Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts.
Identifieur interne : 000352 ( PubMed/Corpus ); précédent : 000351; suivant : 000353Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts.
Auteurs : Joel Hellewell ; Sam Abbott ; Amy Gimma ; Nikos I. Bosse ; Christopher I. Jarvis ; Timothy W. Russell ; James D. Munday ; Adam J. Kucharski ; W John Edmunds ; Sebastian Funk ; Rosalind M. EggoSource :
- The Lancet. Global health [ 2214-109X ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Isolation of cases and contact tracing is used to control outbreaks of infectious diseases, and has been used for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Whether this strategy will achieve control depends on characteristics of both the pathogen and the response. Here we use a mathematical model to assess if isolation and contact tracing are able to control onwards transmission from imported cases of COVID-19.
DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30074-7
PubMed: 32119825
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Bosse</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jarvis, Christopher I" sort="Jarvis, Christopher I" uniqKey="Jarvis C" first="Christopher I" last="Jarvis">Christopher I. Jarvis</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Russell, Timothy W" sort="Russell, Timothy W" uniqKey="Russell T" first="Timothy W" last="Russell">Timothy W. Russell</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Munday, James D" sort="Munday, James D" uniqKey="Munday J" first="James D" last="Munday">James D. Munday</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kucharski, Adam J" sort="Kucharski, Adam J" uniqKey="Kucharski A" first="Adam J" last="Kucharski">Adam J. Kucharski</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Edmunds, W John" sort="Edmunds, W John" uniqKey="Edmunds W" first="W John" last="Edmunds">W John Edmunds</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Funk, Sebastian" sort="Funk, Sebastian" uniqKey="Funk S" first="Sebastian" last="Funk">Sebastian Funk</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Eggo, Rosalind M" sort="Eggo, Rosalind M" uniqKey="Eggo R" first="Rosalind M" last="Eggo">Rosalind M. Eggo</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. Electronic address: r.eggo@lshtm.ac.uk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32119825</idno><idno type="pmid">32119825</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30074-7</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000352</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000352</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts.</title><author><name sortKey="Hellewell, Joel" sort="Hellewell, Joel" uniqKey="Hellewell J" first="Joel" last="Hellewell">Joel Hellewell</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Abbott, Sam" sort="Abbott, Sam" uniqKey="Abbott S" first="Sam" last="Abbott">Sam Abbott</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gimma, Amy" sort="Gimma, Amy" uniqKey="Gimma A" first="Amy" last="Gimma">Amy Gimma</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bosse, Nikos I" sort="Bosse, Nikos I" uniqKey="Bosse N" first="Nikos I" last="Bosse">Nikos I. Bosse</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jarvis, Christopher I" sort="Jarvis, Christopher I" uniqKey="Jarvis C" first="Christopher I" last="Jarvis">Christopher I. Jarvis</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Russell, Timothy W" sort="Russell, Timothy W" uniqKey="Russell T" first="Timothy W" last="Russell">Timothy W. Russell</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Munday, James D" sort="Munday, James D" uniqKey="Munday J" first="James D" last="Munday">James D. Munday</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kucharski, Adam J" sort="Kucharski, Adam J" uniqKey="Kucharski A" first="Adam J" last="Kucharski">Adam J. Kucharski</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Edmunds, W John" sort="Edmunds, W John" uniqKey="Edmunds W" first="W John" last="Edmunds">W John Edmunds</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Funk, Sebastian" sort="Funk, Sebastian" uniqKey="Funk S" first="Sebastian" last="Funk">Sebastian Funk</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Eggo, Rosalind M" sort="Eggo, Rosalind M" uniqKey="Eggo R" first="Rosalind M" last="Eggo">Rosalind M. Eggo</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. Electronic address: r.eggo@lshtm.ac.uk.</nlm:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">The Lancet. Global health</title><idno type="eISSN">2214-109X</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Isolation of cases and contact tracing is used to control outbreaks of infectious diseases, and has been used for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Whether this strategy will achieve control depends on characteristics of both the pathogen and the response. Here we use a mathematical model to assess if isolation and contact tracing are able to control onwards transmission from imported cases of COVID-19.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32119825</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>02</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2214-109X</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Feb</Month><Day>28</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>The Lancet. Global health</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Lancet Glob Health</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S2214-109X(20)30074-7</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30074-7</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">Isolation of cases and contact tracing is used to control outbreaks of infectious diseases, and has been used for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Whether this strategy will achieve control depends on characteristics of both the pathogen and the response. Here we use a mathematical model to assess if isolation and contact tracing are able to control onwards transmission from imported cases of COVID-19.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">We developed a stochastic transmission model, parameterised to the COVID-19 outbreak. We used the model to quantify the potential effectiveness of contact tracing and isolation of cases at controlling a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-like pathogen. We considered scenarios that varied in the number of initial cases, the basic reproduction number (R<sub>0</sub>), the delay from symptom onset to isolation, the probability that contacts were traced, the proportion of transmission that occurred before symptom onset, and the proportion of subclinical infections. We assumed isolation prevented all further transmission in the model. Outbreaks were deemed controlled if transmission ended within 12 weeks or before 5000 cases in total. We measured the success of controlling outbreaks using isolation and contact tracing, and quantified the weekly maximum number of cases traced to measure feasibility of public health effort.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="FINDINGS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">Simulated outbreaks starting with five initial cases, an R<sub>0</sub> of 1·5, and 0% transmission before symptom onset could be controlled even with low contact tracing probability; however, the probability of controlling an outbreak decreased with the number of initial cases, when R<sub>0</sub> was 2·5 or 3·5 and with more transmission before symptom onset. Across different initial numbers of cases, the majority of scenarios with an R<sub>0</sub> of 1·5 were controllable with less than 50% of contacts successfully traced. To control the majority of outbreaks, for R<sub>0</sub> of 2·5 more than 70% of contacts had to be traced, and for an R<sub>0</sub> of 3·5 more than 90% of contacts had to be traced. The delay between symptom onset and isolation had the largest role in determining whether an outbreak was controllable when R<sub>0</sub> was 1·5. For R<sub>0</sub> values of 2·5 or 3·5, if there were 40 initial cases, contact tracing and isolation were only potentially feasible when less than 1% of transmission occurred before symptom onset.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="INTERPRETATION" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">In most scenarios, highly effective contact tracing and case isolation is enough to control a new outbreak of COVID-19 within 3 months. The probability of control decreases with long delays from symptom onset to isolation, fewer cases ascertained by contact tracing, and increasing transmission before symptoms. This model can be modified to reflect updated transmission characteristics and more specific definitions of outbreak control to assess the potential success of local response efforts.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="FUNDING" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">Wellcome Trust, Global Challenges Research Fund, and Health Data Research UK.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Hellewell</LastName><ForeName>Joel</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Abbott</LastName><ForeName>Sam</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gimma</LastName><ForeName>Amy</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Bosse</LastName><ForeName>Nikos I</ForeName><Initials>NI</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Jarvis</LastName><ForeName>Christopher I</ForeName><Initials>CI</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Russell</LastName><ForeName>Timothy W</ForeName><Initials>TW</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Munday</LastName><ForeName>James D</ForeName><Initials>JD</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kucharski</LastName><ForeName>Adam J</ForeName><Initials>AJ</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Edmunds</LastName><ForeName>W John</ForeName><Initials>WJ</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><CollectiveName>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group</CollectiveName></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Funk</LastName><ForeName>Sebastian</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Eggo</LastName><ForeName>Rosalind M</ForeName><Initials>RM</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. Electronic address: r.eggo@lshtm.ac.uk.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>28</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>Lancet Glob Health</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101613665</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2214-109X</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><CommentsCorrectionsList><CommentsCorrections RefType="ErratumIn"><RefSource>Lancet Glob Health. 2020 Mar 5;:</RefSource><PMID Version="1">32145764</PMID></CommentsCorrections><CommentsCorrections RefType="CommentIn"><RefSource>BMC Med. 2020 Mar 13;18(1):80</RefSource><PMID Version="1">32164708</PMID></CommentsCorrections></CommentsCorrectionsList><InvestigatorList><Investigator ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sun</LastName><ForeName>Fiona</ForeName><Initials>F</Initials></Investigator><Investigator ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Flasche</LastName><ForeName>Stefan</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials></Investigator><Investigator ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Quilty</LastName><ForeName>Billy J</ForeName><Initials>BJ</Initials></Investigator><Investigator ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Davies</LastName><ForeName>Nicholas</ForeName><Initials>N</Initials></Investigator><Investigator ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Liu</LastName><ForeName>Yang</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials></Investigator><Investigator ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Clifford</LastName><ForeName>Samuel</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials></Investigator><Investigator ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Klepac</LastName><ForeName>Petra</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials></Investigator><Investigator ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Jit</LastName><ForeName>Mark</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials></Investigator><Investigator ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Diamond</LastName><ForeName>Charlie</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials></Investigator><Investigator ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gibbs</LastName><ForeName>Hamish</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials></Investigator><Investigator ValidYN="Y"><LastName>van Zandvoort</LastName><ForeName>Kevin</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials></Investigator></InvestigatorList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>19</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>19</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>20</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>3</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>3</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>3</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>aheadofprint</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32119825</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S2214-109X(20)30074-7</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30074-7</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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