Effects of Timely Control Intervention on the Spread of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection
Identifieur interne : 000662 ( Pmc/Curation ); précédent : 000661; suivant : 000663Effects of Timely Control Intervention on the Spread of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection
Auteurs : Ilsu Choi [Corée du Sud] ; Dong Ho Lee [Corée du Sud] ; Yongkuk Kim [Corée du Sud]Source :
- Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives [ 2210-9099 ] ; 2017.
Abstract
The 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in Korea caused major economic and social problems. The control intervention was conducted during the MERS-CoV outbreak in Korea immediately after the confirmation of the index case. This study investigates whether the early risk communication with the general public and mass media is an effective preventive strategy.
The SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model with estimated parameters for the time series data of the daily MERS-CoV incidence in Korea was considered from May to December 2015. For 10,000 stochastic simulations, the SEIR model was computed using the Gillespie algorithm. Depending on the time of control intervention on the 20th, 40th, and 60th days after the identification of the index case, the box plots of MERS-CoV incidences in Korea were computed, and the results were analyzed via ANOVA.
The box plots showed that there was a significant difference between the non-intervention and intervention groups (the 20th day, 40th day, and 60th day groups) and seemed to show no significant difference based on the time of intervention. However, the ANOVA revealed that early intervention was a good strategy to control the disease.
Appropriate risk communication can secure the confidence of the general public in the public health authorities.
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DOI: 10.24171/j.phrp.2017.8.6.03
PubMed: 29354394
PubMed Central: 5749487
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Effects of Timely Control Intervention on the Spread of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection</title><author><name sortKey="Choi, Ilsu" sort="Choi, Ilsu" uniqKey="Choi I" first="Ilsu" last="Choi">Ilsu Choi</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af1-phrp-08-373">Department of Statistics, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Statistics, Chonnam National University, Gwangju</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Dong Ho" sort="Lee, Dong Ho" uniqKey="Lee D" first="Dong Ho" last="Lee">Dong Ho Lee</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2-phrp-08-373">Department of Mathematics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kim, Yongkuk" sort="Kim, Yongkuk" uniqKey="Kim Y" first="Yongkuk" last="Kim">Yongkuk Kim</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2-phrp-08-373">Department of Mathematics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">29354394</idno><idno type="pmc">5749487</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5749487</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:5749487</idno><idno type="doi">10.24171/j.phrp.2017.8.6.03</idno><date when="2017">2017</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000662</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000662</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000662</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000662</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Effects of Timely Control Intervention on the Spread of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection</title><author><name sortKey="Choi, Ilsu" sort="Choi, Ilsu" uniqKey="Choi I" first="Ilsu" last="Choi">Ilsu Choi</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af1-phrp-08-373">Department of Statistics, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Statistics, Chonnam National University, Gwangju</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Dong Ho" sort="Lee, Dong Ho" uniqKey="Lee D" first="Dong Ho" last="Lee">Dong Ho Lee</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2-phrp-08-373">Department of Mathematics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kim, Yongkuk" sort="Kim, Yongkuk" uniqKey="Kim Y" first="Yongkuk" last="Kim">Yongkuk Kim</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="af2-phrp-08-373">Department of Mathematics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Korea</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives</title><idno type="ISSN">2210-9099</idno><idno type="eISSN">2233-6052</idno><imprint><date when="2017">2017</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Objectives</title><p>The 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in Korea caused major economic and social problems. The control intervention was conducted during the MERS-CoV outbreak in Korea immediately after the confirmation of the index case. This study investigates whether the early risk communication with the general public and mass media is an effective preventive strategy.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>The SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model with estimated parameters for the time series data of the daily MERS-CoV incidence in Korea was considered from May to December 2015. For 10,000 stochastic simulations, the SEIR model was computed using the Gillespie algorithm. Depending on the time of control intervention on the 20th, 40th, and 60th days after the identification of the index case, the box plots of MERS-CoV incidences in Korea were computed, and the results were analyzed via ANOVA.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>The box plots showed that there was a significant difference between the non-intervention and intervention groups (the 20th day, 40th day, and 60th day groups) and seemed to show no significant difference based on the time of intervention. However, the ANOVA revealed that early intervention was a good strategy to control the disease.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusion</title><p>Appropriate risk communication can secure the confidence of the general public in the public health authorities.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hsieh, Yh" uniqKey="Hsieh Y">YH Hsieh</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Kim, Y" uniqKey="Kim Y">Y Kim</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, S" uniqKey="Lee S">S Lee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chu, C" uniqKey="Chu C">C Chu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lee, J" uniqKey="Lee J">J Lee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G Chowell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Jung, E" uniqKey="Jung E">E Jung</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Mizumoto, K" uniqKey="Mizumoto K">K Mizumoto</name></author><author><name sortKey="Saitoh, M" uniqKey="Saitoh M">M Saitoh</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G Chowell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Park, Hy" uniqKey="Park H">HY Park</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lee, Ej" uniqKey="Lee E">EJ Lee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ryu, Yw" uniqKey="Ryu Y">YW Ryu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Stone, L" uniqKey="Stone L">L Stone</name></author><author><name sortKey="Shulgin, B" uniqKey="Shulgin B">B Shulgin</name></author><author><name sortKey="Agur, Z" uniqKey="Agur Z">Z Agur</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Virlogeux, V" uniqKey="Virlogeux V">V Virlogeux</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fang, Vj" uniqKey="Fang V">VJ Fang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Park, M" uniqKey="Park M">M Park</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Virlogeux, V" uniqKey="Virlogeux V">V Virlogeux</name></author><author><name sortKey="Park, M" uniqKey="Park M">M Park</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Jt" uniqKey="Wu J">JT Wu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Xia, Zq" uniqKey="Xia Z">ZQ Xia</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zhang, J" uniqKey="Zhang J">J Zhang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Xue, Yk" uniqKey="Xue Y">YK Xue</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lee, Dh" uniqKey="Lee D">DH Lee</name></author><author><name sortKey="Masud, Ma" uniqKey="Masud M">MA Masud</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kim, Bn" uniqKey="Kim B">BN Kim</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Gillespie, Dt" uniqKey="Gillespie D">DT Gillespie</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Osong Public Health Res Perspect</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Osong Public Health Res Perspect</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">kphrp1</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2210-9099</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2233-6052</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">29354394</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">5749487</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24171/j.phrp.2017.8.6.03</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">phrp-08-373</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Original Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Effects of Timely Control Intervention on the Spread of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Choi</surname><given-names>Ilsu</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af1-phrp-08-373">a</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Lee</surname><given-names>Dong Ho</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af2-phrp-08-373">b</xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Kim</surname><given-names>Yongkuk</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="af2-phrp-08-373">b</xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="c1-phrp-08-373"></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="af1-phrp-08-373"><label>a</label>Department of Statistics, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, Korea</aff><aff id="af2-phrp-08-373"><label>b</label>Department of Mathematics, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Korea</aff><author-notes><corresp id="c1-phrp-08-373">Corresponding author: Yongkuk Kim, E-mail: <email>yongkuk@knu.ac.kr</email></corresp></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>12</month><year>2017</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>31</day><month>12</month><year>2017</year></pub-date><volume>8</volume><issue>6</issue><fpage>373</fpage><lpage>376</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>05</day><month>9</month><year>2017</year></date><date date-type="rev-recd"><day>02</day><month>11</month><year>2017</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>09</day><month>11</month><year>2017</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright ©2017, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2017</copyright-year><license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/"><license-p><pmc-comment>CREATIVE COMMONS</pmc-comment>This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/</ext-link>).</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><sec><title>Objectives</title><p>The 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreak in Korea caused major economic and social problems. The control intervention was conducted during the MERS-CoV outbreak in Korea immediately after the confirmation of the index case. This study investigates whether the early risk communication with the general public and mass media is an effective preventive strategy.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>The SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model with estimated parameters for the time series data of the daily MERS-CoV incidence in Korea was considered from May to December 2015. For 10,000 stochastic simulations, the SEIR model was computed using the Gillespie algorithm. Depending on the time of control intervention on the 20th, 40th, and 60th days after the identification of the index case, the box plots of MERS-CoV incidences in Korea were computed, and the results were analyzed via ANOVA.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>The box plots showed that there was a significant difference between the non-intervention and intervention groups (the 20th day, 40th day, and 60th day groups) and seemed to show no significant difference based on the time of intervention. However, the ANOVA revealed that early intervention was a good strategy to control the disease.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusion</title><p>Appropriate risk communication can secure the confidence of the general public in the public health authorities.</p></sec></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>infectious disease transmission</kwd><kwd>basic reproduction number</kwd><kwd>Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><floats-group><fig id="f1-phrp-08-373" orientation="portrait" position="float"><label>Figure 1</label><caption><p>Box plot for the control interventions according to the number of days (A, 100 days; B, 200 days; C, 300 days; D, 400 days) after the identification of the index case.</p></caption><graphic xlink:href="phrp-08-373f1"></graphic></fig><table-wrap id="t1-phrp-08-373" orientation="portrait" position="float"><label>Table 1</label><caption><p>Results of the ANOVA according to the day of intervention after the identification of the index case</p></caption><table frame="hsides" rules="groups"><thead><tr><th valign="bottom" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Variable</th><th valign="bottom" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">Data</th><th valign="bottom" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">ANOVA (F-value)<xref rid="tfn2-phrp-08-373" ref-type="table-fn">a</xref></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">The 100th day</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">231.72</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> No control</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">23.0017 ± 30.1585</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" valign="bottom" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> The 20th day control</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">9.4533 ± 14.3353</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" valign="bottom" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> The 40th day control</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">11.4083 ± 16.0851</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" valign="bottom" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> The 60th day control</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">14.5683 ± 19.9566</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" valign="bottom" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">The 200th day</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">108.49</td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" valign="bottom" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> No control</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">52.6752 ± 82.3164</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" valign="bottom" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> The 20th day control</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">7.3237 ± 16.8129</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" valign="bottom" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> The 40th day control</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">8.6575 ± 18.1072</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" valign="bottom" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> The 60th day control</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">11.2189 ± 21.7501</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" valign="bottom" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">The 300th day</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">66.99</td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" valign="bottom" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> No control</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">106.4571 ± 164.5254</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" valign="bottom" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> The 20th day control</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">5.5167 ± 16.7547</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" valign="bottom" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> The 40th day control</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">6.3517 ± 17.2051</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" valign="bottom" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> The 60th day control</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">8.4170 ± 20.5291</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" valign="bottom" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1">The 400th day</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">38.18</td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" valign="bottom" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> No control</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">172.5906 ± 241.5982</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" valign="bottom" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> The 20th day control</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">3.9101 ± 14.7193</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" valign="bottom" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> The 40th day control</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">4.4760 ± 15.3066</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="3" valign="bottom" align="left" rowspan="1"><hr></hr></td></tr><tr><td valign="top" align="left" rowspan="1" colspan="1"> The 60th day control</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1">5.8240 ± 17.5711</td><td valign="top" align="center" rowspan="1" colspan="1"></td></tr></tbody></table><table-wrap-foot><fn id="tfn1-phrp-08-373"><p>Value are presented as mean ± standard deviation.</p></fn><fn id="tfn2-phrp-08-373"><label>a</label><p>Degree of freedom (d.f.) 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