Assessing the Impact of Reduced Travel on Exportation Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19)
Identifieur interne : 000B57 ( Ncbi/Curation ); précédent : 000B56; suivant : 000B58Assessing the Impact of Reduced Travel on Exportation Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19)
Auteurs : Asami Anzai ; Tetsuro Kobayashi ; Natalie M. Linton ; Ryo Kinoshita ; Katsuma Hayashi ; Ayako Suzuki ; Yichi Yang ; Sung-Mok Jung ; Takeshi Miyama ; Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov ; Hiroshi Nishiura [Japon]Source :
- Journal of Clinical Medicine [ 2077-0383 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The impact of the drastic reduction in travel volume within mainland China in January and February 2020 was quantified with respect to reports of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections outside China. Data on confirmed cases diagnosed outside China were analyzed using statistical models to estimate the impact of travel reduction on three epidemiological outcome measures: (i) the number of exported cases, (ii) the probability of a major epidemic, and (iii) the time delay to a major epidemic. From 28 January to 7 February 2020, we estimated that 226 exported cases (95% confidence interval: 86,449) were prevented, corresponding to a 70.4% reduction in incidence compared to the counterfactual scenario. The reduced probability of a major epidemic ranged from 7% to 20% in Japan, which resulted in a median time delay to a major epidemic of two days. Depending on the scenario, the estimated delay may be less than one day. As the delay is small, the decision to control travel volume through restrictions on freedom of movement should be balanced between the resulting estimated epidemiological impact and predicted economic fallout.
Url:
DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020601
PubMed: 32102279
PubMed Central: 7073579
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PMC:7073579Le document en format XML
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Assessing the Impact of Reduced Travel on Exportation Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19)</title>
<author><name sortKey="Anzai, Asami" sort="Anzai, Asami" uniqKey="Anzai A" first="Asami" last="Anzai">Asami Anzai</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00601">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(A.A.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email>
(T.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email>
(N.M.L.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email>
(R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(K.H.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email>
(A.S.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
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<author><name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00601">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
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<author><name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M." last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00601">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
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<author><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00601">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
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<author><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00601">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
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<author><name sortKey="Suzuki, Ayako" sort="Suzuki, Ayako" uniqKey="Suzuki A" first="Ayako" last="Suzuki">Ayako Suzuki</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00601">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
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</affiliation>
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<author><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00601">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
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<author><name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00601">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
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(Y.Y.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
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</affiliation>
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<author><name sortKey="Miyama, Takeshi" sort="Miyama, Takeshi" uniqKey="Miyama T" first="Takeshi" last="Miyama">Takeshi Miyama</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="af2-jcm-09-00601">Osaka Institute of Public Health, Nakamichi 1-3-69, Higashinari, Osaka 537-0025, Japan;<email>takeshi.j.miyama@gmail.com</email>
</nlm:aff>
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<author><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R." last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00601">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(A.A.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email>
(T.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email>
(N.M.L.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email>
(R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(K.H.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email>
(A.S.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(Y.Y.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name>
<affiliation><nlm:aff id="af1-jcm-09-00601">Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan;<email>aanzai@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(A.A.);<email>tootsieroll2910@gmail.com</email>
(T.K.);<email>nlinton@gmail.com</email>
(N.M.L.);<email>kinoshitaryo@gmail.com</email>
(R.K.);<email>katsuma_hayashi@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(K.H.);<email>akmskorokoro@gmail.com</email>
(A.S.);<email>lukeyang1993@eis.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(Y.Y.);<email>seductmd@med.hokudai.ac.jp</email>
(S.-m.J.);</nlm:aff>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af3-jcm-09-00601">CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country>
<wicri:regionArea>CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Saitama 332-0012</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Journal of Clinical Medicine</title>
<idno type="eISSN">2077-0383</idno>
<imprint><date when="2020">2020</date>
</imprint>
</series>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The impact of the drastic reduction in travel volume within mainland China in January and February 2020 was quantified with respect to reports of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections outside China. Data on confirmed cases diagnosed outside China were analyzed using statistical models to estimate the impact of travel reduction on three epidemiological outcome measures: (i) the number of exported cases, (ii) the probability of a major epidemic, and (iii) the time delay to a major epidemic. From 28 January to 7 February 2020, we estimated that 226 exported cases (95% confidence interval: 86,449) were prevented, corresponding to a 70.4% reduction in incidence compared to the counterfactual scenario. The reduced probability of a major epidemic ranged from 7% to 20% in Japan, which resulted in a median time delay to a major epidemic of two days. Depending on the scenario, the estimated delay may be less than one day. As the delay is small, the decision to control travel volume through restrictions on freedom of movement should be balanced between the resulting estimated epidemiological impact and predicted economic fallout.</p>
</div>
</front>
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