0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1398Shared Roadway Implementation GuidanceROBERTSON (James)GENE HAWKINS (H.)Texas A&M Transportation Institute, Texas A&M Univ. System, 3135 TAMUCollege Station, TX 77843-3135USA1 aut.Zachry Dept. of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M Univ., 3136 TAMUCollege Station, TX 77843-3136USA2 aut.833-8392013ENGINIST572E3540005036561900700000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.13-0370041PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAShared roadways have automobiles and bicycles operating in the same traveled way, which may negatively affect traffic operations; there is limited guidance on appropriate shared roadway implementation. To provide guidance on shared roadway implementation, this paper uses microsimulation models and a sensitivity analysis to evaluate automobile quality of service on shared roadways. After the sensitivity analysis, automobile quality of service is compared to bicycle quality of service on shared roadways. Using the results of the sensitivity analysis and comparison, guidance is provided on the implementation of shared roadways. This study finds that outside lane width and bicycle volume affect automobile quality of service on shared roadways. Additionally, higher values for unsignalized access points per kilometer (per mile), heavy vehicle percent, and signalized intersection crossing distance result in bicycle quality of service being less than automobile quality of service. Using this study's findings, shared roadway implementation guidance is provided for four-lane divided urban street segments. Future research should develop shared roadway implementation guidance using microsimulation models calibrated to observed data.001D15C001D15B001D14O02295Trafic routier urbain02Urban road traffic02Tráfico vial urbano02Automobile03Motor car03Automóvil03Bicyclette04Bicycle04Bicicleta04Gestion trafic05Traffic management05Gestión tráfico05Partage06Sharing06Partición06Rue07Street07Calle07Analyse donnée08Data analysis08Análisis datos08Qualité service09Service quality09Calidad servicio09Méthodologie10Methodology10Metodología10Modèle simulation11Simulation model11Modelo simulación11Etude comparative12Comparative study12Estudio comparativo12Recommandation13Recommendation13Recomendación13350PSIPSI 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1396Effect of Road Narrowing on Junction Capacity Using MicrosimulationYOUSIF (Saad)ALTERAWI (Mohammed)HENSON (Ralph R.)Univ. of SalfordManchester M5 4WTGBR1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.574-5842013ENGINIST572E3540005065016800400000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.13-0362116PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSATraffic-calming measures have been widely used in urban areas, aiming sometimes to reduce vehicle flow rates but primarily to reduce speed and, hence, the number and severity of traffic accidents. The one-way priority working road narrowing (throttle) is a widely used traffic-calming technique. However, installation of such a measure close to a junction can severely affect the operation and level of service, especially for the major road movements. There is a lack of research, guidance, and design standards to inform the effective deployment of such a measure. This paper starts by providing a summary of the terms and standards used in practice for traffic-calming measures, primarily focusing on the use of throttles. The paper aims to investigate the relationship between throttle spacing (X) from a priority junction and the &dquot;major-to-major movement&dquot; driver's delay for different flow levels using the S-Paramics microsimulation model. The model was calibrated and validated with field data collected from a selected site within Greater Manchester for two separate days by using camcorders. Cooperative behavior between drivers (i.e., those with priority who gave way to others) was noticed and analyzed accordingly. Different scenarios were used to test the effects on delays and queues for various parameters including throttle spacing (X), major-arms flow level, and reversing the direction of priority. The findings show that there is a direct relationship between throttle spacing (X) and the level of delay for traffic on the major arms of the junction. It is also shown that for a minor arm with two-way flow level of up to 500 vehicles per hour (veh/h), the throttle spacing should be at least 30 m. Once the flow level reaches 700 veh/h, the spacing should be at least 50 m, whereas for flow levels of 800 veh/h, the spacing should be at least 100 meters. Alternatively, consideration should be given to reversing the priority given to traffic by using MJTP (major-arm traffic has priority) operation rather than MNTP (minor-arm traffic has priority) when less throttle spacing (X) is required, to minimize delays to traffic on the major arms.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Gestion trafic03Traffic management03Gestión tráfico03Priorité04Priority04Prioridad04Carrefour routier05Road junction05Cruce carretera05Rétrécissement06Narrowing06Estrechamiento06Collecte donnée07Data gathering07Recolección dato07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Capacité09Capacity09Capacidad09Véhicule routier10Road vehicle10Vehículo caminero10Mesure sécurité11Safety measure11Medida seguridad11Limitation vitesse12Speed limit12Limitación velocidad12Modélisation13Modeling13Modelización13Comportement14Behavior14Conducta14Application15Application15Aplicación15Recommandation16Recommendation16Recomendación16343PSIPSI 0039-2499SJCCA7Stroke : (1970)4411Modelling the Efficiency of Local Versus Central Provision of Intravenous Thrombolysis After Acute Ischemic StrokeMCMEEKIN (Peter)GRAY (Jo)FORD (Gary A.)RODGERS (Helen)PRICE (Christopher I.)Institute of Health and Society, Newcastle UniversityNewcastle Upon TyneGBR1 aut.2 aut.Institute for Ageing and Health (Stroke Research Group), Newcastle UniversityNewcastle Upon TyneGBR3 aut.4 aut.5 aut.3114-31192013ENGINIST40043540005015975602100000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.21 ref.13-0347012PAStroke : (1970)USABackground and Purpose-Prehospital redirection of stroke patients to a regional center is used as a strategy to maximize the provision of intravenous thrombolysis. We developed a model to quantify the benefit of redirection away from local services that were already providing thrombolysis. Methods-A microsimulation using hospital and ambulance data from consecutive emergency admissions to 10 local acute stroke units estimated the effect of redirection to 2 regional neuroscience centers. Modeled outcomes reflected additional journey time and accuracy of stroke identification in the prehospital phase, and the relative efficiency of patient selection and door-needle time for each local site compared with the nearest regional neuroscience center. Results-Thrombolysis was received by 223/1884 emergency admissions. Based on observed site performance, 68 additional patients would have been treated after theoretical redirection of 1269 true positive cases and 363 stroke mimics to the neuroscience center. Over 5 years redirection of this cohort generated 12.6 quality-adjusted life years at a marginal cost of £6730 ($10320, <euro sign>8347). The average additional cost of a quality-adjusted life year gain was £534 ($819, <euro sign>673). Conclusions-Under these specific circumstances, redirection would have improved outcomes from thrombolysis at little additional cost.002B17C002B02GRamollissement cérébral01Cerebral infarction01Infarto cerebral01Accident cérébrovasculaire02Stroke02Accidente cerebrovascular02Ischémie de l'encéphaleNM03Brain ischemiaNM03Isquemia encéfaloNM03Pathologie du système nerveux04Nervous system diseases04Sistema nervioso patología04Pathologie cérébrovasculaire05Cerebrovascular disease05Vaso sanguíneo encéfalo patología05Etude comparative09Comparative study09Estudio comparativo09Voie intraveineuse10Intravenous administration10Vía intravenosa10Traitement11Treatment11Tratamiento11Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire37Cardiovascular disease37Aparato circulatorio patología37Pathologie de l'encéphale38Cerebral disorder38Encéfalo patología38Pathologie du système nerveux central39Central nervous system disease39Sistema nervosio central patología39Pathologie des vaisseaux sanguins41Vascular disease41Vaso sanguíneo patología41329OTOOTO 0968-090XTransp. res., Part C Emerg. technol.32Optimization of traffic signal timings based on surrogate measures of safetySELECTED PAPERS FROM THE 2011 ROAD SAFETY SIMULATION CONFERENCESTEVANOVIC (Aleksandar)STEVANOVIC (Jelka)KERGAYE (Cameron)KARLAFTIS (Matthew G.)ed.Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatics Engineering, Florida Atlantic University, 777 Glades Rd., Bldg. 36, Rm. 225Boca Raton, FL 33431USA1 aut.Utah Department of Transportation, P.O. Box 148410Salt Lake City, UT 84114USA3 aut.159-1782013ENGINIST12377C3540005090668501200000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.13-0315981PCATransportation research. Part C, Emerging technologiesGBROne way to improve safety of signalized arterials is to optimize signal timings. Historically, signal retiming tools were used to reduce traffic delay and stops and other measures of traffic efficiency. The concept of optimizing signal timings specifically to improve safety metrics, or their surrogate measures, is not common in current signal timing optimization practice. This study advocates a fresh approach to integrating VISSIM microsimulation software, Surrogate Safety Assessment Model, and VISSIM-based Genetic Algorithm for Optimization of Signal Timings to reduce surrogate measures of safety and thereby reduce risks of potential real-world crashes. In addition, a multiple-objective genetic algorithm is implemented to identify the optimal compromise between two competing objectives: surrogate safety and traffic efficiency. A 12-intersection corridor on Glades Road in Boca Raton and two smaller synthetic network served as case studies. Optimized signal timings delivered a solution that balanced both safety and efficiency. When compared to initial signal timings the estimated number of conflicts was reduced by 7%. In addition, when compared to signal timings optimized for efficiency the estimated number of conflicts was reduced by 9% without a significant loss of efficiency (∼1%). The study also approximated a Pareto Front of conflicts and throughput which may be instrumental when trading off (surrogate) safety for efficiency in the development of signal timing plans. Most of the improvements came at the expense of worsening efficiency of traffic streams which shows an inevitable necessity for trade-off between efficiency and safety. A strong relationship between increase in cycle length and reduction of vehicular conflicts has been observed. Further investigation is needed to validate the approach and perform detailed analysis of impacts of signal timings on vehicular conflicts.001D15C001D14O05295Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Sécurité trafic03Traffic safety03Seguridad tráfico03Timing04Timing04Timing04Feu signalisation05Traffic lights05Semáforo05Mesure sécurité06Safety measure06Medida seguridad06Optimisation07Optimization07Optimización07Programmation multiobjectif08Multiobjective programming08Programación multiobjetivo08Algorithme évolutionniste09Evolutionary algorithm09Algoritmo evoluciónista09Simulation10Simulation10Simulación10Expérimentation11Experimentation11Experimentación11Evaluation performance12Performance evaluation12Evaluación prestación12301PSIPSI2011 Road Safety Simulation ConferenceIndianapolis, Indiana USA2011-09-14 0027-8874J. Natl. Cancer Inst.10517Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Women With Familial Risk for Breast Cancer With Magnetic Resonance ImagingSAADATMAND (Sepideh)TILANUS-LINTHORST (Madeleine M. A.)RUTGERS (Emiel J. T.)HOOGERBRUGGE (Nicoline)OOSTERWIJK (Jan C.)TOLLENAAR (Rob A. E. M.)HOONING (Maartje)LOO (Claudette E.)OBDEIJN (Inge-Marie)HEIJNSDIJK (Eveline A. M.)DE KONING (Harry J.)Department of Surgery, Erasmus Medical CenterRotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.Department of Radiology, Erasmus Medical CenterRotterdamNLD9 aut.Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical CenterRotterdamNLD10 aut.11 aut.Department of Surgery, the Netherlands Cancer Institute, Antoni van Leeuwenhoek HospitalAmsterdamNLD3 aut.Department of Human Genetics, Radboud University Medical CenterNijmegenNLD4 aut.Department of Genetics, University Medical Center, Groningen UniversityGroningenNLD5 aut.Department of Surgery, Leiden University Medical CenterLeidenNLD6 aut.Department of Medical Oncology, Erasmus Medical Center-Daniel den Hoed Cancer CenterRotterdamNLD7 aut.Department of Radiology, the Netherlands Cancer Institute, Antoni van Leeuwenhoek HospitalAmsterdamNLD8 aut.1314-13212013ENGINIST33643540005015448401000000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.44 ref.13-0305148PAJournal of the National Cancer InstituteUSABackground To reduce mortality, women with a family history of breast cancer are often screened with mammography before age 50 years. Additional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) improves sensitivity and is cost-effective for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. However, for women with a family history without a proven mutation, cost-effectiveness is unclear. Methods We evaluated data of the largest prospective MRI screening study (MRISC). Between 1999 and 2007, 1597 women (8370 woman-years at risk) aged 25 to 70 years with an estimated cumulative lifetime risk of 15% to 50% for breast cancer were screened with clinical breast examination every 6 months and with annual mammography and MRI. We calculated the cost per detected and treated breast cancer. After incorporating MRISC data into a microsimulation screening analysis model (MISCAN), different schemes were evaluated, and cost per life-year gained (LYG) was estimated in comparison with the Dutch nationwide breast cancer screening program (biennial mammography from age 50 to 75 years). All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Forty-seven breast cancers (9 ductal carcinoma in situ) were detected. Screening with additional MRI costs $123 672 (<euro sign>93 639) per detected breast cancer. In increasing age-cohorts, costs per detected and treated breast cancer decreased, but, unexpectedly, the percentage of MRI-only detected cancers increased. Screening under the MRISC-scheme from age 35 to 50 years was estimated to reduce breast cancer mortality by 25% at $134 932 (<euro sign>102 164) per LYG (3.5% discounting) compared with 17% mortality reduction at $54 665 (<euro sign>41 390) per LYG with mammography only. Conclusions Screening with MRI may improve survival for women with familial risk for breast cancer but is expensive, especially in the youngest age categories.002B04C002B20E02Cancer du seinNM01Breast cancerNM01Cáncer del pechoNM01Analyse coût efficacité02Cost efficiency analysis02Análisis costo eficacia02Economie santé03Health economy03Economía salud03Imagerie RMN04Nuclear magnetic resonance imaging04Imaginería RMN04Dépistage05Medical screening05Descubrimiento05Antécédent06Antecedent06Antecedente06Femelle08Female08Hembra08Adulte09Adult09Adulto09Histoire familiale11Family story11Historia familiar11Etats-UnisNG12United StatesNG12Estados UnidosNG12Facteur risque17Risk factor17Factor riesgo17Epidémiologie18Epidemiology18Epidemiología18Cancérologie19Cancerology19Cancerología19HommeHumanHombreAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNGTumeur maligneNM37Malignant tumorNM37Tumor malignoNM37CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie de la glande mammaireNM38Mammary gland diseasesNM38Glándula mamaria patologíaNM38Pathologie du seinNM39Breast diseaseNM39Seno patologíaNM39Imagerie médicale40Medical imagery40Imaginería médica40Santé publique41Public health41Salud pública41287 0398-7620Rev. épidémiol. santé publique61AOUTSUP3Redistribution des revenus opérée par l'assurance maladie entre groupes d'âge et groupes sociauxDéterminants sociaux de la santé : les apports de la recherche en santé publiqueFOURCADE (N.)DUVAL (J.)LARDELLIER (R.)Direction de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiques (Drees), ministère des Affaires Sociales et de la Santé, 14, avenue Duquesne75350 Paris 07 SPFRA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.Alliance nationale pour les sciences de la vie (AVIESAN). ITMO santé publiqueFRAorg-cong.S170-S1752013FREengINIST73413540005036764900800000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.8 ref.13-0292357PCARevue d'épidémiologie et de santé publiqueFRAHealth Care Insurance in France: Its impact on income distribution between age and social groupsSocial Determinants of Health: Research contributions to public healthCes travaux, reposant sur des modèles de microsimulation, visent à mesurer les impacts redistributifs des financements et prestations des assurances maladie obligatoire et complémentaire (AMO/C). Ils contribuent à éclairer les débats sur les rôles respectifs des organismes complémentaires et de l'AMO dans la prise en charge des dépenses de santé, rappelant les effets différenciés de leurs interventions. L'analyse montre que les logiques de l'AMO permettent notamment aux plus modestes et aux retraités un meilleur accès aux soins que celui qu'ils auraient dans un système d'assurances privées fonctionnant selon une logique de tarification au risque. Les ménages modestes ont des contributions financières à l'AMO plus faibles (progressivité des prélèvements) et une prise en charge de leurs dépenses de santé légèrement plus élevée du fait d'un état de santé moyen plus dégradé et d'une structure de consommation tournée vers les soins mieux remboursés. Les retraités, à faibles contributions, ont aussi en moyenne les dépenses de soins les plus élevées.002B30A11Sociologie02Sociology02Sociología02Santé publique03Public health03Salud pública03Déterminant05Determinant05Determinante05Assurance maladie06Health insurance06Seguro enfermedad06Protection sociale08Welfare aids08Protección social08Groupe social09Social group09Grupo social09Age11Age11Edad11Soin12Care12Cuidado12FranceNG17FranceNG17FranciaNG17Revenu économique18Income18Renta18Distribution19Distribution19Distribución19EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG273OTOOTOColloque de l'ITMO Santé Publique (Aviesan)1Paris FRA2012-10-26Symposium of the ITMO Public Health (Aviesan)1Paris FRA2012-10-26 0968-090XTransp. res., Part C Emerg. technol.31A combined method to forecast and estimate traffic demand in urban networksSPECIAL ISSUE ON ITS FOR LARGER CITIESPOHLMANN (Tobias)FRIEDRICH (Bernhard)BUSCH (Fritz)ed.Institute of Transportation and Urban Planning, Technische Universität Carolo-Wilhelmina zu Braunschweig, Rebenring 3138106 BraunschweigDEU1 aut.2 aut.131-1442013ENGINIST12377C3540005037947901000000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.13-0287383PATransportation research. Part C, Emerging technologiesGBRThis paper presents a combined method for short-term forecasting of detector counts in urban networks and subsequent traffic demand estimation using the forecasted counts as constraints to estimate origin-destination (OD) flows, route and link volumes. The method is intended to be used in the framework of an adaptive traffic control strategy with consecutive optimization intervals of 15 min. The method continuously estimates the forthcoming traffic demand that can be used as input data for the optimization. The forecasting uses current and reference space-time-patterns of detector counts. The reference patterns are derived from data collected in the past. The current pattern comprises all detector counts of the last four time intervals. A simple but effective pattern matching is used for forecasting. The subsequent demand estimation is based on the information minimization model that has been integrated into an iterative procedure with repeated traffic assignment and matrix estimation until a stable solution is found. Some enhancements including the improvement of constraints, redundancy elimination of these constraints and a travel time estimation based on a macroscopic simulation using the Cell Transmission Model have been implemented. The overall method, its modules and its performance, which has been assessed using artificially created data for a real sub-network in Hannover, Germany, by means of a microsimulation with Aimsun NG, are presented in this paper.001D15C001D14O02295Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Réseau routier03Road network03Red carretera03Zone urbaine04Urban area04Zona urbana04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Modèle prévision06Forecast model06Modelo previsión06Demande transport07Transport demand07Demanda transporte07Minimisation08Minimization08Minimización08Information09Information09Información09Système combiné10Combined system10Sistema combinado10Détecteur11Detector11Detector11Comptage12Counting12Contaje12Modèle simulation13Simulation model13Modelo simulación13Durée trajet14Travel time14Duración trayecto14Evaluation performance15Performance evaluation15Evaluación prestación15273PSIPSI 0957-4174Expert syst. appl.4015Calibration of microsimulation traffic model using neural network approachISTOKA OTKOVIC (Irena)TOLLAZZI (Tomaž)SRAML (Matjaž)J.J. Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Drinska 16a31000 OsijekHRV1 aut.University of Maribor, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Smetanova 172000 MariborSVN2 aut.3 aut.5965-59742013ENGINIST281193540005065069702000000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.13-0283549PAExpert systems with applicationsNLDThis paper presents the results of research on the applicability of neural networks in the process of computer calibration of a microsimulation traffic model. VISSIM microsimulation model is used for calibration done at the example of roundabouts in an urban area. The calibration method is based on the prediction of a neural network for one traffic indicator, i.e. for the traveling time between measuring points. Besides the traveling time, the calibration process further/also involves a comparison between the modeled and measured queue parameters at the entrance to the intersection. The process of validation includes an analysis of traveling time and queue parameters on new sets of data gathered both at the modeled and at a new roundabout. A comparison of the traffic indicators measured in the field and those simulated with the calibrated and uncalibrated microsimulation traffic model provides an insight into the performance of the calibration procedure.001D01A04001D02C06001D02B08001D15CEcoulement trafic06Traffic flow06Flujo tráfico06Temps exécution07Execution time07Tiempo ejecución07File attente08Queue08Fila espera08Intersection09Intersection09Intersección09Gestion trafic18Traffic management18Gestión tráfico18Calculateur processus19Process computer19Calculador proceso19Langage visuel programmation20Visual programming language20Lenguaje visual20Carrefour routier21Road junction21Cruce carretera21Zone urbaine22Urban area22Zona urbana22Etalonnage23Calibration23Contraste23Réseau neuronal24Neural network24Red neuronal24Simulation ordinateur25Computer simulation25Simulación computadora25Modélisation26Modeling26Modelización26Validation27Validation27Validación27Analyse temporelle28Time analysis28Análisis temporal28Modèle donnéeCD96Data modelsCD96Modelo de datosCD96266OTOOTO 0028-3878NEURAINeurology815Supply and demand analysis of the current and future US neurology workforceDALL (Timothy M.)STORM (Michael V.)CHAKRABARTI (Ritashree)DROGAN (Oksana)KERAN (Christopher M.)DONOFRIO (Peter D.)HENDERSON (Victor W.)KAMINSKI (Henry J.)STEVENS (James C.)VIDIC (Thomas R.)IHS Healthcare & PharmaWashington, DCUSA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.American Academy of NeurologyMinneapolis, MNUSA4 aut.5 aut.Vanderbilt University Medical CenterNashville, TNUSA6 aut.Departments of Health Research & Policy and Neurology & Neurological Sciences, Stanford UniversityStanford, CAUSA7 aut.Department of Neurology, George Washington UniversityWashington, DCUSA8 aut.Fort Wayne Neurological CenterFort Wayne, INUSA9 aut.Elkhart ClinicElkhart, INUSA10 aut.470-4782013ENGINIST63453540005065656101400000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.27 ref.13-0261405PANeurologyUSAObjective: This study estimates current and projects future neurologist supply and demand under alternative scenarios nationally and by state from 2012 through 2025. Methods: A microsimulation supply model simulates likely career choices of individual neurologists, taking into account the number of new neurologists trained each year and changing demographics of the neurology workforce. A microsimulation demand model simulates utilization of neurology services for each individual in a representative sample of the population in each state and for the United States as a whole. Demand projections reflect increased prevalence of neurologic conditions associated with population growth and aging, and expanded coverage under health care reform. Results: The estimated active supply of 16,366 neurologists in 2012 is projected to increase to 18,060 by 2025. Long wait times for patients to see a neurologist, difficulty hiring new neurologists, and large numbers of neurologists who do not accept new Medicaid patients are consistent with a current national shortfall of neurologists. Demand for neurologists is projected to increase from ∼18,180 in 2012 (11% shortfall) to 21,440 by 2025 (19% shortfall). This includes an increased demand of 520 full-time equivalent neurologists starting in 2014 from expanded medical insurance coverage associated with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Conclusions: In the absence of efforts to increase the number of neurology professionals and retain the existing workforce, current national and geographic shortfalls of neurologists are likely to worsen, exacerbating long wait times and reducing access to care for Medicaid beneficiaries. Current geographic differences in adequacy of supply likely will persist into the future.002B17002B17A01Pathologie du système nerveux01Nervous system diseases01Sistema nervioso patología01Approvisionnement09Supply09Aprovisionamiento09Neurologie10Neurology10Neurología10252OTOOTO 1352-2310Atmos. environ. : (1994)73An integrated modelling approach to estimate urban traffic emissionsMISRA (Aarshabh)ROORDA (Matthew J.)MACLEAN (Heather L.)Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George StreetToronto, Ontario M5S 1A4CAN1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.Department of Chemical Engineering and Applied Chemistry, University of Toronto, 35 St. George StreetToronto, Ontario M5S 1A4CAN3 aut.81-912013ENGINIST8940B3540001747806701000000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/413-0259396PAAtmospheric environment : (1994)GBRAn integrated modelling approach is adopted to estimate microscale urban traffic emissions. The modelling framework consists of a traffic microsimulation model developed in PARAMICS, a microscopic emissions model (Comprehensive Modal Emissions Model), and two dispersion models, AERMOD and the Quick Urban and Industrial Complex (QUIC). This framework is applied to a traffic network in downtown Toronto, Canada to evaluate summer time morning peak traffic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) during five weekdays at a traffic intersection. The model predicted results are validated against sensor observations with 100% of the AERMOD modelled CO concentrations and 97.5% of the QUIC modelled NO_x concentrations within a factor of two of the corresponding observed concentrations. Availability of local estimates of ambient concentration is useful for accurate comparisons of predicted concentrations with observed concentrations. Predicted and sensor measured concentrations are significantly lower than the hourly threshold Maximum Acceptable Levels for CO (31 ppm, ˜90 times lower) and NO₂ (0.4 mg/m³, ∼12 times lower), within the National Ambient Air Quality Objectives established by Environment Canada.001D16C03Modélisation01Modeling01Modelización01Pollution air02Air pollution02Contaminación aire02Zone urbaine03Urban area03Zona urbana03Trafic routier04Road traffic04Tráfico carretera04Qualité air05Air quality05Calidad aire05Monoxyde de carboneNKFX06Carbon monoxideNKFX06Carbono monóxidoNKFX06Oxyde d'azote07Nitrogen oxide07Nitrógeno óxido07Prévision pollution atmosphérique08Atmospheric pollution forecasting08Previsión contaminación del ambiente08Modèle prévision09Forecast model09Modelo previsión09Emission polluant10Pollutant emission10Emisión contaminante10OntarioNG31OntarioNG31OntarioNG31Véhicule à moteur36Motor vehicle36Vehículo de motor36Composé de l'azoteNK37Nitrogen compoundsNK37Compuesto nitrogenadoNK37CanadaNGCanadaNGCanadáNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG252 0315-1468CJCEB8Can. j. civ. eng. : (Print)401Rule-based transit signal priority control method using a real-time transit travel time prediction modelLEE (Jinwoo)SHALABY (Amer)Civil Engineering and Built Environment School, Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of TechnologyBrisbane, QueenslandAUS1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George StreetToronto, ON M5S 1A4CAN2 aut.68-752013ENGfreINIST167483540005006767800800000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.13-0255180PACanadian journal of civil engineering : (Print)CANUn système de signalisation de priorité pour le transport en commun (TSP) basé sur des règles avancées est présenté. Un modèle de prévision du temps de trajet en ligne est la composante principale de la méthode proposée, laquelle permet de choisir les plans de TSP les plus appropriés aux conditions prédominantes de circulation et de transport en commun. La nouvelle méthode adopte également une caractéristique de développement d'un plan de priorités permettant de modifier ou même de changer le plan de priorité déjà implanté afin de s'adapter aux changements dans les conditions de circulation. La méthode proposée utilise les stratégies conventionnelles de feu vert étendu et de troncature du feu rouge et également deux nouvelles stratégies, incluant la troncature du feu vert et le dégagement des files. La nouvelle méthode est évaluée par rapport à une stratégie typique active de TSP et au scénario de base, en ne présumant aucun contrôle TSP dans la microsimulation. Les résultats de l'évaluation indiquent que la méthode proposée peut présenter des avantages importants de réduction des délais d'autobus et d'amélioration de la régularité du service tout en ayant des impacts nuisibles négligeables sur la circulation non routière et celle de transit.001D15A001D15C001D14O05001D15B295Transport en commun02Collective transport system02Transporte colectivo02Transport routier03Road transportation03Transporte por carretera03Signalisation routière04Road signalling04Señalización tráfico04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Priorité06Priority06Prioridad06Gestion trafic07Traffic management07Gestión tráfico07Autobus08Bus08Autobus08Etude méthode09Method study09Estudio método09Régulation trafic10Traffic control10Regulación tráfico10Règle11Rule11Regla11Modèle prévision12Forecast model12Modelo previsión12Durée trajet13Travel time13Duración trayecto13Etude cas14Case study14Estudio caso14OntarioNG15OntarioNG15OntarioNG15CanadaNGCanadaNGCanadáNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG245PSIPSI 0315-1468CJCEB8Can. j. civ. eng. : (Print)402A nationwide web-based freight data collectionSAMIMI (Amir)MOHAMMADIAN (Abolfazl)KAWAMURA (Kazuya)Civil Engineering Department, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Ave.TehranIRN1 aut.Department of Civil and Materials Engineering, University of Illinois at ChicagoChicago, ILUSA2 aut.College of Urban Planning and Public Affairs, University of Illinois at ChicagoChicago, ILUSA3 aut.114-1202013ENGfreINIST167483540005006888200200000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.13-0254840PACanadian journal of civil engineering : (Print)CANSeulement quelques études ont tenté d'appliquer des modèles comportementaux à l'analyse des politiques de fret mais, en raison du manque de données, la plupart des études n'ont pas produit de résultats satisfaisants. De nombreux décideurs ne veulent pas participer aux sondages qui leur demandent leurs décisions d'expédition, puisqu'une telle information est une partie importante de leur stratégie d'affaire et, c'est bien compréhensible, ils ont peur de perdre leur avantage compétitif s'ils y participent. Cela engendre normalement de piètres taux de participation aux sondages sur le fret et les rend très dispendieux dans plusieurs cas. Toutefois, des résultats empiriques récents suggèrent que le lien entre les taux de refus de répondre et les biais de non-réponse est souvent inexistant. Le présent article examine une analyse du biais de non-réponse d'un sondage en ligne réalisé pour obtenir des données sur le développement en cours d'un modèle comportemental de microsimulation de fret. La méthode de sondage, la conception et les défis d'obtenir l'information sur l'expédition de ces compagnies sont également abordés dans cette étude. [Traduit par la Rédaction].001D15BPolitique transport02Transportation policy02Política transporte02Transport marchandise03Freight transportation03Transporte mercadería03Analyse tendance04Trend analysis04Análisis tendencia04Collecte donnée05Data gathering05Recolección dato05Echelon national06National scope06Escalón nacional06Etats-UnisNG07United StatesNG07Estados UnidosNG07Enquête08Survey08Encuesta08Préférence09Preference09Preferencia09Statistique descriptive10Descriptive statistics10Estadística descriptiva10Erreur systématique11Bias11Error sistemático11Retour expérience12Experience feedback12Retorno experiencia12Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG245PSIPSI 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1395Drivers' Lane Utilization for United Kingdom MotorwaysYOUSIF (Saad)AL-OBAEDI (Jalal)HENSON (Ralph)Transport Studies, Univ. of SalfordManchester M5 4WTGBR1 aut.Univ. of Al-Qadissia, College of EngineeringAl-QadissiaIRQ2 aut.Univ. of SalfordManchester M5 4WTGBR3 aut.441-4472013ENGINIST572E3540005041036500300000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.13-0249183PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSALane utilization represents how the rate of traffic flow is distributed among the available number of lanes in a given section. This utilization or split is affected by several factors, including traffic flow rates and the presence and amount of heavy-goods vehicles (HGVs) within the traffic. It is important to study lane utilization because it is one of the input parameters for any traffic microsimulation models, which are increasingly being used to assess and suggest solutions for traffic problems. This paper uses two sources of data to model lane utilization-motorway incident detection and automatic signaling (MIDAS) data and individual-vehicles raw data. The latter source of data is specifically used to model how HGVs are distributed between motorway lanes as flow increases because MIDAS data do not specify the proportions of HGVs by lanes. Because the data used to develop the models in this paper are based on a relatively large set of data (compared with those represented by older models), one could argue that these models are more representative of current lane utilization on United Kingdom motorways. The development of lane-utilization models for HGV traffic will help in providing more realistic predictions of traffic behavior when represented by microsimulation models and in assessing such commercial vehicles using the lanes when it comes to pavement design.001D15C001D14O02295Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Autoroute03Freeway03Autopista03Ecoulement trafic04Traffic flow04Flujo tráfico04Royaume-UniNG05United KingdomNG05Reino UnidoNG05Analyse tendance06Trend analysis06Análisis tendencia06Utilisation07Use07Uso07Voie circulation08Traffic lane08Vía tráfico08Distribution charge09Load distribution09Distribución carga09Chaussée10Pavement10Calzada10Poids lourd11Heavy truck11Peso pesado11Modélisation12Modeling12Modelización12Modèle simulation13Simulation model13Modelo simulación13Modèle régression14Regression model14Modelo regresión14Analyse donnée15Data analysis15Análisis datos15EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG238PSIPSI 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1394Lane Choice Model for Signalized Intersections with an Auxiliary Through LaneBUGG (Zachary)ROUPHAIL (Nagui M.)SCHROEDER (Bastian)Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State Univ., Campus Box 8601Raleigh, NC 27695-8601USA1 aut.Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State Univ., Campus Box 8601Raleigh, NC 27695-8601USA2 aut.Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State Univ., Campus Box 8601Raleigh, NC 27695-8601USA3 aut.371-3782013ENGINIST572E3540001733164700400000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.13-0248355PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAAn auxiliary through lane (ATL) is a commonly used congestion relief measure at signalized intersections in which fiscal and right-of-way constraints do not allow for full widening between intersections. Previously developed models have predicted the flow in the ATL as a function of macroscopic elements, such as through-movement demand and the ratio of average green time to cycle length. However, these models explain neither driver behavior nor motivation to use the ATL, nor can such an approach be used in microscopic simulation models. This paper presents empirically developed models for driver lane choice at signalized intersection approaches with one ATL and one continuous through lane (CTL). These models were developed from a calibration data set that covers eight ATL approaches in three U.S. states, for a total of 12 h of observation. The results suggest that the utility of the ATL is a function of each through-movement driver's arrival time (during either the effective red or green phase), and the queue lengths in either lane at the time of arrival. After calibration, the models were evaluated by applying them to data from a validation site from outside the calibration data set. The paper concludes with a discussion of how the models should be implemented within the lane-change algorithms of microsimulation systems.001D15C001D15B001D14O02295Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Gestion trafic03Traffic management03Gestión tráfico03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Simulation05Simulation05Simulación05Choix discret06Discrete choice06Selección discreta06Voie circulation07Traffic lane07Vía tráfico07Intersection08Intersection08Intersección08Feu signalisation09Traffic lights09Semáforo09Algorithme10Algorithm10Algoritmo10Modèle comportement11Behavior model11Modelo comportamiento11Choix site12Site selection12Elección sitio12Technique vidéo13Video technique13Técnica video13Caroline du NordNG14North CarolinaNG14Carolina del norteNG14Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG238PSIPSI 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1394Variable Speed Limit Control Design for Relieving Congestion Caused by Active BottlenecksHADIUZZAMAN (Md.)QIU (Tony Z.)LU (Xiao-Yun)Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Alberta, 6-106 Natural Resources Engineering Facility (NREF)Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2W2.CAN1 aut.Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Alberta, 3-005 NREFEdmonton, Alberta, T6G 2W2CAN2 aut.California Partners for Advanced Transportation TecHnology (PATH), Univ. of California, Berkeley, 1357 S. 46th St.Richmond, CA 94804-4648CAN3 aut.358-3702013ENGINIST572E3540001733164700300000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.13-0248354PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAVariable speed limit (VSL) can be used on freeways to manage traffic flow with the goal of improving capacity. To achieve this objective, it is necessary that both speed and density dynamics be represented accurately. In this study, to deeply understand the effectiveness of VSL control, an analytical model was developed to represent drivers' response to updated speed limits and macroscopic speed dynamical change with respect to changeable speed limits. Specifically, to model the freeway links having VSL control, the fundamental diagram (FD) was replaced with the VSL control variable in the relaxation term of the METANET. This modification led to the speed control variable appearing linearly, which is preferable for online computation. The density dynamics are based on the cell transmission model (CTM), which is introduced to estimate the transition flow among successive links with some practical constraints. It also offers flexibility in designing active bottleneck in which there is a capacity drop once feeding flow exceeds its capacity. To exploit this benefit, a modification was introduced in the FD of the density dynamics. A VSL control strategy was proposed that explicitly considers traffic characteristics at active bottleneck and its upstream-downstream segments. It can control traffic flow into any type of active bottleneck. Then, the proposed traffic dynamics with the control strategy are implemented in a freeway corridor using the model predictive control (MPC) approach. The analysis was carried out in the calibrated microsimulation model, VISSIM, within a scenario in which shock waves were present. The microsimulation model functions as a proxy for the real-world traffic system. This study reveals that, in terms of mobility, VSL is mostly effective during congestion periods.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Ecoulement trafic03Traffic flow03Flujo tráfico03Congestion trafic04Traffic congestion04Congestión tráfico04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Vitesse déplacement07Speed07Velocidad desplazamiento07Modèle prévision08Forecast model08Modelo previsión08Limitation vitesse09Speed limit09Limitación velocidad09Goulot étranglement10Bottleneck10Gollete estrangulamiento10Commande prédictive11Predictive control11Control predictiva11Essai en place12In situ test12Ensayo en sitio12Corridor13Corridor13Corredor13Autoroute14Freeway14Autopista14CanadaNG15CanadaNG15CanadáNG15Fonction objectif16Objective function16Función objetivo16Etalonnage17Calibration17Contraste17Résultat18Result18Resultado18Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG238PSIPSI 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy48Impact of carbon intensity and energy security constraints on China's coal importBOQIANG LINJIANGHUA LIUYINGCHUN YANGNew Huadu Business School, Minjiang UniversityFuzhou 350108CHN1 aut.China Center for Energy Economics Research, College of Economics, Xiamen UniversityXiamen 361005CHN1 aut.2 aut.School of International Business Administration, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, no. 777, Guoding RoadShanghai 200433CHN3 aut.137-1472012ENGINIST164173540005040725401500000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.13-0242765PAEnergy policyGBRLogistic and Gaussian Curves are adopted in this article to predict the coal production peak for Shanxi province, Henan province as well as the whole of China. According to the prediction based on the basic coal reserve data, coal production in China will reach its peak in the 2030 s while that of Shanxi and Henan provinces will be achieved by the 2040 s and 2020 s respectively. This article also assesses the influential factors of China's coal peak and revises the forecast of Lin and Liu (2010) about China's coal demand by taking the CO2 intensity constraint into consideration, and then predicting the corresponding coal import. The results show that China would import 983 million tonnes of coal in 2020; which takes as high as 27% of China's total coal consumption. This article demonstrates that even if China fulfills CO2 intensity constraint, the country's energy situation would still be grim as a result of its high GDP growth rate. Therefore, China has to consider both CO2 intensity and energy security constraints when establishing strategic energy plan. Finally, this article suggests an adjustment of energy structure by which those constraints can be addressed and further assesses the effect of the adjusted energy structure.001D06A01C2A001D06A01A001D06A01B001D06D11D230CharbonFX01CoalFX01CarbónFX01Offre et demande02Supply demand balance02Oferta y demanda02Production03Production03Producción03Pic04Peak04Pico04Déplétion05Depletion05Depleción05Réserve06Reserve06Reserva06Consommation07Consumption07Consumo07Importation08Import08Importación08Sécurité approvisionnement09Reliability of supply09Lutte antipollution10Pollution control10Lucha anticontaminación10Emission polluant11Pollutant emission11Emisión contaminante11Dioxyde de carboneNKFX12Carbon dioxideNKFX12Carbono dióxidoNKFX12Modèle économétrique13Econometric model13Modelo econométrico13Modèle simulation14Simulation model14Modelo simulación14Long terme15Long term15Largo plazo15Variation spatiale16Spatial variation16Variación espacial16Répartition géographique17Geographic distribution17Distribución geográfica17ChineNG18ChinaNG18ChinaNG18Politique énergétique19Energy policy19Política energética19AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG231 0033-3735PUROAQPublic roads765Understanding Driver Behavior in Work ZonesLOCHRANE (Taylor W. P.)AL-DEEK (Haitham)PARACHA (Jawad)SCRIBA (Tracy)FHWA's Office of Operations Research and DevelopmentINC1 aut.Department of Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering at the University of Central FloridaUSA2 aut.FHWA's Office of Transportation OperationsINC3 aut.4 aut.22-252013ENGINIST41403540005037499100400000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.13-0236889PAPublic roadsUSAResearchers are working on microsimulation modeling to improve mobility and reduce congestion.001D15C001D15A001D14O06295Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Analyse comportementale03Behavioral analysis03Análisis conductual03Conducteur véhicule04Vehicle driver04Conductor vehículo04Chantier05Working site05Taller05Voirie06Road work06Vialidad06Instrumentation07Instruments07Instrumentación07Modélisation08Modeling08Modelización08Simulation numérique09Numerical simulation09Simulación numérica09Expérimentation10Experimentation10Experimentación10Enquête11Survey11Encuesta11En ligne12On line12En línea12Etats-UnisNG13United StatesNG13Estados UnidosNG13Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG224PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2323Joint Household-Level Analysis of Individuals' Work Arrangement ChoicesTravel Behavior 2012. Volume 2KHAN (Mubassira)PALETI (Rajesh)BHAT (Chandra R.)PENDYALA (Ram M.)Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1761Austin TX 78712-0278USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Room ECG252Tempe, AZ 85287-5306USA4 aut.56-662012ENGINIST10459B3540005024485500700000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.30 ref.13-0234528PATransportation research recordUSAThis paper presents a comprehensive, multidimensional, multivariate binary probit model that can simultaneously represent multiple aspects of individuals' work arrangement decisions while accounting for interactions between household members in individual employment-related choices. The model is estimated on the basis of a survey sample drawn from the San Francisco Bay Area, California, from which a rich set of accessibility measures is available to account for built environment influences on work-related decisions. Model results show that a host of demographic, socioeconomic, built environment, and attitudinal variables influence individual choices regarding work arrangements; more importantly, the model shows that there is much employment-related interaction among household members. The model can be used to predict the employment choices of individuals within larger microsimulation models of activity-travel demand.001D15ATransports02Transportation02Transportes02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Analyse comportementale04Behavioral analysis04Análisis conductual04Choix05Choice05Elección05Ménage06Household06Familia06Modèle probit07Probit model07Modelo probit07Prise de décision08Decision making08Toma decision08Interaction09Interaction09Interacción09Travail10Work10Trabajo10Emploi11Employment11Empleo11Analyse donnée12Data analysis12Análisis datos12Enquête13Survey13Encuesta13CalifornieNG14CaliforniaNG14CaliforniaNG14Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG217PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2319Agent-Based Parking Choice ModelDemand Management and Carsharing 2012WARAICH (Rashid A.)AXHAUSEN (Kay W.)Institute for Transport Planning and Systems, Swiss Federal Institute of TechnologyZurich, 8093CHE1 aut.2 aut.39-462012ENGINIST10459B3540005024483000500000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.23 ref.13-0234515PATransportation research recordUSAParking choice is an essential part of individual transportation; however, many travel demand and traffic simulations do not include parking. This paper reports on a proposal for a simple parking model and describes how this model was implemented into an existing, agent-based traffic simulation. The parking model provides feedback to the traffic simulation so that the overall simulation can react to spatial differences in parking demand and supply. Simulation results of a scenario in the city of Zurich, Switzerland, demonstrated that the model could capture key elements of parking, including capacity and pricing, and could assist with designing parking-focused transport policies. The paper also discusses possible work, such as microsimulation of the search for large-scale parking.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Stationnement03Parking03Estacionamiento03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Choix05Choice05Elección05Orienté agent06Agent oriented06Orientado agente06Demande transport07Transport demand07Demanda transporte07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Implémentation09Implementation09Implementación09Politique10Policy10Política10Infrastructure11Infrastructure11Infraestructura11Parc stationnement12Parking lot12Parque estacionamiento12SuisseNG13SwitzerlandNG13SuizaNG13EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG217PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2324Microsimulation Modeling of Coordination of Automated Guided Vehicles at IntersectionsIntelligent Transportation Systems and Vehicle-Highway Automation 2012MAKAREM (Laleh)PHAM (Minh-Hai)DUMONT (André-Gilles)GILLET (Denis)Real-Time Coordination and Distributed Interaction Systems Group, Station 9CHE1 aut.4 aut.Laboratory of Traffic Facilities, Station 18, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne1015 LausanneCHE2 aut.3 aut.119-1242012ENGINIST10459B3540001733000301400000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.13 ref.13-0234062PATransportation research recordUSAOne of the challenges with autonomous vehicles is their performance at intersections. An alternative control method for the coordination of autonomous vehicles at intersections is shown. The proposed approach was grounded in multiple-robot coordination and took into account vehicle dynamics as well as realistic communications constraints. The existing concept of decentralized navigation functions was combined with a sensing model, and a crossing strategy was developed. The simulation results showed that because of the proposed approach, vehicles had smoother trajectories when crossing at a four-way intersection. The proposed method was compared with adaptive traffic lights and roundabouts in terms of throughput. Results showed that using a decentralized navigation function for the coordination of autonomous vehicles improved their performance by reducing energy consumption and pollution emissions.001D15CVéhicule routier02Road vehicle02Vehículo caminero02Système automatique03Automatic system03Sistema automático03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Simulation05Simulation05Simulación05Coordination06Coordination06Coordinación06Véhicule guidé07Guided vehicle07Vehículo guiado07Intersection08Intersection08Intersección08Formulation09Formulation09Formulación09Système commande10Control system10Sistema control10Système décentralisé11Decentralized system11Sistema descentralizado11Priorité12Priority12Prioridad12Vitesse déplacement13Speed13Velocidad desplazamiento13Consommation carburant14Motor fuel consumption14Consumo carburante14Emission polluant15Pollutant emission15Emisión contaminante15217PSIPSI 0009-7322CIRCAZCirculation : (N. Y. N.Y.)12724Economic Evaluation of Percutaneous Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion, Dabigatran, and Warfarin for Stroke Prevention in Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial FibrillationSINGH (Sheldon M.)MICIELI (Andrew)WIJEYSUNDERA (Harindra C.)Division of Cardiology, Schulich Heart Centre, Department of Medicine, Sunnybrook Health Sciences CentreToronto, ONCAN1 aut.3 aut.Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, ONCAN1 aut.3 aut.Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative, University of Toronto, ONCAN3 aut.Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto, ONCAN3 aut.Institute for Clinical Evaluative SciencesToronto, ONCAN3 aut.Faculty of Medicine, University of OttawaOttawa, ONCAN2 aut.2414-24232013ENGINIST59073540005030932801000000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.45 ref.13-0232947PACirculation : (New York, N.Y.)USABackground-Percutaneous left atrial appendage (LAA) occlusion and novel pharmacological therapies are now available to manage stroke risk in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation; however, the cost-effectiveness of LAA occlusion compared with dabigatran and warfarin in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation is unknown. Methods and Results-Cost-utility analysis using a patient-level Markov microsimulation decision analytic model with a lifetime horizon was undertaken to determine the lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life years, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of LAA occlusion in relation to dabigatran and warfarin in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at risk for stroke without contraindications to oral anticoagulation. The analysis was performed from the perspective of the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long Term Care, the third-party payer for insured health services in Ontario, Canada. Effectiveness and utility data were obtained from the published literature. Cost data were obtained from the Ontario Drug Benefits Formulary and the Ontario Case Costing Initiative. Warfarin therapy had the lowest discounted quality-adjusted life years at 4.55, followed by dabigatran at 4.64 and LAA occlusion at 4.68. The average discounted lifetime cost was $21429 for a patient taking warfarin, $25 760 for a patient taking dabigatran, and $27 003 for LAA occlusion. Compared with warfarin, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for LAA occlusion was $41 565. Dabigatran was extendedly dominated. Conclusions-Percutaneous LAA occlusion represents a novel therapy for stroke reduction that is cost-effective compared with warfarin for patients at risk who have nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.002B12B03002B17C002B12A02002B02GAccident cérébrovasculaire01Stroke01Accidente cerebrovascular01Fibrillation auriculaire02Atrial fibrillation02Fibrilación auricular02Hémorragie03Hemorrhage03Hemorragia03Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire04Cardiovascular disease04Aparato circulatorio patología04Economie santé09Health economy09Economía salud09Santé publique10Public health10Salud pública10Voie percutanée11Percutaneous route11Vía percutánea11Oreillette gauche12Left atrium12Orejuela izquierda12Occlusion13Occlusion13Oclusión13DabigatranNKFR14DabigatranNKFR14DabigatránNKFR14WarfarineNKFRFFFX15WarfarinNKFRFFFX15WarfarinaNKFRFFFX15Prévention16Prevention16Prevención16Homme17Human17Hombre17Malade18Patient18Enfermo18Anticoagulant19Anticoagulant19Anticoagulante19Appareil circulatoire20Circulatory system20Aparato circulatorio20Cardiologie21Cardiology21Cardiología21Antithrombotique78Antithrombotic agent78antitrombōtico78Antithrombine37Antithrombin37Antitrombina37Inhibiteur enzyme38Enzyme inhibitor38Inhibidor enzima38ThrombinNKFEFR39ThrombinNKFEFR39ThrombinNKFEFR39Serine endopeptidasesFESerine endopeptidasesFESerine endopeptidasesFEPeptidasesFEPeptidasesFEPeptidasesFEHydrolasesFEHydrolasesFEHydrolasesFEEnzymeFEEnzymeFEEnzimaFEAntivitamine K40Antivitamin K40Antivitamina K40Dérivé de la coumarineFR41Coumarine derivativesFR41Pathologie cérébrovasculaire42Cerebrovascular disease42Vaso sanguíneo encéfalo patología42Pathologie de l'encéphale43Cerebral disorder43Encéfalo patología43Pathologie du système nerveux central44Central nervous system disease44Sistema nervosio central patología44Pathologie du système nerveux45Nervous system diseases45Sistema nervioso patología45Pathologie des vaisseaux sanguins46Vascular disease46Vaso sanguíneo patología46Cardiopathie47Heart disease47Cardiopatía47Trouble de l'excitabilité48Excitability disorder48Trastorno excitabilidad48Trouble du rythme cardiaque49Arrhythmia49Arritmia49217OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2311Evaluation of Transit Signal Priority Options for Future Bus Rapid Transit Line in West Valley City, UtahTraffic Signal Systems 2012ZLATKOVIC (Milan)STEVANOVIC (Aleksandar)MARTIN (Peter T.)TASIC (Ivana)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, 110 Central Campus DriveSalt Lake City, UT 84112USA1 aut.3 aut.4 aut.Civil Engineering, Florida Atlantic University, Building 36, Room 225, 777 Glades RoadBoca Raton, FL 33431USA2 aut.176-1852012ENGINIST10459B3540001732211701700000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.13-0232643PATransportation research recordUSAThis paper presents an analysis of different transit signal priorities (TSPs) for a future bus rapid transit (BRT) corridor in West Valley City, Utah. The goal was to find the optimal TSP strategy for estimated and planned traffic and transit operations. The study used VISSIM microsimulation software in combination with ASC/3 software-in-the-loop simulation. Four models were used in the analysis: no TSP, TSP, TSP with phase rotation, and custom TSP. The results showed that TSP with phase rotation and custom TSP could both be considered for implementation. TSP with phase rotation would provide significant benefits for BRT, with minimum impacts on vehicular traffic. Custom TSP would provide major benefits for BRT in travel times, delays, and stops. However, this strategy has more impact on vehicular traffic. Custom TSP is an advanced strategy that still needs examination and improvement. The study provides a set of instructions on how the described strategies can be implemented in field traffic controllers.001D15C001D15BTransport routier02Road transportation02Transporte por carretera02Gestion trafic03Traffic management03Gestión tráfico03Priorité04Priority04Prioridad04Autobus05Bus05Autobus05Ligne nouvelle06New railway line06Línea nueva06UtahNG07UtahNG07UtahNG07Modélisation08Modeling08Modelización08Etude cas09Case study09Estudio caso09Evaluation performance10Performance evaluation10Evaluación prestación10Intersection11Intersection11Intersección11Durée trajet12Travel time12Duración trayecto12Planification13Planning13Planificación13Résultat14Result14Resultado14Transport en commun15Collective transport system15Transporte colectivo15Bus à haut niveau de serviceCD96Bus rapid transitCD96Autobús exprésCD96Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG217PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2311Development and Evaluation of Algorithm for Resolution of Conflicting Transit Signal Priority RequestsTraffic Signal Systems 2012ZLATKOVIC (Milan)STEVANOVIC (Aleksandar)MARTIN (Peter T.)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, 110 Central Campus DriveSalt Lake City, UT 84112USA1 aut.3 aut.Civil, Environmental, and Geomatics Engineering, Florida Atlantic University, Building 36, Room 225, 777 Glades RoadBoca Raton, FL 33431USA2 aut.167-1752012ENGINIST10459B3540001732211701600000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.8 ref.13-0232642PATransportation research recordUSAThe goal of this study was the development and evaluation of an algorithm for resolving conflicting requests for transit signal priority (TSP). This algorithm was designed to work with actual traffic controllers without the need for new hardware or software installations. The algorithm was tested in VISSIM microsimulation and ASC/3 software-in-the-loop controllers on an intersection that will be upgraded to serve two conflicting bus rapid transit (BRT) lines. The ASC/3 logic processor was used to control built-in TSPs in the case of conflicting requests and to develop custom-TSP strategies that would not rely on built-in TSP. Custom TSP provides a much higher level of TSP for transit vehicles than built-in TSP, and it creates opportunities for more adaptable TSP control. The results showed that the widely used first-come, first-served policy for resolution of conflicting TSP requests was not the best solution. Such a policy could perform worse than a policy that provided no priority. For the analyzed intersection, the first-come, first-served option even increased BRT delays by 13% more than did the no-TSP option. The presented algorithm can help resolve the problem of the conflicting TSP requests. The algorithm worked best when combined with several TSP strategies. For the custom-TSP strategies, the application of the algorithm reduced BRT delays by more than 30%, with minimal impact on vehicular traffic. The algorithm shows promising results, and with small upgrades, it can be applied to any type of TSP.001D14O05001D15C295Feu signalisation02Traffic lights02Semáforo02Priorité03Priority03Prioridad03Trafic routier05Road traffic05Tráfico carretera05Intersection06Intersection06Intersección06Croisement routier07Cross roads07Intersección carretera07Résolution conflit08Conflict resolution08Resolución conflicto08Algorithme09Algorithm09Algoritmo09Méthode multipas10Multistep method10Método multipaso10Modélisation11Modeling11Modelización11Résultat12Result12Resultado12Evaluation performance13Performance evaluation13Evaluación prestación13217PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2311Long-Term Benefits of Adaptive Traffic Control Under Varying Traffic Flows During Weekday Peak HoursTraffic Signal Systems 2012STEVANOVIC (Aleksandar)KERGAYE (Cameron)STEVANOVIC (Jelka)Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geomatics Engineering, Florida Atlantic University, Building 36, Room 225, 777 Glades RoadBoca Raton, FL 33431USA1 aut.Utah Department of Transportation, P.O. Box 148410Salt Lake City, Utah 84114-8410USA2 aut.Northwest 3rd CourtBoca Raton, FL 33431USA3 aut.99-1072012ENGINIST10459B3540001732211700900000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.18 ref.13-0232624PATransportation research recordUSAWhen adaptive traffic control systems (ATCSs) are evaluated, traffic signal engineers and practitioners often collect data for a few weeks before and after installation. Benefits are then estimated on the basis of this limited data set. The evaluation of an ATCS with microsimulation requires considerable collection of field data. However, once an ATCS is installed, an abundance of data is collected and stored by the ATCS itself. These data (mostly traffic volumes) can be used to recreate field variability of traffic conditions in a model and perform long-term ATCS evaluation studies. This paper reports on the projected long-term benefits of deploying an ATCS. Field traffic data were statistically processed and modeled in microsimulation. The Sydney coordinated adaptive traffic system (SCATS) and two time-of-day (TOD) plans were exposed to variability of field traffic flows modeled in VISSIM. A simple calculation was then performed to extrapolate results to a period of 10 years. Findings showed that SCATS outperformed existing TOD signal-timing plans by about 20% and was better than the best TOD plan that could be theoretically developed on the basis of collection of long-term data. Results from the study revealed that short-term analyses often obscured the true benefits of deploying an ATCS. A computation of the monetary value of achieved benefits showed that limited operational benefits reported in this paper, when projected over the long term, would exceed overall installation costs for SCATS in Park City, Utah. These benefits are expected to increase further with inclusion of the analysis periods that were not part of this study.001D15C001D15B001D14O05295Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Régulation trafic03Traffic control03Regulación tráfico03Ecoulement trafic04Traffic flow04Flujo tráfico04Long terme05Long term05Largo plazo05Commande adaptative06Adaptive control06Control adaptativo06Feu signalisation07Traffic lights07Semáforo07Période pointe08Peak period08Essai en place09In situ test09Ensayo en sitio09Simulation10Simulation10Simulación10Modélisation11Modeling11Modelización11Résultat12Result12Resultado12UtahNG13UtahNG13UtahNG13Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG217PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2311Multiheadway Gap-Out Logic for Actuated Control on Multilane ApproachesTraffic Signal Systems 2012CESME (Burak)FURTH (Peter G.)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, 400 Snell Engineering, 360 Huntington AvenueBoston, MA 02115USA1 aut.2 aut.117-1232012ENGINIST10459B3540001732211701100000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.9 ref.13-0232623PATransportation research recordUSAThe efficiency of actuated signals depends on quick detection when the queue has discharged and flow rate has dropped below the saturation rate. The traditional detection method is to measure headway between successive vehicles. In single-lane approaches, this measurement works well because the safety need for longitudinal spacing during saturation flow keeps headway variability small. However, on multilane approaches, headways are far more variable (headways near zero are common); for a low probability of premature gap-out, the critical gap has to be set extremely long so that traffic well below the saturation flow rate can hold the light green. This critical gap requirement makes multilane operations inefficient. This paper proposes a gap-out logic that is based on multiheadways, the time needed for several vehicles to pass a detector. For example, for three-lane approaches, the variability of three- or six-vehicle multiheadways is much lower than that of single headways, and this low variability enables the controller to distinguish saturation flow from lower flow more easily. Through microsimulation, intersection operations based on multiheadway logic were compared with traditional detection and lane-by-lane detection. Multiheadway logic performed best in reducing delay and cycle length; the greatest improvement occurred when traffic was heavy.001D14O05001D15C001D15B295Feu signalisation02Traffic lights02Semáforo02Actionneur03Actuator03Accionador03Gestion trafic04Traffic management04Gestión tráfico04Trafic routier05Road traffic05Tráfico carretera05Voie circulation06Traffic lane06Vía tráfico06Ecoulement trafic07Traffic flow07Flujo tráfico07Détecteur08Detector08Detector08Modèle simulation09Simulation model09Modelo simulación09Résultat10Result10Resultado10Utilisation11Use11Uso11217PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2311Guidance for Simulation-Based Modeling of Auxiliary Through LanesTraffic Signal Systems 2012BUGG (Zachary)ROUPHAIL (Nagui M.)SCHROEDER (Bastian)Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State University, Centennial Campus, Box 8601Raleigh, NC 27695-8601USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.51-582012ENGINIST10459B3540001732211700500000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.9 ref.13-0232620PATransportation research recordUSAAuxiliary through lanes (ATLs) are a cost-effective means for reducing congestion at signalized intersections, but little guidance is currently available on how to model ATL operations in a microsimulation environment. Without calibration, microsimulation tools assign some vehicles to an ATL as a function of basic lane-changing algorithms; this process results in much higher ATL utilization than observed in the field. This paper presents empirical models that explain ATL use as a function of through-movement congestion. This level of ATL utilization can be achieved in simulation tools by altering certain parameters, chiefly the upstream decision distance (UDD) of the ATL. Peak-hour counts and signal-timing data were collected at 22 ATL approaches from across the United States and coded into simulation to compare field and simulated ATL utilization. Modification of the UDD enabled close modeling of ATL utilization at 19 of 22 sites; the remaining three ATLs could not be modeled accurately in simulation because they experienced extremely low field utilization (less than 10% of total through-movement flow). After calibration, a model that approximated the correct UDD as a function of the total entering through-movement flow and ATL length was empirically developed. This model will allow practitioners to have a starting point when modeling a planned ATL in microsimulation packages; practitioners can then use the ATL operational models for further calibration of the UDD to simulate the correct level of ATL use.001D15C001D15B001D14O02295Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Gestion trafic03Traffic management03Gestión tráfico03Congestion trafic04Traffic congestion04Congestión tráfico04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Guidage06Guidance06Guiado06Voie circulation07Traffic lane07Vía tráfico07Changement de voie08Lane change08Cambio de carril08Simulation09Simulation09Simulación09Méthodologie10Methodology10Metodología10Modèle prévision11Forecast model11Modelo previsión11Choix site12Site selection12Elección sitio12Etats-UnisNG13United StatesNG13Estados UnidosNG13Intersection14Intersection14Intersección14Feu signalisation15Traffic lights15Semáforo15Croisement routier16Cross roads16Intersección carretera16Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG217PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2316Safety First: Microsimulation Approach to Assessing Congestion Effects on Risk by Experienced DriversTraffic Flow Theory and Characteristics 2012. Traffic Flow Theory and Characteristics 2012. Volume 2TALEBPOUR (A.)MAHMASSANI (Hani S.)HAMDAR (S. H.)Department of Civil Engineering, Northwestern University, 600 Foster StreetEvanston, IL 60208USA1 aut.Transportation Center, 215 Chambers Hall, Northwestern University, 600 Foster StreetEvanston, IL 60208USA2 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering and Applied Science, George Washington University, 20101 Academic Way, Room 201-1Ashburn, VA 20147USA3 aut.106-1132012ENGINIST10459B3540001732998901200000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.16 ref.13-0232586PATransportation research recordUSAPrevailing traffic conditions affect highway safety and the processes by which drivers perceive a stimulus, evaluate it, and execute a corresponding driving maneuver. Several efforts have been made to use microscopic traffic simulation for evaluating highway safety. However, these efforts faced serious challenges because previous acceleration and lane-changing models had been built in an accident-free environment with different layers of safety constraints. A new approach relies on a cognitive risk-based microscopic model to study the relationship between prevailing traffic conditions and the risk experienced by drivers in a traffic stream. The model can consider accidents endogenously through lane-changing logic and provide an indicator of relative roadway safety as experienced by drivers. Six scenarios are simulated. The results show the importance of lane changing to understanding accident and near-accident occurrence in simulation models. A risk value comparison reveals that work zone bottlenecks have a greater impact on drivers' risk-taking tendencies than bottlenecks caused by uphill grades.001D15CTrafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Sécurité trafic03Traffic safety03Seguridad tráfico03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Modèle simulation05Simulation model05Modelo simulación05Congestion trafic06Traffic congestion06Congestión tráfico06Analyse risque07Risk analysis07Análisis riesgo07Retour expérience08Experience feedback08Retorno experiencia08Conducteur véhicule09Vehicle driver09Conductor vehículo09Formulation10Formulation10Formulación10Simulation numérique11Numerical simulation11Simulación numérica11Scénario12Script12Argumento12217PSIPSI 0264-8377Land use policy34Modelling the transportation of primary aggregates in England and Wales: Exploring initiatives to reduce CO₂ emissionsCHENGCHAO ZUOBIRKIN (Mark)CLARKE (Graham)MCEVOY (Fiona)BLOODWORTH (Andrew)School of Geography, University of LeedsWest Yorkshire LS2 9JTGBR1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.British Geological SurveyKeyworth, Nottingham NG12 5GGGBR4 aut.5 aut.112-1242013ENGINIST281333540005038100401100000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.13-0221783PALand use policyNLDMillions of tonnes of aggregates are transported across England and Wales each year, which causes constant concerns in regard to CO₂ emissions. Much of that concern arises out of the long journeys from quarries to construction sites, and the fact that the main mode of transfer is by road. The aim of this paper is to describe the construction of a spatial decision support system (SDSS) to examine the impacts of scenarios to reduce the level of CO₂ emissions. The SDSS is made up of a GIS containing a set of spatial models (including a spatial interaction model and a microsimulation model) underpinned by a detailed transport network of road and rail routes across England and Wales. The spatial interaction models are first calibrated to reproduce the existing set of flows of aggregates between quarries and local authority districts. The distance decay component is the travel distance equivalent across the road and rail networks. Based on these flows, linear models can be set up to estimate the amount of CO₂ emissions associated with the existing set of flows. Then a series of what-if scenarios are set up which look at how changes in any part of the geography of production, the level of demand in certain areas or the transport process will impact the CO₂ emissions. The paper demonstrates the capability of the SDSS in responding to the various spatial policies applied in different stages of the supply chain of the aggregates markets.002A14DModélisation01Modeling01Modelización01Transports02Transportation02Transportes02Emission gaz03Gas emission03Emisión gas03Système information géographique04Geographic information system04Sistema información geográfica04Modèle spatial05Spatial model05Modelo espacial05Occupation sol06Land use06Ocupación terreno06Politique environnement07Environmental policy07Política medio ambiente07Dioxyde de carboneNKFX15Carbon dioxideNKFX15Carbono dióxidoNKFX15CarboneNC16CarbonNC16CarbonoNC16AngleterreNG20EnglandNG20InglaterraNG20Pays de GallesNG21WalesNG21País de GalesNG21Grande BretagneNGGreat BritainNGGran BretañaNGRoyaume-UniNGUnited KingdomNGReino UnidoNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEurope OuestNG59Western EuropeNG59Europa del OesteNG59203OTOOTO 0968-090XTransp. res., Part C Emerg. technol.28Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and smart grids: Investigations based on a microsimulationWARAICH (Rashid A.)GALUS (Matthias D.)DOBLER (Christoph)BALMER (Michael)ANDERSSON (Göran)AXHAUSEN (Kay W.)Institute for Transport Planning and Systems (IVT), ETH Zürich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 158093 ZürichCHE1 aut.3 aut.6 aut.Power Systems Laboratory (PSL), ETH Zürich8093 ZürichCHE2 aut.5 aut.Senozon AG8093 ZurichCHE4 aut.74-862013ENGINIST12377C3540005024811200600000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.13-0220718PATransportation research. Part C, Emerging technologiesGBRThe introduction of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and electric vehicles (EVs), commonly referred to as plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), could trigger a stepwise electrification of the whole transportation sector. However, the potential impact of PEV charging on the electric grid is not fully known, yet. This paper presents an iterative approach, which integrates a PEV electricity demand model and a power system simulation to reveal potential bottlenecks in the electric grid caused by PEV energy demand. An agent-based traffic demand model is used to model the electricity demand of each vehicle over the day. An approach based on interconnected multiple energy carrier systems is used as a model for a possible future energy system. Experiments demonstrate that the model is sensitive to policy changes, e.g., changes in electricity price result in modified charging patterns. By implementing an intelligent vehicle charging solution it is demonstrated how new charging schemes can be designed and tested using the proposed framework.001D15CAutomobile02Motor car02Automóvil02Véhicule électrique03Electric vehicle03Vehículo eléctrico03Véhicule hybride04Hybrid vehicle04Vehículo híbrido04Système intelligent05Intelligent system05Sistema inteligente05Modélisation06Modeling06Modelización06Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Technologie08Technology08Tecnología08Description système09System description09Descripción sistema09Expérimentation10Experimentation10Experimentación10Véhicule électrique rechargeableCD96Plug-in electric vehicleCD96Vehículo eléctrico enchufableCD96203PSIPSI 1746-4498v. 128Transport and traffic management by micro simulation models: operational use and performance of roundaboutsUrban transport XVIII : urban transport and the environment in the 21st centuryPRATICO (F. G.)VAIANA (R.)GALLELLI (V.)LONGHURST (James W. S.)ed.BREBBIA (C. A.)ed.University MediterraneaReggio CalabriaITA1 aut.University of Calabria, Arcavacata Campus-CosenzaITA2 aut.3 aut.383-3942012ENGWIT PressSouthampton978-1-8456-4580-9INISTY 398303540005082106603300000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.18 ref.13-0207318PCATransactions on the built environmentGBRThe performance of roundabouts can affect urban transport systems in terms of environmental and operational impacts, safety and efficiency. The development of roundabout traffic management and control systems can be carried out through road traffic micro-simulation models which are computer models where the movements of individual vehicles travelling around road networks are determined by using simple car following, lane changing and gap acceptance rules. Unfortunately, despite the great diffusion of these tools, appropriate methods are still needed in order to validate and calibrate these models. In general, the calibration process can be defined in this way: the process of comparing model parameters with real-world data to ensure that the model realistically represents the traffic environment. The objective is to minimize the discrepancy between model results and measurements or observations. The aim of this paper is the presentation of a first comparative approach between observed performances and performances obtained by the use of popular microsimulation software, in particular urban intersections such as roundabouts. In particular, an experimental investigation is designed and carried out in order to acquire some vehicular parameters for a roundabout placed in an urban contest of southern Italy. The calibration process is carried out by an analysis of variance of the kinematic parameters of an n-tuple of roundabout scenarios. This calibration procedure has permitted to derive some important conclusions about the choice of the most significant input parameters for the output results of each simulation scenario. Outcomes of this study are expected to benefit both practitioners and researchers.001D15C001D15B001D14O02295Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Gestion trafic03Traffic management03Gestión tráfico03Carrefour giratoire04Roundabout04Bifurcación giratoria04Modèle simulation05Simulation model05Modelo simulación05Analyse variance06Variance analysis06Análisis variancia06Cinématique07Kinematics07Cinemática07Evaluation performance08Performance evaluation08Evaluación prestación08Etalonnage09Calibration09Contraste09Etude expérimentale10Experimental study10Estudio experimental10Scénario11Script11Argumento11Suivi de véhiculeCD96Car followingCD96189PSIPSIInternational Conference on Urban Transport and the Environment18La Coruña ESP2012 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1393Road Transition Zones between the Rural and Urban Environment: Evaluation of Speed and Traffic Performance Using a Microsimulation ApproachCALIENDO (Ciro)DE GUGLIELMO (Maria Luisa)Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of SalernoFisciano (SA) 84084ITA1 aut.2 aut.295-3052013ENGINIST572E3540005024776700600000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.13-0205106PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAA microsimulation approach is presented for evaluating the effectiveness of a transition zone connecting the rural to the urban environment using speeds computed in simulation for showing whether drivers slow down far enough below the imposed speed limit before entering the small urbanized area. The proposed approach was also applied to prove whether, both within the transition zone and on the rural roads approaching this zone, acceptable values of the traffic performance measures expressed in terms of delay time and queue length were ensured. Five design alternatives based on the horizontal deflection were tested. The results showed that the simulated mean speeds were lower than the 50 km/h speed limit imposed at the start of the urbanized area for all transition zones investigated. However, a scenario with a roundabout and a T-type intersection to which two auxiliary lanes for right turns were added was also identified as having better values of the traffic performance measures. The transition zone that was built, in accordance with expert judgments, was found to confirm the effectiveness of the simulated solution. Additionally, the present paper introduces a speed-delay time model. 1.001D15CTrafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Région transition05Transition zone05Región transición05Zone urbaine06Urban area06Zona urbana06Zone rurale07Rural area07Zona rural07Vitesse déplacement08Speed08Velocidad desplazamiento08Temps retard09Delay time09Tiempo retardo09Evaluation performance10Performance evaluation10Evaluación prestación10Scénario11Script11Argumento11Etude comparative12Comparative study12Estudio comparativo12Résultat mesure13Measurement result13Resultado medición13Recommandation14Recommendation14Recomendación14Carrefour giratoire15Roundabout15Bifurcación giratoria15189PSIPSI 40Le modèle de microsimulation TRAJECTOiRE (TRAJEctoire de Carrières TOus REgimes)DUC (Cindy)LEQUIEN (Laurent)HOUSSET (Félix)PLOUHINEC (Corentin)2013-05FRE56 p.BDSP/MIN-SANTEBIB00067789880013-0202287PMSERIE SOURCES ET METHODES - DOCUMENT DE TRAVAIL - DREESFRALe modèle de micro-simulation TRAJECTOiRE (TRAJEctoire de Carrières TOus REgimes) simule la carrière d'un échantillon d'individus, ainsi que tous les éléments nécessaires au calcul d'une pension de retraite (trimestres cotisés dans chaque caisse de retraite, trimestres validés, salaire, etc.). Il simule ensuite les comportements de départ à la retraite, en fonction d'une législation dont les caractéristiques sont modifiables. Enfin, il calcule une pension de retraite tous régimes pour chaque individu002B30A11MéthodologieMethodologyMetodologíaRetraiteRetirementJubilaciónCharges socialesSocial chargesCargas sociales189 0336-1454455-456Réformer le système de remboursement pour les soins de ville, une analyse par microsimulationSystèmes de santéGEOFFARD (P.Y.)DE LAGASNERIE (G.)Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques. (I.N.S.E.E.). Paris.FRA89-1132013-05FREBDSP/IRDESS188800dissem.13-0202229PAECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUEFRALes évolutions du système de remboursement des dépenses de soins par l'assurance publique ont progressivement diminué la couverture publique du risque maladie. Ce système laisse à la charge des assurés des sommes qui peuvent s'avérer importantes lorsque ceux-ci traversent des épisodes de maladie longs et coûteux, et parfois même lorsqu'ils bénéficient d'exonérations au titre d'une affection de longue durée. L'assurance complémentaire est de fait devenue nécessaire. Cependant, 7% de la population ne jouit pas d'une telle assurance. Cet article étudie une réforme possible de l'assurance maladie obligatoire qui prend la forme d'un plafond annuel de la participation financière en soins de ville. Un tel plafond serait financé par l'instauration de franchises annuelles. Nous évaluons cette réforme à partir de micro-simulations appliquées aux données de l'enquête santé soins médicaux 2003, appariée avec les données de remboursement de l'assurance maladie publique (SNIIR-AM) (résumé d'auteur)002B30A11RégulationRegulation(control)RegulaciónAssurance maladieHealth insuranceSeguro enfermedadAmbulatoireAmbulatoryAmbulatorioSoinCareCuidadoDépenseExpenditureGastoSantéHealthSaludLongue duréeLong lastingLarga duraciónMaladieDiseaseEnfermedadProtection socialeWelfare aidsProtección socialFinancementFinancingFinanciaciónEvaluationEvaluationEvaluaciónModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoSimulationSimulationSimulaciónModèleModelsModeloFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG189 0007-0920BJCAAIBr. j. cancer10810Treatment of local-regional prostate cancer detected by PSA screening: benefits and harms according to prognostic factorsWEVER (E. M.)HEIJNSDIJK (E. A. M.)DRAISMA (G.)BANGMA (C. H.)ROOBOL (M. J.)SCHRÖDER (F. H.)DE KONING (H. J.)Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, P.O. Box 2040Rotterdam, 3000, CANLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.7 aut.Department of Urology, Erasmus Medical Center, P.O. Box 2040Rotterdam, 3000, CANLD4 aut.5 aut.6 aut.1971-19772013ENGINIST69253540005030096200800000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.13-0196889PABritish journal of cancerGBRBackground: Men with screen-detected prostate cancer can choose to undergo immediate curative treatment or enter into an expectant management programme. We quantified how the benefits and harms of immediate treatment vary according to the prognostic factors of clinical T-stage, Gleason score, and patient age. Methods: A microsimulation model based on European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer data was used to predict the benefits and harms of immediate treatment versus delayed treatment of local-regional prostate cancer in men aged 55-74 years. Benefits included life-years gained and reduced probability of death from prostate cancer. Harms included lead time and probability of overdiagnosis. Results: The ratio of mean lead time to mean life-years gained ranged from 1.8 to 31.2, and the additional number of treatments required per prostate cancer death prevented ranged from 0.3 to 11.6 across the different prognostic groups. Both harm-benefit ratios were lowest, most favourable, for men aged 55-59 years and diagnosed with moderate-risk prostate cancer. Ratios were high for men aged 70-74 years regardless of clinical T-stage and Gleason score. Conclusion: Men aged 55-59 years with moderate-risk prostate cancer are predicted to derive greatest benefit from immediate curative treatment. Immediate treatment is least favourable for men aged 70-74 years with either low-risk or high-risk prostate cancer.002B04C002B14D02Cancer de la prostateNM01Prostate cancerNM01Cáncer de la próstataNM01Traitement régional02Regional treatment02Tratamiento regional02Antigène spécifique prostate03Prostate specific antigen03Antigeno específico prostata03Marqueur tumoral04Tumoral marker04Marcador tumoral04Dépistage05Medical screening05Descubrimiento05Danger06Danger06Peligro06Pronostic08Prognosis08Pronóstico08PlombNCFX09LeadNCFX09PlomoNCFX09Espérance de vie11Life expectancy11Esperanza de vida11Cancérologie12Cancerology12Cancerología12SurdiagnosticCD96OverdiagnosisCD96SobrediagnósticoCD96Pathologie de l'appareil génital mâle37Male genital diseases37Aparato genital macho patología37Pathologie de l'appareil urinaire38Urinary system disease38Aparato urinario patología38Tumeur maligneNM39Malignant tumorNM39Tumor malignoNM39CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie de la prostate40Prostate disease40Prostata patología40Métal lourd41Heavy metal41Metal pesado41182OTOOTO 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1392Standard Pedestrian Equivalent Factors: New Approach to Analyzing Pedestrian FlowGALIZA (Ronald John)FERREIRA (Luis)School of Civil Engineering, The Univ. of QueenslandBrisbane, Queensland 4072AUS1 aut.2 aut.208-2152013ENGINIST572E3540005024045701200000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.13-0194655PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAThe design and planning of pedestrian walking facilities must be undertaken in the context of the prevailing and future local traffic composition. The latter is changing rapidly as a result of demographic changes such as aging population and obesity trends. If the traffic consists of a significant proportion of various pedestrian groups, some form of adjustment factor may need to be introduced in the dimensioning process. This paper introduces the concept of standard pedestrian equivalent factors as a practical systematic methodology when dealing with heterogeneity in pedestrian flow. Pedestrian microsimulation was employed to evaluate hypothetical pedestrian proportions to generate corresponding flow relationships. To estimate the factors, the equivalent time-space concept was utilized in order to consider the effects of the differences in physical and operational characteristics of pedestrians, particularly walking speed and body sizes. These characteristics were varied across different flow conditions, walkway widths, and proportions of other pedestrian types in the study sensitivity analysis. A case study was also conducted by utilizing field-collected data in order to illustrate the significance and relevance of the methodology in determining walkway widths.001D15C001D14O02295Trafic piéton02Pedestrian traffic02Tráfico peatones02Trottoir03Footway03Acera03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Ecoulement trafic05Traffic flow05Flujo tráfico05Corrélation spatiotemporelle06Space time correlation06Correlación espacio tiempo06Analyse donnée07Data analysis07Análisis datos07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Recommandation09Recommendation09Recomendación09175PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2312Analytical Method for Estimating Delays to Vehicles Traversing Single-Lane Roundabouts as a Function of Vehicle and Pedestrian VolumesRoundabouts and Emergency Evacuation 2012HELLINGA (Bruce)SINDI (Alaa)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue WestWaterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1CAN1 aut.2 aut.56-662012ENGINIST10459B3540001825204000600000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.13 ref.13-0191948PATransportation research recordUSAModern roundabouts that have unsignalized pedestrian crossings typically provide right-of-way to pedestrians, and therefore vehicles entering or exiting the roundabout must yield to pedestrians. The requirement that vehicles seek gaps in the pedestrian stream results in four distinct sources of delay to vehicles traversing the roundabout. Existing analytical methods for estimating delays to vehicles entering roundabouts typically consider only one of these four sources and ignore the other three. This paper presents an analytical model for estimating delays to vehicles traversing a single-lane roundabout. The model is based on gap acceptance and queuing models and explicitly estimates delays for each of the four sources for each origin-destination movement in the roundabout. The proposed model is evaluated for a typical single-lane roundabout by comparing the model estimates with estimates obtained from the VISSIM simulation model and the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) method for a range of traffic and pedestrian volumes. The results of this evaluation demonstrate that the proposed model is superior to the HCM method and provides delay estimates that are comparable with those obtained from microsimulation modeling. Further research is recommended to validate the model results by using field data.001D14O02001D15C295Carrefour giratoire02Roundabout02Bifurcación giratoria02Trafic routier03Road traffic03Tráfico carretera03Trafic piéton04Pedestrian traffic04Tráfico peatones04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Méthode analytique06Analytical method06Método analítico06Véhicule routier07Road vehicle07Vehículo caminero07Retard08Delay08Retraso08Etalonnage09Calibration09Contraste09Validation10Validation10Validación10Recommandation11Recommendation11Recomendación11Modèle simulation12Simulation model12Modelo simulación12175PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2312Delay Analysis of Single-Lane Roundabout with a Slip Lane Under Varying Exit Types, Experimental Balanced Traffic Volumes, and Pedestrians, Using MicrosimulationRoundabouts and Emergency Evacuation 2012AL-GHANDOUR (Majed)SCHROEDER (Bastian)RASDORF (William)WILLIAMS (Billy)Development Branch, North Carolina Department of Transportation, 1534 Mail Service CenterRaleigh, NC 27699-1534USA1 aut.Highway Systems Group, Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State University, Centennial Campus Box 8601Raleigh, NC 27695-8601USA2 aut.Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Campus Box 7908Raleigh, NC 27606-7908USA3 aut.4 aut.76-852012ENGINIST10459B3540001825204000800000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.11 ref.13-0191946PATransportation research recordUSAA slip lane facilitates right-turning traffic flow, reduces approach delay, and reduces conflict points within a roundabout. In this paper the delay performance of a single-lane roundabout with an adjacent slip lane is modeled with the VISSIM microsimulation tool for three slip lane exit types (free-flow, yield, and stop) and the results are compared with a roundabout having no slip lane. The VISSIM assessment considers four experimental traffic percentage turning volume distributions as balanced flow scenarios (total traffic flow into and out of every roundabout approach is the same). Simulated slip lane right-turning traffic volumes range from 50 to 500 vehicles/h, and the four pedestrian volume levels range from 0 to 100 pedestrians/h. VISSIM results confirm that average delays in a roundabout with a slip lane are a function of circulating conflict volumes and are related exponentially to slip lane volumes regardless of the slip lane exit type. Results also indicate that a free-flow slip lane exit type best reduces total average delay in the roundabout and in the slip lane itself. Yield and stop slip lane exit types also reduce the roundabout total average delay but to a lesser degree. Finally, at a higher traffic volume, a free-flow slip lane exit type can increase roundabout delay from 6.6 to 34.7 s/vehicle if drivers must yield the right-of-way to high pedestrian traffic (100 pedestrians/h) crossing a free-flow slip lane (priority rule).001D14O02001D15C295Carrefour giratoire02Roundabout02Bifurcación giratoria02Trafic routier03Road traffic03Tráfico carretera03Méthodologie04Methodology04Metodología04Analyse donnée05Data analysis05Análisis datos05Retard06Delay06Retraso06Etude expérimentale07Experimental study07Estudio experimental07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Modèle microscopique09Microscopic model09Modelo microscópico09Recommandation10Recommendation10Recomendación10Etude comparative11Comparative study11Estudio comparativo11175PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2312Effect of Pedestrian Impedance on Vehicular Capacity at Multilane Roundabouts with Consideration of Crossing TreatmentsRoundabouts and Emergency Evacuation 2012SCHROEDER (Bastian)ROUPHAIL (Nagui M.)SALAMATI (Katayoun)BUGG (Zachary)Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State University, Campus Box 8601Raleigh, NC 27695-8601USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.14-242012ENGINIST10459B3540001825204000200000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.27 ref.13-0191933PATransportation research recordUSAPast research has documented that pedestrian crossings at modern roundabouts can result in an impedance effect on the available capacity of entering traffic. The magnitude of this impedance effect is intuitively linked to the allocation of rights-of-way at the crosswalk, where a greater likelihood of driver yielding is expected to affect capacity more severely. However, existing pedestrian impedance models in the 2010 Highway Capacity Manual and the FHWA Roundabout Guide are not sensitive to yielding rates. The principal objective of this paper is to quantify pedestrian impedance effects on the vehicular entry capacity at multilane roundabouts as a function of driver yielding behavior. A calibrated microsimulation model is used to develop the relationships and explore changes in volume and yielding parameters. Impedance models are further developed for the pedestrian hybrid beacon (PHB) treatment, which is gaining increasing attention at multilane roundabouts across the United States. The results confirm the expected effects that the pedestrian impedance is more severe with higher pedestrian flow rates but decreases in severity with greater conflicting flows. The results further show that the effect of varying yielding rates on the impedance effect is minimal for congested roundabout approaches, because the relative effect of yielding is small compared with that of pedestrian volumes and conflicting circulating flow. The analysis of the PHB treatment shows that the impedance effect of the same pedestrian flows is generally less than that for an unsignalized crossing environment.001D14O02001D15C295Carrefour giratoire02Roundabout02Bifurcación giratoria02Trafic routier03Road traffic03Tráfico carretera03Trafic piéton04Pedestrian traffic04Tráfico peatones04Passage piéton05Pedestrian walk05Pasaje peatones05Modélisation06Modeling06Modelización06Analyse quantitative07Quantitative analysis07Análisis cuantitativo07Etalonnage08Calibration08Contraste08Expérimentation09Experimentation09Experimentación09Scénario10Script10Argumento10175PSIPSI 0167-5273IJCDD5Int. j. cardiol.1661The personal and national costs of CVD: Impacts on income, taxes, government support payments and GDP due to lost labour force participationSCHOFIELD (Deborah)SHRESTHA (Rupendra)PERCIVAL (Richard)PASSEY (Megan)CALLANDER (Emily)KELLY (Simon)NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of SydneyCamperdown, NSWAUS1 aut.2 aut.5 aut.School of Public Health, University of SydneyNSWAUS1 aut.5 aut.National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of CanberraCanberra, ACTAUS3 aut.6 aut.Northern Rivers University Department of Rural Health, University of SydneyLismore, NSWAUS4 aut.68-712013ENGINIST164573540005041513301100000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.29 ref.13-0187798PAInternational journal of cardiologyIRLBackground: CVD has the ability to interrupt an individual's ability to participate in the labour force, and this can have considerable follow-up on impacts to both the individual and the state. This study aimed to quantify the personal cost of lost income and the cost to the state from lost income taxation, increased benefit payments and lost GDP as a result of early retirement due to CVD in Australians aged 45-64 in 2009. Methods: Cross-sectional analysis of the base population of Health&WealthMOD, a microsimulation model built on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers and STINMOD, an income and savings microsimulation model. Results: Individuals aged 45 to 64 years who have retired early due to CVD have a median value of total weekly income of only $268 whereas those who are employed full time are likely to have almost five times this. The national aggregate impact of CVD through the loss of labour force participation amongst 45 to 64 year olds, equated to around AU$1.1 billion in lost income, $AU225 million in lost income taxation revenue, AU$85 million in additional government benefit payments, and AU$748 million in lost GDP, in 2009 alone. Conclusions: The costs of CVD to both individuals and the state are considerable. Whilst individuals bear the economic costs of lost income in addition to the burden of the condition itself, the state impacts are loss of productivity from reduced workforce participation, lost income taxation revenue, and increasing government support payments - in addition to direct health care costs.002B12ACoût09Costs09Coste09Economie santé10Health economy10Economía salud10Aspect économique11Economic aspect11Aspecto económico11Santé publique12Public health12Salud pública12Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire13Cardiovascular disease13Aparato circulatorio patología13Revenu économique14Income14Renta14Gouvernement15Government15Gobierno15Aspect politique16Political aspect16Aspecto político16Politique sanitaire17Health policy17Política sanitaria17Support18Support18Soporte18Paiement19Payment19Pago19Population active20Labour force20Población activa20Participation21Participation21Participación21Impact économique22Economic impact22Impacto económico22Taxation23Taxation23Tasación23Retraite24Retirement24Jubilación24Cardiologie25Cardiology25Cardiología25Maladie cardiovasculaireCD96Cardiovascular diseaseCD96Cardiovascular enfermedadCD96Epidémiologie37Epidemiology37Epidemiología37168OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2303Application of Socioeconomic Model System for Activity-Based Modeling: Experience from Southern CaliforniaTravel Demand Forecasting 2012. Volume 2PENDYALA (Ram M.)BHAT (Chandra R.)GOULIAS (Konstadinos G.)PALETI (Rajesh)KONDURI (Karthik C.)SIDHARTHAN (Raghu)HU (Hsi-Hwa)GUOXIONG HUANGCHRISTIAN (Keith P.)School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Room ECG252, Arizona State UniversityTempe, AZ 85287-5306USA1 aut.5 aut.9 aut.Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station, C1761Austin TX 78712-0278USA2 aut.4 aut.6 aut.Department of Geography, University of CaliforniaSanta Barbara, CA 93106-4060USA3 aut.Southern California Association of Governments, 818 West Seventh Street, 12th FloorLos Angeles, CA 90017USA7 aut.8 aut.71-802012ENGINIST10459B3540001825202400800000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.16 ref.13-0181137PATransportation research recordUSAThis paper presents results from the application of a comprehensive socioeconomic and demographic model system in conjunction with a continuous-time, activity-based microsimulation model of travel demand developed for the Southern California Association of Governments. The socioeconomic model system includes two major components. The first is a synthetic population generator that is capable of synthesizing a representative population for the entire region while controlling for both household- and person-level marginal distributions. The second is an econometric microsimulator that models various socioeconomic and demographic attributes for each person in the synthetic population with a view to developing a rich set of input data for the activity-based microsimulation model system. The results show that the socioeconomic model system is capable of replicating known distributions of demographic attributes in the population and can be easily scaled for implementation in large regions such as the Southern California area, which includes a population of more than 18 million people in its model boundaries.001D15BTransports02Transportation02Transportes02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Socioéconomie04Socioeconomics04Socioeconomía04CalifornieNG05CaliforniaNG05CaliforniaNG05Application06Application06Aplicación06Retour expérience07Experience feedback07Retorno experiencia07Etude comparative08Comparative study08Estudio comparativo08Modèle prévision09Forecast model09Modelo previsión09Enquête10Survey10Encuesta10Ménage11Household11Familia11Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG161PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2303Integrated Land Use-Transport Model System with Dynamic Time-Dependent Activity-Travel MicrosimulationTravel Demand Forecasting 2012. Volume 2PENDYALA (Ram M.)KONDURI (Karthik C.)CHIU (Yi-Chang)HICKMAN (Mark)NOH (Hyunsoo)WADDELL (Paul)LIMING WANGYOU (Daehyun)GARDNER (Brian)School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Room ECG252, Arizona State UniversityTempe, AZ 85287-5306USA1 aut.2 aut.8 aut.Department of Civil Engineering and Engineering Mechanics, University of Arizona, 1209 East Second Street, Room 206ATucson, AZ 85721USA3 aut.4 aut.5 aut.College of Environmental Design, University of California at Berkeley, 228 Wurster Hall, Room 1850Berkeley, CA 94720-1820USA6 aut.7 aut.FHWA, U.S. Department of Transportation, 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE, HEPP-30Washington, DC 20590USA9 aut.19-272012ENGINIST10459B3540001825202400300000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.21 ref.13-0181134PATransportation research recordUSAThe development of integrated land use-transport model systems has long been of interest because of the complex interrelationships between land use, transport demand, and network supply. This paper describes the design and prototype implementation of an integrated model system that involves the microsimulation of location choices in the land use domain, activity-travel choices in the travel demand domain, and individual vehicles on networks in the network supply modeling domain. Although many previous applications of integrated transport demand- supply models have relied on a sequential coupling of the models, the system presented in this paper involves a dynamic integration of the activity-travel demand model and the dynamic traffic assignment and simulation model with appropriate feedback to the land use model system. The system has been fully implemented, and initial results of model system runs in a case study test application suggest that the proposed model design provides a robust behavioral framework for simulation of human activity-travel behavior in space, time, and networks. The paper provides a detailed description of the design, together with results from initial test runs.001D15B001D14A06295Transports02Transportation02Transportes02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Gestion intégrée04Integrated management04Gestión integrada04Occupation sol05Land use05Ocupación terreno05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Activité07Activity07Actividad07Voyage08Travel08Viaje08Dépendance du temps09Time dependence09Dependencia del tiempo09Modèle dynamique10Dynamic model10Modelo dinámico10Implémentation11Implementation11Implementación11161PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2302Modifiable Attribute Cell Problem and Solution Method for Population Synthesis in Land Use MicrosimulationTravel Demand Forecasting 2012. Volume 1OTANI (Noriko)SUGIKI (Nao)VICHIENSAN (Varameth)MIYAMOTO (Kazuaki)Faculty of Environmental and Information Studies, Tokyo City University, 3-3-1 Ushikubo-NishiTsuzuki-Ku, Yokohama 224-8551JPN1 aut.4 aut.Transportation Department, Docon Company, Ltd., 4-1, 5-Chome, 1-Jo, Atsubetsu-ChuoAtsubetsu, Sapporo 004-8585JPN2 aut.Faculty of Engineering, Kasetsart University, 50 Phaholyothin Road, LardyaoJatujak, Bangkok 10900THA3 aut.157-1632012ENGINIST10459B3540001825201601700000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.17 ref.13-0181125PATransportation research recordUSALand use microsimulation requires the preparation of a set of microdata for the base year. Most existing procedures used for the synthesis of population data are based on the iterative proportional fitting method, in which the number of individuals in each cell of the cross-classification table is estimated. Such a procedure is referred to as the cell-based approach in this study. The approach is based on predefined categories of individuals. Originally, however, these individuals have continuous attributes. Therefore, a different type of categorization would yield a different classification table, which would change the end results of the analysis. In this paper, this phenomenon is referred to as the modifiable attribute cell problem (MACP). It is similar to the modifiable area unit problem that arises when spatial data are aggregated into zones. This paper addresses MACP and proposes a method to determine the best combination of the categories. The solution of MACP is considered to be the minimization of the number of cells in a table with respect to the key output variable that has been defined and used as an evaluation criterion. Because of the computational difficulty resulting from the combination explosion, symbiotic evolution, which is a kind of genetic algorithm, is used. Finally, a case study is presented for the Sapporo metropolitan area of Japan.001D15B001D14A06295Transports02Transportation02Transportes02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Occupation sol05Land use05Ocupación terreno05161PSIPSI 0968-090XTransp. res., Part C Emerg. technol.26A comparative assessment of multi-sensor data fusion techniques for freeway traffic speed estimation using microsimulation modelingBACHMANN (Chris)ABDULHAI (Baher)ROORDA (Matthew J.)MOSHIRI (Behzad)Department of Civil Engineering, University of TorontoM5S 1A4CAN1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.33-482013ENGINIST12377C3540001825176000300000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.13-0168259PATransportation research. Part C, Emerging technologiesGBRReal-time traffic speed estimation is a fundamental task for urban traffic management centers and is often a critical element of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). For this purpose, various sensors are used to collect traffic information. For many applications, the information provided by individual sensors is incomplete, inaccurate and/or unreliable. Therefore, a fusion based estimate provides a more effective approach towards traffic speed estimation. In this paper, seven multi-sensor data fusion-based estimation techniques are investigated. All methods are implemented and compared in terms of their ability to fuse data from loop detectors and probe vehicles to accurately estimate freeway traffic speed. For the purposes of a rigorous comparison, data are generated from a microsimulation model of a major freeway in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The microsimulation model includes loop detectors and a newly implemented traffic monitoring system that detects Bluetooth-enabled devices traveling past roadside Bluetooth receivers, allowing for an automated method of probe vehicle data collection. To establish the true traffic speed that each fusion method attempts to estimate, all vehicles in the microsimulation model are equipped with GPS devices. Results show that most data fusion techniques improve accuracy over single sensor approaches. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the improvement by data fusion depends on the technique, the number of probe vehicles, and the traffic conditions.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Autoroute03Freeway03Autopista03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Etude comparative05Comparative study05Estudio comparativo05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Capteur multiple07Multisensor07Multisensor07Fusion donnée08Data fusion08Fusión datos08Vitesse déplacement09Speed09Velocidad desplazamiento09Modèle microscopique10Microscopic model10Modelo microscópico10Système intelligent11Intelligent system11Sistema inteligente11Gestion trafic12Traffic management12Gestión tráfico12Etude cas13Case study13Estudio caso13CanadaNG14CanadaNG14CanadáNG14Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG147PSIPSI 0887-3801JCCEE5J. comput. civ. eng.271Computational-Based Approach to Estimating Travel Demand in Large-Scale Microscopic Traffic Simulation ModelsSHAN HUANGSADEK (Adel W.)LIYA GUOUniv. at Buffalo, State Univ. of New York, Dept. of Civil, Structural and Environmental EngineeringBuffalo, NY 14260USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.78-862013ENGINIST572X3540005062885900900000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.13-0165593PAJournal of computing in civil engineeringUSAThe increased interest in the development and application of large-scale or regional microsimulation transportation models has brought to the forefront the challenges associated with estimating the dynamic demand information needed to run such models. This paper develops a computational-based approach for estimating or adjusting dynamic origin-destination matrices for regional microsimulation models on the basis of hourly traffic counts. The proposed approach, while based on genetic algorithms (GA), includes a special module, called Plan Analyzer, to guide the search process in an intelligent way. This results in a customized algorithm for the problem that can be regarded as an example of a guided genetic algorithm (GGA). To cut down on execution time, a distributed implementation of the algorithm is adopted, and several software design procedures are developed to deal with the demanding memory requirements of the problem. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm, the Transportation Analysis and Simulation System (TRANSIMS) model, a microsimulation platform designed for regional simulations, is used to model two test networks, a synthetic grid network and a realistic regional model of Chittenden County, Vermont. The GGA is then utilized to estimate the dynamic demand for those two models on the basis of hourly traffic count information. The results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the GGA in dramatically reducing the average absolute error (AAE) between the simulated and field counts, and in closely estimating the &dquot;true&dquot; demand, which was known in this research by virtue of how the case studies were designed. The results also show that the developed GGA significantly outperforms standard GAs.001D15BTransport urbain02Urban transportation02Transporte urbano02Gestion trafic03Traffic management03Gestión tráfico03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Modèle simulation05Simulation model05Modelo simulación05Demande transport06Transport demand06Demanda transporte06Modèle microscopique07Microscopic model07Modelo microscópico07Algorithme génétique08Genetic algorithm08Algoritmo genético08Modèle origine destination09Origin destination model09Modelo origen destinación09Etude cas10Case study10Estudio caso10Scénario11Script11Argumento11147PSIPSI 0965-8564Transp. res., Part A Policy pract.47Perceived attributes of bus and car mediating satisfaction with the work commuteERIKSSON (Lars)FRIMAN (Margareta)GÄRLING (Tommy)Samot/CTF, Karlstad University651 88 KarlstadSWE1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.Department of Psychology, University of Gothenburg, P.O. Box 50040530 GöteborgSWE3 aut.87-962013ENGINIST12377A3540005062855200900000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/413-0165568PATransportation research. Part A, Policy and practiceGBRIn an experimental simulation employing 123 undergraduates the effect of different travel modes on satisfaction with travel, mood after the day traveled, and satisfaction with the day as a whole were assessed for the work commute by car or bus. Car was rated higher than bus on satisfaction with travel. This mode difference was accounted for by ratings of the mode-specific attributes fun, lifestyle match, and feeling secure for which car was rated higher than bus. It was also shown that satisfaction with travel partially mediated the effect of travel mode on mood. Satisfaction with the day as a whole was however not influenced by travel mode when controlling for the mood effect of travel.001D15C001D15BTransport routier02Road transportation02Transporte por carretera02Autobus03Bus03Autobus03Trajet domicile travail05Travel to work05Trayecto domicilio trabajo05Politique transport06Transportation policy06Política transporte06Transport public07Public transportation07Transporte público07Etude expérimentale08Experimental study08Estudio experimental08Simulation09Simulation09Simulación09Perception10Perception10Percepción10Satisfaction11Satisfaction11Satisfacción11Moyen transport12Transportation mode12Medio transporte12Voyage13Travel13Viaje13Modèle économétrique14Econometric model14Modelo econométrico14Analyse donnée15Data analysis15Análisis datos15SuèdeNG16SwedenNG16SueciaNG16EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG147PSIPSI 0012-3706DICRAGDis. colon rectum564The Management of Patients with T1 Adenocarcinoma of the Low Rectum: A Decision AnalysisJOHNSTON (Calvin F.)TOMLINSON (George)TEMPLE (Larissa K.)BAXTER (Nancy N.)Department of Clinical Decision Making and Health Care, University Health Network and Faculty of Medicine, University of TorontoToronto, OntarioCAN1 aut.2 aut.Department of Colorectal Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer CenterNew York, New YorkUSA3 aut.Department of Surgery and Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto and Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's HospitalToronto, OntarioCAN4 aut.400-4072013ENGINIST132913540005037415700200000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.39 ref.13-0150826PADiseases of the colon & rectumUSABACKGROUND: Decision making for patients with T1 adenocarcinoma of the low rectum, when treatment options are limited to a transanal local excision or abdominoperineal resection, is challenging. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to develop a contemporary decision analysis to assist patients and clinicians in balancing the goals of maximizing life expectancy and quality of life in this situation. DESIGN: We constructed a Markov-type microsimulation in open-source software. Recurrence rates and quality-of-life parameters were elicited by systematic literature reviews. Sensitivity analyses were performed on key model parameters. PATIENTS AND SETTING: Our base case for analysis was a 65-year-old man with low-lying T1N0 rectal cancer. We determined the sensitivity of our model for sex, age up to 80, and T stage. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measured was quality-adjusted life-years. RESULTS: In the base case, selecting transanal local excision over abdominoperineal resection resulted in a loss of 0.53 years of life expectancy but a gain of 0.97 quality-adjusted life-years. One-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated a health state utility value threshold for permanent colostomy of 0.93. This value ranged from 0.88 to 1.0 based on tumor recurrence risk. There were no other model sensitivities. LIMITATIONS: Some model parameter estimates were based on weak data. CONCLUSIONS: In our model, transanal local excision was found to be the preferable approach for most patients. An abdominoperineal resection has a 3.5% longer life expectancy, but this advantage is lost when the quality-of-life reduction reported by stoma patients is weighed in. The minority group in whom abdominoperineal resection is preferred are those who are unwilling to sacrifice 7% of their life expectancy to avoid a permanent stoma. This is estimated to be approximately 25% of all patients. The threshold increases to 12% of life expectancy in high-risk tumors. No other factors are found to be relevant to the decision.002B13B01002B28CCancer du rectumNM01Rectum cancerNM01Cáncer del rectoNM01Résection abdominopérinéale04Abdominoperineal resection04Resección abdominoperineal04Homme07Human07Hombre07Adénocarcinome08Adenocarcinoma08Adenocarcinoma08Rectum09Rectum09Recto09Analyse décision13Decision analysis13Análisis decisión13Chirurgie14Surgery14Cirugía14Qualité de vie15Quality of life15Calidad vida15Gastroentérologie16Gastroenterology16Gastroenterología16Traitement30Treatment30Tratamiento30Tumeur maligneNM37Malignant tumorNM37Tumor malignoNM37CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie de l'appareil digestif38Digestive diseases38Aparato digestivo patología38Pathologie de l'intestin39Intestinal disease39Intestino patología39Pathologie anorectale40Anorectal disease40Anorrectal patología40Pathologie du rectum41Rectal disease41Recto patología41125OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2299Developing Standard Pedestrian-Equivalent Factors: Passenger Car-Equivalent Approach for Dealing with Pedestrian DiversityPedestrians 2012GALIZA (Ronald John)FERREIRA (Luis)School of Civil Engineering, University of QueenslandBrisbane, Queensland 4072AUS1 aut.2 aut.166-1732012ENGINIST10459B3540001825200801800000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.34 ref.13-0149936PATransportation research recordUSASimilar to vehicular traffic, pedestrians, despite having diverse capabilities and body sizes, can be classified as heterogeneous. The use of vehicular traffic resolves the diversity issue with a conversion of heterogeneous vehicle flow into an equivalent flow with the use of passenger car-equivalent (PCE) factors. Analysis of pedestrian flow has yet to incorporate pedestrian diversity analysis implicitly into the design of pedestrian facilities, although some form of adjustment has been suggested. This paper introduces the concept of PCE-type factors for mixed pedestrian traffic called standard pedestrian-equivalent (SPE) factors. Estimates of SPE factors are made relative to the average commuter. The equivalent total travel time approach for PCE estimation was adapted to consider the effects of the differences in physical and operational characteristics of pedestrians, particularly walking speed and body size. Microsimulation of pedestrians was employed to evaluate hypothetical pedestrian proportions so as to generate corresponding flow relationships. Walking speeds and body sizes were varied across different flow conditions, walkway widths, and proportions of other pedestrian types. The first part of this paper explores how the two pedestrian characteristics (walking speed and body size) influence estimated SPE factors. The second part is a case study in which field-collected data illustrate SPE factors calculated for older adults, obese pedestrians, and their combination. An application of SPE factors demonstrates the robustness of the methodology in bridging the gap between pedestrian compositions and planning practice.001D15CTrafic piéton02Pedestrian traffic02Tráfico peatones02Programme recherche03Research program03Programa investigación03Etude comparative04Comparative study04Estudio comparativo04Trafic routier05Road traffic05Tráfico carretera05Véhicule routier06Road vehicle06Vehículo caminero06Méthodologie07Methodology07Metodología07Analyse quantitative08Quantitative analysis08Análisis cuantitativo08Modèle simulation09Simulation model09Modelo simulación09Analyse sensibilité10Sensitivity analysis10Análisis sensibilidad10Vitesse déplacement11Speed11Velocidad desplazamiento11Ecoulement trafic12Traffic flow12Flujo tráfico12Etude cas13Case study13Estudio caso13Application14Application14Aplicación14Equivalent15Equivalent15Equivalente15125PSIPSI 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy3910Sustainable energy development in Austria until 2020: Insights from applying the integrated model &dquot;e3.at&dquot;STOCKER (Andrea)GROSSMANN (Anett)MADLENER (Reinhard)INGO WOLTER (Marc)SERI-Sustainable Europe Research Institute, Garnisongasse 7/211090 ViennaAUT1 aut.Institute of Economic Structures Research, Heinrichstr. 3049080 OsnabrückDEU2 aut.4 aut.Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), School of Business and Economics/E.ON Energy Research Center, RWTH Aachen University, Mathieustrasse 652074 AachenDEU3 aut.6082-60992011ENGINIST164173540005091907604000000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.13-0146347PAEnergy policyGBRThis paper reports on the Austrian research project &dquot;Renewable energy in Austria: Modeling possible development trends until 2020&dquot;. The project investigated possible economic and ecological effects of a substantially increased use of renewable energy sources in Austria. Together with stakeholders and experts, three different scenarios were defined, specifying possible development trends for renewable energy in Austria. The scenarios were simulated for the period 2006-2020, using the integrated environment-energy-economy model &dquot;e3.at&dquot;. The modeling results indicate that increasing the share of renewable energy sources in total energy use is an important but insufficient step towards achieving a sustainable energy system in Austria. A substantial increase in energy efficiency and a reduction of residential energy consumption also form important cornerstones of a sustainable energy policy.001D06A01C5001D06A01A001D06A01C1001D06A01B230Energie renouvelable01Renewable energy01Energía renovable01Pénétration marché02Market penetration02Penetración mercado02Moyen terme03Medium term03Término medio03202004202004202004AutricheNG05AustriaNG05AustriaNG05Scénario06Script06Argumento06Consommation énergie07Energy consumption07Consumo energía07Répartition par source08Distribution by sources08Repartición por fuente08Impact environnement09Environment impact09Impacto medio ambiente09Emission polluant10Pollutant emission10Emisión contaminante10Dioxyde de carboneNKFX11Carbon dioxideNKFX11Carbono dióxidoNKFX11Modélisation12Modeling12Modelización12Modèle économétrique13Econometric model13Modelo econométrico13Modèle macroéconomique14Macroeconomic model14Modelo macroeconómico14Simulation15Simulation15Simulación15Politique énergétique16Energy policy16Política energética16Modèle e3.atINC72EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG119 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2278Managed Motorways: Modeling and Monitoring Their EffectivenessFreeway Operations; Regional Systems Management and Operations; Managed Lanes 2012VAN VUREN (Tom)BAKER (Jo)OGAWA (Jennifer)COOKE (David)UNWIN (Paul)Mott MacDonald, Canterbury House, 85 Newhall StreetBirmingham B3 1LZGBR1 aut.2 aut.Mott MacDonald, Stoneham Place, Stoneham LaneSouthampton, Hampshire S050 9NWGBR3 aut.Highways Agency, The Cube, 199 Wharfside StreetBirmingham, B1 1RNGBR4 aut.5 aut.85-942012ENGINIST10459B3540005029985901000000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.12 ref.13-0145070PATransportation research recordUSAManaged motorways (formerly known as active traffic management) aim to address traffic congestion and improve journey time reliability with a set of advanced applications of intelligent transport systems to maximize available road capacity. An important feature of managed motorways is the use of hard shoulder running together with variable mandatory speed limits during periods of congestion. Managed motorways were first trialed in the Netherlands and have been in operation in the United Kingdom since 2006. This paper presents the monitoring results of the introduction of managed motorways around Birmingham in the United Kingdom and also describes modeling methods that were used to generalize the findings. Managed motorways around Birmingham have been so effective that they are to be introduced by the UK Highways Agency across the wider network. This paper summarizes the findings of 5 years of monitoring and modeling and refers to the wider set of papers and reports in the public domain for deeper analysis. The paper describes the rigor in monitoring before and after data and in the modeling support for the assessment of outcomes of this transportation investment decision; these outcomes include a reference to the relationship with the economic development in the area. Discussion includes results from a before and after data analysis exercise, the contribution by microsimulation modeling, and findings from an extensive consultation exercise with users of the scheme. The wider economic impacts of investment in managed motorways are examined. The intention is to produce guidance for those transportation organizations that are considering the implementation of managed motorways elsewhere in the world, in particular in the United States.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Autoroute03Freeway03Autopista03Gestion trafic04Traffic management04Gestión tráfico04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Monitorage06Monitoring06Monitoreo06Efficacité07Efficiency07Eficacia07Pays-BasNG08NetherlandsNG08HolandaNG08Ecoulement trafic09Traffic flow09Flujo tráfico09Vitesse déplacement10Speed10Velocidad desplazamiento10Modèle simulation12Simulation model12Modelo simulación12Avantage13Advantage13Ventaja13Aspect économique14Economic aspect14Aspecto económico14EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG119PSIPSI 0009-7322CIRCAZCirculation : (N. Y. N.Y.)1277Cost-Effectiveness of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Drug Eluting Stents Versus Bypass Surgery for Patients With Diabetes Mellitus and Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease: Results From the FREEDOM TrialMAGNUSON (Elizabeth A.)FARKOUH (Michael E.)FUSTER (Valentin)KAIJUN WANGVILAIN (Katherine)HAIYAN LIAPPELWICK (Jaime)MURATOV (Victoria)SLEEPER (Lynn A.)BOINEAU (Robin)ABDALLAH (Mouin)COHEN (David J.)Saint Luke's Mid America Heart InstituteKansas City, MOUSA1 aut.4 aut.5 aut.6 aut.7 aut.11 aut.12 aut.Department of Cardiology, Mount Sinai School of MedicineNew York, NYUSA2 aut.3 aut.Peter Munk Cardiac Centre and Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, University of TorontoToronto, OntarioCAN2 aut.New England Research InstitutesWatertown, MAUSA8 aut.9 aut.National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of HealthBethesda, MDUSA10 aut.FREEDOM Trial InvestigatorsINC820-8312013ENGINIST59073540001732753800800000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.38 ref.13-0139152PACirculation : (New York, N.Y.)USABackground-Studies from the balloon angioplasty and bare metal stent eras have demonstrated that coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is cost-effective compared with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for patients undergoing multivessel coronary revascularization-particularly among patients with complex coronary artery disease or diabetes mellitus. Whether these results apply in the drug-eluting stent (DES) era is unknown. Methods and Results-Between 2005 and 2010, 1900 patients with diabetes mellitus and multivessel coronary artery disease were randomized to PCI with DES (DES-PCI; n=953) or CABG (n=947). Costs were assessed from the perspective of the U.S. health care system. Health state utilities were assessed using the EuroQOL 5 dimension 3 level questionnaire. A patient-level microsimulation model based on U.S. life-tables and in-trial results was used to estimate lifetime cost-effectiveness. Although initial procedural costs were lower for CABG, total costs for the index hospitalization were $8622 higher per patient. Over the next 5 years, follow-up costs were higher with PCI, owing to more frequent repeat revascularization and higher outpatient medication costs. Nonetheless, cumulative 5-year costs remained $3641 higher per patient with CABG. Although there were only modest gains in survival with CABG during the trial period, when the in-trial results were extended to a lifetime horizon, CABG was projected to be economically attractive relative to DES-PCI, with substantial gains in both life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios <$10000 per life-year or quality-adjusted life-year gained across a broad range of assumptions regarding the effect of CABG on post-trial survival and costs. Conclusions-Despite higher initial costs, CABG is a highly cost-effective revascularization strategy compared with DES-PCI for patients with diabetes mellitus and multivessel coronary artery disease.002B12B03002B26E002B12A03002B21E01ACardiopathie coronaire01Coronary heart disease01Cardiopatía coronaria01DiabèteNM02Diabetes mellitusNM02DiabetesNM02Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire03Cardiovascular disease03Aparato circulatorio patología03Analyse coût efficacité09Cost efficiency analysis09Análisis costo eficacia09Economie santé10Health economy10Economía salud10Angioplastie11Angioplasty11Angioplastia11Artère coronaire12Coronary artery12Arteria coronaria12Athérectomie13Atherectomy13Aterectomía13Stent à élution médicamenteuse14Drug eluting stent14Stent con liberación de fármaco14Voie percutanée15Percutaneous route15Vía percutánea15Etude comparative16Comparative study16Estudio comparativo16Anastomose chirurgicale17Surgical anastomosis17Anastomosis quirúrgica17Homme18Human18Hombre18Malade19Patient19Enfermo19Résultat20Result20Resultado20Essai clinique21Clinical trial21Ensayo clínico21Greffe22Graft22Injerto22Analyse avantage coût23Cost benefit analysis23Análisis coste beneficio23Appareil circulatoire24Circulatory system24Aparato circulatorio24Cardiologie25Cardiology25Cardiología25Traitement instrumental78Instrumentation therapy78Tratamiento instrumental78Pontage coronarienCD96Coronary artery bypassCD96Puente aorto coronarioCD96Santé publique37Public health37Salud pública37Endocrinopathie38Endocrinopathy38Endocrinopatía38Chirurgie cardiaqueINC86112OTOOTO Generalized linear models and extensionsHARDIN (J.W.)HILBE (J.W.)2012ENGStata pressTexas978-1-59718-105-13e éditionPagination mult.[477 p.]tabl., graph., indexBDSP/IRDESUg14, CODBAR 00628518800dissem.13-0135436LMUSAModèles linéaires généralisés et extensionsGeneralized linear models (GLMs) extend linear regression to models with a non-Gaussian, or even discrete, response. GLM theory is predicated on the exponential family of distributions - a class so rich that it includes the commonly used logit, probit, and Poisson models. Although one can fit these models in Stata by using specialized commands (for example, logit for logit models), fitting them as GLMs with Stata's GLM command offers some advantages. For example, model diagnostics may be calculated and interpreted similarly regardless of the assumed distribution. This text thoroughly covers GLMs, both theoretically and computationally, with an emphasis on Stata. The theory consists of showing how the various GLMs are special cases of the exponential family, showing general properties of this family of distributions, and showing the derivation of maximum likelihood (ML) estimators and standard errors. Hardin and Hilbe show how iteratively reweighted least squares, another method of parameter estimation, are a consequence of ML estimation using Fisher scoring. The authors also discuss different methods of estimating standard errors, including robust methods, robust methods with clustering, Newey-West, outer product of the gradient, bootstrap, and jackknife. The thorough coverage of model diagnostics includes measures of influence such as Cook's distance, several forms of residuals, the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, and various R2-type measures of explained variability. After presenting general theory, Hardin and Hilbe then break down each distribution. Each distribution has its own chapter that explains the computational details of applying the general theory to that particular distribution. Pseudocode plays a valuable role here, because it lets the authors describe computational algorithms relatively simply. Devoting an entire chapter to each distribution (or family, in GLM terms) also allows for the inclusion of real-data examples showing how Stata fits such models, as well as presenting certain diagnostics and analytical strategies that are unique to that family. The chapters on binary data and on count (Poisson) data are excellent in this regard. Hardin and Hilbe give ample attention to the problems of overdispersion and zero inflation in count-data models. The final part of the text concerns extensions of GLMs, which come in three forms. First, the authors cover multinomial responses, both ordered and unordered. Although multinomial responses are not strictly a part of GLM, the theory is similar in that one can think of a multinomial response as an extension of a binary response. The examples presented in these chapters often use the authors'own Stata programs, augmenting official Stata's capabilities. Second, GLMs may be extended to clustered data through generalized estimating equations (GEEs), and one chapter covers GEE theory and examples. Finally, GLMs may be extended by programming one's own family and link functions for use with Stata's official glm command, and the authors detail this process. In addition to other enhancements - for example, a new section on marginal effects - the third edition contains several new extended GLMs, giving Stata users new ways to capture the complexity of count data. New count models include a three-parameter negative binomial known as NB-P, Poisson inverse Gaussian (PIG), zero-inflated generalized Poisson (ZIGP), a rewritten generalized Poisson, two-and three-component finite mixture models, and a generalized censored Poisson and negative binomial. This edition has a new chapter on simulation and data synthesis, but also shows how to construct a wide variety of synthetic and Monte Carlo models throughout the book (4e de couverture)002B30A11StatistiqueStatisticsEstadísticaLogicielSoftwareLogicialModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoMéthodologieMethodologyMetodología112 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2276Optimal Length of Transit Network with Traffic Performance Microsimulation: Application to Barcelona, SpainTransit 2012. Volume 3ESTRADA (Miquel)ROBUSTE (Francesc)AMAT (Jordi)BADIA (Hugo)BARCELO (Jaume)Center for Innovation in Transport, BarcelonaTech, Jordi Girona 29, Nexus II, 2-A08034 BarcelonaESP1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.5 aut.9-162012ENGINIST10459B3540001825197600200000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.15 ref.13-0114025PATransportation research recordUSAThis paper examines the design of high-performance transit networks that minimize transit agency costs, the time of transit users in the system, and the travel time of car users. Surface transit services need segregated lanes to achieve a target cruising speed so that the transit network length has a significant effect on traffic performance. This effect is modeled with the macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD). The optimization proceeds in two steps. First, an analytic model defines the optimal layout of surface transit networks according to the time headway, stop spacing, line spacing, and network size variables. Then, the average travel time of the traffic network is evaluated with the MFD curve corresponding to the former transit network length. The full methodology has been implemented in the city of Barcelona, Spain. MFD was calibrated in the city's central district by means of traffic microsimulation runs. The social optimum for the number of corridors is 15, somewhat smaller than the optimization that does not consider traffic (23 corridors).001D15A001D14O01295Transport public02Public transportation02Transporte público02Réseau transport03Transportation network03Red transporte03Optimisation04Optimization04Optimización04Longueur05Length05Longitud05Minimisation coût06Cost minimization06Minimización costo06Evaluation performance07Performance evaluation07Evaluación prestación07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Application09Application09Aplicación09EspagneNG10SpainNG10EspañaNG10Conception système11System design11Concepción sistema11EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG091PSIPSI 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.13812Microsimulation Approach for Predicting Crashes at Unsignalized Intersections Using Traffic ConflictsCALIENDO (Ciro)GUIDA (Maurizio)Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of Salerno84084 Fisciano (SA)ITA1 aut.Dept. of Electronic and Computer Engineering, Univ. of Salerno84084 Fisciano (SA)ITA2 aut.1453-14672012ENGINIST572E3540005029969300500000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.13-0111299PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAA microsimulation approach is presented for assessing safety at unsignalized intersections using critical traffic conflicts computed in simulation models as a surrogate safety measure. The proposed approach was applied to a crash data set, collated over a 5-year monitoring period, corresponding to urban unsignalized intersections of the city of Salerno, Italy. Given that over 45% of accidents recorded at these intersections occurred more especially in six 1-h time periods during the day and that these hourly periods corresponded to the peak traffic volumes, it was considered worthwhile to investigate each of these 1-h concentrated time intervals. Traffic flows were computed by using video cameras placed at each intersection and expressed as peak-hour volumes in the analysis. A process of microsimulation model calibration and validation was carried out, and a good level of conformity between the traffic simulated in the peak hours and the corresponding one measured in the field was obtained. Subsequently, a form of software, which is compatible with the applied microsimulation software, was used for identifying the number of critical conflicts at the intersections investigated. For this aim, a collision was assumed to be very probable when conflicts are characterized by a time to collision (TTC) and post-encroachment time (PET) below the threshold values of 1.5 and 5 s, respectively. The relationship between critical conflicts computed in microsimulation models and actual crashes was found to be statistically significant. A crash-prediction regression model was then developed for the investigated intersections, which allows predicting crashes in the field on the basis of the critical conflicts computed in simulation. The proposed model was found to fit the accident data slightly better than the traffic volume-based regression model.001D15C001D14O05295Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Sécurité trafic03Traffic safety03Seguridad tráfico03Intersection04Intersection04Intersección04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Modèle prévision07Forecast model07Modelo previsión07Accident circulation08Traffic accident08Accidente tráfico08Feu signalisation09Traffic lights09Semáforo09Mesure sécurité10Safety measure10Medida seguridad10Conflit11Conflict11Conflicto11Analyse donnée12Data analysis12Análisis datos12Comptage13Counting13Contaje13Statistique14Statistics14Estadística14Recommandation15Recommendation15Recomendación15Intersection sans signalisationCD96Unsignalized intersectionCD96Intersección sin semáforosCD96084PSIPSI 0198-9715CEUSD5Comput., environ. urban syst.366Analysis of crime patterns through the integration of an agent-based model and a population microsimulation : Advances in GeocomputationMALLESON (Nick)BIRKIN (Mark)School of Geography, University of LeedsLeeds LS2 9JTGBR1 aut.2 aut.551-5612012ENGINIST201923540005054706700600000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.13-0098123PAComputers, environment and urban systemsGBRIn recent years, criminologists have become interested in understanding crime variations at progressively finer spatial scales, right down to individual streets or even houses. To model at these fine spatial scales, and to better account for the dynamics of the crime system, agent-based models of crime are emerging. Generally, these have been more successful in representing the behaviour of criminals than their victims. In this paper it is suggested that individual representations of criminal behaviour can be enhanced by combining them with models of the criminal environment which are specified at a similar scale. In the case of burglary this means the identification of individual households as targets. We will show how this can be achieved using the complementary technique of microsimulation. The work is significant because it allows agent-based models of crime to be refined geographically (to allow, for example, individual households with varying wealth or occupancy measures) and leads to the identification of the characteristics of individual victims.001D14A06002B18C04295Zone urbaine02Urban area02Zona urbana02Criminologie03Criminology03Criminología03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Analyse spatiale05Spatial analysis05Análisis espacial05Crime06Crime06Crimen06Vol criminel07Criminal theft07Robo07Orienté agent08Agent oriented08Orientado agente08Modèle simulation09Simulation model09Modelo simulación09Modèle microscopique10Microscopic model10Modelo microscópico10Reconstruction11Reconstruction11Reconstrucción11Population12Population12Población12Cartographie13Cartography13Cartografía13Royaume-UniNG14United KingdomNG14Reino UnidoNG14EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG070PSIPSI 0336-1454451-453Survol de Mésange : un modèle macroéconomique à l'usage du praticienLa modélisation macroéconomique : continuités, tensionsCABANNES (P.Y.)ERKEL-ROUSSE (H.)KLEIN (C.)LALANNE (G.)MONSO (O.)POULIQUEN (E.)SIMON (O.)Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques. (I.N.S.E.E.). Paris.FRA179-2162012-12FREBDSP/IRDESS18, CODBAR 0066753, 00667558800dissem.13-0095846PAECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUEFRALes modèles macroéconomiques inspirés de l'approche de la Cowles Commission connaissent une longévité remarquable dans l'administration économique. Ils y ont résisté aux critiques qui leur ont été adressées dans la littérature et ont survécu à l'apparition puis à la montée en puissance d'autres outils d'analyse macroéconomique en raison de leur utilité pour le praticien. Grâce à l'équilibre qu'ils réalisent entre degré d'ancrage à la théorie et qualité d'ajustement aux données, ces outils généralistes contribuent à éclairer un large éventail de questions se posant en milieu opérationnel. En outre, les modélisateurs y ont intégré les progrès de l'économétrie des séries temporelles et les utilisent désormais de manière combinée avec des outils d'analyse complémentaires. Développé par l'Insee et la direction générale du Trésor, Mésange est un modèle de ce type. Il comporte une quarantaine d'équations de comportement estimées économétriquement, pour un total d'environ 500 équations et trois branches modélisées (manufacturière, non manufacturière marchande et non marchande). Il existe sous deux versions, les données en volume étant calculées de deux façons différentes par les comptables nationaux trimestriels : en volumes à prix constants et à prix chaînés, ces derniers correspondant aux données publiées par l'Insee depuis 2007. Deux types d'utilisation sont exposés et illustrés. Dans le premier, l'effet de chocs sur l'économie est étudié à court, moyen et long termes. Les propriétés à long terme du modèle doivent alors être bien connues et maîtrisées. Ceci conduit à privilégier l'utilisation de la version du modèle avec volumes à prix constants. Pour le second type d'utilisation, qui s'attache à la relecture des prévisions conjoncturelles et à l'analyse du passé récent, l'adéquation aux données des comptes publiés est indispensable : on s'appuie alors sur la version du modèle avec volumes à prix chaînés (résumé d'auteur)002B30A11ModèleModelsModeloMacroéconomieMacroeconomicsMacroeconomíaThéorieTheoryTeoríaSimulationSimulationSimulaciónModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométrico070 0336-1454451-453Une comparaison des modèles macro-économétriques et DSGE dans l'évaluation des politiques économiques : une comparaison basée sur les modèles Mésange et EgéeLa modélisation macroéconomique : continuités, tensionsLAFFARGUE (J.P.)Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques. (I.N.S.E.E.). Paris.FRA45-682012-12FREBDSP/IRDESS18, CODBAR 0066753, 00667558800dissem.13-0095845PAECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUEFRALe comportement de consommation des ménages, principale différence entre ces modèles, repose dans Mésange, modèle macro-économétrique keynésien, sur une fonction d'inspiration keynésienne : la consommation y est très sensible au revenu courant des ménages. Dans Egée, modèle dynamique d'équilibre général, une majorité de ménages, qualifiés de ricardiens, optimisent leurs décisions intertemporellement : leur consommation, très sensible à leurs anticipations de l'évolution future de l'économie, dépend donc peu de leur revenu courant. Si tous les ménages étaient ricardiens, Egée n'aurait pas de multiplicateur keynésien. Les structures théoriques des longs termes des deux modèles sont très voisines, de même que les effets qualitatifs qu'ils attribuent aux politiques budgétaires. Les équations de salaire y ont des bases théoriques très différentes, représentant le résultat de négociations entre partenaires sociaux pour Mésange, une offre de travail pour Egée. En dépit de cela ces équations ont des formes analytiques voisines, mais l'élasticité du salaire à l'emploi est beaucoup plus basse dans le premier modèle que dans le second. Cela conduit à des effets des politiques budgétaires plus importants dans Mésange. Les effets de court et de moyen terme des politiques budgétaires diffèrent notablement, à quelques exceptions près, entre Mésange et Egée. Ces effets sont très sensibles aux rigidités réelles et nominales introduites dans les deux modèles et aux valeurs des paramètres qui déterminent les forces relatives de ces rigidités. Largement ad hoc et se bornant à introduire des ajustements à correction d'erreur dans des équations d'équilibre au statut théorique clair dans Mésange, elles sont théoriquement mieux fondées dans Egée, encore que leur liste et les détails de leur spécification aient des bases qui peuvent parfois sembler fragiles (résumé d'auteur)002B30A11ModèleModelsModeloMacroéconomieMacroeconomicsMacroeconomíaThéorieTheoryTeoríaSimulationSimulationSimulaciónModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométrico070 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2270Applicability of Traffic Microsimulation Models in Vehicle Emissions Estimates: Case Study of VISSIMEnvironment 2012GUOHUA SONGLEI YUYANHONG ZHANGMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Haidian DistrictBeijing 100044CHN1 aut.College of Science and Technology, Texas Southern University, 3100 Cleburne AvenueHouston, TX 77004USA2 aut.Hebei Provincial Transportation Planning and Design Institute, 70 South Jianshe StreetShijiazhuang, Hebei 050011CHN3 aut.132-1412012ENGINIST10459B3540005029186401600000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.38 ref.13-0092090PATransportation research recordUSAEfforts in estimating emissions by an integration of traffic simulation models and emissions models have become a fast-evolving research area. However, because of the lack of effective methods and indicators to characterize traffic behaviors, the accuracy of emissions by such an approach has not been effectively verified or evaluated. The current study is intended to examine the applicability of traffic microsimulation models in vehicle emissions estimates on the basis of the explanatory parameter of vehicle emissions-the vehicle-specific power (VSP) distribution. Analyzing massive real-world and simulated vehicle activity data showed that the results from traffic simulation could not represent real-world driving behaviors for emissions estimates. The simulated vehicle-specific power distribution led to errors that were as high as 82.8%, 53.6%, and 29.6% for nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons, and carbon monoxide emissions, respectively. Then a sensitivity analysis of 16 adjustments on eight parameters of simulation models was conducted to determine their effects on simulated VSP distributions: systematic errors existed in the use of traffic simulation models to represent second-by-second driving behaviors. The errors could not be reduced by parameter calibration on the simulation model. This study concluded that the traditional approach of integrating traffic simulation models with emissions models was not applicable for vehicle emissions estimates. The primary reasons for the errors need to be investigated further from the internal mechanism of submodels of microsimulation. On the basis of these findings, several recommendations are proposed for future studies.001D15C001D16C04CTrafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Impact environnement03Environment impact03Impacto medio ambiente03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Modèle simulation05Simulation model05Modelo simulación05Emission polluant06Pollutant emission06Emisión contaminante06Etude cas07Case study07Estudio caso07Méthodologie08Methodology08Metodología08Etude comparative09Comparative study09Estudio comparativo09Recommandation10Recommendation10Recomendación10063PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2270Analysis of Emissions at Congested and Uncongested Intersections with Motor Vehicle Emission Simulation 2010Environment 2012PAPSON (Andrew)HARTLEY (Seth)KUO (Kai-Ling)ICF International, 1 Ada Street, Suite 100Irvine, CA 92618USA1 aut.ICF International, 620 Folsom Street, Suite 620San Francisco, CA 94107USA2 aut.ICF International, 75 East Santa Clara Street, Suite 300San Jose, CA 95113USA3 aut.124-1312012ENGINIST10459B3540005029186401500000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.16 ref.13-0092086PATransportation research recordUSAThe motor vehicle emission simulator (MOVES) modeling software of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency enables researchers and practitioners to model vehicle emissions at the project level. With this tool, agencies can identify and evaluate the effectiveness of local traffic control strategies to reduce emissions at project hot spots, such as congested intersections. This study analyzes vehicle emissions at congested and uncongested signalized intersections under three traffic intersection scenarios, ranging from Level of Service (LOS) B to LOS E. Emissions are much less sensitive to congestion than control delay. A shift in operation from LOS E to LOS B reduced per vehicle nitrogen oxide emissions by 15% and particulate matter emissions by 17%, while control delay decreased by 40%. The largest sources of emissions were cruising and acceleration; they accounted for more than 80% of total emissions under all scenarios. Idling accounted for less than 18% of all intersection emissions. This analysis calculates emissions with a time-in-mode methodology that combines emission factors for each activity mode (i.e., acceleration, deceleration, cruise, idle) with a calculation of the total vehicle time spent in that mode. This approach demonstrates the contribution of each activity mode to intersection emissions and suggests opportunities for control strategies with the potential to affect intersection emissions. The streamlined methodology may be a helpful tool for agencies that are interested in analyzing project-level emissions and control strategies, but lack staff resources or expertise for microsimulation-based scenario analysis.001D15C001D16C04C001D14O02295Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Intersection03Intersection03Intersección03Impact environnement04Environment impact04Impacto medio ambiente04Emission polluant05Pollutant emission05Emisión contaminante05Congestion trafic06Traffic congestion06Congestión tráfico06Modélisation07Modeling07Modelización07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Méthode calcul09Computing method09Método cálculo09Analyse tendance10Trend analysis10Análisis tendencia10Accélération11Acceleration11Aceleración11Sensibilité12Sensitivity12Sensibilidad12063PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2298Evaluating Safety at Railway Level Crossings with Microsimulation ModelingTraffic Control Devices, Visibility, and Highway-Rail Grade Crossings 2012TEY (Li-Sian)KIM (Inhi)FERREIRA (Luis)Faculty of Engineering, Architecture, and Information Technology, University of Queensland, Brisbane St. LuciaQueensland 4072AUS2 aut.3 aut.Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi MARA, 40450 Shah AlamSelangorMYS1 aut.70-772012ENGINIST10459B3540005029201100800000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.34 ref.13-0091579PATransportation research recordUSASafety at railway level crossings (RLXs) is a worldwide issue that increasingly attracts the attention of relevant transport authorities, the rail industry, and the general public. The differences in the operation characteristics of varying types of warning devices, together with differences in crossing geometry, traffic, or train characteristics, leads to different driver behaviors at crossings. The aim of this study was to use traffic microsimulation modeling based on field video recording data to compare the safety performance of varying conventional RLX warning systems. The widely used microsimulation model VISSIM was modified to produce safety-related performance measures, namely, collision likelihood, delay, and queue length. The results showed that RLXs with an active warning system were safer than those with a passive sign by at least 17%. Integration of surrogate measures in conjunction with traffic simulation models determined which safety approach was more efficient for specified traffic and train volumes.001D15C001D15D001D14O05295Sécurité trafic02Traffic safety02Seguridad tráfico02Chemin de fer03Railway03Ferrocarril03Trafic ferroviaire04Rail traffic04Tráfico ferroviario04Trafic routier05Road traffic05Tráfico carretera05Passage à niveau06Grade crossing06Paso a nivel06Modélisation07Modeling07Modelización07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Analyse donnée09Data analysis09Análisis datos09Probabilité10Probability10Probabilidad10Collision11Collision11Colisión11063PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2286Estimating Right-Turn-on-Red Capacity for Dual Right-Turn Lanes at Signalized IntersectionsHighway Capacity and Quality of Service 2012XIAOMING CHENYI QIDA LIDepartment of Transportation Studies, Texas Southern University, 3100 Cleburne StreetHouston, TX 77004-9986.USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.29-382012ENGINIST10459B3540005029198900400000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.13-0091494PATransportation research recordUSADual right-turn lanes are increasingly used as a design alternative at urban intersections, primarily to accommodate high right-turn demand. For dual right-turn lanes, an accurate estimate of right-turn-on-red (RTOR) capacity can contribute to better decisions about whether RTOR should be allowed or prohibited and may lead to refined delay estimation and improved signal timing. A gap-acceptance model was formulated for predicting lane-specific RTOR capacities at dual right-turn lanes. The proposed model can represent the unequal effects of conflicting traffic streams from different cross-street lanes on RTOR capacities of dual right-turn lanes. Existing probabilistic methods were adapted to adjust RTOR capacity for shared through and right-turn lanes. Microsimulation models were developed, calibrated based on field data, and used as benchmarks to validate the proposed model. Numerical experiments indicated that the proposed model exhibits a significantly improved ability to predict RTOR capacities for dual right-turn lanes compared with the classical Harders model.001D14O02001D15C295Intersection02Intersection02Intersección02Réseau routier03Road network03Red carretera03Feu signalisation05Traffic lights05Semáforo05Méthode calcul06Computing method06Método cálculo06Virage véhicule07Vehicle turning07Viraje vehículo07Capacité08Capacity08Capacidad08Modélisation09Modeling09Modelización09Analyse site10Site analysis10Análisis emplazamiento10Modèle simulation11Simulation model11Modelo simulación11Etude comparative12Comparative study12Estudio comparativo12Trafic routier13Road traffic13Tráfico carretera13063PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2272Performance Evaluation for Rural Two-Plus-One-Lane Highway in a Cold, Snowy RegionMaintenance Services and Surface Weather 2012MUNEHIRO (Kazunori)TAKEMOTO (Azuma)TAKAHASHI (Naoto)WATANABE (Masayoshi)ASANO (Motoki)Traffic Engineering Research Team, Civil Engineering Research Institute for Cold Region, Public Works Research InstituteSapporoJPN1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.Cold Region Road Engineering Research Group, Civil Engineering Research Institute for Cold Region, Public Works Research InstituteSapporoJPN5 aut.161-1722012ENGINIST10459B3540005029188001900000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.17 ref.13-0091023PATransportation research recordUSAHokkaido, Japan, is a cold, snowy island where winter lasts for approximately 5 months, from November to March. Road surfaces are usually dry, but frequently covered with compacted snow. A measure to improve existing two-lane highways to two-plus-one (2+ 1) lane highways by installing an auxiliary lane has been introduced to offer a better quality of service to road users. A sensitivity analysis was undertaken with a traffic flow microsimulation program, SIM-R, to evaluate the effectiveness of 2+1-lane highway sections, which were built by adding an auxiliary lane to rural two-lane highways, in a cold, snowy region. The road surface conditions under analysis were dry and covered with compacted snow. The hourly traffic volumes were changed from 100 to 1,000 vehicles per hour. Evaluation indicators were the average travel speed, the percentage of following vehicles, and the density of following vehicles. The results showed that the average travel speed decreased, the follower percentage increased, and the follower density increased as the hourly traffic volumes increased. Moreover, the road performance decreased on the road covered with compacted snow compared with the dry road. The installation of an auxiliary lane at certain intervals was also found to improve the level of service for two-lane highways on both the dry road and the road with compacted snow.001D14O05001D15C295Réseau routier02Road network02Red carretera02Climat froid03Cold climate03Clima frío03JaponNG04JapanNG04JapónNG04Evaluation performance05Performance evaluation05Evaluación prestación05Indicateur06Indicator06Indicador06Service07Service07Servicio07Trafic routier08Road traffic08Tráfico carretera08Modélisation09Modeling09Modelización09Modèle simulation10Simulation model10Modelo simulación10Analyse sensibilité11Sensitivity analysis11Análisis sensibilidad11Neige12Snow12Nieve12Compactage13Compaction13Compactación13AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG063PSIPSI 0003-4819AIMEASAnn. intern. med.1583Comparative Effectiveness of Alternative Prostate-Specific Antigen-Based Prostate Cancer Screening Strategies: Model Estimates of Potential Benefits and HarmsGULATI (Roman)GORE (John L.)ETZIONI (Ruth)Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and University of WashingtonSeattle, WashingtonUSA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.145-1532013ENGINIST20143540005063619100100000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.35 ref.13-0088293PAAnnals of internal medicineUSABackground: The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recently concluded that the harms of existing prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening strategies outweigh the benefits. Objective: To evaluate comparative effectiveness of alternative PSA screening strategies. Design: Microsimulation model of prostate cancer incidence and mortality quantifying harms and lives saved for alternative PSA screening strategies. Data Sources: National and trial data on PSA growth, screening and biopsy patterns, incidence, treatment distributions, treatment efficacy, and mortality. Target Population: A contemporary cohort of U.S. men. Time Horizon: Lifetime. Perspective: Societal. Intervention: 35 screening strategies that vary by start and stop ages, screening intervals, and thresholds for biopsy referral. Outcome Measures: PSA tests, false-positive test results, cancer detected, overdiagnoses, prostate cancer deaths, lives saved, and months of life saved. Results of Base-Case Analysis: Without screening, the risk for prostate cancer death is 2.86%. A reference strategy that screens men aged 50 to 74 years annually with a PSA threshold for biopsy referral of 4 &mgr;g/L reduces the risk for prostate cancer death to 2.15%, with risk for overdiagnosis of 3.3%. A strategy that uses higher PSA thresholds for biopsy referral in older men achieves a similar risk for prostate cancer death (2.23%) but reduces the risk for overdiagnosis to 2.3%. A strategy that screens biennially with longer screening intervals for men with low PSA levels achieves similar risks for prostate cancer death (2.27%) and overdiagnosis (2.4%), but reduces total tests by 59% and false-positive results by 50%. Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Varying incidence inputs or reducing the survival improvement due to screening did not change conclusions. Limitation: The model is a simplification of the natural history of prostate cancer, and improvement in survival due to screening is uncertain. Conclusion: Compared with standard screening, PSA screening strategies that use higher thresholds for biopsy referral for older men and that screen men with low PSA levels less frequently can reduce harms while preserving lives. Primary Funding Source: National Cancer Institute and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.002B01002B14D02002B20B02Cancer de la prostateNM01Prostate cancerNM01Cáncer de la próstataNM01Etude comparative02Comparative study02Estudio comparativo02Efficacité03Efficiency03Eficacia03Antigène spécifique prostate05Prostate specific antigen05Antigeno específico prostata05Marqueur tumoral06Tumoral marker06Marcador tumoral06Prostate08Prostate08Prostata08Dépistage09Medical screening09Descubrimiento09Stratégie11Strategy11Estrategia11Modèle12Models12Modelo12Estimation17Estimation17Estimación17Danger18Danger18Peligro18Médecine19Medicine19Medicina19Appareil urogénital37Urogenital system37Aparato urogenital37Pathologie de l'appareil génital mâle38Male genital diseases38Aparato genital macho patología38Pathologie de l'appareil urinaire39Urinary system disease39Aparato urinario patología39Tumeur maligneNM40Malignant tumorNM40Tumor malignoNM40CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie de la prostate41Prostate disease41Prostata patología41056OTOOTO 0336-1454450-2011Un outil pour l'étude des dépenses de santé et des &dquot;restes à charge&dquot; des ménages : le modèle OmarLARDELLIER (R.)LEGAL (R.)RAYNAUD (D.)VIDAL (G.)Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques. (I.N.S.E.E.). Paris.FRA47-772012-11FREBDSP/IRDESS18, CODBAR 0066661, 00666608800dissem.13-0063029PAECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUEFRALes &dquot;restes à charge&dquot; des ménages correspondent à la part de leurs dépenses de santé qui n'est couverte ni par l'assurance obligatoire de base ni par la couverture complémentaire. Leur connaissance est indispensable au pilotage du système d'assurance maladie. Au niveau macroéconomique, ils sont suivis grâce aux Comptes de la santé. Mais on s'attend à ce que leur poids soit très variable d'un individu à l'autre. Or il n'y a pas de source individuelle qui permette leur observation directe à niveau fin. Cet article présente une démarche qui vise à combler cette lacune, celle du modèle Omar (Outil de Microsimulation pour l'Analyse des Restes à charge). Ce modèle reconstitue le partage de la dépense individuelle entre les trois financeurs : la Sécurité sociale, l'organisme complémentaire et l'individu. Il le fait en s'appuyant sur deux sources. La première est la source Epas-SPS qui apparie l'enquête Santé et Protection Sociale de l'Irdes et des données administratives de la Caisse nationale d'assurance maladie. La seconde est une enquête de la Drees auprès des organismes de couverture complémentaire. Cette dernière permet d'identifier les principales caractéristiques des contrats qu'ils offrent à leurs affiliés. Les informations de ces deux sources sont combinées et complétées par diverses techniques d'imputation002B30A11DépenseExpenditureGastoSantéHealthSaludFinancementFinancingFinanciaciónSoinCareCuidadoNiveau vieStandard of livingAspect économiqueEconomic aspectAspecto económicoEvaluationEvaluationEvaluaciónModèleModelsModeloMéthodeMethodMétodoFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG042 1016-8664Struct. eng. int.223Calibration of a Congestion Load Model for Highway Bridges Using Traffic MicrosimulationCAPRANI (Colin C.)Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Dublin Institute of TechnologyDublinIRL1 aut.342-3482012ENGINIST13726B3540005066726100700000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.31 ref.13-0061322PAStructural engineering internationalCHEFor short- to medium-length bridges, the governing traffic loading scenario may be that of congested traffic. This paper presents the calibration of a congested traffic load model using traffic microsimulation. A range of bridge lengths, forms of construction, and load effects is considered. Different driving parameters and traffic composition are also considered. The influence of these parameters on the resulting load effect is determined. For each of these scenarios, a calibrated gap between trucks is determined to replicate the traffic microsimulation results. This calibrated gap can then be used as part of a simpler congestion model, suitable for bridge assessment. Such simpler models can be used to simulate much longer periods than are possible using traffic microsimulation. It is found that the calibrated gaps are either similar to, or are larger than, previous work in the area. Consequently, this approach helps to remove some conservatism from congested traffic load effect estimation, and this may find valuable application in the assessment of existing bridge structures.001D14M01001D15C001D14C03295Pont route02Road bridge02Puente carretera02Congestion trafic03Traffic congestion03Congestión tráfico03Trafic routier04Road traffic04Tráfico carretera04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Charge trafic07Traffic load07Carga tráfico07Etalonnage08Calibration08Contraste08Analyse statistique09Statistical analysis09Análisis estadístico09035PSIPSI 0965-8564Transp. res., Part A Policy pract.468Activity planning processes in the Agent-based Dynamic Activity Planning and Travel Scheduling (ADAPTS) modelAULD (Joshua)MOHAMMADIAN (Abolfazl(kouros))Dept. of Civil & Materials Engineering, University of Illinois at Chicago, 842 West Taylor StreetChicago, IL 60607-7023USA1 aut.2 aut.1386-14032012ENGINIST12377A3540005066795601900000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.13-0060426PATransportation research. Part A, Policy and practiceGBRThis paper describes the representation of the activity planning process utilized in a new activity-based microsimulation model called the ADAPTS (Agent-based Dynamic Activity Planning and Travel Scheduling) model, which dynamically simulates activity and travel planning and scheduling. The model utilizes a dynamic activity planning framework within the larger overall microsimulation system, which is a computational process model that attempts to replicate the decisions which comprise time-dependent activity scheduling. The model presents a step forward in which the usual concepts of activity generation and activity scheduling are significantly enhanced by adding an additional component referred to as activity planning in which the various attributes which describe the activity are determined. The model framework, therefore, separates activity planning from activity generation and treats all three components, generation, planning and scheduling, as separate discrete but dynamic events within the overall microsimulation. The development of the planning order model, which determines when and in what order each activity planning decision is made is the specific focus of this paper. The models comprising the planning order framework are developed using recent survey data from a GPS-based prompted recall survey. The model development, estimation, validation, and its use within the overall ADAPTS system are discussed. A significant finding of the study is the verification of the apparent transferability of the activity planning order model.001D15B001D15ATransports02Transportation02Transportes02Ordonnancement03Scheduling03Reglamento03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Planification05Planning05Planificación05Activité06Activity06Actividad06Modèle comportement07Behavior model07Modelo comportamiento07Modèle probit08Probit model08Modelo probit08Flexibilité09Flexibility09Flexibilidad09Enquête10Survey10Encuesta10Orienté agent11Agent oriented11Orientado agente11Validation12Validation12Validación12035PSIPSI 0749-8063ARTHE3Arthroscopy : (Print)2812Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Primary Arthroscopic Stabilization Versus Nonoperative Treatment for First-Time Anterior Glenohumeral DislocationsCRALL (Timothy S.)BISHOP (Julius A.)GUTTMAN (Dan)KOCHER (Mininder)BOZIC (Kevin)LUBOWITZ (James H.)Sierra Park Orthopaedics and Sports Medicine, Mammoth HospitalMammoth Lakes, CaliforniaUSA1 aut.Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Stanford UniversityRedwood City, CaliforniaUSA2 aut.Taos Orthopaedic Institute, TaosNew MexicoUSA3 aut.6 aut.Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Children's Hospital BostonBoston, MassachusettsUSA4 aut.Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, University of California, San FranciscoSan Francisco, CaliforniaUSA5 aut.Mission Bay Ortho InstituteSan Francisco, CaliforniaUSA5 aut.1755-17652012ENGINIST206043540005054863600400000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.41 ref.13-0038726PAArthroscopy : (Print)USAPurpose: The purpose of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of initial observation versus surgery for first-time anterior shoulder dislocation. Methods: The clinical scenario of first-time anterior glenohumeral dislocation was simulated using a Markov model (where variables change over time depending on previous states). Nonoperative outcomes include success (no recurrence) and recurrence; surgical outcomes include success, recurrence, and complications of infection or stiffness. Probabilities for outcomes were determined from published literature. Costs were tabulated from Medicare Current Procedural Terminology data, as well as hospital and office billing records. We performed microsimulation and probabilistic sensitivity analysis running 6 models for 1,000 patients over a period of 15 years. The 6 models tested were male versus female patients aged 15 years versus 25 years versus 35 years. Results: Primary surgery was less costly and more effective for 15-year-old boys, 15-year-old girls, and 25-year-old men. For the remaining scenarios (25-year-old women and 35-year-old men and women), primary surgery was also more effective but was more costly. However, for these scenarios, primary surgery was still very cost-effective (cost per quality-adjusted life-year, <$25,000). After 1 recurrence, surgery was less costly and more effective for all scenarios. Conclusions: Primary arthroscopic stabilization is a clinically effective and cost-effective treatment for first-time anterior shoulder dislocations in the cohorts studied. By use of a willingness-to-pay threshold of $25,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, surgery was more cost-effective than nonoperative treatment for the majority of patients studied in the model.002B24E05002B25IArthroscopie04Arthroscopy04Artroscopia04Analyse coût07Cost analysis07Análisis costo07Stabilisation08Stabilization08Estabilización08Etude comparative09Comparative study09Estudio comparativo09Traitement13Treatment13Tratamiento13Articulation glénohumérale14Glenohumeral joint14Articulación glenohumeral14Epaule15Shoulder15Hombro15Chirurgie orthopédique30Orthopedic surgery30Cirugía ortopédica30Pathologie du système ostéoarticulaire31Diseases of the osteoarticular system31Sistema osteoarticular patología31Endoscopie37Endoscopy37Endoscopía37021OTOOTO 0965-8564Transp. res., Part A Policy pract.467Towards integrated land use and transportation: A dynamic disequilibrium based microsimulation framework for built space marketsFAROOQ (Bilal)MILLER (Eric J.)Transport and Mobility Laboratory, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, GCA3 339, Station 181015, Lausanne, VaudCHE1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, Cities Centre, University of Toronto, 455 Spadina AvenueToronto, Ontario, M5S 2G8CAN2 aut.1030-10532012ENGINIST12377A3540005052473600500000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/413-0037742PATransportation research. Part A, Policy and practiceGBRInvestigating the factors and processes that influence the spatiotemporal distribution of built space and population in an urban area, plays an extremely important role in our greater understanding of the urban travel behaviour. Existing location of activity centres, especially home and work, strongly influences the short-term individual-level decisions such as mode of transportation, and long-term household-level decisions such as change in job and residential location. Conditions in the built space market also affect households' and firms' location and relocation decisions, and hence influence the general travel patterns in an urban area. In this context, this paper addresses a very important, but at the same time, not very widely investigated dimension that plays a key role in the evolution of built space and population distribution: Market. A disequilibrium based microsimulation modelling framework is developed for the built space markets. This framework is then used to operationalize the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area's owner-occupied housing market within Integrated Land Use Transportation and Environment (ILUTE) modelling system. Simulation results captured heterogeneity in the transaction prices, due to type of dwellings and different market conditions, in a very disaggregate fashion. The proposed methodology is validated by running the simulation from 1986 to 2006 and comparing the results with the historic data.001D15A001D14A06001D14B295Transports02Transportation02Transportes02Occupation sol03Land use03Ocupación terreno03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Modèle simulation05Simulation model05Modelo simulación05Modèle microscopique06Microscopic model06Modelo microscópico06Modèle dynamique07Dynamic model07Modelo dinámico07Etude marché08Market survey08Estudio mercado08Milieu construit09Built environment09Medio construido09Formulation10Formulation10Formulación10Etude théorique11Theoretical study11Estudio teórico11Modèle mathématique12Mathematical model12Modelo matemático12Application13Application13Aplicación13Logement habitation14Housing14Habitación14Simulation15Simulation15Simulación15021PSIPSI 0197-6729JATRDCJ. adv. transp.464Comparison of static vehicle flow assignment methods and microsimulations for a personal rapid transit networkAdvances in Transportation AnalysisSCHWEIZER (Joerg)DANESI (Antonio)RUPI (Federico)TRAVERSI (Emiliano)BIELLII (Maurizio)ed.ORCO (Mauro Dell')ed.SMITH (Michael J.)ed.ZAK (Jacek)ed.Department of Civil, Environmental and Materials Engineering (DICAM), University of BolognaBolognaITA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.Technische Universität Dortmund, Fakultät für MathematikDEU4 aut.340-3502012ENGINIST150093540005068047000300000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.8 ref.13-0034265PAJournal of advanced transportationUSAThis article describes a static assignment method for a class of emerging public transport systems called personal rapid transit (PRT). PRT is a fully automated public transportation system where small-size vehicles run on exclusive guideways. Because of its automated, on-demand service, PRT must be able to automatically reroute empty vehicles after use to supply stations with waiting passengers. Consequently, any PRT traffic assignment must take into account the flow of empty vehicles as well as the flow of vehicles with passengers. The PRT assignment methods described in this work are based on linear programming models. One of the assignment methods has been applied to a realistic PRT network, and the statically assigned flows have been compared with averaged link flows produced by a PRT microsimulation. It is shown that the proposed static assignment method is not only useful to identify capacity bottlenecks of the planned PRT network but also serves to benchmark the microsimulator's vehicle management algorithms.001D15D001D15BTransport voyageur02Passenger transportation02Transporte pasajero02Transport public03Public transportation03Transporte público03Véhicule guidé04Guided vehicle04Vehículo guiado04Etude comparative05Comparative study05Estudio comparativo05Ecoulement trafic06Traffic flow06Flujo tráfico06Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Modèle microscopique08Microscopic model08Modelo microscópico08Acheminement09Forwarding09Encaminamiento09Affectation trafic10Traffic assignment10Afectación tráfico10Congestion trafic11Traffic congestion11Congestión tráfico11Simulateur12Simulator12Simulador12Simulation numérique13Numerical simulation13Simulación numérica13Exemple14Example14Ejemplo14ItalieNG15ItalyNG15ItaliaNG15Transport en commun individuelCD96Personal rapid transitCD96Véhicule videCD97Empty vehicleCD97EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG021PSIPSI 0030-364XOPREAIOper. res.605OR Forum-A POMDP Approach to Personalize Mammography Screening Decisions : A POMDP Approach to Personalize Mammography Screening DecisionsAYER (Turgay)ALAGOZ (Oguzhan)STOUT (Natasha K.)H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of TechnologyAtlanta, Georgia 30332USA1 aut.Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin, MadisonMadison, Wisconsin 53706USA2 aut.Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School/Harvard Pilgrim Health Care InstituteBoston, Massachusetts 02115USA3 aut.1019-10342012ENGINIST71503540005029247400100000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/413-0033237PAOperations researchUSABreast cancer is the most common nonskin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer death in U.S. women. Although mammography is the most effective modality for breast cancer screening, it has several potential risks, including high false-positive rates. Therefore, the balance of benefits and risks, which depend on personal characteristics, is critical in designing a mammography screening schedule. In contrast to prior research and existing guidelines that consider population-based screening recommendations, we propose a personalized mammography screening policy based on the prior screening history and personal risk characteristics of women. We formulate a finite-horizon, partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) model for this problem. Our POMDP model incorporates two methods of detection (self or screen), age-specific unobservable disease progression, and age-specific mammography test characteristics. We solve this POMDP optimally after setting transition probabilities to values estimated from a validated microsimulation model. Additional published data is used to specify other model inputs such as sensitivity and specificity of test results. Our results show that our proposed personalized screening schedules outperform the existing guidelines with respect to the total expected quality-adjusted life years, while significantly decreasing the number of mammograms and false-positives. We also report the lifetime risk of developing undetected invasive cancer associated with each screening scenario.001A02H01J001D01A08002B28C001D01A14Décision Markov06Markov decision06Decisión Markov06Observabilité partielle07Partial observability07Observabilidad parcial07Criblage08Screening08Cernido08Dépistage09Medical screening09Descubrimiento09Femme10Woman10Mujer10Risque élevé11High risk11Riesgo alto11Recommandation12Recommendation12Recomendación12Histoire13History13Historia13Horizon fini14Finite horizon14Horizonte finito14Age15Age15Edad15Diagnostic16Diagnosis16Diagnóstico16Probabilité transition17Transition probability17Probabilidad transición17Spécificité18Specificity18Especificidad18Qualité totale19Total quality19Calidad total19Gestion entreprise20Firm management20Administración empresa20Durabilité21Durability21Durabilidad21Durée vie22Lifetime22Tiempo vida22Modélisation23Modeling23Modelización23Scénario24Script24Argumento24Classification25Classification25Clasificación25Programmation dynamique26Dynamic programming26Programación dinámica26Analyse décision27Decision analysis27Análisis decisión27Prise de décision28Decision making28Toma decision28Tumeur maligneNM41Malignant tumorNM41Tumor malignoNM41HommeHumanHombreCancerNMCancerNMCáncerNM021OTOOTO 0308-1060TPLTAKTransp. plann. technol. : (Print)358Computing the cost of traffic congestion: a microsimulation exercise of the City of Antofagasta, ChileGARRIDO (Nicolas)Department of Economics, Universidad Católica del Norte, Avda Angamos 0610AntofagastaCHL1 aut.Núcleo Iniciativa Milenio Políticas Públicas y Ciencia Regional, Avda Angamos 0610AntofagastaCHL1 aut.752-7682012ENGINIST156323540005054804000200000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.13-0032895PATransportation planning and technology : (Print)GBRThis paper computes the cost of traffic congestion in the city of Antofagasta in Chile. A microsimulation is implemented where all the agents of the system travel across the transport network. The congestion cost is computed through the aggregation of the opportunity cost of people waiting within the transport system, as a consequence of traffic congestion. Monte Carlo experiments produced an approximated congestion cost of US$1.02 million during a typical working day. Moreover, the simulation provides useful information about the average traveling time for the 14 districts of the city.001D15C001D15BGestion trafic02Traffic management02Gestión tráfico02Trafic routier urbain03Urban road traffic03Tráfico vial urbano03Congestion trafic04Traffic congestion04Congestión tráfico04ChiliNG05ChileNG05ChileNG05Analyse coût06Cost analysis06Análisis costo06Modélisation07Modeling07Modelización07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Modèle microscopique09Microscopic model09Modelo microscópico09Modèle comportement10Behavior model10Modelo comportamiento10Transport public11Public transportation11Transporte público11Amérique du SudNGSouth AmericaNGAmerica del surNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG021PSIPSI 0198-9715CEUSD5Comput., environ. urban syst.364A review of current methods to generate synthetic spatial microdata using reweighting and future directionsHERMES (Kerstin)POULSEN (Michael)Department of Environment and Geography, Faculty of Science, Macquarie UniversityNSW 2109AUS1 aut.2 aut.281-2902012ENGINIST201923540005052071800100000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/413-0032635PAComputers, environment and urban systemsGBRSynthetic spatial microdata enable analyses of artificial populations in the form of individual unit record files at a small area level. They allow analyses of estimates of variables that are otherwise not available at this small area level, while preserving the confidentiality of personal data. This type of data has mainly been used to provide more detailed census data and for spatial microsimulation modelling: for example to analyse social policy and population changes, transportation, marketing strategies or health outcomes. We argue that many potential applications for synthetic spatial microdata remain to be developed. One reason for this is the lack of information about and confidence in this type of data. Introductory literature about creating synthetic spatial microdata and discussions on the decisions that need to be taken during the data generation process are rare. In this paper, we therefore review currently existing methods to generate synthetic spatial microdata in a manner which will support most readers who are considering this approach, and we address the main issues of the data generation process with regards to analyses of neighbourhood level data. We discuss further possible applications of these data and the importance of synthetic spatial microdata.001D14C03001D14A06295Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Modèle microscopique03Microscopic model03Modelo microscópico03Analyse donnée04Data analysis04Análisis datos04Analyse spatiale05Spatial analysis05Análisis espacial05Quartier voisinage06Residential neighborhoods06Barrio vecindad06Etude comparative07Comparative study07Estudio comparativo07021PSIPSI 0198-9715CEUSD5Comput., environ. urban syst.362A microsimulation model of urban energy use: Modelling residential space heating demand in ILUTECHINGCUANCO (Franco)MILLER (Eric J.)Division of Engineering Science, University of Toronto, 35 St. George StreetToronto, ON M5S 1A4CAN1 aut.Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 455 Spadina Avenue, Suite 400Toronto, ON M5S 2G8CAN2 aut.186-1942012ENGINIST201923540005092699800800000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.13-0016083PAComputers, environment and urban systemsGBRRapid urbanization, climate change and energy security warrant a more detailed understanding of how cities today consume energy. Agent-based, integrated microsimulation models of urban systems provide an excellent platform to accomplish this task, as they can capture both the short- and long-term decisions of firms and households which directly affect urban energy consumption. This paper presents the current effort towards developing an urban energy model for the Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment (ILUTE) modelling system. As a first step, a model for the residential space heating system evolution of the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area was developed. A bottom-up approach, where individual uses are aggregated, was then employed to estimate the region's space heating demand. Conventional bottom-up methodologies often suffer from insensitivity to either technological or behavioral factors. It is argued that coupling a discrete choice model with building energy simulation software solves this problem. A joint logit model of heating fuel and equipment choice was developed and estimated using Toronto household microdata. The HOT2000 software was then used to compute individual dwelling unit space heating use. The entire residential energy analysis was performed in tandem with the housing market and demographic evolution processes. This allows the endogenous formation of the required inputs as well as adherence to the core ILUTE framework of integrated modelling. This residential space heating model is a first step towards a comprehensive urban energy end-use model. Further steps include developing similar models for other residential end-uses, such electricity and hot water consumption, as well as extensions to the commercial and transportation sectors. The entire effort aims to introduce an alternate methodology to modelling urban energy consumption that takes advantage of agent-based microsimulation to enhance and address issues with current approaches.001D14A06001D14C03295Zone urbaine02Urban area02Zona urbana02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Analyse énergétique04Energy analysis04Análisis energético04Zone résidentielle05Residential zone05Zona residencial05Orienté agent06Agent oriented06Orientado agente06Intégration07Integration07Integración07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Urbanisation09Urbanization09Urbanización09Occupation sol10Land use10Ocupación terreno10Environnement11Environment11Medio ambiente11Transports12Transportation12Transportes12Chauffage13Heating13Calefacción13Demande14Demand14Petición14Analyse donnée15Data analysis15Análisis datos15007PSIPSI 34Dépenses de santé et restes à charge des ménages : le modèle de microsimulation OmarLARDELLIER (Pascal)LEGAL (Renaud)RAYNAUD (Denis)VIDAL (Guillaume)2012-08FRE63 p.BDSP/MIN-SANTEBIB00062413880013-0001197PMSERIE SOURCES ET METHODES - DOCUMENT DE TRAVAIL - DREESFRALa Drees a construit un Outil de microsimulation pour l'Analyse des restes à charge (Omar). Celui-ci permet de simuler au niveau individuel le partage de la dépense entre les trois financeurs : la Sécurité sociale, l'organisme complémentaire et l'individu. En outre, Omar a désormais été rapproché de l'outil Ines, rendant ainsi possible des études plus larges de la redistribution. Cet article, de nature méthodologique, présente les différentes étapes de construction d'Omar. En fin d'article, une étude de la sensibilité des valeurs simulées à la méthode d'imputation des contrats offre un aperçu des possibilités offertes par ce nouvel outil002B30A11DépenseExpenditureGastoSantéHealthSaludMéthodologieMethodologyMetodología007 Projections du coût de l'APA et des caractéristiques de ses bénéficiaires à l'horizon 2040 à l'aide du modèle DestinieMARBOT (C.)Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques. (I.N.S.E.). E Direction des Etudes et Synthèses Economiques. Paris.FRA2012-01FREInseeParis58 p.tabl., fig.RPBDSP/IRDES880013-0001112RMFRAConfrontés au vieillissement de leur population, les pays développés font face au défi de fournir une aide à un nombre croissant de personnes âgées dépendantes. Il est donc crucial de connaître le nombre de personnes qui seront concernées et, étant donnés les systèmes de retraite et de protection sociale, combien leur prise en charge coûtera. Le modèle de microsimulation des retraites'Destinie'a été étendu en 2011 de façon à rendre possibles des projections dans le cadre de la réforme de la dépendance. Pour cet exercice, la microsimulation présente l'avantage de simuler des trajectoires au niveau individuel, ce qui permet de projeter un agrégat en tenant compte de l'évolution dans le temps de la distribution des caractéristiques individuelles. Elle rend également possible la prise en compte de barèmes complexes (non linéaires) qui demandent un calcul au niveau individuel. Ce document présente la méthode de mise en oeuvre d'un &dquot;module dépendance&dquot; dans le modèle Destinie et ses résultats. Une première série de résultats concerne la caractérisation de la population des dépendants et la présence d'aidants. Dans un deuxième temps, différentes variantes portant sur les tendances démographiques et économiques ont été considérées pour estimer une partie du besoin futur de financement de la dépendance, celle liée à l'APA. Il représenterait entre 0,54% et 0,71% du PIB à l'horizon 2040, selon le degré d'optimisme du scénario002B30A11Personne âgéeElderlyAncianoAutonomieAutonomyAutonomíaDépendanceDependenceDependenciaFinancementFinancingFinanciaciónPIBGross domestic productPIBLogement habitationHousingHabitaciónStructure socialeSocial structureEstructura socialModèleModelsModeloProjection perspectivePerspective projectionProyección perspectivaMéthodologieMethodologyMetodologíaFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGHommeHumanHombreEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG007 1167-468763Le système de retraite italien compense-t-il les inégalités hommes-femmes sur le marché du travail ?Les trajectoires professionnelles et la retraite des femmesLEOMBRUNI (R.)MOSCA (M.)139-163tabl., graph.2012-08FREBDSP/FNG27049, FNCOLL8800dissem.13-0000883PARETRAITE ET SOCIETEFRAEn Italie, on recense actuellement de grandes disparités hommes-femmes en matière professionnelle, en particulier pour ce qui est des salaires et des taux d'activité. Le présent article examine la situation en considérant les revenus sur le cycle de vie, en récapitulant d'une part, toutes les disparités de carrière et en examinant d'autre part, si la redistribution établie par le système de retraite peut atténuer les différences. En exploitant une base de données originale portant sur l'ensemble des carrières professionnelles, les auteurs expliquent comment l'écart de salaire se creuse constamment avec l'âge et comment les femmes tendent à cumuler un nombre d'années d'activité ouvrant droit à la retraite. Ces deux facteurs ont un effet sur le calcul des pensions, si bien qu'au moment du départ en retraite, les écarts entre les sexes sont encore plus marqués. Un modèle de microsimulation est utilisé pour montrer que le système de retraite compense partiellement la situation du marché du travail, en atténuant les différences de revenus sur le cycle de vie. Cependant, en raison de la transition actuelle vers un système actuariellement neutre, cet effet disparaîtra, ce qui soulève des interrogations sur l'évolution future des disparités de revenus entre hommes et femmes. (R.A.)002B30A11Donnée statistiqueStatistical dataDato estadísticoEmploiEmploymentEmpleoFemmeWomanMujerRetraiteRetirementJubilaciónMarché travailLabour marketMercado trabajoSalaireWageSalarioItalieNGItalyNGItaliaNGRevenu individuelPersonal incomeRenta personalModèleModelsModeloEvolutionEvolutionEvoluciónHommeHumanHombreEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG007 1058-0476J. fam. econ. issues341The Impact of Tax-Benefit Reforms on Labor Supply in a Simulated Nash-bargaining FrameworkBARGAIN (Olivier)MOREAU (Nicolas)Aix-Marseille School of Economics (AMSE), DEFI, Château Lafarge, Route des Milles13290 Les Mille, Aix-en-ProvenceFRA1 aut.Centre d'Economie et de Management de l'Océan Indien (CEMOI), Université de la Reunion, BP 715197715 Saint-Denis MessFRA2 aut.77-862013ENGINIST266633540005065191900700000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.13-0324953PAJournal of family and economic issuesDEUSeveral theoretical contributions have suggested to model household behavior as a Nash-bargaining game. Yet very few attempts have been made to operationalize cooperative models of labor supply for policy analysis. In this paper, we implement a Nash-bargaining model with external threat points (divorce) into the microsimulation of tax-benefit policy reforms in France. The observation of divorced individuals is used to predict outside options and (some) of the preferences for individuals living in couples. Benchmark simulations are conducted in a way that guarantees consistency with the Nash bargaining setting, regularity conditions and observed behavior. We examine how the labor supply of couples adjusts to shocks on threat points, either hypothetical or generated by a radical tax-benefit reform.52146XII521Comportement économique01Economic behavior01Impôt02Tax02FranceNG03FranceNG03Divorce04Divorce04Simulation05Simulation05Réforme06Reform06308 0336-1454Econ. stat : (Ed. fr.)455-56Réformer le système de remboursement pour les soins de ville, une analyse par microsimulationGEOFFARD (Pierre-Yves)DE LAGASNERIE (Grégoire)Paris School of Economics (CNRS), EHESS, 48 bd Jourdan75014, ParisFRA1 aut.Paris School of Economics (PSE), EHESS, 48 bd Jourdan75014, ParisFRA2 aut.89-113, 207, 210, 213 [28 p.]2012FREenggerspaINIST242283540005037901600500000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/413-0194507PAEconomie et statistique : (Ed. française)FRAReforming the Primary-Care Reimbursement System: A Microsimulation-Based AnalysisLes évolutions du système de remboursement des dépenses de soins par l'assurance publique ont progressivement diminué la couverture publique du risque maladie. Ce système laisse à la charge des assurés des sommes qui peuvent s'avérer importantes lorsque ceux-ci traversent des épisodes de maladie longs et coûteux, et parfois même lorsqu'ils bénéficient d'exonérations au titre d'une affection de longue durée. L'assurance complémentaire est de fait devenue nécessaire. Cependant, 7 % de la population ne jouit pas d'une telle assurance. Cet article étudie une réforme possible de l'assurance maladie obligatoire qui prend la forme d'un plafond annuel de la participation financière en soins de ville. Un tel plafond serait financé par l'instauration de franchises annuelles. Nous évaluons cette réforme à partir de micro-simulations appliquées aux données de l'enquête santé-soins médicaux 2003, appariée avec les données de remboursement du SNII-RAM. La grande taille de l'échantillon permet de simuler finement les participations financières aux dépenses de soins sous divers scénarios. Les résultats des simulations permettent alors de juger les différentes réformes du système de remboursement des dépenses de soins du point de vue de l'équité, de la couverture du risque financier, ainsi que de la faisabilité politique. Le plafond permet notamment une réelle amélioration de la prise en charge des patients ayant des dépenses importantes. Leur risque maladie et le risque de devoir payer une lourde participation financière sont en effet mieux couverts. Parallèlement, le système de remboursement devient plus équitable lorsque le plafond est fixé en proportion du revenu.52164XVI52163XV521Système de santé01Health system01Assurance maladie02Health insurance02Seguro de enfermedad02Risque03Hazard03Maladie04Illness04Régime complémentaire05Complementary Health Care System05Soin médical06Health Care06Remboursement07Repayment07Dépense08Expenditures08Revenu09Income09175 0336-1454Econ. stat : (Ed. fr.)450Un outil pour l'étude des dépenses de santé et des « restes à charge » des ménages: le modèle OmarLARDELLIER (Rémi)LEGAL (Renaud)RAYNAUD (Denis)VIDAL (Guillaume)Dépenses de santé et Relations avec l'Assurance Maladie (BDSRAM) de la Direction de la Recherche des Études, de l'Évaluation et des Statistiques (Drees) du Ministère de la Santé et des Sports.FRA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.47-77, 107-114 [39 p.]2011FREengspagerINIST242283540005054679600300000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/413-0105291PAEconomie et statistique : (Ed. française)FRAA Tool for the Study of Total Household Health Expenditures and Out-of-Pocket Expenditures: The OMAR modelLes « restes à charge » des ménages correspondent à la part de leurs dépenses de santé qui n'est couverte ni par l'assurance obligatoire de base ni par la couverture complémentaire. Leur connaissance est indispensable au pilotage du système d'assurance maladie. Au niveau macroéconomique, ils sont suivis grâce aux comptes de la santé. Mais on s'attend à ce que leur poids soit très variable d'un individu à l'autre. Or il n'y a pas de source individuelle qui permette leur observation directe à niveau fin. Cet article présente une démarche qui vise à combler cette lacune, celle du modèle Omar (Outil de Microsimulation pour l'Analyse des Restes à charge). Ce modèle reconstitue le partage de la dépense individuelle entre les trois financeurs: la Sécurité sociale, l'organisme complémentaire et l'individu. Il le fait en s'appuyant sur deux sources. La première est la source Epas-SPS qui apparie l'enquête Santé et Protection Sociale de l'Irdes et des données administratives de la Caisse nationale d'assurance maladie. La seconde est une enquête de la Drees auprès des organismes de couverture complémentaire. Cette dernière permet d'identifier les principales caractéristiques des contrats qu'ils offrent à leurs affiliés. Les informations de ces deux sources sont combinées et complétées par diverses techniques d'imputation. Ce modèle a commencé à être utilisé pour des travaux d'études appliqués, tels que l'analyse de la redistribution opérée par le système de soins selon l'âge et selon le niveau de vie. L'objectif du présent article est plutôt méthodologique: il consiste à détailler les principales composantes du modèle, et notamment les procédures d'imputation retenues pour compléter les données qui ne sont pas directement observables dans les deux sources. Des tests de robustesse permettent d'apprécier la qualité des résultats obtenus.52164XVI52146AXII521Dépense01Expenditures01Assurance maladie02Health insurance02Seguro de enfermedad02Couverture sociale03Social security cover03Ménage04Household04Régime complémentaire05Complementary Health Care System05077 0198-9715CEUSD5Comput., environ. urban syst.366Analysis of crime patterns through the integration of an agent-based model and a population microsimulation : Advances in GeocomputationMALLESON (Nick)BIRKIN (Mark)School of Geography, University of LeedsLeeds LS2 9JTGBR1 aut.2 aut.551-5612012ENGINIST201923540005054706700600000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.13-0098123PAComputers, environment and urban systemsGBRIn recent years, criminologists have become interested in understanding crime variations at progressively finer spatial scales, right down to individual streets or even houses. To model at these fine spatial scales, and to better account for the dynamics of the crime system, agent-based models of crime are emerging. Generally, these have been more successful in representing the behaviour of criminals than their victims. In this paper it is suggested that individual representations of criminal behaviour can be enhanced by combining them with models of the criminal environment which are specified at a similar scale. In the case of burglary this means the identification of individual households as targets. We will show how this can be achieved using the complementary technique of microsimulation. The work is significant because it allows agent-based models of crime to be refined geographically (to allow, for example, individual households with varying wealth or occupancy measures) and leads to the identification of the characteristics of individual victims.770D03DIVZone urbaine02Urban area02Zona urbana02Criminologie03Criminology03Criminología03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Analyse spatiale05Spatial analysis05Análisis espacial05Crime06Crime06Crimen06Vol criminel07Criminal theft07Robo07Orienté agent08Agent oriented08Orientado agente08Modèle simulation09Simulation model09Modelo simulación09Modèle microscopique10Microscopic model10Modelo microscópico10Reconstruction11Reconstruction11Reconstrucción11Population12Population12Población12Cartographie13Cartography13Cartografía13Royaume-UniNG14United KingdomNG14Reino UnidoNG14EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG070PSIPSI 0894-4393Soc. sci. comput. rev.304Microsimulation Modeling of Student Success in Community Colleges Using MicroCCSPIELAUER (Martin)ANDERSON (Ronald E.)Microsimulation ConsultantOttawa, ONCAN1 aut.University of MinnesotaWayzata, MNUSA2 aut.499-5122012ENGINIST269033540005068241900700000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.13-0098950PCASocial science computer reviewUSAWhile microsimulation modeling has not been utilized extensively in either social science or educational research, it offers to greatly improve understanding, especially of careers and institutional changes over time. The MicroCC microsimulation model was developed and tested on over 250,000 community college students who enrolled in Connecticut and Rhode Island. MicroCC simulated term-by-term progress and completion of new students for 4.5 years. Using data-based effect coefficients, the model simulated decisions for four process factors: re-enrollment, full-time attendance, the number of courses taken, and course completions. The model allowed decomposition of racial, gender, and other differences in success rates by process factors. The findings have major relevance for improving student success rates, especially by suggesting ways to make student advising more effective. Besides serving as an analytical tool, MicroCC allows projection of completion rates under &dquot;what-if&dquot; scenarios. Illustrative input data for MicroCC and a user and access guide are given in appendices.52134IX52161XIV521Etudiant01Student01Simulation02Simulation02Modélisation03Modeling03Espace virtuelNI04Virtual spaceNI04SuccèsINC32070 0894-4393Soc. sci. comput. rev.303Data Matching to Allocate Doctors to Patients in a Microsimulation Model of the Primary Care Process in New ZealandRANDOW (Martin Von)DAVIS (Peter)LAY-YEE (Roy)PEARSON (Janet)COMPASS Research Centre, The University of AucklandAucklandNZL1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.358-3682012ENGINIST269033540005008628000700000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/213-0078955PASocial science computer reviewUSAThe authors aimed to use existing data to create a microsimulation model of the primary care process in New Zealand, including realistically simulating the allocation of general practitioners (GPs) to a population sample. This is important because GP behavior is likely to be a major determinant of future cost and service outcomes. Two nationally representative data sets were matched: a sample of GPs and their patients from the National Primary Medical Care Survey (NPMCS) and a population sample from the New Zealand Health Survey (NZHS). Matching involved first dividing the data sets into cells based on common variables. Further variables were then included in a distance function to guide matching within cells. A transportation optimization algorithm allocated GPs based on these-on similarities in patients' attributes. Statistical matching performed well with high correlations for patient attributes and reduced average absolute rank differences on proportions of patients among GPs compared to random matching. Low Kullback- Leibler (K-L) divergences confirmed that our method of statistical matching had allocated GPs realistically. Models of primary care too frequently omit the role of the practitioner in driving health service outcomes. The authors developed a method to impute characteristics of GPs to a population-based microsimulation model of primary care.52163XV5218I52158AXIV521Nouvelle-ZélandeNG01New ZealandNG01Médecine générale02General Practice Medicine02Santé03Health03MicrosimulationINC32049 0303-8300Soc. indic. res.1053Approximations to the Truth: Comparing Survey and Microsimulation Approaches to Measuring Income for Social IndicatorsFIGARI (Francesco)IACOVOU (Maria)SKEW (Alexandra J.)SUTHERLAND (Holly)Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Wivenhoe ParkColchester, Essex CO4 3SQGBR1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.Department of Economics, University of InsubriaVareseITA1 aut.387-4072012ENGINIST222863540005084431600600000© 2013 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/413-0055253PASocial indicators researchNLDIn this paper, we evaluate income distributions in four European countries (Austria, Italy, Spain and Hungary) using two complementary approaches: a standard approach based on reported incomes in survey data, and a microsimulation approach, where taxes and benefits are simulated. These two approaches may be expected to generate slightly different results, particularly in respect of individuals on lower incomes, because benefit receipts tend to be under-reported in survey data, and over-estimated in microsimulation procedures. However, we find that the two approaches do in fact produce reasonably consistent results, in terms of both inequality measures and poverty rates. To the extent that the results differ, we explore the reasons why these differences arise, and suggest directions for future research, in which each approach may inform improvements in the other.5218I521Méthodologie01Methodology01Comparaison internationale02Crossnational Comparisons02EuropeNG03EuropeNG03Répartition des revenus04Income distribution04Pauvreté05Poverty05Inégalité sociale06Social Inequality06035 0049-4488TNPRDNTransportation393Advances in population synthesis: fitting many attributes per agent and fitting to household and person margins simultaneouslyPRITCHARD (David R.)MILLER (Eric J.)Metrolinx, 20 Bay St. Suite 901Toronto, ON M5S 1A4CAN1 aut.Cities Centre, University of Toronto, 455 Spadina Ave., Suite 400Toronto. ON M5S 2G8CAN2 aut.685-7042012ENGINIST159853540001946616900900000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.12-0442780PATransportationDEUAgent-based microsimulation models of transportation, land use or other socioeconomic processes require an initial synthetic population derived from census data, conventionally created using the iterative proportional fitting (IPF) procedure. This paper introduces a novel computational method that allows the synthesis of many more attributes and finer attribute categories than previous approaches, both of which are long-standing limitations discussed in the literature. Additionally, a new approach is used to fit household and person zonal attribute distributions simultaneously. This technique was first adopted to address limitations specific to Canadian census data, but could also be useful in U.S. and other applications. The results of each new method are evaluated empirically in terms of goodness-of-fit.001D15B001D14A06001D14C03295Transports02Transportation02Transportes02Occupation sol03Land use03Ocupación terreno03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Modèle simulation05Simulation model05Modelo simulación05Modèle prévision06Forecast model06Modelo previsión06Voyage07Travel07Viaje07Orienté agent08Agent oriented08Orientado agente08Population09Population09Población09Processus itératif10Iterative process10Proceso iterativo10Ajustement11Fitting11Ajuste11Optimisation12Optimization12Optimización12345PSIPSI 0003-4819AIMEASAnn. intern. med.1579Rescreening of Persons With a Negative Colonoscopy Result: Results From a Microsimulation ModelKNUDSEN (Amy B.)HUR (Chin)GAZELLE (G. Scott)SCHRAG (Deborah)MCFARLAND (Elizabeth G.)KUNTZ (Karen M.)Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard School of Public Health, and Dana-Farber Cancer InstituteBoston, MassachusettsUSASSM St. Joseph HospitalSt. Charles, MissouriUSASchool of Public Health, University of MinnesotaMinneapolis, MinnesotaUSA611-6202012ENGINIST20143540005029085800200000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.63 ref.12-0438679PAAnnals of internal medicineUSABackground: Persons with a negative result on screening colonoscopy are recommended to repeat the procedure in 10 years. Objective: To assess the effectiveness and costs of colonoscopy versus other rescreening strategies after an initial negative colonoscopy result. Design: Microsimulation model. Data Sources: Literature and data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. Target Population: Persons aged 50 years who had no adenomas or cancer detected on screening colonoscopy. Time Horizon: Lifetime. Perspective: Societal. Intervention: No further screening or rescreening starting at age 60 years with colonoscopy every 10 years, annual highly sensitive guaiac fecal occult blood testing (HSFOBT), annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), or computed tomographic colonography (CTC) every 5 years. Outcome Measures: Lifetime cases of colorectal cancer, life expectancy, and lifetime costs per 1000 persons, assuming either perfect or imperfect adherence. Results of Base-Case Analysis: Rescreening with any method substantially reduced the risk for colorectal cancer compared with no further screening (range, 7.7 to 12.6 lifetime cases per 1000 persons [perfect adherence] and 17.7 to 20.9 lifetime cases per 1000 persons [imperfect adherence] vs. 31.3 lifetime cases per 1000 persons with no further screening). In both adherence scenarios, the differences in life-years across rescreening strategies were small (range, 30893 to 30902 life-years per 1000 persons [perfect adherence] vs. 30865 to 30869 life-years per 1000 persons [imperfect adherence]). Rescreening with HSFOBT, FIT, or CTC had fewer complications and was less costly than continuing colonoscopy. Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Results were sensitive to test-specific adherence rates. Limitation: Data on adherence to rescreening were limited. Conclusion: Compared with the currently recommended strategy of continuing colonoscopy every 10 years after an initial negative examination, rescreening at age 60 years with annual HSFOBT, annual FIT, or CTC every 5 years provides approximately the same benefit in life-years with fewer complications at a lower cost. Therefore, it is reasonable to use other methods to rescreen persons with negative colonoscopy results. Primary Funding Source: National Cancer Institute.002B01002B24E06Endoscopie01Endoscopy01Endoscopía01Résultat négatif02Negative result02Resultado negativo02Colonoscopie03Colonoscopy03Colonoscopía03Modèle05Models05Modelo05Médecine06Medicine06Medicina06338OTOOTO 0308-1060TPLTAKTransp. plann. technol. : (Print)351Calibration of bus parameters in microsimulation traffic modellingUniversities' Transport Studies Group UK Annual Conference 2011JING ZHANGHOUNSELL (Nick)SHRESTHA (Birendra)ISON (Stephen G.)ed.POTTER (Stephen)ed.School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, University of SouthamptonSouthamptonGBR1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.Transport Studies Group, School of Civil and Building Engineering, Loughborough UniversityLoughborough, Leicestershire, LE11 3TUGBR1 aut.Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, Faculty of Maths, Computing and Technolgoy, The Open Unversity, Walton HallMilton Keynes, MK7 6AAGBR2 aut.Universities' Transport Studies Group (UTSG)SouthamptonGBRorg-cong.107-1202012ENGINIST156323540005097126700700000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.12-0409969PCATransportation planning and technology : (Print)GBRMicroscopic traffic simulation models have advanced significantly in recent years and are now used extensively around the world for detailed traffic modelling where dynamic operations have to be represented. Whilst extremely powerful, these models can have substantial calibration requirements. This paper illustrates a new method of calibration of bus performance parameters as part of the 'Gipps' car-following model used within the microscopic simulation package Aimsun. This research looks at the impact of bus signal priority strategies on bus and traffic emissions. Calibration was undertaken using second-by-second bus performance data recorded automatically within the new iBus system in London. Results illustrate significant differences between some measured and default parameters, which in turn lead to some inaccuracies in emissions predictions for buses. Calibration is therefore essential and can benefit from the ever-increasing sources of automatic data emerging from new Intelligent Transport Systems applications.001D15CTrafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Autobus03Bus03Autobus03Vitesse déplacement04Speed04Velocidad desplazamiento04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Etalonnage07Calibration07Contraste07Modèle microscopique08Microscopic model08Modelo microscópico08Paramètre10Parameter10Parámetro10Emission gaz11Gas emission11Emisión gas11Comportement12Behavior12Conducta12Conduite véhicule13Vehicle driving13Conducción vehículo13Analyse donnée14Data analysis14Análisis datos14Accélération15Acceleration15Aceleración15Etude comparative16Comparative study16Estudio comparativo16Suivi de véhiculeCD96Car followingCD96317PSIPSIUniversities' Transport Studies Group (UTSG) UK Annual Conference 201143Milton Keynes GBR2011-01-05/2011-01-07 0020-7136IJCNAWInt. j. cancer1319How should individuals with a false-positive fecal occult blood test for colorectal cancer be managed? A decision analysisHAUG (Ulrike)KNUDSEN (Amy B.)KUNTZ (Karen M.)Division of Preventive Oncology, National Center for Tumor Diseases/German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ)HeidelbergDEU1 aut.Department of Radiology, Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General HospitalBoston, MAUSA2 aut.Division of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, University of MinnesotaMinneapolis, MNUSA3 aut.2094-21022012ENGINIST130273540005081710601400000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.43 ref.12-0390149PAInternational journal of cancerUSASeveral industrialized nations recommend fecal occult blood testing (FOBT) to screen for colorectal cancer (CRC), but corresponding screening guidelines do not specify how individuals with a prior false-positive FOBT result (fpFOBT) should be managed in terms of subsequent CRC screening. Accordingly, we conducted a decision analysis to compare different strategies for managing such individuals. We used a previously developed CRC microsimulation model, SimCRC, to calculate life-years and the lifetime number of colonoscopies (as a measure of required resources) for a cohort of 50-year-olds to whom FOBT-based CRC screening is offered annually from 50 to 75 years. We compared three management strategies for individuals with a prior fpFOBT: (i) resume screening in 10 years with 10-yearly colonoscopy (SwitchCol_long); (ii) resume screening in 1 year with annual FOBT (ContinueFOBT_Short) and (iii) resume screening in 10 years (i.e., the recommended interval following a negative colonscopy) with annual FOBT (ContinueFOBT_long). We performed sensitivity analyses on various parameters and assumptions. When using different management strategies for individuals with a prior fpFOBT, the variation in the number of life-years gained relative to no screening was <2%, whereas the variation in the lifetime number of colonoscopies was 23% (percentages are calculated as the maximum difference across strategies divided by the lowest number across strategies). The ContinueFOBT_long strategy showed the lowest lifetime number of colonoscopies per life-year gained even when key assumptions were varied. In conclusion, the ContinueFOBT_long strategy was advantageous regarding both clinical benefit and required resources. Specifying an appropriate management strategy for individuals with a prior fpFOBT may substantially reduce required resources within a FOBT-based CRC screening program without limiting its effectiveness.002B04002B13B01MicrométastaseNM01MicrometastasisNM01MicrometástasisNM01Homme02Human02Hombre02Faux positif03False positive03Falso positivo03Cancer colorectalNM04Colorectal cancerNM04Cancer de colon y rectoNM04Fèces05Feces05Heces05Sang06Blood06Sangre06Analyse décision08Decision analysis08Análisis decisión08Dépistage09Medical screening09Descubrimiento09Cancérologie11Cancerology11Cancerología11Cancer occulteCD96Occult cancerCD96Cáncer ocultoCD96Pathologie de l'appareil digestif37Digestive diseases37Aparato digestivo patología37Pathologie du côlon38Colonic disease38Colón patología38Pathologie de l'intestin39Intestinal disease39Intestino patología39Tumeur maligneNM40Malignant tumorNM40Tumor malignoNM40CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie du rectum41Rectal disease41Recto patología41303OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2259Predictive Priority for Light Rail Transit: University Light Rail Line in Salt Lake County, UtahTraffic Signal Systems 2011ZLATKOVIC (Milan)MARTIN (Peter T.)STEVANOVIC (Aleksandar)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, 110 Central Campus DriveSalt Lake City, UT 84112USA1 aut.2 aut.Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geomatics Engineering, Florida Atlantic University, Building 36, Room 225, 777 Glades RoadBoca Raton, FL 33431USA3 aut.168-1782011ENGINIST10459B3540005098242101600000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.12 ref.12-0389120PATransportation research recordUSAThe goal of this paper is to assess the operational implementation of strategies for predictive light rail priority through microsimulation. A 2-mi corridor in Salt Lake County, Utah, where the University Line of light rail line operates, was studied. The study used VISSIM microsimulation models to analyze light rail operations and the effects that light rail priority has on transit and vehicular traffic. Results showed that although the existing priority strategies had no effects on vehicular traffic along the corridor, they reduced train travel times by 20% to 30%. Left turns along the main corridor were slightly affected by the priority. Although the priority strategies could have minor to major effects on vehicular traffic along side streets through increased delays, they reduced train delays by 2.5 min along the corridor. Enabling priority at the 700 E intersection (where the priority was currently not active) would help reduce delays for trains by an additional 10%, with a small increase in vehicle delays. However, the coordinated north-south through movements would experience minimum impacts. Three recommendations emerged from the study: enable priority at 700 E to improve transit without major effects on vehicular traffic; reset priority parameters at intersections adjacent to light rail stations so that the priority call encompasses station dwell times; and consider removing the queue jump strategies, so as to reduce delays for the corridor through movements and help preserve coordination patterns.001D15DMétro léger02Light rail transit02Metro ligero02UtahNG03UtahNG03UtahNG03Modèle prévision04Forecast model04Modelo previsión04Priorité05Priority05Prioridad05Evaluation projet06Project evaluation06Evaluación proyecto06Collecte donnée07Data gathering07Recolección dato07Modélisation08Modeling08Modelización08Vitesse déplacement09Speed09Velocidad desplazamiento09Durée trajet10Travel time10Duración trayecto10Etalonnage11Calibration11Contraste11Validation12Validation12Validación12Résultat13Result13Resultado13Retard14Delay14Retraso14Intersection15Intersection15Intersección15Modèle simulation16Simulation model16Modelo simulación16Niveau de serviceCD96Level of serviceCD96Nivel de servicioCD96Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG303PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2259Turn Pocket Blockage and Spillback Models: Applications for Signal Timing and Capacity AnalysisTraffic Signal Systems 2011REYNOLDS (William L.)ROUPHAIL (Nagui M.)XUESONG ZHOUInstitute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State University, Centennial Campus, Box 8601Raleigh, NC 27695-8601USA1 aut.2 aut.Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc., 2550 University Avenue West, Suite 238NSaint Paul, MN 55114USA1 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, 122 South Central Campus Drive, 210 CMESalt Lake City, UT 84112-0561USA3 aut.112-1222011ENGINIST10459B3540005098242101000000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.12-0389109PATransportation research recordUSAThe development of a macroscopic simulation tool is presented and tested to quantify the effects of short turn pockets on the sustainable service rate of a signalized intersection. Unlike the theoretical signal capacity, the sustainable service rate includes queue interaction effects and is thus influenced by blockage and spillback at the entrance to a short turn pocket. Previous research on the topic has focused either on the probability of spillback from a short turn pocket or the operation of a system with a single approach lane. No macroscopic model currently available has the ability to analyze throughput reductions due to the effects of short turn pockets on a multilane approach. The model described here uses a series of flow and density restrictions on cells of varying sizes on the approach to the intersection. Results, which indicate sensitivity of the model to turn pocket spillback, blockage, saturation flow rate, pocket length, lane utilization, cycle length, phase sequence, phase overlap, permitted phasing, and time-dependent demand, compare favorably with microsimulation. A phase optimization procedure is described to help efficiently allocate green time for a given set of turn pocket lengths and turn movement percentages. Implications of using the model for signal timing applications are discussed, and recommendations are made on additional model enhancements and testing needs.001D14O05001D14C03001D15C295Feu signalisation02Traffic lights02Semáforo02Intersection03Intersection03Intersección03Timing04Timing04Timing04Blocage05Blocking05Bloqueo05Application06Application06Aplicación06Traitement signal07Signal processing07Procesamiento señal07Modélisation08Modeling08Modelización08Ecoulement trafic09Traffic flow09Flujo tráfico09Trafic routier10Road traffic10Tráfico carretera10Sensibilité11Sensitivity11Sensibilidad11Optimisation12Optimization12Optimización12Voie circulation13Traffic lane13Vía tráfico13303PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2259Intelligent Traffic Signal System for Isolated Intersections: Dynamic Pedestrian AccommodationTraffic Signal Systems 2011LU (George X.)YI ZHANGNOYCE (David A.)Transportation Research Center, University of Vermont, Farrell Hall 118, 210 Colchester AvenueBurlington, VT 05405USA1 aut.Transportation Engineering Division1241 Engineering HallUSA2 aut.Traffic Operations and Safety Laboratory1204 Engineering HallUSA3 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1415 Engineering DriveMadison, Wl 53706-1691USA3 aut.96-1112011ENGINIST10459B3540005098242100900000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.45 ref.12-0389104PATransportation research recordUSAOne critical issue of traffic control is the optimization of signalized intersections for improved multimodal safety and operations. Accommodating pedestrian traffic at intersections is challenging because the demands of multimodal service compete fiercely on limited green time resources. The Highway Capacity Manual prescribes that the parallel vehicle green must exceed &dquot;Walk&dquot; plus pedestrian clearance interval (PCI) timed by a design walking speed. This static PCI timing is unsafe because seniors and children are likely to be slower than the design pedestrian. Furthermore, a vehicle-flow issue arises when the prolonged PCI exceeds the operationally efficient parallel green: additional vehicle right-of-way, unnecessary for operational efficiency, preempts green time from conflicting phase(s) and increases intersectionwide queuing delays. Queuing delays necessitate a trade-off between competing multifaceted traveler needs. Fuzzy logic control (FLC) proves effective, flexible, and robust in handling competing objectives. With the dynamic PCI concept, this research developed an intelligent traffic signal system that performed friendly pedestrian accommodation and also incorporated FLC into fulfilling multifaceted vehicle needs. The potential benefits from the new system optimized with a genetic algorithm were quantified through a comparison with a standard dual-ring, eight-phase, vehicle-actuated controller, conventionally cited as NEMA (National Electrical Manufacturers Association) control. Microsimulation experiments revealed that the current countermeasure, which lowered PCI timing design speed to strengthen crossing safety, was operationally deficient. The existing timing standard cannot offer adequate safety for all pedestrians, and the NEMA system omits multifaceted vehicle needs in control logic. In contrast, the FLC system fully protects all pedestrians through dynamic PCI and smartly serves manifold vehicle needs well. The FLC system outperforms the NEMA control by embodying a reasonable trade-off between competing objectives in the management of an isolated intersection.001D14O05001D14C03001D15C295Feu signalisation02Traffic lights02Semáforo02Intersection03Intersection03Intersección03Système intelligent04Intelligent system04Sistema inteligente04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Modèle dynamique06Dynamic model06Modelo dinámico06Régulation trafic07Traffic control07Regulación tráfico07Trafic routier08Road traffic08Tráfico carretera08Description système09System description09Descripción sistema09Configuration10Configuration10Configuración10Optimisation11Optimization11Optimización11Algorithme génétique12Genetic algorithm12Algoritmo genético12Evaluation système13System evaluation13Evaluación sistema13Etude comparative14Comparative study14Estudio comparativo14Ecoulement trafic15Traffic flow15Flujo tráfico15303PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2255Change in Land Use Through Microsimulation of Market Dynamics: Agent-Based Model of Land Development and Locator Bidding in Austin, TexasTravel Forecasting 2011. Volume 2BIN ZHOUKOCKELMAN (Kara M.)Department of Engineering, Central Connecticut State University, Copernicus Hall, Room 21208New Britain, CT 06050USA1 aut.Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 6.9 Ernest Cockrell Jr. HallAustin, TX 78712-1076USA2 aut.125-1362011ENGINIST10459B3540005086827301400000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.33 ref.12-0388815PATransportation research recordUSAVarious land use models are now available, but a market-based model with sufficient spatial resolution and defensible behavioral foundations remains elusive. The model system developed in the study described here emphasized the interactions of individual market agents (on both the demand and the supply sides) and enjoyed behavioral foundations for each of the key actors at the level of parcels. Auction (or competition between market agents) was used to simulate price adjustment, and market-clearing prices were endogenously determined by iterative adjustment of the bidding prices for residential and commercial properties. A series of models for households, firms, and land developers and owners was estimated with actual data from Austin, Texas. The estimation results revealed tangible behavioral foundations for the evolution of urban land uses. The model forecasts demonstrated the strengths and limitations of this market simulation approach. Although equilibrium prices in forecast years were generally lower than those that were observed or expected, the spatial distributions of property values, new development, and individual agents were reasonable.001D15B001D14A06295Transports02Transportation02Transportes02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Modèle prévision04Forecast model04Modelo previsión04Etude marché05Market survey05Estudio mercado05Occupation sol06Land use06Ocupación terreno06Modèle dynamique07Dynamic model07Modelo dinámico07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Enchère09Bidding09Subasta09TexasNG10TexasNG10TexasNG10Orienté agent11Agent oriented11Orientado agente11Architecture système12System architecture12Arquitectura sistema12Prix13Price13Precio13Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG303PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2255Modeling of Job Mobility and Location Choice DecisionsTravel Forecasting 2011. Volume 2AHSANUL HABIB (Muhammad)MILLER (Eric J.)MANS (Bruce T.)School of Planning, Dalhousie University, 5410 Spring Garden RoadHalifax, Nova Scotia B3J 2X4CAN1 aut.3 aut.Cities Centre, University of Toronto, 455 Spadina Avenue, Suite 400Toronto, Ontario M5S 2G8CAN2 aut.69-782011ENGINIST10459B3540005086827300800000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.40 ref.12-0388808PATransportation research recordUSAThis paper presents a comprehensive framework for modeling continuous decisions about changing jobs that individuals make over the course of their lives. The key objective of the research was to develop disaggregate econometric models for decision making about job mobility and location choice to implement longitudinal job mobility behavior of people within a dynamic microsimulation-based integrated urban modeling system. The paper includes two behavioral model components: (a) a job mobility model and (b) a job location choice model. The models were implemented empirically with a retrospective survey of the greater Toronto and Hamilton area in Ontario, Canada. The first component investigated the timing of job mobility with the use of a competing risk duration modeling approach for four event types: a job switch, a return to school, short-term unemployment, and withdrawal from the labor force. The second component, job location choice, was empirically estimated by applying the discrete choice methodology. One of the key features of the model was that it examined the influence of current employment in making decisions about the next job location and specified a gain-loss utility structure by the prospect-theoretic, reference-dependent choice modeling approach. A mixed logit model was developed to account for unobserved heterogeneity in the location preferences. These models were expected to be implemented in the Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment (ILUTE) modeling system, which had recently been updated with comparable disaggregate behavioral residential location models.001D15ATransports02Transportation02Transportes02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Mobilité04Mobility04Movilidad04Choix05Choice05Elección05Prise de décision06Decision making06Toma decision06Changement07Change07Cambio07Lieu travail08Work place08Lugar trabajo08Application09Application09Aplicación09Méthode empirique10Empirical method10Método empírico10Statistique11Statistics11Estadística11Risque12Risk12Riesgo12Localisation13Localization13Localización13303PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2255Cross-Entropy Optimization Model for Population Synthesis in Activity-Based Microsimulation ModelsTravel Forecasting 2011. Volume 2LEE (Der-Horng)YINGFEI FUBlock E1A, No. 07-16, National University of Singapore, 1 Engineering Drive 2Singapore 117576SGP1 aut.Block E1, No. 08-20, Department of Civil Engineering, National University of Singapore, 1 Engineering Drive 2Singapore 117576SGP2 aut.20-272011ENGINIST10459B3540005086827300300000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.17 ref.12-0388801PATransportation research recordUSAMicrosimulation techniques for disaggregate activity-based travel demand models are expected to synthesize a desired number of fully specified individual activity patterns. A data prerequisite for this technique is the so-called synthetic population, a key input for activity-generating procedures. The iterative proportional fitting method has been widely used to estimate the multiway demographic tables for different geographic areas. This study proposed a cross-entropy optimization model in which generalized constraints for different demographic characteristics of the synthetic population could be included. A quasi-Newton algorithm was devised to solve the proposed problem. Encouraging results obtained from the model application suggested that the proposed method held much promise for generating a more realistic synthetic population with different types of demographic characteristics and could be generally applied in different geographic areas.001D15BTransports02Transportation02Transportes02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Modèle prévision04Forecast model04Modelo previsión04Modèle simulation05Simulation model05Modelo simulación05Optimisation06Optimization06Optimización06Entropie07Entropy07Entropía07Activité08Activity08Actividad08Etude théorique09Theoretical study09Estudio teórico09Planification10Planning10Planificación10Formulation11Formulation11Formulación11Application12Application12Aplicación12303PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2255Historical Validation of Integrated Transport-Land Use Model SystemTravel Forecasting 2011. Volume 2MILLER (Eric J.)FAROOQ (Bilal)CHINGCUANCO (Franco)WANG (David)Department of Civil Engineering and Cities Centre, University of Toronto, 455 Spadina AvenueToronto, Ontario M5S 2G8CAN1 aut.Division of Engineering Science, Department of Civil Engineering, 35 Saint George Street, University of TorontoToronto, Ontario M5S 1A4CAN2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.91-992011ENGINIST10459B3540005086827301000000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.32 ref.12-0388792PATransportation research recordUSAThe Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment (ILUTE) model system is an agent-based microsimulation model for the greater Toronto-Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, area. The model system uses disaggregate models of spatial socioeconomic processes to evolve the state of the greater Toronto-Hamilton area from a known base case to a predicted end state in 1-year time steps. ILUTE has reached a state of operational implementation in which historical validation runs are being undertaken. The model runs start with 100% of the population of people, families, households, and dwelling units in the greater Toronto area that was synthesized for the year 1986. Twenty-year historical simulations (1986 to 2006) have been run, with model outputs being compared with Canadian census data and Transportation Tomorrow Survey data for 1991, 1996,2001, and 2006. This paper presents recent findings from these historical validation tests and emphasizes the system's modeling of the demographic evolution of the population and the region's housing market.001D15B001D14A06295Transports02Transportation02Transportes02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Modèle prévision04Forecast model04Modelo previsión04Occupation sol05Land use05Ocupación terreno05Système intégré06Integrated system06Sistema integrado06Validation07Validation07Validación07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Démographie09Demography09Demografía09Résultat expérimental10Experimental result10Resultado experimental10Observation11Observation11Observación11Orienté agent12Agent oriented12Orientado agente12Etude marché13Market survey13Estudio mercado13Prix14Price14Precio14303PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2255Joint Model of Vehicle Type Choice and Tour LengthTravel Forecasting 2011. Volume 2KONDURI (Karthik C.)XIN YESANA (Bhargava)PENDYALA (Ram M.)School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Room ECG252Tempe, AZ 85287-5306USA1 aut.4 aut.National Center for Smart Growth Research and Education, University of Maryland, Preinkert Field House (Building 054) 1112DCollege Park, MD 20742USA2 aut.Resource Systems Group, Inc., 55 Railroad RowWhite River Junction, VT 05001USA3 aut.28-372011ENGINIST10459B3540005086827300400000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.30 ref.12-0388790PATransportation research recordUSATour-based microsimulation model systems are increasingly being applied to the forecasting of travel demand. This paper examines the relationship between two dimensions of tours: the type of vehicle (in a household that owns multiple vehicles of different types) chosen to undertake the tour and the overall length (distance traveled) of the tour. These two dimensions are of much interest in the current planning context, in which concerns about energy sustainability and greenhouse gas emissions are motivating planners to seek ways to mitigate the adverse impacts of automotive travel. Moreover, virtually all tour-based models currently used do not explicitly account for choice of vehicle type in the modeling of tour attributes, despite the critical importance of the choice of vehicle type for energy and emissions analysis. This paper presents a joint discretecontinuous model of choice of vehicle type and length of tours. Estimation results suggested that significant common unobserved factors affected vehicle type choice and length of tours. These factors justified the use of modeling approaches with joint simultaneous equations to model tour attributes. The model specification in which vehicle type choice affected tour length performed better than the specification in which tour length affected vehicle type choice. This outcome suggested that choice of vehicle type (and allocation to household members) was a longer-term choice that influenced shorter-term tour-length choices.001D15BTransports02Transportation02Transportes02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Modèle prévision04Forecast model04Modelo previsión04Modèle simulation05Simulation model05Modelo simulación05Type véhicule06Vehicle type06Tipo vehículo06Choix07Choice07Elección07Méthodologie08Methodology08Metodología08Formulation09Formulation09Formulación09Analyse donnée10Data analysis10Análisis datos10Statistique descriptive11Descriptive statistics11Estadística descriptiva11Demande transport12Transport demand12Demanda transporte12Voyage13Travel13Viaje13303PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2254Design of Comprehensive Microsimulator of Household Vehicle Fleet Composition, Utilization, and EvolutionTravel Forecasting 2011. Volume 1PALETI (Rajesh)ELURU (Naveen)BHAT (Chandra R.)PENDYALA (Ram M.)ADLER (Thomas J.)GOULIAS (Konstadinos G.)Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1761Austin TX 78712-0278USA1 aut.2 aut.Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics, McGill University, 817 Sherbrooke Street WestMontreal, Quebec H3A 2K6CAN3 aut.School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Room ECG252Tempe, AZ 85287-5306USA4 aut.Resource Systems Group, Inc., 55 Railroad RowWhite River Junction, VT 05001USA5 aut.Department of Geography, University of California, Santa BarbaraSanta Barbara, CA 93106-4060USA6 aut.44-572011ENGINIST10459B3540005098245400600000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.20 ref.12-0387555PATransportation research recordUSAThis paper describes a comprehensive vehicle fleet composition, utilization, and evolution simulator that can be used to forecast household vehicle ownership and mileage by type of vehicle over time. The components of the simulator are developed in this research effort by using detailed revealed and stated preference data on household vehicle fleet composition, utilization, and planned transactions collected for a large sample of households in California. Results of the model development effort show that the simulator holds promise as a tool for simulating vehicular choice processes in the context of activity-based travel microsimulation model systems.001D15B001D15CTransports02Transportation02Transportes02Modèle prévision03Forecast model03Modelo previsión03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Conception05Design05Diseño05Simulateur06Simulator06Simulador06Flotte07Fleet07Ménage08Household08Familia08Evolution09Evolution09Evolución09Utilisation10Use10Uso10Choix11Choice11Elección11Voyage12Travel12Viaje12Critère sélection13Selection criterion13Criterio selección13Type véhicule14Vehicle type14Tipo vehículo14Véhicule routier15Road vehicle15Vehículo caminero15296PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2254Dynamic Activity Generation Model Using Competing Hazard FormulationTravel Forecasting 2011. Volume 1AULD (Joshua)HOSSEIN RASHIDI (Taha)JAVANMARDI (Mahmoud)MOHAMMADIAN (Abolfazl (kouros))Department of Civil and Materials Engineering, University of Illinois at Chicago, 842 West Taylor StreetChicago, IL 60607USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.28-352011ENGINIST10459B3540005098245400400000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.40 ref.12-0387552PATransportation research recordUSARule-based activity scheduling microsimulation models often generate activities for individuals to engage in randomly, on the basis of observed activity rates from survey data. These microsimulation models try to represent more closely the process of activity pattern development. However, the dynamics underlying the activity generation process are often not considered, especially in regard to competition between activities for the limited time resource. This work, then, develops a methodology for generating activities on the basis of the time since the last activity of the same type was generated, by using a hazard-based formulation. In addition, the model explicitly accounts for the competition between activities through the use of a competing hazard framework. The results show that observed activity rates and temporal distributions from survey data can be replicated through simulation of the model in an activity-based scheduling model, the agent-based dynamic activity planning and travel scheduling (ADAPTS) activity scheduler.001D15BTransports02Transportation02Transportes02Modèle prévision03Forecast model03Modelo previsión03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Modèle dynamique05Dynamic model05Modelo dinámico05Formulation06Formulation06Formulación06Ordonnancement07Scheduling07Reglamento07Analyse risque08Risk analysis08Análisis riesgo08Modélisation09Modeling09Modelización09Activité10Activity10Actividad10296PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2254Goodness-of-Fit Evaluation Method for Agent-Based Household Microdata Sets Composed of Generalized AttributesTravel Forecasting 2011. Volume 1OTANI (Noriko)SUGIKI (Nao)MIYAMOTO (Kazuaki)Faculty of Environmental and Information Studies, Tokyo City University, 3-3-1 Ushikubo-NishiTsuzuki-Ku, Yokohama 224-8551JPN1 aut.3 aut.Research and Planning Department, Docon Co., Ltd., 4-1, 5-Chome, 1-jo, Atsubetsu-ChoAtsubetsu-Ku, Sapporo 004-8585JPN2 aut.97-1032011ENGINIST10459B3540005098245401000000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.16 ref.12-0387542PATransportation research recordUSAMicrosimulation models of land use characterize attributes of a household and its location, referred to as microdata in this study. However, methods for evaluating the goodness of fit between estimated and observed sets of agent-based microdata have not been investigated extensively. Although the attributes of a household include various items, such as the relationship with the household head and ages of the members, housing type and spatial location, number of cars owned, and income, the attributes can be classified into general categories. The objective of the present study is to develop a goodness-of-fit evaluation method for agent-based household microdata sets composed of generalized attributes. First, a distance measure between the estimated and observed microdata for each household is defined. In this definition a generalized scheme is introduced, whereby attributes are structured by the household composition, attributes of the member, and attributes of the household as a whole. The goodness of fit is measured on the basis of the minimum sum of distances for all households in the study area. The calculation cannot be carried out with just a conventional algorithm for microdata of a typical size because the number of calculations increases in proportion to the factorial (N!) of the number (N) of agents. Therefore, a genetic algorithm, especially one using symbiotic evolution, is developed to solve the problem. The effectiveness of the method in regard to accuracy and calculation feasibility is confirmed by using person trip survey data for the Sapporo metropolitan area in Japan.001D15BTransports02Transportation02Transportes02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Modèle prévision05Forecast model05Modelo previsión05Analyse donnée06Data analysis06Análisis datos06Ménage07Household07Familia07Test ajustement08Goodness of fit test08Prueba ajuste08Méthode calcul09Computing method09Método cálculo09Optimisation10Optimization10Optimización10Algorithme11Algorithm11Algoritmo11Evaluation performance12Performance evaluation12Evaluación prestación12296PSIPSI What Drives Differences in Health Care Demand ? The Role of Health Insurance and Selection BiasSHANE (D.)TRIVEDI (P.)University of York. Health Econometrics and Data Group. (H.E.D.G.). York.GBR2012ENGUniversity of YorkLondres29 p.tabl., fig.RPBDSP/IRDES880012-0368458RMGBRQu'est-ce qui fait la différence dans la demande de soins de santé ? Le rôle de l'assurance maladie et des biais de sélectionThis paper employs an econometric model to parse differences in health care utilization attributable to private health insurance and differences due to self-selection into insurance status, with specific interest in selection on unobservable traits such as insurance preference or attitude toward health risks. The model has two components, one component to model insurance outcome, the other to model demand for care measured as the annual number of doctor visits and prescriptions filled. Recognizing the endogeneity of health insurance, the model allows for correlated unobserved heterogeneity by assuming a latent factor structure. Values for these latent factors are drawn through simulation and the model is estimated using maximum simulated likelihood methods. For the observable characteristics that predict need for health services we find evidence of adverse selection. However, we also find evidence of advantageous selection on the unobservable characteristics common to insurance choice and utilization. In other words, unobserved heterogeneity that increases the chances of being uninsured is associated with higher utilization. Given this selection decomposition, there is no inherent conflict in describing the influence of both adverse and advantageous selection in utilization comparisons. After controlling for selection, the insurance incentive effect (ex-post moral hazard) is positive and significant. For the average individual, switching from no coverage to full coverage would result in 2 additional visits to the doctor per year (+160%) and 8 additional prescriptions filled (+207%)002B30A11AssuranceInsuranceSeguroSecteur privéPrivate sectorSector privadoService santéHealth serviceServicio sanidadUtilisationUseUsoEconomie santéHealth economyEconomía saludConsommationConsumptionConsumoSoinCareCuidadoMédicamentDrugMedicamentoDemandeDemandPeticiónSantéHealthSaludModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoEtats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG289 Vieillissement de la population et croissance des dépenses de santéDORMONT (B.)HUBER (H.)Chaire Santé. Paris.FRA2012FREInstitut MontparnasseParis26 p.fig.RPBDSP/IRDES8800dissem.12-0368430RMFRADepuis le milieu du XXe siècle les économies développées connaissent deux grandes tendances : un formidable accroissement de la longévité et une augmentation continuelle de la part du produit intérieur brut consacrée aux dépenses de santé. Quel est le lien entre ces deux évolutions ? Contrairement à une opinion répandue, le vieillissement ne joue qu'un rôle mineur dans la croissance des dépenses de santé. Certes, chaque individu voit ses dépenses de santé augmenter lorsqu'il vieillit. Mais les changements les plus importants sont dus au fait que les dépenses individuelles de santé augmentent dans le temps, à âge et à maladie donnés. En 2009, par exemple, un homme de 50 ans affecté d'un diabète dépense beaucoup plus pour sa santé que le même quinquagénaire diabétique ne dépensait en 2000. Ce mouvement est sans rapport avec le vieillissement de la population. Il résulte principalement de la dynamique du progrès médical : de nouveaux produits et de nouvelles procédures apparaissent continuellement, qui induisent des changements dans les pratiques médicales. Une analyse de microsimulation réalisée sur des échantillons représentatifs des assurés sociaux français a permis de montrer que ces changements de pratiques influencent massivement la croissance des dépenses de santé, le vieillissement de la population ne jouant qu'un rôle mineur : sur la période 1992-2000, il n'explique pas plus d'un dixième de la croissance des dépenses de soins. Nous procédons ici à une actualisation de cette étude sur la période 2000-2008. En reprenant les termes de l'analyse sur les deux périodes 1992-2000 et 2000-2008, nous procédons à des décompositions rétrospectives de l'impact des différents facteurs de la croissance des dépenses de santé. Ces décompositions sont obtenues grâce à l'estimation, sur des échantillons représentatifs des assurés français, de modèles de consommation de soins permettant de mettre en oeuvre des microsimulations002B30A11DépenseExpenditureGastoSantéHealthSaludPopulationPopulationPoblaciónSénescenceSenescenceSenescenciaFinancementFinancingFinanciaciónAssurance maladieHealth insuranceSeguro enfermedadInnovationInnovationInnovaciónMédecineMedicineMedicinaClasse âgeAge distributionClase edadMorbiditéMorbidityMorbilidadHôpitalHospitalHospitalMédicamentDrugMedicamentoConsultationConsultationConsultaEvolutionEvolutionEvoluciónDonnée statistiqueStatistical dataDato estadísticoEtude impactImpact studyEstudio impactoAppariementPairingEmparejamientoSimulationSimulationSimulaciónFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG289 0007-0920BJCAAIBr. j. cancer1075To be screened or not to be screened? Modeling the consequences of PSA screening for the individualWEVER (E. M.)HUGOSSON (J.)HEIJNSDIJK (Eam)BANGMA (C. H.)DRAISMA (G.)DE KONING (H. J.)Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, PO Box 2040Rotterdam 3000 CANLD1 aut.3 aut.5 aut.6 aut.Department of Urology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Bruno stråket 11 B41345, GöteborgSWE2 aut.Department of Urology, Erasmus Medical Center, PO Box 2040Rotterdam 3000 CANLD4 aut.778-7842012ENGINIST69253540005081243800400000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.12-0353467PABritish journal of cancerGBRBACKGROUND: Screening with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) can reduce prostate cancer mortality, but may advance diagnosis and treatment in time and lead to overdetection and overtreatment. We estimated benefits and adverse effects of PSA screening for individuals who are deciding whether or not to be screened. METHODS: Using a microsimulation model, we estimated lifetime probabilities of prostate cancer diagnosis and death, overall life expectancy and expected time to diagnosis, both with and without screening. We calculated anticipated loss in quality of life due to prostate cancer diagnosis and treatment that would be acceptable to decide in favour of screening. RESULTS: Men who were screened had a gain in life expectancy of 0.08 years but their expected time to diagnosis decreased by 1.53 life-years. Of the screened men, 0.99% gained on average 8.08 life-years and for 17.43% expected time to diagnosis decreased by 8.78 life-years. These figures imply that the anticipated loss in quality of life owing to diagnosis and treatment should not exceed 4.8%, for screening to have a positive effect on quality-adjusted life expectancy. CONCLUSION: The decision to be screened should depend on personal preferences. The negative impact of screening might be reduced by screening men who are more willing to accept the side effects from treatment.002B04002B14D02Marqueur tumoral01Tumoral marker01Marcador tumoral01Dépistage02Medical screening02Descubrimiento02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Cancer de la prostateNM04Prostate cancerNM04Cáncer de la próstataNM04Antigène spécifique prostate05Prostate specific antigen05Antigeno específico prostata05Homme06Human06Hombre06Espérance de vie08Life expectancy08Esperanza de vida08Cancérologie09Cancerology09Cancerología09Pathologie de l'appareil génital mâle37Male genital diseases37Aparato genital macho patología37Pathologie de l'appareil urinaire38Urinary system disease38Aparato urinario patología38Tumeur maligneNM39Malignant tumorNM39Tumor malignoNM39CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie de la prostate40Prostate disease40Prostata patología40275OTOOTO 0149-2918Clin. ther.348Development of a Population-Based Cost-Effectiveness Model of Chronic Graft-Versus-Host Disease in SpainCRESPO (Carlos)PEREZ-SIMON (José Anton)MANUEL RODRIGUEZ (Jose)SIERRA (Jordi)BROSA (Max)Statistics Department, University of BarcelonaBarcelonaESP1 aut.Oblikue ConsultingBarcelonaESP1 aut.5 aut.Haematology Service, Instituto de Biomedicina de Sevilla (IBIS), Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocío/ CSIC/Universidad de SevillaSevilleESP2 aut.HE&R Department, Director EMEA Therakos (Johnson & Johnson Company)MadridESP3 aut.Haematology Service, Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant PauBarcelonaESP4 aut.1774-17872012ENGINIST183533540005083660101100000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.65 ref.12-0347143PAClinical therapeuticsUSABackground: Chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGvHD) is the leading cause of late nonrelapse mortality (transplant-related mortality) after hematopoietic stem cell transplant. Given that there are a wide range of treatment options for cGvHD, assessment of the associated costs and efficacy can help clinicians and health care providers allocate health care resources more efficiently. Objective: The purpose of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP) compared with rituximab (Rmb) and with imatinib (Imt) in patients with cGvHD at 5 years from the perspective of the Spanish National Health System. Methods: The model assessed the incremental costeffectiveness/utility ratio of ECP versus Rmb or Imt for 1000 hypothetical patients by using microsimulation cost-effectiveness techniques. Model probabilities were obtained from the literature. Treatment pathways and adverse events were evaluated taking clinical opinion and published reports into consideration. Local data on costs (2010 Euros) and health care resources utilization were validated by the clinical authors. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of the model. Results: The greater efficacy of ECP resulted in a gain of 0.011 to 0.024 quality-adjusted life-year in the first year and 0.062 to 0.094 at year 5 compared with Rmb or Imt. The results showed that the higher acquisition cost of ECP versus Imt was compensated for at 9 months by greater efficacy; this higher cost was partially compensated for (<euro sign>517) by year 5 versus Rmb. After 9 months, ECP was dominant (cheaper and more effective) compared with Imt. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ECP versus Rmb was <euro sign>29,646 per life-year gained and <euro sign>24,442 per quality-adjusted life-year gained at year 2.5. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the results. The main study limitation was that to assess relative treatment effects, only small studies were available for indirect comparison. Conclusion: ECP as a third-line therapy for cGvHD is a more cost-effective strategy than Rmb or Imt.002B02Développement01Development01Desarrollo01Santé publique02Public health02Salud pública02Economie santé03Health economy03Economía salud03Analyse coût efficacité04Cost efficiency analysis04Análisis costo eficacia04Modèle05Models05Modelo05Chronique06Chronic06Crónico06Maladie du greffon contre l'hôte07Graft versus host disease07Enfermedad injerto huesped07Cellule souche08Stem cell08Célula primitiva08Cellule hématopoïétique09Hematopoietic cell09Célula hematopoyética09Homogreffe10Homograft10Homoinjerto10EspagneNG11SpainNG11EspañaNG11Greffe12Graft12Injerto12Photophérèse13Photopheresis13Fotoferesis13Traitement23Treatment23Tratamiento23EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGImmunopathologie37Immunopathology37Inmunopatología37Photothérapie38Phototherapy38Fototerapia38268OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2252Evolution of the Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet: Anticipating Adoption of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Across the U.S. FleetEnergy and Global Climate Change 2011PAUL (Binny M.)KOCKELMAN (Kara M.)MUSTI (Sashank)Ernest Cockrell Jr. Hall, and K. M. Kockelman, 6.9 Ernest Cockrell Jr. Hall, University of Texas at AustinAustin, TX 78712-1076USA1 aut.2 aut.Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at AustinAustin, TX 78712-1076USA1 aut.2 aut.Cambridge Systematics, 555 12th Street, Suite 1600Oakland, CA 94607USA3 aut.107-1172011ENGINIST10459B3540005086826501400000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.49 ref.12-0334917PATransportation research recordUSAWith environmental degradation and energy security as serious concerns, it is important to anticipate how vehicle ownership and usage patterns can change under different policies and contexts. This work ascertains the acquisition, disposal, and use patterns of personal vehicles of a synthetic population over time and relies on microsimulation to anticipate fleet composition, usage, and greenhouse gas emissions under different settings. Twenty-five-year simulations predict the highest market share for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), hybrid electric vehicles, and smart cars and the greatest reductions in carbon emissions under an increased gasoline price ($7/gal). Results under a &dquot;feebate&dquot; policy scenario (where fees apply to low-fuel-economy vehicles, and rebates rise with fuel economies above a threshold) indicated a shift toward fuel-efficient vehicles but with vehicle miles traveled (VMT) rising, thanks to lower driving costs. Excepting the low PHEV price and feebate policy simulations, all other scenarios predicted a lower fleet VMT value. The high-density scenario (job and household densities quadrupled) resulted in the lowest vehicle ownership levels and lower VMT values and emissions. The low-PHEV-price scenario resulted in higher shares of PHEVs but negligible impacts from greenhouse gas emissions. Adoption and widespread use of plug-in vehicles will depend on marketing, competitive pricing, government incentives, reliable driving-range reports, and charging infrastructure. Though just 29 % of survey respondents stated support for a (specific) feebate policy, 35% indicated an interest in purchasing a PHEV if it cost just $6,000 more than its gasoline counterpart.001D15A001D16C04CTransports02Transportation02Transportes02Flotte03Fleet03Véhicule hybride04Hybrid vehicle04Vehículo híbrido04Véhicule électrique05Electric vehicle05Vehículo eléctrico05Impact environnement06Environment impact06Impacto medio ambiente06Gaz effet serre07Greenhouse gas07Gas efecto invernadero07Emission gaz08Gas emission08Emisión gas08Evolution09Evolution09Evolución09Véhicule utilitaire10Commercial vehicle10Vehículo utilitario10Etats-UnisNG11United StatesNG11Estados UnidosNG11Analyse donnée12Data analysis12Análisis datos12Statistique13Statistics13Estadística13Modèle14Models14Modelo14Critère sélection15Selection criterion15Criterio selección15Type véhicule16Vehicle type16Tipo vehículo16Simulation17Simulation17Simulación17Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG254PSIPSI 0028-4793NEJMAGN. Engl. j. med.3677Quality-of-Life Effects of Prostate-Specific Antigen ScreeningHEIJNSDIJK (Eveline A. M.)WEVER (Elisabeth M.)AUVINEN (Anssi)HUGOSSON (Jonas)CIATTO (Stefano)NELEN (Vera)KWIATKOWSKI (Maciej)VILLERS (Arnauld)PAEZ (Alvaro)MOSS (Sue M.)ZAPPA (Marco)TAMMELA (Teuvo L. J.)MAKINEN (Tuukka)CARLSSON (Sigrid)KORFAGE (Ida J.)ESSINK-BOT (Marie-Louise)OTTO (Suzie J.)DRAISMA (Gerrit)BANGMA (Chris H.)ROOBOL (Monique J.)SCHRÖDER (Fritz H.)DE KONING (Harry J.)Departments of Public Health, Erasmus Medical CenterRotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.15 aut.17 aut.18 aut.22 aut.Urology, Erasmus Medical CenterRotterdamNLD19 aut.20 aut.21 aut.Department of Public Health, Academic Medical Center, University of AmsterdamAmsterdamNLD16 aut.Tampere School of Health Sciences, University of TampereTampereFIN3 aut.Department of Urology, Tampere University Hospital, University of TampereTampereFIN12 aut.Department of Surgery, Seinajoki Central HospitalSeinajokiFIN13 aut.International Agency for Research on CancerLyonFRA3 aut.Department of Urology, Centre Hospitalier Regional UniversitaireLilleFRA8 aut.Department of Urology, Sahlgrenska University HospitalGothenburgSWE4 aut.Department of Diagnostic Medical Imaging, Institute for Cancer PreventionFlorenceITA14 aut.Unit of Epidemiology, Institute for Cancer PreventionFlorenceITA11 aut.Provinciaal Instituut voor HygieneAntwerpBEL6 aut.Department of Urology, Kantonsspital AarauAarauCHE7 aut.Department of Urology, Hospital de FuenlabradaMadridESP9 aut.Centre for Cancer Prevention, Queen Mary University of LondonLondonGBR10 aut.Department of Surgery (Urology), Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer CenterNew YorkUSA14 aut.595-6052012ENGINIST60133540005044263200300000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.54 ref.12-0333917PAThe New England journal of medicineUSABACKGROUND After 11 years of follow-up, the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) reported a 29% reduction in prostate-cancer mortality among men who underwent screening for prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels. However, the extent to which harms to quality of life resulting from overdiagnosis and treatment counterbalance this benefit is uncertain. METHODS On the basis of ERSPC follow-up data, we used Microsimulation Screening Analysis (MISCAN) to predict the number of prostate cancers, treatments, deaths, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained after the introduction of PSA screening. Various screening strategies, efficacies, and quality-of-life assumptions were modeled. RESULTS Per 1000 men of all ages who were followed for their entire life span, we predicted that annual screening of men between the ages of 55 and 69 years would result in nine fewer deaths from prostate cancer (28% reduction), 14 fewer men receiving palliative therapy (35% reduction), and a total of 73 life-years gained (average, 8.4 years per prostate-cancer death avoided). The number of QALYs that were gained was 56 (range, -21 to 97), a reduction of 23% from unadjusted life-years gained. To prevent one prostate-cancer death, 98 men would need to be screened and 5 cancers would need to be detected. Screening of all men between the ages of 55 and 74 would result in more life-years gained (82) but the same number of QALYs (56). CONCLUSIONS The benefit of PSA screening was diminished by loss of QALYs owing to postdiagnosis long-term effects. Longer follow-up data from both the ERSPC and quality-of-life analyses are essential before universal recommendations regarding screening can be made. (Funded by the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development and others.).002B01002B30A03Qualité de vie02Quality of life02Calidad vida02Homme03Human03Hombre03Antigène spécifique prostate05Prostate specific antigen05Antigeno específico prostata05Marqueur tumoral06Tumoral marker06Marcador tumoral06Prostate08Prostate08Prostata08Dépistage09Medical screening09Descubrimiento09Médecine11Medicine11Medicina11Appareil urogénital37Urogenital system37Aparato urogenital37254OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2249Correlated Parameters in Driving Behavior Models: Car-Following Example and Implications for Traffic MicrosimulationTraffic Flow Theory 2011: Simulation ModelingKIM (Jiwon)MAHMASSANI (Hani S.)Transportation Center, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northwestern University, 600 Foster StreetEvanston, IL 60208USA1 aut.2 aut.62-772011ENGINIST10459B3540005086509700900000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.18 ref.12-0332710PATransportation research recordUSABehavioral parameters in car following and other models of driving behavior are expected to be correlated. An investigation is conducted into the effect of ignoring correlations in three parameters of car-following models on the resulting movement and properties of a simulated heterogeneous vehicle traffic stream. For each model specification, parameters are calibrated for the entire sample of individual drivers with Next Generation Simulation trajectory data. Factor analysis is performed to understand the pattern of relationships between parameters on the basis of calibrated data. Correlation coefficients have been used to show statistically significant correlation between the parameters. Simulation experiments are performed with vehicle parameter sets generated with and without considering such correlation. First, parameter values are sampled from the empirical mass functions, and simulated results show significant difference in output measures when parameter correlation is captured (versus ignored). Next, parameters are sampled under the assumption that they follow the multivariate normal distribution. Results suggest that the use of parametric distribution with known correlation structure may not sufficiently reduce the error due to ignoring correlation if the underlying assumption does not hold for both marginal and joint distributions.001D15C001D15ATrafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Conduite véhicule03Vehicle driving03Conducción vehículo03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Modèle comportement05Behavior model05Modelo comportamiento05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Modèle microscopique07Microscopic model07Modelo microscópico07Corrélation08Correlation08Correlación08Exemple09Example09Ejemplo09Analyse factorielle10Factor analysis10Análisis factorial10Méthode empirique11Empirical method11Método empírico11Durée trajet12Travel time12Duración trayecto12Simulation13Simulation13Simulación13Suivi de véhiculeCD96Car followingCD96254PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2249Modeling Driver Behavior at Freeway-Ramp MergesTraffic Flow Theory 2011: Simulation ModelingKONDYLI (Alexandra)ELEFTERIADOU (Lily)ANKA Consulting, Inc., North Plastira 79, North Erythraia 14671AthensGRC1 aut.University of Florida, 365 Weil Hall, P.O. Box 116580Gainesville, FL 32611USA2 aut.29-372011ENGINIST10459B3540005086509700500000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.23 ref.12-0332708PATransportation research recordUSAFreeway-ramp merging segments are important components of freeway facilities. The composite behavior of acceleration and gap acceptance of the merging traffic as well as the cooperative behavior of the freeway traffic can result in conflicts and trigger congestion. The goal of this research was to develop a ramp-merging model that considered the merging process as perceived by drivers and to investigate the contribution of individual drivers' merging behavior to the breakdown event. Focus group meetings were conducted, and drivers' merging behavior was observed in in-vehicle experiments. The data were used to develop a gap-acceptance model under different merging conditions and a model of driver behavior that predicted vehicle interactions on the freeway with merging vehicles, considering different driver types. A merging turbulence model that evaluated the effect of vehicle interactions on traffic flow also is presented. Study findings can be used to refine existing microsimulation models, realistically replicate freeway flow breakdown, and provide insight into the triggers of the breakdown of freeway flow.001D15C001D15ATrafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Autoroute03Freeway03Autopista03Rampe accès04Access ramp04Rampa acceso04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Comportement06Behavior06Conducta06Accélération07Acceleration07Aceleración07Turbulence08Turbulence08Turbulencia08Interaction09Interaction09Interacción09Véhicule routier10Road vehicle10Vehículo caminero10Décélération11Deceleration11Desaceleración11Recommandation12Recommendation12Recomendación12254PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2239Same-Day Mode Choice Modeling with Household Vehicle Usage Simulation in Developing CountriesDeveloping Countries 2011XIA WANYI ZHANGJIN (Peter J.)BIN RANWEI WANGJUN CHENDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, and School of Transportation, Southeast University, Si Pai Lou 2Nanjing 210096CHN1 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-MadisonMadison, WI 53706USA2 aut.3 aut.School of Transportation, Southeast University, Si Pai Lou 2Nanjing 210096CHN4 aut.5 aut.6 aut.23-332011ENGINIST10459B3540005086502200400000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.22 ref.12-0328624PATransportation research recordUSAThis paper presents a model of same-day mode choice at the household level for developing countries. A rule-based algorithm combining classical random utility maximization theory within a microsimulation framework is used. Modeling of private vehicle usage (including vehicle allocation and sharing use in household) is an essential component of this model because vehicle deficiency is common in developing countries. This model consists of four steps: (a) the allocation of private vehicles (car, motorcycle, and bicycle) in a household, (b) the mode choice of private vehicle users specified in the first step, (c) vehicle sharing in a household, and (d) the mode choice of individuals who do not use private vehicles. The adaptability of the model was improved by simulations on car, motorcycle, and bicycle usage. Discrepancies in the mode choice behavior of household members with and without the use of private vehicles are captured in this paper through different modeling methods. The rule-based algorithm, binary logit model, multinomial logit model, and mixed logit model were applied together in this four-step model. Travel diary survey data from 2007 from Bengbu, China, were used as an example for the validation test of this model. The results demonstrate that this model can accurately predict the mode choice of all household members in an internally self-consistent and theoretically credible manner for a midsize city in China. The proposed model is highly conducive to travel demand forecasting and transportation policy making.001D15A001D15CTransports02Transportation02Transportes02Pays en développement03Developing countries03Países en desarrollo03Choix modal04Modal choice04Elección modal04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Ménage06Household06Familia06Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Analyse donnée08Data analysis08Análisis datos08Etude cas09Case study09Estudio caso09Enquête10Survey10Encuesta10ChineNG11ChinaNG11ChinaNG11Trafic routier12Road traffic12Tráfico carretera12Modèle logit13Logit model13Modelo logit13Modèle prévision14Forecast model14Modelo previsión14AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG254PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2237Modeling Highway Safety and Simulation in Rainy WeatherSafety Data, Analysis, and Evaluation 2011. Volume 2SOYOUNG JUNGXIAO QINNOYCE (David A.)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, South Dakota State University, 148 Crothers Engineering HallBrookings, SD 57007USA2 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1415 Engineering DriveMadison, WI 53706-1691USA3 aut.Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 291 Daehak-roYuseong-gu Daejeon 305-701KOR1 aut.134-1432011ENGINIST10459B3540005097608401500000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.37 ref.12-0327918PATransportation research recordUSAResearch was done to examine comprehensively the safety impact of rainy weather conditions on multivehicle crash frequency and severity and to validate the impact on traffic operations through microsimulation modeling. Three primary tasks were performed to meet these objectives. For weather data processing, available data were used to estimate the following factors: rainfall intensity, water film depth, and deficiency of car-following distance. For statistical modeling, negative binomial regression was used for crash frequency, and sequential logistic regression was tested with forward and backward formats for crash severity. A better format for the crash severity estimation was determined by combining all model performance measures. VISSIM was used to design traffic simulation models to reflect the effect of weather on traffic operation with five scenarios of the following weather-sensitive parameter adjustments: desired deceleration rate function, desired speed distribution, and headway time. As weather-related determinants, daily rainfall and wind speed were found to be statistically significant to crash frequency and severity estimations, respectively. VISSIM provided the most similar traffic data to the observed data when both desired speed distribution and deceleration rate function were adjusted. Statistical modeling in this research can be used to examine highway safety in rainy weather and to provide quantitative support on implementing road weather safety management strategies. Correspondingly, the adjustments of weather-sensitive traffic parameters will be the preliminary step to measure the strategy efficiencies through safety surrogate indexes in traffic simulation.001D15C001D14O02295Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Sécurité trafic03Traffic safety03Seguridad tráfico03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Temps météorologique05Weather05Tiempo meteorológico05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Fréquence07Frequency07Frecuencia07Accident circulation08Traffic accident08Accidente tráfico08Pluie09Rain09Lluvia09Modèle statistique10Statistical model10Modelo estadístico10Traitement donnée11Data processing11Tratamiento datos11Base de données12Database12Base dato12WisconsinNG13WisconsinNG13WisconsínNG13Indice gravité15Severity score15Indicio gravedad15Sécurité routièreCD96Road safetyCD96Seguridad vialCD96Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG247PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2237Improved Time-to-Collision Definition for Simulating Traffic Conflicts on Truck-Only InfrastructureSafety Data, Analysis, and Evaluation 2011. Volume 2BACHMANN (Chris)ROORDA (Matthew J.)ABDULHAI (Baher)Department of Civil Engineering, University of TorontoToronto, Ontario M5S 1 A4CAN1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.31-402011ENGINIST10459B3540005097608400400000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.20 ref.12-0327913PATransportation research recordUSATransportation agencies have traditionally relied on historical crash records as the primary measure to evaluate the safety of roadways. The infrequent and sporadic occurrence of accidents and the long period required to collect accident data have led to the use of surrogate safety measures. The use of microsimulation modeling for conflict analysis has been popularized for evaluating experimental changes to existing road networks. Previous freeway studies have used a simplified time-to-collision definition, which produces unrealistic conflict situations. The definition included situations with no collision path, such as when two vehicles were traveling at the same speed or when the leading vehicle was speeding away from the following vehicle. A revised conflict definition is developed to address these issues and is then contrasted with the simplified definition used in earlier studies. An investigation of acceleration rates demonstrates that the revised approach retains the meaningful conflicts produced by the previous definition but eliminates the situations that are unlikely to be conflicts. This revised conflict definition is used to investigate the evaluation of a truck-only highway in the greater Toronto, Ontario, Canada, area to observe the effects on traffic conflicts. In general, it was found that although providing a separate highway for trucks did reduce truck-related conflicts, car lane-change conflicts increased because of the cars' increased maneuverability and presence on the truck-free highway.001D15C001D14O02295Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Sécurité trafic03Traffic safety03Seguridad tráfico03Analyse donnée04Data analysis04Análisis datos04Accident circulation05Traffic accident05Accidente tráfico05Poids lourd06Heavy truck06Peso pesado06Voie réservée07Priority lane07Vía prioritaria07Autoroute08Freeway08Autopista08Conflit09Conflict09Conflicto09Méthode calcul10Computing method10Método cálculo10Modélisation11Modeling11Modelización11Modèle simulation12Simulation model12Modelo simulación12Etude comparative13Comparative study13Estudio comparativo13Etude cas14Case study14Estudio caso14CanadaNG15CanadaNG15CanadáNG15Temps avant la collisionCD96Time to collisionCD96Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG247PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2236Conflict Models for Single-Lane Roundabout Slip Lanes from Microsimulation: Development and ValidationSafety Data, Analysis, and Evaluation 2011. Volume 1AL-GHANDOUR (Majed N.)SCHROEDER (Bastian J.)WILLIAMS (Billy M.)RASDORF (William J.)North Carolina Department of Transportation, Program Development Branch, 1 South Wilmington StreetRaleigh, NC 27601-1453USA1 aut.Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State University, Centennial Campus Box 8601Raleigh, NC 27695-8601USA2 aut.Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Campus Box 7908Raleigh, NCUSA3 aut.4 aut.92-1012011ENGINIST10459B3540005086500601100000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.17 ref.12-0327100PATransportation research recordUSAConflict patterns at single-lane roundabouts with and without slip lanes were evaluated and compared through VISSIM, the microscopic simulation program for multimodal traffic flow modeling, and surrogate safety assessment model (SSAM) analysis. From a sensitivity analysis of several volume distribution scenarios of the percentage of turning traffic, five zone-based conflict prediction models were developed through the use of Poisson regression. The models captured simulated conflict differences that resulted from the addition of a right-turn slip lane. The models were evaluated under three exit control scenarios (yield, stop, and free-flow merge). With SSAM analysis, the models predicted the occurrence of conflicts for roundabout zones with different R-squared values, which ranged from .69 to .97. The models were compared with national and international crash prediction models for single-lane roundabouts and were further validated by actual crash data from 10 single-lane roundabouts in the city of Carmel, Indiana. The number of conflicts for a single-lane roundabout was predicted as a function of approach entry, circulation, and slip lane traffic flows and was determined to be sensitive to the slip lane exit type. Results confirmed that conflicts in the merge area were more frequent than in the roundabout approach area and that the installation of a free-flow slip lane exit type reduced overall conflict occurrence. The results demonstrated the usefulness of SSAM analysis for evaluating roundabout safety and developing an empirical relationship between simulated conflicts and field-observed crashes.001D15C001D14O02295Sécurité trafic02Traffic safety02Seguridad tráfico02Trafic routier03Road traffic03Tráfico carretera03Carrefour giratoire04Roundabout04Bifurcación giratoria04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Conflit07Conflict07Conflicto07Analyse donnée08Data analysis08Análisis datos08Statistique descriptive09Descriptive statistics09Estadística descriptiva09Modèle prévision10Forecast model10Modelo previsión10247PSIPSI 0165-0009CLCHDXClim. change109SUP1Simulating the impacts of climate change, prices and population on California's residential electricity consumptionCalifornia Second Assessment: New Climate Change Impact Studies and Implications for AdaptationAUFTHAMMER (Maximilian)AROONRUENGSAWAT (Anin)CAYAN (Daniel R.)ed.MOSER (Susanne)ed.FRANCO (Guido)ed.HANEMANN (Michael)ed.JONES (Myoung-Ae)ed.UC Berkeley ARE/IAS, 207 Giannini HallBerkeley, CA 94720-3310USA1 aut.Faculty of Economics, Thammasat UniversityBangkokTHA2 aut.Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of CaliforniaSan Diego, La Jolla, CAUSA1 aut.Stanford UniversitySanta Cruz, CAUSA2 aut.Economics Department, Arizona State UniversityTempe, AZUSA4 aut.Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of CaliforniaSan diego, Sacramento, CAUSA5 aut.U.S. Geological surveyLa Jolla, CAUSA1 aut.2 aut.Suzanne Moser Research & ConsultingSanta Cruz, CAUSAS191-S2102011ENGINIST172183540005088182100900000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.12-0290357PAClimatic changeDEUThis study simulates the impacts of higher temperatures resulting from anthropogenic climate change on residential electricity consumption for California. Flexible temperature response functions are estimated by climate zone, which allow for differential effects of days in different temperature bins on households' electricity consumption. The estimation uses a comprehensive household level dataset of electricity bills for California's three investor-owned utilities (Pacific Gas and Electric, San Diego Gas and Electric, and Southern California Edison). The results suggest that the temperature response varies greatly across climate zones. Simulation results using a downscaled version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research global circulation model suggest that holding population constant, total consumption for the households considered may increase by up to 55% by the end of the century. The study further simulates the impacts of higher electricity prices and different scenarios of population growth. Finally, simulations were conducted consistent with higher adoption of cooling equipment in areas which are not yet saturated, as well as gains in efficiency due to aggressive energy efficiency policies.001D06A01C4001D06A01A230Consommation électricité01Electric power consumption01Consumo electricidad01Secteur domestique02Residential sector02Sector doméstico02Changement climatique03Climate change03Cambio climático03Prix04Price04Precio04Electricité05Electricity05Electricidad05Accroissement population06Population growth06Población crecimiento06Long terme07Long term07Largo plazo07Simulation08Simulation08Simulación08Modélisation09Modeling09Modelización09Modèle économétrique10Econometric model10Modelo econométrico10Etude cas11Case study11Estudio caso11CalifornieNG12CaliforniaNG12CaliforniaNG12Climatologie dynamiqueDynamical climatologyClimatología dinámicaEtats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG219 0012-9682ECMTA7Econometrica803TESTING FOR SMOOTH STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN TIME SERIES MODELS VIA NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSIONCHEN (Bin)HONG (Yongmiao)Dept. of Economics, University of RochesterRochester, NY 14627USADept. of Economics and Dept. of Statistical Science, Cornell UniversityIthaca, NY 14850USAWang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE) & MOE Key Laboratory of Econometrics, Xiamen UniversityXiamen 361005CHN1157-11832012ENGINIST20693540005052989100700000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.3/412-0286899PAEconometricaGBRChecking parameter stability of econometric models is a long-standing problem. Almost all existing structural change tests in econometrics are designed to detect abrupt breaks. Little attention has been paid to smooth structural changes, which may be more realistic in economics. We propose a consistent test for smooth structural changes as well as abrupt structural breaks with known or unknown change points. The idea is to estimate smooth time-varying parameters by local smoothing and compare the fitted values of the restricted constant parameter model and the unrestricted time-varying parameter model. The test is asymptotically pivotal and does not require prior information about the alternative. A simulation study highlights the merits of the proposed test relative to a variety of popular tests for structural changes. In an application, we strongly reject the stability of univariate and multivariate stock return prediction models in the postwar and post-oil-shocks periods.001A02H02N2001A02H02M001A02H02H001A02H02KMéthode statistique01Statistical method01Método estadístico01Processus stochastique02Stochastic process02Proceso estocástico02Autocorrélation03Autocorrelation03Autocorrelación03Estimation statistique04Statistical estimation04Estimación estadística04Estimation non paramétrique05Non parametric estimation05Estimación no paramétrica05Test statistique17Statistical test17Test estadístico17Modèle structure18Structural model18Modelo estructura18Série temporelle19Time series19Serie temporal19Modèle régression20Regression model20Modelo regresión20Stabilité numérique21Numerical stability21Estabilidad numérica21Modèle économétrique22Econometric model22Modelo econométrico22Econométrie23Econometrics23Econometría23Plan expérience24Experimental design24Plan experiencia24Sciences économiques25Economic sciences25Ciencias económicas25Point changement26Change point26Punto cambio26Temps local27Local time27Tiempo local27Information a priori28Prior information28Información a priori28Simulation statistique29Statistical simulation29Simulación estadística29Analyse multivariable30Multivariate analysis30Análisis multivariable30Théorie prédiction31Prediction theory31Noyau(mathématiques)32Kernels32Méthode noyau33Kernel method33Método núcleo3362M10INC7062G08INC7162P20INC7262K99INC7305BxxINC7460J55INC7535L67INC76Régression non paramétriqueCD96Nonparametric regressionCD96Estimate régulièreCD97Smooth estimateCD97Paramètre lissageCD98Smoothing parameterCD98Rentabilité boursièreCD99Stock returnCD99212OTOOTO 0161-6420OPHTDGOphthalmology : (Rochester MN)1197The Development of a Decision Analytic Model of Changes in Mean Deviation in People with Glaucoma: The COA ModelKYMES (Steven M.)LAMBERT (Dennis L.)LEE (Paul P.)MUSCH (David C.)SIEGFRIED (Carla J.)KOTAK (Sameer V.)STWALLEY (Dustin L.)FAIN (Joel)JOHNSON (Chris)GORDON (Mae O.)Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, Washington University School of MedicineSt. Louis, MissouriUSA1 aut.2 aut.5 aut.7 aut.10 aut.Center for Economic Evaluation in Medicine, Washington UniversitySt. Louis, MissouriUSA1 aut.2 aut.7 aut.Center for Health Policy, Washington UniversitySt. Louis, MissouriUSA1 aut.Department of Ophthalmology, Duke UniversityDurham, North CarolinaUSA3 aut.Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, University of MichiganAnn Arbor, MichiganUSA4 aut.Pfizer IncNew York, New YorkUSA6 aut.8 aut.Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, University of IowaIowa City, IowaUSA9 aut.1367-13742012ENGINIST189143540005008193501100000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.23 ref.12-0279396PAOphthalmology : (Rochester, MN)USAPurpose: To create and validate a statistical model predicting progression of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) assessed by loss of visual field as measured in mean deviation (MD) using 3 landmark studies of glaucoma progression and treatment. Design: A Markov decision analytic model using patient level data described longitudinal MD changes over 7 years. Participants: Patient-level data from the Collaborative Initial Glaucoma Treatment Study (n = 607), the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS; n ₌ 148; only those who developed POAG in the first 5 years of OHTS) and Advanced Glaucoma Intervention Study (n = 591), the COA model. Methods: We developed a Markov model with transition matrices stratified by current MD, age, race, and intraocular pressure categories and used a microsimulation approach to estimate change in MD over 7 years. Internal validation compared model prediction for 7 years to actual MD for COA participants. External validation used a cohort of glaucoma patients drawn from university clinical practices. Main Outcome Measures: Change in visual field as measured in MD in decibels (dB). Results: Regressing the actual MD against the predicted produced an R² of 0.68 for the right eye and 0.63 for the left. The model predicted ending MD for right eyes of 65% of participants and for 63% of left eyes within 3 dB of actual results at 7 years. In external validation the model had an R² of 0.79 in the right eye and 0.77 in the left at 5 years. Conclusions: The COA model is a validated tool for clinicians, patients, and health policy makers seeking to understand longitudinal changes in MD in people with glaucoma. Financial Disclosure(s): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references.002B09N002B09JGlaucome01Glaucoma (eye)01Glaucoma (ojo)01Développement09Development09Desarrollo09Modèle10Models10Modelo10Déviation11Deviation11Desviación11GlaucomaNS12GlaucomaNS12GlaucomaNS12Ophtalmologie13Ophthalmology13Oftalmología13CiliataNSCiliataNSCiliataNSProtozoaNSProtozoaNSProtozoaNSPathologie de l'oeil37Eye disease37Ojo patología37212OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2218Innovative Operating Solutions for Bus Rapid Transit Through a Congested Segment of San Jose, CaliforniaTransit 2011. Volume 3ISWALT (Michael)WONG (Corey)CONNOLLY (Kevin)Arup, 560 Mission Street, 7th FloorSan Francisco, CA 94103USA1 aut.2 aut.Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority, 3331 North First Street, Building B2San Jose, CA 95134USA3 aut.27-382011ENGINIST10459B3540005086084100400000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.4 ref.12-0228763PATransportation research recordUSAThe Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority in California recently developed a strategic plan for bus rapid transit (BRT) to establish a framework for BRT implementation. Stevens Creek Boulevard, an important east-west thoroughfare linking the California cities of San Jose and Cupertino, was one of three corridors selected for BRT service. To ensure the operating and ridership objectives along the Stevens Creek corridor, BRT must maintain adequate travel speeds and provide a convenient station location along the Valley Fair segment west of downtown San Jose. Meeting these objectives would be a challenge because the segment is highly congested and right-of-way constrained. Major shopping centers, existing land uses, and an Interstate freeway interchange are all factors that contribute to the operational challenges along the Valley Fair segment. These factors also limit any roadway widening and reconfiguration required to provide sufficient space for dedicated BRT lanes and station platforms. To provide some form of transit priority and a convenient BRT station at Valley Fair, a single reversible bus lane was proposed. This paper discusses the feasibility of a single reversible lane and key elements that led to a preferred configuration and operating plan. A range of options, including various station configurations and operating strategies, is evaluated. A microsimulation analysis of the options shows that a single reversible lane can generate significant operating benefits for BRT while not significantly affecting mixed-flow traffic. This paper and its results should encourage cities to consider single-lane reversible bus ways along constrained segments as part of a strategy to implement premium BRT service.001D15C001D15BTransport voyageur02Passenger transportation02Transporte pasajero02Transport routier03Road transportation03Transporte por carretera03Autobus04Bus04Autobus04CalifornieNG05CaliforniaNG05CaliforniaNG05Gestion trafic06Traffic management06Gestión tráfico06Congestion trafic07Traffic congestion07Congestión tráfico07Innovation08Innovation08Innovación08Planification stratégique09Strategic planning09Planificación estratégica09Méthode alternative10Alternative method10Método alternativo10Expérience exploitation11Operating experience11Experiencia explotación11Recommandation12Recommendation12Recomendación12Bus à haut niveau de serviceCD96Bus rapid transitCD96Autobús exprésCD96Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG177PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2216Integrated Multimodel Evaluation of Transit Bus Emissions in Toronto, CanadaTransit 2011. Volume 1LAU (Judith)HATZOPOULOU (Marianne)WAHBA (Mohamed M.)MILLER (Eric J.)University of Toronto, 35 Saint George StreetToronto, Ontario M5S 1 A4CAN1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics, McGill University, 817 Sherbrooke Street West, Room 492Montreal, Quebec H3A 2K6CAN2 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, University of British Columbia, 6250 Applied Science LaneVancouver, British Columbia V6T 1 Z4CAN3 aut.Director Cities Centre, University of Toronto, 455 Spadina Avenue, Suite 400Toronto, Ontario, M5S 2G8CAN4 aut.1-92011ENGINIST10459B3540005086822400100000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.31 ref.12-0226167PATransportation research recordUSAThis paper investigates transit bus emissions in the city of Toronto, Ontario, Canada, by linking the results of a microsimulation transit assignment model, MILATRAS (microsimulation learning-based approach to transit assignment), with emission factors derived from Mobile6.2C. Emissions were estimated at the level of individual buses during idling conditions at bus stops and on roadway links between stops during the morning peak period. The busiest routes were associated with the highest total emissions as a result of a combination of high ridership and lower speeds; this association confirmed the common wisdom that newer, low-emitting buses should be first allocated to these routes. The highest dwell emissions occurred at intermodal transfer stations (bus to subway and vice versa). On a passenger kilometer basis, the highest-emitting routes were not the busiest, but rather were those with the lowest ridership. In fact, the highest emissions per passenger kilometer were associated with the Airport Rocket, a route that provided service to the airport and was characterized by low ridership in the morning peak period. On average, bus trips in Toronto were about three times more fuel efficient than were private car trips and created 20 times less carbon monoxide pollution. The effects of changing fuel types and fleet age on transit bus emissions were assessed. Implications for bus operations are discussed relative to fleet allocation to minimize total emissions.001D15C001D16C04CAutobus02Bus02Autobus02CanadaNG03CanadaNG03CanadáNG03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Emission gaz05Gas emission05Emisión gas05Trafic routier urbain06Urban road traffic06Tráfico vial urbano06Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Transport public08Public transportation08Transporte público08Affectation trafic09Traffic assignment09Afectación tráfico09Scénario10Script10Argumento10Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG177PSIPSI 0049-4488TNPRDNTransportation386Large-scale application of MILATRAS: case study of the Toronto transit network : Multi-Dimensional Advances in Travel ModelingWAHBA (Mohamed)SHALABY (Amer)Department of Civil Engineering. University of British Columbia, 6250 Applied Science LaneVancouver, BC V6T IZ4CAN1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering. University of Toronto, 35 St. George StreetToronto, ON M5S IA4CAN2 aut.889-9082011ENGINIST159853540005078601200300000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.12-0216279PATransportationDEUThis paper documents the efforts to operationalize the conceptual framework of MIcrosimulation Learning-based Approach to TRansit Assignment (MILATRAS) and its component models of departure time and path choices. It presents a large-scale real-world application, namely the multi-modal transit network of Toronto which is operated by the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC). This large-scale network is represented by over 500 branches with more than 10,000 stops. About 332,000 passenger-agents are modelled to represent the demand for the TTC in the AM peak period. A learning-based departure time and path choice model was adopted using the concept of mental models for the modelling of the transit assignment problem. The choice model parameters were calibrated such that the entropy of the simulated route loads was optimized with reference to the observed route loads, and validated with individual choices. A Parallel Genetic Algorithm engine was used for the parameter calibration process. The modelled route loads, based on the calibrated parameters, greatly approximate the distribution underlying the observed loads. 75% of the exact sequence of transfer point choices were correctly predicted by the off-stop/on-stop choice mechanism. The model predictability of the exact sequence of route transfers was about 60%. In this application, transit passengers were assumed to plan their transit trip based on their experience with the transportation network; with no prior (or perfect) knowledge of service performance.001D15BTransport public02Public transportation02Transporte público02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Apprentissage04Learning04Aprendizaje04Demande transport05Transport demand05Demanda transporte05Algorithme génétique06Genetic algorithm06Algoritmo genético06Application07Application07Aplicación07Echelle grande08Large scale08Escala grande08Etude cas09Case study09Estudio caso09Réseau transport10Transportation network10Red transporte10Affectation trafic11Traffic assignment11Afectación tráfico11CanadaNG12CanadaNG12CanadáNG12Etalonnage13Calibration13Contraste13Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG170PSIPSI 1055-9965CEBPE4Cancer epidemiol. biomark. prev.215Contribution of Screening and Survival Differences to Racial Disparities in Colorectal Cancer RatesLANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris)KUNTZ (Karen M.)KNUDSEN (Amy B.)VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein)ZAUBER (Ann G.)JEMAL (Ahmedin)Department of Public Health, Erasmus MCRotterdamNLD1 aut.4 aut.Division of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, University of MinnesotaMinneapolis, MinnesotaUSA2 aut.Institute for Technology Assessment, Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General HospitalBoston, MassachusettsUSA3 aut.Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer CenterNew York, New YorkUSA5 aut.Surveillance and Health Policy Research, American Cancer SocietyAtlanta, GeorgiaUSA6 aut.728-7362012ENGINIST266373540005098730500600000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.62 ref.12-0211111PACancer epidemiology, biomarkers & preventionUSABackground: Considerable disparities exist in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality rates between blacks and whites in the United States. We estimated how much of these disparities could be explained by differences in CRC screening and stage-specific relative CRC survival. Methods: We used the MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model to estimate CRC incidence and mortality rates in blacks, aged 50 years and older, from 1975 to 2007 assuming they had: (i) the same trends in screening rates as whites instead of observed screening rates (incidence and mortality); (ii) the same trends in stage-specific relative CRC survival rates as whites instead of observed (mortality only); and (iii) a combination of both. The racial disparities in CRC incidence and mortality rates attributable to differences in screening and/or stage-specific relative CRC survival were then calculated by comparing rates from these scenarios to the observed black rates. Results: Differences in screening accounted for 42% of disparity in CRC incidence and 19% of disparity in CRC mortality between blacks and whites. Thirty-six percent of the disparity in CRC mortality could be attributed to differences in stage-specific relative CRC survival. Together screening and survival explained a little more than 50% of the disparity in CRC mortality between blacks and whites. Conclusion: Differences in screening and relative CRC survival are responsible for a considerable proportion of the observed disparities in CRC incidence and mortality rates between blacks and whites. Impact: Enabling blacks to achieve equal access to care as whites could substantially reduce the racial disparities in CRC burden.002B04002B13B01Cancer colorectalNM01Colorectal cancerNM01Cancer de colon y rectoNM01Dépistage02Medical screening02Descubrimiento02Survie03Survival03Sobrevivencia03Etude comparative05Comparative study05Estudio comparativo05Race06Race06Raza06Ethnie08Ethnic group08Etnia08Epidémiologie09Epidemiology09Epidemiología09Disparité11Disparity11Disparidad11Taux12Rate12Tasa12Cancérologie17Cancerology17Cancerología17Pathologie de l'appareil digestif37Digestive diseases37Aparato digestivo patología37Pathologie du côlon38Colonic disease38Colón patología38Pathologie de l'intestin39Intestinal disease39Intestino patología39Tumeur maligneNM40Malignant tumorNM40Tumor malignoNM40CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie du rectum41Rectal disease41Recto patología41163OTOOTO 0269-9370AIDS : (Lond.)268The cost-effectiveness of routine tuberculosis screening with Xpert MTB/RIF prior to initiation of antiretroviral therapy: a model-based analysisANDREWS (Jason R.)LAWN (Stephen D.)RUSU (Corina)WOOD (Robin)NOUBARY (Farzad)BENDER (Melissa A.)ROBERT HORSBURGH (C.)LOSINA (Elena)FREEDBERG (Kenneth A.)WALENSKY (Rochelle P.)Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General HospitalBoston, MassachusettsUSA1 aut.9 aut.10 aut.Harvard Medical SchoolUSA1 aut.8 aut.9 aut.10 aut.Division of General MedicineUSA3 aut.5 aut.8 aut.9 aut.10 aut.Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Massachusetts General HospitalUSA1 aut.3 aut.5 aut.8 aut.9 aut.10 aut.Harvard Center for AIDS ResearchBoston, MassachusettsUSA1 aut.5 aut.8 aut.9 aut.10 aut.Desmond Tutu HIV Centre, Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, University of Cape TownCape TownZAF2 aut.4 aut.Department of Clinical Research, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineLondonGBR2 aut.Division of Infectious Diseases, New York University School of MedicineNew York, New YorkUSA6 aut.Departments of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public HealthUSA7 aut.9 aut.Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public HealthUSA8 aut.Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Brigham and Women's HospitalUSA8 aut.Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard School of Public HealthBoston, MassachusettsUSA9 aut.987-9952012ENGINIST220943540005098747901000000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.38 ref.12-0209211PAAIDS : (London)USABackground: In settings with high tuberculosis (TB) prevalence, 15-30% of HIV-infected individuals initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) have undiagnosed TB. Such patients are usually screened by symptoms and sputum smear, which have poor sensitivity. Objective: To project the clinical and economic outcomes of using Xpert MTB/ RIF(Xpert), a rapid TB/rifampicin-resistance diagnostic, to screen individuals initiating ART. Design: We used a microsimulation model to evaluate the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of alternative TB screening modalities - in all patients or only symptomatic patients - for hypothetical cohorts of individuals initiating ART in South Africa (mean CD4 cell count=171 cells/&mgr;l; TB prevalence 22%). We simulated no active screening and four diagnostic strategies, smear microscopy (sensitivity 23%); smear and culture (sensitivity, 100%); one Xpert sample (sensitivity in smear-negative TB: 43%); two Xpert samples (sensitivity in smear-negative TB: 62%). Outcomes included projected life expectancy, lifetime costs (2010 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Strategies with ICERs less than $7100 (South African gross domestic product per capita) were considered very cost-effective. Results: Compared with no screening, life expectancy in TB-infected patients increased by 1.6 months using smear in symptomatic patients and by 6.6 months with two Xpert samples in all patients. At 22% TB prevalence, the ICER of smear for all patients was $2800 per year of life saved (YLS), and of Xpert (two samples) for all patients was $5100/ YLS. Strategies involving one Xpert sample or symptom screening were less efficient. Conclusion: Model-based analysis suggests that screening all individuals initiating ART in South Africa with two Xpert samples is very cost-effective.002B05C02D002B05B02O002B02S05Tuberculose01Tuberculosis01Tuberculosis01SIDA02AIDS02SIDA02Antiviral04Antiviral04Antiviral04Chimiothérapie05Chemotherapy05Quimioterapia05Analyse coût efficacité07Cost efficiency analysis07Análisis costo eficacia07Dépistage08Medical screening08Descubrimiento08Virus immunodéficience humaineNW10Human immunodeficiency virusNW10Human immunodeficiency virusNW10Antirétroviral13Antiretroviral agent13Antiretroviral13Modèle14Models14Modelo14Diagnostic15Diagnosis15Diagnóstico15MycobactérioseMycobacterial infectionMicobacteriosisBactérioseBacteriosisBacteriosisInfectionInfectionInfecciónViroseViral diseaseVirosisTraitementTreatmentTratamientoLentivirusNWLentivirusNWLentivirusNWRetroviridaeNWRetroviridaeNWRetroviridaeNWVirusNWVirusNWVirusNWEconomie santé37Health economy37Economía salud37Immunodéficit38Immune deficiency38Inmunodeficiencia38Immunopathologie40Immunopathology40Inmunopatología40Santé publique41Public health41Salud pública41163OTOOTO 0933-7954SPPEEMSoc. psychiatry psychiatr. epidemiol. : (Print)475Generating small-area prevalence of psychological distress and alcohol consumption: validation of a spatial microsimulation methodRIVA (Mylène)SMITH (Dianna M.)Department of Geography, Institute of Hazards, Risk and Resilience, Durham University, Science Laboratories, South RoadDurham DH1 3LEGBR1 aut.School of Geography, Queen Mary, University of London, Mile End RoadLondon E1 4NSGBR2 aut.745-7552012ENGINIST132043540005069060200800000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.42 ref.12-0200625PASocial psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology : (Print)DEUPurpose Public mental health surveillance data are rarely available at a fine geographic scale. This study applies a spatial microsimulation procedure to generate small-area (Lower Super Outputs Areas [LSOA]) estimates of psychological distress and alcohol consumption. The validity of LSOA estimates and their associations with proximal and broader socioeconomic conditions are examined. Methods A deterministic reweighting methodology assigns prevalence estimates for psychological distress and heavy alcohol consumption through a process of matching individuals from a large, population-representative dataset (Health Survey for England) to known LSOA populations (from the 2001 population Census). 'Goodness-of-fit' of LSOA estimates is assessed by their comparison to observed prevalence of these health indicators at higher levels of aggregation (Local Authority Districts [LAD]). Population prevalence estimates are correlated to the Mental Health Needs Index (MINI) and other health indicators; ordered logistic regression is applied to investigate their associations with proximal and broader socioeconomic conditions. Results Performance of microsimulation models is high with no more than 10% errors in at least 90% of LAD for psychological distress and moderate and heavy alcohol consumption. The MINI is strongly correlated with psychological distress (r = 0.910; p value <0.001) and moderately with heavy drinking (r = 0.389; p value <0.001). Psychological distress and heavy alcohol consumption are differently associated with socioeconomic and rurality indicators at the LSOA level. Associations further vary at the LAD level and regional variations are apparent. Conclusion Spatial microsimulation may be an appropriate methodological approach for replicating social and demographic health patterns at the local level.002B18H002B18C14Prévalence01Prevalence01Prevalencia01Santé publique02Public health02Salud pública02Détresse psychologique03Psychological distress03Desamparo psicológico03Boisson alcooliséeFX04Alcoholic beverageFX04Bebida alcohólicaFX04Santé mentale05Mental health05Salud mental05AngleterreNG06EnglandNG06InglaterraNG06Homme31Human31Hombre31Grande BretagneNGGreat BritainNGGran BretañaNGRoyaume-UniNGUnited KingdomNGReino UnidoNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEpidémiologie37Epidemiology37Epidemiología37156OTOOTO 0003-9950Arch. ophthalmol. : (1960)1303Projected Clinical Outcomes of Glaucoma Screening in African American IndividualsLADAPO (Joseph A.)KYMES (Steven M.)LADAPO (Jonathan A.)NWOSU (Veronica C.)PASQUALE (Louis R.)Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Brigham and Women's HospitalBoston, MassachusettsUSA1 aut.Harvard Medical School, Brigham and Women's HospitalBoston, MassachusettsUSA1 aut.5 aut.Department of Ophthalmology, Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary, Brigham and Women's HospitalBoston, MassachusettsUSA5 aut.Channing Laboratory, Brigham and Women's HospitalBoston, MassachusettsUSA5 aut.Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences and Center for Economic Evaluation in Medicine, Washington University School of MedicineSt Louis, MissouriUSA2 aut.Department of Biology, North Carolina Central UniversityDurhamGBR3 aut.4 aut.Department of Medicine, New York University School of MedicineNew YorkUSA3 aut.365-3722012ENGINIST20333540005098016901200000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.47 ref.12-0191830PAArchives of ophthalmology : (1960)USAObjectives: To project the clinical impact of routine glaucoma screening on visual outcomes in middle-aged African American individuals and help guide glaucoma screening policy. Methods: Using data from the Eye Diseases Prevalence Research Group and Baltimore Eye Study, we developed a microsimulation model to project visual outcomes in African American individuals screened for glaucoma under a national screening policy using frequency-doubling technology. We projected the impact of universal screening on glaucoma-related visual impairment (acuity worse than 20/40 but better than 20/200 in the better-seeing eye) and blindness (acuity 20/200 or worse in the better-seeing eye). The diagnostic characteristics of frequency-doubling technology and the hazard ratio for glaucoma progression in treated patients were informed by meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials. Results: Implementation of a national glaucoma screening policy for a cohort of African American individuals between the ages of 50 and 59 years without known glaucoma would reduce the lifetime prevalence of undiagnosed glaucoma from 50% to 27%, the prevalence of glaucoma-related visual impairment from 4.6% to 4.4% (4.1% relative decrease), and the prevalence of glaucoma-related blindness from 6.1% to 5.6% (7.1% relative decrease). We project the cost of the program to be $80 per screened individual, considering only the cost of frequency-doubling technology and confirmatory eye examinations. The number needed to screen to diagnose 1 person with glaucoma is 58. The number needed to screen to prevent 1 person from developing visual impairment is 875. Conclusions: Routine glaucoma screening for middle-aged African American individuals is potentially clinically effective but its impact on visual impairment and blindness may be modest. However, we did not assess the impact on visual field loss.002B09N002B09JGlaucome01Glaucoma (eye)01Glaucoma (ojo)01Projet09Project09Proyecto09Pronostic10Prognosis10Pronóstico10Evolution11Evolution11Evolución11GlaucomaNS12GlaucomaNS12GlaucomaNS12Dépistage13Medical screening13Descubrimiento13Afro Américain14African American14Afroamericano14Homme15Human15Hombre15Ophtalmologie16Ophthalmology16Oftalmología16CiliataNSCiliataNSCiliataNSProtozoaNSProtozoaNSProtozoaNSPathologie de l'oeil37Eye disease37Ojo patología37149OTOOTO 1470-0328BJOG : (Oxford. Print)1196Cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening: cytology versus human papillomavirus DNA testingROSMALEN (J. Van)DE KOK (Imcm)BALLEGOOIJEN (M. Van)Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical CenterRotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.699-7092012ENGINIST10863540005096691100900000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.54 ref.12-0189937PABJOG : (Oxford. Print)GBRObjective To determine the most cost-effective screening programme for cervical cancer. Design Cost-effectiveness analysis from a societal perspective. Setting The Netherlands. Population Dutch women who have not been invited for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. Methods We calibrated the microsimulation screening analysis (MISCAN) model to Dutch epidemiological data. We used this model to consider nine screening strategies that use: (i) cytological testing with cytology triage for borderline/mildly abnormal smears; (ii) HPV testing with cytology triage for HPV-positive smears; or (iii) cytological testing with HPV triage for borderline/ mildly abnormal smears. For each strategy, we varied the number of screening rounds, the time interval, the age of the first screening, and the type of cytological testing (conventional or liquid-based cytology). Main outcome measures Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and costs from a societal perspective. Results Under the base-case assumptions, primary HPV testing with cytology triage is the most cost-effective strategy. Using cost-effectiveness thresholds of <euro sign>20 000 and <euro sign>50 000 per QALY gained yields optimal screening programmes with three and seven screening rounds, respectively. The results are sensitive to several uncertain model inputs, most importantly the costs of the HPV test. For women aged 32 years or younger, primary cytology screening is more cost-effective than primary HPV testing. Conclusions Increasing the interval between screening rounds and changing the primary test from cytology to HPV testing can improve the effectiveness and decrease the costs of cervical cancer screening in the Netherlands.002B20Cytologie01Cytology01Citología01Analyse coût efficacité02Cost efficiency analysis02Análisis costo eficacia02Etude comparative03Comparative study03Estudio comparativo03DNA05DNA05DNA05Gynécologie06Gynecology06Ginecología06Obstétrique08Obstetrics08Obstétrico08Carcinome col utérusINC86Economie santé37Health economy37Economía salud37Tumeur maligneNM38Malignant tumorNM38Tumor malignoNM38CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMSanté publique39Public health39Salud pública39149OTOOTO 0167-5273IJCDD5Int. j. cardiol.1553The long term financial impacts of CVD: Living standards in retirementSCHOFIELD (Deborah)KELLY (Simon)SHRESTHA (Rupendra)PASSEY (Megan)CALLANDER (Emily)PERCIVAL (Richard)NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of SydneyCamperdown, NSWAUS1 aut.3 aut.5 aut.School of Public Health, University of SydneyNSWAUS1 aut.5 aut.National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of CanberraCanberra, ACTAUS2 aut.6 aut.Northern Rivers University Department of Rural Health, University of SydneyLismore, NSWAUS4 aut.406-4082012ENGINIST164573540001946538501000000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.25 ref.12-0160848PAInternational journal of cardiologyIRLBackground: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has significant economic costs, however these are generally estimated for the present-time and little consideration is given to the long term economic consequences. This study estimates the value of savings those who retire early due to CVD will have accumulated by the time they reach the traditional retirement age of 65 years, and how much lower the value of these savings are compared to those who remained healthy and in the workforce. Methods: Using Health&WealthMOD - a microsimulation model of Australians aged 45 to 64 years, regression models were used to analyse the differences between the projected savings and the retirement incomes of people by the time they reach age 65 for those currently working with no chronic condition, and people not in the labour force due to CVD. Results: Over 99% of individuals who are employed full-time will have accumulated some savings at age 65; whereas only 77% of those who are out of the labour force due to CVD will have done so. Those who retire early due to CVD will have a median value of total savings by the time they are 65 of $1833. This is far lower than the expected median value of savings for those who remained in the labour force full-time, who will have $281841 of savings. Conclusions: Not only will early retirement due to cardiovascular disease limit the immediate income and wealth available to individuals, but also reduce their long term financial capacity by reducing their savings.002B12Long terme09Long term09Largo plazo09Etalon10Standard10Marco10Norme11Standards11Norma11Impact économique12Economic impact12Impacto económico12Aspect économique13Economic aspect13Aspecto económico13Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire14Cardiovascular disease14Aparato circulatorio patología14Cardiologie15Cardiology15Cardiología15Maladie cardiovasculaireCD96Cardiovascular diseaseCD96Cardiovascular enfermedadCD96Economie santé37Health economy37Economía salud37Epidémiologie38Epidemiology38Epidemiología38Santé publique39Public health39Salud pública39122OTOOTO 0965-8564Transp. res., Part A Policy pract.459On the fundamental diagram and supply curves for congested urban networksSelect papers from the 19th International Symposium on Transportation and Trafic Theory (ISTTT)RONGHUI LIUMAY (Tony)SHEPHERD (Simon)CASSIDY (Michael J.)ed.SKABARDONIS (Alexander)ed.Institute for Transport Studies, University of LeedsLeeds LS2 9JTGBR1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.951-9652011ENGINIST12377A3540001912164000800000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.12-0156311PCATransportation research. Part A, Policy and practiceGBRMacroscopic fundamental diagrams (MFD) of traffic for some networks have been shown to have similar shape to those for single links. They have erroneously been used to help estimate the level of travel in congested networks. We argue that supply curves, which track vehicles in their passage through congested networks, are needed for this purpose, and that they differ from the performance curves generated from MFD. We use a microsimulation model, DRACULA and two networks, one synthesizing the network for Cambridge, England, and one of the city of York, England, to explore the nature of performance curves and supply curves under differing patterns of demand. We show that supply curves differ from performance curves once the onset of congestion is reached, and that the incorrect use of performance curves to estimate demand can thus seriously underestimate traffic levels, the costs of congestion, and the value of congestion relief measures. We also show that network aggregated supply curves are sensitive to the temporal distribution of demand and, potentially, to the spatial distribution of demand. The shape of the supply curve also differs between origin-destination movements within a given network. We argue that supply curves for higher levels of demand cannot be observed in normal traffic conditions, and specify ways in which they can be determined from microsimulation and, potentially, by extrapolating observed data. We discuss the implications of these findings for conventional modelling of network management policies, and for these policies themselves.001D14O02001D15B295Réseau transport01Transportation network01Red transporte01Réseau urbain02Urban district network02Red urbana02Economie transport03Economy of transports03Economía transporte03Demande transport04Transport demand04Demanda transporte04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Congestion trafic06Traffic congestion06Congestión tráfico06Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Politique transport08Transportation policy08Política transporte08Etude théorique09Theoretical study09Estudio teórico09Application10Application10Aplicación10Méthodologie11Methodology11Metodología11Expérimentation12Experimentation12Experimentación12Simulation13Simulation13Simulación13Etude comparative14Comparative study14Estudio comparativo14Vitesse déplacement15Speed15Velocidad desplazamiento15Offre transport16Transportation supply16Oferta transporte16122PSIPSIISTTT International Symposium on Transportation and Trafic Theory19Berkeley, CA USA2011-07-18/2011-07-20 531Prévenir la pauvreté chez les travailleurs belges : réflexions sur les options politiquesMARX (I.)VERBIST (G.)VANHILLE (J.)et al.3-4513 tabl., 11 graph.2011-01/2011-03FREBDSP/IRDESP196, CODBAR 00635408800dissem.12-0155952PAREVUE BELGE DE SECURITE SOCIALEBELAu cours de ces dernières années, l'on est devenu de plus en plus conscient que la pauvreté financière était également présente chez les travailleurs, y compris chez certains travailleurs à temps plein et qui, dès lors, s'engagent au maximum pour acquérir une indépendance financière. En Belgique, environ une personne sur cinq d'âge actif subissant une situation de précarité financière a un emploi. Il existe également un chevauchement important avec la pauvreté enfantine - en effet, environ 60% des enfants qui grandissent dans un milieu frappé de pauvreté financière vivent dans un ménage ayant au moins un gagne-pain. Ceci va à l'encontre des notions largement admises de justice sociale. Cet article commence par esquisser succinctement la problématique des travailleurs pauvres en Belgique, et ceci tout particulièrement en fonction d'une conceptualisation politique adéquate. Ensuite, il passe systématiquement en revue un certain nombre d'options politiques. A cette occasion, il recourt à la technique de microsimulation pour obtenir une indication de l'éventuel impact sur la pauvreté002B30A11Politique socialeSocial policyPolítica socialPauvretéPovertyPobrezaEmployéEmployeeEmpleadoRevenu individuelPersonal incomeRenta personalSeuilThresholdUmbralCoûtCostsCosteTravailWorkTrabajoCharges socialesSocial chargesCargas socialesDonnée statistiqueStatistical dataDato estadísticoAnalyseAnalysisAnálisisProblèmeProblemProblemaDéfinitionDefinitionDefiniciónSimulationSimulationSimulaciónBelgiqueNGBelgiumNGBelgicaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG122 0928-7655Resour. energy econ.331Can unbiased be tighter? Assessment of methods to reduce the bias-variance trade-off in WTP estimationGENIUS (Margarita)STRAZZERA (Elisabetta)Department of Economics, University of Crete, University Campus74100 RethymnoGRC1 aut.Department of Economic and Social Research, University of Cagliari, Via Fra Ignazio 7809123, CagliariITA2 aut.293-3142011ENGINIST178353540001918557901900000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.12-0096499PAResource and energy economicsNLDThis paper aims at verifying the claim, appeared in recent literature, that it is possible to control for response bias associated to the double bound elicitation method, while keeping gains in efficiency of the WTP estimates. Results from a Monte Carlo analysis lead, in general, to reject the claim; but when initial bids are not correctly chosen, the gains in efficiency are confirmed. An empirical application dealing with WTP estimation for drinking water quality improvements illustrates a case where a flexible modeling approach based on Copula distributions allows relevant gains with respect to the Single Bound estimator. .001D14J01001D14C03295Qualité eau01Water quality01Calidad agua01Eau potable02Drinking water02Agua potable02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Estimation04Estimation04Estimación04Consentement à payer05Willingness to pay05Disposición a pagar05Erreur systématique06Bias06Error sistemático06Méthode évaluation contingente07Contingent valuation method07Método evaluación contingente07Loi 2 variables08Bivariate distribution08Ley 2 variables08Variance09Variance09Variancia09Modèle économétrique10Econometric model10Modelo econométrico10Méthode Monte Carlo11Monte Carlo method11Método Monte Carlo11Simulation12Simulation12Simulación12Expérimentation13Experimentation13Experimentación13Méthode empirique14Empirical method14Método empírico14072PSIPSI 0888-5885IECREDInd. eng. chem. res.512Multiscale Simulation and Experimental Study of Novel SiC Structured PackingsXINGANG LIGUOHUA GAOLUHONG ZHANGHONG SUIHONG LIXIN GAOZHENMING YANGCHONG TIANJINSONG ZHANGSchool of Chemical Engineering and Technology, Tianjin UniversityTianjin 300072CHN1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.5 aut.6 aut.National Engineering Research Centre of Distillation TechnologyTianjin 300072CHN1 aut.4 aut.5 aut.Institute of Metal Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), 72 Wenhua RoadShenyang 110016CHN7 aut.8 aut.9 aut.915-9242012ENGINIST120F3540005086738203600000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.29 ref.12-0089350PAIndustrial & engineering chemistry researchUSATwo SiC corrugated structured packings are developed: one being smooth plate and the other made of porous SiC foam. Accordingly, a macroscale three-dimensional (3D) geometric module of two corrugated sheets is introduced with a periodic boundary and a microscale computational geometry is gained from arrayed tetrakaidecahedrons. Single-phase modeling is carried out in the macro module to determine the dry pressure drops for the two types of packing. The results show that the porous SiC packing has a higher pressure drop than that of the smooth one. Two-phase flow for smooth packing is simulated with a VOF-like model provided by CFX in the macroscale geometry. It is found that openings in corrugated plates can improve the film distribution and mass-transfer efficiency. Microsimulation of two-phase flow in the porous SiC packing is performed, and the results prove that liquid can go inside the SiC foam and extend along the foam matrix with a velocity. Therefore, the porous foam can provide a larger effective gas-liquid interfacial area for mass transfer, which explains its larger theoretical plate number, compared to the smooth packing. Performance parameters including pressure drop and liquid holdup have been measured to validate the simulation method, while the distillation experiments have been carried out to study the mass-transfer efficiency of the novel SiC packings.001D07GGarnissage rangé01Ordered packing01Relleno ordenado01065OTOOTO 0361-0918CSSCDBCommun. stat., Simul. comput.413-5Double Generalized Spatial Econometric ModelsCEPEDA-CUERVO (Edilberto)PIEDAD URDINOLA (B.)RODRIGUEZ (Diana)Departamento de Estadística, Universidad Nacional de ColombiaBogotáCOL1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.671-6852012ENGINIST16531B3540005067196603000000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/412-0079970PACommunications in statistics. Simulation and computationGBRThe authors offer a unified method extending traditional spatial dependence with normally distributed error terms to a new class of spatial models based on the biparametric exponential family of distributions. Joint modeling of the mean and variance (or precision) parameters is proposed in this family of distributions, including spatial correlation. The proposed models are applied for analyzing Colombian land concentration, assuming that the variable of interest follows normal, gamma, and beta distributions. In all cases, the models were fitted using Bayesian methodology with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for sampling from joint posterior distribution of the model parameters.001A02I01Q001A02H02J001A02H02F001A02H01JMéthode statistique01Statistical method01Método estadístico01Simulation numérique02Numerical simulation02Simulación numérica02Régression statistique03Statistical regression03Regresión estadística03Analyse variance04Variance analysis04Análisis variancia04Analyse covariance05Covariance analysis05Análisis covariancia05Distribution statistique06Statistical distribution06Distribución estadística06Théorie approximation07Approximation theory07Méthode stochastique08Stochastic method08Método estocástico08Analyse numérique09Numerical analysis09Análisis numérico09Sciences économiques10Economic sciences10Ciencias económicas10Modèle économétrique17Econometric model17Modelo econométrico17Loi normale18Gaussian distribution18Curva Gauss18Estimation erreur19Error estimation19Estimación error19Famille exponentielle20Exponential family20Familia exponencial20Loi exponentielle21Exponential distribution21Ley exponencial21Estimation moyenne22Mean estimation22Estimación promedio22Variance23Variance23Variancia23Répartition spatiale24Spatial distribution24Distribución espacial24Variable normale25Normal variable25Variable normal25Loi gamma26Gamma distribution26Ley gama26Loi bêta27Beta distribution27Ley beta27Ajustement modèle28Model matching28Ajustamiento modelo28Estimation Bayes29Bayes estimation29Estimación Bayes29Chaîne Markov30Markov chain30Cadena Markov30Méthode Monte Carlo31Monte Carlo method31Método Monte Carlo31Algorithme32Algorithm32Algoritmo32Distribution échantillonnage33Sampling distribution33Distribución muestreo33Loi conjointe34Joint distribution34Ley conjunta34Loi a posteriori35Posterior distribution35Ley a posteriori35Modèle linéaire généralisé36Generalized linear model36Modelo lineal generalizado36Econométrie37Econometrics37Econometría3762J10INC7062E10INC7162E17INC7260J10INC7365C40INC7465C05INC75Analyse bayésienneINC7662P20INC77Distribution spatialeCD96Spatial distributionCD96058OTOOTO 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.13711Vehicle-Type Dependent Car-Following Model for Heterogeneous Traffic ConditionsRAVISHANKAR (K. V. R.)MATHEW (Tom V.)Research Scholar, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400 076IND1 aut.Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400 076IND2 aut.775-7812011ENGINIST572E3540005086136900400000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.12-0063783PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSACar-following behavior forms the kernel of traffic microsimulation models and is extensively studied for similar vehicle types. However, in heterogeneous traffic having a diverse mix of vehicles, following behavior also depends on the type of both the leader and following vehicles. This paper is an attempt to modify the widely used Gipps's car-following model to incorporate vehicle-type dependent parameters. Performance of the model is studied at microscopic and macroscopic levels using data collected from both homogeneous and heterogeneous traffic conditions. The results indicate that the proposed modifications enhance the prediction of follower behavior and suggest the need of incorporating vehicle-type combination specific parameters into traffic simulation models.001D15C001D15ATrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Type véhicule03Vehicle type03Tipo vehículo03Comportement04Behavior04Conducta04Conducteur véhicule05Vehicle driver05Conductor vehículo05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Collecte donnée07Data gathering07Recolección dato07Suivi de véhiculeCD96Car followingCD96Modèle macroscopiqueCD97Macroscopic modelCD97Modelo macroscópicoCD97044PSIPSI 0277-786XPSISDGProc. SPIE Int. Soc. Opt. Eng.8203Residential mobility microsimulation modelsRemote sensing of the environment : the 17th China Conference on Remote SensingYIFEI WANGLUN WUTONG (Qingxi)ed.GU (Xingfa)ed.ZHU (Boqin)ed.Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System, Peking UniversityBeijing 100871CHN1 aut.2 aut.Chinese National Committee for Remote SensingCHNorg-cong.Association on Environment Remote Sensing of ChinaCHNorg-cong.Hangzhou shi fan da xueCHNorg-cong.Zhongguo ke xue yuan. Yao gan ying yong yan jiu suoCHNorg-cong.82031H.1-82031H.72011ENGSPIEBellingham WA978-0-8194-8844-2INIST217603540001747581605200000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.47 ref.12-0061960PCAProceedings of SPIE, the International Society for Optical EngineeringUSAResidential mobility refers to the spatial movement of individuals and households between dwellings within an urban area. This considerable amount of intra-urban movement affects the urban structure and has significant repercussions for urban transportation. In order to understand and project related impacts, a considerable number of residential mobility models has been developed and used in the regional planning process. Within this context, the history and state-of-art residential mobility models are discussed and indicated. Meanwhile, a residential mobility Microsimulation model, called URM-Microsim (Urban Residential Mobility Microsimulation), is introduced and discussed.001B00A30C001B40B79Q001B40B68WTélédétection30Remote sensing30Optique atmosphérique61Atmospheric optics610130CINC834279QINC844268WINC85044OTOOTOChina conference on remote sensing17Hangzhou CHN2011-08-27 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2185Modeling Travelers' Responses to Incident Information Provided by Variable Message Signs in Calgary, CanadaHuman Performance, Simulation, and User Information ResearchKATTAN (Lina)NURUL HABIB (Khandker M.)NADEEM (Shahid)ISLAM (Tazul)Department of Civil Engineering, Schulich School of Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NWCalgary, Alberta T2N 1 N4CAN1 aut.3 aut.4 aut.Habib and T. Islam, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of AlbertaEdmonton, Alberta T6G 2W2CAN2 aut.71-802010ENGINIST10459B3540001921064101000000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.25 ref.12-0055589PATransportation research recordUSAThis paper presents an investigation of drivers' response behaviors to intelligent transportation systems. It describes the results of a detailed survey and the results of an econometric model of route diversion behavior in response to real-time information provided by variable message signs (VMSs). The study location was Deerfoot Trail in Calgary, Canada. In case of major delays because of accidents on Deerfoot Trail, the City of Calgary uses 12 VMSs along Deerfoot Trail to divert drivers to alternative parallel arterials. A survey of 500 Deerfoot Trail commuters was conducted to examine the factors affecting drivers' compliance with VMSs. A latent discrete choice model was developed to model the responses of drivers to VMSs. This model introduces behavioral variables within a discrete choice model by endogenously estimating the latent variables. The primary finding of the study is that the en route information provided by VMSs convinces few drivers to change their trip destinations. Of the 500 respondents, 63.3% of drivers alter their trip plans in light of the information provided. However, 36.7% of drivers experience inertia by not altering their route, despite the excessive delays because of route blockage. The empirical model shows that driving experience, familiarity with alternative routes, trip purpose, trip time, trip length, and complementary information sources (e.g., the radio) are the most important factors influencing route-switching behavior in response to VMSs. In addition, drivers' attitudes toward VMSs were found to have the most significant impact on their responses to these systems.001D15C001D14O05295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Panneau indicateur02Sign post02Panel indicador02Panneau message variable03Variable message sign post03Panel indicador mensaje variable03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04CanadaNG05CanadaNG05CanadáNG05Comportement06Behavior06Conducta06Conducteur véhicule07Vehicle driver07Conductor vehículo07Système intelligent08Intelligent system08Sistema inteligente08Système information09Information system09Sistema información09Collecte donnée10Data gathering10Recolección dato10Modèle économétrique11Econometric model11Modelo econométrico11Modèle empirique12Empirical model12Modelo empírico12Réponse13Response13Respuesta13Recommandation14Recommendation14Recomendación14Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG037PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2189Simulation Model for Studying Impact of Vehicle-to-Vehicle Wireless Communications on Traffic Network OperationsIntelligent Transportation Systems and Vehicle-Highway Automation 2010BING MEIHYEJUNG HUROUPHAIL (Nagui M.)LEE (Jae-Joon)Institute of Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State UniversityRaleigh, NC 27695-8601USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.Department of Advanced Transportation Research, Korea Transport Institute, 2311, Daehwa-dong Ilsanseo-gu, Goyang-si Gyeonggi-doGoyang, 411-701KOR4 aut.107-1152010ENGINIST10459B3540001921068201200000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.29 ref.12-0055371PATransportation research recordUSAThis paper describes the design and implementation of a simulation code supplement to a commercial microsimulation system that makes efficient use of traffic information data that can be disseminated via wireless vehicular ad hoc networks. The transmitted information elicits timely responses to driver behavior for speed or path changes in a realistic way. A simulation model developed by following the prescribed design was used in a case study application to simulate vehicle dynamic route diversion and variable speed limits following a severe incident in a small network. Simulation results indicate that the model results are sensitive both to different market penetration levels of vehicles equipped with wireless communications capabilities and to various control strategies, which therefore gives credibility to the utility of the system design.001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Modèle simulation02Simulation model02Modelo simulación02Réseau communication03Communication network03Red de comunicación03Véhicule routier04Road vehicle04Vehículo caminero04Télécommunication sans fil05Wireless telecommunication05Telecomunicación sin hilo05Etude impact06Impact study06Estudio impacto06Modélisation07Modeling07Modelización07Etude expérimentale08Experimental study08Estudio experimental08Evaluation performance09Performance evaluation09Evaluación prestación09037PSIPSI 0304-3959PAINDBPain : (Amst.)1531The impact of back problems on retirement wealthSCHOFIELD (Deborah)KELLY (Simon)SHRESTHA (Rupendra)CALLANDER (Emily)PASSEY (Megan)PERCIVAL (Richard)NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre and Sydney School of Public Health, University of SydneySydneyAUS1 aut.4 aut.National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM), University of CanberraCanberraAUS2 aut.6 aut.NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of SydneySydneyAUS3 aut.University Centre for Rural Health - North Coast, Department of Rural Health, Sydney School of Public Health, University of SydneySydneyAUS5 aut.203-2102012ENGINIST172413540005060690502900000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.51 ref.12-0053588PPRAPain : (Amsterdam)NLDThis study undertook an economic analysis of the costs of early retirement due to back problems, with the aim of quantifying how much lower the value of accumulated wealth of individuals who exit the workforce early due to back problems is by the time they reach the traditional retirement age of 65 years - compared to those who remained in the workforce. This was done using the output dataset of the microsimulation model Health&WealthMOD. It was found that over 99% of individuals who are employed full time will have accumulated some wealth at age 65 years, whereas as little as 74% of those who are out of the labour force due to back problems will have done so. Those who retire from the labour force early due to back problems will have a median value of total accumulated wealth by the time they are 65 of as little as $3708 (for women aged 55-64 years). This is far lower than the median value of accumulated wealth for those women aged 55-64 years who remained in the labour force full time, who will have $214,432 of accumulated wealth at age 65 years. Not only will early retirement due to back problems limit the immediate income available to individuals, but it will also reduce their long-term financial capacity by reducing their wealth accumulation. Maintaining the labour force participation of those with back problems, or preventing the onset of the disease, should be a priority in order to maintain living standards comparable with others who do not suffer from this condition.002A26J02002B16FAnalyse coût01Cost analysis01Análisis costo01Modèle02Models02Modelo02Force03Force03Fuerza03Long terme04Long term04Largo plazo04Homme54Human54Hombre54030OTOOTO 0921-3449Resour. conserv. recycl.57décScenarios for the implementation of EU waste legislation at national level and their consequences for emissions from municipal waste incinerationSANER (Dominik)BLUMER (Yann B.)LANG (Daniel J.)KOEHLER (Annette)Group for Ecological Systems Design. Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Schafmattstrasse 68093 ZurichCHE1 aut.4 aut.Natural and Social Science Interface, Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Universitdtsstrasse 228092 ZurichCHE2 aut.3 aut.Institute of Ethics and Transdisciplinary Sustainability Research, Leuphana University of Lüneburg, Scilarnhorststra&bgr;e 121335 LüneburgDEU3 aut.PE INTERNATIONAL AG,Jägerstrasse 28406 WinterthurCHE4 aut.67-772011ENGINIST168393540005060654100900000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.12-0051113PAResources, conservation and recyclingGBRIncineration plays a significant role in modern municipal solid waste (MSW) management of European countries. There are 405 treatment facilities in the European Union (EU) and another 43 plants are planned to be built in the coming years. The number of municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) plants is not only increasing due to rising waste amounts but also as a consequence of EU waste-concerned directives issued over the last two decades.This study analyses the potential influence of diverse national implementations of EU waste policies on the future emission loads to air from MSWI in different European countries. This is exemplified by constructing waste policy implementation scenarios using an adapted formative scenario analysis approach, coupled with a probabilistic MSWI emission model employing microsimulation, which enables us to model changing incinerated waste amounts and waste compositions for each country over time. This allows us to describe possible future emission levels of MSWI in the year 2020 in 33 European countries, and in detail for Switzerland, Poland and the United Kingdom. Uncertain future emission levels are calculated and compared with the emission levels determined by the scenarios' implications. We find that, depending on the scenario selected, in countries with currently small MSWI sectors like Poland median pollutant emission loads can change by a factor of between 1.4 and 336 for greenhouse gases (GHG) and 1.8 and 561 for ammonia (NH₃) compared to the reference state. For countries like the United Kingdom, with a current 9.7% share of MSWI in their waste management, this factor would be in the range of 1.3 and 7.3 for GHG and 1.3 and 9.7 for NH₃. Our results suggest that these variations are not primarily the results of the EU policy framework, but are mainly caused by the way these policies are implemented on the national level. However, comparing the emissions for Switzerland, a country with a high share of MSWI (50%), we do not find significant changes in the emission loads between the reference state and the future considering various scenarios and the uncertainty in the emission loads.001D16B03001D16B02001D16C01Législation01Legislation01Legislación01Emission polluant02Pollutant emission02Emisión contaminante02Déchet urbain03Urban waste03Desperdicio urbano03Incinération04Incineration04Incineración04Déchet solide05Solid waste05Residuos sólidos05Union européenne06European Union06Unión Europea06Prévision pollution atmosphérique07Atmospheric pollution forecasting07Previsión contaminación del ambiente07Modélisation08Modeling08Modelización08Royaume-UniNG09United KingdomNG09Reino UnidoNG09Gaz effet serre10Greenhouse gas10Gas efecto invernadero10AmmoniacNKFX11AmmoniaNKFX11AmoníacoNKFX11Gestion déchet12Waste management12Tratamiento desperdicios12Incertitude13Uncertainty13Incertidumbre13Pollution air14Air pollution14Contaminación aire14Traitement thermique15Heat treatment15Tratamiento térmico15EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG030OTOOTO 0027-8874J. Natl. Cancer Inst.10323Fecal Occult Blood Testing When Colonoscopy Capacity is LimitedWILSCHUT (Janneke A.)HABBEMA (J. Dik F.)VAN LEERDAM (Monique E.)HOL (Lieke)LANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris)KUIPERS (Ernst J.)VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein)Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical CentreRotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.5 aut.7 aut.Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC, University Medical CentreRotterdamNLD3 aut.4 aut.6 aut.Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus MC, University Medical CentreRotterdamNLD6 aut.1741-17512011ENGINIST33643540005073998700400000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.43 ref.12-0045894PAJournal of the National Cancer InstituteUSABackground Fecal occult blood testing (FOBT) can be adapted to a limited colonoscopy capacity by narrowing the age range or extending the screening interval, by using a more specific test or hemoglobin cutoff level for referral to colonoscopy, and by restricting surveillance colonoscopy. Which of these options is most clinically effective and cost-effective has yet to be established. Methods We used the validated MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model to estimate the number of colonoscopies, costs, and health effects of different screening strategies using guaiac FOBT or fecal immunochemical test (FIT) at various hemoglobin cutoff levels between 50 and 200 ng hemoglobin per mL, different surveillance strategies, and various age ranges. We optimized the allocation of a limited number of colonoscopies on the basis of incremental cost-effectiveness. Results When colonoscopy capacity was unlimited, the optimal screening strategy was to administer an annual FIT with a 50 ng/mL hemoglobin cutoff level in individuals aged 45-80 years and to offer colonoscopy surveillance to all individuals with adenomas. When colonoscopy capacity was decreasing, the optimal screening adaptation was to first increase the FIT hemoglobin cutoff value to 200 ng hemoglobin per mL and narrow the age range to 50-75 years, to restrict colonoscopy surveillance, and finally to further decrease the number of screening rounds. FIT screening was always more cost-effective compared with guaiac FOBT. Doubling colonoscopy capacity increased the benefits of FIT screening up to 100%. Conclusions FIT should be used at higher hemoglobin cutoff levels when colonoscopy capacity is limited compared with unlimited and is more effective in terms of health outcomes and cost compared with guaiac FOBT at all colonoscopy capacity levels. Increasing the colonoscopy capacity substantially increases the health benefits of FIT screening.002B04002B13B01Colonoscopie01Colonoscopy01Colonoscopía01Fèces02Feces02Heces02Sang03Blood03Sangre03Dépistage05Medical screening05Descubrimiento05Cancérologie06Cancerology06Cancerología06Cancer colorectalNM07Colorectal cancerNM07Cancer de colon y rectoNM07Homme08Human08Hombre08Pathologie de l'appareil digestif37Digestive diseases37Aparato digestivo patología37Pathologie de l'intestin38Intestinal disease38Intestino patología38Pathologie du côlon39Colonic disease39Colón patología39Pathologie du rectum40Rectal disease40Recto patología40Tumeur maligneNM41Malignant tumorNM41Tumor malignoNM41CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMEndoscopie42Endoscopy42Endoscopía42Santé publique43Public health43Salud pública43023 0308-1060TPLTAKTransp. plann. technol. : (Print)343Estimating arterial link speed using conventional road detectorsLIMANOND (Thirayoot)TUNTIWORAWIT (Nrachai)Department of Transportation Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, 111 University Avenue, Suranaree Sub-districtNakornratchasima 30000THA1 aut.Planpro Co Ltd 335 Bangkruay-Sainoi Road, T. Bangrak Pattana, Bang Bua ThongNonthaburi 11000THA2 aut.231-2432011ENGINIST156323540001897769500300000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.12-0042686PATransportation planning and technology : (Print)GBRIn response to an initiative to develop an advanced traffic information system in Bangkok, this paper explores practical guidelines for the optimal location of road sensors, such that the data collected on spot speeds reflect an entire link's average speed. In particular, the authors use microsimulation software to investigate optimal detector locations, using the sum of squared errors and root mean squared errors. The analysis hypothesizes that road segments are 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 km in length and are specially designed to replicate typical arterial streets in Bangkok. The results show that a single detector location can produce good estimates of link speed only for segments that are shorter than 1.0 km. For distances of 1.0 km or more, the results suggest that two detectors be used for good link speed estimates under all traffic conditions.001D15C001D15ATrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Système information02Information system02Sistema información02Technologie avancée03Advanced technology03Tecnología avanzada03Détecteur04Detector04Detector04Capteur mesure05Measurement sensor05Captador medida05Vitesse déplacement06Speed06Velocidad desplazamiento06Réseau routier07Road network07Red carretera07Localisation08Localization08Localización08Outil logiciel09Software tool09Herramienta software09Simulation10Simulation10Simulación10Etude comparative11Comparative study11Estudio comparativo11Congestion trafic12Traffic congestion12Congestión tráfico12023PSIPSI 1170-7690PharmacoEconomics : (Auckl.)2910Cost Effectiveness of Denosumab Compared with Oral Bisphosphonates in the Treatment of Post-Menopausal Osteoporotic Women in BelgiumHILIGSMANN (Mickaël)REGINSTER (Jean-Yves)Pharmacoeconomics Research Unit, University of LiegeLiegeBEL1 aut.2 aut.895-9112011ENGINIST261243540005073816100700000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.81 ref.12-0027080PAPharmacoEconomics : (Auckland)NZLBackground: Denosumab has recently been shown to be well tolerated, to increase bone mineral density (BMD) and to significantly reduce the risk of hip, vertebral and non-vertebral fractures in the FREEDOM (Fracture REduction Evaluation of Denosumab in Osteoporosis every 6 Months) trial. It is becoming increasingly important to evaluate not only the therapeutic value of a new drug but also the cost effectiveness compared with the most relevant treatment alternatives. Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the cost effectiveness of denosumab compared with oral bisphosphonates (branded and generic drugs) in the treatment of post-menopausal osteoporotic women in Belgium. Methods: Cost effectiveness of 3 years of treatment with denosumab was compared with branded risedronate and branded and generic alendronate using an updated version of a previously validated Markov microsimulation model. The model was populated with relevant cost, adherence and epidemiological data for Belgium from a payer perspective and the results were presented as costs per QALY gained (<euro sign>, year 2009 values). Analyses were performed in populations (aged ≥60 years) in which osteoporosis medications are currently reimbursed in many European countries, i.e. those with BMD T-score of -2.5 or less or prevalent vertebral fracture. Patients receiving denosumab were assumed to have a 46% lower risk of discontinuation than those receiving oral bisphosphonates, and the effect of denosumab after treatment cessation was assumed to decline linearly to zero over a maximum of 1 year. Results: Denosumab was cost effective compared with all other therapies, assuming a willingness to pay of <euro sign>40 000 per QALY gained. In particular, denosumab was found to be cost effective compared with branded alendronate and risedronate at a threshold value of <euro sign>30 000 per QALY and denosumab was dominant (i.e. lower cost and greater effectiveness) compared with risedronate from the age of 70 years in women with a T-score of -2.5 or less and no prior fractures. The cost effectiveness of denosumab compared with generic alendronate was estimated at <euro sign>38 514, <euro sign>22 220 and <euro sign>27 862 per QALY for women aged 60, 70 and 80 years, respectively, with T-scores of -2.5 or less. The equivalent values were <euro sign>37 167, <euro sign>19 718 and <euro sign>19 638 per QALY for women with prevalent vertebral fractures. Conclusion: This study suggests, on the basis of currently available data, that denosumab is a cost-effective strategy compared with oral bisphosphonates (including generic alendronate) for the treatment of post-menopausal osteoporotic women, aged ≥60 years in Belgium. Denosumab therefore appears to have the potential to become a first-line treatment for post-menopausal women with osteoporosis. However, further studies would be required to evaluate the long-term safety and adherence of denosumab in real-world clinical practice as well as head-to-head effectiveness compared with oral bisphosphonates.002B02L002B30A03B002B20H002B15AEconomie santé01Health economy01Economía salud01Analyse coût efficacité02Cost efficiency analysis02Análisis costo eficacia02DénosumabFR03DenosumabFR03DenosumabFR03Etude comparative04Comparative study04Estudio comparativo04Voie orale05Oral administration05Vía oral05Bisphosphonates06Bisphosphonates06Bisfosfonatos06Traitement07Treatment07Tratamiento07Ménopause08Menopause08Menopausia08Ostéoporose09Osteoporosis09Osteoporosis09Homme10Human10Hombre10Femelle11Female11Hembra11Femme12Woman12Mujer12Adulte13Adult13Adulto13BelgiqueNG14BelgiumNG14BelgicaNG14Santé publique15Public health15Salud pública15Immunomodulateur23Immunomodulator23Inmunomodulador23Antiostéoporotique24Antiosteoporotic24Antiosteoporótico24EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGAnticorps monoclonal37Monoclonal antibody37Anticuerpo monoclonal37Pathologie du système ostéoarticulaire38Diseases of the osteoarticular system38Sistema osteoarticular patología38009 1Prévenir la pauvreté chez les travailleurs belgesMARX (I.)VERBIST (G.)VANHILLE (J.)et al.3-46tabl., graph.2011FREBDSP/IRDES880012-0000323PAREVUE BELGE DE SECURITE SOCIALEBELAu cours de ces dernières années, l'on est devenu de plus en plus conscient que la pauvreté financière était également présente chez les travailleurs, y compris chez certains travailleurs à temps plein et qui, dès lors, s'engagent au maximum pour acquérir une indépendance financière. En Belgique, environ une personne sur cinq d'âge actif subissant une situation de précarité financière a un emploi. Il existe également un chevauchement important avec la pauvreté enfantine - en effet, environ 60% des enfants qui grandissent dans un milieu frappé de pauvreté financière vivent dans un ménage ayant au moins un gagne-pain. Ceci va à l'encontre des notions largement admises de justice sociale. Cet article commence par esquisser succinctement la problématique des travailleurs pauvres en Belgique, et ceci tout particulièrement en fonction d'une conceptualisation politique adéquate. Ensuite, il passe systématiquement en revue un certain nombre d'options politiques mises en oeuvre en Belgique et à l'étranger pour juguler la pauvreté. A cette occasion, il recourt à la technique de microsimulation pour obtenir une indication de l'éventuel impact sur la pauvreté002B30A11PauvretéPovertyPobrezaEmployéEmployeeEmpleadoPréventionPreventionPrevenciónSeuilThresholdUmbralPopulation activeLabour forcePoblación activaSalaireWageSalarioMinimumMinimumMínimoRevenu individuelPersonal incomeRenta personalEnfantChildNiñoCharges socialesSocial chargesCargas socialesCréditCreditCréditoImpôtLevyImpuestoDéfinitionDefinitionDefiniciónEtude impactImpact studyEstudio impactoEvaluationEvaluationEvaluaciónModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoSimulationSimulationSimulaciónDonnée statistiqueStatistical dataDato estadísticoEtude comparativeComparative studyEstudio comparativoBelgiqueNGBelgiumNGBelgicaNGPays industrialiséIndustrialized countryPaís industrializadoEtats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGRoyaume-UniNGUnited KingdomNGReino UnidoNGHommeHumanHombreEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG002 0308-518XEnviron. plann. A (Print)445Modeling social networks in geographic space : approach and empirical applicationUrban mobility and social–spatial contactARENTZE (T.)VAN DEN BERG (P.)TIMMERMANS (H.)DUGUNDJI (E.)ed.SCOTT (D.M.)ed.CARRASCO (J.A.)ed.PÁEZ (A.)ed.Urban Planning Group, Univ. of TechnologyEindhovenNLD1101-11202 fig., 11 tabl.2012ENGINIST15583 A8200Tous droits réservés © Prodig - Bibliographie Géographique Internationale (BGI), 20123 p.25992056PAEnvironment & planning A (Print)GBRLes AA. proposent un modèle de prévision de formation d’amitié entre deux personnes au sein d’une population déterminée. A partir de l’exemple de la ville d’Eindhoven, ils étudient les réseaux sociaux d’un échantillon basé sur les similarités de leurs attributs, la distance géographique et les préférences de base. Ils concluent qu’un tel travail synthétique peut être utilisé pour faire une microsimulation des interactions sociales dans un espace géographique donné531104531IV531Pays-BasNG01Netherlands (The)NG01Países BajosNG01Noord-BrabantNG02Noord BrabantNG02Brabante septentrionalNG02EindhovenINC03Géographie socialeNI04Social geographyNI04Geografía socialNI04RéseauNI05NetworkNI05RedNI05Réseau de sociabilitéNI06Social networkNI06Red de sociabilidadNI06Interaction socialeNI07Social interactionNI07Interaccíon socialNI07AmitiéINC08ModélisationNI09ModellingNI09ModelizaciónNI09DistanceNI10DistanceNI10DistanciaNI10EchantillonnageNI11SamplingNI11Selección dela muestraNI11U104!09,08,07,06!03,02,01U105!09,11,10,08!03,02,01U201!02!03,09,08,06FISTAS 0336-1454Econ. stat : (Ed. fr.)441-442Projeter l'impact des réformes des retraites sur l'activité des 55 ans et plus: une comparaison de trois modèlesLES SYSTÈMES DE RETRAITE ET LEURS RÉFORMES : ÉVALUATIONS ET PROJECTIONSBACHELET (Marion)BEFFY (Magali)BLANCHET (Didier)AUBERT (Patrick)limin.BLANCHET (Didier)limin.division Redistribution et Politiques Sociales de l'InseeFRA1 aut.division Redistribution et Politiques Sociales de l'InseeFRA2 aut.département des Études Économiques d'Ensemble de l'InseeFRA3 aut.Bureau Retraites, DreesFRA1 aut.Département des Études Économiques d'Ensemble, InseeFRA2 aut.123-143, 226, 230, 233, 237 [25 p.]2011FREenggerspaINIST242283540005055395800600000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/412-0433501PAEconomie et statistique : (Ed. française)FRAProjecting the Impact of Pension Reforms on the Activity Rate of Persons Aged 55+: A Comparison of Three ModelsLa projection des taux d'activité aux âges élevés constitue une étape importante dans l'élaboration des perspectives financières des systèmes de retraite. Elle fait donc l'objet d'une attention particulière lors de la construction des projections de population active régulièrement conduites par l'Insee. Cette projection impose de prendre en compte la diversité des situations individuelles car l'impact des réformes des retraites sur les comportements est a priori très variable d'un cas à l'autre. Par exemple, le relèvement à 62 ans de l'âge minimum de liquidation prévu par la réforme de 2010 sera neutre pour les individus qui, même sans réforme, seraient déjà partis à cet âge ou après cet âge. Il sera contraignant pour les autres, mais l'impact sur l'activité dépendra du statut avant la liquidation: repousser l'âge de liquidation des individus déjà sortis du marché du travail n'a pas d'effet sur l'activité, tant du moins qu'il n'y a pas de modification des comportements en amont de l'âge de la retraite. Simuler ces trajectoires individuelles soulève néanmoins des problèmes considérables, auxquels les modèles n'apportent que des réponses imparfaites et incertaines. Ceci plaide pour des projections scénarisées confrontant différentes hypothèses de comportement. On présente ici les résultats obtenus sur la base de trois options proposées par le modèle de microsimulation Destinie 2 de l'Insee. Selon l'hypothèse choisie, les effets cumulés des réformes adoptées de 1993 à 2010 sur le taux d'activité entre 60 et 64 ans varient, à long terme, de 10 à 40 points de pourcentage, mais par rapport à des évolutions hors réformes également variables d'un scénario à l'autre. Au total, sans autre réforme, le taux d'activité des 60-64 ans en 2050 serait compris entre 40 et 50 % et correspondrait à des âges moyens de liquidation variant entre 64 et 65 ans, et à des âges moyens de sortie d'emploi variant entre 61 et 63 ans, selon la façon dont la réforme des retraites rétroagirait sur les trajectoires de fin de carrière.52150XIII52142AXII52133AVIII521Activité professionnelle01Occupational activity01Personnes âgées02Elderly02FranceNG03FranceNG03Age de la retraite04Retirement age04Population active05Working Population05Retraités06Pensioners06Régime de retraite07Retirement Plan07Secteur privé08Private Entreprise08Secteur public09State Entreprise09Taux d'activité10Activity rate10Réforme des retraitesINC32Système de retraiteINC33Destinie 2INC34Modèle de Stock et WiseINC35SurcoteINC36Pension de retraiteINC37HypothèseINC38338 0336-1454Econ. stat : (Ed. fr.)441-442Le modèle de microsimulation Destinie 2: principales caractéristiques et premiers résultats : Les systèmes de retraite et leurs réformes: Evaluations et projectionsLES SYSTÈMES DE RETRAITE ET LEURS RÉFORMES : ÉVALUATIONS ET PROJECTIONSBLANCHET (Didier)BUFFETEAU (Sophie)CRENNER (Emmanuelle)LE MINEZ (Sylvie)AUBERT (Patrick)limin.BLANCHET (Didier)limin.Département des Études Économiques d'Ensemble de l'InseeFRA1 aut.Division redistribution et politiques socialesFRA2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.Bureau Retraites, DreesFRA1 aut.Département des Études Économiques d'Ensemble, InseeFRA2 aut.101-121, 226, 230, 233, 237 [25 p.]2011FREenggerspaINIST242283540005055395800500000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/212-0433500PAEconomie et statistique : (Ed. française)FRADESTINIE 2 Microsimulation Model: Main Characteristics and Initial ResultsLe modèle Destinie est un modèle de microsimulation dynamique qui a été développé et utilisé à l'Insee depuis le milieu des années 1990 et dont les principales applications concernent la retraite. Une nouvelle version de ce modèle a été mise en chantier à partir de 2005 et cet article en présente les principales caractéristiques. L'objectif de sa rénovation a été de disposer d'un outil plus flexible. La nouvelle version est constituée de deux blocs séparés: un générateur de biographies démographiques et professionnelles, dont on a renforcé la cohérence avec les projections démographiques et de population active, et un simulateur de droits à retraite permettant la construction de projections de retraite sur mesure, sur la base des biographies issues de la première étape. Quelques exemples de simulations servent à illustrer les possibilités du nouveau modèle. L'un de ses avantages est de permettre des calculs de droits au niveau des ménages. Le modèle montre par exemple que le niveau de vie relatif des retraités se stabiliserait à l'horizon 2050 entre 70 % et 75 % de celui des actifs, hors revenus du patrimoine et hors loyers imputés.52142AXII52150XIII521Retraite01Retirement01Vieillissement02Aging02Régime de retraite03Retirement Plan03Evolution démographique04Demographic evolution04Age de la retraite05Retirement age05Destinie 2INC33Trajectoire professionnelleINC34Générateur de biographiesINC35Trajectoire démographiqueINC36Pension de retraiteINC37Réforme des retraitesINC38338 0294-0337Sci. soc. santé291Évaluation de l'impact des changements épidémiologiques sur la dépense de santé en France pour 2025: approche par microsimulationTHIEBAUT (Sophie)VENTELOU (Bruno)CNRS GREQAM, INSERM U912 et IDEP, 23, rue Stanislas-Torrents13006 MarseilleFRA1 aut.CNRS GREQAM, INSERM U912, IDEP et ORS PACA, 23, rue Stanislas-Torrents13006 MarseilleFRA2 aut.35-682011FREengspaINIST207703540001937348000300000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3 p.1/212-0233464PASciences sociales et santéFRAAssessing the impact of epidemiological changes on health care expenditures in France for 2025: a micro-simulation approachNous proposons une méthode de prédiction de l'évolution des dépenses de santé ambulatoires (i.e. non hospitalières) sous l'effet du vieillissement de la population française à l'horizon 2025. Le modèle intègre deux indicateurs d'états de santé sur lesquels chaque agent de la base de données pourra transiter, par microsimulation, créant ainsi une dynamique épidémiologique individuelle entre bonne et mauvaise santé. À l'aide d'un modèle économétrique de consommation de biens et services de santé, nous déduisons la dépense française en santé en 2025 par agrégation de la population représentative vieillie en 2025. Le support choisi pour la première application de l'outil est la base de données ESPS 2000 de l'IRDES appariée avec l'Échantillon permanent d'assurés sociaux (EPAS). Le thème traité est l'impact de changements épidémiologiques sur le montant des dépenses ambulatoires. Ces simulations ont été réalisées pour trois scénarios épidémiologiques: scénario à dynamique épidémiologique constante, vieillissement en bonne santé et vieillissement en bonne santé + progrès médical (sans prise en compte des effets prix).52163XV521Santé publique01Public Health01Système de santé02Health system02Soin à domicile03Home care03Dépense04Expenditures04Simulation05Simulation05Modèle économétrique06Econometric Model06FranceNG07FranceNG07Vieillissement08Aging08Epidémiologie09Epidemiology09IndicateurINC32Base de donnéesINC33177 0933-7954SPPEEMSoc. psychiatry psychiatr. epidemiol. : (Print)475Generating small-area prevalence of psychological distress and alcohol consumption: validation of a spatial microsimulation methodRIVA (Mylène)SMITH (Dianna M.)Department of Geography, Institute of Hazards, Risk and Resilience, Durham University, Science Laboratories, South RoadDurham DH1 3LEGBR1 aut.School of Geography, Queen Mary, University of London, Mile End RoadLondon E1 4NSGBR2 aut.745-7552012ENGINIST132043540005069060200800000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.42 ref.12-0200625PASocial psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology : (Print)DEUPurpose Public mental health surveillance data are rarely available at a fine geographic scale. This study applies a spatial microsimulation procedure to generate small-area (Lower Super Outputs Areas [LSOA]) estimates of psychological distress and alcohol consumption. The validity of LSOA estimates and their associations with proximal and broader socioeconomic conditions are examined. Methods A deterministic reweighting methodology assigns prevalence estimates for psychological distress and heavy alcohol consumption through a process of matching individuals from a large, population-representative dataset (Health Survey for England) to known LSOA populations (from the 2001 population Census). 'Goodness-of-fit' of LSOA estimates is assessed by their comparison to observed prevalence of these health indicators at higher levels of aggregation (Local Authority Districts [LAD]). Population prevalence estimates are correlated to the Mental Health Needs Index (MINI) and other health indicators; ordered logistic regression is applied to investigate their associations with proximal and broader socioeconomic conditions. Results Performance of microsimulation models is high with no more than 10% errors in at least 90% of LAD for psychological distress and moderate and heavy alcohol consumption. The MINI is strongly correlated with psychological distress (r = 0.910; p value <0.001) and moderately with heavy drinking (r = 0.389; p value <0.001). Psychological distress and heavy alcohol consumption are differently associated with socioeconomic and rurality indicators at the LSOA level. Associations further vary at the LAD level and regional variations are apparent. Conclusion Spatial microsimulation may be an appropriate methodological approach for replicating social and demographic health patterns at the local level.770D08IV770D03NIVPrévalence01Prevalence01Prevalencia01Santé publique02Public health02Salud pública02Détresse psychologique03Psychological distress03Desamparo psicológico03Boisson alcooliséeFX04Alcoholic beverageFX04Bebida alcohólicaFX04Santé mentale05Mental health05Salud mental05AngleterreNG06EnglandNG06InglaterraNG06Homme31Human31Hombre31Grande BretagneNGGreat BritainNGGran BretañaNGRoyaume-UniNGUnited KingdomNGReino UnidoNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEpidémiologie37Epidemiology37Epidemiología37156OTOOTO 0304-3959PAINDBPain : (Amst.)1531The impact of back problems on retirement wealthSCHOFIELD (Deborah)KELLY (Simon)SHRESTHA (Rupendra)CALLANDER (Emily)PASSEY (Megan)PERCIVAL (Richard)NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre and Sydney School of Public Health, University of SydneySydneyAUS1 aut.4 aut.National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM), University of CanberraCanberraAUS2 aut.6 aut.NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of SydneySydneyAUS3 aut.University Centre for Rural Health - North Coast, Department of Rural Health, Sydney School of Public Health, University of SydneySydneyAUS5 aut.203-2102012ENGINIST172413540005060690502900000© 2012 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.51 ref.12-0053588PPRAPain : (Amsterdam)NLDThis study undertook an economic analysis of the costs of early retirement due to back problems, with the aim of quantifying how much lower the value of accumulated wealth of individuals who exit the workforce early due to back problems is by the time they reach the traditional retirement age of 65 years - compared to those who remained in the workforce. This was done using the output dataset of the microsimulation model Health&WealthMOD. It was found that over 99% of individuals who are employed full time will have accumulated some wealth at age 65 years, whereas as little as 74% of those who are out of the labour force due to back problems will have done so. Those who retire from the labour force early due to back problems will have a median value of total accumulated wealth by the time they are 65 of as little as $3708 (for women aged 55-64 years). This is far lower than the median value of accumulated wealth for those women aged 55-64 years who remained in the labour force full time, who will have $214,432 of accumulated wealth at age 65 years. Not only will early retirement due to back problems limit the immediate income available to individuals, but it will also reduce their long-term financial capacity by reducing their wealth accumulation. Maintaining the labour force participation of those with back problems, or preventing the onset of the disease, should be a priority in order to maintain living standards comparable with others who do not suffer from this condition.770B10BIIAnalyse coût01Cost analysis01Análisis costo01Modèle02Models02Modelo02Force03Force03Fuerza03Long terme04Long term04Largo plazo04Homme54Human54Hombre54030OTOOTO 0965-8564Transp. res., Part A Policy pract.454A coupled multi-agent microsimulation of social interactions and transportation behaviorTransportation and Social InteractionsHACKNEY (Jeremy)MARCHAL (Fabrice)DUGUNDJI (Elenna R.)ed.PAEZ (Antonio)ed.ARENTZE (Theo A.)ed.WALKER (Joan L.)ed.Institute for Transport Planning and Systems/ETHZürichCHE1 aut.CNRS, Lab of Transportation Economics (LET), Berthelot 1469363 LyonFRA2 aut.Universiteit van AmsterdamNLD1 aut.McMaster UniversityCAN2 aut.Eindhoven University of TechnologyNLD3 aut.UC BerkeleyUSA4 aut.296-3092011ENGINIST12377A3540001928576700500000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.11-0505217PCATransportation research. Part A, Policy and practiceGBRChoice set formation, location and mode preferences, coordinated scheduling, alternative utility valuations, and shared mobility resources are among the many activity-travel issues hypothesized to be significantly influenced by traveler interdependencies. Empirical evidence lags theory, particularly about the geography of social networks. A simulation tool is presented to let the experimenter construct and test hypothetical interdependencies between geography, socially-linked travelers, and activity-travel choices. The exploratory tool is integrated in the Multi-Agent Transportation Simulation Toolbox (MatSim-T). Initially, any social network can be constructed and embedded in geography. It can remain static, or be adapted to the travel patterns of the agents. The interactions and exchanges between agents influencing socializing and/or travel behavior can be defined in substance and in time/space. The reward for socializing or being socially linked can be varied. Finally, the co-dependence of social factors and travel behavior can be studied. This paper introduces the model and presents verification results which illustrate the coupling of extremely simplified socializing assumptions and travel behavior.001D15ATransports01Transportation01Transportes01Aspect social02Social aspect02Aspecto social02Comportement03Behavior03Conducta03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Interaction05Interaction05Interacción05Réseau social06Social network06Red social06Planification07Planning07Planificación07Voyage08Travel08Viaje08Scénario09Script09Argumento09Résultat expérimental10Experimental result10Resultado experimental10346PSIPSIInternational Workshop Frontiers in Transportation2Amsterdam NLD2007-10-13 24Le modèle ANCETRE : actualisation annuelle par calage pour l'estimation tous régimes des effectifs de retraitésAUBERT (Patrick)DUCOUDRE (Bruno)2011-09FRE63 p.BDSP/MIN-SANTEBIB00055027880011-0494130PMSERIE SOURCES ET METHODES - DOCUMENT DE TRAVAIL - DREESFRALe modèle ANCETRE est un modèle de microsimulation statique permettant de calculer des indicateurs annuels d'effectifs de retraités et de montant moyen de pension tous régimes confondus. Il est basé sur deux sources statistiques de la DREES : l'échantillon interrégimes de retraités (EIR) constitué tous les quatre ans, et les enquêtes annuelles auprès des caisses de retraite (EACR). Il consiste à créer des pseudo-EIR en clonant les individus de l'EIR et en répliquant la structure par âge de l'échantillon pour les années manquantes. Ce pseudo-EIR est ensuite pondéré en tenant compte des informations démographiques puis calé sur les données de l'EACR002B30A11MéthodologieMethodologyMetodologíaEchantillonSampleMuestraRetraiteRetirementJubilación346 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2173Impact of Left-Turn Spillover on Through Movement Discharge at Signalized IntersectionsHighway Capacity and Quality of Service 2010OSEI-ASAMOAH (Abigail)KULSHRESTHA (Ashish)WASHBURN (Scott S.)YAFENG YINDepartment of Civil and Coastal Engineering, University of FloridaGainesville, FL 32611-6580.USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.80-882010ENGINIST10459B3540001921052601000000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.11-0466586PATransportation research recordUSAWhile the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) 2000 does provide a separate procedure to estimate the back of queue for a lane group, its signalized intersection analysis procedure does not explicitly account for the impact to through movement traffic as a result of left-turn bay spillover. If the HCM methodology is used for an analysis of an intersection approach where left-turn spillover interferes with the discharge of through vehicles, the estimated delay results, and corresponding level of service, will be overly optimistic. Thus, the objective of this study was to determine the factors that significantly affect left-turn lane spillover and develop a model, or models, to predict the expected through movement capacity and discharge rate as a function of this spillover. Two approaches were used in this study: an analytical approach that developed a probability of left-turn spillover equation to incorporate into a capacity estimation equation, and an empirical approach incorporating the use of microsimulation to develop equations to estimate through movement discharge as a function of left-turn spillover. The developed probabilistic model was an enhancement to one from the literature. However, its accuracy of estimation was still limited due to the issue of intercycle queue-formation dependencies not being taken into account. The two models developed from regression analysis of simulation data-one for intersection approaches with only a single through lane and one for intersection approaches with multiple through lanes-replicate the simulation results quite reasonably.001D14O02001D15C295Réseau routier01Road network01Red carretera01Intersection02Intersection02Intersección02Trafic routier03Road traffic03Tráfico carretera03Etude impact04Impact study04Estudio impacto04Virage véhicule05Vehicle turning05Viraje vehículo05Programme recherche06Research program06Programa investigación06Modèle probabiliste07Probabilistic model07Modelo probabilista07Ecoulement trafic08Traffic flow08Flujo tráfico08Application09Application09Aplicación09Etude comparative10Comparative study10Estudio comparativo10Résultat11Result11Resultado11Simulation12Simulation12Simulación12Recommandation13Recommendation13Recomendación13Feu signalisation14Traffic lights14Semáforo14325PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2173Estimating Sustained Service Rates at Signalized Intersections with Short Left-Turn Pockets: Mesoscopic ApproachHighway Capacity and Quality of Service 2010REYNOLDS (William L.)XUESONG ZHOUROUPHAIL (Nagui M.)MINGXIN LIInstitute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State University, Centennial Campus, Box 8601,Raleigh, NC 27695-8601USA1 aut.3 aut.CME210INC2 aut.CME, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, 122 South Central Campus DriveSalt Lake City, UT 84112-0561USA4 aut.64-712010ENGINIST10459B3540001921052600800000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.18 ref.11-0466554PATransportation research recordUSAA computational approach for incorporating the effects of short left-turn pockets on sustained service rates in a mesoscopic modeling environment is presented. Mesoscopic models, intended to handle fairly large networks while maintaining individual vehicle identity, provide a detailed yet efficient alternative to estimate sustained service rates. However, mesoscopic models typically ignore midlink perturbations and queuing, thus limiting their reliability in the presence of short left-turn pockets at signalized intersections. The model presented here relies on a gating mechanism situated at the entry point to the left-turn pocket. Through a series of logical triggers, the gating mechanism allows for the formation of a (vertical) queue of vehicles upstream of the pocket when arrivals exceed storage capacity. The method satisfies all assumed requirements for integrating the effects of short left-turn bays, which include pocket spillback, pocket starvation, and sensitivity to signal timing and phase sequence. The approach has been implemented within the mesoscopic modeling platform DYNASMART for both single and multiple left-turn pockets, with the use of varying pocket lengths and demand volumes. The resulting sustained service rates favorably compare to those generated by a representative microsimulation model (VISSIM). Further comparisons of the proposed approach against empirical observations are planned.001D14O02001D15C295Réseau routier01Road network01Red carretera01Intersection02Intersection02Intersección02Ecoulement trafic03Traffic flow03Flujo tráfico03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Virage véhicule05Vehicle turning05Viraje vehículo05Mésoéchelle06Mesoscale06Mesoescala06Exigence07Requirement07Exigencia07Méthodologie08Methodology08Metodología08Modèle simulation09Simulation model09Modelo simulación09Algorithme10Algorithm10Algoritmo10Etude comparative11Comparative study11Estudio comparativo11Résultat expérimental12Experimental result12Resultado experimental12Sensibilité13Sensitivity13Sensibilidad13Trafic routier14Road traffic14Tráfico carretera14325PSIPSI 0964-1998J. R. Stat. Soc., Ser. A, Stat. soc. : (Print)174p. 4Small area estimation using a reweighting algorithmTANTON (Robert)VIDYATTAMA (Yogi)NEPAL (Binod)MCNAMARA (Justine)University of CanberraAUS1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.931-9512011ENGINIST2097A3540005072230600500000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.3/411-0462275PAJournal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A. Statistics in society : (Print)GBRThe paper describes a method of small area estimation which uses a reweighting algorithm to reweight survey data to a number of known totals (benchmarks) for small areas. The method has so far been used to estimate small area poverty rates and housing stress. The method gives poverty rates for small areas that are similar to those available from the 2006 Australian census, when the same definition of poverty was used. Various methods of validating the poverty rates have been used, including aggregating the poverty rates to a larger area and comparing them with official Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates from a survey, and applying the spatial microsimulation to larger areas and comparing with official Australian Bureau of Statistics survey results. Both these tests show that the estimates are comparable and fairly robust for most states in Australia.001A02H02A001A02H02N001A02H02EThéorie échantillonnage01Sampling theory01Teoría muestreo01Estimation17Estimation17Estimación17Algorithme18Algorithm18Algoritmo18Analyse donnée19Data analysis19Análisis datos19Pauvreté20Poverty20Pobreza20Contrainte mécanique21Mechanical stress21Tensión mecánica21Recensement22Census22Censo22Méthode statistique23Statistical method23Método estadístico23Sondage statistique24Sample survey24Ecuesta estadística2462D05INC70319OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2198Modeling the Evacuation of Large-Scale Crowded Pedestrian FacilitiesPedestrians 2010ABDELGHANY (Ahmed)ABDELGHANY (Khaled)MAHMASSANI (Hani)AL-AHMADI (Hasan)ALHALABI (Wael)College of Business, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, 600 South Clyde Morris BoulevardDaytona Beach, FL 32114USA1 aut.Department of Environmental and Civil Engineering, Southern Methodist University, P.O. Box 750340Dallas, TX 75275-0340USA2 aut.Transportation Center, Northwestern University, 215 Chambers Hall, 600 Foster StreetEvanston, IL 60208USA3 aut.King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, P.O. Box 655Dhahran 31261SAU4 aut.Two Holy Mosque Institute of Hajj Research, P.O. Box 3176MakkahSAU5 aut.152-1602010ENGINIST10459B3540001921077301700000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.15 ref.11-0457938PATransportation research recordUSAThis paper presents a simulation modeling framework for evaluating the performance of large-scale crowded pedestrian facilities during emergency evacuation. The framework adopts a microsimulation assignment approach implemented in a cellular automata platform. It captures the different behavioral rules that govern the dynamics of evacuees' decisions, including exit gate choice, path choice, frequency of path updating, and the evacuees' tolerance of congestion. The framework is first used to investigate the sensitivity of evacuation performance to the behavioral rules that were introduced. Next, it is used to evaluate evacuation performance in a large pedestrian facility, with a capacity of about 50,000 pedestrians, that frequently operates at extreme congestion levels. Several experiments are designed to investigate the impact of different model parameters on evacuation performance. The results illustrate the impact that the evacuees' behavior can have on the performance of the evacuation process. In particular, overall performance of the evacuation process can be improved if evacuees are trained to make a better choice of gate, so that they weigh both the proximity of a gate and the level of congestion around that gate. Furthermore, when evacuees have the opportunity to learn about better exit opportunities, either on their own or through a guidance system, they can frequently update their exit decisions and the overall evacuation performance improves. In addition, the evacuation throughput generally improves as evacuees become less tolerant of congestion.001D15CTrafic piéton01Pedestrian traffic01Tráfico peatones01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Echelle grande03Large scale03Escala grande03Evacuation personne04Person evacuation04Evacuación personas04Evaluation performance05Performance evaluation05Evaluación prestación05Comportement06Behavior06Conducta06Etude expérimentale07Experimental study07Estudio experimental07Application08Application08Aplicación08Résultat expérimental09Experimental result09Resultado experimental09Congestion trafic10Traffic congestion10Congestión tráfico10Foule11Crowd11Multitud11Effet de masse12Crowding effect12Efecto masivo12Procédure urgence13Emergency procedure13Proceso urgencia13Arabie saouditeNG14Saudi ArabiaNG14Arabia sauditaNG14AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG311PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2160Simulation and Evaluation of Automated Vehicle Identification at Weigh-in-Motion Inspection Stations: Case Study from British Columbia, CanadaData Systems and Travel Survey Methods 2010ISMAIL (Karim)LIM (Clark)SAYED (Tarek)Bureau of ITS and Freight Security, Department of Civil Engineering, University of British ColumbiaVancouver, British Columbia V6T 1 Z4CAN1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.140-1502010ENGINIST10459B3540001921039301500000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.13 ref.11-0451956PATransportation research recordUSAThis paper describes the development and validation of a discrete event microsimulation model that was applied to investigate the implementation of automated vehicle identification (A VI) technologies at Nordel Inspection Station in Delta, British Columbia. Current operational policies require commercial vehicles passing through the area to be inspected. The study, which includes an extensive field survey to collect validation data, determined that the implementation of a conservative industry participation of 10% in the AVI program would result in benefits ranging from $2.4 million to $7.9 million (2008 CAD), or benefit-cost ratios ranging from 11 to 47 for a range of net-present value project costs of $50 to $200,000. Benefits also include the reduction of emissions, with 5-year greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions ranging from 2,200 to 7,200 metric tons, or a cost of $9.1 to $123 per reduction of 1 ton of GHG, for a range of project implementation scenarios.001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Simulation02Simulation02Simulación02Identification véhicule03Vehicle identification03Identificación vehículo03Système automatique04Automatic system04Sistema automático04Système événement discret05Discrete event system05Sistema acontecimiento discreto05Etude cas06Case study06Estudio caso06Colombie britanniqueNG07British ColumbiaNG07Colombia BritánicaNG07Modélisation08Modeling08Modelización08Modèle simulation09Simulation model09Modelo simulación09Modèle microscopique10Microscopic model10Modelo microscópico10Etalonnage11Calibration11Contraste11Evaluation12Evaluation12Evaluación12Résultat13Result13Resultado13Pesage dynamiqueCD96Weigh in motionCD96Peso en movimientoCD96CanadaNGCanadaNGCanadáNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG311PSIPSI 0007-0920BJCAAIBr. J. cancer1057Prediction of higher mortality reduction for the UK Breast Screening Frequency Trial: a model-based approach on screening intervalsRAVESTEYN (Nt Van)HEIJNSDIJK (Eam)DRAISMA (G.)DE KONING (H. J.)Deportment of Public Health, Erasmus MC, PO Box 2040Rotterdam 3000NLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.1082-10882011ENGINIST69253540005078177303100000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.11-0451395PABritish journal of cancerGBRBACKGROUND: The optimal interval between two consecutive mammograms is uncertain. The UK Frequency Trial did not show a significant difference in breast cancer mortality between screening every year (study group) and screening every 3 years (control group). In this study, the trial is simulated in order to gain insight into the results of the trial and to predict the effect of different screening intervals on breast cancer mortality. METHODS UK incidence, life tables and information from the trial were used in the microsimulation model MISCAN-Fadia to simulate the trial and predict the number of breast cancer deaths in each group. To be able to replicate the trial, a relatively low sensitivity had to be assumed. RESULTS The model simulated a larger difference in tumour size distribution between the two groups than observed and a relative risk (RR) of 0.83 of dying from breast cancer in the study group compared with the control group. The predicted RR is lower than that reported from the trial (RR 0.93), but within its 95% confidence interval (0.63-1.37). CONCLUSION: The present study suggests that there is benefit of shortening the screening interval, although the benefit is probably not large enough to start annual screening.002B04002B20E02Cancer du seinNM01Breast cancerNM01Cáncer del pechoNM01Homme02Human02Hombre02Mortalité03Mortality03Mortalidad03Mammographie04Mammography04Mastografía04Royaume-UniNG05United KingdomNG05Reino UnidoNG05Intervalle temps06Time interval06Intervalo tiempo06Dépistage08Medical screening08Descubrimiento08Cancérologie17Cancerology17Cancerología17EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGTumeur maligneNM37Malignant tumorNM37Tumor malignoNM37CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie de la glande mammaireNM38Mammary gland diseasesNM38Glándula mamaria patologíaNM38Pathologie du seinNM39Breast diseaseNM39Seno patologíaNM39Radiodiagnostic40Radiodiagnosis40Radiodiagnóstico40Santé publique41Public health41Salud pública41311 0961-9534Biomass bioenergy355Economic tradeoff between biochar and bio-oil production via pyrolysisYODER (Jonathan)GALINATO (Suzette)GRANATSTEIN (David)GARCIA-PEREZ (Manuel)School of Economic Sciences, Washington State UniversityPullman, WA 99164USA1 aut.IMPACT Center, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State UniversityPullman, WA 99164USA2 aut.Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, Washington State University, 1100 N. Western Ave.Wenatchee, WA 98801USA3 aut.Department of Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State UniversityPullman, WA 99164USA4 aut.1851-18622011ENGINIST272043540001914870003000000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.23 ref.11-0449059PABiomass & bioenergyGBRThis paper examines some of the economic tradeoffs in the joint production of biochar and bio-oil from cellulosic biomass. The pyrolysis process can be performed at different final temperatures, and with different heating rates. While most carbonization technologies operating at low heating rates (large biomass particles) result in higher yields of charcoal, fast pyrolysis (which processes small biomass particles) is the preferred technology to produce bio-oils. Varying operational and design parameters can change the relative quantity and quality of biochar and bio-oil produced for a given feedstock. These changes in quantity and quality of both products affect the potential revenue from their production and sale. We estimate quadratic production functions for biochar and bio-oil. The results are then used to calculate a product transformation curve that characterizes the yields of bio-oil and biochar that can be produced for a given amount of feedstock, movement along the curve corresponds to changes in temperatures, and it can be used to infer optimal pyrolysis temperature settings for a given ratio of biochar and bio-oil prices.001D06B07C001D06A01C5230Biomasse01Biomass01Biomasa01Pyrolyse02Pyrolysis02Pirólisis02Production03Production03Producción03Charbon bois04Charcoal04Carbón madera04Huile végétale05Vegetable oil05Aceite vegetal05Etude technicoéconomique06Technicoeconomic study06Estudio técnicoeconómico06Rendement07Yield07Rendimiento07Condition opératoire08Operating conditions08Condición operatoria08Optimisation économique09Economic optimization09Optimización económica09Revenu économique10Income10Renta10Simulation11Simulation11Simulación11Modèle économétrique12Econometric model12Modelo econométrico12305 0965-092XProc. Inst. Civ. Eng., Transp.1641Traffic microsimulation scenario tests by the Taguchi methodGUNAY (Banihan)HINISLIOGLU (Sinan)Department of Civil Engineering, Akdeniz UniversityAntalyaTUR1 aut.Ataturk University, Engineering Faculty, Department of Civil EngineeringErzurumTUR2 aut.33-422011ENGINIST6862I3540001928113900400000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.11-0447901PAProceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers. TransportGBRThe usability of the Taguchi method in traffic simulation was investigated to demonstrate whether full factorial scenario testing is necessary on a small road network by changing certain links into one-way streets to ascertain the minimum total delay. A network with 52 links was constructed and four arbitrarily chosen links were made one-way streets, one by one in both directions. The best directions of traffic for each of these four links which gave minimum total delay time over the whole network were studied by means of Paramics microsimulation software. The simulation runs were designed using an orthogonal array technique in L₈ array with four factors (with two levels each) and three interactions. The total delay time was selected as the response variable. The response data were analysed using an analysis of variance technique by the Taguchi method. In addition, the Taguchi outcome was judged against the results of the full factorial design of the actual Paramics runs for the best and transparent comparison. Furthermore, in comparison with full factorial design, the results demonstrated that the use of the Taguchi method enabled the interactions between the factors to be seen, which cannot be achieved so simply by simulation trials.001D15C001D14O02001D14C03001D15B295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Réseau routier02Road network02Red carretera02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Méthode Taguchi04Taguchi method04Método Taguchi04Evaluation performance05Performance evaluation05Evaluación prestación05Scénario06Script06Argumento06Exemple07Example07Ejemplo07Type véhicule08Vehicle type08Tipo vehículo08Modèle origine destination09Origin destination model09Modelo origen destinación09Temps retard10Delay time10Tiempo retardo10Gestion trafic11Traffic management11Gestión tráfico11305PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2192Signal Priority near Major Bus Terminal: Case Study of Ruggles Station, Boston, MassachusettsTraffic Signal Systems 2010FURTH (Peter G.)CESME (Burak)RIMA (Tarannum)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, 360 Huntington Avenue, Room 400, Snell Engineering CenterBoston, MA 02115USA1 aut.2 aut.Cambridge Systematics, 100 Cambridge 2Park Drive, No. 400Cambridge, MA 02140-2369USA3 aut.89-962010ENGINIST10459B3540001921071600800000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.8 ref.11-0446968PATransportation research recordUSANear major bus terminals, multiple bus arrivals per signal cycle and a convergence of buses from conflicting directions can make it impractical to apply signal priority logic that attempts to interrupt the signal cycle for each bus. This research explores signal control logic for reducing bus delay around a major bus terminal in Boston, Massachusetts, where the busiest intersections see almost four buses per signal cycle. With a traffic microsimulation to model a succession of signal priority tactics, a reduction in bus delay of 22 s per intersection was obtained, with no significant impact on general traffic. The general strategy was to provide buses with green waves, so that they are stopped at most once, coupled with strategies to minimize initial delay. The greatest delay reduction came from passive priority treatments: changing phase sequence, splits, and offsets to favor bus movements. Green extension and green insertion were found to be effective for reducing initial delay and for providing dynamic coordination. Dynamic phase rotation, from lagging to leading left, proved less effective. Cycle-constrained free actuation, in which an intersection has a fixed cycle length within which two phases can alternate freely, provided flexibility for effective application of early green and green extension at one intersection with excess capacity. Emphasis is given to the approach of providing aggressive priority with compensation for interrupted phases, highlighting the compensation mechanism afforded by actuated control with snappy settings and long maximum greens.001D15C001D14O05295Transport routier01Road transportation01Transporte por carretera01Priorité02Priority02Prioridad02Autobus03Bus03Autobus03Terminal04Terminal04Terminal04Etude cas05Case study05Estudio caso05MassachusettsNG06MassachusettsNG06MassachusettsNG06Feu signalisation07Traffic lights07Semáforo07Analyse site08Site analysis08Análisis emplazamiento08Modèle simulation09Simulation model09Modelo simulación09Stratégie10Strategy10Estrategia10Coordination11Coordination11Coordinación11Gestion trafic12Traffic management12Gestión tráfico12Efficacité13Efficiency13Eficacia13Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG305PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2182Roundabouts in Signalized Corridors: Evaluation of Traffic Flow ImpactsHighway Safety: Behavior, Management, and RoundaboutsHALLMARK (Shauna L.)FITZSIMMONS (Eric J.)ISEBRANDS (Hillary N.)GIESE (Karen L.)Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, Institute for Transportation, Center for Transportation Research and Education, Iowa State University, 2711 South Loop Drive, Suite 4700Ames, Iowa 50010USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.PTV America, Inc., 9755 South-west Barnes Road, Suite 550Portland, OR 97225USA4 aut.139-1472010ENGINIST10459B3540001921061701800000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.8 ref.11-0446944PATransportation research recordUSATypically, roundabouts in the United States are installed at isolated intersections to address location-specific safety or operational needs. The use of roundabouts in signalized corridors, however, has not been well evaluated. It is commonly believed that roundabouts can improve traffic flow and travel speeds along an urban corridor by reducing delay caused by idling at intersections. Concern exists, however, that a roundabout in a coordinated signalized corridor will disrupt continuous traffic flow: downstream signals can more efficiently process vehicles in a platoon, and roundabouts disperse rather than form platoons. Roundabouts also can discharge vehicles more efficiently when traffic arrives randomly. Thus unnecessary queuing may result when roundabouts are downstream of signalized intersections. Since little research was available to compare the traffic flow impacts of roundabouts within a signalized corridor, two case studies were evaluated with the microscopic traffic simulation package, VISSIM. A roundabout and two signalized alternatives, as well as a roundabout and a four-way, stop-controlled alternative, were compared at intersections along signalized corridors in Ames, Iowa, and Woodbury, Minnesota, respectively. The traffic data and corridor geometry were coded into VISSIM, and traditional intersection traffic control within the corridors was compared with a scenario that had a two-lane roundabout. With the microsimulation software, average travel time, stopped delay, and average delay for the entire corridor were compared.001D14O02001D15C295Carrefour giratoire01Roundabout01Bifurcación giratoria01Sécurité trafic02Traffic safety02Seguridad tráfico02Trafic routier03Road traffic03Tráfico carretera03Corridor04Corridor04Corredor04Feu signalisation05Traffic lights05Semáforo05Etats-UnisNG06United StatesNG06Estados UnidosNG06Etude impact07Impact study07Estudio impacto07Ecoulement trafic08Traffic flow08Flujo tráfico08Modélisation09Modeling09Modelización09Géométrie10Geometry10Geometría10Etude comparative11Comparative study11Estudio comparativo11Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG305PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2174Development of a Microsimulation Analysis Tool for Paratransit Patron Accessibility in Small and Medium CommunitiesPlanning 2010LAMONDIA (Jeffrey J.)BHAT (Chandra R.)Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1761Austin, TX 78712-0278USA1 aut.2 aut.29-382010ENGINIST10459B3540001921053400500000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.29 ref.11-0444708PATransportation research recordUSAParatransit is a critical form of transportation for mobility-impaired, low-income, and small and medium-sized communities. Paratransit systems face many challenges that restrict how well they can serve their communities, including limited funding, aging fleets, limited to no service standard assessments, and few practical modeling and planning practices. This paper discusses a transferable paratransit microsimulation analysis tool for patron accessibility designed to address these challenges. The tool calculates paratransit patron accessibility (defined as paratransit patrons' perceived ease of access to reach desired activities and destinations) by simulating and measuring daily paratransit patron travel patterns on the basis of service fleet and region information. The tool further allows providers to evaluate patron accessibility for any combination of population groups, travel purposes, and times of day. Transit providers can use the tool to determine how well paratransit patrons are served and the most efficient ways to improve service. The microsimulation framework, including the system of simulation models, the supporting data, and application to Brownsville, Texas, are described in detail.001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Transport en commun non public02Paratransit02Transporte colectivo no público02Accessibilité03Accessibility03Accesibilidad03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Modèle microscopique05Microscopic model05Modelo microscópico05Formulation06Formulation06Formulación06Demande transport07Transport demand07Demanda transporte07Ordonnancement08Scheduling08Reglamento08Affectation trafic09Traffic assignment09Afectación tráfico09Méthode mesure10Measurement method10Método medida10Etude cas11Case study11Estudio caso11Application12Application12Aplicación12TexasNG13TexasNG13TexasNG13Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG305PSIPSI 0264-410XVACCDEVaccine2936The potential impact of RV144-like vaccines in rural South Africa: A study using the STDSIM microsimulation modelAIDS Vaccine 2010 Satellite SymposiumHONTELEZ (Jan A. C.)NAGELKERKE (Nico)BÄRNIGHAUSEN (Till)BAKKER (Roel)TANSER (Frank)NEWELL (Marie-Louise)LURIE (Mark N.)BALTUSSEN (Rob)DE VLAS (Sake J.)CHEN (Robert T.)ed.GLASSER (John W.)ed.HANKINS (Catherine A.)ed.Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre RotterdamRotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.4 aut.9 aut.Department of Primary and Community Care, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical CenterNijmegenNLD1 aut.8 aut.Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-NatalMtubatubaZAF1 aut.3 aut.5 aut.6 aut.Department of Community Medicine, United Arab Emirates UniversityAl AinARE2 aut.Department of Medical Microbiology, University of ManitobaWinnipegCAN2 aut.Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public HealthBostonUSA3 aut.Department of Epidemiology and the International Health Institute, Warren Alpert Medical School, Brown UniversityProvidence, RIUSA7 aut.Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention, National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)Atlanta, GAUSA1 aut.Division of Viral Diseases, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)Atlanta, GAUSA2 aut.Office of the Deputy Executive Director, Programme UNAIDS- Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDSGenevaCHE3 aut.6100-61062011ENGINIST202893540001911702800500000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.41 ref.11-0425697PCAVaccineGBRBackground: The only successful HIV vaccine trial to date is the RV144 trial of the ALVAC/AIDSVAX vaccine in Thailand, which showed an overall incidence reduction of 31%. Most cases were prevented in the first year, suggesting a rapidly waning efficacy. Here, we predict the population level impact and cost-effectiveness of practical implementation of such a vaccine in a setting of a generalised epidemic with high HIV prevalence and incidence. Methods: We used STDSIM, an established individual-based microsimulation model, tailored to a rural South African area with a well-functioning HIV treatment and care programme. We estimated the impact of a single round of mass vaccination for everybody aged 15-49, as well as 5-year and 2-year re-vaccination strategies for young adults (aged 15-29). We calculated proportion of new infections prevented, cost-effectiveness indicators, and budget impact estimates of combined ART and vaccination programmes. Results: A single round of mass vaccination with a RV144-like vaccine will have a limited impact, preventing only 9% or 5% of new infections after 10 years at 60% and 30% coverage levels, respectively. Revaccination strategies are highly cost-effective if vaccine prices can be kept below 150 US$/vaccine for 2-year revaccination strategies, and below 200 US$/vaccine for 5-year revaccination strategies. Net cost-savings through reduced need for HIV treatment and care occur when vaccine prices are kept below 75 US$/vaccine. These results are sensitive to alternative assumptions on the underlying sexual network, background prevention interventions, and individual's propensity and consistency to participate in the vaccination campaign. Discussion: A modestly effective vaccine can be a cost-effective intervention in highly endemic settings. To predict the impact of vaccination strategies in other endemic situations, sufficient knowledge of the underlying sexual network, prevention and treatment interventions, and individual propensity and consistency to participate, is key. These issues are all best addressed in an individual-based microsimulation model.002A05F04002A05C10Virus immunodéficience humaineNW01Human immunodeficiency virusNW01Human immunodeficiency virusNW01Vaccin05Vaccine05Vacuna05Afrique du SudNG06South AfricaNG06SudáfricaNG06Modèle mathématique07Mathematical model07Modelo matemático07LentivirusNWLentivirusNWLentivirusNWRetroviridaeNWRetroviridaeNWRetroviridaeNWVirusNWVirusNWVirusNWAfriqueNGAfricaNGAfricaNGAfrique australeNG13Southern AfricaNG13Africa australNG13290OTOOTOAIDS Vaccine 2010 Satellite SymposiumAtlanta, Georgia USA2010-09-28 0008-543XCANCARCancer11718How Much Colonoscopy Screening Should Be Recommended to Individuals With Various Degrees of Family History of Colorectal Cancer?WILSCHUT (Janneke A.)STEYERBERG (Ewout W.)VAN LEERDAM (Monique E.)LANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris)HABBEMA (J. Dik F.)VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein)Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.4 aut.5 aut.6 aut.Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamNLD3 aut.4166-41742011ENGINIST27013540005001991900900000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.53 ref.11-0424480PACancerUSABACKGROUND: Individuals with a family history of colorectal cancer (CRC) are at increased risk for CRC. Current screening recommendations for these individuals are based on expert opinion. The authors investigated optimal screening strategies for individuals with various degrees of family history of CRC based on a cost-effectiveness analysis. METHODS: The MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model was used to estimate costs and effects of CRC screening strategies, varying by the age at which screening was started and stopped and by screening interval. The authors defined 4 risk groups, characterized by the number of affected first-degree relatives and their age at CRC diagnosis. For all risk groups, the optimal screening strategy had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of approximately $50,000 per life-year gained. RESULTS: The optimal screening strategy for individuals with 1 first-degree relative diagnosed after age 50 years was 6 colonoscopies every 5 years starting at age 50 years, compared with 4 colonoscopies every 7 years starting at age 50 years for average risk individuals. The optimal strategy had 10 colonoscopies every 4 years for individuals with 1 first-degree relative diagnosed before age 50 years, 13 colonoscopies every 3 years for individuals with 2 or more first-degree relatives diagnosed after age 50 years, and 15 colonoscopies every 3 years for individuals with 2 or more first-degree relatives of whom at least 1 was diagnosed before age 50 years. CONCLUSIONS: The optimal screening strategy varies considerably with the number of affected first-degree relatives and their age of diagnosis. Shorter screening intervals than the currently recommended 5 years may be appropriate for the highest risk individuals.002B04002B13B01Colonoscopie01Colonoscopy01Colonoscopía01Dépistage02Medical screening02Descubrimiento02Homme03Human03Hombre03Endoscopie04Endoscopy04Endoscopía04Histoire familiale05Family story05Historia familiar05Antécédent06Antecedent06Antecedente06Cancer colorectalNM07Colorectal cancerNM07Cancer de colon y rectoNM07Précoce08Early08Precoz08Diagnostic09Diagnosis09Diagnóstico09Tumeur maligneNM10Malignant tumorNM10Tumor malignoNM10Facteur risque11Risk factor11Factor riesgo11Analyse coût efficacité12Cost efficiency analysis12Análisis costo eficacia12Cancérologie17Cancerology17Cancerología17CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie de l'appareil digestif37Digestive diseases37Aparato digestivo patología37Pathologie du côlon38Colonic disease38Colón patología38Pathologie de l'intestin39Intestinal disease39Intestino patología39Pathologie du rectum40Rectal disease40Recto patología40290OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2176Integrating an Activity-Based Travel Demand Model with Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Emission Models: Implementation in the Greater Toronto, Canada, AreaTravel Forecasting 2010. volume 2JIANG YANG HAOHATZOPOULOU (Marianne)MILLER (Eric J.)Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George StreetToronto, Ontario M5S 1A4CAN1 aut.2 aut.Department of Civil Engineering and Cities Center, University of Toronto, 455 Spadina Avenue, Suite 400Toronto, Ontario M5S 2G8CAN3 aut.1-132010ENGINIST10459B3540001921055900100000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.20 ref.11-0408979PATransportation research recordUSAMicrosimulation is becoming more popular in transportation research. This research explores the potential of microsimulation by integrating an existing activity-based travel demand model, TASHA, with a dynamic agent-based traffic simulation model, MATSim. Differences in model precisions from the two models are resolved through a series of data conversions, and the models are able to form an iterative process similar to previous modeling frameworks using TASHA and static assignment using Emme/2. The resulting model is then used for light-duty vehicle emission modeling where the traditional average-speed modeling approach is improved by exploiting agent-based traffic simulation results. This improved method of emission modeling is more sensitive to the effect of congestion, and the linkage between individual vehicles and link emissions is preserved. The results have demonstrated the advantages of the microsimulation approach over conventional methodologies that rely heavily on temporal or spatial aggregation. The framework can be improved by further enhancing the sensitivity of TASHA to travel time.001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Modèle dynamique03Dynamic model03Modelo dinámico03Affectation trafic04Traffic assignment04Afectación tráfico04Activité05Activity05Actividad05Voyage06Travel06Viaje06Demande transport07Transport demand07Demanda transporte07Modèle microscopique08Microscopic model08Modelo microscópico08Modèle simulation09Simulation model09Modelo simulación09Emission gaz11Gas emission11Emisión gas11Statistique12Statistics12Estadística12Méthode calcul13Computing method13Método cálculo13Vitesse déplacement14Speed14Velocidad desplazamiento14283PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2175From Microsimulation to Nanosimulation: Visualizing Person Trips over Multiple Modes of TransportTravel Forecasting 2010. volume 1DUNCAN (Gordon)Azalient, Stirling University Innovation ParkStirling FK9 4NFGBR1 aut.130-1372010ENGINIST10459B3540001921054201500000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.15 ref.11-0408974PATransportation research recordUSAIn the past 15 years microsimulation software tools have increased the ability to analyze congested traffic by modeling at the level of individual vehicles. Although this can be very detailed, it assumes that mode choice is fixed. The research presented models the people in the network, either walking or in vehicles, following each person for an entire trip through multiple modes of travel. This approach is called &dquot;nanosimulation.&dquot; The paper presents a pilot project that analyzes access to an airport by comparing multiple parking options, rail transit, drop-off, and taxi access. Generalized cost incorporating time, distance, and price is visualized for each access method and allows comparison of the total end-to-end cost of all combinations of modes in an interactive three-dimensional simulation model. The primary objective of the research presented is to prove that analysis at this level is practical and can provide insight that is not available from other methods. A historical perspective of microsimulation is presented to illustrate how seemingly impractical models that were run on a supercomputer in 1994 are now in common use on sub-$1,000 everyday computers. The paper describes the technologies, data structure, and algorithms used in the research and addresses the issues of data availability and model repeatability. The model area is described, with illustrations of the visualization. The final sections present results of the project, followed by conclusions and recommendations.001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Outil logiciel04Software tool04Herramienta software04Moyen transport05Transportation mode05Medio transporte05Modèle microscopique06Microscopic model06Modelo microscópico06Analyse coût efficacité07Cost efficiency analysis07Análisis costo eficacia07Voyage08Travel08Viaje08Transport voyageur09Passenger transportation09Transporte pasajero09Etude cas10Case study10Estudio caso10Desserte aéroport11Airport service road11Servicio comunicación aeropuerto11Royaume-UniNG12United KingdomNG12Reino UnidoNG12Performance13Performance13Rendimiento13Réseau transport14Transportation network14Red transporte14Recommandation15Recommendation15Recomendación15NanosimulationINC86EdimbourgNGINC87EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG283PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2175Comparison of Agent-Based Transit Assignment Procedure with Conventional Approaches: Toronto, Canada, Transit Network and Microsimulation Learning-Based Approach to Transit AssignmentTravel Forecasting 2010. volume 1JOSHUA WANGWAHBA (Mohamed)MILLER (Eric J.)Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George StreetToronto, Ontario M5S 1A4CAN1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, University of British Columbia, 6250 Applied Science LaneVancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4CAN2 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, Cities Centre, University of Toronto, 45 Spadina Avenue, Suite 400Toronto, Ontario M5S 2G8CAN3 aut.47-562010ENGINIST10459B3540001921054200600000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.17 ref.11-0408969PATransportation research recordUSAThe public transportation system, a key part of a multimodal transportation network, has been widely viewed as an efficient way to reduce road congestion and pollution. Public transportation planners use transit assignment models to forecast travel demand and service performance. As technologies evolve and smart transit systems become more prevalent, it is important that assignment models adapt to new policies, such as traveler information provision. This paper investigates three transit assignment tools that represent three approaches to modeling transit trip distribution over a network of fixed routes. These tools are the EMME/2 Transit Assignment Module (Module 5.35), commonly used by planners; Toronto, Canada, Transit Commission's transit assignment tool, MADITUC; and the newly developed Microsimulation Learning-based Approach to Transit Assignment (MILATRAS). These approaches range from aggregate, strategy-based frameworks to fully disaggregate microscopic platforms. MILATRAS presents a stochastic process approach (i.e., nonequilibrium based) for modeling within-day and day-to-day variations in the transit assignment process in which aggregate travel patterns can be extracted from individual choices. Although MILATRAS presents a different standpoint for analysis in comparison with equilibrium-based models, it still gives the steady state run loads. MILATRAS performs comparatively well with EMME/2 and MADITUC. In addition, MILATRAS presents a policy-sensitive platform for modeling the effects of smart transit system policies and technologies on passengers' travel behavior (i.e., trip choices) and transit service performance.001D15B001D15ATransports01Transportation01Transportes01Transport public02Public transportation02Transporte público02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Affectation trafic04Traffic assignment04Afectación tráfico04Etude comparative05Comparative study05Estudio comparativo05Orienté agent06Agent oriented06Orientado agente06Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Transport urbain08Urban transportation08Transporte urbano08CanadaNG09CanadaNG09CanadáNG09Analyse donnée11Data analysis11Análisis datos11Scénario12Script12Argumento12Performance13Performance13Rendimiento13Métropolitain14Subways14Metropolitano14Transport voyageur15Passenger transportation15Transporte pasajero15TorontoNGINC86Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG283PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2147Do Calculated Conflicts in Microsimulation Model Predict Number of Crashes?Highway Safety Data, Analysis, and Evaluation 2010. Volume 1DIJKSTRA (Atze)MARCHESINI (Paula)BIJLEVELD (Frits)KARS (Vincent)DROLENGA (Hans)VAN MAARSEVEEN (Martin)SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research, P.O. Box 10902260 BB LeidschendamNLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.Grontmij Nederland bv, Postbus 2033730 AE De BiltNLD5 aut.Center for Transport Studies, University of Twente, P.O. Box 2177500 AE EnschedeNLD6 aut.105-1122010ENGINIST10459B3540001921026001300000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.15 ref.11-0399226PATransportation research recordUSAA microsimulation model and its calculations are described, and the results that are subsequently used to determine indicators for traffic safety are presented. The method demonstrates which changes occur at the level of traffic flow (number of vehicles per section of road) and at the vehicle level (vehicles choosing different routes). The best-known safety indicator in this type of model is the conflict situation, in which two vehicles approach each other and, if no action is taken, a crash will occur. These conflict situations are detected in the simulation model. This method does not necessarily relate directly to any actual observed conflicts or recorded crashes. The quantitative relationship is examined between detected conflicts at junctions in the model and recorded crashes at the same locations in the real world. The methods chosen for detecting conflicts and for selecting crashes are explained. A microsimulation model was constructed for a regional road network. The conflicts in this network were detected, and the recorded crashes were selected. The results show a quantitative relationship between the number of conflicts at priority junctions and the number of passing motor vehicles on one hand and the number of observed crashes on the other hand. When crashes and conflicts are divided into crash categories, junctions with signals clearly show substantial differences between the relative numbers of frontal crashes and frontal conflicts.001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Sécurité trafic02Traffic safety02Seguridad tráfico02Accident circulation03Traffic accident03Accidente tráfico03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Méthode calcul05Computing method05Método cálculo05Conflit06Conflict06Conflicto06Modèle prévision07Forecast model07Modelo previsión07Analyse site08Site analysis08Análisis emplazamiento08Pays-BasNG09NetherlandsNG09HolandaNG09Modèle statistique10Statistical model10Modelo estadístico10Intersection11Intersection11Intersección11EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG276PSIPSI 1524-9050IEEE Trans. intell. transp. syst.122Integration of Driving and Traffic Simulation: Issues and First Solutions : ARTIFICIAL TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND SIMULATIONPUNZO (Vincenzo)CIUFFO (Biagio)Department of Transportation Engineering &dquot;L. Tocchetti,&dquot; University of Naples Federico II80125 NapoliITA1 aut.Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission21020 Ispra (VareseITA2 aut.354-3632011ENGINIST270613540001921684600500000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.36 ref.11-0395447PAIEEE Transactions on intelligent transportation systemsUSADriving simulators are very suitable test beds for the evaluation and development of intelligent transportation systems (ITSs). However, the impact of such systems on the behavior of individual drivers can properly be analyzed through driving simulators only if autonomous vehicles in the driving scenario move according to the system under evaluation. This condition means that the simulation of the traffic surrounding the interactive vehicle should already take into account the driver's behavior as affected by the system under analysis. Currently, this &dquot;loop&dquot; is not properly tackled, because the effects on individuals and traffic are, in general, separately and, often, independently evaluated. The integration of traffic and driving simulations, instead, may provide a more consistent solution to this challenging evaluation problem. It also opens up new scenarios for enhancing the credibility of both traffic modeling and driving simulation and for their combined development. For instance, because drivers directly interact with driver/traffic models in a driving simulation environment, such models may also be tested against nonnormative behavior, and this case seems the only way to test driver/traffic models for safety applications. Based on this idea, this paper describes the integration of a driving simulation engine known as SCANeR and a traffic-flow microsimulation model known as AIMSUN. Methodological and technical issues of such integration are first presented, and future enhancements for higher consistency of the simulation environments are finally envisaged.001D15CSimulateur06Simulator06Simulador06Analyse comportementale07Behavioral analysis07Análisis conductual07Système autonome08Autonomous system08Sistema autónomo08Robot mobile09Moving robot09Robot móvil09Crédibilité information10Information credibility10Credibilidad información10Conduite véhicule18Vehicle driving18Conducción vehículo18Conducteur véhicule19Vehicle driver19Conductor vehículo19Gestion trafic20Traffic management20Gestión tráfico20Sécurité trafic21Traffic safety21Seguridad tráfico21Ecoulement trafic22Traffic flow22Flujo tráfico22Analyse système23System analysis23Análisis sistema23Modélisation24Modeling24Modelización24269OTOOTO 0269-9370AIDS : (Lond.)2513Ageing with HIV in South AfricaHONTELEZ (Jan A. C.)LURIE (Mark N.)NEWELL (Marie-Louise)BAKKER (Roel)TANSER (Frank)BARNIGHAUSEN (Till)BALTUSSEN (Rob)DE VLAS (Sake J.)Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamNLD1 aut.4 aut.8 aut.Nijmegen International Center for Health System Analysis and Education, Department of Primary and Community Care, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical CentreNijmegenNLD1 aut.7 aut.Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-NatalMtubatubaZAF1 aut.3 aut.5 aut.6 aut.Department of Community Health and the International Health Institute, Warren Alpert Medical School, Brown UniversityProvidence, Rhode IslandUSA2 aut.Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public HealthBoston, MassachusettsUSA6 aut.1665-16672011ENGINIST220943540005089628201300000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.20 ref.11-0395250PCRAAIDS : (London)USAWe used an established microsimulation model, quantified to a rural South African setting with a well developed antiretroviral treatment programme, to predict the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the HIV epidemic in the population aged over 50 years. We show that the HIV prevalence in patients aged over 50 years will nearly double in the next 30 years, whereas the fraction of HIV-infected patients aged over 50 years will triple in the same period. This ageing epidemic has important consequences for the South African healthcare system, as older HIV patients require specialized care.002B05C02D002B06D01SIDA01AIDS01SIDA01Vieillissement07Ageing07Envejecimiento07Afrique du SudNG08South AfricaNG08SudáfricaNG08Virus immunodéficience humaineNW10Human immunodeficiency virusNW10Human immunodeficiency virusNW10ViroseViral diseaseVirosisInfectionInfectionInfecciónAfriqueNGAfricaNGAfricaNGLentivirusNWLentivirusNWLentivirusNWRetroviridaeNWRetroviridaeNWRetroviridaeNWVirusNWVirusNWVirusNWImmunodéficit37Immune deficiency37Inmunodeficiencia37Immunopathologie39Immunopathology39Inmunopatología39269OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2197Comparison of MATSim and EMME/2 on Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area Network, CanadaNetwork Modeling 2010. Volume 2WENLI GAOBALMER (Michael)MILLER (Eric J.)Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George StreetToronto, Ontario M5S 1A4CAN1 aut.Institute for Transport Planning and Systems, ETH Zurich, HIL F 51.1, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 158093 ZurichCHE2 aut.Cities Center, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, Suite 400, 455 Spadina AvenueToronto, Ontario M5S 2G8CAN3 aut.118-1282010ENGINIST10459B3540001921076501400000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.30 ref.11-0385870PATransportation research recordUSAThe agent-based microsimulation modeling technique for transportation planning is rapidly developing, is being applied in practice, and is attracting considerable attention. Along with the conventional four-step modeling technique, MATSim and EMME/2 represent two genres of traffic assignment. They are built on different theoretical bases: dynamic stochastic stationary state assignment and static deterministic user equilibrium assignment, respectively. A study was done of the models' application with data from the Greater Toronto and Hamilton area network in Canada. Given the actual demand data, the models' assignment results are compared and validated on the basis of four indicators of the road network-travel time, travel distance, link volume, and link speed- to reflect both spatial and temporal variation of the traffic flow pattern. The comparison results show that numerical outputs produced by MATSim are not only compatible with those by EMME/2 but are also more realistic from a temporal point of view. The agent-based microsimulation model can be an appropriate alternative to the conventional model for transportation planning. Therefore, agent-based microsimulation models reflect a promising direction of next-generation transportation planning models.001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Planification02Planning02Planificación02Etude comparative03Comparative study03Estudio comparativo03CanadaNG04CanadaNG04CanadáNG04Etude théorique05Theoretical study05Estudio teórico05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Modélisation07Modeling07Modelización07Modèle dynamique08Dynamic model08Modelo dinámico08Affectation trafic09Traffic assignment09Afectación tráfico09Réseau10Network10Red10Validation11Validation11Validación11Ecoulement trafic12Traffic flow12Flujo tráfico12Vitesse déplacement13Speed13Velocidad desplazamiento13Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG262PSIPSI 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1378Analytical Method for Estimating the Impact of Transit Signal Priority on Vehicle DelayABDY (Zeeshan R.)HELLINGA (Bruce R.)Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Waterloo, 200 University Ave. WestWaterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1CAN1 aut.2 aut.589-6002011ENGINIST572E3540001911590700900000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.11-0382502PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSATransit agencies seeking to improve transit service delivery are increasingly considering the deployment of transit signal priority (TSP). However, the impact of TSP on transit service and on the general traffic stream is a function of many factors, including intersection geometry, signal timings, traffic demands, TSP strategies and parameters, transit vehicle headways, timing when transit vehicles arrive at the intersection, etc. Previous studies have shown that depending on these factors, the net impact of TSP in terms of vehicle or person delay can be positive or negative. Furthermore, because of financial constraints, transit agencies are often able to deploy TSP at only a portion of all of the candidate intersections. Consequently, there is a need to estimate the impact of TSP before implementation to assist in determining at which intersections TSP should be deployed. Currently, the impacts of TSP are often estimated by using microscopic simulation models. However, the application of these models is resource intensive and requires specialized expertise that is often not available in-house to transit agencies. In this paper, we propose and validate an analytical model for estimating the delay impacts of green extension and early green (red truncation) TSP strategies. The model is applied to individual intersections and can reflect the effect of coordination on arrivals to the intersection ; however, it does not consider the impact of TSP on coordination at downstream intersections. The results show that the proposed model provides estimates of the delay impacts of TSP that closely match those obtained from microsimulation modeling analysis (using VISSIM) for volume-to-capacity (v/c) ratios up to 0.8. The proposed model is suitable for implementation within a spreadsheet and requires considerably less effort and technical expertise to apply than a typical microsimulation model and therefore may be a more suitable tool for transit agencies to use for prioritizing TSP deployment.001D15C001D14O05001D15B295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Feu signalisation02Traffic lights02Semáforo02Intersection03Intersection03Intersección03Méthode analytique04Analytical method04Método analítico04Priorité05Priority05Prioridad05Retard06Delay06Retraso06Simulation07Simulation07Simulación07Système attente08Queueing system08Sistema fila espera08Modèle microscopique09Microscopic model09Modelo microscópico09Transport en commun10Collective transport system10Transporte colectivo10Modèle simulation11Simulation model11Modelo simulación11Détection12Detection12Detección12Méthode calcul13Computing method13Método cálculo13Validation14Validation14Validación14Etude comparative15Comparative study15Estudio comparativo15262PSIPSI 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1378Simulation of Exclusive Truck Facilities on Urban FreewaysABDELGAWAD (Hossam)ABDULHAI (Baher)AMIRJAMSHIDI (Glareh)WAHBA (Mohamed)WOUDSMA (Clarence)ROORDA (Matthew J.)Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of TorontoM5S 1A4CAN1 aut.3 aut.6 aut.Toronto ITS Centre and Testbed, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of TorontoM5S 1A4.CAN2 aut.Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of British ColumbiaV6TCAN4 aut.School of Planning, Univ. of WaterlooN2L 3G1CAN5 aut.547-5622011ENGINIST572E3540001911590700500000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.11-0382501PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAThis paper assesses the impact of exclusive truck facilities on urban freeway performance. A large-scale regional microscopic traffic simulation model is developed for morning and afternoon peak hours and is used to model two alternative truckway configurations in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), including a truck-only highway and a truck lane conversion on Highway 401. Demand inputs to the microsimulation model are generated by a regional transportation demand model that provides origin-destination (OD) matrices for light, medium, and heavy trucks and passenger cars. Plug-ins are developed to represent a truck-only lane in the simulation environment. The simulation model is successfully calibrated to reflect observed road counts and to produce realistic congestion patterns. The effect of infrastructure changes on travel distances, travel times, exclusive truck lane usage, and travel speeds is assessed. Microscopic simulation allows queuing formation/dissipation and bottlenecks to be represented and allows for separate analysis of truck and car performance. Addition of a 4-lane truck-only highway results in greater travel time improvements for trucks, and it sometimes results in shifting of traffic bottlenecks on Highway 401 to downstream locations. Conversion of a freeway lane on Highway 401 results in increased congestion for passenger cars, but improved travel speeds for trucks. Both scenarios show truck facility usage ranges from 100 to 800 trucks per hour per direction.001D14O02001D15C295Autoroute01Freeway01Autopista01Zone urbaine02Urban area02Zona urbana02Trafic routier03Road traffic03Tráfico carretera03Transport marchandise04Freight transportation04Transporte mercadería04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Equipement collectif07Facility07Equipamiento colectivo07Modèle microscopique08Microscopic model08Modelo microscópico08Demande transport09Transport demand09Demanda transporte09Etalonnage10Calibration10Contraste10Observation11Observation11Observación11Test ajustement12Goodness of fit test12Prueba ajuste12Scénario13Script13Argumento13Vitesse déplacement14Speed14Velocidad desplazamiento14CanadaNG15CanadaNG15CanadáNG15Modèle origine destination16Origin destination model16Modelo origen destinación16Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG262PSIPSI 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1377Event-Based Modeling of Driver Yielding Behavior at Unsignalized CrosswalksSCHROEDER (Bastian J.)ROUPHAIL (Nagui M.)Institute for Transportation Research and Education (ITRE), North Carolina State Univ., Centennial Campus, Box 8601Raleigh, NC 27695-8601USA1 aut.Institute for Transportation Research and Education (ITRE), North Carolina State Univ., Centennial Campus, Box 8601Raleigh, NC 27695-8601USA2 aut.455-4652011ENGINIST572E3540005085410900300000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.11-0358937PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAThis research explores factors associated with driver yielding behavior at unsignalized pedestrian crossings and develops predictive models for yielding by using logistic regression. It considers the effect of variables describing driver attributes, pedestrian characteristics, and concurrent conditions at the crosswalk on yield response. Special consideration is given to &dquot;vehicle dynamics constraints&dquot; that form a threshold for the potential to yield. Similarities to driver reaction in response to the amber indication at a signalized intersection are identified. The logit models were developed from data collected at two unsignalized midblock crosswalks in North Carolina. The data include before and after observations of two pedestrian safety treatments, an in-street pedestrian crossing sign and pedestrian-actuated in-roadway warning lights. The analysis suggests that drivers are more likely to yield to assertive pedestrians who walk briskly in their approach to the crosswalk. In turn, the yield probability is reduced with higher speeds, with deceleration rates, and if vehicles are traveling in platoons. The treatment effects proved to be significant and increased the propensity of drivers to yield, but their effectiveness may be dependent on whether the pedestrian activates the treatment. The results of this research provide new insights into the complex interaction of pedestrians and vehicles at unsignalized intersections and have implications for future work toward predictive models for driver yielding behavior. The developed logit models can provide the basis for representing driver yielding behavior in a microsimulation modeling environment.001D15C001D15ATrafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Modèle comportement03Behavior model03Modelo comportamiento03Conducteur véhicule04Vehicle driver04Conductor vehículo04Passage piéton05Pedestrian walk05Pasaje peatones05Feu signalisation06Traffic lights06Semáforo06Modélisation07Modeling07Modelización07Régression logistique08Logistic regression08Regresión logística08Caroline du NordNG09North CarolinaNG09Carolina del norteNG09Collecte donnée10Data gathering10Recolección dato10Analyse donnée11Data analysis11Análisis datos11Statistique descriptive12Descriptive statistics12Estadística descriptiva12Etude comparative13Comparative study13Estudio comparativo13Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG249 137Une nouvelle version du modèle de microsimulation Myriade : trimestrialisation des ressources et évaluation du revenu de Solidarité activeMARC (C.)PUCCI (M.)Caisse Nationale d'Allocations Familiales. (C.N.A.F.). Direction des Statistiques des Etudes et de la Recherche. Paris.FRA2011-02FRE59 p.tabl., stat., graph., ann.BDSP/ORSMIP88001 p.11-0348421PMDOSSIERS D'ETUDES - CNAFFRAL'objet de ce dossier d'études est de présenter la première version du modèle de microsimulation MYRIADE avec ressources trimestrielles. Cette version a été réalisée au premier semestre de l'année 2010 à partir de l'ERFS 2007, et servira de base aux versions suivantes. Outre l'imputation de ressources trimestrielles et le calcul trimestriel de l'éligibilité au RSA, cette version a donné lieu à l'actualisation et à l'amélioration des procédures d'imputation des transferts et les procédures de calage mises en oeuvre. Le premier chapitre du dossier décrit la méthodologie utilisée pour définir des revenus trimestriels à partir des revenus annuels déclarés et des informations disponibles sur le calendrier d'activité des individus et donne les premiers résultats sur les statuts d'activité, reprises d'activité, et les revenus trimestrialisés. Le deuxième chapitre présente de manière plus générale le travail réalisé pour caler le modèle sur l'ERFS 2007 et améliorer les modules d'imputation des transferts. Les performances du modèle pour évaluer les transferts sociaux et fiscaux y sont discutées. Le troisième chapitre met l'accent sur les implications de la trimestrialisation sur l'imputation du RSA, en comparant les caractéristiques des bénéficiaires selon que le rSa leurs est attribué sur un critère de ressources trimestriel ou annuel. (extrait de l'avant-propos)002B30A11SimulationSimulationSimulaciónModèleModelsModelo241 1470-0328BJOG : (Oxford. Print)1189Minimising twins in in vitro fertilisation: a modelling study assessing the costs, consequences and cost-utility of elective single versus double embryo transfer over a 20-year time horizonSCOTLAND (G. S.)MCLERNON (D.)KURINCZUK (J. J.)MCNAMEE (P.)HARRILD (K.)LYALL (H.)RAJKHOWA (M.)HAMILTON (M.)BHATTACHARYA (S.)Health Economics Research Unit, University of AberdeenAberdeenGBR1 aut.4 aut.Section of Population Health, University of AberdeenAberdeenGBR2 aut.5 aut.National Perinatal Epidemiology Unit, University of OxfordOxfordGBR3 aut.Assisted Conception Services Unit, NHS GlasgowGlasgowGBR6 aut.Birmingham Women's Fertility Centre, Birmingham Women's HospitalBirminghamGBR7 aut.Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Aberdeen Maternity HospitalAberdeenGBR8 aut.Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of AberdeenAberdeenGBR9 aut.1073-10832011ENGINIST10863540005094429800600000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.50 ref.11-0344995PABJOG : (Oxford. Print)GBRObjectives To assess the cumulative costs and consequences of double embryo transfer (DET) or elective single embryo transfer (eSET) in women commencing in vitro fertilisation (IVF) treatment aged 32, 36 and 39 years. Design Microsimulation model. Setting Three assisted reproduction centres in Scotland. Sample A total of 6153 women undergoing treatment at one of three Scottish IVF clinics, between January 1997 and June 2007. Methods A microsimulation model, populated using data inputs derived from a large clinical data set and published literature, was developed to compare the costs and consequences of using eSET or DET over multiple treatment cycles. Main outcome measures Disability-free live births; twin pregnancy rate; women's quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); health service costs. Results Not only did DET produce a higher cumulative live birth rate compared with eSET for women of all three ages, but also a higher twin pregnancy rate. Compared with eSET, DET ranged from costing an additional £27 356 per extra live birth in women commencing treatment aged 32 years, to costing £15 539 per extra live birth in 39-year-old women. DET cost ˜£28 300 and ˜£20 300 per additional QALY in women commencing treatment aged 32 and 39 years, respectively. Conclusions Considering the high twin pregnancy rate associated with DET, coupled with uncertainty surrounding QALY gains, eSET is likely to be the preferred option for most women aged ≤36 years. The cost-effectiveness of DET improves with age, and may be considered cost-effective in some groups of older women. The decision may best be considered on a case-by-case basis for women aged 37-39 years.002B20A04Jumeau02Twin02Gemelo02Procréation médicalement assistée03Assisted procreation03Procreación asistida03Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Coût06Costs06Coste06Santé publique08Public health08Salud pública08Etude comparative09Comparative study09Estudio comparativo09Dédoublement11Double11Desdoblamiento11Transfert embryon12Embryo transfer12Transferencia embrión12Gynécologie17Gynecology17Ginecología17Obstétrique18Obstetrics18Obstétrico18Economie santé37Health economy37Economía salud37234OTOOTO 0277-9536SSMDEPSoc. sci. med. : (1982)732Differences in health between Americans and Western Europeans: Effects on longevity and public financeMICHAUD (Pierre-Carl)GOLDMAN (Dana)LAKDAWALLA (Darius)GAILEY (Adam)YUHUI ZHENGUniversite du Quebec a Montréal (UQAM), Canada and RAND CorporationUSA1 aut.University of Southern California and RAND CorporationUSA2 aut.3 aut.RAND CorporationUSA4 aut.Harvard School of Public HealthUSA5 aut.254-2632011ENGINIST136893540005094659000900000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.11-0340652PASocial science & medicine : (1982)GBRIn 1975, 50 year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than most of their Western European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy had fallen behind that of most Western European countries. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily due to real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their Western European peers. We use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Western Europe. The model implies that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Western Europeans could save up to $1.1 trillion in discounted total health expenditures from 2004 to 2050.002B30A11002B30A01AEtude comparative02Comparative study02Estudio comparativo02Santé publique03Public health03Salud pública03Américain05American05Americano05EuropeNG06EuropeNG06EuropaNG06Européen08European08Europeo08Longévité09Longevity09Longevidad09Finances publiques11Public finances11Hacienda pública11Incapacité12Disability12Incapacidad12Mortalité17Mortality17Mortalidad17Epidémiologie18Epidemiology18Epidemiología18International19International19Internacional19MondeNG20WorldNG20MundoNG20Etats-UnisNG21United StatesNG21Estados UnidosNG21Médecine sociale25Social medicine25Medicina social25Homme26Human26Hombre26Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG234OTOOTO 0003-4819AIMEASAnn. intern. med.1551Personalizing Mammography by Breast Density and Other Risk Factors for Breast Cancer: Analysis of Health Benefits and Cost-EffectivenessSCHOUSBOE (John T.)KERLIKOWSKE (Karla)LOH (Andrew)CUMMINGS (Steven R.)Park Nicollet Health Services and University of MinnesotaMinneapolis, MinnesotaUSAUniversity of CaliforniaSan FranciscoUSASan Francisco Coordinating Center, California Pacific Medical Center Research InstituteSan Francisco, CaliforniaUSA10-202011ENGINIST20143540001904805800200000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.45 ref.11-0321231PAAnnals of internal medicineUSABackground: Current guidelines recommend mammography every 1 or 2 years starting at age 40 or 50 years, regardless of individual risk for breast cancer. Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of mammography by age, breast density, history of breast biopsy, family history of breast cancer, and screening interval. Design: Markov microsimulation model. Data Sources: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program, Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium, and the medical literature. Target Population: U.S. women aged 40 to 49, 50 to 59, 60 to 69, and 70 to 79 years with initial mammography at age 40 years and breast density of Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) categories 1 to 4. Time Horizon: Lifetime. Perspective: National health payer. Intervention: Mammography annually, biennially, or every 3 to 4 years or no mammography. Outcome Measures: Costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained and number of women screened over 10 years to prevent 1 death from breast cancer. Results of Base-Case Analysis: Biennial mammography cost less than $100 000 per QALY gained for women aged 40 to 79 years with BI-RADS category 3 or 4 breast density or aged 50 to 69 years with category 2 density; women aged 60 to 79 years with category 1 density and either a family history of breast cancer or a previous breast biopsy; and all women aged 40 to 79 years with both a family history of breast cancer and a previous breast biopsy, regardless of breast density. Biennial mammography cost less than $50 000 per QALY gained for women aged 40 to 49 years with category 3 or 4 breast density and either a previous breast biopsy or a family history of breast cancer. Annual mammography was not cost-effective for any group, regardless of age or breast density. Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Mammography is expensive if the disutility of false-positive mammography results and the costs of detecting nonprogressive and nonlethal invasive cancer are considered. Limitation: Results are not applicable to carriers of BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. Conclusion: Mammography screening should be personalized on the basis of a woman's age, breast density, history of breast biopsy, family history of breast cancer, and beliefs about the potential benefit and harms of screening. Primary Funding Source: Eli Lilly, Da Costa Family Foundation for Research in Breast Cancer Prevention of the California Pacific Medical Center, and Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium.002B01002B24A08002B30A01AMammographie01Mammography01Mastografía01Sein02Breast02Seno02Glande mammaire03Mammary gland03Glándula mamaria03Tumeur maligneNM04Malignant tumorNM04Tumor malignoNM04Densité05Density05Densidad05Facteur risque06Risk factor06Factor riesgo06Cancer du seinNM07Breast cancerNM07Cáncer del pechoNM07Analyse risque08Risk analysis08Análisis riesgo08Epidémiologie09Epidemiology09Epidemiología09Analyse factorielle11Factor analysis11Análisis factorial11Santé publique12Public health12Salud pública12Analyse coût efficacité17Cost efficiency analysis17Análisis costo eficacia17Economie santé18Health economy18Economía salud18Médecine19Medicine19Medicina19CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMRadiodiagnostic37Radiodiagnosis37Radiodiagnóstico37Pathologie de la glande mammaireNM38Mammary gland diseasesNM38Glándula mamaria patologíaNM38Pathologie du seinNM39Breast diseaseNM39Seno patologíaNM39220OTOOTO 0007-1250BJPYAJBr. j. psychiatry : (Print)198FEVQuantifying the effect of early retirement on the wealth of individuals with depression or other mental illnessSCHOFIELD (Deborah J.)SHRESTHA (Rupendra N.)PERCIVAL (Richard)KELLY (Simon J.)PASSEY (Megan E.)CALLANDER (Emily J.)Clinical Trials Centre and School of Public Health, University of SydneyAUS1 aut.2 aut.University of CanberraAUS3 aut.4 aut.Northern Rivers University Department of Rural Health, School of Public Health, University of SydneyAUS5 aut.Clinical Trials Centre, University of SydneyAUS6 aut.123-1282011ENGINIST39993540001936552800900000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.32 ref.11-0236070PABritish journal of psychiatry : (Print)GBRBackground In addition to the health burden caused by mental illnesses, these conditions contribute to economic disadvantage because of their impact on labour force participation. Aims To quantify the cost of lost savings and wealth to Australians aged 45-64 who retire from the labour force early because of depression or other mental illness. Method Cross-sectional analysis of the base population of Health&WealthMOD, a microsimulation model built on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers and STINMOD, an income and savings microsimulation model. Results People who are not part of the labour force because of depression or other mental illness have 78% (95% CI 92.2-37.1) and 93% (95% CI 98.4-70.5) less wealth accumulated respectively, compared with people of the same age, gender and education who are in the labour force with no chronic health condition. People who are out of the labour force as a result of depression or other mental illness are also more likely to have the wealth that they do have in cash assets, rather than higher-growth assets such as superannuation, home equity and other financial investments. Conclusions This lower accumulated wealth is likely to result in lower living standards for these individuals in the future. This will compound the impact of their condition on their health and quality of life, and put a large financial burden on the state as a result of the need to provide financial assistance for these individuals.002B18C07AAspect économique01Economic aspect01Aspecto económico01Etat dépressif02Depression02Estado depresivo02Trouble psychiatrique03Mental disorder03Trastorno psiquiátrico03Analyse quantitative04Quantitative analysis04Análisis cuantitativo04Etude transversale05Cross sectional study05Estudio transversal05Economie santé06Health economy06Economía salud06Santé mentale07Mental health07Salud mental07Environnement social08Social environment08Contexto social08AustralieNG09AustraliaNG09AustraliaNG09Adulte18Adult18Adulto18Personne âgée19Elderly19Anciano19Retraite anticipéeCD96Early retirementCD96Jubilación anticipadaCD96OcéanieNGOceaniaNGOceaniaNGHommeHumanHombreTrouble de l'humeur37Mood disorder37Trastorno humor37Santé publique38Public health38Salud pública38157 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1621The empirical relevance of the competitive storage modelTHE ECONOMICS AND ECONOMETRICS OF RISKCAFIERO (Carlo)BOBENRIETH H (Eugenio S. A.)BOBENRIETH H (Juan R. A.)WRIGHT (Brian D.)ZILBERMAN (David)ed.ZELLNER (Arnold)ed.Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico IIITA1 aut.Universidad de ConcepciónCHL2 aut.Universidad del Bío-BíoCHL3 aut.University of California at BerkeleyUSA4 aut.Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of CaliforniaBerkeleyUSA1 aut.Graduate School of Business, University of ChicagoUSA2 aut.44-542011ENGINIST164603540001928994200500000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.11-0223003PAJournal of econometricsNLDThe empirical relevance of models of competitive storage arbitrage in explaining commodity price behavior has been seriously challenged in a series of pathbreaking papers by Deaton and Laroque (1992, 1995, 1996). Here we address their major criticism, that the model is in general unable to explain the degree of serial correlation observed in the prices of twelve major commodities. First, we present a simple numerical version of their model which, contrary to Deaton and Laroque (1992), can generate the high levels of serial correlation observed in commodity prices, if it is parameterized to generate realistic levels of price variation. Then, after estimating the Deaton and Laroque (1995, 1996) model using their data set, model specification and econometric approach, we show that the use of a much finer grid to approximate the equilibrium price function yields quite different estimates for most commodities. Results are obtained for coffee, copper, jute, maize, palm oil, sugar and tin that support the specifications of the storage model with positive constant marginal storage cost and no deterioration as in Gustafson (1958a). Consumption demand has a low response to price and, except for sugar, stockouts are infrequent. The observed magnitudes of serial correlation of price match those implied by the estimated model.001A02H02N2001A02H01K001A02I01Q001A02H02IMéthode statistique01Statistical method01Método estadístico01Econométrie02Econometrics02Econometría02Analyse donnée03Data analysis03Análisis datos03Analyse numérique04Numerical analysis04Análisis numérico04Méthode stochastique05Stochastic method05Método estocástico05Méthode numérique06Numerical method06Método numérico06Analyse multivariable07Multivariate analysis07Análisis multivariable07Association statistique08Statistical association08Asociación estadística08Modèle empirique17Empirical model17Modelo empírico17Prix18Price18Precio18Estimation statistique19Statistical estimation19Estimación estadística19Spécification modèle20Model specification20Especificación modelo20Modèle économétrique21Econometric model21Modelo econométrico21Maillage22Grid pattern22Celdarada22Loi marginale23Marginal distribution23Ley marginal23Autocorrélation24Autocorrelation24Autocorrelación24Maximum vraisemblance25Maximum likelihood25Maxima verosimilitud25Simulation27Simulation27Simulación2760K30INC7065C20INC7162H20INC72Corrélation sérielleCD96Serial correlationCD96Modèle numériqueCD97Numerical modelCD97Pseudo vraisemblanceCD98PseudolikelihoodCD98150OTOOTO 0294-0337291Evaluation de l'impact des changements épidémiologiques sur la dépense de santé en France pour 2025 : approche par microsimulationTHIEBAULT (S.)VENTELOU (B.)35-67graph, tabl., annexes2011-03FREBDSP/IRDESP86, CODBAR 0065840, 00658028800dissem.11-0210355PASCIENCES SOCIALES ET SANTEFRACet article propose une méthode de prédiction de l'évolution des dépenses de santé ambulatoire sous l'effet du vieillissement de la population française à l'horizon 2025. Le modèle intègre deux indicateurs d'état de santé sur lesquels chaque agent de la base de données pourra transiter, par microsimulation, créant ainsi une dynamique épidémiologique individuelle entre bonne et mauvaise santé. A l'aide d'un modèle économétrique de consommation de biens et de services de santé, les auteurs déduisent la dépense française en santé en 2025 par aggrégation de la population représentative vieillie en 2025. Le support choisi pour la première application de l'outil est la base de données ESPS 2000 de l'Irdes appareillée avec l'échantillon permanent des assurés sociaux (EPAS). Le thème traité est l'impact de changements épidémiologiques sur le montant des dépenses ambulatoires. Ces simulations ont été réalisées pour trois scénarios épidémiologiques : scénario à dynamique épidémiologique constante, vieillissement en bonne santé et vieillissement en bonne santé+progrès médical (sans prise en compte des effets prix) (résumé de l'éditeur)002B30A11DépenseExpenditureGastoSantéHealthSaludAmbulatoireAmbulatoryAmbulatorioSoinCareCuidadoPopulationPopulationPoblaciónSénescenceSenescenceSenescenciaEpidémiologieEpidemiologyEpidemiologíaInnovationInnovationInnovaciónMédecineMedicineMedicinaIndicateurIndicatorIndicadorMorbiditéMorbidityMorbilidadClasse âgeAge distributionClase edadProjection perspectivePerspective projectionProyección perspectivaModèleModelsModeloFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG143 0361-803XAAJRDXAm. j. roentgenol. : (1976)1964A Simulation Model of Clinical and Economic Outcomes of Cardiac CT Triage of Patients With Acute Chest Pain in the Emergency DepartmentGOEHLER (Alexander)OLLENDORF (Daniel A.)JAEGER (Marie)LADAPO (Joseph)NEUMANN (Till)GAZELLE (G. Scott)PEARSON (Steven D.)Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, 101 Merrimac St, 10th FIBoston, MA 02114USA1 aut.3 aut.4 aut.6 aut.Department of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, Unit-University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and TechnologyHallAUT1 aut.Alfried Krupp von Bohlen und Halbach Foundation Chair for Health Systems Management, University of Duisburg-EssenEssenDEU1 aut.Institute for Clinical and Economic Review, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical SchoolBoston, MAUSA2 aut.7 aut.West German Heart Institute, University of EssenEssenDEU5 aut.Harvard School of Public HealthBoston, MAUSA6 aut.853-8612011ENGINIST50933540001908333701600000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.32 ref.11-0194896PAAmerican journal of roentgenology : (1976)USAOBJECTIVE. Uncertainty exists as to whether coronary CT angiography (CTA) compared with standard of care (SOC) is more effective and efficient in the triage of low-risk emergency department (ED) patients with acute chest pain. Our objective was to construct a simulation model to estimate clinical and economic outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS. We constructed a microsimulation model comparing SOC to coronary CTA-based triage of 1000 55-year-old patients (50% men) with acute chest pain, nonsignificant ECG changes, and initial negative cardiac markers. In SOC, patients were reevaluated with serial cardiac markers after 6-8 hours, followed by either nuclear stress imaging (SPECT) or stress echocardiography. In coronary CTA-based triage, patients were imaged immediately and, depending on the results, discharged, held for SPECT or stress echocardiography, or referred directly to invasive coronary angiography. RESULTS. Compared with SOC, coronary CTA-based triage reduced the number of patients referred for invasive coronary angiography from 406 (SPECT) or 370 (stress echocardiography) to 255 per 1000 and resulted in fewer &dquot;missed&dquot; cases of acute coronary syndrome overall (5 vs 18). Coronary CTA-based triage also resulted in fewer deaths (4 vs 6). Coronary CTA led to immediate discharge of 706 patients and produced average cost-savings in the ED of $851 (SPECT) or $462 (stress echocardiography) per patient. At 30 days after initial ED triage, coronary CTA-based management produced average savings of $283 (SPECT) and average costs of $292 (stress echocardiography) per patient triaged. CONCLUSION. Our model suggests that coronary CTA-based triage of low-risk patients with acute chest pain in the ED might reduce invasive catheterizations, could improve survival, and may save money.002B24A03002B12A03002B12A05Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire01Cardiovascular disease01Aparato circulatorio patología01Infarctus du myocardeNM02Myocardial infarctionNM02Infarto miocardioNM02Tomodensitométrie04Computerized axial tomography04Tomodensitometría04Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Pronostic08Prognosis08Pronóstico08Thorax09Thorax09Tórax09Douleur13Pain13Dolor13Artère coronaire14Coronary artery14Arteria coronaria14AngioscannerCD96Angiocomputed tomographyCD96Imagerie médicale37Medical imagery37Imaginería médica37Radiodiagnostic38Radiodiagnosis38Radiodiagnóstico38Angiographie39Angiography39Angiografía39Cardiopathie coronaire40Coronary heart disease40Cardiopatía coronaria40Pathologie du myocarde41Myocardial disease41Miocardio patología41129OTOOTO 0361-803XAAJRDXAm. j. roentgenol. : (1976)1964Radiation-Related Cancer Risks From CT Colonography Screening: A Risk-Benefit AnalysisBERRINGTON DE GONZALEZ (Amy)KWANG PYO KIMKNUDSEN (Amy B.)LANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris)RUTTER (Carolyn M.)SMITH-BINDMAN (Rebecca)YEE (Judy)KUNTZ (Karen M.)VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein)ZAUBER (Ann G.)BERG (Christine D.)Division of Cancer Epidemiology & Genetics, National Cancer Institute, 6120 Executive BlvdBethesda, MD 20892USA1 aut.Departmentof Nuclear Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Giheung-guYongin-si, Gyeonggi-doKOR2 aut.Massachusetts General Hospital, Institute for Technology AssessmentBoston, MAUSA3 aut.Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamNLD4 aut.9 aut.Group Health Centerfor Health StudiesSeattle, WAUSA5 aut.Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging, University of CaliforniaSan Francisco, CAUSA6 aut.Department of Radiology, Veterans Affairs Medical CenterSan Francisco, CAUSA7 aut.Division of Health Policy and Management, University of MinnesotaMinneapolis, MNUSA8 aut.Departmentof Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer CenterNew York, NYUSA10 aut.Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer InstituteBethesda, MDUSA11 aut.816-8232011ENGINIST50933540001908333701100000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.33 ref.11-0194889PAAmerican journal of roentgenology : (1976)USAOBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study was to estimate the ratio of cancers prevented to induced (benefit-risk ratio) for CT colonography (CTC) screening every 5 years from the age of 50 to 80 years. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Radiation-related cancer risk was estimated using risk projection models based on the National Research Council's Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII Committee's report and screening protocols from the American College of Radiology Imaging Network's National CT Colonography Trial. Uncertainty intervals were estimated using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Comparative modeling with three colorectal cancer microsimulation models was used to estimate the potential reduction in colorectal cancer cases and deaths. RESULTS. The estimated mean effective dose per CTC screening study was 8 mSv for women and 7 mSv for men. The estimated number of radiation-related cancers resulting from CTC screening every 5 years from the age of 50 to 80 years was 150 cases/100,000 individuals screened (95% uncertainty interval, 80-280) for men and women. The estimated number of colorectal cancers prevented by CTC every 5 years from age 50 to 80 ranged across the three microsimulation models from 3580 to 5190 cases/100,000 individuals screened, yielding a benefit-risk ratio that varied from 24:1 (95% uncertainty interval, 13:1-45:1) to 35:1 (19:1-65:1). The benefit-risk ratio for cancer deaths was even higher than the ratio for cancer cases. Inclusion of radiation-related cancer risks from CT examinations performed to follow up extracolonic findings did not materially alter the results. CONCLUSION. Concerns have been raised about recommending CTC as a routine screening tool because of potential harms including the radiation risks. Based on these models, the benefits from CTC screening every 5 years from the age of 50 to 80 years clearly outweigh the radiation risks.002B13B01002B24A04Tumeur maligneNM01Malignant tumorNM01Tumor malignoNM01Cancer colorectalNM02Colorectal cancerNM02Cancer de colon y rectoNM02Tomodensitométrie04Computerized axial tomography04Tomodensitometría04Facteur risque07Risk factor07Factor riesgo07Dépistage08Medical screening08Descubrimiento08Analyse risque09Risk analysis09Análisis riesgo09Coloscopie virtuelleCD96Virtual colonoscopyCD96CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie de l'appareil digestif37Digestive diseases37Aparato digestivo patología37Pathologie du côlon38Colonic disease38Colón patología38Pathologie de l'intestin39Intestinal disease39Intestino patología39Pathologie du rectum40Rectal disease40Recto patología40Imagerie médicale41Medical imagery41Imaginería médica41Radiodiagnostic42Radiodiagnosis42Radiodiagnóstico42129OTOOTO 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.13612Microsimulation Study of Effect of Volume and Road Width on PCU of Vehicles under Heterogeneous TrafficTHAMIZH ARASAN (V.)ARKATKAR (Shriniwas S.)Dept. of Civil Engineering, Transportation Engineering Div., Indian Institute of Technology MadrasChennai-600 036, TamilnaduIND1 aut.Civil Engineering Group, Birla Institute of Technology & SciencePilani-333031, RajasthanIND2 aut.Dept. of Civil Engineering, Transportation Engineering Div., Indian Institute of Technology MadrasChennai-600 036, TamilnaduIND2 aut.1110-11192010ENGINIST572E3540001949001100700000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.11-0142713PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAThe traffic volume and roadway capacity are the important basic inputs required for planning, analysis, and operation of roadway systems. Expressing traffic volume as number ot vehicles passing a given section of road or traffic lane per unit time will be inappropriate when several types of vehicles with widely varying static and dynamic characteristics are comprised in the traffic. The problem of measuring volume of such heterogeneous traffic has been addressed by converting different types of vehicles into equivalent passenger cars and expressing the volume in terms of passenger car unit (PCU) per hour. The vehicles of highly heterogeneous traffic such as the one prevailing on Indian roads may occupy any convenient lateral position on the road, based on the availability of space, without any lane discipline. This study is concerned with the estimation of PCU values of vehicles in such traffic conditions, using microscopic simulation. The PCU values obtained for different types of vehicles, for a wide range of traffic volume and roadway conditions, indicate that the PCU value of a vehicle significantly changes with change in traffic volume and width of roadway.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Modèle simulation02Simulation model02Modelo simulación02Vitesse déplacement03Speed03Velocidad desplazamiento03Volume trafic04Capacity of traffic04Volumen tráfico04Capacité05Capacity05Capacidad05Hétérogénéité06Heterogeneity06Heterogeneidad06Validation07Validation07Validación07Application08Application08Aplicación08Etude comparative09Comparative study09Estudio comparativo09Unité de voiture particulièreCD96Passenger car unitCD96Véhículo liviano de pasajerosCD96094PSIPSI 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1367Signal Treatments to Reduce the Likelihood of Heavy Vehicle Crashes at Intersections: Microsimulation Modeling ApproachARCHER (Jeffery)YOUNG (William)Accident Research Centre, Monash UnivVictoria 3800AUS1 aut.Dept. of Civil Engineering, Monash Univ.Victoria 3800AUS2 aut.632-6392010ENGINIST572E3540001705233400500000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.11-0139493PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSATraffic simulation modeling has been applied to many transport planning and traffic engineering situations. The further development of traffic simulation modeling to study the impact of safety measures in a systematic, rigorous, and transparent fashion is becoming increasingly viable as the models improve and the understanding of driver behavior is improving. This paper presents an application of traffic simulation to the study the safety problem of heavy vehicle red-light running at a vehicle actuated highway intersection in a metropolitan area in Australia. The processes of data collection, model calibration and validation, and evaluation are described. Modeling driver stop-or-go behavior of drivers of heavy and light vehicle in the &dquot;dilemma zone&dquot; of the vehicle actuated signal is also illustrated, along with the modeling of surrogate safety measures. Five alternative signal treatments intended to reduce heavy vehicle crash risk were considered. The results of a comparison against the existing situation showed that an extension of amber time was the most effective short-term treatment. Over the long term, however, this treatment is likely to be subject to behavioral adaptation. A green extension for heavy vehicles detected in the dilemma zone and an all-red extension for potential red-light runners were found to be treatments likely to provide a sustainable safety improvement with little impact on operational efficiency. This type of safety modeling is considered to have great potential in the future.001D15CTransport routier01Road transportation01Transporte por carretera01Poids lourd02Heavy truck02Peso pesado02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Accident circulation04Traffic accident04Accidente tráfico04Feu signalisation05Traffic lights05Semáforo05Sécurité trafic06Traffic safety06Seguridad tráfico06Intersection07Intersection07Intersección07Croisement routier08Cross roads08Intersección carretera08Traitement signal09Signal processing09Procesamiento señal09Collecte donnée10Data gathering10Recolección dato10Comportement11Behavior11Conducta11Etalonnage12Calibration12Contraste12Validation13Validation13Validación13Résultat14Result14Resultado14094PSIPSI 1778-744024-252009-01-02L'effet du vieillissement et de l'évolution de la morbidité sur les dépenses de médicamentsBARNAY (T.)THIEBAUT (S.)VENTELOU (B.)157-1862011FREBDSP/ORSPACA31498800dissem.11-0098334PAREVUE D'ECONOMIE PUBLIQUEFRANous proposons une méthode de microsimulation, mise au point par l'Inserm SE4S à partir de la littérature médicoéconomique, de l'évolution des dépenses de médicaments remboursables (en médecine de ville) sous l'effet du vieillissement et de l'évolution de l'état de santé de la population française à l'horizon 2029. » partir de l'appariement de l'Enquête sur la santé et la protection sociale (ESPS) 2004 de l'Irdes et l'Echantillon permanent d'assurés sociaux (EPAS), nous construisons 3 scenarii épidémiologiques. Nous obtenons ainsi pour les 25 ans et plus des taux de croissance annuels de dépenses en médicaments, imputables uniquement au vieillissement de la population et aux évolutions de l'état de santé, situés entre 1,14% et 1,77%002B30A11DépenseExpenditureGastoSantéHealthSaludMorbiditéMorbidityMorbilidadPersonne âgéeElderlyAncianoProjection perspectivePerspective projectionProyección perspectivaPopulationPopulationPoblaciónSénescenceSenescenceSenescenciaHommeHumanHombre066 24-25L'effet du vieillissement et de l'évolution de la morbidité sur les dépenses de médicaments remboursables en ville. Une micro simulation quinquennale (2004-2029)BARNAY (T.)THIEBAUT (S.)VENTELOU (B.)157-1862009FREBDSP/IRDES8800dissem.11-0098282PAECONOMIE PUBLIQUE - PUBLIC ECONOMICSFRACet article propose une méthode de microsimulation, mise au point par l'Inserm SE4S à partir de la littérature médicoéconomique, de l'évolution des dépenses de médicaments remboursables (en médecine de ville) sous l'effet du vieillissement et de l'évolution de l'état de santé de la population française à l'horizon 2029. » partir de l'appariement de l'Enquête sur la santé et la protection sociale (ESPS) 2004 de l'Irdes et l'Echantillon permanent d'assurés sociaux (EPAS), nous construisons 3 scenarii épidémiologiques. Nous obtenons ainsi pour les 25 ans et plus des taux de croissance annuels de dépenses en médicaments, imputables uniquement au vieillissement de la population et aux évolutions de l'état de santé, situés entre 1,14% et 1,77%002B30A11DépenseExpenditureGastoMédicamentDrugMedicamentoPopulationPopulationPoblaciónSénescenceSenescenceSenescenciaSantéHealthSaludChroniqueChronicCrónicoMaladieDiseaseEnfermedadMorbiditéMorbidityMorbilidadProspectiveProspectiveProspectivaMéthodologieMethodologyMetodologíaSimulationSimulationSimulaciónFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG066 Out-of-pocket maximum rules under a compulsory health care insurance scheme : a choice between equality and equityDEBRAND (T.)SORASITH (C.)Institut de Recherche et de Documentation en Economie de la Santé. (I.R.D.E.S.). Paris.FRA2010-11ENGIrdesParis30 p.RPBDSP/IRDESDT348800dissem.11-0098250RMFRABouclier sanitaire : choisir entre égalité et équité : une analyse à partir du modèle ARAMMISCet article cherche à mesurer, à l'aide du modèle d'Analyse des réformes de l'Assurance maladie par microsimulation statique (ARAMMIS), les effets de la mise en place d'un bouclier sanitaire financé par la suppression du régime des affections de longue durée (ALD). Notre étude repose sur la comparaison des conséquences redistributives de différentes règles de boucliers sur les restes à charge des patients dans le secteur ambulatoire en France. Nous attachons une importance particulière aux indicateurs permettant de mettre en évidence les modifications des restes à charge et de mesurer l'évolution du système en termes d'équité. Nous présentons, dans une première partie, le cadre général du système de santé en France pour mieux comprendre le contexte et les enjeux d'une refonte du mode de remboursement lié à l'Assurance maladie obligatoire. Dans une deuxième partie, nous décrivons les hypothèses retenues, la base de données et le modèle de micro-simulation. Enfin, nous consacrons la dernière partie à la présentation des principaux résultats mesurant l'impact de la réforme tant au niveau des individus qu'au niveau du système (résumé d'auteur)002B30A11DépenseExpenditureGastoSantéHealthSaludAmbulatoireAmbulatoryAmbulatorioSoinCareCuidadoSystème santéHealth systemSistema saludAssurance maladieHealth insuranceSeguro enfermedadProtection socialeWelfare aidsProtección socialLongue duréeLong lastingLarga duraciónMaladieDiseaseEnfermedadContrôleCheckControlRégulationRegulation(control)RegulaciónRevenu individuelPersonal incomeRenta personalFinancementFinancingFinanciaciónModèleModelsModeloSimulationSimulationSimulaciónMicroéconomieMicroeconomyMicroeconomíaMéthodologieMethodologyMetodologíaEtude impactImpact studyEstudio impactoFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG066 1283-4769159Apports du modèle de microsimulation Arammis : une analyse des effets redistributifs du plafonnement des restes à charge en ambulatoireDEBRAND (T.)SORASITH (C.)Institut de Recherche et de Documentation en Economie de la Santé. (I.R.D.E.S.). Paris.FRA2010-11FREIrdesParis8 p.BDSP/IRDESQES1598800dissem.11-0098249PMQUESTIONS D'ECONOMIE DE LA SANTEFRAEn France, bien qu'une grande partie des dépenses de santé soit prise en charge par le système d'Assurance maladie obligatoire, d'importants restes à charge - différence entre les dépenses de santé et les remboursements de l'Assurance maladie - peuvent persister. Dans le cadre de la réflexion engagée sur les moyens de limiter ces restes à charge &dquot;excessifs&dquot;, nous avons testé deux types de plafonnement des restes à charge, à partir du modèle de microsimulation Arammis. Nous avons simulé le remplacement du dispositif actuel de remboursement à 100% des malades en affections de longue durée (ALD) par l'instauration de deux plafonnements appliqués à l'ensemble des assurés (hors bénéficiaires de la CMU) sur les remboursements de leurs dépenses de santé en ambulatoire (hors hôpital et dépassements d'honoraires). Le premier applique un plafond identique à tous ; le deuxième établit un plafond en fonction du revenu. L'étude documente, à partir d'un modèle de microsimulation basé sur des données individuelles, deux mécanismes de plafonnements de restes à charge en ne modifiant pas les équilibres financiers de l'Assurance maladie obligatoire (résumé d'auteur)002B30A11DépenseExpenditureGastoSantéHealthSaludAmbulatoireAmbulatoryAmbulatorioSoinCareCuidadoSystème santéHealth systemSistema saludAssurance maladieHealth insuranceSeguro enfermedadProtection socialeWelfare aidsProtección socialLongue duréeLong lastingLarga duraciónMaladieDiseaseEnfermedadContrôleCheckControlRégulationRegulation(control)RegulaciónRevenu individuelPersonal incomeRenta personalFinancementFinancingFinanciaciónModèleModelsModeloSimulationSimulationSimulaciónMicroéconomieMicroeconomyMicroeconomíaMéthodologieMethodologyMetodologíaEtude impactImpact studyEstudio impactoFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG066 0008-543XCANCARCancer1173Development of an Ovarian Cancer Screening Decision Model That Incorporates Disease Heterogeneity: Implications for Potential Mortality ReductionHAVRILESKY (Laura J.)SANDERS (Gillian D.)KULASINGAM (Shalini)CHINO (Junzo P.)BERCHUCK (Andrew)MARKS (Jeffrey R.)MYERS (Evan R.)Division of Gynecologic Oncology, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Duke University Medical CenterDurham, North CarolinaUSA1 aut.5 aut.Duke Evidence Based Practice Center, Duke University Medical CenterDurham, North CarolinaUSA2 aut.7 aut.Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University Medical CenterDurham, North CarolinaUSA2 aut.Department of Medicine, Duke University Medical CenterDurham, North CarolinaUSA2 aut.Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of MinnesotaMinneapolis, MinnesotaUSA3 aut.School of Public Health, University of MinnesotaMinneapolis, MinnesotaUSA3 aut.Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical CenterDurham, North CarolinaUSA4 aut.Department of Surgery, Duke University Medical CenterDurham, North CarolinaUSA6 aut.Division of Clinical and Epidemiological Research, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Duke University Medical CenterDurham, North CarolinaUSA7 aut.545-5532011ENGINIST27013540001945961001500000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.32 ref.11-0092764PACancerUSABACKGROUND: Pathologic and genetic data suggest that epithelial ovarian cancer may consist of indolent and aggressive phenotypes. The objective of the current study was to estimate the impact of a 2-phenotype paradigm of epithelial ovarian cancer on the mortality reduction achievable using available screening technologies. METHODS: The authors modified a Markov model of ovarian cancer natural history (the 1-phenotype model) to incor_- porate aggressive and indolent phenotypes (the 2-phenotype model) based on histopathologic criteria. Stage distribution, incidence, and mortality were calibrated to data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program of the US National Cancer Institute. For validation, a Monte Carlo microsimulation (1000,000 events) of the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) multimodality prevalence screen was performed. Mortality reduction and positive predictive value (PPV) were estimated for annual screening. RESULTS: In validation against UKCTOCS data, the model-predicted percentage of screen-detected cancers diagnosed at stage I and II was 41% compared with 47% (UKCTOCS data), and the model-predicted PPV of screening was 27% compared with 35% (UKCTOCS data). The model-estimated PPV of a strategy of annual population-based screening in the United States at ages 50 to 85 years was 14%. The mortality reduction using annual postmenopausal screening was 14.7% (1-phenotype model) and 10.9% (2-phenotype model). Mortality reduction was lower with the 2-phenotype model than with the 1-phenotype model regardless of screening frequency or test sensitivity; 68% of cancer deaths are accounted for by the aggressive phenotype. CONCLUSIONS: The current analysis suggested that reductions in ovarian cancer mortality using available screening technologies on an annual basis are likely to be modest. A model that incorporated 2 clinical phenotypes of ovarian carcinoma into its natural history predicted an even smaller potential reduction in mortality because of the more frequent diagnosis of indolent cancers at early stages.002B04002B20C02Cancer de l'ovaireNM01Ovary cancerNM01Cáncer del ovarioNM01Carcinogenèse02Carcinogenesis02Carcinogénesis02Dépistage03Medical screening03Descubrimiento03Carcinome de l'ovaireNM04Ovary carcinomaNM04Carcinoma de ovarioNM04Décision05Decision05Decisión05Prise de décision06Decision making06Toma decision06Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Hétérogénéité09Heterogeneity09Heterogeneidad09Mortalité11Mortality11Mortalidad11Phénotype12Phenotype12Fenotipo12Cancérologie17Cancerology17Cancerología17Pathologie de l'appareil génital femelle37Female genital diseases37Aparato genital hembra patología37Pathologie des ovaires38Ovarian diseases38Ovario patología38Tumeur maligneNM39Malignant tumorNM39Tumor malignoNM39CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNM059OTOOTO 0162-1459JSTNALJ. Am. Stat. Assoc.105492Constrained Factor ModelsHENGHSIU TSAITSAY (Ruey S.)Institute of Statistical Science, Academia SinicaTaipei 115TWN1 aut.Econometrics and Statistics, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, 5807 S. Woodlawn AvenueChicago, IL 60637USA2 aut.1593-16052010ENGINIST30943540001935351602500000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.11-0084499PAJournal of the American Statistical AssociationUSAThis article considers estimation and applications of constrained and partially constrained factor models when the dimension of explanatory variables is high. Both the classical and approximate factor models are investigated. For estimation, we employ both the maximum likelihood and least squares methods. We show that the least squares estimation is based on constrained principal component analysis and provides consistent estimates for the model under certain conditions. The normality condition is not used in the derivation. We then propose likelihood ratio statistics to test the adequacy of factor constraints. The test statistic is developed under the normality assumption, but simulation results show that it continues to perform well even if the underlying distribution is Student-t. The constraints are useful tools to incorporate prior information or substantive theory in applications of factor models. In addition, the constraints also serve as a statistical tool to obtain parsimonious econometric models for forecasting, to simplify the interpretations of common factors, and to reduce the dimension. We use simulation and real examples to investigate the performance of constrained estimation in finite samples and to highlight the importance of noise-to-signal ratio in factor analysis. Finally, we compare the constrained model with its unconstrained counterpart both in estimation and in forecasting. This article has supplementary material online.001A02H02A001A02H02N2001A02H02G001A02H02CAnalyse numérique01Numerical analysis01Análisis numérico01Théorie contrainte02Constraint theory02Econométrie03Econometrics03Econometría03Sciences économiques04Economic sciences04Ciencias económicas04Théorie statistique05Statistical theory05Teoría estadística05Processus stochastique06Stochastic process06Proceso estocástico06Estimation statistique07Statistical estimation07Estimación estadística07Théorie prédiction08Prediction theory08Théorie filtrage09Filtering theory09Analyse multivariable10Multivariate analysis10Análisis multivariable10Analyse correspondance11Correspondence analysis11Análisis correspondencia11Algèbre linéaire numérique12Numerical linear algebra12Algebra lineal numérica12Vecteur propre13Eigenvector13Vector propio13Equation transcendante14Transcendental equation14Ecuación trascendente14Equation algébrique15Algebraic equation15Ecuación algebraica15Equation non linéaire16Non linear equation16Ecuación no lineal16Maximum vraisemblance17Maximum likelihood17Maxima verosimilitud17Fonction vraisemblance19Likelihood function19Función verosimilitud19Méthode moindre carré20Least squares method20Método cuadrado menor20Analyse composante principale21Principal component analysis21Análisis componente principal21Test rapport vraisemblance22Likelihood ratio test22Test razón verosimilitud22Méthode statistique23Statistical method23Método estadístico23Statistique test24Test statistic24Estadística test24Simulation25Simulation25Simulación25Loi Student26Student distribution26Ley Student26Information a priori27Prior information27Información a priori27Théorie information28Information theory28Teoría información28Modèle économétrique29Econometric model29Modelo econométrico29Théorie prévision30Forecasting theory30Rapport signal bruit31Signal to noise ratio31Relación señal ruido31Analyse factorielle32Factor analysis32Análisis factorial32Valeur propre33Eigenvalue33Valor propio3362F30INC7062P20INC7162B10INC7262M20INC7362H25INC7465F15INC7565H17INC76Estimation paramétriqueINC77Modèle factorielCD96Factor modelCD96Estimation sous contrainteCD97Constrained estimationCD97Echantillon finiCD98Finite sampleCD98052OTOOTO Wage Subsidies, Work Incentives, and the Reform of the Austrian Welfare SystemSTEINER (V.)WAKOLBINGER (F.)Institute for the Study of Labor. (I.Z.A.). Bonn.DEU2010-09ENGIZABonn23 p.tabl., fig.RPBDSP/IRDES8800dissem.11-0075734RMDEUSubventions salariales, incitations au travail et réforme du système de protection sociale autrichienWe analyze the labor supply and income effects of a needs-based minimum benefit system (&dquot;Bedarfsorientierte Mindestsicherung&dquot;) to be introduced in Austria by the end of this/beginning of next year. The aim of this reform is to reduce poverty as well as increasing employment rates of recipients of social assistance. On the basis of a behavioral microsimulation model we show that this new system will slightly increase incomes for the poorest households and slightly reduce labor supply due to the generous allowances for marginal employment under the current and the planned regulations of unemployment assistance. As an alternative, we analyze a reform proposal which reduces financial incentives for marginal employment not covered by social security, and rewards working longer hours by a wage subsidy. Although this alternative reform would yield modest positive labor supply effects, a relatively large number of households would suffer income losses002B30A11TravailWorkTrabajoPauvretéPovertyPobrezaEmploiEmploymentEmpleoPolitiquePolicyPolíticaRevenu individuelPersonal incomeRenta personalMénageHouseholdFamiliaDurée travailWork periodDuración trabajoEtude impactImpact studyEstudio impactoAutricheNGAustriaNGAustriaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG052 0336-1454429-430-2009Microsimulation et modèles d'agents : une approche alternative pour l'évaluation des politiques d'emploiBas salaires et marché du travailBARLET (M.)BLANCHET (D.)LE BARBANCHON (T.)Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques. (I.N.S.E.E.). Paris.FRA51-762010-08FREBDSP/IRDESS18, CODBAR 0064938, 00649368800dissem.11-0075202PAECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUEFRADe nombreux outils sont régulièrement mobilisés pour prévoir ou analyser l'effet des politiques d'emploi : modèles macroéconométriques, maquettes d'équilibre général, évaluations ex post sur séries temporelles ou sur données microéconomiques. Cet article explore une approche additionnelle, à mi-chemin des méthodes de microsimulation et des modèles dits ACE (agent-based computational economics). Le principe est de décrire le comportement des agents au niveau individuel, en prenant en compte la façon dont ils interagissent et répondent aux modifications de l'environnement économique général. On applique ce principe à la simulation dynamique des créations et destructions d'emploi, à l'appariement entre individus et postes, ainsi qu'aux comportements de négociation salariale. Ces processus se déroulent sous contrainte de profitabilité et sous une éventuelle contrainte de demande globale par type de biens/qualifications. Le modèle est calibré pour reproduire les principales caractéristiques du chômage et de l'emploi salarié privé en France, puis il est appliqué à la simulation de quelques exemples de chocs : choc démographique, choc sur le salaire minimum, politiques d'allègement de charges. Ce modèle est encore à l'état de prototype, mais il permet de retrouver les ordres de grandeur obtenus par les approches existantes et il présente un plus grand potentiel pour l'analyse détaillée des effets de ces politiques d'emploi. Une version plus élaborée pourrait donc utilement compléter la panoplie d'instruments actuellement disponibles pour l'analyse du marché du travail (résumé d'auteur)002B30A11EmploiEmploymentEmpleoPolitiquePolicyPolíticaMarché travailLabour marketMercado trabajoSalaireWageSalarioCoûtCostsCosteTravailWorkTrabajoMinimumMinimumMínimoChômageUnemploymentDesempleoCharges socialesSocial chargesCargas socialesTravailleurWorkerTrabajadorEtude impactImpact studyEstudio impactoAnalyse économiqueEconomic analysisAnálisis económicoModèleModelsModeloFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG052 0277-9536SSMDEPSoc. sci. med. : (1982)722Measuring and decomposing socioeconomic inequality in healthcare delivery: A microsimulation approach with application to the Palestinian conflict-affected fragile settingABU-ZAINEH (Mohammad)MATARIA (Awad)MOATTI (Jean-Paul)VENTELOU (Bruno)INSERM-IRD-University of the Mediterranean, Economics & Social Sciences, Health Care Systems & Societies, SE4S-Research Unit 912MarseilleFRA1 aut.Institute of Community and Public Health (ICPH), Birzeit UniversityBirzeitPSE1 aut.World Health Organization, Eastern-Mediterranean Regional Office, Unit of Health Economics; Health Care Financing, Division of Health Systems and Services Delivery (EMRO, DHS/HEC)CairoEGY2 aut.University of the Mediterranean, INSERM-IRD-SE4S/Research Unit U912MarseilleFRA3 aut.4 aut.National Center for Scientific Research, Research Group in Quantitative Economics of Aix-Marseille (CNRS-GREQAM-IDEP)MarseilleFRA4 aut.133-1412011ENGINIST136893540001935778000300000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.11-0071858PASocial science & medicine : (1982)GBRSocioeconomic-related inequalities in healthcare delivery have been extensively studied in developed countries, using standard linear models of decomposition. This paper seeks to assess equity in healthcare delivery in the particular context of the occupied Palestinian territory: the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, using a new method of decomposition based on microsimulations. Besides avoiding the 'unavoidable price' of linearity restriction that is imposed by the standard methods of decomposition, the microsimulation-based decomposition enables to circumvent the potentially contentious role of heterogeneity in behaviours and to better disentangle the various sources driving inequality in healthcare utilisation. Results suggest that the worse-off do have a disproportinately greater need for all levels of care. However with the exception of primary-level, utilisation of all levels of care appears to be significantly higher for the better-off. The microsimulation method has made it possible to identify the contributions of factors driving such pro-rich patterns. While much of the inequality in utilisation appears to be caused by the prevailing socioeconomic inequalities, detailed analysis attributes a non-trivial part (circa 30% of inequalities) to heterogeneity in healthcare-seeking behaviours across socioeconomic groups of the population. Several policy recommendations for improving equity in healthcare delivery in the occupied Palestinian territory are proposed.002B30A11Socioéconomie02Socioeconomics02Socioeconomía02Aspect économique03Economic aspect03Aspecto económico03Aspect social05Social aspect05Aspecto social05Santé publique06Public health06Salud pública06Statut socioéconomique08Socioeconomic status08Estatuto socioeconómico08Inégalité09Inequality09Desigualdad09Soin11Care11Cuidado11Palestine56412Palestine56412Palestina56412Conflit17Conflict17Conflicto17Service santé18Health service18Servicio sanidad18Modèle19Models19Modelo19Concentration20Concentration20Concentración20Indice21Index21Indice21Equité22Equity22Equidad22Pays en développement23Developing countries23Países en desarrollo23Médecine sociale25Social medicine25Medicina social25Homme26Human26Hombre26AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG045OTOOTO 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy386Pathways to a low-carbon economy for the UK with the macro-econometric E3MG modelDAGOUMAS (A. S.)BARKER (T. S.)Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR), Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, 19 Silver StreetCambridge, CB3 9EPGBR1 aut.2 aut.3067-30772010ENGINIST164173540001810501604600000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.11-0061125PAEnergy policyGBRThis paper examines different carbon pathways for achieving deep CO₂ reduction targets for the UK using a macro-econometric hybrid model E3MG, which stands for Energy-Economy-Environment Model at the Global level. The E3MG, with the UK as one of its regions, combines a top-down approach for modeling the global economy and for estimating the aggregate and disaggregate energy demand and a bottom-up approach (Energy Technology subModel, ETM) for simulating the power sector, which then provides feedback to the energy demand equations and the whole economy. The ETM submodel uses a probabilistic approach and historical data for estimating the penetration levels of the different technologies, considering their economic, technical and environmental characteristics. Three pathway scenarios (CFH, CLC and CAM) simulate the CO₂ reduction by 40%, 60% and 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels respectively and are compared with a reference scenario (REF), with no reduction target. The targets are modeled as the UK contribution to an international mitigation effort, such as achieving the G8 reduction targets, which is a more realistic political framework for the UK to move towards deep reductions rather than moving alone. This paper aims to provide modeling evidence that deep reduction targets can be met through different carbon pathways while also assessing the macroeconomic effects of the pathways on GDP and investment.001D06D11A230CarboneNC01CarbonNC01CarbonoNC01Royaume-UniNG02United KingdomNG02Reino UnidoNG02Analyse macroéconomique03Macroeconomic analysis03Análisis macroeconómico03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Modèle économétrique05Econometric model05Modelo econométrico05Lutte antipollution06Pollution control06Lucha anticontaminación06Prévention pollution07Pollution prevention07Prevención polución07Analyse économétriqueCD96Econometric analysisCD96EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG038 1536-1233IEEE trans. mob. comput.101Bidirectionally Coupled Network and Road Traffic Simulation for Improved IVC AnalysisSOMMER (Christoph)GERMAN (Reinhard)DRESSLER (Falko)Computer Networks and Communication Systems, Department of Computer Science, University of Erlangen, Martensstr 391058 ErlangenDEU1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.3-152011ENGINIST273113540001918430900100000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.39 ref.11-0054163PAIEEE transactions on mobile computingUSARecently, many efforts have been made to develop more efficient Inter-Vehicle Communication (IVC) protocols for on-demand route planning according to observed traffic congestion or incidents, as well as for safety applications. Because practical experiments are often not feasible, simulation of network protocol behavior in Vehicular Ad Hoc Network (VANET) scenarios is strongly demanded for evaluating the applicability of developed network protocols. In this work, we discuss the need for bidirectional coupling of network simulation and road traffic microsimulation for evaluating IVC protocols. As the selection of a mobility model influences the outcome of simulations to a great extent, the use of a representative model is necessary for producing meaningful evaluation results. Based on these observations, we developed the hybrid simulation framework Veins (Vehicles in Network Simulation), composed of the network simulator OMNeT++ and the road traffic simulator SUMO. In a proof-of-concept study, we demonstrate its advantages and the need for bidirectionally coupled simulation based on the evaluation of two protocols for incident warning over VANETs. With our developed methodology, we can advance the state-of-the-art in performance evaluation of IVC and provide means to evaluate developed protocols more accurately.001D04B03A001D04B02D001D04B02B001D04B03D2Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Simulation hybride02Hybrid simulation02Simulación híbrida02Protocole transmission03Transmission protocol03Protocolo transmisión03Planification04Planning04Planificación04Congestion trafic05Traffic congestion05Congestión tráfico05Sécurité06Safety06Seguridad06Protocole réseau07Network protocol07Protocolo red07Réseau ad hoc08Ad hoc network08Red ad hoc08Liaison bidirectionnelle09Bidirectional link09Unión bidireccional09Simulateur10Simulator10Simulador10Etat actuel11State of the art11Estado actual11Evaluation performance12Performance evaluation12Evaluación prestación12Télétrafic46Teletraffic46Teletráfico46Communication véhiculaireCD96Vehicular communicationCD96038OTOOTO 0049-4488TNPRDNTransportation373A comprehensive analysis of household transportation expenditures relative to other goods and services: an application to United States consumer expenditure dataFERDOUS (Nazneen)ABDUL RAWOOF PINJARIBHAT (Chandra R.)PENDYALA (Ram M.)Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, I University Station C1761Austin, TX 78712-0278USA1 aut.3 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Ave., ENC 2503Tampa, FL 33620USA2 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Arizona State University, Room ECG252Tempe, AZ 85287-5306USA4 aut.363-3902010ENGINIST159853540001811225100100000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.2 p.11-0045604PATransportationDEUThis paper proposes a multiple discrete continuous nested extreme value (MDCNEV) model to analyze household expenditures for transportation-related items in relation to a host of other consumption categories. The model system presented in this paper is capable of providing a comprehensive assessment of how household consumption patterns (including savings) would be impacted by increases in fuel prices or any other household expense. The MDCNEV model presented in this paper is estimated on disaggregate consumption data from the 2002 Consumer Expenditure Survey data of the United States. Model estimation results show that a host of household and personal socio-economic, demographic, and location variables affect the proportion of monetary resources that households allocate to various consumption categories. Sensitivity analysis conducted using the model demonstrates the applicability of the model for quantifying consumption adjustment patterns in response to rising fuel prices. It is found that households adjust their food consumption, vehicular purchases, and savings rates in the short run. In the long term, adjustments are also made to housing choices (expenses), calling for the need to ensure that fuel price effects are adequately reflected in integrated microsimulation models of land use and travel.001D15BEconomie transport01Economy of transports01Economía transporte01Dépense02Expenditure02Gasto02Ménage03Household03Familia03Méthode analyse04Analysis method04Método análisis04Application05Application05Aplicación05Consommateur06Consumer06Consumidor06Etats-UnisNG07United StatesNG07Estados UnidosNG07Carburant08Motor fuel08Carburante08Analyse donnée09Data analysis09Análisis datos09Statistique descriptive10Descriptive statistics10Estadística descriptiva10Modélisation11Modeling11Modelización11Analyse sensibilité12Sensitivity analysis12Análisis sensibilidad12Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG031PSIPSI 1740-212362Economic model system of chronic diseases in Australia: a novel approach initially focusing on diabetes and cardiovascular diseaseWALKER (Agnes)BUTLER (James R. G.)COLAGIURI (Stephen)Australian Centre for Economic Research on Health, Australian National University (ANU)Canberra ACT 0200AUS1 aut.2 aut.Institute of Obesity, Nutrition and Exercise, University of SydneyCamperdown NSW 2006AUS3 aut.137-1512010ENGINIST277723540001933121500400000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.3/411-0043376PAInternational journal of simulation & process modelling : (Print)CHEChronic diseases affect around 80% of older Australians, are main causes of premature death, and account for 70% of health expenditures. The novel features, building and validation of an Australian prototype model-system which simulates interventions that target several chronic diseases are described. Chronic disease progression models are linked to a population-wide microsimulation projection model that accounts for demographic, socio-economic and health characteristics, comorbidities, health expenditures, quality of life. It estimates costs vs. benefits of simulated policy interventions. The outcome is a validated person-level prototype able to simultaneously model diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease (CVD). An illustrative model application is also presented.001D00D002B30A01CModèle économique06Economic model06Modelo económico06Système économique07Economic system07Sistema económico07Homme08Human08Hombre08Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire09Cardiovascular disease09Aparato circulatorio patología09Politique économique10Economic policy10Política económica10Démographie11Demography11Demografía11Socioéconomie12Socioeconomics12Socioeconomía12Qualité de vie13Quality of life13Calidad vida13Coût14Costs14Coste14Politique sanitaire15Health policy15Política sanitaria15Maladie chroniqueNM20Chronic diseaseNM20Enfermedad crónicaNM20Endocrinopathie21Endocrinopathy21Endocrinopatía21Santé publique22Public health22Salud pública22Modélisation27Modeling27Modelización27Analyse économique28Economic analysis28Análisis económico28031OTOOTO 1939-4055431Examining the factors associated with depression at the small area level in Ireland using spatial microsimulation techniquesMORRISSEY (K.)HYNES (S.)CLARKE (G.)O'DONOGHUE (C.)University of Leeds, School of GeographyLondonGBR3 aut.1-227 fig., 4 tabl.2010ENGEn lignehttp://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0075077100369648910.1080/007507710036964898200Tous droits réservés © Prodig - Bibliographie Géographique Internationale (BGI), 20112 p.24026476PAIrish geographyIRLThe World Health Organisation (WHO) predicts that, world-wide, depression will be the second largest source of burden of disease by 2020. It is currently estimated that approximately 300,000 Irish people experience depression. This paper aims to address the accessibility of mental health services to individuals with depression. First, a simple logistic regression model is used to identify the determinants of depression at the national level. Secondly, the spatial distribution of individuals with depression is estimated at the small area, ED level using a spatial microsimulation model. Finally, a spatial interaction model is used to analyse access to acute inpatient facilities at the national level and community-based facilities for individuals with depression at the sub-national level. The policy implications of these results are discussed in relation to both the health care literature and current Irish health care policy531215531VI531IrlandeNG01IrelandNG01IrlandaNG01SantéNI02HealthNI02SaludNI02Politique de la santéNI03Health policyNI03Política de la saludNI03Distribution spatialeNI04Spatial distributionNI04Distribución espacialNI04Variation spatialeNI05Spatial variationNI05Variación espacialNI05Services de santéNI06Medical servicesNI06Servicios de saludNI06AccessibilitéNI07AccessibilityNI07AccesibilidadNI07Analyse régionaleNI08Regional analysisNI08Análisis regionalNI08U102!08,07,06,03!01U201!03!04,05,06FISTAS 1009-637X204Simulation on the dynamics of forest area changes in Northeast ChinaDENG (X.)JIANG (Q.)ZHAN (J.)HE (S.)LIN (Y.)Inst. of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchBeijingCHN4 aut.5 aut.Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, CASBeijingCHNGraduate Univ. of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingCHNState Key Lab. of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Normal Univ.BeijingCHN3 aut.495-5094 fig., 3 tabl.2010ENGPRODIG8200Tous droits réservés © Prodig - Bibliographie Géographique Internationale (BGI), 201132 ref.24026093PAJournal of geographical sciences. Acta geographica sinicaCHNTo explore the dynamics of forest area change in Northeast China, an econometric model is developed which is composed of three equations identifying forestry production, conversion from open forest to closed forest and conversion from other land uses to closed forest so as to explore the impacts on the forest area changes from demographic, social, economic, location and geophysical factors. On this basis, the AA. employ the Dynamics ofLand System (DLS) model to simulate land-use conversions between forest area and non-forest cover and the land-use conversions within the sub-classes of forest area for the period 2000–2020 under business as usual scenario, environmental protection scenario and economic growth scenario. The simulation results show that forest area will expand continuously and there exist various kinds of changing patterns for the sub-classes of forest area531337531VII531ForêtNI01ForestNI01BosqueNI01Dynamique de la végétationNI02Vegetation dynamicsNI02Dinámica de la vegetaciónNI02SylvicultureNI03ForestryNI03SilviculturaNI03ProductionNI04ProductionNI04ProducciónNI04Modèle économétriqueNI05Econometric modelNI05Modelo econométricoNI05SimulationNI06SimulationNI06SimulaciónNI06Utilisation du solNI07Land useNI07Aprovechamiento del sueloNI07Gestion des ressourcesNI08Resource managementNI08Gestión de los recursosNI08ChineNG09ChinaNG09ChinaNG09Chine du Nord-EstNG10North-Eastern ChinaNG10U209!10!01,02,04,05U101!02,03,05!10U107!08,03,05!10FISTAS 0894-4393Soc. sci. comput. rev.291A Dynamic MSM With Agent Elements for Spatial Demographic Forecasting : MicrosimulationWU (Belinda M.)BIRKIN (Mark H.)REES (Philip H.)University of LeedsGBR1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.145-1602011ENGINIST269033540001935977800900000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/411-0452519PASocial science computer reviewUSAIndividual-based models such as microsimulation models (MSMs) provide an alternative to macroscopic models in social simulation and modeling. In contrast to the traditional models where individual characteristics are often blurred or even disregarded, MSM provides the realistic disaggregated information that is often vital for modern policy problems. MSM has been extensively applied and well tested in social modeling. However, it has been criticized for being less strong in modeling interactions between individuals and individual behaviors. MSM also struggles where realistic micro data are not available. Agent-based models (ABMs) can model the demographic process through interactions between the agents and with the environment that they live in. The combination of MSM and ABM provides a new approach to enhance complex social modeling. In our study, we attempt to provide better groundwork to facilitate policy and decision making for the U.K. population through a hybrid model that combines the strength of the two complementary techniques.52119IV521Prévision01Forecasting01Démographie02Demography02Simulation03Simulation03Modèle04Model04Individu05Individual05Interaction06Interaction06Prise de décision07Decision Making07Royaume-UniNG08United KingdomNG08311 0894-4393Soc. sci. comput. rev.291Microsimulations for Poverty and Inequality in Mexico Using Parameters From a CGE Model : MicrosimulationORTEGA DIAZ (Araceli)Escuela de Graduados en Administración Pública y Politica Pública del Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus MonterreySan Pedro Garza Garcia, Nuevo LeonMEX1 aut.37-512011ENGINIST269033540001935977800300000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.11-0452518PASocial science computer reviewUSAIn the current article, the author uses microsimulations to analyze poverty and inequality through the accumulative impact on wages of sequential changes in the labor market unemployment rate (U), employment structure (S), wages by economic sector (WI), average labor income (W2), and employment structure by skill level (M). These effects are based on the parameters obtained from a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, with parameters allowing for simulations from 2003 to 2015. The results show that a yearly increment in the real wages will reduce extreme poverty by half. The changes in the employment structure and wages by economic sector reduce poverty in this model because workers move from the agricultural sector to the service sector, implicitly allowing workers to move from sectors with lower wages to higher wages sectors. Nevertheless, an increase in wage inequality is related to changes in the employment structure by skill level as more skilled workers obtain better wages than unskilled employees.52150XIII521MexiqueNG01MexicoNG01Pauvreté02Poverty02Inégalité03Inequality03Chômage04Unemployment04Marché du travail05Labor Market05Salaire06Salary06Simulation07Simulation07Modèle08Model08Spécialisation09Specialization09311 0894-4393Soc. sci. comput. rev.291Measuring the Size and Impact of Public Cash Support for Children in Cross-National Perspective : MicrosimulationFIGARI (Francesco)PAULUS (Alari)SUTHERTAND (Holly)Institute for Social & Economic Research (ISER), University of EssexColchesterGBR1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.Bocconi University, DONDENA Centre for Research on Social DynamicsMilanoITA1 aut.85-1022011ENGINIST269033540001935977800600000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.11-0452513PASocial science computer reviewUSAThe authors suggest a new comprehensive measure of support given through tax benefit systems to families with children. Using microsimulation techniques, this accounts for all provisions contingent on the presence of children, while usually only gross child/family benefits are considered. The authors use EUROMOD, the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model, to quantify the support for children and analyze its impact on household incomes and child poverty for 19 countries. The authors find that the conventional approach underestimates on average the total amount of support for children by about one fifth. Furthermore, the differences between two measures vary considerably across countries and are, therefore, critical for cross-national comparisons.52164XVI52132VIII521Enfant01Child01Famille02Family02Allocations familiales03Family allowance03Union européenneNG04European UnionNG04Aide sociale05Social welfare05Revenu06Income06Pauvreté07Poverty07Comparaison internationale08Crossnational Comparisons08Simulation09Simulation09311 0894-4393Soc. sci. comput. rev.291Mandatory Superannuation and Self-Sufficiency in Retirement: An Application of the APPSIM Dynamic Microsimulation Model : MicrosimulationKEEGAN (Marcia)NATSEM, University of CanberraBruceAUS1 aut.67-842011ENGINIST269033540001935977800500000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.11-0452512PASocial science computer reviewUSAOne of the most significant concerns about the aging population in Australia is the impact on pension costs. Mandatory occupational superannuation was introduced in 1993 to reduce future pension costs: a person with moderate to high levels of superannuation can provide for themselves to some extent and thus has a reduced pension entitlement. The ability of mandatory superannuation to reduce future pension costs is best modeled by dynamic microsimulation, as this takes into account the effect of numerous factors such as disability, child rearing, employment history, and life expectancy on superannuation levels. This article uses the Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model (APPSIM), a dynamic microsimulation model (DMSM), to estimate and simulate the distributional impact on superannuation savings of four different policy scenarios: higher labor force participation across the board; reduced disability among over-40s; higher labor force participation among primary carers of children; and an increase in the mandatory superannuation contribution rate.52164XVI52133AVIII521Simulation01Simulation01AustralieNG02AustraliaNG02Modèle dynamique03Dynamic Model03Retraite04Retirement04Epargne05Savings05Force de travail06Labor Force06311 0894-4393Soc. sci. comput. rev.291Primary Care in an Aging Society: Building and Testing a Microsimulation Model for Policy Purposes : MicrosimulationPEARSON (Janet)LAY-YEE (Roy)DAVIS (Peter)O'SULLIVAN (David)VON RANDOW (Martin)KERSE (Ngaire)PRADHAN (Sanat)Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences (COMPASS), University of AucklandNZL1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.5 aut.6 aut.7 aut.21-362011ENGINIST269033540001935977800200000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/411-0452510PASocial science computer reviewUSAThe authors describe the development of a microsimulation model of primary medical care in New Zealand for 2002 and demonstrate its ability to test the impact of demographic ageing, community support, and practitioner repertoire. Micro-level data were drawn from four sources: two iterations of the New Zealand Health Survey (NZHS 1996/1997 and 2002/2003); a national survey of ambulatory care in New Zealand (New Zealand National Primary Medical Care Survey [NPMCS] 2001/ 2002); and the Australian National Health Survey (ANHS). Data from the New Zealand surveys were statistically matched to create a representative synthetic base file of over 13,000 individuals. Probabilities of health experiences and general practitioner (GP) use derived from the ANHS, and of GP activity derived from the NPMCS were applied via a Monte Carlo process to create health histories for the individuals in the base file. Final health care outcomes simulated-the number of visits in a year, the distribution of health conditions, and GP activity levels-were validated against external benchmarks. Policy-relevant scenarios were demonstrated by a forward projection to 2021 and by implementing counterfactuals on key attributes of the synthetic population. The results showed little change in model-predicted health care outcomes. There is potential for this approach to address policy purposes.52163XV521Simulation01Simulation01Modèle02Model02Soin de santé primaire03Primary health care03Nouvelle-ZélandeNG04New ZealandNG04Vieillissement05Aging05Santé publique06Public Health06311 0894-4393Soc. sci. comput. rev.291What is Social Science Microsimulation? : MicrosimulationSPIELAUER (Martin)Statistics CanadaOttawa, ONCAN1 aut.9-202011ENGINIST269033540001935977800100000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.11-0452509PASocial science computer reviewUSAThis article introduces microsimulation by presenting its main underlying ideas as well as its main strengths and drawbacks. Microsimulation is currently experiencing a boom, which is driven by three main forces. The first is the increased demand of policy makers for detailed projections and models able to assess distributional and long-term sustainability issues of social security systems. The second is the emergence of new research paradigms with an increased emphasis on individuals within their context, studied from a longitudinal, multilevel perspective. The third concerns technological advances, providing not only the necessary computer power but also the programming tools for model development, accessible to scientists without specialized programming skills. Although static microsimulation models are established tools for policy analysis, dynamic microsimulation has yet to find its way into the methodological toolbox of mainstream social scientists-but the prospects are promising.52161XIV521Simulation01Simulation01Modèle02Model02Sécurité sociale03Social Security03Ordinateur04Computer04Sciences sociales05Social sciences05Méthodologie06Methodology06Technologie de pointe07State of the art technology07Programmation08Programming08311 0894-4393Soc. sci. comput. rev.291Modeling the Impact of Taxes and Transfers on Child Poverty in South Africa : MicrosimulationWILKINSON (Kate)University of OxfordGBR1 aut.127-1442011ENGINIST269033540001935977800800000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.2 p.3/411-0452507PASocial science computer reviewUSAThe research described here shows how microsimulation modeling can be used to analyze the impact of tax and transfer policy on the situation of children in South Africa. Given that the government has made explicit legislative commitments to children and that poverty rates are highest for households containing children, it might be expected that children would be a priority in policy reforms. The microsimulation model South African Microsimulation Model (SAMOD) is used to simulate certain policy reforms announced in the 2008 budget, and implemented during 2008, and explore the impact of these reforms on children and other age groups across the income distribution. A budget-neutral policy reform is also considered to determine the extent to which policy could do more to support children without adversely affecting other poor groups.52164XVI52132VIII521Enfant01Child01Pauvreté02Poverty02Afrique du SudNG03South AfricaNG03Simulation04Simulation04Modèle05Model05Taxation06Taxation06Distribution des revenus07Income Distribution07Budget08Budget08311 0894-4393Soc. sci. comput. rev.291Microsimulation of the Temporary Housing Situation Following an Urban Disaster: Case Study of an Anticipated Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake : MicrosimulationSATO (Keiichi)The University of TokyoTokyoJPN1 aut.103-1262011ENGINIST269033540001935977800700000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.11-0452501PASocial science computer reviewUSAAt present, the expected occurrence of a massive earthquake in the Tokyo metropolitan area is a matter of concern for the Japanese Cabinet Office. In the event of a major urban disaster, it is unclear whether the present policy of housing assistance will work effectively. Microsimulation is a useful research approach to make preliminary proposals for concrete policy issues. To carry out a reliable microsimulation, a household's behavior model was developed using an Internet-based questionnaire system. In addition, the microdata pertaining to rental housing and construction sites of prefabricated housing were generated. Based on these foundational works, a microsimulation model that illustrates the temporary housing situation following an urban disaster was developed. This article discusses (a) the microsimulation outline, (b) the results of calculations, and (c) the issues concerning and ways to enhance the developed model to resolve these issues.52123V52169XIX521Tremblement de terre01Earthquake01JaponNG02JapanNG02TokyoNG03TokyoNG03Simulation04Simulation04Modèle05Model05Logement06Accomodation06Anticipation07Anticipation07Questionnaire08Questionnaire08Urbanisation09Urbanization09311 0894-4393Soc. sci. comput. rev.291Household Projection and Its Application to Health/Long-Term Care Expenditures in Japan Using INAHSIM-II : MicrosimulationFUKAWA (Tetsuo)Institution for Future WelfareTokyoJPN1 aut.52-662011ENGINIST269033540001935977800400000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.11-0452500PASocial science computer reviewUSAUsing a microsimulation model named Integrated Analytical Model for Household Simulation (INAHSIM), the author conducted a household projection in Japan for the period of 2010-2050. INAHSIM-II specifically means that the initial population is created using the INAHSIM model itself. The model produces outputs such as (a) the number of the elderly according to dependency and/or living situations, (b) the relative parents/children ratio taking into account the number of brothers and sisters, and (c) a I-year transition matrix by household type. As an application of the model, a projection of health and long-term care expenditures is made for the years 2010-2050 in Japan.52163XV521Dépense01Expenditures01Santé02Health02JaponNG03JapanNG03Simulation04Simulation04Modèle05Model05Ménage06Household06Soin médical07Health Care07311 1283-4769Quest. écon. santé159Apports du modèle de microsimulation Arammis: une analyse des effets redistributifs du plafonnement des restes à charge en ambulatoireDEBRAND (Thierry)SORASITH (Christine)IrdesFRA1 aut.2 aut.1-72010FREINIST267063540001949699200100000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.11-0378953PAQuestions d'économie de la santéFRAEn France, bien qu'une grande partie des dépenses de santé soit prise en charge par le système d'Assurance maladie obligatoire, d'importants restes à charge - différence entre les dépenses de santé et les remboursements de l'Assurance maladie - peuvent persister. Dans le cadre de la réflexion engagée sur les moyens de limiter ces restes à charge « excessifs », nous avons testé deux types de plafonnement des restes à charge, à partir du modèle de microsimulation Arammis. Nous avons simulé le remplacement du dispositif actuel de remboursement à 100 % des malades en affections de longue durée (ALD) par l'instauration de deux plafonnements appliqués à l'ensemble des assurés (hors bénéficiaires de la CMU) sur les remboursements de leurs dépenses de santé en ambulatoire (hors hôpital et dépassements d'honoraires). Le premier applique un plafond identique à tous; le deuxième établit un plafond en fonction du revenu. L'étude documente, à partir d'un modèle de microsimulation basé sur des données individuelles, deux mécanismes de plafonnements de restes à charge en ne modifiant pas les équilibres financiers de l'Assurance maladie obligatoire.52163XV521FranceNG01FranceNG01Assurance maladie02Health insurance02Seguro de enfermedad02Système de santé03Health system03Dépense04Expenditures04Remboursement05Repayment05262 0277-9536SSMDEPSoc. sci. med. : (1982)732Differences in health between Americans and Western Europeans: Effects on longevity and public financeMICHAUD (Pierre-Carl)GOLDMAN (Dana)LAKDAWALLA (Darius)GAILEY (Adam)YUHUI ZHENGUniversite du Quebec a Montréal (UQAM), Canada and RAND CorporationUSA1 aut.University of Southern California and RAND CorporationUSA2 aut.3 aut.RAND CorporationUSA4 aut.Harvard School of Public HealthUSA5 aut.254-2632011ENGINIST136893540005094659000900000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.11-0340652PASocial science & medicine : (1982)GBRIn 1975, 50 year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than most of their Western European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy had fallen behind that of most Western European countries. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily due to real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their Western European peers. We use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Western Europe. The model implies that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Western Europeans could save up to $1.1 trillion in discounted total health expenditures from 2004 to 2050.760LXI760A01IEtude comparative02Comparative study02Estudio comparativo02Santé publique03Public health03Salud pública03Américain05American05Americano05EuropeNG06EuropeNG06EuropaNG06Européen08European08Europeo08Longévité09Longevity09Longevidad09Finances publiques11Public finances11Hacienda pública11Incapacité12Disability12Incapacidad12Mortalité17Mortality17Mortalidad17Epidémiologie18Epidemiology18Epidemiología18International19International19Internacional19MondeNG20WorldNG20MundoNG20Etats-UnisNG21United StatesNG21Estados UnidosNG21Médecine sociale25Social medicine25Medicina social25Homme26Human26Hombre26Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG234OTOOTO 0007-1250BJPYAJBr. j. psychiatry : (Print)198FEVQuantifying the effect of early retirement on the wealth of individuals with depression or other mental illnessSCHOFIELD (Deborah J.)SHRESTHA (Rupendra N.)PERCIVAL (Richard)KELLY (Simon J.)PASSEY (Megan E.)CALLANDER (Emily J.)Clinical Trials Centre and School of Public Health, University of SydneyAUS1 aut.2 aut.University of CanberraAUS3 aut.4 aut.Northern Rivers University Department of Rural Health, School of Public Health, University of SydneyAUS5 aut.Clinical Trials Centre, University of SydneyAUS6 aut.123-1282011ENGINIST39993540001936552800900000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.32 ref.11-0236070PABritish journal of psychiatry : (Print)GBRBackground In addition to the health burden caused by mental illnesses, these conditions contribute to economic disadvantage because of their impact on labour force participation. Aims To quantify the cost of lost savings and wealth to Australians aged 45-64 who retire from the labour force early because of depression or other mental illness. Method Cross-sectional analysis of the base population of Health&WealthMOD, a microsimulation model built on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers and STINMOD, an income and savings microsimulation model. Results People who are not part of the labour force because of depression or other mental illness have 78% (95% CI 92.2-37.1) and 93% (95% CI 98.4-70.5) less wealth accumulated respectively, compared with people of the same age, gender and education who are in the labour force with no chronic health condition. People who are out of the labour force as a result of depression or other mental illness are also more likely to have the wealth that they do have in cash assets, rather than higher-growth assets such as superannuation, home equity and other financial investments. Conclusions This lower accumulated wealth is likely to result in lower living standards for these individuals in the future. This will compound the impact of their condition on their health and quality of life, and put a large financial burden on the state as a result of the need to provide financial assistance for these individuals.770D03G01IVAspect économique01Economic aspect01Aspecto económico01Etat dépressif02Depression02Estado depresivo02Trouble psychiatrique03Mental disorder03Trastorno psiquiátrico03Analyse quantitative04Quantitative analysis04Análisis cuantitativo04Etude transversale05Cross sectional study05Estudio transversal05Economie santé06Health economy06Economía salud06Santé mentale07Mental health07Salud mental07Environnement social08Social environment08Contexto social08AustralieNG09AustraliaNG09AustraliaNG09Adulte18Adult18Adulto18Personne âgée19Elderly19Anciano19Retraite anticipéeCD96Early retirementCD96Jubilación anticipadaCD96OcéanieNGOceaniaNGOceaniaNGHommeHumanHombreTrouble de l'humeur37Mood disorder37Trastorno humor37Santé publique38Public health38Salud pública38157 0277-9536SSMDEPSoc. sci. med. : (1982)722Measuring and decomposing socioeconomic inequality in healthcare delivery: A microsimulation approach with application to the Palestinian conflict-affected fragile settingABU-ZAINEH (Mohammad)MATARIA (Awad)MOATTI (Jean-Paul)VENTELOU (Bruno)INSERM-IRD-University of the Mediterranean, Economics & Social Sciences, Health Care Systems & Societies, SE4S-Research Unit 912MarseilleFRA1 aut.Institute of Community and Public Health (ICPH), Birzeit UniversityBirzeitPSE1 aut.World Health Organization, Eastern-Mediterranean Regional Office, Unit of Health Economics; Health Care Financing, Division of Health Systems and Services Delivery (EMRO, DHS/HEC)CairoEGY2 aut.University of the Mediterranean, INSERM-IRD-SE4S/Research Unit U912MarseilleFRA3 aut.4 aut.National Center for Scientific Research, Research Group in Quantitative Economics of Aix-Marseille (CNRS-GREQAM-IDEP)MarseilleFRA4 aut.133-1412011ENGINIST136893540001935778000300000© 2011 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.11-0071858PASocial science & medicine : (1982)GBRSocioeconomic-related inequalities in healthcare delivery have been extensively studied in developed countries, using standard linear models of decomposition. This paper seeks to assess equity in healthcare delivery in the particular context of the occupied Palestinian territory: the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, using a new method of decomposition based on microsimulations. Besides avoiding the 'unavoidable price' of linearity restriction that is imposed by the standard methods of decomposition, the microsimulation-based decomposition enables to circumvent the potentially contentious role of heterogeneity in behaviours and to better disentangle the various sources driving inequality in healthcare utilisation. Results suggest that the worse-off do have a disproportinately greater need for all levels of care. However with the exception of primary-level, utilisation of all levels of care appears to be significantly higher for the better-off. The microsimulation method has made it possible to identify the contributions of factors driving such pro-rich patterns. While much of the inequality in utilisation appears to be caused by the prevailing socioeconomic inequalities, detailed analysis attributes a non-trivial part (circa 30% of inequalities) to heterogeneity in healthcare-seeking behaviours across socioeconomic groups of the population. Several policy recommendations for improving equity in healthcare delivery in the occupied Palestinian territory are proposed.760LXISocioéconomie02Socioeconomics02Socioeconomía02Aspect économique03Economic aspect03Aspecto económico03Aspect social05Social aspect05Aspecto social05Santé publique06Public health06Salud pública06Statut socioéconomique08Socioeconomic status08Estatuto socioeconómico08Inégalité09Inequality09Desigualdad09Soin11Care11Cuidado11Palestine56412Palestine56412Palestina56412Conflit17Conflict17Conflicto17Service santé18Health service18Servicio sanidad18Modèle19Models19Modelo19Concentration20Concentration20Concentración20Indice21Index21Indice21Equité22Equity22Equidad22Pays en développement23Developing countries23Países en desarrollo23Médecine sociale25Social medicine25Medicina social25Homme26Human26Hombre26AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG045OTOOTO 0959-8049Eur. j. cancer : (1990)4616Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination and screening in SpainDIAZ (Mireia)DE SANJOSE (Silvia)ORTENDAHL (Jesse)O'SHEA (Meredith)GOLDIE (Sue J.)BOSCH (F. Xavier)KIM (Jane J.)Unit of Infections and Cancer (UNIC), Cancer Epidemiology Research Program, Catalan Institute of Oncology (ICO), IDIBELL, Av. Gran Via 199-20308907 L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, BarcelonaESP1 aut.2 aut.6 aut.Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard School of Public Health, 718 Huntington Avenue, 2nd FloorBoston, MA 02115USA3 aut.4 aut.5 aut.7 aut.CIBER en Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP)BarcelonaESP2 aut.2973-29852010ENGINIST126483540001939417101500000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.46 ref.10-0509963PAEuropean journal of cancer : (1990)GBRBackground: In Spain, prophylactic vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 is being offered free-of-charge to one birth cohort of girls aged 11-14. Screening is opportunistic (annual/biannual) contributing to social and geographical disparities. Methods: A multi-HPV-type microsimulation model was calibrated to epidemiologic data from Spain utilising likelihood-based methods to assess the health and economic impact of adding HPV vaccination to cervical cancer screening. Strategies included (1) screening alone of women over age 25, varying frequency (every 1-5 years) and test (cytology, HPV DNA testing); (2) HPV vaccination of 11-year-old girls combined with screening. Outcomes included lifetime cancer risk, life expectancy, lifetime costs, number of clinical procedures and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Results: After the introduction of HPV vaccination, screening will need to continue, and strategies that incorporated HPV testing are more effective and cost-effective than those with cytology alone. For vaccinated girls, 5-year organised cytology with HPV testing as triage from ages 30 to 65 costs 24,350<euro sign> per year of life saved (YLS), assuming life-long vaccine immunity against HPV-16/18 by 3 doses with 90% coverage. Unvaccinated girls would benefit from organised cytology screening with HPV testing as triage; 5-year screening from ages 30 to 65 costs 16,060<euro sign>/YLS and 4-year screening from ages 30 to 85 costs 38,250<euro sign>/ YLS. Interventions would be cost-effective depending on the cost-effectiveness threshold and the vaccine price. Conclusions: In Spain, inequitable coverage and overuse of cytology make screening programmes inefficient. If high vaccination coverage among pre-adolescent girls is achieved, organised cytology screening with HPV triage starting at ages 30 to at least 65 every 4-5 years represents the best balance between costs and benefits.002B02002B04Cancer du col de l'utérusNM01Cervical cancerNM01Cáncer de cuello del úteroNM01Analyse coût efficacité02Cost efficiency analysis02Análisis costo eficacia02Economie santé03Health economy03Economía salud03Papillomavirus humainNW05Human papillomavirusNW05Human papillomavirusNW05Virose06Viral disease06Virosis06Vaccination08Vaccination08Vacunación08Prévention09Prevention09Prevención09Dépistage11Medical screening11Descubrimiento11EspagneNG12SpainNG12EspañaNG12Cancérologie17Cancerology17Cancerología17PapillomavirusNWPapillomavirusNWPapillomavirusNWPapovaviridaeNWPapovaviridaeNWPapovaviridaeNWVirusNWVirusNWVirusNWInfectionInfectionInfecciónEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGPathologie de l'appareil génital femelle37Female genital diseases37Aparato genital hembra patología37Pathologie du col de l'utérus38Uterine cervix diseases38Cuello útero patología38Tumeur maligneNM39Malignant tumorNM39Tumor malignoNM39CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNM341OTOOTO 0308-1060TPLTAKTransp. plann. technol. : (Print)332Microscopic simulation of transit operations: policy studies with the MISTRANSIT application programming interfaceFERNANDEZ (Rodrigo)CORTES (Cristian E.)BURGOS (Vanessa)Faculty of Engineering, Universidad de los Andes, Av. San Carlos de Apoquindo 2200Las Condes, SantiagoCHL1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de ChileSantiagoCHL2 aut.R&Q Ingenieria S.A.SantiagoCHL3 aut.157-1762010ENGINIST156323540001815695100300000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/410-0489351PATransportation planning and technology : (Print)GBRMicroscopic traffic simulators are the most advanced tools for representing the movement of vehicles on a transport network. However, the energy spent in traffic microsimulation has been mainly oriented to cars. Little interest has been devoted to more sophisticated models for simulating transit systems. Commercial software has some options to incorporate the operation of transit vehicles, but they are insufficient to properly consider a real public transport system. This paper develops an Application Programming Interface, called MIcroscopic Simulation of TRANSIT (MISTRANSIT), using the commercial microsimulator PARAllel MICroscopic Simulation. MISTRANSIT makes advances in three ways: public transport vehicles can have new characteristics; passengers are incorporated and traced as individual objects; and specific models represent the interaction between passengers and vehicles at stops. This paper presents the modelling approach as well as various experiments to illustrate the feasibility of MISTRANSIT for studying policy operations of transit systems.001D15B001D15CGestion trafic01Traffic management01Gestión tráfico01Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Arrêt autobus03Bus stop03Parada autobus03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Modèle microscopique05Microscopic model05Modelo microscópico05Transport public06Public transportation06Transporte público06Politique transport07Transportation policy07Política transporte07Application08Application08Aplicación08Programmation09Programming09Programación09Expérimentation10Experimentation10Experimentación10Exemple11Example11Ejemplo11326PSIPSI 1355-6037Heart : (Lond. 1996)9621Microsimulation and clinical outcomes analysis support a lower age threshold for use of biological valvesSTOICAL (Serban)GOLDSMITH (Kimberley)DEMIRIS (Nikolaos)PUNJABI (Prakash)BERG (Geoffrey)SHARPLES (Linda)LARGE (Stephen)Bristol Royal Children's HospitalBristolGBR1 aut.Medical Research Council Biostatistics UnitCambridgeGBR2 aut.3 aut.6 aut.Hammersmith HospitalLondonGBR4 aut.Golden Jubilee National HospitalGlasgowGBR5 aut.Papworth HospitalCambridgeGBR7 aut.1730-17362010ENGINIST39953540001924750200900000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.14 ref.10-0488667PAHeart : (London 1996)GBRObjective To characterise contemporary results of aortic valve replacement in relation to type of prosthesis and subsequent competing hazards. Methods 5470 procedures in 5433 consecutive patients with aortic valve replacement ± coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) were studied. Microsimulation of survival and valve-related outcomes was performed based on meta-analysis and patient data inputs, with separate models for age, gender and CABG. Survival was validated against the UK Heart Valve Registry. Results Patient survival at 1, 5 and 10 years was 90%, 78% and 57%, respectively. The crossover points at which bioprostheses and mechanical prostheses conferred similar life expectancy (LE) was 59 years for men and women (no significant difference between prosthesis types between the ages of 56 and 69 for men, and 58 an 63 for women). The improvement in event-free LE for mechanical valves was greater at younger ages with a crossover point of 66 years for men and 67 years for women. Long-term survival was independently influenced by age, male gender and concomitant CABG, but not by type of prosthesis. In bioprostheses the most common long-term occurrence was structural deterioration. For men aged 55, 65 and 75 at initial operation it had a lifetime incidence of 50%, 30% and 13%, respectively. The simulation output showed excellent agreement with registry data. Conclusion Bioprostheses can be implanted selectively in patients as young as 56 without significant adverse effects on life expectancy, although event-free life expectancy remains significantly lower with bioprostheses up to age of implant of 63.002B12Pronostic09Prognosis09Pronóstico09Analyse10Analysis10Análisis10Support11Support11Soporte11Age12Age12Edad12Seuil13Threshold13Umbral13Utilisation14Use14Uso14Soupape15Valve15Válvula15Appareil circulatoire16Circulatory system16Aparato circulatorio16Cardiologie17Cardiology17Cardiología17326OTOOTO 0197-6729JATRDCJ. adv. transp.442Modelling passengers, buses and stops in traffic microsimulation: review and extensionsCORTES (Cristián E.)BURGOS (Vanessa)FERNANDEZ (Rodrigo)Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, Casilla 228-3SantiagoCHL1 aut.2 aut.Faculty of Engineering, Universidad de Los Andes, San Carlos de Apoquindo 2200SantiagoCHL3 aut.72-882010ENGINIST150093540001821471900200000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.38 ref.10-0477316PAJournal of advanced transportationCANIn the last decade, significant research efforts and technology have been dedicated to the development of microsimulation tools for a better representation of traffic systems. As a result, several commercial packages appeared and they are used nowadays in the detailed modelling of different transportation systems and operations for specific project evaluations and local designs, mostly within the urban context. After reviewing the specialized literature, we realized that most of these microsimulation tools are oriented to the movement of cars, leaving the public transportation systems as a complement, just for a realistic representation of the transportation system as a whole, but always oriented to simulate cars. In this paper, the objective is to provide guidelines on how to incorporate the necessary entities and components for a proper simulation of public transport systems in a microsimulation environment. Thus, the different approaches to simulate transit systems at a microlevel are discussed, highlighting the necessity of including stops, passengers and transit vehicles explicitly as entities within the microsimulation environment, for modelling transfer operations, control strategies, etc. Several examples are then provided to quantify the impact of such representations, for different cases and potential simulation platforms.001D15C001D15B001D15ATransport routier01Road transportation01Transporte por carretera01Transport voyageur02Passenger transportation02Transporte pasajero02Transport public03Public transportation03Transporte público03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Modèle simulation05Simulation model05Modelo simulación05Arrêt autobus06Bus stop06Parada autobus06Stratégie07Strategy07Estrategia07ChiliNG08ChileNG08ChileNG08Description système09System description09Descripción sistema09Outil logiciel10Software tool10Herramienta software10Amérique du SudNGSouth AmericaNGAmerica del surNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG312PSIPSI 0027-8874J. Natl. Cancer Inst.10216Cost-Effectiveness of Computed Tomographic Colonography Screening for Colorectal Cancer in the Medicare PopulationKNUDSEN (Amy B.)LANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris)RUTTER (Carolyn M.)SAVARINO (James E.)VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein)KUNTZ (Karen M.)ZAUBER (Ann G.)Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General HospitalBoston, MAUSA1 aut.Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamNLD2 aut.5 aut.Biostatistics UnitUSA3 aut.Group Health Research InstituteSeattle, WAUSA4 aut.Division of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, University of MinnesotaMinneapolis, MNUSA6 aut.Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer CenterNew York, NYUSA7 aut.1238-12522010ENGINIST33643540001942453100400000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.65 ref.10-0456970PAJournal of the National Cancer InstituteUSABackground The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) considered whether to reimburse computed tomographic colonography (CTC) for colorectal cancer screening of Medicare enrollees. To help inform its decision, we evaluated the reimbursement rate at which CTC screening could be cost-effective compared with the colorectal cancer screening tests that are currently reimbursed by CMS and are included in most colorectal cancer screening guidelines, namely annual fecal occult blood test (FOBT), flexible sigmoidoscopy every 5 years, flexible sigmoidoscopy every 5 years in conjunction with annual FOBT, and colonoscopy every 10 years. Methods We used three independently developed microsimulation models to assess the health outcomes and costs associated with CTC screening and with currently reimbursed colorectal cancer screening tests among the average-risk Medicare population. We assumed that CTC was performed every 5 years (using test characteristics from either a Department of Defense CTC study or the National CTC Trial) and that individuals with findings of 6 mm or larger were referred to colonoscopy. We computed incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for the currently reimbursed screening tests and calculated the maximum cost per scan (ie, the threshold cost) for the CTC strategy to lie on the efficient frontier. Sensitivity analyses were performed on key parameters and assumptions. Results Assuming perfect adherence with all tests, the undiscounted number life-years gained from CTC screening ranged from 143 to 178 per 1000 65-year-olds, which was slightly less than the number of life-years gained from 10-yearly colonoscopy (152-185 per 1000 65-year-olds) and comparable to that from 5-yearly sigmoidoscopy with annual FOBT (149-177 per 1000 65-year-olds). If CTC screening was reimbursed at $488 per scan (slightly less than the reimbursement for a colonoscopy without polypectomy), it would be the most costly strategy. CTC screening could be cost-effective at $108-$205 per scan, depending on the microsimulation model used. Sensitivity analyses showed that if relative adherence to CTC screening was 25% higher than adherence to other tests, it could be cost-effective if reimbursed at $488 per scan. Conclusions CTC could be a cost-effective option for colorectal cancer screening among Medicare enrollees if the reimbursement rate per scan is substantially less than that for colonoscopy or if a large proportion of otherwise unscreened persons were to undergo screening by CTC.002B04002B13B01Cancer colorectalNM01Colorectal cancerNM01Cancer de colon y rectoNM01Analyse coût efficacité02Cost efficiency analysis02Análisis costo eficacia02Economie santé03Health economy03Economía salud03Dépistage05Medical screening05Descubrimiento05Assurance maladie06Health insurance06Seguro enfermedad06Homme08Human08Hombre08Cancérologie09Cancerology09Cancerología09Coloscopie virtuelleCD96Virtual colonoscopyCD96Imagerie médicale37Medical imagery37Imaginería médica37Radiodiagnostic38Radiodiagnosis38Radiodiagnóstico38Tomodensitométrie39Computerized axial tomography39Tomodensitometría39Pathologie de l'appareil digestif40Digestive diseases40Aparato digestivo patología40Pathologie du côlon41Colonic disease41Colón patología41Pathologie de l'intestin42Intestinal disease42Intestino patología42Tumeur maligneNM43Malignant tumorNM43Tumor malignoNM43CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie du rectum45Rectal disease45Recto patología45298OTOOTO 0733-9488JUPDDMJ. urban plann. dev.1361Calibration of Microsimulation Models for Nonlane-Based Heterogeneous Traffic at Signalized IntersectionsChallenges in Transportation Planning for Asian CitiesMATHEW (Tom V.)RADHAKRISHNAN (Padmakumar)VERMA (Ashish)ed.Transportation Systems Engineering, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology BombayPowai, Mumbai 400 076IND1 aut.2 aut.Dept. of Civil Engineering, and Center for Infrastructure, Sustainable Transportation, and Urban Planning (CiSTUP), Indian Institute of Science (IISc)Bangalore, KarnatakaIND1 aut.59-662010ENGINIST572T3540001900535500700000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.10-0439232PAJournal of urban planning and developmentUSAA significant part of the world, especially in most of the Asian countries, has heterogeneous traffic characterized by diverse vehicles, changing composition, lack of lane discipline, etc., resulting in a very complex behavior. Microsimulation is, therefore, highly suited to model such traffic. However, these models need to be calibrated before their application. Although several studies have been reported in the literature on the methodologies for calibration, all of them have focused on homogeneous traffic conditions having good lane discipline. In highly heterogeneous traffic, several other factors such as traffic composition and static and dynamic characteristics o vehicles have to be considered in the calibration process. Moreover, side-by-side stacking of vehicles across the road width occurring in the absence of lane discipline should also be modeled. Hence, a methodology for representing nonlane-based driving behavior and calibrating a microsimulation model for highly heterogeneous traffic at signalized intersection is proposed. Calibration parameters were identified using sensitivity analysis, and the optimum values for these parameters were obtained by minimizing the error between the simulated and field delay using genetic algorithm. The proposed methodology is illustrated using Verkehr in Staedten simulation, a widely used psychophysical car-following model based microsimulation software. Signalized intersections having diverse traffic and geometric characteristics from two cities of India are taken as a case study.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Intersection02Intersection02Intersección02Feu signalisation03Traffic lights03Semáforo03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Etalonnage05Calibration05Contraste05Hétérogénéité06Heterogeneity06Heterogeneidad06Optimisation07Optimization07Optimización07Retard08Delay08Retraso08Méthodologie09Methodology09Metodología09284PSIPSI 0733-9488JUPDDMJ. urban plann. dev.1361Microsimulation Study of the Effect of Exclusive Bus Lanes on Heterogeneous Traffic FlowChallenges in Transportation Planning for Asian CitiesTHAMIZH ARASAN (V.)VEDAGIRI (P.)VERMA (Ashish)ed.Transportation Engineering Div., Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology MadrasChennai 600 036IND1 aut.Transportation Engineering Div., Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology MadrasChennai 600 036IND2 aut.Dept. of Civil Engineering, and Center for Infrastructure, Sustainable Transportation, and Urban Planning (CiSTUP), Indian Institute of Science (IISc)Bangalore, KarnatakaIND1 aut.50-582010ENGINIST572T3540001900535500600000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.10-0439224PAJournal of urban planning and developmentUSAThis paper is concerned with modification and validation of a recently developed microsimulation model of heterogeneous traffic flow and application of the model to study the impact of provision of reserved bus lanes on urban roads. The impact of introduction of an exclusive bus lane is measured in terms of reduction in speed of other categories of motor vehicles, due to the consequent reduction in road space, over a wide range of traffic volume. The main finding of this paper is that if an exclusive bus lane is provided under highly heterogeneous traffic conditions (prevailing in Indian cities), then the maximum permissible volume to capacity ratio that will ensure a level of service of C for the traffic stream comprising all the motor vehicles, except the buses, in a typical eight lane divided urban road (14.5-m-wide road space per direction) is about 0.62. Through this study, a framework for justification of providing exclusive bus lane has also been defined.001D15CTransport public01Public transportation01Transporte público01Autobus02Bus02Autobus02Ecoulement trafic03Traffic flow03Flujo tráfico03Vitesse déplacement04Speed04Velocidad desplazamiento04Durée trajet05Travel time05Duración trayecto05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Gestion trafic07Traffic management07Gestión tráfico07IndeNG08IndiaNG08IndiaNG08Trafic routier09Road traffic09Tráfico carretera09Voie réservée10Priority lane10Vía prioritaria10Application11Application11Aplicación11AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG284PSIPSI 0937-941XOsteoporos. int.219Cost-effectiveness of multifaceted evidence implementation programs for the prevention of glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosisBEUKELMAN (T.)SAAG (K. G.)CURTIS (J. R.)KILGORE (M. L.)PISU (M.)University of Alabama at Birmingham Deep South Musculoskeletal Center for Education and Research on TherapeuticsBirmingham, ALUSA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.5 aut.The University of Alabama at Birmingham, 1530 3rd Avenue South MT 628Birmingham, AL 35294-4410USA5 aut.1573-15842010ENGINIST229743540001942412701300000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.60 ref.10-0431831PAOsteoporosis internationalDEUSummary Using a computer simulation model, we determined that an intervention aimed at improving the management of glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis is likely to be cost-effective to third-party health insurers only if it focuses on individuals with very high fracture risk and the proportion of prescriptions for generic bisphosphonates increases substantially. Introduction The purpose of this study is to determine whether an evidence implementation program (intervention) focused on increasing appropriate management of glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis (GIOP) might be cost-effective compared with current practice (no intervention) from the perspective of a third-party health insurer. Methods We developed a Markov microsimulation model to determine the cost-effectiveness of the intervention. The hypothetical patient cohort was of current chronic glucocorticoid users 50-65 years old and 70% female. Model parameters were derived from published literature, and sensitivity analyses were performed. Results The intervention resulted in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of $298,000 per quality adjusted life year (QALY) and $206,000 per hip fracture averted. If the cohort's baseline risk of fracture was increased by 50% (10-year cumulative incidence of hip fracture of 14%), the ICERs improved significantly: $105,000 per QALY and $137,000 per hip fracture averted. The ICERs improved significantly if the proportion of prescriptions for generic bisphosphonates was increased to 75%, with $113,000 per QALY and $77,900 per hip fracture averted. Conclusions Evidence implementation programs for the management of GIOP are likely to be cost-effective to third-party health insurers only if they are targeted at individuals with a very high risk of fracture and the proportion of prescriptions for less expensive generic bisphosphonates increases substantially.002B15A002B02LCoût07Costs07Coste07Implémentation08Implementation08Implementación08Prévention09Prevention09Prevención09Glucocorticoïde13Glucocorticoid13Glucocorticoide13Ostéoporose14Osteoporosis14Osteoporosis14Bisphosphonates15Bisphosphonates15Bisfosfonatos15Analyse avantage coût16Cost benefit analysis16Análisis coste beneficio16Rhumatologie17Rheumatology17Reumatología17Antiostéoporotique30Antiosteoporotic30Antiosteoporótico30Antiostéoclastique31Antiosteoclastic agent31Antiosteoclástica31Economie santé37Health economy37Economía salud37Pathologie du système ostéoarticulaire38Diseases of the osteoarticular system38Sistema osteoarticular patología38Santé publique39Public health39Salud pública39284OTOOTO 0002-9270Am. j. gastroenterol.1058A Decision-Analytic Evaluation of the Cost-Effectiveness of Family History-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening ProgramsRAMSEY (Scott D.)WILSCHUT (Janneke)BOER (Rob)VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein)Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research CenterSeattle, WashingtonUSA1 aut.University of WashingtonSeattle, WashingtonUSA1 aut.Erasmus UniversityRotterdamNLD2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.1861-18692010ENGINIST110623540001941709702200000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.47 ref.10-0412046PAThe American journal of gastroenterologyGBROBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of family history screening (FHS) for colorectal cancer (CRC) susceptibility at age 40 with early screening of those with increased risk. METHODS: The cost-effectiveness of several family history-based screening programs was estimated with a validated microsimulation model, using data from the SEER cancer registry, life tables, medicare records, and published data. Familial cancer syndromes were excluded. Screening programs evaluated included (i) colonoscopy screening every 10 years starting at age 50 (no family history assessment) ; (ii) colonoscopy every 10 years from age 40 for persons with a family history; (iii) colonoscopy every 5 years from age 50 for those with a family history; and (iv) colonoscopy every 5 years from age 40 for persons with a family history. In each FHS scenario, persons without a family history are screened with colonoscopy at age 50, then every 10 years to age 80. RESULTS: Compared with colonoscopy screening of all persons from age 50, the cost-effectiveness of the family history-based screening programs varied from $18,000-$51,000 per life year (LY) gained. Screening family history cases every 5 years from age 40 is more cost-effective than screening every 10 years from age 40. Reducing screening frequency for those without a family history lowers program expenditures substantially at a modest loss of LYs. The results are sensitive to the CRC risk difference between positive and negative family histories. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of CRC FHS guidelines varies widely. Economic issues should be considered before implementing family history-directed screening programs.002B13B01Cancer colorectalNM01Colorectal cancerNM01Cancer de colon y rectoNM01Coût07Costs07Coste07Etude familiale08Family study08Estudio familiar08Dépistage09Medical screening09Descubrimiento09Gastroentérologie13Gastroenterology13Gastroenterología13Economie santé37Health economy37Economía salud37Pathologie de l'appareil digestif38Digestive diseases38Aparato digestivo patología38Pathologie du côlon39Colonic disease39Colón patología39Pathologie de l'intestin40Intestinal disease40Intestino patología40Tumeur maligneNM41Malignant tumorNM41Tumor malignoNM41CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie du rectum42Rectal disease42Recto patología42Santé publique43Public health43Salud pública43270OTOOTO 1055-9965CEBPE4Cancer epidemiol. biomark. prev.198An Evidence-Based Microsimulation Model for Colorectal Cancer: Validation and ApplicationRUTTER (Carolyn M.)SAVARINO (James E.)Biostatistics Unit, Group Health Research InstituteSeattle, WashingtonUSA1 aut.2 aut.University of Washington, School of Public Health, Department of BiostatisticsSeattle, WashingtonUSA1 aut.1992-20022010ENGINIST266373540001941830101300000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.38 ref.10-0403950PACancer epidemiology, biomarkers & preventionUSABackground: The Colorectal Cancer Simulated Population model for Incidence and Natural history (CRC-SPIN) is a new microsimulation model for the natural history of colorectal cancer that can be used for comparative effectiveness studies of colorectal cancer screening modalities. Methods: CRC-SPIN simulates individual event histories associated with colorectal cancer, based on the adenoma-carcinoma sequence: adenoma initiation and growth, development of preclinical invasive colorectal cancer, development of clinically detectable colorectal cancer, death from colorectal cancer, and death from other causes. We present the CRC-SPIN structure and parameters, data used for model calibration, and model validation. We also provide basic model outputs to further describe CRC-SPIN, including annual transition probabilities between various disease states and dwell times. We conclude with a simple application that predicts the impact of a one-time colonoscopy at age 50 on the incidence of colorectal cancer assuming three different operating characteristics for colonoscopy. Results: CRC-SPIN provides good prediction of both the calibration and the validation data. Using CRC-SPIN, we predict that a one-time colonoscopy greatly reduces colorectal cancer incidence over the subsequent 35 years. Conclusions: CRC-SPIN is a valuable new tool for combining expert opinion with observational and experimental results to predict the comparative effectiveness of alternative colorectal cancer screening modalities. Impact: Microsimulation models such as CRC-SPIN can serve as a bridge between screening and treatment studies and health policy decisions by predicting the comparative effectiveness of different interventions. As such, it is critical to publish model descriptions that provide insight into underlying assumptions along with validation studies showing model performance.002B04002B13B01Cancer colorectalNM01Colorectal cancerNM01Cancer de colon y rectoNM01Médecine factuelle02Evidence-based medicine02Medicina basada en pruebas02Modèle03Models03Modelo03Validation test05Test validation05Validación prueba05Cancérologie06Cancerology06Cancerología06Pratique basée sur des preuvesEvidence-based practicePráctica basada en la evidenciaPathologie de l'appareil digestif37Digestive diseases37Aparato digestivo patología37Pathologie du côlon38Colonic disease38Colón patología38Pathologie de l'intestin39Intestinal disease39Intestino patología39Tumeur maligneNM40Malignant tumorNM40Tumor malignoNM40CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie du rectum41Rectal disease41Recto patología41263OTOOTO 0269-9370AIDS : (Lond.)2412Expanding access to HAART: a cost-effective approach for treating and preventing HIVJOHNSTON (Karissa M.)LEVY (Adrian R.)LIMA (Viviane D.)HOGG (Robert S.)TYNDALL (Mark W.)GUSTAFSON (Paul)BRIGGS (Andrew)MONTANER (Julio S.)School of Population and Public Health, University of British ColumbiaVancouverBritish ColumbiaCAN1 aut.Community Health & Epidemiology, Dalhousie UniversityHalifax, Nova ScotiaCAN2 aut.British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/ AIDS ResearchVancouver, British ColumbiaCAN3 aut.4 aut.5 aut.8 aut.Department of Statistics, University of British ColumbiaVancouver, British ColumbiaCAN6 aut.Public Health and Health Policy, University of GlasgowGlasgow, ScotlandGBR7 aut.1929-19352010ENGINIST220943540001939209201500000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.42 ref.10-0386927PAAIDS : (London)USAObjective: HIV continues to present a substantial global health burden. Given the high direct medical costs associated with the disease, prevention of new transmission is an important element in limiting economic burden. In addition to providing therapeutic benefit, treatment with HAART has potential to prevent transmission of HIV. The objective in this study was to perform an economic evaluation of the incremental net benefit associated with an intervention to expand treatment with HAART in British Columbia, Canada. Design: A mathematical model describing transmission of HIV, integrated with a microsimulation model describing the clinical and economic course of HIV. Methods: The primary outcome was the incremental net benefit of expanding treatment with HAART from 50 to 75% of clinically eligible individuals in British Columbia, assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$ 50000 per quality-adjusted life year. Direct medical costs included were antiretroviral and nonantiretroviral medications, hospitalizations, physician visits, and laboratory tests. The mathematical and microsimulation models were based on patient characteristics observed in British Columbia. Longitudinal data described health services utilization, clinical progression, and survival for all individuals receiving treatment for HIV in British Columbia. Results: Over 30 years, the HAART expansion scenario was associated with a net benefit of US$ 900 million (95% confidence interval US$ 493 million to 1.45 billion). Conclusion: Increasing the HAART treatment rate from 50 to 75% of clinically eligible individuals in British Columbia appears to be a cost-effective strategy based on this model. These cost-effectiveness results are consistent with public health objectives: all individuals who are eligible for an established life-saving treatment should receive it.002B05C02D002B02S05002B06D01SIDA01AIDS01SIDA01Chimiothérapie04Chemotherapy04Quimioterapia04Antiviral05Antiviral05Antiviral05Accessibilité07Accessibility07Accesibilidad07Coût09Costs09Coste09Virus immunodéficience humaineNW10Human immunodeficiency virusNW10Human immunodeficiency virusNW10Prévention13Prevention13Prevención13Modèle mathématique14Mathematical model14Modelo matemático14Protocole HAARTINC86ViroseViral diseaseVirosisInfectionInfectionInfecciónTraitementTreatmentTratamientoLentivirusNWLentivirusNWLentivirusNWRetroviridaeNWRetroviridaeNWRetroviridaeNWVirusNWVirusNWVirusNWEconomie santé37Health economy37Economía salud37Immunodéficit38Immune deficiency38Inmunodeficiencia38Immunopathologie40Immunopathology40Inmunopatología40Santé publique41Public health41Salud pública41249OTOOTO 0002-9394AJOPAAAm. j. ophthalmol.1501The Increased Cost of Medical Services for People Diagnosed With Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma: A Decision Analytic ApproachKYMES (Steven M.)PLOTZKE (Michael R.)LI (Jim Z.)NICHOL (Michael B.)WU (Joanne)FAIN (Joel)Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, Washington University School of MedicineSt. Louis, MissouriUSA1 aut.Division of Economics, Washington University School of MedicineSt. Louis, MissouriUSA2 aut.Center for Health Policy, Washington University School of MedicineSt. Louis, MissouriUSA1 aut.Abt Associates, IncCambridge, MassachusettsUSA2 aut.Global Outcomes Research, Pfizer, IncSan Diego, CaliforniaUSA3 aut.6 aut.Pharmaceutical Economics and Policy, University of Southern California School of PharmacyLos Angeles, CaliforniaUSA4 aut.5 aut.74-812010ENGINIST20123540001947189601400000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.32 ref.10-0364559PAAmerican journal of ophthalmologyUSA• PURPOSE: Glaucoma accounts for more than 11 % of all cases of blindness in the United States, but there have been few studies of economic impact. We examine incremental cost of primary open-angle glaucoma considering both visual and nonvisual medical costs over a lifetime of glaucoma. • DESIGN: A decision analytic approach taking the pay-or's perspective with microsimulation estimation. • METHODS: We constructed a Markov model to replicate health events over the remaining lifetime of someone newly diagnosed with glaucoma. Costs of this group were compared with those estimated for a control group without glaucoma. The cost of management of glaucoma (including medications) before the onset of visual impairment was not considered. The model was populated with probability data estimated from Medicare claims data ( 1999 through 2005). Cost of nonocular medications and nursing home use was estimated from California Medicare claims, and all other costs were estimated from Medicare claims data. • RESULTS: We found modest differences in the incidence of comorbid conditions and health service use between people with glaucoma and the control group. Over their expected lifetime, the cost of care for people with primary open-angle glaucoma was higher than that of people without primary open-angle glaucoma by $1688 or approximately $137 per year. • CONCLUSIONS: Among Medicare beneficiaries, glaucoma diagnosis not found to be associated with significant risk of comorbidities before development of visual impairment. Further study is necessary to consider the impact of glaucoma on quality of life, as well as aspects of physical and visual function not captured in this claims-based analysis.002B09N002B09JGlaucome à angle ouvert01Open angle glaucoma01Glaucoma ángulo abierto01Coût09Costs09Coste09Economie santé10Health economy10Economía salud10Médecine11Medicine11Medicina11Diagnostic12Diagnosis12Diagnóstico12Primaire13Primary13Primario13Voie abord14Surgical approach14Vía abordaje14Ophtalmologie15Ophthalmology15Oftalmología15Pathologie de l'oeil37Eye disease37Ojo patología37235OTOOTO 8756-3282Bone : (NY NY)471Potential cost-effectiveness of denosumab for the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporotic womenHILIGSMANN (Mickaël)REGINSTER (Jean-Yves)HEC-ULg Management School, University of LiègeLiègeBEL1 aut.Department of Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics, University of LiègeLiègeBEL1 aut.2 aut.34-402010ENGINIST190413540001817857500400000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.52 ref.10-0341532PABone : (New York, NY)USADenosumab has recently been shown to be safe and to significantly reduce the risk of vertebral, hip and non-vertebral fractures in the &dquot;Fracture REduction Evaluation of Denosumab in Osteoporosis every 6 Months&dquot; (FREEDOM) Trial. Besides the clinical profile of a new drug, it becomes increasingly important to assess whether the drug represents good value for money. This study aims to examine the potential cost-effectiveness of denosumab in the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporotic women. An updated version of a validated Markov microsimulation model was used to estimate the cost (<euro sign>2009) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained of a 3-year denosumab treatment compared with no treatment. The model was populated with cost and epidemiological data for Belgium from a health-care perspective and the base-case population was defined from the FREEDOM Trial. The effect of denosumab after treatment cessation was conservatively assumed to decline linearly over 1 year. Uncertainty was investigated using one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. In particular, additional analyses were performed in populations (over 60 years) where osteoporosis medications are currently reimbursed in many European countries, i.e. with bone mineral density (BMD) T-score≤-2.5 or prevalent vertebral fracture. In the base-case analysis, the cost per QALY gained of denosumab compared with no treatment was estimated at <euro sign>28,441. This value decreased to <euro sign>15,532 and to <euro sign>11,603 for women with a BMD T-score of - 2.5 or prevalent vertebral fracture, respectively. Additional analyses showed that the cost-effectiveness of denosumab fall below commonly accepted threshold of <euro sign>30,000 per QALY gained for women with a BMD T-score ≤-2.5 or prevalent vertebral fracture, over the entire age range examined (60-80 years). The results were robust under a wide range of plausible assumptions. In conclusion, this study suggests, on the basis of currently available data, that denosumab is cost-effective compared with no treatment for postmenopausal Belgian women with low bone mass and who are similar to patients included in the FREEDOM Trial. In addition, denosumab was found to be cost-effective in population currently reimbursed in Europe with T-score ≤-2.5 or prevalent vertebral fracture, aged 60 years and above. Additional data are needed on the relative cost-effectiveness compared with other anti-osteoporotic agents and on the long-term safety of denosumab.002A16002B15A002B02QOstéoporose01Osteoporosis01Osteoporosis01DénosumabFR04DenosumabFR04DenosumabFR04Coût07Costs07Coste07Traitement08Treatment08Tratamiento08Postménopause09Postmenopause09Postmenopausia09Femme13Woman13Mujer13Morphologie15Morphology15Morfología15Immunomodulateur30Immunomodulator30Inmunomodulador30HommeHumanHombreEconomie santé37Health economy37Economía salud37Pathologie du système ostéoarticulaire38Diseases of the osteoarticular system38Sistema osteoarticular patología38Santé publique39Public health39Salud pública39221OTOOTO 1076-0342JITSE4J. infrastruct. syst.154Simulating Heterogeneous Traffic Flow on Roads with and without Bus Lanes : Transportation Infrastructure Planning, Management, and FinanceTHAMIZH ARASAN (V.)VEDAGIRI (P.)Transportation Engineering Div., Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology MadrasChennai 600036IND1 aut.2 aut.305-3122009ENGINIST262693540001865878200600000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.10-0333077PAJournal of infrastructure systemsUSAExclusive bus lanes are intended to enhance the level of service of bus transport in terms of speed, reliability, safety, etc. This paper is concerned with application of a newly developed microsimulation technique to study the effect of provision of reserved bus lanes on the flow of nonlane-based heterogeneous traffic on urban roads in India. The aim of the study reported here is to modify and validate a newly developed simulation model of heterogeneous traffic flow using field observed data and to apply the validated model to study the effect of exclusive bus lanes on traffic flow. The effect is measured in terms of the reduction in the speeds of other categories of vehicles due to the possible reduction in the available road space for these vehicles. The results of the study indicate that it is possible to introduce exclusive bus lanes on carefully selected urban roads to enhance the level of service of bus, simultaneously ensuring a satisfactory level of service to the other vehicles on the road.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Ecoulement trafic02Traffic flow02Flujo tráfico02Gestion trafic03Traffic management03Gestión tráfico03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Autobus05Bus05Autobus05Validation06Validation06Validación06Application07Application07Aplicación07214PSIPSI 0306-2619APENDXAppl. energy871The oil stock fluctuations in the United StatesHAYAT (Aziz)PARESH KUMAR NARAYANSchool of Accounting, Economics and Finance Deakin UniversityVIC 3125AUS1 aut.2 aut.178-1842010ENGINIST171623540001814972502200000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.28 ref.10-0311428PPRAApplied energyGBRThe goal of this paper is to examine whether the volatility of the growth in the US oil stocks has changed overtime, and if it has then whether or not this change is real. We find that the growth in volatility of oil stocks has declined overtime. We conduct a Monte Carlo simulation exercise to investigate whether this decline is real or an artefact of the growth definition. Our findings support the fact that the decline in growth volatility of oil stocks is an artefact of the growth definition. This is because a data generating process having a unit root with drift has a tendency to grow and thereby pulls the variance of growth down with time.001D06A01C2B001D06A01A230Economie pétrolière01Oil economy01Economía petrolera01PétroleFX02PetroleumFX02PetróleoFX02Stock03Stock03Existencias03Etats-UnisNG04United StatesNG04Estados UnidosNG04Volatilité05Volatility05Volatibilidad05Modèle économétrique06Econometric model06Modelo econométrico06Modélisation07Modeling07Modelización07Méthode Monte Carlo08Monte Carlo method08Método Monte Carlo08Racine unitaire09Unit root09Raíz unitaria09Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG193 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1571Indirect inference in structural econometric modelsNonlinear and Nonparametric Methods in EconometricsTONG LICHEN (Songnian)ed.LI (Qi)ed.Department of Economics, Vanderbilt UniversityUSA1 aut.Department of Economics, Hong Kong University of Science and TechnologyHong KongCHN1 aut.Singapore National UniversitySGP1 aut.Department of Economics, Texas A&M UniversityUSA2 aut.120-1282010ENGINIST164603540001930499801000000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.10-0303724PAJournal of econometricsNLDThis paper considers parametric inference in a wide range of structural econometric models. It illustrates how the indirect inference principle can be used in the inference of these models. Specifically, we show that an ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation can be used as an auxiliary model, which leads to a method that is similar in spirit to a two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimator. Monte Carlo studies and an empirical analysis of timber sale auctions held in Oregon illustrate the usefulness and feasibility of our approach.001A02H02N2001A02H02G001A02H02F001A02I01QMéthode statistique01Statistical method01Método estadístico01Econométrie02Econometrics02Econometría02Analyse donnée03Data analysis03Análisis datos03Distribution statistique04Statistical distribution04Distribución estadística04Théorie approximation05Approximation theory05Analyse numérique06Numerical analysis06Análisis numérico06Méthode stochastique07Stochastic method07Método estocástico07Estimation non paramétrique08Non parametric estimation08Estimación no paramétrica08Estimation statistique17Statistical estimation17Estimación estadística17Modèle structure18Structural model18Modelo estructura18Modèle économétrique19Econometric model19Modelo econométrico19Méthode paramétrique20Parametric method20Método paramétrico20Méthode moindre carré21Least squares method21Método cuadrado menor21Méthode Monte Carlo22Monte Carlo method22Método Monte Carlo22Vente23Sales23Venta23Ajustement modèle24Model matching24Ajustamiento modelo24Simulation25Simulation25Simulación2562FxxINC7062E17INC7165C05INC7262G05INC73Inférence paramétriqueCD96Parametric inferenceCD96EnchèreCD97AuctionCD97193OTOOTO 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1356Microscopic Dual-Regime Model for Single-Lane RoundaboutsCHEVALLIER (Estelle)LECLERCQ (Ludovic)Laboratoire d'Ingénierie Circulation Transport, LICIT-ENTPE/ INRETS-Univ. de Lyon, Rue Maurice Audin69518 Vaulx-en-VelinFRA1 aut.Laboratoire d'Ingénierie Circulation Transport, LICIT-ENTPE/ INRETS-Univ. de Lyon, Rue Maurice Audin69518 Vaulx-en-VelinFRA2 aut.386-3942009ENGINIST572E3540001879193000800000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.10-0285680PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAMost of microsimulation tools used to model roundabouts encompass classical gap-acceptance algorithms to represent the insertion of approaching vehicles into the circulatory roadway. However, these algorithms fail to reproduce the mean priority sharing process experimentally observed when the circulatory roadway is congested. This paper fills this shortage by proposing an integrated microscopic framework with: (1) a gap-acceptance algorithm giving relevant capacity estimates in uncongested regime; and (2) a probabilistic rate-based insertion decision module in congested regime. In this framework the car-following model can be implemented independently of the insertion decision-making process. Moreover, its direct influence on the insertion decision model is released in congested regime thanks to a relaxation procedure. The obtained simulation results are convincing compared to on-field data collected at different sites for both peak and off-peak periods.001D15C001D15B001D14O02295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Modèle microscopique02Microscopic model02Modelo microscópico02Carrefour giratoire03Roundabout03Bifurcación giratoria03Gestion trafic04Traffic management04Gestión tráfico04Intersection05Intersection05Intersección05Etalonnage06Calibration06Contraste06Ecoulement trafic07Traffic flow07Flujo tráfico07Congestion trafic08Traffic congestion08Congestión tráfico08Validation09Validation09Validación09186PSIPSI 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1356Pedestrian and Vehicle Flow Calibration in Multimodal Traffic MicrosimulationMOAZZAM ISHAQUE (Muhammad)NOLAND (Robert B.)EDS, an HP Company, Durham HouseWashington, Tyne and Wear, NE38 7SDGBR1 aut.Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center, Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers Univ.New Brunswick, NJ 08901USA2 aut.338-3482009ENGINIST572E3540001879193000300000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.10-0285672PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAThis paper provides a method for including pedestrians in a vehicle microsimulation model, specifically the VISSIM model. VISSIM provides a default mechanism for simulating pedestrian movements; however, this does not adequately replicate pedestrian behavior. We instead define pedestrians as vehicles and calibrate various parameters within VISSIM so that pedestrian behavior is calibrated with pedestrian speed-flow models. We validate and refine these parameters using a real traffic network with high levels of pedestrian traffic crossing at signalized junctions. This work demonstrates the feasibility of modeling vehicle-pedestrian interactions in a realistic manner and provides analysts with a tool for evaluating policies that affect both vehicle and pedestrian flows.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Ecoulement trafic03Traffic flow03Flujo tráfico03Trafic piéton04Pedestrian traffic04Tráfico peatones04Véhicule routier05Road vehicle05Vehículo caminero05Etalonnage06Calibration06Contraste06Collecte donnée07Data gathering07Recolección dato07Durée trajet08Travel time08Duración trayecto08Géométrie09Geometry09Geometría09Vitesse déplacement10Speed10Velocidad desplazamiento10Transport multimodal11Multimodal transportation11Transporte multimodal11Application12Application12Aplicación12186PSIPSI 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1365Real-Time Crash Risk Reduction on Freeways Using Coordinated and Uncoordinated Ramp Metering ApproachesApplications of Advanced Technologies in TransportationABDEL-ATY (Mohamed)GAYAH (Vikash)KARLAFTIS (Matthew)ed.Dept. of Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering, Univ. of Central FloridaOrlando, FL 32816-2450USA1 aut.Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of CaliforniaBerkeley, CA 94720USA2 aut.410-4232010ENGINIST572E3540001810329200200000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.10-0285452PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAThis study was conducted to examine the ability of two ramp metering strategies at reducing the real-time crash risk along a typical urban freeway. The strategies were tested using a simulated freeway network of Interstate-4 in Orlando, Fla. created in PARAM-ICS microsimulation. Measurements of the crash risk along the freeway were estimated using models created by the first writer which calculate rear-end and lane-change risks along the freeway using offline geometric characteristics and real-time loop detector data. The ramp metering strategies tested were the uncoordinated ALINEA algorithm and the coordinated Zone ramp metering algorithm. Additionally, two implementation methods of these algorithms were examined: the traffic-cycle realization which allows vehicles to enter the network in platoons and the one-car-per-cycle (OCPC) realization which allows a single vehicle to enter the freeway per traffic cycle. This study shows that the ALINEA and Zone algorithms both successfully reduce the real-time crash risk along the freeway. Comparing the two implementation methods, the traffic-cycle realization provides better safety and operational benefits than the OCPC realization. However, the OCPC realization provides better safety benefits when applied with the ALINEA algorithm. In general, the ALINEA algorithm performs better using shorter cycle lengths while the Zone algorithm performs best using longer cycle lengths. Comparing the two metering algorithms, the ALINEA algorithm proves to be superior to the Zone algorithm in providing the best overall safety benefits since it is more restrictive and generally allows fewer vehicles onto the network. However, at the 90% loading scenario, evidence of crash risk migration (the lowering of crash risk at one location combined with the increase at another) appears when the ALINEA algorithm is applied. This crash risk migration is a function of the specific geometry and demand patterns of the network used and is reduced by applying the Zone algorithm. This shows that while the ALINEA algorithm provides better overall results, there are cases where a less restrictive algorithm would perform better from a safety perspective.001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Sécurité trafic02Traffic safety02Seguridad tráfico02Autoroute03Freeway03Autopista03Comptage04Counting04Contaje04Temps réel05Real time05Tiempo real05Accident circulation06Traffic accident06Accidente tráfico06Risque accidentel07Hazard07Riesgo accidente07Simulation08Simulation08Simulación08Stratégie09Strategy09Estrategia09Mesure10Measurement10Medida10Efficacité11Efficiency11Eficacia11Etude comparative12Comparative study12Estudio comparativo12Application14Application14Aplicación14Technologie avancée15Advanced technology15Tecnología avanzada15186PSIPSI 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1363Interactive Process of Microsimulation and Logistic Regression for Short-Term Work Zone Traffic DiversionYALI CHENXIAO QINNOYCE (David A.)LEE (Chanyoung)Geotrans & Geography Dept., Univ. of CaliforniaSanta BarbaraUSA1 aut.CEH 148, Box 2219, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, South Dakota Univ.Brookings, SD 57007USA2 aut.Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, 1415 Engineering Dr.Madison, WI 53706USA3 aut.Center of Urban Transportation Research, Univ. of South Florida, 4202 East Fowler Ave., CUT100Tampa, FL 33620-5375USA4 aut.243-2542010ENGINIST572E3540001814046800900000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.10-0284362PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAThe rapidly growing number of work zones on national highways is having significant operational impacts due to the temporary loss of capacity. Work zone impact on safety and mobility creates a strong need to alleviate work zone congestion and protect road users and workers, which requires a sufficient understanding of work zone impact on traffic flow. Previous studies and field observations demonstrated the importance of considering diversion phenomena when performing work zone impact analysis. To overcome the limitations of deterministic queuing approaches applied in most work zone impact analysis tools, an interactive process combining microsimulation and logistic regression was developed to imitate diversion behavior dynamically in the upstream of work zones with a number of entrance and exit ramps. Specifically, the logistic regression model based on the field observations was incorporated into a well-calibrated VISSIM model to simulate traffic flow in work zones with diversion behavior. The integration of the two models was achieved via the development of diversion calculation module using a COM interface provided by VISSIM. The comparison between simulated results and field observations suggested that the diversion calculation module using logistic regression can simulate the queue propagation process due to lane closure in an efficient and effective manner. It was demonstrated that the interactive process can improve work zone impact analysis by using real-time traffic feedback information to emulate the diversion phenomenon upstream of work zones.001D14O06001D15C001D15B295Construction routière01Road construction01Construcción carretera01Gestion trafic02Traffic management02Gestión tráfico02Trafic routier03Road traffic03Tráfico carretera03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Régression logistique05Logistic regression05Regresión logística05Lieu travail06Work place06Lugar trabajo06Analyse site07Site analysis07Análisis emplazamiento07Collecte donnée08Data gathering08Recolección dato08Implémentation09Implementation09Implementación09186PSIPSI 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.13510Desired Time Gap and Time Headway in Steady-State Car-Following on Two-Lane RoadsPRATIM DEY (Partha)CHANDRA (Satish)Dept. of Civil Engineering, National Institute of TechnologyDurgapur, 713209 West BengalIND1 aut.Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of TechnologyRoorkee 247667IND2 aut.687-6932009ENGINIST572E3540001702228700200000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.10-0284206PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSATwo continuous statistical distribution models, gamma and lognormal, are proposed for desired time gap (T_X) and time headway (T) of drivers in a steady car-following state on two-lane roads under mixed traffic conditions. A simulation program was developed for traffic movement on two-lane roads incorporating actual behavior of mixed traffic in terms of speed, placement, arrival pattern, and overtaking behavior. The program was run at 50/50 directional distribution with varying traffic composition and volume level. Headway data obtained from simulation runs are analyzed to develop a relationship between the desired time gap (T_X) and the speed of the vehicles for five categories of vehicles, namely, car, heavy vehicle, motorized two-wheeler, three-wheeler, and tractor. It is observed that the desired time gap of a two-wheeler is the minimum of all other categories of vehicles. It is due to their better maneuverability, which allows them to maintain shorter gaps. The desired time gap for tractors is the maximum of all vehicles, which is due to their low acceleration capability and poor braking efficiency. These relationships will be extremely useful in developing the microsimulation models of traffic flow on two-lane highways.001D15BGestion trafic01Traffic management01Gestión tráfico01Ecoulement trafic02Traffic flow02Flujo tráfico02Régime permanent03Steady state03Régimen permanente03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Modèle simulation05Simulation model05Modelo simulación05Vitesse déplacement06Speed06Velocidad desplazamiento06Suivi de véhiculeCD96Car followingCD96186PSIPSI 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1358Using M/M/∞ Queueing Model in On-Street Parking ManeuversLBEAS PORTILLA (Angel)ALONSO ORENA (Borja)MOURA BERODIA (José Luis)RUISANCHEZ DIAZ (Francisco José)Univ. of CantabriaESP1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.527-5352009ENGINIST572E3540001708830400400000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.10-0284037PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAThis paper quantifies the influence badly parked vehicles and on-street parking maneuvers have on average link journey times as a function of the duration of the events and the number of designated maneuvers and flow, by applying an M / M / ∞ queueing model in which arrival and departure are all Poisson processes. The method has been validated using microsimulations calibrated by in-situ measurements taken in the streets of the city of Santander (Cantabria, Spain). The analysis on the delays shows a good fit for the M / M / ∞ model for flows of 60-70% of capacity where the error is always lower than 5%. This demonstrates the efficiency of the M/ M/ ∞ model for studying how on-street parking maneuvers and badly parked vehicles influence traffic flow and avoids the need to use generally more laborious microsimulation models. Microsimulations are used to calculate the reduction in link capacity for each case in the study and the increases in average journey times for the rest of the road users. This shows the effect that allowing on-street parking on arterial or main roads has on the rest of the traffic.001D15C001D15B001D14I04J295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Gestion trafic02Traffic management02Gestión tráfico02Parc stationnement03Parking lot03Parque estacionamiento03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Système attente05Queueing system05Sistema fila espera05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Manoeuvrabilité07Maneuverability07Maniobrabilidad07186PSIPSI 1366-7017Water policy114Programming a spatial water model for improving water efficiency in ChinaLAN FANGNUPPENAU (Ernst-August)Institute of Agricultural Policy and Market Research, University of CiessenGiessen, 35390DEU2 aut.504-5232009ENGINIST270963540001708110100800000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/410-0281248PAWater policyGBRThis paper deals with heavy pressures to save water in natural resource management due to increased water scarcity. We take the example of a Chinese watershed and investigate the water use efficiency in Chinese irrigated agriculture through a field study as dependent on investments in on-farm water saving technologies and canal water conveyance. The economic and environmental impacts of farmers adopting modern irrigation technologies and public sectors improving water transit systems are studied in particular. A spatial mathematical programming model is employed for optimization. The emphasis is on private and public investments in water saving. Water saving in a canal system enables an extension of the system and provides food and income for more farmers. The model results are of great value for policy makers and project managers, who want to optimize irrigation projects, because scenarios (for instance water and product pricing) are provided. We also provide references for farmers in applying suitable irrigation technologies.001D14J01295Gestion eau01Water management01Gestión del agua01ChineNG02ChinaNG02ChinaNG02Investissement privé03Private investment03Inversión privada03Investissement public04Public investment04Inversión pública04Programmation05Programming05Programación05Modèle spatial06Spatial model06Modelo espacial06Utilisation07Use07Uso07Enquête08Survey08Encuesta08Modèle économétrique09Econometric model09Modelo econométrico09Modèle mathématique10Mathematical model10Modelo matemático10Scénario11Script11Argumento11Simulation12Simulation12Simulación12Recommandation13Recommendation13Recomendación13AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG181PSIPSI 0163-7525AREHDTAnnu. rev. public health31Simulation Modeling of Health Care PolicyGLIED (Sherry)TILIPMAN (Nicholas)Department of Health Policy and Management, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia UniversityNew York, New York 10032USA1 aut.2 aut.439-4552010ENGINIST196723540001817592802700000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.127 ref.10-0256630PAAnnual review of public healthUSASimulation modeling of health reform is a standard part of policy development and, in the United States, a required element in enacting health reform legislation. Modelers use three types of basic structures to build models of the health system: microsimulation, individual choice, and cell-based. These frameworks are filled in with data on baseline characteristics of the system and parameters describing individual behavior. Available data on baseline characteristics are imprecise, and estimates of key empirical parameters vary widely. A comparison of estimated and realized consequences of several health reform proposals suggests that models provided reasonably accurate estimates, with confidence bounds of ˜30%.002B30A11Simulation02Simulation02Simulación02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Politique sanitaire05Health policy05Política sanitaria05Santé publique06Public health06Salud pública06Soin08Care08Cuidado08Assurance maladie09Health insurance09Seguro enfermedad09Protection sociale11Welfare aids11Protección social11Paiement12Payment12Pago12Economie santé17Health economy17Economía salud17Réforme18Reform18Reforma18Aspect politique19Political aspect19Aspecto político19172OTOOTO 9Les retraites du régime général : perspectives de court termeJOUBERT (P.)OLIVEAU (J.B.)Caisse Nationale d'Assurance Vieillesse. (C.N.A.V.). Paris.FRA1-32009-12FREBDSP/IRDES8800dissem.10-0241942PACADRAGEFRALe domaine de la retraite, fortement dépendant de la démographie, a connu d'importants changements ces dernières années. L'arrivée à l'âge de la retraite de générations nombreuses et les réformes successives ont modifié les évolutions des indicateurs liés à la retraite. Il apparaît nécessaire d'apporter des éclairages sur ces évolutions et sur leurs effets à court terme. Tous les ans, dans le cadre du projet de loi de financement de la Sécurité sociale, des prévisions à quatre ans sont réalisées afin de déterminer l'évolution du nombre de retraités et des dépenses du régime général. Elles sont élaborées à l'aide de Prisme, le modèle de microsimulation de la Cnav002B30A11HommeHumanHombreRetraiteRetirementJubilaciónDonnée statistiqueStatistical dataDato estadísticoSimulationSimulationSimulaciónFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG165 Prédire les dépenses de médicaments à l'horizon 2025 : vieillissement des populations, morbidité des cohortes et consommations des personnes31èmes Journées des économistes de la santé françaisBARNAY (T.)THIEBAUT (S.)VENTELOU (B.)Collège des Economistes de la Santé. Paris.FRAorg-cong.1-25tabl., ann.2009-12-03/2009-12-04FRECES31èmes Journées des économistes de la santé françaisFRA2009-12-03BDSP/IRDES880010-0241924CAFRACette étude propose une méthode de prédiction de l'évolution des dépenses de médicaments sous l'effet du vieillissement de la population française à l'horizon 2029. Le support choisi pour la première application de l'outil est la base de données ESPS 2004 de l'IRDES apparié avec l'Echantillon Permanent d'Assurés Sociaux (EPAS), seule base française permettant d'observer à la fois les caractéristiques individuelles des agents et leurs dépenses de santé remboursées. Le thème traité est l'impact de changements épidémiologiques (vieillissement, morbidité) sur le montant des dépenses de médicaments. Ces travaux s'appuient sur un modèle de &dquot;microsimulation&dquot; mis au point par l'Inserm SE4S dans le but de prédire les dépenses de santé des français à l'horizon 2029, dans différents scénarios de mortalité et de morbidité. Pour simuler la future trajectoire individuelle de santé est employée une matrice de taux de transition inter état permettant de faire vieillir artificiellement les agents. Le modèle intègre deux indicateurs d'états de santé par lesquels nous faisons transiter, par microsimulation, chaque agent de la base de données (créant ainsi une dynamique épidémiologique). Enfin, à l'aide d'une modélisation économétrique de la consommation individuelle des produits pharmaceutiques, cette étude déduit la dépense de médicaments en 2029 par agrégation de la population représentative vieillie jusqu'à cette date002B30A11ConsommationConsumptionConsumoMédicamentDrugMedicamentoMorbiditéMorbidityMorbilidadPopulationPopulationPoblaciónSénescenceSenescenceSenescenciaAgeAgeEdadMortalitéMortalityMortalidadInnovationInnovationInnovaciónMédecineMedicineMedicinaProspectiveProspectiveProspectivaDonnée statistiqueStatistical dataDato estadísticoEnquêteSurveyEncuestaSantéHealthSaludPays industrialiséIndustrialized countryPaís industrializado165 Réformer le système de remboursement pour les soins de ville : une analyse par microsimulation31èmes Journées des économistes de la santé françaisGEOFFARD (P.Y.)LAGASNERIE (G.)Collège des Economistes de la Santé. Paris.FRAorg-cong.1-5615 tabl.2009-12-03/2009-12-04FRECES31èmes Journées des économistes de la santé françaisFRA2009-12-03BDSP/IRDES880010-0241922CAFRALes évolutions du système de remboursement des dépenses de soins par l'assurance publique ont fortement diminue la couverture publique du risque maladie. Ce système laisse à la charge des assurés des sommes qui peuvent s'avérer importantes lorsque ceux-ci traversent des épisodes de maladie longs et coûteux. Pour permettre la protection contre ces restes à charge élevés, le système des ALD (Affection de Longue Durée) a été instauré. Il offre une prise en charge totale des soins liées à l'affection. Malgré un tel dispositif, certains assurés (et même ceux en ALD) restent insuffisamment couverts lorsqu'ils doivent faire face à des dépenses élevées. Afin de garantir une meilleure couverture de ces assurés, il existe deux solutions. Tout d'abord, permettre à chacun de bénéficier d'une assurance complémentaire. Cette assurance couvre tout ou partie des soins non pris en charge par l'assurance publique. 7% de la population ne jouit pas d'une telle assurance. Et l'échec des différents dispositifs (Aide Complémentaire Santé) visant à diffuser plus largement ce complément d'assurance montre les limites de cette première solution. Cette étude privilégie donc une autre approche dans la lignée du bouclier sanitaire [Briet et Fragonnard, 2007]. Les caractéristiques du bouclier sont simples : au-delà d'un plafond, les dépenses de soins dans le périmètre de l'Assurance Maladie Obligatoire seraient prises en charge à100% par l'assurance maladie publique. Pour le financer, à la différence de Briet et Fragonnard qui préconisent la suppression d'exonérations dont le système ALD, sera instaurée une franchise médicale individuelle annuelle (non remboursable par une assurance complémentaire) sur les dépenses de soins002B30A11Longue duréeLong lastingLarga duraciónMaladieDiseaseEnfermedadDépenseExpenditureGastoSantéHealthSaludContrôleCheckControlRégulationRegulation(control)RegulaciónRevenu individuelPersonal incomeRenta personalFinancementFinancingFinanciaciónSoinCareCuidadoSimulationSimulationSimulaciónMicroéconomieMicroeconomyMicroeconomíaMéthodologieMethodologyMetodologíaFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG165 Prédire les dépenses de médicaments à l'horizon 2029 : vieillissement des populations, morbidité des cohortes et choix de recours des personnes31ème Journées d'Economistes de la Santé FrançaisBARNAY (T.)VENTELOU (B.)THIEBAUT (S.)1-252009-12-03/2009-12-04FRE31ème Journées d'Economistes de la Santé FrançaisFRA2009-12-03BDSP/ORSPACA2618880010-0241718CAFRANous proposons une méthode de prédiction de l'évolution des dépenses de médicaments sous l'effet du vieillissement de la population française à l'horizon 2029. Le support choisi pour la première application de l'outil est la base de données ESPS 2004 de l'IRDES apparié avec l'Echantillon Permanent d'Assurés Sociaux (EPAS), seule base française permettant d'observer à la fois les caractéristiques individuelles des agents et leurs dépenses de santé remboursées. Le thème traité est l'impact de changements épidémiologiques (vieillissement, morbidité) sur le montant des dépenses de médicaments. Ces travaux s'appuient sur un modèle de &dquot;microsimulation&dquot; mis au point par l'Inserm SE4S dans le but de prédire les dépenses de santé des français à l'horizon 2029, dans différents scénarios de mortalité et de morbidité. Pour simuler la future trajectoire individuelle de santé, nous employons une matrice de taux de transition inter état permettant de faire vieillir artificiellement les agents. Le modèle intègre deux indicateurs d'états de santé par lesquels nous faisons transiter, par microsimulation, chaque agent de la base de données (créant ainsi une dynamique épidémiologique). Enfin, à l'aide d'une modélisation économétrique de la consommation individuelle des produits pharmaceutiques, nous déduisons la dépense de médicaments en 2029 par agrégation de la population représentative vieillie jusqu'à cette date002B30A11DépenseExpenditureGastoSantéHealthSaludEconomie santéHealth economyEconomía saludMédicamentDrugMedicamentoPolitique sanitaireHealth policyPolítica sanitariaPolitiquePolicyPolíticaSoinCareCuidadoProjection perspectivePerspective projectionProyección perspectiva165 Elderly Disability and Changes in Family Support : Microsimulation for France in 20302nd Conference of the International Microsimulation AssociationTHIEBAUT (S.)DAVIN (B.)ARRIGHI (Y.)PARAPONARIS (A.)VENTELOU (B.)1-132009-06-08/2009-06-10ENG2nd Conference of the International Microsimulation AssociationFRA2009-06-08BDSP/ORSPACA2506880010-0241685CAFRABackground : Simulations of scenarios for old-age disability have already been computed, giving plausible Long-Term-Care needs (LTC needs), but with no attention paid for different scenarios for family structure (marital status, number of children) and intra-family decisions about formal versus informal care for elderly parent. Objective : To enrich a Markovian dynamic microsimulation model giving disability prevalence for 2030 with a Beckerian-like family decision process ; to integrate a formal care (versus informal care) microeconomic decision in the macroeconomic estimates for health expenditures. Methods : We developed a microsimulation model using Markovian dynamics on health status, with different epidemiological scenarios for disability (benchmark case and healthy aging). In that model, LTC needs and demand for formal LTC were computed, for each epidemiological scenario, under the assumption of a fixed rate of transformation of needs into demand for formal care. Nevertheless, in order to get a complete behavioural assessment of the issue, there is a strong requirement for a microeconomic modelling of family decision about formal long-term care - versus informal. The endogenous variable of the micro-founded model is the decision by the family members to use formal LTC - rather than giving care themselves. Exogenous variables are : rate of divorce amongst elderly ; number of children and other children's characteristics (job market conditions, amount of bequest) which all define relatives'propensity to spend time with their parents. Results : There are two sources of variation for the future amount of health expenditures : alternative epidemiological assumptions (healthy aging) explain a first gap in estimates ; a tentative and preliminary work to include variation in family support gave a comparable gap in the estimates of formal LTC consumed by elderly people (for a given state of disability, demand by a divorced man, with only one child, working himself, will be greater than demand by a married elderly with several children with a lot of free-time). Conclusion : According to our results, changes in family support could reverse all gains due to better health status of the future generations of aged people. Information and calibration about this large uncertainty regarding family support has to be put on the policymaker agenda ; microsimulation tools should help for that purpose002B30A11FranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGHandicapHandicapDiscapacidadPersonne âgéeElderlyAncianoProjection perspectivePerspective projectionProyección perspectivaSociétéSocietySociedadSoinCareCuidadoEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGHommeHumanHombre165 0012-9682ECMTA7Econometrica782BOOTSTRAP INFERENCE IN PARTIALLY IDENTIFIED MODELS DEFINED BY MOMENT INEQUALITIES: COVERAGE OF THE IDENTIFIED SETBUGNI (Federico A.)Dept. of Economics, Duke University, 213 Social Sciences Building, Box 90097Durham, NC 27708USA1 aut.735-7532010ENGINIST20693540001820490001000000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.10-0224625PAEconometricaGBRThis paper introduces a novel bootstrap procedure to perform inference in a wide class of partially identified econometric models. We consider econometric models defined by finitely many weak moment inequalities,² which encompass many applications of economic interest. The objective of our inferential procedure is to cover the identified set with a prespecified probability.³ We compare our bootstrap procedure, a competing asymptotic approximation, and subsampling procedures in terms of the rate at which they achieve the desired coverage level, also known as the error in the coverage probability. Under certain conditions, we show that our bootstrap procedure and the asymptotic approximation have the same order of error in the coverage probability, which is smaller than that obtained by using subsampling. This implies that inference based on our bootstrap and asymptotic approximation should eventually be more precise than inference based on subsampling. A Monte Carlo study confirms this finding in a small sample simulation.001A02H02N2001A02H02G001A02H02F001A02I01QMéthode rééchantillonnage01Resampling method01Méthode jackknife02Jackknife method02Método jackknife02Distribution statistique03Statistical distribution03Distribución estadística03Théorie approximation04Approximation theory04Analyse numérique05Numerical analysis05Análisis numérico05Méthode stochastique06Stochastic method06Método estocástico06Accélération convergence07Convergence acceleration07Aceleración convergencia07Bootstrap17Bootstrap17Bootstrap17Estimation statistique18Statistical estimation18Estimación estadística18Moment statistique19Statistical moment19Momento estadístico19Modèle économétrique20Econometric model20Modelo econométrico20Sciences économiques21Economic sciences21Ciencias económicas21Approximation asymptotique22Asymptotic approximation22Aproximación asintótica22Probabilité erreur23Error probability23Probabilidad error23Ordre approximation24Approximation order24Orden aproximación24Méthode Monte Carlo25Monte Carlo method25Método Monte Carlo25Petit échantillon26Small sample26Pequeña muestra26Simulation27Simulation27Simulación27Echantillonnage28Sampling28Muestreo28Taux convergence29Convergence rate29Relación convergencia29Méthode statistique30Statistical method30Método estadístico30Econométrie31Econometrics31Econometría3162F40INC7062E17INC7162P20INC7265C05INC7365B99INC74Estimation paramétriqueINC75Probabilité couvertureCD96Coverage probabilityCD96151OTOOTO 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy3712Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after KyotoABADIE (Luis M.)CHAMORRO (José M.)Bilbao Bizkaia Kutxa, Gran Via, 3048009 BilbaoESP1 aut.University of the Basque Country, Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I, Av. Lehendakari Aguirre, 8348015 BilbaoESP2 aut.5304-53162009ENGINIST164173540001714811602900000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.10-0201272PAEnergy policyGBRCoal-fired power plants enjoy a significant advantage relative to gas plants in terms of cheaper fuel cost. This advantage may erode (or turn into disadvantage) depending on CO₂ emission allowance price. Financial risks are further reinforced when the price of electricity is determined by natural gas-fired plants' marginal costs. We aim to empirically assess the risks in EU coal plants' margins up to the year 2020. Parameter values are derived from actual market data. Monte Carlo simulation allows compute the expected value and risk profile of coal plants' earnings. Future allowance prices may spell significant risks on utilities' balance sheets.001D06A01B001D06A01C2A001D06A01C4230Politique énergétique01Energy policy01Política energética01Politique environnement02Environmental policy02Política medio ambiente02Prévention pollution03Pollution prevention03Prevención polución03Lutte antipollution04Pollution control04Lucha anticontaminación04Permis émission05Emission permit05Permiso de emisión05Emission polluant06Pollutant emission06Emisión contaminante06Dioxyde de carboneNKFX07Carbon dioxideNKFX07Carbono dióxidoNKFX07Impact économique08Economic impact08Impacto económico08Production énergie électrique09Electric power production09Producción energía eléctrica09CharbonFX10CoalFX10CarbónFX10Prix11Price11Precio11Centrale charbon12Coal power plant12Central carbón12Rentabilité13Profitability13Rentabilidad13Bénéfice14Profit14Beneficio14Prévision15Forecasting15Previsión15Long terme16Long term16Largo plazo16Union européenne17European Union17Unión Europea17Modèle économétrique18Econometric model18Modelo econométrico18Processus stochastique19Stochastic process19Proceso estocástico19130 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2134Comprehensive Model of Worker Nonwork-Activity Time Use and Timing BehaviorTravel Behavior 2009. VOLUME 1RAJAGOPALAN (Bharath S.)RAWOOF PINJARI (Abdul)BHAT (Chandra R.)Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1761Austin, TX 78712-0278USA1 aut.3 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, 4202 East Fowler Avenue, ENC 2503Tampa, FL 33620USA2 aut.51-622009ENGINIST10459B3540001809876500700000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.44 ref.10-0182916PATransportation research recordUSAA comprehensive, high-resolution model for out-of-home nonwork-activity generation is developed; it considers daily activity time-use behavior and activity timing preferences in a unified random utility framework. The empirical analysis is undertaken with data from the 2000 San Francisco, California, Bay Area Travel Survey. Several important household and commuter demographics, commute characteristics, and activity travel environment attributes are found to be significant determinants of workers' nonwork-activity time use and timing behavior. The developed comprehensive model can serve as an activity-generation module in an activity-based travel demand microsimulation framework.001D15ATransports01Transportation01Transportes01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Analyse comportementale03Behavioral analysis03Análisis conductual03Timing04Timing04Timing04Activité05Activity05Actividad05Travail06Work06Trabajo06Méthode empirique07Empirical method07Método empírico07123PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2140Pedestrian Crosswalks at Midblock Locations: Fuzzy Logic Solution to Existing Signal OperationsPedestrians, Bicycles, and MotorcyclesLU (George)NOYCE (David A.)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin, Madison, 1415 Engineering DriveMadison, WI 53706-1691USA1 aut.2 aut.63-782009ENGINIST10459B3540001814120100700000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.28 ref.10-0181207PATransportation research recordUSAThe increasing number of midblock vehicle-pedestrian crashes has led traffic engineers to consider safer treatments for pedestrian crossings while preserving flow efficiency. One of the existing solutions is to install signalized crosswalks. Using a microsimulation approach, this study first assesses three signal systems for a typical midblock crosswalk (MBC) with varied geometries, with the aim to explore how different signalization schemes and crosswalk geometries affect measures of effectiveness from all user perspectives. The results indicate that two-phase timing outperforms one-phase timing and the innovative high-intensity activated crosswalk significantly improves vehicle operations over actuation by pedestrians and pedestrian light control. Of existing signals, the pedestrian user-friendly interface (PUFFIN) is more functional because of its dynamic pedestrian clearance interval, but it still does not account for enough safety and human factors in its control logic and thus lacks an adaptive ability in fulfllling competing objectives. Fuzzy logic control (FLC) has proved effective for a complex optimization problem with multiple goals, uncertain information, and vague decision criteria. Traffic signal timing lies in this realm. To model the range of variables affecting MBCs, a user-friendly FLC counterpart is developed and then evaluated against PUFFIN to quantify potential safety and efficiency benefits. The results show that with straightforward logic and tractable parameters, FLC manages the MBC signal timing effectively and outperforms PUFFIN in terms of a compromise among enhanced safety, ameliorated operations, and lessened social cost from crashes and delays.001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Passage piéton02Pedestrian walk02Pasaje peatones02Accident circulation03Traffic accident03Accidente tráfico03Etude méthode04Method study04Estudio método04Logique floue05Fuzzy logic05Lógica difusa05Sécurité trafic06Traffic safety06Seguridad tráfico06Signalisation07Signalling07Señalización07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Expérimentation09Experimentation09Experimentación09123PSIPSI 1524-9050IEEE Trans. intell. transp. syst.111Traffic Signal Optimization in &dquot;La Almozara&dquot; District in Saragossa Under Congestion Conditions, Using Genetic Algorithms, Traffic Microsimulation, and Cluster ComputingSANCHEZ-MEDINA (Javier J.)GALAN-MORENO (Manuel J.)RUBIO-ROYO (Enrique)Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria35017 Las PalmasESP1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.132-1412010ENGINIST270613540001893536201300000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.30 ref.10-0178244PAIEEE Transactions on intelligent transportation systemsUSAUrban traffic congestion is a pandemic illness affecting many cities around the world. We have developed and tested a new model for traffic signal optimization based on the combination of three key techniques: 1) genetic algorithms (GAs) for the optimization task; 2) cellular-automata-based microsimulators for evaluating every possible solution for traffic-light programming times; and 3) a Beowulf Cluster, which is a multiple-instruction-multiple-data (MIMD) multicomputer of excellent price/performance ratio. This paper presents the results of applying this architecture to a large-scale real-world test case in a congestion situation, using four different variables as fitness function of the GA. We have simulated a set of congested scenarios for &dquot;La Almozara&dquot; in Saragossa, Spain. Our results in this extreme case are encouraging: As we increase the incoming volume of vehicles entering the traffic network-from 36 up to 3600 vehicles per hour-we get better performance from our architecture. Finally, we present new research directions in this area.001D02B04001D15C001D02CCalcul réparti06Distributed computing06Cálculo repartido06Système réparti07Distributed system07Sistema repartido07Automate cellulaire08Cellular automaton08Autómata celular08Intelligence artificielle09Artificial intelligence09Inteligencia artificial09Système intelligent10Intelligent system10Sistema inteligente10Signalisation routière18Road signalling18Señalización tráfico18Trafic routier19Road traffic19Tráfico carretera19Grappe calculateur20Calculator cluster20Racimo calculadora20Trafic urbain21Urban traffic21Tráfico urbano21Congestion trafic22Traffic congestion22Congestión tráfico22Optimisation23Optimization23Optimización23Algorithme génétique24Genetic algorithm24Algoritmo genético24Gestion trafic25Traffic management25Gestión tráfico25Feu signalisation26Traffic lights26Semáforo26Calculateur MIMD27MIMD computer27Modélisation28Modeling28Modelización28Système transport41Transportation system41Sistema de transporte41116OTOOTO 0033-3549PHRPA6Public health rep. : (1974)1246Assessing and Forecasting Population Health: Integrating Knowledge and Beliefs in a Comprehensive FrameworkVAN MEIJGAARD (Jeroen)FIELDING (Jonathan E.)KOMINSKI (Gerald F.)University of California Los Angeles School of Public Health, Department of Health ServicesLos Angeles, CAUSA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.778-7892009ENGINIST30733540001702870600300000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.48 ref.10-0175174PAPublic health reports : (1974)USAA comprehensive population health-forecasting model has the potential to interject new and valuable information about the future health status of the population based on current conditions, socioeconomic and demographic trends, and potential changes in policies and programs. Our Health Forecasting Model uses a continuous-time microsimulation framework to simulate individuals' lifetime histories by using birth, risk exposures, disease incidence, and death rates to mark changes in the state of the individual. The model generates a reference forecast of future health in California, including details on physical activity, obesity, coronary heart disease, all-cause mortality, and medical expenditures. We use the model to answer specific research questions, inform debate on important policy issues in public health, support community advocacy, and provide analysis on the long-term impact of proposed changes in policies and programs, thus informing stakeholders at all levels and supporting decisions that can improve the health of populations.002B30A11Evaluation02Evaluation02Evaluación02Prévision03Forecasting03Previsión03Population05Population05Población05Santé publique06Public health06Salud pública06Connaissance08Knowledge08Conocimiento08Croyance09Belief09Creencia09116OTOOTO 1346-3969Acoust. sci. technol.311Methods for predicting noise in the vicinity of signalized intersectionsSpecial issue on road traffic noise prediction methodsNAMIKAWA (Yoshiharu)YOSHINAGA (Hiroshi)TAJIKA (Terutoshi)OSHINO (Yasuo)YOSHIHISA (Koichi)YAMAMOTO (Kohei)YAMAMOTO (Kohei)limin.National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism1 Asahi, Tsukuba, 305-0804JPN1 aut.2 aut.Environmental Technical Laboratory, Ltd., 11-17, Kohoku 2-chomeAdachi-ku, Tokyo, 123-0872JPN3 aut.Japan Automobile Research Institute2530, Karima, Tsukuba, 305-0822JPN4 aut.Meijo University, 1-502, ShiogamaguchiTempaku-ku, Nagoya, 468-8502JPN5 aut.Kobayasi Institute of Physical Research3-20-41 Higashi-Motomachi, Kokubunji, 185-0022JPN6 aut.Acoustical Society of JapanJPN1 aut.87-942010ENGINIST189373540001818258500500000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3 ref.10-0167797PAAcoustical science and technologyJPNTo accurately estimate the noise at a signalized intersection, it is necessary to precisely reproduce the traffic volume, signal cycle and traffic noise for each vehicle behavior and driving state. Precise reproduction requires considerable effort, such as continuous calculations of vehicles and the setting of parameters such as engine speed, engine load and velocity. A simple method that involves using A-weighted sound power levels (L_WA) under nonsteady running conditions has already been proposed for estimating noise at signalized intersections in a previous paper. In this study, the authors developed two simple methods for predicting noise in which the effects of acceleration and deceleration by signals is reflected. One method is based on a microsimulation traffic model, in which equivalent continuous A-weighted sound pressure levels (L_Aeq) is calculated by adding the noise of vehicles passing a green signal and the noise of vehicles decelerating and stopping at a red signal then accelerating when the signal turns green. The other method is even simpler and involves the assumption that an intersection zone is an unsteady running section and that L_WA for a nonsteady running section is larger than that for a steady running section. Noise predicting by the three simple methods is compared with actual measurements at 10 sites. The two new methods had slightly improved accuracy relative to the measured results.001B40C50Bruit trafic06Traffic noise06Ruido tráfico06Niveau pression acoustique équivalent07Equivalent sound pressure level07Nivel presión acústica equivalente07Psychoacoustique08Psychoacoustics08Psicoacústico08Niveau pression acoustique09Sound pressure level09Nivel presión acústica09Signalisation routière15Road signalling15Señalización tráfico15Trafic routier16Road traffic16Tráfico carretera16Modélisation23Modeling23Modelización23Fonction Green24Green function24Función Green24.INC82109OTOOTO 8756-3282Bone : (NY NY)462Cost-effectiveness of strontium ranelate versus risedronate in the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporotic women aged over 75 yearsHILIGSMANN (Mickaël)BRUYERE (Olivier)REGINSTER (Jean-Yves)HEC-ULg Management School, University of Liège, Boulevard du Rectorat 7, Bât B314000 LiègeBEL1 aut.Department of Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics, University of LiègeLiègeBEL1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.440-4462010ENGINIST190413540001901110602600000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.53 ref.10-0152540PABone : (New York, NY)USAObjective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of strontium ranelate in the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporotic women aged over 75 years. Materials and methods: A validated Markov microsimulation model with a Belgian payer's perspective estimated the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of a 3-year strontium ranelate treatment compared with no treatment and with the bisphosphonate risedronate. Data on the effect of both treatments on fracture risk were taken from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Analyses were performed for postmenopausal women aged 75 and 80 years, either with a diagnosis of osteoporosis (i.e. bone mineral density T-score ≤-2.5 SD) or with prevalent vertebral fractures (PVF). Parameter uncertainty was evaluated using both one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Results: Strontium ranelate was dominant (i.e. more effective and less costly) versus risedronate for women with osteoporosis aged over 75 years and for women with PVF aged 80 years. The cost per QALY gained of strontium ranelate compared with risedronate at 75 years of age was <euro sign>11,435 for women with PVF. When compared with no treatment, the costs per QALY gained of strontium ranelate were <euro sign>15,588 and <euro sign>7,708 at 75 and 80 years of age for women with osteoporosis; the equivalent values were <euro sign>16,518 and <euro sign>6,015 for women with PVF. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that strontium ranelate was generally more cost-effective than risedronate, in the range of 60% in all cases. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that strontium ranelate is a cost-effective strategy, in a Belgian setting, for the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporotic women aged over 75 years.002A16002B15A002B02LOstéoporose01Osteoporosis01Osteoporosis01Ranélate de strontiumFR04Strontium ranelateFR04Ranelat d'estronciFR04Acide risédroniqueNKFR05Risedronic acidNKFR05Acido risedrónicoNKFR05Coût07Costs07Coste07Etude comparative08Comparative study08Estudio comparativo08Traitement09Treatment09Tratamiento09Postménopause13Postmenopause13Postmenopausia13Femme14Woman14Mujer14Morphologie16Morphology16Morfología16Antiostéoporotique30Antiosteoporotic30Antiosteoporótico30Antiostéoclastique31Antiosteoclastic agent31Antiosteoclástica31HommeHumanHombreEconomie santé37Health economy37Economía salud37Pathologie du système ostéoarticulaire38Diseases of the osteoarticular system38Sistema osteoarticular patología38Santé publique39Public health39Salud pública39095OTOOTO 0272-6386Am. j. kidney dis.553A Health Policy Model of CKD: 2. The Cost-Effectiveness of Microalbuminuria ScreeningHOERGER (Thomas J.)WITTENBORN (John S.)SEGEL (Joel E.)BURROWS (Nilka R.)IMAI (Kumiko)EGGERS (Paul)PAVKOV (Meda E.)JORDAN (Regina)HAILPERN (Susan M.)SCHOOLWERTH (Anton C.)WILLIAMS (Desmond E.)RTI InternationalResearch Triangle Park, NCUSA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.Centers for Disease Control and PreventionAtlanta, GAUSA4 aut.7 aut.8 aut.9 aut.11 aut.UNICEF SwazilandMbabaneSWZ5 aut.National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney DiseasesBethesda, MDUSA6 aut.Dartmouth Hitchcock Medical CenterLebanon, NHUSA10 aut.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CKD InitiativeUSA463-4732010ENGINIST190983540001816087001000000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.41 ref.10-0145838PAAmerican journal of kidney diseasesUSABackground: Microalbuminuria screening may detect chronic kidney disease in its early stages, allowing for treatment that delays or prevents disease progression. The cost-effectiveness of microalbuminuria screening has not been determined. Study Design: A cost-effectiveness model simulating disease progression and costs. Setting & Population: US patients. Model, Perspective, and Timeframe: The microsimulation model follows up disease progression and costs in a cohort of simulated patients from age 50 to 90 years or death. Costs are evaluated from the health care system perspective. Intervention: Microalbuminuria screening at 1-, 2-, 5-, or 10-year intervals followed by treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers. We considered universal screening, as well as screening targeted at persons with diabetes, persons with hypertension but no diabetes, and persons with neither diabetes nor hypertension. Outcomes: Costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Results: For the full model population, universal screening increases costs and increases QALYs. Universal annual screening starting at age 50 years has a cost-effectiveness ratio of $73,000/QALY relative to no screening and $145,000/QALY relative to usual care. Cost-effectiveness ratios improved with longer screening intervals. Relative to no screening, targeted annual screening has cost-effectiveness ratios of $21,000/QALY, $55,000/QALY, and $155,000/QALY for persons with diabetes, those with hypertension, and those with neither current diabetes nor current hypertension, respectively. Limitations: Results necessarily are based on a microsimulation model because of the long time horizon appropriate for chronic kidney disease. The model includes only health care costs. Conclusions: Microalbuminuria screening is cost-effective for patients with diabetes or hypertension, but is not cost-effective for patients with neither diabetes nor hypertension unless screening is conducted at longer intervals or as part of existing physician visits.002B14E01002B14A05Néphropathie chroniqueNM01Chronic kidney diseaseNM01Nefropatía crónicaNM01Politique sanitaire02Health policy02Política sanitaria02Modèle03Models03Modelo03Insuffisance rénale04Renal failure04Insuficiencia renal04Analyse coût efficacité05Cost efficiency analysis05Análisis costo eficacia05Economie santé06Health economy06Economía salud06Microalbuminurie08Microalbuminuria08Microalbuminuria08Dépistage09Medical screening09Descubrimiento09Rein11Kidney11Riñón11Stade terminal12Terminal stage12Estadio terminal12Néphrologie17Nephrology17Nefrología17Urologie18Urology18Urología18Albumine25Albumin25Albúmina25Insuffisance rénale chroniqueCD96Chronic renal failureCD96Insuficiencia renal crónicaCD96Pathologie de l'appareil urinaire37Urinary system disease37Aparato urinario patología37Pathologie du rein38Kidney disease38Riñón patología38Protéinurie39Proteinuria39Proteinuria39Appareil urinaire40Urinary system40Aparato urinario40095OTOOTO 0272-6386Am. j. kidney dis.553A Health Policy Model of CKD: 1. Model Construction, Assumptions, and Validation of Health ConsequencesHOERGER (Thomas J.)WITTENBORN (John S.)SEGEL (Joel E.)BURROWS (Nilka R.)IMAI (Kumiko)EGGERS (Paul)PAVKOV (Meda E.)JORDAN (Regina)HAILPERN (Susan M.)SCHOOLWERTH (Anton C.)WILLIAM (Desmond E.)RTI InternationalResearch Triangle ParkNCL1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.Centers for Disease Control and PreventionAtlanta, GA;USA4 aut.7 aut.8 aut.9 aut.11 aut.UNICEF SwazilandMbabaneSWZ5 aut.National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney DiseasesBethesda, MDUSA6 aut.Dartmouth Hitchcock Medical CenterLebanon, NHUSA10 aut.Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CKD InitiativeUSA452-4622010ENGINIST190983540001816087000900000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.39 ref.10-0145832PAAmerican journal of kidney diseasesUSABackground: A cost-effectiveness model that accurately represents disease progression, outcomes, and associated costs is necessary to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of interventions for chronic kidney disease (CKD). Study Design: We developed a microsimulation model of the incidence, progression, and treatment of CKD. The model was validated by comparing its predictions with survey and epidemiologic data sources. Setting & Population: US patients. Model, Perspective, & Timeframe: The model follows up disease progression in a cohort of simulated patients aged 30 until age 90 years or death. The model consists of 7 mutually exclusive states representing no CKD, 5 stages of CKD, and death. Progression through the stages is governed by a person's glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria status. Diabetes, hypertension, and other risk factors influence CKD and the development of CKD complications in the model. Costs are evaluated from the health care system perspective. Intervention: Usual care, including incidental screening for persons with diabetes or hypertension. Outcomes: Progression to CKD stages, complications, and mortality. Results: The model provides reasonably accurate estimates of CKD prevalence by stage. The model predicts that 47.1 % of 30-year-olds will develop CKD during their lifetime, with 1.7%, 6.9%, 27.3%, 6.9%, and 4.4% ending at stages 1-5, respectively. Approximately 11% of persons who reach stage 3 will eventually progress to stage 5. The model also predicts that 3.7% of persons will develop end-stage renal disease compared with an estimate of 3.0% based on current end-stage renal disease lifetime incidence. Limitations: The model synthesizes data from multiple sources rather than a single source and relies on explicit assumptions about progression. The model does not include acute kidney failure. Conclusion: The model is well validated and can be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of CKD interventions. The model also can be updated as better data for CKD progression become available.002B14E01002B14A05Néphropathie chroniqueNM01Chronic kidney diseaseNM01Nefropatía crónicaNM01Politique sanitaire02Health policy02Política sanitaria02Modèle03Models03Modelo03Validation05Validation05Validación05Santé06Health06Salud06Analyse coût efficacité08Cost efficiency analysis08Análisis costo eficacia08Economie santé09Health economy09Economía salud09Néphrologie11Nephrology11Nefrología11Urologie12Urology12Urología12Insuffisance rénale37Renal failure37Insuficiencia renal37Pathologie de l'appareil urinaire38Urinary system disease38Aparato urinario patología38Pathologie du rein39Kidney disease39Riñón patología39095OTOOTO 0012-9682ECMTA7Econometrica781INFERENCE FOR THE IDENTIFIED SET IN PARTIALLY IDENTIFIED ECONOMETRIC MODELSROMANO (Joseph P.)SHAIKH (Azeem M.)Depts. of Economics and Statistics, Sequoia Hall, Stanford UniversityStanford, CA 94305-4065USA1 aut.Dept. of Economics, University of Chicago, 1126 East 59th StreetChicago, IL 60637USA2 aut.169-2112010ENGINIST20693540001814460100600000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.10-0137890PAEconometricaGBRThis paper provides computationally intensive, yet feasible methods for inference in a very general class of partially identified econometric models. Let P denote the distribution of the observed data. The class of models we consider is defined by a population objective function Q(&thgr;, P) for &thgr; ∈ &THgr;. The point of departure from the classical extremum estimation framework is that it is not assumed that Q(&thgr;, P) has a unique minimizer in the parameter space &THgr;. The goal may be either to draw inferences about some unknown point in the set of minimizers of the population objective function or to draw inferences about the set of minimizers itself. In this paper, the object of interest is &THgr;₀(P) = arg min_&thgr;∈_&THgr; Q(&thgr;, P), and so we seek random sets that contain this set with at least some prespecified probability asymptotically. We also consider situations where the object of interest is the image of &THgr;₀(P) under a known function. Random sets that satisfy the desired coverage property are constructed under weak assumptions. Conditions are provided under which the confidence regions are asymptotically valid not only pointwise in P, but also uniformly in P. We illustrate the use of our methods with an empirical study of the impact of top-coding outcomes on inferences about the parameters of a linear regression. Finally, a modest simulation study sheds some light on the finite-sample behavior of our procedure.001A02H02N2001A02H01F001A02H02G001A02H02HIntervalle confiance01Confidence interval01Intervalo confianza01Estimation non paramétrique02Non parametric estimation02Estimación no paramétrica02Régression statistique03Statistical regression03Regresión estadística03Distribution statistique04Statistical distribution04Distribución estadística04Théorie approximation05Approximation theory05Estimation statistique17Statistical estimation17Estimación estadística17Modèle économétrique18Econometric model18Modelo econométrico18Fonction répartition19Distribution function19Función distribución19Donnée observation20Observation data20Dato observación20Fonction objectif21Objective function21Función objetivo21Espace paramètre22Parameter space22Espacio par metro22Ensemble aléatoire23Random set23Conjunto aleatorio23Probabilité24Probability24Probabilidad24Loi probabilité25Probability distribution25Ley probabilidad25Etude méthode26Method study26Estudio método26Méthode empirique27Empirical method27Método empírico27Codage28Coding28Codificación28Régression linéaire29Linear regression29Regresión lineal29Simulation statistique30Statistical simulation30Simulación estadística30Moment statistique31Statistical moment31Momento estadístico31Méthode statistique32Statistical method32Método estadístico32Econométrie33Econometrics33Econometría3360E05INC7062F25INC7162G15INC7262J05INC7362E17INC74Estimation paramétriqueINC75Région confianceCD96Confidence regionCD96Echantillon finiCD97Finite sampleCD97088OTOOTO 0140-9883EECODREnergy econ.316Generators' bidding behavior in the NYISO day-ahead wholesale electricity marketEnergy Sector Pricing and Macroeconomic DynamicsNING ZHANGKYRTSOU (Catherine)ed.MALLIARIS (Anastasios G.)ed.Applied Economics and Management Department, Cornell UniversityIthaca NY 14853USA1 aut.University of MacedoniaGRC1 aut.Loyola University ChicagoUSA2 aut.897-9132009ENGINIST182313540001703594100800000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.10-0135508PAEnergy economicsGBRThis paper proposes a statistical and econometric model to analyze the generators' bidding behavior in the NYISO day-ahead wholesale electricity market. The generator level bidding data show very strong persistence in generators' grouping choices over time. Using dynamic random effect ordered probit model, we find that persistence is characterized by positive state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity and state dependence is more important than unobserved heterogeneity. The finding of true state dependence suggests a scope for economic policy intervention. If NYISO can implement an effective policy to switch generators from higher price groups to lower price groups, the effect is likely to be lasting. As a result, the market price can be lowered in the long-run. Generators' offered capacity is estimated by a two-stage sample selection model. The estimated results show that generators in higher-priced groups tend to withhold their capacity strategically to push up market prices. It further confirms the importance of an effective policy to turn generators into lower price groups in order to mitigate unexpected price spikes. The simulated market prices based on our estimated aggregate supply curve can replicate most volatility of actual DA market prices. Applying our models to different demand assumptions, we find that demand conditions can affect market prices significantly. It validates the importance of introducing demand side management during the restructure of electricity industry.001D06A01C4001D06A01A230Electricité01Electricity01Electricidad01Marché en gros02Wholesale market02Mercado al por mayor02Enchère03Bidding03Subasta03Analyse comportementale04Behavioral analysis04Análisis conductual04Producteur05Producer05Productor05Modèle économétrique06Econometric model06Modelo econométrico06Modèle statistique07Statistical model07Modelo estadístico07Modèle probit08Probit model08Modelo probit08Modèle simulation09Simulation model09Modelo simulación09Prix10Price10Precio10Etude cas11Case study11Estudio caso11New YorkNG12New YorkNG12Nueva YorkNG12Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG088 0149-5992DICAD2Diabetes care332Cost-Effectiveness of the Diabetes Care Protocol, a Multifaceted Computerized Decision Support Diabetes Management Intervention That Reduces Cardiovascular RiskCLEVERINGA (Frits G. W.)WELSING (Paco M. J.)VAN DEN DONK (Maureen)GORTER (Kees J.)NIESSEN (Louis W.)RUTTEN (Guy E. H. M.)REDEKOP (William K.)Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical CenterUtrechtNLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.6 aut.Department of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus UniversityRotterdamNLD5 aut.7 aut.Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public HealthBaltimore, MarylandUSA5 aut.School of Medicine, Policy and Practice, University of East AngliaNorwichGBR5 aut.258-2632010ENGINIST180543540001893174200800000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.25 ref.10-0128121PADiabetes careUSAOBJECTIVE - The Diabetes Care Protocol (DCP), a multifaceted computerized decision support diabetes management intervention, reduces cardiovascular risk of type 2 diabetic patients. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of DCP from a Dutch health care perspective. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - A cluster randomized trial provided data of DCP versus usual care. The 1-year follow-up patient data were extrapolated using a modified Dutch microsimulation diabetes model, computing individual lifetime health-related costs, and health effects. Incremental costs and effectiveness (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) were estimated using multivariate generalized estimating equations to correct for practice-level clustering and confounding. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were created. Stroke costs were calculated separately. Subgroup analyses examined patients with and without cardiovascular disease (CVD+ or CVD-patients, respectively). RESULTS- Excluding stroke, DCP patients lived longer (0.14 life-years, P = NS), experienced more QALYs (0.037, P = NS), and incurred higher total costs (<euro sign>1,415, P = NS), resulting in an ICER of <euro sign>38,243 per QALY gained. The likelihood of cost-effectiveness given a willingness-to-pay threshold of <euro sign>20,000 per QALY gained is 30%. DCP had a more favorable effect on CVD+ patients (ICER = <euro sign>14,814) than for CVD- patients (ICER = <euro sign>121,285). Coronary heart disease costs were reduced (<euro sign>-587, P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS - DCP reduces cardiovascular risk, resulting in only a slight improvement in QALYs, lower CVD costs, but higher total costs, with a high cost-effectiveness ratio. Cost-effective care can be achieved by focusing on cardiovascular risk factors in type 2 diabetic patients with a history of CVD.002B21E01A002B22002B30A11DiabèteNM01Diabetes mellitusNM01DiabetesNM01Analyse coût efficacité02Cost efficiency analysis02Análisis costo eficacia02Economie santé03Health economy03Economía salud03Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire04Cardiovascular disease04Aparato circulatorio patología04Soin05Care05Cuidado05Informatisation06Computerization06Informatización06Décision08Decision08Decisión08Prise de décision09Decision making09Toma decision09Traitement11Treatment11Tratamiento11Conduite à tenir12Clinical management12Actitud médica12Facteur risque17Risk factor17Factor riesgo17Risque cardiovasculaire18Cardiovascular risk18Riesgo cardiovascular18Endocrinologie19Endocrinology19Endocrinología19Maladie métabolique20Metabolic diseases20Metabolismo patología20Nutrition21Nutrition21Nutrición21Homme25Human25Hombre25Endocrinopathie37Endocrinopathy37Endocrinopatía37081OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2135Location Choice Modeling for Shopping and Leisure Activities with MATSim: Combining Microsimulation and Time GeographyTravel Behavior 2009. Volume 2HORNI (Andreas)SCOTT (Darren M.)BALMER (Michael)AXHAUSEN (Kay W.)Institute for Transport Planning and Systems (IVT), ETH Zürich8093 ZurichCHE1 aut.3 aut.4 aut.Center for Spatial Analysis, School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster UniversityHamilton, Ontario L8S 4K1CAN2 aut.87-952009ENGINIST10459B3540001809186901100000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.26 ref.10-0122186PATransportation research recordUSAThe activity-based multiagent simulation toolkit MATSim adopts a coevolutionary approach to capturing the patterns of people's activity scheduling and participation behavior at a high level of detail. Until now, the search space of the MATSim system was formed by every agent's route and time choice. This paper focuses on the crucial computational issues that have to be addressed when the system is being extended to include location choice. This results in an enormous search space that would be impossible to explore exhaustively within a reasonable time. With the use of a large-scale scenario, it is shown that the system rapidly converges toward a system's fixed point if the agents' choices are per iteration confined to local steps. This approach was inspired by local search methods in numerical optimization. The study shows that the approach can be incorporated easily and consistently into MATSim by using Hägerstrand's time-geographic approach. This paper additionally presents a first approach to improving the behavioral realism of the MATSim location choice module. A singly constrained model is created; it introduces competition for slots on the activity infrastructure, where the actual load is coupled with time-dependent capacity restraints for every activity location and is incorporated explicitly into the agent's location choice process. As expected, this constrained model reduces the number of implausibly overcrowded activity locations. To the authors' knowledge, incorporating competition in the activity infrastructure has received only marginal attention in multiagent simulations to date, and thus, this contribution is also meant to raise the issue by presenting this new model.001D15ATransports01Transportation01Transportes01Comportement02Behavior02Conducta02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Choix site04Site selection04Elección sitio04Activité05Activity05Actividad05Loisir06Leisure06Ocio06Centre commercial07Shopping center07Centro comercial07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Scénario09Script09Argumento09075PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2128Optimizing Signal Timings from the Field: VISGAOST and VISSIM-ASC/3 Software-in-the-Loop SimulationTraffic Signal Systems 2009STEVANOVIC (Aleksandar)STEVANOVIC (Jelka)MARTIN (Peter T.)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, 122 South Central Campus Drive, Room 104Salt Lake City, Utah 84112-0561USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.114-1202009ENGINIST10459B3540001809126501200000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.20 ref.10-0122157PATransportation research recordUSATraditionally, when traffic signals are retimed, a significant difference is seen between signal timings recommended by optimization software and those implemented in field controllers. Those two sets of signal timings rarely match each other, and often a manual process is involved in transferring the data to and from the field controllers. A method is presented: signal timings are downloaded from field controllers, optimized by a software package, and then uploaded to field controllers. The method is VISGAOST, a stochastic optimization program, working with VISSIM-ASC/3 software-in-the-loop simulation to optimize the signal timings obtained from the field. The method was applied to optimize signal timings for a five-intersection urban arterial segment in West Valley City, Utah. Traffic operations simulated by a high-fidelity VISSIM represented field observations reliably. After thousands of potential signal timings were evaluated, VISGAOST found a better set of signal timings than those used in the field. The final signal timings were tested for robustness under fluctuating traffic in microsimulation. The test results show that these optimized signal timings are more robust than those used in the field. Further applications of the method are needed to test the field performance of the signal timings optimized by VISGAOST.001D14O05001D15C295Feu signalisation01Traffic lights01Semáforo01Timing02Timing02Timing02Optimisation03Optimization03Optimización03Essai en place04In situ test04Ensayo en sitio04Outil linguistique05Linguistic tool05Instrumento lingüístico05Régulation trafic06Traffic control06Regulación tráfico06Trafic routier07Road traffic07Tráfico carretera07Intégration08Integration08Integración08Etude cas09Case study09Estudio caso09Corridor10Corridor10Corredor10Résultat11Result11Resultado11Evaluation performance12Performance evaluation12Evaluación prestación12Résultat mesure13Measurement result13Resultado medición13075PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2128Lost Time and Cycle Length for Actuated Traffic SignalTraffic Signal Systems 2009FURTH (Peter G.)CESME (Burak)MULLER (Theo H. J.)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, 360 Huntington Avenue, Room 400 SNBoston, MA 02115USA1 aut.2 aut.Transportation and Planning Department, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1Delft 2628 CNNLD3 aut.152-1602009ENGINIST10459B3540001809126501600000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.7 ref.10-0122155PATransportation research recordUSATime within an actuated signal cycle can be decomposed into time that is fully used, which is the saturation headway multiplied by the number of passing vehicles, and time that is wasted or lost. Activity network modeling is used to show the interaction between signal timing events and traffic flow transitions. Seven components of generalized lost time are identified: those associated with start-up, minimum green, parallel queue discharge (for simultaneous gap-out), extension green, parallel extension (for nonsimultaneous gap-out), the passing of the critical gap, and phase end. Simple formulas can be used to estimate all of these components for many practical cases, allowing one to estimate average cycle length without iteration. The modeling framework accounts for the dual-ring structure with minimum green and maximum green constraints and on-off settings for recall and simultaneous gap-out. Experiments with microsimulation software verify the formulas developed. The formulas show the sensitivity of lost time, and therefore average cycle length, to parameters that a designer can control including detector setback, critical gap, gap-out settings, and number of lanes. They also show sensitivity to total demand and to the ratio of noncritical to critical phase volumes.001D14O05001D15C295Feu signalisation01Traffic lights01Semáforo01Signalisation commandée par trafic02Traffic actuated signal control02Señalización regulada por tráfico02Trafic routier03Road traffic03Tráfico carretera03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Modèle prévision05Forecast model05Modelo previsión05Longueur06Length06Longitud06Cycle07Cycle07Ciclo07075PSIPSI 0306-2619APENDXAppl. energy86SUP1A dynamic input-output model for nascent bioenergy supply chainsBiofuels in Asia: Sponsored by the Asian Development BankCRUZ (Jose B. JR)TAN (Raymond R.)CULABA (Alvin B.)BALLACILLO (Jo-Anne)YAN (J.)ed.LIN (T.)ed.Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, The Ohio State University. 205 Dreese Laboratory, 2015 Neil AvenueColumbus, OH 43210-1272USA1 aut.Center for Engineering and Sustainable Development Research, De La Salle University, 2401 Taft Avenue1004 ManilaPHL2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.Royal Institute of TechnologyStockholmSWE1 aut.Mälardalen UniversityVästeråsSWE1 aut.Asian Development BankINC2 aut.S86-S942009ENGINIST171623540001711391200900000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.51 ref.10-0117907PAApplied energyGBRThis paper presents a novel multi-time-stage input-output-based modeling framework for simulating the dynamics of bioenergy supply chains. One of the key assumptions used in the model is that the production level at the next time-stage of each segment of the energy supply chain adjusts to the output surplus or deficit relative to targets at the current time period. Furthermore, unlike conventional input-output models, the technology matrix in this approach need not be square, and thus can include coefficients denoting flows of environmental goods, such as natural resources or pollutants. Introducing a feedback control term enables the system to regulate the dynamics, thus extending the model further. This is an important feature since the uncontrolled dynamic model exhibits oscillatory or unstable behavior under some conditions; in principle, the control term allows such undesirable characteristics to be suppressed. Numerical simulations of a simple, two-sector case study are given to illustrate dynamic behavior under different scenarios. Although the case study uses only a hypothetical system, preliminary comparisons are made between the simulation results and some broad trends seen in real bioenergy systems. Finally, some of the main policy implications of the model are discussed based on the general dynamic characteristics seen in the case study. In particular, insights from control theory can be used to develop policy interventions to impart desirable dynamic characteristics to nascent or emerging biofuel supply chains. These interventions can be used to guide the growth of bioenergy supplies along final demand trajectories with minimal fluctuation and no instability.001D06A01C5001D06A01A230Biocarburant01Biofuel01Biocarburante01Approvisionnement02Supply02Aprovisionamiento02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Modèle entrée sortie04Input output model04Modelo input-output04Modèle économétrique05Econometric model05Modelo econométrico05Modèle Léontief06Leontief model06Modelo Leontief06Modèle dynamique07Dynamic model07Modelo dinámico07Scénario08Script08Argumento08Technologie09Technology09Tecnología09Flux information10Information flow10Flujo información10Réponse dynamique11Dynamic response11Respuesta dinámica11Ressource12Resource12Recurso12Production13Production13Producción13075 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2130Replication of Work Zone Capacity Values in a Simulation ModelHighway Capacity and Quality of Service 2009CHATTERJEE (Indrajit)EDARA (Praveen)MENNENI (Sandeep)SUN (Carlos)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Missouri-ColumbiaColumbia, MO 65211USA1 aut.2 aut.4 aut.PTV America, Inc., 9755 Southwest Barnes Road, Suite 550Portland, OR 97225USA3 aut.138-1482009ENGINIST10459B3540001808296701700000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.21 ref.10-0113038PATransportation research recordUSAEvaluating the traffic impacts of work zones is vital for any transportation agency to plan and schedule work activity. Traffic impacts can be estimated by using microscopic simulation models. One challenge in using these software models is obtaining the desired work zone capacity values, which tend to vary from state to state. Thus, the default parameter values in the model that are suitable for normal traffic conditions are unsuitable for work zone conditions, let alone for conditions specific to particular states. Although a few studies have been conducted on parameter selection to obtain desired capacity values, none of them have provided a convenient look-up table (or chart) for the parameter values that will replicate field-observed capacities. Without such provision it has not been possible for state agencies to use any of the research recommendations. This study provides the practitioner a simple method for choosing appropriate values of driving behavior parameters in the VISSIM microsimulation model to match the desired field capacity for work zones operating in a typical early-merge system. The two most significant car-following parameters and one lane-changing parameter were selected and varied to obtain different work zone capacity values. CC1 is the desired time headway, CC2 is the longitudinal following threshold during a following process, and the safety distance reduction factor is representative of lane-changing aggressiveness. It has been verified that the recommended parameter values not only produce the desired capacities but also create traffic conditions consistent with traffic flow theory.001D14O06001D15C295Route01Highway01Carretera01Chantier02Working site02Taller02Voirie03Road work03Vialidad03Capacité04Capacity04Capacidad04Trafic routier05Road traffic05Tráfico carretera05Modélisation06Modeling06Modelización06Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Programme simulation08Simulation program08Programa simulación08Méthodologie09Methodology09Metodología09Expérimentation10Experimentation10Experimentación10Résultat11Result11Resultado11067PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2130Turbo Roundabouts: Estimation of CapacityHighway Capacity and Quality of Service 2009FORTUIJN (Lambertus G. H.)Transport and Planning Department, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, TU Delft (Delft University of Technology), Stevinweg 12628 CN DelftNLD1 aut.Province of South Holland, P.O. Box 906022509 LP, The HagueNLD1 aut.83-922009ENGINIST10459B3540001808296701100000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.18 ref.10-0112982PATransportation research recordUSAThe Dutch turbo roundabout is characterized by predictable lane use and radial connecting entries. To calculate the capacity, in 1997 the multilane roundabout explorer was developed by modification of the capacity model of Bovy, which considered both separated lanes and pseudoconflict. Because of its linear structure, this model did not take into account multilane roundabout properties in a good way. Therefore a new model was developed by modification of the model of Hagring. Using only the gap acceptance approach to calibrate the parameters is not sufficient because the pseudoconflict is not taken into account. A combination with a stream approach is necessary. For validation of an analytic model, it is important to realize that the distribution of gaps offered in two flows simultaneously is determined primarily by a stochastic process. Thus, it is possible to test the effect of the distribution of the flows over two circulatory lanes by using a microsimulation model. The parameters needed to tailor VISSIM microsimulation software for this purpose were estimated. It is concluded that a VISSIM model may be suitable for the analysis of both single-lane and two-lane roundabouts. This paper deals with this combined approach. The findings are that (a) the pseudoconflict should be taken into account and (b) the turbo roundabout will have a larger capacity than the Dutch standard concentric double-lane roundabout because of the better circulatory lane-split.001D14O02001D15C295Carrefour giratoire01Roundabout01Bifurcación giratoria01Ecoulement trafic02Traffic flow02Flujo tráfico02Trafic routier03Road traffic03Tráfico carretera03Capacité04Capacity04Capacidad04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Estimation06Estimation06Estimación06Méthode analytique07Analytical method07Método analítico07Etalonnage08Calibration08Contraste08Conflit09Conflict09Conflicto09Etude comparative10Comparative study10Estudio comparativo10Simulation11Simulation11Simulación11Résultat12Result12Resultado12067PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2139Vehicle Capacity and Fuel Consumption in Household Fleets: Constraint-Based Microsimulation ModelEnergy and Global Climate Change 2009BOLON (Kevin)KEOLEIAN (Greg)KOSTYNIUK (Lidia P.)School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Dana Building, 440 Church StreetAnn Arbor, MI 48109-1041USA1 aut.2 aut.University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, 2901 Baxter RoadAnn Arbor, MI 4B109-2150USA3 aut.73-802009ENGINIST10459B3540001808299100900000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.10-0108986PATransportation research recordUSAVehicle capability is one of the factors that constrain the set of transportation options available for personal transportation. The capacity for carrying passengers and cargo is of particular interest when energy consumption is considered, because the use of more efficient vehicles may be limited for trips with higher load requirements. This paper presents a method for considering trip capacity requirements when the available vehicles are assigned to the trips on a household activity schedule. A constraint-based vehicle assignment model that uses the trip data from the 2001 National Household Travel Survey as an example is introduced. Initial results from the analysis of these data show that by optimally assigning existing vehicles to trips, the average value of potential fuel savings ranges from 5% to 23%, depending on the size and vehicle type composition of the household fleet. Households with more vehicles in the fleet and a more diverse range of vehicles to choose from are able to achieve greater fuel savings than those with more homogeneous fleets. Considering the extent to which household vehicle assignment decisions were already consistent with the minimization of fuel consumption, in 2001 actual household vehicle assignment was, on average, only slightly better than random.001D15C001D06D01230Automobile01Motor car01Automóvil01Consommation carburant02Motor fuel consumption02Consumo carburante02Ménage03Household03Familia03Flotte04Fleet04Capacité05Capacity05Capacidad05Modélisation06Modeling06Modelización06Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Analyse contrainte08Stress analysis08Análisis tensión08Application09Application09Aplicación09Enquête10Survey10Encuesta10Etude comparative11Comparative study11Estudio comparativo11Résultat12Result12Resultado12067PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2133Sensitivity Testing with the Oregon Statewide Integrated ModelTravel Demand Forecasting 2009. Volume 2WEIDNER (Tara)KNUDSON (Becky)PICADO (Rosella)HUNT (J. D.)Parsons Brinckerhoff, 400 Southwest Sixth Avenue, Suite 802Portland, OR 97204-1412USA1 aut.Oregon Department of Transportation, 555 13th Street NortheastSalem, OR 97301-4178USA2 aut.Parsons Brinckerhoff, 999 Third Avenue, Suite 2200Seattle, WA 98104USA3 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NorthwestCalgary, Alberta T2N 1 N4CAN4 aut.109-1222009ENGINIST10459B3540001808298301200000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.22 ref.10-0108965PATransportation research recordUSAOregon has a long history of developing and using integrated economic, land use-transport models. Development of the Oregon Statewide Integrated Model (SWIM) was commissioned by the Oregon Department of Transportation as part of its Transportation and Land Use Model Improvement Program within the larger Oregon Modeling Improvement Program. The first version model, now named SWIM1, has been used in numerous applications since the late 1990s. A more extensive second version, SWIM2, is now available. It uses the PECAS economic input-output activity allocation framework, an aggregate model of spatial development and microsimulation models of freight and person transport. This paper describes the work considered in the later stages of development of the SWIM2 model, including results of sensitivity testing and reports on concurrent actions to transfer the model to agency operation. The sensitivity tests considered three alternative scenarios covering the evolution of the statewide spatial economic and transport systems over a 19-year period. Each scenario was compared to a reference case. In one scenario, highway capacity was increased substantially along an Interstate corridor radiating out from the Portland metropolitan area for more than 100 mi. In the other two scenarios, the costs for vehicle travel were increased four- and 10-fold over 1998 costs. The model system was found to respond consistent with a priori expectations. Population and employment shift to areas of comparatively better accessibilities, urban densities change, trip lengths and modes change, and floor space development and prices respond to these changes in patterns that evolve across the state over time.001D15BDemande transport01Transport demand01Demanda transporte01Prévision demande02Demand forecasting02Previsión demanda02Occupation sol03Land use03Ocupación terreno03OregonNG04OregonNG04OregonNG04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Gestion intégrée06Integrated management06Gestión integrada06Analyse sensibilité07Sensitivity analysis07Análisis sensibilidad07Application08Application08Aplicación08Zone urbaine09Urban area09Zona urbana09Capacité10Capacity10Capacidad10Réseau routier11Road network11Red carretera11Scénario12Script12Argumento12Analyse coût13Cost analysis13Análisis costo13Résultat14Result14Resultado14Evaluation performance15Performance evaluation15Evaluación prestación15Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG067PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2133Anticipating Welfare Impacts via Travel Demand Forecasting Models: Comparison of Aggregate and Activity-Based Approaches for the Austin, Texas, RegionTravel Demand Forecasting 2009. Volume 2LEMP (Jason D.)KOCKELMAN (Kara M.)Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of I exas at Austin, 6.508. Cockrell Jr. HallAustin, IX 78712-1076USA1 aut.Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of I exas at Austin, 6.9 E. Cockrell Jr. HallAustin, I X 78712-1076USA2 aut.11-222009ENGINIST10459B3540001808298300200000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.21 ref.10-0108946PATransportation research recordUSAA great disparity exists between the direction of travel demand forecasting by researchers and the travel demand models used by transportation planning organizations. Activity-based models of travel demand have become increasingly studied in the academic realm, and significant advances have been made in recent years. However, travel demand forecasting tools used in practice have lagged and rely on traditional, aggregate four- or five-step approaches. One reason behind the divergence in methods is the lack of work that directly compares performance of the two approaches. This research provides such a comparison, with an emphasis on calculations of traveler welfare. A traditional, aggregate model and an activity-based microsimulation model of travel demand were developed in parallel by using the same data for Austin, Texas. The models were applied for a base scenario and for several policy scenarios to test model performance and sensitivity to inputs. The spatial distribution of traveler welfare implied by these scenarios illuminates a variety of key differences in the models' performance and suggests that the activity-based model enjoys a greater sensitivity to inputs. Additional outputs demonstrate the level of segmentation that can be attained in model outputs using microsimulation methods. The comparative analysis of these two competing approaches to travel demand forecasting also offers some insight into the practical benefits of an activity-based approach.001D15BDemande transport01Transport demand01Demanda transporte01Prévision demande02Demand forecasting02Previsión demanda02Modèle prévision03Forecast model03Modelo previsión03Etude comparative04Comparative study04Estudio comparativo04Etude impact05Impact study05Estudio impacto05Activité06Activity06Actividad06TexasNG07TexasNG07TexasNG07Affectation trafic08Traffic assignment08Afectación tráfico08Méthode calcul09Computing method09Método cálculo09Bien-être10Well being10Bienestar10Scénario11Script11Argumento11Résultat12Result12Resultado12Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG067PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2124How Parameters of Microscopic Traffic Flow Models Relate to Traffic Dynamics in Simulation: Implications for Model CalibrationTraffic Flow Theory, Characteristics, and Simulation Models 2009PUNZO (Vincenzo)CIUFFO (Biagio)Department of Transportation Engineering, Università di Napoli &dquot;Federico II,&dquot; Via Claudio80125 NapoliITA1 aut.2 aut.249-2562009ENGINIST10459B3540001808295902500000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.21 ref.10-0108886PATransportation research recordUSASeveral methodological issues in setting up a calibration process for traffic microsimulation models are still unresolved. The influence of individual parameters of microscopic models on simulated traffic dynamics is also far from clear. To address those issues, the paper sets up a methodology based on the sensitivity analysis of traffic flow models (the one used here is AIMSUN). Sensitivity analysis was performed by means of a series of 30 analyses of variance. These were designed to evaluate the effect of parameters on the variance of the simulated outputs and to draw a general inference about (a) the proper interval for the aggregation of measurements, (b) the proper measure of performance (e.g., traffic counts versus speeds), (c) the proper traffic measurement locations, and (d) the subset of parameters to calibrate. The analysis allowed quantification of the effect of the single parameters on different traffic phases. For example, it was possible to quantify the extent of the influence of the parameter reaction time on simulated outputs in locations in which free flow, rather than congested conditions, occurs. The great differences between parameters in affecting the different traffic phases suggested that parameters are likely to be calibrated independently, that is, using data from different locations. The first evidence of the possibility of breaking the calibration problem into two subproblems is given. This entails great benefits in regard to computational time, given the exponential computational complexity of the calibration problem.001D15BEcoulement trafic01Traffic flow01Flujo tráfico01Etude théorique02Theoretical study02Estudio teórico02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Modèle dynamique04Dynamic model04Modelo dinámico04Modèle microscopique05Microscopic model05Modelo microscópico05Etalonnage06Calibration06Contraste06Méthodologie07Methodology07Metodología07Implémentation08Implementation08Implementación08Etude cas09Case study09Estudio caso09Scénario10Script10Argumento10Autoroute11Freeway11Autopista11ItalieNG12ItalyNG12ItaliaNG12Résultat mesure13Measurement result13Resultado medición13EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG067PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2124Effects of Heterogeneity on Self-Organized Pedestrian FlowsTraffic Flow Theory, Characteristics, and Simulation Models 2009CAMPANELLA (Mario)HOOGENDOORN (Serge P.)DAAMEN (Winnie)Department of Transport and Planning, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geo-sciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 12628 CN DelftNLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.148-1562009ENGINIST10459B3540001808295901400000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.18 ref.10-0108879PATransportation research recordUSAThis investigation focuses on how the heterogeneity of pedestrian characteristics influences the buildup of congestion and affects the efficiency of pedestrian flows. Three commonly used parameters in pedestrian models-desired speed, body size, and reaction time-were varied in the population. Real pedestrian flows are heterogeneous regarding pedestrian characteristics. However, not much is known about the way that affects the qualities of the flow and how important it is to the outcomes of microsimulation models. The NOMAD model developed by Delft University of Technology is used to perform simulations in which the aforementioned heterogeneity is introduced. The investigation was carried out by creating bidirectional flows with fixed demands. The flows were analyzed by observing the development of breakdowns, average speeds, and average densities for different demands. It is shown that the influence of heterogeneity on breakdown probabilities and flow efficiency is considerable. To investigate this further, the dynamic lane formation process is investigated in detail. In addition to further insights into the causes for breakdown, it is found that the number of lanes increases with the decrease in heterogeneity in desired speed and in body size. However the opposite happens for heterogeneity in reaction time. Results indicate that heterogeneity in the population has a large impact on the flow quality and should be included in models explicitly to improve prediction performance.001D15B001D15CEcoulement trafic01Traffic flow01Flujo tráfico01Etude théorique02Theoretical study02Estudio teórico02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Trafic piéton04Pedestrian traffic04Tráfico peatones04Hétérogénéité05Heterogeneity05Heterogeneidad05Autoorganisation06Self organization06Autoorganización06Dispositif expérimental07Experimental device07Dispositivo experimental07Scénario08Script08Argumento08Résultat09Result09Resultado09Simulation10Simulation10Simulación10Probabilité11Probability11Probabilidad11Validation12Validation12Validación12067PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2111Scheduling Buses to Take Advantage of Transit Signal PriorityTransit 2009: volume 2ALTUN (Selman Z.)FURTH (Peter G.)Kittelson & Associates, Inc., Suite 800, 33 North Stone AvenueTucson, AZ 85701USA1 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, 400 SN, 360 Huntington AvenueBoston, MA 02115USA2 aut.50-592009ENGINIST10459B3540001715867700700000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.9 ref.10-0101324PATransportation research recordUSATransit signal priority can improve bus operations when it is applied to a route without making any changes to its route design or management; however, benefits can be greater if service design and management policies are purposely altered to take advantage of transit signal priority. Service design issues include generating carefully constructed schedules for use with conditional priority and deciding whether to locate stops on the near side or far side of intersections. Management issues include using conditional priority as a means to give priority only to late buses and deciding whether to hold buses at bus stops until a scheduled departure time, in case conditional priority itself does not offer the desired level of operational control. An optimal level of aggressiveness in the running time schedule is sought as a balance between mean running time with and without priority, assuming that priority will be conditional. With a more aggressive schedule, buses will be late and therefore will request (and get) priority more often; however, a more aggressive schedule also offers less slack to compensate for random delays. Analysis uses both a spreadsheet-based simulation model and a traffic microsimulation model that account for random delays at dispatch and at traffic signals, the effect of crowding on dwell time, and choice of priority and operational control tactics. It is found that optimal performance uses conditional priority and holding, but with an aggressive schedule, leading to substantial reductions in mean running time, standard deviation of running time, headway irregularity, and crowding.001D15C001D15BTransport routier01Road transportation01Transporte por carretera01Transport voyageur02Passenger transportation02Transporte pasajero02Ordonnancement03Scheduling03Reglamento03Signal04Signal04Señal04Priorité05Priority05Prioridad05Application06Application06Aplicación06OregonNG07OregonNG07OregonNG07Méthode calcul08Computing method08Método cálculo08Modélisation09Modeling09Modelización09Modèle simulation10Simulation model10Modelo simulación10Méthode Monte Carlo11Monte Carlo method11Método Monte Carlo11Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG067PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2110Assessing the Contribution and the Feasibility of a Citywide Personal Rapid Transit SystemTransit 2009. Volume 1MUIR (Helen)JEFFERY (David)MAY (Anthony D.)TRIPODI (Antonino)SHEPHERD (Simon)VAA (Torgeir)Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, University RoadLeeds LS2 9JTGBR1 aut.3 aut.5 aut.Transportation Research Group, University of SouthamptonSouthampton, S017 1BJGBR2 aut.Research Centre for Transport and Logistic, University of Rome &dquot;La Sapienza,&dquot; via Eudossiana, 1800184, RomeITA4 aut.Transport Safety and Informatics, S. P. Andersens Road 57465 TrondheimNOR6 aut.163-1702009ENGINIST10459B3540001717722202000000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.13 ref.10-0098448PATransportation research recordUSAThere is renewed interest in Europe in the potential role of new automated technologies for urban transport. One such system is personal rapid transit (PRT), a system of automated demand-responsive vehicles designed to transport individuals directly to their destinations. Assessing the contribution of such a system when applied extensively in an urban area is challenging. Methods used to assess the potential viability of traditional systems have to be updated to incorporate the new technologies. Several interrelated methods are examined to assess the feasibility and potential benefits of a citywide PRT system by using a case study region. Microsimulation analysis is used to obtain relationships between network characteristics, level of service, demand, and system performances. Outputs from this analysis feed into the strategic model that is used to test the contribution that such a system will make. Outputs from both the microsimulation and strategic modeling are used in the creation and running of a business case tool that provides the basis of the economic justification for such a scheme. Finally, barriers to the introduction of a PRT system are described, along with means of overcoming them.001D15ASystème transport01Transportation system01Sistema de transporte01Faisabilité02Feasibility02Practicabilidad02Transport urbain03Urban transportation03Transporte urbano03Evaluation projet04Project evaluation04Evaluación proyecto04Technologie05Technology05Tecnología05Application06Application06Aplicación06Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Modélisation08Modeling08Modelización08Stratégie09Strategy09Estrategia09Transport public10Public transportation10Transporte público10Etude cas11Case study11Estudio caso11AngleterreNG12EnglandNG12InglaterraNG12Implémentation13Implementation13Implementación13Transport en commun individuelCD96Personal rapid transitCD96Grande BretagneNGGreat BritainNGGran BretañaNGRoyaume-UniNGUnited KingdomNGReino UnidoNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG060PSIPSI 0162-1459JSTNALJ. Am. Stat. Assoc.104488Bayesian Calibration of Microsimulation ModelsRUTTER (Carolyn M.)MIGLIORETTI (Diana L.)SAVARINO (James E.)Group Health Center for Health StudiesSeattle, WA 98101USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.Department of Biostatistics and Health Services, University of WashingtonWA 98195USA1 aut.Deparment of Biostatistics, University of WashingtonWA 98195USA2 aut.1338-13502009ENGINIST30943540001808290000300000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/410-0088398PAJournal of the American Statistical AssociationUSAMicrosimulation models that describe disease processes synthesize information from multiple sources and can be used to estimate the effects of screening and treatment on cancer incidence and mortality at a population level. These models are characterized by simulation of individual event histories for an idealized population of interest. Microsimulation models are complex and invariably include parameters that are not well informed by existing data. Therefore, a key component of model development is the choice of parameter values. Microsimulation model parameter values are selected to reproduce expected or known results though the process of model calibration. Calibration may be done by perturbing model parameters one at a time or by using a search algorithm. As an alternative, we propose a Bayesian method to calibrate microsimulation models that uses Markov chain Monte Carlo. We show that this approach converges to the target distribution and use a simulation study to demonstrate its finite-sample performance. Although computationally intensive, this approach has several advantages over previously proposed methods, including the use of statistical criteria to select parameter values, simultaneous calibration of multiple parameters to multiple data sources, incorporation of information via prior distributions, description of parameter identifiability, and the ability to obtain interval estimates of model parameters. We develop a microsimulation model for colorectal cancer and use our proposed method to calibrate model parameters. The microsimulation model provides a good fit to the calibration data. We find evidence that some parameters are identified primarily through prior distributions. Our results underscore the need to incorporate multiple sources of variability (i.e., due to calibration data, unknown parameters, and estimated parameters and predicted values) when calibrating and applying microsimulation models.001A02H02A001A02H02N001A02H02H001A02I01QEstimation statistique01Statistical estimation01Estimación estadística01Estimation non paramétrique02Non parametric estimation02Estimación no paramétrica02Méthode stochastique03Stochastic method03Método estocástico03Distribution statistique04Statistical distribution04Distribución estadística04Théorie approximation05Approximation theory05Analyse numérique06Numerical analysis06Análisis numérico06Estimation Bayes17Bayes estimation17Estimación Bayes17Ajustement modèle18Model matching18Ajustamiento modelo18Efficacité traitement19Treatment efficiency19Eficacia tratamiento19Mortalité20Mortality20Mortalidad20Modèle simulation21Simulation model21Modelo simulación21Algorithme recherche22Search algorithm22Algoritmo búsqueda22Modèle Markov23Markov model23Modelo Markov23Méthode Monte Carlo24Monte Carlo method24Método Monte Carlo24Fonction répartition25Distribution function25Función distribución25Simulation statistique26Statistical simulation26Simulación estadística26Paramètre statistique27Statistical parameter27Parámetro estadístico27Information a priori28Prior information28Información a priori28Loi a priori29Prior distribution29Ley a priori29Identifiabilité30Identifiability30Identificabilidad30Chaîne Markov31Markov chain31Cadena Markov31Méthode statistique32Statistical method32Método estadístico32Application33Application33Aplicación3362G05INC7065C40INC7162E17INC7265C05INC7360E05INC7460J10INC75Effet traitementCD96Treatment effectCD96Algorithme QRCD97OR algorithmCD97Echantillon finiCD98Finite sampleCD98060OTOOTO 0149-2918Clin. ther.3112Results of a Markov Model Analysis to Assess the Cost-Effectiveness of Statin Therapy for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in Korea: The Korean Individual-Microsimulation Model for Cardiovascular Health InterventionsKANG (Hye-Young)KO (Su-Kyoung)LIEW (Danny)Graduate School of Public Health, Institute of Health Services Research, Yonsei UniversitySeoulKOR1 aut.Outcomes Research Department, Pfizer Pharmaceuticals Korea LimitedSeoulKOR2 aut.Department of Medicine, St. Vincent's Hospital, University of MelbourneFitzroy, VictoriaAUS3 aut.2919-29302009ENGINIST183533540001808099501400000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.35 ref.10-0072468PAClinical therapeuticsUSABackground: Although hyperlipidemia is well recognized as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), there has been no appraisal of the economic impact of statin therapy in Korea. Objective: The aim of this model analysis was to determine the cost-effectiveness of statin therapy versus no treatment for the primary prevention of CVD over a lifetime in Korea, from a health care system perspective. Methods: We developed the Korean Individual-Microsimulation Model for Cardiovascular Health Interventions (KIMCHI), an epidemiologic and economic Markov model of first-onset CVD in Korea in which all individuals began the simulation in the health state alive without CVD, and moved among the 4 health states (alive without CVD, alive with CVD, dead from CVD, and dead from non-CVD causes) in yearly cycles for any specified time horizon, up to 40 years. KIMCHI was populated with 372 subjects from the 2005 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHNES) who were aged >45 years, did not have a history of myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke, and met current Korean reimbursement criteria for treatment with lipid-lowering medications. The probability of first-onset CVD was estimated for each study participant individually, based on an Asian population-specific risk equation that relied on an individual's sex, age, serum total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, current smoking status, diabetes mellitus status, and body mass index. Statin treatment was represented by a hybrid of atorvastatin and simvastatin (the most popular statins in Korea), the lipid-modifying effects of which were derived from a published meta-analysis. Data regarding utilities and costs of CVD (both those covered and not covered by insurance) were derived from published local sources. Results: In the base case, the estimated incremental cost-utility ratio was 15,134,284 Korean won (KRW) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, and the estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was 20,657,829 KRW per life-year gained (LYG) (1200 KRW ≃ US $1). Based on a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 30 million KRW per QALY saved, there was a 93.7% probability that statin therapy would be cost-effective. Given a WTP threshold of 20 million KRW per QALY, there was a 53.8% probability of being cost-effective. The probabilities at WTP thresholds of 30 and 20 million KRW per LYG were 62.4% and 25.8%, respectively. Conclusions: Based on this analysis using data from the 2005 KNHNES and the KIMCHI model, statin therapy is likely to be cost-effective for the primary prevention of CVD among Koreans aged >45 years. The probability of being cost-effective was greater at a threshold of 30 million KRW per QALY (93.7%) than at 20 million KRW per QALY (53.8%).002B02002B22A002B17CModèle Markov01Markov model01Modelo Markov01Economie santé02Health economy02Economía salud02Analyse coût efficacité03Cost efficiency analysis03Análisis costo eficacia03Dérivé de la statineNKFR04Statin derivativeNKFR04Statina derivadoNKFR04Traitement05Treatment05Tratamiento05Primaire06Primary06Primario06Prévention07Prevention07Prevención07Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire08Cardiovascular disease08Aparato circulatorio patología08CoréeNG09KoreaNG09CoreaNG09Homme10Human10Hombre10Appareil circulatoire11Circulatory system11Aparato circulatorio11Santé12Health12Salud12HyperlipémieNM13HyperlipemiaNM13HiperlipemiaNM13Accident cérébrovasculaire14Stroke14Accidente cerebrovascular14Hypolipémiant23Antilipemic agent23Hipolipemiante23Lipide24Lipids24Lípido24AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNGMaladie métabolique37Metabolic diseases37Metabolismo patología37DyslipémieNM38DyslipemiaNM38DislipemiaNM38Pathologie cérébrovasculaire39Cerebrovascular disease39Vaso sanguíneo encéfalo patología39Pathologie du système nerveux40Nervous system diseases40Sistema nervioso patología40Pathologie de l'encéphale41Cerebral disorder41Encéfalo patología41Pathologie du système nerveux central42Central nervous system disease42Sistema nervosio central patología42Pathologie des vaisseaux sanguins43Vascular disease43Vaso sanguíneo patología43046OTOOTO 0937-941XOsteoporos. int.211Cost-utility of long-term strontium ranelate treatment for postmenopausal osteoporotic womenHILIGSMANN (M.)BRUYERE (O.)REGINSTER (J.-Y.)Department of Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics, University of Liège, Avenue de l'hôpital 3, Bat B234000 LiègeBEL2 aut.3 aut.Department of Economics, University of LiègeLiègeBEL1 aut.157-1652010ENGINIST229743540001899585301700000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.50 ref.10-0069327PAOsteoporosis internationalGBRSummary The results of this study suggested that long-term treatment with strontium ranelate over 5 years is cost-effective compared to no treatment for postmenopausal osteoporotic women. Introduction This study aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of long-term strontium ranelate treatment for postmenopausal osteoporotic women. Methods A validated Markov microsimulation model with a Belgian healthcare cost perspective was used to assess the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of strontium ranelate compared to no treatment, on a basis of calcium/vit D supplementation if needed. Analyses were performed for women aged 70, 75, and 80 years either with a bone mineral density T-score≤-2.5 SD or with prevalent vertebral fractures. The relative risk of fracture during therapy was derived from the Treatment of Peripheral Osteoporosis Study trial over 5 years of treatment. Parameter uncertainty was evaluated using both univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Results Strontium ranelate was cost-saving at the age of 80 years in both populations. For women with a T-score≤ -2.5 SD, the costs per QALY gained of strontium ranelate were respectively <euro sign>15,096 and <euro sign>6,913 at 70 and 75 years of age while these values were <euro sign>23,426 and <euro sign>9,698 for women with prevalent vertebral fractures. Sensitivity analyses showed that the results were robust over a wide range of assumptions. Conclusion This study suggested that, compared to no treatment, long-term strontium ranelate treatment is cost-effective for postmenopausal osteoporotic women.002B15AOstéoporose01Osteoporosis01Osteoporosis01Ranélate de strontiumFR04Strontium ranelateFR04Ranelat d'estronciFR04Coût07Costs07Coste07Long terme08Long term08Largo plazo08Traitement09Treatment09Tratamiento09Postménopause13Postmenopause13Postmenopausia13Femme14Woman14Mujer14Rhumatologie16Rheumatology16Reumatología16HommeHumanHombreEconomie santé37Health economy37Economía salud37Pathologie du système ostéoarticulaire38Diseases of the osteoarticular system38Sistema osteoarticular patología38Santé publique39Public health39Salud pública39046OTOOTO 1746-4498v. 107The transportation planning process in SlovakiaUrban transport XV : urban transport and the environmentCELKO (J.)GAVULOVA (A.)DRLICIAK (M.)BREBBIA (C. A.)ed.Department of Highway Engineering, Civil Engineering Faculty, University of ZilinaSVK1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.213-2222009ENGWITSouthampton978-1-8456-4190-01-8456-4190-6INISTY 393893540001729995002000000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.9 ref.10-0048996PCATransactions on the built environmentGBRThe quality traffic-planning process is an important tool for achieving sustainable traffic. The modern platform for modelling and simulating traffic relations has also begun to be utilized in Slovakia. The Department of Civil Engineering at the University of Zilina uses German software PTV VISION. The complex multi-modal traffic model for Zilina town was created with PTV VISION modules (Visem, Visum, Vissim). The article presents the process of formation, calibration and practical utilization of a traffic model for city traffic problem solution. The micro simulation of critical zones amends the traffic model. The classic four-stage disaggregate process was applied for Zilina transport modelling. The town was split into 108 traffic zones. The traffic zones were classified by social and demographic characteristics. Six groups of population were classified within the study area. The matrices of interzonal transport relations were used as output data of the VISEM module and the matrices were used for assignments of the traffic network. Parameters in the infrastructure network and traffic zones were defined in the VISUM module. The result of many years experience in the field of traffic engineering was inserted in the traffic model. We have used our large database of traffic surveys and the results of transport-sociological analyses. The data were useful for the setting and calibration of the traffic model. We set up new local parameters for a distribution function. The impact of new developing areas and induced traffic relations on the central part of Zilina was also observed. Next, the new transport relations and traffic problems were analysed. This chosen part of the transport network was imported into a microsimulation model in the VISSIM. New alternative transport solutions and the impact on the infrastructure loading were explored in microscopic models. The quality of traffic load depends on the input data in the microsimulation. The best way is by using the complex macroscopic point of view.001D15BTransport urbain01Urban transportation01Transporte urbano01Planification02Planning02Planificación02SlovaquieNG03SlovakiaNG03EslovaquiaNG03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Simulation05Simulation05Simulación05Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG032PSIPSIInternational Conference on Urban Transport and the Environment15Bologna ITA2009 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1541Short and long run causality measures: Theory and inferenceDUFOUR (Jean-Marie)TAAMOUTI (Abderrahim)McGill University, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative (CIREQ)CAN1 aut.Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations (CIRANO)CAN1 aut.Departamento de Economía, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid Calle Madrid126 28903 Getafe (Madrid)ESP2 aut.42-582010ENGINIST164603540001717237100400000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.10-0031636PAJournal of econometricsNLDThe concept of causality introduced by Wiener [Wiener, N., 1956. The theory of prediction, In: E.F. Beckenback, ed., The Theory of Prediction, McGraw-Hill, New York (Chapter 8)] and Granger [Granger, C. W.J., 1969. Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods, Econometrica 37, 424-459] is defined in terms of predictability one period ahead. This concept can be generalized by considering causality at any given horizon h as well as tests for the corresponding non-causality [Dufour, J.-M., Renault, E., 1998. Short-run and long-run causality in time series: Theory. Econometrica 66,1099-1125; Dufour, J.-M., Pelletier, D., Renault, É., 2006. Short run and long run causality in time series: Inference, Journal of Econometrics 132 (2), 337-362]. Instead of tests for non-causality at a given horizon, we study the problem of measuring causality between two vector processes. Existing causality measures have been defined only for the horizon 1, and they fail to capture indirect causality. We propose generalizations to any horizon h of the measures introduced by Geweke [Geweke, J., 1982. Measurement of linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series. Journal of the American Statistical Association 77, 304-313]. Nonparametric and parametric measures of unidirectional causality and instantaneous effects are considered. On noting that the causality measures typically involve complex functions of model parameters in VAR and VARMA models, we propose a simple simulation-based method to evaluate these measures for any VARMA model. We also describe asymptotically valid nonparametric confidence intervals, based on a bootstrap technique. Finally, the proposed measures are applied to study causality relations at different horizons between macroeconomic, monetary and financial variables in the US.001A02H02N2001A02E02001A02H01H001A02H02MProcessus stochastique01Stochastic process01Proceso estocástico01Théorie filtrage02Filtering theory02Sciences économiques03Economic sciences03Ciencias económicas03Autocorrélation04Autocorrelation04Autocorrelación04Analyse multivariable05Multivariate analysis05Análisis multivariable05Méthode rééchantillonnage06Resampling method06Méthode jackknife07Jackknife method07Método jackknife07Finance08Finance08Finanzas08Théorie mesure17Measure theory17Teoría medida17Estimation statistique18Statistical estimation18Estimación estadística18Théorie prédiction19Prediction theory19Prédiction20Prediction20Predicción20Modèle économétrique21Econometric model21Modelo econométrico21Econométrie22Econometrics22Econometría22Méthode spectrale23Spectral method23Método espectral23Prédictabilité24Predictability24Predictabilidad24Série temporelle25Time series25Serie temporal25Boucle réaction26Feedback26Retroalimentación26Association statistique27Statistical association27Asociación estadística27Estimation non paramétrique28Non parametric estimation28Estimación no paramétrica28Fonction complexe29Complex function29Función compleja29Simulation30Simulation30Simulación30Intervalle confiance31Confidence interval31Intervalo confianza31Bootstrap32Bootstrap32Bootstrap32Méthode statistique33Statistical method33Método estadístico33Analyse donnée34Data analysis34Análisis datos34Donnée économique35Economic data35Dato económico3528XXINC7060G25INC7162M20INC7262P20INC7362M10INC7462H20INC7562F25INC7662G15INC7762F40INC7862P05INC79Estimation paramétriqueINC80Sciences actuariellesINC81018OTOOTO 0140-9883EECODREnergy econ.314Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk: Application to oil marketMARIMOUTOU (Velayoudoum)RAGGAD (Bechir)TRABELSI (Abdelwahed)GREQAM, Université de la Méditerranée, Institut Français de PondichéryFRA1 aut.BESTMOD. Institut Supérieur de Gestion de TunisTUN2 aut.3 aut.519-5302009ENGINIST182313540001885911700200000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.10-0019799PAEnergy economicsGBRRecent increases in energy prices, especially oil prices, have become a principal concern for consumers, corporations, and governments. Most analysts believe that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity. Oil markets have become relatively free, resulting in a high degree of oil-price volatility and generating radical changes to world energy and oil industries. Consequently, oil markets are naturally vulnerable to significant high price shifts. An example of such a case is the oil embargo crisis of 1973. In this newly created climate, protection against market risk has become a necessity. Value at Risk (VaR) measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management. Appealing aspects of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) have made convincing arguments for its use in managing energy price risks. In this paper, we model VaR for long and short trading positions in oil market by applying both unconditional and conditional EVT models to forecast Value at Risk. These models are compared to the performances of other well-known modelling techniques, such as GARCH, Historical Simulation and Filtered Historical Simulation. Both conditional EVT and Filtered Historical Simulation procedures offer a major improvement over the conventional methods. Furthermore, GARCH(1,1)-t model may provide equally good results which are comparable to two combined procedures. Finally, our results confirm the importance of filtering process for the success of standard approaches.001D06A01C2B001D06A01A230Economie pétrolière01Oil economy01Economía petrolera01PétroleFX02PetroleumFX02PetróleoFX02Prix03Price03Precio03Volatilité04Volatility04Volatibilidad04Analyse risque05Risk analysis05Análisis riesgo05Gestion risque06Risk management06Gestión riesgo06Méthodologie07Methodology07Metodología07Modèle économétrique08Econometric model08Modelo econométrico08Valeur exposéeCD96Value at riskCD96011 0361-0918CSSCDBCommun. stat., Simul. comput.388-10Copula Density Estimation by Total Variation Penalized LikelihoodLEMING QUYI QIANHUI XIEDepartment of Mathematics, Boise State UniversityBoise, IdahoUSA1 aut.Marketing Department, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern UniversityEvanston, IllinoisUSA2 aut.Division of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of IllinoisChicago, IllinoisUSA3 aut.1891-19082009ENGINIST16531B3540001713980002200000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.10-0012182PACommunications in statistics. Simulation and computationGBRCopulas are full measures of dependence among random variables. They are increasingly popular among academics and practitioners in financial econometrics for modeling comovements between markets, risk factors, and other relevant variables. A copula's hidden dependence structure that couples a joint distribution with its marginals makes a parametric copula non-trivial. An approach to bivariate copula density estimation is introduced that is based on a penalized likelihood with a total variation penalty term. Adaptive choice of the amount of regularization is based on approximate Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) type scores. Performance are evaluated through the Monte Carlo simulation.001A02I01Q001A02H02H001A02H01H001A02H02N2Estimation statistique01Statistical estimation01Estimación estadística01Estimation non paramétrique02Non parametric estimation02Estimación no paramétrica02Finance03Finance03Finanzas03Sciences économiques04Economic sciences04Ciencias económicas04Analyse numérique05Numerical analysis05Análisis numérico05Algèbre linéaire numérique06Numerical linear algebra06Algebra lineal numérica06Problème mal posé07Ill posed problem07Problema mal planteado07Distribution statistique08Statistical distribution08Distribución estadística08Théorie approximation09Approximation theory09Méthode stochastique10Stochastic method10Método estocástico10Estimation densité17Density estimation17Estimación densidad17Méthode pénalité18Penalty method18Método penalidad18Mesure aléatoire19Random measure19Medida aleatoria19Variable aléatoire20Random variable20Variable aléatoria20Modèle économétrique21Econometric model21Modelo econométrico21Econométrie22Econometrics22Econometría22Facteur risque23Risk factor23Factor riesgo23Loi conjointe24Joint distribution24Ley conjunta24Fonction répartition25Distribution function25Función distribución25Loi marginale26Marginal distribution26Ley marginal26Régularisation27Regularization27Regularización27Méthode régularisation28Regularization method28Método regularización28Estimation Bayes29Bayes estimation29Estimación Bayes29Méthode Monte Carlo30Monte Carlo method30Método Monte Carlo30Simulation numérique31Numerical simulation31Simulación numérica31Méthode statistique32Statistical method32Método estadístico32Application33Application33Aplicación3362G07INC7060G57INC7162P05INC7262P20INC7360E05INC7465F22INC7562E17INC7665C05INC77Sciences actuariellesINC78CopulasCD96CopulasCD96Critère informationCD97Information criterionCD97004OTOOTO Pol. soc. fam.98Les principes du revenu de solidarité active au regard des expériences étrangèresFamilles et pauvreté : mesurer, agir, comparerMARC (Céline)THIBAULT (Florence)PERIVIER (Hélène)limin.CES-MATISSE (université Paris Descartes et CNRS)FRA1 aut.Département des statistiques, des prévisions et des analysesFRA2 aut.OFCE - Centre de recherche en économie de Sciences PoFRA1 aut.49-66, 68 [19 p.]2009FREengINIST229183540001866108300400000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/410-0192353PAPolitiques sociales et familialesFRAThe principles of «revenu de solidarité active» in light of other countries' experienceLe revenu de solidarité active (RSA) constitue une réforme majeure de la protection sociale française. D'une part, il a remplacé les principaux minima sociaux versés aux personnes en âge de travailler, les mécanismes d'intéressement associés, et est venu s'imputer sur le calcul de la prime pour l'emploi. D'autre part, il constitue un complément de revenu substantiel pour les travailleurs pauvres, l'objectif étant à la fois de leur procurer un soutien financier et d'inciter à la reprise d'emploi. En s'appuyant sur une comparaison avec les dispositifs américain (EITC) et anglais (WTC et CTC) qui reposent depuis longtemps sur des prestations subordonnées à l'emploi, les auteures tentent de mieux comprendre les effets attendus du RSA. À l'aide du modèle de microsimulation MYRIADE de la Caisse nationale des allocations familiales, est présentée une évaluation ex ante de ce dispositif et de plusieurs scénarios alternatifs, en insistant sur le rôle joué par chaque composante du barème.52164XVI521Protection socialeNI01Social protectionNI01FranceNG02FranceNG02Travailleur pauvre03Working poor03Aide financière04Financial aid04Etats-UnisNG05United States Of AmericaNG05Royaume-UniNG06United KingdomNG06Comparaison internationale07Crossnational Comparisons07Simulation08Simulation08Revenu de solidarité activeCD96Solidarity minimum wageCD96130 0149-5992DICAD2Diabetes care332Cost-Effectiveness of the Diabetes Care Protocol, a Multifaceted Computerized Decision Support Diabetes Management Intervention That Reduces Cardiovascular RiskCLEVERINGA (Frits G. W.)WELSING (Paco M. J.)VAN DEN DONK (Maureen)GORTER (Kees J.)NIESSEN (Louis W.)RUTTEN (Guy E. H. M.)REDEKOP (William K.)Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical CenterUtrechtNLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.6 aut.Department of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus UniversityRotterdamNLD5 aut.7 aut.Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public HealthBaltimore, MarylandUSA5 aut.School of Medicine, Policy and Practice, University of East AngliaNorwichGBR5 aut.258-2632010ENGINIST180543540001893174200800000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.25 ref.10-0128121PADiabetes careUSAOBJECTIVE - The Diabetes Care Protocol (DCP), a multifaceted computerized decision support diabetes management intervention, reduces cardiovascular risk of type 2 diabetic patients. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of DCP from a Dutch health care perspective. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - A cluster randomized trial provided data of DCP versus usual care. The 1-year follow-up patient data were extrapolated using a modified Dutch microsimulation diabetes model, computing individual lifetime health-related costs, and health effects. Incremental costs and effectiveness (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) were estimated using multivariate generalized estimating equations to correct for practice-level clustering and confounding. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were created. Stroke costs were calculated separately. Subgroup analyses examined patients with and without cardiovascular disease (CVD+ or CVD-patients, respectively). RESULTS- Excluding stroke, DCP patients lived longer (0.14 life-years, P = NS), experienced more QALYs (0.037, P = NS), and incurred higher total costs (<euro sign>1,415, P = NS), resulting in an ICER of <euro sign>38,243 per QALY gained. The likelihood of cost-effectiveness given a willingness-to-pay threshold of <euro sign>20,000 per QALY gained is 30%. DCP had a more favorable effect on CVD+ patients (ICER = <euro sign>14,814) than for CVD- patients (ICER = <euro sign>121,285). Coronary heart disease costs were reduced (<euro sign>-587, P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS - DCP reduces cardiovascular risk, resulting in only a slight improvement in QALYs, lower CVD costs, but higher total costs, with a high cost-effectiveness ratio. Cost-effective care can be achieved by focusing on cardiovascular risk factors in type 2 diabetic patients with a history of CVD.760LXIDiabèteNM01Diabetes mellitusNM01DiabetesNM01Analyse coût efficacité02Cost efficiency analysis02Análisis costo eficacia02Economie santé03Health economy03Economía salud03Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire04Cardiovascular disease04Aparato circulatorio patología04Soin05Care05Cuidado05Informatisation06Computerization06Informatización06Décision08Decision08Decisión08Prise de décision09Decision making09Toma decision09Traitement11Treatment11Tratamiento11Conduite à tenir12Clinical management12Actitud médica12Facteur risque17Risk factor17Factor riesgo17Risque cardiovasculaire18Cardiovascular risk18Riesgo cardiovascular18Endocrinologie19Endocrinology19Endocrinología19Maladie métabolique20Metabolic diseases20Metabolismo patología20Nutrition21Nutrition21Nutrición21Homme25Human25Hombre25Endocrinopathie37Endocrinopathy37Endocrinopatía37081OTOOTO 1708-631010L<right single quotation mark>environnement familial des Canadiens âgés de 75 ans et plus à l<right single quotation mark>horizon 2030Vézina (Samuel)Légaré (Jacques)Busque (Marc-Antoine)Décarie (Yann)Keefe (Janice)Département de démographie, Université de MontréalCAN1 aut.Département de démographie, Université de MontréalCAN2 aut.Département de démographie, Université de MontréalCAN3 aut.Département de mathématiques, Université de SherbrookeCAN4 aut.Nova Scotia Center on Aging, Mount Saint Vincent UniversityCAN5 aut.p. 02009FREengEN_LIGNE3540006037287800030000© 2010 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved. Tous droits réservés © Faculté de droit, Université de Montréal, 20091610-0047303PAEnfances, familles, générations07CAN$$URL.http://id.erudit.org/iderudit/037518arWith the help of the results obtained from the LifePaths Microsimulation Model developed by Statistics Canada, we made estimates as to the situation of marriage and the changes in the proportion of individuals with no surviving children amongst future elderly people, based on gender and age, with location in Canada 2001 and 2031. Our projections allow us to see how changes in age, matrimonial situations and the number of individuals with no surviving children will affect the family environment of the elderly both as concerns the structure of their lives and their numbers. The results indicate that the anticipated retarding of male deaths will lessen the number of spouseless women aged 75 and over. The results also anticipate that the number of baby boomers reaching the age of 75, as from the year 2021, will more specifically increase the number of this age in whose family environment there will characteristically be no surviving children.À l<right single quotation mark>aide de résultats issus du modèle de microsimulation LifePaths, développé par Statistique Canada, nous estimons l<right single quotation mark>évolution de la situation matrimoniale et de la proportion d<right single quotation mark>individus sans enfant survivant des futures personnes âgées selon l<right single quotation mark>âge et le sexe pour le Canada en 2001 et 2031. Ces projections permettent de montrer comment l<right single quotation mark>évolution de la structure par âge, des situations matrimoniales et de la proportion de personnes sans enfant va transformer l<right single quotation mark>environnement familial des personnes âgées tant dans leur structure que dans leurs effectifs. Les résultats montrent que la baisse attendue du veuvage aura pour effet de diminuer la proportion de femmes de 75 ans et plus sans conjoint; par ailleurs, ils montrent que l<right single quotation mark>arrivée de baby-boomers à l<right single quotation mark>âge de 75 ans dès 2021 fera grimper plus particulièrement le nombre de personnes de cet âge dont l<right single quotation mark>environnement familial est caractérisé par l<right single quotation mark>absence d<right single quotation mark>enfant survivant.52133AVIII521Personne âgée01Elderly person01CanadaNG02CanadaNG02Projection03Projection03Mariage04Marriage04Age05Age05Enfant06Child06Veuvage07Widowhood07032 0027-8874J. Natl. Cancer Inst.10120Effect of Rising Chemotherapy Costs on the Cost Savings of Colorectal Cancer ScreeningLANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris)VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein)ZAUBER (Ann G.)HABBEMA (J. Dik F.)KUIPERS (Ernst J.)Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.4 aut.Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamNLD5 aut.Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamNLD5 aut.Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer CenterNew YorkUSA3 aut.1412-14222009ENGINIST33643540001701016700600000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.62 ref.09-0475262PAJournal of the National Cancer InstituteUSABackground Although colorectal cancer screening is cost-effective, it requires a considerable net investment by governments or insurance companies. If screening was cost saving, governments and insurance companies might be more inclined to invest in colorectal cancer screening programs. We examined whether colorectal cancer screening would become cost saving with the widespread use of the newer, more expensive chemotherapies. Methods We used the MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model to assess whether widespread use of new chemotherapies would affect the treatment savings of colorectal cancer screening in the general population. We considered three scenarios for chemotherapy use: the past, the present, and the near future. We assumed that survival improved and treatment costs for patients diagnosed with advanced stages of colorectal cancer increased over the scenarios. Screening strategies considered were annual guaiac fecal occult blood testing (FOBT), annual immunochemical FOBT, sigmoidoscopy every 5 years, colonoscopy every 10 years, and the combination of sigmoidoscopy every 5 years and annual guaiac FOBT. Analyses were conducted from the perspective of the health-care system for a cohort of 50-year-old individuals who were at average risk of colorectal cancer and were screened with 100% adherence from age 50 years to age 80 years and followed up until death. Results Compared with no screening, the treatment savings from preventing advanced colorectal cancer and colorectal cancer deaths by screening more than doubled with the widespread use of new chemotherapies. The lifetime average treatment savings were larger than the lifetime average screening costs for screening with Hemoccult II, immunochemical FOBT, sigmoidoscopy, and the combination of sigmoidoscopy and Hemoccult II (average savings vs costs per individual in the population: Hemoccult II, $1398 vs $859; immunochemical FOBT, $1756 vs $1565; sigmoidoscopy, $1706 vs $1575; sigmoidoscopy and Hemoccult II $1931 vs $1878). Colonoscopy did not become cost saving, but the total net costs of this strategy decreased from $1317 to $296 per individual in the population. Conclusions With the increase in chemotherapy costs for advanced colorectal cancer, most colorectal cancer screening strategies have become cost saving. As a consequence, screening is a desirable approach not only to reduce colorectal cancer incidence and mortality but also to control the costs of colorectal cancer treatment.002B04002B13B01Chimiothérapie01Chemotherapy01Quimioterapia01Coût03Costs03Coste03Cancer colorectalNM04Colorectal cancerNM04Cancer de colon y rectoNM04Economie santé05Health economy05Economía salud05Aspect économique06Economic aspect06Aspecto económico06Dépistage08Medical screening08Descubrimiento08Cancérologie09Cancerology09Cancerología09Anticancéreux11Antineoplastic agent11Anticanceroso11Etats-UnisNG12United StatesNG12Estados UnidosNG12Homme17Human17Hombre17TraitementTreatmentTratamientoAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNGPathologie de l'appareil digestif37Digestive diseases37Aparato digestivo patología37Pathologie du côlon38Colonic disease38Colón patología38Pathologie de l'intestin39Intestinal disease39Intestino patología39Tumeur maligneNM40Malignant tumorNM40Tumor malignoNM40CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie du rectum41Rectal disease41Recto patología41Santé publique42Public health42Salud pública42348 0885-6230Int. j. geriatr. psychiatry2410Economic evaluation of cholinesterase inhibitor therapy for dementia: comparison of Alzheimer's disease and Dementia with Lewy bodiesGUSTAVSSON (Anders)VAN DER PUTT (Rohan)JÖNSSON (Linus)MCSHANE (Rupert)I3 InnovusStockholmSWE1 aut.3 aut.Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire Mental Health NHS TrustOxfordGBR2 aut.4 aut.1072-10782009ENGINIST211883540001881077100500000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.09-0465222PAInternational journal of geriatric psychiatryGBRObjective To assess the cost effectiveness of cholinesterase inhibitor (ChEI) treatment in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB). Method We used 4-month open label follow-up data from routine memory clinic patients. There were 852 patients with AD and 112 with DLB. We applied three predictive models to estimate clinical and economic outcomes at five years, comparing AD and DLB patients with hypothetical untreated controls. Results The mean improvement in MMSE in 852 AD patients was 0.57 (SD 3.4) at 4 months, and in the subgroup with baseline MMSE of 10-20 (moderate) was 1.6 (SD 3.7). Overall, the 112 DLB patients improved by 1.4 (SD 3.7). DLB patients with an MMSE 10-20 improved by 3.1 (SD 4.5) points. These efficacy data were input into the SHTAC, microsimulation and Markov models and produced estimated costs per QALY gained (CQG) for all AD of £194,066, £67,904 and £123,935 respectively. In comparison, the CQGs for all DLB were £46,794, £2,706 and £35,922. For the moderate subgroups only the SHTAC and microsimulation models were applicable. These gave CQG estimates for moderate AD of £39,664 and cost saving respectively. For moderate DLB, both estimates were cost saving. Conclusion The cost per QALY gained of cholinesterase treatment of all patients with DLB (including those with MMSE outside the 10-20 range) is comparable to that of patients with moderate AD, and is probably cost saving.002B30A11002B02B02Economie santé01Health economy01Economía salud01Santé publique02Public health02Salud pública02Analyse coût03Cost analysis03Análisis costo03Anticholinestérasique04Anticholinesterase agent04Anticolinesterasa agente04Pharmacothérapie05Pharmacotherapy05Farmacoterapia05Démence d'Alzheimer06Alzheimer disease06Demencia Alzheimer06Etude comparative07Comparative study07Estudio comparativo07Démence à corps de LewyNM08Lewy body dementiaNM08Demencia cuerpos LewyNM08Analyse économique09Economic analysis09Análisis económico09Efficacité traitement10Treatment efficiency10Eficacia tratamiento10Etude longitudinale11Follow up study11Estudio longitudinal11Santé mentale12Mental health12Salud mental12Environnement social13Social environment13Contexto social13Royaume-UniNG14United KingdomNG14Reino UnidoNG14Personne âgée18Elderly18Anciano18TraitementTreatmentTratamientoEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGHommeHumanHombrePathologie de l'encéphale37Cerebral disorder37Encéfalo patología37Maladie dégénérative38Degenerative disease38Enfermedad degenerativa38Pathologie du système nerveux central39Central nervous system disease39Sistema nervosio central patología39Pathologie du système nerveux40Nervous system diseases40Sistema nervioso patología40341 0303-6898Scand. j. stat.364Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Multiplicative Models with Dependent DataDETTE (Holger)PARDO-FERNANDEZ (Juan Carlos)VAN KEILEGOM (Ingrid)Fakultät für Mathematik, Ruhr-Universität BochumDEU1 aut.Departamento de Estatística e IO, Universidade de VigoESP2 aut.Institut de Statistique, Université catholique de LouvainBEL3 aut.782-7992009ENGINIST168433540001703486001200000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.09-0458753PAScandinavian journal of statisticsGBRSeveral classical time series models can be written as a regression model between the components of a strictly stationary bivariate process. Some of those models, such as the ARCH models, share the property of proportionality of the regression function and the scale function, which is an interesting feature in econometric and financial models. In this article, we present a procedure to test for this feature in a non-parametric context. The test is based on the difference between two non-parametric estimators of the distribution of the regression error. Asymptotic results are proved and some simulations are shown in the paper in order to illustrate the finite sample properties of the procedure.001A02H02A001A02H02F001A02H02H001A02H02MDistribution statistique01Statistical distribution01Distribución estadística01Théorie approximation02Approximation theory02Estimation statistique03Statistical estimation03Estimación estadística03Test hypothèse04Hypothesis test04Test hipótesis04Test statistique05Statistical test05Test estadístico05Processus stochastique06Stochastic process06Proceso estocástico06Autocorrélation07Autocorrelation07Autocorrelación07Sciences économiques08Economic sciences08Ciencias económicas08Finance09Finance09Finanzas09Test ajustement17Goodness of fit test17Prueba ajuste17Modèle multiplicatif18Multiplicative model18Modelo multiplicativo18Série temporelle19Time series19Serie temporal19Modèle régression20Regression model20Modelo regresión20Régression statistique21Statistical regression21Regresión estadística21Processus stationnaire22Stationary process22Proceso estacionario22Modèle ARCH23ARCH model23Modelo ARCH23Fonction régression24Regression function24Función regresión24Modèle économétrique25Econometric model25Modelo econométrico25Econométrie26Econometrics26Econometría26Estimation non paramétrique27Non parametric estimation27Estimación no paramétrica27Méthode paramétrique28Parametric method28Método paramétrico28Fonction répartition29Distribution function29Función distribución29Estimation erreur30Error estimation30Estimación error30Simulation31Simulation31Simulación31Méthode statistique32Statistical method32Método estadístico32Application33Application33Aplicación3362E17INC7062G10INC7162M10INC7262JxxINC7360G10INC7462P20INC7562P05INC7660E05INC77Sciences actuariellesINC78Estimation paramétriqueCD96Parametric estimationCD96Echantillon finiCD97Finite sampleCD97334OTOOTO 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy375Environmental and economic effects of post-Kyoto carbon regimes : Results of simulations with the global model GINFORSLUTZ (Christian)MEYER (Bernd)Institute for Economic Structures Research (GWS)49080 OsnabrueckDEU1 aut.2 aut.University of OsnabrueckDEU2 aut.1758-17662009ENGINIST164173540001861415701600000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.09-0455180PAEnergy policyGBRUsing the extensive and disaggregated global GINFORS model, consequences of different possible post-Kyoto regimes on the German and European economy and other major economies in the medium run until 2020 are depicted. The approach is very extensive and detailed in comparison to already existing analyses: this holds for the number of explicitly modelled countries (50 and 2 regions) and 41 economic sectors, input-output tables, the bilateral trade flows, the detailed coverage of behavioural parameters, the coverage of energy balances and CO₂ emissions as well as for the number and precise economic-political design of simulation runs. Global emissions will double until 2030 compared to 1990 levels without the existence of a farreaching climate regime after 2012. A unilateral commitment of the EU would only be a &dquot;drop in the bucket&dquot;, which solely strengthens the credibility of the EU in international negotiations. A stabilisation of global emissions in 2020 compared to 2010, which is consistent with the 2° target of the EU can only be achieved, if all developed and at least the large emerging economies participate and if all possible existing market-ready reduction technologies are used.001D06A01A001D16C04A001D06A01C1230Politique énergétique01Energy policy01Política energética01Politique environnement02Environmental policy02Política medio ambiente02Lutte antipollution03Pollution control03Lucha anticontaminación03Emission polluant04Pollutant emission04Emisión contaminante04Dioxyde de carboneNKFX05Carbon dioxideNKFX05Carbono dióxidoNKFX05Taxation06Taxation06Tasación06Coopération internationale07International cooperation07Cooperación internacional07Variation spatiale08Spatial variation08Variación espacial08Scénario09Script09Argumento09Modèle économétrique10Econometric model10Modelo econométrico10Simulation11Simulation11Simulación11Développement économique12Economic development12Desarrollo económico12Demande énergie13Energy demand13Demanda energía13Impact environnement14Environment impact14Impacto medio ambiente14Impact économique15Economic impact15Impacto económico15Economie énergie16Energy economy16Economía energía16Union européenne17European Union17Unión Europea17Etats-UnisNG18United StatesNG18Estados UnidosNG18MondeNG19WorldNG19MundoNG19Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG327 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2097Behavioral Microsimulation Formulation for Analysis and Design of Off-Hour Delivery Policies in Urban AreasFreight Systems 2009SILAS (Michael A.)HOLGUIN-VERAS (José)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, JEC 4033, 110 8th StreetTroy, NY 12180-3590USA1 aut.2 aut.43-502009ENGINIST10459B3540001719063900600000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.16 ref.09-0451417PATransportation research recordUSAThis paper is aimed at gaining a better understanding of how to increase participation in off-hour deliveries by using behavioral microsimulation (BMS) of carrier-receiver interactions. BMS is used to study the effectiveness of policies such as time-of-day pricing and financial incentives to receivers in exchange for their acceptance of off-hour deliveries. The main components of this BMS are the simulations of receiver and carrier behaviors. The simulation of receiver behavior uses a discrete choice model to estimate receivers' decisions to accept or reject off-hour deliveries. The simulation of carriers' behaviors uses receivers' decisions as an input for deciding whether to make off-hour deliveries along with a computation of the associated delivery costs. The analyses done revealed several key results: (a) tax deductions given to receivers in exchange for accepting off-hour deliveries and financial rewards to carriers making off-hour deliveries would increase participation in off-hour deliveries, (b) time-of-day toll surcharges have no major impact on increasing off-hour deliveries, (c) carriers located close to their urban customers are more likely to participate in off-hour deliveries because they can easily start to accrue the benefits from off-hour delivery operations, and (d) increased enforcement of parking fines for double-parking during regular hours could increase the number of carriers participating in off-hour deliveries.001D15ATransport marchandise01Freight transportation01Transporte mercadería01Modèle simulation02Simulation model02Modelo simulación02Zone urbaine03Urban area03Zona urbana03Comportement04Behavior04Conducta04Livraison05Delivery (good)05Entrega05Formulation06Formulation06Formulación06Expérimentation07Experimentation07Experimentación07Simulation numérique08Numerical simulation08Simulación numérica08Etude impact09Impact study09Estudio impacto09Structure marché10Market structure10Estructura mercado10Politique11Policy11Política11327PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2096Using Simulation to Plan Capacity Models by Lane for Two- and Three-Lane RoundaboutsTraffic Safety: Roundabouts, Trucks, Older Drivers, and Traffic Law Enforcement 2009BARED (Joe G.)MOHASEL AFSHAR (Abbas)FHWA, Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center, 6300 George-town PikeMcLean, VA 22101USA1 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, 1173 Glenn L. Martin HallCollege Park, MD 20742USA2 aut.8-152009ENGINIST10459B3540001725874100200000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.13 ref.09-0451381PATransportation research recordUSARecently, capacity models have been developed for single- and double-lane roundabouts by using U.S. data from NCHRP Report 572. The model for double-lane capacity was provided primarily for critical lane (usually right-lane) capacity as a function of total circulating volume. None of the existing international capacity models separate circulating volumes by lane. This study proposes planning capacity models for two-lane and three-lane roundabouts by separate entry-lane and separate circulatory-lane traffic volumes. VISSIM microsimulation software was used first to compare with the new NCHRP models as well as with Australian (SIDRA) and German (Tanner-Wu) models. Given that predictions from VISSIM for overall capacity of one- and two-lane roundabouts are consistent with U.S. data from NCHRP Report 572, new planning capacity models were developed by using VISSIM for the left lane and right lane of double-lane roundabouts that are functions of separate circulatory-lane traffic volume. For three-lane roundabouts, planning capacity models were developed by separate entry lane (left, middle, and right lane) as functions of inner, middle, and outer circulatory-lane volumes. All variable coefficients are statistically significant, and model fits are strong.001D15C001D14O02295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Carrefour giratoire02Roundabout02Bifurcación giratoria02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Capacité04Capacity04Capacidad04Voie circulation05Traffic lane05Vía tráfico05Etats-UnisNG06United StatesNG06Estados UnidosNG06Outil logiciel07Software tool07Herramienta software07Etude comparative08Comparative study08Estudio comparativo08Scénario09Script09Argumento09Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG327PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2103Traffic Microsimulation Modeling to Study a Traffic Signal Incident Reduction FunctionSafety Data, Analysis and Evaluation 2009. Volume 2YOUNG (William)ARCHER (Jeffery)Department of Civil Engineering, Monash UniversityVictoria 3800AUS1 aut.Accident Research Centre, Monash UniversityVictoria 3800AUS2 aut.80-872009ENGINIST10459B3540001710618901000000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.18 ref.09-0451075PATransportation research recordUSAThis paper demonstrates the use of a discrete event traffic microsimulation model to study the safety impacts of the introduction of an incident reduction (IR) function into a vehicle-actuated traffic signal controller. The IR function is based on that used in signal controllers in Sweden. The IR function is designed to reduce the number of stop-or-go decisions by drivers when caught in the dilemma zone at the onset of the amber signal. A correctly adapted IR function was found to greatly enhance the safety performance of signalized intersections. The simulation experiment described in the paper is based on empirical data from a suburban vehicle-actuated signalized intersection. It was conducted specifically to investigate the effects of the standard IR function on three proximal safety indicators: time to collision, red light violations, and required braking rates. The simulation results demonstrate a significant improvement in the time to collision (22%), red light violations (6%), and required braking rate when the IR function was in operation and a small positive influence on traffic movement through the intersection. Importantly, this study has illustrated the potential for using traffic microsimulation modeling for traffic safety evaluation.001D15C001D14O05295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Feu signalisation02Traffic lights02Semáforo02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Réduction05Reduction05Reducción05Incident06Mishap06Incidente06Signalisation commandée par trafic07Traffic actuated signal control07Señalización regulada por tráfico07Etude impact08Impact study08Estudio impacto08Sécurité trafic09Traffic safety09Seguridad tráfico09Intersection10Intersection10Intersección10Collecte donnée11Data gathering11Recolección dato11Analyse donnée12Data analysis12Análisis datos12327PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2099Safety Evaluation of Truck Lane Restriction Strategies Using Microsimulation ModelingFreeway Operations; Regional Systems Management and Operations; Managed Lanes 2009EL-TANTAWY (Samah)DJAVADIAN (Shadi)ROORDA (Matthew J.)ABDULHAI (Baher)Department of Civil Engineering, 35 St. George Street, University of TorontoToronto, Ontario M5S 1A4CAN1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.123-1312009ENGINIST10459B3540001702063801400000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.23 ref.09-0451011PATransportation research recordUSAThe demand for goods and services in North America has increased dramatically over the past few decades. This demand increase resulted in an associated increase in truck traffic on North American highways, escalating congestion, operation, and safety concerns. This in turn has led to increasing interest in strategies to reduce interaction between trucks and cars, including truck restrictions and dedicated truck lanes. The purpose of this paper is to implement algorithms for evaluating safety measures for different scenarios of truck lane restrictions and dedicated truck lanes using microscopic traffic simulation. The measures of performance calculated in this study are lane changing, merging, and rear-end conflicts. These measures are analyzed for truck-restricted lanes and dedicated truck lanes on the Gardiner Expressway in downtown Toronto, Canada. Simulation scenarios are developed by varying lane strategies and truck percentage. Simulation results showed that implementation of a single truck-restricted lane makes little difference to most conflict measures. Restricting trucks from the leftmost two lanes results in more substantial reductions in lane changing conflicts, but causes some increased freeway merging conflicts involving trucks. Dedicating the leftmost lane only to trucks also reduces lane changing conflicts but increases lane merging conflicts. Because lane changing conflicts are far more frequent than merging conflicts, there appears to be a net safety benefit by either restricting trucks from the left two lanes or dedicating the left lane to trucks. Relationships between lane strategy and rear-end conflicts are weak. Truck lane strategies are most effective when truck percentage exceeds 15%.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Gestion trafic04Traffic management04Gestión tráfico04Trafic marchandise05Goods traffic05Tráfico mercadería05Amérique du NordNG06North AmericaNG06America del norteNG06Poids lourd07Heavy truck07Peso pesado07Sécurité trafic08Traffic safety08Seguridad tráfico08Voie réservée09Priority lane09Vía prioritaria09Autoroute10Freeway10Autopista10Etude cas11Case study11Estudio caso11Evaluation performance12Performance evaluation12Evaluación prestación12Conflit13Conflict13Conflicto13AmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG327PSIPSI 0277-9536SSMDEPSoc. sci. med. : (1982)697The design and validation of a spatial microsimulation model of obesogenic environments for children in Leeds, UK: SimObesityEDWARDS (Kimberley L.)CLARKE (Graham P.)Centre of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Room 8.49, Worsley Building, University of LeedsLeeds LS2 9JTGBR1 aut.2 aut.1127-11342009ENGINIST136893540001700574602200000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.09-0431516PASocial science & medicine : (1982)GBRObesogenic environments are a major explanation for the rapidly increasing prevalence in obesity. Investigating the relationship between obesity and obesogenic variables at the micro-level will increase our understanding about local differences in risk factors for obesity. SimObesity is a spatial microsimulation model designed to create micro-level estimates of obesogenic environment variables in the city of Leeds in the UK: consisting of a plethora of health, environment, and socio-economic variables. It combines individual micro-data from two national surveys with a coarse geography, with geographically finer scaled data from the 2001 UK Census, using a reweighting deterministic algorithm. This creates a synthetic population of individuals/households in Leeds with attributes from both the survey and census datasets. Logistic regression analyses identify suitable constraint variables to use. The model is validated using linear regression and equal variance t-tests. Height, weight, age, gender, and residential postcode data were collected on children aged 3-13 years in the Leeds metropolitan area, and obesity described as above the 98th centile for the British reference dataset. Geographically weighted regression is used to investigate the relationship between different obesogenic environments and childhood obesity. Validation shows that the small-area estimates were robust. The different obesogenic environments, as well as the parameter estimates from the corresponding local regression analyses, are mapped, all of which demonstrate non-stationary relationships. These results show that social capital and poverty are strongly associated with childhood obesity. This paper demonstrates a methodology to estimate health variables at the small-area level. The key to this technique is the choice of the model's input variables, which must be predictors for the output variables; this factor has not been stressed in other spatial microsimulation work. It also provides further evidence for the existence of obesogenic environments for children.002B30A11002B01002B22BObésité01Obesity01Obesidad01But02Goal02Fin02Validation test03Test validation03Validación prueba03Modèle mathématique05Mathematical model05Modelo matemático05Environnement06Environment06Medio ambiente06Enfant08Child08Niño08Royaume-UniNG09United KingdomNG09Reino UnidoNG09Simulation11Simulation11Simulación11Analyse spatiale12Spatial analysis12Análisis espacial12Modélisation17Modeling17Modelización17Santé publique18Public health18Salud pública18Médecine sociale25Social medicine25Medicina social25Etat nutritionnel27Nutritional status27Estado nutricional27HommeHumanHombreEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGTrouble de la nutrition37Nutrition disorder37Trastorno nutricíon37313OTOOTO International Differences in Longevity and Health and their Economic ConsequencesMICHAUD (P.C.)GOLDMAN (D.)LAKDAWALLA (D.)ZHENG (Y.)GAYLEY (A.)National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge. MA.USA2009-08ENGNBERCambridge35 p.tabl., fig.BDSP/IRDES8800dissem.09-0428927LMUSADifférences internationales en matière de longévité et d'état de santé et leurs conséquences économiquesIn 1975,50 year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than their European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy at that age has diverged substantially compared to Europe. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily the symptom of real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their European peers. In particular, we use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Europe. We find that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Europeans could save up to $1.1 trillion in discounted total health expenditures from 2004 to 2050002B30A11SantéHealthSaludPersonne âgéeElderlyAncianoDépenseExpenditureGastoIndicateurIndicatorIndicadorLongévitéLongevityLongevidadCoûtCostsCosteEtude comparativeComparative studyEstudio comparativoEnquêteSurveyEncuestaEtude cohorteCohort studyEstudio cohorteProjection perspectivePerspective projectionProyección perspectivaAnalyse économiqueEconomic analysisAnálisis económicoEtats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGHommeHumanHombreAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG313 Understanding the Economic Consequences of Shifting Trends in Population HealthMICHAUD (P.C.)GOLDMAN (D.)LAKDAWALLA (D.)ZHENG (Y.)GAYLEY (A.)National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge. MA.USA2009-08ENGNBERCambridge41 p.tabl., fig.BDSP/IRDES8800dissem.09-0428926LMUSAComprendre les conséquences économiques des évolutions de l'état de santé de la populationThe public economic burden of shifting trends in population health remains uncertain. Sustained increases in obesity, diabetes, and other diseases could reduce life expectancy - with a concomitant decrease in the public-sector's annuity burden - but these savings may be offset by worsening functional status, which increases health care spending, reduces labor supply, and increases public assistance. Using a microsimulation approach, we quantify the competing public-finance consequences of shifting trends in population health for medical care costs, labor supply, earnings, wealth, tax revenues, and government expenditures (including Social Security and income assistance). Together, the reduction in smoking and the rise in obesity have increased net public-sector liabilities by $430bn, or approximately 4% of the current debt burden. Larger effects are observed for specific public programs : annual spending is 10% higher in the Medicaid program, and 7% higher for Medicare002B30A11DépenseExpenditureGastoSantéHealthSaludPolitique sanitaireHealth policyPolítica sanitariaTabagismeTobacco smokingTabaquismoObésitéObesityObesidadMorbiditéMorbidityMorbilidadBudgetBudgetPresupuestoDiabèteNMDiabetes mellitusNMDiabetesNMHypertension artérielleHypertensionHipertensión arterialCoûtCostsCosteProjection perspectivePerspective projectionProyección perspectivaSimulationSimulationSimulaciónEtats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG313 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy373How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars-Part II: Forecasting effects of feebates based on energy-efficiencyDE HAAN (Peter)MUELLER (Michel G.)SCHOLZ (Roland W.)ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHNJ7328092 ZurichCHE1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.1083-10942009ENGINIST164173540001854579903200000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.09-0400047PAEnergy policyGBRIn this paper, we simulate the car market in order to forecast the effects of feebate systems based on an energy-labeling scheme using categories A to G. Very fuel-efficient (A) cars receive a cash incentive, highly inefficient (G) cars pay additional fees. Consumers have different price elasticities and behavioral options to react to feebates. They can switch to a smaller sized car, but as energy-efficiency varies widely within size segments, they can also stick to the preferred size class and choose a more efficient (smaller) engine. In addition, previously owned cars influence the next car to be chosen. We use an agent-based microsimulation approach particularly suited to predict environmental and market effects of feebates. Heteorogenous agents choose from a choice set drawn from a detailed fleet of new cars. Incentives of ?2000 for A-labeled cars induce an additional rated CO₂ emission decrease of new car registrations between 3.4% and 4.3%, with CO₂ abatement costs between ?6 and ?13 per ton, and otherwise little undesired market disturbance. The risk of rebound effects is estimated to be low. After adopting the frequencies of consumer segments to a given country, the model presented is applicable to all European car markets.001D15CAutomobile01Motor car01Automóvil01Modèle prévision02Forecast model02Modelo previsión02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Analyse comportementale04Behavioral analysis04Análisis conductual04Consommateur05Consumer05Consumidor05Politique06Policy06Política06Rendement énergétique07Energetic efficiency07Rendimiento energético07Fiscalité08Taxes08Fiscalización08Emission polluant09Pollutant emission09Emisión contaminante09Dioxyde de carboneNKFX10Carbon dioxideNKFX10Carbono dióxidoNKFX10Variation temporelle11Time variation11Variación temporal11Résultat12Result12Resultado12Etude comparative13Comparative study13Estudio comparativo13Etude marché14Market survey14Estudio mercado14292PSIPSI 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy373How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars-Part I: Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validationMUELLER (Michel G.)DE HAAN (Peter)ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHNJ 73.28092 ZurichCHE1 aut.2 aut.1072-10822009ENGINIST164173540001854579903100000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.09-0400044PAEnergy policyGBRThis article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated.001D15CAutomobile01Motor car01Automóvil01Modèle simulation02Simulation model02Modelo simulación02Analyse comportementale03Behavioral analysis03Análisis conductual03Consommateur04Consumer04Consumidor04Politique05Policy05Política05Rendement énergétique06Energetic efficiency06Rendimiento energético06Prise de décision07Decision making07Toma decision07Choix08Choice08Elección08Orienté agent09Agent oriented09Orientado agente09Résultat10Result10Resultado10292PSIPSI 1170-7690PharmacoEconomics : (Auckl. )277Cost Effectiveness of Fondaparinux in Non-ST-Elevation Acute Coronary SyndromeLATOUR-PEREZ (Jaime)DE-MIGUEL-BALSA (Eva)Intensive Care and Coronary Unit, Hospital General Universitario de ElcheElcheESP1 aut.2 aut.585-5952009ENGINIST261243540001710767400600000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.49 ref.09-0398823PAPharmacoEconomics : (Auckland)NZLBackground: Fondaparinux has been shown to reduce the risk of major bleeding and 30-day mortality compared with enoxaparin, in patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). However, its cost effectiveness is not well known. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness and economic attractiveness of fondaparinux relative to enoxaparin in patients with NSTE-ACS treated with triple antiplatelet therapy and early (non-urgent) invasive strategy. Methods: The decision model compares two alternative strategies: subcutaneous (SC) enoxaparin (1 mg/kg 12 hourly) versus SC fondaparinux (2.5 mg/day) in NSTE-ACS patients pre-treated with triple antiplatelet therapy and early revascularization. Cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses were performed from a healthcare perspective, based on a Markov model with a time horizon of the patient lifespan. Univariate sensitivity analysis and probabilistic (Monte Carlo) microsimulation analysis were performed. Results: In the base-case analysis (65 years, Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction [TIMI] score 4), the use of fondaparinux was associated with a significant reduction in major bleeding, a slight reduction in adverse cardiac events, and minor improvements in survival and QALYs, together with a small reduction in costs. The dominance of fondaparinux over enoxaparin remained unchanged in the univariate sensitivity analyses. According to Monte Carlo simulation, fondaparinux was cost saving in 99.9% of cases. Conclusion: Compared with enoxaparin, the use of fondaparinux in patients with NSTE-ACS managed with an early invasive strategy appears to be cost effective, even in patients with a low risk of bleeding.002B02G002B12A002B30A11Economie santé01Health economy01Economía salud01Analyse coût efficacité02Cost efficiency analysis02Análisis costo eficacia02Fondaparinux sodiqueNKFR03Fondaparinux sodiumNKFR03Fondaparinux de sodioNKFR03Coagulation Factor XaFE04Coagulation Factor XaFE04Coagulation Factor XaFE04Inhibiteur enzyme05Enzyme inhibitor05Inhibidor enzima05Antithrombotique06Antithrombotic agent06antitrombōtico06Susdécalage ST07ST elevation07ST elevación(ECG)07Santé publique08Public health08Salud pública08Etude comparative09Comparative study09Estudio comparativo09Efficacité traitement10Treatment efficiency10Eficacia tratamiento10Enoxaparine sodiqueNKFR11Enoxaparin sodiumNKFR11Enoxaparina de sodioNKFR11Analyse statistique12Statistical analysis12Análisis estadístico12Cardiopathie coronaire13Coronary heart disease13Cardiopatía coronaria13Médicament14Drug14Medicamento14Anticoagulant23Anticoagulant23Anticoagulante23Syndrome coronaire aiguCD96Acute coronary syndromeCD96Síndrome coronario agudoCD96Serine endopeptidasesFESerine endopeptidasesFESerine endopeptidasesFEPeptidasesFEPeptidasesFEPeptidasesFEHydrolasesFEHydrolasesFEHydrolasesFEEnzymeFEEnzymeFEEnzimaFEPentaoside37Pentasaccharide37Pentaholósido37Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire38Cardiovascular disease38Aparato circulatorio patología38Pathologie du myocarde40Myocardial disease40Miocardio patología40Héparine bas poids moléculaireFR41Low molecular weight heparinFR41Heparina bajo peso molecularFR41Inhibiteur du facteur Xa de coagulationINC86292 0027-8874J. Natl. Cancer Inst.10115Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Human Papillomavirus Vaccination in the NetherlandsDE KOK (Inge M. C. M.)VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein)HABBEMA (J. Dik F.)Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical CenterRotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.1083-10922009ENGINIST33643540001875273400500000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.45 ref.09-0376787PAJournal of the National Cancer InstituteUSABackground In the Netherlands, low cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates might limit the cost-effectiveness of vaccination against the human papillomavirus (HPV). We examined the effect on cervical cancer incidence and mortality of adding HPV vaccination to the current Dutch cervical cancer screening situation and calculated the cost-effectiveness. Methods Costs and effects were estimated under favorable assumptions (ie, that HPV vaccination provides lifelong protection against 70% of all cervical cancers, has no side effects, and is administered to all women regardless of their risk of cervical cancer) by using the microsimulation screening analysis (MISCAN) model. The impact of changes in the price of vaccination, number of booster vaccinations, vaccination attendance rate, vaccination efficacy, cervical cancer incidence level, and quality-of-life assumptions was investigated in sensitivity analyses. Results Using the current price of ?118 per vaccine dose and with discounting of costs and effects at an annual rate of 3%, adding HPV vaccination to the current Dutch screening situation had a cost-effectiveness ratio of ?53500 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. The threshold price per vaccine dose at which the cost-effectiveness of vaccination would correspond to an acceptability threshold of ?20000 per QALY gained was ?40. With the addition of one or more (up to four) booster vaccinations during a lifetime, this threshold price decreased to ?33 for one booster (to ?16 for four boosters). With a doubling of the cervical cancer incidence level, the cost-effectiveness ratio was ?24400 per QALY gained and the maximum price per dose at threshold of ?20000 was ?97. All threshold prices were lower under less favorable effectiveness assumptions. Conclusions In the Netherlands, HPV vaccination is not cost-effective even under favorable assumptions. To become cost-effective, the vaccine price would have to be decreased considerably, depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine.002B04002B20C02Cancer du col de l'utérusNM01Cervical cancerNM01Cáncer de cuello del úteroNM01Analyse coût efficacité02Cost efficiency analysis02Análisis costo eficacia02Papillomavirus humainNW03Human papillomavirusNW03Human papillomavirusNW03Immunoprophylaxie04Immunoprophylaxis04Inmunoprofilaxia04Virose05Viral disease05Virosis05Vaccination06Vaccination06Vacunación06Prévention08Prevention08Prevención08Pays-BasNG09NetherlandsNG09HolandaNG09Cancérologie11Cancerology11Cancerología11Homme12Human12Hombre12PapillomavirusNWPapillomavirusNWPapillomavirusNWPapovaviridaeNWPapovaviridaeNWPapovaviridaeNWVirusNWVirusNWVirusNWInfectionInfectionInfecciónEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGTumeur maligneNM37Malignant tumorNM37Tumor malignoNM37CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie de l'appareil génital femelle38Female genital diseases38Aparato genital hembra patología38Pathologie du col de l'utérus39Uterine cervix diseases39Cuello útero patología39Santé publique40Public health40Salud pública40271 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2086Traffic Probe Data Processing for Full-Scale Deployment of Vehicle-Infrastructure IntegrationIntelligent Transportation Systems and Vehicle-Highway Automation 2008SHLADOVER (Steven E.)KUHN (Thomas M.)California PATH Program, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley, Richmond Field Station, 1357 South 46th Street, Building 452Richmond, CA 94804USA1 aut.2 aut.115-1232008ENGINIST10459B3540001883226201400000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.19 ref.09-0360985PATransportation research recordUSAVehicle-infrastructure integration (VII) is expected to provide greatly improved transportation planning and operations data by enabling many-and eventually all-road vehicles to function as traffic data probes. This means that VII probe data can be processed to produce useful information about the operation of an arterial roadway based on studies using a traffic microsimulation. Simulation provides a &dquot;truth model&dquot; representation of all vehicle trajectories, which serves as the basis for comparison with probe data sampling strategies under development in the VII program. Modifications to the probe data sampling strategies are suggested to enhance the quality of the data, especially its timeliness. Applications to weather condition detection, incident detection, and real-time adaptive traffic signal control, each with significantly different data requirements, were considered, and the ability of the probe sampling system to support these applications was evaluated. The least-demanding applications, such as weather condition detection, can be served well even at low market penetrations of VII-capable vehicles, but the most demanding applications (real-time adaptive signal control) appear to require the majority of vehicles to be equipped. Recommendations were defined for additional research needed to support the development and deployment of a viable VII traffic probe data system.001D15C001D15ATrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Système intégré02Integrated system02Sistema integrado02Véhicule routier03Road vehicle03Vehículo caminero03Infrastructure routière04Road infrastructure04Infraestructura de carreteras04Traitement donnée05Data processing05Tratamiento datos05Essai vraie grandeur06Full scale mockup test06Prueba sobre modelo en escala natural06Evaluation système07System evaluation07Evaluación sistema07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Agrégation09Aggregation09Agregación09Vitesse déplacement10Speed10Velocidad desplazamiento10257PSIPSI 1462-4605Int. j. agric. ressour. gov. ecol.82-4Building a static farm level spatial microsimulation model for rural development and agricultural policy analysis in Ireland : Rurality and sustainabilityHYNES (Stephen)MORRISSEY (Karyn)O'DONOGHUE (Cathal)CLARKE (Graham)Department of Economics, National University of Ireland, Galway, University RoadGalwayIRL1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.282-2992009ENGINIST275363540001708358600900000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/409-0343729PAInternational journal of agricultural resources, governance and ecologyCHE6 notesUsing statistical matching techniques, economists can now create attribute rich datasets by matching across the common variables in two or more datasets. The farm level spatial microsimulation model developed in this paper uses one of many combinational optimatisation techniques - simulated annealing - to match the Irish Census of Agriculture to the 2005 Irish National Farm Survey (NFS). Using the new spatially disaggregated farm population microdata this paper then briefly analyses the impact of future common agricultural policy (CAP) reform on the distribution of family farm income in rural Ireland.002A32C01B3Modèle spatial01Spatial model01Modelo espacial01Développement agricole02Agricultural development02Desarrollo agrícola02Politique agricole03Agricultural policy03Política agrícola03Recuit simulé04Simulated annealing04Recocido simulado04Recensement05Census05Censo05Agriculture06Agriculture06Agricultura06Echelon national07National scope07Escalón nacional07Enquête sur terrain08Field inquiry08Encuesta sobre terreno08Revenu de l'exploitation (agriculture)09Farm income09Renta de la explotación09IrlandeNG20IrelandNG20IrlandaNG20Enquête sur exploitations agricolesCD96Farm surveysCD96Encuestas sobre explotacionesCD96Exploitation agricole familialeCD97Family farmsCD97Explotación agrícola familiarCD97EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEurope OuestNG59Western EuropeNG59Europa del OesteNG59250OTOOTO 0016-5107GAENBQGastrointest. endosc.701Individualizing colonoscopy screening by sex and raceLANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris)VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein)ZAUBER (Ann G.)BOER (Rob)WILSCHUT (Janneke)WINAWER (Sidney J.)HABBEMA (J. Dik F.)Department of Public Health Erasmus MC, University Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.4 aut.5 aut.7 aut.Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer CenterNew YorkUSA3 aut.Department of Medicine, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer CenterNew YorkUSA6 aut.96-1082009ENGINIST165533540001872484001500000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.77 ref.09-0308207PAGastrointestinal endoscopyUSABackground: There is increasing discussion whether colorectal cancer (CRC) screening guidelines should be individualized by sex and race. Objectives: To determine individualized colonoscopic screening guidelines by sex and race for the average-risk population and to compare the cost-effectiveness of this approach with that of uniform guidelines for all. Design: We used the MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model to estimate life expectancy and lifetime CRC screening and treatment costs in a U.S. cohort of black and white men and women at average risk for CRC. We compared the base-case strategy of no screening and 3 competing colonoscopy strategies: (1) the currently recommended &dquot;uniform 10-yearly colonoscopy from age 50 years,&dquot; (2) a shorter interval &dquot;uniform 8-yearly colonoscopy from age 51 years,&dquot; and (3) &dquot;individualized screening according to sex and race.&dquot; Results: The base-case strategy of no screening was the least expensive, yet least effective. The uniform 10-yearly colonoscopy strategy was dominated. The uniform 8-yearly colonoscopy and individualized strategies both increased life expectancy by 0.0433 to 0.0435 years per individual, at a cost of $15,565 to $15,837 per life-year gained. In the individualized strategy, blacks began screening 6 years earlier, with a 1-year shorter interval compared with whites. The individualized policies were essentially the same for men and women, because the higher CRC risk in men was offset by their shorter life expectancy. The results were robust for changes in model assumptions. Conclusions: The improvements in costs and effects of individualizing CRC screening on a population level were only marginal. Individualized guidelines, however, could contribute to decreasing disparities between blacks and whites. The acceptability and feasibility of individualized guidelines, therefore, should be explored.002B13002B24E06Endoscopie07Endoscopy07Endoscopía07Colonoscopie08Colonoscopy08Colonoscopía08Dépistage09Medical screening09Descubrimiento09Sexe13Sex13Sexo13Race14Race14Raza14Gastroentérologie15Gastroenterology15Gastroenterología15Epidémiologie37Epidemiology37Epidemiología37222OTOOTO 1055-9965CEBPE4Cancer epidemiol. biomark. prev.183Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Mammography and Clinical Breast Examination Strategies: A Comparison with Current GuidelinesHSIEH AHERN (Charlotte)YU SHENDepartment of Medicine, Division of Biostatistics, The Dan L. Duncan Cancer Center at Baylor College of MedicineUSA1 aut.Department of Biostatistics, The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer CenterHouston, TexasUSA2 aut.718-7252009ENGINIST266373540001884081000600000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.53 ref.09-0304245PACancer epidemiology, biomarkers & preventionUSAPurpose: Breast cancer screening by mammography and clinical breast exam are commonly used for early tumor detection. Previous cost-effectiveness studies considered mammography alone or did not account for all relevant costs. In this study, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of screening schedules recommended by three major cancer organizations and compared them with alternative strategies. We considered costs of screening examinations, subsequent work-up, biopsy, and treatment interventions after diagnosis. Methods: We used a microsimulation model to generate women's life histories, and assessed screening and treatment effects on survival. Using statistical models, we accounted for age-specific incidence, preclinical disease duration, and age-specific sensitivity and specificity for each screening modality. The outcomes of interest were quality-adjusted life years (QALY) saved and total costs with a 3% annual discount rate. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were used to compare strategies. Sensitivity analyses were done by varying some of the assumptions. Results: Compared with guidelines from the National Cancer Institute and the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, alternative strategies were more efficient. Mammography and clinical breast exam in alternating years from ages 40 to 79 years was a cost-effective alternative compared with the guidelines, costing $35,500 per QALY saved compared with no screening. The American Cancer Society guideline was the most effective and the most expensive, costing over $680,000 for an added QALY compared with the above alternative. Conclusion: Screening strategies with lower costs and benefits comparable with those currently recommended should be considered for implementation in practice and for future guidelines.002B04Mammographie01Mammography01Mastografía01Analyse coût efficacité02Cost efficiency analysis02Análisis costo eficacia02Glande mammaire03Mammary gland03Glándula mamaria03Exploration clinique04Clinical investigation04Exploración clínica04Sein05Breast05Seno05Stratégie06Strategy06Estrategia06Etude comparative08Comparative study08Estudio comparativo08Recommandation09Recommendation09Recomendación09Cancérologie11Cancerology11Cancerología11Radiodiagnostic37Radiodiagnosis37Radiodiagnóstico37222OTOOTO 1746-449889Role of microsimulation in evaluating intelligent transportation systems applications in urban transportationUrban transport XII : urban transport and the environment in the 21st centuryKHAN (A. M.)ARMSTRONG (J.)MUNIR (A.)BREBBIA (C. A.)ed.DOLEZEL (V.)ed.Carleton UniversityOttawaCAN1 aut.Morrison Hershfield Limited & Carleton UniversityOttawaCAN2 aut.Morrison Hershfield LimitedBurlingtonCAN3 aut.723-7322006ENGWITSouthamptonWITBoston1-8456-4179-5INISTY 392753540001729420907000000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.7 ref.09-0264009PCATransactions on the built environmentGBRUSAGiven the complexity and novel aspects of ITS-based measures for transportation network improvements, traditional macroscopic travel analysis models are of limited utility for assessing project benefits and costs. To fully capture the operational-level impacts of such technologies, a microsimulation approach is required. This paper describes the use of microsimulation techniques for studying the relative effectiveness of alternatives that include ITS applications. To illustrate the methodology, a case study involving the transportation network in Ottawa, Canada is presented. The paper is divided into five parts. First, mobility issues and the need for innovative solutions are introduced. Second, the transportation network in Ottawa is described and potential initiatives for addressing traffic congestion are noted, including demand reduction, freeway capacity expansion, and selected ITS measures. Third, the microsimulation-based modelling methodology is defined which was used to test improvement scenarios. Results from the various micro-simulation runs are then presented in terms of selected measures-of-effectiveness. Finally, conclusions drawn from the case study are presented.001D15A001D15B001D15CTransport urbain01Urban transportation01Transporte urbano01Congrès international02International conference02Congreso internacional02Système intelligent03Intelligent system03Sistema inteligente03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Modèle microscopique05Microscopic model05Modelo microscópico05Gestion trafic06Traffic management06Gestión tráfico06CanadaNG07CanadaNG07CanadáNG07Scénario08Script08Argumento08Trafic routier09Road traffic09Tráfico carretera09Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG195PSIPSIInternational Conference on Urban Transport and the Environment12Prague CZE2006 1746-449889The accuracy of traffic microsimulation modellingUrban transport XII : urban transport and the environment in the 21st centuryO'CINNEIDE (D.)CONNELL (D.)BREBBIA (C. A.)ed.DOLEZEL (V.)ed.Traffic Research Unit, University College CorkIRL1 aut.2 aut.277-2852006ENGWITSouthamptonWITBoston1-8456-4179-5INISTY 392753540001729420902800000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.7 ref.09-0261129PCATransactions on the built environmentGBRUSAPrevious work at University College Cork into the use and evaluation of microsimulation models suggested they are generally suitable for the examination of alternative urban traffic management proposals but that there is little independent validation of the accuracy of microsimulation. In particular, there appeared to be difficulties in comparing the modelled and actual queue lengths. This paper describes a study into the evaluation and accuracy of urban traffic microsimulation models. This involved a review of the available information and the construction of four Pyramics microsimulation models for the road network adjacent to University College Cork. Recommendations are made on queue length validation and on improvements to microsimulation modelling.001D15A001D15BTransport urbain01Urban transportation01Transporte urbano01Congrès international02International conference02Congreso internacional02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Ecoulement trafic04Traffic flow04Flujo tráfico04Précision05Accuracy05Precisión05Modélisation06Modeling06Modelización06Congestion trafic07Traffic congestion07Congestión tráfico07Gestion trafic08Traffic management08Gestión tráfico08Modèle microscopique09Microscopic model09Modelo microscópico09195PSIPSIInternational Conference on Urban Transport and the Environment12Prague CZE2006 1746-449889Evaluation and further development of car following models in microscopic traffic simulationUrban transport XII : urban transport and the environment in the 21st centuryHIDAS (P.)BREBBIA (C. A.)ed.DOLEZEL (V.)ed.School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South WalesSydneyAUS1 aut.287-2962006ENGWITSouthamptonWITBoston1-8456-4179-5INISTY 392753540001729420902900000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.7 ref.09-0261121PCATransactions on the built environmentGBRUSAThis paper presents findings from a comparative evaluation of car-following behaviour in a number of microscopic traffic simulators. The paper describes the results of the calibration and validation of the car following model implemented in the ARTEMiS simulator developed by the author. The calibration and validation are based on a 'standard' car-following experiment (called the Boschtest) which used instrumented vehicles to record the speed and relative distance between follower and leader vehicles on a one-lane road, and which was previously used to evaluate a number of other state-of-the-art simulators, including AIMSUN, PARAMICS and VISSIM. The simulated car following behaviour was compared to the field data using a number of error tests. A comparison of the results showed that the ARTEMiS car following model produced the closest match to the observed data out of all the tested models. In the last section of the paper, a number of traffic situations are identified where most car following models fail to reproduce real-life driver behaviour, and solutions to overcome these weaknesses are recommended for further development of car following models in microsimulation.001D15A001D15CTransport urbain01Urban transportation01Transporte urbano01Congrès international02International conference02Congreso internacional02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Ecoulement trafic04Traffic flow04Flujo tráfico04Trafic routier05Road traffic05Tráfico carretera05Modèle microscopique06Microscopic model06Modelo microscópico06Suivi de véhiculeCD96Car followingCD96195PSIPSIInternational Conference on Urban Transport and the Environment12Prague CZE2006 0191-2615TRBMDYTransp. res., Part B : methodol.432An integrated model of vehicle transactions, activity scheduling and mode choiceModeling Household Activity Travel BehaviorROORDA (Matthew J.)CARRASCO (Juan A.)MILLER (Eric J.)TIMMERMANS (Harry J. P.)ed.HUNYI ZHANGed.Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George StreetToronto, Ontario, M5S 1A4CAN1 aut.3 aut.Departmento de Ingenieria Civil, Universidad de Concepcion, Casilla 160-CConcepciónCHL2 aut.Urban Planning Group, Department of Building and Architecture, Eindhoven University of Technology, P.O. Box 5135600 MB EindhovenNLD1 aut.Transportation Engineering Laboratory (HiTEL), Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University1-5-1 Kagamiyama, Higashi-Hiroshima 739-8529JPN2 aut.217-2292009ENGINIST12377B3540001863472600300000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.09-0259649PATransportation research. Part B : methodologicalGBRAn integrated model of vehicle transactions, activity scheduling and mode choice is estimated based on a retrospective vehicle transaction survey in the Toronto Area. First a conceptual framework is presented which links long run decisions of automobile transactions with short run decisions of activity participation, travel and mode choice. The concept of activity/travel stress is introduced to represent the difference between household activity/travel with the current vehicle fleet and that associated with alternative fleets due to purchase or disposal of a vehicle. The concept of stress is operationalized with a utility-based formulation in which two measures of activity/travel stress are simulated for each household, mode choice utility gained by making a vehicle transaction, and the change in number of conflicts experienced in the household over a limited number of vehicles. These measures are simulated with multiple replications of an activity-based microsimulation model of activity scheduling and mode choice that explicitly represents household interactions of vehicle allocation, ridesharing and drop-off/pick-up of household members. The empirical analysis indicates, for both stress measures, an asymmetry associated with vehicle transactions. Households increase their activity/travel stress far more by disposing of a vehicle, than they alleviate stress by purchasing a vehicle. A nested logit vehicle transaction model shows that both measures of stress are moderately significant influences on vehicle transactions.001D15A001D15CTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Ménage03Household03Familia03Prise de décision04Decision making04Toma decision04Activité05Activity05Actividad05Automobile06Motor car06Automóvil06Intégration07Integration07Integración07Propriétaire08Owner08Propietario08Ordonnancement09Scheduling09Reglamento09Choix modal10Modal choice10Elección modal10Hétérogénéité12Heterogeneity12Heterogeneidad12Analyse contrainte13Stress analysis13Análisis tensión13187PSIPSI 0191-2615TRBMDYTransp. res., Part B : methodol.431Assessing container operator efficiency with heterogeneous and time-varying production frontiersJIA YANXINYU SUNLIU (John J.)School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University, Hulbert 101Pullman, WA 99164USA1 aut.Faculty of Business Administration, Xi'an University of TechnologyCHN2 aut.Faculty of Business, Hong Kong Polytechnic UniversityHung Horn, KowloonHKG3 aut.172-1852009ENGINIST12377B3540001839517901200000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.09-0258016PATransportation research. Part B : methodologicalGBRWe build an empirical model under the stochastic frontier framework to assess production efficiencies of container operators from the world's major container ports in the years between 1997 and 2004. The empirical model measures efficiencies, efficiency changes, and time-persistence of efficiencies after controlling for the individual heterogeneity in technology and technical change. The model is estimated using a Bayesian approach via the Markov Chain Monte-Carlo simulation. We find that the mean efficiency level of the container operators is in the range of 70-90% of their full efficiencies, and the mean efficiency changed with time slightly. However, the percentage of highly efficient operators has increased since 1997. Common model misspecifications without controlling for the individual heterogeneity and technical change can alter the results dramatically.001D15E001D15BTrafic portuaire01Harbor traffic01Tráfico portuario01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Analyse stochastique03Stochastic analysis03Análisis estocástico03Modèle empirique04Empirical model04Modelo empírico04Efficacité05Efficiency05Eficacia05Production06Production06Producción06Estimation Bayes07Bayes estimation07Estimación Bayes07Modèle économétrique08Econometric model08Modelo econométrico08Analyse sensibilité09Sensitivity analysis09Análisis sensibilidad09187PSIPSI 1524-9050IEEE Trans. intell. transp. syst.94Using ITS to Improve the Capacity of Freeway Merging Sections by Transferring Freight VehiclesSARVI (Majid)KUWAHARA (Masao)Institute of Transport Studies, Department of Civil Engineering, Monash UniversityMelbourne, Vic. 3800AUS1 aut.Kuwahara Laboratory, Institute of Industrial Science, University of TokyoTokyo 153-8505JPN2 aut.580-5882008ENGINIST270613540001848925300200000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.37 ref.09-0256544PAIEEE Transactions on intelligent transportation systemsUSAThis paper investigates the effect of heavy commercial vehicles on traffic characteristics and operation of freeway merging sections. Freeways are designed to facilitate the flow of traffic, including passenger cars and trucks. The impact of these different vehicle types is not uniform, creating problems in freeway operations and safety, particularly in the vicinity of merging sections. There have been very few studies that are concerned with the traffic behavior and characteristics of heavy vehicles in these situations. Therefore, a three-year study was undertaken to investigate traffic behavior and operating characteristics during the merging process under congested traffic conditions. First extensive traffic data collection captured a wide range of traffic and geometric information using detectors, videotaping, and surveys at several interchanges. The macroscopic detector data were used to identify and quantify the impact of heavy commercial vehicles on the capacity of merging sections. Subsequently, the microscopic data were utilized to establish a model for the behavior of drivers at merging sections. Based on this behavioral model, a microsimulation program was developed to simulate the actual traffic conditions. This model was used to evaluate the capacity of a merging section for a given geometric design and traffic flow condition. In addition, this model was employed to develop a variety of intelligent transport system control strategies that are associated with heavy commercial vehicles with the goal of designing safer and less-congested freeway merging points. The implementation of the proposed control strategies showed significant improvement over the capacity of merging sections.001D15C001D02CAutomobile06Motor car06Automóvil06Sécurité07Safety07Seguridad07Base de données08Database08Base dato08Intelligence artificielle09Artificial intelligence09Inteligencia artificial09Système intelligent10Intelligent system10Sistema inteligente10Autoroute18Freeway18Autopista18Trafic routier19Road traffic19Tráfico carretera19Fret20Freight20Trafic dense21Heavy traffic21Tráfico denso21Véhicule utilitaire22Commercial vehicle22Vehículo utilitario22Ecoulement trafic23Traffic flow23Flujo tráfico23Camion24Lorry24Camión24Condition opératoire25Operating conditions25Condición operatoria25Congestion trafic26Traffic congestion26Congestión tráfico26Gestion trafic27Traffic management27Gestión tráfico27Modélisation28Modeling28Modelización28Modèle géométrique29Geometrical model29Modelo geométrico29Modèle comportement41Behavior model41Modelo comportamiento41187OTOOTO 0198-9715CEUSD5Comput., environ. urban syst.326A spatial microsimulation model with student agentsGeoComputation: Modeling with Spatial AgentsWU (B. M.)BIRKIN (M. H.)REES (P. H.)DRAGICEVIC (Suzana)ed.School of Geography, University of Leeds, Woodhouse LaneLeeds LS2 9JTGBR1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.Spatial Analysis and Modeling Laboratory, Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University DriveBurnaby, BC, V5A 1S6CAN1 aut.440-4532008ENGINIST201923540001845865400300000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.09-0247753PAComputers, environment and urban systemsGBRIn this paper, we present a dynamic simulation model which projects the future population of the city of Leeds as a basis for policy analysis and scenario planning. We argue that microsimulation modelling is not entirely effective in the representation of student populations. Alternative approaches using both spatial interaction models and student agents are presented and evaluated. The results from the agent-based model are found to be particularly encouraging. We suggest that agent-based modelling and microsimulation are powerful as complementary technologies for individual-based modelling.001D14C03001D14A06295Modélisation01Modeling01Modelización01Aménagement urbain02Urban planning02Planeamiento urbano02Simulation03Simulation03Simulación03Analyse spatiale04Spatial analysis04Análisis espacial04Politique05Policy05Política05Scénario06Script06Argumento06Migration07Migration07Migración07Interaction08Interaction08Interacción08Royaume-UniNG09United KingdomNG09Reino UnidoNG09Orienté agent10Agent oriented10Orientado agente10Application11Application11Aplicación11EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG182PSIPSI 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1501Identification of peer effects through social networksBRAMOULLE (Yann)DJEBBARI (Habiba)FORTIN (Bernard)CIRPÉE, Université Laval, Canada Department of Economics, Université LavalCAN1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.41-552009ENGINIST164603540001884721100400000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.09-0247112PAJournal of econometricsNLDWe provide new results regarding the identification of peer effects. We consider an extended version of the linear-in-means model where interactions are structured through a social network. We assume that correlated unobservables are either absent, or treated as network fixed effects. We provide easy-to-check necessary and sufficient conditions for identification. We show that endogenous and exogenous effects are generally identified under network interaction, although identification may fail for some particular structures. We use data from the Add Health survey to provide an empirical application of our results on the consumption of recreational services (e.g., participation in artistic, sports and social activities) by secondary school students. Monte Carlo simulations calibrated on this application provide an analysis of the effects of some crucial characteristics of a network (i.e., density, intransitivity) on the estimates of peer effects. Our approach generalizes a number of previous results due to Manski [Manski, C., 1993. Identification of endogenous social effects: The reflection problem. Review of Economic Studies 60 (3), 531-542], Moffitt [Moffitt, R., 2001. Policy interventions low-level equilibria, and social interactions. In: Durlauf, Steven, Young, Peyton (Eds.), Social Dynamics. MIT Press] and Lee [Lee, L.F., 2007. Identification and estimation of econometric models with group interactions, contextual factors and fixed effects. Journal of Econometrics 140 (2), 333-374].001A02H02N2001A02H02N4001A02H02N3001A02H02FBiométrie01Biometrics01Biometría01Science médicale02Medical science02Ciencia Medica02Distribution statistique03Statistical distribution03Distribución estadística03Théorie approximation04Approximation theory04Analyse numérique05Numerical analysis05Análisis numérico05Méthode stochastique06Stochastic method06Método estocástico06Modèle linéaire17Linear model17Modelo lineal17Interaction18Interaction18Interacción18Analyse corrélation19Correlation analysis19Análisis correlación19Condition nécessaire20Necessary condition20Condición necesaria20Condition nécessaire suffisante21Necessary and sufficient condition21Condición necesaria suficiente21Condition suffisante22Sufficient condition22Condición suficiente22Sondage statistique23Sample survey23Ecuesta estadística23Méthode Monte Carlo24Monte Carlo method24Método Monte Carlo24Simulation25Simulation25Simulación25Estimation densité26Density estimation26Estimación densidad26Article synthèse27Review27Artículo síntesis27Sciences économiques28Economic sciences28Ciencias económicas28Modèle économétrique29Econometric model29Modelo econométrico29Econométrie30Econometrics30Econometría30Méthode statistique31Statistical method31Método estadístico31Estimation statistique32Statistical estimation32Estimación estadística32Analyse donnée33Data analysis33Análisis datos33Donnée économique34Economic data34Dato económico3462P10INC7062E17INC7165C05INC7262P20INC73Effet fixeCD96Fixed effectCD96182OTOOTO 0008-543XCANCARCancer11511A Novel Hypothesis on the Sensitivity of the Fecal Occult Blood Test: Results of a Joint Analysis of 3 Randomized Controlled TrialsLANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris)VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein)BOER (Rob)ZAUBER (Ann)HABBEMA (J. Dik F.)Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center RotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.5 aut.Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer CenterNew York, New YorkUSA4 aut.2410-24192009ENGINIST27013540001861955200500000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.31 ref.09-0227646PACancerUSABACKGROUND: Estimates of the fecal occult blood test (FOBT) (Hemoccult II) sensitivity differed widely between screening trials and led to divergent conclusions on the effects of FOBT screening. We used microsimulation modeling to estimate a preclinical colorectal cancer (CRC) duration and sensitivity for unrehydrated FOBT from the data of 3 randomized controlled trials of Minnesota, Nottingham, and Funen. In addition to 2 usual hypotheses on the sensitivity of FOBT, we tested a novel hypothesis where sensitivity is linked to the stage of clinical diagnosis in the situation without screening. METHODS: We used the MIS-CAN-Colon microsimulation model to estimate sensitivity and duration, accounting for differences between the trials in demography, background incidence, and trial design. We tested 3 hypotheses for FOBT sensitivity: sensitivity is the same for all preclinical CRC stages, sensitivity increases with each stage, and sensitivity is higher for the stage in which the cancer would have been diagnosed in the absence of screening than for earlier stages. Goodness-of-fit was evaluated by comparing expected and observed rates of screen-detected and interval CRC. RESULTS: The hypothesis with a higher sensitivity in the stage of clinical diagnosis gave the best fit. Under this hypothesis, sensitivity of FOBT was 51% in the stage of clinical diagnosis and 19% in earlier stages. The average duration of preclinical CRC was estimated at 6.7 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis corroborated a long duration of preclinical CRC, with FOBT most sensitive in the stage of clinical diagnosis.002B04002B13B01Cancer colorectalNM01Colorectal cancerNM01Cancer de colon y rectoNM01Sensibilité02Sensitivity02Sensibilidad02Fèces03Feces03Heces03Sang05Blood05Sangre05Spécificité06Specificity06Especificidad06Modèle statistique08Statistical model08Modelo estadístico08Cancérologie09Cancerology09Cancerología09Dépistage11Medical screening11Descubrimiento11Homme12Human12Hombre12Essai randomisé contrôléCD97Randomized controlled trialCD97Ensayo aleatorio controladoCD97Pathologie de l'appareil digestif37Digestive diseases37Aparato digestivo patología37Pathologie du côlon38Colonic disease38Colón patología38Pathologie de l'intestin39Intestinal disease39Intestino patología39Tumeur maligneNM40Malignant tumorNM40Tumor malignoNM40CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie du rectum41Rectal disease41Recto patología41Santé publique42Public health42Salud pública42166 0027-8874J. Natl. Cancer Inst.1016Lead Time and Overdiagnosis in Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening : Importance of Methods and ContextDRAISMA (Gerrit)ETZIONI (Ruth)TSODIKOV (Alex)MARIOTTO (Angela)WEVER (Elisabeth)GULATI (Roman)FEUER (Eric)DE KONING (Harry)Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical CenterRotterdamNLD1 aut.5 aut.8 aut.Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research CenterSeattle, WAUSA2 aut.6 aut.Department of Biostatistics, University of MichiganAnn Arbor, MIUSA3 aut.Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer InstituteBethesda, MDUSA4 aut.7 aut.374-3832009ENGINIST33643540001848510300300000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.39 ref.09-0192957PAJournal of the National Cancer InstituteUSABackground The time by which prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening advances prostate cancer diagnosis, called the lead time, has been reported by several studies, but results have varied widely, with mean lead times ranging from 3 to 12 years. A quantity that is closely linked with the lead time is the overdiagnosis frequency, which is the fraction of screen-detected cancers that would not have been diagnosed in the absence of screening. Reported overdiagnosis estimates have also been variable, ranging from 25% to greater than 80% of screen-detected cancers. Methods We used three independently developed mathematical models of prostate cancer progression and detection that were calibrated to incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to estimate lead times and the fraction of overdiagnosed cancers due to PSA screening among US men aged 54-80 years in 1985-2000. Lead times were estimated by use of three definitions. We also compared US and earlier estimates from the Rotterdam section of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) that were calculated by use of a microsimulation screening analysis (MISCAN) model. Results The models yielded similar estimates for each definition of lead time, but estimates differed across definitions. Among screen-detected cancers that would have been diagnosed in the patients' lifetimes, the estimated mean lead time ranged from 5.4 to 6.9 years across models, and overdiagnosis ranged from 23% to 42% of all screen-detected cancers. The original MISCAN model fitted to ERSPC Rotterdam data predicted a mean lead time of 7.9 years and an overdiagnosis estimate of 66%; in the model that was calibrated to the US data, these were 6.9 years and 42%, respectively. Conclusion The precise definition and the population used to estimate lead time and overdiagnosis can be important drivers of study results and should be clearly specified.002B04002B14D02Marqueur tumoral01Tumoral marker01Marcador tumoral01Urologie02Urology02Urología02Antigène spécifique prostate03Prostate specific antigen03Antigeno específico prostata03Cancer de la prostateNM04Prostate cancerNM04Cáncer de la próstataNM04Dépistage05Medical screening05Descubrimiento05Méthode06Method06Método06Cancérologie08Cancerology08Cancerología08Etats-UnisNG09United StatesNG09Estados UnidosNG09Homme11Human11Hombre11SurdiagnosticCD97OverdiagnosisCD97SobrediagnósticoCD97Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNGTumeur maligneNM37Malignant tumorNM37Tumor malignoNM37CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie de la prostate38Prostate disease38Prostata patología38Pathologie de l'appareil génital mâle39Male genital diseases39Aparato genital macho patología39Pathologie de l'appareil urinaire40Urinary system disease40Aparato urinario patología40Santé publique41Public health41Salud pública41138 1093-9687Comput.-aided civil infrastruct. eng.238Evaluation of Information Applications of a Self-Organizing Distributed Traffic Information System for a Large-Scale Real-World Traffic NetworkXU YANGRECKER (Will)Institute of Transportation Studies, University of CaliforniaIrvine, CA 92697USA1 aut.Institute of Transportation Studies and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of CaliforniaIrvine, CA 92697USA2 aut.575-5952008ENGINIST211603540001852367100100000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.09-0178476PAComputer-aided civil and infrastructure engineeringUSA1 noteThis article presents an evaluation of the system performance of a proposed self-organizing, distributed traffic information system based on vehicle-to-vehicle information-sharing architecture. Using microsimulation, several information applications derived from this system are analyzed relative to the effectiveness and efficiency of the system to estimate traffic conditions along each individual path in the network, to identify possible incidents in the traffic network, and to provide rerouting strategies for vehicles to escape congested spots in the network. A subset of vehicles in the traffic network is equipped with specific intervehicle communication devices capable of autonomous traffic surveillance, peer-to-peer information sharing, and self-data processing. A self-organizing traffic information overlay on the existing vehicular roadway network assists their independent evaluation of route information, detection of traffic incidents, and dynamic rerouting in the network based both on historical information stored in an in-vehicle database and on real-time information disseminated through intervehicle communications. A path-based microsimulation model is developed for these information applications and the proposed distributed traffic information system is tested in a large-scale real-world network. Based on simulation study results, potential benefits both for travelers with such equipment as well as for the traffic system as a whole are demonstrated.001D15A001D15CTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Performance système02System performance02Eficacia sistema02Système information03Information system03Sistema información03Trafic routier04Road traffic04Tráfico carretera04Application05Application05Aplicación05Système réparti06Distributed system06Sistema repartido06Echelle grande07Large scale07Escala grande07Réseau transport08Transportation network08Red transporte08Modélisation09Modeling09Modelización09Modèle simulation10Simulation model10Modelo simulación10Autoorganisation11Self organization11Autoorganización11Evaluation système12System evaluation12Evaluación sistema12Routage13Routing13Enrutamiento13Durée trajet14Travel time14Duración trayecto14131PSIPSI 0022-5223JTCSAQJ. thorac. cardiovasc. surg.1374Patient outcome after aortic valve replacement with a mechanical or biological prosthesis : Weighing lifetime anticoagulant-related event risk against reoperation riskVAN GELDORP (Martijn W. A.)JAMIESON (W. R. Eric)KAPPETEIN (A. Pieter)JIAN YEFRADET (Guy J.)EIJKEMANS (Marinus J. C.)GRUNKEMEIER (Gary L.)BOGERS (Ad J. J. C.)TAKKENBERG (Johanna J. M.)Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Erasmus University Medical CenterRotterdamNLD1 aut.3 aut.8 aut.9 aut.University of British ColumbiaVancouverCAN2 aut.4 aut.5 aut.Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical CenterRotterdamNLD6 aut.Providence Health SystemPortland, OregonUSA7 aut.881-8862009ENGINIST97473540001961495801400000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.30 ref.09-0175019PAJournal of thoracic and cardiovascular surgeryUSAObjective: Although the results of aortic valve replacement with different valve prostheses are well documented in terms of survival, the risks of (valve-related) events are less well explored. Methods: We used a dataset of 3934 patients who underwent aortic valve replacement with either a bioprosthesis (73%) or a mechanical prosthesis (27%) between 1982 and 2003 to simulate the outcome of patients after aortic valve replacement with either valve type. With the use of microsimulation, we compared total age and gender-specific life expectancy, event-free life expectancy, reoperation-free life expectancy, lifetime risks of reoperation, and valve-related events for both valve types. Results: The total follow-up was 26,467 patient-years. The mean follow-up was 6.1 years in the biological arm and 8.5 years in the mechanical arm. The mean age at implantation was 70 and 58 years for biological and mechanical prostheses, respectively, and the percentage of concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting was 47% and 28%, respectively. For a 60-year-old man, simulated life expectancy in years for biological versus mechanical prostheses was 11.9 versus 12.2, event-free life expectancy was 9.8 versus 9.3, and reoperation-free life expectancy was 10.5 versus 11.9. Lifetime risk of reoperation was 25% versus 3%. Lifetime risk of bleeding was 12% versus 41%. Conclusion: Even for patients aged 60 years, event-free life expectancy is better with a bioprosthesis. Although the chance of reoperation is higher, the lifetime risk of bleeding is lower compared with a mechanical prosthesis. Comparing lifetime event risks between different types of valve prostheses provides more insight into patient outcome after aortic valve replacement and aids patient selection and counseling.002B11002B12002B27Homme09Human09Hombre09Malade10Patient10Enfermo10Evolution11Evolution11Evolución11Pronostic12Prognosis12Pronóstico12Valvule aortique13Aortic valve13Válvula aórtica13Chirurgie14Surgery14Cirugía14Valvule cardiaque15Heart valve15Válvula cardíaca15Biologie16Biology16Biología16Prothèse17Prosthesis17Prótesis17Durée vie18Lifetime18Tiempo vida18Anticoagulant19Anticoagulant19Anticoagulante19Facteur risque20Risk factor20Factor riesgo20Risque21Risk21Riesgo21Réintervention22Reoperation22Reintervención22Anesthésie23Anesthesia23Anestesia23Appareil circulatoire24Circulatory system24Aparato circulatorio24Cardiologie25Cardiology25Cardiología25Traitement78Treatment78Tratamiento78124OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2088The Less-Than-Perfect Driver : A Model of Collision-Inclusive Car-Following BehaviorTraffic Flow Theory and Characteristics 2008WUPING XINHOURDOS (John)MICHALOPOULOS (Panos)DAVIS (Gary)Research and Development Division, KLD Associates, Inc., Suite 8, 47 Mall DriveCommack, NY 11725USA1 aut.Minnesota Traffic Observatory, University of Minnesota, 500 Pillsbury Drive SoutheastMinneapolis, MN 55455USA2 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, 500 Pillsbury Drive SoutheastMinneapolis, MN 55455USA3 aut.4 aut.126-1372008ENGINIST10459B3540001869601401400000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.47 ref.09-0170972PATransportation research recordUSAUnlike traditional car-following models that preclude vehicle collisions, a proposed model aims to emulate less-than-perfect everyday driving while capturing both safe and unsafe driver behavior. Most important, a realistic perception-response process is incorporated into the model on the basis of developments from visual perception studies. Driver inattention is characterized by a driver-specific variable called the scanning interval. This variable, when coupled with the driver's visual perception-response process, results in variable reaction times that are dependent not only on each driver's individual characteristics but also on instantaneous traffic conditions such as speed and density. This allows closer emulation of real-life human driving and its interactions with surrounding vehicles. Both inter- and intradriver variations in reaction time are captured in a plausible and coherent manner; in earlier studies, reaction time either was presumed fixed or was of limited variability. Furthermore, parameters of this model have a direct physical and behavioral meaning; this implies that vehicle collisions, if any, can be analyzed for behavioral patterns rather than simply being treated as numerical artifacts. In all, 54 detailed and accurate vehicle trajectories extracted from 10 real-life crashes were used to test the model's capability of replicating freeway rear-end collisions. High-resolution crash-free trajectory data were used to validate the model against normal driving behavior. Test results indicate that the proposed model is able to replicate both normal and unsafe driving behavior that could lead to vehicle collisions. The feasibility of integrating the proposed model with existing microsimulators is discussed. The outcome of this work could facilitate studying crash mechanisms at a high-definition microscopic level and could enable safety-related system design improvements and evaluation through microsimulation software.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Ecoulement trafic02Traffic flow02Flujo tráfico02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Comportement04Behavior04Conducta04Collision05Collision05Colisión05Conducteur véhicule06Vehicle driver06Conductor vehículo06Essai07Test07Ensayo07Etalonnage08Calibration08Contraste08Validation09Validation09Validación09Statistique10Statistics10Estadística10Suivi de véhiculeCD96Car followingCD96124PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2088Evaluation of Corridor Traffic Management and Planning Strategies That Use Microsimulation : A Case StudyTraffic Flow Theory and Characteristics 2008LIU (Henry X.)EDDIN JABARI (Saif)Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, 500 Pillsbury Drive SoutheastMinneapolis, MN 55455USA1 aut.2 aut.26-352008ENGINIST10459B3540001869601400400000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.21 ref.09-0170968PATransportation research recordUSAThe California SR-41 corridor simulation project is presented as a case study of how to utilize microscopic traffic simulation for planning purposes. Two of the most important components of preparing simulation models for planning purposes are emphasized: origin-destination (O-D) matrix calibration and peak spreading for long-term testing (e.g., 20-year horizons) to overcome unrealistic network gridlock. With streamlining of the O-D calibration process, it is shown that the proposed model reproduces count and travel-time information collected from the field. Incorporating peak spreading as a result of congestion for long-term scenarios is also shown to yield performance improvements in the models and overcome network gridlock issues common to such applications.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Ecoulement trafic02Traffic flow02Flujo tráfico02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Gestion trafic04Traffic management04Gestión tráfico04Planification05Planning05Planificación05Stratégie06Strategy06Estrategia06Etude cas07Case study07Estudio caso07CalifornieNG08CaliforniaNG08CaliforniaNG08Corridor09Corridor09Corredor09Evaluation projet10Project evaluation10Evaluación proyecto10Etalonnage11Calibration11Contraste11Scénario12Script12Argumento12Essai13Test13Ensayo13Vitesse déplacement14Speed14Velocidad desplazamiento14Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG124PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2088Use of Microsimulation to Model Day-to-Day Variability of Intersection PerformanceTraffic Flow Theory and Characteristics 2008ABDY (Zeeshan R.)HELLINGA (Bruce R.)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue WestWaterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1CAN1 aut.2 aut.18-252008ENGINIST10459B3540001869601400300000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.12 ref.09-0170962PATransportation research recordUSAQuantifying intersection performance is often a key aspect of transportation engineering studies. These studies commonly use microsimulation tools to evaluate intersection performance for vehicle delay by averaging results from several simulation runs (each with a different pseudorandom number seed) for a set of traffic and control conditions. Previous research has showed that this approach may lead to a bias in the estimation of both the mean and the standard deviation of field delay. This paper examines the issue of explicitly modeling the day-to-day variability in intersection delay by using microsimulation modeling. The results show that the prevalent method of using multiple runs, each with the same traffic demands but with different pseudorandom number seeds, does not adequately capture the day-to-day variability observed in the field. Consequently, two alternative methods for modeling day-to-day variability of intersection performance are presented and examined.001D15C001D15B001D14O02295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Ecoulement trafic02Traffic flow02Flujo tráfico02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Evaluation performance04Performance evaluation04Evaluación prestación04Intersection05Intersection05Intersección05Variation d'un jour à l'autre06Day to day variation06Variación de una día al otro06Variabilité07Variability07Variabilidad07Etude comparative08Comparative study08Estudio comparativo08Recommandation09Recommendation09Recomendación09124PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2088Comparison of Simulation-Based and Model-Based Calibrations of Traffic-Flow Microsimulation ModelsTraffic Flow Theory and Characteristics 2008CIUFFO (Biagio)PUNZO (Vincenzo)TORRIERI (Vincenzo)Department of Transportation Engineering, Università di Napoli &dquot;Federico II,&dquot; Via Claudio 2180125 NapoliITA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.36-442008ENGINIST10459B3540001869601400500000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.20 ref.09-0170953PATransportation research recordUSAParameter calibration of traffic microsimulation models usually takes the form of a simulation-based optimization problem, that is, an optimization in which every objective function evaluation calls for a simulation. It is recognized that such a problem is computationally intractable. Running time grows exponentially both in the number of parameters and in the digits accuracy. In addition, considerable computing time is required by each objective function evaluation. This means that only heuristic techniques can be applied. Accordingly, results of the application of the OptQuest/Multistart algorithm to the calibration of AIMSUN microsimulation model parameters on a freeway network are presented. Furthermore, it is claimed that the search for an effective solution to the calibration problem cannot be exhausted by the choice of the most efficient optimization algorithm. The use of available information concerning the phenomenon could allow calibration performance to be enhanced, for example, by reducing dimensions of the domain of feasible solutions. It is argued that this goal could be achieved by using information from the stationary counterpart of microscopic traffic-flow models that depict the aggregate variables of traffic flows as a function of drivers' microscopic parameters. Because they have a closed analytical formulation, they are well suited for faster calibrations. Results show that values of parameters from stationary model-based calibrations are not far from the optimal ones. Thus the integration of the two approaches cannot be excluded but is worth investigating.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Ecoulement trafic02Traffic flow02Flujo tráfico02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Etude comparative04Comparative study04Estudio comparativo04Etalonnage05Calibration05Contraste05Fonction objectif06Objective function06Función objetivo06Méthodologie07Methodology07Metodología07Etude cas08Case study08Estudio caso08Scénario09Script09Argumento09Autoroute10Freeway10Autopista10124PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2088Microsimulation Calibration Using Speed-Flow RelationshipsTraffic Flow Theory and Characteristics 2008MENNENI (Sandeep)SUN (Carlos)VORTISCH (Peter)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Missouri, E2509 Lafferre HallColumbia, MO 65211USA1 aut.2 aut.Planung Transport Verkehr AG, Stumpfstrasse 176131 KarlsruheDEU3 aut.1-92008ENGINIST10459B3540001869601400100000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.20 ref.09-0170952PATransportation research recordUSAA microsimulation calibration methodology based on matching speed-flow graphs from field and simulation is presented. Evaluation and automation of matching speed-flow graphs are based on methods from pattern recognition. The methodology was applied to the US-101 freeway network in San Francisco, California, by using an evolutionary algorithm. The methodology is compared to traditional methods of calibration based on capacity and is shown to perform better. In addition, a small-scale test-network simulation model was developed to assist in calibration of large-scale simulation models. The performance of the test-network-based calibration is comparable to the US-101 simulation model.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Ecoulement trafic02Traffic flow02Flujo tráfico02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Vitesse déplacement04Speed04Velocidad desplazamiento04Etalonnage05Calibration05Contraste05CalifornieNG06CaliforniaNG06CaliforniaNG06Etude cas07Case study07Estudio caso07Fonction objectif08Objective function08Función objetivo08Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG124PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2083Derivation and Validation of New Simulation-Based Surrogate Safety MeasureSafety Data, Analysis, and ModelingOZBAY (Kaan)HONG YANGBARTIN (Bekir)MUDIGONDA (Sandeep)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rutgers University, 623 Bowser RoadPiscataway, NJ 08854USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.105-1132008ENGINIST10459B3540001869600601200000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.26 ref.09-0170949PATransportation research recordUSATraffic safety evaluation is one of the most important processes in analyzing transportation systems performance. Traditional methods like statistical models and before-after comparisons have many drawbacks, such as limited time periods, sample size problems, and reporting errors. The advancement of traffic conflict techniques combined with microsimulation offers a potentially innovative way for conducting safety assessment of traffic systems even before safety improvements are implemented. In this paper, simulation-based safety studies are reviewed, and a modified simulation-based surrogate safety measure and a new simulation-based surrogate safety measure that can capture the probability of collisions, as well as the severity of these potential collisions, are proposed. Conceptual and computational logic of the proposed surrogate safety indicators are described in detail. These surrogate safety indices are initially proposed for link-based analysis and should not be used for other purposes, such as intersection safety assessment, without further enhancements, and the use of these indices should be limited to the analysis of linear conflicts. In addition, these link-based indices are extended to be able to conduct aggregate networkwide safety assessments. The proposed indices are validated by means of a well-calibrated traffic simulation model of a section of the New Jersey Turnpike and real accident data from the same section. Preliminary results indicate a strong relationship between the proposed surrogate safety measures and real accident data. Further research is needed to investigate these new surrogate safety indices under different locations and traffic conditions.001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Sécurité trafic02Traffic safety02Seguridad tráfico02Analyse donnée03Data analysis03Análisis datos03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Dérivation05Bypass05Derivación05Validation06Validation06Validación06Mesure sécurité07Safety measure07Medida seguridad07Résultat08Result08Resultado08Méthode analytique09Analytical method09Método analítico09124PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2054Network Equilibrium with Activity-Based Microsimulation Models : The New York ExperienceActivity and Time Use Analysis 2008VOVSHA (Peter)DONNELLY (Robert)GUPTA (Surabhi)PB Americas, 1 Penn Plaza, 2nd FloorNew York, NY 10001USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.102-1092008ENGINIST10459B3540001845362201200000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.9 ref.09-0170201PATransportation research recordUSATravel demand models and network simulation models are distinct sets of procedures that are combined and interact within the framework of regional transportation modeling systems. Conventional four-step models have numerous limitations compared with more advanced activity-based microsimulation models, primarily with respect to internal consistency and detailed behavioral realism. However, two of the remaining advantages of four-step models are an established theory and an effective set of practical rules for achieving global network equilibrium so that travel time and cost simulated in the networks exactly correspond to the demand (trip tables) generated by the model. Nonetheless, this issue remains less explored and somewhat obscure for activity-based models. These models have a more complicated analytical structure compared with four-step models, which makes it difficult to derive equilibrium conditions in a rigorous theoretical manner. In addition, implementation of an activity-based model requires microsimulation of individual outcomes in the form of &dquot;crisp&dquot; discrete choices that is very different from the summation of fractional probabilities implemented in conventional models. This paper documents the results of testing various equilibrium strategies implemented with the New York City activity-based microsimulation regional travel demand model used by the New York Metropolitan Transportation Council. The purpose of the paper is twofold. First, it is intended to outline some fundamental research directions and extensions of the network equilibrium theory to cover activity-based microsimulation models in a more rigorous way. Second, it describes realistic levels of convergence that can be achieved with activity-based microsimulation models in practice and establishes practical rules and protocols for using these types of models for different projects and policies.001D15ATransports01Transportation01Transportes01Activité02Activity02Actividad02Analyse temporelle03Time analysis03Análisis temporal03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Equilibre05Equilibrium05Equilibrio05Réseau06Network06Red06Expérience07Experience07Experiencia07New YorkNG08New YorkNG08Nueva YorkNG08Etude théorique09Theoretical study09Estudio teórico09Application10Application10Aplicación10Statistique11Statistics11Estadística11Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG124PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2066Investigation of Attributes Determining Trip Chaining Behavior in Hybrid Microsimulation Urban Freight ModelsFreight Systems 2008QIAN WANGHOLGUIN-VERAS (José)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 110 Eighth StreetTroy, NY 12180USA1 aut.2 aut.1-82008ENGINIST10459B3540001846056900100000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.25 ref.09-0139563PATransportation research recordUSAA hybrid microsimulation modeling framework is proposed to construct goods-related vehicle tours that satisfy a known commodity flow origin-destination (O-D) matrix in an urban freight network. One distinct issue of urban freight systems-trip chaining behavior-is addressed in the modeling procedure. To shed light on the variables that play significant roles in affecting trip chaining behavior, two types of discrete choice models are estimated by using a data set from the integrative freight market simulation. These models generate probabilities that help choose destination locations and make the decision about whether to return to the base or not for each tour until the known commodity O-D matrix is satisfied. The proposed modeling framework was applied to an 84-node test network. Results show that the estimated trip length distribution is consistent with the underlying data set. Meanwhile, several attributes are found to have significant effects on the trip chaining behavior. The choice of the next destination is negatively affected by the distance from the current location to the potential destination and positively affected by the amount of cargo available for pickup and delivery. For the tour termination decision, the perceived utility of returning decreases with the increase of the return distance and increases with the accumulation of cargoes delivered.001D15CTransport marchandise01Freight transportation01Transporte mercadería01Transport routier02Road transportation02Transporte por carretera02Zone urbaine03Urban area03Zona urbana03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Méthodologie05Methodology05Metodología05Modèle désagrégé06Disaggregate demand model06Modelo desagregado06Choix07Choice07Elección07Résultat08Result08Resultado08Recommandation09Recommendation09Recomendación09Enchaînement des parcoursCD96Trip chainingCD96096PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2071Calibration Potential of Common Analytical and Microsimulation Roundabout Models : New England Case StudyHighway Capacity and Quality of Service 2008GAGNON (Conrad)SADEK (Adel W.)TOUCHETTE (Andrew)SMITH (Mark)School of Engineering, University of Vermont, 33 Colchester AvenueBurlington, VT 05405USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.Resource Systems Group, Inc., 60 Lake Street, Unit 1 EBurlington, VT 05401USA4 aut.77-862008ENGINIST10459B3540001850770801000000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.17 ref.09-0139535PATransportation research recordUSARecent interest in using modern roundabouts as an effective and safe method for intersection control in the United States stresses the need for accurate modeling tools. The objective of this paper is to assess the calibration potential of common analytical and microsimulation roundabout models to replicate operations at modern roundabouts. The models considered were aaSIDRA and RODEL (on the analytical side) and PARAMICS, SimTraffic, and VISSIM (on the microsimulation side). For this study, two modern roundabouts from New Hampshire were selected and videotaped during peak-hour conditions. The models' approach delay outputs were compared with the measured field delay from the videotapes. Model calibration parameters were systematically changed to assess their impact on the results with respect to field observations. Among the conclusions of the study are that current roundabout analysis models vary in regard to the calibration options, that calibration can have a significant impact on improving the models' results, and that calibration might be site specific.001D14O02001D15C295Carrefour giratoire01Roundabout01Bifurcación giratoria01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Méthode analytique04Analytical method04Método analítico04Etalonnage05Calibration05Contraste05Ecoulement trafic06Traffic flow06Flujo tráfico06Trafic routier07Road traffic07Tráfico carretera07Etude cas08Case study08Estudio caso08Intersection09Intersection09Intersección09New HampshireNG10New HampshireNG10New HampshireNG10Analyse donnée11Data analysis11Análisis datos11Contrôle qualité12Quality control12Control de calidad12Retard13Delay13Retraso13Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG096PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2071Implementing Actuated Signal-Controlled Intersection Capacity Analysis with PedestriansHighway Capacity and Quality of Service 2008DINGXIN CHENGTIAN (Zong Z.)HONGCHAO LIUDepartment of Civil Engineering, California State UniversityChico, CA 95929USA1 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Nevada, Reno, Mail Stop 258Reno, NV 89557-0152USA2 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, M.S. 1023, Texas Tech UniversityLubbock, TX 79409USA3 aut.125-1302008ENGINIST10459B3540001850770801500000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.09-0139510PATransportation research recordUSAFor an actuated signalized intersection, pedestrian calls are likely to affect the effective greens serving the vehicle movements, which affect the capacity and delay of the intersection. However, the current procedure in the Highway Capacity Manual 2000 (HCM) for analyzing actuated signalized intersections treats pedestrian crossing and timing statically, with either pedestrian calls at all signal cycles or no pedestrians at all. In reality, pedestrian arrivals are random events with some cycles having more pedestrians than others and other cycles having no pedestrian call at all. This paper demonstrates that the current procedure can lead to erroneous results in capacity and delay estimations. A model is introduced to overcome the shortcomings in the current procedure. The model takes into account the stochastic nature of pedestrian crossings and their effects. The model computes the probability of having pedestrian calls in a cycle and the corresponding capacities and delays for traffic movements. An implementation framework was developed to help practitioners conduct capacity analyses using the model. The model's results on a semiactuated signal-controlled intersection were comparable with the results from the Sim-Traffic microsimulation model. The effects of pedestrians on intersection capacity and delay were analyzed using the proposed model. Depending on the pedestrian volume and traffic conditions, the current HCM procedure could produce significant error, especially when the pedestrian volume is low, because it does not consider the stochastic nature of pedestrian arrivals.001D14O02001D14O05001D15C295Réseau routier01Road network01Red carretera01Intersection02Intersection02Intersección02Capacité03Capacity03Capacidad03Implémentation04Implementation04Implementación04Signalisation commandée par trafic05Traffic actuated signal control05Señalización regulada por tráfico05Trafic piéton06Pedestrian traffic06Tráfico peatones06Modélisation07Modeling07Modelización07Méthode analytique08Analytical method08Método analítico08Validation09Validation09Validación09Méthode calcul10Computing method10Método cálculo10096PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2080Split-Cycle Offset Optimization Technique and Coordinated Actuated Traffic Control Evaluated Through MicrosimulationTraffic Signal SystemsSTEVANOVIC (Aleksandar)MARTIN (Peter T.)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, 122 South Central Campus Drive, Room 104Salt Lake City, UT 84112-0561USA1 aut.2 aut.48-562008ENGINIST10459B3540001840966500600000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.26 ref.09-0137949PATransportation research recordUSATraffic signal timings can be optimized with offline or online tools. Offline tools, such as Synchro, take a macroscopic approach, whereas genetic algorithm (GA) formulations rely on a close interaction with traffic microsimulators. Online tools, such as the Split-Cycle Offset Optimization Technique (SCOOT), optimize in real time. Offline optimization tools have the luxury of time for repetitive computation, whereas SCOOT must work quickly as it responds to traffic detected on the streets. A comparison of the best offline tools and adaptive signal control is presented. The signal timing plans are first derived from the Synchro macroscopic optimization tool. A genetic algorithm (GA)-based formulation, which is essentially stochastic, resides in the VISSIM traffic simulation software; the GA component is known as VISGAOST. The latest version of SCOOT (MC3) is modeled with upstream and stop line detectors to enable both phase skipping and overlaps. The test bed is closely modeled on a 14-intersection network in Park City, Utah. The quality of signal timings is evaluated for two traffic demand types: expected (no significant variation) and unexpected (random variations). Results indicate that the offline GA formulation provides the optimal signal timing plans, robust enough to accommodate even randomly changing traffic demand. Similar in performance to Synchro, SCOOT delivers a creditable quality of optimization for an online optimization tool.001D14O05001D15C295Feu signalisation01Traffic lights01Semáforo01Optimisation02Optimization02Optimización02Régulation trafic03Traffic control03Regulación tráfico03Trafic routier04Road traffic04Tráfico carretera04Etude méthode05Method study05Estudio método05Evaluation système06System evaluation06Evaluación sistema06Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Etude expérimentale08Experimental study08Estudio experimental08Résultat expérimental09Experimental result09Resultado experimental09Retard10Delay10Retraso10UtahNG11UtahNG11UtahNG11Etude comparative12Comparative study12Estudio comparativo12Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG096PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2067Simulation Model for Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Transportation and the Economy in CanadaSocietal and Economic FactorsMAOH (Hanna)KANAROGLOU (Pavlos)WOUDSMA (Clarence)Center for Spatial Analysis, School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster UniversityHamilton, Ontario L8S 4K1CAN1 aut.2 aut.School of Planning, University of WaterlooWaterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1CAN3 aut.84-922008ENGINIST10459B3540001840773501000000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.20 ref.09-0135692PATransportation research recordUSAIt is widely argued that severe weather events and episodes of poor weather conditions (cold snaps and heat waves) have significant impact on regional economies and transportation systems. Several studies have focused on quantifying this relation from observed data. However, little has been done to simulate and assess the long-term impacts of climate change on regional transportation systems and economies. This is because of the lack of simulation models that are able to link changes in weather events to transportation system performance and interregional trade flows. This paper reports on the development of CLIMATE-C, a tool for simulation of the assessment of the impact of climate on transportation and the economy in Canada. Linkages between transportation and the economy are handled through a random utility-based multiregional input-output model (RUBMRIO), which predicts interregional trade flows by truck and rail among the 76 economic regions of Canada for 43 commodities. But the influence of weather on transportation is handled through speed adjustment factors that account for the reduction in travel speeds because of changes in the frequency of various weather events. Therefore, changes in the frequency of weather events translate into travel delays, which in turn influence trade flows between regions. Sensitivity analysis with the implemented model illustrated its ability to assess the impact of climate change on transportation and the economy in Canada.001D15A001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Modèle simulation02Simulation model02Modelo simulación02CanadaNG03CanadaNG03CanadáNG03Etude impact04Impact study04Estudio impacto04Changement climatique05Climate change05Cambio climático05Economie06Economy06Economía06Modèle économétrique07Econometric model07Modelo econométrico07Implémentation08Implementation08Implementación08Application09Application09Aplicación09Scénario10Script10Argumento10Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNGClimatologie dynamiqueDynamical climatologyClimatología dinámica096PSIPSI 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1482Simulation based selection of competing structural econometric modelsTONG LIDepartment of Economics, Vanderbilt University, VU Station B #351819Nashville, TN 37235-1819USA1 aut.114-1232009ENGINIST164603540001855002100200000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.09-0129957PAJournal of econometricsNLDThis paper proposes a formal model selection test for choosing between two competing structural econometric models. The procedure is based on a novel lack-of-fit criterion, namely, the simulated mean squared error of predictions (SMSEP), taking into account the complexity of structural econometric models. It is asymptotically valid for any fixed number of simulations, and allows for any estimator which has a √n asymptotic normality or is n^&agr;-consistent for a > 1/2. The test is bi-directional and applicable to non-nested models which are both possibly misspecified. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is derived. The proposed test is general, regardless of whether the optimization criteria for estimation of competing models are the same as the SMSEP criterion used for model selection. A Monte Carlo study demonstrates good power and size properties of the test. An empirical application using timber auction data from Oregon illustrates the usefulness and generality of the proposed testing procedure.001A02H02N2001A02H02G001A02H01H001A02H02MMéthode paramétrique01Parametric method01Método paramétrico01Statistique rang02Rank statistic02Estadística rango02Problème sélection03Selection problem03Problema selección03Sciences économiques04Economic sciences04Ciencias económicas04Processus stochastique05Stochastic process05Proceso estocástico05Théorie prédiction06Prediction theory06Théorie filtrage07Filtering theory07Distribution statistique08Statistical distribution08Distribución estadística08Comportement asymptotique09Asymptotic behavior09Comportamiento asintótico09Analyse numérique10Numerical analysis10Análisis numérico10Programmation mathématique11Mathematical programming11Programación matemática11Théorie approximation12Approximation theory12Méthode stochastique13Stochastic method13Método estocástico13Simulation17Simulation17Simulación17Modèle structure18Structural model18Modelo estructura18Modèle économétrique19Econometric model19Modelo econométrico19Econométrie20Econometrics20Econometría20Sélection modèle21Model selection21Selección modelo21Erreur moyenne22Mean error22Error medio22Estimation moyenne23Mean estimation23Estimación promedio23Estimation erreur24Error estimation24Estimación error24Prédiction25Prediction25Predicción25Normalité asymptotique26Asymptotic normality26Normalidad asintótica26Modèle emboîté27Nested model27Modelo encajado27Fonction répartition28Distribution function28Función distribución28Statistique test29Test statistic29Estadística test29Méthode statistique30Statistical method30Método estadístico30Optimisation31Optimization31Optimización31Méthode optimisation32Optimization method32Método optimización32Critère sélection33Selection criterion33Criterio selección33Méthode Monte Carlo34Monte Carlo method34Método Monte Carlo34Test statistique35Statistical test35Test estadístico35Estimation statistique36Statistical estimation36Estimación estadística36Analyse donnée37Data analysis37Análisis datos37Donnée économique38Economic data38Dato económico3862F07INC7062P20INC7160G25INC7262M20INC7362E20INC74Loi asymptotiqueINC7562F05INC7660E05INC7749XXINC7865KxxINC7962E17INC8065C05INC81Estimation paramétriqueINC82Méthode sélectionCD96Selection methodCD96EnchèreCD97AuctionCD97089OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2079Transportation Benefit-Cost Analysis : Lessons from Cal-B/CPricing, Economics, and FinanceWILLIGES (Chris)MAHDAVI (Mahmoud)System Metrics Group, Inc., 244 California Street, Suite 607San Francisco, CA 94111USA1 aut.California Department of Transportation, Office of Transportation Economics, Division of Transportation Planning, MS-32, 1120 N StreetSacramento, CA 95814USA2 aut.79-872008ENGINIST10459B3540001851564401100000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.14 ref.09-0128611PATransportation research recordUSAThe California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) assesses more than 100 transportation projects annually for its State Transportation Improvement Program, one of the largest such programs in the country. Caltrans relies on benefit-cost analysis as one of several performance factors, and evaluations must be completed in a few weeks. Caltrans developed a spreadsheet model, Cal-B/C, to provide a common benefit-cost framework and facilitate rapid project evaluation. The model is based on extensive theoretical reviews but is intended to keep the analysis simple. Cal-B/C incorporates rules of thumb to accommodate projects with little upfront evaluation. It can also use summary data from microsimulation and travel demand models. Although this design supports analysis with minimal data, Caltrans has found that the need for accurate and consistent data complicates project evaluation. This paper presents an example of how California applies benefit-cost analysis for objective project appraisals. The paper describes the motivation for Cal-B/C, its structure, applications, and continued evolution. Particular attention is paid to a recent evaluation of projects proposed for a $4.5 billion infrastructure bond measure. The paper also offers lessons for applied transportation performance analysis and proposes areas for further research.001D15BEconomie transport01Economy of transports01Economía transporte01Analyse avantage coût02Cost benefit analysis02Análisis coste beneficio02Retour expérience03Experience feedback03Retorno experiencia03CalifornieNG04CaliforniaNG04CaliforniaNG04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Coût global06Life cycle cost06Costo global06Exemple07Example07Ejemplo07Planification08Planning08Planificación08Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG089PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2082Joint Model of Choice of Residential Neighborhood and Bicycle Ownership : Accounting for Self-Selection and Unobserved HeterogeneityTravel Behavior Analysis 2008RAWOOF PINJARI (Abdul)ELURU (Naveen)BHAT (Chandra R.)PENDYALA (Ram M.)SPISSU (Erika)Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1761Austin, TX 78712-0278USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.5 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Arizona State University, Room ECG252Tempe, AZ 85287-5306USA4 aut.17-262008ENGINIST10459B3540001841355000300000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.30 ref.09-0113769PATransportation research recordUSAThis paper presents a joint model of residential neighborhood type choice and bicycle ownership. The objective is to isolate the true causal effects of neighborhood attributes on household bicycle ownership from a spurious association because of residential self-selection effects. The joint model accounts for residential self-selection because of both observed sociodemographic characteristics and unobserved preferences. In addition, the model allows differential residential self-selection effects across different sociodemographic segments. The model was estimated by using a sample of more than 5,000 households from the San Francisco, California, Bay Area. Furthermore, a policy simulation analysis was carried out to estimate the impacts of neighborhood characteristics and sociodemographics on bicycle ownership. The model results show a substantial presence of residential self-selection effects because of observed socio-demographics, such as the number of children, dwelling type, and house ownership. It is shown for the first time in the self-selection literature that ignoring such observed self-selection effects may not always lead to overestimation of the impact of neighborhood attributes on travel-related choices, such as bicycle ownership. In the current context, ignoring self-selection because of sociodemographic attributes resulted in an underestimation of the impact of neighborhood attributes on bicycle ownership. In the context of unobserved factors, no significant self-selection effects were found. However, it is recommended that such effects as well as the heterogeneity in such effects be tested for before it is concluded that there are no unobserved factors contributing to residential self-selection.001D15A001D15CTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Analyse comportementale02Behavioral analysis02Análisis conductual02Choix modal03Modal choice03Elección modal03Bicyclette04Bicycle04Bicicleta04Zone résidentielle05Residential zone05Zona residencial05Hétérogénéité06Heterogeneity06Heterogeneidad06Analyse donnée07Data analysis07Análisis datos07CalifornieNG08CaliforniaNG08CaliforniaNG08Modélisation09Modeling09Modelización09Modèle économétrique10Econometric model10Modelo econométrico10Simulation11Simulation11Simulación11Politique12Policy12Política12Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG082PSIPSI 0277-9536SSMDEPSoc. sci. med. : (1982)683&dquot;Conditional scholarships&dquot; for HIV/AIDS health workers : Educating and retaining the workforce to provide antiretroviral treatment in sub-Saharan AfricaBÄRNIGHAUSEN (Till)BLOOM (David E.)University of KwaZulu-Natal, Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, P.O. Box 198Mtubatuba, KwaZulu-Natal 3935ZAF1 aut.Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public HealthMAUSA2 aut.544-5512009ENGINIST136893540001842165202000000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.09-0111953PASocial science & medicine : (1982)GBRWithout large increases in the number of health workers to treat HIV/AIDS (HAHW) many countries in sub-Saharan Africa will be unable to achieve universal coverage with antiretroviral treatment (ART), leading to large numbers of avoidable deaths among people living with HIV/AIDS. We conduct a cost-benefit analysis of a health care education scholarship that is conditional on the recipient committing to work for several years after graduation delivering ART in sub-Saharan Africa. Such a scholarship could address two of the main reasons for the low numbers of health workers in sub-Saharan Africa: low education rates and high emigration rates. We use Markov Monte Carlo microsimulation to estimate the expected net present value (eNPV) of &dquot;conditional scholarships&dquot; in sub-Saharan Africa. The scholarships are highly eNPV-positive under a wide range of assumptions. Conditional scholarships for a HAHW team sufficient to provide ART for 500 patients have an eNPV of 1.24 million year-2000 US dollars, assuming that the scholarship recipients are in addition to the health workers who would have been educated without scholarships and that the scholarships reduce annual HAHW emigration probabilities from 15% to 5% for five years. The eNPV of the education effect of the scholarships is larger than eNPV of the migration effect. Policy makers should consider implementing &dquot;conditional scholarships&dquot; for HAHW, especially in countries where health worker education capacity is currently underutilized or can be rapidly expanded.002B30A11002B05C02D002B30A05SIDA01AIDS01SIDA01Agent santé02Health worker02Personnel sanitaire03Health staff03Personal sanitario03Pharmacothérapie04Pharmacotherapy04Farmacoterapia04Chimiothérapie05Chemotherapy05Quimioterapia05Antirétroviral06Antiretroviral agent06Antiretroviral06Afrique subsaharienneNG08Sub-Saharan AfricaNG08Africa subsaharianaNG08Ressources humaines09Human capital09Capital humano09Virus immunodéficience humaineNW11Human immunodeficiency virusNW11Human immunodeficiency virusNW11Antiviral12Antiviral12Antiviral12Analyse avantage coût17Cost benefit analysis17Análisis coste beneficio17Economie santé18Health economy18Economía salud18Modèle Markov19Markov model19Modelo Markov19Santé publique20Public health20Salud pública20Médecine sociale25Social medicine25Medicina social25Homme26Human26Hombre26ViroseViral diseaseVirosisInfectionInfectionInfecciónTraitementTreatmentTratamientoAfriqueNGAfricaNGAfricaNGLentivirusNWLentivirusNWLentivirusNWRetroviridaeNWRetroviridaeNWRetroviridaeNWVirusNWVirusNWVirusNWImmunodéficit37Immune deficiency37Inmunodeficiencia37Immunopathologie39Immunopathology39Inmunopatología39082OTOOTO 0370-629XRMLG, Rev. méd. Liège637-8RISQUE À LONG TERME DE SURVENUE D'UNE FRACTURE OSTÉOPOROTIQUE EN BELGIQUEHILIGSMANN (M.)BRUYERE (O.)REGINSTER (J. Y.)Département d'Economie, HEC-ULg, Université de LiègeBEL1 aut.Département de Santé Publique, d'Epidémiologie et d'Economie de la Santé, Faculté de Médecine, Université de LiègeBEL1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.480-4872008FREengINIST34643540001963156400500000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.46 ref.09-0104624PARMLG. Revue médicale de LiègeBELLONG-TERM RISK OF OSTEOPOROTIC FRACTURE IN BELGIUMCe travail a été réalisé afin d'estimer le risque à long terme de survenue de fractures ostéoporotiques pour des hommes et des femmes belges âgés de 50 et 60 ans. Les estimations ont été réalisées au moyen d'un modèle de microsimulation de Markov. Elles se basent sur l'incidence de fractures ainsi que sur l'espérance de vie. Plusieurs approches ont été utilisées pour modéliser l'espérance de vie. Nos analyses ont notamment intégré des réductions futures de la mortalité sur base de projections officielles ainsi que des modifications à long terme de l'incidence de fractures. Le risque de survenue de fractures pour la population ostéoporotique (dont le t-score de densité osseuse est inférieur à -2,5) a également été estimé. Les risques à long terme de survenue d'une fracture de hanche et d'une fracture ostéoporotique à un des trois sites de références (hanche, vertèbre, avant-bras) pour une femme de 60 ans sont respectivement de 20,5 % et de 39 %. Pour les hommes, ces risques s'élèvent à 7,9 % et 14,8 % tandis que pour les femmes ostéoporotiques, ils sont de 32,3 % et de 53,4 %. Les estimations obtenues confirment que l'ostéoporose est un problème de santé public majeur.002B01002B15AFracture01Fracture01Fractura01Risque02Risk02Riesgo02Long terme03Long term03Largo plazo03Ostéoporose04Osteoporosis04Osteoporosis04BelgiqueNG05BelgiumNG05BelgicaNG05Facteur risque06Risk factor06Factor riesgo06Espérance de vie08Life expectancy08Esperanza de vida08EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGPathologie du système ostéoarticulaire37Diseases of the osteoarticular system37Sistema osteoarticular patología37Traumatisme38Trauma38Traumatismo38075OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2077Tracking Size, Location, and Interactions of Businesses : Microsimulation of Firm Behavior in Austin, TexasCrosscutting Techniques for Planning and Analysis 2008KUMAR (Saurabh)KOCKELMAN (Kara M.)Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas, 6.9 E. Cockrell Jr. HallAustin, TX 78712-1076USA2 aut.113-1212008ENGINIST10459B3540001841356801500000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.46 ref.09-0103239PATransportation research recordUSAFirms are key drivers of urban growth along with households, yet data on businesses and commercial vehicle movements can be difficult to obtain. An understanding of firm behavior over time is critical in anticipating urban futures and addressing transportation, land use, and other concerns. Firm birth and death, migration, and location choice are defining events in a firm's life cycle, and a study of firm evolution requires estimating and applying models for each. Such an exercise is hindered primarily by a lack of quality microdata for businesses. A basic framework is proposed for modeling firm demographics by using a microsimulation approach. Year 2005 employment point data for the Austin, Texas, region and 7 years of aggregate data from the Statistics of U.S. Businesses have been used to simulate firm entry, exit, and evolution over time and space. A Markov process is used to anticipate firm growth and contraction, along with logit and Poisson models for firm location choice. Austin's commercial vehicle survey data are used to estimate commercial trip generation and distribution models, and applications of these are tied to forecasts of firm counts by location over time. Simulation results for both low- and high-growth scenarios suggest an increasing movement of firms toward central zones.001D15A001D14A06295Transports01Transportation01Transportes01Croissance urbaine02Urban growth02Crecimiento urbano02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Stratégie entreprise04Firm strategy04Estrategia empresa04TexasNG05TexasNG05TexasNG05Analyse donnée06Data analysis06Análisis datos06Modélisation07Modeling07Modelización07Problème localisation08Location problem08Problema localización08Modèle logit09Logit model09Modelo logit09Scénario10Script10Argumento10Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG075PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2077Microsimulation of Residential Land Development and Household Location Choices : Bidding for Land in Austin, TexasCrosscutting Techniques for Planning and Analysis 2008BIN ZHOUKOCKELMAN (Kara M.)Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of TexasAustin, TX 78712-1076USA1 aut.2 aut.106-1122008ENGINIST10459B3540001841356801400000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.36 ref.09-0103238PATransportation research recordUSAMicroeconomic theory and disaggregate spatial data are applied to pursue market equilibrium of single-family residential development. Mixed logit models and notions of price competition are used to simulate household location choices for three different household segments, assuming job sites of household members are known. Consistent with bid-rent theory, housing market equilibrium was reached in an iterative fashion. The spatial allocation of new households in the Austin, Texas, region illustrates the potential shape of things to come, with endogenously determined home prices and demographic distributions, based on job access. As expected, positive spatial autocorrelation in home prices and household distributions is observed.001D15B001D14A06295Demande transport01Transport demand01Demanda transporte01Transport urbain02Urban transportation02Transporte urbano02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Occupation sol04Land use04Ocupación terreno04Choix site05Site selection05Elección sitio05Logement habitation06Housing06Habitación06TexasNG07TexasNG07TexasNG07Enquête08Survey08Encuesta08Etude marché09Market survey09Estudio mercado09Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG075PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2076Modeling Daily Activity-Travel Tour Patterns Incorporating Activity Scheduling Decision RulesTravel Demand 2008YAGI (Sadayuki)MOHAMMADIAN (Abolfazl)Pacific Consultants International, 7-5, Sekido 1-chomeTama-shi, Tokyo 206-8550JPN1 aut.Department of Civil and Materials Engineering, University of Illinois at Chicago, 842 West Taylor StreetChicago, IL 60607-7023USA2 aut.123-1312008ENGINIST10459B3540001840737001400000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.19 ref.09-0102684PATransportation research recordUSAThe study develops a unique and practical model that can simulate daily patterns of activity travel for all household members including children and homemakers as well as workers and students. The activity-travel pattern model primarily adopts a tour-based structure in which tour is used as the base unit of modeling to preserve consistency in destination, mode, and time-of-day choices across trips. The unique feature of the model over other tour-based models in the literature is the incorporation of behavioral rules in the microsimulation process. These rules are derived from observed probabilities of activity scheduling behavior and are used to govern and modify generated activities by controlling for activity rescheduling, joint activity-tour generation, and household maintenance tour restriction. Data from a 4-day activity diary survey of nearly 4,000 individuals were used to develop models of weekday daily activity-travel patterns in the Jakarta, Indonesia, metropolitan area. Activity-travel patterns are defined by primary activity, primary tour type, and number and type of secondary tours. The model has a two-tier nested logit structure, with a choice of whether to go out of home to travel or stay at home all day in the upper tier and a choice of daily activity-travel pattern alternatives in the lower tier under the out-of-home choice. In addition to logsum from the time-of-day choice model, a variety of explanatory variables are included in the model. The effects of the explanatory variables are quite different from the effects of those models developed for the United States.001D15A001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Activité02Activity02Actividad02Voyage03Travel03Viaje03Ordonnancement04Scheduling04Reglamento04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Politique transport07Transportation policy07Política transporte07Scénario08Script08Argumento08Etude cas09Case study09Estudio caso09IndonésieNG10IndonesiaNG10IndonesiaNG10Zone urbaine11Urban area11Zona urbana11Décision12Decision12Decisión12AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG075PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2076Social Context of Activity Scheduling : Discrete-Continuous Model of Relationship Between &dquot;with Whom&dquot; and Episode Start Time and DurationTravel Demand 2008HABIB (Khandker M. N.)CARRASCO (Juan Antonio)MILLER (Eric J.)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, 3-133 Markin/CNRL Natural Resources Engineering FacilityEdmonton, Alberta T6G 2W2CAN1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Concepción, P.O. Box 160-CConcepciónCHL2 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George StreetToronto ON M5S 1A4CAN3 aut.81-872008ENGINIST10459B3540001840737000900000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.33 ref.09-0102671PATransportation research recordUSAActivity-based approaches to travel demand modeling are increasingly moving from theoretical to operational models. Agent-based microsimulation models are a promising approach as they explicitly conceive travel as an emergent phenomenon from people's activity characteristics and, more explicitly, from their activity-scheduling processes. Activity-scheduling processes are influenced by individuals' characteristics as well as by the people with whom they interact. Thus, the activity-scheduling process has an intrinsic social context. With social activities used as a case study, the objective of this paper is to investigate empirically the relationship between social context (measured by with whom respondents interacted) and two key aspects of activity scheduling: start time and duration. Econometric models of the combined decisions of with whom to participate and when to start or how much time to spend are estimated to investigate the correlations between &dquot;with whom&dquot; and start time and duration decisions. Data collected by a 7-day activity diary survey were used for model development. Findings suggest that social context has a relevant role in activity-scheduling processes. For example, with whom people socialize influences social activity-scheduling processes more than do travel time or distances to social travel. In addition to theoretical understanding of the questions investigated here, the models serve as an empirical support for agent-based microsimulation models that could incorporate the role of social networks in activity-scheduling attributes.001D15BPolitique transport01Transportation policy01Política transporte01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Ordonnancement03Scheduling03Reglamento03Aspect social04Social aspect04Aspecto social04Activité05Activity05Actividad05Comportement06Behavior06Conducta06Analyse donnée07Data analysis07Análisis datos07Etude méthode08Method study08Estudio método08075PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2076Joint Models of Home-Based Tour Mode and Destination Choices : Applications to a Developing CountryTravel Demand 2008YAGI (Sadayuki)MOHAMMADIAN (Abolfazl)Pacific Consultants International, 7-5, Sekido 1-chomeTama-shi, Tokyo 206-B550JPN1 aut.Department of Civil and Materials Engineering, University of Illinois at Chicago, 842 West Taylor StreetChicago, IL 60607-7023USA2 aut.29-402008ENGINIST10459B3540001840737000400000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.14 ref.09-0102668PATransportation research recordUSAThis paper presents joint models of mode and destination choices for home-based tours within an activity-based modeling framework for Jakarta, Indonesia, one of the largest metropolitan areas in Asia. Nested logit models were developed separately with four different activity types: work, school, maintenance, and discretionary. Mode and destination choices of all household members were specifically modeled, including children, who were usually overlooked in previous studies. Different models were estimated for school and work tours, usually combined in previous studies. Eight of the most commonly used combinations of travel modes in the region were considered: drive alone, shared ride, motorcycle, taxi, motorcycle taxi, transit with motorized access, transit with nonmotorized access, and nonmotorized transportation. Eleven representative tour destinations were sampled by a stratified importance sampling method designed on the basis of distance and size variables. Size variables were defined for different activity types to reflect the magnitude of attraction of destination zones for that activity. These variables include total number of jobs, students, or households in each zone. A wide variety of different types of variables contributed significantly to the models, including those related to trips, activities and tours, households, individuals, destination zones, and a composite variable of generalized travel time. The modeling results suggest that choice alternatives, structure of the model, and key variables differ from those in the developed world. This study is part of a larger effort to develop a comprehensive activity-based microsimulation modeling system for developing countries.001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Pays en développement03Developing countries03Países en desarrollo03Choix modal04Modal choice04Elección modal04Application05Application05Aplicación05IndonésieNG06IndonesiaNG06IndonesiaNG06Activité07Activity07Actividad07Modèle mathématique08Mathematical model08Modelo matemático08AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG075PSIPSI 0965-8564Transp. res., Part A Policy pract.427Distributional effects of road pricing : Assessment of nine scenarios for ParisBUREAU (Benjamin)GLACHANT (Matthieu)Ecole des Mines tie Paris, CERNA, 60 Boulevard Saint Michel75272 ParisFRA1 aut.2 aut.994-10072008ENGINIST12377A3540001977046100300000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.09-0093930PATransportation research. Part A, Policy and practiceGBRThe starting point of this paper is to consider that there is no general answer to the question of the equity of urban road pricing. We therefore simulate and compare the distributional effects on commuters of nine toll scenarios for Paris, assuming that utility is nonlinear in income. We show that the distributional pattern across income groups depends crucially on the level of traffic reduction induced by tolling. Stringent tolls are more favourable to low-income motorists. Equity effects also vary with toll design. Compared to a reference scenario which uniformly charges all motorists driving within Paris, an inbound cordon toll is detrimental to low-incomes. Conversely, granting a rebate to low CO₂ emission cars slightly improves their situation while an exemption for Paris residents is neutral. Surprisingly, it matters little for social equity whether toll revenues are allocated to all commuters or solely to public transport users.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Fixation prix02Pricing02Fijación precios02Réseau routier03Road network03Red carretera03Revenu économique04Income04Renta04Equité05Equity05Equidad05Evaluation06Evaluation06Evaluación06Scénario07Script07Argumento07ParisNG08ParisNG08ParísNG08Modélisation09Modeling09Modelización09Modèle simulation10Simulation model10Modelo simulación10Choix modal11Modal choice11Elección modal11Statistique descriptive12Descriptive statistics12Estadística descriptiva12Modèle économétrique13Econometric model13Modelo econométrico13Ile de FranceNGIle-de-FranceNGIle de FranceNGFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG068PSIPSI 0921-2973Landsc. ecol.2310Predicting land cover change and avian community responses in rapidly urbanizing environmentsSpecial Issue on Applying landscape ecological principles in urban environmentsHEPINSTALL (Jeffrey A.)ALBERTI (Marina)MARZLUFF (John M.)BREUSTE (Jürgen)ed.NIEMALÄ (Jari)ed.SNEP (Robbert P. H.)ed.Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, 180 Green StAthens, GA 30602-2152USA1 aut.Department of Urban Design and Planning and Urban Ecology Research Laboratory, University of Washington, P.O. Box 355740Seattle, WA 98195-5740USA2 aut.College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, P. O. Box 352100Seattle, WA 98195-2100USA3 aut.Urban and Landscape Ecology, Department of Geography and Geology, University of Salzburg, Hellbrunnerstrasse 345020, SalzburgAUT1 aut.Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, PO Box 6500014 HelsinkiFIN2 aut.alterra, Wageningen UR, P.O. Box 476700 AA WageningenNLD3 aut.International Association of Landscape Ecology (IALE)INTorg-cong.1257-12762008ENGINIST262793540001847079000900000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.2 p.3/409-0088645PCALandscape ecologyNLDWe used an integrated modeling approach to simulate future land cover and predict the effects of future urban development and land cover on avian diversity in the Central Puget Sound region of Washington State, USA. We parameterized and applied a land cover change model (LCCM) that used output from a microsimulation model of urban development, UrbanSim, and biophysical site and landscape characteristics to simulate land cover 28 years into the future. We used 1991, 1995, and 1999 Landsat TM-derived land cover data and three different spatial partitions of our study area to develop six different estimations of the LCCM. We validated model simulations with 2002 land cover. We combined UrbanSim land use outputs and LCCM simulations to predict changes in avian species richness. Results indicate that landscape composition and configuration were important in explaining land cover change as well as avian species response to landscape change. Over the next 28 years, urban land cover was predicted to increase at the expense of agriculture and deciduous and mixed lowland forests. Land cover changes were predicted to reduce the total number of avian species, with losses primarily in native forest specialists and gains in common synanthropic species such as the American Crow (Corvus brachyrhynchos). The integrated modeling framework we present has potential applications in urban and natural resource planning and management and in assessing of the effects of policies on land development, land cover, and avian biodiversity.002A14D01002A15DCouvert végétal01Plant cover01Cubierta vegetal01Occupation sol02Land use02Ocupación terreno02Communauté animale03Animal community03Comunidad animal03AvesNS04AvesNS04AvesNS04Environnement05Environment05Medio ambiente05Modélisation06Modeling06Modelización06Diversité biologique07Biodiversity07Diversidad biológica07Développement urbain08Urban development08Desarrollo urbano08Ecologie paysageINC87Puget SoundCD96Puget SoundCD96VertebrataNSVertebrataNSVertebrataNS061OTOOTOInternational Association of Landscape Ecology (IALE) World CongressEde NLD2007-07 0020-7136IJCNAWInt. j. cancer1245At what costs will screening with CT colonography be competitive? A cost-effectiveness approachLANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris)VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein)ZAUBER (Ann G.)BOER (Rob)WILSCHUT (Janneke)HABBEMA (J. Dik F.)Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.4 aut.5 aut.6 aut.Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer CenterNew York, NYUSA3 aut.1161-11682009ENGINIST130273540001851561001900000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.72 ref.09-0079184PAInternational journal of cancerUSAThe costs of computed tomographic colonography (CTC) are not yet established for screening use. In our study, we estimated the threshold costs for which CTC screening would be a cost-effective alternative to colonoscopy for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in the general population. We used the MISCAN-colon microsimulation model to estimate the costs and life-years gained of screening persons aged 50-80 years for 4 screening strategies: (i) optical colonoscopy; and CTC with referral to optical colonoscopy of (ii) any suspected polyp; (iii) a suspected polyp ≥6 mm and (iv) a suspected polyp >10 mm. For each of the 4 strategies, screen intervals of 5, 10, 15 and 20 years were considered. Subsequently, for each CTC strategy and interval, the threshold costs of CTC were calculated. We performed a sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of uncertain model parameters on the threshold costs. With equal costs ($662), optical colonoscopy dominated CTC screening. For CTC to gain similar life-years as colonoscopy screening every 10 years, it should be offered every 5 years with referral of polyps >6 mm. For this strategy to be as cost-effective as colonoscopy screening, the costs must not exceed $285 or 43% of colonoscopy costs (range in sensitivity analysis: 39-47%). With 25% higher adherence than colonoscopy, CTC threshold costs could be 71% of colonoscopy costs. Our estimate of 43% is considerably lower than previous estimates in literature, because previous studies only compared CTC screening to 10-yearly colonoscopy, where we compared to different intervals of colonoscopy screening.002B04002B13B01Cancer colorectalNM01Colorectal cancerNM01Cancer de colon y rectoNM01Coût02Costs02Coste02Economie santé03Health economy03Economía salud03Aspect économique05Economic aspect05Aspecto económico05Dépistage06Medical screening06Descubrimiento06Compétition08Competition08Competencia08Analyse coût efficacité09Cost efficiency analysis09Análisis costo eficacia09Simulation ordinateur11Computer simulation11Simulación computadora11Cancérologie12Cancerology12Cancerología12Homme17Human17Hombre17Coloscopie virtuelleCD96Virtual colonoscopyCD96Pathologie de l'appareil digestif37Digestive diseases37Aparato digestivo patología37Pathologie du côlon38Colonic disease38Colón patología38Pathologie de l'intestin39Intestinal disease39Intestino patología39Tumeur maligneNM40Malignant tumorNM40Tumor malignoNM40CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie du rectum41Rectal disease41Recto patología41Santé publique42Public health42Salud pública42061 8756-3282Bone : (NY NY)436Lifetime absolute risk of hip and other osteoporotic fracture in Belgian womenHILIGSMANN (Mickaël)BRUYERE (Olivier)ETHGEN (Olivier)GATHON (Henry-Jean)REGINSTER (Jean-Yves)Department of Economics, University of LiègeBEL1 aut.4 aut.Department of Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics, University of LiègeLiègeBEL1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.5 aut.991-9942008ENGINIST190413540001851153600300000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.43 ref.09-0065774PABone : (New York, NY)USAObjectives: To estimate the lifetime absolute risks of hip and other osteoporotic fracture in Belgian women aged 60 years and to examine the effect of changes in baseline population fracture risk and changes in life expectancy. Materials and methods: Estimates were performed using a Markov microsimulation model and were based on the incidence of first fracture as well as life expectancy. Baseline scenario included projected mortality rates and increasing fracture incidence by 1% per year. Alternative scenarios were performed on age, life expectancy and trends in fracture incidence. Lifetime fracture risk for osteoporotic population [T-score≤-2.5) was also estimated. Results: In the baseline scenario, lifetime absolute risks of hip fracture and of any major osteoporotic fracture (hip, clinical vertebral or wrist) were respectively 24.8% and 44.3%. Alternative scenarios showed that when assuming no change of age-specific fracture rates over time, these lifetime risks were 18.3% and 35.2%, while these values were 20.0% and 38.3% assuming no future mortality reductions. For osteoporotic women, these values were respectively 34.5% and 51.5%. Conclusion: We conclude that absolute lifetime fracture risks are substantial and that trends in fracture incidence and changes in life expectancy have a marked impact on absolute lifetime fracture risks.002A16002B15A002B16HOstéoporose01Osteoporosis01Osteoporosis01Durée vie07Lifetime07Tiempo vida07Facteur risque08Risk factor08Factor riesgo08Hanche09Hip09Cadera09Fracture13Fracture13Fractura13Femme14Woman14Mujer14Epidémiologie16Epidemiology16Epidemiología16Mortalité17Mortality17Mortalidad17Morphologie18Morphology18Morfología18Orthopédie19Orthopedics19Ortopedia19Pronostic30Prognosis30Pronóstico30HommeHumanHombrePathologie du système ostéoarticulaire37Diseases of the osteoarticular system37Sistema osteoarticular patología37Traumatisme38Trauma38Traumatismo38047OTOOTO 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1471Estimating quadratic variation consistently in the presence of endogenous and diurnal measurement errorEconometric modelling in finance and risk managementKALNINA (Iize)LINTON (Oliver)GAO (Jiti)ed.MCALEER (Michael)ed.ALLEN (David E.)ed.Department of Economics, London School of Economics, Houghton StreetLondon WC2A 2AEGBR1 aut.2 aut.School of Economics, The University of AdelaideAdelaide SA 5005AUS1 aut.School of Economics and Commerce, The University of Western AustraliaCrawley WA 6009AUS2 aut.School of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Edith Cowan UniversityJoondalup WA 6027AUS3 aut.47-592008ENGINIST164603540001849966600400000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.09-0040277PAJournal of econometricsNLDWe propose an econometric model that captures the effects of market microstructure on a latent price process. In particular, we allow for correlation between the measurement error and the return process and we allow the measurement error process to have a diurnal heteroskedasticity. We propose a modification of the TSRV estimator of quadratic variation. We show that this estimator is consistent, with a rate of convergence that depends on the size of the measurement error, but is no worse than n-^1/6. We investigate in simulation experiments the finite sample performance of various proposed implementations.001A02H02N2001A02H02I001A02I01BSciences économiques01Economic sciences01Ciencias económicas01Analyse multivariable02Multivariate analysis02Análisis multivariable02Association statistique03Statistical association03Asociación estadística03Analyse numérique04Numerical analysis04Análisis numérico04Accélération convergence05Convergence acceleration05Aceleración convergencia05Estimation statistique17Statistical estimation17Estimación estadística17Erreur mesure18Measurement error18Error medida18Estimation erreur19Error estimation19Estimación error19Modèle économétrique20Econometric model20Modelo econométrico20Econométrie21Econometrics21Econometría21Prix marché22Market price22Precio de mercado22Corrélation23Correlation23Correlación23Analyse corrélation24Correlation analysis24Análisis correlación24Estimateur convergent25Consistent estimator25Estimador convergente25Taux convergence26Convergence rate26Relación convergencia26Convergence27Convergence27Convergencia27Simulation28Simulation28Simulación28Implémentation29Implementation29Implementación29Méthode statistique30Statistical method30Método estadístico30Analyse donnée31Data analysis31Análisis datos31Donnée économique32Economic data32Dato económico32Variation quadratiqueINC7062P20INC7162H20INC7265B99INC73Echantillon finiCD96Finite sampleCD96026OTOOTO 0140-9883EECODREnergy econ.306Estimating 'Value at Risk' of crude oil price and its spillover effect using the GED-GARCH approachTechnological Change and the EnvironmentYING FANZHANG (Yue-Jun)TSAI (Hsien-Tang)WEI (Yi-Ming)FISHER-VANDEN (Karen)ed.Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing, 100080CHN1 aut.2 aut.4 aut.Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing, 100080CHN2 aut.College of Management, National Sun Yat-sen UniversityKaohsiung 80424TWN3 aut.Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Pennsylvania Sate University, 103 Armsby BuildingUniversity Park, PA 16802-5600USA1 aut.3156-31712008ENGINIST182313540001960672302600000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.09-0008696PAEnergy economicsGBREstimation has been carried out using GARCH-type models, based on the Generalized Error Distribution (GED), for both the extreme downside and upside Value-at-Risks (VaR) of returns in the WTI and Brent crude oil spot markets. Furthermore, according to a new concept of Granger causality in risk, a kernel-based test is proposed to detect extreme risk spillover effect between the two oil markets. Results of an empirical study indicate that the GED-GARCH-based VaR approach appears more effective than the well-recognized HSAF (i.e. historical simulation with ARMA forecasts). Moreover, this approach is also more realistic and comprehensive than the standard normal distribution-based VaR model that is commonly used. Results reveal that there is significant two-way risk spillover effect between WTI and Brent markets. Supplementary study indicates that at the 99% confidence level, when negative market news arises that brings about a slump in oil price return, historical information on risk in the WTI market helps to forecast the Brent market. Conversely, it is not the case when positive news occurs and returns rise. Historical information on risk in the two markets can facilitate forecasts of future extreme market risks for each other. These results are valuable for anyone who needs evaluation and forecasts of the risk situation in international crude oil markets.001D06A01C2B001D06A01A230Economie pétrolière01Oil economy01Economía petrolera01PétroleFX02PetroleumFX02PetróleoFX02Prix03Price03Precio03Spillover04Spillover04Rebose04Analyse risque05Risk analysis05Análisis riesgo05Causalité06Causality06Causalidad06Modèle économétrique07Econometric model07Modelo econométrico07Valeur exposéeCD96Value at riskCD96004 0003-4819AIMEASAnn. intern. med.1499Evaluating Test Strategies for Colorectal Cancer Screening : A Decision Analysis for the U.S. Preventive Services Task ForceZAUBER (Ann G.)LANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris)KNUDSEN (Amy B.)WILSCHUT (Janneke)VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein)KUNTZ (Karen M.)Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer CenterNew York, New YorkUSAErasmus Medical CenterRotterdamNLDMassachusetts General HospitalBoston, MassachusettsUSAUniversity of MinnesotaMinneapolis, MinnesotaUSA659-6692008ENGINIST20143540001839616900600000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.38 ref.09-0005526PAAnnals of internal medicineUSABackground: The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force requested a decision analysis to inform their update of recommendations for colorectal cancer screening. Objective: To assess life-years gained and colonoscopy requirements for colorectal cancer screening strategies and identify a set of recommendable screening strategies. Design: Decision analysis using 2 colorectal cancer microsimulation models from the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network. Data Sources: Derived from the literature. Target Population: U.S. average-risk 40-year-old population. Perspective: Societal. Time Horizon: Lifetime. Interventions: Fecal occult blood tests (FOBTs), flexible sigmoidoscopy, or colonoscopy screening beginning at age 40, 50, or 60 years and stopping at age 75 or 85 years, with screening intervals of 1, 2, or 3 years for FOBT and 5, 10, or 20 years for sigmoidoscopy and colonoscopy. Outcome Measures: Number of life-years gained compared with no screening and number of colonoscopies and noncolonoscopy tests required. Results of Base-Case Analysis: Beginning screening at age 50 years was consistently better than at age 60. Decreasing the stop age from 85 to 75 years decreased life-years gained by 1% to 4%, whereas colonoscopy use decreased by 4% to 15%. Assuming equally high adherence, 4 strategies provided similar life-years gained: colonoscopy every 10 years, annual Hemoccult SENSA (Beckman Coulter, Fullerton, California) testing or fecal immunochemical testing, and sigmoidoscopy every 5 years with midinterval Hemoccult SENSA testing. Annual Hemoccult II and flexible sigmoidoscopy every 5 years alone were less effective. Results of Sensitivity Analysis: The results were most sensitive to beginning screening at age 40 years. Limitation: The stop age for screening was based only on chronologic age. Conclusion: The findings support colorectal cancer screening with the following: colonoscopy every 10 years, annual screening with a sensitive FOBT, or flexible sigmoidoscopy every 5 years with a midinterval sensitive FOBT from age 50 to 75 years.002B01002B13B01002B30A03Cancer colorectalNM01Colorectal cancerNM01Cancer de colon y rectoNM01Stratégie02Strategy02Estrategia02Dépistage03Medical screening03Descubrimiento03Analyse décision05Decision analysis05Análisis decisión05Prévention06Prevention06Prevención06Etats-UnisNG08United StatesNG08Estados UnidosNG08Médecine09Medicine09Medicina09Homme25Human25Hombre25Groupe de travailCD96Working groupCD96Grupo de trabajoCD96Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNGPathologie de l'appareil digestif37Digestive diseases37Aparato digestivo patología37Pathologie du côlon38Colonic disease38Colón patología38Pathologie de l'intestin39Intestinal disease39Intestino patología39Tumeur maligneNM40Malignant tumorNM40Tumor malignoNM40CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie du rectum41Rectal disease41Recto patología41004OTOOTO 0885-6230Int. j. geriatr. psychiatry2410Economic evaluation of cholinesterase inhibitor therapy for dementia: comparison of Alzheimer's disease and Dementia with Lewy bodiesGUSTAVSSON (Anders)VAN DER PUTT (Rohan)JÖNSSON (Linus)MCSHANE (Rupert)I3 InnovusStockholmSWE1 aut.3 aut.Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire Mental Health NHS TrustOxfordGBR2 aut.4 aut.1072-10782009ENGINIST211883540001881077100500000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.09-0465222PAInternational journal of geriatric psychiatryGBRObjective To assess the cost effectiveness of cholinesterase inhibitor (ChEI) treatment in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB). Method We used 4-month open label follow-up data from routine memory clinic patients. There were 852 patients with AD and 112 with DLB. We applied three predictive models to estimate clinical and economic outcomes at five years, comparing AD and DLB patients with hypothetical untreated controls. Results The mean improvement in MMSE in 852 AD patients was 0.57 (SD 3.4) at 4 months, and in the subgroup with baseline MMSE of 10-20 (moderate) was 1.6 (SD 3.7). Overall, the 112 DLB patients improved by 1.4 (SD 3.7). DLB patients with an MMSE 10-20 improved by 3.1 (SD 4.5) points. These efficacy data were input into the SHTAC, microsimulation and Markov models and produced estimated costs per QALY gained (CQG) for all AD of £194,066, £67,904 and £123,935 respectively. In comparison, the CQGs for all DLB were £46,794, £2,706 and £35,922. For the moderate subgroups only the SHTAC and microsimulation models were applicable. These gave CQG estimates for moderate AD of £39,664 and cost saving respectively. For moderate DLB, both estimates were cost saving. Conclusion The cost per QALY gained of cholinesterase treatment of all patients with DLB (including those with MMSE outside the 10-20 range) is comparable to that of patients with moderate AD, and is probably cost saving.770E02VEconomie santé01Health economy01Economía salud01Santé publique02Public health02Salud pública02Analyse coût03Cost analysis03Análisis costo03Anticholinestérasique04Anticholinesterase agent04Anticolinesterasa agente04Pharmacothérapie05Pharmacotherapy05Farmacoterapia05Démence d'Alzheimer06Alzheimer disease06Demencia Alzheimer06Etude comparative07Comparative study07Estudio comparativo07Démence à corps de LewyNM08Lewy body dementiaNM08Demencia cuerpos LewyNM08Analyse économique09Economic analysis09Análisis económico09Efficacité traitement10Treatment efficiency10Eficacia tratamiento10Etude longitudinale11Follow up study11Estudio longitudinal11Santé mentale12Mental health12Salud mental12Environnement social13Social environment13Contexto social13Royaume-UniNG14United KingdomNG14Reino UnidoNG14Personne âgée18Elderly18Anciano18TraitementTreatmentTratamientoEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGHommeHumanHombrePathologie de l'encéphale37Cerebral disorder37Encéfalo patología37Maladie dégénérative38Degenerative disease38Enfermedad degenerativa38Pathologie du système nerveux central39Central nervous system disease39Sistema nervosio central patología39Pathologie du système nerveux40Nervous system diseases40Sistema nervioso patología40341 0336-1454Econ. stat413Le caractère régressif des taxes indirectes : les enseignements d'un modèle de microsimulationRUIZ (Nicolas)TRANNOY (Alain)Idep, Vieille Charité, 2 rue de la Charité13002, MarseilleFRA1 aut.EHESS, Greqam-ldep, Vieille Charité, 2 rue de la Charité13002, MarseilleFRA2 aut.21-46, 65-67, 69 [30 p.]2008FREenggerspaINIST242283540001846963600200000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.09-0225620PAEconomie et statistiqueFRAThe Regressive Nature of Indirect Taxes : Lessons from a Micro-Simulation ModelLa fiscalité indirecte française regroupe à la fois des taxes sur la valeur (TVA, taxe sur les conventions d'assurance, etc.) et, pour certains biens (alcools, tabacs, produits pétroliers, etc.), des droits portant sur les quantités consommées (ou droits d'accises) qui s'ajoutent à la TVA. Taxes et droits d'accises peuvent se ramener pour tous les biens à un taux unique implicite sur la valeur. La fiscalité indirecte pèse davantage sur les ménages modestes: ces ménages consacrent en effet une part beaucoup plus grande de leur budget aux biens soumis aux accises que les ménages aisés. Le premier décile acquitte ainsi 4,3 % de son revenu en ces taxes, le dernier décile simplement 1,3 %. La mesure de l'impact d'une réforme (prenant la forme d'une modification des taux ou des accises au moyen de leurs taux implicites) suppose de pouvoir disposer d'une modélisation des comportements des consommateurs vis-à-vis des produits soumis à ce type d'impôt. Pour cela, on estime pour ces biens des élasticités-prix et des élasticités-revenu ensuite intégrées à un modèle de micro-simulation. Ces élasticités dérivent de fonctions de demandes dont l'estimation utilise des indices de prix dits « personnalisés »qui tirent parti pour chaque grand poste des différences de structure de consommation entre les différents ménages, ceci afin de disposer d'une variabilité dans les indices de prix. Ce modèle permet de mesurer l'impact de deux mesures: la première espace les taux de TVA, la seconde augmente les accises en diminuant le taux de TVA, les deux réformes étant conçues à solde budgétaire constant. Chacune opère un transfert de charge fiscale d'ampleur limitée, favorable aux revenus modestes dans le cas de la première et à leur détriment pour la seconde. La relative similarité des profils de consommation moyenne par déciles de revenu et la forte hétérogénéité des profils de consommation au sein de chaque décile atténuent en effet l'impact de ces réformes en matière de redistribution.52146XII521Impôt indirect01Indirect Tax01FranceNG02FranceNG02Politique fiscale03Fiscal Policy03Consommation04Consumption04166 1167-4687Retraite soc. : (Paris)56Le niveau de vie des retraités : Conséquences des réformes des retraites et influence des modes d'indexationCRENNER (Emmanuelle)InseeFRA1 aut.41-69, 285, 291 [31 p.]2009FREengINIST274123540001869155100200000© 2009 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.09-0121304PARetraite et société : (Paris)FRAThe Living Standard of Retirees Effects of the Pension Reform and Impact of Indexation MethodsLes générations partant à la retraite dans les trente-cinq années à venir auront des histoires socio-économiques différentes des générations précédentes. Les femmes auront plus participé au marché du travail, les salaires perçus au cours de la carrière seront plus élevés, la durée des études sera plus longue. Mais ces générations auront aussi, sur le plan démographique, plus souvent connu des séparations. Surtout, elles sont concernées par d'importants changements en matière de calcul de la pension de retraite suite aux réformes de 1993 et de 2003. Cet article a pour objectif d'évaluer l'évolution du niveau de vie des retraités pour les générations à venir, et de mesurer comment celle-ci est affectée par les changements socio-économiques et législatifs. Pour cela, nous avons simulé l'évolution du niveau de vie des individus nés entre 1945 et 1962 grâce au modèle de microsimulation Destinie. Au fil des générations, le niveau de vie moyen des retraités au moment où ils liquident leur retraite devrait augmenter, mais de façon plus importante pour les hommes que pour les femmes. Plus tard, pendant les quinze premières années de la retraite, les écarts de niveau de vie entre les hommes et les femmes devraient augmenter pour toutes les générations: sous l'effet des événements démographiques, le niveau de vie des hommes augmente alors que celui des femmes stagne. Les réformes de 1993 et 2003 auront pour conséquence, dès la liquidation de la pension, des niveaux de vie pour les retraités plus faibles que si les réformes n'avaient pas eu lieu. Mais surtout cet écart augmente au fur et à mesure de la retraite. Les changements de mode d'indexation des pensions expliquent 70% de la perte de niveau de vie après quinze années de retraite par rapport à un scénario sans application des réformes.52133AVIII52146AXII521Niveau de vie01Standard of Living01Revenu02Income02Personne âgée03Elderly person03Retraités04Pensioners04FranceNG05FranceNG05Réforme06Reform06Conséquence économique07Economic Consequence07082 0968-090XTransp. res., Part C Emerg. technol.163Stochastic optimization of traffic control and transit priority settings in VISSIMEmerging commercial technologiesSTEVANOVIC (Jelka)STEVANOVIC (Aleksandar)MARTIN (Peter T.)BAUER (Thomas)PRASHKER (Joseph N.)ed.University of Utah, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 122 S. Central Campus Dr.. Rm. 104Salt Lake City. UT 84112-0561USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.PTV America Inc., 1128 NE 2nd Street, Suite 204Corrallis, OR 97330USA4 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Technion Israel Institute of TechnologyISR1 aut.332-3492008ENGINIST12377C3540001978373800500000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.08-0522551PATransportation research. Part C, Emerging technologiesGBRGenetic algorithms have been shown to be effective tools for optimizations of traffic signal timings. However, only one tool that combines Genetic Algorithms and traffic microsimulation has matured to a commercial deployment: Direct CORSIM optimization, a feature of TRANSYT-7F. This paper presents a genetic algorithm formulation that builds on the best of the recorded methods, by extending their capabilities. It optimizes four basic signal timing parameters and transit priority settings using VISSIM microsimulation as the evaluation environment. The program is the first optimization tool that optimizes traffic control transit priority settings on roads with both private and transit traffic. These settings are optimized either simultaneously with the basic signal timings or separately, thus improving overall traffic operations without changing existing basic signal timings. The optimization has been tested on two VISSIM models: a suburban network of 12 signalized intersections in Park City, UT, and an urban corridor with transit operations in Albany, NY. The results show that timing plans optimized by the genetic algorithm outperformed the timing plans from the field and SYNCHRO. Optimization of the transit priority settings shows that adjustment of these settings has significant impact on travelers delay on the corridors with mixed traffic and transit operations.001D15C001D15B001D14O05295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Optimisation02Optimization02Optimización02Régulation trafic03Traffic control03Regulación tráfico03Priorité04Priority04Prioridad04Algorithme génétique05Genetic algorithm05Algoritmo genético05Feu signalisation06Traffic lights06Semáforo06Timing07Timing07Timing07Méthode stochastique08Stochastic method08Método estocástico08Simulation numérique09Numerical simulation09Simulación numérica09Programmation10Programming10Programación10Evaluation système11System evaluation11Evaluación sistema11343PSIPSI 0027-8874J. Natl. Cancer Inst.10018Breast Cancer Screening Policies in Developing Countries : A Cost-effectiveness Analysis for IndiaLAMBERTS OKONKWO (Quirine)DRAISMA (Gerrit)DER KINDEREN (Arno)BROWN (Martin L.)DE KONING (Harry J.)Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center RotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.5 aut.Netherlands Institute for Health SciencesRotterdamNLD1 aut.National Institutes of Health, Division Cancer Control & Population Sciences, Health Services & Economics BranchBethesda, MDUSA4 aut.1290-13002008ENGINIST33643540001842636200300000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.48 ref.08-0517901PAJournal of the National Cancer InstituteUSABackground India, the largest developing country, has a steadily rising incidence of breast cancer. Estimates and comparisons of the cost-effectiveness of feasible breast cancer screening policies in developing countries and identification of the determinants of cost and efficacy are needed. Methods A Microsimulation Screening Analysis model of breast cancer was calibrated to available data on breast cancer incidence, stage distribution, and mortality in India. The model was used to estimate the costs of screening for breast cancer in India, its effects on mortality, and its cost-effectiveness (ie, costs of screening per life-year gained or life saved). Screening using clinical breast examination (CBE) or mammography among different age groups and at various frequencies was analyzed. Costs were expressed in international dollars (lnt.$), the currency used by the World Health Organization, which has the same purchasing power in India as the US dollar has in the United States. To determine which factors influenced cost-effectiveness, sensitivity analyses were performed. Results The estimated mortality reduction was the greatest for programs targeting women between age 40 and 60 years. Using a 3% discount rate, a single CBE at age 50 had an estimated cost-effectiveness ratio of lnt.$793 per life year gained and a breast cancer mortality reduction of 2%. The cost-effectiveness ratio increased to Int.$1135 per life year gained for every-5-year CBE (age 40-60 years) and to lnt.$1341 for biennial CBE (age 40-60 years); the corresponding reductions in breast cancer mortality were 8.2% and 16.3%, respectively. CBE performed annually from ages 40 to 60 was predicted to be nearly as efficacious as biennial mammography screening for reducing breast cancer mortality while incurring only half the net costs. The main factors affecting cost-effectiveness were breast cancer incidence, stage distribution, and cost savings on prevented palliative care. Conclusion The estimated cost-effectiveness of CBE screening for breast cancer in India compares favorably with that of mammography in developed countries. However, in view of competing priorities and economic conditions, the introduction of screening in India represents a greater challenge than it has been in more developed countries.002B04002B20E02235Cancer du seinNM01Breast cancerNM01Cáncer del pechoNM01Dépistage02Medical screening02Descubrimiento02Politique sanitaire03Health policy03Política sanitaria03Pays en développement05Developing countries05Países en desarrollo05Analyse coût efficacité06Cost efficiency analysis06Análisis costo eficacia06IndeNG08IndiaNG08IndiaNG08Cancérologie09Cancerology09Cancerología09Economie santé11Health economy11Economía salud11Homme12Human12Hombre12AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNGTumeur maligneNM37Malignant tumorNM37Tumor malignoNM37CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie de la glande mammaireNM38Mammary gland diseasesNM38Glándula mamaria patologíaNM38Pathologie du seinNM39Breast diseaseNM39Seno patologíaNM39Santé publique40Public health40Salud pública40343 0140-9883EECODREnergy econ.305An empirical study on the rebound effect considering capital costsMIZOBUCHI (Kenichi)Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, 2-1, Rokkodai, NadaKobe, Hyogo 657-8501JPN1 aut.2486-25162008ENGINIST182313540001963263802500000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.08-0508344PAEnergy economicsGBRTechnological progress is one of the means of reducing energy usage and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. However, this reduction, in turn, leads to a reduction in the real cost of energy services per unit, which results in an increase in the demand for energy services. Therefore, a reduction in the anticipated CO₂ emissions caused by a technological improvement might be partially offset in response to the cost reduction. Previous studies have referred to this effect as the &dquot;rebound effect.&dquot; A large amount of empirical evidence on the rebound effect exists; however, most of these studies assume an exogenous improvement in energy efficiency, and thus, capital costs that may decrease the magnitude of the rebound effect are not taken into account expressly. This paper extends the scope of the research conducted by Brannlund et al. [Brannlund, R., Ghalwash, T., Nordstrom, J., 2007. Increased energy efficiency and the rebound effect: effects on consumption and emissions. Energy Economics 29, 1-17] in terms of two aspects: (i) considering capital costs explicitly as additional capital costs and (ii) adapting an iterating procedure, and estimating the rebound effect, using Japanese household data. As a result of our empirical analysis, we conclude that the rebound is approximately 27%. However, we also find that ignoring additional capital costs leads to an increase in the rebound effect. In the case of Japanese households, the magnitude of the rebound effect increases to approximately 115%. Moreover, our simulation study shows that only a one-time iteration of Brannlund et al. [Brannlund, R., Ghalwash, T., Nordstrom, J., 2007. Increased energy efficiency and the rebound effect: effects on consumption and emissions. Energy Economics 29, 1-17] may lead to a biased result.001D06A01B001D06A01A230Conservation énergie01Energy conservation01Conservación energética01Economies d'énergie02Energy savings02Ahorros energía02Emission polluant03Pollutant emission03Emisión contaminante03Dioxyde de carboneNKFX04Carbon dioxideNKFX04Carbono dióxidoNKFX04Rebond05Rebound05Rebote05Coût capital06Capital cost06Coste capital06Secteur domestique07Residential sector07Sector doméstico07Estimation Bayes08Bayes estimation08Estimación Bayes08Demande09Demand09Petición09Service10Service10Servicio10Modèle économétrique11Econometric model11Modelo econométrico11336 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2047Two-Phase Model of Ramp Closure for Incident ManagementFreeway Operations 2008BOYLES (Stephen)KAROONSOONTAWONG (Ampol)FAJARDO (David)WALLER (S. Travis)Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1761Austin, TX 78712USA1 aut.3 aut.4 aut.School of Transportation Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, 111 University AvenueMuang District, Nakhon Ratchasima, 30000THA2 aut.83-902008ENGINIST10459B3540001856437801000000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.19 ref.08-0504666PATransportation research recordUSATemporary on-ramp closure has been proposed as a strategy to reduce the impact of severe incidents on freeway facilities; however, to date no rigorous procedure has been made available to provide guidance on how such a technique should best be used. In particular, one must decide which ramps to close and for how long. A two-phase approach is proposed to answer these questions. The first phase is macroscopic in nature and predicts how motorists will reroute in response to any ramp closure and recommends which ramps should be closed. The second phase uses microsimulation to study the vicinity of the incident in greater detail, more fully accounting for dynamic traffic phenomena and attempting to answer the question of how long these ramps should be closed. From a computational standpoint, the first phase is designed to run as quickly as possible to allow the ramp closure policy to be enacted as the second phase begins, since the results of the second phase are not needed until later. This procedure is demonstrated by using a fictitious incident in the El Paso region of Texas.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Autoroute02Freeway02Autopista02Fermeture03Closure03Cerradura03Incident04Mishap04Incidente04Gestion trafic05Traffic management05Gestión tráfico05Ecoulement diphasique06Two phase flow06Flujo difásico06Modélisation07Modeling07Modelización07329PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2047Simple Approach to Estimating Changes in Toll Plaza DelaysFreeway Operations 2008OZMEN-ERTEKIN (Dilruba)OZBAY (Kaan)MUDIGONDA (Sandeep)COCHRAN (Anne M.)Engineering Department, Hofstra University, 133 Hofstra UniversityHempstead, NY 11549USA1 aut.Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Rutgers University, 623 Bowser RoadPiscataway, NJ 08854USA2 aut.3 aut.Urban Engineers, Inc., 530 Walnut StreetPhiladelphia, PA 19103USA4 aut.66-742008ENGINIST10459B3540001856437800800000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.23 ref.08-0504660PATransportation research recordUSAToll plazas are important components of the road infrastructure, especially on urban highways. They can have adverse capacity and safety impacts on traffic. However, the plazas serve an important purpose, namely, revenue generation for highway agencies. Various traffic management and electronic toll collection strategies, including regular and high-speed E-ZPass and time-of-day pricing, are also implemented as part of toll plaza operations to change traffic supply and demand characteristics and improve networkwide level of service. In recent years, because of the increasing need to better assess the impact of toll plazas combined with these various traffic management strategies, customized or off-the-shelf microsimulation and macrosimulation models of toll plazas have been developed. This study reviews the literature on both approaches. Then a customized microscopic toll plaza model developed as an integrated part of PARAMICS microsimulation is compared with a relatively simple macroscopic model. This kind of macroscopic model, which can estimate toll plaza delays, is needed because it is extremely difficult and expensive to calibrate and implement microsimulation models when projects have severe budget and time constraints. Several New Jersey Turnpike toll plazas that were well validated and calibrated are used in the comparison. A sensitivity analysis is conducted with various other toll plazas to ensure the validity of the macroscopic model, especially for cases in which demand is reduced because of a real-time traffic management strategy. Results indicate that the macroscopic method is comparable (within average error 2.6% to 6.4%) with the PARAMICS model when sufficient care is taken in selecting macroscopic and microscopic model parameters consistently.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Autoroute02Freeway02Autopista02Péage03Toll03Peaje03Etude impact04Impact study04Estudio impacto04Poste péage05Toll station05Puesto control peaje05Modélisation06Modeling06Modelización06Retard07Delay07Retraso07Etude comparative08Comparative study08Estudio comparativo08Analyse sensibilité09Sensitivity analysis09Análisis sensibilidad09Modèle simulation10Simulation model10Modelo simulación10Recommandation11Recommendation11Recomendación11New JerseyNG12New JerseyNG12New JerseyNG12Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG329PSIPSI 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1346Toward Roundabout Accessibility-Exploring the Operational Impact of Pedestrian Signalization Options at Modern RoundaboutsSCHROEDER (Bastian J.)ROUPHAIL (Nagui M.)HUGHES (Ronald G.)Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State Univ., Centennial Campus, Box 8601Raleigh, NC 27695-8601USA1 aut.3 aut.VAMS Group & Commercial Vehicle and Safety, Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State Univ., Centennial Campus, Box 8601Raleigh, NC 27695-8601USA2 aut.262-2712008ENGINIST572E3540001960008000500000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.08-0493802PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAThis paper explores the use of pedestrian signalization options for crosswalks at one- and two-lane roundabouts to enable these facilities to be accessible to pedestrians with vision impairments. Motivated by uncertainties about the safety of roundabouts for blind pedestrians, audible pedestrian signals hold promise for safely regulating the interaction of vehicles and pedestrians at these facilities. However, the use of pedestrian signals at roundabouts is controversial because of the potential for queue spillback into the circulating lane and delays to vehicular traffic. The objective of this work is to quantify pedestrian-induced delays and queuing impacts of a pedestrian signal placed at the busiest approach of a modern roundabout. The analysis is performed using a calibrated microsimulation model and includes assessment of innovative solutions for crossing geometry and phasing scheme at one-lane and two-lane roundabouts. The results suggest that the impact of pedestrian signals at roundabouts is greatest as vehicle volumes approach capacity, but that vehicle delay and queuing can be mitigated through innovative signal configurations. The findings are important in light of recent discourse concerning the accessibility of roundabouts to pedestrians with vision impairments that may ultimately move towards a requirement for signalization for certain facility types.001D15C001D14O02295Sécurité trafic01Traffic safety01Seguridad tráfico01Carrefour giratoire02Roundabout02Bifurcación giratoria02Accessibilité03Accessibility03Accesibilidad03Intersection04Intersection04Intersección04Feu signalisation05Traffic lights05Semáforo05Trafic piéton06Pedestrian traffic06Tráfico peatones06Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Etude comparative08Comparative study08Estudio comparativo08Etalonnage09Calibration09Contraste09Implémentation10Implementation10Implementación10Evaluation performance11Performance evaluation11Evaluación prestación11Analyse quantitative12Quantitative analysis12Análisis cuantitativo12Déficit acuité visuelleNM13Visual impairmentNM13Deficiencia acuidad visualNM13Retard14Delay14Retraso14File attente15Queue15Fila espera15322PSIPSI 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1451-2Is econometrics useful for private policy making? A case study of replacement policy at an auto rental companyThe use of econometrics in informing public policy makersSUNGJIN CHORUST (John)SICKLES (Robin C.)ed.WILLIAMS (Jennifer)ed.Seoul National UniversityKOR1 aut.University of MarylandUSA2 aut.Rice UniversityUSA1 aut.University of MelbourneAUS2 aut.243-2572008ENGINIST164603540001855850301500000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.08-0466168PAJournal of econometricsNLDThe goal of this paper is to illustrate the potential usefulness of econometrics as a tool to assist private policy makers. We provide a case study and detailed econometric analysis of the automobile replacement policy adopted by a large car rental company. Unlike public policy making - where the benefits from using econometric models and &dquot;science-based&dquot; approaches to policy making are hard to quantify because the outcomes of interest are typically subjective quantities such as &dquot;social welfare&dquot; - in the case of firms there is an objective, easily quantifiable criterion for judging whether policy A is better than policy B: profits. We introduce and estimate an econometric model of the rental histories of individual cars in the company's fleet. Via stochastic simulations, we show that the model provides a good approximation to the company's actual operations. In particular, the econometric model is able to reproduce the extraordinarily high rates of return that the company obtains on its rental cars, with average internal rates of return between purchase and sale of approximately 50%. However, the econometric model can simulate outcomes under a range of counterfactual vehicle replacement policies. We use the econometric model to simulate the profitability of an alternative replacement policy under pessimistic assumptions about the rate maintenance costs would increase and rental rates would have to be decreased if the company were to keep its rental cars longer than it does under the status quo. Depending on the vehicle type, we find that the company's expected discounted profits would be between 6% to over 140% higher under the suggested alternative operating strategy where vehicles are kept longer and rental rates of older vehicles are discounted to induce customers to rent them. The company found this analysis to be sufficiently convincing that it undertook an experiment to verify the predictions of the econometric model.001A02H02N2001A02H01H001A02H02MSciences économiques01Economic sciences01Ciencias económicas01Processus stochastique02Stochastic process02Proceso estocástico02Théorie filtrage03Filtering theory03Econométrie17Econometrics17Econometría17Etude cas18Case study18Estudio caso18Modèle économétrique19Econometric model19Modelo econométrico19Bien être économique20Welfare20Bienestar económico20Simulation stochastique21Stochastic simulation21Simulación estocástica21Modèle simulation22Simulation model22Modelo simulación22Approximation23Approximation23Aproximación23Moyenne24Average24Promedio24Estimation moyenne25Mean estimation25Estimación promedio25Vente26Sales26Venta26Prédiction27Prediction27Predicción27Théorie prédiction28Prediction theory28Méthode statistique29Statistical method29Método estadístico29Estimation statistique30Statistical estimation30Estimación estadística30Analyse donnée31Data analysis31Análisis datos31Donnée économique32Economic data32Dato económico3262P20INC7060G25INC7162M20INC72301OTOOTO 0269-9370AIDS : (Lond.)22SUP1Macroeconomic and household-level impacts of HIV/AIDS in BotswanaHIV/AIDS Interventions in Developing Countries: Using Economic Evaluation and Analyses to Help Guide Policy and ActionJEFFERIS (Keith)KINGHORN (Anthony)SIPHAMBE (Happy)THURLOW (James)MARLINK (Richard)ed.FORSYTHE (Steven)ed.BERTOZZI (Stefano M.)ed.Econsult BotswanaGaboroneBWA1 aut.Health and Development AfricaJohannesburgZAF2 aut.Department of Economics, University of BotswanaBWA3 aut.International Food Policy Research InstituteWashington, DCUSA4 aut.Harvard School of Public HealthBoston, MassachusettsUSA1 aut.Instituto Nacional de Salud PublicaCuernavacaMEX2 aut.Center for Evaluation Research and Surveys, National Institute of Public Health (INSP)CuernavacaMEX3 aut.S113-S1192008ENGINIST220943540001963771001300000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.13 ref.08-0449280PCAAIDS : (London)USAObjective: To measure the impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth and poverty in Botswana and estimate how providing treatment can mitigate its effects. Methods: Demographic and financial projections were combined with economic simulation models, including a macroeconomic growth model and a macro-microeconomic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model. Results: HIV/AIDS significantly reduces economic growth and increases household poverty. The impact is now severe enough to be affecting the economy as a whole, and threatens to pull some of the uninfected population into poverty. Providing antiretroviral therapy can partly offset this negative effect. Treatment increases health's share of government expenditure only marginally, because it increases economic growth and because withholding treatment raises the cost of other health services. Conclusion: Botswana's treatment programme is appropriate from a macroeconomic perspective. Conducting macroeconomic impact assessments is important in countries where prevalence rates are particularly high.002B05C02D002B02S05002B06D01SIDA01AIDS01SIDA01Antiviral04Antiviral04Antiviral04Chimiothérapie05Chemotherapy05Quimioterapia05BotswanaNG07BotswanaNG07BotswanaNG07Antirétroviral09Antiretroviral agent09Antiretroviral09Virus immunodéficience humaineNW10Human immunodeficiency virusNW10Human immunodeficiency virusNW10Pauvreté13Poverty13Pobreza13Statut socioéconomique30Socioeconomic status30Estatuto socioeconómico30ViroseViral diseaseVirosisInfectionInfectionInfecciónTraitementTreatmentTratamientoAfriqueNGAfricaNGAfricaNGLentivirusNWLentivirusNWLentivirusNWRetroviridaeNWRetroviridaeNWRetroviridaeNWVirusNWVirusNWVirusNWImmunodéficit37Immune deficiency37Inmunodeficiencia37Immunopathologie39Immunopathology39Inmunopatología39Epidémiologie40Epidemiology40Epidemiología40294OTOOTOHIV/AIDS Interventions in Developing Countries: Using Economic Evaluation and Analyses to Help Guide Policy and Action. ConferenceBoston, MA USA2006-09-13 Use of propensity scores in non-linear response models : the case for health care expendituresBASU (A.)POLSKY (D.)MANNING (W.G.)National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge. MA.USA2008-06ENGNBERCambridge53 p.tabl., fig.BDSP/IRDESP193, CODBAR 00582168800dissem.08-0437814LMUSAUtilisation de scores de propension dans des modèles de réponses non linéaires : le cas des dépenses de santéUnder the assumption of no unmeasured confounders, a large literature exists on methods that can be used to estimating average treatment effects (ATE) from observational data and that spans regression models, propensity score adjustments using stratification, weighting or regression and even the combination of both as in doubly-robust estimators. However, comparison of these alternative methods is sparse in the context of data generated via non-linear models where treatment effects are heterogeneous, such as is in the case of healthcare cost data. In this paper, we compare the performance of alternative regression and propensity score-based estimators in estimating average treatment effects on outcomes that are generated via non-linear models. Using simulations, we find that in moderate size samples (n=5000), balancing on estimated propensity scores balances the covariate means across treatment arms but fails to balance higher-order moments and covariances amongst covariates, raising concern about its use in non-linear outcomes generating mechanisms. We also find that besides inverse-probability weighting (IPW) with propensity scores, no one estimator is consistent under all data generating mechanisms. The IPW estimator is itself prone to inconsistency due to misspecification of the model for estimating propensity scores. Even when it is consistent, the IPW estimator is usually extremely inefficient. Thus care should be taken before naively applying any one estimator to estimate ATE in these data. We develop a recommendation for an algorithm which may help applied researchers to arrive at the optimal estimator. We illustrate the application of this algorithm and also the performance of alternative methods in a cost dataset on breast cancer treatment002B30A11DépenseExpenditureGastoSantéHealthSaludCoûtCostsCosteTraitementTreatmentTratamientoTumeur maligneNMMalignant tumorNMTumor malignoNMGlande mammaireMammary glandGlándula mamariaRentabilitéProfitabilityRentabilidadAspect économiqueEconomic aspectAspecto económicoEvaluationEvaluationEvaluaciónSimulationSimulationSimulaciónRégressionRegressionRegresiónModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoMéthodologieMethodologyMetodologíaEtats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGCancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG287 93Estimating the expected value of partial perfect information : a review of methodsCOYLE (D.)OAKLEY (J.)251-2593 tab., 3 fig.2008-08ENGBDSP/IRDESP151, CODBAR 0058239880015 ref.08-0437765PATHE EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF HEALTH ECONOMICSDEUEstimation de la valeur attendue d'une information parfaite partiale : une revue de la méthodeValue of information analysis provides a framework for the analysis of uncertainty within economic analysis by focussing on the value of obtaining further information to reduce uncertainty. The mathematical definition of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) is fixed, though there are different methods in the literature for its estimation. In this paper these methods are explored and compared. Analysis was conducted using a disease model for Parkinson's disease. Five methods for estimating partial EVPIs (EVPPIs) were used : a single Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method, the unit normal loss integral (UNLI) method, a two-stage method using MCS, a two-stage method using MCS and quadrature and a difference method requiring two MCS. EVPPI was estimated for each individual parameter in the model as well as for three groups of parameters (transition probabilities, costs and utilities). Using 5,000 replications, four methods returned similar results for EVPPIs. With 5 million replications, results were near identical. However, the difference method repeatedly gave estimates substantially different to the other methods. The difference method is not rooted in the mathematical definition of EVPI and is clearly an inappropriate method for estimating EVPPI. The single MCS and UNLI methods were the least complex methods to use, but are restricted in their appropriateness. The two-stage MCS and quadrature-based methods are complex and time consuming. Thus, where appropriate, EVPPI should be estimated using either the single MCS or UNLI method. However, where neither of these methods is appropriate, either of the two-stage MCS and quadrature methods should be used002B30A11Aspect économiqueEconomic aspectAspecto económicoEvaluationEvaluationEvaluaciónInformationInformationInformaciónAnalyse valeurValue analysisAnálisis valorMéthodologieMethodologyMetodologíaModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométrico287 0049-4488TNPRDNTransportation353The principles of calibrating traffic microsimulation modelsHOLLANDER (Yaron)RONGHUI LIUSteer Davies Gleave, 28-32 Upper GroundLondon SE1 9PDGBR1 aut.Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, 38 University RoadLeeds LS2 9JTGBR2 aut.347-3622008ENGINIST159853540001830326400400000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/408-0430202PATransportationNLDTraffic microsimulation models normally include a large number of parameters that must be calibrated before the model can be used as a tool for prediction. A wave of methodologies for calibrating such models has been recently proposed in the literature, but there have been no attempts to identify general calibration principles based on their collective experience. The current paper attempts to guide traffic analysts through the basic requirements of the calibration of microsimulation models. Among the issues discussed here are underlying assumptions of the calibration process, the scope of the calibration problem, formulation and automation, measuring goodness-of-fit, and the need for repeated model runs.001D15BGestion trafic01Traffic management01Gestión tráfico01Modèle simulation02Simulation model02Modelo simulación02Etalonnage03Calibration03Contraste03Etude méthode04Method study04Estudio método04Résolution problème05Problem solving05Resolución problema05Formulation06Formulation06Formulación06Automatisation07Automation07Automatización07Test ajustement08Goodness of fit test08Prueba ajuste08Validation09Validation09Validación09280PSIPSI 0361-803XAAJRDXAm. j. roentgenol. : (1976)1912Cost-Effectiveness of Coronary MDCT in the Triage of Patients with Acute Chest PainLADAPO (Joseph A.)HOFFMANN (Udo)BAMBERG (Fabian)NAGURNEY (John T.)CUTLERS (David M.)WEINSTEIN (Milton C.)GAZELLE (G. Scott)Harvard Ph.D. Program in Health Policy, 14 Story St., 4th FloorCambridge, MA 02138USA1 aut.Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General HospitalBoston, MAUSA2 aut.3 aut.7 aut.Harvard Medical SchoolBoston, MAUSA2 aut.7 aut.Department of Emergency Medicine, Massachusetts General HospitalBoston, MAUSA4 aut.Department of Economics, Harvard UniversityCambridge, MAUSA5 aut.National Bureau of Economic ResearchCambridge, MAUSA5 aut.Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard School of Public HealthBoston, MAUSA6 aut.7 aut.Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General HospitalBoston, MAUSA7 aut.455-4632008ENGINIST50933540001973498802100000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.50 ref.08-0389049PAAmerican journal of roentgenology : (1976)USAOBJECTIVE. Patients at low risk for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who present to the emergency department complaining of acute chest pain place a substantial economic burden on the U.S. health care system. Noninvasive 64-MDCT coronary angiography may facilitate their triage, and we evaluated its cost-effectiveness. MATERIALS AND METHODS. A microsimulation model was developed to compare costs and health effects of performing CT coronary angiography and either discharging, stress testing, or referring emergency department patients for invasive coronary angiography, depending on their severity of atherosclerosis, compared with a standard-of-care (SOC) algorithm that based management on biomarkers and stress tests alone. RESULTS. Using CT coronary angiography to triage 55-year-old men with acute chest pain increased emergency department and hospital costs by $110 and raised total health care costs by $200. In 55-year-old women, the technology was cost-saving; emergency department and hospital costs decreased by $410, and total health care costs decreased by $380. Compared with the SOC, CT coronary angiography-based triage extended life expectancy by 10 days in men and by 6 days in women. This translated into corresponding improvements of 0.03 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and 0.01 QALYs, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for CT coronary angiography was $6,400 per QALY in men; in women, CT coronary angiography was cost-saving. Cost-effectiveness ratios were sensitive to several parameters but generally remained in the range of what is typically considered cost-effective. CONCLUSION. CT coronary angiography-based triage for patients with low-risk chest pain is modestly more effective than the SOC. It is also cost-saving in women and associated with low cost-effectiveness ratios in men.002B24002B12A03Cardiopathie coronaire01Coronary heart disease01Cardiopatía coronaria01Analyse coût efficacité07Cost efficiency analysis07Análisis costo eficacia07Artère coronaire08Coronary artery08Arteria coronaria08Aigu09Acute09Agudo09Homme10Human10Hombre10Thorax13Thorax13Tórax13Douleur14Pain14Dolor14Médecine nucléaire15Nuclear medicine15Medicina nuclear15Radiologie16Radiology16Radiología16Scanner X multibarrettesCD96Multidetector scannerCD96Economie santé37Health economy37Economía salud37Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire38Cardiovascular disease38Aparato circulatorio patología38Santé publique39Public health39Salud pública39252OTOOTO 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1342Assessment of the Suitability of Microsimulation as a Tool for the Evaluation of Macroscopically Optimized Traffic Signal TimingsSTEVANOVIC (Aleksandar Z.)MARTIN (Peter T.)Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Utah, 122 S. Central Campus Dr., Rm. 104Salt Lake City, UT 84112-0561USA1 aut.2 aut.59-672008ENGINIST572E3540001836210400100000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.08-0375917PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAIn practice, traffic signal timings are derived using macroscopic tools that are essentially deterministic. Traffic flows, signal phasing, and street geometry are processed to deliver optimized signal timings. Objective functions strive for efficiency through minimizing measures such as delay and journey time. We now have traffic microsimulation tools that model traffic by imitating its stochastic nature. This paper looks at microsimulation as a means of testing optimized signal timings. We assess the suitability of evaluating signal timings optimized macroscopically through microsimulation. We analyze a range of traffic demand and traffic control scenarios. A real-world arterial with 12 signalized intersections serves as a test bed for the experiments. The results show that when macroscopically optimized signal timings are subject to extensive evaluation through microsimulation, their efficiency is shown to be inconsistent. The paper concludes that the traffic microsimulation tools cannot always be relied upon to evaluate macroscopically optimized traffic signal timings because these timings sometimes perform worse, in microsimulation, than the nonoptimized signal timings.001D15C001D15B001D14O05295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Feu signalisation02Traffic lights02Semáforo02Gestion trafic03Traffic management03Gestión tráfico03Optimisation04Optimization04Optimización04Retard05Delay05Retraso05Timing06Timing06Timing06Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Performance08Performance08Rendimiento08Résultat mesure09Measurement result09Resultado medición09238PSIPSI 0018-9545ITVTABIEEE trans. veh. technol.574A Study on Gossiping in Transportation NetworksKRAUS (Sarit)PARSHANI (Roni)SHAVITT (Yuval)Department of Computer Science, Bar Ilan UniversityRamat-Gan 52900ISR1 aut.Department of Physics, Bar Ilan UniversityRamat-Gan 52900ISR2 aut.School of Electrical Engineering, Tel Aviv UniversityTel Aviv 69978ISR3 aut.2602-26072008ENGINIST222H13540002003701705500000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.28 ref.08-0365838PCRAIEEE transactions on vehicular technologyUSATo alleviate road congestion, suggestions have been made to equip cars with wireless communication to allow drivers to exchange information. This information is used to bypass congested areas. We study the dynamics of this solution using a hybrid microsimulation tool that we have developed and show that gossiping is an efficient method of information propagation. An increase in the number of gossiping agents leads to a faster and wider distribution of information. On the other hand, as in other information models, when the number of agents obtaining information about road conditions increases, their routing performance may decrease (unless smarter algorithms are deployed) since they will all attempt to use the same uncongested roads. Nevertheless, when the number of gossiping agents is balanced (20%-30% in our simulations), the average traveling time of gossiping agents is similar to the average traveling time of those who obtain information from a centralized information center.001D04B02B001D04B02G001D05I01B001D15CRéseau transport01Transportation network01Red transporte01Congestion trafic02Traffic congestion02Congestión tráfico02Automobile03Motor car03Automóvil03Télécommunication sans fil04Wireless telecommunication04Telecomunicación sin hilo04Excitateur05Driver05Excitador05Routage06Routing06Enrutamiento06Evaluation performance07Performance evaluation07Evaluación prestación07Algorithme08Algorithm08Algoritmo08Simulation système09System simulation09Simulación sistema09Réseau ad hoc10Ad hoc network10Red ad hoc10Stabilité réseau électrique31Power system stability31Télétrafic32Teletraffic32Teletráfico32Véhicule routier33Road vehicle33Vehículo caminero33231OTOOTO 0968-090XTransp. res., Part C Emerg. technol.162Estimation of the distribution of travel times by repeated simulationsHOLLANDER (Yaron)RONGHUI LIUSteer Davies Gleave, 28 Upper GroundLondon SE1 9PDGBR1 aut.Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, 38 University RoadLeeds LS2 9JTGBR2 aut.212-2312008ENGINIST12377C3540001750764200600000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.08-0358923PATransportation research. Part C, Emerging technologiesGBRIn recent years, the reliability of transport systems has been widely recognised as a key issue in transport planning and evaluation. To analyse the level of reliability we need information about the distribution of travel times. Transport analysts are in a serious need for tools to estimate this distribution in hypothetical scenarios, but there are currently few such tools. In this paper we raise the question of whether it is possible to look at the outputs of each single run of a traffic microsimulation model as estimates of traffic conditions on a single day, while accounting for the fact that randomness and heterogeneity are in the nature of traffic phenomena. If it is possible to establish an analogy between a single run and a single day, then the distribution of outputs between runs can be used as an estimate of the respective distribution in the real network. Investigating this issue is vital since many practitioners wrongly assume that such analogy can be taken for granted. We discuss here methodological, statistical and computational aspects that this question brings in, and illustrate them in a series of experiments, where a special procedure for calibrating the microsimulation model has a key role.001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Optimisation03Optimization03Optimización03Planification04Planning04Planificación04Système transport05Transportation system05Sistema de transporte05Durée trajet06Travel time06Duración trayecto06Distribution temporelle07Time distribution07Distribución temporal07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Etalonnage09Calibration09Contraste09Etude cas10Case study10Estudio caso10224PSIPSI 0033-8419RADLAXRadiology2481Estimating Long-term Effectiveness of Lung Cancer Screening in the Mayo CT Screening StudyMCMAHON (Pamela M.)CHUNG YIN KONGJOHNSON (Bruce E.)WEINSTEIN (Milton C.)WEEKS (Jane C.)KUNTZ (Karen M.)SHEPARD (Jo-Anne O.)SWENSEN (Stephen J.)GAZELLE (G. Scott)Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, 101 Merrimac St, 10th FloorBoston, MA 02114USA1 aut.2 aut.9 aut.Department of Radiology, Harvard Medical SchoolBoston, MassUSA1 aut.2 aut.7 aut.9 aut.Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical SchoolBoston, MassUSA3 aut.4 aut.5 aut.Lowe Center for Thoracic Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer InstituteBoston, MassUSA3 aut.Department of Medical Oncology/Population Sciences, Dana-Farber Cancer InstituteBoston, MassUSA4 aut.Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard School of Public HealthBoston, MassUSA4 aut.6 aut.9 aut.Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, University of MinnesotaMinneapolis, MinnUSA6 aut.Department of Radiology, Mayo ClinicRochester, MinnUSA8 aut.278-2872008ENGINIST61633540001979957703100000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.57 ref.08-0330266PARadiologyUSAPurpose: To use individual-level data provided from the single-arm study of helical computed tomographic (CT) screening at the Mayo Clinic (Rochester, Minn) to estimate the longterm effectiveness of screening in Mayo study participants and to compare estimates from an existing lung cancer stmulation model with estimates from a different modeling approach that used the same data. Materials :The study was approved by institutional review boards and was HIPAA compliant. Deidentified individual-level data from participants (1520 current or former smokers aged 50-85 years) in the Mayo Clinic helical CT screening study were used to populate the Lung Cancer Policy Model, a comprehensive microsimulation model of lung cancer development, screening findings, treatment results, and long-term outcomes. Tlie model predicted diagnosed cases of lung cancer and deaths per simulated study arm (five annual screening examinations vs no screening). Main outcome measures were predicted changes in lung cancerspecific and all-cause mortality as functions of follow-up time after simulated enrollment and randomization. Results: At 6-year follow-up, the screening arm had an estimated 37% relative increase in lung cancer detection, compared with the control arm. At 15-year follow-up, five annual screening examinations yielded a 9% relative increase in lung cancer detection. the relative reduction in cumulative lung cancer-specific mortality from five annual screening examinations was 28% at 6-year follow-up (15% at 15 years). The relative reduction in cumulative all-cause mortality from five annual screening examinations was 4% at 6-year follow-up (2% at 15 years). Conclusion: Screening may reduce lung cancer-specific mortality but may offer a smaller reduction in overall mortality because of increased competing mortality risks associated with smoking.002B24002B11A002B26Cancer du poumonNM01Lung cancerNM01Cáncer del pulmónNM01Tomodensitométrie04Computerized axial tomography04Tomodensitometría04Long terme07Long term07Largo plazo07Dépistage08Medical screening08Descubrimiento08Médecine nucléaire09Nuclear medicine09Medicina nuclear09Radiologie13Radiology13Radiología13Pathologie de l'appareil respiratoire37Respiratory disease37Aparato respiratorio patología37Pathologie des bronches38Bronchus disease38Bronquio patología38Pathologie des poumons39Lung disease39Pulmón patología39Tumeur maligneNM40Malignant tumorNM40Tumor malignoNM40CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMImagerie médicale41Medical imagery41Imaginería médica41Radiodiagnostic42Radiodiagnosis42Radiodiagnóstico42210OTOOTO 159Health expenditures growth : reassessing the threat of agingDORMONT (B.)GRIGNON (M.)HUBER (H.)947-963tabl.2006ENGBDSP/IRDESP1738800dissem.08-0328495PAHEALTH ECONOMICSGBRLa croissance des dépenses de santé : ré-évaluer la menace du vieillissementIn this paper, we evaluate the respective effects of demographic change, changes in morbidity and changes in practices on growth in health care expenditures. We use microdata, i.e. representative samples of 3441 and 5003 French individuals observed in 1992 and 2000. Our data provide detailed information about morbidity and allow us to observe three components of expenditures : ambulatory care, pharmaceutical and hospital expenditures. We propose an original microsimulation method to identify the components of the drift observed between 1992 and 2000 in the health expenditure age profile. On the one hand, we find empirical evidence of health improvement at a given age : changes in morbidity induce a downward drift of the profile. On the other hand, the drift due to changes in practices is upward and sizeable. Detailed analysis attributes most of this drift to technological innovation. After applying our results at the macroeconomic level, we find that the rise in health care expenditures due to ageing is relatively small. The impact of changes in practices is 3.8 times larger. Furthermore, changes in morbidity induce savings which more than offset the increase in spending due to population ageing002B30A11DépenseExpenditureGastoSantéHealthSaludPopulationPopulationPoblaciónSénescenceSenescenceSenescenciaPersonne âgéeElderlyAncianoCroissanceGrowthCrecimientoAgeAgeEdadInnovationInnovationInnovaciónTechnologieTechnologyTecnologíaMédecineMedicineMedicinaMédecinPhysicianMédicoPratique professionnelleProfessional practicePráctica profesionalAmbulatoireAmbulatoryAmbulatorioSoinCareCuidadoHôpitalHospitalHospitalMédicamentDrugMedicamentoEnquêteSurveyEncuestaEvaluationEvaluationEvaluaciónModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGHommeHumanHombreEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG210 0965-8564Transp. res., Part A Policy pract.422Validation of TASHA : A 24-h activity scheduling microsimulation modelROORDA (Matthew J.)MILLER (Eric J.)HABIB (Khandker M. N.)Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George StreetToronto, Ont., MSS IA4CAN1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.360-3752008ENGINIST12377A3540001750929100700000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.08-0300431PATransportation research. Part A, Policy and practiceGBRThe objective of this paper is to verify/validate the results of an application of the Travel Activity Scheduler for House-hold Agents (TASHA) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada. Activity generation and scheduling components of TASHA are validated using 1996 and 2001 travel survey data for the GTA. This validation proceeds in two parts: (a) verification that TASHA replicates the 1996 base case upon which the model was originally built; and (b) comparison of TASHA's forecasts of 2001 daily travel behaviour with observed travel survey data for 2001. TASHA activity generation and scheduling model components replicate observed activities with good accuracy and precision for the base year. Although TASHA is not able to predict an observed increase in activity participation rate in a five year forecast, the dis- tribution of activities in the day is forecast with greater success. Predictions of average travel distance are oversimulated in the base year by 0.9%. Increased average distances are underpredicted for school, shopping, and other activities, and are overpredicted for work and return home activities. These validation results are promising, although there exist opportunities to improve model performance, and to further validate other elements of the TASHA model.001D15A001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Ordonnancement02Scheduling02Reglamento02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Voyage04Travel04Viaje04Prévision demande05Demand forecasting05Previsión demanda05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Activité07Activity07Actividad07Validation08Validation08Validación08Demande transport09Transport demand09Demanda transporte09Etude méthode10Method study10Estudio método10Affectation trafic11Traffic assignment11Afectación tráfico11189PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1999Calibration of Microsimulation with Heuristic Optimization MethodsTraffic Flow Theory 2007JINGTAO MAHU DONGZHANG (H. Michael)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, 1 Shields AvenueDavis, CA 95616USA1 aut.Perteet, Inc., 2707 Colby Avenue, Suite 900Everett, WA 98201USA2 aut.School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, 1239 Siping RoadShanghai, 200092CHN3 aut.208-2172007ENGINIST10459B3540001618661202200000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.30 ref.08-0273559PATransportation research recordUSAModel calibration is a crucial step in building a reliable microscopic traffic simulation application because it serves as the additional check to ensure that the model parameters accurately reflect the local driving environment so that decisions made on the basis of these results will not be misinformed decisions. Because of its stochastic nature and complexity, the calibration problem, usually formulated as an optimization problem, is often solved by using heuristic methods. To date, calibration is still a time-consuming task because many adopted methods require many simulation runs in search of an optimal solution. Moreover, many aspects of the calibration problem are not fully understood and need further investigation. In this study, another heuristics calibration algorithm is developed on the basis of the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation scheme and applied to calibration of several networks coded in Paramics. The results indicate that the new heuristic algorithm can reach the same level of accuracy with considerably fewer iterations and computer processor time than other heuristic algorithms such as genetic algorithms and the trial-and-error iterative adjustment algorithm. Applications of all three heuristic methods in a northern California network also reveal that some model parameters affect the simulation results more significantly than others. These findings can help modelers better choose calibration methods and fine-tune key parameters.001D15C001D15BEcoulement trafic01Traffic flow01Flujo tráfico01Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Modèle microscopique04Microscopic model04Modelo microscópico04Etalonnage05Calibration05Contraste05Méthode heuristique06Heuristic method06Método heurístico06Optimisation07Optimization07Optimización07Modèle comportement08Behavior model08Modelo comportamiento08Conduite véhicule09Vehicle driving09Conducción vehículo09Application10Application10Aplicación10Réseau routier11Road network11Red carretera11CalifornieNG12CaliforniaNG12CaliforniaNG12Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG175PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1999Driver Heterogeneity in Car Following and Its Impact on Modeling Traffic DynamicsTraffic Flow Theory 2007OSSEN (Saskia)HOOGENDOORN (Serge P.)Transport and Planning Department, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 12628 CN DelftNLD1 aut.2 aut.95-1032007ENGINIST10459B3540001618661201100000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.15 ref.08-0273517PATransportation research recordUSAA dedicated trajectory data collection method using a helicopter enabled a range of in-depth empirical studies of car-following behavior. These studies found a high degree of heterogeneity in car-following behavior; that is, drivers' driving styles turned out to be highly different because different modeling approaches were needed to model these behaviors satisfactorily. Therefore the impact of heterogeneity in car following on modeling traffic dynamics is examined to gain insight into the effect of incorporating different types and degrees of heterogeneity in car-following behavior on the dynamics of a simulated traffic flow. The microsimulation approach that was adopted focused on two case studies: the first case study focused on heterogeneity in parameter values by comparing stability results for heterogeneous platoons and homogeneous platoons, which could in fact be seen as a solid preparation for the second case study. The second study was a simulation of a fixed stretch of road on which, from a certain point on, a speed limit was imposed for the drivers. In this case study the link between the empirical results and the simulations was strengthened as several types of heterogeneity (e.g., different model specifications for different drivers and different parameter settings and combinations of them) were explored and compared with the empirically estimated parameters. Both analyses show clear differences between simulations with homogeneous drivers and simulations with heterogeneous drivers.001D15C001D15BEcoulement trafic01Traffic flow01Flujo tráfico01Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Modèle dynamique04Dynamic model04Modelo dinámico04Hétérogénéité05Heterogeneity05Heterogeneidad05Trajectoire06Trajectory06Trayectoria06Collecte donnée07Data gathering07Recolección dato07Comportement08Behavior08Conducta08Conducteur véhicule09Vehicle driver09Conductor vehículo09Modèle empirique10Empirical model10Modelo empírico10Etude cas11Case study11Estudio caso11Résultat12Result12Resultado12Suivi de véhiculeCD96Car followingCD96175PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1999Bottleneck Identification and Calibration for Corridor Management PlanningTraffic Flow Theory 2007XUEGANG BANLIANYU CHUBENOUAR (Hamed)California Center for Innovative Transportation, University of California, Berkeley, 2105 Bancroft Way, Suite 300Berkeley, CA 94720-3830USA1 aut.3 aut.California Center for Innovative Transportation, University of California, Berkeley, 522 Social Science TowerIrvine, CA 92697-3600USA2 aut.40-532007ENGINIST10459B3540001618661200500000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.13 ref.08-0273515PATransportation research recordUSACorridor mobility improvements require a new approach to corridor management planning and operations. Recent investigations are aimed at improving the safety and efficiency of existing transportation systems by integrating state-of-the-art operational analysis (such as microsimulation) into more traditional corridor planning. One of the important elements in developing corridor management improvements is better bottleneck analysis. Such analyses play a crucial role in corridor management planning for both performance assessment and simulation model calibration. New approaches are proposed for bottleneck identification and calibration in simulation. Identification is conducted with percentile speeds based on data from multiple days. It turns out that this method is more appropriate for urban congested freeways than use of single-day data. The algorithm for bottleneck calibration represents the first attempt to rigorously calibrate bottlenecks in microsimulation. It is a three-step process-including visual assessment, bottleneck area matching, and detailed speed calibration-aiming to calibrate bottlenecks in three levels of detail. With the 1-880 corridor network in the San Francisco Bay Area of California, it has been shown that the identification method can adequately identify corridor bottlenecks; the calibration procedure complements and improves the current practice of simulation calibration.001D15B001D15CEcoulement trafic01Traffic flow01Flujo tráfico01Goulot étranglement02Bottleneck02Gollete estrangulamiento02Trafic routier03Road traffic03Tráfico carretera03Corridor04Corridor04Corredor04Planning gestion05Management planning05Programación gestión05Gestion trafic06Traffic management06Gestión tráfico06Identification07Identification07Identificación07Etalonnage08Calibration08Contraste08Analyse donnée09Data analysis09Análisis datos09Congestion trafic10Traffic congestion10Congestión tráfico10Exemple11Example11Ejemplo11CalifornieNG12CaliforniaNG12CaliforniaNG12Durée trajet13Travel time13Duración trayecto13Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG175PSIPSI 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1441Likelihood approximation by numerical integration on sparse gridsHEISS (Florian)WINSCHEL (Viktor)Department of Economics, University of Munich, Ludwigstr. 28 RG80539 MunichDEU1 aut.Department of Economics, University of Mannheim, L7, 3-568163 MannheimDEU2 aut.62-802008ENGINIST164603540001959329300300000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.08-0270654PAJournal of econometricsNLDThe calculation of likelihood functions of many econometric models requires the evaluation of integrals without analytical solutions. Approaches for extending Gaussian quadrature to multiple dimensions discussed in the literature are either very specific or suffer from exponentially rising computational costs in the number of dimensions. We propose an extension that is very general and easily implemented, and does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Monte Carlo experiments for the mixed logit model indicate the superior performance of the proposed method over simulation techniques.001A02H02N2001A02I01D001A02E02001A02E11Sciences économiques01Economic sciences01Ciencias económicas01Cubature02Cubature02Cubicación02Distribution statistique03Statistical distribution03Distribución estadística03Théorie approximation04Approximation theory04Analyse numérique05Numerical analysis05Análisis numérico05Méthode stochastique06Stochastic method06Método estocástico06Approximation numérique17Numerical approximation17Aproximación numérica17Intégration numérique18Numerical integration18Integración numérica18Maillage19Grid pattern19Celdarada19Fonction vraisemblance20Likelihood function20Función verosimilitud20Modèle économétrique21Econometric model21Modelo econométrico21Econométrie22Econometrics22Econometría22Intégrale23Integral23Integral23Solution analytique24Analytical solution24Solución analítica24Formule quadrature25Quadrature formula25Fórmula cuadratura25Implémentation26Implementation26Implementación26Méthode Monte Carlo27Monte Carlo method27Método Monte Carlo27Modèle mixte28Mixed model28Modelo mixto28Modèle logit29Logit model29Modelo logit29Simulation30Simulation30Simulación30Modèle simulation31Simulation model31Modelo simulación31Méthode statistique32Statistical method32Método estadístico32Estimation statistique33Statistical estimation33Estimación estadística33Analyse donnée34Data analysis34Análisis datos34Donnée économique35Economic data35Dato económico3565DxxINC7065D99INC7165D30INC7228XXINC7362P20INC7465D32INC7541A55INC7662E17INC7765C05INC78168OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2012Evaluation of Impacts of Open Road Tolling on Main-Line Toll PlazaFreeway operations and high-occupancy vehicle systems 2007KLODZINSKI (Jack)GORDIN (Eric)AL-DEEK (Haitham M.)Florida's Turnpike Enterprise, URS Corporation, P.O. Box 613069Ocoee, FL 34761USA1 aut.Transcore, P.O. Box 613069Ocoee, FL 34761USA2 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Central Florida, P.O. Box 162450Orlando, FL 32816-2450USA3 aut.72-832007ENGINIST10459B3540001619713000900000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.28 ref.08-0263951PATransportation research recordUSAImplementation of open road tolling (ORT) can provide better performance for a toll collection facility than the use of a conventional toll plaza design. Improvements have been sought to decrease toll transaction times so that drivers experience reduced delays or none at all. Although intelligent transportation systems technology such as automatic vehicle identification in the form of electronic toll collection (ETC) is a concept that has revolutionized toll collection, with the ever-increasing traffic volumes on toll facilities, more innovative methods such as ORT are being deployed. Agencies around the world have implemented ORT, and some have integrated express (high-speed) ETC lanes in their normal plaza design. A main-line toll plaza in Orlando, Florida, was renovated following an ORT design concept. The plaza was expanded to include express ETC lanes separated from the cash payment lanes by a barrier. Data were collected before construction, during construction, and after construction was completed. Analysis showed that average reduced delays for manual cash customers equaled 49.8% and for automatic coin machine customers, 55.3%; and the speed in the express ETC lanes increased by 57%. To evaluate the benefits further, forecast scenario results from a toll plaza microsimulation model, TPSIM, were analyzed with positive conclusions. An analysis of crash data showed a 22% drop in total crashes at the plaza and a 26% drop in the plaza's area of influence. This case study provided conclusive results that implementing ORT compared with using a conventional toll facility is beneficial for improving toll collection.001D15C001D15B001D14O05295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Route à péage02Toll road02Carretera peaje02Etude cas03Case study03Estudio caso03Etude impact04Impact study04Estudio impacto04Evaluation performance05Performance evaluation05Evaluación prestación05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06FlorideNG07FloridaNG07FloridaNG07Analyse avantage coût08Cost benefit analysis08Análisis coste beneficio08Etats-UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG168PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2035Evaluating Effects of Toll Strategies on Route Diversion and Travel Times for Origin-Destination Pairs in a Regional Transportation NetworkTraffic signal systems and regional transportation systems management 2007AL-DEEK (Haitham)RAVI CHANDRA (Srinivasa)EMAM (Emam B.)KLODZINSKI (Jack)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Central Florida, 4000 Central Florida BoulevardOrlando, FL 32816-2450USA1 aut.2 aut.Florida's Turnpike Enterprise, P.O. Box 613069Ocoee, FL 34761USA3 aut.4 aut.205-2152007ENGINIST10459B3540001619708002300000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.16 ref.08-0263851PATransportation research recordUSACongestion on freeway facilities is a growing menace. Interstate 4 (1-4) in the Central Florida region has been experiencing delays during peak hour; this has warranted research on traffic management strategies. The public, through the media, had proposed removing tolls on state toll roads to divert traffic from 1-4. A microsimulation model, Paramics, was used to examine the potential impact of this proposal. SR-417 is a relatively uncongested toll road alternative to 1-4. SR-528 is the east-west toll road connecting SR-417 and 1-4. Commuters on SR-417 have to travel 15 mi longer and pay $5 compared with no monetary cost on 1-4 for the same trip. The public and politicians are reluctant to toll 1-4 to relieve congestion. The results from the simulation indicated that under recurring congestion conditions on 1-4, removing tolls on SR-417 and SR-528 would not divert enough traffic from 1-4 because of the 15-mi advantage. Under incident and lane closure scenarios on 1-4 with toll reduction on SR-417 and SR-528, the travel time would increase on 1-4. This result would prompt some diversion, with volumes and travel times increasing on SR-417. It was concluded that the amount of traffic that would be diverted from 1-4 to the toll roads would not significantly relieve congestion on 1-4. When specific origin-destination pairs were analyzed, average travel time savings on 1-4 were only around 5 min. It was concluded that contrary to the media and public perception, toll reduction would only have a minimum impact on reducing 1-4 congestion.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Autoroute02Freeway02Autopista02Péage03Toll03Peaje03Durée trajet04Travel time04Duración trayecto04Transport régional05Regional transportation05Transporte regional05Réseau transport06Transportation network06Red transporte06Etude impact07Impact study07Estudio impacto07Congestion trafic08Traffic congestion08Congestión tráfico08Stratégie09Strategy09Estrategia09Méthodologie10Methodology10Metodología10Scénario11Script11Argumento11Réduction12Reduction12Reducción12Etalonnage13Calibration13Contraste13Etude comparative15Comparative study15Estudio comparativo15168PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2035VisSim-Based Genetic Algorithm Optimization of Signal TimingsTraffic signal systems and regional transportation systems management 2007STEVANOVIC (Aleksandar)MARTIN (Peter T.)STEVANOVIC (Jelka)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, 122 South Central Campus Drive, Rm. 104Salt Lake City, Utah 84112-0561USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.59-682007ENGINIST10459B3540001619708000700000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.21 ref.08-0263835PATransportation research recordUSAGenetic algorithm optimizations of traffic signal timings have been shown to be effective, continually outperforming traditional optimization tools such as Synchro and TRANSYT-7F. However, their application has been limited to scholarly research and evaluations. Only one tool has matured to a commercial deployment: direct CorSim optimization, a feature of TRANSYT-7F. A genetic algorithm formulation, VisSim-based genetic algorithm optimization of signal timings (VISGAOST), is presented; it builds on the best of the recorded methods by extending their capabilities. It optimizes four basic signal timing parameters with VisSim microsimulation as an evaluation environment. The program brings new optimization features not available in the direct CorSim optimization, such as the optimization of phasing sequences, multiple coordinated systems and uncoordinated intersections, fully actuated isolated intersections, and multiple time periods. The formulation has two features that enhance and reduce computational time: optimization resumption and parallel computing. The program has been tested on two VisSim networks: a hypothetical grid network and a real-world arterial of actuated-coordinated intersections in Park City, Utah. The results show that timing plans optimized by the genetic algorithm outperformed the best Synchro plans in both cases, reducing delay and stops by at least 5%.001D15C001D15B001D14O05295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Gestion trafic02Traffic management02Gestión tráfico02Optimisation03Optimization03Optimización03Timing04Timing04Timing04Algorithme génétique05Genetic algorithm05Algoritmo genético05Feu signalisation06Traffic lights06Semáforo06Evaluation performance07Performance evaluation07Evaluación prestación07168PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2019Method for Assessing Safety of Routes in a Road NetworkStatistical methods, safety data, analysis, and evaluation 2007DIJKSTRA (Atze)DROLENGA (Hans)VAN MAARSEVEEN (Martin)SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research, P.O. Box 10902260 BB LeidschendamNLD1 aut.2 aut.Centre for Transport Studies, University of Twente, P.O. Box 2177500 AE EnschedeNLD3 aut.82-902007ENGINIST10459B3540001619712201100000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.22 ref.08-0242746PATransportation research recordUSAIn the Netherlands, the concept of sustainably safe traffic is the leading vision in road safety policy and research. The main goal of a sustainably safe road transport system is to reduce the annual number of road accident casualties to a fraction of the current levels. Important requirements resulting from this vision are that trips follow safe roads as much as possible, trips be as short as possible, and the quickest and safest routes coincide. Modeling route choice will provide answers to the planning issues of sustainably safe traffic; however, the safety effects of these requirements constitute a totally different issue, which needs to be dealt with. The focus of this study is on the design of a method that enables the planner to determine the safety effects of existing route choice and the changes in route choice. A description of road safety can be made in various ways. When a microscopic model is used, conflicts between vehicles will be an integral part of the simulation. The outcome will be used to compare the types of conflicts in a given simulation with the types of conflicts that would be acceptable in a sustainably safe road environment, for example, conflicts with opposing vehicles should be minimized at high speed differentials. A so-called route diagram of each route can be checked according to a series of criteria, each representing requirements for a sustainably safe route choice. Each criterion of the route diagram contributes to the total safety level of a route by the number of demerit points scored by the criterion. The criteria are described and tested in a microsimulation of alternative routes in a synthetic road network.001D15C001D14O02295Sécurité trafic01Traffic safety01Seguridad tráfico01Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Réseau routier03Road network03Red carretera03Etude méthode04Method study04Estudio método04Evaluation05Evaluation05Evaluación05Pays-BasNG06NetherlandsNG06HolandaNG06Choix07Choice07Elección07Itinéraire08Route08Itinerario08Exigence09Requirement09Exigencia09Indicateur10Indicator10Indicador10Conflit11Conflict11Conflicto11Application12Application12Aplicación12EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG154PSIPSI Using Statistics Canada LifePaths Microsimulation Model to Project the Health Status of Canadian ElderlyLEGARE (J.)DECARIE (Y.)Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population. (S.E.D.A.P.). Hamilton.CAN2008-01ENGSEDAPHamilton19 p.tabl., fig.BDSP/IRDESEn ligne8800dissem.08-0209472LMCANUtilisation du modèle de microsimulation &dquot;LifePaths&dquot;, élaboré par Statistique Canada pour prévoir l'état de santé des personnes âgées canadiennesComplex population projections usually use microsimulation models ; in Canada, Statistics Canada has developed a global dynamic microsimulation model named LifePaths in the Modgen programming language to be used in policy research. LifePaths provides a platform to build on for our research program, conjointly with Dr Janice Keefe from Mount Saint Vincent University, on projections of the Canadian chronic homecare needs for the elderly up to 2031 and of the human resources required. Beside marital status, family networks and living arrangements, future health status of the elderly is a key variable, but an intricate one. Since health status transitions were previously conditioned only on age and sex, we will use here the current disability module of LifePaths with longitudinal data from Canada's National Population Health Survey (NPHS). These new health status transitions are considering other significant explicative variables like marital status, education etc. We will then present projections of future Canadian elderly by health status and a comparison with nine European countries for the Future Elderly Living Conditions in Europe (FELICIE) Research Program which has used the same approach. Our previous researches have shown the importance of future disability level for the management of an elderly society. The main output of the present paper would first produce, with new health scenarios, new estimates for Canada of elderly in poor health, for those aged 75 and over. Secondly, it would produce an interesting comparative analysis, useful especially for implementing new policies for the well-being of the Canadian elderly002B30A11Personne âgéeElderlyAncianoSantéHealthSaludA domicileAt homeA domicilioSoinCareCuidadoBesoinNeedNecesidadFacteur sociodémographiqueSociodemographic factorFactor sociodemográficoRessources humainesHuman capitalCapital humanoIncapacitéDisabilityIncapacidadProjection perspectivePerspective projectionProyección perspectivaSimulationSimulationSimulaciónEtude comparativeComparative studyEstudio comparativoCanadaNGCanadaNGCanadáNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGHommeHumanHombreAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG140 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2003Event-Driven Queue-Based Traffic Flow MicrosimulationTravel demand 2007CHARYPAR (David)AXHAUSEN (Kay W.)NAGEL (Kai)Institute for Transport Planning and Systems, Swiss Federal Institute of TechnologyZurichCHE1 aut.2 aut.Transport Systems Planning and Transport Telematics, Technical University of BerlinDEU3 aut.35-402007ENGINIST10459B3540001744906800500000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.23 ref.08-0183847PATransportation research recordUSASimulating traffic flow is an important problem in transport planning. The most popular simulation approaches for large-scale scenarios today are aggregated models. Unfortunately, these models lack temporal and spatial resolution. But microsimulations are interesting for traffic flow simulation, as they can accurately simulate features requiring both high temporal and high spatial resolution, including traffic jams and peak periods. However, most microscopic approaches involve high computational costs and expensive large computers to run them within a reasonable time. This work presents possibilities for reducing these costs by using a queue-based model and an event-driven approach jointly. The approach makes it possible to run large-scale scenarios with more than 1 million simulated person-days on networks with 10,000 links in less than 10 min on single CPU desktop computers present in most offices today.001D15BEcoulement trafic01Traffic flow01Flujo tráfico01File attente02Queue02Fila espera02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Etude méthode04Method study04Estudio método04Dynamique05Dynamics05Dinámica05Description système06System description06Descripción sistema06Outil logiciel07Software tool07Herramienta software07Résultat08Result08Resultado08112PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2003Dynamic Choice Model of Urban Commercial Activity Patterns of Vehicles and PeopleTravel demand 2007GLIEBE (John)COHEN (Ofir)HUNT (John Douglas)School of Urban Studies and Planning, Portland State University, P.O. Box 751-USPPortland, OR 97207-0751USA1 aut.Parsons Brinckerhoff, 303 Second Street, Suite 700 NorthSan Francisco, CA 94107-1317USA2 aut.Civil Engineering Department, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive North-westCalgary, Alberta T2N 1N4CAN3 aut.17-262007ENGINIST10459B3540001744906800300000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.19 ref.08-0183792PATransportation research recordUSAIntraurban commercial vehicle travel is a relatively underdeveloped aspect of urban travel demand modeling despite the large share of the weekday traffic stream represented by commercial movements. One problem is the proprietary nature of these data and the corresponding lack of behavioral understanding of how establishments schedule their trips. Even when such data have been made available, such as through establishment travel surveys, the large variation in firm size, commodities and services, and logistics practices makes it difficult to create a generalized decision framework. This work uses establishment survey data collected by the Ohio Department of Transportation to create an intraurban commercial vehicle model to be run in a disaggregate microsimulation environment and focuses on commercial movement patterns. The model generates entire daily patterns for workers who regularly travel as part of their jobs and creates tours through a dynamic choice process that incrementally builds tours, taking into consideration elapsed time and time of day in next-stop purpose and location choices. Activity durations are embedded in the utility equations of &dquot;stay&dquot; alternatives and provide internal consistency between the dimensions of activity purpose, duration, time of day, and location. Model formulation and estimation results are presented for the dynamic activity choice model component. The model system can reproduce observed commercial travel patterns found in the survey data and provide intuitively plausible interpretations for commercial travel behavior in the absence of more detailed knowledge of individual and firm operations.001D15C001D15BTransport routier01Road transportation01Transporte por carretera01Véhicule utilitaire02Commercial vehicle02Vehículo utilitario02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Choix04Choice04Elección04Demande transport05Transport demand05Demanda transporte05Transport interurbain06Interurban transportation06Transporte interurbano06Modèle dynamique07Dynamic model07Modelo dinámico07Affectation trafic08Traffic assignment08Afectación tráfico08Formulation09Formulation09Formulación09Localisation10Localization10Localización10112PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2003Land Use Scenario DevelopeR : Practical Land Use Model Using a Stochastic Microsimulation FrameworkTravel demand 2007GREGOR (Brian)Oregon Department of Transportation, Transportation Planning Analysis Unit, 555 13th Street Northeast, Suite 2Salem, OR 97301-4178USA1 aut.93-1022007ENGINIST10459B3540001744906801200000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.21 ref.08-0183791PATransportation research recordUSALand use models are generally recognized as useful tools for forecasting land use inputs to transportation models and for analyzing the land use effects of transportation projects. Unfortunately, the complexity of most land use models gets in the way of their widespread use by planning agencies. The Land Use Scenario DevelopeR (LUSDR) incorporates most of the land use behavior and policy sensitivity desired in a land use model, yet it has a simple structure and manageable data requirements. LUSDR operates at the level of individual households and employment establishments and microsimulates location decisions of land developments. The model produces a synthetic population of households with the attributes of size, workers, age of household head, income, dwelling tenure, and dwelling type. Households are packaged into residential developments. Employment is calculated from workers and allocated to economic sectors, employment establishments, and business developments (e.g., shopping centers, office parks). Residential and business developments are allocated to zones by an iterative process that identifies candidate zones on the basis of land availability and plan compatibility, chooses zones by using a location model and reconciles land supply and demand in each zone through a bidding process. The model is being used in a long-range land use visioning study in a small metropolitan planning organization and is planned for use in a number of applications in Oregon.001D15B001D14A06295Transports01Transportation01Transportes01Occupation sol02Land use02Ocupación terreno02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Modèle stochastique04Stochastic model04Modelo estocástico04Zone urbaine05Urban area05Zona urbana05Planification stratégique06Strategic planning06Planificación estratégica06Plan occupation sol07Land use plan07Plan ocupación suelo07Zone résidentielle08Residential zone08Zona residencial08Secteur commercial09Commercial sector09Sector comercial09112PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.2003Random Utility Location, Production, and Exchange Choice; Additive Logit Model; and Spatial Choice MicrosimulationsTravel demand 2007ABRAHAM (John E.)HUNT (J. D.)Institute for Advanced Policy Research, Schulich School of Engineering, University of CalgaryCalgary, Alberta, T2N 1 N4CAN1 aut.2 aut.1-62007ENGINIST10459B3540001744906800100000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.7 ref.08-0182574PATransportation research recordUSAA land use modeling system has been developed and applied on the basis of random utility theory. The system abstracts the decisions of the actors located in and traveling around a city or region as a series of logit models: (a) the choice of where to locate the home; (b) the choice of technology, lifestyle, or production option, being the choice of the quantities of &dquot;commodities&dquot; (consisting of goods, services, labor, and space categories) to consume or produce and hence what interactions will occur; and (c) the location of the &dquot;exchange&dquot; (transaction or interaction) for each commodity consumed or produced (i.e., for each interaction). These logit models can be combined in a nesting structure, but an additive logit formulation is required because the exchange choices are not mutually exclusive. The additive logit model, which is developed by combining the central limit theorem with random utility theory, can be applied to any choice situation in which several independent choices are conditional on a higher level choice. The resulting choice probabilities can be applied in an aggregate allocation system (as in software for the Production Exchange Consumption Allocation System, PECAS) and result in supply-and-demand equations for each commodity in each exchange that can be solved for a short-term equilibrium. In future research, microsimulation versions of the system could allow a fully integrated and dynamic representation of land use-transport interactions.001D15BEconomie transport01Economy of transports01Economía transporte01Demande transport02Transport demand02Demanda transporte02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Modèle logit04Logit model04Modelo logit04Occupation sol05Land use05Ocupación terreno05Théorie utilité06Utility theory06Teoría utilidad06Choix07Choice07Elección07Localisation08Localization08Localización08Caractéristique dynamique09Dynamic characteristic09Característica dinámica09112PSIPSI 0045-5067CJFRARCan. j. for. res. : (Print)371Tactical supply chain planning in the forest products industry through optimization and scenario-based analysisBEAUDOIN (Daniel)LEBEL (Luc)FRAYRET (Jean-Marc)Laboratoire d'Opérations Forestières, Faculté de Foresterie et de Géomatique, Pavillon Abitibi-Price, Université LavalQuébec, QC G1K 7P4CAN1 aut.Département de Science du Bois et de la Forêt, Faculté de Foresterie et de Géomatique, Pavillon Abitibi-Price, Université LavalQuébec, QC G1K 7P4CAN2 aut.Départment de mathématiques et génie industriel, École polytechnique de Montréal, 2500, chemin de PolytechniqueMontréal, QC H3T 1J4CAN3 aut.128-1402007ENGfreINIST198643540001495974701200000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.08-0170163PACanadian journal of forest research : (Print)CANCet article présente un modèle qui utilise la programmation linéaire mixte pour résoudre le problème de planification tactique des approvisionnements forestiers d'une entreprise propriétaire de plusieurs usines. Le modèle permet les échanges de bois entre compagnies. Les flux de matériaux à travers le réseau d'approvisionnement sont dictés tant par la demande à satisfaire (stratégie en flux tirés) que par un mécanisme de marché (stratégie en flux poussés). Ces stratégies permettent de tenir compte de la fraîcheur du bois et de la notion de qualité associée à l'âge du bois dans les demandes de billots, de copeaux et de produits finis. L'incapacité de considérer l'implantation de plans alternatifs et la difficulté d'évaluer la performance de ces plans dans un environnement incertain sont deux points faibles d'un processus manuel de planification. Un processus de planification permettant de surmonter ces lacunes est présenté. Ce processus est basé sur les interactions entre une personne et un système d'aide à la décision. Il combine les méthodes Monte Carlo et un mécanisme d'anticipation qui permet à l'entreprise de tenir compte des coûts associés au déplacement des équipements. Le processus de planification proposé prend la forme d'un problème de prise de décision multicritère pour lequel le planificateur sélectionne un plan à implanter parmi un ensemble de plans candidats. Une étude de cas démontre qu'il est possible de gérer le flux de bois de la forêt jusqu'au marché, de manière à préserver sa fraîcheur et extraire plus de valeur des billots transformés aux usines. Aussi, les résultats d'une simulation démontrent que le processus de planification proposé permet d'augmenter les profits de 8,8 % en moyenne par rapport à une approche basée sur un modèle déterministe utilisant la valeur moyenne des paramètres. Finalement, une analyse de sensibilité révèle que la précision de l'inventaire des volumes sur pied présents sur les parterres de coupe et l'anticipation des conditions de marché sont les paramètres les plus importants pour établir un bon plan d'approvisionnement.001D10C01AEntreprise industrielle01Industrial firm01Empresa industrial01Usine bois02Wood works02Fabrica madera02Approvisionnement03Supply03Aprovisionamiento03Logistique04Logistics04Logística04Planification05Planning05Planificación05Analyse multicritère06Multicriteria analysis06Análisis multicriterio06Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Optimisation08Optimization08Optimización08Simulation statistique09Statistical simulation09Simulación estadística09Produit forestier10Forest product10Producto de la selva10Méthode Monte CarloINC68Modèle économétriqueINC69Modèle mixteINC70Prise de décisionINC71Programmation linéaireINC72Système aide décisionINC73Gestion chaîne logistiqueCD96Supply chain managementCD96Gestión de la cadena logísticaCD96Industrie forestièreCD97Forest products industryCD97Industria forestalCD97Planification tactiqueCD98Tactical planningCD98Planificación tácticaCD98Scénario (modélisation)CD99Scenario (modeling)CD99Scenario (modelización)CD99Economie forestière31Forest economics31Economía forestal31Economie industrielle32Industrial economy32Economía industrial32Econométrie33Econometrics33Econometría33Filière bois34Wood line34Microéconomie35Microeconomy35Microeconomía35Recherche opérationnelle36Operations research36Investigación operacional36Foresterie64Forestry64Ciencias forestales64Industrie bois65Wood industry65Industria madera65Sciences économiques66Economic sciences66Ciencias económicas66Economie mathématiqueINC81Gestion systèmeINC82Mathématiques appliquéesINC84Méthode statistiqueINC85Modèle mathématiqueINC86105 0191-2615TRBMDYTransp. res., Part B : methodol.419Tour-based microsimulation of urban commercial movementsBehavioural insights into the modelling of freight transportation and distribution systemsHUNT (J. D.)STEFAN (K. J.)HENSHER (David)ed.FIGLIOZZI (Miguel Andres)ed.Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NWCalgary, Alberta T2N 1N4CAN1 aut.Transportation Planning Business Unit, The City of Calgary, P. 0. Box 2100, Station MCalgary, Alberta T2P 2M5CAN2 aut.Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, Faculty of Economics and Business, The University of SydneyAUS1 aut.2 aut.981-10132007ENGINIST12377B3540001498397800400000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.08-0166598PATransportation research. Part B : methodologicalGBRA system for modelling commercial movements has been developed for Calgary in Canada. The result is a representation that is novel in this context, including a tour-based microsimulation of individual vehicle movements that provides a wide-ranging and detailed representation and yet avoids explicit consideration of shipments and the related complexities regarding the conversion of commodity flows to shipments, the allocation of shipments to vehicles or routings and the treatment of less-than-load movements and empty vehicles. This development effort drew on the data obtained in a set of surveys collecting information on the roughly 37000 tours and 185000 trips (within these tours) made in the Calgary Region by commercial vehicles on a typical weekday in 2001. The resulting system of models includes an agent-based microsimulation framework, using a tour-based approach, based on what has been learned from the data. It accounts for truck routes, responds to related policy and provides insight into aspects of commercial vehicle movements. All types of commercial vehicles are represented, including light vehicles, heavier single unit and multi-unit configurations. All sectors of the economy are incorporated, including retail, industrial, service and wholesaling. This modelling system is integrated with an aggregate equilibrium model of household-related travel, with the microsimulation processes done in external Java applications.001D15B001D15CTransport marchandise01Freight transportation01Transporte mercadería01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Modèle logit03Logit model03Modelo logit03Services04Services04Véhicule utilitaire05Commercial vehicle05Vehículo utilitario05Itinéraire06Route06Itinerario06Transport urbain07Urban transportation07Transporte urbano07Mouvement08Motion08Movimiento08Livraison10Delivery (good)10Entrega10CanadaNG11CanadaNG11CanadáNG11Producteur trafic12Trip generator12Productor tráfico12Type véhicule13Vehicle type13Tipo vehículo13Véhicule routier14Road vehicle14Vehículo caminero14Localisation15Localization15Localización15Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG105PSIPSI 0033-8419RADLAXRadiology2463Breast Cancer Screening in BRCA1 Mutation Carriers : Effectiveness of MR Imaging Markov Monte Carlo Decision AnalysisLEE (Janie M.)KOPANS (Daniel B.)MCMAHON (Pamela M.)HALPET (Elkan F.)RYAN (Paula D.)WEINSTEIN (Milton C.)GAZELLE (G. Scott)Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, 101 Merrimac St, 10th FloorBoston, MA 02114USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.7 aut.Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, 101 Merrimac St, 10th FloorBoston, MA 02114USA1 aut.3 aut.4 aut.7 aut.Division of Hematology/Oncology, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, 101 Merrimac St, 10th FloorBoston, MA 02114USA5 aut.Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard School of Public HealthBoston, MassUSA6 aut.7 aut.763-7712008ENGINIST61633540001836023101000000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.40 ref.08-0162408PARadiologyUSAPurpose: To project intermediate and long-term clinical outcomes of magnetic resonance (MR) imaging screening for breast cancer in women with BRCA1 gene mutations. Materials and A microsimulation model was developed to compare three Methods: annual screening strategies versus clinical surveillance: (a) mammography, (b) MR imaging, and (c) combined MR imaging and mammography. Input parameters were obtained from the published medical literature, existing data-bases, and expert opinion. The model was calibrated to targets from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Resuits database (1975-1980) compiled during a period prior to the onset of widespread mammographic screening. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of uncertainty in parameter estimates. With clinical surveillance, the estimated median diameter of invasive breast cancers at presentation was 2.6 cm. Average life expectancy was 71.15 years. With annual screening with mammography, MR imaging, or combined mammography and MR imaging, median invasive tumor diameters at diagnosis decreased to 1.9,1.3, and 1.1 cm, respectively. Annual screening with mammography, MR imaging, or combined mammography and MR imaging increased average life expectancy by 0.80 year, 1.10 years, and 1.38 years, respec- 0 tively, and decreased relative mortality from breast cancer (16.8%, 17.2%, and 22.0%, respectively). Program sensitivity was greater than 50% only with MR imaging screening strategies. The majority of women undergoing screening had one or more false-positive screening examinations (53.8%, 80.2%, and 84.0% for mammography, MR imaging, and A combined mammography and MR imaging, respectively). Many women also underwent one or more biopsies for benign disease (11,3%, 26.3%, and respectively). Results were sensitive to BRCA 1 penetrance estimates and to MR imaging sensitivity in the detection of ductal carcinoma m situ. Conclusion: Annual screening with combined mammography and MR imaging provides BRCA1 mutation carriers with the greatest life expectancy gain and breast cancer mortality reduction. However, an important trade-off of this strategy is an increased rate of false-positive screening results and biopsies performed for benign disease.002B20E02002B28C002B24Cancer du seinNM01Breast cancerNM01Cáncer del pechoNM01Imagerie RMN04Nuclear magnetic resonance imaging04Imaginería RMN04Dépistage07Medical screening07Descubrimiento07Mutation08Mutation08Mutación08Analyse décision09Decision analysis09Análisis decisión09Médecine nucléaire13Nuclear medicine13Medicina nuclear13Radiologie14Radiology14Radiología14Tumeur maligneNM37Malignant tumorNM37Tumor malignoNM37CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNMPathologie de la glande mammaireNM38Mammary gland diseasesNM38Glándula mamaria patologíaNM38Imagerie médicale39Medical imagery39Imaginería médica39Pathologie du seinNM40Breast diseaseNM40Seno patologíaNM40098OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1994From Aggregate Methods to Microsimulation : Assessing Benefits of Microscopic Activity-Based Models of Travel DemandCrosscutting techniques for planning and analysis 2007LEMP (Jason D.)MCWETHY (Laura B.)KOCKELMAN (Kara M.)Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, 6.9 E. Cockrell Jr. Hall, University of Texas at AustinAustin, TX 78712-1076USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.80-882007ENGINIST10459B3540001738762301100000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.21 ref.08-0121386PATransportation research recordUSATwo competing approaches to travel demand modeling exist today. The more traditional four-step travel demand models rely on aggregate demographic data at a traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level. Activity-based microsimulation methods use more robust behavioral theory while focusing on individuals and households. Although the vast majority of U.S. metropolitan planning organizations continue to rely on traditional models, many modelers believe that activity-based approaches promise greater predictive capability, more accurate forecasts, and more realistic sensitivity to policy changes. Little work has examined in detail the benefits of activity-based models relative to more traditional approaches. To understand better the trade-offs between these two methodologies, results produced by both were modeled in an Austin, Texas, application. Three scenarios are examined: a base scenario, a scenario with expanded capacity along two key freeways, and a centralized-employment scenario. Results of the analysis revealed several differences in model performance and accuracy in terms of replicating travel survey and traffic count data. Such distinctions largely emerged through differing model assumptions. In general, activity-based models were more sensitive to changes in model inputs, supporting the notion that aggregate models ignore important behavioral distinctions across the population. However, they involved more effort and care in data manipulation, model calibration, and application to mimic behavioral processes better at a finer resolution. Such efforts help ensure that synthetic populations match key criteria and that activity schedules match surveyed behaviors, while being realistic and consistent across household members.001D15BDemande transport01Transport demand01Demanda transporte01Modèle simulation02Simulation model02Modelo simulación02Modèle microscopique03Microscopic model03Modelo microscópico03Activité04Activity04Actividad04Modèle agrégé05Aggregate model05Modelo agregado05Méthodologie06Methodology06Metodología06Scénario07Script07Argumento07Analyse donnée08Data analysis08Análisis datos08Etude comparative09Comparative study09Estudio comparativo09070PSIPSI 0003-4975ATHSAKAnn. thorac. surg.852Does Previous Percutaneous Coronary Stenting Compromise the Long-Term Efficacy of Subsequent Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery? A Microsimulation StudyRAO (Christopher)DE LISLE STANBRIDGE (Rex)CHIKWE (Joanna)PEPPER (John)SKAPINAKIS (Petros)AZIZ (Omer)DARZI (Ara)ATHANASIOU (Thanos)Department of Biosurgery and Surgical Technology, Imperial College LondonGBRDepartment of Cardiothoracic Surgery, St. Mary's HospitalLondonGBRDepartment of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Mount Sinai HospitalNew York, New YorkUSADepartment of Cardiothoracic Surgery, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, Royal Brompton HospitalLondonGBRDepartment of Psychiatry, University of Ioannina School of MedicineloanninaGRC501-5072008ENGINIST137793540001619164602200000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.39 ref.08-0117172PAThe Annals of thoracic surgeryUSABackground. This study aims to compare long-term survival and health-related quality of life in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery with and without previous coronary stenting. Methods. Markov microsimulation was used to model long-term survival and quality of life after surgical revascularization using data from referenced sources. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to investigate the effect of uncertainty associated with the model parameters on the microsimulation results. Results. Percutaneous coronary stenting was found to significantly decrease the effectiveness of coronary surgery. The model suggests that after a single stenting procedure ten-year survival was reduced by 3.3% (SD 0.7%), from 79.9% (SD 1.3%) to 76.6% (SD 1.4%). Similarly, after multiple stenting procedures ten-year survival was reduced by 3.5% (SD 0.7%) to 76.4% (SD 1.4%). Over a ten-year period a single stenting procedure reduced the quality adjusted life year (QALY) payoff by 0.25 QALY (SD 0.11 QALY) and multiple stenting procedures reduced the QALY payoff by 0.27 QALY (SD 0.08 QALY). Conclusions. This study suggests that patients who undergo surgical bypass after stenting have worse long-term outcomes than patients who undergo surgical revascularization without previous percutaneous intervention. The pathophysiological mechanisms for this are not fully understood and must be further investigated. The findings of this study suggest that the timing of surgical bypass in relation to percutaneous intervention is important. This may have significant implications for clinical practice, suggesting that greater emphasis should be placed on selecting the optimum initial revascularization strategy.002B11002B12A03002B27002B26ECardiopathie coronaire01Coronary heart disease01Cardiopatía coronaria01Voie percutanée09Percutaneous route09Vía percutánea09Artère coronaire10Coronary artery10Arteria coronaria10Stent11Stent11Stent11Dilatation instrumentale12Instrumental dilatation12Dilatación instrumental12Long terme13Long term13Largo plazo13Efficacité14Efficiency14Eficacia14Anesthésie15Anesthesia15Anestesia15Appareil circulatoire16Circulatory system16Aparato circulatorio16Cardiologie17Cardiology17Cardiología17Traitement instrumental78Instrumentation therapy78Tratamiento instrumental78Pontage coronarienCD96Coronary artery bypassCD96Puente aorto coronarioCD96Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire37Cardiovascular disease37Aparato circulatorio patología37Chirurgie cardiaqueINC86063OTOOTO 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy359Swedish industry and Kyoto- : An assessment of the effects of the European CO₂ emission trading systemBRÄNNLUND (Runar)LUNDGREN (Tommy)Department of Forest Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural SciencesUmedSWE1 aut.2 aut.Department of Economics, Umed UniversityUmedSWE1 aut.Department of Business, School of Business and Economics, Umed UniversityUmedSWE2 aut.4749-47622007ENGINIST164173540001615358803100000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.08-0095992PAEnergy policyGBRWe assess the effects on Swedish industry input demands and output of different climate policy scenarios connected to energy policy induced by the Kyoto protocol. We use a unique dataset containing firm-level data on outputs and inputs between 1991 and 2001 to estimate a factor demand model, which we use to simulate different policy scenarios. Sector-specific estimation suggests that the proposed quadratic profit function specification exhibits properties and robustness that are consistent with economic theory; that is, all own-price elasticities are negative and all output elasticities are positive. Furthermore, the elasticities show that the input demands are, in most cases, relatively inelastic. Simulation of the model for six different policy scenarios reveal that effects on the Swedish base industry of a EU-level permit-trading system depends on (i) the removal or maintenance of the current CO₂ tax, (ii) the price of permits, and (iii) the future price of electricity. Our analysis shows that changes in electricity price may be more important than the price of permits for some sectors.001D06A01B001D06A01C1001D00D230Politique énergétique01Energy policy01Política energética01Politique environnement02Environmental policy02Política medio ambiente02Permis émission03Emission permit03Permiso de emisión03Dioxyde de carboneNKFX04Carbon dioxideNKFX04Carbono dióxidoNKFX04Impact économique05Economic impact05Impacto económico05Secteur secondaire06Secondary sector06Sector secundario06Production07Production07Producción07Emission polluant08Pollutant emission08Emisión contaminante08Bénéfice09Profit09Beneficio09Combustible10Fuel10Combustible10Electricité11Electricity11Electricidad11Investissement12Investment12Inversión12Travail13Work13Trabajo13Répartition coût14Cost breakdown14Repartición coste14Scénario15Script15Argumento15Modèle économétrique16Econometric model16Modelo econométrico16Equilibre économique17Economic equilibrium17Equilibrio económico17Partiel18Partial18Parcial18SuèdeNG19SwedenNG19SueciaNG19EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG052 0035-9254APSTAGAppl. stat.571A marginalized diffusion model for estimating age at first lower endoscopy use from current status dataMIGLIORETTI (Diana L.)BROWN (Elizabeth R.)Group Health Center for Health StudiesSeattleUSA1 aut.University of WashingtonSeattleUSA2 aut.61-742008ENGINIST2097C3540001739781200400000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/2 p.08-0089063PAApplied statisticsGBRWe propose an approach for estimating the age at first lower endoscopy examination from current status data that were collected via two series of cross-sectional surveys. To model the national probability of ever having a lower endoscopy examination, we incorporate birth cohort effects into a mixed influence diffusion model. We link a state-specific model to the national level diffusion model by using a marginalized modelling approach. In future research, results from our model will be used as microsimulation model inputs to estimate the contribution of endoscopy examinations to observed changes in colorectal cancer incidence and mortality.001A02H02N001A02G04Loi marginale17Marginal distribution17Ley marginal17Estimation statistique18Statistical estimation18Estimación estadística18Etude transversale19Cross sectional study19Estudio transversal19Sondage statistique20Sample survey20Ecuesta estadística20Probabilité21Probability21Probabilidad21Loi probabilité22Probability distribution22Ley probabilidad22Modèle mixte23Mixed model23Modelo mixto23Mortalité24Mortality24Mortalidad24Statistique25Statistics25Estadística25Application26Application26Aplicación2658A25INC70052OTOOTO 0886-4470AONSEJArch. otolaryngol. head neck surg.13312Cost-effective Management of Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid CarcinomaPresentations from the American Head & Neck Society 2007 Annual Meeting, April 28-29, 2007, San Diego, CaliforniaSHRIME (Mark G.)GOLDSTEIN (David P.)SEABERG (Raewyn M.)SAWKA (Anna M.)ROTSTEIN (Lorne)FREEMAN (Jeremy L.)GULLANE (Patrick J.)Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, University of Toronto Health NetworkCAN1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.7 aut.Princess Margaret HospitalTorontoCAN1 aut.Department of Endocrinology and Medicine, University of Toronto Health NetworkCAN4 aut.Surgery, University of Toronto Health NetworkCAN5 aut.Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Mt Sinai HospitalToronto, OntarioCAN6 aut.American Head and Neck SocietyLos Angeles, CAUSAorg-cong.1245-12532007ENGINIST30413540001744362400900000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.54 ref.08-0087126PCAArchives of otolaryngology, head & neck surgeryUSAObjective: To compare the 20-year cost-effectiveness of initial hemithyroidectomy vs total thyroidectomy in the management of small papillary thyroid cancer in the low-risk patient. Design: Pooled data from the published literature were used to determine key statistics for decision analysis such as rates of recurrence, rates of complications for all interventions undertaken, and rates of death. The 2005 costs were obtained from the US Department of Health and Human Services, as well as from Medicare reimbursement schedules. Future costs were discounted at 6%. Setting: Decision analysis study. Patients: Data from the published literature. Main Outcome Measures: A state-transition (Markov) decision model was constructed based on the most recent American Thyroid Association recommendations. A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using fixed probability estimates and Monte Carlo microsimulation, with effectiveness defined as cause-specific mortality or recurrence-free survival. After identifying initial results, sensitivity and threshold analyses were performed to assess the strength of the recommendations. Results: Initial probability estimates were determined from a review of 940 abstracts and 31 relevant studies examining outcomes in patients with low-risk thyroid cancer undergoing thyroidectomy or neck dissection. During 20 years, cost estimates (including initial surgery, follow-up, and treatment of recurrence) were between $13 896.81 and $14241.24 for total thyroidectomy and between $15037.58 and $15063.75 for hemithyroidectomy. Cause-specific mortality was similar for both treatment strategies, but recurrence-free survival was higher in the total thyroidectomy group. Sensitivity and threshold analyses demonstrated that these results were sensitive to rates of recurrence and cost of follow-up but remained robust when compared with willingness to pay. Conclusions: Total thyroidectomy dominates over hemithyroidectomy as initial treatment for low-risk papillary thyroid cancer. However, in sensitivity analyses, these results varied by institution because of heterogeneity in long-term treatment outcomes. With changing protocols of management, it is possible that hemithyroidectomy will emerge as being more cost-effective. Long-term prospective trials are necessary to validate our findings.002B10002B21C02002B21C01Carcinome papillaire de la thyroïdeNM01Papillary thyroid carcinomaNM01Carcinoma papilar de la tiroidesNM01Traitement04Treatment04Tratamiento04Coût07Costs07Coste07Economie santé08Health economy08Economía salud08Facteur risque09Risk factor09Factor riesgo09Risque13Risk13Riesgo13Endocrinopathie37Endocrinopathy37Endocrinopatía37Pathologie de la thyroïde38Thyroid diseases38Tiroides patología38Tumeur maligneNM39Malignant tumorNM39Tumor malignoNM39CancerNMCancerNMCáncerNM052OTOOTOAmerican Head and Neck Society. Annual MeetingSan Diego, CA USA2007-04-28 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy353A longitudinal study of fallow dynamics in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS)KEMP (Alexander G.)KASIM (Sola A.)Department of Economics, Aberdeen University School of Business, Dunbar Street, Old AberdeenAberdeen AB24 3QYGBR1 aut.2 aut.1744-17602007ENGINIST164173540001454873003000000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.08-0038651PAEnergy policyGBRThis paper identifies the causes of and solutions to the problems posed by the fallow assets' phenomenon in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS). Using data available in the public domain, including the Fifth Fallow Release, the province's assets were grouped into two broad cross-sections of fallow and non-fallow assets, with further sub-divisions. The dependent variable of interest was the median fallow duration of the assets. Fallow duration was measured in two ways, namely those relating to censored and uncensored data. An empirical panel econometric model was formulated, estimated and simulated to establish the principal causal factors and the effective remedial policy measures. The model estimation results provide evidence that the interactive effects of the key influencing variables are stronger than their individual effects. Thus, the combined effects of reserves and distance from infrastructure have a greater weight on the fallow spell than their individual effects. Several policy simulation runs established that, contrary to some theoretical propositions, (a) stronger rather than weaker government intervention, on occasion, is preferable, and (b) price is not a central determinant of investment timing.001D06A01C2B230Champ pétrole01Oil field01Campo petróleo01Forage02Drilling02Sondeo02Découverte03Discoveries03Descubierta03Exploitation04Exploitation04Explotación04Jachère05Fallow05Barbecho05Durée06Duration06Duración06Plateforme continentale07Continental shelf07Plataforma continental07Royaume-UniNG08United KingdomNG08Reino UnidoNG08Modèle économétrique09Econometric model09Modelo econométrico09Scénario10Script10Argumento10Politique financière11Financial policy11Política financiera11Simulation12Simulation12Simulación12Concession13Legal settlement13Concesión13Economie pétrolière14Oil economy14Economía petrolera14EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG021 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy353Are US utility standby rates inhibiting diffusion of customer-owned generating systems?JACKSON (Jerry)Texas A&M University, 3137 TAMUCollege Station, TX 77843USA1 aut.1896-19082007ENGINIST164173540001454873004200000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.08-0030091PAEnergy policyGBRNew, small-scale electric generation technologies permit utility customers to generate some of their own electric power and to utilize waste heat for space heating and other applications at the building site. This combined heat and power (CHP) characteristic can provide significant energy-cost savings. However, most current US utility regulations leave CHP standby rate specification largely to utility discretion resulting in claims by CHP advocates that excessive standby rates are significantly reducing CHP-related savings and inhibiting CHP diffusion. The impacts of standby rates on the adoption of CHP are difficult to determine; however, because of the characteristically slow nature of new technology diffusion. This study develops an agent-based microsimulation model of CHP technology choice using cellular automata to represent new technology information dispersion and knowledge acquisition. Applying the model as an n-factorial experiment quantifies the impacts of standby rates on CHP technologies under alternative diffusion paths. Analysis of a sample utility indicates that, regardless of the likely diffusion process, reducing standby rates to reflect the cost of serving a large number of small, spatially clustered CHP systems significantly increases the adoption of these technologies.001D06A01C4001D06A01A230Production autonome énergie01On site energy production01Producción autónoma energía01Production énergie électrique02Electric power production02Producción energía eléctrica02Production combinée03Cogeneration03Producción combinada03Echelle petite04Small scale04Escala pequeña04Secteur domestique05Residential sector05Sector doméstico05Pénétration marché06Market penetration06Penetración mercado06Obstacle07Obstacle07Obstáculo07Compagnie électricité08Electric utility08Compañía electricidad08Système avec réserve10Standby system10Sistema con reserva10Etats-UnisNG11United StatesNG11Estados UnidosNG11Modèle simulation13Simulation model13Modelo simulación13Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG052 1524-9050IEEE Trans. intell. transp. syst.83Microsimulation of freeway ramp merging processes under congested traffic conditionsSARVI (Majid)KUWAHARA (Masao)Institute of Transport Studies, Department of Civil Engineering, Monash UniversityClayton, Vic. 3800AUS1 aut.Kuwahara Laboratory, Institute of Industrial Science, University of TokyoTokyo 153-8505JPN2 aut.470-4792007ENGINIST270613540001497901800800000© 2008 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.42 ref.08-0014469PAIEEE Transactions on intelligent transportation systemsUSAThis paper describes a microsimulation program developed to study freeway ramp merging phenomena under congested traffic conditions. The results of extensive macroscopic and microscopic studies are used to establish a model for the behavior of merging drivers. A theoretical framework for modeling the ramp and freeway lag driver acceleration-deceleration behavior guided the model development. This methodology uses the stimuli-response psychophysical concept as a fundamental rule and is formulated as a modified form of the conventional car-following models. Data collected at the two merging points are used to calibrate the hypothesized ramp and freeway lag vehicle acceleration models. Drawing on this behavioral model, the Freeway Merging Capacity Simulation Program (FMCSP) is developed to simulate actual traffic conditions. This model evaluates the capacity of a merging section for a given geometric design and flow condition. Validation of FMCSP is performed using the observed flow, vehicle trajectories, and lane-changing maneuvers. The simulation model is applied to investigate a variety of merging strategies. The results indicated that the FMCSP is capable of simulating the actual traffic conditions of congested freeway ramp merging sections and will aid in the development of traffic management strategies for complex freeway ramp merging areas.001D15A001D02D11Automobile06Motor car06Automóvil06Trajectoire07Trajectory07Trayectoria07Analyse comportementale08Behavioral analysis08Análisis conductual08Autoroute18Freeway18Autopista18Trafic routier19Road traffic19Tráfico carretera19Condition opératoire20Operating conditions20Condición operatoria20Modèle comportement21Behavior model21Modelo comportamiento21Psychophysiologie22Psychophysiology22Psicofisiología22Modélisation23Modeling23Modelización23Poursuite modèle24Model following24Seguimiento modelo24Programme simulation25Simulation program25Programa simulación25Modèle géométrique26Geometrical model26Modelo geométrico26Validation27Validation27Validación27Gestion trafic41Traffic management41Gestión tráfico41009OTOOTO 0004-0894403Size matters : the role of scale in geographies of health. Special sectionPROCTER (K.L.)ed.SMITH (D.M.)ed.303-364fig., tabl.2008ENGengINTG8200dissem.08-0507792PAArea (London)GBRCinq articles. 1. Signification de l'intérêt personnel dans la géographie de l'invalidité (N. Worth). 2. Le comportement alimentaire des enfants : importance de l'institution familiale (N. Kime). 3. Micro-analyse de l'obésité chez l'enfant, régime alimentaire, activité physique, variables socio-économiques résidentielles et de capital social : où se trouvent les environnements propices à l'obésité à Leeds ? (K.L. Procter, G.P. Clarke, J.K. Ransley, J. Cade). 4. Géographie du tabagisme à Leeds : estimation des taux individuels de tabagisme et implications pour la localisation des services pour arrêter de fumer (M.N. Tomintz, G.P. Clarke, J.E. Rigby). 5. Etude de l'accès à des services de généralistes dans l'Irlande rurale : analyse de microsimulation (K. Morrissey, G. Clarke et alii)531103IV531Santé56301Health56301Géographie médicale56302Medical geography56302Echelle56303Scale56303InvaliditéNI04DisabilityNI04Alimentation56305Food56305ObésitéNIINC06TabagismeNIINC07Comportement56308Behaviour56308Services de santé56309Medical services56309Royaume-UniNG22United KingdomNG22U101!02,03!08,06,07,22U222!02,03!08,06,07329 0733-9488JUPDDMJ. urban plann. dev.1332Impacts of bus rapid transit lanes on traffic and commuter mobilityPATANKAR (Vaishali M.)KUMAR (Rakesh)TIWARI (Geetam)ScholarGainesville, FLUSA1 aut.Univ. of Petroleum and Energy StudiesDehradunIND2 aut.Dept. of Civil Engineering, Transportation Research and Injury Prevention Programme, Indian Institute of TechnologyDelhiIND3 aut.99-1062007ENGINIST572T3540001496417600300000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.07-0532444PAJournal of urban planning and developmentUSAImplementing bus rapid transit (BRT) raises many challenging issues of technical, operational, and institutional nature. The present study sets the groundwork for a methodology that can be used to selectively target corridor for BRT modeling in India. Traffic quality parameters, such as traffic flow, speed, travel time, delay time, stop time, and fuel consumption, were modeled to investigate the impact of BRT as compared to present day mixed traffic on traffic and commuter mobility. A microsimulation traffic model was developed for BRT and mixed traffic systems. A developed microscopic model was validated with field measured data using statistical methods and was found good against measured data. A dedicated lane-based public transport system shows the promising results and has to play a significant role in developing sustainable transport systems. These findings can be used to form the basis for developing public transport corridor in present Indian traffic conditions.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier urbain01Urban road traffic01Tráfico vial urbano01Gestion trafic02Traffic management02Gestión tráfico02Autobus03Bus03Autobus03IndeNG04IndiaNG04IndiaNG04Evaluation projet05Project evaluation05Evaluación proyecto05Implémentation06Implementation06Implementación06Méthodologie07Methodology07Metodología07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Analyse statistique09Statistical analysis09Análisis estadístico09Transport public10Public transportation10Transporte público10Transport privé11Private transportation11Transporte prívado11Bicyclette12Bicycle12Bicicleta12AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG344PSIPSI 1435-5930J. geogr. syst.94Combining microsimulation and spatial interaction models for retail location analysisNAKAYA (Tomoki)FOTHERINGHAM (A. Stewart)HANAOKA (Kazumasa)CLARKE (Graham)BALLAS (Dimitris)YANO (Keiji)Department of Geography, Ritsumeikan UniversityKyotoJPN1 aut.3 aut.6 aut.National Centre for Geocomputation, John Hume Building, National University of Ireland-MaynoothMaynooth, KildareIRL2 aut.School of Geography, University of LeedsLeeds LS2 9JTGBR4 aut.Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Winter StreetSheffield S10 2TNGBR5 aut.345-3692007ENGINIST269503540001617168900200000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.3/407-0524234PAJournal of geographical systemsDEUAlthough the disaggregation of consumers is crucial in understanding the fragmented markets that are dominant in many developed countries, it is not always straightforward to carry out such disaggregation within conventional retail modelling frameworks due to the limitations of data. In particular, consumer grouping based on sampled data is not assured to link with the other statistics that are vital in estimating sampling biases and missing variables in the sampling survey. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a useful combination of spatial interaction modelling and microsimulation approaches for the reliable estimation of retail interactions based on a sample survey of consumer behaviour being linked with other areal statistics. We demonstrate this approach by building an operational retail interaction model to estimate expenditure flows from households to retail stores in a local city in Japan, Kusatsu City.001E01J02224B02Modèle01models01Modelo01Fragment02fragments02Fragmento02Marché03markets03Mercado03Statistique04statistics04Estadística04Echantillonnage05sampling05Muestreo05Levé06surveys06Bâtiment07buildings07Edificio07Segmentation08segmentation08JaponNG61JapanNG61JapónNG61Extrême OrientNGFar EastNGExtremo OrienteNGAsieAsiaAsia344OTOOTO 0315-1468CJCEB8Can. j. civ. eng. : (Print)341An optimal downsampling procedure for microscopic simulation modeling of transportation networks : a proof-of-concept studyALECSANDRU (Ciprian)ISHAK (Sherif)YAN ZHANGDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Louisiana State UniversityBaton Rouge, LA 70803USA1 aut.2 aut.DMJM+HARRIS, 2833 Brakley Dr., Suite BBaton Rouge, LA 70816USA3 aut.89-982007ENGfreINIST167483540001495975400900000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3/4 p.07-0497369PACanadian journal of civil engineering : (Print)CANCet article étudie et démontre le concept de variabilité dimensionnelle des systèmes de microsimulation de la circulation comme moyen de réduire les exigences computationnelles requises et maximiser leur soutien potentiel pour les fonctions de contrôle et de gestion de la circulation en temps réel. L'objectif principal de cette recherche est d'examiner la faisabilité de transformer l'environnement de simulation original en un environnement de simulation sous-échantillonné, dans lequel moins d'entités représentatives sont simulées. Cela doit cependant être réalisé en maintenant un maximum de fidélité aux propriétés de microsimulation et en préservant la majorité des caractéristiques macroscopiques. La méthodologie est présentée sous forme d'un problème d'optimisation dont l'objectif est de minimiser les erreurs découlant du processus de transformation et de rechercher les valeurs optimales des paramètres comportementaux dans un environnement sous-échantillonné. À cette étape de validation de concept, une analyse expérimentale a été effectuée sur un segment d'autoroute homogène en utilisant l'un des modèles bien connus, et on pourrait dire suffisamment étalonné, de suivi des véhicules développé par les laboratoires de General Motors (GM3). Les résultats sont prometteurs et indiquent que des relations optimales entre les paramètres comportementaux dans les deux environnements peuvent être établies pour minimiser la perte d'information associée au processus de transformation.001D14O01001D14C03295Réseau transport01Transportation network01Red transporte01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Optimisation03Optimization03Optimización03Sous échantillonnage04Subsampling04Submuestreo04Modèle simulation05Simulation model05Modelo simulación05Extensibilité06Scalability06Estensibilidad06Efficacité07Efficiency07Eficacia07Méthodologie08Methodology08Metodología08Modèle mathématique09Mathematical model09Modelo matemático09Formulation10Formulation10Formulación10Etude expérimentale11Experimental study11Estudio experimental11Valeur efficace12Root mean square value12Valor eficaz12Analyse sensibilité13Sensitivity analysis13Análisis sensibilidad13Performance14Performance14Rendimiento14Suivi de véhiculeCD96Car followingCD96323PSIPSI 0360-5442ENEYDSEnergy : (Oxford)3211Generation of synthetic sequences of electricity demand : Application in South AustraliaMAGNANO (L.)BOLAND (J. W.)Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes Boulevard, Mawson LakesAdelaide, South Australia 5095AUS1 aut.2 aut.2230-22432007ENGINIST168093540001497964601800000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.22 ref.07-0494834PAEnergy : (Oxford)GBRWe have developed a model to generate synthetic sequences of half-hourly electricity demand. The generated sequences represent possible realisations of electricity load that could have occurred. Each of the components included in the model has a physical interpretation. These components are yearly and daily seasonality which were modelled using Fourier series, weekly seasonality modelled with dummy variables, and the relationship with current temperature described by polynomial functions of temperature. Finally the stochastic component was modelled with autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. These synthetic sequences were developed for two purposes. The first one is to use them as input data in market simulation software. The second one is to build probability distributions of the outputs to calculate probabilistic forecasts. As an application several summers of half-hourly electricity demand were generated and from them the value of demand that is not expected to be exceeded more than once in 10 years was calculated.001D06A01C4001D06A01A230Electricité01Electricity01Electricidad01Australie MéridionaleNG02South AustraliaNG02Australia meridionalNG02Demande03Demand03Petición03Variation saisonnière04Seasonal variation04Variación estacional04Température05Temperature05Temperatura05Modèle économétrique06Econometric model06Modelo econométrico06Série Fourier07Fourier series07Serie Fourier07Modèle ARMA08ARMA model08Modelo ARMA08Analyse régression09Regression analysis09Análisis regresión09Prévision10Forecasting10Previsión10Vérification modèle11Model checking11Verificación modelo11Demi-heureINC72AustralieNGAustraliaNGAustraliaNGOcéanieNGOceaniaNGOceaniaNG323 0277-0180OPEC rev.313Residential energy demand : a case study of KuwaitELTONY (M. Nagy)AL-AWADHI (Mohammad A.)Department of the Industrial Bank of KuwaitKWT1 aut.Public Authority for Applied Education and TrainingINC2 aut.159-1682007ENGINIST193123540001616585500100000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.07-0485470PAOPEC reviewGBRThis paper models and estimates energy demand by the household sector using the top-down or the two-level approach. The discussion has been developed to include a breakdown of household consumption by fuel type. It also simulates the developed model under three scenarios and presents analyses of the results. The empirical results indicate that short and long run energy consumption and the level of economic activity are interrelated. The model simulation shows that energy consumption varies directly with economic growth. It also illustrates that an increase of 200 per cent in all nominal energy prices will lead to a reduction in household energy demand of 29 per cent by the year 2015. The simulation results clearly demonstrate that the potential for energy conservation exists in Kuwait in the household sector and particularly in the consumption of electricity. Moreover, inter-fuel substitution will be in favour of electricity when energy prices increase.001D06A01C4001D06A01C2B001D06A01B230Consommation énergie01Energy consumption01Consumo energía01Secteur domestique02Residential sector02Sector doméstico02KoweitNG03KuwaitNG03KuwaytNG03Electricité04Electricity04Electricidad04Produit pétrolier05Petroleum product05Producto petrolero05Consommation électricité06Electric power consumption06Consumo electricidad06Consommation combustible07Fuel consumption07Consumo combustible07Modèle économétrique08Econometric model08Modelo econométrico08Prévision09Forecasting09Previsión09Demande énergie10Energy demand10Demanda energía10Long terme11Long term11Largo plazo11Scénario12Script12Argumento12Fixation prix13Pricing13Fijación precios13GPL14LPG14GPL14Kérosène15Kerosene15Queroseno15AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG316 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1402Modeling and calculating the effect of treatment at baseline from panel outcomesCHIB (Siddhartha)JACOBI (Liana)John M. Olin School of Business, Campus Box 1133, Washington University in St. Louis, 1 Brookings DrSt. Louis, MO 63130USA1 aut.Department of Economics, The University of MelbourneVictoria 3010AUS2 aut.781-8012007ENGINIST164603540001500641501700000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.07-0439891PAJournal of econometricsNLDWe propose and examine a panel data model for isolating the effect of a treatment, taken once at baseline, from outcomes observed over subsequent time periods. In the model, the treatment intake and outcomes are assumed to be correlated, due to unobserved or unmeasured confounders. Intake is partly determined by a set of instrumental variables and the confounding on unobservables is modeled in a flexible way, varying both by time and treatment state. Covariate effects are assumed to be subject-specific and potentially correlated with other covariates. Estimation and inference is by Bayesian methods that are implemented by tuned Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Because our analysis is based on the framework developed by Chib [2004. Analysis of treatment response data without the joint distribution of counterfactuals. Journal of Econometrics, in press], the modeling and estimation does not involve either the unknowable joint distribution of the potential outcomes or the missing counterfactuals. The problem of model choice through marginal likelihoods and Bayes factors is also considered. The methods are illustrated in simulation experiments and in an application dealing with the effect of participation in high school athletics on future labor market earnings.001A02H02N2001A02H02G001A02H01J001A02I01QMéthode stochastique01Stochastic method01Método estocástico01Distribution statistique02Statistical distribution02Distribución estadística02Théorie approximation03Approximation theory03Analyse numérique04Numerical analysis04Análisis numérico04Sciences économiques05Economics05Ciencias económicas05Efficacité traitement17Treatment efficiency17Eficacia tratamiento17Analyse corrélation18Correlation analysis18Análisis correlación18Covariable19Covariate19Covariable19Estimation statistique20Statistical estimation20Estimación estadística20Estimation Bayes21Bayes estimation21Estimación Bayes21Implémentation22Implementation22Implementación22Chaîne Markov23Markov chain23Cadena Markov23Méthode Monte Carlo24Monte Carlo method24Método Monte Carlo24Analyse donnée25Data analysis25Análisis datos25Loi conjointe26Joint distribution26Ley conjunta26Fonction répartition27Distribution function27Función distribución27Modèle économétrique28Econometric model28Modelo econométrico28Econométrie29Econometrics29Econometría29Donnée manquante30Missing data30Dato que falta30Loi marginale31Marginal distribution31Ley marginal31Simulation32Simulation32Simulación32Marché travail33Labour market33Mercado trabajo33Méthode statistique34Statistical method34Método estadístico34Donnée économique35Economic data35Dato económico3562F15INC7060J10INC7165C40INC7262E17INC7365C05INC7462-07INC7560E05INC7662P20INC77Estimation paramétriqueINC78Effet traitementCD96Treatment effectCD96Donnée panelCD97Panel dataCD97Variable instrumentaleCD98Instrumental variableCD98Vraisemblance marginaleCD99Marginal likelihoodCD99288OTOOTO 0022-5223JTCSAQJ. thorac. cardiovasc. surg.1343Usefulness of microsimulation to translate valve performance into patient outcome : Patient prognosis after aortic valve replacement with the Carpentier-Edwards supra-annular valveVAN GELDORP (Martijn W. A.)ERIC JAMIESON (W. R.)PIETER KAPPETEIN (A.)PUVIMANASINGHE (John P. A.)EIJKEMANS (Marinus J. C.)GRUNKEMEIER (Gary L.)TAKKENBERG (Johanna J. M.)BOGERS (Ad J. J. C.)Department of Cardio-thoracic Surgery, Erasmus University Medical CenterRotterdamNLD1 aut.3 aut.4 aut.7 aut.8 aut.University of British ColumbiaVancouverCAN2 aut.Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical CenterRotterdamNLD5 aut.Providence Health SystemPortland, OreUSA6 aut.702-7092007ENGINIST97473540001608337102400000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.27 ref.07-0434032PAJournal of thoracic and cardiovascular surgeryUSAObjective: Numerous reports have been published documenting the results of aortic valve replacement. It is often not easy to translate these outcomes involving the condition of the valve into the actual consequences for the patient. We previously developed an alternative method to study outcome after aortic valve replacement that allows direct estimation of patient outcome after aortic valve replacement: microsimulation modeling. The goal of this article is to provide insight into microsimulation methodology and to give an overview of the advantages and disadvantages of simulation methods (in particular microsimulation) in comparison with standard methods of outcome analysis. Methods: By using a primary dataset containing 1847 patients and 14,429 patient-years, advantages and disadvantages of standard methods of outcome analysis are discussed, and the potential role of microsimulation is illustrated by means of a step-by-step explanation of building, testing, and using such a model. Results: Total life expectancy, event-free life expectancy, and reoperation-free life expectancy for a 65-year-old male patient were 10.6 years, 9.2 years, and 9.8 years, respectively. Lifetime risk of reoperation due to structural valve deterioration was 13.3%. Conclusions: Microsimulation is capable of providing accurate estimates of age-related life expectancy and lifetime risk of reoperation for patients who underwent aortic valve replacement with the Carpentier-Edwards supra-annular valve. It provides a useful tool to facilitate and optimize the choice for a specific heart valve prosthesis in a particular patient.002B25ESoupape09Valve09Válvula09Evaluation performance10Performance evaluation10Evaluación prestación10Performance11Performance11Rendimiento11Homme12Human12Hombre12Malade13Patient13Enfermo13Evolution14Evolution14Evolución14Pronostic15Prognosis15Pronóstico15Valvule aortique16Aortic valve16Válvula aórtica16Chirurgie17Surgery17Cirugía17Valvule cardiaque18Heart valve18Válvula cardíaca18Coeur19Heart19Corazón19Thorax20Thorax20Tórax20Traitement78Treatment78Tratamiento78288OTOOTO 0272-6386Am. j. kidney dis.503Should hemodialysis patients with atrial fibrillation undergo systemic anticoagulation? A cost-utility analysisQUINN (Robert R.)NAIMARK (David M. J.)OLIVER (Matthew J.)BAYOUMI (Ahmed M.)Department of Medicine, Division of Nephrology, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of TorontoCAN1 aut.2 aut.Medicine and Health Policy Management and Evaluation, University of TorontoCAN2 aut.4 aut.Chronic Dialysis, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael Hospital, University of TorontoTorontoCAN3 aut.Centre for Research on Inner City Health, The Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael Hospital, University of TorontoTorontoCAN4 aut.421-4322007ENGINIST190983540001497410000800000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.40 ref.07-0431030PAAmerican journal of kidney diseasesUSABackground: Approximately 14% of hemodialysis patients have atrial fibrillation. Hemodialysis patients with atrial fibrillation appear to be at increased risk of both thromboembolic complications and bleeding. Furthermore, there is uncertainty regarding the efficacy of warfarin or acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) therapy for preventing strokes in this subgroup because they were excluded from relevant trials. Study Design: We performed a cost-utility analysis. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to incorporate parameter uncertainty into the model. Expected value of perfect information and scenario analyses were performed to identify the important drivers of the decision and focus future research. Setting & Population: Base case was a 60-year-old male hemodialysis patient in the United States. Model, Perspective, & Time Frame: A Markov Monte Carlo microsimulation model was constructed from the perspective of the health care payer, and patients were followed up during their lifetime. Intervention: We compared 3 alternative treatment strategies for permanent atrial fibrillation in hemodialysis patients: warfarin, ASA, or no treatment. Outcomes: Quality-adjusted survival and cost. Results: ASA and warfarin both prolonged survival compared with no treatment (0.06 and 0.15 quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs], respectively). ASA was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $82,100/QALY. Warfarin provided additional benefits at a cost of $88,400 for each QALY gained relative to ASA. At a threshold of $100,000/QALY, the probabilities that no treatment, warfarin, and ASA were the most efficient therapy were 20%, 58%, and 23%, respectively. Limitations: Parameterization data and costs were taken from US studies and may not be generalizable to other countries. Peritoneal dialysis patients were not included in the analysis. Conclusions: The high future cost of hemodialysis constrains incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to values greater than commonly cited thresholds ($50,000/QALY). Based on available evidence, warfarin appears to be the optimal therapy to prevent thromboembolic stroke in hemodialysis patients with atrial fibrillation. Additional study is required to determine the efficacy of warfarin and risk of bleeding complications in this population so that patients can make a more informed choice.002B14002B27B03Hémodialyse02Hemodialysis02Hemodiálisis02Homme03Human03Hombre03Fibrillation auriculaire05Atrial fibrillation05Fibrilación auricular05Disséminé06Disseminated06Diseminado06Systémique08Systemic08Sistémico08Anticoagulant09Anticoagulant09Anticoagulante09Traitement11Treatment11Tratamiento11Analyse coût efficacité12Cost efficiency analysis12Análisis costo eficacia12Economie santé17Health economy17Economía salud17WarfarineNKFRFFFX18WarfarinNKFRFFFX18WarfarinaNKFRFFFX18Urologie19Urology19Urología19NéphrologieCD96NephrologyCD96NefrologíaCD96Epuration extrarénale37Extrarenal dialysis37Depuración extrarrenal37Appareil circulatoire pathologie38Cardiovascular disease38Aparato circulatorio patología38Cardiopathie39Heart disease39Cardiopatía39Trouble excitabilité40Excitability disorder40Trastorno excitabilidad40Trouble rythme cardiaque41Arrhythmia41Arritmia41Antivitamine K42Antivitamin K42Antivitamina K42Coumarine dérivéFR43Coumarine derivativesFR43281OTOOTO 1279-653013Evaluation économique de règles de traitement sélectif au tarissement selon les contextes épidémiologiques de santé des mamelles en troupeaux laitiers : étude par simulation13es rencontres autour des recherches sur les ruminants : Paris, 6-7 décembre 2006SEEGERS (H.)ROBERT (A.)BILLON (D.)ROUSSEL (P.)SERIEYS (F.)LE GUENIC (M.)BAUDET (H.)HEUCHEL (V.)BAREILLE (N.)UMR 708 ENVN-INRA Gestion de la Santé Animale, BP 4070644307 NantesFRA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.9 aut.ARILAIT Recherches, 42 rue de Chateaudun 42 rue de Châteaudun75314 ParisFRA2 aut.Institut de l'Elevage, 9 rue André Brouard, BP 7051049105 AngersFRA4 aut.8 aut.Filière Blanche, 12 Quai Duguay Trouin35000 RennesFRA5 aut.Chambres d'Agriculture de Bretagne, Technopôle Atalante-Champeaux, CS 1422635042 RennesFRA6 aut.Contrôle Laitier Sarthe, C.L.A.S.E.L. 72, 126 rue de Beauge72018 Le MansFRA7 aut.INRAParisFRAorg-cong.Institut de l'élevageParisFRAorg-cong.435-4382006FREeng2-84148-250-2INIST260723540001535497119300000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.07-0417180PCARencontres recherches ruminantsFRAAssessment of economic worth of rules for selective drying-off treatment according to the udder health epidemiological context of dairy cow herds : a simulation study[...] Un modèle bio-économique de simulation de troupeau laitier a été adapté pour évaluer des stratégies et règles de choix des vaches traitées sous différents contextes épidémiologiques. Le modèle est dynamique, stochastique (pour simuler l'occurrence et les effets des infections intra-mammaires), individu-centré et mécaniste (représentation de tous les individus). Les résultats présentés ici montrent que, pour des situations plutôt fortement dégradées avec prédominance d'infections par Staphyloccocus aureus ou Streptococcus, les stratégies de traitements sélectif avec une règle de traitement à partir de 100 000 cellules/ml au dernier contrôle laitier ou combinant une règle à 150 000 cellules/ml avec l'application d'un obturateur pour les vaches non traitées constituent des alternatives a priori économiquement neutres ou intéressantes par rapport au traitement systématique et compatibles avec la réduction de l'emploi d'antibiotiques.[...]002A36C03Vache01Cow01Vaca01Bovin laitier02Dairy cattle02Ganado de leche02Troupeau03Herd03Rebaño03Glande mammaire04Mammary gland04Glándula mamaria04Santé animale05Animal health05Sanidad animal05Mastite06Mastitis06Mastitis06Epidémiologie07Epidemiology07Epidemiología07Etat sanitaire08Health status08Estado sanitario08Epoque traitement09Application time09Epoca tratamiento09Modalité traitement10Application method10Modalidad tratamiento10Règle décision11Decision rule11Regla decisión11Règle sélection12Selection rule12Regla selección12Sélectivité13Selectivity13Selectividad13Impact économiqueINC14Analyse microéconomique15Microeconomic analysis15Análisis microeconómico15Evaluation16Evaluation16Evaluación16Simulation numérique17Numerical simulation17Simulación numérica17FranceNG18FranceNG18FranciaNG18Approche mécanisteINC19ModélisationINC20Modèle économétriqueINC21Modèle simulation22Simulation model22Modelo simulación22Modèle dynamiqueINC23Modèle phénoménologiqueINC24Modèle stochastiqueINC25AntibiotiqueINC26Lait vacheINC28Staphylococcus aureusINC29StreptococcusINC30Période de tarissementCD96Dry period (lactation)CD96Período de secado (lactación)CD96BoeufOxBueyArtiodactylaNSArtiodactylaNSArtiodactylaNSUngulataNSUngulataNSUngulataNSMammaliaNSMammaliaNSMammaliaNSVertebrataNSVertebrataNSVertebrataNSEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGAnimal ruminant31Ruminant animal31Animal rumiante31BovinINC32HerbivoreINC33Animal élevage34Farming animal34Animal cría34Animal laitier35Dairy animal35Animal lechero35FemelleINC36Population animaleINC37Glande mammaire pathologieNM38Mammary gland diseasesNM38Glándula mamaria patologíaNM38Analyse économiqueINC39BiomathématiqueINC40EconométrieINC41Economie agricole42Agricultural economics42Economía agricola42Modèle mathématiqueINC43Production animaleINC44ZoopathogèneINC45Europe OuestINC46Zone tempéréeINC59Médecine vétérinaire64Veterinary medicine64Medicina veterinaria64Zootechnie65Zootechny65Zootecnia65Sciences animalesCD97Animal sciencesCD97Ciencia animalCD97267Rencontres autour des recherches sur les ruminants13Paris FRA2006 0098-7484JAMA j. Am. Med. Assoc.2986Cost-effectiveness of bone densitometry followed by treatment of osteoporosis in older menSCHOUSBOE (John T.)TAYLOR (Brent C.)FINK (Howard A.)KANE (Robert L.)CUMMINGS (Steven R.)ORWOLL (Eric S.)MELTON (L. Joseph III)BAUER (Douglas C.)ENSRUD (Kristine E.)Park Nicollet Health Services, University of MinnesotaUSA1 aut.Divisions of Health Policy and Management, University of MinnesotaUSA1 aut.4 aut.Center for Chronic Disease Outcomes ResearchUSA2 aut.3 aut.9 aut.Epidemiology, University of MinnesotaUSA3 aut.9 aut.Geriatric Research Education and Clinical CenterUSA3 aut.Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Department of Medicine, Veterans Administration Medical CenterMinneapolis, MinnesotaUSA3 aut.9 aut.School of Public Health, and Clinical Outcomes Research Center, University of MinnesotaUSA4 aut.San Francisco Coordinating Center, California Pacific Medical Center Research InstituteUSA5 aut.Department of Medicine, Oregon Health Sciences UniversityPortlandUSA6 aut.Division of Epidemiology, Mayo Clinic College of MedicineRochester, MinnesotaUSA7 aut.Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, University of California at San FranciscoSan FranciscoUSA8 aut.629-6372007ENGINIST50513540001466441200400000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.61 ref.07-0395565PAJAMA, the journal of the American Medical AssociationUSAContext Osteoporotic fractures are common among elderly men. Objective To evaluate among older men the cost-effectiveness of bone densitometry followed by 5 years of oral bisphosphonate therapy to prevent fractures for those found to have osteoporosis (femoral neck T score <-2.5), compared with no intervention. Design, Setting, and Population Computer Markov microsimulation model using a societal perspective and a lifetime horizon. Simulations were performed for hypothetical cohorts of white men aged 65, 70, 75, 80, or 85 years, with or without prior clinical fracture. Data sources for model parameters included the Rochester Epidemiology Project for fracture costs and population-based age-specific fracture rates; the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study and published meta-analyses for the associations among prior fractures, bone density, and incident fractures; and published studies of fracture disutility. Main Outcome Measures Costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for the densitometry and follow-up treatment strategy compared with no intervention, calculated from lifetime costs and accumulated QALYs for each strategy. Results Lifetime costs per QALY gained for the densitometry and follow-up treatment strategy were less than $50 000 for men aged 65 years or older with a prior clinical fracture and for men aged 80 years or older without a prior fracture. These results were most sensitive to oral bisphosphonate cost and fracture reduction efficacy, the strength of association between bone mineral density and fractures, fracture rates and disutility, and medication adherence. Conclusions Bone densitometry followed by bisphosphonate therapy for those with osteoporosis may be cost-effective for men aged 65 years or older with a self-reported prior clinical fracture and for men aged 80 to 85 years with no prior fracture. This strategy may also be cost-effective for men as young as 70 years without a prior clinical fracture if oral bisphosphonate costs are less than $500 per year or if the societal willingness to pay per QALY gained is $100 000.002B01002B15AOstéoporose01Osteoporosis01Osteoporosis01Analyse coût efficacité02Cost efficiency analysis02Análisis costo eficacia02Economie santé03Health economy03Economía salud03Traitement05Treatment05Tratamiento05Homme06Human06Hombre06Mâle08Male08Macho08Personne âgée09Elderly09Anciano09Médecine11Medicine11Medicina11OstéodensitométrieCD96OsteodensitometryCD96OsteodensitometríaCD96Système ostéoarticulaire pathologie37Diseases of the osteoarticular system37Sistema osteoarticular patología37253OTOOTO 0198-9715CEUSD5Comput., environ. urban syst.312Spatial microsimulation modelling for retail market analysis at the small-area levelHANAOKA (Kazumasa)CLARKE (Graham P.)Department of Geography, Ritsumeikan University, 56-1, Toji-in KitamachiKita-ku, Kyoto 603-8577JPN1 aut.School of Geography, University of Leeds, Woodhouse LaneLeeds LS2 9JTGBR2 aut.162-1872007ENGINIST201923540001433735700600000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/407-0385328PAComputers, environment and urban systemsGBRThe purpose of this study is to construct a spatial microsimulation model known as the spatial microsimulation approach for retail market analysis (SMARMA) in order to analyse the retail market at the small-area level in Kusatsu City, Shiga Prefecture, Japan. In this study, we focus on examining the following issues. First, we attempt to create synthetic household microdata from a consumer questionnaire survey using both reweighting and imputation approaches. Second, we present the manner in which the results of the spatial microsimulation model are used for market analysis with regard to grocery stores. Market shares, turnover ranking and detailed consumer characteristics for selected stores are examined. In particular, the spatial distributions of households and their shopping behaviour are discussed in order to identify variations in consumer characteristics. As a result, this study shows that a spatial microsimulation model can generate detailed and reliable synthetic microdata from a consumer questionnaire survey. Besides, it is confirmed that this model is a highly relevant approach for implementing market analysis at the small-area level.001D14A06001D14I04C001D14C03295Zone urbaine01Urban area01Zona urbana01Magasin commercial02Store02Tienda comercial02Répartition spatiale03Spatial distribution03Distribución espacial03JaponNG04JapanNG04JapónNG04Modèle simulation05Simulation model05Modelo simulación05Analyse spatiale06Spatial analysis06Análisis espacial06Vente au détail07Retail marketing07Venta menudeo07Etude marché08Market survey08Estudio mercado08Ménage09Household09Familia09Recuit simulé10Simulated annealing10Recocido simulado10Ville11Town11Ciudad11Comportement12Behavior12Conducta12Enquête13Survey13Encuesta13Questionnaire14Questionnaire14Cuestionario14AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG253PSIPSI 1462-0324Rheumatol. : (Oxf. Print)468Cost effectiveness of adalimumab for the treatment of ankylosing spondylitis in the United KingdomBOTTEMAN (M. F.)HAY (J. W.)LUO (M. P.)CURRY (A. S.)WONG (R. L.)VAN HOUT (B. A.)Pharmerit North America LLCBethesda, MDUSA1 aut.University of Southern CaliforniaLos Angeles, CAUSA2 aut.Abbott LaboratoriesAbbott Park, ILUSA3 aut.Abbott LaboratoriesBerksGBR4 aut.Abbott LaboratoriesParsippany, NJUSA5 aut.University Medical Centre UtrechtUtrechtNLD6 aut.1320-13282007ENGINIST145283540001499725902100000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.33 ref.07-0379563PARheumatology : (Oxford. Print)GBRObjectives. This study evaluated the cost effectiveness of adalimumab vs conventional therapy in patients with active ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Methods. The analysis was based on pooled data from two Phase III studies of adalimumab in active AS. Patients with an inadequate response to ≥1 NSAID received adalimumab 40 mg every other week (n = 246) or placebo (n = 151) for 24 weeks. A microsimulation model was developed with patients being treated with adalimumab according to the International ASAS Consensus Statement and BSR guidelines. The pooled adalimumab data, as well as data from the Outcome Assessment in AS International Study (OASIS) database and the literature, were used to model patients' BASDAI and BASFI scores and costs and health-related quality of life associated with various degrees of disease activity. Costs (in 2004 British £) of AS, drug, administration, monitoring, hospitalization and AEs were calculated from the perspective of the UK NHS. Discounting was applied at 3.5% per year for costs and benefits as per the NICE reference case for economic evaluations. Uncertainty was addressed via sensitivity analyses. Results. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of adalimumab vs conventional therapy was estimated to improve with longer time horizons (48 weeks to 5 and 30 yrs). The central estimate was that, over 30 yrs, adalimumab therapy yielded 1.03 more quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per patient initiating therapy. Some AS treatment-related costs were estimated to be offset by adalimumab (at £10750/ patient), leaving a total incremental cost (adalimumab vs conventional therapy) at £23857 per patient. The 30-yr ICER of adalimumab vs conventional therapy was estimated at £23 097/QALY. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated robustness of results. When indirect costs were also included (analysis from societal perspective), ICER improved to £5093/QALY. Conclusions. This analysis indicates that adalimumab, when used according to UK treatment guidelines, is cost-effective vs conventional therapy for treating AS patients.002B15D002B02Q002B15FAdalimumabNKFR04AdalimumabNKFR04AdalimumabNKFR04Coût07Costs07Coste07Traitement08Treatment08Tratamiento08Spondylarthrite ankylosante09Ankylosing spondylitis09Espondiloartritis anquilosante09Royaume UniNG13United KingdomNG13Reino UnidoNG13Facteur nécrose tumorale14Tumor necrosis factor14Factor necrosis tumoral14Antagoniste15Antagonist15Antagonista15Qualité16Quality16Calidad16Immunomodulateur30Immunomodulator30Inmunomodulador30Antipsoriasique31Antipsoriatic agent31Antipsoriásico31Chronique32Chronic32Crónico32EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEconomie santé37Health economy37Economía salud37Anticorps monoclonal38Monoclonal antibody38Anticuerpo monoclonal38Anticytokine39Anticytokine39Anticitoquina39Facteur nécrose tumorale &agr;40Tumor necrosis factor &agr;40Factor necrosis tumoral &agr;40Rachis pathologie41Spine disease41Raquis patología41Rhumatisme inflammatoire42Inflammatory joint disease42Reumatismo inflamatorio42SpondylarthropathieNM43SpondylarthropathyNM43EspondilartropatiaNM43Système ostéoarticulaire pathologie44Diseases of the osteoarticular system44Sistema osteoarticular patología44Santé publique45Public health45Salud pública45Cytokine46Cytokine46Citoquina46Anti-TNF-alphaINC86246OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1977Infrastructure and firm dynamics : Calibration of microsimulation model for firms in the NetherlandsTravel demand and land use 2006DE BOK (Michiel)BLIEMER (Michiel C. J.)Department of Transport and Planning, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 50482600 GA DelftNLD1 aut.2 aut.132-1442006ENGINIST10459B3540001456012301600000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.32 ref.07-0377363PATransportation research recordUSAFirm location is an important component in integrated land use and transport models. However, representation of firm behavior and firm locations is often too aggregated to model firm behavior adequately. A calibrated simulation approach that models dynamics in the firm population at the level of individual firms is presented. A number of firm demographic events and transitions in the state of individual firms are simulated: firm migration, growth, formation, and dissolution. This provides the opportunity to account for firm-specific behavior and allows a large variety in responses to changes in urban environment. The model quantifies the effects of different spatial and transport planning scenarios on firm population and mobility. Moreover, the firm-level simulation output provides improved possibilities to evaluate the impact of spatial scenarios. It can be linked to an urban transport model to obtain a dynamic simulation of urban development and mobility. The model specification is presented, as well as the calibration of the individual firm demographic processes. The behavior of the calibrated model is verified with multiple test runs.001D14A06001D15A295Occupation sol01Land use01Ocupación terreno01Choix site02Site selection02Elección sitio02Entreprise03Firm03Empresa03Transports04Transportation04Transportes04Pays BasNG05NetherlandsNG05HolandaNG05Modèle comportement06Behavior model06Modelo comportamiento06Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Modèle dynamique08Dynamic model08Modelo dinámico08Démographie09Demography09Demografía09Etalonnage10Calibration10Contraste10Scénario11Script11Argumento11EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG246PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1977Application of travel demand microsimulation model for equity analysisTravel demand and land use 2006CASTIGLIONE (Joe)HIATT (Rachel)CHANG (Tilly)CHARLTON (Billy)PB Consult, Inc., 75 Arlington Street, 4th FloorBoston, MA 02116USA1 aut.San Francisco County Transportation Authority, 100 Van Ness Avenue, 25th FloorSan Francisco, CA 94102USA2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.35-422006ENGINIST10459B3540001456012300500000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.07-0377352PATransportation research recordUSAThis paper describes the application of a state-of-the-art, tour-based travel demand microsimulation model to estimate impact on mobility and accessibility on different populations to support development of a countywide transportation plan. Equity analyses based on traditional travel demand forecast models are compromised by aggregation biases and data availability limitations. Use of the disaggregate (individual person-level) San Francisco, California, tour-based microsimulation model made it possible to estimate benefits to and impact on different communities of concern on the basis of individual characteristics, such as gender, income, automobile availability, and household structure. The concepts and policy context of equity analysis in transportation are presented. Identifying communities of concern and relevant measures of transportation system performance are outlined. The San Francisco model structure is described, and the results of the equity analysis are presented.001D15ATransports01Transportation01Transportes01Demande transport02Transport demand02Demanda transporte02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Equité04Equity04Equidad04Application05Application05Aplicación05Voyage06Travel06Viaje06Mobilité07Mobility07Movilidad07Accessibilité08Accessibility08Accesibilidad08CalifornieNG09CaliforniaNG09CaliforniaNG09Indicateur10Indicator10Indicador10Démographie11Demography11Demografía11Choix modal12Modal choice12Elección modal12Méthode analyse13Analysis method13Método análisis13Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG246PSIPSI 17Les prestations sociales et l'offre de travail : y a-t-il une trappe à l'inactivité ?MARGOLIS (D.)STARZEC (C.)71-120tabl., ann.2005-02FREBDSP/IRDESP192, CODBAR 00552728800dissem.07-0345250PAECONOMIE PUBLIQUE - ETUDES ET RECHERCHEFRACe papier évalue la pertinence de l'argument qui suggère que la générosité de l'aide sociale en France pourrait engendrer une sorte de trappe à inactivité - certains individus préfèrent rester hors du monde du travail - subsistant sur l'assistance fournie par la collectivité, plutôt que d'essayer d'occuper un emploi salarié. Nous utilisons les techniques de microsimulation pour l'évaluation des différences du revenu disponible qui résultent de l'application du barème socio-fiscal à la suite du changement de statut d'activité. Notre approche repose sur l'hypothèse que la décision de travailler dépend du gain net attendu de l'emploi compte tenu de la probabilité d'en trouver un. Le gain net d'activité (GNA) est défini comme la différence entre les revenus d'activité et les revenus de transferts en cas d'inactivité. Le GNA est traité comme l'un des déterminants de la décision de se porter sur le marché de travail dans un modèle de participation. L'élasticité de la probabilité d'être actif par rapport à ce gain est interprétée comme une mesure de risque d'une trappe à inactivité. L'analyse économétrique du comportement d'activité face à GNA conduit à la conclusion que son effet incitatif, assimilable à l'existence d'une trappe à inactivité, est de faible importance. Il est identifiable uniquement dans le cas de la spécification linéaire, dans les ménages comportant un seul adulte. Dans les spécifications préférées (non linéaires), son effet incitatif n'est pas retrouvé. Nous concluons que certains ménages vont se porter sur le marché de travail et d'autres non sans que l'influence de l'environnement socio-fiscal de ménage apparaisse comme un élément déterminant dans la prise de décision de travailler même pour l'ensemble des ménages à faibles revenus potentiels de travail002B30A11SalaireWageSalarioEmploiEmploymentEmpleoMénageHouseholdFamiliaStatut socioéconomiqueSocioeconomic statusEstatuto socioeconómicoFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGSimulationSimulationSimulaciónEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG225 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1981Developing a statewide travel demand model from a person-based time series household surveyPlanning and analysis 2006THOMPSON-GRAVES (Scott)DUROSS (Mike)RATLEDGE (Edward C.)RACCA (David P.)Requardt & Associates, LLP, 107 French LaneZelienople, PA 16063USA1 aut.Delaware Department of Transportation, P.O. Box 778Dover, DE 19903USA2 aut.College of Urban Affairs and Public Policy, University of Delaware, 286 Oraham HallNewark, DE 19711USA3 aut.4 aut.68-752006ENGINIST10459B3540001454490301000000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.7 ref.07-0327239PATransportation research recordUSABalancing the funding needs of data collection and model development is a recurring problem for state departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations throughout the country. To address this problem, the Delaware Department of Transportation (DelDOT) and the University of Delaware have developed an innovative and cost-effective person-based time series household survey that has been conducted annually since 1995. The survey diverges from traditional household travel diary surveys in that it is a telephone survey that collects detailed demographic information on all household members but collects trip information from only one randomly selected household member. While the survey costs between 20% and 50% less than a typical household travel diary survey and greatly reduces nonresponse bias, this survey poses two complications. The first is that household trip generation rates must be synthesized if trip productions are to be estimated on the basis of household cross-classification tables; the second is that the data must be normalized to represent a data set for a single year. A description is provided of the procedure by which this survey was used to perform a major update of DelDOT's statewide travel demand model in 2003. The survey was relied on to provide key information in the first three steps of the four-step travel demand modeling process. This survey method has the potential for widespread application, particularly for microsimulation models, which would not require the household synthesis step.001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Demande transport02Transport demand02Demanda transporte02Enquête03Survey03Encuesta03Ménage04Household04Familia04Série temporelle05Time series05Serie temporal05Analyse coût efficacité06Cost efficiency analysis06Análisis costo eficacia06DelawareNG07DelawareNG07DelawareNG07Producteur trafic08Trip generator08Productor tráfico08Analyse donnée09Data analysis09Análisis datos09Méthode calcul10Computing method10Método cálculo10Choix modal11Modal choice11Elección modal11Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG211PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1981Advanced activity-based models in context of planning decisionsPlanning and analysis 2006VOVSHA (Peter)BRADLEY (Mark)Parsons Brinckerhoff Inc., 5 Penn Plaza, 19th FloorNew York, NY 10001USA1 aut.Mark Bradley Research & Consulting, 524 Arroyo AvenueSanta Barbara, CA 93109USA2 aut.34-412006ENGINIST10459B3540001454490300500000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.12 ref.07-0327234PATransportation research recordUSATravel demand modeling today is undergoing a transition from the conventional four-step models to a new generation of advanced activity-based models. The new generation of travel models is characterized by such distinctive features as the use of tours Instead of trips as the base unit of travel, the generation of travel in the framework of daily activity agendas of individuals, and the use of fully disaggregate microsimulation techniques instead of the aggregate zonal calculations. Although the theoretical advantages of activity-based models-in particular, behavioral realism and consistency across all travel dimensions-are well known, the practical advantages in the context of planning decisions have rarely been discussed and documented. Experiences to date are summarized for application of activity-based models for various planning purposes in metropolitan regions of New York City; Columbus, Ohio; Atlanta, Georgia; San Francisco, California; and Montreal, Canada. The focus is on the practical planning questions and policies that were analyzed with these models and their relative strengths and advanced features compared with the four-step models. The planning questions and policies include congestion pricing schemes, high-occupancy-vehicle facilities, parking policy, testing impacts of demographic scenarios, and so on. It is shown that activity-based models are capable of treating these planning and policy issues at the level at which four-step models become inadequate.001D15B001D15CTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Planification03Planning03Planificación03Activité04Activity04Actividad04Demande transport05Transport demand05Demanda transporte05Retour expérience06Experience feedback06Retorno experiencia06Ville07Town07Ciudad07Etats UnisNG08United StatesNG08Estados UnidosNG08CanadaNG09CanadaNG09CanadáNG09Fixation prix10Pricing10Fijación precios10Congestion trafic11Traffic congestion11Congestión tráfico11Stationnement12Parking12Estacionamiento12Démographie13Demography13Demografía13Occupation sol14Land use14Ocupación terreno14Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG211PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1981Analysis of new starts project by using tour-based model of San Francisco, CaliforniaPlanning and analysis 2006FREEDMAN (Joel)CASTIGLIONE (Joe)CHARLTON (Billy)Systems Analysis Group, PBConsult, 400 SW Sixth Avenue, Suite 802Portland, OR 97204USA1 aut.Systems Analysis Group, PBConsult, 75 Arlington Street, 9th FloorBoston, MA 02116USA2 aut.San Francisco County Transportation Authority, 100 Van Ness Avenue, 25th FloorSan Francisco, CA 94102USA3 aut.24-332006ENGINIST10459B3540001454490300400000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.6 ref.07-0327233PATransportation research recordUSAActivity-based models are increasingly attractive as alternatives to traditional trip-based travel demand forecasting models because of growing dissatisfaction with the internal consistency, aggregation bias, and lack of detail of trip-based approaches. New policy analysis requirements demand that forecasting models represent travel choices and the contexts in which these travel choices are made with ever-increasing geographic, temporal, and behavioral detail. Activity-based models can incorporate this detail and can provide decision makers with more precise insights into potential outcomes of transportation and land use investment and development strategies. The model of San Francisco, California, is a tour-based microsimulation model that forecasts daily activity patterns for individual San Francisco residents and has been used in transportation planning practice since 2000. The San Francisco model uses the daily activity pattern approach, first introduced by Bowman and Ben-Akiva, within a disaggregate microsimulation framework. This paper describes an application of the San Francisco model to the proposed new Central Subway project in downtown San Francisco. This is the first application of an activity-based travel demand model in the United States to a major infrastructure project in support of a submission to FTA for project funding through the New Starts program. To enable the submittal of a New Starts request, software was developed to collapse the microsimulation output of the tour and trip mode choice models into a format compatible with the FTA SUMMIT program. SUMMIT was then successfully used to summarize and analyze user benefits accruing to the project and to prepare an acceptable New Starts submittal.001D15B001D15DTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Modèle prévision02Forecast model02Modelo previsión02Demande transport03Transport demand03Demanda transporte03CalifornieNG04CaliforniaNG04CaliforniaNG04Evaluation projet05Project evaluation05Evaluación proyecto05Itinéraire06Route06Itinerario06Choix modal07Modal choice07Elección modal07Activité08Activity08Actividad08Métropolitain09Subways09Metropolitano09Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG211PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1988Simple method of predicting travel speed on urban arterial streets for planning applicationsHighway capacity and quality of service 2006TARKO (Andrew P.)CHOOCHARUKUL (Kasem)BHARGAVA (Abhishek)SINHA (Kumares C.)School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, 550 Stadium Mall DriveWest Lafayette, IN 47907USA1 aut.3 aut.4 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, Chulalongkom UniversityBangkok 10330THA2 aut.48-552006ENGINIST10459B3540001454478800600000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.12 ref.07-0327217PATransportation research recordUSATravel speed is a key measure of effectiveness in evaluating urban arterials. The Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) methodology of predicting speeds along urban streets requires complex calculations and input not typically available in long-range planning. The use of default values is therefore necessary. This paper demonstrates that a simple and practical method of estimating travel speed along urban arterial streets is possible. An equation derived from the HCM delay formula and calibrated with the results obtained from CORSIM, a microsimulation model, is proposed. The equation requires neither signal characteristics nor detailed traffic and geometry information about arterial intersections. The proposed model of travel speed along urban arterials uses only input available to planners. The model is evaluated with the results obtained from a field study in Lafayette, Indiana. Despite its limited scope of input and simple structure, the model properly replicates the trends found in the field. The model overestimates the actual speeds by 18%, and a simple adjustment factor removes the bias.001D15C001D14O02295Trafic routier urbain01Urban road traffic01Tráfico vial urbano01Modèle prévision02Forecast model02Modelo previsión02Vitesse déplacement03Speed03Velocidad desplazamiento03Planification04Planning04Planificación04Efficacité05Efficiency05Eficacia05Réseau routier06Road network06Red carretera06Méthode calcul07Computing method07Método cálculo07Méthode analytique08Analytical method08Método analítico08Simulation09Simulation09Simulación09Etalonnage10Calibration10Contraste10Expérimentation11Experimentation11Experimentación11Etude sur terrain12Field study12Estudio en campo12IndianaNG13IndianaNG13IndianaNG13Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG211PSIPSI 0886-7372149Modeling water resources management at the basin level : methodology and application to the Maipo river basinCAI (Ximing)collab.RINGLER (Claudia)collab.ROSEGRANT (Mark W.)collab.Institut international de recherche sur les politiques alimentairesWashington DCUSA2006ENGeng0-89629-152-91 vol. (XVII, 151 p.)fig.INIST225013540001591777700000000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.Bibliogr. p. 147-15107-0326672PMResearch report - International Food Policy Research InstituteUSAWith increasing competition for water across sectors and regions, the river basin has been recognized as the appropriate unit of analysis for addressing the challenges of water resources management. Modeling at this scale can provide essential information for policymakers in their resource allocation decisions. A river basin system is made up of water source components, instream and off-stream demand components, and intermediate (treatment and recycling) components. The river basin is thus characterized by natural and physical processes but also by human-made projects and management policies. The essential relations within each component and the interrelations among these components in the basin can be represented in an integrated modeling framework. Integrated hydrologic and economic models are well equipped to assess water management and policy issues in a river basin setting. McKinney et al. (1999) reviewed state-of-the-art modeling approaches to integrated water resources management at the river basin scale. Based on that review, this report describes the methodology and application of an integrated hydrologic-economic river basin model. Today we are faced largely with a &dquot;mature&dquot; water economy (Randall 1981), and most research is conducted with an explicit recognition of and focus on the need to cope with resource limits. Research has focused on a multitude of situations that might be presented in a mature water economy. Much work has been motivated by expanding municipal and industrial demands within a context of static or more slowly growing agricultural demand. More recently, expanding instream environmental demands have been added. On the supply side, conjunctive use of groundwater has been considered in addition to simple limits on surface water availability. In addition, some researchers have worked on waterlogging and water quality effects (primarily salinity). The work presented in this report examines a &dquot;complex&dquot; water economy : one in which demands grow differentially not only within but also among sectors, and one in which limited opportunities for increasing consumptive use exist. In particular, the growth of high-value irrigated crop production (such as table grapes) within the case study basin (the Maipo River Basin in Chile), together with the rapidly growing urban area, provides a rich context in which to examine the general problem of basin-level water resources management. The methodology presented is optimization with embedded simulation. Basinwide simulation of flow and salinity balances and crop growth are embedded with the optimization of water allocation, reservoir operation, and irrigation scheduling. The modeling framework is developed based on a river basin network, including multiple source nodes (reservoirs, aquifers, river reaches, and so on) and multiple demand sites along the river, including consumptive use locations for agricultural, municipal and industrial, and instream water uses.002A32C03BCompétition01Competition01Competencia01Prix marché02Market price02Bassin fluvial03River basins03Cuenca fluvial03Gestion ressource eau04Water resource management04Gestión recurso agua04Méthodologie05Methodology05Metodología05Allocation ressource06Resource allocation06Asignación recurso06Bassin versant07Watershed07Cuenca07Efficacité utilisation eau08Water use efficiency08Eficacia utilización agua08Irrigation09Irrigation09Irrigación09ChiliNG20ChileNG20ChileNG20Modèle hydraulique28Hydraulic model28Modelo hidraúlico28Modèle économétrique29Econometric model29Modelo econométrico29Aide décision30Decision aid30Ayuda decisión30Amérique du SudNGSouth AmericaNGAmerica del surNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG211 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1978Determination of optimal detector location for transit signal priority with queue jumper lanesTraffic signal systems and regional systems management 2006GUANGWEI ZHOUGAN (Albert)XIAOXIA ZHULehman Center for Transportation Research, Florida International University, 10555 West Flagler Street, EC 3680Miami, FL 33174USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.123-1292006ENGINIST10459B3540001455515601500000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.6 ref.07-0325265PATransportation research recordUSATransit signal priority (TSP) is an operational strategy that facilitates movement of transit vehicles through signalized intersections. As an important component of a TSP system, the transit vehicle detection system plays a key role in determining when to trigger TSP and which TSP strategy to use. This paper presents an analytical method to determine optimal detector locations for intersections implemented with TSP and queue jumper lanes. A queue Jumper lane is a preferential treatment for buses that designates a short stretch of a special lane, such as a right-turn bay, to allow buses to bypass a traffic queue and then to proceed ahead of the queue by means of an early green signal for that lane. In this study, a comprehensive TSP strategy was used that considers early green, green extension, special phase insertion, coordination recovery, green reimbursement, and maximum number of continuous TSP requests. An analytical method for determining optimal detector locations under this TSP strategy for different bus arrival conditions was proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed method was verified with the VISSIM microsimulation model, and results show that the method is able to identify optimal bus detector locations for TSP with queue Jumper lanes.001D15C001D14O05295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Détecteur02Detector02Detector02Optimisation03Optimization03Optimización03Traitement signal04Signal processing04Procesamiento señal04Localisation05Localization05Localización05Priorité06Priority06Prioridad06File attente07Queue07Fila espera07Voie circulation08Traffic lane08Vía tráfico08Stratégie09Strategy09Estrategia09Contrôleur trafic10Traffic controller10Supervisor tráfico10Méthode analytique11Analytical method11Método analítico11Simulation12Simulation12Simulación12211PSIPSI 0167-6806BCTRD6Breast cancer res. treat.1022Cost-effectiveness of different reading and referral strategies in mammography screening in the NetherlandsGROENEWOUD (J. H.)OTTEN (J. D. M.)FRACHEBOUD (J.)DRAISMA (G.)VAN INEVELD (B. M.)HOLLAND (R.)VERBEEK (A. L. M.)DE KONING (H. J.)Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, P.O. Box 20403000 CA RotterdamNLD1 aut.3 aut.4 aut.8 aut.Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical CentreNijmegenNLD2 aut.7 aut.Institute for Medical Technology Assessment, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamNLD5 aut.National Expert and Training Centre for Breast Cancer ScreeningNijmegenNLD6 aut.7 aut.National Evaluation Team for Breast Cancer Screening (NETB)NLD211-2182007ENGINIST206993540001499167400900000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.22 ref.07-0325086PABreast cancer research and treatmentNLDIn mammography screening with double reading, different strategies can be used when the readers give discordant recommendations for referral. We investigated whether the results of the Dutch breast cancer screening programme can be optimised by replacing the standard referral strategy by consensus. Twenty-six screening radiologists independently and blinded to outcome read a test set consisting of previous screening mammograms of 250 cases (screen-detected and interval cancers) and 250 controls. Their referral recommendations were paired and, in case of discrepancy, re-read according to three referral strategies: (1) decision by one of the readers; (2) arbitration by a third reader; (3) referral if both readers agree (consensus). Data allowed studying other referral strategies, including referral if any reader suggests, as well. Double reading with referral if any reader suggests resulted in a 1.03 times higher sensitivity (76.6%) and a 1.31 times higher referral rate (1.26%) than double reading with consensus. To estimate the cost-effectiveness, the outcomes were used in a microsimulation model. Even if double reading with referral if any reader suggests results in four times as high referral rates and an accompanying increase of biopsies or other invasive procedures, the cost-effectiveness of?4,190 per life-year gained may well be in the range of acceptable cost-effectiveness for Dutch health care programmes.002B20E02Economie santé01Health economy01Economía salud01Analyse coût efficacité02Cost efficiency analysis02Análisis costo eficacia02Mammographie03Mammography03Mastografía03Pays BasNG04NetherlandsNG04HolandaNG04Criblage05Screening05Cernido05Dépistage06Medical screening06Descubrimiento06Cancer du seinCD96Breast cancerCD96Cáncer de pechoCD96EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGTumeur maligne37Malignant tumor37Tumor maligno37Glande mammaire pathologieNM38Mammary gland diseasesNM38Glándula mamaria patologíaNM38Radiodiagnostic39Radiodiagnosis39Radiodiagnóstico39211OTOOTO 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1372MCMC maximum likelihood for latent state modelsJACQUIER (Eric)JOHANNES (Michael)POLSON (Nicholas)CIRANO, CIREQ, HEC Montréal, 3000 Cote Sainte-CatherineMontréal, QC H3T 2A7CAN1 aut.Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, 3022Broadway, NY 10027USA2 aut.Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, 5807 South WoodlawnChicago, IL 60637USA3 aut.615-6402007ENGINIST164603540001453210601300000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/207-0323485PAJournal of econometricsNLDThis paper develops a pure simulation-based approach for computing maximum likelihood estimates in latent state variable models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Our MCMC algorithm simultaneously evaluates and optimizes the likelihood function without resorting to gradient methods. The approach relies on data augmentation, with insights similar to simulated annealing and evolutionary Monte Carlo algorithms. We prove a limit theorem in the degree of data augmentation and use this to provide standard errors and convergence diagnostics. The resulting estimator inherits the sampling asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood. We demonstrate the approach on two latent state models central to financial econometrics : a stochastic volatility and a multivariate jump-diffusion models. We find that convergence to the MLE is fast, requiring only a small degree of augmentation.001A02H02N2001A02H01J001A02I01Q001A02H02FChaîne Markov17Markov chain17Cadena Markov17Méthode Monte Carlo18Monte Carlo method18Método Monte Carlo18Finance19Finance19Finanzas19Maximum vraisemblance20Maximum likelihood20Maxima verosimilitud20Simulation21Simulation21Simulación21Fonction vraisemblance22Likelihood function22Función verosimilitud22Calcul automatique23Computing23Cálculo automático23Modèle variable latente24Latent variable model24Modelo variable latente24Modèle Markov25Markov model25Modelo Markov25Algorithme26Algorithm26Algoritmo26Méthode gradient27Gradient method27Método gradiente27Recuit simulé28Simulated annealing28Recocido simulado28Théorème limite29Limit theorem29Teorema límite29Estimation erreur30Error estimation30Estimación error30Convergence31Convergence31Convergencia31Méthode optimisation32Optimization method32Método optimización32Comportement asymptotique33Asymptotic behavior33Comportamiento asintótico33Modèle économétrique34Econometric model34Modelo econométrico34Analyse multivariable36Multivariate analysis36Análisis multivariable36Diffusion saut37Jump diffusion37Difusión salto37Méthode statistique38Statistical method38Método estadístico38Analyse donnée40Data analysis40Análisis datos40Propriété asymptotiqueINC78Volatilité stochastiqueCD96Stochastic volatilityCD96211 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1332Estimating the effects of traffic congestion on fuel consumption and vehicle emissions based on acceleration noiseGREENWOOD (I. D.)DUNN (R. C. M.)RAINE (R. R.)Opus International Consultants, P.O. Box 5848, Wellesley StAuckland 1036NZL1 aut.Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Auckland, Private Bag 92-019AucklandNZL2 aut.Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Univ. of Auckland, Private Bag 92-019AucklandNZL3 aut.96-1042007ENGINIST572E3540001453772500400000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.07-0316522PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAWhile significant progress has occurred in quantifying congestion costs within the sphere of traffic engineering, little progress has been made to incorporate such costs into network-level highway evaluation systems. The model presented in this paper takes a middle ground approach between the highly detailed microsimulation approach that is most appealing to the traffic engineer and the traditional highway development engineers' approach of ignoring traffic congestion. The approach adopted is based on modeling of acceleration noise, defined as the standard deviation of accelerations. During periods of high traffic congestion, there is a greater variability in speed, resulting in higher acceleration noise levels. Data collection and analysis have been undertaken on highways in Auckland (New Zealand), Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia), and Bangkok (Thailand). This updated approach (relative to the original HDM-4 research in 1995) has been integrated with the International Study of Highway Development and Management Tools in order to provide an updated model HDM-4 (Highway Development and Management version 4). Fuel consumption predictions were tested both with and without the impact of a simulated acceleration noise level. For the latter of the two (i.e., a given drive cycle) the predictions were within 0.25%. For a generated drive cycle, the results show a consistent underprediction of some 25%. It is believed that this underprediction is largely due to the assumption of the acceleration noise data conforming to a normal distribution. While not prescribed in detail within this paper, vehicle emission models were also developed as part of the work with the results of tests presented. Vehicle emissions of carbon dioxide and hydrocarbons were within the range of the seven vehicles observed. Carbon monoxide and oxides of nitrogen were grossly underpredicted and were below the minimum observed values. These latter results are thought to be caused by the fuel model not predicting rich operating conditions during periods of high acceleration. The model presented, even with the preceding limitations, still has wide application in improving the prediction of vehicles operating on highways in congested conditions. In particular, the model presented provides a much improved predictive ability over those of traditional speed-flow approaches, where errors as high as 200% for passenger cars (higher for trucks) are observed. This makes the approach highly appropriate for inclusion into highway evaluation procedures such as HDM-4. The patterns of fuel consumption and emissions show the appropriate changes in relation to traffic congestion. Furthermore, the model framework readily lends itself to enhancement via adoption of new submodels.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Analyse coût02Cost analysis02Análisis costo02Congestion trafic03Traffic congestion03Congestión tráfico03Consommation carburant04Motor fuel consumption04Consumo carburante04Emission polluant05Pollutant emission05Emisión contaminante05Etude théorique06Theoretical study06Estudio teórico06Bruit trafic07Traffic noise07Ruido tráfico07Accélération08Acceleration08Aceleración08Etude comparative09Comparative study09Estudio comparativo09Modèle simulation10Simulation model10Modelo simulación10204PSIPSI 0033-3735PUROAQPublic roads704A model endeavorALEXIADIS (Vassili)COLYAR (James)HALKIAS (John)Cambridge Systematics, IncGBR1 aut.FHWA Office of Operations Research and DevelopmentUSA2 aut.FHWA's Office of Transportation Management in the Office of OperationsUSA3 aut.2-52007ENGINIST41403540001595835900100000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.07-0308704PAPublic roadsUSAA public-private partnership is working to improve traffic microsimulation technology.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Modèle simulation02Simulation model02Modelo simulación02Gestion trafic03Traffic management03Gestión tráfico03Caméra04Movie camera04Cámara04Image numérique05Digital image05Imagen numérica05Evaluation projet06Project evaluation06Evaluación proyecto06Etats UnisNG07United StatesNG07Estados UnidosNG07Simulation ordinateur08Computer simulation08Simulación computadora08Autoroute09Freeway09Autopista09Algorithme10Algorithm10Algoritmo10Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG197PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1973Modeling signalized intersections near highway-railroad grade crossings : Sensitivity analyses of key design parametersTraffic control devices, visibility, and rail-highway grade crossings 2006CHO (Hanseon)RILETT (Laurence R.)Korea Transport Institute, 2311, Daehwa-Dong, Ilsan-GuGoyang-Si, Gyeonggi-Do, 411-701KOR1 aut.Mid-America Transportation Center, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Nebraska, W348 Nebraska Hall, P.O. Box 880531Lincoln, NE 68588-0531USA2 aut.149-1562006ENGINIST10459B3540001453859001800000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.12 ref.07-0303189PATransportation research recordUSAMany roadway intersections throughout North America are located near highway-railroad grade crossings (IHRGCs). Numerous safety, operational, and legal challenges are associated with IHRGCs; and these become significantly more complex when traffic signals are present. Because of the complexity of traffic operations at IHRGCs, existing macroscopic analysis approaches are not suitable for in-depth analyses. Consequently, a more detailed methodology for the analysis of intersections with traffic signals located near IHRGCs was developed. The approach is microsimulation based and relies on hardware-in-the-loop architecture to model the traffic signal controller. To demonstrate the methodology, sensitivity analyses of key design parameters were undertaken, and their impacts on safety and delay were analyzed. Specifically, (a) the maximum train speed and the corresponding length of the detector,16) the effect of the pedestrian volume, and (c) the effect of the addition of an additional upstream train detector were examined in terms of safety and delay at the IHRGC. The methodology was tested with empirical data from a test bed in College Station, Texas. It was found that the manner in which the maximum train speed was calculated could have a statistically significant effect on delay and a detrimental effect on safety. It was also shown that the addition of an additional upstream detector could reduce delay and increase safety.001D15C001D15D001D14O05295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Trafic ferroviaire02Rail traffic02Tráfico ferroviario02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Intersection04Intersection04Intersección04Passage à niveau05Grade crossing05Paso a nivel05Analyse sensibilité06Sensitivity analysis06Análisis sensibilidad06Vitesse déplacement07Speed07Velocidad desplazamiento07Feu signalisation08Traffic lights08Semáforo08Conception09Design09Diseño09Essai en place10In situ test10Ensayo en sitio10TexasNG11TexasNG11TexasNG11Trafic piéton12Pedestrian traffic12Tráfico peatones12Sécurité trafic13Traffic safety13Seguridad tráfico13Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG197PSIPSI A microsimulation model of private sector pensions in FranceModelling our future : population ageing social security and taxationDEBRAND (T.)PENNEC (S.)PRIVAT (A.G.)GUPTA (A.)HARDING (A.)55-802007ENGElsevierBDSP/IRDESR16618800dissem.07-0294292LAGBR002B30A11RetraiteRetirementJubilaciónPersonne âgéeElderlyAncianoAgeAgeEdadSecteur privéPrivate sectorSector privadoPopulationPopulationPoblaciónSénescenceSenescenceSenescenciaProspectiveProspectiveProspectivaModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoProjection perspectivePerspective projectionProyección perspectivaFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGSimulationSimulationSimulaciónHommeHumanHombreEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG197 Modelling our future : population ageing social security and taxationFLOOD (L.)DEBRAND (T.)PENNEC (S.)PRIVAT (A.G.)et al.GUPTA (A.)HARDING (A.)2007ENGElsevierAmsterdamPagination mult.[543 p.]graph., fig., indexInternational Microsimulation Conference on Population Social Security and Taxation : Modelling Our FutureNLD2007BDSP/IRDESA3541bis, CODBAR 0053115880007-0294283CMNLDModéliser notre futur : Sécurité sociale et politique fiscale des personnes âgéesThe issues associated with population ageing are already assuming prominence in most OECD countries. Many governments are extremely concerned about the likely impact of population ageing upon future government outlays and economic growth. In Australia, for example, there have already been two major government reports that have attempted to quantify the likely implications for government spending of population ageing. These reports have concluded that there will either have to be cuts in current government programs, increases in taxes or some combination of these. The ageing population will also require more health human resources (doctors, nurses, pharmacists etc.), in an environment where the existing workforce itself is ageing. Economic growth is forecast to slow significantly in future decades due to population ageing, reducing government ? s ability to rely on a rapidly growing taxpaying labour force to finance the expected shortfalls. Against this backdrop, volumes 15 and 16 of the International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics Series provide very timely and relevant research for policy makers and researchers across the world. The modelling approaches and research described in the volumes are at the international leading edge, providing insights into how different countries are facing the challenges associated with population ageing. Many countries have developed microsimulation and other models to help them evaluate the impacts of population ageing and of public policy change. Volume 15 concentrates upon the impacts of population ageing upon social security and taxation. For example, the chapters examine likely future pension outlays under current and possible alternative schemes ; estimate the likely wealth of future retirees ; forecast tax revenues out to 2026 and look at the impact of population ageing upon housing prices and tourism002B30A11Personne âgéeElderlyAncianoRetraiteRetirementJubilaciónPopulationPopulationPoblaciónSénescenceSenescenceSenescenciaSecteur privéPrivate sectorSector privadoMacroéconomieMacroeconomicsMacroeconomíaSantéHealthSaludEducationEducationEducaciónRevenu individuelPersonal incomeRenta personalNiveau vieStandard of livingDemandeDemandPeticiónLogement habitationHousingHabitaciónPrixPricePrecioTourismeTourismTurismoFinancementFinancingFinanciaciónPolitiquePolicyPolíticaOffreOfferOfertaSoinCareCuidadoCroissance économiqueEconomic growthCrecimiento económicoModèleModelsModeloProspectiveProspectiveProspectivaSuèdeNGSwedenNGSueciaNGNorvègeNGNorwayNGNoruegaNGCanadaNGCanadaNGCanadáNGAustralieNGAustraliaNGAustraliaNGDanemarkNGDenmarkNGDinamarcaNGFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGSimulationSimulationSimulaciónHommeHumanHombreEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNGOcéanieNGOceaniaNGOceaniaNG197 Modelling our future : population ageing health and aged careGUPTA (A.)HARDING (A.)2007ENGElsevierAmsterdamPagination mult.[594 p.]graph., fig., indexInternational Microsimulation Conference on Population Ageing and Health : Modelling Our FutureNLD2003-12-08BDSP/IRDESA3541, CODBAR 0053090880007-0294250CMNLDModéliser notre futur : santé de la population âgée et soins aux personnes âgéesThis volume serves to present to interested readers recent developments in microsimulation and public policy. It strings together : (1) selected papers presented at the International Microsimulation Conference on Population Ageing and Health : Modelling Our Future ? held in Canberra, Australia in December 2003 ; and (2) recent thinking in the field of microsimulation as reflected in special contributions by some of the leading experts in the field ; (3) description of 20 key models relating to fiscal and health human resource issues concerning sustainability of health systems around the globe. The focus of the conference was on practical uses of microsimulation in government policy although theoretical underpinnings also received considerable attention. The volume covers a diversity of subjects : health status ; pharmacare and health expenditure issues ; financing, caring and health delivery ; health human resources ; and data challenges. To provide an insight into actual models used around the world, the book also has a section devoted to the challenges associated with building of microsimulation models and their current use in the formulation of public policy. The book presents some innovative analysis on public policy issues contained in some of the conference papers along with the methodological advancements made in the microsimulation field002B30A11Personne âgéeElderlyAncianoSantéHealthSaludPolitique sanitaireHealth policyPolítica sanitariaPolitiquePolicyPolíticaOffreOfferOfertaSoinCareCuidadoFinancementFinancingFinanciaciónDépenseExpenditureGastoMédicamentDrugMedicamentoSystème santéHealth systemSistema saludPerformancePerformanceRendimientoRessources humainesHuman capitalCapital humanoModèleModelsModeloObjectifObjectiveObjetivoChoixChoiceElecciónPrioritéPriorityPrioridadSanté publiquePublic healthSalud públicaSimulationSimulationSimulaciónHommeHumanHombre197 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1965Preprocessing volume input data for improved traffic simulationTraffic flow theory 2006WUPING XINHOURDOS (John)MICHALOPOULOS (Panos)Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, 500 Pillsbury Drive SoutheastMinneapolis, MN 55455USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.192-2002006ENGINIST10459B3540001390914902000000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.26 ref.07-0273327PATransportation research recordUSAMicrosimulation has become an increasingly indispensable tool in demanding intelligent transportation systems and planning applications. To build reliable and realistic simulation models, high-quality input data, including roadway geometry, vehicle and driver characteristics, traffic volumes, and composition, are required. Volumes of these data are important but hard to obtain; even when collected with advanced surveillance systems, they are susceptible to miscounting, gaps in time and space, and other inaccuracies. Data that appear to be accurate often do not balance out (i.e., they are inconsistent in terms of maintaining conservation throughout the system). These problems could lead to anomalies or errors during the simulation, seriously tainting the reliability and accuracy of the outputs and weakening the credibility of the conclusions. A comprehensive methodology is proposed for improving the quality of freeway traffic volumes for simulation purposes. Established and enhanced procedures for checking and correcting temporal errors are integrated with an optimization-based algorithm for reconciling spatial inconsistencies in traffic counts. A real-life freeway section was selected to show the effectiveness of the methodology over several days of varying demands. The proposed methodology improved goodness-of-fit measures like root-mean-square percentage, correlation coefficient, and Theil's coefficients. Typical traffic measures of effectiveness produced with reconciled data are closer to ground truth than those produced with corrupted data.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Modèle simulation02Simulation model02Modelo simulación02Système intelligent03Intelligent system03Sistema inteligente03Planification04Planning04Planificación04Méthodologie05Methodology05Metodología05Volume trafic06Capacity of traffic06Volumen tráfico06Statistique07Statistics07Estadística07Application08Application08Aplicación08Expérimentation09Experimentation09Experimentación09183PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1965Failure detection and diagnosis in microsimulation traffic modelsTraffic flow theory 2006BAOHONG WANROUPHAIL (Nagui)SACKS (Jerome)Martin/Alexiou/Bryson, PLLC, 4000 Westchase Boulevard, Suite 530Raleigh, NC 27607USA1 aut.Institute of Transportation Research and Edu cation, North Carolina State UniversityRaleigh, NC 27695-8601USA2 aut.National Institute of Statistical Sciences, P.O. Box 14006Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-4006USA3 aut.163-1702006ENGINIST10459B3540001390914901700000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.16 ref.07-0273324PATransportation research recordUSAEffective and feasible procedures for validating microscopic, stochastic traffic simulation models are in short supply. Exercising such microsimulators many times may lead to the occurrence of traffic gridlock (or simulation failures) on some or all replications. Whereas lack of failures does not ensure validity of the simulator for predicting performance, the occurrence of failures can provide clues for identifying deficiencies of the simulation model and invite strategies for model improvement. Failure is defined as a severe malfunction in one or more traffic links on the network where vehicles are unable to discharge for an unusually long period. Such malfunctions can be detected with link-based time traces of vehicle trips. Identifying locations where malfunctions arise requires further spatial analyses. A procedure for identifying whether, when, and where failures occur Is described. The simulator CORSIM serves as the test-bed simulator for the proposed methodology, but the procedure is applicable to any comparable microscopic model; real-world traffic networks are simulated as case studies. Possible root causes of detected failures are (a) flaws in the simulator behavioral algorithms, (b) improper calibration of inputs, and (c) capacity problems related to the specific network (for example, when heavy traffic demand projections are simulated). Strategies to identify why failures occur are used in the case studies. The results Indicate that the proposed failure detection and diagnosis process is an effective (and essential) way to explore the validity of traffic simulators and find improvements where needed.001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Ecoulement trafic02Traffic flow02Flujo tráfico02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Détection panne04Failure detection04Detección falla04Diagnostic panne05Fault diagnostic05Diagnóstico pana05Modèle stochastique06Stochastic model06Modelo estocástico06Simulateur07Simulator07Simulador07Expérimentation08Experimentation08Experimentación08183PSIPSI 0277-0180OPEC rev.311The commercial sector demand for energy in KuwaitMOHAMED NAGY ELTONYAL-AWADHI (Mohammad A.)Department of the Industrial Bank of KuwaitKWT1 aut.Public Authority for Applied Education and TrainingKWT2 aut.17-262007ENGINIST193123540001433283800200000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1/4 p.07-0268829PAOPEC reviewGBRThis paper models and estimates the energy demand by the commercial sector, using an error correction model. It also simulates the estimated model under three pricing scenarios and presents an analysis of the results. The empirical results indicate that short and long term energy consumption and the level of economic activity are entwined&dquot; The forecasts show that electricity consumption varies directly with economic growth. It also suggests that an increase of 100 per cent in nominal electricity prices will lead to a reduction in commercial sector electricity demand by about 27 per cent by the year 2015. The simulation of the model under the different pricing scenarios demonstrates that there is a great potential for energy conservation by the commercial sector.001D06A01C1230Economie énergie01Energy economy01Economía energía01KoweitNG02KuwaitNG02KuwaytNG02Demande énergie03Energy demand03Demanda energía03Secteur commercial04Commercial sector04Sector comercial04Modèle économétrique05Econometric model05Modelo econométrico05Correction erreur06Error correction06Corrección error06Scénario07Script07Argumento07Fixation prix08Pricing08Fijación precios08AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG176 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1939Microsimulation assignment model for multidirectional pedestrian movement in congested facilitiesBicycles and pedestrians; developing countries 2005ABDELGHANY (Ahmed)ABDELGHANY (Khaled)MAHMASSANI (Hani S.)AL-GADHI (Saad A.)Information Services Division, United Airlines, 1200 East Algon quin RoadElk Grove Village, IL 60007USA1 aut.Department of Environ mental and Civil Engineering, Southern Methodist University, P.O. Box 750335Dallas, TX 75205-0335USA2 aut.Mahmassani, Department of Civil and Environ mental Engineering, Maryland Transportation Initiative, University of Maryland, 1173 Glenn L. Martin HallCollege Park, MD 20742USA3 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, Kind Saud UniversityRiyadhSAU4 aut.123-1322005ENGINIST10459B3540001593174501500000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.18 ref.07-0254802PATransportation research recordUSAFrequent pedestrian casualties in crowded facilities have brought increasing attention to the study of pedestrian dynamics in such facilities. In this paper, a microsimulation assignment model for multidirectional pedestrian movement in crowds is presented. The model attempts to overcome many limitations of existing models by incorporating various pedestrian behavior rules under a particular set of situations. It also adopts a cellular automata discrete system that allows detailed representation of pedestrians' walkways and movement areas. The model is applied to the &dquot;mataf&dquot; system, which is located at the main prayer hall of the holy noble mosque known as Al-Haram Al-Shareef Mosque in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. A set of simulation experiments is designed to illustrate use of the model to study the performance of the mataf system by consideration of different operational conditions as well as different pilgrim behavior rules.001D15C001D15BTrafic piéton01Pedestrian traffic01Tráfico peatones01Zone piétonnière02Pedestrian zone02Zona peatonal02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Foule04Crowd04Multitud04Congestion trafic05Traffic congestion05Congestión tráfico05Modélisation06Modeling06Modelización06Exemple07Example07Ejemplo07Mouvement08Motion08Movimiento08Application09Application09Aplicación09Expérimentation10Experimentation10Experimentación10Etude sur modèle11Model study11Estudio sobre modelo11Système discret12Discrete system12Sistema discreto12Automate cellulaire13Cellular automaton13Autómata celular13Arabie SaouditeNG14Saudi ArabiaNG14Arabia sauditaNG14Résultat expérimental15Experimental result15Resultado experimental15AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG169PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1939Multimodal microsimulation of vehicle and pedestrian signal timingsBicycles and pedestrians; developing countries 2005ISHAQUE (Muhammad M.)NOLAND (Robert B.)Center for Transport Studies, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineer ing, Imperial College LondonLondon SW7 2AZGBR1 aut.2 aut.107-1142005ENGINIST10459B3540001593174501300000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.18 ref.07-0254800PATransportation research recordUSAA simple hypothetical network is analyzed with a microsimulation model to study the effects of signal cycle timings on the delay caused to both vehicles and pedestrians. Various vehicle types and pedestrians are introduced into the network, and their complete journeys are captured in the data output. Fixed-time noncoordinated signal cycles are defined at controlled Junctions. Vehicle flows and signal cycle durations are varied while the other parameters, including pedestrian green phase timings, are held constant. Travel time delay information is disaggregated for vehicles and pedestrians for different signal timing scenarios. The results show that no single signal cycle timing can optimize the network delay for all types of flows. However, if the objective is to minimize the travel delay for all travelers, it is possible to find the optimal signal cycle length on the basis of the relative proportion of people using different modes.001D15C001D14O08295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Modèle simulation02Simulation model02Modelo simulación02Transport multimodal03Multimodal transportation03Transporte multimodal03Type véhicule04Vehicle type04Tipo vehículo04Piéton05Pedestrian05Peatón05Timing06Timing06Timing06Feu signalisation07Traffic lights07Semáforo07Essai sur modèle08Model test08Ensayo sobre modelo08Durée trajet09Travel time09Duración trayecto09Ecoulement trafic10Traffic flow10Flujo tráfico10Retard11Delay11Retraso11Optimisation12Optimization12Optimización12Stratégie13Strategy13Estrategia13Analyse donnée14Data analysis14Análisis datos14Résultat15Result15Resultado15169PSIPSI 1010-7940EJCSE7Eur. j. cardio-thorac. surg.315Allografts for aortic valve or root replacement : insights from an 18-year single-center prospective follow-up study. DiscussionTAKKENBERG (Johanna J. M.)KLIEVERIK (Loes M. A.)BEKKERS (Jos A.)KAPPETEIN (A. Pieter)ROOS (Jolien W.)EIJKEMANS (Marinus J. C.)BOGERS (Ad J. J. C.)KOLH (P.)PEPPER (J.)Departments of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, Cardiology, and Public Health, Erasmus University Medical CenterRotterdamNLD851-8592007ENGINIST213073540001495888901800000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.24 ref.07-0243846PARCTAEuropean journal of cardio-thoracic surgeryNLDObjective: Whether allografts are the biological valve of choice for AVR in non-elderly patients remains a topic of debate. In this light we analyzed our ongoing prospective allograft AVR cohort and compared allograft durability with other biological aortic valve substitutes. Methods: Between April 1987 and October 2005, 336 patients underwent 346 allograft AVRs (95 subcoronary, 251 root replacement). Patient and perioperative characteristics, cumulative survival, freedom from reoperation, and valve-related events were analyzed. Using microsimulation, for adult patients, age-matched actual freedom from allograft reoperation was compared to porcine and pericardial bioprostheses. Results: Mean age was 45 years (range 1 month to 83 years); 72% were males. Etiology was mainly endocarditis 32% (active 22%), congenital 31%, degenerative 9%, and aneurysm/dissection 12%. Twenty-seven percent underwent prior cardiac surgery. Hospital mortality was 5.5% (N = 19). During follow-up (mean 7.4 years, maximum 18.5 years, 98% complete), 54 patients died; there were 57 valve-related reoperations (3 early technical, 11 non-structural, 39 structural valve deterioration (SVD), 4 endocarditis), 5 cerebrovascular accidents, 1 fatal bleeding, 8 endocarditis. Twelve-year cumulative survival was 71% (SE 3), freedom from reoperation for SVD 77% (SE 4); younger patient age was associated with increased SVD rates. Actual risk of allograft reoperation was comparable to porcine and pericardial bioprostheses in a simulated age-matched population. Conclusions: The use of allografts for AVR is associated with low occurrence rates of most valve-related events, but over time the risk of SVD increases, comparable to stented xenografts. It remains in our institute the preferred valve substitute only for patients with active aortic root endocarditis and for patients in whom anticoagulation should be avoided.002B25EAppareil circulatoire pathologie01Cardiovascular disease01Aparato circulatorio patología01Cardiopathie02Heart disease02Cardiopatía02Homogreffe09Homograft09Homoinjerto09Valvule aortique10Aortic valve10Válvula aórtica10Chirurgie11Surgery11Cirugía11Valvule cardiaque12Heart valve12Válvula cardíaca12Racine13Root13Raíz13Connaissance14Knowledge14Conocimiento14Centre15Center15Centro15Prospective16Prospective16Prospectiva16Etude longitudinale17Follow up study17Estudio longitudinal17Discussion18Discussion18Discusión18Pronostic19Prognosis19Pronóstico19Réintervention20Reoperation20Reintervención20Traitement78Treatment78Tratamiento78IntuitionINC86Greffe37Graft37Injerto37162OTOOTO 0105-2896IMRED2Immunol. rev.216Spatiotemporal programming of a simple inflammatory processQuantitative modeling of immune responsesKEPLER (Thomas B.)CHAN (Cliburn)MATA (James)ed.COHN (Melvin)ed.Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Center for Computational Immunology, Duke UniversityDurham, NCUSA1 aut.2 aut.Department of Immunology, Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences, Duke UniversityDurham, NCUSA1 aut.Conceptual Immunology Group, Salk InstituteLa Jolla, CAUSA1 aut.2 aut.153-1632007ENGINIST143173540001435546601100000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.23 ref.07-0237835PAImmunological reviewsGBRInflammatory processes are essential for recruiting leukocytes to the site of infection in sufficient numbers and for initiating adaptive immunity. Unresolved inflammation, however, can cause serious damage to host tissues and indeed is known to contribute to the pathology of many acute and chronic diseases. Leukocytes activated by pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs) respond, in part, by secreting tumor necrosis factor (TNF) and by shedding the TNF receptor, the latter process occurring with slower kinetics. We suggest that this pro/anti-inflammatory switch is a simple program that helps ensure the resolution of inflammation. To examine this idea, we have developed a microsimulation model in which individual leukocytes with non-trivial internal dynamics move in three-dimensional tissues and interact with each other and with stromal cells through diffusing soluble factors, including TNF, the soluble form of the tumor necrosis factor receptor (sTNFR), and the chemokine monocyte chemotactic protein-¹. By manipulating parameters in numerical experiments with soluble PAMP stimulation of varying intensity and duration, we elicit qualitatively distinct patterns of innate immune response and elucidate a key relationship between leukocyte density enhancement by chemotaxis and paracrine TNF signaling. By reducing the rate of sTNFR shedding, we induce massive unresolved inflammation, underscoring a potentially crucial role of sTNFR in controlling innate immunity.002B06002A06Cytokine01Cytokine01Citoquina01Programmation02Programming02Programación02Inflammation03Inflammation03Inflamación03Facteur nécrose tumorale04Tumor necrosis factor04Factor necrosis tumoral04Simulation05Simulation05Simulación05Macrophage06Macrophage06Macrófago06Polysérite familiale récidivanteNM07Familial recurrent polyseritisNM07Poliserositis recurrente familiarNM07Immunologie37Immunology37Inmunología37Immunopathologie38Immunopathology38Inmunopatología38Maladie héréditaire39Genetic disease39Enfermedad hereditaria39Système ostéoarticulaire pathologie40Diseases of the osteoarticular system40Sistema osteoarticular patología40162OTOOTO 0317-086133Suppl.Developing new strategies to support future caregivers of older Canadians with disabilities : projections of need and their policy implicationsKEEFE (J.)LEGARE (J.)CARRIERE (Y.)S65-S802007ENGBDSP/IRDESB5852, CODBAR 00533808800dissem.07-0233133PACANADIAN PUBLIC POLICY - ANALYSE DE POLITIQUESCANDéveloppement de nouvelles stratégies de soutien aux futurs aidants des canadiens âgés souffrant d'incapacités : projections des besoins et conséquences politiquesDans cet article, grâce à des projections, nous évaluons la croissance annuelle au Canada, de 2001 à 2031, du soutien structuré et bénévole dont auront besoin les personnes âgées vivant avec des incapacités. Nous y analysons également les implications, sur le plan des politiques publiques, du besoin croissant d'aidants naturels. Basées sur le modèle de microsimulation LifePaths, de Statistique Canada, ces projections intègrent les taux d'incapacité et la disponibilité potentielle d'aidants naturels à l'intérieur des familles. Nous en concluons que continuer à trop compter sur les familles pour répondre aux besoins des personnes âgées ne constitue pas une approche durable. Enfin, nous proposons la mise en place de politiques publiques pour offrir du soutien financier et du répit aux aidants naturels, et nous évaluons la faisabilité économique de ces politiques002B30A11Personne âgéeElderlyAncianoIncapacitéDisabilityIncapacidadAutonomieAutonomyAutonomíaDépendanceDependenceDependenciaPolitiquePolicyPolíticaFinancementFinancingFinanciaciónDonnée statistiqueStatistical dataDato estadísticoProjection perspectivePerspective projectionProyección perspectivaCanadaNGCanadaNGCanadáNGHommeHumanHombreAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG155 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1961Upstream signalized crossover intersection : Optimization and performance issuesGeometric design and the effects on traffic operations 2006SAYED (Tarek)STORER (Paul)WONG (Godwin)Department of Civil Engineering, University of British Columbia, 6250 Applied Science LaneVancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4CAN1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.44-542006ENGINIST10459B3540001590534300600000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.6 ref.07-0228337PATransportation research recordUSALeft turns have a significant impact on the operation and performance of signalized intersections. Therefore, researchers have investigated alternative measures to improve the performance of intersections with heavy left-turn movements, some of which have been unconventional schemes. One of these schemes is the upstream signalized crossover (USC), a four-legged intersection designed to eliminate left-turn-opposing conflicts by crossing the left and through traffic to the left side of the road at all four approaches prior to the intersection. Crisscrossing action is achieved through the use of a secondary two-phase signal at each crossover point. This research investigated signal optimization strategies for USC intersections and identified important operation issues. The VISSIM microsimulation program was used to model and analyze the unconventional USC intersection and, for comparison, a conventional intersection. The analysis revealed that, for relatively balanced volumes, a USC intersection can significantly reduce average vehicle delays, particularly when the volumes entering the intersection are relatively high. More important, the capacity of the USC intersection was found to be approximately 50% greater than that of a conventional intersection with similar geometry under balanced traffic volumes. For highly unbalanced volumes, particularly when the intersection volumes were relatively low, a conventional intersection outperformed the USC intersection. Overall, the USC intersection showed considerable potential for situations in which one or more of the following conditions exist: (a) intersection volumes are balanced and near or over the capacity of a conventional intersection, (b) traffic volumes are somewhat unbalanced, but the overall entering volumes are too high to be accommodated with a conventional intersection, or (c) the intersection has heavy left-turn volumes that cause excessive delays.001D15C001D14O05295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Intersection02Intersection02Intersección02Feu signalisation03Traffic lights03Semáforo03Optimisation04Optimization04Optimización04Performance05Performance05Rendimiento05Timing06Timing06Timing06Méthode analyse07Analysis method07Método análisis07Coordination08Coordination08Coordinación08Géométrie09Geometry09Geometría09Scénario10Script10Argumento10Durée trajet11Travel time11Duración trayecto11Ecoulement trafic12Traffic flow12Flujo tráfico12155PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1959Comprehensive evaluation of new integrated freeway ramp control strategyFreeway operations and high-occupancy vehicle systems 2006WUPING XINHOURDOS (John)MICHALOPOULOS (Panos G.)Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, 500 Pillsbury Drive SEMinneapolis, MN 55455USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.46-542006ENGINIST10459B3540001450861900600000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.28 ref.07-0225545PATransportation research recordUSAA new integrated ramp control strategy, recently deployed by the Minnesota Department of Transportation in the Twin Cities metropolitan area, is evaluated. This strategy, stratified zone metering (SZM), takes into account real-time ramp demand and queue size information and aims to strike a balance between two competing objectives: improving freeway efficiency and preventing excessive ramp delays. In this study, the SZM strategy was compared to the easier ZONE metering strategy as well as to the no-control alternative. Comprehensive metrics were generated through rigorous microsimulation to assess critical aspects of the strategy's performance. The evaluation results are consistent with qualitative field observations and confirm that SZM strategy improves freeway efficiency when compared with the no-control alternative, reduces freeway travel time and delay, improves freeway speed, smooths freeway flow, and reduces the number of stops. More important, excessive queue spillbacks and ramp delays were significantly reduced under SZM control when compared with the earlier ZONE metering strategy. However, the nonrestrictive metering rates under SZM may cause the freeway proper to be overloaded; this leads to compromised freeway performance as compared with the more restrictive ramp control. This is especially true for heavy traffic demands, when higher ramp volumes are allowed on the freeway.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Autoroute02Freeway02Autopista02Régulation trafic03Traffic control03Regulación tráfico03MinnesotaNG04MinnesotaNG04MinesotaNG04Stratégie05Strategy05Estrategia05Système intégré06Integrated system06Sistema integrado06Evaluation système07System evaluation07Evaluación sistema07Comptage trafic08Traffic meter08Contaje tráfico08Choix site09Site selection09Elección sitio09Etude comparative10Comparative study10Estudio comparativo10Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG155PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1959Automated adaptive traffic corridor control using reinforcement learning : Approach and case studiesFreeway operations and high-occupancy vehicle systems 2006JACOB (Celine)ABDULHAI (Baher)LEA Consulting, Ltd., Suite 900, 625 Cochrane DriveMarkham, Ontario L3R 9R9CAN1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, Suite 105, 35 Saint George StreetToronto, Ontario M5S 1 A4CAN2 aut.1-82006ENGINIST10459B3540001450861900100000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.12 ref.07-0225540PATransportation research recordUSAAdvancements in intelligent transportation systems and communication technology could considerably reduce delay and congestion through an array of networkwide traffic control and management strategies. The two most promising control tools for freeway corridors are traffic-responsive ramp metering and dynamic traffic diversion using variable message signs (VMSs). The use of these control methods independently could limit their usefulness. Therefore, integrated corridor control by using ramp metering and VMS diversion simultaneously could be beneficial. Administration of freeways and adjacent arterials often falls under different jurisdictional authorities. Lack of coordination among those authorities caused by lack of means for information exchange or &dquot;institutional grid-lock&dquot; could hinder the full potential of technically possible integrated control. Fully automating corridor control could alleviate this problem. Research was conducted to develop a self-learning adaptive integrated freeway-arterial corridor control for both recurring and nonrecurring congestion. Reinforcement learning, an artificial intelligence method for machine learning, is used to provide a single, multiple, or integrated optimal control agent for a freeway or freeway-arterial corridor for both recurrent and nonrecurrent congestion. The microsimulation tool Paramics, which has been used to train and evaluate the agent in an offline mode within a simulated environment, is described. Results from various simulation case studies in the Toronto, Canada, area are encouraging and have demonstrated the effectiveness and superiority of the technique.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Gestion trafic02Traffic management02Gestión tráfico02Corridor03Corridor03Corredor03Système intelligent04Intelligent system04Sistema inteligente04Technologie communication05Communication technology05Tecnología comunicacíon05Régulation trafic06Traffic control06Regulación tráfico06Apprentissage07Learning07Aprendizaje07Commande adaptative08Adaptive control08Control adaptativo08Modèle simulation09Simulation model09Modelo simulación09Efficacité10Efficiency10Eficacia10Etude comparative11Comparative study11Estudio comparativo11Gestion intégrée12Integrated management12Gestión integrada12Autoroute13Freeway13Autopista13155PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1923Microsimulation of flexible transit system designs in realistic urban networksNetwork modeling 2005CORTES (Cristian E.)PAGES (Laia)JAYAKRISHNAN (R.)Department of Civil Engineering, University of ChileSantiagoCHL1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering and Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California at IrvineIrvine, CA 92967USA2 aut.3 aut.153-1632005ENGINIST10459B3540001593113301700000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.17 ref.07-0197812PATransportation research recordUSAThe use of microsimulation is not prevalent in modeling transit systems. The software available is rarely capable of modeling transit systems that route vehicles in real time or systems that adjust to the level of demand. It is not straightforward to model a transit system with the available simulation packages, especially when the transit scheme is not &dquot;standard.&dquot; Even the simulation of basic schemes such as a streetcar system or a paratransit service is not an option in existing simulation software. A cursory study would reveal that simulation of any vehicle class other than personal automobiles is always developed as an afterthought in the existing large-scale microsimulation packages. In most cases, simulation developers have done only a superficial addition of transit simulation on top of detailed simulation of automobiles and control mechanisms on freeways and arterials. A microsimulation framework has been developed for a general transit system. Concrete applications of such a framework have been developed and are presented in this paper. Two different transit systems are modeled using the same general framework to show the flexibility of the simulation scheme: a bus rapid transit system and a large-scale real-time routed transit design. The intent is to describe the flexibility that can be brought into a properly designed microscopic simulation platform to model innovative transit system designs, especially in larger urban networks. A simulation scenario is presented in which both transit systems function. The details of both simulations are described along with the problems encountered, and ways to solve them are exposed.001D15CTransport routier03Road transportation03Transporte por carretera03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Conception système05System design05Concepción sistema05Réseau urbain06Urban district network06Red urbana06Application07Application07Aplicación07Implémentation08Implementation08Implementación08Autobus09Bus09Autobus09Expérimentation10Experimentation10Experimentación10134 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1934Versatile model for simulation of rural road trafficTraffic flow theory 2005TAPANI (Andreas)Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute and Department of Science and Technology, Linkoping Institute of Technology581 95 LinköpingSWE1 aut.169-1782005ENGINIST10459B3540001593175201800000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.13 ref.07-0195144PATransportation research recordUSAIn many countries the road mileage is dominated by rural highways. For that reason it is important to have access to efficient tools for evaluation of the performance of such roads. For other road types, e.g., freeways and urban street networks, a wealth of microsimulation models is available. However, only a few models dedicated to rural roads have been developed. None of these models handles traffic flows interrupted by intersections or roundabouts, nor are the models capable of describing the traffic flow on rural roads with a cable barrier between oncoming lanes. These are major drawbacks when Swedish roads, on which cable barriers and roundabouts are becoming increasingly important, are modeled. Moreover, as new areas of application for rural road simulation arise, a flexible and detailed model is needed. Such applications include, among other things, simulation of driver assistance systems and estimation of pollutant emissions. This paper introduces a versatile traffic microsimulation model for the rural roads of today and of the future. The model system presented, the Rural Traffic Simulator (RuTSim), is capable of handling all common types of rural roads, including the effects of roundabouts and intersections on the traffic on the main road. The purpose of the paper is to describe the simulation approach and the traffic modeling used in RuTSim. A verification of the RuTSim model is also included. RuTSim is found to produce outputs representative of all common types of rural roads in Sweden.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Zone rurale02Rural area02Zona rural02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Ecoulement trafic04Traffic flow04Flujo tráfico04Simulateur05Simulator05Simulador05Vitesse déplacement06Speed06Velocidad desplazamiento06Accélération07Acceleration07Aceleración07Dépassement véhicule08Overtaking08Adelantamiento vehículo08Intersection09Intersection09Intersección09Carrefour giratoire10Roundabout10Bifurcación giratoria10Vérification11Verification11Verificación11Etude comparative12Comparative study12Estudio comparativo12128PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1934Nonstationary Kalman filter for estimation of accurate and consistent car-following dataTraffic flow theory 2005PUNZO (Vincenzo)FORMISANO (Domenico Josto)TORRIERI (Vincenzo)Department of Transportation Engineering, University of Napoli &dquot;Federico II,&dquot; Via Claudio, 2180125 NaplesITA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.3-122005ENGINIST10459B3540001593175200100000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.17 ref.07-0195127PATransportation research recordUSADifficulty in obtaining accurate car-following data has traditionally been regarded as a considerable drawback in understanding real phenomena and has affected the development and validation of traffic microsimulation models. Recent advancements in digital technology have opened up new horizons in the conduct of research in this field. Despite the high degrees of precision of these techniques, estimation of time series data of speeds and accelerations from positions with the required accuracy is still a demanding task. The core of the problem is filtering the noisy trajectory data for each vehicle without altering platoon data consistency; i.e., the speeds and accelerations of following vehicles must be estimated so that the resulting intervehicle spacings are equal to the real one. Otherwise, negative spacings can also easily occur. The task was achieved in this study by considering vehicles of a platoon as a sole dynamic system and reducing several estimation problems to a single consistent one. This process was accomplished by means of a nonstationary Kalman filter that used measurements and time-varying error information from differential Global Positioning System devices. The Kalman filter was fruitfully applied here to estimation of the speed of the whole platoon by including intervehicle spacings as additional measurements (assumed to be reference measurements). The closed solution of an optimization problem that ensures strict observation of the true intervehicle spacings concludes the estimation process. The stationary counterpart of the devised filter is suitable for application to position data, regardless of the data collection technique used, e.g., video cameras.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier03Road traffic03Tráfico carretera03Ecoulement trafic04Traffic flow04Flujo tráfico04Etude théorique05Theoretical study05Estudio teórico05Collecte donnée06Data gathering06Recolección dato06Filtre Kalman07Kalman filter07Filtro Kalman07Donnée expérimentale08Experimental data08Dato experimental08Résultat mesure09Measurement result09Resultado medición09Système GPS10GPS system10Sistema GPS10Filtrage11Filtering11Filtrado11Affinement12Refinement12Afinamiento12Etude comparative13Comparative study13Estudio comparativo13Suivi de véhiculeCD96Car followingCD96128 1610-1928932Microsimulation based corrections on the road traffic noise emission near intersectionsDE COENSEL (Bert)BOTTELDOOREN (Dick)VANHOVE (Filip)LOGGHE (Steven)Acoustics Group, Department of Information Technology, Ghent University, St. Pietersnieuwstraat 419000 GhentBEL1 aut.2 aut.Transport & Mobility Leuven, Vital Decosterstraat 67A3000 LeuvenBEL3 aut.4 aut.241-2522007ENGINIST68273540001471391200600000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.53 ref.07-0194929PAActa acustica united with acusticaDEUUrban noise mapping traditionally involves the use of a traffic simulation model, which is often based on the estimation of macroscopic traffic flows. However, intersections and other local traffic management measures are not always modeled correctly. It is well known that the specific deceleration and acceleration dynamics of traffic at junctions can influence local noise emission. Finding the best strategy for using traffic modeling results in noise mapping is a current topic of research in the IMAGINE project. In this paper, a case study is presented, consisting of a large set of microscopic traffic simulations and associated noise emission calculations, which provides some insight into the specific dynamics of the noise emission near different types of intersections. It will be shown that it is possible to refine current traffic noise prediction models, based on macroscopic traffic simulation, using a correction on the average vehicle emission, aggregated in lane segments. A spatial approach should be used, in which inbound and outbound lanes are divided into deceleration, queuing, stopline and acceleration zones. Results from regression analysis on the numerical simulations indicate that meaningful relations between noise corrections and traffic flow parameters such as traffic intensity and composition can be deduced.001B40C28001B40C50Bruit trafic06Traffic noise06Ruido tráfico06Nuisance acoustique07Noise pollution07Nocividad acústica07Bruit fond08Background noise08Ruido fondo08Ecoulement09Flow(fluid)09Flujo09Trafic routier15Road traffic15Tráfico carretera15Zone urbaine16Urban area16Zona urbana16Source sonore17Sound source17Fuente sonora17Modélisation23Modeling23Modelización23Analyse régression24Regression analysis24Análisis regresión24Mesure33Measurement33Medida33.INC82128OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1985Intrahousehold car-type choice for different travel needsTraveler behavior and values 2006PETERSEN (Eric)VOVSHA (Peter)Rand Europe, Westbrook Centre, Milton RoadCambridge CB4 1YGGBR1 aut.PB Consult, Parsons Brinckerhoff, Inc., 5 Penn Plaza, 19th FloorNew York, NY 10001USA2 aut.207-2192006ENGINIST10459B3540001433531002300000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.07-0181312PATransportation research recordUSAA new generation of travel demand models based on individual microsimulation of activities and travel has opened the way for more detailed analysis and modeling of vehicle use. However, the first activity-based models-those applied in practice as well as activity-based model systems developed as research projects-inherited the simplified approach to car allocation and use with no distinction between vehicle types and certainly no explicit modeling of allocation and use of individual vehicles by household members. Structural modeling of car use by vehicle type is essential for air quality and other environmental issues. Further developments of more elaborate policies (toll roads, area pricing, parking restrictions, etc.) that could be differentiated by vehicle size, type, and occupancy are also foreseen. The current study outlines a modeling approach to this issue that can be incorporated into the framework of an operational travel model, as well as reports on the results of estimation for a model of car-type choice based on a comprehensive household survey undertaken in the Atlanta, Georgia, region in 2001.001D15ATransport voyageur01Passenger transportation01Transporte pasajero01Analyse comportementale02Behavioral analysis02Análisis conductual02Voyage03Travel03Viaje03Choix04Choice04Elección04Type véhicule05Vehicle type05Tipo vehículo05Ménage06Household06Familia06Besoin07Need07Necesidad07Modélisation08Modeling08Modelización08Statistique09Statistics09Estadística09Automobile10Motor car10Automóvil10Formulation11Formulation11Formulación11Résultat12Result12Resultado12122PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1985Agent-based demand-modeling framework for large-scale microsimulationsTraveler behavior and values 2006BALMER (Michael)AXHAUSEN (Kay W.)NAGEL (Kai)Institute for Transport Planning and Systems (IVT), ETH ZurichCHE1 aut.2 aut.Transport Systems Planning and Transport Telematics (VSP), Technischen Universität BerlinBerlinDEU3 aut.125-1342006ENGINIST10459B3540001433531001400000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.32 ref.07-0181303PATransportation research recordUSAMicrosimulation is becoming increasingly important in traffic demand modeling. The major advantage over traditional four-step models is the ability to simulate each traveler individually. Decision-making processes can be included for each individual. Traffic demand is the result of the different decisions made by individuals; these decisions lead to plans that the individuals then try to optimize. Therefore, such microsimulation models need appropriate initial demand patterns for all given individuals. The challenge is to create individual demand patterns out of general input data. In practice, there is a large variety of input data, which can differ in quality, spatial resolution, purpose, and other characteristics. The challenge for a flexible demand-modeling framework is to combine the various data types to produce individual demand patterns. In addition, the modeling framework has to define precise interfaces to provide portability to other models, programs, and frameworks, and it should be suitable for large-scale applications that use many millions of individuals. Because the model has to be adaptable to the given input data, the framework needs to be easily extensible with new algorithms and models. The presented demand-modeling framework for large-scale scenarios fulfils all these requirements. By modeling the demand for two different scenarios (Zurich, Switzerland, and the German states of Berlin and Brandenburg), the framework shows its flexibility in aspects of diverse input data, interfaces to third-party products, spatial resolution, and last but not least, the modeling process itself.001D15ATransport voyageur01Passenger transportation01Transporte pasajero01Analyse comportementale02Behavioral analysis02Análisis conductual02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Demande transport05Transport demand05Demanda transporte05Prise décision06Decision making06Toma decision06Algorithme07Algorithm07Algoritmo07SuisseNG08SwitzerlandNG08SuizaNG08AllemagneNG09GermanyNG09AlemaniaNG09EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG122PSIPSI 0887-3801JCCEE5J. comput. civ. eng.206Potential computational benefits of geometric, kinematic, and behavioral downsampling of microscopic traffic network simulationISHAK (Sherif)ALECSANDRU (Ciprian)CHAKRAVARTHY (Srikanth)Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Louisiana State UnivBaton Rouge, LA 70803USA1 aut.Dept. of Building, Civil and Environmental En gineering, Concordia UnivMontreal QC, H3G1M8CAN2 aut.Traffic and Lighting Division, Los Angeles County Dept. of Public Works, 1000 S. Fremont AveAlhambra, CA 91803USA3 aut.410-4192006ENGINIST572X3540001588231000400000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.23 ref.07-0179186PAJournal of computing in civil engineeringUSAThis paper introduces the concept of microscopic simulation system scalability for the purpose of reducing the computational requirements of microsimulation modeling of large-scale traffic networks. This exploratory stage of research investigates scalability of both lane-changing and car-following behavior. The main objective of the proposed methodology is to create a reduced-scale network (microcosm) that retains most of the significant characteristics of the full-scale network (prototype). To achieve this objective a systematic downsampling procedure has been applied to a case study of a one-lane homogeneous freeway corridor in order to create a geometrically, kinematically, and behaviorally equivalent microcosm environment. This paper examines the scalability of lane-changing behavior, assuming a shifted negative exponential headway distribution, and investigates the scalability of car-following behavior under various operating conditions and downsampling ratios. The paper focuses on the tradeoff between performance and scalability of microscopic simulation systems. For each of the 48 cases considered, optimal behavioral parameters were determined based on two optimization methods: (1) Microscopic based on minimization of trajectory errors in both environments and (2) macroscopic derived from minimization of density errors in both environments throughout the simulation period. The results show that both optimization solutions were consistent in determining the optimal behavioral parameters.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Modèle simulation02Simulation model02Modelo simulación02Cinématique03Kinematics03Cinemática03Ecoulement trafic04Traffic flow04Flujo tráfico04Echantillonnage05Sampling05Muestreo05Modèle microscopique06Microscopic model06Modelo microscópico06Méthodologie07Methodology07Metodología07Réseau transport08Transportation network08Red transporte08Exemple09Example09Ejemplo09Comportement10Behavior10Conducta10Etude expérimentale11Experimental study11Estudio experimental11122PSIPSI 1524-9050IEEE Trans. intell. transp. syst.81Queuing models for analysis of traffic adaptive signal controlMIRCHANDANI (Pitu B.)NING ZOUDepartment of Systems and Industrial Engineering, University of ArizonaTucson, AZ 85721USA1 aut.2 aut.Kittelson and Associates, IncTucson, AZ 85701USA2 aut.50-592007ENGINIST270613540001469919400600000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.11 ref.07-0165041PCAIEEE Transactions on intelligent transportation systemsUSAMicrosimulation models are normally used to evaluate traffic-adaptive signal control systems. This paper develops an analytical approach for this evaluation based on queuing models. In particular, a queuing model is developed for a simplified adaptive control strategy that is based on rolling horizon scheme, in which a signal serves two movements alternatively. In this strategy, the first movement is served until the queue dissipates, then the second movement is served until the queue dissipates, then the signal goes back to serving the first movement, and this cyclic process repeats. A numerical algorithm is developed in a stochastic context to compute steady-state performance measures such as average delays and expected queue lengths. These results are compared with simulation-based results, and indeed, the analytically derived numerical method predicts well the simulation results.001D15A001D02D11File attente06Queue06Fila espera06Commande adaptative07Adaptive control07Control adaptativo07Système adaptatif08Adaptive system08Sistema adaptativo08Retard09Delay09Retraso09Gestion trafic18Traffic management18Gestión tráfico18Signalisation routière19Road signalling19Señalización tráfico19Trafic routier20Road traffic20Tráfico carretera20Régime permanent21Steady state21Régimen permanente21Longueur file22Queue length22Longitud hilera22Modélisation23Modeling23Modelización23Analyse signal24Signal analysis24Análisis de señal24Algorithme numérique25Numerical algorithm25Algoritmo numérico25Approche probabiliste26Probabilistic approach26Enfoque probabilista26Période occupation27Busy period27Período ocupacíon27106OTOOTOIEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC'05)8Vienna AUT2006-06-13 0165-0009CLCHDXClim. change801-2Estimating the economic potential for agricultural soil carbon sequestration in the Central United States using an aggregate econometric-process simulation modelThe science, technology and economics of soil carbon sequestration for mitigation of greenhouse gasesANTLE (John M.)CAPALBO (Susan M.)PAUSTIAN (Keith)MD KAMAR ALIMCCARL (Bruce A.)ed.METTING (F. Blaine)ed.RICE (Charles)ed.Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics, Montana State University, PO Box 172920Bozeman, MT 59717-2920USA1 aut.2 aut.4 aut.Department of Soil and Crop Sciences and Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State UniversityFort Collins, MTUSA3 aut.Texas A & M UniversityCollege Station, TXUSA1 aut.Pacific Northwest National LaboratoryRichland, WAUSA2 aut.Kansas State UniversityManhattan, KSUSA3 aut.145-1712007ENGINIST172183540001598000700900000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/407-0150178PAClimatic changeNLDThe purpose of this paper is to develop and apply a new method to assess economic potential for agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation. This method uses secondary economic data and conventional econometric production models, combined with estimates of soil carbon stocks derived from biophysical simulation models such as Century, to construct economic simulation models that estimate economic potential for carbon sequestration. -Using this method, simulations for the central United States show that reduction in fallow and conservation tillage adoption in the wheat-pasture system could generate up to about 1.7 million MgC/yr, whereas increased adoption of conservation tillage in the corn-soy-feed system could generate up to about 6.2 million MgC/yr at a price of $200/MgC. About half of this potential could be achieved at relatively low carbon prices (in the range of $50 per ton). The model used in this analysis produced estimates of economic potential for soil carbon sequestration potential similar to results produced by much more data-intensive, field-scale models, suggesting that this simpler, aggregate modeling approach can produce credible estimates of soil carbon sequestration potential. Carbon rates were found to vary substantially over the region. Using average carbon rates for the region, the model produced carbon sequestration estimates within about 10% of those based on county-specific carbon rates, suggesting that effects of spatial heterogeneity in carbon rates may average out over a large region such as the central United States. However, the average carbon rates produced large prediction errors for individual counties, showing that estimates of carbon rates do need to be matched to the spatial scale of analysis. Transaction costs were found to have a potentially important impact on soil carbon supply at low carbon prices, particularly when carbon rates are low, but this effect diminishes as carbon prices increase.002A14D06002A32B03B3Sol agricoleNT01Agricultural soilNT01Suelo agrícolaNT01Séquestration carbone02Carbon sequestration02Secuestro carbono02Analyse économique03Economic analysis03Análisis económico03Impact économique04Economic impact04Impacto económico04Potentiel05Potential05Potencial05Etats UnisNG06United StatesNG06Estados UnidosNG06Centre07Center07Centro07Modélisation08Modeling08Modelización08Modèle macroéconométrique09Macroeconometric model09Modelo macroeconométrico09Modèle simulation10Simulation model10Modelo simulación10Modèle agrégé11Aggregate model11Modelo agregado11Milieu continental12Continental environment12Medio continental12Gaz effet serre13Greenhouse gas13Gas efecto invernadero13Mesure agri-environnementale14Agri-environmental measure14Medida agroambiental14Système agraire15Agricultural system15Sistema agrario15Système exploitation agricole16Farming system16Sistema de explotación agrícola16Carbone dioxydeNKFX17Carbon dioxideNKFX17Carbono dióxidoNKFX17Région économique18Economic region18Region económica18Modèle orienté processusCD96Process-oriented modelCD96Modelo orientado procesoCD96MitigationCD97MitigationCD97MitigaciónCD97Région agricoleCD98Agricultural regionCD98Región agrícolaCD98Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNGModèle mathématique27Mathematical model27Modelo matemático27Econométrie31Econometrics31Econometría31Economie mathématique32Mathematical economy32Economía matemática32Modèle économétrique33Econometric model33Modelo econométrico33Mathématiques appliquées34Applied mathematics34Matemáticas aplicadas34Economie environnement35Environment economy35Economía medio ambiente35Macroéconomie36Macroeconomics36Macroeconomía36Economie agricole37Agricultural economics37Economía agricola37Science du sol38Soil science38Ciencia del suelo38Région géographique39Geographical division39Región geografica39099 0009-7322CIRCAZCirculation : (N. Y. N.Y.)1157Gender differences in hospital mortality and use of percutaneous coronary intervention in acute myocardial infarction : Microsimulation analysis of the 1999 nationwide french hospitals databaseMILCENT (Carine)DORMONT (Brigitte)DURAND-ZALESKI (Isabelle)STEG (Philippe Gabriel)PSE Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques (L'Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, (cole Normale Superieure, École Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)ParisFRA1 aut.University of Paris-Dauphine, Paris, France, and the Institute of Health Economics and ManagementLausanneCHE2 aut.AP-HP, Henri Mondor Hospital, Department of Public HealthParisFRA3 aut.Assistance Publique-Hopitaux de Paris, Hôpital Bichat-Claude Bernard, Department of CardiologyParisFRA4 aut.833-8392007ENGINIST59073540001455844000500000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.33 ref.07-0130212PACirculation : (New York, N.Y.)USABackground-Women with acute myocardial infarction have a higher hospital mortality rate than men. This difference has been ascribed to their older age, more frequent comorbidities, and less frequent use of revascularization. The aim of this study is to assess these factors in relation to excess mortality in women. Methods and Results-All hospital admissions in France with a discharge diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction were extracted from the national payment database. Logistic regression on mortality was performed for age, comorbidities, and coronary interventions. Nonparametric microsimulation models estimated the percutaneous coronary intervention and mortality rates that women would experience if they were &dquot;treated like men.&dquot; Data were analyzed from 74 389 patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction, 30.0% of whom were women. Women were older (75 versus 63 years of age; P<0.001) and had a higher rate of hospital mortality (14.8% versus 6.1%; P<0.0001) than men. Percutaneous coronary interventions were more frequent in men (7.4% versus 4.8%; 24.4% versus 14.2% with stent; P<0.001). Mortality adjusted for age and comorbidities was higher in women (P<0.001), with an excess adjusted absolute mortality of 1.95%. Simulation models related 0.46% of this excess to reduced use of procedures. Survival benefit related to percutaneous coronary intervention was lower among women. Conclusions-The difference in mortality rate between men and women with acute myocardial infarction is due largely to the different age structure of these populations. However, age-adjusted hospital mortality was higher for women and was associated with a lower rate of percutaneous coronary intervention. Simulations suggest that women would derive benefit from more frequent use of percutaneous coronary intervention, although these procedures appear less protective in women than in men.002B12B03002B12A03002B12B05BAppareil circulatoire pathologie01Cardiovascular disease01Aparato circulatorio patología01Cardiopathie coronaire02Coronary heart disease02Cardiopatía coronaria02Infarctus myocardeNM03Myocardial infarctionNM03Infarto miocardioNM03Mortalité09Mortality09Mortalidad09Voie percutanée10Percutaneous route10Vía percutánea10Base donnée11Database11Base dato11Dilatation instrumentale12Instrumental dilatation12Dilatación instrumental12Epidémiologie13Epidemiology13Epidemiología13Revascularisation14Revascularization14Revascularización14Homme15Human15Hombre15Myocarde pathologie37Myocardial disease37Miocardio patología37085OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1926Simulation of daily activity patterns incorporating interactions within households : Algorithm overview and performanceTraveler behavior and values 2005PRIBYL (Ondrej)GOULIAS (Konstadinos G.)Czech Technical University of Prague, Faculty of Transportation Sciences, Department of Applied Mathematics, Na Florenci 25Prague 110 00CZE1 aut.Department of Geography, University of California, 3611 Ellison HallSanta Barbara, CA 93106-6230USA2 aut.135-1412005ENGINIST10459B3540001593163801600000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.23 ref.07-0101509PATransportation research recordUSAActivity-based approaches to travel demand analysis have gained attention in the past few years and rapidly created the need to develop alternative microsimulation models for comparisons. In this paper, one such example simulates an individual's daily activity-travel patterns and incorporates the interactions among members of households. This model uses several tools to simulate the activity patterns, including a new method to extract activity patterns from data and decision trees to take into account personal and household characteristics. The model outputs are the individuals' daily activity patterns on a detailed temporal scale. These patterns respect individuals' constraints, which are implicitly embedded in the simulated activity and travel schedules via the intrahousehold interactions. This model was evaluated with data from 1,500 persons in Centre County, Pennsylvania, collected during fall 2002 and spring 2003.001D15ATransport voyageur01Passenger transportation01Transporte pasajero01Analyse comportementale02Behavioral analysis02Análisis conductual02Ménage03Household03Familia03Voyage04Travel04Viaje04Etude comparative05Comparative study05Estudio comparativo05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Activité07Activity07Actividad07Demande transport08Transport demand08Demanda transporte08Interaction09Interaction09Interacción09Performance10Performance10Rendimiento10064PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1926Multiagent learning-based approach to transit assignment problem : A prototypeTraveler behavior and values 2005WAHBA (Mohammed)SHALABY (Amer)Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 Saint George StreetToronto, Ontario M5S 1A4CAN1 aut.2 aut.96-1052005ENGINIST10459B3540001593163801200000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.34 ref.07-0101505PATransportation research recordUSAThis paper presents an operational prototype of an innovative framework for the transit assignment problem, structured in a multiagent way and inspired by a learning-based approach. The proposed framework is based on representing passengers and their learning and decision-making activities explicitly. The underlying hypothesis is that individual passengers are expected to adjust their behavior (i.e., trip choices) according to their experience with transit system performance. A hypothetical transit network, which consists of 22 routes and 194 stops, has been developed within a microsimulation platform (Paramics). A population of 3,000 passengers was generated and synthesized to model the transit assignment process in the morning peak period. Using reinforcement learning to represent passengers' adaptation and accounting for differences in passengers' preferences and the dynamics of the transit network, the prototype has demonstrated that the proposed approach can simultaneously predict how passengers will choose their routes and estimate the total passenger travel cost in a congested network as well as loads on different transit routes.001D15ATransport voyageur01Passenger transportation01Transporte pasajero01Analyse comportementale02Behavioral analysis02Análisis conductual02Résolution problème03Problem solving03Resolución problema03Prototype04Prototype04Prototipo04Système multiagent05Multiagent system05Sistema multiagente05Apprentissage06Learning06Aprendizaje06Affectation trafic07Traffic assignment07Afectación tráfico07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Méthodologie09Methodology09Metodología09Résultat10Result10Resultado10064PSIPSI 0921-030XNat. hazards : (Dordr.)383Agent-based modeling and analysis of hurricane evacuation procedures for the Florida keysXUWEI CHENMEAKER (John W.)ZHAN (F. Benjamin)Texas Center for Geographic Information Science (TxGISci), Department of Geography, Texas State University, 601 University DrSan Marcos, TX 78666USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.321-33822006ENGINIST217313540001531698800200000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.3/407-0092731PANatural hazards : (Dordrecht)NLDThe unique geography of the Florida Keys presents both high risk of hurricane landfall and exceptional vulnerability to the effects of a hurricane strike. Inadequate hurricane shelters in the Keys make evacuation the only option for most residents, but the sole access road can become impassable well in advance of a major storm. These extraordinary conditions create challenges for emergency managers who must ensure that appropriate emergency plans are in place and to ensure that an orderly exodus can occur without stranding large numbers of people along an evacuation route with inadequate shelter capacity. This study attempts to answer two questions: (1) What is the minimum clearance time needed to evacuate all residents participating in an evacuation of the Florida Keys in advance of a major hurricane for 92,596 people - a population size calculated based on the 2000 US Census population data, census undercounts, and the number of tourists estimated to be in the area? (2) If a hurricane makes landfall in the Keys while the evacuation is in progress, how many residents will need to be accommodated if the evacuation route becomes impassable? The authors conducted agent-based microsimulations to answer the questions. Simulation results suggest that it takes 20 h and 11 min to 20 h and 14 min to evacuate the 92,596 people. This clearance time is less than the Florida state mandated 24-h clearance time limit. If one assumes that people evacuate in a 48-h period and the traffic flow from the Keys would follow that observed in the evacuation from Hurricane Georges, then a total of 460 people may be stranded if the evacuation route becomes impassable 48 h after an evacuation order is issued. If the evacuation route becomes impassable 40 h after an evacuation order is issued, then 14,000 people may be stranded.226B02001E01O02Ouragan01hurricanes01Huracán01Tempête05storms05Tempestad05Population06communities06Población06Planification09planning09Planificación09Simulation10simulation10Simulación10Protection11protection11Ordre évacuationINC52MicrosimulationINC53Florida KeysNG61Florida KeysNG61ILSTASComté Monroe FlorideNGMonroe County FloridaNGFlorideNGFloridaNGFloridaNGEtats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNorth AmericaAmerica del norte057PSIPSI 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy3418Energy risk management and value at risk modelingSADEGHI (Mehdi)SHAVVALPOUR (Saeed)Economics department, Imam Sadiq University, P.B. 14655-159TehranIRN1 aut.2 aut.3367-33732006ENGINIST164173540001430743400100000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.14 ref.07-0073665PAEnergy policyGBRThe value of energy trades can change over time with market conditions and underlying price variables. The rise of competition and deregulation in energy markets has led to relatively free energy markets that are characterized by high price shifts. Within oil markets the volatile oil price environment after OPEC agreements in the 1970s requires a risk quantification.&dquot; Value-at-risk&dquot; has become an essential tool for this end when quantifying market risk. There are various methods for calculating value-at-risk. The methods we introduced in this paper are Historical Simulation ARMA Forecasting and Variance-Covariance based on GARCH modeling approaches. The results show that among various approaches the HSAF methodology presents more efficient results, so that if the level of confidence is 99%, the value-at-risk calculated through HSAF methodology is greater than actual price changes in almost 97.6 percent of the forecasting period.001D06A01C1001D06A01A230Economie énergie01Energy economy01Economía energía01Gestion risque02Risk management02Gestión riesgo02Prix03Price03Precio03Modèle économétrique04Econometric model04Modelo econométrico04Méthodologie05Methodology05Metodología05Valeur exposéeCD96Value at riskCD96050 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1361Non-parametric tests of productive efficiency with errors-in-variablesKUOSMANEN (Timo)POST (Thierry)SCHOLTES (Stefan)Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group, Wageningen University, P. O. Box 81306700 EW WageningenNLD1 aut.Rolterdam School of Economics and Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), Erasmus University Rotterdam, P.O. Box 17383000 DR RotterdamNLD2 aut.Judge Business School, University of CambridgeCambridge CB2 IAGGBR3 aut.131-1622007ENGINIST164603540001596931500600000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/207-0069726PAJournal of econometricsNLDWe develop a non-parametric test of productive efficiency that accounts for errors-in-variables, following the approach of Varian. [1985. Nonparametric analysis of optimizing behavior with measurement error. Journal of Econometrics 30(1/2), 445-458]. The test is based on the general Pareto-Koopmans notion of efficiency, and does not require price data. Statistical inference is based on the sampling distribution of the L∞ norm of errors. The test statistic can be computed using a simple enumeration algorithm. The finite sample properties of the test are analyzed by means of a Monte Carlo simulation using real-world data of large EU commercial banks.001A02H02N2001A02H02H001D01A03001D01A13Test non paramétrique17Non parametric test17Prueba no paramétrica17Test hypothèse18Hypothesis test18Test hipótesis18Efficacité test19Test efficiency19Eficacia test19Analyse enveloppement donnée20Data envelopment analysis20Análisis envolvimiento datos20Estimation non paramétrique21Non parametric estimation21Estimación no paramétrica21Erreur mesure22Measurement error22Error medida22Econométrie23Econometrics23Econometría23Production24Production24Producción24Valeur extrême27Extreme value27Valor extremo27Méthode statistique30Statistical method30Método estadístico30Méthode Monte Carlo32Monte Carlo method32Método Monte Carlo32Efficacité estimateur36Estimator efficiency36Eficacia estimador36Modèle économétrique39Econometric model39Modelo econométrico39Analyse statistique41Statistical analysis41Análisis estadístico41Simulation numérique44Numerical simulation44Simulación numérica44Erreur dans variableCD96Error in variableCD96043 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1953Applying variable speed limits and the potential for crash migrationSafety data, analysis and evaluationABDEL-ATY (Mohamed)DILMORE (Jeremy)HSIA (Liang)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Central Florida, 4000 Central Florida BoulevardOrlando, FL 32816USA1 aut.2 aut.Florida Department of Transportation, MS 90, 605 Suwannee StreetTallahassee, FL 32399-0450USA3 aut.21-302006ENGINIST10459B3540001588227800300000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.22 ref.07-0034652PATransportation research recordUSAVariable speed limits (VSL) were applied on 1-4 in Orlando, Florida, through microsimulation to reduce crash likelihood. VSL application improved safety by simultaneously implementing lower speed limits upstream and higher speed limits downstream of the location where crash likelihood was observed in real time. Real-time crash likelihood was calculated with the use of models developed in previous research. The improvement was realized in the case of medium- to high-speed regimes on the freeway, but no benefit was achieved in low-speed situations; that is, there was no substantial safety benefit from applying VSL in congested situations. In addition to the safety benefit, travel time was also reduced. The simulation results showed a potential for crash migration. The crash potential appeared to relocate to a location downstream of the detector of interest. Upstream, little change occurred, except at the location where the change in speed took place. While there are some crash migration effects, the overall safety of the freeway was improved due to VSL application.001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Limitation vitesse02Speed limit02Limitación velocidad02Accident circulation03Traffic accident03Accidente tráfico03Sécurité trafic04Traffic safety04Seguridad tráfico04FlorideNG05FloridaNG05FloridaNG05Autoroute06Freeway06Autopista06Système intelligent07Intelligent system07Sistema inteligente07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Scénario09Script09Argumento09Essai10Test10Ensayo10Application11Application11Aplicación11Durée trajet12Travel time12Duración trayecto12Temps réel13Real time13Tiempo real13Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG022PSIPSI 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy351Modelling the world oil market : Assessment of a quarterly econometric modelDDES (Stéphane)KARADELOGLOU (Pavlos)KAUFMANN (Robert K.)SHNCHEZ (Marcelo)European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 2960311 Frankfurt-am-MainDEU1 aut.2 aut.4 aut.Center for Energy & Environmental Studies, Boston UniversityUSA3 aut.178-1912007ENGINIST164173540001588725101400000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.24 ref.07-0034590PAEnergy policyGBRThis paper describes a structural econometric model of the world oil market that can be used to analyse oil market developments and risks. Oil demand depends on domestic economic activity and the real price of oil. Oil supply for non-OPEC producers, based on competitive behaviours, is constrained by geological and institutional conditions. Oil prices are determined by a &dquot;price rule&dquot; that includes market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Policy simulations indicate that oil demand and non-OPEC supply are rather inelastic to changes in price, while OPEC decisions about quota and capacity utilisation have a significant, immediate impact on oil prices.001D06A01C2B001D06A01A230Economie pétrolière01Oil economy01Economía petrolera01PétroleFX02PetroleumFX02PetróleoFX02Etude marché03Market survey03Estudio mercado03Demande04Demand04Petición04Approvisionnement05Supply05Aprovisionamiento05Prix06Price06Precio06Modèle économétrique07Econometric model07Modelo econométrico07Analyse tendance08Trend analysis08Análisis tendencia08Simulation09Simulation09Simulación09Prévision10Forecasting10Previsión10Analyse risque11Risk analysis11Análisis riesgo11022 0090-5364ASTSC7Ann. stat.344Nonparametric estimation of mean-squared prediction error in nested-error regression modelsHALL (Peter)MAITI (Tapabrata)Australian National UniversityAUSIowa State UniversityUSA1733-17502006ENGINIST3079A13540001590464300500000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.32 ref.07-0024776PAAnnals of statisticsUSANested-error regression models are widely used for analyzing clustered data. For example, they are often applied to two-stage sample surveys, and in biology and econometrics. Prediction is usually the main goal of such analyses, and mean-squared prediction error is the main way in which prediction performance is measured. In this paper we suggest a new approach to estimating mean-squared prediction error. We introduce a matched-moment, double-bootstrap algorithm, enabling the notorious underestimation of the naive mean-squared error estimator to be substantially reduced. Our approach does not require specific assumptions about the distributions of errors. Additionally, it is simple and easy to apply. This is achieved through using Monte Carlo simulation to implicitly develop formulae which, in a more conventional approach, would be derived laboriously by mathematical arguments.001A02H02H001A02H02JEstimation non paramétrique17Non parametric estimation17Estimación no paramétrica17Erreur estimation18Estimation error18Error estimación18Déconvolution19Deconvolution19Desconvolución19Erreur quadratique moyenne20Mean square error20Error medio cuadrático20Modèle emboîté23Nested model23Modelo encajado23Modèle régression24Regression model24Modelo regresión24Biologie28Biology28Biología28Analyse performance31Performance analysis31Análisis eficacia31Estimation statistique32Statistical estimation32Estimación estadística32Bootstrap34Bootstrap34Bootstrap34Méthode Monte Carlo37Monte Carlo method37Método Monte Carlo37Méthode statistique39Statistical method39Método estadístico39Théorie prédiction41Prediction theory41Modèle économétrique42Econometric model42Modelo econométrico42Simulation numérique43Numerical simulation43Simulación numérica43Effet mixteINC70Prédicteur empiriqueCD96Empirical predictorCD96Meilleur prédicteur linéaire sans biaisCD97Best linear unbiased predictorCD97Réduction biasCD98Bias reductionCD98015 Le non recours à la couverture maladie universelle complémentaire des allocataires du Rmi : mesure et analyseObservatoire des Non-Recours aux Droits et Services. (O.D.E.N.O.R.E.). Saint Martin d'Hères.FRAFonds de Financement de la Protection Complémentaire de la Couverture Universelle du Risque Maladie. Paris.FRAcommand.2006FREFonds cmu : Saint-Martin d'Hères : ODENOREParis32 p.BDSP/IRDESB56498800dissem.07-0024128LMFRAL'ODENORE (MSH-Alpes, CNRS, IEP Grenoble) montre, à partir d'informations issues de Cpam et de Caf, ainsi que d'entretiens téléphoniques avec des bénéficiaires du RMI, pourquoi ces derniers n'ont pas eu recours au bénéfice de la CMU complémentaire, alors qu'ils y ont accès de plein droit002B30A11MénageHouseholdFamiliaAssuranceInsuranceSeguroSecteur privéPrivate sectorSector privadoEvaluationEvaluationEvaluaciónEntretienInterviewEntrevistaModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGSimulationSimulationSimulaciónEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG015 Comprendre les causes du non-recours à la CMUC : rapport finalDUFOUR-KIPPELEN (S.)LEGAL (A.)WITTWER (J.)Université Paris Dauphine. Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion des Organisations de Santé. (L.E.G.O.S.). Paris.FRAFonds de Financement de la Protection Complémentaire de la Couverture Universelle du Risque Maladie. Paris.FRAcommand.2006FREFonds cmuParis79 p.7 ann.BDSP/IRDESB56488800dissem.07-0024127LMFRALe LEGOS (Université Paris - Dauphine) analyse les origines du non-recours à la CMU complémentaire, à partir des données de l'IRDES et avec la collaboration du bureau du RMI du Département de Paris (espace insertion du XIe arrondissement). Le non-recours concerne environ le quart des bénéficiaires potentiels002B30A11MénageHouseholdFamiliaAssuranceInsuranceSeguroSecteur privéPrivate sectorSector privadoEvaluationEvaluationEvaluaciónEntretienInterviewEntrevistaModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGParisNGParisNGParísNGSimulationSimulationSimulaciónEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGIle de FranceNGIle-de-FranceNGIle de FranceNG015 0336-1454Econ. stat401Les concubins et l'impôt sur le revenu en FranceLEGENDRE (Francois)THIBAULT (Florence)Université Paris-XIIFRA1 aut.CEPN (Université Paris-XIII et CNRS)FRA2 aut.3-21, 61-64 [23 p.]2007FREenggerspaINIST242283540001624091400100000© 2007 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.521-07-13165PAEconomie et statistiqueFRAUnmarried couples and income taxes in FranceLa législation fiscale française ne permet pas aux couples de concubins de déclarer ensemble leurs revenus à l'impôt sur le revenu. Ils perdent ainsi, par rapport aux couples mariés, le bénéfice du quotient conjugal, dispositif susceptible de réduire l'impôt supporté par un couple. L'examen de la législation montre que le quotient conjugal joue pleinement lorsque la structure des apports de ressources dans le couple est fortement dissymétrique. Il permet de repérer les dispositifs qui amoindirssent les effets du quotient conjugal: le mécanisme de la décote et celui du minimum de recouvrement. Le mariage peut alors se traduire par des pertes financières. Dans certains cas, le fait pour le moins favorisé des deux conjoints de ne plus pouvoir bénéficier de la prime pour l'emploi en cas de mariage peut également se traduire par une perte. Pour conclure à l'impact effectif du mariage en terme de perte ou de gain, il importe d'apprécier la fréquence réelle des configurations des couples correspondantes, et de simuler le mariag des couples de concubins : un modèle de microsimulation - Myriade - à partir de la situation réelle des couples en 2005 montre que le concubinage, s'il est largement répandu, reste plus particulièrement prégnant chez les personnes les plus modestes. La simulation du mariage des concubins conduit à un gain au mariage modeste : la dissymétrie des apports et le niveau de vie, plus faibles che les concubins, contribuent largement à l'expliquer.52146AXII52130VIII521FranceNG01FranceNG01Impôt sur le revenu02Income Taxes02Mariage03Marriage03Effet pervers04Unintended Consequences04Couple05Couple05ConcubinageINC32316 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1328Development of an optimization methodology for adaptive traffic signal control at diamond interchangesFANG (Fang Clara)ELEFTERIADOU (Lily)Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of HartfordWest Hartford, CT 06117USA1 aut.Dept. of Civil and Coastal Engineering, Univ. of FloridaGainesville, FL 32611USA2 aut.629-6372006ENGINIST572E3540001570783000400000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.16 ref.06-0539815PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAThis research develops a methodology and a corresponding implementation algorithm to provide optimal signal control of diamond interchanges in response to real-time traffic fluctuations. The problem is formulated as to find a phase sequencing decision with a phase duration that makes a prespecified performance measure minimized over a finite horizon that rolls forward. The problem is solved by a forward dynamic programming (DP) method. The optimal signal switches over each 2.5 s interval are found for each horizon of 10 s. The optimization process is based on the advanced vehicle information obtained from loop detectors set back a certain distance from the stop line. Vehicle trajectories from detections till future arrivals and departures is modeled at the microscopic level to estimate the traffic flows at the stop-line for each horizon. The DP algorithm is coded in C++ language and dynamically linked to AIMSUN, a stochastic microsimulation package, for evaluation. The simulation results have exhibited that the DP algorithm is superior to PASSER III and TRANSYT-7F in handling demand fluctuations for medium to high flow scenarios when the field demand is increased from the one used in off-line optimization. The performance of the three algorithms is almost identical if the simulation demand is similar to off-line demand situation and does not vary much.001D15C001D15B001D14O05295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Ecoulement trafic02Traffic flow02Flujo tráfico02Echangeur routier03Interchange03Cruce a diferentes niveles03Méthodologie04Methodology04Metodología04Optimisation05Optimization05Optimización05Feu signalisation06Traffic lights06Semáforo06Algorithme07Algorithm07Algoritmo07Contrôle optimal08Optimal control (mathematics)08Control óptimo (matemáticas)08Formulation09Formulation09Formulación09Simulation10Simulation10Simulación10Implémentation11Implementation11Implementación11Etude comparative12Comparative study12Estudio comparativo12Recommandation13Recommendation13Recomendación13353PSIPSI 0140-9883EECODREnergy econ.285-6Estimating energy-augmenting technological change in developing country industriesModeling technological change in climate policy analysesSANSTAD (Alan H.)ROY (Joyashree)SATHAYE (Jayant A.)HOUGHTON (John)ed.Mailstop 90-4000, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, #1 Cyclotron RdBerkeley, CA 94720USA1 aut.3 aut.Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, II, Central ParkJadavpur, Kolkata 700032IND2 aut.720-7292006ENGINIST182313540001572276301200000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.18 ref.06-0515410PAEnergy economicsGBR6 notesAssumptions regarding the magnitude and direction of energy-related technological change have long been recognized as critical determinants of the outputs and policy conclusions derived from integrated assessment models. Particularly in the case of developing countries, however, empirical analysis of technological change has lagged behind simulation modeling. This paper presents estimates of sectoral productivity trends and energy-augmenting technological change for several energy-intensive industries in India and South Korea, and, for comparison, the United States. The key findings are substantial heterogeneity among both industries and countries, and a number of cases of declining energy efficiency. The results are subject to certain technical qualifications both in regards to the methodology and to the direct comparison to integrated assessment parameterizations. Nevertheless, they highlight the importance of closer attention to the empirical basis for common modeling assumptions.001D06A01C1001D06A01A230Economie énergie01Energy economy01Economía energía01Intensité énergétique02Energy intensity02Rendement énergétique03Energetic efficiency03Rendimiento energético03Changement technologique04Technological change04Cambio tecnológico04Secteur secondaire05Secondary sector05Sector secundario05Modèle économétrique06Econometric model06Modelo econométrico06Fonction coût07Cost function07Función coste07Analyse tendance08Trend analysis08Análisis tendencia08Système autonome09Autonomous system09Sistema autónomo09Corée du SudNG10South KoreaNG10Corea del surNG10IndeNG11IndiaNG11IndiaNG11Etats UnisNG12United StatesNG12Estados UnidosNG12Autonomous energy efficiency improvmentINC72Modèle TranslogINC73CoréeNGKoreaNGCoreaNGAsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG338 0032-4663611-2Les effets des réformes des retraites sur les inégalités de genre en FranceBONNET (C.)BUFFETEAU (S.)GODEFROY (P.)45-76fig., tabl.2006-01/2006-02FREBDSP/IRDESP27/1, CODBAR 005058388002 p.06-0514845PAPOPULATIONFRAAlors que la problématique des écarts entre les retraites des hommes et celles des femmes et de leurs évolutions est relativement peu abordée en France, les quelques études existantes concluent cependant à une réduction des écarts entre hommes et femmes à l'horizon 2040. Cet article s'inscrit dans la lignée de ces travaux en s'interrogeant sur un éventuel impact différencié selon le sexe des réformes des retraites adoptées en France en 1993 et en 2003. Pour cela, on projette les droits à la retraite des générations 1965-1974 à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation dynamique Destinie dans trois scénarios : avant la réforme de 1993 ; après la réforme de 1993 et avant celle de 2003 ; après la réforme de 2003. On montre que, malgré l'absence de dispositions spécifiques selon le sexe, ces réformes semblent avoir un impact plus négatif sur les pensions des femmes que sur celles des hommes. En effet, sans les réformes et sous des hypothèses de maintien des tendances actuelles quant à l'activité, les hommes des générations 1965-1974 percevraient une pension moyenne 1,47 fois plus élevée que celle des femmes. Avec la réforme de 1993, le ratio s'établit à 1,54 et avec celle de 2003 à 1,59. (Résumé d'auteur)002B30A11HommeHumanHombreFemmeWomanMujerClasse socialeSocial classClase socialInégalitéInequalityDesigualdadRetraiteRetirementJubilaciónActivité professionnelleProfessional activityActividad profesionalEmploiEmploymentEmpleoSalaireWageSalarioDonnée statistiqueStatistical dataDato estadísticoProjection perspectivePerspective projectionProyección perspectivaFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG338 Welfare reform in European countries : a microsimulation analysisIMMERVOLL (H.)JACOBSEN KLEVEN (H.)THUSTRUP KREINER (C.L.)SAEZ (E.)Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques. (O.C.D.E.). Direction pour l'Education l'Emploi le Travail et les Affaires Sociales. Paris.FRA2005ENGOCDEParisDEELSA/ELSA/WD(2005)757 p.tabl., fig.BDSP/IRDESB5542, CODBAR 0047752880006-0514817LMFRAAnalyse de microsimulation des réformes de protection sociale dans des pays membres de l'Union européenneCe document évalue l'impact sur les transferts sociaux et la répartition des revenus de deux types de réformes de la protection sociale dans 15 pays membres (avant l'élargissement) de l'Union Européenne. Ces réformes n'ont pas d'incidence sur les recettes publiques et elles sont financées par un relèvement général et uniforme du taux marginal des gains. La première réforme distribue uniformément entre tous les citoyens le surcroît de recettes fiscales (protection sociale traditionnelle), alors que la seconde distribue uniformément les recettes fiscales uniquement entre les travailleurs (prestations liées à l'emploi). On construit un modèle simple de l'offre de main-d'oeuvre prenant en compte les réactions aux prélèvements sociaux et aux transferts tant à la marge intensive qu'à la marge extensive. On applique alors le modèle EUROMOD pour décrire les systèmes d'aide sociale et d'imposition actuellement en place dans tous les pays de l'Union européenne et on utilise les élasticités calibrés de l'offre de main-d'oeuvre aux marges intensive et extensive pour analyser les effets des deux réformes de la protection sociale. On évalue de manière quantitative le compromis équité-efficacité pour une série de paramètres d'élasticité. Nous examinons les implications pratiques pour l'action des pouvoirs publics de la politique européenne d'aide sociale (R.A.)002B30A11Protection socialeWelfare aidsProtección socialRevenu individuelPersonal incomeRenta personalPolitique fiscaleFiscal policyPolítica fiscalTravailWorkTrabajoMéthodologieMethodologyMetodologíaEtude comparativeComparative studyEstudio comparativoPays industrialiséIndustrialized countryPaís industrializadoOCDEOECDOCDESimulationSimulationSimulación338 0195-6574Energy j. : (Camb., MA)274Forecasting nonlinear crude oil futures pricesMOSHIRI (Saeed)FOROUTAN (Faezeh)Department of Economics, University of ManitobaWinnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 5T8CAN1 aut.University of Tarbiat ModarresTehranIRN2 aut.81-952006ENGINIST273403540001522671600400000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/406-0496125PAThe Energy journal : (Cambridge, MA)USAThe movements in oil prices are very complex and, therefore, seem to be unpredictable. However, one of the main challenges facing econometric models is to forecast such seemingly unpredictable economic series. Traditional linear structural models have not been promising when used for oil price forecasting. Although linear and nonlinear time series models have performed much better in forecasting oil prices, there is still room for improvement. If the data generating process is nonlinear, applying linear models could result in large forecast errors. Model specification in nonlinear modeling, however, can be very case dependent and time-consuming. In this paper, we model and forecast daily crude oil futures prices from 1983 to 2003, listed in NYMEX, applying ARIMA and GARCH models. We then test for chaos using embedding dimension, BDS(L), Lyapunov exponent, and neural networks tests. Finally, we set up a nonlinear and flexible ANN model to forecast the series. Since the test results indicate that crude oil futures prices follow a complex nonlinear dynamic process, we expect that the ANN model will improve forecasting accuracy. A comparison of the results of the forecasts among different models confirms that this is indeed the case.001D06A01C2B001D06A01A230Economie pétrolière01Oil economy01Economía petrolera01PétroleFX02PetroleumFX02PetróleoFX02Prix03Price03Precio03Marché à terme04Time bargain04Prévision05Forecasting05Previsión05Modèle économétrique06Econometric model06Modelo econométrico06Variation journalière07Daily variation07Variación diaria07Chaos08Chaos08Caos08Modèle non linéaire09Non linear model09Modelo no lineal09Modèle stochastique10Stochastic model10Modelo estocástico10Réseau neuronal11Neural network11Red neuronal11Evaluation performance12Performance evaluation12Evaluación prestación12Simulation13Simulation13Simulación13Etude comparative14Comparative study14Estudio comparativo14Modèle GARCHINC72Modèle ARIMAINC73324 0195-6574Energy j. : (Camb., MA)273Is the strategic petroleum reserve our ace in the hole?CONSIDINE (Timothy J.)The Pennsylvania State University, 125 Hosier BuildingUniversity Park, PA 16802USA1 aut.91-1122006ENGINIST273403540001388673500600000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.20 ref.06-0470025PAThe Energy journal : (Cambridge, MA)USAThe Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is often touted as a vital asset in mitigating the adverse effects of oil supply disruptions on the economy. The importance of SPR, however, largely depends upon the effect of stock sales on market prices. To address this question, this study develops a monthly econometric model of the world crude oil market. Inventories, consumption, production, and prices for crude oil are determined within a dominant producer pricing framework in which Saudi Arabia adjusts output based upon market demand and competitive fringe supply. The estimation results provide additional support for the dominant producer pricing model for world oil markets and reasonable estimates of short-run supply and demand elasticities. Several model simulations are conducted to assess the impacts of SPR policies. For example, the gradual build-up of the SPR by the Bush Administration resulted in a very small, almost imperceptible increase in world prices. Similarly, the Clinton sale from SPR had minor impacts on market prices. Another simulation indicates that while SPR sales can lower world prices during a supply shock, the required drawdown would be so substantial the reserve would be significantly depleted after just a few months. These findings suggest that once played, the SPR card has modest impacts on world prices and could be easily trumped by actions of other players, including output adjustments by world oil producers.001D06A01C2B001D06A01A230Economie pétrolière01Oil economy01Economía petrolera01Modèle économétrique02Econometric model02Modelo econométrico02Etude marché03Market survey03Estudio mercado03Production04Production04Producción04Consommation05Consumption05Consumo05Stock réserve06Security stockpile06Stock sécurité07Safety stock07Stock seguridad07Vente08Sales08Venta08Impact économique09Economic impact09Impacto económico09Prix10Price10Precio10PétroleFX11PetroleumFX11PetróleoFX11Achat12Purchases12Compra12Etats UnisNG13United StatesNG13Estados UnidosNG13Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG310 1167-468748Perspectives financières du régime général à l'horizon 2050BRIDENNE (I.)COUHIN (J.)83-106tabl.2006-06FREBDSP/FNG19631, FNCOLL8800dissem.06-0429082PARETRAITE ET SOCIETEFRADes outils d'évaluation et d'analyse ont été élaborés pour répondre aux questions soulevées par l'évolution des systèmes de retraite face au vieillissement démographique. Dans ce contexte, la CNAV s'est dotée d'un nouveau modèle de projection des retraites &dquot;Prisme&dquot;. Conçu dans le but d'estimer en projection l'équilibre financier de la branche vieillesse, Prisme est un modèle de microsimulation permettant de projeter les trajectoires des assurés et d'en déduire l'évolution des masses de cotisations et de prestations du régime général. Cet article a pour objectif de présenter les résultats des projections réalisées pour 2050 à l'aide de ce modèle002B30A11HommeHumanHombreRetraiteRetirementJubilaciónDonnée statistiqueStatistical dataDato estadísticoFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGProjection perspectivePerspective projectionProyección perspectivaCharges socialesSocial chargesCargas socialesPopulationPopulationPoblaciónSénescenceSenescenceSenescenciaSimulationSimulationSimulaciónHypothèseHypothesisHipótesisEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG282 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1324Neural network-wavelet microsimulation model for delay and queue length estimation at freeway work zonesGHOSH-DASTIDAR (Samanwoy)ADELI (Hojjat)Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Geodetic Science, Ohio State Univ., 470 Hitchcock Hall, 2070 Neil AveColumbus, OH 43210USA1 aut.2 aut.331-3412006ENGINIST572E3540001530609600700000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.34 ref.06-0425600PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSARecently, the writers developed a new mesoscopic-wavelet model for simulating freeway traffic flow patterns and extracting congestion characteristics. As an extension of that research, in this paper, a new neural network-wavelet microsimulation model is presented to track the travel time of each individual vehicle for traffic delay and queue length estimation at work zones. The model incorporates the dynamics of a single vehicle in changing traffic flow conditions. The extracted congestion characteristics obtained from the mesoscopic-wavelet model are used in a Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation (BP) neural network for classifying the traffic flow as free flow, transitional flow, and congested flow with stationary queue. The neural network model is trained using simulated data and tested using both simulated and real data. The computational model presented is applied to five examples of freeways with two and three lanes and one lane closure with varying entry flow or demand patterns. The new microsimulation model is more accurate than macroscopic models and substantially more efficient than microscopic models.001D15C001D15B001D14O06295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Autoroute02Freeway02Autopista02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Ecoulement trafic04Traffic flow04Flujo tráfico04Congestion trafic05Traffic congestion05Congestión tráfico05Retard06Delay06Retraso06Chantier07Working site07Taller07Construction routière08Road construction08Construcción carretera08Réseau neuronal09Neural network09Red neuronal09Durée trajet10Travel time10Duración trayecto10Application11Application11Aplicación11Exemple12Example12Ejemplo12282PSIPSI 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1332A fast subsampling method for nonlinear dynamic modelsAnnals journal of econometrics: Resampling methods in econometricsHONG (H.)SCAILLET (O.)DUFOUR (Jean-Marie)ed.PERRON (Benoît)ed.Department of Economics, Duke UniversityDurham, NC 27708-0097USA1 aut.HEC - Université de Cenère and FAME, 102 Bd Carl Vogt1211 GenèveCHE2 aut.CIRANOCAN1 aut.2 aut.CIREQCAN1 aut.2 aut.Département de sciences économiques, Université de MontréalCAN1 aut.2 aut.Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative (CIREQ)Montréal, QuébecCANorg-cong.557-5782006ENGINIST164603540001569936700600000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.22 ref.06-0421177PCAJournal of econometricsNLDWe highlight a fast subsampling method that can be used to provide valid inference in nonlinear dynamic econometric models. This method is based on the subsampling theory proposed by Politis and Romano[A general theory for large sample confidence regions based on subsamples under minimal assumptions, Technical Report 399, Dept of Statistics, Stanford University; Large sample confidence regions based on subsamples under minimal assumptions. Annals of Statistics 22, 2031-2050]. Fast subsampling directly exploits score functions computed on each subsample and avoids recomputing the estimators for each of them. This method is used to approximate the limit distribution of estimators, possibly simulation based, that admit an asymptotic linear representation with both known and unknown rates of convergence. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate the desirable performance and vast improvement in the numerical speed of the fast subsampling method.001A02H02N2001A02H02MModèle non linéaire17Non linear model17Modelo no lineal17Modèle dynamique18Dynamic model18Modelo dinámico18Estimation statistique19Statistical estimation19Estimación estadística19Modèle économétrique20Econometric model20Modelo econométrico20Méthode statistique23Statistical method23Método estadístico23Test score24Score test24Méthode approchée25Approximate method25Método aproximado25Loi limite26Limit distribution26Ley límite26Sous échantillonnage27Subsampling27Submuestreo27Simulation28Simulation28Simulación28Taux convergence30Convergence rate30Relación convergencia30Méthode Monte Carlo32Monte Carlo method32Método Monte Carlo32Donnée économique35Economic data35Dato económico35Région confianceCD96Confidence regionCD96Fonction scoreCD97Score functionCD97282Resampling methods in econometrics. ConferenceMontréal CAN2001-10-13 0045-5067CJFRARCan. j. for. res. : (Print)357Forest certification costs and global forest product markets and trade : a general equilibrium analysisJIANBANG GANDepartment of Forest Science, Texas A&M UniversityCollege Station, TX 77843-2135USA1 aut.1731-17432005ENGfreINIST198643540001320471502100000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/406-0390193PACanadian journal of forest research : (Print)CANLes impacts du coût de la certification forestière sur la production, le cours et le commerce des produits forestiers ont été évalués à l'aide d'un modèle informatisé d'équilibre général sous divers scénarios définissant la certification dans des contextes tropical, tempéré et mondial. En dépit des ses impacts plus sévères et plus considérables, la certification dans un cadre mondial semble mieux acceptée par les grands pays producteurs de bois que la certification à caractère régional. Les régions qui seraient les plus affectées par la certification mondiale ne seraient pas celles qui produisent le plus de bois mais plutôt, comme en Extrême-Orient, celles qui importent beaucoup plus de produits forestiers qu'elles n'en produisent. Des accroissements de coûts de 5 % à 25 %, attribuables à la certification, entraîneraient un recul de la production mondiale de 0,3 % à 5,1 %, alors que le cours des prix mondiaux afficherait des hausses de 1,6 % à 34,6 % et les impacts sur le marché du bois d'oeuvre et sur celui des pâtes et papiers seraient beaucoup plus modérés. En général, la certification forestière aurait plus d'impact sur le commerce et les prix que sur le volume de production. Alors qu'elle causerait des détournements de flux commerciaux et des effets de substitution entre les forêts tropicales et tempérées et qu'elle affecterait les marchés régionaux de produits forestiers, globalement à l'échelle mondiale la certification forestière n'induirait pas d'effets substantiels de substitution entre les produits du bois et ceux à base d'autres matériaux. La certification forestière peut ne pas parvenir à endiguer le déboisement en milieu tropical à cause de possibles fuites (déboisement ailleurs) associées à la certification dans un contexte régional et de changements d'affectation territoriale résultant de modifications sectorielles de production à l'échelle régionale.002A33A03Certification01Certification01Certificación01Coût02Costs02Coste02Commerce international03International trade03Comercio internacional03Echange commercial04Trade04Intercambio comercial04Marché biens services05Goods services market05Mercado bienes servicios05Marché international06International market06Mercado internacional06Analyse macroéconomique07Macroeconomic analysis07Análisis macroeconómico07Modèle équilibre général08General equilibrium model08Modelo equilibrio general08Production forestière09Forest production09Produccíon forestal09Produit forestier10Forest product10Producto de la selva10Analyse coût11Cost analysis11Análisis costo11Etude marché12Market survey12Estudio mercado12Impact économique13Economic impact13Impacto económico13Pays producteur14Producing country14País productor14Zone tempérée15Temperate zone15Zona temperada15Zone tropicale16Tropical zone16Zona tropical16Forêt tropicale17Tropical forest17Bosque tropical17Filière bois18Wood line18Industrie bois19Wood industry19Industria madera19Mondialisation20Globalization20Globalización20Modèle macroéconométrique28Macroeconometric model28Modelo macroeconométrico28Simulation29Simulation29Simulación29Industrie forestièreCD96Forest products industryCD96Industria forestalCD96Protection de la forêtCD97Forest protectionCD97Protección forestalCD97Forêt de productionCD98Production forestsCD98Monte de producciónCD98Forêt tempéréeCD99Temperate forestsCD99Bosque templadoCD99Protection environnement31Environmental protection31Protección medio ambiente31Développement durable32Sustainable development32Desarrollo sostenible32Marché économique33Economic market33Mercado económico33Economie forestière34Forest economics34Economía forestal34Foresterie35Forestry35Ciencias forestales35Modèle économétrique36Econometric model36Modelo econométrico36Econométrie37Econometrics37Econometría37Economie mathématique38Mathematical economy38Economía matemática38Economie internationale39International economy39Economía internacional39Gestion forestière40Forest management40Administración forestal40Gestion durable41Sustainable management41Gestión sostenible41261 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1331Simulation-based estimation of peer effectsKRAUTH (Brian V.)Simon Fraser UniversityBurnaby BC V5A 1S6CAN1 aut.243-2712006ENGINIST164603540001423322601000000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.3/406-0387362PAJournal of econometricsNLDThe influence of peer behavior on an individual's choices has received renewed interest in recent years. However, accurate measures of this influence are difficult to obtain. Standard reduced-form methods lead to upwardly biased estimates due to simultaneity, common shocks, and nonrandom peer group selection. This paper describes a structural econometric model of peer effects in binary choice, as well as a simulated maximum likelihood estimator for its parameters. The model is nonparametrically identified under plausible restrictions, and can place informative bounds on parameter values under much weaker restrictions. Monte Carlo results indicate that this estimator performs better than a reduced form approach in a wide variety of settings. A brief application to youth smoking demonstrates the method and suggests that previous studies dramatically overstate peer influence.001A02H02N2001A02H02N3001D01A07001A02H02HInteraction sociale17Social interaction17Interacción social17Estimation biaisée18Biased estimation18Estimación sesgada18Modèle structure19Structural model19Modelo estructura19Modèle économétrique20Econometric model20Modelo econométrico20Maximum vraisemblance23Maximum likelihood23Maxima verosimilitud23Méthode Monte Carlo24Monte Carlo method24Método Monte Carlo24Méthode statistique26Statistical method26Método estadístico26Estimation statistique27Statistical estimation27Estimación estadística27Analyse donnée28Data analysis28Análisis datos28Donnée économique29Economic data29Dato económico29Mesure influenceCD96Influence measureCD96Jeu discretCD98Discrete gameCD98Estimation basée simulationCD99Simulation-based estimationCD99254 0003-9926AIMDAPArch. intern. med. : (1960)16611The cost-effectiveness of therapy with teriparatide and alendronate in women with severe osteoporosisHAU LIUMICHAUD (Kaleb)NAYAK (Smita)KARPF (David B.)OWENS (Douglas K.)GARBER (Alan M.)Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Stanford UniversityStanford, CalifUSA1 aut.4 aut.Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research, Stanford UniversityStanford, CalifUSA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.5 aut.6 aut.Department of Medicine, VA Palo Alto Health Care SystemPalo Alto, CalifUSA3 aut.5 aut.6 aut.1209-12172006ENGINIST20403540001156114000800000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.81 ref.06-0383304PAArchives of internal medicine : (1960)USABackground: Teriparatide is a promising new agent for the treatment of osteoporosis. Methods: The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of teriparatide-based strategies compared with alendronate sodium for the first-line treatment of high-risk osteoporotic women. We developed a microsimulation with a societal perspective. Key data sources include the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures, the Fracture Intervention Trial, and the Fracture Prevention Trial. We evaluated postmenopausal white women with low bone density and prevalent vertebral fracture. The interventions were usual care (UC) (calcium or vitamin D supplementation) compared with 3 strategies: 5 years of alendronate therapy, 2 years of teriparatide therapy, and 2 years of teriparatide therapy followed by 5 years of alendronate therapy (sequential teriparatide/ alendronate). The main outcome measure was cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Results: For the base-case analysis, the cost of alendronate treatment was $ 11 600 per QALY compared with UC. The cost of sequential teriparatide/alendronate therapy was $156 500 per QALY compared with alendronate. Teriparatide treatment alone was more expensive and produced a smaller increase in QALYs than alendronate. For sensitivity analysis, teriparatide alone was less cost-effective than alendronate even if its efficacy lasted 15 years after treatment cessation. Sequential teriparatide/ alendronate therapy was less cost-effective than alendronate even if fractures were eliminated during the alendronate phase, although its cost-effectiveness was less than $50 000 per QALY if the price of teriparatide decreased 60%, if used in elderly women with T scores of -4.0 or less, or if 6 months of teriparatide therapy had comparable efficacy to 2 years of treatment. Conclusions: Alendronate compares favorably to interventions accepted as cost-effective. Therapy with teriparatide alone is more expensive and produces a smaller increase in QALYs than therapy with alendronate. Sequential teriparatide/alendronate therapy appear expensive but could become more cost-effective with reductions in teriparatide price, with restriction to use in exceptionally high-risk women, or if short courses of treatment have comparable efficacy to that observed in clinical trials.002B01002B15ATériparatideNKFR01TeriparatideNKFR01TeriparatidaNKFR01Analyse coût efficacité02Cost efficiency analysis02Análisis costo eficacia02Economie santé03Health economy03Economía salud03Acide alendroniqueNKFR04Alendronic acidNKFR04Acido alendrónicoNKFR04Traitement05Treatment05Tratamiento05Femme06Woman06Mujer06Ostéoporose07Osteoporosis07Osteoporosis07Femelle09Female09Hembra09Adulte11Adult11Adulto11Grave12Severe12Grave12Médecine17Medicine17Medicina17Parathormone25Parathormone25Parathormona25Forme graveINC86AntiostéoclastiqueINC87AntiostéoporotiqueINC88Quality adjusted life yearsINC89HommeHumanHombreBisphosphonates37Bisphosphonates37Bisfosfonatos37Diphosphonique acide dérivé38Diphosphonic acid derivatives38Difosfonico ácido derivado38Système ostéoarticulaire pathologie39Diseases of the osteoarticular system39Sistema osteoarticular patología39Hormone parathyroïdienne40Parathyroid hormone40Hormona paratiroidea40254 0045-5067CJFRARCan. j. for. res. : (Print)356Estimating harvest schedules and profitability under the risk of fire disturbancePETER (Brian)NELSON (John)Industry, Trade, and Economics, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 506 West Burnside RoadVictoria, BC V8Z 1M5CAN1 aut.Department of Forest Resources Management, Faculty of Forestry, The University of British Columbia, 2045-2424 Main MallVancouver, BC V6T 1Z4CAN2 aut.1378-13882005ENGfreINIST198643540001321099301200000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.36 ref.06-0372990PACanadian journal of forest research : (Print)CANII est nécessaire d'incorporer les perturbations causées par le feu dans les plans d'aménagement forestier durable pour obtenir des estimations de la variation dans les indicateurs de niveau de récolte, de volume sur pied, de rentabilité et de structure du paysage. Un modèle de perturbation due au feu relié à un simulateur de récolte a été utilisé pour estimer la probabilité de rupture de stock compte tenu d'une gamme de niveaux de récolte et de scénarios de suppression des feux. Les résultats ont ensuite été utilisés pour estimer les niveaux de récolte soutenue sur la base d'une tolérance aux risques de rupture de stock et aux effets de la suppression des feux. Le coût des perturbations passées dues au feu a été estimé à 4 $ millions par année en termes de profits qu'aurait pu rapporter la récolte dans une forêt de 288 000 ha située dans le nord-est de la Colombie-Britannique. La suppression de 98,3 % des perturbations dans le but d'en limiter les effets à 30 % de la superficie qu'elles ont réellement affectée a été évaluée à 1,8 $ millions par année. Les niveaux plus élevés de tolérance au risque étaient associés à des niveaux de récolte et des profits à court terme plus élevés, mais les profits moyens à long terme devenaient volatiles à mesure qu'on réduisait les volumes de bois sur pied. La structure du modèle développé dans cette étude pourrait aider à définir des stratégies d'aménagement forestier résilientes et à estimer l'évolution future et la variabilité des volumes de récolte, des profits et de l'état du paysage.002A33C01002A34C02Aménagement forestier01Forest planning01Aprovechamiento forestal01Gestion forestière02Forest management02Administración forestal02Exploitation forestière03Forest logging03Explotación forestal03Ordonnancement04Scheduling04Reglamento04Rentabilité05Profitability05Rentabilidad05Risque06Risk06Riesgo06Perturbation07Perturbation07Perturbación07Incendie forêt08Forest fire08Incendio forestal08Estimation09Estimation09Estimación09Modélisation10Modeling10Modelización10Modèle économétrique11Econometric model11Modelo econométrico11Modèle simulation12Simulation model12Modelo simulación12Approvisionnement13Supply13Aprovisionamiento13Gestion durable14Sustainable management14Gestión sostenible14Lutte incendie15Firefighting15Lucha contra incendio15Bois16Wood16Madera16Volume17Volume17Volumen17Colombie britanniqueNG20British ColumbiaNG20Colombia BritánicaNG20Forêt de productionCD96Production forestsCD96Monte de producciónCD96Récolte du boisCD97Wood harvestingCD97Aprovechamiento de la maderaCD97CanadaNGCanadaNGCanadáNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNGForesterie31Forestry31Ciencias forestales31Economie forestière32Forest economics32Economía forestal32Feu végétation33Vegetation fire33Fuego vegetación33Produit forestier34Forest product34Producto de la selva34Modèle mathématique35Mathematical model35Modelo matemático35Economie mathématique36Mathematical economy36Economía matemática36Mathématiques appliquées37Applied mathematics37Matemáticas aplicadas37Econométrie38Econometrics38Econometría38Recherche opérationnelle39Operations research39Investigación operacional39247 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1921Florida activity mobility simulator : Overview and preliminary validation resultsTravel demand 2005PENDYALA (Ram M.)KITAMURA (Ryuichi)KIKUCHI (Akira)YAMAMOTO (Toshiyuki)FUJII (Satoshi)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, ENB118, 4202 East Fowler AvenueTampa, FL 33620-5350USA1 aut.Department of Urban Management, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmachiSakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501JPN2 aut.3 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, Nagoya University, Furo-choChikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8603JPN4 aut.Transportation Social Psychology Laboratory, Department of Civil Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 1-12-1 0-okayamaMeguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8552JPN5 aut.123-1302005ENGINIST10459B3540001329067201400000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.28 ref.06-0371627PATransportation research recordUSAThe development of modeling systems for activity-based travel demand ushers in a new era in transportation demand forecasting and planning. A comprehensive multimodal activity-based system for forecasting travel demand was developed for implementation in Florida and resulted in the Florida Activity Mobility Simulator (FAMOS). Two main modules compose the FAMOS microsimulation model system for modeling activity-travel patterns of individuals: the Household Attributes Generation System and the Prism-Constrained Activity-Travel Simulator. FAMOS was developed and estimated with household activity and travel data collected in southeast Florida in 2000. Results of the model development effort are promising and demonstrate the applicability of activity-based model systems in travel demand forecasting. An overview of the model system, a description of its features and capabilities, and preliminary validation results are provided.001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Simulateur02Simulator02Simulador02Mobilité03Mobility03Movilidad03FlorideNG04FloridaNG04FloridaNG04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Demande transport06Transport demand06Demanda transporte06Planification07Planning07Planificación07Voyage08Travel08Viaje08Prévision demande09Demand forecasting09Previsión demanda09Evaluation performance10Performance evaluation10Evaluación prestación10Modèle simulation11Simulation model11Modelo simulación11Ménage12Household12Familia12Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG247PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1921Market-based framework for forecasting parking cost in traditional and microsimulation modeling applicationsTravel demand 2005ERHARDT (Gregory D.)KURTH (David L.)SABINA (Erik E.)MYUNG (Smith)Denver Regional Council of Governments, 4500 Cherry Creek Drive South, Suite 800Denver, CO 80246USA1 aut.3 aut.Parsons, 1700 Broadway, Suite 600Denver, CO 80290USA2 aut.Manuel Padron and Associates, 630 17th Street, Suite 630Denver, CO 80202USA4 aut.79-882005ENGINIST10459B3540001329067201000000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.18 ref.06-0371623PATransportation research recordUSAParking cost is an important variable in determining mode choice, yet it receives little attention in most travel forecasting models. This paper presents a framework for modeling parking supply and cost that has three advantages over most parking cost models: a market-based approach is used to equilibrate parking demand with parking supply; actual parking costs paid by groups of travelers rather than average parking costs are estimated for each transportation analysis zone; and estimates are made from longitudinal data. This framework has been applied successfully in a traditional four-step travel model and is being used in practice. It also provides additional opportunities for application in a segmented manner or in concert with a microsimulation modeling approach. Mode choice results based on aggregate and segmented applications of the framework are substantially different. Improved forecasting of parking costs should be an important consideration in any new model development. In recent years, substantial efforts have been focused on household interactions and activity modeling. Although the understanding of travel behavior has improved substantially, the improved techniques still depend on good input data for credible forecasts.001D15B001D15CTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Analyse coût02Cost analysis02Análisis costo02Stationnement03Parking03Estacionamiento03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Application05Application05Aplicación05Choix modal06Modal choice06Elección modal06Modélisation07Modeling07Modelización07Marché08Markets08Mercado08247PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1921Urban commercial vehicle movement model for Calgary, Alberta, canadaTravel demand 2005STEFAN (K. J.)MCMILLAN (J. D. P.)HUNT (J. D.)City of Calgary, P.O. Box 2100, Station M, #8124Calgary, Alberta T2P 2M5CAN1 aut.2 aut.University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive, NWCalgary, Alberta T2N 1N4CAN3 aut.1-102005ENGINIST10459B3540001329067200100000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.11 ref.06-0371614PATransportation research recordUSACommercial vehicle movements compose perhaps 15% of all urban vehicle trips and produce large impacts in key areas, such as congestion, emissions, road wear, and industrial area traffic. A system for modeling such movements was developed for Calgary, Alberta, Canada. It is a novel application of an agent-based microsimulation framework that uses a tour-based approach and emphasizes important elements of urban commercial movement, Including the role of service delivery, light commercial vehicles, and trip chaining. The microsimulation uses Monte Carlo techniques to assign tour purpose, vehicle type, next-stop purpose, next-stop location, and next-stop duration. Tours are &dquot;grown&dquot; with a return-to-establishment alternative within the next-stop purpose allocation, which is consistent with the nature of tour making in urban commercial movements. The Monte Carlo probabilities are established with the use of a series of logit models, with coefficients estimated on the basis of observed behavior of different commercial movement segments. The estimation results in themselves provide insights into the revealed behavior that have not been available previously.001D15B001D15CTransport urbain01Urban transportation01Transporte urbano01Transport routier02Road transportation02Transporte por carretera02Véhicule utilitaire03Commercial vehicle03Vehículo utilitario03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04AlbertaNG05AlbertaNG05AlbertaNG05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Mouvement07Motion07Movimiento07Méthode Monte Carlo08Monte Carlo method08Método Monte Carlo08Affectation trafic09Traffic assignment09Afectación tráfico09Tour itinéraire10Tour10Vuelta10CanadaNGCanadaNGCanadáNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG247PSIPSI 0090-5364ASTSC7Ann. stat.342Fitting an error distribution in some heteroscedastic time series modelsKOUL (Hira L.)SHIQING LINGMichigan State UniversityUSAHong Kong University of Science and TechnologyHKG994-10122006ENGINIST3079A13540001157549601600000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.30 ref.06-0342806PAAnnals of statisticsUSAThis paper addresses the problem of fitting a known distribution to the innovation distribution in a class of stationary and ergodic time series models. The asymptotic null distribution of the usual Kolmogornv-Smirnov test based on the residuals generally depends on the underlying model parameters and the error distribution. To overcome the dependence on the underlying model parameters, we propose that tests be based on a vector of certain weighted residual empirical processes. Under the null hypothesis and under minimal moment conditions, this vector of processes is shown to converge weakly to a vector of independent copies of a Gaussian process whose covariance function depends only on the fitted distribution and not on the model. Under certain local alternatives, the proposed test is shown to have nontrivial asymptotic power. The Monte Carlo critical values of this test are tabulated when fitting standard normal and double exponential distributions. The results obtained are shown to be applicable to GARCH and ARMA-GARCH models, the often used models in econometrics and finance. A simulation study shows that the test has satisfactory size and power for finite samples at these models. The paper also contains an asymptotic uniform expansion result for a general weighted residual empirical process useful in heteroscedastic models under minimal moment conditions, a result of independent interest.001A02H02G001A02H02M001A02H01HModèle non linéaire17Non linear model17Modelo no lineal17Test ajustement18Goodness of fit test18Prueba ajuste18Hétéroscedasticité21Heteroscedasticity21Heteroscedasticidad21Série temporelle22Time series22Serie temporal22Série stationnaire23Stationary series23Serie estacionaria23Test hypothèse25Hypothesis test25Test hipótesis25Processus empirique26Empirical process26Proceso empírico26Convergence faible28Weak convergence28Convergencia débil28Processus Gauss29Gaussian process29Proceso Gauss29Méthode Monte Carlo32Monte Carlo method32Método Monte Carlo32Valeur critique33Critical value33Valor crítico33Loi normale34Gaussian distribution34Curva Gauss34Loi exponentielle35Exponential distribution35Ley exponencial35Modèle ARMA36ARMA model36Modelo ARMA36Modèle économétrique37Econometric model37Modelo econométrico37Econométrie38Econometrics38Econometría38Finance39Finance39Finanzas39Simulation statistique40Statistical simulation40Simulación estadística40Puissance test41Test power41Potencia test41Modèle empirique45Empirical model45Modelo empírico45Méthode statistique46Statistical method46Método estadístico46Processus pondéréINC70Loi asymptotiqueINC72Loi stationnaireCD96Stationary distributionCD96Fonction covarianceCD97Covariance functionCD97Modèle GARCHCD98GARCH modelCD98227 408L'incidence du système de prélèvements et de transferts sociaux sur le niveau de vie des familles en 2004 : une approche par microsimulationCOURTIOUX (Pierre)LAIB (Nadine)LE MINEZ (Sylvie)MIROUSE (Benoît)2005-06FRE12 p.BDSP/MIN-SANTEBIB00001810880006-0333386PMETUDES ET RESULTATSFRALe système socio-fiscal français comprend, au delà des prestations familiales, un ensemble de dispositifs qui tient compte de la composition de la famille, notamment l'impôt sur le revenu, les minima sociaux et les aides au logement. Ainsi, le montant global des prestations versées aux familles, constituant le coeur de la politique familiale, peut être estimé au travers des comptes de la protection sociale élaborés chaque année par la Direction de la Recherche, des Etudes de l'Evaluation et des Statistiques (DREES). Selon cette source, 38,2 milliards d'euros ont été versés aux ménages en 2003, au titre des prestations &dquot;famille&dquot; et 5,8 milliards d'euros au titre de la maternité, soit 2,8% du produit intérieur brut. De manière générale, les transferts et prélèvements contribuent significativement, surtout pour les plus modestes, à la prise en charge de la variation de niveau de vie liée à la présence d'enfants et réduisent sensiblement l'écart moyen de niveau de vie entre familles et ménages sans enfant002B30A11Milieu familialFamily environmentMedio familiarProtection socialeWelfare aidsProtección socialPolitique socialeSocial policyPolítica socialNiveau vieStandard of livingRevenu individuelPersonal incomeRenta personalPolitique fiscaleFiscal policyPolítica fiscalDonnée statistiqueStatistical dataDato estadístico219 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1902Spatial econometric models for panel data : Incorporating spatial and temporal dataTransportation and land development 2005FRAZIER (Christopher)KOCKELMAN (Kara M.)University of Texas at Austin, 6.9 East Cockrell Jr. HallAustin, TX 78712-1076USA1 aut.2 aut.80-902005ENGINIST10459B3540001151503901000000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.21 ref.06-0307121PATransportation research recordUSACities are constantly evolving, complex systems, and modeling them, both theoretically and empirically, is a complicated task. However, understanding the manner in which developed regions change over time and space can be important for transportation researchers and planners. In this paper, methodologies for modeling developed areas are presented, and spatial and temporal effects of the data are incorporated into the methodologies. The work emphasizes spatial relationships between various geographic, land use, and demographic variables that characterize fine zones across regions. It derives and combines land cover data for the Austin, Texas, region from a panel of satellite images and U.S. Census of Population data. Models for population, vehicle ownership, and developed, residential, and agricultural land cover are estimated; the effects of space and time on the models are shown to be statistically significant. Simulations of population and land cover for the year 2020 help to illustrate the strengths and limitations of the models.001D14A06001D15A295Aménagement urbain01Urban planning01Planeamiento urbano01Occupation sol02Land use02Ocupación terreno02Analyse spatiale03Spatial analysis03Análisis espacial03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Modèle économétrique05Econometric model05Modelo econométrico05Transports06Transportation06Transportes06Démographie07Demography07Demografía07Problème recouvrement08Covering problem08Problema recubrimiento08Modèle régression09Regression model09Modelo regresión09Régression linéaire10Linear regression10Regresión lineal10Régression logistique11Logistic regression11Regresión logística11Modèle prévision12Forecast model12Modelo previsión12Simulation13Simulation13Simulación13198PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1931Estimating the safety and operational impact of raised medians and driveway density : Experiences from Texas and Oklahoma case studiesPlanning and analysis 2005EISELE (William L.)FRAWLEY (William E.)Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System, 3135 TAMUCollege Station, TX 77843-3135USA1 aut.Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System, 110 North Davis Drive, Suite 101Arlington, TX 76013USA2 aut.108-1162005ENGINIST10459B3540001151477601400000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.14 ref.06-0307108PATransportation research recordUSAThis paper describes research sponsored by the Texas Department of Transportation to investigate the operational and safety impact of raised medians and driveway consolidation. Operational effects (travel time, speed, and delay) were investigated through microsimulation on three field test corridors and three theoretical corridors. Safety effects were investigated along 11 test corridors to estimate relationships between crash rates and access point densities as well as the presence of raised medians or two-way left-turn lanes (TWLTLs). The research demonstrates that access management effects are case specific and that microsimulation can assess these unique operational effects. For the case studies investigated, replacing a TWLTL with a raised median resulted in an increase in travel time on two test corridors and a decrease on one test corridor. Small increases in travel time were found with the theoretical corridors as well. The travel time differences are based on the traffic level and location and number of the raised median openings. When present, the relatively small increases in travel time, and subsequent speed and delay, appear to be outweighed by the reduction in the number of conflict points and increased safety. Detailed crash analysis on 11 test corridors indicated that as access point density increases, crash rates increase. This trend holds regardless of the median type. For test corridors in which crash data were investigated before and after the raised median installation, a reduction in the crash rate was always found. Finally, future research needs are identified, including the need to investigate operational and safety impact over a broader range of geometric conditions and longer corridors than investigated here.001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Sécurité trafic02Traffic safety02Seguridad tráfico02Etude cas03Case study03Estudio caso03Expérience04Experience04Experiencia04TexasNG05TexasNG05TexasNG05OklahomaNG06OklahomaNG06OklahomaNG06Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Corridor08Corridor08Corredor08Analyse qualitative09Qualitative analysis09Análisis cualitativo09Analyse quantitative10Quantitative analysis10Análisis cuantitativo10Recommandation11Recommendation11Recomendación11Durée trajet12Travel time12Duración trayecto12Vitesse déplacement13Speed13Velocidad desplazamiento13Accident circulation14Traffic accident14Accidente tráfico14Analyse fonctionnement15Operation study15Análisis funcionamiento15Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG198PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1931Making household microsimulation of travel and activities accessible to plannersPlanning and analysis 2005WALKER (Joan L.)Boston University and Caliper Corporation, Center for Transportation Studies, 675 Commonwealth AvenueBoston, MA 02215USA1 aut.38-482005ENGINIST10459B3540001151477600500000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.21 ref.06-0307099PATransportation research recordUSAThere is a large gap between the aggregate, trip-based models used by transportation planning agencies and the activity-based, microsimulation methods espoused by those at the forefront of research. The modeling environment presented here is intended to bridge this gap by providing a palatable way for planning agencies to move toward advanced methods. Three components to bridging the gap are emphasized: an incremental approach, a demonstration of clear gains, and a provision of an environment that eases initial implementation and allows for expansion. The modeling environment (called STEP2) is a household microsimulator, developed in TransCAD, that can be used to implement a four-step model as well as models with longer-term behavior and trip chaining. An implementation for southern Nevada is described, and comparisons are made with the region's aggregate four-step model. The models perform similarly in numerous ways. A key advantage to the microsimulator is that it provides impacts by socioeconomic group (essential for equity analysis) and individual trip movements (for use in a vehicle microsimulator). A sensitivity analysis indicates that the microsimulation model has less inelastic cross elasticity of transit demand with respect to auto travel times than the aggregate model (aggregation error). The trade-off is that microsimulators have simulation error; results are presented regarding the severity of this error. This work shows that a shift to microsimulation does not necessarily require substantial investment to achieve many of the benefits. One of the greatest advantages is a flexible environment that can expand to include additional sensitivity to demographics and transportation policy variables.001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Planification02Planning02Planificación02Ménage03Household03Familia03Voyage04Travel04Viaje04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Analyse comportementale07Behavioral analysis07Análisis conductual07Implémentation08Implementation08Implementación08NevadaNG09NevadaNG09NevadaNG09Modèle agrégé10Aggregate model10Modelo agregado10Analyse sensibilité11Sensitivity analysis11Análisis sensibilidad11Statistique12Statistics12Estadística12Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG198PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1931Accounting for the impact of heavy truck traffic in volume-delay functions in transportation planning modelsPlanning and analysis 2005YUN (Seongsoon)WHITE (Wade W.)LAMB (Daniel R.)YONGQIANG WUUniversity of Incheon, 177 Dowha-DongNam-Gu, Incheon 402-749KOR1 aut.CITILABS, 222 Prince George Street, Suite 100Annapolis, MD 21401USA2 aut.Florida Department of Transportation, 11201 North McKinley DriveTampa, FL 33612USA3 aut.Gannett Fleming, Inc., 9119 Corporate Lake Drive, Suite 150Tampa, FL 33634USA4 aut.8-172005ENGINIST10459B3540001151477600200000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.7 ref.06-0307096PATransportation research recordUSATruck traffic accounts for a substantial fraction of the traffic stream in many regions and is often the source of localized traffic congestion. This paper presents the analysis and findings that recommend updated volume-delay relationships for transportation planning models that account for total volume, roadway capacity, and the mix of heavy truck traffic. The traditional Bureau of Public Roads function representing the speed-flow relationships for roadway facilities is modified to include the impact of truck traffic specifically. Several new speed-flow functions based on microsimulation results for freeways and urban arterials have been developed.001D15B001D15CPlanification01Planning01Planificación01Transport routier02Road transportation02Transporte por carretera02Transport marchandise03Freight transportation03Transporte mercadería03Etude impact04Impact study04Estudio impacto04Poids lourd05Heavy truck05Peso pesado05Ecoulement trafic06Traffic flow06Flujo tráfico06Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Comptabilité08Accounting08Contabilidad08Autoroute09Freeway09Autopista09Vitesse déplacement10Speed10Velocidad desplazamiento10Zone urbaine11Urban area11Zona urbana11198PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1935Calibration of microsimulation models using nonparametric statistical techniquesInformation systems and technologyKIM (Seung-Jun)KIM (Wonho)RILETT (L. R.)Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System, 3136 TAMUCollege Station, TX 77B43-3136USA1 aut.Mid- America Transportation Center, University of Nebraska, W348 Nebraska HallLincoln, NE 68588-0531USA2 aut.3 aut.111-1192005ENGINIST10459B3540001151910601300000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.19 ref.06-0305048PATransportation research recordUSAThe calibration of traffic microsimulation models has received widespread attention in transportation modeling. A recent concern is whether these models can simulate traffic conditions realistically. The recent widespread deployment of intelligent transportation systems in North America has provided an opportunity to obtain traffic-related data. In some cases the distribution of the traffic data rather than simple measures of central tendency such as the mean, Is available. This paper examines a method for calibrating traffic microsimulation models so that simulation results, such as travel time, represent observed distributions obtained from the Held. The approach is based on developing a statistically based objective function for use in an automated calibration procedure. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, the Moses test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test are used to test the hypothesis that the travel time distribution of the simulated and the observed travel times are statistically identical. The approach is tested on a signalized arterial roadway in Houston, Texas. It is shown that potentially many different parameter sets result in statistically valid simulation results. More important, it is shown that using simple metrics, such as the mean absolute error, may lead to erroneous calibration results.001D15BGestion trafic01Traffic management01Gestión tráfico01Modèle simulation02Simulation model02Modelo simulación02Etalonnage03Calibration03Contraste03Modèle statistique04Statistical model04Modelo estadístico04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Implémentation06Implementation06Implementación06Durée trajet07Travel time07Duración trayecto07Fonction objectif08Objective function08Función objetivo08Algorithme génétique09Genetic algorithm09Algoritmo genético09Résultat10Result10Resultado10198PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1925Advanced transit signal priority control with online microsimulation -based transit prediction modelFreeway operations, high-occupancy vehicle systems, traffic signal systems, and regional transportation systems management 2005LEE (Jinwoo)SHALABY (Amer)GREENOUGH (John)BOWIE (Mike)HUNG (Stanley)Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George StreetToronto, Ontario M5S 1A4CAN1 aut.2 aut.Transportation Systems Division, LEA Consulting Ltd., 625 Cochrane Drive, Suite 900Markham, Ontario L3R 9R9CAN3 aut.5 aut.Fortran Traffic Systems, 470 Midwest RoadToronto, Ontario M1P 4Y5CAN4 aut.185-1942005ENGINIST10459B3540001151905601900000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.06-0303222PATransportation research recordUSAAn advanced transit signal priority (TSP) control method is presented: it provides priority operation in response to real-time traffic and transit conditions. A high-performance online microscopic simulation model was developed for the purpose of predicting transit travel time along an intersection approach. The proposed method was evaluated through application to a hypothetical intersection with a nearside bus stop. The performance of the proposed method was compared with that of normal signal operation without TSP and a conventional signal priority method. The experimental results indicated that the developed method provided efficient and effective priority operation for both transit vehicles and automobiles. The proposed method significantly reduced transit vehicle delays as well as side-street traffic delay compared with conventional active priority control.001D15C001D15B001D14O05295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Gestion trafic02Traffic management02Gestión tráfico02Modèle prévision03Forecast model03Modelo previsión03Priorité04Priority04Prioridad04Feu signalisation05Traffic lights05Semáforo05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Temps réel07Real time07Tiempo real07Durée trajet08Travel time08Duración trayecto08Intersection09Intersection09Intersección09Résultat expérimental10Experimental result10Resultado experimental10Scénario11Script11Argumento11Recommandation12Recommendation12Recomendación12191PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1925Methodology for performance optimization of ramp control strategies through microsimulationFreeway operations, high-occupancy vehicle systems, traffic signal systems, and regional transportation systems management 2005BEEGALA (Adinarayana)HOURDAKIS (John)MICHALOPOULOS (Panos G.)Parsons Brinkerhoff Quade & Douglas, Inc., 999 3rd Avenue, Suite 2200Seattle, WA 98104USA1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, 500 Pillsbury Drive SEMinneapolis, MN 55455USA2 aut.3 aut.87-982005ENGINIST10459B3540001151905601000000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.32 ref.06-0303213PATransportation research recordUSAFreeway ramp control has been successfully implemented since the mid-1960s as an efficient and viable freeway management strategy. However, the effectiveness of any ramp control strategy is largely dependent on site-specific customization and calibration, preferably before its deployment. A general methodology for such performance optimization of ramp control strategies is proposed in a microscopic simulation environment as an alternative to trial-and-error field experimentation. The applicability of the methodology is demonstrated by implementation on Minnesota's new stratified zone metering (SZM). Further, the effect of external factors, such as traffic demand variation and incidents, on SZM control and optimization results was also studied. Results show that the optimization methodology is highly effective depending on the optimization objective, test site characteristics, and demand levels.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Autoroute02Freeway02Autopista02Stratégie03Strategy03Estrategia03Régulation trafic04Traffic control04Regulación tráfico04Gestion trafic05Traffic management05Gestión tráfico05Optimisation06Optimization06Optimización06Evaluation performance07Performance evaluation07Evaluación prestación07Efficacité08Efficiency08Eficacia08Modèle simulation09Simulation model09Modelo simulación09Impact environnement10Environment impact10Impacto medio ambiente10Essai en place11In situ test11Ensayo en sitio11MinnesotaNG12MinnesotaNG12MinesotaNG12Implémentation13Implementation13Implementación13Résultat14Result14Resultado14Scénario15Script15Argumento15Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG191PSIPSI 0965-8564Transp. res., Part A Policy pract.402Microsimulation models incorporating both demand and supply dynamicsRONGHUI LIUVAN VLIET (Dirck)WATLING (David)Institute for Transport Studies, University of LeedsLeeds LS2 9JTGBR1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.125-1502006ENGINIST12377A3540001352579600300000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.2 p.1/206-0193332PATransportation research. Part A, Policy and practiceGBRThere has been rapid growth in interest in real-time transport strategies over the last decade, ranging from automated highway systems and responsive traffic signal control to incident management and driver information systems. The complexity of these strategies, in terms of the spatial and temporal interactions within the transport system, has led to a parallel growth in the application of traffic microsimulation models for the evaluation and design of such measures, as a remedy to the limitations faced by conventional static, macroscopic approaches. However, while this naturally addresses the immediate impacts of the measure, a difficulty that remains is the question of how the secondary impacts, specifically the effect on route and departure time choice of subsequent trips, may be handled in a consistent manner within a microsimulation framework. The paper describes a modelling approach to road network traffic, in which the emphasis is on the integrated microsimulation of individual trip-makers' decisions and individual vehicle movements across the network. To achieve this it represents directly individual drivers' choices and experiences as they evolve from day-to-day, combined with a detailed within-day traffic simulation model of the space-time trajectories of individual vehicles according to car-following and lane-changing rules and intersection regulations. It therefore models both day-to-day and within-day variability in both demand and supply conditions, and so, we believe, is particularly suited for the realistic modelling of real-time strategies such as those listed above. The full model specification is given, along with details of its algorithmic implementation. A number of representative numerical applications are presented, including: sensitivity studies of the impact of day-to-day variability; an application to the evaluation of alternative signal control policies; and the evaluation of the introduction of bus-only lanes in a sub-network of Leeds. Our experience demonstrates that this modelling framework is computationally feasible as a method for providing a fully internally consistent, microscopic, dynamic assignment, incorporating both within- and between-day demand and supply dynamics.001D15B001D15CGestion trafic01Traffic management01Gestión tráfico01Modèle simulation02Simulation model02Modelo simulación02Trafic routier03Road traffic03Tráfico carretera03Régulation trafic04Traffic control04Regulación tráfico04Feu signalisation05Traffic lights05Semáforo05Dynamique06Dynamics06Dinámica06Approvisionnement07Supply07Aprovisionamiento07Réseau routier08Road network08Red carretera08Choix09Choice09Elección09Itinéraire10Route10Itinerario10Stratégie11Strategy11Estrategia11Temps réel12Real time12Tiempo real12Demande transport13Transport demand13Demanda transporte13Variabilité14Variability14Variabilidad14Application15Application15Aplicación15121PSIPSI 1010-7940EJCSE7Eur. j. cardio-thorac. surg.293Comparison of Carpentier-Edwards pericardial and supraannular bioprostheses in aortic valve replacementPUVIMANASINGHE (John P. A.)TAKKENBERG (Johanna J. M.)EIJKEMANS (Marinus J. C.)VAN HERWERDEN (Lex A.)JAMIESON (W. R. Eric)GRUNKEMEIER (Gary L.)HABBEMA (J. Dik F.)BOGERS (Ad J. J. C.)Department of Cardio-thoracic Surgery, Erasmus University Medical CenterRotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.4 aut.8 aut.Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical CenterRotterdamNLD3 aut.7 aut.University of British ColumbiaVancouverCAN5 aut.Providence Health SystemPortland, ORUSA6 aut.374-3792006ENGINIST213073540001328409701700000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.25 ref.06-0161328PAEuropean journal of cardio-thoracic surgeryNLDObjective: This study aimed at calculating and comparing the long-term outcomes of patients after aortic valve replacement with the Carpentier-Edwards bovine pericardial and porcine supraannular bioprostheses using microsimulation. Methods: We conducted a meta-analysis of eight studies on the Carpentier-Edwards pericardial valves (2685 patients, 12,250 patient-years) and five studies on the supraannular valves (3796 patients, 20,127 patient-years) to estimate the occurrence rates of valve-related events. Eighteen-year follow-up data sets were used to construct age-dependent Weibull curves that described their structural valvular deterioration. The estimates were entered into a microsimulation model, which was used to calculate the outcomes of patients after aortic valve replacement. Results: The annual hazard rates for thromboembolism after aortic valve replacement were 1.35% and 1.76% for the pericardial and supraannular valves, respectively. For a 65-year-old male, median time to structural valvular deterioration was 20.1 and 22.2 years while the lifetime risk of reoperation due to structural valvular deterioration was 18.3% and 14.0%, respectively. The life expectancy of the patient was 10.8 and 10.9 years and event-free life expectancy 9.0 and 8.8 years, respectively. Conclusions: The microsimulation methodology provides insight into the prognosis of a patient after aortic valve replacement with any given valve type. Both the Carpentier-Edwards pericardial and supraannular valve types perform satisfactorily, especially in elderly patients, and show no appreciable difference in long-term outcomes when implanted in the aortic position.002B25E002B11002B12Etude comparative09Comparative study09Estudio comparativo09Péricarde10Pericardium10Pericardio10Valvule aortique11Aortic valve11Válvula aórtica11Remplacement12Replacement12Reemplazo12Pronostic13Prognosis13Pronóstico13Modélisation14Modeling14Modelización14Appareil circulatoire15Circulatory system15Aparato circulatorio15Cardiologie17Cardiology17Cardiología17Phlébologie18Phlebology18Flebología18100OTOOTO 0954-7118Int. j. glob. energy issues251-2An improved historical simulation approach for estimating 'value at risk' of crude oil priceYING FANJIAO (Jian-Ling)Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences100080 BeijingCHN1 aut.2 aut.83-932006ENGINIST275243540001347755000500000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.15 ref.06-0126391PAInternational journal of global energy issuesCHEValue at risk, an effective measurement of financial risk, can be used to forecast the risk associated with oil price movements. In this paper, we propose an improved Historical Simulation Approach, EDFAAF, which is based on a former approach, HSAF. By comparing it with the HSAF approach, we give evidence to show that EDFAAF has a more effective forecasting power in the field of oil risk management.001D06A01C2B001D06A01A230Economie pétrolière01Oil economy01Economía petrolera01PétroleFX02PetroleumFX02PetróleoFX02Echange commercial03Trade03Intercambio comercial03Analyse risque04Risk analysis04Análisis riesgo04Gestion risque05Risk management05Gestión riesgo05Prévision06Forecasting06Previsión06Simulation07Simulation07Simulación07Modèle économétrique08Econometric model08Modelo econométrico08Vérification09Verification09Verificación09Série temporelle10Time series10Serie temporal10Valeur exposéeCD96Value at riskCD96079 0954-7118Int. j. glob. energy issues251-2Planning the future of Botswana's coalFICHANI (Khaulani)LABYS (Walter C.)Natural Resource Economics Program, West Virginia University, P.O. Box 6108Morgantown, WV 26506-6108USA1 aut.2 aut.60-822006ENGINIST275243540001347755000400000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.2 p.1/406-0126390PAInternational journal of global energy issuesCHEBotswana has vast proven deposits of steam coal, which, for a long time, the government has wanted to develop but without much success. The main objectives of this study are • to forecast possible coal exports from Botswana and the land routes for these exports • to determine the competitiveness of Botswana's coal in world steam coal trade • to make recommendations on the appropriate policy for the exploitation of this coal. To accomplish these objectives, we construct a model of the global steam coal trade and apply this model to forecast the likely optimal size of mine, timing of capacity, and choice of export port for the years 2005 and 2010 from a 2000 base forecast year. The results of our regional analysis suggest that Botswana's coal exports are competitive in Asia and Western Europe. These results are shown to be least sensitive to changes in rail transportation costs and marginal supply costs but more sensitive to changes in capital costs for mine development.001D06A01C2A230Economie charbonnière01Coal economy01Economía carbonera01BotswanaNG02BotswanaNG02BotswanaNG02Charbon vapeur03Steam coal03Carbón vapor03Etude marché04Market survey04Estudio mercado04Commerce international05International trade05Comercio internacional05Exportation06Export06Exportación06Compétitivité07Competitiveness07Competitividad07Production08Production08Producción08Optimisation économique09Economic optimization09Optimización económica09Stratégie optimale10Optimal strategy10Estrategia optima10Modèle économétrique11Econometric model11Modelo econométrico11Demande12Demand12Petición12Prévision13Forecasting13Previsión13Court terme14Short term14Corto plazo14Long terme15Long term15Largo plazo15Simulation16Simulation16Simulación16AfriqueNGAfricaNGAfricaNG079 0928-7655Resour. energy econ.281Russian exports of emission permits under the Kyoto Protocol : The interplay with non-competitive fuel marketsHAGEM (Cathrine)MAESTAD (Ottar)Department of Economics, University of OsloNOR1 aut.Chr. Michelsen Institute, P.O. Box 6033 Postterminalen5892 BergenNOR2 aut.54-732006ENGINIST178353540001348082800400000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.26 ref.06-0093128PAResource and energy economicsNLDThe paper analyses optimal strategies for a country that has market power in an international market for emission permits at the same time as a domestic fuel producer participates in a non-competitive fuel export market. In particular, the effects of coordinating fuel and permit exports are explored. We show that such coordination may either increase or reduce the optimal mark-up on permits, depending on the degree of substitution between alternative fuels. When the fuel market is oligopolistic, coordination of permit and fuel exports may lead to a strategic disadvantage in the fuel market, which makes such coordination unprofitable. However, illustrative numerical simulations suggest that Russia will benefit from coordinating its permit exports with its oil and gas exports during the Kyoto commitment period.001D06A01C1001D06A01C2C230Economie énergie01Energy economy01Economía energía01Exportation02Export02Exportación02Gaz naturel03Natural gas03Gas natural03Permis émission04Emission permit04Permiso de emisión04Structure marché05Market structure05Estructura mercado05Modèle économétrique06Econometric model06Modelo econométrico06Coordination07Coordination07Coordinación07Etude marché08Market survey08Estudio mercado08Faisabilité09Feasibility09Practicabilidad09Analyse économique10Economic analysis10Análisis económico10Stratégie optimale11Optimal strategy11Estrategia optima11Simulation numérique12Numerical simulation12Simulación numérica12Fédération de RussieNG13Russian FederationNG13Federación de RusiaNG13EurasieNGEurasiaNGEurasiaNG058 0197-6729JATRDCJ. adv. transp.392Improved modeling of park-and-ride transfer time : Capturing the within-day dynamicsTSANG (Flavia W. K.)SHALABY (Amer S.)MILLER (Eric J.)Department of Civil Engineering, University of TorontoToronto, OntarioCAN1 aut.2 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, Joint Program in Transportation, University of TorontoToronto, OntarioCAN3 aut.117-1372005ENGINIST150093540001384240700100000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.12 ref.06-0075722PAJournal of advanced transportationCANAn important factor that affects park-and-ride demand is transfer time. However, conventional park-and-ride demand models treat transfer time as a single value, without considering the time-of-day effect. Since early comers usually occupy spots closer to the entrance, their transfer times are shorter. Hence, there is a relationship between arrival time and transfer time. To analyze this relationship, a microsimulation model is developed. The model simulates the queuing system at the entrance and the pattern that parking spots are occupied in the parking lot over time. As expected, the model output illustrates an increasing relationship between arrival time and transfer time. This relationship has significant implication in mode choice models because it means that the attractiveness of park-and-ride depends on the time of arrival at the park-and-ride lot. This model of park-and-ride transfer time can potentially improve travel demand forecasting, as well as facilitate the operation and design of park-and-ride facilities.001D15B001D15CPolitique transport01Transportation policy01Política transporte01Park and ride02Park and ride02Park and ride02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Méthode analyse04Analysis method04Método análisis04Temps05Time05Tiempo05Transfert06Transfer06Transferencia06Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Modèle prévision08Forecast model08Modelo previsión08Système attente09Queueing system09Sistema fila espera09Stationnement10Parking10Estacionamiento10Prévision demande11Demand forecasting11Previsión demanda11Choix modal12Modal choice12Elección modal12Enquête sur terrain13Field inquiry13Encuesta sobre terreno13Durée trajet14Travel time14Duración trayecto14044PSIPSI L'impact des réformes des retraites de 1993 et de 2003 : une analyse à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation ARTEMISEconomie du vieillissement : tome 2. Age et protection socialeDEBRAND (T.)PRIVAT (A.G.)JOEL (M.E.)dir.WITTWER (J.)dir.Association d'Economie Sociale. (A.E.S.). Paris.FRA75-892005FREL'Harmattan2-747-59161-125e journées de l'Association d'économie socialeFRA2005BDSP/IRDESR1605, A3323/2, CODBAR 004702588004 ref.06-0073266CAFRACette communication a été présentée lors des 25e journées d'Economie sociale organisées par l'Association d'économie sociale, en septembre 2005, sur le thème de l'économie du vieillissement. Cette contribution présente les résultats des évaluations, à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation ARTEMIS, de l'impact des réformes pour maintenir l'équilibre du régime de retraite par répartition, sur les différentes générations des retraités du secteur privé. Les effets des réformes de 1993 et de 2003 sont comparés en étudiant les différences inter et intra-générationnelles002B30A11SénescenceSenescenceSenescenciaPersonne âgéeElderlyAncianoRetraiteRetirementJubilaciónSecteur privéPrivate sectorSector privadoAgeAgeEdadSexeSexSexoThéorieTheoryTeoríaAnalyse économiqueEconomic analysisAnálisis económicoEtude impactImpact studyEstudio impactoProjection perspectivePerspective projectionProyección perspectivaFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGHommeHumanHombreEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG044 0140-9883EECODREnergy econ.276Modeling and forecasting cointegrated relationships among heavy oil and product pricesLANZA (Alessandro)MANERA (Matteo)GIOVANNINI (Massimo)Eni S.p.ARomeITA1 aut.Fondazione Eni Enrico MatteiMilanITA1 aut.CRENoSCagliariITA1 aut.Department of Statistics, University of Milan-BicoccaITA2 aut.Fondazione Eni Enrico AfatteiMilanITA2 aut.Department of Economics, Boston CollegeUSA3 aut.831-8482005ENGINIST182313540001351079800200000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.17 ref.06-0018023PAEnergy economicsGBRIn this paper we investigate heavy crude oil and product price dynamics. We present a comparison among ten prices series of heavy crude oils and fourteen price series of petroleum products in two distinct areas (Europe and Americas) over the period 1994-2002. We provide a complete analysis of crude oil and product price dynamics using cointegration and error correction models (ECM). Subsequently we use the ECM specification to predict crude oil prices over the horizon January 2002-June 2002. Finally we compare the forecasting performance of ECM with a naïve model in first differences which does not exploit any cointegrating relation.001D06A01C2B230Economie pétrolière01Oil economy01Economía petrolera01Pétrole brut02Crude oil02Petróleo bruto02Pétrole lourd03Heavy oil03Petróleo pesado03Prix04Price04Precio04Produit pétrolier05Petroleum product05Producto petrolero05Modèle économétrique06Econometric model06Modelo econométrico06Cointégration07Cointegration07Cointegración07EssenceFX08GasolineFX08GasolinaFX08Gas oil09Gas oil09Gasóleo09Fuel oil10Fuel oil10Fuel oil10EuropeNG11EuropeNG11EuropaNG11AmériqueNG12AmericaNG12AmericaNG12Prévision13Forecasting13Previsión13Simulation14Simulation14Simulación14Méthode statique15Static method15Método estático15Méthode dynamique16Dynamic method16Método dinámico16002 Including ITS in Microsimulation models7th international IEEE conference on intelligent transportation systems : ITSC 2004, Washington DCSYKES (Pete)BENNETT (Dave)SIAS LtdGBR1 aut.2 aut.1018-10222004ENGIEEEPiscataway NJ0-7803-8500-4International IEEE conference on intelligent transportation systems7Washington DC USA2004INISTY 385673540001386644818400000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.8 ref.06-0013806CAUSAParamics, a transport planning microsimulation package has been extended to include an Advanced Control Interface based on SNMP - Simple Network Management Protocol. The interface enables the inclusion of external ITS control devices within a traffic simulation. This paper describes the interface and the test scenarios to which it has been applied.001D15B001D15CTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Planification02Planning02Planificación02Régulation trafic03Traffic control03Regulación tráfico03Système intelligent04Intelligent system04Sistema inteligente04Modèle simulation05Simulation model05Modelo simulación05Interface06Interface06Interfase06Trafic routier07Road traffic07Tráfico carretera07Système informatique08Computer system08Sistema informático08Organe commande09Control device09Órgano mando09Exemple10Example10Ejemplo10Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15002PSIPSI 0032-4663Population611-2Les effets des réformes des retraites sur les inégalités de genre en FranceBONNET (Carole)BUFFETEAU (Sophie)GODEFROY (Pascal)Institut national d'études démographiquesFRA1 aut.Institut national de la statistique et des études économiquesParisFRA2 aut.3 aut.45-752006FREengspaINIST243663540001388916800200000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/4521-06-15481PAPopulationFRAEffects of pension reforms on gender inequality in FranceLes fortes différences dans les montants des pensions que perçoivent les hommes et les femmes à leur départ en retraite traduisent de façon synthétique les inégalités de déroulement des carrières professionnelles en fonction du sexe. Les études prévoient cependant une tendance au resserrement des écarts dans les décennies à venir. S'appuyant sur une microsimulation dynamique effectuée sur les pensions du secteur privé, Carole BONNET, Sophie BUFFETEAU et Pascal GODEFROY étudient les effets des réformes des retraites de 1993 et 2003 sur l'évolution des inégalités entre hommes et femmes en France. Ils montrent que ces réformes tendent à freiner la réduction des écarts des pensions en fonction du sexe. Les effets plus négatifs des réformes pour les femmes sont liés à l'allongement de 10 à 25 ans du nombre d'années prises en compte pour le calcul du salaire de référence, qui pénalise celles qui ont des carrières discontinues, et au fait qu'un certain nombre de femmes avanceraient leur âge de départ à la retraite, en raison de la réduction des pénalités financières qu'elles subissent. Alors que la problématique des écarts entre les retraites des hommes et celles des femmes et de leurs évolutions est relativement peu abordée en France, les quelques études existantes concluent cependant à une réduction des écarts entre hommes et femmes à l'horizon 2040. Cet article s'inscrit dans la lignée de ces travaux en s'interrogeant sur un éventuel impact différencié selon le sexe des réformes des retraites adoptées en France en 1993 et en 2003. Pour cela, on projette les droits à la retraite des générations 1965-1974 à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation dynamique Destinie dans trois scénarios : avant la réforme de 1993; après la réforme de 1993 et avant celle de 2003 ; après la réforme de 2003. On montre que, malgré l'absence de dispositions spécifiques selon le sexe, ces réformes semblent avoir un impact plus52150XIII521Réforme01Reform01Retraite02Retirement02Genre03Gender03Inégalité sociale04Social Inequality04296PSIPSI 1167-4687Retraite soc. : (Paris)48Prisme¹, le modèle de la CnavPOUBELLE (Vincent)ALBERT (Christophe)BEURNIER (Paul)COUHIN (Julie)GRAVE (Nathanaël)CnavFRA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.5 aut.202-2152006FREINIST274123540001531094000800000© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/4521-06-15254PARetraite et société : (Paris)FRAPrisme1, model of CnavDans le cadre du développement de son pôle d'expertise, la Caisse nationale d'assurance vieillesse (Cnav) s'est dotée d'un nouveau modèle de projection des retraites, Prisme, conçu et développé au sein de la direction de la prospective et de la coordination des études (DPCE). Ce modèle en microsimulation s'appuie sur la richesse et la finesse des informations de gestion de la Cnav et sur les nombreuses expertises extérieures, notamment celles de l'Ined et del'Insee. Dans un contexte de réformes, Prisme a pour objectif d'estimer à court, moyen et long termes l'équilibre financier de la branche vieillesse mais aussi d'évaluer, à un niveau individuel, les répercussions des évolutions démographiques, économiques et réglementaires sur les futursretraités du régime général. Cet article se propose de faire une synthèse des travaux entrepris pour la réalisation de Prisme, et qui ont conduit à l'écriture de 6000 lignes de programme dans le logiciel SAS52164XVI521Assurance vieillesse01Retirement benefit01Statistiques02Statistics02Evaluation03Evaluation03Prospective04Outlook04Retraite05Retirement05282PSIPSI 0032-4663611-2Les effets des réformes des retraites sur les inégalités de genre en FranceBONNET (C.)BUFFETEAU (S.)GODEFROY (P.)45-767 fig., 10 tabl.2006FREfreengspaINIST24366820040 ref.531-06-12663PAPopulation (Paris)FRAS'appuyant sur une microsimulation dynamique effectuée sur les pensions du secteur privé, les AA. étudient les effets des réformes des retraites sur les inégalités de genre en France. Ces réformes tendent à freiner la réduction des écarts des pensions en fonction du sexe. Les effets les plus négatifs pour les femmes sont liés à l'allongement de 10 à 25 ans du nombre d'années prises en compte pour le calcul du salaire de référence, qui pénalise celles qui ont des carrières discontinues, et au fait qu'un certain nombre de femmes avanceraient leur âge au départ à la retraite, en raison de la réduction des pénalités financières qu'elles subissent531163VI531Réforme des retraitesNIINC01Inégalité sociale56302Social inequality56302Effet induit56303Induced effect56303Différence entre sexes56304Gender difference56304Niveau de vie56305Living standard56305Retraité56306Retired people56306Travail féminin56307Female work56307Système de retraiteNIINC08FranceNG22FranceNG22U106!01,03,05,04!08,22U222!08!01,03,05,04261 3La microsimulation des politiques de transferts sociaux et fiscaux à la DREES : objectifs, outils et principales études et évaluations2003-07/2003-09FRE92 p.BDSP/MIN-SANTE193350880005-0478483PMDOSSIERS SOLIDARITE ET SANTEFRALes articles de ce dossier solidarité et santé sont consacrés aux travaux d'évaluation des politiques sociales menées au sein de la Direction de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiques (Drees), mettant en oeuvre des techniques de microsimulation. Trois mots clés : évaluation, politiques sociales et microsimulation sont donc à la base de ce dossier002B30A11Politique socialeSocial policyPolítica socialEvaluationEvaluationEvaluaciónBudgetBudgetPresupuestoMénageHouseholdFamiliaPolitique fiscaleFiscal policyPolítica fiscalProspectiveProspectiveProspectivaModèle économiqueEconomic modelModelo económico339 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1317Some guidelines for selecting microsimulation models for interchange traffic operational analysisFANG CLARA FANGELEFTERIADOU (Lily)Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Univ. of Hartford, 200 Bloomfield AveWest Hartford, CT 06117USA1 aut.Transportation Research Center, Dept. of Civil and Coastal Engineering, Univ. of Florida, 365 Weil Hall, Box 116580Gainesville, FL 32611-6580USA2 aut.535-5432005ENGINIST572E3540001381833200600000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.11 ref.05-0472264PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAThere are several commercially available traffic simulation packages that are able to model the full range of interchange ramp terminals. Each of these packages has pros and cons for simulating various types of interchanges and traffic control plans. Previous research has studied specific simulators in terms of their capabilities for simulating single urban point interchanges (SPUIs) and diamond interchanges. There is no guidance provided however on how to generally select appropriate simulators based on their capabilities and internal algorithms for analyzing specific interchange design and control scenarios. This paper focuses on identifying the elements that should be available in a simulator in order to evaluate a specific interchange scenario (including type, geometry, and traffic control characteristics). The paper does not identify all the specific packages that are appropriate for a specific scenario because these evolve constantly; even though the current version of a package may not support a particular function, future versions of that package may incorporate it. Thus, identifying the most appropriate package would very quickly become obsolete. It is up to the analyst to examine whether a particular characteristic or algorithm is present in a specific package. To accomplish this, three simulators were selected and studied: AIMSUN, CORSIM, and VISSIM. Data from two interchanges (one SPUI and one diamond interchange) at Arizona were obtained and used in the assessment of these packages. The model parameters and assumptions are examined for each model. Simulation is conducted first by using default parameter values followed by a calibration process to adjust parameters related to driver behavior, vehicle performance, and others. In conclusion, several elements are identified as critical in simulating interchanges, which fall in the following categories: (1) the capability of representation of specific geometric characteristics; (2) the capability of simulating specific signal control plans; (3) calibration needs and accuracy in comparison to field conditions; (4) the extraction of specific performance measures from the simulator; and (5) other observations from the research.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Ecoulement trafic02Traffic flow02Flujo tráfico02Echangeur routier03Interchange03Cruce a diferentes niveles03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Méthode analyse05Analysis method05Método análisis05Recommandation06Recommendation06Recomendación06Performance07Performance07Rendimiento07Choix site08Site selection08Elección sitio08Etalonnage09Calibration09Contraste09Simulateur10Simulator10Simulador10ArizonaNG11ArizonaNG11ArizonaNG11Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG332PSIPSI 0003-4975ATHSAKAnn. thorac. surg.803Prognosis after aortic valve replacement with the carpentier-edwards pericardial valve : Use of microsimulationPUVIMANASINGHE (John P. A.)TAKKENBERG (Johanna J. M.)EIJKEMANS (Marinus J. C.)STEYERBERG (Ewout W.)VAN HERWERDEN (Lex A.)GRUNKEMEIER (Gary L.)HABBEMA (J. Dik F.)BOGERS (Ad J. J. C.)Departments of Cardiothoracic Surgery and Public Health, Erasmus Medical CenterRotterdamNLDProvidence Health SystemPortland, OregonUSA825-8312005ENGINIST137793540001319989900600000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.40 ref.05-0464388PAThe Annals of thoracic surgeryUSABackground. The second-generation Carpentier-Edwards pericardial valve (Edwards Lifesciences LLC, Irvine, CA) is widely used for aortic valve replacement. However, knowledge on the long-term outcomes of patients after valve implantation is incomplete. We used microsimulation to calculate the long-term outcome of any given patient after aortic valve replacement with the Carpentier-Edwards pericardial valve. Methods. A meta-analysis of 8 reports on aortic valve replacement with the Carpentier-Edwards pericardial valve (2,685 patients; 12,250 patient years) was used to estimate the hazards of valve-related events other than structural valvular deterioration. Structural valvular deterioration was described by age-dependent Weibull curves calculated from 18-year follow-up, premarket approval, Carpentier-Edwards pericardial primary data. These estimates provided the input data for the parameters of the microsimulation model, which was then used to calculate the outcomes of patients of different ages after valve implantation. The model estimates of survival were validated using two external data sets. Results. The Weibull analysis estimated a median time to reoperation for structural valvular deterioration ranging from 18.1 years for a 55-year-old male to 23.2 years for a 75-year-old male. For a 65-year-old male, microsimulation calculated a life expectancy and event-free life expectancy of 10.8 and 9.1 years, respectively. The lifetime risk of at least one valve-related event was 38% and that of reoperation due to structural valvular deterioration 17%, respectively, for this patient. The model estimates of survival showed good agreement with external data. Conclusions. Microsimulation provides detailed insight into the long-term prognosis of patients after aortic valve replacement. The Carpentier-Edwards pericardial valve performs satisfactorily and offers a low lifetime risk of reoperation due to structural valvular deterioration, especially for elderly patients requiring aortic valve replacement.002B25DAppareil respiratoire pathologie01Respiratory disease01Aparato respiratorio patología01Chirurgie05Surgery05Cirugía05Pronostic09Prognosis09Pronóstico09Valvule aortique10Aortic valve10Válvula aórtica10Remplacement11Replacement11Reemplazo11Péricarde12Pericardium12Pericardio12Soupape13Valve13Válvula13Utilisation14Use14Uso14Thorax15Thorax15Tórax15Traitement25Treatment25Tratamiento25325OTOOTO 0049-4488TNPRDNTransportation324A tour-based model of travel mode choiceRecent advances in activity-based modelling: selected papers from the Lucerne IATBR ConferenceMILLER (Eric J.)ROORDA (Matthew J.)CARRASCO (Juan Antonio)MILLER (Eric J.)ed.Department of Civil Engineering, University of TorontoToronto, M5S 1A4CAN1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. Georges StreetToronto, Ontario M5S 1A4CAN1 aut.International Association for Travel Behavior ResearchEURpatr.399-4222005ENGINIST159853540001252810600400000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/405-0434971PCATransportationNLDThis paper presents a new tour-based mode choice model. The model is agent-based: both households and individuals are modelled within an object-oriented, microsimulation framework. The model is household-based in that inter-personal household constraints on vehicle usage are modelled, and the auto passenger mode is modelled as a joint decision between the driver and the passenger(s) to ride-share. Decisions are modelled using a random utility framework. Utility signals are used to communicate preferences among the agents and to make trade-offs among competing demands. Each person is assumed to choose the &dquot;best&dquot; combination of modes available to execute each tour, subject to auto availability constraints that are determined at the household level. The household's allocations of resources (i.e., cars to drivers and drivers to ride-sharing passengers) are based on maximizing overall household utility, subject to current household resource levels. The model is activity-based: it is designed for integration within a household-based activity scheduling microsimulator. The model is both chain-based and trip-based. It is trip-based in that the ultimate output of the model is a chosen, feasible travel mode for each trip in the simulation. These trip modes are, however, determined through a chain-based analysis. A key organizing principle in the model is that if a car is to be used on a tour, it must be used for the entire chain, since the car must be returned home at the end of the tour. No such constraint, however, exists with respect to other modes such as walk and transit. The paper presents the full conceptual model and estimation results for an initial empirical prototype. Because of the complex nature of the model decision structure, choice probabilities are simulated from direct generation of random utilities rather than through an analytical probability expression.001D15ATransports01Transportation01Transportes01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Choix modal03Modal choice03Elección modal03Voyage04Travel04Viaje04Ménage05Household05Familia05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Tour itinéraire07Tour07Vuelta07Producteur trafic08Trip generator08Productor tráfico08Transport voyageur09Passenger transportation09Transporte pasajero09Implémentation10Implementation10Implementación10Prototype11Prototype11Prototipo11Estimation12Estimation12Estimación12Modèle prévision13Forecast model13Modelo previsión13Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15305PSIPSIIATBR: International Association for Travel Behavior Research. ConferenceLuzerne CHE2003-08 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy3314Energy demand and environmental taxes : the case of GreeceRAPANOS (Vassilis T.)POLEMIS (Michael L.)Department of Economics, University of AthensGRC1 aut.2 aut.1781-17882005ENGINIST164173540001247679300200000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.20 ref.05-0408499PAEnergy policyGBRThe purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects that energy taxes may have on reducing environmental pollution in Greece. We study the demand for residential energy for the period 1965-1998, and on the basis of these estimates we make forecasts for CO₂ emissions in the coming years. Furthermore we develop alternative scenarios for tax changes, and study their effects on CO₂ emissions. According to our findings the harmonization of the Greek energy taxes to the average European Union levels implies an increase of total CO₂ emissions by 6% annually. If taxes are raised, however, to the highest European Union levels, the CO₂ emissions are restricted significantly. These empirical findings may indicate that environmental taxation cannot be the unique instrument for combating pollution.001D06A01B001D06A01C1001D16C04A230Demande énergie01Energy demand01Demanda energía01Politique fiscale02Fiscal policy02Política fiscal02GrèceNG03GreeceNG03GreciaNG03Taxe04Tax04Tasa04Taxation05Taxation05Tasación05Emission polluant06Pollutant emission06Emisión contaminante06Carbone dioxydeNKFX07Carbon dioxideNKFX07Carbono dióxidoNKFX07Secteur domestique08Residential sector08Sector doméstico08Consommation énergie09Energy consumption09Consumo energía09Répartition par source10Distribution by sources10Repartición por fuente10Impact environnement11Environment impact11Impacto medio ambiente11Simulation12Simulation12Simulación12Modèle économétrique13Econometric model13Modelo econométrico13Politique énergétique14Energy policy14Política energética14Prévention pollution15Pollution prevention15Prevención polución15Lutte antipollution16Pollution control16Lucha anticontaminación16EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG283 0140-9883EECODREnergy econ.272Unilateral and collusive market power in the electricity pool of England and WalesSpecial issue on electricity marketsBUNN (Derek W.)MARTOCCIA (Maria)BUNN (Derek)ed.London Business School, Sussex Place, Regents ParkLondon NW1 4SAGBR1 aut.2 aut.London Business SchoolLondonGBR1 aut.305-3152005ENGINIST182313540001246509300500000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.20 ref.05-0403129PAEnergy economicsGBRThis paper uses a detailed market microsimulation of agent bidding behaviour to provide insights into the evolution of generator market power in the electricity pool of England and Wales. We identify an evolution, as market concentration declined, from unilateral market power dominance in the early years (1990-1996) to tacit collusive coordination towards the end (1996-2001), whereupon the pool was replaced by voluntary bilateral trading. The microsimulation analysis does not provide closed form solutions for market equilibrium nor a multi-agent co-evolutionary set of scenarios, but provides a diagnostic aid in determining when market concentration may decline to the point at which price leadership gives way to tacit collusion as means of exercising market power.001D06A01C4230Economie énergie01Energy economy01Economía energía01Electricité02Electricity02Electricidad02Etude marché03Market survey03Estudio mercado03Structure marché04Market structure04Estructura mercado04Simulation05Simulation05Simulación05Historique06Case history06Estudio histórico06Enchère07Bidding07Subasta07Coût marginal08Marginal cost08Coste marginal08Rentabilité09Profitability09Rentabilidad09Prix10Price10Precio10Pays de GallesNG11WalesNG11País de GalesNG11AngleterreNG12EnglandNG12InglaterraNG12Grande BretagneNGGreat BritainNGGran BretañaNGRoyaume UniNGUnited KingdomNGReino UnidoNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG283 0037-5497Simulation : (S. Diego Calif.)813A hybrid agent-based model for estimating residential water demandSpecial issue on applications of agent-based simulation to social and organizational domainsATHANASIADIS (Ioannis N.)MENTES (Alexandros K.)MITKAS (Pericles A.)MYLOPOULOS (Yiannis A.)EDMONDS (Bruce)présent.MÖHRING (Michael)présent.Aristotle University of Thessaloniki541 24, ThessalonikiGRC1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.175-1872005ENGINIST49993540001322101600100000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.49 ref.05-0389573PASimulation : (San Diego, Calif.)USAThe global effort toward sustainable development has initiated a transition in water management. Water utility companies use water-pricing policies as an instrument for controlling residential water demand. To Support policy makers in their decisions, the authors have developed DAWN, a hybrid model for evaluating water-pricing policies. DAWN integrates an agent-based social model for the consumer with conventional econometric models and simulates the residential water demand-supply chain, enabling the evaluation of different scenarios for policy making. An agent community is assigned to behave as water consumers, while econometric and social models are incorporated into them for estimating water consumption. DAWN's main advantage is that it supports social interaction between consumers, through an influence diffusion mechanism, implemented via inter-agent communication. Parameters affecting water consumption and associated with consumers' social behavior can be simulated with DAWN. Real-world results of DAWN's application for the evaluation of five water-pricing policies in Thessaloniki, Greece, are presented.001D01A15001D02B08Système multiagent06Multiagent system06Sistema multiagente06Intelligence artificielle07Artificial intelligence07Inteligencia artificial07Développement durable08Sustainable development08Desarrollo sostenible08Fixation prix09Pricing09Fijación precios09Tarification10Tariffication10Tarificación10Prise décision11Decision making11Toma decision11Raisonnement basé sur modèle18Model-based reasoning18Gestion ressource eau19Water resource management19Gestión recurso agua19Consommateur20Consumer20Consumidor20Modèle économétrique21Econometric model21Modelo econométrico21Logistique22Logistics22Logística22Modèle hybride23Hybrid model23Modelo híbrido23Interaction sociale24Social interaction24Interacción social24Comportement consommateur25Consumer behavior25Comportamiento consumidor25Comportement social26Social behavior26Conducta social26Psychologie sociale27Social psychology27Psicología social27Influence sociale41Social influence41Influencia social41269OTOOTO 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1883Analysis of traffic flow characteristics on signalized arterialsTraffic flow theory and highway capacity and quality of service 2004GARTNER (Nathan H.)WAGNER (Peter)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of MassachusettsLowell, MA 01854USA1 aut.Institute of Transport Research, German Aerospace Centre, Rutherfordstrasse 212489 BerlinDEU2 aut.94-1002004ENGINIST10459B3540001249159401100000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.17 ref.05-0360734PATransportation research recordUSAThe characteristics of traffic flows on signalized arterials are examined within a cellular automaton microsimulation model. The model is used to analyze arterial throughput and travel times for given densities, coordination schemes, and signal spacings. A fundamental three-dimensional relationship is established between flow, density, and offsets for signalized arterials. In particular, it is shown that arterial throughput is dependent on offsets and that the constituent single-intersection limiting capacity, as determined by the saturation flow and the green splits, can be realized only under optimal coordination conditions for a limited range of densities on the arterial. This finding is a manifestation of the important role that signal coordination and, in fact, intelligent transportation systems in general play in the operation of urban street networks.001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Ecoulement trafic02Traffic flow02Flujo tráfico02Feu signalisation03Traffic lights03Semáforo03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Automate cellulaire05Cellular automaton05Autómata celular05Durée trajet06Travel time06Duración trayecto06Densité07Density07Densidad07Capacité08Capacity08Capacidad08Intersection09Intersection09Intersección09Résultat10Result10Resultado10Débit11Flow rate11Gasto11248PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1886Using microscopic simulation to evaluate potential intelligent transportation system strategies under nonrecurrent congestionIntelligent transportation systems and vehicle-highway automation 2004LIANYU CHULIU (Henry X.)RECKER (Will)Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, IrvineIrvine, CA 92697USA1 aut.3 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Utah State University, 4110 Old Main HillLogan, UT 84322USA2 aut.76-842004ENGINIST10459B3540001385256201000000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.05-0357974PATransportation research recordUSAA microsimulation method is presented for evaluating the effectiveness of potential intelligent transportation system (ITS) strategies under nonrecurrent congestion. The evaluated ITS strategies include incident management, adaptive ramp metering, traveler information systems, arterial management, and a combination of those strategies. These strategies are implemented and evaluated over a road network in Irvine, California, with the microsimulation model PARAMICS. The evaluation results show that all ITS strategies have positive effects on network performance. Because of the network topology (one major freeway with two parallel arterial streets), real-time traveler information has the greatest benefits among all single ITS strategies. However, a combination of ITS strategies can further increase benefits.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Congestion trafic02Traffic congestion02Congestión tráfico02Système intelligent03Intelligent system03Sistema inteligente03Gestion trafic04Traffic management04Gestión tráfico04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Implémentation06Implementation06Implementación06Modèle microscopique07Microscopic model07Modelo microscópico07Evaluation système08System evaluation08Evaluación sistema08Efficacité09Efficiency09Eficacia09Stratégie10Strategy10Estrategia10Comptage trafic11Traffic meter11Contaje tráfico11Système information12Information system12Sistema información12CalifornieNG14CaliforniaNG14CaliforniaNG14Résultat15Result15Resultado15Scénario16Script16Argumento16Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG248PSIPSI 0003-682XAACOBLAppl. Acoust.662The influence of traffic flow dynamics on urban soundscapesUrban AcousticsDE COENSEL (Bert)DE MUER (Tom)YPERMAN (Isaak)BOTTELDOOREN (Dick)KANG (Jian)ed.Acoustics Group, Department of Information Technology, Ghent University, St. Pietersnieuwstraat 419000 GhentBEL1 aut.2 aut.4 aut.Transportation Planning and Highway Engineering Group, Department of Civil Engineering, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Kasteelpark Arenberg 403001 HeverleeBEL3 aut.School of Architecture, University of SheffieldSheffield, S10 2TNGBR1 aut.175-1942005ENGINIST141683540001270734600300000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.44 ref.05-0343546PAApplied AcousticsGBRThe development and validation of a model for dynamic traffic noise prediction is presented. The model is composed of a GIS-based traffic microsimulation part coupled with an emission model, and a beamtrace-based 2.5D propagation part, which takes into account multiple reflections and diffractions. The model can be used to analyze the influence of real urban traffic situations (e.g., traffic flow management, road saturation) in the usual equivalent sound level maps. However. it also allows to calculate and visualize statistical noise levels and indicators derived from them. Novel descriptors based on the power spectrum of noise level fluctuations can be obtained. A part of Gentbrugge, Belgium, is taken as a validation area; different traffic demand scenarios are simulated.001B40C50001D14A06001D15A295Acoustique01Acoustics01Acústica01Zone urbaine02Urban area02Zona urbana02Bruit trafic03Traffic noise03Ruido tráfico03Ecoulement trafic04Traffic flow04Flujo tráfico04Modèle prévision05Forecast model05Modelo previsión05Modèle dynamique06Dynamic model06Modelo dinámico06Emission sonore07Sound production07Emisión sonora07Propagation son08Sound propagation08Propagación sonido08Etude impact09Impact study09Estudio impacto09Etude cas10Case study10Estudio caso10Ville11Town11Ciudad11BelgiqueNG12BelgiumNG12BelgicaNG12Etude comparative13Comparative study13Estudio comparativo13Résultat mesure14Measurement result14Resultado medición14Simulation15Simulation15Simulación15GentbruggeNGINC72EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG241PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1898Household allocation module of Oregon2 modelTravel Demand and Land Use 2004HUNT (John Douglas)ABRAHAM (John E.)WEIDNER (Tara J.)Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NWCalgary, Alberta T2N 1N4CAN1 aut.2 aut.Parsons Brinckerhoff, 400 SW Sixth Avenue, Suite 802Portland, OR 97204-1412USA3 aut.98-1072004ENGINIST10459B3540001266525401200000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.6 ref.05-0333720PATransportation research recordUSAThe Oregon2 model is a set of seven integrated modules that together simulate the land use-transport system in the state of Oregon. One of these modules, called the household allocation module, updates the economic and demographic attributes of each person and household in a synthetic population, including age, sex, occupation, work and student status, job holdings, household membership, primary- and secondary-home size and location, income, and car ownership. It uses an agent-based microsimulation with Monte Carlo selection to identify choice outcomes and state transitions for each person or household concerning each economic or demographic attribute considered, with selection probabilities determined by using logit models and sampling distributions that are functions of relevant alternative attributes and household or person characteristics. Initial parameter values were estimated with data from Oregon household travel surveys, the University of Michigan Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, U.S. census data, and other published statistics. Spatial locations are represented in a system of roughly 3,000 geographic zones covering the study area. Six housing types, eight occupation categories, and continuous quantities for housing size and income are also represented. Housing markets are represented by using a disequilibrium structure, in which prices in each zone are updated in response to the vacancy rate relative to a reference rate, moving toward but not necessarily reaching a market-clearing solution.001D15B001D14A06295Transports01Transportation01Transportes01Occupation sol02Land use02Ocupación terreno02OregonNG03OregonNG03OregonNG03Description système04System description04Descripción sistema04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Ménage06Household06Familia06Démographie07Demography07Demografía07Economie régionale08Regional economy08Economía regional08Choix site09Site selection09Elección sitio09Logement habitation10Housing10Habitación10Lieu travail11Work place11Lugar trabajo11Etalonnage12Calibration12Contraste12Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG234PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1898Incremental modeling developments in Sacramento, California: Toward advanced integrated land use-transport modelTravel Demand and Land Use 2004ABRAHAM (John E.)GARRY (Gordon R.)HUNT (John Douglas)BROWNLEE (Alan T.)Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NWCalgary, Alberta T2N 1N4CAN1 aut.3 aut.Sacramento Area Council of Governments, 1415 L Street, Suite 300Sacramento, CA 95814USA2 aut.Transportation and Streets Department, City of EdmontonEdmonton, Alberta T5J 3A3CAN4 aut.108-1132004ENGINIST10459B3540001266525401300000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.8 ref.05-0333519PATransportation research recordUSAThe regional transportation planning agency in Sacramento, California, is taking a three-pronged approach to updating its land use-transportation forecasting models: developing a long-term model design, improving existing models toward that design, and collecting data that can be used to support the existing models while the new design is being developed. The advanced integrated model design contains a tour-based travel model involving microsimulation of individual tours of synthetic households, a microsimulation-based land development model, and a spatial input-output model of the regional economy. The existing models consist of a land use model based on the MEPLAN model, a traditional four-step model of transportation demand improved with the addition of an automobile ownership submodel and joint consideration of mode and destination for work trips, and an interactive neighborhood-level parcel allocation system. The process described is one of improvement of current models and of moving toward a new model design while the agency faces ongoing modeling needs and uncertain budgets.001D15B001D14A06295Transports01Transportation01Transportes01Occupation sol02Land use02Ocupación terreno02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03CalifornieNG04CaliforniaNG04CaliforniaNG04Système intégré05Integrated system05Sistema integrado05Conception06Design06Diseño06Modèle prévision07Forecast model07Modelo previsión07Planification08Planning08Planificación08Transport régional09Regional transportation09Transporte regional09Long terme10Long term10Largo plazo10Collecte donnée11Data gathering11Recolección dato11Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG234PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1898TRESIS application of Transport and Environmental Strategic Impact Simulator to Sydney, AustraliaTravel Demand and Land Use 2004HENSHER (David A.)STOPHER (Peter R.)BULLOCK (Philip)TU TONInstitute of Transport Studies, C37, University of SydneyNew South Wales 2006AUS1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.114-1232004ENGINIST10459B3540001266525401400000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.18 ref.05-0333206PATransportation research recordUSAAn integrated microsimulation urban passenger transport model system, TRESIS (Transport and Environmental Strategic Impact Simulator), for evaluating the impact of a large number of interrelated policy instruments on urban travel behavior and the environment is presented. The model system has four integrated modules defining household location and automobile choices, commuter workplace and commuting travel choices, noncommuting travel activity, and worker-distributed work practices. The demand model system, estimated as a set of discrete and continuous choice models, is combined with a set of equilibrating criteria in each of the location, automobile, and commuting markets to predict overall demand for passenger travel in various socioeconomic segments, automobile classes, and geographic locations. The current version was developed to operate at a high level of aggregation for the Sydney, Australia, region, including a 14-zone system with a spiderweb network, and is designed to explore the impacts of broad strategic directions. The model system is embedded within a decision support system to make it an attractive suite of tools for practitioners. The usefulness of TRESIS is illustrated by its application to a major investment option in Northeast Sydney to replace a bottleneck created by the raising of a bridge either with bridge improvements together with improvements to a number of intersections on the roads serving the region or with several possible tunnel options, including different levels of tolls for the tunnels. The application of TRESIS to this case was considered a success: TRESIS provided a comprehensive regional view of the likely outcomes of the alternatives.001D15A001D15BTransport voyageur01Passenger transportation01Transporte pasajero01Politique environnement02Environmental policy02Política medio ambiente02Transport urbain03Urban transportation03Transporte urbano03Simulateur04Simulator04Simulador04Comportement05Behavior05Conducta05Impact environnement06Environment impact06Impacto medio ambiente06AustralieNG07AustraliaNG07AustraliaNG07Description système08System description08Descripción sistema08Application09Application09Aplicación09Etude cas10Case study10Estudio caso10Ménage11Household11Familia11Voyage12Travel12Viaje12Etude comparative13Comparative study13Estudio comparativo13OcéanieNGOceaniaNGOceaniaNG234PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1898Analysis of personal time-space prism vertex locations: A developing-country contextTravel Demand and Land Use 2004NEHRA (Ram S.)BANERJEE (Amlan)PENDYALA (Ram M.)DHINQRA (S. L.)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, ENB11B, 4202 East Fowler AvenueTampa, FL 33620-5350USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.Civil Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology BombayPowai, Mumbai 400 076IND4 aut.19-272004ENGINIST10459B3540001266525400300000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.11 ref.05-0331445PATransportation research recordUSARecent developments in microsimulation modeling of activity and travel demand have called for the explicit recognition of time and space constraints under which individuals perform their activity and travel patterns. The estimation of time-space prism vertex locations-the perceived time constraints-is an important development in this context. Stochastic frontier modeling methodology offers a suitable framework for modeling and identifying the expected vertex locations of time-space prisms within which people execute activity-travel patterns. In this study, stochastic frontier models of time-space prism vertex locations are estimated for samples drawn from a household travel survey conducted in 2001 in the city of Thane on the west coast of India. The data from this survey offer an opportunity to study time constraints governing activity-travel patterns of individuals in a developing-country context. Comparisons between men and women, workers and nonworkers, and developed- and developing-country contexts were included to understand better how socioeconomic and sociocultural norms and characteristics affect time-space prism constraints.001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Modèle simulation02Simulation model02Modelo simulación02Activité03Activity03Actividad03Voyage04Travel04Viaje04Demande transport05Transport demand05Demanda transporte05Corrélation spatiotemporelle06Space time correlation06Correlación espacio tiempo06Analyse contrainte07Stress analysis07Análisis tensión07Pays en développement08Developing countries08Países en desarrollo08Modèle stochastique09Stochastic model09Modelo estocástico09Caractéristiques10Characteristics10Características10Résultat11Result11Resultado11Etude comparative12Comparative study12Estudio comparativo12Analyse donnée13Data analysis13Análisis datos13Vertex14Vertex14Vértice14234PSIPSI 0968-090XTransp. res., Part C Emerg. technol.126A hybrid controller for autonomous vehicles driving on automated highwaysGIRAULT (Alain)Inria, Rhône-Alpes, Pop Art Project, ZIRST, 655 Avenue de l'Europe38330 Saint-IsmierFRA1 aut.421-4522004ENGINIST12377C3540001261079700200000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/405-0298333PATransportation research. Part C, Emerging technologiesGBRThis paper addresses the problem of the hybrid control of autonomous vehicles driving on automated highways. Vehicles are autonomous, so they do not communicate with each other nor with the infrastructure. Two problems have to be dealt with: a vehicle driving in a single-lane highway must never collide with its leading vehicle; and a vehicle entering the highway at a designated entry junction must be able to merge from the merging lane to the main lane, again without any collision. To solve these problems, we equip each vehicle with a hybrid controller, consisting of several continuous control laws embedded inside a finite state automaton. The automaton specifies when a given vehicle must enter the highway, merge into the main lane, yield to other vehicles, exit from the highway, and so on. The continuous control laws specify what acceleration the vehicle must have in order to avoid collisions with nearby vehicles. By carefully designing these control laws and the conditions guarding the automaton transitions, we are able to demonstrate three important results. First, we state the initial conditions guaranteeing that a following vehicle never collides with its leading vehicle. Second, we extend this first result to a lane of autonomous vehicles. Third, we prove that if all the vehicles are equipped with our hybrid controller, then no collision can ever occur, and all vehicles either merge successfully or are forced to drop out when they reach the end of their merging lane. Finally, we show the outcome of a highway microsimulation modelled after the Katy Corridor near Houston, Texas: our single-lane highway can accommodate 4000 vehicles per hour with neither drop-outs nor traffic congestion. It is entirely programmed in SHIFT, a hybrid systems simulation language developed at UC Berkeley by the PATH group. This shows that SHIFT is a well suited language for designing safe control laws for autonomous highway systems, among others.001D15CSécurité trafic01Traffic safety01Seguridad tráfico01Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Système intelligent03Intelligent system03Sistema inteligente03Régulation trafic04Traffic control04Regulación tráfico04Description système05System description05Descripción sistema05Commande hybride06Hybrid control06Control híbrida06Système autonome07Autonomous system07Sistema autónomo07Automate08Automaton08Autómata08Conception09Design09Diseño09Accélération10Acceleration10Aceleración10Contrôleur11Controller11Supervisor11Simulation12Simulation12Simulación12206PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1894Comprehensive econometric microsimulator for daily activity-travel patternsTravel behavior and values 2004BHAT (Chandra R.)GUO (Jessica Y.)SRINIVASAN (Sivaramakrishnan)SIVAKUMAR (Aruna)Department of Civil Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1761Austin, TX 78712-0278USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.57-662004ENGINIST10459B3540001268861100700000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.19 ref.05-0297335PATransportation research recordUSAThe Comprehensive Econometric Microsimulator for Daily Activity-Travel Patterns (CEMDAP) is a microsimulation implementation of an activity-travel modeling system. Given as input various land use, sociodemographic, activity system, and transportation level-of-service attributes, the system provides as output the complete daily activity-travel patterns for each individual in each household of a population. The underlying econometric modeling framework and the software development experience associated with CEMDAP are described. The steps involved in applying CEMDAP to predict activity-travel patterns and to perform policy analysis are also presented. Empirical results obtained from applying the software to the Dallas-Fort Worth area demonstrate that CEMDAP provides a means of analyzing policy impacts in ways that are generally infeasible with the conventional four-stage approach.001D15A001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Voyage02Travel02Viaje02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Econométrie05Econometrics05Econometría05Activité06Activity06Actividad06Quotidien07Daily07Cotidiano07Application08Application08Aplicación08TexasNG09TexasNG09TexasNG09Développement logiciel10Software development10Desarrollo logicial10Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG206PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1894Merlin microsimulation system for predicting leisure activity-travel patternsTravel behavior and values 2004VAN MIDDELKOOP (Manon)BORGERS (Aloys)TIMMERMANS (Harry)Urban Planning Group, Eindhoven University of Technology, P.O. Box 5135600 MB EindhovenNLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.20-272004ENGINIST10459B3540001268861100300000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.24 ref.05-0296974PATransportation research recordUSADevelopment of a model of annual activity-travel patterns of leisure and vacation travel is reported. The simulation system, called Merlin, is a hybrid model system consisting of discrete choice models and rule-based models. It predicts the annual number of day trips and vacations, and the profile of such trips and vacations, including duration, travel party, timing, destination, type of accommodation, transport mode, day of departure, and expenditures. Separate models are derived for each of these facets. Microsimulation is used to predict aggregate patterns. The model's performance is satisfactory.001D15ATransports01Transportation01Transportes01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Modèle prévision04Forecast model04Modelo previsión04Activité05Activity05Actividad05Loisir06Leisure06Ocio06Voyage07Travel07Viaje07Modèle hybride08Hybrid model08Modelo híbrido08Performance09Performance09Rendimiento09Prise décision10Decision making10Toma decision10Test ajustement11Goodness of fit test11Prueba ajuste11Résultat12Result12Resultado12Comportement13Behavior13Conducta13Tourisme14Tourism14Turismo14206PSIPSI 1055-9965Cancer epidemiol. biomark. prev.142A model-based comparison of breast cancer screening strategies: Mammograms and clinical breast examinationsYU SHENPARMIGIANI (Giovanni)Department of Biostatistics and Applied Mathematics, M.D. Anderson Cancer Center University of Texas, Houston, TexasBaltimore, MarylandUSA1 aut.Departments of Oncology, Biostatistics, and Pathology, Johns Hopkins UniversityBaltimore, MarylandUSA2 aut.529-5322005ENGINIST266373540001293241503400000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.46 ref.05-0263847PCCACancer epidemiology, biomarkers & preventionUSAIn screening for secondary prevention of breast cancer, clinical breast examination (CBE) combined with mammography may improve overall screening sensitivity compared with mammography alone. A systematic evaluation of the relative expenses and projected benefit of combining these two screening modalities is not presently available. We addressed this issue using a microsimulation model incorporating age-specific preclinical duration of the disease, age-specific sensitivities of the two modalities, age-specific incidence of the disease, screening strategy, and competing causes of mortality. We examined a total of 48 screening strategies, depending on the age range, the examination interval, and whether mammography or CBE is given at every one or two exam. Our results indicate that a biennial mammography can be cost-effective if coupled with annual CBE. For each screening interval and starting age, giving mammography every two exams and CBE at every exam has the lowest marginal cost per year of quality-adjusted life saved, whereas giving both at every exam has the highest. Comparing annual mammography and CBE to biennial mammography and annual CBE from 50 to 79, the total cost was reduced by 35%, whereas the marginal quality-adjusted life years only decreased by 12%. Similar reductions are observed for other starting ages. It is cost-effective to have a biennial mammography if coupled with an annual CBE. Annual mammography combined with CBE every 6 months will lead to a 41% increase in the quality-adjusted life years compared with annual mammography and CBE from 50 to 79, whereas the total cost increases by 30%.002B04002B20E02Exploration clinique01Clinical investigation01Exploración clínica01Modèle simulation02Simulation model02Modelo simulación02Etude comparative03Comparative study03Estudio comparativo03Mammographie04Mammography04Mastografía04Homme05Human05Hombre05Dépistage06Medical screening06Descubrimiento06Modèle statistique08Statistical model08Modelo estadístico08Cancérologie12Cancerology12Cancerología12Cancer seinCD96Breast cancerCD96C&#225;ncer del pechoCD96Glande mammaire pathologieNM37Mammary gland diseasesNM37Glándula mamaria patologíaNM37Tumeur maligne38Malignant tumor38Tumor maligno38Santé publique39Public health39Salud pública39185 The cost of US pharmaceutical price reductions : a financial simulation model or R & D decisionsABBOTT (T.A.)VERNON (J.A.)National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge. MA.USA2005-02ENGNBERCambridge35 p.tabl., graph., fig.BDSP/IRDESP193, CODBAR 00464418800dissem.05-0210932LMUSALe coût des réductions de prix des médicaments aux Etats-Unis : un modèle financier de simulation des décisions en R & DPrevious empirical studies that have examined the links between pharmaceutical price controls, profits, cash flows, and investment in research and development (R & D) have been largely based on retrospective statistical analyses of firm-and/or industry-level data. These studies, which have contributed numerous insights and findings to the literature, relied upon ad hoc reduced-form model specifications. In the current paper we take a very different approach : a prospective micro-simulation approach. Using Monte Carlo techniques we model how future price controls in the U.S. will impact early-stage product development decisions in the pharmaceutical industry. This is done within the context of a net present value (NPV) framework that appropriately reflects the uncertainty associated with R & D project technical success, development costs, and future revenues. Using partial-information estimators calibrated with the most contemporary clinical and economic data available, we demonstrate how pharmaceutical price controls will significantly diminish the incentives to undertake early-stage R & D investment. For example, we estimate that cutting prices by 40 to 50 percent in the U.S. will lead to between 30 to 60 percent fewer R & D projects being undertaken (in early-stage development). Given the recent legislative efforts to control prescription drug prices in the U.S., and the likelihood that price controls will prevail as a result, it is important to better understand the firm response to such a regulatory change002B30A11PrixPricePrecioMédicamentDrugMedicamentoRecherche scientifiqueScientific researchInvestigación científicaContrôleCheckControlDépenseExpenditureGastoRégulationRegulation(control)RegulaciónEtude impactImpact studyEstudio impactoAspect économiqueEconomic aspectAspecto económicoEvaluationEvaluationEvaluaciónModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoAide décisionDecision aidAyuda decisiónEtats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGSimulationSimulationSimulaciónAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG150 Tax policy for health insuranceGRUBER (J.)National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge. MA.USA2004-12ENGNBERCambridge35 p.tabl., graph., fig.BDSP/IRDESP193, CODBAR 00463728800dissem.05-0210923LMUSALa politique de taxation en assurance maladieDespite a $140 billion existing tax break for employer-provided health insurance, tax policy remains the tool of choice for many policy-makers in addressing the problem of the uninsured. In this paper, I use a microsimulation model to estimate the impact of various tax interventions to cover the uninsured, relative to an expansion of public insurance designed to accomplish the same goals. I contrast the efficiency of these policies along several dimensions, most notably the dollars of public spending per dollar of insurance value provided. I find that every tax policy is much less efficient than public insurance expansions : while public insurance costs the government only between $1.17 and $1.33 per dollar of insurance value provided, tax policies cost the government between $2.36 and $12.98 per dollar of insurance value provided. I also find that targeting is crucial for efficient tax policy ; policies tightly targeted to the lowest income earners have a much higher efficiency than those available higher in the income distribution. Within tax policies, tax credits aimed at employers are the most efficient, and tax credits aimed at employees are the least efficient, because the single greatest determinant of insurance coverage is being offered insurance by your employer, and because most employees who are offered already take up that insurance. Tax credits targeted at non-group coverage are fairly similar to employer tax credits at low levels, but much less efficient at higher levels002B30A11ImpôtLevyImpuestoEntrepriseFirmEmpresaRejet socialSocial rejectionRechazo socialAssurance maladieHealth insuranceSeguro enfermedadRendementYieldRendimientoPolitique sanitaireHealth policyPolítica sanitariaRevenu individuelPersonal incomeRenta personalEmployéEmployeeEmpleadoSecteur publicPublic sectorSector públicoFinancementFinancingFinanciaciónProtection socialeWelfare aidsProtección socialAnalyse économiqueEconomic analysisAnálisis económicoThéorieTheoryTeoríaEvaluationEvaluationEvaluaciónEtude impactImpact studyEstudio impactoModèleModelsModeloEtats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGSimulationSimulationSimulaciónAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG150 0393-2990Eur. j. epidemiol.201Lifetime prevalence estimates of major depression: An indirect estimation method and a quantification of recall biasKRUIJSHAAR (Michelle Elisabeth)BARENDREGT (Jan)VOS (Theo)DE GRAAF (Ron)SPIJKER (Jan)ANDREWS (Gavin)Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, University Hospital RotterdamRotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.Department for Public Health Forecasting, National Institute of Public Health and the EnvironmentBilthovenNLD1 aut.Health Surveillance and Evaluation Section, Department of Human ServicesVictoria, MelbourneAUS3 aut.Netherlands Institute of Mental Health and AddictionUtrechtNLD4 aut.5 aut.Clinical Research Unit on Anxiety and Depression, University of New South WalesSydneyAUS6 aut.103-1112005ENGINIST208563540001267427201400000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.37 ref.05-0206831PAEuropean journal of epidemiologyNLDThe measurement of lifetime prevalence of depression in cross-sectional surveys is biased by recall problems. We estimated it indirectly for two countries using modelling, and quantified the underestimation in the empirical estimate for one. A microsimulation model was used to generate population-based epidemiological measures of depression. We fitted the model to 1-and 12-month prevalence data from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS) and the Australian Adult Mental Health and Wellbeing Survey. The lowest proportion of cases ever having an episode in their life is 30% of men and 40% of women, for both countries. This corresponds to a lifetime prevalence of 20 and 30%, respectively, in a cross-sectional setting (aged 15-65). The NEMESIS data were 38% lower than these estimates. We conclude that modelling enabled us to estimate lifetime prevalence of depression indirectly. This method is useful in the absence of direct measurement, but also showed that direct estimates are underestimated by recall bias and by the cross-sectional setting.002B30A11002B18C07A002B18C07DEtat dépressif01Depression01Estado depresivo01Prévalence03Prevalence03Prevalencia03Epidémiologie05Epidemiology05Epidemiología05Santé publique06Public health06Salud pública06Estimation08Estimation08Estimación08Méthode indirecte09Indirect method09Método indirecto09Quantification11Quantization11Cuantificación11Analyse quantitative12Quantitative analysis12Análisis cuantitativo12Rappel17Recall17Llamada17Mémoire18Memory18Memoria18Modèle théorique19Theoretical model19Modelo teórico19Durée vie20Lifetime20Tiempo vida20Homme21Human21Hombre21Trouble humeur37Mood disorder37Trastorno humor37143OTOOTO 0378-3758JSPIDNJ. stat. plan. inference1321-2Optimal sequential kernel detection for dependent processesSpecial Issue on The Fourth St. Petersburg Workshop on SimulationSTELAND (Ansgar)MELAS (Viatcheslav B.)ed.Fakultät für Mathematik, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Mathematik 3 NA 3/71, Universitätsstr. 15044780 BochumDEU1 aut.Faculty of Mathematics and Mechanics, St. Petersburg State University, Bibliotechnaya, sq. 2St Petersburg 198904RUS1 aut.St. Petersburg State University. Department of Stochastic SimulationSt PetersburgRUSpatr.INFORMS College on SimulationUSAcollab.131-1472005ENGINIST175753540001294659700900000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/405-0203704PCAJournal of statistical planning and inferenceNLDIn many applications one is interested to detect certain (known) patterns in the mean of a process with the smallest delay. Using an asymptotic framework which allows to capture that feature, we study a class of appropriate sequential nonparametric kernel procedures under local nonparametric alternatives. We prove a new theorem on the convergence of the normed delay of the associated sequential detection procedure which holds for dependent time series under a weak mixing condition. The result suggests a simple procedure to select a kernel from a finite set of candidate kernels, and therefore may also be of interest from a practical point of view. Further, we provide two new theorems about the existence and an explicit representation of optimal kernels minimizing the asymptotic normed delay. The results are illustrated by some examples.001A02H02HMéthode séquentielle17Sequential method17Método secuencial17Estimation non paramétrique18Non parametric estimation18Estimación no paramétrica18Méthode noyau19Kernel method19Método núcleo19Approximation asymptotique21Asymptotic approximation21Aproximación asintótica21Modèle économétrique22Econometric model22Modelo econométrico22Finance23Finance23Finanzas23Série temporelle25Time series25Serie temporal25Temps mélangeage26Mixing time26Tiempo mezcladura26Contrôle qualité27Quality control27Control calidad27Mélange loi probabilité28Mixed distribution28Mezcla ley probabilidad28Théorème existence29Existence theorem29Teorema existencia29Méthode statistique30Statistical method30Método estadístico30Décision statistique31Statistical decision31Decisión estadística3162M10INC7037A25INC71Processus dépendentCD96Dependent processCD96Cinétique enzymeCD97Enzyme kineticCD97Régression non paramétriqueCD98Nonparametric regressionCD98Génétique statistiqueCD99Statistical geneticsCD99143OTOOTOSt Petersburg Workshop on Simulation4St Petersburg RUS2001-06-25 0769-489XAnn. écon. stat.71-72Segregation and racial preferences: New theoretical and empirical approaches«Discrimination et inégalités»ROSS (Stephen L.)Department of Economics, University of Connecticut, 341 Mansfield RoadStorrs, CT 06269-1063USA1 aut.Université du Maine. Groupe d'analyse des itinéraires et niveaux salariaux (GAINS)MansFRApatr.143-1722003ENGfreINIST210353540001259680600400000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/405-0185466PCAAnnales d'économie et de statistiqueFRA«Discrimination and Unequal Outcome»Ce papier s'intéresse au rôle des préférences dans les interactions sociales et leur implication en termes de ségrégation raciale. Le modèle théorique suggère que les ménages de couleur peuvent habiter dans des endroits à majorité blanche, et contrairement aux précédents modèles de ségrégation, ce modèle est cohérent avec soit la ségrégation ou l'intégration raciale. En utilisant les données de l'American Housing Survey, l'analyse empirique montre que les différences raciales dans les préférences pour l'éducation peuvent expliquer une partie substantielle de la ségrégation raciale observée à Philadelphie en 1985.001A02H02N2Ségrégation17Segregation17Segregación17Afro Américain18African American18Afroamericano18Interaction19Interaction19Interacción19Modèle théorique20Theoretical model20Modelo teórico20Ménage21Household21Familia21Intégration22Integration22Integración22Modèle économétrique23Econometric model23Modelo econométrico23Modèle simulation24Simulation model24Modelo simulación2462H30INC7028XXINC71Préférence racialeCD96Racial preferenceCD96122OTOOTOConférence internationale du CEPRMans FRA2002-01-17 0937-941XOsteoporos. int.164The need for microsimulation to evaluate osteoporosis interventionsVANNESS (David J.)TOSTESON (Anna N. A.)GABRIEL (Sherine E.)MELTON (L. Joseph III)Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin Medical SchoolMadison, WI 53726USA1 aut.Department of Medicine, Dartmouth Medical SchoolLebanon, NHUSA2 aut.Department of Community and Family Medicine, Dartmouth Medical SchoolNH, LebanonUSA2 aut.Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic College of MedicineRochester, MNUSA3 aut.4 aut.353-3582005ENGINIST229743540001250748000100000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.39 ref.05-0183311PAOsteoporosis internationalGBRSimulations play an increasingly important role in the evaluation of osteoporosis interventions. Existing evaluations have been based on &dquot;reduced-form&dquot; cohort simulations that do not reflect the complexity and heterogeneity of osteoporosis and its outcomes. Such simplified models offer parsimony and ease of use, but they also are limited in their ability to explain and extrapolate outcomes in a way that is most useful for both clinical and health policy decision makers. Alternatively, evaluations could be based on &dquot;structural&dquot; microsimulations, which explicitly model the underlying biology of osteoporosis at the individual level. The structural approach presents technical challenges, including the need to obtain more-detailed data and the requirement that underlying biological models be validated. However, evaluations based on structural microsimulation may ultimately provide substantially more useful information, resulting in improved decision making.002B15ABesoin07Need07Necesidad07Ostéoporose08Osteoporosis08Osteoporosis08Analyse coût efficacité09Cost efficiency analysis09Análisis costo eficacia09Analyse décision13Decision analysis13Análisis decisión13Simulation14Simulation14Simulación14Système ostéoarticulaire pathologie37Diseases of the osteoarticular system37Sistema osteoarticular patología37Economie santé38Health economy38Economía salud38Santé publique39Public health39Salud pública39122OTOOTO 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1306Comparative analysis of household activity matching approaches in Transportation Analysis and Simulation SystemHOBEIKA (Antoine G.)PARADKAR (Rajan)Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia TechBlacksburg, VA 24061-0105USA1 aut.Michael Baker Jr. Inc., 801 Cromwell Park Dr., Suite 110Glen Burnie, MD 21061USA2 aut.706-7152004ENGINIST572E3540001225289700300000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3 ref.05-0141969PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSATransportation Analysis and Simulation System (TRANSIMS) is a microsimulation model, which uses census data to generate a synthetic population and assigns activities using activity survey data to each person of every household of the synthetic population. The synthetic households generated from the census data are matched with the survey households based on their demographic characteristics. The activities of the survey household individuals are then assigned to the individuals of the matched synthetic households. A classification and regression tree algorithm program is used to build the matching tree for the activity survey households based on some demographic independent variables. The current TRANSIMS model utilizes times spent at activities as dependent variables for building the classification tree. This research instead uses the travel times for travel between activities as dependent variables, i.e., using the travel time pattern instead of activity time pattern to match the persons in the survey households with the synthetic households. This approach assumes that if the travel time patterns are the same then we can match the survey households to the synthetic population, i.e., people with similar demographic characteristics tend to have similar travel time patterns. The algorithm of the activity generator module along with the original set of dependent variables were first used to generate a base case scenario. Further tests were carried out using an alternative set of dependent variables in the algorithm. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to test the affect of different sets of dependent and independent variables in generating activities using the algorithm of the activity generator. The paper documents the results from all these tests and provides conclusions and recommendations.001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Modèle simulation02Simulation model02Modelo simulación02Etude comparative03Comparative study03Estudio comparativo03Classification04Classification04Clasificación04Collecte donnée05Data gathering05Recolección dato05Modèle prévision06Forecast model06Modelo previsión06Voyage07Travel07Viaje07Ménage08Household08Familia08Enquête09Survey09Encuesta09Régression10Regression10Regresión10Implémentation11Implementation11Implementación11Démographie12Demography12Demografía12Scénario13Script13Argumento13Analyse sensibilité14Sensitivity analysis14Análisis sensibilidad14Etude cas15Case study15Estudio caso15Modèle TRANSIMSINC72094PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1884Analysis of delay caused by midblock jeepney stops with use of simulationTransit: bus, rural public transportation, and paratransitPALMIANO (Hilario Sean O.)YAI (Tetsuo)UEDA (Shimpei)FUKUDA (Daisuke)National Center for Transportation Studies, University of the Apacible Street, DilimanQuezon City 1101, Metro ManilaPHL1 aut.Department of Human Built Environment, Tokyo Institute of Technology, G3 Building 10F, 4259, Nagatsuta-choMidori-ku, Yokohama, 226-8502JPN2 aut.Yokohama City Environmental Bureau, Matsumura Building 7F, 1-13, Sumiyoshi-choNaka-ku, Yokohama, 231-0013JPN3 aut.Civil Engineering Department, Tokyo Institute of Technology, G3 Building 10F, 4259, Nagatsuta-choMidori-ku, Yokohama, 226-8502JPN4 aut.65-742004ENGINIST10459B3540001261176100800000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.12 ref.05-0125637PATransportation research recordUSAPublic transit enjoys an almost 80% share of trips in Metro Manila, and the most widely used is the paratransit vehicle called the jeepney. These 18- to 22-seat vehicles, which evolved from American army service jeeps left after World War II, provide inexpensive and convenient door-to-door service but cause disruptions in traffic flow because of aggressive and problematic driving behavior, particularly when stopping to pick up or unload passengers. Other vehicles are observed to experience delays, especially in the vicinity of midblock jeepney stops with high passenger demand. An overview of work done in building and validating a traffic microsimulation program focuses on modeling the distinctive stopping behavior of jeepneys that considers both transit vehicle and passenger agents. Propensity for nonobservance of lanes and aggressive lateral movements of general traffic are considered in the model. There is also a discussion of the result of simulation experiments that used the developed simulation model called JSTOPSIM and are designed to analyze trends on average vehicle delay experienced by through vehicles as passenger demand and volume of transit and non-public transit vehicles vary. The capability to quantify objectively delays attributable to jeepney stops is important in advocating policies to improve design and operation for the improvement of the public transit system as a whole.001D15BTransport voyageur01Passenger transportation01Transporte pasajero01Transport en commun non public02Paratransit02Transporte colectivo no público02PhilippinesNG03Philippine IslandsNG03FilipinasNG03Retard04Delay04Retraso04Analyse quantitative05Quantitative analysis05Análisis cuantitativo05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Ecoulement trafic07Traffic flow07Flujo tráfico07Arrêt08Shutdown08Parada08Validation09Validation09Validación09Corrélation spatiotemporelle10Space time correlation10Correlación espacio tiempo10AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG087PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1878Applying microscopic pedestrian flow simulation to railway station design evaluation in Lisbon, PortugalPedestrians and bicycles; developing countriesHOOGENDOORN (Serge P.)HAUSER (Miklos)RODRIGUES (Nuno)Transport and Planning Section, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, P.O. Box 50482600 GA DelftNLD1 aut.DHV Environment and Infrastructure, Unit Mobility and Transportation,AmersfoortNLD2 aut.3 aut.83-942004ENGINIST10459B3540001211820501100000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.20 ref.05-0123968PATransportation research recordUSAThe assessment of station designs by applying pedestrian flow simulation models is addressed. In particular, station design issues pertain to the way access gates will affect pedestrian flow operations in regard to levels of service, congestion levels, average walking times, delays incurred at gates, and so forth. Effects of different system layouts are studied, as well as the difference between different gate systems (low- and high-capacity systems), in regard to processing passenger flows. Finally, pedestrian flow operations in case of emergency situations are of interest. To examine those issues, pedestrian traffic operations for different station design alternatives are predicted with the dynamic microscopic pedestrian flow model NOMAD. That is done for reference situations (validation) as well as for design alternatives. The NOMAD model has been extended with a new module describing pedestrian operations (i.e., user-optimal gate choice) at the gates. It is found that the simple design guidelines used to set up the design alternatives provide a satisfactory level of service to transferring pedestrians and that the gates can be installed without compromising passenger safety. Nevertheless, the need to reroute, inefficient gate use, and interactions between conflicting pedestrian flows cause small but significant delays to transferring pedestrians that cannot have been predicted without the use of an adequate microsimulation model.001D15CTrafic piéton01Pedestrian traffic01Tráfico peatones01Ecoulement trafic02Traffic flow02Flujo tráfico02Gare ferroviaire03Railroad station03Estación ferroviaria03PortugalNG04PortugalNG04PortugalNG04Modèle simulation05Simulation model05Modelo simulación05Modèle microscopique06Microscopic model06Modelo microscópico06Méthodologie07Methodology07Metodología07Indicateur08Indicator08Indicador08Evaluation performance09Performance evaluation09Evaluación prestación09Résultat10Result10Resultado10Scénario11Script11Argumento11Recommandation12Recommendation12Recomendación12EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG080PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1876Guidelines for calibration of microsimulation models: Framework and applicationsCalibration and Validation of Simulation Models 2004DOWLING (Richard)SKABARDONIS (Alexander)HALKIAS (John)MCHALE (Gene)ZAMMIT (Grant)Dowling Associates, Inc., 180 Grand Avenue, Suite 250Oakland, CA 94612USA1 aut.Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley, 109 McLaughlin HallBerkeley, CA 94720-1720USA2 aut.FHWA, Office of Operations, Transportation Management, 400 7th Street, SW, HOTM-1Washington, D.C. 20590USA3 aut.FHWA, Office of Operations, Research and Development, Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center, 6300 Georgetown Pike, HRDO-4McLean, VA 22101USA4 aut.FHWA, 61 Forsyth, Street., SW, Suite 17T26Atlanta, GA 30303USA5 aut.1-92004ENGINIST10459B3540001264689000100000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.13 ref.05-0111930PATransportation research recordUSAThe past few years have seen a rapid evolution in the sophistication of traffic microsimulation models and a consequent major expansion of their use in transportation engineering and planning practice. Researchers and practitioners have employed an extensive array of approaches to calibrate these models and have selected a wide range of parameters to calibrate and a broad range of acceptance criteria. A methodical, top-down approach to model calibration is outlined; it focuses the initial effort on a few key parameters that have the greatest impact on model performance and then proceeds to less critical parameters to finalize the calibration. A three-step calibration/validation process is recommended. First, the model is calibrated for capacity at the key bottlenecks in the system (the capacity calibration step). Second, the model is calibrated for traffic flows at nonbottleneck locations in the system (the route choice calibration step). Finally, the overall model performance is calibrated against field-measured system performance measures such as travel time and delay (the system performance calibration step). This three-step process is illustrated in an example application for a freeway/arterial corridor.001D15B001D15CEcoulement trafic01Traffic flow01Flujo tráfico01Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Modèle microscopique04Microscopic model04Modelo microscópico04Etalonnage05Calibration05Contraste05Méthodologie06Methodology06Metodología06Validation07Validation07Validación07Recommandation08Recommendation08Recomendación08Evaluation performance09Performance evaluation09Evaluación prestación09Mesure in situ10Measurement in situ10Medición en sitio10Application11Application11Aplicación11Exemple12Example12Ejemplo12Capacité13Capacity13Capacidad13073PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1876Development of a high-level algorithm verification and validation procedure for traffic microsimulation modelsCalibration and Validation of Simulation Models 2004REINKE (David)DOWLING (Richard)HRANAC (Robert)ALEXIADIS (Vassilios)Dowling Associates, Inc., 180 Grand Avenue, Suite 250Oakland, CA 94612-3774USA1 aut.2 aut.Cambridge Systematics, Inc., 555 12th Street, Suite 1600Oakland, CA 94607USA3 aut.4 aut.151-1582004ENGINIST10459B3540001264689001600000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.12 ref.05-0111769PATransportation research recordUSAThe successful acceptance of traffic microsimulation software depends crucially on the verification and validation (V&V) procedures for testing the core behavioral algorithms. These must be sufficient to convince researchers, software developers, and practitioners that the algorithms are accurate and robust. V&V procedures must also be well documented to ensure public acceptance. A suggested V&V procedure is presented. The central theme is that verification and validation are integral parts of the entire algorithm development process. A three-stage algorithm development and V&V procedure for traffic microsimulation algorithms is recommended. Algorithm development includes identifying key variables and setting model parameters. Next, the software implementation of the algorithm is tested during the algorithm-level testing stage with a combination of hypothetical and simple real-world data. Finally, system-level testing of the algorithm software is done within a complete microsimulation modeling system. In the last stage, the system with the new algorithm is tested against complex real-world data sets.001D15B001D15CModèle simulation01Simulation model01Modelo simulación01Modèle microscopique02Microscopic model02Modelo microscópico02Ecoulement trafic03Traffic flow03Flujo tráfico03Algorithme04Algorithm04Algoritmo04Validation05Validation05Validación05Vérification06Verification06Verificación06Outil logiciel07Software tool07Herramienta software07Norme ISO08ISO standard08Norma ISO08Méthodologie09Methodology09Metodología09Modèle comportement10Behavior model10Modelo comportamiento10Acceptation11Acceptance11Aceptación11Exemple12Example12Ejemplo12Automobile13Motor car13Automóvil13Conducteur véhicule14Vehicle driver14Conductor vehículo14073PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1876Congested freeway microsimulation model using VISSIMCalibration and Validation of Simulation Models 2004GOMES (Gabriel)MAY (Adolf)HOROWITZ (Roberto) 2168 Etcheverry Hall, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of CaliforniaBerkeley, CA 94720USA1 aut.108A McLaughlin Hall, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of CaliforniaBerkeley, CA 94720USA2 aut.6193 Etcheverry Hall, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of California Berkeley, CA 94720.USA3 aut.71-812004ENGINIST10459B3540001264689000800000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.05-0111130PATransportation research recordUSAA procedure for constructing and calibrating a detailed model of a freeway by using VISSIM is presented and applied to a 15-mi stretch of I-210 West in Pasadena, California. This test site provides several challenges for microscopic modeling: a high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lane with an intermittent barrier, a heavy freeway connector, 20 metered on-ramps with and without HOV bypass lanes, and three interacting bottlenecks. Field data used as input to the model were compiled from two separate sources: loop detectors on the on-ramps and main line (PeMS) and a manual survey of on-ramps and off-ramps. Gaps in both sources made it necessary to use a composite data set, constructed from several typical days. FREQ was used as an intermediate tool to generate a set of origin-destination matrices from the assembled boundary flows. The model construction procedure consists of (1) identification of important geometric features, (2) collection and processing of traffic data, (3) analysis of the main-line data to identify recurring bottlenecks, (4) VISSIM coding, and (5) calibration based on observations from Step 3. A qualitative set of goals was established for the calibration. These were met with relatively few modifications to VISSIM's driver behavior parameters.001D15B001D15CModèle simulation01Simulation model01Modelo simulación01Ecoulement trafic02Traffic flow02Flujo tráfico02Autoroute03Freeway03Autopista03Congestion trafic04Traffic congestion04Congestión tráfico04Trafic routier05Road traffic05Tráfico carretera05Collecte donnée06Data gathering06Recolección dato06Modèle origine destination07Origin destination model07Modelo origen destinación07Etalonnage08Calibration08Contraste08Goulot étranglement09Bottleneck09Gollete estrangulamiento09Voie circulation10Traffic lane10Vía tráfico10Comportement11Behavior11Conducta11Conducteur véhicule12Vehicle driver12Conductor vehículo12Paramètre13Parameter13Parámetro13Modèle VISSIMINC72073PSIPSI 0140-9883EECODREnergy econ.264Response from a MARKAL technology model to the EMF scenario assumptionsEMF 19 Alternative technology strategies for climate change policySMEKENS-RAMIREZ MORALES (Koen E. L.)WEYANT (John P.)ed.New and Renewable Energy, ECN Policy Studies. PO Box 11755 ZG, PettenNLD1 aut.Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford UniversityStanfordUSA1 aut.655-6742004ENGINIST182313540001203776900800000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.05-0041576PAEnergy economicsGBRThis paper describes the modelling effort and analysis undertaken at ECN Policy Studies in the EMF-19 framework by using the Western European MARKAL model. The model structure and the advanced economic feed back formulation used is briefly described. Scenarios introducing carbon emissions reduction targets (by concentration level or by carbon taxes) lead to changes in energy mix, in technology deployment and in electricity production compared to a reference case. The impact and importance of carbon capture and storage as it appears as part of the solution to achieve the emission targets is analysed.001D06A01B001D06A01A001D16C04A001D06A01C1230Politique énergétique01Energy policy01Política energética01Prévention pollution02Pollution prevention02Prevención polución02Lutte antipollution03Pollution control03Lucha anticontaminación03Pollution air04Air pollution04Contaminación aire04Carbone dioxydeNKFX05Carbon dioxideNKFX05Carbono dióxidoNKFX05Simulation06Simulation06Simulación06Long terme07Long term07Largo plazo07Consommation énergie08Energy consumption08Consumo energía08Répartition par source09Distribution by sources09Repartición por fuente09Optimisation économique10Economic optimization10Optimización económica10Optimisation sous contrainte11Constrained optimization11Optimización con restricción11Quota12Quota12Emission polluant13Pollutant emission13Emisión contaminante13Taxation14Taxation14Tasación14Séquestration carbone15Carbon sequestration15Secuestro carbono15Energie primaire16Primary energy16Energía primaria16Energie finale17Final energy17Programmation linéaire18Linear programming18Programación lineal18Modèle économétrique19Econometric model19Modelo econométrico19Modèle MARKALINC72017PSIPSI 0342-4642ICMED9Intensive care med. : (Print)3012Dynamic microsimulation to model multiple outcomes in cohorts of critically ill patientsCLERMONT (Gilles)KAPLAN (Vladimir)MORENO (Rui)VINCENT (Jean-Louis)LINDE-ZWIRBLE (Walter T.)VAN HOUT (Ben)ANGUS (Derek C.)Room 606B, Scaife Hall, Critical Care Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, 3550 Terrace StreetPittsburgh, PA, 15261USA1 aut.2 aut.7 aut.Intensive Care Medicine, Hospital de St. Antonio dos CapuchosLisbonPRT3 aut.Department of Intensive Care, Erasmus University HospitalBrusselsBEL4 aut.Health Process ManagementDoylestown, PAUSA5 aut.Department of Health Care Policy and Management, Erasmus UniversityRotterdamNLD6 aut.Center for Research on Health Care and Graduate School of Public Health, University of PittsburghPittsburgh, PAUSA7 aut.2237-22442004ENGINIST162563540001228741401300000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.23 ref.05-0028530PAIntensive care medicine : (Print)DEUBackground: Existing intensive care unit (ICU) prediction tools forecast single outcomes, (e.g., risk of death) and do not provide information on timing. Objective: To build a model that predicts the temporal patterns of multiple outcomes, such as survival, organ dysfunction, and ICU length of stay, from the profile of organ dysfunction observed on admission. Design: Dynamic microsimulation of a cohort of ICU patients. Setting: 49Forty-nine ICUs in 11 countries. Patients: One thousand four hundred and forty-nine patients admitted to the ICU in May 1995. Interventions: None. Model construction: We developed the model on all patients (n=989) from 37 randomly-selected ICUs using daily Sequential Organ Function Assessment (SOFA) scores. We validated the model on all patients (n=460) from the remaining 12 ICUs, comparing predicted-to-actual ICU mortality, SOFA scores, and ICU length of stay (LOS). Main results: In the validation cohort, the predicted and actual mortality were 20.1% (95%CI: 16.2%-24.0%) and 19.9% at 30 days. The predicted and actual mean ICU LOS were 7.7 (7.0-8.3) and 8.1 (7.4-8.8) days, leading to a 5.5% underestimation of total ICU bed-days. The predicted and actual cumulative SOFA scores per patient were 45.2 (39.8-50.6) and 48.2 (41.6-54.8). Predicted and actual mean daily SOFA scores were close (5.1 vs 5.5, P=0.32). Several organ-organ interactions were significant. Cardiovascular dysfunction was most, and neurological dysfunction was least, linked to scores in other organ systems. Conclusions: Dynamic microsimulation can predict the time course of multiple short-term outcomes in cohorts of critical illness from the profile of organ dysfunction observed on admission. Such a technique may prove practical as a prediction tool that evaluates ICU performance on additional dimensions besides the risk of death.002B27B002B27C002B27B01Réanimation02Resuscitation02Reanimación02Soin intensif03Intensive care03Cuidado intensivo03Pronostic05Prognosis05Pronóstico05Malade état grave06Critically ill06Enfermo estado grave06Homme08Human08Hombre08010OTOOTO 0224-4365Trav. emp : (Paris)10035 heures : les experts font la loiBOISARD (Pierre)Centre d'études de l'emploiFRA1 aut.10, 85-98 [15 p.]2004FREINIST222843540001226303500700000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.3/4521-05-14295PATravail et emploi : (Paris)FRA35 hour week : Experts laying down the lawLes loi Aubry I et II relatives à la réduction du temps de travail ont laissé peu de place aux partenaires sociaux dans la construction de nouvelles règles ; a contrario elles ont accru le rôle des experts économiques. L'auteur veut montrer qu'elles ont été élaborées à partir des conclusions des simulations économétriques, et ont minimisé la création d'un consensus minimal, au profit d'aspects économiques. Un rappel historique évoque les premières simulations économétriques, puis les nombreuses évaluations macroéconomiques tentant d'évaluer ses effets en termes d'emploi. Mais des études microéconomiques modulent ces résultats et soulignent la nécessité de véritables négociations pour imposer une visée de partage de l'emploi. En 1998, le choix d'une loi-cadre et d'une négociation décentralisée plutôt que d'un accord interprofessionnel national fragilisera ce processus déjà délicat.52135X521Législation sociale01Social Legislation01Droit du travail02Labour Law02Réduction03Reduction03Temps de travail04Working time04FranceNG05FranceNG05Rôle politique06Political Role06Expert07Expert07Comparaison08Comparison08Simulation09Simulation09Modèle économétrique10Econometric Model10Historique11Case History11Efficacité économique12Economic effectiveness12Econométrie13Econometric Analysis13Emploi14Employment14Besoin15Need15Négociation collective16Collective Bargaining16Partenaire social17Social partner17Modèle micro-économiqueNIINC31Modèle macro-économiqueNIINC32220PSIPSI 0022-4146451Microsimulation for local impact analysis : an application to plant shutdownREPHANN (T.J.)MÄKILÄ (K.)HOLM (E.)183-22214 fig., 1 tabl., annexe2005ENGengINTG82003 p.531-05-12055PAJournal of regional scienceUSALes AA. décrivent un modèle de microsimulation susceptible d'être utilisé pour étudier l'impact d'un événement économique régional. Le modèle prend en compte des facteurs spatiaux, sociaux et économiques, et il autorise une aggrégation à des échelles géographiques diverses, pour des cohortes diverses, et pour des variables que l'on ne prend pas couramment en considération dans une étude d'impact. Exemple d'une fermeture d'établissement en Suède531132IV531Simulation56301Simulation56301Impact économique56302Economic impact56302Fermeture d'usine56303Factory closure56303Micro-simulationNIINC04Modèle56305Model56305Economie régionale56306Regional economy56306Structure socio-économique56307Socio-economic system56307Emploi56308Employment56308SuèdeNG22SwedenNG22U106!03,02,04,05!22U101!04,05!03,02,06192 0874-65406Reflections on regional science in business&dquot;Informação geográfica : do conhecimento à acção&dquot;CLARKE (G.)11-316 tabl., 6 fig., équations2002ENGengfreporINTG820025 ref.531-05-11070PAGeoINovaPRT&dquot;Information géographique : de la connaissance à l'action&dquot;Le but de cet article est de récapituler les arguments justifiant la nécessité et les avantages de l'utilisation des systèmes d'information géographique qui permettent de réaliser des modèles d'aide à la décision dans divers domaines de la science régionale. Une série d'exemples d'application pratique développée au département de géographie de l'Université de Leeds est présentée à partir de deux méthodologies principales : modèles d'interaction spatiale et modèles de microsimulation5318AI531Science régionale56301Regional science56301Modèle56302Model56302Interaction spatiale56303Spatial interaction56303MicrosimulationNIINC04Système d'information géographique56305Geographical information system56305Recherche56306Research56306Recherche opérationnelle56307Operational research56307Optimisation56308Optimization56308Géographie appliquée56309Applied geography56309Analyse spatiale56310Spatial analysis56310Modèle dynamique56311Dynamic model56311Modèle de décision56312Decision model56312U110!03,02!05,04,01U106!07,01!04,03,05U105!04,07!01,10108 1149-1590Rech. previs. : (Paris)75Les aides publiques à la garde des jeunes enfants : Une analyse à partir du modèle de microsimulation MYRIADE : EnfanceLEGENDRE (Francois)LORGNET (Jean-Paul)MAHIEU (Ronan)THIBAULT (Florence)ÉRUDITE/université de Pavis-XH. CNAF-Département des statistiques, des prévisions et des analysesFRA1 aut.CNAF - Département des statistiques, des prévisions et des analyses (DSER)FRA2 aut.3 aut.CNAF - DSER/Centre d'économie de Paris-Nord/Université de Paris XIIIFRA4 aut.5-20, 75 [16 p.]2004FREengINIST229183540001168454600100000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.521-05-10677PARecherches et prévisions : (Paris)FRAState support for childcare. An analysis using the MYRIADE microsimulation model : ChildhoodLes parents d'enfants nés à partir du 1^er janvier 2004 peuvent bénéficier d'une nouvelle prestation, la prestation d'accueil du jeune enfant (PAJE), dont la vocation est à la fois de mieux les solvabiliser s'ils optent pour une garde payante et de les soutenir financièrement s'ils réduisent leur activité professionnelle afin de s'occuper eux-mêmes de leurs enfants. Pour mieux rendre compte des effets budgétaires et redistributifs de cette nouvelle prestation, le modèle de microsimulation de la Caisse nationale des allocations familiales - MYRIADE -a été amendé. Il s'agissait: de mieux décrire la situation antérieure à la réforme - en matière de modes de garde - afin de simuler plus précisément les effets potentiels de modifications de la réglementation dans ce domaine. En plus de la PAJE, deux réformes alternatives des prestations en vigueur en 2003 sont étudiées dans cet article. En fournissant des éléments comparatifs, leur analyse permet d'apprécier les options retenues dans le cadre de la nouvelle prestation.52164XVI521Allocations familiales01Family allowance01Prestation sociale02Social Allowance02Enfant03Child03Garde des enfants04Child care service04FranceNG05FranceNG05Politique sociale06Social Policy06Réforme07Reform07Analyse comparative08Comparative analysis08Statistiques09Statistics09024PSIPSI 1167-4687Retraite soc. : (Paris)40Les retraites au futur simulations et projectionsCOLIN (Christel)METTE (Corinne)BRIARD (Karine)PENNEC (Sophie)PRIVAT (Anne-Gisèle)BELHAJ (Hanène)BLANCHET (Didier)DreesFRA1 aut.2 aut.OnavFRA3 aut.CnavFRA4 aut.5 aut.Université Paris 9, DauphineFRA6 aut.InseeFRA7 aut.2003FRE24-167INIST274123540001167344000100000© 2005 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.dissem.521-05-10323PMRetraite et société : (Paris)FRARetirements in the future: simulations and projectionsCet ensemble d'articles se consacre à l'analyse des différents facteurs qui concourent à façonner les retraites des assurés sociaux en France. Les AA. se servent ici de modèles de microsimulation afin d'émettre des hypothèses à plus ou moins long terme concernant le montant et les diverses formes de capitalisations des futures retraites52142AXII521Retraite01Retirement01FranceNG02FranceNG02Carrière professionnelle03Professional career03Typologie04Typology04Simulation05Simulation05Sociologie économique06Economic sociology06Assurance vieillesse07Retirement benefit07Régime de retraite08Retirement Plan08Régime complémentaire09Complementary Health Care System09Statistiques10Statistics10Analyse multivariée11Multivariate Analysis11010PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1867Estimation of travel times on urban freeways under incident conditionsFreeway Operations and Traffic Signal Systems 2004HOBEIKA (Antoine)DHULIPALA (Sudheer)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Polytechnic and State UniversityBlacksburg, VA 24061-0105USA1 aut.2 aut.97-1062004ENGINIST10459B3540001206325201200000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.14 ref.04-0604821PATransportation research recordUSATravelers on urban freeways are interested in knowing how long it will take them to reach their destinations, especially under bottleneck, congested, and incident conditions. Travel time information is important for advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) applications and for assessing the performance of the transportation network. Though many advances have been made in the field of traffic engineering and intelligent transportation system applications, practical travel time estimation procedures for ATIS applications under incident conditions are lacking. An algorithm for travel time estimation on urban freeways for ATIS applications under incident conditions is presented. The algorithm is based on point estimates of traffic variables obtained from detectors placed on every link of the freeway network. The output required from the detectors is flow and occupancy aggregated for a short time interval (5 min). The system for travel time estimation is based on traffic flow theory rather than on statistical methods. The travel times calculated using this system are compared with the results obtained using the FHWA microsimulation computer package CORSIM in the Traffic Software Integrated System (TSIS) Version 5.0. The algorithm results are found to be reasonable and accurate compared with CORSIM results.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Autoroute02Freeway02Autopista02Durée trajet03Travel time03Duración trayecto03Voie urbaine rapide04Urban expressway04Vía urbana rápida04Système information05Information system05Sistema información05Incident06Mishap06Incidente06Détection07Detection07Detección07Algorithme08Algorithm08Algoritmo08Arbre décision09Decision tree09Arbol decisión09Méthode calcul10Computing method10Método cálculo10Validation12Validation12Validación12Goulot étranglement13Bottleneck13Gollete estrangulamiento13Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15348PSIPSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1867Minnesota's new ramp control strategy: Design overview and preliminary assessmentFreeway Operations and Traffic Signal Systems 2004WUPING XINMICHALOPOULOS (Panos G.)HOURDAKIS (John)DOUG LAUDepartment of Civil Engineering, 500 Pillsbury Drive S E.Minneapolis, MN 55455USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.Regional Transportation Management Center, Minnesota Department of Transportation, 1500 West Co. Rd 8-2Roseville, MN 55113USA4 aut.69-792004ENGINIST10459B3540001206325200900000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.11 ref.04-0604244PATransportation research recordUSAFreeway ramp control has been successfully implemented in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area since the early 1970s. However, the recent ramp metering controversy highlighted the need for a less restrictive ramp control strategy that maximizes freeway capacity utilization while limiting ramp wait times. As a result, a new multilayer ramp control strategy called stratified ramp control was recently developed and deployed systemwide in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. This strategy determines the metering rates from freeway conditions as well as from real-time ramp demand and ramp queue size, indicating a shift of emphasis away from freeway flow toward the balance between both freeway efficiency and reduced ramp delays. Minnesota's new ramp control strategy is detailed along with a preliminary assessment of its effectiveness. The evaluation is accomplished by comparing the new strategy to its predecessor, ZONE metering, through rigorous microsimulation. The preliminary results suggest that the stratified ramp control strategy is effective in reducing ramp delays and limiting ramp wait times below the prescribed value. However, peak-hour freeway congestion is extended in both time and space as opposed to that with the ZONE metering strategy and reveals a compromised freeway performance in favor of virtually reducing ramp delays.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Autoroute02Freeway02Autopista02MinnesotaNG03MinnesotaNG03MinesotaNG03Comptage trafic04Traffic meter04Contaje tráfico04Conception05Design05Diseño05Contrôle06Check06Control06Stratégie07Strategy07Estrategia07Zone urbaine08Urban area08Zona urbana08Modèle stratifié09Stratified model09Modelo estratificado09Zone10Zone10Zona10Evaluation11Evaluation11Evaluación11Essai en place12In situ test12Ensayo en sitio12Résultat13Result13Resultado13Distribution vitesse14Velocity distribution14Distribución velocidad14Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG348PSIPSI 1355-6037Heart : (Lond. 1996)9010Comparison of outcomes after aortic valve replacement with a mechanical valve or a bioprosthesis using microsimulationPUVIMANASINGHE (J. P. A.)TAKKENBERG (J. J. M.)EDWARDS (M. B.)EIJKEMANS (M. J. C.)STEYERBERG (E. W.)VAN HERWERDEN (L. A.)TAYLOR (K. M.)GRUNKEMEIER (G. L.)HABBEMA (J. D. F.)BOGERS (A. J. J. C.)Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Erasmus MCRotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.6 aut.10 aut.Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Imperial College School of MedicineLondonGBR3 aut.7 aut.Centre for Clinical Decision Sciences, Department of Public Health, Erasmus MCRotterdamNLD4 aut.5 aut.9 aut.Providence Health SystemPortland, OregonUSA8 aut.1172-11782004ENGINIST39953540001203653002100000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.45 ref.04-0533256PAHeart : (London 1996)GBRBackground: Mechanical valves and bioprostheses are widely used for aortic valve replacement. Though previous randomised studies indicate that there is no important difference in outcome after implantation with either type of valve, knowledge of outcomes after aortic valve replacement is incomplete. Objective: To predict age and sex specific outcomes of patients after aortic valve replacement with bileaflet mechanical valves and stented porcine bioprostheses, and to provide evidence based support for the choice of prosthesis. Methods: Meta-analysis of published results of primary aortic valve replacement with bileaflet mechanical prostheses (nine reports, 4274 patients, and 25 726 patient-years) and stented porcine bioprostheses (13 reports, 9007 patients, and 54 151 patient-years) was used to estimate the annual risks of postoperative valve related events and their outcomes. These estimates were entered into a microsimulation model, which was employed to calculate age and sex specific outcomes after aortic valve replacement. Results: Life expectancy (LE) and event-free life expectancy (EFLE) for a 65 year old man after implantation with a mechanical valve or a bioprosthesis were 10.4 and 10.7 years and 7.7 and 8.4 years, respectively. The lifetime risk of at least one valve related event for a mechanical valve was 48%, and for a bioprosthesis, 44%. For LE and EFLE, the age crossover point between the two valve types was 59 and 60 years, respectively. Conclusions: Meta-analysis based microsimulation provides insight into the long term outcome after aortic valve replacement and suggests that the currently recommended age threshold for implanting a bioprosthesis could be lowered further.002B12Etude comparative02Comparative study02Estudio comparativo02Pronostic03Prognosis03Pronóstico03Evolution05Evolution05Evolución05Valvule aortique06Aortic valve06Válvula aórtica06Remplacement08Replacement08Reemplazo08Soupape09Valve09Válvula09Bioprothèse11Bioprosthesis11Bioprótesis11299OTOOTO 0047-259XJMVAAIJ. multivar. anal.912Multivariate spatial regression modelsGAMERMAN (Dani)MOREIRA (Ajax R. B.)Instituto de Maremática, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Caixa Postal 6853021945-970 Rio de Janeiro, RJBRA1 aut.Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica AplicadaBRA2 aut.262-2812004ENGINIST157223540001223861500800000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.39 ref.04-0527157PAJournal of multivariate analysisUSAThis paper describes the inference procedures required to perform Bayesian inference to some multivariate econometric models. These models have a spatial component built into commonly used multivariate models. In particular, the common component models are addressed and extended to accommodate for spatial dependence. Inference procedures are based on a variety of simulation-based schemes designed to obtain samples from the posterior distribution of model parameters. They are also used to provide a basis to forecast new observations.001A02H02I001A02H02J001A02H02N2Analyse multivariable17Multivariate analysis17Análisis multivariable17Modèle régression18Regression model18Modelo regresión18Estimation statistique20Statistical estimation20Estimación estadística20Estimation Bayes21Bayes estimation21Estimación Bayes21Modèle économétrique23Econometric model23Modelo econométrico23Plan expérience25Experimental design25Plan experiencia25Loi a posteriori26Posterior distribution26Ley a posteriori26Méthode statistique28Statistical method28Método estadístico2862JxxINC7062F15INC7162P20INC7262K99INC7360E05INC74Régression multivariableCD96Multivariate regressionCD96299OTOOTO 0306-7734ISTRDPInt. stat. rev.721Estimation of the option prime: Microsimulation of backward stochastic differential equationsALLENDE (Héctor)ELIAS (Carlos)TORRES (Soledad)Department of Informatics, Federico Santa María Technical UniversityValparaísoCHL1 aut.Faculty of Science and Technology, Adolfo Ibañez UniversityViña del MarCHL1 aut.2 aut.Department of Statistics, University of ValparaísoValparaísoCHL3 aut.107-1212004ENGfreINIST11013540001203202600800000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.14 ref.04-0521143PAInternational statistical reviewNLDUn modèle statistique mathématique est nécessaire afin de déterminer la prime d'une option et pour créer une stratégie de couverture. Avec de formules dérivées d'équations différentielles stochastiques, les primes des currency options entre le dollar américains et le peso chilien sont obtenus à l'aide d'un tableur. De plus, une simulation du comportement de la prime de l'option est utilisée avec une méthode numérique crée pour d'équations différentielles stochastiques retour en arrière. L'utilisation des statistiques en Finance est fortement importante dans le développement de produits complexes.001A02H01I001A02H02N2Equation différentielle stochastique rétrograde18Backward stochastic differential equation18Ecuación diferencial estocástica hacia atrás18Modèle statistique21Statistical model21Modelo estadístico21Simulation24Simulation24Simulación24Méthode numérique25Numerical method25Método numérico25Finance26Finance26Finanzas26Méthode statistique28Statistical method28Método estadístico2860H35INC7060H10INC71Equation différentielle stochastiqueINC72Statistique LINC7362P05INC74292OTOOTO 0022-2585JMENA6J. med. entomol.411Uptake of Onchocerca volvulus (Nematoda: Onchocercidae) by Simulium (Diptera: Simuliidae) is not strongly dependent on the density of skin microfilariae in the human hostSOUMBEY-ALLEY (Edoh)BASANEZ (Maria-Gloria)BISSAN (Yeriba)BOATIN (Boakye A.)REMME (Jan H. F.)NAGELKERKE (Nico J. D.)DE VLAS (Sake J.)BORSBOOM (Gerard J. J. M.)HABBEMA (J. Dik F.)World Health Organization, Onchocerciasis Control Program, B.P. 549OuagadougouBFA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.5 aut.6 aut.7 aut.8 aut.9 aut.83-942004ENGINIST115363540001134402601300000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/204-0468106PAJournal of medical entomologyUSAThe relation between the number of microfilariae (mf) ingested by host-seeking vectors of human onchocerciasis and skin mf load is an important component of the population biology of Onchocerca volvulus, with implications for disease control and evaluation of the risk of transmission recrudescence. The microsimulation model ONCHOSIM has been used to assess such risk in the area of the Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP) in West Africa, based on a strongly nonlinear relation between vector mf uptake and human mf skin density previously published. However, observed levels of recrudescence have exceeded predictions, warranting a recalibration of the model. To this end, we present the results of a series of fly-feeding experiments carried out in savanna and forest localities of West Africa. Flies belonging to Simulium damnosum s.s., S. sirbanum, S. soubrense, and S. leonense were fed on mf carriers and dissected to assess the number of ingested mf escaping imprisonment by the peritrophic matrix (the number of exo-peritrophic mf), a predictor of infective larval output. The method of instrumental variables was used to obtain (nearly) unbiased estimates of the parameters of interest, taking into account error in the measurement of skin mf density. This error is often neglected in these types of studies, making it difficult to ascertain the degree of density-dependence truly present in the relation between mf uptake and skin load. We conclude that this relation is weakly (yet significantly) nonlinear in savanna settings but indistinguishable from linearity in forest vectors. Exo-peritrophic mf uptake does not account for most of the density dependence in the transmission dynamics of the parasite as previously thought. The number of exo-mf in forest simuliids is at least five times higher than in the savanna vectors. Parasite abundance in human onchocerciasis is regulated by poorly known mechanisms operating mainly on other stages of the lifecycle.002A37ACaptation01Uptake01Captación01NematodaNS02NematodaNS02NematodaNS02DipteraNS03DipteraNS03DipteraNS03SimuliidaeNS04SimuliidaeNS04SimuliidaeNS04Densité dépendance05Density dependence05Densidad dependencia05Peau06Skin06Piel06Homme07Human07Hombre07Hôte08Host08Huesped08Parasite09Parasite09Parásito09Vecteur10Vector10Vector10Onchocerca volvulusNS55Onchocerca volvulusNS55Onchocerca volvulusNS55Simulium damnosumNS56Simulium damnosumNS56Simulium damnosumNS56NemathelminthiaNSNemathelminthiaNSNemathelminthiaNSHelminthaNSHelminthaNSHelminthaNSInvertebrataNSInvertebrataNSInvertebrataNSInsectaNSInsectaNSInsectaNSArthropodaNSArthropodaNSArthropodaNS264OTOOTO 0336-1454366La redistribution intragénérationnelle dans le système de retraite des salariés du privé : une approche par microsimulationWALRAET (E.)VINCENT (A.)Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques. (I.N.S.E.E.). Paris.FRA31-618 tabl., 8 graph.2003-12FREBDSP/CREDESS18, CODBAR 000162, 000163880012 ref.04-0438048PAECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUEFRAL'impact redistributif du système de retraite français des salariés du privé est analysé dans ce document pour les générations nées dans les années 1950, avant la réforme intervenue en 2003. Les transferts redistributifs sont évalués en se fondant sur la comparaison des taux de rendement interne. La redistribution intragénérationnelle peut s'apprécier selon deux dimensions : une dimension verticale, en fonction du salaire ; une dimension horizontale, essentiellement liée au nombre d'enfants. Afin de neutraliser les transferts induits par le système de retraite entre membres d'un même ménage (surtout de l'homme vers la femme), la redistribution est envisagée au niveau des individus mais aussi des couples. L'analyse est menée à partir de l'enquête Patrimoine 1998, complétée au moyen du modèle de microsimulation dynamique Destinie002B30A11AgeAgeEdadRetraiteRetirementJubilaciónSexeSexSexoSecteur privéPrivate sectorSector privadoPersonne âgéeElderlyAncianoPolitiquePolicyPolíticaSalaireWageSalarioModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoSimulationSimulationSimulaciónFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGHommeHumanHombreEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG243 0049-4488TNPRDNTransportation313Network effects of intelligent speed adaptation systemsLIU (Ronghui)TATE (James)Institute for Transport Studies, University of LeedsLeeds LS2 9JTGBR1 aut.2 aut.297-3252004ENGINIST159853540001102761300300000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/204-0433760PATransportationNLDIntelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA) systems use in-vehicle electronic devices to enable the speed of vehicles to be regulated automatically. They are increasingly appreciated as a flexible method for speed management and control particularly in urban areas. On-road trials using a small numbers of ISA equipped vehicles have been carried out in Sweden, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK. This paper describes the developments made to enhance a traffic microsimulation model in order to represent ISA implemented across a network and the impact of this on the networks. The simulation modelling of the control system is carried out on a real-world urban network, and the impacts on traffic congestion, speed distribution and the environment assessed. The results show that ISA systems are more effective in less congested traffic conditions. Momentary high speeds in traffic are effectively suppressed, resulting in a reduction in speed variation which is likely to have a beneficial impact on safety. Whilst ISA reduces excessive traffic speeds in the network, it does not affect average journey times. In particular, the total vehicle-hours travelling at speeds below 10 km/hr have not changed, indicating that the speed control had not induced more slow-moving queues to the network. A statistically significant, eight percent, reduction in fuel consumption was found with full ISA penetration. These results are in accordance with those from field trials and they provide the basis for cost-benefit analyses on introducing ISA into the vehicle fleet. However, contrary to earlier findings from the Swedish ISA road trials, this study suggested that ISA is likely to have no significant effect on emission of gaseous pollutants CO, NO_x and HC.001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Gestion trafic02Traffic management02Gestión tráfico02Système intelligent03Intelligent system03Sistema inteligente03Régulation vitesse04Speed regulation04Regulación velocidad04Vitesse déplacement05Speed05Velocidad desplazamiento05Instrument embarqué06On board apparatus06Aparato a bordo06Système automatique07Automatic system07Sistema automático07Essai en place08In situ test08Ensayo en sitio08Zone urbaine09Urban area09Zona urbana09EspagneNG10SpainNG10EspañaNG10SuèdeNG11SwedenNG11SueciaNG11Pays BasNG12NetherlandsNG12HolandaNG12Implémentation13Implementation13Implementación13Modèle simulation14Simulation model14Modelo simulación14Scénario15Script15Argumento15Etude comparative18Comparative study18Estudio comparativo18Ecoulement trafic19Traffic flow19Flujo tráfico19Durée trajet20Travel time20Duración trayecto20Consommation combustible21Fuel consumption21Consumo combustible21Emission polluant22Pollutant emission22Emisión contaminante22Analyse régression23Regression analysis23Análisis regresión23Régression linéaire24Linear regression24Regresión lineal24Distribution vitesse25Velocity distribution25Distribución velocidad25EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG243PSIPSI 0007-0920BJCAAIBr. J. cancer902Cost-effectiveness of stereotactic large-core needle biopsy for nonpalpable breast lesions compared to open-breast biopsyGROENEWOUD (J. H.)PIJNAPPEL (R. M.)VAN DEN AKKER-VAN MARIE (M. E.)BIRNIE (E.)BUIJS-VAN DER WOUDE (T.)MALI (W. P. T. H. M.)DE KONING (H. J.)BUSKENS (E.)Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, PO Box 17383000 DR RotterdamNLD1 aut.3 aut.4 aut.7 aut.Department of Radiology, Martini Ziekenhuis Groningen, PO Box 300339700 RM GroningenNLD2 aut.Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, PO Box 855003508 GA UtrechtNLD2 aut.5 aut.8 aut.Department of Radiology, University Medical Center Utrecht, PO Box 855003508 GA UtrechtNLD6 aut.383-3922004ENGINIST69253540001171957301900000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.25 ref.04-0432182PABritish journal of cancerGBRThis paper demonstrates that the introduction of large-core needle biopsy (LCNB) replacing needle-localised breast biopsy (NLBB) for nonpalpable (screen-detected) breast lesions could result in substantial cost savings at the expense of a possible slight increase in breast cancer mortality. The cost-effectiveness of LCNB and NLBB was estimated using a microsimulation model. The sensitivity of LCNB (0.97) and resource use and costs of LCNB and NLBB were derived from a multicentre consecutive cohort study among 973 women who consented in getting LCNB and NLBB, if LCNB was negative. Sensitivity analyses were performed. Replacing NLBB with LCNB would result in approximately six more breast cancer deaths per year (in a target population of 2.1 million women), or in 1000 extra life-years lost from breast cancer (effect over 100 years). The total costs of management of breast cancer (3% discounted) are estimated at £4676 million with NLBB; introducing LCNB would save £13 million. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of continued NLBB vs LCNB would be £12482 per additional life-year gained (3% discounted); incremental costs range from £-21687 (low threshold for breast biopsy) to £74 378 (high sensitivity of LCNB).002B04Stéréotaxie01Stereotaxia01Estereotaxia01Analyse coût efficacité02Cost efficiency analysis02Análisis costo eficacia02Economie santé03Health economy03Economía salud03Biopsie04Biopsy04Biopsia04Aiguille05Needle05Aguja05Glande mammaire06Mammary gland06Glándula mamaria06Radiographie07Radiography07Radiografía07Lésion08Lesion08Lesión08Dépistage09Medical screening09Descubrimiento09Tumeur maligne10Malignant tumor10Tumor maligno10Cancérologie11Cancerology11Cancerología11Radiodiagnostic37Radiodiagnosis37Radiodiagnóstico37Exploration38Exploration38Exploración38243OTOOTO 1149-159075Les aides publiques à la garde des jeunes enfants : Une analyse à partir des modèles de microsimulation MYRIADELEGENDRE (François)LORGNET (Jean-Paul)MAHIEU (Ronan)THIBAULT (Florence)5-20tabl.2004-03FREBDSP/ORSLRCOLLECTION880010 ref.04-0395188PARECHERCHES ET PREVISIONSFRALes parents d'enfants nés à partir du 1er janvier 2004 peuvent bénéficier d'une nouvelle prestation, la prestation d'accueil du jeune enfant (PAJE), dont la vocation est à la fois de mieux les solvabiliser s'ils optent pour une garde payante et de les soutenir financièrement s'ils réduisent leur activité professionnelle afin de s'occuper eux-mêmes de leurs enfants. Pour mieux rendre compte des effets budgétaires et redistributifs de cette nouvelle prestation, le modèle de microsimulation de la Caisse nationale des allocations familiales - MYRIADE-a été amendé. Il s'agissait de mieux décrire la situation antérieure à la réforme - en matière de modes de garde-afin de simuler plus précisément les effets potentiels de modifications de la réglementation dans ce domaine. En plus de la PAJE, deux réformes alternatives des prestations en vigueur en 2003 sont étudiées dans cet article. En fournissant des éléments comparatifs, leur analyse permet d'apprécier les options retenues dans le cadre de la nouvelle prestation002B30A07Aspect économiqueEconomic aspectAspecto económicoEvaluationEvaluationEvaluación229 0022-1899JIDIAQJ. infect. dis.1889Prospects for elimination of bancroftian filariasis by mass drug treatment in Pondicherry, India: A simulation studySTOLK (Wilma A.)SWAMINATHAN (Subramanian)VAN OORTMARSSEN (Gerrit J.)DAS (P. K.)HABBEMA (J. Dik F.)Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, University Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamNLD1 aut.3 aut.5 aut.Vector Control Research Centre, Indian Council of Medical Research, Indira Nagar, Medical ComplexPondicherryIND2 aut.4 aut.1371-13812003ENGINIST20523540001187838701500000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.52 ref.04-0334912PAThe Journal of infectious diseasesUSALYMFASIM, a microsimulation model for transmission and control of lymphatic filariasis, was used to simulate the effects of mass treatment, in order to estimate the number of treatment rounds necessary to achieve elimination. Simulations were performed for a community that represented Pondicherry, India, and that had an average precontrol microfilariae (MF) prevalence of 8.5%. When ivermectin was used, 8 yearly treatment rounds with 65% population coverage gave a 99% probability of elimination. The number of treatment rounds necessary to achieve elimination depended to a large extent on coverage, drug efficacy, and endemicity level. Changing the interval between treatment rounds mainly influenced the duration of control, not the number of treatment rounds necessary to achieve elimination. Results hardly changed with alternative assumptions regarding the type of immune mechanism. The potential impact of mass treatment with a combination of diethylcarbamazine and albendazole is shown under different assumptions regarding its efficacy. Human migration and drug resistance were not considered. Results cannot be directly generalized to areas with different vector or epidemiological characteristics. In conclusion, the prospects for elimination of bancroftian filariasis by mass treatment in Pondicherry seem good, provided that the level of population coverage is sufficiently high.002A05002B05Traitement05Treatment05Tratamiento05PondichéryNG06PondicherryNG06PondicheryNG06Simulation08Simulation08Simulación08Microbiologie09Microbiology09Microbiología09InfectionNM10InfectionNM10InfecciónNM10Filariose lymphatiqueNM14Lymphatic filariasisNM14Filariasis linfáticaNM14IndeNGIndiaNGIndiaNGAsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNGNématodoseNMNematode diseaseNMNematodosisNMHelminthiaseNMHelminthiasisNMHelmintiasisNMParasitoseNMParasitosisNMParasitosisNMLymphatique pathologie19Lymphatic vessel disease19Linfático patología19Appareil circulatoire pathologie20Cardiovascular disease20Aparato circulatorio patología20194OTOOTO 1167-468740Modéliser l'avenir des retraites dans un cadre macroéconomique bouclé : quelques mécanismes de baseLes retraites au futur : simulations et projectionsBLANCHET (D.)130-155tabl., graph., ann.2003-10FREBDSP/FNG16536, FNCOLL8800dissem.04-0270966PARETRAITE ET SOCIETEFRADans le cadre des réflexions menées sur les modalités envisageables de rééquilibrage des régimes de retraite du privé, cet article analyse les conséquences de l'introduction d'une dose de capitalisation obligatoire, accompagnée d'un allongement de la durée d'assurance requise pour avoir le taux plein selon le calendrier proposé par Charpin (1999). Les simulations sont effectuées à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation Destinie de l'INSEE. Les effets de cette réforme sur la masse des retraites et des cotisations et, au niveau individuel, sur la distribution des revenus de trois générations (1948-1959,1960-1967,1968-1975) sont successivement analysés. (tiré de l'introduction)002B30A11RetraiteRetirementJubilaciónHommeHumanHombreSalaireWageSalarioSecteur privéPrivate sectorSector privadoFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGActivité professionnelleProfessional activityActividad profesionalDuréeDurationDuraciónModèleModelsModeloEmployéEmployeeEmpleadoPopulation activeLabour forcePoblación activaActivitéActivityActividadEpargneSavingAhorroCompte renduReportInformePersonne âgéeElderlyAncianoCharges socialesSocial chargesCargas socialesFinancementFinancingFinanciaciónRelation intergénérationIntergeneration relationRelación intergeneracionalFemmeWomanMujerGénérationGenerationGeneraciónClassificationClassificationClasificaciónRevenu individuelPersonal incomeRenta personalProjection perspectivePerspective projectionProyección perspectivaHypothèseHypothesisHipótesisEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG173 1167-468740Retraites du secteur privé : quels effets de l'introduction d'une dose de capitalisation ?Les retraites au futur : simulations et projectionsBELHAJ (H.)106-125tabl., graph., ann.2003-10FREBDSP/FNG16535, FNCOLL8800dissem.04-0270965PARETRAITE ET SOCIETEFRADans le cadre des réflexions menées sur les modalités envisageables de rééquilibrage des régimes de retraite du privé, cet article analyse les conséquences de l'introduction d'une dose de capitalisation obligatoire, accompagnée d'un allongement de la durée d'assurance requise pour avoir le taux plein selon le calendrier proposé par Charpin (1999). Les simulations sont effectuées à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation Destinie de l'INSEE. Les effets de cette réforme sur la masse des retraites et des cotisations et, au niveau individuel, sur la distribution des revenus de trois générations (1948-1959,1960-1967,1968-1975) sont successivement analysés. (tiré de l'introduction)002B30A11RetraiteRetirementJubilaciónHommeHumanHombreSalaireWageSalarioSecteur privéPrivate sectorSector privadoFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGActivité professionnelleProfessional activityActividad profesionalDuréeDurationDuraciónModèleModelsModeloEmployéEmployeeEmpleadoPopulation activeLabour forcePoblación activaActivitéActivityActividadEpargneSavingAhorroCompte renduReportInformePersonne âgéeElderlyAncianoCharges socialesSocial chargesCargas socialesFinancementFinancingFinanciaciónRelation intergénérationIntergeneration relationRelación intergeneracionalFemmeWomanMujerGénérationGenerationGeneraciónClassificationClassificationClasificaciónRevenu individuelPersonal incomeRenta personalProjection perspectivePerspective projectionProyección perspectivaHypothèseHypothesisHipótesisEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG173 1167-468740Retraites des salariés du secteur privé en France : un modèle de microsimulationLes retraites au futur : simulations et projectionsPENNEC (S.)PRIVAT (A.G.)72-101tabl., graph.2003-10FREBDSP/FNG16534, FNCOLL8800dissem.04-0270964PARETRAITE ET SOCIETEFRACet article présente la première version du modèle de microsimulation de la Caisse nationale d'assurance vieillesse (Cnav). Ce modèle projette les retraites personnelles de base des salariés du secteur privé à l'horizon 2030. L'article se compose de quatre parties. Après avoir brièvement décrit les principes de la méthode de la microsimulation, en rappelant ses principaux avantages, l'article présente, dans une deuxième partie, la principale source de données sur laquelle repose la modèle. En effet, ce modèle s'appuie sur le fichier des assurés (cotisants et retraités) au régime général d'assurance vieillesse de la sécurité sociale qui est une source d'information très riche sur les carrières des assurés de la Cnav. Ensuite, les principaux éléments du modèle et son fonctionnement sont décrits dans la troisième partie. Dans la dernière partie, sont présentés des premiers résultats002B30A11RetraiteRetirementJubilaciónHommeHumanHombreSalaireWageSalarioSecteur privéPrivate sectorSector privadoFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGActivité professionnelleProfessional activityActividad profesionalDuréeDurationDuraciónModèleModelsModeloEmployéEmployeeEmpleadoPopulationPopulationPoblaciónSénescenceSenescenceSenescenciaCoûtCostsCosteFinancementFinancingFinanciaciónPopulation activeLabour forcePoblación activaHistoriqueCase historyEstudio históricoBanque donnéeDatabankBanco datoMortDeathMuerteMortalitéMortalityMortalidadActivitéActivityActividadFéconditéFecundityFecundidadFemmeWomanMujerGénérationGenerationGeneraciónAgeAgeEdadMéthodologieMethodologyMetodologíaRésultatResultResultadoEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG173 1167-468740Les retraites au futur : simulations et projectionsLEGROS (F.)4-155tabl., graph.2003-10FREBDSP/FNG16531, FNCOLL8800dissem.04-0270961PARETRAITE ET SOCIETEFRACe fascicule tente d'éclaircir des méthodes de modélisation des régimes de retraite et d'en montrer les enseignements comme les limites à travers des exemples de microsimulation. Ces modèles sont appliqués à différents domaines : étude de l'impact des aléas de carrière sur les retraites (inactivité, chômage, travail à temps partiel et préretraite) ; typologie des carrières des retraités de droit propre du régime général et établissement de profils-types ; retraites des salariés du secteur privé en France ; les effets de l'introduction d'une dose de capitalisation sur les retraites du secteur privé ; quelques mécanismes de base pour la modélisation de l'avenir des retraites dans un cadre macroéconomique002B30A11RetraiteRetirementJubilaciónPopulationPopulationPoblaciónSénescenceSenescenceSenescenciaActivité professionnelleProfessional activityActividad profesionalDuréeDurationDuraciónPopulation activeLabour forcePoblación activaChomageUnemploymentDesempleoEmploi temps partielPart time jobTrabajo tiempo parcialHommeHumanHombreSalaireWageSalarioSecteur privéPrivate sectorSector privadoFemmeWomanMujerEpargneSavingAhorroMacroéconomieMacroeconomicsMacroeconomíaClasse âgeAge distributionClase edadFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGProjection perspectivePerspective projectionProyección perspectivaModèleModelsModeloMéthodologieMethodologyMetodologíaClassificationClassificationClasificaciónHypothèseHypothesisHipótesisEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG173 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1855Simplex-based calibration of traffic microsimulation models with intelligent transportation systems dataTransportation data researchKIM (Kyu-Ok)RILETT (L. R.)Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University, 3136 TAMUCollege Station, TX 77843-3136USA1 aut.2 aut.80-892003ENGINIST10459B3540001165371501000000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.19 ref.04-0202790PATransportation research recordUSAIn recent years, microsimulation has become increasingly important in transportation system modeling. A potential issue is whether these models adequately represent reality and whether enough data exist with which to calibrate these models. There has been rapid deployment of intelligent transportation system (ITS) technologies in most urban areas of North America in the last 10 years. While ITSs are developed primarily for real-time traffic operations, the data are typically archived and available for traffic microsimulation calibration. A methodology, based on the sequential simplex algorithm, that uses ITS data to calibrate microsimulation models is presented. The test bed is a 23-km section of Interstate 10 in Houston, Texas. Two microsimulation models, CORSIM and TRANSIMS, were calibrated for two different demand matrices and three periods (morning peak, evening peak, and off-peak). It was found for the morning peak that the simplex algorithm had better results then either the default values or a simple, manual calibration. As the level of congestion decreased, the effectiveness of the simplex approach also decreased, as compared with standard techniques.001D15BSystème intelligent01Intelligent system01Sistema inteligente01Transports02Transportation02Transportes02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Etalonnage04Calibration04Contraste04Algorithme05Algorithm05Algoritmo05Ecoulement trafic06Traffic flow06Flujo tráfico06Zone urbaine07Urban area07Zona urbana07TexasNG08TexasNG08TexasNG08Implémentation09Implementation09Implementación09Résultat10Result10Resultado10Etude comparative11Comparative study11Estudio comparativo11Modèle CORSIMINC72Modèle TRANSIMSINC73Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG138PSI 0928-7655Resour. energy econ.261Estimating the benefits of efficient water pricing in FranceGARCIA (Serge)REYNAUD (Arnaud)GEA-ENGREFMontpellierFRA1 aut.LEERNA-INRA, Université de Toulouse I, 21 allée de Brienne31000 ToulouseFRA2 aut.1-252004ENGINIST178353540001169584900100000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/404-0194104PAResource and energy economicsNLDThe purpose of this paper is to evaluate the pricing of French water utilities. An econometric model describing both water supply and demand is specified and estimated on utilities located in the Bordeaux area. Based on the estimated technology and demand parameters, we simulate marginal-cost pricing (first-best pricing) and social surplus variations. We find a significant difference between observed marginal prices and marginal costs. We show that the optimal pricing scheme is characterized, first by higher marginal prices and second by a lower fixed charge. However, moving towards efficient prices does not result in important direct welfare effects.001D14J03001D14B295Approvisionnement eau01Water supply01Alimentación agua01Réseau adduction eau02Water supply system network02Red aducción agua02Fixation prix03Pricing03Fijación precios03FranceNG04FranceNG04FranciaNG04Analyse avantage coût05Cost benefit analysis05Análisis coste beneficio05Modèle économétrique06Econometric model06Modelo econométrico06Demande07Demand07Petición07Simulation numérique08Numerical simulation08Simulación numérica08Bien être économique09Welfare09Bienestar económico09Echelon municipal10Municipal scope10Escalón municipal10Inefficacité11Inefficiency11Ineficacia11Fonction coût12Cost function12Función coste12Analyse coût efficacité13Cost efficiency analysis13Análisis costo eficacia13Statistique descriptive14Descriptive statistics14Estadística descriptiva14EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG131PSI 0315-1468CJCEB8Can. j. civ. eng. : (Print)306Assessment of streetcar transit priority options using microsimulation modelling : Special Issue on Inovations in Trasportation EngineeringSHALABY (Amer)ABDULHAI (Baher)JINWOO LEEIntelligent Transportation Systems Centre and Testbed, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George, StreetToronto, ON M5S 1A4CAN1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.1000-10092003ENGfreINIST167483540001191626000500000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3 ref.04-0141007PACanadian journal of civil engineering : (Print)CANNuméro spécial consacré aux innovations dans l'ingénierie des transportsL'orientation d'une vision du transport public de Toronto, récemment publiée, porte principalement sur la réduction de la dépendance vis à vis l'automobile par l'utilisation d'une variété de stratégies interdépendantes, incluant l'application étendue de politiques de priorité de passage afin d'améliorer la compétitivité du service de transport public. Cet article quantifie les impacts de plusieurs schémas de priorité de passage en utilisant comme étude de cas le tramway le long de la rue King, au coeur de Toronto. Quatre scénarios ont été modélisés dans le cadre d'une microsimulation. Ils comprennent le statu quo (impliquant un signal de priorité de passage sans condition, déjà en opération), arrêter les signaux de priorité de passage existants, interdire tous les virages à gauche et enfin interdire toute circulation sur la rue King. Afin de quantifier les impacts de chacun de ces scénarios, un ensemble de mesures communes d'efficacité a été utilisé; celui-ci comprenait le temps et la vitesse des véhicules de transport public, l'intervalle efficace, la fréquence du service aux usagers et le nombre de personnes, le regroupement (bunching), les implications de la taille de la flotte, ainsi que les vitesses moyennes globales de la circulation et des véhicules du transport public. Les résultats montrent les mérites relatifs des quatre scénarios et recommande deux stratégies pour améliorer le service de tramway le long du parcours King. La première recommandation est d'interdire tous les virages à gauche le long du parcours alors que la seconde, qu'il faut reconnaître plus audacieuse, est de transformer possiblement cette artère en une rue réservée uniquement aux piétons et aux tramways.001D15B001D15DTransport public01Public transportation01Transporte público01Priorité02Priority02Prioridad02Tramway03Tramway03Tranvía03OntarioNG04OntarioNG04OntarioNG04Régulation trafic05Traffic control05Regulación tráfico05Feu signalisation06Traffic lights06Semáforo06Intersection07Intersection07Intersección07Simulation numérique08Numerical simulation08Simulación numérica08Modèle microscopique09Microscopic model09Modelo microscópico09Scénario10Script10Argumento10Etalonnage11Calibration11Contraste11Demande transport12Transport demand12Demanda transporte12Dynamique véhicule13Vehicle dynamics13Dinámica vehículo13Evaluation performance14Performance evaluation14Evaluación prestación14TorontoNGINC72CanadaNGCanadaNGCanadáNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG089PSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1831Prototype model of household activity-travel schedulingTravel demand and land use 2003MILLER (Eric J.)ROORDA (Matthew J.)Department of Civil Engineering, Joint Program in Transportation, University of Toronto, 35 St. George StreetToronto, Ontario M5S 1A4CAN1 aut.2 aut.114-1212003ENGINIST10459B3540001190831701300000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.04-0118382PATransportation research recordUSAThe Toronto Area Scheduling Model for Household Agents (TASHA), a new prototype activity scheduling microsimulation model, generates activity schedules and travel patterns for a 24-h typical weekday for all persons in a household. The prototype model is based solely on conventional trip diary data and therefore is applicable in many urban areas where activity data may not be available. The model makes use of the concept of the project, a &dquot;container&dquot; of activities with a common goal, to organize activity episodes into the schedules of persons in a household. A heuristic, or rule-based, method is used to organize activities into projects and then to form schedules for interacting household members. The TASHA model is considered to be a successful first attempt to operationalize a generalized conceptual model of household decision making, with reasonable correspondence between model and observed trip rates and chain characteristics.001D15BTransport urbain01Urban transportation01Transporte urbano01Ordonnancement02Scheduling02Reglamento02Activité03Activity03Actividad03Simulation numérique04Numerical simulation04Simulación numérica04Prototype05Prototype05Prototipo05OntarioNG06OntarioNG06OntarioNG06Modèle microscopique07Microscopic model07Modelo microscópico07Ménage08Household08Familia08Vérification09Verification09Verificación09TorontoNGINC72CanadaNGCanadaNGCanadáNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG075PSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1831Dynamic modeling of household automobile transactionsTravel demand and land use 2003MOHAMMADIAN (Abolfazl)MILLER (Eric J.)Department of Civil Engineering, California State University, Sacramento, 6000 J StreetSacramento, CA 95819-6029USA1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George StreetToronto, Ontario M5S 1A4CAN2 aut.98-1052003ENGINIST10459B3540001190831701100000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.24 ref.04-0118001PATransportation research recordUSAAutomobiles play a pivotal role in daily life, which makes them a subject of interest in many academic fields. Transportation planners are interested in knowing how many and what types of automobiles are owned by households, how people adjust their fleet, and how they use their vehicles. The primary objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive dynamic model of household automobile transactions at a disaggregate level to be used in a dynamic microsimulation modeling framework that can provide a direct forecast of consumer demand for personal-use vehicles. A market-based decision-making process and a transaction approach were applied for this project because of their consistency with the actual processes followed by decision makers. In the proposed framework, each year a decision maker faces four choices: add a new vehicle to the fleet, dispose of one vehicle, trade one of the vehicles in the fleet, or do nothing. A mixed (random parameters) logit model was used to investigate the effects of heterogeneity in the dynamic transaction model and distinguish between heterogeneity- and state-dependence-based explanations for the observed persistence in choice behavior. In this study, the application of dynamic variables representing the occurrence of changes in household state and their impacts on the observed behavior were also investigated.001D15C001D15BTransport routier01Road transportation01Transporte por carretera01Economie transport02Economy of transports02Economía transporte02Simulation numérique03Numerical simulation03Simulación numérica03Modèle dynamique04Dynamic model04Modelo dinámico04Ménage05Household05Familia05Flotte06Fleet06Acquisition07Acquisition07Adquisición07Echange commercial08Trade08Intercambio comercial08Prise décision09Decision making09Toma decision09Automobile10Motor car10Automóvil10Modèle microscopique11Microscopic model11Modelo microscópico11Arbre décision12Decision tree12Arbol decisión12Modèle logit13Logit model13Modelo logit13Estimation paramètre14Parameter estimation14Estimación parámetro14Véhicule neufCD96New vehicleCD96Vehìculo nuevoCD96075PSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1831Systematic investigation of variability due to random simulation error in an activity-based microsimulation forecasting modelTravel demand and land use 2003CASTIGLIONE (Joe)FREEDMAN (Joel)BRADLEY (Mark)San Francisco County Transportation Authority, 100 Van Ness Avenue, 25th FloorSan Francisco, CA 94102USA1 aut.Systems Analysis Group, PBConsult, 400 Southwest Sixth Avenue, Suite 802Portland, OR 97204USA2 aut.Mark Bradley Research & Consulting, 129 Natoma Avenue, Apartment CSanta Barbara, CA 93101USA3 aut.76-882003ENGINIST10459B3540001190831700900000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.4 ref.04-0117425PATransportation research recordUSAA key difference between stochastic microsimulation models and more traditional forms of travel demand forecasting models is that micro-simulation-based forecasts change each time the sequence of random numbers used to simulate choices is varied. To address practitioners' concerns about this variation, a common approach is to run the microsimulation model several times and average the results. The question then becomes: What is the minimum number of runs required to reach a true average state for a given set of model results? This issue was investigated by means of a systematic experiment with the San Francisco model, a microsimulation model system used in actual planning applications since 2000. The system contains models of vehicle availability, day pattern choice, tour time-of-day choice, destination choice, and mode choice. To investigate the variability of the forecasts of this system due to random simulation error, the model system was run 100 times, each time changing only the sequence of random numbers used to simulate individual choices from the logit model probabilities. The extent of random variability in the model results is reported as a function of two factors: (a) the type of model (vehicle availability, tour generation, destination choice, or mode choice) ; and (b) the level of geographic detail-transit at the analysis zone level, neighborhood level, or countywide level. For each combination of these factors, it is shown graphically how quickly the mean values of key output variables converge toward a stable value as the number of simulation runs increases.001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Simulation numérique02Numerical simulation02Simulación numérica02Modèle stochastique03Stochastic model03Modelo estocástico03Modèle microscopique04Microscopic model04Modelo microscópico04Activité05Activity05Actividad05Erreur calcul06Computation error06Error cálculo06Itinéraire07Route07Itinerario07Modèle origine destination08Origin destination model08Modelo origen destinación08Critère décision09Decision criterion09Criterio decisión09Choix modal10Modal choice10Elección modal10Statistique descriptive11Descriptive statistics11Estadística descriptiva11Quartier voisinage12Neighbourhood12Barrio vecindad12San FranciscoNGINC72075PSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1831Continuous time representation and modeling framework for analysis of nonworker activity-travel patterns: Tour and episode attributesTravel demand and land use 2003MISRA (Rajul)BHAT (Chandra R.)SRINIVASAN (Sivaramakrishnan)United Technologies Research Center, 411 Silver Lane, MS 129-85East Hartford, CT 06108USA1 aut.University of Texas at Austin, Department of Civil Engineering, 1 University Station C1761Austin, TX 78712-0278USA2 aut.3 aut.11-202003ENGINIST10459B3540001190831700200000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.17 ref.04-0115648PATransportation research recordUSAA set of four econometric models is presented to examine the tour and episode-related attributes (specifically, mode choice, activity duration, travel times, and location choice) of the activity-travel patterns of nonworkers, as a sequel to an earlier work by Bhat and Misra (2001), which presented a comprehensive continuous-time framework for representation and analysis of the activity-travel choices of nonworkers. Detailed descriptions of the first two components of the modeling framework related to the number and sequence of activity episodes are also presented. The proposed models using activity-travel data from the 1990 San Francisco Bay Area travel diary survey are estimated.001D15B001D15ATransport voyageur01Passenger transportation01Transporte pasajero01Activité02Activity02Actividad02Simulation numérique03Numerical simulation03Simulación numérica03Analyse temporelle04Time analysis04Análisis temporal04Itinéraire05Route05Itinerario05Analyse comportementale06Behavioral analysis06Análisis conductual06Modèle économétrique07Econometric model07Modelo econométrico07Durée trajet08Travel time08Duración trayecto08Formule mathématique09Mathematical formula09Fórmula matemática09Choix modal10Modal choice10Elección modal10Localisation11Localization11Localización11075PSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1841Data challenges in development of a regional assignment: Simulation model to evaluate transit signal priority in ChicagoTransit: Bus, paratransit, rural public and intercity bus, new transportation systems and technology, capacity and quality of serviceCHANG (Elaine)ZILIASKOPOULOS (Athanasios)Department of Civil Engineering, Northwestern University, 2145 Sheridan RoadEvanston, IL 60208-3109USA1 aut.2 aut.12-222003ENGINIST10459B3540001190463900200000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.15 ref.04-0111447PATransportation research recordUSARecent years have seen major advances in the field of simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment (DTA), resulting in the development of DTA software packages capable of simulating real-world networks. However, simulation of such networks requires not only sophisticated algorithms and software, but also large and detailed data sets. Although algorithmic and software-related issues in large-scale DTA development have received considerable research attention, there is little reported experience with the data-related challenges in real-world applications of large-scale simulation models. There were challenges in using a large-scale simulation-assignment model for evaluation of transit signal priority (TSP) in the Chicago, Illinois, region. Relevant impacts of TSP are described, to provide a framework for comparing simulation approaches and data sets. The practice of using microsimulation models to evaluate TSP impacts on short corridors is compared with that of using regional assignment-simulation approaches, with an emphasis on TSP impacts that can be captured and observed with each one of the approaches. The data sets used for the regional Chicago TSP study are then described, along with assumptions made to adapt each data set to the task of regional time-dependent simulation.001D15BTransport public01Public transportation01Transporte público01Transport régional02Regional transportation02Transporte regional02Affectation trafic03Traffic assignment03Afectación tráfico03Simulation numérique04Numerical simulation04Simulación numérica04Signalisation routière05Road signalling05Señalización tráfico05Modèle dynamique06Dynamic model06Modelo dinámico06Outil logiciel07Software tool07Herramienta software07Implémentation08Implementation08Implementación08Traitement donnée09Data processing09Tratamiento datos09IllinoisNG10IllinoisNG10IlinoisNG10Réseau transport11Transportation network11Red transporte11ChicagoNGINC72Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG075PSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1842Induced travel and emissions from traffic flow improvement projectsEnergy, air quality, and fuels 2003STATHOPOULOS (Fotis G.)NOLAND (Robert B.)Psaron 68 str. Halandri, 15232 AthensGRC1 aut.Centre for Transport Studies, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College of Science, Technology and MedicineLondon SW7 2BUGBR2 aut.57-632003ENGINIST10459B3540001190457100700000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.23 ref.04-0111029PATransportation research recordUSATwo scenarios for improving traffic flow are simulated and analyzed using the VISSIM microsimulation model and the Comprehensive Modal Emissions Model. Short-run and long-run emissions of CO, HC, NO_x, and CO₂ and fuel consumption are estimated. In the short run, with traffic volumes held constant, results demonstrate that the smoothing of traffic flow will result in reduced emissions. Long-run emissions are simulated by synthetically generating new trips into the simulated networks to represent potential induced travel. This is done until a &dquot;break-even&dquot; level of emissions for each pollutant and fuel consumption is reached that is equivalent to the base level before the traffic flow improvement was added. By also calculating short-run changes in travel time from the improvement, the travel time elasticity equivalents for each pollutant are calculated. These values are compared with travel time elasticities in the literature to evaluate whether long-run emissions benefits are likely to endure. Simulations are conducted using different assumptions of vehicle soak time to simulate cold-start and hot-stabilized operating modes. Results indicate that, in most cases, long-run emissions reductions are unlikely to be achieved under the two scenarios evaluated.001D15C001D16C04CTransport routier01Road transportation01Transporte por carretera01Emission polluant02Pollutant emission02Emisión contaminante02Ecoulement trafic03Traffic flow03Flujo tráfico03Consommation combustible04Fuel consumption04Consumo combustible04Simulation numérique05Numerical simulation05Simulación numérica05Scénario06Script06Argumento06Modèle microscopique07Microscopic model07Modelo microscópico07Durée trajet08Travel time08Duración trayecto08Elasticité09Elasticity09Elasticidad09VISSIMINC72075PSI 0198-9715CEUSD5Comput., environ. urban syst.281-2Microsimulating urban systemsGeosimulationMILLER (Eric J.)HUNT (John Douglas)ABRAHAM (John E.)SALVINI (Paul A.)BENENSON (Itzhak)ed.TORRENS (Paul M.)ed.Joint Program in Transportation, University of Toronto, 35 St. George StreetToronto, Ontario M5S 1A4CAN1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NWCalgary, Alberta T2N 1N4CAN2 aut.3 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George StreetToronto, Ontario M5S IA4CAN4 aut.University of Tel Aviv, Department of Geography and Human Environment and Environment Simulation LaboratoryTel AvivISR1 aut.University of Utah, Department of Geography, 260 S. Campus Centre Dr., Room 270Salt Lake City, UT 84112-9155USA2 aut.9-442004ENGINIST201923540001158588300100000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.4 p.04-0094665PAComputers, environment and urban systemsGBRThis paper presents a status report concerning on-going research and development work by a team of Canadian researchers to develop a microsimulation, agent-based, integrated model of urban land use and transportation. It describes in some detail the overall design and current status of the ILUTE (Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment) modelling system under development. The overall purpose of ILUTE is to simulate the evolution of an entire urban region over an extended period of time. Such a model is intended to replace conventional, aggregate, static models for the analysis of a broad range of transportation, housing and other urban policies. Agents being simulated in the model include individuals, households and establishments. The model operates on a &dquot;100% sample&dquot; (i.e., the entire population) of agents which, in the base case, are synthesized from more aggregate data such as census tables and which are then evolved over time by the model. A range of modelling methods are employed within the modelling system to represent individual agents' behaviours, including simple state transition models, random utility choice models, rule-based &dquot;computational process&dquot; models, and hybrids of these approaches. A major emphasis within ILUTE is the development of microsimulation models of market demand-supply interactions, particularly within the residential and commercial real estate markets. In addition, travel demand is modelled explicitly as the outcome of a combination of household and individual decisions concerning the participation in out-of-home activities over the course of a day. Spatial entities in the model include buildings, residential dwelling units and commercial floorspace, as well as aggregate &dquot;spatial containers&dquot; such as traffic zones, census tracts or grid cells.001D14A06001D14C03001D15A295Urbanisme01Town planning01Urbanismo01Occupation sol02Land use02Ocupación terreno02Simulation numérique03Numerical simulation03Simulación numérica03Modèle microscopique04Microscopic model04Modelo microscópico04Agent05Agent05Agente05Développement urbain06Urban development06Desarrollo urbano06Transports07Transportation07Transportes07Choix site08Site selection08Elección sitio08Localisation09Localization09Localización09Activité10Activity10Actividad10Analyse comportementale11Behavioral analysis11Análisis conductual11Situation emploi12Employment situation12Situación laboral12Modèle désagrégé13Disaggregate demand model13Modelo desagregado13Analyse spatiale14Spatial analysis14Análisis espacial14Analyse temporelle15Time analysis15Análisis temporal15ILUTEINC72Grand ensembleCD96Large housing estateCD96Gran centro de viviendaCD96061PSI 0028-4793NEJMAGN. Engl. j. med.34911Health, life expectancy, and health care spending among the elderlyLUBITZ (James)LIMING CAIKRAMAROW (Ellen)LENTZNER (Harold)Office of Analysis, Epidemiology, and Health Promotion, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and PreventionHyattsville, MdUSA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.1048-10552003ENGINIST60133540001128421400700000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.33 ref.04-0049814PAThe New England journal of medicineUSABACKGROUND Life expectancy among the elderly has been improving for many decades, and there is evidence that health among the elderly is also improving. We estimated the relation of health status at 70 years of age to life expectancy and to cumulative health care expenditures from the age of 70 until death. METHODS Using the 1992-1998 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, we classified persons' health according to functional status and whether or not they were institutionalized and according to self-reported health. We used multistate life-table methods and microsimulation to estimate life expectancy for persons in various states of health. We linked annual health care expenditures with transitions between health states. RESULTS Elderly persons in better health had a longer life expectancy than those in poorer health but had similar cumulative health care expenditures until death. A person with no functional limitation at 70 years of age had a life expectancy of 14.3 years and expected cumulative health care expenditures of about $136,000 (in 1998 dollars); a person with a limitation in at least one activity of daily living had a life expectancy of 11.6 years and expected cumulative expenditures of about $145,000. Expenditures varied little according to self-reported health at the age of 70. Persons who were institutionalized at the age of 70 had cumulative expenditures that were much higher than those for persons who were not institutionalized. CONCLUSIONS The expected cumulative health expenditures for healthier elderly persons, despite their greater longevity, were similar to those for less healthy persons. Health-promotion efforts aimed at persons under 65 years of age may improve the health and longevity of the elderly without increasing health expenditures.002B30A01BEspérance vie01Life expectancy01Esperanza de vida01Qualité vie02Quality of life02Calidad vida02Etats UnisNG16United StatesNG16Estados UnidosNG16Epidémiologie17Epidemiology17Epidemiología17Santé publique18Public health18Salud pública18Personne âgée20Elderly20Anciano20Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNGHommeHumanHombre033PSI 0041-0683TENCA4Traffic eng. control449Using micro-simulation modelling to appraise a major transport schemeTENEKECI (Goktug)FRY (Graham)Mott MacDonaldINC1 aut.Walsall MBCINC2 aut.337-3412003ENGINIST137293540001148080400500000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.4 ref.04-0042452PATraffic engineering & controlGBRIn July 2002 Walsall Metropolitan Borough Council produced an Annex E submission to the Department for Transport for funding of a major transport: scheme, the Walsall Town Centre Transport Package (TCTP). A VISSIM microsimulation model was developed to assess the performance of the existing network and to test the potential impact of the proposed scheme in the local network context. The application of VISSIM for a major local transport scheme produced the opportunity to assess the implementation of bus gates within the town centre, use of Vehicle Actuated Programming for signal controlled junctions and to assess impacts of pedestrian crossings and accessibility, which conventional packages would not detail at a micro level. The assessment of results led to the refinement of the transport elements at micro level and at macro travel an evaluation of economic, environmental, safety and accessibility assessment indices for NATA assessment.001D15B001D15C001D14O01295Politique transport01Transportation policy01Política transporte01Trafic routier urbain02Urban road traffic02Tráfico vial urbano02Royaume UniNG03United KingdomNG03Reino UnidoNG03Modélisation04Modeling04Modelización04Simulation numérique05Numerical simulation05Simulación numérica05Evaluation performance06Performance evaluation06Evaluación prestación06Réseau routier07Road network07Red carretera07Boulevard périphérique08Ring road08Camino periférico08Demande transport09Transport demand09Demanda transporte09Gestion trafic10Traffic management10Gestión tráfico10Aspect économique11Economic aspect11Aspecto económico11Accessibilité12Accessibility12Accesibilidad12Sécurité trafic13Traffic safety13Seguridad tráfico13Evaluation projet14Project evaluation14Evaluación proyecto14Transport public15Public transportation15Transporte público15Signalisation commandée par véhiculeCD96Vehicle actuated signalCD96EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG026PSI 1296-2120Doss. solidar. santé3Les aides aux familles ayant de jeunes enfants : bilan de l'existant et première évaluation des réformes décidées en 2003 avec la Prestation d'accueil du jeune enfant (Paje)La microsimulation des politiques de transferts sociaux et fiscaux à la DREES : objectifs, outils et principales études et évaluationsCAUSSAT (Laurent)LE MINEZ (Sylvie)PUCCI (Muriel)CAUSSAT (Laurent)introd.Ministère des Affaires sociales, du travail et de la solidaritéFRAMinistère de la Santé, de la famille et des personnes handicapéesFRADREESFRADirection de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiquesParisFRA1 aut.67-922003FREINIST264653540001162116700400000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.521-04-15179PADossiers solidarité et santéFRAWelfare to families with young children : balance and first assessment of 2003 reforms with the example of Young children allowancesMicrosimulation of social and fiscal transfer policies at the DREES: goals, tools and main studies and assessments16 notesCe chapitre présente un bilan redistributif détaillé des aides à la petite enfance telles qu'elles opéraient avant leur réforme en 2004, puis une première évaluation prospective de la Prestation d'accueil du jeune enfant (Paje), décidée lors de la dernière Conférence de la famille. Les exploitations s'appuient sur le modèle de microsimulation Ines, enrichi à cette occasion de l'imputation des aides à la garde d'enfants. Malgré un faible ciblage sur les bas revenus, les aides à la petite enfance, très généreuses relativement aux autres aides à la famille, contribuent fortement à réduire les inégalités de niveau de vie parmi les familles ayant à charge des enfants âgés de moins de trois ans. La situation est cependant contrastée selon les aides. Avant réforme, le recours aux différents modes de garde est nettement différencié selon le niveau de ressources des parents. Les efforts financiers consentis à l'occasion de la mise en place de la Paje en 2004 conduisent à diminuer sensiblement le coût des modes de garde, et plus généralement, à accroître le nombre de familles bénéficiaires et la générosité des aides à la petite enfance. La création du Complément mode de garde a pour objectif d'ouvrir l'accès aux modes de garde individuels à un plus grand nombre de familles et on peut penser que des familles aux revenus modestes seront concernées par ce volet de la réforme. Cependant, sous l'hypothèse que les comportements en matière d'activité et de recours aux modes de garde demeurent les mêmes, la réforme apparaît favoriser les revenus moyens et élevés, et au total n'améliore pas le bilan redistributif des aides à la petite enfance52164XVI521FranceNG01FranceNG01Politique sociale02Social Policy02Prestation familiale03Family benefit03Enfant04Child04Redistribution des revenus05Income Redistribution05Evaluation06Evaluation06Modèle statistique07Statistical Model07Simulation08Simulation08334PSIPSI 1296-2120Doss. solidar. santé3Analyse des coûts budgétaires, des effets redistributifs et incitatifs des politiques sociales et fiscales affectant le revenu disponible des ménages : L'apport des modèles de microsimulationLa microsimulation des politiques de transferts sociaux et fiscaux à la DREES : objectifs, outils et principales études et évaluationsCHAMBAZ (Christine)LE MINEZ (Sylvie)CAUSSAT (Laurent)introd.Ministère des Affaires sociales, du travail et de la solidaritéFRAMinistère de la Santé, de la famille et des personnes handicapéesFRADREESFRADirection de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiquesParisFRA1 aut.9-142003FREINIST264653540001162116700100000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3 p.1/2521-04-15173PADossiers solidarité et santéFRAAnalysis of budgetary costs, of redistributive and incentive effects of social and fiscal policies on households incomes : the contribution of microsimulation modelMicrosimulation of social and fiscal transfer policies at the DREES: goals, tools and main studies and assessments19 notesLes modèles de microsimulation sont d'un usage de plus en plus répandu dans les administrations publiques. Ils permettent des évaluations ex ante (ou a priori) des politiques sociales et fiscales affectant le revenu des ménages et sont particulièrement sollicités lorsqu'il s'agit de mettre en oeuvre des réformes de ces politiques. Leur champ d'application est large, s'étendant de l'analyse des coûts budgétaires des politiques, à celle de leurs effets redistributifs et de leurs effets incitatifs. Le système socio-fiscal opère en effet une redistribution des revenus entre les ménages, dont il s'agit d'apprécier les mécanismes et l'ampleur, et le modifier peut entraîner des changements de comportements des individus en matière d'offre de travail, de fécondité, de consommation etc. Ce chapitre présente les différentes options qui peuvent être envisagées lors de l'élaboration d'un modèle de microsimulation, s'appuyant sur des données individuelles représentatives : modèle statique ou dynamique, avec ou sans modélisation des comportements des agents en réaction aux modifications des législations, avec ou sans bouclage macroéconomique. Les usages qui en sont faits, notamment au sein des administrations, sont détaillés, l'accent étant mis sur le caractère prospectif et l'horizon des évaluations.52164XVI52146AXII5218I521Politique fiscale01Fiscal Policy01Politique sociale02Social Policy02Redistribution des revenus03Income Redistribution03Evaluation04Evaluation04Coût05Cost05Simulation06Simulation06Modèle statistique07Statistical Model07Comptabilité08Accounting08FranceNG09FranceNG09IncitationNIINC31334PSIPSI 1296-2120Doss. solidar. santé3L'impact redistributif des réformes socio-fiscales récentes sur les bas revenus : l'exemple de la Prime pour l'emploiLa microsimulation des politiques de transferts sociaux et fiscaux à la DREES : objectifs, outils et principales études et évaluationsCOURTIOUX (Pierre)LAPINTE (Aude)CAUSSAT (Laurent)introd.Ministère des Affaires sociales, du travail et de la solidaritéFRAMinistère de la Santé, de la famille et des personnes handicapéesFRADREESFRADirection de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiquesParisFRA1 aut.45-662003FREINIST264653540001162116700300000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.9 ref.521-04-15171PADossiers solidarité et santéFRAThe redistributive impact of recent social-fiscal reforms on low incomes : the example of employment bonusMicrosimulation of social and fiscal transfer policies at the DREES: goals, tools and main studies and assessments6 notesCe chapitre analyse l'impact redistributif de la Prime pour l'emploi, au regard d'autres dispositifs (les aides au logement et la taxe d'habitation) qui ont connu des réformes récentes. Par le jeu des différentes conditions d'éligibilité (condition d'activité individuelle, condition de revenu du foyer, extension d'éligibilité pour certaines configurations familiales), le dispositif cible surtout les ménages modestes, tout en écartant les ménages les plus pauvres. En effet, ces derniers remplissent plus rarement la condition d'activité minimale. Par ailleurs, les extensions d'éligibilité pour certaines configurations familiales bénéficient fortement aux parents isolés et aux ménages monoactifs à temps complet. De manière générale, et comparés notamment aux allocations logement, les montants distribués de la prime pour l'emploi contribuent faiblement au niveau de vie des ménages bénéficiaires. La part des majorations dans le montant de la prime est sensiblement la même pour les parents isolés et les couples mariés avec enfants. Toutefois, le montant moyen de la prime est supérieur pour les couples car le nombre d'enfant et le taux d'activité sont globalement plus élevés52164XVI52146AXII5218I521FranceNG01FranceNG01Politique sociale02Social Policy02Politique fiscale03Fiscal Policy03Prestation sociale04Social Allowance04Redistribution des revenus05Income Redistribution05Evaluation06Evaluation06Simulation07Simulation07Modèle statistique08Statistical Model08Emploi09Employment09Salarié10Wage-earner10Revenu11Income11Aide au logement12Housing benefit12Structure familiale13Family structure13334PSIPSI 1296-2120Doss. solidar. santé3Le modèle de microsimulation inés : un outil d'analyse des politiques socio-fiscalesLa microsimulation des politiques de transferts sociaux et fiscaux à la DREES : objectifs, outils et principales études et évaluationsALBOUY (Valérie)BOUTON (Francois)LE MINEZ (Sylvie)PUCCI (Muriel)CAUSSAT (Laurent)introd.Ministère del'Economie, des finances et de l'industrie - INSEEFRA1 aut.2 aut.Ministère des Affaires sociales, du travail et de la solidaritéFRA3 aut.4 aut.Ministère de la Santé, de la famille et des personnes handicapées - DREESFRA3 aut.4 aut.Direction de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiquesParisFRA1 aut.23-432003FREINIST264653540001162116700200000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.21 ref.521-04-15155PADossiers solidarité et santéFRAINES microsimulation model : a tool for the analysis of social and fiscal policiesMicrosimulation of social and fiscal transfer policies at the DREES: goals, tools and main studies and assessments21 notesDepuis mars 2000, la Drees s'est associée à l'Insee pour développer le modèle de microsimulation Ines afin de disposer d'un outil d'analyse ex ante des coûts budgétaires et des effets redistributifs des politiques socio-fiscales. Cet article a pour objectif dintroduire aux particularités de ce modèle et aux usages qui en sont faits à la Drees ou à l'Insee. La présentation d'Ines est organisée autour de trois axes. Il s'agit dans un premier temps de mettre l'accent sur la richesse des enquêtes Revenus fiscaux auxquelles le modèle est adossé et sur la manière dont ces bases sont projetées afin de répondre aux besoins d'analyse des législations les plus récentes : la version d'Ines présentée ici s'appuie ainsi sur l'enquête Revenus fiscaux de 1999 actualisée de sorte à analyser la législation de l'année 2002. Un deuxième temps dela présentation est consacré l'architecture du modèle Ines et aux options quiont été retenues pour imputer au mieux, à partir des règles d'éligibilité etdes barèmes en vigueuren 2002, les prélèvements et les prestations monétaires affectant le revenu initial des ménages, et permettant d'estimer leur revenu disponible en 2002. Le voile est levé sur quelques règles d'imputation : dans certains cas, faute d'informations suffisantes, les simulateurs doivent en effet procéderà des hypothèses pour sélectionner les éligibles. Afin d'apprécier la qualité des imputations réalisées dans Ines, les masses financières et les effectifs des bénéficiaires ou des redevables des différents transferts sont confrontés aux sources officielles. Ce troisième temps de la présentation est également l'occasion de présenter des méthodes d'analyse des effets redistributifs couramment mobilisées dans Ines. À l'issue de cette présentation proprement dite du modèle, une brève section donne un aperçu de la diversité des travaux réalisés à l'aide d'Ines52164XVI52146AXII5218I521Politique fiscale01Fiscal Policy01Politique sociale02Social Policy02Coût03Cost03Evaluation04Evaluation04Simulation05Simulation05Modèle statistique06Statistical Model06Revenu07Income07Comptabilité08Accounting08Prestation sociale09Social Allowance09Redistribution des revenus10Income Redistribution10FranceNG11FranceNG11334PSIPSI 1296-2120Doss. solidar. santé3La microsimulation des politiques de transferts sociaux et fiscaux à la DREES : objectifs, outils et principales études et évaluationsCAUSSAT (Laurent)introd.Direction de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiquesParisFRA1 aut.2003FRE92 p.INIST264653540001162116700000000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.dissem.521-04-15138PMDossiers solidarité et santéFRAMicrosimulation of social and fiscal transfer policies at the DREES: goals, tools and main studies and assessmentsCe numéro présente une évaluation des effets redistributifs de réformes de politique fiscale et sociale récentes en France, à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation INES. Après que les aspects méthodologiques de ce modèle aient été présentés, les mesures sociales étudiées sont la Prime pour l'emploi et la Prestation d'accueil du jeune enfant (PAJE)52164XVI52146AXII5218I521FranceNG01FranceNG01Politique fiscale02Fiscal Policy02Politique sociale03Social Policy03Prestation sociale04Social Allowance04Prestation familiale05Family benefit05Redistribution des revenus06Income Redistribution06Emploi07Employment07Evaluation08Evaluation08Simulation09Simulation09Modèle statistique10Statistical Model10334PSIPSI 0336-1454Econ. stat366La redistribution intragénérationnelle dans le système de retraite des salariés du privé : une approche par microsimulation. CommentaireWALRAET (Emmanuelle)VINCENT (Alexandre)DUPUIS (Jean-Marc)comment.EL MOUDDEN (Claire)comment.Division Redistribution et politiques sociales du département des Études économiques d'ensemble de l'InseeFRA1 aut.DELTA (UMR ENS-CNRS-EHESS)FRA2 aut.Gemma-Université de CaenFRA3 aut.4 aut.31-61, 119, 121, 123, 125 [352003FREenggerspaINIST242283540001161275200200000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.dissem.521-04-14676PARCTAEconomie et statistiqueFRAIntragenerational redistribution and the private-sector employees' pension scheme: A microsimulation approach. CommentaryL'impact redistributif du système de retraite français des salariés du privé est analysé ici, pour les générations nées dans les années 1950, avant la réforme intervenue en 2003. Les transferts redistributifs sont évalués en se fondant sur la comparaison des taux de rendement interne. La redistribution intragénérationnelle peut s'apprécier selon deux dimensions: une dimension verticale, en fonction du salaire; une dimension horizontale, essentiellement liée au nombre d'enfants. Afin de neutraliser les transferts induits par le système de retraite entre membres d'un même ménage (surtout de l'homme vers la femme), la redistribution est envisagée au niveau des individus mais aussi des couples. L'analyse est menée à partir de l'Enquête Patrimoine 1998, complétée au moyen du modèle de microsimulation dynamique Destinie. Entre individus, la redistribution est manifeste : les femmes, et particulièrement celles qui disposent des plus bas salaires, en sont les principales bénéficiaires. Parmi les couples, la redistribution est encore nette, dirigée essentiellement vers ceux dont les salaires sont les plus faibles. Une grande part de cette redistribution verticale est imputable au minimum contributif. Les transferts vers les couples ayant élevé plus d'enfants sont très nets et sont largement dus aux avantages familiaux de durée d'assurance. Par ailleurs, les transferts anti-redistributifs dus aux différentiels de mortalité restent de faible ampleur. Ils se concentrent dans la population masculine mais ne conduisent pas globalement à des transferts anti-redistributifs au sein des hommes. Ils n'affectent pas la redistribution entre couples52142AXII521FranceNG01FranceNG01Régime de retraite02Retirement Plan02Redistribution des revenus03Income Redistribution03Génération04Generation04Salaire05Salary05Carrière professionnelle06Professional career06Modèle statistique07Statistical Model07Simulation08Simulation08Secteur privé09Private Entreprise09Taille de la famille10Family Size10Cycle de vie11Life Cycle11Couple12Couple12Différence selon le sexe13Gender difference13Rendement14Productiveness14Espérance de vie15Life Expectancy15Taux de remplacementNIINC31306PSIPSI 1079-5014J. gerontol., Ser. B Psychol. sci. soc. sci.586Poverty among elderly women: Assessing SSI options to strengthen social security reformRUPP (Kalman)STRAND (Alexander)DAVIES (Paul S.)Social Security Administration, Office of Policy, Office of Research, Evaluation, and StatisticsWashington, DCUSA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.S359-S3682003ENGINIST4125B3540001188503600900000© 2004 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.16 ref.521-04-10762PAThe Journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciencesUSAPauvreté parmi les femmes âgées : évaluation des options des allocations sociales supplémentaires pour promouvoir la réforme de la sécurité socialeObjectives. We explore the potential of the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program to reduce poverty among elderly women. We develop a methodological framework that compares how well various reform proposals are targeted to reducing poverty among elderly women. Methods. Using a microsimulation model and survey data matched to SSI administrative records, we model the effects of eight alternative policies on current and potential SSI recipients. We develop an evaluation methodology that systematically compares poverty outcomes, using multiple measures of effectiveness, at given levels of program expansion. Results. All but two of the SSI reforms are clearly more target efficient at various degrees of simulated program expansion than popular proposals to reform Social Security. For a given cost increase, modifying the SSI asset test is the most effective option for reducing severe poverty among elderly women, but several reforms of the SSI income test are also highly effective. Discussion. The SSI program is target efficient in providing a broad safety net to economically vulnerable elderly women. The relationship between SSI and Social Security and the relationship between the SSI asset and income tests have to be reevaluated to make the program more effective and appropriate to changing household structure and work patterns among the elderly population52164XVI521Etats-UnisNG01United States Of AmericaNG01Washington DCNG02Washington DCNG02Femme03Woman03Vieillissement04Aging04Personne âgée05Elderly person05Sécurité sociale06Social Security06Evaluation07Evaluation07Statistique08Statistics08Réforme administrative09Administration Reform09Méthodologie10Methodology10Pauvreté11Poverty11Programme social12Social Plan12Projet13Project13Allocation14Allocation14047PSI 0895-7177Math. comput. model.3712-13A stage characteristic: Preserving product life cycle modelingCHANG (Ping-Teng)CHANG (Ching-Hsiang)Department of Industrial Engineering, Tunghai University, Box 985Taichung, 407TWN1 aut.2 aut.1259-12692003ENGINIST188083540001122546400200000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.13 ref.03-0504207PAMathematical and computer modellingGBRThe observed patterns of product life cycles indicate the 'stage' concerns. Such concerns include stage identification, stage-based strategies and, newly introduced here, stage modeling. Stage modeling, as newly introduced here, is concerned with modeling as well as aggregating individual stages in an overall inter-influence manner. Thus, stage modeling not only preserves the respective characteristics of the stages but also may be explored for the stage-related strategies. To date, this issue has not yet been explored in the PLC literature. This paper proposes an approach to modeling PLCs by addressing the stage characteristic-preserving aspect. The concept and technique of the stage characteristic-preserving modeling are discussed. The new product diffusion model by Bass is demonstrated which is bettered by the presented approach. Further, to illustrate the proposed approach, a numerical example is provided.001A02H02N2001A02H02M001D01A11001D01A13Modèle mathématique01Mathematical model01Modelo matemático01Modèle économétrique02Econometric model02Modelo econométrico02Gestion prévisionnelle03Forecasting management03Gestión provisional03Economie marché04Market economy04Economía mercado04Série temporelle05Time series05Serie temporal05Simulation numérique06Numerical simulation06Simulación numérica06Promotion vente07Sale promotion07Promoción venta07Cycle vie produitCD96Product life cycleCD96Modélisation stadeCD97Stage modelingCD97InterinfluenceCD98InterinfluenceCD98Modèle diffusion produit nouveauCD99New product diffusion modelCD99335 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1816Weigh-in-motion applications for intelligent transportation systems-commercial vehicle operations: Evaluation using WESTAPavement Management, Monitoring, and Accelerated Testing 2002TRISCHUK (Derek)BERTHELOT (Curtis)TAYLOR (Brian)Transportation Research Centre, College of Ergineering, University of Saskatchewan, 57 Campus DriveSaskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 5A9CAN1 aut.2 aut.International Road Dynamics, Inc., 702-43rd Street EastSaskatoon, Saskatchewan S7K 3T9CAN3 aut.87-952002ENGINIST10459B3540001122009301000000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.6 ref.03-0471689PATransportation research recordUSAAn investigation was undertaken to sort the efficiencies of different types of weigh-in-motion (WIM) systems commonly used for enforcement of commercial vehicle operations. Weigh station microsimulation model WESTA (WEigh STAtion) was used. The investigation focused, in particular, on the effect WIM system accuracy has on the effectiveness of presorting commercial vehicles before they approach a weigh station. WESTA simulations were performed, with and without mainline WIM, on a typical commercial weigh station facility across a range of commercial truck volumes (200,400, and 600 Class 9 trucks per hour) and WIM system accuracies (ASTM Type III and Type I WIM). Three evaluation criteria were used: (a) number of compliant trucks required to report to the statiott,(b) number of overweight trucks instructed to bypass the station, and (c) time the weigh station remained open. It was found that weight enforcement efficiency improved with WIM. The improvements in efficiency translate into considerable savings for both the weight enforcement agency in relation to improved enforcement effectiveness and protection of the infrastructure and for the trucking industry in relation to reduced user-delay costs. It was also found that higher WIM system accuracy results in higher agency and user savings.001D15C001D14A09295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Transport marchandise02Freight transportation02Transporte mercadería02Système transport03Transportation system03Sistema de transporte03Système intelligent04Intelligent system04Sistema inteligente04Véhicule utilitaire05Commercial vehicle05Vehículo utilitario05Camion06Lorry06Camión06Volume trafic07Capacity of traffic07Volumen tráfico07Description système08System description08Descripción sistema08Simulation numérique09Numerical simulation09Simulación numérica09Modèle microscopique10Microscopic model10Modelo microscópico10Etude cas11Case study11Estudio caso11Poids12Weight12Peso12Aspect économique13Economic aspect13Aspecto económico13Minimisation coût14Cost minimization14Minimización costo14Temps retard15Delay time15Tiempo retardo15WESTAINC72Pesage dynamiqueCD96Weigh in motionCD96321PSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1799Transit: planning and development, management and performance, marketing and fare policy2002ENG121 p.INIST10459B3540001121896400000000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.dissem.03-0459965PMTransportation research recordUSAMany of these papers were presented at the TRB 81st Annual Meeting, January 2002This issue contains 14 papers which deal with transit transportation. The principal topics approached by the papers are : transit transport planification and development, management and performance, optimization of transport networks, data enquiries, databases, modelling and simulation tools, marketing, fare policy, funding, signal priorities, passenger information systems, passenger behaviour and intermodal transportation, market study and econometric analysis of public transportation.001D15B001D15G001D15C001D15DEconomie transport01Economy of transports01Economía transporte01Transport en commun02Collective transport system02Transporte colectivo02Transport public03Public transportation03Transporte público03Transport intermodal04Intermodal transportation04Transporte intermodal04Transport ferroviaire05Rail transportation05Transporte ferroviaro05Autobus06Bus06Autobus06Planification07Planning07Planificación07Critère performance08Performance requirement08Criterio resultado08Itinéraire09Route09Itinerario09Modèle origine destination10Origin destination model10Modelo origen destinación10Réseau transport11Transportation network11Red transporte11Qualité service12Service quality12Calidad servicio12Collecte donnée13Data gathering13Recolección dato13Système information14Information system14Sistema información14Analyse coût15Cost analysis15Análisis costo15Télématique16Telematics16Telemática16Implémentation17Implementation17Ejecución17Evaluation performance18Performance evaluation18Evaluación prestación18Transport voyageur19Passenger transportation19Transporte pasajero19Tarification20Tariffication20Fijacion tarifa20Fixation prix21Pricing21Taxe22Tax22Contribución22Modèle économétrique23Econometric model23Modelo econométrico23Etude socioéconomique24Socioeconomic study24Estudio socioeconómico24Bien être économique25Welfare25Bienestar económico25Etude marché26Market survey26Estudio mercado26Financement27Financing27Financiación27Durée trajet28Travel time28Duración trayecto28Enquête29Survey29Encuesta29Simulation numérique30Numerical simulation30Simulación numérica30Trajet journalierINC72315PSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1811Transferability of a stochastic toll Plaza computer modelAdvanced Traffic Management Systems for Freeways and Traffic Signal Systems 2002KLODZINSKI (Jack)AL-DEEK (Haitham M.)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Central Florida, P.O. Box 162450Orlando FL 32816-2450USA1 aut.Transportation Systems Institute, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Central Florida, P.O. Box 162450Orlando FL 32816-2450USA2 aut.40-492002ENGINIST10459B3540001121900400500000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.12 ref.03-0449274PATransportation research recordUSATransferability of the TPSIM toll plaza microsimulation computer model to other toll plazas was explored with 3 days of data collected between 1994 and 2000 at Dean Plaza, an Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority (OOCEA) toll plaza. TPSIM is a discrete-event stochastic microscopic simulation model that has been previously validated at the 95% confidence level with data from OOCEA's busiest toll plaza, Holland East Plaza. This model has the capability to accurately model virtually any toll plaza scenario. To apply this model to another toll plaza, a calibration procedure is necessary. To identify the modifications necessary to the input parameters, over 400 simulation runs with the 3 selected days from Dean Plaza were compared and statistically analyzed for accuracy. An experimental design was outlined and followed to accurately account for each trial simulation run during the calibration process. The service time was determined to have the most significant impact on the simulation model in much the same manner as it does in the field. The measures of effectiveness (MOEs) chosen to evaluate TPSIM were throughput, average queuing delay, maximum queuing delay, and total queuing delay. At the 95% confidence level, no significant difference was found in the comparison of field and simulated MOE values for all 3 days. Comparison of the Holland East and Dean Plaza results indicates that the TPSIM simulation model is transferable to another toll plaza with different configurations.001D15B001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Péage02Toll02Peaje02Simulation numérique03Numerical simulation03Simulación numérica03Modèle stochastique04Stochastic model04Modelo estocástico04Transférabilité05Transferability05Capacidad transferencia05Système événement discret06Discrete event system06Sistema acontecimiento discreto06Collecte donnée07Data gathering07Recolección dato07Durée service08Service life08Duración servicio08Temps arrivée09Arrival time09Tiempo llegada09Fréquence10Frequency10Frecuencia10Géométrie11Geometry11Geometría11Etalonnage12Calibration12Contraste12Ecoulement trafic13Traffic flow13Flujo tráfico13Evaluation performance14Performance evaluation14Evaluación prestación14Analyse statistique15Statistical analysis15Análisis estadístico15307PSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1805Microsimulation in travel demand modeling: Lessons learned from the New York best practice modelTravel Demand and Land Use 2002VOVSHA (Peter)PETERSEN (Eric)DONNELLY (Robert)PB Consult, Parsons Brinckerhoff, 5 Penn Plaza, 17th FloorNew York NY 10001USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.68-772002ENGINIST10459B3540001121891500900000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.13 ref.03-0448819PATransportation research recordUSAMicrosimulation is increasingly assuming a major role in the advancement of demand-modeling practice. At the same time, it is attracting growing attention from the larger transportation-planning community. Four basic advantages of microsimulation versus conventional fractional-probability models are examined. The first is the technical advantage related to computational savings in the calculation and storage of large multidimensional probability arrays. The second is the meaningful advantage gained in the explicit modeling of various decision-making chains and time-space constraints on individual travel that allows for behavioral realism in the demand-modeling procedure. The third relates to the variability of microsimulation outcomes, which can yield full information about the distributions of the travel demand statistics of interest rather than single deterministic estimates or average values. As soon as constraints are introduced into the modeling framework (which often is done at the destination choice stage), competition arises, although generally it has been ignored in standard models. Microsimulation has the potential to handle this competition over work attractions and other travel activities in a meaningful fashion, which is the fourth advantage. These four advantages of microsimulation are discussed in light of the recent development and application of the New York best practice model, a microsimulation demand-modeling system for the New York-New-Jersey-Connecticut metropolitan area.001D15ATransports01Transportation01Transportes01Demande transport02Transport demand02Demanda transporte02Simulation numérique03Numerical simulation03Simulación numérica03Modèle microscopique04Microscopic model04Modelo microscópico04Analyse comportementale05Behavioral analysis05Análisis conductual05Espace temps06Space time06Espacio tiempo06Prise décision07Decision making07Toma decision07Durée trajet08Travel time08Duración trayecto08Ménage09Household09Familia09Analyse contrainte10Stress analysis10Análisis tensión10Implémentation11Implementation11Ejecución11New YorkNG12New YorkNG12Nueva YorkNG12Expérience13Experience13Experiencia13Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG307PSI 0769-026692p.1Un modèle de microsimulation pour l'évaluation des émissions polluantes dans les aires urbaines en fonction du régime de marche et pour une typologie véhiculaireTransports et pollution de l'air : Avignon, 16-18 juin 2003Transport and air pollutionD'ELIA (Serein)JOUMARD (Robert)ed.Università della Calabria, Dipart. di Pianificazione TerritorialePonte Bucci Rende Cosenza ITA1 aut.Institut national de recherche sur les transports et leur sécuritéArcueilFRApatr.v2.137-v2.1432003FREeng2-85782-588-9INIST228633540001173538905100000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.03-0440130PCAActes INRETSFRAA microsimulation model for calculating of pollutant emissions in the urban areas in accordance of driving rate and for a vehicular typologyCet article présente un modèle construit pour le calcul des émissions polluantes dans les aires urbaines, et utilise une méthodologie (d'Elia - Danieli) qui permet de mesurer les réelles émissions sur des véhicules équipés, avec des caractéristiques semblables à celles du parc véhiculaire Italien. Les modèles formulés pour le calcul des émissions polluantes sont nombreux, mais les réelles émissions polluantes en Italie où il existe des conditions de débit très variables même pour la morphologie des infrastructures urbaines existantes (largeur des routes, distances entre les intersections, obstacles, visibilité, etc.) restent peu connues. Les mesures sont relatives à des cycles de conduite UDC et EUDC de plusieurs véhicules, catalysés et non catalysés, qui ont circulé pendant plusieurs mois, avec des flux variables dans des zones caractérisées par des accélérations et des décélérations continues, ou dans des aires sans trafic. La base de données obtenue permet la construction et le calibrage d'un modèle de prévision des émissions valide et adhérent à la réalité des villes italiennes. Le modèle a été ensuite comparé à d'autres modèles pour vérifier les diversités existantes.001D15C001D16C04CVéhicule routier01Road vehicle01Vehículo caminero01Emission polluant02Pollutant emission02Emisión contaminante02Méthode calcul03Computing method03Método cálculo03ItalieNG04ItalyNG04ItaliaNG04Méthodologie05Methodology05Metodología05Collecte donnée06Data gathering06Recolección dato06Modèle régression07Regression model07Modelo regresión07Accélération08Acceleration08Aceleración08Décélération09Deceleration09Desaceleración09Etude comparative10Comparative study10Estudio comparativo10Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG300PSITransports et pollution de l'air. Colloque12Avignon FRA2003-06-16Transport and air pollution. Symposium12Avignon FRA2003-06-16 0010-4655CPHCBZComput. phys. commun.1471-2Large-scale multi-agent transportation simulationsProceedings of the europhysics conference on computational physics (CCP 2001): computational modeling and simulation of complex systems, Aachen, Germany, September 5-8, 2001CETIN (Nurhan)NAGEL (Kai)RANEY (Bryan)VOELLMY (Andreas)ATTIG (Norbert)ed.ESSER (Rüdiger)ed.KREMER (Manfred)ed.Department of Computer Science, ETH Zentrum IFW B27.1, ETH ZürichCHE1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.NIC, Research Centre JülichDEU1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.559-5642002ENGINIST146563540001044964412100000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.14 ref.03-0439023PCAComputer physics communicationsNLDIt is now possible to microsimulate the traffic of whole metropolitan areas with 10 million travelers or more, &dquot;micro&dquot; meaning that each traveler is resolved individually as a particle. In contrast to physics or chemistry, these particles have internal intelligence; for example, they know where they are going. This means that a transportation simulation project will have, besides the traffic microsimulation, modules which model this intelligent behavior. The most important modules are for route generation and for demand generation. Demand is generated by each individual in the simulation making a plan of activities such as sleeping, eating, working, shopping, etc. If activities are planned at different locations, they obviously generate demand for transportation. This however is not enough since those plans are influenced by congestion which initially is not known. This is solved via a relaxation method, which means iterating back and forth between the activities/routes generation and the traffic simulation.001D15ATrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Système transport02Transportation system02Sistema de transporte02Planification09Planning09Planificación09File attente13Queueing theory13Calcul parallèle14Parallel computation14Cálculo paralelo14Simulation numérique15Numerical simulation15Simulación numérica15Automate cellulaire16Cellular automaton16Autómata celular168940PACINC91300PSICCP 2001: Europhysics Conference on Computational PhysicsAachen DEU2001-09-05 0354-0243Yugosl. j. oper. res.122An expert system for national economy model simulationsROLJIC (Lazo)Fulbright Fellow, DuPree College of Management, Georgia Institute of TechnologyAtlanta GeorgiaUSA1 aut.Faculty of Economics, University of Banja LukaBanja LukaBIH1 aut.247-2692002ENGINIST226013540001179246300900000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.03-0436009PAYugoslav journal of operations researchYUGThere are some fundamental economic uncertainties. We cannot forecast economic events with a very high scientific precision. It is very clear that there does not exist a unique &dquot;general&dquot; model, which can yield all answers to a wide range of macroeconomic issues. Therefore, we use several different kinds of models on segments of the macroeconomic problem. Different models can distinguish/solve economy desegregation, time series analysis and other subfactors involved in macroeconomic problem solving. A major issue becomes finding a meaningful method to link these econometric models. Macroeconomic models were linked through development of an Expert System for National Economy Model Simulations (ESNEMS). ESNEMS consists of five parts: (1) small-scale short-term national econometric model, (2) Methodology of Interactive Nonlinear Goal Programming (MINGP), (3) data-base of historical macro-economic aggregates, (4) software interface for interactive communications between a model and a decision maker, and (5) software for solving problems. ESNEMS was developed to model the optimum macro-economic policy of a developing country (SFRY-formerly Yugoslavia). Most econometric models are very complex. Optimizing of the economic policy is typically defined as a nonlinear goal programming problem. To solve/optimize these models, a new methodology, MINGP, was developed as a part of ESNEMS. MINGP is methodologically based on linear goal programming and feasible directions method. Using Euler's Homogeneous Function Theorem, MINGP linearizes nonlinear homogeneous functions. The highest priorities in minimizing the objective function are the growth of gross domestic product and the decrease of inflation. In the core of the optimization model, MINGP, there is a small-scale econometric model. This model was designed through analysis of the causal relations in the SFRY's social reproduction process of the past 20 years. The objective of the econometric model is to simulate potential short term (one-year) national economic policies. Ex-ante simulation and optimization of economic policy for 1986 showed that, in SFRY, non-consistent macro-economic policy was resolute and led to both slower economic development and more rapid growth of inflation.001D00D001D01A03Système expert01Expert system01Sistema experto01Modèle économique02Economic model02Modelo económico02Modèle économétrique03Econometric model03Modelo econométrico03Macroéconomie04Macroeconomics04Macroeconomía04Analyse multicritère05Multicriteria analysis05Análisis multicriterio05Prise décision06Decision making06Toma decision06Programmation non linéaire07Non linear programming07Programación no lineal07Programmation objectif08Goal programming08Programación objetivo08Optimum Pareto09Pareto optimum09Optimo Pareto09Fonction production Cobb Douglas10Cobb Douglas production function10Función producción Cobb Douglas10Théorème fonction homogène EulerINC82300PSI Gestion durable de nappes aquifères : Une approche par la théorie de la viabilitéTERREAUX (Jean-Philippe)RAPAPORT (Alain)DOYEN (Luc)Institut de recherche pour l'ingénierie de l'agriculture et de l'environnementAntonyFRAEcole nationale supérieure agronomique de MontpellierMontpellierFRAINRA. Centre de recherche de MontpellierMontpellierFRAUniversité de Montpellier 2MontpellierFRA2001FREfre22 p.ill.CEMAGREF01-0789INISTGR 19033540001173891200000000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.03-0430770RMFRASustainable management of aquifers: a viability approachCe document aborde avec les outils de la viabilité le problème de la gestion des nappes aquifères. On suppose ici qu'un ensemble d'agriculteurs utilise de l'eau pompée dans une nappe phréatique, pour irriguer les cultures. Cette eau permet une plus forte production, ce qui se traduit par une plus grande utilité procurée aux agents considérés. Toutefois cette ressource ne se renouvelle qu'avec un certain retard. Nous introduisons la notion de noyau de viabilité, afin d'étudier d'une part les états et d'autre part les politiques qui soient soutenables. Les résultats analytiques sont illustrés par des simulations numériques.430A02C001E01N03002A32C03B226A03Agriculture durable01Sustainable agriculture01Agricultura sostenible01Développement durable02Sustainable development02Desarrollo durable02Exploitation durable03Sustainable use03Exploitación sustentable03Gestion eau04Water management04Gestión del agua04Gestion ressource eau05Water resource management05Gestión recurso agua05Irrigation06Irrigation06Irrigación06Politique environnement07Environmental policy07Política medio ambiente07Pompage08Pumping08Bombeo08Viabilité09Viability09Viabilidad09Nappe eau10Aquifers10Capa agua10Nappe phréatique11Ground water table11Capa freática11Eau souterraine12Ground water12Agua subterránea12Méthodologie15Methodology15Metodología15Modélisation16Modeling16Modelización16Aide décision20Decision aid20Ayuda decisión20Méthode analyse21Analysis method21Método análisis21Résolution problème23Problem solving23Resolución problema23Modèle économétrique24Econometric model24Modelo econométrico24Modèle mathématique25Mathematical model25Modelo matemático25Modèle simulation26Simulation model26Modelo simulación26DURABILITECD98SUSTAINABILITYCD98SOSTENIBILIDADCD98Economie agricole33Agricultural economics33Economía agricola33Effet environnement34Environmental effect34Efecto medio ambiente34Economie mathématique35Mathematical economy35Economía matemática35Econométrie36Econometrics36Econometría36Hydrogéologie37Hydrogeology37Hidrogeología37Mathématiques appliquées38Applied mathematics38Matemáticas aplicadas38Socioéconomie41Socioeconomics41Socioeconomía41293 0191-2615TRBMDYTransp. res., Part B : methodol.379Simulation estimation of mixed discrete choice models using randomized and scrambled Halton sequencesBHAT (Chandra R.)Department of Civil Engineering, ECJ 6.8, University of Texas at AustinAustin, TX 78712USA1 aut.837-8552003ENGINIST12377B3540001123311200400000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/403-0426555PATransportation research. Part B : methodologicalGBRThe use of simulation techniques has been increasing in recent years in the transportation and related fields to accommodate flexible and behaviorally realistic structures for analysis of decision processes. This paper proposes a randomized and scrambled version of the Halton sequence for use in simulation estimation of discrete choice models. The scrambling of the Halton sequence is motivated by the rapid deterioration of the standard Halton sequence's coverage of the integration domain in high dimensions of integration. The randomization of the sequence is motivated from a need to statistically compute the simulation variance of model parameters. The resulting hybrid sequence combines the good coverage property of quasi-Monte Carlo sequences with the ease of estimating simulation error using traditional Monte Carlo methods. The paper develops an evaluation framework for assessing the performance of the traditional pseudo-random sequence, the standard Halton sequence, and the scrambled Halton sequence. The results of computational experiments indicate that the scrambled Halton sequence performs better than the standard Halton sequence and the traditional pseudo-random sequence for simulation estimation of models with high dimensionality of integration.001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Modèle simulation02Simulation model02Modelo simulación02Modèle mixte03Mixed model03Modelo mixto03Choix04Choice04Elección04Randomisation05Randomization05Aleatorización05Echange désordonné06Scrambling06Intercambio desordendo06Méthode Monte Carlo07Monte Carlo method07Método Monte Carlo07Evaluation performance08Performance evaluation08Evaluación prestación08Résultat09Result09Resultado09Simulation numérique10Numerical simulation10Simulación numérica10Fonction vraisemblance11Likelihood function11Función verosimilitud11Modèle économétrique12Econometric model12Modelo econométrico12Prise décision13Decision making13Toma decision13Modèle probitCD96Probit modelCD96Modelo probitCD96293PSI 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1294Impact of dynamic and safety-conscious route guidance on accident riskABDULHAI (Baher)LOOK (Horace)ITS Centre, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of TorontoToronto ON, M5S 1A4CAN1 aut.Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of TorontoToronto ON, M5S 1A4CAN2 aut.369-3762003ENGINIST572E3540001185649000500000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.19 ref.03-0424358PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAUnder intelligent transportation systems, dynamic route guidance systems (DRG) provide routing information to motorists based on current traffic conditions on a network. Not enough attention, however, has been given to the impact of such dynamic routing decisions on network safety in terms of the predicted number of accidents. The objectives of this paper are to investigate the variation of network-wide accidents caused by traffic redistribution subject to various levels of DRG market penetration, and to examine the potential of a new safety-enhanced route guidance system. A microsimulation model was developed and integrated with a set of accident prediction models for links and intersections. Accident estimates were plotted against time to produce an accident profile that could describe the change of accident occurrence over a time period. Accident profiles, together with average travel time, were used to explain the relationships between DRG market penetration and the number of network-wide accidents. The integrated simulation model was also applied to enhance DRG by suggesting routes with the fewest estimated accidents and hence making route guidance safety conscious.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Sécurité trafic02Traffic safety02Seguridad tráfico02Prévention accident03Accident prevention03Prevención accidente03Analyse risque04Risk analysis04Análisis riesgo04Accident circulation05Traffic accident05Accidente tráfico05Système transport06Transportation system06Sistema de transporte06Système intelligent07Intelligent system07Sistema inteligente07Gestion trafic08Traffic management08Gestión tráfico08Guidage09Guidance09Guiado09Routage10Routing10Enrutamiento10Simulation numérique11Numerical simulation11Simulación numérica11Modèle microscopique12Microscopic model12Modelo microscópico12Modèle dynamique13Dynamic model13Modelo dinámico13Modèle prévision14Forecast model14Modelo previsión14Demande transport15Transport demand15Demanda transporte15293PSI 1010-7940EJCSE7Eur. j. cardio-thorac. surg.235Choice of a mechanical valve or a bioprosthesis for AVR: does CABG matter? DiscussionPUVIMANASINGHE (John P. A.)TAKKENBERG (Johanna J. M.)EIJKEMANS (Marinus J. C.)STEYERBERG (Ewout W.)VAN HERWERDEN (Lex A.)GRUNKEMEIER (Gary L.)HABBEMA (J. Dik F.)BOGERS (Ad J. J. C.)ANTUNES (M.)comment.OELERT (H.)comment.YANKAH (C.)comment.BAUDET (E.)comment.Department of Cardio-thoracic Surgery, Erasmus Medical CenterRotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.5 aut.8 aut.Center for Clinical Decision Sciences, Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical CenterRotterdamNLD1 aut.3 aut.4 aut.7 aut.Providence Health SystemPortland, ORUSA6 aut.688-6952003ENGINIST213073540001111652300600000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.21 ref.03-0422793PARCTAEuropean journal of cardio-thoracic surgeryNLDObjective: Mechanical valves and bioprostheses are the commonly used devices in aortic valve replacement (AVR). Many patients with valvular disease also require concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). We used a microsimulation model to provide insight into the outcomes of patients after AVR with mechanical valves and stented bioprostheses, with and without CABG, and to determine the age-thresholds or age crossover points in outcomes between the two valve types. Methods: We conducted a meta-analysis of published results after primary AVR with mechanical prostheses (nine reports, 4274 patients, 25,726 patient-years) and stented porcine bioprostheses (13 reports, 9007 patients, 54,151 patient-years) to estimate risks of valve-related events. A hazard ratio of 1.3 was used to incorporate the effect of CABG on long-term survival. Estimates were entered into a microsimulation model, which was then used to predict the outcomes of patients after AVR, with and without CABG. The model calculations were validated using a large data set from Portland, USA. Results: For a 65-year-old male without CABG, the life expectancy (LE) was 11.2 and 11.6 years and the event-free life expectancy (EFLE) was 8.2 and 8.9 years, respectively, after implantation with mechanical valves and bioprostheses. The lifetime risk of at least one valve-related event was 51 and 47%, respectively. The age crossover point between the two valve types, considering the above outcome parameters, was 59, 60 and 63 years, respectively. CABG reduced LE and consequently EFLE and lifetime risk of an event, but only minimally influenced the patient age crossover points. The model calculations showed good agreement with the Portland data. Conclusions: The currently recommended patient age for using a bioprosthesis (65 years) could be lowered further, irrespective of concomitant CABG. The trade-off between the reduced risks of bioprosthetic failure and of hemorrhage in mechanical valves, resulting from a lower LE, minimized the effect of CABG on the age crossover points between the two valve types.002B25EValvule aortique03Aortic valve03Válvula aórtica03Remplacement05Replacement05Reemplazo05Artère coronaire06Coronary artery06Arteria coronaria06Pronostic08Prognosis08Pronóstico08Modélisation09Modeling09Modelización09Valvulopathie aortique10Aortic valve disease10Valvulopatía aórtica10Cardiopathie coronaire11Coronary heart disease11Cardiopatía coronaria11Homme12Human12Hombre12Chirurgie combinée13Combined surgery13Cirugía combinada13Dérivation19Bypass19Derivación19Greffe20Graft20Injerto20Aortocoronaire21Aortocoronary21Aortocoronaria21Traitement25Treatment25Tratamiento25BioprothèseCD96BioprosthesisCD96BioprótesisCD96Chirurgie38Surgery38Cirugía38Cardiopathie valvulaire61Cardiac valvular disease61Cardiopatía valvular61293PSI 0015-749XFOSCADFor. sci.482Modeling changes in wildlife habitat and timber revenues in response to Forest managementForest-wildlife habitat relationshipsMARZLUFF (John M.)MILLSPAUGH (Joshua J.)CEDER (Kevin R.)OLIVER (Chadwick D.)WITHEY (John)MCCARTER (James B.)MASON (C. L.)COMNICK (Jeffrey)DESTEFANO (Stephen)introd.HAIGHT (Robert G.)introd.College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Box 352100Seattle, WA 98195USA1 aut.3 aut.4 aut.5 aut.6 aut.7 aut.8 aut.Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences, University of Missouri, 302 A-BNR BuildingColumbia, MO 65211USA2 aut.U.S. Geological Survey, Massachusetts Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Holdsworth Natural Resources Center, University of MassachusettsAmherst, MA 01003USA1 aut.USDA Forest Service, North Central Research Station, 1992 Folwell Ave.St. Paul, MN 55108USA2 aut.191-2022002ENGINIST85663540001006687700200000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.33 ref.03-0404648PAForest scienceUSAFew models evaluate the effects of forest management options on wildlife habitat and incorporate temporal and spatial trends in forest growth. Moreover, existing habitat models do not explicitly consider economic trade-offs or allow for landscape level projections. To address these concerns, we linked standard wildlife habitat suitability models with habitat projections from the Landscape Management System (LMS). LMS integrates spatially explicit forest inventories with forest growth, decay, and silviculture treatment (e.g., planting, thinning, harvesting) models to compare some economic and biological impacts of forest management on wildlife habitats at spatial scales ranging from the individual forest stand to the landscape. We used LMS to quantify pileated woodpecker (Dryocopus pileatus), Cooper's hawk (Accipiter cooperi), and southern red-backed vole (Clethrionomys gapperi) habitat qualities across landscapes and to project habitat changes through time.[...]002A14B04B002A14D02B002A33B002A33C01Changement01Change01Cambio01Revenu économique02Income02Renta02Gestion forestière03Forest management03Administración forestal03Impact économiqueINC04Impact environnementINC05Modélisation06Modeling06Modelización06Modèle mathématiqueINC07Habitat08Habitat08Habitat08Vie sauvage09Wild life09Vida salvaje09FauneINC10SylvicoleINC11AvesNS12AvesNS12AvesNS12RodentiaNS13RodentiaNS13RodentiaNS13Bois15Wood15Madera15Produit forestierINC16WashingtonNG20WashingtonNG20WashingtónNG20Etude économiqueINC27Etude régionaleINC28Etude sur modèleINC29Dynamique végétationINC68Filière boisINC69Gestion environnementINC70Production forestièreINC71Protection fauneINC72Qualité environnementINC73SylvicultureINC74Simulation ordinateurINC75Modèle dynamiqueINC76Modèle économétriqueINC77Modèle simulationINC78Modèle spatialINC79Echelle spatialeINC80FORET DE PRODUCTIONINC81Forêt décidueINC82FORET RESINEUSEINC83FORET TEMPEREEINC84PaysageINC85Peuplement forestierINC86Accipiter cooperiINC87Clethrionomys gapperiINC88Dryocopus pileatusINC89INVENTAIRE FORESTIERINC90Landscape Management SystemINC91VertebrataNSVertebrataNSVertebrataNSMammaliaNSMammaliaNSMammaliaNSEtats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNGEcologie33Ecology33Ecología33Economie forestière34Forest economics34Economía forestal34Foresterie35Forestry35Ciencias forestales35Economie mathématiqueINC36InformatiqueINC37Zone tempérée59Temperate zone59Zona temperada59ETATS DU PACIFIQUE (EU)INC93REGION NEARCTIQUEINC94279 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1800Motorway flow quality impacts of advanced driver assistance systemsIntelligent Transportation Systems and Vehicle-Highway Automation 2002HOOGENDOORN (Serge P.)MINDERHOUD (Michiel M.)Transportation and Traffic Engineering Section, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, P.O. Box 50482600 GA DelftNLD1 aut.2 aut.69-772002ENGINIST10459B3540001121890700900000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.14 ref.03-0388237PATransportation research recordUSAAn ex ante impact assessment of advanced driver assistance systems was conducted with focus on autonomous intelligent cruise control and intelligent speed adaptation. The effects of these systems on efficiency, reliability, driving comfort, and safety were addressed by microsimulation for different penetration levels and bottleneck layouts. The deployment of cruise control improves bottleneck capacity. The bottleneck reliability, however, deteriorates in most cases. No significant changes in traffic safety, expressed by the time drivers are exposed to small time-to-collision values, could be established. From the simulation experiments it appears that intelligent speed adaptation has no effect on capacity and provides no substantial contrihution to bottleneck reliability. Contrary to expectations, no significant safety benefits could be established using the study's assessment approach.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Autoroute02Freeway02Autopista02Ecoulement trafic03Traffic flow03Flujo tráfico03Système intelligent04Intelligent system04Sistema inteligente04Conduite véhicule05Vehicle driving05Conducción vehículo05Assistance utilisateur06User assistance06Asistencia usuario06Vitesse déplacement07Speed07Velocidad desplazamiento07Efficacité08Efficiency08Eficacia08Sécurité trafic09Traffic safety09Seguridad tráfico09Conception système10System design10Concepción sistema10Description système11System description11Descripción sistema11Etude impact12Impact study12Estudio impacto12Qualité13Quality13Calidad13Modèle simulation14Simulation model14Modelo simulación14Scénario15Script15Argumento15Résultat16Result16Resultado16Recommandation17Recommendation17Recomendación17272PSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1800Genetic algorithm-based optimization approach and generic tool for calibrating traffic microscopic simulation parametersIntelligent Transportation Systems and Vehicle-Highway Automation 2002MA (Tao)ABDULHAI (Baher)Intelligent Transportation Systems Centre and Testbed, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George StreetToronto, Ontario, M5S 1A4CAN1 aut.2 aut.6-152002ENGINIST10459B3540001121890700200000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.15 ref.03-0387913PATransportation research recordUSAGENOSIM is a generic traffic microsimulation parameter optimization tool that uses genetic algorithms and was implemented in the Port Area network in downtown Toronto, Canada. GENOSIM was developed as a pilot software as part of the pursuit of a fast, systematic, and robust calibration process. It employs the state of the art in combinatorial parametric optimization to automate the tedious task of hand calibrating traffic microsimulation models. The employed global search technique, genetic algorithms, can be integrated with any dynamic traffic microscopic simulation tool. In this research, Paramics, the microscopic traffic simulation platform currently adopted at the University of Toronto Intelligent Transportation Systems Centre, was used. Paramics consists of high-performance, cross-linked traffic models that have multiple user adjustable parameters. Genetic algorithms in GENOSIM manipulate the values of those control parameters and search for an optimal set of values that minimize the discrepancy between simulation output and real field data. Results obtained by replicating observed vehicle counts are promising.001D15C001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Système intelligent02Intelligent system02Sistema inteligente02Trafic routier03Road traffic03Tráfico carretera03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Algorithme génétique05Genetic algorithm05Algoritmo genético05Optimisation06Optimization06Optimización06Conception système08System design08Concepción sistema08Intégration09Integration09Integración09Interface utilisateur10User interface10Interfase usuario10Etude cas11Case study11Estudio caso11Expérimentation12Experimentation12Experimentación12Résultat13Result13Resultado13CanadaNG14CanadaNG14CanadaNG14Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG272PSI 0043-1737WEREATWeed res.422Long-term modelling of weed control strategies: analysis of threshold-based options for weed species with contrasted competitive abilitiesMUNIER-JOLAIN (N. M.)CHAUVEL (B.)GASQUEZ (J.)Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (1NRA), Unité de Malherbologie et AgronomieDijonFRA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.107-1222002ENGINIST121683540001012258900300000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/403-0321741PAWeed researchGBRA simple life-cycle-based demography model was adapted for two contrasting weed species (Alopecurus myosuroides and Poa annual. This model included a seed production function that accounted for population self-regulation through weed:weed interactions. The A. myosuroides version of the model was tested with field data. Long-term simulations of population demography were then performed to investigate the relationship between weed control strategies based on density thresholds and both the frequency of herbicide use and the long-term economic profitability. This study confirms that threshold-based weed management strategies are more cost-effective than spraying every year and may allow important reductions in herbicide use. However, after the first transient years of either systematically spraying or withholding herbicide, the long-term spraying frequency was insensitive to threshold values between 0.01 and 100 plants m^-2. The highest long-term profitability was obtained for the lowest threshold tested, and the profitability decreased rapidly when the threshold was raised above 4-6 and 10-20 plants m^-2 for A. myosuroides and P. annua respectively. The study thus indicates that the exact threshold value is of little importance for the long-term reliance of the system on herbicide, provided that it is reasonably low. For species with low competitive ability, high thresholds may be used in some cropping systems to reduce the spraying frequency for environmental considerations, but those options would also reduce the profitability if no compensatory measures were taken.002A34H02BDésherbage chimique01Chemical weed control01Deshierba química01Stratégie02Strategy02Estrategia02Aptitude compétition04Competitive ability04Aptitud competencia04Seuil dégât économique05Economic damage threshold05Umbral daño económico05Spécificité espèce06Species specificity06Especificidad especie06Modélisation07Modeling07Modelización07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Long terme09Long term09Largo plazo09Mauvaise herbe10Weed10Malezas10Alopecurus myosuroidesNS12Alopecurus myosuroidesNS12Alopecurus myosuroidesNS12Poa annuaNS13Poa annuaNS13Poa annuaNS13Herbicide19Herbicide19Herbicida19Etude sur modèle27Model study27Estudio sobre modelo27Agriculture raisonnéeINC68Protection environnementINC69RentabilitéINC70Compétition interspécifiqueINC71Densité populationINC72Dynamique populationINC73Simulation ordinateurINC74Modèle économétriqueINC75Modèle mathématiqueINC76Densité dépendanceINC77Fonction productionINC78Donnée expérimentaleINC84Essai en champINC85BourgogneINC86GramineaeNSGramineaeNSGramineaeNSMonocotyledonesNSMonocotyledonesNSMonocotyledonesNSAngiospermaeNSAngiospermaeNSAngiospermaeNSSpermatophytaNSSpermatophytaNSSpermatophytaNSPesticidePesticidesPlaguicidaAgronomie33Agronomy33Agronomía33Economie agricole34Agricultural economics34Economía agricola34Malherbologie35Weed science35Ciencia malas hierbas35Mathématiques appliquées36Applied mathematics36Matemáticas aplicadas36Produit agrochimique53Agricultural chemical product53Producto químico agrícola53216 0003-4975ATHSAKAnn. thorac. surg.755Prognosis after aortic root replacement with cryopreserved allografts in adultsTAKKENBERG (Johanna J. M.)EIJKEMANS (Marinus J. C.)VAN HERWERDEN (Lex A.)STEYERBERG (Ewout W.)LANE (Mary M.)ELKINS (Ronald C.)HABBEMA (J. Dik F.)BOGERS (Ad J. J. C.)Departments of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery and Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamNLDSection of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Oklahoma Health Sciences CenterOklahoma City, OklahomaUSA1482-14892003ENGINIST137793540001180705501800000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.31 ref.03-0287919PAThe Annals of thoracic surgeryUSABackground. Aortic root replacement with cryopreserved allografts is associated with excellent hemodynamics, little endocarditis, low thromboembolic event rates, and no need for anticoagulation. There is, however, concern regarding the long-term durability of this valve substitute, especially in younger patients. Meta-analysis and microsimulation were used to calculate age-specific long-term prognosis after allograft aortic root replacement based on current evidence. Methods. Our center's experience with cryopreserved allograft aortic root replacement in 165 adult patients was combined in a meta-analysis with reported and individual results from four other hospitals. Using this information, the microsimulation model predicted age- and gender-specific total and reoperation-free and event-free life expectancy. Results. The pooled results comprised 629 patients with a total follow-up of 1860 patient-years (range 0 to 12.8 years). Annual risks were 0.6% for thromboembolism, 0.05% for bleeding, 0.5% for endocarditis, and 0.5% for nonstructural valve failure. Structural allograft failure requiring reoperation occurred in 15 patients, and a patient age-specific Weibull function was constructed accordingly. Calculated total life expectancy varied from 27 years in a 25-year-old to 12 years in a 65-year-old male; corresponding actual lifetime risk of reoperation was 89% and 35%, respectively. Conclusions. Cryopreserved aortic allografts have an age-related limited durability. This results in a considerable lifetime risk of reoperation, especially in young patients. The combination of meta-analysis and microsimulation provides an appropriate tool for estimating individualized long-term outcome after aortic valve replacement and can be useful both for patient counseling and prognostic research purposes.002B25EHomogreffe01Homograft01Homoinjerto01Cryoconservation02Cryopreservation02Crioconservación02Homme03Human03Hombre03Valvule aortique04Aortic valve04Válvula aórtica04Pronostic05Prognosis05Pronóstico05Mortalité06Mortality06Mortalidad06Morbidité07Morbidity07Morbilidad07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Métaanalyse09Metaanalysis09Mataanálisis09Analyse risque10Risk analysis10Análisis riesgo10Espérance vie11Life expectancy11Esperanza de vida11Greffe37Graft37Injerto37Chirurgie38Surgery38Cirugía38188PSI 0336-1454357-358La cessation d'activité au sein des couples : y a-t-il interdépendance des choix ?SEDILLOT (B.)WALRAET (E.)Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques. (I.N.S.E.E.). Paris.FRA79-1025 tabl., 6 graph.2002-12FREBDSP/CREDESS18880024 ref.03-0221746PAECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUEFRADans la plupart des modèles de choix de départ à la retraite, la liquidation des droits ne prend pas en compte la présence d'un conjoint. Or, plusieurs facteurs pourraient générer une interdépendance entre les décisions d'activité des deux conjoints. L'analyse descriptive des comportements de cessations d'activité des couples semble accréditer l'idée d'une certaine interdépendance des choix des conjoints conduisant à un effort de rapprochement des dates de cessation. Mais la forte pénalisation des départs anticipés dans le régime général limite la portée de cet effet, comme l'illustrent des simulations sur cas type.002B30A11AgeAgeEdadRetraiteRetirementJubilaciónSexeSexSexoMotivationMotivationMotivaciónChoixChoiceElecciónPrioritéPriorityPrioridadCoupleCoupleParejaModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoSimulationSimulationSimulaciónFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG139 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1122Econometric models of asymmetric ascending auctionsHAN HONGSHUM (Matthew)Department of Economics, Princeton University, Fisher HallPrinceton, NJ 08544-1021USA1 aut.Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins UniversityUSA2 aut.327-3582003ENGINIST164603540001071683600400000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/403-0142721PAJournal of econometricsNLD*We develop econometric models of ascending (English) auctions which allow for both bidder asymmetries as well as common and/or private value components in bidders' underlying valuations. We show that the equilibrium inverse bid functions in each round of the auction are implicitly defined (pointwise) by a system of nonlinear equations, so that conditions for the existence and uniqueness of an increasing-strategy equilibrium are essentially identical to those which ensure a unique and increasing solution to the system of equations. We exploit the computational tractability of this characterization in order to develop an econometric model, thus extending the literature on structural estimation of auction models. Finally, an empirical example illustrates how equilibrium learning affects bidding during the course of the auction.001A02H01K001D01A01001A02H02C001D04A02Modèle économétrique01Econometric model01Modelo econométrico01Méthode statistique02Statistical method02Método estadístico02Enchère03Bidding03Subasta03Système équation04Equation system04Sistema ecuación04Système non linéaire05Non linear system05Sistema no lineal05Modèle structure06Structural model06Modelo estructura06Condition existence07Existence condition07Condición existencia07Unicité solution08Solution uniqueness08Unicidad solución08Equilibre Nash09Nash equilibrium09Equilibrio Nash09Jeu dynamique10Dynamic game10Juego dinámico10Loi lognormale11Lognormal distribution11Ley lognormal11Modèle empirique12Empirical model12Modelo empírico12Méthode Monte Carlo13Monte Carlo method13Método Monte Carlo13Transmission information14Information transmission14Transmisión información14Estimation simulationCD96Simulation estimationCD96Mesure asymétrieCD97Skewness measureCD97Enchère asymétriqueCD98Asymmetric auctionCD98Enchère ascendanteCD99Ascending auctionCD99083 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy315The costs of the Kyoto Protocol in the European UnionVIGUIER (Laurent L.)BABIKER (Mustafa H.)REILLY (John M.)MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 77 Massachusetts Avenue MIT E40-271Cambridge, MA 02139-4307USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.Logilab-HEC, University of GenevaGenevaCHE1 aut.459-4812003ENGINIST164173540001072270100500000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/403-0138904PAEnergy policyGBRWe estimate reference CO₂ emission projections in the European Union, and quantify the economic impacts of the Kyoto commitment on Member States. We consider the case where each EU member individually meets a CO₂ emissions target, applying a country-wide cap and trade system to meet the target but without trade among countries. We use a version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, here disaggregated to separately include 9 European Community countries and commercial and household transportation sectors. We compare our results with that of four energy-economic models that have provided detailed analyses of European climate change policy. In the absence of specific additional climate policy measures, the EPPA reference projections of carbon emissions increase by 14% from 1990 levels. The EU-wide target under the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change is a reduction in emissions to 8% below 1990 levels. EPPA emissions projections are similar to other recent modeling results, but there are underlying differences in energy and carbon intensities among the projections. If EU countries were to individually meet the EU allocation of the Community-wide carbon cap specified in the Kyoto Protocol, we find using EPPA that carbon prices vary from $91 in the United Kingdom to $385 in Denmark; welfare costs range from 0.6% to 5%.001D06A01B001D06A01A230Politique énergétique01Energy policy01Política energética01Politique environnement02Environmental policy02Política medio ambiente02Lutte antipollution03Pollution control03Lucha anticontaminación03Prévention pollution04Pollution prevention04Prevención polución04Pollution air05Air pollution05Contaminación aire05Emission polluant06Pollutant emission06Emisión contaminante06Carbone dioxydeNKFX07Carbon dioxideNKFX07Carbono dióxidoNKFX07Répartition par secteur08Distribution by activities08Repartición por sector08Répartition géographique09Geographic distribution09Distribución geográfica09Prévision10Forecasting10Previsión10Moyen terme11Medium term11Término medio11Long terme12Long term12Largo plazo12Analyse coût13Cost analysis13Análisis costo13Coût marginal14Marginal cost14Coste marginal14Impact économique15Economic impact15Impacto económico15PIB16Gross domestic product16PIB16Bien être économique17Welfare17Bienestar económico17Simulation18Simulation18Simulación18Modèle équilibre général19General equilibrium model19Modelo equilibrio general19Modèle économétrique20Econometric model20Modelo econométrico20Etude comparative21Comparative study21Estudio comparativo21Union européenne22European Union22Unión Europea22Modèle EPPAINC72Modèle POLESINC73Modèle PRIMESINC74Modèle WEPSINC75Modèle GTEMINC76076PSI 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy313Economic assessment of combined cycle gas turbines in Australia. Some effects of microeconomic reform and technological changeNAUGHTEN (Barry)Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Industries Brance, ABARE, Box 1563Canberra ACT 2601AUS1 aut.225-2452003ENGINIST164173540001068328300200000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.40 ref.03-0138499PAEnergy policyGBRAustralian electricity markets and natural gas markets are undergoing rapid reform. Choosing among electricity generation modes is a key issue. Such choices are affected by expectations about the future structure of these markets and future technologies, and how they affect costs and emissions. In the research reported in this paper, the MARKAL model of the Australian energy system is used to evaluate the competitive position of natural gas fired combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) in the energy sector as a whole. Competing in the sector are large-scale electricity generation technologies such as refurbished existing coal fired stations and advanced forms of coal fired generation. The modelling incorporates new data on electricity supply technologies and options.001D06A01A001D06A01C4230Economie énergie01Energy economy01Economía energía01Production énergie électrique02Electric power production02Producción energía eléctrica02Répartition par source03Distribution by sources03Repartición por fuente03Prévision04Forecasting04Previsión04Moyen terme05Medium term05Término medio05Etude comparative06Comparative study06Estudio comparativo06Compétitivité07Competitiveness07Competitividad07CharbonFX08CoalFX08CarbónFX08Gaz naturel09Natural gas09Gas natural09Centrale charbon10Coal power plant10Central carbón10Centrale cycle combiné11Combined cycle power plant11Central ciclo combinado11Turbine gaz12Gas turbine12Turbina gas12Long terme15Long term15Largo plazo15Scénario16Script16Argumento16Investissement17Investment17Inversión17Capacité production18Production capacity18Capacidad producción18Productivité19Productivity19Productividad19Diminution coût20Cost lowering20Reducción costo20Coût production21Production cost21Coste producción21Coût énergie22Energy cost22Coste energía22Simulation23Simulation23Simulación23Modèle économétrique24Econometric model24Modelo econométrico24Optimisation économique25Economic optimization25Optimización económica25Minimisation coût26Cost minimization26Minimización costo26AustralieNG27AustraliaNG27AustraliaNG27Modèle MARKALINC721975-1995INC73OcéanieNGOceaniaNGOceaniaNG076PSI 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy313China's rural electrification and poverty reductionMING YANGEnergy Economics and Technology (EET), 12 Kiah StreetGlen Waverley 3150, Vic.AUS1 aut.283-2952003ENGINIST164173540001068328300600000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.9 ref.03-0138346PAEnergy policyGBRThis paper aims at quantifying the impact of rural investment in power sector on the rural economic development and poverty reduction in China. An econometric model was developed and six Chinese provinces with different economic background are studied. These provinces comprise Jiangsu and Liaoning with well-developed rural economy, Hebei and Henan with medium-developed rural economy, and Shannxi and Xinjiang with the least-developed rural economy. Over 20-yr historical data for the six provincial rural areas, was collected in rural economic development, households, population, per capita income, community infrastructure development, capital investment, electricity consumption, output values in agriculture sector, and township and village enterprises. SPSS V10.0 software program was used in the research. This paper concludes that priority of capital investment in rural power sector should be given to Jiangsu and Liaoning if the objective of the investment is to develop rural economy, and that the priority should be given to Hebei and Henan if the objective is to reduce poverty in rural area.001D06A01B001D06A01C4230Politique énergétique01Energy policy01Política energética01Politique économique02Economic policy02Política económica02Electrification03Electrification03Electrificación03Zone rurale04Rural area04Zona rural04Echelon régional05Regional scope05Escalón regional05Consommation électricité06Electric power consumption06Consumo electricidad06Secteur secondaire07Secondary sector07Sector secundario07Secteur domestique08Residential sector08Sector doméstico08Investissement09Investment09Inversión09Impact économique10Economic impact10Impacto económico10Développement économique11Economic development11Desarrollo económico11Pauvreté12Poverty12Pobreza12Revenu individuel13Personal income13Renta personal13Simulation14Simulation14Simulación14Analyse régression15Regression analysis15Análisis regresión15Modèle économétrique16Econometric model16Modelo econométrico16ChineNG17ChinaNG17ChinaNG17JiangsuINC72LiaoningINC73HebeiINC74HenanINC75ShannxiINC76XinjiangINC77Programme SPSS V10.0INC78AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG076PSI 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1121Parental bereavement: heterogeneous impacts of AIDS in ThailandWACHTER (Kenneth W.)KNODEL (John E.)VANLANDINGHAM (Mark)Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, 2232 Piedmont AvenueBerkeley, CA 94720-2120USA1 aut.Population Studies Center University of MichiganAnn Arbor, MI 48104USA2 aut.School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane UniversityNew Orleans, LA 70112USA3 aut.193-2062003ENGINIST164603540001067089200500000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/403-0111799PAJournal of econometricsNLDOver the coming decades in Thailand, aging parents whose adult children sicken with AIDS will bear burdens of caregiving and loss. Using demographic microsimulation, we show that the new, lower projections of the HIV/AIDS epidemic still imply that 8% of Thais over the age of 50 in 1995 will lose one or more children to AIDS before their own deaths. The proportion of all losses which are multiple losses can vary from 12% to 33% under a range of assumptions about plausible family-to-family heterogeneity in risks of infection.001A02H02N4001A02H02N2Econométrie01Econometrics01Econometría01Méthode statistique02Statistical method02Método estadístico02SIDA03AIDS03SIDA03ThaïlandeNG04ThailandNG04TailandiaNG04Effet hétérogène05Heterogeneous effects05Démographie06Demography06Demografía06Epidémie07Epidemic07Epidemia07Science médicale08Medical science08Ciencia Medica08MicrosimulationCD96MicrosimulationCD96Perte parentaleCD97Parental bereavementCD97Enfant adulteCD98Adult childrenCD98ViroseViral diseaseVirosisInfectionInfectionInfecciónAsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG062 0965-8564Transp. res., Part A Policy pract.371Access to and competition between airports: a case study for the San Francisco Bay areaPELS (Eric)NIJKAMP (Peter)RIETVELD (Piet)Department of Regional Economics, Free University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 11051081 HV AmsterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.71-832003ENGINIST12377A3540001071964000400000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.11 ref.03-0096130PECATransportation research. Part A, Policy and practiceGBRIn this paper (nested) logit models that describe the combined access mode-airport-choice are estimated. A three level nested logit model is rejected. A two level nested logit model with the airport choice at the top level and the access mode choice at the lower level is preferred. From the estimation results, it is concluded that business travelers have a higher value of time than leisure travelers. In the (conditional) access mode choice, leisure travelers have a higher access cost elasticity (in absolute value), while business travelers have a higher access time elasticity (in absolute value). In general, access time is of large importance in the competition between airports in a region.001D15B001D15IEconomie transport01Economy of transports01Economía transporte01Concurrence économique02Competition(economy)02Concurrencia económica02Aéroport03Airport03Aeropuerto03Etude cas04Case study04Estudio caso04CalifornieNG05CaliforniaNG05CaliforniaNG05Simulation numérique06Numerical simulation06Simulación numérica06Modèle logit07Logit model07Modelo logit07Modèle économétrique08Econometric model08Modelo econométrico08Enquête opinion09Opinion inquiry09Encuesta opinión09Critère décision10Decision criterion10Criterio decisión10Elasticité11Elasticity11Elasticidad11Accessibilité12Accessibility12Accesibilidad12Durée trajet13Travel time13Duración trayecto13Analyse coût14Cost analysis14Análisis costo14Modèle choix discretINC72Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG055PSI 0041-0683TENCA4Traffic eng. control436Evaluating the environmental impact of traffic calmingGROSSO (Sergio)WRIGHT (Steve)BELL (Michael G. H.)University of Newcastle upon TypeGBR1 aut.2 aut.Imperial College of Science, Technology and MedicineGBR3 aut.238-2432002ENGINIST137293540001065218900700000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.34 ref.03-0078425PATraffic engineering & controlGBRThis paper demonstrates the use of the microscopic simulator VISSIM (PTV AG) to assess traffic calming schemes. The test site chosen is Sherbum-in-Elmet in Yorkshire, where traffic calming measures were planned and a public consuitation held at the end of 1999. Through the EnvPro program, developed by PTV AG in collaboration with the Transport Operations Research Group (TORG) of the University of Newcastle upon Tyne, estimates of noise and pollution were generated from step-by-step information on position, speed, and acceleration as output by VISSIM. The paper illustrates two important features of microsimulation that make it appealing for analysing the impact of traffic calming: a more comprehensive representation of speed profiles and 3D visualisation of the traffic scene. The 'trial and error' approach to traffic management is wasteful when resources are scarce. As this paper shows, the effects of speed reduction on vehicle emissions and noise can be contradictory, so a thorough analysis of the options and outcomes should be undertaken when proposals are evaluated.001D15C001D15B001D14O05295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Gestion trafic02Traffic management02Gestión tráfico02Limitation vitesse03Speed limit03Limitación velocidad03Evaluation projet04Project evaluation04Evaluación proyecto04Impact environnement05Environment impact05Impacto medio ambiente05Simulateur06Simulator06Simulador06Royaume UniNG07United KingdomNG07Reino UnidoNG07Modélisation08Modeling08Modelización08Nuisance acoustique09Noise pollution09Nocividad acústica09Bruit trafic10Traffic noise10Ruido tráfico10Sécurité trafic11Traffic safety11Seguridad tráfico11Prévention accident12Accident prevention12Prevención accidente12Régulation trafic13Traffic control13Regulación tráfico13Pollution14Pollution14Polución14Représentation tridimensionnelle15Three dimensional representation15Representación tridimensional15EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG041PSI 0968-090XTransp. res., Part C Emerg. technol.105-6Using BDI agents to improve driver modelling in a commuter scenarioIntelligent agents in traffic and transportationROSSETTI (Rosaldo J. F.)BORDINI (Rafael H.)BAZZAN (Ana L. C.)BAMPI (Sergio)RONGHUI LIUVAN VLIET (Dirck)SCHLEIFFER (Ralf)ed.Instituto de Informática, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Av. Bento Gonçalves 9500, CP 1506491501-970, Porto Alegre-RSBRA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.Institute for Transport Studies, University of LeedsLeeds LS2 9JTGBR5 aut.6 aut.German Aerospace Center, Transport Research, Porz-Wahnheide, Linde Hoehe51147 CologneDEU1 aut.373-3982002ENGINIST12377C3540001068745800400000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.24 ref.03-0070493PATransportation research. Part C, Emerging technologiesGBRThe use of multi-agent systems to model and to simulate real systems consisting of intelligent entities capable of autonomously co-operating with each other has emerged as an important field of research. This has been applied to a variety of areas, such as social sciences, engineering, and mathematical and physical theories. In this work, we address the complex task of modelling drivers' behaviour through the use of agent-based techniques. Contemporary traffic systems have experienced considerable changes in the last few years, and the rapid growth of urban areas has challenged scientific and technical communities. Influencing drivers' behaviour appears as an alternative to traditional approaches to cope with the potential problem of traffic congestion, such as the physical modification of road infrastructures and the improvement of control systems. It arises as one of the underlying ideas of intelligent transportation systems. In order to offer a good means to evaluate the impact that exogenous information may exert on drivers' decision making, we propose an extension to an existing microscopic simulation model called Dynamic Route Assignment Combining User Learning and microsimulAtion (DRACULA). In this extension, the traffic domain is viewed as a multi-agent world and drivers are endowed with mental attitudes, which allow rational decisions about route choice and departure time. This work is divided into two main parts. The first part describes the original DRACULA framework and the extension proposed to support our agent-based traffic model. The second part is concerned with the reasoning mechanism of drivers modelled by means of a Beliefs, Desires, and Intentions (BDI) architecture. In this part, we use AgentSpeak(L) to specify commuter scenarios and special emphasis is given to departure time and route choices. This paper contributes in that respect by showing a practical way of representing and assessing drivers' behaviour and the adequacy of using AgentSpeak(L) as a modelling language, as it provides clear and elegant specifications of BDI agents.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Système intelligent02Intelligent system02Sistema inteligente02Système transport03Transportation system03Sistema de transporte03Simulation numérique04Numerical simulation04Simulación numérica04Système multiagent05Multiagent system05Sistema multiagente05Scénario06Script06Argumento06Prise décision07Decision making07Toma decision07Conduite véhicule08Vehicle driving08Conducción vehículo08Itinéraire09Route09Itinerario09Architecture système10System architecture10Arquitectura sistema10Modèle microscopique11Microscopic model11Modelo microscópico11Système information12Information system12Sistema información12DRACULAINC72041PSI 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1092External bootstrap tests for parameter stabilityDELGADO (Miguel A.)FITENI (Inmaculada)Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Madrid 126-12828903 GETAFE MadridESP1 aut.2 aut.275-3032002ENGINIST164603540001044301900300000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/403-0062953PAJournal of econometricsNLDThis article considers tests for parameter stability over time in general econometric models, possibly nonlinear-in-variables. Existing test statistics are commonly not asymptotically pivotal under nonstandard conditions. In such cases, the external bootstrap tests proposed in this paper are appealing from a practical viewpoint. We propose to use bootstrap versions of the asymptotic critical values based on a first-order asymptotic expansion of the test statistics under the null hypothesis, which consists of a linear transformation of the unobserved &dquot;innovations&dquot; partial sum process. The nature of these transformations under nonstandard conditions is discussed for the main testing principles. Also, we investigate the small sample performance of the proposed bootstrap tests by means of a small Monte Carlo experiment.001A02H02N2001A02H02G001A02H02H001A02H02IMéthode jackknife01Jackknife method01Método jackknife01Méthode rééchantillonnage02Resampling method02Sciences économiques03Economics03Ciencias económicas03Econométrie04Econometrics04Econometría04Comportement asymptotique05Asymptotic behavior05Comportamiento asintótico05Estimation statistique06Statistical estimation06Estimación estadística06Estimation non paramétrique07Non parametric estimation07Estimación no paramétrica07Analyse multivariable08Multivariate analysis08Análisis multivariable08Distribution statistique09Statistical distribution09Distribución estadística09Théorie approximation10Approximation theory10Processus empirique11Empirical process11Proceso empírico11Bootstrap12Bootstrap12Bootstrap12Stabilité13Stability13Estabilidad13Test statistique14Statistical test14Test estadístico14Simulation15Simulation15Simulación15Méthode Monte Carlo16Monte Carlo method16Método Monte Carlo16Somme partielle17Partial sum17Suma parcial17Petit échantillon19Small sample19Pequeña muestra19Fonction poids21Weight function21Función peso21Test Cramer von Mises22Cramer von Mises test22Test Cramer von Mises22Valeur propre23Eigenvalue23Valor propio23Test Wald24Wald test24Test Wald24Transformation linéaire25Linear transformation25Transformación lineal25Processus innovation59Innovation process59Proceso innovación59Modèle économétrique61Econometric model61Modelo econométrico61Modèle non linéaire62Non linear model62Modelo no lineal62Méthode statistique63Statistical method63Método estadístico63Approximation asymptotique64Asymptotic approximation64Aproximación asintótica64Valeur critique65Critical value65Valor crítico65Développement asymptotique66Asymptotic expansion66Desarrollo asintótico66Test hypothèse67Hypothesis test67Test hipótesis6762F40INC7062P20INC7162F05INC7262F03INC7362G10INC7462H15INC7562E17INC76Estimation paramétriqueINC77Développement mathématiqueCD96Mathematical expansionCD96Stabilité structurelleCD97Structural stabilityCD97034 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1092Superconsistent estimation and inference in structural econometric models using extreme order statisticsDONALD (Stephen G.)PAARSCH (Harry J.)Department of Economics, University of TexasTX 78712USA1 aut.Department of Economics, University of Iowalowa City, IA 52242-1000USA2 aut.305-3402002ENGINIST164603540001044301900400000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.23 ref.03-0062549PAJournal of econometricsNLDData-generating processes whose distributions' supports depend on unknown parameters arise naturally in empirical applications. In such situations the maximum-likelihood estimator is often difficult to calculate and usually has a nonstandard limiting distribution that depends on nuisance parameters. We propose an alternative estimation strategy that is typically simpler to implement than the likelihood approach and allows one to conduct inference using simulation methods. Our proposed estimators are based on the analog estimation principle and bear a striking resemblance to generalized method-of-moments estimators, although here the estimators are generally parameter consistent at rate T rather than the usual rate .001A02H02F001A02H02N2Sciences économiques01Economics01Ciencias económicas01Econométrie02Econometrics02Econometría02Distribution statistique03Statistical distribution03Distribución estadística03Théorie approximation04Approximation theory04Maximum vraisemblance05Maximum likelihood05Maxima verosimilitud05Consistance07Consistency07Consistencia07Méthode moment17Moment method17Método momento17Moment statistique18Statistical moment18Momento estadístico18Estimateur convergent19Consistent estimator19Estimador convergente19Fonction vraisemblance59Likelihood function59Función verosimilitud59Estimation statistique60Statistical estimation60Estimación estadística60Modèle structure61Structural model61Modelo estructura61Modèle économétrique62Econometric model62Modelo econométrico62Méthode statistique63Statistical method63Método estadístico63Fonction répartition64Distribution function64Función distribución64Loi limite66Limit distribution66Ley límite66Paramètre nuisance67Nuisance parameter67Parámetro daño67Implémentation68Implementation68Ejecución6862P20INC7062E17INC71034 1360-4015J. Chart. Inst. Water Environ. Manag.164Domestic Water demand forecasting: A static microsimulation approachWILLIAMSON (P.)MITCHELL (G.)MCDONALD (A. T.)Department of Geography, University of LiverpoolGBR1 aut.School of Geography, University of LeedsLeedsGBR2 aut.3 aut.243-2482002ENGINIST10423540001067896000100000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.28 ref.03-0034303PAJournal of the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental ManagementGBRPlanning the provision of a future water supply depends upon forecasts of likely demand. Existing forecasting techniques suffer from a lack of spatially relevant information on likely trends in the micro-components of demand. At a sub-regional level, current approaches also understate between-area variability. A static micro-simulation model is described, which makes more efficient use of existing data in producing forecasts of domestic water consumption. Spatially detailed synthetic microdata are reweighted towards level population estimates which are derived from official Government population projections. A 30% increase in domestic consumption between 1991 and 2025 is forecast for the Yorkshire Water region, three-quarters of which is attributable to changes in consumer behaviour.001D16A02001D14J01295Eau potable01Drinking water01Agua potable01Approvisionnement eau02Water supply02Alimentación agua02Eau ménagère03Domestic water03Agua residual03Demande04Demand04Petición04Prévision05Forecasting05Previsión05Royaume UniNG06United KingdomNG06Reino UnidoNG06Consommation eau07Water consumption07Consumo agua07Modélisation08Modeling08Modelización08Simulation09Simulation09Simulación09EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG020PSI 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1091Quantile regression under random censoringHONORE (Bo)KHAN (Shakeeb)POWELL (James L.)Department of Economics, Princeton UniversityPrinceton, NJ 08544-1021USA1 aut.Department of Economics, University of RochesterRochester, NY 14627USA2 aut.Department of Economics, University of CaliforniaBerkeley, CA 94720-3880USA3 aut.67-1052002ENGINIST164603540001009663500300000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.2 p.1/403-0014073PAJournal of econometricsNLDCensored regression models have received a great deal of attention in both the theoretical and applied econometric literature. Most of the existing estimation procedures for either cross-sectional or panel data models are designed only for models with fixed censoring. In this paper, a new procedure for adapting these estimators designed for fixed censoring to models with random censoring is proposed. This procedure is then applied to the CLAD and quantile estimators of Powell (J. Econom. 25 (1984) 303, 32 (1986a) 143) to obtain an estimator of the coefficients under a mild conditional quantile restriction on the error term that is applicable to samples exhibiting fixed or random censoring. The resulting estimator is shown to have desirable asymptotic properties, and performs well in a small-scale simulation study.001A02H02JRégression01Regression01Regresión01Quantile02Quantile02Cuantila02Donnée censurée03Censored data03Estimateur Kaplan Meier04Kaplan Meier estimator04Estimador Kaplan Meier04Analyse dommage05Failure analysis05Análisis avería05Temps06Time06Tiempo06Taux défaillance07Failure rate07Porcentaje falla07Censure08Censorship08Censura08Fonction survie09Survival function09Función sobrevivencia09Minimisation10Minimization10Minimización10Régularité11Regularity11Regularidad11Convergence uniforme12Uniform convergence12Convergencia uniforme12Equation estimatrice13Estimating equation13Ecuación de estimación13Grand échantillon14Large sample14Méthode Monte Carlo15Monte Carlo method15Método Monte Carlo15Simulation16Simulation16Simulación16Echelle petite17Small scale17Escala pequeña17Matrice covariance18Covariance matrix18Matriz covariancia18Estimation erreur59Error estimation59Estimación error59Régression statistique61Statistical regression61Regresión estadística61Caractère aléatoire62Randomness62Echantillon censuré63Censored sample63Muestra censurada63Modèle régression64Regression model64Modelo regresión64Modèle économétrique65Econometric model65Modelo econométrico65Econométrie66Econometrics66Econometría66Estimation statistique67Statistical estimation67Estimación estadística67Modèle donnée68Data models6862N01INC7062P20INC71Estimateur quantileCD96Quantile estimatorCD96001 0012-9682ECMTA7Econometrica701Determining the number of factors in approximate factor modelsJUSHAN BAING (Serena)Dept. of Economics, Boston CollegeChestnut Hill, MA 02467USA1 aut.Dept. of Economics, Johns Hopkins UniversityBaltimore, MD 21218USA2 aut.191-2212002ENGINIST20693540001002331600600000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/403-0013898PAEconometricaUSAIn this paper we develop some econometric theory for factor models of large dimensions. The focus is the determination of the number of factors (r), which is an unresolved issue in the rapidly growing literature on multifactor models. We first establish the convergence rate for the factor estimates that will allow for consistent estimation of r. We then propose some panel criteria and show that the number of factors can be consistently estimated using the criteria. The theory is developed under the framework of large cross-sections (N) and large time dimensions (T). No restriction is imposed on the relation between N and T. Simulations show that the proposed criteria have good finite sample properties in many configurations of the panel data encountered in practice.001A02H02I001A02E18Analyse factorielle01Factor analysis01Análisis factorial01Fixation prix02Pricing02Analyse composante principale03Principal component analysis03Análisis componente principal03Econométrie04Econometrics04Econometría04Théorie05Theory05Teoría05Demande06Demand06Petición06Optimisation07Optimization07Optimización07Simulation08Simulation08Simulación08Théorie approximation60Approximation theory60Modèle économétrique61Econometric model61Modelo econométrico61Grande dimension63Large dimension63Gran dimensión63Convergence64Convergence64Convergencia64Taux convergence65Convergence rate65Relación convergencia65Estimation statistique66Statistical estimation66Estimación estadística66Estimateur convergent67Consistent estimator67Estimador convergente6762P20INC70Echantillon finiCD96Finite sampleCD96Application empiriqueCD97Empirical applicationCD97001 0308-518X3412Microsimulation of neighborhood evacuations in the urban-wildland interfaceCOVA (T.J.)JOHNSON (J.P.)2211-222911 fig., 1 tabl.2002ENGengINIST15583 A820041 ref.531-03-13802PAEnvironment and planning. AGBRThe AA. present a method for using microscopic traffic simulation to develop and test neighborhood evacuation plans in the urban-wildland interface. The method allows an analyst to map the subneighborhood variation in household evacuation travel times under various scenarios. A case study is presented for a controversial fire-prone canyon community east of Salt Lake City. GIS is used to map the spatial effects of a proposed second access road on household evacuation times531123IV531Sécurité56301Security56301Quartier56302Urban district56302Risque56303Risk56303Feu56304Fire56304Transport urbain56305Urban transport56305EvacuationNIINC06Trafic urbain56307Urban traffic56307Simulation56308Simulation56308Choix spatial56309Spatial choice56309U108!04,06,07!09U105!07!08,06,04,09328 1296-2120Doss. solidar. santé2La taxe d'habitation : une analyse des modifications introduites en 2000 à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation INESFUGAZZA (Marco)LE MINEZ (Sylvie)Ministère des Affaires sociales, du travail et de la solidarité, Ministère de la Santé, de la famille et des personnes handicapées, DREESFRA1 aut.2 aut.21-312002FREINIST264653540001087878400200000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.521-03-12088PADossiers solidarité et santéFRAThe dwelling tax : an analysis of the changes introduced with INES microsimulation systemref. et notes dissem.La taxe d'habitation a été réformée en 2000. Cet impôt local est d'abord assis sur la valeur locative des logements. Il est ensuite modulé suivant le revenu et la composition des ménages par des dégrèvements pris en charge par le budget de l'État. Les modifications introduites en 2000 ont simplifié et accru ces dégrèvements, et la taxe nette directement payée par le redevable local est désormais plus faible, et surtout davantage liée au revenu des ménages. Ces allégements sont toutefois compensés par le budget de l'État et l'étude menée ici à l'aide du modèle de simulation INES, qui ne prend pas en compte le mode de financement de cette imposition ne porte que sur les effets directs des modifications de la taxe d'habitation sur les contribuables locaux. Les estimations réalisées font état d'une baisse moyenne de la taxe d'habitation nette de 19 % et de l'instauration d'une meilleure progressivité au regard du niveau de vie des redevables : la taxe d'habitation versée par les ménages passe ainsi en 2000 de 0,1 % des revenus fiscaux dans le premier décile des niveaux de vie à 2 % du sixième au neuvième décile; elle repasse néanmoins à 1,4 % en moyenne dans le dixième décile, la valeur locative du logement, moins progressive, prenant une importance accrue à ces niveaux de revenus52146AXII521Impôt local01Local Taxes01Logement02Accomodation02Fiscalité03Fiscal System03Réforme04Reform04Ménage05Household05Statistiques06Statistics06FranceNG07FranceNG07Taxe d'habitationNIINC31090PSI 1149-1590Rech. previs. : (Paris)66Les modèles socio-économiques de microsimulation : Panorama et état des lieux pour la France : Evaluer les politiques familiales et sociales. MYRIADE, un outil de microsimulation à la CNAFLEGENDRE (Francais)LORGNET (Jean-Paul)THIBAULT (Forence)Laboratoire Erudite (Equipe de recherche sur l'utilisation des données individuelles et temporelles en économie - université Paris-XII) et CNAF - Bureau des PrévisionsFRA1 aut.CNAF - Bureau des PrévisionsFRA2 aut.CNAF - Bureau des Prévisions et Laboratoire CEPN (université Paris-XIII et CNRS)FRA3 aut.11-312001FREINIST229183540001003996500100000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.2 p.1/2521-03-10455PARecherches et prévisions : (Paris)FRASocio-economic models of microsimulation: overview in France : The microsimulationL'objet de cet article est de présenter les modèles socio-économiques de microsimulation. Les auteurs détaillent les principes mis en oeuvre dans ce type d'outil et exposent les principaux modèles existant actuellement en France. Est également passée en revue une sélection de questions qui peuvent être adressées à ces modèles. Le lecteur peut ainsi être en mesure d'apprécier l'état de l'art dans ce domaine et se faire une idée plus précise des avantages et des limites de ces méthodes. Cependant, l'article s'intéresse avant tout aux outils dont l'ambition est de décrire, plus ou moins globalement, le système des prélèvements obligatoires et des transferts sociaux. Ne sont pas évoqués les outils développés pour les besoins de thèmes plus spécifiques tels que l'économie de la santé ou l'économie du droit5218I521Modèle01Model01Informatique02Computer Science02Méthodologie03Methodology03Redistribution04Redistribution04Revenu05Income05Ménage06Household06Classification07Classification07Statistique08Statistics08027PSI 1149-1590Rech. previs. : (Paris)66Explorations autour de l'allocation familiale unique. Substituer une seule prestation aux prestations d'entretien des enfants existantes : Evaluer les politiques familiales et sociales. MYRIADE, un outil de microsimulation à la CNAFLEGENDRE (Francois)LORGNET (Jean-Paul)THIBAULT (Florence)Laboratoire Erudite (Equipe de recherche sur l'utilisation des données individuelles et temporelles en économie - université Paris-XII) et CNAF - Bureau des PrévisionsFRA1 aut.CNAF - Bureau des PrévisionsFRA2 aut.CNAF - Bureau des Prévisions et Laboratoire CEPN (université Paris-XIII et CNRS)FRA3 aut.71-942001FREINIST229183540001003996500400000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.21 ref.521-03-10447PARecherches et prévisions : (Paris)FRAExamination about one family allowance. To sustitute only one social benefit to inexistant children care social benefits : The microsimulationCette étude se propose de fondre les barèmes des cinq allocations d'entretien des enfants (allocations familiales, majorations des allocations familiales, allocation pour jeune enfant, complément familial et allocation de rentrée scolaire) en un barème unique et, en conséquence, de substituer une seule prestation - que l'on appellera « allocation familiale unique » - à toutes celles versées actuellement. Les objectifs de la politique familiale française ne sont cependant pas remis en cause : la question traitée ici est celle de la simplification des barèmes. Certaines singularités de la réglementation actuelle sont toutefois « corrigées ». Les paramètres du nouveau barème sont calculés au moyen d'une méthode d'ajustement économétrique qui permet de limiter les inévitables transferts de prestations qu'engendrerait cette entreprise et de respecter l'enveloppe financière actuellement assignée aux prestations d'entretien. La mise en place de l'allocation familiale unique coûterait- pour n'occasionner aucun perdant - 525 millions d'euros la première année. Le coût des prestations d'entretien augmenterait de 45 millions d'euros et le montant de l'allocation compensatrice, versée aux familles qui perdraient à la réforme, s'élèverait à 480 millions d'euros.52163XV521Allocations familiales01Family allowance01Politique familiale02Family Policy02Prestation sociale03Social Allowance03Famille04Family04Revenu05Income05Redistribution06Redistribution06Sociologie de la famille07Sociology of family07027PSI 1149-1590Rech. previs. : (Paris)66La redistribution au bénéfice des familles : l'apport du modèle MYRIADE : Evaluer les politiques familiales et sociales. MYRIADE, un outil de microsimulation à la CNAFLEGENDRE (Francois)LORGNET (Jean-Paul)THIBAULT (Florence)Laboratoire Erudite (Equipe de recherche sur l'utilisation des données individuelles et temporelles en économie - université Paris-XII) et CNAF - Bureau des PrévisionsFRA1 aut.CNAF - Bureau des PrévisionsFRA2 aut.CNAF - Bureau des Prévisions et Laboratoire CEPN (université Paris-XIII et CNRS)FRA3 aut.51-692001FREINIST229183540001003996500300000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.521-03-10446PARecherches et prévisions : (Paris)FRARedistribution for family benefit: support of MYRIADE model : The microsimulationPar les charges qu'elle occasionne, la présence des enfants tend à réduire le niveau de vie des familles. La collectivité compense en partie ces charges par le biais de prestations familiales et/ou de réductions d'impôts. Cette étude, réalisée à partir du modèle de microsimulation MYRIADE, s'attache à décrire ces transferts au bénéfice des familles, sans prétendre traiter de l'adéquation entre ces transferts et les dépenses dues à la présence des enfants. Le champ retenu est large quoique limité aux flux monétaires : les prestations familiales, les allocations logement, les minima sociaux, l'impôt sur le revenu et la taxe d'habitation. Afin de mieux caractériser cette redistribution, une méthodologie particulière a été adoptée. Plutôt que de calculer la différence entre le revenu disponible de chaque famille et son revenu primaire, les auteurs ont isolé la variation du revenu disponible que l'on peut attribuer au benjamin dans chaque famille comptant au moins un enfant de moins de vingt-cinq ans. Cette variation de revenu disponible occasionnée par la présence du benjamin est en moyenne de 200 euros par mois. Elle est par ailleurs largement déterminée par le rang du benjamin et par son âge.52163XV521Prestation sociale01Social Allowance01Simulation02Simulation02Famille03Family03Allocations familiales04Family allowance04Redistribution05Redistribution05Revenu06Income06Sociologie de la famille07Sociology of family07Enfant08Child08027PSI 1149-1590Rech. previs. : (Paris)66MYRIADE : le modèle de microsimulation de la CNAF. Un outil d'évaluation des politiques sociales : Evaluer les politiques familiales et sociales. MYRIADE, un outil de microsimulation à la CNAFLEGENDRE (Francois)LORGNET (Jean-Paul)THIBAULT (Florence)Laboratoire Erudite (Equipe de recherche sur l'utilisation des données individuelles et temporelles en économie - université Paris-XII) et CNAF - Bureau des PrévisionsFRA1 aut.CNAF - Bureau des PrévisionsFRA2 aut.CNAF - Bureau des Prévisions et Laboratoire CEPN (université Paris-XIII et CNRS)FRA3 aut.33-502001FREINIST229183540001003996500200000© 2003 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.18 ref.521-03-10445PARecherches et prévisions : (Paris)FRAMYRIADE: the model of microsimulation of National Fund for Family Allowance. A evaluation tool of social policies : The microsimulationMyriade est le modèle de microsimulation en cours de développement à la Caisse nationale des allocations familiales (CNAF). Avec cet outil, la branche Famille améliore ses possibilités d'études, de prévisions et de chiffrages. En effet, les autres sources statistiques dont elle dispose sont représentatives de la population des allocataires et fournissent une information détaillée pour chacun d'eux. Cependant, ces caractéristiques posent parfois problème, notamment lorsqu'il s'agit d'étudier la mise en place d'une nouvelle prestation ou la modification de la législation dans le sens d'un élargissement du champ des bénéficiaires. MYRIADE évite ces difficultés car il est représentatif de l'ensemble des ménages de la France métropolitaine. L'apport de MYRIADE est de trois ordres : un chiffrage peut être fait en prenant en compte l'ensemble des ménages français ; chaque individu peut être localisé à la fois dans un ménage, un foyer fiscal ou une famille ; MYRIADE permet de distinguer les conséquences fiscales et sociales d'une mesure.5218I521Allocations familiales01Family allowance01Simulation02Simulation02Modèle03Model03Outil04Tool04Méthodologie05Methodology05Fiscalité06Fiscal System06Revenu07Income07Redistribution08Redistribution08027PSI Choix des filières non alimentaires fondés sur la prise en compte d'objectifs économiques hiérarchisés et sur l'utilisation de données agricoles spatialiséesAgence de l'environnement et de la maîtrise de l'énergieParisFRApatr.Institut national de la recherche agronomique. BioclimatologieThiverval-GrignonFRAINRA. Ecophysiologie des plantes fourragèresLusignanFRAINRA. Science du solVersaillesFRAChambre régionale d'agriculture Poitou-Charentes. Agro-transfertMignaloux BeauvoirFRAUniversity of Texas. Department of management scienceAustin TXUSAINRA. Economie et sociologie ruralesThiverval-GrignonFRA1999FREfre18 p.30 cmtabl., graph.ADEME94-01-0060INISTRP 400 (2359)3540001080158800000000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.dissem.02-0599287RMFRASelection of non-food industries based upon hierarchical economic objectives and geographical agricultural dataCe travail est le résultat d'une collaboration : L'INRA Bioclimatologie d'Avignon, l'INRA Ecophysiologie de Lusignan, Agro-Transfert de la Chambre d'agriculture de Poitou-Charentes, le département AGER de l'INA-PG ont montré, en utilisant un système d'information géographique (SIG) qu'il était possible : 1) de repérer les régions françaises les plus favorables à la production d'une culture lignocellulosique donnée. 2) d'estimer pour une région administrative la distribution spatiale des données techniques (rendement) et économiques (charges variables) nécessaires au calcul des coûts d'opportunité par exploitation agricole. L'exercice a été réalisé en prenant l'exemple du sorgho fibre en région Poitou Charentes, pour lequel l'INRA a établi et validé un modèle de production prenant en compte le stress hydrique. Le rendement du Sorgho fibre et sa variabilité ont été estimés par une simulation portant sur une période de 24 ans. Le rendement moyen du sorgho fibre a été estimé à 8,8 tonnes de matière sèche compte tenu d'une récolte précoce, en sec, qui minimise les coûts d'opportunité. L'INRA économie de Grignon a mis au point un modèle d'offre qui grâce aux données précédentes permet des simulations de l'offre de Sorgho au niveau de la région Poitou Charentes. L'offre démarre à un coût d'opportunité de 100 F par tonne de matière sèche (récolte en sec au 1^er Septembre,stockage au champ) pour les exploitations les plus efficientes de Poitou Charentes et atteint son potentiel (100% de la jachère cultivée) pour un coût d'opportunité de 300 F par tonne de matière sèche. L'INRA économie de Grignon a montré l'importance de la notion de surplus économique qui est un critère essentiel pour étudier la rentabilité d'une filière. En particulier, le surplus des producteurs agricoles qui résulte de l'inégale efficacité de la production selon les exploitations, a été calculé. Ce surplus peut justifier 15 à 20% de la défiscalisation dans le cas de l'ester. Cette notion économique doit donc intervenir dans les calculs visant à montrer l'intérêt public des biocarburants au même titre que les externalités. J Bard de l'université A&M du Texas a mis au point une méthode d'optimisation de la répartition des aides de l'Etat entre les filières compte tenu des coûts industriels et des coûts agricoles des ressources dans le cadre d'un fonctionnement imparfait des marchés. Cette optimisation en améliorant l'efficacité économique des aides accordées, réduit d'autant la part des aides à justifier par des externalités environnementales. Ce travail à caractère méthodologique doit être considéré comme un investissement pour les études économiques dont on aura besoin dans le futur où se poseront des problèmes de localisation des productions non alimentaires, de compétition entre biomasses alimentaires et non alimentaires et de choix de technologie.430A02B002A32A04002A32C03A4Aménagement territoireINC01Développement régionalINC02Développement agricoleINC03Développement industrielINC04Industrie agricole05Agricultural industry05Industria agrícola05Production agricoleINC06MéthodologieINC07Aide décision08Decision aid08Ayuda decisión08Problème sélection09Selection problem09Problema selección09Répartition géographique10Geographic distribution10Distribución geográfica10Répartition spatiale11Spatial distribution11Distribución espacial11Système hiérarchisé12Hierarchical system12Sistema jerarquizado12Système information géographique13Geographic information system13Sistema información geográfica13Utilisation information14Information use14Utilización información14Donnée économique15Economic data15Dato económico15Coût productionINC16RendementINC17RentabilitéINC18SurplusINC19Stress hydriqueINC20Modèle économétriqueINC21Fonction productionINC22Plante à fibresINC23SorghumINC24BiocarburantINC25Fibre végétaleINC26LignocelluloseINC27FranceINC28Poitou CharentesINC29Etude économiqueINC30INDUSTRIE NON ALIMENTAIRECD96NON FOOD INDUSTRIESCD96INDUSTRIA NO ALIMENTARIACD96LOCALISATION DES PRODUCTIONSCD98PRODUCTION LOCATIONCD98LOCALIZACION DE LA PRODUCCIONCD98ZONE AGROCLIMATIQUECD99AGROCLIMATIC ZONESCD99ZONAS AGROCLIMATICASCD99AgroclimatologieINC33Economie mathématique34Mathematical economy34Economía matemática34Economie agricoleINC35Economie industrielleINC36Economie marchéINC37Matière premièreINC51Produit agricoleINC52Pays industrialisé59Industrialized country59País industrializado59Zone tempéréeINC60351 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1286Estimating expected price of vehicles in a transportation microsimulation modeling systemMOHAMMADIAN (Abolfazl)MILLER (Eric J.)Dept. of Civil Engineering, California State Univ.Sacramento, CA 95819-6029USA1 aut.Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of Toronto, 35 St. George St.Toronto, ON, M5S 1A4CAN2 aut.537-5412002ENGINIST572E3540001053562400700000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.20 ref.02-0595925PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAMicrosimulation modeling is an emerging approach to activity-based travel forecasting. Household automobile-ownership models are being included in microsimulation travel-demand models more. Implicitly, vehicle price is an important attribute of vehicles in all automobile-ownership models. In order to update prices at each point of time within the simulation, a modeling tool is required to estimate the price of each vehicle at any time. This paper develops a hedonic price model to estimate the expected price of vehicles to be used in a comprehensive urban-transportation modeling system. In this study, the use of a linear hedonic price model was investigated in terms of its application to the market price of automobiles.001D15B001D15CEconomie transport01Economy of transports01Economía transporte01Automobile02Motor car02Automóvil02Simulation numérique03Numerical simulation03Simulación numérica03Modèle microscopique04Microscopic model04Modelo microscópico04Fixation prix05Pricing05Détermination prix06Price determination06Determinación precio06Analyse composante principale07Principal component analysis07Análisis componente principal07351PSI 0041-1612TRNJAETransp. j.412-3Determinants of price reactions to entry in the U.S. airline industryLIN (Jiun-Sheng Chris)DRESNER (Martin)WINDLE (Robert)College of Management, National Taiwan University of Science and TechnologyTaipei, 106TWN1 aut.Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of MarylandCollege Park, Maryland 20742USA2 aut.3 aut.5-222001ENGINIST156383540001020995600100000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.24 ref.02-0582101PATransportation journalUSAAn investigation is conducted of the factors contributing to competitive reactions to entry by incumbent airlines both in the short and longer runs. Using data on 889 incumbent reactions to entry in the U.S. airline industry between 1991 and 1997, we found several factors that have a significant impact on the level of incumbent price cuts in response to entry. They include the size of the entrant's price cut, the number of passengers carried by the new entrant on the route, and the entrant's costs, size, and reputation. The results are useful to airline managers and policymakers since they describe the market and firm characteristics that are most likely to lead to large price cuts by incumbents.001D15I001D15BTransport aérien01Air transportation01Transporte aéreo01Economie transport02Economy of transports02Economía transporte02Etats UnisNG03United StatesNG03Estados UnidosNG03Concurrence économique04Competition(economy)04Concurrencia económica04Pénétration marché05Market penetration05Penetración mercado05Fixation prix06Pricing06Entreprise transport07Transport firm07Empresa transporte07Simulation numérique08Numerical simulation08Simulación numérica08Modèle économétrique09Econometric model09Modelo econométrico09Stratégie entreprise10Firm strategy10Estrategia empresa10Analyse statistique11Statistical analysis11Análisis estadístico11Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG343PSI 1076-0342JITSE4J. infrastruct. syst.83Estimation on regional benefit and optimal level of road capital stockEUIJUNE KIMMYUNGSOO SHINDept. of Urban Planning and Engineering, Yonsei Univ., 134 Shinchon-DongSeodaemun-Gu, Seoul 120-749KOR1 aut.Real Estate Consulting Team, Korea Appraisal Board, 171-2 Samsung-DongKangnam-Gu, Seoul 135-793KOR2 aut.96-1022002ENGINIST262693540001091301100300000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.17 ref.02-0491529PAJournal of infrastructure systemsUSAThis paper measures the regional benefit of road investment in Korea, using the translog cost functions of the manufacturing industry for the four macroregions of Seoul Metropolitan Area, South-Eastern Area, South-Western Area, and Central Area. This paper shows that the road capital contributes significantly to the productivity of the manufacturing industry in the sense that the magnitude of the road capital stock elasticity of the production cost at the national level is - 0.0124. The net social rate of return for all regions is higher than the yield of corporate bonds, which implies that the road capital stock is undersupplied in Korea. The ratio of optimal to actual road capital stock declined from 1986 to 1991, and then increased in all regions except Seoul Metropolitan Area since 1992. In order to generate economic efficiency and regional equality, it is necessary to increase road capital investment in the less developed regions of Korea, such as the South-Western Area and the Central Area.001D14O03A001D14B295Construction routière01Road construction01Construcción carretera01Route02Highway02Carretera02Economie construction03Building economy03Economía construcción03Investissement04Investment04Inversión04Impact économique05Economic impact05Impacto económico05Fonction coût06Cost function06Función coste06Développement régional07Regional development07Desarrollo regional07Productivité08Productivity08Productividad08Produit manufacturé09Manufactured product09Producto manufacturado09Industrie10Industry10Industria10Simulation numérique11Numerical simulation11Simulación numérica11Modèle économétrique12Econometric model12Modelo econométrico12Corée du SudNG13South KoreaNG13Corea del surNG13CoréeNGKoreaNGCoreaNGAsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG287PSI 0042-9686BWHOA6Bull. W. H. O.805Can ivermectin mass treatments eliminate onchocerciasis in Africa?WINNEN (M.)PLAISIER (A. P.)ALLEY (E. S.)NAGELKERKE (N. J. D.)VAN OORTMARSSEN (G.)BOATIN (B. A.)HABBEMA (J. D. F.)Department of Public Health, Erasmas University, PO Box 17383000DR RotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.4 aut.5 aut.7 aut.Onchocerciasis Control Programme, World Health Organization, BP 549OuagadougouBFA3 aut.6 aut.384-3902002ENGfrespaINIST4905A3540001081984600700000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.27 ref.02-0458535PABulletin of the World Health OrganizationINTObjectif Déterminer les conditions dans lesquelles le traitement de masse par l'ivermectine réduit suffisamment la transmission d'Onchocerca volvulus pour éliminer l'infection dans une communauté d'Afrique Méthodes ONCHOSIM, un modèle de microsimulation de la transmission de l'onchocercose, a été utilisé pour explorer les répercussions de différents intervalles de traitement, taux de couverture et niveaux d'endémicité avant traitement sur la probabilité d'une élimination de l'infection. Résultats Les simulations ont indiqué que des stratégies de lutte reposant exclusivement sur le e traitement de masse par l'ivermectine pouvaient éliminer l'onchocercose. La durée de traitement nécessaire pour éliminer l'infection dépendait largement du programme appliqué et du niveau d'endémicité avant traitement. Dans les régions ayant un taux d'infection moyen à élevé, des traitements de masse annuels avec un taux de couverture de 65 % pendant 25 ans étaient nécessaires. D'après les prévisions du modèle, des traitements répétés pendant plus de 35 ans seraient nécessaires en cas d'hétérogénéité marquée de l'expositior de la population aux piqûres d'insectes vecteurs et donc de variation importante des numérations de microfilaires au niveau de l'individu. Si les intervalles de traitement étaient de 6 mois au lieu de 12, la durée totale du programme pourrait être divisée par deux au moins et 'élimination pourrait être réalisée dans des régions d'hyperendémicité, à condition que l'effet de chaque traitement soit le même qu'en cas de traitement annuel. Il était toutefois douteux qu'un taux élevé de couverture puisse être maintenu assez longtemps pour atteindre l'éradication mondiale. Conclusion L'élimination de l'onchocercose dans la plupart des foyers d'endémie en Afrique semble possible. Toutefois, les exigences en termes de durée, de couverture et de fréquence du traitement peuvent être prohibitives dans les régions de forte endémicité.002B02S06235Onchocercose01Onchocerciasis01Oncocercosis01Homme02Human02Hombre02Traitement03Treatment03Tratamiento03IvermectineNKFRFF04IvermectinNKFRFF04IvermectinaNKFRFF04Chimiothérapie05Chemotherapy05Quimioterapia05Campagne de masse06Mass campaign06Campaña de población06Lutte sanitaire07Sanitary control07Lucha sanitaria07Epidémiologie08Epidemiology08Epidemiología08AfriqueNG09AfricaNG09AfricaNG09Antiparasitaire10Parasiticid10Antiparasitario10AntihelminthiqueINC86FilarioseFilariosisFilariosisNématodoseNematode diseaseNematodosisHelminthiaseHelminthiasisHelmintiasisParasitoseParasitosisParasitosisInfectionInfectionInfecciónPeau pathologie37Skin disease37Piel patología37Oeil pathologie38Eye disease38Ojo patología38266PSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1777Transportation planning and TRANSIMS microsimulation model: Preparing for the transitionPassenger travel demand forecasting, planning applications, and statewide multimodal planningRILETT (L. R.)Department of Civil Engineering and Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University SystemCollege Station, TX 77843USA1 aut.Transportation Research BoardWashington, DCUSApatr.84-922001ENGINIST10459B3540001079604400900000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.16 ref.02-0447264PCATransportation research recordUSAThe Transportation Analysis and Simulation System (TRANSIMS) was developed as a replacement for the four-step travel demand model. The goal was to provide a simulation system that could analyze issues facing transportation planners such as sustainable development, environmental impacts of proposed projects, and intelligent transportation systems deployment. Because TRANSIMS represents a significant shift from the current state of the practice, the transportation planning community will need to spend significant human and capital resources preparing for the transition. Some insight into these transitional issues is provided on the basis of lessons learned from research on actual calibrated transportation networks in Texas. An overview of TRANSIMS in terms of its main components along with a brief comparison with the four-step model are supplied, followed by a discussion of the data requirements with specific reference to the current data needs associated with the four-step model. The challenges inherent in converting databases that have been developed for four-step models are also discussed on the basis of the conversion of existing traffic network files. Next, the TRANSIMS traffic flow theory is described, and the challenges for transportation planners are illustrated using calibrated networks from two highway corridors in Houston, Texas, and one diamond interchange network in College Station, Texas. Last, the capabilities of TRANSIMS with respect to output analysis are described.001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Planification02Planning02Planificación02Système transport03Transportation system03Sistema de transporte03Simulation numérique04Numerical simulation04Simulación numérica04Modèle microscopique05Microscopic model05Modelo microscópico05Demande transport06Transport demand06Demanda transporte06Expérience07Experience07Experiencia07Etalonnage08Calibration08Contraste08Ecoulement trafic09Traffic flow09Flujo tráfico09Théorie10Theory10Teoría10Signalisation11Signalling11Señalización11Distribution vitesse12Velocity distribution12Distribución velocidad12TexasNG13TexasNG13TexasNG13Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15TRANSIMSINC72Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG259PSIAnnual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board80Washington, DC USA2001-01-07 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1777Development of microsimulation activity-based model for San Francisco: Destination and mode choice modelsPassenger travel demand forecasting, planning applications, and statewide multimodal planningJONNALAGADDA (Nageswar)FREEDMAN (Joel)DAVIDSON (William A.)HUNT (J. D.)3Plex.com, 1001 Massachusetts AvenueCambridge, MA 02138USA1 aut.PBConsult, 400 SW Sixth Avenue, Suite 802Portland, OR 97204USA2 aut.PBConsult, 303 Second Street, Suite 700 NorthSan Francisco, CA 94107USA3 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NWCalgary, Alberta T2N 1N4CAN4 aut.Transportation Research BoardWashington, DCUSApatr.25-352001ENGINIST10459B3540001079604400300000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.6 ref.02-0447262PCATransportation research recordUSAA tour-based microsimulation approach to modeling destination choice and mode choice of San Francisco residents is presented. These models were developed as part of an overall tour-based travel demand forecasting model (SF model) for the San Francisco County Transportation Authority to provide detailed forecasts of travel demand for various planning applications. The models described represent two of the nine primary components of the SF model. Both model components consist of multiple logit choice models and include both tour-level models (which refer to the primary activity of the tour) and trip-level models (other activities on the tour). A separate model was estimated for each tour purpose, including work, school, other, and work-based. The destination choice models combine the trip attraction and trip distribution components of the traditional four-step process and use a multinomial logit specification. The mode choice models utilize a nested logit formulation to capture the similarities among sets of similar modes. The two models are linked by incorporating the mode choice utility logsum in the destination choice models; the result is equivalent to a nested structure with a mode choice nest under destination choice. It is demonstrated that the microsimulation approach easily allows the inclusion of a number of key variables in destination and mode choice models that have a significant explanatory power compared with those in traditional models. It is also shown that this approach allows estimation of the effects of tour characteristics on the choice of destination and mode using widely available data and estimation procedures.001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Simulation numérique02Numerical simulation02Simulación numérica02Activité03Activity03Actividad03Modèle microscopique04Microscopic model04Modelo microscópico04Modèle origine destination05Origin destination model05Modelo origen destinación05Choix modal06Modal choice06Elección modal06Tour itinéraire07Tour07Vuelta07Demande transport08Transport demand08Demanda transporte08Planification09Planning09Planificación09Etude cas10Case study10Estudio caso10CalifornieNG11CaliforniaNG11CaliforniaNG11Modèle logit12Logit model12Modelo logit12Trajet domicile travail13Travel to work13Trayecto domicilio trabajo13Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG259PSIAnnual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board80Washington, DC USA2001-01-07 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1777Comprehensive activity travel pattern modeling system for nonworkers with empirical focus on organization of activity episodesPassenger travel demand forecasting, planning applications, and statewide multimodal planningBHAT (Chandra)MISRA (Rajul)Department of Civil Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, ECJ 6.806Austin, TX 78712USA1 aut.2 aut.Transportation Research BoardWashington, DCUSApatr.16-242001ENGINIST10459B3540001079604400200000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.27 ref.02-0446719PCATransportation research recordUSAA comprehensive continuous-time framework is proposed for representation and analysis of the activity travel choices of nonworkers. An econometric formulation is also presented for one component of the comprehensive framework that focuses on the organization of activities in the nonworker's daily activity travel pattern. In conclusion, an empirical analysis using activity travel data from the 1990 San Francisco Bay Area travel diary survey is discussed.001D15B001D15ATransports01Transportation01Transportes01Mobilité02Mobility02Movilidad02Activité03Activity03Actividad03Simulation numérique04Numerical simulation04Simulación numérica04Modèle économétrique05Econometric model05Modelo econométrico05Critère décision06Decision criterion06Criterio decisión06Itinéraire07Route07Itinerario07Formule mathématique08Mathematical formula08Fórmula matemática08Etude cas09Case study09Estudio caso09CalifornieNG10CaliforniaNG10CaliforniaNG10Méthode empirique11Empirical method11Método empírico11Estimation paramètre12Parameter estimation12Estimación parámetro12Modèle Markov13Markov model13Modelo Markov13Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG259PSIAnnual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board80Washington, DC USA2001-01-07 0378-4754MCSIDRMath. comput. simul.591-3Statistical inference in micro-simulation models: incorporating external informationSelected Papers of the MSSANZ/IMACS 13th Biennial Conference on Modelling and Simulation, Hamilton, New Zealand, December 1999KLEVMARKEN (N. Anders)MCALEER (Michael)ed.OXLEY (Les)ed.Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P.O. Box 51375120 UppsalaSWE1 aut.Department of Economics, Waikato Management School, University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105HamiltonNZL1 aut.2 aut.Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand (MSSANZ)INCpatr.255-2652002ENGINIST13313540001012648102500000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.13 ref.02-0431139PCAMathematics and computers in simulationNLDIn practical applications of micro-simulation models (MSMs), very little is usually known about the properties of the simulated values. This paper argues that we need to apply the same rigorous standards for inference in micro-simulation work as in scientific work generally. If not, then MSMs will loose in credibility. Differences between inference in static and dynamic models are noted and then the paper focuses on the estimation of behavioral parameters. There are four themes: calibration viewed as estimation subject to external constraints, piece meal versus system-wide estimation, simulation-based estimation and validation.001D02D06Simulation ordinateur01Computer simulation01Simulación computadora01Simulation02Simulation02Simulación02Validation03Validation03Validación03Alignement04Alignment04Alineamiento04Estimation05Estimation05Estimación05Système dynamique06Dynamical system06Sistema dinámico06Inférence07Inference07Inferencia07Estimation statistique60Statistical estimation60Estimación estadística60Modèle simulation61Simulation model61Modelo simulación61Modèle dynamique62Dynamic model62Modelo dinámico62Estimation paramètre63Parameter estimation63Estimación parámetro63MSMCD96Microsimulation modelCD96Modèle comportementalCD97Behavioral modelCD97252Biennial Conference on Modelling and Simulation13Hamilton NZL1999-12-06 0567-7572566Maximisation of gross margin in intensive livestock productionSecond international symposium on applications of modelling as an innovative technology in the agri-food chain : Palmerston North, 9-13 December 2001MOREL (P. C. H.)ALEXANDER (D. L. J.)SHERRIFF (R. L.)WOOD (G. R.)HERTOG (M.L.A.T.M.)ed.MACKAY (B.R.)ed.Institute of Food, Nutrition and Human Health, Massey UniversityPalmerston NorthNZL1 aut.Institute of Information Sciences and Technology Massey UniversityPalmerston NorthNZL2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.International Society for Horticultural ScienceINCpatr.97-1032001ENG90-6605-755-6INIST159633540000970745700900000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.9 ref.02-0422877PCAActa horticulturaeNLD002A36C03Elevage intensif01Intensive rearing01Cría intensiva01Rentabilité02Profitability02Rentabilidad02Maximisation03Maximization03Maximización03Alimentation animale04Animal feeding04Alimentación animal04Croissance05Growth05Crecimiento05Régime alimentaire06Diet06Régimen alimentario06Formulation07Formulation07Formulación07Optimisation programme08Program optimization08Optimización programa08Aviculture09Poultry farming09Avicultura09Modélisation10Modeling10Modelización10Simulation mathématique11Mathematical simulation11Simulación matemática11Simulation ordinateur12Computer simulation12Simulación computadora12Modèle économétrique13Econometric model13Modelo econométrico13Modèle mathématique14Mathematical model14Modelo matemático14Modèle simulation15Simulation model15Modelo simulación15Algorithme génétique16Genetic algorithm16Algoritmo genético16Méthode Monte Carlo17Monte Carlo method17Método Monte Carlo17Méthode plus grande pente18Steepest descent method18Método más grande inclinación18Programmation linéaire19Linear programming19Programación lineal19Recherche tabou20Tabu search20Búsqueda tabú20Porc21Pig21Cerdo21Poulet22Chicken22Pollo22Etude économique27Economic study27Estudio económico27Etude sur modèle28Model study28Estudio sobre modelo28Résolution problème29Problem solving29Resolución problema29MARGE BRUTECD96GROSS MARGINSCD96BENEFICIO BRUTOCD96Algorithme Nelder MeadCD97Nelder Mead algorithmCD97Méthode montée penteCD98ascent methodCD98Méthode recuit simuléCD99Simulated AnnealingCD99ArtiodactylaNSArtiodactylaNSArtiodactylaNSUngulataNSUngulataNSUngulataNSMammaliaNSMammaliaNSMammaliaNSVertebrataNSVertebrataNSVertebrataNSAvesNSAvesNSAvesNSProduction animale33Animal production33Producción animal33Gestion automatisée34Assisted management34Gestión automatizada34Economie agricole35Agricultural economics35Economía agricola35Economie mathématique36Mathematical economy36Economía matemática36Nutrition37Nutrition37Nutrición37Animal élevage59Farming animal59Animal cría59Animal à viande60Meat animals60Animales de carne60Volaille61Poultry61Ave de corral61245International symposium on applications of modelling as an innovative technology in the agri-food-chain2Palmerston North NZL2001-12-09Model-IT. International symposiumPalmerston North NZL2001-12-09 0567-7572566Second international symposium on applications of modelling as an innovative technology in the agri-food chain : Palmerston North, 9-13 December 2001HERTOG (M.L.A.T.M.)ed.MACKAY (B.R.)ed.International Society for Horticultural ScienceINCpatr.2001ENGeng90-6605-755-6553 p.ill., indexINIST159633540000970745700000000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.dissem.02-0421920PCMActa horticulturaeNLD002A32A02002A35A03Congrès international01International conference01Congreso internacional01Agriculture02Agriculture02Agricultura02Industrie alimentaire03Food industry03Industria alimenticia03Génie industriel alimentaire04Food engineering04Ingeniería alimentaria04Ingénierie05Engineering05Ingeniería05Modélisation06Modeling06Modelización06Innovation07Innovation07Innovación07Recherche appliquée08Applied research08Investigación aplicada08Technologie avancée09Advanced technology09Tecnología avanzada09Technologie alimentaire10Food technology10Tecnología alimentaria10Modèle mathématique11Mathematical model11Modelo matemático11Modèle théorique12Theoretical model12Modelo teórico12Modèle économétrique13Econometric model13Modelo econométrico13Modèle économique14Economic model14Modelo económico14Modèle simulation15Simulation model15Modelo simulación15Production animale16Animal production16Producción animal16Production végétale17Plant production17Produccíon vegetal17Horticulture18Horticulture18Horticultura18Culture protégée19Protected cultivation19Cultivo protegido(invernadero)19Comportement consommateur20Consumer behavior20Comportamiento consumidor20Défense consommateur21Consumer protection21Defensa consumidor21Economie agricole22Agricultural economics22Economía agricola22Entreposage23Warehousing23Almacenamiento23Génie des procédés24Process engineering24Ingeniería procesos24Gestion production25Production management25Gestión producción25Gestion qualité26Quality management26Gestión calidad26Hygiène27Hygiene27Higiene27Santé publique28Public health28Salud pública28Stockage29Storage29Almacenamiento29Traitement thermique30Heat treatment30Tratamiento térmico30Transport31Transport31Transporte31Industrie cuissonINC68INDUSTRIE DE LA VIANDEINC69Industrie fruitsINC70Industrie laitièreINC71Industrie légumesINC72Assistance ordinateurINC73Simulation ordinateurINC75Filière agroalimentaireCD96agri-food chainCD96Technologie innovanteCD97innovative technologyCD97245International symposium on applications of modelling as an innovative technology in the agri-food-chain2Palmerston North NZL2001-12-09Model-IT. International symposiumPalmerston North NZL2001-12-09 0567-7572566Simulation and multicriteria models for project appraisal under risk and uncertainty: Horticultural and fruit trees farmsSecond international symposium on applications of modelling as an innovative technology in the agri-food chain : Palmerston North, 9-13 December 2001GARCIA (C. R.)AMADOR (F.)HERTOG (M.L.A.T.M.)ed.MACKAY (B.R.)ed.ETEA, Business Administration Faculty, University of CórdobaESP1 aut.2 aut.International Society for Horticultural ScienceINCpatr.91-962001ENG90-6605-755-6INIST159633540000970745700800000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.7 ref.02-0421361PCAActa horticulturaeNLD002A32C01B3Culture plein champ01Field crop01Cultivo campo raso01Culture protégée02Protected cultivation02Cultivo protegido(invernadero)02Arboriculture03Arboriculture03Arboricultura03Horticulture04Horticulture04Horticultura04Développement agricole05Agricultural development05Desarrollo agrícola05Financement06Financing06Financiación06Investissement07Investment07Inversión07Prise décision08Decision making08Toma decision08Rentabilité09Profitability09Rentabilidad09Incertitude10Uncertainty10Incertidumbre10Risque11Risk11Riesgo11Analyse multicritère12Multicriteria analysis12Análisis multicriterio12Evaluation projet13Project evaluation13Evaluación proyecto13Modélisation14Modeling14Modelización14Recherche opérationnelle15Operations research15Investigación operacional15Simulation ordinateur16Computer simulation16Simulación computadora16Modèle économétrique17Econometric model17Modelo econométrico17Modèle simulation18Simulation model18Modelo simulación18Système information19Information system19Sistema información19Arbre fruitier20Fruit tree20Arbol frutal20Plante fruitière21Fruit crop21Planta frutal21Plante légumière22Vegetable crop22Hortalizas (plantas)22Etude sur modèle27Model study27Estudio sobre modelo27Conception projetINC68Décision financièreINC69Efficience économiqueINC70AlgorithmeINC72Distribution statistiqueINC73Méthode Monte CarloINC74LogicielINC75Système PRAPPIS (Project Appraisal Information System)INC78Serre plastiqueINC80Cucumis meloNSINC81Cucumis sativusNSINC82Lycopersicon esculentumNSINC83Phaseolus vulgarisNSINC84EspagneNGINC87Industrie fruits33Fruit industry33Industria frutas33Industrie légumes34Vegetable industry34Industria hortalizas34Economie agricole35Agricultural economics35Economía agricola35Economie mathématique36Mathematical economy36Economía matemática36Région méditerranéenneINC89245International symposium on applications of modelling as an innovative technology in the agri-food-chain2Palmerston North NZL2001-12-09Model-IT. International symposiumPalmerston North NZL2001-12-09 0567-7572566The dairy sector of an enlarged EU : Agenda 2000 and impacts of technical and institutional changesSecond international symposium on applications of modelling as an innovative technology in the agri-food chain : Palmerston North, 9-13 December 2001BROCKMEIER (Martina)HEROK (Claudia A.)MANEGOLD (Dirk)SALAMON (Petra)HERTOG (M.L.A.T.M.)ed.MACKAY (B.R.)ed.Federal Agricultural Research Centre, Institute of Market Analysis and Agricultural Trade Policy, Bundesallee 5038116 BraunschweigDEU1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.International Society for Horticultural ScienceINCpatr.45-502001ENG90-6605-755-6INIST159633540000970745700200000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.6 ref.02-0421347PCAActa horticulturaeNLD002A35B04002A36C03Industrie laitière01Dairy industry01Industria láctea01Production laitière02Milk production02Producción lechera02Changement organisationnel03Organizational change03Cambio organizacional03Changement politique04Political change04Cambio político04Prévision technologique05Technological forecasting05Previsión tecnológica05Système institutionnel06Institutional system06Commerce international07International trade07Comercio internacional07Gestion production08Production management08Gestión producción08Marché économique09Economic market09Mercado económico09Mondialisation10Globalization10Globalización10Politique agricole commune (CE)11Common Agricultural Policy (EC)11Política agrícola común (CE)11Quota12Quota12Modélisation13Modeling13Modelización13Modèle économétrique14Econometric model14Modelo econométrico14Modèle économique15Economic model15Modelo económico15Modèle équilibre général16General equilibrium model16Modelo equilibrio general16Modèle simulation17Simulation model17Modelo simulación17Scénario18Script18Argumento18Union européenne20European Union20Unión Europea202000-2010212000-2010212000-201021Analyse institutionnelle27Institutional analysis27Análisis institucional27Aspect politique28Political aspect28Aspecto político28Etude économique30Economic study30Estudio económico30Etude sur modèle31Model study31Estudio sobre modelo31Modèle GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project)INC68Modèle MIPsi (Milk Policy Simulation)INC69Agenda 2000INC70Filière agroalimentaireCD96agri-food chainCD96Prix interventionCD97intervention priceCD97CHANGEMENT TECHNOLOGIQUECD98TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGESCD98CAMBIO TECNOLOGICOCD98Production animale33Animal production33Producción animal33EuropeNG59EuropeNG59EuropaNG59245International symposium on applications of modelling as an innovative technology in the agri-food-chain2Palmerston North NZL2001-12-09Model-IT. International symposiumPalmerston North NZL2001-12-09 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy309The effects of environmental fiscal reform in Germany: a simulation studyBACH (Stefan)KOHLHAAS (Michael)MEYER (Bernd)PRAETORIUS (Barbara)WELSCH (Heinz)Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung14195 BerlinDEU1 aut.2 aut.4 aut.University of Osnabrück and GWS49076 OsnabrückDEU3 aut.Department of Economics, University of Oldenburg26111 OldenburgDEU5 aut.803-8112002ENGINIST164173540001015286700800000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.17 ref.02-0418734PAEnergy policyGBRAnalyse de l'impact, sur les emissions de CO₂, la croissance économique et l'emploi jusqu'en 2010, et sur la répartition du revenu individuel en 2003, de la nouvelle politique fiscale entrée en vigueur en Allemagne, le 1^er Avril 1999, afin de favoriser l'utilisation des combustibles et des technologies moins polluantes. L'impact économique et environnemental de cette nouvelle politique fiscale est évaluée à l'aide du modèle macroéconométrique multisectoriel, PANTA RHEI, et du modèle de simulation, LEAN, pour le secteur domestique.001D06A01A001D06A01B230Politique énergétique01Energy policy01Política energética01Politique fiscale02Fiscal policy02Política fiscal02Taxation03Taxation03Tasación03Fuel oil04Fuel oil04Fuel oil04EssenceFX05GasolineFX05GasolinaFX05Carburant diesel06Diesel fuel06Carburante diesel06Electricité07Electricity07Electricidad07Gaz naturel08Natural gas08Gas natural08Lutte antipollution09Pollution control09Lucha anticontaminación09Prévention pollution10Pollution prevention10Prevención polución10Pollution air11Air pollution11Contaminación aire11Incitation12Incentive12Combustible propre13Clean fuel13Combustible limpio13Impact environnement14Environment impact14Impacto medio ambiente14Emission polluant15Pollutant emission15Emisión contaminante15Carbone dioxydeNKFX16Carbon dioxideNKFX16Carbono dióxidoNKFX16Impact économique17Economic impact17Impacto económico17Croissance économique18Economic growth18Crecimiento económico18Emploi19Employment19Empleo19Production20Production20Producción20Secteur secondaire21Secondary sector21Sector secundario21Revenu individuel22Personal income22Renta personal22Secteur domestique23Residential sector23Sector doméstico23Modèle macroéconométrique24Macroeconometric model24Modelo macroeconométrico24Modèle économétrique25Econometric model25Modelo econométrico25Modèle simulation26Simulation model26Modelo simulación26Tableau échanges interindustriels27Input output table27Prévision28Forecasting28Previsión28Court terme29Short term29Corto plazo29Moyen terme30Medium term30Término medio30AllemagneNG31GermanyNG31AlemaniaNG31Modèle LEANINC72Modèle PANTA RHEIINC73EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG238PSI 1053-2498J. heart lung transplant.217Simulated waiting list prioritization for equitable allocation of donor lungsOUWENS (J. P.)GROEN (H.)TENVERGERT (E. M.)KOËTER (G. H.)DE BOER (W. J.)VAN DER BIJ (W.)Office for Medical Technology Assessment, University Hospital GroningenGroningenNLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.Department of Pulmonology, University Hospital GroningenGroningenNLD4 aut.6 aut.Department of Thoracic Surgery, University Hospital GroningenGroningenNLD5 aut.National Steering Group for Lung TransplantationNLD797-8032002ENGINIST211173540001082766600900000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.9 ref.02-0415779PAThe Journal of heart and lung transplantationUSABackground: In lung transplantation (LTx), allocation of donor lungs is usually based on blood group, height and waiting time. Long waiting times favor patients with a slowly progressive end-stage lung disease and make the current allocation system the subject of discussion. In an attempt to equalize the chances for transplantation for every patient, irrespective of diagnosis, we investigated the effect of diagnosis-dependent prioritization on the waiting list, using a simulation model. Methods: For the main disease categories on the waiting list, the relative risks of dying while on the waiting list were calculated using empirical data from the Dutch LTx program gathered over a period of 10 years. In a microsimulation model of the Dutch LTx program based on data from the actual situation, patients with diagnoses associated with a statistically significant increased risk of death while on the waiting list were prioritized by multiplying the time on the waiting list by the relative risk. Results: Relative risks of death on the waiting list were increased significantly in patients with cystic fibrosis, primary pulmonary hypertension and pulmonary fibrosis. Prioritization resulted in an increased chance of transplantation for the prioritized diagnoses and a decreased chance for the non-prioritized diagnoses. The distribution of diagnoses after LTx was almost equal to the distribution of diagnoses on the waiting list. Conclusion: The simulated method of prioritization on the waiting list is a step forward to a more equitable allocation of donor lungs. Moreover, this method is clinically feasible, as long as the waiting list is updated frequently.002B25DHauteur02Height02Altura02Temps attente03Waiting time03Tiempo espera03Mucoviscidose04Cystic fibrosis04Mucoviscidosis04Homme05Human05Hombre05Progressif06Progressive06Progresivo06Hypertension artérielle pulmonaire07Pulmonary hypertension07Hipertensión arterial pulmonar07Stade terminal08Terminal stage08Estadio terminal08Courant09Current09Corriente09Système11System11Sistema11Discussion12Discussion12Discusión12Homotransplantation14Homotransplantation14Homotrasplante14Diagnostic15Diagnosis15Diagnóstico15Affectation17Allocation17Afectación17Donneur18Donor18Donador18Poumon pathologie19Lung disease19Pulmón patología19Transplantation20Transplantation20Trasplantación20Groupe sanguin21Blood group21Grupo sanguíneo21Modèle simulation22Simulation model22Modelo simulación22Méthode23Method23Método23Facteur risque24Risk factor24Factor riesgo24Traitement25Treatment25Tratamiento25Risque35Risk35Riesgo35Liste attenteINC86Fibrose poumonINC87Greffe37Graft37Injerto37Maladie héréditaire38Genetic disease38Enfermedad hereditaria38Appareil respiratoire pathologie39Respiratory disease39Aparato respiratorio patología39Chirurgie40Surgery40Cirugía40Pancréas pathologie41Pancreatic disease41Páncreas patología41Métabolisme pathologie42Metabolic diseases42Metabolismo patología42Appareil digestif pathologie43Digestive diseases43Aparato digestivo patología43Appareil circulatoire pathologie45Cardiovascular disease45Aparato circulatorio patología45238OTO 1149-159066Evaluer les politiques familiales. LEGENDRE (François)LORGNET (Jean-Paul)THIBAULT (Florence)JACQUOT (Alain)3-942001-12FREBDSP/ENSP01/12 N:66 p.3-9488006 p.02-0405293PARECHERCHES ET PREVISIONSFRADans ce dossier les sujets suivants sont développés : La microsimulation : l'objet de cet article est de présenter les modèles socio-économiques de microsimulation. Les auteurs détaillent les principes mis en oeuvre dans ce type d'outil et exposent les principaux modèles existant actuellement en France ; la présentation de Myriade qui est le modèle de microsimulation en cours de développement à la Caisse nationale des allocations familiales (CNAF). Avec cet outil, la branche Famille améliore ses possibilités d'études, de prévisions et de chiffrages ; la redistribution au bénéfice des familles : l'apport du modèle Myriade ; Explorations autour de l'allocation familiale unique. Substituer une seule prestation aux prestations d'entretien des enfants existantes.002B30A11Politique socialeSocial policyPolítica socialEvaluationEvaluationEvaluaciónInformatiqueComputer scienceInformáticaMilieu familialFamily environmentMedio familiarDonnée statistiqueStatistical dataDato estadísticoFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG231 1146-9129174L'impact des prestations familiales sur le revenu des ménages en 2001. Une estimation à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation INES. LE MINEZ (S.)LHOMMEAU (B.)PUCCI (M.)Ministère de l'Emploi et de la Solidarité. Direction de la Recherche des Etudes de l'Evaluation et des Statistiques. (D.R.E.E.S.). Paris.FRA2002-05FRE12 p.5 tabl., 2 graph.BDSP/CREDES26282, P8388006 ref.02-0404420PMETUDES ET RESULTATSFRALes transferts monétaires effectués dans le cadre de la politique familiale (hors impôts et minima sociaux) peuvent être évalués selon deux dimensions à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation INES : redistribution horizontale, des ménages sans enfant vers les familles, et verticale vers les familles les plus modestes. A revenu donné, la politique familiale compense partiellement l'impact de la présence d'enfants sur le niveau de vie des ménages. Elle joue plus fortement pour les familles modestes, le montant moyen des prestations versées par enfant diminuant avec le revenu des ménages. Cette compensation est importante pour les familles monoparentales et les couples ayant au moins trois enfants, qui bénéficient de mesures spécifiques (complément familial, allocation pour parent isolé, allocation de soutien familial). La politique familiale compense ainsi plus de la moitié de l'impact de la charge d'enfants sur le niveau de vie pour environ 30% des familles monoparentales ayant deux enfants ou plus et des couples avec trois enfants ou plus. A configuration familiale donnée, la politique familiale opère en outre une redistribution vers les plus bas niveaux de vie : après transferts, le niveau de vie relatif des 10% des ménages les plus modestes est amélioré pour toutes les familles, et plus particulièrement pour les familles nombreuses ou monoparentales. Parmi les couples qui ont au moins trois enfants, le niveau de vie avant prestations familiales est ainsi 5,9 fois plus élevé pour les 10% des ménages les plus aisés que pour les 10% les plus modestes, contre seulement 3,6 fois après. Au sein des familles monoparentales avec un enfant, cet écart inter-décile se trouve réduit de 22,8 à 6. L'impact redistributif des transferts monétaires qu'opère la politique familiale permet ainsi à 7% des familles d'éviter une situation de pauvreté monétaire (résumé d'auteur).002B30A11Aide socialeSocial helpAyuda socialLogement habitationHousingHabitaciónRevenu individuelPersonal incomeRenta personalNiveau vieStandard of livingStatut conjugalMarital statusEstatuto conyugalDonnée statistiqueStatistical dataDato estadísticoModèleModelsModeloFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG231 La microsimulation dynamique en démographie : peut-on raconter la solution d'un problème formalisé ?Le modèle et le récit. GRIGNON (M.)333-3532001FREEditions de la Maison des Sciences de l'Homme2-735-10905-4BDSP/CREDES25671, R1374, A24478800dissem.02-0404294LAFRA002B30A11Sciences socialesSocial sciencesCiencias socialesSociologieSociologySociologíaScienceSciencesCienciaModèleModelsModeloThéorieTheoryTeoríaConsommateurConsumerConsumidorHistoireHistoryHistoriaEconomie santéHealth economyEconomía saludMicroéconomieMicroeconomyMicroeconomíaDémographieDemographyDemografíaStatistiqueStatisticsEstadísticaEpistémologieEpistemologyEpistemologíaConnaissanceKnowledgeConocimientoSynthèseSynthesisSíntesis231 0027-8874J. Natl. Cancer Inst.943Cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening: Comparison of screening policiesVAN DEN AKKER-VAN MARLE (M. Elske)VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein)VAN OORTMARSSEN (Gerrit J.)BOER (Rob)HABBEMA (J. Dik F.)Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Erasmus University RotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.5 aut.Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and RAND HealthSanta Monica, CAUSA4 aut.193-2042002ENGINIST33643540001024070400500000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.53 ref.02-0333607PAJournal of the National Cancer InstituteUSABackground: Recommended screening policies for cervical cancer differ widely among countries with respect to targeted age range, screening interval, and total number of scheduled screening examinations (i.e., Pap smears). We compared the efficiency of cervical cancer-screening programs by performing a cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer-screening policies from high-income countries. Methods: We used the microsimulation screening analysis (MISCAN) program to model and determine the costs and effects of almost 500 screening policies, some fictitious and some actual (i.e., recommended by national guidelines). The costs (in U.S. dollars) and effects (in years of life gained) were compared for each policy to identify the most efficient policies. Results: There were 15 efficient screening policies (i.e., no alternative policy exists that results in more life-years gained for lower costs). For these policies, which considered two to 40 total scheduled examinations, the age range expanded gradually from 40-52 years to 20-80 years as the screening interval decreased from 12 to 1.5 years. For the efficient policies, the predicted gain in life expectancy ranged from 11.6 to 32.4 days, compared with a gain of 46 days if cervical cancer mortality were eliminated entirely. The average cost-effectiveness ratios increased from $6700 (for the longest screening interval) to $23900 per life-year gained. For some countries, the recommended screening policies were close to efficient, but the cost-effectiveness could be improved by reducing the number of scheduled examinations, starting them at later ages, or lengthening the screening interval. Conclusions: The basis for the diversity in the screening policies among high-income countries does not appear to relate to the screening policies' cost-effectiveness ratios, which are highly sensitive to the number of Pap smears offered during a lifetime.002B24O11Carcinome01Carcinoma01Carcinoma01Col utérus02Uterine cervix02Cuello útero02Cytopathologie04Cytopathology04Citopatología04Anatomopathologie05Pathology05Anatomía patológica05Dépistage06Medical screening06Descubrimiento06Frottis cervical07Cervical smear07Frotis cervical07Démographie08Demography08Demografía08Epidémiologie09Epidemiology09Epidemiología09Analyse coût efficacité10Cost efficiency analysis10Análisis costo eficacia10Politique sanitaire11Health policy11Política sanitaria11Etude comparative17Comparative study17Estudio comparativo17Homme20Human20Hombre20Femelle21Female21Hembra21Appareil génital femelle pathologie37Female genital diseases37Aparato genital hembra patología37Col utérus pathologie38Uterine cervix diseases38Cuello útero patología38Tumeur maligne39Malignant tumor39Tumor maligno39182PSI 1093-9687Comput.-aided civil infrastruct. eng.173Gis-based analysis of railway's origin/destination path-selecting behaviorSustainable civil infrastructure systemsZHONGZHEN YANGHAYASHI (Yoshitsugu)ITOH (Yoshito)ed.LIU (Chunlu)ed.Department of Civil Engineering, Dalian University of TechnologyDalian 116023CHN1 aut.Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya UniversityNagoya 464-8603JPN2 aut.University of NagoyaJPN1 aut.221-2262002ENGINIST211603540001005151500800000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.6 ref.02-0289398PAComputer-aided civil and infrastructure engineeringUSAThis study aims to analyze a railway's OD path-selecting behavior with microsimulation analysis in big cities. In big cities, railway networks often consist of lines belonging to several different companies, making railway OD path-selecting behavior very complex. Usually, the second or third nearest stations are used instead of the nearest station. This study takes buildings rather than zones as origins or destinations for simulating railway path-selecting behavior, First, in the GIS database, we consider whether the destinations are within walking distance of their origins. Then we modify the map-based railway network with GIS to make it represent the real urban railway network more clearly. Then, from all the available stations for each building, and all the paths between the origin and destination stations, the one involving the shortest distance is the one used.001D15D001D15BTransport ferroviaire01Rail transportation01Transporte ferroviaro01Analyse comportementale02Behavioral analysis02Análisis conductual02Simulation numérique03Numerical simulation03Simulación numérica03Modèle origine destination04Origin destination model04Modelo origen destinación04Système information géographique05Geographic information system05Sistema información geográfica05Critère décision06Decision criterion06Criterio decisión06Itinéraire07Route07Itinerario07Modèle microscopique08Microscopic model08Modelo microscópico08Base donnée09Database09Base dato09Plus court chemin10Shortest path10Camino más corto10Réseau ferroviaire11Railway network11Red ferroviaria11Gestion optimale12Managerial optimization12Gestión óptima12Algorithme13Algorithm13Algoritmo13Accessibilité14Accessibility14Accesibilidad14169PSI 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1750Analysis of aggregation effects in vehicular emission estimationEnergy, air quality, and fuels 2001ZIETSMAN (Josias)RILETT (Laurence R.)Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University SystemCollege Station, TX 77843USA1 aut.2 aut.Transportation Research BoardWashington, DCUSApatr.56-632001ENGINIST10459B3540001079726500700000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.13 ref.02-0279249PCATransportation research recordUSAIn the United States, most emissions modeling is done using the MOBILE suite of programs. One of the inputs required is vehicle kilometers of travel (VKT) for each vehicle class as a function of average speed. This information traditionally has been obtained from macroscopic planning models whereby the average speed on a given length of roadway is the same for all vehicle classes. During the past 10 years, however, there has been a definite shift away from macro-level transportation modeling to a more simulation-based approach. In addition to the advances in modeling techniques, the advent of intelligent transportation systems (ITS) has opened numerous possibilities for capturing detailed transportation-related information. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the trade-offs involved under different aggregation scenarios for estimating vehicular emissions using data sets produced by microsimulation models and ITS. A 22-km section of Interstate 10 in Houston, Texas, was used as the test bed in this study. The VKT and speed data for this corridor were determined using a calibrated TRANSIMS model. This information was then used with the MOBILESa emission model to compute emission estimates. The vehicular emissions were determined for a broad range of spatial, temporal, and combined spatial and temporal levels of disaggregation. It was found that emission estimates could vary by as much as 20 percent, depending on how the VKT and speed data are determined or depending on the type of ITS data-collection technology used.001D15C001D16C04CVéhicule routier01Road vehicle01Vehículo caminero01Emission polluant02Pollutant emission02Emisión contaminante02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Agrégation04Aggregation04Agregación04Etats UnisNG05United StatesNG05Estados UnidosNG05Scénario06Script06Argumento06Modèle prévision07Forecast model07Modelo previsión07Simulation numérique08Numerical simulation08Simulación numérica08Analyse sensibilité09Sensitivity analysis09Análisis sensibilidad09Désagrégation10Disaggregation10Desagregación10Corrélation spatiotemporelle11Space time correlation11Correlación espacio tiempo11TexasNG12TexasNG12TexasNG12Système automatique13Automatic system13Sistema automático13Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG161PSIAnnual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board80Washington, DC USA2001-01-07 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1748Assessment of stochastic signal optimization method using microsimulationAdvanced traffic management systems and vehicle-highway automation 2001PARK (Byungkyu)ROUPHAIL (Nagui M.)SACKS (Jerome)Department of Civil Engineering, University of Virginia, P.O. Box 400742Charlottesville, VA 22904-4742USA1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, North Carolina State University, Campus Box 7908Raleigh, NC 27695-7908USA2 aut.National Institute of Statistical Sciences, P.O. Box 14006Research Triangle Park, NC 27709USA3 aut.National Research Council. Transportation Research BoardWashington, DC 20418USApatr.40-452001ENGINIST10459B3540001079772900500000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.13 ref.02-0276070PCATransportation research recordUSAA stochastic signal optimization method based on a genetic algorithm (GA-SOM) that interfaces with the microscopic simulation program CORSIM is assessed. A network in Chicago consisting of nine signalized intersections is used as an evaluation test bed. Taking CORSIM as the best representation of reality, the performance of the GA-SOM plan sets a ceiling on how good any (fixed) signal plan can be. An important aspect of this approach is its accommodations of variability. Also discussed is the robustness of an optimal plan under changes in demand. This benchmark is used to assess the best signal plan generated by TRANSYT-7F (T7F), Version 8.1, from among 12 reasonable strategies. The performance of the best T7F plan falls short of the benchmark on several counts, reflecting the need to account for variability in the highly stochastic system of traffic operations, which is not possible under the deterministic conditions intrinsic to T7F. As a sidelight, the performance of the GA-SOM plan within T7F is also computed and it is found to perform nearly as well as the optimum T7F plan.001D14O05001D15C001D15B295Feu signalisation01Traffic lights01Semáforo01Optimisation02Optimization02Optimización02Méthode stochastique03Stochastic method03Método estocástico03Algorithme génétique04Genetic algorithm04Algoritmo genético04Gestion trafic05Traffic management05Gestión tráfico05Trafic routier urbain06Urban road traffic06Tráfico vial urbano06Intersection07Intersection07Intersección07Etude comparative08Comparative study08Estudio comparativo08Simulation09Simulation09Simulación09IllinoisNG10IllinoisNG10IlinoisNG10Timing11Timing11Timing11Evaluation performance12Performance evaluation12Evaluación prestación12Robustesse13Robustness13Robustez13Recommandation14Recommendation14Recomendación14Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG161PSIAnnual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board80Washington, DC USA2001-01-07 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1748Comparison of TRANSIMS and CORSIM traffic signal simulation modulesAdvanced traffic management systems and vehicle-highway automation 2001RILETT (L. R.)KIM (Kyu-Ok)Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University SystemCollege Station, TX 77843USA1 aut.2 aut.National Research Council. Transportation Research BoardWashington, DC 20418USApatr.18-252001ENGINIST10459B3540001079772900300000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.16 ref.02-0276069PCATransportation research recordUSAThe microsimulation-based Transportation Analysis and Simulation System (TRANSIMS), which represents the next generation of travel forecasting techniques, was designed to model the transportation system of a metropolitan area at an individual traveler's level. Although the default model parameters in the TRANSIMS traffic signal logic were calibrated to the macroscopic flow relationships contained within the Highway Capacity Manual, to date there has been no research on the traffic signal characteristics of TRANSIMS using empirical data. The TRANSIMS traffic signal logic is examined with an emphasis on how well it could replicate diamond interchange operations. A diamond interchange network was coded into TRANSIMS, and the simulation results were compared with both empirical observations and CORSIM results. It was found that TRANSIMS logic could model the operation of a diamond interchange with respect to offset, cycle length, traffic demand, and signal spacing.001D15C001D15B001D14O05295Trafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Gestion trafic02Traffic management02Gestión tráfico02Simulation03Simulation03Simulación03Feu signalisation04Traffic lights04Semáforo04Carrefour routier05Road junction05Cruce carretera05Etude comparative06Comparative study06Estudio comparativo06Modèle prévision08Forecast model08Modelo previsión08Zone urbaine09Urban area09Zona urbana09Automate cellulaire10Cellular automaton10Autómata celular10Etude expérimentale11Experimental study11Estudio experimental11Méthodologie12Methodology12Metodología12Résultat13Result13Resultado13Analyse sensibilité14Sensitivity analysis14Análisis sensibilidad14Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15161PSIAnnual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board80Washington, DC USA2001-01-07 0196-8904ECMADLEnergy convers. manage.434Forecasting the primary energy demand in Turkey and analysis of cyclic patternsEDIGER (Volkan S.)TATLIDIL (Hüseyin)CumhurbaşkanliğtÇankaya, 06689 AnkaraTUR1 aut.Department of Statistics, Hacettepe University06530 AnkaraTUR2 aut.473-4872002ENGINIST101973540001034339100300000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.36 ref.02-0230766PAEnergy conversion and managementGBREtude comparative de plusieurs méthodes de prévision de la consommation d'énergie primaire, de la Turquie, jusqu'en 2010 : la méthode économétrique SPO, le modèle de simulation MAED qui prend en compte des paramètres socio-économiques et technologiques, la méthode de lissage exponentiel de Winters et l'analyse des cycles dans l'évolution de la consommation d'énergie primaire et du PIB, de 1950 à 1999.001D06A01C1001D06A01A230Economie énergie01Energy economy01Economía energía01Consommation énergie02Energy consumption02Consumo energía02Energie primaire03Primary energy03Energía primaria03Prévision04Forecasting04Previsión04Moyen terme05Medium term05Término medio05Méthodologie06Methodology06Metodología06Etude comparative07Comparative study07Estudio comparativo07Modèle économétrique08Econometric model08Modelo econométrico08Modèle simulation09Simulation model09Modelo simulación09Modèle économique10Economic model10Modelo económico10Lissage exponentiel11Exponential smoothing11Alisado exponencial11PIB12Gross domestic product12PIB12Analyse tendance13Trend analysis13Análisis tendencia13Méthode cyclique14Cyclic method14Método cíclico14TurquieNG15TurkeyNG15TurquíaNG15AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG140PSI 0954-898XNetwork : (Bristol)131Rearrangement of receptive field topography after intracortical and peripheral stimulation: the role of plasticity in inhibitory pathwaysKALARICKAL (George J.)MARSHALL (Jonathan A.)Department of Computer Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel HillUSA1 aut.2 aut.1-402002ENGINIST221143540001033382200100000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.2 p.1/202-0228305PANetwork : (Bristol)GBRIntracortical microstimulation (ICMS) of a single site in the somatosensory cortex of rats and monkeys for 2-6 h increases the number of neurons responsive to the skin region corresponding to the ICMS-site receptive field (RF), with very little effect on the position and size of the ICMS-site RF, and the response evoked at the ICMS site by tactile stimulation. Large changes in RF topography are also observed following several weeks of repetitive stimulation of a restricted skin region during tactile frequency discrimination training in monkeys. It has been suggested that these changes in RF topography are caused by competitive learning in excitatory pathways. This paper analyses the possible role of lateral inhibitory synaptic plasticity in producing cortical plasticity after ICMS and peripheral conditioning in adult animals. The EXIN' (afferent excitatory and lateral inhibitory) synaptic plasticity rules are used to model RF changes after ICMS and peripheral stimulation. The EXIN model produces RF topographical changes similar to those observed experimentally. It is shown that lateral inhibitory pathway plasticity is sufficient to model RF changes and increase in position discrimination after peripheral stimulation. Several novel and testable predictions are made based on the EXIN model.002A25A002A01BRéseau neuronal01Neural network01Red neuronal01Neurologie02Neurology02Neurología02Réaction corticale03Cortical reaction03Reacción cortical03Simulation04Simulation04Simulación04Plasticité synaptique05Synaptic plasticity05Plasticidad sináptica05Potentiel postsynaptique inhibiteur06Inhibitory postsynaptic potential06Potencial postsináptico inhibidor06Champ récepteur07Receptive field07Campo receptor07Inhibition latérale08Lateral inhibition08Inhibición lateral08Neurone09Neuron09Neurona09Thalamus10Thalamus10Tálamo10ICMSCD96Intracortical microsimulationCD96133 0047-2425JEVQAAJ. environ. qual.311Effects of conservation tillage on the performance of Lake Erie basin farmsFORSTER (D. Lynn)Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, The Ohio State University, 2120 Fyffe Rd.Columbus, Ohio 43210USA1 aut.32-372002ENGINIST154803540000948201000400000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.23 ref.02-0222067PAJournal of environmental qualityUSAThis paper summarizes research that investigates the effects of alternative farming practices on the performance of Lake Erie basin farms. First, data from a representative panel of about 100 farmers is analyzed to determine how conservation tillage, rotations, and other factors affected farms' economic returns during 1987-1992. Statistical analysis of these data is unable to demonstrate that there is any significant relationship between farming system (i.e., tillage and rotation) variables and farm profitability. Next, a farm-level bioeconomic simulation model is used to analyze the effects of conservation tillage adoption on farm profitability, farm size, and pollutant emissions. Findings are that tillage system, farm size, and crop selection are determined jointly and may substantially improve economic performance of farms. Conservation tillage enables farms to be larger and more specialized, and as a result, farm profitability improves. Statistical analysis of farm panel data is unable to show the effect of tillage on profitability because it neglects to account for endogeneity of variables (or joint effects of tillage, size, crop selection, and performance) in production decisions.002A32B05002A32C01B2Exploitation agricole01Farming01Explotación agrícola01Performance système02System performance02Eficacia sistema02Technique culturale antiérosive03Conservation tillage03Técnica cultural antierosiva03Bassin hydrographique10Drainage basins10Cuenca hidrográfica10Région géographique11Geographical division11Región geografica11Lac EriéNG12Lake ErieNG12Lago ErieNG12Etude régionaleNI27Regional studyNI27Estudio regionalNI27Evaluation performanceNI28Performance evaluationNI28Evaluación prestaciónNI28Emission polluantINC68Rotation culturaleINC69Système cultureINC70Système exploitation agricoleINC71Travail solINC72ModélisationINC73Simulation ordinateurINC74Modèle bioéconomiqueINC75Modèle économétriqueINC76Modèle simulationINC77AgriculteurINC78OhioNGINC791987-1992NDINC80Etude économiqueINC81Enquête sur exploitations agricolesCD96Farm surveysCD96Encuestas sobre explotacionesCD96Grands Lacs AmériqueNGGreat Lakes of AmericaNGGrandes Lagos AméricaNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNGEconomie agricole33Agricultural economics33Economía agricola33Economie environnement34Environment economy34Economía medio ambiente34Conservation sol35Soil conservation35Conservación suelo35Pollution eau36Water pollution36Contaminación agua36Qualité environnement37Environment quality37Calidad medio ambiente37Programme agri-environnemental38Agri-environmental program38Programa agroambiental38Etats UnisNGINC82ETATS DU CENTRE NORD (EU)NGINC90Projet LEASEQCD97Lake Erie Agricultural Systems for Environmental Quality (LEASEQ) projectCD97126 0140-9883EECODREnergy econ.233Demand, generation and price in the Norwegian market for electric powerJOHNSEN (Tor Arnt)Research Department, Statistics Norway, PB 8131, Dep.0033 OsloNOR1 aut.227-2512001ENGINIST182313540000950908500100000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.8 ref.02-0206227PAEnergy economicsGBRPrésentation de la conception et de la structure du marché norvégien de l'électricité. Développement d'une modèlisation économétrique de la demande et du prix de l'électricité, à partir des données de 1994 et 1995. Vérification du modèle en estimant l'évolution en 1996. Etude de l'impact des variations de température, de l'arrivée d'eau, de l'enneigement, des degrés jour et de la longueur du jour, sur le prix et la demande d'électricité.001D06A01C4001D06A01A230Economie énergie01Energy economy01Economía energía01Electricité02Electricity02Electricidad02Structure marché03Market structure03Estructura mercado03Marché concurrentiel04Open market04Demande05Demand05Petición05Prix06Price06Precio06Modèle économétrique07Econometric model07Modelo econométrico07Simulation08Simulation08Simulación08Méthode dynamique09Dynamic method09Método dinámico09Maximum vraisemblance10Maximum likelihood10Maxima verosimilitud10Variation saisonnière11Seasonal variation11Variación estacional11Somme température12Heat sum12Suma temperatura12Longueur jour13Day length13Largura día13Enneigement14Snowfall14Estado nieve14Température15Temperature15Temperatura15Venue eau16Water influx16Irrupción agua16Centrale hydroélectrique17Hydroelectric power plant17Central hidroeléctrica17Coefficient élasticité économique18Ratio of economic flexibility18NorvègeNG19NorwayNG19NoruegaNG19EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG119PSI 1520-765X3QPrognosis after aortic valve replacement with St. Jude Medical bileaflet prostheses: impact on outcome of varying thromboembolic and bleeding hazardsAntithrombotic management after heart valve replacement: results and consequences of the GELIA study, proceedings of an international workshop, March 30-31, 2001, Bad Oeynhausen, GermanyTAKKENBERG (J. J. M.)PUVIMANASINGHE (J. P. A.)VAN HERWERDEN (L. A.)STEYERBERG (E. W.)EIJKEMANS (M. J. C.)HABBEMA (J. D. F.)BOGERS (A. J. J. C.)HORSTKOTTE (Dieter)ed.BERGEMANN (R.)ed.Department of Cardio-thoracic Surgery, Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.7 aut.Center for Clinical Decision Sciences, Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamNLD2 aut.4 aut.5 aut.6 aut.Department of Cardiology, Heart Center North Rhine-Westphalia, Ruhr University of BochumBad OeynhausenDEU1 aut.Institute for Medical Outcome ResearchLörrachDEU2 aut.Q27-Q322001ENGINIST18785S3540001034593300600000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.25 ref.02-0173171PCAEuropean heart journal. SupplementsGBRAims Prognosis after aortic valve replacement (AVR) with mechanical prostheses depends on multiple inter-related factors. Investigation into these factors is complicated by limited knowledge on outcome after AVR and by the varying therapeutic ranges of International Normalized Ratio employed worldwide. Meta-analysis was combined with microsimulation to calculate evidence-based, age-specific outcomes after AVR with St. Jude Medical (SJM) prostheses (St. Jude Medical, Inc., St. Paul, MN, U.S.A.). Method and results Eight studies were included in a meta-analysis of published results of primary isolated AVR with SJM prostheses (2986 patients, 16,163 patient-years) in order to estimate the hazard of postoperative valve-related events. Using microsimulation, calculated life expectancy and event-free life expectancy were 22 and 16 years in males aged 35 years, and 7 and 5 years in males aged 75 years, respectively. Calculated lifetime risks for thromboembolic and bleeding events were 22% and 15% in males aged 35 years, and 7% and 37% in males aged 75 years, respectively. Varying thromboembolic and bleeding hazards resulted in considerable shifts in lifetime risks and deaths associated with these events. Conclusion Meta-analysis combined with microsimulation is a powerful tool with which to calculate reliable estimates of long-term prognosis, and allows detailed insight into the occurrence of valve-related events. Thromboembolism and bleeding occur frequently after AVR with mechanical prostheses and have an important impact on survival. Optimal control of International Normalized Ratio is therefore of utmost importance.002B25EChirurgie01Surgery01Cirugía01Remplacement02Replacement02Reemplazo02Valvule aortique03Aortic valve03Válvula aórtica03Prothèse à disque04Disk prosthesis04Prótesis disco04Thromboembolie07Thromboembolism07Tromboembolia07Traitement17Treatment17Tratamiento17Pronostic18Prognosis18Pronóstico18Homme20Human20Hombre20Appareil circulatoire pathologie53Cardiovascular disease53Aparato circulatorio patología53Vaisseau sanguin pathologie54Vascular disease54Vaso sanguíneo patología54098PSIAntithrombotic Management after Heart Valve Replacement: Results and Consequences of the GELIA Study. International SymposiumBad Oeynhausen DEU2001-03-30 0007-0920BJCAAIBr. J. cancer859First do no harm: extending the debate on the provision of preventive tamoxifenWILL (B. P.)NOBREGA (K. M.)BERTHELOT (J-M)FLANAGAN (W.)WOLFSON (M. C.)LOGAN (D. M.)EVANS (W. K.)The Health Analysis and Modeling Group, Statistics Canada, 24-Q, R.H. Coats BuildingOttawa, Ontario, K1A 0T6CAN1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.5 aut.The Ottawa Regional Cancer Centre, the University of Ottawa and Cancer Care Ontario, 620 University AvenueToronto, Ontario, M5G 2L7CAN6 aut.7 aut.1280-12882001ENGINIST69253540001030257900800000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.14 ref.02-0126257PABritish journal of cancerGBRThe Breast Cancer Prevention Trial (BCPT-P-1) demonstrated that tamoxifen could reduce the risk of invasive breast cancer in high-risk women by 49%, but that it could also increase the risk of endometrial cancer, vascular events and cataracts. This paper provides an estimate of the net health impacts of tamoxifen administration on high-risk Canadian women with no prior history of breast cancer. The results of the BCPT-P-1 were incorporated into the breast cancer and other modules of Statistics Canada's microsimulation Population HEalth Model (POHEM). While the main intervention scenario conformed as closely as possible to the eligibility criteria for tamoxifen in the BCPT-P-1 protocol, 3 additional scenarios were simulated. Predicted absolute risks of breast cancer at 5 years of 1.66%, 3.32% and 4.15% were calculated for women 35 to 70 years of age. When the BCPT-P-1 results were incorporated into the simulation model, the analysis suggests no increase in life expectancy in this risk group. Tamoxifen appeared to be beneficial for women with a 5-year predicted risk of 3.32% or greater. The results of these simulations are particularly sensitive to the reduction in mortality observed in the BCPT-P-1, as well as being sensitive to other characteristics of the simulation model. Overall, the analysis raises questions about the use of tamoxifen in otherwise healthy women at high risk of breast cancer.002B02R02TamoxifèneNKFR01TamoxifeneNKFR01TamoxifenoNKFR01Toxicité02Toxicity02Toxicidad02Chimiothérapie03Chemotherapy03Quimioterapia03Anticancéreux04Antineoplastic agent04Anticanceroso04Homme05Human05Hombre05Prévention08Prevention08Prevención08Composé non stéroïde09Non steroid compound09Compuesto no esteroide09Antihormone11Antihormone11Antihormona11Antioestrogène12Antiestrogen12Antiestrógeno12Indication13Indication13Indicación13Facteur risque14Risk factor14Factor riesgo14Complication15Complication15Complicación15Espérance vie17Life expectancy17Esperanza de vida17Estrogen synthaseFE18Estrogen synthaseFE18Estrogen synthaseFE18Etude multicentrique19Multicenter study19Estudio multicéntrico19AnastrozoleNKFR20AnastrozoleNKFR20AnastrozolNKFR20Etude double insu21Double blind study21Estudio doble ciego21Randomisation22Randomization22Aleatorización22Femelle24Female24Hembra24Long terme35Long term35Largo plazo35EnzymeEnzymeEnzima070PSI Combined application of traffic microsimulation and street canyon dispersion models, and evaluation of the modelling system against measured dataUrban transport VI :urban transport and the environment for the 21st century : Cambridge, 26-28 July 2000GRANBERG (M.)NIITTYMÄKI (J.)KARPPINEN (A.)KUKKONEN (J.)SUCHAROV (L.)ed.BREBBIA (C.A.)ed.Helsinki University of Technology, Laboratory of TransportationFIN1 aut.2 aut.Finnish Meteorological InstituteFIN3 aut.4 aut.349-3582000ENGWIT PressSouthampton1-85312-823-6International conference on urban transport and the environment for the 21st century6Cambridge GBR2000-07-26INISTY 335973540000970350603500000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.11 ref.02-0117275CAGBRIn this study, the traffic micro-simulation model HUTSIM, used by Helsinki University of Technology, and a street canyon dispersion model OSPM (Operational Street Pollution Model) were integrated. HUTSIM is designed especially for simulating signal-controlled intersections and small areas consisting of several intersections. In 1997 a measuring campaign was conducted in a street canyon (Runeberg's St.) in Helsinki. Hourly concentrations of CO, NO_X, NO₂ and O₃were measured at street and roof levels. The relevant hourly meteorological parameters were measured at roof level; these included wind speed and direction, temperature and solar radiation. Hourly street level measurements and on-site electronic traffic counts were conducted throughout the whole of 1997; roof level measurements were conducted for approximately two months, from 3^rdof March to 30^th of April, 1997. The above mentioned location and time (the year 1997) are considered also in this study, in order to be able to compare the simulation results with measured traffic flow and concentration values, as well as the corresponding previous computational results. The results of flow and emission computations obtained with the two modelling systems, involving traffic micro- and macrosimulation models, were first compared with each other. The predicted atmospheric pollutant concentrations were then compared with the measured data. The results were promising.001D15C001D16C04CTrafic routier urbain01Urban road traffic01Tráfico vial urbano01Simulation numérique02Numerical simulation02Simulación numérica02Dispersion03Dispersion03Dispersión03Modèle microscopique04Microscopic model04Modelo microscópico04Régulation trafic05Traffic control05Regulación tráfico05Signalisation routière06Road signalling06Señalización tráfico06Mesure concentration07Concentration measurement07Medición concentración07Emission polluant08Pollutant emission08Emisión contaminante08Condition climatique09Climatic condition09Condición climática09Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15063PSI 0965-8564Transp. res., Part A Policy pract.359Airline market share and customer service quality: a reference-dependent modelSUZUKI (Yoshinori)TYWORTH (John E.)NOVACK (Robert A.)Department of Logistics, Operations and MIS, College of Business, Iowa State University, 300 Carver HallAmes, IA 50011USA1 aut.Department of Business Logistics, Smeal College of Business Administration, Pennsylvania State UniversityUSA2 aut.3 aut.773-7882001ENGINIST12377A3540000963996500100000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/402-0011824PATransportation research. Part A, Policy and practiceGBRTraditional models that explain the nature of the relationship between customer service quality and airline demand assume that the relationship can be approximated by using smooth or differentiable curves. Suzuki and Tyworth, however, recently argued that this assumption may not be valid, and that, if it is invalid, the model performance can be improved by using non-smooth functions to represent the relationship (Suzuki, Y., Tyworth, J.E., 1998. A theoretical framework for modeling sales-service relationships in the transportation industry, Transportation Research E 34 (2), 87-100). We use their framework to develop a model that represents the relationship between service quality and market share in the airline industry and then empirically compare its performance with conventional airline demand models. The results indicate that the relationship is characterized by a non-smooth curve and that our model provides a significantly better goodness of fit than other conventional demand models.001D15I001D15BTransport aérien01Air transportation01Transporte aéreo01Economie transport02Economy of transports02Economía transporte02Pénétration marché03Market penetration03Penetración mercado03Qualité service04Service quality04Calidad servicio04Simulation numérique05Numerical simulation05Simulación numérica05Système référence06Reference system06Sistema referencia06Modèle économétrique07Econometric model07Modelo econométrico07Demande transport08Transport demand08Demanda transporte08Analyse statistique09Statistical analysis09Análisis estadístico09Tarification10Tariffication10Fijacion tarifa10Analyse multicritère11Multicriteria analysis11Análisis multicriterio11Etude comparative12Comparative study12Estudio comparativo12001 0965-8564Transp. res., Part A Policy pract.359The effect of income on car ownership: evidence of asymmetryDARGAY (Joyce M.)ESRC Transport Studies Unit, Centre for Transport Studies, University College London, Gower StreetLondon WC1E 6BTGBR1 aut.807-8212001ENGINIST12377A3540000963996500300000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.18 ref.02-0010915PATransportation research. Part A, Policy and practiceGBRThis paper examines the effect of income on car ownership, and specifically the question of hysteresis or asymmetry. Although there is little doubt that rising income leads to higher car ownership, less is understood about the effect of falling income. Traditional demand modelling is based on the implicit assumption that demand responds symmetrically to rising and falling income. The object of this study is to test this assumption statistically. Using a dynamic econometric model relating household car ownership to income, the number of adults and children in the household, car prices and lagged car ownership, income decomposition techniques are employed to separately estimate elasticities with respect to rising and falling income. The equality of these elasticities - no hysteresis - is tested statistically against the inequality -hysteresis - hypothesis. Various functional specifications are tested in order to assure the robustness of the results to assumptions concerning functional form. The estimation is based on cohort data constructed from 1970 to 1995 UK Family Expenditure Surveys, and a pseudo-panel methodology is employed. The results indicate that car ownership responds more strongly to rising than to falling income - there is a stickiness' in the downward direction. In addition, there is evidence that the income elasticity is not constant, but instead declines with increasing car ownership.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Automobile02Motor car02Automóvil02Propriété03Properties03Propiedad03Revenu économique04Income04Renta04Economie transport05Economy of transports05Economía transporte05Demande transport06Transport demand06Demanda transporte06Simulation numérique07Numerical simulation07Simulación numérica07Modèle économétrique08Econometric model08Modelo econométrico08Analyse statistique09Statistical analysis09Análisis estadístico09Asymétrie revenuINC72001 1296-2120Doss. solidar. santé4Le modèle de microsimulation INES appliqué à une évaluation EX ANTE de l'effet de trois réformes sur le revenu des ménagesLes revenus sociaux en 2000LHOMMEAU (Bertrand)MURAT (Fabrice)LOISY (Christian)introd.Ministère de l'Emploi et de la solidarité - DREESFRA1 aut.INSEEFRA2 aut.Ministère de l'Emploi et de la solidarité - DREESFRA1 aut.67-882001FREINIST264653540001023075400600000© 2002 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.19 ref.521-02-16033PADossiers solidarité et santéFRAMicrosimulation model applied to an evaluation of the effect of three reforms on household incomeSocial benefits in 2000Entre 2001 et 2003, diverses mesures ont été engagées avec, dans le domaine fiscal, la baisse de l'impôt sur le revenu et l'instauration de la prime pour l'emploi et, dans le domaine social, la refonte des aides au logement dans le secteur locatif. Pour estimer l'effet redistributif de ces mesures - à comportements inchangés - on utilise ici le modèle de microsimulation INES, développé conjointement par la DREES et l'INSEE. Avec cet outil et sous l'hypothèse d'une population et de revenus primaires inchangés, l'ensemble des trois mesures citées ferait baisser le taux moyen de prélèvements nets de transferts de 0,8 point en législation 2001 et de 1,6 point en législation 2003. Cette diminution des taux de prélèvements nets de transferts est peu différenciée selon la position des ménages dans l'échelle des revenus initiaux. Au total, la réforme fiscale et celle des aides au logement auraient un impact positif mais faible sur les inégalités de revenus et sur la pauvreté monétaire5218I521Méthodologie01Methodology01Statistique02Statistics02Ménage03Household03Revenu04Income04Mesure05Measurement05FranceNG06FranceNG06336PSI 0308-518X3311The application of zone-design methodology in the 2001 UK censusMARTIN (D.)NOLAN (A.)TRANMER (M.)1949-19622 fig., 1 tabl.2001ENGengINIST15583 A820025 ref.531-02-11500PAEnvironment and planning. AGBRThis paper reviews the automated zone-design procedures adopted for the creation of 2001 census output geography in the United Kingdom. A series of output area design scenarios are applied to microsimulation data, allowing the effects of the new design constraints to be evaluated. The AA. identify the advantages of using an intra-area correlation measure for the maximization of social homogeneity within output areas.531208VI531Analyse spatiale56301Spatial analysis56301Autocorrélation spatiale56302Spatial autocorrelation56302Collecte des données56303Data collection56303Statistique56304Statistics56304Zonage56305Zoning56305Automatisation56306Automation56306Donnée56307Data56307Population56308Population56308Modèle56309Model56309Structure sociale56310Social structure56310Recensement de la population56311Population census56311Royaume-UniNG22United KingdomNG22U108!11,05,06!02,10,22U104!11,06,05!10,02,22U222!11,06,05!02,10217 0016-7363334The local implications of major job transformations in the city : a spatial microsimulation approachBALLAS (D.)CLARKE (G.P.)291-31110 fig., 4 tabl.2001ENGengINTG820051 ref.531-02-10941PAGeographical analysisUSALes AA. montrent que les techniques de modélisation sur la base de micro-simulations spatiales peuvent servir à analyser le marché local du travail et à évaluer les effets des politiques socio-économiques urbaines à l'échelle des ménages et des individus. Exemple de Leeds531123IV531Marché local du travail56301Local labour market56301Simulation56302Simulation56302Espace urbain56303Urban area56303Modèle d'entrée-sortie56304Input-output model56304Analyse spatiale56305Spatial analysis56305Comportement des ménages56306Household behaviour56306Impact économique56307Economic impact56307Fermeture d'usine56308Factory closure56308Trajet domicile-travail56309Journey to work56309Structure socio-économique56310Socio-economic system56310Economie urbaine56311Urban economy56311Royaume-UniNG22United KingdomNG22EnglandNG23EnglandNG23West YorkshireNG24West YorkshireNG24LeedsNG25LeedsNG25U102!01,08,07,11!24,22U111!10,06,05,01!24,22U222!23!24,01,04,05091 60Merlin : a decision support system for outdoor leisure planning. Development and test of a rule-based microsimulation model for the evaluation of alternative scenarios and planning optionsVAN MIDDELKOOP (M.)UniversityEindhovenNLDtutelle2001ENGdutFaculteit Bouwkunde TUEEindhoven90-6814-560-6XX+381 p.RESBGI8200531-02-10469PTMCollection BouwstenenNLDThe majority of models used in the outdoor leisure planning practice today lack the sophistication required to gain insight into individual tourist trip patterns. This thesis therefore aimed to develop and test a microsimulation model taking into account many facets of outdoor leisure trips and mutual dependencies among these facets and among subsequent leisure trips. Microsimulation offers the opportunity to build more comprehensive models of leisure choices by combining behavioural hypotheses and relationships with regard to the facets that comprise the decisions. - (AGD)531151IV531Décision56301Decision56301Loisir56302Leisure56302Tourisme56303Tourism56303Simulation56304Simulation56304Modèle56305Model56305Comportement56306Behaviour56306Choix spatial56307Spatial choice56307Pays-BasNG22Netherlands (The)NG22Loisirs de plein air56308Outdoor recreation56308Trajet56309Trip56309U102!01,07,09,05!22U105!02,07,01,06!22U222!02!01,07,09,050422001University. Eindhoven. NLDPhD Thesis : Geography 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1739Comparison of low-fidelity TRANSIMS and high-fidelity CORSIM highway Simulation models with intelligent transportation System dataEvaluating intelligent transportation systems, advanced traveler information systems, and other artificial intelligence applicationsRILETT (L. R.)KIM (Kyu-Ok)RANEY (Bryan)Department of Civil Engineering and Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University SystemCollege Station, TX 77843USA1 aut.Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University SystemCollege Station, TX 77843USA2 aut.3 aut.National Research Council. Transportation Research BoardWashington, DC 20418USApatr.1-82000ENGINIST10459B3540000994228600100000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.16 ref.01-0445088PCATransportation research recordUSAIn recent years there has been increased emphasis in the transportation modeling field on replacing macroscopic supply functions with simulation models. For example, the highway supply relationship in the Transportation Analysis and Simulation System (TRANSIMS) is based on a low-fidelity microsimulation model. How the TRANSIMS low-fidelity highway simulation module compares with a high-fidelity model and with empirical observations from intelligent transportation system (ITS) implementation projects has been examined. A section of Interstate 10 in Houston, Texas, was used as a test bed and ITS data were obtained for calibration and validation purposes. For comparison, the high-fidelity CORSIM model, which is used extensively in North America for operational analyses, was calibrated and tested with the same data. The two models did equally well at replicating the baseline volume data. In addition, the mean travel time output from the calibrated TRANSIMS model tended to be about 20 percent greater than the mean travel time from the calibrated CORSIM model. In general, the observed travel times were found to lie between the simulated values from the TRANSIMS and CORSIM models. More important, the link and corridor travel time variability appeared to be significantly less than the observed travel time variability. It is hypothesized that this difference may affect certain measures of effectiveness, such as automobile emissions, that will be used by transportation planners.001D15C001D15BTransport routier01Road transportation01Transporte por carretera01Système transport02Transportation system02Sistema de transporte02Système intelligent03Intelligent system03Sistema inteligente03Simulation numérique04Numerical simulation04Simulación numérica04Essai pilote05Pilot test05Prueba en instalación experimental05TexasNG06TexasNG06TexasNG06Modèle origine destination07Origin destination model07Modelo origen destinación07Etalonnage08Calibration08Contraste08Volume trafic09Capacity of traffic09Volumen tráfico09Heure de pointe10Rush hour10Hora punta10Heure creuse11Off peak hour11Hora poca actividad11Distance12Distance12Distancia12Vitesse déplacement13Speed13Velocidad desplazamiento13Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15CORSIMINC72TRANSIMSINC73Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG316Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board79USA2000-01 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1031-2Evaluation of a three-step method for choosing the number of bootstrap repetitionsStudies in estimation and testingANDREWS (Donald W. K.)BUCHINSKY (Moshe)HSIAO (Cheng)ed.PERRIGNE (Isabelle)ed.Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale UniversityNew Haven, CT 06520-8281USA1 aut.Department of Economics, Brown University, Box BProvidence, RI 02912USA2 aut.National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts AvenueCambridge, MA 02138USA2 aut.INSEE-CREST, 15 Boulevard Gabriel Péri92245 MalakoffFRA2 aut.Department of Economics, University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity Park, Los Angeles, CA 90089 0253USA1 aut.2 aut.345-3862001ENGINIST164603540000956024500900000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.16 ref.01-0444475PCAJournal of econometricsNLDThis paper provides a variety of Monte Carlo simulations that evaluate the finite-sample performance of the three-step method for choosing the number of bootstrap repetitions, suggested by Andrews and Buchinsky (Econometrica 67 (2000) 23-51). The simulations cover bootstrap standard errors, confidence intervals, tests, and p-values. Three commonly used econometric applications are considered: linear regression, binary probit, and quantile regression. In brief, we find that the three-step method works very well in all of the contexts examined here. We also find that the number of bootstrap repetitions commonly used in econometric applications is much less than needed to achieve accurate bootstrap quantities.001A02H02N2001A02H02G001A02H02HMéthode statistique01Statistical method01Método estadístico01Econométrie02Econometrics02Econometría02Bootstrap03Bootstrap03Bootstrap03Asymétrie04Asymmetry04Asimetría04Estimation statistique05Statistical estimation05Estimación estadística05Estimation paramètre06Parameter estimation06Estimación parámetro06Limite tolérance07Tolerance limit07Límite tolerancia07Limite confiance08Confidence limit08Límite confianza08Estimation non paramétrique10Non parametric estimation10Estimación no paramétrica10Quantile13Quantile13Cuantila13Simulation14Simulation14Simulación14Estimation erreur15Error estimation15Estimación error15Estimation densité16Density estimation16Estimación densidad16Intervalle confiance17Confidence interval17Intervalo confianza17Méthode Monte Carlo18Monte Carlo method18Método Monte Carlo18Erreur systématique19Bias19Error sistemático19Méthode à pas40Step method40Método a paso40Simulation numérique43Numerical simulation43Simulación numérica43Ecart type44Standard deviation44Desviación típica44Modèle économétrique47Econometric model47Modelo econométrico47Régression linéaire48Linear regression48Regresión lineal48Régression statistique49Statistical regression49Regresión estadística4962J05INC7062G15INC86Estimateur SiddiquiCD96Siddiqui estimatorCD96Loi asymptotiqueCD97Asymptotic distributionCD97Méthode 3 pasCD98Three step methodCD98316&dquot;Camps Econometrics&dquot; ConferenceCatalina Island USA1998-05 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1031-2Two-step estimation of semiparametric censored regression modelsStudies in estimation and testingKHAN (Shakeeb)POWELL (James L.)HSIAO (Cheng)ed.PERRIGNE (Isabelle)ed.Department of Economics, Harkness Hall, PO Box 27056, University of RochesterRochester, NY 14627-0156USA1 aut.Department of Economics, University of California at BerkeleyBerkeley, CA 94720-3880USA2 aut.Department of Economics, University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity Park, Los Angeles, CA 90089 0253USA1 aut.2 aut.73-1102001ENGINIST164603540000956024500200000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.3/401-0443945PCAJournal of econometricsNLDRoot-n-consistent estimators of the regression coefficients in the linear censored regression model under conditional quantile restrictions on the error terms were proposed by Powell (Journal of Econometrics 25 (1984) 303-325, 32 (1986a) 143-155). While those estimators have desirable asymptotic properties under weak regularity conditions, simulation studies have shown these estimators to exhibit a small sample bias in the opposite direction of the least squares bias for censored data. This paper introduces two-step estimators for these models which minimize convex objective functions, and are designed to overcome this finite-sample bias. The paper gives regularity conditions under which the proposed two-step estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal; a Monte Carlo study compares the finite sample behavior of the proposed methods with their one-step counterparts.001A02H02G001A02H02H001A02H02J001A02H02N2Estimation statistique01Statistical estimation01Estimación estadística01Estimation paramètre02Parameter estimation02Estimación parámetro02Comportement asymptotique03Asymptotic behavior03Comportamiento asintótico03Quantile04Quantile04Cuantila04Estimation non paramétrique06Non parametric estimation06Estimación no paramétrica06Echantillon censuré07Censored sample07Muestra censurada07Méthode moindre carré08Least squares method08Método cuadrado menor08Régression linéaire09Linear regression09Regresión lineal09Estimation linéaire11Linear estimation11Estimación lineal11Régression statistique12Statistical regression12Regresión estadística12Méthode statistique13Statistical method13Método estadístico13Econométrie14Econometrics14Econometría14Régularité15Regularity15Regularidad15Méthode Monte Carlo16Monte Carlo method16Método Monte Carlo16Fonction convexe17Convex function17Función convexa17Fonction objectif18Objective function18Función objetivo18Méthode un pas20One step method20Método un paso20Méthode à pas21Step method21Método a paso21Maximum vraisemblance22Maximum likelihood22Maxima verosimilitud22Méthode semiparamétrique41Semiparametric method41Método semiparamétrico41Modèle régression44Regression model44Modelo regresión44Estimateur convergent45Consistent estimator45Estimador convergente45Coefficient régression47Regression coefficient47Coeficiente regresión47Modèle linéaire48Linear model48Modelo lineal48Estimation erreur50Error estimation50Estimación error50Modèle économétrique51Econometric model51Modelo econométrico51Petit échantillon53Small sample53Pequeña muestra53Erreur systématique54Bias54Error sistemático54Estimation biaisée55Biased estimation55Estimación sesgada5562G20INC70processus convexCD96Convex processCD96Orthogonalité asymptotiqueCD97Asymptotic orthogonalityCD97Régression quantileCD98Quantile regressionCD98Estimation scoreCD99Score estimationCD99316&dquot;Camps Econometrics&dquot; ConferenceCatalina Island USA1998-05 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1719Toronto area car ownership study : A retrospective interview and its applicationsTransportation data, statistics, and information technologyROORDA (Matthew J.)MOHAMMADIAN (Abolfazl)MILLER (Eric J.)McCormick Rankin Corporation, 2655 North Sheridan WayMississauga, Ontario L5K 2P8CAN1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 Saint George StreetToronto, Ontario M5S 1A4CAN2 aut.3 aut.National Research Council. Transportation Research BoardWashington, DC 20418USApatr.69-762001ENGINIST10459B3540000994232800900000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.24 ref.01-0437188PCATransportation research recordUSARecent work in the area of comprehensive transportation modeling systems in a microsimulation framework, more specifically auto ownership modeling, has recognized the need for increased experimentation with dynamic models. Implicitly, dynamic models require longitudinal data. A Toronto area car ownership study was conducted to design and administer a longitudinal survey to fulfill the data requirements for such a dynamic model, to validate the survey results, and to conduct preliminary analysis on those results. An in-depth retrospective telephone survey was conducted with the help of a computer aid in Toronto, Canada. Simple univariate analyses were conducted on the data to determine the relationship between characteristics of the household and the occurrence of vehicle transactions, the choice of vehicle type, the duration a vehicle is held, and the degree of consumer loyalty to different types of vehicles.001D15CTrafic routier urbain01Urban road traffic01Tráfico vial urbano01OntarioNG02OntarioNG02OntarioNG02Automobile03Motor car03Automóvil03Propriété04Properties04Propiedad04Condition utilisation05Condition of use05Condición utilización05Simulation numérique06Numerical simulation06Simulación numérica06Modèle dynamique07Dynamic model07Modelo dinámico07Collecte donnée08Data gathering08Recolección dato08Enquête09Survey09Encuesta09Analyse transactionnelle10Transactional analysis10Análisis transaccional10Durée service11Service life11Duración servicio11Facteur sociodémographique12Sociodemographic factor12Factor sociodemográfico12Type véhicule13Vehicle type13Tipo vehículo13Critère décision14Decision criterion14Criterio decisión14Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15CanadaNGCanadaNGCanadaNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG309Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board79USA2000-01 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1733Car ownership dynamics seen through the follow-up of cohorts : Comparison of France and the United KingdomTransportation network planningDARGAY (Joyce M.)MADRE (Jean-Loup)BERRI (Akli)Economic and Social Research Council Transport Studies Unit, University College London, Gower StreetLondon WC1E E 6BTGBR1 aut.Institut National de Récherche sur les Transports et Leur Sécurité, Département Économie et Sociologie des Transports, 2 Avenue du Général Malleret-Joinville94114 ArcueilFRA2 aut.3 aut.National Research Council. Transportation Research BoardWashington, DC 20418USApatr.31-382000ENGINIST10459B3540000994230200500000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.7 ref.01-0437051PCATransportation research recordUSAThe dynamics of car ownership based on age-cohort data constructed from repeated cross-section surveys is investigated for France and the United Kingdom, both nationally and for different geographic areas. Two different modeling strategies are used : a demographic approach and a dynamic econometric approach. The demographic approach is primarily oriented toward long-term forecasting. It takes into account changes In car ownership over the life cycle for each generation, differences between generations, and period effects explained by income and prices. The dynamic econometric approach is mainly concerned with estimating the elasticity of car ownership with respect to income and prices in the short and long run. It is based on a dynamic model in which household car ownership is specified as a function of income, prices, sociodemographic factors, and previous car ownership. The results using the two approaches are quite similar. The income elasticity is significantly higher in the United Kingdom than in France, is higher in rural than in urban areas, and decreases over time as car ownership increases. Generation gaps, which have been important between older generations, are not significant for households whose head was born after the 1940s, which implies that the diffusion of car ownership over generations is nearing completion. In addition, a declining income elasticity confirms a progressive evolution toward saturation. Finally, car ownership is considerably more sensitive to car purchase prices than to gasoline prices and both appear to be more significant in densely populated zones than in rural areas.001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Automobile02Motor car02Automóvil02Simulation numérique03Numerical simulation03Simulación numérica03Modèle dynamique04Dynamic model04Modelo dinámico04FranceNG05FranceNG05FranciaNG05Royaume UniNG06United KingdomNG06Reino UnidoNG06Modèle économétrique07Econometric model07Modelo econométrico07Facteur sociodémographique08Sociodemographic factor08Factor sociodemográfico08Collecte donnée09Data gathering09Recolección dato09Enquête10Survey10Encuesta10Propriété11Properties11Propiedad11Analyse statistique12Statistical analysis12Análisis estadístico12Etude comparative13Comparative study13Estudio comparativo13Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG309Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board79USA2000-01 Agenda 2000 : Conséquences sur les exploitations de grandes cultures en Poitou-Charentes. Impacts sur les revenus, les assolements et alternatives pour les exploitations agricoles. Situation et perspectives pour la filière collecte en grandes culturesAgenda 2000 : Consequences on cash crops farm holdings in the region of Poitou-Charentes. Impact on farm incomes, crop rotations and alternatives for the farm holdings. Situation and prospects for the collection sectorZAHM (Frédéric)CHATELIER (Vincent)PIET (Laurent)KERVEGANT (Eric)MILLET (Guy)SOURIE (Jean Claude)COLSON (François)Institut de recherche pour l'ingénierie de l'agriculture et de l'environnementAntonyFRAINRA. Laboratoire d'études et de recherches économiquesNantesFRA2000FREfreeng2 vol. (217, 69) p.ill.CEMAGREF00-0460INISTGR 17243540000924199400000000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.12 p.01-0434921RMFRAAgenda 2000 : Impact on arable crop farms in Poitou-Charentes (southwestern France)L'étude évalue les conséquences de la nouvelle réforme de la politique agricole commune sur les exploitations de grandes cultures en région Poitou-Charentes. Elle identifie également les différentes possibilités d'adaptation de ces exploitations. L'étude s'attache enfin à caractériser le secteur de la collecte de grains et ses enjeux dans ce nouvel environnement économique. L'impact de la réforme est évalué à partir de 3 méthodes complémentaires : la première simule l'évolution du revenu des exploitations à partir des données du réseau d'information comptable agricole (RICA). La deuxième utilise un modèle de programmation linéaire pour évaluer les ajustements à court terme des assolements et des revenus agricoles. La troisième étudie les effets régionaux de la réforme à partir de la construction d'un modèle appliqué d'équilibre général régional. Avec Agenda 2000, le revenu des exploitations de grandes cultures baisse en moyenne de 18 % lorsque les gains de productivité sur la période sont pris en compte. S'agissant de l'évolution des cultures entre elles, la baisse des surfaces en tournesol est la plus marquée : de -20 % à -70 % selon les scénarii de prix étudiés. Sur les différentes altematives étudiées, il ressort en priorité deux résultats marquants : des économies potentielles sur les charges de mécanisation et un agrandissement de la surface de l'exploitation. Au niveau régional, la réforme entraînerait une faible progression de la valeur produite par les activités agricoles dans leur ensemble (+2% au mieux) mais une forte diminution de celle produite par les industries agroalimentaires (-15% en moyenne) ; du point de vue des consommateurs, la réforme serait bénéfique puisque permettant d'augmenter leur bien-être. L'enquête réalisée auprès de la filière régionale collecte de grains montre que négociants et coopératives sont aujourd'hui majoritairement préoccupés par le court terme : chute prévisible de leur marge, organisation interne suite à la loi sur la réduction du temps de travail et réalisation d'investissement pour le respect des nouvelles règles de sécurité mais également pour le développement d'une politique de qualité. Enfin, les enjeux majeurs identifiés portent sur la capacité des organismes stockeurs à supporter une nouvelle baisse des marges et la mise en place d'une organisation de la production pour répondre à un marché de plus en plus ouvert et segmenté.430A02D002A32A04002A35A07Exploitation agricole01Farming01Explotación agrícola01Politique agricoleINC02Impact économique03Economic impact03Impacto económico03Assolement04Crop shift04Sucesión cultivo04Collecte05Gathering05Colecta05Economie régionaleINC07Marché économiqueINC08Production végétaleINC09Poitou CharentesNG20Poitou CharentesNG20Poitou CharentesNG20Union européenneINC21Etude régionaleINC27Etude technicoéconomiqueINC28Estimation étatINC29Etude impactINC30PerspectiveINC31Agenda 2000INC68Système agraireINC69Système exploitation agricoleINC70Système productionINC71Plante céréalièreINC72Plante oléagineuseINC73Helianthus annuusINC74Coopération agricoleINC76Organisme stockeurINC77GrainINC78CéréaleINC79Graine oléagineuseINC80Graine tournesolINC81Aide financièreINC82ModélisationINC84Programmation linéaireINC85Simulation numériqueINC87Modèle équilibre généralINC88RICA (réseau d'information comptable agricole)INC891997INC902002INC912004INC921997-2004INC93Grande cultureCD96Arable cropCD96Politique agricole commune (CE)CD97Common Agricultural Policy (EC)CD97Política agrícola común (CE)CD97REVENU DE L'EXPLOITATIONCD98FARM INCOMECD98RENTA DE LA EXPLOTACIONCD98ADAPTATION DE LA PRODUCTIONCD99ADJUSTMENT OF PRODUCTIONCD99AJUSTE AGRARIOCD99FranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEconométrieINC33Economie agricoleINC34Modèle économétriqueINC36Industrie alimentaireINC37Production agricoleINC38302 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1710Modeling four-directional pedestrian flowsTraffic flow theory and highway capacity 2000BLUE (Victor J.)ADLER (Jeffrey L.)Planning and Program Management Group, New York State Department of Transportation, 4 Burnett BoulevardPoughkeepsie, NY 12603USA1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, Center for Infrastructure and Transportation Studies, Rensselaer Polytechnic InstituteTroy, NY 12180-3590USA2 aut.National Research Council. Transportation Research BoardWashington, DC 20418USApatr.20-272000ENGINIST10459B3540000994234400300000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.21 ref.01-0430756PCATransportation research recordUSAThe objective of this study is to explore the modeling of multidirectional pedestrian flows. The complex interactions between flow entities within m-directional space present challenges that cannot be readily handled by existing bidirectional flow models. A cellular automata microsimulation model for four-directional flow is prescribed. This model, built on previous bidirectional models developed by the authors, additionally seeks to manage cross-directional conflicts. Performance of this function in the simulation of unidirectional, bidirectional, cross-directional, and four-directional flows is presented. The applications extend to m-directional terminal facility design and to four-directional street corners, a vital component In any network model of pedestrians.001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Trafic piéton02Pedestrian traffic02Tráfico peatones02Ecoulement trafic03Traffic flow03Flujo tráfico03Direction04Direction04Dirección04Simulation numérique05Numerical simulation05Simulación numérica05Conflit06Conflict06Conflicto06Implémentation07Implementation07Ejecución07Vitesse déplacement08Speed08Velocidad desplazamiento08Densité09Density09Densidad09Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15302Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board79USA2000-01 0003-4975ATHSAKAnn. thorac. surg.715SUPEstimated event-free life expectancy after autograft aortic root replacement in adultsProceedings of the VIII International Symposium on Cardiac Bioprostheses, Cancun, Mexico, November 3-5, 2000TAKKENBERG (Johanna J. M.)EIJKEMANS (Marinus J. C.)VAN HERWERDEN (Lex A.)STEYERBERG (Ewout W.)GRUNKEMEIER (Gary L.)HABBEMA (J. Dik F.)BOGERS (Ad J. J. C.)CARPENTIER (Alain)ed.POMAR (José L.)ed.Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, and the Center for Clinical Decision Sciences, Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center RotterdamRotterdamNLDDepartment of Cardiovascular Surgery and Organ Transplantation, Hôpital Europeen Georges PompidouParisFRA1 aut.Department of Surgery, Hospital Clinic, University of BarcelonaBarcelonaESP2 aut.S344-S3482001ENGINIST137793540000982805503000000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.11 ref.01-0305354PCAThe Annals of thoracic surgeryUSABackground. Autograft aortic root replacement is an established therapeutic option for young adults with aortic valve disease. Unfortunately, most series are small with a limited follow-up. Meta-analysis and microsimulation modeling were used to predict long-term outcome based on currently available midterm data. Methods. We combined our center's experience with autograft aortic root replacement in 85 adult patients in a meta-analysis with reported results of three other hospitals. The outcomes of this meta-analysis were entered in a microsimulation model, calculating (event-free) life expectancy after autograft aortic root replacement. Results. The pooled results comprised 380 patients with a total follow-up of 1,077 patient-years. Mean age was 37 years (range 16 to 68 years). Male/female ratio was 2.7. Operative mortality was 2.6% (n = 10); during follow-up 6 more patients died. Linearized annual risk estimates were 0.5% for thromboembolism, 0.3% for endocarditis, and 0.4% for nonstructural valve failure. Structural autograft failure requiring reoperation occurred in 5 patients, and a Weibull function was constructed accordingly. Using this information, the microsimulation model predicted age- and gender-specific mean, reoperation-free, and event-free life expectancy. Conclusions. Based on current evidence the calculated average autograft-related reoperation-free life expectancy is 16 years. The combination of meta-analysis and microsimulation provides a promising and powerful tool for estimating long-term outcome after aortic valve replacement.002B25EHomogreffe01Homograft01Homoinjerto01Valvule aortique02Aortic valve02Válvula aórtica02Valvule pulmonaire03Pulmonary valve03Válvula pulmonar03Adulte04Adult04Adulto04Estimation05Estimation05Estimación05Exploration06Exploration06Exploración06Métaanalyse07Metaanalysis07Mataanálisis07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Pronostic09Prognosis09Pronóstico09Mortalité10Mortality10Mortalidad10Morbidité11Morbidity11Morbilidad11Long terme12Long term12Largo plazo12Méthode analyse13Analysis method13Método análisis13Méthode Monte Carlo17Monte Carlo method17Método Monte Carlo17Intervention RossINC86Espérance vieINC87HommeHumanHombreGreffe37Graft37Injerto37Chirurgie38Surgery38Cirugía38211International Symposium on Cardiac Bioprostheses8Cancun MEX2000-11-03 0959-8049Eur. j. cancer : (1990)377Impact of systematic false-negative test results on the performance of faecal occult blood screeningLOEVE (F.)BOER (R.)VAN OORTMARSSEN (G. J.)VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (M.)HABBEMA (J. D. F.)Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Erasmus University Rotterdam, PO Box 1738.3000 DR RotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.5 aut.912-9172001ENGINIST126483540000952639401300000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.28 ref.01-0297285PAEuropean journal of cancer : (1990)GBRThe impact of systematic false-negative test results on mortality reduction and on programme sensitivity of annual faecal occult blood testing in ages 50-84 years is explored using a microsimulation model. We made calculations for test sensitivities of 80, 50 and 30%. In order to reproduce a cancer detection rate of 2.2 per 1000 at the first screening, the corresponding mean preclinical sojourn times had to be 1.42, 2.30 and 3.84 years, respectively. The fraction systematic results among the false-negative results is varied between 0 and 100%. With 80% test sensitivity, the reduction in mortality due to screening decreases from 25% without systematic results to 23% when all false-negative results are systematic and the programme sensitivity decreases from 63 to 58%. With 30% test sensitivity, mortality reduction decreases from 21 to 11% and programme sensitivity decreases from 52 to 27%. The impact of systematic false-negative lest results is important if annual FOBT screening is considered.002B24O14Carcinome01Carcinoma01Carcinoma01Côlon02Colon02Colón02Rectum03Rectum03Recto03Dépistage04Medical screening04Descubrimiento04Examen laboratoire05Laboratory investigations05Examen laboratorio05Sang06Blood06Sangre06Fèces07Feces07Heces07Sensibilité08Sensitivity08Sensibilidad08Spécificité09Specificity09Especificidad09Faux négatif10False negative10Negativo falso10Simulation ordinateur13Computer simulation13Simulación computadora13Evaluation performance17Performance evaluation17Evaluación prestación17Technique18Technique18Técnica18Diagnostic19Diagnosis19Diagnóstico19Homme20Human20Hombre20Sang occulteINC86Tumeur maligne37Malignant tumor37Tumor maligno37Appareil digestif pathologie38Digestive diseases38Aparato digestivo patología38Intestin pathologie39Intestinal disease39Intestino patología39Côlon pathologie40Colonic disease40Colón patología40Rectum pathologie41Rectal disease41Recto patología41204 1076-0342JITSE4J. infrastruct. syst.72Challenging issues in modeling deterioration of combined sewersWIRAHADIKUSUMAH (Reini)ABRAHAM (Dulcy)ISELEY (Tom)Blackhawk-PAS, 220 Briar Creek RoadGreer, SC 29650USA1 aut.2 aut.School of Civ. Engrg., Purdue Univ.West Lafayette, IN 47907USA3 aut.77-842001ENGINIST262693540000989137600500000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.25 ref.01-0292061PAJournal of infrastructure systemsUSAThe understanding of sewer deterioration mechanisms helps asset managers in developing deterioration models to estimate whether sewers have deteriorated sufficiently for likely collapses. While an accurate deterioration model is a significant component of an infrastructure management system, research in the area of deterioration modeling of sewer systems in the United States is still in its infancy. Research in the area of highways has matured and has become the basis for studies in sewer systems. Modeling the deterioration of highway systems involves methods that vary in complexity from Markov-chains-based models to econometric models. This paper presents the use of Markov-chains-based models in conjunction with nonlinear optimization for extending infrastructure management modeling to sewer systems. Modeling the structural condition of sewers using the Markov-chains-based model has its own challenges. This paper discusses the problems encountered in developing deterioration models for sewer management systems and suggests some possible improvements for deterioration modeling of combined sewer systems.001D14K001D14E02001D14C03295Egout unitaire01Combined sewer01Escurrimiento unitario01Détérioration02Deterioration02Deterioración02Simulation numérique03Numerical simulation03Simulación numérica03Analyse mécanisme04Mechanism analysis04Análisis mecánismo04Chaîne Markov05Markov chain05Cadena Markov05Modèle économétrique06Econometric model06Modelo econométrico06Gestion07Management07Gestión07Etude cas08Case study08Estudio caso08IndianaNG09IndianaNG09IndianaNG09Classification10Classification10Clasificación10Analyse dommage11Failure analysis11Análisis avería11Régression linéaire12Linear regression12Regresión lineal12Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG197 0921-3449Resour. conserv. recycl.322Technology adoption in agriculture: implications for ground water conservation in the Texas high plainsARABIYAT (Talah S.)SEGARRA (Eduardo)JOHNSON (Jason L.)Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Box 42132, Texas Tech UniversityLubbock, TX 79409-2132USA1 aut.2 aut.Texas Agricultural Extension Service, Texas A&M Research and Extension Center, 7887 US Hwy., 87 North, Texas A&M UniversitySan Angelo, TX, 76901-9714USA3 aut.147-1562001ENGINIST168393540000953430700400000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.20 ref.01-0287257PAResources, conservation and recyclingNLDThe impact of technology adoption (advanced irrigation technologies and anticipated biotechnological advances) on the sustainability of agricultural activities in the Texas High Plains of the US is evaluated in this study. Specifically, a county-wide dynamic optimization model is used to (a) determine optimal ground water use levels and cropping patterns, and (b) evaluate the impacts of irrigation technology and biotechnology adoption on ground water use. The results indicate that current cropland allocation and levels of advanced irrigation technology adoption are not close to optimal. Approaching the issue of sustainability, the results show that the net present value of returns trade-off to achieve ground water conservation, in terms of what producers would have to give up to achieve ground water supply stability, would be relatively small.001E01N03002A32C03B226A03Agriculture01Agriculture01Agricultura01Biotechnologie02Biotechnology02Biotecnología02Irrigation03Irrigation03Irrigación03Progrès technique04Technical progress04Progreso técnico04Technologie avancée05Advanced technology05Tecnología avanzada05Approvisionnement eau06Water supply06Alimentación agua06Conservation eau07Water conservation07Conservación agua07Impact économique08Economic impact08Impacto económico08Impact environnement09Environment impact09Impacto medio ambiente09Assolement10Crop shift10Sucesión cultivo10Occupation sol11Land use11Ocupación terreno11Production végétale12Plant production12Produccíon vegetal12Rendement14Yield14Rendimiento14Rentabilité15Profitability15Rentabilidad15Modélisation16Modeling16Modelización16Optimisation économique17Economic optimization17Optimización económica17Simulation numérique18Numerical simulation18Simulación numérica18Modèle dynamique19Dynamic model19Modelo dinámico19Modèle économétrique20Econometric model20Modelo econométrico20Modèle simulation21Simulation model21Modelo simulación21Scénario22Script22Argumento22Eau souterraine23Ground water23Agua subterránea23Nappe eau24Aquifers24Capa agua24TexasNG25TexasNG25TexasNG25Grandes Plaines AmériqueNG26Great Plains of AmericaNG26Grandes Llanuras AméricaNG26Etude impact27Impact study27Estudio impacto27Etude régionale28Regional study28Estudio regional28Etude sur modèle29Model study29Estudio sobre modelo29Etude technicoéconomique30Technicoeconomic study30Estudio técnicoeconómico30Aquifère OgallalaNGINC90Comté Hale TexasNGINC91Agriculture durableCD96Sustainable agricultureCD96Agricultura sostenibleCD96ADOPTION DE L'INNOVATIONCD97INNOVATION ADOPTIONCD97ADOPCION DE INNOVACIONESCD97UTILISATION DE L'EAUCD98WATER USECD98USO DEL AGUACD98Irrigation LEPACD99Low Energy Precision Application irrigationCD99Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNGEconomie agricole33Agricultural economics33Economía agricola33Economie environnement34Environment economy34Economía medio ambiente34Environnement35Environment35Medio ambiente35Gestion ressource eau36Water resource management36Gestión recurso agua36Hydrogéologie37Hydrogeology37Hidrogeología37Socioéconomie38Socioeconomics38Socioeconomía38Système agraire40Agricultural system40Sistema agrario40Système production41Production system41Sistema producción41197 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1737Benefits of split intersectionsGeometric desing and effects on traffic operations 2000: highway and facility designBARED (Joe G.)KAISAR (Evangelos I.)Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center, FHWA, 6300 George-town PikeMcLean, VA 22101-2296USA1 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of MarylandCollege Park, MD 20742USA2 aut.Transportation Research BoardWashington, DCUSApatr.34-412000ENGINIST10459B3540000939345600500000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.8 ref.01-0234905PCATransportation research recordUSAAs urban and suburban intersections become more congested, a likely remedy for recurring traffic jams is grade separation in the form of diamond or tight diamond interchanges. A more economical intersection configuration to relieve congestion has been built overseas. The major highway is separated into two-directional, one-way roads comparable to an at-grade diamond junction known as the split intersection. The split intersection facilitates smoother flows with less driver delay, mainly by reducing the number of required signal phases from four to three. The success of converting to the split intersection has been analyzed by using deterministic methods that showed increased capacity and noticeable reduction in delay. The analysis methodology relies on a microsimulation technique to predicate previous claims and provide economic benefits. Comparisons of vehicular delay between the single and the split intersection revealed substantial savings in travel delay, particularly for higher entering volumes and higher left-turning movements. The findings provide guidance to planners and designers on the expected benefits of converting a four-lane by four-lane single intersection to the split intersection.001D14O02001D15C295Croisement routier01Cross roads01Intersección carretera01Intersection02Intersection02Intersección02Evaluation performance03Performance evaluation03Evaluación prestación03Zone urbaine04Urban area04Zona urbana04Zone suburbaine05Suburban zone05Zona suburbana05Congestion trafic06Traffic congestion06Congestión tráfico06Distribution07Distribution07Distribución07Ecoulement trafic08Traffic flow08Flujo tráfico08Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15162Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board79Washington, DC USA2000-01 0009-7322CIRCAZCirculation : (N. Y. N.Y.)10311Prognosis after aortic valve replacement with a bioprosthesis: Predictions based on meta-analysis and microsimulationPUVIMANASINGHE (J. P. A.)STEYERBERG (E. W.)TAKKENBERG (J. J. M.)EIJKEMANS (M. J. C.)VAN HERWERDEN (L. A)BOGERS (A. J. J. C.)HABBEMA (J. D. F.)Center for Clinical Decision Sciences, Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical CenterRotterdamNLDDepartment of Cardio-thoracic Surgery, Erasmus University Medical CenterRotterdamNLD1535-15412001ENGINIST59073540000987351500900000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.32 ref.01-0214807PACirculation : (New York, N.Y.)USABackground-Bioprostheses are widely used as an aortic valve substitute, but knowledge about prognosis is still incomplete. The purpose of this study was to provide insight into the age-related life expectancy and actual risks of reoperation and valve-related events of patients after aortic valve replacement with a porcine bioprosthesis. Methods and Results-We conducted a meta-analysis of 9 selected reports on stented porcine bioprostheses, including 5837 patients with a total follow-up of 31 874 patient-years. The annual rates of valve thrombosis, thromboembolism, hemorrhage, and nonstructural dysfunction were 0.03%, 0.87%, 0.38%, and 0.38%, respectively. The annual rate of endocarditis was estimated at 0.68% for >6 months of implantation and was 5 times as high during the first 6 months. Structural valve deterioration was described with a Weibull model that incorporated lower risks for older patients. These estimates were used to parameterize, calibrate, and validate a mathematical microsimulation model. The model was used to predict life expectancy and actual risks of reoperation and valve-related events after implantation for patients of different ages. For a 65-year-old male, these figures were 11.3 years, 28%, and 47%, respectively. Conclusions-The combination of meta-analysis with microsimulation enabled a detailed insight into the prognosis after aortic valve replacement with a bioprosthesis for patients of different ages. This information will be useful for patient counseling and clinical decision making. It also could serve as a baseline for the evaluation of newer valve types.002B25EHétérogreffe01Heterograft01Heteroinjerto01Origine animale02Animal origin02Origen animal02Porc03Pig03Cerdo03Homme04Human04Hombre04Valvule aortique05Aortic valve05Válvula aórtica05Pronostic06Prognosis06Pronóstico06Morbidité07Morbidity07Morbilidad07Mortalité08Mortality08Mortalidad08Métaanalyse09Metaanalysis09Mataanálisis09Simulation mathématique10Mathematical simulation10Simulación matemática10ArtiodactylaNSArtiodactylaNSArtiodactylaNSUngulataNSUngulataNSUngulataNSMammaliaNSMammaliaNSMammaliaNSVertebrataNSVertebrataNSVertebrataNSGreffe37Graft37Injerto37Chirurgie39Surgery39Cirugía39148 0733-4648J. appl. gerontol.201Effects of improved morbidity rates on active life expectancy and eligibility for long-term care servicesLADITKA (Sarah B.)LADITKA (James N.)State University of New YorkUSA1 aut.Syracuse UniversityUSA2 aut.39-562001ENGINIST219773540000987023000300000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.3/401-0208301PAJournal of applied gerontologyUSAThis study examines effects of better health on active life expectancy and eligibility for long-term care services, using data from the 1984-1990 Longitudinal Study ofAging and microsimulation techniques. Results show that better health increases total life expectancy (TLE), the proportion of life spent unimpaired, and the amount of time spent unimpaired. Women experience larger proportional increases in active life expectancy under assumptions of better health. Better health also reduces the proportion of men and women who would be eligible for long-term care services. However, better health decreases the proportion of men eligible for long-term care services more than it decreases the eligible proportion of women. The results reinforce the importance of focusing on policies designed to promote healthy lifestyles and to reduce the prevalence of chronic conditions.002B30A01CService santé01Health service01Servicio sanidad01Long terme02Long term02Largo plazo02Morbidité04Morbidity04Morbilidad04Longévité05Longevity05Longevidad05Santé07Health07Salud07Etats UnisNG10United StatesNG10Estados UnidosNG10Dépendance fonctionnelle13Functional dependence13Dependencia funcional13Evolution17Evolution17Evolución17Santé publique18Public health18Salud pública18Modèle simulation19Simulation model19Modelo simulación19Personne âgée20Elderly20Anciano20Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNGHommeHumanHombre141 0041-1655TRSCBJTransp. sci.351Modeling the commute activity-travel pattern of workers : Formulation and empirical analysisBHAT (Chandra)Department of Civil Engineering, ECJ 6.810, University of Texas at AustinAustin, Texas 78712USA1 aut.61-792001ENGINIST136983540000987320000500000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.32 ref.01-0202411PATransportation scienceUSAThis paper proposes a methodological framework to analyze the activity and travel pattern of workers during the evening commute. The framework uses a discrete-continuous econometric system to model jointly the decision to participate in an activity during the evening commute and the following attributes of the participation: activity type, activity duration, and travel time deviation to the activity location relative to the direct travel time from work to home. The model parameters are estimated using a sample of workers from the 1991 Boston Household Activity Survey. The paper also presents mathematical expressions to evaluate the effect of changes in sociodemographic variables and policy-relevant exogenous variables on the temporal pattern of trips and cold starts attributable to commute stops. The application of the model indicates that failure to accommodate the joint nature of the activity decisions during the evening commute can lead to misdirected policy actions for traffic congestion alleviation and for mobile-source emissions reduction.001D15ATransport voyageur01Passenger transportation01Transporte pasajero01Simulation numérique02Numerical simulation02Simulación numérica02Activité03Activity03Actividad03Itinéraire04Route04Itinerario04Soir05Evening05Tarde05Travailleur06Worker06Trabajador06Modèle économétrique07Econometric model07Modelo econométrico07Facteur sociodémographique08Sociodemographic factor08Factor sociodemográfico08Source information09Information source09Fuente información09Analyse multivariable10Multivariate analysis10Análisis multivariable10Durée trajet11Travel time11Duración trayecto11Calcul erreur12Error analysis12Cálculo error12Application13Application13Aplicación13141 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1001Notes on financial econometricsOpen forum on the current state and future challenges econometricsTAUCHEN (George)HSIAO (C.)ed.Department of Economics, Duke University, PO Box 90097, Social Science BuildingDurham, NC 27708-0097USA1 aut.Department of Economics, University of Southern California, University ParkLos Angeles, CA 90089-0253USA1 aut.57-642001ENGINIST164603540000940563101100000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/401-0184740PAJournal of econometricsNLDThe first part of the discussion reviews recent successes in modeling of discrete time financial data and argues that a direct approach is better suited than stochastic volatility. The second part reviews recent work on estimating continuous time models with emphasis on simulation-based techniques and joint estimation of the risk neutral and objective probability distributions.001A02H02N2001D01A01Méthode statistique01Statistical method01Método estadístico01Finance02Finance02Finanza02Prix03Price03Precio03Volatilité04Volatility04Volatibilidad04Econométrie06Econometrics06Econometría06Processus stochastique07Stochastic process07Proceso estocástico07Loi normale08Gaussian distribution08Curva Gauss08Economie mathématique09Mathematical economy09Economía matemática09Modèle statistique10Statistical model10Modelo estadístico10Indice économique11Economic index11Indice económico11Polynôme Hermite12Hermite polynomial12Polinomio Hermite12Temps continu13Continuous time13Tiempo continuo13Mouvement brownien14Brownian motion14Movimiento browniano14Méthode moment15Moment method15Método momento15Simulation16Simulation16Simulación16Modèle économétrique40Econometric model40Modelo econométrico40Article synthèse42Review42Artículo síntesis42Temps discret43Discrete time43Tiempo discreto43Donnée discrète44Discrete data44Variable discreta44Donnée financière45Financial data45Datos financieros45Modèle simulation47Simulation model47Modelo simulación47Estimation statistique48Statistical estimation48Estimación estadística48Loi probabilité49Probability distribution49Ley probabilidad49Loi risque neutreCD96Risk neutral distributionCD96Volatilité stochastiqueCD97Stochastic volatilityCD97Erreur fixation prixCD98Pricing errorCD98Econométrie financièreCD99Financial econometricsCD99126 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1001Achievements and challenges in econometric methodologyOpen forum on the current state and future challenges econometricsHENDRY (David F.)HSIAO (C.)ed.Department of Economics, Oxford UniversityOxfordGBR1 aut.Department of Economics, University of Southern California, University ParkLos Angeles, CA 90089-0253USA1 aut.7-102001ENGINIST164603540000940563100200000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.21 ref.01-0184725PAJournal of econometricsNLDDisputes about econometric methodology have abounded in econometrics, yet their attempted resolution has attracted only a small proportion of research elfort. Recently, computer-automated general-to-specific reductions have been shown to perform well in Monte Carlo experiments, recovering the DGP specification from a much larger general model with size and power close to commencing from the DGP itself, Thus, future developments appear promising, with many ideas awaiting implementation and both theoretical and simulation evaluation.001A02H02N2001D01A01Méthode statistique01Statistical method01Método estadístico01Econométrie02Econometrics02Econometría02Méthodologie03Methodology03Metodología03Etat actuel04State of the art04Estado actual04Economie mathématique05Mathematical economy05Economía matemática05Modèle statistique06Statistical model06Modelo estadístico06Indice économique07Economic index07Indice económico07Analyse assistée08Computer aided analysis08Análisis asistido08Méthode Monte Carlo09Monte Carlo method09Método Monte Carlo09Test Student10Student test10Prueba Student10Régression11Regression11Regresión11Modèle économétrique40Econometric model40Modelo econométrico40Méthode réduction42Reduction method42Método reducción42Spécification modèle44Model specification44Especificación modelo44Implémentation45Implementation45Ejecución45Sélection modèleCD96Model selectionCD96Ingénerie donnéeCD97Data miningCD97Gestion donnéeCD98Data managementCD98DGPCD99Data generation processCD99126 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.1012Nested random effects estimation in unbalanced panel dataANTWEILER (Werner)Faculty of Commerce, The University of British Columbia, 2053 Main MallVancouver, BC V6T 1Z2CAN1 aut.295-3132001ENGINIST164603540000974549900400000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.24 ref.01-0167055PAJournal of econometricsNLDPanel data in many econometric applications exhibit a nested (hierarchical) structure. For example, data on firms may be grouped by industry, or data on air pollution may be grouped by observation station within a city, city within a country, and by country. In these cases, one can control for unobserved group and sub-group effects using a nested-error component model. A double-nested unbalanced panel is examined and a corresponding maximum likelihood estimator is derived. A generalization to even higher-order nesting is feasible. A practical example and a Monte-Carlo simulation compare the new estimator against the non-nested ML estimator. The style of presentation is intended to aid applied econometricians in implementing the new ML estimator.001A02H02N2001A02H02B001D01A10Méthode statistique01Statistical method01Método estadístico01Econométrie02Econometrics02Econometría02Maximum vraisemblance03Maximum likelihood03Maxima verosimilitud03Erreur systématique04Bias04Error sistemático04Fonction vraisemblance05Likelihood function05Función verosimilitud05Théorie statistique06Statistical theory06Teoría estadística06Pollution air07Air pollution07Contaminación aire07Méthode Monte Carlo08Monte Carlo method08Método Monte Carlo08Economie mathématique09Mathematical economy09Economía matemática09Finance10Finance10Finanza10Gestion portefeuille11Portfolio management11Gestión cartera11Simulation12Simulation12Simulación12Echantillon13Sample13Muestra13Effet aléatoire40Random effect40Efecto aleatorio40Estimation statistique41Statistical estimation41Estimación estadística41Modèle économétrique42Econometric model42Modelo econométrico42Estimation erreur44Error estimation44Estimación error44Simulation numérique47Numerical simulation47Simulación numérica47113 1167-468732Vers une réduction des disparités hommes-femmes ?BONNET (C.)COLIN (C.)48-61graph.2000FREBDSP/FNG13403, FNCOLL880001-0163502PARETRAITE ET SOCIETEFRACet article dresse un état des lieux des différences constatées actuellement entre hommes et femmes en matière de retraite puis se livre à un exercice de prospective à l'horizon 2000 à l'aide d'un modèle de microsimulation dynamique.002B30A11FemmeWomanMujerActivité professionnelleProfessional activityActividad profesionalFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGModèleModelsModeloProjection perspectivePerspective projectionProyección perspectivaMarché travailLabour marketMercado trabajoAgeAgeEdadRetraiteRetirementJubilaciónHommeHumanHombreEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG113 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1729Transportation asset management: The value of enterprise-based financial reportingTransportation Management and EducationSTALEBRINK (Odd J.)GIFFORD (Jonathan L.)Department of Public and International Affairs and The Institute of Public Policy, George Mason UniversityFairfax, VA 22030USA1 aut.2 aut.National Research Council. Transportation Research BoardWashington, DC 20418USApatr.51-562000ENGINIST10459B3540000941357700700000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.32 ref.01-0158136PCATransportation research recordUSAThe adoption of enterprise-based financial reporting practices in the public transportation infrastructure has the potential to facilitate the use of profitability analysis and, thus, the management of public transportation infrastructure Assets. However, a major challenge for successful implementation is the ability to generate in a public setting what the Governmental Accounting Standards Board refers to as &dquot;satisfactory&dquot; system input values. Because market prices are not generated in these environments, they must be simulated. Two promising approaches for generating such measurements are reviewed: benefit-cost analysis and econometric studies of the productivity impacts of infrastructure investments (on productivity studies). Although the two approaches are subject to several weaknesses that inhibit them from generating satisfactory system input values, ongoing methodological advances in both indicate fair prospects for generating such values in the future. Therefore, a dismissal of enterprise financial reporting practices for public transportation infrastructure may be premature.001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Evaluation performance02Performance evaluation02Evaluación prestación02Gestion financière03Financial management03Administración financiera03Développement entreprise04Firm development04Desarrollo empresa04Résultat financier05Financial result05Gestion organisation06Organization management06Gestión organización06Transport public07Public transportation07Transporte público07Infrastructure transport08Transportation infrastructure08Infraestructura transporte08Simulation numérique09Numerical simulation09Simulación numérica09Analyse coût efficacité10Cost efficiency analysis10Análisis costo eficacia10Modèle économétrique11Econometric model11Modelo econométrico11Productivité12Productivity12Productividad12Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15106Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board79USA2000-01 0191-2615TRBMDYTransp. res., Part B : methodol.353Cellular automata microsimulation for modeling bi-directional pedestrian walkwaysBLUE (Victor J.)ADLER (Jeffrey L.)Planning and Program Management Group, New York State Department of Transportation, 4 Burnett BloulevardPoughkeepsie, NY 12603USA1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, Center for Infrastructure and Transportation Studies, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 110 8th St.Troy, NY 12180-3590USA2 aut.293-3122001ENGINIST12377B3540000973308100500000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.30 ref.01-0150746PATransportation research. Part B : methodologicalGBRPedestrian flow is inherently complex, more so than vehicular flow, and development of microscopic models of pedestrian flow has been a daunting task for researchers. This paper presents the use of Cellular automata (CA) microsimulation for modeling bi-directional pedestrian walkways. It is shown that a small rule set is capable of effectively capturing the behaviors of pedestrians at the micro-level while attaining realistic macro-level activity. The model provides for simulating three modes of bi-directional pedestrian flow: (a) flows in directionally separated lanes, (b) interspersed flow, and (c) dynamic multi-lane (DML) flow. The emergent behavior that arises from the model, termed CA-Ped, is consistent with well-established fundamental properties.001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Trafic piéton02Pedestrian traffic02Tráfico peatones02Passage piéton03Pedestrian walk03Pasaje peatones03Ecoulement trafic04Traffic flow04Flujo tráfico04Simulation numérique05Numerical simulation05Simulación numérica05Modèle microscopique06Microscopic model06Modelo microscópico06Automate cellulaire07Cellular automaton07Autómata celular07Densité08Density08Densidad08Vitesse déplacement09Speed09Velocidad desplazamiento09Ecoulement bidirectionnelINC72Ecoulement séparéINC73099 0168-8227DRCPE9Diabetes res. clin. pract.50SUP3The global diabetes model : user friendly version 3.0Methods of Modelling the Epidemiology of DiabetesBROWN (Jonathan Betz)RUSSELL (Allen)CHAN (Wiley)PEDULA (Kathryn)AICKIN (Mikel)BROWN (Jonathan Betz)ed.Center for Health Research, 3800 N. Interstate AvenuePortland, OR 97227-1110USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.5 aut.Center for Health Research, 3800 N. Interstate AvenuePortland, OR 97227-1110USA1 aut.S15-S462000ENGINIST207023540000936545400300000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.32 ref.01-0098949PADiabetes research and clinical practiceIRLThe attributes of Release 3.0 of the user friendly version (UFV) of the global diabetes model (GDM) are described and documented in detail. The GDM is a continuous stochastic microsimulation model of type 2 diabetes. Suitable for predicting the medical futures of both individuals with diabetes and representative diabetic populations, the GDM prediets medical events (complications of diabetes), survival, utilities, and medical care costs. Incidence rate functions for microvascular and macrovascular complications are based on a combination of published studies and analyses of data describing diabetic members of Kaiser Permanente Northwest Region, a non-profit group-model health maintenance organization. Active risk factors include average blood glucose (HbAle), systolic blood pressure (SBP), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), triglycerides, smoking status. and use of prophylactic aspirin. Events predicted include diabetic eye disease, diabetic nephropathy, peripheral neuropathy, amputation, myocardial infarction, stroke, peripheral artery disease, congestive heart failure, coronary artery surgery, coronary angioplasty, and death.002B28BDiabète01Diabetes mellitus01Diabetes01Simulation ordinateur02Computer simulation02Simulación computadora02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Facteur risque04Risk factor04Factor riesgo04Complication05Complication05Complicación05Homme20Human20Hombre20Endocrinopathie37Endocrinopathy37Endocrinopatía37064 0168-8227DRCPE9Diabetes res. clin. pract.50SUP3The Mt. Hood challenge : cross-testing two diabetes simulation modelsMethods of Modelling the Epidemiology of DiabetesBROWN (Jonathan Betz)PALMER (Andrew J.)BISGAARD (Peter)CHAN (Wiley)PEDULA (Kathryn)RUSSELL (Allen)BROWN (Jonathan Betz)ed.Center for Health Research, 3800 North Interstate ArenuePortland, OR 97227-1110USA1 aut.5 aut.6 aut.CORE Center for Outcomes Research, St. Johanns Ring 1394056 BaselCHE2 aut.Noro Nordisk Health CareCopenhagenDNK3 aut.Center for Health Research and Permanente Medical Group of the NorthwestPortland, OR 97227-1110USA4 aut.Center for Health Research, 3800 N. Interstate AvenuePortland, OR 97227-1110USA1 aut.S57-S642000ENGINIST207023540000936545400500000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.13 ref.01-0098867PADiabetes research and clinical practiceIRLStarting from identical patients with type 2 diabetes, we compared the 20-year predictions of two computer simulation models, a 1998 version of the IMIB model and version 2.17 of the Global Diabetes Model (GDM). Primary measures of outcome were 20-year eumulative rates of: survival, first (incident) acute myocardial infarction (AMI), first stroke, proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR), maero-albuminuria (gross proteinuria, or GPR), and amputation. Standardized test patients were newly diagnosed males aged 45 or 75, with high and low levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA_1c), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and serum lipids. Both models generated realistic results and appropriate responses to changes in risk factors, Compared with the GDM, the IMIB model predicted much higher rates of mortality and AMI, and fewer strokes. These differences can be explained by differences in model architecture (Markov vs, microsimulation), different evidence bases for cardiovascular prediction (Framingham Heart Study cohort vs. Kaiser Permanente patients), and isolated versus interdependent prediction of cardiovascular events. Compared with IMIB, GDM predicted much higher lifetime costs, because of lower mortality and the use of a different costing method. It is feasible to cross-validate and explicate dissimilar diabetes simulation models using standardized patients. The wide differences in the model results that we observed demonstrate the need for eross-validation. We propose to hold a second Mt Hood Challenge' in 2001 and invite all diabetes modelers to attend.002B28BDiabète non insulinodépendant01Non insulin dependent diabetes01Diabetes no insulinodependiente01Simulation ordinateur02Computer simulation02Simulación computadora02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Qualité vie04Quality of life04Calidad vida04Complication05Complication05Complicación05Facteur risque07Risk factor07Factor riesgo07Traitement08Treatment08Tratamiento08Analyse coût09Cost analysis09Análisis costo09Prédiction10Prediction10Predicción10Homme20Human20Hombre20Endocrinopathie37Endocrinopathy37Endocrinopatía37064 0306-7734ISTRDPInt. stat. rev.683Microsimulation of business performanceKOKIC (Philip)CHAMBERS (Ray)BEARE (Steve)Insiders Wissenbasierte Systeme GmbH, Wilhelm-Theodor-Romheld-Strasse 3255130 MainzDEU1 aut.Department of Social Statistics, University of SouthamptonSouthampton, SO17 1BJGBR2 aut.Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, PO Box 1563Canberra, 2601AUS3 aut.259-2752000ENGfreINIST11013540000937388800200000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.16 ref.01-0066643PAInternational statistical reviewNLDLa microsimulation sur des données d'enquêtes longitudinales peut être utilisée pour mesurer les effets de changement de la distribution et pas uniquement de la moyenne pour des performances commerciales. Cette méthode révèle ainsi un fort potentiel pour d'importantes applications dans l'élaboration de la politique économique gouvernementale. En effet, la méthode tient compte de la réponse dynamique des entreprises aux anticipations macro économiques du niveau des prix et permet donc de prédire les performances commerciales au niveau individuel plutôt qu'en moyenne. Dans ce papier, nous indiquons une méthodologie pour microsimuler des performances commerciales en prenant en compte les caractéristiques de la distribution des donnees de l'enquête sous-jacente. A l'aide d'une application sur des données d'enquête portant sur les fermes australiennes, nous montrons que la méthode peut être utilisée pour prédire la distribution de la production et des performances des fermes conditionnellement aux anticipations des prix des produits. Les microsimulations reflétent à la fois l'incertitude due aux variations climatiques d'une année à l'autre et l'incertitude liée aux prix des matières premières.001A02H02N2001A02H02J001A02H02H001A02H02GMéthode statistique01Statistical method01Método estadístico01Economie mathématique02Mathematical economy02Economía matemática02Analyse performance03Performance analysis03Análisis eficacia03Quantile04Quantile04Cuantila04Estimation statistique05Statistical estimation05Estimación estadística05Estimation linéaire06Linear estimation06Estimación lineal06Régression statistique07Statistical regression07Regresión estadística07Régression non linéaire08Non linear regression08Regresión no lineal08Estimation non paramétrique10Non parametric estimation10Estimación no paramétrica10Approvisionnement11Supply11Aprovisionamiento11Modélisation12Modeling12Modelización12Estimation paramètre14Parameter estimation14Estimación parámetro14Test statistique15Statistical test15Test estadístico15Comportement asymptotique16Asymptotic behavior16Comportamiento asintótico16Politique économique17Economic policy17Política económica17Simulation18Simulation18Simulación18Régression19Regression19Regresión19Enquête40Survey40Encuesta40SURINC70Donnée enquêteINC71Donnée longitudinaleINC72043 0148-5717STRDDMSex. transm. dis.2710More realistic models of sexually transmitted disease transmission dynamics : Sexual partnership networks, pair models, and moment closureFERGUSON (Neil M.)GARNETT (Geoffrey P.)Department of Genetics, University of NottinghamNottinghamUSA1 aut.Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College School of Medicine at St. Mary'sLondonGBR1 aut.2 aut.600-6092000ENGINIST189213540000934072100500000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.22 ref.01-0043269PASexually transmitted diseasesUSABackground: Mathematical models of sexually transmitted disease transmission have proven powerful tools for interpreting observed epidemiologic pattern. However, the most commonly used formulation of such models largely fail to capture the effect of partnership concurrency and contact network structure on transmission. Goal: The development of a compartmental model of partnership formation and dissolution that includes approximations for the influence of the sexual-partner network. Study Design: Theoretical analysis of ordinary differential equation models for sexually transmitted disease transmission within sex-partner networks. Results: The approach developed advances earlier pair models, allows for the influence of concurrent sexual partnerships, and illustrates the importance of concurrency to the persistence of diseases with relatively short durations of infectiousness. The authors also illustrate that heterogeneity in risk is possible even in model populations in which all individuals follow the same behavioral rules. Conclusion: Deterministic extended pair models offer a powerful approach to modelling sexually transmitted disease transmission that usefully complement computationally intensive microsimulation models.002B05A03Maladie sexuellement transmissible01Sexually transmitted disease01Enfermedad de transmisión sexual01Modèle02Models02Modelo02Dynamique03Dynamics03Dinámica03Transmission04Transmission04Transmisión04Partenaire sexuel05Sex partner05Compañero sexual05Epidémiologie19Epidemiology19Epidemiología19029 0140-9883EECODREnergy econ.225Price and inventory dynamics in petroleum product marketsCONSIDINE (Timothy J.)EUNNYEONG HEODepartment of Energy, Environmental, and Mineral Economics, The Pennsylvania State University, 203 Eric A. Walker BuildingUniversity Park, PA 16802USA1 aut.School of Civil, Urban, and Geosystem Engineering, Seoul National University, San 56-1, ShinrimKwanak, Seoul 151-742KOR2 aut.527-5472000ENGINIST182313540000921852100200000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.25 ref.01-0000862PAEnergy economicsGBRModélisation économétrique du marché du stockage des produits pétroliers raffinés, aux Etats unis. Utilisation de ce modèle pour estimer et tester l' aptitude à prévoir l'impact de crise concernant l'offre ou la demande.001D06A01C2B001D06A01A230Economie pétrolière01Oil economy01Economía petrolera01Produit pétrolier02Petroleum product02Producto petrolero02Stockage03Storage03Almacenamiento03Structure marché04Market structure04Estructura mercado04Modèle économétrique05Econometric model05Modelo econométrico05Impact économique06Economic impact06Impacto económico06Crise économique07Economic crisis07Crisis económica07Offre08Offer08Oferta08Demande09Demand09Petición09Modèle simulation10Simulation model10Modelo simulación10Etats UnisNG11United StatesNG11Estados UnidosNG11Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG001 Modèles d'équilibre de recherche d'emploiBONTEMPS (Christian)ROBIN (Jean-Marc)ROUX (Sébastien)VAN DEN BERG (Gérard)Commissariat général du planParisFRA1998FRE240 p.30 cmgraph., tabl.CGP98-01INISTRL 3693540000923478300000000© 2001 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.dissem.521-01-13529RMFRABalanced models of employment searchL'objectif de ce rapport est d'avancer dans la construction d'un outil de simulation microéconomique du marché de travail. Les deux premières parties procèdent à une étude des propriétés du modèle de Burdett et Mortensen. Dans la première étude, les travailleurs sont supposés homogènes et les entreprises ont de façon exogène des productivités du travail différentes. Dans la seconde, les travailleurs peuvent en plus avoir des côuts d'opportunité du travail différents. Cependant, pour simplifier, nous avons supposé que les taux d'arrivée des offres aux chômeurs et aux employés étaient les mêmes. Ainsi, les chômeurs sont prêts à accepter n'importe quelle offre de salaire dès lors qu'elle est supérieure à leur coût d'opportunité du travail. La dernière étude prend acte de certaines limitations des modèles étudiés dans les les deux précédents chapitres et entreprend de les réduire. Dans chacune des trois études on a d'abord procédé à l'étude théorique du modèle, puis le modèle a fait l'objet d'une estimation sur données individuelles de travailleurs ou d'entreprises, enfin, le modèle ainsi calibré a été employé pour effectuer des simulations de politiques économiques variées52150XIII521Modèle économétrique01Econometric Model01Simulation02Simulation02Emploi03Employment03Chômage04Unemployment04Economie05Economy05Entreprise06Enterprise06Marché du travail07Labor Market07Productivité08Productivity08Prédiction09Prediction09Offre d'emploi10Situations Vacant10Equilibre11Equilibrium11Salaire12Salary12344 0015-749XFOSCADFor. sci.463Linking harvest choices to timber supplyPRESTEMON (J. P.)WEAR (D. N.)Economics of Forest Protection and Management, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, USDA Forest ServiceResearch Triangle Park, NC 27709USA1 aut.2 aut.377-3892000ENGINIST85663540000909920200700000© 2000 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.24 ref.00-0533201PAForest scienceUSAAggregate timber supply by ownership was investigated for a small region by applying stand-level harvest choice models to a representative sample of stands and then aggregating to regional totals using the area-frame of the forest survey. Timber harvest choices were estimated as probit models for three ownership categories in coastal plain southern pine stands of North Carolina using individual permanent and remeasured stand-level data from last two available USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) surveys. The timber harvest decision was modeled as a function of timber values, a cost factor, and stand volume as a proxy for nontimber values. Probit models were statistically significant at 1% for all ownerships. Area expansion factors (the portion of forest area in the region represented by the sampled stand) were then combined with harvest probabilities to model the aggregate effects of price changes on timber supply, given a fixed forest area. Implied price elasticities were estimated using this modeling of aggregate effects, and a bootstrapping procedure was applied to estimate confidence limits for supply elasticities with respect to price. Our results showed that NIPF [nonidustrial private forests] and industry were elastically responsive in the aggregate when price increases are perceived as temporary but much less elastically and usually negatively responsive when increases are perceived as permanent. Results are consistent with theory of optimal rotations and highlight the critical influence of both existing inventory structure and expectations on aggregate timber supply.002A33C01Approvisionnement01Supply01Aprovisionamiento01Agrégat02Aggregate02Agregado02Echelon régional03Regional scope03Escalafón regional03Exploitation forestière04Forest logging04Explotación forestal04Analyse décision05Decision analysis05Análisis decisión05Propriétaire06Owner06Propietario06Secteur privé07Private sector07Sector privado07Secteur public08Public sector08Sector público08Modélisation09Modeling09Modelización09Modèle agrégé10Aggregate model10Modelo agregado10Modèle économétrique11Econometric model11Modelo econométrico11Modèle probabiliste12Probabilistic model12Modelo probabilista12Simulation statistique14Statistical simulation14Simulación estadística14Décision statistique15Statistical decision15Decisión estadística15Elasticité16Elasticity16Elasticidad16Espérance mathématique17Mathematical expectation17Esperanza matemática17PinusNS18PinusNS18PinusNS18Bois résineux19Softwood19Madera de coníferas19Caroline du NordNG20North CarolinaNG20Carolina del norteNG20Plaine côtière21Coastal plain21Planicie costera21Etude économique27Economic study27Estudio económico27Etude sur modèle28Model study28Estudio sobre modelo28Etude régionale29Regional study29Estudio regional29Modèle probitCD96probit modelCD96Modelo probitCD96Foresterie non industrielleCD97nonidustrial forestryCD97INDUSTRIE FORESTIERECD98FOREST PRODUCTS INDUSTRYCD98INDUSTRIA FORESTALCD98ConiferalesNSConiferalesNSConiferalesNSGymnospermaeNSGymnospermaeNSGymnospermaeNSSpermatophytaNSSpermatophytaNSSpermatophytaNSEtats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNGEconomie forestière34Forest economics34Economía forestal34Economie mathématique35Mathematical economy35Economía matemática35Méthode statistique36Statistical method36Método estadístico36Sciences économiques38Economics38Ciencias económicas38353 The simulation of social processesOn models and multi-agent systems for environment managementGILBERT (N.)15 p.2000ENGINISTA50000-0528871CApapier (INIST)FRALa simulation des processus sociauxModèles et Systèmes Multi-Agents pour la Gestion de l'Environnement et des TerritoiresDans son allocution, le professeur Nigel Gilbert donne un aperçu de la simulation en sciences sociales. Il décrit d'abord les différents usages de la simulation : comprendre, prévoir, aider la décision, éduquer, jouer, explorer la complexité, formaliser des théories sociales. Il montre que l'histoire du domaine nous enseigne à viser davantage la compréhension que la prédiction, et aussi que les modèles et la technologie doivent correspondre à l'objectif. Il détaille les questions principales : la relation entre les niveaux micro et macro, les processus d'auto-organisation, les effets des rationalités limitées ou de la spatialisation. Il aborde plus précisément la méthodologie de simulation : comment, partant de spécifications, élaborer des modèles et définir un protocole de validation. Il compare avec d'autres approches et discute le dilemne simplicité/réalisme, ainsi que certains pièges usuels. Il défend une approche plus déductive qu'inductive. Enfin, il présente les principaux types de modèles : équations, micro-simulation, automates cellulaires et systèmes multi-agents.In his talk, Pr. Nigel Gilbert gives a general overview of the simulation in the social sciences. First, he introduces the various uses of simulation : understanding, predicting, supporting decision, training, playing, exploring complexity, formalising social theories. Then, he shows how the history of the field teaches us to aim understanding rather than predicting, and also that technology and models types should match the target. He gives some major issues : the relationship between micro and macro level, the auto-organisation processes, the effects of bounded rationality and of spatial locations. Then, he discusses more extensively the methodology for simulation : starting from specifications, building models, setting a validation protocol. He compares with other approaches and gives some insights about the simplicity/realism dilemma and some usual traps in the process. He argues for a deductive rather than inductive approach. Finally, he reviews the main types of models : equations, microsimulation, celllular automaton, and multi-agent systems.430A030001D16SIMULATIONINCMETHODOLOGIEINCGRISELIINC349 0304-3800ECMODTEcol. model.1301-3Issues in analyzing data and indicators for sustainable developmentSpecial issue: Index 98 WorkshopHARDI (P.)DESOUZA-HULETEY (J. A.)LENZ (Roman)ed.PYKH (Yuri)ed.Measurement and Indicators Program, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), 161 Portage Avenue East, 6th FloorWinnipeg, Man., R3B 0Y4CAN1 aut.2 aut.University of Applied Sciences, Schelmenwasen 4-872622 NürtingenDEU1 aut.Center for International Environmental Cooperation (INENCO), Russian Academy of Sciences, nab. Kutuzova 14191187 St. PetersburgRUS2 aut.59-652000ENGINIST157323540000906561700500000© 2000 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.7 ref.00-0385525PCAEcological modellingNLDThis paper discusses data analysis, the most technical part of performance measurements. The aim is to address issues that are problematic in undertaking research on indicators and are related to a fundamental yet often neglected area of sustainable development (SD) projects. These projects, even if implemented by an expert team, are not yet in the phase to be verified by statistical and econometric methods. SD indices (descriptors of a new paradigm) deserve to be constructed by adopting more rigorous data analysis with a good statistical base. The paper will examine the relevant lessons of four empirical projects conducted by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). The challenge is how to adopt more quantitative analysis in measuring SD. This may lead to a more comprehensive method of SD performance measures and more adequate indicators that are measurable with available data and verifiable by analysis.002A14D01Gestion environnement01Environmental management01Gestiòn medio ambiente01Méthode analyse02Analysis method02Método análisis02Développement durable03Sustainable development03Desarrollo durable03Modèle économétrique04Econometric model04Modelo econométrico04Simulation numérique05Numerical simulation05Simulación numérica05Modèle empirique06Empirical model06Modelo empírico06Analyse statistique07Statistical analysis07Análisis estadístico07Analyse donnée08Data analysis08Análisis datos08Article synthèse09Review09Artículo síntesis09262INDEX '98 International Workshop on Environmental Indicators and Indices2AUT1998-07-10 0002-9262AJEPASAm. j. epidemiol.15110Investigation of design and bias issues in case-control studies of cancer screening using microsimulationCONNOR (R. J.)BOER (R.)PROROK (P. C.)WEED (D. L.)Biometry Branch, Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer InstituteBethesda, MDUSA1 aut.3 aut.Department of Public Health and Social Medicine, Erasmus UniversityRotterdamNLD2 aut.Preventive Oncology Branch, Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer InstituteBethesda, MDUSA4 aut.991-9982000ENGINIST6633540000873063300800000© 2000 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.27 ref.00-0380770PAAmerican journal of epidemiologyUSAUsing a microsimulation approach, the authors examined design and bias issues in case-control studies of cancer screening. Specifically, they looked at the impact on the odds ratio of the way in which exposure to screening is defined, the type of age matching, the time scale used, and the criteria used to determine control eligibility. The results showed that defining exposure as &dquot;ever/never&dquot; screened produced, as expected, a serious bias in favor of screening. Defining exposure as being screened no later than the time the case's cancer is diagnosed has a serious bias against screening. An alternative exposure definition-screening can occur no later than the time the case would have been clinically diagnosed-eliminates the bias against screening. Further, the results showed that the type of age matching and the time scale used can produce a bias against screening and that this bias can be quite strong when case-control studies are performed in populations with a periodic screening program that is the only source of screening. Finally, control eligibility criteria had little effect.002B20E02002B30A01A1Tumeur maligne01Malignant tumor01Tumor maligno01Glande mammaire02Mammary gland02Glándula mamaria02Dépistage03Medical screening03Descubrimiento03Biais méthodologique04Methodological bias04Ruta metodológica04Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Epidémiologie16Epidemiology16Epidemiología16Méthodologie17Methodology17Metodología17Homme20Human20Hombre20Santé publique23Public health23Salud pública23Etude cas témoin24Case control study24Estudio caso control24Glande mammaire pathologieNM37Mammary gland diseasesNM37Glándula mamaria patologíaNM37262 0191-2615TRBMDYTransp. res., Part B : methodol.347A multi-level cross-classified model for discrete response variablesBHAT (C. R.)Department of Civil Engineering, University of Texas at AustinAustin, TX, 78712-1076USA1 aut.567-5822000ENGINIST12377B3540000906294500200000© 2000 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 p.1/400-0370863PATransportation research. Part B : methodologicalGBRIn many spatial analysis contexts, the variable of interest is discrete and there is spatial clustering of observations. This paper formulates a model that accommodates clustering along more than one dimension in the context of a discrete response variable. For example, in a travel mode choice context, individuals are clustered by both the home zone in which they live as well as by their work locations. The model formulation takes the form of a mixed logit structure and is estimated by maximum likelihood using a combination of Gaussian quadrature and quasi-Monte Carlo simulation techniques. An application to travel mode choice suggests that ignoring the spatial context in which individuals make mode choice decisions can lead to an inferior data fit as well as provide inconsistent evaluations of transportation policy measures.001D15ATransports01Transportation01Transportes01Choix modal02Modal choice02Elección modal02Analyse spatiale03Spatial analysis03Análisis espacial03Modèle logit04Logit model04Modelo logit04Système n niveaux05Multilevel system05Sistema n niveles05Méthode Monte Carlo06Monte Carlo method06Método Monte Carlo06Modèle économétrique07Econometric model07Modelo econométrico07Analyse amas08Cluster analysis08Analisis cluster08Fonction discrète09Discrete function09Función discreta09Quadrature10Quadrature10Cuadratura10Méthode Gauss11Gauss method11Método Gauss11Simulation numérique12Numerical simulation12Simulación numérica12Méthode empirique13Empirical method13Método empírico13Trajet domicile travail14Travel to work14Trayecto domicilio trabajo14Zone urbaine15Urban area15Zona urbana15255 0191-2615TRBMDYTransp. res., Part B : methodol.345Forecasting freight transportation demand with the space-time multinomial probit modelMethodological developements in travel behavior researchGARRIDO (R. A.)MAHMASSANI (H. S.)MAHMASSANI (Hani S.)ed.Department of Transportation Engineering, School of Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Casilla 306, Codigo 105SantiagoCHL1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering and Department of Management Science and Information Systems, The University of Texas at AustinAustin, TX 78712USA2 aut.University of Texas at AustinUSA1 aut.403-4182000ENGINIST12377B3540000885284100500000© 2000 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.4 ref.00-0302393PATransportation research. Part B : methodologicalGBRFreight transportation demand is a highly variable process over space and time. A multinomial probit (MNP) model with spatially and temporally correlated error structure is proposed for freight demand analysis for tactical/operational planning applications. The resulting model has a large number of alternatives, and estimation is performed using Monte-Carlo simulation to evaluate the MNP likelihoods. The model is successfully applied to a data set of actual shipments served by a large truckload carrier. In addition to the substantive insights obtained from the estimation results, forecasting tests are performed to assess the model's predictive ability for operational purposes.001D15BTransport marchandise01Freight transportation01Transporte mercadería01Demande transport02Transport demand02Demanda transporte02Simulation numérique03Numerical simulation03Simulación numérica03Loi multinomiale04Multinomial distribution04Ley multinomial04Espace temps05Space time05Espacio tiempo05Modèle prévision06Forecast model06Modelo previsión06Planification07Planning07Planificación07Méthode Monte Carlo08Monte Carlo method08Método Monte Carlo08Modèle économétrique09Econometric model09Modelo econométrico09Application10Application10Aplicación10Analyse factorielle11Factor analysis11Análisis factorial11Valeur propre12Eigenvalue12Valor propio12Etude marché13Market survey13Estudio mercado13Variation saisonnière14Seasonal variation14Variación estacional14Modèle ProbitINC72206 0378-3774AWMADFAgric. water manage.421An econometric irrigated crop allocation model for analyzing the impact of water restriction policiesRECIO (B.)RUBIO (F.)LOMBAN (J.)IBANEZ (J.)Department of Applied Mathematics in Agricultural Engineering, Universidad, Politécnica de MadridESP1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.Department of Economic and Agricultural Social Sciences, Universidad Politécnica de MadridESP4 aut.47-631999ENGINIST159703540000878123000300000© 2000 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.12 ref.00-0288197PAAgricultural water managementNLDThe objective of the Spanish government-funded GESMO project is to research on new water policy evaluation and monitoring tools, applied to aquifer 8/23 in the Eastern Mancha, which covers one of the most important areas under the charge of the Júcar Catchment Confederation. The project is to output two types of end products: Decision Support Systems for defining water use policies, including economic impact and environmental simulators within a single multi-criteria decision-making environment and Measure Monitoring and Control Systems employing tele-detection and simulation of crop water needs. The Decision Support Systems will include three, highly complex, theoretical models in a single information technology product: a three-dimensional aquifer 8/23 behavior simulation model, an econometric model to predict crop allocation depending on the economic environment, water availabilities, etc., and an automatic alternative generation and evaluation system based on a multi-criteria methodology. The objective of the system is to advise on possible water policies and how they would materialize into spatially and temporally distributed water quotas (m³/ha) with the objective of both safeguarding the aquifer in the medium and long term and increasing the economic profitability of regional agriculture. In this paper, a regional econometric model is presented for studying the impact of water use quotas on the main irrigated crops allocation in the region.002A32C03BIrrigation01Irrigation01Irrigación01Gestion ressource eau02Water resource management02Gestión recurso agua02Aspect économique03Economic aspect03Aspecto económico03Protection environnement04Environmental protection04Protección medio ambiente04Modèle économétrique05Econometric model05Modelo econométrico05Système aide décision06Decision support system06Sistema ayuda decisíon06Besoin hydrique07Water requirement07Necesidad hidráulica07Restriction hydrique08Water restriction08Restricción hídrica08EspagneNG20SpainNG20EspañaNG20Etude sur modèle27Model study27Estudio sobre modelo27Etude régionale28Regional study28Estudio regional28EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEurope SudNG59Southern EuropeNG59Europa SurNG59192 0198-9715CEUSD5Comput., environ. urban syst.244GIS and microsimulation for local labour market analysisBALLAS (D.)CLARKE (G.)School of Geography, University of LeedsLeeds LS2 9JTGBR1 aut.2 aut.305-3302000ENGINIST201923540000872440400200000© 2000 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.2 p.3/400-0276464PAComputers, environment and urban systemsGBRThis paper outlines the findings of ongoing research on ways of employing and combining geographical information systems (GIS) and microsimulation methodologies for the evaluation and analysis of local labour market problems and policies. First, it is shown how data sets from different sources are integrated to create an urban labour market GIS. In the context of this information system, ways of mapping thematically the local labour market demand and supply are presented. In addition, travel-to-work flows are mapped and it is demonstrated how this data can be used to build local labour market Spatial Interaction Models. Further, it is shown how GIS can be combined with microsimulation techniques to highlight urban problems and enhance the analysis and evaluation of potential social and employment policies. In particular, it is shown how GIS and microsimulation can be used as tools in order to analyse a region's economy and labour market and to estimate the degree of labour market segmentation and socio-economic dualism within an urban system. Also, it is outlined how what-if spatial policy analysis of local labour markets can be performed (i.e. simulating new policy initiatives, firm closures, changes in benefit policies and performing regional multiplier analysis). Finally, the paper presents outputs from SimLeeds, which is a spatial microsimulation model for the Leeds labour market, and explores the potential of GIS combined with microsimulation modelling to create a new framework for the formulation, analysis and evaluation of socio-economic policies at the individual or household level.001D14A11295Marché travail01Labour market01Mercado trabajo01Etude marché02Market survey02Estudio mercado02Système information géographique03Geographic information system03Sistema información geográfica03Simulation numérique04Numerical simulation04Simulación numérica04Modèle microscopique05Microscopic model05Modelo microscópico05Méthode étude06Investigation method06Método estudio06Trajet domicile travail07Travel to work07Trayecto domicilio trabajo07Politique08Policy08Política08Situation emploi09Employment situation09Situación empleo09Etude socioéconomique10Socioeconomic study10Estudio socioeconómico10Géographie11Geography11Geografía11Base donnée12Database12Base dato12Ecoulement trafic13Traffic flow13Flujo tráfico13Répartition spatiale14Spatial distribution14Distribución espacial14Etude cas15Case study15Estudio caso15AngleterreNG16EnglandNG16InglaterraNG16Grande BretagneNGGreat BritainNGGran BretañaNGRoyaume UniNGUnited KingdomNGReino UnidoNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG185 0965-8564Transp. res., Part A Policy pract.344Transferring insights into commuter behavior dynamics from laboratory experiments to field surveysMAHMASSANI (H. S.)JOU (R.-C.)Department of Civil Engineering and Department of Management Science and Information Systems, The University of Texas at AustinAustin, TX 78712USA1 aut.Department of Traffic and Transportation Engineering and Management, Feng Chia UniversityTaichungTWN2 aut.243-2602000ENGINIST12377A3540000875551500200000© 2000 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.11 ref.00-0241127PATransportation research. Part A, Policy and practiceGBRThe principal objective of this paper is to perform a comparative analysis and interpretation of commuter behavior revealed in field surveys and laboratory experiments. The experimental studies have provided valuable insights into complex human decision behavior, but they were primarily intended to develop the underlying theoretical constructs, and were based primarily on simulated traffic situations. The transferability of these insights to commuter behavior in real traffic systems has not been sufficiently established, and remains to be accomplished as the next logical step towards the operational use of such models of commuter behavior. Thus, in this paper, comparisons between the field survey results and the experiments involving real commuters in a simulated traffic system are performed to confirm and better interpret the models and the conclusions resulting from such experiments. Such informal tests of external validity are very important from a methodological standpoint as laboratory and stated preference experiments continue to play an increasingly important role in travel behavior research, especially in connection with the introduction of new technologies.001D15ATrafic voyageur01Passenger traffic01Tráfico viajero01Analyse comportementale02Behavioral analysis02Análisis conductual02Itinéraire03Route03Itinerario03Choix modal04Modal choice04Elección modal04Durée trajet05Travel time05Duración trayecto05Etude sur terrain06Field study06Estudio en campo06Etude en laboratoire07Laboratory study07Estudio en laboratorio07Insight08Insight08Insight08Timing09Timing09Timing09Simulation numérique10Numerical simulation10Simulación numérica10Modèle économétrique11Econometric model11Modelo econométrico11Loi multinomiale12Multinomial distribution12Ley multinomial12Modèle dynamique13Dynamic model13Modelo dinámico13Ordonnancement14Scheduling14Ordonamiento14Trajet domicile travail15Travel to work15Trayecto domicilio trabajo15Modèle probitINC72164 0965-8564Transp. res., Part A Policy pract.344The effect of education programs on paratransit demand of people with disabilitiesFITZGERALD (J.)SHAUNESEY (D.)STERN (S.)JAUNT, 104 Keystone PlaceCharlottesville, VA 22903USA1 aut.2 aut.Department of Economics, University of VirginiaCharlottesville, VA 22903-3288USA3 aut.261-2852000ENGINIST12377A3540000875551500300000© 2000 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.6 ref.00-0240022PATransportation research. Part A, Policy and practiceGBRWe describe a passenger education program to encourage responsible use of paratransit by people with disabilities. We use state-of-the-art econometric techniques to evaluate its success. We find that it has moderate effects on demand for transportation but large effects on how passengers use the transportation. In particular, passengers are more responsible about meeting the transportation at the curb rather than waiting for help inside their home. Cost-benefit analysis of the program suggests that it is a long-term worthwhile activity.001D15A001D15BTrafic voyageur01Passenger traffic01Tráfico viajero01Handicap02Handicap02Desventaja02Education03Education03Educación03Transport en commun non public04Paratransit04Transporte colectivo no público04Demande transport05Transport demand05Demanda transporte05Simulation numérique06Numerical simulation06Simulación numérica06Modèle économétrique07Econometric model07Modelo econométrico07Analyse avantage coût08Cost benefit analysis08Análisis costo beneficio08Analyse tendance09Trend analysis09Análisis tendencia09Aspect économique10Economic aspect10Aspecto económico10Financement11Financing11Financiación11Analyse multivariable12Multivariate analysis12Análisis multivariable12Effet aléatoire13Random effect13Efecto aleatorio13Accident circulation14Traffic accident14Accidente tráfico14Modèle probitINC72164 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1678Cellular automata microsimulation of bidirectional pedestrian flowsHighway capacity, quality of service, and traffic flow and characteristicsBLUE (V. J.)ADLER (J. L.)Planning and Program Management Group, New York State Department of Transportation, 4 Burnett BoulevardPoughkeepsie, NY 12603USA1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, Center for Infrastructure and Transportation Studies, Rensselaer Polytechnic InstituteTroy, NY 12180-3590USA2 aut.National Research Council. Transportation Research BoardWashington, DC 20418USApatr.135-1411999ENGINIST10459B3540000817088901700000© 2000 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.14 ref.00-0184808PCATransportation research recordUSAThe cellular automata (CA) microsimulation of pedestrians is a particle-hopping model in which a set of local rules prescribe the behavior of entities within local neighborhoods of cells. CA microsimulation has emerged as a tool for simulating traffic flow and modeling transportation networks. Pedestrian flow is inherently more complex than vehicular flow, and simulation models that are used for emulating vehicular traffic are not directly applicable to modeling pedestrian movements. In previous work the authors demonstrated that unidirectional pedestrian flow patterns consistent with well-established fundamental properties could be generated with CA microsimulation. This paper expands upon the previous effort and presents a CA microsimulation model and emergent fundamental flows for a bidirectional pedestrian walkway. Simulation experiments indicate that the basic model is applicable to walkways of various lengths and widths and across different directional shares of pedestrian movements.001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Trafic piéton02Pedestrian traffic02Tráfico peatones02Simulation numérique03Numerical simulation03Simulación numérica03Modèle microscopique04Microscopic model04Modelo microscópico04Automate cellulaire05Cellular automaton05Autómata celular05Ecoulement trafic06Traffic flow06Flujo tráfico06Modèle dynamique07Dynamic model07Modelo dinámico07Voie piétonne08Pedestrian walkway08Vía peatonal08Trottoir09Footway09Acera09Expérimentation10Experimentation10Experimentación10Direction11Direction11Dirección11Temps calcul12Computation time12Tiempo computación12Congrès international15International conference15Congreso internacional15136Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board78USA1999-01 0021-8634JAERA2J. agric. eng. res.733An economic analysis of automatic milking using a simulation modelCOOPER (K.)PARSONS (D. J.)Silsoe Research Institute, Wrest Park, SilsoeBedford MK45 4HSGBR1 aut.2 aut.311-3211999ENGINIST47083540000857207601000000© 2000 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.25 ref.00-0177444PAJournal of agricultural engineering researchGBRThe economic and logistical consequences of using an automatic milking system (AMS) on a dairy farm in the UK in place of the conventional dairy parlour are examined. A three-phase discrete simulation model is combined with an economic analysis for a range of real farms, herd size of 85-95, and then one of these farms is selected and a sensitivity analysis is conducted. The model is able to simulate milking for cows housed all-year and those that are to be fetched from fields. The model simulates the cows' yield and movement throughout the year, according to their individual lactation curves. The costs and benefits of an AMS for all-year voluntary presentation, for all-year manually fetched (from fields and barn) and for a combination of voluntary presentation from barns in winter, and manually fetched from fields in summer are examined. An analysis of the efficiency of the robot, i.e. time for robot to attach teat cups, time for cow to walk through the system and the time that the robot is available to the cow, is conducted. The utility of the robot is shown to be as important as robot efficiency and the cows will need to be motivated to use the robot for up to 22 h/d. If dairy farmers are to switch from conventional milking to automatic milking, they will need to decide how to deal with the increase in milk yield, by buying more quota or reducing their herd size. The costs of these two strategies are shown. Using current prices and costs, a single-stall robot is compared to a multi-stall robot. The sensitivity of robot cost and lifetime is shown. If the price of quota is low, the robot is competitive for all-year voluntary presentation with the conventional milking parlour, assuming that the robot can be shown to have the same reliability. If automatic milking becomes more popular, the price of the system is likely to fall. Each reduction of £1000 in the cost of the one robot and two milking stalls increases the annual relative profit of a farm (used as a baseline cost) by £147.002A36C03Automatisation01Automation01Automatización01Impact économique02Economic impact02Impacto económico02Logistique03Logistics03Logística03Rendement04Yield04Rendimiento04Rentabilité05Profitability05Rentabilidad05Traite mécanique06Mechanical milking06Ordeño mecánico06Robot08Robot08Robot08Système automatique09Automatic system09Sistema automático09Simulation ordinateur10Computer simulation10Simulación computadora10Modèle simulation11Simulation model11Modelo simulación11Modèle économétrique12Econometric model12Modelo econométrico12Bovin laitier13Dairy cattle13Ganado de leche13Vache14Cow14Vaca14Royaume UniNG20United KingdomNG20Reino UnidoNG20Analyse économique27Economic analysis27Análisis económico27Analyse sensibilité28Sensitivity analysis28Análisis sensibilidad28Etude sur modèle29Model study29Estudio sobre modelo29Modèle TOCHSIMINC90INSTALLATION DE TRAITECD96MILKING FACILITIESCD96INSTALACION DE ORDENOCD96EXPLOITATION LAITIERECD98DAIRY FARMSCD98GRANJAS LECHERASCD98ArtiodactylaNSArtiodactylaNSArtiodactylaNSUngulataNSUngulataNSUngulataNSMammaliaNSMammaliaNSMammaliaNSVertebrataNSVertebrataNSVertebrataNSBoeufOxBueyEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEconométrie33Econometrics33Econometría33Economie agricole34Agricultural economics34Economía agricola34Production laitière35Milk production35Producción lechera35Animal élevage40Farming animal40Animal cría40Animal ruminant41Ruminant animal41Animal rumiante41129 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1676Drivers' learning and network behavior : Dynamic analysis of the driver-network system as a complex systemTravel behavior and passenger travel demand forecastingNAKAYAMA (S.)KITAMURA (R.)FUJII (S.)Department of Civil Engineering Systems, Kyoto UniversitySakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501JPN1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.National Research Council. Transportation Research BoardWashington, DC 20418USApatr.30-361999ENGINIST10459B3540000816728100400000© 2000 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.18 ref.00-0174014PCATransportation research recordUSAA model system of drivers' cognition, learning, and route choice is formulated, taking into account the limitations in drivers' cognitive capabilities, and is applied to examine the dynamic nature of a driver-network system through microsimulation. Network equilibrium is not assumed a priori; rather, finding how an equilibrium is reached, or not reached, is the objective. Although equilibrium analysis, in general, focuses on unique and static equilibrium by treating drivers' behavior as simply as possible, drivers' behavior is treated more realistically to enhance understanding of the day-to-day dynamics of the driver-network system. Results of microsimulation analyses indicate that the network flow does not necessarily converge to user equilibrium; instead, it may reach &dquot;deluded equilibrium,&dquot; which is caused by drivers' false perceptions of travel times, and have &dquot;path dependence.&dquot; Results, especially the complex behavior such as path dependence shown in the simulation, indicate that the driver-network system is a complex system.001D15CTransport routier01Road transportation01Transporte por carretera01Analyse comportementale02Behavioral analysis02Análisis conductual02Conducteur véhicule03Vehicle driver03Conductor vehículo03Apprentissage04Learning04Aprendizaje04Réseau routier05Road network05Red carretera05Simulation numérique06Numerical simulation06Simulación numérica06Modèle dynamique07Dynamic model07Modelo dinámico07Itinéraire08Route08Itinerario08Critère décision09Decision criterion09Criterio decisión09Modèle microscopique10Microscopic model10Modelo microscópico10Durée trajet11Travel time11Duración trayecto11Ecoulement trafic12Traffic flow12Flujo tráfico12Volume trafic13Capacity of traffic13Volumen tráfico13Etude expérimentale14Experimental study14Estudio experimental14Congrès international16International conference16Congreso internacional16129Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board78USA1999-01 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1679Development of hierarchical methodology for benefit evaluation of vehicle-highway automation : Case study of the Houston Katy FreewayIntelligent transportation systems, vehicle-highway automation, and artificial intelligenceMILLER (M. A.)MISENER (J. A.)GODBOLE (D. N.)DESHPANDE (A. R.)California Partners for Advanced Transit and Highways, Institute of Transportation Studies. University of California at Berkeley. Richmond Field Station, 1357 South 46th Street, Building 452Richmond CA 94804-4698USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.National Research Council. Transportation Research BoardWashington, DC 20418USApatr.139-1471999ENGINIST10459B3540000814497501900000© 2000 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.12 ref.00-0166227PCECATransportation research recordUSAA hierarchical methodology used to design and benefit the evaluation of vehicle-highway automation systems at various levels of granularity is described. In this hierarchy, detailed microsimulation and experimental data and performance measures feed into consecutively higher, system-level analyses. Ultimately, top-level estimates of system benefits are provided to transportation decision makers. The method is designed to accommodate studies of autonomous vehicle control concepts such as the safety services under consideration as advanced vehicle control and safety system (AVCSS) intelligent transportation system services, some of which have been discussed as U.S. Department of Transportation Intelligent Vehicle Initiative services, it will also accommodate studies of the fully automated highway systems. The method is illustrated with a multifaceted set of studies of the relationship between the degree of automated vehicle-highway cooperation and system performance improvement on the Houston. Texas. Metropolitan Transit Authority High-Occupancy Vehicle facility on Interstate 10, also known as the Katy Freeway. The primary objective is to predict performance impacts for alternative concepts, which will undergo a major investment study. in a real-world setting. The study initially focused on automated highway systems, but the methodology has since been applied to the adaptive cruise control AVCSS service.001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Gestion trafic02Traffic management02Gestión tráfico02Véhicule routier03Road vehicle03Vehículo caminero03Route04Highway04Carretera04Automatisation05Automation05Automatización05Méthodologie06Methodology06Metodología06Evaluation performance07Performance evaluation07Evaluación prestación07Simulation numérique08Numerical simulation08Simulación numérica08Modèle microscopique09Microscopic model09Modelo microscópico09Etude expérimentale10Experimental study10Estudio experimental10Sécurité trafic11Traffic safety11Seguridad tráfico11Système contrôle commande12Monitoring control system12Sistema control mando12Système intelligent13Intelligent system13Sistema inteligente13Méthode analyse14Analysis method14Método análisis14Analyse multiélément15Multicomponent analysis15Análisis multielemento15Congrès16Congress16Congreso16122Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board78USA1999-01 Applications des méthodes de microsimulation dans les domaines de la santé et de la dépendanceBLANCHET (D.)BREUIL-GENIER (P.)CHANUT (J.M.)FLIPO (A.)MAHIEU (R.)LIEVRE (A.)Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques. (I.N.S.E.E.). Paris.FRAInstitut National d'Etudes Démographiques. (I.N.E.D.). Paris.FRACommissariat Général au Plan. Paris.FRApatr.1996FRECGPParis132 p.tabl., graph.BDSP/CREDES19223, B29638800dissem.00-0114291LMFRALa recherche présentée dans ce rapport répond à deux objectifs : - proposer un état des lieux de l'utilisation des modèles de microsimulation dans le domaine de la santé et dans le domaine connexe de la dépendance, qui a donné lieu, à l'étranger, à de nombreux travaux ; - explorer les possibilités de reproduire, pour le cas français, quelques uns de ces exercices réalisés à l'étranger. En France, la seule application d'ampleur des modèles de microsimulation au domaine de la santé est réalisée par C. Leteno-Largeron, C. Lachaud-Fiume et L. Rochaix (1995), portant sur les effets redistributifs et incitatifs de différentes formules de co-paiement de la part des assurés. Le choix s'est donc porté sur deux autres champs : la prise en charge de la dépendance - la microsimulation dynamique étant un outil bien adapté pour la comparaison de scénarios de prise en charge de cette dépendance - et l'analyse des filières de soins002B30A11AssuranceInsuranceSeguroSecteur privéPrivate sectorSector privadoCoût socialSocial costModèleModelsModeloDemandeDemandPeticiónAutonomieAutonomyAutonomíaDépendanceDependenceDependenciaFinancementFinancingFinanciaciónDémographieDemographyDemografíaIncapacitéDisabilityIncapacidadMilieu familialFamily environmentMedio familiarRelation familialeFamilial relationRelación familiarPrescriptionPrescriptionPrescripciónMédicamentDrugMedicamentoConsommationConsumptionConsumoSoinCareCuidadoProjection perspectivePerspective projectionProyección perspectivaProspectiveProspectiveProspectivaEvaluationEvaluationEvaluaciónBibliographieBibliographyBibliografíaComportementBehaviorConductaSantéHealthSaludDépenseExpenditureGastoConsommateurConsumerConsumidorEnquêteSurveyEncuestaFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGEtats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG087 0956-4624Int. j. STD AIDS1011Type of partnership and heterosexual spread of HIV infection in rural Uganda : results from simulation modellingROBINSON (N. J.)MULDER (D.)AUVERT (B.)WHITWORTH (J.)HAYES (R.)INSERM Unit 8894415 Saint-MauriceFRA1 aut.3 aut.London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondon WC1E 7HTGBR1 aut.4 aut.5 aut.Medical Research Council Programme on AIDS, PO Box 49EntebbeUGA2 aut.4 aut.University of Amsterdam1105 AZ AmsterdamNLD2 aut.718-7251999ENGINIST228913540000804878800500000© 2000 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.50 ref.00-0094964PAInternational journal of STD & AIDSGBRThe objective was to estimate the likely percentage of HIV infections that may be attributable to one-off partnerships (such as those between female sex workers and their clients) and longer-term partnerships in rural Uganda. This was addressed by the application of a microsimulation model (SimulAIDS) of the transmission dynamics of HIV infection, drawing on data from a population cohort of 10,000 in rural Uganda. For a scenario reproducing documented characteristics of the study population in 1990, when adult HIV prevalence was 9%, and during subsequent follow up (1990-1994), when adult HIV incidence was 8 per 1000 person-years, the percentage of HIV infections in men (women) attributed to one-off partnerships decreased from 96% (26%) during 1980 to 67% (8%) in 1989 and 22% (5%) in 1994. Reducing HIV transmission between one-off partners early in an HIV epidemic may substantially limit the potential for the spread of HIV infection. At a later phase, prevention must also focus on control of transmission between longer-term HIV-discordant partners.002B05C02D235SIDA01AIDS01SIDA01Partenaire sexuel02Sex partner02Compañero sexual02Transmission03Transmission03Transmisión03Hétérosexualité04Heterosexuality04Heterosexualidad04Modèle simulation05Simulation model05Modelo simulación05Modélisation06Modeling06Modelización06Zone rurale08Rural area08Zona rural08OugandaNG09UgandaNG09UgandaNG09Homme10Human10Hombre10Comportement sexuel11Sexual behavior11Conducta sexual11Facteur risque12Risk factor12Factor riesgo12Maladie sexuellement transmissible13Sexually transmitted disease13Enfermedad de transmisión sexual13Incidence17Incidence17Incidencia17Epidémiologie19Epidemiology19Epidemiología19Prévalence20Prevalence20Prevalencia20ViroseViral diseaseVirosisInfectionInfectionInfecciónAfriqueNGAfricaNGAfricaNGImmunopathologie37Immunopathology37Inmunopatología37Immunodéficit38Immune deficiency38Inmunodeficiencia38066 1278-3366138Modelling within a thermodynamic framework : a footnote to Sanders (1999)WINDER (N.)11 p.2000ENGengfresweRESBGI82003 ref.531-00-13687PACybergeoFRADe nombreuses modélisations utilisent des dynamiques de niveau micro pour étudier des comportements agrégés. Cette approche ayant ses sources dans la physique, on peut la qualifier de &dquot;modélisation thermodynamique&dquot;. L'A. reprend la comparaison effectuée par L. Sanders entre les modèles développés dans le cadre de la synergétique et la microsimulation. Il propose une nouvelle typologie des modélisations. Dans le cas où la modélisation par microsimulation est définie comme une &dquot;modélisation thermodynamique avec facteurs de compensation&dquot;, les paradigmes de la synergétique et de la microsimulation sont irréconciliables5317I531MicrosimulationNIINC01MicrosimulationNIINC01Synergétique56302Synergetics56302Auto-organisation56303Self-organizing behaviour56303Système56304System56304Modèle56305Model56305Dynamique de système56306System dynamics56306Modélisation56307Modelling56307U105!02,01,03!07,06U104!06,07!01,02,03325 1278-3366135Interrelationship between household and housing market : a microsimulation model of household formation among the youngFRANSSON (U.)23 p.6 fig., 1 tabl.2000ENGengfreRESBGI820020 ref.531-00-13684PACybergeoFRAL'accent est mis sur les possibilités offertes aux jeunes gens de quitter le foyer parental. L'A. considère que leur situation fait partie d'un système d'interactions plus large et complexe au sein du marché immobilier. Importance cruciale de l'interaction entre individus et structure. Présentation d'une méthode servant à décrire les interactions complexes. Conception d'un modèle de micro-simulation dans l'espace et dans le temps, afin de rendre compte de nombreux processus simultanés au niveau induviduel. Le modèle permet une bonne représentation des déplacements des jeunes gens, et montre combien leurs possibilités se trouvent restreintes par leur propre situation et par les conditions structurelles. Exemple de la Suède531122AIV531Marché du logement56301Housing market56301Ménage56302Household56302Jeunes56303Young people56303Mobilité résidentielle56304Residential mobility56304Analyse systémique56305System analysis56305Méthodologie56306Methodology56306DécohabitationNIINC07Espace-temps56308Space time56308Simulation56309Simulation56309Décision56310Decision56310Comportement56311Behaviour56311Logement56312Housing56312SuèdeNG22SwedenNG22U112!01,03,04,10!22U104!03,07,11,10!22U222!01!03,04,10325 0308-518X323RAMBLAS : a regional planning model based on the microsimulation of daily activity travel patternsVELDHUISEN (J.)TIMMERMANS (H.)KAPOEN (L.)427-4432 fig., 7 tabl.2000ENGengINIST15583 A82003 p.531-00-12086PAEnvironment and planning. AGBRL'un des buts de ce modèle de simulation est de prévoir les flux de circulation dans un réseau de transports à différentes heures de la journée. Principaux concepts utilisés. Discussion sur les modèles de demande de transport centrés sur l'activité économique. Principales différences entre ces modèles et le modèle de simulation. Examen de la structure du modèle, et application à la région d'Eindhoven531123IV531Planification urbaine56301Urban planning56301Transport urbain56302Urban transport56302Flux56303Flow56303Modèle56304Model56304Système de transports56305Transport system56305Demande56306Demand56306Espace-temps56307Space time56307Trafic urbain56308Urban traffic56308Lieu de travail56309Workplace56309Vie quotidienne56310Daily life56310Simulation56311Simulation56311Pays-BasNG22Netherlands (The)NG22EindhovenNGINC23U102!01,04,11,08!23,22U111!02,08,10,07!03,04,23,22U222!23!02,08,11,07185 0308-518X319Labor-productivity changes in regional econometric + input - output modelsREY (S.J.)JACKSON (R.W.)1583-15992 fig., 8 tabl.1999ENGengINIST15583 A820016 ref.531-00-10108PAEnvironment and planning. AGBRAprès l'introduction de la variable de demande inter-industrielle en 1988, les AA. présentent la variable de demande d'emploi inter-industrielle. Elle a une forme statique et dynamique comme le montre son application au marché du travail de San Diego. Les AA. évaluent sa fiabilité pour des prévisions. Des ajustements à la productivité changeante du travail conduisent à limiter les erreurs dans la simulation. Données chiffrées entre 1970 et 1994.531133IV531Modèle56301Model56301Modèle économétrique56302Econometric model56302Productivité du travail56303Labour productivity56303Modèle d'entrée-sortie56304Input-output model56304Emploi56305Employment56305Demande56306Demand56306Emploi industriel56307Industrial employment56307Méthode de Monte Carlo56308Monte Carlo analysis56308Simulation56309Simulation56309Impact économique56310Economic impact56310Modèle régional56311Regional model56311Etats-UnisNG22United States of AmericaNG22CaliforniaNG23CaliforniaNG23San DiegoNG24San DiegoNG24U101!02,04,03,09!24,23,22U105!07,03,02,11!23,22U222!23!24,02,04,03003 0041-0683TENCA4Traffic eng. control4011Five years of the instrumented vehicle: What have we learnedBRACKSTONE (M.)MCDONALD (M.)SULTAN (B.)MOULD (B.)University of SouthamptonGBR1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.537-5401999ENGINIST137293540000883387400400000© 1999 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.12 ref.99-0543224PATraffic engineering & controlGBROver the last decade it has become clear that the ability to design and prototype complex ITS (Intelligent Transport Systems) tools has outstripped the understanding of the public's behavioural response. With ITS now regarded as pivotal to solving transport problems, this understanding has never been more important. In 1993, the University of Southampton's Transportation Research Group started developing an instrumented vehicle to assess driver behaviour and response to ITS. The vehicle is driven in traffic as weil as on a test platform, either monitoring adjacent vehicles, or testing driver responses in traffic. It complements virtual reality simulators observing behaviour in hazardous' conditions, as well as technologies too expensive to prototype. It allows data collection for direct understanding, as well as for calibrating and validating models. Instrumented vehicles are not new, and many types have been developed since the late 1950s. However modem sensov and computer technology made it important to re-visit the concept. Despite rapid technological progress, initial scoping studies revealed that, although enhanced sensors existed, they were too expensive, Manufacturers had assembled many vehicles containing relevant sensors, but these were either unavailable to most researchers, or were locked into a particular vehicle actuator cortrol system, making them exceptionally difficult for general research. By the end of 1995 however, with the aid of grants and reducing component costs, the construction and initial test programme for such a vehicle became possible. Initially the vehicle would collect dynamic time series data on intervehicle disfances and relative speed for microsimulation modelling. Although the vehicle new addresses many other applications, this first requirement was the most demanding. The solution, to use an automotive radar rangefinder, made the vehicle unique amongst EU public bodies. The vehicle became fully operational in 1972, since then making valuable contributions to a wide range of fundamental and applied research as this report from Mark Brackstone et al. describes.001D15CTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Système intelligent02Intelligent system02Sistema inteligente02Véhicule routier03Road vehicle03Vehículo caminero03Appareillage embarqué04On board equipment04Equipo embarcado04Conception système05System design05Concepción sistema05Prototype06Prototype06Prototipo06Automobile07Motor car07Automóvil07Description système08System description08Descripción sistema08Evaluation système09System evaluation09Evaluación sistema09Traitement donnée10Data processing10Tratamiento datos10Vitesse déplacement11Speed11Velocidad desplazamiento11Comportement12Behavior12Conducta12Prospective13Prospective13Prospectiva13347 Séminaire de formation par la recherche : &dquot;les modèles multinomiaux Probit (MNP)&dquot; : semaine du 3 au 7 février 1997CALZADA (Christian)ed.JAYET (Hubert)BOLDUC (Denis)Ministère de l'équipement, des transports et du logement. Service économique et statistiquePuteauxFRA1997FRE345 p.30 cmfig., graph.Les modèles multinomiaux Probit (MNP). Séminaire de formation par la rechercheFRA1997-02-03INISTRL 1703540000849547600000000© 1999 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.dissem.99-0467992CMFRASeminar of training to research : Probit multinomial models : February 1997Ce séminaire avait plusieurs objectifs : - Premier séminaire de formation appliquée, interne au SES (Service economique et statistique) ; - Combler le retard théorique et pratique sur l'implémentation des modèles de choix modaux polytomiques en transports, tout particulièrement dans le cadre de deux exercices en cours : 1) élaboration d'un modèle de choix modal marchandises sur données RP/SP, 2) analyse du choix modal voyageurs sur données de rang (SP) ; - Développer une meilleure réflexion théorique et pratique sur le choix modal en transports avec les meilleurs spécialistes du domaine.430A05V001D15A001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Transport voyageur02Passenger transportation02Transporte pasajero02Transport marchandise03Freight transportation03Transporte mercadería03Formation professionnelle04Occupational training04Formación profesional04Modèle probabiliste05Probabilistic model05Modelo probabilista05Loi multinomiale06Multinomial distribution06Ley multinomial06Choix modal07Modal choice07Elección modal07Programme enseignement08Educational program08Programa enseñanza08Analyse qualitative09Qualitative analysis09Análisis cualitativo09Modèle logit10Logit model10Modelo logit10Autocorrélation11Autocorrelation11Autocorrelación11Modèle simulation12Simulation model12Modelo simulación12Modèle hybride13Hybrid model13Modelo híbrido13Logistique14Logistics14Logística14Modèle économétrique15Econometric model15Modelo econométrico15298 0308-1060TPLTAKTransp. plann. technol.224The simulation of variable traffic signal control in the Bangkok networkPAKSARSAWAN (S.)MAY (A. D.)MONTGOMERY (F. O.)JMP Consultants Ltd.LeedsGBR1 aut.Institute for Transport Studies, University of LeedsLeeds, LS2 9JTGBR2 aut.3 aut.287-3081999ENGINIST156323540000859025000400000© 1999 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.14 ref.99-0404346PATransportation planning and technologyNLDDue to the rapidly rising car ownership in Bangkok, the capital of Thailand, traffic congestion is increasing rapidly. TRAF-NETSIM was selected for the detailed analysis of Bangkok conditions. However, most traffic signals in Bangkok are controlled by on-site traffic police operating the controllers in manual mode. Hence the cycle time, length of stages and the sequence of stages are dependent on the minute by minute decisions of the traffic police. One of the constraints of TRAF-NETSIM (and most other microsimulation models) is that the cycle time can have only one value for the whole network, and the sequence of stages must be in the same order throughout the simulation period. Therefore, the varying cycle times operated by the police had to be represented as a common value, and the sequence of stages had to be fixed. It was then necessary for simulation purposes to adjust the green times to maintain the observed capacities. The principles in Webster and Cobbe (Traffic signals, Technical Paper No. 56, Road Research Laboratory, H.M.S.O., London, England, 1966) were applied to achieve this.001D15C001D14O05295Trafic routier urbain01Urban road traffic01Tráfico vial urbano01Modèle simulation02Simulation model02Modelo simulación02Contrôle03Check03Control03Feu signalisation04Traffic lights04Semáforo04ThaïlandeNG05ThailandNG05TailandiaNG05Régulation trafic06Traffic control06Regulación tráfico06Description système07System description07Descripción sistema07Croisement routier08Cross roads08Intersección carretera08Ecoulement trafic09Traffic flow09Flujo tráfico09Congestion trafic10Traffic congestion10Congestión tráfico10Etude comparative11Comparative study11Estudio comparativo11Equation12Equation12Ecuación12Jonction13Junction13Reunión13AsieNGAsiaNGAsiaNG256 0761-8980RTSEEKRech. transp. sécur.60Les valeurs du temps des automobilistes à Marseille en 1995LEURENT (F.)INRETS-DEST, 2, avenue du Général Malleret-joinville94114 ArcueilFRA1 aut.19-381998FREengINIST168683540000837382200200000© 1999 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.22 ref.99-0255110PARecherche transports sécuritéFRAThe distribution of car drivers' values-of-time in Marseilles (1995)Version anglaise abrégéeDes enquêtes menées à Marseille en 1995 permettent d'étudier la concurrence entre des itinéraires routiers urbains à péage et des itinéraires gratuits. Nous formulons un modèle économétrique pour expliquer le choix binaire péage ou non en fonction du gain de temps moyen. Le modèle différencie les valeurs du temps (arbitrages entre prix et temps de parcours) dans la population, et il incorpore un aléa résiduel pour tenir compte forfaitairement des causes non explicitées. L'estimation du modèle par la méthode du maximum de vraisemblance montre tout d'abord que la dispersion des valeurs du temps est réelle, avec un rapport entre moyenne et médiane de 1,28 ; elle montre également que, pour un gain de temps donné, la variabilité des choix tient pour deux tiers à la variabilité des valeurs du temps, pour un tiers aux causes résiduelles. Une hypothèse supplémentaire permet d'estimer la valeur du temps moyenne à 70 F/h pour une voiture en déplacement urbain dans Marseille en 1995. L'article expose d'abord le modèle économique du comportement, puis analyse les observations disponibles et estime la distribution des valeurs du temps. Enfin nous indiquons les possibilités de transposition à d'autres problèmes de déplacement.001D15C001D15BTrafic routier urbain01Urban road traffic01Tráfico vial urbano01Bouches du RhôneNG02Bouches du RhôneNG02Bouches du RhôneNG02Itinéraire03Route03Itinerario03Temps04Time04Tiempo04Route à péage05Toll road05Carretera peaje05Simulation numérique06Numerical simulation06Simulación numérica06Modèle origine destination07Origin destination model07Modelo origen destinación07Modèle économique08Economic model08Modelo económico08Choix09Choice09Elección09Durée trajet10Travel time10Duración trayecto10Déplacement11Displacement11Desplazamiento11Tunnel routier12Road tunnel12Túnel carretera12Enquête13Survey13Encuesta13Estimation paramètre14Parameter estimation14Estimación parámetro14Fonction vraisemblance15Likelihood function15Función verosimilitud15Modèle économétrique16Econometric model16Modelo econométrico16Provence Alpes Côte d'AzurNGProvence Alpes Côte d'AzurNGProvence Alpes Côte d'AzurNGFranceNGFranceNGFranciaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG158 0041-0683TENCA4Traffic eng. control402Edinburgh city centre : A microsimulationcase-studyLAIRD (J.)DRUITT (S.)FRASER (B. D.)SIAS LimitedGBR1 aut.2 aut.The City of Edinburgh CouncilGBR3 aut.72-761999ENGINIST137293540000744973000300000© 1999 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.4 ref.99-0254180PATraffic engineering & controlGBRThi article is the third in a series on microsimulation, and follows 'An introduction to microsimulation' and 'Some real applications of microsimulation' published in &dquot;Traffic engineering & control&dquot; in late 1998.001D15CTrafic routier urbain01Urban road traffic01Tráfico vial urbano01Royaume UniNG02United KingdomNG02Reino UnidoNG02Etude cas03Case study03Estudio caso03Simulation numérique04Numerical simulation04Simulación numérica04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Stratégie06Strategy06Estrategia06Réseau routier07Road network07Red carretera07Affectation trafic08Traffic assignment08Afectación tráfico08Etalonnage09Calibration09Contraste09Validation10Validation10Validación10Modèle11Models11Modelo11Etude comparative12Comparative study12Estudio comparativo12Application13Application13Aplicación13Gestion trafic14Traffic management14Gestión tráfico14EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG158 0041-0683TENCA4Traffic eng. control3911Some real applications of microsimulationDRUITT (S.)SIAS LimitedINC1 aut.600-6071998ENGINIST137293540000729880600200000© 1999 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.1 ref.99-0180038PATraffic engineering & controlGBRIn the September 1998 issue of Traffic Engineering + Control, the article 'An Introduction to Microsimulation' suggested that the technique offers a unified approach to the analysis of traffic flow because it directly models its components instead of their mathematical proxy'. Microsimulation^* does not need explicitly to model vehicle platoons, shock waves, queueing behaviour at specific junction types, the local and strategic effects of bus priority schemes, or indeed the whole range of effects which result from traffic management measures at detailed, local, corridor or wide-area levels. These phenomena occur because they are a natural consequence of the modelling process. Microsimulation is synonymous with microsimplification, and schematically represents the individual vehicle driver in the individual vehicle reacting to other individuals and the immediate external constraints on freedom of movement. This simple definition of what actually constitutes road traffic is consistent with the view from behind the driver's wheel. The real components which contribute to traffic movement, such as kerb lines, traffic signals, bus lanes and 'no entry' signs, are either not moving, and therefore easy to represent in modelling terms, or, in the case of drivers, so heavily constrained that their movement can be readily described and tracked. Beyond the gruelling conditions of the supermarket car-park, the Toyota four-wheel drive Shopping Trolley has little opportunity to behave much differently from the clapped-out Mini, and so road traffic distills to little more than drivers' aggression and awareness, which depend as much on what was eaten for breakfast as on the vehicle driven. A randomised variation on normal driving behaviour and vehicle kinematics has proved sufficient to enable a wide range of commissions undertaken by SIAS using its 'Paramics' microscopic traffic simulation software to be validated in circumstances where other contemporary systems might struggle. In its early use, Paramics was generally deployed where an alternative purpose-built tool broke down while operating outside its validated locus. It quickly became apparent that microsimulation offered a more convincing representation of road traffic across the board, and the technique is now in general use on commissions for central and local government and the private sector. This article includes examples of microsimulation projects ranging from individual junctions to wide-area problems of rural and urban congestion, covering both common and unusual situations.001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Modèle simulation02Simulation model02Modelo simulación02Ecoulement trafic03Traffic flow03Flujo tráfico03Evaluation projet04Project evaluation04Evaluación proyecto04Exemple05Example05Ejemplo05Royaume UniNG06United KingdomNG06Reino UnidoNG06Zone urbaine07Urban area07Zona urbana07Zone rurale08Rural area08Zona rural08Congestion trafic09Traffic congestion09Congestión tráfico09Croisement routier10Cross roads10Intersección carretera10Signalisation routière11Road signalling11Señalización tráfico11Réseau routier12Road network12Red carretera12EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNG109 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1644Emergent fundamental pedestrian flows from cellular automata microsimulationTraffic flow theory: simulation models, macroscopic flow relationships, and flow estimation and predictionBLUE (V. J.)ADLER (J. L.)New York State Department of TransportationPoughkeepsie, NY 12603USA1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic InstituteTroy, NY 12180-3590USA2 aut.National Research Council. Transportation Research BoardWashington, DC 20418USApatr.29-361998ENGINIST10459B3540000742652200400000© 1999 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.15 ref.99-0170525PCATransportation research recordUSAIn recent years cellular automata (CA) have been successfully applied to modeling traffic flow. Use of a CA for modeling pedestrian flows is examined here. A particle hopping model for a single-directional pedestrian flow over a multilane walkway is presented. This model offers the advantage of effectively capturing the behaviors of pedestrians at the micro-level while attaining realistic macro-level activity. The emergent group behavior is an outgrowth of the interaction of the rule set in simulation. The results indicate that a heuristically derived minimal rule set produces flow patterns that closely resemble the accepted fundamental diagrams. Important parameters for determining the shape of the fundamental diagrams are examined. Key rules used in a vehicular traffic CA are tested for their applicability to the pedestrian CA model.001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Trafic piéton02Pedestrian traffic02Tráfico peatones02Simulation numérique03Numerical simulation03Simulación numérica03Ecoulement trafic04Traffic flow04Flujo tráfico04Automate cellulaire05Cellular automaton05Autómata celular05Méthode particule06Particle method06Método partícula06Analyse comportementale07Behavioral analysis07Análisis conductual07Véhicule routier08Road vehicle08Vehículo caminero08Formulation09Formulation09Formulación09Expérimentation10Experimentation10Experimentación10Marche à pied11Walking11Caminata11Espacement12Spacing12Espaciamiento12Distribution vitesse13Velocity distribution13Distribución velocidad13Densité population14Population density14Densidad población14102Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board77USA1998-01 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1644Construction and calibration of a large-scale microsimulation model of the Salt Lake AreaTraffic flow theory: simulation models, macroscopic flow relationships, and flow estimation and predictionRAKHA (H.)VAN AERDE (M.)BLOOMBERG (L.)HUANG (X.)Center for Transportation Research, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1700 Kraft Drive, Suite 2000 (0536)Blacksburg, VA 24061USA1 aut.2 aut.TransCore, 2000 Powell Street, Suite 1090Emeryville, CA 94608USA3 aut.Utah Department of Transportation, 4510 South 2700 WestSalt Lake City, UT 84114USA4 aut.National Research Council. Transportation Research BoardWashington, DC 20418USApatr.93-1021998ENGINIST10459B3540000742652201000000© 1999 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.7 ref.99-0170388PCATransportation research recordUSAThe objective of this paper is threefold. First, the feasibility of modeling a large-scale network at a microscopic level of detail is presented. Second, the unique data collection challenges that are involved in constructing and calibrating a large-scale network microscopically are described. Third, the unique opportunities and applications from the use of a microscopic as opposed to a macroscopic simulation tool are described. The possibility and feasibility of modeling a large-scale network using a microscopic simulation model is demonstrated. The requirements of a validated microscopic model for large-scale modeling are: (a) the model must be capable of modeling origin-destination demand tables, (b) the model must be capable of modeling dynamic traffic routing, and (c) the model must be capable of modeling the dynamic interaction of freeway/arterial facilities. The data collection and coding exercise for microscopic models is more intensive than for macroscopic models. The calibration exercise for a microscopic model to a large-scale network, although feasible, is by no means an easy task and does require expert assistance. The Salt Lake metropolitan region study has demonstrated that the data collection, coding, and calibration exercise is approximately a 4-person-year exercise. Model execution times during peak periods are still quite high (from 2 to 17 times the simulation time depending on the number of vehicles) for the PC platform (Pentium 200 with 64 megabytes of random-access memory). Consequently, tools that can extract portions of the large-scale network can allow the modeler to conduct various types of sensitivity analyses within a more realistic time frame.001D15BTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Simulation numérique02Numerical simulation02Simulación numérica02Ecoulement trafic03Traffic flow03Flujo tráfico03Modèle origine destination04Origin destination model04Modelo origen destinación04Acheminement05Routing05Encaminamiento05Collecte donnée06Data gathering06Recolección dato06Codage07Coding07Codificación07Modèle microscopique08Microscopic model08Modelo microscópico08Développement logiciel09Software development09Desarrollo logicial09UtahNG10UtahNG10UtahNG10Volume trafic11Capacity of traffic11Volumen tráfico11Configuration ordinateur12Computer configuration12Configuración ordenador12Temps calcul13Computation time13Tiempo computación13Microprocesseur14Microprocessor14Microprocesador14Coefficient corrélation15Correlation coefficient15Coeficiente correlación15Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG102Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board77USA1998-01 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1645Forecasting short-term freight transportation demand : Poisson STARMA modelForecasting, travel behavior, and network modelingGARRIDO (R. A.)MAHMASSANI (H. S.)Department of Transportation Engineering, College of Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Casilla 306, Codigo 105SantiagoCHL1 aut.Department of Civil Engineering and Department of Management Science and Information Systems, University of TexasAustin, TX 78712USA2 aut.Transportation Research BoardWashingtonUSApatr.8-161998ENGINIST10459B3540000742873400200000© 1999 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.15 ref.99-0169947PCATransportation research recordUSAA framework for analyzing, describing, and forecasting freight flows for operational and tactical purposes is presented. A dynamic econometric model is proposed. This model incorporates the spatial and temporal characteristics of freight demand within a stochastic framework. The model was applied in an actual context and its performance was compared with standard time series models (benchmark) for forecasting ability. The proposed model outperformed the benchmark from the econometric viewpoint. Extensive diagnostic checking and sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the modeling methodology for short-term forecasting applications.001D15BTransport marchandise01Freight transportation01Transporte mercadería01Planification02Planning02Planificación02Demande transport03Transport demand03Demanda transporte03Simulation numérique04Numerical simulation04Simulación numérica04Modèle prévision05Forecast model05Modelo previsión05Ecoulement trafic06Traffic flow06Flujo tráfico06Modèle économétrique07Econometric model07Modelo econométrico07Analyse spatiale08Spatial analysis08Análisis espacial08Analyse temporelle09Time analysis09Análisis temporal09Estimation paramètre10Parameter estimation10Estimación parámetro10Loi Poisson11Poisson distribution11Ley Poisson11Application12Application12Aplicación12Spécification13Specification13Especificación13Matrice corrélation14Correlation matrix14Matriz correlación14Aide diagnostic15Diagnostic aid15Ayuda diagnóstica15102Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board771998-01 0010-4809CBMRB7Comput. biomed. res.321The MISCAN-COLON simulation model for the evaluation of colorectal cancer screeningLOEVE (F.)BOER (R.)VAN OORTMARSSEN (G. J.)VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (M.)HABBEMA (J. D. F.)Department of Public Health, Medical Faculty, Erasmus University RotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.5 aut.13-331999ENGINIST134903540000743451800200000© 1999 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.30 ref.99-0152285PAComputers and biomedical researchUSAA general model for evaluation of colorectal cancer screening has been implemented in the microsimulation program MISCAN-COLON. A large number of fictitious individual life histories are simulated in each of which several colorectal lesions can emerge. Next, screening for colorectal cancer is simulated, which will change some of the life histories. The demographic characteristics, the epidemiology and natural history of the disease, and the characteristics of screening are defined in the input. All kinds of assumptions on the natural history of colorectal cancer and screening and surveillance strategies can easily be incorporated in the model. MISCAN-COLON gives detailed output of incidence, prevalence and mortality, and the results and effects of screening. It can be used to test hypotheses about the natural history of colorectal cancer, such as the duration of progressive adenomas, and screening characteristics, such as sensitivity of tests, against empirical data. In decision making about screening, the model can be used for evaluation of screening policies, and for choosing between competing policies by comparing their simulated incremental costs and effectiveness outcomes.002B13B01Tumeur maligne01Malignant tumor01Tumor maligno01Côlon02Colon02Colón02Rectum03Rectum03Recto03Simulation ordinateur05Computer simulation05Simulación computadora05Modélisation06Modeling06Modelización06Implémentation07Implementation07Ejecución07Pronostic08Prognosis08Pronóstico08Estimation paramètre09Parameter estimation09Estimación parámetro09Développement maladie10Disease development10Desarrollo enfermedad10Informatique biomédicale04Biomedical data processing04Informática biomédical04Appareil digestif pathologie37Digestive diseases37Aparato digestivo patología37Intestin pathologie38Intestinal disease38Intestino patología38Côlon pathologie39Colonic disease39Colón patología39Rectum pathologie40Rectal disease40Recto patología40088 Microsimulation of rapidly resolidifying dendritic main morphologiesECLAT : European conference on laser treatment of materials : Hannover, 22-23 September 1998NESTLER (B.)PAVLIK (V.)MORDIKE (B.L.)ed.Foundry Institute, University of Aachen52072 AachenDEU1 aut.ISF-Welding Institute, University of Aachen52062 AachenDEU2 aut.271-2761998ENGWerkstoff-InformationsgesellschftFrankfurt3-88355-263-1European conference on laser treatment of materialsHannover DEU1998-09-22INISTY 320543540000731353004200000© 1999 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.7 ref.99-0135908CADEUWe use a recently proposed 2-dimensional cellular-automaton (CA) method to model dendritic grain morphologies of the solidification microstructure that is formed after remelting metallic surfaces with a high energy source. The simulations are aimed to investigate the changes in morphologies depending on the process parameters. The specific and extreme conditions during rapid solidification are reflected by using results of calculated temperature fields at a macroscopic scale as an input data for the microstructure model. Furthermore, the reliability of our numerical model is explored by metallographic studies. The comparison with these experimentally observed grain structures shows that this micro-simulation technique allows the visualization, description and prediction of resolidifying microstructures.001B80A30F240Solidification01Solidification01Microstructure02Microstructure02Automate cellulaire03Cellular automata03Structure dendritique04Dendritic structure04Dendrite05Dendrites05Modélisation06Modelling06Refusion07Remelting07Umschmelzen07Refusión07Fusion laser08Laser beam melting08Fusion surface09Surface melting09Oberflaechenschmelzen09Fusión superficie09Traitement surface10Surface treatments10Alliage base aluminiumNK11Aluminium base alloysNK11Silicium alliage12Silicon alloys12Alliage binaire13Binary alloys13Etude théorique23Theoretical study23Etude expérimentale24Experimental study24Alliage Al96Si4NKINC32Al SiINC338130FPACINC95Métal groupe IIIANC14Group IIIA metalNC14Metal grupo IIIANC14084 0336-1454315Les retraites individuelles à long terme : une projection par microsimulationBLANCHET (Didier)CHANUT (Jean-Marie)95-1061998FREBDSP/ENSP98 N:315 p.95-10688001 p.99-0100113PAECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUEFRAL'avenir des retraites est généralement envisagé en termes globaux : projection des grandes masses, des niveaux de prestations ou des taux de cotisations moyens. Ceci peut se faire à l'aide de modèles relativement agrégés. Mais l'évolution des retraites présente aussi des enjeux individuels : quels seront les individus les plus touchés par tel ou tel type de réforme, comment les modifications des droits interagiront-elles avec d'autres évolutions, telle que l'évolution des carrières individuelles, des structures familiales. Un modèle de microsimulation dynamique est l'outil le plus adapté pour répondre à de telles questions. La construction d'un tel modèle est nécessairement progressive. Quelques résultats préliminaires illustrent la variété des ses utilisations potentielles, mais aussi l'importance des hypothèses qui les sous-tendent002B30A07BEconomieEconomyWirtschaftEconomíaRetraiteRetirementJubilaciónPrévisionForecastingPrognosePrevisiónModèleModelsModeloDémographieDemographyDemografíaEvolutionEvolutionEvolución060 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1623Models for predicting bus delaysTransit: Bus, paratransit, rural, intermodal, rail, commuter and intercity rail, light railABDELFATTAH (A. M.)KHAN (A. M.)Computran Systems Corporation, 51 S. Main Ave.Clearwater, FL 33765-3952USA1 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carleton UniversityOttawa, Ontario K1S 5B6CAN2 aut.Transportation Research BoardWashington DCUSApatr.8-151998ENGINIST10459B3540000729600800200000© 1999 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.7 ref.99-0081768PCATransportation research recordUSAThe provision of accurate bus arrival time information to users is essential for improving the attractiveness of public transit service. Although bus-tracking technology provides real-time information to the control center about the location of a bus, there is a need to improve the prediction of bus travel time downstream from location of last observation in mixed traffic operations. Methods are required for making predictions in normal traffic conditions, as well as in conditions in which a temporary lane closure is experienced due to a variety of reasons, such as incidents and road improvement activities. The development of models for the estimation of the effect of changes in traffic and lane closures on bus performance is described. A microsimulation approach was used, supplemented by field studies. The models developed meet calibration tests and were verified by field data.001D15CTransport routier01Road transportation01Strassentransport01Transporte por carretera01Autobus02Bus02Autobus02Autobus02Transport voyageur03Passenger transportation03Transporte pasajero03Temps retard04Delay time04Tiempo retardo04Simulation numérique05Numerical simulation05Simulación numérica05Modèle prévision06Forecast model06Modelo previsión06Temps arrivée07Arrival time07Tiempo llegada07Gestion information08Information management08Gestión información08Etude méthode09Method study09Estudio método09Collecte donnée10Data gathering10Recolección dato10Analyse donnée11Data analysis11Análisis datos11Réseau routier12Road network12Red carretera12Etalonnage13Calibration13Kalibrieren13Contraste13Validation14Validation14Validación14Application15Application15Anwendung15Aplicación15046Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board771998-01 315Les enseignements théoriques et pratiques des microsimulations en économie de la santé. BREUIL GENIER (P.)Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques. (I.N.S.E.E.). Paris.FRA73-94tabl.1998FREBDSP/CREDES16421, S188800dissem.99-0054080PAECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUEFRAEn matière de santé peut-être encore plus que dans d'autres domaines des sciences sociales, le terme de microsimulation est employé pour désigner des modélisations très différentes : application d'un nouveau barème de remboursement à des données de dépenses de santé, agrégation de comportements individuels théoriques en information imparfaite, modélisation des interactions entre environnement socioéconomique, santé et soins, etc. Le type de modèle construit dépend évidemment de l'objectif poursuivi, et donc en général de l'utilisateur présumé du modèle. Pour schématiser, les organismes proches des pouvoirs publics privilégient le calcul de l'incidence d'une réforme sur les dépenses de santé socialisées, les statisticiens utilisent la microsimulation pour mettre en cohérence les données dont ils disposent ou éventuellement pour générer celles qui manquent, les épidémiologistes modélisent la survenue d'une maladie et parfois son traitement clinique, les économistes théoriciens s'appuient sur la microsimulation pour lier comportements individuels et agrégats macroéconomiques. Un examen de la littérature, centrée sur les modèles analysant plutôt la demande de soins, permet de faire ressortir l'intérêt de ces diverses utilisations et la richesse des résultats qui peuvent d'ores et déjà en être dégagés.002B30A11RégulationRegulation(control)RegelungRegulaciónAssurance maladieHealth insuranceSeguro enfermedadProtection socialeWelfare aidsProtección socialRisqueRiskRiesgoEtude comparativeComparative studyVergleichEstudio comparativoModèleModelsModeloBibliographieBibliographyBibliographieBibliografíaThéorieTheoryTheorieTeoríaDemandeDemandPeticiónSantéHealthSaludEconomie santéHealth economyEconomía saludComportementBehaviorConductaFranceNGFranceNGFrankreichNGFranciaNGAllemagneNGGermanyNGAlemaniaNGEtats UnisNGUnited StatesNGVereinigte StaatenNGEstados UnidosNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEuropaNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGNordamerikaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG032 315Franchise sur les soins ambulatoires et équité sociale. LACHAUD FIUME (C.)LARGERON LETENO (C.)ROCHAIX RANSON (L.)Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques. (I.N.S.E.E.). Paris.FRA51-72tabl., graph., ann.1998FREBDSP/CREDES16420, S18880099-0054079PAECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUEFRALa maîtrise des dépenses de santé s'est davantage portée, depuis le début des années 90, sur la régulation de l'offre que sur celle de la demande, en maintenant inchangés le niveau et la structure de la participation financière des usagers. Leur responsabilisation resta cependant au coeur du débat et dans cette hypothèse, la mise en place de franchises sur le remboursement des soins pourrait constituer un facteur efficace de réduction du &dquot;risque moral&dquot;. Un modèle de microsimulation a été construit pour en évaluer les conséquences en termes d'équité et du point de vue de leur acceptabilité.002B30A11RégulationRegulation(control)RegelungRegulaciónRisqueRiskRiesgoRevenu individuelPersonal incomeRenta personalMilieu familialFamily environmentMedio familiarModèleModelsModeloContrôleCheckControlDépenseExpenditureGastoDemandeDemandPeticiónSantéHealthSaludUtilisateurUserUsuarioFranceNGFranceNGFrankreichNGFranciaNGAmbulatoireAmbulatoryAmbulatorioSoinCareCuidadoEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEuropaNG032 0041-0683TENCA4Traffic eng. control399An introduction to microsimulationDRUITT (S.)SIAS LimitedINC1 aut.480-4831998ENGINIST137293540000710313900200000© 1999 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.99-0034681PATraffic engineering & controlGBR001D15CTrafic routier01Road traffic01Tráfico carretera01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Ecoulement trafic04Traffic flow04Flujo tráfico04Comportement individuel05Individual behavior05Comportamiento individual05Conducteur véhicule06Vehicle driver06Conductor vehículo06Validation07Validation07Validación07018 0014-0015532Simulating the long-term labour market effects of an industrial investment. A microsimulation approachLINDGREN (U.)150-1624 fig., 3 tabl.1999ENGgerengINTG820045 réf.531-99-13034PAErdkundeDEUL'A. analyse les effets à long terme d'un investissement industriel sur le marché du travail suédois avec l'exemple de la société SCA située à Sundsvall au nord du pays et productrice de papier. L'A., se basant sur des études passées, conçoit une micro-simulation prévisionnelle sur 15 ans à partir de données sur les 103000 habitants de Sundsvall en activité sur place entre 1990 et 1993. Il conclut qu'il y a nécessité de faire toujours de nouveaux investissements technologiques et que les effets sur le marché du travail sont directs et indirects, avec risque de chômage accru en cas de fermeture de l'usine. - (M. Perrin)531133IV531Simulation56301Simulation56301Scénario56302Scenario56302Impact économique56303Economic impact56303Logiciel56304Software56304Innovation56305Innovation56305Investissement56306Investment56306Modèle démo-économique56307Demographic-economic model56307Population active56308Working population56308Chômage56309Unemployment56309Industrie du papier56310Paper industry56310Compétitivité56311Competitiveness56311Travail56312Labour56312Marché local du travail56313Local labour market56313Fermeture d'usine56314Factory closure56314SuèdeNG22SwedenNG22NorrlandNGINC23SundsvallNGINC24U101!07,06,13,10!24,23,22U112!05,06,07,10!24,23,22U222!23!24,01,07,10277 0336-1454Econ. stat315Les retraites individuelles à long terme : une projection par microsimulation : Les modèles de microsimulationBLANCHET (D.)CHANUT (J.-M.)Division &dquot;Redistribution et politiques sociales&dquot; de l'InseeFRA1 aut.2 aut.95-106, 111-116 [18 p.]1998FREenggerspaINIST242283540000716198800500000© 1999 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.18 ref.521-99-11531PAEconomie et statistiqueFRALong-term individual pensions: A microsimulated forecastL'avenir des retraites est généralement envisagé en termes globaux : projection des grandes masses, des niveaux de prestations ou des taux de cotisations moyens. Ceci peut se faire à l'aide de modèles relativement agrégés. Mais l'évolution des retraites présente aussi des enjeux individuels : qui seront les individus les plus touchés par tel ou tel type de réforme ? Comment les modifications de droits interagiront-elles avec d'autres évolutions, telles que l'évolution des carrières individuelles ou des structures familiales ? Un modèle de microsimulation dynamique est l'outil le plus adapté pour répondre à de telles questions. A partir d'un échantillon de données individuelles, représentatif de la population totale, il consiste à simuler le vieillissement des individus, tant du point de vue démographique qu'économique, ainsi que de leurs droits sociaux. La construction d'un tel modèle est nécessairement progressive. Quelques résultats préliminaires illustrent la variété de ses utilisations potentielles, mais aussi l'importance des hypothèses qui les sous-tendent.52164XVI521Retraite01Retirement01Assurance vieillesse02Retirement benefit02Simulation03Simulation03Projection04Projection04Inégalité05Inequality05Facteur démographique06Demographic factor06Individu07Individual07Ménage08Household08Revenu09Income09Evénements du cycle de vie10Life events10130 0336-1454Econ. stat315Les enseignements théoriques et pratiques des microsimulations en économie de la santé : Les modèles de microsimulationBREUIL-GENIER (P.)Bureau Économie de la santé de la direction de la Sécurité socialeFRA1 aut.73-94, 111-116 [28 p.]1998FREenggerspaINIST242283540000716198800400000© 1999 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.2 p.1/2521-99-11527PAEconomie et statistiqueFRAThe theoretical and practical lessons learnt from microsimulations in health care economicsEn matière de santé peut-être encore plus que dans d'autres domaines des sciences sociales, le terme de microsimulation est employé pour désigner des modélisations très différentes : application d'un nouveau barème de remboursement à des données de dépenses de santé, agrégation de comportements individuels théoriques en information imparfaite, modélisation des interactions entre environnement socioéconomique, santé et soins, etc. Le type de modèle construit dépend évidemment de l'objectif poursuivi, et donc en général de l'utilisateur présumé du modèle. Pour schématiser, les organismes proches des pouvoirs publics privilégient le calcul de l'incidence d'une réforme sur les dépenses de santé socialisées, les statisticiens utilisent la microsimulation pour mettre en cohérence les données dont ils disposent ou éventuellement pour générer celles qui leur manquent, les épidémiologistes modélisent la survenue d'une maladie et parfois son traitement clinique, les économistes théoriciens s'appuient sur la microsimulation pour lier comportements individuels et agrégats macroéconomiques. Un examen de cette littérature, centrée sur les modèles analysant plutôt la demande de soins, permet de faire ressortir l'intérêt de ces diverses utilisations et la richesse des résultats qui peuvent d'ores été déjà en être dégagés.52164XVI521FranceNG01FranceNG01Economie de la santé02Health Economics02Simulation03Simulation03Modélisation04Modeling04Assurance maladie05Health insurance05Seguro de enfermedad05Epidémiologie06Epidemiology06AllemagneNG07GermanyNG07Etats-UnisNG08United States Of AmericaNG08Politique sociale09Social Policy09Dépense10Expenditures10Financement11Financing11Fiscalité12Fiscal System12Soin médical13Health Care13Politique de la santé14Health Policy14Acceptabilité socialeNIINC31130 0336-1454Econ. stat315Franchise sur les soins ambulatoires et équité sociale : Microsimulation d'une voie de responsabilisation des usagers du système de soins : Les modèles de microsimulationLACHAUD-FIUME (C.)LARGERON-LETENO (C.)ROCHAIX-RANSON (L.)Université Lyon I, URA 934FRA1 aut.Université Jean Monnet Saint-Étienne - LASS - Lyon IFRA2 aut.Université de Bretagne occidentale, département d'Économie et Laboratoire ICI (Information, Coordination, Incitations)FRA3 aut.51-72, 111-116 [28 p.]1998FREenggerspaINIST242283540000716198800300000© 1999 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.25 ref.521-99-11526PAEconomie et statistiqueFRAUninsured out-patient care and social equity: Microsimulation of a way of making health system users pay for their spendingLa maîtrise des dépenses de santé s'est davantage portée, depuis le début des années 90, sur la régulation de l'offre que sur celle de la demande, en maintenant inchangés le niveau et la structure de la participation financière des usagers. Leur responsabilisation reste cependant au cœur du débat et dans cette hypothèse, la mise en place de franchises sur le remboursement des soins pourrait constituer un facteur efficace de réduction du « risque moral ». Un modèle de microsimulation a été construit pour en évaluer les conséquences en termes d'équité et du point de vue de leur acceptabilité sociale. Le montant d'une franchise, uniforme pour toutes les familles d'assurés sociaux, déterminé par un objectif modéré d'économie globale, s'élèverait à environ 1 000 francs par an et par famille. Comme attendu, un tel dispositif pénaliserait les familles disposant des revenus les plus modestes. Ce caractère régressif pourrait être atténué par une fixation individuelle du montant de la franchise, tenant compte de la taille et des ressources de la famille. Une modulation suivant le niveau de revenu par personne, notamment, permet même d'aboutir à une situation plus équitable que la situation initiale sans franchise. Avec cette hypothèse, le seuil imposé aux familles appartenant à la tranche médiane de revenu s'avère une variable déterminante pour un tel objectif d'équité verticale.52164XVI521FranceNG01FranceNG01Politique sociale02Social Policy02Sécurité sociale03Social Security03Usager04User04Equité05Equity05Economie de la santé06Health Economics06Consommation médicale07Health Care Utilization07Dépense08Expenditures08Ménage09Household09Revenu10Income10Simulation11Simulation11Assurance maladie12Health insurance12Seguro de enfermedad12130 0336-1454Econ. stat315Les modèles statiques de microsimulation en Europe dans les années 90 : Les modèles de microsimulationSUTHERLAND (H.)Microsimulation Unit, au département d'Économie appliquée de l'université de CambridgeGBR1 aut.35-50, 111-116 [22 p.]1998FREenggerspaINIST242283540000716198800200000© 1999 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.7 ref.521-99-11525PAEconomie et statistiqueFRAStatic microsimulation models in Europe in the 1990sLes modèles de microsimulation sont désormais couramment utilisés comme moyen d'analyse des politiques économiques et sociales. Ils ont de nombreux domaines d'application, depuis des modèles essentiellement expérimentaux, à caractère universitaire, jusqu'à des modèles polyvalents, conçus pour des utilisateurs multiples, destinés à durer, et répondant aux besoins de décideurs gouvernementaux. S'attachant principalement aux modèles statiques de revenu individuel et de dépenses des ménages, et à leur utilisation pour simuler les transferts fiscaux et sociaux, cet article précise l'état de ce type de modélisation, vers le milieu des années 90, dans cinq pays de l'Union européenne : Belgique, France, Irlande, Italie et Royaume-Uni. Les moyens que ces modèles mettent en oeuvre ainsi que leur statut (au sein de l'administration ou dans le cadre de la recherche théorique) sont très variables. Une part de ces divergences peut trouver son explication dans une disponibilité des microdonnées fortement contrastée d'un pays à l'autre. Ces différences posent la question de la cohérence de ces modèles, et de la possibilité de les utiliser simultanément afin d'analyser les effets, dans chaque pays, de politiques qui seraient mises en oeuvre au niveau européen : de telles comparaisons se heurtent encore, en l'état actuel, à de nombreuses difficultés, qui ne pourront être résolues que de manière progressive.52118IV521Simulation01Simulation01Statistique02Statistics02Traitement automatique des données03Automatic Data Processing03Analyse comparative04Comparative analysis04Econométrie05Econometric Analysis05Politique sociale06Social Policy06Informatique07Computer Science07EuropeNG08EuropeNG08Fiscalité09Fiscal System09Redistribution des revenus10Income Redistribution10Evaluation11Evaluation11Collecte de données12Data collection12Fiabilité13Reliability13Politique économique14Economic Policy14Information15Information15Administration publique16Public administration16Correction de donnéesNIINC31AccessibilitéNIINC32130 0277-6715Stat. med.1721Assessing uncertainty in microsimulation modelling with application to cancer screening interventionsCRONIN (K. A.)LEGLER (J. M.)ETZIONI (R. D.)Biometry Branch, National Cancer Institute, EPN 313, 6130, Executive Plaza NorthBethesda, MD 20892USA1 aut.Applied Research Branch, National Cancer Institute, EPN 313, 6130 Executive Plaza NorthBethesda, MD 20892USA2 aut.Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 1124 Columbia Street, MP-665Seattle, WA 98104-2092USA3 aut.2509-25231998ENGINIST196243540000716005500600000© 1998 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.37 ref.98-0534112PAStatistics in medicineGBRMicrosimulation is fast becoming the approach of choice for modelling and analysing complex processes in the absence of mathematical tractability. While this approach has been developed and promoted in engineering contexts for some time, it has more recently found a place in the mainstream of the study of chronic disease interventions such as cancer screening. The construction of a simulation model requires the specification of a model structure and sets of parameter values, both of which may have a considerable amount of uncertainty associated with them. This uncertainty is rarely quantified when reporting microsimulation results. We suggest a Bayesian approach and assume a parametric probability distribution to mathematically express the uncertainty related to model parameters. First, we design a simulation experiment to achieve good coverage of the parameter space. Second, we model a response surface for the outcome of interest as a function of the model parameters using the simulation results. Third, we summarize the variability in the outcome of interest, including variation due to parameter uncertainty, using the response surface in combination with parameter probability distributions. We illustrate the proposed method with an application of a microsimulator designed to investigate the effect of prostate specific antigen (PSA) screening on prostate cancer mortality rates.002B28FTumeur maligne01Malignant tumor01Tumor maligno01Incertitude02Uncertainty02Incertidumbre02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Simulation04Simulation04Simulation04Simulación04Estimation Bayes05Bayes estimation05Estimación Bayes05Analyse quantitative06Quantitative analysis06Quantitative Analyse06Análisis cuantitativo06Estimation paramètre07Parameter estimation07Estimación parámetro07Méthode statistique08Statistical method08Método estadístico08Approche probabiliste09Probabilistic approach09Enfoque probabilista09Efficacité traitement10Treatment efficiency10Eficacia tratamiento10Homme11Human11Hombre11349 0015-7473FPJOABFor. prod. j.489Productivity and cost relationships for harvesting ponderosa pine plantationsHARTSOUGH (B. R.)GICQUEAU (A.)FIGHT (R. D.)Biological and Agri. Engineering, Univ. of CaliforniaDavis, CA 95616USA1 aut.Axolotl Corp.Cupertino, CA 95014USA2 aut.Pacific Northwest Res. Sta., USDA Forest Serv., P.O. Box 3890Portland, OR 97208USA3 aut.87-931998ENGINIST127093540000705969501200000© 1998 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.52 ref.98-0519229PAForest products journalUSARealistic logging cost models are needed for long-term forest management planning. Data from many published studies have been combined with simple simulations to develop relations that can be used to estimate the cost of harvesting plantation-grown ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) in western North America. For gentle terrain, whole-tree/log-length and cut-to-length systems were considered. Tree-length/loglength cable logging was included for steeper terrain. The relations are applicable for trees from 3 to 250 cubic feet. A stand-alone program incorporating all the relations is available.002A33FCoût01Costs01Kosten01Costo01Débardage02Timber extraction02Saca madera02Exploitation forestière03Forest logging03Explotación forestal03Planning gestion04Management planning04Unternehmensplanung04Programación gestión04Simulation ordinateur05Computer simulation05Elektronenrechnersimulation05Simulación computadora05Fonction coût07Cost function07Función coste07Modèle économétrique08Econometric model08Modelo econométrico08Modèle simulation09Simulation model09Modelo simulación09Peuplement forestier artificiel10Artificial forest stand10Plantación forestal10Pinus ponderosaNS11Pinus ponderosaNS11Pinus ponderosaNS11Etats UnisNG20United StatesNG20Vereinigte StaatenNG20Estados UnidosNG20Etude économique27Economic study27Wirtschaftlichkeit27Estudio económico27Etude méthode28Method study28Estudio método28Etude sur modèle29Model study29Modellversuch29Estudio sobre modelo29Exploitation par arbre entierCD96Whole tree loggingCD96Saca de arboles completosCD96Exploitation par fûts entiersCD97Tree length loggingCD97Aprovechamiento de árboles enterosCD97ETATS DU PACIFIQUE (EU)NGCD99PACIFIC STATES (USA)NGCD99ESTADOS DEL PACIFICO (EUA)NGCD99ConiferalesNSConiferalesNSConiferalesNSGymnospermaeNSGymnospermaeNSGymnospermaeNSSpermatophytaNSSpermatophytaNSSpermatophytaNSAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGNordamerikaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNGEconomie mathématique33Mathematical economy33Economía matemática33Foresterie34Forestry34Ciencias forestales34Gestion forestière35Forest management35Administración forestal35Gestion automatisée36Assisted management36Gestión automatizada36Ingénierie37Engineering37Ingeniería37Recherche opérationnelle38Operations research38Operations Research38Investigación operacional38Arbre forestier résineux41Softwood forest tree41Arbol forestal resinoso41341 1L'impact de la réforme de 1993 des retraites du régime général : une analyse par microsimulationLes retraites et la protection sociale en EuropePELE (L.P.)Ministère de la Solidarité de la Santé et de la Protection Sociale. Service des Statistiques des Etudes et des Systèmes d'Information. (S.E.S.I.). Paris.FRA25-331998-01/1998-03FREBDSP/CREDES16075, S198800dissem.98-0507610PASOLIDARITE SANTE ETUDES STATISTIQUESFRAQuel a été et quel sera l'impact de la réforme de 1993 sur l'âge de départ à la retraite ? L'étude repose sur un modèle de microsimulation permettant de comparer les liquidations avec les barèmes d'avant et d'après sa mise en oeuvre. Les résultats montrent que l'impact de la réforme est relativement limité sur les nombres d'actifs, d'inactifs, de préretraites ou de retraités dans la classe d'âge 55-65 ans ; il paraît plus sensible sur l'âge moyen à la liquidation même s'il n'agit que sur les flux et n'a de répercussions sur les stocks qu'à long terme002B30A11RetraiteRetirementJubilaciónGénérationGenerationGeneraciónModèleModelsModeloAgeAgeEdadFranceNGFranceNGFrankreichNGFranciaNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEuropaNG334 0928-7655Resour. energy econ.203An individual choice model of energy mixBOUSQUET (A.)IVALDI (M.)Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique and Institut D'Economie IndustrielleToulouseFRA1 aut.Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique and Institut D'Economie IndustrielleParisFRA1 aut.Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique, INSEEParisFRA1 aut.GREMAQ-EHESS, Institut D'Economie IndustrielleToulouseFRA2 aut.GREMAQ-EHESS, Institut D'Economie IndustrielleParisFRA2 aut.263-2861998ENGINIST178353540000704117200400000© 1998 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.26 ref.98-0489646PAResource and energy economicsNLDUsually firms operate with a restricted number of energy sources. In the dairy industry, most firms have multi-energy systems allowing them to shift from one energy source to another at almost no cost. Zero expenditures are observed because firms minimize costs and non-negativity constraints on the demand functions are binding. Estimation of demand systems when the probability of observing zero expenditures is not nil has already received attention from econometricians. However, most surveys generally report prices only for the subset of goods actually purchased. The econometrician faces a problem of missing price observations when zero expenditures occur. The originality of our approach is to propose a combined and coherent treatment of both the zero expenditures and missing data. Price equations are added to the demand system and the cost-minimizing mix of energy inputs leads to a simultaneous equation/limited dependent variable model. A general framework is provided in which it is possible to formulate parameter restrictions which guarantee consistency of the cost minimizing model and its relationship to a generalized tobit model with errors in variables. An application to a sample drawn from a survey on firms of the French dairy industry shows the strength of a model which decomposes the choice of energy mix in two parts: a qualitative preference and a quantitative decision. A micro-simulation model gives evidence of the practical use of this study. Nonetheless some theoretical points remain unsolved and should motivate further research.001D06A01A001D06A01C1230Industrie laitière01Dairy industry01Industria láctea01Entreprise02Firm02Unternehmen02Empresa02Demande énergie03Energy demand03Demanda energía03Choix04Choice04Elección04Source énergie05Energy source05Fuente energética05Consommation énergie06Energy consumption06Energieverbrauch06Consumo energía06Répartition par source07Distribution by sources07Repartición por fuente07Analyse coût08Cost analysis08Análisis costo08Prix09Price09Precio09Modèle économétrique10Econometric model10Modelo econométrico10FranceNG11FranceNG11FrankreichNG11FranciaNG11EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEuropaNG320 0965-8564Transp. res., Part A Policy pract.325Operating subsidies and performance in public transit : An empirical studyKARLAFTIS (M. G.)MCCARTHY (P.)Department of Engineering, Hellenic Air ForceAthensGRC1 aut.Department of Economics, Purdue UniversityWest Lafayette, IndianaUSA2 aut.359-3751998ENGINIST12377A3540000723857000500000© 1998 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.42 ref.98-0480767PATransportation research. Part A, Policy and practiceGBRBased upon several studies analyzing the effects of public transit subsidies on a system's performance, there is a consensus that public transit subsidies have increased a system's effectiveness but compromized its efficiency and overall performance. In addition to providing an extensive review of recent work on this topic, the present analysis extends prior empirical research in two significant directions. First, this study controls for cross-section heterogeneity and autocorrelation that may otherwise seriously bias the resulting estimates and invalidate statistical tests. Second, in addition to examining the effect of subsidy by source (local, state, and federal), the paper statistically tests for differential subsidy effects by system size, a topic on which the literature has been surprisingly quiet. Based upon an analysis of panel data for fixed route public transit systems in Indiana, subsidies have no general effect on transit performance. Rather, transit system size significantly influences the effect that subsidies, both in total and disaggregated by source, have on performance. Further, a simulation analysis indicates that redistributing subsidies with no change in the total subsidy level will have little impact upon transit performance, a finding which may have important implications for evaluating alternative allocation schemes.001D15BTransport voyageur26Passenger transportation26Transporte pasajero26Transport public27Public transportation27Transporte público27Temps parcours28Transit time28Tiempo recorrido28Modèle économétrique29Econometric model29Modelo econométrico29Subvention30Subsidy30Subvención30Echelon national31National scope31Escalafón nacional31Echelon régional32Regional scope32Escalafón regional32IndianaNG33IndianaNG33IndianaNG33Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGVereinigte StaatenNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGNordamerikaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG313 0949-166XEuroheat power276Volkswirtschaftliche Effekte aufgrund der Investitionen in der österreichischen Fernwärmewirtschaft von 1996 bis 2006SCHNEIDER (F.)Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Johannes Kepler Universität LinzAUT1 aut.16-181998GERengINIST158323540000728412900100000© 1998 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.98-0439812PAEuroheat & powerDEUEffects on the Austrian economy caused by the investment of the heat and power industryThe Austrian heat and power industry is undertaking considerable amount of investments over the period 1996 up to 2001. The total amount is 11.7 billion Austrian Schillings (AS) and the investment is mostly undertaken in the construction sector (33.8 %), followed in the metal industry (33.4 %), in a machinery industry (10.9%) and pipelines sector (9.9%). The goal of this study is to calculate how big are the effects on the Austrian economy from these investments. With the help of an econometrically estimated simulation model for Austria, it is investigated how large are the multiplier effects due to this investment plans of the Austrian heat and power industry over the years 1996 up to 2006. With the help of this simulation model one can set up two scenarios. A first scenario without the planned (and partly already realized) investments and a second scenario, in which these investments of the Austrian heat and power industry are considered in the simulation model. Due to the different simulation results of the two scenarios, it is possible to calculate how big are the economic effects (e.g. additional employment, additional gross national product and additional income) for Austria but also for single Austrian states. The simulation results clearly show that the additional value added of gross national product over the period 1996 to 2006 is on average 6.075 billion AS per year. Also the employment effect is quite sizeable and is on average 3,347 additional employment per year over the period 1996 to 2006. Due to this investment the additional income is on average per year 1.075 billion AS over the period 1996 to 2006. The simulation results for Austria clearly demonstrate that the undertaken investments of the Austrian heat and power industry induce large additional economic effects, which will clearly stimulate the Austrian economy and help to reduce unemployment and stabilize the demand. Also these investments are from an ecological perspective worthwhile to consider, because they reduce pollution intensive heating systems of single households, which still use coal or oil burning systems.001D06A01C4230Industrie électriqueP01Electric industryP01Production énergie électrique02Electric power generation02Production chaleur03Heat production03Producción calor03Chauffage urbain04District heating04Investissement05Investment05Investitionen05Inversión05Impact économique06Economic impact06Impacto económico06Emploi07Employment07Croissance économique08Economic growth08Crecimiento económico08Modèle économétrique09Econometric model09Modelo econométrico09Simulation10Simulation10Court terme11Short term11Corto plazo11AutricheNG12AustriaNG12OesterreichNG12AustriaNG121996-2001INC79EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEuropaNG292 0733-947XJTPEDIJ. transp. eng.1245Simulation model for analyzing spudi with actuated signalsSHAFAHI (Y.)HAGHANI (A.)VIJAYAGOPALA GUPTA (K. N.)CARTER (E. C.)Dept. of Civ. Engrg., Univ. of MarylandCollege Park, MD 20742USA1 aut.4 aut.Dept. of Civ. Engrg., Univ. of MarylandCollege Park, MDUSA2 aut.SIMCO EngineeringNew York, NYUSA3 aut.419-4301998ENGINIST572E3540000728751000300000© 1998 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3 ref.98-0430045PAJournal of transportation engineeringUSAA time based microsimulation model is developed for analyzing the traffic operation at single point urban diamond interchanges (SPUDI). Features of the model include actuated signal operation, protected and permitted left turn phasing, right turn phasing with and without right turn on red, traffic in shared lanes, traffic in left turn and right turn storage lanes, car following, lane changing, gap acceptance behavior, primary and secondary queue formation and dissipation. The model accepts geometric, traffic, and signal data in an interactive mode. Input files may also be created separately without going through the interactive session. The model outputs include measures of effectiveness such as stopped delay, total delay, average speed, and maximum and average queue length. These measures of effectiveness are given for each turning movement, for each approach, and for the intersection as a whole. The model outputs also show the total green time and the total yellow and all red times assigned by the actuated system to each phase during the simulation time. The model results are compared with the actual data collected in the field.001D15C001D14O05295Route et rueP01Roads and streetsP01Echangeur routier02Interchanges02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Trafic routier04Road traffic04Tráfico carretera04Feu signalisation05Traffic lights05Semáforo05Géométrie06Geometry06File attente07Queueing theory07Validation08Validation08Validación08Zone urbaine09Urban area09Zona urbana09Résultat expérimental10Experimental result10Resultado experimental10285 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy266Impact of a nuclear phase-out in germany : results from a simulation model of the European Power SystemsHOSTER (F.)Institute of Energy Economics, University of Cologne, Albertus Magnus Platz50923 KölnDEU1 aut.507-5181998ENGINIST164173540000723735800700000© 1998 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.21 ref.98-0413437PAEnergy policyGBRIn the near future, the integrated electricity market will have a significant influence on national energy policies in Europe. Especially in the electricity sector national policies will have to take into account the increased international complexity. This article considers the case of a German nuclear phase-out in the context of the Internal Market for electricity in Europe. More specifically, it is assumed that German nuclear capacities will be completely dismantled by 2005. It is found that in the long term such a phase-out will only lead to a moderate increase in average generation costs, but will cause a substantial impact on the volume of carbon dioxide emission. Additionally, the costs of the nuclear phase-out are influenced by the degree of interregional competition allowed within Europe. In a competitive integrated market for electricity, the costs are significantly lower than in the current system with more or less closed regional electricity markets. These results were derived by simulations with EIREM, a large scale multi-period, multi-region linear programming model of the European power systems.001D06A01B001D06A01A230Politique énergétiqueP01Energy policyP01Production énergie électrique02Electric power generation02Energie nucléaire03Nuclear energy03Arrêt04Shutdown04Parada04Impact économique06Economic impact06Impacto económico06Coût production07Production cost07Herstellkosten07Coste producción07Pollution air08Air pollution08Emission polluant09Pollutant emission09Schadstoffemission09Emisión contaminante09Carbone dioxydeNKFX10Carbon dioxideNKFX10Investissement11Investment11Investitionen11Inversión11Capacité production12Production capacity12Capacidad producción12Importation13Import13Import13Importación13Répartition par source14Distribution by sources14Repartición por fuente14Prévision15Forecasting15Long terme16Long term16Largo plazo16Simulation17Simulation17Modèle économétrique18Econometric model18Modelo econométrico18Programmation linéaire19Linear programming19Allemagne20Germany20Modéle EIREMINC79278 1063-651XPLEEE8Phys. rev., E Stat. phys. plasmas fluids relat. interdiscip. topics581Generalized force model of traffic dynamicsHELBING (Dirk)TILCH (Benno)II. Institute of Theoretical Physics, University of Stuttgart, 70550 Stuttgart, Germany1 aut.2 aut.133-1381998-07ENGINIST144 E8100© 1998 American Institute of Physics. All rights reserved.98-0327516PAPhysical review. E, Statistical physics, plasmas, fluids, and related interdisciplinary topicsUSAFloating car data of car-following behavior in cities were compared to existing microsimulation models, after their parameters had been calibrated to the experimental data. With these parameter values, additional simulations have been carried out, e.g., of a moving car which approaches a stopped car. It turned out that, in order to manage such kinds of situations without producing accidents, improved traffic models are needed. Good results were obtained with the proposed generalized force model.001B00E70L001B00B70N001B30D10001D15A0570LPACINC0270NPACINC3410PACINC8940PACINCEtude théoriqueTheoretical studyTraficTrafficSimulation numériqueDigital simulationAccélérationAccelerationAccidentAccidents2159813M001521 0041-0683TENCA4Traffic eng. control394MUSIC : Putting the 'M' into UTMCVAN VUREN (T.)ROUTLEDGE (I.)SMITH (M.)Hague Consulting GroupNLD1 aut.Ian Routledge ConsultancyGBR2 aut.University of YorkGBR3 aut.222-229 [7 p.]1998ENGINIST137293540000760942400100000© 1998 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.11 ref.98-0299094PATraffic engineering & controlGBRMUSIC (Management of traffic USIng traffic flow Control and other measures), an EC-supported RTD project under DGVII's Fourth Framework Programme, will provide invaluable inputs into UTMC (urban traffic management and control). The project aims not only to provide new tools for developing traffic control strategies to support wide-ranging policy objectives, but also to provide a mechanism to assess the potential impacts of different policy options on-street. This paper sets out the principles of the MUSIC project, illustrates its implementation in state-of-the-art microsimulation-based software, presents initial simulation results and describes the planned demonstration in three cities : York in Great Britain, Porto in Portugal, and Thessaloniki in Greece.001D15CRégulation traficP01Traffic controlP01Gestion trafic02Traffic management02Gestión tráfico02Trafic routier urbain03Urban road traffic03Tráfico vial urbano03Evaluation projet04Project evaluation04Evaluación proyecto04Simulation05Simulation05Implémentation06Implementation06Ejecución06Etude cas07Case study07Estudio caso07Ville08Town08Ciudad08Grande BretagneNG09Great BritainNG09Gran BretañaNG09PortugalNG10PortugalNG10PortugalNG10PortugalNG10Grèce11Greece11Stratégie12Strategy12Estrategia12Ecoulement trafic13Traffic flow13Flujo tráfico13Résultat14Result14Resultado14Royaume UniNGUnited KingdomNGVereinigtes KoenigreichNGReino UnidoNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEuropaNG201 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy264Residential electricity use and the potential impacts of energy efficiency options in PakistanEISWERTH (M. E.)ABENDROTH (K. W.)CILIANO (R. E.)OUERGHI (A.)OZOG (M. T.)Hagler Bailly, Inc., 1881 9th Street, Suite 201Boulder, CO 80302USA1 aut.2 aut.Hagler Bailly, Inc., 1530 Wilson Blvd., Suite 900Arlington, VA, 22209USA3 aut.World Bank, 1818 H StreetN.W., Washington, DC 20433USA4 aut.Quantitative Research Group, 1712 Westchester LaneFort Collins, CO 80525USA5 aut.307-3151998ENGINIST164173540000761625400400000© 1998 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.4 ref.98-0292712PAEnergy policyGBRRising demands for electricity, stresses on generating systems, and concerns over environmental quality have led to increased interest in the potential benefits of energy efficiency options in a number of developing countries. In an effort to analyze electricity consumption patterns and the potential for conservation, the World Bank has managed the Pakistan Household Energy Strategy Study. One component of that study, the first of its kind in a developing country, has involved the collection of household metering and survey data to support the estimation of hourly demand regression equations and the development of energy efficiency simulation software. This manuscript summarizes the methods and results.001D06A01B001D06A01C4230Politique énergétiqueP01Energy policyP01Energie électrique02Electric energy02Elektrische Energie02Energía eléctrica02Consommation03Consumption03Verbrauch03Consumo03Secteur domestique04Residential sector04Sector doméstico04Modèle économétrique05Econometric model05Modelo econométrico05Conservation énergie06Energy conservation06Scénario07Script07Argumento07Gestion énergie08Energy management08Demande énergie09Energy demand09Demanda energía09Simulation10Simulation10PakistanNG11PakistanNG11PakistanNG11PakistanNG11AsieNGAsiaNGAsienNGAsiaNG195 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1607Generation of synthetic daily activity-travel patternsTransportation forecasting and travel behaviorKITAMURA (R.)CHEN (C.)PENDYALA (R. M.)Department of Civil Engineering Systems, Kyoto UniversitySakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-01JPN1 aut.Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California at DavisDavis, Calif. 95616USA2 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South FloridaTampa, Fla. 33620-5350NOR3 aut.National Research Council. Transportation Research BoardWashington, DC 20418USApatr.154-1621997ENGINIST10459B3540000751052302100000© 1998 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.29 ref.98-0291932PCATransportation research recordUSAMicrosimulation approaches to travel demand forecasting are gaining increased attention because of their ability to replicate the multitude of factors underlying individual travel behavior. The implementation of microsimulation approaches usually entails the generation of synthetic households and their associated activity-travel patterns to achieve forecasts with desired levels of accuracy. A sequential approach to generating synthetic daily individual activity-travel patterns was developed. The sequential approach decomposes the entire daily activity-travel pattern into various components, namely, activity type, activity duration, activity location, work location, and mode choice and transition. The sequential modeling approach offers practicality, provides a sound behavioral basis, and accurately represents an individual's activity-travel patterns. In the proposed system each component may be estimated as a multinomial logit model. Models are specified to reflect potential associations between individual activity-travel choices and such factors as time of day, socioeconomic characteristics, and history dependence. As an example results for activity type choice models estimated and validated with the 1990 Southern California Association of Governments travel diary data set are provided. The validation results indicate that the predicted pattern of activity choices conforms with observed choices by time of day. Thus, realistic daily activity-travel patterns, which are requisites for microsimulation approaches, can be generated for synthetic households in a practical manner.001D15BTransportsP01TransportationP01Modèle prévision02Forecast model02Modelo previsión02Simulation03Simulation03Voyage04Travel04Viaje04Ménage05Household05Familia05Demande transport06Transport demand06Demanda transporte06Analyse comportementale07Behavioral analysis07Análisis conductual07Vie quotidienne08Daily living08Vida cotidiana08Moyen transport09Transportation mode09Medio transporte09Formulation10Compounding (chemical)10Association11Association11Asociación11Choix12Choice12Elección12Activité13Activity13Actividad13Résultat14Result14Resultado14Validation15Validation15Validación15195TRB Annual Meeting76Washington, DC USA1997-01 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1607Travel demand forecasting using microsimulation : Initial results from case study in PennsylvaniaTransportation forecasting and travel behaviorCHUNG (J.-H.)GOULIAS (K. G.)Department of Urban Engineering, Chung-Ang UniversityAngsung-Kun, Kyungki-Do, 456-756KOR1 aut.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pennsylvania Transportation Institute, Pennsylvania State University. 201 Research Office BuildingUniversity Park, Pa. 16802USA2 aut.National Research Council. Transportation Research BoardWashington, DC 20418USApatr.24-301997ENGINIST10459B3540000751052300400000© 1998 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.17 ref.98-0291600PCECATransportation research recordUSAA new practical method for more accurately estimating traffic volumes in regional transportation networks by using demographic microsimulation is described. The method, called MIDAS-USA-Version I (MUVI), is combined with another method, access management impact simulation, which uses a geographic information system as a support tool, and can create detailed highway networks that can be used in regional models. Initial results from a case study in Centre County, Pennsylvania, are presented. The case study compares sociodemographic characteristics and the resulting traffic volumes on the regional transportation network with observed data and indicates the efficacy of the concept and the models used. This method is designed to be applied anywhere in the United States, because the basic input data are always available.001D15BTransportsP01TransportationP01Modèle prévision02Forecast model02Modelo previsión02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Etude cas04Case study04Estudio caso04PennsylvanieNG05PennsylvaniaNG05PensilvaniaNG05Transport régional06Regional transportation06Transporte regional06Charge trafic07Traffic load07Carga tráfico07Réseau routier08Highway systems08Système information géographique09Geographic information systems09Classification10Classification10Klassifizierung10Clasificación10Ménage11Household11Familia11Expérimentation12Experimentation12Experimentación12Validation13Validation13Validación13Demande transport14Transport demand14Demanda transporte14Etude comparative15Comparative study15Vergleich15Estudio comparativo15Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGVereinigte StaatenNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGNordamerikaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG195TRB Annual Meeting76Washington, DC USA1997-01 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1578Pedestrian impedance of turning-movement saturation flow rates : Comparison of simulation, analytical, and field observationsPedestrian and bicycle research 1997ROUPHAIL (N. M.)EADS (B. S.)Civil Engineering Department, CB 7908 North Carolina State UniversityRaleigh, N.C. 27695USA1 aut.University of Illinois, 509 E. Stoughton Street, Apt. 203Champaign, Ill. 61820USA2 aut.National Research Council. Transportation Research BoardWashington DCUSApatr.56-631997ENGINIST10459B3540000779503300800000© 1998 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.6 ref.98-0169213PCATransportation research recordUSATRAF-NETSIM and its successor CORSIM are comprehensive microsimulation environments that have been widely used to model the urban traffic environment in the United States and abroad. CORSIM is employed in this study to simulate and evaluate the effects of pedestrian flows on right-turn saturation flow rates at signalized intersections. The saturation flow rates returned by CORSIM were compared with field data collected throughout the United States and with three existing analytical models in the United States, Australia, and Canada. These comparisons indicated that CORSIM models pedestrian interference with the turning vehicles more severely than the three analytical methods, but with a smaller effect than the empirical data indicate. Further, the empirical data exhibit a logarithmic relationship between saturation flow rate and opposing pedestrian volume, compared with the linear relationship used in the simulation and analytical models. Implications for the design and analysis of signalized intersections are presented.001D15C001D14O05295TransportsP01TransportationP01Ecoulement trafic02Traffic flow02Flujo tráfico02Trafic piéton03Pedestrian traffic03Tráfico peatones03Zone urbaine04Urban area04Zona urbana04Impédance05Impedance05Impedancia05Etude comparative06Comparative study06Vergleich06Estudio comparativo06Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Intersection08Intersections08Etats Unis09United States09Australie10Australia10Canada11Canada11Expérimentation12Experimentation12Experimentación12Saturation13Saturation13Saturación13110Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board76Washington DC USA1997-01 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.841Tests for changes in models with a polynomial trendKUAN (C.-M.)Department of Economics, 21 Hsu-Chow Road, National Taiwan UniversityTaipei 10020TWN1 aut.75-911998ENGINIST164603540000780122900400000© 1998 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.22 ref.98-0108484PAJournal of econometricsNLDIn this paper, we propose a class of tests for changes in models with a polynomial trend, based on the 'generalized fluctuation' testing principle of Kuan and Hornik (1995). We derive the asymptotic null distributions of the proposed tests and tabulate their asymptotic critical values. We also show that these tests are consistent and have non-trivial local power against a wide class of alternatives. The simulation results suggest that the proposed tests can complement the existing tests in different time trend models.001A02H02H001A02H02F001A02H02NMéthode statistique01Statistical method01Método estadístico01Pont brownien02Brownian bridge02Puente browniano02Fluctuation03Fluctuations03Fluctuación03Modèle économétrique05Econometric model05Modelo econométrico05068 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1576Modeling the internalization of external costs of transportFinancial, economic, and social topics in transportationO'MAHONY (M. M.)KIRWAN (K. J.)MCGRATH (S.)University of Dublin, Department of Civil, Structural, and Environmental Engineering, Museum Building, Trinity CollegeDublinIRL1 aut.W. S. Atkins Planning Consultants, Ltd., Woodcote Grove, Ashley RoadEpsom, Surrey KT18 5BWGBR2 aut.Dublin Transportation Office, 69-71 Hainault Hause, St. Stephens GreenDublinIRL3 aut.National Research Council. Transportation Research BoardWashington, DC 20418USApatr.93-981997ENGINIST10459B3540000799206901200000© 1998 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.9 ref.98-0100773PCATransportation research recordUSAIncreases in traffic congestion and pollution levels in urban areas in Europe have resulted in the need to develop reliable and transferable methods of assessing the environmental and social effects of transport pricing and other regulatory policies. To achieve this, it is necessary to quantify the marginal social costs of transport as a function of travel demand and then to obtain the optimum marginal social cost by maximization of utility subject to budget constraints. The work conducted by Trinity College, Dublin, on a project (TRENEN) funded by the European Union JOULE II Non-Nuclear Energy Program is described. The project involved the development and calibration of an optimization model, the TRENEN model, based on welfare economics to address fundamental issues relating to the external costs of transport. The determination of the optimum function type used to represent the transport demand-delay relationship (which was obtained using an existing four-stage network model) for input to the TRENEN model is described. The TRENEN model is quite different from network modeling in that it is fundamentally macrolevel in its approach and works in an economic framework rather than at a traffic network level. Also discussed is a calibration of the TRENEN model for Dublin, the capital city of Ireland. Dublin currently experiences high levels of traffic congestion, particularly in the morning peak period, resulting from a heavy demand for car travel and the poor level of service associated with public transport. The possibility of using the TRENEN model, which addresses the issue of &dquot;social equilibrium&dquot; at a macrolevel, in conjunction with the more traditional &dquot;network equilibrium&dquot; approach used by traditional four-stage microsimulation modeling techniques, is discussed.001D15BTransportsP01TransportationP01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Internalisation03Internalization03Internalización03Coût04Costs04Congestion trafic05Traffic congestion05Congestión tráfico05Pollution06Pollution06Zone urbaine07Urban area07Zona urbana07Ecoulement trafic08Traffic flow08Flujo tráfico08Retard09Delay09Verzoegerung09Retraso09Etalonnage10Calibration10Irlande11Ireland11061TRB Annual Meeting76Washington, DC USA1997-01 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.831-2Heterogeneous information arrival and option pricingASEA (P. K.)NCUBE (M.)Department of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles & NBERLos Angeles CA 90024USA1 aut.Department of Accounting and Finance, London School of Economics & INVESTEC BankLondon WC2A 2AEGBR2 aut.291-3231998ENGengINIST164603540000776677800249000© 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.98-0100616PAJournal of econometricsNLDCopyright (c) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. We model the arrival of heterogeneous information in a financial market as a doubly stochastic Poisson process (DSPP). A DSPP is a member of the family of Poisson processes in which the mean value of the process itself is governed by a stochastic mechanism. We explore the implications for pricing stock, index and foreign currency options of the assumption that the underlying security evolves as a mixed diffusion DSPP. We derive an intertemporal CAPM and demonstrate that accounting for heterogeneous information arrival may minimize the ubiquitous pricing bias - 'smile effect' - of standard option pricing models. We propose a conceptually simple but numerically intensive maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters of a DSPP. A simulation study verifies the adequacy of the asymptotic approximations in finite samples. © 1998 Elsevier Science S.A.001A02H01A001A02H01H001A02H02NMarché financier01Financial market01Mercado financiero01Information marché02Market information02Información mercado02Modèle économétrique03Econometric model03Modelo econométrico03Processus stochastique05Stochastic process05Proceso estocástico05Processus Poisson06Poisson process06Proceso Poisson06Estimation biaisée07Biased estimation07Estimación sesgada07Maximum vraisemblance08Maximum likelihood08Maxima verosimilitud08Comportement asymptotique09Asymptotic behavior09Comportamiento asintótico09061 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.822Sources of asymmetry in production factor dynamicsPALM (F. C.)PFANN (G. A.)Department of Quantitative Economics, Maastricht University6200 MD MaastrichtNLD1 aut.Business Investment Research Center, Maastricht University6200 MD MaastrichtNLD2 aut.Centre for Economic Policy ResearchGBR2 aut.361-3921998ENGengINIST164603540000776678600149000© 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.98-0096663PAJournal of econometricsNLDCopyright (c) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. In this paper we investigate possible sources of aggregate cyclical asymmetry of production factor dynamics using a trivariate structural dynamic model of capital and labor demand and output. The two sources are: internal or behavioral asymmetry resulting from asymmetry in costs of adjusting factor inputs, and external non-linearity present in the process of real factor prices, being the model's forcing variables together with productivity shocks. In the empirical analysis behavioral asymmetry and external non-linearity are disentangled by estimation (GMM) and by simulation techniques. Simulated solutions of the model's nonlinear first order necessary conditions areobtained using an extended version of the parameterized expectations algorithm (PEA). Behavioral asymmetry accounts for about 50 percent of the curvature of adjustment costs and therefore contributes in an important way to the dynamics of production factors; external non-linearity on the contrary plays only a moderate role. © 1997 Elsevier Science S.A.001A02H02H001A02H02I001A02H02NMéthode statistique01Statistical method01Método estadístico01Simulation statistique02Statistical simulation02Simulación estadística02Non linéarité03Nonlinearity03No linealidad03Analyse comportementale04Behavioral analysis04Análisis conductual04Algorithme05Algorithm05Algorithmus05Algoritmo05Modèle économétrique06Econometric model06Modelo econométrico06Modèle dynamique07Dynamic model07Modelo dinámico07Facteur production08Production factor08Asymétrie09Asymmetry09Asymmetrie09Asimetría09Processus réelCD96Real processCD96061 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.822The influence of sample size on the degree of redundancy in spatial lag operatorsBLOMMESTEIN (H. J.)KOPER (N. A. M.)OECD, 2 rue André-Pascal75755 Paris Cedex 16FRA1 aut.University of Twente, P.O. Box 2177500 AE EnschedeNLDPhilips Semiconductors, P.O. Box 109500 AA StadskanaalNLD2 aut.317-3331998ENGengINIST164603540000776678600109000© 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.98-0096661PAJournal of econometricsNLDCopyright (c) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. This paper analyzes redundant paths in spatial lag operators. It is shown that the sample size and the order of spatial lag largely determine the occurrence rate of redundant paths in a spatial lag operator. A mathematical expression for the occurrence rate is derived. In a simulation study it is shown that the occurrence rate is a good measure for the severity of the error introduced in spatial models when one fails to eliminate redundant paths from the spatial lag operator. © 1997 Elsevier Science S.A.001A02H02I001A02H02NAnalyse donnée01Data analysis01Análisis datos01Structure donnée spatiale02Spatial data structures02Algorithme03Algorithm03Algorithmus03Algoritmo03Taille échantillon04Sample size04Tamaño muestra04Economie spatiale05Spatial economy05Economía espacial05Modèle économétrique06Econometric model06Modelo econométrico06061 0895-7177MCMOEGMath Comput Modell (Oxford)266Testing the validity of kinship microsimulationWACHTER (K. W.)BLACKWELL (D.)HAMMEL (E. A.)Univ of California, BerkeleyBerkeley CAUSA1 aut.89-1041997ENGINIST18808A10030 Refs.98-0064883PAMathematical and Computer Modelling (Oxford)GBRComputer microsimulation is capable of generating detailed reconstructions and forecasts of the numbers of living kin that members of a population have. The available detail, specificity, and consistency of vital rates for the past and the accuracy of vital rates projected for the future necessarily limit the accuracy of the kinship estimates that can be produced. This study is an external validity test of Reeves' 1982 reconstruction and forecast of U.S. kin counts with the SOCSIM microsimulation program. The external standard is provided by estimates from the 1987-88 wave of the National Survey of Families and Households, the first detailed information on numbers and ages of kin for the United States. We compare forecasts with estimates for average numbers of living grandchildren, living full-siblings, and living half-siblings as functions of age. We find remarkably close agreement for some of the predictions, along with several instances of systematic discrepancies. The discrepancies most likely stem from errors in the forecasts rather than in the survey estimates. Interacting rather than isolable errors appear to be responsible. Our validity tests provide a basis for qualified faith in the effectiveness of kinship microsimulation.001A02H02001A02H01001D02B12Kinship microsimulationINCThéorieTheoryProbabilitéProbabilitySimulation ordinateurComputer simulationStatistique populationPPopulation statisticsP040 0020-7136IJCNAWInt. j. cancer734Breast cancer screening in Navarra : Interpretation of a high detection rate at the first screening round and a low rate at the second roundVAN DEN AKKER-VAN MARLE (M. E.)REEP-VAN DEN BERGH (C. M. M.)BOER (R.)DEL MORAL (A.)ASCUNCE (N.)DE KONING (H. J.)Department of Public Health, Erasmus University RotterdamRotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.6 aut.Centro de Prevención de Cáncer de MamaPamplonaESP4 aut.5 aut.464-4691997ENGINIST130273540000796258300200000© 1998 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.26 ref.98-0038687PAInternational journal of cancerUSAOur objective was to evaluate the on-going European pilot project for breast cancer screening in Navarra, Spain, and to predict the effects and costs of the programme in the long run. Observed results in Navarra, consisting of more than 100,000 screens, were compared with expected results. A microsimulation screening analysis model was used that included demographical, epidemiological and screening characteristics of Navarra. Alternative assumptions on epidemiological and screening characteristics were also addressed. The observed detection rate (5.9 per 1,000 screened women) in the first round was 18% higher than expected; the observed rate in the subsequent round (2.9) was 17% lower than expected. Longer pre-clinical durations, lower sensitivity or the existence of a high-risk group in Navarra could not satisfactorily explain the first and second round results together. Nevertheless, the programme will have an important health benefit for the women involved, due to an important trend in incidence in recent years and the relatively unfavourable clinical stage distribution in Navarra. The proportion T2+ cancers that will be prevented after 10 years of screening amounts to 36%. The annual mortality reduction in steady state is expected to range between 17% (if the observed rates in the second round indicate real screening performance) to 23% (if the first round indicates real performance). Our results demonstrate that a high detection rate in the first round is insufficient to evaluate the quality of programme. Interval cancer rates, results of the subsequent round and size distributions are also crucial indicators of the quality of the screening programme and should be analysed in their specific context.002B20E02Tumeur maligne01Malignant tumor01Tumor maligno01Glande mammaire02Mammary gland02Glándula mamaria02Dépistage03Medical screening03Descubrimiento03EspagneNG04SpainNG04SpanienNG04EspañaNG04Programme sanitaire05Sanitary program05Programa sanitario05Homme06Human06Hombre06EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEuropaNGGlande mammaire pathologie37Mammary gland diseases37Glándula mamaria patología37Santé publique38Public health38Salud pública38019 0764-4493Solidar. santé, Etud. stat.1Les retraites et la protection sociale en EuropeLEQUET-SLAMA (D.)DANGERFIELD (O.)PRANGERE (D.)PELE (L.-P.)MONTIGNY (P.)SAUNIER (J.-M.)ABRAMOVICI (G.)VOLOVITCH (P.)DURIEZ (M.)LEQUET (D.)Ministère de l'Emploi et de la Solidarité, SESIFRA1 aut.2 aut.5 aut.6 aut.9 aut.INSEEFRA3 aut.INED, SESIFRA4 aut.Ministère de l'Emploi et de la Solidarité, MIREFRA7 aut.Ministère de l'Emploi et de la Solidarité, DGSFRA8 aut.1998FRE5-125INIST264653540000726032700100000© 1998 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.dissem.521-98-13781PMSolidarité santé. Etudes statistiquesFRAPensions and social protection in EuropeAprès avoir présenté l'état des retraites en 1997 en France, ce numéro étudie, par microsimulation, l'impact de la réforme de 1993 sur l'âge de départ à la retraite, puis les systèmes de retraite et les régimes de protection sociale européens. La place des transferts sociaux dans les revenus et niveaux de vie des ménages est envisagée pour les Pays-Bas, l'Espagne, le Royaume-Uni et la France. Les mouvements de privatisation et le rôle de la concurrence dans les systèmes de santé européens sont enfin examinés52164XVIEuropeNG01EuropeNG01Retraite02Retirement02Régime de retraite03Retirement Plan03Système de santé04Health system04Privatisation05Privatization05Réforme06Reform06Union européenneNG07European UnionNG07Redistribution des revenus08Income Redistribution08Niveau de vie09Standard of Living09Sécurité sociale10Social Security10Assurance vieillesse11Retirement benefit11Financement12Financing12Données statistiques13Statistical Data13Prestation familiale14Family benefit14Assurance chômage15Unemployment insurance15313 0759-1063BMS. Bull. méthodol. sociol.56Social science microsimulationGILBERT (G. N.)TROITZSCH (K. G.)University of Surrey at Guilford, Department of SociologyGuildford GU2 4XMHGBR1 aut.Institut für Sozialwissenschaftliche Informatik, Universität Koblenz-LandauKoblenzDEU2 aut.71-831997ENGfreINIST260653540000683205000400000© 1997 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3 ref.521-98-10087PABMS. Bulletin de méthologie sociologiqueFRAMicrosimulation en sciences sociales3 notesCi-dessous se trouvent trois articles basés sur des présentations et des discussions qui ont eu lieu au Séminaire de Dagatuhl sur la microsimulation en sciences sociales : &dquot;Une défi à l'informatique&dquot;, Schloss Dagstuhl, 1-5 mai 1995, et ont été publiés depuis dans K. G. Troitzsch. U. Mueller, G. N. Gilbert et J.E. Doran (sous la direction de), «Social Science Microsimulation», 1996, Springer Verlag. Les trois articles sont &dquot;Simulation comme une stratégie de recherche&dquot; et &dquot;Environnements et langages informatiques pour la simulation sociale : Resumé d'une discussion informelle&dquot;, par G. Nigel Gilbert, et &dquot;Simulation informatique et sciences sociales : Sur l'avenir d'une relation difficile - Résumé d'une discussion informelle&dquot; par Klaus G. Troitzsch5218IBibliographie01Bibliography01Simulation02Simulation02Microsociologie03Microsociology03Sciences sociales04Social sciences04Congrès05Congress05Informatique06Computer Science06AllemagneNG07GermanyNG07Recherche scientifique08Scientific Research08Méthodologie09Methodology09Modélisation10Modeling10Milieu social11Social Environment11MicrosimulationINC31Date 1-5 mai 1995INC32364 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.812Self-selection with measurement errors A microeconometric analysis of the decision to seek tax assistance and its implications for tax complianceERARD (B.)Department of Economics, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By DriveOttawa, Ont.CAN1 aut.319-3561997ENGengINIST164603540000684582100049000© 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.97-0545398PAJournal of econometricsNLDCopyright (c) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. A joint analysis of tax preparation mode and federal income tax noncompliance is performed using individual level audit data. To control for the nonrandom allocation of taxpayers to their chosen modes of tax preparation, an endogenous switching specification is employed. The framework is then extended to control for two separate forms of measurement error. First, although behavioral models of tax noncompliance typically account only for deliberate misreporting, audit-based measures of noncompliance include both deliberate and unintentional reporting violations. A statistical procedure is developed to distinguish between these two alternative sources of noncompliance. Second, auditors are not always successful in uncovering noncompliance when it is present. A detection controlled estimation procedure is employed to account for detection errors. © 1997 Elsevier Science S.A.001A02H02N001A02H02D001A02H02HErreur mesure01Measurement error01Messfehler01Error medida01Analyse microéconomique02Microeconomic analysis02Análisis microeconómico02Modèle comportement03Behavior model03Modelo comportamiento03Détection erreur04Error detection04Detección error04Modèle économétrique05Econometric model05Modelo econométrico05Estimation paramètre06Parameter estimation06Estimación parámetro06Simulation numérique07Numerical simulation07Simulación numérica07Préparation taxeINC75Evasion taxeINC76Description donnéeINC77Auto détectionCD96Self detectionCD96Procédure statistiqueCD97Statistical procedureCD97Procédure estimationCD98Estimation procedureCD98Sélection échantillonCD99Sample selectionCD99342 0144-5987EEEXDUEnergy explor. exploit.153Maximizing probable oil field profit : Uncertainties on well spacingMACKAY (J. A.)LERCHE (I.)Texaco, E&P Technology Division, P. O. Box 770070Houston, TX 77215USA1 aut.Department of Geological Sciences, University of South CarolinaColumbia, SC 29208USA2 aut.217-2381997ENGINIST196053540000684956700200000© 1997 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.3 ref.97-0531064PAEnergy exploration & exploitationGBRThe influence of uncertainties infield development costs, well costs, lifting costs, selling price, discount factor, and oil field reserves are evaluated for their impact on assessing probable ranges of uncertainty on present day worth PDW, oil field lifetime &tgr;_2/3, optimum number of wells OWI, and the minimum (n-) and maximum (n+) number of wells to produce a PDW ≥ 0. The relative importance of different factors in contributing to the uncertainties in PDW, &tgr;_2/3, OWI, n_- and n₊ is also analyzed. Numerical illustrations indicate how the maximum PDW depends on the ranges of parameter values, drawn from probability distributions using Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, the procedure illustrates the relative importance of contributions of individual factors to the total uncertainty, so that one can assess where to place effort to improve ranges of uncertainty; while the volatility of each estimate allows one to determine when such effort is needful.001D06A01C2B001D06A01A230Economie industrielleP01Industrial economicsP01Economie pétrolière02Oil economy02Economía petrolera02Exploitation03Exploitation03Explotación03Champ pétrole04Oil fields04Stratégie optimale05Optimal strategy05Estrategia optima05Incertitude06Uncertainty06Incertidumbre06Analyse coût07Cost analysis07Análisis costo07Optimisation économique08Economic optimization08Optimización económica08Rentabilité09Profitability09Rentabilidad09Modèle économétrique10Econometric model10Modelo econométrico10Simulation numérique11Numerical simulation11Simulación numérica11Méthode Monte Carlo12Monte Carlo methods12328 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy253Investigating strategies to reduce CO₂ emissions from the electricity sector : the case of GreeceModel-based policy analysisVASSOS (S.)VLACHOU (S.)BUNN (Derek W.)ed.LARSEN (Erik R.)ed.VLAHOS (Kiriakos)ed.Strategy and Planning Department, Public Power Corporation of GreeceAthensGRC1 aut.Department of Economics, Athens University of Economics and Business, 76, Patission StAthens 14434GRC2 aut.London Business SchoolLondonGBR1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.327-3361997ENGINIST164173540000691761200600000© 1997 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.32 ref.97-0504351PCAEnergy policyGBRThis paper investigates strategies to reduce CO₂ emissions from the electricity sector. In particular, it explores possibilities on the supply side and the significance of demand-side changes. It uses an economic engineering model for electricity generation capacity expansion which combines stochastic simulation for production-cost calculations and dynamic programming for selecting the optimum expansion plan. The model is used to investigate optimal strategies for stabilizing CO₂ emissions from the electricity sector in Greece; these accounted for 50% of CO₂ emissions produced in the country in 1990. It is also used to estimate the optimal tax required to achieve the optimal strategy for controlling CO₂ emissions to the desired level.001D06A01B230Politique énergétiqueP01Energy policyP01Protection02Protection02Environnement03Environment03Umgebung03Medio ambiente03Prévention pollution04Pollution prevention04Prevención polución04Pollution air05Air pollution05Carbone dioxydeNKFX06Carbon dioxideNKFX06Industrie électrique07Electric industry07Optimisation économique08Economic optimization08Optimización económica08Production énergie électrique09Electric power generation09Capacité production10Production capacity10Capacidad producción10Analyse coût11Cost analysis11Análisis costo11Programmation dynamique12Dynamic programming12Simulation stochastique13Stochastic simulation13Simulación estocástica13Modèle économétrique14Econometric model14Modelo econométrico14Grèce15Greece15307Symposium on Energy Models for Policy and PlanningLondon GBR1995-07 0301-4215ENPYACEnergy policy253Emission reduction strategies for Central and Eastern EuropeModel-based policy analysisLUETH (O.)JATTKE (A.)SCHOETTLE (H.)WIETSCHEL (M.)RENTZ (O.)BUNN (Derek W.)ed.LARSEN (Erik R.)ed.VLAHOS (Kiriakos)ed.Institute for Industrial Production (IIP), University of Karlsruhe, Hertzstr. 1676187, KarlsruheDEU1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.5 aut.London Business SchoolLondonGBR1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.305-3121997ENGINIST164173540000691761200400000© 1997 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.22 ref.97-0503915PCAEnergy policyGBRInternational agreements and national policy aiming at emission reduction require information on the current situation as well as recommendations on how to avoid harmful environmental effects in a cost-effective way. Energy-environment models, such as the LP-model EFOM-ENV, can be used (1) to analyze the influences of structural changes and energy saving measures (2) to study the effects of strategies aiming at a simultaneous reduction of multiple pollutants and (3) to develop emission and deposition reduction strategies. Selected results of EFOM-ENV applications in several Central and Eastern European countries are presented here. They show a high potential for fuel and technology switching as well as for energy saving measures in these countries. This leads to emission reduction costs which are significantly lower than in Western European countries.001D06A01B001D06A01A230Politique énergétiqueP01Energy policyP01Prévention pollution02Pollution prevention02Prevención polución02Pollution air03Air pollution03Protection04Protection04Environnement05Environment05Umgebung05Medio ambiente05Méthodologie06Methodology06Metodología06Modèle économétrique07Econometric model07Modelo econométrico07Stratégie08Strategy08Estrategia08Scénario09Script09Argumento09Simulation10Simulation10Consommation énergie11Energy consumption11Energieverbrauch11Consumo energía11Répartition par source12Distribution by sources12Repartición por fuente12Emission polluant13Pollutant emission13Schadstoffemission13Emisión contaminante13UkraineNG14UkraineNG14UkraniaNG14Pologne15Poland15SlovaquieNG16SlovakiaNG16EslovaquiaNG16République tchèqueNG17Czech RepublicNG17República checaNG17Moyen terme18Medium term18Término medio18Europe EstNGEastern EuropeNGOsteuropaNGEuropa del EsteNGEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEuropaNG307Symposium on Energy Models for Policy and PlanningLondon GBR1995-07 1360-4015J. Chart. Inst. Water Environ. Manag.113Estimating small area demand for water: A new methodologyCLARKE (G. P.)KASHTI (A.)MCDONALD (A.)WILLIAMSON (P.)School of Geography, University of LeedsGBR1 aut.2 aut.As above and the Leeds Environment CentreGBR3 aut.Department of Geography, University of LiverpoolGBR4 aut.186-1921997ENGINIST10423540000672235000500000© 1997 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.39 ref.97-0468190PAJournal of the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental ManagementGBRThe estimation of water demand is fundamental to effective water resource management. Water supply is measured at district level but true demand is not, and therefore studies of water-pricing relations are limited and mass-balance based assessment of leakage, illegal use, meter inaccuracies, etc., are compromised. This paper describes the value and limitations of existing geodemographic methods, and an alternative technique widely used in other fields, microsimulation, is proposed. It is shown that geographic stability in demand relations is not found in all consumer commodities and cannot be assumed for water. Sampled data for Leeds, West Yorkshire, are used to construct a microsimulation model, and the results of that model are applied to the city of Leeds at ward level. Applicability. is also demonstrated at enumeration district level.001D16A01Gestion ressource eau01Water resource management01Gestión recurso agua01Approvisionnement eau02Water supply02Alimentación agua02Demande03Demand03Petición03Simulation04Simulation04Simulation04Simulación04286 0098-7484JAMA j. Am. Med. Assoc.2786Federalism and health system reform : Prospects for state actionMARQUIS (M. S.)LONG (S. H.)RANDWashington, DCUSA1 aut.2 aut.514-5171997ENGINIST50513540000681615201300000© 1997 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.20 ref.97-0433155PAJAMA, the journal of the American Medical AssociationUSAObjective.-To assess the prospect that the states, acting independently, would undertake health insurance coverage expansions that together would result in meaningful reductions in the extent of uninsurance nationally. Design.-We use microsimulation methods to contrast the federal income tax payments needed to finance a national program covering the uninsured with the state income tax payments needed to finance a state-specific program for the same purpose. The contrast reveals the effects on the tax burdens of differences among states in uninsured rates and tax capacity. Setting.-Continental United States. Patients or Other Participants.-Observations from the 1990 through 1993 Current Population Survey (N=305 477 families), weighted to represent the population of each state. Intervention.-Illustrative public health insurance program for families with incomes below 250% of poverty, not covered by current public or employer-sponsored health insurance. Main Outcome Measures.-Change in percent uninsured, change in per capita total tax payments. Results.-The per capita cost of a state-specific program is directly related to current uninsured rates, $130 in states with low uninsured rates (10%) to $230 in states with high uninsured rates (21%). This would represent increases in state total tax effort of 10% to 19%, respectively. In contrast, equal tax effort to finance a national program would imply per capita yields of about $200 in the low-uninsured states and about $150 in the high-uninsured states. Conclusions.-Substantial state tax effort would be necessary to cover the low-income uninsured-especially in states with the highest uninsured rates, which also have the lowest tax capacity. Targeted federal financial assistance may be necessary, if policymakers wish to induce many states to provide health insurance coverage for their uninsured.002B30A01BSystème santé01Health system01Sistema salud01Protection sociale04Welfare aids04Protección social04Financement07Financing07Finanzierung07Financiación07Santé publique16Public health16Salud pública16Evolution17Evolution17Evolución17Homme20Human20Hombre20Etats UnisNG23United StatesNG23Vereinigte StaatenNG23Estados UnidosNG23Economie santé24Health economy24Economía salud24Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGNordamerikaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG265 0302-97431215Large scale traffic simulationsVECPAR '96 : vector and parallel processing : Porto, September 25-27, 1996NAGEL (K.)RICKERT (M.)BARRETT (C. L.)PALMA (José MLM.)ed.DONGARRA (Jack)ed.Los Alamos National Laboratory, TSA-DO/SA MS M997Los Alamos NM 87545ESP1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park RdSanta Fe NM 87501ESP1 aut.3 aut.Zentrum für Paralleles Rechnen ZPR, Universität zu Köln50923 KölnESP2 aut.380-4021997ENGINIST163433540000625235802300000© 1997 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.56 ref.97-0390433PCALecture notes in computer scienceDEUUSALarge scale microscopic (i.e. vehicle-based) traffic simulations pose high demands on computational speed in at least two application areas: (i) real-time traffic forecasting, and (ii) long-term planning applications (where repeated &dquot;looping&dquot; between the microsimulation and the simulated planning of individual person's behavior is necessary). As a rough number, a real-time simulation of an area such as Los Angeles (ca. 1 million travellers) will need a computational speed of much higher than 1 million &dquot;particle&dquot; (= vehicle) updates per second. This paper reviews how this problem is approached in different projects and how these approaches are dependent both on the specific questions and on the prospective user community. The approaches reach from highly parallel and vectorizable, single-bit implementations on parallel supercomputers for Statistical Physics questions, via more realistic implementations on coupled workstations, to more complicated driving dynamics implemented again on parallel supercomputers.001D02B08001D15CSimulation01Simulation01Simulation01Simulación01Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02237International conference on vector and parallel processing2Porto PRT1996-09-25 0304-4076JECMB6J. econom.792Job search theory, labour supply and unemployment durationBLOEMEN (H. G.)Center for Economic Research, Tilburg University, P.O. BOX 901535000 LE TilburgNLD1 aut.305-3251997ENGengINIST164603540000618856000129000© 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.97-0368384PCAJournal of econometricsNLDCopyright (c) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. This paper presents a structural model of sequential job search, in which the individual decision makers incorporate labour supply in the job acceptance decision. The model satisfies the reservation wage property. Given the level of the offered wage rate, individuals can choose the number of weekly working hours optimally, by maximizing utility subject to the budget constraint. Specific attention is paid to the stochastic specification. The utility function contains an unobserved random component, and the job offer arrival rate contains unobserved heterogeneity. The search model is used to construct a stationary model of unemployment duration. In estimating the model, simulation methods are used to integrate out unobserved heterogeneity. The goodness of fit of the model is examined by analysis of the residuals.001A02H02NFonction utilité01Utility function01Función utilidad01Fonction aléatoire02Random function02Función aleatoria02Modèle simulation03Simulation model03Modelo simulación03Statistiques main œuvre04Labour statistics04Arbeitskraeftestatistik04Estadísticas mano de obra04Modèle économétrique05Econometric model05Modelo econométrico05216Duration 0140-9883EECODREnergy econ.191Economic growth, international competitiveness and environmental protection : R & D and innovation strategies with the WARM modelEnergy-environmental modellingCARRARO (C.)GALEOTTI (M.)BUNN (Derek W.)ed.LARSEN (Erik)ed.VLAHOS (Kirikos)ed.Department of Economics, University of Venice, Ca'Foscari30123 VeniceITA1 aut.FEEM, Corso Magenta 6320123 MilanITA1 aut.2 aut.University of Bergamo, Piazza Rosate 224129 BergamoITA2 aut.London Business SchoolLondonGBRpatr.International Federation of Operational Research SocietiesLyngbyDNKpatr.2-281997ENGINIST182313540000616748100100000© 1997 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.2 p.1/497-0366360PCAEnergy economicsGBRIt is often argued that policies designed to protect the environment may harm economic growth. Moreover, if introduced unilaterally by a given country, they may reduce the competitiveness of domestic firms. These arguments are generally based on the assumption that environmental protection has to be achieved through the introduction of emission charges (e.g. a carbon tax). However, three issues need to be raised: first, the tax is not the only policy instrument-and is not the most efficient one-that can be used to reduce polluting emissions; secondly, even when a tax policy is implemented, it is important to assess the feedback effects induced by recycling the tax revenue; thirdly, and most importantly, the role of technical progress cannot be neglected. Therefore, there may exist a policy mix that provides firms with the correct incentives to adopt energy-saving technologies and to invest in environment-friendly R & D. The first two issues have partly been explored both in the theoretical and empirical literature. The third issue, i.e. the role of incentives to technical progress, still lacks adequate quantitative assessment. This is why a new model has been developed which endogenizes technical progress and its effects and feedbacks on economic, energy and environmental variables. Using WARM, an econometric general equilibrium model for the European Union and for each member country, this paper presents simulation results up to 2015 of the effects of some industrial-environmental policies which are aimed at protecting the environment without necessarily damaging competitiveness and economic growth. The results show that policies that stimulate environmental R & D, technological innovation and diffusion may provide firms with the correct incentives to avoid damaging the environment, while preserving their competitiveness in the market. Moreover, such a policy, based both on R&D subsidies and on innovation incentives, may not worsen the public-sector budget balance, as a result of the positive effects on economic growth.001D06A01A001D06A01B230Politique énergétique01Energy policy01Política energética01Protection environnement02Environmental protection02Umweltschutz02Protección medio ambiente02Développement durable03Sustainable development03Desarrollo durable03Politique fiscale04Fiscal policy04Política fiscal04Innovation05Innovation05Inovación05Gestion ressources06Resource management06Gestión recursos06Gestion énergie07Energy management07Gestión energía07Prévention pollution08Pollution prevention08Prevención polución08Croissance économique09Economic growth09Crecimiento económico09Modèle économétrique10Econometric model10Modelo econométrico10Economie énergie11Energy economy11Economía energía11Politique environnement12Environmental policy12Política medio ambiente12Conservation énergie13Energy conservation13Conservación energética13Union européenne14European Union14Unión Europea142161995 LBS/IFORS Joint International Symposium on Energy Models for Policy and PlanningLondon GBR1995-07-18 0140-9883EECODREnergy econ.191Are environmental taxes a free lunch : Issues in modelling the macroeconomic effects of carbon taxesEnergy-environmental modellingMABEY (N.)NIXON (J.)BUNN (Derek W.)ed.LARSEN (Erik)ed.VLAHOS (Kirikos)ed.London Business School, Sussex PlaceRegent's Park, London NW3 4LLGBR1 aut.2 aut.London Business SchoolLondonGBRpatr.International Federation of Operational Research SocietiesLyngbyDNKpatr.29-561997ENGINIST182313540000616748100200000© 1997 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.25 ref.97-0366197PCAEnergy economicsGBRApplied analysis of output and employment effects from revenue neutral environmental taxation depends critically on how the supply side of the economy is modelled. Despite the long history of theoretical and computable general equilibrium, supply-side models, the empirical basis of much of this work has been quite weak until recently. However, most econometric attempts to capture factor substitution effects have not been based on theoretically consistent structures. This paper examines the methodological issues that underlie these problems and compares the results of imposing environmental taxes in two different econometric modelling structures. The implications of theories of endogenous technical progress on the simulation properties of such models are discussed, and a simple empirically based model that embodies some of these features is presented.001D06A01B001D06A01A230Politique énergétique01Energy policy01Política energética01Taxation02Taxation02Tasación02Prévention pollution03Pollution prevention03Prevención polución03Protection environnement04Environmental protection04Umweltschutz04Protección medio ambiente04Modèle macroéconomique05Macroeconomic model05Modelo macroeconómico05Modèle économétrique06Econometric model06Modelo econométrico06Consommation combustible07Fuel consumption07Brennstoffverbrauch07Consumo combustible07Méthodologie08Methodology08Metodología082161995 LBS/IFORS Joint International Symposium on Energy Models for Policy and PlanningLondon GBR1995-07-18 0143-005XJ. epidemiol. community health : (1979)512Quantitative estimates of the impact of sensitivity and specificity in mammographic screening in GermanyWARMERDAM (P. G.)DE KONING (H. J.)BOER (R.)BEEMSTERBOER (P. M. M.)DIERKS (M.-L.)SWART (E.)ROBRA (B.-P.)Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Rotterdam, PO Box 17383000 DR, RotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.Abteilung Epidemiologie und Sozialmedizin, Medizinische Hochschule HannoverDEU5 aut.Institut für Sozialmedizin, Otto-von-Guericke UniversitätMagdeburgDEU6 aut.7 aut.180-1861997ENGINIST92723540000656918101500000© 1997 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.27 ref.97-0312515PAJournal of epidemiology and community health : (1979)GBRStudy objective - To estimate quantitatively the impact of the quality of mammographic screening (in terms of sensitivity and specificity) on the effects and costs of nationwide breast cancer screening. Design - Three plausible &dquot;quality&dquot; scenarios for a biennial breast cancer screening programme for women aged 50-69 in Germany were analysed in terms of costs and effects using the Microsimulation Screening Analysis model on breast cancer screening and the natural history of breast cancer. Firstly, sensitivity and specificity in the expected situation (or &dquot;baseline&dquot; scenario) were estimated from a model based analysis of empirical data from 35 000 screening examinations in two German pilot projects. In the second &dquot;high quality&dquot; scenario, these properties were based on the more favourable diagnostic results from breast cancer screening projects and the nationwide programme in The Netherlands. Thirdly, a worst case, &dquot;low quality&dquot; hypothetical scenario with a 25% lower sensitivity than that experienced in The Netherlands was analysed. Setting - The epidemiological and social situation in Germany in relation to mass screening for breast cancer. Results - In the &dquot;baseline&dquot; scenario, an 11% reduction in breast cancer mortality was expected in the total German female population, ie 2100 breast cancer deaths would be prevented per year. It was estimated that the &dquot;high quality&dquot; scenario, based on Dutch experience, would lead to the prevention of an additional 200 deaths per year and would also cut the number of false positive biopsy results by half. The cost per life year gained varied from Deutsche mark (DM) 15 000 in the &dquot;high quality&dquot; scenario to DM 21 000 in the &dquot;low quality&dquot; setting. Conclusions - Up to 20% of the total costs of a screening programme can be spent on quality improvement in order to achieve a substantially higher reduction in mortality and reduce undesirable side effects while retaining the same cost effectiveness ratio as that estimated from the German data.002B30A01CMammographie01Mammography01Mastografía01Dépistage04Medical screening04Descubrimiento04Tumeur maligne07Malignant tumor07Tumor maligno07Glande mammaire08Mammary gland08Glándula mamaria08Assurance qualité10Quality assurance10Guetesicherung10Aseguración calidad10Evaluation11Evaluation11Auswertung11Evaluación11Programme sanitaire13Sanitary program13Programa sanitario13Prévention14Prevention14Prevención14Analyse coût efficacité16Cost efficiency analysis16Análisis costo eficacia16Femme17Woman17Mujer17AllemagneNG18GermanyNG18AlemaniaNG18Santé publique19Public health19Salud pública19Simulation ordinateur20Computer simulation20Elektronenrechnersimulation20Simulación computadora20HommeHumanHombreEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEuropaNGRadiodiagnostic37Radiodiagnosis37Radiodiagnóstico37Glande mammaire pathologie53Mammary gland diseases53Glándula mamaria patología53181 0140-9883EECODREnergy econ.184A regional linear logit fuel demand model for electric utilitiesMOODY (C. E.)Department of Economics, College of William and MaryWilliamsburg, VA 23187-8795USA1 aut.295-3141996ENGINIST182313540000613535500300000© 1997 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.10 ref.97-0144126PAEnergy economicsGBRWe investigate a short-term forecasting and simulation model of utility fuel demand based on the linear logit model. The forecasting properties of the model are surprisingly good for such a simple econometric model of factor demand. The model ignores the distinctive characteristics of electric utilities (load curves, wheeling, etc.) yet produces remarkably good forecasts at both the national and regional levels. Because the model is based on neoclassical theory it can be used for simulations, making it more useful, and less ad hoc, than a pure forecasting model.001D06A01A230Centrale électrique01Electric power plant01Central eléctrica01Demande02Demand02Petición02Combustible fossile03Fossil fuel03Combustible fósil03Prévision04Forecasting04Prognose04Previsión04Court terme05Short term05Corto plazo05Modèle économétrique06Econometric model06Modelo econométrico06Simulation07Simulation07Simulation07Simulación07Méthodologie08Methodology08Metodología08Vérification expérimentale09Experimental test09Verificación experimental09Etats UnisNG10United StatesNG10Vereinigte StaatenNG10Estados UnidosNG10Modèle VARINC72Modèle LogitINC73Modèle TranslogINC74Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGNordamerikaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG062 0002-9637AJTHABAm. j. trop. med. hyg.555SUPSchistosim : A microsimulation model for the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasisDE VLAS (S. J.)VAN OORTMARSSEN (G. J.)GRYSEELS (B.)POLDERMAN (A. M.)PLAISIER (A. P.)HABBEMA (J. D. F.)BERGQUIST (N. R.)ed.GRYSEELS (B.)ed.GUYATT (H.)ed.Centre for Decision Sciences in Tropical Disease Control, Department of Public Health, Erasmus University RotterdamRotterdamNLDDepartment of Parasitology and Tropical Medicine, University of LeidenLeidenNLDTDR Programme, World Health Organization1211 GenevaCHE1 aut.Prince Leopold Institute of Tropical Medicine2000 AntwerpBEL2 aut.Centre for the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, University of OxfordOxford OX1 3PSGBR3 aut.United Nations Development Programme/World Bank/World Health Organization. Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical DiseaseGenevaCHEpatr.170-1751996ENGINIST68173540000608586501100000© 1997 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.16 ref.97-0064555PCAThe American journal of tropical medicine and hygieneUSAA computer simulation model, SCHISTOSIM, has been developed for the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis, based on the stochastic microsimulation technique. The eventual aim is to evaluate and predict the effects of different control strategies. In the current state of the model, human-, worm-, and infection-related aspects have been included. However, many others, including most transmission and transmission-related mechanisms, have yet to be modeled. By simulating a series of surveys and treatments in Burundi, short-term effects of this program were satisfactorily explained by the model. However, long-term predictions did not match the observed data. Possible extensions of the model to properly describe these effects are identified. The potential of SCHISTOSIM as a tool for the prediction of outcomes of alternative control strategies is illustrated and discussed.002B05E03C1235Schistosomiase01Schistosomiasis01Esquistosomiasis01Epidémiologie02Epidemiology02Epidemiología02Lutte sanitaire03Sanitary control03Lucha sanitaria03Modèle simulation04Simulation model04Modelo simulación04Transmission06Transmission06Transmission06Transmisión06Morbidité07Morbidity07Morbilidad07Homme08Human08Hombre08SCHISTOSIMINC86TrématodoseTrematode diseaseTrematodosisHelminthiaseHelminthiasisHelmintiasisParasitoseParasitosisParasitosisInfectionInfectionInfección034Symposium on Epidemiology Modeling in Schistosomiasis ControlGeneva CHE1992-08 0002-9637AJTHABAm. j. trop. med. hyg.555SUPThe microsimulation approach to epidemiologic modeling of helminthic infections, with special reference to schistosomiasisHABBEMA (J. D. F.)DE VLAS (S. J.)PLAISIER (A. P.)VAN OORTMARSSEN (G. J.)BERGQUIST (N. R.)ed.GRYSEELS (B.)ed.GUYATT (H.)ed.Centre for Decision Sciences in Tropical Disease Control, Department of Public Health, Erasmus University RotterdamRotterdamNLD1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.TDR Programme, World Health Organization1211 GenevaCHE1 aut.Prince Leopold Institute of Tropical Medicine2000 AntwerpBEL2 aut.Centre for the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, University of OxfordOxford OX1 3PSGBR3 aut.United Nations Development Programme/World Bank/World Health Organization. Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical DiseaseGenevaCHEpatr.165-1691996ENGINIST68173540000608586501000000© 1997 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.13 ref.97-0064554PCAThe American journal of tropical medicine and hygieneUSAThe microsimulation technique has been used since 1985 as a tool for epidemiologic modeling of helminthic infections. This technique is characterized by mimicking individual life histories, which makes it possible to include several relevant processes and mechanisms that have not so far been considered in applied modeling. Biological, epidemiologic, and social processes can be simulated in detail, which allows realistic prediction of the impact of control strategies. It is clear that careful quantification and validation of the many processes and parameters in the model requires close collaboration with experts working on control projects. In the development and application of a microsimulation model, we distinguish eight steps, ranging from the identification of questions the model will be designed to address, to the completion of a model that can be used as a routine decision-making tool in a control program.002B05E03C1235Schistosomiase01Schistosomiasis01Esquistosomiasis01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Epidémiologie03Epidemiology03Epidemiología03Homme05Human05Hombre05TrématodoseTrematode diseaseTrematodosisHelminthiaseHelminthiasisHelmintiasisParasitoseParasitosisParasitosisInfectionInfectionInfección034Symposium on Epidemiology Modeling in Schistosomiasis ControlGeneva CHE1992-08 382The cost-effectiveness of mammography screening : evidence from a microsimulation model for New ZelandSZETO (K.L.)DEVLIN (N.J.)101-1156 tabl.1996-11ENGBDSP/CREDES880039 ref.97-0059963PAHEALTH POLICYNLDAnalyse coût efficacité de la mammographie : résultats obtenus à partir d'un modèle de microsimulation en Nouvelle ZélandeLa mammographie est un des rares moyens de faire baisser le taux de mortalité par cancer. La Nouvelle-Zélande a mis au point un programme national de dépistage dans deux régions (Otago/Southland and Waikato) en 1991. Cet article essaie d'évaluer le gain économique obtenu suite à ce programme002B30A11Analyse coût efficacitéCost efficiency analysisAnálisis costo eficaciaMammographieMammographyMastografíaModèleModelsModelo034 0928-7655Resour. energy econ.183Fuel, crop, and water substitution in irrigated agricultureEDWARDS (B. K.)HOWITT (R. E.)FLAIM (S. J.)The Law and Economics Consulting Group, Inc., One Rotary Center, 1560 Sherman Avenue, Suite 1260EvanstonUSA1 aut.Department of Agricultural Economics, University of California at DavisDavisUSA2 aut.International Energy Agency, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2 rue André-Pascal75775 Paris Cedex 16FRA3 aut.311-3311996ENGengINIST178353540000607202000109000© 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.97-0040016PAResource and energy economicsNLDCopyright (c) 1996 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. This paper examines how changes in electricity costs can alter input use in farming and the resulting composition of output. The agricultural sectors of two states, Arizona and Colorado, are modeled using nonlinear optimization methods to estimate responses to changing relative fuel costs. Simulation results suggest that farmers respond systematically to increases in electricity costs, and do so in ways that involve three areas of change: (1&rpar; the substitution between water and other inputs; (2&rpar; the crop allocation on irrigated land; and (3&rpar; changes in the total irrigated area. For both states, higher electricity prices lead to reductions in water use, with most of these reductions accounted for by reductions in electrically pumped groundwater use, with own-price own-price elasticities on the order of −0.64 and −0.68 for Arizona and Colorado, respectively, a result comparable to estimates obtained econometrically elsewhere. The results also confirm complementarity between energy and irrigated land and substitutability between energy and dryland acreage.002A32C01B2002A32C03B230Assolement01Crop shift01Sucesión cultivo01Coût énergie02Energy cost02Energiekosten02Coste energía02Echelon régional03Regional scope03Escalafón regional03Energie électrique04Electric energy04Elektrische Energie04Energía eléctrica04Irrigation05Irrigation05Irrigación05Modèle économétrique06Econometric model06Modelo econométrico06Production végétale07Plant production07Produccíon vegetal07Simulation numérique08Numerical simulation08Simulación numérica08Substitution09Substitution09Substitution09Substitución09Plante cultivée10Cultivated plant10Planta cultivada10Carburant15Motor fuel15Carburante15Eau16Water16Wasser16Agua16Intrant agricole17Farm input17Insumo agrícola17ArizonaNG20ArizonaNG20ArizonaNG20ColoradoNG21ColoradoNG21ColoradoNG21Analyse entrée sortie27Input output analysis27Análisis entrada salida27Etude économique28Economic study28Wirtschaftlichkeit28Estudio económico28Etude régionale29Regional study29Estudio regional29Etude sur modèle30Model study30Modellversuch30Estudio sobre modelo30CULTURE IRRIGUEEAGRCD98IRRIGATED FARMINGAGRCD98AGRICULTURA DE REGADIOAGRCD98Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGVereinigte StaatenNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGNordamerikaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNGEconomie agricole33Agricultural economics33Economía agricola33Economie énergie34Energy economy34Economía energía34Modélisation36Modeling36Modelización36Système agraire37Agricultural system37Sistema agrario37Système production38Production system38Sistema producción38020 0201-73854Ekonomiko-geografičeskie aspekty modelirovaniâ tekstil'nyh centrov BolgariiPOPOVA (N.T.)KHANIN (S.E.)31-371 tabl.1995RUSengINIST2500182004 ref.531-97-11006PAVestnik Moskovskogo universiteta, Ser. V, GeografiâRUSAspects économico-géographiques de la modélisation des centres textiles en BulgarieLes AA. étudient les problèmes de modélisation économétrique et de simulation des centres de l'industrie textile en Bulgarie pour tester les scénarios effectifs du développement d'un peuplement semblable dans le cas du passage de la Russie et de la Bulgarie à l'économie de marché531313VI531Modèle économétrique56301Econometric model56301Industrie textile56302Textile industry56302Industrie56303Industry56303Méthodologie56304Methodology56304BulgarieNG22BulgariaNG22U103!02,01!22U104!01,02!22U222!01!02048 1149-1590Rech. previs. : (Paris)48Microsimulation et évaluation de la politique familiale : quelques premiers résultatsEvaluations des politiques familiales : nouvelles méthodes, premiers résultatsBLANCHET (D.)KLEIN (A.)MATH (Antoine)introd.INEDFRA1 aut.2 aut.INSEE, division redistribution et politiques socialesFRA1 aut.2 aut.Caisse Nationale des Allocations Familiales CNAF, Bureau de la Recherche, 23 rue Daviel75634 ParisFRA1 aut.55-641997FREINIST229183540000675228200400000© 1997 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.4 ref.521-97-14135PARecherches et prévisions : (Paris)FRAMicrosimulation and family policy evaluation : some first resultsFamily policies evaluation : new methods, first results9 notesEvaluer l'effet démographique de la politique familiale, c'est évaluer la proportion de ménages - en général minoritaires - qui sont susceptibles de modifier leurs comportements démographiques en réponse à la mise en place ou à la révision de cette politique. Ceci implique une modélisation de ces comportements. Ceci implique aussi une approche désagrégée, seule capable de rendre compte de l'hétérogénéité des comportements au sein de la population. Cet article propose une analyse de ce type, qui consiste en une microsimulation du processus de formation des familles, intégrant l'interaction entre ce processus, l'évolution du niveau de vie individuel et les comportements d'activité. Quelques conclusions en sont tirées quant à l'impact prospectif de différents scénarios d'évolution de la politique familiale, aussi bien du point de vue démographique ou d'activité que du point de vue des effets redistributifs52129AVIIIPolitique familiale01Family Policy01Evaluation02Evaluation02Redistribution03Redistribution03Modélisation04Modeling04Facteur démographique05Demographic factor05Comportement démographique06Demographic behaviour06Taille de la famille07Family Size07Modèle de comportement08Behavior pattern08Simulation09Simulation09Niveau de vie10Standard of Living10Revenu11Income11Prospective12Outlook12Données statistiques13Statistical Data13Taux d'activité14Activity rate14Taux de fécondité15Fertility Rate15Méthodologie16Methodology16MicrosimulationINC31279 1149-1590Rech. previs. : (Paris)48L'analyse des dimensions redistributives des politiques familiales : Des méthodes et des résultats différents qui stimulent la curiositéEvaluations des politiques familiales : nouvelles méthodes, premiers résultatsJEANDIDIER (B.)MATH (Antoine)introd.ADEPS - CNRS et Université Nancy 2FRA1 aut.Caisse Nationale des Allocations Familiales CNAF, Bureau de la Recherche, 23 rue Daviel75634 ParisFRA1 aut.5-261997FREINIST229183540000675228200100000© 1997 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.521-97-14133PARecherches et prévisions : (Paris)FRAAnalysis of redistributive dimensions of family policies : different methods and results stimulating curiosityFamily policies evaluation : new methods, first results1/4 p. ref. et notesL'analyse du ciblage des politiques de prestations familiales dans une perspective de comparaison internationale peut s'appuyer sur différentes méthodologies. La première partie de cet article présente cinq méthodes : l'analyse des barèmes et conditions d'éligibilité aux prestations, l'analyse des statistiques globales de nombre de bénéficiaires et de masses financières, l'analyse par familles types, l'analyse de données d'enquête, l'analyse par microsimulations. Cette présentation est accompagnée d'une illustration portant sur le ciblage en direction des familles monoparentales. La seconde partie montre en quoi ces cinq méthodes, qui sont pour partie complémentaires et pour partie alternatives, peuvent parfois amener à des résultats qui ne concordent pas totalement. L'étonnement qui émerge alors de cette non-concordance révèle tout l'intérêt heuristique qu'il y a à développer simultanément différentes méthodologies pour traiter une même question52164XVIPolitique familiale01Family Policy01Prestation familiale02Family benefit02Comparaison internationale03Crossnational Comparisons03Méthodologie04Methodology04Famille05Family05Famille incomplète06Single Parent Family06Simulation07Simulation07Données statistiques08Statistical Data08Redistribution09Redistribution09FranceNG10FranceNG10AllemagneNG11GermanyNG11IrlandeNG12IrelandNG12BelgiqueNG13BelgiumNG13LuxembourgNG14LuxemburgNG14Transfert monétaire15Remittance15Allocation de parent isoléINC31MicrosimulationINC32279 1149-1590Rech. previs. : (Paris)48Evaluations des politiques familiales : nouvelles méthodes, premiers résultatsMATH (Antoine)introd.Caisse Nationale des Allocations Familiales CNAF, Bureau de la Recherche, 23 rue Daviel75634 ParisFRA1 aut.1997FRE65 p.INIST229183540000675228200000000© 1997 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.dissem.521-97-14132PMRecherches et prévisions : (Paris)FRAFamily policies evaluation : new methods, first resultsnotes dissem.Mesurer l'impact des politiques familiales, et notamment leurs effets redistributifs, comporte des difficultés méthodologiques mais aussi théoriques. Des comparaisons internationales sont présentées pour le cas de la méthode des microsimulations. D'un point de vue théorique, les limites de l'approche économique des modèles de comportement démographique sont examinées. Une approche désagrégée, permettant de rendre compte de l'hétérogénéité des comportements, fournit des résultats à portée prospective52129AVIIIEuropeNG01EuropeNG01Politique familiale02Family Policy02Prestation familiale03Family benefit03Evaluation04Evaluation04Comparaison internationale05Crossnational Comparisons05Méthodologie06Methodology06Simulation07Simulation07Famille08Family08Famille incomplète09Single Parent Family09Données statistiques10Statistical Data10Redistribution11Redistribution11Comportement économique12Economic behavior12Comportement démographique13Demographic behaviour13Structure familiale14Family structure14Prospective15Outlook15Taille de la famille16Family Size16Modèle de comportement17Behavior pattern17Modélisation18Modeling18MicrosimulationINC31279 1149-1590Rech. previs. : (Paris)48La spécificité des politiques familiales en Europe : Une application menée à l'aide de microsimulationsEvaluations des politiques familiales : nouvelles méthodes, premiers résultatsJEANDIDIER (B.)MATH (Antoine)introd.ADEPS - CNRS et Université Nancy 2FRA1 aut.Caisse Nationale des Allocations Familiales CNAF, Bureau de la Recherche, 23 rue Daviel75634 ParisFRA1 aut.27-441997FREINIST229183540000675228200200000© 1997 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.19 ref.521-97-14112PCARecherches et prévisions : (Paris)FRASpecificities of Family policies in Europe : an application driven with the aid of microsimulationsFamily policies evaluation : new methods, first results5 notesLa spécificité de la politique de prestations familiales française par comparaison avec celles menées dans trois autres pays européens, la Belgique, l'Irlande, le Luxembourg, est analysée à l'aide d'une microsimulation qui consiste à calculer fictivement, pour un échantillon de ménages français réels, l'avantage familial monétaire (prestations familiales et avantage fiscal familial) qu'ils percevraient si ces politiques familiales étrangères étaient mises en oeuvre en France. Ainsi, en raisonnant à structure démo-économique constante, on peut mettre en valeur les spécificités propres aux politiques de prestations familiales qui font l'objet de la présente comparaison. Sont analysées successivement, puis simultanément, les spécificités suivantes : le degré de générosité globale, l'ampleur de la redistribution verticale, selon le niveau de vie, et l'ampleur des différents types de redistributions horizontales, selon le nombre d'enfants, l'âge des enfants, selon que les parents travaillent ou non, que l'enfant est ou non handicapé, que la famille est ou non biparentale52164XVIEuropeNG01EuropeNG01FranceNG02FranceNG02BelgiqueNG03BelgiumNG03LuxembourgNG04LuxemburgNG04IrlandeNG05IrelandNG05Politique familiale06Family Policy06Prestation familiale07Family benefit07Comparaison internationale08Crossnational Comparisons08Simulation09Simulation09Structure familiale10Family structure10Redistribution11Redistribution11Revenu12Income12Statut socio-économique13Socioeconomic status13Famille incomplète14Single Parent Family14Méthodologie15Methodology15MicrosimulationINC31Avantage familialINC32279Journées de l'Association d'économie sociale16Rennes FRA1996-09-12 0965-8564Transp. res., Part A, Policy pract.306Creating synthetic baseline populationsBECKMAN (R. J.)BAGGERLY (K. A.)MCKAY (M. D.)Statistics Group, Los Alamos National LaboratoryLos Alamos, NM 87545USA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.415-4291996ENGINIST12377A3540000667689500200000© 1996 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.17 ref.96-0506428PATransportation research. Part A : Policy and practiceUSATo develop activity-based travel models using microsimulation, individual travelers and households must be considered. Methods for creating baseline synthetic populations of households and persons using 1990 census data are given. Summary tables from the Census Bureau STF-3A are used in conjunction with the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), and Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) is applied to estimate the proportion of households in a block group or census tract with a desired combination of demographics. Households are generated by selection of households from the associated PUMS according to these proportions. The tables of demographic proportions which are exploited here to make household selections from the PUMS may be used in traditional modeling. The procedures are validated by creating pseudo census tracts from PUMS samples and considering the joint distribution of the size of households and the number of vehicles in the households. It is shown that the joint distributions created by these methods do not differ substantially from the true values. Additionally the effects of small changes in the procedure, such as imputation of additional demographics and adding partial counts to the constructed demographic tables are discussed in the paper.001D15ATransports01Transportation01Transportes01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Déplacement03Displacement03Desplazamiento03Voyage04Travel04Viaje04Ménage05Household05Familia05Statistique06Statistics06Statistik06Estadística06Démographie07Demography07Demografía07345 0049-4488TNPRDNTransportation233The sequenced activity mobility simulator (SAMS) : An integrated approach to modeling transportation, land use and air qualityA new generation of travel demand modelsKITAMURA (R.)PAS (E. I.)LULA (C. V.)LAWTON (T. K.)BENSON (P. E.)WACHS (Martin)ed.Kyoto UniversityKyotoJPN1 aut.Duke UniversityDurham, North CarolinaUSA2 aut.RDC, Inc.San Francisco, CaliforniaUSA3 aut.METROPortland, OregonUSA4 aut.California Department of TransportationSacramento, CaliforniaUSA5 aut.University of California Transportation CenterUSA1 aut.267-2911996ENGINIST159853540000664281400300000© 1996 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.2 p.1/496-0499729PATransportationNLDThe persistence of environmental problems in urban areas and the prospect of increasing congestion have precipitated a variety of new policies in the USA, with concomitant analytical and modeling requirements for transportation planning. This paper introduces the Sequenced Activity-Mobility Simulator (SAMS), a dynamic and integrated microsimulation forecasting system for transportation, land use and air quality, designed to overcome the deficiencies of conventional four-step travel demand forecasting systems. The proposed SAMS framework represents a departure from many of the conventional paradigms in travel demand forecasting. In particular, it aims at replicating the adaptative dynamics underlying transportation phenomena; explicitly incorporates the time-of-day dimension; represents human behavior based on the satisficing, as opposed to optimizing, principle; and endogenously forecasts socio-demographic, land use, vehicle fleet mix, and other variables that have traditionally been projected externally to be input into the forecasting process.001D15BTransports01Transportation01Transportes01Modèle prévision02Forecast model02Modelo previsión02Demande transport03Transport demand03Demanda transporte03Voyage04Travel04Viaje04Zone urbaine05Urban area05Zona urbana05Simulateur06Simulator06Simulador06Occupation sol07Land use07Ocupación terreno07Qualité air08Air quality08Calidad aire08Activité09Activity09Actividad09Mobilité10Mobility10Movilidad10Modèle simulation11Simulation model11Modelo simulación11345 0041-0683TENCA4Traffic eng. control379Transferability of priority management techniques for urban arterialsCLARK (S. D.)MAY (A. D.)MONTGOMERY (F. O.)Institute for Transport Studies, University of LeedsGBR1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.503-509 [6 p.]1996ENGINIST137293540000662031500200000© 1996 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.15 ref.96-0453092PATraffic engineering & controlGBRThis paper describes the background and methodology employed in research funded by EPSRC to assess the effect of individual traffic control measures on urban arterials, both in isolation and in combination. The aim of the project was to test the transferability of the techniques developed in a DRIVE II project, PRIMAVERA, to a range of different types of urban corridor. Measures have been classed into three broad categories: Congestion Management, Public Transport Priority and Traffic Calming. The scope of these measures is wide, some operating at a junction level whilst others have an impact over a whole corridor. Measures from these categories are applied in a sophisticated microsimulation model of a series of hypothetical networks and four urban arterial corridors: three in Leeds and one in Leicester. The effects of the application of individual and integrated measures are assessed in terms of their efficiency, environmental and safety impacts using a form of Multi-Criteria Analysis. Travel time and other monetary costs are also taken into consideration. Whilst these results are of interest to local planners in the operation of each of the arterial corridors studied, a wider insight into the operation of urban arterials can be drawn from this study leading to more efficient control of the available road space.001D15C001D15BRégulation traficP01Traffic controlP01Gestion trafic02Traffic management02Gestión tráfico02Zone urbaine03Urban area03Zona urbana03Etude méthode04Method study04Estudio método04Transférabilité05Transferability05Capacidad transferencia05Congestion trafic06Traffic congestion06Congestión tráfico06Transport public07Public transportation07Transporte público07Modèle simulation08Simulation model08Modelo simulación08Durée trajet09Travel time09Duración trayecto09Réseau routier10Highway systems10309 0960-1481Renew. energy91-4Forestation as a medium term buffer stock of carbonRenewable energy, energy efficiency and the environment. IIREAD (P.)SAYIGH (A. A. M.)ed.Economics Department, School of Applied and International Economics, Massey UniversityNZL1 aut.147 Hilmanton, Lower Earley, Reading RG6 4HNGBR1 aut.World Renewable Energy NetworkINTpatr.984-9881996ENGINIST206903540000442321709400000© 1996 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.6 ref.96-0411086PCARenewable energyGBR001D06C06002A14D02A002A33A01230Allocation ressource01Resource allocation01Asignación recurso01Atmosphère terrestre02Earth atmosphere02Atmósfera terrestre02Biomasse03Biomass03Biomasa03Cycle carbone04Carbon cycle04Ciclo carbono04Foresterie05Forestry05Ciencias forestales05Modèle économétrique06Econometric model06Modelo econométrico06Modèle simulation07Simulation model07Modelo simulación07Occupation sol08Land use08Ocupación terreno08Prix09Price09Precio09Production énergie11Power production11Producción energía11Simulation numérique12Numerical simulation12Simulación numérica12Source énergie13Energy source13Fuente energética13Stockage14Storage14Lagerung14Almacenamiento14Biocarburant15Biofuel15Biocarburante15Bois de feu16Fuelwood16Leña para fuego16CarboneNC17CarbonNC17KohlenstoffNC17CarbonoNC17Carbone dioxydeNKFX18Carbon dioxideNKFX18KohlendioxidNKFX18Carbono dióxidoNKFX18Echelle planétaire20Planetary scale20Escala planetaria20Modèle CLAMINC68Extension forestièreCD97AfforestationCD97AforestaciónCD97Gestion foncièreCD99Land managementCD99Ordenación de tierrasCD99Biogéochimie33Biogeochemistry33Biogeoquímica33Biosphère34Biosphere34Biosfera34Econométrie35Econometrics35Econometría35Economie énergie36Energy economy36Economía energía36Economie forestière37Forest economics37Economía forestal37Energie naturelle38Natural energy38Energía natural38Energie renouvelable40Renewable energy40Energía renovable40Environnement41Environment41Umgebung41Medio ambiente41Gestion environnement42Environmental management42Gestiòn medio ambiente42Gestion ressources43Resource management43Gestión recursos43Mathématiques appliquées44Applied mathematics44Matemáticas aplicadas44Méthodologie45Methodology45Metodología45Modélisation46Modeling46Modelización46Gaz effet serreNKCD98Greenhouse gasNKCD98281WREC-IV World Renewable Energy Congress4Denver, Colorado USA1996-06-15 0045-5067CJFRARCan. j. for. res.267The Canadian forest product sector : a sectoral econometric modelKANT (S.)AL-AMEEN (W.)NAUTIYAL (J. C.)Faculty of Forestry, University of Toronto, 33 Willcocks StreetToronton, ON M5S 3B3CAN1 aut.3 aut.1122-11341996ENGfreINIST198643540000606015700200000© 1996 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.21 ref.96-0348214PACanadian journal of forest researchCANUn modèle sectoriel du secteur des produits forestiers (SPF) comprenant les industries du bois, du meuble et des pâtes et papiers a été développé et estimé à l'aide de données couvrant 31 ans (1961 à 1991). Le modèle compte sept équations décrivant son comportement ((i) la production totale, (ii) la consommation domestique, (iii) les exportations, (iv) les importations et les prix (v) de la consommation, (vi) des exportations et (vii) des importations) de même qu'une identité pour chaque industrie. Quatre identités additionnelles complètent la structure de l'ensemble du modèle SPF. La performance du modèle est évaluée par la simulation d'une période d'échantillonnage. Une prévision a été effectuée pour les 5 prochains ans, et une analyse d'impact a été réalisée quant aux changements dans le domaine de l'habitation. La prévision montre une croissance annuelle plus lente dans le secteur SPF comparativement à l'ensemble de l'économie. [Traduit par la Rédaction]002A33A01Filière bois01Wood line01Foresterie02Forestry02Ciencias forestales02Industrie bois03Wood industry03Industria madera03Industrie papier04Paper industry04Papierindustrie04Industria papel04Marché biens services05Goods services market05Mercado bienes servicios05Modèle économétrique06Econometric model06Modelo econométrico06Modèle macroéconomique07Macroeconomic model07Modelo macroeconómico07Structure marché08Market structure08Estructura mercado08Structure sectorielle09Sector structure09Estructura sectorial09Bois15Wood15Holz15Madera15Mobilier16Furniture16Moebel16Mobiliario16Papier17Paper17Papier17Papel17Pâte papier18Paper pulp18Pasta papel18Produit forestier19Forest product19Producto de la selva19Econométrie33Econometrics33Econometría33Economie forestière34Forest economics34Economía forestal34Economie nationale35National economy35Economía nacional35Mathématiques appliquées37Applied mathematics37Matemáticas aplicadas37Modélisation38Modeling38Modelización38Structure économique40Economic structure40Estructura económica40Filière activitéCD96SectorCD96SubsectorCD96239 0306-2619APENDXAppl. energy542Conservation tillage and the use of energy and other inputs in US agricultureURI (N. D.)KONYAR (K.)Natural Resources and Environment Division, Economic Research Service, US Department of AgricultureWashington, DCUSA1 aut.75-1021996ENGINIST171623540000442564200100000© 1996 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.52 ref.96-0328381PAApplied energyGBRAn important issue with regard to the overall effectiveness of conservationtillage practices in reducing the impact of agricultural production on the environment concerns what happens to energy, pesticide and fertilizer use as these practices are more extensively adopted. To gain some insight into this, the conservation-tillage adoption decision is modeled. Starting with the assumption that the conservation-tillage adoption decision is a two-step procedure - the first is the decision whether or not to adopt a conservation-tillage production system and the second is the decision on the extent to which conservation tillage should be used - appropriate models of the Cragg and Heckman (dominance) type are estimated. Based on farm-level data on corn production in the USA for 1987, the profile ofa farm on which conservation tillage was adopted is that the cropland had above-average slope and experienced above-average rainfall: the farm was a cash grain enterprise, and it had an above-average expenditure on pesticides, a below-average expenditure on energy and a below-average expenditure on custom pesticide applications. Additionally, for a farm adopting a no-tillage production practice, an above-average expenditure was made on fertilizer.001D06D06002A32C01B2002A32C04B2230Analyse énergétique01Energy analysis01Análisis energético01Analyse entrée sortie02Input output analysis02Análisis entrada salida02Analyse système03System analysis03Análisis sistema03Dépense04Expenditure04Gasto04Modèle économétrique05Econometric model05Modelo econométrico05Modèle simulation06Simulation model06Modelo simulación06Prise décision07Decision making07Toma decision07Production végétale08Plant production08Produccíon vegetal08Technique culturale antiérosive09Conservation tillage09Técnica cultural antierosiva09Zea maysNS10Zea maysNS10Zea maysNS10Energie15Energy15Energie15Energía15Engrais16Fertilizers16Duenger16Fertilizante16Intrant agricole17Farm input17Insumo agrícola17Pesticide18Pesticides18Plaguicida18Etats UnisNG20United StatesNG20Vereinigte StaatenNG20Estados UnidosNG20GramineaeNSGramineaeNSGramineaeNSMonocotyledonesNSMonocotyledonesNSMonocotyledonesNSAngiospermaeNSAngiospermaeNSAngiospermaeNSSpermatophytaNSSpermatophytaNSSpermatophytaNSAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGNordamerikaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNGEconomie agricole33Agricultural economics33Economía agricola33Economie énergie34Energy economy34Economía energía34Economies d'énergie35Energy savings35Energieeinsparung35Ahorros energía35Gestion production36Production management36Gestión producción36Mathématiques appliquées37Applied mathematics37Matemáticas aplicadas37Méthodologie38Methodology38Metodología38Modélisation40Modeling40Modelización40Protection environnement41Environmental protection41Umweltschutz41Protección medio ambiente41Système production42Production system42Sistema producción42Plante céréalière43Cereal crop43Planta cerealista43Produit agrochimique52Agricultural chemical product52Producto químico agrícola52225 Démographie, Logement, Epargne et Retraite. Rapport final, Annexes au rapport finalARBONVILLE (D.)BLANCHET (D.)HOURIET-SEGARD (G.)BROUSSE (C.)MONFORT (J.A.)INEDFRA1 aut.2 aut.3 aut.4 aut.INSEEParisFRA5 aut.1994-11FREPlan Construction et ArchitectureParis2 vol. 211 p. tabl. graph.PC1353CSTBPC1353396019831006 p.96-0242602RMFRADemography, Housing, Home savings and Retirement. Final report, appendices to final reportPCA A427L'étude des liens démographie/logement et épargne retraite a été envisagée sous trois angles complémentaires: un exercice de microsimulation du statut d'occupation des retraités futurs, une revue de la littérature (essentiellement nord américaine) sur les comportements des personnes âgées vis-à-vis du logement, la dernière partie envisage les relations qui pourraient exister entre vieillissement de la population, fonctionnement du système de retraite et fonctionnement du marché du logement. Première étude: Microsimulation des charges de logement. Deuxième étude: Niveaux de vie et ajustement du patrimoine immobilier après la retraite. Troisième étude: Marché du logement dans un modèle à générations imbriquées. (CSTB)001D14A02295Logement habitationHousingHabitaciónRetraiteRetirementJubilaciónDémographieDemographyDemografíaSociologieSociologySociologíaMénageHouseholdFamiliaPropriétaireOwnerPropietarioLocataireTenantInquilinoAccession propriétéHome ownershipAcceso propiedadDonnée statistiqueStatistical dataDato estadísticoMarché logementHoming marketMercado viviendaTypologieTypologyTipologíaChargeLoadCargaVieillardElderlyAncianoHommeHumanHombre162 0378-3758JSPIDNJ. stat. plann. inference492The role of chaotic processes in econometric modelsEconometric methodology. Part IIFAREBROTHER (R. W.)SRIVASTAVA (V. K.)ed.Department of Econometrics and Social Statistics, Faculty of Economic and Social Studies, Victoria University of ManchesterManchester M13 9PLGBR1 aut.Lucknow UniversityLucknow 226007IND1 aut.163-1761996ENGINIST1757535400005331070001000007 ref.96-0233805PAJournal of statistical planning and inferenceNLDIn this paper we investigate the suggestion that the conventional stochastic disturbance term is not an essential feature of an economic model as it can be replaced by a suitable chaotic deterministic process. This prescription is clearly justified in the context of a simulation study when the deterministic process is carefully chosen for its pseudo-random properties. But this is not true of an arbtrarily selected chaotic process (such as the logistic map) whose aperiodic behaviour depends crucially on the strict continuity of its domain of definition. We also briefly examine the possibility of developing a test which discriminates between chaotic deterministic and truly stochastic processes. Two Appendices to the paper contain a Pascal program for computing the pattern of limit cycles for the rounded logistic map and a select bibliography of the economic applications of chaos theory.001A02H01H001A02H02N001A02H02MModèle économique01Economic model01Modelo económico01Chaos02Chaos02Caos02Modèle économétrique03Econometric model03Modelo econométrico03Processus stochastique04Stochastic process04Proceso estocástico04Génération nombre aléatoire05Random number generation05Generación número aleatorio05Nombre pseudoaléatoire06Pseudorandom number06Número seudo aleatorio06Modèle non linéaire07Non linear model07Modelo no lineal07Système déterministe08Deterministic system08Sistema determinista08Modèle déterministe09Deterministic model09Modelo determinista09Chaîne Markov10Markov chain10Cadena Markov10Trouble stochastiqueINC75Processus déterministeINC76Chaos déterministeCD96Deterministic chaosCD96162 Propositions d'objectifs régionaux de dépenses de médecine libérale. BOURNOT (M.C.)LUCAS (V.)TONNELLIER (F.)Centre de Recherche d'Etudes et de Documentation en Economie de la Santé. (C.R.E.D.E.S.). Paris.FRA1995-12FRECREDESParis2-878-12171-627 p.tabl., ann.BDSP/CREDES09475880022 ref.96-0127987LMFRAL'objet de cette étude est l'allocation de ressources dans le domaine de la médecine libérale. Le premier paragraphe présente diverses formules d'allocation de ressources, notamment celle qui a été proposée dans le rapport du Commissariat Général du Plan &dquot;Santé 2010&dquot;. Cette formule est calquée sur la procédure anglaise RAWP : chaque personne doit consommer une somme équivalente qui est fonction de son âge et de ses besoins. Les besoins sont estimés par un indice comparatif de mortalité. La deuxième paragraphe fait l'inventaire des données utilisées pour l'application à la médecine libérale en France. Le troisième paragraphe montre ce que serait la répartition &dquot;optimale&dquot; des dépenses, et la carte qui en résulterait avec divers indicateurs de besoins. Ce calcul est fait pour les généralistes et les spécialistes. Ensuite sont étudiés les rôles distincts joués par la structure par âge et la mortalité. Le quatrième paragraphe propose une modulation &dquot;équitable&dquot; de taux de croissance, avec les mêmes hypothèses que précédemment. La conclusion rappelle les intérêts et les limites de la simulation.002B30A11PlanificationPlanningPlanungPlanificaciónSantéHealthSaludDépenseExpenditureGastoRégionRegionRegiónFranceNGFranceNGFrankreichNGFranciaNGModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoMédecine libéraleINCEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEuropaNG085 0378-4754MCSIDRMath. comput. simul.393-4Tourism demand models : a critiqueModelling and simulationONG (C.)MCALEER (Michael)ed.JAKEMAN (A. J.)ed.HENDERSON-SELLERS (B.)ed.Univ. Western Australia, dep. economicsNedlands W. Aust. 6907AUSUniv. western Australia, dep. economicsNedlands W.A. 6009AUS1 aut.Modelling and Simulation Society of AustraliaAUSpatr.International Association for Mathematics and Computers in simulationINTpatr.367-3721995ENGINIST1331354000059935310270000010 ref.96-0089458PCAMathematics and computers in simulationNLD002A26Q05Tourisme01Tourism01Turismo01Simulation02Simulation02Simulation02Simulación02Modèle mathématique03Mathematical model03Mathematisches Modell03Modelo matemático03Modèle économétrique04Econometric model04Modelo econométrico04Modèle régression05Regression model05Modelo regresión05Modèle loglinéaire06Loglinear model06Modelo loglineal06Fonction demande07Demand function07Función demanda07Comportement consommateur08Consumer behavior08Comportamiento consumidor08Homme09Human09Hombre09057Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia MSSA. International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation IMACS. Biennal conference10Perth AUS1993-12-06 0378-4754MCSIDRMath. comput. simul.393-4Modelling the dynamic interactions among crime, deterrence and socio-economic variables : evidence from a vector error-correction modelModelling and simulationRUMI MASIHMCALEER (Michael)ed.JAKEMAN (A. J.)ed.HENDERSON-SELLERS (B.)ed.Univ. western Australia, dep. economicsNedlands W.A. 6009AUS1 aut.Modelling and Simulation Society of AustraliaAUSpatr.International Association for Mathematics and Computers in simulationINTpatr.411-4161995ENGINIST1331354000059935310340000011 ref.96-0089457PCAMathematics and computers in simulationNLDThis paper uses recent advances in time series econometrics to examine the dynamic interactions among crime, a deterrent varibale and three other socio-economic variables at a macro level for Australia between 1963-1991. We exploit the idea of long-run relationships and error-correcting equilibrium in developing a vector-error correction model that incorporates these variables and identifies its short-run deviations over time while preserving the long-run information that co-exists between them.002B18C04Criminalité01Criminality01Criminalidad01Délinquance02Delinquency02Delincuencia02Prévention03Prevention03Prevención03Analyse statistique04Statistical analysis04Statistische Analyse04Análisis estadístico04Modèle économétrique05Econometric model05Modelo econométrico05Série temporelle06Time series06Serie temporal06Processus multivarié07Multivariate process07Proceso multivariable07Correction erreur08Error correction08Fehlekorrektur08Corrección error08Equilibre09Equilibrium09Equilibrio09Long terme10Long term10Largo plazo10Simulation12Simulation12Simulation12Simulación12Modèle mathématique13Mathematical model13Mathematisches Modell13Modelo matemático13Etude longitudinale14Follow up study14Estudio longitudinal14Homme15Human15Hombre15CointégrationCD96CointegrationCD96CointegraciónCD96057Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia MSSA. International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation IMACS. Biennal conference10Perth AUS1993-12-06 0378-4754MCSIDRMath. comput. simul.393-4Econometric estimation for a model with dynamic housing tenure choiceModelling and simulationTAKASE (M.)MCALEER (Michael)ed.JAKEMAN (A. J.)ed.HENDERSON-SELLERS (B.)ed.Fukuoka univ., fac. economicsNanakuma Jonan-ku, Fukuoka 814-01JPNUniv. western Australia, dep. economicsNedlands W.A. 6009AUS1 aut.Modelling and Simulation Society of AustraliaAUSpatr.International Association for Mathematics and Computers in simulationINTpatr.359-3651995ENGINIST133135400005993531026000003 ref.96-0089440PCAMathematics and computers in simulationNLDThe objective of this paper is to show a method for estimating the parameters of a dynamic utility maximization model which includes discrete choices and to take housing demands as an example. The utility maximization problem introduces here attempts to determine how households decide when to purchase housing and how they decide to allocate their resources between housing and non-housing consumption.002A26Q05Comportement consommateur01Consumer behavior01Comportamiento consumidor01Simulation02Simulation02Simulation02Simulación02Modèle mathématique03Mathematical model03Mathematisches Modell03Modelo matemático03Estimation paramètre05Parameter estimation05Estimación parámetro05Modèle économétrique06Econometric model06Modelo econométrico06Fonction utilité07Utility function07Función utilidad07Maximisation08Maximization08Maximización08Fonction vraisemblance09Likelihood function09Función verosimilitud09Occupation logement10Housing tenure10Ocupación alojamiento10Logement habitation11Housing11Habitación11Achat12Purchases12Compra12Choix13Choice13Elección13Prise décision14Decision making14Toma decision14Modèle économique15Economic model15Modelo económico15Homme16Human16Hombre16057Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia MSSA. International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation IMACS. Biennal conference10Perth AUS1993-12-06 0361-1981TRREDMTransp. res. rec.1485Experimental analysis and modeling of advice compliance : results from advanced traverler information system simulation experimentsSafety and human performance ― Human performance and safety in highway, traffic, and ITS systemsVAUGHN (K. M.)KITAMURA (R.)JOVANIS (P. P.)Univ. California, inst. transportation studiesDavis CA 95616USA18-261995ENGINIST10459B354000055104830030000017 ref.96-0086117PATransportation research recordUSAComputer-based microsimulation is evolving as a useful tool for the collection of travel behavior data. Analysis of the route choice problem in particular demands sequential data to capture the behavioral dynamics involved. The use of microsimulations to collect data of this type is in its infancy, because microcomputers powerful enough for this type of simulation have only recently become available. One such simulation recently completed at the University of California at Davis resulted in a data set that will support dynamic modeling. The simulation collected 32 sequential binary route choice decisions made by 343 subjects under various experimental conditions. The experimental factors included information accuracy, feedback, provision of descriptive rationale for route advice, indication of one route alternative as a freeway, and control for stops on the side road route. An analysis of the experimental treatments used in the simulation is presented, and a dynamic probabilistic model of subjects' advice compliance is developed. A regression approach was used to estimate the factor effects of an analysis of variance model of the experimental treatments. Dynamics were introduced into the model by the development of a perception variable that, when it is incorporated, leads to the adaptive expectations model. A linearized model of relative frequencies incorporating lagged dependent variables to account for behavioral dynamics is formulated and estimated. Econometric methods of pooled cross-sectional, time-series analysis are used to estimate models that account for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation.001D15CRoute01Highway01Carretera01Trafic routier02Road traffic02Tráfico carretera02Système information03Information system03Sistema información03Etude expérimentale04Experimental study04Experimentelle Untersuchung04Estudio experimental04Simulation ordinateur05Computer simulation05Elektronenrechnersimulation05Simulación computadora05Modèle dynamique06Dynamic model06Modelo dinámico06Modèle probabiliste07Probabilistic model07Modelo probabilista07Choix08Choice08Elección08Modèle régression09Regression model09Modelo regresión09Complaisance10Compliance10Complacencia10Linéarisation11Linearization11Linearización11050 0378-4754MCSIDRMath. comput. simul.393-4Estimation of sample-selection models by the maximum likelihood methodModelling and simulationNAWATA (K.)MCALEER (Michael)ed.JAKEMAN (A. J.)ed.HENDERSON-SELLERS (B.)ed.Univ. Tokyo, dep. social international relationsKomaba, Tokyo 153JPNUniv. western Australia, dep. economicsNedlands W.A. 6009AUS1 aut.Modelling and Simulation Society of AustraliaAUSpatr.International Association for Mathematics and Computers in simulationINTpatr.299-3031995ENGINIST1331354000059935310160000013 ref.96-0065423PCAMathematics and computers in simulationNLD001A02H02GModèle économétrique01Econometric model01Modelo econométrico01Maximum vraisemblance02Maximum likelihood02Maxima verosimilitud02Estimation statistique04Statistical estimation04Estimación estadística04Méthode Monte Carlo05Monte Carlo method05Monte Carlo Methode05Método Monte Carlo05VraisemblanceINC42LIMDEPINC75Sélection échantillonCD96Sample selectionCD96036Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia MSSA. International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation IMACS. Biennal conference10Perth AUS1993-12-06 0378-4754MCSIDRMath. comput. simul.393-4An expert systems approach to econometric modellingModelling and simulationOXLEY (L. T.)MCALEER (Michael)ed.JAKEMAN (A. J.)ed.HENDERSON-SELLERS (B.)ed.Univ. Edinburgh, dep. economicsEdinburgh EH8 9JYGBRUniv. western Australia, dep. economicsNedlands W.A. 6009AUS1 aut.Modelling and Simulation Society of AustraliaAUSpatr.International Association for Mathematics and Computers in simulationINTpatr.379-3831995ENGINIST1331354000059935310290000018 ref.96-0065268PCAMathematics and computers in simulationNLD001A02H02N001D02C07Système expert01Expert system01Expertensystem01Sistema experto01Modélisation02Modeling02Modelización02Modèle économétrique03Econometric model03Modelo econométrico03Spécification modèle04Model specification04Especificación modelo04Test statistique05Statistical test05Test estadístico05Test préliminaire06Preliminary test06Test preliminar06036Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia MSSA. International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation IMACS. Biennal conference10Perth AUS1993-12-06 0027-8874J. Natl. Cancer Inst.8716Quantitative interpretation of age-specific mortality reductions from the Swedish breast cancer-screening trialsDE KONING (H. J.)BOER (R.)WARMERDAM (P. G.)BEEMSTERBOER (P. M. M.)VAN DER MAAS (P. J.)Erasmus univ. Rotterdam, dep. public health3000 DR RotterdamNLD1217-12231995ENGINIST3364354000058630230040000021 ref.96-0006055PAJournal of the National Cancer InstituteUSABackground : Results from five Swedish randomized trials may provide the most conclusive evidence on the effect of mammographic screening and have been used to forecast the expected reduction in breast cancer mortality in other programs. However, those trials demonstrated different degrees of reduction. The interpretation of observed mortality reduction after long follow-up for women aged 40-49 years at trial entry is both important and controversial. Purpose: We estimated what percentage of the observed mortality reduction for women aged 40-49 years at entry into the five Swedish screening trials might be attributable to screening these women at 50 years of age or older. Moreover, we calculated the most likely percentage mortality reduction for specific screening programs if the Swedish results were generalized and analyzed whether characteristics of each trial might at least partly explain the observed differences in reductions among the trials. Methods : Each Swedish trial was simulated with one underlying computer simulation model (MISCAN-MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis) of the natural history of the disease and the performance of screening, taking into account nine important trial characteristics. Improvement in prognosis for screen-detected case patients was estimated with age-specific reduction for all trials and each trial design as a reference. Results : An expected 7% reduction in breast cancer mortality for women aged 40-49 years at trial entry (relative risk [RR] = 0.93) was determined by computer modeling, assuming no improvement in prognosis for cancers that are screen detected before 50 years of age. This result indicates that, of the overall 10% observed reduction (RR = 0.90) in the five Swedish trials analyzed, most (70%) of this reduction might be attributable to screening these women in later rounds after their 50th birthday. Using additional trial information, predictions of breast cancer mortality reduction in women 50 years or older might be 11% larger than previously expected, assuming that high-quality mammographic screening can be achieved in nationwide programs. For women aged 50-69 years at trial entry, the differences in expected versus observed mortality reduction among the trials are estimated to be relatively small. (Expected mortality reductions range from 24% to 32%.) Conclusions : Results from the Swedish randomized breast cancer-screening trials should be seen as more favorable regarding the effect of mammographic screening in reducing breast cancer mortality for women aged 50-69 years than was estimated earlier. Our analyses also suggest that the improvement in prognosis due to screening for women aged 40-49 years is much smaller than that for women aged 50 years or older. Approximately, 70% of the 10% observed reduction in breast cancer mortality (i.e., 7%) for women aged 40-49 years at trial entry might be attributable to a reduction due to screening these women after they reach age 50. Implications : Detailed screening data for the 40- to 49-year age group of all Swedish trials should be analyzed to specifically estimate the natural history and performance of screening in this age group.002B20E02Tumeur maligne01Malignant tumor01Tumor maligno01Glande mammaire02Mammary gland02Glándula mamaria02Mammographie04Mammography04Mastografía04Exploration radiologique05Radiologic investigation05Exploración radiológica05Dépistage06Medical screening06Descubrimiento06Mortalité07Mortality07Mortalidad07Simulation ordinateur08Computer simulation08Elektronenrechnersimulation08Simulación computadora08Epidémiologie09Epidemiology09Epidemiología09SuèdeNG10SwedenNG10SchwedenNG10SueciaNG10Homme11Human11Hombre11EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEuropaNGGlande mammaire pathologie37Mammary gland diseases37Glándula mamaria patología37Radiodiagnostic45Radiodiagnosis45Radiodiagnóstico45Santé publique53Public health53Salud pública53359 Propositions d'objectifs régionaux de dépenses de médecine libérale. BOURNOT (M.C.)LUCAS (V.)TONNELLIER (F.)Centre de Recherche d'Etudes et de Documentation en Economie de la Santé. (C.R.E.D.E.S.). Paris.FRA1995-12FRECREDESParis2-878-12171-627 p.tabl., ann.BDSP/CREDES09475880022 ref.610-96-13358LMFRAL'objet de cette étude est l'allocation de ressources dans le domaine de la médecine libérale. Le premier paragraphe présente diverses formules d'allocation de ressources, notamment celle qui a été proposée dans le rapport du Commissariat Général du Plan &dquot;Santé 2010&dquot;. Cette formule est calquée sur la procédure anglaise RAWP : chaque personne doit consommer une somme équivalente qui est fonction de son âge et de ses besoins. Les besoins sont estimés par un indice comparatif de mortalité. La deuxième paragraphe fait l'inventaire des données utilisées pour l'application à la médecine libérale en France. Le troisième paragraphe montre ce que serait la répartition &dquot;optimale&dquot; des dépenses, et la carte qui en résulterait avec divers indicateurs de besoins. Ce calcul est fait pour les généralistes et les spécialistes. Ensuite sont étudiés les rôles distincts joués par la structure par âge et la mortalité. Le quatrième paragraphe propose une modulation &dquot;équitable&dquot; de taux de croissance, avec les mêmes hypothèses que précédemment. La conclusion rappelle les intérêts et les limites de la simulation.61030A11VII610PlanificationPlanningPlanungPlanificaciónSantéHealthSaludDépenseExpenditureGastoRégionRegionRegiónFranceNGFranceNGFrankreichNGFranciaNGModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoMédecine libéraleINCEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEuropaNG085 0027-8874J. Natl. Cancer Inst.8716Quantitative interpretation of age-specific mortality reductions from the Swedish breast cancer-screening trialsDE KONING (H. J.)BOER (R.)WARMERDAM (P. G.)BEEMSTERBOER (P. M. M.)VAN DER MAAS (P. J.)Erasmus univ. Rotterdam, dep. public health3000 DR RotterdamNLD1217-12231995ENGINIST3364354000050321570040000021 ref.95-0570282PAJournal of the National Cancer InstituteUSABackground : Results from five Swedish randomized trials may provide the most conclusive evidence on the effect of mammographic screening and have been used to forecast the expected reduction in breast cancer mortality in other programs. However, those trials demonstrated different degrees of reduction. The interpretation of observed mortality reduction after long follow-up for women aged 40-49 years at trial entry is both important and controversial. Purpose: We estimated what percentage of the observed mortality reduction for women aged 40-49 years at entry into the five Swedish screening trials might be attributable to screening these women at 50 years of age or older. Moreover, we calculated the most likely percentage mortality reduction for specific screening programs if the Swedish results were generalized and analyzed whether characteristics of each trial might at least partly explain the observed differences in reductions among the trials. Methods : Each Swedish trial was simulated with one underlying computer simulation model (MISCAN-MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis) of the natural history of the disease and the performance of screening, taking into account nine important trial characteristics. Improvement in prognosis for screen-detected case patients was estimated with age-specific reduction for all trials and each trial design as a reference. Results : An expected 7% reduction in breast cancer mortality for women aged 40-49 years at trial entry (relative risk [RR] = 0.93) was determined by computer modeling, assuming no improvement in prognosis for cancers that are screen detected before 50 years of age. This result indicates that, of the overall 10% observed reduction (RR = 0.90) in the five Swedish trials analyzed, most (70%) of this reduction might be attributable to screening these women in later rounds after their 50th birthday. Using additional trial information, predictions of breast cancer mortality reduction in women 50 years or older might be 11% larger than previously expected, assuming that high-quality mammographic screening can be achieved in nationwide programs. For women aged 50-69 years at trial entry, the differences in expected versus observed mortality reduction among the trials are estimated to be relatively small. (Expected mortality reductions range from 24% to 32%.) Conclusions : Results from the Swedish randomized breast cancer-screening trials should be seen as more favorable regarding the effect of mammographic screening in reducing breast cancer mortality for women aged 50-69 years than was estimated earlier. Our analyses also suggest that the improvement in prognosis due to screening for women aged 40-49 years is much smaller than that for women aged 50 years or older. Approximately, 70% of the 10% observed reduction in breast cancer mortality (i.e., 7%) for women aged 40-49 years at trial entry might be attributable to a reduction due to screening these women after they reach age 50. Implications : Detailed screening data for the 40- to 49-year age group of all Swedish trials should be analyzed to specifically estimate the natural history and performance of screening in this age group.002B20E02Tumeur maligne01Malignant tumor01Tumor maligno01Glande mammaire02Mammary gland02Glándula mamaria02Diagnostic04Diagnosis04Diagnóstico04Stade précoce05Early stage05Estadio precoz05Mortalité07Mortality07Mortalidad07Réduction08Reduction08Reducción08Analyse statistique10Statistical analysis10Statistische Analyse10Análisis estadístico10Interprétation information11Information interpretation11Interpretación información11Méthodologie12Methodology12Metodología12SuèdeNG13SwedenNG13SchwedenNG13SueciaNG13Homme25Human25Hombre25Femelle26Female26Hembra26Dépistage27Medical screening27Descubrimiento27EuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEuropaNGGlande mammaire pathologie37Mammary gland diseases37Glándula mamaria patología37Santé publique38Public health38Salud pública38324 0075-8442427Microsimulation modelling of the corporate firm : exploring micro-macro economic relationsVAN TONGEREN (Frank W.)1995ENGXVI, 275 p.25 cmgraph., indexINIST12007 B354000050589880000000017 p.95-0550761PMLecture notes in economics and mathematical systemsDEU001D00D001D01A14Entreprise01Firm01Unternehmen01Empresa01Economie02Economy02Wirtschaft02Economía02Modélisation03Modeling03Modelización03Prise décision04Decision making04Toma decision04Investissement05Investment05Investitionen05Inversión05Etude expérimentale06Experimental study06Experimentelle Untersuchung06Estudio experimental06Monographie07Monograph07Monographie07Monografía07MicrosimulationINC72317 0368-492XKBNTA3Kybernetes247A systems model of the Malaysian macro-economyModern applications of systems and cyberneticsMASUDUL ALAM CHOUDHURYRUDALL (B. H.)av.-prop.Univ. coll. Cape BretonSydney NSCANInst. world organisation systems cybernetics Univ. WalesBangorGBR1 aut.75-901995ENGINIST15612354000054612810070000017 ref.95-0525549PCAKybernetesGBR001D01A14Modélisation01Modeling01Modelización01Modèle macroéconomique02Macroeconomic model02Modelo macroeconómico02MalaisieNG03MalaysiaNG03MalasiaNG03Prix04Price04Precio04Endogène05Endogenous05Endógeno05Modèle économétrique06Econometric model06Modelo econométrico06Développement économique07Economic development07Desarrollo económico07Politique économique08Economic policy08Política económica08Système économique09Economic system09Sistema económico09Modèle simulation10Simulation model10Modelo simulación10AsieNGAsiaNGAsienNGAsiaNG296Malaysian econometric conference2MYS1994-06-22 0167-9473Comput. stat. data anal.203Identification of multivariate AR-models by threshold acceptingWINKER (P.)Univ. Konstanz, Sonderforschungsbereich 17878434 KonstanzDEU295-3071995ENGINIST20214354000054611820050000023 ref.95-0520853PAComputational statistics & data analysisNLDIn econometric modelling the choice of relevant variables is of crucial importance for the interpretation of the results. In many cases it is based on some a priori knowledge from economic theory and a rather heuristic procedure for determining other influential variables sometimes based on an information criterion. This paper deals with an automatic method for the identification of relevant variables based solely on an information criterion. As an example, the identification of multivariate lag structures in AR-models is studied. This issue arises e.g. for large-scale econometric models, for Granger causality tests or the application of Johansen's test for cointegration. The procedure suggested in this paper allows the optimization of the lag structure over the whole set of possible multivariate lag structures with regard to a given information criterion, e.g. the Hannan-Quinn estimator or Akaike's final prediction error criterion. The optimization is performed by the heuristic multiple purpose optimization algorithm Threshold Accepting which proved to be very successful for discrete optimization problems in economics and econometrics. The implementation of Threshold Accepting for subset identification in multivariate AR-models and some simulation results for a bivariate model are presented.001A02H02I001A02H02J001A02H02NModèle régression01Regression model01Modelo regresión01Méthode optimisation02Optimization method02Método optimización02Modèle économétrique03Econometric model03Modelo econométrico03Identification04Identification04Identificación04Approche heuristique05Heuristic approach05Enfoque heurístico05Analyse multivariable06Multivariate analysis06Análisis multivariable06296 0030-364XOPREAIOper. res.433Regulation by simulation: the role of production cost models in electricity planning and pricingKAHN (E.)Univ. CaliforniaBerkeley CAUSA388-3981995ENGINIST7150354000051451400020000046 ref.95-0506120PAOperations researchUSAThis paper is a case study on the role of complex computer simulation models in the regulation of the electricity industry. The analysis focuses on electricity production cost simulation models as they are used to set prices for certain nonutility generators in California. This represents an early part of the trend toward &dquot;markets&dquot; for electric power, and away from pure monopoly supply. The introduction of even limited competition creates conditions both favoring and hindering the reliability of cost estimates, and demonstrates the sensitivity of results to problem specification and model implementation. Attention is focused on the representation of power system operational constraints, particularly the unit commitment problem, in the modeling process and their effect on the prices which result. Examples from the litigation history illustrate the problem of managing the strategic use and abuse of modeling techniques for competitive advantage. Highly structured procedures for using models in such situations offer some constraints on manipulation by competing parties. Otherwise, experts are apt to overwhelm regulators.001D06A01C4230Industrie électrique01Electric industry01Capacité production02Production capacity02Capacidad producción02Planification03Planning03Fixation prix04Pricing04Coût production05Production cost05Herstellkosten05Coste producción05Secteur privé06Private sector06Sector privado06Modèle économétrique07Econometric model07Modelo econométrico07Simulation numérique08Numerical simulation08Simulación numérica08Régulation09Regulation(control)09Regelung09Regulación09Marché10Markets10Mercado10CalifornieNG11CaliforniaNG11CaliforniaNG11Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGVereinigte StaatenNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGNordamerikaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG289 0020-9511INVEDTInt. Verkehrswes.474Ökonomische Systemanalyse für das Verkehrswesen : Verkehrswegebau als Ursache und als Wirkung der Wandlungen von Besiedlungs- und Produktionsstrukturen200-2021995GERengfreINIST8891354000056250830060000095-0284194PAInternationales VerkehrswesenDEUEconomic systems analysis for the transport industry - the construction of transport routes of cause and effect of the charges in residential and production structuresCette étude est un modèle économétrique valable pour l'économie nationale qui tente d'illustrer les conséquences des mesures prises par la politique des transport, en partant non seulement de l'importance du trafic et des rapports écologiques, mais également des liens de cause à effet pour l'économie nationale. Elle se consacre aux augmentations et aux diminutions des impôts tout comme aux augmentations de prix et investissements dans les voies routières et ferroviaires. La simulation des effets est également examinée sous l'aspect de la structure productive de l'économie nationale, du développement du produit social et de la situation nationale de l'emploi. Elle se base sur un prognostic ex post pour une période située entre les années 1981 jusqu'à 1990. Elle procède également à une quantification des frais externes et de l'utilité du trafic en général, à l'occasion de quoi l'utilité externe assume une importance prépondérante001D15BAnalyse économiqueEconomic analysisAnálisis económicoPolitique transportTransportation policyPolítica transporteSimulationSimulationSimulationSimulaciónModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoInfrastructure transportTransportation infrastructureInfraestructura transporteDéveloppement économiqueEconomic developmentDesarrollo económicoPronosticPrognosisPronóstico171 0259-2460124Structural adjustement and agriculture : African and Asian experiencesSUBRAMANIAN (S.)SADOULET (E.)DE JANVRY (A.)1994ENGIX, 150 p.21 cmgraph.INIST2258635400005820163000000004 p.95-0227996PMFAO economic and social development paperITAThe early emphasis of structural adjustment programmes on wholesale reductions in government expenditure has been questioned by the realization that cut-backs in public spending can sverely negate any positive impetus from price liberalization. This is of particular relevance for agriculture which is greatly dependent on the supply of public goods. The focus of this study is the contrast between adjustment and the role of the sate in the poor African and Asian countries. Multisectorial models capture the contrasted structural features of archetypical African and Asian economies. The simulations of cut-backs in current and capital expenditures and their effects on public goods, such as infrastructure and sectorial productivity growth, suggest that the impact of these changes is stronger in Africa than in Asia. It is also shown that restrictive credit policies will have a stronger negative effect on private investment and growth in Africa, where the financial system is less developed. Finally, the impact of adjustment on the incomes of the powerful classes suggests that achieving political sustainability for the reforms is more difficult in Africa than in Asia. The results are used to tailor policy packages to the African and Asian context002A32A04Agriculture01Agriculture01Landwirtschaft01Agricultura01Aide état02Government aid02Subvention02Ayuda estatal02Crédit03Credit03Crédito03Dépense04Expenditure04Gasto04Développement durable05Sustainable development05Desarrollo durable05Développement économique06Economic development06Desarrollo económico06Libéralisation07Liberalisation07Modèle économétrique08Econometric model08Modelo econométrico08Modification structure09Structure modification09Modificación estructural09Politique économique10Economic policy10Política económica10Prix11Price11Precio11Simulation numérique12Numerical simulation12Simulación numérica12Structure économique13Economic structure13Estructura económica13AfriqueNG20AfricaNG20AfrikaNG20AfricaNG20AsieNG21AsiaNG21AsienNG21AsiaNG21Pays en développement22Developing countries22Entwicklungsland22Países en desarrollo22Durabilité systèmeCD96SustainabilityCD96SostenibilidadCD96Intervention de l'EtatCD97State interventionCD97Intervención estatalCD97Politique des structuresCD98Structural policiesCD98Politica de estructurasCD98Economie agricole34Agricultural economics34Economía agricola34Economie nationale35National economy35Economía nacional35Macroéconomie36Macroeconomics36Macroeconomía36Socioéconomie37Socioeconomics37Socioeconomía37136 Rapport d'activité 1993. tome 2: industrie, technologies et produits propresCNRS. Programme ECOTECHMeudonFRA1994FRE[580 p.]30 cmfig.ECOTECH-RA93-2INISTRP 440 (396)354000039763630000000095-0103703RMFRA1993 activity report. 2: industry, technology and clean productsCe rapport comprend: (1) Economie et innovation (études de l'aval industriel des recherches en environnement: evaluation des perspectives de développement du logiciel &dquot;zoom&dquot; dans l'industrie; déterminants de la pénétration du progrès technique: prix de l'énergie et substitutions techniques). (2) Procédés propres et sobres (échangeurs thermiques; nouveaux adsorbants pour PAC et machines à froid, nouveaux procédés solide-gaz; traitement industriel des fluides non newtoniens; génie des systèmes de séchage; séchage des milieux fortement déformables; modélisation du broyage; suspensions colloïdales concentrées; polymérisation sous micro-ondes; nouveaux procédés propres: nouvelles synthèses, génie des procédés; optimisation énergétique des procédés; catalyse en chimie fine; biolixiviation de sulfures métalliques; procédés propres en cokéfaction et carbonisation; métallogénie des métaux de haute technologie; techniques d'exploitation du pétrole). (3) Ecoproduits et recyclages (régénération des catalyseurs métalliques supportés; qualité du métal liquide en liaison avec son élaboration; matériaux carbones adsorbants). (4) Traitement des déchets et effluents (dégradation de composés polluants par des microorganismes; dépollution par plasma hors équilibre; procédés plasma thermiques appliqués au traitement des rejets et au recyclage; devenir des métaux lourds dans les incinérateurs, étude thermodynamique)430A13H430A03I001D07BTechnologie propre01Wasteless technology01Tecnología limpia01Etude technicoéconomique02Technicoeconomic study02Estudio técnicoeconómico02Simulation numérique03Numerical simulation03Simulación numérica03Logiciel04Software04Software04Logicial04Application industrielle05Industrial application05Aplicación industrial05Coût énergie06Energy cost06Energiekosten06Coste energía06Réglementation07Regulation07Vorschrift07Reglamentación07Modèle économétrique08Econometric model08Modelo econométrico08Echangeur chaleur09Heat exchanger09Waermeaustauscher09Intercambiador calor09Adsorption gaz solide10Gas solid adsorption10Adsorción gas sólido10Adsorbant11Adsorbent11Adsorbente11Réaction chimique12Chemical reaction12Chemische Reaktion12Reacción química12Transformateur chaleur13Heat transformer13Transformador calor13Fluide non newtonien14Non Newtonian fluid14Fluido no-newtoniano14Propriété rhéologique15Rheological properties15Rheologische Eigenschaft15Propiedad rheológica15Industrie alimentaire16Food industry16Lebensmittelindustrie16Industria alimenticia16Séchage17Drying17Trocknen17Secado17Broyage18Grinding(comminution)18Mahlen18Molienda18Modélisation19Modeling19Modelización19Granulométrie20Grain size analysis20Teilchengroessenbestimmung20Granulometría20Dimension particule21Particle size21Teilchengroesse21Dimensión partícula21Suspension colloïdale22Colloidal suspension22Kolloidale Suspension22Suspensión coloidal22Suspension concentrée23Concentrated suspension23Suspensión concentrada23Matériau composite24Composite material24Verbundwerkstoff24Material compuesto24Polymérisation25Polymerization25Polimerización25Hyperfréquence26Microwave26Mikrowelle26Hiperfrecuencia26Synthèse chimique27Chemical synthesis27Chemische Synthese27Síntesis química27Optimisation28Optimization28Optimierung28Optimización28Conception29Design29Gestaltung29Diseño29Analyse énergétique30Energy analysis30Análisis energético30Analyse exergétiqueINC33Réaction catalytiqueINC34Lixiviation bactérienneINC35SulfureINC36CokéfactionINC37CarbonisationINC38Industrie pétrochimiqueINC39RecyclageINC40Régénération catalyseurINC41Catalyseur sur supportINC42Métal transitionINC43Métal liquideINC44Contrôle qualitéINC45Traitement déchetINC46Epuration eau uséeINC47Epuration effluent gazeuxINC48PlasmaINC49Protection environnementINC50067 0198-9715CEUSD5Comput., environ. urban syst.175Nonlinear dynamic simulation of optimal depletion of crude oil in the lower 48 United StatesRUTH (M.)CLEVELAND (C. J.)Boston univ., dep. geography, cent. energy environmental studiesBoston MA 02215USA425-4351993ENGINIST20192354000023894770040000025 ref.95-0060756PAComputers, environment and urban systemsUSA001D02B08001D06B02B1230Pétrole brut01Crude oil01Petróleo bruto01Déplétion02Depletion02Depleción02Simulation ordinateur03Computer simulation03Elektronenrechnersimulation03Simulación computadora03Etats UnisNG04United StatesNG04Vereinigte StaatenNG04Estados UnidosNG04Modélisation05Modeling05Modelización05Modèle économétrique06Econometric model06Modelo econométrico06Optimisation07Optimization07Optimierung07Optimización07Modèle non linéaire08Non linear model08Modelo no lineal08Modèle dynamique09Dynamic model09Modelo dinámico09Théorie économique68Economic theory68Teoría económica68Système dynamique69Dynamical system69Sistema dinámico69Econométrie71Econometrics71Econometría71Infographie72Computer graphics72Gráfico computadora72Langage programmation73Programming language73Lenguaje programación73Optimal resourceINC90Crude oilINC91USAINC92Amérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGNordamerikaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG046 0030-364XOPREAIOper. res.433Regulation by simulation: the role of production cost models in electricity planning and pricingKAHN (E.)Univ. CaliforniaBerkeley CAUSA388-3981995ENGINIST7150354000051451400020000046 ref.731-95-11152PAOperations researchUSAThis paper is a case study on the role of complex computer simulation models in the regulation of the electricity industry. The analysis focuses on electricity production cost simulation models as they are used to set prices for certain nonutility generators in California. This represents an early part of the trend toward &dquot;markets&dquot; for electric power, and away from pure monopoly supply. The introduction of even limited competition creates conditions both favoring and hindering the reliability of cost estimates, and demonstrates the sensitivity of results to problem specification and model implementation. Attention is focused on the representation of power system operational constraints, particularly the unit commitment problem, in the modeling process and their effect on the prices which result. Examples from the litigation history illustrate the problem of managing the strategic use and abuse of modeling techniques for competitive advantage. Highly structured procedures for using models in such situations offer some constraints on manipulation by competing parties. Otherwise, experts are apt to overwhelm regulators.73142XLII230731Industrie électrique01Electric industry01Capacité production02Production capacity02Capacidad producción02Planification03Planning03Fixation prix04Pricing04Coût production05Production cost05Herstellkosten05Coste producción05Secteur privé06Private sector06Sector privado06Modèle économétrique07Econometric model07Modelo econométrico07Simulation numérique08Numerical simulation08Simulación numérica08Régulation09Regulation(control)09Regelung09Regulación09Marché10Markets10Mercado10CalifornieNG11CaliforniaNG11CaliforniaNG11Etats UnisNGUnited StatesNGVereinigte StaatenNGEstados UnidosNGAmérique du NordNGNorth AmericaNGNordamerikaNGAmerica del norteNGAmériqueNGAmericaNGAmericaNG289 0040-747X861An econometric model of socio-spatial development of tourist regions. The case of the Swiss canton of ValaisTourism regions and spaces in a changing social frameworkBAILLY (A.S.)PAELINCK (J.H.P.)WILLIAMS (A.M.)ed.72-793 fig., 3 tabl.1995ENGengINTG185578200531-95-11802PATijdschrift voor economische en sociale geografieNLDModélisation utilisant les techniques de la géographie du comportement et l'analyse psychologique. Système généralisé de Volterra-Lotka531151IV531Modèle économétrique56301Econometric model56301Région touristique56302Tourist region56302Tourisme56303Tourism56303Culturel56304Cultural studies56304Décentralisation56305Decentralization56305Simulation56306Simulation56306Comportement56307Behaviour56307Suisse56422Switzerland56422Valais56423Valais56423U103!07,01,04,05!23,22U106!03,01,07,04!23,22U222!23!03,01,07,06142 0034-3404286An econometric model of Merseyside: validation and policy simulationsMINFORD (P.)STONEY (P.)RILEY (J.)WEBB (B.)563-5756 fig., 1 tabl.1994ENGengfregerINTG18471820010 ref.531-95-10071PARegional studiesGBRModèle économétrique du type Hecksher-Ohlin, sur des données annuelles de la période 1977-91, appliqué au secteur marchand. Il présente une courbe d'offre ascendante pour le travail manuel (salaire de base fixé en fonction des allocations chômage. Les autres prix des facteurs étant fixés de manière exogène, l'offre de travail manuel détermine l'importance de la production régionale. Ajustement acceptable. Simulations de 1992 à 2004: elles montrent les avantages de politiques visant la réduction des coûts locaux531132IV531Modèle économétrique56301Econometric model56301Travail56302Labour56302Politique de l'emploi56303Employment policy56303Economie régionale56304Regional economy56304Formation des prix56305Price fixing56305Salaire56306Wage56306Marché du travail56307Labour market56307Simulation56308Simulation56308Royaume-Uni56422United Kingdom56422England56423England56423Merseyside56424Merseyside56424U104!01,02,03,08!24,23U102!07,01,06,05!24,23U222!23!24,07,01,03017 0014-0759Esprit : (1940)204Partage du travail: les pièges d'une idée simple : La France et son chômageBOISARD (P.)44-511994FREINIST244103540000402903000200000521-95-11480PAEsprit : (1940)FRASharing of labour: Dangers of a simple conceptref. et notes dissem.L'une des récentes solutions proposées pour lutter contre le chômage est celle du partage du travail qui tire sa force de conviction de l'évidence de son mécanisme et de la générosité de son principe. Or, pour l'A., l'idée d'une quantité de travail préexistant à sa répartition est une abstraction : il n'y a pas une masse de travail homogène, mais une somme d'emplois hétérogènes qui s'agrègent localement dans des établissements52150XIII421France56401France56401Chômage56302Unemployment56302Politique de l'emploi56303Employment Policy56303Division du travail56304Division of Labor56304Répartition56305Distribution56305Population active56306Working Population56306Théorie56307Theory56307Simulation56308Simulation56308Modèle économétrique56309Econometric Model56309Temps de travail56310Working time56310Réalité56311Reality56311Controverse563INC31UA01!02!05,10UA04!02!31,07,05,10UA10!05!03,01163 Propositions pour la construction d'une branche matériel médicalRégion espaces santéAURAY (J.P.)DURU (G.)TURBAT (V.)Association Rhodanienne pour l'Avancement de l'Econométrie. (A.R.A.E.). Lyon.FRApatr.420-4351984-05-24/1984-05-25FRE2-903-44911-2Structures économiques et économétrieFRA1984-05-24BDSP/CREDESRAM75080044988006 ref.94-0387567CAINCL'objectif des auteurs consiste à faire apparaître une branche santé et une branche matériel médical au sein du Tableau Entrées- Sorties (T.E.S.) en 90 branches du Système Elargi de Comptabilité Nationale (S.E.C.N.) ; ceci permettrait d'analyser les effets d'entraînement de l'activité de santé sur la totalité de la structure productive. Pour cela, les auteurs proposent une technique de désagrégation de ce T.E.S., puis une simulation visant à séparer des autres produits le matériel médical d'une part et les produits de santé d'autre part002B30A11Modèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoEconométrieEconometricsEconometríaComptabilité nationaleNational accountsContabilidad nacionalSecteur économiqueEconomic sectorSector económicoEquipement biomédicalBiomedical equipmentEquipo biomédicoMéthodeMethodMétodoFranceNGFranceNGFrankreichNGFranciaNGCompte satellite santéINCEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEuropaNG192NBS 0747-4938Econom. rev.112Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariancesBOLLERSLEV (T.)WOOLDRIDGE (J. M.)Northwestern univ., J. L. Kellogg graduate school management, dep. financeUSA143-1721992ENGINIST16531 C35400003021723002000003 p.94-0116362PAEconometric reviewsUSA001A02H02GEstimateur convergentConsistent estimatorEstimador convergenteMaximum vraisemblanceMaximum likelihoodMaxima verosimilitudRobustesse testTest robustnessRobustez pruebaNormalité asymptotiqueAsymptotic normalityNormalidad asintóticaSimulation statistiqueStatistical simulationSimulación estadísticaModèle dynamiqueDynamic modelModelo dinámicoMultiplicateur LagrangeLagrange multiplierMultiplicador LagrangeVolatilitéVolatilityVolatibilidadModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoModèle GARCHINCQuasi vraisemblanceCDQuasi likelihoodCD055 0031-4005PEDIAUPediatr. : (Evanst.)915Cost-effectiveness of screening and cryotherapy for threshold retinopathy of prematurityJAVITT (J.)DEI CAS (R.)YEN-PIN CHIANGGeorgetown univ. medical cent., cent. sightWashington DCUSA859-8661993ENGINIST6967354000037621850010000033 ref.93-0528872PAPediatrics : (Evanston)USABackground. Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is the leading cause of blindness among premature infants. A recent National Eye Institute-sponsored prospective, multicenter trial investigating the use of cryotherapy for treatment of ROP demonstrates a significant reduction in blindness and low vision for patients with sight-threatening (stage 3+) ROP. Method. A microsimulation model is presented to determine the cost-effectiveness of cryotherapy for ROP. Simulations are performed for three subpopulations of premature infants with birth weights 500 through 749 g, 750 through 999 g, and 1000 through 1249 g, and for three screening strategies-weekly, biweekly, and monthly002B27B11RétinopathieNML101RetinopathyNML101RetinopatíaNML101Prématurité02Prematurity02Prematuridad02Nouveau né06Newborn06Recién nacido06PrématuréL107PrematureL107PrematuroL107Cécité18Blindness18Ceguera18Prévention19Prevention19Prevención19Cryothérapie67Cryotherapy67Crioterapia67Dépistage68Medical screening68Descubrimiento68Traitement69Treatment69Aufbereiten69Tratamiento69Modèle PROPHETINC89Facteur risque94Risk factor94Factor riesgo94Coût99Costs99Kosten99Costo99Qualité vieQuality of lifeCalidad vidaHommeHumanHombreOeil pathologie08Eye disease08Ojo patología08Nouveau né pathologie09Newborn diseases09Recién nacido patología09Etude multicentrique95Multicenter study95Estudio multicéntrico95Etude statistique96Statistical study96Estudio estadístico96Aspect économique98Economic aspect98Aspecto económico98244 IMSIEKInt. j. model. simul.132«FIDME-PC»: forestry investment decisions made easy on personal computersPAYANDEH (B.)BASHAM (D.)Great lakes forestry cent., res. sci. computer systems analystSault Ste. Marie ON P6A 5M7CAN72-761993ENGINIST1969735400003777704005000002 ref.93-0491355PAInternational journal of modelling & simulationUSA002A33C01280Modèle simulationSimulation modelModelo simulaciónSimulation ordinateurComputer simulationElektronenrechnersimulationSimulación computadoraAide décisionDecision aidAyuda decisiónGestion forestièreForest managementAdministración forestalInvestissementInvestmentInvestitionenInversiónModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoMicroordinateurMicrocomputerKleinstrechnerMicroordenadorGestion automatiséeAssisted managementGestión automatizadaEconomie forestièreForest economicsEconomía forestalForesterieForestryCiencias forestales209 0020-7721IJSYA9Int. j. syst. sci.243The effects of market power on the stocks and prices of world coffeeSENGUPTA (J. K.)WANG (E. C.)Univ. California, dep. economicsSanta Barbara CA 93106USA1 aut.515-5281993ENGINIST15193354000036811610060000019 ref.93-0325556PAInternational journal of systems scienceGBRThe objective of this study is to explore the consequences of market power for optimal stockholding and price variations in the world coffee economy. Optimal storage decision rules which incorporate risk aversion under several market scenarios are considered. These generate a set of price and quantity series that can be compared with the historical data and to test the hypothesis proposed by Newbery that a monopolistic producer tends to undertake more storage than a competitive producer and hence price stability may increase in proportion to the dominant role played by the monopolist. Our study reveals that the world coffee market has been rather close to the competitive regime since the 1960s001D01A10CaféFXCoffeeFXCaféFXEconomie marchéMarket economyEconomía mercadoModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoEtude marchéMarket surveyEstudio mercadoMarché financierFinancial marketMercado financieroProductionProductionProduktionProducciónConsommationConsumptionVerbrauchConsumoMoyenne mobileMoving averagePromedio móvilGestion stockInventory controlAdministración depósitoPolitique optimaleOptimal policyPolítica óptimaAversion risqueRisk aversionAversión riesgoSimulationSimulationSimulationSimulaciónMarché monopolistiqueMonopolistic marketMercado monopolísticoStockholdingINCPrice variationINCQuasi competitionINCDuopoleCDDuopolyCD118 0898-1221CMAPDKComput. math. appl. : (1987)248-9Nonlinear simulation analysis in continuous time econometric modelsSystem-theoretic methods in economic modelling IIIPADOAN (P. C.)Univ. Rome, fac. economics00161 RomeITA57-651992ENGINIST1641135400003007078005000008 ref.93-0211726PAComputers & mathematics with applications : (1987)GBR001D01A10FinanceFinanceFinanzaModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoSystème continuContinuous systemSistema contínuoCapitalCapitalCapitalItalieNGItalyNGItalienNGItaliaNGSimulationSimulationSimulationSimulaciónNon linéaritéNonlinearityNo linealidadLiberalizationINCCapital movementINCEuropeNGEuropeNGEuropaNGEuropaNG062 0898-1221CMAPDKComput. math. appl. : (1987)248-9Systems of seemingly unrelated regression equations with time varying coefficients―an interplay of Kalman filtering, scoring, EM- and MINQUE-methodSystem-theoretic methods in economic modelling IIISCHNEIDER (W.)Univ. Kiel, fac. social sci., inst. statistics econometricsKielDEU1-161992ENGINIST16411354000030070780010000041 ref.93-0211722PAComputers & mathematics with applications : (1987)GBR001D02D05Modèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoEquation régressionRegression equationEcuación regresiónSystème paramètre variableTime- varying systemSistema parámetro variableEstimation paramètreParameter estimationEstimación parámetroMaximum vraisemblanceMaximum likelihoodMaxima verosimilitudFiltrage KalmanKalman filteringFiltrado KalmanAlgorithme EMEM algorithmAlgoritmo EMLissageSmoothingAlisamientoEstimation adaptativeAdaptive estimationEstimación adaptativaSimulationSimulationSimulationSimulaciónScoringINCMinque theoryINC062 0308-518X2411An evaluation of the REMI model for the South Coast Air Quality Management DistrictCASSING (S.)GIARRATANI (F.)1549-15641 fig., 7 tabl.1992ENGENGINIST97009 réf.531-93-01663PAEnvironment and planning AGBRPrésentation d'un modèle économétrique multirégional, et examen de ses performances, notamment en matière de prévision et d'évaluation des impacts économiques. La structure du modèle permet une bonne simulation des conséquences de diverses politiques économiques. Prévision de la structure détaillée de l'emploi dans la région de Los Angeles, année 1995531132IVModèle économétrique56301Econometric model56301Modèle multirégional56302Multiregional model56302Modèle56303Model56303Economie régionale56304Regional economy56304Ajustement56305Fitting56305Emploi56306Employment56306Structure de l'emploi56307Employment structure56307Branche industrielle56308Industrial branch56308Prévision56309Forecast;Prediction56309Production56310Production56310Simulation56311Simulation56311Etats-Unis56422United States56422California56423California56423Los Angeles56424Los Angeles56424U103!01,02,06,09!24,22U104!02,07,08,09!24,22U106!07,01,04,11!24,22U222!23!24,01,07,09179 0308-518X2410Imperfect competition in regional labour markets : a computable general equilibrium analysisHARRIGAN (F.)MACGREGOR (P. G.)SWALES (J. K.)DOURMASHKIN (N.)1463-14813 fig., 3 tabl.1992ENGENGINIST970028 réf.531-93-00942PAEnvironment and planning AGBRLes AA. examinent les effets induits de nature systémique d'une concurrence imparfaite sur le marché du travail écossais, à l'aide d'un modèle de simulation macro et micro-économique. Différents types de fermeture du marché sont considérés. L'accent est mis sur les salaires nominaux et réels. Sensibilité des résultats aux hypothèses sur le degré d'ouverture de l'économie et sur la flexibilité des techniques de production531133IVMarché du travail56301Labour market56301Economie régionale56302Regional economy56302Facteur de production56303Factor of production56303Concurrence56304Competition56304Salaire56305Wage;Salary56305Formation des prix56306Price fixing56306Marché56307Market56307Modèle économétrique56308Econometric model56308Equilibre économique56309Economic equilibrium56309Royaume-Uni56422United Kingdom56422Scotland56423Scotland56423U107!01,04,09,08!23U102!01,03,06,09!23U222!23!01,02,04,09097 0160-5682JORSDZJ. Oper. Res. Soc.4211Using spreadsheet simulation to generate a distribution of forecasts for electric power demandMUMFORD (L. G.)SCHULTZ (D. E.)TROUTT (M. D.)Big Rivers Electric Corp., eng. dep.Henderson KYUSA931-9391991ENGINIST5733354000011393860010000010 ref.92-0606568PA(The) Journal of the Operational Research SocietyGBR001D05I01HRéseau électriqueElectrical networkRed eléctricaPrévision demandeDemand forecastingPrevisión demandaDistribution chargeLoad distributionDistribución cargaGestion énergieEnergy managementGestión energíaPlanificationPlanningPlanungPlanificaciónModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoSimulationSimulationSimulationSimulaciónTableurSpreadsheetSpreadsheetOrdinateur personnelPersonal computerComputadora personalProgicielSoftware package323 0377-2217EJORDTEur. j. oper. res.613On simulation and optimization of macroeconometric modelsENGELS (J. R.)Fac. univ., dep. mathematics5000 NamurBEL357-3691992ENGINIST17566354000030266150090000036 ref.92-0593264PAEuropean journal of operational researchNLD001D01A02Modèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoModèle macroéconométriqueMacroeconometric modelModelo macroeconométricoOptimisationOptimizationOptimierungOptimizaciónOptimisation sans contrainteUnconstrained optimizationOptimización sin restricciónSimulationSimulationSimulationSimulaciónMéthode quasi NewtonQuasi Newton methodMétodo cuasi NewtonMéthode gradient réduitReduced gradient methodMétodo gradiente reducidoBound constraintINCMatrice hessienneCDHessian matrixCD322 0012-9682ECMTA7Econometrica604Estimation of a model of entry in the airline industryBERRY (S. T.)Yale univ., dep. economicsNew Haven CT 06520-1972USA889-9171992ENGINIST2069354000020104950070000019 ref.92-0553637PAEconometricaUSA001D01A14Gestion entrepriseFirm managementBetriebswirtschaftAdministración empresaTransport aérienAir transportationLufttransportTransporte aéreoOligopoleOligopolyOligopolioRentabilitéProfitabilityRentabilidadModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoSimulation statistiqueStatistical simulationSimulación estadisticaMaximum vraisemblanceMaximum likelihoodMaxima verosimilitud306 0885-8950ITPSEGIEEE trans. power syst.62Effectiveness of antithetic sampling and stratified sampling in Monte Carlo chronological production cost modelingMARNAY (C.)STRAUSS (T.)Lawrence Berkeley lab., utility planning policyBerkeley CAUSA669-6751991ENGINIST21015 A354000022265210290000021 ref.92-0074625PCAIEEE transactions on power systemsUSASampling error detracts from the usefulness of estimates of mean hourly marginal cost produced by Monte Carlo chronological production cost models. Variance reduction techniques commonly used in other Monte Carlo simulation applications can significantly improve the precision of estimates. Two such techniques, antithetic sampling and stratified sampling, are tested for a fictitious system. The number of iterations needed to reach a precision target falls significantly. The estimated savings in total computing time could exceed 50 percent for a full one-year forecast. Both techniques are easily implemented and should be used in Monte Carlo production costing efforts to estimate hourly marginal cost001D05I01HRéseau électriqueElectrical networkRed eléctricaModèle économétriqueEconometric modelModelo econométricoCoût énergieEnergy costEnergiekostenCoste energíaProduction énergiePower productionProducción energíaCoût marginalMarginal costCoste marginalEstimationEstimationBewertenEstimaciónMéthode Monte CarloMonte Carlo methodMonte Carlo MethodeMétodo Monte CarloEchantillonnageSamplingProbenahmeMuestreoPlanificationPlanningPlanungPlanificación124IEEE/PES 1990 Summer MeetingMinneapolis MN USA1990-07-15 0035-50544Economic structure and errors in multiregional input-output models: a commentMILLER (R.)475-4921990/10-12ENGSC. ECO./GRENOBLE7600617-92-00487PARicerche EconomicheITAStructure économique et erreurs dans les modèles multirégionaux d'entrée-sortie: commentaireL'analyse concerne le cadre d'étude proposé par VALI dans l'examen des erreurs générées par le modèle régional d'entrée-sortie, ainsi que ses résultats6170Ithéorie économique563modèle économétrique563modèle de simulation563économie régionale563254 0015-749XFOSCADFor. Sci.362A dynamic model of timber marketsBRAZEE (R.)MENDELSOHN (R.)255-2641990ENGINIST8566354000008988590050000018 ref.91-0112344PAForest scienceUSAUn modèle théorique de la dynamique du marché des bois, fonction de la demande, de la croissance de la forêt et du loyer foncier, est développé. Un processus d'ajustement dans le temps à la suite de changements imprévus de la demande est analysé. Ce processus d'ajustement, prenant en compte les conséquences à court et long terme des changements de conditions économiques, est caractérisé par une variation brusque du prix initial, suivi d'une période relative longue d'évolution des prix, de l'âge de récolte et des taux de récolte. Cette adaptation à l'évolution de la demande permet un retour à un état d'équilibre, caractérisé par une forêt pleinement contrôlée, gérée selon les rotations de Faustmann. Une simulation est effectuée avec une forêt hypothétique de Pinus taeda002A33A01280BoisMarché économiqueModèle dynamiqueApprovisionnementEquilibre marchéRotationModèle mathématiqueModèle économétriqueEtude économiqueFilière boisModèle FaustmannINCWoodEconomic marketDynamic modelSupplyMarket equilibriumRotationMathematical modelEconometric modelEconomic studyWood lineMaderaMercado económicoModelo dinámicoAprovisionamientoEquilibrio mercadoRotaciónModelo matemáticoModelo econométricoEstudio económico036 0140-9883EECODREnergy econ.114Spatially analysing the impact of a &dquot;no new nukes&dquot; policy on European natural gas marketsDAHL (C.)Louisiana state univ., dep. economicsBaton Rouge LAUSAA11011000262-2741989ENGIFPBSEEGCNRS18231000023 ref.91-0097136PAEnergy economicsGBRBSEEGDéveloppement de modèles économétriques pour prévoir l'état des marchés pétroliers et gaziers en Europe en l'an 2000, en présence ou non d'un moratoire sur l'énergie nucléaire qui consisterait en une absence totale de construction de centrale nucléaire après 1990. Les centrales nucléaires qui auraient dues être construites seraient alors remplacées par installations de production d'énergie électrique fonctionnant au gaz naturel001D06A01A230Economie pétrolièreEconomie gazièreMarchéPrévisionEnergie nucléaireEurope OuestModèle économétriqueSimulation numériqueAn 2000INCMoratoireCDOil economyGas economyMarketsForecastingNuclear energyWestern EuropeEconometric modelDigital simulationMoratoriumCDEconomía petroleraEconomía gasMercadoPrevisiónEnergía nuclearEuropa del OesteModelo econométricoSimulación numéricaPM01!03,26,56,05PM02!03,26,56,05PG06!01,02,03,26,56,05EuropeEuropeEuropa94516 0363-907XIJERDNInt. j. energy res.136The economic effects of a natural resource discovery: a theoretical and simulation exerciseHARVIE (C.)Univ. Wollongong, dep. economicsWollongong N.S.W. 2500AUSA11011000701-7161989ENGCNRS17698000010 ref.91-0058171PAInternational journal of energy researchGBREtude comparative des modèles de type Dornbusch, développés par Buiter-Miller, Eastwood-Venables et Neary-Van Wijnberger lors de l'étude des conséquences macro-économiques à court et à long terme, de la découverte d'une ressource énergétique. Simulation des processus d'ajustement dynamique mis en jeu lors de la découverte d'un champ de pétrole, à l'aide des modèles Eastwood-Venables et Neary-Van Wijnberger001D06A01A230Economie énergieDécouverteRessource énergétiqueChamp pétroleAjustementMarchéLong termeCourt termeAnalyse macroéconomiqueModèle économétriqueEtude comparativeModèle DornbuschINCModèle Eastwood-VenablesINCModèle Neary Van WijnbergenINCBuiter MillerINCEnergy economyDiscoveriesEnergy resourcesOil fieldFittingMarketsLong termShort termMacroeconomic analysisEconometric modelComparative studyEconomía energíaDescubiertaRecurso energéticoCampo petróleoAjusteMercadoLargo plazoCorto plazoAnálisis macroeconómicoModelo econométricoEstudio comparativoPM01!03,02,09,10952 0304-4076J. econom.402Misspecification tests in econometrics based on ranksMCCABE (B. P. M.)Univ. LeedsLeeds LS2 9JTGBRA11011000261-2781989ENGCNRS16460000019 ref.91-0050444PAJournal of EconometricsNLD001A02D14Statistique rangModèle économétriqueRégressionEcartSimulation statistiqueRobustesse testMauvaise spécificationINCEchangeabilitéINCRank statisticsEconometric modelRegressionDeviationStatistical simulationTest robustnessEstadística rangoModelo econométricoRegresiónDesviaciónSimulación estadisticaRobustez prueba942NBS 0360-5442ENEYDSEnergy (Oxf.)1412Navy fuel production during a middle east political disruptionHADDER (G. R.)DAS (S.)LEIBY (P. N.)LEE (R.)DAVIS (R. M.)Oak Ridge national lab., energy div.Oak Ridge TN 37831USAA11011000965-9661989ENGCNRS1680900004 ref.90-0343533PAEnergy (Oxford)USAUtilisation d'un modèle économétrique et de deux modèles de programmation linéaire pour simuler la production de carburéacteur JP-5 et de diesel marin F-76 pour la Marine de guerre américaine, en cas de conflit politique au Moyen-Orient en 1995. Celui-ci se traduirait par une diminution de 50% du pétrole exporté par la Libye, l'Algérie et les pays du Golfe Persique et par une production maximale des autres pays membres de l'OPEP230A01A01001D06A01Economie énergieCapacité productionCarburéacteurFuel oil marineConflitMoyen OrientModèle économétriqueProgrammation linéaireEtats UnisCarburéacteur JP-5INCFuel oil F-76INCPetroleum Allocation ModelINCModèle PALINCRefinery Yield ModelINCOil Market Simulation ModelINCEnergy economyProduction capacityJet fuelMarine fuel oilConflictMiddle eastEconometric modelLinear programmingUnited StatesEconomía energíaCapacidad producciónCarburante motor chorroFuel oil marinoConflictoOriente MedioModelo econométricoProgramación linealEstados UnidosPM01!03,04,02,05,06PG09!03,04,02,05,06AsieAmérique du NordAmériqueAsiaNorth AmericaAmericaAsiaAmerica del norteAmerica013 0041-0683TENCA4Traffic eng. control3012Traffic models and road transport informatics (RTI) systemsSTERGIOU (B.)STATHOPOULOS (A.)Drive, cent. officeBrussels 1040BELA11011000581-5861989ENGCNRS13729000013 ref.90-0098102PATraffic Engineering and ControlGBRPrésentation d'axes de recherche du programme DRIVE de la CEE, ayant l'objectif d'introduire dans les systèmes de transport les systèmes RTI; l'article est focalisé sur les implications de ces systèmes pour la modélisation des transports et la stimulation de l'écoulement du trafic (problèmes du rapport entre macrosimulation et microsimulation du comportement du conducteur).001D15CTransport routierAssistance ordinateurProgramme rechercheCEEModélisationEcoulement traficConduite véhiculeMicrosimulationINCRoad transportationComputer aidResearch programEECModelingTraffic flowVehicle drivingTransporte por carreteraAsistencia ordenadorPrograma investigaciónCEEModelizaciónFlujo tráficoConducción vehículo006 The economic impact of oil prices on exploration and production activitiesGARCIA-SINERIZ (B.)Repsol ExplorationESPA1101100012-261988ENG Graham & TrotmanLondonEuropean Communities symposium. 3Luxembourg1988-03-22IFPB16192160090-0005698CALUXB16192Développement d'un modèle mathématique de simulation, destiné à étudier l'influence du prix du pétrole sur les activités de prospection et de développement des gisements de gaz et de pétrole230B02B01ProspectionDéveloppementChamp gazChamp pétrolePrixPétrole brutForageExplorationExploitationModèle économétriqueProspectingDevelopmentGas fieldOil fieldPriceCrude oilDrillingExplorationExploitationEconometric modelProspecciónDesarrolloCampo gasCampo petróleoPrecioPetróleo brutoSondeoExploraciónExplotaciónModelo econométricoPM03,08!10,06,05PM04,08!10,06,05PM03,09!10,06,05PM04,09!10,06,0593716 0013-5704AWIFA7Angew. Inform.3011Evolution and adaptation in a stochastic market model. An application of the simulation language ESLOHLENDORF (G.)STAHLECKER (P.)Univ. Hannover, Inst. InformatikHannover 3000DEUA11011000491-4941988ENGGERCNRS289000006 ref.89-0253283PAAngewandte InformatikDEU001D02B08Modèle économétriqueModèle stochastiqueModélisationSimulationLangage simulationESLINCEconometric modelStochastic modelModelingSimulationSimulation languageModelo econométricoModelo estocásticoModelizaciónSimulaciónLenguaje simulaciónPM10!11,06850 0548-1414Neft. gazov. prom. (Kiev, 1960)3SEMIKHODSKIJ (G. E.)1-41988RUSCNRS8497IFPBIBLR4099003 ref.89-0023166PANeftjanaja i gazovaja promyšlennost (Kiev. 1960)SUNModèles de formation des prix des travaux de prospection géologiques de pétrole et de gaz dans la nouvelle situation économiquePricing models for oil and gas geological prospection in the new economic conditionsBIBLR10Etude sur l'élaboration d'une approche méthodologique unique de la planification de tout le système des indices d'autonomie financière pour les travaux de prospection géologiques de gaz et de pétrole. Dans le cadre de cette conception est étudié le problème de la simulation des prix de la production principale, le rapport des prix centralisés et du montant du détail estimatif du marché; leurs modèles possibles et les méthodes de leur équilibrage en tenant compte des conditions variables géologiques et géographiques et des normes établies de formation des fonds de l'entreprise230B02B02A1Prospection géologiquePétroleGazAnalyse économiqueModèle économétriqueSimulationDétermination prixPlanificationInvestissementGeological prospectingPetroleumGasesEconomic analysisEconometric modelSimulationPrice determinationPlanningInvestmentProspección geológicaPetróleoGasAnálisis económicoModelo econométricoSimulaciónDeterminación precioPlanificaciónInversiónPM01!04,07,0583116 0177-0667Eng. with comput.41-2Proceedings/Symposium on engineering data base management: ASME computers in engineering conference, New York, NY, August 11-12, 1987FULTON (R. E.) Ed.Georgia inst. technologyAtlanta GAUSAA1201X000American Society of Mechanical Engineers, Data Base Committeepatr.1988ENG105 p.CNRS207250000dissem.88-0393900PCMEngineering with computersUSALes communications portent sur les capacités, les résultats et le potentiel des techniques de gestion des bases de données dans le domaine de l'ingéniérie. Les besoins sont examinés en détail ainsi que des approches visant à une intégration avec la CAO et la GAO. Le développement de base de données, l'intégration d'analyses multidisciplinaires et la gestion de données économétriques sont aussi abordées001D02B07DCongrèsConception assistéeAssistance ordinateurBase connaissanceIntelligence artificielleConception ingéniérieConstruction mécaniqueSimulationInformation techniqueArchitecture systèmeContrôleBase donnée relationnelleRobotiqueTraitement informationSystème gestion base donnéeImplémentationCoûtPerformanceModèle input outputModèle économétriqueTechnologieEtat actuelRecherche développementApplication industrielleUSAFINCIDEFINCCADINCCAMINCCongressComputer aided designComputer aidKnowledge baseArtificial intelligenceEngineering designMechanical engineeringSimulationTechnical informationSystem architectureCheckRelational databaseRoboticsInformation processingData base management systemImplementationCostsPerformanceInput output modelEconometric modelTechnologyState of the artResearch and developmentIndustrial applicationCongresoConcepción asistidaAsistencia ordenadorBase conocimientoInteligencia artificialConcepción ingenieríaConstrucción mecánicaSimulaciónInformación técnicaArquitectura sistemaControlBase relacional datoRobóticaProcesamiento informaciónSistema gestión base datosEjecuciónCostoRendimientoModelo entrada salidaModelo econométricoTecnologíaEstado actualInvestigación desarrolloAplicación industrialPM02!16,24,23PM16!02,25,23837Symposium on engineering data base management. ASME computers in engineering conferenceNew York NY1987-08-11 0360-5442Energy (Oxf.)131Refinery investment and naval fuel productionHADDER (G. R.)DAS (S.)DAVIS (R. M.)Oak Ridge national lab.Oak Ridge TN 37831USAA1101100045-561988ENGCNRS16809000011 ref.88-0120721PAEnergy (Oxford)USALes mouvements globaux des produits pétroliers - approvisionnement en pétrole brut et production de produits raffinés - sont estimés à l'aide du modèle PAL (Petroleum Allocation). Ces données sont introduites dans le modèle Refinery Yield (RYM) de simulation des opérations de raffinage. Ces deux modèles sont utilisés pour prévoir les investissements dans les activités de raffinage de la côte Ouest et du golfe du Texas et la production des carburants marins en 1990 et 1995230A01B02230B02E03001D06A01Economie pétrolièreModèle économétriqueEtats UnisInvestissementRaffinageCapacité productionCarburantTransport maritimeCarburéacteur1990INC1995INCModèle PALINCModèle RYMINCOil economyEconometric modelUnited StatesInvestmentRefiningProduction capacityMotor fuelMaritime transportationJet fuelEconomía petroleraModelo econométricoEstados UnidosInversiónRefinaciónCapacidad producciónCarburanteTransporte marítimoCarburante motor chorroPM01!02,06,07,03PM07!06,02,03PG03!06,07,02Amérique du NordAmériqueNorth AmericaAmericaAmerica del norteAmerica801 0144-5987EEEXDUEnergy explor. exploit.52Energy policy of industrialized countries: The austrian experience evaluated within an empirical frameworkWIRL (F.)Univ. TechnologyViennaAUTA11011000141-1561987ENGIFPPC773CNRS1960516006 ref.87-0425848PAEnergy exploration & exploitationGBRPC773Analyse de la politique énergétique des pays industrialisés, et en particulier de l'Autriche, en utilisant un modèle de simulation économétrique de la consommation et des approvisionnements230A01A001D06A01Economie énergiePays industrialiséPétroleCharbonConsommationProductionModèle simulationAutricheModèle économétriqueApprovisionnementEtude marchéEnergy economyIndustrialized countryPetroleumCoalConsumptionProductionSimulation modelAustriaEconometric modelSupplyMarket surveyEconomía energíaPaís industrializadoPetróleoCarbonConsumoProduccionModelo simulaciónAustriaModelo econométricoAprovisionamientoEstudio mercadoPM01!02,03,04PG08!01,09,03,04EuropeEuropeEuropa73816 0251-415XOil Arab coop.131IBRAHIM (I. B.)Organization Arab petroleum exporting countriesSafat 13066KWTA1101100033-571987ARAENGCNRS17795000012 ref.87-0394868PAOil and Arab cooperationKWTL'impact de la baisse du prix du pétrole sur les économies des pays arabesThe impact of oil price decline on the economies of the Arab countriesLes simulations réalisées à l'aide de modèles économétriques montrent que la croissance négative qu'ont connu les principaux pays exportateurs de pétrole de 1980 à 1985 va se poursuivre au cours des années 1985-1990. Pour ceux pour lesquels le choc a été moins sévère, la croissance économique va marquer une pause230A01A230A01B02PétrolePrixDiminutionEconomie pétrolièreEconomiePéninsule ArabiqueCroissance économiqueModèle économétriqueSimulation1980-1990INCPetroleumPriceDecreaseOil economyEconomyArabian PeninsulaEconomic developmentEconometric modelSimulationPetróleoPrecioDisminucionEconomía petroleraEconomiaPenínsula arábicaCrecimiento económicoModelo econométricoSimulacionPM04!07,09,06,26PG06!04,07,09,26AsieAsiaAsia709 0378-4754Math. comput. simul.284MULTSIM: a model for simulate vehicular traffic on multi-lane arterial roadsGIPPS (P. G.)CSIRO, div. building res.Highett Victoria 3190USAA11011000291-2951986ENGCNRS133100006 ref.87-0119533PAMathematics and computers in simulationNLDConception du modèle MUTSIM comme instrument d'étude des influences des variations dans l'environnement du déplacement sur l'écoulement du trafic. Le programme standard réalise une microsimulation du trafic dans laquelle les conducteurs individuels ont des objectifs et des contraintes déterminés001D15CEcoulement traficRoute grande circulationTrafic routierSimulationModèle MUTSIMINCTraffic flowMain roadRoad trafficSimulationFlujo tráficoCarretera gran circulaciónTráfico carreteraSimulacionPM03!01,02,04641 0191-2615Transp. res., Part B: methodol.194Forecasting automobile demand using disaggregate choice modelsBERKOVEC (J.)Univ. Virginia, dep. economics315-3291985ENGCNRS990012 ref.86-0067573PATransportation research. Part B: methodologicalGBROn présente un modèle de simulation du marché automobile américain qui combine un modèle désagrégé et un modèle économétrique selon une approche similaire à celles de Manski (1980) et Manski et Sherman (1980)001D15BModèle désagrégéModèle économétriqueAutomobileDemande transportPrévisionDisaggregate demand modelEconometric modelAutomobileTransport demandForecastingPM04!05,06,01,02538 0191-2615Transp. res., Part B: methodol.194An econometric model of vehicle use in the household sectorHENSHER (D. A.)Macquarie univ., school economic financial studies303-3131985ENGCNRS99008 ref.86-0067572PATransportation research. Part B: methodologicalGBROn présente une méthode économétrique pour identifier les influences de l'utilisation domestique des véhicules. Elle diffère d'études précédentes au sens que l'utilisation de chaque véhicule dépend de façon endogène de l'utilisation des autres véhicules du ménage, ainsi que le kilométrage, le coût du carburant au kilomètre et l'efficacité à long terme du carburant001D15CVéhicule routierModèle économétriqueMénageUtilisationSimulationConservation énergieRoad vehicleEconometric modelHomeholdUseSimulationEnergy conservationUtilizacionPM01!04,03,05,02538 Modèle interindustriel-énergétique de long terme (M.I.E.L.)CAPROS (P.)LADOUX (N.)19-511985FRE EconomicaAssociation d'économétrie appliquée. Colloque international. 2CNRS000086-0061039CAFRALong term interindustrial energy model (M.I.E.L.)Description du modèle M.I.E.L. de simulation macroéconomique estimé sur la base des données des séries de la Comptabilité Nationale Française pour la période 1959-1979. Utilisations possibles de celui-ci dans le domaine de l'énergie230A01B01Economie énergieSimulationModèle économétriqueLong termeMonographieFranceModèle économétrique MIELEnergy economySimulationEconometric modelLong termMonographsFranceLargo plazoFranciaPM01!02,53,05,06PG06!01,53,04,05532 0090-8347Energy syst. policy83Impacts of energy price increases on the well-being of farmers and consumersCHRISTENSEN (D. A.)HEADY (E. O.)Soil conservation service, national tech. cent.293-3121984ENGCNRS00009 ref.84-0237034PAEnergy Systems and PolicyUSAUtilisation du modèle économétrique de simulation de l'agriculture nationale (NAES) pour étudier l'influence de 5 scénarios d'évolution des prix du carburant diesel de 1980 à 2000 sur la production et les prix des produits alimentaires aux Etats-Unis230A01B02001D06A01Oil economyEconomie pétrolièrePricePrixDiesel fuelCarburant dieselIncreaseAugmentationAgricultureAgricultureFoodstuffProduit alimentaireProductionProductionForecastingPrévisionSimulationSimulationEconometric modelModèle économétriqueUnited StatesEtats UnisModèle NAESPériode 1980-2000Impact agriculturePM01!02,03,62,11PG11!01,03,02,62426