Short‐term propagation of rainfall perturbations on terrestrial ecosystems in central California
Identifieur interne : 000227 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 000226; suivant : 000228Short‐term propagation of rainfall perturbations on terrestrial ecosystems in central California
Auteurs : M Nica García ; J. Litago ; A. Palacios Rueta ; J. E. Pinz N ; L. Ustin SusanSource :
- Applied Vegetation Science [ 1402-2001 ] ; 2010-04.
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- KwdEn :
Abstract
Question: Does vegetation buffer or amplify rainfall perturbations, and is it possible to forecast rainfall using mesoscale climatic signals? Location: Central California (USA). Methods: The risk of dry or wet rainfall events was evaluated using conditional probabilities of rainfall depending on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The propagation of rainfall perturbations on vegetation was calculated using cross‐correlations between monthly seasonally adjusted (SA) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and SA antecedent rainfall at different time‐scales. Results: In this region, El Niño events are associated with higher than normal winter precipitation (probability of 73%). Opposite but more predictable effects are found for La Niña events (89% probability of dry events). Chaparral and evergreen forests showed the longest persistence of rainfall effects (0‐8 months). Grasslands and wetlands showed low persistence (0‐2 months), with wetlands dominated by non‐stationary patterns. Within the region, the NDVI spatial patterns associated with higher (lower) rainfall are homogeneous (heterogeneous), with the exception of evergreen forests. Conclusions: Knowledge of the time‐scale of lagged effects of the non‐seasonal component of rainfall on vegetation greenness, and the risk of winter rainfall anomalies lays the foundation for developing a forecasting model for vegetation greenness. Our results also suggest greater competitive advantage for perennial vegetation in response to potential rainfall increases in the region associated with climate change predictions, provided that the soil allows storing extra rainfall.
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DOI: 10.1111/j.1654-109X.2009.01057.x
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Litago</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing. University of California, Davis, CA 95616 USA</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Depto. de Estadística y Metodos de Gestion en Agricultura. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Agrónomos, ES–28040 Madrid, Spain</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E‐mail javier.litago@upm.es</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Palacios Rueta, A" sort="Palacios Rueta, A" uniqKey="Palacios Rueta A" first="A." last="Palacios Rueta">A. Palacios Rueta</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Depto. Silvopascicultura. 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Estación Biológica de Doñana (CSIC), Americo Vespucio s/n, ES–41092 Sevilla, Spain</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Depto. Desertificación y Geoecología. Estación Experimental de Zonas Áridas (CSIC), General Segura 1, ES–04001 Almería, Spain</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing. University of California, Davis, CA 95616 USA</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Litago, J" sort="Litago, J" uniqKey="Litago J" first="J." last="Litago">J. Litago</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing. University of California, Davis, CA 95616 USA</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Depto. de Estadística y Metodos de Gestion en Agricultura. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Agrónomos, ES–28040 Madrid, Spain</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E‐mail javier.litago@upm.es</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Palacios Rueta, A" sort="Palacios Rueta, A" uniqKey="Palacios Rueta A" first="A." last="Palacios Rueta">A. Palacios Rueta</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Depto. Silvopascicultura. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de Montes, ES–28040 Madrid, Spain</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E‐mail alicia.palacios@upm.es</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pinz N, J E" sort="Pinz N, J E" uniqKey="Pinz N J" first="J. E." last="Pinz N">J. E. Pinz N</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>NASA‐Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Branch, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E‐mail Jorge_Pinzon@ssaihq.com</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ustin Susan, L" sort="Ustin Susan, L" uniqKey="Ustin Susan L" first="L." last="Ustin Susan">L. Ustin Susan</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing. University of California, Davis, CA 95616 USA</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E‐mail slustin@ucdavis.edu</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j">Applied Vegetation Science</title><idno type="ISSN">1402-2001</idno><idno type="eISSN">1654-109X</idno><imprint><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><pubPlace>Oxford, UK</pubPlace><date type="published" when="2010-04">2010-04</date><biblScope unit="volume">13</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">2</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="146">146</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="162">162</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">1402-2001</idno></series><idno type="istex">B0756C9C197AF962DD35A29BACD256AAD8DBF5CF</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1111/j.1654-109X.2009.01057.x</idno><idno type="ArticleID">AVSC1057</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">1402-2001</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>AVHRR</term><term>Cross‐correlations</term><term>ENSO</term><term>NDVI</term><term>Seasonality</term><term>Time series</term><term>resilience</term></keywords></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Question: Does vegetation buffer or amplify rainfall perturbations, and is it possible to forecast rainfall using mesoscale climatic signals? Location: Central California (USA). Methods: The risk of dry or wet rainfall events was evaluated using conditional probabilities of rainfall depending on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The propagation of rainfall perturbations on vegetation was calculated using cross‐correlations between monthly seasonally adjusted (SA) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and SA antecedent rainfall at different time‐scales. Results: In this region, El Niño events are associated with higher than normal winter precipitation (probability of 73%). Opposite but more predictable effects are found for La Niña events (89% probability of dry events). Chaparral and evergreen forests showed the longest persistence of rainfall effects (0‐8 months). Grasslands and wetlands showed low persistence (0‐2 months), with wetlands dominated by non‐stationary patterns. Within the region, the NDVI spatial patterns associated with higher (lower) rainfall are homogeneous (heterogeneous), with the exception of evergreen forests. Conclusions: Knowledge of the time‐scale of lagged effects of the non‐seasonal component of rainfall on vegetation greenness, and the risk of winter rainfall anomalies lays the foundation for developing a forecasting model for vegetation greenness. Our results also suggest greater competitive advantage for perennial vegetation in response to potential rainfall increases in the region associated with climate change predictions, provided that the soil allows storing extra rainfall.</div></front></TEI><istex><corpusName>wiley</corpusName><author><json:item><name>Mónica García</name><affiliations><json:string>Depto. de Biología de la Conservación. Estación Biológica de Doñana (CSIC), Americo Vespucio s/n, ES–41092 Sevilla, Spain</json:string><json:string>Depto. Desertificación y Geoecología. Estación Experimental de Zonas Áridas (CSIC), General Segura 1, ES–04001 Almería, Spain</json:string><json:string>Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing. University of California, Davis, CA 95616 USA</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>J. Litago</name><affiliations><json:string>Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing. University of California, Davis, CA 95616 USA</json:string><json:string>Depto. de Estadística y Metodos de Gestion en Agricultura. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Agrónomos, ES–28040 Madrid, Spain</json:string><json:string>E‐mail javier.litago@upm.es</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>A. Palacios‐Orueta</name><affiliations><json:string>Depto. Silvopascicultura. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de Montes, ES–28040 Madrid, Spain</json:string><json:string>E‐mail alicia.palacios@upm.es</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>J.E. Pinzón</name><affiliations><json:string>NASA‐Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Branch, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA</json:string><json:string>E‐mail Jorge_Pinzon@ssaihq.com</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>L. Ustin, Susan</name><affiliations><json:string>Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing. University of California, Davis, CA 95616 USA</json:string><json:string>E‐mail slustin@ucdavis.edu</json:string></affiliations></json:item></author><subject><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>AVHRR</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>Cross‐correlations</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>ENSO</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>NDVI</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>resilience</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>Seasonality</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>Time series</value></json:item></subject><language><json:string>eng</json:string></language><abstract>Question: Does vegetation buffer or amplify rainfall perturbations, and is it possible to forecast rainfall using mesoscale climatic signals? Location: Central California (USA). Methods: The risk of dry or wet rainfall events was evaluated using conditional probabilities of rainfall depending on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The propagation of rainfall perturbations on vegetation was calculated using cross‐correlations between monthly seasonally adjusted (SA) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and SA antecedent rainfall at different time‐scales. Results: In this region, El Niño events are associated with higher than normal winter precipitation (probability of 73%). Opposite but more predictable effects are found for La Niña events (89% probability of dry events). Chaparral and evergreen forests showed the longest persistence of rainfall effects (0‐8 months). Grasslands and wetlands showed low persistence (0‐2 months), with wetlands dominated by non‐stationary patterns. Within the region, the NDVI spatial patterns associated with higher (lower) rainfall are homogeneous (heterogeneous), with the exception of evergreen forests. Conclusions: Knowledge of the time‐scale of lagged effects of the non‐seasonal component of rainfall on vegetation greenness, and the risk of winter rainfall anomalies lays the foundation for developing a forecasting model for vegetation greenness. Our results also suggest greater competitive advantage for perennial vegetation in response to potential rainfall increases in the region associated with climate change predictions, provided that the soil allows storing extra rainfall.</abstract><qualityIndicators><score>7.784</score><pdfVersion>1.3</pdfVersion><pdfPageSize>595.276 x 782.362 pts</pdfPageSize><refBibsNative>true</refBibsNative><keywordCount>7</keywordCount><abstractCharCount>1711</abstractCharCount><pdfWordCount>9244</pdfWordCount><pdfCharCount>61395</pdfCharCount><pdfPageCount>17</pdfPageCount><abstractWordCount>232</abstractWordCount></qualityIndicators><title>Short‐term propagation of rainfall perturbations on terrestrial ecosystems in central California</title><genre><json:string>article</json:string></genre><host><volume>13</volume><pages><total>17</total><last>162</last><first>146</first></pages><issn><json:string>1402-2001</json:string></issn><issue>2</issue><genre></genre><language><json:string>unknown</json:string></language><eissn><json:string>1654-109X</json:string></eissn><title>Applied Vegetation Science</title><doi><json:string>10.1111/(ISSN)1654-109X</json:string></doi></host><publicationDate>2010</publicationDate><copyrightDate>2010</copyrightDate><doi><json:string>10.1111/j.1654-109X.2009.01057.x</json:string></doi><id>B0756C9C197AF962DD35A29BACD256AAD8DBF5CF</id><fulltext><json:item><original>true</original><mimetype>application/pdf</mimetype><extension>pdf</extension><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/B0756C9C197AF962DD35A29BACD256AAD8DBF5CF/fulltext/pdf</uri></json:item><json:item><original>false</original><mimetype>application/zip</mimetype><extension>zip</extension><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/B0756C9C197AF962DD35A29BACD256AAD8DBF5CF/fulltext/zip</uri></json:item><istex:fulltextTEI uri="https://api.istex.fr/document/B0756C9C197AF962DD35A29BACD256AAD8DBF5CF/fulltext/tei"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title level="a" type="main" xml:lang="en">Short‐term propagation of rainfall perturbations on terrestrial ecosystems in central California</title></titleStmt><publicationStmt><authority>ISTEX</authority><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><pubPlace>Oxford, UK</pubPlace><availability><p>WILEY</p></availability><date>2010</date></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct type="inbook"><analytic><title level="a" type="main" xml:lang="en">Short‐term propagation of rainfall perturbations on terrestrial ecosystems in central California</title><author><persName><forename type="first">Mónica</forename><surname>García</surname></persName><note type="correspondence"><p>Correspondence: Corresponding author; E‐mail:</p></note><affiliation>Depto. de Biología de la Conservación. Estación Biológica de Doñana (CSIC), Americo Vespucio s/n, ES–41092 Sevilla, Spain</affiliation><affiliation>Depto. Desertificación y Geoecología. Estación Experimental de Zonas Áridas (CSIC), General Segura 1, ES–04001 Almería, Spain</affiliation><affiliation>Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing. University of California, Davis, CA 95616 USA</affiliation></author><author><persName><forename type="first">J.</forename><surname>Litago</surname></persName><affiliation>Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing. University of California, Davis, CA 95616 USA</affiliation><affiliation>Depto. de Estadística y Metodos de Gestion en Agricultura. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Agrónomos, ES–28040 Madrid, Spain</affiliation><affiliation>E‐mail javier.litago@upm.es</affiliation></author><author><persName><forename type="first">A.</forename><surname>Palacios‐Orueta</surname></persName><affiliation>Depto. Silvopascicultura. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de Montes, ES–28040 Madrid, Spain</affiliation><affiliation>E‐mail alicia.palacios@upm.es</affiliation></author><author><persName><forename type="first">J.E.</forename><surname>Pinzón</surname></persName><affiliation>NASA‐Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Branch, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA</affiliation><affiliation>E‐mail Jorge_Pinzon@ssaihq.com</affiliation></author><author><persName><forename type="first">L.</forename><surname>Ustin, Susan</surname></persName><affiliation>Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing. University of California, Davis, CA 95616 USA</affiliation><affiliation>E‐mail slustin@ucdavis.edu</affiliation></author></analytic><monogr><title level="j">Applied Vegetation Science</title><idno type="pISSN">1402-2001</idno><idno type="eISSN">1654-109X</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1111/(ISSN)1654-109X</idno><imprint><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><pubPlace>Oxford, UK</pubPlace><date type="published" when="2010-04"></date><biblScope unit="volume">13</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">2</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="146">146</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="162">162</biblScope></imprint></monogr><idno type="istex">B0756C9C197AF962DD35A29BACD256AAD8DBF5CF</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1111/j.1654-109X.2009.01057.x</idno><idno type="ArticleID">AVSC1057</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><creation><date>2010</date></creation><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage><abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Question: Does vegetation buffer or amplify rainfall perturbations, and is it possible to forecast rainfall using mesoscale climatic signals? Location: Central California (USA). Methods: The risk of dry or wet rainfall events was evaluated using conditional probabilities of rainfall depending on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The propagation of rainfall perturbations on vegetation was calculated using cross‐correlations between monthly seasonally adjusted (SA) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and SA antecedent rainfall at different time‐scales. Results: In this region, El Niño events are associated with higher than normal winter precipitation (probability of 73%). Opposite but more predictable effects are found for La Niña events (89% probability of dry events). Chaparral and evergreen forests showed the longest persistence of rainfall effects (0‐8 months). Grasslands and wetlands showed low persistence (0‐2 months), with wetlands dominated by non‐stationary patterns. Within the region, the NDVI spatial patterns associated with higher (lower) rainfall are homogeneous (heterogeneous), with the exception of evergreen forests. Conclusions: Knowledge of the time‐scale of lagged effects of the non‐seasonal component of rainfall on vegetation greenness, and the risk of winter rainfall anomalies lays the foundation for developing a forecasting model for vegetation greenness. Our results also suggest greater competitive advantage for perennial vegetation in response to potential rainfall increases in the region associated with climate change predictions, provided that the soil allows storing extra rainfall.</p></abstract><textClass xml:lang="en"><keywords scheme="keyword"><list><head>Keywords</head><item><term>AVHRR</term></item><item><term>Cross‐correlations</term></item><item><term>ENSO</term></item><item><term>NDVI</term></item><item><term>resilience</term></item><item><term>Seasonality</term></item><item><term>Time series</term></item></list></keywords></textClass></profileDesc><revisionDesc><change when="2010-04">Published</change></revisionDesc></teiHeader></istex:fulltextTEI><json:item><original>false</original><mimetype>text/plain</mimetype><extension>txt</extension><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/B0756C9C197AF962DD35A29BACD256AAD8DBF5CF/fulltext/txt</uri></json:item></fulltext><metadata><istex:metadataXml wicri:clean="Wiley, elements deleted: body"><istex:xmlDeclaration>version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"</istex:xmlDeclaration><istex:document><component version="2.0" type="serialArticle" xml:lang="en"><header><publicationMeta level="product"><publisherInfo><publisherName>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisherName><publisherLoc>Oxford, UK</publisherLoc></publisherInfo><doi origin="wiley" registered="yes">10.1111/(ISSN)1654-109X</doi><issn type="print">1402-2001</issn><issn type="electronic">1654-109X</issn><idGroup><id type="product" value="AVSC"></id><id type="publisherDivision" value="ST"></id></idGroup><titleGroup><title type="main" sort="APPLIED VEGETATION SCIENCE">Applied Vegetation Science</title></titleGroup></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="part" position="04002"><doi origin="wiley">10.1111/avsc.2010.13.issue-2</doi><numberingGroup><numbering type="journalVolume" number="13">13</numbering><numbering type="journalIssue" number="2">2</numbering></numberingGroup><coverDate startDate="2010-04">April 2010</coverDate></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="unit" type="article" position="2" status="forIssue"><doi origin="wiley">10.1111/j.1654-109X.2009.01057.x</doi><idGroup><id type="unit" value="AVSC1057"></id><id type="supplier" value="1057"></id></idGroup><countGroup><count type="pageTotal" number="17"></count></countGroup><titleGroup><title type="tocHeading1">Original Articles</title></titleGroup><copyright>© 2009 International Association for Vegetation Science</copyright><eventGroup><event type="firstOnline" date="2009-11-12"></event><event type="publishedOnlineFinalForm" date="2010-02-22"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:BPG_TO_WML3G version:2.3.6 mode:FullText source:FullText result:FullText" date="2010-04-21"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WILEY_ML3G_TO_WILEY_ML3GV2 version:4.0.1" date="2014-03-15"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WML3G_To_WML3G version:4.1.7 mode:FullText,remove_FC" date="2014-10-15"></event></eventGroup><numberingGroup><numbering type="pageFirst" number="146">146</numbering><numbering type="pageLast" number="162">162</numbering></numberingGroup><correspondenceTo><sup>*</sup>Corresponding author; E‐mail: <email normalForm="monicagarcia@ebd.csic.es">monicagarcia@ebd.csic.es</email></correspondenceTo><linkGroup><link type="toTypesetVersion" href="file:AVSC.AVSC1057.pdf"></link></linkGroup></publicationMeta><contentMeta><unparsedEditorialHistory>Received 19 February 2009; Accepted 10 August 2009.</unparsedEditorialHistory><countGroup><count type="figureTotal" number="7"></count><count type="tableTotal" number="3"></count><count type="formulaTotal" number="3"></count><count type="referenceTotal" number="78"></count><count type="wordTotal" number="12013"></count><count type="linksCrossRef" number="114"></count></countGroup><titleGroup><title type="main">Short‐term propagation of rainfall perturbations on terrestrial ecosystems in central California</title><title type="shortAuthors">G<sc>arcía</sc>, M. <sc>et al</sc>.</title><title type="short">S<sc>hort</sc>‐<sc>term propagation of rainfall perturbations</sc></title></titleGroup><creators><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr1" affiliationRef="#a1 #a2 #a3" corresponding="yes"><personName><givenNames>Mónica</givenNames><familyName>García</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr2" affiliationRef="#a3 #a4 #a5"><personName><givenNames>J.</givenNames><familyName>Litago</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr3" affiliationRef="#a6 #a7"><personName><givenNames>A.</givenNames><familyName>Palacios‐Orueta</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr4" affiliationRef="#a8 #a9"><personName><givenNames>J.E.</givenNames><familyName>Pinzón</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr5" affiliationRef="#a3 #a10"><personName><givenNames>L.</givenNames><familyName>Ustin, Susan</familyName></personName></creator></creators><affiliationGroup><affiliation xml:id="a1" countryCode="ES"><unparsedAffiliation>Depto. de Biología de la Conservación. Estación Biológica de Doñana (CSIC), Americo Vespucio s/n, ES–41092 Sevilla, Spain</unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="a2" countryCode="ES"><unparsedAffiliation>Depto. Desertificación y Geoecología. Estación Experimental de Zonas Áridas (CSIC), General Segura 1, ES–04001 Almería, Spain</unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="a3" countryCode="US"><unparsedAffiliation>Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing. University of California, Davis, CA 95616 USA</unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="a4" countryCode="ES"><unparsedAffiliation>Depto. de Estadística y Metodos de Gestion en Agricultura. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Agrónomos, ES–28040 Madrid, Spain</unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="a5"><unparsedAffiliation> E‐mail <email normalForm="javier.litago@upm.es">javier.litago@upm.es</email></unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="a6" countryCode="ES"><unparsedAffiliation>Depto. Silvopascicultura. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de Montes, ES–28040 Madrid, Spain</unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="a7"><unparsedAffiliation> E‐mail <email normalForm="alicia.palacios@upm.es">alicia.palacios@upm.es</email></unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="a8" countryCode="US"><unparsedAffiliation>NASA‐Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Branch, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA</unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="a9"><unparsedAffiliation> E‐mail <email normalForm="Jorge_Pinzon@ssaihq.com">Jorge_Pinzon@ssaihq.com</email></unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="a10"><unparsedAffiliation> E‐mail <email normalForm="slustin@ucdavis.edu">slustin@ucdavis.edu</email></unparsedAffiliation></affiliation></affiliationGroup><keywordGroup xml:lang="en"><keyword xml:id="k1">AVHRR</keyword><keyword xml:id="k2">Cross‐correlations</keyword><keyword xml:id="k3">ENSO</keyword><keyword xml:id="k4">NDVI</keyword><keyword xml:id="k5">resilience</keyword><keyword xml:id="k6">Seasonality</keyword><keyword xml:id="k7">Time series</keyword></keywordGroup><abstractGroup><abstract type="main" xml:lang="en"><title type="main">Abstract</title><p><b>Question: </b> Does vegetation buffer or amplify rainfall perturbations, and is it possible to forecast rainfall using mesoscale climatic signals?</p><p><b>Location: </b> Central California (USA).</p><p><b>Methods: </b> The risk of dry or wet rainfall events was evaluated using conditional probabilities of rainfall depending on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The propagation of rainfall perturbations on vegetation was calculated using cross‐correlations between monthly seasonally adjusted (SA) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and SA antecedent rainfall at different time‐scales.</p><p><b>Results: </b> In this region, El Niño events are associated with higher than normal winter precipitation (probability of 73%). Opposite but more predictable effects are found for La Niña events (89% probability of dry events). Chaparral and evergreen forests showed the longest persistence of rainfall effects (0‐8 months). Grasslands and wetlands showed low persistence (0‐2 months), with wetlands dominated by non‐stationary patterns. Within the region, the NDVI spatial patterns associated with higher (lower) rainfall are homogeneous (heterogeneous), with the exception of evergreen forests.</p><p><b>Conclusions: </b> Knowledge of the time‐scale of lagged effects of the non‐seasonal component of rainfall on vegetation greenness, and the risk of winter rainfall anomalies lays the foundation for developing a forecasting model for vegetation greenness. Our results also suggest greater competitive advantage for perennial vegetation in response to potential rainfall increases in the region associated with climate change predictions, provided that the soil allows storing extra rainfall.</p></abstract></abstractGroup></contentMeta><noteGroup><note xml:id="fn1" numbered="no"><p>Co‐ordinating Editor: R. Ohlemuller</p></note></noteGroup></header></component></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo lang="en"><title>Short‐term propagation of rainfall perturbations on terrestrial ecosystems in central California</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated"><title>Short‐term propagation of rainfall perturbations</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" contentType="CDATA" lang="en"><title>Short‐term propagation of rainfall perturbations on terrestrial ecosystems in central California</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Mónica</namePart><namePart type="family">García</namePart><affiliation>Depto. de Biología de la Conservación. Estación Biológica de Doñana (CSIC), Americo Vespucio s/n, ES–41092 Sevilla, Spain</affiliation><affiliation>Depto. Desertificación y Geoecología. Estación Experimental de Zonas Áridas (CSIC), General Segura 1, ES–04001 Almería, Spain</affiliation><affiliation>Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing. University of California, Davis, CA 95616 USA</affiliation><description>Correspondence: Corresponding author; E‐mail: </description><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">J.</namePart><namePart type="family">Litago</namePart><affiliation>Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing. University of California, Davis, CA 95616 USA</affiliation><affiliation>Depto. de Estadística y Metodos de Gestion en Agricultura. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Agrónomos, ES–28040 Madrid, Spain</affiliation><affiliation>E‐mail javier.litago@upm.es</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">A.</namePart><namePart type="family">Palacios‐Orueta</namePart><affiliation>Depto. Silvopascicultura. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de Montes, ES–28040 Madrid, Spain</affiliation><affiliation>E‐mail alicia.palacios@upm.es</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">J.E.</namePart><namePart type="family">Pinzón</namePart><affiliation>NASA‐Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Branch, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA</affiliation><affiliation>E‐mail Jorge_Pinzon@ssaihq.com</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">L.</namePart><namePart type="family">Ustin, Susan</namePart><affiliation>Center for Spatial Technologies and Remote Sensing. University of California, Davis, CA 95616 USA</affiliation><affiliation>E‐mail slustin@ucdavis.edu</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource><genre type="article" displayLabel="article"></genre><originInfo><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><place><placeTerm type="text">Oxford, UK</placeTerm></place><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">2010-04</dateIssued><edition>Received 19 February 2009; Accepted 10 August 2009.</edition><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2010</copyrightDate></originInfo><language><languageTerm type="code" authority="rfc3066">en</languageTerm><languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm></language><physicalDescription><internetMediaType>text/html</internetMediaType><extent unit="figures">7</extent><extent unit="tables">3</extent><extent unit="formulas">3</extent><extent unit="references">78</extent><extent unit="words">12013</extent></physicalDescription><abstract lang="en">Question: Does vegetation buffer or amplify rainfall perturbations, and is it possible to forecast rainfall using mesoscale climatic signals? Location: Central California (USA). Methods: The risk of dry or wet rainfall events was evaluated using conditional probabilities of rainfall depending on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The propagation of rainfall perturbations on vegetation was calculated using cross‐correlations between monthly seasonally adjusted (SA) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and SA antecedent rainfall at different time‐scales. Results: In this region, El Niño events are associated with higher than normal winter precipitation (probability of 73%). Opposite but more predictable effects are found for La Niña events (89% probability of dry events). Chaparral and evergreen forests showed the longest persistence of rainfall effects (0‐8 months). Grasslands and wetlands showed low persistence (0‐2 months), with wetlands dominated by non‐stationary patterns. Within the region, the NDVI spatial patterns associated with higher (lower) rainfall are homogeneous (heterogeneous), with the exception of evergreen forests. Conclusions: Knowledge of the time‐scale of lagged effects of the non‐seasonal component of rainfall on vegetation greenness, and the risk of winter rainfall anomalies lays the foundation for developing a forecasting model for vegetation greenness. Our results also suggest greater competitive advantage for perennial vegetation in response to potential rainfall increases in the region associated with climate change predictions, provided that the soil allows storing extra rainfall.</abstract><subject lang="en"><genre>Keywords</genre><topic>AVHRR</topic><topic>Cross‐correlations</topic><topic>ENSO</topic><topic>NDVI</topic><topic>resilience</topic><topic>Seasonality</topic><topic>Time series</topic></subject><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Applied Vegetation Science</title></titleInfo><genre type="Journal">journal</genre><identifier type="ISSN">1402-2001</identifier><identifier type="eISSN">1654-109X</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/(ISSN)1654-109X</identifier><identifier type="PublisherID">AVSC</identifier><part><date>2010</date><detail type="volume"><caption>vol.</caption><number>13</number></detail><detail type="issue"><caption>no.</caption><number>2</number></detail><extent unit="pages"><start>146</start><end>162</end><total>17</total></extent></part></relatedItem><identifier type="istex">B0756C9C197AF962DD35A29BACD256AAD8DBF5CF</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/j.1654-109X.2009.01057.x</identifier><identifier type="ArticleID">AVSC1057</identifier><accessCondition type="use and reproduction" contentType="copyright">© 2009 International Association for Vegetation Science</accessCondition><recordInfo><recordContentSource>WILEY</recordContentSource><recordOrigin>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</recordOrigin></recordInfo></mods></metadata><serie></serie></istex></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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