CovidPsychoV1, Main, Exploration, bibRecord, 000A30

Containment of future waves of COVID-19: simulating the impact of different policies and testing capacities for contact tracing, testing, and isolation.

Identifieur interne : 000A30 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000A29; suivant : 000A31

Containment of future waves of COVID-19: simulating the impact of different policies and testing capacities for contact tracing, testing, and isolation.

Auteurs : Vincenzo G. Fiore [États-Unis] ; Nicholas Defelice [États-Unis] ; Benjamin S. Glicksberg [États-Unis] ; Ofer Perl [États-Unis] ; Anastasia Shuster [États-Unis] ; Kaustubh Kulkarni [États-Unis] ; Madeline O'Brien [États-Unis] ; M Andrea Pisauro [Royaume-Uni] ; Dongil Chung [Corée du Sud] ; Xiaosi Gu [États-Unis]

Source :

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences ; 2020.

RBID : pubmed:32577688

Abstract

We used multi-agent simulations to estimate the testing capacity required to find and isolate a number of infections sufficient to break the chain of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Depending on the mitigation policies in place, a daily capacity between 0.7 to 3.6 tests per thousand was required to contain the disease. However, if contact tracing and testing efficacy dropped below 60% (e.g. due to false negatives or reduced tracing capability), the number of infections kept growing exponentially, irrespective of any testing capacity. Under these conditions, the population's geographical distribution and travel behaviour could inform sampling policies to aid a successful containment.

DOI: 10.1101/2020.06.05.20123372
PubMed: 32577688
PubMed Central: PMC7302294

Affiliations:

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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">We used multi-agent simulations to estimate the testing capacity required to find and isolate a number of infections sufficient to break the chain of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Depending on the mitigation policies in place, a daily capacity between 0.7 to 3.6 tests per thousand was required to contain the disease. However, if contact tracing and testing efficacy dropped below 60% (e.g. due to false negatives or reduced tracing capability), the number of infections kept growing exponentially, irrespective of any testing capacity. Under these conditions, the population's geographical distribution and travel behaviour could inform sampling policies to aid a successful containment.</div>
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Containment of future waves of COVID-19: simulating the impact of different policies and testing capacities for contact tracing, testing, and isolation.

Containment of future waves of COVID-19: simulating the impact of different policies and testing capacities for contact tracing, testing, and isolation.

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