Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data.
Identifieur interne : 001103 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 001102; suivant : 001104Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data.
Auteurs : Zian Zhuang [République populaire de Chine] ; Shi Zhao [République populaire de Chine] ; Qianying Lin [États-Unis] ; Peihua Cao [République populaire de Chine] ; Yijun Lou [République populaire de Chine] ; Lin Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Daihai He [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases [ 1878-3511 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
As of 1 March 2020, Iran has reported 987 COVID-19 cases and including 54 associated deaths. At least six neighboring countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Afghanistan and Pakistan) have reported imported COVID-19 cases from Iran. We used air travel data and the cases from Iran to other Middle East countries and estimated 16533 (95% CI: 5925, 35538) COVID-19 cases in Iran by 25 February, before UAE and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries suspended inbound and outbound flights from Iran.
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.019
PubMed: 32171951
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Electronic address: daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Hong Kong SAR</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases</title><idno type="eISSN">1878-3511</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">As of 1 March 2020, Iran has reported 987 COVID-19 cases and including 54 associated deaths. At least six neighboring countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Afghanistan and Pakistan) have reported imported COVID-19 cases from Iran. We used air travel data and the cases from Iran to other Middle East countries and estimated 16533 (95% CI: 5925, 35538) COVID-19 cases in Iran by 25 February, before UAE and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries suspended inbound and outbound flights from Iran.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32171951</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>15</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1878-3511</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Mar</Month><Day>11</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Int. J. Infect. Dis.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Preliminary estimation of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Iran: A modelling analysis based on overseas cases and air travel data.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S1201-9712(20)30138-7</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.019</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>As of 1 March 2020, Iran has reported 987 COVID-19 cases and including 54 associated deaths. At least six neighboring countries (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Afghanistan and Pakistan) have reported imported COVID-19 cases from Iran. We used air travel data and the cases from Iran to other Middle East countries and estimated 16533 (95% CI: 5925, 35538) COVID-19 cases in Iran by 25 February, before UAE and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries suspended inbound and outbound flights from Iran.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Ltd.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhuang</LastName><ForeName>Zian</ForeName><Initials>Z</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhao</LastName><ForeName>Shi</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lin</LastName><ForeName>Qianying</ForeName><Initials>Q</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cao</LastName><ForeName>Peihua</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Clinical Research Centre, Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lou</LastName><ForeName>Yijun</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yang</LastName><ForeName>Lin</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. 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