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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis</title><author><name sortKey="Yang, Shu" sort="Yang, Shu" uniqKey="Yang S" first="Shu" last="Yang">Shu Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">College of Medical Information Engineering,<institution>Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine</institution>,<addr-line>Chengdu 611137</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Digital Institute of Medicine,<institution>Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine</institution>,<addr-line>Chengdu 611137</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cao, Peihua" sort="Cao, Peihua" uniqKey="Cao P" first="Peihua" last="Cao">Peihua Cao</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3">Clinical Research Center, Zhujiang Hospital,<institution>Southern Medical University</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510280</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Du, Peipei" sort="Du, Peipei" uniqKey="Du P" first="Peipei" last="Du">Peipei Du</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4">School of Public Health,<institution>Chengdu Medical College</institution>,<addr-line>Chengdu 610500</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Ziting" sort="Wu, Ziting" uniqKey="Wu Z" first="Ziting" last="Wu">Ziting Wu</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5">School of Public Health,<institution>Peking University</institution>,<addr-line>Beijing 100191</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6">School of Public Health,<institution>Yale University</institution>,<addr-line>New Haven, CT</addr-line>,<country>USA</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhuang, Zian" sort="Zhuang, Zian" uniqKey="Zhuang Z" first="Zian" last="Zhuang">Zian Zhuang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff7">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Lin" sort="Yang, Lin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lin" last="Yang">Lin Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff8">School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Xuan" sort="Yu, Xuan" uniqKey="Yu X" first="Xuan" last="Yu">Xuan Yu</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff9">Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences,<institution>Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhou, Qi" sort="Zhou, Qi" uniqKey="Zhou Q" first="Qi" last="Zhou">Qi Zhou</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff10"><institution>The First Clinical Medical College of Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Feng, Xixi" sort="Feng, Xixi" uniqKey="Feng X" first="Xixi" last="Feng">Xixi Feng</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4">School of Public Health,<institution>Chengdu Medical College</institution>,<addr-line>Chengdu 610500</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Xiaohui" sort="Wang, Xiaohui" uniqKey="Wang X" first="Xiaohui" last="Wang">Xiaohui Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff11">School of Public Health,<institution>Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Weiguo" sort="Li, Weiguo" uniqKey="Li W" first="Weiguo" last="Li">Weiguo Li</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff12">Department of Respiratory, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders,<institution>Children’s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University</institution>,<addr-line>Chongqing 400014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff13"><institution>Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics</institution>,<addr-line>Chongqing 400014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, Enmei" sort="Liu, Enmei" uniqKey="Liu E" first="Enmei" last="Liu">Enmei Liu</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff12">Department of Respiratory, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders,<institution>Children’s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University</institution>,<addr-line>Chongqing 400014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff13"><institution>Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics</institution>,<addr-line>Chongqing 400014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Ju" sort="Chen, Ju" uniqKey="Chen J" first="Ju" last="Chen">Ju Chen</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">College of Medical Information Engineering,<institution>Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine</institution>,<addr-line>Chengdu 611137</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Yaolong" sort="Chen, Yaolong" uniqKey="Chen Y" first="Yaolong" last="Chen">Yaolong Chen</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff9">Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences,<institution>Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff14"><institution>WHO Collaborating Centre for Guideline Implementation and Knowledge Translation</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff15"><institution>GIN (Guidelines International Network) Asia</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff16">Key Laboratory of Evidence Based Medicine and Knowledge Translation of Gansu Province,<institution>Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff7">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmc">7049028</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7049028</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7049028</idno><idno type="doi">10.21037/atm.2020.02.66</idno><idno type="pmid">NONE</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000415</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000415</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis</title><author><name sortKey="Yang, Shu" sort="Yang, Shu" uniqKey="Yang S" first="Shu" last="Yang">Shu Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">College of Medical Information Engineering,<institution>Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine</institution>,<addr-line>Chengdu 611137</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff2">Digital Institute of Medicine,<institution>Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine</institution>,<addr-line>Chengdu 611137</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cao, Peihua" sort="Cao, Peihua" uniqKey="Cao P" first="Peihua" last="Cao">Peihua Cao</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3">Clinical Research Center, Zhujiang Hospital,<institution>Southern Medical University</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510280</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Du, Peipei" sort="Du, Peipei" uniqKey="Du P" first="Peipei" last="Du">Peipei Du</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4">School of Public Health,<institution>Chengdu Medical College</institution>,<addr-line>Chengdu 610500</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Ziting" sort="Wu, Ziting" uniqKey="Wu Z" first="Ziting" last="Wu">Ziting Wu</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff5">School of Public Health,<institution>Peking University</institution>,<addr-line>Beijing 100191</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff6">School of Public Health,<institution>Yale University</institution>,<addr-line>New Haven, CT</addr-line>,<country>USA</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhuang, Zian" sort="Zhuang, Zian" uniqKey="Zhuang Z" first="Zian" last="Zhuang">Zian Zhuang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff7">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Lin" sort="Yang, Lin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lin" last="Yang">Lin Yang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff8">School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Xuan" sort="Yu, Xuan" uniqKey="Yu X" first="Xuan" last="Yu">Xuan Yu</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff9">Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences,<institution>Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhou, Qi" sort="Zhou, Qi" uniqKey="Zhou Q" first="Qi" last="Zhou">Qi Zhou</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff10"><institution>The First Clinical Medical College of Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Feng, Xixi" sort="Feng, Xixi" uniqKey="Feng X" first="Xixi" last="Feng">Xixi Feng</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4">School of Public Health,<institution>Chengdu Medical College</institution>,<addr-line>Chengdu 610500</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Xiaohui" sort="Wang, Xiaohui" uniqKey="Wang X" first="Xiaohui" last="Wang">Xiaohui Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff11">School of Public Health,<institution>Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Weiguo" sort="Li, Weiguo" uniqKey="Li W" first="Weiguo" last="Li">Weiguo Li</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff12">Department of Respiratory, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders,<institution>Children’s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University</institution>,<addr-line>Chongqing 400014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff13"><institution>Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics</institution>,<addr-line>Chongqing 400014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, Enmei" sort="Liu, Enmei" uniqKey="Liu E" first="Enmei" last="Liu">Enmei Liu</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff12">Department of Respiratory, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders,<institution>Children’s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University</institution>,<addr-line>Chongqing 400014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff13"><institution>Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics</institution>,<addr-line>Chongqing 400014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Ju" sort="Chen, Ju" uniqKey="Chen J" first="Ju" last="Chen">Ju Chen</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">College of Medical Information Engineering,<institution>Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine</institution>,<addr-line>Chengdu 611137</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Yaolong" sort="Chen, Yaolong" uniqKey="Chen Y" first="Yaolong" last="Chen">Yaolong Chen</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff9">Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences,<institution>Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff14"><institution>WHO Collaborating Centre for Guideline Implementation and Knowledge Translation</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff15"><institution>GIN (Guidelines International Network) Asia</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff16">Key Laboratory of Evidence Based Medicine and Knowledge Translation of Gansu Province,<institution>Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff7">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Annals of Translational Medicine</title><idno type="ISSN">2305-5839</idno><idno type="eISSN">2305-5847</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2], named COVID-19, hit a major city of China, Wuhan in December 2019 and subsequently spread to other provinces/regions of China and overseas. Several studies have been done to estimate the basic reproduction number in the early phase of this outbreak, yet there are no reliable estimates of case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 to date.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>In this study, we used a purely data-driven statistical method to estimate the CFR in the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak. Daily numbers of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths were collected from January 10 to February 3, 2020 and divided into three clusters: Wuhan city, other cities of Hubei province, and other provinces of mainland China. Simple linear regression model was applied to estimate the CFR from each cluster.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>We estimated that CFR during the first weeks of the epidemic ranges from 0.15% (95% CI: 0.12–0.18%) in mainland China excluding Hubei through 1.41% (95% CI: 1.38–1.45%) in Hubei province excluding the city of Wuhan to 5.25% (95% CI: 4.98–5.51%) in Wuhan.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Our early estimates suggest that the CFR of COVID-19 is lower than the previous coronavirus epidemics caused by SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV).</p></sec></div></front></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Ann Transl Med</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Ann Transl Med</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ATM</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Annals of Translational Medicine</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2305-5839</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2305-5847</issn><publisher><publisher-name>AME Publishing Company</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">7049028</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">atm-08-04-128</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21037/atm.2020.02.66</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Original Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis</article-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Yang</surname><given-names>Shu</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref><xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="afn2"><sup>#</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Cao</surname><given-names>Peihua</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>3</sup></xref><xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="afn2"><sup>#</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Du</surname><given-names>Peipei</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>4</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wu</surname><given-names>Ziting</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5"><sup>5</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6"><sup>6</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Zhuang</surname><given-names>Zian</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7"><sup>7</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Yang</surname><given-names>Lin</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8"><sup>8</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Yu</surname><given-names>Xuan</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9"><sup>9</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Zhou</surname><given-names>Qi</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10"><sup>10</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Feng</surname><given-names>Xixi</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>4</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Wang</surname><given-names>Xiaohui</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11"><sup>11</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Li</surname><given-names>Weiguo</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12"><sup>12</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13"><sup>13</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Liu</surname><given-names>Enmei</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12"><sup>12</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13"><sup>13</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Chen</surname><given-names>Ju</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name><surname>Chen</surname><given-names>Yaolong</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9"><sup>9</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14"><sup>14</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff15"><sup>15</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff16"><sup>16</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name><surname>He</surname><given-names>Daihai</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7"><sup>7</sup></xref></contrib><on-behalf-of>on behalf of COVID-19 evidence and recommendations working group</on-behalf-of><aff id="aff1"><label>1</label>College of Medical Information Engineering,<institution>Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine</institution>,<addr-line>Chengdu 611137</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff2"><label>2</label>Digital Institute of Medicine,<institution>Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine</institution>,<addr-line>Chengdu 611137</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff3"><label>3</label>Clinical Research Center, Zhujiang Hospital,<institution>Southern Medical University</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510280</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff4"><label>4</label>School of Public Health,<institution>Chengdu Medical College</institution>,<addr-line>Chengdu 610500</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff5"><label>5</label>School of Public Health,<institution>Peking University</institution>,<addr-line>Beijing 100191</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff6"><label>6</label>School of Public Health,<institution>Yale University</institution>,<addr-line>New Haven, CT</addr-line>,<country>USA</country>;</aff><aff id="aff7"><label>7</label>Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff8"><label>8</label>School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff9"><label>9</label>Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences,<institution>Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff10"><label>10</label><institution>The First Clinical Medical College of Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff11"><label>11</label>School of Public Health,<institution>Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff12"><label>12</label>Department of Respiratory, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders,<institution>Children’s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University</institution>,<addr-line>Chongqing 400014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff13"><label>13</label><institution>Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics</institution>,<addr-line>Chongqing 400014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff14"><label>14</label><institution>WHO Collaborating Centre for Guideline Implementation and Knowledge Translation</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff15"><label>15</label><institution>GIN (Guidelines International Network) Asia</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</aff><aff id="aff16"><label>16</label>Key Laboratory of Evidence Based Medicine and Knowledge Translation of Gansu Province,<institution>Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country></aff></contrib-group><author-notes><fn id="afn1"><p><italic>Contributions:</italic> (I) Conception and design: S Yang, P Cao, Y Chen, D He; (II) Administrative support: W Li, E Liu, J Chen, Y Chen; (III) Provision of study materials or patients: P Du, Z Wu, Z Zhuang, X Yu, Q Zhou, X Feng; (IV) Collection and assembly of data: S Yang, P Du, Z Wu; (V) Data analysis and interpretation: S Yang, P Chao, P Du, L Yang, X Wang, Y Chen, D He; (VI) Manuscript writing: All authors; (VII) Final approval of manuscript: All authors.</p></fn><fn id="afn2" fn-type="equal"><label>#</label><p>These authors contributed equally to this work.</p></fn><corresp id="cor1"><italic>Correspondence to:</italic> Yaolong Chen. Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China. Email: <email xlink:href="chenyaolong@lzu.edu.cn">chenyaolong@lzu.edu.cn</email>; Daihai He. Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Email: <email xlink:href="daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk">daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk</email>.</corresp><fn fn-type="COI-statement"><p><italic>Conflicts of Interest:</italic> The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="epub-ppub"><month>2</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><pmc-comment>Fake ppub date generated by PMC from publisher
pub-date/@pub-type='epub-ppub' </pmc-comment>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><month>2</month><year>2020</year></pub-date><volume>8</volume><issue>4</issue><elocation-id>128</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>09</day><month>2</month><year>2020</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>12</day><month>2</month><year>2020</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>2020 Annals of Translational Medicine. All rights reserved.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2020</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Annals of Translational Medicine.</copyright-holder></permissions><abstract><sec><title>Background</title><p>An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2], named COVID-19, hit a major city of China, Wuhan in December 2019 and subsequently spread to other provinces/regions of China and overseas. Several studies have been done to estimate the basic reproduction number in the early phase of this outbreak, yet there are no reliable estimates of case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 to date.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>In this study, we used a purely data-driven statistical method to estimate the CFR in the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak. Daily numbers of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths were collected from January 10 to February 3, 2020 and divided into three clusters: Wuhan city, other cities of Hubei province, and other provinces of mainland China. Simple linear regression model was applied to estimate the CFR from each cluster.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>We estimated that CFR during the first weeks of the epidemic ranges from 0.15% (95% CI: 0.12–0.18%) in mainland China excluding Hubei through 1.41% (95% CI: 1.38–1.45%) in Hubei province excluding the city of Wuhan to 5.25% (95% CI: 4.98–5.51%) in Wuhan.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Our early estimates suggest that the CFR of COVID-19 is lower than the previous coronavirus epidemics caused by SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV).</p></sec></abstract><kwd-group kwd-group-type="author"><title>Keywords: </title><kwd>2019 novel coronavirus</kwd><kwd>severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)</kwd><kwd>COVID-19</kwd><kwd>case fatality rate (CFR)</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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