Will the Third Wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Really Come in Korea?
Identifieur interne : 000536 ( Pmc/Corpus ); précédent : 000535; suivant : 000537Will the Third Wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Really Come in Korea?
Auteurs : Jin-Hong YooSource :
- Journal of Korean Medical Science [ 1011-8934 ] ; 2020.
Url:
DOI: 10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e110
PubMed: 32174068
PubMed Central: 7073318
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Will the Third Wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Really Come in Korea?</title><author><name sortKey="Yoo, Jin Hong" sort="Yoo, Jin Hong" uniqKey="Yoo J" first="Jin-Hong" last="Yoo">Jin-Hong Yoo</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A1">Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul,<country>Korea</country>.</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, Bucheon St. Mary's Hospital, Bucheon,<country>Korea</country>.</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">32174068</idno><idno type="pmc">7073318</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7073318</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7073318</idno><idno type="doi">10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e110</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000536</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000536</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Will the Third Wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Really Come in Korea?</title><author><name sortKey="Yoo, Jin Hong" sort="Yoo, Jin Hong" uniqKey="Yoo J" first="Jin-Hong" last="Yoo">Jin-Hong Yoo</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A1">Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul,<country>Korea</country>.</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A2">Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, Bucheon St. Mary's Hospital, Bucheon,<country>Korea</country>.</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of Korean Medical Science</title><idno type="ISSN">1011-8934</idno><idno type="eISSN">1598-6357</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Tang, X" uniqKey="Tang X">X Tang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, C" uniqKey="Wu C">C Wu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Li, X" uniqKey="Li X">X Li</name></author><author><name sortKey="Song, Y" uniqKey="Song Y">Y Song</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yao, X" uniqKey="Yao X">X Yao</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, X" uniqKey="Wu X">X Wu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><pmc article-type="brief-report"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">J Korean Med Sci</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">J. Korean Med. Sci</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">JKMS</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Journal of Korean Medical Science</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1011-8934</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1598-6357</issn><publisher><publisher-name>The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">32174068</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7073318</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e110</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Opinion</subject><subj-group subj-group-type="subheading"><subject>Infectious Diseases, Microbiology & Parasitology</subject></subj-group></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Will the Third Wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Really Come in Korea?</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="true">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2611-3399</contrib-id><name><surname>Yoo</surname><given-names>Jin-Hong</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A1">1</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="A2">2</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="A1"><label>1</label>Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul,<country>Korea</country>.</aff><aff id="A2"><label>2</label>Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, Bucheon St. Mary's Hospital, Bucheon,<country>Korea</country>.</aff><author-notes><corresp>Address for Correspondence: Jin-Hong Yoo, MD, PhD. Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, Bucheon St. Mary's Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, 327 Sosa-ro, Wonmi-gu, Bucheon 14647, Republic of Korea. <email>jhyoo@catholic.ac.kr</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>09</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="collection"><day>16</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><volume>35</volume><issue>10</issue><elocation-id>e110</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>08</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>08</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2020 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder>The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences</copyright-holder><license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/"><license-p>This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/</ext-link>) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.</license-p></license></permissions></article-meta></front><body><p>I personally predicted that about 10,000 people would be diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) around March 10, based on a regression calculation that was estimated from last week's trend provided by the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.<xref rid="B1" ref-type="bibr">1</xref> However, since March 5, the number of confirmed patients began to slow down slightly, and as of March 8, the inclination is clearly slowing down. If this new trend continues at this pace, I hope that the number of confirmed cases could decline by next week. However, will this plague go away as easily as we would want it to be? If the third tide comes back, all hope is gone and the vicious cycle begins again.</p><p>At this point, I would like to point out what conditions must be met for the third wave to come.</p><p>1) A brand new mutant virus: No matter how much it rampages through the whole country, the disease eventually dies out because the herd immunity will be established someday. However, what if the coronavirus that comes back is not the same as the previous one and, therefore, we are not ready for the immunity against it? Nightmares begin again. It's even worse.</p><p>What's really disturbing is that there is really a report about new mutations actually emerging.<xref rid="B2" ref-type="bibr">2</xref> I don't know how much reliable this report is, but in any case, it is clear that mutants have appeared.</p><p>2) Another outbreak from other than religious or political rally, i.e., school or long-term care facility: As we have seen clearly in this situation, the plague explodes when two conditions are met: a close contact group in an isolated/closed space. Although the rally of religion, politics, and fellowship is now banned, the possibility of another outbreak is minimized, but there is still a trigger. I think there are two main types. One is an outbreak from a school, the other is from a nursing home or a long-term care facility (I will exclude a cruise ship because at least it can be quarantined at sea). The former will not need any further explanation and, above all, the latter is more concerned. In the former case, healthy young people are the main members, but in the latter the people have lots of handicaps such as old age and underlying chronic diseases. Rather, even now, although small and intermittent, news of a few outbreaks at a nursing home or long-term care facilities is being heard. What if this explodes on a massive scale?</p><p>3) Import from a foreign country: As mentioned earlier, mutations have been reported. Therefore, if a new outbreak due to new mutants begins, I think it is likely to be in China. There is no objection to the fact that restrictions on immigration from China are now meaningless given the current domestic situation of community infections in Korea, although, to be honest, I do not completely agree with the opinion. However, if a new wave by mutants begins in China, we will have to seriously discuss the restriction of entry from China again. As we have already been greatly affected by this plague, I think we should ban immigration from China to prevent further spread at that time.</p><p>Therefore, the countermeasure is naturally conceived. Although the emergence of new mutations cannot be prevented, it is necessary to prepare for the possibility of the big outbreaks in schools and nursing homes, and to re-consider restrictions on entry from China.</p></body><back><fn-group><fn fn-type="COI-statement"><p><bold>Disclosure:</bold> The author has no potential conflicts of interest to disclose.</p></fn></fn-group><ref-list><ref id="B1"><label>1</label><element-citation publication-type="webpage"><collab>Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</collab><source>Current statistics of COVID-19 in Korea</source><date-in-citation content-type="updated">Updated 2020</date-in-citation><date-in-citation content-type="access-date">Accessed March 8, 2020</date-in-citation><comment><ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="KoreanCentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention.CurrentstatisticsofCOVID-19inKorea.http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/bdBoardList_Real.do?brdId=1&brdGubun=13&ncvContSeq=&contSeq=&board_id=&gubun=">http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/bdBoardList_Real.do?brdId=1&brdGubun=13&ncvContSeq=&contSeq=&board_id=&gubun=</ext-link></comment></element-citation></ref><ref id="B2"><label>2</label><element-citation publication-type="journal"><person-group person-group-type="author"><name><surname>Tang</surname><given-names>X</given-names></name><name><surname>Wu</surname><given-names>C</given-names></name><name><surname>Li</surname><given-names>X</given-names></name><name><surname>Song</surname><given-names>Y</given-names></name><name><surname>Yao</surname><given-names>X</given-names></name><name><surname>Wu</surname><given-names>X</given-names></name><etal></etal></person-group><article-title>On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2</article-title><source>Natl Sci Rev</source><year>2020</year><pub-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1093/nsr/nwaa036</pub-id></element-citation></ref></ref-list></back></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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