Assessing the Impact of Reduced Travel on Exportation Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19).
Identifieur interne : 000455 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 000454; suivant : 000456Assessing the Impact of Reduced Travel on Exportation Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19).
Auteurs : Asami Anzai [Japon] ; Tetsuro Kobayashi [Japon] ; Natalie M. Linton [Japon] ; Ryo Kinoshita [Japon] ; Katsuma Hayashi [Japon] ; Ayako Suzuki [Japon] ; Yichi Yang [Japon] ; Sung-Mok Jung [Japon] ; Takeshi Miyama [Japon] ; Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov [Japon] ; Hiroshi Nishiura [Japon]Source :
- Journal of clinical medicine [ 2077-0383 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The impact of the drastic reduction in travel volume within mainland China in January and February 2020 was quantified with respect to reports of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections outside China. Data on confirmed cases diagnosed outside China were analyzed using statistical models to estimate the impact of travel reduction on three epidemiological outcome measures: (i) the number of exported cases, (ii) the probability of a major epidemic, and (iii) the time delay to a major epidemic. From 28 January to 7 February 2020, we estimated that 226 exported cases (95% confidence interval: 86,449) were prevented, corresponding to a 70.4% reduction in incidence compared to the counterfactual scenario. The reduced probability of a major epidemic ranged from 7% to 20% in Japan, which resulted in a median time delay to a major epidemic of two days. Depending on the scenario, the estimated delay may be less than one day. As the delay is small, the decision to control travel volume through restrictions on freedom of movement should be balanced between the resulting estimated epidemiological impact and predicted economic fallout.
DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020601
PubMed: 32102279
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Linton</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Suzuki, Ayako" sort="Suzuki, Ayako" uniqKey="Suzuki A" first="Ayako" last="Suzuki">Ayako Suzuki</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Miyama, Takeshi" sort="Miyama, Takeshi" uniqKey="Miyama T" first="Takeshi" last="Miyama">Takeshi Miyama</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Osaka Institute of Public Health, Nakamichi 1-3-69, Higashinari, Osaka 537-0025, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Osaka Institute of Public Health, Nakamichi 1-3-69, Higashinari, Osaka 537-0025</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R" last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of clinical medicine</title><idno type="ISSN">2077-0383</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The impact of the drastic reduction in travel volume within mainland China in January and February 2020 was quantified with respect to reports of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections outside China. Data on confirmed cases diagnosed outside China were analyzed using statistical models to estimate the impact of travel reduction on three epidemiological outcome measures: (i) the number of exported cases, (ii) the probability of a major epidemic, and (iii) the time delay to a major epidemic. From 28 January to 7 February 2020, we estimated that 226 exported cases (95% confidence interval: 86,449) were prevented, corresponding to a 70.4% reduction in incidence compared to the counterfactual scenario. The reduced probability of a major epidemic ranged from 7% to 20% in Japan, which resulted in a median time delay to a major epidemic of two days. Depending on the scenario, the estimated delay may be less than one day. As the delay is small, the decision to control travel volume through restrictions on freedom of movement should be balanced between the resulting estimated epidemiological impact and predicted economic fallout.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32102279</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>27</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">2077-0383</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>9</Volume><Issue>2</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Feb</Month><Day>24</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Journal of clinical medicine</Title><ISOAbbreviation>J Clin Med</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Assessing the Impact of Reduced Travel on Exportation Dynamics of Novel Coronavirus Infection (COVID-19).</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">E601</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.3390/jcm9020601</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>The impact of the drastic reduction in travel volume within mainland China in January and February 2020 was quantified with respect to reports of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections outside China. Data on confirmed cases diagnosed outside China were analyzed using statistical models to estimate the impact of travel reduction on three epidemiological outcome measures: (i) the number of exported cases, (ii) the probability of a major epidemic, and (iii) the time delay to a major epidemic. From 28 January to 7 February 2020, we estimated that 226 exported cases (95% confidence interval: 86,449) were prevented, corresponding to a 70.4% reduction in incidence compared to the counterfactual scenario. The reduced probability of a major epidemic ranged from 7% to 20% in Japan, which resulted in a median time delay to a major epidemic of two days. Depending on the scenario, the estimated delay may be less than one day. As the delay is small, the decision to control travel volume through restrictions on freedom of movement should be balanced between the resulting estimated epidemiological impact and predicted economic fallout.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Anzai</LastName><ForeName>Asami</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kobayashi</LastName><ForeName>Tetsuro</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Linton</LastName><ForeName>Natalie M</ForeName><Initials>NM</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-5464-0076</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kinoshita</LastName><ForeName>Ryo</ForeName><Initials>R</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-0116-4598</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Hayashi</LastName><ForeName>Katsuma</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Suzuki</LastName><ForeName>Ayako</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yang</LastName><ForeName>Yichi</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Jung</LastName><ForeName>Sung-Mok</ForeName><Initials>SM</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-0787-4515</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Miyama</LastName><ForeName>Takeshi</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Osaka Institute of Public Health, Nakamichi 1-3-69, Higashinari, Osaka 537-0025, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Akhmetzhanov</LastName><ForeName>Andrei R</ForeName><Initials>AR</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0003-3269-7351</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Nishiura</LastName><ForeName>Hiroshi</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0003-0941-8537</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CREST, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>JP18fk0108050</GrantID><Agency>Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>H.N.: 17H04701, 17H05808, 18H04895 and 19H01074; R.K.: 18J21587; AS.: 19K24159</GrantID><Agency>Japan Society for the Promotion of Science</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>NA</GrantID><Agency>Inamori Foundation</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>JPMJCR1413</GrantID><Agency>Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>NA</GrantID><Agency>Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology</Agency><Country></Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>24</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Switzerland</Country><MedlineTA>J Clin Med</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101606588</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2077-0383</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">emerging infectious diseases</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">imported case</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">migration</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">quarantine</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">travel</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>13</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>19</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>20</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>28</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>28</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>28</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32102279</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">jcm9020601</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.3390/jcm9020601</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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