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Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis.

Identifieur interne : 000759 ( PubMed/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000758; suivant : 000760

Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis.

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Annals of translational medicine [ 2305-5839 ] ; 2020.

RBID : pubmed:32175421

Abstract

An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2], named COVID-19, hit a major city of China, Wuhan in December 2019 and subsequently spread to other provinces/regions of China and overseas. Several studies have been done to estimate the basic reproduction number in the early phase of this outbreak, yet there are no reliable estimates of case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 to date.

DOI: 10.21037/atm.2020.02.66
PubMed: 32175421

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<author><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Yang, Shu" sort="Yang, Shu" uniqKey="Yang S" first="Shu" last="Yang">Shu Yang</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Yu, Xuan" sort="Yu, Xuan" uniqKey="Yu X" first="Xuan" last="Yu">Xuan Yu</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Zhou, Qi" sort="Zhou, Qi" uniqKey="Zhou Q" first="Qi" last="Zhou">Qi Zhou</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Feng, Xixi" sort="Feng, Xixi" uniqKey="Feng X" first="Xixi" last="Feng">Xixi Feng</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Wang, Xiaohui" sort="Wang, Xiaohui" uniqKey="Wang X" first="Xiaohui" last="Wang">Xiaohui Wang</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Li, Weiguo" sort="Li, Weiguo" uniqKey="Li W" first="Weiguo" last="Li">Weiguo Li</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Liu, Enmei" sort="Liu, Enmei" uniqKey="Liu E" first="Enmei" last="Liu">Enmei Liu</name>
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<author><name sortKey="Chen, Ju" sort="Chen, Ju" uniqKey="Chen J" first="Ju" last="Chen">Ju Chen</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137</wicri:regionArea>
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<author><name sortKey="Chen, Yaolong" sort="Chen, Yaolong" uniqKey="Chen Y" first="Yaolong" last="Chen">Yaolong Chen</name>
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<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000</wicri:regionArea>
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<author><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
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<imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2], named COVID-19, hit a major city of China, Wuhan in December 2019 and subsequently spread to other provinces/regions of China and overseas. Several studies have been done to estimate the basic reproduction number in the early phase of this outbreak, yet there are no reliable estimates of case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 to date.</div>
</front>
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<pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32175421</PMID>
<DateRevised><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>03</Month>
<Day>19</Day>
</DateRevised>
<Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">2305-5839</ISSN>
<JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>8</Volume>
<Issue>4</Issue>
<PubDate><Year>2020</Year>
<Month>Feb</Month>
</PubDate>
</JournalIssue>
<Title>Annals of translational medicine</Title>
<ISOAbbreviation>Ann Transl Med</ISOAbbreviation>
</Journal>
<ArticleTitle>Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis.</ArticleTitle>
<Pagination><MedlinePgn>128</MedlinePgn>
</Pagination>
<ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.21037/atm.2020.02.66</ELocationID>
<Abstract><AbstractText Label="Background" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2], named COVID-19, hit a major city of China, Wuhan in December 2019 and subsequently spread to other provinces/regions of China and overseas. Several studies have been done to estimate the basic reproduction number in the early phase of this outbreak, yet there are no reliable estimates of case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 to date.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="Methods" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">In this study, we used a purely data-driven statistical method to estimate the CFR in the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak. Daily numbers of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths were collected from January 10 to February 3, 2020 and divided into three clusters: Wuhan city, other cities of Hubei province, and other provinces of mainland China. Simple linear regression model was applied to estimate the CFR from each cluster.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="Results" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">We estimated that CFR during the first weeks of the epidemic ranges from 0.15% (95% CI: 0.12-0.18%) in mainland China excluding Hubei through 1.41% (95% CI: 1.38-1.45%) in Hubei province excluding the city of Wuhan to 5.25% (95% CI: 4.98-5.51%) in Wuhan.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="Conclusions" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">Our early estimates suggest that the CFR of COVID-19 is lower than the previous coronavirus epidemics caused by SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV).</AbstractText>
<CopyrightInformation>2020 Annals of Translational Medicine. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation>
</Abstract>
<AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yang</LastName>
<ForeName>Shu</ForeName>
<Initials>S</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Digital Institute of Medicine, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cao</LastName>
<ForeName>Peihua</ForeName>
<Initials>P</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Clinical Research Center, Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510280, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Du</LastName>
<ForeName>Peipei</ForeName>
<Initials>P</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu 610500, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wu</LastName>
<ForeName>Ziting</ForeName>
<Initials>Z</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhuang</LastName>
<ForeName>Zian</ForeName>
<Initials>Z</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
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<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yang</LastName>
<ForeName>Lin</ForeName>
<Initials>L</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yu</LastName>
<ForeName>Xuan</ForeName>
<Initials>X</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.</Affiliation>
</AffiliationInfo>
</Author>
<Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhou</LastName>
<ForeName>Qi</ForeName>
<Initials>Q</Initials>
<AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>The First Clinical Medical College of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.</Affiliation>
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<affiliations><list><country><li>République populaire de Chine</li>
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<name sortKey="Chen, Yaolong" sort="Chen, Yaolong" uniqKey="Chen Y" first="Yaolong" last="Chen">Yaolong Chen</name>
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Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis.

Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis.

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