First two months of the 2019 Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) epidemic in China: real-time surveillance and evaluation with a second derivative model.
Identifieur interne : 000125 ( PubMed/Curation ); précédent : 000124; suivant : 000126First two months of the 2019 Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) epidemic in China: real-time surveillance and evaluation with a second derivative model.
Auteurs : Xinguang Chen [États-Unis] ; Bin Yu [États-Unis]Source :
- Global health research and policy [ 2397-0642 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Similar to outbreaks of many other infectious diseases, success in controlling the novel 2019 coronavirus infection requires a timely and accurate monitoring of the epidemic, particularly during its early period with rather limited data while the need for information increases explosively.
DOI: 10.1186/s41256-020-00137-4
PubMed: 32158961
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">First two months of the 2019 Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) epidemic in China: real-time surveillance and evaluation with a second derivative model.</title><author><name sortKey="Chen, Xinguang" sort="Chen, Xinguang" uniqKey="Chen X" first="Xinguang" last="Chen">Xinguang Chen</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>1Department of Epidemiology, University of Florida, 2004 Mowry Road, Gainesville, FL USA.</nlm:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Floride</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>1Department of Epidemiology, University of Florida, 2004 Mowry Road, Gainesville</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Bin" sort="Yu, Bin" uniqKey="Yu B" first="Bin" last="Yu">Bin Yu</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>1Department of Epidemiology, University of Florida, 2004 Mowry Road, Gainesville, FL USA.</nlm:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Floride</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>1Department of Epidemiology, University of Florida, 2004 Mowry Road, Gainesville</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32158961</idno><idno type="pmid">32158961</idno><idno type="doi">10.1186/s41256-020-00137-4</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000125</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000125</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000125</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000125</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">First two months of the 2019 Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) epidemic in China: real-time surveillance and evaluation with a second derivative model.</title><author><name sortKey="Chen, Xinguang" sort="Chen, Xinguang" uniqKey="Chen X" first="Xinguang" last="Chen">Xinguang Chen</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>1Department of Epidemiology, University of Florida, 2004 Mowry Road, Gainesville, FL USA.</nlm:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Floride</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>1Department of Epidemiology, University of Florida, 2004 Mowry Road, Gainesville</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Bin" sort="Yu, Bin" uniqKey="Yu B" first="Bin" last="Yu">Bin Yu</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>1Department of Epidemiology, University of Florida, 2004 Mowry Road, Gainesville, FL USA.</nlm:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Floride</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>1Department of Epidemiology, University of Florida, 2004 Mowry Road, Gainesville</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Global health research and policy</title><idno type="eISSN">2397-0642</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Similar to outbreaks of many other infectious diseases, success in controlling the novel 2019 coronavirus infection requires a timely and accurate monitoring of the epidemic, particularly during its early period with rather limited data while the need for information increases explosively.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32158961</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>13</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic-eCollection"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2397-0642</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>5</Volume><PubDate><Year>2020</Year></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Global health research and policy</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Glob Health Res Policy</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>First two months of the 2019 Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) epidemic in China: real-time surveillance and evaluation with a second derivative model.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>7</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1186/s41256-020-00137-4</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="Background" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">Similar to outbreaks of many other infectious diseases, success in controlling the novel 2019 coronavirus infection requires a timely and accurate monitoring of the epidemic, particularly during its early period with rather limited data while the need for information increases explosively.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Methods" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">In this study, we used a second derivative model to characterize the coronavirus epidemic in China with cumulatively diagnosed cases during the first 2 months. The analysis was further enhanced by an exponential model with a close-population assumption. This model was built with the data and used to assess the detection rate during the study period, considering the differences between the true infections, detectable and detected cases.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Results" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">Results from the second derivative modeling suggest the coronavirus epidemic as nonlinear and chaotic in nature. Although it emerged gradually, the epidemic was highly responsive to massive interventions initiated on January 21, 2020, as indicated by results from both second derivative and exponential modeling analyses. The epidemic started to decelerate immediately after the massive actions. The results derived from our analysis signaled the decline of the epidemic 14 days before it eventually occurred on February 4, 2020. Study findings further signaled an accelerated decline in the epidemic starting in 14 days on February 18, 2020.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="Conclusions" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">The coronavirus epidemic appeared to be nonlinear and chaotic, and was responsive to effective interventions. The methods used in this study can be applied in surveillance to inform and encourage the general public, public health professionals, clinicians and decision-makers to take coordinative and collaborative efforts to control the epidemic.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© The Author(s) 2020.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chen</LastName><ForeName>Xinguang</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>1Department of Epidemiology, University of Florida, 2004 Mowry Road, Gainesville, FL USA.</Affiliation><Identifier Source="GRID">grid.15276.37</Identifier><Identifier Source="ISNI">0000 0004 1936 8091</Identifier></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>2Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei Provinces China.</Affiliation><Identifier Source="GRID">grid.49470.3e</Identifier><Identifier Source="ISNI">0000 0001 2331 6153</Identifier></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yu</LastName><ForeName>Bin</ForeName><Initials>B</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>1Department of Epidemiology, University of Florida, 2004 Mowry Road, Gainesville, FL USA.</Affiliation><Identifier Source="GRID">grid.15276.37</Identifier><Identifier Source="ISNI">0000 0004 1936 8091</Identifier></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>02</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>Glob Health Res Policy</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101705789</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2397-0642</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">2019-nCoV, outbreak</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Dynamic modeling</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Infectious disease epidemic</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Second derivative</Keyword></KeywordList><CoiStatement>Competing interestsThe authors declare that they have no competing interests.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>13</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>20</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>12</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>12</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>12</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32158961</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1186/s41256-020-00137-4</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">137</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7050133</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Chaos. 2016 Nov;26(11):113112</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">27908019</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>PLoS Comput Biol. 2016 Feb 04;12(2):e1004655</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">26845437</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Indian J Virol. 2012 Jun;23(1):12-7</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23729996</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>N Engl J Med. 2020 Jan 29;:</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">31995857</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Asia Pac J Public Health. 2007;19 Spec No:7-12</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">18277522</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Avicenna J Med Biotechnol. 2011 Jan;3(1):25-9</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">23407581</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>J R Soc Interface. 2012 Feb 7;9(67):304-12</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">21715400</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Bull Math Biol. 2011 Mar;73(3):515-48</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">20379852</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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