The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemics in the final phase of the current outbreak in China.
Identifieur interne : 000492 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000491; suivant : 000493The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemics in the final phase of the current outbreak in China.
Auteurs : Biao Tang ; Fan Xia ; Sanyi Tang ; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi ; Qian Li ; Xiaodan Sun ; Juhua Liang ; Yanni Xiao ; Jianhong WuSource :
- International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases [ 1878-3511 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Since January 23rd 2020, stringent measures for controlling the novel coronavirus epidemics have been gradually enforced and strengthened in mainland China. The detection and diagnosis have been improved as well. However, the daily reported cases staying in a high level make the epidemics trend prediction difficult.
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.018
PubMed: 32171948
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemics in the final phase of the current outbreak in China.</title><author><name sortKey="Tang, Biao" sort="Tang, Biao" uniqKey="Tang B" first="Biao" last="Tang">Biao Tang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, People's Republic of China; Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xia, Fan" sort="Xia, Fan" uniqKey="Xia F" first="Fan" last="Xia">Fan Xia</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, People's Republic of China; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tang, Sanyi" sort="Tang, Sanyi" uniqKey="Tang S" first="Sanyi" last="Tang">Sanyi Tang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710119, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi" sort="Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi" uniqKey="Bragazzi N" first="Nicola Luigi" last="Bragazzi">Nicola Luigi Bragazzi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Qian" sort="Li, Qian" uniqKey="Li Q" first="Qian" last="Li">Qian Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sun, Xiaodan" sort="Sun, Xiaodan" uniqKey="Sun X" first="Xiaodan" last="Sun">Xiaodan Sun</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, People's Republic of China; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liang, Juhua" sort="Liang, Juhua" uniqKey="Liang J" first="Juhua" last="Liang">Juhua Liang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710119, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xiao, Yanni" sort="Xiao, Yanni" uniqKey="Xiao Y" first="Yanni" last="Xiao">Yanni Xiao</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, People's Republic of China; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: yxiao@mail.xjtu.edu.cn.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Jianhong" sort="Wu, Jianhong" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Jianhong" last="Wu">Jianhong Wu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, People's Republic of China; Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada; Fields-CQAM Laboratory of Mathematics for Public Health, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada. Electronic address: wujh@yorku.ca.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32171948</idno><idno type="pmid">32171948</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.018</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000492</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000492</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemics in the final phase of the current outbreak in China.</title><author><name sortKey="Tang, Biao" sort="Tang, Biao" uniqKey="Tang B" first="Biao" last="Tang">Biao Tang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, People's Republic of China; Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xia, Fan" sort="Xia, Fan" uniqKey="Xia F" first="Fan" last="Xia">Fan Xia</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, People's Republic of China; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tang, Sanyi" sort="Tang, Sanyi" uniqKey="Tang S" first="Sanyi" last="Tang">Sanyi Tang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710119, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi" sort="Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi" uniqKey="Bragazzi N" first="Nicola Luigi" last="Bragazzi">Nicola Luigi Bragazzi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Qian" sort="Li, Qian" uniqKey="Li Q" first="Qian" last="Li">Qian Li</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sun, Xiaodan" sort="Sun, Xiaodan" uniqKey="Sun X" first="Xiaodan" last="Sun">Xiaodan Sun</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, People's Republic of China; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liang, Juhua" sort="Liang, Juhua" uniqKey="Liang J" first="Juhua" last="Liang">Juhua Liang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710119, People's Republic of China.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xiao, Yanni" sort="Xiao, Yanni" uniqKey="Xiao Y" first="Yanni" last="Xiao">Yanni Xiao</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, People's Republic of China; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: yxiao@mail.xjtu.edu.cn.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Jianhong" sort="Wu, Jianhong" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Jianhong" last="Wu">Jianhong Wu</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, People's Republic of China; Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada; Fields-CQAM Laboratory of Mathematics for Public Health, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada. Electronic address: wujh@yorku.ca.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases</title><idno type="eISSN">1878-3511</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Since January 23rd 2020, stringent measures for controlling the novel coronavirus epidemics have been gradually enforced and strengthened in mainland China. The detection and diagnosis have been improved as well. However, the daily reported cases staying in a high level make the epidemics trend prediction difficult.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32171948</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>15</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1878-3511</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Mar</Month><Day>11</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Int. J. Infect. Dis.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemics in the final phase of the current outbreak in China.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S1201-9712(20)30137-5</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.018</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="OBJECTIVES" NlmCategory="OBJECTIVE">Since January 23rd 2020, stringent measures for controlling the novel coronavirus epidemics have been gradually enforced and strengthened in mainland China. The detection and diagnosis have been improved as well. However, the daily reported cases staying in a high level make the epidemics trend prediction difficult.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">Since the traditional SEIR model does not evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies, a novel model in line with the current epidemics process and control measures was proposed, utilizing multisource datasets including cumulative number of reported, death, quarantined and suspected cases.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">Results show that the trend of the epidemics mainly depends on quarantined and suspected cases. The predicted cumulative numbers of quarantined and suspected cases nearly reached static states and their inflection points have already been achieved, with the epidemics peak coming soon. The estimated effective reproduction numbers using model-free and model-based methods are decreasing, as well as new infections, while new reported cases are increasing. Most infected cases have been quarantined or put in suspected class, which has been ignored in existing models.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">The uncertainty analyses reveal that the epidemics is still uncertain and it is important to continue enhancing the quarantine and isolation strategy and improving the detection rate in mainland China.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Ltd.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Tang</LastName><ForeName>Biao</ForeName><Initials>B</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, People's Republic of China; Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Xia</LastName><ForeName>Fan</ForeName><Initials>F</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, People's Republic of China; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Tang</LastName><ForeName>Sanyi</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710119, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bragazzi</LastName><ForeName>Nicola Luigi</ForeName><Initials>NL</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Li</LastName><ForeName>Qian</ForeName><Initials>Q</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sun</LastName><ForeName>Xiaodan</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, People's Republic of China; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Liang</LastName><ForeName>Juhua</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, 710119, People's Republic of China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Xiao</LastName><ForeName>Yanni</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, People's Republic of China; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: yxiao@mail.xjtu.edu.cn.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wu</LastName><ForeName>Jianhong</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The Interdisplinary Research Center for Mathematics and Life Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, People's Republic of China; Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada; Fields-CQAM Laboratory of Mathematics for Public Health, York University, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada. Electronic address: wujh@yorku.ca.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>11</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Canada</Country><MedlineTA>Int J Infect Dis</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>9610933</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1201-9712</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Mathematical model</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Multi-source data</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">SEIR model</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>18</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>04</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>06</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>16</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>17</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>17</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>aheadofprint</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32171948</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S1201-9712(20)30137-5</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.018</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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