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Projected effects of nonpharmaceutical public health interventions to prevent resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada.

Identifieur interne : 000722 ( Main/Corpus ); précédent : 000721; suivant : 000723

Projected effects of nonpharmaceutical public health interventions to prevent resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada.

Auteurs : Victoria Ng ; Aamir Fazil ; Lisa A. Waddell ; Christina Bancej ; Patricia Turgeon ; Ainsley Otten ; Nicole Atchessi ; Nicholas H. Ogden

Source :

RBID : pubmed:32778573

English descriptors

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Continual efforts to eliminate community transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) will be needed to prevent additional waves of infection. We explored the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada.

METHODS

We developed an age-structured agent-based model of the Canadian population simulating the impact of current and projected levels of public health interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Interventions included case detection and isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, physical distancing and community closures, evaluated alone and in combination.

RESULTS

Without any interventions, 64.6% (95% credible interval [CrI] 63.9%-65.0%) of Canadians will be infected with SARS-CoV-2 (total attack rate) and 3.6% (95% CrI 2.4%-3.8%) of those infected and symptomatic will die. If case detection and contact tracing continued at baseline levels without maintained physical distancing and reimplementation of restrictive measures, this combination brought the total attack rate to 56.1% (95% CrI 0.05%-57.1%), but it dropped to 0.4% (95% CrI 0.03%-23.5%) with enhanced case detection and contact tracing. Combining the latter scenario with maintained physical distancing reduced the total attack rate to 0.2% (95% CrI 0.03%-1.7%) and was the only scenario that consistently kept hospital and intensive care unit bed use under capacity, prevented nearly all deaths and eliminated the epidemic. Extending school closures had minimal effects but did reduce transmission in schools; however, extending closures of workplaces and mixed-age venues markedly reduced attack rates and usually or always eliminated the epidemic under any scenario.

INTERPRETATION

Controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission will depend on enhancing and maintaining interventions at both the community and individual levels. Without such interventions, a resurgent epidemic will occur, with the risk of overwhelming our health care systems.


DOI: 10.1503/cmaj.200990
PubMed: 32778573

Links to Exploration step

pubmed:32778573

Le document en format XML

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<p>
<b>BACKGROUND</b>
</p>
<p>Continual efforts to eliminate community transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) will be needed to prevent additional waves of infection. We explored the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>METHODS</b>
</p>
<p>We developed an age-structured agent-based model of the Canadian population simulating the impact of current and projected levels of public health interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Interventions included case detection and isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, physical distancing and community closures, evaluated alone and in combination.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>RESULTS</b>
</p>
<p>Without any interventions, 64.6% (95% credible interval [CrI] 63.9%-65.0%) of Canadians will be infected with SARS-CoV-2 (total attack rate) and 3.6% (95% CrI 2.4%-3.8%) of those infected and symptomatic will die. If case detection and contact tracing continued at baseline levels without maintained physical distancing and reimplementation of restrictive measures, this combination brought the total attack rate to 56.1% (95% CrI 0.05%-57.1%), but it dropped to 0.4% (95% CrI 0.03%-23.5%) with enhanced case detection and contact tracing. Combining the latter scenario with maintained physical distancing reduced the total attack rate to 0.2% (95% CrI 0.03%-1.7%) and was the only scenario that consistently kept hospital and intensive care unit bed use under capacity, prevented nearly all deaths and eliminated the epidemic. Extending school closures had minimal effects but did reduce transmission in schools; however, extending closures of workplaces and mixed-age venues markedly reduced attack rates and usually or always eliminated the epidemic under any scenario.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>INTERPRETATION</b>
</p>
<p>Controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission will depend on enhancing and maintaining interventions at both the community and individual levels. Without such interventions, a resurgent epidemic will occur, with the risk of overwhelming our health care systems.</p>
</div>
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<AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND">Continual efforts to eliminate community transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) will be needed to prevent additional waves of infection. We explored the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="METHODS">We developed an age-structured agent-based model of the Canadian population simulating the impact of current and projected levels of public health interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Interventions included case detection and isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, physical distancing and community closures, evaluated alone and in combination.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="RESULTS">Without any interventions, 64.6% (95% credible interval [CrI] 63.9%-65.0%) of Canadians will be infected with SARS-CoV-2 (total attack rate) and 3.6% (95% CrI 2.4%-3.8%) of those infected and symptomatic will die. If case detection and contact tracing continued at baseline levels without maintained physical distancing and reimplementation of restrictive measures, this combination brought the total attack rate to 56.1% (95% CrI 0.05%-57.1%), but it dropped to 0.4% (95% CrI 0.03%-23.5%) with enhanced case detection and contact tracing. Combining the latter scenario with maintained physical distancing reduced the total attack rate to 0.2% (95% CrI 0.03%-1.7%) and was the only scenario that consistently kept hospital and intensive care unit bed use under capacity, prevented nearly all deaths and eliminated the epidemic. Extending school closures had minimal effects but did reduce transmission in schools; however, extending closures of workplaces and mixed-age venues markedly reduced attack rates and usually or always eliminated the epidemic under any scenario.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="INTERPRETATION">Controlling SARS-CoV-2 transmission will depend on enhancing and maintaining interventions at both the community and individual levels. Without such interventions, a resurgent epidemic will occur, with the risk of overwhelming our health care systems.</AbstractText>
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<Affiliation>Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ng, Fazil, Waddell, Turgeon, Otten, Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ont., and St. Hyacinthe, Que.; Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (Bancej), Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.; Office of Biosecurity Programs and Planning (Atchessi), Centre for Biosecurity, Health Security Infrastructure Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Ont.</Affiliation>
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<ForeName>Nicholas H</ForeName>
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<Year>2020</Year>
<Month>08</Month>
<Day>09</Day>
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<Country>Canada</Country>
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<NlmUniqueID>9711805</NlmUniqueID>
<ISSNLinking>0820-3946</ISSNLinking>
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<RefSource>CMAJ. 2020 Sep 14;192(37):E1074-E1075</RefSource>
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<DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName>
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<QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="Y">prevention & control</QualifierName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000635" MajorTopicYN="N">transmission</QualifierName>
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<QualifierName UI="Q000517" MajorTopicYN="Y">prevention & control</QualifierName>
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<MeshHeading>
<DescriptorName UI="D010356" MajorTopicYN="Y">Patient Isolation</DescriptorName>
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<MeshHeading>
<DescriptorName UI="D011024" MajorTopicYN="N">Pneumonia, Viral</DescriptorName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000175" MajorTopicYN="N">diagnosis</QualifierName>
<QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="N">epidemiology</QualifierName>
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<MeshHeading>
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<CoiStatement>Competing interests: None declared.</CoiStatement>
</MedlineCitation>
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<Year>2020</Year>
<Month>07</Month>
<Day>21</Day>
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<Month>8</Month>
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<Year>2020</Year>
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<ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1503/cmaj.200990</ArticleId>
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