Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea
Identifieur interne : 000675 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000674; suivant : 000676Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea
Auteurs : Zhi-Qiang Xia [République populaire de Chine] ; Juan Zhang [République populaire de Chine] ; Ya-Kui Xue [République populaire de Chine] ; Gui-Quan Sun [République populaire de Chine] ; Zhen Jin [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- PLoS ONE [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2015.
Abstract
The 2015 epidemic of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea has been the largest outbreak outside Middle East. This epidemic had caused 185 laboratory-confirmed cases and 36 deaths in the Republic of Korea until September 2, 2015, which attracted public’s attention. Based on the detailed data of patients released by World Health Organization (WHO) and actual propagation of the epidemic, we construct two dynamical models to simulate the propagation processes from May 20 to June 8 and from June 9 to July 10, 2015, respectively and find that the basic reproduction number
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DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0144778
PubMed: 26690750
PubMed Central: 4686901
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030051</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sun, Gui Quan" sort="Sun, Gui Quan" uniqKey="Sun G" first="Gui-Quan" last="Sun">Gui-Quan Sun</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, PR China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jin, Zhen" sort="Jin, Zhen" uniqKey="Jin Z" first="Zhen" last="Jin">Zhen Jin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, PR China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 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wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, PR China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, PR China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Juan" sort="Zhang, Juan" uniqKey="Zhang J" first="Juan" last="Zhang">Juan Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, PR China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xue, Ya Kui" sort="Xue, Ya Kui" uniqKey="Xue Y" first="Ya-Kui" last="Xue">Ya-Kui Xue</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, PR China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sun, Gui Quan" sort="Sun, Gui Quan" uniqKey="Sun G" first="Gui-Quan" last="Sun">Gui-Quan Sun</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, PR China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jin, Zhen" sort="Jin, Zhen" uniqKey="Jin Z" first="Zhen" last="Jin">Zhen Jin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, PR China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS ONE</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2015">2015</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The 2015 epidemic of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea has been the largest outbreak outside Middle East. This epidemic had caused 185 laboratory-confirmed cases and 36 deaths in the Republic of Korea until September 2, 2015, which attracted public’s attention. Based on the detailed data of patients released by World Health Organization (WHO) and actual propagation of the epidemic, we construct two dynamical models to simulate the propagation processes from May 20 to June 8 and from June 9 to July 10, 2015, respectively and find that the basic reproduction number <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> reaches up to 4.422. The numerical analysis shows that the reasons of the outbreak spread quickly are lack of self-protection sense and targeted control measures. Through partial correction analysis, the parameters <italic>β</italic><sub>1</sub> and <italic>γ</italic> have strong correlations with <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>, i.e., the infectivity and proportion of the asymptomatic infected cases have much influence on the spread of disease. By sensitivity analysis, strengthening self-protection ability of susceptible and quickly isolating or monitoring close contacts are effective measures to control the disease.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Xia, S" uniqKey="Xia S">S Xia</name></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, Q" uniqKey="Liu Q">Q Liu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Q" uniqKey="Wang Q">Q Wang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Sun, Zw" uniqKey="Sun Z">ZW Sun</name></author><author><name sortKey="Su, S" uniqKey="Su S">S Su</name></author><author><name sortKey="Du, Ly" uniqKey="Du L">LY Du</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Drosten, C" uniqKey="Drosten C">C Drosten</name></author><author><name sortKey="Seilmaier, M" uniqKey="Seilmaier M">M Seilmaier</name></author><author><name sortKey="Corman, Vm" uniqKey="Corman V">VM Corman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hartmann, W" 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">PLoS One</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">PLoS ONE</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">plos</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">plosone</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>PLoS ONE</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1932-6203</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Public Library of Science</publisher-name><publisher-loc>San Francisco, CA USA</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">26690750</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">4686901</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">PONE-D-15-42754</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0144778</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="running-head">Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Xia</surname><given-names>Zhi-Qiang</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff001"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff002"><sup>2</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Zhang</surname><given-names>Juan</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff002"><sup>2</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Xue</surname><given-names>Ya-Kui</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff001"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor001">*</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Sun</surname><given-names>Gui-Quan</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff002"><sup>2</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor001">*</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Jin</surname><given-names>Zhen</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff002"><sup>2</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor001">*</xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff001"><label>1</label><addr-line>Department of Mathematics, North University of China, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030051, PR China</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff002"><label>2</label><addr-line>Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006, PR China</addr-line></aff><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="editor"><name><surname>Wang</surname><given-names>Zhen</given-names></name><role>Editor</role><xref ref-type="aff" rid="edit1"></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="edit1"><addr-line>Kyushu University, JAPAN</addr-line></aff><author-notes><fn fn-type="COI-statement" id="coi001"><p><bold>Competing Interests: </bold>The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.</p></fn><fn fn-type="con" id="contrib001"><p>Conceived and designed the experiments: JZ GQS. Performed the experiments: ZQX JZ. Analyzed the data: ZQX JZ. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: YKX GQS ZJ. Wrote the paper: ZQX GQS ZJ.</p></fn><corresp id="cor001">* E-mail: <email>xyk5152@163.com</email> (YKX); <email>gquansun@126.com</email> (GQS); <email>jinzhn@263.net</email> (ZJ)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2015</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>21</day><month>12</month><year>2015</year></pub-date><volume>10</volume><issue>12</issue><elocation-id>e0144778</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>28</day><month>9</month><year>2015</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>23</day><month>11</month><year>2015</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>© 2015 Xia et al</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2015</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Xia et al</copyright-holder><license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><license-p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:type="simple" xlink:href="pone.0144778.pdf"></self-uri><abstract><p>The 2015 epidemic of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea has been the largest outbreak outside Middle East. This epidemic had caused 185 laboratory-confirmed cases and 36 deaths in the Republic of Korea until September 2, 2015, which attracted public’s attention. Based on the detailed data of patients released by World Health Organization (WHO) and actual propagation of the epidemic, we construct two dynamical models to simulate the propagation processes from May 20 to June 8 and from June 9 to July 10, 2015, respectively and find that the basic reproduction number <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> reaches up to 4.422. The numerical analysis shows that the reasons of the outbreak spread quickly are lack of self-protection sense and targeted control measures. Through partial correction analysis, the parameters <italic>β</italic><sub>1</sub> and <italic>γ</italic> have strong correlations with <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>, i.e., the infectivity and proportion of the asymptomatic infected cases have much influence on the spread of disease. By sensitivity analysis, strengthening self-protection ability of susceptible and quickly isolating or monitoring close contacts are effective measures to control the disease.</p></abstract><funding-group><funding-statement>The research is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (under grants 11501338, 11171314, 11331009, and 11301490), 131 Talents of Shanxi University, Top Young Academic Leaders of Higher Learning Institutions of Shanxi Province, and International Exchange Program of Postdoctor in Fudan University.</funding-statement></funding-group><counts><fig-count count="7"></fig-count><table-count count="4"></table-count><page-count count="13"></page-count></counts><custom-meta-group><custom-meta id="data-availability"><meta-name>Data Availability</meta-name><meta-value>All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.</meta-value></custom-meta></custom-meta-group></article-meta><notes><title>Data Availability</title><p>All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.</p></notes></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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