Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020
Identifieur interne : 000143 ( Pmc/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000142; suivant : 000144Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020
Auteurs : Kenji Mizumoto [Japon, États-Unis] ; Katsushi Kagaya [Japon] ; Alexander Zarebski [Royaume-Uni] ; Gerardo Chowell [États-Unis]Source :
- Eurosurveillance [ 1025-496X ] ; 2020.
Abstract
On 5 February 2020, in Yokohama, Japan, a cruise ship hosting 3,711 people underwent a 2-week quarantine after a former passenger was found with COVID-19 post-disembarking. As at 20 February, 634 persons on board tested positive for the causative virus. We conducted statistical modelling to derive the delay-adjusted asymptomatic proportion of infections, along with the infections’ timeline. The estimated asymptomatic proportion was 17.9% (95% credible interval (CrI): 15.5–20.2%). Most infections occurred before the quarantine start.
Url:
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180
PubMed: 32183930
PubMed Central: 7078829
Affiliations:
- Japon, Royaume-Uni, États-Unis
- Angleterre, Géorgie (États-Unis), Oxfordshire, Région du Kansai
- Kyoto, Oxford
- Université d'Oxford, Université de Kyoto
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PMC:7078829Le document en format XML
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<title-group><article-title>Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020</article-title>
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<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid" authenticated="false">http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2748-6560</contrib-id>
<name><surname>Mizumoto</surname>
<given-names>Kenji</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup>
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<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>3</sup>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Kagaya</surname>
<given-names>Katsushi</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>4</sup>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Zarebski</surname>
<given-names>Alexander</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5"><sup>5</sup>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Chowell</surname>
<given-names>Gerardo</given-names>
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<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>3</sup>
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<aff id="aff1"><label>1</label>
Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto University Yoshida-Nakaadachi-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan</aff>
<aff id="aff2"><label>2</label>
Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan</aff>
<aff id="aff3"><label>3</label>
Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States</aff>
<aff id="aff4"><label>4</label>
Seto Marine Biological Laboratory, Field Science, Education and Reseach Center, Kyoto University, Shirahama-cho, Nishimuro-gun, Wakayama, Japan</aff>
<aff id="aff5"><label>5</label>
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom</aff>
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<author-notes><fn id="afn1"><p>Correspondence: Kenji Mizumoto (<email xlink:href="mizumoto.kenji.5a@kyoto-u.ac.jp">mizumoto.kenji.5a@kyoto-u.ac.jp</email>
)</p>
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<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>12</day>
<month>3</month>
<year>2020</year>
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<volume>25</volume>
<issue>10</issue>
<elocation-id>2000180</elocation-id>
<history><date date-type="received"><day>20</day>
<month>2</month>
<year>2020</year>
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<date date-type="accepted"><day>12</day>
<month>3</month>
<year>2020</year>
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<permissions><copyright-statement>This article is copyright of the authors or their affiliated institutions, 2020.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2020</copyright-year>
<copyright-holder>The authors or their affiliated institutions</copyright-holder>
<license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><license-p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) Licence. You may share and adapt the material, but must give appropriate credit to the source, provide a link to the licence, and indicate if changes were made.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<abstract><p>On 5 February 2020, in Yokohama, Japan, a cruise ship hosting 3,711 people underwent a 2-week quarantine after a former passenger was found with COVID-19 post-disembarking. As at 20 February, 634 persons on board tested positive for the causative virus. We conducted statistical modelling to derive the delay-adjusted asymptomatic proportion of infections, along with the infections’ timeline. The estimated asymptomatic proportion was 17.9% (95% credible interval (CrI): 15.5–20.2%). Most infections occurred before the quarantine start.</p>
</abstract>
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<kwd>outbreak</kwd>
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