Estimating the reproductive number and the outbreak size of Novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using mathematical model in Republic of Korea.
Identifieur interne : 000604 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000603; suivant : 000605Estimating the reproductive number and the outbreak size of Novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using mathematical model in Republic of Korea.
Auteurs : Sunhwa Choi Choi ; Moran KiSource :
- Epidemiology and health [ 2092-7193 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Since the first novel coronavirus disease(COVID-19) patient was diagnosed on 20-Jan, about 30 patients were diagnosed in Korea until 17-Feb. However, 5,298 more patient were confirmed until 4-Mar. The purpose is to estimate and evaluate the effectiveness of preventive measures using mathematical modeling.
DOI: 10.4178/epih.e2020011
PubMed: 32164053
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Estimating the reproductive number and the outbreak size of Novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using mathematical model in Republic of Korea.</title><author><name sortKey="Choi, Sunhwa Choi" sort="Choi, Sunhwa Choi" uniqKey="Choi S" first="Sunhwa Choi" last="Choi">Sunhwa Choi Choi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea, Goyang, Korea.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ki, Moran" sort="Ki, Moran" uniqKey="Ki M" first="Moran" last="Ki">Moran Ki</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea, Goyang, Korea.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32164053</idno><idno type="pmid">32164053</idno><idno type="doi">10.4178/epih.e2020011</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000604</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000604</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Estimating the reproductive number and the outbreak size of Novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using mathematical model in Republic of Korea.</title><author><name sortKey="Choi, Sunhwa Choi" sort="Choi, Sunhwa Choi" uniqKey="Choi S" first="Sunhwa Choi" last="Choi">Sunhwa Choi Choi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea, Goyang, Korea.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ki, Moran" sort="Ki, Moran" uniqKey="Ki M" first="Moran" last="Ki">Moran Ki</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea, Goyang, Korea.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Epidemiology and health</title><idno type="eISSN">2092-7193</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Since the first novel coronavirus disease(COVID-19) patient was diagnosed on 20-Jan, about 30 patients were diagnosed in Korea until 17-Feb. However, 5,298 more patient were confirmed until 4-Mar. The purpose is to estimate and evaluate the effectiveness of preventive measures using mathematical modeling.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32164053</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>12</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2092-7193</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Mar</Month><Day>12</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Epidemiology and health</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Epidemiol Health</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Estimating the reproductive number and the outbreak size of Novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using mathematical model in Republic of Korea.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>e2020011</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.4178/epih.e2020011</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="Objectives" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">Since the first novel coronavirus disease(COVID-19) patient was diagnosed on 20-Jan, about 30 patients were diagnosed in Korea until 17-Feb. However, 5,298 more patient were confirmed until 4-Mar. The purpose is to estimate and evaluate the effectiveness of preventive measures using mathematical modeling.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Methods" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">Deterministic mathematical model(SEIHR) has been established to suit the Korean outbreak. The number of confirmed patients in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province(Daegu/NGP), the main area of outbreak, were used. The first patient's symptom onset date was assumed on 22-Jan. We estimate the reproduction number(R), and the effect of preventive measures, assuming that the effect has been shown from 29-Feb. or 5-Mar.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Results" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">The estimated R in Hubei Province was 4.2655, while the estimated initial R in Korea was 0.5555, but later in Daegu/NGP, the value was between 3.4721 and 3.5428. When the transmission period decreases from 4 days to 2 days, the outbreak finished early, but the peak of the epidemic has increased, and the total number of patients has not changed much. If transmission rate decreases about 90% or 99%, the outbreak finished early, and the size of the peak and the total number of patients also decreased.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Conclusion" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">To early end of the COVID-19 epidemic, efforts to reduce the spread of the virus such as social distancing and mask wearing are absolutely crucial with the participation of the public, along with the policy of reducing the transmission period by finding and isolating patients as quickly as possible through efforts by the quarantine authorities.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Choi</LastName><ForeName>Sunhwa Choi</ForeName><Initials>SC</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea, Goyang, Korea.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ki</LastName><ForeName>Moran</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea, Goyang, Korea.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>12</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Korea (South)</Country><MedlineTA>Epidemiol Health</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101519472</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2092-7193</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Epidemiology</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Mathematical model</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Outbreak</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Reproductive number</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Republic of Korea</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>09</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>12</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>13</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>14</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>14</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>aheadofprint</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32164053</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">epih.e2020011</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.4178/epih.e2020011</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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