[Estimating the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China].
Identifieur interne : 000057 ( Main/Curation ); précédent : 000056; suivant : 000058[Estimating the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China].
Auteurs : Y. Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; X Y You [République populaire de Chine] ; Y J Wang ; L P Peng [République populaire de Chine] ; Z C Du [République populaire de Chine] ; S. Gilmour ; D. Yoneoka ; J. Gu [République populaire de Chine] ; C. Hao [République populaire de Chine] ; Y T Hao [République populaire de Chine] ; J H Li [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi = Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi [ 0254-6450 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Objective: The number of confirmed and suspected cases of the COVID-19 in Hubei province is still increasing. However, the estimations of the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 varied greatly across studies. The objectives of this study are 1) to estimate the basic reproduction number (R(0)) of COVID-19 reflecting the infectiousness of the virus and 2) to assess the effectiveness of a range of controlling intervention. Method: The reported number of daily confirmed cases from January 17 to February 8, 2020 in Hubei province were collected and used for model fit. Four methods, the exponential growth (EG), maximum likelihood estimation (ML), sequential Bayesian method (SB) and time dependent reproduction numbers (TD), were applied to estimate the R(0). Result: Among the four methods, the EG method fitted the data best. The estimated R(0) was 3.49 (95% CI: 3.42-3.58) by using EG method. The R(0) was estimated to be 2.95 (95%CI: 2.86-3.03) after taking control measures. Conclusion: In the early stage of the epidemic, it is appropriate to estimate R(0) using the EG method. Meanwhile, timely and effective control measures were warranted to further reduce the spread of COVID-19.
DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200210-00086
PubMed: 32125128
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Y J Wang<affiliation><nlm:affiliation>School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke's International University, Tokyo, Japan 104-0045.</nlm:affiliation>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><b>Objective:</b>
The number of confirmed and suspected cases of the COVID-19 in Hubei province is still increasing. However, the estimations of the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 varied greatly across studies. The objectives of this study are 1) to estimate the basic reproduction number (<i>R(0)</i>
) of COVID-19 reflecting the infectiousness of the virus and 2) to assess the effectiveness of a range of controlling intervention. <b>Method:</b>
The reported number of daily confirmed cases from January 17 to February 8, 2020 in Hubei province were collected and used for model fit. Four methods, the exponential growth (EG), maximum likelihood estimation (ML), sequential Bayesian method (SB) and time dependent reproduction numbers (TD), were applied to estimate the <i>R(0)</i>
. <b>Result:</b>
Among the four methods, the EG method fitted the data best. The estimated <i>R(0)</i>
was 3.49 (95% <i>CI</i>
: 3.42-3.58) by using EG method. The <i>R(0)</i>
was estimated to be 2.95 (95%<i>CI</i>
: 2.86-3.03) after taking control measures. <b>Conclusion:</b>
In the early stage of the epidemic, it is appropriate to estimate <i>R(0)</i>
using the EG method. Meanwhile, timely and effective control measures were warranted to further reduce the spread of COVID-19.</div>
</front>
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