Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China.
Identifieur interne : 000230 ( PubMed/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000229; suivant : 000231Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China.
Auteurs : Huwen Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Zezhou Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Yinqiao Dong [République populaire de Chine] ; Ruijie Chang [République populaire de Chine] ; Chen Xu [République populaire de Chine] ; Xiaoyue Yu [République populaire de Chine] ; Shuxian Zhang [République populaire de Chine] ; Lhakpa Tsamlag [République populaire de Chine] ; Meili Shang [République populaire de Chine] ; Jinyan Huang [République populaire de Chine] ; Ying Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Gang Xu [République populaire de Chine] ; Tian Shen [République populaire de Chine] ; Xinxin Zhang [République populaire de Chine] ; Yong Cai [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Cell discovery [ 2056-5968 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
An outbreak of clusters of viral pneumonia due to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2) happened in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China in December 2019. Since the outbreak, several groups reported estimated R0 of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and generated valuable prediction for the early phase of this outbreak. After implementation of strict prevention and control measures in China, new estimation is needed. An infectious disease dynamics SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Removed) model was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Wuhan, China under two assumptions of Rt . In the first assumption, Rt was assumed to maintain over 1. The estimated number of infections would continue to increase throughout February without any indication of dropping with Rt = 1.9, 2.6, or 3.1. The number of infections would reach 11,044, 70,258, and 227,989, respectively, by 29 February 2020. In the second assumption, Rt was assumed to gradually decrease at different phases from high level of transmission (Rt = 3.1, 2.6, and 1.9) to below 1 (Rt = 0.9 or 0.5) owing to increasingly implemented public health intervention. Several phases were divided by the dates when various levels of prevention and control measures were taken in effect in Wuhan. The estimated number of infections would reach the peak in late February, which is 58,077-84,520 or 55,869-81,393. Whether or not the peak of the number of infections would occur in February 2020 may be an important index for evaluating the sufficiency of the current measures taken in China. Regardless of the occurrence of the peak, the currently strict measures in Wuhan should be continuously implemented and necessary strict public health measures should be applied in other locations in China with high number of COVID-19 cases, in order to reduce Rt to an ideal level and control the infection.
DOI: 10.1038/s41421-020-0148-0
PubMed: 32133152
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Links to Exploration step
pubmed:32133152Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China.</title><author><name sortKey="Wang, Huwen" sort="Wang, Huwen" uniqKey="Wang H" first="Huwen" last="Wang">Huwen Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Zezhou" sort="Wang, Zezhou" uniqKey="Wang Z" first="Zezhou" last="Wang">Zezhou Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Cancer Prevention, Shanghai Cancer Center, Fudan University, 200032 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Cancer Prevention, Shanghai Cancer Center, Fudan University, 200032 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200032 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dong, Yinqiao" sort="Dong, Yinqiao" uniqKey="Dong Y" first="Yinqiao" last="Dong">Yinqiao Dong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>4Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, 110122 Shenyang, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>4Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, 110122 Shenyang</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>110122 Shenyang</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chang, Ruijie" sort="Chang, Ruijie" uniqKey="Chang R" first="Ruijie" last="Chang">Ruijie Chang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Chen" sort="Xu, Chen" uniqKey="Xu C" first="Chen" last="Xu">Chen Xu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Xiaoyue" sort="Yu, Xiaoyue" uniqKey="Yu X" first="Xiaoyue" last="Yu">Xiaoyue Yu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Shuxian" sort="Zhang, Shuxian" uniqKey="Zhang S" first="Shuxian" last="Zhang">Shuxian Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tsamlag, Lhakpa" sort="Tsamlag, Lhakpa" uniqKey="Tsamlag L" first="Lhakpa" last="Tsamlag">Lhakpa Tsamlag</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shang, Meili" sort="Shang, Meili" uniqKey="Shang M" first="Meili" last="Shang">Meili Shang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Sanlin Community Health Service Center, 200124 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Sanlin Community Health Service Center, 200124 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200124 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Huang, Jinyan" sort="Huang, Jinyan" uniqKey="Huang J" first="Jinyan" last="Huang">Jinyan Huang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>6State Key Laboratory of Medical Genomics, Shanghai Institute of Hematology, National Research Center for Translational Medicine (Shanghai), Rui-Jin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>6State Key Laboratory of Medical Genomics, Shanghai Institute of Hematology, National Research Center for Translational Medicine (Shanghai), Rui-Jin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Ying" sort="Wang, Ying" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Ying" last="Wang">Ying Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Gang" sort="Xu, Gang" uniqKey="Xu G" first="Gang" last="Xu">Gang Xu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shen, Tian" sort="Shen, Tian" uniqKey="Shen T" first="Tian" last="Shen">Tian Shen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Xinxin" sort="Zhang, Xinxin" uniqKey="Zhang X" first="Xinxin" last="Zhang">Xinxin Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>7Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology, National Research Center for Translational Medicine (Shanghai), Rui-Jin Hospital, and Rui-Jin Hospital North, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>7Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology, National Research Center for Translational Medicine (Shanghai), Rui-Jin Hospital, and Rui-Jin Hospital North, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cai, Yong" sort="Cai, Yong" uniqKey="Cai Y" first="Yong" last="Cai">Yong Cai</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32133152</idno><idno type="pmid">32133152</idno><idno type="doi">10.1038/s41421-020-0148-0</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000280</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000280</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000280</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000280</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000230</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000230</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China.</title><author><name sortKey="Wang, Huwen" sort="Wang, Huwen" uniqKey="Wang H" first="Huwen" last="Wang">Huwen Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Zezhou" sort="Wang, Zezhou" uniqKey="Wang Z" first="Zezhou" last="Wang">Zezhou Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Cancer Prevention, Shanghai Cancer Center, Fudan University, 200032 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Cancer Prevention, Shanghai Cancer Center, Fudan University, 200032 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200032 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dong, Yinqiao" sort="Dong, Yinqiao" uniqKey="Dong Y" first="Yinqiao" last="Dong">Yinqiao Dong</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>4Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, 110122 Shenyang, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>4Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, 110122 Shenyang</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>110122 Shenyang</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chang, Ruijie" sort="Chang, Ruijie" uniqKey="Chang R" first="Ruijie" last="Chang">Ruijie Chang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Chen" sort="Xu, Chen" uniqKey="Xu C" first="Chen" last="Xu">Chen Xu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Xiaoyue" sort="Yu, Xiaoyue" uniqKey="Yu X" first="Xiaoyue" last="Yu">Xiaoyue Yu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Shuxian" sort="Zhang, Shuxian" uniqKey="Zhang S" first="Shuxian" last="Zhang">Shuxian Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tsamlag, Lhakpa" sort="Tsamlag, Lhakpa" uniqKey="Tsamlag L" first="Lhakpa" last="Tsamlag">Lhakpa Tsamlag</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shang, Meili" sort="Shang, Meili" uniqKey="Shang M" first="Meili" last="Shang">Meili Shang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Sanlin Community Health Service Center, 200124 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Sanlin Community Health Service Center, 200124 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200124 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Huang, Jinyan" sort="Huang, Jinyan" uniqKey="Huang J" first="Jinyan" last="Huang">Jinyan Huang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>6State Key Laboratory of Medical Genomics, Shanghai Institute of Hematology, National Research Center for Translational Medicine (Shanghai), Rui-Jin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>6State Key Laboratory of Medical Genomics, Shanghai Institute of Hematology, National Research Center for Translational Medicine (Shanghai), Rui-Jin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Ying" sort="Wang, Ying" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Ying" last="Wang">Ying Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Gang" sort="Xu, Gang" uniqKey="Xu G" first="Gang" last="Xu">Gang Xu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Shen, Tian" sort="Shen, Tian" uniqKey="Shen T" first="Tian" last="Shen">Tian Shen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Xinxin" sort="Zhang, Xinxin" uniqKey="Zhang X" first="Xinxin" last="Zhang">Xinxin Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>7Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology, National Research Center for Translational Medicine (Shanghai), Rui-Jin Hospital, and Rui-Jin Hospital North, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>7Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology, National Research Center for Translational Medicine (Shanghai), Rui-Jin Hospital, and Rui-Jin Hospital North, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cai, Yong" sort="Cai, Yong" uniqKey="Cai Y" first="Yong" last="Cai">Yong Cai</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>200025 Shanghai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Cell discovery</title><idno type="ISSN">2056-5968</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">An outbreak of clusters of viral pneumonia due to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2) happened in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China in December 2019. Since the outbreak, several groups reported estimated <i>R</i><sub>0</sub> of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and generated valuable prediction for the early phase of this outbreak. After implementation of strict prevention and control measures in China, new estimation is needed. An infectious disease dynamics SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Removed) model was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Wuhan, China under two assumptions of <i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> . In the first assumption, <i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> was assumed to maintain over 1. The estimated number of infections would continue to increase throughout February without any indication of dropping with <i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> = 1.9, 2.6, or 3.1. The number of infections would reach 11,044, 70,258, and 227,989, respectively, by 29 February 2020. In the second assumption, <i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> was assumed to gradually decrease at different phases from high level of transmission (<i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> = 3.1, 2.6, and 1.9) to below 1 (<i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> = 0.9 or 0.5) owing to increasingly implemented public health intervention. Several phases were divided by the dates when various levels of prevention and control measures were taken in effect in Wuhan. The estimated number of infections would reach the peak in late February, which is 58,077-84,520 or 55,869-81,393. Whether or not the peak of the number of infections would occur in February 2020 may be an important index for evaluating the sufficiency of the current measures taken in China. Regardless of the occurrence of the peak, the currently strict measures in Wuhan should be continuously implemented and necessary strict public health measures should be applied in other locations in China with high number of COVID-19 cases, in order to reduce <i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> to an ideal level and control the infection.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="PubMed-not-MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32133152</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>08</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic-eCollection"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Print">2056-5968</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Print"><Volume>6</Volume><PubDate><Year>2020</Year></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Cell discovery</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Cell Discov</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>10</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1038/s41421-020-0148-0</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>An outbreak of clusters of viral pneumonia due to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2) happened in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China in December 2019. Since the outbreak, several groups reported estimated <i>R</i><sub>0</sub> of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and generated valuable prediction for the early phase of this outbreak. After implementation of strict prevention and control measures in China, new estimation is needed. An infectious disease dynamics SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Removed) model was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Wuhan, China under two assumptions of <i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> . In the first assumption, <i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> was assumed to maintain over 1. The estimated number of infections would continue to increase throughout February without any indication of dropping with <i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> = 1.9, 2.6, or 3.1. The number of infections would reach 11,044, 70,258, and 227,989, respectively, by 29 February 2020. In the second assumption, <i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> was assumed to gradually decrease at different phases from high level of transmission (<i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> = 3.1, 2.6, and 1.9) to below 1 (<i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> = 0.9 or 0.5) owing to increasingly implemented public health intervention. Several phases were divided by the dates when various levels of prevention and control measures were taken in effect in Wuhan. The estimated number of infections would reach the peak in late February, which is 58,077-84,520 or 55,869-81,393. Whether or not the peak of the number of infections would occur in February 2020 may be an important index for evaluating the sufficiency of the current measures taken in China. Regardless of the occurrence of the peak, the currently strict measures in Wuhan should be continuously implemented and necessary strict public health measures should be applied in other locations in China with high number of COVID-19 cases, in order to reduce <i>R</i><sub><i>t</i></sub> to an ideal level and control the infection.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© The Author(s) 2020.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y" EqualContrib="Y"><LastName>Wang</LastName><ForeName>Huwen</ForeName><Initials>H</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</Affiliation><Identifier Source="ISNI">0000 0004 0368 8293</Identifier><Identifier Source="GRID">grid.16821.3c</Identifier></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y" EqualContrib="Y"><LastName>Wang</LastName><ForeName>Zezhou</ForeName><Initials>Z</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Cancer Prevention, Shanghai Cancer Center, Fudan University, 200032 Shanghai, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>3Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, 200032 Shanghai, China.</Affiliation><Identifier Source="ISNI">0000 0004 0619 8943</Identifier><Identifier Source="GRID">grid.11841.3d</Identifier></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y" EqualContrib="Y"><LastName>Dong</LastName><ForeName>Yinqiao</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>4Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, China Medical University, 110122 Shenyang, China.</Affiliation><Identifier Source="ISNI">0000 0000 9678 1884</Identifier><Identifier Source="GRID">grid.412449.e</Identifier></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y" EqualContrib="Y"><LastName>Chang</LastName><ForeName>Ruijie</ForeName><Initials>R</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</Affiliation><Identifier Source="ISNI">0000 0004 0368 8293</Identifier><Identifier Source="GRID">grid.16821.3c</Identifier></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y" EqualContrib="Y"><LastName>Xu</LastName><ForeName>Chen</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</Affiliation><Identifier Source="ISNI">0000 0004 0368 8293</Identifier><Identifier Source="GRID">grid.16821.3c</Identifier></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y" EqualContrib="Y"><LastName>Yu</LastName><ForeName>Xiaoyue</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</Affiliation><Identifier Source="ISNI">0000 0004 0368 8293</Identifier><Identifier Source="GRID">grid.16821.3c</Identifier></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y" EqualContrib="Y"><LastName>Zhang</LastName><ForeName>Shuxian</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</Affiliation><Identifier Source="ISNI">0000 0004 0368 8293</Identifier><Identifier Source="GRID">grid.16821.3c</Identifier></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y" EqualContrib="Y"><LastName>Tsamlag</LastName><ForeName>Lhakpa</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</Affiliation><Identifier Source="ISNI">0000 0004 0368 8293</Identifier><Identifier Source="GRID">grid.16821.3c</Identifier></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Shang</LastName><ForeName>Meili</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Sanlin Community Health Service Center, 200124 Shanghai, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Huang</LastName><ForeName>Jinyan</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>6State Key Laboratory of Medical Genomics, Shanghai Institute of Hematology, National Research Center for Translational Medicine (Shanghai), Rui-Jin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</Affiliation><Identifier Source="ISNI">0000 0004 0368 8293</Identifier><Identifier Source="GRID">grid.16821.3c</Identifier></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wang</LastName><ForeName>Ying</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</Affiliation><Identifier Source="ISNI">0000 0004 0368 8293</Identifier><Identifier Source="GRID">grid.16821.3c</Identifier></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Xu</LastName><ForeName>Gang</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</Affiliation><Identifier Source="ISNI">0000 0004 0368 8293</Identifier><Identifier Source="GRID">grid.16821.3c</Identifier></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Shen</LastName><ForeName>Tian</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</Affiliation><Identifier Source="ISNI">0000 0004 0368 8293</Identifier><Identifier Source="GRID">grid.16821.3c</Identifier></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhang</LastName><ForeName>Xinxin</ForeName><Initials>X</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>7Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology, National Research Center for Translational Medicine (Shanghai), Rui-Jin Hospital, and Rui-Jin Hospital North, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</Affiliation><Identifier Source="ISNI">0000 0004 0368 8293</Identifier><Identifier Source="GRID">grid.16821.3c</Identifier></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cai</LastName><ForeName>Yong</ForeName><Initials>Y</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>1School of Public Health, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, 200025 Shanghai, China.</Affiliation><Identifier Source="ISNI">0000 0004 0368 8293</Identifier><Identifier Source="GRID">grid.16821.3c</Identifier></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>24</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>Cell Discov</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101661034</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2056-5968</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Autoimmunity</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Immunology</Keyword></KeywordList><CoiStatement>Conflict of interestThe authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>12</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>17</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>6</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>7</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>3</Month><Day>7</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>1</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32133152</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1038/s41421-020-0148-0</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">148</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7039910</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Lancet. 2020 Feb 15;395(10223):514-523</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">31986261</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Bull Math Biol. 2019 Nov;81(11):4343-4365</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">28466232</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Science. 2003 Jun 20;300(5627):1961-6</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">12766206</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>J Theor Biol. 2004 Jul 7;229(1):119-26</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">15178190</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Am J Epidemiol. 2004 Sep 15;160(6):509-16</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">15353409</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>J Theor Biol. 2009 Jul 7;259(1):165-71</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19289133</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Nature. 2020 Feb 3;:</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32015507</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Lancet. 2020 Feb 29;395(10225):689-697</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32014114</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Apr 11;114(15):4023-4028</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">28351976</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Proc Biol Sci. 2003 Jan 22;270(1511):121-7</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">12590749</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>N Engl J Med. 2020 Jan 29;:</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">31995857</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Apr 05;16(7):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">30959783</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Indoor Air. 2006 Dec;16(6):469-81</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17100668</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Conf Proc IEEE Eng Med Biol Soc. 2005;2005:7470-3</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17282008</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2019 Jun 24;374(1775):20180282</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">31056043</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 07;9(2):</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32046137</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>J Epidemiol Community Health. 2006 Jul;60(7):640-5</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">16790838</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Math Biosci. 2013 Nov;246(1):47-54</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">24012502</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Feb;91:264-266</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">31953166</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Lancet. 2020 Feb 15;395(10223):507-513</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32007143</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>J R Soc Interface. 2007 Feb 22;4(12):155-66</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">17254982</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>République populaire de Chine</li></country></list><tree><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Wang, Huwen" sort="Wang, Huwen" uniqKey="Wang H" first="Huwen" last="Wang">Huwen Wang</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Cai, Yong" sort="Cai, Yong" uniqKey="Cai Y" first="Yong" last="Cai">Yong Cai</name><name sortKey="Chang, Ruijie" sort="Chang, Ruijie" uniqKey="Chang R" first="Ruijie" last="Chang">Ruijie Chang</name><name sortKey="Dong, Yinqiao" sort="Dong, Yinqiao" uniqKey="Dong Y" first="Yinqiao" last="Dong">Yinqiao Dong</name><name sortKey="Huang, Jinyan" sort="Huang, Jinyan" uniqKey="Huang J" first="Jinyan" last="Huang">Jinyan Huang</name><name sortKey="Shang, Meili" sort="Shang, Meili" uniqKey="Shang M" first="Meili" last="Shang">Meili Shang</name><name sortKey="Shen, Tian" sort="Shen, Tian" uniqKey="Shen T" first="Tian" last="Shen">Tian Shen</name><name sortKey="Tsamlag, Lhakpa" sort="Tsamlag, Lhakpa" uniqKey="Tsamlag L" first="Lhakpa" last="Tsamlag">Lhakpa Tsamlag</name><name sortKey="Wang, Ying" sort="Wang, Ying" uniqKey="Wang Y" first="Ying" last="Wang">Ying Wang</name><name sortKey="Wang, Zezhou" sort="Wang, Zezhou" uniqKey="Wang Z" first="Zezhou" last="Wang">Zezhou Wang</name><name sortKey="Xu, Chen" sort="Xu, Chen" uniqKey="Xu C" first="Chen" last="Xu">Chen Xu</name><name sortKey="Xu, Gang" sort="Xu, Gang" uniqKey="Xu G" first="Gang" last="Xu">Gang Xu</name><name sortKey="Yu, Xiaoyue" sort="Yu, Xiaoyue" uniqKey="Yu X" first="Xiaoyue" last="Yu">Xiaoyue Yu</name><name sortKey="Zhang, Shuxian" sort="Zhang, Shuxian" uniqKey="Zhang S" first="Shuxian" last="Zhang">Shuxian Zhang</name><name sortKey="Zhang, Xinxin" sort="Zhang, Xinxin" uniqKey="Zhang X" first="Xinxin" last="Zhang">Xinxin Zhang</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Wicri/Sante/explor/CovidV1/Data/PubMed/Checkpoint
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000230 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Checkpoint/biblio.hfd -nk 000230 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Wicri/Sante
|area= CovidV1
|flux= PubMed
|étape= Checkpoint
|type= RBID
|clé= pubmed:32133152
|texte= Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China.
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Checkpoint/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:32133152" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/PubMed/Checkpoint/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a CovidV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |