.edu ilongini@ufl.edu.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vespignani, Alessandro" sort="Vespignani, Alessandro" uniqKey="Vespignani A" first="Alessandro" last="Vespignani">Alessandro Vespignani</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA. a.vespignani@northeastern.edu ilongini@ufl.edu.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Science (New York, N.Y.)</title><idno type="eISSN">1095-9203</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated based on internationally reported cases, and shows that at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in Mainland China, but has a more marked effect at the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32144116</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>07</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1095-9203</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Mar</Month><Day>06</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Science (New York, N.Y.)</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Science</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">eaba9757</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1126/science.aba9757</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated based on internationally reported cases, and shows that at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in Mainland China, but has a more marked effect at the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2020, American Association for the Advancement of Science.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chinazzi</LastName><ForeName>Matteo</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5955-1929</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Davis</LastName><ForeName>Jessica T</ForeName><Initials>JT</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ajelli</LastName><ForeName>Marco</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gioannini</LastName><ForeName>Corrado</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Litvinova</LastName><ForeName>Maria</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6393-1943</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Merler</LastName><ForeName>Stefano</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Pastore Y Piontti</LastName><ForeName>Ana</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Mu</LastName><ForeName>Kunpeng</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Rossi</LastName><ForeName>Luca</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sun</LastName><ForeName>Kaiyuan</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1753-9884</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Fogarty International Center, NIH, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Viboud</LastName><ForeName>Cécile</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3243-4711</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Fogarty International Center, NIH, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Xiong</LastName><ForeName>Xinyue</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yu</LastName><ForeName>Hongjie</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6335-5648</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Halloran</LastName><ForeName>M Elizabeth</ForeName><Initials>ME</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3127-1757</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Longini</LastName><ForeName>Ira M</ForeName><Initials>IM</Initials><Suffix>Jr</Suffix><Identifier Source="ORCID">http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2780-9382</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. a.vespignani@northeastern.edu ilongini@ufl.edu.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Vespignani</LastName><ForeName>Alessandro</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3419-4205</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA. a.vespignani@northeastern.edu ilongini@ufl.edu.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>06</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>Science</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>0404511</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0036-8075</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>01</Month><Day>20</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate 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