Rapid Estimation of Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Portugal -Beyond Reported Deaths.
Identifieur interne : 000151 ( Main/Curation ); précédent : 000150; suivant : 000152Rapid Estimation of Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Portugal -Beyond Reported Deaths.
Auteurs : André Vieira [Portugal] ; Vasco Ricoca Peixoto [Portugal] ; Pedro Aguiar [Portugal] ; Alexandre Abrantes [Portugal]Source :
- Journal of epidemiology and global health [ 2210-6014 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Facteurs âges (MeSH), Femelle (MeSH), Humains (MeSH), Infections à coronavirus (mortalité), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Mortalité (MeSH), Mâle (MeSH), Pandémies (statistiques et données numériques), Pneumopathie virale (mortalité), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Portugal (épidémiologie), Sujet âgé (MeSH), Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus (MeSH).
- MESH :
- mortalité : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale.
- statistiques et données numériques : Pandémies.
- épidémiologie : Infections à coronavirus, Pneumopathie virale, Portugal.
- Betacoronavirus, Facteurs âges, Femelle, Humains, Mortalité, Mâle, Sujet âgé, Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Portugal.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Age Factors (MeSH), Aged (MeSH), Aged, 80 and over (MeSH), Betacoronavirus (MeSH), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (mortality), Female (MeSH), Humans (MeSH), Male (MeSH), Mortality (MeSH), Pandemics (statistics & numerical data), Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (mortality), Portugal (epidemiology).
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Portugal.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- mortality : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- statistics & numerical data : Pandemics.
- Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Betacoronavirus, Female, Humans, Male, Mortality.
Abstract
BACKGROUND
One month after the first COVID-19 infection was recorded, Portugal counted 18,051 cases and 599 deaths from COVID-19. To understand the overall impact on mortality of the pandemic of COVID-19, we estimated the excess mortality registered in Portugal during the first month of the epidemic, from March 16 until April 14 using two different methods.
METHODS
We compared the observed and expected daily deaths (historical average number from daily death registrations in the past 10 years) and used 2 standard deviations confidence limit for all-cause mortality by age and specific mortality cause, considering the last 6 years. An adapted Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was also tested to validate the estimated number of all-cause deaths during the study period.
RESULTS
Between March 16 and April 14, there was an excess of 1255 all-cause deaths, 14% more than expected. The number of daily deaths often surpassed the 2 standard deviations confidence limit. The excess mortality occurred mostly in people aged 75+. Forty-nine percent (49%) of the estimated excess deaths were registered as due to COVID-19, the other 51% registered as other natural causes.
CONCLUSION
Even though Portugal took early containment measures against COVID-19, and the population complied massively with those measures, there was significant excess mortality during the first month of the pandemic, mostly among people aged 75+. Only half of the excess mortality was registered as directly due do COVID-19.
KEY POINTS
An Excess Mortality (EM) of 1255 deaths were estimated 1 month after the first death classified by COVID-19, and it would probably be more if the government had not taken early action.
The age group where a significant increase in mortality was noted was above 75 years.
51% of the EM was due to natural causes other than COVID-19.
DOI: 10.2991/jegh.k.200628.001
PubMed: 32954711
PubMed Central: PMC7509098
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wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Public Health Research Centre, NOVA National School of Public Health, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Portugal.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Portugal</country><wicri:regionArea>Public Health Research Centre, NOVA National School of Public Health, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Public Health Unit, North Lisbon Health Centers, Lisbon, Portugal.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Portugal</country><wicri:regionArea>Public Health Unit, North Lisbon Health Centers, Lisbon</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Aguiar, Pedro" sort="Aguiar, Pedro" uniqKey="Aguiar P" first="Pedro" last="Aguiar">Pedro Aguiar</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Public Health Research Centre, NOVA National School of Public Health, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Portugal.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Portugal</country><wicri:regionArea>Public Health Research Centre, NOVA National School of Public Health, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Abrantes, Alexandre" sort="Abrantes, Alexandre" uniqKey="Abrantes A" first="Alexandre" last="Abrantes">Alexandre Abrantes</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Public Health Research Centre, NOVA National School of Public Health, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Portugal.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Portugal</country><wicri:regionArea>Public Health Research Centre, NOVA National School of Public Health, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of epidemiology and global health</title><idno type="eISSN">2210-6014</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Age Factors (MeSH)</term><term>Aged (MeSH)</term><term>Aged, 80 and over (MeSH)</term><term>Betacoronavirus (MeSH)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (mortality)</term><term>Female (MeSH)</term><term>Humans (MeSH)</term><term>Male (MeSH)</term><term>Mortality (MeSH)</term><term>Pandemics (statistics & numerical data)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (mortality)</term><term>Portugal (epidemiology)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Betacoronavirus (MeSH)</term><term>Facteurs âges (MeSH)</term><term>Femelle (MeSH)</term><term>Humains (MeSH)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (mortalité)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term><term>Mortalité (MeSH)</term><term>Mâle (MeSH)</term><term>Pandémies (statistiques et données numériques)</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (mortalité)</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie)</term><term>Portugal (épidémiologie)</term><term>Sujet âgé (MeSH)</term><term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Portugal</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortalité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistics & numerical data" xml:lang="en"><term>Pandemics</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="statistiques et données numériques" xml:lang="fr"><term>Pandémies</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term><term>Portugal</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Age Factors</term><term>Aged</term><term>Aged, 80 and over</term><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>Female</term><term>Humans</term><term>Male</term><term>Mortality</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>Facteurs âges</term><term>Femelle</term><term>Humains</term><term>Mortalité</term><term>Mâle</term><term>Sujet âgé</term><term>Sujet âgé de 80 ans ou plus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Portugal</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>BACKGROUND</b></p><p>One month after the first COVID-19 infection was recorded, Portugal counted 18,051 cases and 599 deaths from COVID-19. To understand the overall impact on mortality of the pandemic of COVID-19, we estimated the excess mortality registered in Portugal during the first month of the epidemic, from March 16 until April 14 using two different methods.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>METHODS</b></p><p>We compared the observed and expected daily deaths (historical average number from daily death registrations in the past 10 years) and used 2 standard deviations confidence limit for all-cause mortality by age and specific mortality cause, considering the last 6 years. An adapted Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was also tested to validate the estimated number of all-cause deaths during the study period.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>RESULTS</b></p><p>Between March 16 and April 14, there was an excess of 1255 all-cause deaths, 14% more than expected. The number of daily deaths often surpassed the 2 standard deviations confidence limit. The excess mortality occurred mostly in people aged 75+. Forty-nine percent (49%) of the estimated excess deaths were registered as due to COVID-19, the other 51% registered as other natural causes.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSION</b></p><p>Even though Portugal took early containment measures against COVID-19, and the population complied massively with those measures, there was significant excess mortality during the first month of the pandemic, mostly among people aged 75+. Only half of the excess mortality was registered as directly due do COVID-19.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>KEY POINTS</b></p><p></p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">An Excess Mortality (EM) of 1255 deaths were estimated 1 month after the first death classified by COVID-19, and it would probably be more if the government had not taken early action.</div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The age group where a significant increase in mortality was noted was above 75 years.</div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">51% of the EM was due to natural causes other than COVID-19.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32954711</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>30</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>30</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2210-6014</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>10</Volume><Issue>3</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Sep</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Journal of epidemiology and global health</Title><ISOAbbreviation>J Epidemiol Glob Health</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Rapid Estimation of Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Portugal -Beyond Reported Deaths.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>209-213</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.2991/jegh.k.200628.001</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">One month after the first COVID-19 infection was recorded, Portugal counted 18,051 cases and 599 deaths from COVID-19. To understand the overall impact on mortality of the pandemic of COVID-19, we estimated the excess mortality registered in Portugal during the first month of the epidemic, from March 16 until April 14 using two different methods.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS" NlmCategory="METHODS">We compared the observed and expected daily deaths (historical average number from daily death registrations in the past 10 years) and used 2 standard deviations confidence limit for all-cause mortality by age and specific mortality cause, considering the last 6 years. An adapted Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was also tested to validate the estimated number of all-cause deaths during the study period.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">Between March 16 and April 14, there was an excess of 1255 all-cause deaths, 14% more than expected. The number of daily deaths often surpassed the 2 standard deviations confidence limit. The excess mortality occurred mostly in people aged 75+. Forty-nine percent (49%) of the estimated excess deaths were registered as due to COVID-19, the other 51% registered as other natural causes.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSION" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">Even though Portugal took early containment measures against COVID-19, and the population complied massively with those measures, there was significant excess mortality during the first month of the pandemic, mostly among people aged 75+. Only half of the excess mortality was registered as directly due do COVID-19.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="KEY POINTS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS"></AbstractText><AbstractText>An Excess Mortality (EM) of 1255 deaths were estimated 1 month after the first death classified by COVID-19, and it would probably be more if the government had not taken early action.</AbstractText><AbstractText>The age group where a significant increase in mortality was noted was above 75 years.</AbstractText><AbstractText>51% of the EM was due to natural causes other than COVID-19.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2020 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Vieira</LastName><ForeName>André</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-7462-5535</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Public Health Research Centre, NOVA National School of Public Health, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Portugal.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Peixoto</LastName><ForeName>Vasco Ricoca</ForeName><Initials>VR</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-7529-8206</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Public Health Research Centre, NOVA National School of Public Health, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Portugal.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Public Health Unit, North Lisbon Health Centers, Lisbon, Portugal.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Aguiar</LastName><ForeName>Pedro</ForeName><Initials>P</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-0074-7732</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Public Health Research Centre, NOVA National School of Public Health, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Portugal.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Abrantes</LastName><ForeName>Alexandre</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">0000-0002-1047-3464</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Public Health Research Centre, NOVA National School of Public Health, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Portugal.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D003160">Comparative Study</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>France</Country><MedlineTA>J Epidemiol Glob Health</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101592084</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2210-6006</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><SupplMeshList><SupplMeshName Type="Disease" UI="C000657245">COVID-19</SupplMeshName><SupplMeshName Type="Organism" UI="C000656484">severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2</SupplMeshName></SupplMeshList><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000367" MajorTopicYN="N">Age Factors</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000368" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000369" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged, 80 and over</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000073640" MajorTopicYN="N">Betacoronavirus</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="Y">mortality</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D005260" MajorTopicYN="N">Female</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008297" MajorTopicYN="N">Male</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D009026" MajorTopicYN="Y">Mortality</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemics</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000706" MajorTopicYN="Y">statistics & numerical data</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011024" MajorTopicYN="N">Pneumonia, Viral</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="Y">mortality</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011174" MajorTopicYN="N" Type="Geographic">Portugal</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Portugal</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">disease outbreaks</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">mortality</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">pandemics</Keyword></KeywordList><CoiStatement>The authors declare they have no conflicts interest.</CoiStatement></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>14</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>20</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>21</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>31</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>22</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>10</Month><Day>2</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>ppublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32954711</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">j10/3/209</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.2991/jegh.k.200628.001</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7509098</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>J Epidemiol Community Health. 2012 Oct;66(10):866-8</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">22766783</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Acta Med Port. 2020 Jun 1;33(6):376-383</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32343650</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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