Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study.
Identifieur interne : 000497 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000496; suivant : 000498Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study.
Auteurs : Marius Gilbert ; Giulia Pullano ; Francesco Pinotti ; Eugenio Valdano ; Chiara Poletto ; Pierre-Yves Boëlle ; Eric D'Ortenzio ; Yazdan Yazdanpanah ; Serge Paul Eholie ; Mathias Altmann ; Bernardo Gutierrez ; Moritz U G. Kraemer ; Vittoria ColizzaSource :
- Lancet (London, England) [ 1474-547X ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has spread from China to 25 countries. Local cycles of transmission have already occurred in 12 countries after case importation. In Africa, Egypt has so far confirmed one case. The management and control of COVID-19 importations heavily rely on a country's health capacity. Here we evaluate the preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against their risk of importation of COVID-19.
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30411-6
PubMed: 32087820
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Kraemer</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA; Computational Epidemiology Group, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Colizza, Vittoria" sort="Colizza, Vittoria" uniqKey="Colizza V" first="Vittoria" last="Colizza">Vittoria Colizza</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France. Electronic address: vittoria.colizza@inserm.fr.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32087820</idno><idno type="pmid">32087820</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30411-6</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000497</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000497</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study.</title><author><name sortKey="Gilbert, Marius" sort="Gilbert, Marius" uniqKey="Gilbert M" first="Marius" last="Gilbert">Marius Gilbert</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Spatial Epidemiology Laboratory, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium; Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifiques, Brussels, Belgium.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pullano, Giulia" sort="Pullano, Giulia" uniqKey="Pullano G" first="Giulia" last="Pullano">Giulia Pullano</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France; Sociology and Economics of Networks and Services Laboratory at Orange Experience Design Laboratory Chatillion, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pinotti, Francesco" sort="Pinotti, Francesco" uniqKey="Pinotti F" first="Francesco" last="Pinotti">Francesco Pinotti</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Valdano, Eugenio" sort="Valdano, Eugenio" uniqKey="Valdano E" first="Eugenio" last="Valdano">Eugenio Valdano</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Center for Biomedical Modeling, The Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, LA, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Poletto, Chiara" sort="Poletto, Chiara" uniqKey="Poletto C" first="Chiara" last="Poletto">Chiara Poletto</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Boelle, Pierre Yves" sort="Boelle, Pierre Yves" uniqKey="Boelle P" first="Pierre-Yves" last="Boëlle">Pierre-Yves Boëlle</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="D Ortenzio, Eric" sort="D Ortenzio, Eric" uniqKey="D Ortenzio E" first="Eric" last="D'Ortenzio">Eric D'Ortenzio</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Infection, Antimicrobials, Modelling, Evolution, INSERM, Université de Paris, Paris, France; Bichat Claude Bernard Hospital, Assistance publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yazdanpanah, Yazdan" sort="Yazdanpanah, Yazdan" uniqKey="Yazdanpanah Y" first="Yazdan" last="Yazdanpanah">Yazdan Yazdanpanah</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Infection, Antimicrobials, Modelling, Evolution, INSERM, Université de Paris, Paris, France; Bichat Claude Bernard Hospital, Assistance publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Eholie, Serge Paul" sort="Eholie, Serge Paul" uniqKey="Eholie S" first="Serge Paul" last="Eholie">Serge Paul Eholie</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Service des Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Treichville, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire; Département de Dermatologie-Infectiologie, Unité de Formation et de Recherche des Sciences Médicales, Université Félix Houphouet-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Altmann, Mathias" sort="Altmann, Mathias" uniqKey="Altmann M" first="Mathias" last="Altmann">Mathias Altmann</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>IDLIC-Maladies Infectieuses Dans Les Pays à Ressources Limitées, INSERM U1219, Bordeaux, France; Bordeaux Population Health, University of Bordeaux, Bordeaux, France.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gutierrez, Bernardo" sort="Gutierrez, Bernardo" uniqKey="Gutierrez B" first="Bernardo" last="Gutierrez">Bernardo Gutierrez</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kraemer, Moritz U G" sort="Kraemer, Moritz U G" uniqKey="Kraemer M" first="Moritz U G" last="Kraemer">Moritz U G. Kraemer</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA; Computational Epidemiology Group, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Colizza, Vittoria" sort="Colizza, Vittoria" uniqKey="Colizza V" first="Vittoria" last="Colizza">Vittoria Colizza</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France. Electronic address: vittoria.colizza@inserm.fr.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Lancet (London, England)</title><idno type="eISSN">1474-547X</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has spread from China to 25 countries. Local cycles of transmission have already occurred in 12 countries after case importation. In Africa, Egypt has so far confirmed one case. The management and control of COVID-19 importations heavily rely on a country's health capacity. Here we evaluate the preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against their risk of importation of COVID-19.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="In-Data-Review" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32087820</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>16</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1474-547X</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>395</Volume><Issue>10227</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Mar</Month><Day>14</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Lancet (London, England)</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Lancet</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>871-877</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S0140-6736(20)30411-6</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30411-6</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has spread from China to 25 countries. Local cycles of transmission have already occurred in 12 countries after case importation. In Africa, Egypt has so far confirmed one case. The management and control of COVID-19 importations heavily rely on a country's health capacity. Here we evaluate the preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against their risk of importation of COVID-19.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">We used data on the volume of air travel departing from airports in the infected provinces in China and directed to Africa to estimate the risk of importation per country. We determined the country's capacity to detect and respond to cases with two indicators: preparedness, using the WHO International Health Regulations Monitoring and Evaluation Framework; and vulnerability, using the Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index. Countries were clustered according to the Chinese regions contributing most to their risk.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="FINDINGS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">Countries with the highest importation risk (ie, Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa) have moderate to high capacity to respond to outbreaks. Countries at moderate risk (ie, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana, and Kenya) have variable capacity and high vulnerability. We identified three clusters of countries that share the same exposure to the risk originating from the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and the city of Beijing, respectively.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="INTERPRETATION" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Many countries in Africa are stepping up their preparedness to detect and cope with COVID-19 importations. Resources, intensified surveillance, and capacity building should be urgently prioritised in countries with moderate risk that might be ill-prepared to detect imported cases and to limit onward transmission.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="FUNDING" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation Horizon 2020, Agence Nationale de la Recherche.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gilbert</LastName><ForeName>Marius</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Spatial Epidemiology Laboratory, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium; Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifiques, Brussels, Belgium.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Pullano</LastName><ForeName>Giulia</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France; Sociology and Economics of Networks and Services Laboratory at Orange Experience Design Laboratory Chatillion, Paris, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Pinotti</LastName><ForeName>Francesco</ForeName><Initials>F</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Valdano</LastName><ForeName>Eugenio</ForeName><Initials>E</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Biomedical Modeling, The Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, LA, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Poletto</LastName><ForeName>Chiara</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Boëlle</LastName><ForeName>Pierre-Yves</ForeName><Initials>PY</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>D'Ortenzio</LastName><ForeName>Eric</ForeName><Initials>E</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Infection, Antimicrobials, Modelling, Evolution, INSERM, Université de Paris, Paris, France; Bichat Claude Bernard Hospital, Assistance publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yazdanpanah</LastName><ForeName>Yazdan</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Infection, Antimicrobials, Modelling, Evolution, INSERM, Université de Paris, Paris, France; Bichat Claude Bernard Hospital, Assistance publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Eholie</LastName><ForeName>Serge Paul</ForeName><Initials>SP</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Service des Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Treichville, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire; Département de Dermatologie-Infectiologie, Unité de Formation et de Recherche des Sciences Médicales, Université Félix Houphouet-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Altmann</LastName><ForeName>Mathias</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>IDLIC-Maladies Infectieuses Dans Les Pays à Ressources Limitées, INSERM U1219, Bordeaux, France; Bordeaux Population Health, University of Bordeaux, Bordeaux, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gutierrez</LastName><ForeName>Bernardo</ForeName><Initials>B</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kraemer</LastName><ForeName>Moritz U G</ForeName><Initials>MUG</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA; Computational Epidemiology Group, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Colizza</LastName><ForeName>Vittoria</ForeName><Initials>V</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, Paris, France. Electronic address: vittoria.colizza@inserm.fr.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>20</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>Lancet</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>2985213R</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0140-6736</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>AIM</CitationSubset><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>04</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>13</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>15</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>24</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>24</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>24</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32087820</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S0140-6736(20)30411-6</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30411-6</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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