Serveur d'exploration Covid (26 mars)

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Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

Identifieur interne : 000172 ( Pmc/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000171; suivant : 000173

Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

Auteurs : Tetsuro Kobayashi ; Sung-Mok Jung ; Natalie M. Linton ; Ryo Kinoshita ; Katsuma Hayashi ; Takeshi Miyama ; Asami Anzai ; Yichi Yang ; Baoyin Yuan ; Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov ; Ayako Suzuki ; Hiroshi Nishiura [Japon]

Source :

RBID : PMC:7073841

Abstract

To understand the severity of infection for a given disease, it is common epidemiological practice to estimate the case fatality risk, defined as the risk of death among cases. However, there are three technical obstacles that should be addressed to appropriately measure this risk. First, division of the cumulative number of deaths by that of cases tends to underestimate the actual risk because deaths that will occur have not yet observed, and so the delay in time from illness onset to death must be addressed. Second, the observed dataset of reported cases represents only a proportion of all infected individuals and there can be a substantial number of asymptomatic and mildly infected individuals who are never diagnosed. Third, ascertainment bias and risk of death among all those infected would be smaller when estimated using shorter virus detection windows and less sensitive diagnostic laboratory tests. In the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, health authorities must cope with the uncertainty in the risk of death from COVID-19, and high-risk individuals should be identified using approaches that can address the abovementioned three problems. Although COVID-19 involves mostly mild infections among the majority of the general population, the risk of death among young adults is higher than that of seasonal influenza, and elderly with underlying comorbidities require additional care.


Url:
DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020580
PubMed: 32098019
PubMed Central: 7073841


Affiliations:


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PMC:7073841

Le document en format XML

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<name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name>
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<name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name>
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<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(R.K.);
<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(K.H.);
<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(A.A.);
<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(Y.Y.);
<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email>
(B.Y.);
<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(A.R.A.);
<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email>
(A.S.)</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Miyama, Takeshi" sort="Miyama, Takeshi" uniqKey="Miyama T" first="Takeshi" last="Miyama">Takeshi Miyama</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="af2-jcm-09-00580">Osaka Institute of Public Health, Nakamichi 1-3-69, Higashinari, Osaka 537-0025, Japan;
<email>takeshi.j.miyama@gmail.com</email>
</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Anzai, Asami" sort="Anzai, Asami" uniqKey="Anzai A" first="Asami" last="Anzai">Asami Anzai</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;
<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email>
(T.K.);
<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(S.-m.J.);
<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(N.M.L.);
<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(R.K.);
<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(K.H.);
<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(A.A.);
<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(Y.Y.);
<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email>
(B.Y.);
<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(A.R.A.);
<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email>
(A.S.)</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;
<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email>
(T.K.);
<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(S.-m.J.);
<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(N.M.L.);
<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(R.K.);
<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(K.H.);
<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(A.A.);
<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(Y.Y.);
<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email>
(B.Y.);
<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(A.R.A.);
<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email>
(A.S.)</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;
<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email>
(T.K.);
<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(S.-m.J.);
<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(N.M.L.);
<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(R.K.);
<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(K.H.);
<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(A.A.);
<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(Y.Y.);
<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email>
(B.Y.);
<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(A.R.A.);
<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email>
(A.S.)</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R." last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;
<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email>
(T.K.);
<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(S.-m.J.);
<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(N.M.L.);
<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(R.K.);
<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(K.H.);
<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(A.A.);
<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(Y.Y.);
<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email>
(B.Y.);
<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(A.R.A.);
<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email>
(A.S.)</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Suzuki, Ayako" sort="Suzuki, Ayako" uniqKey="Suzuki A" first="Ayako" last="Suzuki">Ayako Suzuki</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;
<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email>
(T.K.);
<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(S.-m.J.);
<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(N.M.L.);
<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(R.K.);
<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(K.H.);
<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(A.A.);
<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(Y.Y.);
<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email>
(B.Y.);
<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(A.R.A.);
<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email>
(A.S.)</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name>
<affiliation>
<nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;
<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email>
(T.K.);
<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(S.-m.J.);
<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(N.M.L.);
<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(R.K.);
<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(K.H.);
<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(A.A.);
<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(Y.Y.);
<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email>
(B.Y.);
<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(A.R.A.);
<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email>
(A.S.)</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="af3-jcm-09-00580">Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Saitama 332-0012</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series>
<title level="j">Journal of Clinical Medicine</title>
<idno type="eISSN">2077-0383</idno>
<imprint>
<date when="2020">2020</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc>
<textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>To understand the severity of infection for a given disease, it is common epidemiological practice to estimate the case fatality risk, defined as the risk of death among cases. However, there are three technical obstacles that should be addressed to appropriately measure this risk. First, division of the cumulative number of deaths by that of cases tends to underestimate the actual risk because deaths that will occur have not yet observed, and so the delay in time from illness onset to death must be addressed. Second, the observed dataset of reported cases represents only a proportion of all infected individuals and there can be a substantial number of asymptomatic and mildly infected individuals who are never diagnosed. Third, ascertainment bias and risk of death among all those infected would be smaller when estimated using shorter virus detection windows and less sensitive diagnostic laboratory tests. In the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, health authorities must cope with the uncertainty in the risk of death from COVID-19, and high-risk individuals should be identified using approaches that can address the abovementioned three problems. Although COVID-19 involves mostly mild infections among the majority of the general population, the risk of death among young adults is higher than that of seasonal influenza, and elderly with underlying comorbidities require additional care.</p>
</div>
</front>
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<name sortKey="Xu, B" uniqKey="Xu B">B. Xu</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct>
<analytic>
<author>
<name sortKey="Linton, N M" uniqKey="Linton N">N.M. Linton</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Kobayashi, T" uniqKey="Kobayashi T">T. Kobayashi</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Yang, Y" uniqKey="Yang Y">Y. Yang</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Hayashi, K" uniqKey="Hayashi K">K. Hayashi</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, A R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A">A.R. Akhmetzhanov</name>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Jung, S" uniqKey="Jung S">S. Jung</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
</listBibl>
</div1>
</back>
</TEI>
<pmc article-type="editorial">
<pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">J Clin Med</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">J Clin Med</journal-id>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">jcm</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Journal of Clinical Medicine</journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2077-0383</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>MDPI</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmid">32098019</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7073841</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.3390/jcm9020580</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">jcm-09-00580</article-id>
<article-categories>
<subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Editorial</subject>
</subj-group>
</article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Kobayashi</surname>
<given-names>Tetsuro</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-jcm-09-00580">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="true">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0787-4515</contrib-id>
<name>
<surname>Jung</surname>
<given-names>Sung-mok</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-jcm-09-00580">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Linton</surname>
<given-names>Natalie M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-jcm-09-00580">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="true">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0116-4598</contrib-id>
<name>
<surname>Kinoshita</surname>
<given-names>Ryo</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-jcm-09-00580">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Hayashi</surname>
<given-names>Katsuma</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-jcm-09-00580">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Miyama</surname>
<given-names>Takeshi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af2-jcm-09-00580">2</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Anzai</surname>
<given-names>Asami</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-jcm-09-00580">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Yang</surname>
<given-names>Yichi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-jcm-09-00580">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Yuan</surname>
<given-names>Baoyin</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-jcm-09-00580">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="true">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3269-7351</contrib-id>
<name>
<surname>Akhmetzhanov</surname>
<given-names>Andrei R.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-jcm-09-00580">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Suzuki</surname>
<given-names>Ayako</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-jcm-09-00580">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname>Nishiura</surname>
<given-names>Hiroshi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-jcm-09-00580">1</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="af3-jcm-09-00580">3</xref>
<xref rid="c1-jcm-09-00580" ref-type="corresp">*</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="af1-jcm-09-00580">
<label>1</label>
Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;
<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email>
(T.K.);
<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(S.-m.J.);
<email>natalie.linton@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(N.M.L.);
<email>ryokinoshita@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(R.K.);
<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(K.H.);
<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(A.A.);
<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(Y.Y.);
<email>baoyinyuan@outlook.com</email>
(B.Y.);
<email>akhmetzhanov@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(A.R.A.);
<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email>
(A.S.)</aff>
<aff id="af2-jcm-09-00580">
<label>2</label>
Osaka Institute of Public Health, Nakamichi 1-3-69, Higashinari, Osaka 537-0025, Japan;
<email>takeshi.j.miyama@gmail.com</email>
</aff>
<aff id="af3-jcm-09-00580">
<label>3</label>
Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan</aff>
<author-notes>
<corresp id="c1-jcm-09-00580">
<label>*</label>
Correspondence:
<email>nishiurah@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
; Tel.: +81-11-706-5066</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>21</day>
<month>2</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="collection">
<month>2</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>9</volume>
<issue>2</issue>
<elocation-id>580</elocation-id>
<history>
<date date-type="received">
<day>15</day>
<month>2</month>
<year>2020</year>
</date>
<date date-type="accepted">
<day>17</day>
<month>2</month>
<year>2020</year>
</date>
</history>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>© 2020 by the authors.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2020</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (
<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link>
).</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract>
<p>To understand the severity of infection for a given disease, it is common epidemiological practice to estimate the case fatality risk, defined as the risk of death among cases. However, there are three technical obstacles that should be addressed to appropriately measure this risk. First, division of the cumulative number of deaths by that of cases tends to underestimate the actual risk because deaths that will occur have not yet observed, and so the delay in time from illness onset to death must be addressed. Second, the observed dataset of reported cases represents only a proportion of all infected individuals and there can be a substantial number of asymptomatic and mildly infected individuals who are never diagnosed. Third, ascertainment bias and risk of death among all those infected would be smaller when estimated using shorter virus detection windows and less sensitive diagnostic laboratory tests. In the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, health authorities must cope with the uncertainty in the risk of death from COVID-19, and high-risk individuals should be identified using approaches that can address the abovementioned three problems. Although COVID-19 involves mostly mild infections among the majority of the general population, the risk of death among young adults is higher than that of seasonal influenza, and elderly with underlying comorbidities require additional care.</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd>fatality</kwd>
<kwd>virulence</kwd>
<kwd>virus</kwd>
<kwd>statistical estimation</kwd>
<kwd>emerging infectious diseases</kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<floats-group>
<table-wrap id="jcm-09-00580-t001" orientation="portrait" position="float">
<object-id pub-id-type="pii">jcm-09-00580-t001_Table 1</object-id>
<label>Table 1</label>
<caption>
<p>Confirmed case fatality risk (cCFR) with and without adjustment of the time from illness onset to death.</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th align="center" valign="top" style="border-top:solid thin;border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Locations</th>
<th align="center" valign="top" style="border-top:solid thin;border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Unadjusted cCFR as of 14 February 2020 [
<xref rid="B1-jcm-09-00580" ref-type="bibr">1</xref>
]</th>
<th align="center" valign="top" style="border-top:solid thin;border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Adjusted cCFR [
<xref rid="B6-jcm-09-00580" ref-type="bibr">6</xref>
]</th>
<th align="center" valign="top" style="border-top:solid thin;border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">95% Confidence Intervals of cCFR [
<xref rid="B6-jcm-09-00580" ref-type="bibr">6</xref>
]</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Hubei</td>
<td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">2.5%</td>
<td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">18%</td>
<td align="center" valign="top" rowspan="1" colspan="1">11–81%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" valign="top" style="border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Outside mainland China</td>
<td align="center" valign="top" style="border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.4%</td>
<td align="center" valign="top" style="border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1–5%</td>
<td align="center" valign="top" style="border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1–85%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</table-wrap>
<table-wrap id="jcm-09-00580-t002" orientation="portrait" position="float">
<object-id pub-id-type="pii">jcm-09-00580-t002_Table 2</object-id>
<label>Table 2</label>
<caption>
<p>Ascertainment rate and infection fatality risk estimates estimated from Japanese evacuees from Wuhan City, China.</p>
</caption>
<table frame="hsides" rules="groups">
<thead>
<tr>
<th rowspan="3" align="center" valign="middle" style="border-top:solid thin;border-bottom:solid thin" colspan="1">Sensitivity</th>
<th colspan="6" align="center" valign="middle" style="border-top:solid thin;border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1">Virus Detection Window (Days)</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th colspan="2" align="center" valign="middle" style="border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1">1 Day</th>
<th colspan="2" align="center" valign="middle" style="border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1">3 Days</th>
<th colspan="2" align="center" valign="middle" style="border-top:solid thin;border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1">5 Days</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th align="center" valign="middle" style="border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">
<italic>q</italic>
(%)</th>
<th align="center" valign="middle" style="border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">IFR (%)</th>
<th align="center" valign="middle" style="border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">
<italic>q</italic>
(%)</th>
<th align="center" valign="middle" style="border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">IFR (%)</th>
<th align="center" valign="middle" style="border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">
<italic>q</italic>
(%)</th>
<th align="center" valign="middle" style="border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">IFR (%)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">30%</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.2 (0.2, 0.3)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.02 (0.02, 0.02)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.7 (0.6, 0.8)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.06 (0.05, 0.07)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.1 (0.9, 1.4)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.10 (0.08, 0.12)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">50%</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.4 (0.3, 0.5)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.03 (0.03, 0.04)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.1 (0.9, 1.5)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.10 (0.08, 0.13)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.9 (1.5, 2.5)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.16 (0.13, 0.22)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" valign="middle" style="border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">80%</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle" style="border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.6 (0.4, 0.9)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle" style="border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.05 (0.04, 0.08)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle" style="border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">1.8 (1.3, 2.6)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle" style="border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.16 (0.12, 0.23)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle" style="border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">3.1 (2.2, 4.4)</td>
<td align="center" valign="middle" style="border-bottom:solid thin" rowspan="1" colspan="1">0.27 (0.19, 0.38)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table-wrap-foot>
<fn>
<p>95% confidence intervals, derived from profile likelihood, are shown in parenthesis. </p>
</fn>
</table-wrap-foot>
</table-wrap>
</floats-group>
</pmc>
<affiliations>
<list>
<country>
<li>Japon</li>
</country>
</list>
<tree>
<noCountry>
<name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R." last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name>
<name sortKey="Anzai, Asami" sort="Anzai, Asami" uniqKey="Anzai A" first="Asami" last="Anzai">Asami Anzai</name>
<name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name>
<name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name>
<name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name>
<name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name>
<name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M." last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name>
<name sortKey="Miyama, Takeshi" sort="Miyama, Takeshi" uniqKey="Miyama T" first="Takeshi" last="Miyama">Takeshi Miyama</name>
<name sortKey="Suzuki, Ayako" sort="Suzuki, Ayako" uniqKey="Suzuki A" first="Ayako" last="Suzuki">Ayako Suzuki</name>
<name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name>
<name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name>
</noCountry>
<country name="Japon">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

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