Risk Assessment of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Outbreaks Outside China
Identifieur interne : 000383 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000382; suivant : 000384Risk Assessment of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Outbreaks Outside China
Auteurs : Péter Boldog ; Tamás Tekeli ; Zsolt Vizi ; Attila Dénes ; Ferenc A. Bartha ; Gergely RöstSource :
- Journal of Clinical Medicine [ 2077-0383 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
We developed a computational tool to assess the risks of novel coronavirus outbreaks outside of China. We estimate the dependence of the risk of a major outbreak in a country from imported cases on key parameters such as: (i) the evolution of the cumulative number of cases in mainland China outside the closed areas; (ii) the connectivity of the destination country with China, including baseline travel frequencies, the effect of travel restrictions, and the efficacy of entry screening at destination; and (iii) the efficacy of control measures in the destination country (expressed by the local reproduction number
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DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020571
PubMed: 32093043
PubMed Central: 7073711
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Risk Assessment of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Outbreaks Outside China</title><author><name sortKey="Boldog, Peter" sort="Boldog, Peter" uniqKey="Boldog P" first="Péter" last="Boldog">Péter Boldog</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tekeli, Tamas" sort="Tekeli, Tamas" uniqKey="Tekeli T" first="Tamás" last="Tekeli">Tamás Tekeli</name></author><author><name sortKey="Vizi, Zsolt" sort="Vizi, Zsolt" uniqKey="Vizi Z" first="Zsolt" last="Vizi">Zsolt Vizi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Denes, Attila" sort="Denes, Attila" uniqKey="Denes A" first="Attila" last="Dénes">Attila Dénes</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bartha, Ferenc A" sort="Bartha, Ferenc A" uniqKey="Bartha F" first="Ferenc A." last="Bartha">Ferenc A. Bartha</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rost, Gergely" sort="Rost, Gergely" uniqKey="Rost G" first="Gergely" last="Röst">Gergely Röst</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">32093043</idno><idno type="pmc">7073711</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7073711</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7073711</idno><idno type="doi">10.3390/jcm9020571</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000912</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000912</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000912</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000912</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000048</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000048</idno><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32093043</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000A43</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000A43</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000A43</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000A43</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000355</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000355</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000B21</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000B21</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">000B21</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000385</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000383</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000383</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Risk Assessment of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Outbreaks Outside China</title><author><name sortKey="Boldog, Peter" sort="Boldog, Peter" uniqKey="Boldog P" first="Péter" last="Boldog">Péter Boldog</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tekeli, Tamas" sort="Tekeli, Tamas" uniqKey="Tekeli T" first="Tamás" last="Tekeli">Tamás Tekeli</name></author><author><name sortKey="Vizi, Zsolt" sort="Vizi, Zsolt" uniqKey="Vizi Z" first="Zsolt" last="Vizi">Zsolt Vizi</name></author><author><name sortKey="Denes, Attila" sort="Denes, Attila" uniqKey="Denes A" first="Attila" last="Dénes">Attila Dénes</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bartha, Ferenc A" sort="Bartha, Ferenc A" uniqKey="Bartha F" first="Ferenc A." last="Bartha">Ferenc A. Bartha</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rost, Gergely" sort="Rost, Gergely" uniqKey="Rost G" first="Gergely" last="Röst">Gergely Röst</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of Clinical Medicine</title><idno type="eISSN">2077-0383</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>We developed a computational tool to assess the risks of novel coronavirus outbreaks outside of China. We estimate the dependence of the risk of a major outbreak in a country from imported cases on key parameters such as: (i) the evolution of the cumulative number of cases in mainland China outside the closed areas; (ii) the connectivity of the destination country with China, including baseline travel frequencies, the effect of travel restrictions, and the efficacy of entry screening at destination; and (iii) the efficacy of control measures in the destination country (expressed by the local reproduction number <inline-formula><mml:math id="mm1"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mi>loc</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>). We found that in countries with low connectivity to China but with relatively high <inline-formula><mml:math id="mm2"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mi>loc</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, the most beneficial control measure to reduce the risk of outbreaks is a further reduction in their importation number either by entry screening or travel restrictions. Countries with high connectivity but low <inline-formula><mml:math id="mm3"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mi>loc</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> benefit the most from policies that further reduce <inline-formula><mml:math id="mm4"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mi>loc</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Countries in the middle should consider a combination of such policies. Risk assessments were illustrated for selected groups of countries from America, Asia, and Europe. 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Suzuki</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Bartha, Ferenc A" sort="Bartha, Ferenc A" uniqKey="Bartha F" first="Ferenc A." last="Bartha">Ferenc A. Bartha</name><name sortKey="Boldog, Peter" sort="Boldog, Peter" uniqKey="Boldog P" first="Péter" last="Boldog">Péter Boldog</name><name sortKey="Denes, Attila" sort="Denes, Attila" uniqKey="Denes A" first="Attila" last="Dénes">Attila Dénes</name><name sortKey="Rost, Gergely" sort="Rost, Gergely" uniqKey="Rost G" first="Gergely" last="Röst">Gergely Röst</name><name sortKey="Tekeli, Tamas" sort="Tekeli, Tamas" uniqKey="Tekeli T" first="Tamás" last="Tekeli">Tamás Tekeli</name><name sortKey="Vizi, Zsolt" sort="Vizi, Zsolt" uniqKey="Vizi Z" first="Zsolt" last="Vizi">Zsolt Vizi</name></noCountry></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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