Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020
Identifieur interne : 000143 ( Pmc/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000142; suivant : 000144Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020
Auteurs : Kenji Mizumoto [Japon, États-Unis] ; Katsushi Kagaya [Japon] ; Alexander Zarebski [Royaume-Uni] ; Gerardo Chowell [États-Unis]Source :
- Eurosurveillance [ 1025-496X ] ; 2020.
Abstract
On 5 February 2020, in Yokohama, Japan, a cruise ship hosting 3,711 people underwent a 2-week quarantine after a former passenger was found with COVID-19 post-disembarking. As at 20 February, 634 persons on board tested positive for the causative virus. We conducted statistical modelling to derive the delay-adjusted asymptomatic proportion of infections, along with the infections’ timeline. The estimated asymptomatic proportion was 17.9% (95% credible interval (CrI): 15.5–20.2%). Most infections occurred before the quarantine start.
Url:
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180
PubMed: 32183930
PubMed Central: 7078829
Affiliations:
- Japon, Royaume-Uni, États-Unis
- Angleterre, Géorgie (États-Unis), Oxfordshire, Région du Kansai
- Kyoto, Oxford
- Université d'Oxford, Université de Kyoto
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Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Kyoto</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Kyoto</settlement><region type="prefecture">Région du Kansai</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kagaya, Katsushi" sort="Kagaya, Katsushi" uniqKey="Kagaya K" first="Katsushi" last="Kagaya">Katsushi Kagaya</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Kyoto</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Kyoto</settlement><region type="prefecture">Région du Kansai</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff4">Seto Marine Biological Laboratory, Field Science, Education and Reseach Center, Kyoto University, Shirahama-cho, Nishimuro-gun, Wakayama, Japan</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Seto Marine Biological Laboratory, Field Science, Education and Reseach Center, Kyoto University, Shirahama-cho, Nishimuro-gun, Wakayama</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Kyoto</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Kyoto</settlement><region type="prefecture">Région du Kansai</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zarebski, Alexander" sort="Zarebski, Alexander" uniqKey="Zarebski A" first="Alexander" last="Zarebski">Alexander Zarebski</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff5">Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="comté" nuts="2">Oxfordshire</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université d'Oxford</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Eurosurveillance</title><idno type="ISSN">1025-496X</idno><idno type="eISSN">1560-7917</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>On 5 February 2020, in Yokohama, Japan, a cruise ship hosting 3,711 people underwent a 2-week quarantine after a former passenger was found with COVID-19 post-disembarking. As at 20 February, 634 persons on board tested positive for the causative virus. We conducted statistical modelling to derive the delay-adjusted asymptomatic proportion of infections, along with the infections’ timeline. The estimated asymptomatic proportion was 17.9% (95% credible interval (CrI): 15.5–20.2%). Most infections occurred before the quarantine start.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Backer, Ja" uniqKey="Backer J">JA Backer</name></author><author><name sortKey="Klinkenberg, D" uniqKey="Klinkenberg D">D Klinkenberg</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J">J Wallinga</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Kroon, Fp" uniqKey="Kroon F">FP Kroon</name></author><author><name sortKey="Weiland, Ht" uniqKey="Weiland H">HT Weiland</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Loon, Am" uniqKey="Van Loon A">AM van Loon</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van Furth, R" uniqKey="Van Furth R">R van Furth</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Mbabazi, Wb" uniqKey="Mbabazi W">WB Mbabazi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nanyunja, M" uniqKey="Nanyunja M">M Nanyunja</name></author><author><name sortKey="Makumbi, I" uniqKey="Makumbi I">I Makumbi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Braka, F" uniqKey="Braka F">F Braka</name></author><author><name sortKey="Baliraine, Fn" uniqKey="Baliraine F">FN Baliraine</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kisakye, A" uniqKey="Kisakye A">A Kisakye</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Miura, F" uniqKey="Miura F">F Miura</name></author><author><name sortKey="Matsuyama, R" uniqKey="Matsuyama R">R Matsuyama</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, H" uniqKey="Nishiura H">H Nishiura</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Mizumoto, K" uniqKey="Mizumoto K">K Mizumoto</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kobayashi, T" uniqKey="Kobayashi T">T Kobayashi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G Chowell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hoehl, S" uniqKey="Hoehl S">S Hoehl</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rabenau, H" uniqKey="Rabenau H">H Rabenau</name></author><author><name sortKey="Berger, A" uniqKey="Berger A">A Berger</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kortenbusch, M" uniqKey="Kortenbusch M">M Kortenbusch</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cinatl, J" uniqKey="Cinatl J">J Cinatl</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bojkova, D" uniqKey="Bojkova D">D Bojkova</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Huang, C" uniqKey="Huang C">C Huang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Y" uniqKey="Wang Y">Y Wang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Li, X" uniqKey="Li X">X Li</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ren, L" uniqKey="Ren L">L Ren</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zhao, J" uniqKey="Zhao J">J Zhao</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hu, Y" uniqKey="Hu Y">Y Hu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zou, L" uniqKey="Zou L">L Zou</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ruan, F" uniqKey="Ruan F">F Ruan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Huang, M" uniqKey="Huang M">M Huang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Liang, L" uniqKey="Liang L">L Liang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Huang, H" uniqKey="Huang H">H Huang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hong, Z" uniqKey="Hong Z">Z Hong</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Euro Surveill</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Euro Surveill</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">eurosurveillance</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Eurosurveillance</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1025-496X</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1560-7917</issn><publisher><publisher-name>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">32183930</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7078829</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">2000180</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">2000180</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Rapid Communication</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="false">http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2748-6560</contrib-id><name><surname>Mizumoto</surname><given-names>Kenji</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>3</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Kagaya</surname><given-names>Katsushi</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>4</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Zarebski</surname><given-names>Alexander</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5"><sup>5</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Chowell</surname><given-names>Gerardo</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>3</sup></xref></contrib><aff id="aff1"><label>1</label>Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto University Yoshida-Nakaadachi-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan</aff><aff id="aff2"><label>2</label>Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan</aff><aff id="aff3"><label>3</label>Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States</aff><aff id="aff4"><label>4</label>Seto Marine Biological Laboratory, Field Science, Education and Reseach Center, Kyoto University, Shirahama-cho, Nishimuro-gun, Wakayama, Japan</aff><aff id="aff5"><label>5</label>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom</aff></contrib-group><author-notes><fn id="afn1"><p>Correspondence: Kenji Mizumoto (<email xlink:href="mizumoto.kenji.5a@kyoto-u.ac.jp">mizumoto.kenji.5a@kyoto-u.ac.jp</email>)</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>12</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><volume>25</volume><issue>10</issue><elocation-id>2000180</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>20</day><month>2</month><year>2020</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>12</day><month>3</month><year>2020</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>This article is copyright of the authors or their affiliated institutions, 2020.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder>The authors or their affiliated institutions</copyright-holder><license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><license-p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) Licence. You may share and adapt the material, but must give appropriate credit to the source, provide a link to the licence, and indicate if changes were made.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>On 5 February 2020, in Yokohama, Japan, a cruise ship hosting 3,711 people underwent a 2-week quarantine after a former passenger was found with COVID-19 post-disembarking. As at 20 February, 634 persons on board tested positive for the causative virus. We conducted statistical modelling to derive the delay-adjusted asymptomatic proportion of infections, along with the infections’ timeline. The estimated asymptomatic proportion was 17.9% (95% credible interval (CrI): 15.5–20.2%). Most infections occurred before the quarantine start.</p></abstract><kwd-group><title>Keywords: </title><kwd>corona</kwd><kwd>COVID-19</kwd><kwd>outbreak</kwd><kwd>Japan</kwd><kwd>asymptomatic</kwd><kwd>quarantine</kwd></kwd-group><custom-meta-group><custom-meta><meta-name>sequence</meta-name><meta-value>1</meta-value></custom-meta></custom-meta-group></article-meta></front></pmc><affiliations><list><country><li>Japon</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Angleterre</li><li>Géorgie (États-Unis)</li><li>Oxfordshire</li><li>Région du Kansai</li></region><settlement><li>Kyoto</li><li>Oxford</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université d'Oxford</li><li>Université de Kyoto</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Japon"><noRegion><name sortKey="Mizumoto, Kenji" sort="Mizumoto, Kenji" uniqKey="Mizumoto K" first="Kenji" last="Mizumoto">Kenji Mizumoto</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Kagaya, Katsushi" sort="Kagaya, Katsushi" uniqKey="Kagaya K" first="Katsushi" last="Kagaya">Katsushi Kagaya</name><name sortKey="Kagaya, Katsushi" sort="Kagaya, Katsushi" uniqKey="Kagaya K" first="Katsushi" last="Kagaya">Katsushi Kagaya</name><name sortKey="Mizumoto, Kenji" sort="Mizumoto, Kenji" uniqKey="Mizumoto K" first="Kenji" last="Mizumoto">Kenji Mizumoto</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Géorgie (États-Unis)"><name sortKey="Mizumoto, Kenji" sort="Mizumoto, Kenji" uniqKey="Mizumoto K" first="Kenji" last="Mizumoto">Kenji Mizumoto</name></region><name sortKey="Chowell, Gerardo" sort="Chowell, Gerardo" uniqKey="Chowell G" first="Gerardo" last="Chowell">Gerardo Chowell</name></country><country name="Royaume-Uni"><region name="Angleterre"><name sortKey="Zarebski, Alexander" sort="Zarebski, Alexander" uniqKey="Zarebski A" first="Alexander" last="Zarebski">Alexander Zarebski</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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