Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis.
Identifieur interne : 000936 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 000935; suivant : 000937Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis.
Auteurs : Sheng Zhang [République populaire de Chine] ; Mengyuan Diao [République populaire de Chine] ; Wenbo Yu [République populaire de Chine] ; Lei Pei [République populaire de Chine] ; Zhaofen Lin [République populaire de Chine] ; Dechang Chen [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases [ 1878-3511 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Up to February 16, 2020, 355 cases have been confirmed as having COVID-19 infection on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. It is of crucial importance to estimate the reproductive number (R0) of the novel virus in the early stage of outbreak and make a prediction of daily new cases on the ship.
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.033
PubMed: 32097725
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<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis.</title><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Sheng" sort="Zhang, Sheng" uniqKey="Zhang S" first="Sheng" last="Zhang">Sheng Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Critical Care Medicine, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Critical Care Medicine, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai 200025</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Diao, Mengyuan" sort="Diao, Mengyuan" uniqKey="Diao M" first="Mengyuan" last="Diao">Mengyuan Diao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Critical Care Medicine, Affiliated Hangzhou First People's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310006, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Critical Care Medicine, Affiliated Hangzhou First People's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310006</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Zhejiang 310006</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Wenbo" sort="Yu, Wenbo" uniqKey="Yu W" first="Wenbo" last="Yu">Wenbo Yu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai 200433</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pei, Lei" sort="Pei, Lei" uniqKey="Pei L" first="Lei" last="Pei">Lei Pei</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai 200433</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lin, Zhaofen" sort="Lin, Zhaofen" uniqKey="Lin Z" first="Zhaofen" last="Lin">Zhaofen Lin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Changzheng Hospital, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433, China. Electronic address: linzhaofen@hotmail.com.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Changzheng Hospital, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai 200433</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Dechang" sort="Chen, Dechang" uniqKey="Chen D" first="Dechang" last="Chen">Dechang Chen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Critical Care Medicine, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China. Electronic address: chendechangsh@hotmail.com.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Critical Care Medicine, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai 200025</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32097725</idno><idno type="pmid">32097725</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.033</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000471</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000471</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000471</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Curation">000471</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Checkpoint">000348</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Checkpoint" wicri:step="PubMed">000348</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000936</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis.</title><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Sheng" sort="Zhang, Sheng" uniqKey="Zhang S" first="Sheng" last="Zhang">Sheng Zhang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Critical Care Medicine, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Critical Care Medicine, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai 200025</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Diao, Mengyuan" sort="Diao, Mengyuan" uniqKey="Diao M" first="Mengyuan" last="Diao">Mengyuan Diao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Critical Care Medicine, Affiliated Hangzhou First People's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310006, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Critical Care Medicine, Affiliated Hangzhou First People's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310006</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Zhejiang 310006</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Wenbo" sort="Yu, Wenbo" uniqKey="Yu W" first="Wenbo" last="Yu">Wenbo Yu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai 200433</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pei, Lei" sort="Pei, Lei" uniqKey="Pei L" first="Lei" last="Pei">Lei Pei</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Graduate School, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433, China.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Graduate School, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai 200433</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lin, Zhaofen" sort="Lin, Zhaofen" uniqKey="Lin Z" first="Zhaofen" last="Lin">Zhaofen Lin</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Changzheng Hospital, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433, China. Electronic address: linzhaofen@hotmail.com.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Changzheng Hospital, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai 200433</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Dechang" sort="Chen, Dechang" uniqKey="Chen D" first="Dechang" last="Chen">Dechang Chen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Critical Care Medicine, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China. Electronic address: chendechangsh@hotmail.com.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Critical Care Medicine, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Shanghai 200025</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases</title><idno type="eISSN">1878-3511</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Up to February 16, 2020, 355 cases have been confirmed as having COVID-19 infection on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. It is of crucial importance to estimate the reproductive number (R0) of the novel virus in the early stage of outbreak and make a prediction of daily new cases on the ship.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32097725</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>14</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1878-3511</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>93</Volume><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Feb</Month><Day>22</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Int. J. Infect. Dis.</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>201-204</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S1201-9712(20)30091-6</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.033</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUNDS" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">Up to February 16, 2020, 355 cases have been confirmed as having COVID-19 infection on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. It is of crucial importance to estimate the reproductive number (R0) of the novel virus in the early stage of outbreak and make a prediction of daily new cases on the ship.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHOD" NlmCategory="METHODS">We fitted the reported serial interval (mean and standard deviation) with a gamma distribution and applied "earlyR" package in R to estimate the R0 in the early stage of COVID-19 outbreak. We applied "projections" package in R to simulate the plausible cumulative epidemic trajectories and future daily incidence by fitting the data of existing daily incidence, a serial interval distribution, and the estimated R0 into a model based on the assumption that daily incidence obeys approximately Poisson distribution determined by daily infectiousness.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">The Maximum-Likelihood (ML) value of R0 was 2.28 for COVID-19 outbreak at the early stage on the ship. The median with 95% confidence interval (CI) of R0 values was 2.28 (2.06-2.52) estimated by the bootstrap resampling method. The probable number of new cases for the next ten days would gradually increase, and the estimated cumulative cases would reach 1514 (1384-1656) at the tenth day in the future. However, if R0 value was reduced by 25% and 50%, the estimated total number of cumulative cases would be reduced to 1081 (981-1177) and 758 (697-817), respectively.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSION" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">The median with 95% CI of R0 of COVID-19 was about 2.28 (2.06-2.52) during the early stage experienced on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. The future daily incidence and probable outbreak size is largely dependent on the change of R0. Unless strict infection management and control are taken, our findings indicate the potential of COVID-19 to cause greater outbreak on the ship.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Zhang</LastName><ForeName>Sheng</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Critical Care Medicine, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Diao</LastName><ForeName>MengYuan</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Critical Care Medicine, Affiliated Hangzhou First People's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310006, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Yu</LastName><ForeName>Wenbo</ForeName><Initials>W</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Pei</LastName><ForeName>Lei</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Graduate School, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433, China.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lin</LastName><ForeName>Zhaofen</ForeName><Initials>Z</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Changzheng Hospital, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai 200433, China. Electronic address: linzhaofen@hotmail.com.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chen</LastName><ForeName>Dechang</ForeName><Initials>D</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Critical Care Medicine, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China. Electronic address: chendechangsh@hotmail.com.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>22</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Canada</Country><MedlineTA>Int J Infect Dis</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>9610933</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1201-9712</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Epidemiology</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Mathematical model</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Reproductive number</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>15</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>17</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>18</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>26</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>26</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>26</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>aheadofprint</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32097725</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">S1201-9712(20)30091-6</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.033</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>République populaire de Chine</li></country></list><tree><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Zhang, Sheng" sort="Zhang, Sheng" uniqKey="Zhang S" first="Sheng" last="Zhang">Sheng Zhang</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Chen, Dechang" sort="Chen, Dechang" uniqKey="Chen D" first="Dechang" last="Chen">Dechang Chen</name><name sortKey="Diao, Mengyuan" sort="Diao, Mengyuan" uniqKey="Diao M" first="Mengyuan" last="Diao">Mengyuan Diao</name><name sortKey="Lin, Zhaofen" sort="Lin, Zhaofen" uniqKey="Lin Z" first="Zhaofen" last="Lin">Zhaofen Lin</name><name sortKey="Pei, Lei" sort="Pei, Lei" uniqKey="Pei L" first="Lei" last="Pei">Lei Pei</name><name sortKey="Yu, Wenbo" sort="Yu, Wenbo" uniqKey="Yu W" first="Wenbo" last="Yu">Wenbo Yu</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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