Distribution of the COVID-19 epidemic and correlation with population emigration from wuhan, China.
Identifieur interne : 000370 ( PubMed/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000369; suivant : 000371Distribution of the COVID-19 epidemic and correlation with population emigration from wuhan, China.
Auteurs : Ze-Liang Chen [République populaire de Chine] ; Qi Zhang [République populaire de Chine] ; Yi Lu [États-Unis] ; Zhong-Min Guo [République populaire de Chine] ; Xi Zhang [République populaire de Chine] ; Wen-Jun Zhang [République populaire de Chine] ; Cheng Guo [États-Unis] ; Cong-Hui Liao [République populaire de Chine] ; Qian-Lin Li [République populaire de Chine] ; Xiao-Hu Han [République populaire de Chine] ; Jia-Hai Lu [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Chinese medical journal [ 2542-5641 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The ongoing new coronavirus pneumonia (Corona Virus Disease 2019, COVID-19) outbreak is spreading in China, but it has not yet reached its peak. Five million people emigrated from Wuhan before lockdown, potentially representing a source of virus infection. Determining case distribution and its correlation with population emigration from Wuhan in the early stage of the epidemic is of great importance for early warning and for the prevention of future outbreaks.
DOI: 10.1097/CM9.0000000000000782
PubMed: 32118644
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sortKey="Zhang, Wen Jun" sort="Zhang, Wen Jun" uniqKey="Zhang W" first="Wen-Jun" last="Zhang">Wen-Jun Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biological Science and Technology, School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biological Science and Technology, School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Guangdong 510080</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Guo, Cheng" sort="Guo, Cheng" uniqKey="Guo C" first="Cheng" last="Guo">Cheng Guo</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10032, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman 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wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Guangdong 510080</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Han, Xiao Hu" sort="Han, Xiao Hu" uniqKey="Han X" first="Xiao-Hu" last="Han">Xiao-Hu Han</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Key Laboratory of Livestock Infectious Diseases in Northeast China, Ministry of Education, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110866, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Key Laboratory of Livestock Infectious Diseases in Northeast China, Ministry of Education, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110866</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Liaoning 110866</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lu, Jia Hai" sort="Lu, Jia Hai" uniqKey="Lu J" first="Jia-Hai" last="Lu">Jia-Hai Lu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Guangdong 510080</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32118644</idno><idno type="pmid">32118644</idno><idno type="doi">10.1097/CM9.0000000000000782</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000356</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000356</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000356</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000356</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000370</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000370</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Distribution of the COVID-19 epidemic and correlation with population emigration from wuhan, China.</title><author><name sortKey="Chen, Ze Liang" sort="Chen, Ze Liang" uniqKey="Chen Z" first="Ze-Liang" last="Chen">Ze-Liang Chen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Guangdong 510080</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Qi" sort="Zhang, Qi" uniqKey="Zhang Q" first="Qi" last="Zhang">Qi Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Key Laboratory of Livestock Infectious Diseases in Northeast China, Ministry of Education, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110866, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Key Laboratory of Livestock Infectious Diseases in Northeast China, Ministry of Education, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110866</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Liaoning 110866</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lu, Yi" sort="Lu, Yi" uniqKey="Lu Y" first="Yi" last="Lu">Yi Lu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Health Law, Policy and Management, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, 02215, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Health Law, Policy and Management, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, 02215</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>02215</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Guo, Zhong Min" sort="Guo, Zhong Min" uniqKey="Guo Z" first="Zhong-Min" last="Guo">Zhong-Min Guo</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Animal Experiment Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Animal Experiment Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Guangdong 510080</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Xi" sort="Zhang, Xi" uniqKey="Zhang X" first="Xi" last="Zhang">Xi Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Guangdong 510080</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Wen Jun" sort="Zhang, Wen Jun" uniqKey="Zhang W" first="Wen-Jun" last="Zhang">Wen-Jun Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biological Science and Technology, School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biological Science and Technology, School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Guangdong 510080</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Guo, Cheng" sort="Guo, Cheng" uniqKey="Guo C" first="Cheng" last="Guo">Cheng Guo</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10032, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10032</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université Columbia</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">New York</settlement><region type="state">État de New York</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liao, Cong Hui" sort="Liao, Cong Hui" uniqKey="Liao C" first="Cong-Hui" last="Liao">Cong-Hui Liao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Guangdong 510080</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Qian Lin" sort="Li, Qian Lin" uniqKey="Li Q" first="Qian-Lin" last="Li">Qian-Lin Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Guangdong 510080</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Han, Xiao Hu" sort="Han, Xiao Hu" uniqKey="Han X" first="Xiao-Hu" last="Han">Xiao-Hu Han</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Key Laboratory of Livestock Infectious Diseases in Northeast China, Ministry of Education, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110866, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Key Laboratory of Livestock Infectious Diseases in Northeast China, Ministry of Education, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110866</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Liaoning 110866</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lu, Jia Hai" sort="Lu, Jia Hai" uniqKey="Lu J" first="Jia-Hai" last="Lu">Jia-Hai Lu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Guangdong 510080</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Chinese medical journal</title><idno type="eISSN">2542-5641</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The ongoing new coronavirus pneumonia (Corona Virus Disease 2019, COVID-19) outbreak is spreading in China, but it has not yet reached its peak. Five million people emigrated from Wuhan before lockdown, potentially representing a source of virus infection. Determining case distribution and its correlation with population emigration from Wuhan in the early stage of the epidemic is of great importance for early warning and for the prevention of future outbreaks.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32118644</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>02</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2542-5641</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Feb</Month><Day>28</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Chinese medical journal</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Chin. Med. J.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Distribution of the COVID-19 epidemic and correlation with population emigration from wuhan, China.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1097/CM9.0000000000000782</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">The ongoing new coronavirus pneumonia (Corona Virus Disease 2019, COVID-19) outbreak is spreading in China, but it has not yet reached its peak. Five million people emigrated from Wuhan before lockdown, potentially representing a source of virus infection. Determining case distribution and its correlation with population emigration from Wuhan in the early stage of the epidemic is of great importance for early warning and for the prevention of future outbreaks.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">The official case report on the COVID-19 epidemic was collected as of January 30, 2020. Time and location information on COVID-19 cases was extracted and analyzed using ArcGIS and WinBUGS software. Data on population migration from Wuhan city and Hubei province were extracted from Baidu Qianxi, and their correlation with the number of cases was analyzed.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">The COVID-19 confirmed and death cases in Hubei province accounted for 59.91% (5806/9692) and 95.77% (204/213) of the total cases in China respectively. Hot spot provinces included Sichuan and Yunnan, which are adjacent to Hubei. The time risk of Hubei province on the following day was 1.960 times that on the previous day. The number of cases in some cities was relatively low, but the time risk appeared to be continuously rising. The correlation coefficient between the provincial number of cases and emigration from Wuhan was up to 0.943. The lockdown of 17 cities in Hubei province and the implementation of nationwide control measures efficiently prevented an exponential growth in the number of cases.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">The population that emigrated from Wuhan was the main infection source in other cities and provinces. Some cities with a low number of cases showed a rapid increase in case load. Owing to the upcoming Spring Festival return wave, understanding the risk trends in different regions is crucial to ensure preparedness at both the individual and organization levels and to prevent new outbreaks.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chen</LastName><ForeName>Ze-Liang</ForeName><Initials>ZL</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhang</LastName><ForeName>Qi</ForeName><Initials>Q</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Key Laboratory of Livestock Infectious Diseases in Northeast China, Ministry of Education, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110866, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lu</LastName><ForeName>Yi</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Health Law, Policy and Management, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, 02215, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Guo</LastName><ForeName>Zhong-Min</ForeName><Initials>ZM</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Animal Experiment Center, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhang</LastName><ForeName>Xi</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhang</LastName><ForeName>Wen-Jun</ForeName><Initials>WJ</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Biological Science and Technology, School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Guo</LastName><ForeName>Cheng</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10032, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Liao</LastName><ForeName>Cong-Hui</ForeName><Initials>CH</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Li</LastName><ForeName>Qian-Lin</ForeName><Initials>QL</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Han</LastName><ForeName>Xiao-Hu</ForeName><Initials>XH</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Key Laboratory of Livestock Infectious Diseases in Northeast China, Ministry of Education, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang, Liaoning 110866, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lu</LastName><ForeName>Jia-Hai</ForeName><Initials>JH</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>One Health Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>28</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>China</Country><MedlineTA>Chin Med J (Engl)</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>7513795</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0366-6999</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>3</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>3</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>3</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>aheadofprint</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32118644</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1097/CM9.0000000000000782</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>République populaire de Chine</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>État de New York</li></region><settlement><li>New York</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université Columbia</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Chen, Ze Liang" sort="Chen, Ze Liang" uniqKey="Chen Z" first="Ze-Liang" last="Chen">Ze-Liang Chen</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Guo, Zhong Min" sort="Guo, Zhong Min" uniqKey="Guo Z" first="Zhong-Min" last="Guo">Zhong-Min Guo</name><name sortKey="Han, Xiao Hu" sort="Han, Xiao Hu" uniqKey="Han X" first="Xiao-Hu" last="Han">Xiao-Hu Han</name><name sortKey="Li, Qian Lin" sort="Li, Qian Lin" uniqKey="Li Q" first="Qian-Lin" last="Li">Qian-Lin Li</name><name sortKey="Liao, Cong Hui" sort="Liao, Cong Hui" uniqKey="Liao C" first="Cong-Hui" last="Liao">Cong-Hui Liao</name><name sortKey="Lu, Jia Hai" sort="Lu, Jia Hai" uniqKey="Lu J" first="Jia-Hai" last="Lu">Jia-Hai Lu</name><name sortKey="Zhang, Qi" sort="Zhang, Qi" uniqKey="Zhang Q" first="Qi" last="Zhang">Qi Zhang</name><name sortKey="Zhang, Wen Jun" sort="Zhang, Wen Jun" uniqKey="Zhang W" first="Wen-Jun" last="Zhang">Wen-Jun Zhang</name><name sortKey="Zhang, Xi" sort="Zhang, Xi" uniqKey="Zhang X" first="Xi" last="Zhang">Xi Zhang</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><noRegion><name sortKey="Lu, Yi" sort="Lu, Yi" uniqKey="Lu Y" first="Yi" last="Lu">Yi Lu</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Guo, Cheng" sort="Guo, Cheng" uniqKey="Guo C" first="Cheng" last="Guo">Cheng Guo</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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