Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19).
Identifieur interne : 000470 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000469; suivant : 000471Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19).
Auteurs : Tetsuro Kobayashi ; Sung-Mok Jung ; Natalie M. Linton ; Ryo Kinoshita ; Katsuma Hayashi ; Takeshi Miyama ; Asami Anzai ; Yichi Yang ; Baoyin Yuan ; Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov ; Ayako Suzuki ; Hiroshi NishiuraSource :
- Journal of clinical medicine [ 2077-0383 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
To understand the severity of infection for a given disease, it is common epidemiological practice to estimate the case fatality risk, defined as the risk of death among cases. However, there are three technical obstacles that should be addressed to appropriately measure this risk. First, division of the cumulative number of deaths by that of cases tends to underestimate the actual risk because deaths that will occur have not yet observed, and so the delay in time from illness onset to death must be addressed. Second, the observed dataset of reported cases represents only a proportion of all infected individuals and there can be a substantial number of asymptomatic and mildly infected individuals who are never diagnosed. Third, ascertainment bias and risk of death among all those infected would be smaller when estimated using shorter virus detection windows and less sensitive diagnostic laboratory tests. In the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, health authorities must cope with the uncertainty in the risk of death from COVID-19, and high-risk individuals should be identified using approaches that can address the abovementioned three problems. Although COVID-19 involves mostly mild infections among the majority of the general population, the risk of death among young adults is higher than that of seasonal influenza, and elderly with underlying comorbidities require additional care.
DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020580
PubMed: 32098019
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19).</title><author><name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M" last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Miyama, Takeshi" sort="Miyama, Takeshi" uniqKey="Miyama T" first="Takeshi" last="Miyama">Takeshi Miyama</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Osaka Institute of Public Health, Nakamichi 1-3-69, Higashinari, Osaka 537-0025, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Anzai, Asami" sort="Anzai, Asami" uniqKey="Anzai A" first="Asami" last="Anzai">Asami Anzai</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R" last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Suzuki, Ayako" sort="Suzuki, Ayako" uniqKey="Suzuki A" first="Ayako" last="Suzuki">Ayako Suzuki</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32098019</idno><idno type="pmid">32098019</idno><idno type="doi">10.3390/jcm9020580</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000470</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000470</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19).</title><author><name sortKey="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" sort="Kobayashi, Tetsuro" uniqKey="Kobayashi T" first="Tetsuro" last="Kobayashi">Tetsuro Kobayashi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jung, Sung Mok" sort="Jung, Sung Mok" uniqKey="Jung S" first="Sung-Mok" last="Jung">Sung-Mok Jung</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Linton, Natalie M" sort="Linton, Natalie M" uniqKey="Linton N" first="Natalie M" last="Linton">Natalie M. Linton</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kinoshita, Ryo" sort="Kinoshita, Ryo" uniqKey="Kinoshita R" first="Ryo" last="Kinoshita">Ryo Kinoshita</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hayashi, Katsuma" sort="Hayashi, Katsuma" uniqKey="Hayashi K" first="Katsuma" last="Hayashi">Katsuma Hayashi</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Miyama, Takeshi" sort="Miyama, Takeshi" uniqKey="Miyama T" first="Takeshi" last="Miyama">Takeshi Miyama</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Osaka Institute of Public Health, Nakamichi 1-3-69, Higashinari, Osaka 537-0025, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Anzai, Asami" sort="Anzai, Asami" uniqKey="Anzai A" first="Asami" last="Anzai">Asami Anzai</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Yichi" sort="Yang, Yichi" uniqKey="Yang Y" first="Yichi" last="Yang">Yichi Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yuan, Baoyin" sort="Yuan, Baoyin" uniqKey="Yuan B" first="Baoyin" last="Yuan">Baoyin Yuan</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" sort="Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R" uniqKey="Akhmetzhanov A" first="Andrei R" last="Akhmetzhanov">Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Suzuki, Ayako" sort="Suzuki, Ayako" uniqKey="Suzuki A" first="Ayako" last="Suzuki">Ayako Suzuki</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nishiura, Hiroshi" sort="Nishiura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Nishiura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Nishiura">Hiroshi Nishiura</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of clinical medicine</title><idno type="ISSN">2077-0383</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">To understand the severity of infection for a given disease, it is common epidemiological practice to estimate the case fatality risk, defined as the risk of death among cases. However, there are three technical obstacles that should be addressed to appropriately measure this risk. First, division of the cumulative number of deaths by that of cases tends to underestimate the actual risk because deaths that will occur have not yet observed, and so the delay in time from illness onset to death must be addressed. Second, the observed dataset of reported cases represents only a proportion of all infected individuals and there can be a substantial number of asymptomatic and mildly infected individuals who are never diagnosed. Third, ascertainment bias and risk of death among all those infected would be smaller when estimated using shorter virus detection windows and less sensitive diagnostic laboratory tests. In the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, health authorities must cope with the uncertainty in the risk of death from COVID-19, and high-risk individuals should be identified using approaches that can address the abovementioned three problems. Although COVID-19 involves mostly mild infections among the majority of the general population, the risk of death among young adults is higher than that of seasonal influenza, and elderly with underlying comorbidities require additional care.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32098019</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>26</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">2077-0383</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>9</Volume><Issue>2</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Feb</Month><Day>21</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Journal of clinical medicine</Title><ISOAbbreviation>J Clin Med</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Communicating the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19).</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">E580</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.3390/jcm9020580</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>To understand the severity of infection for a given disease, it is common epidemiological practice to estimate the case fatality risk, defined as the risk of death among cases. However, there are three technical obstacles that should be addressed to appropriately measure this risk. First, division of the cumulative number of deaths by that of cases tends to underestimate the actual risk because deaths that will occur have not yet observed, and so the delay in time from illness onset to death must be addressed. Second, the observed dataset of reported cases represents only a proportion of all infected individuals and there can be a substantial number of asymptomatic and mildly infected individuals who are never diagnosed. Third, ascertainment bias and risk of death among all those infected would be smaller when estimated using shorter virus detection windows and less sensitive diagnostic laboratory tests. In the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, health authorities must cope with the uncertainty in the risk of death from COVID-19, and high-risk individuals should be identified using approaches that can address the abovementioned three problems. Although COVID-19 involves mostly mild infections among the majority of the general population, the risk of death among young adults is higher than that of seasonal influenza, and elderly with underlying comorbidities require additional care.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kobayashi</LastName><ForeName>Tetsuro</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Jung</LastName><ForeName>Sung-Mok</ForeName><Initials>SM</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-0787-4515</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Linton</LastName><ForeName>Natalie M</ForeName><Initials>NM</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kinoshita</LastName><ForeName>Ryo</ForeName><Initials>R</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-0116-4598</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Hayashi</LastName><ForeName>Katsuma</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Miyama</LastName><ForeName>Takeshi</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Osaka Institute of Public Health, Nakamichi 1-3-69, Higashinari, Osaka 537-0025, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Anzai</LastName><ForeName>Asami</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yang</LastName><ForeName>Yichi</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yuan</LastName><ForeName>Baoyin</ForeName><Initials>B</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Akhmetzhanov</LastName><ForeName>Andrei R</ForeName><Initials>AR</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0003-3269-7351</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Suzuki</LastName><ForeName>Ayako</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Nishiura</LastName><ForeName>Hiroshi</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Kita-ku, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido 060-8638, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332-0012, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>JP18fk0108050</GrantID><Agency>Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>H.N.: 17H04701, 17H05808, 18H04895 and 19H01074; R.K.: 18J21587, AS.: 19K24159</GrantID><Agency>Japan Society for the Promotion of Science</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>NA</GrantID><Agency>Inamori Foundation</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>JPMJCR1413</GrantID><Agency>Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>NA</GrantID><Agency>Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology</Agency><Country></Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>NA</GrantID><Agency>China Scholarship Council</Agency><Country></Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016421">Editorial</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>21</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Switzerland</Country><MedlineTA>J Clin Med</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101606588</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2077-0383</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">emerging infectious diseases</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">fatality</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">statistical estimation</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">virulence</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">virus</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>15</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>17</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>27</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>27</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>27</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32098019</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">jcm9020580</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.3390/jcm9020580</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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