1/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0370041 INIST ET : Shared Roadway Implementation Guidance AU : ROBERTSON (James); GENE HAWKINS (H.) AF : Texas A&M Transportation Institute, Texas A&M Univ. System, 3135 TAMU/College Station, TX 77843-3135/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Zachry Dept. of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M Univ., 3136 TAMU/College Station, TX 77843-3136/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2013; Vol. 139; No. 8; Pp. 833-839; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Shared roadways have automobiles and bicycles operating in the same traveled way, which may negatively affect traffic operations; there is limited guidance on appropriate shared roadway implementation. To provide guidance on shared roadway implementation, this paper uses microsimulation models and a sensitivity analysis to evaluate automobile quality of service on shared roadways. After the sensitivity analysis, automobile quality of service is compared to bicycle quality of service on shared roadways. Using the results of the sensitivity analysis and comparison, guidance is provided on the implementation of shared roadways. This study finds that outside lane width and bicycle volume affect automobile quality of service on shared roadways. Additionally, higher values for unsignalized access points per kilometer (per mile), heavy vehicle percent, and signalized intersection crossing distance result in bicycle quality of service being less than automobile quality of service. Using this study's findings, shared roadway implementation guidance is provided for four-lane divided urban street segments. Future research should develop shared roadway implementation guidance using microsimulation models calibrated to observed data. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B; 001D14O02; 295 FD : Trafic routier urbain; Automobile; Bicyclette; Gestion trafic; Partage; Rue; Analyse donnée; Qualité service; Méthodologie; Modèle simulation; Etude comparative; Recommandation ED : Urban road traffic; Motor car; Bicycle; Traffic management; Sharing; Street; Data analysis; Service quality; Methodology; Simulation model; Comparative study; Recommendation SD : Tráfico vial urbano; Automóvil; Bicicleta; Gestión tráfico; Partición; Calle; Análisis datos; Calidad servicio; Metodología; Modelo simulación; Estudio comparativo; Recomendación LO : INIST-572E.354000503656190070 2/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0362116 INIST ET : Effect of Road Narrowing on Junction Capacity Using Microsimulation AU : YOUSIF (Saad); ALTERAWI (Mohammed); HENSON (Ralph R.) AF : Univ. of Salford/Manchester M5 4WT/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2013; Vol. 139; No. 6; Pp. 574-584; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Traffic-calming measures have been widely used in urban areas, aiming sometimes to reduce vehicle flow rates but primarily to reduce speed and, hence, the number and severity of traffic accidents. The one-way priority working road narrowing (throttle) is a widely used traffic-calming technique. However, installation of such a measure close to a junction can severely affect the operation and level of service, especially for the major road movements. There is a lack of research, guidance, and design standards to inform the effective deployment of such a measure. This paper starts by providing a summary of the terms and standards used in practice for traffic-calming measures, primarily focusing on the use of throttles. The paper aims to investigate the relationship between throttle spacing (X) from a priority junction and the &dquot;major-to-major movement&dquot; driver's delay for different flow levels using the S-Paramics microsimulation model. The model was calibrated and validated with field data collected from a selected site within Greater Manchester for two separate days by using camcorders. Cooperative behavior between drivers (i.e., those with priority who gave way to others) was noticed and analyzed accordingly. Different scenarios were used to test the effects on delays and queues for various parameters including throttle spacing (X), major-arms flow level, and reversing the direction of priority. The findings show that there is a direct relationship between throttle spacing (X) and the level of delay for traffic on the major arms of the junction. It is also shown that for a minor arm with two-way flow level of up to 500 vehicles per hour (veh/h), the throttle spacing should be at least 30 m. Once the flow level reaches 700 veh/h, the spacing should be at least 50 m, whereas for flow levels of 800 veh/h, the spacing should be at least 100 meters. Alternatively, consideration should be given to reversing the priority given to traffic by using MJTP (major-arm traffic has priority) operation rather than MNTP (minor-arm traffic has priority) when less throttle spacing (X) is required, to minimize delays to traffic on the major arms. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Gestion trafic; Priorité; Carrefour routier; Rétrécissement; Collecte donnée; Modèle simulation; Capacité; Véhicule routier; Mesure sécurité; Limitation vitesse; Modélisation; Comportement; Application; Recommandation ED : Road traffic; Traffic management; Priority; Road junction; Narrowing; Data gathering; Simulation model; Capacity; Road vehicle; Safety measure; Speed limit; Modeling; Behavior; Application; Recommendation SD : Tráfico carretera; Gestión tráfico; Prioridad; Cruce carretera; Estrechamiento; Recolección dato; Modelo simulación; Capacidad; Vehículo caminero; Medida seguridad; Limitación velocidad; Modelización; Conducta; Aplicación; Recomendación LO : INIST-572E.354000506501680040 3/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0347012 INIST ET : Modelling the Efficiency of Local Versus Central Provision of Intravenous Thrombolysis After Acute Ischemic Stroke AU : MCMEEKIN (Peter); GRAY (Jo); FORD (Gary A.); RODGERS (Helen); PRICE (Christopher I.) AF : Institute of Health and Society, Newcastle University/Newcastle Upon Tyne/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut.); Institute for Ageing and Health (Stroke Research Group), Newcastle University/Newcastle Upon Tyne/Royaume-Uni (3 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Stroke : (1970); ISSN 0039-2499; Coden SJCCA7; Etats-Unis; Da. 2013; Vol. 44; No. 11; Pp. 3114-3119; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background and Purpose-Prehospital redirection of stroke patients to a regional center is used as a strategy to maximize the provision of intravenous thrombolysis. We developed a model to quantify the benefit of redirection away from local services that were already providing thrombolysis. Methods-A microsimulation using hospital and ambulance data from consecutive emergency admissions to 10 local acute stroke units estimated the effect of redirection to 2 regional neuroscience centers. Modeled outcomes reflected additional journey time and accuracy of stroke identification in the prehospital phase, and the relative efficiency of patient selection and door-needle time for each local site compared with the nearest regional neuroscience center. Results-Thrombolysis was received by 223/1884 emergency admissions. Based on observed site performance, 68 additional patients would have been treated after theoretical redirection of 1269 true positive cases and 363 stroke mimics to the neuroscience center. Over 5 years redirection of this cohort generated 12.6 quality-adjusted life years at a marginal cost of £6730 ($10320, <euro sign>8347). The average additional cost of a quality-adjusted life year gain was £534 ($819, <euro sign>673). Conclusions-Under these specific circumstances, redirection would have improved outcomes from thrombolysis at little additional cost. CC : 002B17C; 002B02G FD : Ramollissement cérébral; Accident cérébrovasculaire; Ischémie de l'encéphale; Pathologie du système nerveux; Pathologie cérébrovasculaire; Etude comparative; Voie intraveineuse; Traitement FG : Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire; Pathologie de l'encéphale; Pathologie du système nerveux central; Pathologie des vaisseaux sanguins ED : Cerebral infarction; Stroke; Brain ischemia; Nervous system diseases; Cerebrovascular disease; Comparative study; Intravenous administration; Treatment EG : Cardiovascular disease; Cerebral disorder; Central nervous system disease; Vascular disease SD : Infarto cerebral; Accidente cerebrovascular; Isquemia encéfalo; Sistema nervioso patología; Vaso sanguíneo encéfalo patología; Estudio comparativo; Vía intravenosa; Tratamiento LO : INIST-4004.354000501597560210 4/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0315981 INIST ET : Optimization of traffic signal timings based on surrogate measures of safety AU : STEVANOVIC (Aleksandar); STEVANOVIC (Jelka); KERGAYE (Cameron); KARLAFTIS (Matthew G.) AF : Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatics Engineering, Florida Atlantic University, 777 Glades Rd., Bldg. 36, Rm. 225/Boca Raton, FL 33431/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Utah Department of Transportation, P.O. Box 148410/Salt Lake City, UT 84114/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part C, Emerging technologies; ISSN 0968-090X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2013; Vol. 32; Pp. 159-178; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : One way to improve safety of signalized arterials is to optimize signal timings. Historically, signal retiming tools were used to reduce traffic delay and stops and other measures of traffic efficiency. The concept of optimizing signal timings specifically to improve safety metrics, or their surrogate measures, is not common in current signal timing optimization practice. This study advocates a fresh approach to integrating VISSIM microsimulation software, Surrogate Safety Assessment Model, and VISSIM-based Genetic Algorithm for Optimization of Signal Timings to reduce surrogate measures of safety and thereby reduce risks of potential real-world crashes. In addition, a multiple-objective genetic algorithm is implemented to identify the optimal compromise between two competing objectives: surrogate safety and traffic efficiency. A 12-intersection corridor on Glades Road in Boca Raton and two smaller synthetic network served as case studies. Optimized signal timings delivered a solution that balanced both safety and efficiency. When compared to initial signal timings the estimated number of conflicts was reduced by 7%. In addition, when compared to signal timings optimized for efficiency the estimated number of conflicts was reduced by 9% without a significant loss of efficiency (∼1%). The study also approximated a Pareto Front of conflicts and throughput which may be instrumental when trading off (surrogate) safety for efficiency in the development of signal timing plans. Most of the improvements came at the expense of worsening efficiency of traffic streams which shows an inevitable necessity for trade-off between efficiency and safety. A strong relationship between increase in cycle length and reduction of vehicular conflicts has been observed. Further investigation is needed to validate the approach and perform detailed analysis of impacts of signal timings on vehicular conflicts. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Sécurité trafic; Timing; Feu signalisation; Mesure sécurité; Optimisation; Programmation multiobjectif; Algorithme évolutionniste; Simulation; Expérimentation; Evaluation performance ED : Road traffic; Traffic safety; Timing; Traffic lights; Safety measure; Optimization; Multiobjective programming; Evolutionary algorithm; Simulation; Experimentation; Performance evaluation SD : Tráfico carretera; Seguridad tráfico; Timing; Semáforo; Medida seguridad; Optimización; Programación multiobjetivo; Algoritmo evoluciónista; Simulación; Experimentación; Evaluación prestación LO : INIST-12377C.354000509066850120 5/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0305148 INIST ET : Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Women With Familial Risk for Breast Cancer With Magnetic Resonance Imaging AU : SAADATMAND (Sepideh); TILANUS-LINTHORST (Madeleine M. A.); RUTGERS (Emiel J. T.); HOOGERBRUGGE (Nicoline); OOSTERWIJK (Jan C.); TOLLENAAR (Rob A. E. M.); HOONING (Maartje); LOO (Claudette E.); OBDEIJN (Inge-Marie); HEIJNSDIJK (Eveline A. M.); DE KONING (Harry J.) AF : Department of Surgery, Erasmus Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut.); Department of Radiology, Erasmus Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (9 aut.); Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (10 aut., 11 aut.); Department of Surgery, the Netherlands Cancer Institute, Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital/Amsterdam/Pays-Bas (3 aut.); Department of Human Genetics, Radboud University Medical Center/Nijmegen/Pays-Bas (4 aut.); Department of Genetics, University Medical Center, Groningen University/Groningen/Pays-Bas (5 aut.); Department of Surgery, Leiden University Medical Center/Leiden/Pays-Bas (6 aut.); Department of Medical Oncology, Erasmus Medical Center-Daniel den Hoed Cancer Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (7 aut.); Department of Radiology, the Netherlands Cancer Institute, Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital/Amsterdam/Pays-Bas (8 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of the National Cancer Institute; ISSN 0027-8874; Etats-Unis; Da. 2013; Vol. 105; No. 17; Pp. 1314-1321; Bibl. 44 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background To reduce mortality, women with a family history of breast cancer are often screened with mammography before age 50 years. Additional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) improves sensitivity and is cost-effective for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. However, for women with a family history without a proven mutation, cost-effectiveness is unclear. Methods We evaluated data of the largest prospective MRI screening study (MRISC). Between 1999 and 2007, 1597 women (8370 woman-years at risk) aged 25 to 70 years with an estimated cumulative lifetime risk of 15% to 50% for breast cancer were screened with clinical breast examination every 6 months and with annual mammography and MRI. We calculated the cost per detected and treated breast cancer. After incorporating MRISC data into a microsimulation screening analysis model (MISCAN), different schemes were evaluated, and cost per life-year gained (LYG) was estimated in comparison with the Dutch nationwide breast cancer screening program (biennial mammography from age 50 to 75 years). All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Forty-seven breast cancers (9 ductal carcinoma in situ) were detected. Screening with additional MRI costs $123 672 (<euro sign>93 639) per detected breast cancer. In increasing age-cohorts, costs per detected and treated breast cancer decreased, but, unexpectedly, the percentage of MRI-only detected cancers increased. Screening under the MRISC-scheme from age 35 to 50 years was estimated to reduce breast cancer mortality by 25% at $134 932 (<euro sign>102 164) per LYG (3.5% discounting) compared with 17% mortality reduction at $54 665 (<euro sign>41 390) per LYG with mammography only. Conclusions Screening with MRI may improve survival for women with familial risk for breast cancer but is expensive, especially in the youngest age categories. CC : 002B04C; 002B20E02 FD : Cancer du sein; Analyse coût efficacité; Economie santé; Imagerie RMN; Dépistage; Antécédent; Femelle; Adulte; Histoire familiale; Etats-Unis; Facteur risque; Epidémiologie; Cancérologie FG : Homme; Amérique du Nord; Amérique; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Pathologie de la glande mammaire; Pathologie du sein; Imagerie médicale; Santé publique ED : Breast cancer; Cost efficiency analysis; Health economy; Nuclear magnetic resonance imaging; Medical screening; Antecedent; Female; Adult; Family story; United States; Risk factor; Epidemiology; Cancerology EG : Human; North America; America; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Mammary gland diseases; Breast disease; Medical imagery; Public health SD : Cáncer del pecho; Análisis costo eficacia; Economía salud; Imaginería RMN; Descubrimiento; Antecedente; Hembra; Adulto; Historia familiar; Estados Unidos; Factor riesgo; Epidemiología; Cancerología LO : INIST-3364.354000501544840100 6/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0292357 INIST FT : Redistribution des revenus opérée par l'assurance maladie entre groupes d'âge et groupes sociaux ET : (Health Care Insurance in France: Its impact on income distribution between age and social groups) AU : FOURCADE (N.); DUVAL (J.); LARDELLIER (R.) AF : Direction de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiques (Drees), ministère des Affaires Sociales et de la Santé, 14, avenue Duquesne/75350 Paris 07 SP/France (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Revue d'épidémiologie et de santé publique; ISSN 0398-7620; France; Da. 2013; Vol. 61; No. AOUT SUP3; S170-S175; Abs. anglais; Bibl. 8 ref. LA : Français FA : Ces travaux, reposant sur des modèles de microsimulation, visent à mesurer les impacts redistributifs des financements et prestations des assurances maladie obligatoire et complémentaire (AMO/C). Ils contribuent à éclairer les débats sur les rôles respectifs des organismes complémentaires et de l'AMO dans la prise en charge des dépenses de santé, rappelant les effets différenciés de leurs interventions. L'analyse montre que les logiques de l'AMO permettent notamment aux plus modestes et aux retraités un meilleur accès aux soins que celui qu'ils auraient dans un système d'assurances privées fonctionnant selon une logique de tarification au risque. Les ménages modestes ont des contributions financières à l'AMO plus faibles (progressivité des prélèvements) et une prise en charge de leurs dépenses de santé légèrement plus élevée du fait d'un état de santé moyen plus dégradé et d'une structure de consommation tournée vers les soins mieux remboursés. Les retraités, à faibles contributions, ont aussi en moyenne les dépenses de soins les plus élevées. CC : 002B30A11 FD : Sociologie; Santé publique; Déterminant; Assurance maladie; Protection sociale; Groupe social; Age; Soin; France; Revenu économique; Distribution FG : Europe ED : Sociology; Public health; Determinant; Health insurance; Welfare aids; Social group; Age; Care; France; Income; Distribution EG : Europe SD : Sociología; Salud pública; Determinante; Seguro enfermedad; Protección social; Grupo social; Edad; Cuidado; Francia; Renta; Distribución LO : INIST-7341.354000503676490080 7/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0287383 INIST ET : A combined method to forecast and estimate traffic demand in urban networks AU : POHLMANN (Tobias); FRIEDRICH (Bernhard); BUSCH (Fritz) AF : Institute of Transportation and Urban Planning, Technische Universität Carolo-Wilhelmina zu Braunschweig, Rebenring 31/38106 Braunschweig/Allemagne (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part C, Emerging technologies; ISSN 0968-090X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2013; Vol. 31; Pp. 131-144; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper presents a combined method for short-term forecasting of detector counts in urban networks and subsequent traffic demand estimation using the forecasted counts as constraints to estimate origin-destination (OD) flows, route and link volumes. The method is intended to be used in the framework of an adaptive traffic control strategy with consecutive optimization intervals of 15 min. The method continuously estimates the forthcoming traffic demand that can be used as input data for the optimization. The forecasting uses current and reference space-time-patterns of detector counts. The reference patterns are derived from data collected in the past. The current pattern comprises all detector counts of the last four time intervals. A simple but effective pattern matching is used for forecasting. The subsequent demand estimation is based on the information minimization model that has been integrated into an iterative procedure with repeated traffic assignment and matrix estimation until a stable solution is found. Some enhancements including the improvement of constraints, redundancy elimination of these constraints and a travel time estimation based on a macroscopic simulation using the Cell Transmission Model have been implemented. The overall method, its modules and its performance, which has been assessed using artificially created data for a real sub-network in Hannover, Germany, by means of a microsimulation with Aimsun NG, are presented in this paper. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O02; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Réseau routier; Zone urbaine; Modélisation; Modèle prévision; Demande transport; Minimisation; Information; Système combiné; Détecteur; Comptage; Modèle simulation; Durée trajet; Evaluation performance ED : Road traffic; Road network; Urban area; Modeling; Forecast model; Transport demand; Minimization; Information; Combined system; Detector; Counting; Simulation model; Travel time; Performance evaluation SD : Tráfico carretera; Red carretera; Zona urbana; Modelización; Modelo previsión; Demanda transporte; Minimización; Información; Sistema combinado; Detector; Contaje; Modelo simulación; Duración trayecto; Evaluación prestación LO : INIST-12377C.354000503794790100 8/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0283549 INIST ET : Calibration of microsimulation traffic model using neural network approach AU : ISTOKA OTKOVIC (Irena); TOLLAZZI (Tomaž); SRAML (Matjaž) AF : J.J. Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Drinska 16a/31000 Osijek/Croatie (1 aut.); University of Maribor, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Smetanova 17/2000 Maribor/Slovénie (2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Expert systems with applications; ISSN 0957-4174; Pays-Bas; Da. 2013; Vol. 40; No. 15; Pp. 5965-5974; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper presents the results of research on the applicability of neural networks in the process of computer calibration of a microsimulation traffic model. VISSIM microsimulation model is used for calibration done at the example of roundabouts in an urban area. The calibration method is based on the prediction of a neural network for one traffic indicator, i.e. for the traveling time between measuring points. Besides the traveling time, the calibration process further/also involves a comparison between the modeled and measured queue parameters at the entrance to the intersection. The process of validation includes an analysis of traveling time and queue parameters on new sets of data gathered both at the modeled and at a new roundabout. A comparison of the traffic indicators measured in the field and those simulated with the calibrated and uncalibrated microsimulation traffic model provides an insight into the performance of the calibration procedure. CC : 001D01A04; 001D02C06; 001D02B08; 001D15C FD : Ecoulement trafic; Temps exécution; File attente; Intersection; Gestion trafic; Calculateur processus; Langage visuel programmation; Carrefour routier; Zone urbaine; Etalonnage; Réseau neuronal; Simulation ordinateur; Modélisation; Validation; Analyse temporelle; Modèle donnée ED : Traffic flow; Execution time; Queue; Intersection; Traffic management; Process computer; Visual programming language; Road junction; Urban area; Calibration; Neural network; Computer simulation; Modeling; Validation; Time analysis; Data models SD : Flujo tráfico; Tiempo ejecución; Fila espera; Intersección; Gestión tráfico; Calculador proceso; Lenguaje visual; Cruce carretera; Zona urbana; Contraste; Red neuronal; Simulación computadora; Modelización; Validación; Análisis temporal; Modelo de datos LO : INIST-28119.354000506506970200 9/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0261405 INIST ET : Supply and demand analysis of the current and future US neurology workforce AU : DALL (Timothy M.); STORM (Michael V.); CHAKRABARTI (Ritashree); DROGAN (Oksana); KERAN (Christopher M.); DONOFRIO (Peter D.); HENDERSON (Victor W.); KAMINSKI (Henry J.); STEVENS (James C.); VIDIC (Thomas R.) AF : IHS Healthcare & Pharma/Washington, DC/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); American Academy of Neurology/Minneapolis, MN/Etats-Unis (4 aut., 5 aut.); Vanderbilt University Medical Center/Nashville, TN/Etats-Unis (6 aut.); Departments of Health Research & Policy and Neurology & Neurological Sciences, Stanford University/Stanford, CA/Etats-Unis (7 aut.); Department of Neurology, George Washington University/Washington, DC/Etats-Unis (8 aut.); Fort Wayne Neurological Center/Fort Wayne, IN/Etats-Unis (9 aut.); Elkhart Clinic/Elkhart, IN/Etats-Unis (10 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Neurology; ISSN 0028-3878; Coden NEURAI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2013; Vol. 81; No. 5; Pp. 470-478; Bibl. 27 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Objective: This study estimates current and projects future neurologist supply and demand under alternative scenarios nationally and by state from 2012 through 2025. Methods: A microsimulation supply model simulates likely career choices of individual neurologists, taking into account the number of new neurologists trained each year and changing demographics of the neurology workforce. A microsimulation demand model simulates utilization of neurology services for each individual in a representative sample of the population in each state and for the United States as a whole. Demand projections reflect increased prevalence of neurologic conditions associated with population growth and aging, and expanded coverage under health care reform. Results: The estimated active supply of 16,366 neurologists in 2012 is projected to increase to 18,060 by 2025. Long wait times for patients to see a neurologist, difficulty hiring new neurologists, and large numbers of neurologists who do not accept new Medicaid patients are consistent with a current national shortfall of neurologists. Demand for neurologists is projected to increase from ∼18,180 in 2012 (11% shortfall) to 21,440 by 2025 (19% shortfall). This includes an increased demand of 520 full-time equivalent neurologists starting in 2014 from expanded medical insurance coverage associated with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Conclusions: In the absence of efforts to increase the number of neurology professionals and retain the existing workforce, current national and geographic shortfalls of neurologists are likely to worsen, exacerbating long wait times and reducing access to care for Medicaid beneficiaries. Current geographic differences in adequacy of supply likely will persist into the future. CC : 002B17; 002B17A01 FD : Pathologie du système nerveux; Approvisionnement; Neurologie ED : Nervous system diseases; Supply; Neurology SD : Sistema nervioso patología; Aprovisionamiento; Neurología LO : INIST-6345.354000506565610140 10/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0259396 INIST ET : An integrated modelling approach to estimate urban traffic emissions AU : MISRA (Aarshabh); ROORDA (Matthew J.); MACLEAN (Heather L.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street/Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); Department of Chemical Engineering and Applied Chemistry, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street/Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4/Canada (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Atmospheric environment : (1994); ISSN 1352-2310; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2013; Vol. 73; Pp. 81-91; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : An integrated modelling approach is adopted to estimate microscale urban traffic emissions. The modelling framework consists of a traffic microsimulation model developed in PARAMICS, a microscopic emissions model (Comprehensive Modal Emissions Model), and two dispersion models, AERMOD and the Quick Urban and Industrial Complex (QUIC). This framework is applied to a traffic network in downtown Toronto, Canada to evaluate summer time morning peak traffic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) during five weekdays at a traffic intersection. The model predicted results are validated against sensor observations with 100% of the AERMOD modelled CO concentrations and 97.5% of the QUIC modelled NOx concentrations within a factor of two of the corresponding observed concentrations. Availability of local estimates of ambient concentration is useful for accurate comparisons of predicted concentrations with observed concentrations. Predicted and sensor measured concentrations are significantly lower than the hourly threshold Maximum Acceptable Levels for CO (31 ppm, ˜90 times lower) and NO2 (0.4 mg/m3, ∼12 times lower), within the National Ambient Air Quality Objectives established by Environment Canada. CC : 001D16C03 FD : Modélisation; Pollution air; Zone urbaine; Trafic routier; Qualité air; Monoxyde de carbone; Oxyde d'azote; Prévision pollution atmosphérique; Modèle prévision; Emission polluant; Ontario; Véhicule à moteur; Composé de l'azote FG : Canada; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Modeling; Air pollution; Urban area; Road traffic; Air quality; Carbon monoxide; Nitrogen oxide; Atmospheric pollution forecasting; Forecast model; Pollutant emission; Ontario; Motor vehicle; Nitrogen compounds EG : Canada; North America; America SD : Modelización; Contaminación aire; Zona urbana; Tráfico carretera; Calidad aire; Carbono monóxido; Nitrógeno óxido; Previsión contaminación del ambiente; Modelo previsión; Emisión contaminante; Ontario; Vehículo de motor; Compuesto nitrogenado LO : INIST-8940B.354000174780670100 11/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0255180 INIST ET : Rule-based transit signal priority control method using a real-time transit travel time prediction model AU : LEE (Jinwoo); SHALABY (Amer) AF : Civil Engineering and Built Environment School, Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of Technology/Brisbane, Queensland/Australie (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street/Toronto, ON M5S 1A4/Canada (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Canadian journal of civil engineering : (Print); ISSN 0315-1468; Coden CJCEB8; Canada; Da. 2013; Vol. 40; No. 1; Pp. 68-75; Abs. français; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais FA : Un système de signalisation de priorité pour le transport en commun (TSP) basé sur des règles avancées est présenté. Un modèle de prévision du temps de trajet en ligne est la composante principale de la méthode proposée, laquelle permet de choisir les plans de TSP les plus appropriés aux conditions prédominantes de circulation et de transport en commun. La nouvelle méthode adopte également une caractéristique de développement d'un plan de priorités permettant de modifier ou même de changer le plan de priorité déjà implanté afin de s'adapter aux changements dans les conditions de circulation. La méthode proposée utilise les stratégies conventionnelles de feu vert étendu et de troncature du feu rouge et également deux nouvelles stratégies, incluant la troncature du feu vert et le dégagement des files. La nouvelle méthode est évaluée par rapport à une stratégie typique active de TSP et au scénario de base, en ne présumant aucun contrôle TSP dans la microsimulation. Les résultats de l'évaluation indiquent que la méthode proposée peut présenter des avantages importants de réduction des délais d'autobus et d'amélioration de la régularité du service tout en ayant des impacts nuisibles négligeables sur la circulation non routière et celle de transit. CC : 001D15A; 001D15C; 001D14O05; 001D15B; 295 FD : Transport en commun; Transport routier; Signalisation routière; Modélisation; Priorité; Gestion trafic; Autobus; Etude méthode; Régulation trafic; Règle; Modèle prévision; Durée trajet; Etude cas; Ontario FG : Canada; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Collective transport system; Road transportation; Road signalling; Modeling; Priority; Traffic management; Bus; Method study; Traffic control; Rule; Forecast model; Travel time; Case study; Ontario EG : Canada; North America; America SD : Transporte colectivo; Transporte por carretera; Señalización tráfico; Modelización; Prioridad; Gestión tráfico; Autobus; Estudio método; Regulación tráfico; Regla; Modelo previsión; Duración trayecto; Estudio caso; Ontario LO : INIST-16748.354000500676780080 12/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0254840 INIST ET : A nationwide web-based freight data collection AU : SAMIMI (Amir); MOHAMMADIAN (Abolfazl); KAWAMURA (Kazuya) AF : Civil Engineering Department, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Ave./Tehran/Iran (1 aut.); Department of Civil and Materials Engineering, University of Illinois at Chicago/Chicago, IL/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); College of Urban Planning and Public Affairs, University of Illinois at Chicago/Chicago, IL/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Canadian journal of civil engineering : (Print); ISSN 0315-1468; Coden CJCEB8; Canada; Da. 2013; Vol. 40; No. 2; Pp. 114-120; Abs. français; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais FA : Seulement quelques études ont tenté d'appliquer des modèles comportementaux à l'analyse des politiques de fret mais, en raison du manque de données, la plupart des études n'ont pas produit de résultats satisfaisants. De nombreux décideurs ne veulent pas participer aux sondages qui leur demandent leurs décisions d'expédition, puisqu'une telle information est une partie importante de leur stratégie d'affaire et, c'est bien compréhensible, ils ont peur de perdre leur avantage compétitif s'ils y participent. Cela engendre normalement de piètres taux de participation aux sondages sur le fret et les rend très dispendieux dans plusieurs cas. Toutefois, des résultats empiriques récents suggèrent que le lien entre les taux de refus de répondre et les biais de non-réponse est souvent inexistant. Le présent article examine une analyse du biais de non-réponse d'un sondage en ligne réalisé pour obtenir des données sur le développement en cours d'un modèle comportemental de microsimulation de fret. La méthode de sondage, la conception et les défis d'obtenir l'information sur l'expédition de ces compagnies sont également abordés dans cette étude. [Traduit par la Rédaction]. CC : 001D15B FD : Politique transport; Transport marchandise; Analyse tendance; Collecte donnée; Echelon national; Etats-Unis; Enquête; Préférence; Statistique descriptive; Erreur systématique; Retour expérience FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation policy; Freight transportation; Trend analysis; Data gathering; National scope; United States; Survey; Preference; Descriptive statistics; Bias; Experience feedback EG : North America; America SD : Política transporte; Transporte mercadería; Análisis tendencia; Recolección dato; Escalón nacional; Estados Unidos; Encuesta; Preferencia; Estadística descriptiva; Error sistemático; Retorno experiencia LO : INIST-16748.354000500688820020 13/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0249183 INIST ET : Drivers' Lane Utilization for United Kingdom Motorways AU : YOUSIF (Saad); AL-OBAEDI (Jalal); HENSON (Ralph) AF : Transport Studies, Univ. of Salford/Manchester M5 4WT/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.); Univ. of Al-Qadissia, College of Engineering/Al-Qadissia/Iraq (2 aut.); Univ. of Salford/Manchester M5 4WT/Royaume-Uni (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2013; Vol. 139; No. 5; Pp. 441-447; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Lane utilization represents how the rate of traffic flow is distributed among the available number of lanes in a given section. This utilization or split is affected by several factors, including traffic flow rates and the presence and amount of heavy-goods vehicles (HGVs) within the traffic. It is important to study lane utilization because it is one of the input parameters for any traffic microsimulation models, which are increasingly being used to assess and suggest solutions for traffic problems. This paper uses two sources of data to model lane utilization-motorway incident detection and automatic signaling (MIDAS) data and individual-vehicles raw data. The latter source of data is specifically used to model how HGVs are distributed between motorway lanes as flow increases because MIDAS data do not specify the proportions of HGVs by lanes. Because the data used to develop the models in this paper are based on a relatively large set of data (compared with those represented by older models), one could argue that these models are more representative of current lane utilization on United Kingdom motorways. The development of lane-utilization models for HGV traffic will help in providing more realistic predictions of traffic behavior when represented by microsimulation models and in assessing such commercial vehicles using the lanes when it comes to pavement design. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O02; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Autoroute; Ecoulement trafic; Royaume-Uni; Analyse tendance; Utilisation; Voie circulation; Distribution charge; Chaussée; Poids lourd; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Modèle régression; Analyse donnée FG : Europe ED : Road traffic; Freeway; Traffic flow; United Kingdom; Trend analysis; Use; Traffic lane; Load distribution; Pavement; Heavy truck; Modeling; Simulation model; Regression model; Data analysis EG : Europe SD : Tráfico carretera; Autopista; Flujo tráfico; Reino Unido; Análisis tendencia; Uso; Vía tráfico; Distribución carga; Calzada; Peso pesado; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Modelo regresión; Análisis datos LO : INIST-572E.354000504103650030 14/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0248355 INIST ET : Lane Choice Model for Signalized Intersections with an Auxiliary Through Lane AU : BUGG (Zachary); ROUPHAIL (Nagui M.); SCHROEDER (Bastian) AF : Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State Univ., Campus Box 8601/Raleigh, NC 27695-8601/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State Univ., Campus Box 8601/Raleigh, NC 27695-8601/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State Univ., Campus Box 8601/Raleigh, NC 27695-8601/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2013; Vol. 139; No. 4; Pp. 371-378; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : An auxiliary through lane (ATL) is a commonly used congestion relief measure at signalized intersections in which fiscal and right-of-way constraints do not allow for full widening between intersections. Previously developed models have predicted the flow in the ATL as a function of macroscopic elements, such as through-movement demand and the ratio of average green time to cycle length. However, these models explain neither driver behavior nor motivation to use the ATL, nor can such an approach be used in microscopic simulation models. This paper presents empirically developed models for driver lane choice at signalized intersection approaches with one ATL and one continuous through lane (CTL). These models were developed from a calibration data set that covers eight ATL approaches in three U.S. states, for a total of 12 h of observation. The results suggest that the utility of the ATL is a function of each through-movement driver's arrival time (during either the effective red or green phase), and the queue lengths in either lane at the time of arrival. After calibration, the models were evaluated by applying them to data from a validation site from outside the calibration data set. The paper concludes with a discussion of how the models should be implemented within the lane-change algorithms of microsimulation systems. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B; 001D14O02; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Gestion trafic; Modélisation; Simulation; Choix discret; Voie circulation; Intersection; Feu signalisation; Algorithme; Modèle comportement; Choix site; Technique vidéo; Caroline du Nord FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Traffic management; Modeling; Simulation; Discrete choice; Traffic lane; Intersection; Traffic lights; Algorithm; Behavior model; Site selection; Video technique; North Carolina EG : United States; North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Gestión tráfico; Modelización; Simulación; Selección discreta; Vía tráfico; Intersección; Semáforo; Algoritmo; Modelo comportamiento; Elección sitio; Técnica video; Carolina del norte LO : INIST-572E.354000173316470040 15/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0248354 INIST ET : Variable Speed Limit Control Design for Relieving Congestion Caused by Active Bottlenecks AU : HADIUZZAMAN (Md.); QIU (Tony Z.); LU (Xiao-Yun) AF : Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Alberta, 6-106 Natural Resources Engineering Facility (NREF)/Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2W2./Canada (1 aut.); Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Alberta, 3-005 NREF/Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2W2/Canada (2 aut.); California Partners for Advanced Transportation TecHnology (PATH), Univ. of California, Berkeley, 1357 S. 46th St./Richmond, CA 94804-4648/Canada (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2013; Vol. 139; No. 4; Pp. 358-370; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : Variable speed limit (VSL) can be used on freeways to manage traffic flow with the goal of improving capacity. To achieve this objective, it is necessary that both speed and density dynamics be represented accurately. In this study, to deeply understand the effectiveness of VSL control, an analytical model was developed to represent drivers' response to updated speed limits and macroscopic speed dynamical change with respect to changeable speed limits. Specifically, to model the freeway links having VSL control, the fundamental diagram (FD) was replaced with the VSL control variable in the relaxation term of the METANET. This modification led to the speed control variable appearing linearly, which is preferable for online computation. The density dynamics are based on the cell transmission model (CTM), which is introduced to estimate the transition flow among successive links with some practical constraints. It also offers flexibility in designing active bottleneck in which there is a capacity drop once feeding flow exceeds its capacity. To exploit this benefit, a modification was introduced in the FD of the density dynamics. A VSL control strategy was proposed that explicitly considers traffic characteristics at active bottleneck and its upstream-downstream segments. It can control traffic flow into any type of active bottleneck. Then, the proposed traffic dynamics with the control strategy are implemented in a freeway corridor using the model predictive control (MPC) approach. The analysis was carried out in the calibrated microsimulation model, VISSIM, within a scenario in which shock waves were present. The microsimulation model functions as a proxy for the real-world traffic system. This study reveals that, in terms of mobility, VSL is mostly effective during congestion periods. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Ecoulement trafic; Congestion trafic; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Vitesse déplacement; Modèle prévision; Limitation vitesse; Goulot étranglement; Commande prédictive; Essai en place; Corridor; Autoroute; Canada; Fonction objectif; Etalonnage; Résultat FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Traffic flow; Traffic congestion; Modeling; Simulation model; Speed; Forecast model; Speed limit; Bottleneck; Predictive control; In situ test; Corridor; Freeway; Canada; Objective function; Calibration; Result EG : North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Flujo tráfico; Congestión tráfico; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Velocidad desplazamiento; Modelo previsión; Limitación velocidad; Gollete estrangulamiento; Control predictiva; Ensayo en sitio; Corredor; Autopista; Canadá; Función objetivo; Contraste; Resultado LO : INIST-572E.354000173316470030 16/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0242765 INIST ET : Impact of carbon intensity and energy security constraints on China's coal import AU : BOQIANG LIN; JIANGHUA LIU; YINGCHUN YANG AF : New Huadu Business School, Minjiang University/Fuzhou 350108/Chine (1 aut.); China Center for Energy Economics Research, College of Economics, Xiamen University/Xiamen 361005/Chine (1 aut., 2 aut.); School of International Business Administration, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, no. 777, Guoding Road/Shanghai 200433/Chine (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2012; Vol. 48; Pp. 137-147; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : Logistic and Gaussian Curves are adopted in this article to predict the coal production peak for Shanxi province, Henan province as well as the whole of China. According to the prediction based on the basic coal reserve data, coal production in China will reach its peak in the 2030 s while that of Shanxi and Henan provinces will be achieved by the 2040 s and 2020 s respectively. This article also assesses the influential factors of China's coal peak and revises the forecast of Lin and Liu (2010) about China's coal demand by taking the CO2 intensity constraint into consideration, and then predicting the corresponding coal import. The results show that China would import 983 million tonnes of coal in 2020; which takes as high as 27% of China's total coal consumption. This article demonstrates that even if China fulfills CO2 intensity constraint, the country's energy situation would still be grim as a result of its high GDP growth rate. Therefore, China has to consider both CO2 intensity and energy security constraints when establishing strategic energy plan. Finally, this article suggests an adjustment of energy structure by which those constraints can be addressed and further assesses the effect of the adjusted energy structure. CC : 001D06A01C2A; 001D06A01A; 001D06A01B; 001D06D11D; 230 FD : Charbon; Offre et demande; Production; Pic; Déplétion; Réserve; Consommation; Importation; Sécurité approvisionnement; Lutte antipollution; Emission polluant; Dioxyde de carbone; Modèle économétrique; Modèle simulation; Long terme; Variation spatiale; Répartition géographique; Chine; Politique énergétique FG : Asie ED : Coal; Supply demand balance; Production; Peak; Depletion; Reserve; Consumption; Import; Reliability of supply; Pollution control; Pollutant emission; Carbon dioxide; Econometric model; Simulation model; Long term; Spatial variation; Geographic distribution; China; Energy policy EG : Asia SD : Carbón; Oferta y demanda; Producción; Pico; Depleción; Reserva; Consumo; Importación; Lucha anticontaminación; Emisión contaminante; Carbono dióxido; Modelo econométrico; Modelo simulación; Largo plazo; Variación espacial; Distribución geográfica; China; Política energética LO : INIST-16417.354000504072540150 17/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0236889 INIST ET : Understanding Driver Behavior in Work Zones AU : LOCHRANE (Taylor W. P.); AL-DEEK (Haitham); PARACHA (Jawad); SCRIBA (Tracy) AF : FHWA's Office of Operations Research and Development/Inconnu (1 aut.); Department of Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering at the University of Central Florida/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); FHWA's Office of Transportation Operations/Inconnu (3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Public roads; ISSN 0033-3735; Coden PUROAQ; Etats-Unis; Da. 2013; Vol. 76; No. 5; Pp. 22-25 LA : Anglais EA : Researchers are working on microsimulation modeling to improve mobility and reduce congestion. CC : 001D15C; 001D15A; 001D14O06; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Analyse comportementale; Conducteur véhicule; Chantier; Voirie; Instrumentation; Modélisation; Simulation numérique; Expérimentation; Enquête; En ligne; Etats-Unis FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Behavioral analysis; Vehicle driver; Working site; Road work; Instruments; Modeling; Numerical simulation; Experimentation; Survey; On line; United States EG : North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Análisis conductual; Conductor vehículo; Taller; Vialidad; Instrumentación; Modelización; Simulación numérica; Experimentación; Encuesta; En línea; Estados Unidos LO : INIST-4140.354000503749910040 18/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0234528 INIST ET : Joint Household-Level Analysis of Individuals' Work Arrangement Choices AU : KHAN (Mubassira); PALETI (Rajesh); BHAT (Chandra R.); PENDYALA (Ram M.) AF : Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1761/Austin TX 78712-0278/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Room ECG252/Tempe, AZ 85287-5306/Etats-Unis (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2323; Pp. 56-66; Bibl. 30 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper presents a comprehensive, multidimensional, multivariate binary probit model that can simultaneously represent multiple aspects of individuals' work arrangement decisions while accounting for interactions between household members in individual employment-related choices. The model is estimated on the basis of a survey sample drawn from the San Francisco Bay Area, California, from which a rich set of accessibility measures is available to account for built environment influences on work-related decisions. Model results show that a host of demographic, socioeconomic, built environment, and attitudinal variables influence individual choices regarding work arrangements; more importantly, the model shows that there is much employment-related interaction among household members. The model can be used to predict the employment choices of individuals within larger microsimulation models of activity-travel demand. CC : 001D15A FD : Transports; Modélisation; Analyse comportementale; Choix; Ménage; Modèle probit; Prise de décision; Interaction; Travail; Emploi; Analyse donnée; Enquête; Californie FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Modeling; Behavioral analysis; Choice; Household; Probit model; Decision making; Interaction; Work; Employment; Data analysis; Survey; California EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transportes; Modelización; Análisis conductual; Elección; Familia; Modelo probit; Toma decision; Interacción; Trabajo; Empleo; Análisis datos; Encuesta; California LO : INIST-10459B.354000502448550070 19/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0234515 INIST ET : Agent-Based Parking Choice Model AU : WARAICH (Rashid A.); AXHAUSEN (Kay W.) AF : Institute for Transport Planning and Systems, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology/Zurich, 8093/Suisse (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2319; Pp. 39-46; Bibl. 23 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Parking choice is an essential part of individual transportation; however, many travel demand and traffic simulations do not include parking. This paper reports on a proposal for a simple parking model and describes how this model was implemented into an existing, agent-based traffic simulation. The parking model provides feedback to the traffic simulation so that the overall simulation can react to spatial differences in parking demand and supply. Simulation results of a scenario in the city of Zurich, Switzerland, demonstrated that the model could capture key elements of parking, including capacity and pricing, and could assist with designing parking-focused transport policies. The paper also discusses possible work, such as microsimulation of the search for large-scale parking. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Stationnement; Modélisation; Choix; Orienté agent; Demande transport; Modèle simulation; Implémentation; Politique; Infrastructure; Parc stationnement; Suisse FG : Europe ED : Road traffic; Parking; Modeling; Choice; Agent oriented; Transport demand; Simulation model; Implementation; Policy; Infrastructure; Parking lot; Switzerland EG : Europe SD : Tráfico carretera; Estacionamiento; Modelización; Elección; Orientado agente; Demanda transporte; Modelo simulación; Implementación; Política; Infraestructura; Parque estacionamiento; Suiza LO : INIST-10459B.354000502448300050 20/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0234062 INIST ET : Microsimulation Modeling of Coordination of Automated Guided Vehicles at Intersections AU : MAKAREM (Laleh); PHAM (Minh-Hai); DUMONT (André-Gilles); GILLET (Denis) AF : Real-Time Coordination and Distributed Interaction Systems Group, Station 9/Suisse (1 aut., 4 aut.); Laboratory of Traffic Facilities, Station 18, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne/1015 Lausanne/Suisse (2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2324; Pp. 119-124; Bibl. 13 ref. LA : Anglais EA : One of the challenges with autonomous vehicles is their performance at intersections. An alternative control method for the coordination of autonomous vehicles at intersections is shown. The proposed approach was grounded in multiple-robot coordination and took into account vehicle dynamics as well as realistic communications constraints. The existing concept of decentralized navigation functions was combined with a sensing model, and a crossing strategy was developed. The simulation results showed that because of the proposed approach, vehicles had smoother trajectories when crossing at a four-way intersection. The proposed method was compared with adaptive traffic lights and roundabouts in terms of throughput. Results showed that using a decentralized navigation function for the coordination of autonomous vehicles improved their performance by reducing energy consumption and pollution emissions. CC : 001D15C FD : Véhicule routier; Système automatique; Modélisation; Simulation; Coordination; Véhicule guidé; Intersection; Formulation; Système commande; Système décentralisé; Priorité; Vitesse déplacement; Consommation carburant; Emission polluant ED : Road vehicle; Automatic system; Modeling; Simulation; Coordination; Guided vehicle; Intersection; Formulation; Control system; Decentralized system; Priority; Speed; Motor fuel consumption; Pollutant emission SD : Vehículo caminero; Sistema automático; Modelización; Simulación; Coordinación; Vehículo guiado; Intersección; Formulación; Sistema control; Sistema descentralizado; Prioridad; Velocidad desplazamiento; Consumo carburante; Emisión contaminante LO : INIST-10459B.354000173300030140 21/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0232947 INIST ET : Economic Evaluation of Percutaneous Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion, Dabigatran, and Warfarin for Stroke Prevention in Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation AU : SINGH (Sheldon M.); MICIELI (Andrew); WIJEYSUNDERA (Harindra C.) AF : Division of Cardiology, Schulich Heart Centre, Department of Medicine, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre/Toronto, ON/Canada (1 aut., 3 aut.); Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, ON/Canada (1 aut., 3 aut.); Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative, University of Toronto, ON/Canada (3 aut.); Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto, ON/Canada (3 aut.); Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences/Toronto, ON/Canada (3 aut.); Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa/Ottawa, ON/Canada (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Circulation : (New York, N.Y.); ISSN 0009-7322; Coden CIRCAZ; Etats-Unis; Da. 2013; Vol. 127; No. 24; Pp. 2414-2423; Bibl. 45 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background-Percutaneous left atrial appendage (LAA) occlusion and novel pharmacological therapies are now available to manage stroke risk in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation; however, the cost-effectiveness of LAA occlusion compared with dabigatran and warfarin in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation is unknown. Methods and Results-Cost-utility analysis using a patient-level Markov microsimulation decision analytic model with a lifetime horizon was undertaken to determine the lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life years, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of LAA occlusion in relation to dabigatran and warfarin in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at risk for stroke without contraindications to oral anticoagulation. The analysis was performed from the perspective of the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long Term Care, the third-party payer for insured health services in Ontario, Canada. Effectiveness and utility data were obtained from the published literature. Cost data were obtained from the Ontario Drug Benefits Formulary and the Ontario Case Costing Initiative. Warfarin therapy had the lowest discounted quality-adjusted life years at 4.55, followed by dabigatran at 4.64 and LAA occlusion at 4.68. The average discounted lifetime cost was $21429 for a patient taking warfarin, $25 760 for a patient taking dabigatran, and $27 003 for LAA occlusion. Compared with warfarin, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for LAA occlusion was $41 565. Dabigatran was extendedly dominated. Conclusions-Percutaneous LAA occlusion represents a novel therapy for stroke reduction that is cost-effective compared with warfarin for patients at risk who have nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. CC : 002B12B03; 002B17C; 002B12A02; 002B02G FD : Accident cérébrovasculaire; Fibrillation auriculaire; Hémorragie; Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire; Economie santé; Santé publique; Voie percutanée; Oreillette gauche; Occlusion; Dabigatran; Warfarine; Prévention; Homme; Malade; Anticoagulant; Appareil circulatoire; Cardiologie; Antithrombotique FG : Antithrombine; Inhibiteur enzyme; Thrombin; Serine endopeptidases; Peptidases; Hydrolases; Enzyme; Antivitamine K; Dérivé de la coumarine; Pathologie cérébrovasculaire; Pathologie de l'encéphale; Pathologie du système nerveux central; Pathologie du système nerveux; Pathologie des vaisseaux sanguins; Cardiopathie; Trouble de l'excitabilité; Trouble du rythme cardiaque ED : Stroke; Atrial fibrillation; Hemorrhage; Cardiovascular disease; Health economy; Public health; Percutaneous route; Left atrium; Occlusion; Dabigatran; Warfarin; Prevention; Human; Patient; Anticoagulant; Circulatory system; Cardiology; Antithrombotic agent EG : Antithrombin; Enzyme inhibitor; Thrombin; Serine endopeptidases; Peptidases; Hydrolases; Enzyme; Antivitamin K; Coumarine derivatives; Cerebrovascular disease; Cerebral disorder; Central nervous system disease; Nervous system diseases; Vascular disease; Heart disease; Excitability disorder; Arrhythmia SD : Accidente cerebrovascular; Fibrilación auricular; Hemorragia; Aparato circulatorio patología; Economía salud; Salud pública; Vía percutánea; Orejuela izquierda; Oclusión; Dabigatrán; Warfarina; Prevención; Hombre; Enfermo; Anticoagulante; Aparato circulatorio; Cardiología; antitrombōtico LO : INIST-5907.354000503093280100 22/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0232643 INIST ET : Evaluation of Transit Signal Priority Options for Future Bus Rapid Transit Line in West Valley City, Utah AU : ZLATKOVIC (Milan); STEVANOVIC (Aleksandar); MARTIN (Peter T.); TASIC (Ivana) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, 110 Central Campus Drive/Salt Lake City, UT 84112/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.); Civil Engineering, Florida Atlantic University, Building 36, Room 225, 777 Glades Road/Boca Raton, FL 33431/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2311; Pp. 176-185; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper presents an analysis of different transit signal priorities (TSPs) for a future bus rapid transit (BRT) corridor in West Valley City, Utah. The goal was to find the optimal TSP strategy for estimated and planned traffic and transit operations. The study used VISSIM microsimulation software in combination with ASC/3 software-in-the-loop simulation. Four models were used in the analysis: no TSP, TSP, TSP with phase rotation, and custom TSP. The results showed that TSP with phase rotation and custom TSP could both be considered for implementation. TSP with phase rotation would provide significant benefits for BRT, with minimum impacts on vehicular traffic. Custom TSP would provide major benefits for BRT in travel times, delays, and stops. However, this strategy has more impact on vehicular traffic. Custom TSP is an advanced strategy that still needs examination and improvement. The study provides a set of instructions on how the described strategies can be implemented in field traffic controllers. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Transport routier; Gestion trafic; Priorité; Autobus; Ligne nouvelle; Utah; Modélisation; Etude cas; Evaluation performance; Intersection; Durée trajet; Planification; Résultat; Transport en commun; Bus à haut niveau de service FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road transportation; Traffic management; Priority; Bus; New railway line; Utah; Modeling; Case study; Performance evaluation; Intersection; Travel time; Planning; Result; Collective transport system; Bus rapid transit EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transporte por carretera; Gestión tráfico; Prioridad; Autobus; Línea nueva; Utah; Modelización; Estudio caso; Evaluación prestación; Intersección; Duración trayecto; Planificación; Resultado; Transporte colectivo; Autobús exprés LO : INIST-10459B.354000173221170170 23/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0232642 INIST ET : Development and Evaluation of Algorithm for Resolution of Conflicting Transit Signal Priority Requests AU : ZLATKOVIC (Milan); STEVANOVIC (Aleksandar); MARTIN (Peter T.) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, 110 Central Campus Drive/Salt Lake City, UT 84112/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 3 aut.); Civil, Environmental, and Geomatics Engineering, Florida Atlantic University, Building 36, Room 225, 777 Glades Road/Boca Raton, FL 33431/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2311; Pp. 167-175; Bibl. 8 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The goal of this study was the development and evaluation of an algorithm for resolving conflicting requests for transit signal priority (TSP). This algorithm was designed to work with actual traffic controllers without the need for new hardware or software installations. The algorithm was tested in VISSIM microsimulation and ASC/3 software-in-the-loop controllers on an intersection that will be upgraded to serve two conflicting bus rapid transit (BRT) lines. The ASC/3 logic processor was used to control built-in TSPs in the case of conflicting requests and to develop custom-TSP strategies that would not rely on built-in TSP. Custom TSP provides a much higher level of TSP for transit vehicles than built-in TSP, and it creates opportunities for more adaptable TSP control. The results showed that the widely used first-come, first-served policy for resolution of conflicting TSP requests was not the best solution. Such a policy could perform worse than a policy that provided no priority. For the analyzed intersection, the first-come, first-served option even increased BRT delays by 13% more than did the no-TSP option. The presented algorithm can help resolve the problem of the conflicting TSP requests. The algorithm worked best when combined with several TSP strategies. For the custom-TSP strategies, the application of the algorithm reduced BRT delays by more than 30%, with minimal impact on vehicular traffic. The algorithm shows promising results, and with small upgrades, it can be applied to any type of TSP. CC : 001D14O05; 001D15C; 295 FD : Feu signalisation; Priorité; Trafic routier; Intersection; Croisement routier; Résolution conflit; Algorithme; Méthode multipas; Modélisation; Résultat; Evaluation performance ED : Traffic lights; Priority; Road traffic; Intersection; Cross roads; Conflict resolution; Algorithm; Multistep method; Modeling; Result; Performance evaluation SD : Semáforo; Prioridad; Tráfico carretera; Intersección; Intersección carretera; Resolución conflicto; Algoritmo; Método multipaso; Modelización; Resultado; Evaluación prestación LO : INIST-10459B.354000173221170160 24/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0232624 INIST ET : Long-Term Benefits of Adaptive Traffic Control Under Varying Traffic Flows During Weekday Peak Hours AU : STEVANOVIC (Aleksandar); KERGAYE (Cameron); STEVANOVIC (Jelka) AF : Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geomatics Engineering, Florida Atlantic University, Building 36, Room 225, 777 Glades Road/Boca Raton, FL 33431/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Utah Department of Transportation, P.O. Box 148410/Salt Lake City, Utah 84114-8410/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Northwest 3rd Court/Boca Raton, FL 33431/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2311; Pp. 99-107; Bibl. 18 ref. LA : Anglais EA : When adaptive traffic control systems (ATCSs) are evaluated, traffic signal engineers and practitioners often collect data for a few weeks before and after installation. Benefits are then estimated on the basis of this limited data set. The evaluation of an ATCS with microsimulation requires considerable collection of field data. However, once an ATCS is installed, an abundance of data is collected and stored by the ATCS itself. These data (mostly traffic volumes) can be used to recreate field variability of traffic conditions in a model and perform long-term ATCS evaluation studies. This paper reports on the projected long-term benefits of deploying an ATCS. Field traffic data were statistically processed and modeled in microsimulation. The Sydney coordinated adaptive traffic system (SCATS) and two time-of-day (TOD) plans were exposed to variability of field traffic flows modeled in VISSIM. A simple calculation was then performed to extrapolate results to a period of 10 years. Findings showed that SCATS outperformed existing TOD signal-timing plans by about 20% and was better than the best TOD plan that could be theoretically developed on the basis of collection of long-term data. Results from the study revealed that short-term analyses often obscured the true benefits of deploying an ATCS. A computation of the monetary value of achieved benefits showed that limited operational benefits reported in this paper, when projected over the long term, would exceed overall installation costs for SCATS in Park City, Utah. These benefits are expected to increase further with inclusion of the analysis periods that were not part of this study. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Régulation trafic; Ecoulement trafic; Long terme; Commande adaptative; Feu signalisation; Période pointe; Essai en place; Simulation; Modélisation; Résultat; Utah FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Traffic control; Traffic flow; Long term; Adaptive control; Traffic lights; Peak period; In situ test; Simulation; Modeling; Result; Utah EG : United States; North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Regulación tráfico; Flujo tráfico; Largo plazo; Control adaptativo; Semáforo; Ensayo en sitio; Simulación; Modelización; Resultado; Utah LO : INIST-10459B.354000173221170090 25/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0232623 INIST ET : Multiheadway Gap-Out Logic for Actuated Control on Multilane Approaches AU : CESME (Burak); FURTH (Peter G.) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, 400 Snell Engineering, 360 Huntington Avenue/Boston, MA 02115/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2311; Pp. 117-123; Bibl. 9 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The efficiency of actuated signals depends on quick detection when the queue has discharged and flow rate has dropped below the saturation rate. The traditional detection method is to measure headway between successive vehicles. In single-lane approaches, this measurement works well because the safety need for longitudinal spacing during saturation flow keeps headway variability small. However, on multilane approaches, headways are far more variable (headways near zero are common); for a low probability of premature gap-out, the critical gap has to be set extremely long so that traffic well below the saturation flow rate can hold the light green. This critical gap requirement makes multilane operations inefficient. This paper proposes a gap-out logic that is based on multiheadways, the time needed for several vehicles to pass a detector. For example, for three-lane approaches, the variability of three- or six-vehicle multiheadways is much lower than that of single headways, and this low variability enables the controller to distinguish saturation flow from lower flow more easily. Through microsimulation, intersection operations based on multiheadway logic were compared with traditional detection and lane-by-lane detection. Multiheadway logic performed best in reducing delay and cycle length; the greatest improvement occurred when traffic was heavy. CC : 001D14O05; 001D15C; 001D15B; 295 FD : Feu signalisation; Actionneur; Gestion trafic; Trafic routier; Voie circulation; Ecoulement trafic; Détecteur; Modèle simulation; Résultat; Utilisation ED : Traffic lights; Actuator; Traffic management; Road traffic; Traffic lane; Traffic flow; Detector; Simulation model; Result; Use SD : Semáforo; Accionador; Gestión tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Vía tráfico; Flujo tráfico; Detector; Modelo simulación; Resultado; Uso LO : INIST-10459B.354000173221170110 26/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0232620 INIST ET : Guidance for Simulation-Based Modeling of Auxiliary Through Lanes AU : BUGG (Zachary); ROUPHAIL (Nagui M.); SCHROEDER (Bastian) AF : Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State University, Centennial Campus, Box 8601/Raleigh, NC 27695-8601/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2311; Pp. 51-58; Bibl. 9 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Auxiliary through lanes (ATLs) are a cost-effective means for reducing congestion at signalized intersections, but little guidance is currently available on how to model ATL operations in a microsimulation environment. Without calibration, microsimulation tools assign some vehicles to an ATL as a function of basic lane-changing algorithms; this process results in much higher ATL utilization than observed in the field. This paper presents empirical models that explain ATL use as a function of through-movement congestion. This level of ATL utilization can be achieved in simulation tools by altering certain parameters, chiefly the upstream decision distance (UDD) of the ATL. Peak-hour counts and signal-timing data were collected at 22 ATL approaches from across the United States and coded into simulation to compare field and simulated ATL utilization. Modification of the UDD enabled close modeling of ATL utilization at 19 of 22 sites; the remaining three ATLs could not be modeled accurately in simulation because they experienced extremely low field utilization (less than 10% of total through-movement flow). After calibration, a model that approximated the correct UDD as a function of the total entering through-movement flow and ATL length was empirically developed. This model will allow practitioners to have a starting point when modeling a planned ATL in microsimulation packages; practitioners can then use the ATL operational models for further calibration of the UDD to simulate the correct level of ATL use. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B; 001D14O02; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Gestion trafic; Congestion trafic; Modélisation; Guidage; Voie circulation; Changement de voie; Simulation; Méthodologie; Modèle prévision; Choix site; Etats-Unis; Intersection; Feu signalisation; Croisement routier FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Traffic management; Traffic congestion; Modeling; Guidance; Traffic lane; Lane change; Simulation; Methodology; Forecast model; Site selection; United States; Intersection; Traffic lights; Cross roads EG : North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Gestión tráfico; Congestión tráfico; Modelización; Guiado; Vía tráfico; Cambio de carril; Simulación; Metodología; Modelo previsión; Elección sitio; Estados Unidos; Intersección; Semáforo; Intersección carretera LO : INIST-10459B.354000173221170050 27/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0232586 INIST ET : Safety First: Microsimulation Approach to Assessing Congestion Effects on Risk by Experienced Drivers AU : TALEBPOUR (A.); MAHMASSANI (Hani S.); HAMDAR (S. H.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, Northwestern University, 600 Foster Street/Evanston, IL 60208/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Transportation Center, 215 Chambers Hall, Northwestern University, 600 Foster Street/Evanston, IL 60208/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering and Applied Science, George Washington University, 20101 Academic Way, Room 201-1/Ashburn, VA 20147/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2316; Pp. 106-113; Bibl. 16 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Prevailing traffic conditions affect highway safety and the processes by which drivers perceive a stimulus, evaluate it, and execute a corresponding driving maneuver. Several efforts have been made to use microscopic traffic simulation for evaluating highway safety. However, these efforts faced serious challenges because previous acceleration and lane-changing models had been built in an accident-free environment with different layers of safety constraints. A new approach relies on a cognitive risk-based microscopic model to study the relationship between prevailing traffic conditions and the risk experienced by drivers in a traffic stream. The model can consider accidents endogenously through lane-changing logic and provide an indicator of relative roadway safety as experienced by drivers. Six scenarios are simulated. The results show the importance of lane changing to understanding accident and near-accident occurrence in simulation models. A risk value comparison reveals that work zone bottlenecks have a greater impact on drivers' risk-taking tendencies than bottlenecks caused by uphill grades. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Sécurité trafic; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Congestion trafic; Analyse risque; Retour expérience; Conducteur véhicule; Formulation; Simulation numérique; Scénario ED : Road traffic; Traffic safety; Modeling; Simulation model; Traffic congestion; Risk analysis; Experience feedback; Vehicle driver; Formulation; Numerical simulation; Script SD : Tráfico carretera; Seguridad tráfico; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Congestión tráfico; Análisis riesgo; Retorno experiencia; Conductor vehículo; Formulación; Simulación numérica; Argumento LO : INIST-10459B.354000173299890120 28/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0221783 INIST ET : Modelling the transportation of primary aggregates in England and Wales: Exploring initiatives to reduce CO2 emissions AU : CHENGCHAO ZUO; BIRKIN (Mark); CLARKE (Graham); MCEVOY (Fiona); BLOODWORTH (Andrew) AF : School of Geography, University of Leeds/West Yorkshire LS2 9JT/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); British Geological Survey/Keyworth, Nottingham NG12 5GG/Royaume-Uni (4 aut., 5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Land use policy; ISSN 0264-8377; Pays-Bas; Da. 2013; Vol. 34; Pp. 112-124; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Millions of tonnes of aggregates are transported across England and Wales each year, which causes constant concerns in regard to CO2 emissions. Much of that concern arises out of the long journeys from quarries to construction sites, and the fact that the main mode of transfer is by road. The aim of this paper is to describe the construction of a spatial decision support system (SDSS) to examine the impacts of scenarios to reduce the level of CO2 emissions. The SDSS is made up of a GIS containing a set of spatial models (including a spatial interaction model and a microsimulation model) underpinned by a detailed transport network of road and rail routes across England and Wales. The spatial interaction models are first calibrated to reproduce the existing set of flows of aggregates between quarries and local authority districts. The distance decay component is the travel distance equivalent across the road and rail networks. Based on these flows, linear models can be set up to estimate the amount of CO2 emissions associated with the existing set of flows. Then a series of what-if scenarios are set up which look at how changes in any part of the geography of production, the level of demand in certain areas or the transport process will impact the CO2 emissions. The paper demonstrates the capability of the SDSS in responding to the various spatial policies applied in different stages of the supply chain of the aggregates markets. CC : 002A14D FD : Modélisation; Transports; Emission gaz; Système information géographique; Modèle spatial; Occupation sol; Politique environnement; Dioxyde de carbone; Carbone; Angleterre; Pays de Galles FG : Grande Bretagne; Royaume-Uni; Europe; Europe Ouest ED : Modeling; Transportation; Gas emission; Geographic information system; Spatial model; Land use; Environmental policy; Carbon dioxide; Carbon; England; Wales EG : Great Britain; United Kingdom; Europe; Western Europe SD : Modelización; Transportes; Emisión gas; Sistema información geográfica; Modelo espacial; Ocupación terreno; Política medio ambiente; Carbono dióxido; Carbono; Inglaterra; País de Gales LO : INIST-28133.354000503810040110 29/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0220718 INIST ET : Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and smart grids: Investigations based on a microsimulation AU : WARAICH (Rashid A.); GALUS (Matthias D.); DOBLER (Christoph); BALMER (Michael); ANDERSSON (Göran); AXHAUSEN (Kay W.) AF : Institute for Transport Planning and Systems (IVT), ETH Zürich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 15/8093 Zürich/Suisse (1 aut., 3 aut., 6 aut.); Power Systems Laboratory (PSL), ETH Zürich/8093 Zürich/Suisse (2 aut., 5 aut.); Senozon AG/8093 Zurich/Suisse (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part C, Emerging technologies; ISSN 0968-090X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2013; Vol. 28; Pp. 74-86; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : The introduction of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and electric vehicles (EVs), commonly referred to as plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), could trigger a stepwise electrification of the whole transportation sector. However, the potential impact of PEV charging on the electric grid is not fully known, yet. This paper presents an iterative approach, which integrates a PEV electricity demand model and a power system simulation to reveal potential bottlenecks in the electric grid caused by PEV energy demand. An agent-based traffic demand model is used to model the electricity demand of each vehicle over the day. An approach based on interconnected multiple energy carrier systems is used as a model for a possible future energy system. Experiments demonstrate that the model is sensitive to policy changes, e.g., changes in electricity price result in modified charging patterns. By implementing an intelligent vehicle charging solution it is demonstrated how new charging schemes can be designed and tested using the proposed framework. CC : 001D15C FD : Automobile; Véhicule électrique; Véhicule hybride; Système intelligent; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Technologie; Description système; Expérimentation; Véhicule électrique rechargeable ED : Motor car; Electric vehicle; Hybrid vehicle; Intelligent system; Modeling; Simulation model; Technology; System description; Experimentation; Plug-in electric vehicle SD : Automóvil; Vehículo eléctrico; Vehículo híbrido; Sistema inteligente; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Tecnología; Descripción sistema; Experimentación; Vehículo eléctrico enchufable LO : INIST-12377C.354000502481120060 30/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0207318 INIST ET : Transport and traffic management by micro simulation models: operational use and performance of roundabouts AU : PRATICO (F. G.); VAIANA (R.); GALLELLI (V.); LONGHURST (James W. S.); BREBBIA (C. A.) AF : University Mediterranea/Reggio Calabria/Italie (1 aut.); University of Calabria, Arcavacata Campus-Cosenza/Italie (2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transactions on the built environment; ISSN 1746-4498; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2012; Vol. v. 128; Pp. 383-394; Bibl. 18 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The performance of roundabouts can affect urban transport systems in terms of environmental and operational impacts, safety and efficiency. The development of roundabout traffic management and control systems can be carried out through road traffic micro-simulation models which are computer models where the movements of individual vehicles travelling around road networks are determined by using simple car following, lane changing and gap acceptance rules. Unfortunately, despite the great diffusion of these tools, appropriate methods are still needed in order to validate and calibrate these models. In general, the calibration process can be defined in this way: the process of comparing model parameters with real-world data to ensure that the model realistically represents the traffic environment. The objective is to minimize the discrepancy between model results and measurements or observations. The aim of this paper is the presentation of a first comparative approach between observed performances and performances obtained by the use of popular microsimulation software, in particular urban intersections such as roundabouts. In particular, an experimental investigation is designed and carried out in order to acquire some vehicular parameters for a roundabout placed in an urban contest of southern Italy. The calibration process is carried out by an analysis of variance of the kinematic parameters of an n-tuple of roundabout scenarios. This calibration procedure has permitted to derive some important conclusions about the choice of the most significant input parameters for the output results of each simulation scenario. Outcomes of this study are expected to benefit both practitioners and researchers. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B; 001D14O02; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Gestion trafic; Carrefour giratoire; Modèle simulation; Analyse variance; Cinématique; Evaluation performance; Etalonnage; Etude expérimentale; Scénario; Suivi de véhicule ED : Road traffic; Traffic management; Roundabout; Simulation model; Variance analysis; Kinematics; Performance evaluation; Calibration; Experimental study; Script; Car following SD : Tráfico carretera; Gestión tráfico; Bifurcación giratoria; Modelo simulación; Análisis variancia; Cinemática; Evaluación prestación; Contraste; Estudio experimental; Argumento LO : INIST-Y 39830.354000508210660330 31/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0205106 INIST ET : Road Transition Zones between the Rural and Urban Environment: Evaluation of Speed and Traffic Performance Using a Microsimulation Approach AU : CALIENDO (Ciro); DE GUGLIELMO (Maria Luisa) AF : Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of Salerno/Fisciano (SA) 84084/Italie (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2013; Vol. 139; No. 3; Pp. 295-305; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : A microsimulation approach is presented for evaluating the effectiveness of a transition zone connecting the rural to the urban environment using speeds computed in simulation for showing whether drivers slow down far enough below the imposed speed limit before entering the small urbanized area. The proposed approach was also applied to prove whether, both within the transition zone and on the rural roads approaching this zone, acceptable values of the traffic performance measures expressed in terms of delay time and queue length were ensured. Five design alternatives based on the horizontal deflection were tested. The results showed that the simulated mean speeds were lower than the 50 km/h speed limit imposed at the start of the urbanized area for all transition zones investigated. However, a scenario with a roundabout and a T-type intersection to which two auxiliary lanes for right turns were added was also identified as having better values of the traffic performance measures. The transition zone that was built, in accordance with expert judgments, was found to confirm the effectiveness of the simulated solution. Additionally, the present paper introduces a speed-delay time model. 1. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Région transition; Zone urbaine; Zone rurale; Vitesse déplacement; Temps retard; Evaluation performance; Scénario; Etude comparative; Résultat mesure; Recommandation; Carrefour giratoire ED : Road traffic; Modeling; Simulation model; Transition zone; Urban area; Rural area; Speed; Delay time; Performance evaluation; Script; Comparative study; Measurement result; Recommendation; Roundabout SD : Tráfico carretera; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Región transición; Zona urbana; Zona rural; Velocidad desplazamiento; Tiempo retardo; Evaluación prestación; Argumento; Estudio comparativo; Resultado medición; Recomendación; Bifurcación giratoria LO : INIST-572E.354000502477670060 32/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0202287 BDSP FT : Le modèle de microsimulation TRAJECTOiRE (TRAJEctoire de Carrières TOus REgimes) AU : DUC (Cindy); LEQUIEN (Laurent); HOUSSET (Félix); PLOUHINEC (Corentin) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau monographique SO : SERIE SOURCES ET METHODES - DOCUMENT DE TRAVAIL - DREES; France; Da. 2013-05; No. 40; ; Pp. 56 p. LA : Français FA : Le modèle de micro-simulation TRAJECTOiRE (TRAJEctoire de Carrières TOus REgimes) simule la carrière d'un échantillon d'individus, ainsi que tous les éléments nécessaires au calcul d'une pension de retraite (trimestres cotisés dans chaque caisse de retraite, trimestres validés, salaire, etc.). Il simule ensuite les comportements de départ à la retraite, en fonction d'une législation dont les caractéristiques sont modifiables. Enfin, il calcule une pension de retraite tous régimes pour chaque individu CC : 002B30A11 FD : Méthodologie; Retraite; Charges sociales ED : Methodology; Retirement; Social charges SD : Metodología; Jubilación; Cargas sociales LO : BDSP/MIN-SANTE-BIB00067789 33/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0202229 BDSP FT : Réformer le système de remboursement pour les soins de ville, une analyse par microsimulation AU : GEOFFARD (P.Y.); DE LAGASNERIE (G.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : ECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUE; ISSN 0336-1454; France; Da. 2013-05; No. 455-456; Pp. 89-113; Bibl. dissem. LA : Français FA : Les évolutions du système de remboursement des dépenses de soins par l'assurance publique ont progressivement diminué la couverture publique du risque maladie. Ce système laisse à la charge des assurés des sommes qui peuvent s'avérer importantes lorsque ceux-ci traversent des épisodes de maladie longs et coûteux, et parfois même lorsqu'ils bénéficient d'exonérations au titre d'une affection de longue durée. L'assurance complémentaire est de fait devenue nécessaire. Cependant, 7% de la population ne jouit pas d'une telle assurance. Cet article étudie une réforme possible de l'assurance maladie obligatoire qui prend la forme d'un plafond annuel de la participation financière en soins de ville. Un tel plafond serait financé par l'instauration de franchises annuelles. Nous évaluons cette réforme à partir de micro-simulations appliquées aux données de l'enquête santé soins médicaux 2003, appariée avec les données de remboursement de l'assurance maladie publique (SNIIR-AM) (résumé d'auteur) CC : 002B30A11 FD : Régulation; Assurance maladie; Ambulatoire; Soin; Dépense; Santé; Longue durée; Maladie; Protection sociale; Financement; Evaluation; Modèle économétrique; Simulation; Modèle; France FG : Europe ED : Regulation(control); Health insurance; Ambulatory; Care; Expenditure; Health; Long lasting; Disease; Welfare aids; Financing; Evaluation; Econometric model; Simulation; Models; France EG : Europe SD : Regulación; Seguro enfermedad; Ambulatorio; Cuidado; Gasto; Salud; Larga duración; Enfermedad; Protección social; Financiación; Evaluación; Modelo econométrico; Simulación; Modelo; Francia LO : BDSP/IRDES-S18 34/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0196889 INIST ET : Treatment of local-regional prostate cancer detected by PSA screening: benefits and harms according to prognostic factors AU : WEVER (E. M.); HEIJNSDIJK (E. A. M.); DRAISMA (G.); BANGMA (C. H.); ROOBOL (M. J.); SCHRÖDER (F. H.); DE KONING (H. J.) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, P.O. Box 2040/Rotterdam, 3000, CA/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 7 aut.); Department of Urology, Erasmus Medical Center, P.O. Box 2040/Rotterdam, 3000, CA/Pays-Bas (4 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : British journal of cancer; ISSN 0007-0920; Coden BJCAAI; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2013; Vol. 108; No. 10; Pp. 1971-1977; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : Background: Men with screen-detected prostate cancer can choose to undergo immediate curative treatment or enter into an expectant management programme. We quantified how the benefits and harms of immediate treatment vary according to the prognostic factors of clinical T-stage, Gleason score, and patient age. Methods: A microsimulation model based on European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer data was used to predict the benefits and harms of immediate treatment versus delayed treatment of local-regional prostate cancer in men aged 55-74 years. Benefits included life-years gained and reduced probability of death from prostate cancer. Harms included lead time and probability of overdiagnosis. Results: The ratio of mean lead time to mean life-years gained ranged from 1.8 to 31.2, and the additional number of treatments required per prostate cancer death prevented ranged from 0.3 to 11.6 across the different prognostic groups. Both harm-benefit ratios were lowest, most favourable, for men aged 55-59 years and diagnosed with moderate-risk prostate cancer. Ratios were high for men aged 70-74 years regardless of clinical T-stage and Gleason score. Conclusion: Men aged 55-59 years with moderate-risk prostate cancer are predicted to derive greatest benefit from immediate curative treatment. Immediate treatment is least favourable for men aged 70-74 years with either low-risk or high-risk prostate cancer. CC : 002B04C; 002B14D02 FD : Cancer de la prostate; Traitement régional; Antigène spécifique prostate; Marqueur tumoral; Dépistage; Danger; Pronostic; Plomb; Espérance de vie; Cancérologie; Surdiagnostic FG : Pathologie de l'appareil génital mâle; Pathologie de l'appareil urinaire; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Pathologie de la prostate; Métal lourd ED : Prostate cancer; Regional treatment; Prostate specific antigen; Tumoral marker; Medical screening; Danger; Prognosis; Lead; Life expectancy; Cancerology; Overdiagnosis EG : Male genital diseases; Urinary system disease; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Prostate disease; Heavy metal SD : Cáncer de la próstata; Tratamiento regional; Antigeno específico prostata; Marcador tumoral; Descubrimiento; Peligro; Pronóstico; Plomo; Esperanza de vida; Cancerología; Sobrediagnóstico LO : INIST-6925.354000503009620080 35/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0194655 INIST ET : Standard Pedestrian Equivalent Factors: New Approach to Analyzing Pedestrian Flow AU : GALIZA (Ronald John); FERREIRA (Luis) AF : School of Civil Engineering, The Univ. of Queensland/Brisbane, Queensland 4072/Australie (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2013; Vol. 139; No. 2; Pp. 208-215; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : The design and planning of pedestrian walking facilities must be undertaken in the context of the prevailing and future local traffic composition. The latter is changing rapidly as a result of demographic changes such as aging population and obesity trends. If the traffic consists of a significant proportion of various pedestrian groups, some form of adjustment factor may need to be introduced in the dimensioning process. This paper introduces the concept of standard pedestrian equivalent factors as a practical systematic methodology when dealing with heterogeneity in pedestrian flow. Pedestrian microsimulation was employed to evaluate hypothetical pedestrian proportions to generate corresponding flow relationships. To estimate the factors, the equivalent time-space concept was utilized in order to consider the effects of the differences in physical and operational characteristics of pedestrians, particularly walking speed and body sizes. These characteristics were varied across different flow conditions, walkway widths, and proportions of other pedestrian types in the study sensitivity analysis. A case study was also conducted by utilizing field-collected data in order to illustrate the significance and relevance of the methodology in determining walkway widths. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O02; 295 FD : Trafic piéton; Trottoir; Modélisation; Ecoulement trafic; Corrélation spatiotemporelle; Analyse donnée; Modèle simulation; Recommandation ED : Pedestrian traffic; Footway; Modeling; Traffic flow; Space time correlation; Data analysis; Simulation model; Recommendation SD : Tráfico peatones; Acera; Modelización; Flujo tráfico; Correlación espacio tiempo; Análisis datos; Modelo simulación; Recomendación LO : INIST-572E.354000502404570120 36/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0191948 INIST ET : Analytical Method for Estimating Delays to Vehicles Traversing Single-Lane Roundabouts as a Function of Vehicle and Pedestrian Volumes AU : HELLINGA (Bruce); SINDI (Alaa) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West/Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2312; Pp. 56-66; Bibl. 13 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Modern roundabouts that have unsignalized pedestrian crossings typically provide right-of-way to pedestrians, and therefore vehicles entering or exiting the roundabout must yield to pedestrians. The requirement that vehicles seek gaps in the pedestrian stream results in four distinct sources of delay to vehicles traversing the roundabout. Existing analytical methods for estimating delays to vehicles entering roundabouts typically consider only one of these four sources and ignore the other three. This paper presents an analytical model for estimating delays to vehicles traversing a single-lane roundabout. The model is based on gap acceptance and queuing models and explicitly estimates delays for each of the four sources for each origin-destination movement in the roundabout. The proposed model is evaluated for a typical single-lane roundabout by comparing the model estimates with estimates obtained from the VISSIM simulation model and the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) method for a range of traffic and pedestrian volumes. The results of this evaluation demonstrate that the proposed model is superior to the HCM method and provides delay estimates that are comparable with those obtained from microsimulation modeling. Further research is recommended to validate the model results by using field data. CC : 001D14O02; 001D15C; 295 FD : Carrefour giratoire; Trafic routier; Trafic piéton; Modélisation; Méthode analytique; Véhicule routier; Retard; Etalonnage; Validation; Recommandation; Modèle simulation ED : Roundabout; Road traffic; Pedestrian traffic; Modeling; Analytical method; Road vehicle; Delay; Calibration; Validation; Recommendation; Simulation model SD : Bifurcación giratoria; Tráfico carretera; Tráfico peatones; Modelización; Método analítico; Vehículo caminero; Retraso; Contraste; Validación; Recomendación; Modelo simulación LO : INIST-10459B.354000182520400060 37/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0191946 INIST ET : Delay Analysis of Single-Lane Roundabout with a Slip Lane Under Varying Exit Types, Experimental Balanced Traffic Volumes, and Pedestrians, Using Microsimulation AU : AL-GHANDOUR (Majed); SCHROEDER (Bastian); RASDORF (William); WILLIAMS (Billy) AF : Development Branch, North Carolina Department of Transportation, 1534 Mail Service Center/Raleigh, NC 27699-1534/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Highway Systems Group, Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State University, Centennial Campus Box 8601/Raleigh, NC 27695-8601/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Campus Box 7908/Raleigh, NC 27606-7908/Etats-Unis (3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2312; Pp. 76-85; Bibl. 11 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A slip lane facilitates right-turning traffic flow, reduces approach delay, and reduces conflict points within a roundabout. In this paper the delay performance of a single-lane roundabout with an adjacent slip lane is modeled with the VISSIM microsimulation tool for three slip lane exit types (free-flow, yield, and stop) and the results are compared with a roundabout having no slip lane. The VISSIM assessment considers four experimental traffic percentage turning volume distributions as balanced flow scenarios (total traffic flow into and out of every roundabout approach is the same). Simulated slip lane right-turning traffic volumes range from 50 to 500 vehicles/h, and the four pedestrian volume levels range from 0 to 100 pedestrians/h. VISSIM results confirm that average delays in a roundabout with a slip lane are a function of circulating conflict volumes and are related exponentially to slip lane volumes regardless of the slip lane exit type. Results also indicate that a free-flow slip lane exit type best reduces total average delay in the roundabout and in the slip lane itself. Yield and stop slip lane exit types also reduce the roundabout total average delay but to a lesser degree. Finally, at a higher traffic volume, a free-flow slip lane exit type can increase roundabout delay from 6.6 to 34.7 s/vehicle if drivers must yield the right-of-way to high pedestrian traffic (100 pedestrians/h) crossing a free-flow slip lane (priority rule). CC : 001D14O02; 001D15C; 295 FD : Carrefour giratoire; Trafic routier; Méthodologie; Analyse donnée; Retard; Etude expérimentale; Modèle simulation; Modèle microscopique; Recommandation; Etude comparative ED : Roundabout; Road traffic; Methodology; Data analysis; Delay; Experimental study; Simulation model; Microscopic model; Recommendation; Comparative study SD : Bifurcación giratoria; Tráfico carretera; Metodología; Análisis datos; Retraso; Estudio experimental; Modelo simulación; Modelo microscópico; Recomendación; Estudio comparativo LO : INIST-10459B.354000182520400080 38/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0191933 INIST ET : Effect of Pedestrian Impedance on Vehicular Capacity at Multilane Roundabouts with Consideration of Crossing Treatments AU : SCHROEDER (Bastian); ROUPHAIL (Nagui M.); SALAMATI (Katayoun); BUGG (Zachary) AF : Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State University, Campus Box 8601/Raleigh, NC 27695-8601/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2312; Pp. 14-24; Bibl. 27 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Past research has documented that pedestrian crossings at modern roundabouts can result in an impedance effect on the available capacity of entering traffic. The magnitude of this impedance effect is intuitively linked to the allocation of rights-of-way at the crosswalk, where a greater likelihood of driver yielding is expected to affect capacity more severely. However, existing pedestrian impedance models in the 2010 Highway Capacity Manual and the FHWA Roundabout Guide are not sensitive to yielding rates. The principal objective of this paper is to quantify pedestrian impedance effects on the vehicular entry capacity at multilane roundabouts as a function of driver yielding behavior. A calibrated microsimulation model is used to develop the relationships and explore changes in volume and yielding parameters. Impedance models are further developed for the pedestrian hybrid beacon (PHB) treatment, which is gaining increasing attention at multilane roundabouts across the United States. The results confirm the expected effects that the pedestrian impedance is more severe with higher pedestrian flow rates but decreases in severity with greater conflicting flows. The results further show that the effect of varying yielding rates on the impedance effect is minimal for congested roundabout approaches, because the relative effect of yielding is small compared with that of pedestrian volumes and conflicting circulating flow. The analysis of the PHB treatment shows that the impedance effect of the same pedestrian flows is generally less than that for an unsignalized crossing environment. CC : 001D14O02; 001D15C; 295 FD : Carrefour giratoire; Trafic routier; Trafic piéton; Passage piéton; Modélisation; Analyse quantitative; Etalonnage; Expérimentation; Scénario ED : Roundabout; Road traffic; Pedestrian traffic; Pedestrian walk; Modeling; Quantitative analysis; Calibration; Experimentation; Script SD : Bifurcación giratoria; Tráfico carretera; Tráfico peatones; Pasaje peatones; Modelización; Análisis cuantitativo; Contraste; Experimentación; Argumento LO : INIST-10459B.354000182520400020 39/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0187798 INIST ET : The personal and national costs of CVD: Impacts on income, taxes, government support payments and GDP due to lost labour force participation AU : SCHOFIELD (Deborah); SHRESTHA (Rupendra); PERCIVAL (Richard); PASSEY (Megan); CALLANDER (Emily); KELLY (Simon) AF : NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney/Camperdown, NSW/Australie (1 aut., 2 aut., 5 aut.); School of Public Health, University of Sydney/NSW/Australie (1 aut., 5 aut.); National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of Canberra/Canberra, ACT/Australie (3 aut., 6 aut.); Northern Rivers University Department of Rural Health, University of Sydney/Lismore, NSW/Australie (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : International journal of cardiology; ISSN 0167-5273; Coden IJCDD5; Irlande; Da. 2013; Vol. 166; No. 1; Pp. 68-71; Bibl. 29 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: CVD has the ability to interrupt an individual's ability to participate in the labour force, and this can have considerable follow-up on impacts to both the individual and the state. This study aimed to quantify the personal cost of lost income and the cost to the state from lost income taxation, increased benefit payments and lost GDP as a result of early retirement due to CVD in Australians aged 45-64 in 2009. Methods: Cross-sectional analysis of the base population of Health&WealthMOD, a microsimulation model built on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers and STINMOD, an income and savings microsimulation model. Results: Individuals aged 45 to 64 years who have retired early due to CVD have a median value of total weekly income of only $268 whereas those who are employed full time are likely to have almost five times this. The national aggregate impact of CVD through the loss of labour force participation amongst 45 to 64 year olds, equated to around AU$1.1 billion in lost income, $AU225 million in lost income taxation revenue, AU$85 million in additional government benefit payments, and AU$748 million in lost GDP, in 2009 alone. Conclusions: The costs of CVD to both individuals and the state are considerable. Whilst individuals bear the economic costs of lost income in addition to the burden of the condition itself, the state impacts are loss of productivity from reduced workforce participation, lost income taxation revenue, and increasing government support payments - in addition to direct health care costs. CC : 002B12A FD : Coût; Economie santé; Aspect économique; Santé publique; Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire; Revenu économique; Gouvernement; Aspect politique; Politique sanitaire; Support; Paiement; Population active; Participation; Impact économique; Taxation; Retraite; Cardiologie; Maladie cardiovasculaire FG : Epidémiologie ED : Costs; Health economy; Economic aspect; Public health; Cardiovascular disease; Income; Government; Political aspect; Health policy; Support; Payment; Labour force; Participation; Economic impact; Taxation; Retirement; Cardiology; Cardiovascular disease EG : Epidemiology SD : Coste; Economía salud; Aspecto económico; Salud pública; Aparato circulatorio patología; Renta; Gobierno; Aspecto político; Política sanitaria; Soporte; Pago; Población activa; Participación; Impacto económico; Tasación; Jubilación; Cardiología; Cardiovascular enfermedad LO : INIST-16457.354000504151330110 40/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0181137 INIST ET : Application of Socioeconomic Model System for Activity-Based Modeling: Experience from Southern California AU : PENDYALA (Ram M.); BHAT (Chandra R.); GOULIAS (Konstadinos G.); PALETI (Rajesh); KONDURI (Karthik C.); SIDHARTHAN (Raghu); HU (Hsi-Hwa); GUOXIONG HUANG; CHRISTIAN (Keith P.) AF : School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Room ECG252, Arizona State University/Tempe, AZ 85287-5306/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 5 aut., 9 aut.); Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station, C1761/Austin TX 78712-0278/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 4 aut., 6 aut.); Department of Geography, University of California/Santa Barbara, CA 93106-4060/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Southern California Association of Governments, 818 West Seventh Street, 12th Floor/Los Angeles, CA 90017/Etats-Unis (7 aut., 8 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2303; Pp. 71-80; Bibl. 16 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper presents results from the application of a comprehensive socioeconomic and demographic model system in conjunction with a continuous-time, activity-based microsimulation model of travel demand developed for the Southern California Association of Governments. The socioeconomic model system includes two major components. The first is a synthetic population generator that is capable of synthesizing a representative population for the entire region while controlling for both household- and person-level marginal distributions. The second is an econometric microsimulator that models various socioeconomic and demographic attributes for each person in the synthetic population with a view to developing a rich set of input data for the activity-based microsimulation model system. The results show that the socioeconomic model system is capable of replicating known distributions of demographic attributes in the population and can be easily scaled for implementation in large regions such as the Southern California area, which includes a population of more than 18 million people in its model boundaries. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Modélisation; Socioéconomie; Californie; Application; Retour expérience; Etude comparative; Modèle prévision; Enquête; Ménage FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Modeling; Socioeconomics; California; Application; Experience feedback; Comparative study; Forecast model; Survey; Household EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transportes; Modelización; Socioeconomía; California; Aplicación; Retorno experiencia; Estudio comparativo; Modelo previsión; Encuesta; Familia LO : INIST-10459B.354000182520240080 41/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0181134 INIST ET : Integrated Land Use-Transport Model System with Dynamic Time-Dependent Activity-Travel Microsimulation AU : PENDYALA (Ram M.); KONDURI (Karthik C.); CHIU (Yi-Chang); HICKMAN (Mark); NOH (Hyunsoo); WADDELL (Paul); LIMING WANG; YOU (Daehyun); GARDNER (Brian) AF : School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Room ECG252, Arizona State University/Tempe, AZ 85287-5306/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 8 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering and Engineering Mechanics, University of Arizona, 1209 East Second Street, Room 206A/Tucson, AZ 85721/Etats-Unis (3 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut.); College of Environmental Design, University of California at Berkeley, 228 Wurster Hall, Room 1850/Berkeley, CA 94720-1820/Etats-Unis (6 aut., 7 aut.); FHWA, U.S. Department of Transportation, 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE, HEPP-30/Washington, DC 20590/Etats-Unis (9 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2303; Pp. 19-27; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The development of integrated land use-transport model systems has long been of interest because of the complex interrelationships between land use, transport demand, and network supply. This paper describes the design and prototype implementation of an integrated model system that involves the microsimulation of location choices in the land use domain, activity-travel choices in the travel demand domain, and individual vehicles on networks in the network supply modeling domain. Although many previous applications of integrated transport demand- supply models have relied on a sequential coupling of the models, the system presented in this paper involves a dynamic integration of the activity-travel demand model and the dynamic traffic assignment and simulation model with appropriate feedback to the land use model system. The system has been fully implemented, and initial results of model system runs in a case study test application suggest that the proposed model design provides a robust behavioral framework for simulation of human activity-travel behavior in space, time, and networks. The paper provides a detailed description of the design, together with results from initial test runs. CC : 001D15B; 001D14A06; 295 FD : Transports; Modélisation; Gestion intégrée; Occupation sol; Modèle simulation; Activité; Voyage; Dépendance du temps; Modèle dynamique; Implémentation ED : Transportation; Modeling; Integrated management; Land use; Simulation model; Activity; Travel; Time dependence; Dynamic model; Implementation SD : Transportes; Modelización; Gestión integrada; Ocupación terreno; Modelo simulación; Actividad; Viaje; Dependencia del tiempo; Modelo dinámico; Implementación LO : INIST-10459B.354000182520240030 42/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0181125 INIST ET : Modifiable Attribute Cell Problem and Solution Method for Population Synthesis in Land Use Microsimulation AU : OTANI (Noriko); SUGIKI (Nao); VICHIENSAN (Varameth); MIYAMOTO (Kazuaki) AF : Faculty of Environmental and Information Studies, Tokyo City University, 3-3-1 Ushikubo-Nishi/Tsuzuki-Ku, Yokohama 224-8551/Japon (1 aut., 4 aut.); Transportation Department, Docon Company, Ltd., 4-1, 5-Chome, 1-Jo, Atsubetsu-Chuo/Atsubetsu, Sapporo 004-8585/Japon (2 aut.); Faculty of Engineering, Kasetsart University, 50 Phaholyothin Road, Lardyao/Jatujak, Bangkok 10900/Thaïlande (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2302; Pp. 157-163; Bibl. 17 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Land use microsimulation requires the preparation of a set of microdata for the base year. Most existing procedures used for the synthesis of population data are based on the iterative proportional fitting method, in which the number of individuals in each cell of the cross-classification table is estimated. Such a procedure is referred to as the cell-based approach in this study. The approach is based on predefined categories of individuals. Originally, however, these individuals have continuous attributes. Therefore, a different type of categorization would yield a different classification table, which would change the end results of the analysis. In this paper, this phenomenon is referred to as the modifiable attribute cell problem (MACP). It is similar to the modifiable area unit problem that arises when spatial data are aggregated into zones. This paper addresses MACP and proposes a method to determine the best combination of the categories. The solution of MACP is considered to be the minimization of the number of cells in a table with respect to the key output variable that has been defined and used as an evaluation criterion. Because of the computational difficulty resulting from the combination explosion, symbiotic evolution, which is a kind of genetic algorithm, is used. Finally, a case study is presented for the Sapporo metropolitan area of Japan. CC : 001D15B; 001D14A06; 295 FD : Transports; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Occupation sol ED : Transportation; Modeling; Simulation model; Land use SD : Transportes; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Ocupación terreno LO : INIST-10459B.354000182520160170 43/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0168259 INIST ET : A comparative assessment of multi-sensor data fusion techniques for freeway traffic speed estimation using microsimulation modeling AU : BACHMANN (Chris); ABDULHAI (Baher); ROORDA (Matthew J.); MOSHIRI (Behzad) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto/M5S 1A4/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part C, Emerging technologies; ISSN 0968-090X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2013; Vol. 26; Pp. 33-48; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Real-time traffic speed estimation is a fundamental task for urban traffic management centers and is often a critical element of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). For this purpose, various sensors are used to collect traffic information. For many applications, the information provided by individual sensors is incomplete, inaccurate and/or unreliable. Therefore, a fusion based estimate provides a more effective approach towards traffic speed estimation. In this paper, seven multi-sensor data fusion-based estimation techniques are investigated. All methods are implemented and compared in terms of their ability to fuse data from loop detectors and probe vehicles to accurately estimate freeway traffic speed. For the purposes of a rigorous comparison, data are generated from a microsimulation model of a major freeway in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The microsimulation model includes loop detectors and a newly implemented traffic monitoring system that detects Bluetooth-enabled devices traveling past roadside Bluetooth receivers, allowing for an automated method of probe vehicle data collection. To establish the true traffic speed that each fusion method attempts to estimate, all vehicles in the microsimulation model are equipped with GPS devices. Results show that most data fusion techniques improve accuracy over single sensor approaches. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the improvement by data fusion depends on the technique, the number of probe vehicles, and the traffic conditions. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Autoroute; Modélisation; Etude comparative; Modèle simulation; Capteur multiple; Fusion donnée; Vitesse déplacement; Modèle microscopique; Système intelligent; Gestion trafic; Etude cas; Canada FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Freeway; Modeling; Comparative study; Simulation model; Multisensor; Data fusion; Speed; Microscopic model; Intelligent system; Traffic management; Case study; Canada EG : North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Autopista; Modelización; Estudio comparativo; Modelo simulación; Multisensor; Fusión datos; Velocidad desplazamiento; Modelo microscópico; Sistema inteligente; Gestión tráfico; Estudio caso; Canadá LO : INIST-12377C.354000182517600030 44/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0165593 INIST ET : Computational-Based Approach to Estimating Travel Demand in Large-Scale Microscopic Traffic Simulation Models AU : SHAN HUANG; SADEK (Adel W.); LIYA GUO AF : Univ. at Buffalo, State Univ. of New York, Dept. of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering/Buffalo, NY 14260/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of computing in civil engineering; ISSN 0887-3801; Coden JCCEE5; Etats-Unis; Da. 2013; Vol. 27; No. 1; Pp. 78-86; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : The increased interest in the development and application of large-scale or regional microsimulation transportation models has brought to the forefront the challenges associated with estimating the dynamic demand information needed to run such models. This paper develops a computational-based approach for estimating or adjusting dynamic origin-destination matrices for regional microsimulation models on the basis of hourly traffic counts. The proposed approach, while based on genetic algorithms (GA), includes a special module, called Plan Analyzer, to guide the search process in an intelligent way. This results in a customized algorithm for the problem that can be regarded as an example of a guided genetic algorithm (GGA). To cut down on execution time, a distributed implementation of the algorithm is adopted, and several software design procedures are developed to deal with the demanding memory requirements of the problem. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm, the Transportation Analysis and Simulation System (TRANSIMS) model, a microsimulation platform designed for regional simulations, is used to model two test networks, a synthetic grid network and a realistic regional model of Chittenden County, Vermont. The GGA is then utilized to estimate the dynamic demand for those two models on the basis of hourly traffic count information. The results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness of the GGA in dramatically reducing the average absolute error (AAE) between the simulated and field counts, and in closely estimating the &dquot;true&dquot; demand, which was known in this research by virtue of how the case studies were designed. The results also show that the developed GGA significantly outperforms standard GAs. CC : 001D15B FD : Transport urbain; Gestion trafic; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Demande transport; Modèle microscopique; Algorithme génétique; Modèle origine destination; Etude cas; Scénario ED : Urban transportation; Traffic management; Modeling; Simulation model; Transport demand; Microscopic model; Genetic algorithm; Origin destination model; Case study; Script SD : Transporte urbano; Gestión tráfico; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Demanda transporte; Modelo microscópico; Algoritmo genético; Modelo origen destinación; Estudio caso; Argumento LO : INIST-572X.354000506288590090 45/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0165568 INIST ET : Perceived attributes of bus and car mediating satisfaction with the work commute AU : ERIKSSON (Lars); FRIMAN (Margareta); GÄRLING (Tommy) AF : Samot/CTF, Karlstad University/651 88 Karlstad/Suède (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); Department of Psychology, University of Gothenburg, P.O. Box 500/40530 Göteborg/Suède (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice; ISSN 0965-8564; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2013; Vol. 47; Pp. 87-96; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : In an experimental simulation employing 123 undergraduates the effect of different travel modes on satisfaction with travel, mood after the day traveled, and satisfaction with the day as a whole were assessed for the work commute by car or bus. Car was rated higher than bus on satisfaction with travel. This mode difference was accounted for by ratings of the mode-specific attributes fun, lifestyle match, and feeling secure for which car was rated higher than bus. It was also shown that satisfaction with travel partially mediated the effect of travel mode on mood. Satisfaction with the day as a whole was however not influenced by travel mode when controlling for the mood effect of travel. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Transport routier; Autobus; Trajet domicile travail; Politique transport; Transport public; Etude expérimentale; Simulation; Perception; Satisfaction; Moyen transport; Voyage; Modèle économétrique; Analyse donnée; Suède FG : Europe ED : Road transportation; Bus; Travel to work; Transportation policy; Public transportation; Experimental study; Simulation; Perception; Satisfaction; Transportation mode; Travel; Econometric model; Data analysis; Sweden EG : Europe SD : Transporte por carretera; Autobus; Trayecto domicilio trabajo; Política transporte; Transporte público; Estudio experimental; Simulación; Percepción; Satisfacción; Medio transporte; Viaje; Modelo econométrico; Análisis datos; Suecia LO : INIST-12377A.354000506285520090 46/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0150826 INIST ET : The Management of Patients with T1 Adenocarcinoma of the Low Rectum: A Decision Analysis AU : JOHNSTON (Calvin F.); TOMLINSON (George); TEMPLE (Larissa K.); BAXTER (Nancy N.) AF : Department of Clinical Decision Making and Health Care, University Health Network and Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto/Toronto, Ontario/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.); Department of Colorectal Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center/New York, New York/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Department of Surgery and Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation, University of Toronto and Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital/Toronto, Ontario/Canada (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Diseases of the colon & rectum; ISSN 0012-3706; Coden DICRAG; Etats-Unis; Da. 2013; Vol. 56; No. 4; Pp. 400-407; Bibl. 39 ref. LA : Anglais EA : BACKGROUND: Decision making for patients with T1 adenocarcinoma of the low rectum, when treatment options are limited to a transanal local excision or abdominoperineal resection, is challenging. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to develop a contemporary decision analysis to assist patients and clinicians in balancing the goals of maximizing life expectancy and quality of life in this situation. DESIGN: We constructed a Markov-type microsimulation in open-source software. Recurrence rates and quality-of-life parameters were elicited by systematic literature reviews. Sensitivity analyses were performed on key model parameters. PATIENTS AND SETTING: Our base case for analysis was a 65-year-old man with low-lying T1N0 rectal cancer. We determined the sensitivity of our model for sex, age up to 80, and T stage. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measured was quality-adjusted life-years. RESULTS: In the base case, selecting transanal local excision over abdominoperineal resection resulted in a loss of 0.53 years of life expectancy but a gain of 0.97 quality-adjusted life-years. One-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated a health state utility value threshold for permanent colostomy of 0.93. This value ranged from 0.88 to 1.0 based on tumor recurrence risk. There were no other model sensitivities. LIMITATIONS: Some model parameter estimates were based on weak data. CONCLUSIONS: In our model, transanal local excision was found to be the preferable approach for most patients. An abdominoperineal resection has a 3.5% longer life expectancy, but this advantage is lost when the quality-of-life reduction reported by stoma patients is weighed in. The minority group in whom abdominoperineal resection is preferred are those who are unwilling to sacrifice 7% of their life expectancy to avoid a permanent stoma. This is estimated to be approximately 25% of all patients. The threshold increases to 12% of life expectancy in high-risk tumors. No other factors are found to be relevant to the decision. CC : 002B13B01; 002B28C FD : Cancer du rectum; Résection abdominopérinéale; Homme; Adénocarcinome; Rectum; Analyse décision; Chirurgie; Qualité de vie; Gastroentérologie; Traitement FG : Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Pathologie de l'appareil digestif; Pathologie de l'intestin; Pathologie anorectale; Pathologie du rectum ED : Rectum cancer; Abdominoperineal resection; Human; Adenocarcinoma; Rectum; Decision analysis; Surgery; Quality of life; Gastroenterology; Treatment EG : Malignant tumor; Cancer; Digestive diseases; Intestinal disease; Anorectal disease; Rectal disease SD : Cáncer del recto; Resección abdominoperineal; Hombre; Adenocarcinoma; Recto; Análisis decisión; Cirugía; Calidad vida; Gastroenterología; Tratamiento LO : INIST-13291.354000503741570020 47/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0149936 INIST ET : Developing Standard Pedestrian-Equivalent Factors: Passenger Car-Equivalent Approach for Dealing with Pedestrian Diversity AU : GALIZA (Ronald John); FERREIRA (Luis) AF : School of Civil Engineering, University of Queensland/Brisbane, Queensland 4072/Australie (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2299; Pp. 166-173; Bibl. 34 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Similar to vehicular traffic, pedestrians, despite having diverse capabilities and body sizes, can be classified as heterogeneous. The use of vehicular traffic resolves the diversity issue with a conversion of heterogeneous vehicle flow into an equivalent flow with the use of passenger car-equivalent (PCE) factors. Analysis of pedestrian flow has yet to incorporate pedestrian diversity analysis implicitly into the design of pedestrian facilities, although some form of adjustment has been suggested. This paper introduces the concept of PCE-type factors for mixed pedestrian traffic called standard pedestrian-equivalent (SPE) factors. Estimates of SPE factors are made relative to the average commuter. The equivalent total travel time approach for PCE estimation was adapted to consider the effects of the differences in physical and operational characteristics of pedestrians, particularly walking speed and body size. Microsimulation of pedestrians was employed to evaluate hypothetical pedestrian proportions so as to generate corresponding flow relationships. Walking speeds and body sizes were varied across different flow conditions, walkway widths, and proportions of other pedestrian types. The first part of this paper explores how the two pedestrian characteristics (walking speed and body size) influence estimated SPE factors. The second part is a case study in which field-collected data illustrate SPE factors calculated for older adults, obese pedestrians, and their combination. An application of SPE factors demonstrates the robustness of the methodology in bridging the gap between pedestrian compositions and planning practice. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic piéton; Programme recherche; Etude comparative; Trafic routier; Véhicule routier; Méthodologie; Analyse quantitative; Modèle simulation; Analyse sensibilité; Vitesse déplacement; Ecoulement trafic; Etude cas; Application; Equivalent ED : Pedestrian traffic; Research program; Comparative study; Road traffic; Road vehicle; Methodology; Quantitative analysis; Simulation model; Sensitivity analysis; Speed; Traffic flow; Case study; Application; Equivalent SD : Tráfico peatones; Programa investigación; Estudio comparativo; Tráfico carretera; Vehículo caminero; Metodología; Análisis cuantitativo; Modelo simulación; Análisis sensibilidad; Velocidad desplazamiento; Flujo tráfico; Estudio caso; Aplicación; Equivalente LO : INIST-10459B.354000182520080180 48/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0146347 INIST ET : Sustainable energy development in Austria until 2020: Insights from applying the integrated model &dquot;e3.at&dquot; AU : STOCKER (Andrea); GROSSMANN (Anett); MADLENER (Reinhard); INGO WOLTER (Marc) AF : SERI-Sustainable Europe Research Institute, Garnisongasse 7/21/1090 Vienna/Autriche (1 aut.); Institute of Economic Structures Research, Heinrichstr. 30/49080 Osnabrück/Allemagne (2 aut., 4 aut.); Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), School of Business and Economics/E.ON Energy Research Center, RWTH Aachen University, Mathieustrasse 6/52074 Aachen/Allemagne (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2011; Vol. 39; No. 10; Pp. 6082-6099; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper reports on the Austrian research project &dquot;Renewable energy in Austria: Modeling possible development trends until 2020&dquot;. The project investigated possible economic and ecological effects of a substantially increased use of renewable energy sources in Austria. Together with stakeholders and experts, three different scenarios were defined, specifying possible development trends for renewable energy in Austria. The scenarios were simulated for the period 2006-2020, using the integrated environment-energy-economy model &dquot;e3.at&dquot;. The modeling results indicate that increasing the share of renewable energy sources in total energy use is an important but insufficient step towards achieving a sustainable energy system in Austria. A substantial increase in energy efficiency and a reduction of residential energy consumption also form important cornerstones of a sustainable energy policy. CC : 001D06A01C5; 001D06A01A; 001D06A01C1; 001D06A01B; 230 FD : Energie renouvelable; Pénétration marché; Moyen terme; 2020; Autriche; Scénario; Consommation énergie; Répartition par source; Impact environnement; Emission polluant; Dioxyde de carbone; Modélisation; Modèle économétrique; Modèle macroéconomique; Simulation; Politique énergétique; Modèle e3.at FG : Europe ED : Renewable energy; Market penetration; Medium term; 2020; Austria; Script; Energy consumption; Distribution by sources; Environment impact; Pollutant emission; Carbon dioxide; Modeling; Econometric model; Macroeconomic model; Simulation; Energy policy EG : Europe SD : Energía renovable; Penetración mercado; Término medio; 2020; Austria; Argumento; Consumo energía; Repartición por fuente; Impacto medio ambiente; Emisión contaminante; Carbono dióxido; Modelización; Modelo econométrico; Modelo macroeconómico; Simulación; Política energética LO : INIST-16417.354000509190760400 49/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0145070 INIST ET : Managed Motorways: Modeling and Monitoring Their Effectiveness AU : VAN VUREN (Tom); BAKER (Jo); OGAWA (Jennifer); COOKE (David); UNWIN (Paul) AF : Mott MacDonald, Canterbury House, 85 Newhall Street/Birmingham B3 1LZ/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut.); Mott MacDonald, Stoneham Place, Stoneham Lane/Southampton, Hampshire S050 9NW/Royaume-Uni (3 aut.); Highways Agency, The Cube, 199 Wharfside Street/Birmingham, B1 1RN/Royaume-Uni (4 aut., 5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2278; Pp. 85-94; Bibl. 12 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Managed motorways (formerly known as active traffic management) aim to address traffic congestion and improve journey time reliability with a set of advanced applications of intelligent transport systems to maximize available road capacity. An important feature of managed motorways is the use of hard shoulder running together with variable mandatory speed limits during periods of congestion. Managed motorways were first trialed in the Netherlands and have been in operation in the United Kingdom since 2006. This paper presents the monitoring results of the introduction of managed motorways around Birmingham in the United Kingdom and also describes modeling methods that were used to generalize the findings. Managed motorways around Birmingham have been so effective that they are to be introduced by the UK Highways Agency across the wider network. This paper summarizes the findings of 5 years of monitoring and modeling and refers to the wider set of papers and reports in the public domain for deeper analysis. The paper describes the rigor in monitoring before and after data and in the modeling support for the assessment of outcomes of this transportation investment decision; these outcomes include a reference to the relationship with the economic development in the area. Discussion includes results from a before and after data analysis exercise, the contribution by microsimulation modeling, and findings from an extensive consultation exercise with users of the scheme. The wider economic impacts of investment in managed motorways are examined. The intention is to produce guidance for those transportation organizations that are considering the implementation of managed motorways elsewhere in the world, in particular in the United States. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Autoroute; Gestion trafic; Modélisation; Monitorage; Efficacité; Pays-Bas; Ecoulement trafic; Vitesse déplacement; Modèle simulation; Avantage; Aspect économique FG : Europe ED : Road traffic; Freeway; Traffic management; Modeling; Monitoring; Efficiency; Netherlands; Traffic flow; Speed; Simulation model; Advantage; Economic aspect EG : Europe SD : Tráfico carretera; Autopista; Gestión tráfico; Modelización; Monitoreo; Eficacia; Holanda; Flujo tráfico; Velocidad desplazamiento; Modelo simulación; Ventaja; Aspecto económico LO : INIST-10459B.354000502998590100 50/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0139152 INIST ET : Cost-Effectiveness of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Drug Eluting Stents Versus Bypass Surgery for Patients With Diabetes Mellitus and Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease: Results From the FREEDOM Trial AU : MAGNUSON (Elizabeth A.); FARKOUH (Michael E.); FUSTER (Valentin); KAIJUN WANG; VILAIN (Katherine); HAIYAN LI; APPELWICK (Jaime); MURATOV (Victoria); SLEEPER (Lynn A.); BOINEAU (Robin); ABDALLAH (Mouin); COHEN (David J.) AF : Saint Luke's Mid America Heart Institute/Kansas City, MO/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut., 7 aut., 11 aut., 12 aut.); Department of Cardiology, Mount Sinai School of Medicine/New York, NY/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 3 aut.); Peter Munk Cardiac Centre and Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, University of Toronto/Toronto, Ontario/Canada (2 aut.); New England Research Institutes/Watertown, MA/Etats-Unis (8 aut., 9 aut.); National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health/Bethesda, MD/Etats-Unis (10 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Circulation : (New York, N.Y.); ISSN 0009-7322; Coden CIRCAZ; Etats-Unis; Da. 2013; Vol. 127; No. 7; Pp. 820-831; Bibl. 38 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background-Studies from the balloon angioplasty and bare metal stent eras have demonstrated that coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is cost-effective compared with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for patients undergoing multivessel coronary revascularization-particularly among patients with complex coronary artery disease or diabetes mellitus. Whether these results apply in the drug-eluting stent (DES) era is unknown. Methods and Results-Between 2005 and 2010, 1900 patients with diabetes mellitus and multivessel coronary artery disease were randomized to PCI with DES (DES-PCI; n=953) or CABG (n=947). Costs were assessed from the perspective of the U.S. health care system. Health state utilities were assessed using the EuroQOL 5 dimension 3 level questionnaire. A patient-level microsimulation model based on U.S. life-tables and in-trial results was used to estimate lifetime cost-effectiveness. Although initial procedural costs were lower for CABG, total costs for the index hospitalization were $8622 higher per patient. Over the next 5 years, follow-up costs were higher with PCI, owing to more frequent repeat revascularization and higher outpatient medication costs. Nonetheless, cumulative 5-year costs remained $3641 higher per patient with CABG. Although there were only modest gains in survival with CABG during the trial period, when the in-trial results were extended to a lifetime horizon, CABG was projected to be economically attractive relative to DES-PCI, with substantial gains in both life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios <$10000 per life-year or quality-adjusted life-year gained across a broad range of assumptions regarding the effect of CABG on post-trial survival and costs. Conclusions-Despite higher initial costs, CABG is a highly cost-effective revascularization strategy compared with DES-PCI for patients with diabetes mellitus and multivessel coronary artery disease. CC : 002B12B03; 002B26E; 002B12A03; 002B21E01A FD : Cardiopathie coronaire; Diabète; Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire; Analyse coût efficacité; Economie santé; Angioplastie; Artère coronaire; Athérectomie; Stent à élution médicamenteuse; Voie percutanée; Etude comparative; Anastomose chirurgicale; Homme; Malade; Résultat; Essai clinique; Greffe; Analyse avantage coût; Appareil circulatoire; Cardiologie; Traitement instrumental; Pontage coronarien FG : Santé publique; Endocrinopathie; Chirurgie cardiaque ED : Coronary heart disease; Diabetes mellitus; Cardiovascular disease; Cost efficiency analysis; Health economy; Angioplasty; Coronary artery; Atherectomy; Drug eluting stent; Percutaneous route; Comparative study; Surgical anastomosis; Human; Patient; Result; Clinical trial; Graft; Cost benefit analysis; Circulatory system; Cardiology; Instrumentation therapy; Coronary artery bypass EG : Public health; Endocrinopathy SD : Cardiopatía coronaria; Diabetes; Aparato circulatorio patología; Análisis costo eficacia; Economía salud; Angioplastia; Arteria coronaria; Aterectomía; Stent con liberación de fármaco; Vía percutánea; Estudio comparativo; Anastomosis quirúrgica; Hombre; Enfermo; Resultado; Ensayo clínico; Injerto; Análisis coste beneficio; Aparato circulatorio; Cardiología; Tratamiento instrumental; Puente aorto coronario LO : INIST-5907.354000173275380080 51/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0135436 BDSP FT : (Modèles linéaires généralisés et extensions) ET : Generalized linear models and extensions AU : HARDIN (J.W.); HILBE (J.W.) AF : DT : Livre; Niveau monographique SO : Generalized linear models and extensions; Etats-Unis; Texas: Stata press; Da. 2012; Pp. Pagination mult.[477 p.]; ISBN 978-1-59718-105-1 LA : Anglais EA : Generalized linear models (GLMs) extend linear regression to models with a non-Gaussian, or even discrete, response. GLM theory is predicated on the exponential family of distributions - a class so rich that it includes the commonly used logit, probit, and Poisson models. Although one can fit these models in Stata by using specialized commands (for example, logit for logit models), fitting them as GLMs with Stata's GLM command offers some advantages. For example, model diagnostics may be calculated and interpreted similarly regardless of the assumed distribution. This text thoroughly covers GLMs, both theoretically and computationally, with an emphasis on Stata. The theory consists of showing how the various GLMs are special cases of the exponential family, showing general properties of this family of distributions, and showing the derivation of maximum likelihood (ML) estimators and standard errors. Hardin and Hilbe show how iteratively reweighted least squares, another method of parameter estimation, are a consequence of ML estimation using Fisher scoring. The authors also discuss different methods of estimating standard errors, including robust methods, robust methods with clustering, Newey-West, outer product of the gradient, bootstrap, and jackknife. The thorough coverage of model diagnostics includes measures of influence such as Cook's distance, several forms of residuals, the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, and various R2-type measures of explained variability. After presenting general theory, Hardin and Hilbe then break down each distribution. Each distribution has its own chapter that explains the computational details of applying the general theory to that particular distribution. Pseudocode plays a valuable role here, because it lets the authors describe computational algorithms relatively simply. Devoting an entire chapter to each distribution (or family, in GLM terms) also allows for the inclusion of real-data examples showing how Stata fits such models, as well as presenting certain diagnostics and analytical strategies that are unique to that family. The chapters on binary data and on count (Poisson) data are excellent in this regard. Hardin and Hilbe give ample attention to the problems of overdispersion and zero inflation in count-data models. The final part of the text concerns extensions of GLMs, which come in three forms. First, the authors cover multinomial responses, both ordered and unordered. Although multinomial responses are not strictly a part of GLM, the theory is similar in that one can think of a multinomial response as an extension of a binary response. The examples presented in these chapters often use the authors'own Stata programs, augmenting official Stata's capabilities. Second, GLMs may be extended to clustered data through generalized estimating equations (GEEs), and one chapter covers GEE theory and examples. Finally, GLMs may be extended by programming one's own family and link functions for use with Stata's official glm command, and the authors detail this process. In addition to other enhancements - for example, a new section on marginal effects - the third edition contains several new extended GLMs, giving Stata users new ways to capture the complexity of count data. New count models include a three-parameter negative binomial known as NB-P, Poisson inverse Gaussian (PIG), zero-inflated generalized Poisson (ZIGP), a rewritten generalized Poisson, two-and three-component finite mixture models, and a generalized censored Poisson and negative binomial. This edition has a new chapter on simulation and data synthesis, but also shows how to construct a wide variety of synthetic and Monte Carlo models throughout the book (4e de couverture) CC : 002B30A11 FD : Statistique; Logiciel; Modèle économétrique; Méthodologie ED : Statistics; Software; Econometric model; Methodology SD : Estadística; Logicial; Modelo econométrico; Metodología LO : BDSP/IRDES-Ug14, CODBAR 0062851 52/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0114025 INIST ET : Optimal Length of Transit Network with Traffic Performance Microsimulation: Application to Barcelona, Spain AU : ESTRADA (Miquel); ROBUSTE (Francesc); AMAT (Jordi); BADIA (Hugo); BARCELO (Jaume) AF : Center for Innovation in Transport, BarcelonaTech, Jordi Girona 29, Nexus II, 2-A/08034 Barcelona/Espagne (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2276; Pp. 9-16; Bibl. 15 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper examines the design of high-performance transit networks that minimize transit agency costs, the time of transit users in the system, and the travel time of car users. Surface transit services need segregated lanes to achieve a target cruising speed so that the transit network length has a significant effect on traffic performance. This effect is modeled with the macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD). The optimization proceeds in two steps. First, an analytic model defines the optimal layout of surface transit networks according to the time headway, stop spacing, line spacing, and network size variables. Then, the average travel time of the traffic network is evaluated with the MFD curve corresponding to the former transit network length. The full methodology has been implemented in the city of Barcelona, Spain. MFD was calibrated in the city's central district by means of traffic microsimulation runs. The social optimum for the number of corridors is 15, somewhat smaller than the optimization that does not consider traffic (23 corridors). CC : 001D15A; 001D14O01; 295 FD : Transport public; Réseau transport; Optimisation; Longueur; Minimisation coût; Evaluation performance; Modèle simulation; Application; Espagne; Conception système FG : Europe ED : Public transportation; Transportation network; Optimization; Length; Cost minimization; Performance evaluation; Simulation model; Application; Spain; System design EG : Europe SD : Transporte público; Red transporte; Optimización; Longitud; Minimización costo; Evaluación prestación; Modelo simulación; Aplicación; España; Concepción sistema LO : INIST-10459B.354000182519760020 53/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0111299 INIST ET : Microsimulation Approach for Predicting Crashes at Unsignalized Intersections Using Traffic Conflicts AU : CALIENDO (Ciro); GUIDA (Maurizio) AF : Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of Salerno/84084 Fisciano (SA)/Italie (1 aut.); Dept. of Electronic and Computer Engineering, Univ. of Salerno/84084 Fisciano (SA)/Italie (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; Vol. 138; No. 12; Pp. 1453-1467; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : A microsimulation approach is presented for assessing safety at unsignalized intersections using critical traffic conflicts computed in simulation models as a surrogate safety measure. The proposed approach was applied to a crash data set, collated over a 5-year monitoring period, corresponding to urban unsignalized intersections of the city of Salerno, Italy. Given that over 45% of accidents recorded at these intersections occurred more especially in six 1-h time periods during the day and that these hourly periods corresponded to the peak traffic volumes, it was considered worthwhile to investigate each of these 1-h concentrated time intervals. Traffic flows were computed by using video cameras placed at each intersection and expressed as peak-hour volumes in the analysis. A process of microsimulation model calibration and validation was carried out, and a good level of conformity between the traffic simulated in the peak hours and the corresponding one measured in the field was obtained. Subsequently, a form of software, which is compatible with the applied microsimulation software, was used for identifying the number of critical conflicts at the intersections investigated. For this aim, a collision was assumed to be very probable when conflicts are characterized by a time to collision (TTC) and post-encroachment time (PET) below the threshold values of 1.5 and 5 s, respectively. The relationship between critical conflicts computed in microsimulation models and actual crashes was found to be statistically significant. A crash-prediction regression model was then developed for the investigated intersections, which allows predicting crashes in the field on the basis of the critical conflicts computed in simulation. The proposed model was found to fit the accident data slightly better than the traffic volume-based regression model. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Sécurité trafic; Intersection; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Modèle prévision; Accident circulation; Feu signalisation; Mesure sécurité; Conflit; Analyse donnée; Comptage; Statistique; Recommandation; Intersection sans signalisation ED : Road traffic; Traffic safety; Intersection; Modeling; Simulation model; Forecast model; Traffic accident; Traffic lights; Safety measure; Conflict; Data analysis; Counting; Statistics; Recommendation; Unsignalized intersection SD : Tráfico carretera; Seguridad tráfico; Intersección; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Modelo previsión; Accidente tráfico; Semáforo; Medida seguridad; Conflicto; Análisis datos; Contaje; Estadística; Recomendación; Intersección sin semáforos LO : INIST-572E.354000502996930050 54/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0098123 INIST ET : Analysis of crime patterns through the integration of an agent-based model and a population microsimulation : Advances in Geocomputation AU : MALLESON (Nick); BIRKIN (Mark) AF : School of Geography, University of Leeds/Leeds LS2 9JT/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Computers, environment and urban systems; ISSN 0198-9715; Coden CEUSD5; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2012; Vol. 36; No. 6; Pp. 551-561; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : In recent years, criminologists have become interested in understanding crime variations at progressively finer spatial scales, right down to individual streets or even houses. To model at these fine spatial scales, and to better account for the dynamics of the crime system, agent-based models of crime are emerging. Generally, these have been more successful in representing the behaviour of criminals than their victims. In this paper it is suggested that individual representations of criminal behaviour can be enhanced by combining them with models of the criminal environment which are specified at a similar scale. In the case of burglary this means the identification of individual households as targets. We will show how this can be achieved using the complementary technique of microsimulation. The work is significant because it allows agent-based models of crime to be refined geographically (to allow, for example, individual households with varying wealth or occupancy measures) and leads to the identification of the characteristics of individual victims. CC : 001D14A06; 002B18C04; 295 FD : Zone urbaine; Criminologie; Modélisation; Analyse spatiale; Crime; Vol criminel; Orienté agent; Modèle simulation; Modèle microscopique; Reconstruction; Population; Cartographie; Royaume-Uni FG : Europe ED : Urban area; Criminology; Modeling; Spatial analysis; Crime; Criminal theft; Agent oriented; Simulation model; Microscopic model; Reconstruction; Population; Cartography; United Kingdom EG : Europe SD : Zona urbana; Criminología; Modelización; Análisis espacial; Crimen; Robo; Orientado agente; Modelo simulación; Modelo microscópico; Reconstrucción; Población; Cartografía; Reino Unido LO : INIST-20192.354000505470670060 55/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0095846 BDSP FT : Survol de Mésange : un modèle macroéconomique à l'usage du praticien AU : CABANNES (P.Y.); ERKEL-ROUSSE (H.); KLEIN (C.); LALANNE (G.); MONSO (O.); POULIQUEN (E.); SIMON (O.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : ECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUE; ISSN 0336-1454; France; Da. 2012-12; No. 451-453; Pp. 179-216; Bibl. dissem. LA : Français FA : Les modèles macroéconomiques inspirés de l'approche de la Cowles Commission connaissent une longévité remarquable dans l'administration économique. Ils y ont résisté aux critiques qui leur ont été adressées dans la littérature et ont survécu à l'apparition puis à la montée en puissance d'autres outils d'analyse macroéconomique en raison de leur utilité pour le praticien. Grâce à l'équilibre qu'ils réalisent entre degré d'ancrage à la théorie et qualité d'ajustement aux données, ces outils généralistes contribuent à éclairer un large éventail de questions se posant en milieu opérationnel. En outre, les modélisateurs y ont intégré les progrès de l'économétrie des séries temporelles et les utilisent désormais de manière combinée avec des outils d'analyse complémentaires. Développé par l'Insee et la direction générale du Trésor, Mésange est un modèle de ce type. Il comporte une quarantaine d'équations de comportement estimées économétriquement, pour un total d'environ 500 équations et trois branches modélisées (manufacturière, non manufacturière marchande et non marchande). Il existe sous deux versions, les données en volume étant calculées de deux façons différentes par les comptables nationaux trimestriels : en volumes à prix constants et à prix chaînés, ces derniers correspondant aux données publiées par l'Insee depuis 2007. Deux types d'utilisation sont exposés et illustrés. Dans le premier, l'effet de chocs sur l'économie est étudié à court, moyen et long termes. Les propriétés à long terme du modèle doivent alors être bien connues et maîtrisées. Ceci conduit à privilégier l'utilisation de la version du modèle avec volumes à prix constants. Pour le second type d'utilisation, qui s'attache à la relecture des prévisions conjoncturelles et à l'analyse du passé récent, l'adéquation aux données des comptes publiés est indispensable : on s'appuie alors sur la version du modèle avec volumes à prix chaînés (résumé d'auteur) CC : 002B30A11 FD : Modèle; Macroéconomie; Théorie; Simulation; Modèle économétrique ED : Models; Macroeconomics; Theory; Simulation; Econometric model SD : Modelo; Macroeconomía; Teoría; Simulación; Modelo econométrico LO : BDSP/IRDES-S18, CODBAR 0066753, 0066755 56/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0095845 BDSP FT : Une comparaison des modèles macro-économétriques et DSGE dans l'évaluation des politiques économiques : une comparaison basée sur les modèles Mésange et Egée AU : LAFFARGUE (J.P.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : ECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUE; ISSN 0336-1454; France; Da. 2012-12; No. 451-453; Pp. 45-68; Bibl. dissem. LA : Français FA : Le comportement de consommation des ménages, principale différence entre ces modèles, repose dans Mésange, modèle macro-économétrique keynésien, sur une fonction d'inspiration keynésienne : la consommation y est très sensible au revenu courant des ménages. Dans Egée, modèle dynamique d'équilibre général, une majorité de ménages, qualifiés de ricardiens, optimisent leurs décisions intertemporellement : leur consommation, très sensible à leurs anticipations de l'évolution future de l'économie, dépend donc peu de leur revenu courant. Si tous les ménages étaient ricardiens, Egée n'aurait pas de multiplicateur keynésien. Les structures théoriques des longs termes des deux modèles sont très voisines, de même que les effets qualitatifs qu'ils attribuent aux politiques budgétaires. Les équations de salaire y ont des bases théoriques très différentes, représentant le résultat de négociations entre partenaires sociaux pour Mésange, une offre de travail pour Egée. En dépit de cela ces équations ont des formes analytiques voisines, mais l'élasticité du salaire à l'emploi est beaucoup plus basse dans le premier modèle que dans le second. Cela conduit à des effets des politiques budgétaires plus importants dans Mésange. Les effets de court et de moyen terme des politiques budgétaires diffèrent notablement, à quelques exceptions près, entre Mésange et Egée. Ces effets sont très sensibles aux rigidités réelles et nominales introduites dans les deux modèles et aux valeurs des paramètres qui déterminent les forces relatives de ces rigidités. Largement ad hoc et se bornant à introduire des ajustements à correction d'erreur dans des équations d'équilibre au statut théorique clair dans Mésange, elles sont théoriquement mieux fondées dans Egée, encore que leur liste et les détails de leur spécification aient des bases qui peuvent parfois sembler fragiles (résumé d'auteur) CC : 002B30A11 FD : Modèle; Macroéconomie; Théorie; Simulation; Modèle économétrique ED : Models; Macroeconomics; Theory; Simulation; Econometric model SD : Modelo; Macroeconomía; Teoría; Simulación; Modelo econométrico LO : BDSP/IRDES-S18, CODBAR 0066753, 0066755 57/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0092090 INIST ET : Applicability of Traffic Microsimulation Models in Vehicle Emissions Estimates: Case Study of VISSIM AU : GUOHUA SONG; LEI YU; YANHONG ZHANG AF : Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Haidian District/Beijing 100044/Chine (1 aut.); College of Science and Technology, Texas Southern University, 3100 Cleburne Avenue/Houston, TX 77004/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Hebei Provincial Transportation Planning and Design Institute, 70 South Jianshe Street/Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050011/Chine (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2270; Pp. 132-141; Bibl. 38 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Efforts in estimating emissions by an integration of traffic simulation models and emissions models have become a fast-evolving research area. However, because of the lack of effective methods and indicators to characterize traffic behaviors, the accuracy of emissions by such an approach has not been effectively verified or evaluated. The current study is intended to examine the applicability of traffic microsimulation models in vehicle emissions estimates on the basis of the explanatory parameter of vehicle emissions-the vehicle-specific power (VSP) distribution. Analyzing massive real-world and simulated vehicle activity data showed that the results from traffic simulation could not represent real-world driving behaviors for emissions estimates. The simulated vehicle-specific power distribution led to errors that were as high as 82.8%, 53.6%, and 29.6% for nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons, and carbon monoxide emissions, respectively. Then a sensitivity analysis of 16 adjustments on eight parameters of simulation models was conducted to determine their effects on simulated VSP distributions: systematic errors existed in the use of traffic simulation models to represent second-by-second driving behaviors. The errors could not be reduced by parameter calibration on the simulation model. This study concluded that the traditional approach of integrating traffic simulation models with emissions models was not applicable for vehicle emissions estimates. The primary reasons for the errors need to be investigated further from the internal mechanism of submodels of microsimulation. On the basis of these findings, several recommendations are proposed for future studies. CC : 001D15C; 001D16C04C FD : Trafic routier; Impact environnement; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Emission polluant; Etude cas; Méthodologie; Etude comparative; Recommandation ED : Road traffic; Environment impact; Modeling; Simulation model; Pollutant emission; Case study; Methodology; Comparative study; Recommendation SD : Tráfico carretera; Impacto medio ambiente; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Emisión contaminante; Estudio caso; Metodología; Estudio comparativo; Recomendación LO : INIST-10459B.354000502918640160 58/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0092086 INIST ET : Analysis of Emissions at Congested and Uncongested Intersections with Motor Vehicle Emission Simulation 2010 AU : PAPSON (Andrew); HARTLEY (Seth); KUO (Kai-Ling) AF : ICF International, 1 Ada Street, Suite 100/Irvine, CA 92618/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); ICF International, 620 Folsom Street, Suite 620/San Francisco, CA 94107/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); ICF International, 75 East Santa Clara Street, Suite 300/San Jose, CA 95113/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2270; Pp. 124-131; Bibl. 16 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The motor vehicle emission simulator (MOVES) modeling software of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency enables researchers and practitioners to model vehicle emissions at the project level. With this tool, agencies can identify and evaluate the effectiveness of local traffic control strategies to reduce emissions at project hot spots, such as congested intersections. This study analyzes vehicle emissions at congested and uncongested signalized intersections under three traffic intersection scenarios, ranging from Level of Service (LOS) B to LOS E. Emissions are much less sensitive to congestion than control delay. A shift in operation from LOS E to LOS B reduced per vehicle nitrogen oxide emissions by 15% and particulate matter emissions by 17%, while control delay decreased by 40%. The largest sources of emissions were cruising and acceleration; they accounted for more than 80% of total emissions under all scenarios. Idling accounted for less than 18% of all intersection emissions. This analysis calculates emissions with a time-in-mode methodology that combines emission factors for each activity mode (i.e., acceleration, deceleration, cruise, idle) with a calculation of the total vehicle time spent in that mode. This approach demonstrates the contribution of each activity mode to intersection emissions and suggests opportunities for control strategies with the potential to affect intersection emissions. The streamlined methodology may be a helpful tool for agencies that are interested in analyzing project-level emissions and control strategies, but lack staff resources or expertise for microsimulation-based scenario analysis. CC : 001D15C; 001D16C04C; 001D14O02; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Intersection; Impact environnement; Emission polluant; Congestion trafic; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Méthode calcul; Analyse tendance; Accélération; Sensibilité ED : Road traffic; Intersection; Environment impact; Pollutant emission; Traffic congestion; Modeling; Simulation model; Computing method; Trend analysis; Acceleration; Sensitivity SD : Tráfico carretera; Intersección; Impacto medio ambiente; Emisión contaminante; Congestión tráfico; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Método cálculo; Análisis tendencia; Aceleración; Sensibilidad LO : INIST-10459B.354000502918640150 59/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0091579 INIST ET : Evaluating Safety at Railway Level Crossings with Microsimulation Modeling AU : TEY (Li-Sian); KIM (Inhi); FERREIRA (Luis) AF : Faculty of Engineering, Architecture, and Information Technology, University of Queensland, Brisbane St. Lucia/Queensland 4072/Australie (2 aut., 3 aut.); Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi MARA, 40450 Shah Alam/Selangor/Malaisie (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2298; Pp. 70-77; Bibl. 34 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Safety at railway level crossings (RLXs) is a worldwide issue that increasingly attracts the attention of relevant transport authorities, the rail industry, and the general public. The differences in the operation characteristics of varying types of warning devices, together with differences in crossing geometry, traffic, or train characteristics, leads to different driver behaviors at crossings. The aim of this study was to use traffic microsimulation modeling based on field video recording data to compare the safety performance of varying conventional RLX warning systems. The widely used microsimulation model VISSIM was modified to produce safety-related performance measures, namely, collision likelihood, delay, and queue length. The results showed that RLXs with an active warning system were safer than those with a passive sign by at least 17%. Integration of surrogate measures in conjunction with traffic simulation models determined which safety approach was more efficient for specified traffic and train volumes. CC : 001D15C; 001D15D; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Sécurité trafic; Chemin de fer; Trafic ferroviaire; Trafic routier; Passage à niveau; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Analyse donnée; Probabilité; Collision ED : Traffic safety; Railway; Rail traffic; Road traffic; Grade crossing; Modeling; Simulation model; Data analysis; Probability; Collision SD : Seguridad tráfico; Ferrocarril; Tráfico ferroviario; Tráfico carretera; Paso a nivel; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Análisis datos; Probabilidad; Colisión LO : INIST-10459B.354000502920110080 60/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0091494 INIST ET : Estimating Right-Turn-on-Red Capacity for Dual Right-Turn Lanes at Signalized Intersections AU : XIAOMING CHEN; YI QI; DA LI AF : Department of Transportation Studies, Texas Southern University, 3100 Cleburne Street/Houston, TX 77004-9986./Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2286; Pp. 29-38; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Dual right-turn lanes are increasingly used as a design alternative at urban intersections, primarily to accommodate high right-turn demand. For dual right-turn lanes, an accurate estimate of right-turn-on-red (RTOR) capacity can contribute to better decisions about whether RTOR should be allowed or prohibited and may lead to refined delay estimation and improved signal timing. A gap-acceptance model was formulated for predicting lane-specific RTOR capacities at dual right-turn lanes. The proposed model can represent the unequal effects of conflicting traffic streams from different cross-street lanes on RTOR capacities of dual right-turn lanes. Existing probabilistic methods were adapted to adjust RTOR capacity for shared through and right-turn lanes. Microsimulation models were developed, calibrated based on field data, and used as benchmarks to validate the proposed model. Numerical experiments indicated that the proposed model exhibits a significantly improved ability to predict RTOR capacities for dual right-turn lanes compared with the classical Harders model. CC : 001D14O02; 001D15C; 295 FD : Intersection; Réseau routier; Feu signalisation; Méthode calcul; Virage véhicule; Capacité; Modélisation; Analyse site; Modèle simulation; Etude comparative; Trafic routier ED : Intersection; Road network; Traffic lights; Computing method; Vehicle turning; Capacity; Modeling; Site analysis; Simulation model; Comparative study; Road traffic SD : Intersección; Red carretera; Semáforo; Método cálculo; Viraje vehículo; Capacidad; Modelización; Análisis emplazamiento; Modelo simulación; Estudio comparativo; Tráfico carretera LO : INIST-10459B.354000502919890040 61/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0091023 INIST ET : Performance Evaluation for Rural Two-Plus-One-Lane Highway in a Cold, Snowy Region AU : MUNEHIRO (Kazunori); TAKEMOTO (Azuma); TAKAHASHI (Naoto); WATANABE (Masayoshi); ASANO (Motoki) AF : Traffic Engineering Research Team, Civil Engineering Research Institute for Cold Region, Public Works Research Institute/Sapporo/Japon (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.); Cold Region Road Engineering Research Group, Civil Engineering Research Institute for Cold Region, Public Works Research Institute/Sapporo/Japon (5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; No. 2272; Pp. 161-172; Bibl. 17 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Hokkaido, Japan, is a cold, snowy island where winter lasts for approximately 5 months, from November to March. Road surfaces are usually dry, but frequently covered with compacted snow. A measure to improve existing two-lane highways to two-plus-one (2+ 1) lane highways by installing an auxiliary lane has been introduced to offer a better quality of service to road users. A sensitivity analysis was undertaken with a traffic flow microsimulation program, SIM-R, to evaluate the effectiveness of 2+1-lane highway sections, which were built by adding an auxiliary lane to rural two-lane highways, in a cold, snowy region. The road surface conditions under analysis were dry and covered with compacted snow. The hourly traffic volumes were changed from 100 to 1,000 vehicles per hour. Evaluation indicators were the average travel speed, the percentage of following vehicles, and the density of following vehicles. The results showed that the average travel speed decreased, the follower percentage increased, and the follower density increased as the hourly traffic volumes increased. Moreover, the road performance decreased on the road covered with compacted snow compared with the dry road. The installation of an auxiliary lane at certain intervals was also found to improve the level of service for two-lane highways on both the dry road and the road with compacted snow. CC : 001D14O05; 001D15C; 295 FD : Réseau routier; Climat froid; Japon; Evaluation performance; Indicateur; Service; Trafic routier; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Analyse sensibilité; Neige; Compactage FG : Asie ED : Road network; Cold climate; Japan; Performance evaluation; Indicator; Service; Road traffic; Modeling; Simulation model; Sensitivity analysis; Snow; Compaction EG : Asia SD : Red carretera; Clima frío; Japón; Evaluación prestación; Indicador; Servicio; Tráfico carretera; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Análisis sensibilidad; Nieve; Compactación LO : INIST-10459B.354000502918800190 62/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0088293 INIST ET : Comparative Effectiveness of Alternative Prostate-Specific Antigen-Based Prostate Cancer Screening Strategies: Model Estimates of Potential Benefits and Harms AU : GULATI (Roman); GORE (John L.); ETZIONI (Ruth) AF : Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and University of Washington/Seattle, Washington/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Annals of internal medicine; ISSN 0003-4819; Coden AIMEAS; Etats-Unis; Da. 2013; Vol. 158; No. 3; Pp. 145-153; Bibl. 35 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recently concluded that the harms of existing prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening strategies outweigh the benefits. Objective: To evaluate comparative effectiveness of alternative PSA screening strategies. Design: Microsimulation model of prostate cancer incidence and mortality quantifying harms and lives saved for alternative PSA screening strategies. Data Sources: National and trial data on PSA growth, screening and biopsy patterns, incidence, treatment distributions, treatment efficacy, and mortality. Target Population: A contemporary cohort of U.S. men. Time Horizon: Lifetime. Perspective: Societal. Intervention: 35 screening strategies that vary by start and stop ages, screening intervals, and thresholds for biopsy referral. Outcome Measures: PSA tests, false-positive test results, cancer detected, overdiagnoses, prostate cancer deaths, lives saved, and months of life saved. Results of Base-Case Analysis: Without screening, the risk for prostate cancer death is 2.86%. A reference strategy that screens men aged 50 to 74 years annually with a PSA threshold for biopsy referral of 4 &mgr;g/L reduces the risk for prostate cancer death to 2.15%, with risk for overdiagnosis of 3.3%. A strategy that uses higher PSA thresholds for biopsy referral in older men achieves a similar risk for prostate cancer death (2.23%) but reduces the risk for overdiagnosis to 2.3%. A strategy that screens biennially with longer screening intervals for men with low PSA levels achieves similar risks for prostate cancer death (2.27%) and overdiagnosis (2.4%), but reduces total tests by 59% and false-positive results by 50%. Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Varying incidence inputs or reducing the survival improvement due to screening did not change conclusions. Limitation: The model is a simplification of the natural history of prostate cancer, and improvement in survival due to screening is uncertain. Conclusion: Compared with standard screening, PSA screening strategies that use higher thresholds for biopsy referral for older men and that screen men with low PSA levels less frequently can reduce harms while preserving lives. Primary Funding Source: National Cancer Institute and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. CC : 002B01; 002B14D02; 002B20B02 FD : Cancer de la prostate; Etude comparative; Efficacité; Antigène spécifique prostate; Marqueur tumoral; Prostate; Dépistage; Stratégie; Modèle; Estimation; Danger; Médecine FG : Appareil urogénital; Pathologie de l'appareil génital mâle; Pathologie de l'appareil urinaire; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Pathologie de la prostate ED : Prostate cancer; Comparative study; Efficiency; Prostate specific antigen; Tumoral marker; Prostate; Medical screening; Strategy; Models; Estimation; Danger; Medicine EG : Urogenital system; Male genital diseases; Urinary system disease; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Prostate disease SD : Cáncer de la próstata; Estudio comparativo; Eficacia; Antigeno específico prostata; Marcador tumoral; Prostata; Descubrimiento; Estrategia; Modelo; Estimación; Peligro; Medicina LO : INIST-2014.354000506361910010 63/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0063029 BDSP FT : Un outil pour l'étude des dépenses de santé et des &dquot;restes à charge&dquot; des ménages : le modèle Omar AU : LARDELLIER (R.); LEGAL (R.); RAYNAUD (D.); VIDAL (G.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : ECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUE; ISSN 0336-1454; France; Da. 2012-11; No. 450-2011; Pp. 47-77; Bibl. dissem. LA : Français FA : Les &dquot;restes à charge&dquot; des ménages correspondent à la part de leurs dépenses de santé qui n'est couverte ni par l'assurance obligatoire de base ni par la couverture complémentaire. Leur connaissance est indispensable au pilotage du système d'assurance maladie. Au niveau macroéconomique, ils sont suivis grâce aux Comptes de la santé. Mais on s'attend à ce que leur poids soit très variable d'un individu à l'autre. Or il n'y a pas de source individuelle qui permette leur observation directe à niveau fin. Cet article présente une démarche qui vise à combler cette lacune, celle du modèle Omar (Outil de Microsimulation pour l'Analyse des Restes à charge). Ce modèle reconstitue le partage de la dépense individuelle entre les trois financeurs : la Sécurité sociale, l'organisme complémentaire et l'individu. Il le fait en s'appuyant sur deux sources. La première est la source Epas-SPS qui apparie l'enquête Santé et Protection Sociale de l'Irdes et des données administratives de la Caisse nationale d'assurance maladie. La seconde est une enquête de la Drees auprès des organismes de couverture complémentaire. Cette dernière permet d'identifier les principales caractéristiques des contrats qu'ils offrent à leurs affiliés. Les informations de ces deux sources sont combinées et complétées par diverses techniques d'imputation CC : 002B30A11 FD : Dépense; Santé; Financement; Soin; Niveau vie; Aspect économique; Evaluation; Modèle; Méthode; France FG : Europe ED : Expenditure; Health; Financing; Care; Standard of living; Economic aspect; Evaluation; Models; Method; France EG : Europe SD : Gasto; Salud; Financiación; Cuidado; Aspecto económico; Evaluación; Modelo; Método; Francia LO : BDSP/IRDES-S18, CODBAR 0066661, 0066660 64/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0061322 INIST ET : Calibration of a Congestion Load Model for Highway Bridges Using Traffic Microsimulation AU : CAPRANI (Colin C.) AF : Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Dublin Institute of Technology/Dublin/Irlande (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Structural engineering international; ISSN 1016-8664; Suisse; Da. 2012; Vol. 22; No. 3; Pp. 342-348; Bibl. 31 ref. LA : Anglais EA : For short- to medium-length bridges, the governing traffic loading scenario may be that of congested traffic. This paper presents the calibration of a congested traffic load model using traffic microsimulation. A range of bridge lengths, forms of construction, and load effects is considered. Different driving parameters and traffic composition are also considered. The influence of these parameters on the resulting load effect is determined. For each of these scenarios, a calibrated gap between trucks is determined to replicate the traffic microsimulation results. This calibrated gap can then be used as part of a simpler congestion model, suitable for bridge assessment. Such simpler models can be used to simulate much longer periods than are possible using traffic microsimulation. It is found that the calibrated gaps are either similar to, or are larger than, previous work in the area. Consequently, this approach helps to remove some conservatism from congested traffic load effect estimation, and this may find valuable application in the assessment of existing bridge structures. CC : 001D14M01; 001D15C; 001D14C03; 295 FD : Pont route; Congestion trafic; Trafic routier; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Charge trafic; Etalonnage; Analyse statistique ED : Road bridge; Traffic congestion; Road traffic; Modeling; Simulation model; Traffic load; Calibration; Statistical analysis SD : Puente carretera; Congestión tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Carga tráfico; Contraste; Análisis estadístico LO : INIST-13726B.354000506672610070 65/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0060426 INIST ET : Activity planning processes in the Agent-based Dynamic Activity Planning and Travel Scheduling (ADAPTS) model AU : AULD (Joshua); MOHAMMADIAN (Abolfazl(kouros)) AF : Dept. of Civil & Materials Engineering, University of Illinois at Chicago, 842 West Taylor Street/Chicago, IL 60607-7023/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice; ISSN 0965-8564; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2012; Vol. 46; No. 8; Pp. 1386-1403; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper describes the representation of the activity planning process utilized in a new activity-based microsimulation model called the ADAPTS (Agent-based Dynamic Activity Planning and Travel Scheduling) model, which dynamically simulates activity and travel planning and scheduling. The model utilizes a dynamic activity planning framework within the larger overall microsimulation system, which is a computational process model that attempts to replicate the decisions which comprise time-dependent activity scheduling. The model presents a step forward in which the usual concepts of activity generation and activity scheduling are significantly enhanced by adding an additional component referred to as activity planning in which the various attributes which describe the activity are determined. The model framework, therefore, separates activity planning from activity generation and treats all three components, generation, planning and scheduling, as separate discrete but dynamic events within the overall microsimulation. The development of the planning order model, which determines when and in what order each activity planning decision is made is the specific focus of this paper. The models comprising the planning order framework are developed using recent survey data from a GPS-based prompted recall survey. The model development, estimation, validation, and its use within the overall ADAPTS system are discussed. A significant finding of the study is the verification of the apparent transferability of the activity planning order model. CC : 001D15B; 001D15A FD : Transports; Ordonnancement; Modélisation; Planification; Activité; Modèle comportement; Modèle probit; Flexibilité; Enquête; Orienté agent; Validation ED : Transportation; Scheduling; Modeling; Planning; Activity; Behavior model; Probit model; Flexibility; Survey; Agent oriented; Validation SD : Transportes; Reglamento; Modelización; Planificación; Actividad; Modelo comportamiento; Modelo probit; Flexibilidad; Encuesta; Orientado agente; Validación LO : INIST-12377A.354000506679560190 66/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0038726 INIST ET : Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Primary Arthroscopic Stabilization Versus Nonoperative Treatment for First-Time Anterior Glenohumeral Dislocations AU : CRALL (Timothy S.); BISHOP (Julius A.); GUTTMAN (Dan); KOCHER (Mininder); BOZIC (Kevin); LUBOWITZ (James H.) AF : Sierra Park Orthopaedics and Sports Medicine, Mammoth Hospital/Mammoth Lakes, California/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Stanford University/Redwood City, California/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Taos Orthopaedic Institute, Taos/New Mexico/Etats-Unis (3 aut., 6 aut.); Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Children's Hospital Boston/Boston, Massachusetts/Etats-Unis (4 aut.); Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, University of California, San Francisco/San Francisco, California/Etats-Unis (5 aut.); Mission Bay Ortho Institute/San Francisco, California/Etats-Unis (5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Arthroscopy : (Print); ISSN 0749-8063; Coden ARTHE3; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; Vol. 28; No. 12; Pp. 1755-1765; Bibl. 41 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Purpose: The purpose of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of initial observation versus surgery for first-time anterior shoulder dislocation. Methods: The clinical scenario of first-time anterior glenohumeral dislocation was simulated using a Markov model (where variables change over time depending on previous states). Nonoperative outcomes include success (no recurrence) and recurrence; surgical outcomes include success, recurrence, and complications of infection or stiffness. Probabilities for outcomes were determined from published literature. Costs were tabulated from Medicare Current Procedural Terminology data, as well as hospital and office billing records. We performed microsimulation and probabilistic sensitivity analysis running 6 models for 1,000 patients over a period of 15 years. The 6 models tested were male versus female patients aged 15 years versus 25 years versus 35 years. Results: Primary surgery was less costly and more effective for 15-year-old boys, 15-year-old girls, and 25-year-old men. For the remaining scenarios (25-year-old women and 35-year-old men and women), primary surgery was also more effective but was more costly. However, for these scenarios, primary surgery was still very cost-effective (cost per quality-adjusted life-year, <$25,000). After 1 recurrence, surgery was less costly and more effective for all scenarios. Conclusions: Primary arthroscopic stabilization is a clinically effective and cost-effective treatment for first-time anterior shoulder dislocations in the cohorts studied. By use of a willingness-to-pay threshold of $25,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, surgery was more cost-effective than nonoperative treatment for the majority of patients studied in the model. CC : 002B24E05; 002B25I FD : Arthroscopie; Analyse coût; Stabilisation; Etude comparative; Traitement; Articulation glénohumérale; Epaule; Chirurgie orthopédique; Pathologie du système ostéoarticulaire FG : Endoscopie ED : Arthroscopy; Cost analysis; Stabilization; Comparative study; Treatment; Glenohumeral joint; Shoulder; Orthopedic surgery; Diseases of the osteoarticular system EG : Endoscopy SD : Artroscopia; Análisis costo; Estabilización; Estudio comparativo; Tratamiento; Articulación glenohumeral; Hombro; Cirugía ortopédica; Sistema osteoarticular patología LO : INIST-20604.354000505486360040 67/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0037742 INIST ET : Towards integrated land use and transportation: A dynamic disequilibrium based microsimulation framework for built space markets AU : FAROOQ (Bilal); MILLER (Eric J.) AF : Transport and Mobility Laboratory, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, GCA3 339, Station 18/1015, Lausanne, Vaud/Suisse (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, Cities Centre, University of Toronto, 455 Spadina Avenue/Toronto, Ontario, M5S 2G8/Canada (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice; ISSN 0965-8564; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2012; Vol. 46; No. 7; Pp. 1030-1053; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : Investigating the factors and processes that influence the spatiotemporal distribution of built space and population in an urban area, plays an extremely important role in our greater understanding of the urban travel behaviour. Existing location of activity centres, especially home and work, strongly influences the short-term individual-level decisions such as mode of transportation, and long-term household-level decisions such as change in job and residential location. Conditions in the built space market also affect households' and firms' location and relocation decisions, and hence influence the general travel patterns in an urban area. In this context, this paper addresses a very important, but at the same time, not very widely investigated dimension that plays a key role in the evolution of built space and population distribution: Market. A disequilibrium based microsimulation modelling framework is developed for the built space markets. This framework is then used to operationalize the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area's owner-occupied housing market within Integrated Land Use Transportation and Environment (ILUTE) modelling system. Simulation results captured heterogeneity in the transaction prices, due to type of dwellings and different market conditions, in a very disaggregate fashion. The proposed methodology is validated by running the simulation from 1986 to 2006 and comparing the results with the historic data. CC : 001D15A; 001D14A06; 001D14B; 295 FD : Transports; Occupation sol; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Modèle microscopique; Modèle dynamique; Etude marché; Milieu construit; Formulation; Etude théorique; Modèle mathématique; Application; Logement habitation; Simulation ED : Transportation; Land use; Modeling; Simulation model; Microscopic model; Dynamic model; Market survey; Built environment; Formulation; Theoretical study; Mathematical model; Application; Housing; Simulation SD : Transportes; Ocupación terreno; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Modelo microscópico; Modelo dinámico; Estudio mercado; Medio construido; Formulación; Estudio teórico; Modelo matemático; Aplicación; Habitación; Simulación LO : INIST-12377A.354000505247360050 68/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0034265 INIST ET : Comparison of static vehicle flow assignment methods and microsimulations for a personal rapid transit network AU : SCHWEIZER (Joerg); DANESI (Antonio); RUPI (Federico); TRAVERSI (Emiliano); BIELLII (Maurizio); ORCO (Mauro Dell'); SMITH (Michael J.); ZAK (Jacek) AF : Department of Civil, Environmental and Materials Engineering (DICAM), University of Bologna/Bologna/Italie (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); Technische Universität Dortmund, Fakultät für Mathematik/Allemagne (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of advanced transportation; ISSN 0197-6729; Coden JATRDC; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; Vol. 46; No. 4; Pp. 340-350; Bibl. 8 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This article describes a static assignment method for a class of emerging public transport systems called personal rapid transit (PRT). PRT is a fully automated public transportation system where small-size vehicles run on exclusive guideways. Because of its automated, on-demand service, PRT must be able to automatically reroute empty vehicles after use to supply stations with waiting passengers. Consequently, any PRT traffic assignment must take into account the flow of empty vehicles as well as the flow of vehicles with passengers. The PRT assignment methods described in this work are based on linear programming models. One of the assignment methods has been applied to a realistic PRT network, and the statically assigned flows have been compared with averaged link flows produced by a PRT microsimulation. It is shown that the proposed static assignment method is not only useful to identify capacity bottlenecks of the planned PRT network but also serves to benchmark the microsimulator's vehicle management algorithms. CC : 001D15D; 001D15B FD : Transport voyageur; Transport public; Véhicule guidé; Etude comparative; Ecoulement trafic; Modèle simulation; Modèle microscopique; Acheminement; Affectation trafic; Congestion trafic; Simulateur; Simulation numérique; Exemple; Italie; Transport en commun individuel; Véhicule vide FG : Europe ED : Passenger transportation; Public transportation; Guided vehicle; Comparative study; Traffic flow; Simulation model; Microscopic model; Forwarding; Traffic assignment; Traffic congestion; Simulator; Numerical simulation; Example; Italy; Personal rapid transit; Empty vehicle EG : Europe SD : Transporte pasajero; Transporte público; Vehículo guiado; Estudio comparativo; Flujo tráfico; Modelo simulación; Modelo microscópico; Encaminamiento; Afectación tráfico; Congestión tráfico; Simulador; Simulación numérica; Ejemplo; Italia LO : INIST-15009.354000506804700030 69/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0033237 INIST ET : OR Forum-A POMDP Approach to Personalize Mammography Screening Decisions : A POMDP Approach to Personalize Mammography Screening Decisions AU : AYER (Turgay); ALAGOZ (Oguzhan); STOUT (Natasha K.) AF : H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology/Atlanta, Georgia 30332/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin, Madison/Madison, Wisconsin 53706/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School/Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute/Boston, Massachusetts 02115/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Operations research; ISSN 0030-364X; Coden OPREAI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; Vol. 60; No. 5; Pp. 1019-1034; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : Breast cancer is the most common nonskin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer death in U.S. women. Although mammography is the most effective modality for breast cancer screening, it has several potential risks, including high false-positive rates. Therefore, the balance of benefits and risks, which depend on personal characteristics, is critical in designing a mammography screening schedule. In contrast to prior research and existing guidelines that consider population-based screening recommendations, we propose a personalized mammography screening policy based on the prior screening history and personal risk characteristics of women. We formulate a finite-horizon, partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) model for this problem. Our POMDP model incorporates two methods of detection (self or screen), age-specific unobservable disease progression, and age-specific mammography test characteristics. We solve this POMDP optimally after setting transition probabilities to values estimated from a validated microsimulation model. Additional published data is used to specify other model inputs such as sensitivity and specificity of test results. Our results show that our proposed personalized screening schedules outperform the existing guidelines with respect to the total expected quality-adjusted life years, while significantly decreasing the number of mammograms and false-positives. We also report the lifetime risk of developing undetected invasive cancer associated with each screening scenario. CC : 001A02H01J; 001D01A08; 002B28C; 001D01A14 FD : Décision Markov; Observabilité partielle; Criblage; Dépistage; Femme; Risque élevé; Recommandation; Histoire; Horizon fini; Age; Diagnostic; Probabilité transition; Spécificité; Qualité totale; Gestion entreprise; Durabilité; Durée vie; Modélisation; Scénario; Classification; Programmation dynamique; Analyse décision; Prise de décision; Tumeur maligne FG : Homme; Cancer ED : Markov decision; Partial observability; Screening; Medical screening; Woman; High risk; Recommendation; History; Finite horizon; Age; Diagnosis; Transition probability; Specificity; Total quality; Firm management; Durability; Lifetime; Modeling; Script; Classification; Dynamic programming; Decision analysis; Decision making; Malignant tumor EG : Human; Cancer SD : Decisión Markov; Observabilidad parcial; Cernido; Descubrimiento; Mujer; Riesgo alto; Recomendación; Historia; Horizonte finito; Edad; Diagnóstico; Probabilidad transición; Especificidad; Calidad total; Administración empresa; Durabilidad; Tiempo vida; Modelización; Argumento; Clasificación; Programación dinámica; Análisis decisión; Toma decision; Tumor maligno LO : INIST-7150.354000502924740010 70/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0032895 INIST ET : Computing the cost of traffic congestion: a microsimulation exercise of the City of Antofagasta, Chile AU : GARRIDO (Nicolas) AF : Department of Economics, Universidad Católica del Norte, Avda Angamos 0610/Antofagasta/Chili (1 aut.); Núcleo Iniciativa Milenio Políticas Públicas y Ciencia Regional, Avda Angamos 0610/Antofagasta/Chili (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation planning and technology : (Print); ISSN 0308-1060; Coden TPLTAK; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2012; Vol. 35; No. 8; Pp. 752-768; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper computes the cost of traffic congestion in the city of Antofagasta in Chile. A microsimulation is implemented where all the agents of the system travel across the transport network. The congestion cost is computed through the aggregation of the opportunity cost of people waiting within the transport system, as a consequence of traffic congestion. Monte Carlo experiments produced an approximated congestion cost of US$1.02 million during a typical working day. Moreover, the simulation provides useful information about the average traveling time for the 14 districts of the city. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Gestion trafic; Trafic routier urbain; Congestion trafic; Chili; Analyse coût; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Modèle microscopique; Modèle comportement; Transport public FG : Amérique du Sud; Amérique ED : Traffic management; Urban road traffic; Traffic congestion; Chile; Cost analysis; Modeling; Simulation model; Microscopic model; Behavior model; Public transportation EG : South America; America SD : Gestión tráfico; Tráfico vial urbano; Congestión tráfico; Chile; Análisis costo; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Modelo microscópico; Modelo comportamiento; Transporte público LO : INIST-15632.354000505480400020 71/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0032635 INIST ET : A review of current methods to generate synthetic spatial microdata using reweighting and future directions AU : HERMES (Kerstin); POULSEN (Michael) AF : Department of Environment and Geography, Faculty of Science, Macquarie University/NSW 2109/Australie (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Computers, environment and urban systems; ISSN 0198-9715; Coden CEUSD5; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2012; Vol. 36; No. 4; Pp. 281-290; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : Synthetic spatial microdata enable analyses of artificial populations in the form of individual unit record files at a small area level. They allow analyses of estimates of variables that are otherwise not available at this small area level, while preserving the confidentiality of personal data. This type of data has mainly been used to provide more detailed census data and for spatial microsimulation modelling: for example to analyse social policy and population changes, transportation, marketing strategies or health outcomes. We argue that many potential applications for synthetic spatial microdata remain to be developed. One reason for this is the lack of information about and confidence in this type of data. Introductory literature about creating synthetic spatial microdata and discussions on the decisions that need to be taken during the data generation process are rare. In this paper, we therefore review currently existing methods to generate synthetic spatial microdata in a manner which will support most readers who are considering this approach, and we address the main issues of the data generation process with regards to analyses of neighbourhood level data. We discuss further possible applications of these data and the importance of synthetic spatial microdata. CC : 001D14C03; 001D14A06; 295 FD : Modélisation; Modèle microscopique; Analyse donnée; Analyse spatiale; Quartier voisinage; Etude comparative ED : Modeling; Microscopic model; Data analysis; Spatial analysis; Residential neighborhoods; Comparative study SD : Modelización; Modelo microscópico; Análisis datos; Análisis espacial; Barrio vecindad; Estudio comparativo LO : INIST-20192.354000505207180010 72/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0016083 INIST ET : A microsimulation model of urban energy use: Modelling residential space heating demand in ILUTE AU : CHINGCUANCO (Franco); MILLER (Eric J.) AF : Division of Engineering Science, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street/Toronto, ON M5S 1A4/Canada (1 aut.); Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 455 Spadina Avenue, Suite 400/Toronto, ON M5S 2G8/Canada (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Computers, environment and urban systems; ISSN 0198-9715; Coden CEUSD5; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2012; Vol. 36; No. 2; Pp. 186-194; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Rapid urbanization, climate change and energy security warrant a more detailed understanding of how cities today consume energy. Agent-based, integrated microsimulation models of urban systems provide an excellent platform to accomplish this task, as they can capture both the short- and long-term decisions of firms and households which directly affect urban energy consumption. This paper presents the current effort towards developing an urban energy model for the Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment (ILUTE) modelling system. As a first step, a model for the residential space heating system evolution of the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area was developed. A bottom-up approach, where individual uses are aggregated, was then employed to estimate the region's space heating demand. Conventional bottom-up methodologies often suffer from insensitivity to either technological or behavioral factors. It is argued that coupling a discrete choice model with building energy simulation software solves this problem. A joint logit model of heating fuel and equipment choice was developed and estimated using Toronto household microdata. The HOT2000 software was then used to compute individual dwelling unit space heating use. The entire residential energy analysis was performed in tandem with the housing market and demographic evolution processes. This allows the endogenous formation of the required inputs as well as adherence to the core ILUTE framework of integrated modelling. This residential space heating model is a first step towards a comprehensive urban energy end-use model. Further steps include developing similar models for other residential end-uses, such electricity and hot water consumption, as well as extensions to the commercial and transportation sectors. The entire effort aims to introduce an alternate methodology to modelling urban energy consumption that takes advantage of agent-based microsimulation to enhance and address issues with current approaches. CC : 001D14A06; 001D14C03; 295 FD : Zone urbaine; Modélisation; Analyse énergétique; Zone résidentielle; Orienté agent; Intégration; Modèle simulation; Urbanisation; Occupation sol; Environnement; Transports; Chauffage; Demande; Analyse donnée ED : Urban area; Modeling; Energy analysis; Residential zone; Agent oriented; Integration; Simulation model; Urbanization; Land use; Environment; Transportation; Heating; Demand; Data analysis SD : Zona urbana; Modelización; Análisis energético; Zona residencial; Orientado agente; Integración; Modelo simulación; Urbanización; Ocupación terreno; Medio ambiente; Transportes; Calefacción; Petición; Análisis datos LO : INIST-20192.354000509269980080 73/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0001197 BDSP FT : Dépenses de santé et restes à charge des ménages : le modèle de microsimulation Omar AU : LARDELLIER (Pascal); LEGAL (Renaud); RAYNAUD (Denis); VIDAL (Guillaume) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau monographique SO : SERIE SOURCES ET METHODES - DOCUMENT DE TRAVAIL - DREES; France; Da. 2012-08; No. 34; ; Pp. 63 p. LA : Français FA : La Drees a construit un Outil de microsimulation pour l'Analyse des restes à charge (Omar). Celui-ci permet de simuler au niveau individuel le partage de la dépense entre les trois financeurs : la Sécurité sociale, l'organisme complémentaire et l'individu. En outre, Omar a désormais été rapproché de l'outil Ines, rendant ainsi possible des études plus larges de la redistribution. Cet article, de nature méthodologique, présente les différentes étapes de construction d'Omar. En fin d'article, une étude de la sensibilité des valeurs simulées à la méthode d'imputation des contrats offre un aperçu des possibilités offertes par ce nouvel outil CC : 002B30A11 FD : Dépense; Santé; Méthodologie ED : Expenditure; Health; Methodology SD : Gasto; Salud; Metodología LO : BDSP/MIN-SANTE-BIB00062413 74/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0001112 BDSP FT : Projections du coût de l'APA et des caractéristiques de ses bénéficiaires à l'horizon 2040 à l'aide du modèle Destinie AU : MARBOT (C.) AF : Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques. (I.N.S.E.). E Direction des Etudes et Synthèses Economiques. Paris./France DT : Rapport; Niveau monographique SO : Projections du coût de l'APA et des caractéristiques de ses bénéficiaires à l'horizon 2040 à l'aide du modèle Destinie; France; Paris: Insee; Da. 2012-01; RP/; Pp. 58 p. LA : Français FA : Confrontés au vieillissement de leur population, les pays développés font face au défi de fournir une aide à un nombre croissant de personnes âgées dépendantes. Il est donc crucial de connaître le nombre de personnes qui seront concernées et, étant donnés les systèmes de retraite et de protection sociale, combien leur prise en charge coûtera. Le modèle de microsimulation des retraites'Destinie'a été étendu en 2011 de façon à rendre possibles des projections dans le cadre de la réforme de la dépendance. Pour cet exercice, la microsimulation présente l'avantage de simuler des trajectoires au niveau individuel, ce qui permet de projeter un agrégat en tenant compte de l'évolution dans le temps de la distribution des caractéristiques individuelles. Elle rend également possible la prise en compte de barèmes complexes (non linéaires) qui demandent un calcul au niveau individuel. Ce document présente la méthode de mise en oeuvre d'un &dquot;module dépendance&dquot; dans le modèle Destinie et ses résultats. Une première série de résultats concerne la caractérisation de la population des dépendants et la présence d'aidants. Dans un deuxième temps, différentes variantes portant sur les tendances démographiques et économiques ont été considérées pour estimer une partie du besoin futur de financement de la dépendance, celle liée à l'APA. Il représenterait entre 0,54% et 0,71% du PIB à l'horizon 2040, selon le degré d'optimisme du scénario CC : 002B30A11 FD : Personne âgée; Autonomie; Dépendance; Financement; PIB; Logement habitation; Structure sociale; Modèle; Projection perspective; Méthodologie; France FG : Homme; Europe ED : Elderly; Autonomy; Dependence; Financing; Gross domestic product; Housing; Social structure; Models; Perspective projection; Methodology; France EG : Human; Europe SD : Anciano; Autonomía; Dependencia; Financiación; PIB; Habitación; Estructura social; Modelo; Proyección perspectiva; Metodología; Francia LO : BDSP/IRDES 75/793 NO : PASCAL 13-0000883 BDSP FT : Le système de retraite italien compense-t-il les inégalités hommes-femmes sur le marché du travail ? AU : LEOMBRUNI (R.); MOSCA (M.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : RETRAITE ET SOCIETE; ISSN 1167-4687; France; Da. 2012-08; No. 63; Pp. 139-163; Bibl. dissem.; tabl., graph. LA : Français FA : En Italie, on recense actuellement de grandes disparités hommes-femmes en matière professionnelle, en particulier pour ce qui est des salaires et des taux d'activité. Le présent article examine la situation en considérant les revenus sur le cycle de vie, en récapitulant d'une part, toutes les disparités de carrière et en examinant d'autre part, si la redistribution établie par le système de retraite peut atténuer les différences. En exploitant une base de données originale portant sur l'ensemble des carrières professionnelles, les auteurs expliquent comment l'écart de salaire se creuse constamment avec l'âge et comment les femmes tendent à cumuler un nombre d'années d'activité ouvrant droit à la retraite. Ces deux facteurs ont un effet sur le calcul des pensions, si bien qu'au moment du départ en retraite, les écarts entre les sexes sont encore plus marqués. Un modèle de microsimulation est utilisé pour montrer que le système de retraite compense partiellement la situation du marché du travail, en atténuant les différences de revenus sur le cycle de vie. Cependant, en raison de la transition actuelle vers un système actuariellement neutre, cet effet disparaîtra, ce qui soulève des interrogations sur l'évolution future des disparités de revenus entre hommes et femmes. (R.A.) CC : 002B30A11 FD : Donnée statistique; Emploi; Femme; Retraite; Marché travail; Salaire; Italie; Revenu individuel; Modèle; Evolution FG : Homme; Europe ED : Statistical data; Employment; Woman; Retirement; Labour market; Wage; Italy; Personal income; Models; Evolution EG : Human; Europe SD : Dato estadístico; Empleo; Mujer; Jubilación; Mercado trabajo; Salario; Italia; Renta personal; Modelo; Evolución LO : BDSP/FNG-27049, FNCOLL 76/793 NO : FRANCIS 13-0324953 INIST ET : The Impact of Tax-Benefit Reforms on Labor Supply in a Simulated Nash-bargaining Framework AU : BARGAIN (Olivier); MOREAU (Nicolas) AF : Aix-Marseille School of Economics (AMSE), DEFI, Château Lafarge, Route des Milles/13290 Les Mille, Aix-en-Provence/France (1 aut.); Centre d'Economie et de Management de l'Océan Indien (CEMOI), Université de la Reunion, BP 7151/97715 Saint-Denis Mess/France (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of family and economic issues; ISSN 1058-0476; Allemagne; Da. 2013; Vol. 34; No. 1; Pp. 77-86; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Several theoretical contributions have suggested to model household behavior as a Nash-bargaining game. Yet very few attempts have been made to operationalize cooperative models of labor supply for policy analysis. In this paper, we implement a Nash-bargaining model with external threat points (divorce) into the microsimulation of tax-benefit policy reforms in France. The observation of divorced individuals is used to predict outside options and (some) of the preferences for individuals living in couples. Benchmark simulations are conducted in a way that guarantees consistency with the Nash bargaining setting, regularity conditions and observed behavior. We examine how the labor supply of couples adjusts to shocks on threat points, either hypothetical or generated by a radical tax-benefit reform. CC : 52146; 521 FD : Comportement économique; Impôt; France; Divorce; Simulation; Réforme ED : Economic behavior; Tax; France; Divorce; Simulation; Reform LO : INIST-26663.354000506519190070 77/793 NO : FRANCIS 13-0194507 INIST FT : Réformer le système de remboursement pour les soins de ville, une analyse par microsimulation ET : (Reforming the Primary-Care Reimbursement System: A Microsimulation-Based Analysis) AU : GEOFFARD (Pierre-Yves); DE LAGASNERIE (Grégoire) AF : Paris School of Economics (CNRS), EHESS, 48 bd Jourdan/75014, Paris/France (1 aut.); Paris School of Economics (PSE), EHESS, 48 bd Jourdan/75014, Paris/France (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Economie et statistique : (Ed. française); ISSN 0336-1454; France; Da. 2012; No. 455-56; 89-113, 207, 210, 213 [28 p.]; Abs. anglais/allemand/espagnol; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Français FA : Les évolutions du système de remboursement des dépenses de soins par l'assurance publique ont progressivement diminué la couverture publique du risque maladie. Ce système laisse à la charge des assurés des sommes qui peuvent s'avérer importantes lorsque ceux-ci traversent des épisodes de maladie longs et coûteux, et parfois même lorsqu'ils bénéficient d'exonérations au titre d'une affection de longue durée. L'assurance complémentaire est de fait devenue nécessaire. Cependant, 7 % de la population ne jouit pas d'une telle assurance. Cet article étudie une réforme possible de l'assurance maladie obligatoire qui prend la forme d'un plafond annuel de la participation financière en soins de ville. Un tel plafond serait financé par l'instauration de franchises annuelles. Nous évaluons cette réforme à partir de micro-simulations appliquées aux données de l'enquête santé-soins médicaux 2003, appariée avec les données de remboursement du SNII-RAM. La grande taille de l'échantillon permet de simuler finement les participations financières aux dépenses de soins sous divers scénarios. Les résultats des simulations permettent alors de juger les différentes réformes du système de remboursement des dépenses de soins du point de vue de l'équité, de la couverture du risque financier, ainsi que de la faisabilité politique. Le plafond permet notamment une réelle amélioration de la prise en charge des patients ayant des dépenses importantes. Leur risque maladie et le risque de devoir payer une lourde participation financière sont en effet mieux couverts. Parallèlement, le système de remboursement devient plus équitable lorsque le plafond est fixé en proportion du revenu. CC : 52164; 52163; 521 FD : Système de santé; Assurance maladie; Risque; Maladie; Régime complémentaire; Soin médical; Remboursement; Dépense; Revenu ED : Health system; Health insurance; Hazard; Illness; Complementary Health Care System; Health Care; Repayment; Expenditures; Income SD : Seguro de enfermedad LO : INIST-24228.354000503790160050 78/793 NO : FRANCIS 13-0105291 INIST FT : Un outil pour l'étude des dépenses de santé et des « restes à charge » des ménages: le modèle Omar ET : (A Tool for the Study of Total Household Health Expenditures and Out-of-Pocket Expenditures: The OMAR model) AU : LARDELLIER (Rémi); LEGAL (Renaud); RAYNAUD (Denis); VIDAL (Guillaume) AF : Dépenses de santé et Relations avec l'Assurance Maladie (BDSRAM) de la Direction de la Recherche des Études, de l'Évaluation et des Statistiques (Drees) du Ministère de la Santé et des Sports./France (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Economie et statistique : (Ed. française); ISSN 0336-1454; France; Da. 2011; No. 450; 47-77, 107-114 [39 p.]; Abs. anglais/espagnol/allemand; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Français FA : Les « restes à charge » des ménages correspondent à la part de leurs dépenses de santé qui n'est couverte ni par l'assurance obligatoire de base ni par la couverture complémentaire. Leur connaissance est indispensable au pilotage du système d'assurance maladie. Au niveau macroéconomique, ils sont suivis grâce aux comptes de la santé. Mais on s'attend à ce que leur poids soit très variable d'un individu à l'autre. Or il n'y a pas de source individuelle qui permette leur observation directe à niveau fin. Cet article présente une démarche qui vise à combler cette lacune, celle du modèle Omar (Outil de Microsimulation pour l'Analyse des Restes à charge). Ce modèle reconstitue le partage de la dépense individuelle entre les trois financeurs: la Sécurité sociale, l'organisme complémentaire et l'individu. Il le fait en s'appuyant sur deux sources. La première est la source Epas-SPS qui apparie l'enquête Santé et Protection Sociale de l'Irdes et des données administratives de la Caisse nationale d'assurance maladie. La seconde est une enquête de la Drees auprès des organismes de couverture complémentaire. Cette dernière permet d'identifier les principales caractéristiques des contrats qu'ils offrent à leurs affiliés. Les informations de ces deux sources sont combinées et complétées par diverses techniques d'imputation. Ce modèle a commencé à être utilisé pour des travaux d'études appliqués, tels que l'analyse de la redistribution opérée par le système de soins selon l'âge et selon le niveau de vie. L'objectif du présent article est plutôt méthodologique: il consiste à détailler les principales composantes du modèle, et notamment les procédures d'imputation retenues pour compléter les données qui ne sont pas directement observables dans les deux sources. Des tests de robustesse permettent d'apprécier la qualité des résultats obtenus. CC : 52164; 52146A; 521 FD : Dépense; Assurance maladie; Couverture sociale; Ménage; Régime complémentaire ED : Expenditures; Health insurance; Social security cover; Household; Complementary Health Care System SD : Seguro de enfermedad LO : INIST-24228.354000505467960030 79/793 NO : FRANCIS 13-0098123 INIST ET : Analysis of crime patterns through the integration of an agent-based model and a population microsimulation : Advances in Geocomputation AU : MALLESON (Nick); BIRKIN (Mark) AF : School of Geography, University of Leeds/Leeds LS2 9JT/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Computers, environment and urban systems; ISSN 0198-9715; Coden CEUSD5; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2012; Vol. 36; No. 6; Pp. 551-561; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : In recent years, criminologists have become interested in understanding crime variations at progressively finer spatial scales, right down to individual streets or even houses. To model at these fine spatial scales, and to better account for the dynamics of the crime system, agent-based models of crime are emerging. Generally, these have been more successful in representing the behaviour of criminals than their victims. In this paper it is suggested that individual representations of criminal behaviour can be enhanced by combining them with models of the criminal environment which are specified at a similar scale. In the case of burglary this means the identification of individual households as targets. We will show how this can be achieved using the complementary technique of microsimulation. The work is significant because it allows agent-based models of crime to be refined geographically (to allow, for example, individual households with varying wealth or occupancy measures) and leads to the identification of the characteristics of individual victims. CC : 770D03D FD : Zone urbaine; Criminologie; Modélisation; Analyse spatiale; Crime; Vol criminel; Orienté agent; Modèle simulation; Modèle microscopique; Reconstruction; Population; Cartographie; Royaume-Uni FG : Europe ED : Urban area; Criminology; Modeling; Spatial analysis; Crime; Criminal theft; Agent oriented; Simulation model; Microscopic model; Reconstruction; Population; Cartography; United Kingdom EG : Europe SD : Zona urbana; Criminología; Modelización; Análisis espacial; Crimen; Robo; Orientado agente; Modelo simulación; Modelo microscópico; Reconstrucción; Población; Cartografía; Reino Unido LO : INIST-20192.354000505470670060 80/793 NO : FRANCIS 13-0098950 INIST ET : Microsimulation Modeling of Student Success in Community Colleges Using MicroCC AU : SPIELAUER (Martin); ANDERSON (Ronald E.) AF : Microsimulation Consultant/Ottawa, ON/Canada (1 aut.); University of Minnesota/Wayzata, MN/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Compte-rendu; Niveau analytique SO : Social science computer review; ISSN 0894-4393; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; Vol. 30; No. 4; Pp. 499-512; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : While microsimulation modeling has not been utilized extensively in either social science or educational research, it offers to greatly improve understanding, especially of careers and institutional changes over time. The MicroCC microsimulation model was developed and tested on over 250,000 community college students who enrolled in Connecticut and Rhode Island. MicroCC simulated term-by-term progress and completion of new students for 4.5 years. Using data-based effect coefficients, the model simulated decisions for four process factors: re-enrollment, full-time attendance, the number of courses taken, and course completions. The model allowed decomposition of racial, gender, and other differences in success rates by process factors. The findings have major relevance for improving student success rates, especially by suggesting ways to make student advising more effective. Besides serving as an analytical tool, MicroCC allows projection of completion rates under &dquot;what-if&dquot; scenarios. Illustrative input data for MicroCC and a user and access guide are given in appendices. CC : 52134; 52161; 521 FD : Etudiant; Simulation; Modélisation; Espace virtuel; Succès ED : Student; Simulation; Modeling; Virtual space LO : INIST-26903.354000506824190070 81/793 NO : FRANCIS 13-0078955 INIST ET : Data Matching to Allocate Doctors to Patients in a Microsimulation Model of the Primary Care Process in New Zealand AU : RANDOW (Martin Von); DAVIS (Peter); LAY-YEE (Roy); PEARSON (Janet) AF : COMPASS Research Centre, The University of Auckland/Auckland/Nouvelle-Zélande (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Social science computer review; ISSN 0894-4393; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; Vol. 30; No. 3; Pp. 358-368; Bibl. 1 p.1/2 LA : Anglais EA : The authors aimed to use existing data to create a microsimulation model of the primary care process in New Zealand, including realistically simulating the allocation of general practitioners (GPs) to a population sample. This is important because GP behavior is likely to be a major determinant of future cost and service outcomes. Two nationally representative data sets were matched: a sample of GPs and their patients from the National Primary Medical Care Survey (NPMCS) and a population sample from the New Zealand Health Survey (NZHS). Matching involved first dividing the data sets into cells based on common variables. Further variables were then included in a distance function to guide matching within cells. A transportation optimization algorithm allocated GPs based on these-on similarities in patients' attributes. Statistical matching performed well with high correlations for patient attributes and reduced average absolute rank differences on proportions of patients among GPs compared to random matching. Low Kullback- Leibler (K-L) divergences confirmed that our method of statistical matching had allocated GPs realistically. Models of primary care too frequently omit the role of the practitioner in driving health service outcomes. The authors developed a method to impute characteristics of GPs to a population-based microsimulation model of primary care. CC : 52163; 5218; 52158A; 521 FD : Nouvelle-Zélande; Médecine générale; Santé; Microsimulation ED : New Zealand; General Practice Medicine; Health LO : INIST-26903.354000500862800070 82/793 NO : FRANCIS 13-0055253 INIST ET : Approximations to the Truth: Comparing Survey and Microsimulation Approaches to Measuring Income for Social Indicators AU : FIGARI (Francesco); IACOVOU (Maria); SKEW (Alexandra J.); SUTHERLAND (Holly) AF : Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park/Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.); Department of Economics, University of Insubria/Varese/Italie (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Social indicators research; ISSN 0303-8300; Pays-Bas; Da. 2012; Vol. 105; No. 3; Pp. 387-407; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : In this paper, we evaluate income distributions in four European countries (Austria, Italy, Spain and Hungary) using two complementary approaches: a standard approach based on reported incomes in survey data, and a microsimulation approach, where taxes and benefits are simulated. These two approaches may be expected to generate slightly different results, particularly in respect of individuals on lower incomes, because benefit receipts tend to be under-reported in survey data, and over-estimated in microsimulation procedures. However, we find that the two approaches do in fact produce reasonably consistent results, in terms of both inequality measures and poverty rates. To the extent that the results differ, we explore the reasons why these differences arise, and suggest directions for future research, in which each approach may inform improvements in the other. CC : 5218; 521 FD : Méthodologie; Comparaison internationale; Europe; Répartition des revenus; Pauvreté; Inégalité sociale ED : Methodology; Crossnational Comparisons; Europe; Income distribution; Poverty; Social Inequality LO : INIST-22286.354000508443160060 83/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0442780 INIST ET : Advances in population synthesis: fitting many attributes per agent and fitting to household and person margins simultaneously AU : PRITCHARD (David R.); MILLER (Eric J.) AF : Metrolinx, 20 Bay St. Suite 901/Toronto, ON M5S 1A4/Canada (1 aut.); Cities Centre, University of Toronto, 455 Spadina Ave., Suite 400/Toronto. ON M5S 2G8/Canada (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation; ISSN 0049-4488; Coden TNPRDN; Allemagne; Da. 2012; Vol. 39; No. 3; Pp. 685-704; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Agent-based microsimulation models of transportation, land use or other socioeconomic processes require an initial synthetic population derived from census data, conventionally created using the iterative proportional fitting (IPF) procedure. This paper introduces a novel computational method that allows the synthesis of many more attributes and finer attribute categories than previous approaches, both of which are long-standing limitations discussed in the literature. Additionally, a new approach is used to fit household and person zonal attribute distributions simultaneously. This technique was first adopted to address limitations specific to Canadian census data, but could also be useful in U.S. and other applications. The results of each new method are evaluated empirically in terms of goodness-of-fit. CC : 001D15B; 001D14A06; 001D14C03; 295 FD : Transports; Occupation sol; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Modèle prévision; Voyage; Orienté agent; Population; Processus itératif; Ajustement; Optimisation ED : Transportation; Land use; Modeling; Simulation model; Forecast model; Travel; Agent oriented; Population; Iterative process; Fitting; Optimization SD : Transportes; Ocupación terreno; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Modelo previsión; Viaje; Orientado agente; Población; Proceso iterativo; Ajuste; Optimización LO : INIST-15985.354000194661690090 84/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0438679 INIST ET : Rescreening of Persons With a Negative Colonoscopy Result: Results From a Microsimulation Model AU : KNUDSEN (Amy B.); HUR (Chin); GAZELLE (G. Scott); SCHRAG (Deborah); MCFARLAND (Elizabeth G.); KUNTZ (Karen M.) AF : Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard School of Public Health, and Dana-Farber Cancer Institute/Boston, Massachusetts/Etats-Unis; SSM St. Joseph Hospital/St. Charles, Missouri/Etats-Unis; School of Public Health, University of Minnesota/Minneapolis, Minnesota/Etats-Unis DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Annals of internal medicine; ISSN 0003-4819; Coden AIMEAS; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; Vol. 157; No. 9; Pp. 611-620; Bibl. 63 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: Persons with a negative result on screening colonoscopy are recommended to repeat the procedure in 10 years. Objective: To assess the effectiveness and costs of colonoscopy versus other rescreening strategies after an initial negative colonoscopy result. Design: Microsimulation model. Data Sources: Literature and data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. Target Population: Persons aged 50 years who had no adenomas or cancer detected on screening colonoscopy. Time Horizon: Lifetime. Perspective: Societal. Intervention: No further screening or rescreening starting at age 60 years with colonoscopy every 10 years, annual highly sensitive guaiac fecal occult blood testing (HSFOBT), annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), or computed tomographic colonography (CTC) every 5 years. Outcome Measures: Lifetime cases of colorectal cancer, life expectancy, and lifetime costs per 1000 persons, assuming either perfect or imperfect adherence. Results of Base-Case Analysis: Rescreening with any method substantially reduced the risk for colorectal cancer compared with no further screening (range, 7.7 to 12.6 lifetime cases per 1000 persons [perfect adherence] and 17.7 to 20.9 lifetime cases per 1000 persons [imperfect adherence] vs. 31.3 lifetime cases per 1000 persons with no further screening). In both adherence scenarios, the differences in life-years across rescreening strategies were small (range, 30893 to 30902 life-years per 1000 persons [perfect adherence] vs. 30865 to 30869 life-years per 1000 persons [imperfect adherence]). Rescreening with HSFOBT, FIT, or CTC had fewer complications and was less costly than continuing colonoscopy. Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Results were sensitive to test-specific adherence rates. Limitation: Data on adherence to rescreening were limited. Conclusion: Compared with the currently recommended strategy of continuing colonoscopy every 10 years after an initial negative examination, rescreening at age 60 years with annual HSFOBT, annual FIT, or CTC every 5 years provides approximately the same benefit in life-years with fewer complications at a lower cost. Therefore, it is reasonable to use other methods to rescreen persons with negative colonoscopy results. Primary Funding Source: National Cancer Institute. CC : 002B01; 002B24E06 FD : Endoscopie; Résultat négatif; Colonoscopie; Modèle; Médecine ED : Endoscopy; Negative result; Colonoscopy; Models; Medicine SD : Endoscopía; Resultado negativo; Colonoscopía; Modelo; Medicina LO : INIST-2014.354000502908580020 85/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0409969 INIST ET : Calibration of bus parameters in microsimulation traffic modelling AU : JING ZHANG; HOUNSELL (Nick); SHRESTHA (Birendra); ISON (Stephen G.); POTTER (Stephen) AF : School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton/Southampton/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); Transport Studies Group, School of Civil and Building Engineering, Loughborough University/Loughborough, Leicestershire, LE11 3TU/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.); Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, Faculty of Maths, Computing and Technolgoy, The Open Unversity, Walton Hall/Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA/Royaume-Uni (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation planning and technology : (Print); ISSN 0308-1060; Coden TPLTAK; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2012; Vol. 35; No. 1; Pp. 107-120; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : Microscopic traffic simulation models have advanced significantly in recent years and are now used extensively around the world for detailed traffic modelling where dynamic operations have to be represented. Whilst extremely powerful, these models can have substantial calibration requirements. This paper illustrates a new method of calibration of bus performance parameters as part of the 'Gipps' car-following model used within the microscopic simulation package Aimsun. This research looks at the impact of bus signal priority strategies on bus and traffic emissions. Calibration was undertaken using second-by-second bus performance data recorded automatically within the new iBus system in London. Results illustrate significant differences between some measured and default parameters, which in turn lead to some inaccuracies in emissions predictions for buses. Calibration is therefore essential and can benefit from the ever-increasing sources of automatic data emerging from new Intelligent Transport Systems applications. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Autobus; Vitesse déplacement; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Etalonnage; Modèle microscopique; Paramètre; Emission gaz; Comportement; Conduite véhicule; Analyse donnée; Accélération; Etude comparative; Suivi de véhicule ED : Road traffic; Bus; Speed; Modeling; Simulation model; Calibration; Microscopic model; Parameter; Gas emission; Behavior; Vehicle driving; Data analysis; Acceleration; Comparative study; Car following SD : Tráfico carretera; Autobus; Velocidad desplazamiento; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Contraste; Modelo microscópico; Parámetro; Emisión gas; Conducta; Conducción vehículo; Análisis datos; Aceleración; Estudio comparativo LO : INIST-15632.354000509712670070 86/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0390149 INIST ET : How should individuals with a false-positive fecal occult blood test for colorectal cancer be managed? A decision analysis AU : HAUG (Ulrike); KNUDSEN (Amy B.); KUNTZ (Karen M.) AF : Division of Preventive Oncology, National Center for Tumor Diseases/German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ)/Heidelberg/Allemagne (1 aut.); Department of Radiology, Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital/Boston, MA/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Division of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota/Minneapolis, MN/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : International journal of cancer; ISSN 0020-7136; Coden IJCNAW; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; Vol. 131; No. 9; Pp. 2094-2102; Bibl. 43 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Several industrialized nations recommend fecal occult blood testing (FOBT) to screen for colorectal cancer (CRC), but corresponding screening guidelines do not specify how individuals with a prior false-positive FOBT result (fpFOBT) should be managed in terms of subsequent CRC screening. Accordingly, we conducted a decision analysis to compare different strategies for managing such individuals. We used a previously developed CRC microsimulation model, SimCRC, to calculate life-years and the lifetime number of colonoscopies (as a measure of required resources) for a cohort of 50-year-olds to whom FOBT-based CRC screening is offered annually from 50 to 75 years. We compared three management strategies for individuals with a prior fpFOBT: (i) resume screening in 10 years with 10-yearly colonoscopy (SwitchCol_long); (ii) resume screening in 1 year with annual FOBT (ContinueFOBT_Short) and (iii) resume screening in 10 years (i.e., the recommended interval following a negative colonscopy) with annual FOBT (ContinueFOBT_long). We performed sensitivity analyses on various parameters and assumptions. When using different management strategies for individuals with a prior fpFOBT, the variation in the number of life-years gained relative to no screening was <2%, whereas the variation in the lifetime number of colonoscopies was 23% (percentages are calculated as the maximum difference across strategies divided by the lowest number across strategies). The ContinueFOBT_long strategy showed the lowest lifetime number of colonoscopies per life-year gained even when key assumptions were varied. In conclusion, the ContinueFOBT_long strategy was advantageous regarding both clinical benefit and required resources. Specifying an appropriate management strategy for individuals with a prior fpFOBT may substantially reduce required resources within a FOBT-based CRC screening program without limiting its effectiveness. CC : 002B04; 002B13B01 FD : Micrométastase; Homme; Faux positif; Cancer colorectal; Fèces; Sang; Analyse décision; Dépistage; Cancérologie; Cancer occulte FG : Pathologie de l'appareil digestif; Pathologie du côlon; Pathologie de l'intestin; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Pathologie du rectum ED : Micrometastasis; Human; False positive; Colorectal cancer; Feces; Blood; Decision analysis; Medical screening; Cancerology; Occult cancer EG : Digestive diseases; Colonic disease; Intestinal disease; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Rectal disease SD : Micrometástasis; Hombre; Falso positivo; Cancer de colon y recto; Heces; Sangre; Análisis decisión; Descubrimiento; Cancerología; Cáncer oculto LO : INIST-13027.354000508171060140 87/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0389120 INIST ET : Predictive Priority for Light Rail Transit: University Light Rail Line in Salt Lake County, Utah AU : ZLATKOVIC (Milan); MARTIN (Peter T.); STEVANOVIC (Aleksandar) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, 110 Central Campus Drive/Salt Lake City, UT 84112/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geomatics Engineering, Florida Atlantic University, Building 36, Room 225, 777 Glades Road/Boca Raton, FL 33431/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2259; Pp. 168-178; Bibl. 12 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The goal of this paper is to assess the operational implementation of strategies for predictive light rail priority through microsimulation. A 2-mi corridor in Salt Lake County, Utah, where the University Line of light rail line operates, was studied. The study used VISSIM microsimulation models to analyze light rail operations and the effects that light rail priority has on transit and vehicular traffic. Results showed that although the existing priority strategies had no effects on vehicular traffic along the corridor, they reduced train travel times by 20% to 30%. Left turns along the main corridor were slightly affected by the priority. Although the priority strategies could have minor to major effects on vehicular traffic along side streets through increased delays, they reduced train delays by 2.5 min along the corridor. Enabling priority at the 700 E intersection (where the priority was currently not active) would help reduce delays for trains by an additional 10%, with a small increase in vehicle delays. However, the coordinated north-south through movements would experience minimum impacts. Three recommendations emerged from the study: enable priority at 700 E to improve transit without major effects on vehicular traffic; reset priority parameters at intersections adjacent to light rail stations so that the priority call encompasses station dwell times; and consider removing the queue jump strategies, so as to reduce delays for the corridor through movements and help preserve coordination patterns. CC : 001D15D FD : Métro léger; Utah; Modèle prévision; Priorité; Evaluation projet; Collecte donnée; Modélisation; Vitesse déplacement; Durée trajet; Etalonnage; Validation; Résultat; Retard; Intersection; Modèle simulation; Niveau de service FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Light rail transit; Utah; Forecast model; Priority; Project evaluation; Data gathering; Modeling; Speed; Travel time; Calibration; Validation; Result; Delay; Intersection; Simulation model; Level of service EG : United States; North America; America SD : Metro ligero; Utah; Modelo previsión; Prioridad; Evaluación proyecto; Recolección dato; Modelización; Velocidad desplazamiento; Duración trayecto; Contraste; Validación; Resultado; Retraso; Intersección; Modelo simulación; Nivel de servicio LO : INIST-10459B.354000509824210160 88/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0389109 INIST ET : Turn Pocket Blockage and Spillback Models: Applications for Signal Timing and Capacity Analysis AU : REYNOLDS (William L.); ROUPHAIL (Nagui M.); XUESONG ZHOU AF : Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State University, Centennial Campus, Box 8601/Raleigh, NC 27695-8601/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc., 2550 University Avenue West, Suite 238N/Saint Paul, MN 55114/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, 122 South Central Campus Drive, 210 CME/Salt Lake City, UT 84112-0561/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2259; Pp. 112-122; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The development of a macroscopic simulation tool is presented and tested to quantify the effects of short turn pockets on the sustainable service rate of a signalized intersection. Unlike the theoretical signal capacity, the sustainable service rate includes queue interaction effects and is thus influenced by blockage and spillback at the entrance to a short turn pocket. Previous research on the topic has focused either on the probability of spillback from a short turn pocket or the operation of a system with a single approach lane. No macroscopic model currently available has the ability to analyze throughput reductions due to the effects of short turn pockets on a multilane approach. The model described here uses a series of flow and density restrictions on cells of varying sizes on the approach to the intersection. Results, which indicate sensitivity of the model to turn pocket spillback, blockage, saturation flow rate, pocket length, lane utilization, cycle length, phase sequence, phase overlap, permitted phasing, and time-dependent demand, compare favorably with microsimulation. A phase optimization procedure is described to help efficiently allocate green time for a given set of turn pocket lengths and turn movement percentages. Implications of using the model for signal timing applications are discussed, and recommendations are made on additional model enhancements and testing needs. CC : 001D14O05; 001D14C03; 001D15C; 295 FD : Feu signalisation; Intersection; Timing; Blocage; Application; Traitement signal; Modélisation; Ecoulement trafic; Trafic routier; Sensibilité; Optimisation; Voie circulation ED : Traffic lights; Intersection; Timing; Blocking; Application; Signal processing; Modeling; Traffic flow; Road traffic; Sensitivity; Optimization; Traffic lane SD : Semáforo; Intersección; Timing; Bloqueo; Aplicación; Procesamiento señal; Modelización; Flujo tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Sensibilidad; Optimización; Vía tráfico LO : INIST-10459B.354000509824210100 89/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0389104 INIST ET : Intelligent Traffic Signal System for Isolated Intersections: Dynamic Pedestrian Accommodation AU : LU (George X.); YI ZHANG; NOYCE (David A.) AF : Transportation Research Center, University of Vermont, Farrell Hall 118, 210 Colchester Avenue/Burlington, VT 05405/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Transportation Engineering Division/1241 Engineering Hall/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Traffic Operations and Safety Laboratory/1204 Engineering Hall/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1415 Engineering Drive/Madison, Wl 53706-1691/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2259; Pp. 96-111; Bibl. 45 ref. LA : Anglais EA : One critical issue of traffic control is the optimization of signalized intersections for improved multimodal safety and operations. Accommodating pedestrian traffic at intersections is challenging because the demands of multimodal service compete fiercely on limited green time resources. The Highway Capacity Manual prescribes that the parallel vehicle green must exceed &dquot;Walk&dquot; plus pedestrian clearance interval (PCI) timed by a design walking speed. This static PCI timing is unsafe because seniors and children are likely to be slower than the design pedestrian. Furthermore, a vehicle-flow issue arises when the prolonged PCI exceeds the operationally efficient parallel green: additional vehicle right-of-way, unnecessary for operational efficiency, preempts green time from conflicting phase(s) and increases intersectionwide queuing delays. Queuing delays necessitate a trade-off between competing multifaceted traveler needs. Fuzzy logic control (FLC) proves effective, flexible, and robust in handling competing objectives. With the dynamic PCI concept, this research developed an intelligent traffic signal system that performed friendly pedestrian accommodation and also incorporated FLC into fulfilling multifaceted vehicle needs. The potential benefits from the new system optimized with a genetic algorithm were quantified through a comparison with a standard dual-ring, eight-phase, vehicle-actuated controller, conventionally cited as NEMA (National Electrical Manufacturers Association) control. Microsimulation experiments revealed that the current countermeasure, which lowered PCI timing design speed to strengthen crossing safety, was operationally deficient. The existing timing standard cannot offer adequate safety for all pedestrians, and the NEMA system omits multifaceted vehicle needs in control logic. In contrast, the FLC system fully protects all pedestrians through dynamic PCI and smartly serves manifold vehicle needs well. The FLC system outperforms the NEMA control by embodying a reasonable trade-off between competing objectives in the management of an isolated intersection. CC : 001D14O05; 001D14C03; 001D15C; 295 FD : Feu signalisation; Intersection; Système intelligent; Modélisation; Modèle dynamique; Régulation trafic; Trafic routier; Description système; Configuration; Optimisation; Algorithme génétique; Evaluation système; Etude comparative; Ecoulement trafic ED : Traffic lights; Intersection; Intelligent system; Modeling; Dynamic model; Traffic control; Road traffic; System description; Configuration; Optimization; Genetic algorithm; System evaluation; Comparative study; Traffic flow SD : Semáforo; Intersección; Sistema inteligente; Modelización; Modelo dinámico; Regulación tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Descripción sistema; Configuración; Optimización; Algoritmo genético; Evaluación sistema; Estudio comparativo; Flujo tráfico LO : INIST-10459B.354000509824210090 90/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0388815 INIST ET : Change in Land Use Through Microsimulation of Market Dynamics: Agent-Based Model of Land Development and Locator Bidding in Austin, Texas AU : BIN ZHOU; KOCKELMAN (Kara M.) AF : Department of Engineering, Central Connecticut State University, Copernicus Hall, Room 21208/New Britain, CT 06050/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 6.9 Ernest Cockrell Jr. Hall/Austin, TX 78712-1076/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2255; Pp. 125-136; Bibl. 33 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Various land use models are now available, but a market-based model with sufficient spatial resolution and defensible behavioral foundations remains elusive. The model system developed in the study described here emphasized the interactions of individual market agents (on both the demand and the supply sides) and enjoyed behavioral foundations for each of the key actors at the level of parcels. Auction (or competition between market agents) was used to simulate price adjustment, and market-clearing prices were endogenously determined by iterative adjustment of the bidding prices for residential and commercial properties. A series of models for households, firms, and land developers and owners was estimated with actual data from Austin, Texas. The estimation results revealed tangible behavioral foundations for the evolution of urban land uses. The model forecasts demonstrated the strengths and limitations of this market simulation approach. Although equilibrium prices in forecast years were generally lower than those that were observed or expected, the spatial distributions of property values, new development, and individual agents were reasonable. CC : 001D15B; 001D14A06; 295 FD : Transports; Modélisation; Modèle prévision; Etude marché; Occupation sol; Modèle dynamique; Modèle simulation; Enchère; Texas; Orienté agent; Architecture système; Prix FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Modeling; Forecast model; Market survey; Land use; Dynamic model; Simulation model; Bidding; Texas; Agent oriented; System architecture; Price EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transportes; Modelización; Modelo previsión; Estudio mercado; Ocupación terreno; Modelo dinámico; Modelo simulación; Subasta; Texas; Orientado agente; Arquitectura sistema; Precio LO : INIST-10459B.354000508682730140 91/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0388808 INIST ET : Modeling of Job Mobility and Location Choice Decisions AU : AHSANUL HABIB (Muhammad); MILLER (Eric J.); MANS (Bruce T.) AF : School of Planning, Dalhousie University, 5410 Spring Garden Road/Halifax, Nova Scotia B3J 2X4/Canada (1 aut., 3 aut.); Cities Centre, University of Toronto, 455 Spadina Avenue, Suite 400/Toronto, Ontario M5S 2G8/Canada (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2255; Pp. 69-78; Bibl. 40 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper presents a comprehensive framework for modeling continuous decisions about changing jobs that individuals make over the course of their lives. The key objective of the research was to develop disaggregate econometric models for decision making about job mobility and location choice to implement longitudinal job mobility behavior of people within a dynamic microsimulation-based integrated urban modeling system. The paper includes two behavioral model components: (a) a job mobility model and (b) a job location choice model. The models were implemented empirically with a retrospective survey of the greater Toronto and Hamilton area in Ontario, Canada. The first component investigated the timing of job mobility with the use of a competing risk duration modeling approach for four event types: a job switch, a return to school, short-term unemployment, and withdrawal from the labor force. The second component, job location choice, was empirically estimated by applying the discrete choice methodology. One of the key features of the model was that it examined the influence of current employment in making decisions about the next job location and specified a gain-loss utility structure by the prospect-theoretic, reference-dependent choice modeling approach. A mixed logit model was developed to account for unobserved heterogeneity in the location preferences. These models were expected to be implemented in the Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment (ILUTE) modeling system, which had recently been updated with comparable disaggregate behavioral residential location models. CC : 001D15A FD : Transports; Modélisation; Mobilité; Choix; Prise de décision; Changement; Lieu travail; Application; Méthode empirique; Statistique; Risque; Localisation ED : Transportation; Modeling; Mobility; Choice; Decision making; Change; Work place; Application; Empirical method; Statistics; Risk; Localization SD : Transportes; Modelización; Movilidad; Elección; Toma decision; Cambio; Lugar trabajo; Aplicación; Método empírico; Estadística; Riesgo; Localización LO : INIST-10459B.354000508682730080 92/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0388801 INIST ET : Cross-Entropy Optimization Model for Population Synthesis in Activity-Based Microsimulation Models AU : LEE (Der-Horng); YINGFEI FU AF : Block E1A, No. 07-16, National University of Singapore, 1 Engineering Drive 2/Singapore 117576/Singapour (1 aut.); Block E1, No. 08-20, Department of Civil Engineering, National University of Singapore, 1 Engineering Drive 2/Singapore 117576/Singapour (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2255; Pp. 20-27; Bibl. 17 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Microsimulation techniques for disaggregate activity-based travel demand models are expected to synthesize a desired number of fully specified individual activity patterns. A data prerequisite for this technique is the so-called synthetic population, a key input for activity-generating procedures. The iterative proportional fitting method has been widely used to estimate the multiway demographic tables for different geographic areas. This study proposed a cross-entropy optimization model in which generalized constraints for different demographic characteristics of the synthetic population could be included. A quasi-Newton algorithm was devised to solve the proposed problem. Encouraging results obtained from the model application suggested that the proposed method held much promise for generating a more realistic synthetic population with different types of demographic characteristics and could be generally applied in different geographic areas. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Modélisation; Modèle prévision; Modèle simulation; Optimisation; Entropie; Activité; Etude théorique; Planification; Formulation; Application ED : Transportation; Modeling; Forecast model; Simulation model; Optimization; Entropy; Activity; Theoretical study; Planning; Formulation; Application SD : Transportes; Modelización; Modelo previsión; Modelo simulación; Optimización; Entropía; Actividad; Estudio teórico; Planificación; Formulación; Aplicación LO : INIST-10459B.354000508682730030 93/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0388792 INIST ET : Historical Validation of Integrated Transport-Land Use Model System AU : MILLER (Eric J.); FAROOQ (Bilal); CHINGCUANCO (Franco); WANG (David) AF : Department of Civil Engineering and Cities Centre, University of Toronto, 455 Spadina Avenue/Toronto, Ontario M5S 2G8/Canada (1 aut.); Division of Engineering Science, Department of Civil Engineering, 35 Saint George Street, University of Toronto/Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4/Canada (2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2255; Pp. 91-99; Bibl. 32 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment (ILUTE) model system is an agent-based microsimulation model for the greater Toronto-Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, area. The model system uses disaggregate models of spatial socioeconomic processes to evolve the state of the greater Toronto-Hamilton area from a known base case to a predicted end state in 1-year time steps. ILUTE has reached a state of operational implementation in which historical validation runs are being undertaken. The model runs start with 100% of the population of people, families, households, and dwelling units in the greater Toronto area that was synthesized for the year 1986. Twenty-year historical simulations (1986 to 2006) have been run, with model outputs being compared with Canadian census data and Transportation Tomorrow Survey data for 1991, 1996,2001, and 2006. This paper presents recent findings from these historical validation tests and emphasizes the system's modeling of the demographic evolution of the population and the region's housing market. CC : 001D15B; 001D14A06; 295 FD : Transports; Modélisation; Modèle prévision; Occupation sol; Système intégré; Validation; Modèle simulation; Démographie; Résultat expérimental; Observation; Orienté agent; Etude marché; Prix ED : Transportation; Modeling; Forecast model; Land use; Integrated system; Validation; Simulation model; Demography; Experimental result; Observation; Agent oriented; Market survey; Price SD : Transportes; Modelización; Modelo previsión; Ocupación terreno; Sistema integrado; Validación; Modelo simulación; Demografía; Resultado experimental; Observación; Orientado agente; Estudio mercado; Precio LO : INIST-10459B.354000508682730100 94/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0388790 INIST ET : Joint Model of Vehicle Type Choice and Tour Length AU : KONDURI (Karthik C.); XIN YE; SANA (Bhargava); PENDYALA (Ram M.) AF : School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Room ECG252/Tempe, AZ 85287-5306/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 4 aut.); National Center for Smart Growth Research and Education, University of Maryland, Preinkert Field House (Building 054) 1112D/College Park, MD 20742/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Resource Systems Group, Inc., 55 Railroad Row/White River Junction, VT 05001/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2255; Pp. 28-37; Bibl. 30 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Tour-based microsimulation model systems are increasingly being applied to the forecasting of travel demand. This paper examines the relationship between two dimensions of tours: the type of vehicle (in a household that owns multiple vehicles of different types) chosen to undertake the tour and the overall length (distance traveled) of the tour. These two dimensions are of much interest in the current planning context, in which concerns about energy sustainability and greenhouse gas emissions are motivating planners to seek ways to mitigate the adverse impacts of automotive travel. Moreover, virtually all tour-based models currently used do not explicitly account for choice of vehicle type in the modeling of tour attributes, despite the critical importance of the choice of vehicle type for energy and emissions analysis. This paper presents a joint discretecontinuous model of choice of vehicle type and length of tours. Estimation results suggested that significant common unobserved factors affected vehicle type choice and length of tours. These factors justified the use of modeling approaches with joint simultaneous equations to model tour attributes. The model specification in which vehicle type choice affected tour length performed better than the specification in which tour length affected vehicle type choice. This outcome suggested that choice of vehicle type (and allocation to household members) was a longer-term choice that influenced shorter-term tour-length choices. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Modélisation; Modèle prévision; Modèle simulation; Type véhicule; Choix; Méthodologie; Formulation; Analyse donnée; Statistique descriptive; Demande transport; Voyage ED : Transportation; Modeling; Forecast model; Simulation model; Vehicle type; Choice; Methodology; Formulation; Data analysis; Descriptive statistics; Transport demand; Travel SD : Transportes; Modelización; Modelo previsión; Modelo simulación; Tipo vehículo; Elección; Metodología; Formulación; Análisis datos; Estadística descriptiva; Demanda transporte; Viaje LO : INIST-10459B.354000508682730040 95/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0387555 INIST ET : Design of Comprehensive Microsimulator of Household Vehicle Fleet Composition, Utilization, and Evolution AU : PALETI (Rajesh); ELURU (Naveen); BHAT (Chandra R.); PENDYALA (Ram M.); ADLER (Thomas J.); GOULIAS (Konstadinos G.) AF : Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1761/Austin TX 78712-0278/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics, McGill University, 817 Sherbrooke Street West/Montreal, Quebec H3A 2K6/Canada (3 aut.); School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Room ECG252/Tempe, AZ 85287-5306/Etats-Unis (4 aut.); Resource Systems Group, Inc., 55 Railroad Row/White River Junction, VT 05001/Etats-Unis (5 aut.); Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara/Santa Barbara, CA 93106-4060/Etats-Unis (6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2254; Pp. 44-57; Bibl. 20 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper describes a comprehensive vehicle fleet composition, utilization, and evolution simulator that can be used to forecast household vehicle ownership and mileage by type of vehicle over time. The components of the simulator are developed in this research effort by using detailed revealed and stated preference data on household vehicle fleet composition, utilization, and planned transactions collected for a large sample of households in California. Results of the model development effort show that the simulator holds promise as a tool for simulating vehicular choice processes in the context of activity-based travel microsimulation model systems. CC : 001D15B; 001D15C FD : Transports; Modèle prévision; Modèle simulation; Conception; Simulateur; Flotte; Ménage; Evolution; Utilisation; Choix; Voyage; Critère sélection; Type véhicule; Véhicule routier ED : Transportation; Forecast model; Simulation model; Design; Simulator; Fleet; Household; Evolution; Use; Choice; Travel; Selection criterion; Vehicle type; Road vehicle SD : Transportes; Modelo previsión; Modelo simulación; Diseño; Simulador; Familia; Evolución; Uso; Elección; Viaje; Criterio selección; Tipo vehículo; Vehículo caminero LO : INIST-10459B.354000509824540060 96/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0387552 INIST ET : Dynamic Activity Generation Model Using Competing Hazard Formulation AU : AULD (Joshua); HOSSEIN RASHIDI (Taha); JAVANMARDI (Mahmoud); MOHAMMADIAN (Abolfazl (kouros)) AF : Department of Civil and Materials Engineering, University of Illinois at Chicago, 842 West Taylor Street/Chicago, IL 60607/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2254; Pp. 28-35; Bibl. 40 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Rule-based activity scheduling microsimulation models often generate activities for individuals to engage in randomly, on the basis of observed activity rates from survey data. These microsimulation models try to represent more closely the process of activity pattern development. However, the dynamics underlying the activity generation process are often not considered, especially in regard to competition between activities for the limited time resource. This work, then, develops a methodology for generating activities on the basis of the time since the last activity of the same type was generated, by using a hazard-based formulation. In addition, the model explicitly accounts for the competition between activities through the use of a competing hazard framework. The results show that observed activity rates and temporal distributions from survey data can be replicated through simulation of the model in an activity-based scheduling model, the agent-based dynamic activity planning and travel scheduling (ADAPTS) activity scheduler. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Modèle prévision; Modèle simulation; Modèle dynamique; Formulation; Ordonnancement; Analyse risque; Modélisation; Activité ED : Transportation; Forecast model; Simulation model; Dynamic model; Formulation; Scheduling; Risk analysis; Modeling; Activity SD : Transportes; Modelo previsión; Modelo simulación; Modelo dinámico; Formulación; Reglamento; Análisis riesgo; Modelización; Actividad LO : INIST-10459B.354000509824540040 97/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0387542 INIST ET : Goodness-of-Fit Evaluation Method for Agent-Based Household Microdata Sets Composed of Generalized Attributes AU : OTANI (Noriko); SUGIKI (Nao); MIYAMOTO (Kazuaki) AF : Faculty of Environmental and Information Studies, Tokyo City University, 3-3-1 Ushikubo-Nishi/Tsuzuki-Ku, Yokohama 224-8551/Japon (1 aut., 3 aut.); Research and Planning Department, Docon Co., Ltd., 4-1, 5-Chome, 1-jo, Atsubetsu-Cho/Atsubetsu-Ku, Sapporo 004-8585/Japon (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2254; Pp. 97-103; Bibl. 16 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Microsimulation models of land use characterize attributes of a household and its location, referred to as microdata in this study. However, methods for evaluating the goodness of fit between estimated and observed sets of agent-based microdata have not been investigated extensively. Although the attributes of a household include various items, such as the relationship with the household head and ages of the members, housing type and spatial location, number of cars owned, and income, the attributes can be classified into general categories. The objective of the present study is to develop a goodness-of-fit evaluation method for agent-based household microdata sets composed of generalized attributes. First, a distance measure between the estimated and observed microdata for each household is defined. In this definition a generalized scheme is introduced, whereby attributes are structured by the household composition, attributes of the member, and attributes of the household as a whole. The goodness of fit is measured on the basis of the minimum sum of distances for all households in the study area. The calculation cannot be carried out with just a conventional algorithm for microdata of a typical size because the number of calculations increases in proportion to the factorial (N!) of the number (N) of agents. Therefore, a genetic algorithm, especially one using symbiotic evolution, is developed to solve the problem. The effectiveness of the method in regard to accuracy and calculation feasibility is confirmed by using person trip survey data for the Sapporo metropolitan area in Japan. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Modèle prévision; Analyse donnée; Ménage; Test ajustement; Méthode calcul; Optimisation; Algorithme; Evaluation performance ED : Transportation; Modeling; Simulation model; Forecast model; Data analysis; Household; Goodness of fit test; Computing method; Optimization; Algorithm; Performance evaluation SD : Transportes; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Modelo previsión; Análisis datos; Familia; Prueba ajuste; Método cálculo; Optimización; Algoritmo; Evaluación prestación LO : INIST-10459B.354000509824540100 98/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0368458 BDSP FT : (Qu'est-ce qui fait la différence dans la demande de soins de santé ? Le rôle de l'assurance maladie et des biais de sélection) ET : What Drives Differences in Health Care Demand ? The Role of Health Insurance and Selection Bias AU : SHANE (D.); TRIVEDI (P.) AF : University of York. Health Econometrics and Data Group. (H.E.D.G.). York./Royaume-Uni DT : Rapport; Niveau monographique SO : What Drives Differences in Health Care Demand ? The Role of Health Insurance and Selection Bias; Royaume-Uni; Londres: University of York; Da. 2012; RP/; Pp. 29 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper employs an econometric model to parse differences in health care utilization attributable to private health insurance and differences due to self-selection into insurance status, with specific interest in selection on unobservable traits such as insurance preference or attitude toward health risks. The model has two components, one component to model insurance outcome, the other to model demand for care measured as the annual number of doctor visits and prescriptions filled. Recognizing the endogeneity of health insurance, the model allows for correlated unobserved heterogeneity by assuming a latent factor structure. Values for these latent factors are drawn through simulation and the model is estimated using maximum simulated likelihood methods. For the observable characteristics that predict need for health services we find evidence of adverse selection. However, we also find evidence of advantageous selection on the unobservable characteristics common to insurance choice and utilization. In other words, unobserved heterogeneity that increases the chances of being uninsured is associated with higher utilization. Given this selection decomposition, there is no inherent conflict in describing the influence of both adverse and advantageous selection in utilization comparisons. After controlling for selection, the insurance incentive effect (ex-post moral hazard) is positive and significant. For the average individual, switching from no coverage to full coverage would result in 2 additional visits to the doctor per year (+160%) and 8 additional prescriptions filled (+207%) CC : 002B30A11 FD : Assurance; Secteur privé; Service santé; Utilisation; Economie santé; Consommation; Soin; Médicament; Demande; Santé; Modèle économétrique; Etats-Unis FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Insurance; Private sector; Health service; Use; Health economy; Consumption; Care; Drug; Demand; Health; Econometric model; United States EG : North America; America SD : Seguro; Sector privado; Servicio sanidad; Uso; Economía salud; Consumo; Cuidado; Medicamento; Petición; Salud; Modelo econométrico; Estados Unidos LO : BDSP/IRDES 99/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0368430 BDSP FT : Vieillissement de la population et croissance des dépenses de santé AU : DORMONT (B.); HUBER (H.) AF : Chaire Santé. Paris./France DT : Rapport; Niveau monographique SO : Vieillissement de la population et croissance des dépenses de santé; France; Paris: Institut Montparnasse; Da. 2012; RP/; Pp. 26 p. LA : Français FA : Depuis le milieu du XXe siècle les économies développées connaissent deux grandes tendances : un formidable accroissement de la longévité et une augmentation continuelle de la part du produit intérieur brut consacrée aux dépenses de santé. Quel est le lien entre ces deux évolutions ? Contrairement à une opinion répandue, le vieillissement ne joue qu'un rôle mineur dans la croissance des dépenses de santé. Certes, chaque individu voit ses dépenses de santé augmenter lorsqu'il vieillit. Mais les changements les plus importants sont dus au fait que les dépenses individuelles de santé augmentent dans le temps, à âge et à maladie donnés. En 2009, par exemple, un homme de 50 ans affecté d'un diabète dépense beaucoup plus pour sa santé que le même quinquagénaire diabétique ne dépensait en 2000. Ce mouvement est sans rapport avec le vieillissement de la population. Il résulte principalement de la dynamique du progrès médical : de nouveaux produits et de nouvelles procédures apparaissent continuellement, qui induisent des changements dans les pratiques médicales. Une analyse de microsimulation réalisée sur des échantillons représentatifs des assurés sociaux français a permis de montrer que ces changements de pratiques influencent massivement la croissance des dépenses de santé, le vieillissement de la population ne jouant qu'un rôle mineur : sur la période 1992-2000, il n'explique pas plus d'un dixième de la croissance des dépenses de soins. Nous procédons ici à une actualisation de cette étude sur la période 2000-2008. En reprenant les termes de l'analyse sur les deux périodes 1992-2000 et 2000-2008, nous procédons à des décompositions rétrospectives de l'impact des différents facteurs de la croissance des dépenses de santé. Ces décompositions sont obtenues grâce à l'estimation, sur des échantillons représentatifs des assurés français, de modèles de consommation de soins permettant de mettre en oeuvre des microsimulations CC : 002B30A11 FD : Dépense; Santé; Population; Sénescence; Financement; Assurance maladie; Innovation; Médecine; Classe âge; Morbidité; Hôpital; Médicament; Consultation; Evolution; Donnée statistique; Etude impact; Appariement; Simulation; France FG : Europe ED : Expenditure; Health; Population; Senescence; Financing; Health insurance; Innovation; Medicine; Age distribution; Morbidity; Hospital; Drug; Consultation; Evolution; Statistical data; Impact study; Pairing; Simulation; France EG : Europe SD : Gasto; Salud; Población; Senescencia; Financiación; Seguro enfermedad; Innovación; Medicina; Clase edad; Morbilidad; Hospital; Medicamento; Consulta; Evolución; Dato estadístico; Estudio impacto; Emparejamiento; Simulación; Francia LO : BDSP/IRDES 100/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0353467 INIST ET : To be screened or not to be screened? Modeling the consequences of PSA screening for the individual AU : WEVER (E. M.); HUGOSSON (J.); HEIJNSDIJK (Eam); BANGMA (C. H.); DRAISMA (G.); DE KONING (H. J.) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, PO Box 2040/Rotterdam 3000 CA/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 3 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut.); Department of Urology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Bruno stråket 11 B/41345, Göteborg/Suède (2 aut.); Department of Urology, Erasmus Medical Center, PO Box 2040/Rotterdam 3000 CA/Pays-Bas (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : British journal of cancer; ISSN 0007-0920; Coden BJCAAI; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2012; Vol. 107; No. 5; Pp. 778-784; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : BACKGROUND: Screening with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) can reduce prostate cancer mortality, but may advance diagnosis and treatment in time and lead to overdetection and overtreatment. We estimated benefits and adverse effects of PSA screening for individuals who are deciding whether or not to be screened. METHODS: Using a microsimulation model, we estimated lifetime probabilities of prostate cancer diagnosis and death, overall life expectancy and expected time to diagnosis, both with and without screening. We calculated anticipated loss in quality of life due to prostate cancer diagnosis and treatment that would be acceptable to decide in favour of screening. RESULTS: Men who were screened had a gain in life expectancy of 0.08 years but their expected time to diagnosis decreased by 1.53 life-years. Of the screened men, 0.99% gained on average 8.08 life-years and for 17.43% expected time to diagnosis decreased by 8.78 life-years. These figures imply that the anticipated loss in quality of life owing to diagnosis and treatment should not exceed 4.8%, for screening to have a positive effect on quality-adjusted life expectancy. CONCLUSION: The decision to be screened should depend on personal preferences. The negative impact of screening might be reduced by screening men who are more willing to accept the side effects from treatment. CC : 002B04; 002B14D02 FD : Marqueur tumoral; Dépistage; Modélisation; Cancer de la prostate; Antigène spécifique prostate; Homme; Espérance de vie; Cancérologie FG : Pathologie de l'appareil génital mâle; Pathologie de l'appareil urinaire; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Pathologie de la prostate ED : Tumoral marker; Medical screening; Modeling; Prostate cancer; Prostate specific antigen; Human; Life expectancy; Cancerology EG : Male genital diseases; Urinary system disease; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Prostate disease SD : Marcador tumoral; Descubrimiento; Modelización; Cáncer de la próstata; Antigeno específico prostata; Hombre; Esperanza de vida; Cancerología LO : INIST-6925.354000508124380040 101/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0347143 INIST ET : Development of a Population-Based Cost-Effectiveness Model of Chronic Graft-Versus-Host Disease in Spain AU : CRESPO (Carlos); PEREZ-SIMON (José Anton); MANUEL RODRIGUEZ (Jose); SIERRA (Jordi); BROSA (Max) AF : Statistics Department, University of Barcelona/Barcelona/Espagne (1 aut.); Oblikue Consulting/Barcelona/Espagne (1 aut., 5 aut.); Haematology Service, Instituto de Biomedicina de Sevilla (IBIS), Hospital Universitario Virgen del Rocío/ CSIC/Universidad de Sevilla/Seville/Espagne (2 aut.); HE&R Department, Director EMEA Therakos (Johnson & Johnson Company)/Madrid/Espagne (3 aut.); Haematology Service, Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau/Barcelona/Espagne (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Clinical therapeutics; ISSN 0149-2918; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; Vol. 34; No. 8; Pp. 1774-1787; Bibl. 65 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: Chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGvHD) is the leading cause of late nonrelapse mortality (transplant-related mortality) after hematopoietic stem cell transplant. Given that there are a wide range of treatment options for cGvHD, assessment of the associated costs and efficacy can help clinicians and health care providers allocate health care resources more efficiently. Objective: The purpose of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP) compared with rituximab (Rmb) and with imatinib (Imt) in patients with cGvHD at 5 years from the perspective of the Spanish National Health System. Methods: The model assessed the incremental costeffectiveness/utility ratio of ECP versus Rmb or Imt for 1000 hypothetical patients by using microsimulation cost-effectiveness techniques. Model probabilities were obtained from the literature. Treatment pathways and adverse events were evaluated taking clinical opinion and published reports into consideration. Local data on costs (2010 Euros) and health care resources utilization were validated by the clinical authors. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of the model. Results: The greater efficacy of ECP resulted in a gain of 0.011 to 0.024 quality-adjusted life-year in the first year and 0.062 to 0.094 at year 5 compared with Rmb or Imt. The results showed that the higher acquisition cost of ECP versus Imt was compensated for at 9 months by greater efficacy; this higher cost was partially compensated for (<euro sign>517) by year 5 versus Rmb. After 9 months, ECP was dominant (cheaper and more effective) compared with Imt. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ECP versus Rmb was <euro sign>29,646 per life-year gained and <euro sign>24,442 per quality-adjusted life-year gained at year 2.5. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the results. The main study limitation was that to assess relative treatment effects, only small studies were available for indirect comparison. Conclusion: ECP as a third-line therapy for cGvHD is a more cost-effective strategy than Rmb or Imt. CC : 002B02 FD : Développement; Santé publique; Economie santé; Analyse coût efficacité; Modèle; Chronique; Maladie du greffon contre l'hôte; Cellule souche; Cellule hématopoïétique; Homogreffe; Espagne; Greffe; Photophérèse; Traitement FG : Europe; Immunopathologie; Photothérapie ED : Development; Public health; Health economy; Cost efficiency analysis; Models; Chronic; Graft versus host disease; Stem cell; Hematopoietic cell; Homograft; Spain; Graft; Photopheresis; Treatment EG : Europe; Immunopathology; Phototherapy SD : Desarrollo; Salud pública; Economía salud; Análisis costo eficacia; Modelo; Crónico; Enfermedad injerto huesped; Célula primitiva; Célula hematopoyética; Homoinjerto; España; Injerto; Fotoferesis; Tratamiento LO : INIST-18353.354000508366010110 102/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0334917 INIST ET : Evolution of the Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet: Anticipating Adoption of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Across the U.S. Fleet AU : PAUL (Binny M.); KOCKELMAN (Kara M.); MUSTI (Sashank) AF : Ernest Cockrell Jr. Hall, and K. M. Kockelman, 6.9 Ernest Cockrell Jr. Hall, University of Texas at Austin/Austin, TX 78712-1076/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin/Austin, TX 78712-1076/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); Cambridge Systematics, 555 12th Street, Suite 1600/Oakland, CA 94607/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2252; Pp. 107-117; Bibl. 49 ref. LA : Anglais EA : With environmental degradation and energy security as serious concerns, it is important to anticipate how vehicle ownership and usage patterns can change under different policies and contexts. This work ascertains the acquisition, disposal, and use patterns of personal vehicles of a synthetic population over time and relies on microsimulation to anticipate fleet composition, usage, and greenhouse gas emissions under different settings. Twenty-five-year simulations predict the highest market share for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), hybrid electric vehicles, and smart cars and the greatest reductions in carbon emissions under an increased gasoline price ($7/gal). Results under a &dquot;feebate&dquot; policy scenario (where fees apply to low-fuel-economy vehicles, and rebates rise with fuel economies above a threshold) indicated a shift toward fuel-efficient vehicles but with vehicle miles traveled (VMT) rising, thanks to lower driving costs. Excepting the low PHEV price and feebate policy simulations, all other scenarios predicted a lower fleet VMT value. The high-density scenario (job and household densities quadrupled) resulted in the lowest vehicle ownership levels and lower VMT values and emissions. The low-PHEV-price scenario resulted in higher shares of PHEVs but negligible impacts from greenhouse gas emissions. Adoption and widespread use of plug-in vehicles will depend on marketing, competitive pricing, government incentives, reliable driving-range reports, and charging infrastructure. Though just 29 % of survey respondents stated support for a (specific) feebate policy, 35% indicated an interest in purchasing a PHEV if it cost just $6,000 more than its gasoline counterpart. CC : 001D15A; 001D16C04C FD : Transports; Flotte; Véhicule hybride; Véhicule électrique; Impact environnement; Gaz effet serre; Emission gaz; Evolution; Véhicule utilitaire; Etats-Unis; Analyse donnée; Statistique; Modèle; Critère sélection; Type véhicule; Simulation FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Fleet; Hybrid vehicle; Electric vehicle; Environment impact; Greenhouse gas; Gas emission; Evolution; Commercial vehicle; United States; Data analysis; Statistics; Models; Selection criterion; Vehicle type; Simulation EG : North America; America SD : Transportes; Vehículo híbrido; Vehículo eléctrico; Impacto medio ambiente; Gas efecto invernadero; Emisión gas; Evolución; Vehículo utilitario; Estados Unidos; Análisis datos; Estadística; Modelo; Criterio selección; Tipo vehículo; Simulación LO : INIST-10459B.354000508682650140 103/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0333917 INIST ET : Quality-of-Life Effects of Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening AU : HEIJNSDIJK (Eveline A. M.); WEVER (Elisabeth M.); AUVINEN (Anssi); HUGOSSON (Jonas); CIATTO (Stefano); NELEN (Vera); KWIATKOWSKI (Maciej); VILLERS (Arnauld); PAEZ (Alvaro); MOSS (Sue M.); ZAPPA (Marco); TAMMELA (Teuvo L. J.); MAKINEN (Tuukka); CARLSSON (Sigrid); KORFAGE (Ida J.); ESSINK-BOT (Marie-Louise); OTTO (Suzie J.); DRAISMA (Gerrit); BANGMA (Chris H.); ROOBOL (Monique J.); SCHRÖDER (Fritz H.); DE KONING (Harry J.) AF : Departments of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 15 aut., 17 aut., 18 aut., 22 aut.); Urology, Erasmus Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (19 aut., 20 aut., 21 aut.); Department of Public Health, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam/Amsterdam/Pays-Bas (16 aut.); Tampere School of Health Sciences, University of Tampere/Tampere/Finlande (3 aut.); Department of Urology, Tampere University Hospital, University of Tampere/Tampere/Finlande (12 aut.); Department of Surgery, Seinajoki Central Hospital/Seinajoki/Finlande (13 aut.); International Agency for Research on Cancer/Lyon/France (3 aut.); Department of Urology, Centre Hospitalier Regional Universitaire/Lille/France (8 aut.); Department of Urology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital/Gothenburg/Suède (4 aut.); Department of Diagnostic Medical Imaging, Institute for Cancer Prevention/Florence/Italie (14 aut.); Unit of Epidemiology, Institute for Cancer Prevention/Florence/Italie (11 aut.); Provinciaal Instituut voor Hygiene/Antwerp/Belgique (6 aut.); Department of Urology, Kantonsspital Aarau/Aarau/Suisse (7 aut.); Department of Urology, Hospital de Fuenlabrada/Madrid/Espagne (9 aut.); Centre for Cancer Prevention, Queen Mary University of London/London/Royaume-Uni (10 aut.); Department of Surgery (Urology), Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center/New York/Etats-Unis (14 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : The New England journal of medicine; ISSN 0028-4793; Coden NEJMAG; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; Vol. 367; No. 7; Pp. 595-605; Bibl. 54 ref. LA : Anglais EA : BACKGROUND After 11 years of follow-up, the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) reported a 29% reduction in prostate-cancer mortality among men who underwent screening for prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels. However, the extent to which harms to quality of life resulting from overdiagnosis and treatment counterbalance this benefit is uncertain. METHODS On the basis of ERSPC follow-up data, we used Microsimulation Screening Analysis (MISCAN) to predict the number of prostate cancers, treatments, deaths, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained after the introduction of PSA screening. Various screening strategies, efficacies, and quality-of-life assumptions were modeled. RESULTS Per 1000 men of all ages who were followed for their entire life span, we predicted that annual screening of men between the ages of 55 and 69 years would result in nine fewer deaths from prostate cancer (28% reduction), 14 fewer men receiving palliative therapy (35% reduction), and a total of 73 life-years gained (average, 8.4 years per prostate-cancer death avoided). The number of QALYs that were gained was 56 (range, -21 to 97), a reduction of 23% from unadjusted life-years gained. To prevent one prostate-cancer death, 98 men would need to be screened and 5 cancers would need to be detected. Screening of all men between the ages of 55 and 74 would result in more life-years gained (82) but the same number of QALYs (56). CONCLUSIONS The benefit of PSA screening was diminished by loss of QALYs owing to postdiagnosis long-term effects. Longer follow-up data from both the ERSPC and quality-of-life analyses are essential before universal recommendations regarding screening can be made. (Funded by the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development and others.). CC : 002B01; 002B30A03 FD : Qualité de vie; Homme; Antigène spécifique prostate; Marqueur tumoral; Prostate; Dépistage; Médecine FG : Appareil urogénital ED : Quality of life; Human; Prostate specific antigen; Tumoral marker; Prostate; Medical screening; Medicine EG : Urogenital system SD : Calidad vida; Hombre; Antigeno específico prostata; Marcador tumoral; Prostata; Descubrimiento; Medicina LO : INIST-6013.354000504426320030 104/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0332710 INIST ET : Correlated Parameters in Driving Behavior Models: Car-Following Example and Implications for Traffic Microsimulation AU : KIM (Jiwon); MAHMASSANI (Hani S.) AF : Transportation Center, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northwestern University, 600 Foster Street/Evanston, IL 60208/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2249; Pp. 62-77; Bibl. 18 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Behavioral parameters in car following and other models of driving behavior are expected to be correlated. An investigation is conducted into the effect of ignoring correlations in three parameters of car-following models on the resulting movement and properties of a simulated heterogeneous vehicle traffic stream. For each model specification, parameters are calibrated for the entire sample of individual drivers with Next Generation Simulation trajectory data. Factor analysis is performed to understand the pattern of relationships between parameters on the basis of calibrated data. Correlation coefficients have been used to show statistically significant correlation between the parameters. Simulation experiments are performed with vehicle parameter sets generated with and without considering such correlation. First, parameter values are sampled from the empirical mass functions, and simulated results show significant difference in output measures when parameter correlation is captured (versus ignored). Next, parameters are sampled under the assumption that they follow the multivariate normal distribution. Results suggest that the use of parametric distribution with known correlation structure may not sufficiently reduce the error due to ignoring correlation if the underlying assumption does not hold for both marginal and joint distributions. CC : 001D15C; 001D15A FD : Trafic routier; Conduite véhicule; Modélisation; Modèle comportement; Modèle simulation; Modèle microscopique; Corrélation; Exemple; Analyse factorielle; Méthode empirique; Durée trajet; Simulation; Suivi de véhicule ED : Road traffic; Vehicle driving; Modeling; Behavior model; Simulation model; Microscopic model; Correlation; Example; Factor analysis; Empirical method; Travel time; Simulation; Car following SD : Tráfico carretera; Conducción vehículo; Modelización; Modelo comportamiento; Modelo simulación; Modelo microscópico; Correlación; Ejemplo; Análisis factorial; Método empírico; Duración trayecto; Simulación LO : INIST-10459B.354000508650970090 105/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0332708 INIST ET : Modeling Driver Behavior at Freeway-Ramp Merges AU : KONDYLI (Alexandra); ELEFTERIADOU (Lily) AF : ANKA Consulting, Inc., North Plastira 79, North Erythraia 14671/Athens/Grèce (1 aut.); University of Florida, 365 Weil Hall, P.O. Box 116580/Gainesville, FL 32611/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2249; Pp. 29-37; Bibl. 23 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Freeway-ramp merging segments are important components of freeway facilities. The composite behavior of acceleration and gap acceptance of the merging traffic as well as the cooperative behavior of the freeway traffic can result in conflicts and trigger congestion. The goal of this research was to develop a ramp-merging model that considered the merging process as perceived by drivers and to investigate the contribution of individual drivers' merging behavior to the breakdown event. Focus group meetings were conducted, and drivers' merging behavior was observed in in-vehicle experiments. The data were used to develop a gap-acceptance model under different merging conditions and a model of driver behavior that predicted vehicle interactions on the freeway with merging vehicles, considering different driver types. A merging turbulence model that evaluated the effect of vehicle interactions on traffic flow also is presented. Study findings can be used to refine existing microsimulation models, realistically replicate freeway flow breakdown, and provide insight into the triggers of the breakdown of freeway flow. CC : 001D15C; 001D15A FD : Trafic routier; Autoroute; Rampe accès; Modélisation; Comportement; Accélération; Turbulence; Interaction; Véhicule routier; Décélération; Recommandation ED : Road traffic; Freeway; Access ramp; Modeling; Behavior; Acceleration; Turbulence; Interaction; Road vehicle; Deceleration; Recommendation SD : Tráfico carretera; Autopista; Rampa acceso; Modelización; Conducta; Aceleración; Turbulencia; Interacción; Vehículo caminero; Desaceleración; Recomendación LO : INIST-10459B.354000508650970050 106/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0328624 INIST ET : Same-Day Mode Choice Modeling with Household Vehicle Usage Simulation in Developing Countries AU : XIA WAN; YI ZHANG; JIN (Peter J.); BIN RAN; WEI WANG; JUN CHEN AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, and School of Transportation, Southeast University, Si Pai Lou 2/Nanjing 210096/Chine (1 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison/Madison, WI 53706/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 3 aut.); School of Transportation, Southeast University, Si Pai Lou 2/Nanjing 210096/Chine (4 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2239; Pp. 23-33; Bibl. 22 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper presents a model of same-day mode choice at the household level for developing countries. A rule-based algorithm combining classical random utility maximization theory within a microsimulation framework is used. Modeling of private vehicle usage (including vehicle allocation and sharing use in household) is an essential component of this model because vehicle deficiency is common in developing countries. This model consists of four steps: (a) the allocation of private vehicles (car, motorcycle, and bicycle) in a household, (b) the mode choice of private vehicle users specified in the first step, (c) vehicle sharing in a household, and (d) the mode choice of individuals who do not use private vehicles. The adaptability of the model was improved by simulations on car, motorcycle, and bicycle usage. Discrepancies in the mode choice behavior of household members with and without the use of private vehicles are captured in this paper through different modeling methods. The rule-based algorithm, binary logit model, multinomial logit model, and mixed logit model were applied together in this four-step model. Travel diary survey data from 2007 from Bengbu, China, were used as an example for the validation test of this model. The results demonstrate that this model can accurately predict the mode choice of all household members in an internally self-consistent and theoretically credible manner for a midsize city in China. The proposed model is highly conducive to travel demand forecasting and transportation policy making. CC : 001D15A; 001D15C FD : Transports; Pays en développement; Choix modal; Modélisation; Ménage; Modèle simulation; Analyse donnée; Etude cas; Enquête; Chine; Trafic routier; Modèle logit; Modèle prévision FG : Asie ED : Transportation; Developing countries; Modal choice; Modeling; Household; Simulation model; Data analysis; Case study; Survey; China; Road traffic; Logit model; Forecast model EG : Asia SD : Transportes; Países en desarrollo; Elección modal; Modelización; Familia; Modelo simulación; Análisis datos; Estudio caso; Encuesta; China; Tráfico carretera; Modelo logit; Modelo previsión LO : INIST-10459B.354000508650220040 107/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0327918 INIST ET : Modeling Highway Safety and Simulation in Rainy Weather AU : SOYOUNG JUNG; XIAO QIN; NOYCE (David A.) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, South Dakota State University, 148 Crothers Engineering Hall/Brookings, SD 57007/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1415 Engineering Drive/Madison, WI 53706-1691/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 291 Daehak-ro/Yuseong-gu Daejeon 305-701/Corée, République de (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2237; Pp. 134-143; Bibl. 37 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Research was done to examine comprehensively the safety impact of rainy weather conditions on multivehicle crash frequency and severity and to validate the impact on traffic operations through microsimulation modeling. Three primary tasks were performed to meet these objectives. For weather data processing, available data were used to estimate the following factors: rainfall intensity, water film depth, and deficiency of car-following distance. For statistical modeling, negative binomial regression was used for crash frequency, and sequential logistic regression was tested with forward and backward formats for crash severity. A better format for the crash severity estimation was determined by combining all model performance measures. VISSIM was used to design traffic simulation models to reflect the effect of weather on traffic operation with five scenarios of the following weather-sensitive parameter adjustments: desired deceleration rate function, desired speed distribution, and headway time. As weather-related determinants, daily rainfall and wind speed were found to be statistically significant to crash frequency and severity estimations, respectively. VISSIM provided the most similar traffic data to the observed data when both desired speed distribution and deceleration rate function were adjusted. Statistical modeling in this research can be used to examine highway safety in rainy weather and to provide quantitative support on implementing road weather safety management strategies. Correspondingly, the adjustments of weather-sensitive traffic parameters will be the preliminary step to measure the strategy efficiencies through safety surrogate indexes in traffic simulation. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O02; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Sécurité trafic; Modélisation; Temps météorologique; Modèle simulation; Fréquence; Accident circulation; Pluie; Modèle statistique; Traitement donnée; Base de données; Wisconsin; Indice gravité; Sécurité routière FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Traffic safety; Modeling; Weather; Simulation model; Frequency; Traffic accident; Rain; Statistical model; Data processing; Database; Wisconsin; Severity score; Road safety EG : United States; North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Seguridad tráfico; Modelización; Tiempo meteorológico; Modelo simulación; Frecuencia; Accidente tráfico; Lluvia; Modelo estadístico; Tratamiento datos; Base dato; Wisconsín; Indicio gravedad; Seguridad vial LO : INIST-10459B.354000509760840150 108/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0327913 INIST ET : Improved Time-to-Collision Definition for Simulating Traffic Conflicts on Truck-Only Infrastructure AU : BACHMANN (Chris); ROORDA (Matthew J.); ABDULHAI (Baher) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto/Toronto, Ontario M5S 1 A4/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2237; Pp. 31-40; Bibl. 20 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Transportation agencies have traditionally relied on historical crash records as the primary measure to evaluate the safety of roadways. The infrequent and sporadic occurrence of accidents and the long period required to collect accident data have led to the use of surrogate safety measures. The use of microsimulation modeling for conflict analysis has been popularized for evaluating experimental changes to existing road networks. Previous freeway studies have used a simplified time-to-collision definition, which produces unrealistic conflict situations. The definition included situations with no collision path, such as when two vehicles were traveling at the same speed or when the leading vehicle was speeding away from the following vehicle. A revised conflict definition is developed to address these issues and is then contrasted with the simplified definition used in earlier studies. An investigation of acceleration rates demonstrates that the revised approach retains the meaningful conflicts produced by the previous definition but eliminates the situations that are unlikely to be conflicts. This revised conflict definition is used to investigate the evaluation of a truck-only highway in the greater Toronto, Ontario, Canada, area to observe the effects on traffic conflicts. In general, it was found that although providing a separate highway for trucks did reduce truck-related conflicts, car lane-change conflicts increased because of the cars' increased maneuverability and presence on the truck-free highway. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O02; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Sécurité trafic; Analyse donnée; Accident circulation; Poids lourd; Voie réservée; Autoroute; Conflit; Méthode calcul; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Etude comparative; Etude cas; Canada; Temps avant la collision FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Traffic safety; Data analysis; Traffic accident; Heavy truck; Priority lane; Freeway; Conflict; Computing method; Modeling; Simulation model; Comparative study; Case study; Canada; Time to collision EG : North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Seguridad tráfico; Análisis datos; Accidente tráfico; Peso pesado; Vía prioritaria; Autopista; Conflicto; Método cálculo; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Estudio comparativo; Estudio caso; Canadá LO : INIST-10459B.354000509760840040 109/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0327100 INIST ET : Conflict Models for Single-Lane Roundabout Slip Lanes from Microsimulation: Development and Validation AU : AL-GHANDOUR (Majed N.); SCHROEDER (Bastian J.); WILLIAMS (Billy M.); RASDORF (William J.) AF : North Carolina Department of Transportation, Program Development Branch, 1 South Wilmington Street/Raleigh, NC 27601-1453/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State University, Centennial Campus Box 8601/Raleigh, NC 27695-8601/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Campus Box 7908/Raleigh, NC/Etats-Unis (3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2236; Pp. 92-101; Bibl. 17 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Conflict patterns at single-lane roundabouts with and without slip lanes were evaluated and compared through VISSIM, the microscopic simulation program for multimodal traffic flow modeling, and surrogate safety assessment model (SSAM) analysis. From a sensitivity analysis of several volume distribution scenarios of the percentage of turning traffic, five zone-based conflict prediction models were developed through the use of Poisson regression. The models captured simulated conflict differences that resulted from the addition of a right-turn slip lane. The models were evaluated under three exit control scenarios (yield, stop, and free-flow merge). With SSAM analysis, the models predicted the occurrence of conflicts for roundabout zones with different R-squared values, which ranged from .69 to .97. The models were compared with national and international crash prediction models for single-lane roundabouts and were further validated by actual crash data from 10 single-lane roundabouts in the city of Carmel, Indiana. The number of conflicts for a single-lane roundabout was predicted as a function of approach entry, circulation, and slip lane traffic flows and was determined to be sensitive to the slip lane exit type. Results confirmed that conflicts in the merge area were more frequent than in the roundabout approach area and that the installation of a free-flow slip lane exit type reduced overall conflict occurrence. The results demonstrated the usefulness of SSAM analysis for evaluating roundabout safety and developing an empirical relationship between simulated conflicts and field-observed crashes. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O02; 295 FD : Sécurité trafic; Trafic routier; Carrefour giratoire; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Conflit; Analyse donnée; Statistique descriptive; Modèle prévision ED : Traffic safety; Road traffic; Roundabout; Modeling; Simulation model; Conflict; Data analysis; Descriptive statistics; Forecast model SD : Seguridad tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Bifurcación giratoria; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Conflicto; Análisis datos; Estadística descriptiva; Modelo previsión LO : INIST-10459B.354000508650060110 110/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0290357 INIST ET : Simulating the impacts of climate change, prices and population on California's residential electricity consumption AU : AUFTHAMMER (Maximilian); AROONRUENGSAWAT (Anin); CAYAN (Daniel R.); MOSER (Susanne); FRANCO (Guido); HANEMANN (Michael); JONES (Myoung-Ae) AF : UC Berkeley ARE/IAS, 207 Giannini Hall/Berkeley, CA 94720-3310/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University/Bangkok/Thaïlande (2 aut.); Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California/San Diego, La Jolla, CA/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Stanford University/Santa Cruz, CA/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Economics Department, Arizona State University/Tempe, AZ/Etats-Unis (4 aut.); Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California/San diego, Sacramento, CA/Etats-Unis (5 aut.); U.S. Geological survey/La Jolla, CA/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); Suzanne Moser Research & Consulting/Santa Cruz, CA/Etats-Unis DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Climatic change; ISSN 0165-0009; Coden CLCHDX; Allemagne; Da. 2011; Vol. 109; No. SUP1; S191-S210; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This study simulates the impacts of higher temperatures resulting from anthropogenic climate change on residential electricity consumption for California. Flexible temperature response functions are estimated by climate zone, which allow for differential effects of days in different temperature bins on households' electricity consumption. The estimation uses a comprehensive household level dataset of electricity bills for California's three investor-owned utilities (Pacific Gas and Electric, San Diego Gas and Electric, and Southern California Edison). The results suggest that the temperature response varies greatly across climate zones. Simulation results using a downscaled version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research global circulation model suggest that holding population constant, total consumption for the households considered may increase by up to 55% by the end of the century. The study further simulates the impacts of higher electricity prices and different scenarios of population growth. Finally, simulations were conducted consistent with higher adoption of cooling equipment in areas which are not yet saturated, as well as gains in efficiency due to aggressive energy efficiency policies. CC : 001D06A01C4; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Consommation électricité; Secteur domestique; Changement climatique; Prix; Electricité; Accroissement population; Long terme; Simulation; Modélisation; Modèle économétrique; Etude cas; Californie FG : Climatologie dynamique; Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Electric power consumption; Residential sector; Climate change; Price; Electricity; Population growth; Long term; Simulation; Modeling; Econometric model; Case study; California EG : Dynamical climatology; United States; North America; America SD : Consumo electricidad; Sector doméstico; Cambio climático; Precio; Electricidad; Población crecimiento; Largo plazo; Simulación; Modelización; Modelo econométrico; Estudio caso; California LO : INIST-17218.354000508818210090 111/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0286899 INIST ET : TESTING FOR SMOOTH STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN TIME SERIES MODELS VIA NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION AU : CHEN (Bin); HONG (Yongmiao) AF : Dept. of Economics, University of Rochester/Rochester, NY 14627/Etats-Unis; Dept. of Economics and Dept. of Statistical Science, Cornell University/Ithaca, NY 14850/Etats-Unis; Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE) & MOE Key Laboratory of Econometrics, Xiamen University/Xiamen 361005/Chine DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Econometrica; ISSN 0012-9682; Coden ECMTA7; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2012; Vol. 80; No. 3; Pp. 1157-1183; Bibl. 1 p.3/4 LA : Anglais EA : Checking parameter stability of econometric models is a long-standing problem. Almost all existing structural change tests in econometrics are designed to detect abrupt breaks. Little attention has been paid to smooth structural changes, which may be more realistic in economics. We propose a consistent test for smooth structural changes as well as abrupt structural breaks with known or unknown change points. The idea is to estimate smooth time-varying parameters by local smoothing and compare the fitted values of the restricted constant parameter model and the unrestricted time-varying parameter model. The test is asymptotically pivotal and does not require prior information about the alternative. A simulation study highlights the merits of the proposed test relative to a variety of popular tests for structural changes. In an application, we strongly reject the stability of univariate and multivariate stock return prediction models in the postwar and post-oil-shocks periods. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02H02M; 001A02H02H; 001A02H02K FD : Méthode statistique; Processus stochastique; Autocorrélation; Estimation statistique; Estimation non paramétrique; Test statistique; Modèle structure; Série temporelle; Modèle régression; Stabilité numérique; Modèle économétrique; Econométrie; Plan expérience; Sciences économiques; Point changement; Temps local; Information a priori; Simulation statistique; Analyse multivariable; Théorie prédiction; Noyau(mathématiques); Méthode noyau; 62M10; 62G08; 62P20; 62K99; 05Bxx; 60J55; 35L67; Régression non paramétrique; Estimate régulière; Paramètre lissage; Rentabilité boursière ED : Statistical method; Stochastic process; Autocorrelation; Statistical estimation; Non parametric estimation; Statistical test; Structural model; Time series; Regression model; Numerical stability; Econometric model; Econometrics; Experimental design; Economic sciences; Change point; Local time; Prior information; Statistical simulation; Multivariate analysis; Prediction theory; Kernels; Kernel method; Nonparametric regression; Smooth estimate; Smoothing parameter; Stock return SD : Método estadístico; Proceso estocástico; Autocorrelación; Estimación estadística; Estimación no paramétrica; Test estadístico; Modelo estructura; Serie temporal; Modelo regresión; Estabilidad numérica; Modelo econométrico; Econometría; Plan experiencia; Ciencias económicas; Punto cambio; Tiempo local; Información a priori; Simulación estadística; Análisis multivariable; Método núcleo LO : INIST-2069.354000505298910070 112/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0279396 INIST ET : The Development of a Decision Analytic Model of Changes in Mean Deviation in People with Glaucoma: The COA Model AU : KYMES (Steven M.); LAMBERT (Dennis L.); LEE (Paul P.); MUSCH (David C.); SIEGFRIED (Carla J.); KOTAK (Sameer V.); STWALLEY (Dustin L.); FAIN (Joel); JOHNSON (Chris); GORDON (Mae O.) AF : Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, Washington University School of Medicine/St. Louis, Missouri/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 5 aut., 7 aut., 10 aut.); Center for Economic Evaluation in Medicine, Washington University/St. Louis, Missouri/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 7 aut.); Center for Health Policy, Washington University/St. Louis, Missouri/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Ophthalmology, Duke University/Durham, North Carolina/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, University of Michigan/Ann Arbor, Michigan/Etats-Unis (4 aut.); Pfizer Inc/New York, New York/Etats-Unis (6 aut., 8 aut.); Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, University of Iowa/Iowa City, Iowa/Etats-Unis (9 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Ophthalmology : (Rochester, MN); ISSN 0161-6420; Coden OPHTDG; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; Vol. 119; No. 7; Pp. 1367-1374; Bibl. 23 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Purpose: To create and validate a statistical model predicting progression of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) assessed by loss of visual field as measured in mean deviation (MD) using 3 landmark studies of glaucoma progression and treatment. Design: A Markov decision analytic model using patient level data described longitudinal MD changes over 7 years. Participants: Patient-level data from the Collaborative Initial Glaucoma Treatment Study (n = 607), the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS; n = 148; only those who developed POAG in the first 5 years of OHTS) and Advanced Glaucoma Intervention Study (n = 591), the COA model. Methods: We developed a Markov model with transition matrices stratified by current MD, age, race, and intraocular pressure categories and used a microsimulation approach to estimate change in MD over 7 years. Internal validation compared model prediction for 7 years to actual MD for COA participants. External validation used a cohort of glaucoma patients drawn from university clinical practices. Main Outcome Measures: Change in visual field as measured in MD in decibels (dB). Results: Regressing the actual MD against the predicted produced an R2 of 0.68 for the right eye and 0.63 for the left. The model predicted ending MD for right eyes of 65% of participants and for 63% of left eyes within 3 dB of actual results at 7 years. In external validation the model had an R2 of 0.79 in the right eye and 0.77 in the left at 5 years. Conclusions: The COA model is a validated tool for clinicians, patients, and health policy makers seeking to understand longitudinal changes in MD in people with glaucoma. Financial Disclosure(s): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references. CC : 002B09N; 002B09J FD : Glaucome; Développement; Modèle; Déviation; Glaucoma; Ophtalmologie FG : Ciliata; Protozoa; Pathologie de l'oeil ED : Glaucoma (eye); Development; Models; Deviation; Glaucoma; Ophthalmology EG : Ciliata; Protozoa; Eye disease SD : Glaucoma (ojo); Desarrollo; Modelo; Desviación; Glaucoma; Oftalmología LO : INIST-18914.354000500819350110 113/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0228763 INIST ET : Innovative Operating Solutions for Bus Rapid Transit Through a Congested Segment of San Jose, California AU : ISWALT (Michael); WONG (Corey); CONNOLLY (Kevin) AF : Arup, 560 Mission Street, 7th Floor/San Francisco, CA 94103/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority, 3331 North First Street, Building B2/San Jose, CA 95134/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2218; Pp. 27-38; Bibl. 4 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority in California recently developed a strategic plan for bus rapid transit (BRT) to establish a framework for BRT implementation. Stevens Creek Boulevard, an important east-west thoroughfare linking the California cities of San Jose and Cupertino, was one of three corridors selected for BRT service. To ensure the operating and ridership objectives along the Stevens Creek corridor, BRT must maintain adequate travel speeds and provide a convenient station location along the Valley Fair segment west of downtown San Jose. Meeting these objectives would be a challenge because the segment is highly congested and right-of-way constrained. Major shopping centers, existing land uses, and an Interstate freeway interchange are all factors that contribute to the operational challenges along the Valley Fair segment. These factors also limit any roadway widening and reconfiguration required to provide sufficient space for dedicated BRT lanes and station platforms. To provide some form of transit priority and a convenient BRT station at Valley Fair, a single reversible bus lane was proposed. This paper discusses the feasibility of a single reversible lane and key elements that led to a preferred configuration and operating plan. A range of options, including various station configurations and operating strategies, is evaluated. A microsimulation analysis of the options shows that a single reversible lane can generate significant operating benefits for BRT while not significantly affecting mixed-flow traffic. This paper and its results should encourage cities to consider single-lane reversible bus ways along constrained segments as part of a strategy to implement premium BRT service. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Transport voyageur; Transport routier; Autobus; Californie; Gestion trafic; Congestion trafic; Innovation; Planification stratégique; Méthode alternative; Expérience exploitation; Recommandation; Bus à haut niveau de service FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Passenger transportation; Road transportation; Bus; California; Traffic management; Traffic congestion; Innovation; Strategic planning; Alternative method; Operating experience; Recommendation; Bus rapid transit EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transporte pasajero; Transporte por carretera; Autobus; California; Gestión tráfico; Congestión tráfico; Innovación; Planificación estratégica; Método alternativo; Experiencia explotación; Recomendación; Autobús exprés LO : INIST-10459B.354000508608410040 114/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0226167 INIST ET : Integrated Multimodel Evaluation of Transit Bus Emissions in Toronto, Canada AU : LAU (Judith); HATZOPOULOU (Marianne); WAHBA (Mohamed M.); MILLER (Eric J.) AF : University of Toronto, 35 Saint George Street/Toronto, Ontario M5S 1 A4/Canada (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics, McGill University, 817 Sherbrooke Street West, Room 492/Montreal, Quebec H3A 2K6/Canada (2 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, University of British Columbia, 6250 Applied Science Lane/Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1 Z4/Canada (3 aut.); Director Cities Centre, University of Toronto, 455 Spadina Avenue, Suite 400/Toronto, Ontario, M5S 2G8/Canada (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; No. 2216; Pp. 1-9; Bibl. 31 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper investigates transit bus emissions in the city of Toronto, Ontario, Canada, by linking the results of a microsimulation transit assignment model, MILATRAS (microsimulation learning-based approach to transit assignment), with emission factors derived from Mobile6.2C. Emissions were estimated at the level of individual buses during idling conditions at bus stops and on roadway links between stops during the morning peak period. The busiest routes were associated with the highest total emissions as a result of a combination of high ridership and lower speeds; this association confirmed the common wisdom that newer, low-emitting buses should be first allocated to these routes. The highest dwell emissions occurred at intermodal transfer stations (bus to subway and vice versa). On a passenger kilometer basis, the highest-emitting routes were not the busiest, but rather were those with the lowest ridership. In fact, the highest emissions per passenger kilometer were associated with the Airport Rocket, a route that provided service to the airport and was characterized by low ridership in the morning peak period. On average, bus trips in Toronto were about three times more fuel efficient than were private car trips and created 20 times less carbon monoxide pollution. The effects of changing fuel types and fleet age on transit bus emissions were assessed. Implications for bus operations are discussed relative to fleet allocation to minimize total emissions. CC : 001D15C; 001D16C04C FD : Autobus; Canada; Modélisation; Emission gaz; Trafic routier urbain; Modèle simulation; Transport public; Affectation trafic; Scénario FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Bus; Canada; Modeling; Gas emission; Urban road traffic; Simulation model; Public transportation; Traffic assignment; Script EG : North America; America SD : Autobus; Canadá; Modelización; Emisión gas; Tráfico vial urbano; Modelo simulación; Transporte público; Afectación tráfico; Argumento LO : INIST-10459B.354000508682240010 115/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0216279 INIST ET : Large-scale application of MILATRAS: case study of the Toronto transit network : Multi-Dimensional Advances in Travel Modeling AU : WAHBA (Mohamed); SHALABY (Amer) AF : Department of Civil Engineering. University of British Columbia, 6250 Applied Science Lane/Vancouver, BC V6T IZ4/Canada (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering. University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street/Toronto, ON M5S IA4/Canada (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation; ISSN 0049-4488; Coden TNPRDN; Allemagne; Da. 2011; Vol. 38; No. 6; Pp. 889-908; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper documents the efforts to operationalize the conceptual framework of MIcrosimulation Learning-based Approach to TRansit Assignment (MILATRAS) and its component models of departure time and path choices. It presents a large-scale real-world application, namely the multi-modal transit network of Toronto which is operated by the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC). This large-scale network is represented by over 500 branches with more than 10,000 stops. About 332,000 passenger-agents are modelled to represent the demand for the TTC in the AM peak period. A learning-based departure time and path choice model was adopted using the concept of mental models for the modelling of the transit assignment problem. The choice model parameters were calibrated such that the entropy of the simulated route loads was optimized with reference to the observed route loads, and validated with individual choices. A Parallel Genetic Algorithm engine was used for the parameter calibration process. The modelled route loads, based on the calibrated parameters, greatly approximate the distribution underlying the observed loads. 75% of the exact sequence of transfer point choices were correctly predicted by the off-stop/on-stop choice mechanism. The model predictability of the exact sequence of route transfers was about 60%. In this application, transit passengers were assumed to plan their transit trip based on their experience with the transportation network; with no prior (or perfect) knowledge of service performance. CC : 001D15B FD : Transport public; Modélisation; Apprentissage; Demande transport; Algorithme génétique; Application; Echelle grande; Etude cas; Réseau transport; Affectation trafic; Canada; Etalonnage FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Public transportation; Modeling; Learning; Transport demand; Genetic algorithm; Application; Large scale; Case study; Transportation network; Traffic assignment; Canada; Calibration EG : North America; America SD : Transporte público; Modelización; Aprendizaje; Demanda transporte; Algoritmo genético; Aplicación; Escala grande; Estudio caso; Red transporte; Afectación tráfico; Canadá; Contraste LO : INIST-15985.354000507860120030 116/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0211111 INIST ET : Contribution of Screening and Survival Differences to Racial Disparities in Colorectal Cancer Rates AU : LANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris); KUNTZ (Karen M.); KNUDSEN (Amy B.); VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein); ZAUBER (Ann G.); JEMAL (Ahmedin) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 4 aut.); Division of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota/Minneapolis, Minnesota/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Institute for Technology Assessment, Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital/Boston, Massachusetts/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center/New York, New York/Etats-Unis (5 aut.); Surveillance and Health Policy Research, American Cancer Society/Atlanta, Georgia/Etats-Unis (6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention; ISSN 1055-9965; Coden CEBPE4; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; Vol. 21; No. 5; Pp. 728-736; Bibl. 62 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: Considerable disparities exist in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality rates between blacks and whites in the United States. We estimated how much of these disparities could be explained by differences in CRC screening and stage-specific relative CRC survival. Methods: We used the MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model to estimate CRC incidence and mortality rates in blacks, aged 50 years and older, from 1975 to 2007 assuming they had: (i) the same trends in screening rates as whites instead of observed screening rates (incidence and mortality); (ii) the same trends in stage-specific relative CRC survival rates as whites instead of observed (mortality only); and (iii) a combination of both. The racial disparities in CRC incidence and mortality rates attributable to differences in screening and/or stage-specific relative CRC survival were then calculated by comparing rates from these scenarios to the observed black rates. Results: Differences in screening accounted for 42% of disparity in CRC incidence and 19% of disparity in CRC mortality between blacks and whites. Thirty-six percent of the disparity in CRC mortality could be attributed to differences in stage-specific relative CRC survival. Together screening and survival explained a little more than 50% of the disparity in CRC mortality between blacks and whites. Conclusion: Differences in screening and relative CRC survival are responsible for a considerable proportion of the observed disparities in CRC incidence and mortality rates between blacks and whites. Impact: Enabling blacks to achieve equal access to care as whites could substantially reduce the racial disparities in CRC burden. CC : 002B04; 002B13B01 FD : Cancer colorectal; Dépistage; Survie; Etude comparative; Race; Ethnie; Epidémiologie; Disparité; Taux; Cancérologie FG : Pathologie de l'appareil digestif; Pathologie du côlon; Pathologie de l'intestin; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Pathologie du rectum ED : Colorectal cancer; Medical screening; Survival; Comparative study; Race; Ethnic group; Epidemiology; Disparity; Rate; Cancerology EG : Digestive diseases; Colonic disease; Intestinal disease; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Rectal disease SD : Cancer de colon y recto; Descubrimiento; Sobrevivencia; Estudio comparativo; Raza; Etnia; Epidemiología; Disparidad; Tasa; Cancerología LO : INIST-26637.354000509873050060 117/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0209211 INIST ET : The cost-effectiveness of routine tuberculosis screening with Xpert MTB/RIF prior to initiation of antiretroviral therapy: a model-based analysis AU : ANDREWS (Jason R.); LAWN (Stephen D.); RUSU (Corina); WOOD (Robin); NOUBARY (Farzad); BENDER (Melissa A.); ROBERT HORSBURGH (C.); LOSINA (Elena); FREEDBERG (Kenneth A.); WALENSKY (Rochelle P.) AF : Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital/Boston, Massachusetts/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 9 aut., 10 aut.); Harvard Medical School/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 8 aut., 9 aut., 10 aut.); Division of General Medicine/Etats-Unis (3 aut., 5 aut., 8 aut., 9 aut., 10 aut.); Medical Practice Evaluation Center, Massachusetts General Hospital/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 3 aut., 5 aut., 8 aut., 9 aut., 10 aut.); Harvard Center for AIDS Research/Boston, Massachusetts/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 5 aut., 8 aut., 9 aut., 10 aut.); Desmond Tutu HIV Centre, Institute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town/Cape Town/Afrique du Sud (2 aut., 4 aut.); Department of Clinical Research, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine/London/Royaume-Uni (2 aut.); Division of Infectious Diseases, New York University School of Medicine/New York, New York/Etats-Unis (6 aut.); Departments of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health/Etats-Unis (7 aut., 9 aut.); Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health/Etats-Unis (8 aut.); Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Brigham and Women's Hospital/Etats-Unis (8 aut.); Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard School of Public Health/Boston, Massachusetts/Etats-Unis (9 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : AIDS : (London); ISSN 0269-9370; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; Vol. 26; No. 8; Pp. 987-995; Bibl. 38 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: In settings with high tuberculosis (TB) prevalence, 15-30% of HIV-infected individuals initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) have undiagnosed TB. Such patients are usually screened by symptoms and sputum smear, which have poor sensitivity. Objective: To project the clinical and economic outcomes of using Xpert MTB/ RIF(Xpert), a rapid TB/rifampicin-resistance diagnostic, to screen individuals initiating ART. Design: We used a microsimulation model to evaluate the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of alternative TB screening modalities - in all patients or only symptomatic patients - for hypothetical cohorts of individuals initiating ART in South Africa (mean CD4 cell count=171 cells/&mgr;l; TB prevalence 22%). We simulated no active screening and four diagnostic strategies, smear microscopy (sensitivity 23%); smear and culture (sensitivity, 100%); one Xpert sample (sensitivity in smear-negative TB: 43%); two Xpert samples (sensitivity in smear-negative TB: 62%). Outcomes included projected life expectancy, lifetime costs (2010 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Strategies with ICERs less than $7100 (South African gross domestic product per capita) were considered very cost-effective. Results: Compared with no screening, life expectancy in TB-infected patients increased by 1.6 months using smear in symptomatic patients and by 6.6 months with two Xpert samples in all patients. At 22% TB prevalence, the ICER of smear for all patients was $2800 per year of life saved (YLS), and of Xpert (two samples) for all patients was $5100/ YLS. Strategies involving one Xpert sample or symptom screening were less efficient. Conclusion: Model-based analysis suggests that screening all individuals initiating ART in South Africa with two Xpert samples is very cost-effective. CC : 002B05C02D; 002B05B02O; 002B02S05 FD : Tuberculose; SIDA; Antiviral; Chimiothérapie; Analyse coût efficacité; Dépistage; Virus immunodéficience humaine; Antirétroviral; Modèle; Diagnostic FG : Mycobactériose; Bactériose; Infection; Virose; Traitement; Lentivirus; Retroviridae; Virus; Economie santé; Immunodéficit; Immunopathologie; Santé publique ED : Tuberculosis; AIDS; Antiviral; Chemotherapy; Cost efficiency analysis; Medical screening; Human immunodeficiency virus; Antiretroviral agent; Models; Diagnosis EG : Mycobacterial infection; Bacteriosis; Infection; Viral disease; Treatment; Lentivirus; Retroviridae; Virus; Health economy; Immune deficiency; Immunopathology; Public health SD : Tuberculosis; SIDA; Antiviral; Quimioterapia; Análisis costo eficacia; Descubrimiento; Human immunodeficiency virus; Antiretroviral; Modelo; Diagnóstico LO : INIST-22094.354000509874790100 118/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0200625 INIST ET : Generating small-area prevalence of psychological distress and alcohol consumption: validation of a spatial microsimulation method AU : RIVA (Mylène); SMITH (Dianna M.) AF : Department of Geography, Institute of Hazards, Risk and Resilience, Durham University, Science Laboratories, South Road/Durham DH1 3LE/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.); School of Geography, Queen Mary, University of London, Mile End Road/London E1 4NS/Royaume-Uni (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology : (Print); ISSN 0933-7954; Coden SPPEEM; Allemagne; Da. 2012; Vol. 47; No. 5; Pp. 745-755; Bibl. 42 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Purpose Public mental health surveillance data are rarely available at a fine geographic scale. This study applies a spatial microsimulation procedure to generate small-area (Lower Super Outputs Areas [LSOA]) estimates of psychological distress and alcohol consumption. The validity of LSOA estimates and their associations with proximal and broader socioeconomic conditions are examined. Methods A deterministic reweighting methodology assigns prevalence estimates for psychological distress and heavy alcohol consumption through a process of matching individuals from a large, population-representative dataset (Health Survey for England) to known LSOA populations (from the 2001 population Census). 'Goodness-of-fit' of LSOA estimates is assessed by their comparison to observed prevalence of these health indicators at higher levels of aggregation (Local Authority Districts [LAD]). Population prevalence estimates are correlated to the Mental Health Needs Index (MINI) and other health indicators; ordered logistic regression is applied to investigate their associations with proximal and broader socioeconomic conditions. Results Performance of microsimulation models is high with no more than 10% errors in at least 90% of LAD for psychological distress and moderate and heavy alcohol consumption. The MINI is strongly correlated with psychological distress (r = 0.910; p value <0.001) and moderately with heavy drinking (r = 0.389; p value <0.001). Psychological distress and heavy alcohol consumption are differently associated with socioeconomic and rurality indicators at the LSOA level. Associations further vary at the LAD level and regional variations are apparent. Conclusion Spatial microsimulation may be an appropriate methodological approach for replicating social and demographic health patterns at the local level. CC : 002B18H; 002B18C14 FD : Prévalence; Santé publique; Détresse psychologique; Boisson alcoolisée; Santé mentale; Angleterre; Homme FG : Grande Bretagne; Royaume-Uni; Europe; Epidémiologie ED : Prevalence; Public health; Psychological distress; Alcoholic beverage; Mental health; England; Human EG : Great Britain; United Kingdom; Europe; Epidemiology SD : Prevalencia; Salud pública; Desamparo psicológico; Bebida alcohólica; Salud mental; Inglaterra; Hombre LO : INIST-13204.354000506906020080 119/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0191830 INIST ET : Projected Clinical Outcomes of Glaucoma Screening in African American Individuals AU : LADAPO (Joseph A.); KYMES (Steven M.); LADAPO (Jonathan A.); NWOSU (Veronica C.); PASQUALE (Louis R.) AF : Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Brigham and Women's Hospital/Boston, Massachusetts/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Harvard Medical School, Brigham and Women's Hospital/Boston, Massachusetts/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 5 aut.); Department of Ophthalmology, Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary, Brigham and Women's Hospital/Boston, Massachusetts/Etats-Unis (5 aut.); Channing Laboratory, Brigham and Women's Hospital/Boston, Massachusetts/Etats-Unis (5 aut.); Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences and Center for Economic Evaluation in Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine/St Louis, Missouri/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Department of Biology, North Carolina Central University/Durham/Royaume-Uni (3 aut., 4 aut.); Department of Medicine, New York University School of Medicine/New York/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Archives of ophthalmology : (1960); ISSN 0003-9950; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; Vol. 130; No. 3; Pp. 365-372; Bibl. 47 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Objectives: To project the clinical impact of routine glaucoma screening on visual outcomes in middle-aged African American individuals and help guide glaucoma screening policy. Methods: Using data from the Eye Diseases Prevalence Research Group and Baltimore Eye Study, we developed a microsimulation model to project visual outcomes in African American individuals screened for glaucoma under a national screening policy using frequency-doubling technology. We projected the impact of universal screening on glaucoma-related visual impairment (acuity worse than 20/40 but better than 20/200 in the better-seeing eye) and blindness (acuity 20/200 or worse in the better-seeing eye). The diagnostic characteristics of frequency-doubling technology and the hazard ratio for glaucoma progression in treated patients were informed by meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials. Results: Implementation of a national glaucoma screening policy for a cohort of African American individuals between the ages of 50 and 59 years without known glaucoma would reduce the lifetime prevalence of undiagnosed glaucoma from 50% to 27%, the prevalence of glaucoma-related visual impairment from 4.6% to 4.4% (4.1% relative decrease), and the prevalence of glaucoma-related blindness from 6.1% to 5.6% (7.1% relative decrease). We project the cost of the program to be $80 per screened individual, considering only the cost of frequency-doubling technology and confirmatory eye examinations. The number needed to screen to diagnose 1 person with glaucoma is 58. The number needed to screen to prevent 1 person from developing visual impairment is 875. Conclusions: Routine glaucoma screening for middle-aged African American individuals is potentially clinically effective but its impact on visual impairment and blindness may be modest. However, we did not assess the impact on visual field loss. CC : 002B09N; 002B09J FD : Glaucome; Projet; Pronostic; Evolution; Glaucoma; Dépistage; Afro Américain; Homme; Ophtalmologie FG : Ciliata; Protozoa; Pathologie de l'oeil ED : Glaucoma (eye); Project; Prognosis; Evolution; Glaucoma; Medical screening; African American; Human; Ophthalmology EG : Ciliata; Protozoa; Eye disease SD : Glaucoma (ojo); Proyecto; Pronóstico; Evolución; Glaucoma; Descubrimiento; Afroamericano; Hombre; Oftalmología LO : INIST-2033.354000509801690120 120/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0189937 INIST ET : Cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening: cytology versus human papillomavirus DNA testing AU : ROSMALEN (J. Van); DE KOK (Imcm); BALLEGOOIJEN (M. Van) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : BJOG : (Oxford. Print); ISSN 1470-0328; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2012; Vol. 119; No. 6; Pp. 699-709; Bibl. 54 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Objective To determine the most cost-effective screening programme for cervical cancer. Design Cost-effectiveness analysis from a societal perspective. Setting The Netherlands. Population Dutch women who have not been invited for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. Methods We calibrated the microsimulation screening analysis (MISCAN) model to Dutch epidemiological data. We used this model to consider nine screening strategies that use: (i) cytological testing with cytology triage for borderline/mildly abnormal smears; (ii) HPV testing with cytology triage for HPV-positive smears; or (iii) cytological testing with HPV triage for borderline/ mildly abnormal smears. For each strategy, we varied the number of screening rounds, the time interval, the age of the first screening, and the type of cytological testing (conventional or liquid-based cytology). Main outcome measures Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and costs from a societal perspective. Results Under the base-case assumptions, primary HPV testing with cytology triage is the most cost-effective strategy. Using cost-effectiveness thresholds of <euro sign>20 000 and <euro sign>50 000 per QALY gained yields optimal screening programmes with three and seven screening rounds, respectively. The results are sensitive to several uncertain model inputs, most importantly the costs of the HPV test. For women aged 32 years or younger, primary cytology screening is more cost-effective than primary HPV testing. Conclusions Increasing the interval between screening rounds and changing the primary test from cytology to HPV testing can improve the effectiveness and decrease the costs of cervical cancer screening in the Netherlands. CC : 002B20 FD : Cytologie; Analyse coût efficacité; Etude comparative; DNA; Gynécologie; Obstétrique; Carcinome col utérus FG : Economie santé; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Santé publique ED : Cytology; Cost efficiency analysis; Comparative study; DNA; Gynecology; Obstetrics EG : Health economy; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Public health SD : Citología; Análisis costo eficacia; Estudio comparativo; DNA; Ginecología; Obstétrico LO : INIST-1086.354000509669110090 121/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0160848 INIST ET : The long term financial impacts of CVD: Living standards in retirement AU : SCHOFIELD (Deborah); KELLY (Simon); SHRESTHA (Rupendra); PASSEY (Megan); CALLANDER (Emily); PERCIVAL (Richard) AF : NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney/Camperdown, NSW/Australie (1 aut., 3 aut., 5 aut.); School of Public Health, University of Sydney/NSW/Australie (1 aut., 5 aut.); National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of Canberra/Canberra, ACT/Australie (2 aut., 6 aut.); Northern Rivers University Department of Rural Health, University of Sydney/Lismore, NSW/Australie (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : International journal of cardiology; ISSN 0167-5273; Coden IJCDD5; Irlande; Da. 2012; Vol. 155; No. 3; Pp. 406-408; Bibl. 25 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has significant economic costs, however these are generally estimated for the present-time and little consideration is given to the long term economic consequences. This study estimates the value of savings those who retire early due to CVD will have accumulated by the time they reach the traditional retirement age of 65 years, and how much lower the value of these savings are compared to those who remained healthy and in the workforce. Methods: Using Health&WealthMOD - a microsimulation model of Australians aged 45 to 64 years, regression models were used to analyse the differences between the projected savings and the retirement incomes of people by the time they reach age 65 for those currently working with no chronic condition, and people not in the labour force due to CVD. Results: Over 99% of individuals who are employed full-time will have accumulated some savings at age 65; whereas only 77% of those who are out of the labour force due to CVD will have done so. Those who retire early due to CVD will have a median value of total savings by the time they are 65 of $1833. This is far lower than the expected median value of savings for those who remained in the labour force full-time, who will have $281841 of savings. Conclusions: Not only will early retirement due to cardiovascular disease limit the immediate income and wealth available to individuals, but also reduce their long term financial capacity by reducing their savings. CC : 002B12 FD : Long terme; Etalon; Norme; Impact économique; Aspect économique; Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire; Cardiologie; Maladie cardiovasculaire FG : Economie santé; Epidémiologie; Santé publique ED : Long term; Standard; Standards; Economic impact; Economic aspect; Cardiovascular disease; Cardiology; Cardiovascular disease EG : Health economy; Epidemiology; Public health SD : Largo plazo; Marco; Norma; Impacto económico; Aspecto económico; Aparato circulatorio patología; Cardiología; Cardiovascular enfermedad LO : INIST-16457.354000194653850100 122/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0156311 INIST ET : On the fundamental diagram and supply curves for congested urban networks AU : RONGHUI LIU; MAY (Tony); SHEPHERD (Simon); CASSIDY (Michael J.); SKABARDONIS (Alexander) AF : Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds/Leeds LS2 9JT/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice; ISSN 0965-8564; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2011; Vol. 45; No. 9; Pp. 951-965; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Macroscopic fundamental diagrams (MFD) of traffic for some networks have been shown to have similar shape to those for single links. They have erroneously been used to help estimate the level of travel in congested networks. We argue that supply curves, which track vehicles in their passage through congested networks, are needed for this purpose, and that they differ from the performance curves generated from MFD. We use a microsimulation model, DRACULA and two networks, one synthesizing the network for Cambridge, England, and one of the city of York, England, to explore the nature of performance curves and supply curves under differing patterns of demand. We show that supply curves differ from performance curves once the onset of congestion is reached, and that the incorrect use of performance curves to estimate demand can thus seriously underestimate traffic levels, the costs of congestion, and the value of congestion relief measures. We also show that network aggregated supply curves are sensitive to the temporal distribution of demand and, potentially, to the spatial distribution of demand. The shape of the supply curve also differs between origin-destination movements within a given network. We argue that supply curves for higher levels of demand cannot be observed in normal traffic conditions, and specify ways in which they can be determined from microsimulation and, potentially, by extrapolating observed data. We discuss the implications of these findings for conventional modelling of network management policies, and for these policies themselves. CC : 001D14O02; 001D15B; 295 FD : Réseau transport; Réseau urbain; Economie transport; Demande transport; Modélisation; Congestion trafic; Modèle simulation; Politique transport; Etude théorique; Application; Méthodologie; Expérimentation; Simulation; Etude comparative; Vitesse déplacement; Offre transport ED : Transportation network; Urban district network; Economy of transports; Transport demand; Modeling; Traffic congestion; Simulation model; Transportation policy; Theoretical study; Application; Methodology; Experimentation; Simulation; Comparative study; Speed; Transportation supply SD : Red transporte; Red urbana; Economía transporte; Demanda transporte; Modelización; Congestión tráfico; Modelo simulación; Política transporte; Estudio teórico; Aplicación; Metodología; Experimentación; Simulación; Estudio comparativo; Velocidad desplazamiento; Oferta transporte LO : INIST-12377A.354000191216400080 123/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0155952 BDSP FT : Prévenir la pauvreté chez les travailleurs belges : réflexions sur les options politiques AU : MARX (I.); VERBIST (G.); VANHILLE (J.); et al. AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : REVUE BELGE DE SECURITE SOCIALE; Belgique; Da. 2011-01/2011-03; Vol. 53; No. 1; Pp. 3-45; Bibl. dissem.; 13 tabl., 11 graph. LA : Français FA : Au cours de ces dernières années, l'on est devenu de plus en plus conscient que la pauvreté financière était également présente chez les travailleurs, y compris chez certains travailleurs à temps plein et qui, dès lors, s'engagent au maximum pour acquérir une indépendance financière. En Belgique, environ une personne sur cinq d'âge actif subissant une situation de précarité financière a un emploi. Il existe également un chevauchement important avec la pauvreté enfantine - en effet, environ 60% des enfants qui grandissent dans un milieu frappé de pauvreté financière vivent dans un ménage ayant au moins un gagne-pain. Ceci va à l'encontre des notions largement admises de justice sociale. Cet article commence par esquisser succinctement la problématique des travailleurs pauvres en Belgique, et ceci tout particulièrement en fonction d'une conceptualisation politique adéquate. Ensuite, il passe systématiquement en revue un certain nombre d'options politiques. A cette occasion, il recourt à la technique de microsimulation pour obtenir une indication de l'éventuel impact sur la pauvreté CC : 002B30A11 FD : Politique sociale; Pauvreté; Employé; Revenu individuel; Seuil; Coût; Travail; Charges sociales; Donnée statistique; Analyse; Problème; Définition; Simulation; Belgique FG : Europe ED : Social policy; Poverty; Employee; Personal income; Threshold; Costs; Work; Social charges; Statistical data; Analysis; Problem; Definition; Simulation; Belgium EG : Europe SD : Política social; Pobreza; Empleado; Renta personal; Umbral; Coste; Trabajo; Cargas sociales; Dato estadístico; Análisis; Problema; Definición; Simulación; Belgica LO : BDSP/IRDES-P196, CODBAR 0063540 124/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0096499 INIST ET : Can unbiased be tighter? Assessment of methods to reduce the bias-variance trade-off in WTP estimation AU : GENIUS (Margarita); STRAZZERA (Elisabetta) AF : Department of Economics, University of Crete, University Campus/74100 Rethymno/Grèce (1 aut.); Department of Economic and Social Research, University of Cagliari, Via Fra Ignazio 78/09123, Cagliari/Italie (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Resource and energy economics; ISSN 0928-7655; Pays-Bas; Da. 2011; Vol. 33; No. 1; Pp. 293-314; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper aims at verifying the claim, appeared in recent literature, that it is possible to control for response bias associated to the double bound elicitation method, while keeping gains in efficiency of the WTP estimates. Results from a Monte Carlo analysis lead, in general, to reject the claim; but when initial bids are not correctly chosen, the gains in efficiency are confirmed. An empirical application dealing with WTP estimation for drinking water quality improvements illustrates a case where a flexible modeling approach based on Copula distributions allows relevant gains with respect to the Single Bound estimator. . CC : 001D14J01; 001D14C03; 295 FD : Qualité eau; Eau potable; Modélisation; Estimation; Consentement à payer; Erreur systématique; Méthode évaluation contingente; Loi 2 variables; Variance; Modèle économétrique; Méthode Monte Carlo; Simulation; Expérimentation; Méthode empirique ED : Water quality; Drinking water; Modeling; Estimation; Willingness to pay; Bias; Contingent valuation method; Bivariate distribution; Variance; Econometric model; Monte Carlo method; Simulation; Experimentation; Empirical method SD : Calidad agua; Agua potable; Modelización; Estimación; Disposición a pagar; Error sistemático; Método evaluación contingente; Ley 2 variables; Variancia; Modelo econométrico; Método Monte Carlo; Simulación; Experimentación; Método empírico LO : INIST-17835.354000191855790190 125/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0089350 INIST ET : Multiscale Simulation and Experimental Study of Novel SiC Structured Packings AU : XINGANG LI; GUOHUA GAO; LUHONG ZHANG; HONG SUI; HONG LI; XIN GAO; ZHENMING YANG; CHONG TIAN; JINSONG ZHANG AF : School of Chemical Engineering and Technology, Tianjin University/Tianjin 300072/Chine (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut.); National Engineering Research Centre of Distillation Technology/Tianjin 300072/Chine (1 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut.); Institute of Metal Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), 72 Wenhua Road/Shenyang 110016/Chine (7 aut., 8 aut., 9 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Industrial & engineering chemistry research; ISSN 0888-5885; Coden IECRED; Etats-Unis; Da. 2012; Vol. 51; No. 2; Pp. 915-924; Bibl. 29 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Two SiC corrugated structured packings are developed: one being smooth plate and the other made of porous SiC foam. Accordingly, a macroscale three-dimensional (3D) geometric module of two corrugated sheets is introduced with a periodic boundary and a microscale computational geometry is gained from arrayed tetrakaidecahedrons. Single-phase modeling is carried out in the macro module to determine the dry pressure drops for the two types of packing. The results show that the porous SiC packing has a higher pressure drop than that of the smooth one. Two-phase flow for smooth packing is simulated with a VOF-like model provided by CFX in the macroscale geometry. It is found that openings in corrugated plates can improve the film distribution and mass-transfer efficiency. Microsimulation of two-phase flow in the porous SiC packing is performed, and the results prove that liquid can go inside the SiC foam and extend along the foam matrix with a velocity. Therefore, the porous foam can provide a larger effective gas-liquid interfacial area for mass transfer, which explains its larger theoretical plate number, compared to the smooth packing. Performance parameters including pressure drop and liquid holdup have been measured to validate the simulation method, while the distillation experiments have been carried out to study the mass-transfer efficiency of the novel SiC packings. CC : 001D07G FD : Garnissage rangé ED : Ordered packing SD : Relleno ordenado LO : INIST-120F.354000508673820360 126/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0079970 INIST ET : Double Generalized Spatial Econometric Models AU : CEPEDA-CUERVO (Edilberto); PIEDAD URDINOLA (B.); RODRIGUEZ (Diana) AF : Departamento de Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Colombia/Bogotá/Colombie (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Communications in statistics. Simulation and computation; ISSN 0361-0918; Coden CSSCDB; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2012; Vol. 41; No. 3-5; Pp. 671-685; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : The authors offer a unified method extending traditional spatial dependence with normally distributed error terms to a new class of spatial models based on the biparametric exponential family of distributions. Joint modeling of the mean and variance (or precision) parameters is proposed in this family of distributions, including spatial correlation. The proposed models are applied for analyzing Colombian land concentration, assuming that the variable of interest follows normal, gamma, and beta distributions. In all cases, the models were fitted using Bayesian methodology with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for sampling from joint posterior distribution of the model parameters. CC : 001A02I01Q; 001A02H02J; 001A02H02F; 001A02H01J FD : Méthode statistique; Simulation numérique; Régression statistique; Analyse variance; Analyse covariance; Distribution statistique; Théorie approximation; Méthode stochastique; Analyse numérique; Sciences économiques; Modèle économétrique; Loi normale; Estimation erreur; Famille exponentielle; Loi exponentielle; Estimation moyenne; Variance; Répartition spatiale; Variable normale; Loi gamma; Loi bêta; Ajustement modèle; Estimation Bayes; Chaîne Markov; Méthode Monte Carlo; Algorithme; Distribution échantillonnage; Loi conjointe; Loi a posteriori; Modèle linéaire généralisé; Econométrie; 62J10; 62E10; 62E17; 60J10; 65C40; 65C05; Analyse bayésienne; 62P20; Distribution spatiale ED : Statistical method; Numerical simulation; Statistical regression; Variance analysis; Covariance analysis; Statistical distribution; Approximation theory; Stochastic method; Numerical analysis; Economic sciences; Econometric model; Gaussian distribution; Error estimation; Exponential family; Exponential distribution; Mean estimation; Variance; Spatial distribution; Normal variable; Gamma distribution; Beta distribution; Model matching; Bayes estimation; Markov chain; Monte Carlo method; Algorithm; Sampling distribution; Joint distribution; Posterior distribution; Generalized linear model; Econometrics; Spatial distribution SD : Método estadístico; Simulación numérica; Regresión estadística; Análisis variancia; Análisis covariancia; Distribución estadística; Método estocástico; Análisis numérico; Ciencias económicas; Modelo econométrico; Curva Gauss; Estimación error; Familia exponencial; Ley exponencial; Estimación promedio; Variancia; Distribución espacial; Variable normal; Ley gama; Ley beta; Ajustamiento modelo; Estimación Bayes; Cadena Markov; Método Monte Carlo; Algoritmo; Distribución muestreo; Ley conjunta; Ley a posteriori; Modelo lineal generalizado; Econometría LO : INIST-16531B.354000506719660300 127/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0063783 INIST ET : Vehicle-Type Dependent Car-Following Model for Heterogeneous Traffic Conditions AU : RAVISHANKAR (K. V. R.); MATHEW (Tom V.) AF : Research Scholar, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400 076/Inde (1 aut.); Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400 076/Inde (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 137; No. 11; Pp. 775-781; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Car-following behavior forms the kernel of traffic microsimulation models and is extensively studied for similar vehicle types. However, in heterogeneous traffic having a diverse mix of vehicles, following behavior also depends on the type of both the leader and following vehicles. This paper is an attempt to modify the widely used Gipps's car-following model to incorporate vehicle-type dependent parameters. Performance of the model is studied at microscopic and macroscopic levels using data collected from both homogeneous and heterogeneous traffic conditions. The results indicate that the proposed modifications enhance the prediction of follower behavior and suggest the need of incorporating vehicle-type combination specific parameters into traffic simulation models. CC : 001D15C; 001D15A FD : Trafic routier; Modélisation; Type véhicule; Comportement; Conducteur véhicule; Modèle simulation; Collecte donnée; Suivi de véhicule; Modèle macroscopique ED : Road traffic; Modeling; Vehicle type; Behavior; Vehicle driver; Simulation model; Data gathering; Car following; Macroscopic model SD : Tráfico carretera; Modelización; Tipo vehículo; Conducta; Conductor vehículo; Modelo simulación; Recolección dato; Modelo macroscópico LO : INIST-572E.354000508613690040 128/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0061960 INIST ET : Residential mobility microsimulation models AU : YIFEI WANG; LUN WU; TONG (Qingxi); GU (Xingfa); ZHU (Boqin) AF : Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System, Peking University/Beijing 100871/Chine (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Proceedings of SPIE, the International Society for Optical Engineering; ISSN 0277-786X; Coden PSISDG; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 8203; 82031H.1-82031H.7; Bibl. 47 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Residential mobility refers to the spatial movement of individuals and households between dwellings within an urban area. This considerable amount of intra-urban movement affects the urban structure and has significant repercussions for urban transportation. In order to understand and project related impacts, a considerable number of residential mobility models has been developed and used in the regional planning process. Within this context, the history and state-of-art residential mobility models are discussed and indicated. Meanwhile, a residential mobility Microsimulation model, called URM-Microsim (Urban Residential Mobility Microsimulation), is introduced and discussed. CC : 001B00A30C; 001B40B79Q; 001B40B68W FD : Télédétection; Optique atmosphérique; 0130C; 4279Q; 4268W ED : Remote sensing; Atmospheric optics LO : INIST-21760.354000174758160520 129/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0055589 INIST ET : Modeling Travelers' Responses to Incident Information Provided by Variable Message Signs in Calgary, Canada AU : KATTAN (Lina); NURUL HABIB (Khandker M.); NADEEM (Shahid); ISLAM (Tazul) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, Schulich School of Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW/Calgary, Alberta T2N 1 N4/Canada (1 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.); Habib and T. Islam, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta/Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2W2/Canada (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; No. 2185; Pp. 71-80; Bibl. 25 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper presents an investigation of drivers' response behaviors to intelligent transportation systems. It describes the results of a detailed survey and the results of an econometric model of route diversion behavior in response to real-time information provided by variable message signs (VMSs). The study location was Deerfoot Trail in Calgary, Canada. In case of major delays because of accidents on Deerfoot Trail, the City of Calgary uses 12 VMSs along Deerfoot Trail to divert drivers to alternative parallel arterials. A survey of 500 Deerfoot Trail commuters was conducted to examine the factors affecting drivers' compliance with VMSs. A latent discrete choice model was developed to model the responses of drivers to VMSs. This model introduces behavioral variables within a discrete choice model by endogenously estimating the latent variables. The primary finding of the study is that the en route information provided by VMSs convinces few drivers to change their trip destinations. Of the 500 respondents, 63.3% of drivers alter their trip plans in light of the information provided. However, 36.7% of drivers experience inertia by not altering their route, despite the excessive delays because of route blockage. The empirical model shows that driving experience, familiarity with alternative routes, trip purpose, trip time, trip length, and complementary information sources (e.g., the radio) are the most important factors influencing route-switching behavior in response to VMSs. In addition, drivers' attitudes toward VMSs were found to have the most significant impact on their responses to these systems. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Panneau indicateur; Panneau message variable; Modélisation; Canada; Comportement; Conducteur véhicule; Système intelligent; Système information; Collecte donnée; Modèle économétrique; Modèle empirique; Réponse; Recommandation FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Sign post; Variable message sign post; Modeling; Canada; Behavior; Vehicle driver; Intelligent system; Information system; Data gathering; Econometric model; Empirical model; Response; Recommendation EG : North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Panel indicador; Panel indicador mensaje variable; Modelización; Canadá; Conducta; Conductor vehículo; Sistema inteligente; Sistema información; Recolección dato; Modelo econométrico; Modelo empírico; Respuesta; Recomendación LO : INIST-10459B.354000192106410100 130/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0055371 INIST ET : Simulation Model for Studying Impact of Vehicle-to-Vehicle Wireless Communications on Traffic Network Operations AU : BING MEI; HYEJUNG HU; ROUPHAIL (Nagui M.); LEE (Jae-Joon) AF : Institute of Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State University/Raleigh, NC 27695-8601/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); Department of Advanced Transportation Research, Korea Transport Institute, 2311, Daehwa-dong Ilsanseo-gu, Goyang-si Gyeonggi-do/Goyang, 411-701/Corée, République de (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; No. 2189; Pp. 107-115; Bibl. 29 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper describes the design and implementation of a simulation code supplement to a commercial microsimulation system that makes efficient use of traffic information data that can be disseminated via wireless vehicular ad hoc networks. The transmitted information elicits timely responses to driver behavior for speed or path changes in a realistic way. A simulation model developed by following the prescribed design was used in a case study application to simulate vehicle dynamic route diversion and variable speed limits following a severe incident in a small network. Simulation results indicate that the model results are sensitive both to different market penetration levels of vehicles equipped with wireless communications capabilities and to various control strategies, which therefore gives credibility to the utility of the system design. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Modèle simulation; Réseau communication; Véhicule routier; Télécommunication sans fil; Etude impact; Modélisation; Etude expérimentale; Evaluation performance ED : Road traffic; Simulation model; Communication network; Road vehicle; Wireless telecommunication; Impact study; Modeling; Experimental study; Performance evaluation SD : Tráfico carretera; Modelo simulación; Red de comunicación; Vehículo caminero; Telecomunicación sin hilo; Estudio impacto; Modelización; Estudio experimental; Evaluación prestación LO : INIST-10459B.354000192106820120 131/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0053588 INIST ET : The impact of back problems on retirement wealth AU : SCHOFIELD (Deborah); KELLY (Simon); SHRESTHA (Rupendra); CALLANDER (Emily); PASSEY (Megan); PERCIVAL (Richard) AF : NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre and Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney/Sydney/Australie (1 aut., 4 aut.); National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM), University of Canberra/Canberra/Australie (2 aut., 6 aut.); NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney/Sydney/Australie (3 aut.); University Centre for Rural Health - North Coast, Department of Rural Health, Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney/Sydney/Australie (5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Papier de recherche; Niveau analytique SO : Pain : (Amsterdam); ISSN 0304-3959; Coden PAINDB; Pays-Bas; Da. 2012; Vol. 153; No. 1; Pp. 203-210; Bibl. 51 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This study undertook an economic analysis of the costs of early retirement due to back problems, with the aim of quantifying how much lower the value of accumulated wealth of individuals who exit the workforce early due to back problems is by the time they reach the traditional retirement age of 65 years - compared to those who remained in the workforce. This was done using the output dataset of the microsimulation model Health&WealthMOD. It was found that over 99% of individuals who are employed full time will have accumulated some wealth at age 65 years, whereas as little as 74% of those who are out of the labour force due to back problems will have done so. Those who retire from the labour force early due to back problems will have a median value of total accumulated wealth by the time they are 65 of as little as $3708 (for women aged 55-64 years). This is far lower than the median value of accumulated wealth for those women aged 55-64 years who remained in the labour force full time, who will have $214,432 of accumulated wealth at age 65 years. Not only will early retirement due to back problems limit the immediate income available to individuals, but it will also reduce their long-term financial capacity by reducing their wealth accumulation. Maintaining the labour force participation of those with back problems, or preventing the onset of the disease, should be a priority in order to maintain living standards comparable with others who do not suffer from this condition. CC : 002A26J02; 002B16F FD : Analyse coût; Modèle; Force; Long terme; Homme ED : Cost analysis; Models; Force; Long term; Human SD : Análisis costo; Modelo; Fuerza; Largo plazo; Hombre LO : INIST-17241.354000506069050290 132/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0051113 INIST ET : Scenarios for the implementation of EU waste legislation at national level and their consequences for emissions from municipal waste incineration AU : SANER (Dominik); BLUMER (Yann B.); LANG (Daniel J.); KOEHLER (Annette) AF : Group for Ecological Systems Design. Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Schafmattstrasse 6/8093 Zurich/Suisse (1 aut., 4 aut.); Natural and Social Science Interface, Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Universitdtsstrasse 22/8092 Zurich/Suisse (2 aut., 3 aut.); Institute of Ethics and Transdisciplinary Sustainability Research, Leuphana University of Lüneburg, Scilarnhorststra&bgr;e 1/21335 Lüneburg/Allemagne (3 aut.); PE INTERNATIONAL AG,Jägerstrasse 2/8406 Winterthur/Suisse (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Resources, conservation and recycling; ISSN 0921-3449; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2011; Vol. 57; No. déc; Pp. 67-77; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Incineration plays a significant role in modern municipal solid waste (MSW) management of European countries. There are 405 treatment facilities in the European Union (EU) and another 43 plants are planned to be built in the coming years. The number of municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) plants is not only increasing due to rising waste amounts but also as a consequence of EU waste-concerned directives issued over the last two decades.This study analyses the potential influence of diverse national implementations of EU waste policies on the future emission loads to air from MSWI in different European countries. This is exemplified by constructing waste policy implementation scenarios using an adapted formative scenario analysis approach, coupled with a probabilistic MSWI emission model employing microsimulation, which enables us to model changing incinerated waste amounts and waste compositions for each country over time. This allows us to describe possible future emission levels of MSWI in the year 2020 in 33 European countries, and in detail for Switzerland, Poland and the United Kingdom. Uncertain future emission levels are calculated and compared with the emission levels determined by the scenarios' implications. We find that, depending on the scenario selected, in countries with currently small MSWI sectors like Poland median pollutant emission loads can change by a factor of between 1.4 and 336 for greenhouse gases (GHG) and 1.8 and 561 for ammonia (NH3) compared to the reference state. For countries like the United Kingdom, with a current 9.7% share of MSWI in their waste management, this factor would be in the range of 1.3 and 7.3 for GHG and 1.3 and 9.7 for NH3. Our results suggest that these variations are not primarily the results of the EU policy framework, but are mainly caused by the way these policies are implemented on the national level. However, comparing the emissions for Switzerland, a country with a high share of MSWI (50%), we do not find significant changes in the emission loads between the reference state and the future considering various scenarios and the uncertainty in the emission loads. CC : 001D16B03; 001D16B02; 001D16C01 FD : Législation; Emission polluant; Déchet urbain; Incinération; Déchet solide; Union européenne; Prévision pollution atmosphérique; Modélisation; Royaume-Uni; Gaz effet serre; Ammoniac; Gestion déchet; Incertitude; Pollution air; Traitement thermique FG : Europe ED : Legislation; Pollutant emission; Urban waste; Incineration; Solid waste; European Union; Atmospheric pollution forecasting; Modeling; United Kingdom; Greenhouse gas; Ammonia; Waste management; Uncertainty; Air pollution; Heat treatment EG : Europe SD : Legislación; Emisión contaminante; Desperdicio urbano; Incineración; Residuos sólidos; Unión Europea; Previsión contaminación del ambiente; Modelización; Reino Unido; Gas efecto invernadero; Amoníaco; Tratamiento desperdicios; Incertidumbre; Contaminación aire; Tratamiento térmico LO : INIST-16839.354000506065410090 133/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0045894 INIST ET : Fecal Occult Blood Testing When Colonoscopy Capacity is Limited AU : WILSCHUT (Janneke A.); HABBEMA (J. Dik F.); VAN LEERDAM (Monique E.); HOL (Lieke); LANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris); KUIPERS (Ernst J.); VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 5 aut., 7 aut.); Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (3 aut., 4 aut., 6 aut.); Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of the National Cancer Institute; ISSN 0027-8874; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 103; No. 23; Pp. 1741-1751; Bibl. 43 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background Fecal occult blood testing (FOBT) can be adapted to a limited colonoscopy capacity by narrowing the age range or extending the screening interval, by using a more specific test or hemoglobin cutoff level for referral to colonoscopy, and by restricting surveillance colonoscopy. Which of these options is most clinically effective and cost-effective has yet to be established. Methods We used the validated MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model to estimate the number of colonoscopies, costs, and health effects of different screening strategies using guaiac FOBT or fecal immunochemical test (FIT) at various hemoglobin cutoff levels between 50 and 200 ng hemoglobin per mL, different surveillance strategies, and various age ranges. We optimized the allocation of a limited number of colonoscopies on the basis of incremental cost-effectiveness. Results When colonoscopy capacity was unlimited, the optimal screening strategy was to administer an annual FIT with a 50 ng/mL hemoglobin cutoff level in individuals aged 45-80 years and to offer colonoscopy surveillance to all individuals with adenomas. When colonoscopy capacity was decreasing, the optimal screening adaptation was to first increase the FIT hemoglobin cutoff value to 200 ng hemoglobin per mL and narrow the age range to 50-75 years, to restrict colonoscopy surveillance, and finally to further decrease the number of screening rounds. FIT screening was always more cost-effective compared with guaiac FOBT. Doubling colonoscopy capacity increased the benefits of FIT screening up to 100%. Conclusions FIT should be used at higher hemoglobin cutoff levels when colonoscopy capacity is limited compared with unlimited and is more effective in terms of health outcomes and cost compared with guaiac FOBT at all colonoscopy capacity levels. Increasing the colonoscopy capacity substantially increases the health benefits of FIT screening. CC : 002B04; 002B13B01 FD : Colonoscopie; Fèces; Sang; Dépistage; Cancérologie; Cancer colorectal; Homme FG : Pathologie de l'appareil digestif; Pathologie de l'intestin; Pathologie du côlon; Pathologie du rectum; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Endoscopie; Santé publique ED : Colonoscopy; Feces; Blood; Medical screening; Cancerology; Colorectal cancer; Human EG : Digestive diseases; Intestinal disease; Colonic disease; Rectal disease; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Endoscopy; Public health SD : Colonoscopía; Heces; Sangre; Descubrimiento; Cancerología; Cancer de colon y recto; Hombre LO : INIST-3364.354000507399870040 134/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0042686 INIST ET : Estimating arterial link speed using conventional road detectors AU : LIMANOND (Thirayoot); TUNTIWORAWIT (Nrachai) AF : Department of Transportation Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, 111 University Avenue, Suranaree Sub-district/Nakornratchasima 30000/Thaïlande (1 aut.); Planpro Co Ltd 335 Bangkruay-Sainoi Road, T. Bangrak Pattana, Bang Bua Thong/Nonthaburi 11000/Thaïlande (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation planning and technology : (Print); ISSN 0308-1060; Coden TPLTAK; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2011; Vol. 34; No. 3; Pp. 231-243; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : In response to an initiative to develop an advanced traffic information system in Bangkok, this paper explores practical guidelines for the optimal location of road sensors, such that the data collected on spot speeds reflect an entire link's average speed. In particular, the authors use microsimulation software to investigate optimal detector locations, using the sum of squared errors and root mean squared errors. The analysis hypothesizes that road segments are 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 km in length and are specially designed to replicate typical arterial streets in Bangkok. The results show that a single detector location can produce good estimates of link speed only for segments that are shorter than 1.0 km. For distances of 1.0 km or more, the results suggest that two detectors be used for good link speed estimates under all traffic conditions. CC : 001D15C; 001D15A FD : Trafic routier; Système information; Technologie avancée; Détecteur; Capteur mesure; Vitesse déplacement; Réseau routier; Localisation; Outil logiciel; Simulation; Etude comparative; Congestion trafic ED : Road traffic; Information system; Advanced technology; Detector; Measurement sensor; Speed; Road network; Localization; Software tool; Simulation; Comparative study; Traffic congestion SD : Tráfico carretera; Sistema información; Tecnología avanzada; Detector; Captador medida; Velocidad desplazamiento; Red carretera; Localización; Herramienta software; Simulación; Estudio comparativo; Congestión tráfico LO : INIST-15632.354000189776950030 135/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0027080 INIST ET : Cost Effectiveness of Denosumab Compared with Oral Bisphosphonates in the Treatment of Post-Menopausal Osteoporotic Women in Belgium AU : HILIGSMANN (Mickaël); REGINSTER (Jean-Yves) AF : Pharmacoeconomics Research Unit, University of Liege/Liege/Belgique (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : PharmacoEconomics : (Auckland); ISSN 1170-7690; Nouvelle-Zélande; Da. 2011; Vol. 29; No. 10; Pp. 895-911; Bibl. 81 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: Denosumab has recently been shown to be well tolerated, to increase bone mineral density (BMD) and to significantly reduce the risk of hip, vertebral and non-vertebral fractures in the FREEDOM (Fracture REduction Evaluation of Denosumab in Osteoporosis every 6 Months) trial. It is becoming increasingly important to evaluate not only the therapeutic value of a new drug but also the cost effectiveness compared with the most relevant treatment alternatives. Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the cost effectiveness of denosumab compared with oral bisphosphonates (branded and generic drugs) in the treatment of post-menopausal osteoporotic women in Belgium. Methods: Cost effectiveness of 3 years of treatment with denosumab was compared with branded risedronate and branded and generic alendronate using an updated version of a previously validated Markov microsimulation model. The model was populated with relevant cost, adherence and epidemiological data for Belgium from a payer perspective and the results were presented as costs per QALY gained (<euro sign>, year 2009 values). Analyses were performed in populations (aged ≥60 years) in which osteoporosis medications are currently reimbursed in many European countries, i.e. those with BMD T-score of -2.5 or less or prevalent vertebral fracture. Patients receiving denosumab were assumed to have a 46% lower risk of discontinuation than those receiving oral bisphosphonates, and the effect of denosumab after treatment cessation was assumed to decline linearly to zero over a maximum of 1 year. Results: Denosumab was cost effective compared with all other therapies, assuming a willingness to pay of <euro sign>40 000 per QALY gained. In particular, denosumab was found to be cost effective compared with branded alendronate and risedronate at a threshold value of <euro sign>30 000 per QALY and denosumab was dominant (i.e. lower cost and greater effectiveness) compared with risedronate from the age of 70 years in women with a T-score of -2.5 or less and no prior fractures. The cost effectiveness of denosumab compared with generic alendronate was estimated at <euro sign>38 514, <euro sign>22 220 and <euro sign>27 862 per QALY for women aged 60, 70 and 80 years, respectively, with T-scores of -2.5 or less. The equivalent values were <euro sign>37 167, <euro sign>19 718 and <euro sign>19 638 per QALY for women with prevalent vertebral fractures. Conclusion: This study suggests, on the basis of currently available data, that denosumab is a cost-effective strategy compared with oral bisphosphonates (including generic alendronate) for the treatment of post-menopausal osteoporotic women, aged ≥60 years in Belgium. Denosumab therefore appears to have the potential to become a first-line treatment for post-menopausal women with osteoporosis. However, further studies would be required to evaluate the long-term safety and adherence of denosumab in real-world clinical practice as well as head-to-head effectiveness compared with oral bisphosphonates. CC : 002B02L; 002B30A03B; 002B20H; 002B15A FD : Economie santé; Analyse coût efficacité; Dénosumab; Etude comparative; Voie orale; Bisphosphonates; Traitement; Ménopause; Ostéoporose; Homme; Femelle; Femme; Adulte; Belgique; Santé publique; Immunomodulateur; Antiostéoporotique FG : Europe; Anticorps monoclonal; Pathologie du système ostéoarticulaire ED : Health economy; Cost efficiency analysis; Denosumab; Comparative study; Oral administration; Bisphosphonates; Treatment; Menopause; Osteoporosis; Human; Female; Woman; Adult; Belgium; Public health; Immunomodulator; Antiosteoporotic EG : Europe; Monoclonal antibody; Diseases of the osteoarticular system SD : Economía salud; Análisis costo eficacia; Denosumab; Estudio comparativo; Vía oral; Bisfosfonatos; Tratamiento; Menopausia; Osteoporosis; Hombre; Hembra; Mujer; Adulto; Belgica; Salud pública; Inmunomodulador; Antiosteoporótico LO : INIST-26124.354000507381610070 136/793 NO : PASCAL 12-0000323 BDSP FT : Prévenir la pauvreté chez les travailleurs belges AU : MARX (I.); VERBIST (G.); VANHILLE (J.); et al. AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : REVUE BELGE DE SECURITE SOCIALE; Belgique; Da. 2011; No. 1; Pp. 3-46; tabl., graph. LA : Français FA : Au cours de ces dernières années, l'on est devenu de plus en plus conscient que la pauvreté financière était également présente chez les travailleurs, y compris chez certains travailleurs à temps plein et qui, dès lors, s'engagent au maximum pour acquérir une indépendance financière. En Belgique, environ une personne sur cinq d'âge actif subissant une situation de précarité financière a un emploi. Il existe également un chevauchement important avec la pauvreté enfantine - en effet, environ 60% des enfants qui grandissent dans un milieu frappé de pauvreté financière vivent dans un ménage ayant au moins un gagne-pain. Ceci va à l'encontre des notions largement admises de justice sociale. Cet article commence par esquisser succinctement la problématique des travailleurs pauvres en Belgique, et ceci tout particulièrement en fonction d'une conceptualisation politique adéquate. Ensuite, il passe systématiquement en revue un certain nombre d'options politiques mises en oeuvre en Belgique et à l'étranger pour juguler la pauvreté. A cette occasion, il recourt à la technique de microsimulation pour obtenir une indication de l'éventuel impact sur la pauvreté CC : 002B30A11 FD : Pauvreté; Employé; Prévention; Seuil; Population active; Salaire; Minimum; Revenu individuel; Enfant; Charges sociales; Crédit; Impôt; Définition; Etude impact; Evaluation; Modèle économétrique; Simulation; Donnée statistique; Etude comparative; Belgique; Pays industrialisé; Etats-Unis; Royaume-Uni FG : Homme; Europe; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Poverty; Employee; Prevention; Threshold; Labour force; Wage; Minimum; Personal income; Child; Social charges; Credit; Levy; Definition; Impact study; Evaluation; Econometric model; Simulation; Statistical data; Comparative study; Belgium; Industrialized country; United States; United Kingdom EG : Human; Europe; North America; America SD : Pobreza; Empleado; Prevención; Umbral; Población activa; Salario; Mínimo; Renta personal; Niño; Cargas sociales; Crédito; Impuesto; Definición; Estudio impacto; Evaluación; Modelo econométrico; Simulación; Dato estadístico; Estudio comparativo; Belgica; País industrializado; Estados Unidos; Reino Unido LO : BDSP/IRDES 137/793 NO : FRANCIS 25992056 PRODIG-INTERGEO ET : Modeling social networks in geographic space : approach and empirical application AU : ARENTZE (T.); VAN DEN BERG (P.); TIMMERMANS (H.); DUGUNDJI (E.); SCOTT (D.M.); CARRASCO (J.A.); PÁEZ (A.) AF : Urban Planning Group, Univ. of Technology/Eindhoven/Pays-Bas DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Environment & planning A (Print); ISSN 0308-518X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2012; Vol. 44; No. 5; Pp. 1101-1120; Bibl. 3 p.; 2 fig., 11 tabl. LA : Anglais FA : Les AA. proposent un modèle de prévision de formation d’amitié entre deux personnes au sein d’une population déterminée. A partir de l’exemple de la ville d’Eindhoven, ils étudient les réseaux sociaux d’un échantillon basé sur les similarités de leurs attributs, la distance géographique et les préférences de base. Ils concluent qu’un tel travail synthétique peut être utilisé pour faire une microsimulation des interactions sociales dans un espace géographique donné CC : 531104; 531 FD : Pays-Bas; Noord-Brabant; Eindhoven; Géographie sociale; Réseau; Réseau de sociabilité; Interaction sociale; Amitié; Modélisation; Distance; Echantillonnage ED : Netherlands (The); Noord Brabant; Social geography; Network; Social network; Social interaction; Modelling; Distance; Sampling SD : Países Bajos; Brabante septentrional; Geografía social; Red; Red de sociabilidad; Interaccíon social; Modelización; Distancia; Selección dela muestra LO : INIST-15583 A 138/793 NO : FRANCIS 12-0433501 INIST FT : Projeter l'impact des réformes des retraites sur l'activité des 55 ans et plus: une comparaison de trois modèles ET : (Projecting the Impact of Pension Reforms on the Activity Rate of Persons Aged 55+: A Comparison of Three Models) AU : BACHELET (Marion); BEFFY (Magali); BLANCHET (Didier); AUBERT (Patrick); BLANCHET (Didier) AF : division Redistribution et Politiques Sociales de l'Insee/France (1 aut.); division Redistribution et Politiques Sociales de l'Insee/France (2 aut.); département des Études Économiques d'Ensemble de l'Insee/France (3 aut.); Bureau Retraites, Drees/France (1 aut.); Département des Études Économiques d'Ensemble, Insee/France (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Economie et statistique : (Ed. française); ISSN 0336-1454; France; Da. 2011; No. 441-442; 123-143, 226, 230, 233, 237 [25 p.]; Abs. anglais/allemand/espagnol; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Français FA : La projection des taux d'activité aux âges élevés constitue une étape importante dans l'élaboration des perspectives financières des systèmes de retraite. Elle fait donc l'objet d'une attention particulière lors de la construction des projections de population active régulièrement conduites par l'Insee. Cette projection impose de prendre en compte la diversité des situations individuelles car l'impact des réformes des retraites sur les comportements est a priori très variable d'un cas à l'autre. Par exemple, le relèvement à 62 ans de l'âge minimum de liquidation prévu par la réforme de 2010 sera neutre pour les individus qui, même sans réforme, seraient déjà partis à cet âge ou après cet âge. Il sera contraignant pour les autres, mais l'impact sur l'activité dépendra du statut avant la liquidation: repousser l'âge de liquidation des individus déjà sortis du marché du travail n'a pas d'effet sur l'activité, tant du moins qu'il n'y a pas de modification des comportements en amont de l'âge de la retraite. Simuler ces trajectoires individuelles soulève néanmoins des problèmes considérables, auxquels les modèles n'apportent que des réponses imparfaites et incertaines. Ceci plaide pour des projections scénarisées confrontant différentes hypothèses de comportement. On présente ici les résultats obtenus sur la base de trois options proposées par le modèle de microsimulation Destinie 2 de l'Insee. Selon l'hypothèse choisie, les effets cumulés des réformes adoptées de 1993 à 2010 sur le taux d'activité entre 60 et 64 ans varient, à long terme, de 10 à 40 points de pourcentage, mais par rapport à des évolutions hors réformes également variables d'un scénario à l'autre. Au total, sans autre réforme, le taux d'activité des 60-64 ans en 2050 serait compris entre 40 et 50 % et correspondrait à des âges moyens de liquidation variant entre 64 et 65 ans, et à des âges moyens de sortie d'emploi variant entre 61 et 63 ans, selon la façon dont la réforme des retraites rétroagirait sur les trajectoires de fin de carrière. CC : 52150; 52142A; 52133A; 521 FD : Activité professionnelle; Personnes âgées; France; Age de la retraite; Population active; Retraités; Régime de retraite; Secteur privé; Secteur public; Taux d'activité; Réforme des retraites; Système de retraite; Destinie 2; Modèle de Stock et Wise; Surcote; Pension de retraite; Hypothèse ED : Occupational activity; Elderly; France; Retirement age; Working Population; Pensioners; Retirement Plan; Private Entreprise; State Entreprise; Activity rate LO : INIST-24228.354000505539580060 139/793 NO : FRANCIS 12-0433500 INIST FT : Le modèle de microsimulation Destinie 2: principales caractéristiques et premiers résultats : Les systèmes de retraite et leurs réformes: Evaluations et projections ET : (DESTINIE 2 Microsimulation Model: Main Characteristics and Initial Results) AU : BLANCHET (Didier); BUFFETEAU (Sophie); CRENNER (Emmanuelle); LE MINEZ (Sylvie); AUBERT (Patrick); BLANCHET (Didier) AF : Département des Études Économiques d'Ensemble de l'Insee/France (1 aut.); Division redistribution et politiques sociales/France (2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.); Bureau Retraites, Drees/France (1 aut.); Département des Études Économiques d'Ensemble, Insee/France (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Economie et statistique : (Ed. française); ISSN 0336-1454; France; Da. 2011; No. 441-442; 101-121, 226, 230, 233, 237 [25 p.]; Abs. anglais/allemand/espagnol; Bibl. 1 p.1/2 LA : Français FA : Le modèle Destinie est un modèle de microsimulation dynamique qui a été développé et utilisé à l'Insee depuis le milieu des années 1990 et dont les principales applications concernent la retraite. Une nouvelle version de ce modèle a été mise en chantier à partir de 2005 et cet article en présente les principales caractéristiques. L'objectif de sa rénovation a été de disposer d'un outil plus flexible. La nouvelle version est constituée de deux blocs séparés: un générateur de biographies démographiques et professionnelles, dont on a renforcé la cohérence avec les projections démographiques et de population active, et un simulateur de droits à retraite permettant la construction de projections de retraite sur mesure, sur la base des biographies issues de la première étape. Quelques exemples de simulations servent à illustrer les possibilités du nouveau modèle. L'un de ses avantages est de permettre des calculs de droits au niveau des ménages. Le modèle montre par exemple que le niveau de vie relatif des retraités se stabiliserait à l'horizon 2050 entre 70 % et 75 % de celui des actifs, hors revenus du patrimoine et hors loyers imputés. CC : 52142A; 52150; 521 FD : Retraite; Vieillissement; Régime de retraite; Evolution démographique; Age de la retraite; Destinie 2; Trajectoire professionnelle; Générateur de biographies; Trajectoire démographique; Pension de retraite; Réforme des retraites ED : Retirement; Aging; Retirement Plan; Demographic evolution; Retirement age LO : INIST-24228.354000505539580050 140/793 NO : FRANCIS 12-0233464 INIST FT : Évaluation de l'impact des changements épidémiologiques sur la dépense de santé en France pour 2025: approche par microsimulation ET : (Assessing the impact of epidemiological changes on health care expenditures in France for 2025: a micro-simulation approach) AU : THIEBAUT (Sophie); VENTELOU (Bruno) AF : CNRS GREQAM, INSERM U912 et IDEP, 23, rue Stanislas-Torrents/13006 Marseille/France (1 aut.); CNRS GREQAM, INSERM U912, IDEP et ORS PACA, 23, rue Stanislas-Torrents/13006 Marseille/France (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Sciences sociales et santé; ISSN 0294-0337; France; Da. 2011; Vol. 29; No. 1; Pp. 35-68; Abs. anglais/espagnol; Bibl. 3 p.1/2 LA : Français FA : Nous proposons une méthode de prédiction de l'évolution des dépenses de santé ambulatoires (i.e. non hospitalières) sous l'effet du vieillissement de la population française à l'horizon 2025. Le modèle intègre deux indicateurs d'états de santé sur lesquels chaque agent de la base de données pourra transiter, par microsimulation, créant ainsi une dynamique épidémiologique individuelle entre bonne et mauvaise santé. À l'aide d'un modèle économétrique de consommation de biens et services de santé, nous déduisons la dépense française en santé en 2025 par agrégation de la population représentative vieillie en 2025. Le support choisi pour la première application de l'outil est la base de données ESPS 2000 de l'IRDES appariée avec l'Échantillon permanent d'assurés sociaux (EPAS). Le thème traité est l'impact de changements épidémiologiques sur le montant des dépenses ambulatoires. Ces simulations ont été réalisées pour trois scénarios épidémiologiques: scénario à dynamique épidémiologique constante, vieillissement en bonne santé et vieillissement en bonne santé + progrès médical (sans prise en compte des effets prix). CC : 52163; 521 FD : Santé publique; Système de santé; Soin à domicile; Dépense; Simulation; Modèle économétrique; France; Vieillissement; Epidémiologie; Indicateur; Base de données ED : Public Health; Health system; Home care; Expenditures; Simulation; Econometric Model; France; Aging; Epidemiology LO : INIST-20770.354000193734800030 141/793 NO : FRANCIS 12-0200625 INIST ET : Generating small-area prevalence of psychological distress and alcohol consumption: validation of a spatial microsimulation method AU : RIVA (Mylène); SMITH (Dianna M.) AF : Department of Geography, Institute of Hazards, Risk and Resilience, Durham University, Science Laboratories, South Road/Durham DH1 3LE/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.); School of Geography, Queen Mary, University of London, Mile End Road/London E1 4NS/Royaume-Uni (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology : (Print); ISSN 0933-7954; Coden SPPEEM; Allemagne; Da. 2012; Vol. 47; No. 5; Pp. 745-755; Bibl. 42 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Purpose Public mental health surveillance data are rarely available at a fine geographic scale. This study applies a spatial microsimulation procedure to generate small-area (Lower Super Outputs Areas [LSOA]) estimates of psychological distress and alcohol consumption. The validity of LSOA estimates and their associations with proximal and broader socioeconomic conditions are examined. Methods A deterministic reweighting methodology assigns prevalence estimates for psychological distress and heavy alcohol consumption through a process of matching individuals from a large, population-representative dataset (Health Survey for England) to known LSOA populations (from the 2001 population Census). 'Goodness-of-fit' of LSOA estimates is assessed by their comparison to observed prevalence of these health indicators at higher levels of aggregation (Local Authority Districts [LAD]). Population prevalence estimates are correlated to the Mental Health Needs Index (MINI) and other health indicators; ordered logistic regression is applied to investigate their associations with proximal and broader socioeconomic conditions. Results Performance of microsimulation models is high with no more than 10% errors in at least 90% of LAD for psychological distress and moderate and heavy alcohol consumption. The MINI is strongly correlated with psychological distress (r = 0.910; p value <0.001) and moderately with heavy drinking (r = 0.389; p value <0.001). Psychological distress and heavy alcohol consumption are differently associated with socioeconomic and rurality indicators at the LSOA level. Associations further vary at the LAD level and regional variations are apparent. Conclusion Spatial microsimulation may be an appropriate methodological approach for replicating social and demographic health patterns at the local level. CC : 770D08; 770D03N FD : Prévalence; Santé publique; Détresse psychologique; Boisson alcoolisée; Santé mentale; Angleterre; Homme FG : Grande Bretagne; Royaume-Uni; Europe; Epidémiologie ED : Prevalence; Public health; Psychological distress; Alcoholic beverage; Mental health; England; Human EG : Great Britain; United Kingdom; Europe; Epidemiology SD : Prevalencia; Salud pública; Desamparo psicológico; Bebida alcohólica; Salud mental; Inglaterra; Hombre LO : INIST-13204.354000506906020080 142/793 NO : FRANCIS 12-0053588 INIST ET : The impact of back problems on retirement wealth AU : SCHOFIELD (Deborah); KELLY (Simon); SHRESTHA (Rupendra); CALLANDER (Emily); PASSEY (Megan); PERCIVAL (Richard) AF : NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre and Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney/Sydney/Australie (1 aut., 4 aut.); National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM), University of Canberra/Canberra/Australie (2 aut., 6 aut.); NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney/Sydney/Australie (3 aut.); University Centre for Rural Health - North Coast, Department of Rural Health, Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney/Sydney/Australie (5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Papier de recherche; Niveau analytique SO : Pain : (Amsterdam); ISSN 0304-3959; Coden PAINDB; Pays-Bas; Da. 2012; Vol. 153; No. 1; Pp. 203-210; Bibl. 51 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This study undertook an economic analysis of the costs of early retirement due to back problems, with the aim of quantifying how much lower the value of accumulated wealth of individuals who exit the workforce early due to back problems is by the time they reach the traditional retirement age of 65 years - compared to those who remained in the workforce. This was done using the output dataset of the microsimulation model Health&WealthMOD. It was found that over 99% of individuals who are employed full time will have accumulated some wealth at age 65 years, whereas as little as 74% of those who are out of the labour force due to back problems will have done so. Those who retire from the labour force early due to back problems will have a median value of total accumulated wealth by the time they are 65 of as little as $3708 (for women aged 55-64 years). This is far lower than the median value of accumulated wealth for those women aged 55-64 years who remained in the labour force full time, who will have $214,432 of accumulated wealth at age 65 years. Not only will early retirement due to back problems limit the immediate income available to individuals, but it will also reduce their long-term financial capacity by reducing their wealth accumulation. Maintaining the labour force participation of those with back problems, or preventing the onset of the disease, should be a priority in order to maintain living standards comparable with others who do not suffer from this condition. CC : 770B10B FD : Analyse coût; Modèle; Force; Long terme; Homme ED : Cost analysis; Models; Force; Long term; Human SD : Análisis costo; Modelo; Fuerza; Largo plazo; Hombre LO : INIST-17241.354000506069050290 143/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0505217 INIST ET : A coupled multi-agent microsimulation of social interactions and transportation behavior AU : HACKNEY (Jeremy); MARCHAL (Fabrice); DUGUNDJI (Elenna R.); PAEZ (Antonio); ARENTZE (Theo A.); WALKER (Joan L.) AF : Institute for Transport Planning and Systems/ETH/Zürich/Suisse (1 aut.); CNRS, Lab of Transportation Economics (LET), Berthelot 14/69363 Lyon/France (2 aut.); Universiteit van Amsterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut.); McMaster University/Canada (2 aut.); Eindhoven University of Technology/Pays-Bas (3 aut.); UC Berkeley/Etats-Unis (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice; ISSN 0965-8564; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2011; Vol. 45; No. 4; Pp. 296-309; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Choice set formation, location and mode preferences, coordinated scheduling, alternative utility valuations, and shared mobility resources are among the many activity-travel issues hypothesized to be significantly influenced by traveler interdependencies. Empirical evidence lags theory, particularly about the geography of social networks. A simulation tool is presented to let the experimenter construct and test hypothetical interdependencies between geography, socially-linked travelers, and activity-travel choices. The exploratory tool is integrated in the Multi-Agent Transportation Simulation Toolbox (MatSim-T). Initially, any social network can be constructed and embedded in geography. It can remain static, or be adapted to the travel patterns of the agents. The interactions and exchanges between agents influencing socializing and/or travel behavior can be defined in substance and in time/space. The reward for socializing or being socially linked can be varied. Finally, the co-dependence of social factors and travel behavior can be studied. This paper introduces the model and presents verification results which illustrate the coupling of extremely simplified socializing assumptions and travel behavior. CC : 001D15A FD : Transports; Aspect social; Comportement; Modèle simulation; Interaction; Réseau social; Planification; Voyage; Scénario; Résultat expérimental ED : Transportation; Social aspect; Behavior; Simulation model; Interaction; Social network; Planning; Travel; Script; Experimental result SD : Transportes; Aspecto social; Conducta; Modelo simulación; Interacción; Red social; Planificación; Viaje; Argumento; Resultado experimental LO : INIST-12377A.354000192857670050 144/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0494130 BDSP FT : Le modèle ANCETRE : actualisation annuelle par calage pour l'estimation tous régimes des effectifs de retraités AU : AUBERT (Patrick); DUCOUDRE (Bruno) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau monographique SO : SERIE SOURCES ET METHODES - DOCUMENT DE TRAVAIL - DREES; France; Da. 2011-09; No. 24; ; Pp. 63 p. LA : Français FA : Le modèle ANCETRE est un modèle de microsimulation statique permettant de calculer des indicateurs annuels d'effectifs de retraités et de montant moyen de pension tous régimes confondus. Il est basé sur deux sources statistiques de la DREES : l'échantillon interrégimes de retraités (EIR) constitué tous les quatre ans, et les enquêtes annuelles auprès des caisses de retraite (EACR). Il consiste à créer des pseudo-EIR en clonant les individus de l'EIR et en répliquant la structure par âge de l'échantillon pour les années manquantes. Ce pseudo-EIR est ensuite pondéré en tenant compte des informations démographiques puis calé sur les données de l'EACR CC : 002B30A11 FD : Méthodologie; Echantillon; Retraite ED : Methodology; Sample; Retirement SD : Metodología; Muestra; Jubilación LO : BDSP/MIN-SANTE-BIB00055027 145/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0466586 INIST ET : Impact of Left-Turn Spillover on Through Movement Discharge at Signalized Intersections AU : OSEI-ASAMOAH (Abigail); KULSHRESTHA (Ashish); WASHBURN (Scott S.); YAFENG YIN AF : Department of Civil and Coastal Engineering, University of Florida/Gainesville, FL 32611-6580./Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; No. 2173; Pp. 80-88; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Anglais EA : While the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) 2000 does provide a separate procedure to estimate the back of queue for a lane group, its signalized intersection analysis procedure does not explicitly account for the impact to through movement traffic as a result of left-turn bay spillover. If the HCM methodology is used for an analysis of an intersection approach where left-turn spillover interferes with the discharge of through vehicles, the estimated delay results, and corresponding level of service, will be overly optimistic. Thus, the objective of this study was to determine the factors that significantly affect left-turn lane spillover and develop a model, or models, to predict the expected through movement capacity and discharge rate as a function of this spillover. Two approaches were used in this study: an analytical approach that developed a probability of left-turn spillover equation to incorporate into a capacity estimation equation, and an empirical approach incorporating the use of microsimulation to develop equations to estimate through movement discharge as a function of left-turn spillover. The developed probabilistic model was an enhancement to one from the literature. However, its accuracy of estimation was still limited due to the issue of intercycle queue-formation dependencies not being taken into account. The two models developed from regression analysis of simulation data-one for intersection approaches with only a single through lane and one for intersection approaches with multiple through lanes-replicate the simulation results quite reasonably. CC : 001D14O02; 001D15C; 295 FD : Réseau routier; Intersection; Trafic routier; Etude impact; Virage véhicule; Programme recherche; Modèle probabiliste; Ecoulement trafic; Application; Etude comparative; Résultat; Simulation; Recommandation; Feu signalisation ED : Road network; Intersection; Road traffic; Impact study; Vehicle turning; Research program; Probabilistic model; Traffic flow; Application; Comparative study; Result; Simulation; Recommendation; Traffic lights SD : Red carretera; Intersección; Tráfico carretera; Estudio impacto; Viraje vehículo; Programa investigación; Modelo probabilista; Flujo tráfico; Aplicación; Estudio comparativo; Resultado; Simulación; Recomendación; Semáforo LO : INIST-10459B.354000192105260100 146/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0466554 INIST ET : Estimating Sustained Service Rates at Signalized Intersections with Short Left-Turn Pockets: Mesoscopic Approach AU : REYNOLDS (William L.); XUESONG ZHOU; ROUPHAIL (Nagui M.); MINGXIN LI AF : Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State University, Centennial Campus, Box 8601,/Raleigh, NC 27695-8601/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 3 aut.); CME210/Inconnu (2 aut.); CME, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, 122 South Central Campus Drive/Salt Lake City, UT 84112-0561/Etats-Unis (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; No. 2173; Pp. 64-71; Bibl. 18 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A computational approach for incorporating the effects of short left-turn pockets on sustained service rates in a mesoscopic modeling environment is presented. Mesoscopic models, intended to handle fairly large networks while maintaining individual vehicle identity, provide a detailed yet efficient alternative to estimate sustained service rates. However, mesoscopic models typically ignore midlink perturbations and queuing, thus limiting their reliability in the presence of short left-turn pockets at signalized intersections. The model presented here relies on a gating mechanism situated at the entry point to the left-turn pocket. Through a series of logical triggers, the gating mechanism allows for the formation of a (vertical) queue of vehicles upstream of the pocket when arrivals exceed storage capacity. The method satisfies all assumed requirements for integrating the effects of short left-turn bays, which include pocket spillback, pocket starvation, and sensitivity to signal timing and phase sequence. The approach has been implemented within the mesoscopic modeling platform DYNASMART for both single and multiple left-turn pockets, with the use of varying pocket lengths and demand volumes. The resulting sustained service rates favorably compare to those generated by a representative microsimulation model (VISSIM). Further comparisons of the proposed approach against empirical observations are planned. CC : 001D14O02; 001D15C; 295 FD : Réseau routier; Intersection; Ecoulement trafic; Modélisation; Virage véhicule; Mésoéchelle; Exigence; Méthodologie; Modèle simulation; Algorithme; Etude comparative; Résultat expérimental; Sensibilité; Trafic routier ED : Road network; Intersection; Traffic flow; Modeling; Vehicle turning; Mesoscale; Requirement; Methodology; Simulation model; Algorithm; Comparative study; Experimental result; Sensitivity; Road traffic SD : Red carretera; Intersección; Flujo tráfico; Modelización; Viraje vehículo; Mesoescala; Exigencia; Metodología; Modelo simulación; Algoritmo; Estudio comparativo; Resultado experimental; Sensibilidad; Tráfico carretera LO : INIST-10459B.354000192105260080 147/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0462275 INIST ET : Small area estimation using a reweighting algorithm AU : TANTON (Robert); VIDYATTAMA (Yogi); NEPAL (Binod); MCNAMARA (Justine) AF : University of Canberra/Australie (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A. Statistics in society : (Print); ISSN 0964-1998; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2011; Vol. 174; No. p. 4; Pp. 931-951; Bibl. 1 p.3/4 LA : Anglais EA : The paper describes a method of small area estimation which uses a reweighting algorithm to reweight survey data to a number of known totals (benchmarks) for small areas. The method has so far been used to estimate small area poverty rates and housing stress. The method gives poverty rates for small areas that are similar to those available from the 2006 Australian census, when the same definition of poverty was used. Various methods of validating the poverty rates have been used, including aggregating the poverty rates to a larger area and comparing them with official Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates from a survey, and applying the spatial microsimulation to larger areas and comparing with official Australian Bureau of Statistics survey results. Both these tests show that the estimates are comparable and fairly robust for most states in Australia. CC : 001A02H02A; 001A02H02N; 001A02H02E FD : Théorie échantillonnage; Estimation; Algorithme; Analyse donnée; Pauvreté; Contrainte mécanique; Recensement; Méthode statistique; Sondage statistique; 62D05 ED : Sampling theory; Estimation; Algorithm; Data analysis; Poverty; Mechanical stress; Census; Statistical method; Sample survey SD : Teoría muestreo; Estimación; Algoritmo; Análisis datos; Pobreza; Tensión mecánica; Censo; Método estadístico; Ecuesta estadística LO : INIST-2097A.354000507223060050 148/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0457938 INIST ET : Modeling the Evacuation of Large-Scale Crowded Pedestrian Facilities AU : ABDELGHANY (Ahmed); ABDELGHANY (Khaled); MAHMASSANI (Hani); AL-AHMADI (Hasan); ALHALABI (Wael) AF : College of Business, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, 600 South Clyde Morris Boulevard/Daytona Beach, FL 32114/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Environmental and Civil Engineering, Southern Methodist University, P.O. Box 750340/Dallas, TX 75275-0340/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Transportation Center, Northwestern University, 215 Chambers Hall, 600 Foster Street/Evanston, IL 60208/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, P.O. Box 655/Dhahran 31261/Arabie Saoudite (4 aut.); Two Holy Mosque Institute of Hajj Research, P.O. Box 3176/Makkah/Arabie Saoudite (5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; No. 2198; Pp. 152-160; Bibl. 15 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper presents a simulation modeling framework for evaluating the performance of large-scale crowded pedestrian facilities during emergency evacuation. The framework adopts a microsimulation assignment approach implemented in a cellular automata platform. It captures the different behavioral rules that govern the dynamics of evacuees' decisions, including exit gate choice, path choice, frequency of path updating, and the evacuees' tolerance of congestion. The framework is first used to investigate the sensitivity of evacuation performance to the behavioral rules that were introduced. Next, it is used to evaluate evacuation performance in a large pedestrian facility, with a capacity of about 50,000 pedestrians, that frequently operates at extreme congestion levels. Several experiments are designed to investigate the impact of different model parameters on evacuation performance. The results illustrate the impact that the evacuees' behavior can have on the performance of the evacuation process. In particular, overall performance of the evacuation process can be improved if evacuees are trained to make a better choice of gate, so that they weigh both the proximity of a gate and the level of congestion around that gate. Furthermore, when evacuees have the opportunity to learn about better exit opportunities, either on their own or through a guidance system, they can frequently update their exit decisions and the overall evacuation performance improves. In addition, the evacuation throughput generally improves as evacuees become less tolerant of congestion. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic piéton; Modélisation; Echelle grande; Evacuation personne; Evaluation performance; Comportement; Etude expérimentale; Application; Résultat expérimental; Congestion trafic; Foule; Effet de masse; Procédure urgence; Arabie saoudite FG : Asie ED : Pedestrian traffic; Modeling; Large scale; Person evacuation; Performance evaluation; Behavior; Experimental study; Application; Experimental result; Traffic congestion; Crowd; Crowding effect; Emergency procedure; Saudi Arabia EG : Asia SD : Tráfico peatones; Modelización; Escala grande; Evacuación personas; Evaluación prestación; Conducta; Estudio experimental; Aplicación; Resultado experimental; Congestión tráfico; Multitud; Efecto masivo; Proceso urgencia; Arabia saudita LO : INIST-10459B.354000192107730170 149/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0451956 INIST ET : Simulation and Evaluation of Automated Vehicle Identification at Weigh-in-Motion Inspection Stations: Case Study from British Columbia, Canada AU : ISMAIL (Karim); LIM (Clark); SAYED (Tarek) AF : Bureau of ITS and Freight Security, Department of Civil Engineering, University of British Columbia/Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1 Z4/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; No. 2160; Pp. 140-150; Bibl. 13 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper describes the development and validation of a discrete event microsimulation model that was applied to investigate the implementation of automated vehicle identification (A VI) technologies at Nordel Inspection Station in Delta, British Columbia. Current operational policies require commercial vehicles passing through the area to be inspected. The study, which includes an extensive field survey to collect validation data, determined that the implementation of a conservative industry participation of 10% in the AVI program would result in benefits ranging from $2.4 million to $7.9 million (2008 CAD), or benefit-cost ratios ranging from 11 to 47 for a range of net-present value project costs of $50 to $200,000. Benefits also include the reduction of emissions, with 5-year greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions ranging from 2,200 to 7,200 metric tons, or a cost of $9.1 to $123 per reduction of 1 ton of GHG, for a range of project implementation scenarios. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Simulation; Identification véhicule; Système automatique; Système événement discret; Etude cas; Colombie britannique; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Modèle microscopique; Etalonnage; Evaluation; Résultat; Pesage dynamique FG : Canada; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Simulation; Vehicle identification; Automatic system; Discrete event system; Case study; British Columbia; Modeling; Simulation model; Microscopic model; Calibration; Evaluation; Result; Weigh in motion EG : Canada; North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Simulación; Identificación vehículo; Sistema automático; Sistema acontecimiento discreto; Estudio caso; Colombia Británica; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Modelo microscópico; Contraste; Evaluación; Resultado; Peso en movimiento LO : INIST-10459B.354000192103930150 150/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0451395 INIST ET : Prediction of higher mortality reduction for the UK Breast Screening Frequency Trial: a model-based approach on screening intervals AU : RAVESTEYN (Nt Van); HEIJNSDIJK (Eam); DRAISMA (G.); DE KONING (H. J.) AF : Deportment of Public Health, Erasmus MC, PO Box 2040/Rotterdam 3000/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : British journal of cancer; ISSN 0007-0920; Coden BJCAAI; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2011; Vol. 105; No. 7; Pp. 1082-1088; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : BACKGROUND: The optimal interval between two consecutive mammograms is uncertain. The UK Frequency Trial did not show a significant difference in breast cancer mortality between screening every year (study group) and screening every 3 years (control group). In this study, the trial is simulated in order to gain insight into the results of the trial and to predict the effect of different screening intervals on breast cancer mortality. METHODS UK incidence, life tables and information from the trial were used in the microsimulation model MISCAN-Fadia to simulate the trial and predict the number of breast cancer deaths in each group. To be able to replicate the trial, a relatively low sensitivity had to be assumed. RESULTS The model simulated a larger difference in tumour size distribution between the two groups than observed and a relative risk (RR) of 0.83 of dying from breast cancer in the study group compared with the control group. The predicted RR is lower than that reported from the trial (RR 0.93), but within its 95% confidence interval (0.63-1.37). CONCLUSION: The present study suggests that there is benefit of shortening the screening interval, although the benefit is probably not large enough to start annual screening. CC : 002B04; 002B20E02 FD : Cancer du sein; Homme; Mortalité; Mammographie; Royaume-Uni; Intervalle temps; Dépistage; Cancérologie FG : Europe; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Pathologie de la glande mammaire; Pathologie du sein; Radiodiagnostic; Santé publique ED : Breast cancer; Human; Mortality; Mammography; United Kingdom; Time interval; Medical screening; Cancerology EG : Europe; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Mammary gland diseases; Breast disease; Radiodiagnosis; Public health SD : Cáncer del pecho; Hombre; Mortalidad; Mastografía; Reino Unido; Intervalo tiempo; Descubrimiento; Cancerología LO : INIST-6925.354000507817730310 151/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0449059 INIST ET : Economic tradeoff between biochar and bio-oil production via pyrolysis AU : YODER (Jonathan); GALINATO (Suzette); GRANATSTEIN (David); GARCIA-PEREZ (Manuel) AF : School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University/Pullman, WA 99164/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); IMPACT Center, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University/Pullman, WA 99164/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, Washington State University, 1100 N. Western Ave./Wenatchee, WA 98801/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Department of Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University/Pullman, WA 99164/Etats-Unis (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Biomass & bioenergy; ISSN 0961-9534; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2011; Vol. 35; No. 5; Pp. 1851-1862; Bibl. 23 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper examines some of the economic tradeoffs in the joint production of biochar and bio-oil from cellulosic biomass. The pyrolysis process can be performed at different final temperatures, and with different heating rates. While most carbonization technologies operating at low heating rates (large biomass particles) result in higher yields of charcoal, fast pyrolysis (which processes small biomass particles) is the preferred technology to produce bio-oils. Varying operational and design parameters can change the relative quantity and quality of biochar and bio-oil produced for a given feedstock. These changes in quantity and quality of both products affect the potential revenue from their production and sale. We estimate quadratic production functions for biochar and bio-oil. The results are then used to calculate a product transformation curve that characterizes the yields of bio-oil and biochar that can be produced for a given amount of feedstock, movement along the curve corresponds to changes in temperatures, and it can be used to infer optimal pyrolysis temperature settings for a given ratio of biochar and bio-oil prices. CC : 001D06B07C; 001D06A01C5; 230 FD : Biomasse; Pyrolyse; Production; Charbon bois; Huile végétale; Etude technicoéconomique; Rendement; Condition opératoire; Optimisation économique; Revenu économique; Simulation; Modèle économétrique ED : Biomass; Pyrolysis; Production; Charcoal; Vegetable oil; Technicoeconomic study; Yield; Operating conditions; Economic optimization; Income; Simulation; Econometric model SD : Biomasa; Pirólisis; Producción; Carbón madera; Aceite vegetal; Estudio técnicoeconómico; Rendimiento; Condición operatoria; Optimización económica; Renta; Simulación; Modelo econométrico LO : INIST-27204.354000191487000300 152/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0447901 INIST ET : Traffic microsimulation scenario tests by the Taguchi method AU : GUNAY (Banihan); HINISLIOGLU (Sinan) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, Akdeniz University/Antalya/Turquie (1 aut.); Ataturk University, Engineering Faculty, Department of Civil Engineering/Erzurum/Turquie (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers. Transport; ISSN 0965-092X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2011; Vol. 164; No. 1; Pp. 33-42; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : The usability of the Taguchi method in traffic simulation was investigated to demonstrate whether full factorial scenario testing is necessary on a small road network by changing certain links into one-way streets to ascertain the minimum total delay. A network with 52 links was constructed and four arbitrarily chosen links were made one-way streets, one by one in both directions. The best directions of traffic for each of these four links which gave minimum total delay time over the whole network were studied by means of Paramics microsimulation software. The simulation runs were designed using an orthogonal array technique in L8 array with four factors (with two levels each) and three interactions. The total delay time was selected as the response variable. The response data were analysed using an analysis of variance technique by the Taguchi method. In addition, the Taguchi outcome was judged against the results of the full factorial design of the actual Paramics runs for the best and transparent comparison. Furthermore, in comparison with full factorial design, the results demonstrated that the use of the Taguchi method enabled the interactions between the factors to be seen, which cannot be achieved so simply by simulation trials. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O02; 001D14C03; 001D15B; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Réseau routier; Modèle simulation; Méthode Taguchi; Evaluation performance; Scénario; Exemple; Type véhicule; Modèle origine destination; Temps retard; Gestion trafic ED : Road traffic; Road network; Simulation model; Taguchi method; Performance evaluation; Script; Example; Vehicle type; Origin destination model; Delay time; Traffic management SD : Tráfico carretera; Red carretera; Modelo simulación; Método Taguchi; Evaluación prestación; Argumento; Ejemplo; Tipo vehículo; Modelo origen destinación; Tiempo retardo; Gestión tráfico LO : INIST-6862I.354000192811390040 153/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0446968 INIST ET : Signal Priority near Major Bus Terminal: Case Study of Ruggles Station, Boston, Massachusetts AU : FURTH (Peter G.); CESME (Burak); RIMA (Tarannum) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, 360 Huntington Avenue, Room 400, Snell Engineering Center/Boston, MA 02115/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); Cambridge Systematics, 100 Cambridge 2Park Drive, No. 400/Cambridge, MA 02140-2369/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; No. 2192; Pp. 89-96; Bibl. 8 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Near major bus terminals, multiple bus arrivals per signal cycle and a convergence of buses from conflicting directions can make it impractical to apply signal priority logic that attempts to interrupt the signal cycle for each bus. This research explores signal control logic for reducing bus delay around a major bus terminal in Boston, Massachusetts, where the busiest intersections see almost four buses per signal cycle. With a traffic microsimulation to model a succession of signal priority tactics, a reduction in bus delay of 22 s per intersection was obtained, with no significant impact on general traffic. The general strategy was to provide buses with green waves, so that they are stopped at most once, coupled with strategies to minimize initial delay. The greatest delay reduction came from passive priority treatments: changing phase sequence, splits, and offsets to favor bus movements. Green extension and green insertion were found to be effective for reducing initial delay and for providing dynamic coordination. Dynamic phase rotation, from lagging to leading left, proved less effective. Cycle-constrained free actuation, in which an intersection has a fixed cycle length within which two phases can alternate freely, provided flexibility for effective application of early green and green extension at one intersection with excess capacity. Emphasis is given to the approach of providing aggressive priority with compensation for interrupted phases, highlighting the compensation mechanism afforded by actuated control with snappy settings and long maximum greens. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Transport routier; Priorité; Autobus; Terminal; Etude cas; Massachusetts; Feu signalisation; Analyse site; Modèle simulation; Stratégie; Coordination; Gestion trafic; Efficacité FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road transportation; Priority; Bus; Terminal; Case study; Massachusetts; Traffic lights; Site analysis; Simulation model; Strategy; Coordination; Traffic management; Efficiency EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transporte por carretera; Prioridad; Autobus; Terminal; Estudio caso; Massachusetts; Semáforo; Análisis emplazamiento; Modelo simulación; Estrategia; Coordinación; Gestión tráfico; Eficacia LO : INIST-10459B.354000192107160080 154/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0446944 INIST ET : Roundabouts in Signalized Corridors: Evaluation of Traffic Flow Impacts AU : HALLMARK (Shauna L.); FITZSIMMONS (Eric J.); ISEBRANDS (Hillary N.); GIESE (Karen L.) AF : Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, Institute for Transportation, Center for Transportation Research and Education, Iowa State University, 2711 South Loop Drive, Suite 4700/Ames, Iowa 50010/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); PTV America, Inc., 9755 South-west Barnes Road, Suite 550/Portland, OR 97225/Etats-Unis (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; No. 2182; Pp. 139-147; Bibl. 8 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Typically, roundabouts in the United States are installed at isolated intersections to address location-specific safety or operational needs. The use of roundabouts in signalized corridors, however, has not been well evaluated. It is commonly believed that roundabouts can improve traffic flow and travel speeds along an urban corridor by reducing delay caused by idling at intersections. Concern exists, however, that a roundabout in a coordinated signalized corridor will disrupt continuous traffic flow: downstream signals can more efficiently process vehicles in a platoon, and roundabouts disperse rather than form platoons. Roundabouts also can discharge vehicles more efficiently when traffic arrives randomly. Thus unnecessary queuing may result when roundabouts are downstream of signalized intersections. Since little research was available to compare the traffic flow impacts of roundabouts within a signalized corridor, two case studies were evaluated with the microscopic traffic simulation package, VISSIM. A roundabout and two signalized alternatives, as well as a roundabout and a four-way, stop-controlled alternative, were compared at intersections along signalized corridors in Ames, Iowa, and Woodbury, Minnesota, respectively. The traffic data and corridor geometry were coded into VISSIM, and traditional intersection traffic control within the corridors was compared with a scenario that had a two-lane roundabout. With the microsimulation software, average travel time, stopped delay, and average delay for the entire corridor were compared. CC : 001D14O02; 001D15C; 295 FD : Carrefour giratoire; Sécurité trafic; Trafic routier; Corridor; Feu signalisation; Etats-Unis; Etude impact; Ecoulement trafic; Modélisation; Géométrie; Etude comparative FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Roundabout; Traffic safety; Road traffic; Corridor; Traffic lights; United States; Impact study; Traffic flow; Modeling; Geometry; Comparative study EG : North America; America SD : Bifurcación giratoria; Seguridad tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Corredor; Semáforo; Estados Unidos; Estudio impacto; Flujo tráfico; Modelización; Geometría; Estudio comparativo LO : INIST-10459B.354000192106170180 155/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0444708 INIST ET : Development of a Microsimulation Analysis Tool for Paratransit Patron Accessibility in Small and Medium Communities AU : LAMONDIA (Jeffrey J.); BHAT (Chandra R.) AF : Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1761/Austin, TX 78712-0278/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; No. 2174; Pp. 29-38; Bibl. 29 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Paratransit is a critical form of transportation for mobility-impaired, low-income, and small and medium-sized communities. Paratransit systems face many challenges that restrict how well they can serve their communities, including limited funding, aging fleets, limited to no service standard assessments, and few practical modeling and planning practices. This paper discusses a transferable paratransit microsimulation analysis tool for patron accessibility designed to address these challenges. The tool calculates paratransit patron accessibility (defined as paratransit patrons' perceived ease of access to reach desired activities and destinations) by simulating and measuring daily paratransit patron travel patterns on the basis of service fleet and region information. The tool further allows providers to evaluate patron accessibility for any combination of population groups, travel purposes, and times of day. Transit providers can use the tool to determine how well paratransit patrons are served and the most efficient ways to improve service. The microsimulation framework, including the system of simulation models, the supporting data, and application to Brownsville, Texas, are described in detail. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Transport en commun non public; Accessibilité; Modèle simulation; Modèle microscopique; Formulation; Demande transport; Ordonnancement; Affectation trafic; Méthode mesure; Etude cas; Application; Texas FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Paratransit; Accessibility; Simulation model; Microscopic model; Formulation; Transport demand; Scheduling; Traffic assignment; Measurement method; Case study; Application; Texas EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transportes; Transporte colectivo no público; Accesibilidad; Modelo simulación; Modelo microscópico; Formulación; Demanda transporte; Reglamento; Afectación tráfico; Método medida; Estudio caso; Aplicación; Texas LO : INIST-10459B.354000192105340050 156/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0425697 INIST ET : The potential impact of RV144-like vaccines in rural South Africa: A study using the STDSIM microsimulation model AU : HONTELEZ (Jan A. C.); NAGELKERKE (Nico); BÄRNIGHAUSEN (Till); BAKKER (Roel); TANSER (Frank); NEWELL (Marie-Louise); LURIE (Mark N.); BALTUSSEN (Rob); DE VLAS (Sake J.); CHEN (Robert T.); GLASSER (John W.); HANKINS (Catherine A.) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 4 aut., 9 aut.); Department of Primary and Community Care, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Center/Nijmegen/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 8 aut.); Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal/Mtubatuba/Afrique du Sud (1 aut., 3 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut.); Department of Community Medicine, United Arab Emirates University/Al Ain/Emirats Arabes Unis (2 aut.); Department of Medical Microbiology, University of Manitoba/Winnipeg/Canada (2 aut.); Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health/Boston/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Department of Epidemiology and the International Health Institute, Warren Alpert Medical School, Brown University/Providence, RI/Etats-Unis (7 aut.); Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention, National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)/Atlanta, GA/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Division of Viral Diseases, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)/Atlanta, GA/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Office of the Deputy Executive Director, Programme UNAIDS- Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS/Geneva/Suisse (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Vaccine; ISSN 0264-410X; Coden VACCDE; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2011; Vol. 29; No. 36; Pp. 6100-6106; Bibl. 41 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: The only successful HIV vaccine trial to date is the RV144 trial of the ALVAC/AIDSVAX vaccine in Thailand, which showed an overall incidence reduction of 31%. Most cases were prevented in the first year, suggesting a rapidly waning efficacy. Here, we predict the population level impact and cost-effectiveness of practical implementation of such a vaccine in a setting of a generalised epidemic with high HIV prevalence and incidence. Methods: We used STDSIM, an established individual-based microsimulation model, tailored to a rural South African area with a well-functioning HIV treatment and care programme. We estimated the impact of a single round of mass vaccination for everybody aged 15-49, as well as 5-year and 2-year re-vaccination strategies for young adults (aged 15-29). We calculated proportion of new infections prevented, cost-effectiveness indicators, and budget impact estimates of combined ART and vaccination programmes. Results: A single round of mass vaccination with a RV144-like vaccine will have a limited impact, preventing only 9% or 5% of new infections after 10 years at 60% and 30% coverage levels, respectively. Revaccination strategies are highly cost-effective if vaccine prices can be kept below 150 US$/vaccine for 2-year revaccination strategies, and below 200 US$/vaccine for 5-year revaccination strategies. Net cost-savings through reduced need for HIV treatment and care occur when vaccine prices are kept below 75 US$/vaccine. These results are sensitive to alternative assumptions on the underlying sexual network, background prevention interventions, and individual's propensity and consistency to participate in the vaccination campaign. Discussion: A modestly effective vaccine can be a cost-effective intervention in highly endemic settings. To predict the impact of vaccination strategies in other endemic situations, sufficient knowledge of the underlying sexual network, prevention and treatment interventions, and individual propensity and consistency to participate, is key. These issues are all best addressed in an individual-based microsimulation model. CC : 002A05F04; 002A05C10 FD : Virus immunodéficience humaine; Vaccin; Afrique du Sud; Modèle mathématique FG : Lentivirus; Retroviridae; Virus; Afrique; Afrique australe ED : Human immunodeficiency virus; Vaccine; South Africa; Mathematical model EG : Lentivirus; Retroviridae; Virus; Africa; Southern Africa SD : Human immunodeficiency virus; Vacuna; Sudáfrica; Modelo matemático LO : INIST-20289.354000191170280050 157/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0424480 INIST ET : How Much Colonoscopy Screening Should Be Recommended to Individuals With Various Degrees of Family History of Colorectal Cancer? AU : WILSCHUT (Janneke A.); STEYERBERG (Ewout W.); VAN LEERDAM (Monique E.); LANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris); HABBEMA (J. Dik F.); VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut.); Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Cancer; ISSN 0008-543X; Coden CANCAR; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 117; No. 18; Pp. 4166-4174; Bibl. 53 ref. LA : Anglais EA : BACKGROUND: Individuals with a family history of colorectal cancer (CRC) are at increased risk for CRC. Current screening recommendations for these individuals are based on expert opinion. The authors investigated optimal screening strategies for individuals with various degrees of family history of CRC based on a cost-effectiveness analysis. METHODS: The MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model was used to estimate costs and effects of CRC screening strategies, varying by the age at which screening was started and stopped and by screening interval. The authors defined 4 risk groups, characterized by the number of affected first-degree relatives and their age at CRC diagnosis. For all risk groups, the optimal screening strategy had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of approximately $50,000 per life-year gained. RESULTS: The optimal screening strategy for individuals with 1 first-degree relative diagnosed after age 50 years was 6 colonoscopies every 5 years starting at age 50 years, compared with 4 colonoscopies every 7 years starting at age 50 years for average risk individuals. The optimal strategy had 10 colonoscopies every 4 years for individuals with 1 first-degree relative diagnosed before age 50 years, 13 colonoscopies every 3 years for individuals with 2 or more first-degree relatives diagnosed after age 50 years, and 15 colonoscopies every 3 years for individuals with 2 or more first-degree relatives of whom at least 1 was diagnosed before age 50 years. CONCLUSIONS: The optimal screening strategy varies considerably with the number of affected first-degree relatives and their age of diagnosis. Shorter screening intervals than the currently recommended 5 years may be appropriate for the highest risk individuals. CC : 002B04; 002B13B01 FD : Colonoscopie; Dépistage; Homme; Endoscopie; Histoire familiale; Antécédent; Cancer colorectal; Précoce; Diagnostic; Tumeur maligne; Facteur risque; Analyse coût efficacité; Cancérologie FG : Cancer; Pathologie de l'appareil digestif; Pathologie du côlon; Pathologie de l'intestin; Pathologie du rectum ED : Colonoscopy; Medical screening; Human; Endoscopy; Family story; Antecedent; Colorectal cancer; Early; Diagnosis; Malignant tumor; Risk factor; Cost efficiency analysis; Cancerology EG : Cancer; Digestive diseases; Colonic disease; Intestinal disease; Rectal disease SD : Colonoscopía; Descubrimiento; Hombre; Endoscopía; Historia familiar; Antecedente; Cancer de colon y recto; Precoz; Diagnóstico; Tumor maligno; Factor riesgo; Análisis costo eficacia; Cancerología LO : INIST-2701.354000500199190090 158/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0408979 INIST ET : Integrating an Activity-Based Travel Demand Model with Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Emission Models: Implementation in the Greater Toronto, Canada, Area AU : JIANG YANG HAO; HATZOPOULOU (Marianne); MILLER (Eric J.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street/Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering and Cities Center, University of Toronto, 455 Spadina Avenue, Suite 400/Toronto, Ontario M5S 2G8/Canada (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; No. 2176; Pp. 1-13; Bibl. 20 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Microsimulation is becoming more popular in transportation research. This research explores the potential of microsimulation by integrating an existing activity-based travel demand model, TASHA, with a dynamic agent-based traffic simulation model, MATSim. Differences in model precisions from the two models are resolved through a series of data conversions, and the models are able to form an iterative process similar to previous modeling frameworks using TASHA and static assignment using Emme/2. The resulting model is then used for light-duty vehicle emission modeling where the traditional average-speed modeling approach is improved by exploiting agent-based traffic simulation results. This improved method of emission modeling is more sensitive to the effect of congestion, and the linkage between individual vehicles and link emissions is preserved. The results have demonstrated the advantages of the microsimulation approach over conventional methodologies that rely heavily on temporal or spatial aggregation. The framework can be improved by further enhancing the sensitivity of TASHA to travel time. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Modélisation; Modèle dynamique; Affectation trafic; Activité; Voyage; Demande transport; Modèle microscopique; Modèle simulation; Emission gaz; Statistique; Méthode calcul; Vitesse déplacement ED : Transportation; Modeling; Dynamic model; Traffic assignment; Activity; Travel; Transport demand; Microscopic model; Simulation model; Gas emission; Statistics; Computing method; Speed SD : Transportes; Modelización; Modelo dinámico; Afectación tráfico; Actividad; Viaje; Demanda transporte; Modelo microscópico; Modelo simulación; Emisión gas; Estadística; Método cálculo; Velocidad desplazamiento LO : INIST-10459B.354000192105590010 159/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0408974 INIST ET : From Microsimulation to Nanosimulation: Visualizing Person Trips over Multiple Modes of Transport AU : DUNCAN (Gordon) AF : Azalient, Stirling University Innovation Park/Stirling FK9 4NF/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; No. 2175; Pp. 130-137; Bibl. 15 ref. LA : Anglais EA : In the past 15 years microsimulation software tools have increased the ability to analyze congested traffic by modeling at the level of individual vehicles. Although this can be very detailed, it assumes that mode choice is fixed. The research presented models the people in the network, either walking or in vehicles, following each person for an entire trip through multiple modes of travel. This approach is called &dquot;nanosimulation.&dquot; The paper presents a pilot project that analyzes access to an airport by comparing multiple parking options, rail transit, drop-off, and taxi access. Generalized cost incorporating time, distance, and price is visualized for each access method and allows comparison of the total end-to-end cost of all combinations of modes in an interactive three-dimensional simulation model. The primary objective of the research presented is to prove that analysis at this level is practical and can provide insight that is not available from other methods. A historical perspective of microsimulation is presented to illustrate how seemingly impractical models that were run on a supercomputer in 1994 are now in common use on sub-$1,000 everyday computers. The paper describes the technologies, data structure, and algorithms used in the research and addresses the issues of data availability and model repeatability. The model area is described, with illustrations of the visualization. The final sections present results of the project, followed by conclusions and recommendations. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Outil logiciel; Moyen transport; Modèle microscopique; Analyse coût efficacité; Voyage; Transport voyageur; Etude cas; Desserte aéroport; Royaume-Uni; Performance; Réseau transport; Recommandation; Nanosimulation; Edimbourg FG : Europe ED : Transportation; Modeling; Simulation model; Software tool; Transportation mode; Microscopic model; Cost efficiency analysis; Travel; Passenger transportation; Case study; Airport service road; United Kingdom; Performance; Transportation network; Recommendation EG : Europe SD : Transportes; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Herramienta software; Medio transporte; Modelo microscópico; Análisis costo eficacia; Viaje; Transporte pasajero; Estudio caso; Servicio comunicación aeropuerto; Reino Unido; Rendimiento; Red transporte; Recomendación LO : INIST-10459B.354000192105420150 160/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0408969 INIST ET : Comparison of Agent-Based Transit Assignment Procedure with Conventional Approaches: Toronto, Canada, Transit Network and Microsimulation Learning-Based Approach to Transit Assignment AU : JOSHUA WANG; WAHBA (Mohamed); MILLER (Eric J.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street/Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4/Canada (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, University of British Columbia, 6250 Applied Science Lane/Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4/Canada (2 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, Cities Centre, University of Toronto, 45 Spadina Avenue, Suite 400/Toronto, Ontario M5S 2G8/Canada (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; No. 2175; Pp. 47-56; Bibl. 17 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The public transportation system, a key part of a multimodal transportation network, has been widely viewed as an efficient way to reduce road congestion and pollution. Public transportation planners use transit assignment models to forecast travel demand and service performance. As technologies evolve and smart transit systems become more prevalent, it is important that assignment models adapt to new policies, such as traveler information provision. This paper investigates three transit assignment tools that represent three approaches to modeling transit trip distribution over a network of fixed routes. These tools are the EMME/2 Transit Assignment Module (Module 5.35), commonly used by planners; Toronto, Canada, Transit Commission's transit assignment tool, MADITUC; and the newly developed Microsimulation Learning-based Approach to Transit Assignment (MILATRAS). These approaches range from aggregate, strategy-based frameworks to fully disaggregate microscopic platforms. MILATRAS presents a stochastic process approach (i.e., nonequilibrium based) for modeling within-day and day-to-day variations in the transit assignment process in which aggregate travel patterns can be extracted from individual choices. Although MILATRAS presents a different standpoint for analysis in comparison with equilibrium-based models, it still gives the steady state run loads. MILATRAS performs comparatively well with EMME/2 and MADITUC. In addition, MILATRAS presents a policy-sensitive platform for modeling the effects of smart transit system policies and technologies on passengers' travel behavior (i.e., trip choices) and transit service performance. CC : 001D15B; 001D15A FD : Transports; Transport public; Modélisation; Affectation trafic; Etude comparative; Orienté agent; Modèle simulation; Transport urbain; Canada; Analyse donnée; Scénario; Performance; Métropolitain; Transport voyageur; Toronto FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Public transportation; Modeling; Traffic assignment; Comparative study; Agent oriented; Simulation model; Urban transportation; Canada; Data analysis; Script; Performance; Subways; Passenger transportation EG : North America; America SD : Transportes; Transporte público; Modelización; Afectación tráfico; Estudio comparativo; Orientado agente; Modelo simulación; Transporte urbano; Canadá; Análisis datos; Argumento; Rendimiento; Metropolitano; Transporte pasajero LO : INIST-10459B.354000192105420060 161/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0399226 INIST ET : Do Calculated Conflicts in Microsimulation Model Predict Number of Crashes? AU : DIJKSTRA (Atze); MARCHESINI (Paula); BIJLEVELD (Frits); KARS (Vincent); DROLENGA (Hans); VAN MAARSEVEEN (Martin) AF : SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research, P.O. Box 1090/2260 BB Leidschendam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.); Grontmij Nederland bv, Postbus 203/3730 AE De Bilt/Pays-Bas (5 aut.); Center for Transport Studies, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217/7500 AE Enschede/Pays-Bas (6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; No. 2147; Pp. 105-112; Bibl. 15 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A microsimulation model and its calculations are described, and the results that are subsequently used to determine indicators for traffic safety are presented. The method demonstrates which changes occur at the level of traffic flow (number of vehicles per section of road) and at the vehicle level (vehicles choosing different routes). The best-known safety indicator in this type of model is the conflict situation, in which two vehicles approach each other and, if no action is taken, a crash will occur. These conflict situations are detected in the simulation model. This method does not necessarily relate directly to any actual observed conflicts or recorded crashes. The quantitative relationship is examined between detected conflicts at junctions in the model and recorded crashes at the same locations in the real world. The methods chosen for detecting conflicts and for selecting crashes are explained. A microsimulation model was constructed for a regional road network. The conflicts in this network were detected, and the recorded crashes were selected. The results show a quantitative relationship between the number of conflicts at priority junctions and the number of passing motor vehicles on one hand and the number of observed crashes on the other hand. When crashes and conflicts are divided into crash categories, junctions with signals clearly show substantial differences between the relative numbers of frontal crashes and frontal conflicts. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Sécurité trafic; Accident circulation; Modèle simulation; Méthode calcul; Conflit; Modèle prévision; Analyse site; Pays-Bas; Modèle statistique; Intersection FG : Europe ED : Road traffic; Traffic safety; Traffic accident; Simulation model; Computing method; Conflict; Forecast model; Site analysis; Netherlands; Statistical model; Intersection EG : Europe SD : Tráfico carretera; Seguridad tráfico; Accidente tráfico; Modelo simulación; Método cálculo; Conflicto; Modelo previsión; Análisis emplazamiento; Holanda; Modelo estadístico; Intersección LO : INIST-10459B.354000192102600130 162/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0395447 INIST ET : Integration of Driving and Traffic Simulation: Issues and First Solutions : ARTIFICIAL TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AND SIMULATION AU : PUNZO (Vincenzo); CIUFFO (Biagio) AF : Department of Transportation Engineering &dquot;L. Tocchetti,&dquot; University of Naples Federico II/80125 Napoli/Italie (1 aut.); Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, European Commission/21020 Ispra (Varese/Italie (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : IEEE Transactions on intelligent transportation systems; ISSN 1524-9050; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 12; No. 2; Pp. 354-363; Bibl. 36 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Driving simulators are very suitable test beds for the evaluation and development of intelligent transportation systems (ITSs). However, the impact of such systems on the behavior of individual drivers can properly be analyzed through driving simulators only if autonomous vehicles in the driving scenario move according to the system under evaluation. This condition means that the simulation of the traffic surrounding the interactive vehicle should already take into account the driver's behavior as affected by the system under analysis. Currently, this &dquot;loop&dquot; is not properly tackled, because the effects on individuals and traffic are, in general, separately and, often, independently evaluated. The integration of traffic and driving simulations, instead, may provide a more consistent solution to this challenging evaluation problem. It also opens up new scenarios for enhancing the credibility of both traffic modeling and driving simulation and for their combined development. For instance, because drivers directly interact with driver/traffic models in a driving simulation environment, such models may also be tested against nonnormative behavior, and this case seems the only way to test driver/traffic models for safety applications. Based on this idea, this paper describes the integration of a driving simulation engine known as SCANeR and a traffic-flow microsimulation model known as AIMSUN. Methodological and technical issues of such integration are first presented, and future enhancements for higher consistency of the simulation environments are finally envisaged. CC : 001D15C FD : Simulateur; Analyse comportementale; Système autonome; Robot mobile; Crédibilité information; Conduite véhicule; Conducteur véhicule; Gestion trafic; Sécurité trafic; Ecoulement trafic; Analyse système; Modélisation ED : Simulator; Behavioral analysis; Autonomous system; Moving robot; Information credibility; Vehicle driving; Vehicle driver; Traffic management; Traffic safety; Traffic flow; System analysis; Modeling SD : Simulador; Análisis conductual; Sistema autónomo; Robot móvil; Credibilidad información; Conducción vehículo; Conductor vehículo; Gestión tráfico; Seguridad tráfico; Flujo tráfico; Análisis sistema; Modelización LO : INIST-27061.354000192168460050 163/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0395250 INIST ET : Ageing with HIV in South Africa AU : HONTELEZ (Jan A. C.); LURIE (Mark N.); NEWELL (Marie-Louise); BAKKER (Roel); TANSER (Frank); BARNIGHAUSEN (Till); BALTUSSEN (Rob); DE VLAS (Sake J.) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 4 aut., 8 aut.); Nijmegen International Center for Health System Analysis and Education, Department of Primary and Community Care, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre/Nijmegen/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 7 aut.); Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal/Mtubatuba/Afrique du Sud (1 aut., 3 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut.); Department of Community Health and the International Health Institute, Warren Alpert Medical School, Brown University/Providence, Rhode Island/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health/Boston, Massachusetts/Etats-Unis (6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Correspondance, lettre; Niveau analytique SO : AIDS : (London); ISSN 0269-9370; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 25; No. 13; Pp. 1665-1667; Bibl. 20 ref. LA : Anglais EA : We used an established microsimulation model, quantified to a rural South African setting with a well developed antiretroviral treatment programme, to predict the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the HIV epidemic in the population aged over 50 years. We show that the HIV prevalence in patients aged over 50 years will nearly double in the next 30 years, whereas the fraction of HIV-infected patients aged over 50 years will triple in the same period. This ageing epidemic has important consequences for the South African healthcare system, as older HIV patients require specialized care. CC : 002B05C02D; 002B06D01 FD : SIDA; Vieillissement; Afrique du Sud; Virus immunodéficience humaine FG : Virose; Infection; Afrique; Lentivirus; Retroviridae; Virus; Immunodéficit; Immunopathologie ED : AIDS; Ageing; South Africa; Human immunodeficiency virus EG : Viral disease; Infection; Africa; Lentivirus; Retroviridae; Virus; Immune deficiency; Immunopathology SD : SIDA; Envejecimiento; Sudáfrica; Human immunodeficiency virus LO : INIST-22094.354000508962820130 164/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0385870 INIST ET : Comparison of MATSim and EMME/2 on Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area Network, Canada AU : WENLI GAO; BALMER (Michael); MILLER (Eric J.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street/Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4/Canada (1 aut.); Institute for Transport Planning and Systems, ETH Zurich, HIL F 51.1, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 15/8093 Zurich/Suisse (2 aut.); Cities Center, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, Suite 400, 455 Spadina Avenue/Toronto, Ontario M5S 2G8/Canada (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; No. 2197; Pp. 118-128; Bibl. 30 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The agent-based microsimulation modeling technique for transportation planning is rapidly developing, is being applied in practice, and is attracting considerable attention. Along with the conventional four-step modeling technique, MATSim and EMME/2 represent two genres of traffic assignment. They are built on different theoretical bases: dynamic stochastic stationary state assignment and static deterministic user equilibrium assignment, respectively. A study was done of the models' application with data from the Greater Toronto and Hamilton area network in Canada. Given the actual demand data, the models' assignment results are compared and validated on the basis of four indicators of the road network-travel time, travel distance, link volume, and link speed- to reflect both spatial and temporal variation of the traffic flow pattern. The comparison results show that numerical outputs produced by MATSim are not only compatible with those by EMME/2 but are also more realistic from a temporal point of view. The agent-based microsimulation model can be an appropriate alternative to the conventional model for transportation planning. Therefore, agent-based microsimulation models reflect a promising direction of next-generation transportation planning models. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Planification; Etude comparative; Canada; Etude théorique; Modèle simulation; Modélisation; Modèle dynamique; Affectation trafic; Réseau; Validation; Ecoulement trafic; Vitesse déplacement FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Planning; Comparative study; Canada; Theoretical study; Simulation model; Modeling; Dynamic model; Traffic assignment; Network; Validation; Traffic flow; Speed EG : North America; America SD : Transportes; Planificación; Estudio comparativo; Canadá; Estudio teórico; Modelo simulación; Modelización; Modelo dinámico; Afectación tráfico; Red; Validación; Flujo tráfico; Velocidad desplazamiento LO : INIST-10459B.354000192107650140 165/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0382502 INIST ET : Analytical Method for Estimating the Impact of Transit Signal Priority on Vehicle Delay AU : ABDY (Zeeshan R.); HELLINGA (Bruce R.) AF : Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Waterloo, 200 University Ave. West/Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G1/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 137; No. 8; Pp. 589-600; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Transit agencies seeking to improve transit service delivery are increasingly considering the deployment of transit signal priority (TSP). However, the impact of TSP on transit service and on the general traffic stream is a function of many factors, including intersection geometry, signal timings, traffic demands, TSP strategies and parameters, transit vehicle headways, timing when transit vehicles arrive at the intersection, etc. Previous studies have shown that depending on these factors, the net impact of TSP in terms of vehicle or person delay can be positive or negative. Furthermore, because of financial constraints, transit agencies are often able to deploy TSP at only a portion of all of the candidate intersections. Consequently, there is a need to estimate the impact of TSP before implementation to assist in determining at which intersections TSP should be deployed. Currently, the impacts of TSP are often estimated by using microscopic simulation models. However, the application of these models is resource intensive and requires specialized expertise that is often not available in-house to transit agencies. In this paper, we propose and validate an analytical model for estimating the delay impacts of green extension and early green (red truncation) TSP strategies. The model is applied to individual intersections and can reflect the effect of coordination on arrivals to the intersection ; however, it does not consider the impact of TSP on coordination at downstream intersections. The results show that the proposed model provides estimates of the delay impacts of TSP that closely match those obtained from microsimulation modeling analysis (using VISSIM) for volume-to-capacity (v/c) ratios up to 0.8. The proposed model is suitable for implementation within a spreadsheet and requires considerably less effort and technical expertise to apply than a typical microsimulation model and therefore may be a more suitable tool for transit agencies to use for prioritizing TSP deployment. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O05; 001D15B; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Feu signalisation; Intersection; Méthode analytique; Priorité; Retard; Simulation; Système attente; Modèle microscopique; Transport en commun; Modèle simulation; Détection; Méthode calcul; Validation; Etude comparative ED : Road traffic; Traffic lights; Intersection; Analytical method; Priority; Delay; Simulation; Queueing system; Microscopic model; Collective transport system; Simulation model; Detection; Computing method; Validation; Comparative study SD : Tráfico carretera; Semáforo; Intersección; Método analítico; Prioridad; Retraso; Simulación; Sistema fila espera; Modelo microscópico; Transporte colectivo; Modelo simulación; Detección; Método cálculo; Validación; Estudio comparativo LO : INIST-572E.354000191159070090 166/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0382501 INIST ET : Simulation of Exclusive Truck Facilities on Urban Freeways AU : ABDELGAWAD (Hossam); ABDULHAI (Baher); AMIRJAMSHIDI (Glareh); WAHBA (Mohamed); WOUDSMA (Clarence); ROORDA (Matthew J.) AF : Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of Toronto/M5S 1A4/Canada (1 aut., 3 aut., 6 aut.); Toronto ITS Centre and Testbed, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of Toronto/M5S 1A4./Canada (2 aut.); Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of British Columbia/V6T/Canada (4 aut.); School of Planning, Univ. of Waterloo/N2L 3G1/Canada (5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 137; No. 8; Pp. 547-562; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper assesses the impact of exclusive truck facilities on urban freeway performance. A large-scale regional microscopic traffic simulation model is developed for morning and afternoon peak hours and is used to model two alternative truckway configurations in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), including a truck-only highway and a truck lane conversion on Highway 401. Demand inputs to the microsimulation model are generated by a regional transportation demand model that provides origin-destination (OD) matrices for light, medium, and heavy trucks and passenger cars. Plug-ins are developed to represent a truck-only lane in the simulation environment. The simulation model is successfully calibrated to reflect observed road counts and to produce realistic congestion patterns. The effect of infrastructure changes on travel distances, travel times, exclusive truck lane usage, and travel speeds is assessed. Microscopic simulation allows queuing formation/dissipation and bottlenecks to be represented and allows for separate analysis of truck and car performance. Addition of a 4-lane truck-only highway results in greater travel time improvements for trucks, and it sometimes results in shifting of traffic bottlenecks on Highway 401 to downstream locations. Conversion of a freeway lane on Highway 401 results in increased congestion for passenger cars, but improved travel speeds for trucks. Both scenarios show truck facility usage ranges from 100 to 800 trucks per hour per direction. CC : 001D14O02; 001D15C; 295 FD : Autoroute; Zone urbaine; Trafic routier; Transport marchandise; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Equipement collectif; Modèle microscopique; Demande transport; Etalonnage; Observation; Test ajustement; Scénario; Vitesse déplacement; Canada; Modèle origine destination FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Freeway; Urban area; Road traffic; Freight transportation; Modeling; Simulation model; Facility; Microscopic model; Transport demand; Calibration; Observation; Goodness of fit test; Script; Speed; Canada; Origin destination model EG : North America; America SD : Autopista; Zona urbana; Tráfico carretera; Transporte mercadería; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Equipamiento colectivo; Modelo microscópico; Demanda transporte; Contraste; Observación; Prueba ajuste; Argumento; Velocidad desplazamiento; Canadá; Modelo origen destinación LO : INIST-572E.354000191159070050 167/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0358937 INIST ET : Event-Based Modeling of Driver Yielding Behavior at Unsignalized Crosswalks AU : SCHROEDER (Bastian J.); ROUPHAIL (Nagui M.) AF : Institute for Transportation Research and Education (ITRE), North Carolina State Univ., Centennial Campus, Box 8601/Raleigh, NC 27695-8601/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Institute for Transportation Research and Education (ITRE), North Carolina State Univ., Centennial Campus, Box 8601/Raleigh, NC 27695-8601/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 137; No. 7; Pp. 455-465; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : This research explores factors associated with driver yielding behavior at unsignalized pedestrian crossings and develops predictive models for yielding by using logistic regression. It considers the effect of variables describing driver attributes, pedestrian characteristics, and concurrent conditions at the crosswalk on yield response. Special consideration is given to &dquot;vehicle dynamics constraints&dquot; that form a threshold for the potential to yield. Similarities to driver reaction in response to the amber indication at a signalized intersection are identified. The logit models were developed from data collected at two unsignalized midblock crosswalks in North Carolina. The data include before and after observations of two pedestrian safety treatments, an in-street pedestrian crossing sign and pedestrian-actuated in-roadway warning lights. The analysis suggests that drivers are more likely to yield to assertive pedestrians who walk briskly in their approach to the crosswalk. In turn, the yield probability is reduced with higher speeds, with deceleration rates, and if vehicles are traveling in platoons. The treatment effects proved to be significant and increased the propensity of drivers to yield, but their effectiveness may be dependent on whether the pedestrian activates the treatment. The results of this research provide new insights into the complex interaction of pedestrians and vehicles at unsignalized intersections and have implications for future work toward predictive models for driver yielding behavior. The developed logit models can provide the basis for representing driver yielding behavior in a microsimulation modeling environment. CC : 001D15C; 001D15A FD : Trafic routier; Modèle comportement; Conducteur véhicule; Passage piéton; Feu signalisation; Modélisation; Régression logistique; Caroline du Nord; Collecte donnée; Analyse donnée; Statistique descriptive; Etude comparative FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Behavior model; Vehicle driver; Pedestrian walk; Traffic lights; Modeling; Logistic regression; North Carolina; Data gathering; Data analysis; Descriptive statistics; Comparative study EG : United States; North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Modelo comportamiento; Conductor vehículo; Pasaje peatones; Semáforo; Modelización; Regresión logística; Carolina del norte; Recolección dato; Análisis datos; Estadística descriptiva; Estudio comparativo LO : INIST-572E.354000508541090030 168/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0348421 BDSP FT : Une nouvelle version du modèle de microsimulation Myriade : trimestrialisation des ressources et évaluation du revenu de Solidarité active AU : MARC (C.); PUCCI (M.) AF : Caisse Nationale d'Allocations Familiales. (C.N.A.F.). Direction des Statistiques des Etudes et de la Recherche. Paris./France DT : Publication en série; Niveau monographique SO : DOSSIERS D'ETUDES - CNAF; France; Da. 2011-02; No. 137; ; Pp. 59 p.; Bibl. 1 p.; tabl., stat., graph., ann. LA : Français FA : L'objet de ce dossier d'études est de présenter la première version du modèle de microsimulation MYRIADE avec ressources trimestrielles. Cette version a été réalisée au premier semestre de l'année 2010 à partir de l'ERFS 2007, et servira de base aux versions suivantes. Outre l'imputation de ressources trimestrielles et le calcul trimestriel de l'éligibilité au RSA, cette version a donné lieu à l'actualisation et à l'amélioration des procédures d'imputation des transferts et les procédures de calage mises en oeuvre. Le premier chapitre du dossier décrit la méthodologie utilisée pour définir des revenus trimestriels à partir des revenus annuels déclarés et des informations disponibles sur le calendrier d'activité des individus et donne les premiers résultats sur les statuts d'activité, reprises d'activité, et les revenus trimestrialisés. Le deuxième chapitre présente de manière plus générale le travail réalisé pour caler le modèle sur l'ERFS 2007 et améliorer les modules d'imputation des transferts. Les performances du modèle pour évaluer les transferts sociaux et fiscaux y sont discutées. Le troisième chapitre met l'accent sur les implications de la trimestrialisation sur l'imputation du RSA, en comparant les caractéristiques des bénéficiaires selon que le rSa leurs est attribué sur un critère de ressources trimestriel ou annuel. (extrait de l'avant-propos) CC : 002B30A11 FD : Simulation; Modèle ED : Simulation; Models SD : Simulación; Modelo LO : BDSP/ORSMIP 169/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0344995 INIST ET : Minimising twins in in vitro fertilisation: a modelling study assessing the costs, consequences and cost-utility of elective single versus double embryo transfer over a 20-year time horizon AU : SCOTLAND (G. S.); MCLERNON (D.); KURINCZUK (J. J.); MCNAMEE (P.); HARRILD (K.); LYALL (H.); RAJKHOWA (M.); HAMILTON (M.); BHATTACHARYA (S.) AF : Health Economics Research Unit, University of Aberdeen/Aberdeen/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 4 aut.); Section of Population Health, University of Aberdeen/Aberdeen/Royaume-Uni (2 aut., 5 aut.); National Perinatal Epidemiology Unit, University of Oxford/Oxford/Royaume-Uni (3 aut.); Assisted Conception Services Unit, NHS Glasgow/Glasgow/Royaume-Uni (6 aut.); Birmingham Women's Fertility Centre, Birmingham Women's Hospital/Birmingham/Royaume-Uni (7 aut.); Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Aberdeen Maternity Hospital/Aberdeen/Royaume-Uni (8 aut.); Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Aberdeen/Aberdeen/Royaume-Uni (9 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : BJOG : (Oxford. Print); ISSN 1470-0328; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2011; Vol. 118; No. 9; Pp. 1073-1083; Bibl. 50 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Objectives To assess the cumulative costs and consequences of double embryo transfer (DET) or elective single embryo transfer (eSET) in women commencing in vitro fertilisation (IVF) treatment aged 32, 36 and 39 years. Design Microsimulation model. Setting Three assisted reproduction centres in Scotland. Sample A total of 6153 women undergoing treatment at one of three Scottish IVF clinics, between January 1997 and June 2007. Methods A microsimulation model, populated using data inputs derived from a large clinical data set and published literature, was developed to compare the costs and consequences of using eSET or DET over multiple treatment cycles. Main outcome measures Disability-free live births; twin pregnancy rate; women's quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); health service costs. Results Not only did DET produce a higher cumulative live birth rate compared with eSET for women of all three ages, but also a higher twin pregnancy rate. Compared with eSET, DET ranged from costing an additional £27 356 per extra live birth in women commencing treatment aged 32 years, to costing £15 539 per extra live birth in 39-year-old women. DET cost ˜£28 300 and ˜£20 300 per additional QALY in women commencing treatment aged 32 and 39 years, respectively. Conclusions Considering the high twin pregnancy rate associated with DET, coupled with uncertainty surrounding QALY gains, eSET is likely to be the preferred option for most women aged ≤36 years. The cost-effectiveness of DET improves with age, and may be considered cost-effective in some groups of older women. The decision may best be considered on a case-by-case basis for women aged 37-39 years. CC : 002B20A04 FD : Jumeau; Procréation médicalement assistée; Modélisation; Coût; Santé publique; Etude comparative; Dédoublement; Transfert embryon; Gynécologie; Obstétrique FG : Economie santé ED : Twin; Assisted procreation; Modeling; Costs; Public health; Comparative study; Double; Embryo transfer; Gynecology; Obstetrics EG : Health economy SD : Gemelo; Procreación asistida; Modelización; Coste; Salud pública; Estudio comparativo; Desdoblamiento; Transferencia embrión; Ginecología; Obstétrico LO : INIST-1086.354000509442980060 170/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0340652 INIST ET : Differences in health between Americans and Western Europeans: Effects on longevity and public finance AU : MICHAUD (Pierre-Carl); GOLDMAN (Dana); LAKDAWALLA (Darius); GAILEY (Adam); YUHUI ZHENG AF : Universite du Quebec a Montréal (UQAM), Canada and RAND Corporation/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); University of Southern California and RAND Corporation/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 3 aut.); RAND Corporation/Etats-Unis (4 aut.); Harvard School of Public Health/Etats-Unis (5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Social science & medicine : (1982); ISSN 0277-9536; Coden SSMDEP; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2011; Vol. 73; No. 2; Pp. 254-263; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : In 1975, 50 year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than most of their Western European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy had fallen behind that of most Western European countries. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily due to real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their Western European peers. We use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Western Europe. The model implies that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Western Europeans could save up to $1.1 trillion in discounted total health expenditures from 2004 to 2050. CC : 002B30A11; 002B30A01A FD : Etude comparative; Santé publique; Américain; Europe; Européen; Longévité; Finances publiques; Incapacité; Mortalité; Epidémiologie; International; Monde; Etats-Unis; Médecine sociale; Homme FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Comparative study; Public health; American; Europe; European; Longevity; Public finances; Disability; Mortality; Epidemiology; International; World; United States; Social medicine; Human EG : North America; America SD : Estudio comparativo; Salud pública; Americano; Europa; Europeo; Longevidad; Hacienda pública; Incapacidad; Mortalidad; Epidemiología; Internacional; Mundo; Estados Unidos; Medicina social; Hombre LO : INIST-13689.354000509465900090 171/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0321231 INIST ET : Personalizing Mammography by Breast Density and Other Risk Factors for Breast Cancer: Analysis of Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness AU : SCHOUSBOE (John T.); KERLIKOWSKE (Karla); LOH (Andrew); CUMMINGS (Steven R.) AF : Park Nicollet Health Services and University of Minnesota/Minneapolis, Minnesota/Etats-Unis; University of California/San Francisco/Etats-Unis; San Francisco Coordinating Center, California Pacific Medical Center Research Institute/San Francisco, California/Etats-Unis DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Annals of internal medicine; ISSN 0003-4819; Coden AIMEAS; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 155; No. 1; Pp. 10-20; Bibl. 45 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: Current guidelines recommend mammography every 1 or 2 years starting at age 40 or 50 years, regardless of individual risk for breast cancer. Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of mammography by age, breast density, history of breast biopsy, family history of breast cancer, and screening interval. Design: Markov microsimulation model. Data Sources: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program, Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium, and the medical literature. Target Population: U.S. women aged 40 to 49, 50 to 59, 60 to 69, and 70 to 79 years with initial mammography at age 40 years and breast density of Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) categories 1 to 4. Time Horizon: Lifetime. Perspective: National health payer. Intervention: Mammography annually, biennially, or every 3 to 4 years or no mammography. Outcome Measures: Costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained and number of women screened over 10 years to prevent 1 death from breast cancer. Results of Base-Case Analysis: Biennial mammography cost less than $100 000 per QALY gained for women aged 40 to 79 years with BI-RADS category 3 or 4 breast density or aged 50 to 69 years with category 2 density; women aged 60 to 79 years with category 1 density and either a family history of breast cancer or a previous breast biopsy; and all women aged 40 to 79 years with both a family history of breast cancer and a previous breast biopsy, regardless of breast density. Biennial mammography cost less than $50 000 per QALY gained for women aged 40 to 49 years with category 3 or 4 breast density and either a previous breast biopsy or a family history of breast cancer. Annual mammography was not cost-effective for any group, regardless of age or breast density. Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Mammography is expensive if the disutility of false-positive mammography results and the costs of detecting nonprogressive and nonlethal invasive cancer are considered. Limitation: Results are not applicable to carriers of BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. Conclusion: Mammography screening should be personalized on the basis of a woman's age, breast density, history of breast biopsy, family history of breast cancer, and beliefs about the potential benefit and harms of screening. Primary Funding Source: Eli Lilly, Da Costa Family Foundation for Research in Breast Cancer Prevention of the California Pacific Medical Center, and Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. CC : 002B01; 002B24A08; 002B30A01A FD : Mammographie; Sein; Glande mammaire; Tumeur maligne; Densité; Facteur risque; Cancer du sein; Analyse risque; Epidémiologie; Analyse factorielle; Santé publique; Analyse coût efficacité; Economie santé; Médecine FG : Cancer; Radiodiagnostic; Pathologie de la glande mammaire; Pathologie du sein ED : Mammography; Breast; Mammary gland; Malignant tumor; Density; Risk factor; Breast cancer; Risk analysis; Epidemiology; Factor analysis; Public health; Cost efficiency analysis; Health economy; Medicine EG : Cancer; Radiodiagnosis; Mammary gland diseases; Breast disease SD : Mastografía; Seno; Glándula mamaria; Tumor maligno; Densidad; Factor riesgo; Cáncer del pecho; Análisis riesgo; Epidemiología; Análisis factorial; Salud pública; Análisis costo eficacia; Economía salud; Medicina LO : INIST-2014.354000190480580020 172/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0236070 INIST ET : Quantifying the effect of early retirement on the wealth of individuals with depression or other mental illness AU : SCHOFIELD (Deborah J.); SHRESTHA (Rupendra N.); PERCIVAL (Richard); KELLY (Simon J.); PASSEY (Megan E.); CALLANDER (Emily J.) AF : Clinical Trials Centre and School of Public Health, University of Sydney/Australie (1 aut., 2 aut.); University of Canberra/Australie (3 aut., 4 aut.); Northern Rivers University Department of Rural Health, School of Public Health, University of Sydney/Australie (5 aut.); Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney/Australie (6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : British journal of psychiatry : (Print); ISSN 0007-1250; Coden BJPYAJ; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2011; Vol. 198; No. FEV; Pp. 123-128; Bibl. 32 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background In addition to the health burden caused by mental illnesses, these conditions contribute to economic disadvantage because of their impact on labour force participation. Aims To quantify the cost of lost savings and wealth to Australians aged 45-64 who retire from the labour force early because of depression or other mental illness. Method Cross-sectional analysis of the base population of Health&WealthMOD, a microsimulation model built on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers and STINMOD, an income and savings microsimulation model. Results People who are not part of the labour force because of depression or other mental illness have 78% (95% CI 92.2-37.1) and 93% (95% CI 98.4-70.5) less wealth accumulated respectively, compared with people of the same age, gender and education who are in the labour force with no chronic health condition. People who are out of the labour force as a result of depression or other mental illness are also more likely to have the wealth that they do have in cash assets, rather than higher-growth assets such as superannuation, home equity and other financial investments. Conclusions This lower accumulated wealth is likely to result in lower living standards for these individuals in the future. This will compound the impact of their condition on their health and quality of life, and put a large financial burden on the state as a result of the need to provide financial assistance for these individuals. CC : 002B18C07A FD : Aspect économique; Etat dépressif; Trouble psychiatrique; Analyse quantitative; Etude transversale; Economie santé; Santé mentale; Environnement social; Australie; Adulte; Personne âgée; Retraite anticipée FG : Océanie; Homme; Trouble de l'humeur; Santé publique ED : Economic aspect; Depression; Mental disorder; Quantitative analysis; Cross sectional study; Health economy; Mental health; Social environment; Australia; Adult; Elderly; Early retirement EG : Oceania; Human; Mood disorder; Public health SD : Aspecto económico; Estado depresivo; Trastorno psiquiátrico; Análisis cuantitativo; Estudio transversal; Economía salud; Salud mental; Contexto social; Australia; Adulto; Anciano; Jubilación anticipada LO : INIST-3999.354000193655280090 173/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0223003 INIST ET : The empirical relevance of the competitive storage model AU : CAFIERO (Carlo); BOBENRIETH H (Eugenio S. A.); BOBENRIETH H (Juan R. A.); WRIGHT (Brian D.); ZILBERMAN (David); ZELLNER (Arnold) AF : Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II/Italie (1 aut.); Universidad de Concepción/Chili (2 aut.); Universidad del Bío-Bío/Chili (3 aut.); University of California at Berkeley/Etats-Unis (4 aut.); Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California/Berkeley/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2011; Vol. 162; No. 1; Pp. 44-54; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : The empirical relevance of models of competitive storage arbitrage in explaining commodity price behavior has been seriously challenged in a series of pathbreaking papers by Deaton and Laroque (1992, 1995, 1996). Here we address their major criticism, that the model is in general unable to explain the degree of serial correlation observed in the prices of twelve major commodities. First, we present a simple numerical version of their model which, contrary to Deaton and Laroque (1992), can generate the high levels of serial correlation observed in commodity prices, if it is parameterized to generate realistic levels of price variation. Then, after estimating the Deaton and Laroque (1995, 1996) model using their data set, model specification and econometric approach, we show that the use of a much finer grid to approximate the equilibrium price function yields quite different estimates for most commodities. Results are obtained for coffee, copper, jute, maize, palm oil, sugar and tin that support the specifications of the storage model with positive constant marginal storage cost and no deterioration as in Gustafson (1958a). Consumption demand has a low response to price and, except for sugar, stockouts are infrequent. The observed magnitudes of serial correlation of price match those implied by the estimated model. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02H01K; 001A02I01Q; 001A02H02I FD : Méthode statistique; Econométrie; Analyse donnée; Analyse numérique; Méthode stochastique; Méthode numérique; Analyse multivariable; Association statistique; Modèle empirique; Prix; Estimation statistique; Spécification modèle; Modèle économétrique; Maillage; Loi marginale; Autocorrélation; Maximum vraisemblance; Simulation; 60K30; 65C20; 62H20; Corrélation sérielle; Modèle numérique; Pseudo vraisemblance ED : Statistical method; Econometrics; Data analysis; Numerical analysis; Stochastic method; Numerical method; Multivariate analysis; Statistical association; Empirical model; Price; Statistical estimation; Model specification; Econometric model; Grid pattern; Marginal distribution; Autocorrelation; Maximum likelihood; Simulation; Serial correlation; Numerical model; Pseudolikelihood SD : Método estadístico; Econometría; Análisis datos; Análisis numérico; Método estocástico; Método numérico; Análisis multivariable; Asociación estadística; Modelo empírico; Precio; Estimación estadística; Especificación modelo; Modelo econométrico; Celdarada; Ley marginal; Autocorrelación; Maxima verosimilitud; Simulación LO : INIST-16460.354000192899420050 174/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0210355 BDSP FT : Evaluation de l'impact des changements épidémiologiques sur la dépense de santé en France pour 2025 : approche par microsimulation AU : THIEBAULT (S.); VENTELOU (B.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : SCIENCES SOCIALES ET SANTE; ISSN 0294-0337; France; Da. 2011-03; Vol. 29; No. 1; Pp. 35-67; Bibl. dissem.; graph, tabl., annexes LA : Français FA : Cet article propose une méthode de prédiction de l'évolution des dépenses de santé ambulatoire sous l'effet du vieillissement de la population française à l'horizon 2025. Le modèle intègre deux indicateurs d'état de santé sur lesquels chaque agent de la base de données pourra transiter, par microsimulation, créant ainsi une dynamique épidémiologique individuelle entre bonne et mauvaise santé. A l'aide d'un modèle économétrique de consommation de biens et de services de santé, les auteurs déduisent la dépense française en santé en 2025 par aggrégation de la population représentative vieillie en 2025. Le support choisi pour la première application de l'outil est la base de données ESPS 2000 de l'Irdes appareillée avec l'échantillon permanent des assurés sociaux (EPAS). Le thème traité est l'impact de changements épidémiologiques sur le montant des dépenses ambulatoires. Ces simulations ont été réalisées pour trois scénarios épidémiologiques : scénario à dynamique épidémiologique constante, vieillissement en bonne santé et vieillissement en bonne santé+progrès médical (sans prise en compte des effets prix) (résumé de l'éditeur) CC : 002B30A11 FD : Dépense; Santé; Ambulatoire; Soin; Population; Sénescence; Epidémiologie; Innovation; Médecine; Indicateur; Morbidité; Classe âge; Projection perspective; Modèle; France FG : Europe ED : Expenditure; Health; Ambulatory; Care; Population; Senescence; Epidemiology; Innovation; Medicine; Indicator; Morbidity; Age distribution; Perspective projection; Models; France EG : Europe SD : Gasto; Salud; Ambulatorio; Cuidado; Población; Senescencia; Epidemiología; Innovación; Medicina; Indicador; Morbilidad; Clase edad; Proyección perspectiva; Modelo; Francia LO : BDSP/IRDES-P86, CODBAR 0065840, 0065802 175/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0194896 INIST ET : A Simulation Model of Clinical and Economic Outcomes of Cardiac CT Triage of Patients With Acute Chest Pain in the Emergency Department AU : GOEHLER (Alexander); OLLENDORF (Daniel A.); JAEGER (Marie); LADAPO (Joseph); NEUMANN (Till); GAZELLE (G. Scott); PEARSON (Steven D.) AF : Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, 101 Merrimac St, 10th FI/Boston, MA 02114/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 6 aut.); Department of Public Health, Medical Decision Making and Health Technology Assessment, Unit-University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology/Hall/Autriche (1 aut.); Alfried Krupp von Bohlen und Halbach Foundation Chair for Health Systems Management, University of Duisburg-Essen/Essen/Allemagne (1 aut.); Institute for Clinical and Economic Review, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School/Boston, MA/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 7 aut.); West German Heart Institute, University of Essen/Essen/Allemagne (5 aut.); Harvard School of Public Health/Boston, MA/Etats-Unis (6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : American journal of roentgenology : (1976); ISSN 0361-803X; Coden AAJRDX; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 196; No. 4; Pp. 853-861; Bibl. 32 ref. LA : Anglais EA : OBJECTIVE. Uncertainty exists as to whether coronary CT angiography (CTA) compared with standard of care (SOC) is more effective and efficient in the triage of low-risk emergency department (ED) patients with acute chest pain. Our objective was to construct a simulation model to estimate clinical and economic outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS. We constructed a microsimulation model comparing SOC to coronary CTA-based triage of 1000 55-year-old patients (50% men) with acute chest pain, nonsignificant ECG changes, and initial negative cardiac markers. In SOC, patients were reevaluated with serial cardiac markers after 6-8 hours, followed by either nuclear stress imaging (SPECT) or stress echocardiography. In coronary CTA-based triage, patients were imaged immediately and, depending on the results, discharged, held for SPECT or stress echocardiography, or referred directly to invasive coronary angiography. RESULTS. Compared with SOC, coronary CTA-based triage reduced the number of patients referred for invasive coronary angiography from 406 (SPECT) or 370 (stress echocardiography) to 255 per 1000 and resulted in fewer &dquot;missed&dquot; cases of acute coronary syndrome overall (5 vs 18). Coronary CTA-based triage also resulted in fewer deaths (4 vs 6). Coronary CTA led to immediate discharge of 706 patients and produced average cost-savings in the ED of $851 (SPECT) or $462 (stress echocardiography) per patient. At 30 days after initial ED triage, coronary CTA-based management produced average savings of $283 (SPECT) and average costs of $292 (stress echocardiography) per patient triaged. CONCLUSION. Our model suggests that coronary CTA-based triage of low-risk patients with acute chest pain in the ED might reduce invasive catheterizations, could improve survival, and may save money. CC : 002B24A03; 002B12A03; 002B12A05 FD : Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire; Infarctus du myocarde; Tomodensitométrie; Modèle simulation; Pronostic; Thorax; Douleur; Artère coronaire; Angioscanner FG : Imagerie médicale; Radiodiagnostic; Angiographie; Cardiopathie coronaire; Pathologie du myocarde ED : Cardiovascular disease; Myocardial infarction; Computerized axial tomography; Simulation model; Prognosis; Thorax; Pain; Coronary artery; Angiocomputed tomography EG : Medical imagery; Radiodiagnosis; Angiography; Coronary heart disease; Myocardial disease SD : Aparato circulatorio patología; Infarto miocardio; Tomodensitometría; Modelo simulación; Pronóstico; Tórax; Dolor; Arteria coronaria LO : INIST-5093.354000190833370160 176/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0194889 INIST ET : Radiation-Related Cancer Risks From CT Colonography Screening: A Risk-Benefit Analysis AU : BERRINGTON DE GONZALEZ (Amy); KWANG PYO KIM; KNUDSEN (Amy B.); LANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris); RUTTER (Carolyn M.); SMITH-BINDMAN (Rebecca); YEE (Judy); KUNTZ (Karen M.); VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein); ZAUBER (Ann G.); BERG (Christine D.) AF : Division of Cancer Epidemiology & Genetics, National Cancer Institute, 6120 Executive Blvd/Bethesda, MD 20892/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Departmentof Nuclear Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Giheung-gu/Yongin-si, Gyeonggi-do/Corée, République de (2 aut.); Massachusetts General Hospital, Institute for Technology Assessment/Boston, MA/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (4 aut., 9 aut.); Group Health Centerfor Health Studies/Seattle, WA/Etats-Unis (5 aut.); Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging, University of California/San Francisco, CA/Etats-Unis (6 aut.); Department of Radiology, Veterans Affairs Medical Center/San Francisco, CA/Etats-Unis (7 aut.); Division of Health Policy and Management, University of Minnesota/Minneapolis, MN/Etats-Unis (8 aut.); Departmentof Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center/New York, NY/Etats-Unis (10 aut.); Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute/Bethesda, MD/Etats-Unis (11 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : American journal of roentgenology : (1976); ISSN 0361-803X; Coden AAJRDX; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 196; No. 4; Pp. 816-823; Bibl. 33 ref. LA : Anglais EA : OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study was to estimate the ratio of cancers prevented to induced (benefit-risk ratio) for CT colonography (CTC) screening every 5 years from the age of 50 to 80 years. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Radiation-related cancer risk was estimated using risk projection models based on the National Research Council's Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII Committee's report and screening protocols from the American College of Radiology Imaging Network's National CT Colonography Trial. Uncertainty intervals were estimated using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Comparative modeling with three colorectal cancer microsimulation models was used to estimate the potential reduction in colorectal cancer cases and deaths. RESULTS. The estimated mean effective dose per CTC screening study was 8 mSv for women and 7 mSv for men. The estimated number of radiation-related cancers resulting from CTC screening every 5 years from the age of 50 to 80 years was 150 cases/100,000 individuals screened (95% uncertainty interval, 80-280) for men and women. The estimated number of colorectal cancers prevented by CTC every 5 years from age 50 to 80 ranged across the three microsimulation models from 3580 to 5190 cases/100,000 individuals screened, yielding a benefit-risk ratio that varied from 24:1 (95% uncertainty interval, 13:1-45:1) to 35:1 (19:1-65:1). The benefit-risk ratio for cancer deaths was even higher than the ratio for cancer cases. Inclusion of radiation-related cancer risks from CT examinations performed to follow up extracolonic findings did not materially alter the results. CONCLUSION. Concerns have been raised about recommending CTC as a routine screening tool because of potential harms including the radiation risks. Based on these models, the benefits from CTC screening every 5 years from the age of 50 to 80 years clearly outweigh the radiation risks. CC : 002B13B01; 002B24A04 FD : Tumeur maligne; Cancer colorectal; Tomodensitométrie; Facteur risque; Dépistage; Analyse risque; Coloscopie virtuelle FG : Cancer; Pathologie de l'appareil digestif; Pathologie du côlon; Pathologie de l'intestin; Pathologie du rectum; Imagerie médicale; Radiodiagnostic ED : Malignant tumor; Colorectal cancer; Computerized axial tomography; Risk factor; Medical screening; Risk analysis; Virtual colonoscopy EG : Cancer; Digestive diseases; Colonic disease; Intestinal disease; Rectal disease; Medical imagery; Radiodiagnosis SD : Tumor maligno; Cancer de colon y recto; Tomodensitometría; Factor riesgo; Descubrimiento; Análisis riesgo LO : INIST-5093.354000190833370110 177/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0142713 INIST ET : Microsimulation Study of Effect of Volume and Road Width on PCU of Vehicles under Heterogeneous Traffic AU : THAMIZH ARASAN (V.); ARKATKAR (Shriniwas S.) AF : Dept. of Civil Engineering, Transportation Engineering Div., Indian Institute of Technology Madras/Chennai-600 036, Tamilnadu/Inde (1 aut.); Civil Engineering Group, Birla Institute of Technology & Science/Pilani-333031, Rajasthan/Inde (2 aut.); Dept. of Civil Engineering, Transportation Engineering Div., Indian Institute of Technology Madras/Chennai-600 036, Tamilnadu/Inde (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; Vol. 136; No. 12; Pp. 1110-1119; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : The traffic volume and roadway capacity are the important basic inputs required for planning, analysis, and operation of roadway systems. Expressing traffic volume as number ot vehicles passing a given section of road or traffic lane per unit time will be inappropriate when several types of vehicles with widely varying static and dynamic characteristics are comprised in the traffic. The problem of measuring volume of such heterogeneous traffic has been addressed by converting different types of vehicles into equivalent passenger cars and expressing the volume in terms of passenger car unit (PCU) per hour. The vehicles of highly heterogeneous traffic such as the one prevailing on Indian roads may occupy any convenient lateral position on the road, based on the availability of space, without any lane discipline. This study is concerned with the estimation of PCU values of vehicles in such traffic conditions, using microscopic simulation. The PCU values obtained for different types of vehicles, for a wide range of traffic volume and roadway conditions, indicate that the PCU value of a vehicle significantly changes with change in traffic volume and width of roadway. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Modèle simulation; Vitesse déplacement; Volume trafic; Capacité; Hétérogénéi té; Validation; Application; Etude comparative; Unité de voiture particulière ED : Road traffic; Simulation model; Speed; Capacity of traffic; Capacity; Heterogeneity; Validation; Application; Comparative study; Passenger car unit SD : Tráfico carretera; Modelo simulación; Velocidad desplazamiento; Volumen tráfico; Capacidad; Heterogeneidad; Validación; Aplicación; Estudio comparativo; Véhículo liviano de pasajeros LO : INIST-572E.354000194900110070 178/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0139493 INIST ET : Signal Treatments to Reduce the Likelihood of Heavy Vehicle Crashes at Intersections: Microsimulation Modeling Approach AU : ARCHER (Jeffery); YOUNG (William) AF : Accident Research Centre, Monash Univ/Victoria 3800/Australie (1 aut.); Dept. of Civil Engineering, Monash Univ./Victoria 3800/Australie (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; Vol. 136; No. 7; Pp. 632-639; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Traffic simulation modeling has been applied to many transport planning and traffic engineering situations. The further development of traffic simulation modeling to study the impact of safety measures in a systematic, rigorous, and transparent fashion is becoming increasingly viable as the models improve and the understanding of driver behavior is improving. This paper presents an application of traffic simulation to the study the safety problem of heavy vehicle red-light running at a vehicle actuated highway intersection in a metropolitan area in Australia. The processes of data collection, model calibration and validation, and evaluation are described. Modeling driver stop-or-go behavior of drivers of heavy and light vehicle in the &dquot;dilemma zone&dquot; of the vehicle actuated signal is also illustrated, along with the modeling of surrogate safety measures. Five alternative signal treatments intended to reduce heavy vehicle crash risk were considered. The results of a comparison against the existing situation showed that an extension of amber time was the most effective short-term treatment. Over the long term, however, this treatment is likely to be subject to behavioral adaptation. A green extension for heavy vehicles detected in the dilemma zone and an all-red extension for potential red-light runners were found to be treatments likely to provide a sustainable safety improvement with little impact on operational efficiency. This type of safety modeling is considered to have great potential in the future. CC : 001D15C FD : Transport routier; Poids lourd; Modélisation; Accident circulation; Feu signalisation; Sécurité trafic; Intersection; Croisement routier; Traitement signal; Collecte donnée; Comportement; Etalonnage; Validation; Résultat ED : Road transportation; Heavy truck; Modeling; Traffic accident; Traffic lights; Traffic safety; Intersection; Cross roads; Signal processing; Data gathering; Behavior; Calibration; Validation; Result SD : Transporte por carretera; Peso pesado; Modelización; Accidente tráfico; Semáforo; Seguridad tráfico; Intersección; Intersección carretera; Procesamiento señal; Recolección dato; Conducta; Contraste; Validación; Resultado LO : INIST-572E.354000170523340050 179/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0098334 BDSP FT : L'effet du vieillissement et de l'évolution de la morbidité sur les dépenses de médicaments AU : BARNAY (T.); THIEBAUT (S.); VENTELOU (B.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : REVUE D'ECONOMIE PUBLIQUE; ISSN 1778-7440; France; Da. 2011; Vol. 24-25; No. 2009-01-02; Pp. 157-186; Bibl. dissem. LA : Français FA : Nous proposons une méthode de microsimulation, mise au point par l'Inserm SE4S à partir de la littérature médicoéconomique, de l'évolution des dépenses de médicaments remboursables (en médecine de ville) sous l'effet du vieillissement et de l'évolution de l'état de santé de la population française à l'horizon 2029. » partir de l'appariement de l'Enquête sur la santé et la protection sociale (ESPS) 2004 de l'Irdes et l'Echantillon permanent d'assurés sociaux (EPAS), nous construisons 3 scenarii épidémiologiques. Nous obtenons ainsi pour les 25 ans et plus des taux de croissance annuels de dépenses en médicaments, imputables uniquement au vieillissement de la population et aux évolutions de l'état de santé, situés entre 1,14% et 1,77% CC : 002B30A11 FD : Dépense; Santé; Morbidité; Personne âgée; Projection perspective; Population; Sénescence FG : Homme ED : Expenditure; Health; Morbidity; Elderly; Perspective projection; Population; Senescence EG : Human SD : Gasto; Salud; Morbilidad; Anciano; Proyección perspectiva; Población; Senescencia LO : BDSP/ORSPACA-3149 180/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0098282 BDSP FT : L'effet du vieillissement et de l'évolution de la morbidité sur les dépenses de médicaments remboursables en ville. Une micro simulation quinquennale (2004-2029) AU : BARNAY (T.); THIEBAUT (S.); VENTELOU (B.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : ECONOMIE PUBLIQUE - PUBLIC ECONOMICS; France; Da. 2009; No. 24-25; Pp. 157-186; Bibl. dissem. LA : Français FA : Cet article propose une méthode de microsimulation, mise au point par l'Inserm SE4S à partir de la littérature médicoéconomique, de l'évolution des dépenses de médicaments remboursables (en médecine de ville) sous l'effet du vieillissement et de l'évolution de l'état de santé de la population française à l'horizon 2029. » partir de l'appariement de l'Enquête sur la santé et la protection sociale (ESPS) 2004 de l'Irdes et l'Echantillon permanent d'assurés sociaux (EPAS), nous construisons 3 scenarii épidémiologiques. Nous obtenons ainsi pour les 25 ans et plus des taux de croissance annuels de dépenses en médicaments, imputables uniquement au vieillissement de la population et aux évolutions de l'état de santé, situés entre 1,14% et 1,77% CC : 002B30A11 FD : Dépense; Médicament; Population; Sénescence; Santé; Chronique; Maladie; Morbidité; Prospective; Méthodologie; Simulation; France FG : Europe ED : Expenditure; Drug; Population; Senescence; Health; Chronic; Disease; Morbidity; Prospective; Methodology; Simulation; France EG : Europe SD : Gasto; Medicamento; Población; Senescencia; Salud; Crónico; Enfermedad; Morbilidad; Prospectiva; Metodología; Simulación; Francia LO : BDSP/IRDES 181/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0098250 BDSP FT : (Bouclier sanitaire : choisir entre égalité et équité : une analyse à partir du modèle ARAMMIS) ET : Out-of-pocket maximum rules under a compulsory health care insurance scheme : a choice between equality and equity AU : DEBRAND (T.); SORASITH (C.) AF : Institut de Recherche et de Documentation en Economie de la Santé. (I.R.D.E.S.). Paris./France DT : Rapport; Niveau monographique SO : Out-of-pocket maximum rules under a compulsory health care insurance scheme : a choice between equality and equity; France; Paris: Irdes; Da. 2010-11; RP/; Pp. 30 p. LA : Anglais FA : Cet article cherche à mesurer, à l'aide du modèle d'Analyse des réformes de l'Assurance maladie par microsimulation statique (ARAMMIS), les effets de la mise en place d'un bouclier sanitaire financé par la suppression du régime des affections de longue durée (ALD). Notre étude repose sur la comparaison des conséquences redistributives de différentes règles de boucliers sur les restes à charge des patients dans le secteur ambulatoire en France. Nous attachons une importance particulière aux indicateurs permettant de mettre en évidence les modifications des restes à charge et de mesurer l'évolution du système en termes d'équité. Nous présentons, dans une première partie, le cadre général du système de santé en France pour mieux comprendre le contexte et les enjeux d'une refonte du mode de remboursement lié à l'Assurance maladie obligatoire. Dans une deuxième partie, nous décrivons les hypothèses retenues, la base de données et le modèle de micro-simulation. Enfin, nous consacrons la dernière partie à la présentation des principaux résultats mesurant l'impact de la réforme tant au niveau des individus qu'au niveau du système (résumé d'auteur) CC : 002B30A11 FD : Dépense; Santé; Ambulatoire; Soin; Système santé; Assurance maladie; Protection sociale; Longue durée; Maladie; Contrôle; Régulation; Revenu individuel; Financement; Modèle; Simulation; Microéconomie; Méthodologie; Etude impact; France FG : Europe ED : Expenditure; Health; Ambulatory; Care; Health system; Health insurance; Welfare aids; Long lasting; Disease; Check; Regulation(control); Personal income; Financing; Models; Simulation; Microeconomy; Methodology; Impact study; France EG : Europe SD : Gasto; Salud; Ambulatorio; Cuidado; Sistema salud; Seguro enfermedad; Protección social; Larga duración; Enfermedad; Control; Regulación; Renta personal; Financiación; Modelo; Simulación; Microeconomía; Metodología; Estudio impacto; Francia LO : BDSP/IRDES-DT34 182/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0098249 BDSP FT : Apports du modèle de microsimulation Arammis : une analyse des effets redistributifs du plafonnement des restes à charge en ambulatoire AU : DEBRAND (T.); SORASITH (C.) AF : Institut de Recherche et de Documentation en Economie de la Santé. (I.R.D.E.S.). Paris./France DT : Publication en série; Niveau monographique SO : QUESTIONS D'ECONOMIE DE LA SANTE; ISSN 1283-4769; France; Da. 2010-11; No. 159; ; Pp. 8 p.; Bibl. dissem. LA : Français FA : En France, bien qu'une grande partie des dépenses de santé soit prise en charge par le système d'Assurance maladie obligatoire, d'importants restes à charge - différence entre les dépenses de santé et les remboursements de l'Assurance maladie - peuvent persister. Dans le cadre de la réflexion engagée sur les moyens de limiter ces restes à charge &dquot;excessifs&dquot;, nous avons testé deux types de plafonnement des restes à charge, à partir du modèle de microsimulation Arammis. Nous avons simulé le remplacement du dispositif actuel de remboursement à 100% des malades en affections de longue durée (ALD) par l'instauration de deux plafonnements appliqués à l'ensemble des assurés (hors bénéficiaires de la CMU) sur les remboursements de leurs dépenses de santé en ambulatoire (hors hôpital et dépassements d'honoraires). Le premier applique un plafond identique à tous ; le deuxième établit un plafond en fonction du revenu. L'étude documente, à partir d'un modèle de microsimulation basé sur des données individuelles, deux mécanismes de plafonnements de restes à charge en ne modifiant pas les équilibres financiers de l'Assurance maladie obligatoire (résumé d'auteur) CC : 002B30A11 FD : Dépense; Santé; Ambulatoire; Soin; Système santé; Assurance maladie; Protection sociale; Longue durée; Maladie; Contrôle; Régulation; Revenu individuel; Financement; Modèle; Simulation; Microéconomie; Méthodologie; Etude impact; France FG : Europe ED : Expenditure; Health; Ambulatory; Care; Health system; Health insurance; Welfare aids; Long lasting; Disease; Check; Regulation(control); Personal income; Financing; Models; Simulation; Microeconomy; Methodology; Impact study; France EG : Europe SD : Gasto; Salud; Ambulatorio; Cuidado; Sistema salud; Seguro enfermedad; Protección social; Larga duración; Enfermedad; Control; Regulación; Renta personal; Financiación; Modelo; Simulación; Microeconomía; Metodología; Estudio impacto; Francia LO : BDSP/IRDES-QES159 183/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0092764 INIST ET : Development of an Ovarian Cancer Screening Decision Model That Incorporates Disease Heterogeneity: Implications for Potential Mortality Reduction AU : HAVRILESKY (Laura J.); SANDERS (Gillian D.); KULASINGAM (Shalini); CHINO (Junzo P.); BERCHUCK (Andrew); MARKS (Jeffrey R.); MYERS (Evan R.) AF : Division of Gynecologic Oncology, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Duke University Medical Center/Durham, North Carolina/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 5 aut.); Duke Evidence Based Practice Center, Duke University Medical Center/Durham, North Carolina/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 7 aut.); Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University Medical Center/Durham, North Carolina/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Department of Medicine, Duke University Medical Center/Durham, North Carolina/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota/Minneapolis, Minnesota/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); School of Public Health, University of Minnesota/Minneapolis, Minnesota/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center/Durham, North Carolina/Etats-Unis (4 aut.); Department of Surgery, Duke University Medical Center/Durham, North Carolina/Etats-Unis (6 aut.); Division of Clinical and Epidemiological Research, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Duke University Medical Center/Durham, North Carolina/Etats-Unis (7 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Cancer; ISSN 0008-543X; Coden CANCAR; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 117; No. 3; Pp. 545-553; Bibl. 32 ref. LA : Anglais EA : BACKGROUND: Pathologic and genetic data suggest that epithelial ovarian cancer may consist of indolent and aggressive phenotypes. The objective of the current study was to estimate the impact of a 2-phenotype paradigm of epithelial ovarian cancer on the mortality reduction achievable using available screening technologies. METHODS: The authors modified a Markov model of ovarian cancer natural history (the 1-phenotype model) to incor- porate aggressive and indolent phenotypes (the 2-phenotype model) based on histopathologic criteria. Stage distribution, incidence, and mortality were calibrated to data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program of the US National Cancer Institute. For validation, a Monte Carlo microsimulation (1000,000 events) of the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) multimodality prevalence screen was performed. Mortality reduction and positive predictive value (PPV) were estimated for annual screening. RESULTS: In validation against UKCTOCS data, the model-predicted percentage of screen-detected cancers diagnosed at stage I and II was 41% compared with 47% (UKCTOCS data), and the model-predicted PPV of screening was 27% compared with 35% (UKCTOCS data). The model-estimated PPV of a strategy of annual population-based screening in the United States at ages 50 to 85 years was 14%. The mortality reduction using annual postmenopausal screening was 14.7% (1-phenotype model) and 10.9% (2-phenotype model). Mortality reduction was lower with the 2-phenotype model than with the 1-phenotype model regardless of screening frequency or test sensitivity; 68% of cancer deaths are accounted for by the aggressive phenotype. CONCLUSIONS: The current analysis suggested that reductions in ovarian cancer mortality using available screening technologies on an annual basis are likely to be modest. A model that incorporated 2 clinical phenotypes of ovarian carcinoma into its natural history predicted an even smaller potential reduction in mortality because of the more frequent diagnosis of indolent cancers at early stages. CC : 002B04; 002B20C02 FD : Cancer de l'ovaire; Carcinogenèse; Dépistage; Carcinome de l'ovaire; Décision; Prise de décision; Modèle simulation; Hétérogénéité; Mortalité; Phénotype; Cancérologie FG : Pathologie de l'appareil génital femelle; Pathologie des ovaires; Tumeur maligne; Cancer ED : Ovary cancer; Carcinogenesis; Medical screening; Ovary carcinoma; Decision; Decision making; Simulation model; Heterogeneity; Mortality; Phenotype; Cancerology EG : Female genital diseases; Ovarian diseases; Malignant tumor; Cancer SD : Cáncer del ovario; Carcinogénesis; Descubrimiento; Carcinoma de ovario; Decisión; Toma decision; Modelo simulación; Heterogeneidad; Mortalidad; Fenotipo; Cancerología LO : INIST-2701.354000194596100150 184/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0084499 INIST ET : Constrained Factor Models AU : HENGHSIU TSAI; TSAY (Ruey S.) AF : Institute of Statistical Science, Academia Sinica/Taipei 115/Taïwan (1 aut.); Econometrics and Statistics, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, 5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue/Chicago, IL 60637/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of the American Statistical Association; ISSN 0162-1459; Coden JSTNAL; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; Vol. 105; No. 492; Pp. 1593-1605; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This article considers estimation and applications of constrained and partially constrained factor models when the dimension of explanatory variables is high. Both the classical and approximate factor models are investigated. For estimation, we employ both the maximum likelihood and least squares methods. We show that the least squares estimation is based on constrained principal component analysis and provides consistent estimates for the model under certain conditions. The normality condition is not used in the derivation. We then propose likelihood ratio statistics to test the adequacy of factor constraints. The test statistic is developed under the normality assumption, but simulation results show that it continues to perform well even if the underlying distribution is Student-t. The constraints are useful tools to incorporate prior information or substantive theory in applications of factor models. In addition, the constraints also serve as a statistical tool to obtain parsimonious econometric models for forecasting, to simplify the interpretations of common factors, and to reduce the dimension. We use simulation and real examples to investigate the performance of constrained estimation in finite samples and to highlight the importance of noise-to-signal ratio in factor analysis. Finally, we compare the constrained model with its unconstrained counterpart both in estimation and in forecasting. This article has supplementary material online. CC : 001A02H02A; 001A02H02N2; 001A02H02G; 001A02H02C FD : Analyse numérique; Théorie contrainte; Econométrie; Sciences économiques; Théorie statistique; Processus stochastique; Estimation statistique; Théorie prédiction; Théorie filtrage; Analyse multivariable; Analyse correspondance; Algèbre linéaire numérique; Vecteur propre; Equation transcendante; Equation algébrique; Equation non linéaire; Maximum vraisemblance; Fonction vraisemblance; Méthode moindre carré; Analyse composante principale; Test rapport vraisemblance; Méthode statistique; Statistique test; Simulation; Loi Student; Information a priori; Théorie information; Modèle économétrique; Théorie prévision; Rapport signal bruit; Analyse factorielle; Valeur propre; 62F30; 62P20; 62B10; 62M20; 62H25; 65F15; 65H17; Estimation paramétrique; Modèle factoriel; Estimation sous contrainte; Echantillon fini ED : Numerical analysis; Constraint theory; Econometrics; Economic sciences; Statistical theory; Stochastic process; Statistical estimation; Prediction theory; Filtering theory; Multivariate analysis; Correspondence analysis; Numerical linear algebra; Eigenvector; Transcendental equation; Algebraic equation; Non linear equation; Maximum likelihood; Likelihood function; Least squares method; Principal component analysis; Likelihood ratio test; Statistical method; Test statistic; Simulation; Student distribution; Prior information; Information theory; Econometric model; Forecasting theory; Signal to noise ratio; Factor analysis; Eigenvalue; Factor model; Constrained estimation; Finite sample SD : Análisis numérico; Econometría; Ciencias económicas; Teoría estadística; Proceso estocástico; Estimación estadística; Análisis multivariable; Análisis correspondencia; Algebra lineal numérica; Vector propio; Ecuación trascendente; Ecuación algebraica; Ecuación no lineal; Maxima verosimilitud; Función verosimilitud; Método cuadrado menor; Análisis componente principal; Test razón verosimilitud; Método estadístico; Estadística test; Simulación; Ley Student; Información a priori; Teoría información; Modelo econométrico; Relación señal ruido; Análisis factorial; Valor propio LO : INIST-3094.354000193535160250 185/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0075734 BDSP FT : (Subventions salariales, incitations au travail et réforme du système de protection sociale autrichien) ET : Wage Subsidies, Work Incentives, and the Reform of the Austrian Welfare System AU : STEINER (V.); WAKOLBINGER (F.) AF : Institute for the Study of Labor. (I.Z.A.). Bonn./Allemagne DT : Rapport; Niveau monographique SO : Wage Subsidies, Work Incentives, and the Reform of the Austrian Welfare System; Allemagne; Bonn: IZA; Da. 2010-09; RP/; Pp. 23 p. LA : Anglais EA : We analyze the labor supply and income effects of a needs-based minimum benefit system (&dquot;Bedarfsorientierte Mindestsicherung&dquot;) to be introduced in Austria by the end of this/beginning of next year. The aim of this reform is to reduce poverty as well as increasing employment rates of recipients of social assistance. On the basis of a behavioral microsimulation model we show that this new system will slightly increase incomes for the poorest households and slightly reduce labor supply due to the generous allowances for marginal employment under the current and the planned regulations of unemployment assistance. As an alternative, we analyze a reform proposal which reduces financial incentives for marginal employment not covered by social security, and rewards working longer hours by a wage subsidy. Although this alternative reform would yield modest positive labor supply effects, a relatively large number of households would suffer income losses CC : 002B30A11 FD : Travail; Pauvreté; Emploi; Politique; Revenu individuel; Ménage; Durée travail; Etude impact; Autriche FG : Europe ED : Work; Poverty; Employment; Policy; Personal income; Household; Work period; Impact study; Austria EG : Europe SD : Trabajo; Pobreza; Empleo; Política; Renta personal; Familia; Duración trabajo; Estudio impacto; Austria LO : BDSP/IRDES 186/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0075202 BDSP FT : Microsimulation et modèles d'agents : une approche alternative pour l'évaluation des politiques d'emploi AU : BARLET (M.); BLANCHET (D.); LE BARBANCHON (T.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : ECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUE; ISSN 0336-1454; France; Da. 2010-08; No. 429-430-2009; Pp. 51-76; Bibl. dissem. LA : Français FA : De nombreux outils sont régulièrement mobilisés pour prévoir ou analyser l'effet des politiques d'emploi : modèles macroéconométriques, maquettes d'équilibre général, évaluations ex post sur séries temporelles ou sur données microéconomiques. Cet article explore une approche additionnelle, à mi-chemin des méthodes de microsimulation et des modèles dits ACE (agent-based computational economics). Le principe est de décrire le comportement des agents au niveau individuel, en prenant en compte la façon dont ils interagissent et répondent aux modifications de l'environnement économique général. On applique ce principe à la simulation dynamique des créations et destructions d'emploi, à l'appariement entre individus et postes, ainsi qu'aux comportements de négociation salariale. Ces processus se déroulent sous contrainte de profitabilité et sous une éventuelle contrainte de demande globale par type de biens/qualifications. Le modèle est calibré pour reproduire les principales caractéristiques du chômage et de l'emploi salarié privé en France, puis il est appliqué à la simulation de quelques exemples de chocs : choc démographique, choc sur le salaire minimum, politiques d'allègement de charges. Ce modèle est encore à l'état de prototype, mais il permet de retrouver les ordres de grandeur obtenus par les approches existantes et il présente un plus grand potentiel pour l'analyse détaillée des effets de ces politiques d'emploi. Une version plus élaborée pourrait donc utilement compléter la panoplie d'instruments actuellement disponibles pour l'analyse du marché du travail (résumé d'auteur) CC : 002B30A11 FD : Emploi; Politique; Marché travail; Salaire; Coût; Travail; Minimum; Chômage; Charges sociales; Travailleur; Etude impact; Analyse économique; Modèle; France FG : Europe ED : Employment; Policy; Labour market; Wage; Costs; Work; Minimum; Unemployment; Social charges; Worker; Impact study; Economic analysis; Models; France EG : Europe SD : Empleo; Política; Mercado trabajo; Salario; Coste; Trabajo; Mínimo; Desempleo; Cargas sociales; Trabajador; Estudio impacto; Análisis económico; Modelo; Francia LO : BDSP/IRDES-S18, CODBAR 0064938, 0064936 187/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0071858 INIST ET : Measuring and decomposing socioeconomic inequality in healthcare delivery: A microsimulation approach with application to the Palestinian conflict-affected fragile setting AU : ABU-ZAINEH (Mohammad); MATARIA (Awad); MOATTI (Jean-Paul); VENTELOU (Bruno) AF : INSERM-IRD-University of the Mediterranean, Economics & Social Sciences, Health Care Systems & Societies, SE4S-Research Unit 912/Marseille/France (1 aut.); Institute of Community and Public Health (ICPH), Birzeit University/Birzeit/PSE (1 aut.); World Health Organization, Eastern-Mediterranean Regional Office, Unit of Health Economics; Health Care Financing, Division of Health Systems and Services Delivery (EMRO, DHS/HEC)/Cairo/Egypte (2 aut.); University of the Mediterranean, INSERM-IRD-SE4S/Research Unit U912/Marseille/France (3 aut., 4 aut.); National Center for Scientific Research, Research Group in Quantitative Economics of Aix-Marseille (CNRS-GREQAM-IDEP)/Marseille/France (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Social science & medicine : (1982); ISSN 0277-9536; Coden SSMDEP; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2011; Vol. 72; No. 2; Pp. 133-141; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : Socioeconomic-related inequalities in healthcare delivery have been extensively studied in developed countries, using standard linear models of decomposition. This paper seeks to assess equity in healthcare delivery in the particular context of the occupied Palestinian territory: the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, using a new method of decomposition based on microsimulations. Besides avoiding the 'unavoidable price' of linearity restriction that is imposed by the standard methods of decomposition, the microsimulation-based decomposition enables to circumvent the potentially contentious role of heterogeneity in behaviours and to better disentangle the various sources driving inequality in healthcare utilisation. Results suggest that the worse-off do have a disproportinately greater need for all levels of care. However with the exception of primary-level, utilisation of all levels of care appears to be significantly higher for the better-off. The microsimulation method has made it possible to identify the contributions of factors driving such pro-rich patterns. While much of the inequality in utilisation appears to be caused by the prevailing socioeconomic inequalities, detailed analysis attributes a non-trivial part (circa 30% of inequalities) to heterogeneity in healthcare-seeking behaviours across socioeconomic groups of the population. Several policy recommendations for improving equity in healthcare delivery in the occupied Palestinian territory are proposed. CC : 002B30A11 FD : Socioéconomie; Aspect économique; Aspect social; Santé publique; Statut socioéconomique; Inégalité; Soin; Palestine; Conflit; Service santé; Modèle; Concentration; Indice; Equité; Pays en développement; Médecine sociale; Homme FG : Asie ED : Socioeconomics; Economic aspect; Social aspect; Public health; Socioeconomic status; Inequality; Care; Palestine; Conflict; Health service; Models; Concentration; Index; Equity; Developing countries; Social medicine; Human EG : Asia SD : Socioeconomía; Aspecto económico; Aspecto social; Salud pública; Estatuto socioeconómico; Desigualdad; Cuidado; Palestina; Conflicto; Servicio sanidad; Modelo; Concentración; Indice; Equidad; Países en desarrollo; Medicina social; Hombre LO : INIST-13689.354000193577800030 188/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0061125 INIST ET : Pathways to a low-carbon economy for the UK with the macro-econometric E3MG model AU : DAGOUMAS (A. S.); BARKER (T. S.) AF : Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR), Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, 19 Silver Street/Cambridge, CB3 9EP/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2010; Vol. 38; No. 6; Pp. 3067-3077; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper examines different carbon pathways for achieving deep CO2 reduction targets for the UK using a macro-econometric hybrid model E3MG, which stands for Energy-Economy-Environment Model at the Global level. The E3MG, with the UK as one of its regions, combines a top-down approach for modeling the global economy and for estimating the aggregate and disaggregate energy demand and a bottom-up approach (Energy Technology subModel, ETM) for simulating the power sector, which then provides feedback to the energy demand equations and the whole economy. The ETM submodel uses a probabilistic approach and historical data for estimating the penetration levels of the different technologies, considering their economic, technical and environmental characteristics. Three pathway scenarios (CFH, CLC and CAM) simulate the CO2 reduction by 40%, 60% and 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels respectively and are compared with a reference scenario (REF), with no reduction target. The targets are modeled as the UK contribution to an international mitigation effort, such as achieving the G8 reduction targets, which is a more realistic political framework for the UK to move towards deep reductions rather than moving alone. This paper aims to provide modeling evidence that deep reduction targets can be met through different carbon pathways while also assessing the macroeconomic effects of the pathways on GDP and investment. CC : 001D06D11A; 230 FD : Carbone; Royaume-Uni; Analyse macroéconomique; Modèle simulation; Modèle économétrique; Lutte antipollution; Prévention pollution; Analyse économétrique FG : Europe ED : Carbon; United Kingdom; Macroeconomic analysis; Simulation model; Econometric model; Pollution control; Pollution prevention; Econometric analysis EG : Europe SD : Carbono; Reino Unido; Análisis macroeconómico; Modelo simulación; Modelo econométrico; Lucha anticontaminación; Prevención polución LO : INIST-16417.354000181050160460 189/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0054163 INIST ET : Bidirectionally Coupled Network and Road Traffic Simulation for Improved IVC Analysis AU : SOMMER (Christoph); GERMAN (Reinhard); DRESSLER (Falko) AF : Computer Networks and Communication Systems, Department of Computer Science, University of Erlangen, Martensstr 3/91058 Erlangen/Allemagne (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : IEEE transactions on mobile computing; ISSN 1536-1233; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 10; No. 1; Pp. 3-15; Bibl. 39 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Recently, many efforts have been made to develop more efficient Inter-Vehicle Communication (IVC) protocols for on-demand route planning according to observed traffic congestion or incidents, as well as for safety applications. Because practical experiments are often not feasible, simulation of network protocol behavior in Vehicular Ad Hoc Network (VANET) scenarios is strongly demanded for evaluating the applicability of developed network protocols. In this work, we discuss the need for bidirectional coupling of network simulation and road traffic microsimulation for evaluating IVC protocols. As the selection of a mobility model influences the outcome of simulations to a great extent, the use of a representative model is necessary for producing meaningful evaluation results. Based on these observations, we developed the hybrid simulation framework Veins (Vehicles in Network Simulation), composed of the network simulator OMNeT++ and the road traffic simulator SUMO. In a proof-of-concept study, we demonstrate its advantages and the need for bidirectionally coupled simulation based on the evaluation of two protocols for incident warning over VANETs. With our developed methodology, we can advance the state-of-the-art in performance evaluation of IVC and provide means to evaluate developed protocols more accurately. CC : 001D04B03A; 001D04B02D; 001D04B02B; 001D04B03D2 FD : Trafic routier; Simulation hybride; Protocole transmission; Planification; Congestion trafic; Sécurité; Protocole réseau; Réseau ad hoc; Liaison bidirectionnelle; Simulateur; Etat actuel; Evaluation performance; Télétrafic; Communication véhiculaire ED : Road traffic; Hybrid simulation; Transmission protocol; Planning; Traffic congestion; Safety; Network protocol; Ad hoc network; Bidirectional link; Simulator; State of the art; Performance evaluation; Teletraffic; Vehicular communication SD : Tráfico carretera; Simulación híbrida; Protocolo transmisión; Planificación; Congestión tráfico; Seguridad; Protocolo red; Red ad hoc; Unión bidireccional; Simulador; Estado actual; Evaluación prestación; Teletráfico LO : INIST-27311.354000191843090010 190/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0045604 INIST ET : A comprehensive analysis of household transportation expenditures relative to other goods and services: an application to United States consumer expenditure data AU : FERDOUS (Nazneen); ABDUL RAWOOF PINJARI; BHAT (Chandra R.); PENDYALA (Ram M.) AF : Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, I University Station C1761/Austin, TX 78712-0278/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 3 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Ave., ENC 2503/Tampa, FL 33620/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Arizona State University, Room ECG252/Tempe, AZ 85287-5306/Etats-Unis (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation; ISSN 0049-4488; Coden TNPRDN; Allemagne; Da. 2010; Vol. 37; No. 3; Pp. 363-390; Bibl. 2 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper proposes a multiple discrete continuous nested extreme value (MDCNEV) model to analyze household expenditures for transportation-related items in relation to a host of other consumption categories. The model system presented in this paper is capable of providing a comprehensive assessment of how household consumption patterns (including savings) would be impacted by increases in fuel prices or any other household expense. The MDCNEV model presented in this paper is estimated on disaggregate consumption data from the 2002 Consumer Expenditure Survey data of the United States. Model estimation results show that a host of household and personal socio-economic, demographic, and location variables affect the proportion of monetary resources that households allocate to various consumption categories. Sensitivity analysis conducted using the model demonstrates the applicability of the model for quantifying consumption adjustment patterns in response to rising fuel prices. It is found that households adjust their food consumption, vehicular purchases, and savings rates in the short run. In the long term, adjustments are also made to housing choices (expenses), calling for the need to ensure that fuel price effects are adequately reflected in integrated microsimulation models of land use and travel. CC : 001D15B FD : Economie transport; Dépense; Ménage; Méthode analyse; Application; Consommateur; Etats-Unis; Carburant; Analyse donnée; Statistique descriptive; Modélisation; Analyse sensibilité FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Economy of transports; Expenditure; Household; Analysis method; Application; Consumer; United States; Motor fuel; Data analysis; Descriptive statistics; Modeling; Sensitivity analysis EG : North America; America SD : Economía transporte; Gasto; Familia; Método análisis; Aplicación; Consumidor; Estados Unidos; Carburante; Análisis datos; Estadística descriptiva; Modelización; Análisis sensibilidad LO : INIST-15985.354000181122510010 191/793 NO : PASCAL 11-0043376 INIST ET : Economic model system of chronic diseases in Australia: a novel approach initially focusing on diabetes and cardiovascular disease AU : WALKER (Agnes); BUTLER (James R. G.); COLAGIURI (Stephen) AF : Australian Centre for Economic Research on Health, Australian National University (ANU)/Canberra ACT 0200/Australie (1 aut., 2 aut.); Institute of Obesity, Nutrition and Exercise, University of Sydney/Camperdown NSW 2006/Australie (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : International journal of simulation & process modelling : (Print); ISSN 1740-2123; Suisse; Da. 2010; Vol. 6; No. 2; Pp. 137-151; Bibl. 1 p.3/4 LA : Anglais EA : Chronic diseases affect around 80% of older Australians, are main causes of premature death, and account for 70% of health expenditures. The novel features, building and validation of an Australian prototype model-system which simulates interventions that target several chronic diseases are described. Chronic disease progression models are linked to a population-wide microsimulation projection model that accounts for demographic, socio-economic and health characteristics, comorbidities, health expenditures, quality of life. It estimates costs vs. benefits of simulated policy interventions. The outcome is a validated person-level prototype able to simultaneously model diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease (CVD). An illustrative model application is also presented. CC : 001D00D; 002B30A01C FD : Modèle économique; Système économique; Homme; Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire; Politique économique; Démographie; Socioéconomie; Qualité de vie; Coût; Politique sanitaire; Maladie chronique; Endocrinopathie; Santé publique; Modélisation; Analyse économique ED : Economic model; Economic system; Human; Cardiovascular disease; Economic policy; Demography; Socioeconomics; Quality of life; Costs; Health policy; Chronic disease; Endocrinopathy; Public health; Modeling; Economic analysis SD : Modelo económico; Sistema económico; Hombre; Aparato circulatorio patología; Política económica; Demografía; Socioeconomía; Calidad vida; Coste; Política sanitaria; Enfermedad crónica; Endocrinopatía; Salud pública; Modelización; Análisis económico LO : INIST-27772.354000193312150040 192/793 NO : FRANCIS 24026476 PRODIG-INTERGEO ET : Examining the factors associated with depression at the small area level in Ireland using spatial microsimulation techniques AU : MORRISSEY (K.); HYNES (S.); CLARKE (G.); O'DONOGHUE (C.) AF : University of Leeds, School of Geography/London/Royaume-Uni (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Irish geography; ISSN 1939-4055; Irlande; Da. 2010; Vol. 43; No. 1; Pp. 1-22; Bibl. 2 p.; 7 fig., 4 tabl. LA : Anglais EA : The World Health Organisation (WHO) predicts that, world-wide, depression will be the second largest source of burden of disease by 2020. It is currently estimated that approximately 300,000 Irish people experience depression. This paper aims to address the accessibility of mental health services to individuals with depression. First, a simple logistic regression model is used to identify the determinants of depression at the national level. Secondly, the spatial distribution of individuals with depression is estimated at the small area, ED level using a spatial microsimulation model. Finally, a spatial interaction model is used to analyse access to acute inpatient facilities at the national level and community-based facilities for individuals with depression at the sub-national level. The policy implications of these results are discussed in relation to both the health care literature and current Irish health care policy CC : 531215; 531 FD : Irlande; Santé; Politique de la santé; Distribution spatiale; Variation spatiale; Services de santé; Accessibilité; Analyse régionale ED : Ireland; Health; Health policy; Spatial distribution; Spatial variation; Medical services; Accessibility; Regional analysis SD : Irlanda; Salud; Política de la salud; Distribución espacial; Variación espacial; Servicios de salud; Accesibilidad; Análisis regional LO : En ligne 193/793 NO : FRANCIS 24026093 PRODIG-INTERGEO ET : Simulation on the dynamics of forest area changes in Northeast China AU : DENG (X.); JIANG (Q.); ZHAN (J.); HE (S.); LIN (Y.) AF : Inst. of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research/Beijing/Chine (4 aut., 5 aut.); Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, CAS/Beijing/Chine; Graduate Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences/Beijing/Chine; State Key Lab. of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Normal Univ./Beijing/Chine (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of geographical sciences. Acta geographica sinica; ISSN 1009-637X; Chine; Da. 2010; Vol. 20; No. 4; Pp. 495-509; Bibl. 32 ref.; 4 fig., 3 tabl. LA : Anglais EA : To explore the dynamics of forest area change in Northeast China, an econometric model is developed which is composed of three equations identifying forestry production, conversion from open forest to closed forest and conversion from other land uses to closed forest so as to explore the impacts on the forest area changes from demographic, social, economic, location and geophysical factors. On this basis, the AA. employ the Dynamics ofLand System (DLS) model to simulate land-use conversions between forest area and non-forest cover and the land-use conversions within the sub-classes of forest area for the period 2000–2020 under business as usual scenario, environmental protection scenario and economic growth scenario. The simulation results show that forest area will expand continuously and there exist various kinds of changing patterns for the sub-classes of forest area CC : 531337; 531 FD : Forêt; Dynamique de la végétation; Sylviculture; Production; Modèle économétrique; Simulation; Utilisation du sol; Gestion des ressources; Chine; Chine du Nord-Est ED : Forest; Vegetation dynamics; Forestry; Production; Econometric model; Simulation; Land use; Resource management; China; North-Eastern China SD : Bosque; Dinámica de la vegetación; Silvicultura; Producción; Modelo econométrico; Simulación; Aprovechamiento del suelo; Gestión de los recursos; China LO : PRODIG 194/793 NO : FRANCIS 11-0452519 INIST ET : A Dynamic MSM With Agent Elements for Spatial Demographic Forecasting : Microsimulation AU : WU (Belinda M.); BIRKIN (Mark H.); REES (Philip H.) AF : University of Leeds/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Social science computer review; ISSN 0894-4393; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 29; No. 1; Pp. 145-160; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : Individual-based models such as microsimulation models (MSMs) provide an alternative to macroscopic models in social simulation and modeling. In contrast to the traditional models where individual characteristics are often blurred or even disregarded, MSM provides the realistic disaggregated information that is often vital for modern policy problems. MSM has been extensively applied and well tested in social modeling. However, it has been criticized for being less strong in modeling interactions between individuals and individual behaviors. MSM also struggles where realistic micro data are not available. Agent-based models (ABMs) can model the demographic process through interactions between the agents and with the environment that they live in. The combination of MSM and ABM provides a new approach to enhance complex social modeling. In our study, we attempt to provide better groundwork to facilitate policy and decision making for the U.K. population through a hybrid model that combines the strength of the two complementary techniques. CC : 52119; 521 FD : Prévision; Démographie; Simulation; Modèle; Individu; Interaction; Prise de décision; Royaume-Uni ED : Forecasting; Demography; Simulation; Model; Individual; Interaction; Decision Making; United Kingdom LO : INIST-26903.354000193597780090 195/793 NO : FRANCIS 11-0452518 INIST ET : Microsimulations for Poverty and Inequality in Mexico Using Parameters From a CGE Model : Microsimulation AU : ORTEGA DIAZ (Araceli) AF : Escuela de Graduados en Administración Pública y Politica Pública del Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Monterrey/San Pedro Garza Garcia, Nuevo Leon/Mexique (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Social science computer review; ISSN 0894-4393; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 29; No. 1; Pp. 37-51; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : In the current article, the author uses microsimulations to analyze poverty and inequality through the accumulative impact on wages of sequential changes in the labor market unemployment rate (U), employment structure (S), wages by economic sector (WI), average labor income (W2), and employment structure by skill level (M). These effects are based on the parameters obtained from a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, with parameters allowing for simulations from 2003 to 2015. The results show that a yearly increment in the real wages will reduce extreme poverty by half. The changes in the employment structure and wages by economic sector reduce poverty in this model because workers move from the agricultural sector to the service sector, implicitly allowing workers to move from sectors with lower wages to higher wages sectors. Nevertheless, an increase in wage inequality is related to changes in the employment structure by skill level as more skilled workers obtain better wages than unskilled employees. CC : 52150; 521 FD : Mexique; Pauvreté; Inégalité; Chômage; Marché du travail; Salaire; Simulation; Modèle; Spécialisation ED : Mexico; Poverty; Inequality; Unemployment; Labor Market; Salary; Simulation; Model; Specialization LO : INIST-26903.354000193597780030 196/793 NO : FRANCIS 11-0452513 INIST ET : Measuring the Size and Impact of Public Cash Support for Children in Cross-National Perspective : Microsimulation AU : FIGARI (Francesco); PAULUS (Alari); SUTHERTAND (Holly) AF : Institute for Social & Economic Research (ISER), University of Essex/Colchester/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); Bocconi University, DONDENA Centre for Research on Social Dynamics/Milano/Italie (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Social science computer review; ISSN 0894-4393; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 29; No. 1; Pp. 85-102; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : The authors suggest a new comprehensive measure of support given through tax benefit systems to families with children. Using microsimulation techniques, this accounts for all provisions contingent on the presence of children, while usually only gross child/family benefits are considered. The authors use EUROMOD, the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model, to quantify the support for children and analyze its impact on household incomes and child poverty for 19 countries. The authors find that the conventional approach underestimates on average the total amount of support for children by about one fifth. Furthermore, the differences between two measures vary considerably across countries and are, therefore, critical for cross-national comparisons. CC : 52164; 52132; 521 FD : Enfant; Famille; Allocations familiales; Union européenne; Aide sociale; Revenu; Pauvreté; Comparaison internationale; Simulation ED : Child; Family; Family allowance; European Union; Social welfare; Income; Poverty; Crossnational Comparisons; Simulation LO : INIST-26903.354000193597780060 197/793 NO : FRANCIS 11-0452512 INIST ET : Mandatory Superannuation and Self-Sufficiency in Retirement: An Application of the APPSIM Dynamic Microsimulation Model : Microsimulation AU : KEEGAN (Marcia) AF : NATSEM, University of Canberra/Bruce/Australie (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Social science computer review; ISSN 0894-4393; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 29; No. 1; Pp. 67-84; Bibl. 1 p. LA : Anglais EA : One of the most significant concerns about the aging population in Australia is the impact on pension costs. Mandatory occupational superannuation was introduced in 1993 to reduce future pension costs: a person with moderate to high levels of superannuation can provide for themselves to some extent and thus has a reduced pension entitlement. The ability of mandatory superannuation to reduce future pension costs is best modeled by dynamic microsimulation, as this takes into account the effect of numerous factors such as disability, child rearing, employment history, and life expectancy on superannuation levels. This article uses the Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model (APPSIM), a dynamic microsimulation model (DMSM), to estimate and simulate the distributional impact on superannuation savings of four different policy scenarios: higher labor force participation across the board; reduced disability among over-40s; higher labor force participation among primary carers of children; and an increase in the mandatory superannuation contribution rate. CC : 52164; 52133A; 521 FD : Simulation; Australie; Modèle dynamique; Retraite; Epargne; Force de travail ED : Simulation; Australia; Dynamic Model; Retirement; Savings; Labor Force LO : INIST-26903.354000193597780050 198/793 NO : FRANCIS 11-0452510 INIST ET : Primary Care in an Aging Society: Building and Testing a Microsimulation Model for Policy Purposes : Microsimulation AU : PEARSON (Janet); LAY-YEE (Roy); DAVIS (Peter); O'SULLIVAN (David); VON RANDOW (Martin); KERSE (Ngaire); PRADHAN (Sanat) AF : Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences (COMPASS), University of Auckland/Nouvelle-Zélande (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut., 7 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Social science computer review; ISSN 0894-4393; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 29; No. 1; Pp. 21-36; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : The authors describe the development of a microsimulation model of primary medical care in New Zealand for 2002 and demonstrate its ability to test the impact of demographic ageing, community support, and practitioner repertoire. Micro-level data were drawn from four sources: two iterations of the New Zealand Health Survey (NZHS 1996/1997 and 2002/2003); a national survey of ambulatory care in New Zealand (New Zealand National Primary Medical Care Survey [NPMCS] 2001/ 2002); and the Australian National Health Survey (ANHS). Data from the New Zealand surveys were statistically matched to create a representative synthetic base file of over 13,000 individuals. Probabilities of health experiences and general practitioner (GP) use derived from the ANHS, and of GP activity derived from the NPMCS were applied via a Monte Carlo process to create health histories for the individuals in the base file. Final health care outcomes simulated-the number of visits in a year, the distribution of health conditions, and GP activity levels-were validated against external benchmarks. Policy-relevant scenarios were demonstrated by a forward projection to 2021 and by implementing counterfactuals on key attributes of the synthetic population. The results showed little change in model-predicted health care outcomes. There is potential for this approach to address policy purposes. CC : 52163; 521 FD : Simulation; Modèle; Soin de santé primaire; Nouvelle-Zélande; Vieillissement; Santé publique ED : Simulation; Model; Primary health care; New Zealand; Aging; Public Health LO : INIST-26903.354000193597780020 199/793 NO : FRANCIS 11-0452509 INIST ET : What is Social Science Microsimulation? : Microsimulation AU : SPIELAUER (Martin) AF : Statistics Canada/Ottawa, ON/Canada (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Social science computer review; ISSN 0894-4393; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 29; No. 1; Pp. 9-20; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This article introduces microsimulation by presenting its main underlying ideas as well as its main strengths and drawbacks. Microsimulation is currently experiencing a boom, which is driven by three main forces. The first is the increased demand of policy makers for detailed projections and models able to assess distributional and long-term sustainability issues of social security systems. The second is the emergence of new research paradigms with an increased emphasis on individuals within their context, studied from a longitudinal, multilevel perspective. The third concerns technological advances, providing not only the necessary computer power but also the programming tools for model development, accessible to scientists without specialized programming skills. Although static microsimulation models are established tools for policy analysis, dynamic microsimulation has yet to find its way into the methodological toolbox of mainstream social scientists-but the prospects are promising. CC : 52161; 521 FD : Simulation; Modèle; Sécurité sociale; Ordinateur; Sciences sociales; Méthodologie; Technologie de pointe; Programmation ED : Simulation; Model; Social Security; Computer; Social sciences; Methodology; State of the art technology; Programming LO : INIST-26903.354000193597780010 200/793 NO : FRANCIS 11-0452507 INIST ET : Modeling the Impact of Taxes and Transfers on Child Poverty in South Africa : Microsimulation AU : WILKINSON (Kate) AF : University of Oxford/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Social science computer review; ISSN 0894-4393; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 29; No. 1; Pp. 127-144; Bibl. 2 p.3/4 LA : Anglais EA : The research described here shows how microsimulation modeling can be used to analyze the impact of tax and transfer policy on the situation of children in South Africa. Given that the government has made explicit legislative commitments to children and that poverty rates are highest for households containing children, it might be expected that children would be a priority in policy reforms. The microsimulation model South African Microsimulation Model (SAMOD) is used to simulate certain policy reforms announced in the 2008 budget, and implemented during 2008, and explore the impact of these reforms on children and other age groups across the income distribution. A budget-neutral policy reform is also considered to determine the extent to which policy could do more to support children without adversely affecting other poor groups. CC : 52164; 52132; 521 FD : Enfant; Pauvreté; Afrique du Sud; Simulation; Modèle; Taxation; Distribution des revenus; Budget ED : Child; Poverty; South Africa; Simulation; Model; Taxation; Income Distribution; Budget LO : INIST-26903.354000193597780080 201/793 NO : FRANCIS 11-0452501 INIST ET : Microsimulation of the Temporary Housing Situation Following an Urban Disaster: Case Study of an Anticipated Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake : Microsimulation AU : SATO (Keiichi) AF : The University of Tokyo/Tokyo/Japon (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Social science computer review; ISSN 0894-4393; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 29; No. 1; Pp. 103-126; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : At present, the expected occurrence of a massive earthquake in the Tokyo metropolitan area is a matter of concern for the Japanese Cabinet Office. In the event of a major urban disaster, it is unclear whether the present policy of housing assistance will work effectively. Microsimulation is a useful research approach to make preliminary proposals for concrete policy issues. To carry out a reliable microsimulation, a household's behavior model was developed using an Internet-based questionnaire system. In addition, the microdata pertaining to rental housing and construction sites of prefabricated housing were generated. Based on these foundational works, a microsimulation model that illustrates the temporary housing situation following an urban disaster was developed. This article discusses (a) the microsimulation outline, (b) the results of calculations, and (c) the issues concerning and ways to enhance the developed model to resolve these issues. CC : 52123; 52169; 521 FD : Tremblement de terre; Japon; Tokyo; Simulation; Modèle; Logement; Anticipation; Questionnaire; Urbanisation ED : Earthquake; Japan; Tokyo; Simulation; Model; Accomodation; Anticipation; Questionnaire; Urbanization LO : INIST-26903.354000193597780070 202/793 NO : FRANCIS 11-0452500 INIST ET : Household Projection and Its Application to Health/Long-Term Care Expenditures in Japan Using INAHSIM-II : Microsimulation AU : FUKAWA (Tetsuo) AF : Institution for Future Welfare/Tokyo/Japon (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Social science computer review; ISSN 0894-4393; Etats-Unis; Da. 2011; Vol. 29; No. 1; Pp. 52-66; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Using a microsimulation model named Integrated Analytical Model for Household Simulation (INAHSIM), the author conducted a household projection in Japan for the period of 2010-2050. INAHSIM-II specifically means that the initial population is created using the INAHSIM model itself. The model produces outputs such as (a) the number of the elderly according to dependency and/or living situations, (b) the relative parents/children ratio taking into account the number of brothers and sisters, and (c) a I-year transition matrix by household type. As an application of the model, a projection of health and long-term care expenditures is made for the years 2010-2050 in Japan. CC : 52163; 521 FD : Dépense; Santé; Japon; Simulation; Modèle; Ménage; Soin médical ED : Expenditures; Health; Japan; Simulation; Model; Household; Health Care LO : INIST-26903.354000193597780040 203/793 NO : FRANCIS 11-0378953 INIST FT : Apports du modèle de microsimulation Arammis: une analyse des effets redistributifs du plafonnement des restes à charge en ambulatoire AU : DEBRAND (Thierry); SORASITH (Christine) AF : Irdes/France (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Questions d'économie de la santé; ISSN 1283-4769; France; Da. 2010; No. 159; Pp. 1-7 LA : Français FA : En France, bien qu'une grande partie des dépenses de santé soit prise en charge par le système d'Assurance maladie obligatoire, d'importants restes à charge - différence entre les dépenses de santé et les remboursements de l'Assurance maladie - peuvent persister. Dans le cadre de la réflexion engagée sur les moyens de limiter ces restes à charge « excessifs », nous avons testé deux types de plafonnement des restes à charge, à partir du modèle de microsimulation Arammis. Nous avons simulé le remplacement du dispositif actuel de remboursement à 100 % des malades en affections de longue durée (ALD) par l'instauration de deux plafonnements appliqués à l'ensemble des assurés (hors bénéficiaires de la CMU) sur les remboursements de leurs dépenses de santé en ambulatoire (hors hôpital et dépassements d'honoraires). Le premier applique un plafond identique à tous; le deuxième établit un plafond en fonction du revenu. L'étude documente, à partir d'un modèle de microsimulation basé sur des données individuelles, deux mécanismes de plafonnements de restes à charge en ne modifiant pas les équilibres financiers de l'Assurance maladie obligatoire. CC : 52163; 521 FD : France; Assurance maladie; Système de santé; Dépense; Remboursement ED : France; Health insurance; Health system; Expenditures; Repayment SD : Seguro de enfermedad LO : INIST-26706.354000194969920010 204/793 NO : FRANCIS 11-0340652 INIST ET : Differences in health between Americans and Western Europeans: Effects on longevity and public finance AU : MICHAUD (Pierre-Carl); GOLDMAN (Dana); LAKDAWALLA (Darius); GAILEY (Adam); YUHUI ZHENG AF : Universite du Quebec a Montréal (UQAM), Canada and RAND Corporation/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); University of Southern California and RAND Corporation/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 3 aut.); RAND Corporation/Etats-Unis (4 aut.); Harvard School of Public Health/Etats-Unis (5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Social science & medicine : (1982); ISSN 0277-9536; Coden SSMDEP; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2011; Vol. 73; No. 2; Pp. 254-263; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : In 1975, 50 year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than most of their Western European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy had fallen behind that of most Western European countries. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily due to real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their Western European peers. We use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Western Europe. The model implies that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Western Europeans could save up to $1.1 trillion in discounted total health expenditures from 2004 to 2050. CC : 760L; 760A01 FD : Etude comparative; Santé publique; Américain; Europe; Européen; Longévité; Finances publiques; Incapacité; Mortalité; Epidémiologie; International; Monde; Etats-Unis; Médecine sociale; Homme FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Comparative study; Public health; American; Europe; European; Longevity; Public finances; Disability; Mortality; Epidemiology; International; World; United States; Social medicine; Human EG : North America; America SD : Estudio comparativo; Salud pública; Americano; Europa; Europeo; Longevidad; Hacienda pública; Incapacidad; Mortalidad; Epidemiología; Internacional; Mundo; Estados Unidos; Medicina social; Hombre LO : INIST-13689.354000509465900090 205/793 NO : FRANCIS 11-0236070 INIST ET : Quantifying the effect of early retirement on the wealth of individuals with depression or other mental illness AU : SCHOFIELD (Deborah J.); SHRESTHA (Rupendra N.); PERCIVAL (Richard); KELLY (Simon J.); PASSEY (Megan E.); CALLANDER (Emily J.) AF : Clinical Trials Centre and School of Public Health, University of Sydney/Australie (1 aut., 2 aut.); University of Canberra/Australie (3 aut., 4 aut.); Northern Rivers University Department of Rural Health, School of Public Health, University of Sydney/Australie (5 aut.); Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney/Australie (6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : British journal of psychiatry : (Print); ISSN 0007-1250; Coden BJPYAJ; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2011; Vol. 198; No. FEV; Pp. 123-128; Bibl. 32 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background In addition to the health burden caused by mental illnesses, these conditions contribute to economic disadvantage because of their impact on labour force participation. Aims To quantify the cost of lost savings and wealth to Australians aged 45-64 who retire from the labour force early because of depression or other mental illness. Method Cross-sectional analysis of the base population of Health&WealthMOD, a microsimulation model built on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers and STINMOD, an income and savings microsimulation model. Results People who are not part of the labour force because of depression or other mental illness have 78% (95% CI 92.2-37.1) and 93% (95% CI 98.4-70.5) less wealth accumulated respectively, compared with people of the same age, gender and education who are in the labour force with no chronic health condition. People who are out of the labour force as a result of depression or other mental illness are also more likely to have the wealth that they do have in cash assets, rather than higher-growth assets such as superannuation, home equity and other financial investments. Conclusions This lower accumulated wealth is likely to result in lower living standards for these individuals in the future. This will compound the impact of their condition on their health and quality of life, and put a large financial burden on the state as a result of the need to provide financial assistance for these individuals. CC : 770D03G01 FD : Aspect économique; Etat dépressif; Trouble psychiatrique; Analyse quantitative; Etude transversale; Economie santé; Santé mentale; Environnement social; Australie; Adulte; Personne âgée; Retraite anticipée FG : Océanie; Homme; Trouble de l'humeur; Santé publique ED : Economic aspect; Depression; Mental disorder; Quantitative analysis; Cross sectional study; Health economy; Mental health; Social environment; Australia; Adult; Elderly; Early retirement EG : Oceania; Human; Mood disorder; Public health SD : Aspecto económico; Estado depresivo; Trastorno psiquiátrico; Análisis cuantitativo; Estudio transversal; Economía salud; Salud mental; Contexto social; Australia; Adulto; Anciano; Jubilación anticipada LO : INIST-3999.354000193655280090 206/793 NO : FRANCIS 11-0071858 INIST ET : Measuring and decomposing socioeconomic inequality in healthcare delivery: A microsimulation approach with application to the Palestinian conflict-affected fragile setting AU : ABU-ZAINEH (Mohammad); MATARIA (Awad); MOATTI (Jean-Paul); VENTELOU (Bruno) AF : INSERM-IRD-University of the Mediterranean, Economics & Social Sciences, Health Care Systems & Societies, SE4S-Research Unit 912/Marseille/France (1 aut.); Institute of Community and Public Health (ICPH), Birzeit University/Birzeit/PSE (1 aut.); World Health Organization, Eastern-Mediterranean Regional Office, Unit of Health Economics; Health Care Financing, Division of Health Systems and Services Delivery (EMRO, DHS/HEC)/Cairo/Egypte (2 aut.); University of the Mediterranean, INSERM-IRD-SE4S/Research Unit U912/Marseille/France (3 aut., 4 aut.); National Center for Scientific Research, Research Group in Quantitative Economics of Aix-Marseille (CNRS-GREQAM-IDEP)/Marseille/France (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Social science & medicine : (1982); ISSN 0277-9536; Coden SSMDEP; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2011; Vol. 72; No. 2; Pp. 133-141; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : Socioeconomic-related inequalities in healthcare delivery have been extensively studied in developed countries, using standard linear models of decomposition. This paper seeks to assess equity in healthcare delivery in the particular context of the occupied Palestinian territory: the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, using a new method of decomposition based on microsimulations. Besides avoiding the 'unavoidable price' of linearity restriction that is imposed by the standard methods of decomposition, the microsimulation-based decomposition enables to circumvent the potentially contentious role of heterogeneity in behaviours and to better disentangle the various sources driving inequality in healthcare utilisation. Results suggest that the worse-off do have a disproportinately greater need for all levels of care. However with the exception of primary-level, utilisation of all levels of care appears to be significantly higher for the better-off. The microsimulation method has made it possible to identify the contributions of factors driving such pro-rich patterns. While much of the inequality in utilisation appears to be caused by the prevailing socioeconomic inequalities, detailed analysis attributes a non-trivial part (circa 30% of inequalities) to heterogeneity in healthcare-seeking behaviours across socioeconomic groups of the population. Several policy recommendations for improving equity in healthcare delivery in the occupied Palestinian territory are proposed. CC : 760L FD : Socioéconomie; Aspect économique; Aspect social; Santé publique; Statut socioéconomique; Inégalité; Soin; Palestine; Conflit; Service santé; Modèle; Concentration; Indice; Equité; Pays en développement; Médecine sociale; Homme FG : Asie ED : Socioeconomics; Economic aspect; Social aspect; Public health; Socioeconomic status; Inequality; Care; Palestine; Conflict; Health service; Models; Concentration; Index; Equity; Developing countries; Social medicine; Human EG : Asia SD : Socioeconomía; Aspecto económico; Aspecto social; Salud pública; Estatuto socioeconómico; Desigualdad; Cuidado; Palestina; Conflicto; Servicio sanidad; Modelo; Concentración; Indice; Equidad; Países en desarrollo; Medicina social; Hombre LO : INIST-13689.354000193577800030 207/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0509963 INIST ET : Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination and screening in Spain AU : DIAZ (Mireia); DE SANJOSE (Silvia); ORTENDAHL (Jesse); O'SHEA (Meredith); GOLDIE (Sue J.); BOSCH (F. Xavier); KIM (Jane J.) AF : Unit of Infections and Cancer (UNIC), Cancer Epidemiology Research Program, Catalan Institute of Oncology (ICO), IDIBELL, Av. Gran Via 199-203/08907 L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona/Espagne (1 aut., 2 aut., 6 aut.); Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard School of Public Health, 718 Huntington Avenue, 2nd Floor/Boston, MA 02115/Etats-Unis (3 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut., 7 aut.); CIBER en Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP)/Barcelona/Espagne (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : European journal of cancer : (1990); ISSN 0959-8049; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2010; Vol. 46; No. 16; Pp. 2973-2985; Bibl. 46 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: In Spain, prophylactic vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 is being offered free-of-charge to one birth cohort of girls aged 11-14. Screening is opportunistic (annual/biannual) contributing to social and geographical disparities. Methods: A multi-HPV-type microsimulation model was calibrated to epidemiologic data from Spain utilising likelihood-based methods to assess the health and economic impact of adding HPV vaccination to cervical cancer screening. Strategies included (1) screening alone of women over age 25, varying frequency (every 1-5 years) and test (cytology, HPV DNA testing); (2) HPV vaccination of 11-year-old girls combined with screening. Outcomes included lifetime cancer risk, life expectancy, lifetime costs, number of clinical procedures and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Results: After the introduction of HPV vaccination, screening will need to continue, and strategies that incorporated HPV testing are more effective and cost-effective than those with cytology alone. For vaccinated girls, 5-year organised cytology with HPV testing as triage from ages 30 to 65 costs 24,350<euro sign> per year of life saved (YLS), assuming life-long vaccine immunity against HPV-16/18 by 3 doses with 90% coverage. Unvaccinated girls would benefit from organised cytology screening with HPV testing as triage; 5-year screening from ages 30 to 65 costs 16,060<euro sign>/YLS and 4-year screening from ages 30 to 85 costs 38,250<euro sign>/ YLS. Interventions would be cost-effective depending on the cost-effectiveness threshold and the vaccine price. Conclusions: In Spain, inequitable coverage and overuse of cytology make screening programmes inefficient. If high vaccination coverage among pre-adolescent girls is achieved, organised cytology screening with HPV triage starting at ages 30 to at least 65 every 4-5 years represents the best balance between costs and benefits. CC : 002B02; 002B04 FD : Cancer du col de l'utérus; Analyse coût efficacité; Economie santé; Papillomavirus humain; Virose; Vaccination; Prévention; Dépistage; Espagne; Cancérologie FG : Papillomavirus; Papovaviridae; Virus; Infection; Europe; Pathologie de l'appareil génital femelle; Pathologie du col de l'utérus; Tumeur maligne; Cancer ED : Cervical cancer; Cost efficiency analysis; Health economy; Human papillomavirus; Viral disease; Vaccination; Prevention; Medical screening; Spain; Cancerology EG : Papillomavirus; Papovaviridae; Virus; Infection; Europe; Female genital diseases; Uterine cervix diseases; Malignant tumor; Cancer SD : Cáncer de cuello del útero; Análisis costo eficacia; Economía salud; Human papillomavirus; Virosis; Vacunación; Prevención; Descubrimiento; España; Cancerología LO : INIST-12648.354000193941710150 208/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0489351 INIST ET : Microscopic simulation of transit operations: policy studies with the MISTRANSIT application programming interface AU : FERNANDEZ (Rodrigo); CORTES (Cristian E.); BURGOS (Vanessa) AF : Faculty of Engineering, Universidad de los Andes, Av. San Carlos de Apoquindo 2200/Las Condes, Santiago/Chili (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile/Santiago/Chili (2 aut.); R&Q Ingenieria S.A./Santiago/Chili (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation planning and technology : (Print); ISSN 0308-1060; Coden TPLTAK; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2010; Vol. 33; No. 2; Pp. 157-176; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : Microscopic traffic simulators are the most advanced tools for representing the movement of vehicles on a transport network. However, the energy spent in traffic microsimulation has been mainly oriented to cars. Little interest has been devoted to more sophisticated models for simulating transit systems. Commercial software has some options to incorporate the operation of transit vehicles, but they are insufficient to properly consider a real public transport system. This paper develops an Application Programming Interface, called MIcroscopic Simulation of TRANSIT (MISTRANSIT), using the commercial microsimulator PARAllel MICroscopic Simulation. MISTRANSIT makes advances in three ways: public transport vehicles can have new characteristics; passengers are incorporated and traced as individual objects; and specific models represent the interaction between passengers and vehicles at stops. This paper presents the modelling approach as well as various experiments to illustrate the feasibility of MISTRANSIT for studying policy operations of transit systems. CC : 001D15B; 001D15C FD : Gestion trafic; Trafic routier; Arrêt autobus; Modèle simulation; Modèle microscopique; Transport public; Politique transport; Application; Programmation; Expérimentation; Exemple ED : Traffic management; Road traffic; Bus stop; Simulation model; Microscopic model; Public transportation; Transportation policy; Application; Programming; Experimentation; Example SD : Gestión tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Parada autobus; Modelo simulación; Modelo microscópico; Transporte público; Política transporte; Aplicación; Programación; Experimentación; Ejemplo LO : INIST-15632.354000181569510030 209/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0488667 INIST ET : Microsimulation and clinical outcomes analysis support a lower age threshold for use of biological valves AU : STOICAL (Serban); GOLDSMITH (Kimberley); DEMIRIS (Nikolaos); PUNJABI (Prakash); BERG (Geoffrey); SHARPLES (Linda); LARGE (Stephen) AF : Bristol Royal Children's Hospital/Bristol/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.); Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit/Cambridge/Royaume-Uni (2 aut., 3 aut., 6 aut.); Hammersmith Hospital/London/Royaume-Uni (4 aut.); Golden Jubilee National Hospital/Glasgow/Royaume-Uni (5 aut.); Papworth Hospital/Cambridge/Royaume-Uni (7 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Heart : (London 1996); ISSN 1355-6037; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2010; Vol. 96; No. 21; Pp. 1730-1736; Bibl. 14 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Objective To characterise contemporary results of aortic valve replacement in relation to type of prosthesis and subsequent competing hazards. Methods 5470 procedures in 5433 consecutive patients with aortic valve replacement ± coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) were studied. Microsimulation of survival and valve-related outcomes was performed based on meta-analysis and patient data inputs, with separate models for age, gender and CABG. Survival was validated against the UK Heart Valve Registry. Results Patient survival at 1, 5 and 10 years was 90%, 78% and 57%, respectively. The crossover points at which bioprostheses and mechanical prostheses conferred similar life expectancy (LE) was 59 years for men and women (no significant difference between prosthesis types between the ages of 56 and 69 for men, and 58 an 63 for women). The improvement in event-free LE for mechanical valves was greater at younger ages with a crossover point of 66 years for men and 67 years for women. Long-term survival was independently influenced by age, male gender and concomitant CABG, but not by type of prosthesis. In bioprostheses the most common long-term occurrence was structural deterioration. For men aged 55, 65 and 75 at initial operation it had a lifetime incidence of 50%, 30% and 13%, respectively. The simulation output showed excellent agreement with registry data. Conclusion Bioprostheses can be implanted selectively in patients as young as 56 without significant adverse effects on life expectancy, although event-free life expectancy remains significantly lower with bioprostheses up to age of implant of 63. CC : 002B12 FD : Pronostic; Analyse; Support; Age; Seuil; Utilisation; Soupape; Appareil circulatoire; Cardiologie ED : Prognosis; Analysis; Support; Age; Threshold; Use; Valve; Circulatory system; Cardiology SD : Pronóstico; Análisis; Soporte; Edad; Umbral; Uso; Válvula; Aparato circulatorio; Cardiología LO : INIST-3995.354000192475020090 210/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0477316 INIST ET : Modelling passengers, buses and stops in traffic microsimulation: review and extensions AU : CORTES (Cristián E.); BURGOS (Vanessa); FERNANDEZ (Rodrigo) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, Casilla 228-3/Santiago/Chili (1 aut., 2 aut.); Faculty of Engineering, Universidad de Los Andes, San Carlos de Apoquindo 2200/Santiago/Chili (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of advanced transportation; ISSN 0197-6729; Coden JATRDC; Canada; Da. 2010; Vol. 44; No. 2; Pp. 72-88; Bibl. 38 ref. LA : Anglais EA : In the last decade, significant research efforts and technology have been dedicated to the development of microsimulation tools for a better representation of traffic systems. As a result, several commercial packages appeared and they are used nowadays in the detailed modelling of different transportation systems and operations for specific project evaluations and local designs, mostly within the urban context. After reviewing the specialized literature, we realized that most of these microsimulation tools are oriented to the movement of cars, leaving the public transportation systems as a complement, just for a realistic representation of the transportation system as a whole, but always oriented to simulate cars. In this paper, the objective is to provide guidelines on how to incorporate the necessary entities and components for a proper simulation of public transport systems in a microsimulation environment. Thus, the different approaches to simulate transit systems at a microlevel are discussed, highlighting the necessity of including stops, passengers and transit vehicles explicitly as entities within the microsimulation environment, for modelling transfer operations, control strategies, etc. Several examples are then provided to quantify the impact of such representations, for different cases and potential simulation platforms. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B; 001D15A FD : Transport routier; Transport voyageur; Transport public; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Arrêt autobus; Stratégie; Chili; Description système; Outil logiciel FG : Amérique du Sud; Amérique ED : Road transportation; Passenger transportation; Public transportation; Modeling; Simulation model; Bus stop; Strategy; Chile; System description; Software tool EG : South America; America SD : Transporte por carretera; Transporte pasajero; Transporte público; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Parada autobus; Estrategia; Chile; Descripción sistema; Herramienta software LO : INIST-15009.354000182147190020 211/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0456970 INIST ET : Cost-Effectiveness of Computed Tomographic Colonography Screening for Colorectal Cancer in the Medicare Population AU : KNUDSEN (Amy B.); LANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris); RUTTER (Carolyn M.); SAVARINO (James E.); VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein); KUNTZ (Karen M.); ZAUBER (Ann G.) AF : Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital/Boston, MA/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (2 aut., 5 aut.); Biostatistics Unit/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Group Health Research Institute/Seattle, WA/Etats-Unis (4 aut.); Division of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota/Minneapolis, MN/Etats-Unis (6 aut.); Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center/New York, NY/Etats-Unis (7 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of the National Cancer Institute; ISSN 0027-8874; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; Vol. 102; No. 16; Pp. 1238-1252; Bibl. 65 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) considered whether to reimburse computed tomographic colonography (CTC) for colorectal cancer screening of Medicare enrollees. To help inform its decision, we evaluated the reimbursement rate at which CTC screening could be cost-effective compared with the colorectal cancer screening tests that are currently reimbursed by CMS and are included in most colorectal cancer screening guidelines, namely annual fecal occult blood test (FOBT), flexible sigmoidoscopy every 5 years, flexible sigmoidoscopy every 5 years in conjunction with annual FOBT, and colonoscopy every 10 years. Methods We used three independently developed microsimulation models to assess the health outcomes and costs associated with CTC screening and with currently reimbursed colorectal cancer screening tests among the average-risk Medicare population. We assumed that CTC was performed every 5 years (using test characteristics from either a Department of Defense CTC study or the National CTC Trial) and that individuals with findings of 6 mm or larger were referred to colonoscopy. We computed incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for the currently reimbursed screening tests and calculated the maximum cost per scan (ie, the threshold cost) for the CTC strategy to lie on the efficient frontier. Sensitivity analyses were performed on key parameters and assumptions. Results Assuming perfect adherence with all tests, the undiscounted number life-years gained from CTC screening ranged from 143 to 178 per 1000 65-year-olds, which was slightly less than the number of life-years gained from 10-yearly colonoscopy (152-185 per 1000 65-year-olds) and comparable to that from 5-yearly sigmoidoscopy with annual FOBT (149-177 per 1000 65-year-olds). If CTC screening was reimbursed at $488 per scan (slightly less than the reimbursement for a colonoscopy without polypectomy), it would be the most costly strategy. CTC screening could be cost-effective at $108-$205 per scan, depending on the microsimulation model used. Sensitivity analyses showed that if relative adherence to CTC screening was 25% higher than adherence to other tests, it could be cost-effective if reimbursed at $488 per scan. Conclusions CTC could be a cost-effective option for colorectal cancer screening among Medicare enrollees if the reimbursement rate per scan is substantially less than that for colonoscopy or if a large proportion of otherwise unscreened persons were to undergo screening by CTC. CC : 002B04; 002B13B01 FD : Cancer colorectal; Analyse coût efficacité; Economie santé; Dépistage; Assurance maladie; Homme; Cancérologie; Coloscopie virtuelle FG : Imagerie médicale; Radiodiagnostic; Tomodensitométrie; Pathologie de l'appareil digestif; Pathologie du côlon; Pathologie de l'intestin; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Pathologie du rectum ED : Colorectal cancer; Cost efficiency analysis; Health economy; Medical screening; Health insurance; Human; Cancerology; Virtual colonoscopy EG : Medical imagery; Radiodiagnosis; Computerized axial tomography; Digestive diseases; Colonic disease; Intestinal disease; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Rectal disease SD : Cancer de colon y recto; Análisis costo eficacia; Economía salud; Descubrimiento; Seguro enfermedad; Hombre; Cancerología LO : INIST-3364.354000194245310040 212/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0439232 INIST ET : Calibration of Microsimulation Models for Nonlane-Based Heterogeneous Traffic at Signalized Intersections AU : MATHEW (Tom V.); RADHAKRISHNAN (Padmakumar); VERMA (Ashish) AF : Transportation Systems Engineering, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay/Powai, Mumbai 400 076/Inde (1 aut., 2 aut.); Dept. of Civil Engineering, and Center for Infrastructure, Sustainable Transportation, and Urban Planning (CiSTUP), Indian Institute of Science (IISc)/Bangalore, Karnataka/Inde (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of urban planning and development; ISSN 0733-9488; Coden JUPDDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; Vol. 136; No. 1; Pp. 59-66; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : A significant part of the world, especially in most of the Asian countries, has heterogeneous traffic characterized by diverse vehicles, changing composition, lack of lane discipline, etc., resulting in a very complex behavior. Microsimulation is, therefore, highly suited to model such traffic. However, these models need to be calibrated before their application. Although several studies have been reported in the literature on the methodologies for calibration, all of them have focused on homogeneous traffic conditions having good lane discipline. In highly heterogeneous traffic, several other factors such as traffic composition and static and dynamic characteristics o vehicles have to be considered in the calibration process. Moreover, side-by-side stacking of vehicles across the road width occurring in the absence of lane discipline should also be modeled. Hence, a methodology for representing nonlane-based driving behavior and calibrating a microsimulation model for highly heterogeneous traffic at signalized intersection is proposed. Calibration parameters were identified using sensitivity analysis, and the optimum values for these parameters were obtained by minimizing the error between the simulated and field delay using genetic algorithm. The proposed methodology is illustrated using Verkehr in Staedten simulation, a widely used psychophysical car-following model based microsimulation software. Signalized intersections having diverse traffic and geometric characteristics from two cities of India are taken as a case study. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Intersection; Feu signalisation; Modèle simulation; Etalonnage; Hétérogénéité ;; Optimisation; Retard; Méthodologie ED : Road traffic; Intersection; Traffic lights; Simulation model; Calibration; Heterogeneity; Optimization; Delay; Methodology SD : Tráfico carretera; Intersección; Semáforo; Modelo simulación; Contraste; Heterogeneidad; Optimización; Retraso; Metodología LO : INIST-572T.354000190053550070 213/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0439224 INIST ET : Microsimulation Study of the Effect of Exclusive Bus Lanes on Heterogeneous Traffic Flow AU : THAMIZH ARASAN (V.); VEDAGIRI (P.); VERMA (Ashish) AF : Transportation Engineering Div., Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras/Chennai 600 036/Inde (1 aut.); Transportation Engineering Div., Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras/Chennai 600 036/Inde (2 aut.); Dept. of Civil Engineering, and Center for Infrastructure, Sustainable Transportation, and Urban Planning (CiSTUP), Indian Institute of Science (IISc)/Bangalore, Karnataka/Inde (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of urban planning and development; ISSN 0733-9488; Coden JUPDDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; Vol. 136; No. 1; Pp. 50-58; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper is concerned with modification and validation of a recently developed microsimulation model of heterogeneous traffic flow and application of the model to study the impact of provision of reserved bus lanes on urban roads. The impact of introduction of an exclusive bus lane is measured in terms of reduction in speed of other categories of motor vehicles, due to the consequent reduction in road space, over a wide range of traffic volume. The main finding of this paper is that if an exclusive bus lane is provided under highly heterogeneous traffic conditions (prevailing in Indian cities), then the maximum permissible volume to capacity ratio that will ensure a level of service of C for the traffic stream comprising all the motor vehicles, except the buses, in a typical eight lane divided urban road (14.5-m-wide road space per direction) is about 0.62. Through this study, a framework for justification of providing exclusive bus lane has also been defined. CC : 001D15C FD : Transport public; Autobus; Ecoulement trafic; Vitesse déplacement; Durée trajet; Modèle simulation; Gestion trafic; Inde; Trafic routier; Voie réservée; Application FG : Asie ED : Public transportation; Bus; Traffic flow; Speed; Travel time; Simulation model; Traffic management; India; Road traffic; Priority lane; Application EG : Asia SD : Transporte público; Autobus; Flujo tráfico; Velocidad desplazamiento; Duración trayecto; Modelo simulación; Gestión tráfico; India; Tráfico carretera; Vía prioritaria; Aplicación LO : INIST-572T.354000190053550060 214/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0431831 INIST ET : Cost-effectiveness of multifaceted evidence implementation programs for the prevention of glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis AU : BEUKELMAN (T.); SAAG (K. G.); CURTIS (J. R.); KILGORE (M. L.); PISU (M.) AF : University of Alabama at Birmingham Deep South Musculoskeletal Center for Education and Research on Therapeutics/Birmingham, AL/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut.); The University of Alabama at Birmingham, 1530 3rd Avenue South MT 628/Birmingham, AL 35294-4410/Etats-Unis (5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Osteoporosis international; ISSN 0937-941X; Allemagne; Da. 2010; Vol. 21; No. 9; Pp. 1573-1584; Bibl. 60 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Summary Using a computer simulation model, we determined that an intervention aimed at improving the management of glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis is likely to be cost-effective to third-party health insurers only if it focuses on individuals with very high fracture risk and the proportion of prescriptions for generic bisphosphonates increases substantially. Introduction The purpose of this study is to determine whether an evidence implementation program (intervention) focused on increasing appropriate management of glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis (GIOP) might be cost-effective compared with current practice (no intervention) from the perspective of a third-party health insurer. Methods We developed a Markov microsimulation model to determine the cost-effectiveness of the intervention. The hypothetical patient cohort was of current chronic glucocorticoid users 50-65 years old and 70% female. Model parameters were derived from published literature, and sensitivity analyses were performed. Results The intervention resulted in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of $298,000 per quality adjusted life year (QALY) and $206,000 per hip fracture averted. If the cohort's baseline risk of fracture was increased by 50% (10-year cumulative incidence of hip fracture of 14%), the ICERs improved significantly: $105,000 per QALY and $137,000 per hip fracture averted. The ICERs improved significantly if the proportion of prescriptions for generic bisphosphonates was increased to 75%, with $113,000 per QALY and $77,900 per hip fracture averted. Conclusions Evidence implementation programs for the management of GIOP are likely to be cost-effective to third-party health insurers only if they are targeted at individuals with a very high risk of fracture and the proportion of prescriptions for less expensive generic bisphosphonates increases substantially. CC : 002B15A; 002B02L FD : Coût; Implémentation; Prévention; Glucocorticoïde; Ostéoporose; Bisphosphonates; Analyse avantage coût; Rhumatologie; Antiostéoporotique; Antiostéoclastique FG : Economie santé; Pathologie du système ostéoarticulaire; Santé publique ED : Costs; Implementation; Prevention; Glucocorticoid; Osteoporosis; Bisphosphonates; Cost benefit analysis; Rheumatology; Antiosteoporotic; Antiosteoclastic agent EG : Health economy; Diseases of the osteoarticular system; Public health SD : Coste; Implementación; Prevención; Glucocorticoide; Osteoporosis; Bisfosfonatos; Análisis coste beneficio; Reumatología; Antiosteoporótico; Antiosteoclástica LO : INIST-22974.354000194241270130 215/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0412046 INIST ET : A Decision-Analytic Evaluation of the Cost-Effectiveness of Family History-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening Programs AU : RAMSEY (Scott D.); WILSCHUT (Janneke); BOER (Rob); VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein) AF : Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center/Seattle, Washington/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); University of Washington/Seattle, Washington/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Erasmus University/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : The American journal of gastroenterology; ISSN 0002-9270; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2010; Vol. 105; No. 8; Pp. 1861-1869; Bibl. 47 ref. LA : Anglais EA : OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of family history screening (FHS) for colorectal cancer (CRC) susceptibility at age 40 with early screening of those with increased risk. METHODS: The cost-effectiveness of several family history-based screening programs was estimated with a validated microsimulation model, using data from the SEER cancer registry, life tables, medicare records, and published data. Familial cancer syndromes were excluded. Screening programs evaluated included (i) colonoscopy screening every 10 years starting at age 50 (no family history assessment) ; (ii) colonoscopy every 10 years from age 40 for persons with a family history; (iii) colonoscopy every 5 years from age 50 for those with a family history; and (iv) colonoscopy every 5 years from age 40 for persons with a family history. In each FHS scenario, persons without a family history are screened with colonoscopy at age 50, then every 10 years to age 80. RESULTS: Compared with colonoscopy screening of all persons from age 50, the cost-effectiveness of the family history-based screening programs varied from $18,000-$51,000 per life year (LY) gained. Screening family history cases every 5 years from age 40 is more cost-effective than screening every 10 years from age 40. Reducing screening frequency for those without a family history lowers program expenditures substantially at a modest loss of LYs. The results are sensitive to the CRC risk difference between positive and negative family histories. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of CRC FHS guidelines varies widely. Economic issues should be considered before implementing family history-directed screening programs. CC : 002B13B01 FD : Cancer colorectal; Coût; Etude familiale; Dépistage; Gastroentérologie FG : Economie santé; Pathologie de l'appareil digestif; Pathologie du côlon; Pathologie de l'intestin; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Pathologie du rectum; Santé publique ED : Colorectal cancer; Costs; Family study; Medical screening; Gastroenterology EG : Health economy; Digestive diseases; Colonic disease; Intestinal disease; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Rectal disease; Public health SD : Cancer de colon y recto; Coste; Estudio familiar; Descubrimiento; Gastroenterología LO : INIST-11062.354000194170970220 216/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0403950 INIST ET : An Evidence-Based Microsimulation Model for Colorectal Cancer: Validation and Application AU : RUTTER (Carolyn M.); SAVARINO (James E.) AF : Biostatistics Unit, Group Health Research Institute/Seattle, Washington/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); University of Washington, School of Public Health, Department of Biostatistics/Seattle, Washington/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention; ISSN 1055-9965; Coden CEBPE4; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; Vol. 19; No. 8; Pp. 1992-2002; Bibl. 38 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: The Colorectal Cancer Simulated Population model for Incidence and Natural history (CRC-SPIN) is a new microsimulation model for the natural history of colorectal cancer that can be used for comparative effectiveness studies of colorectal cancer screening modalities. Methods: CRC-SPIN simulates individual event histories associated with colorectal cancer, based on the adenoma-carcinoma sequence: adenoma initiation and growth, development of preclinical invasive colorectal cancer, development of clinically detectable colorectal cancer, death from colorectal cancer, and death from other causes. We present the CRC-SPIN structure and parameters, data used for model calibration, and model validation. We also provide basic model outputs to further describe CRC-SPIN, including annual transition probabilities between various disease states and dwell times. We conclude with a simple application that predicts the impact of a one-time colonoscopy at age 50 on the incidence of colorectal cancer assuming three different operating characteristics for colonoscopy. Results: CRC-SPIN provides good prediction of both the calibration and the validation data. Using CRC-SPIN, we predict that a one-time colonoscopy greatly reduces colorectal cancer incidence over the subsequent 35 years. Conclusions: CRC-SPIN is a valuable new tool for combining expert opinion with observational and experimental results to predict the comparative effectiveness of alternative colorectal cancer screening modalities. Impact: Microsimulation models such as CRC-SPIN can serve as a bridge between screening and treatment studies and health policy decisions by predicting the comparative effectiveness of different interventions. As such, it is critical to publish model descriptions that provide insight into underlying assumptions along with validation studies showing model performance. CC : 002B04; 002B13B01 FD : Cancer colorectal; Médecine factuelle; Modèle; Validation test; Cancérologie FG : Pratique basée sur des preuves; Pathologie de l'appareil digestif; Pathologie du côlon; Pathologie de l'intestin; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Pathologie du rectum ED : Colorectal cancer; Evidence-based medicine; Models; Test validation; Cancerology EG : Evidence-based practice; Digestive diseases; Colonic disease; Intestinal disease; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Rectal disease SD : Cancer de colon y recto; Medicina basada en pruebas; Modelo; Validación prueba; Cancerología LO : INIST-26637.354000194183010130 217/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0386927 INIST ET : Expanding access to HAART: a cost-effective approach for treating and preventing HIV AU : JOHNSTON (Karissa M.); LEVY (Adrian R.); LIMA (Viviane D.); HOGG (Robert S.); TYNDALL (Mark W.); GUSTAFSON (Paul); BRIGGS (Andrew); MONTANER (Julio S.) AF : School of Population and Public Health, University of British ColumbiaVancouver/British Columbia/Canada (1 aut.); Community Health & Epidemiology, Dalhousie University/Halifax, Nova Scotia/Canada (2 aut.); British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/ AIDS Research/Vancouver, British Columbia/Canada (3 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut., 8 aut.); Department of Statistics, University of British Columbia/Vancouver, British Columbia/Canada (6 aut.); Public Health and Health Policy, University of Glasgow/Glasgow, Scotland/Royaume-Uni (7 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : AIDS : (London); ISSN 0269-9370; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; Vol. 24; No. 12; Pp. 1929-1935; Bibl. 42 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Objective: HIV continues to present a substantial global health burden. Given the high direct medical costs associated with the disease, prevention of new transmission is an important element in limiting economic burden. In addition to providing therapeutic benefit, treatment with HAART has potential to prevent transmission of HIV. The objective in this study was to perform an economic evaluation of the incremental net benefit associated with an intervention to expand treatment with HAART in British Columbia, Canada. Design: A mathematical model describing transmission of HIV, integrated with a microsimulation model describing the clinical and economic course of HIV. Methods: The primary outcome was the incremental net benefit of expanding treatment with HAART from 50 to 75% of clinically eligible individuals in British Columbia, assuming a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$ 50000 per quality-adjusted life year. Direct medical costs included were antiretroviral and nonantiretroviral medications, hospitalizations, physician visits, and laboratory tests. The mathematical and microsimulation models were based on patient characteristics observed in British Columbia. Longitudinal data described health services utilization, clinical progression, and survival for all individuals receiving treatment for HIV in British Columbia. Results: Over 30 years, the HAART expansion scenario was associated with a net benefit of US$ 900 million (95% confidence interval US$ 493 million to 1.45 billion). Conclusion: Increasing the HAART treatment rate from 50 to 75% of clinically eligible individuals in British Columbia appears to be a cost-effective strategy based on this model. These cost-effectiveness results are consistent with public health objectives: all individuals who are eligible for an established life-saving treatment should receive it. CC : 002B05C02D; 002B02S05; 002B06D01 FD : SIDA; Chimiothérapie; Antiviral; Accessibilité; Coût; Virus immunodéficience humaine; Prévention; Modèle mathématique; Protocole HAART FG : Virose; Infection; Traitement; Lentivirus; Retroviridae; Virus; Economie santé; Immunodéficit; Immunopathologie; Santé publique ED : AIDS; Chemotherapy; Antiviral; Accessibility; Costs; Human immunodeficiency virus; Prevention; Mathematical model EG : Viral disease; Infection; Treatment; Lentivirus; Retroviridae; Virus; Health economy; Immune deficiency; Immunopathology; Public health SD : SIDA; Quimioterapia; Antiviral; Accesibilidad; Coste; Human immunodeficiency virus; Prevención; Modelo matemático LO : INIST-22094.354000193920920150 218/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0364559 INIST ET : The Increased Cost of Medical Services for People Diagnosed With Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma: A Decision Analytic Approach AU : KYMES (Steven M.); PLOTZKE (Michael R.); LI (Jim Z.); NICHOL (Michael B.); WU (Joanne); FAIN (Joel) AF : Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, Washington University School of Medicine/St. Louis, Missouri/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Division of Economics, Washington University School of Medicine/St. Louis, Missouri/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Center for Health Policy, Washington University School of Medicine/St. Louis, Missouri/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Abt Associates, Inc/Cambridge, Massachusetts/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Global Outcomes Research, Pfizer, Inc/San Diego, California/Etats-Unis (3 aut., 6 aut.); Pharmaceutical Economics and Policy, University of Southern California School of Pharmacy/Los Angeles, California/Etats-Unis (4 aut., 5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : American journal of ophthalmology; ISSN 0002-9394; Coden AJOPAA; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; Vol. 150; No. 1; Pp. 74-81; Bibl. 32 ref. LA : Anglais EA : • PURPOSE: Glaucoma accounts for more than 11 % of all cases of blindness in the United States, but there have been few studies of economic impact. We examine incremental cost of primary open-angle glaucoma considering both visual and nonvisual medical costs over a lifetime of glaucoma. • DESIGN: A decision analytic approach taking the pay-or's perspective with microsimulation estimation. • METHODS: We constructed a Markov model to replicate health events over the remaining lifetime of someone newly diagnosed with glaucoma. Costs of this group were compared with those estimated for a control group without glaucoma. The cost of management of glaucoma (including medications) before the onset of visual impairment was not considered. The model was populated with probability data estimated from Medicare claims data ( 1999 through 2005). Cost of nonocular medications and nursing home use was estimated from California Medicare claims, and all other costs were estimated from Medicare claims data. • RESULTS: We found modest differences in the incidence of comorbid conditions and health service use between people with glaucoma and the control group. Over their expected lifetime, the cost of care for people with primary open-angle glaucoma was higher than that of people without primary open-angle glaucoma by $1688 or approximately $137 per year. • CONCLUSIONS: Among Medicare beneficiaries, glaucoma diagnosis not found to be associated with significant risk of comorbidities before development of visual impairment. Further study is necessary to consider the impact of glaucoma on quality of life, as well as aspects of physical and visual function not captured in this claims-based analysis. CC : 002B09N; 002B09J FD : Glaucome à angle ouvert; Coût; Economie santé; Médecine; Diagnostic; Primaire; Voie abord; Ophtalmologie FG : Pathologie de l'oeil ED : Open angle glaucoma; Costs; Health economy; Medicine; Diagnosis; Primary; Surgical approach; Ophthalmology EG : Eye disease SD : Glaucoma ángulo abierto; Coste; Economía salud; Medicina; Diagnóstico; Primario; Vía abordaje; Oftalmología LO : INIST-2012.354000194718960140 219/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0341532 INIST ET : Potential cost-effectiveness of denosumab for the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporotic women AU : HILIGSMANN (Mickaël); REGINSTER (Jean-Yves) AF : HEC-ULg Management School, University of Liège/Liège/Belgique (1 aut.); Department of Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics, University of Liège/Liège/Belgique (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Bone : (New York, NY); ISSN 8756-3282; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; Vol. 47; No. 1; Pp. 34-40; Bibl. 52 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Denosumab has recently been shown to be safe and to significantly reduce the risk of vertebral, hip and non-vertebral fractures in the &dquot;Fracture REduction Evaluation of Denosumab in Osteoporosis every 6 Months&dquot; (FREEDOM) Trial. Besides the clinical profile of a new drug, it becomes increasingly important to assess whether the drug represents good value for money. This study aims to examine the potential cost-effectiveness of denosumab in the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporotic women. An updated version of a validated Markov microsimulation model was used to estimate the cost (<euro sign>2009) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained of a 3-year denosumab treatment compared with no treatment. The model was populated with cost and epidemiological data for Belgium from a health-care perspective and the base-case population was defined from the FREEDOM Trial. The effect of denosumab after treatment cessation was conservatively assumed to decline linearly over 1 year. Uncertainty was investigated using one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. In particular, additional analyses were performed in populations (over 60 years) where osteoporosis medications are currently reimbursed in many European countries, i.e. with bone mineral density (BMD) T-score≤-2.5 or prevalent vertebral fracture. In the base-case analysis, the cost per QALY gained of denosumab compared with no treatment was estimated at <euro sign>28,441. This value decreased to <euro sign>15,532 and to <euro sign>11,603 for women with a BMD T-score of - 2.5 or prevalent vertebral fracture, respectively. Additional analyses showed that the cost-effectiveness of denosumab fall below commonly accepted threshold of <euro sign>30,000 per QALY gained for women with a BMD T-score ≤-2.5 or prevalent vertebral fracture, over the entire age range examined (60-80 years). The results were robust under a wide range of plausible assumptions. In conclusion, this study suggests, on the basis of currently available data, that denosumab is cost-effective compared with no treatment for postmenopausal Belgian women with low bone mass and who are similar to patients included in the FREEDOM Trial. In addition, denosumab was found to be cost-effective in population currently reimbursed in Europe with T-score ≤-2.5 or prevalent vertebral fracture, aged 60 years and above. Additional data are needed on the relative cost-effectiveness compared with other anti-osteoporotic agents and on the long-term safety of denosumab. CC : 002A16; 002B15A; 002B02Q FD : Ostéoporose; Dénosumab; Coût; Traitement; Postménopause; Femme; Morphologie; Immunomodulateur FG : Homme; Economie santé; Pathologie du système ostéoarticulaire; Santé publique ED : Osteoporosis; Denosumab; Costs; Treatment; Postmenopause; Woman; Morphology; Immunomodulator EG : Human; Health economy; Diseases of the osteoarticular system; Public health SD : Osteoporosis; Denosumab; Coste; Tratamiento; Postmenopausia; Mujer; Morfología; Inmunomodulador LO : INIST-19041.354000181785750040 220/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0333077 INIST ET : Simulating Heterogeneous Traffic Flow on Roads with and without Bus Lanes : Transportation Infrastructure Planning, Management, and Finance AU : THAMIZH ARASAN (V.); VEDAGIRI (P.) AF : Transportation Engineering Div., Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras/Chennai 600036/Inde (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of infrastructure systems; ISSN 1076-0342; Coden JITSE4; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; Vol. 15; No. 4; Pp. 305-312; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : Exclusive bus lanes are intended to enhance the level of service of bus transport in terms of speed, reliability, safety, etc. This paper is concerned with application of a newly developed microsimulation technique to study the effect of provision of reserved bus lanes on the flow of nonlane-based heterogeneous traffic on urban roads in India. The aim of the study reported here is to modify and validate a newly developed simulation model of heterogeneous traffic flow using field observed data and to apply the validated model to study the effect of exclusive bus lanes on traffic flow. The effect is measured in terms of the reduction in the speeds of other categories of vehicles due to the possible reduction in the available road space for these vehicles. The results of the study indicate that it is possible to introduce exclusive bus lanes on carefully selected urban roads to enhance the level of service of bus, simultaneously ensuring a satisfactory level of service to the other vehicles on the road. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Ecoulement trafic; Gestion trafic; Modèle simulation; Autobus; Validation; Application ED : Road traffic; Traffic flow; Traffic management; Simulation model; Bus; Validation; Application SD : Tráfico carretera; Flujo tráfico; Gestión tráfico; Modelo simulación; Autobus; Validación; Aplicación LO : INIST-26269.354000186587820060 221/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0311428 INIST ET : The oil stock fluctuations in the United States AU : HAYAT (Aziz); PARESH KUMAR NARAYAN AF : School of Accounting, Economics and Finance Deakin University/VIC 3125/Australie (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Papier de recherche; Niveau analytique SO : Applied energy; ISSN 0306-2619; Coden APENDX; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2010; Vol. 87; No. 1; Pp. 178-184; Bibl. 28 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The goal of this paper is to examine whether the volatility of the growth in the US oil stocks has changed overtime, and if it has then whether or not this change is real. We find that the growth in volatility of oil stocks has declined overtime. We conduct a Monte Carlo simulation exercise to investigate whether this decline is real or an artefact of the growth definition. Our findings support the fact that the decline in growth volatility of oil stocks is an artefact of the growth definition. This is because a data generating process having a unit root with drift has a tendency to grow and thereby pulls the variance of growth down with time. CC : 001D06A01C2B; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Economie pétrolière; Pétrole; Stock; Etats-Unis; Volatilité; Modèle économétrique; Modélisation; Méthode Monte Carlo; Racine unitaire FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Oil economy; Petroleum; Stock; United States; Volatility; Econometric model; Modeling; Monte Carlo method; Unit root EG : North America; America SD : Economía petrolera; Petróleo; Existencias; Estados Unidos; Volatibilidad; Modelo econométrico; Modelización; Método Monte Carlo; Raíz unitaria LO : INIST-17162.354000181497250220 222/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0303724 INIST ET : Indirect inference in structural econometric models AU : TONG LI; CHEN (Songnian); LI (Qi) AF : Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Economics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology/Hong Kong/Chine (1 aut.); Singapore National University/Singapour (1 aut.); Department of Economics, Texas A&M University/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2010; Vol. 157; No. 1; Pp. 120-128; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper considers parametric inference in a wide range of structural econometric models. It illustrates how the indirect inference principle can be used in the inference of these models. Specifically, we show that an ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation can be used as an auxiliary model, which leads to a method that is similar in spirit to a two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimator. Monte Carlo studies and an empirical analysis of timber sale auctions held in Oregon illustrate the usefulness and feasibility of our approach. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02H02G; 001A02H02F; 001A02I01Q FD : Méthode statistique; Econométrie; Analyse donnée; Distribution statistique; Théorie approximation; Analyse numérique; Méthode stochastique; Estimation non paramétrique; Estimation statistique; Modèle structure; Modèle économétrique; Méthode paramétrique; Méthode moindre carré; Méthode Monte Carlo; Vente; Ajustement modèle; Simulation; 62Fxx; 62E17; 65C05; 62G05; Inférence paramétrique; Enchère ED : Statistical method; Econometrics; Data analysis; Statistical distribution; Approximation theory; Numerical analysis; Stochastic method; Non parametric estimation; Statistical estimation; Structural model; Econometric model; Parametric method; Least squares method; Monte Carlo method; Sales; Model matching; Simulation; Parametric inference; Auction SD : Método estadístico; Econometría; Análisis datos; Distribución estadística; Análisis numérico; Método estocástico; Estimación no paramétrica; Estimación estadística; Modelo estructura; Modelo econométrico; Método paramétrico; Método cuadrado menor; Método Monte Carlo; Venta; Ajustamiento modelo; Simulación LO : INIST-16460.354000193049980100 223/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0285680 INIST ET : Microscopic Dual-Regime Model for Single-Lane Roundabouts AU : CHEVALLIER (Estelle); LECLERCQ (Ludovic) AF : Laboratoire d'Ingénierie Circulation Transport, LICIT-ENTPE/ INRETS-Univ. de Lyon, Rue Maurice Audin/69518 Vaulx-en-Velin/France (1 aut.); Laboratoire d'Ingénierie Circulation Transport, LICIT-ENTPE/ INRETS-Univ. de Lyon, Rue Maurice Audin/69518 Vaulx-en-Velin/France (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; Vol. 135; No. 6; Pp. 386-394; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Most of microsimulation tools used to model roundabouts encompass classical gap-acceptance algorithms to represent the insertion of approaching vehicles into the circulatory roadway. However, these algorithms fail to reproduce the mean priority sharing process experimentally observed when the circulatory roadway is congested. This paper fills this shortage by proposing an integrated microscopic framework with: (1) a gap-acceptance algorithm giving relevant capacity estimates in uncongested regime; and (2) a probabilistic rate-based insertion decision module in congested regime. In this framework the car-following model can be implemented independently of the insertion decision-making process. Moreover, its direct influence on the insertion decision model is released in congested regime thanks to a relaxation procedure. The obtained simulation results are convincing compared to on-field data collected at different sites for both peak and off-peak periods. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B; 001D14O02; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Modèle microscopique; Carrefour giratoire; Gestion trafic; Intersection; Etalonnage; Ecoulement trafic; Congestion trafic; Validation ED : Road traffic; Microscopic model; Roundabout; Traffic management; Intersection; Calibration; Traffic flow; Traffic congestion; Validation SD : Tráfico carretera; Modelo microscópico; Bifurcación giratoria; Gestión tráfico; Intersección; Contraste; Flujo tráfico; Congestión tráfico; Validación LO : INIST-572E.354000187919300080 224/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0285672 INIST ET : Pedestrian and Vehicle Flow Calibration in Multimodal Traffic Microsimulation AU : MOAZZAM ISHAQUE (Muhammad); NOLAND (Robert B.) AF : EDS, an HP Company, Durham House/Washington, Tyne and Wear, NE38 7SD/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.); Alan M. Voorhees Transportation Center, Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers Univ./New Brunswick, NJ 08901/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; Vol. 135; No. 6; Pp. 338-348; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper provides a method for including pedestrians in a vehicle microsimulation model, specifically the VISSIM model. VISSIM provides a default mechanism for simulating pedestrian movements; however, this does not adequately replicate pedestrian behavior. We instead define pedestrians as vehicles and calibrate various parameters within VISSIM so that pedestrian behavior is calibrated with pedestrian speed-flow models. We validate and refine these parameters using a real traffic network with high levels of pedestrian traffic crossing at signalized junctions. This work demonstrates the feasibility of modeling vehicle-pedestrian interactions in a realistic manner and provides analysts with a tool for evaluating policies that affect both vehicle and pedestrian flows. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Modélisation; Ecoulement trafic; Trafic piéton; Véhicule routier; Etalonnage; Collecte donnée; Durée trajet; Géométrie; Vitesse déplacement; Transport multimodal; Application ED : Road traffic; Modeling; Traffic flow; Pedestrian traffic; Road vehicle; Calibration; Data gathering; Travel time; Geometry; Speed; Multimodal transportation; Application SD : Tráfico carretera; Modelización; Flujo tráfico; Tráfico peatones; Vehículo caminero; Contraste; Recolección dato; Duración trayecto; Geometría; Velocidad desplazamiento; Transporte multimodal; Aplicación LO : INIST-572E.354000187919300030 225/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0285452 INIST ET : Real-Time Crash Risk Reduction on Freeways Using Coordinated and Uncoordinated Ramp Metering Approaches AU : ABDEL-ATY (Mohamed); GAYAH (Vikash); KARLAFTIS (Matthew) AF : Dept. of Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering, Univ. of Central Florida/Orlando, FL 32816-2450/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of California/Berkeley, CA 94720/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; Vol. 136; No. 5; Pp. 410-423; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This study was conducted to examine the ability of two ramp metering strategies at reducing the real-time crash risk along a typical urban freeway. The strategies were tested using a simulated freeway network of Interstate-4 in Orlando, Fla. created in PARAM-ICS microsimulation. Measurements of the crash risk along the freeway were estimated using models created by the first writer which calculate rear-end and lane-change risks along the freeway using offline geometric characteristics and real-time loop detector data. The ramp metering strategies tested were the uncoordinated ALINEA algorithm and the coordinated Zone ramp metering algorithm. Additionally, two implementation methods of these algorithms were examined: the traffic-cycle realization which allows vehicles to enter the network in platoons and the one-car-per-cycle (OCPC) realization which allows a single vehicle to enter the freeway per traffic cycle. This study shows that the ALINEA and Zone algorithms both successfully reduce the real-time crash risk along the freeway. Comparing the two implementation methods, the traffic-cycle realization provides better safety and operational benefits than the OCPC realization. However, the OCPC realization provides better safety benefits when applied with the ALINEA algorithm. In general, the ALINEA algorithm performs better using shorter cycle lengths while the Zone algorithm performs best using longer cycle lengths. Comparing the two metering algorithms, the ALINEA algorithm proves to be superior to the Zone algorithm in providing the best overall safety benefits since it is more restrictive and generally allows fewer vehicles onto the network. However, at the 90% loading scenario, evidence of crash risk migration (the lowering of crash risk at one location combined with the increase at another) appears when the ALINEA algorithm is applied. This crash risk migration is a function of the specific geometry and demand patterns of the network used and is reduced by applying the Zone algorithm. This shows that while the ALINEA algorithm provides better overall results, there are cases where a less restrictive algorithm would perform better from a safety perspective. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Sécurité trafic; Autoroute; Comptage; Temps réel; Accident circulation; Risque accidentel; Simulation; Stratégie; Mesure; Efficacité; Etude comparative; Application; Technologie avancée ED : Road traffic; Traffic safety; Freeway; Counting; Real time; Traffic accident; Hazard; Simulation; Strategy; Measurement; Efficiency; Comparative study; Application; Advanced technology SD : Tráfico carretera; Seguridad tráfico; Autopista; Contaje; Tiempo real; Accidente tráfico; Riesgo accidente; Simulación; Estrategia; Medida; Eficacia; Estudio comparativo; Aplicación; Tecnología avanzada LO : INIST-572E.354000181032920020 226/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0284362 INIST ET : Interactive Process of Microsimulation and Logistic Regression for Short-Term Work Zone Traffic Diversion AU : YALI CHEN; XIAO QIN; NOYCE (David A.); LEE (Chanyoung) AF : Geotrans & Geography Dept., Univ. of California/Santa Barbara/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); CEH 148, Box 2219, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, South Dakota Univ./Brookings, SD 57007/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, 1415 Engineering Dr./Madison, WI 53706/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Center of Urban Transportation Research, Univ. of South Florida, 4202 East Fowler Ave., CUT100/Tampa, FL 33620-5375/Etats-Unis (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; Vol. 136; No. 3; Pp. 243-254; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : The rapidly growing number of work zones on national highways is having significant operational impacts due to the temporary loss of capacity. Work zone impact on safety and mobility creates a strong need to alleviate work zone congestion and protect road users and workers, which requires a sufficient understanding of work zone impact on traffic flow. Previous studies and field observations demonstrated the importance of considering diversion phenomena when performing work zone impact analysis. To overcome the limitations of deterministic queuing approaches applied in most work zone impact analysis tools, an interactive process combining microsimulation and logistic regression was developed to imitate diversion behavior dynamically in the upstream of work zones with a number of entrance and exit ramps. Specifically, the logistic regression model based on the field observations was incorporated into a well-calibrated VISSIM model to simulate traffic flow in work zones with diversion behavior. The integration of the two models was achieved via the development of diversion calculation module using a COM interface provided by VISSIM. The comparison between simulated results and field observations suggested that the diversion calculation module using logistic regression can simulate the queue propagation process due to lane closure in an efficient and effective manner. It was demonstrated that the interactive process can improve work zone impact analysis by using real-time traffic feedback information to emulate the diversion phenomenon upstream of work zones. CC : 001D14O06; 001D15C; 001D15B; 295 FD : Construction routière; Gestion trafic; Trafic routier; Modèle simulation; Régression logistique; Lieu travail; Analyse site; Collecte donnée; Implémentation ED : Road construction; Traffic management; Road traffic; Simulation model; Logistic regression; Work place; Site analysis; Data gathering; Implementation SD : Construcción carretera; Gestión tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Modelo simulación; Regresión logística; Lugar trabajo; Análisis emplazamiento; Recolección dato; Implementación LO : INIST-572E.354000181404680090 227/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0284206 INIST ET : Desired Time Gap and Time Headway in Steady-State Car-Following on Two-Lane Roads AU : PRATIM DEY (Partha); CHANDRA (Satish) AF : Dept. of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology/Durgapur, 713209 West Bengal/Inde (1 aut.); Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology/Roorkee 247667/Inde (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; Vol. 135; No. 10; Pp. 687-693; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Two continuous statistical distribution models, gamma and lognormal, are proposed for desired time gap (TX) and time headway (T) of drivers in a steady car-following state on two-lane roads under mixed traffic conditions. A simulation program was developed for traffic movement on two-lane roads incorporating actual behavior of mixed traffic in terms of speed, placement, arrival pattern, and overtaking behavior. The program was run at 50/50 directional distribution with varying traffic composition and volume level. Headway data obtained from simulation runs are analyzed to develop a relationship between the desired time gap (TX) and the speed of the vehicles for five categories of vehicles, namely, car, heavy vehicle, motorized two-wheeler, three-wheeler, and tractor. It is observed that the desired time gap of a two-wheeler is the minimum of all other categories of vehicles. It is due to their better maneuverability, which allows them to maintain shorter gaps. The desired time gap for tractors is the maximum of all vehicles, which is due to their low acceleration capability and poor braking efficiency. These relationships will be extremely useful in developing the microsimulation models of traffic flow on two-lane highways. CC : 001D15B FD : Gestion trafic; Ecoulement trafic; Régime permanent; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Vitesse déplacement; Suivi de véhicule ED : Traffic management; Traffic flow; Steady state; Modeling; Simulation model; Speed; Car following SD : Gestión tráfico; Flujo tráfico; Régimen permanente; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Velocidad desplazamiento LO : INIST-572E.354000170222870020 228/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0284037 INIST ET : Using M/M/∞ Queueing Model in On-Street Parking Maneuvers AU : LBEAS PORTILLA (Angel); ALONSO ORENA (Borja); MOURA BERODIA (José Luis); RUISANCHEZ DIAZ (Francisco José) AF : Univ. of Cantabria/Espagne (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; Vol. 135; No. 8; Pp. 527-535; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper quantifies the influence badly parked vehicles and on-street parking maneuvers have on average link journey times as a function of the duration of the events and the number of designated maneuvers and flow, by applying an M / M / ∞ queueing model in which arrival and departure are all Poisson processes. The method has been validated using microsimulations calibrated by in-situ measurements taken in the streets of the city of Santander (Cantabria, Spain). The analysis on the delays shows a good fit for the M / M / ∞ model for flows of 60-70% of capacity where the error is always lower than 5%. This demonstrates the efficiency of the M/ M/ ∞ model for studying how on-street parking maneuvers and badly parked vehicles influence traffic flow and avoids the need to use generally more laborious microsimulation models. Microsimulations are used to calculate the reduction in link capacity for each case in the study and the increases in average journey times for the rest of the road users. This shows the effect that allowing on-street parking on arterial or main roads has on the rest of the traffic. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B; 001D14I04J; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Gestion trafic; Parc stationnement; Modélisation; Système attente; Modèle simulation; Manoeuvrabilité ED : Road traffic; Traffic management; Parking lot; Modeling; Queueing system; Simulation model; Maneuverability SD : Tráfico carretera; Gestión tráfico; Parque estacionamiento; Modelización; Sistema fila espera; Modelo simulación; Maniobrabilidad LO : INIST-572E.354000170883040040 229/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0281248 INIST ET : Programming a spatial water model for improving water efficiency in China AU : LAN FANG; NUPPENAU (Ernst-August) AF : Institute of Agricultural Policy and Market Research, University of Ciessen/Giessen, 35390/Allemagne (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Water policy; ISSN 1366-7017; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 11; No. 4; Pp. 504-523; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : This paper deals with heavy pressures to save water in natural resource management due to increased water scarcity. We take the example of a Chinese watershed and investigate the water use efficiency in Chinese irrigated agriculture through a field study as dependent on investments in on-farm water saving technologies and canal water conveyance. The economic and environmental impacts of farmers adopting modern irrigation technologies and public sectors improving water transit systems are studied in particular. A spatial mathematical programming model is employed for optimization. The emphasis is on private and public investments in water saving. Water saving in a canal system enables an extension of the system and provides food and income for more farmers. The model results are of great value for policy makers and project managers, who want to optimize irrigation projects, because scenarios (for instance water and product pricing) are provided. We also provide references for farmers in applying suitable irrigation technologies. CC : 001D14J01; 295 FD : Gestion eau; Chine; Investissement privé; Investissement public; Programmation; Modèle spatial; Utilisation; Enquête; Modèle économétrique; Modèle mathématique; Scénario; Simulation; Recommandation FG : Asie ED : Water management; China; Private investment; Public investment; Programming; Spatial model; Use; Survey; Econometric model; Mathematical model; Script; Simulation; Recommendation EG : Asia SD : Gestión del agua; China; Inversión privada; Inversión pública; Programación; Modelo espacial; Uso; Encuesta; Modelo econométrico; Modelo matemático; Argumento; Simulación; Recomendación LO : INIST-27096.354000170811010080 230/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0256630 INIST ET : Simulation Modeling of Health Care Policy AU : GLIED (Sherry); TILIPMAN (Nicholas) AF : Department of Health Policy and Management, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University/New York, New York 10032/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Annual review of public health; ISSN 0163-7525; Coden AREHDT; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; Vol. 31; Pp. 439-455; Bibl. 127 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Simulation modeling of health reform is a standard part of policy development and, in the United States, a required element in enacting health reform legislation. Modelers use three types of basic structures to build models of the health system: microsimulation, individual choice, and cell-based. These frameworks are filled in with data on baseline characteristics of the system and parameters describing individual behavior. Available data on baseline characteristics are imprecise, and estimates of key empirical parameters vary widely. A comparison of estimated and realized consequences of several health reform proposals suggests that models provided reasonably accurate estimates, with confidence bounds of ˜30%. CC : 002B30A11 FD : Simulation; Modélisation; Politique sanitaire; Santé publique; Soin; Assurance maladie; Protection sociale; Paiement; Economie santé; Réforme; Aspect politique ED : Simulation; Modeling; Health policy; Public health; Care; Health insurance; Welfare aids; Payment; Health economy; Reform; Political aspect SD : Simulación; Modelización; Política sanitaria; Salud pública; Cuidado; Seguro enfermedad; Protección social; Pago; Economía salud; Reforma; Aspecto político LO : INIST-19672.354000181759280270 231/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0241942 BDSP FT : Les retraites du régime général : perspectives de court terme AU : JOUBERT (P.); OLIVEAU (J.B.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : CADRAGE; France; Da. 2009-12; No. 9; Pp. 1-3; Bibl. dissem. LA : Français FA : Le domaine de la retraite, fortement dépendant de la démographie, a connu d'importants changements ces dernières années. L'arrivée à l'âge de la retraite de générations nombreuses et les réformes successives ont modifié les évolutions des indicateurs liés à la retraite. Il apparaît nécessaire d'apporter des éclairages sur ces évolutions et sur leurs effets à court terme. Tous les ans, dans le cadre du projet de loi de financement de la Sécurité sociale, des prévisions à quatre ans sont réalisées afin de déterminer l'évolution du nombre de retraités et des dépenses du régime général. Elles sont élaborées à l'aide de Prisme, le modèle de microsimulation de la Cnav CC : 002B30A11 FD : Homme; Retraite; Donnée statistique; Simulation; France FG : Europe ED : Human; Retirement; Statistical data; Simulation; France EG : Europe SD : Hombre; Jubilación; Dato estadístico; Simulación; Francia LO : BDSP/IRDES 232/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0241924 BDSP FT : Prédire les dépenses de médicaments à l'horizon 2025 : vieillissement des populations, morbidité des cohortes et consommations des personnes AU : BARNAY (T.); THIEBAUT (S.); VENTELOU (B.) AF : DT : Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : 31èmes Journées des économistes de la santé français/2009-12-03/FRA; France; CES; Da. 2009-12-03/2009-12-04; Pp. 1-25 LA : Français FA : Cette étude propose une méthode de prédiction de l'évolution des dépenses de médicaments sous l'effet du vieillissement de la population française à l'horizon 2029. Le support choisi pour la première application de l'outil est la base de données ESPS 2004 de l'IRDES apparié avec l'Echantillon Permanent d'Assurés Sociaux (EPAS), seule base française permettant d'observer à la fois les caractéristiques individuelles des agents et leurs dépenses de santé remboursées. Le thème traité est l'impact de changements épidémiologiques (vieillissement, morbidité) sur le montant des dépenses de médicaments. Ces travaux s'appuient sur un modèle de &dquot;microsimulation&dquot; mis au point par l'Inserm SE4S dans le but de prédire les dépenses de santé des français à l'horizon 2029, dans différents scénarios de mortalité et de morbidité. Pour simuler la future trajectoire individuelle de santé est employée une matrice de taux de transition inter état permettant de faire vieillir artificiellement les agents. Le modèle intègre deux indicateurs d'états de santé par lesquels nous faisons transiter, par microsimulation, chaque agent de la base de données (créant ainsi une dynamique épidémiologique). Enfin, à l'aide d'une modélisation économétrique de la consommation individuelle des produits pharmaceutiques, cette étude déduit la dépense de médicaments en 2029 par agrégation de la population représentative vieillie jusqu'à cette date CC : 002B30A11 FD : Consommation; Médicament; Morbidité; Population; Sénescence; Age; Mortalité; Innovation; Médecine; Prospective; Donnée statistique; Enquête; Santé; Pays industrialisé ED : Consumption; Drug; Morbidity; Population; Senescence; Age; Mortality; Innovation; Medicine; Prospective; Statistical data; Survey; Health; Industrialized country SD : Consumo; Medicamento; Morbilidad; Población; Senescencia; Edad; Mortalidad; Innovación; Medicina; Prospectiva; Dato estadístico; Encuesta; Salud; País industrializado LO : BDSP/IRDES 233/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0241922 BDSP FT : Réformer le système de remboursement pour les soins de ville : une analyse par microsimulation AU : GEOFFARD (P.Y.); LAGASNERIE (G.) AF : DT : Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : 31èmes Journées des économistes de la santé français/2009-12-03/FRA; France; CES; Da. 2009-12-03/2009-12-04; Pp. 1-56 LA : Français FA : Les évolutions du système de remboursement des dépenses de soins par l'assurance publique ont fortement diminue la couverture publique du risque maladie. Ce système laisse à la charge des assurés des sommes qui peuvent s'avérer importantes lorsque ceux-ci traversent des épisodes de maladie longs et coûteux. Pour permettre la protection contre ces restes à charge élevés, le système des ALD (Affection de Longue Durée) a été instauré. Il offre une prise en charge totale des soins liées à l'affection. Malgré un tel dispositif, certains assurés (et même ceux en ALD) restent insuffisamment couverts lorsqu'ils doivent faire face à des dépenses élevées. Afin de garantir une meilleure couverture de ces assurés, il existe deux solutions. Tout d'abord, permettre à chacun de bénéficier d'une assurance complémentaire. Cette assurance couvre tout ou partie des soins non pris en charge par l'assurance publique. 7% de la population ne jouit pas d'une telle assurance. Et l'échec des différents dispositifs (Aide Complémentaire Santé) visant à diffuser plus largement ce complément d'assurance montre les limites de cette première solution. Cette étude privilégie donc une autre approche dans la lignée du bouclier sanitaire [Briet et Fragonnard, 2007]. Les caractéristiques du bouclier sont simples : au-delà d'un plafond, les dépenses de soins dans le périmètre de l'Assurance Maladie Obligatoire seraient prises en charge à100% par l'assurance maladie publique. Pour le financer, à la différence de Briet et Fragonnard qui préconisent la suppression d'exonérations dont le système ALD, sera instaurée une franchise médicale individuelle annuelle (non remboursable par une assurance complémentaire) sur les dépenses de soins CC : 002B30A11 FD : Longue durée; Maladie; Dépense; Santé; Contrôle; Régulation; Revenu individuel; Financement; Soin; Simulation; Microéconomie; Méthodologie; France FG : Europe ED : Long lasting; Disease; Expenditure; Health; Check; Regulation(control); Personal income; Financing; Care; Simulation; Microeconomy; Methodology; France EG : Europe SD : Larga duración; Enfermedad; Gasto; Salud; Control; Regulación; Renta personal; Financiación; Cuidado; Simulación; Microeconomía; Metodología; Francia LO : BDSP/IRDES 234/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0241718 BDSP FT : Prédire les dépenses de médicaments à l'horizon 2029 : vieillissement des populations, morbidité des cohortes et choix de recours des personnes AU : BARNAY (T.); VENTELOU (B.); THIEBAUT (S.) AF : DT : Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : 31ème Journées d'Economistes de la Santé Français/2009-12-03/FRA; France; Da. 2009-12-03/2009-12-04; Pp. 1-25 LA : Français FA : Nous proposons une méthode de prédiction de l'évolution des dépenses de médicaments sous l'effet du vieillissement de la population française à l'horizon 2029. Le support choisi pour la première application de l'outil est la base de données ESPS 2004 de l'IRDES apparié avec l'Echantillon Permanent d'Assurés Sociaux (EPAS), seule base française permettant d'observer à la fois les caractéristiques individuelles des agents et leurs dépenses de santé remboursées. Le thème traité est l'impact de changements épidémiologiques (vieillissement, morbidité) sur le montant des dépenses de médicaments. Ces travaux s'appuient sur un modèle de &dquot;microsimulation&dquot; mis au point par l'Inserm SE4S dans le but de prédire les dépenses de santé des français à l'horizon 2029, dans différents scénarios de mortalité et de morbidité. Pour simuler la future trajectoire individuelle de santé, nous employons une matrice de taux de transition inter état permettant de faire vieillir artificiellement les agents. Le modèle intègre deux indicateurs d'états de santé par lesquels nous faisons transiter, par microsimulation, chaque agent de la base de données (créant ainsi une dynamique épidémiologique). Enfin, à l'aide d'une modélisation économétrique de la consommation individuelle des produits pharmaceutiques, nous déduisons la dépense de médicaments en 2029 par agrégation de la population représentative vieillie jusqu'à cette date CC : 002B30A11 FD : Dépense; Santé; Economie santé; Médicament; Politique sanitaire; Politique; Soin; Projection perspective ED : Expenditure; Health; Health economy; Drug; Health policy; Policy; Care; Perspective projection SD : Gasto; Salud; Economía salud; Medicamento; Política sanitaria; Política; Cuidado; Proyección perspectiva LO : BDSP/ORSPACA-2618 235/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0241685 BDSP ET : Elderly Disability and Changes in Family Support : Microsimulation for France in 2030 AU : THIEBAUT (S.); DAVIN (B.); ARRIGHI (Y.); PARAPONARIS (A.); VENTELOU (B.) AF : DT : Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : 2nd Conference of the International Microsimulation Association/2009-06-08/FRA; France; Da. 2009-06-08/2009-06-10; Pp. 1-13 LA : Anglais EA : Background : Simulations of scenarios for old-age disability have already been computed, giving plausible Long-Term-Care needs (LTC needs), but with no attention paid for different scenarios for family structure (marital status, number of children) and intra-family decisions about formal versus informal care for elderly parent. Objective : To enrich a Markovian dynamic microsimulation model giving disability prevalence for 2030 with a Beckerian-like family decision process ; to integrate a formal care (versus informal care) microeconomic decision in the macroeconomic estimates for health expenditures. Methods : We developed a microsimulation model using Markovian dynamics on health status, with different epidemiological scenarios for disability (benchmark case and healthy aging). In that model, LTC needs and demand for formal LTC were computed, for each epidemiological scenario, under the assumption of a fixed rate of transformation of needs into demand for formal care. Nevertheless, in order to get a complete behavioural assessment of the issue, there is a strong requirement for a microeconomic modelling of family decision about formal long-term care - versus informal. The endogenous variable of the micro-founded model is the decision by the family members to use formal LTC - rather than giving care themselves. Exogenous variables are : rate of divorce amongst elderly ; number of children and other children's characteristics (job market conditions, amount of bequest) which all define relatives'propensity to spend time with their parents. Results : There are two sources of variation for the future amount of health expenditures : alternative epidemiological assumptions (healthy aging) explain a first gap in estimates ; a tentative and preliminary work to include variation in family support gave a comparable gap in the estimates of formal LTC consumed by elderly people (for a given state of disability, demand by a divorced man, with only one child, working himself, will be greater than demand by a married elderly with several children with a lot of free-time). Conclusion : According to our results, changes in family support could reverse all gains due to better health status of the future generations of aged people. Information and calibration about this large uncertainty regarding family support has to be put on the policymaker agenda ; microsimulation tools should help for that purpose CC : 002B30A11 FD : France; Handicap; Personne âgée; Projection perspective; Société; Soin FG : Europe; Homme ED : France; Handicap; Elderly; Perspective projection; Society; Care EG : Europe; Human SD : Francia; Discapacidad; Anciano; Proyección perspectiva; Sociedad; Cuidado LO : BDSP/ORSPACA-2506 236/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0224625 INIST ET : BOOTSTRAP INFERENCE IN PARTIALLY IDENTIFIED MODELS DEFINED BY MOMENT INEQUALITIES: COVERAGE OF THE IDENTIFIED SET AU : BUGNI (Federico A.) AF : Dept. of Economics, Duke University, 213 Social Sciences Building, Box 90097/Durham, NC 27708/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Econometrica; ISSN 0012-9682; Coden ECMTA7; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2010; Vol. 78; No. 2; Pp. 735-753; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper introduces a novel bootstrap procedure to perform inference in a wide class of partially identified econometric models. We consider econometric models defined by finitely many weak moment inequalities,2 which encompass many applications of economic interest. The objective of our inferential procedure is to cover the identified set with a prespecified probability.3 We compare our bootstrap procedure, a competing asymptotic approximation, and subsampling procedures in terms of the rate at which they achieve the desired coverage level, also known as the error in the coverage probability. Under certain conditions, we show that our bootstrap procedure and the asymptotic approximation have the same order of error in the coverage probability, which is smaller than that obtained by using subsampling. This implies that inference based on our bootstrap and asymptotic approximation should eventually be more precise than inference based on subsampling. A Monte Carlo study confirms this finding in a small sample simulation. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02H02G; 001A02H02F; 001A02I01Q FD : Méthode rééchantillonnage; Méthode jackknife; Distribution statistique; Théorie approximation; Analyse numérique; Méthode stochastique; Accélération convergence; Bootstrap; Estimation statistique; Moment statistique; Modèle économétrique; Sciences économiques; Approximation asymptotique; Probabilité erreur; Ordre approximation; Méthode Monte Carlo; Petit échantillon; Simulation; Echantillonnage; Taux convergence; Méthode statistique; Econométrie; 62F40; 62E17; 62P20; 65C05; 65B99; Estimation paramétrique; Probabilité couverture ED : Resampling method; Jackknife method; Statistical distribution; Approximation theory; Numerical analysis; Stochastic method; Convergence acceleration; Bootstrap; Statistical estimation; Statistical moment; Econometric model; Economic sciences; Asymptotic approximation; Error probability; Approximation order; Monte Carlo method; Small sample; Simulation; Sampling; Convergence rate; Statistical method; Econometrics; Coverage probability SD : Método jackknife; Distribución estadística; Análisis numérico; Método estocástico; Aceleración convergencia; Bootstrap; Estimación estadística; Momento estadístico; Modelo econométrico; Ciencias económicas; Aproximación asintótica; Probabilidad error; Orden aproximación; Método Monte Carlo; Pequeña muestra; Simulación; Muestreo; Relación convergencia; Método estadístico; Econometría LO : INIST-2069.354000182049000100 237/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0201272 INIST ET : Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto AU : ABADIE (Luis M.); CHAMORRO (José M.) AF : Bilbao Bizkaia Kutxa, Gran Via, 30/48009 Bilbao/Espagne (1 aut.); University of the Basque Country, Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I, Av. Lehendakari Aguirre, 83/48015 Bilbao/Espagne (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 37; No. 12; Pp. 5304-5316; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Coal-fired power plants enjoy a significant advantage relative to gas plants in terms of cheaper fuel cost. This advantage may erode (or turn into disadvantage) depending on CO2 emission allowance price. Financial risks are further reinforced when the price of electricity is determined by natural gas-fired plants' marginal costs. We aim to empirically assess the risks in EU coal plants' margins up to the year 2020. Parameter values are derived from actual market data. Monte Carlo simulation allows compute the expected value and risk profile of coal plants' earnings. Future allowance prices may spell significant risks on utilities' balance sheets. CC : 001D06A01B; 001D06A01C2A; 001D06A01C4; 230 FD : Politique énergétique; Politique environnement; Prévention pollution; Lutte antipollution; Permis émission; Emission polluant; Dioxyde de carbone; Impact économique; Production énergie électrique; Charbon; Prix; Centrale charbon; Rentabilité; Bénéfice; Prévision; Long terme; Union européenne; Modèle économétrique; Processus stochastique ED : Energy policy; Environmental policy; Pollution prevention; Pollution control; Emission permit; Pollutant emission; Carbon dioxide; Economic impact; Electric power production; Coal; Price; Coal power plant; Profitability; Profit; Forecasting; Long term; European Union; Econometric model; Stochastic process SD : Política energética; Política medio ambiente; Prevención polución; Lucha anticontaminación; Permiso de emisión; Emisión contaminante; Carbono dióxido; Impacto económico; Producción energía eléctrica; Carbón; Precio; Central carbón; Rentabilidad; Beneficio; Previsión; Largo plazo; Unión Europea; Modelo econométrico; Proceso estocástico LO : INIST-16417.354000171481160290 238/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0182916 INIST ET : Comprehensive Model of Worker Nonwork-Activity Time Use and Timing Behavior AU : RAJAGOPALAN (Bharath S.); RAWOOF PINJARI (Abdul); BHAT (Chandra R.) AF : Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1761/Austin, TX 78712-0278/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 3 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, 4202 East Fowler Avenue, ENC 2503/Tampa, FL 33620/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; No. 2134; Pp. 51-62; Bibl. 44 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A comprehensive, high-resolution model for out-of-home nonwork-activity generation is developed; it considers daily activity time-use behavior and activity timing preferences in a unified random utility framework. The empirical analysis is undertaken with data from the 2000 San Francisco, California, Bay Area Travel Survey. Several important household and commuter demographics, commute characteristics, and activity travel environment attributes are found to be significant determinants of workers' nonwork-activity time use and timing behavior. The developed comprehensive model can serve as an activity-generation module in an activity-based travel demand microsimulation framework. CC : 001D15A FD : Transports; Modélisation; Analyse comportementale; Timing; Activité; Travail; Méthode empirique ED : Transportation; Modeling; Behavioral analysis; Timing; Activity; Work; Empirical method SD : Transportes; Modelización; Análisis conductual; Timing; Actividad; Trabajo; Método empírico LO : INIST-10459B.354000180987650070 239/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0181207 INIST ET : Pedestrian Crosswalks at Midblock Locations: Fuzzy Logic Solution to Existing Signal Operations AU : LU (George); NOYCE (David A.) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin, Madison, 1415 Engineering Drive/Madison, WI 53706-1691/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; No. 2140; Pp. 63-78; Bibl. 28 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The increasing number of midblock vehicle-pedestrian crashes has led traffic engineers to consider safer treatments for pedestrian crossings while preserving flow efficiency. One of the existing solutions is to install signalized crosswalks. Using a microsimulation approach, this study first assesses three signal systems for a typical midblock crosswalk (MBC) with varied geometries, with the aim to explore how different signalization schemes and crosswalk geometries affect measures of effectiveness from all user perspectives. The results indicate that two-phase timing outperforms one-phase timing and the innovative high-intensity activated crosswalk significantly improves vehicle operations over actuation by pedestrians and pedestrian light control. Of existing signals, the pedestrian user-friendly interface (PUFFIN) is more functional because of its dynamic pedestrian clearance interval, but it still does not account for enough safety and human factors in its control logic and thus lacks an adaptive ability in fulfllling competing objectives. Fuzzy logic control (FLC) has proved effective for a complex optimization problem with multiple goals, uncertain information, and vague decision criteria. Traffic signal timing lies in this realm. To model the range of variables affecting MBCs, a user-friendly FLC counterpart is developed and then evaluated against PUFFIN to quantify potential safety and efficiency benefits. The results show that with straightforward logic and tractable parameters, FLC manages the MBC signal timing effectively and outperforms PUFFIN in terms of a compromise among enhanced safety, ameliorated operations, and lessened social cost from crashes and delays. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Passage piéton; Accident circulation; Etude méthode; Logique floue; Sécurité trafic; Signalisation; Modèle simulation; Expérimentation ED : Road traffic; Pedestrian walk; Traffic accident; Method study; Fuzzy logic; Traffic safety; Signalling; Simulation model; Experimentation SD : Tráfico carretera; Pasaje peatones; Accidente tráfico; Estudio método; Lógica difusa; Seguridad tráfico; Señalización; Modelo simulación; Experimentación LO : INIST-10459B.354000181412010070 240/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0178244 INIST ET : Traffic Signal Optimization in &dquot;La Almozara&dquot; District in Saragossa Under Congestion Conditions, Using Genetic Algorithms, Traffic Microsimulation, and Cluster Computing AU : SANCHEZ-MEDINA (Javier J.); GALAN-MORENO (Manuel J.); RUBIO-ROYO (Enrique) AF : Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria/35017 Las Palmas/Espagne (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : IEEE Transactions on intelligent transportation systems; ISSN 1524-9050; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; Vol. 11; No. 1; Pp. 132-141; Bibl. 30 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Urban traffic congestion is a pandemic illness affecting many cities around the world. We have developed and tested a new model for traffic signal optimization based on the combination of three key techniques: 1) genetic algorithms (GAs) for the optimization task; 2) cellular-automata-based microsimulators for evaluating every possible solution for traffic-light programming times; and 3) a Beowulf Cluster, which is a multiple-instruction-multiple-data (MIMD) multicomputer of excellent price/performance ratio. This paper presents the results of applying this architecture to a large-scale real-world test case in a congestion situation, using four different variables as fitness function of the GA. We have simulated a set of congested scenarios for &dquot;La Almozara&dquot; in Saragossa, Spain. Our results in this extreme case are encouraging: As we increase the incoming volume of vehicles entering the traffic network-from 36 up to 3600 vehicles per hour-we get better performance from our architecture. Finally, we present new research directions in this area. CC : 001D02B04; 001D15C; 001D02C FD : Calcul réparti; Système réparti; Automate cellulaire; Intelligence artificielle; Système intelligent; Signalisation routière; Trafic routier; Grappe calculateur; Trafic urbain; Congestion trafic; Optimisation; Algorithme génétique; Gestion trafic; Feu signalisation; Calculateur MIMD; Modélisation; Système transport ED : Distributed computing; Distributed system; Cellular automaton; Artificial intelligence; Intelligent system; Road signalling; Road traffic; Calculator cluster; Urban traffic; Traffic congestion; Optimization; Genetic algorithm; Traffic management; Traffic lights; MIMD computer; Modeling; Transportation system SD : Cálculo repartido; Sistema repartido; Autómata celular; Inteligencia artificial; Sistema inteligente; Señalización tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Racimo calculadora; Tráfico urbano; Congestión tráfico; Optimización; Algoritmo genético; Gestión tráfico; Semáforo; Modelización; Sistema de transporte LO : INIST-27061.354000189353620130 241/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0175174 INIST ET : Assessing and Forecasting Population Health: Integrating Knowledge and Beliefs in a Comprehensive Framework AU : VAN MEIJGAARD (Jeroen); FIELDING (Jonathan E.); KOMINSKI (Gerald F.) AF : University of California Los Angeles School of Public Health, Department of Health Services/Los Angeles, CA/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Public health reports : (1974); ISSN 0033-3549; Coden PHRPA6; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; Vol. 124; No. 6; Pp. 778-789; Bibl. 48 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A comprehensive population health-forecasting model has the potential to interject new and valuable information about the future health status of the population based on current conditions, socioeconomic and demographic trends, and potential changes in policies and programs. Our Health Forecasting Model uses a continuous-time microsimulation framework to simulate individuals' lifetime histories by using birth, risk exposures, disease incidence, and death rates to mark changes in the state of the individual. The model generates a reference forecast of future health in California, including details on physical activity, obesity, coronary heart disease, all-cause mortality, and medical expenditures. We use the model to answer specific research questions, inform debate on important policy issues in public health, support community advocacy, and provide analysis on the long-term impact of proposed changes in policies and programs, thus informing stakeholders at all levels and supporting decisions that can improve the health of populations. CC : 002B30A11 FD : Evaluation; Prévision; Population; Santé publique; Connaissance; Croyance ED : Evaluation; Forecasting; Population; Public health; Knowledge; Belief SD : Evaluación; Previsión; Población; Salud pública; Conocimiento; Creencia LO : INIST-3073.354000170287060030 242/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0167797 INIST ET : Methods for predicting noise in the vicinity of signalized intersections AU : NAMIKAWA (Yoshiharu); YOSHINAGA (Hiroshi); TAJIKA (Terutoshi); OSHINO (Yasuo); YOSHIHISA (Koichi); YAMAMOTO (Kohei); YAMAMOTO (Kohei) AF : National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism/1 Asahi, Tsukuba, 305-0804/Japon (1 aut., 2 aut.); Environmental Technical Laboratory, Ltd., 11-17, Kohoku 2-chome/Adachi-ku, Tokyo, 123-0872/Japon (3 aut.); Japan Automobile Research Institute/2530, Karima, Tsukuba, 305-0822/Japon (4 aut.); Meijo University, 1-502, Shiogamaguchi/Tempaku-ku, Nagoya, 468-8502/Japon (5 aut.); Kobayasi Institute of Physical Research/3-20-41 Higashi-Motomachi, Kokubunji, 185-0022/Japon (6 aut.); Acoustical Society of Japan/Japon (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Acoustical science and technology; ISSN 1346-3969; Japon; Da. 2010; Vol. 31; No. 1; Pp. 87-94; Bibl. 3 ref. LA : Anglais EA : To accurately estimate the noise at a signalized intersection, it is necessary to precisely reproduce the traffic volume, signal cycle and traffic noise for each vehicle behavior and driving state. Precise reproduction requires considerable effort, such as continuous calculations of vehicles and the setting of parameters such as engine speed, engine load and velocity. A simple method that involves using A-weighted sound power levels (LWA) under nonsteady running conditions has already been proposed for estimating noise at signalized intersections in a previous paper. In this study, the authors developed two simple methods for predicting noise in which the effects of acceleration and deceleration by signals is reflected. One method is based on a microsimulation traffic model, in which equivalent continuous A-weighted sound pressure levels (LAeq) is calculated by adding the noise of vehicles passing a green signal and the noise of vehicles decelerating and stopping at a red signal then accelerating when the signal turns green. The other method is even simpler and involves the assumption that an intersection zone is an unsteady running section and that LWA for a nonsteady running section is larger than that for a steady running section. Noise predicting by the three simple methods is compared with actual measurements at 10 sites. The two new methods had slightly improved accuracy relative to the measured results. CC : 001B40C50 FD : Bruit trafic; Niveau pression acoustique équivalent; Psychoacoustique; Niveau pression acoustique; Signalisation routière; Trafic routier; Modélisation; Fonction Green; . ED : Traffic noise; Equivalent sound pressure level; Psychoacoustics; Sound pressure level; Road signalling; Road traffic; Modeling; Green function SD : Ruido tráfico; Nivel presión acústica equivalente; Psicoacústico; Nivel presión acústica; Señalización tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Modelización; Función Green LO : INIST-18937.354000181825850050 243/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0152540 INIST ET : Cost-effectiveness of strontium ranelate versus risedronate in the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporotic women aged over 75 years AU : HILIGSMANN (Mickaël); BRUYERE (Olivier); REGINSTER (Jean-Yves) AF : HEC-ULg Management School, University of Liège, Boulevard du Rectorat 7, Bât B31/4000 Liège/Belgique (1 aut.); Department of Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics, University of Liège/Liège/Belgique (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Bone : (New York, NY); ISSN 8756-3282; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; Vol. 46; No. 2; Pp. 440-446; Bibl. 53 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of strontium ranelate in the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporotic women aged over 75 years. Materials and methods: A validated Markov microsimulation model with a Belgian payer's perspective estimated the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of a 3-year strontium ranelate treatment compared with no treatment and with the bisphosphonate risedronate. Data on the effect of both treatments on fracture risk were taken from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Analyses were performed for postmenopausal women aged 75 and 80 years, either with a diagnosis of osteoporosis (i.e. bone mineral density T-score ≤-2.5 SD) or with prevalent vertebral fractures (PVF). Parameter uncertainty was evaluated using both one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Results: Strontium ranelate was dominant (i.e. more effective and less costly) versus risedronate for women with osteoporosis aged over 75 years and for women with PVF aged 80 years. The cost per QALY gained of strontium ranelate compared with risedronate at 75 years of age was <euro sign>11,435 for women with PVF. When compared with no treatment, the costs per QALY gained of strontium ranelate were <euro sign>15,588 and <euro sign>7,708 at 75 and 80 years of age for women with osteoporosis; the equivalent values were <euro sign>16,518 and <euro sign>6,015 for women with PVF. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that strontium ranelate was generally more cost-effective than risedronate, in the range of 60% in all cases. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that strontium ranelate is a cost-effective strategy, in a Belgian setting, for the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporotic women aged over 75 years. CC : 002A16; 002B15A; 002B02L FD : Ostéoporose; Ranélate de strontium; Acide risédronique; Coût; Etude comparative; Traitement; Postménopause; Femme; Morphologie; Antiostéoporotique; Antiostéoclastique FG : Homme; Economie santé; Pathologie du système ostéoarticulaire; Santé publique ED : Osteoporosis; Strontium ranelate; Risedronic acid; Costs; Comparative study; Treatment; Postmenopause; Woman; Morphology; Antiosteoporotic; Antiosteoclastic agent EG : Human; Health economy; Diseases of the osteoarticular system; Public health SD : Osteoporosis; Ranelat d'estronci; Acido risedrónico; Coste; Estudio comparativo; Tratamiento; Postmenopausia; Mujer; Morfología; Antiosteoporótico; Antiosteoclástica LO : INIST-19041.354000190111060260 244/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0145838 INIST ET : A Health Policy Model of CKD: 2. The Cost-Effectiveness of Microalbuminuria Screening AU : HOERGER (Thomas J.); WITTENBORN (John S.); SEGEL (Joel E.); BURROWS (Nilka R.); IMAI (Kumiko); EGGERS (Paul); PAVKOV (Meda E.); JORDAN (Regina); HAILPERN (Susan M.); SCHOOLWERTH (Anton C.); WILLIAMS (Desmond E.) AF : RTI International/Research Triangle Park, NC/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/Atlanta, GA/Etats-Unis (4 aut., 7 aut., 8 aut., 9 aut., 11 aut.); UNICEF Swaziland/Mbabane/Swaziland (5 aut.); National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases/Bethesda, MD/Etats-Unis (6 aut.); Dartmouth Hitchcock Medical Center/Lebanon, NH/Etats-Unis (10 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : American journal of kidney diseases; ISSN 0272-6386; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; Vol. 55; No. 3; Pp. 463-473; Bibl. 41 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: Microalbuminuria screening may detect chronic kidney disease in its early stages, allowing for treatment that delays or prevents disease progression. The cost-effectiveness of microalbuminuria screening has not been determined. Study Design: A cost-effectiveness model simulating disease progression and costs. Setting & Population: US patients. Model, Perspective, and Timeframe: The microsimulation model follows up disease progression and costs in a cohort of simulated patients from age 50 to 90 years or death. Costs are evaluated from the health care system perspective. Intervention: Microalbuminuria screening at 1-, 2-, 5-, or 10-year intervals followed by treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers. We considered universal screening, as well as screening targeted at persons with diabetes, persons with hypertension but no diabetes, and persons with neither diabetes nor hypertension. Outcomes: Costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Results: For the full model population, universal screening increases costs and increases QALYs. Universal annual screening starting at age 50 years has a cost-effectiveness ratio of $73,000/QALY relative to no screening and $145,000/QALY relative to usual care. Cost-effectiveness ratios improved with longer screening intervals. Relative to no screening, targeted annual screening has cost-effectiveness ratios of $21,000/QALY, $55,000/QALY, and $155,000/QALY for persons with diabetes, those with hypertension, and those with neither current diabetes nor current hypertension, respectively. Limitations: Results necessarily are based on a microsimulation model because of the long time horizon appropriate for chronic kidney disease. The model includes only health care costs. Conclusions: Microalbuminuria screening is cost-effective for patients with diabetes or hypertension, but is not cost-effective for patients with neither diabetes nor hypertension unless screening is conducted at longer intervals or as part of existing physician visits. CC : 002B14E01; 002B14A05 FD : Néphropathie chronique; Politique sanitaire; Modèle; Insuffisance rénale; Analyse coût efficacité; Economie santé; Microalbuminurie; Dépistage; Rein; Stade terminal; Néphrologie; Urologie; Albumine; Insuffisance rénale chronique FG : Pathologie de l'appareil urinaire; Pathologie du rein; Protéinurie; Appareil urinaire ED : Chronic kidney disease; Health policy; Models; Renal failure; Cost efficiency analysis; Health economy; Microalbuminuria; Medical screening; Kidney; Terminal stage; Nephrology; Urology; Albumin; Chronic renal failure EG : Urinary system disease; Kidney disease; Proteinuria; Urinary system SD : Nefropatía crónica; Política sanitaria; Modelo; Insuficiencia renal; Análisis costo eficacia; Economía salud; Microalbuminuria; Descubrimiento; Riñón; Estadio terminal; Nefrología; Urología; Albúmina; Insuficiencia renal crónica LO : INIST-19098.354000181608700100 245/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0145832 INIST ET : A Health Policy Model of CKD: 1. Model Construction, Assumptions, and Validation of Health Consequences AU : HOERGER (Thomas J.); WITTENBORN (John S.); SEGEL (Joel E.); BURROWS (Nilka R.); IMAI (Kumiko); EGGERS (Paul); PAVKOV (Meda E.); JORDAN (Regina); HAILPERN (Susan M.); SCHOOLWERTH (Anton C.); WILLIAM (Desmond E.) AF : RTI International/Research Triangle Park/Nouvelle-Calédonie (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/Atlanta, GA;/Etats-Unis (4 aut., 7 aut., 8 aut., 9 aut., 11 aut.); UNICEF Swaziland/Mbabane/Swaziland (5 aut.); National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases/Bethesda, MD/Etats-Unis (6 aut.); Dartmouth Hitchcock Medical Center/Lebanon, NH/Etats-Unis (10 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : American journal of kidney diseases; ISSN 0272-6386; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; Vol. 55; No. 3; Pp. 452-462; Bibl. 39 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: A cost-effectiveness model that accurately represents disease progression, outcomes, and associated costs is necessary to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of interventions for chronic kidney disease (CKD). Study Design: We developed a microsimulation model of the incidence, progression, and treatment of CKD. The model was validated by comparing its predictions with survey and epidemiologic data sources. Setting & Population: US patients. Model, Perspective, & Timeframe: The model follows up disease progression in a cohort of simulated patients aged 30 until age 90 years or death. The model consists of 7 mutually exclusive states representing no CKD, 5 stages of CKD, and death. Progression through the stages is governed by a person's glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria status. Diabetes, hypertension, and other risk factors influence CKD and the development of CKD complications in the model. Costs are evaluated from the health care system perspective. Intervention: Usual care, including incidental screening for persons with diabetes or hypertension. Outcomes: Progression to CKD stages, complications, and mortality. Results: The model provides reasonably accurate estimates of CKD prevalence by stage. The model predicts that 47.1 % of 30-year-olds will develop CKD during their lifetime, with 1.7%, 6.9%, 27.3%, 6.9%, and 4.4% ending at stages 1-5, respectively. Approximately 11% of persons who reach stage 3 will eventually progress to stage 5. The model also predicts that 3.7% of persons will develop end-stage renal disease compared with an estimate of 3.0% based on current end-stage renal disease lifetime incidence. Limitations: The model synthesizes data from multiple sources rather than a single source and relies on explicit assumptions about progression. The model does not include acute kidney failure. Conclusion: The model is well validated and can be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of CKD interventions. The model also can be updated as better data for CKD progression become available. CC : 002B14E01; 002B14A05 FD : Néphropathie chronique; Politique sanitaire; Modèle; Validation; Santé; Analyse coût efficacité; Economie santé; Néphrologie; Urologie FG : Insuffisance rénale; Pathologie de l'appareil urinaire; Pathologie du rein ED : Chronic kidney disease; Health policy; Models; Validation; Health; Cost efficiency analysis; Health economy; Nephrology; Urology EG : Renal failure; Urinary system disease; Kidney disease SD : Nefropatía crónica; Política sanitaria; Modelo; Validación; Salud; Análisis costo eficacia; Economía salud; Nefrología; Urología LO : INIST-19098.354000181608700090 246/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0137890 INIST ET : INFERENCE FOR THE IDENTIFIED SET IN PARTIALLY IDENTIFIED ECONOMETRIC MODELS AU : ROMANO (Joseph P.); SHAIKH (Azeem M.) AF : Depts. of Economics and Statistics, Sequoia Hall, Stanford University/Stanford, CA 94305-4065/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Dept. of Economics, University of Chicago, 1126 East 59th Street/Chicago, IL 60637/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Econometrica; ISSN 0012-9682; Coden ECMTA7; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2010; Vol. 78; No. 1; Pp. 169-211; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper provides computationally intensive, yet feasible methods for inference in a very general class of partially identified econometric models. Let P denote the distribution of the observed data. The class of models we consider is defined by a population objective function Q(&thgr;, P) for &thgr; ∈ &THgr;. The point of departure from the classical extremum estimation framework is that it is not assumed that Q(&thgr;, P) has a unique minimizer in the parameter space &THgr;. The goal may be either to draw inferences about some unknown point in the set of minimizers of the population objective function or to draw inferences about the set of minimizers itself. In this paper, the object of interest is &THgr;0(P) = arg min&thgr;∈&THgr; Q(&thgr;, P), and so we seek random sets that contain this set with at least some prespecified probability asymptotically. We also consider situations where the object of interest is the image of &THgr;0(P) under a known function. Random sets that satisfy the desired coverage property are constructed under weak assumptions. Conditions are provided under which the confidence regions are asymptotically valid not only pointwise in P, but also uniformly in P. We illustrate the use of our methods with an empirical study of the impact of top-coding outcomes on inferences about the parameters of a linear regression. Finally, a modest simulation study sheds some light on the finite-sample behavior of our procedure. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02H01F; 001A02H02G; 001A02H02H FD : Intervalle confiance; Estimation non paramétrique; Régression statistique; Distribution statistique; Théorie approximation; Estimation statistique; Modèle économétrique; Fonction répartition; Donnée observation; Fonction objectif; Espace paramètre; Ensemble aléatoire; Probabilité; Loi probabilité; Etude méthode; Méthode empirique; Codage; Régression linéaire; Simulation statistique; Moment statistique; Méthode statistique; Econométrie; 60E05; 62F25; 62G15; 62J05; 62E17; Estimation paramétrique; Région confiance; Echantillon fini ED : Confidence interval; Non parametric estimation; Statistical regression; Statistical distribution; Approximation theory; Statistical estimation; Econometric model; Distribution function; Observation data; Objective function; Parameter space; Random set; Probability; Probability distribution; Method study; Empirical method; Coding; Linear regression; Statistical simulation; Statistical moment; Statistical method; Econometrics; Confidence region; Finite sample SD : Intervalo confianza; Estimación no paramétrica; Regresión estadística; Distribución estadística; Estimación estadística; Modelo econométrico; Función distribución; Dato observación; Función objetivo; Espacio par metro; Conjunto aleatorio; Probabilidad; Ley probabilidad; Estudio método; Método empírico; Codificación; Regresión lineal; Simulación estadística; Momento estadístico; Método estadístico; Econometría LO : INIST-2069.354000181446010060 247/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0135508 INIST ET : Generators' bidding behavior in the NYISO day-ahead wholesale electricity market AU : NING ZHANG; KYRTSOU (Catherine); MALLIARIS (Anastasios G.) AF : Applied Economics and Management Department, Cornell University/Ithaca NY 14853/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); University of Macedonia/Grèce (1 aut.); Loyola University Chicago/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy economics; ISSN 0140-9883; Coden EECODR; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 31; No. 6; Pp. 897-913; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper proposes a statistical and econometric model to analyze the generators' bidding behavior in the NYISO day-ahead wholesale electricity market. The generator level bidding data show very strong persistence in generators' grouping choices over time. Using dynamic random effect ordered probit model, we find that persistence is characterized by positive state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity and state dependence is more important than unobserved heterogeneity. The finding of true state dependence suggests a scope for economic policy intervention. If NYISO can implement an effective policy to switch generators from higher price groups to lower price groups, the effect is likely to be lasting. As a result, the market price can be lowered in the long-run. Generators' offered capacity is estimated by a two-stage sample selection model. The estimated results show that generators in higher-priced groups tend to withhold their capacity strategically to push up market prices. It further confirms the importance of an effective policy to turn generators into lower price groups in order to mitigate unexpected price spikes. The simulated market prices based on our estimated aggregate supply curve can replicate most volatility of actual DA market prices. Applying our models to different demand assumptions, we find that demand conditions can affect market prices significantly. It validates the importance of introducing demand side management during the restructure of electricity industry. CC : 001D06A01C4; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Electricité; Marché en gros; Enchère; Analyse comportementale; Producteur; Modèle économétrique; Modèle statistique; Modèle probit; Modèle simulation; Prix; Etude cas; New York FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Electricity; Wholesale market; Bidding; Behavioral analysis; Producer; Econometric model; Statistical model; Probit model; Simulation model; Price; Case study; New York EG : United States; North America; America SD : Electricidad; Mercado al por mayor; Subasta; Análisis conductual; Productor; Modelo econométrico; Modelo estadístico; Modelo probit; Modelo simulación; Precio; Estudio caso; Nueva York LO : INIST-18231.354000170359410080 248/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0128121 INIST ET : Cost-Effectiveness of the Diabetes Care Protocol, a Multifaceted Computerized Decision Support Diabetes Management Intervention That Reduces Cardiovascular Risk AU : CLEVERINGA (Frits G. W.); WELSING (Paco M. J.); VAN DEN DONK (Maureen); GORTER (Kees J.); NIESSEN (Louis W.); RUTTEN (Guy E. H. M.); REDEKOP (William K.) AF : Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center/Utrecht/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 6 aut.); Department of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (5 aut., 7 aut.); Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health/Baltimore, Maryland/Etats-Unis (5 aut.); School of Medicine, Policy and Practice, University of East Anglia/Norwich/Royaume-Uni (5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Diabetes care; ISSN 0149-5992; Coden DICAD2; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; Vol. 33; No. 2; Pp. 258-263; Bibl. 25 ref. LA : Anglais EA : OBJECTIVE - The Diabetes Care Protocol (DCP), a multifaceted computerized decision support diabetes management intervention, reduces cardiovascular risk of type 2 diabetic patients. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of DCP from a Dutch health care perspective. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - A cluster randomized trial provided data of DCP versus usual care. The 1-year follow-up patient data were extrapolated using a modified Dutch microsimulation diabetes model, computing individual lifetime health-related costs, and health effects. Incremental costs and effectiveness (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) were estimated using multivariate generalized estimating equations to correct for practice-level clustering and confounding. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were created. Stroke costs were calculated separately. Subgroup analyses examined patients with and without cardiovascular disease (CVD+ or CVD-patients, respectively). RESULTS- Excluding stroke, DCP patients lived longer (0.14 life-years, P = NS), experienced more QALYs (0.037, P = NS), and incurred higher total costs (<euro sign>1,415, P = NS), resulting in an ICER of <euro sign>38,243 per QALY gained. The likelihood of cost-effectiveness given a willingness-to-pay threshold of <euro sign>20,000 per QALY gained is 30%. DCP had a more favorable effect on CVD+ patients (ICER = <euro sign>14,814) than for CVD- patients (ICER = <euro sign>121,285). Coronary heart disease costs were reduced (<euro sign>-587, P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS - DCP reduces cardiovascular risk, resulting in only a slight improvement in QALYs, lower CVD costs, but higher total costs, with a high cost-effectiveness ratio. Cost-effective care can be achieved by focusing on cardiovascular risk factors in type 2 diabetic patients with a history of CVD. CC : 002B21E01A; 002B22; 002B30A11 FD : Diabète; Analyse coût efficacité; Economie santé; Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire; Soin; Informatisation; Décision; Prise de décision; Traitement; Conduite à tenir; Facteur risque; Risque cardiovasculaire; Endocrinologie; Maladie métabolique; Nutrition; Homme FG : Endocrinopathie ED : Diabetes mellitus; Cost efficiency analysis; Health economy; Cardiovascular disease; Care; Computerization; Decision; Decision making; Treatment; Clinical management; Risk factor; Cardiovascular risk; Endocrinology; Metabolic diseases; Nutrition; Human EG : Endocrinopathy SD : Diabetes; Análisis costo eficacia; Economía salud; Aparato circulatorio patología; Cuidado; Informatización; Decisión; Toma decision; Tratamiento; Actitud médica; Factor riesgo; Riesgo cardiovascular; Endocrinología; Metabolismo patología; Nutrición; Hombre LO : INIST-18054.354000189317420080 249/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0122186 INIST ET : Location Choice Modeling for Shopping and Leisure Activities with MATSim: Combining Microsimulation and Time Geography AU : HORNI (Andreas); SCOTT (Darren M.); BALMER (Michael); AXHAUSEN (Kay W.) AF : Institute for Transport Planning and Systems (IVT), ETH Zürich/8093 Zurich/Suisse (1 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.); Center for Spatial Analysis, School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster University/Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4K1/Canada (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; No. 2135; Pp. 87-95; Bibl. 26 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The activity-based multiagent simulation toolkit MATSim adopts a coevolutionary approach to capturing the patterns of people's activity scheduling and participation behavior at a high level of detail. Until now, the search space of the MATSim system was formed by every agent's route and time choice. This paper focuses on the crucial computational issues that have to be addressed when the system is being extended to include location choice. This results in an enormous search space that would be impossible to explore exhaustively within a reasonable time. With the use of a large-scale scenario, it is shown that the system rapidly converges toward a system's fixed point if the agents' choices are per iteration confined to local steps. This approach was inspired by local search methods in numerical optimization. The study shows that the approach can be incorporated easily and consistently into MATSim by using Hägerstrand's time-geographic approach. This paper additionally presents a first approach to improving the behavioral realism of the MATSim location choice module. A singly constrained model is created; it introduces competition for slots on the activity infrastructure, where the actual load is coupled with time-dependent capacity restraints for every activity location and is incorporated explicitly into the agent's location choice process. As expected, this constrained model reduces the number of implausibly overcrowded activity locations. To the authors' knowledge, incorporating competition in the activity infrastructure has received only marginal attention in multiagent simulations to date, and thus, this contribution is also meant to raise the issue by presenting this new model. CC : 001D15A FD : Transports; Comportement; Modélisation; Choix site; Activité; Loisir; Centre commercial; Modèle simulation; Scénario ED : Transportation; Behavior; Modeling; Site selection; Activity; Leisure; Shopping center; Simulation model; Script SD : Transportes; Conducta; Modelización; Elección sitio; Actividad; Ocio; Centro comercial; Modelo simulación; Argumento LO : INIST-10459B.354000180918690110 250/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0122157 INIST ET : Optimizing Signal Timings from the Field: VISGAOST and VISSIM-ASC/3 Software-in-the-Loop Simulation AU : STEVANOVIC (Aleksandar); STEVANOVIC (Jelka); MARTIN (Peter T.) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, 122 South Central Campus Drive, Room 104/Salt Lake City, Utah 84112-0561/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; No. 2128; Pp. 114-120; Bibl. 20 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Traditionally, when traffic signals are retimed, a significant difference is seen between signal timings recommended by optimization software and those implemented in field controllers. Those two sets of signal timings rarely match each other, and often a manual process is involved in transferring the data to and from the field controllers. A method is presented: signal timings are downloaded from field controllers, optimized by a software package, and then uploaded to field controllers. The method is VISGAOST, a stochastic optimization program, working with VISSIM-ASC/3 software-in-the-loop simulation to optimize the signal timings obtained from the field. The method was applied to optimize signal timings for a five-intersection urban arterial segment in West Valley City, Utah. Traffic operations simulated by a high-fidelity VISSIM represented field observations reliably. After thousands of potential signal timings were evaluated, VISGAOST found a better set of signal timings than those used in the field. The final signal timings were tested for robustness under fluctuating traffic in microsimulation. The test results show that these optimized signal timings are more robust than those used in the field. Further applications of the method are needed to test the field performance of the signal timings optimized by VISGAOST. CC : 001D14O05; 001D15C; 295 FD : Feu signalisation; Timing; Optimisation; Essai en place; Outil linguistique; Régulation trafic; Trafic routier; Intégration; Etude cas; Corridor; Résultat; Evaluation performance; Résultat mesure ED : Traffic lights; Timing; Optimization; In situ test; Linguistic tool; Traffic control; Road traffic; Integration; Case study; Corridor; Result; Performance evaluation; Measurement result SD : Semáforo; Timing; Optimización; Ensayo en sitio; Instrumento lingüístico; Regulación tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Integración; Estudio caso; Corredor; Resultado; Evaluación prestación; Resultado medición LO : INIST-10459B.354000180912650120 251/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0122155 INIST ET : Lost Time and Cycle Length for Actuated Traffic Signal AU : FURTH (Peter G.); CESME (Burak); MULLER (Theo H. J.) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, 360 Huntington Avenue, Room 400 SN/Boston, MA 02115/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); Transportation and Planning Department, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1/Delft 2628 CN/Pays-Bas (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; No. 2128; Pp. 152-160; Bibl. 7 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Time within an actuated signal cycle can be decomposed into time that is fully used, which is the saturation headway multiplied by the number of passing vehicles, and time that is wasted or lost. Activity network modeling is used to show the interaction between signal timing events and traffic flow transitions. Seven components of generalized lost time are identified: those associated with start-up, minimum green, parallel queue discharge (for simultaneous gap-out), extension green, parallel extension (for nonsimultaneous gap-out), the passing of the critical gap, and phase end. Simple formulas can be used to estimate all of these components for many practical cases, allowing one to estimate average cycle length without iteration. The modeling framework accounts for the dual-ring structure with minimum green and maximum green constraints and on-off settings for recall and simultaneous gap-out. Experiments with microsimulation software verify the formulas developed. The formulas show the sensitivity of lost time, and therefore average cycle length, to parameters that a designer can control including detector setback, critical gap, gap-out settings, and number of lanes. They also show sensitivity to total demand and to the ratio of noncritical to critical phase volumes. CC : 001D14O05; 001D15C; 295 FD : Feu signalisation; Signalisation commandée par trafic; Trafic routier; Modélisation; Modèle prévision; Longueur; Cycle ED : Traffic lights; Traffic actuated signal control; Road traffic; Modeling; Forecast model; Length; Cycle SD : Semáforo; Señalización regulada por tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Modelización; Modelo previsión; Longitud; Ciclo LO : INIST-10459B.354000180912650160 252/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0117907 INIST ET : A dynamic input-output model for nascent bioenergy supply chains AU : CRUZ (Jose B. JR); TAN (Raymond R.); CULABA (Alvin B.); BALLACILLO (Jo-Anne); YAN (J.); LIN (T.) AF : Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, The Ohio State University. 205 Dreese Laboratory, 2015 Neil Avenue/Columbus, OH 43210-1272/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Center for Engineering and Sustainable Development Research, De La Salle University, 2401 Taft Avenue/1004 Manila/Philippines (2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.); Royal Institute of Technology/Stockholm/Suède (1 aut.); Mälardalen University/Västerås/Suède (1 aut.); Asian Development Bank/Inconnu (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Applied energy; ISSN 0306-2619; Coden APENDX; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 86; No. SUP1; S86-S94; Bibl. 51 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper presents a novel multi-time-stage input-output-based modeling framework for simulating the dynamics of bioenergy supply chains. One of the key assumptions used in the model is that the production level at the next time-stage of each segment of the energy supply chain adjusts to the output surplus or deficit relative to targets at the current time period. Furthermore, unlike conventional input-output models, the technology matrix in this approach need not be square, and thus can include coefficients denoting flows of environmental goods, such as natural resources or pollutants. Introducing a feedback control term enables the system to regulate the dynamics, thus extending the model further. This is an important feature since the uncontrolled dynamic model exhibits oscillatory or unstable behavior under some conditions; in principle, the control term allows such undesirable characteristics to be suppressed. Numerical simulations of a simple, two-sector case study are given to illustrate dynamic behavior under different scenarios. Although the case study uses only a hypothetical system, preliminary comparisons are made between the simulation results and some broad trends seen in real bioenergy systems. Finally, some of the main policy implications of the model are discussed based on the general dynamic characteristics seen in the case study. In particular, insights from control theory can be used to develop policy interventions to impart desirable dynamic characteristics to nascent or emerging biofuel supply chains. These interventions can be used to guide the growth of bioenergy supplies along final demand trajectories with minimal fluctuation and no instability. CC : 001D06A01C5; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Biocarburant; Approvisionnement; Modélisation; Modèle entrée sortie; Modèle économétrique; Modèle Léontief; Modèle dynamique; Scénario; Technologie; Flux information; Réponse dynamique; Ressource; Production ED : Biofuel; Supply; Modeling; Input output model; Econometric model; Leontief model; Dynamic model; Script; Technology; Information flow; Dynamic response; Resource; Production SD : Biocarburante; Aprovisionamiento; Modelización; Modelo input-output; Modelo econométrico; Modelo Leontief; Modelo dinámico; Argumento; Tecnología; Flujo información; Respuesta dinámica; Recurso; Producción LO : INIST-17162.354000171139120090 253/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0113038 INIST ET : Replication of Work Zone Capacity Values in a Simulation Model AU : CHATTERJEE (Indrajit); EDARA (Praveen); MENNENI (Sandeep); SUN (Carlos) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Missouri-Columbia/Columbia, MO 65211/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 4 aut.); PTV America, Inc., 9755 Southwest Barnes Road, Suite 550/Portland, OR 97225/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; No. 2130; Pp. 138-148; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Evaluating the traffic impacts of work zones is vital for any transportation agency to plan and schedule work activity. Traffic impacts can be estimated by using microscopic simulation models. One challenge in using these software models is obtaining the desired work zone capacity values, which tend to vary from state to state. Thus, the default parameter values in the model that are suitable for normal traffic conditions are unsuitable for work zone conditions, let alone for conditions specific to particular states. Although a few studies have been conducted on parameter selection to obtain desired capacity values, none of them have provided a convenient look-up table (or chart) for the parameter values that will replicate field-observed capacities. Without such provision it has not been possible for state agencies to use any of the research recommendations. This study provides the practitioner a simple method for choosing appropriate values of driving behavior parameters in the VISSIM microsimulation model to match the desired field capacity for work zones operating in a typical early-merge system. The two most significant car-following parameters and one lane-changing parameter were selected and varied to obtain different work zone capacity values. CC1 is the desired time headway, CC2 is the longitudinal following threshold during a following process, and the safety distance reduction factor is representative of lane-changing aggressiveness. It has been verified that the recommended parameter values not only produce the desired capacities but also create traffic conditions consistent with traffic flow theory. CC : 001D14O06; 001D15C; 295 FD : Route; Chantier; Voirie; Capacité; Trafic routier; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Programme simulation; Méthodologie; Expérimentation; Résultat ED : Highway; Working site; Road work; Capacity; Road traffic; Modeling; Simulation model; Simulation program; Methodology; Experimentation; Result SD : Carretera; Taller; Vialidad; Capacidad; Tráfico carretera; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Programa simulación; Metodología; Experimentación; Resultado LO : INIST-10459B.354000180829670170 254/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0112982 INIST ET : Turbo Roundabouts: Estimation of Capacity AU : FORTUIJN (Lambertus G. H.) AF : Transport and Planning Department, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, TU Delft (Delft University of Technology), Stevinweg 1/2628 CN Delft/Pays-Bas (1 aut.); Province of South Holland, P.O. Box 90602/2509 LP, The Hague/Pays-Bas (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; No. 2130; Pp. 83-92; Bibl. 18 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The Dutch turbo roundabout is characterized by predictable lane use and radial connecting entries. To calculate the capacity, in 1997 the multilane roundabout explorer was developed by modification of the capacity model of Bovy, which considered both separated lanes and pseudoconflict. Because of its linear structure, this model did not take into account multilane roundabout properties in a good way. Therefore a new model was developed by modification of the model of Hagring. Using only the gap acceptance approach to calibrate the parameters is not sufficient because the pseudoconflict is not taken into account. A combination with a stream approach is necessary. For validation of an analytic model, it is important to realize that the distribution of gaps offered in two flows simultaneously is determined primarily by a stochastic process. Thus, it is possible to test the effect of the distribution of the flows over two circulatory lanes by using a microsimulation model. The parameters needed to tailor VISSIM microsimulation software for this purpose were estimated. It is concluded that a VISSIM model may be suitable for the analysis of both single-lane and two-lane roundabouts. This paper deals with this combined approach. The findings are that (a) the pseudoconflict should be taken into account and (b) the turbo roundabout will have a larger capacity than the Dutch standard concentric double-lane roundabout because of the better circulatory lane-split. CC : 001D14O02; 001D15C; 295 FD : Carrefour giratoire; Ecoulement trafic; Trafic routier; Capacité; Modélisation; Estimation; Méthode analytique; Etalonnage; Conflit; Etude comparative; Simulation; Résultat ED : Roundabout; Traffic flow; Road traffic; Capacity; Modeling; Estimation; Analytical method; Calibration; Conflict; Comparative study; Simulation; Result SD : Bifurcación giratoria; Flujo tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Capacidad; Modelización; Estimación; Método analítico; Contraste; Conflicto; Estudio comparativo; Simulación; Resultado LO : INIST-10459B.354000180829670110 255/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0108986 INIST ET : Vehicle Capacity and Fuel Consumption in Household Fleets: Constraint-Based Microsimulation Model AU : BOLON (Kevin); KEOLEIAN (Greg); KOSTYNIUK (Lidia P.) AF : School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Dana Building, 440 Church Street/Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1041/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, 2901 Baxter Road/Ann Arbor, MI 4B109-2150/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; No. 2139; Pp. 73-80; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Vehicle capability is one of the factors that constrain the set of transportation options available for personal transportation. The capacity for carrying passengers and cargo is of particular interest when energy consumption is considered, because the use of more efficient vehicles may be limited for trips with higher load requirements. This paper presents a method for considering trip capacity requirements when the available vehicles are assigned to the trips on a household activity schedule. A constraint-based vehicle assignment model that uses the trip data from the 2001 National Household Travel Survey as an example is introduced. Initial results from the analysis of these data show that by optimally assigning existing vehicles to trips, the average value of potential fuel savings ranges from 5% to 23%, depending on the size and vehicle type composition of the household fleet. Households with more vehicles in the fleet and a more diverse range of vehicles to choose from are able to achieve greater fuel savings than those with more homogeneous fleets. Considering the extent to which household vehicle assignment decisions were already consistent with the minimization of fuel consumption, in 2001 actual household vehicle assignment was, on average, only slightly better than random. CC : 001D15C; 001D06D01; 230 FD : Automobile; Consommation carburant; Ménage; Flotte; Capacité; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Analyse contrainte; Application; Enquête; Etude comparative; Résultat ED : Motor car; Motor fuel consumption; Household; Fleet; Capacity; Modeling; Simulation model; Stress analysis; Application; Survey; Comparative study; Result SD : Automóvil; Consumo carburante; Familia; Capacidad; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Análisis tensión; Aplicación; Encuesta; Estudio comparativo; Resultado LO : INIST-10459B.354000180829910090 256/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0108965 INIST ET : Sensitivity Testing with the Oregon Statewide Integrated Model AU : WEIDNER (Tara); KNUDSON (Becky); PICADO (Rosella); HUNT (J. D.) AF : Parsons Brinckerhoff, 400 Southwest Sixth Avenue, Suite 802/Portland, OR 97204-1412/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Oregon Department of Transportation, 555 13th Street Northeast/Salem, OR 97301-4178/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Parsons Brinckerhoff, 999 Third Avenue, Suite 2200/Seattle, WA 98104/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive Northwest/Calgary, Alberta T2N 1 N4/Canada (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; No. 2133; Pp. 109-122; Bibl. 22 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Oregon has a long history of developing and using integrated economic, land use-transport models. Development of the Oregon Statewide Integrated Model (SWIM) was commissioned by the Oregon Department of Transportation as part of its Transportation and Land Use Model Improvement Program within the larger Oregon Modeling Improvement Program. The first version model, now named SWIM1, has been used in numerous applications since the late 1990s. A more extensive second version, SWIM2, is now available. It uses the PECAS economic input-output activity allocation framework, an aggregate model of spatial development and microsimulation models of freight and person transport. This paper describes the work considered in the later stages of development of the SWIM2 model, including results of sensitivity testing and reports on concurrent actions to transfer the model to agency operation. The sensitivity tests considered three alternative scenarios covering the evolution of the statewide spatial economic and transport systems over a 19-year period. Each scenario was compared to a reference case. In one scenario, highway capacity was increased substantially along an Interstate corridor radiating out from the Portland metropolitan area for more than 100 mi. In the other two scenarios, the costs for vehicle travel were increased four- and 10-fold over 1998 costs. The model system was found to respond consistent with a priori expectations. Population and employment shift to areas of comparatively better accessibilities, urban densities change, trip lengths and modes change, and floor space development and prices respond to these changes in patterns that evolve across the state over time. CC : 001D15B FD : Demande transport; Prévision demande; Occupation sol; Oregon; Modélisation; Gestion intégrée; Analyse sensibilité; Application; Zone urbaine; Capacité; Réseau routier; Scénario; Analyse coût; Résultat; Evaluation performance FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transport demand; Demand forecasting; Land use; Oregon; Modeling; Integrated management; Sensitivity analysis; Application; Urban area; Capacity; Road network; Script; Cost analysis; Result; Performance evaluation EG : United States; North America; America SD : Demanda transporte; Previsión demanda; Ocupación terreno; Oregon; Modelización; Gestión integrada; Análisis sensibilidad; Aplicación; Zona urbana; Capacidad; Red carretera; Argumento; Análisis costo; Resultado; Evaluación prestación LO : INIST-10459B.354000180829830120 257/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0108946 INIST ET : Anticipating Welfare Impacts via Travel Demand Forecasting Models: Comparison of Aggregate and Activity-Based Approaches for the Austin, Texas, Region AU : LEMP (Jason D.); KOCKELMAN (Kara M.) AF : Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of I exas at Austin, 6.508. Cockrell Jr. Hall/Austin, IX 78712-1076/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of I exas at Austin, 6.9 E. Cockrell Jr. Hall/Austin, I X 78712-1076/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; No. 2133; Pp. 11-22; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A great disparity exists between the direction of travel demand forecasting by researchers and the travel demand models used by transportation planning organizations. Activity-based models of travel demand have become increasingly studied in the academic realm, and significant advances have been made in recent years. However, travel demand forecasting tools used in practice have lagged and rely on traditional, aggregate four- or five-step approaches. One reason behind the divergence in methods is the lack of work that directly compares performance of the two approaches. This research provides such a comparison, with an emphasis on calculations of traveler welfare. A traditional, aggregate model and an activity-based microsimulation model of travel demand were developed in parallel by using the same data for Austin, Texas. The models were applied for a base scenario and for several policy scenarios to test model performance and sensitivity to inputs. The spatial distribution of traveler welfare implied by these scenarios illuminates a variety of key differences in the models' performance and suggests that the activity-based model enjoys a greater sensitivity to inputs. Additional outputs demonstrate the level of segmentation that can be attained in model outputs using microsimulation methods. The comparative analysis of these two competing approaches to travel demand forecasting also offers some insight into the practical benefits of an activity-based approach. CC : 001D15B FD : Demande transport; Prévision demande; Modèle prévision; Etude comparative; Etude impact; Activité; Texas; Affectation trafic; Méthode calcul; Bien-être; Scénario; Résultat FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transport demand; Demand forecasting; Forecast model; Comparative study; Impact study; Activity; Texas; Traffic assignment; Computing method; Well being; Script; Result EG : United States; North America; America SD : Demanda transporte; Previsión demanda; Modelo previsión; Estudio comparativo; Estudio impacto; Actividad; Texas; Afectación tráfico; Método cálculo; Bienestar; Argumento; Resultado LO : INIST-10459B.354000180829830020 258/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0108886 INIST ET : How Parameters of Microscopic Traffic Flow Models Relate to Traffic Dynamics in Simulation: Implications for Model Calibration AU : PUNZO (Vincenzo); CIUFFO (Biagio) AF : Department of Transportation Engineering, Università di Napoli &dquot;Federico II,&dquot; Via Claudio/80125 Napoli/Italie (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; No. 2124; Pp. 249-256; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Several methodological issues in setting up a calibration process for traffic microsimulation models are still unresolved. The influence of individual parameters of microscopic models on simulated traffic dynamics is also far from clear. To address those issues, the paper sets up a methodology based on the sensitivity analysis of traffic flow models (the one used here is AIMSUN). Sensitivity analysis was performed by means of a series of 30 analyses of variance. These were designed to evaluate the effect of parameters on the variance of the simulated outputs and to draw a general inference about (a) the proper interval for the aggregation of measurements, (b) the proper measure of performance (e.g., traffic counts versus speeds), (c) the proper traffic measurement locations, and (d) the subset of parameters to calibrate. The analysis allowed quantification of the effect of the single parameters on different traffic phases. For example, it was possible to quantify the extent of the influence of the parameter reaction time on simulated outputs in locations in which free flow, rather than congested conditions, occurs. The great differences between parameters in affecting the different traffic phases suggested that parameters are likely to be calibrated independently, that is, using data from different locations. The first evidence of the possibility of breaking the calibration problem into two subproblems is given. This entails great benefits in regard to computational time, given the exponential computational complexity of the calibration problem. CC : 001D15B FD : Ecoulement trafic; Etude théorique; Modèle simulation; Modèle dynamique; Modèle microscopique; Etalonnage; Méthodologie; Implémentation; Etude cas; Scénario; Autoroute; Italie; Résultat mesure FG : Europe ED : Traffic flow; Theoretical study; Simulation model; Dynamic model; Microscopic model; Calibration; Methodology; Implementation; Case study; Script; Freeway; Italy; Measurement result EG : Europe SD : Flujo tráfico; Estudio teórico; Modelo simulación; Modelo dinámico; Modelo microscópico; Contraste; Metodología; Implementación; Estudio caso; Argumento; Autopista; Italia; Resultado medición LO : INIST-10459B.354000180829590250 259/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0108879 INIST ET : Effects of Heterogeneity on Self-Organized Pedestrian Flows AU : CAMPANELLA (Mario); HOOGENDOORN (Serge P.); DAAMEN (Winnie) AF : Department of Transport and Planning, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geo-sciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1/2628 CN Delft/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; No. 2124; Pp. 148-156; Bibl. 18 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This investigation focuses on how the heterogeneity of pedestrian characteristics influences the buildup of congestion and affects the efficiency of pedestrian flows. Three commonly used parameters in pedestrian models-desired speed, body size, and reaction time-were varied in the population. Real pedestrian flows are heterogeneous regarding pedestrian characteristics. However, not much is known about the way that affects the qualities of the flow and how important it is to the outcomes of microsimulation models. The NOMAD model developed by Delft University of Technology is used to perform simulations in which the aforementioned heterogeneity is introduced. The investigation was carried out by creating bidirectional flows with fixed demands. The flows were analyzed by observing the development of breakdowns, average speeds, and average densities for different demands. It is shown that the influence of heterogeneity on breakdown probabilities and flow efficiency is considerable. To investigate this further, the dynamic lane formation process is investigated in detail. In addition to further insights into the causes for breakdown, it is found that the number of lanes increases with the decrease in heterogeneity in desired speed and in body size. However the opposite happens for heterogeneity in reaction time. Results indicate that heterogeneity in the population has a large impact on the flow quality and should be included in models explicitly to improve prediction performance. CC : 001D15B; 001D15C FD : Ecoulement trafic; Etude théorique; Modèle simulation; Trafic piéton; Hétérogénéité; Autoorganisation; Dispositif expérimental; Scénario; Résultat; Simulation; Probabilité; Validation ED : Traffic flow; Theoretical study; Simulation model; Pedestrian traffic; Heterogeneity; Self organization; Experimental device; Script; Result; Simulation; Probability; Validation SD : Flujo tráfico; Estudio teórico; Modelo simulación; Tráfico peatones; Heterogeneidad; Autoorganización; Dispositivo experimental; Argumento; Resultado; Simulación; Probabilidad; Validación LO : INIST-10459B.354000180829590140 260/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0101324 INIST ET : Scheduling Buses to Take Advantage of Transit Signal Priority AU : ALTUN (Selman Z.); FURTH (Peter G.) AF : Kittelson & Associates, Inc., Suite 800, 33 North Stone Avenue/Tucson, AZ 85701/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, 400 SN, 360 Huntington Avenue/Boston, MA 02115/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; No. 2111; Pp. 50-59; Bibl. 9 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Transit signal priority can improve bus operations when it is applied to a route without making any changes to its route design or management; however, benefits can be greater if service design and management policies are purposely altered to take advantage of transit signal priority. Service design issues include generating carefully constructed schedules for use with conditional priority and deciding whether to locate stops on the near side or far side of intersections. Management issues include using conditional priority as a means to give priority only to late buses and deciding whether to hold buses at bus stops until a scheduled departure time, in case conditional priority itself does not offer the desired level of operational control. An optimal level of aggressiveness in the running time schedule is sought as a balance between mean running time with and without priority, assuming that priority will be conditional. With a more aggressive schedule, buses will be late and therefore will request (and get) priority more often; however, a more aggressive schedule also offers less slack to compensate for random delays. Analysis uses both a spreadsheet-based simulation model and a traffic microsimulation model that account for random delays at dispatch and at traffic signals, the effect of crowding on dwell time, and choice of priority and operational control tactics. It is found that optimal performance uses conditional priority and holding, but with an aggressive schedule, leading to substantial reductions in mean running time, standard deviation of running time, headway irregularity, and crowding. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Transport routier; Transport voyageur; Ordonnancement; Signal; Priorité; Application; Oregon; Méthode calcul; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Méthode Monte Carlo FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road transportation; Passenger transportation; Scheduling; Signal; Priority; Application; Oregon; Computing method; Modeling; Simulation model; Monte Carlo method EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transporte por carretera; Transporte pasajero; Reglamento; Señal; Prioridad; Aplicación; Oregon; Método cálculo; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Método Monte Carlo LO : INIST-10459B.354000171586770070 261/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0098448 INIST ET : Assessing the Contribution and the Feasibility of a Citywide Personal Rapid Transit System AU : MUIR (Helen); JEFFERY (David); MAY (Anthony D.); TRIPODI (Antonino); SHEPHERD (Simon); VAA (Torgeir) AF : Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, University Road/Leeds LS2 9JT/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 3 aut., 5 aut.); Transportation Research Group, University of Southampton/Southampton, S017 1BJ/Royaume-Uni (2 aut.); Research Centre for Transport and Logistic, University of Rome &dquot;La Sapienza,&dquot; via Eudossiana, 18/00184, Rome/Italie (4 aut.); Transport Safety and Informatics, S. P. Andersens Road 5/7465 Trondheim/Norvège (6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; No. 2110; Pp. 163-170; Bibl. 13 ref. LA : Anglais EA : There is renewed interest in Europe in the potential role of new automated technologies for urban transport. One such system is personal rapid transit (PRT), a system of automated demand-responsive vehicles designed to transport individuals directly to their destinations. Assessing the contribution of such a system when applied extensively in an urban area is challenging. Methods used to assess the potential viability of traditional systems have to be updated to incorporate the new technologies. Several interrelated methods are examined to assess the feasibility and potential benefits of a citywide PRT system by using a case study region. Microsimulation analysis is used to obtain relationships between network characteristics, level of service, demand, and system performances. Outputs from this analysis feed into the strategic model that is used to test the contribution that such a system will make. Outputs from both the microsimulation and strategic modeling are used in the creation and running of a business case tool that provides the basis of the economic justification for such a scheme. Finally, barriers to the introduction of a PRT system are described, along with means of overcoming them. CC : 001D15A FD : Système transport; Faisabilité; Transport urbain; Evaluation projet; Technologie; Application; Modèle simulation; Modélisation; Stratégie; Transport public; Etude cas; Angleterre; Implémentation; Transport en commun individuel FG : Grande Bretagne; Royaume-Uni; Europe ED : Transportation system; Feasibility; Urban transportation; Project evaluation; Technology; Application; Simulation model; Modeling; Strategy; Public transportation; Case study; England; Implementation; Personal rapid transit EG : Great Britain; United Kingdom; Europe SD : Sistema de transporte; Practicabilidad; Transporte urbano; Evaluación proyecto; Tecnología; Aplicación; Modelo simulación; Modelización; Estrategia; Transporte público; Estudio caso; Inglaterra; Implementación LO : INIST-10459B.354000171772220200 262/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0088398 INIST ET : Bayesian Calibration of Microsimulation Models AU : RUTTER (Carolyn M.); MIGLIORETTI (Diana L.); SAVARINO (James E.) AF : Group Health Center for Health Studies/Seattle, WA 98101/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); Department of Biostatistics and Health Services, University of Washington/WA 98195/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Deparment of Biostatistics, University of Washington/WA 98195/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of the American Statistical Association; ISSN 0162-1459; Coden JSTNAL; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; Vol. 104; No. 488; Pp. 1338-1350; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : Microsimulation models that describe disease processes synthesize information from multiple sources and can be used to estimate the effects of screening and treatment on cancer incidence and mortality at a population level. These models are characterized by simulation of individual event histories for an idealized population of interest. Microsimulation models are complex and invariably include parameters that are not well informed by existing data. Therefore, a key component of model development is the choice of parameter values. Microsimulation model parameter values are selected to reproduce expected or known results though the process of model calibration. Calibration may be done by perturbing model parameters one at a time or by using a search algorithm. As an alternative, we propose a Bayesian method to calibrate microsimulation models that uses Markov chain Monte Carlo. We show that this approach converges to the target distribution and use a simulation study to demonstrate its finite-sample performance. Although computationally intensive, this approach has several advantages over previously proposed methods, including the use of statistical criteria to select parameter values, simultaneous calibration of multiple parameters to multiple data sources, incorporation of information via prior distributions, description of parameter identifiability, and the ability to obtain interval estimates of model parameters. We develop a microsimulation model for colorectal cancer and use our proposed method to calibrate model parameters. The microsimulation model provides a good fit to the calibration data. We find evidence that some parameters are identified primarily through prior distributions. Our results underscore the need to incorporate multiple sources of variability (i.e., due to calibration data, unknown parameters, and estimated parameters and predicted values) when calibrating and applying microsimulation models. CC : 001A02H02A; 001A02H02N; 001A02H02H; 001A02I01Q FD : Estimation statistique; Estimation non paramétrique; Méthode stochastique; Distribution statistique; Théorie approximation; Analyse numérique; Estimation Bayes; Ajustement modèle; Efficacité traitement; Mortalité; Modèle simulation; Algorithme recherche; Modèle Markov; Méthode Monte Carlo; Fonction répartition; Simulation statistique; Paramètre statistique; Information a priori; Loi a priori; Identifiabilité; Chaîne Markov; Méthode statistique; Application; 62G05; 65C40; 62E17; 65C05; 60E05; 60J10; Effet traitement; Algorithme QR; Echantillon fini ED : Statistical estimation; Non parametric estimation; Stochastic method; Statistical distribution; Approximation theory; Numerical analysis; Bayes estimation; Model matching; Treatment efficiency; Mortality; Simulation model; Search algorithm; Markov model; Monte Carlo method; Distribution function; Statistical simulation; Statistical parameter; Prior information; Prior distribution; Identifiability; Markov chain; Statistical method; Application; Treatment effect; OR algorithm; Finite sample SD : Estimación estadística; Estimación no paramétrica; Método estocástico; Distribución estadística; Análisis numérico; Estimación Bayes; Ajustamiento modelo; Eficacia tratamiento; Mortalidad; Modelo simulación; Algoritmo búsqueda; Modelo Markov; Método Monte Carlo; Función distribución; Simulación estadística; Parámetro estadístico; Información a priori; Ley a priori; Identificabilidad; Cadena Markov; Método estadístico; Aplicación LO : INIST-3094.354000180829000030 263/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0072468 INIST ET : Results of a Markov Model Analysis to Assess the Cost-Effectiveness of Statin Therapy for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in Korea: The Korean Individual-Microsimulation Model for Cardiovascular Health Interventions AU : KANG (Hye-Young); KO (Su-Kyoung); LIEW (Danny) AF : Graduate School of Public Health, Institute of Health Services Research, Yonsei University/Seoul/Corée, République de (1 aut.); Outcomes Research Department, Pfizer Pharmaceuticals Korea Limited/Seoul/Corée, République de (2 aut.); Department of Medicine, St. Vincent's Hospital, University of Melbourne/Fitzroy, Victoria/Australie (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Clinical therapeutics; ISSN 0149-2918; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; Vol. 31; No. 12; Pp. 2919-2930; Bibl. 35 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: Although hyperlipidemia is well recognized as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), there has been no appraisal of the economic impact of statin therapy in Korea. Objective: The aim of this model analysis was to determine the cost-effectiveness of statin therapy versus no treatment for the primary prevention of CVD over a lifetime in Korea, from a health care system perspective. Methods: We developed the Korean Individual-Microsimulation Model for Cardiovascular Health Interventions (KIMCHI), an epidemiologic and economic Markov model of first-onset CVD in Korea in which all individuals began the simulation in the health state alive without CVD, and moved among the 4 health states (alive without CVD, alive with CVD, dead from CVD, and dead from non-CVD causes) in yearly cycles for any specified time horizon, up to 40 years. KIMCHI was populated with 372 subjects from the 2005 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHNES) who were aged >45 years, did not have a history of myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke, and met current Korean reimbursement criteria for treatment with lipid-lowering medications. The probability of first-onset CVD was estimated for each study participant individually, based on an Asian population-specific risk equation that relied on an individual's sex, age, serum total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, current smoking status, diabetes mellitus status, and body mass index. Statin treatment was represented by a hybrid of atorvastatin and simvastatin (the most popular statins in Korea), the lipid-modifying effects of which were derived from a published meta-analysis. Data regarding utilities and costs of CVD (both those covered and not covered by insurance) were derived from published local sources. Results: In the base case, the estimated incremental cost-utility ratio was 15,134,284 Korean won (KRW) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, and the estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was 20,657,829 KRW per life-year gained (LYG) (1200 KRW ≃ US $1). Based on a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 30 million KRW per QALY saved, there was a 93.7% probability that statin therapy would be cost-effective. Given a WTP threshold of 20 million KRW per QALY, there was a 53.8% probability of being cost-effective. The probabilities at WTP thresholds of 30 and 20 million KRW per LYG were 62.4% and 25.8%, respectively. Conclusions: Based on this analysis using data from the 2005 KNHNES and the KIMCHI model, statin therapy is likely to be cost-effective for the primary prevention of CVD among Koreans aged >45 years. The probability of being cost-effective was greater at a threshold of 30 million KRW per QALY (93.7%) than at 20 million KRW per QALY (53.8%). CC : 002B02; 002B22A; 002B17C FD : Modèle Markov; Economie santé; Analyse coût efficacité; Dérivé de la statine; Traitement; Primaire; Prévention; Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire; Corée; Homme; Appareil circulatoire; Santé; Hyperlipémie; Accident cérébrovasculaire; Hypolipémiant; Lipide FG : Asie; Maladie métabolique; Dyslipémie; Pathologie cérébrovasculaire; Pathologie du système nerveux; Pathologie de l'encéphale; Pathologie du système nerveux central; Pathologie des vaisseaux sanguins ED : Markov model; Health economy; Cost efficiency analysis; Statin derivative; Treatment; Primary; Prevention; Cardiovascular disease; Korea; Human; Circulatory system; Health; Hyperlipemia; Stroke; Antilipemic agent; Lipids EG : Asia; Metabolic diseases; Dyslipemia; Cerebrovascular disease; Nervous system diseases; Cerebral disorder; Central nervous system disease; Vascular disease SD : Modelo Markov; Economía salud; Análisis costo eficacia; Statina derivado; Tratamiento; Primario; Prevención; Aparato circulatorio patología; Corea; Hombre; Aparato circulatorio; Salud; Hiperlipemia; Accidente cerebrovascular; Hipolipemiante; Lípido LO : INIST-18353.354000180809950140 264/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0069327 INIST ET : Cost-utility of long-term strontium ranelate treatment for postmenopausal osteoporotic women AU : HILIGSMANN (M.); BRUYERE (O.); REGINSTER (J.-Y.) AF : Department of Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics, University of Liège, Avenue de l'hôpital 3, Bat B23/4000 Liège/Belgique (2 aut., 3 aut.); Department of Economics, University of Liège/Liège/Belgique (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Osteoporosis international; ISSN 0937-941X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2010; Vol. 21; No. 1; Pp. 157-165; Bibl. 50 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Summary The results of this study suggested that long-term treatment with strontium ranelate over 5 years is cost-effective compared to no treatment for postmenopausal osteoporotic women. Introduction This study aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of long-term strontium ranelate treatment for postmenopausal osteoporotic women. Methods A validated Markov microsimulation model with a Belgian healthcare cost perspective was used to assess the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of strontium ranelate compared to no treatment, on a basis of calcium/vit D supplementation if needed. Analyses were performed for women aged 70, 75, and 80 years either with a bone mineral density T-score≤-2.5 SD or with prevalent vertebral fractures. The relative risk of fracture during therapy was derived from the Treatment of Peripheral Osteoporosis Study trial over 5 years of treatment. Parameter uncertainty was evaluated using both univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Results Strontium ranelate was cost-saving at the age of 80 years in both populations. For women with a T-score≤ -2.5 SD, the costs per QALY gained of strontium ranelate were respectively <euro sign>15,096 and <euro sign>6,913 at 70 and 75 years of age while these values were <euro sign>23,426 and <euro sign>9,698 for women with prevalent vertebral fractures. Sensitivity analyses showed that the results were robust over a wide range of assumptions. Conclusion This study suggested that, compared to no treatment, long-term strontium ranelate treatment is cost-effective for postmenopausal osteoporotic women. CC : 002B15A FD : Ostéoporose; Ranélate de strontium; Coût; Long terme; Traitement; Postménopause; Femme; Rhumatologie FG : Homme; Economie santé; Pathologie du système ostéoarticulaire; Santé publique ED : Osteoporosis; Strontium ranelate; Costs; Long term; Treatment; Postmenopause; Woman; Rheumatology EG : Human; Health economy; Diseases of the osteoarticular system; Public health SD : Osteoporosis; Ranelat d'estronci; Coste; Largo plazo; Tratamiento; Postmenopausia; Mujer; Reumatología LO : INIST-22974.354000189958530170 265/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0048996 INIST ET : The transportation planning process in Slovakia AU : CELKO (J.); GAVULOVA (A.); DRLICIAK (M.); BREBBIA (C. A.) AF : Department of Highway Engineering, Civil Engineering Faculty, University of Zilina/Slovaquie (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transactions on the built environment; ISSN 1746-4498; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. v. 107; Pp. 213-222; Bibl. 9 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The quality traffic-planning process is an important tool for achieving sustainable traffic. The modern platform for modelling and simulating traffic relations has also begun to be utilized in Slovakia. The Department of Civil Engineering at the University of Zilina uses German software PTV VISION. The complex multi-modal traffic model for Zilina town was created with PTV VISION modules (Visem, Visum, Vissim). The article presents the process of formation, calibration and practical utilization of a traffic model for city traffic problem solution. The micro simulation of critical zones amends the traffic model. The classic four-stage disaggregate process was applied for Zilina transport modelling. The town was split into 108 traffic zones. The traffic zones were classified by social and demographic characteristics. Six groups of population were classified within the study area. The matrices of interzonal transport relations were used as output data of the VISEM module and the matrices were used for assignments of the traffic network. Parameters in the infrastructure network and traffic zones were defined in the VISUM module. The result of many years experience in the field of traffic engineering was inserted in the traffic model. We have used our large database of traffic surveys and the results of transport-sociological analyses. The data were useful for the setting and calibration of the traffic model. We set up new local parameters for a distribution function. The impact of new developing areas and induced traffic relations on the central part of Zilina was also observed. Next, the new transport relations and traffic problems were analysed. This chosen part of the transport network was imported into a microsimulation model in the VISSIM. New alternative transport solutions and the impact on the infrastructure loading were explored in microscopic models. The quality of traffic load depends on the input data in the microsimulation. The best way is by using the complex macroscopic point of view. CC : 001D15B FD : Transport urbain; Planification; Slovaquie; Modélisation; Simulation; Congrès international FG : Europe ED : Urban transportation; Planning; Slovakia; Modeling; Simulation; International conference EG : Europe SD : Transporte urbano; Planificación; Eslovaquia; Modelización; Simulación; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-Y 39389.354000172999500200 266/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0031636 INIST ET : Short and long run causality measures: Theory and inference AU : DUFOUR (Jean-Marie); TAAMOUTI (Abderrahim) AF : McGill University, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative (CIREQ)/Canada (1 aut.); Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations (CIRANO)/Canada (1 aut.); Departamento de Economía, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid Calle Madrid/126 28903 Getafe (Madrid)/Espagne (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2010; Vol. 154; No. 1; Pp. 42-58; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : The concept of causality introduced by Wiener [Wiener, N., 1956. The theory of prediction, In: E.F. Beckenback, ed., The Theory of Prediction, McGraw-Hill, New York (Chapter 8)] and Granger [Granger, C. W.J., 1969. Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods, Econometrica 37, 424-459] is defined in terms of predictability one period ahead. This concept can be generalized by considering causality at any given horizon h as well as tests for the corresponding non-causality [Dufour, J.-M., Renault, E., 1998. Short-run and long-run causality in time series: Theory. Econometrica 66,1099-1125; Dufour, J.-M., Pelletier, D., Renault, É., 2006. Short run and long run causality in time series: Inference, Journal of Econometrics 132 (2), 337-362]. Instead of tests for non-causality at a given horizon, we study the problem of measuring causality between two vector processes. Existing causality measures have been defined only for the horizon 1, and they fail to capture indirect causality. We propose generalizations to any horizon h of the measures introduced by Geweke [Geweke, J., 1982. Measurement of linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series. Journal of the American Statistical Association 77, 304-313]. Nonparametric and parametric measures of unidirectional causality and instantaneous effects are considered. On noting that the causality measures typically involve complex functions of model parameters in VAR and VARMA models, we propose a simple simulation-based method to evaluate these measures for any VARMA model. We also describe asymptotically valid nonparametric confidence intervals, based on a bootstrap technique. Finally, the proposed measures are applied to study causality relations at different horizons between macroeconomic, monetary and financial variables in the US. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02E02; 001A02H01H; 001A02H02M FD : Processus stochastique; Théorie filtrage; Sciences économiques; Autocorrélation; Analyse multivariable; Méthode rééchantillonnage; Méthode jackknife; Finance; Théorie mesure; Estimation statistique; Théorie prédiction; Prédiction; Modèle économétrique; Econométrie; Méthode spectrale; Prédictabilité; Série temporelle; Boucle réaction; Association statistique; Estimation non paramétrique; Fonction complexe; Simulation; Intervalle confiance; Bootstrap; Méthode statistique; Analyse donnée; Donnée économique; 28XX; 60G25; 62M20; 62P20; 62M10; 62H20; 62F25; 62G15; 62F40; 62P05; Estimation paramétrique; Sciences actuarielles ED : Stochastic process; Filtering theory; Economic sciences; Autocorrelation; Multivariate analysis; Resampling method; Jackknife method; Finance; Measure theory; Statistical estimation; Prediction theory; Prediction; Econometric model; Econometrics; Spectral method; Predictability; Time series; Feedback; Statistical association; Non parametric estimation; Complex function; Simulation; Confidence interval; Bootstrap; Statistical method; Data analysis; Economic data SD : Proceso estocástico; Ciencias económicas; Autocorrelación; Análisis multivariable; Método jackknife; Finanzas; Teoría medida; Estimación estadística; Predicción; Modelo econométrico; Econometría; Método espectral; Predictabilidad; Serie temporal; Retroalimentación; Asociación estadística; Estimación no paramétrica; Función compleja; Simulación; Intervalo confianza; Bootstrap; Método estadístico; Análisis datos; Dato económico LO : INIST-16460.354000171723710040 267/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0019799 INIST ET : Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk: Application to oil market AU : MARIMOUTOU (Velayoudoum); RAGGAD (Bechir); TRABELSI (Abdelwahed) AF : GREQAM, Université de la Méditerranée, Institut Français de Pondichéry/France (1 aut.); BESTMOD. Institut Supérieur de Gestion de Tunis/Tunisie (2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy economics; ISSN 0140-9883; Coden EECODR; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 31; No. 4; Pp. 519-530; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Recent increases in energy prices, especially oil prices, have become a principal concern for consumers, corporations, and governments. Most analysts believe that oil price fluctuations have considerable consequences on economic activity. Oil markets have become relatively free, resulting in a high degree of oil-price volatility and generating radical changes to world energy and oil industries. Consequently, oil markets are naturally vulnerable to significant high price shifts. An example of such a case is the oil embargo crisis of 1973. In this newly created climate, protection against market risk has become a necessity. Value at Risk (VaR) measures risk exposure at a given probability level and is very important for risk management. Appealing aspects of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) have made convincing arguments for its use in managing energy price risks. In this paper, we model VaR for long and short trading positions in oil market by applying both unconditional and conditional EVT models to forecast Value at Risk. These models are compared to the performances of other well-known modelling techniques, such as GARCH, Historical Simulation and Filtered Historical Simulation. Both conditional EVT and Filtered Historical Simulation procedures offer a major improvement over the conventional methods. Furthermore, GARCH(1,1)-t model may provide equally good results which are comparable to two combined procedures. Finally, our results confirm the importance of filtering process for the success of standard approaches. CC : 001D06A01C2B; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Economie pétrolière; Pétrole; Prix; Volatilité; Analyse risque; Gestion risque; Méthodologie; Modèle économétrique; Valeur exposée ED : Oil economy; Petroleum; Price; Volatility; Risk analysis; Risk management; Methodology; Econometric model; Value at risk SD : Economía petrolera; Petróleo; Precio; Volatibilidad; Análisis riesgo; Gestión riesgo; Metodología; Modelo econométrico LO : INIST-18231.354000188591170020 268/793 NO : PASCAL 10-0012182 INIST ET : Copula Density Estimation by Total Variation Penalized Likelihood AU : LEMING QU; YI QIAN; HUI XIE AF : Department of Mathematics, Boise State University/Boise, Idaho/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Marketing Department, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University/Evanston, Illinois/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Division of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Illinois/Chicago, Illinois/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Communications in statistics. Simulation and computation; ISSN 0361-0918; Coden CSSCDB; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 38; No. 8-10; Pp. 1891-1908; Bibl. 1 p. LA : Anglais EA : Copulas are full measures of dependence among random variables. They are increasingly popular among academics and practitioners in financial econometrics for modeling comovements between markets, risk factors, and other relevant variables. A copula's hidden dependence structure that couples a joint distribution with its marginals makes a parametric copula non-trivial. An approach to bivariate copula density estimation is introduced that is based on a penalized likelihood with a total variation penalty term. Adaptive choice of the amount of regularization is based on approximate Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) type scores. Performance are evaluated through the Monte Carlo simulation. CC : 001A02I01Q; 001A02H02H; 001A02H01H; 001A02H02N2 FD : Estimation statistique; Estimation non paramétrique; Finance; Sciences économiques; Analyse numérique; Algèbre linéaire numérique; Problème mal posé; Distribution statistique; Théorie approximation; Méthode stochastique; Estimation densité; Méthode pénalité; Mesure aléatoire; Variable aléatoire; Modèle économétrique; Econométrie; Facteur risque; Loi conjointe; Fonction répartition; Loi marginale; Régularisation; Méthode régularisation; Estimation Bayes; Méthode Monte Carlo; Simulation numérique; Méthode statistique; Application; 62G07; 60G57; 62P05; 62P20; 60E05; 65F22; 62E17; 65C05; Sciences actuarielles; Copulas; Critère information ED : Statistical estimation; Non parametric estimation; Finance; Economic sciences; Numerical analysis; Numerical linear algebra; Ill posed problem; Statistical distribution; Approximation theory; Stochastic method; Density estimation; Penalty method; Random measure; Random variable; Econometric model; Econometrics; Risk factor; Joint distribution; Distribution function; Marginal distribution; Regularization; Regularization method; Bayes estimation; Monte Carlo method; Numerical simulation; Statistical method; Application; Copulas; Information criterion SD : Estimación estadística; Estimación no paramétrica; Finanzas; Ciencias económicas; Análisis numérico; Algebra lineal numérica; Problema mal planteado; Distribución estadística; Método estocástico; Estimación densidad; Método penalidad; Medida aleatoria; Variable aléatoria; Modelo econométrico; Econometría; Factor riesgo; Ley conjunta; Función distribución; Ley marginal; Regularización; Método regularización; Estimación Bayes; Método Monte Carlo; Simulación numérica; Método estadístico; Aplicación LO : INIST-16531B.354000171398000220 269/793 NO : FRANCIS 10-0192353 INIST FT : Les principes du revenu de solidarité active au regard des expériences étrangères ET : (The principles of «revenu de solidarité active» in light of other countries' experience) AU : MARC (Céline); THIBAULT (Florence); PERIVIER (Hélène) AF : CES-MATISSE (université Paris Descartes et CNRS)/France (1 aut.); Département des statistiques, des prévisions et des analyses/France (2 aut.); OFCE - Centre de recherche en économie de Sciences Po/France (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Politiques sociales et familiales; France; Da. 2009; No. 98; 49-66, 68 [19 p.]; Abs. anglais; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Français FA : Le revenu de solidarité active (RSA) constitue une réforme majeure de la protection sociale française. D'une part, il a remplacé les principaux minima sociaux versés aux personnes en âge de travailler, les mécanismes d'intéressement associés, et est venu s'imputer sur le calcul de la prime pour l'emploi. D'autre part, il constitue un complément de revenu substantiel pour les travailleurs pauvres, l'objectif étant à la fois de leur procurer un soutien financier et d'inciter à la reprise d'emploi. En s'appuyant sur une comparaison avec les dispositifs américain (EITC) et anglais (WTC et CTC) qui reposent depuis longtemps sur des prestations subordonnées à l'emploi, les auteures tentent de mieux comprendre les effets attendus du RSA. À l'aide du modèle de microsimulation MYRIADE de la Caisse nationale des allocations familiales, est présentée une évaluation ex ante de ce dispositif et de plusieurs scénarios alternatifs, en insistant sur le rôle joué par chaque composante du barème. CC : 52164; 521 FD : Protection sociale; France; Travailleur pauvre; Aide financière; Etats-Unis; Royaume-Uni; Comparaison internationale; Simulation; Revenu de solidarité active ED : Social protection; France; Working poor; Financial aid; United States Of America; United Kingdom; Crossnational Comparisons; Simulation; Solidarity minimum wage LO : INIST-22918.354000186610830040 270/793 NO : FRANCIS 10-0128121 INIST ET : Cost-Effectiveness of the Diabetes Care Protocol, a Multifaceted Computerized Decision Support Diabetes Management Intervention That Reduces Cardiovascular Risk AU : CLEVERINGA (Frits G. W.); WELSING (Paco M. J.); VAN DEN DONK (Maureen); GORTER (Kees J.); NIESSEN (Louis W.); RUTTEN (Guy E. H. M.); REDEKOP (William K.) AF : Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center/Utrecht/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 6 aut.); Department of Health Policy and Management, Erasmus University/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (5 aut., 7 aut.); Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health/Baltimore, Maryland/Etats-Unis (5 aut.); School of Medicine, Policy and Practice, University of East Anglia/Norwich/Royaume-Uni (5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Diabetes care; ISSN 0149-5992; Coden DICAD2; Etats-Unis; Da. 2010; Vol. 33; No. 2; Pp. 258-263; Bibl. 25 ref. LA : Anglais EA : OBJECTIVE - The Diabetes Care Protocol (DCP), a multifaceted computerized decision support diabetes management intervention, reduces cardiovascular risk of type 2 diabetic patients. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of DCP from a Dutch health care perspective. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - A cluster randomized trial provided data of DCP versus usual care. The 1-year follow-up patient data were extrapolated using a modified Dutch microsimulation diabetes model, computing individual lifetime health-related costs, and health effects. Incremental costs and effectiveness (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) were estimated using multivariate generalized estimating equations to correct for practice-level clustering and confounding. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were created. Stroke costs were calculated separately. Subgroup analyses examined patients with and without cardiovascular disease (CVD+ or CVD-patients, respectively). RESULTS- Excluding stroke, DCP patients lived longer (0.14 life-years, P = NS), experienced more QALYs (0.037, P = NS), and incurred higher total costs (<euro sign>1,415, P = NS), resulting in an ICER of <euro sign>38,243 per QALY gained. The likelihood of cost-effectiveness given a willingness-to-pay threshold of <euro sign>20,000 per QALY gained is 30%. DCP had a more favorable effect on CVD+ patients (ICER = <euro sign>14,814) than for CVD- patients (ICER = <euro sign>121,285). Coronary heart disease costs were reduced (<euro sign>-587, P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS - DCP reduces cardiovascular risk, resulting in only a slight improvement in QALYs, lower CVD costs, but higher total costs, with a high cost-effectiveness ratio. Cost-effective care can be achieved by focusing on cardiovascular risk factors in type 2 diabetic patients with a history of CVD. CC : 760L FD : Diabète; Analyse coût efficacité; Economie santé; Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire; Soin; Informatisation; Décision; Prise de décision; Traitement; Conduite à tenir; Facteur risque; Risque cardiovasculaire; Endocrinologie; Maladie métabolique; Nutrition; Homme FG : Endocrinopathie ED : Diabetes mellitus; Cost efficiency analysis; Health economy; Cardiovascular disease; Care; Computerization; Decision; Decision making; Treatment; Clinical management; Risk factor; Cardiovascular risk; Endocrinology; Metabolic diseases; Nutrition; Human EG : Endocrinopathy SD : Diabetes; Análisis costo eficacia; Economía salud; Aparato circulatorio patología; Cuidado; Informatización; Decisión; Toma decision; Tratamiento; Actitud médica; Factor riesgo; Riesgo cardiovascular; Endocrinología; Metabolismo patología; Nutrición; Hombre LO : INIST-18054.354000189317420080 271/793 NO : FRANCIS 10-0047303 INIST FT : L<right single quotation mark>environnement familial des Canadiens âgés de 75 ans et plus à l<right single quotation mark>horizon 2030 AU : Vézina (Samuel); Légaré (Jacques); Busque (Marc-Antoine); Décarie (Yann); Keefe (Janice) AF : Département de démographie, Université de Montréal/Canada (1 aut.); Département de démographie, Université de Montréal/Canada (2 aut.); Département de démographie, Université de Montréal/Canada (3 aut.); Département de mathématiques, Université de Sherbrooke/Canada (4 aut.); Nova Scotia Center on Aging, Mount Saint Vincent University/Canada (5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Enfances, familles, générations; ISSN 1708-6310; Canada; Da. 2009; No. 10; p. 0; Abs. anglais; Bibl. 16 LA : Français FA : À l<right single quotation mark>aide de résultats issus du modèle de microsimulation LifePaths, développé par Statistique Canada, nous estimons l<right single quotation mark>évolution de la situation matrimoniale et de la proportion d<right single quotation mark>individus sans enfant survivant des futures personnes âgées selon l<right single quotation mark>âge et le sexe pour le Canada en 2001 et 2031. Ces projections permettent de montrer comment l<right single quotation mark>évolution de la structure par âge, des situations matrimoniales et de la proportion de personnes sans enfant va transformer l<right single quotation mark>environnement familial des personnes âgées tant dans leur structure que dans leurs effectifs. Les résultats montrent que la baisse attendue du veuvage aura pour effet de diminuer la proportion de femmes de 75 ans et plus sans conjoint; par ailleurs, ils montrent que l<right single quotation mark>arrivée de baby-boomers à l<right single quotation mark>âge de 75 ans dès 2021 fera grimper plus particulièrement le nombre de personnes de cet âge dont l<right single quotation mark>environnement familial est caractérisé par l<right single quotation mark>absence d<right single quotation mark>enfant survivant. EA : With the help of the results obtained from the LifePaths Microsimulation Model developed by Statistics Canada, we made estimates as to the situation of marriage and the changes in the proportion of individuals with no surviving children amongst future elderly people, based on gender and age, with location in Canada 2001 and 2031. Our projections allow us to see how changes in age, matrimonial situations and the number of individuals with no surviving children will affect the family environment of the elderly both as concerns the structure of their lives and their numbers. The results indicate that the anticipated retarding of male deaths will lessen the number of spouseless women aged 75 and over. The results also anticipate that the number of baby boomers reaching the age of 75, as from the year 2021, will more specifically increase the number of this age in whose family environment there will characteristically be no surviving children. CC : 52133A; 521 FD : Personne âgée; Canada; Projection; Mariage; Age; Enfant; Veuvage ED : Elderly person; Canada; Projection; Marriage; Age; Child; Widowhood LO : EN_LIGNE.354000603728780003 272/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0475262 INIST ET : Effect of Rising Chemotherapy Costs on the Cost Savings of Colorectal Cancer Screening AU : LANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris); VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein); ZAUBER (Ann G.); HABBEMA (J. Dik F.); KUIPERS (Ernst J.) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 4 aut.); Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (5 aut.); Department of Internal Medicine, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (5 aut.); Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center/New York/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of the National Cancer Institute; ISSN 0027-8874; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; Vol. 101; No. 20; Pp. 1412-1422; Bibl. 62 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background Although colorectal cancer screening is cost-effective, it requires a considerable net investment by governments or insurance companies. If screening was cost saving, governments and insurance companies might be more inclined to invest in colorectal cancer screening programs. We examined whether colorectal cancer screening would become cost saving with the widespread use of the newer, more expensive chemotherapies. Methods We used the MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model to assess whether widespread use of new chemotherapies would affect the treatment savings of colorectal cancer screening in the general population. We considered three scenarios for chemotherapy use: the past, the present, and the near future. We assumed that survival improved and treatment costs for patients diagnosed with advanced stages of colorectal cancer increased over the scenarios. Screening strategies considered were annual guaiac fecal occult blood testing (FOBT), annual immunochemical FOBT, sigmoidoscopy every 5 years, colonoscopy every 10 years, and the combination of sigmoidoscopy every 5 years and annual guaiac FOBT. Analyses were conducted from the perspective of the health-care system for a cohort of 50-year-old individuals who were at average risk of colorectal cancer and were screened with 100% adherence from age 50 years to age 80 years and followed up until death. Results Compared with no screening, the treatment savings from preventing advanced colorectal cancer and colorectal cancer deaths by screening more than doubled with the widespread use of new chemotherapies. The lifetime average treatment savings were larger than the lifetime average screening costs for screening with Hemoccult II, immunochemical FOBT, sigmoidoscopy, and the combination of sigmoidoscopy and Hemoccult II (average savings vs costs per individual in the population: Hemoccult II, $1398 vs $859; immunochemical FOBT, $1756 vs $1565; sigmoidoscopy, $1706 vs $1575; sigmoidoscopy and Hemoccult II $1931 vs $1878). Colonoscopy did not become cost saving, but the total net costs of this strategy decreased from $1317 to $296 per individual in the population. Conclusions With the increase in chemotherapy costs for advanced colorectal cancer, most colorectal cancer screening strategies have become cost saving. As a consequence, screening is a desirable approach not only to reduce colorectal cancer incidence and mortality but also to control the costs of colorectal cancer treatment. CC : 002B04; 002B13B01 FD : Chimiothérapie; Coût; Cancer colorectal; Economie santé; Aspect économique; Dépistage; Cancérologie; Anticancéreux; Etats-Unis; Homme FG : Traitement; Amérique du Nord; Amérique; Pathologie de l'appareil digestif; Pathologie du côlon; Pathologie de l'intestin; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Pathologie du rectum; Santé publique ED : Chemotherapy; Costs; Colorectal cancer; Health economy; Economic aspect; Medical screening; Cancerology; Antineoplastic agent; United States; Human EG : Treatment; North America; America; Digestive diseases; Colonic disease; Intestinal disease; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Rectal disease; Public health SD : Quimioterapia; Coste; Cancer de colon y recto; Economía salud; Aspecto económico; Descubrimiento; Cancerología; Anticanceroso; Estados Unidos; Hombre LO : INIST-3364.354000170101670060 273/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0465222 INIST ET : Economic evaluation of cholinesterase inhibitor therapy for dementia: comparison of Alzheimer's disease and Dementia with Lewy bodies AU : GUSTAVSSON (Anders); VAN DER PUTT (Rohan); JÖNSSON (Linus); MCSHANE (Rupert) AF : I3 Innovus/Stockholm/Suède (1 aut., 3 aut.); Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire Mental Health NHS Trust/Oxford/Royaume-Uni (2 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : International journal of geriatric psychiatry; ISSN 0885-6230; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 24; No. 10; Pp. 1072-1078; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : Objective To assess the cost effectiveness of cholinesterase inhibitor (ChEI) treatment in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB). Method We used 4-month open label follow-up data from routine memory clinic patients. There were 852 patients with AD and 112 with DLB. We applied three predictive models to estimate clinical and economic outcomes at five years, comparing AD and DLB patients with hypothetical untreated controls. Results The mean improvement in MMSE in 852 AD patients was 0.57 (SD 3.4) at 4 months, and in the subgroup with baseline MMSE of 10-20 (moderate) was 1.6 (SD 3.7). Overall, the 112 DLB patients improved by 1.4 (SD 3.7). DLB patients with an MMSE 10-20 improved by 3.1 (SD 4.5) points. These efficacy data were input into the SHTAC, microsimulation and Markov models and produced estimated costs per QALY gained (CQG) for all AD of £194,066, £67,904 and £123,935 respectively. In comparison, the CQGs for all DLB were £46,794, £2,706 and £35,922. For the moderate subgroups only the SHTAC and microsimulation models were applicable. These gave CQG estimates for moderate AD of £39,664 and cost saving respectively. For moderate DLB, both estimates were cost saving. Conclusion The cost per QALY gained of cholinesterase treatment of all patients with DLB (including those with MMSE outside the 10-20 range) is comparable to that of patients with moderate AD, and is probably cost saving. CC : 002B30A11; 002B02B02 FD : Economie santé; Santé publique; Analyse coût; Anticholinestérasique; Pharmacothérapie; Démence d'Alzheimer; Etude comparative; Démence à corps de Lewy; Analyse économique; Efficacité traitement; Etude longitudinale; Santé mentale; Environnement social; Royaume-Uni; Personne âgée FG : Traitement; Europe; Homme; Pathologie de l'encéphale; Maladie dégénérative; Pathologie du système nerveux central; Pathologie du système nerveux ED : Health economy; Public health; Cost analysis; Anticholinesterase agent; Pharmacotherapy; Alzheimer disease; Comparative study; Lewy body dementia; Economic analysis; Treatment efficiency; Follow up study; Mental health; Social environment; United Kingdom; Elderly EG : Treatment; Europe; Human; Cerebral disorder; Degenerative disease; Central nervous system disease; Nervous system diseases SD : Economía salud; Salud pública; Análisis costo; Anticolinesterasa agente; Farmacoterapia; Demencia Alzheimer; Estudio comparativo; Demencia cuerpos Lewy; Análisis económico; Eficacia tratamiento; Estudio longitudinal; Salud mental; Contexto social; Reino Unido; Anciano LO : INIST-21188.354000188107710050 274/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0458753 INIST ET : Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Multiplicative Models with Dependent Data AU : DETTE (Holger); PARDO-FERNANDEZ (Juan Carlos); VAN KEILEGOM (Ingrid) AF : Fakultät für Mathematik, Ruhr-Universität Bochum/Allemagne (1 aut.); Departamento de Estatística e IO, Universidade de Vigo/Espagne (2 aut.); Institut de Statistique, Université catholique de Louvain/Belgique (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Scandinavian journal of statistics; ISSN 0303-6898; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 36; No. 4; Pp. 782-799; Bibl. 1 p. LA : Anglais EA : Several classical time series models can be written as a regression model between the components of a strictly stationary bivariate process. Some of those models, such as the ARCH models, share the property of proportionality of the regression function and the scale function, which is an interesting feature in econometric and financial models. In this article, we present a procedure to test for this feature in a non-parametric context. The test is based on the difference between two non-parametric estimators of the distribution of the regression error. Asymptotic results are proved and some simulations are shown in the paper in order to illustrate the finite sample properties of the procedure. CC : 001A02H02A; 001A02H02F; 001A02H02H; 001A02H02M FD : Distribution statistique; Théorie approximation; Estimation statistique; Test hypothèse; Test statistique; Processus stochastique; Autocorrélation; Sciences économiques; Finance; Test ajustement; Modèle multiplicatif; Série temporelle; Modèle régression; Régression statistique; Processus stationnaire; Modèle ARCH; Fonction régression; Modèle économétrique; Econométrie; Estimation non paramétrique; Méthode paramétrique; Fonction répartition; Estimation erreur; Simulation; Méthode statistique; Application; 62E17; 62G10; 62M10; 62Jxx; 60G10; 62P20; 62P05; 60E05; Sciences actuarielles; Estimation paramétrique; Echantillon fini ED : Statistical distribution; Approximation theory; Statistical estimation; Hypothesis test; Statistical test; Stochastic process; Autocorrelation; Economic sciences; Finance; Goodness of fit test; Multiplicative model; Time series; Regression model; Statistical regression; Stationary process; ARCH model; Regression function; Econometric model; Econometrics; Non parametric estimation; Parametric method; Distribution function; Error estimation; Simulation; Statistical method; Application; Parametric estimation; Finite sample SD : Distribución estadística; Estimación estadística; Test hipótesis; Test estadístico; Proceso estocástico; Autocorrelación; Ciencias económicas; Finanzas; Prueba ajuste; Modelo multiplicativo; Serie temporal; Modelo regresión; Regresión estadística; Proceso estacionario; Modelo ARCH; Función regresión; Modelo econométrico; Econometría; Estimación no paramétrica; Método paramétrico; Función distribución; Estimación error; Simulación; Método estadístico; Aplicación LO : INIST-16843.354000170348600120 275/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0455180 INIST ET : Environmental and economic effects of post-Kyoto carbon regimes : Results of simulations with the global model GINFORS AU : LUTZ (Christian); MEYER (Bernd) AF : Institute for Economic Structures Research (GWS)/49080 Osnabrueck/Allemagne (1 aut., 2 aut.); University of Osnabrueck/Allemagne (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 37; No. 5; Pp. 1758-1766; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : Using the extensive and disaggregated global GINFORS model, consequences of different possible post-Kyoto regimes on the German and European economy and other major economies in the medium run until 2020 are depicted. The approach is very extensive and detailed in comparison to already existing analyses: this holds for the number of explicitly modelled countries (50 and 2 regions) and 41 economic sectors, input-output tables, the bilateral trade flows, the detailed coverage of behavioural parameters, the coverage of energy balances and CO2 emissions as well as for the number and precise economic-political design of simulation runs. Global emissions will double until 2030 compared to 1990 levels without the existence of a farreaching climate regime after 2012. A unilateral commitment of the EU would only be a &dquot;drop in the bucket&dquot;, which solely strengthens the credibility of the EU in international negotiations. A stabilisation of global emissions in 2020 compared to 2010, which is consistent with the 2° target of the EU can only be achieved, if all developed and at least the large emerging economies participate and if all possible existing market-ready reduction technologies are used. CC : 001D06A01A; 001D16C04A; 001D06A01C1; 230 FD : Politique énergétique; Politique environnement; Lutte antipollution; Emission polluant; Dioxyde de carbone; Taxation; Coopération internationale; Variation spatiale; Scénario; Modèle économétrique; Simulation; Développement économique; Demande énergie; Impact environnement; Impact économique; Economie énergie; Union européenne; Etats-Unis; Monde FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Energy policy; Environmental policy; Pollution control; Pollutant emission; Carbon dioxide; Taxation; International cooperation; Spatial variation; Script; Econometric model; Simulation; Economic development; Energy demand; Environment impact; Economic impact; Energy economy; European Union; United States; World EG : North America; America SD : Política energética; Política medio ambiente; Lucha anticontaminación; Emisión contaminante; Carbono dióxido; Tasación; Cooperación internacional; Variación espacial; Argumento; Modelo econométrico; Simulación; Desarrollo económico; Demanda energía; Impacto medio ambiente; Impacto económico; Economía energía; Unión Europea; Estados Unidos; Mundo LO : INIST-16417.354000186141570160 276/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0451417 INIST ET : Behavioral Microsimulation Formulation for Analysis and Design of Off-Hour Delivery Policies in Urban Areas AU : SILAS (Michael A.); HOLGUIN-VERAS (José) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, JEC 4033, 110 8th Street/Troy, NY 12180-3590/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; No. 2097; Pp. 43-50; Bibl. 16 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper is aimed at gaining a better understanding of how to increase participation in off-hour deliveries by using behavioral microsimulation (BMS) of carrier-receiver interactions. BMS is used to study the effectiveness of policies such as time-of-day pricing and financial incentives to receivers in exchange for their acceptance of off-hour deliveries. The main components of this BMS are the simulations of receiver and carrier behaviors. The simulation of receiver behavior uses a discrete choice model to estimate receivers' decisions to accept or reject off-hour deliveries. The simulation of carriers' behaviors uses receivers' decisions as an input for deciding whether to make off-hour deliveries along with a computation of the associated delivery costs. The analyses done revealed several key results: (a) tax deductions given to receivers in exchange for accepting off-hour deliveries and financial rewards to carriers making off-hour deliveries would increase participation in off-hour deliveries, (b) time-of-day toll surcharges have no major impact on increasing off-hour deliveries, (c) carriers located close to their urban customers are more likely to participate in off-hour deliveries because they can easily start to accrue the benefits from off-hour delivery operations, and (d) increased enforcement of parking fines for double-parking during regular hours could increase the number of carriers participating in off-hour deliveries. CC : 001D15A FD : Transport marchandise; Modèle simulation; Zone urbaine; Comportement; Livraison; Formulation; Expérimentation; Simulation numérique; Etude impact; Structure marché; Politique ED : Freight transportation; Simulation model; Urban area; Behavior; Delivery (good); Formulation; Experimentation; Numerical simulation; Impact study; Market structure; Policy SD : Transporte mercadería; Modelo simulación; Zona urbana; Conducta; Entrega; Formulación; Experimentación; Simulación numérica; Estudio impacto; Estructura mercado; Política LO : INIST-10459B.354000171906390060 277/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0451381 INIST ET : Using Simulation to Plan Capacity Models by Lane for Two- and Three-Lane Roundabouts AU : BARED (Joe G.); MOHASEL AFSHAR (Abbas) AF : FHWA, Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center, 6300 George-town Pike/McLean, VA 22101/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, 1173 Glenn L. Martin Hall/College Park, MD 20742/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; No. 2096; Pp. 8-15; Bibl. 13 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Recently, capacity models have been developed for single- and double-lane roundabouts by using U.S. data from NCHRP Report 572. The model for double-lane capacity was provided primarily for critical lane (usually right-lane) capacity as a function of total circulating volume. None of the existing international capacity models separate circulating volumes by lane. This study proposes planning capacity models for two-lane and three-lane roundabouts by separate entry-lane and separate circulatory-lane traffic volumes. VISSIM microsimulation software was used first to compare with the new NCHRP models as well as with Australian (SIDRA) and German (Tanner-Wu) models. Given that predictions from VISSIM for overall capacity of one- and two-lane roundabouts are consistent with U.S. data from NCHRP Report 572, new planning capacity models were developed by using VISSIM for the left lane and right lane of double-lane roundabouts that are functions of separate circulatory-lane traffic volume. For three-lane roundabouts, planning capacity models were developed by separate entry lane (left, middle, and right lane) as functions of inner, middle, and outer circulatory-lane volumes. All variable coefficients are statistically significant, and model fits are strong. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O02; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Carrefour giratoire; Modèle simulation; Capacité; Voie circulation; Etats-Unis; Outil logiciel; Etude comparative; Scénario FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Roundabout; Simulation model; Capacity; Traffic lane; United States; Software tool; Comparative study; Script EG : North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Bifurcación giratoria; Modelo simulación; Capacidad; Vía tráfico; Estados Unidos; Herramienta software; Estudio comparativo; Argumento LO : INIST-10459B.354000172587410020 278/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0451075 INIST ET : Traffic Microsimulation Modeling to Study a Traffic Signal Incident Reduction Function AU : YOUNG (William); ARCHER (Jeffery) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University/Victoria 3800/Australie (1 aut.); Accident Research Centre, Monash University/Victoria 3800/Australie (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; No. 2103; Pp. 80-87; Bibl. 18 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper demonstrates the use of a discrete event traffic microsimulation model to study the safety impacts of the introduction of an incident reduction (IR) function into a vehicle-actuated traffic signal controller. The IR function is based on that used in signal controllers in Sweden. The IR function is designed to reduce the number of stop-or-go decisions by drivers when caught in the dilemma zone at the onset of the amber signal. A correctly adapted IR function was found to greatly enhance the safety performance of signalized intersections. The simulation experiment described in the paper is based on empirical data from a suburban vehicle-actuated signalized intersection. It was conducted specifically to investigate the effects of the standard IR function on three proximal safety indicators: time to collision, red light violations, and required braking rates. The simulation results demonstrate a significant improvement in the time to collision (22%), red light violations (6%), and required braking rate when the IR function was in operation and a small positive influence on traffic movement through the intersection. Importantly, this study has illustrated the potential for using traffic microsimulation modeling for traffic safety evaluation. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Feu signalisation; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Réduction; Incident; Signalisation commandée par trafic; Etude impact; Sécurité trafic; Intersection; Collecte donnée; Analyse donnée ED : Road traffic; Traffic lights; Modeling; Simulation model; Reduction; Mishap; Traffic actuated signal control; Impact study; Traffic safety; Intersection; Data gathering; Data analysis SD : Tráfico carretera; Semáforo; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Reducción; Incidente; Señalización regulada por tráfico; Estudio impacto; Seguridad tráfico; Intersección; Recolección dato; Análisis datos LO : INIST-10459B.354000171061890100 279/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0451011 INIST ET : Safety Evaluation of Truck Lane Restriction Strategies Using Microsimulation Modeling AU : EL-TANTAWY (Samah); DJAVADIAN (Shadi); ROORDA (Matthew J.); ABDULHAI (Baher) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, 35 St. George Street, University of Toronto/Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; No. 2099; Pp. 123-131; Bibl. 23 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The demand for goods and services in North America has increased dramatically over the past few decades. This demand increase resulted in an associated increase in truck traffic on North American highways, escalating congestion, operation, and safety concerns. This in turn has led to increasing interest in strategies to reduce interaction between trucks and cars, including truck restrictions and dedicated truck lanes. The purpose of this paper is to implement algorithms for evaluating safety measures for different scenarios of truck lane restrictions and dedicated truck lanes using microscopic traffic simulation. The measures of performance calculated in this study are lane changing, merging, and rear-end conflicts. These measures are analyzed for truck-restricted lanes and dedicated truck lanes on the Gardiner Expressway in downtown Toronto, Canada. Simulation scenarios are developed by varying lane strategies and truck percentage. Simulation results showed that implementation of a single truck-restricted lane makes little difference to most conflict measures. Restricting trucks from the leftmost two lanes results in more substantial reductions in lane changing conflicts, but causes some increased freeway merging conflicts involving trucks. Dedicating the leftmost lane only to trucks also reduces lane changing conflicts but increases lane merging conflicts. Because lane changing conflicts are far more frequent than merging conflicts, there appears to be a net safety benefit by either restricting trucks from the left two lanes or dedicating the left lane to trucks. Relationships between lane strategy and rear-end conflicts are weak. Truck lane strategies are most effective when truck percentage exceeds 15%. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Gestion trafic; Trafic marchandise; Amérique du Nord; Poids lourd; Sécurité trafic; Voie réservée; Autoroute; Etude cas; Evaluation performance; Conflit FG : Amérique ED : Road traffic; Modeling; Simulation model; Traffic management; Goods traffic; North America; Heavy truck; Traffic safety; Priority lane; Freeway; Case study; Performance evaluation; Conflict EG : America SD : Tráfico carretera; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Gestión tráfico; Tráfico mercadería; America del norte; Peso pesado; Seguridad tráfico; Vía prioritaria; Autopista; Estudio caso; Evaluación prestación; Conflicto LO : INIST-10459B.354000170206380140 280/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0431516 INIST ET : The design and validation of a spatial microsimulation model of obesogenic environments for children in Leeds, UK: SimObesity AU : EDWARDS (Kimberley L.); CLARKE (Graham P.) AF : Centre of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Room 8.49, Worsley Building, University of Leeds/Leeds LS2 9JT/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Social science & medicine : (1982); ISSN 0277-9536; Coden SSMDEP; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 69; No. 7; Pp. 1127-1134; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : Obesogenic environments are a major explanation for the rapidly increasing prevalence in obesity. Investigating the relationship between obesity and obesogenic variables at the micro-level will increase our understanding about local differences in risk factors for obesity. SimObesity is a spatial microsimulation model designed to create micro-level estimates of obesogenic environment variables in the city of Leeds in the UK: consisting of a plethora of health, environment, and socio-economic variables. It combines individual micro-data from two national surveys with a coarse geography, with geographically finer scaled data from the 2001 UK Census, using a reweighting deterministic algorithm. This creates a synthetic population of individuals/households in Leeds with attributes from both the survey and census datasets. Logistic regression analyses identify suitable constraint variables to use. The model is validated using linear regression and equal variance t-tests. Height, weight, age, gender, and residential postcode data were collected on children aged 3-13 years in the Leeds metropolitan area, and obesity described as above the 98th centile for the British reference dataset. Geographically weighted regression is used to investigate the relationship between different obesogenic environments and childhood obesity. Validation shows that the small-area estimates were robust. The different obesogenic environments, as well as the parameter estimates from the corresponding local regression analyses, are mapped, all of which demonstrate non-stationary relationships. These results show that social capital and poverty are strongly associated with childhood obesity. This paper demonstrates a methodology to estimate health variables at the small-area level. The key to this technique is the choice of the model's input variables, which must be predictors for the output variables; this factor has not been stressed in other spatial microsimulation work. It also provides further evidence for the existence of obesogenic environments for children. CC : 002B30A11; 002B01; 002B22B FD : Obésité; But; Validation test; Modèle mathématique; Environnement; Enfant; Royaume-Uni; Simulation; Analyse spatiale; Modélisation; Santé publique; Médecine sociale; Etat nutritionnel FG : Homme; Europe; Trouble de la nutrition ED : Obesity; Goal; Test validation; Mathematical model; Environment; Child; United Kingdom; Simulation; Spatial analysis; Modeling; Public health; Social medicine; Nutritional status EG : Human; Europe; Nutrition disorder SD : Obesidad; Fin; Validación prueba; Modelo matemático; Medio ambiente; Niño; Reino Unido; Simulación; Análisis espacial; Modelización; Salud pública; Medicina social; Estado nutricional LO : INIST-13689.354000170057460220 281/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0428927 BDSP FT : (Différences internationales en matière de longévité et d'état de santé et leurs conséquences économiques) ET : International Differences in Longevity and Health and their Economic Consequences AU : MICHAUD (P.C.); GOLDMAN (D.); LAKDAWALLA (D.); ZHENG (Y.); GAYLEY (A.) AF : National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge. MA./Etats-Unis DT : Livre; Niveau monographique SO : International Differences in Longevity and Health and their Economic Consequences; Etats-Unis; Cambridge: NBER; Da. 2009-08; Pp. 35 p. LA : Anglais EA : In 1975,50 year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than their European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy at that age has diverged substantially compared to Europe. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily the symptom of real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their European peers. In particular, we use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Europe. We find that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Europeans could save up to $1.1 trillion in discounted total health expenditures from 2004 to 2050 CC : 002B30A11 FD : Santé; Personne âgée; Dépense; Indicateur; Longévité; Coût; Etude comparative; Enquête; Etude cohorte; Projection perspective; Analyse économique; Etats-Unis; Europe FG : Homme; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Health; Elderly; Expenditure; Indicator; Longevity; Costs; Comparative study; Survey; Cohort study; Perspective projection; Economic analysis; United States; Europe EG : Human; North America; America SD : Salud; Anciano; Gasto; Indicador; Longevidad; Coste; Estudio comparativo; Encuesta; Estudio cohorte; Proyección perspectiva; Análisis económico; Estados Unidos; Europa LO : BDSP/IRDES 282/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0428926 BDSP FT : (Comprendre les conséquences économiques des évolutions de l'état de santé de la population) ET : Understanding the Economic Consequences of Shifting Trends in Population Health AU : MICHAUD (P.C.); GOLDMAN (D.); LAKDAWALLA (D.); ZHENG (Y.); GAYLEY (A.) AF : National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge. MA./Etats-Unis DT : Livre; Niveau monographique SO : Understanding the Economic Consequences of Shifting Trends in Population Health; Etats-Unis; Cambridge: NBER; Da. 2009-08; Pp. 41 p. LA : Anglais EA : The public economic burden of shifting trends in population health remains uncertain. Sustained increases in obesity, diabetes, and other diseases could reduce life expectancy - with a concomitant decrease in the public-sector's annuity burden - but these savings may be offset by worsening functional status, which increases health care spending, reduces labor supply, and increases public assistance. Using a microsimulation approach, we quantify the competing public-finance consequences of shifting trends in population health for medical care costs, labor supply, earnings, wealth, tax revenues, and government expenditures (including Social Security and income assistance). Together, the reduction in smoking and the rise in obesity have increased net public-sector liabilities by $430bn, or approximately 4% of the current debt burden. Larger effects are observed for specific public programs : annual spending is 10% higher in the Medicaid program, and 7% higher for Medicare CC : 002B30A11 FD : Dépense; Santé; Politique sanitaire; Tabagisme; Obésité; Morbidité; Budget; Diabète; Hypertension artérielle; Coût; Projection perspective; Simulation; Etats-Unis FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Expenditure; Health; Health policy; Tobacco smoking; Obesity; Morbidity; Budget; Diabetes mellitus; Hypertension; Costs; Perspective projection; Simulation; United States EG : North America; America SD : Gasto; Salud; Política sanitaria; Tabaquismo; Obesidad; Morbilidad; Presupuesto; Diabetes; Hipertensión arterial; Coste; Proyección perspectiva; Simulación; Estados Unidos LO : BDSP/IRDES 283/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0400047 INIST ET : How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars-Part II: Forecasting effects of feebates based on energy-efficiency AU : DE HAAN (Peter); MUELLER (Michel G.); SCHOLZ (Roland W.) AF : ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHNJ732/8092 Zurich/Suisse (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 37; No. 3; Pp. 1083-1094; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : In this paper, we simulate the car market in order to forecast the effects of feebate systems based on an energy-labeling scheme using categories A to G. Very fuel-efficient (A) cars receive a cash incentive, highly inefficient (G) cars pay additional fees. Consumers have different price elasticities and behavioral options to react to feebates. They can switch to a smaller sized car, but as energy-efficiency varies widely within size segments, they can also stick to the preferred size class and choose a more efficient (smaller) engine. In addition, previously owned cars influence the next car to be chosen. We use an agent-based microsimulation approach particularly suited to predict environmental and market effects of feebates. Heteorogenous agents choose from a choice set drawn from a detailed fleet of new cars. Incentives of ?2000 for A-labeled cars induce an additional rated CO2 emission decrease of new car registrations between 3.4% and 4.3%, with CO2 abatement costs between ?6 and ?13 per ton, and otherwise little undesired market disturbance. The risk of rebound effects is estimated to be low. After adopting the frequencies of consumer segments to a given country, the model presented is applicable to all European car markets. CC : 001D15C FD : Automobile; Modèle prévision; Modèle simulation; Analyse comportementale; Consommateur; Politique; Rendement énergétique; Fiscalité; Emission polluant; Dioxyde de carbone; Variation temporelle; Résultat; Etude comparative; Etude marché ED : Motor car; Forecast model; Simulation model; Behavioral analysis; Consumer; Policy; Energetic efficiency; Taxes; Pollutant emission; Carbon dioxide; Time variation; Result; Comparative study; Market survey SD : Automóvil; Modelo previsión; Modelo simulación; Análisis conductual; Consumidor; Política; Rendimiento energético; Fiscalización; Emisión contaminante; Carbono dióxido; Variación temporal; Resultado; Estudio comparativo; Estudio mercado LO : INIST-16417.354000185457990320 284/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0400044 INIST ET : How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars-Part I: Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation AU : MUELLER (Michel G.); DE HAAN (Peter) AF : ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Natural and Social Science Interface, Universitaetstr. 22, CHNJ 73.2/8092 Zurich/Suisse (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 37; No. 3; Pp. 1072-1082; Bibl. 1 p. LA : Anglais EA : This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated. CC : 001D15C FD : Automobile; Modèle simulation; Analyse comportementale; Consommateur; Politique; Rendement énergétique; Prise de décision; Choix; Orienté agent; Résultat ED : Motor car; Simulation model; Behavioral analysis; Consumer; Policy; Energetic efficiency; Decision making; Choice; Agent oriented; Result SD : Automóvil; Modelo simulación; Análisis conductual; Consumidor; Política; Rendimiento energético; Toma decision; Elección; Orientado agente; Resultado LO : INIST-16417.354000185457990310 285/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0398823 INIST ET : Cost Effectiveness of Fondaparinux in Non-ST-Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome AU : LATOUR-PEREZ (Jaime); DE-MIGUEL-BALSA (Eva) AF : Intensive Care and Coronary Unit, Hospital General Universitario de Elche/Elche/Espagne (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : PharmacoEconomics : (Auckland); ISSN 1170-7690; Nouvelle-Zélande; Da. 2009; Vol. 27; No. 7; Pp. 585-595; Bibl. 49 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: Fondaparinux has been shown to reduce the risk of major bleeding and 30-day mortality compared with enoxaparin, in patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). However, its cost effectiveness is not well known. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness and economic attractiveness of fondaparinux relative to enoxaparin in patients with NSTE-ACS treated with triple antiplatelet therapy and early (non-urgent) invasive strategy. Methods: The decision model compares two alternative strategies: subcutaneous (SC) enoxaparin (1 mg/kg 12 hourly) versus SC fondaparinux (2.5 mg/day) in NSTE-ACS patients pre-treated with triple antiplatelet therapy and early revascularization. Cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses were performed from a healthcare perspective, based on a Markov model with a time horizon of the patient lifespan. Univariate sensitivity analysis and probabilistic (Monte Carlo) microsimulation analysis were performed. Results: In the base-case analysis (65 years, Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction [TIMI] score 4), the use of fondaparinux was associated with a significant reduction in major bleeding, a slight reduction in adverse cardiac events, and minor improvements in survival and QALYs, together with a small reduction in costs. The dominance of fondaparinux over enoxaparin remained unchanged in the univariate sensitivity analyses. According to Monte Carlo simulation, fondaparinux was cost saving in 99.9% of cases. Conclusion: Compared with enoxaparin, the use of fondaparinux in patients with NSTE-ACS managed with an early invasive strategy appears to be cost effective, even in patients with a low risk of bleeding. CC : 002B02G; 002B12A; 002B30A11 FD : Economie santé; Analyse coût efficacité; Fondaparinux sodique; Coagulation Factor Xa; Inhibiteur enzyme; Antithrombotique; Susdécalage ST; Santé publique; Etude comparative; Efficacité traitement; Enoxaparine sodique; Analyse statistique; Cardiopathie coronaire; Médicament; Anticoagulant; Syndrome coronaire aigu FG : Serine endopeptidases; Peptidases; Hydrolases; Enzyme; Pentaoside; Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire; Pathologie du myocarde; Héparine bas poids moléculaire; Inhibiteur du facteur Xa de coagulation ED : Health economy; Cost efficiency analysis; Fondaparinux sodium; Coagulation Factor Xa; Enzyme inhibitor; Antithrombotic agent; ST elevation; Public health; Comparative study; Treatment efficiency; Enoxaparin sodium; Statistical analysis; Coronary heart disease; Drug; Anticoagulant; Acute coronary syndrome EG : Serine endopeptidases; Peptidases; Hydrolases; Enzyme; Pentasaccharide; Cardiovascular disease; Myocardial disease; Low molecular weight heparin SD : Economía salud; Análisis costo eficacia; Fondaparinux de sodio; Coagulation Factor Xa; Inhibidor enzima; antitrombōtico; ST elevación(ECG); Salud pública; Estudio comparativo; Eficacia tratamiento; Enoxaparina de sodio; Análisis estadístico; Cardiopatía coronaria; Medicamento; Anticoagulante; Síndrome coronario agudo LO : INIST-26124.354000171076740060 286/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0376787 INIST ET : Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Human Papillomavirus Vaccination in the Netherlands AU : DE KOK (Inge M. C. M.); VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein); HABBEMA (J. Dik F.) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of the National Cancer Institute; ISSN 0027-8874; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; Vol. 101; No. 15; Pp. 1083-1092; Bibl. 45 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background In the Netherlands, low cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates might limit the cost-effectiveness of vaccination against the human papillomavirus (HPV). We examined the effect on cervical cancer incidence and mortality of adding HPV vaccination to the current Dutch cervical cancer screening situation and calculated the cost-effectiveness. Methods Costs and effects were estimated under favorable assumptions (ie, that HPV vaccination provides lifelong protection against 70% of all cervical cancers, has no side effects, and is administered to all women regardless of their risk of cervical cancer) by using the microsimulation screening analysis (MISCAN) model. The impact of changes in the price of vaccination, number of booster vaccinations, vaccination attendance rate, vaccination efficacy, cervical cancer incidence level, and quality-of-life assumptions was investigated in sensitivity analyses. Results Using the current price of ?118 per vaccine dose and with discounting of costs and effects at an annual rate of 3%, adding HPV vaccination to the current Dutch screening situation had a cost-effectiveness ratio of ?53500 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. The threshold price per vaccine dose at which the cost-effectiveness of vaccination would correspond to an acceptability threshold of ?20000 per QALY gained was ?40. With the addition of one or more (up to four) booster vaccinations during a lifetime, this threshold price decreased to ?33 for one booster (to ?16 for four boosters). With a doubling of the cervical cancer incidence level, the cost-effectiveness ratio was ?24400 per QALY gained and the maximum price per dose at threshold of ?20000 was ?97. All threshold prices were lower under less favorable effectiveness assumptions. Conclusions In the Netherlands, HPV vaccination is not cost-effective even under favorable assumptions. To become cost-effective, the vaccine price would have to be decreased considerably, depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine. CC : 002B04; 002B20C02 FD : Cancer du col de l'utérus; Analyse coût efficacité; Papillomavirus humain; Immunoprophylaxie; Virose; Vaccination; Prévention; Pays-Bas; Cancérologie; Homme FG : Papillomavirus; Papovaviridae; Virus; Infection; Europe; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Pathologie de l'appareil génital femelle; Pathologie du col de l'utérus; Santé publique ED : Cervical cancer; Cost efficiency analysis; Human papillomavirus; Immunoprophylaxis; Viral disease; Vaccination; Prevention; Netherlands; Cancerology; Human EG : Papillomavirus; Papovaviridae; Virus; Infection; Europe; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Female genital diseases; Uterine cervix diseases; Public health SD : Cáncer de cuello del útero; Análisis costo eficacia; Human papillomavirus; Inmunoprofilaxia; Virosis; Vacunación; Prevención; Holanda; Cancerología; Hombre LO : INIST-3364.354000187527340050 287/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0360985 INIST ET : Traffic Probe Data Processing for Full-Scale Deployment of Vehicle-Infrastructure Integration AU : SHLADOVER (Steven E.); KUHN (Thomas M.) AF : California PATH Program, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley, Richmond Field Station, 1357 South 46th Street, Building 452/Richmond, CA 94804/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2086; Pp. 115-123; Bibl. 19 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Vehicle-infrastructure integration (VII) is expected to provide greatly improved transportation planning and operations data by enabling many-and eventually all-road vehicles to function as traffic data probes. This means that VII probe data can be processed to produce useful information about the operation of an arterial roadway based on studies using a traffic microsimulation. Simulation provides a &dquot;truth model&dquot; representation of all vehicle trajectories, which serves as the basis for comparison with probe data sampling strategies under development in the VII program. Modifications to the probe data sampling strategies are suggested to enhance the quality of the data, especially its timeliness. Applications to weather condition detection, incident detection, and real-time adaptive traffic signal control, each with significantly different data requirements, were considered, and the ability of the probe sampling system to support these applications was evaluated. The least-demanding applications, such as weather condition detection, can be served well even at low market penetrations of VII-capable vehicles, but the most demanding applications (real-time adaptive signal control) appear to require the majority of vehicles to be equipped. Recommendations were defined for additional research needed to support the development and deployment of a viable VII traffic probe data system. CC : 001D15C; 001D15A FD : Trafic routier; Système intégré; Véhicule routier; Infrastructure routière; Traitement donnée; Essai vraie grandeur; Evaluation système; Modèle simulation; Agrégation; Vitesse déplacement ED : Road traffic; Integrated system; Road vehicle; Road infrastructure; Data processing; Full scale mockup test; System evaluation; Simulation model; Aggregation; Speed SD : Tráfico carretera; Sistema integrado; Vehículo caminero; Infraestructura de carreteras; Tratamiento datos; Prueba sobre modelo en escala natural; Evaluación sistema; Modelo simulación; Agregación; Velocidad desplazamiento LO : INIST-10459B.354000188322620140 288/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0343729 INIST ET : Building a static farm level spatial microsimulation model for rural development and agricultural policy analysis in Ireland : Rurality and sustainability AU : HYNES (Stephen); MORRISSEY (Karyn); O'DONOGHUE (Cathal); CLARKE (Graham) AF : Department of Economics, National University of Ireland, Galway, University Road/Galway/Irlande (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : International journal of agricultural resources, governance and ecology; ISSN 1462-4605; Suisse; Da. 2009; Vol. 8; No. 2-4; Pp. 282-299; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : Using statistical matching techniques, economists can now create attribute rich datasets by matching across the common variables in two or more datasets. The farm level spatial microsimulation model developed in this paper uses one of many combinational optimatisation techniques - simulated annealing - to match the Irish Census of Agriculture to the 2005 Irish National Farm Survey (NFS). Using the new spatially disaggregated farm population microdata this paper then briefly analyses the impact of future common agricultural policy (CAP) reform on the distribution of family farm income in rural Ireland. CC : 002A32C01B3 FD : Modèle spatial; Développement agricole; Politique agricole; Recuit simulé; Recensement; Agriculture; Echelon national; Enquête sur terrain; Revenu de l'exploitation (agriculture); Irlande; Enquête sur exploitations agricoles; Exploitation agricole familiale FG : Europe; Europe Ouest ED : Spatial model; Agricultural development; Agricultural policy; Simulated annealing; Census; Agriculture; National scope; Field inquiry; Farm income; Ireland; Farm surveys; Family farms EG : Europe; Western Europe SD : Modelo espacial; Desarrollo agrícola; Política agrícola; Recocido simulado; Censo; Agricultura; Escalón nacional; Encuesta sobre terreno; Renta de la explotación; Irlanda; Encuestas sobre explotaciones; Explotación agrícola familiar LO : INIST-27536.354000170835860090 289/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0308207 INIST ET : Individualizing colonoscopy screening by sex and race AU : LANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris); VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein); ZAUBER (Ann G.); BOER (Rob); WILSCHUT (Janneke); WINAWER (Sidney J.); HABBEMA (J. Dik F.) AF : Department of Public Health Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut., 7 aut.); Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center/New York/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Department of Medicine, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center/New York/Etats-Unis (6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Gastrointestinal endoscopy; ISSN 0016-5107; Coden GAENBQ; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; Vol. 70; No. 1; Pp. 96-108; Bibl. 77 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: There is increasing discussion whether colorectal cancer (CRC) screening guidelines should be individualized by sex and race. Objectives: To determine individualized colonoscopic screening guidelines by sex and race for the average-risk population and to compare the cost-effectiveness of this approach with that of uniform guidelines for all. Design: We used the MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model to estimate life expectancy and lifetime CRC screening and treatment costs in a U.S. cohort of black and white men and women at average risk for CRC. We compared the base-case strategy of no screening and 3 competing colonoscopy strategies: (1) the currently recommended &dquot;uniform 10-yearly colonoscopy from age 50 years,&dquot; (2) a shorter interval &dquot;uniform 8-yearly colonoscopy from age 51 years,&dquot; and (3) &dquot;individualized screening according to sex and race.&dquot; Results: The base-case strategy of no screening was the least expensive, yet least effective. The uniform 10-yearly colonoscopy strategy was dominated. The uniform 8-yearly colonoscopy and individualized strategies both increased life expectancy by 0.0433 to 0.0435 years per individual, at a cost of $15,565 to $15,837 per life-year gained. In the individualized strategy, blacks began screening 6 years earlier, with a 1-year shorter interval compared with whites. The individualized policies were essentially the same for men and women, because the higher CRC risk in men was offset by their shorter life expectancy. The results were robust for changes in model assumptions. Conclusions: The improvements in costs and effects of individualizing CRC screening on a population level were only marginal. Individualized guidelines, however, could contribute to decreasing disparities between blacks and whites. The acceptability and feasibility of individualized guidelines, therefore, should be explored. CC : 002B13; 002B24E06 FD : Endoscopie; Colonoscopie; Dépistage; Sexe; Race; Gastroentérologie FG : Epidémiologie ED : Endoscopy; Colonoscopy; Medical screening; Sex; Race; Gastroenterology EG : Epidemiology SD : Endoscopía; Colonoscopía; Descubrimiento; Sexo; Raza; Gastroenterología LO : INIST-16553.354000187248400150 290/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0304245 INIST ET : Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Mammography and Clinical Breast Examination Strategies: A Comparison with Current Guidelines AU : HSIEH AHERN (Charlotte); YU SHEN AF : Department of Medicine, Division of Biostatistics, The Dan L. Duncan Cancer Center at Baylor College of Medicine/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Biostatistics, The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center/Houston, Texas/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention; ISSN 1055-9965; Coden CEBPE4; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; Vol. 18; No. 3; Pp. 718-725; Bibl. 53 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Purpose: Breast cancer screening by mammography and clinical breast exam are commonly used for early tumor detection. Previous cost-effectiveness studies considered mammography alone or did not account for all relevant costs. In this study, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of screening schedules recommended by three major cancer organizations and compared them with alternative strategies. We considered costs of screening examinations, subsequent work-up, biopsy, and treatment interventions after diagnosis. Methods: We used a microsimulation model to generate women's life histories, and assessed screening and treatment effects on survival. Using statistical models, we accounted for age-specific incidence, preclinical disease duration, and age-specific sensitivity and specificity for each screening modality. The outcomes of interest were quality-adjusted life years (QALY) saved and total costs with a 3% annual discount rate. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were used to compare strategies. Sensitivity analyses were done by varying some of the assumptions. Results: Compared with guidelines from the National Cancer Institute and the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, alternative strategies were more efficient. Mammography and clinical breast exam in alternating years from ages 40 to 79 years was a cost-effective alternative compared with the guidelines, costing $35,500 per QALY saved compared with no screening. The American Cancer Society guideline was the most effective and the most expensive, costing over $680,000 for an added QALY compared with the above alternative. Conclusion: Screening strategies with lower costs and benefits comparable with those currently recommended should be considered for implementation in practice and for future guidelines. CC : 002B04 FD : Mammographie; Analyse coût efficacité; Glande mammaire; Exploration clinique; Sein; Stratégie; Etude comparative; Recommandation; Cancérologie FG : Radiodiagnostic ED : Mammography; Cost efficiency analysis; Mammary gland; Clinical investigation; Breast; Strategy; Comparative study; Recommendation; Cancerology EG : Radiodiagnosis SD : Mastografía; Análisis costo eficacia; Glándula mamaria; Exploración clínica; Seno; Estrategia; Estudio comparativo; Recomendación; Cancerología LO : INIST-26637.354000188408100060 291/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0264009 INIST ET : Role of microsimulation in evaluating intelligent transportation systems applications in urban transportation AU : KHAN (A. M.); ARMSTRONG (J.); MUNIR (A.); BREBBIA (C. A.); DOLEZEL (V.) AF : Carleton University/Ottawa/Canada (1 aut.); Morrison Hershfield Limited & Carleton University/Ottawa/Canada (2 aut.); Morrison Hershfield Limited/Burlington/Canada (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transactions on the built environment; ISSN 1746-4498; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2006; Vol. 89; Pp. 723-732; Bibl. 7 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Given the complexity and novel aspects of ITS-based measures for transportation network improvements, traditional macroscopic travel analysis models are of limited utility for assessing project benefits and costs. To fully capture the operational-level impacts of such technologies, a microsimulation approach is required. This paper describes the use of microsimulation techniques for studying the relative effectiveness of alternatives that include ITS applications. To illustrate the methodology, a case study involving the transportation network in Ottawa, Canada is presented. The paper is divided into five parts. First, mobility issues and the need for innovative solutions are introduced. Second, the transportation network in Ottawa is described and potential initiatives for addressing traffic congestion are noted, including demand reduction, freeway capacity expansion, and selected ITS measures. Third, the microsimulation-based modelling methodology is defined which was used to test improvement scenarios. Results from the various micro-simulation runs are then presented in terms of selected measures-of-effectiveness. Finally, conclusions drawn from the case study are presented. CC : 001D15A; 001D15B; 001D15C FD : Transport urbain; Congrès international; Système intelligent; Modèle simulation; Modèle microscopique; Gestion trafic; Canada; Scénario; Trafic routier FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Urban transportation; International conference; Intelligent system; Simulation model; Microscopic model; Traffic management; Canada; Script; Road traffic EG : North America; America SD : Transporte urbano; Congreso internacional; Sistema inteligente; Modelo simulación; Modelo microscópico; Gestión tráfico; Canadá; Argumento; Tráfico carretera LO : INIST-Y 39275.354000172942090700 292/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0261129 INIST ET : The accuracy of traffic microsimulation modelling AU : O'CINNEIDE (D.); CONNELL (D.); BREBBIA (C. A.); DOLEZEL (V.) AF : Traffic Research Unit, University College Cork/Irlande (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transactions on the built environment; ISSN 1746-4498; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2006; Vol. 89; Pp. 277-285; Bibl. 7 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Previous work at University College Cork into the use and evaluation of microsimulation models suggested they are generally suitable for the examination of alternative urban traffic management proposals but that there is little independent validation of the accuracy of microsimulation. In particular, there appeared to be difficulties in comparing the modelled and actual queue lengths. This paper describes a study into the evaluation and accuracy of urban traffic microsimulation models. This involved a review of the available information and the construction of four Pyramics microsimulation models for the road network adjacent to University College Cork. Recommendations are made on queue length validation and on improvements to microsimulation modelling. CC : 001D15A; 001D15B FD : Transport urbain; Congrès international; Modèle simulation; Ecoulement trafic; Précision; Modélisation; Congestion trafic; Gestion trafic; Modèle microscopique ED : Urban transportation; International conference; Simulation model; Traffic flow; Accuracy; Modeling; Traffic congestion; Traffic management; Microscopic model SD : Transporte urbano; Congreso internacional; Modelo simulación; Flujo tráfico; Precisión; Modelización; Congestión tráfico; Gestión tráfico; Modelo microscópico LO : INIST-Y 39275.354000172942090280 293/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0261121 INIST ET : Evaluation and further development of car following models in microscopic traffic simulation AU : HIDAS (P.); BREBBIA (C. A.); DOLEZEL (V.) AF : School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales/Sydney/Australie (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transactions on the built environment; ISSN 1746-4498; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2006; Vol. 89; Pp. 287-296; Bibl. 7 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper presents findings from a comparative evaluation of car-following behaviour in a number of microscopic traffic simulators. The paper describes the results of the calibration and validation of the car following model implemented in the ARTEMiS simulator developed by the author. The calibration and validation are based on a 'standard' car-following experiment (called the Boschtest) which used instrumented vehicles to record the speed and relative distance between follower and leader vehicles on a one-lane road, and which was previously used to evaluate a number of other state-of-the-art simulators, including AIMSUN, PARAMICS and VISSIM. The simulated car following behaviour was compared to the field data using a number of error tests. A comparison of the results showed that the ARTEMiS car following model produced the closest match to the observed data out of all the tested models. In the last section of the paper, a number of traffic situations are identified where most car following models fail to reproduce real-life driver behaviour, and solutions to overcome these weaknesses are recommended for further development of car following models in microsimulation. CC : 001D15A; 001D15C FD : Transport urbain; Congrès international; Modèle simulation; Ecoulement trafic; Trafic routier; Modèle microscopique; Suivi de véhicule ED : Urban transportation; International conference; Simulation model; Traffic flow; Road traffic; Microscopic model; Car following SD : Transporte urbano; Congreso internacional; Modelo simulación; Flujo tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Modelo microscópico LO : INIST-Y 39275.354000172942090290 294/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0259649 INIST ET : An integrated model of vehicle transactions, activity scheduling and mode choice AU : ROORDA (Matthew J.); CARRASCO (Juan A.); MILLER (Eric J.); TIMMERMANS (Harry J. P.); HUNYI ZHANG AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street/Toronto, Ontario, M5S 1A4/Canada (1 aut., 3 aut.); Departmento de Ingenieria Civil, Universidad de Concepcion, Casilla 160-C/Concepción/Chili (2 aut.); Urban Planning Group, Department of Building and Architecture, Eindhoven University of Technology, P.O. Box 513/5600 MB Eindhoven/Pays-Bas (1 aut.); Transportation Engineering Laboratory (HiTEL), Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University/1-5-1 Kagamiyama, Higashi-Hiroshima 739-8529/Japon (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part B : methodological; ISSN 0191-2615; Coden TRBMDY; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 43; No. 2; Pp. 217-229; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : An integrated model of vehicle transactions, activity scheduling and mode choice is estimated based on a retrospective vehicle transaction survey in the Toronto Area. First a conceptual framework is presented which links long run decisions of automobile transactions with short run decisions of activity participation, travel and mode choice. The concept of activity/travel stress is introduced to represent the difference between household activity/travel with the current vehicle fleet and that associated with alternative fleets due to purchase or disposal of a vehicle. The concept of stress is operationalized with a utility-based formulation in which two measures of activity/travel stress are simulated for each household, mode choice utility gained by making a vehicle transaction, and the change in number of conflicts experienced in the household over a limited number of vehicles. These measures are simulated with multiple replications of an activity-based microsimulation model of activity scheduling and mode choice that explicitly represents household interactions of vehicle allocation, ridesharing and drop-off/pick-up of household members. The empirical analysis indicates, for both stress measures, an asymmetry associated with vehicle transactions. Households increase their activity/travel stress far more by disposing of a vehicle, than they alleviate stress by purchasing a vehicle. A nested logit vehicle transaction model shows that both measures of stress are moderately significant influences on vehicle transactions. CC : 001D15A; 001D15C FD : Transports; Modélisation; Ménage; Prise de décision; Activité; Automobile; Intégration; Propriétaire; Ordonnancement; Choix modal; Hétérogénéité; Analyse contrainte ED : Transportation; Modeling; Household; Decision making; Activity; Motor car; Integration; Owner; Scheduling; Modal choice; Heterogeneity; Stress analysis SD : Transportes; Modelización; Familia; Toma decision; Actividad; Automóvil; Integración; Propietario; Reglamento; Elección modal; Heterogeneidad; Análisis tensión LO : INIST-12377B.354000186347260030 295/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0258016 INIST ET : Assessing container operator efficiency with heterogeneous and time-varying production frontiers AU : JIA YAN; XINYU SUN; LIU (John J.) AF : School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University, Hulbert 101/Pullman, WA 99164/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Faculty of Business Administration, Xi'an University of Technology/Chine (2 aut.); Faculty of Business, Hong Kong Polytechnic University/Hung Horn, Kowloon/Hong-Kong (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part B : methodological; ISSN 0191-2615; Coden TRBMDY; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 43; No. 1; Pp. 172-185; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : We build an empirical model under the stochastic frontier framework to assess production efficiencies of container operators from the world's major container ports in the years between 1997 and 2004. The empirical model measures efficiencies, efficiency changes, and time-persistence of efficiencies after controlling for the individual heterogeneity in technology and technical change. The model is estimated using a Bayesian approach via the Markov Chain Monte-Carlo simulation. We find that the mean efficiency level of the container operators is in the range of 70-90% of their full efficiencies, and the mean efficiency changed with time slightly. However, the percentage of highly efficient operators has increased since 1997. Common model misspecifications without controlling for the individual heterogeneity and technical change can alter the results dramatically. CC : 001D15E; 001D15B FD : Trafic portuaire; Modélisation; Analyse stochastique; Modèle empirique; Efficacité; Production; Estimation Bayes; Modèle économétrique; Analyse sensibilité ED : Harbor traffic; Modeling; Stochastic analysis; Empirical model; Efficiency; Production; Bayes estimation; Econometric model; Sensitivity analysis SD : Tráfico portuario; Modelización; Análisis estocástico; Modelo empírico; Eficacia; Producción; Estimación Bayes; Modelo econométrico; Análisis sensibilidad LO : INIST-12377B.354000183951790120 296/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0256544 INIST ET : Using ITS to Improve the Capacity of Freeway Merging Sections by Transferring Freight Vehicles AU : SARVI (Majid); KUWAHARA (Masao) AF : Institute of Transport Studies, Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University/Melbourne, Vic. 3800/Australie (1 aut.); Kuwahara Laboratory, Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo/Tokyo 153-8505/Japon (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : IEEE Transactions on intelligent transportation systems; ISSN 1524-9050; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; Vol. 9; No. 4; Pp. 580-588; Bibl. 37 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper investigates the effect of heavy commercial vehicles on traffic characteristics and operation of freeway merging sections. Freeways are designed to facilitate the flow of traffic, including passenger cars and trucks. The impact of these different vehicle types is not uniform, creating problems in freeway operations and safety, particularly in the vicinity of merging sections. There have been very few studies that are concerned with the traffic behavior and characteristics of heavy vehicles in these situations. Therefore, a three-year study was undertaken to investigate traffic behavior and operating characteristics during the merging process under congested traffic conditions. First extensive traffic data collection captured a wide range of traffic and geometric information using detectors, videotaping, and surveys at several interchanges. The macroscopic detector data were used to identify and quantify the impact of heavy commercial vehicles on the capacity of merging sections. Subsequently, the microscopic data were utilized to establish a model for the behavior of drivers at merging sections. Based on this behavioral model, a microsimulation program was developed to simulate the actual traffic conditions. This model was used to evaluate the capacity of a merging section for a given geometric design and traffic flow condition. In addition, this model was employed to develop a variety of intelligent transport system control strategies that are associated with heavy commercial vehicles with the goal of designing safer and less-congested freeway merging points. The implementation of the proposed control strategies showed significant improvement over the capacity of merging sections. CC : 001D15C; 001D02C FD : Automobile; Sécurité; Base de données; Intelligence artificielle; Système intelligent; Autoroute; Trafic routier; Fret; Trafic dense; Véhicule utilitaire; Ecoulement trafic; Camion; Condition opératoire; Congestion trafic; Gestion trafic; Modélisation; Modèle géométrique; Modèle comportement ED : Motor car; Safety; Database; Artificial intelligence; Intelligent system; Freeway; Road traffic; Freight; Heavy traffic; Commercial vehicle; Traffic flow; Lorry; Operating conditions; Traffic congestion; Traffic management; Modeling; Geometrical model; Behavior model SD : Automóvil; Seguridad; Base dato; Inteligencia artificial; Sistema inteligente; Autopista; Tráfico carretera; Tráfico denso; Vehículo utilitario; Flujo tráfico; Camión; Condición operatoria; Congestión tráfico; Gestión tráfico; Modelización; Modelo geométrico; Modelo comportamiento LO : INIST-27061.354000184892530020 297/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0247753 INIST ET : A spatial microsimulation model with student agents AU : WU (B. M.); BIRKIN (M. H.); REES (P. H.); DRAGICEVIC (Suzana) AF : School of Geography, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane/Leeds LS2 9JT/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); Spatial Analysis and Modeling Laboratory, Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive/Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6/Canada (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Computers, environment and urban systems; ISSN 0198-9715; Coden CEUSD5; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2008; Vol. 32; No. 6; Pp. 440-453; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : In this paper, we present a dynamic simulation model which projects the future population of the city of Leeds as a basis for policy analysis and scenario planning. We argue that microsimulation modelling is not entirely effective in the representation of student populations. Alternative approaches using both spatial interaction models and student agents are presented and evaluated. The results from the agent-based model are found to be particularly encouraging. We suggest that agent-based modelling and microsimulation are powerful as complementary technologies for individual-based modelling. CC : 001D14C03; 001D14A06; 295 FD : Modélisation; Aménagement urbain; Simulation; Analyse spatiale; Politique; Scénario; Migration; Interaction; Royaume-Uni; Orienté agent; Application FG : Europe ED : Modeling; Urban planning; Simulation; Spatial analysis; Policy; Script; Migration; Interaction; United Kingdom; Agent oriented; Application EG : Europe SD : Modelización; Planeamiento urbano; Simulación; Análisis espacial; Política; Argumento; Migración; Interacción; Reino Unido; Orientado agente; Aplicación LO : INIST-20192.354000184586540030 298/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0247112 INIST ET : Identification of peer effects through social networks AU : BRAMOULLE (Yann); DJEBBARI (Habiba); FORTIN (Bernard) AF : CIRPÉE, Université Laval, Canada Department of Economics, Université Laval/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2009; Vol. 150; No. 1; Pp. 41-55; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : We provide new results regarding the identification of peer effects. We consider an extended version of the linear-in-means model where interactions are structured through a social network. We assume that correlated unobservables are either absent, or treated as network fixed effects. We provide easy-to-check necessary and sufficient conditions for identification. We show that endogenous and exogenous effects are generally identified under network interaction, although identification may fail for some particular structures. We use data from the Add Health survey to provide an empirical application of our results on the consumption of recreational services (e.g., participation in artistic, sports and social activities) by secondary school students. Monte Carlo simulations calibrated on this application provide an analysis of the effects of some crucial characteristics of a network (i.e., density, intransitivity) on the estimates of peer effects. Our approach generalizes a number of previous results due to Manski [Manski, C., 1993. Identification of endogenous social effects: The reflection problem. Review of Economic Studies 60 (3), 531-542], Moffitt [Moffitt, R., 2001. Policy interventions low-level equilibria, and social interactions. In: Durlauf, Steven, Young, Peyton (Eds.), Social Dynamics. MIT Press] and Lee [Lee, L.F., 2007. Identification and estimation of econometric models with group interactions, contextual factors and fixed effects. Journal of Econometrics 140 (2), 333-374]. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02H02N4; 001A02H02N3; 001A02H02F FD : Biométrie; Science médicale; Distribution statistique; Théorie approximation; Analyse numérique; Méthode stochastique; Modèle linéaire; Interaction; Analyse corrélation; Condition nécessaire; Condition nécessaire suffisante; Condition suffisante; Sondage statistique; Méthode Monte Carlo; Simulation; Estimation densité; Article synthèse; Sciences économiques; Modèle économétrique; Econométrie; Méthode statistique; Estimation statistique; Analyse donnée; Donnée économique; 62P10; 62E17; 65C05; 62P20; Effet fixe ED : Biometrics; Medical science; Statistical distribution; Approximation theory; Numerical analysis; Stochastic method; Linear model; Interaction; Correlation analysis; Necessary condition; Necessary and sufficient condition; Sufficient condition; Sample survey; Monte Carlo method; Simulation; Density estimation; Review; Economic sciences; Econometric model; Econometrics; Statistical method; Statistical estimation; Data analysis; Economic data; Fixed effect SD : Biometría; Ciencia Medica; Distribución estadística; Análisis numérico; Método estocástico; Modelo lineal; Interacción; Análisis correlación; Condición necesaria; Condición necesaria suficiente; Condición suficiente; Ecuesta estadística; Método Monte Carlo; Simulación; Estimación densidad; Artículo síntesis; Ciencias económicas; Modelo econométrico; Econometría; Método estadístico; Estimación estadística; Análisis datos; Dato económico LO : INIST-16460.354000188472110040 299/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0227646 INIST ET : A Novel Hypothesis on the Sensitivity of the Fecal Occult Blood Test: Results of a Joint Analysis of 3 Randomized Controlled Trials AU : LANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris); VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein); BOER (Rob); ZAUBER (Ann); HABBEMA (J. Dik F.) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 5 aut.); Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center/New York, New York/Etats-Unis (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Cancer; ISSN 0008-543X; Coden CANCAR; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; Vol. 115; No. 11; Pp. 2410-2419; Bibl. 31 ref. LA : Anglais EA : BACKGROUND: Estimates of the fecal occult blood test (FOBT) (Hemoccult II) sensitivity differed widely between screening trials and led to divergent conclusions on the effects of FOBT screening. We used microsimulation modeling to estimate a preclinical colorectal cancer (CRC) duration and sensitivity for unrehydrated FOBT from the data of 3 randomized controlled trials of Minnesota, Nottingham, and Funen. In addition to 2 usual hypotheses on the sensitivity of FOBT, we tested a novel hypothesis where sensitivity is linked to the stage of clinical diagnosis in the situation without screening. METHODS: We used the MIS-CAN-Colon microsimulation model to estimate sensitivity and duration, accounting for differences between the trials in demography, background incidence, and trial design. We tested 3 hypotheses for FOBT sensitivity: sensitivity is the same for all preclinical CRC stages, sensitivity increases with each stage, and sensitivity is higher for the stage in which the cancer would have been diagnosed in the absence of screening than for earlier stages. Goodness-of-fit was evaluated by comparing expected and observed rates of screen-detected and interval CRC. RESULTS: The hypothesis with a higher sensitivity in the stage of clinical diagnosis gave the best fit. Under this hypothesis, sensitivity of FOBT was 51% in the stage of clinical diagnosis and 19% in earlier stages. The average duration of preclinical CRC was estimated at 6.7 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis corroborated a long duration of preclinical CRC, with FOBT most sensitive in the stage of clinical diagnosis. CC : 002B04; 002B13B01 FD : Cancer colorectal; Sensibilité; Fèces; Sang; Spécificité; Modèle statistique; Cancérologie; Dépistage; Homme; Essai randomisé contrôlé FG : Pathologie de l'appareil digestif; Pathologie du côlon; Pathologie de l'intestin; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Pathologie du rectum; Santé publique ED : Colorectal cancer; Sensitivity; Feces; Blood; Specificity; Statistical model; Cancerology; Medical screening; Human; Randomized controlled trial EG : Digestive diseases; Colonic disease; Intestinal disease; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Rectal disease; Public health SD : Cancer de colon y recto; Sensibilidad; Heces; Sangre; Especificidad; Modelo estadístico; Cancerología; Descubrimiento; Hombre; Ensayo aleatorio controlado LO : INIST-2701.354000186195520050 300/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0192957 INIST ET : Lead Time and Overdiagnosis in Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening : Importance of Methods and Context AU : DRAISMA (Gerrit); ETZIONI (Ruth); TSODIKOV (Alex); MARIOTTO (Angela); WEVER (Elisabeth); GULATI (Roman); FEUER (Eric); DE KONING (Harry) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 5 aut., 8 aut.); Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center/Seattle, WA/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 6 aut.); Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan/Ann Arbor, MI/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute/Bethesda, MD/Etats-Unis (4 aut., 7 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of the National Cancer Institute; ISSN 0027-8874; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; Vol. 101; No. 6; Pp. 374-383; Bibl. 39 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background The time by which prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening advances prostate cancer diagnosis, called the lead time, has been reported by several studies, but results have varied widely, with mean lead times ranging from 3 to 12 years. A quantity that is closely linked with the lead time is the overdiagnosis frequency, which is the fraction of screen-detected cancers that would not have been diagnosed in the absence of screening. Reported overdiagnosis estimates have also been variable, ranging from 25% to greater than 80% of screen-detected cancers. Methods We used three independently developed mathematical models of prostate cancer progression and detection that were calibrated to incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to estimate lead times and the fraction of overdiagnosed cancers due to PSA screening among US men aged 54-80 years in 1985-2000. Lead times were estimated by use of three definitions. We also compared US and earlier estimates from the Rotterdam section of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) that were calculated by use of a microsimulation screening analysis (MISCAN) model. Results The models yielded similar estimates for each definition of lead time, but estimates differed across definitions. Among screen-detected cancers that would have been diagnosed in the patients' lifetimes, the estimated mean lead time ranged from 5.4 to 6.9 years across models, and overdiagnosis ranged from 23% to 42% of all screen-detected cancers. The original MISCAN model fitted to ERSPC Rotterdam data predicted a mean lead time of 7.9 years and an overdiagnosis estimate of 66%; in the model that was calibrated to the US data, these were 6.9 years and 42%, respectively. Conclusion The precise definition and the population used to estimate lead time and overdiagnosis can be important drivers of study results and should be clearly specified. CC : 002B04; 002B14D02 FD : Marqueur tumoral; Urologie; Antigène spécifique prostate; Cancer de la prostate; Dépistage; Méthode; Cancérologie; Etats-Unis; Homme; Surdiagnostic FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Pathologie de la prostate; Pathologie de l'appareil génital mâle; Pathologie de l'appareil urinaire; Santé publique ED : Tumoral marker; Urology; Prostate specific antigen; Prostate cancer; Medical screening; Method; Cancerology; United States; Human; Overdiagnosis EG : North America; America; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Prostate disease; Male genital diseases; Urinary system disease; Public health SD : Marcador tumoral; Urología; Antigeno específico prostata; Cáncer de la próstata; Descubrimiento; Método; Cancerología; Estados Unidos; Hombre; Sobrediagnóstico LO : INIST-3364.354000184851030030 301/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0178476 INIST ET : Evaluation of Information Applications of a Self-Organizing Distributed Traffic Information System for a Large-Scale Real-World Traffic Network AU : XU YANG; RECKER (Will) AF : Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California/Irvine, CA 92697/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Institute of Transportation Studies and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California/Irvine, CA 92697/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Computer-aided civil and infrastructure engineering; ISSN 1093-9687; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; Vol. 23; No. 8; Pp. 575-595; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : This article presents an evaluation of the system performance of a proposed self-organizing, distributed traffic information system based on vehicle-to-vehicle information-sharing architecture. Using microsimulation, several information applications derived from this system are analyzed relative to the effectiveness and efficiency of the system to estimate traffic conditions along each individual path in the network, to identify possible incidents in the traffic network, and to provide rerouting strategies for vehicles to escape congested spots in the network. A subset of vehicles in the traffic network is equipped with specific intervehicle communication devices capable of autonomous traffic surveillance, peer-to-peer information sharing, and self-data processing. A self-organizing traffic information overlay on the existing vehicular roadway network assists their independent evaluation of route information, detection of traffic incidents, and dynamic rerouting in the network based both on historical information stored in an in-vehicle database and on real-time information disseminated through intervehicle communications. A path-based microsimulation model is developed for these information applications and the proposed distributed traffic information system is tested in a large-scale real-world network. Based on simulation study results, potential benefits both for travelers with such equipment as well as for the traffic system as a whole are demonstrated. CC : 001D15A; 001D15C FD : Transports; Performance système; Système information; Trafic routier; Application; Système réparti; Echelle grande; Réseau transport; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Autoorganisation; Evaluation système; Routage; Durée trajet ED : Transportation; System performance; Information system; Road traffic; Application; Distributed system; Large scale; Transportation network; Modeling; Simulation model; Self organization; System evaluation; Routing; Travel time SD : Transportes; Eficacia sistema; Sistema información; Tráfico carretera; Aplicación; Sistema repartido; Escala grande; Red transporte; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Autoorganización; Evaluación sistema; Enrutamiento; Duración trayecto LO : INIST-21160.354000185236710010 302/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0175019 INIST ET : Patient outcome after aortic valve replacement with a mechanical or biological prosthesis : Weighing lifetime anticoagulant-related event risk against reoperation risk AU : VAN GELDORP (Martijn W. A.); JAMIESON (W. R. Eric); KAPPETEIN (A. Pieter); JIAN YE; FRADET (Guy J.); EIJKEMANS (Marinus J. C.); GRUNKEMEIER (Gary L.); BOGERS (Ad J. J. C.); TAKKENBERG (Johanna J. M.) AF : Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Erasmus University Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 3 aut., 8 aut., 9 aut.); University of British Columbia/Vancouver/Canada (2 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut.); Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (6 aut.); Providence Health System/Portland, Oregon/Etats-Unis (7 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of thoracic and cardiovascular surgery; ISSN 0022-5223; Coden JTCSAQ; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; Vol. 137; No. 4; Pp. 881-886; Bibl. 30 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Objective: Although the results of aortic valve replacement with different valve prostheses are well documented in terms of survival, the risks of (valve-related) events are less well explored. Methods: We used a dataset of 3934 patients who underwent aortic valve replacement with either a bioprosthesis (73%) or a mechanical prosthesis (27%) between 1982 and 2003 to simulate the outcome of patients after aortic valve replacement with either valve type. With the use of microsimulation, we compared total age and gender-specific life expectancy, event-free life expectancy, reoperation-free life expectancy, lifetime risks of reoperation, and valve-related events for both valve types. Results: The total follow-up was 26,467 patient-years. The mean follow-up was 6.1 years in the biological arm and 8.5 years in the mechanical arm. The mean age at implantation was 70 and 58 years for biological and mechanical prostheses, respectively, and the percentage of concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting was 47% and 28%, respectively. For a 60-year-old man, simulated life expectancy in years for biological versus mechanical prostheses was 11.9 versus 12.2, event-free life expectancy was 9.8 versus 9.3, and reoperation-free life expectancy was 10.5 versus 11.9. Lifetime risk of reoperation was 25% versus 3%. Lifetime risk of bleeding was 12% versus 41%. Conclusion: Even for patients aged 60 years, event-free life expectancy is better with a bioprosthesis. Although the chance of reoperation is higher, the lifetime risk of bleeding is lower compared with a mechanical prosthesis. Comparing lifetime event risks between different types of valve prostheses provides more insight into patient outcome after aortic valve replacement and aids patient selection and counseling. CC : 002B11; 002B12; 002B27 FD : Homme; Malade; Evolution; Pronostic; Valvule aortique; Chirurgie; Valvule cardiaque; Biologie; Prothèse; Durée vie; Anticoagulant; Facteur risque; Risque; Réintervention; Anesthésie; Appareil circulatoire; Cardiologie; Traitement ED : Human; Patient; Evolution; Prognosis; Aortic valve; Surgery; Heart valve; Biology; Prosthesis; Lifetime; Anticoagulant; Risk factor; Risk; Reoperation; Anesthesia; Circulatory system; Cardiology; Treatment SD : Hombre; Enfermo; Evolución; Pronóstico; Válvula aórtica; Cirugía; Válvula cardíaca; Biología; Prótesis; Tiempo vida; Anticoagulante; Factor riesgo; Riesgo; Reintervención; Anestesia; Aparato circulatorio; Cardiología; Tratamiento LO : INIST-9747.354000196149580140 303/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0170972 INIST ET : The Less-Than-Perfect Driver : A Model of Collision-Inclusive Car-Following Behavior AU : WUPING XIN; HOURDOS (John); MICHALOPOULOS (Panos); DAVIS (Gary) AF : Research and Development Division, KLD Associates, Inc., Suite 8, 47 Mall Drive/Commack, NY 11725/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Minnesota Traffic Observatory, University of Minnesota, 500 Pillsbury Drive Southeast/Minneapolis, MN 55455/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, 500 Pillsbury Drive Southeast/Minneapolis, MN 55455/Etats-Unis (3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2088; Pp. 126-137; Bibl. 47 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Unlike traditional car-following models that preclude vehicle collisions, a proposed model aims to emulate less-than-perfect everyday driving while capturing both safe and unsafe driver behavior. Most important, a realistic perception-response process is incorporated into the model on the basis of developments from visual perception studies. Driver inattention is characterized by a driver-specific variable called the scanning interval. This variable, when coupled with the driver's visual perception-response process, results in variable reaction times that are dependent not only on each driver's individual characteristics but also on instantaneous traffic conditions such as speed and density. This allows closer emulation of real-life human driving and its interactions with surrounding vehicles. Both inter- and intradriver variations in reaction time are captured in a plausible and coherent manner; in earlier studies, reaction time either was presumed fixed or was of limited variability. Furthermore, parameters of this model have a direct physical and behavioral meaning; this implies that vehicle collisions, if any, can be analyzed for behavioral patterns rather than simply being treated as numerical artifacts. In all, 54 detailed and accurate vehicle trajectories extracted from 10 real-life crashes were used to test the model's capability of replicating freeway rear-end collisions. High-resolution crash-free trajectory data were used to validate the model against normal driving behavior. Test results indicate that the proposed model is able to replicate both normal and unsafe driving behavior that could lead to vehicle collisions. The feasibility of integrating the proposed model with existing microsimulators is discussed. The outcome of this work could facilitate studying crash mechanisms at a high-definition microscopic level and could enable safety-related system design improvements and evaluation through microsimulation software. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Ecoulement trafic; Modèle simulation; Comportement; Collision; Conducteur véhicule; Essai; Etalonnage; Validation; Statistique; Suivi de véhicule ED : Road traffic; Traffic flow; Simulation model; Behavior; Collision; Vehicle driver; Test; Calibration; Validation; Statistics; Car following SD : Tráfico carretera; Flujo tráfico; Modelo simulación; Conducta; Colisión; Conductor vehículo; Ensayo; Contraste; Validación; Estadística LO : INIST-10459B.354000186960140140 304/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0170968 INIST ET : Evaluation of Corridor Traffic Management and Planning Strategies That Use Microsimulation : A Case Study AU : LIU (Henry X.); EDDIN JABARI (Saif) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities, 500 Pillsbury Drive Southeast/Minneapolis, MN 55455/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2088; Pp. 26-35; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The California SR-41 corridor simulation project is presented as a case study of how to utilize microscopic traffic simulation for planning purposes. Two of the most important components of preparing simulation models for planning purposes are emphasized: origin-destination (O-D) matrix calibration and peak spreading for long-term testing (e.g., 20-year horizons) to overcome unrealistic network gridlock. With streamlining of the O-D calibration process, it is shown that the proposed model reproduces count and travel-time information collected from the field. Incorporating peak spreading as a result of congestion for long-term scenarios is also shown to yield performance improvements in the models and overcome network gridlock issues common to such applications. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Ecoulement trafic; Modèle simulation; Gestion trafic; Planification; Stratégie; Etude cas; Californie; Corridor; Evaluation projet; Etalonnage; Scénario; Essai; Vitesse déplacement FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Traffic flow; Simulation model; Traffic management; Planning; Strategy; Case study; California; Corridor; Project evaluation; Calibration; Script; Test; Speed EG : United States; North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Flujo tráfico; Modelo simulación; Gestión tráfico; Planificación; Estrategia; Estudio caso; California; Corredor; Evaluación proyecto; Contraste; Argumento; Ensayo; Velocidad desplazamiento LO : INIST-10459B.354000186960140040 305/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0170962 INIST ET : Use of Microsimulation to Model Day-to-Day Variability of Intersection Performance AU : ABDY (Zeeshan R.); HELLINGA (Bruce R.) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West/Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2088; Pp. 18-25; Bibl. 12 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Quantifying intersection performance is often a key aspect of transportation engineering studies. These studies commonly use microsimulation tools to evaluate intersection performance for vehicle delay by averaging results from several simulation runs (each with a different pseudorandom number seed) for a set of traffic and control conditions. Previous research has showed that this approach may lead to a bias in the estimation of both the mean and the standard deviation of field delay. This paper examines the issue of explicitly modeling the day-to-day variability in intersection delay by using microsimulation modeling. The results show that the prevalent method of using multiple runs, each with the same traffic demands but with different pseudorandom number seeds, does not adequately capture the day-to-day variability observed in the field. Consequently, two alternative methods for modeling day-to-day variability of intersection performance are presented and examined. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B; 001D14O02; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Ecoulement trafic; Modèle simulation; Evaluation performance; Intersection; Variation d'un jour à l'autre; Variabilité; Etude comparative; Recommandation ED : Road traffic; Traffic flow; Simulation model; Performance evaluation; Intersection; Day to day variation; Variability; Comparative study; Recommendation SD : Tráfico carretera; Flujo tráfico; Modelo simulación; Evaluación prestación; Intersección; Variación de una día al otro; Variabilidad; Estudio comparativo; Recomendación LO : INIST-10459B.354000186960140030 306/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0170953 INIST ET : Comparison of Simulation-Based and Model-Based Calibrations of Traffic-Flow Microsimulation Models AU : CIUFFO (Biagio); PUNZO (Vincenzo); TORRIERI (Vincenzo) AF : Department of Transportation Engineering, Università di Napoli &dquot;Federico II,&dquot; Via Claudio 21/80125 Napoli/Italie (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2088; Pp. 36-44; Bibl. 20 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Parameter calibration of traffic microsimulation models usually takes the form of a simulation-based optimization problem, that is, an optimization in which every objective function evaluation calls for a simulation. It is recognized that such a problem is computationally intractable. Running time grows exponentially both in the number of parameters and in the digits accuracy. In addition, considerable computing time is required by each objective function evaluation. This means that only heuristic techniques can be applied. Accordingly, results of the application of the OptQuest/Multistart algorithm to the calibration of AIMSUN microsimulation model parameters on a freeway network are presented. Furthermore, it is claimed that the search for an effective solution to the calibration problem cannot be exhausted by the choice of the most efficient optimization algorithm. The use of available information concerning the phenomenon could allow calibration performance to be enhanced, for example, by reducing dimensions of the domain of feasible solutions. It is argued that this goal could be achieved by using information from the stationary counterpart of microscopic traffic-flow models that depict the aggregate variables of traffic flows as a function of drivers' microscopic parameters. Because they have a closed analytical formulation, they are well suited for faster calibrations. Results show that values of parameters from stationary model-based calibrations are not far from the optimal ones. Thus the integration of the two approaches cannot be excluded but is worth investigating. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Ecoulement trafic; Modèle simulation; Etude comparative; Etalonnage; Fonction objectif; Méthodologie; Etude cas; Scénario; Autoroute ED : Road traffic; Traffic flow; Simulation model; Comparative study; Calibration; Objective function; Methodology; Case study; Script; Freeway SD : Tráfico carretera; Flujo tráfico; Modelo simulación; Estudio comparativo; Contraste; Función objetivo; Metodología; Estudio caso; Argumento; Autopista LO : INIST-10459B.354000186960140050 307/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0170952 INIST ET : Microsimulation Calibration Using Speed-Flow Relationships AU : MENNENI (Sandeep); SUN (Carlos); VORTISCH (Peter) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Missouri, E2509 Lafferre Hall/Columbia, MO 65211/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); Planung Transport Verkehr AG, Stumpfstrasse 1/76131 Karlsruhe/Allemagne (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2088; Pp. 1-9; Bibl. 20 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A microsimulation calibration methodology based on matching speed-flow graphs from field and simulation is presented. Evaluation and automation of matching speed-flow graphs are based on methods from pattern recognition. The methodology was applied to the US-101 freeway network in San Francisco, California, by using an evolutionary algorithm. The methodology is compared to traditional methods of calibration based on capacity and is shown to perform better. In addition, a small-scale test-network simulation model was developed to assist in calibration of large-scale simulation models. The performance of the test-network-based calibration is comparable to the US-101 simulation model. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Ecoulement trafic; Modèle simulation; Vitesse déplacement; Etalonnage; Californie; Etude cas; Fonction objectif FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Traffic flow; Simulation model; Speed; Calibration; California; Case study; Objective function EG : United States; North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Flujo tráfico; Modelo simulación; Velocidad desplazamiento; Contraste; California; Estudio caso; Función objetivo LO : INIST-10459B.354000186960140010 308/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0170949 INIST ET : Derivation and Validation of New Simulation-Based Surrogate Safety Measure AU : OZBAY (Kaan); HONG YANG; BARTIN (Bekir); MUDIGONDA (Sandeep) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rutgers University, 623 Bowser Road/Piscataway, NJ 08854/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2083; Pp. 105-113; Bibl. 26 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Traffic safety evaluation is one of the most important processes in analyzing transportation systems performance. Traditional methods like statistical models and before-after comparisons have many drawbacks, such as limited time periods, sample size problems, and reporting errors. The advancement of traffic conflict techniques combined with microsimulation offers a potentially innovative way for conducting safety assessment of traffic systems even before safety improvements are implemented. In this paper, simulation-based safety studies are reviewed, and a modified simulation-based surrogate safety measure and a new simulation-based surrogate safety measure that can capture the probability of collisions, as well as the severity of these potential collisions, are proposed. Conceptual and computational logic of the proposed surrogate safety indicators are described in detail. These surrogate safety indices are initially proposed for link-based analysis and should not be used for other purposes, such as intersection safety assessment, without further enhancements, and the use of these indices should be limited to the analysis of linear conflicts. In addition, these link-based indices are extended to be able to conduct aggregate networkwide safety assessments. The proposed indices are validated by means of a well-calibrated traffic simulation model of a section of the New Jersey Turnpike and real accident data from the same section. Preliminary results indicate a strong relationship between the proposed surrogate safety measures and real accident data. Further research is needed to investigate these new surrogate safety indices under different locations and traffic conditions. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Sécurité trafic; Analyse donnée; Modélisation; Dérivation; Validation; Mesure sécurité; Résultat; Méthode analytique ED : Road traffic; Traffic safety; Data analysis; Modeling; Bypass; Validation; Safety measure; Result; Analytical method SD : Tráfico carretera; Seguridad tráfico; Análisis datos; Modelización; Derivación; Validación; Medida seguridad; Resultado; Método analítico LO : INIST-10459B.354000186960060120 309/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0170201 INIST ET : Network Equilibrium with Activity-Based Microsimulation Models : The New York Experience AU : VOVSHA (Peter); DONNELLY (Robert); GUPTA (Surabhi) AF : PB Americas, 1 Penn Plaza, 2nd Floor/New York, NY 10001/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2054; Pp. 102-109; Bibl. 9 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Travel demand models and network simulation models are distinct sets of procedures that are combined and interact within the framework of regional transportation modeling systems. Conventional four-step models have numerous limitations compared with more advanced activity-based microsimulation models, primarily with respect to internal consistency and detailed behavioral realism. However, two of the remaining advantages of four-step models are an established theory and an effective set of practical rules for achieving global network equilibrium so that travel time and cost simulated in the networks exactly correspond to the demand (trip tables) generated by the model. Nonetheless, this issue remains less explored and somewhat obscure for activity-based models. These models have a more complicated analytical structure compared with four-step models, which makes it difficult to derive equilibrium conditions in a rigorous theoretical manner. In addition, implementation of an activity-based model requires microsimulation of individual outcomes in the form of &dquot;crisp&dquot; discrete choices that is very different from the summation of fractional probabilities implemented in conventional models. This paper documents the results of testing various equilibrium strategies implemented with the New York City activity-based microsimulation regional travel demand model used by the New York Metropolitan Transportation Council. The purpose of the paper is twofold. First, it is intended to outline some fundamental research directions and extensions of the network equilibrium theory to cover activity-based microsimulation models in a more rigorous way. Second, it describes realistic levels of convergence that can be achieved with activity-based microsimulation models in practice and establishes practical rules and protocols for using these types of models for different projects and policies. CC : 001D15A FD : Transports; Activité; Analyse temporelle; Modèle simulation; Equilibre; Réseau; Expérience; New York; Etude théorique; Application; Statistique FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Activity; Time analysis; Simulation model; Equilibrium; Network; Experience; New York; Theoretical study; Application; Statistics EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transportes; Actividad; Análisis temporal; Modelo simulación; Equilibrio; Red; Experiencia; Nueva York; Estudio teórico; Aplicación; Estadística LO : INIST-10459B.354000184536220120 310/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0139563 INIST ET : Investigation of Attributes Determining Trip Chaining Behavior in Hybrid Microsimulation Urban Freight Models AU : QIAN WANG; HOLGUIN-VERAS (José) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 110 Eighth Street/Troy, NY 12180/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2066; Pp. 1-8; Bibl. 25 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A hybrid microsimulation modeling framework is proposed to construct goods-related vehicle tours that satisfy a known commodity flow origin-destination (O-D) matrix in an urban freight network. One distinct issue of urban freight systems-trip chaining behavior-is addressed in the modeling procedure. To shed light on the variables that play significant roles in affecting trip chaining behavior, two types of discrete choice models are estimated by using a data set from the integrative freight market simulation. These models generate probabilities that help choose destination locations and make the decision about whether to return to the base or not for each tour until the known commodity O-D matrix is satisfied. The proposed modeling framework was applied to an 84-node test network. Results show that the estimated trip length distribution is consistent with the underlying data set. Meanwhile, several attributes are found to have significant effects on the trip chaining behavior. The choice of the next destination is negatively affected by the distance from the current location to the potential destination and positively affected by the amount of cargo available for pickup and delivery. For the tour termination decision, the perceived utility of returning decreases with the increase of the return distance and increases with the accumulation of cargoes delivered. CC : 001D15C FD : Transport marchandise; Transport routier; Zone urbaine; Modèle simulation; Méthodologie; Modèle désagrégé; Choix; Résultat; Recommandation; Enchaînement des parcours ED : Freight transportation; Road transportation; Urban area; Simulation model; Methodology; Disaggregate demand model; Choice; Result; Recommendation; Trip chaining SD : Transporte mercadería; Transporte por carretera; Zona urbana; Modelo simulación; Metodología; Modelo desagregado; Elección; Resultado; Recomendación LO : INIST-10459B.354000184605690010 311/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0139535 INIST ET : Calibration Potential of Common Analytical and Microsimulation Roundabout Models : New England Case Study AU : GAGNON (Conrad); SADEK (Adel W.); TOUCHETTE (Andrew); SMITH (Mark) AF : School of Engineering, University of Vermont, 33 Colchester Avenue/Burlington, VT 05405/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); Resource Systems Group, Inc., 60 Lake Street, Unit 1 E/Burlington, VT 05401/Etats-Unis (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2071; Pp. 77-86; Bibl. 17 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Recent interest in using modern roundabouts as an effective and safe method for intersection control in the United States stresses the need for accurate modeling tools. The objective of this paper is to assess the calibration potential of common analytical and microsimulation roundabout models to replicate operations at modern roundabouts. The models considered were aaSIDRA and RODEL (on the analytical side) and PARAMICS, SimTraffic, and VISSIM (on the microsimulation side). For this study, two modern roundabouts from New Hampshire were selected and videotaped during peak-hour conditions. The models' approach delay outputs were compared with the measured field delay from the videotapes. Model calibration parameters were systematically changed to assess their impact on the results with respect to field observations. Among the conclusions of the study are that current roundabout analysis models vary in regard to the calibration options, that calibration can have a significant impact on improving the models' results, and that calibration might be site specific. CC : 001D14O02; 001D15C; 295 FD : Carrefour giratoire; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Méthode analytique; Etalonnage; Ecoulement trafic; Trafic routier; Etude cas; Intersection; New Hampshire; Analyse donnée; Contrôle qualité; Retard FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Roundabout; Modeling; Simulation model; Analytical method; Calibration; Traffic flow; Road traffic; Case study; Intersection; New Hampshire; Data analysis; Quality control; Delay EG : United States; North America; America SD : Bifurcación giratoria; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Método analítico; Contraste; Flujo tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Estudio caso; Intersección; New Hampshire; Análisis datos; Control de calidad; Retraso LO : INIST-10459B.354000185077080100 312/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0139510 INIST ET : Implementing Actuated Signal-Controlled Intersection Capacity Analysis with Pedestrians AU : DINGXIN CHENG; TIAN (Zong Z.); HONGCHAO LIU AF : Department of Civil Engineering, California State University/Chico, CA 95929/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Nevada, Reno, Mail Stop 258/Reno, NV 89557-0152/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, M.S. 1023, Texas Tech University/Lubbock, TX 79409/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2071; Pp. 125-130; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Anglais EA : For an actuated signalized intersection, pedestrian calls are likely to affect the effective greens serving the vehicle movements, which affect the capacity and delay of the intersection. However, the current procedure in the Highway Capacity Manual 2000 (HCM) for analyzing actuated signalized intersections treats pedestrian crossing and timing statically, with either pedestrian calls at all signal cycles or no pedestrians at all. In reality, pedestrian arrivals are random events with some cycles having more pedestrians than others and other cycles having no pedestrian call at all. This paper demonstrates that the current procedure can lead to erroneous results in capacity and delay estimations. A model is introduced to overcome the shortcomings in the current procedure. The model takes into account the stochastic nature of pedestrian crossings and their effects. The model computes the probability of having pedestrian calls in a cycle and the corresponding capacities and delays for traffic movements. An implementation framework was developed to help practitioners conduct capacity analyses using the model. The model's results on a semiactuated signal-controlled intersection were comparable with the results from the Sim-Traffic microsimulation model. The effects of pedestrians on intersection capacity and delay were analyzed using the proposed model. Depending on the pedestrian volume and traffic conditions, the current HCM procedure could produce significant error, especially when the pedestrian volume is low, because it does not consider the stochastic nature of pedestrian arrivals. CC : 001D14O02; 001D14O05; 001D15C; 295 FD : Réseau routier; Intersection; Capacité; Implémentation; Signalisation commandée par trafic; Trafic piéton; Modélisation; Méthode analytique; Validation; Méthode calcul ED : Road network; Intersection; Capacity; Implementation; Traffic actuated signal control; Pedestrian traffic; Modeling; Analytical method; Validation; Computing method SD : Red carretera; Intersección; Capacidad; Implementación; Señalización regulada por tráfico; Tráfico peatones; Modelización; Método analítico; Validación; Método cálculo LO : INIST-10459B.354000185077080150 313/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0137949 INIST ET : Split-Cycle Offset Optimization Technique and Coordinated Actuated Traffic Control Evaluated Through Microsimulation AU : STEVANOVIC (Aleksandar); MARTIN (Peter T.) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, 122 South Central Campus Drive, Room 104/Salt Lake City, UT 84112-0561/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2080; Pp. 48-56; Bibl. 26 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Traffic signal timings can be optimized with offline or online tools. Offline tools, such as Synchro, take a macroscopic approach, whereas genetic algorithm (GA) formulations rely on a close interaction with traffic microsimulators. Online tools, such as the Split-Cycle Offset Optimization Technique (SCOOT), optimize in real time. Offline optimization tools have the luxury of time for repetitive computation, whereas SCOOT must work quickly as it responds to traffic detected on the streets. A comparison of the best offline tools and adaptive signal control is presented. The signal timing plans are first derived from the Synchro macroscopic optimization tool. A genetic algorithm (GA)-based formulation, which is essentially stochastic, resides in the VISSIM traffic simulation software; the GA component is known as VISGAOST. The latest version of SCOOT (MC3) is modeled with upstream and stop line detectors to enable both phase skipping and overlaps. The test bed is closely modeled on a 14-intersection network in Park City, Utah. The quality of signal timings is evaluated for two traffic demand types: expected (no significant variation) and unexpected (random variations). Results indicate that the offline GA formulation provides the optimal signal timing plans, robust enough to accommodate even randomly changing traffic demand. Similar in performance to Synchro, SCOOT delivers a creditable quality of optimization for an online optimization tool. CC : 001D14O05; 001D15C; 295 FD : Feu signalisation; Optimisation; Régulation trafic; Trafic routier; Etude méthode; Evaluation système; Modèle simulation; Etude expérimentale; Résultat expérimental; Retard; Utah; Etude comparative FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Traffic lights; Optimization; Traffic control; Road traffic; Method study; System evaluation; Simulation model; Experimental study; Experimental result; Delay; Utah; Comparative study EG : United States; North America; America SD : Semáforo; Optimización; Regulación tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Estudio método; Evaluación sistema; Modelo simulación; Estudio experimental; Resultado experimental; Retraso; Utah; Estudio comparativo LO : INIST-10459B.354000184096650060 314/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0135692 INIST ET : Simulation Model for Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Transportation and the Economy in Canada AU : MAOH (Hanna); KANAROGLOU (Pavlos); WOUDSMA (Clarence) AF : Center for Spatial Analysis, School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster University/Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4K1/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.); School of Planning, University of Waterloo/Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1/Canada (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2067; Pp. 84-92; Bibl. 20 ref. LA : Anglais EA : It is widely argued that severe weather events and episodes of poor weather conditions (cold snaps and heat waves) have significant impact on regional economies and transportation systems. Several studies have focused on quantifying this relation from observed data. However, little has been done to simulate and assess the long-term impacts of climate change on regional transportation systems and economies. This is because of the lack of simulation models that are able to link changes in weather events to transportation system performance and interregional trade flows. This paper reports on the development of CLIMATE-C, a tool for simulation of the assessment of the impact of climate on transportation and the economy in Canada. Linkages between transportation and the economy are handled through a random utility-based multiregional input-output model (RUBMRIO), which predicts interregional trade flows by truck and rail among the 76 economic regions of Canada for 43 commodities. But the influence of weather on transportation is handled through speed adjustment factors that account for the reduction in travel speeds because of changes in the frequency of various weather events. Therefore, changes in the frequency of weather events translate into travel delays, which in turn influence trade flows between regions. Sensitivity analysis with the implemented model illustrated its ability to assess the impact of climate change on transportation and the economy in Canada. CC : 001D15A; 001D15B FD : Transports; Modèle simulation; Canada; Etude impact; Changement climatique; Economie; Modèle économétrique; Implémentation; Application; Scénario FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique; Climatologie dynamique ED : Transportation; Simulation model; Canada; Impact study; Climate change; Economy; Econometric model; Implementation; Application; Script EG : North America; America; Dynamical climatology SD : Transportes; Modelo simulación; Canadá; Estudio impacto; Cambio climático; Economía; Modelo econométrico; Implementación; Aplicación; Argumento LO : INIST-10459B.354000184077350100 315/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0129957 INIST ET : Simulation based selection of competing structural econometric models AU : TONG LI AF : Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, VU Station B #351819/Nashville, TN 37235-1819/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2009; Vol. 148; No. 2; Pp. 114-123; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper proposes a formal model selection test for choosing between two competing structural econometric models. The procedure is based on a novel lack-of-fit criterion, namely, the simulated mean squared error of predictions (SMSEP), taking into account the complexity of structural econometric models. It is asymptotically valid for any fixed number of simulations, and allows for any estimator which has a √n asymptotic normality or is n&agr;-consistent for a > 1/2. The test is bi-directional and applicable to non-nested models which are both possibly misspecified. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is derived. The proposed test is general, regardless of whether the optimization criteria for estimation of competing models are the same as the SMSEP criterion used for model selection. A Monte Carlo study demonstrates good power and size properties of the test. An empirical application using timber auction data from Oregon illustrates the usefulness and generality of the proposed testing procedure. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02H02G; 001A02H01H; 001A02H02M FD : Méthode paramétrique; Statistique rang; Problème sélection; Sciences économiques; Processus stochastique; Théorie prédiction; Théorie filtrage; Distribution statistique; Comportement asymptotique; Analyse numérique; Programmation mathématique; Théorie approximation; Méthode stochastique; Simulation; Modèle structure; Modèle économétrique; Econométrie; Sélection modèle; Erreur moyenne; Estimation moyenne; Estimation erreur; Prédiction; Normalité asymptotique; Modèle emboîté; Fonction répartition; Statistique test; Méthode statistique; Optimisation; Méthode optimisation; Critère sélection; Méthode Monte Carlo; Test statistique; Estimation statistique; Analyse donnée; Donnée économique; 62F07; 62P20; 60G25; 62M20; 62E20; Loi asymptotique; 62F05; 60E05; 49XX; 65Kxx; 62E17; 65C05; Estimation paramétrique; Méthode sélection; Enchère ED : Parametric method; Rank statistic; Selection problem; Economic sciences; Stochastic process; Prediction theory; Filtering theory; Statistical distribution; Asymptotic behavior; Numerical analysis; Mathematical programming; Approximation theory; Stochastic method; Simulation; Structural model; Econometric model; Econometrics; Model selection; Mean error; Mean estimation; Error estimation; Prediction; Asymptotic normality; Nested model; Distribution function; Test statistic; Statistical method; Optimization; Optimization method; Selection criterion; Monte Carlo method; Statistical test; Statistical estimation; Data analysis; Economic data; Selection method; Auction SD : Método paramétrico; Estadística rango; Problema selección; Ciencias económicas; Proceso estocástico; Distribución estadística; Comportamiento asintótico; Análisis numérico; Programación matemática; Método estocástico; Simulación; Modelo estructura; Modelo econométrico; Econometría; Selección modelo; Error medio; Estimación promedio; Estimación error; Predicción; Normalidad asintótica; Modelo encajado; Función distribución; Estadística test; Método estadístico; Optimización; Método optimización; Criterio selección; Método Monte Carlo; Test estadístico; Estimación estadística; Análisis datos; Dato económico LO : INIST-16460.354000185500210020 316/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0128611 INIST ET : Transportation Benefit-Cost Analysis : Lessons from Cal-B/C AU : WILLIGES (Chris); MAHDAVI (Mahmoud) AF : System Metrics Group, Inc., 244 California Street, Suite 607/San Francisco, CA 94111/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); California Department of Transportation, Office of Transportation Economics, Division of Transportation Planning, MS-32, 1120 N Street/Sacramento, CA 95814/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2079; Pp. 79-87; Bibl. 14 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) assesses more than 100 transportation projects annually for its State Transportation Improvement Program, one of the largest such programs in the country. Caltrans relies on benefit-cost analysis as one of several performance factors, and evaluations must be completed in a few weeks. Caltrans developed a spreadsheet model, Cal-B/C, to provide a common benefit-cost framework and facilitate rapid project evaluation. The model is based on extensive theoretical reviews but is intended to keep the analysis simple. Cal-B/C incorporates rules of thumb to accommodate projects with little upfront evaluation. It can also use summary data from microsimulation and travel demand models. Although this design supports analysis with minimal data, Caltrans has found that the need for accurate and consistent data complicates project evaluation. This paper presents an example of how California applies benefit-cost analysis for objective project appraisals. The paper describes the motivation for Cal-B/C, its structure, applications, and continued evolution. Particular attention is paid to a recent evaluation of projects proposed for a $4.5 billion infrastructure bond measure. The paper also offers lessons for applied transportation performance analysis and proposes areas for further research. CC : 001D15B FD : Economie transport; Analyse avantage coût; Retour expérience; Californie; Modélisation; Coût global; Exemple; Planification FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Economy of transports; Cost benefit analysis; Experience feedback; California; Modeling; Life cycle cost; Example; Planning EG : United States; North America; America SD : Economía transporte; Análisis coste beneficio; Retorno experiencia; California; Modelización; Costo global; Ejemplo; Planificación LO : INIST-10459B.354000185156440110 317/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0113769 INIST ET : Joint Model of Choice of Residential Neighborhood and Bicycle Ownership : Accounting for Self-Selection and Unobserved Heterogeneity AU : RAWOOF PINJARI (Abdul); ELURU (Naveen); BHAT (Chandra R.); PENDYALA (Ram M.); SPISSU (Erika) AF : Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1761/Austin, TX 78712-0278/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 5 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Arizona State University, Room ECG252/Tempe, AZ 85287-5306/Etats-Unis (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2082; Pp. 17-26; Bibl. 30 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper presents a joint model of residential neighborhood type choice and bicycle ownership. The objective is to isolate the true causal effects of neighborhood attributes on household bicycle ownership from a spurious association because of residential self-selection effects. The joint model accounts for residential self-selection because of both observed sociodemographic characteristics and unobserved preferences. In addition, the model allows differential residential self-selection effects across different sociodemographic segments. The model was estimated by using a sample of more than 5,000 households from the San Francisco, California, Bay Area. Furthermore, a policy simulation analysis was carried out to estimate the impacts of neighborhood characteristics and sociodemographics on bicycle ownership. The model results show a substantial presence of residential self-selection effects because of observed socio-demographics, such as the number of children, dwelling type, and house ownership. It is shown for the first time in the self-selection literature that ignoring such observed self-selection effects may not always lead to overestimation of the impact of neighborhood attributes on travel-related choices, such as bicycle ownership. In the current context, ignoring self-selection because of sociodemographic attributes resulted in an underestimation of the impact of neighborhood attributes on bicycle ownership. In the context of unobserved factors, no significant self-selection effects were found. However, it is recommended that such effects as well as the heterogeneity in such effects be tested for before it is concluded that there are no unobserved factors contributing to residential self-selection. CC : 001D15A; 001D15C FD : Transports; Analyse comportementale; Choix modal; Bicyclette; Zone résidentielle; Hétérogénéité; Analyse donnée; Californie; Modélisation; Modèle économétrique; Simulation; Politique FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Behavioral analysis; Modal choice; Bicycle; Residential zone; Heterogeneity; Data analysis; California; Modeling; Econometric model; Simulation; Policy EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transportes; Análisis conductual; Elección modal; Bicicleta; Zona residencial; Heterogeneidad; Análisis datos; California; Modelización; Modelo econométrico; Simulación; Política LO : INIST-10459B.354000184135500030 318/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0111953 INIST ET : &dquot;Conditional scholarships&dquot; for HIV/AIDS health workers : Educating and retaining the workforce to provide antiretroviral treatment in sub-Saharan Africa AU : BÄRNIGHAUSEN (Till); BLOOM (David E.) AF : University of KwaZulu-Natal, Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, P.O. Box 198/Mtubatuba, KwaZulu-Natal 3935/Afrique du Sud (1 aut.); Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health/MA/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Social science & medicine : (1982); ISSN 0277-9536; Coden SSMDEP; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 68; No. 3; Pp. 544-551; Bibl. 1 p. LA : Anglais EA : Without large increases in the number of health workers to treat HIV/AIDS (HAHW) many countries in sub-Saharan Africa will be unable to achieve universal coverage with antiretroviral treatment (ART), leading to large numbers of avoidable deaths among people living with HIV/AIDS. We conduct a cost-benefit analysis of a health care education scholarship that is conditional on the recipient committing to work for several years after graduation delivering ART in sub-Saharan Africa. Such a scholarship could address two of the main reasons for the low numbers of health workers in sub-Saharan Africa: low education rates and high emigration rates. We use Markov Monte Carlo microsimulation to estimate the expected net present value (eNPV) of &dquot;conditional scholarships&dquot; in sub-Saharan Africa. The scholarships are highly eNPV-positive under a wide range of assumptions. Conditional scholarships for a HAHW team sufficient to provide ART for 500 patients have an eNPV of 1.24 million year-2000 US dollars, assuming that the scholarship recipients are in addition to the health workers who would have been educated without scholarships and that the scholarships reduce annual HAHW emigration probabilities from 15% to 5% for five years. The eNPV of the education effect of the scholarships is larger than eNPV of the migration effect. Policy makers should consider implementing &dquot;conditional scholarships&dquot; for HAHW, especially in countries where health worker education capacity is currently underutilized or can be rapidly expanded. CC : 002B30A11; 002B05C02D; 002B30A05 FD : SIDA; Agent santé; Personnel sanitaire; Pharmacothérapie; Chimiothérapie; Antirétroviral; Afrique subsaharienne; Ressources humaines; Virus immunodéficience humaine; Antiviral; Analyse avantage coût; Economie santé; Modèle Markov; Santé publique; Médecine sociale; Homme FG : Virose; Infection; Traitement; Afrique; Lentivirus; Retroviridae; Virus; Immunodéficit; Immunopathologie ED : AIDS; Health worker; Health staff; Pharmacotherapy; Chemotherapy; Antiretroviral agent; Sub-Saharan Africa; Human capital; Human immunodeficiency virus; Antiviral; Cost benefit analysis; Health economy; Markov model; Public health; Social medicine; Human EG : Viral disease; Infection; Treatment; Africa; Lentivirus; Retroviridae; Virus; Immune deficiency; Immunopathology SD : SIDA; Personal sanitario; Farmacoterapia; Quimioterapia; Antiretroviral; Africa subsahariana; Capital humano; Human immunodeficiency virus; Antiviral; Análisis coste beneficio; Economía salud; Modelo Markov; Salud pública; Medicina social; Hombre LO : INIST-13689.354000184216520200 319/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0104624 INIST FT : RISQUE À LONG TERME DE SURVENUE D'UNE FRACTURE OSTÉOPOROTIQUE EN BELGIQUE ET : (LONG-TERM RISK OF OSTEOPOROTIC FRACTURE IN BELGIUM) AU : HILIGSMANN (M.); BRUYERE (O.); REGINSTER (J. Y.) AF : Département d'Economie, HEC-ULg, Université de Liège/Belgique (1 aut.); Département de Santé Publique, d'Epidémiologie et d'Economie de la Santé, Faculté de Médecine, Université de Liège/Belgique (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : RMLG. Revue médicale de Liège; ISSN 0370-629X; Belgique; Da. 2008; Vol. 63; No. 7-8; Pp. 480-487; Abs. anglais; Bibl. 46 ref. LA : Français FA : Ce travail a été réalisé afin d'estimer le risque à long terme de survenue de fractures ostéoporotiques pour des hommes et des femmes belges âgés de 50 et 60 ans. Les estimations ont été réalisées au moyen d'un modèle de microsimulation de Markov. Elles se basent sur l'incidence de fractures ainsi que sur l'espérance de vie. Plusieurs approches ont été utilisées pour modéliser l'espérance de vie. Nos analyses ont notamment intégré des réductions futures de la mortalité sur base de projections officielles ainsi que des modifications à long terme de l'incidence de fractures. Le risque de survenue de fractures pour la population ostéoporotique (dont le t-score de densité osseuse est inférieur à -2,5) a également été estimé. Les risques à long terme de survenue d'une fracture de hanche et d'une fracture ostéoporotique à un des trois sites de références (hanche, vertèbre, avant-bras) pour une femme de 60 ans sont respectivement de 20,5 % et de 39 %. Pour les hommes, ces risques s'élèvent à 7,9 % et 14,8 % tandis que pour les femmes ostéoporotiques, ils sont de 32,3 % et de 53,4 %. Les estimations obtenues confirment que l'ostéoporose est un problème de santé public majeur. CC : 002B01; 002B15A FD : Fracture; Risque; Long terme; Ostéoporose; Belgique; Facteur risque; Espérance de vie FG : Europe; Pathologie du système ostéoarticulaire; Traumatisme ED : Fracture; Risk; Long term; Osteoporosis; Belgium; Risk factor; Life expectancy EG : Europe; Diseases of the osteoarticular system; Trauma SD : Fractura; Riesgo; Largo plazo; Osteoporosis; Belgica; Factor riesgo; Esperanza de vida LO : INIST-3464.354000196315640050 320/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0103239 INIST ET : Tracking Size, Location, and Interactions of Businesses : Microsimulation of Firm Behavior in Austin, Texas AU : KUMAR (Saurabh); KOCKELMAN (Kara M.) AF : Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas, 6.9 E. Cockrell Jr. Hall/Austin, TX 78712-1076/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2077; Pp. 113-121; Bibl. 46 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Firms are key drivers of urban growth along with households, yet data on businesses and commercial vehicle movements can be difficult to obtain. An understanding of firm behavior over time is critical in anticipating urban futures and addressing transportation, land use, and other concerns. Firm birth and death, migration, and location choice are defining events in a firm's life cycle, and a study of firm evolution requires estimating and applying models for each. Such an exercise is hindered primarily by a lack of quality microdata for businesses. A basic framework is proposed for modeling firm demographics by using a microsimulation approach. Year 2005 employment point data for the Austin, Texas, region and 7 years of aggregate data from the Statistics of U.S. Businesses have been used to simulate firm entry, exit, and evolution over time and space. A Markov process is used to anticipate firm growth and contraction, along with logit and Poisson models for firm location choice. Austin's commercial vehicle survey data are used to estimate commercial trip generation and distribution models, and applications of these are tied to forecasts of firm counts by location over time. Simulation results for both low- and high-growth scenarios suggest an increasing movement of firms toward central zones. CC : 001D15A; 001D14A06; 295 FD : Transports; Croissance urbaine; Modèle simulation; Stratégie entreprise; Texas; Analyse donnée; Modélisation; Problème localisation; Modèle logit; Scénario FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Urban growth; Simulation model; Firm strategy; Texas; Data analysis; Modeling; Location problem; Logit model; Script EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transportes; Crecimiento urbano; Modelo simulación; Estrategia empresa; Texas; Análisis datos; Modelización; Problema localización; Modelo logit; Argumento LO : INIST-10459B.354000184135680150 321/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0103238 INIST ET : Microsimulation of Residential Land Development and Household Location Choices : Bidding for Land in Austin, Texas AU : BIN ZHOU; KOCKELMAN (Kara M.) AF : Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas/Austin, TX 78712-1076/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2077; Pp. 106-112; Bibl. 36 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Microeconomic theory and disaggregate spatial data are applied to pursue market equilibrium of single-family residential development. Mixed logit models and notions of price competition are used to simulate household location choices for three different household segments, assuming job sites of household members are known. Consistent with bid-rent theory, housing market equilibrium was reached in an iterative fashion. The spatial allocation of new households in the Austin, Texas, region illustrates the potential shape of things to come, with endogenously determined home prices and demographic distributions, based on job access. As expected, positive spatial autocorrelation in home prices and household distributions is observed. CC : 001D15B; 001D14A06; 295 FD : Demande transport; Transport urbain; Modèle simulation; Occupation sol; Choix site; Logement habitation; Texas; Enquête; Etude marché FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transport demand; Urban transportation; Simulation model; Land use; Site selection; Housing; Texas; Survey; Market survey EG : United States; North America; America SD : Demanda transporte; Transporte urbano; Modelo simulación; Ocupación terreno; Elección sitio; Habitación; Texas; Encuesta; Estudio mercado LO : INIST-10459B.354000184135680140 322/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0102684 INIST ET : Modeling Daily Activity-Travel Tour Patterns Incorporating Activity Scheduling Decision Rules AU : YAGI (Sadayuki); MOHAMMADIAN (Abolfazl) AF : Pacific Consultants International, 7-5, Sekido 1-chome/Tama-shi, Tokyo 206-8550/Japon (1 aut.); Department of Civil and Materials Engineering, University of Illinois at Chicago, 842 West Taylor Street/Chicago, IL 60607-7023/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2076; Pp. 123-131; Bibl. 19 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The study develops a unique and practical model that can simulate daily patterns of activity travel for all household members including children and homemakers as well as workers and students. The activity-travel pattern model primarily adopts a tour-based structure in which tour is used as the base unit of modeling to preserve consistency in destination, mode, and time-of-day choices across trips. The unique feature of the model over other tour-based models in the literature is the incorporation of behavioral rules in the microsimulation process. These rules are derived from observed probabilities of activity scheduling behavior and are used to govern and modify generated activities by controlling for activity rescheduling, joint activity-tour generation, and household maintenance tour restriction. Data from a 4-day activity diary survey of nearly 4,000 individuals were used to develop models of weekday daily activity-travel patterns in the Jakarta, Indonesia, metropolitan area. Activity-travel patterns are defined by primary activity, primary tour type, and number and type of secondary tours. The model has a two-tier nested logit structure, with a choice of whether to go out of home to travel or stay at home all day in the upper tier and a choice of daily activity-travel pattern alternatives in the lower tier under the out-of-home choice. In addition to logsum from the time-of-day choice model, a variety of explanatory variables are included in the model. The effects of the explanatory variables are quite different from the effects of those models developed for the United States. CC : 001D15A; 001D15B FD : Transports; Activité; Voyage; Ordonnancement; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Politique transport; Scénario; Etude cas; Indonésie; Zone urbaine; Décision FG : Asie ED : Transportation; Activity; Travel; Scheduling; Modeling; Simulation model; Transportation policy; Script; Case study; Indonesia; Urban area; Decision EG : Asia SD : Transportes; Actividad; Viaje; Reglamento; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Política transporte; Argumento; Estudio caso; Indonesia; Zona urbana; Decisión LO : INIST-10459B.354000184073700140 323/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0102671 INIST ET : Social Context of Activity Scheduling : Discrete-Continuous Model of Relationship Between &dquot;with Whom&dquot; and Episode Start Time and Duration AU : HABIB (Khandker M. N.); CARRASCO (Juan Antonio); MILLER (Eric J.) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, 3-133 Markin/CNRL Natural Resources Engineering Facility/Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2W2/Canada (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Concepción, P.O. Box 160-C/Concepción/Chili (2 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street/Toronto ON M5S 1A4/Canada (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2076; Pp. 81-87; Bibl. 33 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Activity-based approaches to travel demand modeling are increasingly moving from theoretical to operational models. Agent-based microsimulation models are a promising approach as they explicitly conceive travel as an emergent phenomenon from people's activity characteristics and, more explicitly, from their activity-scheduling processes. Activity-scheduling processes are influenced by individuals' characteristics as well as by the people with whom they interact. Thus, the activity-scheduling process has an intrinsic social context. With social activities used as a case study, the objective of this paper is to investigate empirically the relationship between social context (measured by with whom respondents interacted) and two key aspects of activity scheduling: start time and duration. Econometric models of the combined decisions of with whom to participate and when to start or how much time to spend are estimated to investigate the correlations between &dquot;with whom&dquot; and start time and duration decisions. Data collected by a 7-day activity diary survey were used for model development. Findings suggest that social context has a relevant role in activity-scheduling processes. For example, with whom people socialize influences social activity-scheduling processes more than do travel time or distances to social travel. In addition to theoretical understanding of the questions investigated here, the models serve as an empirical support for agent-based microsimulation models that could incorporate the role of social networks in activity-scheduling attributes. CC : 001D15B FD : Politique transport; Modélisation; Ordonnancement; Aspect social; Activité; Comportement; Analyse donnée; Etude méthode ED : Transportation policy; Modeling; Scheduling; Social aspect; Activity; Behavior; Data analysis; Method study SD : Política transporte; Modelización; Reglamento; Aspecto social; Actividad; Conducta; Análisis datos; Estudio método LO : INIST-10459B.354000184073700090 324/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0102668 INIST ET : Joint Models of Home-Based Tour Mode and Destination Choices : Applications to a Developing Country AU : YAGI (Sadayuki); MOHAMMADIAN (Abolfazl) AF : Pacific Consultants International, 7-5, Sekido 1-chome/Tama-shi, Tokyo 206-B550/Japon (1 aut.); Department of Civil and Materials Engineering, University of Illinois at Chicago, 842 West Taylor Street/Chicago, IL 60607-7023/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2076; Pp. 29-40; Bibl. 14 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper presents joint models of mode and destination choices for home-based tours within an activity-based modeling framework for Jakarta, Indonesia, one of the largest metropolitan areas in Asia. Nested logit models were developed separately with four different activity types: work, school, maintenance, and discretionary. Mode and destination choices of all household members were specifically modeled, including children, who were usually overlooked in previous studies. Different models were estimated for school and work tours, usually combined in previous studies. Eight of the most commonly used combinations of travel modes in the region were considered: drive alone, shared ride, motorcycle, taxi, motorcycle taxi, transit with motorized access, transit with nonmotorized access, and nonmotorized transportation. Eleven representative tour destinations were sampled by a stratified importance sampling method designed on the basis of distance and size variables. Size variables were defined for different activity types to reflect the magnitude of attraction of destination zones for that activity. These variables include total number of jobs, students, or households in each zone. A wide variety of different types of variables contributed significantly to the models, including those related to trips, activities and tours, households, individuals, destination zones, and a composite variable of generalized travel time. The modeling results suggest that choice alternatives, structure of the model, and key variables differ from those in the developed world. This study is part of a larger effort to develop a comprehensive activity-based microsimulation modeling system for developing countries. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Modélisation; Pays en développement; Choix modal; Application; Indonésie; Activité; Modèle mathématique FG : Asie ED : Transportation; Modeling; Developing countries; Modal choice; Application; Indonesia; Activity; Mathematical model EG : Asia SD : Transportes; Modelización; Países en desarrollo; Elección modal; Aplicación; Indonesia; Actividad; Modelo matemático LO : INIST-10459B.354000184073700040 325/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0093930 INIST ET : Distributional effects of road pricing : Assessment of nine scenarios for Paris AU : BUREAU (Benjamin); GLACHANT (Matthieu) AF : Ecole des Mines tie Paris, CERNA, 60 Boulevard Saint Michel/75272 Paris/France (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice; ISSN 0965-8564; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2008; Vol. 42; No. 7; Pp. 994-1007; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : The starting point of this paper is to consider that there is no general answer to the question of the equity of urban road pricing. We therefore simulate and compare the distributional effects on commuters of nine toll scenarios for Paris, assuming that utility is nonlinear in income. We show that the distributional pattern across income groups depends crucially on the level of traffic reduction induced by tolling. Stringent tolls are more favourable to low-income motorists. Equity effects also vary with toll design. Compared to a reference scenario which uniformly charges all motorists driving within Paris, an inbound cordon toll is detrimental to low-incomes. Conversely, granting a rebate to low CO2 emission cars slightly improves their situation while an exemption for Paris residents is neutral. Surprisingly, it matters little for social equity whether toll revenues are allocated to all commuters or solely to public transport users. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Fixation prix; Réseau routier; Revenu économique; Equité; Evaluation; Scénario; Paris; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Choix modal; Statistique descriptive; Modèle économétrique FG : Ile de France; France; Europe ED : Road traffic; Pricing; Road network; Income; Equity; Evaluation; Script; Paris; Modeling; Simulation model; Modal choice; Descriptive statistics; Econometric model EG : Ile-de-France; France; Europe SD : Tráfico carretera; Fijación precios; Red carretera; Renta; Equidad; Evaluación; Argumento; París; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Elección modal; Estadística descriptiva; Modelo econométrico LO : INIST-12377A.354000197704610030 326/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0088645 INIST ET : Predicting land cover change and avian community responses in rapidly urbanizing environments AU : HEPINSTALL (Jeffrey A.); ALBERTI (Marina); MARZLUFF (John M.); BREUSTE (Jürgen); NIEMALÄ (Jari); SNEP (Robbert P. H.) AF : Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, 180 Green St/Athens, GA 30602-2152/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Urban Design and Planning and Urban Ecology Research Laboratory, University of Washington, P.O. Box 355740/Seattle, WA 98195-5740/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, P. O. Box 352100/Seattle, WA 98195-2100/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Urban and Landscape Ecology, Department of Geography and Geology, University of Salzburg, Hellbrunnerstrasse 34/5020, Salzburg/Autriche (1 aut.); Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65/00014 Helsinki/Finlande (2 aut.); alterra, Wageningen UR, P.O. Box 47/6700 AA Wageningen/Pays-Bas (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Landscape ecology; ISSN 0921-2973; Pays-Bas; Da. 2008; Vol. 23; No. 10; Pp. 1257-1276; Bibl. 2 p.3/4 LA : Anglais EA : We used an integrated modeling approach to simulate future land cover and predict the effects of future urban development and land cover on avian diversity in the Central Puget Sound region of Washington State, USA. We parameterized and applied a land cover change model (LCCM) that used output from a microsimulation model of urban development, UrbanSim, and biophysical site and landscape characteristics to simulate land cover 28 years into the future. We used 1991, 1995, and 1999 Landsat TM-derived land cover data and three different spatial partitions of our study area to develop six different estimations of the LCCM. We validated model simulations with 2002 land cover. We combined UrbanSim land use outputs and LCCM simulations to predict changes in avian species richness. Results indicate that landscape composition and configuration were important in explaining land cover change as well as avian species response to landscape change. Over the next 28 years, urban land cover was predicted to increase at the expense of agriculture and deciduous and mixed lowland forests. Land cover changes were predicted to reduce the total number of avian species, with losses primarily in native forest specialists and gains in common synanthropic species such as the American Crow (Corvus brachyrhynchos). The integrated modeling framework we present has potential applications in urban and natural resource planning and management and in assessing of the effects of policies on land development, land cover, and avian biodiversity. CC : 002A14D01; 002A15D FD : Couvert végétal; Occupation sol; Communauté animale; Aves; Environnement; Modélisation; Diversité biologique; Développement urbain; Ecologie paysage; Puget Sound FG : Vertebrata ED : Plant cover; Land use; Animal community; Aves; Environment; Modeling; Biodiversity; Urban development; Puget Sound EG : Vertebrata SD : Cubierta vegetal; Ocupación terreno; Comunidad animal; Aves; Medio ambiente; Modelización; Diversidad biológica; Desarrollo urbano LO : INIST-26279.354000184707900090 327/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0079184 INIST ET : At what costs will screening with CT colonography be competitive? A cost-effectiveness approach AU : LANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris); VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein); ZAUBER (Ann G.); BOER (Rob); WILSCHUT (Janneke); HABBEMA (J. Dik F.) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut.); Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center/New York, NY/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : International journal of cancer; ISSN 0020-7136; Coden IJCNAW; Etats-Unis; Da. 2009; Vol. 124; No. 5; Pp. 1161-1168; Bibl. 72 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The costs of computed tomographic colonography (CTC) are not yet established for screening use. In our study, we estimated the threshold costs for which CTC screening would be a cost-effective alternative to colonoscopy for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in the general population. We used the MISCAN-colon microsimulation model to estimate the costs and life-years gained of screening persons aged 50-80 years for 4 screening strategies: (i) optical colonoscopy; and CTC with referral to optical colonoscopy of (ii) any suspected polyp; (iii) a suspected polyp ≥6 mm and (iv) a suspected polyp >10 mm. For each of the 4 strategies, screen intervals of 5, 10, 15 and 20 years were considered. Subsequently, for each CTC strategy and interval, the threshold costs of CTC were calculated. We performed a sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of uncertain model parameters on the threshold costs. With equal costs ($662), optical colonoscopy dominated CTC screening. For CTC to gain similar life-years as colonoscopy screening every 10 years, it should be offered every 5 years with referral of polyps >6 mm. For this strategy to be as cost-effective as colonoscopy screening, the costs must not exceed $285 or 43% of colonoscopy costs (range in sensitivity analysis: 39-47%). With 25% higher adherence than colonoscopy, CTC threshold costs could be 71% of colonoscopy costs. Our estimate of 43% is considerably lower than previous estimates in literature, because previous studies only compared CTC screening to 10-yearly colonoscopy, where we compared to different intervals of colonoscopy screening. CC : 002B04; 002B13B01 FD : Cancer colorectal; Coût; Economie santé; Aspect économique; Dépistage; Compétition; Analyse coût efficacité; Simulation ordinateur; Cancérologie; Homme; Coloscopie virtuelle FG : Pathologie de l'appareil digestif; Pathologie du côlon; Pathologie de l'intestin; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Pathologie du rectum; Santé publique ED : Colorectal cancer; Costs; Health economy; Economic aspect; Medical screening; Competition; Cost efficiency analysis; Computer simulation; Cancerology; Human; Virtual colonoscopy EG : Digestive diseases; Colonic disease; Intestinal disease; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Rectal disease; Public health SD : Cancer de colon y recto; Coste; Economía salud; Aspecto económico; Descubrimiento; Competencia; Análisis costo eficacia; Simulación computadora; Cancerología; Hombre LO : INIST-13027.354000185156100190 328/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0065774 INIST ET : Lifetime absolute risk of hip and other osteoporotic fracture in Belgian women AU : HILIGSMANN (Mickaël); BRUYERE (Olivier); ETHGEN (Olivier); GATHON (Henry-Jean); REGINSTER (Jean-Yves) AF : Department of Economics, University of Liège/Belgique (1 aut., 4 aut.); Department of Public Health, Epidemiology and Health Economics, University of Liège/Liège/Belgique (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Bone : (New York, NY); ISSN 8756-3282; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; Vol. 43; No. 6; Pp. 991-994; Bibl. 43 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Objectives: To estimate the lifetime absolute risks of hip and other osteoporotic fracture in Belgian women aged 60 years and to examine the effect of changes in baseline population fracture risk and changes in life expectancy. Materials and methods: Estimates were performed using a Markov microsimulation model and were based on the incidence of first fracture as well as life expectancy. Baseline scenario included projected mortality rates and increasing fracture incidence by 1% per year. Alternative scenarios were performed on age, life expectancy and trends in fracture incidence. Lifetime fracture risk for osteoporotic population [T-score≤-2.5) was also estimated. Results: In the baseline scenario, lifetime absolute risks of hip fracture and of any major osteoporotic fracture (hip, clinical vertebral or wrist) were respectively 24.8% and 44.3%. Alternative scenarios showed that when assuming no change of age-specific fracture rates over time, these lifetime risks were 18.3% and 35.2%, while these values were 20.0% and 38.3% assuming no future mortality reductions. For osteoporotic women, these values were respectively 34.5% and 51.5%. Conclusion: We conclude that absolute lifetime fracture risks are substantial and that trends in fracture incidence and changes in life expectancy have a marked impact on absolute lifetime fracture risks. CC : 002A16; 002B15A; 002B16H FD : Ostéoporose; Durée vie; Facteur risque; Hanche; Fracture; Femme; Epidémiologie; Mortalité; Morphologie; Orthopédie; Pronostic FG : Homme; Pathologie du système ostéoarticulaire; Traumatisme ED : Osteoporosis; Lifetime; Risk factor; Hip; Fracture; Woman; Epidemiology; Mortality; Morphology; Orthopedics; Prognosis EG : Human; Diseases of the osteoarticular system; Trauma SD : Osteoporosis; Tiempo vida; Factor riesgo; Cadera; Fractura; Mujer; Epidemiología; Mortalidad; Morfología; Ortopedia; Pronóstico LO : INIST-19041.354000185115360030 329/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0040277 INIST ET : Estimating quadratic variation consistently in the presence of endogenous and diurnal measurement error AU : KALNINA (Iize); LINTON (Oliver); GAO (Jiti); MCALEER (Michael); ALLEN (David E.) AF : Department of Economics, London School of Economics, Houghton Street/London WC2A 2AE/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut.); School of Economics, The University of Adelaide/Adelaide SA 5005/Australie (1 aut.); School of Economics and Commerce, The University of Western Australia/Crawley WA 6009/Australie (2 aut.); School of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Edith Cowan University/Joondalup WA 6027/Australie (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2008; Vol. 147; No. 1; Pp. 47-59; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : We propose an econometric model that captures the effects of market microstructure on a latent price process. In particular, we allow for correlation between the measurement error and the return process and we allow the measurement error process to have a diurnal heteroskedasticity. We propose a modification of the TSRV estimator of quadratic variation. We show that this estimator is consistent, with a rate of convergence that depends on the size of the measurement error, but is no worse than n-1/6. We investigate in simulation experiments the finite sample performance of various proposed implementations. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02H02I; 001A02I01B FD : Sciences économiques; Analyse multivariable; Association statistique; Analyse numérique; Accélération convergence; Estimation statistique; Erreur mesure; Estimation erreur; Modèle économétrique; Econométrie; Prix marché; Corrélation; Analyse corrélation; Estimateur convergent; Taux convergence; Convergence; Simulation; Implémentation; Méthode statistique; Analyse donnée; Donnée économique; Variation quadratique; 62P20; 62H20; 65B99; Echantillon fini ED : Economic sciences; Multivariate analysis; Statistical association; Numerical analysis; Convergence acceleration; Statistical estimation; Measurement error; Error estimation; Econometric model; Econometrics; Market price; Correlation; Correlation analysis; Consistent estimator; Convergence rate; Convergence; Simulation; Implementation; Statistical method; Data analysis; Economic data; Finite sample SD : Ciencias económicas; Análisis multivariable; Asociación estadística; Análisis numérico; Aceleración convergencia; Estimación estadística; Error medida; Estimación error; Modelo econométrico; Econometría; Precio de mercado; Correlación; Análisis correlación; Estimador convergente; Relación convergencia; Convergencia; Simulación; Implementación; Método estadístico; Análisis datos; Dato económico LO : INIST-16460.354000184996660040 330/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0008696 INIST ET : Estimating 'Value at Risk' of crude oil price and its spillover effect using the GED-GARCH approach AU : YING FAN; ZHANG (Yue-Jun); TSAI (Hsien-Tang); WEI (Yi-Ming); FISHER-VANDEN (Karen) AF : Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences/Beijing, 100080/Chine (1 aut., 2 aut., 4 aut.); Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences/Beijing, 100080/Chine (2 aut.); College of Management, National Sun Yat-sen University/Kaohsiung 80424/Taïwan (3 aut.); Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Pennsylvania Sate University, 103 Armsby Building/University Park, PA 16802-5600/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy economics; ISSN 0140-9883; Coden EECODR; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2008; Vol. 30; No. 6; Pp. 3156-3171; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : Estimation has been carried out using GARCH-type models, based on the Generalized Error Distribution (GED), for both the extreme downside and upside Value-at-Risks (VaR) of returns in the WTI and Brent crude oil spot markets. Furthermore, according to a new concept of Granger causality in risk, a kernel-based test is proposed to detect extreme risk spillover effect between the two oil markets. Results of an empirical study indicate that the GED-GARCH-based VaR approach appears more effective than the well-recognized HSAF (i.e. historical simulation with ARMA forecasts). Moreover, this approach is also more realistic and comprehensive than the standard normal distribution-based VaR model that is commonly used. Results reveal that there is significant two-way risk spillover effect between WTI and Brent markets. Supplementary study indicates that at the 99% confidence level, when negative market news arises that brings about a slump in oil price return, historical information on risk in the WTI market helps to forecast the Brent market. Conversely, it is not the case when positive news occurs and returns rise. Historical information on risk in the two markets can facilitate forecasts of future extreme market risks for each other. These results are valuable for anyone who needs evaluation and forecasts of the risk situation in international crude oil markets. CC : 001D06A01C2B; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Economie pétrolière; Pétrole; Prix; Spillover; Analyse risque; Causalité; Modèle économétrique; Valeur exposée ED : Oil economy; Petroleum; Price; Spillover; Risk analysis; Causality; Econometric model; Value at risk SD : Economía petrolera; Petróleo; Precio; Rebose; Análisis riesgo; Causalidad; Modelo econométrico LO : INIST-18231.354000196067230260 331/793 NO : PASCAL 09-0005526 INIST ET : Evaluating Test Strategies for Colorectal Cancer Screening : A Decision Analysis for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force AU : ZAUBER (Ann G.); LANSDORP-VOGELAAR (Iris); KNUDSEN (Amy B.); WILSCHUT (Janneke); VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein); KUNTZ (Karen M.) AF : Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center/New York, New York/Etats-Unis; Erasmus Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas; Massachusetts General Hospital/Boston, Massachusetts/Etats-Unis; University of Minnesota/Minneapolis, Minnesota/Etats-Unis DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Annals of internal medicine; ISSN 0003-4819; Coden AIMEAS; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; Vol. 149; No. 9; Pp. 659-669; Bibl. 38 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force requested a decision analysis to inform their update of recommendations for colorectal cancer screening. Objective: To assess life-years gained and colonoscopy requirements for colorectal cancer screening strategies and identify a set of recommendable screening strategies. Design: Decision analysis using 2 colorectal cancer microsimulation models from the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network. Data Sources: Derived from the literature. Target Population: U.S. average-risk 40-year-old population. Perspective: Societal. Time Horizon: Lifetime. Interventions: Fecal occult blood tests (FOBTs), flexible sigmoidoscopy, or colonoscopy screening beginning at age 40, 50, or 60 years and stopping at age 75 or 85 years, with screening intervals of 1, 2, or 3 years for FOBT and 5, 10, or 20 years for sigmoidoscopy and colonoscopy. Outcome Measures: Number of life-years gained compared with no screening and number of colonoscopies and noncolonoscopy tests required. Results of Base-Case Analysis: Beginning screening at age 50 years was consistently better than at age 60. Decreasing the stop age from 85 to 75 years decreased life-years gained by 1% to 4%, whereas colonoscopy use decreased by 4% to 15%. Assuming equally high adherence, 4 strategies provided similar life-years gained: colonoscopy every 10 years, annual Hemoccult SENSA (Beckman Coulter, Fullerton, California) testing or fecal immunochemical testing, and sigmoidoscopy every 5 years with midinterval Hemoccult SENSA testing. Annual Hemoccult II and flexible sigmoidoscopy every 5 years alone were less effective. Results of Sensitivity Analysis: The results were most sensitive to beginning screening at age 40 years. Limitation: The stop age for screening was based only on chronologic age. Conclusion: The findings support colorectal cancer screening with the following: colonoscopy every 10 years, annual screening with a sensitive FOBT, or flexible sigmoidoscopy every 5 years with a midinterval sensitive FOBT from age 50 to 75 years. CC : 002B01; 002B13B01; 002B30A03 FD : Cancer colorectal; Stratégie; Dépistage; Analyse décision; Prévention; Etats-Unis; Médecine; Homme; Groupe de travail FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique; Pathologie de l'appareil digestif; Pathologie du côlon; Pathologie de l'intestin; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Pathologie du rectum ED : Colorectal cancer; Strategy; Medical screening; Decision analysis; Prevention; United States; Medicine; Human; Working group EG : North America; America; Digestive diseases; Colonic disease; Intestinal disease; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Rectal disease SD : Cancer de colon y recto; Estrategia; Descubrimiento; Análisis decisión; Prevención; Estados Unidos; Medicina; Hombre; Grupo de trabajo LO : INIST-2014.354000183961690060 332/793 NO : FRANCIS 09-0465222 INIST ET : Economic evaluation of cholinesterase inhibitor therapy for dementia: comparison of Alzheimer's disease and Dementia with Lewy bodies AU : GUSTAVSSON (Anders); VAN DER PUTT (Rohan); JÖNSSON (Linus); MCSHANE (Rupert) AF : I3 Innovus/Stockholm/Suède (1 aut., 3 aut.); Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire Mental Health NHS Trust/Oxford/Royaume-Uni (2 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : International journal of geriatric psychiatry; ISSN 0885-6230; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2009; Vol. 24; No. 10; Pp. 1072-1078; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : Objective To assess the cost effectiveness of cholinesterase inhibitor (ChEI) treatment in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB). Method We used 4-month open label follow-up data from routine memory clinic patients. There were 852 patients with AD and 112 with DLB. We applied three predictive models to estimate clinical and economic outcomes at five years, comparing AD and DLB patients with hypothetical untreated controls. Results The mean improvement in MMSE in 852 AD patients was 0.57 (SD 3.4) at 4 months, and in the subgroup with baseline MMSE of 10-20 (moderate) was 1.6 (SD 3.7). Overall, the 112 DLB patients improved by 1.4 (SD 3.7). DLB patients with an MMSE 10-20 improved by 3.1 (SD 4.5) points. These efficacy data were input into the SHTAC, microsimulation and Markov models and produced estimated costs per QALY gained (CQG) for all AD of £194,066, £67,904 and £123,935 respectively. In comparison, the CQGs for all DLB were £46,794, £2,706 and £35,922. For the moderate subgroups only the SHTAC and microsimulation models were applicable. These gave CQG estimates for moderate AD of £39,664 and cost saving respectively. For moderate DLB, both estimates were cost saving. Conclusion The cost per QALY gained of cholinesterase treatment of all patients with DLB (including those with MMSE outside the 10-20 range) is comparable to that of patients with moderate AD, and is probably cost saving. CC : 770E02 FD : Economie santé; Santé publique; Analyse coût; Anticholinestérasique; Pharmacothérapie; Démence d'Alzheimer; Etude comparative; Démence à corps de Lewy; Analyse économique; Efficacité traitement; Etude longitudinale; Santé mentale; Environnement social; Royaume-Uni; Personne âgée FG : Traitement; Europe; Homme; Pathologie de l'encéphale; Maladie dégénérative; Pathologie du système nerveux central; Pathologie du système nerveux ED : Health economy; Public health; Cost analysis; Anticholinesterase agent; Pharmacotherapy; Alzheimer disease; Comparative study; Lewy body dementia; Economic analysis; Treatment efficiency; Follow up study; Mental health; Social environment; United Kingdom; Elderly EG : Treatment; Europe; Human; Cerebral disorder; Degenerative disease; Central nervous system disease; Nervous system diseases SD : Economía salud; Salud pública; Análisis costo; Anticolinesterasa agente; Farmacoterapia; Demencia Alzheimer; Estudio comparativo; Demencia cuerpos Lewy; Análisis económico; Eficacia tratamiento; Estudio longitudinal; Salud mental; Contexto social; Reino Unido; Anciano LO : INIST-21188.354000188107710050 333/793 NO : FRANCIS 09-0225620 INIST FT : Le caractère régressif des taxes indirectes : les enseignements d'un modèle de microsimulation ET : (The Regressive Nature of Indirect Taxes : Lessons from a Micro-Simulation Model) AU : RUIZ (Nicolas); TRANNOY (Alain) AF : Idep, Vieille Charité, 2 rue de la Charité/13002, Marseille/France (1 aut.); EHESS, Greqam-ldep, Vieille Charité, 2 rue de la Charité/13002, Marseille/France (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Economie et statistique; ISSN 0336-1454; France; Da. 2008; No. 413; 21-46, 65-67, 69 [30 p.]; Abs. anglais/allemand/espagnol; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Français FA : La fiscalité indirecte française regroupe à la fois des taxes sur la valeur (TVA, taxe sur les conventions d'assurance, etc.) et, pour certains biens (alcools, tabacs, produits pétroliers, etc.), des droits portant sur les quantités consommées (ou droits d'accises) qui s'ajoutent à la TVA. Taxes et droits d'accises peuvent se ramener pour tous les biens à un taux unique implicite sur la valeur. La fiscalité indirecte pèse davantage sur les ménages modestes: ces ménages consacrent en effet une part beaucoup plus grande de leur budget aux biens soumis aux accises que les ménages aisés. Le premier décile acquitte ainsi 4,3 % de son revenu en ces taxes, le dernier décile simplement 1,3 %. La mesure de l'impact d'une réforme (prenant la forme d'une modification des taux ou des accises au moyen de leurs taux implicites) suppose de pouvoir disposer d'une modélisation des comportements des consommateurs vis-à-vis des produits soumis à ce type d'impôt. Pour cela, on estime pour ces biens des élasticités-prix et des élasticités-revenu ensuite intégrées à un modèle de micro-simulation. Ces élasticités dérivent de fonctions de demandes dont l'estimation utilise des indices de prix dits « personnalisés »qui tirent parti pour chaque grand poste des différences de structure de consommation entre les différents ménages, ceci afin de disposer d'une variabilité dans les indices de prix. Ce modèle permet de mesurer l'impact de deux mesures: la première espace les taux de TVA, la seconde augmente les accises en diminuant le taux de TVA, les deux réformes étant conçues à solde budgétaire constant. Chacune opère un transfert de charge fiscale d'ampleur limitée, favorable aux revenus modestes dans le cas de la première et à leur détriment pour la seconde. La relative similarité des profils de consommation moyenne par déciles de revenu et la forte hétérogénéité des profils de consommation au sein de chaque décile atténuent en effet l'impact de ces réformes en matière de redistribution. CC : 52146; 521 FD : Impôt indirect; France; Politique fiscale; Consommation ED : Indirect Tax; France; Fiscal Policy; Consumption LO : INIST-24228.354000184696360020 334/793 NO : FRANCIS 09-0121304 INIST FT : Le niveau de vie des retraités : Conséquences des réformes des retraites et influence des modes d'indexation ET : (The Living Standard of Retirees Effects of the Pension Reform and Impact of Indexation Methods) AU : CRENNER (Emmanuelle) AF : Insee/France (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Retraite et société : (Paris); ISSN 1167-4687; France; Da. 2009; No. 56; 41-69, 285, 291 [31 p.]; Abs. anglais; Bibl. 1 p. LA : Français FA : Les générations partant à la retraite dans les trente-cinq années à venir auront des histoires socio-économiques différentes des générations précédentes. Les femmes auront plus participé au marché du travail, les salaires perçus au cours de la carrière seront plus élevés, la durée des études sera plus longue. Mais ces générations auront aussi, sur le plan démographique, plus souvent connu des séparations. Surtout, elles sont concernées par d'importants changements en matière de calcul de la pension de retraite suite aux réformes de 1993 et de 2003. Cet article a pour objectif d'évaluer l'évolution du niveau de vie des retraités pour les générations à venir, et de mesurer comment celle-ci est affectée par les changements socio-économiques et législatifs. Pour cela, nous avons simulé l'évolution du niveau de vie des individus nés entre 1945 et 1962 grâce au modèle de microsimulation Destinie. Au fil des générations, le niveau de vie moyen des retraités au moment où ils liquident leur retraite devrait augmenter, mais de façon plus importante pour les hommes que pour les femmes. Plus tard, pendant les quinze premières années de la retraite, les écarts de niveau de vie entre les hommes et les femmes devraient augmenter pour toutes les générations: sous l'effet des événements démographiques, le niveau de vie des hommes augmente alors que celui des femmes stagne. Les réformes de 1993 et 2003 auront pour conséquence, dès la liquidation de la pension, des niveaux de vie pour les retraités plus faibles que si les réformes n'avaient pas eu lieu. Mais surtout cet écart augmente au fur et à mesure de la retraite. Les changements de mode d'indexation des pensions expliquent 70% de la perte de niveau de vie après quinze années de retraite par rapport à un scénario sans application des réformes. CC : 52133A; 52146A; 521 FD : Niveau de vie; Revenu; Personne âgée; Retraités; France; Réforme; Conséquence économique ED : Standard of Living; Income; Elderly person; Pensioners; France; Reform; Economic Consequence LO : INIST-27412.354000186915510020 335/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0522551 INIST ET : Stochastic optimization of traffic control and transit priority settings in VISSIM AU : STEVANOVIC (Jelka); STEVANOVIC (Aleksandar); MARTIN (Peter T.); BAUER (Thomas); PRASHKER (Joseph N.) AF : University of Utah, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 122 S. Central Campus Dr.. Rm. 104/Salt Lake City. UT 84112-0561/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); PTV America Inc., 1128 NE 2nd Street, Suite 204/Corrallis, OR 97330/Etats-Unis (4 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Technion Israel Institute of Technology/Israël (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part C, Emerging technologies; ISSN 0968-090X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2008; Vol. 16; No. 3; Pp. 332-349; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Genetic algorithms have been shown to be effective tools for optimizations of traffic signal timings. However, only one tool that combines Genetic Algorithms and traffic microsimulation has matured to a commercial deployment: Direct CORSIM optimization, a feature of TRANSYT-7F. This paper presents a genetic algorithm formulation that builds on the best of the recorded methods, by extending their capabilities. It optimizes four basic signal timing parameters and transit priority settings using VISSIM microsimulation as the evaluation environment. The program is the first optimization tool that optimizes traffic control transit priority settings on roads with both private and transit traffic. These settings are optimized either simultaneously with the basic signal timings or separately, thus improving overall traffic operations without changing existing basic signal timings. The optimization has been tested on two VISSIM models: a suburban network of 12 signalized intersections in Park City, UT, and an urban corridor with transit operations in Albany, NY. The results show that timing plans optimized by the genetic algorithm outperformed the timing plans from the field and SYNCHRO. Optimization of the transit priority settings shows that adjustment of these settings has significant impact on travelers delay on the corridors with mixed traffic and transit operations. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Optimisation; Régulation trafic; Priorité; Algorithme génétique; Feu signalisation; Timing; Méthode stochastique; Simulation numérique; Programmation; Evaluation système ED : Road traffic; Optimization; Traffic control; Priority; Genetic algorithm; Traffic lights; Timing; Stochastic method; Numerical simulation; Programming; System evaluation SD : Tráfico carretera; Optimización; Regulación tráfico; Prioridad; Algoritmo genético; Semáforo; Timing; Método estocástico; Simulación numérica; Programación; Evaluación sistema LO : INIST-12377C.354000197837380050 336/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0517901 INIST ET : Breast Cancer Screening Policies in Developing Countries : A Cost-effectiveness Analysis for India AU : LAMBERTS OKONKWO (Quirine); DRAISMA (Gerrit); DER KINDEREN (Arno); BROWN (Martin L.); DE KONING (Harry J.) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 5 aut.); Netherlands Institute for Health Sciences/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut.); National Institutes of Health, Division Cancer Control & Population Sciences, Health Services & Economics Branch/Bethesda, MD/Etats-Unis (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of the National Cancer Institute; ISSN 0027-8874; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; Vol. 100; No. 18; Pp. 1290-1300; Bibl. 48 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background India, the largest developing country, has a steadily rising incidence of breast cancer. Estimates and comparisons of the cost-effectiveness of feasible breast cancer screening policies in developing countries and identification of the determinants of cost and efficacy are needed. Methods A Microsimulation Screening Analysis model of breast cancer was calibrated to available data on breast cancer incidence, stage distribution, and mortality in India. The model was used to estimate the costs of screening for breast cancer in India, its effects on mortality, and its cost-effectiveness (ie, costs of screening per life-year gained or life saved). Screening using clinical breast examination (CBE) or mammography among different age groups and at various frequencies was analyzed. Costs were expressed in international dollars (lnt.$), the currency used by the World Health Organization, which has the same purchasing power in India as the US dollar has in the United States. To determine which factors influenced cost-effectiveness, sensitivity analyses were performed. Results The estimated mortality reduction was the greatest for programs targeting women between age 40 and 60 years. Using a 3% discount rate, a single CBE at age 50 had an estimated cost-effectiveness ratio of lnt.$793 per life year gained and a breast cancer mortality reduction of 2%. The cost-effectiveness ratio increased to Int.$1135 per life year gained for every-5-year CBE (age 40-60 years) and to lnt.$1341 for biennial CBE (age 40-60 years); the corresponding reductions in breast cancer mortality were 8.2% and 16.3%, respectively. CBE performed annually from ages 40 to 60 was predicted to be nearly as efficacious as biennial mammography screening for reducing breast cancer mortality while incurring only half the net costs. The main factors affecting cost-effectiveness were breast cancer incidence, stage distribution, and cost savings on prevented palliative care. Conclusion The estimated cost-effectiveness of CBE screening for breast cancer in India compares favorably with that of mammography in developed countries. However, in view of competing priorities and economic conditions, the introduction of screening in India represents a greater challenge than it has been in more developed countries. CC : 002B04; 002B20E02; 235 FD : Cancer du sein; Dépistage; Politique sanitaire; Pays en développement; Analyse coût efficacité; Inde; Cancérologie; Economie santé; Homme FG : Asie; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Pathologie de la glande mammaire; Pathologie du sein; Santé publique ED : Breast cancer; Medical screening; Health policy; Developing countries; Cost efficiency analysis; India; Cancerology; Health economy; Human EG : Asia; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Mammary gland diseases; Breast disease; Public health SD : Cáncer del pecho; Descubrimiento; Política sanitaria; Países en desarrollo; Análisis costo eficacia; India; Cancerología; Economía salud; Hombre LO : INIST-3364.354000184263620030 337/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0508344 INIST ET : An empirical study on the rebound effect considering capital costs AU : MIZOBUCHI (Kenichi) AF : Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, 2-1, Rokkodai, Nada/Kobe, Hyogo 657-8501/Japon (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy economics; ISSN 0140-9883; Coden EECODR; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2008; Vol. 30; No. 5; Pp. 2486-2516; Bibl. 1 p. LA : Anglais EA : Technological progress is one of the means of reducing energy usage and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, this reduction, in turn, leads to a reduction in the real cost of energy services per unit, which results in an increase in the demand for energy services. Therefore, a reduction in the anticipated CO2 emissions caused by a technological improvement might be partially offset in response to the cost reduction. Previous studies have referred to this effect as the &dquot;rebound effect.&dquot; A large amount of empirical evidence on the rebound effect exists; however, most of these studies assume an exogenous improvement in energy efficiency, and thus, capital costs that may decrease the magnitude of the rebound effect are not taken into account expressly. This paper extends the scope of the research conducted by Brannlund et al. [Brannlund, R., Ghalwash, T., Nordstrom, J., 2007. Increased energy efficiency and the rebound effect: effects on consumption and emissions. Energy Economics 29, 1-17] in terms of two aspects: (i) considering capital costs explicitly as additional capital costs and (ii) adapting an iterating procedure, and estimating the rebound effect, using Japanese household data. As a result of our empirical analysis, we conclude that the rebound is approximately 27%. However, we also find that ignoring additional capital costs leads to an increase in the rebound effect. In the case of Japanese households, the magnitude of the rebound effect increases to approximately 115%. Moreover, our simulation study shows that only a one-time iteration of Brannlund et al. [Brannlund, R., Ghalwash, T., Nordstrom, J., 2007. Increased energy efficiency and the rebound effect: effects on consumption and emissions. Energy Economics 29, 1-17] may lead to a biased result. CC : 001D06A01B; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Conservation énergie; Economies d'énergie; Emission polluant; Dioxyde de carbone; Rebond; Coût capital; Secteur domestique; Estimation Bayes; Demande; Service; Modèle économétrique ED : Energy conservation; Energy savings; Pollutant emission; Carbon dioxide; Rebound; Capital cost; Residential sector; Bayes estimation; Demand; Service; Econometric model SD : Conservación energética; Ahorros energía; Emisión contaminante; Carbono dióxido; Rebote; Coste capital; Sector doméstico; Estimación Bayes; Petición; Servicio; Modelo econométrico LO : INIST-18231.354000196326380250 338/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0504666 INIST ET : Two-Phase Model of Ramp Closure for Incident Management AU : BOYLES (Stephen); KAROONSOONTAWONG (Ampol); FAJARDO (David); WALLER (S. Travis) AF : Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1761/Austin, TX 78712/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.); School of Transportation Engineering, Suranaree University of Technology, 111 University Avenue/Muang District, Nakhon Ratchasima, 30000/Thaïlande (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2047; Pp. 83-90; Bibl. 19 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Temporary on-ramp closure has been proposed as a strategy to reduce the impact of severe incidents on freeway facilities; however, to date no rigorous procedure has been made available to provide guidance on how such a technique should best be used. In particular, one must decide which ramps to close and for how long. A two-phase approach is proposed to answer these questions. The first phase is macroscopic in nature and predicts how motorists will reroute in response to any ramp closure and recommends which ramps should be closed. The second phase uses microsimulation to study the vicinity of the incident in greater detail, more fully accounting for dynamic traffic phenomena and attempting to answer the question of how long these ramps should be closed. From a computational standpoint, the first phase is designed to run as quickly as possible to allow the ramp closure policy to be enacted as the second phase begins, since the results of the second phase are not needed until later. This procedure is demonstrated by using a fictitious incident in the El Paso region of Texas. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Autoroute; Fermeture; Incident; Gestion trafic; Ecoulement diphasique; Modélisation ED : Road traffic; Freeway; Closure; Mishap; Traffic management; Two phase flow; Modeling SD : Tráfico carretera; Autopista; Cerradura; Incidente; Gestión tráfico; Flujo difásico; Modelización LO : INIST-10459B.354000185643780100 339/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0504660 INIST ET : Simple Approach to Estimating Changes in Toll Plaza Delays AU : OZMEN-ERTEKIN (Dilruba); OZBAY (Kaan); MUDIGONDA (Sandeep); COCHRAN (Anne M.) AF : Engineering Department, Hofstra University, 133 Hofstra University/Hempstead, NY 11549/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Rutgers University, 623 Bowser Road/Piscataway, NJ 08854/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 3 aut.); Urban Engineers, Inc., 530 Walnut Street/Philadelphia, PA 19103/Etats-Unis (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; No. 2047; Pp. 66-74; Bibl. 23 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Toll plazas are important components of the road infrastructure, especially on urban highways. They can have adverse capacity and safety impacts on traffic. However, the plazas serve an important purpose, namely, revenue generation for highway agencies. Various traffic management and electronic toll collection strategies, including regular and high-speed E-ZPass and time-of-day pricing, are also implemented as part of toll plaza operations to change traffic supply and demand characteristics and improve networkwide level of service. In recent years, because of the increasing need to better assess the impact of toll plazas combined with these various traffic management strategies, customized or off-the-shelf microsimulation and macrosimulation models of toll plazas have been developed. This study reviews the literature on both approaches. Then a customized microscopic toll plaza model developed as an integrated part of PARAMICS microsimulation is compared with a relatively simple macroscopic model. This kind of macroscopic model, which can estimate toll plaza delays, is needed because it is extremely difficult and expensive to calibrate and implement microsimulation models when projects have severe budget and time constraints. Several New Jersey Turnpike toll plazas that were well validated and calibrated are used in the comparison. A sensitivity analysis is conducted with various other toll plazas to ensure the validity of the macroscopic model, especially for cases in which demand is reduced because of a real-time traffic management strategy. Results indicate that the macroscopic method is comparable (within average error 2.6% to 6.4%) with the PARAMICS model when sufficient care is taken in selecting macroscopic and microscopic model parameters consistently. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Autoroute; Péage; Etude impact; Poste péage; Modélisation; Retard; Etude comparative; Analyse sensibilité; Modèle simulation; Recommandation; New Jersey FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Freeway; Toll; Impact study; Toll station; Modeling; Delay; Comparative study; Sensitivity analysis; Simulation model; Recommendation; New Jersey EG : United States; North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Autopista; Peaje; Estudio impacto; Puesto control peaje; Modelización; Retraso; Estudio comparativo; Análisis sensibilidad; Modelo simulación; Recomendación; New Jersey LO : INIST-10459B.354000185643780080 340/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0493802 INIST ET : Toward Roundabout Accessibility-Exploring the Operational Impact of Pedestrian Signalization Options at Modern Roundabouts AU : SCHROEDER (Bastian J.); ROUPHAIL (Nagui M.); HUGHES (Ronald G.) AF : Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State Univ., Centennial Campus, Box 8601/Raleigh, NC 27695-8601/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 3 aut.); VAMS Group & Commercial Vehicle and Safety, Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State Univ., Centennial Campus, Box 8601/Raleigh, NC 27695-8601/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; Vol. 134; No. 6; Pp. 262-271; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper explores the use of pedestrian signalization options for crosswalks at one- and two-lane roundabouts to enable these facilities to be accessible to pedestrians with vision impairments. Motivated by uncertainties about the safety of roundabouts for blind pedestrians, audible pedestrian signals hold promise for safely regulating the interaction of vehicles and pedestrians at these facilities. However, the use of pedestrian signals at roundabouts is controversial because of the potential for queue spillback into the circulating lane and delays to vehicular traffic. The objective of this work is to quantify pedestrian-induced delays and queuing impacts of a pedestrian signal placed at the busiest approach of a modern roundabout. The analysis is performed using a calibrated microsimulation model and includes assessment of innovative solutions for crossing geometry and phasing scheme at one-lane and two-lane roundabouts. The results suggest that the impact of pedestrian signals at roundabouts is greatest as vehicle volumes approach capacity, but that vehicle delay and queuing can be mitigated through innovative signal configurations. The findings are important in light of recent discourse concerning the accessibility of roundabouts to pedestrians with vision impairments that may ultimately move towards a requirement for signalization for certain facility types. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O02; 295 FD : Sécurité trafic; Carrefour giratoire; Accessibilité; Intersection; Feu signalisation; Trafic piéton; Modèle simulation; Etude comparative; Etalonnage; Implémentation; Evaluation performance; Analyse quantitative; Déficit acuité visuelle; Retard; File attente ED : Traffic safety; Roundabout; Accessibility; Intersection; Traffic lights; Pedestrian traffic; Simulation model; Comparative study; Calibration; Implementation; Performance evaluation; Quantitative analysis; Visual impairment; Delay; Queue SD : Seguridad tráfico; Bifurcación giratoria; Accesibilidad; Intersección; Semáforo; Tráfico peatones; Modelo simulación; Estudio comparativo; Contraste; Implementación; Evaluación prestación; Análisis cuantitativo; Deficiencia acuidad visual; Retraso; Fila espera LO : INIST-572E.354000196000800050 341/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0466168 INIST ET : Is econometrics useful for private policy making? A case study of replacement policy at an auto rental company AU : SUNGJIN CHO; RUST (John); SICKLES (Robin C.); WILLIAMS (Jennifer) AF : Seoul National University/Corée, République de (1 aut.); University of Maryland/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Rice University/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); University of Melbourne/Australie (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2008; Vol. 145; No. 1-2; Pp. 243-257; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : The goal of this paper is to illustrate the potential usefulness of econometrics as a tool to assist private policy makers. We provide a case study and detailed econometric analysis of the automobile replacement policy adopted by a large car rental company. Unlike public policy making - where the benefits from using econometric models and &dquot;science-based&dquot; approaches to policy making are hard to quantify because the outcomes of interest are typically subjective quantities such as &dquot;social welfare&dquot; - in the case of firms there is an objective, easily quantifiable criterion for judging whether policy A is better than policy B: profits. We introduce and estimate an econometric model of the rental histories of individual cars in the company's fleet. Via stochastic simulations, we show that the model provides a good approximation to the company's actual operations. In particular, the econometric model is able to reproduce the extraordinarily high rates of return that the company obtains on its rental cars, with average internal rates of return between purchase and sale of approximately 50%. However, the econometric model can simulate outcomes under a range of counterfactual vehicle replacement policies. We use the econometric model to simulate the profitability of an alternative replacement policy under pessimistic assumptions about the rate maintenance costs would increase and rental rates would have to be decreased if the company were to keep its rental cars longer than it does under the status quo. Depending on the vehicle type, we find that the company's expected discounted profits would be between 6% to over 140% higher under the suggested alternative operating strategy where vehicles are kept longer and rental rates of older vehicles are discounted to induce customers to rent them. The company found this analysis to be sufficiently convincing that it undertook an experiment to verify the predictions of the econometric model. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02H01H; 001A02H02M FD : Sciences économiques; Processus stochastique; Théorie filtrage; Econométrie; Etude cas; Modèle économétrique; Bien être économique; Simulation stochastique; Modèle simulation; Approximation; Moyenne; Estimation moyenne; Vente; Prédiction; Théorie prédiction; Méthode statistique; Estimation statistique; Analyse donnée; Donnée économique; 62P20; 60G25; 62M20 ED : Economic sciences; Stochastic process; Filtering theory; Econometrics; Case study; Econometric model; Welfare; Stochastic simulation; Simulation model; Approximation; Average; Mean estimation; Sales; Prediction; Prediction theory; Statistical method; Statistical estimation; Data analysis; Economic data SD : Ciencias económicas; Proceso estocástico; Econometría; Estudio caso; Modelo econométrico; Bienestar económico; Simulación estocástica; Modelo simulación; Aproximación; Promedio; Estimación promedio; Venta; Predicción; Método estadístico; Estimación estadística; Análisis datos; Dato económico LO : INIST-16460.354000185585030150 342/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0449280 INIST ET : Macroeconomic and household-level impacts of HIV/AIDS in Botswana AU : JEFFERIS (Keith); KINGHORN (Anthony); SIPHAMBE (Happy); THURLOW (James); MARLINK (Richard); FORSYTHE (Steven); BERTOZZI (Stefano M.) AF : Econsult Botswana/Gaborone/Botswana (1 aut.); Health and Development Africa/Johannesburg/Afrique du Sud (2 aut.); Department of Economics, University of Botswana/Botswana (3 aut.); International Food Policy Research Institute/Washington, DC/Etats-Unis (4 aut.); Harvard School of Public Health/Boston, Massachusetts/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Instituto Nacional de Salud Publica/Cuernavaca/Mexique (2 aut.); Center for Evaluation Research and Surveys, National Institute of Public Health (INSP)/Cuernavaca/Mexique (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : AIDS : (London); ISSN 0269-9370; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; Vol. 22; No. SUP1; S113-S119; Bibl. 13 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Objective: To measure the impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth and poverty in Botswana and estimate how providing treatment can mitigate its effects. Methods: Demographic and financial projections were combined with economic simulation models, including a macroeconomic growth model and a macro-microeconomic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model. Results: HIV/AIDS significantly reduces economic growth and increases household poverty. The impact is now severe enough to be affecting the economy as a whole, and threatens to pull some of the uninfected population into poverty. Providing antiretroviral therapy can partly offset this negative effect. Treatment increases health's share of government expenditure only marginally, because it increases economic growth and because withholding treatment raises the cost of other health services. Conclusion: Botswana's treatment programme is appropriate from a macroeconomic perspective. Conducting macroeconomic impact assessments is important in countries where prevalence rates are particularly high. CC : 002B05C02D; 002B02S05; 002B06D01 FD : SIDA; Antiviral; Chimiothérapie; Botswana; Antirétroviral; Virus immunodéficience humaine; Pauvreté; Statut socioéconomique FG : Virose; Infection; Traitement; Afrique; Lentivirus; Retroviridae; Virus; Immunodéficit; Immunopathologie; Epidémiologie ED : AIDS; Antiviral; Chemotherapy; Botswana; Antiretroviral agent; Human immunodeficiency virus; Poverty; Socioeconomic status EG : Viral disease; Infection; Treatment; Africa; Lentivirus; Retroviridae; Virus; Immune deficiency; Immunopathology; Epidemiology SD : SIDA; Antiviral; Quimioterapia; Botswana; Antiretroviral; Human immunodeficiency virus; Pobreza; Estatuto socioeconómico LO : INIST-22094.354000196377100130 343/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0437814 BDSP FT : (Utilisation de scores de propension dans des modèles de réponses non linéaires : le cas des dépenses de santé) ET : Use of propensity scores in non-linear response models : the case for health care expenditures AU : BASU (A.); POLSKY (D.); MANNING (W.G.) AF : National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge. MA./Etats-Unis DT : Livre; Niveau monographique SO : Use of propensity scores in non-linear response models : the case for health care expenditures; Etats-Unis; Cambridge: NBER; Da. 2008-06; Pp. 53 p. LA : Anglais EA : Under the assumption of no unmeasured confounders, a large literature exists on methods that can be used to estimating average treatment effects (ATE) from observational data and that spans regression models, propensity score adjustments using stratification, weighting or regression and even the combination of both as in doubly-robust estimators. However, comparison of these alternative methods is sparse in the context of data generated via non-linear models where treatment effects are heterogeneous, such as is in the case of healthcare cost data. In this paper, we compare the performance of alternative regression and propensity score-based estimators in estimating average treatment effects on outcomes that are generated via non-linear models. Using simulations, we find that in moderate size samples (n=5000), balancing on estimated propensity scores balances the covariate means across treatment arms but fails to balance higher-order moments and covariances amongst covariates, raising concern about its use in non-linear outcomes generating mechanisms. We also find that besides inverse-probability weighting (IPW) with propensity scores, no one estimator is consistent under all data generating mechanisms. The IPW estimator is itself prone to inconsistency due to misspecification of the model for estimating propensity scores. Even when it is consistent, the IPW estimator is usually extremely inefficient. Thus care should be taken before naively applying any one estimator to estimate ATE in these data. We develop a recommendation for an algorithm which may help applied researchers to arrive at the optimal estimator. We illustrate the application of this algorithm and also the performance of alternative methods in a cost dataset on breast cancer treatment CC : 002B30A11 FD : Dépense; Santé; Coût; Traitement; Tumeur maligne; Glande mammaire; Rentabilité; Aspect économique; Evaluation; Simulation; Régression; Modèle économétrique; Méthodologie; Etats-Unis FG : Cancer; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Expenditure; Health; Costs; Treatment; Malignant tumor; Mammary gland; Profitability; Economic aspect; Evaluation; Simulation; Regression; Econometric model; Methodology; United States EG : Cancer; North America; America SD : Gasto; Salud; Coste; Tratamiento; Tumor maligno; Glándula mamaria; Rentabilidad; Aspecto económico; Evaluación; Simulación; Regresión; Modelo econométrico; Metodología; Estados Unidos LO : BDSP/IRDES-P193, CODBAR 0058216 344/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0437765 BDSP FT : (Estimation de la valeur attendue d'une information parfaite partiale : une revue de la méthode) ET : Estimating the expected value of partial perfect information : a review of methods AU : COYLE (D.); OAKLEY (J.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : THE EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF HEALTH ECONOMICS; Allemagne; Da. 2008-08; Vol. 9; No. 3; Pp. 251-259; Bibl. 15 ref.; 3 tab., 3 fig. LA : Anglais EA : Value of information analysis provides a framework for the analysis of uncertainty within economic analysis by focussing on the value of obtaining further information to reduce uncertainty. The mathematical definition of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) is fixed, though there are different methods in the literature for its estimation. In this paper these methods are explored and compared. Analysis was conducted using a disease model for Parkinson's disease. Five methods for estimating partial EVPIs (EVPPIs) were used : a single Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method, the unit normal loss integral (UNLI) method, a two-stage method using MCS, a two-stage method using MCS and quadrature and a difference method requiring two MCS. EVPPI was estimated for each individual parameter in the model as well as for three groups of parameters (transition probabilities, costs and utilities). Using 5,000 replications, four methods returned similar results for EVPPIs. With 5 million replications, results were near identical. However, the difference method repeatedly gave estimates substantially different to the other methods. The difference method is not rooted in the mathematical definition of EVPI and is clearly an inappropriate method for estimating EVPPI. The single MCS and UNLI methods were the least complex methods to use, but are restricted in their appropriateness. The two-stage MCS and quadrature-based methods are complex and time consuming. Thus, where appropriate, EVPPI should be estimated using either the single MCS or UNLI method. However, where neither of these methods is appropriate, either of the two-stage MCS and quadrature methods should be used CC : 002B30A11 FD : Aspect économique; Evaluation; Information; Analyse valeur; Méthodologie; Modèle économétrique ED : Economic aspect; Evaluation; Information; Value analysis; Methodology; Econometric model SD : Aspecto económico; Evaluación; Información; Análisis valor; Metodología; Modelo econométrico LO : BDSP/IRDES-P151, CODBAR 0058239 345/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0430202 INIST ET : The principles of calibrating traffic microsimulation models AU : HOLLANDER (Yaron); RONGHUI LIU AF : Steer Davies Gleave, 28-32 Upper Ground/London SE1 9PD/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.); Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, 38 University Road/Leeds LS2 9JT/Royaume-Uni (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation; ISSN 0049-4488; Coden TNPRDN; Pays-Bas; Da. 2008; Vol. 35; No. 3; Pp. 347-362; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : Traffic microsimulation models normally include a large number of parameters that must be calibrated before the model can be used as a tool for prediction. A wave of methodologies for calibrating such models has been recently proposed in the literature, but there have been no attempts to identify general calibration principles based on their collective experience. The current paper attempts to guide traffic analysts through the basic requirements of the calibration of microsimulation models. Among the issues discussed here are underlying assumptions of the calibration process, the scope of the calibration problem, formulation and automation, measuring goodness-of-fit, and the need for repeated model runs. CC : 001D15B FD : Gestion trafic; Modèle simulation; Etalonnage; Etude méthode; Résolution problème; Formulation; Automatisation; Test ajustement; Validation ED : Traffic management; Simulation model; Calibration; Method study; Problem solving; Formulation; Automation; Goodness of fit test; Validation SD : Gestión tráfico; Modelo simulación; Contraste; Estudio método; Resolución problema; Formulación; Automatización; Prueba ajuste; Validación LO : INIST-15985.354000183032640040 346/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0389049 INIST ET : Cost-Effectiveness of Coronary MDCT in the Triage of Patients with Acute Chest Pain AU : LADAPO (Joseph A.); HOFFMANN (Udo); BAMBERG (Fabian); NAGURNEY (John T.); CUTLERS (David M.); WEINSTEIN (Milton C.); GAZELLE (G. Scott) AF : Harvard Ph.D. Program in Health Policy, 14 Story St., 4th Floor/Cambridge, MA 02138/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital/Boston, MA/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 3 aut., 7 aut.); Harvard Medical School/Boston, MA/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 7 aut.); Department of Emergency Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital/Boston, MA/Etats-Unis (4 aut.); Department of Economics, Harvard University/Cambridge, MA/Etats-Unis (5 aut.); National Bureau of Economic Research/Cambridge, MA/Etats-Unis (5 aut.); Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard School of Public Health/Boston, MA/Etats-Unis (6 aut., 7 aut.); Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital/Boston, MA/Etats-Unis (7 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : American journal of roentgenology : (1976); ISSN 0361-803X; Coden AAJRDX; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; Vol. 191; No. 2; Pp. 455-463; Bibl. 50 ref. LA : Anglais EA : OBJECTIVE. Patients at low risk for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who present to the emergency department complaining of acute chest pain place a substantial economic burden on the U.S. health care system. Noninvasive 64-MDCT coronary angiography may facilitate their triage, and we evaluated its cost-effectiveness. MATERIALS AND METHODS. A microsimulation model was developed to compare costs and health effects of performing CT coronary angiography and either discharging, stress testing, or referring emergency department patients for invasive coronary angiography, depending on their severity of atherosclerosis, compared with a standard-of-care (SOC) algorithm that based management on biomarkers and stress tests alone. RESULTS. Using CT coronary angiography to triage 55-year-old men with acute chest pain increased emergency department and hospital costs by $110 and raised total health care costs by $200. In 55-year-old women, the technology was cost-saving; emergency department and hospital costs decreased by $410, and total health care costs decreased by $380. Compared with the SOC, CT coronary angiography-based triage extended life expectancy by 10 days in men and by 6 days in women. This translated into corresponding improvements of 0.03 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and 0.01 QALYs, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for CT coronary angiography was $6,400 per QALY in men; in women, CT coronary angiography was cost-saving. Cost-effectiveness ratios were sensitive to several parameters but generally remained in the range of what is typically considered cost-effective. CONCLUSION. CT coronary angiography-based triage for patients with low-risk chest pain is modestly more effective than the SOC. It is also cost-saving in women and associated with low cost-effectiveness ratios in men. CC : 002B24; 002B12A03 FD : Cardiopathie coronaire; Analyse coût efficacité; Artère coronaire; Aigu; Homme; Thorax; Douleur; Médecine nucléaire; Radiologie; Scanner X multibarrettes FG : Economie santé; Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire; Santé publique ED : Coronary heart disease; Cost efficiency analysis; Coronary artery; Acute; Human; Thorax; Pain; Nuclear medicine; Radiology; Multidetector scanner EG : Health economy; Cardiovascular disease; Public health SD : Cardiopatía coronaria; Análisis costo eficacia; Arteria coronaria; Agudo; Hombre; Tórax; Dolor; Medicina nuclear; Radiología LO : INIST-5093.354000197349880210 347/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0375917 INIST ET : Assessment of the Suitability of Microsimulation as a Tool for the Evaluation of Macroscopically Optimized Traffic Signal Timings AU : STEVANOVIC (Aleksandar Z.); MARTIN (Peter T.) AF : Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Utah, 122 S. Central Campus Dr., Rm. 104/Salt Lake City, UT 84112-0561/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; Vol. 134; No. 2; Pp. 59-67; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : In practice, traffic signal timings are derived using macroscopic tools that are essentially deterministic. Traffic flows, signal phasing, and street geometry are processed to deliver optimized signal timings. Objective functions strive for efficiency through minimizing measures such as delay and journey time. We now have traffic microsimulation tools that model traffic by imitating its stochastic nature. This paper looks at microsimulation as a means of testing optimized signal timings. We assess the suitability of evaluating signal timings optimized macroscopically through microsimulation. We analyze a range of traffic demand and traffic control scenarios. A real-world arterial with 12 signalized intersections serves as a test bed for the experiments. The results show that when macroscopically optimized signal timings are subject to extensive evaluation through microsimulation, their efficiency is shown to be inconsistent. The paper concludes that the traffic microsimulation tools cannot always be relied upon to evaluate macroscopically optimized traffic signal timings because these timings sometimes perform worse, in microsimulation, than the nonoptimized signal timings. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Feu signalisation; Gestion trafic; Optimisation; Retard; Timing; Modèle simulation; Performance; Résultat mesure ED : Road traffic; Traffic lights; Traffic management; Optimization; Delay; Timing; Simulation model; Performance; Measurement result SD : Tráfico carretera; Semáforo; Gestión tráfico; Optimización; Retraso; Timing; Modelo simulación; Rendimiento; Resultado medición LO : INIST-572E.354000183621040010 348/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0365838 INIST ET : A Study on Gossiping in Transportation Networks AU : KRAUS (Sarit); PARSHANI (Roni); SHAVITT (Yuval) AF : Department of Computer Science, Bar Ilan University/Ramat-Gan 52900/Israël (1 aut.); Department of Physics, Bar Ilan University/Ramat-Gan 52900/Israël (2 aut.); School of Electrical Engineering, Tel Aviv University/Tel Aviv 69978/Israël (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Correspondance, lettre; Niveau analytique SO : IEEE transactions on vehicular technology; ISSN 0018-9545; Coden ITVTAB; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; Vol. 57; No. 4; Pp. 2602-2607; Bibl. 28 ref. LA : Anglais EA : To alleviate road congestion, suggestions have been made to equip cars with wireless communication to allow drivers to exchange information. This information is used to bypass congested areas. We study the dynamics of this solution using a hybrid microsimulation tool that we have developed and show that gossiping is an efficient method of information propagation. An increase in the number of gossiping agents leads to a faster and wider distribution of information. On the other hand, as in other information models, when the number of agents obtaining information about road conditions increases, their routing performance may decrease (unless smarter algorithms are deployed) since they will all attempt to use the same uncongested roads. Nevertheless, when the number of gossiping agents is balanced (20%-30% in our simulations), the average traveling time of gossiping agents is similar to the average traveling time of those who obtain information from a centralized information center. CC : 001D04B02B; 001D04B02G; 001D05I01B; 001D15C FD : Réseau transport; Congestion trafic; Automobile; Télécommunication sans fil; Excitateur; Routage; Evaluation performance; Algorithme; Simulation système; Réseau ad hoc; Stabilité réseau électrique; Télétrafic; Véhicule routier ED : Transportation network; Traffic congestion; Motor car; Wireless telecommunication; Driver; Routing; Performance evaluation; Algorithm; System simulation; Ad hoc network; Power system stability; Teletraffic; Road vehicle SD : Red transporte; Congestión tráfico; Automóvil; Telecomunicación sin hilo; Excitador; Enrutamiento; Evaluación prestación; Algoritmo; Simulación sistema; Red ad hoc; Teletráfico; Vehículo caminero LO : INIST-222H1.354000200370170550 349/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0358923 INIST ET : Estimation of the distribution of travel times by repeated simulations AU : HOLLANDER (Yaron); RONGHUI LIU AF : Steer Davies Gleave, 28 Upper Ground/London SE1 9PD/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.); Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, 38 University Road/Leeds LS2 9JT/Royaume-Uni (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part C, Emerging technologies; ISSN 0968-090X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2008; Vol. 16; No. 2; Pp. 212-231; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : In recent years, the reliability of transport systems has been widely recognised as a key issue in transport planning and evaluation. To analyse the level of reliability we need information about the distribution of travel times. Transport analysts are in a serious need for tools to estimate this distribution in hypothetical scenarios, but there are currently few such tools. In this paper we raise the question of whether it is possible to look at the outputs of each single run of a traffic microsimulation model as estimates of traffic conditions on a single day, while accounting for the fact that randomness and heterogeneity are in the nature of traffic phenomena. If it is possible to establish an analogy between a single run and a single day, then the distribution of outputs between runs can be used as an estimate of the respective distribution in the real network. Investigating this issue is vital since many practitioners wrongly assume that such analogy can be taken for granted. We discuss here methodological, statistical and computational aspects that this question brings in, and illustrate them in a series of experiments, where a special procedure for calibrating the microsimulation model has a key role. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Modélisation; Optimisation; Planification; Système transport; Durée trajet; Distribution temporelle; Modèle simulation; Etalonnage; Etude cas ED : Transportation; Modeling; Optimization; Planning; Transportation system; Travel time; Time distribution; Simulation model; Calibration; Case study SD : Transportes; Modelización; Optimización; Planificación; Sistema de transporte; Duración trayecto; Distribución temporal; Modelo simulación; Contraste; Estudio caso LO : INIST-12377C.354000175076420060 350/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0330266 INIST ET : Estimating Long-term Effectiveness of Lung Cancer Screening in the Mayo CT Screening Study AU : MCMAHON (Pamela M.); CHUNG YIN KONG; JOHNSON (Bruce E.); WEINSTEIN (Milton C.); WEEKS (Jane C.); KUNTZ (Karen M.); SHEPARD (Jo-Anne O.); SWENSEN (Stephen J.); GAZELLE (G. Scott) AF : Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, 101 Merrimac St, 10th Floor/Boston, MA 02114/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 9 aut.); Department of Radiology, Harvard Medical School/Boston, Mass/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 7 aut., 9 aut.); Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School/Boston, Mass/Etats-Unis (3 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut.); Lowe Center for Thoracic Oncology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute/Boston, Mass/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Department of Medical Oncology/Population Sciences, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute/Boston, Mass/Etats-Unis (4 aut.); Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard School of Public Health/Boston, Mass/Etats-Unis (4 aut., 6 aut., 9 aut.); Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota/Minneapolis, Minn/Etats-Unis (6 aut.); Department of Radiology, Mayo Clinic/Rochester, Minn/Etats-Unis (8 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Radiology; ISSN 0033-8419; Coden RADLAX; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; Vol. 248; No. 1; Pp. 278-287; Bibl. 57 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Purpose: To use individual-level data provided from the single-arm study of helical computed tomographic (CT) screening at the Mayo Clinic (Rochester, Minn) to estimate the longterm effectiveness of screening in Mayo study participants and to compare estimates from an existing lung cancer stmulation model with estimates from a different modeling approach that used the same data. Materials :The study was approved by institutional review boards and was HIPAA compliant. Deidentified individual-level data from participants (1520 current or former smokers aged 50-85 years) in the Mayo Clinic helical CT screening study were used to populate the Lung Cancer Policy Model, a comprehensive microsimulation model of lung cancer development, screening findings, treatment results, and long-term outcomes. Tlie model predicted diagnosed cases of lung cancer and deaths per simulated study arm (five annual screening examinations vs no screening). Main outcome measures were predicted changes in lung cancerspecific and all-cause mortality as functions of follow-up time after simulated enrollment and randomization. Results: At 6-year follow-up, the screening arm had an estimated 37% relative increase in lung cancer detection, compared with the control arm. At 15-year follow-up, five annual screening examinations yielded a 9% relative increase in lung cancer detection. the relative reduction in cumulative lung cancer-specific mortality from five annual screening examinations was 28% at 6-year follow-up (15% at 15 years). The relative reduction in cumulative all-cause mortality from five annual screening examinations was 4% at 6-year follow-up (2% at 15 years). Conclusion: Screening may reduce lung cancer-specific mortality but may offer a smaller reduction in overall mortality because of increased competing mortality risks associated with smoking. CC : 002B24; 002B11A; 002B26 FD : Cancer du poumon; Tomodensitométrie; Long terme; Dépistage; Médecine nucléaire; Radiologie FG : Pathologie de l'appareil respiratoire; Pathologie des bronches; Pathologie des poumons; Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Imagerie médicale; Radiodiagnostic ED : Lung cancer; Computerized axial tomography; Long term; Medical screening; Nuclear medicine; Radiology EG : Respiratory disease; Bronchus disease; Lung disease; Malignant tumor; Cancer; Medical imagery; Radiodiagnosis SD : Cáncer del pulmón; Tomodensitometría; Largo plazo; Descubrimiento; Medicina nuclear; Radiología LO : INIST-6163.354000197995770310 351/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0328495 BDSP FT : (La croissance des dépenses de santé : ré-évaluer la menace du vieillissement) ET : Health expenditures growth : reassessing the threat of aging AU : DORMONT (B.); GRIGNON (M.); HUBER (H.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : HEALTH ECONOMICS; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2006; Vol. 15; No. 9; Pp. 947-963; Bibl. dissem.; tabl. LA : Anglais EA : In this paper, we evaluate the respective effects of demographic change, changes in morbidity and changes in practices on growth in health care expenditures. We use microdata, i.e. representative samples of 3441 and 5003 French individuals observed in 1992 and 2000. Our data provide detailed information about morbidity and allow us to observe three components of expenditures : ambulatory care, pharmaceutical and hospital expenditures. We propose an original microsimulation method to identify the components of the drift observed between 1992 and 2000 in the health expenditure age profile. On the one hand, we find empirical evidence of health improvement at a given age : changes in morbidity induce a downward drift of the profile. On the other hand, the drift due to changes in practices is upward and sizeable. Detailed analysis attributes most of this drift to technological innovation. After applying our results at the macroeconomic level, we find that the rise in health care expenditures due to ageing is relatively small. The impact of changes in practices is 3.8 times larger. Furthermore, changes in morbidity induce savings which more than offset the increase in spending due to population ageing CC : 002B30A11 FD : Dépense; Santé; Population; Sénescence; Personne âgée; Croissance; Age; Innovation; Technologie; Médecine; Médecin; Pratique professionnelle; Ambulatoire; Soin; Hôpital; Médicament; Enquête; Evaluation; Modèle économétrique; France FG : Homme; Europe ED : Expenditure; Health; Population; Senescence; Elderly; Growth; Age; Innovation; Technology; Medicine; Physician; Professional practice; Ambulatory; Care; Hospital; Drug; Survey; Evaluation; Econometric model; France EG : Human; Europe SD : Gasto; Salud; Población; Senescencia; Anciano; Crecimiento; Edad; Innovación; Tecnología; Medicina; Médico; Práctica profesional; Ambulatorio; Cuidado; Hospital; Medicamento; Encuesta; Evaluación; Modelo econométrico; Francia LO : BDSP/IRDES-P173 352/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0300431 INIST ET : Validation of TASHA : A 24-h activity scheduling microsimulation model AU : ROORDA (Matthew J.); MILLER (Eric J.); HABIB (Khandker M. N.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street/Toronto, Ont., MSS IA4/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice; ISSN 0965-8564; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2008; Vol. 42; No. 2; Pp. 360-375; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : The objective of this paper is to verify/validate the results of an application of the Travel Activity Scheduler for House-hold Agents (TASHA) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada. Activity generation and scheduling components of TASHA are validated using 1996 and 2001 travel survey data for the GTA. This validation proceeds in two parts: (a) verification that TASHA replicates the 1996 base case upon which the model was originally built; and (b) comparison of TASHA's forecasts of 2001 daily travel behaviour with observed travel survey data for 2001. TASHA activity generation and scheduling model components replicate observed activities with good accuracy and precision for the base year. Although TASHA is not able to predict an observed increase in activity participation rate in a five year forecast, the dis- tribution of activities in the day is forecast with greater success. Predictions of average travel distance are oversimulated in the base year by 0.9%. Increased average distances are underpredicted for school, shopping, and other activities, and are overpredicted for work and return home activities. These validation results are promising, although there exist opportunities to improve model performance, and to further validate other elements of the TASHA model. CC : 001D15A; 001D15B FD : Transports; Ordonnancement; Modélisation; Voyage; Prévision demande; Modèle simulation; Activité; Validation; Demande transport; Etude méthode; Affectation trafic ED : Transportation; Scheduling; Modeling; Travel; Demand forecasting; Simulation model; Activity; Validation; Transport demand; Method study; Traffic assignment SD : Transportes; Reglamento; Modelización; Viaje; Previsión demanda; Modelo simulación; Actividad; Validación; Demanda transporte; Estudio método; Afectación tráfico LO : INIST-12377A.354000175092910070 353/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0273559 INIST ET : Calibration of Microsimulation with Heuristic Optimization Methods AU : JINGTAO MA; HU DONG; ZHANG (H. Michael) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, 1 Shields Avenue/Davis, CA 95616/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Perteet, Inc., 2707 Colby Avenue, Suite 900/Everett, WA 98201/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); School of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, 1239 Siping Road/Shanghai, 200092/Chine (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; No. 1999; Pp. 208-217; Bibl. 30 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Model calibration is a crucial step in building a reliable microscopic traffic simulation application because it serves as the additional check to ensure that the model parameters accurately reflect the local driving environment so that decisions made on the basis of these results will not be misinformed decisions. Because of its stochastic nature and complexity, the calibration problem, usually formulated as an optimization problem, is often solved by using heuristic methods. To date, calibration is still a time-consuming task because many adopted methods require many simulation runs in search of an optimal solution. Moreover, many aspects of the calibration problem are not fully understood and need further investigation. In this study, another heuristics calibration algorithm is developed on the basis of the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation scheme and applied to calibration of several networks coded in Paramics. The results indicate that the new heuristic algorithm can reach the same level of accuracy with considerably fewer iterations and computer processor time than other heuristic algorithms such as genetic algorithms and the trial-and-error iterative adjustment algorithm. Applications of all three heuristic methods in a northern California network also reveal that some model parameters affect the simulation results more significantly than others. These findings can help modelers better choose calibration methods and fine-tune key parameters. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Ecoulement trafic; Trafic routier; Modèle simulation; Modèle microscopique; Etalonnage; Méthode heuristique; Optimisation; Modèle comportement; Conduite véhicule; Application; Réseau routier; Californie FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Traffic flow; Road traffic; Simulation model; Microscopic model; Calibration; Heuristic method; Optimization; Behavior model; Vehicle driving; Application; Road network; California EG : United States; North America; America SD : Flujo tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Modelo simulación; Modelo microscópico; Contraste; Método heurístico; Optimización; Modelo comportamiento; Conducción vehículo; Aplicación; Red carretera; California LO : INIST-10459B.354000161866120220 354/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0273517 INIST ET : Driver Heterogeneity in Car Following and Its Impact on Modeling Traffic Dynamics AU : OSSEN (Saskia); HOOGENDOORN (Serge P.) AF : Transport and Planning Department, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1/2628 CN Delft/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; No. 1999; Pp. 95-103; Bibl. 15 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A dedicated trajectory data collection method using a helicopter enabled a range of in-depth empirical studies of car-following behavior. These studies found a high degree of heterogeneity in car-following behavior; that is, drivers' driving styles turned out to be highly different because different modeling approaches were needed to model these behaviors satisfactorily. Therefore the impact of heterogeneity in car following on modeling traffic dynamics is examined to gain insight into the effect of incorporating different types and degrees of heterogeneity in car-following behavior on the dynamics of a simulated traffic flow. The microsimulation approach that was adopted focused on two case studies: the first case study focused on heterogeneity in parameter values by comparing stability results for heterogeneous platoons and homogeneous platoons, which could in fact be seen as a solid preparation for the second case study. The second study was a simulation of a fixed stretch of road on which, from a certain point on, a speed limit was imposed for the drivers. In this case study the link between the empirical results and the simulations was strengthened as several types of heterogeneity (e.g., different model specifications for different drivers and different parameter settings and combinations of them) were explored and compared with the empirically estimated parameters. Both analyses show clear differences between simulations with homogeneous drivers and simulations with heterogeneous drivers. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Ecoulement trafic; Trafic routier; Modélisation; Modèle dynamique; Hétérogénéité; Trajectoire; Collecte donnée; Comportement; Conducteur véhicule; Modèle empirique; Etude cas; Résultat; Suivi de véhicule ED : Traffic flow; Road traffic; Modeling; Dynamic model; Heterogeneity; Trajectory; Data gathering; Behavior; Vehicle driver; Empirical model; Case study; Result; Car following SD : Flujo tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Modelización; Modelo dinámico; Heterogeneidad; Trayectoria; Recolección dato; Conducta; Conductor vehículo; Modelo empírico; Estudio caso; Resultado LO : INIST-10459B.354000161866120110 355/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0273515 INIST ET : Bottleneck Identification and Calibration for Corridor Management Planning AU : XUEGANG BAN; LIANYU CHU; BENOUAR (Hamed) AF : California Center for Innovative Transportation, University of California, Berkeley, 2105 Bancroft Way, Suite 300/Berkeley, CA 94720-3830/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 3 aut.); California Center for Innovative Transportation, University of California, Berkeley, 522 Social Science Tower/Irvine, CA 92697-3600/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; No. 1999; Pp. 40-53; Bibl. 13 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Corridor mobility improvements require a new approach to corridor management planning and operations. Recent investigations are aimed at improving the safety and efficiency of existing transportation systems by integrating state-of-the-art operational analysis (such as microsimulation) into more traditional corridor planning. One of the important elements in developing corridor management improvements is better bottleneck analysis. Such analyses play a crucial role in corridor management planning for both performance assessment and simulation model calibration. New approaches are proposed for bottleneck identification and calibration in simulation. Identification is conducted with percentile speeds based on data from multiple days. It turns out that this method is more appropriate for urban congested freeways than use of single-day data. The algorithm for bottleneck calibration represents the first attempt to rigorously calibrate bottlenecks in microsimulation. It is a three-step process-including visual assessment, bottleneck area matching, and detailed speed calibration-aiming to calibrate bottlenecks in three levels of detail. With the 1-880 corridor network in the San Francisco Bay Area of California, it has been shown that the identification method can adequately identify corridor bottlenecks; the calibration procedure complements and improves the current practice of simulation calibration. CC : 001D15B; 001D15C FD : Ecoulement trafic; Goulot étranglement; Trafic routier; Corridor; Planning gestion; Gestion trafic; Identification; Etalonnage; Analyse donnée; Congestion trafic; Exemple; Californie; Durée trajet FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Traffic flow; Bottleneck; Road traffic; Corridor; Management planning; Traffic management; Identification; Calibration; Data analysis; Traffic congestion; Example; California; Travel time EG : United States; North America; America SD : Flujo tráfico; Gollete estrangulamiento; Tráfico carretera; Corredor; Programación gestión; Gestión tráfico; Identificación; Contraste; Análisis datos; Congestión tráfico; Ejemplo; California; Duración trayecto LO : INIST-10459B.354000161866120050 356/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0270654 INIST ET : Likelihood approximation by numerical integration on sparse grids AU : HEISS (Florian); WINSCHEL (Viktor) AF : Department of Economics, University of Munich, Ludwigstr. 28 RG/80539 Munich/Allemagne (1 aut.); Department of Economics, University of Mannheim, L7, 3-5/68163 Mannheim/Allemagne (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2008; Vol. 144; No. 1; Pp. 62-80; Bibl. 1 p. LA : Anglais EA : The calculation of likelihood functions of many econometric models requires the evaluation of integrals without analytical solutions. Approaches for extending Gaussian quadrature to multiple dimensions discussed in the literature are either very specific or suffer from exponentially rising computational costs in the number of dimensions. We propose an extension that is very general and easily implemented, and does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Monte Carlo experiments for the mixed logit model indicate the superior performance of the proposed method over simulation techniques. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02I01D; 001A02E02; 001A02E11 FD : Sciences économiques; Cubature; Distribution statistique; Théorie approximation; Analyse numérique; Méthode stochastique; Approximation numérique; Intégration numérique; Maillage; Fonction vraisemblance; Modèle économétrique; Econométrie; Intégrale; Solution analytique; Formule quadrature; Implémentation; Méthode Monte Carlo; Modèle mixte; Modèle logit; Simulation; Modèle simulation; Méthode statistique; Estimation statistique; Analyse donnée; Donnée économique; 65Dxx; 65D99; 65D30; 28XX; 62P20; 65D32; 41A55; 62E17; 65C05 ED : Economic sciences; Cubature; Statistical distribution; Approximation theory; Numerical analysis; Stochastic method; Numerical approximation; Numerical integration; Grid pattern; Likelihood function; Econometric model; Econometrics; Integral; Analytical solution; Quadrature formula; Implementation; Monte Carlo method; Mixed model; Logit model; Simulation; Simulation model; Statistical method; Statistical estimation; Data analysis; Economic data SD : Ciencias económicas; Cubicación; Distribución estadística; Análisis numérico; Método estocástico; Aproximación numérica; Integración numérica; Celdarada; Función verosimilitud; Modelo econométrico; Econometría; Integral; Solución analítica; Fórmula cuadratura; Implementación; Método Monte Carlo; Modelo mixto; Modelo logit; Simulación; Modelo simulación; Método estadístico; Estimación estadística; Análisis datos; Dato económico LO : INIST-16460.354000195932930030 357/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0263951 INIST ET : Evaluation of Impacts of Open Road Tolling on Main-Line Toll Plaza AU : KLODZINSKI (Jack); GORDIN (Eric); AL-DEEK (Haitham M.) AF : Florida's Turnpike Enterprise, URS Corporation, P.O. Box 613069/Ocoee, FL 34761/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Transcore, P.O. Box 613069/Ocoee, FL 34761/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Central Florida, P.O. Box 162450/Orlando, FL 32816-2450/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; No. 2012; Pp. 72-83; Bibl. 28 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Implementation of open road tolling (ORT) can provide better performance for a toll collection facility than the use of a conventional toll plaza design. Improvements have been sought to decrease toll transaction times so that drivers experience reduced delays or none at all. Although intelligent transportation systems technology such as automatic vehicle identification in the form of electronic toll collection (ETC) is a concept that has revolutionized toll collection, with the ever-increasing traffic volumes on toll facilities, more innovative methods such as ORT are being deployed. Agencies around the world have implemented ORT, and some have integrated express (high-speed) ETC lanes in their normal plaza design. A main-line toll plaza in Orlando, Florida, was renovated following an ORT design concept. The plaza was expanded to include express ETC lanes separated from the cash payment lanes by a barrier. Data were collected before construction, during construction, and after construction was completed. Analysis showed that average reduced delays for manual cash customers equaled 49.8% and for automatic coin machine customers, 55.3%; and the speed in the express ETC lanes increased by 57%. To evaluate the benefits further, forecast scenario results from a toll plaza microsimulation model, TPSIM, were analyzed with positive conclusions. An analysis of crash data showed a 22% drop in total crashes at the plaza and a 26% drop in the plaza's area of influence. This case study provided conclusive results that implementing ORT compared with using a conventional toll facility is beneficial for improving toll collection. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Route à péage; Etude cas; Etude impact; Evaluation performance; Modèle simulation; Floride; Analyse avantage coût FG : Etats-Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Toll road; Case study; Impact study; Performance evaluation; Simulation model; Florida; Cost benefit analysis EG : United States; North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Carretera peaje; Estudio caso; Estudio impacto; Evaluación prestación; Modelo simulación; Florida; Análisis coste beneficio LO : INIST-10459B.354000161971300090 358/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0263851 INIST ET : Evaluating Effects of Toll Strategies on Route Diversion and Travel Times for Origin-Destination Pairs in a Regional Transportation Network AU : AL-DEEK (Haitham); RAVI CHANDRA (Srinivasa); EMAM (Emam B.); KLODZINSKI (Jack) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Central Florida, 4000 Central Florida Boulevard/Orlando, FL 32816-2450/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); Florida's Turnpike Enterprise, P.O. Box 613069/Ocoee, FL 34761/Etats-Unis (3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; No. 2035; Pp. 205-215; Bibl. 16 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Congestion on freeway facilities is a growing menace. Interstate 4 (1-4) in the Central Florida region has been experiencing delays during peak hour; this has warranted research on traffic management strategies. The public, through the media, had proposed removing tolls on state toll roads to divert traffic from 1-4. A microsimulation model, Paramics, was used to examine the potential impact of this proposal. SR-417 is a relatively uncongested toll road alternative to 1-4. SR-528 is the east-west toll road connecting SR-417 and 1-4. Commuters on SR-417 have to travel 15 mi longer and pay $5 compared with no monetary cost on 1-4 for the same trip. The public and politicians are reluctant to toll 1-4 to relieve congestion. The results from the simulation indicated that under recurring congestion conditions on 1-4, removing tolls on SR-417 and SR-528 would not divert enough traffic from 1-4 because of the 15-mi advantage. Under incident and lane closure scenarios on 1-4 with toll reduction on SR-417 and SR-528, the travel time would increase on 1-4. This result would prompt some diversion, with volumes and travel times increasing on SR-417. It was concluded that the amount of traffic that would be diverted from 1-4 to the toll roads would not significantly relieve congestion on 1-4. When specific origin-destination pairs were analyzed, average travel time savings on 1-4 were only around 5 min. It was concluded that contrary to the media and public perception, toll reduction would only have a minimum impact on reducing 1-4 congestion. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Autoroute; Péage; Durée trajet; Transport régional; Réseau transport; Etude impact; Congestion trafic; Stratégie; Méthodologie; Scénario; Réduction; Etalonnage; Etude comparative ED : Road traffic; Freeway; Toll; Travel time; Regional transportation; Transportation network; Impact study; Traffic congestion; Strategy; Methodology; Script; Reduction; Calibration; Comparative study SD : Tráfico carretera; Autopista; Peaje; Duración trayecto; Transporte regional; Red transporte; Estudio impacto; Congestión tráfico; Estrategia; Metodología; Argumento; Reducción; Contraste; Estudio comparativo LO : INIST-10459B.354000161970800230 359/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0263835 INIST ET : VisSim-Based Genetic Algorithm Optimization of Signal Timings AU : STEVANOVIC (Aleksandar); MARTIN (Peter T.); STEVANOVIC (Jelka) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Utah, 122 South Central Campus Drive, Rm. 104/Salt Lake City, Utah 84112-0561/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; No. 2035; Pp. 59-68; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Genetic algorithm optimizations of traffic signal timings have been shown to be effective, continually outperforming traditional optimization tools such as Synchro and TRANSYT-7F. However, their application has been limited to scholarly research and evaluations. Only one tool has matured to a commercial deployment: direct CorSim optimization, a feature of TRANSYT-7F. A genetic algorithm formulation, VisSim-based genetic algorithm optimization of signal timings (VISGAOST), is presented; it builds on the best of the recorded methods by extending their capabilities. It optimizes four basic signal timing parameters with VisSim microsimulation as an evaluation environment. The program brings new optimization features not available in the direct CorSim optimization, such as the optimization of phasing sequences, multiple coordinated systems and uncoordinated intersections, fully actuated isolated intersections, and multiple time periods. The formulation has two features that enhance and reduce computational time: optimization resumption and parallel computing. The program has been tested on two VisSim networks: a hypothetical grid network and a real-world arterial of actuated-coordinated intersections in Park City, Utah. The results show that timing plans optimized by the genetic algorithm outperformed the best Synchro plans in both cases, reducing delay and stops by at least 5%. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Gestion trafic; Optimisation; Timing; Algorithme génétique; Feu signalisation; Evaluation performance ED : Road traffic; Traffic management; Optimization; Timing; Genetic algorithm; Traffic lights; Performance evaluation SD : Tráfico carretera; Gestión tráfico; Optimización; Timing; Algoritmo genético; Semáforo; Evaluación prestación LO : INIST-10459B.354000161970800070 360/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0242746 INIST ET : Method for Assessing Safety of Routes in a Road Network AU : DIJKSTRA (Atze); DROLENGA (Hans); VAN MAARSEVEEN (Martin) AF : SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research, P.O. Box 1090/2260 BB Leidschendam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut.); Centre for Transport Studies, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217/7500 AE Enschede/Pays-Bas (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; No. 2019; Pp. 82-90; Bibl. 22 ref. LA : Anglais EA : In the Netherlands, the concept of sustainably safe traffic is the leading vision in road safety policy and research. The main goal of a sustainably safe road transport system is to reduce the annual number of road accident casualties to a fraction of the current levels. Important requirements resulting from this vision are that trips follow safe roads as much as possible, trips be as short as possible, and the quickest and safest routes coincide. Modeling route choice will provide answers to the planning issues of sustainably safe traffic; however, the safety effects of these requirements constitute a totally different issue, which needs to be dealt with. The focus of this study is on the design of a method that enables the planner to determine the safety effects of existing route choice and the changes in route choice. A description of road safety can be made in various ways. When a microscopic model is used, conflicts between vehicles will be an integral part of the simulation. The outcome will be used to compare the types of conflicts in a given simulation with the types of conflicts that would be acceptable in a sustainably safe road environment, for example, conflicts with opposing vehicles should be minimized at high speed differentials. A so-called route diagram of each route can be checked according to a series of criteria, each representing requirements for a sustainably safe route choice. Each criterion of the route diagram contributes to the total safety level of a route by the number of demerit points scored by the criterion. The criteria are described and tested in a microsimulation of alternative routes in a synthetic road network. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O02; 295 FD : Sécurité trafic; Trafic routier; Réseau routier; Etude méthode; Evaluation; Pays-Bas; Choix; Itinéraire; Exigence; Indicateur; Conflit; Application FG : Europe ED : Traffic safety; Road traffic; Road network; Method study; Evaluation; Netherlands; Choice; Route; Requirement; Indicator; Conflict; Application EG : Europe SD : Seguridad tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Red carretera; Estudio método; Evaluación; Holanda; Elección; Itinerario; Exigencia; Indicador; Conflicto; Aplicación LO : INIST-10459B.354000161971220110 361/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0209472 BDSP FT : (Utilisation du modèle de microsimulation &dquot;LifePaths&dquot;, élaboré par Statistique Canada pour prévoir l'état de santé des personnes âgées canadiennes) ET : Using Statistics Canada LifePaths Microsimulation Model to Project the Health Status of Canadian Elderly AU : LEGARE (J.); DECARIE (Y.) AF : Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population. (S.E.D.A.P.). Hamilton./Canada DT : Livre; Niveau monographique SO : Using Statistics Canada LifePaths Microsimulation Model to Project the Health Status of Canadian Elderly; Canada; Hamilton: SEDAP; Da. 2008-01; Pp. 19 p. LA : Anglais EA : Complex population projections usually use microsimulation models ; in Canada, Statistics Canada has developed a global dynamic microsimulation model named LifePaths in the Modgen programming language to be used in policy research. LifePaths provides a platform to build on for our research program, conjointly with Dr Janice Keefe from Mount Saint Vincent University, on projections of the Canadian chronic homecare needs for the elderly up to 2031 and of the human resources required. Beside marital status, family networks and living arrangements, future health status of the elderly is a key variable, but an intricate one. Since health status transitions were previously conditioned only on age and sex, we will use here the current disability module of LifePaths with longitudinal data from Canada's National Population Health Survey (NPHS). These new health status transitions are considering other significant explicative variables like marital status, education etc. We will then present projections of future Canadian elderly by health status and a comparison with nine European countries for the Future Elderly Living Conditions in Europe (FELICIE) Research Program which has used the same approach. Our previous researches have shown the importance of future disability level for the management of an elderly society. The main output of the present paper would first produce, with new health scenarios, new estimates for Canada of elderly in poor health, for those aged 75 and over. Secondly, it would produce an interesting comparative analysis, useful especially for implementing new policies for the well-being of the Canadian elderly CC : 002B30A11 FD : Personne âgée; Santé; A domicile; Soin; Besoin; Facteur sociodémographique; Ressources humaines; Incapacité; Projection perspective; Simulation; Etude comparative; Canada; Europe FG : Homme; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Elderly; Health; At home; Care; Need; Sociodemographic factor; Human capital; Disability; Perspective projection; Simulation; Comparative study; Canada; Europe EG : Human; North America; America SD : Anciano; Salud; A domicilio; Cuidado; Necesidad; Factor sociodemográfico; Capital humano; Incapacidad; Proyección perspectiva; Simulación; Estudio comparativo; Canadá; Europa LO : BDSP/IRDES-En ligne 362/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0183847 INIST ET : Event-Driven Queue-Based Traffic Flow Microsimulation AU : CHARYPAR (David); AXHAUSEN (Kay W.); NAGEL (Kai) AF : Institute for Transport Planning and Systems, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology/Zurich/Suisse (1 aut., 2 aut.); Transport Systems Planning and Transport Telematics, Technical University of Berlin/Allemagne (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; No. 2003; Pp. 35-40; Bibl. 23 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Simulating traffic flow is an important problem in transport planning. The most popular simulation approaches for large-scale scenarios today are aggregated models. Unfortunately, these models lack temporal and spatial resolution. But microsimulations are interesting for traffic flow simulation, as they can accurately simulate features requiring both high temporal and high spatial resolution, including traffic jams and peak periods. However, most microscopic approaches involve high computational costs and expensive large computers to run them within a reasonable time. This work presents possibilities for reducing these costs by using a queue-based model and an event-driven approach jointly. The approach makes it possible to run large-scale scenarios with more than 1 million simulated person-days on networks with 10,000 links in less than 10 min on single CPU desktop computers present in most offices today. CC : 001D15B FD : Ecoulement trafic; File attente; Modèle simulation; Etude méthode; Dynamique; Description système; Outil logiciel; Résultat ED : Traffic flow; Queue; Simulation model; Method study; Dynamics; System description; Software tool; Result SD : Flujo tráfico; Fila espera; Modelo simulación; Estudio método; Dinámica; Descripción sistema; Herramienta software; Resultado LO : INIST-10459B.354000174490680050 363/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0183792 INIST ET : Dynamic Choice Model of Urban Commercial Activity Patterns of Vehicles and People AU : GLIEBE (John); COHEN (Ofir); HUNT (John Douglas) AF : School of Urban Studies and Planning, Portland State University, P.O. Box 751-USP/Portland, OR 97207-0751/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Parsons Brinckerhoff, 303 Second Street, Suite 700 North/San Francisco, CA 94107-1317/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Civil Engineering Department, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive North-west/Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4/Canada (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; No. 2003; Pp. 17-26; Bibl. 19 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Intraurban commercial vehicle travel is a relatively underdeveloped aspect of urban travel demand modeling despite the large share of the weekday traffic stream represented by commercial movements. One problem is the proprietary nature of these data and the corresponding lack of behavioral understanding of how establishments schedule their trips. Even when such data have been made available, such as through establishment travel surveys, the large variation in firm size, commodities and services, and logistics practices makes it difficult to create a generalized decision framework. This work uses establishment survey data collected by the Ohio Department of Transportation to create an intraurban commercial vehicle model to be run in a disaggregate microsimulation environment and focuses on commercial movement patterns. The model generates entire daily patterns for workers who regularly travel as part of their jobs and creates tours through a dynamic choice process that incrementally builds tours, taking into consideration elapsed time and time of day in next-stop purpose and location choices. Activity durations are embedded in the utility equations of &dquot;stay&dquot; alternatives and provide internal consistency between the dimensions of activity purpose, duration, time of day, and location. Model formulation and estimation results are presented for the dynamic activity choice model component. The model system can reproduce observed commercial travel patterns found in the survey data and provide intuitively plausible interpretations for commercial travel behavior in the absence of more detailed knowledge of individual and firm operations. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Transport routier; Véhicule utilitaire; Modélisation; Choix; Demande transport; Transport interurbain; Modèle dynamique; Affectation trafic; Formulation; Localisation ED : Road transportation; Commercial vehicle; Modeling; Choice; Transport demand; Interurban transportation; Dynamic model; Traffic assignment; Formulation; Localization SD : Transporte por carretera; Vehículo utilitario; Modelización; Elección; Demanda transporte; Transporte interurbano; Modelo dinámico; Afectación tráfico; Formulación; Localización LO : INIST-10459B.354000174490680030 364/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0183791 INIST ET : Land Use Scenario DevelopeR : Practical Land Use Model Using a Stochastic Microsimulation Framework AU : GREGOR (Brian) AF : Oregon Department of Transportation, Transportation Planning Analysis Unit, 555 13th Street Northeast, Suite 2/Salem, OR 97301-4178/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; No. 2003; Pp. 93-102; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Land use models are generally recognized as useful tools for forecasting land use inputs to transportation models and for analyzing the land use effects of transportation projects. Unfortunately, the complexity of most land use models gets in the way of their widespread use by planning agencies. The Land Use Scenario DevelopeR (LUSDR) incorporates most of the land use behavior and policy sensitivity desired in a land use model, yet it has a simple structure and manageable data requirements. LUSDR operates at the level of individual households and employment establishments and microsimulates location decisions of land developments. The model produces a synthetic population of households with the attributes of size, workers, age of household head, income, dwelling tenure, and dwelling type. Households are packaged into residential developments. Employment is calculated from workers and allocated to economic sectors, employment establishments, and business developments (e.g., shopping centers, office parks). Residential and business developments are allocated to zones by an iterative process that identifies candidate zones on the basis of land availability and plan compatibility, chooses zones by using a location model and reconciles land supply and demand in each zone through a bidding process. The model is being used in a long-range land use visioning study in a small metropolitan planning organization and is planned for use in a number of applications in Oregon. CC : 001D15B; 001D14A06; 295 FD : Transports; Occupation sol; Modèle simulation; Modèle stochastique; Zone urbaine; Planification stratégique; Plan occupation sol; Zone résidentielle; Secteur commercial ED : Transportation; Land use; Simulation model; Stochastic model; Urban area; Strategic planning; Land use plan; Residential zone; Commercial sector SD : Transportes; Ocupación terreno; Modelo simulación; Modelo estocástico; Zona urbana; Planificación estratégica; Plan ocupación suelo; Zona residencial; Sector comercial LO : INIST-10459B.354000174490680120 365/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0182574 INIST ET : Random Utility Location, Production, and Exchange Choice; Additive Logit Model; and Spatial Choice Microsimulations AU : ABRAHAM (John E.); HUNT (J. D.) AF : Institute for Advanced Policy Research, Schulich School of Engineering, University of Calgary/Calgary, Alberta, T2N 1 N4/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; No. 2003; Pp. 1-6; Bibl. 7 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A land use modeling system has been developed and applied on the basis of random utility theory. The system abstracts the decisions of the actors located in and traveling around a city or region as a series of logit models: (a) the choice of where to locate the home; (b) the choice of technology, lifestyle, or production option, being the choice of the quantities of &dquot;commodities&dquot; (consisting of goods, services, labor, and space categories) to consume or produce and hence what interactions will occur; and (c) the location of the &dquot;exchange&dquot; (transaction or interaction) for each commodity consumed or produced (i.e., for each interaction). These logit models can be combined in a nesting structure, but an additive logit formulation is required because the exchange choices are not mutually exclusive. The additive logit model, which is developed by combining the central limit theorem with random utility theory, can be applied to any choice situation in which several independent choices are conditional on a higher level choice. The resulting choice probabilities can be applied in an aggregate allocation system (as in software for the Production Exchange Consumption Allocation System, PECAS) and result in supply-and-demand equations for each commodity in each exchange that can be solved for a short-term equilibrium. In future research, microsimulation versions of the system could allow a fully integrated and dynamic representation of land use-transport interactions. CC : 001D15B FD : Economie transport; Demande transport; Modèle simulation; Modèle logit; Occupation sol; Théorie utilité; Choix; Localisation; Caractéristique dynamique ED : Economy of transports; Transport demand; Simulation model; Logit model; Land use; Utility theory; Choice; Localization; Dynamic characteristic SD : Economía transporte; Demanda transporte; Modelo simulación; Modelo logit; Ocupación terreno; Teoría utilidad; Elección; Localización; Característica dinámica LO : INIST-10459B.354000174490680010 366/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0170163 INIST ET : Tactical supply chain planning in the forest products industry through optimization and scenario-based analysis AU : BEAUDOIN (Daniel); LEBEL (Luc); FRAYRET (Jean-Marc) AF : Laboratoire d'Opérations Forestières, Faculté de Foresterie et de Géomatique, Pavillon Abitibi-Price, Université Laval/Québec, QC G1K 7P4/Canada (1 aut.); Département de Science du Bois et de la Forêt, Faculté de Foresterie et de Géomatique, Pavillon Abitibi-Price, Université Laval/Québec, QC G1K 7P4/Canada (2 aut.); Départment de mathématiques et génie industriel, École polytechnique de Montréal, 2500, chemin de Polytechnique/Montréal, QC H3T 1J4/Canada (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Canadian journal of forest research : (Print); ISSN 0045-5067; Coden CJFRAR; Canada; Da. 2007; Vol. 37; No. 1; Pp. 128-140; Abs. français; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais FA : Cet article présente un modèle qui utilise la programmation linéaire mixte pour résoudre le problème de planification tactique des approvisionnements forestiers d'une entreprise propriétaire de plusieurs usines. Le modèle permet les échanges de bois entre compagnies. Les flux de matériaux à travers le réseau d'approvisionnement sont dictés tant par la demande à satisfaire (stratégie en flux tirés) que par un mécanisme de marché (stratégie en flux poussés). Ces stratégies permettent de tenir compte de la fraîcheur du bois et de la notion de qualité associée à l'âge du bois dans les demandes de billots, de copeaux et de produits finis. L'incapacité de considérer l'implantation de plans alternatifs et la difficulté d'évaluer la performance de ces plans dans un environnement incertain sont deux points faibles d'un processus manuel de planification. Un processus de planification permettant de surmonter ces lacunes est présenté. Ce processus est basé sur les interactions entre une personne et un système d'aide à la décision. Il combine les méthodes Monte Carlo et un mécanisme d'anticipation qui permet à l'entreprise de tenir compte des coûts associés au déplacement des équipements. Le processus de planification proposé prend la forme d'un problème de prise de décision multicritère pour lequel le planificateur sélectionne un plan à implanter parmi un ensemble de plans candidats. Une étude de cas démontre qu'il est possible de gérer le flux de bois de la forêt jusqu'au marché, de manière à préserver sa fraîcheur et extraire plus de valeur des billots transformés aux usines. Aussi, les résultats d'une simulation démontrent que le processus de planification proposé permet d'augmenter les profits de 8,8 % en moyenne par rapport à une approche basée sur un modèle déterministe utilisant la valeur moyenne des paramètres. Finalement, une analyse de sensibilité révèle que la précision de l'inventaire des volumes sur pied présents sur les parterres de coupe et l'anticipation des conditions de marché sont les paramètres les plus importants pour établir un bon plan d'approvisionnement. CC : 001D10C01A FD : Entreprise industrielle; Usine bois; Approvisionnement; Logistique; Planification; Analyse multicritère; Modèle simulation; Optimisation; Simulation statistique; Produit forestier; Méthode Monte Carlo; Modèle économétrique; Modèle mixte; Prise de décision; Programmation linéaire; Système aide décision; Gestion chaîne logistique; Industrie forestière; Planification tactique; Scénario (modélisation) FG : Economie forestière; Economie industrielle; Econométrie; Filière bois; Microéconomie; Recherche opérationnelle; Foresterie; Industrie bois; Sciences économiques; Economie mathématique; Gestion système; Mathématiques appliquées; Méthode statistique; Modèle mathématique ED : Industrial firm; Wood works; Supply; Logistics; Planning; Multicriteria analysis; Simulation model; Optimization; Statistical simulation; Forest product; Supply chain management; Forest products industry; Tactical planning; Scenario (modeling) EG : Forest economics; Industrial economy; Econometrics; Wood line; Microeconomy; Operations research; Forestry; Wood industry; Economic sciences SD : Empresa industrial; Fabrica madera; Aprovisionamiento; Logística; Planificación; Análisis multicriterio; Modelo simulación; Optimización; Simulación estadística; Producto de la selva; Gestión de la cadena logística; Industria forestal; Planificación táctica; Scenario (modelización) LO : INIST-19864.354000149597470120 367/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0166598 INIST ET : Tour-based microsimulation of urban commercial movements AU : HUNT (J. D.); STEFAN (K. J.); HENSHER (David); FIGLIOZZI (Miguel Andres) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW/Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4/Canada (1 aut.); Transportation Planning Business Unit, The City of Calgary, P. 0. Box 2100, Station M/Calgary, Alberta T2P 2M5/Canada (2 aut.); Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, Faculty of Economics and Business, The University of Sydney/Australie (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part B : methodological; ISSN 0191-2615; Coden TRBMDY; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2007; Vol. 41; No. 9; Pp. 981-1013; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : A system for modelling commercial movements has been developed for Calgary in Canada. The result is a representation that is novel in this context, including a tour-based microsimulation of individual vehicle movements that provides a wide-ranging and detailed representation and yet avoids explicit consideration of shipments and the related complexities regarding the conversion of commodity flows to shipments, the allocation of shipments to vehicles or routings and the treatment of less-than-load movements and empty vehicles. This development effort drew on the data obtained in a set of surveys collecting information on the roughly 37000 tours and 185000 trips (within these tours) made in the Calgary Region by commercial vehicles on a typical weekday in 2001. The resulting system of models includes an agent-based microsimulation framework, using a tour-based approach, based on what has been learned from the data. It accounts for truck routes, responds to related policy and provides insight into aspects of commercial vehicle movements. All types of commercial vehicles are represented, including light vehicles, heavier single unit and multi-unit configurations. All sectors of the economy are incorporated, including retail, industrial, service and wholesaling. This modelling system is integrated with an aggregate equilibrium model of household-related travel, with the microsimulation processes done in external Java applications. CC : 001D15B; 001D15C FD : Transport marchandise; Modélisation; Modèle logit; Services; Véhicule utilitaire; Itinéraire; Transport urbain; Mouvement; Livraison; Canada; Producteur trafic; Type véhicule; Véhicule routier; Localisation FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Freight transportation; Modeling; Logit model; Services; Commercial vehicle; Route; Urban transportation; Motion; Delivery (good); Canada; Trip generator; Vehicle type; Road vehicle; Localization EG : North America; America SD : Transporte mercadería; Modelización; Modelo logit; Vehículo utilitario; Itinerario; Transporte urbano; Movimiento; Entrega; Canadá; Productor tráfico; Tipo vehículo; Vehículo caminero; Localización LO : INIST-12377B.354000149839780040 368/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0162408 INIST ET : Breast Cancer Screening in BRCA1 Mutation Carriers : Effectiveness of MR Imaging Markov Monte Carlo Decision Analysis AU : LEE (Janie M.); KOPANS (Daniel B.); MCMAHON (Pamela M.); HALPET (Elkan F.); RYAN (Paula D.); WEINSTEIN (Milton C.); GAZELLE (G. Scott) AF : Department of Radiology, Massachusetts General Hospital, 101 Merrimac St, 10th Floor/Boston, MA 02114/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 7 aut.); Institute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, 101 Merrimac St, 10th Floor/Boston, MA 02114/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 7 aut.); Division of Hematology/Oncology, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, 101 Merrimac St, 10th Floor/Boston, MA 02114/Etats-Unis (5 aut.); Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard School of Public Health/Boston, Mass/Etats-Unis (6 aut., 7 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Radiology; ISSN 0033-8419; Coden RADLAX; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; Vol. 246; No. 3; Pp. 763-771; Bibl. 40 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Purpose: To project intermediate and long-term clinical outcomes of magnetic resonance (MR) imaging screening for breast cancer in women with BRCA1 gene mutations. Materials and A microsimulation model was developed to compare three Methods: annual screening strategies versus clinical surveillance: (a) mammography, (b) MR imaging, and (c) combined MR imaging and mammography. Input parameters were obtained from the published medical literature, existing data-bases, and expert opinion. The model was calibrated to targets from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Resuits database (1975-1980) compiled during a period prior to the onset of widespread mammographic screening. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of uncertainty in parameter estimates. With clinical surveillance, the estimated median diameter of invasive breast cancers at presentation was 2.6 cm. Average life expectancy was 71.15 years. With annual screening with mammography, MR imaging, or combined mammography and MR imaging, median invasive tumor diameters at diagnosis decreased to 1.9,1.3, and 1.1 cm, respectively. Annual screening with mammography, MR imaging, or combined mammography and MR imaging increased average life expectancy by 0.80 year, 1.10 years, and 1.38 years, respec- 0 tively, and decreased relative mortality from breast cancer (16.8%, 17.2%, and 22.0%, respectively). Program sensitivity was greater than 50% only with MR imaging screening strategies. The majority of women undergoing screening had one or more false-positive screening examinations (53.8%, 80.2%, and 84.0% for mammography, MR imaging, and A combined mammography and MR imaging, respectively). Many women also underwent one or more biopsies for benign disease (11,3%, 26.3%, and respectively). Results were sensitive to BRCA 1 penetrance estimates and to MR imaging sensitivity in the detection of ductal carcinoma m situ. Conclusion: Annual screening with combined mammography and MR imaging provides BRCA1 mutation carriers with the greatest life expectancy gain and breast cancer mortality reduction. However, an important trade-off of this strategy is an increased rate of false-positive screening results and biopsies performed for benign disease. CC : 002B20E02; 002B28C; 002B24 FD : Cancer du sein; Imagerie RMN; Dépistage; Mutation; Analyse décision; Médecine nucléaire; Radiologie FG : Tumeur maligne; Cancer; Pathologie de la glande mammaire; Imagerie médicale; Pathologie du sein ED : Breast cancer; Nuclear magnetic resonance imaging; Medical screening; Mutation; Decision analysis; Nuclear medicine; Radiology EG : Malignant tumor; Cancer; Mammary gland diseases; Medical imagery; Breast disease SD : Cáncer del pecho; Imaginería RMN; Descubrimiento; Mutación; Análisis decisión; Medicina nuclear; Radiología LO : INIST-6163.354000183602310100 369/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0121386 INIST ET : From Aggregate Methods to Microsimulation : Assessing Benefits of Microscopic Activity-Based Models of Travel Demand AU : LEMP (Jason D.); MCWETHY (Laura B.); KOCKELMAN (Kara M.) AF : Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, 6.9 E. Cockrell Jr. Hall, University of Texas at Austin/Austin, TX 78712-1076/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; No. 1994; Pp. 80-88; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Two competing approaches to travel demand modeling exist today. The more traditional four-step travel demand models rely on aggregate demographic data at a traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level. Activity-based microsimulation methods use more robust behavioral theory while focusing on individuals and households. Although the vast majority of U.S. metropolitan planning organizations continue to rely on traditional models, many modelers believe that activity-based approaches promise greater predictive capability, more accurate forecasts, and more realistic sensitivity to policy changes. Little work has examined in detail the benefits of activity-based models relative to more traditional approaches. To understand better the trade-offs between these two methodologies, results produced by both were modeled in an Austin, Texas, application. Three scenarios are examined: a base scenario, a scenario with expanded capacity along two key freeways, and a centralized-employment scenario. Results of the analysis revealed several differences in model performance and accuracy in terms of replicating travel survey and traffic count data. Such distinctions largely emerged through differing model assumptions. In general, activity-based models were more sensitive to changes in model inputs, supporting the notion that aggregate models ignore important behavioral distinctions across the population. However, they involved more effort and care in data manipulation, model calibration, and application to mimic behavioral processes better at a finer resolution. Such efforts help ensure that synthetic populations match key criteria and that activity schedules match surveyed behaviors, while being realistic and consistent across household members. CC : 001D15B FD : Demande transport; Modèle simulation; Modèle microscopique; Activité; Modèle agrégé; Méthodologie; Scénario; Analyse donnée; Etude comparative ED : Transport demand; Simulation model; Microscopic model; Activity; Aggregate model; Methodology; Script; Data analysis; Comparative study SD : Demanda transporte; Modelo simulación; Modelo microscópico; Actividad; Modelo agregado; Metodología; Argumento; Análisis datos; Estudio comparativo LO : INIST-10459B.354000173876230110 370/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0117172 INIST ET : Does Previous Percutaneous Coronary Stenting Compromise the Long-Term Efficacy of Subsequent Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery? A Microsimulation Study AU : RAO (Christopher); DE LISLE STANBRIDGE (Rex); CHIKWE (Joanna); PEPPER (John); SKAPINAKIS (Petros); AZIZ (Omer); DARZI (Ara); ATHANASIOU (Thanos) AF : Department of Biosurgery and Surgical Technology, Imperial College London/Royaume-Uni; Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, St. Mary's Hospital/London/Royaume-Uni; Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Mount Sinai Hospital/New York, New York/Etats-Unis; Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, Royal Brompton Hospital/London/Royaume-Uni; Department of Psychiatry, University of Ioannina School of Medicine/loannina/Grèce DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : The Annals of thoracic surgery; ISSN 0003-4975; Coden ATHSAK; Etats-Unis; Da. 2008; Vol. 85; No. 2; Pp. 501-507; Bibl. 39 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background. This study aims to compare long-term survival and health-related quality of life in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery with and without previous coronary stenting. Methods. Markov microsimulation was used to model long-term survival and quality of life after surgical revascularization using data from referenced sources. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to investigate the effect of uncertainty associated with the model parameters on the microsimulation results. Results. Percutaneous coronary stenting was found to significantly decrease the effectiveness of coronary surgery. The model suggests that after a single stenting procedure ten-year survival was reduced by 3.3% (SD 0.7%), from 79.9% (SD 1.3%) to 76.6% (SD 1.4%). Similarly, after multiple stenting procedures ten-year survival was reduced by 3.5% (SD 0.7%) to 76.4% (SD 1.4%). Over a ten-year period a single stenting procedure reduced the quality adjusted life year (QALY) payoff by 0.25 QALY (SD 0.11 QALY) and multiple stenting procedures reduced the QALY payoff by 0.27 QALY (SD 0.08 QALY). Conclusions. This study suggests that patients who undergo surgical bypass after stenting have worse long-term outcomes than patients who undergo surgical revascularization without previous percutaneous intervention. The pathophysiological mechanisms for this are not fully understood and must be further investigated. The findings of this study suggest that the timing of surgical bypass in relation to percutaneous intervention is important. This may have significant implications for clinical practice, suggesting that greater emphasis should be placed on selecting the optimum initial revascularization strategy. CC : 002B11; 002B12A03; 002B27; 002B26E FD : Cardiopathie coronaire; Voie percutanée; Artère coronaire; Stent; Dilatation instrumentale; Long terme; Efficacité; Anesthésie; Appareil circulatoire; Cardiologie; Traitement instrumental; Pontage coronarien FG : Pathologie de l'appareil circulatoire; Chirurgie cardiaque ED : Coronary heart disease; Percutaneous route; Coronary artery; Stent; Instrumental dilatation; Long term; Efficiency; Anesthesia; Circulatory system; Cardiology; Instrumentation therapy; Coronary artery bypass EG : Cardiovascular disease SD : Cardiopatía coronaria; Vía percutánea; Arteria coronaria; Stent; Dilatación instrumental; Largo plazo; Eficacia; Anestesia; Aparato circulatorio; Cardiología; Tratamiento instrumental; Puente aorto coronario LO : INIST-13779.354000161916460220 371/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0095992 INIST ET : Swedish industry and Kyoto- : An assessment of the effects of the European CO2 emission trading system AU : BRÄNNLUND (Runar); LUNDGREN (Tommy) AF : Department of Forest Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences/Umed/Suède (1 aut., 2 aut.); Department of Economics, Umed University/Umed/Suède (1 aut.); Department of Business, School of Business and Economics, Umed University/Umed/Suède (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2007; Vol. 35; No. 9; Pp. 4749-4762; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : We assess the effects on Swedish industry input demands and output of different climate policy scenarios connected to energy policy induced by the Kyoto protocol. We use a unique dataset containing firm-level data on outputs and inputs between 1991 and 2001 to estimate a factor demand model, which we use to simulate different policy scenarios. Sector-specific estimation suggests that the proposed quadratic profit function specification exhibits properties and robustness that are consistent with economic theory; that is, all own-price elasticities are negative and all output elasticities are positive. Furthermore, the elasticities show that the input demands are, in most cases, relatively inelastic. Simulation of the model for six different policy scenarios reveal that effects on the Swedish base industry of a EU-level permit-trading system depends on (i) the removal or maintenance of the current CO2 tax, (ii) the price of permits, and (iii) the future price of electricity. Our analysis shows that changes in electricity price may be more important than the price of permits for some sectors. CC : 001D06A01B; 001D06A01C1; 001D00D; 230 FD : Politique énergétique; Politique environnement; Permis émission; Dioxyde de carbone; Impact économique; Secteur secondaire; Production; Emission polluant; Bénéfice; Combustible; Electricité; Investissement; Travail; Répartition coût; Scénario; Modèle économétrique; Equilibre économique; Partiel; Suède FG : Europe ED : Energy policy; Environmental policy; Emission permit; Carbon dioxide; Economic impact; Secondary sector; Production; Pollutant emission; Profit; Fuel; Electricity; Investment; Work; Cost breakdown; Script; Econometric model; Economic equilibrium; Partial; Sweden EG : Europe SD : Política energética; Política medio ambiente; Permiso de emisión; Carbono dióxido; Impacto económico; Sector secundario; Producción; Emisión contaminante; Beneficio; Combustible; Electricidad; Inversión; Trabajo; Repartición coste; Argumento; Modelo econométrico; Equilibrio económico; Parcial; Suecia LO : INIST-16417.354000161535880310 372/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0089063 INIST ET : A marginalized diffusion model for estimating age at first lower endoscopy use from current status data AU : MIGLIORETTI (Diana L.); BROWN (Elizabeth R.) AF : Group Health Center for Health Studies/Seattle/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); University of Washington/Seattle/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Applied statistics; ISSN 0035-9254; Coden APSTAG; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2008; Vol. 57; No. 1; Pp. 61-74; Bibl. 1/2 p. LA : Anglais EA : We propose an approach for estimating the age at first lower endoscopy examination from current status data that were collected via two series of cross-sectional surveys. To model the national probability of ever having a lower endoscopy examination, we incorporate birth cohort effects into a mixed influence diffusion model. We link a state-specific model to the national level diffusion model by using a marginalized modelling approach. In future research, results from our model will be used as microsimulation model inputs to estimate the contribution of endoscopy examinations to observed changes in colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. CC : 001A02H02N; 001A02G04 FD : Loi marginale; Estimation statistique; Etude transversale; Sondage statistique; Probabilité; Loi probabilité; Modèle mixte; Mortalité; Statistique; Application; 58A25 ED : Marginal distribution; Statistical estimation; Cross sectional study; Sample survey; Probability; Probability distribution; Mixed model; Mortality; Statistics; Application SD : Ley marginal; Estimación estadística; Estudio transversal; Ecuesta estadística; Probabilidad; Ley probabilidad; Modelo mixto; Mortalidad; Estadística; Aplicación LO : INIST-2097C.354000173978120040 373/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0087126 INIST ET : Cost-effective Management of Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma AU : SHRIME (Mark G.); GOLDSTEIN (David P.); SEABERG (Raewyn M.); SAWKA (Anna M.); ROTSTEIN (Lorne); FREEMAN (Jeremy L.); GULLANE (Patrick J.) AF : Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, University of Toronto Health Network/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 7 aut.); Princess Margaret Hospital/Toronto/Canada (1 aut.); Department of Endocrinology and Medicine, University of Toronto Health Network/Canada (4 aut.); Surgery, University of Toronto Health Network/Canada (5 aut.); Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Mt Sinai Hospital/Toronto, Ontario/Canada (6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Archives of otolaryngology, head & neck surgery; ISSN 0886-4470; Coden AONSEJ; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; Vol. 133; No. 12; Pp. 1245-1253; Bibl. 54 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Objective: To compare the 20-year cost-effectiveness of initial hemithyroidectomy vs total thyroidectomy in the management of small papillary thyroid cancer in the low-risk patient. Design: Pooled data from the published literature were used to determine key statistics for decision analysis such as rates of recurrence, rates of complications for all interventions undertaken, and rates of death. The 2005 costs were obtained from the US Department of Health and Human Services, as well as from Medicare reimbursement schedules. Future costs were discounted at 6%. Setting: Decision analysis study. Patients: Data from the published literature. Main Outcome Measures: A state-transition (Markov) decision model was constructed based on the most recent American Thyroid Association recommendations. A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using fixed probability estimates and Monte Carlo microsimulation, with effectiveness defined as cause-specific mortality or recurrence-free survival. After identifying initial results, sensitivity and threshold analyses were performed to assess the strength of the recommendations. Results: Initial probability estimates were determined from a review of 940 abstracts and 31 relevant studies examining outcomes in patients with low-risk thyroid cancer undergoing thyroidectomy or neck dissection. During 20 years, cost estimates (including initial surgery, follow-up, and treatment of recurrence) were between $13 896.81 and $14241.24 for total thyroidectomy and between $15037.58 and $15063.75 for hemithyroidectomy. Cause-specific mortality was similar for both treatment strategies, but recurrence-free survival was higher in the total thyroidectomy group. Sensitivity and threshold analyses demonstrated that these results were sensitive to rates of recurrence and cost of follow-up but remained robust when compared with willingness to pay. Conclusions: Total thyroidectomy dominates over hemithyroidectomy as initial treatment for low-risk papillary thyroid cancer. However, in sensitivity analyses, these results varied by institution because of heterogeneity in long-term treatment outcomes. With changing protocols of management, it is possible that hemithyroidectomy will emerge as being more cost-effective. Long-term prospective trials are necessary to validate our findings. CC : 002B10; 002B21C02; 002B21C01 FD : Carcinome papillaire de la thyroïde; Traitement; Coût; Economie santé; Facteur risque; Risque FG : Endocrinopathie; Pathologie de la thyroïde; Tumeur maligne; Cancer ED : Papillary thyroid carcinoma; Treatment; Costs; Health economy; Risk factor; Risk EG : Endocrinopathy; Thyroid diseases; Malignant tumor; Cancer SD : Carcinoma papilar de la tiroides; Tratamiento; Coste; Economía salud; Factor riesgo; Riesgo LO : INIST-3041.354000174436240090 374/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0038651 INIST ET : A longitudinal study of fallow dynamics in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) AU : KEMP (Alexander G.); KASIM (Sola A.) AF : Department of Economics, Aberdeen University School of Business, Dunbar Street, Old Aberdeen/Aberdeen AB24 3QY/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2007; Vol. 35; No. 3; Pp. 1744-1760; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper identifies the causes of and solutions to the problems posed by the fallow assets' phenomenon in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS). Using data available in the public domain, including the Fifth Fallow Release, the province's assets were grouped into two broad cross-sections of fallow and non-fallow assets, with further sub-divisions. The dependent variable of interest was the median fallow duration of the assets. Fallow duration was measured in two ways, namely those relating to censored and uncensored data. An empirical panel econometric model was formulated, estimated and simulated to establish the principal causal factors and the effective remedial policy measures. The model estimation results provide evidence that the interactive effects of the key influencing variables are stronger than their individual effects. Thus, the combined effects of reserves and distance from infrastructure have a greater weight on the fallow spell than their individual effects. Several policy simulation runs established that, contrary to some theoretical propositions, (a) stronger rather than weaker government intervention, on occasion, is preferable, and (b) price is not a central determinant of investment timing. CC : 001D06A01C2B; 230 FD : Champ pétrole; Forage; Découverte; Exploitation; Jachère; Durée; Plateforme continentale; Royaume-Uni; Modèle économétrique; Scénario; Politique financière; Simulation; Concession; Economie pétrolière FG : Europe ED : Oil field; Drilling; Discoveries; Exploitation; Fallow; Duration; Continental shelf; United Kingdom; Econometric model; Script; Financial policy; Simulation; Legal settlement; Oil economy EG : Europe SD : Campo petróleo; Sondeo; Descubierta; Explotación; Barbecho; Duración; Plataforma continental; Reino Unido; Modelo econométrico; Argumento; Política financiera; Simulación; Concesión; Economía petrolera LO : INIST-16417.354000145487300300 375/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0030091 INIST ET : Are US utility standby rates inhibiting diffusion of customer-owned generating systems? AU : JACKSON (Jerry) AF : Texas A&M University, 3137 TAMU/College Station, TX 77843/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2007; Vol. 35; No. 3; Pp. 1896-1908; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : New, small-scale electric generation technologies permit utility customers to generate some of their own electric power and to utilize waste heat for space heating and other applications at the building site. This combined heat and power (CHP) characteristic can provide significant energy-cost savings. However, most current US utility regulations leave CHP standby rate specification largely to utility discretion resulting in claims by CHP advocates that excessive standby rates are significantly reducing CHP-related savings and inhibiting CHP diffusion. The impacts of standby rates on the adoption of CHP are difficult to determine; however, because of the characteristically slow nature of new technology diffusion. This study develops an agent-based microsimulation model of CHP technology choice using cellular automata to represent new technology information dispersion and knowledge acquisition. Applying the model as an n-factorial experiment quantifies the impacts of standby rates on CHP technologies under alternative diffusion paths. Analysis of a sample utility indicates that, regardless of the likely diffusion process, reducing standby rates to reflect the cost of serving a large number of small, spatially clustered CHP systems significantly increases the adoption of these technologies. CC : 001D06A01C4; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Production autonome énergie; Production énergie électrique; Production combinée; Echelle petite; Secteur domestique; Pénétration marché; Obstacle; Compagnie électricité; Système avec réserve; Etats-Unis; Modèle simulation FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : On site energy production; Electric power production; Cogeneration; Small scale; Residential sector; Market penetration; Obstacle; Electric utility; Standby system; United States; Simulation model EG : North America; America SD : Producción autónoma energía; Producción energía eléctrica; Producción combinada; Escala pequeña; Sector doméstico; Penetración mercado; Obstáculo; Compañía electricidad; Sistema con reserva; Estados Unidos; Modelo simulación LO : INIST-16417.354000145487300420 376/793 NO : PASCAL 08-0014469 INIST ET : Microsimulation of freeway ramp merging processes under congested traffic conditions AU : SARVI (Majid); KUWAHARA (Masao) AF : Institute of Transport Studies, Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University/Clayton, Vic. 3800/Australie (1 aut.); Kuwahara Laboratory, Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo/Tokyo 153-8505/Japon (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : IEEE Transactions on intelligent transportation systems; ISSN 1524-9050; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; Vol. 8; No. 3; Pp. 470-479; Bibl. 42 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper describes a microsimulation program developed to study freeway ramp merging phenomena under congested traffic conditions. The results of extensive macroscopic and microscopic studies are used to establish a model for the behavior of merging drivers. A theoretical framework for modeling the ramp and freeway lag driver acceleration-deceleration behavior guided the model development. This methodology uses the stimuli-response psychophysical concept as a fundamental rule and is formulated as a modified form of the conventional car-following models. Data collected at the two merging points are used to calibrate the hypothesized ramp and freeway lag vehicle acceleration models. Drawing on this behavioral model, the Freeway Merging Capacity Simulation Program (FMCSP) is developed to simulate actual traffic conditions. This model evaluates the capacity of a merging section for a given geometric design and flow condition. Validation of FMCSP is performed using the observed flow, vehicle trajectories, and lane-changing maneuvers. The simulation model is applied to investigate a variety of merging strategies. The results indicated that the FMCSP is capable of simulating the actual traffic conditions of congested freeway ramp merging sections and will aid in the development of traffic management strategies for complex freeway ramp merging areas. CC : 001D15A; 001D02D11 FD : Automobile; Trajectoire; Analyse comportementale; Autoroute; Trafic routier; Condition opératoire; Modèle comportement; Psychophysiologie; Modélisation; Poursuite modèle; Programme simulation; Modèle géométrique; Validation; Gestion trafic ED : Motor car; Trajectory; Behavioral analysis; Freeway; Road traffic; Operating conditions; Behavior model; Psychophysiology; Modeling; Model following; Simulation program; Geometrical model; Validation; Traffic management SD : Automóvil; Trayectoria; Análisis conductual; Autopista; Tráfico carretera; Condición operatoria; Modelo comportamiento; Psicofisiología; Modelización; Seguimiento modelo; Programa simulación; Modelo geométrico; Validación; Gestión tráfico LO : INIST-27061.354000149790180080 377/793 NO : FRANCIS 08-0507792 PRODIG-INTERGEO ET : Size matters : the role of scale in geographies of health. Special section AU : PROCTER (K.L.); SMITH (D.M.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Area (London); ISSN 0004-0894; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2008; Vol. 40; No. 3; Pp. 303-364; Abs. anglais; Bibl. dissem.; fig., tabl. LA : Anglais FA : Cinq articles. 1. Signification de l'intérêt personnel dans la géographie de l'invalidité (N. Worth). 2. Le comportement alimentaire des enfants : importance de l'institution familiale (N. Kime). 3. Micro-analyse de l'obésité chez l'enfant, régime alimentaire, activité physique, variables socio-économiques résidentielles et de capital social : où se trouvent les environnements propices à l'obésité à Leeds ? (K.L. Procter, G.P. Clarke, J.K. Ransley, J. Cade). 4. Géographie du tabagisme à Leeds : estimation des taux individuels de tabagisme et implications pour la localisation des services pour arrêter de fumer (M.N. Tomintz, G.P. Clarke, J.E. Rigby). 5. Etude de l'accès à des services de généralistes dans l'Irlande rurale : analyse de microsimulation (K. Morrissey, G. Clarke et alii) CC : 531103; 531 FD : Santé; Géographie médicale; Echelle; Invalidité; Alimentation; Obésité; Tabagisme; Comportement; Services de santé; Royaume-Uni ED : Health; Medical geography; Scale; Disability; Food; Behaviour; Medical services; United Kingdom LO : INTG 378/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0532444 INIST ET : Impacts of bus rapid transit lanes on traffic and commuter mobility AU : PATANKAR (Vaishali M.); KUMAR (Rakesh); TIWARI (Geetam) AF : Scholar/Gainesville, FL/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Univ. of Petroleum and Energy Studies/Dehradun/Inde (2 aut.); Dept. of Civil Engineering, Transportation Research and Injury Prevention Programme, Indian Institute of Technology/Delhi/Inde (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of urban planning and development; ISSN 0733-9488; Coden JUPDDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; Vol. 133; No. 2; Pp. 99-106; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : Implementing bus rapid transit (BRT) raises many challenging issues of technical, operational, and institutional nature. The present study sets the groundwork for a methodology that can be used to selectively target corridor for BRT modeling in India. Traffic quality parameters, such as traffic flow, speed, travel time, delay time, stop time, and fuel consumption, were modeled to investigate the impact of BRT as compared to present day mixed traffic on traffic and commuter mobility. A microsimulation traffic model was developed for BRT and mixed traffic systems. A developed microscopic model was validated with field measured data using statistical methods and was found good against measured data. A dedicated lane-based public transport system shows the promising results and has to play a significant role in developing sustainable transport systems. These findings can be used to form the basis for developing public transport corridor in present Indian traffic conditions. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier urbain; Gestion trafic; Autobus; Inde; Evaluation projet; Implémentation; Méthodologie; Modèle simulation; Analyse statistique; Transport public; Transport privé; Bicyclette FG : Asie ED : Urban road traffic; Traffic management; Bus; India; Project evaluation; Implementation; Methodology; Simulation model; Statistical analysis; Public transportation; Private transportation; Bicycle EG : Asia SD : Tráfico vial urbano; Gestión tráfico; Autobus; India; Evaluación proyecto; Implementación; Metodología; Modelo simulación; Análisis estadístico; Transporte público; Transporte prívado; Bicicleta LO : INIST-572T.354000149641760030 379/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0524234 INIST ET : Combining microsimulation and spatial interaction models for retail location analysis AU : NAKAYA (Tomoki); FOTHERINGHAM (A. Stewart); HANAOKA (Kazumasa); CLARKE (Graham); BALLAS (Dimitris); YANO (Keiji) AF : Department of Geography, Ritsumeikan University/Kyoto/Japon (1 aut., 3 aut., 6 aut.); National Centre for Geocomputation, John Hume Building, National University of Ireland-Maynooth/Maynooth, Kildare/Irlande (2 aut.); School of Geography, University of Leeds/Leeds LS2 9JT/Royaume-Uni (4 aut.); Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Winter Street/Sheffield S10 2TN/Royaume-Uni (5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of geographical systems; ISSN 1435-5930; Allemagne; Da. 2007; Vol. 9; No. 4; Pp. 345-369; Bibl. 1 p.3/4 LA : Anglais EA : Although the disaggregation of consumers is crucial in understanding the fragmented markets that are dominant in many developed countries, it is not always straightforward to carry out such disaggregation within conventional retail modelling frameworks due to the limitations of data. In particular, consumer grouping based on sampled data is not assured to link with the other statistics that are vital in estimating sampling biases and missing variables in the sampling survey. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a useful combination of spatial interaction modelling and microsimulation approaches for the reliable estimation of retail interactions based on a sample survey of consumer behaviour being linked with other areal statistics. We demonstrate this approach by building an operational retail interaction model to estimate expenditure flows from households to retail stores in a local city in Japan, Kusatsu City. CC : 001E01J02; 224B02 FD : Modèle; Fragment; Marché; Statistique; Echantillonnage; Levé; Bâtiment; Segmentation; Japon FG : Extrême Orient; Asie ED : models; fragments; markets; statistics; sampling; surveys; buildings; segmentation; Japan EG : Far East; Asia SD : Modelo; Fragmento; Mercado; Estadística; Muestreo; Edificio; Japón LO : INIST-26950.354000161716890020 380/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0497369 INIST ET : An optimal downsampling procedure for microscopic simulation modeling of transportation networks : a proof-of-concept study AU : ALECSANDRU (Ciprian); ISHAK (Sherif); YAN ZHANG AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Louisiana State University/Baton Rouge, LA 70803/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); DMJM+HARRIS, 2833 Brakley Dr., Suite B/Baton Rouge, LA 70816/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Canadian journal of civil engineering : (Print); ISSN 0315-1468; Coden CJCEB8; Canada; Da. 2007; Vol. 34; No. 1; Pp. 89-98; Abs. français; Bibl. 3/4 p. LA : Anglais FA : Cet article étudie et démontre le concept de variabilité dimensionnelle des systèmes de microsimulation de la circulation comme moyen de réduire les exigences computationnelles requises et maximiser leur soutien potentiel pour les fonctions de contrôle et de gestion de la circulation en temps réel. L'objectif principal de cette recherche est d'examiner la faisabilité de transformer l'environnement de simulation original en un environnement de simulation sous-échantillonné, dans lequel moins d'entités représentatives sont simulées. Cela doit cependant être réalisé en maintenant un maximum de fidélité aux propriétés de microsimulation et en préservant la majorité des caractéristiques macroscopiques. La méthodologie est présentée sous forme d'un problème d'optimisation dont l'objectif est de minimiser les erreurs découlant du processus de transformation et de rechercher les valeurs optimales des paramètres comportementaux dans un environnement sous-échantillonné. À cette étape de validation de concept, une analyse expérimentale a été effectuée sur un segment d'autoroute homogène en utilisant l'un des modèles bien connus, et on pourrait dire suffisamment étalonné, de suivi des véhicules développé par les laboratoires de General Motors (GM3). Les résultats sont prometteurs et indiquent que des relations optimales entre les paramètres comportementaux dans les deux environnements peuvent être établies pour minimiser la perte d'information associée au processus de transformation. CC : 001D14O01; 001D14C03; 295 FD : Réseau transport; Modélisation; Optimisation; Sous échantillonnage; Modèle simulation; Extensibilité; Efficacité; Méthodologie; Modèle mathématique; Formulation; Etude expérimentale; Valeur efficace; Analyse sensibilité; Performance; Suivi de véhicule ED : Transportation network; Modeling; Optimization; Subsampling; Simulation model; Scalability; Efficiency; Methodology; Mathematical model; Formulation; Experimental study; Root mean square value; Sensitivity analysis; Performance; Car following SD : Red transporte; Modelización; Optimización; Submuestreo; Modelo simulación; Estensibilidad; Eficacia; Metodología; Modelo matemático; Formulación; Estudio experimental; Valor eficaz; Análisis sensibilidad; Rendimiento LO : INIST-16748.354000149597540090 381/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0494834 INIST ET : Generation of synthetic sequences of electricity demand : Application in South Australia AU : MAGNANO (L.); BOLAND (J. W.) AF : Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes Boulevard, Mawson Lakes/Adelaide, South Australia 5095/Australie (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy : (Oxford); ISSN 0360-5442; Coden ENEYDS; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2007; Vol. 32; No. 11; Pp. 2230-2243; Bibl. 22 ref. LA : Anglais EA : We have developed a model to generate synthetic sequences of half-hourly electricity demand. The generated sequences represent possible realisations of electricity load that could have occurred. Each of the components included in the model has a physical interpretation. These components are yearly and daily seasonality which were modelled using Fourier series, weekly seasonality modelled with dummy variables, and the relationship with current temperature described by polynomial functions of temperature. Finally the stochastic component was modelled with autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes. These synthetic sequences were developed for two purposes. The first one is to use them as input data in market simulation software. The second one is to build probability distributions of the outputs to calculate probabilistic forecasts. As an application several summers of half-hourly electricity demand were generated and from them the value of demand that is not expected to be exceeded more than once in 10 years was calculated. CC : 001D06A01C4; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Electricité; Australie Méridionale; Demande; Variation saisonnière; Température; Modèle économétrique; Série Fourier; Modèle ARMA; Analyse régression; Prévision; Vérification modèle; Demi-heure FG : Australie; Océanie ED : Electricity; South Australia; Demand; Seasonal variation; Temperature; Econometric model; Fourier series; ARMA model; Regression analysis; Forecasting; Model checking EG : Australia; Oceania SD : Electricidad; Australia meridional; Petición; Variación estacional; Temperatura; Modelo econométrico; Serie Fourier; Modelo ARMA; Análisis regresión; Previsión; Verificación modelo LO : INIST-16809.354000149796460180 382/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0485470 INIST ET : Residential energy demand : a case study of Kuwait AU : ELTONY (M. Nagy); AL-AWADHI (Mohammad A.) AF : Department of the Industrial Bank of Kuwait/Koweït (1 aut.); Public Authority for Applied Education and Training/Inconnu (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : OPEC review; ISSN 0277-0180; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2007; Vol. 31; No. 3; Pp. 159-168; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper models and estimates energy demand by the household sector using the top-down or the two-level approach. The discussion has been developed to include a breakdown of household consumption by fuel type. It also simulates the developed model under three scenarios and presents analyses of the results. The empirical results indicate that short and long run energy consumption and the level of economic activity are interrelated. The model simulation shows that energy consumption varies directly with economic growth. It also illustrates that an increase of 200 per cent in all nominal energy prices will lead to a reduction in household energy demand of 29 per cent by the year 2015. The simulation results clearly demonstrate that the potential for energy conservation exists in Kuwait in the household sector and particularly in the consumption of electricity. Moreover, inter-fuel substitution will be in favour of electricity when energy prices increase. CC : 001D06A01C4; 001D06A01C2B; 001D06A01B; 230 FD : Consommation énergie; Secteur domestique; Koweit; Electricité; Produit pétrolier; Consommation électricité; Consommation combustible; Modèle économétrique; Prévision; Demande énergie; Long terme; Scénario; Fixation prix; GPL; Kérosène FG : Asie ED : Energy consumption; Residential sector; Kuwait; Electricity; Petroleum product; Electric power consumption; Fuel consumption; Econometric model; Forecasting; Energy demand; Long term; Script; Pricing; LPG; Kerosene EG : Asia SD : Consumo energía; Sector doméstico; Kuwayt; Electricidad; Producto petrolero; Consumo electricidad; Consumo combustible; Modelo econométrico; Previsión; Demanda energía; Largo plazo; Argumento; Fijación precios; GPL; Queroseno LO : INIST-19312.354000161658550010 383/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0439891 INIST ET : Modeling and calculating the effect of treatment at baseline from panel outcomes AU : CHIB (Siddhartha); JACOBI (Liana) AF : John M. Olin School of Business, Campus Box 1133, Washington University in St. Louis, 1 Brookings Dr/St. Louis, MO 63130/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne/Victoria 3010/Australie (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2007; Vol. 140; No. 2; Pp. 781-801; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : We propose and examine a panel data model for isolating the effect of a treatment, taken once at baseline, from outcomes observed over subsequent time periods. In the model, the treatment intake and outcomes are assumed to be correlated, due to unobserved or unmeasured confounders. Intake is partly determined by a set of instrumental variables and the confounding on unobservables is modeled in a flexible way, varying both by time and treatment state. Covariate effects are assumed to be subject-specific and potentially correlated with other covariates. Estimation and inference is by Bayesian methods that are implemented by tuned Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Because our analysis is based on the framework developed by Chib [2004. Analysis of treatment response data without the joint distribution of counterfactuals. Journal of Econometrics, in press], the modeling and estimation does not involve either the unknowable joint distribution of the potential outcomes or the missing counterfactuals. The problem of model choice through marginal likelihoods and Bayes factors is also considered. The methods are illustrated in simulation experiments and in an application dealing with the effect of participation in high school athletics on future labor market earnings. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02H02G; 001A02H01J; 001A02I01Q FD : Méthode stochastique; Distribution statistique; Théorie approximation; Analyse numérique; Sciences économiques; Efficacité traitement; Analyse corrélation; Covariable; Estimation statistique; Estimation Bayes; Implémentation; Chaîne Markov; Méthode Monte Carlo; Analyse donnée; Loi conjointe; Fonction répartition; Modèle économétrique; Econométrie; Donnée manquante; Loi marginale; Simulation; Marché travail; Méthode statistique; Donnée économique; 62F15; 60J10; 65C40; 62E17; 65C05; 62-07; 60E05; 62P20; Estimation paramétrique; Effet traitement; Donnée panel; Variable instrumentale; Vraisemblance marginale ED : Stochastic method; Statistical distribution; Approximation theory; Numerical analysis; Economics; Treatment efficiency; Correlation analysis; Covariate; Statistical estimation; Bayes estimation; Implementation; Markov chain; Monte Carlo method; Data analysis; Joint distribution; Distribution function; Econometric model; Econometrics; Missing data; Marginal distribution; Simulation; Labour market; Statistical method; Economic data; Treatment effect; Panel data; Instrumental variable; Marginal likelihood SD : Método estocástico; Distribución estadística; Análisis numérico; Ciencias económicas; Eficacia tratamiento; Análisis correlación; Covariable; Estimación estadística; Estimación Bayes; Implementación; Cadena Markov; Método Monte Carlo; Análisis datos; Ley conjunta; Función distribución; Modelo econométrico; Econometría; Dato que falta; Ley marginal; Simulación; Mercado trabajo; Método estadístico; Dato económico LO : INIST-16460.354000150064150170 384/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0434032 INIST ET : Usefulness of microsimulation to translate valve performance into patient outcome : Patient prognosis after aortic valve replacement with the Carpentier-Edwards supra-annular valve AU : VAN GELDORP (Martijn W. A.); ERIC JAMIESON (W. R.); PIETER KAPPETEIN (A.); PUVIMANASINGHE (John P. A.); EIJKEMANS (Marinus J. C.); GRUNKEMEIER (Gary L.); TAKKENBERG (Johanna J. M.); BOGERS (Ad J. J. C.) AF : Department of Cardio-thoracic Surgery, Erasmus University Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 7 aut., 8 aut.); University of British Columbia/Vancouver/Canada (2 aut.); Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (5 aut.); Providence Health System/Portland, Ore/Etats-Unis (6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of thoracic and cardiovascular surgery; ISSN 0022-5223; Coden JTCSAQ; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; Vol. 134; No. 3; Pp. 702-709; Bibl. 27 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Objective: Numerous reports have been published documenting the results of aortic valve replacement. It is often not easy to translate these outcomes involving the condition of the valve into the actual consequences for the patient. We previously developed an alternative method to study outcome after aortic valve replacement that allows direct estimation of patient outcome after aortic valve replacement: microsimulation modeling. The goal of this article is to provide insight into microsimulation methodology and to give an overview of the advantages and disadvantages of simulation methods (in particular microsimulation) in comparison with standard methods of outcome analysis. Methods: By using a primary dataset containing 1847 patients and 14,429 patient-years, advantages and disadvantages of standard methods of outcome analysis are discussed, and the potential role of microsimulation is illustrated by means of a step-by-step explanation of building, testing, and using such a model. Results: Total life expectancy, event-free life expectancy, and reoperation-free life expectancy for a 65-year-old male patient were 10.6 years, 9.2 years, and 9.8 years, respectively. Lifetime risk of reoperation due to structural valve deterioration was 13.3%. Conclusions: Microsimulation is capable of providing accurate estimates of age-related life expectancy and lifetime risk of reoperation for patients who underwent aortic valve replacement with the Carpentier-Edwards supra-annular valve. It provides a useful tool to facilitate and optimize the choice for a specific heart valve prosthesis in a particular patient. CC : 002B25E FD : Soupape; Evaluation performance; Performance; Homme; Malade; Evolution; Pronostic; Valvule aortique; Chirurgie; Valvule cardiaque; Coeur; Thorax; Traitement ED : Valve; Performance evaluation; Performance; Human; Patient; Evolution; Prognosis; Aortic valve; Surgery; Heart valve; Heart; Thorax; Treatment SD : Válvula; Evaluación prestación; Rendimiento; Hombre; Enfermo; Evolución; Pronóstico; Válvula aórtica; Cirugía; Válvula cardíaca; Corazón; Tórax; Tratamiento LO : INIST-9747.354000160833710240 385/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0431030 INIST ET : Should hemodialysis patients with atrial fibrillation undergo systemic anticoagulation? A cost-utility analysis AU : QUINN (Robert R.); NAIMARK (David M. J.); OLIVER (Matthew J.); BAYOUMI (Ahmed M.) AF : Department of Medicine, Division of Nephrology, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, University of Toronto/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.); Medicine and Health Policy Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto/Canada (2 aut., 4 aut.); Chronic Dialysis, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael Hospital, University of Toronto/Toronto/Canada (3 aut.); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, The Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael Hospital, University of Toronto/Toronto/Canada (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : American journal of kidney diseases; ISSN 0272-6386; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; Vol. 50; No. 3; Pp. 421-432; Bibl. 40 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: Approximately 14% of hemodialysis patients have atrial fibrillation. Hemodialysis patients with atrial fibrillation appear to be at increased risk of both thromboembolic complications and bleeding. Furthermore, there is uncertainty regarding the efficacy of warfarin or acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) therapy for preventing strokes in this subgroup because they were excluded from relevant trials. Study Design: We performed a cost-utility analysis. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to incorporate parameter uncertainty into the model. Expected value of perfect information and scenario analyses were performed to identify the important drivers of the decision and focus future research. Setting & Population: Base case was a 60-year-old male hemodialysis patient in the United States. Model, Perspective, & Time Frame: A Markov Monte Carlo microsimulation model was constructed from the perspective of the health care payer, and patients were followed up during their lifetime. Intervention: We compared 3 alternative treatment strategies for permanent atrial fibrillation in hemodialysis patients: warfarin, ASA, or no treatment. Outcomes: Quality-adjusted survival and cost. Results: ASA and warfarin both prolonged survival compared with no treatment (0.06 and 0.15 quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs], respectively). ASA was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $82,100/QALY. Warfarin provided additional benefits at a cost of $88,400 for each QALY gained relative to ASA. At a threshold of $100,000/QALY, the probabilities that no treatment, warfarin, and ASA were the most efficient therapy were 20%, 58%, and 23%, respectively. Limitations: Parameterization data and costs were taken from US studies and may not be generalizable to other countries. Peritoneal dialysis patients were not included in the analysis. Conclusions: The high future cost of hemodialysis constrains incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to values greater than commonly cited thresholds ($50,000/QALY). Based on available evidence, warfarin appears to be the optimal therapy to prevent thromboembolic stroke in hemodialysis patients with atrial fibrillation. Additional study is required to determine the efficacy of warfarin and risk of bleeding complications in this population so that patients can make a more informed choice. CC : 002B14; 002B27B03 FD : Hémodialyse; Homme; Fibrillation auriculaire; Disséminé; Systémique; Anticoagulant; Traitement; Analyse coût efficacité; Economie santé; Warfarine; Urologie; Néphrologie FG : Epuration extrarénale; Appareil circulatoire pathologie; Cardiopathie; Trouble excitabilité; Trouble rythme cardiaque; Antivitamine K; Coumarine dérivé ED : Hemodialysis; Human; Atrial fibrillation; Disseminated; Systemic; Anticoagulant; Treatment; Cost efficiency analysis; Health economy; Warfarin; Urology; Nephrology EG : Extrarenal dialysis; Cardiovascular disease; Heart disease; Excitability disorder; Arrhythmia; Antivitamin K; Coumarine derivatives SD : Hemodiálisis; Hombre; Fibrilación auricular; Diseminado; Sistémico; Anticoagulante; Tratamiento; Análisis costo eficacia; Economía salud; Warfarina; Urología; Nefrología LO : INIST-19098.354000149741000080 386/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0417180 INIST FT : Evaluation économique de règles de traitement sélectif au tarissement selon les contextes épidémiologiques de santé des mamelles en troupeaux laitiers : étude par simulation ET : (Assessment of economic worth of rules for selective drying-off treatment according to the udder health epidemiological context of dairy cow herds : a simulation study) AU : SEEGERS (H.); ROBERT (A.); BILLON (D.); ROUSSEL (P.); SERIEYS (F.); LE GUENIC (M.); BAUDET (H.); HEUCHEL (V.); BAREILLE (N.) AF : UMR 708 ENVN-INRA Gestion de la Santé Animale, BP 40706/44307 Nantes/France (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 9 aut.); ARILAIT Recherches, 42 rue de Chateaudun 42 rue de Châteaudun/75314 Paris/France (2 aut.); Institut de l'Elevage, 9 rue André Brouard, BP 70510/49105 Angers/France (4 aut., 8 aut.); Filière Blanche, 12 Quai Duguay Trouin/35000 Rennes/France (5 aut.); Chambres d'Agriculture de Bretagne, Technopôle Atalante-Champeaux, CS 14226/35042 Rennes/France (6 aut.); Contrôle Laitier Sarthe, C.L.A.S.E.L. 72, 126 rue de Beauge/72018 Le Mans/France (7 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Rencontres recherches ruminants; ISSN 1279-6530; France; Da. 2006; No. 13; Pp. 435-438; Abs. anglais; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Français FA : [...] Un modèle bio-économique de simulation de troupeau laitier a été adapté pour évaluer des stratégies et règles de choix des vaches traitées sous différents contextes épidémiologiques. Le modèle est dynamique, stochastique (pour simuler l'occurrence et les effets des infections intra-mammaires), individu-centré et mécaniste (représentation de tous les individus). Les résultats présentés ici montrent que, pour des situations plutôt fortement dégradées avec prédominance d'infections par Staphyloccocus aureus ou Streptococcus, les stratégies de traitements sélectif avec une règle de traitement à partir de 100 000 cellules/ml au dernier contrôle laitier ou combinant une règle à 150 000 cellules/ml avec l'application d'un obturateur pour les vaches non traitées constituent des alternatives a priori économiquement neutres ou intéressantes par rapport au traitement systématique et compatibles avec la réduction de l'emploi d'antibiotiques.[...] CC : 002A36C03 FD : Vache; Bovin laitier; Troupeau; Glande mammaire; Santé animale; Mastite; Epidémiologie; Etat sanitaire; Epoque traitement; Modalité traitement; Règle décision; Règle sélection; Sélectivité; Impact économique; Analyse microéconomique; Evaluation; Simulation numérique; France; Approche mécaniste; Modélisation; Modèle économétrique; Modèle simulation; Modèle dynamique; Modèle phénoménologique; Modèle stochastique; Antibiotique; Lait vache; Staphylococcus aureus; Streptococcus; Période de tarissement FG : Boeuf; Artiodactyla; Ungulata; Mammalia; Vertebrata; Europe; Animal ruminant; Bovin; Herbivore; Animal élevage; Animal laitier; Femelle; Population animale; Glande mammaire pathologie; Analyse économique; Biomathématique; Econométrie; Economie agricole; Modèle mathématique; Production animale; Zoopathogène; Europe Ouest; Zone tempérée; Médecine vétérinaire; Zootechnie; Sciences animales ED : Cow; Dairy cattle; Herd; Mammary gland; Animal health; Mastitis; Epidemiology; Health status; Application time; Application method; Decision rule; Selection rule; Selectivity; Microeconomic analysis; Evaluation; Numerical simulation; France; Simulation model; Dry period (lactation) EG : Ox; Artiodactyla; Ungulata; Mammalia; Vertebrata; Europe; Ruminant animal; Farming animal; Dairy animal; Mammary gland diseases; Agricultural economics; Veterinary medicine; Zootechny; Animal sciences SD : Vaca; Ganado de leche; Rebaño; Glándula mamaria; Sanidad animal; Mastitis; Epidemiología; Estado sanitario; Epoca tratamiento; Modalidad tratamiento; Regla decisión; Regla selección; Selectividad; Análisis microeconómico; Evaluación; Simulación numérica; Francia; Modelo simulación; Período de secado (lactación) LO : INIST-26072.354000153549711930 387/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0395565 INIST ET : Cost-effectiveness of bone densitometry followed by treatment of osteoporosis in older men AU : SCHOUSBOE (John T.); TAYLOR (Brent C.); FINK (Howard A.); KANE (Robert L.); CUMMINGS (Steven R.); ORWOLL (Eric S.); MELTON (L. Joseph III); BAUER (Douglas C.); ENSRUD (Kristine E.) AF : Park Nicollet Health Services, University of Minnesota/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Divisions of Health Policy and Management, University of Minnesota/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 4 aut.); Center for Chronic Disease Outcomes Research/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 3 aut., 9 aut.); Epidemiology, University of Minnesota/Etats-Unis (3 aut., 9 aut.); Geriatric Research Education and Clinical Center/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Department of Medicine, Veterans Administration Medical Center/Minneapolis, Minnesota/Etats-Unis (3 aut., 9 aut.); School of Public Health, and Clinical Outcomes Research Center, University of Minnesota/Etats-Unis (4 aut.); San Francisco Coordinating Center, California Pacific Medical Center Research Institute/Etats-Unis (5 aut.); Department of Medicine, Oregon Health Sciences University/Portland/Etats-Unis (6 aut.); Division of Epidemiology, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine/Rochester, Minnesota/Etats-Unis (7 aut.); Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, University of California at San Francisco/San Francisco/Etats-Unis (8 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : JAMA, the journal of the American Medical Association; ISSN 0098-7484; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; Vol. 298; No. 6; Pp. 629-637; Bibl. 61 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Context Osteoporotic fractures are common among elderly men. Objective To evaluate among older men the cost-effectiveness of bone densitometry followed by 5 years of oral bisphosphonate therapy to prevent fractures for those found to have osteoporosis (femoral neck T score <-2.5), compared with no intervention. Design, Setting, and Population Computer Markov microsimulation model using a societal perspective and a lifetime horizon. Simulations were performed for hypothetical cohorts of white men aged 65, 70, 75, 80, or 85 years, with or without prior clinical fracture. Data sources for model parameters included the Rochester Epidemiology Project for fracture costs and population-based age-specific fracture rates; the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study and published meta-analyses for the associations among prior fractures, bone density, and incident fractures; and published studies of fracture disutility. Main Outcome Measures Costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for the densitometry and follow-up treatment strategy compared with no intervention, calculated from lifetime costs and accumulated QALYs for each strategy. Results Lifetime costs per QALY gained for the densitometry and follow-up treatment strategy were less than $50 000 for men aged 65 years or older with a prior clinical fracture and for men aged 80 years or older without a prior fracture. These results were most sensitive to oral bisphosphonate cost and fracture reduction efficacy, the strength of association between bone mineral density and fractures, fracture rates and disutility, and medication adherence. Conclusions Bone densitometry followed by bisphosphonate therapy for those with osteoporosis may be cost-effective for men aged 65 years or older with a self-reported prior clinical fracture and for men aged 80 to 85 years with no prior fracture. This strategy may also be cost-effective for men as young as 70 years without a prior clinical fracture if oral bisphosphonate costs are less than $500 per year or if the societal willingness to pay per QALY gained is $100 000. CC : 002B01; 002B15A FD : Ostéoporose; Analyse coût efficacité; Economie santé; Traitement; Homme; Mâle; Personne âgée; Médecine; Ostéodensitométrie FG : Système ostéoarticulaire pathologie ED : Osteoporosis; Cost efficiency analysis; Health economy; Treatment; Human; Male; Elderly; Medicine; Osteodensitometry EG : Diseases of the osteoarticular system SD : Osteoporosis; Análisis costo eficacia; Economía salud; Tratamiento; Hombre; Macho; Anciano; Medicina; Osteodensitometría LO : INIST-5051.354000146644120040 388/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0385328 INIST ET : Spatial microsimulation modelling for retail market analysis at the small-area level AU : HANAOKA (Kazumasa); CLARKE (Graham P.) AF : Department of Geography, Ritsumeikan University, 56-1, Toji-in Kitamachi/Kita-ku, Kyoto 603-8577/Japon (1 aut.); School of Geography, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane/Leeds LS2 9JT/Royaume-Uni (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Computers, environment and urban systems; ISSN 0198-9715; Coden CEUSD5; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2007; Vol. 31; No. 2; Pp. 162-187; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : The purpose of this study is to construct a spatial microsimulation model known as the spatial microsimulation approach for retail market analysis (SMARMA) in order to analyse the retail market at the small-area level in Kusatsu City, Shiga Prefecture, Japan. In this study, we focus on examining the following issues. First, we attempt to create synthetic household microdata from a consumer questionnaire survey using both reweighting and imputation approaches. Second, we present the manner in which the results of the spatial microsimulation model are used for market analysis with regard to grocery stores. Market shares, turnover ranking and detailed consumer characteristics for selected stores are examined. In particular, the spatial distributions of households and their shopping behaviour are discussed in order to identify variations in consumer characteristics. As a result, this study shows that a spatial microsimulation model can generate detailed and reliable synthetic microdata from a consumer questionnaire survey. Besides, it is confirmed that this model is a highly relevant approach for implementing market analysis at the small-area level. CC : 001D14A06; 001D14I04C; 001D14C03; 295 FD : Zone urbaine; Magasin commercial; Répartition spatiale; Japon; Modèle simulation; Analyse spatiale; Vente au détail; Etude marché; Ménage; Recuit simulé; Ville; Comportement; Enquête; Questionnaire FG : Asie ED : Urban area; Store; Spatial distribution; Japan; Simulation model; Spatial analysis; Retail marketing; Market survey; Household; Simulated annealing; Town; Behavior; Survey; Questionnaire EG : Asia SD : Zona urbana; Tienda comercial; Distribución espacial; Japón; Modelo simulación; Análisis espacial; Venta menudeo; Estudio mercado; Familia; Recocido simulado; Ciudad; Conducta; Encuesta; Cuestionario LO : INIST-20192.354000143373570060 389/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0379563 INIST ET : Cost effectiveness of adalimumab for the treatment of ankylosing spondylitis in the United Kingdom AU : BOTTEMAN (M. F.); HAY (J. W.); LUO (M. P.); CURRY (A. S.); WONG (R. L.); VAN HOUT (B. A.) AF : Pharmerit North America LLC/Bethesda, MD/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); University of Southern California/Los Angeles, CA/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Abbott Laboratories/Abbott Park, IL/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Abbott Laboratories/Berks/Royaume-Uni (4 aut.); Abbott Laboratories/Parsippany, NJ/Etats-Unis (5 aut.); University Medical Centre Utrecht/Utrecht/Pays-Bas (6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Rheumatology : (Oxford. Print); ISSN 1462-0324; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2007; Vol. 46; No. 8; Pp. 1320-1328; Bibl. 33 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Objectives. This study evaluated the cost effectiveness of adalimumab vs conventional therapy in patients with active ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Methods. The analysis was based on pooled data from two Phase III studies of adalimumab in active AS. Patients with an inadequate response to ≥1 NSAID received adalimumab 40 mg every other week (n = 246) or placebo (n = 151) for 24 weeks. A microsimulation model was developed with patients being treated with adalimumab according to the International ASAS Consensus Statement and BSR guidelines. The pooled adalimumab data, as well as data from the Outcome Assessment in AS International Study (OASIS) database and the literature, were used to model patients' BASDAI and BASFI scores and costs and health-related quality of life associated with various degrees of disease activity. Costs (in 2004 British £) of AS, drug, administration, monitoring, hospitalization and AEs were calculated from the perspective of the UK NHS. Discounting was applied at 3.5% per year for costs and benefits as per the NICE reference case for economic evaluations. Uncertainty was addressed via sensitivity analyses. Results. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of adalimumab vs conventional therapy was estimated to improve with longer time horizons (48 weeks to 5 and 30 yrs). The central estimate was that, over 30 yrs, adalimumab therapy yielded 1.03 more quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per patient initiating therapy. Some AS treatment-related costs were estimated to be offset by adalimumab (at £10750/ patient), leaving a total incremental cost (adalimumab vs conventional therapy) at £23857 per patient. The 30-yr ICER of adalimumab vs conventional therapy was estimated at £23 097/QALY. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated robustness of results. When indirect costs were also included (analysis from societal perspective), ICER improved to £5093/QALY. Conclusions. This analysis indicates that adalimumab, when used according to UK treatment guidelines, is cost-effective vs conventional therapy for treating AS patients. CC : 002B15D; 002B02Q; 002B15F FD : Adalimumab; Coût; Traitement; Spondylarthrite ankylosante; Royaume Uni; Facteur nécrose tumorale; Antagoniste; Qualité; Immunomodulateur; Antipsoriasique; Chronique FG : Europe; Economie santé; Anticorps monoclonal; Anticytokine; Facteur nécrose tumorale &agr;; Rachis pathologie; Rhumatisme inflammatoire; Spondylarthropathie; Système ostéoarticulaire pathologie; Santé publique; Cytokine; Anti-TNF-alpha ED : Adalimumab; Costs; Treatment; Ankylosing spondylitis; United Kingdom; Tumor necrosis factor; Antagonist; Quality; Immunomodulator; Antipsoriatic agent; Chronic EG : Europe; Health economy; Monoclonal antibody; Anticytokine; Tumor necrosis factor &agr;; Spine disease; Inflammatory joint disease; Spondylarthropathy; Diseases of the osteoarticular system; Public health; Cytokine SD : Adalimumab; Coste; Tratamiento; Espondiloartritis anquilosante; Reino Unido; Factor necrosis tumoral; Antagonista; Calidad; Inmunomodulador; Antipsoriásico; Crónico LO : INIST-14528.354000149972590210 390/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0377363 INIST ET : Infrastructure and firm dynamics : Calibration of microsimulation model for firms in the Netherlands AU : DE BOK (Michiel); BLIEMER (Michiel C. J.) AF : Department of Transport and Planning, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048/2600 GA Delft/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; No. 1977; Pp. 132-144; Bibl. 32 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Firm location is an important component in integrated land use and transport models. However, representation of firm behavior and firm locations is often too aggregated to model firm behavior adequately. A calibrated simulation approach that models dynamics in the firm population at the level of individual firms is presented. A number of firm demographic events and transitions in the state of individual firms are simulated: firm migration, growth, formation, and dissolution. This provides the opportunity to account for firm-specific behavior and allows a large variety in responses to changes in urban environment. The model quantifies the effects of different spatial and transport planning scenarios on firm population and mobility. Moreover, the firm-level simulation output provides improved possibilities to evaluate the impact of spatial scenarios. It can be linked to an urban transport model to obtain a dynamic simulation of urban development and mobility. The model specification is presented, as well as the calibration of the individual firm demographic processes. The behavior of the calibrated model is verified with multiple test runs. CC : 001D14A06; 001D15A; 295 FD : Occupation sol; Choix site; Entreprise; Transports; Pays Bas; Modèle comportement; Modèle simulation; Modèle dynamique; Démographie; Etalonnage; Scénario FG : Europe ED : Land use; Site selection; Firm; Transportation; Netherlands; Behavior model; Simulation model; Dynamic model; Demography; Calibration; Script EG : Europe SD : Ocupación terreno; Elección sitio; Empresa; Transportes; Holanda; Modelo comportamiento; Modelo simulación; Modelo dinámico; Demografía; Contraste; Argumento LO : INIST-10459B.354000145601230160 391/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0377352 INIST ET : Application of travel demand microsimulation model for equity analysis AU : CASTIGLIONE (Joe); HIATT (Rachel); CHANG (Tilly); CHARLTON (Billy) AF : PB Consult, Inc., 75 Arlington Street, 4th Floor/Boston, MA 02116/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); San Francisco County Transportation Authority, 100 Van Ness Avenue, 25th Floor/San Francisco, CA 94102/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; No. 1977; Pp. 35-42; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper describes the application of a state-of-the-art, tour-based travel demand microsimulation model to estimate impact on mobility and accessibility on different populations to support development of a countywide transportation plan. Equity analyses based on traditional travel demand forecast models are compromised by aggregation biases and data availability limitations. Use of the disaggregate (individual person-level) San Francisco, California, tour-based microsimulation model made it possible to estimate benefits to and impact on different communities of concern on the basis of individual characteristics, such as gender, income, automobile availability, and household structure. The concepts and policy context of equity analysis in transportation are presented. Identifying communities of concern and relevant measures of transportation system performance are outlined. The San Francisco model structure is described, and the results of the equity analysis are presented. CC : 001D15A FD : Transports; Demande transport; Modèle simulation; Equité; Application; Voyage; Mobilité; Accessibilité; Californie; Indicateur; Démographie; Choix modal; Méthode analyse FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Transport demand; Simulation model; Equity; Application; Travel; Mobility; Accessibility; California; Indicator; Demography; Modal choice; Analysis method EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transportes; Demanda transporte; Modelo simulación; Equidad; Aplicación; Viaje; Movilidad; Accesibilidad; California; Indicador; Demografía; Elección modal; Método análisis LO : INIST-10459B.354000145601230050 392/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0345250 BDSP FT : Les prestations sociales et l'offre de travail : y a-t-il une trappe à l'inactivité ? AU : MARGOLIS (D.); STARZEC (C.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : ECONOMIE PUBLIQUE - ETUDES ET RECHERCHE; France; Da. 2005-02; No. 17; Pp. 71-120; Bibl. dissem.; tabl., ann. LA : Français FA : Ce papier évalue la pertinence de l'argument qui suggère que la générosité de l'aide sociale en France pourrait engendrer une sorte de trappe à inactivité - certains individus préfèrent rester hors du monde du travail - subsistant sur l'assistance fournie par la collectivité, plutôt que d'essayer d'occuper un emploi salarié. Nous utilisons les techniques de microsimulation pour l'évaluation des différences du revenu disponible qui résultent de l'application du barème socio-fiscal à la suite du changement de statut d'activité. Notre approche repose sur l'hypothèse que la décision de travailler dépend du gain net attendu de l'emploi compte tenu de la probabilité d'en trouver un. Le gain net d'activité (GNA) est défini comme la différence entre les revenus d'activité et les revenus de transferts en cas d'inactivité. Le GNA est traité comme l'un des déterminants de la décision de se porter sur le marché de travail dans un modèle de participation. L'élasticité de la probabilité d'être actif par rapport à ce gain est interprétée comme une mesure de risque d'une trappe à inactivité. L'analyse économétrique du comportement d'activité face à GNA conduit à la conclusion que son effet incitatif, assimilable à l'existence d'une trappe à inactivité, est de faible importance. Il est identifiable uniquement dans le cas de la spécification linéaire, dans les ménages comportant un seul adulte. Dans les spécifications préférées (non linéaires), son effet incitatif n'est pas retrouvé. Nous concluons que certains ménages vont se porter sur le marché de travail et d'autres non sans que l'influence de l'environnement socio-fiscal de ménage apparaisse comme un élément déterminant dans la prise de décision de travailler même pour l'ensemble des ménages à faibles revenus potentiels de travail CC : 002B30A11 FD : Salaire; Emploi; Ménage; Statut socioéconomique; France; Simulation FG : Europe ED : Wage; Employment; Household; Socioeconomic status; France; Simulation EG : Europe SD : Salario; Empleo; Familia; Estatuto socioeconómico; Francia; Simulación LO : BDSP/IRDES-P192, CODBAR 0055272 393/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0327239 INIST ET : Developing a statewide travel demand model from a person-based time series household survey AU : THOMPSON-GRAVES (Scott); DUROSS (Mike); RATLEDGE (Edward C.); RACCA (David P.) AF : Requardt & Associates, LLP, 107 French Lane/Zelienople, PA 16063/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Delaware Department of Transportation, P.O. Box 778/Dover, DE 19903/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); College of Urban Affairs and Public Policy, University of Delaware, 286 Oraham Hall/Newark, DE 19711/Etats-Unis (3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; No. 1981; Pp. 68-75; Bibl. 7 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Balancing the funding needs of data collection and model development is a recurring problem for state departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations throughout the country. To address this problem, the Delaware Department of Transportation (DelDOT) and the University of Delaware have developed an innovative and cost-effective person-based time series household survey that has been conducted annually since 1995. The survey diverges from traditional household travel diary surveys in that it is a telephone survey that collects detailed demographic information on all household members but collects trip information from only one randomly selected household member. While the survey costs between 20% and 50% less than a typical household travel diary survey and greatly reduces nonresponse bias, this survey poses two complications. The first is that household trip generation rates must be synthesized if trip productions are to be estimated on the basis of household cross-classification tables; the second is that the data must be normalized to represent a data set for a single year. A description is provided of the procedure by which this survey was used to perform a major update of DelDOT's statewide travel demand model in 2003. The survey was relied on to provide key information in the first three steps of the four-step travel demand modeling process. This survey method has the potential for widespread application, particularly for microsimulation models, which would not require the household synthesis step. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Demande transport; Enquête; Ménage; Série temporelle; Analyse coût efficacité; Delaware; Producteur trafic; Analyse donnée; Méthode calcul; Choix modal FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Transport demand; Survey; Household; Time series; Cost efficiency analysis; Delaware; Trip generator; Data analysis; Computing method; Modal choice EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transportes; Demanda transporte; Encuesta; Familia; Serie temporal; Análisis costo eficacia; Delaware; Productor tráfico; Análisis datos; Método cálculo; Elección modal LO : INIST-10459B.354000145449030100 394/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0327234 INIST ET : Advanced activity-based models in context of planning decisions AU : VOVSHA (Peter); BRADLEY (Mark) AF : Parsons Brinckerhoff Inc., 5 Penn Plaza, 19th Floor/New York, NY 10001/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Mark Bradley Research & Consulting, 524 Arroyo Avenue/Santa Barbara, CA 93109/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; No. 1981; Pp. 34-41; Bibl. 12 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Travel demand modeling today is undergoing a transition from the conventional four-step models to a new generation of advanced activity-based models. The new generation of travel models is characterized by such distinctive features as the use of tours Instead of trips as the base unit of travel, the generation of travel in the framework of daily activity agendas of individuals, and the use of fully disaggregate microsimulation techniques instead of the aggregate zonal calculations. Although the theoretical advantages of activity-based models-in particular, behavioral realism and consistency across all travel dimensions-are well known, the practical advantages in the context of planning decisions have rarely been discussed and documented. Experiences to date are summarized for application of activity-based models for various planning purposes in metropolitan regions of New York City; Columbus, Ohio; Atlanta, Georgia; San Francisco, California; and Montreal, Canada. The focus is on the practical planning questions and policies that were analyzed with these models and their relative strengths and advanced features compared with the four-step models. The planning questions and policies include congestion pricing schemes, high-occupancy-vehicle facilities, parking policy, testing impacts of demographic scenarios, and so on. It is shown that activity-based models are capable of treating these planning and policy issues at the level at which four-step models become inadequate. CC : 001D15B; 001D15C FD : Transports; Modélisation; Planification; Activité; Demande transport; Retour expérience; Ville; Etats Unis; Canada; Fixation prix; Congestion trafic; Stationnement; Démographie; Occupation sol FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Modeling; Planning; Activity; Transport demand; Experience feedback; Town; United States; Canada; Pricing; Traffic congestion; Parking; Demography; Land use EG : North America; America SD : Transportes; Modelización; Planificación; Actividad; Demanda transporte; Retorno experiencia; Ciudad; Estados Unidos; Canadá; Fijación precios; Congestión tráfico; Estacionamiento; Demografía; Ocupación terreno LO : INIST-10459B.354000145449030050 395/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0327233 INIST ET : Analysis of new starts project by using tour-based model of San Francisco, California AU : FREEDMAN (Joel); CASTIGLIONE (Joe); CHARLTON (Billy) AF : Systems Analysis Group, PBConsult, 400 SW Sixth Avenue, Suite 802/Portland, OR 97204/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Systems Analysis Group, PBConsult, 75 Arlington Street, 9th Floor/Boston, MA 02116/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); San Francisco County Transportation Authority, 100 Van Ness Avenue, 25th Floor/San Francisco, CA 94102/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; No. 1981; Pp. 24-33; Bibl. 6 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Activity-based models are increasingly attractive as alternatives to traditional trip-based travel demand forecasting models because of growing dissatisfaction with the internal consistency, aggregation bias, and lack of detail of trip-based approaches. New policy analysis requirements demand that forecasting models represent travel choices and the contexts in which these travel choices are made with ever-increasing geographic, temporal, and behavioral detail. Activity-based models can incorporate this detail and can provide decision makers with more precise insights into potential outcomes of transportation and land use investment and development strategies. The model of San Francisco, California, is a tour-based microsimulation model that forecasts daily activity patterns for individual San Francisco residents and has been used in transportation planning practice since 2000. The San Francisco model uses the daily activity pattern approach, first introduced by Bowman and Ben-Akiva, within a disaggregate microsimulation framework. This paper describes an application of the San Francisco model to the proposed new Central Subway project in downtown San Francisco. This is the first application of an activity-based travel demand model in the United States to a major infrastructure project in support of a submission to FTA for project funding through the New Starts program. To enable the submittal of a New Starts request, software was developed to collapse the microsimulation output of the tour and trip mode choice models into a format compatible with the FTA SUMMIT program. SUMMIT was then successfully used to summarize and analyze user benefits accruing to the project and to prepare an acceptable New Starts submittal. CC : 001D15B; 001D15D FD : Transports; Modèle prévision; Demande transport; Californie; Evaluation projet; Itinéraire; Choix modal; Activité; Métropolitain FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Forecast model; Transport demand; California; Project evaluation; Route; Modal choice; Activity; Subways EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transportes; Modelo previsión; Demanda transporte; California; Evaluación proyecto; Itinerario; Elección modal; Actividad; Metropolitano LO : INIST-10459B.354000145449030040 396/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0327217 INIST ET : Simple method of predicting travel speed on urban arterial streets for planning applications AU : TARKO (Andrew P.); CHOOCHARUKUL (Kasem); BHARGAVA (Abhishek); SINHA (Kumares C.) AF : School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, 550 Stadium Mall Drive/West Lafayette, IN 47907/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, Chulalongkom University/Bangkok 10330/Thaïlande (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; No. 1988; Pp. 48-55; Bibl. 12 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Travel speed is a key measure of effectiveness in evaluating urban arterials. The Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) methodology of predicting speeds along urban streets requires complex calculations and input not typically available in long-range planning. The use of default values is therefore necessary. This paper demonstrates that a simple and practical method of estimating travel speed along urban arterial streets is possible. An equation derived from the HCM delay formula and calibrated with the results obtained from CORSIM, a microsimulation model, is proposed. The equation requires neither signal characteristics nor detailed traffic and geometry information about arterial intersections. The proposed model of travel speed along urban arterials uses only input available to planners. The model is evaluated with the results obtained from a field study in Lafayette, Indiana. Despite its limited scope of input and simple structure, the model properly replicates the trends found in the field. The model overestimates the actual speeds by 18%, and a simple adjustment factor removes the bias. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O02; 295 FD : Trafic routier urbain; Modèle prévision; Vitesse déplacement; Planification; Efficacité; Réseau routier; Méthode calcul; Méthode analytique; Simulation; Etalonnage; Expérimentation; Etude sur terrain; Indiana FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Urban road traffic; Forecast model; Speed; Planning; Efficiency; Road network; Computing method; Analytical method; Simulation; Calibration; Experimentation; Field study; Indiana EG : United States; North America; America SD : Tráfico vial urbano; Modelo previsión; Velocidad desplazamiento; Planificación; Eficacia; Red carretera; Método cálculo; Método analítico; Simulación; Contraste; Experimentación; Estudio en campo; Indiana LO : INIST-10459B.354000145447880060 397/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0326672 INIST ET : Modeling water resources management at the basin level : methodology and application to the Maipo river basin AU : CAI (Ximing); RINGLER (Claudia); ROSEGRANT (Mark W.) AF : Institut international de recherche sur les politiques alimentaires/Washington DC/Etats-Unis DT : Publication en série; Niveau monographique SO : Research report - International Food Policy Research Institute; ISSN 0886-7372; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; Vol. 149; ; Pp. 1 vol. (XVII, 151 p.); Abs. anglais; Bibl. Bibliogr. p. 147-151; fig. LA : Anglais EA : With increasing competition for water across sectors and regions, the river basin has been recognized as the appropriate unit of analysis for addressing the challenges of water resources management. Modeling at this scale can provide essential information for policymakers in their resource allocation decisions. A river basin system is made up of water source components, instream and off-stream demand components, and intermediate (treatment and recycling) components. The river basin is thus characterized by natural and physical processes but also by human-made projects and management policies. The essential relations within each component and the interrelations among these components in the basin can be represented in an integrated modeling framework. Integrated hydrologic and economic models are well equipped to assess water management and policy issues in a river basin setting. McKinney et al. (1999) reviewed state-of-the-art modeling approaches to integrated water resources management at the river basin scale. Based on that review, this report describes the methodology and application of an integrated hydrologic-economic river basin model. Today we are faced largely with a &dquot;mature&dquot; water economy (Randall 1981), and most research is conducted with an explicit recognition of and focus on the need to cope with resource limits. Research has focused on a multitude of situations that might be presented in a mature water economy. Much work has been motivated by expanding municipal and industrial demands within a context of static or more slowly growing agricultural demand. More recently, expanding instream environmental demands have been added. On the supply side, conjunctive use of groundwater has been considered in addition to simple limits on surface water availability. In addition, some researchers have worked on waterlogging and water quality effects (primarily salinity). The work presented in this report examines a &dquot;complex&dquot; water economy : one in which demands grow differentially not only within but also among sectors, and one in which limited opportunities for increasing consumptive use exist. In particular, the growth of high-value irrigated crop production (such as table grapes) within the case study basin (the Maipo River Basin in Chile), together with the rapidly growing urban area, provides a rich context in which to examine the general problem of basin-level water resources management. The methodology presented is optimization with embedded simulation. Basinwide simulation of flow and salinity balances and crop growth are embedded with the optimization of water allocation, reservoir operation, and irrigation scheduling. The modeling framework is developed based on a river basin network, including multiple source nodes (reservoirs, aquifers, river reaches, and so on) and multiple demand sites along the river, including consumptive use locations for agricultural, municipal and industrial, and instream water uses. CC : 002A32C03B FD : Compétition; Prix marché; Bassin fluvial; Gestion ressource eau; Méthodologie; Allocation ressource; Bassin versant; Efficacité utilisation eau; Irrigation; Chili; Modèle hydraulique; Modèle économétrique; Aide décision FG : Amérique du Sud; Amérique ED : Competition; Market price; River basins; Water resource management; Methodology; Resource allocation; Watershed; Water use efficiency; Irrigation; Chile; Hydraulic model; Econometric model; Decision aid EG : South America; America SD : Competencia; Cuenca fluvial; Gestión recurso agua; Metodología; Asignación recurso; Cuenca; Eficacia utilización agua; Irrigación; Chile; Modelo hidraúlico; Modelo econométrico; Ayuda decisión LO : INIST-22501.354000159177770000 398/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0325265 INIST ET : Determination of optimal detector location for transit signal priority with queue jumper lanes AU : GUANGWEI ZHOU; GAN (Albert); XIAOXIA ZHU AF : Lehman Center for Transportation Research, Florida International University, 10555 West Flagler Street, EC 3680/Miami, FL 33174/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; No. 1978; Pp. 123-129; Bibl. 6 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Transit signal priority (TSP) is an operational strategy that facilitates movement of transit vehicles through signalized intersections. As an important component of a TSP system, the transit vehicle detection system plays a key role in determining when to trigger TSP and which TSP strategy to use. This paper presents an analytical method to determine optimal detector locations for intersections implemented with TSP and queue jumper lanes. A queue Jumper lane is a preferential treatment for buses that designates a short stretch of a special lane, such as a right-turn bay, to allow buses to bypass a traffic queue and then to proceed ahead of the queue by means of an early green signal for that lane. In this study, a comprehensive TSP strategy was used that considers early green, green extension, special phase insertion, coordination recovery, green reimbursement, and maximum number of continuous TSP requests. An analytical method for determining optimal detector locations under this TSP strategy for different bus arrival conditions was proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed method was verified with the VISSIM microsimulation model, and results show that the method is able to identify optimal bus detector locations for TSP with queue Jumper lanes. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Détecteur; Optimisation; Traitement signal; Localisation; Priorité; File attente; Voie circulation; Stratégie; Contrôleur trafic; Méthode analytique; Simulation ED : Road traffic; Detector; Optimization; Signal processing; Localization; Priority; Queue; Traffic lane; Strategy; Traffic controller; Analytical method; Simulation SD : Tráfico carretera; Detector; Optimización; Procesamiento señal; Localización; Prioridad; Fila espera; Vía tráfico; Estrategia; Supervisor tráfico; Método analítico; Simulación LO : INIST-10459B.354000145551560150 399/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0325086 INIST ET : Cost-effectiveness of different reading and referral strategies in mammography screening in the Netherlands AU : GROENEWOUD (J. H.); OTTEN (J. D. M.); FRACHEBOUD (J.); DRAISMA (G.); VAN INEVELD (B. M.); HOLLAND (R.); VERBEEK (A. L. M.); DE KONING (H. J.) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, P.O. Box 2040/3000 CA Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 8 aut.); Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre/Nijmegen/Pays-Bas (2 aut., 7 aut.); Institute for Medical Technology Assessment, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (5 aut.); National Expert and Training Centre for Breast Cancer Screening/Nijmegen/Pays-Bas (6 aut., 7 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Breast cancer research and treatment; ISSN 0167-6806; Coden BCTRD6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2007; Vol. 102; No. 2; Pp. 211-218; Bibl. 22 ref. LA : Anglais EA : In mammography screening with double reading, different strategies can be used when the readers give discordant recommendations for referral. We investigated whether the results of the Dutch breast cancer screening programme can be optimised by replacing the standard referral strategy by consensus. Twenty-six screening radiologists independently and blinded to outcome read a test set consisting of previous screening mammograms of 250 cases (screen-detected and interval cancers) and 250 controls. Their referral recommendations were paired and, in case of discrepancy, re-read according to three referral strategies: (1) decision by one of the readers; (2) arbitration by a third reader; (3) referral if both readers agree (consensus). Data allowed studying other referral strategies, including referral if any reader suggests, as well. Double reading with referral if any reader suggests resulted in a 1.03 times higher sensitivity (76.6%) and a 1.31 times higher referral rate (1.26%) than double reading with consensus. To estimate the cost-effectiveness, the outcomes were used in a microsimulation model. Even if double reading with referral if any reader suggests results in four times as high referral rates and an accompanying increase of biopsies or other invasive procedures, the cost-effectiveness of?4,190 per life-year gained may well be in the range of acceptable cost-effectiveness for Dutch health care programmes. CC : 002B20E02 FD : Economie santé; Analyse coût efficacité; Mammographie; Pays Bas; Criblage; Dépistage; Cancer du sein FG : Europe; Tumeur maligne; Glande mammaire pathologie; Radiodiagnostic ED : Health economy; Cost efficiency analysis; Mammography; Netherlands; Screening; Medical screening; Breast cancer EG : Europe; Malignant tumor; Mammary gland diseases; Radiodiagnosis SD : Economía salud; Análisis costo eficacia; Mastografía; Holanda; Cernido; Descubrimiento; Cáncer de pecho LO : INIST-20699.354000149916740090 400/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0323485 INIST ET : MCMC maximum likelihood for latent state models AU : JACQUIER (Eric); JOHANNES (Michael); POLSON (Nicholas) AF : CIRANO, CIREQ, HEC Montréal, 3000 Cote Sainte-Catherine/Montréal, QC H3T 2A7/Canada (1 aut.); Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, 3022/Broadway, NY 10027/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, 5807 South Woodlawn/Chicago, IL 60637/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2007; Vol. 137; No. 2; Pp. 615-640; Bibl. 1 p.1/2 LA : Anglais EA : This paper develops a pure simulation-based approach for computing maximum likelihood estimates in latent state variable models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Our MCMC algorithm simultaneously evaluates and optimizes the likelihood function without resorting to gradient methods. The approach relies on data augmentation, with insights similar to simulated annealing and evolutionary Monte Carlo algorithms. We prove a limit theorem in the degree of data augmentation and use this to provide standard errors and convergence diagnostics. The resulting estimator inherits the sampling asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood. We demonstrate the approach on two latent state models central to financial econometrics : a stochastic volatility and a multivariate jump-diffusion models. We find that convergence to the MLE is fast, requiring only a small degree of augmentation. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02H01J; 001A02I01Q; 001A02H02F FD : Chaîne Markov; Méthode Monte Carlo; Finance; Maximum vraisemblance; Simulation; Fonction vraisemblance; Calcul automatique; Modèle variable latente; Modèle Markov; Algorithme; Méthode gradient; Recuit simulé; Théorème limite; Estimation erreur; Convergence; Méthode optimisation; Comportement asymptotique; Modèle économétrique; Analyse multivariable; Diffusion saut; Méthode statistique; Analyse donnée; Propriété asymptotique; Volatilité stochastique ED : Markov chain; Monte Carlo method; Finance; Maximum likelihood; Simulation; Likelihood function; Computing; Latent variable model; Markov model; Algorithm; Gradient method; Simulated annealing; Limit theorem; Error estimation; Convergence; Optimization method; Asymptotic behavior; Econometric model; Multivariate analysis; Jump diffusion; Statistical method; Data analysis; Stochastic volatility SD : Cadena Markov; Método Monte Carlo; Finanzas; Maxima verosimilitud; Simulación; Función verosimilitud; Cálculo automático; Modelo variable latente; Modelo Markov; Algoritmo; Método gradiente; Recocido simulado; Teorema límite; Estimación error; Convergencia; Método optimización; Comportamiento asintótico; Modelo econométrico; Análisis multivariable; Difusión salto; Método estadístico; Análisis datos LO : INIST-16460.354000145321060130 401/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0316522 INIST ET : Estimating the effects of traffic congestion on fuel consumption and vehicle emissions based on acceleration noise AU : GREENWOOD (I. D.); DUNN (R. C. M.); RAINE (R. R.) AF : Opus International Consultants, P.O. Box 5848, Wellesley St/Auckland 1036/Nouvelle-Zélande (1 aut.); Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Auckland, Private Bag 92-019/Auckland/Nouvelle-Zélande (2 aut.); Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Univ. of Auckland, Private Bag 92-019/Auckland/Nouvelle-Zélande (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; Vol. 133; No. 2; Pp. 96-104; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : While significant progress has occurred in quantifying congestion costs within the sphere of traffic engineering, little progress has been made to incorporate such costs into network-level highway evaluation systems. The model presented in this paper takes a middle ground approach between the highly detailed microsimulation approach that is most appealing to the traffic engineer and the traditional highway development engineers' approach of ignoring traffic congestion. The approach adopted is based on modeling of acceleration noise, defined as the standard deviation of accelerations. During periods of high traffic congestion, there is a greater variability in speed, resulting in higher acceleration noise levels. Data collection and analysis have been undertaken on highways in Auckland (New Zealand), Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia), and Bangkok (Thailand). This updated approach (relative to the original HDM-4 research in 1995) has been integrated with the International Study of Highway Development and Management Tools in order to provide an updated model HDM-4 (Highway Development and Management version 4). Fuel consumption predictions were tested both with and without the impact of a simulated acceleration noise level. For the latter of the two (i.e., a given drive cycle) the predictions were within 0.25%. For a generated drive cycle, the results show a consistent underprediction of some 25%. It is believed that this underprediction is largely due to the assumption of the acceleration noise data conforming to a normal distribution. While not prescribed in detail within this paper, vehicle emission models were also developed as part of the work with the results of tests presented. Vehicle emissions of carbon dioxide and hydrocarbons were within the range of the seven vehicles observed. Carbon monoxide and oxides of nitrogen were grossly underpredicted and were below the minimum observed values. These latter results are thought to be caused by the fuel model not predicting rich operating conditions during periods of high acceleration. The model presented, even with the preceding limitations, still has wide application in improving the prediction of vehicles operating on highways in congested conditions. In particular, the model presented provides a much improved predictive ability over those of traditional speed-flow approaches, where errors as high as 200% for passenger cars (higher for trucks) are observed. This makes the approach highly appropriate for inclusion into highway evaluation procedures such as HDM-4. The patterns of fuel consumption and emissions show the appropriate changes in relation to traffic congestion. Furthermore, the model framework readily lends itself to enhancement via adoption of new submodels. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Analyse coût; Congestion trafic; Consommation carburant; Emission polluant; Etude théorique; Bruit trafic; Accélération; Etude comparative; Modèle simulation ED : Road traffic; Cost analysis; Traffic congestion; Motor fuel consumption; Pollutant emission; Theoretical study; Traffic noise; Acceleration; Comparative study; Simulation model SD : Tráfico carretera; Análisis costo; Congestión tráfico; Consumo carburante; Emisión contaminante; Estudio teórico; Ruido tráfico; Aceleración; Estudio comparativo; Modelo simulación LO : INIST-572E.354000145377250040 402/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0308704 INIST ET : A model endeavor AU : ALEXIADIS (Vassili); COLYAR (James); HALKIAS (John) AF : Cambridge Systematics, Inc/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.); FHWA Office of Operations Research and Development/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); FHWA's Office of Transportation Management in the Office of Operations/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Public roads; ISSN 0033-3735; Coden PUROAQ; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; Vol. 70; No. 4; Pp. 2-5 LA : Anglais EA : A public-private partnership is working to improve traffic microsimulation technology. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Modèle simulation; Gestion trafic; Caméra; Image numérique; Evaluation projet; Etats Unis; Simulation ordinateur; Autoroute; Algorithme FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Simulation model; Traffic management; Movie camera; Digital image; Project evaluation; United States; Computer simulation; Freeway; Algorithm EG : North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Modelo simulación; Gestión tráfico; Cámara; Imagen numérica; Evaluación proyecto; Estados Unidos; Simulación computadora; Autopista; Algoritmo LO : INIST-4140.354000159583590010 403/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0303189 INIST ET : Modeling signalized intersections near highway-railroad grade crossings : Sensitivity analyses of key design parameters AU : CHO (Hanseon); RILETT (Laurence R.) AF : Korea Transport Institute, 2311, Daehwa-Dong, Ilsan-Gu/Goyang-Si, Gyeonggi-Do, 411-701/Corée, République de (1 aut.); Mid-America Transportation Center, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Nebraska, W348 Nebraska Hall, P.O. Box 880531/Lincoln, NE 68588-0531/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; No. 1973; Pp. 149-156; Bibl. 12 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Many roadway intersections throughout North America are located near highway-railroad grade crossings (IHRGCs). Numerous safety, operational, and legal challenges are associated with IHRGCs; and these become significantly more complex when traffic signals are present. Because of the complexity of traffic operations at IHRGCs, existing macroscopic analysis approaches are not suitable for in-depth analyses. Consequently, a more detailed methodology for the analysis of intersections with traffic signals located near IHRGCs was developed. The approach is microsimulation based and relies on hardware-in-the-loop architecture to model the traffic signal controller. To demonstrate the methodology, sensitivity analyses of key design parameters were undertaken, and their impacts on safety and delay were analyzed. Specifically, (a) the maximum train speed and the corresponding length of the detector,16) the effect of the pedestrian volume, and (c) the effect of the addition of an additional upstream train detector were examined in terms of safety and delay at the IHRGC. The methodology was tested with empirical data from a test bed in College Station, Texas. It was found that the manner in which the maximum train speed was calculated could have a statistically significant effect on delay and a detrimental effect on safety. It was also shown that the addition of an additional upstream detector could reduce delay and increase safety. CC : 001D15C; 001D15D; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Trafic ferroviaire; Modélisation; Intersection; Passage à niveau; Analyse sensibilité; Vitesse déplacement; Feu signalisation; Conception; Essai en place; Texas; Trafic piéton; Sécurité trafic FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Rail traffic; Modeling; Intersection; Grade crossing; Sensitivity analysis; Speed; Traffic lights; Design; In situ test; Texas; Pedestrian traffic; Traffic safety EG : United States; North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Tráfico ferroviario; Modelización; Intersección; Paso a nivel; Análisis sensibilidad; Velocidad desplazamiento; Semáforo; Diseño; Ensayo en sitio; Texas; Tráfico peatones; Seguridad tráfico LO : INIST-10459B.354000145385900180 404/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0294292 BDSP ET : A microsimulation model of private sector pensions in France AU : DEBRAND (T.); PENNEC (S.); PRIVAT (A.G.); GUPTA (A.); HARDING (A.) AF : DT : Livre; Niveau analytique SO : Modelling our future : population ageing social security and taxation; Royaume-Uni; Elsevier; Da. 2007; Pp. 55-80 LA : Anglais CC : 002B30A11 FD : Retraite; Personne âgée; Age; Secteur privé; Population; Sénescence; Prospective; Modèle économétrique; Projection perspective; France; Simulation FG : Homme; Europe ED : Retirement; Elderly; Age; Private sector; Population; Senescence; Prospective; Econometric model; Perspective projection; France; Simulation EG : Human; Europe SD : Jubilación; Anciano; Edad; Sector privado; Población; Senescencia; Prospectiva; Modelo econométrico; Proyección perspectiva; Francia; Simulación LO : BDSP/IRDES-R1661 405/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0294283 BDSP FT : (Modéliser notre futur : Sécurité sociale et politique fiscale des personnes âgées) ET : Modelling our future : population ageing social security and taxation AU : FLOOD (L.); DEBRAND (T.); PENNEC (S.); PRIVAT (A.G.); et al.; GUPTA (A.); HARDING (A.) AF : DT : Congrès; Niveau monographique SO : International Microsimulation Conference on Population Social Security and Taxation : Modelling Our Future/2007/NLD; Pays-Bas; Amsterdam: Elsevier; Da. 2007; Pp. Pagination mult.[543 p.] LA : Anglais EA : The issues associated with population ageing are already assuming prominence in most OECD countries. Many governments are extremely concerned about the likely impact of population ageing upon future government outlays and economic growth. In Australia, for example, there have already been two major government reports that have attempted to quantify the likely implications for government spending of population ageing. These reports have concluded that there will either have to be cuts in current government programs, increases in taxes or some combination of these. The ageing population will also require more health human resources (doctors, nurses, pharmacists etc.), in an environment where the existing workforce itself is ageing. Economic growth is forecast to slow significantly in future decades due to population ageing, reducing government ? s ability to rely on a rapidly growing taxpaying labour force to finance the expected shortfalls. Against this backdrop, volumes 15 and 16 of the International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics Series provide very timely and relevant research for policy makers and researchers across the world. The modelling approaches and research described in the volumes are at the international leading edge, providing insights into how different countries are facing the challenges associated with population ageing. Many countries have developed microsimulation and other models to help them evaluate the impacts of population ageing and of public policy change. Volume 15 concentrates upon the impacts of population ageing upon social security and taxation. For example, the chapters examine likely future pension outlays under current and possible alternative schemes ; estimate the likely wealth of future retirees ; forecast tax revenues out to 2026 and look at the impact of population ageing upon housing prices and tourism CC : 002B30A11 FD : Personne âgée; Retraite; Population; Sénescence; Secteur privé; Macroéconomie; Santé; Education; Revenu individuel; Niveau vie; Demande; Logement habitation; Prix; Tourisme; Financement; Politique; Offre; Soin; Croissance économique; Modèle; Prospective; Suède; Norvège; Canada; Australie; Danemark; France; Simulation FG : Homme; Europe; Amérique du Nord; Amérique; Océanie ED : Elderly; Retirement; Population; Senescence; Private sector; Macroeconomics; Health; Education; Personal income; Standard of living; Demand; Housing; Price; Tourism; Financing; Policy; Offer; Care; Economic growth; Models; Prospective; Sweden; Norway; Canada; Australia; Denmark; France; Simulation EG : Human; Europe; North America; America; Oceania SD : Anciano; Jubilación; Población; Senescencia; Sector privado; Macroeconomía; Salud; Educación; Renta personal; Petición; Habitación; Precio; Turismo; Financiación; Política; Oferta; Cuidado; Crecimiento económico; Modelo; Prospectiva; Suecia; Noruega; Canadá; Australia; Dinamarca; Francia; Simulación LO : BDSP/IRDES-A3541bis, CODBAR 0053115 406/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0294250 BDSP FT : (Modéliser notre futur : santé de la population âgée et soins aux personnes âgées) ET : Modelling our future : population ageing health and aged care AU : GUPTA (A.); HARDING (A.) AF : DT : Congrès; Niveau monographique SO : International Microsimulation Conference on Population Ageing and Health : Modelling Our Future/2003-12-08/NLD; Pays-Bas; Amsterdam: Elsevier; Da. 2007; Pp. Pagination mult.[594 p.] LA : Anglais EA : This volume serves to present to interested readers recent developments in microsimulation and public policy. It strings together : (1) selected papers presented at the International Microsimulation Conference on Population Ageing and Health : Modelling Our Future ? held in Canberra, Australia in December 2003 ; and (2) recent thinking in the field of microsimulation as reflected in special contributions by some of the leading experts in the field ; (3) description of 20 key models relating to fiscal and health human resource issues concerning sustainability of health systems around the globe. The focus of the conference was on practical uses of microsimulation in government policy although theoretical underpinnings also received considerable attention. The volume covers a diversity of subjects : health status ; pharmacare and health expenditure issues ; financing, caring and health delivery ; health human resources ; and data challenges. To provide an insight into actual models used around the world, the book also has a section devoted to the challenges associated with building of microsimulation models and their current use in the formulation of public policy. The book presents some innovative analysis on public policy issues contained in some of the conference papers along with the methodological advancements made in the microsimulation field CC : 002B30A11 FD : Personne âgée; Santé; Politique sanitaire; Politique; Offre; Soin; Financement; Dépense; Médicament; Système santé; Performance; Ressources humaines; Modèle; Objectif; Choix; Priorité; Santé publique; Simulation FG : Homme ED : Elderly; Health; Health policy; Policy; Offer; Care; Financing; Expenditure; Drug; Health system; Performance; Human capital; Models; Objective; Choice; Priority; Public health; Simulation EG : Human SD : Anciano; Salud; Política sanitaria; Política; Oferta; Cuidado; Financiación; Gasto; Medicamento; Sistema salud; Rendimiento; Capital humano; Modelo; Objetivo; Elección; Prioridad; Salud pública; Simulación LO : BDSP/IRDES-A3541, CODBAR 0053090 407/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0273327 INIST ET : Preprocessing volume input data for improved traffic simulation AU : WUPING XIN; HOURDOS (John); MICHALOPOULOS (Panos) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, 500 Pillsbury Drive Southeast/Minneapolis, MN 55455/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; No. 1965; Pp. 192-200; Bibl. 26 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Microsimulation has become an increasingly indispensable tool in demanding intelligent transportation systems and planning applications. To build reliable and realistic simulation models, high-quality input data, including roadway geometry, vehicle and driver characteristics, traffic volumes, and composition, are required. Volumes of these data are important but hard to obtain; even when collected with advanced surveillance systems, they are susceptible to miscounting, gaps in time and space, and other inaccuracies. Data that appear to be accurate often do not balance out (i.e., they are inconsistent in terms of maintaining conservation throughout the system). These problems could lead to anomalies or errors during the simulation, seriously tainting the reliability and accuracy of the outputs and weakening the credibility of the conclusions. A comprehensive methodology is proposed for improving the quality of freeway traffic volumes for simulation purposes. Established and enhanced procedures for checking and correcting temporal errors are integrated with an optimization-based algorithm for reconciling spatial inconsistencies in traffic counts. A real-life freeway section was selected to show the effectiveness of the methodology over several days of varying demands. The proposed methodology improved goodness-of-fit measures like root-mean-square percentage, correlation coefficient, and Theil's coefficients. Typical traffic measures of effectiveness produced with reconciled data are closer to ground truth than those produced with corrupted data. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Modèle simulation; Système intelligent; Planification; Méthodologie; Volume trafic; Statistique; Application; Expérimentation ED : Road traffic; Simulation model; Intelligent system; Planning; Methodology; Capacity of traffic; Statistics; Application; Experimentation SD : Tráfico carretera; Modelo simulación; Sistema inteligente; Planificación; Metodología; Volumen tráfico; Estadística; Aplicación; Experimentación LO : INIST-10459B.354000139091490200 408/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0273324 INIST ET : Failure detection and diagnosis in microsimulation traffic models AU : BAOHONG WAN; ROUPHAIL (Nagui); SACKS (Jerome) AF : Martin/Alexiou/Bryson, PLLC, 4000 Westchase Boulevard, Suite 530/Raleigh, NC 27607/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Institute of Transportation Research and Edu cation, North Carolina State University/Raleigh, NC 27695-8601/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); National Institute of Statistical Sciences, P.O. Box 14006/Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-4006/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; No. 1965; Pp. 163-170; Bibl. 16 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Effective and feasible procedures for validating microscopic, stochastic traffic simulation models are in short supply. Exercising such microsimulators many times may lead to the occurrence of traffic gridlock (or simulation failures) on some or all replications. Whereas lack of failures does not ensure validity of the simulator for predicting performance, the occurrence of failures can provide clues for identifying deficiencies of the simulation model and invite strategies for model improvement. Failure is defined as a severe malfunction in one or more traffic links on the network where vehicles are unable to discharge for an unusually long period. Such malfunctions can be detected with link-based time traces of vehicle trips. Identifying locations where malfunctions arise requires further spatial analyses. A procedure for identifying whether, when, and where failures occur Is described. The simulator CORSIM serves as the test-bed simulator for the proposed methodology, but the procedure is applicable to any comparable microscopic model; real-world traffic networks are simulated as case studies. Possible root causes of detected failures are (a) flaws in the simulator behavioral algorithms, (b) improper calibration of inputs, and (c) capacity problems related to the specific network (for example, when heavy traffic demand projections are simulated). Strategies to identify why failures occur are used in the case studies. The results Indicate that the proposed failure detection and diagnosis process is an effective (and essential) way to explore the validity of traffic simulators and find improvements where needed. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Ecoulement trafic; Modèle simulation; Détection panne; Diagnostic panne; Modèle stochastique; Simulateur; Expérimentation ED : Road traffic; Traffic flow; Simulation model; Failure detection; Fault diagnostic; Stochastic model; Simulator; Experimentation SD : Tráfico carretera; Flujo tráfico; Modelo simulación; Detección falla; Diagnóstico pana; Modelo estocástico; Simulador; Experimentación LO : INIST-10459B.354000139091490170 409/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0268829 INIST ET : The commercial sector demand for energy in Kuwait AU : MOHAMED NAGY ELTONY; AL-AWADHI (Mohammad A.) AF : Department of the Industrial Bank of Kuwait/Koweït (1 aut.); Public Authority for Applied Education and Training/Koweït (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : OPEC review; ISSN 0277-0180; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2007; Vol. 31; No. 1; Pp. 17-26; Bibl. 1/4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper models and estimates the energy demand by the commercial sector, using an error correction model. It also simulates the estimated model under three pricing scenarios and presents an analysis of the results. The empirical results indicate that short and long term energy consumption and the level of economic activity are entwined&dquot; The forecasts show that electricity consumption varies directly with economic growth. It also suggests that an increase of 100 per cent in nominal electricity prices will lead to a reduction in commercial sector electricity demand by about 27 per cent by the year 2015. The simulation of the model under the different pricing scenarios demonstrates that there is a great potential for energy conservation by the commercial sector. CC : 001D06A01C1; 230 FD : Economie énergie; Koweit; Demande énergie; Secteur commercial; Modèle économétrique; Correction erreur; Scénario; Fixation prix FG : Asie ED : Energy economy; Kuwait; Energy demand; Commercial sector; Econometric model; Error correction; Script; Pricing EG : Asia SD : Economía energía; Kuwayt; Demanda energía; Sector comercial; Modelo econométrico; Corrección error; Argumento; Fijación precios LO : INIST-19312.354000143328380020 410/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0254802 INIST ET : Microsimulation assignment model for multidirectional pedestrian movement in congested facilities AU : ABDELGHANY (Ahmed); ABDELGHANY (Khaled); MAHMASSANI (Hani S.); AL-GADHI (Saad A.) AF : Information Services Division, United Airlines, 1200 East Algon quin Road/Elk Grove Village, IL 60007/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Environ mental and Civil Engineering, Southern Methodist University, P.O. Box 750335/Dallas, TX 75205-0335/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Mahmassani, Department of Civil and Environ mental Engineering, Maryland Transportation Initiative, University of Maryland, 1173 Glenn L. Martin Hall/College Park, MD 20742/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, Kind Saud University/Riyadh/Arabie Saoudite (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; No. 1939; Pp. 123-132; Bibl. 18 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Frequent pedestrian casualties in crowded facilities have brought increasing attention to the study of pedestrian dynamics in such facilities. In this paper, a microsimulation assignment model for multidirectional pedestrian movement in crowds is presented. The model attempts to overcome many limitations of existing models by incorporating various pedestrian behavior rules under a particular set of situations. It also adopts a cellular automata discrete system that allows detailed representation of pedestrians' walkways and movement areas. The model is applied to the &dquot;mataf&dquot; system, which is located at the main prayer hall of the holy noble mosque known as Al-Haram Al-Shareef Mosque in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. A set of simulation experiments is designed to illustrate use of the model to study the performance of the mataf system by consideration of different operational conditions as well as different pilgrim behavior rules. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic piéton; Zone piétonnière; Modèle simulation; Foule; Congestion trafic; Modélisation; Exemple; Mouvement; Application; Expérimentation; Etude sur modèle; Système discret; Automate cellulaire; Arabie Saoudite; Résultat expérimental FG : Asie ED : Pedestrian traffic; Pedestrian zone; Simulation model; Crowd; Traffic congestion; Modeling; Example; Motion; Application; Experimentation; Model study; Discrete system; Cellular automaton; Saudi Arabia; Experimental result EG : Asia SD : Tráfico peatones; Zona peatonal; Modelo simulación; Multitud; Congestión tráfico; Modelización; Ejemplo; Movimiento; Aplicación; Experimentación; Estudio sobre modelo; Sistema discreto; Autómata celular; Arabia saudita; Resultado experimental LO : INIST-10459B.354000159317450150 411/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0254800 INIST ET : Multimodal microsimulation of vehicle and pedestrian signal timings AU : ISHAQUE (Muhammad M.); NOLAND (Robert B.) AF : Center for Transport Studies, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineer ing, Imperial College London/London SW7 2AZ/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; No. 1939; Pp. 107-114; Bibl. 18 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A simple hypothetical network is analyzed with a microsimulation model to study the effects of signal cycle timings on the delay caused to both vehicles and pedestrians. Various vehicle types and pedestrians are introduced into the network, and their complete journeys are captured in the data output. Fixed-time noncoordinated signal cycles are defined at controlled Junctions. Vehicle flows and signal cycle durations are varied while the other parameters, including pedestrian green phase timings, are held constant. Travel time delay information is disaggregated for vehicles and pedestrians for different signal timing scenarios. The results show that no single signal cycle timing can optimize the network delay for all types of flows. However, if the objective is to minimize the travel delay for all travelers, it is possible to find the optimal signal cycle length on the basis of the relative proportion of people using different modes. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O08; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Modèle simulation; Transport multimodal; Type véhicule; Piéton; Timing; Feu signalisation; Essai sur modèle; Durée trajet; Ecoulement trafic; Retard; Optimisation; Stratégie; Analyse donnée; Résultat ED : Road traffic; Simulation model; Multimodal transportation; Vehicle type; Pedestrian; Timing; Traffic lights; Model test; Travel time; Traffic flow; Delay; Optimization; Strategy; Data analysis; Result SD : Tráfico carretera; Modelo simulación; Transporte multimodal; Tipo vehículo; Peatón; Timing; Semáforo; Ensayo sobre modelo; Duración trayecto; Flujo tráfico; Retraso; Optimización; Estrategia; Análisis datos; Resultado LO : INIST-10459B.354000159317450130 412/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0243846 INIST ET : Allografts for aortic valve or root replacement : insights from an 18-year single-center prospective follow-up study. Discussion AU : TAKKENBERG (Johanna J. M.); KLIEVERIK (Loes M. A.); BEKKERS (Jos A.); KAPPETEIN (A. Pieter); ROOS (Jolien W.); EIJKEMANS (Marinus J. C.); BOGERS (Ad J. J. C.); KOLH (P.); PEPPER (J.) AF : Departments of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, Cardiology, and Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas DT : Publication en série; Article; Commentaire; Niveau analytique SO : European journal of cardio-thoracic surgery; ISSN 1010-7940; Coden EJCSE7; Pays-Bas; Da. 2007; Vol. 31; No. 5; Pp. 851-859; Bibl. 24 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Objective: Whether allografts are the biological valve of choice for AVR in non-elderly patients remains a topic of debate. In this light we analyzed our ongoing prospective allograft AVR cohort and compared allograft durability with other biological aortic valve substitutes. Methods: Between April 1987 and October 2005, 336 patients underwent 346 allograft AVRs (95 subcoronary, 251 root replacement). Patient and perioperative characteristics, cumulative survival, freedom from reoperation, and valve-related events were analyzed. Using microsimulation, for adult patients, age-matched actual freedom from allograft reoperation was compared to porcine and pericardial bioprostheses. Results: Mean age was 45 years (range 1 month to 83 years); 72% were males. Etiology was mainly endocarditis 32% (active 22%), congenital 31%, degenerative 9%, and aneurysm/dissection 12%. Twenty-seven percent underwent prior cardiac surgery. Hospital mortality was 5.5% (N = 19). During follow-up (mean 7.4 years, maximum 18.5 years, 98% complete), 54 patients died; there were 57 valve-related reoperations (3 early technical, 11 non-structural, 39 structural valve deterioration (SVD), 4 endocarditis), 5 cerebrovascular accidents, 1 fatal bleeding, 8 endocarditis. Twelve-year cumulative survival was 71% (SE 3), freedom from reoperation for SVD 77% (SE 4); younger patient age was associated with increased SVD rates. Actual risk of allograft reoperation was comparable to porcine and pericardial bioprostheses in a simulated age-matched population. Conclusions: The use of allografts for AVR is associated with low occurrence rates of most valve-related events, but over time the risk of SVD increases, comparable to stented xenografts. It remains in our institute the preferred valve substitute only for patients with active aortic root endocarditis and for patients in whom anticoagulation should be avoided. CC : 002B25E FD : Appareil circulatoire pathologie; Cardiopathie; Homogreffe; Valvule aortique; Chirurgie; Valvule cardiaque; Racine; Connaissance; Centre; Prospective; Etude longitudinale; Discussion; Pronostic; Réintervention; Traitement; Intuition FG : Greffe ED : Cardiovascular disease; Heart disease; Homograft; Aortic valve; Surgery; Heart valve; Root; Knowledge; Center; Prospective; Follow up study; Discussion; Prognosis; Reoperation; Treatment EG : Graft SD : Aparato circulatorio patología; Cardiopatía; Homoinjerto; Válvula aórtica; Cirugía; Válvula cardíaca; Raíz; Conocimiento; Centro; Prospectiva; Estudio longitudinal; Discusión; Pronóstico; Reintervención; Tratamiento LO : INIST-21307.354000149588890180 413/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0237835 INIST ET : Spatiotemporal programming of a simple inflammatory process AU : KEPLER (Thomas B.); CHAN (Cliburn); MATA (James); COHN (Melvin) AF : Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Center for Computational Immunology, Duke University/Durham, NC/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); Department of Immunology, Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences, Duke University/Durham, NC/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Conceptual Immunology Group, Salk Institute/La Jolla, CA/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Immunological reviews; ISSN 0105-2896; Coden IMRED2; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2007; Vol. 216; Pp. 153-163; Bibl. 23 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Inflammatory processes are essential for recruiting leukocytes to the site of infection in sufficient numbers and for initiating adaptive immunity. Unresolved inflammation, however, can cause serious damage to host tissues and indeed is known to contribute to the pathology of many acute and chronic diseases. Leukocytes activated by pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs) respond, in part, by secreting tumor necrosis factor (TNF) and by shedding the TNF receptor, the latter process occurring with slower kinetics. We suggest that this pro/anti-inflammatory switch is a simple program that helps ensure the resolution of inflammation. To examine this idea, we have developed a microsimulation model in which individual leukocytes with non-trivial internal dynamics move in three-dimensional tissues and interact with each other and with stromal cells through diffusing soluble factors, including TNF, the soluble form of the tumor necrosis factor receptor (sTNFR), and the chemokine monocyte chemotactic protein-1. By manipulating parameters in numerical experiments with soluble PAMP stimulation of varying intensity and duration, we elicit qualitatively distinct patterns of innate immune response and elucidate a key relationship between leukocyte density enhancement by chemotaxis and paracrine TNF signaling. By reducing the rate of sTNFR shedding, we induce massive unresolved inflammation, underscoring a potentially crucial role of sTNFR in controlling innate immunity. CC : 002B06; 002A06 FD : Cytokine; Programmation; Inflammation; Facteur nécrose tumorale; Simulation; Macrophage; Polysérite familiale récidivante FG : Immunologie; Immunopathologie; Maladie héréditaire; Système ostéoarticulaire pathologie ED : Cytokine; Programming; Inflammation; Tumor necrosis factor; Simulation; Macrophage; Familial recurrent polyseritis EG : Immunology; Immunopathology; Genetic disease; Diseases of the osteoarticular system SD : Citoquina; Programación; Inflamación; Factor necrosis tumoral; Simulación; Macrófago; Poliserositis recurrente familiar LO : INIST-14317.354000143554660110 414/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0233133 BDSP FT : (Développement de nouvelles stratégies de soutien aux futurs aidants des canadiens âgés souffrant d'incapacités : projections des besoins et conséquences politiques) ET : Developing new strategies to support future caregivers of older Canadians with disabilities : projections of need and their policy implications AU : KEEFE (J.); LEGARE (J.); CARRIERE (Y.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : CANADIAN PUBLIC POLICY - ANALYSE DE POLITIQUES; ISSN 0317-0861; Canada; Da. 2007; Vol. 33; No. Suppl.; S65-S80; Bibl. dissem. LA : Anglais FA : Dans cet article, grâce à des projections, nous évaluons la croissance annuelle au Canada, de 2001 à 2031, du soutien structuré et bénévole dont auront besoin les personnes âgées vivant avec des incapacités. Nous y analysons également les implications, sur le plan des politiques publiques, du besoin croissant d'aidants naturels. Basées sur le modèle de microsimulation LifePaths, de Statistique Canada, ces projections intègrent les taux d'incapacité et la disponibilité potentielle d'aidants naturels à l'intérieur des familles. Nous en concluons que continuer à trop compter sur les familles pour répondre aux besoins des personnes âgées ne constitue pas une approche durable. Enfin, nous proposons la mise en place de politiques publiques pour offrir du soutien financier et du répit aux aidants naturels, et nous évaluons la faisabilité économique de ces politiques CC : 002B30A11 FD : Personne âgée; Incapacité; Autonomie; Dépendance; Politique; Financement; Donnée statistique; Projection perspective; Canada FG : Homme; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Elderly; Disability; Autonomy; Dependence; Policy; Financing; Statistical data; Perspective projection; Canada EG : Human; North America; America SD : Anciano; Incapacidad; Autonomía; Dependencia; Política; Financiación; Dato estadístico; Proyección perspectiva; Canadá LO : BDSP/IRDES-B5852, CODBAR 0053380 415/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0228337 INIST ET : Upstream signalized crossover intersection : Optimization and performance issues AU : SAYED (Tarek); STORER (Paul); WONG (Godwin) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of British Columbia, 6250 Applied Science Lane/Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z4/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; No. 1961; Pp. 44-54; Bibl. 6 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Left turns have a significant impact on the operation and performance of signalized intersections. Therefore, researchers have investigated alternative measures to improve the performance of intersections with heavy left-turn movements, some of which have been unconventional schemes. One of these schemes is the upstream signalized crossover (USC), a four-legged intersection designed to eliminate left-turn-opposing conflicts by crossing the left and through traffic to the left side of the road at all four approaches prior to the intersection. Crisscrossing action is achieved through the use of a secondary two-phase signal at each crossover point. This research investigated signal optimization strategies for USC intersections and identified important operation issues. The VISSIM microsimulation program was used to model and analyze the unconventional USC intersection and, for comparison, a conventional intersection. The analysis revealed that, for relatively balanced volumes, a USC intersection can significantly reduce average vehicle delays, particularly when the volumes entering the intersection are relatively high. More important, the capacity of the USC intersection was found to be approximately 50% greater than that of a conventional intersection with similar geometry under balanced traffic volumes. For highly unbalanced volumes, particularly when the intersection volumes were relatively low, a conventional intersection outperformed the USC intersection. Overall, the USC intersection showed considerable potential for situations in which one or more of the following conditions exist: (a) intersection volumes are balanced and near or over the capacity of a conventional intersection, (b) traffic volumes are somewhat unbalanced, but the overall entering volumes are too high to be accommodated with a conventional intersection, or (c) the intersection has heavy left-turn volumes that cause excessive delays. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Intersection; Feu signalisation; Optimisation; Performance; Timing; Méthode analyse; Coordination; Géométrie; Scénario; Durée trajet; Ecoulement trafic ED : Road traffic; Intersection; Traffic lights; Optimization; Performance; Timing; Analysis method; Coordination; Geometry; Script; Travel time; Traffic flow SD : Tráfico carretera; Intersección; Semáforo; Optimización; Rendimiento; Timing; Método análisis; Coordinación; Geometría; Argumento; Duración trayecto; Flujo tráfico LO : INIST-10459B.354000159053430060 416/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0225545 INIST ET : Comprehensive evaluation of new integrated freeway ramp control strategy AU : WUPING XIN; HOURDOS (John); MICHALOPOULOS (Panos G.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, 500 Pillsbury Drive SE/Minneapolis, MN 55455/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; No. 1959; Pp. 46-54; Bibl. 28 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A new integrated ramp control strategy, recently deployed by the Minnesota Department of Transportation in the Twin Cities metropolitan area, is evaluated. This strategy, stratified zone metering (SZM), takes into account real-time ramp demand and queue size information and aims to strike a balance between two competing objectives: improving freeway efficiency and preventing excessive ramp delays. In this study, the SZM strategy was compared to the easier ZONE metering strategy as well as to the no-control alternative. Comprehensive metrics were generated through rigorous microsimulation to assess critical aspects of the strategy's performance. The evaluation results are consistent with qualitative field observations and confirm that SZM strategy improves freeway efficiency when compared with the no-control alternative, reduces freeway travel time and delay, improves freeway speed, smooths freeway flow, and reduces the number of stops. More important, excessive queue spillbacks and ramp delays were significantly reduced under SZM control when compared with the earlier ZONE metering strategy. However, the nonrestrictive metering rates under SZM may cause the freeway proper to be overloaded; this leads to compromised freeway performance as compared with the more restrictive ramp control. This is especially true for heavy traffic demands, when higher ramp volumes are allowed on the freeway. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Autoroute; Régulation trafic; Minnesota; Stratégie; Système intégré; Evaluation système; Comptage trafic; Choix site; Etude comparative FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Freeway; Traffic control; Minnesota; Strategy; Integrated system; System evaluation; Traffic meter; Site selection; Comparative study EG : United States; North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Autopista; Regulación tráfico; Minesota; Estrategia; Sistema integrado; Evaluación sistema; Contaje tráfico; Elección sitio; Estudio comparativo LO : INIST-10459B.354000145086190060 417/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0225540 INIST ET : Automated adaptive traffic corridor control using reinforcement learning : Approach and case studies AU : JACOB (Celine); ABDULHAI (Baher) AF : LEA Consulting, Ltd., Suite 900, 625 Cochrane Drive/Markham, Ontario L3R 9R9/Canada (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, Suite 105, 35 Saint George Street/Toronto, Ontario M5S 1 A4/Canada (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; No. 1959; Pp. 1-8; Bibl. 12 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Advancements in intelligent transportation systems and communication technology could considerably reduce delay and congestion through an array of networkwide traffic control and management strategies. The two most promising control tools for freeway corridors are traffic-responsive ramp metering and dynamic traffic diversion using variable message signs (VMSs). The use of these control methods independently could limit their usefulness. Therefore, integrated corridor control by using ramp metering and VMS diversion simultaneously could be beneficial. Administration of freeways and adjacent arterials often falls under different jurisdictional authorities. Lack of coordination among those authorities caused by lack of means for information exchange or &dquot;institutional grid-lock&dquot; could hinder the full potential of technically possible integrated control. Fully automating corridor control could alleviate this problem. Research was conducted to develop a self-learning adaptive integrated freeway-arterial corridor control for both recurring and nonrecurring congestion. Reinforcement learning, an artificial intelligence method for machine learning, is used to provide a single, multiple, or integrated optimal control agent for a freeway or freeway-arterial corridor for both recurrent and nonrecurrent congestion. The microsimulation tool Paramics, which has been used to train and evaluate the agent in an offline mode within a simulated environment, is described. Results from various simulation case studies in the Toronto, Canada, area are encouraging and have demonstrated the effectiveness and superiority of the technique. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Gestion trafic; Corridor; Système intelligent; Technologie communication; Régulation trafic; Apprentissage; Commande adaptative; Modèle simulation; Efficacité; Etude comparative; Gestion intégrée; Autoroute ED : Road traffic; Traffic management; Corridor; Intelligent system; Communication technology; Traffic control; Learning; Adaptive control; Simulation model; Efficiency; Comparative study; Integrated management; Freeway SD : Tráfico carretera; Gestión tráfico; Corredor; Sistema inteligente; Tecnología comunicacíon; Regulación tráfico; Aprendizaje; Control adaptativo; Modelo simulación; Eficacia; Estudio comparativo; Gestión integrada; Autopista LO : INIST-10459B.354000145086190010 418/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0197812 INIST ET : Microsimulation of flexible transit system designs in realistic urban networks AU : CORTES (Cristian E.); PAGES (Laia); JAYAKRISHNAN (R.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Chile/Santiago/Chili (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering and Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California at Irvine/Irvine, CA 92967/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; No. 1923; Pp. 153-163; Bibl. 17 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The use of microsimulation is not prevalent in modeling transit systems. The software available is rarely capable of modeling transit systems that route vehicles in real time or systems that adjust to the level of demand. It is not straightforward to model a transit system with the available simulation packages, especially when the transit scheme is not &dquot;standard.&dquot; Even the simulation of basic schemes such as a streetcar system or a paratransit service is not an option in existing simulation software. A cursory study would reveal that simulation of any vehicle class other than personal automobiles is always developed as an afterthought in the existing large-scale microsimulation packages. In most cases, simulation developers have done only a superficial addition of transit simulation on top of detailed simulation of automobiles and control mechanisms on freeways and arterials. A microsimulation framework has been developed for a general transit system. Concrete applications of such a framework have been developed and are presented in this paper. Two different transit systems are modeled using the same general framework to show the flexibility of the simulation scheme: a bus rapid transit system and a large-scale real-time routed transit design. The intent is to describe the flexibility that can be brought into a properly designed microscopic simulation platform to model innovative transit system designs, especially in larger urban networks. A simulation scenario is presented in which both transit systems function. The details of both simulations are described along with the problems encountered, and ways to solve them are exposed. CC : 001D15C FD : Transport routier; Modèle simulation; Conception système; Réseau urbain; Application; Implémentation; Autobus; Expérimentation ED : Road transportation; Simulation model; System design; Urban district network; Application; Implementation; Bus; Experimentation SD : Transporte por carretera; Modelo simulación; Concepción sistema; Red urbana; Aplicación; Implementación; Autobus; Experimentación LO : INIST-10459B.354000159311330170 419/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0195144 INIST ET : Versatile model for simulation of rural road traffic AU : TAPANI (Andreas) AF : Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute and Department of Science and Technology, Linkoping Institute of Technology/581 95 Linköping/Suède (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; No. 1934; Pp. 169-178; Bibl. 13 ref. LA : Anglais EA : In many countries the road mileage is dominated by rural highways. For that reason it is important to have access to efficient tools for evaluation of the performance of such roads. For other road types, e.g., freeways and urban street networks, a wealth of microsimulation models is available. However, only a few models dedicated to rural roads have been developed. None of these models handles traffic flows interrupted by intersections or roundabouts, nor are the models capable of describing the traffic flow on rural roads with a cable barrier between oncoming lanes. These are major drawbacks when Swedish roads, on which cable barriers and roundabouts are becoming increasingly important, are modeled. Moreover, as new areas of application for rural road simulation arise, a flexible and detailed model is needed. Such applications include, among other things, simulation of driver assistance systems and estimation of pollutant emissions. This paper introduces a versatile traffic microsimulation model for the rural roads of today and of the future. The model system presented, the Rural Traffic Simulator (RuTSim), is capable of handling all common types of rural roads, including the effects of roundabouts and intersections on the traffic on the main road. The purpose of the paper is to describe the simulation approach and the traffic modeling used in RuTSim. A verification of the RuTSim model is also included. RuTSim is found to produce outputs representative of all common types of rural roads in Sweden. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Zone rurale; Modèle simulation; Ecoulement trafic; Simulateur; Vitesse déplacement; Accélération; Dépassement véhicule; Intersection; Carrefour giratoire; Vérification; Etude comparative ED : Road traffic; Rural area; Simulation model; Traffic flow; Simulator; Speed; Acceleration; Overtaking; Intersection; Roundabout; Verification; Comparative study SD : Tráfico carretera; Zona rural; Modelo simulación; Flujo tráfico; Simulador; Velocidad desplazamiento; Aceleración; Adelantamiento vehículo; Intersección; Bifurcación giratoria; Verificación; Estudio comparativo LO : INIST-10459B.354000159317520180 420/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0195127 INIST ET : Nonstationary Kalman filter for estimation of accurate and consistent car-following data AU : PUNZO (Vincenzo); FORMISANO (Domenico Josto); TORRIERI (Vincenzo) AF : Department of Transportation Engineering, University of Napoli &dquot;Federico II,&dquot; Via Claudio, 21/80125 Naples/Italie (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; No. 1934; Pp. 3-12; Bibl. 17 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Difficulty in obtaining accurate car-following data has traditionally been regarded as a considerable drawback in understanding real phenomena and has affected the development and validation of traffic microsimulation models. Recent advancements in digital technology have opened up new horizons in the conduct of research in this field. Despite the high degrees of precision of these techniques, estimation of time series data of speeds and accelerations from positions with the required accuracy is still a demanding task. The core of the problem is filtering the noisy trajectory data for each vehicle without altering platoon data consistency; i.e., the speeds and accelerations of following vehicles must be estimated so that the resulting intervehicle spacings are equal to the real one. Otherwise, negative spacings can also easily occur. The task was achieved in this study by considering vehicles of a platoon as a sole dynamic system and reducing several estimation problems to a single consistent one. This process was accomplished by means of a nonstationary Kalman filter that used measurements and time-varying error information from differential Global Positioning System devices. The Kalman filter was fruitfully applied here to estimation of the speed of the whole platoon by including intervehicle spacings as additional measurements (assumed to be reference measurements). The closed solution of an optimization problem that ensures strict observation of the true intervehicle spacings concludes the estimation process. The stationary counterpart of the devised filter is suitable for application to position data, regardless of the data collection technique used, e.g., video cameras. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Ecoulement trafic; Etude théorique; Collecte donnée; Filtre Kalman; Donnée expérimentale; Résultat mesure; Système GPS; Filtrage; Affinement; Etude comparative; Suivi de véhicule ED : Road traffic; Traffic flow; Theoretical study; Data gathering; Kalman filter; Experimental data; Measurement result; GPS system; Filtering; Refinement; Comparative study; Car following SD : Tráfico carretera; Flujo tráfico; Estudio teórico; Recolección dato; Filtro Kalman; Dato experimental; Resultado medición; Sistema GPS; Filtrado; Afinamiento; Estudio comparativo LO : INIST-10459B.354000159317520010 421/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0194929 INIST ET : Microsimulation based corrections on the road traffic noise emission near intersections AU : DE COENSEL (Bert); BOTTELDOOREN (Dick); VANHOVE (Filip); LOGGHE (Steven) AF : Acoustics Group, Department of Information Technology, Ghent University, St. Pietersnieuwstraat 41/9000 Ghent/Belgique (1 aut., 2 aut.); Transport & Mobility Leuven, Vital Decosterstraat 67A/3000 Leuven/Belgique (3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Acta acustica united with acustica; ISSN 1610-1928; Allemagne; Da. 2007; Vol. 93; No. 2; Pp. 241-252; Bibl. 53 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Urban noise mapping traditionally involves the use of a traffic simulation model, which is often based on the estimation of macroscopic traffic flows. However, intersections and other local traffic management measures are not always modeled correctly. It is well known that the specific deceleration and acceleration dynamics of traffic at junctions can influence local noise emission. Finding the best strategy for using traffic modeling results in noise mapping is a current topic of research in the IMAGINE project. In this paper, a case study is presented, consisting of a large set of microscopic traffic simulations and associated noise emission calculations, which provides some insight into the specific dynamics of the noise emission near different types of intersections. It will be shown that it is possible to refine current traffic noise prediction models, based on macroscopic traffic simulation, using a correction on the average vehicle emission, aggregated in lane segments. A spatial approach should be used, in which inbound and outbound lanes are divided into deceleration, queuing, stopline and acceleration zones. Results from regression analysis on the numerical simulations indicate that meaningful relations between noise corrections and traffic flow parameters such as traffic intensity and composition can be deduced. CC : 001B40C28; 001B40C50 FD : Bruit trafic; Nuisance acoustique; Bruit fond; Ecoulement; Trafic routier; Zone urbaine; Source sonore; Modélisation; Analyse régression; Mesure; . ED : Traffic noise; Noise pollution; Background noise; Flow(fluid); Road traffic; Urban area; Sound source; Modeling; Regression analysis; Measurement SD : Ruido tráfico; Nocividad acústica; Ruido fondo; Flujo; Tráfico carretera; Zona urbana; Fuente sonora; Modelización; Análisis regresión; Medida LO : INIST-6827.354000147139120060 422/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0181312 INIST ET : Intrahousehold car-type choice for different travel needs AU : PETERSEN (Eric); VOVSHA (Peter) AF : Rand Europe, Westbrook Centre, Milton Road/Cambridge CB4 1YG/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.); PB Consult, Parsons Brinckerhoff, Inc., 5 Penn Plaza, 19th Floor/New York, NY 10001/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; No. 1985; Pp. 207-219; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A new generation of travel demand models based on individual microsimulation of activities and travel has opened the way for more detailed analysis and modeling of vehicle use. However, the first activity-based models-those applied in practice as well as activity-based model systems developed as research projects-inherited the simplified approach to car allocation and use with no distinction between vehicle types and certainly no explicit modeling of allocation and use of individual vehicles by household members. Structural modeling of car use by vehicle type is essential for air quality and other environmental issues. Further developments of more elaborate policies (toll roads, area pricing, parking restrictions, etc.) that could be differentiated by vehicle size, type, and occupancy are also foreseen. The current study outlines a modeling approach to this issue that can be incorporated into the framework of an operational travel model, as well as reports on the results of estimation for a model of car-type choice based on a comprehensive household survey undertaken in the Atlanta, Georgia, region in 2001. CC : 001D15A FD : Transport voyageur; Analyse comportementale; Voyage; Choix; Type véhicule; Ménage; Besoin; Modélisation; Statistique; Automobile; Formulation; Résultat ED : Passenger transportation; Behavioral analysis; Travel; Choice; Vehicle type; Household; Need; Modeling; Statistics; Motor car; Formulation; Result SD : Transporte pasajero; Análisis conductual; Viaje; Elección; Tipo vehículo; Familia; Necesidad; Modelización; Estadística; Automóvil; Formulación; Resultado LO : INIST-10459B.354000143353100230 423/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0181303 INIST ET : Agent-based demand-modeling framework for large-scale microsimulations AU : BALMER (Michael); AXHAUSEN (Kay W.); NAGEL (Kai) AF : Institute for Transport Planning and Systems (IVT), ETH Zurich/Suisse (1 aut., 2 aut.); Transport Systems Planning and Transport Telematics (VSP), Technischen Universität Berlin/Berlin/Allemagne (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; No. 1985; Pp. 125-134; Bibl. 32 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Microsimulation is becoming increasingly important in traffic demand modeling. The major advantage over traditional four-step models is the ability to simulate each traveler individually. Decision-making processes can be included for each individual. Traffic demand is the result of the different decisions made by individuals; these decisions lead to plans that the individuals then try to optimize. Therefore, such microsimulation models need appropriate initial demand patterns for all given individuals. The challenge is to create individual demand patterns out of general input data. In practice, there is a large variety of input data, which can differ in quality, spatial resolution, purpose, and other characteristics. The challenge for a flexible demand-modeling framework is to combine the various data types to produce individual demand patterns. In addition, the modeling framework has to define precise interfaces to provide portability to other models, programs, and frameworks, and it should be suitable for large-scale applications that use many millions of individuals. Because the model has to be adaptable to the given input data, the framework needs to be easily extensible with new algorithms and models. The presented demand-modeling framework for large-scale scenarios fulfils all these requirements. By modeling the demand for two different scenarios (Zurich, Switzerland, and the German states of Berlin and Brandenburg), the framework shows its flexibility in aspects of diverse input data, interfaces to third-party products, spatial resolution, and last but not least, the modeling process itself. CC : 001D15A FD : Transport voyageur; Analyse comportementale; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Demande transport; Prise décision; Algorithme; Suisse; Allemagne FG : Europe ED : Passenger transportation; Behavioral analysis; Modeling; Simulation model; Transport demand; Decision making; Algorithm; Switzerland; Germany EG : Europe SD : Transporte pasajero; Análisis conductual; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Demanda transporte; Toma decision; Algoritmo; Suiza; Alemania LO : INIST-10459B.354000143353100140 424/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0179186 INIST ET : Potential computational benefits of geometric, kinematic, and behavioral downsampling of microscopic traffic network simulation AU : ISHAK (Sherif); ALECSANDRU (Ciprian); CHAKRAVARTHY (Srikanth) AF : Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Louisiana State Univ/Baton Rouge, LA 70803/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Dept. of Building, Civil and Environmental En gineering, Concordia Univ/Montreal QC, H3G1M8/Canada (2 aut.); Traffic and Lighting Division, Los Angeles County Dept. of Public Works, 1000 S. Fremont Ave/Alhambra, CA 91803/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of computing in civil engineering; ISSN 0887-3801; Coden JCCEE5; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; Vol. 20; No. 6; Pp. 410-419; Bibl. 23 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper introduces the concept of microscopic simulation system scalability for the purpose of reducing the computational requirements of microsimulation modeling of large-scale traffic networks. This exploratory stage of research investigates scalability of both lane-changing and car-following behavior. The main objective of the proposed methodology is to create a reduced-scale network (microcosm) that retains most of the significant characteristics of the full-scale network (prototype). To achieve this objective a systematic downsampling procedure has been applied to a case study of a one-lane homogeneous freeway corridor in order to create a geometrically, kinematically, and behaviorally equivalent microcosm environment. This paper examines the scalability of lane-changing behavior, assuming a shifted negative exponential headway distribution, and investigates the scalability of car-following behavior under various operating conditions and downsampling ratios. The paper focuses on the tradeoff between performance and scalability of microscopic simulation systems. For each of the 48 cases considered, optimal behavioral parameters were determined based on two optimization methods: (1) Microscopic based on minimization of trajectory errors in both environments and (2) macroscopic derived from minimization of density errors in both environments throughout the simulation period. The results show that both optimization solutions were consistent in determining the optimal behavioral parameters. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Modèle simulation; Cinématique; Ecoulement trafic; Echantillonnage; Modèle microscopique; Méthodologie; Réseau transport; Exemple; Comportement; Etude expérimentale ED : Road traffic; Simulation model; Kinematics; Traffic flow; Sampling; Microscopic model; Methodology; Transportation network; Example; Behavior; Experimental study SD : Tráfico carretera; Modelo simulación; Cinemática; Flujo tráfico; Muestreo; Modelo microscópico; Metodología; Red transporte; Ejemplo; Conducta; Estudio experimental LO : INIST-572X.354000158823100040 425/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0165041 INIST ET : Queuing models for analysis of traffic adaptive signal control AU : MIRCHANDANI (Pitu B.); NING ZOU AF : Department of Systems and Industrial Engineering, University of Arizona/Tucson, AZ 85721/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); Kittelson and Associates, Inc/Tucson, AZ 85701/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : IEEE Transactions on intelligent transportation systems; ISSN 1524-9050; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; Vol. 8; No. 1; Pp. 50-59; Bibl. 11 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Microsimulation models are normally used to evaluate traffic-adaptive signal control systems. This paper develops an analytical approach for this evaluation based on queuing models. In particular, a queuing model is developed for a simplified adaptive control strategy that is based on rolling horizon scheme, in which a signal serves two movements alternatively. In this strategy, the first movement is served until the queue dissipates, then the second movement is served until the queue dissipates, then the signal goes back to serving the first movement, and this cyclic process repeats. A numerical algorithm is developed in a stochastic context to compute steady-state performance measures such as average delays and expected queue lengths. These results are compared with simulation-based results, and indeed, the analytically derived numerical method predicts well the simulation results. CC : 001D15A; 001D02D11 FD : File attente; Commande adaptative; Système adaptatif; Retard; Gestion trafic; Signalisation routière; Trafic routier; Régime permanent; Longueur file; Modélisation; Analyse signal; Algorithme numérique; Approche probabiliste; Période occupation ED : Queue; Adaptive control; Adaptive system; Delay; Traffic management; Road signalling; Road traffic; Steady state; Queue length; Modeling; Signal analysis; Numerical algorithm; Probabilistic approach; Busy period SD : Fila espera; Control adaptativo; Sistema adaptativo; Retraso; Gestión tráfico; Señalización tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Régimen permanente; Longitud hilera; Modelización; Análisis de señal; Algoritmo numérico; Enfoque probabilista; Período ocupacíon LO : INIST-27061.354000146991940060 426/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0150178 INIST ET : Estimating the economic potential for agricultural soil carbon sequestration in the Central United States using an aggregate econometric-process simulation model AU : ANTLE (John M.); CAPALBO (Susan M.); PAUSTIAN (Keith); MD KAMAR ALI; MCCARL (Bruce A.); METTING (F. Blaine); RICE (Charles) AF : Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics, Montana State University, PO Box 172920/Bozeman, MT 59717-2920/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 4 aut.); Department of Soil and Crop Sciences and Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University/Fort Collins, MT/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Texas A & M University/College Station, TX/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/Richland, WA/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Kansas State University/Manhattan, KS/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Climatic change; ISSN 0165-0009; Coden CLCHDX; Pays-Bas; Da. 2007; Vol. 80; No. 1-2; Pp. 145-171; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : The purpose of this paper is to develop and apply a new method to assess economic potential for agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation. This method uses secondary economic data and conventional econometric production models, combined with estimates of soil carbon stocks derived from biophysical simulation models such as Century, to construct economic simulation models that estimate economic potential for carbon sequestration. -Using this method, simulations for the central United States show that reduction in fallow and conservation tillage adoption in the wheat-pasture system could generate up to about 1.7 million MgC/yr, whereas increased adoption of conservation tillage in the corn-soy-feed system could generate up to about 6.2 million MgC/yr at a price of $200/MgC. About half of this potential could be achieved at relatively low carbon prices (in the range of $50 per ton). The model used in this analysis produced estimates of economic potential for soil carbon sequestration potential similar to results produced by much more data-intensive, field-scale models, suggesting that this simpler, aggregate modeling approach can produce credible estimates of soil carbon sequestration potential. Carbon rates were found to vary substantially over the region. Using average carbon rates for the region, the model produced carbon sequestration estimates within about 10% of those based on county-specific carbon rates, suggesting that effects of spatial heterogeneity in carbon rates may average out over a large region such as the central United States. However, the average carbon rates produced large prediction errors for individual counties, showing that estimates of carbon rates do need to be matched to the spatial scale of analysis. Transaction costs were found to have a potentially important impact on soil carbon supply at low carbon prices, particularly when carbon rates are low, but this effect diminishes as carbon prices increase. CC : 002A14D06; 002A32B03B3 FD : Sol agricole; Séquestration carbone; Analyse économique; Impact économique; Potentiel; Etats Unis; Centre; Modélisation; Modèle macroéconométrique; Modèle simulation; Modèle agrégé; Milieu continental; Gaz effet serre; Mesure agri-environnementale; Système agraire; Système exploitation agricole; Carbone dioxyde; Région économique; Modèle orienté processus; Mitigation; Région agricole FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique; Modèle mathématique; Econométrie; Economie mathématique; Modèle économétrique; Mathématiques appliquées; Economie environnement; Macroéconomie; Economie agricole; Science du sol; Région géographique ED : Agricultural soil; Carbon sequestration; Economic analysis; Economic impact; Potential; United States; Center; Modeling; Macroeconometric model; Simulation model; Aggregate model; Continental environment; Greenhouse gas; Agri-environmental measure; Agricultural system; Farming system; Carbon dioxide; Economic region; Process-oriented model; Mitigation; Agricultural region EG : North America; America; Mathematical model; Econometrics; Mathematical economy; Econometric model; Applied mathematics; Environment economy; Macroeconomics; Agricultural economics; Soil science; Geographical division SD : Suelo agrícola; Secuestro carbono; Análisis económico; Impacto económico; Potencial; Estados Unidos; Centro; Modelización; Modelo macroeconométrico; Modelo simulación; Modelo agregado; Medio continental; Gas efecto invernadero; Medida agroambiental; Sistema agrario; Sistema de explotación agrícola; Carbono dióxido; Region económica; Modelo orientado proceso; Mitigación; Región agrícola LO : INIST-17218.354000159800070090 427/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0130212 INIST ET : Gender differences in hospital mortality and use of percutaneous coronary intervention in acute myocardial infarction : Microsimulation analysis of the 1999 nationwide french hospitals database AU : MILCENT (Carine); DORMONT (Brigitte); DURAND-ZALESKI (Isabelle); STEG (Philippe Gabriel) AF : PSE Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques (L'Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, (cole Normale Superieure, École Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)/Paris/France (1 aut.); University of Paris-Dauphine, Paris, France, and the Institute of Health Economics and Management/Lausanne/Suisse (2 aut.); AP-HP, Henri Mondor Hospital, Department of Public Health/Paris/France (3 aut.); Assistance Publique-Hopitaux de Paris, Hôpital Bichat-Claude Bernard, Department of Cardiology/Paris/France (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Circulation : (New York, N.Y.); ISSN 0009-7322; Coden CIRCAZ; Etats-Unis; Da. 2007; Vol. 115; No. 7; Pp. 833-839; Bibl. 33 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background-Women with acute myocardial infarction have a higher hospital mortality rate than men. This difference has been ascribed to their older age, more frequent comorbidities, and less frequent use of revascularization. The aim of this study is to assess these factors in relation to excess mortality in women. Methods and Results-All hospital admissions in France with a discharge diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction were extracted from the national payment database. Logistic regression on mortality was performed for age, comorbidities, and coronary interventions. Nonparametric microsimulation models estimated the percutaneous coronary intervention and mortality rates that women would experience if they were &dquot;treated like men.&dquot; Data were analyzed from 74 389 patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction, 30.0% of whom were women. Women were older (75 versus 63 years of age; P<0.001) and had a higher rate of hospital mortality (14.8% versus 6.1%; P<0.0001) than men. Percutaneous coronary interventions were more frequent in men (7.4% versus 4.8%; 24.4% versus 14.2% with stent; P<0.001). Mortality adjusted for age and comorbidities was higher in women (P<0.001), with an excess adjusted absolute mortality of 1.95%. Simulation models related 0.46% of this excess to reduced use of procedures. Survival benefit related to percutaneous coronary intervention was lower among women. Conclusions-The difference in mortality rate between men and women with acute myocardial infarction is due largely to the different age structure of these populations. However, age-adjusted hospital mortality was higher for women and was associated with a lower rate of percutaneous coronary intervention. Simulations suggest that women would derive benefit from more frequent use of percutaneous coronary intervention, although these procedures appear less protective in women than in men. CC : 002B12B03; 002B12A03; 002B12B05B FD : Appareil circulatoire pathologie; Cardiopathie coronaire; Infarctus myocarde; Mortalité; Voie percutanée; Base donnée; Dilatation instrumentale; Epidémiologie; Revascularisation; Homme FG : Myocarde pathologie ED : Cardiovascular disease; Coronary heart disease; Myocardial infarction; Mortality; Percutaneous route; Database; Instrumental dilatation; Epidemiology; Revascularization; Human EG : Myocardial disease SD : Aparato circulatorio patología; Cardiopatía coronaria; Infarto miocardio; Mortalidad; Vía percutánea; Base dato; Dilatación instrumental; Epidemiología; Revascularización; Hombre LO : INIST-5907.354000145584400050 428/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0101509 INIST ET : Simulation of daily activity patterns incorporating interactions within households : Algorithm overview and performance AU : PRIBYL (Ondrej); GOULIAS (Konstadinos G.) AF : Czech Technical University of Prague, Faculty of Transportation Sciences, Department of Applied Mathematics, Na Florenci 25/Prague 110 00/Tchèque, République (1 aut.); Department of Geography, University of California, 3611 Ellison Hall/Santa Barbara, CA 93106-6230/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; No. 1926; Pp. 135-141; Bibl. 23 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Activity-based approaches to travel demand analysis have gained attention in the past few years and rapidly created the need to develop alternative microsimulation models for comparisons. In this paper, one such example simulates an individual's daily activity-travel patterns and incorporates the interactions among members of households. This model uses several tools to simulate the activity patterns, including a new method to extract activity patterns from data and decision trees to take into account personal and household characteristics. The model outputs are the individuals' daily activity patterns on a detailed temporal scale. These patterns respect individuals' constraints, which are implicitly embedded in the simulated activity and travel schedules via the intrahousehold interactions. This model was evaluated with data from 1,500 persons in Centre County, Pennsylvania, collected during fall 2002 and spring 2003. CC : 001D15A FD : Transport voyageur; Analyse comportementale; Ménage; Voyage; Etude comparative; Modèle simulation; Activité; Demande transport; Interaction; Performance ED : Passenger transportation; Behavioral analysis; Household; Travel; Comparative study; Simulation model; Activity; Transport demand; Interaction; Performance SD : Transporte pasajero; Análisis conductual; Familia; Viaje; Estudio comparativo; Modelo simulación; Actividad; Demanda transporte; Interacción; Rendimiento LO : INIST-10459B.354000159316380160 429/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0101505 INIST ET : Multiagent learning-based approach to transit assignment problem : A prototype AU : WAHBA (Mohammed); SHALABY (Amer) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 Saint George Street/Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; No. 1926; Pp. 96-105; Bibl. 34 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper presents an operational prototype of an innovative framework for the transit assignment problem, structured in a multiagent way and inspired by a learning-based approach. The proposed framework is based on representing passengers and their learning and decision-making activities explicitly. The underlying hypothesis is that individual passengers are expected to adjust their behavior (i.e., trip choices) according to their experience with transit system performance. A hypothetical transit network, which consists of 22 routes and 194 stops, has been developed within a microsimulation platform (Paramics). A population of 3,000 passengers was generated and synthesized to model the transit assignment process in the morning peak period. Using reinforcement learning to represent passengers' adaptation and accounting for differences in passengers' preferences and the dynamics of the transit network, the prototype has demonstrated that the proposed approach can simultaneously predict how passengers will choose their routes and estimate the total passenger travel cost in a congested network as well as loads on different transit routes. CC : 001D15A FD : Transport voyageur; Analyse comportementale; Résolution problème; Prototype; Système multiagent; Apprentissage; Affectation trafic; Modèle simulation; Méthodologie; Résultat ED : Passenger transportation; Behavioral analysis; Problem solving; Prototype; Multiagent system; Learning; Traffic assignment; Simulation model; Methodology; Result SD : Transporte pasajero; Análisis conductual; Resolución problema; Prototipo; Sistema multiagente; Aprendizaje; Afectación tráfico; Modelo simulación; Metodología; Resultado LO : INIST-10459B.354000159316380120 430/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0092731 INIST ET : Agent-based modeling and analysis of hurricane evacuation procedures for the Florida keys AU : XUWEI CHEN; MEAKER (John W.); ZHAN (F. Benjamin) AF : Texas Center for Geographic Information Science (TxGISci), Department of Geography, Texas State University, 601 University Dr/San Marcos, TX 78666/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Natural hazards : (Dordrecht); ISSN 0921-030X; Pays-Bas; Da. 2006; Vol. 38; No. 3; Pp. 321-338; Bibl. 1 p.3/4 LA : Anglais EA : The unique geography of the Florida Keys presents both high risk of hurricane landfall and exceptional vulnerability to the effects of a hurricane strike. Inadequate hurricane shelters in the Keys make evacuation the only option for most residents, but the sole access road can become impassable well in advance of a major storm. These extraordinary conditions create challenges for emergency managers who must ensure that appropriate emergency plans are in place and to ensure that an orderly exodus can occur without stranding large numbers of people along an evacuation route with inadequate shelter capacity. This study attempts to answer two questions: (1) What is the minimum clearance time needed to evacuate all residents participating in an evacuation of the Florida Keys in advance of a major hurricane for 92,596 people - a population size calculated based on the 2000 US Census population data, census undercounts, and the number of tourists estimated to be in the area? (2) If a hurricane makes landfall in the Keys while the evacuation is in progress, how many residents will need to be accommodated if the evacuation route becomes impassable? The authors conducted agent-based microsimulations to answer the questions. Simulation results suggest that it takes 20 h and 11 min to 20 h and 14 min to evacuate the 92,596 people. This clearance time is less than the Florida state mandated 24-h clearance time limit. If one assumes that people evacuate in a 48-h period and the traffic flow from the Keys would follow that observed in the evacuation from Hurricane Georges, then a total of 460 people may be stranded if the evacuation route becomes impassable 48 h after an evacuation order is issued. If the evacuation route becomes impassable 40 h after an evacuation order is issued, then 14,000 people may be stranded. CC : 226B02; 001E01O02 FD : Ouragan; Tempête; Population; Planification; Simulation; Protection; Ordre évacuation; Microsimulation; Florida Keys FG : Comté Monroe Floride; Floride; Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord ED : hurricanes; storms; communities; planning; simulation; protection; Florida Keys EG : Monroe County Florida; Florida; United States; North America SD : Huracán; Tempestad; Población; Planificación; Simulación LO : INIST-21731.354000153169880020 431/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0073665 INIST ET : Energy risk management and value at risk modeling AU : SADEGHI (Mehdi); SHAVVALPOUR (Saeed) AF : Economics department, Imam Sadiq University, P.B. 14655-159/Tehran/Iran (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2006; Vol. 34; No. 18; Pp. 3367-3373; Bibl. 14 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The value of energy trades can change over time with market conditions and underlying price variables. The rise of competition and deregulation in energy markets has led to relatively free energy markets that are characterized by high price shifts. Within oil markets the volatile oil price environment after OPEC agreements in the 1970s requires a risk quantification.&dquot; Value-at-risk&dquot; has become an essential tool for this end when quantifying market risk. There are various methods for calculating value-at-risk. The methods we introduced in this paper are Historical Simulation ARMA Forecasting and Variance-Covariance based on GARCH modeling approaches. The results show that among various approaches the HSAF methodology presents more efficient results, so that if the level of confidence is 99%, the value-at-risk calculated through HSAF methodology is greater than actual price changes in almost 97.6 percent of the forecasting period. CC : 001D06A01C1; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Economie énergie; Gestion risque; Prix; Modèle économétrique; Méthodologie; Valeur exposée ED : Energy economy; Risk management; Price; Econometric model; Methodology; Value at risk SD : Economía energía; Gestión riesgo; Precio; Modelo econométrico; Metodología LO : INIST-16417.354000143074340010 432/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0069726 INIST ET : Non-parametric tests of productive efficiency with errors-in-variables AU : KUOSMANEN (Timo); POST (Thierry); SCHOLTES (Stefan) AF : Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group, Wageningen University, P. O. Box 8130/6700 EW Wageningen/Pays-Bas (1 aut.); Rolterdam School of Economics and Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), Erasmus University Rotterdam, P.O. Box 1738/3000 DR Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (2 aut.); Judge Business School, University of Cambridge/Cambridge CB2 IAG/Royaume-Uni (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2007; Vol. 136; No. 1; Pp. 131-162; Bibl. 1 p.1/2 LA : Anglais EA : We develop a non-parametric test of productive efficiency that accounts for errors-in-variables, following the approach of Varian. [1985. Nonparametric analysis of optimizing behavior with measurement error. Journal of Econometrics 30(1/2), 445-458]. The test is based on the general Pareto-Koopmans notion of efficiency, and does not require price data. Statistical inference is based on the sampling distribution of the L∞ norm of errors. The test statistic can be computed using a simple enumeration algorithm. The finite sample properties of the test are analyzed by means of a Monte Carlo simulation using real-world data of large EU commercial banks. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02H02H; 001D01A03; 001D01A13 FD : Test non paramétrique; Test hypothèse; Efficacité test; Analyse enveloppement donnée; Estimation non paramétrique; Erreur mesure; Econométrie; Production; Valeur extrême; Méthode statistique; Méthode Monte Carlo; Efficacité estimateur; Modèle économétrique; Analyse statistique; Simulation numérique; Erreur dans variable ED : Non parametric test; Hypothesis test; Test efficiency; Data envelopment analysis; Non parametric estimation; Measurement error; Econometrics; Production; Extreme value; Statistical method; Monte Carlo method; Estimator efficiency; Econometric model; Statistical analysis; Numerical simulation; Error in variable SD : Prueba no paramétrica; Test hipótesis; Eficacia test; Análisis envolvimiento datos; Estimación no paramétrica; Error medida; Econometría; Producción; Valor extremo; Método estadístico; Método Monte Carlo; Eficacia estimador; Modelo econométrico; Análisis estadístico; Simulación numérica LO : INIST-16460.354000159693150060 433/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0034652 INIST ET : Applying variable speed limits and the potential for crash migration AU : ABDEL-ATY (Mohamed); DILMORE (Jeremy); HSIA (Liang) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Central Florida, 4000 Central Florida Boulevard/Orlando, FL 32816/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); Florida Department of Transportation, MS 90, 605 Suwannee Street/Tallahassee, FL 32399-0450/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; No. 1953; Pp. 21-30; Bibl. 22 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Variable speed limits (VSL) were applied on 1-4 in Orlando, Florida, through microsimulation to reduce crash likelihood. VSL application improved safety by simultaneously implementing lower speed limits upstream and higher speed limits downstream of the location where crash likelihood was observed in real time. Real-time crash likelihood was calculated with the use of models developed in previous research. The improvement was realized in the case of medium- to high-speed regimes on the freeway, but no benefit was achieved in low-speed situations; that is, there was no substantial safety benefit from applying VSL in congested situations. In addition to the safety benefit, travel time was also reduced. The simulation results showed a potential for crash migration. The crash potential appeared to relocate to a location downstream of the detector of interest. Upstream, little change occurred, except at the location where the change in speed took place. While there are some crash migration effects, the overall safety of the freeway was improved due to VSL application. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Limitation vitesse; Accident circulation; Sécurité trafic; Floride; Autoroute; Système intelligent; Modèle simulation; Scénario; Essai; Application; Durée trajet; Temps réel FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Speed limit; Traffic accident; Traffic safety; Florida; Freeway; Intelligent system; Simulation model; Script; Test; Application; Travel time; Real time EG : United States; North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Limitación velocidad; Accidente tráfico; Seguridad tráfico; Florida; Autopista; Sistema inteligente; Modelo simulación; Argumento; Ensayo; Aplicación; Duración trayecto; Tiempo real LO : INIST-10459B.354000158822780030 434/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0034590 INIST ET : Modelling the world oil market : Assessment of a quarterly econometric model AU : DDES (Stéphane); KARADELOGLOU (Pavlos); KAUFMANN (Robert K.); SHNCHEZ (Marcelo) AF : European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29/60311 Frankfurt-am-Main/Allemagne (1 aut., 2 aut., 4 aut.); Center for Energy & Environmental Studies, Boston University/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2007; Vol. 35; No. 1; Pp. 178-191; Bibl. 24 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper describes a structural econometric model of the world oil market that can be used to analyse oil market developments and risks. Oil demand depends on domestic economic activity and the real price of oil. Oil supply for non-OPEC producers, based on competitive behaviours, is constrained by geological and institutional conditions. Oil prices are determined by a &dquot;price rule&dquot; that includes market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Policy simulations indicate that oil demand and non-OPEC supply are rather inelastic to changes in price, while OPEC decisions about quota and capacity utilisation have a significant, immediate impact on oil prices. CC : 001D06A01C2B; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Economie pétrolière; Pétrole; Etude marché; Demande; Approvisionnement; Prix; Modèle économétrique; Analyse tendance; Simulation; Prévision; Analyse risque ED : Oil economy; Petroleum; Market survey; Demand; Supply; Price; Econometric model; Trend analysis; Simulation; Forecasting; Risk analysis SD : Economía petrolera; Petróleo; Estudio mercado; Petición; Aprovisionamiento; Precio; Modelo econométrico; Análisis tendencia; Simulación; Previsión; Análisis riesgo LO : INIST-16417.354000158872510140 435/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0024776 INIST ET : Nonparametric estimation of mean-squared prediction error in nested-error regression models AU : HALL (Peter); MAITI (Tapabrata) AF : Australian National University/Australie; Iowa State University/Etats-Unis DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Annals of statistics; ISSN 0090-5364; Coden ASTSC7; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; Vol. 34; No. 4; Pp. 1733-1750; Bibl. 32 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Nested-error regression models are widely used for analyzing clustered data. For example, they are often applied to two-stage sample surveys, and in biology and econometrics. Prediction is usually the main goal of such analyses, and mean-squared prediction error is the main way in which prediction performance is measured. In this paper we suggest a new approach to estimating mean-squared prediction error. We introduce a matched-moment, double-bootstrap algorithm, enabling the notorious underestimation of the naive mean-squared error estimator to be substantially reduced. Our approach does not require specific assumptions about the distributions of errors. Additionally, it is simple and easy to apply. This is achieved through using Monte Carlo simulation to implicitly develop formulae which, in a more conventional approach, would be derived laboriously by mathematical arguments. CC : 001A02H02H; 001A02H02J FD : Estimation non paramétrique; Erreur estimation; Déconvolution; Erreur quadratique moyenne; Modèle emboîté; Modèle régression; Biologie; Analyse performance; Estimation statistique; Bootstrap; Méthode Monte Carlo; Méthode statistique; Théorie prédiction; Modèle économétrique; Simulation numérique; Effet mixte; Prédicteur empirique; Meilleur prédicteur linéaire sans biais; Réduction bias ED : Non parametric estimation; Estimation error; Deconvolution; Mean square error; Nested model; Regression model; Biology; Performance analysis; Statistical estimation; Bootstrap; Monte Carlo method; Statistical method; Prediction theory; Econometric model; Numerical simulation; Empirical predictor; Best linear unbiased predictor; Bias reduction SD : Estimación no paramétrica; Error estimación; Desconvolución; Error medio cuadrático; Modelo encajado; Modelo regresión; Biología; Análisis eficacia; Estimación estadística; Bootstrap; Método Monte Carlo; Método estadístico; Modelo econométrico; Simulación numérica LO : INIST-3079A1.354000159046430050 436/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0024128 BDSP FT : Le non recours à la couverture maladie universelle complémentaire des allocataires du Rmi : mesure et analyse AF : Observatoire des Non-Recours aux Droits et Services. (O.D.E.N.O.R.E.). Saint Martin d'Hères./France; Fonds de Financement de la Protection Complémentaire de la Couverture Universelle du Risque Maladie. Paris./France (command.) DT : Livre; Niveau monographique SO : Le non recours à la couverture maladie universelle complémentaire des allocataires du Rmi : mesure et analyse; France; Paris: Fonds cmu : Saint-Martin d'Hères : ODENORE; Da. 2006; Pp. 32 p. LA : Français FA : L'ODENORE (MSH-Alpes, CNRS, IEP Grenoble) montre, à partir d'informations issues de Cpam et de Caf, ainsi que d'entretiens téléphoniques avec des bénéficiaires du RMI, pourquoi ces derniers n'ont pas eu recours au bénéfice de la CMU complémentaire, alors qu'ils y ont accès de plein droit CC : 002B30A11 FD : Ménage; Assurance; Secteur privé; Evaluation; Entretien; Modèle économétrique; France; Simulation FG : Europe ED : Household; Insurance; Private sector; Evaluation; Interview; Econometric model; France; Simulation EG : Europe SD : Familia; Seguro; Sector privado; Evaluación; Entrevista; Modelo econométrico; Francia; Simulación LO : BDSP/IRDES-B5649 437/793 NO : PASCAL 07-0024127 BDSP FT : Comprendre les causes du non-recours à la CMUC : rapport final AU : DUFOUR-KIPPELEN (S.); LEGAL (A.); WITTWER (J.) AF : Université Paris Dauphine. Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion des Organisations de Santé. (L.E.G.O.S.). Paris./France; Fonds de Financement de la Protection Complémentaire de la Couverture Universelle du Risque Maladie. Paris./France (command.) DT : Livre; Niveau monographique SO : Comprendre les causes du non-recours à la CMUC : rapport final; France; Paris: Fonds cmu; Da. 2006; Pp. 79 p. LA : Français FA : Le LEGOS (Université Paris - Dauphine) analyse les origines du non-recours à la CMU complémentaire, à partir des données de l'IRDES et avec la collaboration du bureau du RMI du Département de Paris (espace insertion du XIe arrondissement). Le non-recours concerne environ le quart des bénéficiaires potentiels CC : 002B30A11 FD : Ménage; Assurance; Secteur privé; Evaluation; Entretien; Modèle économétrique; France; Paris; Simulation FG : Europe; Ile de France ED : Household; Insurance; Private sector; Evaluation; Interview; Econometric model; France; Paris; Simulation EG : Europe; Ile-de-France SD : Familia; Seguro; Sector privado; Evaluación; Entrevista; Modelo econométrico; Francia; París; Simulación LO : BDSP/IRDES-B5648 438/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-07-13165 INIST FT : Les concubins et l'impôt sur le revenu en France ET : (Unmarried couples and income taxes in France) AU : LEGENDRE (Francois); THIBAULT (Florence) AF : Université Paris-XII/France (1 aut.); CEPN (Université Paris-XIII et CNRS)/France (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Economie et statistique; ISSN 0336-1454; France; Da. 2007; No. 401; 3-21, 61-64 [23 p.]; Abs. anglais/allemand/espagnol; Bibl. 1 p. LA : Français FA : La législation fiscale française ne permet pas aux couples de concubins de déclarer ensemble leurs revenus à l'impôt sur le revenu. Ils perdent ainsi, par rapport aux couples mariés, le bénéfice du quotient conjugal, dispositif susceptible de réduire l'impôt supporté par un couple. L'examen de la législation montre que le quotient conjugal joue pleinement lorsque la structure des apports de ressources dans le couple est fortement dissymétrique. Il permet de repérer les dispositifs qui amoindirssent les effets du quotient conjugal: le mécanisme de la décote et celui du minimum de recouvrement. Le mariage peut alors se traduire par des pertes financières. Dans certains cas, le fait pour le moins favorisé des deux conjoints de ne plus pouvoir bénéficier de la prime pour l'emploi en cas de mariage peut également se traduire par une perte. Pour conclure à l'impact effectif du mariage en terme de perte ou de gain, il importe d'apprécier la fréquence réelle des configurations des couples correspondantes, et de simuler le mariag des couples de concubins : un modèle de microsimulation - Myriade - à partir de la situation réelle des couples en 2005 montre que le concubinage, s'il est largement répandu, reste plus particulièrement prégnant chez les personnes les plus modestes. La simulation du mariage des concubins conduit à un gain au mariage modeste : la dissymétrie des apports et le niveau de vie, plus faibles che les concubins, contribuent largement à l'expliquer. CC : 52146A; 52130; 521 FD : France; Impôt sur le revenu; Mariage; Effet pervers; Couple; Concubinage ED : France; Income Taxes; Marriage; Unintended Consequences; Couple LO : INIST-24228.354000162409140010 439/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0539815 INIST ET : Development of an optimization methodology for adaptive traffic signal control at diamond interchanges AU : FANG (Fang Clara); ELEFTERIADOU (Lily) AF : Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. of Hartford/West Hartford, CT 06117/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Dept. of Civil and Coastal Engineering, Univ. of Florida/Gainesville, FL 32611/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; Vol. 132; No. 8; Pp. 629-637; Bibl. 16 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This research develops a methodology and a corresponding implementation algorithm to provide optimal signal control of diamond interchanges in response to real-time traffic fluctuations. The problem is formulated as to find a phase sequencing decision with a phase duration that makes a prespecified performance measure minimized over a finite horizon that rolls forward. The problem is solved by a forward dynamic programming (DP) method. The optimal signal switches over each 2.5 s interval are found for each horizon of 10 s. The optimization process is based on the advanced vehicle information obtained from loop detectors set back a certain distance from the stop line. Vehicle trajectories from detections till future arrivals and departures is modeled at the microscopic level to estimate the traffic flows at the stop-line for each horizon. The DP algorithm is coded in C++ language and dynamically linked to AIMSUN, a stochastic microsimulation package, for evaluation. The simulation results have exhibited that the DP algorithm is superior to PASSER III and TRANSYT-7F in handling demand fluctuations for medium to high flow scenarios when the field demand is increased from the one used in off-line optimization. The performance of the three algorithms is almost identical if the simulation demand is similar to off-line demand situation and does not vary much. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Ecoulement trafic; Echangeur routier; Méthodologie; Optimisation; Feu signalisation; Algorithme; Contrôle optimal; Formulation; Simulation; Implémentation; Etude comparative; Recommandation ED : Road traffic; Traffic flow; Interchange; Methodology; Optimization; Traffic lights; Algorithm; Optimal control (mathematics); Formulation; Simulation; Implementation; Comparative study; Recommendation SD : Tráfico carretera; Flujo tráfico; Cruce a diferentes niveles; Metodología; Optimización; Semáforo; Algoritmo; Control óptimo (matemáticas); Formulación; Simulación; Implementación; Estudio comparativo; Recomendación LO : INIST-572E.354000157078300040 440/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0515410 INIST ET : Estimating energy-augmenting technological change in developing country industries AU : SANSTAD (Alan H.); ROY (Joyashree); SATHAYE (Jayant A.); HOUGHTON (John) AF : Mailstop 90-4000, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, #1 Cyclotron Rd/Berkeley, CA 94720/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 3 aut.); Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, II, Central Park/Jadavpur, Kolkata 700032/Inde (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy economics; ISSN 0140-9883; Coden EECODR; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2006; Vol. 28; No. 5-6; Pp. 720-729; Bibl. 18 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Assumptions regarding the magnitude and direction of energy-related technological change have long been recognized as critical determinants of the outputs and policy conclusions derived from integrated assessment models. Particularly in the case of developing countries, however, empirical analysis of technological change has lagged behind simulation modeling. This paper presents estimates of sectoral productivity trends and energy-augmenting technological change for several energy-intensive industries in India and South Korea, and, for comparison, the United States. The key findings are substantial heterogeneity among both industries and countries, and a number of cases of declining energy efficiency. The results are subject to certain technical qualifications both in regards to the methodology and to the direct comparison to integrated assessment parameterizations. Nevertheless, they highlight the importance of closer attention to the empirical basis for common modeling assumptions. CC : 001D06A01C1; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Economie énergie; Intensité énergétique; Rendement énergétique; Changement technologique; Secteur secondaire; Modèle économétrique; Fonction coût; Analyse tendance; Système autonome; Corée du Sud; Inde; Etats Unis; Autonomous energy efficiency improvment; Modèle Translog FG : Corée; Asie; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Energy economy; Energy intensity; Energetic efficiency; Technological change; Secondary sector; Econometric model; Cost function; Trend analysis; Autonomous system; South Korea; India; United States EG : Korea; Asia; North America; America SD : Economía energía; Rendimiento energético; Cambio tecnológico; Sector secundario; Modelo econométrico; Función coste; Análisis tendencia; Sistema autónomo; Corea del sur; India; Estados Unidos LO : INIST-18231.354000157227630120 441/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0514845 BDSP FT : Les effets des réformes des retraites sur les inégalités de genre en France AU : BONNET (C.); BUFFETEAU (S.); GODEFROY (P.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : POPULATION; ISSN 0032-4663; France; Da. 2006-01/2006-02; Vol. 61; No. 1-2; Pp. 45-76; Bibl. 2 p.; fig., tabl. LA : Français FA : Alors que la problématique des écarts entre les retraites des hommes et celles des femmes et de leurs évolutions est relativement peu abordée en France, les quelques études existantes concluent cependant à une réduction des écarts entre hommes et femmes à l'horizon 2040. Cet article s'inscrit dans la lignée de ces travaux en s'interrogeant sur un éventuel impact différencié selon le sexe des réformes des retraites adoptées en France en 1993 et en 2003. Pour cela, on projette les droits à la retraite des générations 1965-1974 à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation dynamique Destinie dans trois scénarios : avant la réforme de 1993 ; après la réforme de 1993 et avant celle de 2003 ; après la réforme de 2003. On montre que, malgré l'absence de dispositions spécifiques selon le sexe, ces réformes semblent avoir un impact plus négatif sur les pensions des femmes que sur celles des hommes. En effet, sans les réformes et sous des hypothèses de maintien des tendances actuelles quant à l'activité, les hommes des générations 1965-1974 percevraient une pension moyenne 1,47 fois plus élevée que celle des femmes. Avec la réforme de 1993, le ratio s'établit à 1,54 et avec celle de 2003 à 1,59. (Résumé d'auteur) CC : 002B30A11 FD : Homme; Femme; Classe sociale; Inégalité; Retraite; Activité professionnelle; Emploi; Salaire; Donnée statistique; Projection perspective; France FG : Europe ED : Human; Woman; Social class; Inequality; Retirement; Professional activity; Employment; Wage; Statistical data; Perspective projection; France EG : Europe SD : Hombre; Mujer; Clase social; Desigualdad; Jubilación; Actividad profesional; Empleo; Salario; Dato estadístico; Proyección perspectiva; Francia LO : BDSP/IRDES-P27/1, CODBAR 0050583 442/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0514817 BDSP FT : (Analyse de microsimulation des réformes de protection sociale dans des pays membres de l'Union européenne) ET : Welfare reform in European countries : a microsimulation analysis AU : IMMERVOLL (H.); JACOBSEN KLEVEN (H.); THUSTRUP KREINER (C.L.); SAEZ (E.) AF : Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques. (O.C.D.E.). Direction pour l'Education l'Emploi le Travail et les Affaires Sociales. Paris./France DT : Livre; Niveau monographique SO : Welfare reform in European countries : a microsimulation analysis; France; Paris: OCDE; Da. 2005; Pp. 57 p. LA : Anglais FA : Ce document évalue l'impact sur les transferts sociaux et la répartition des revenus de deux types de réformes de la protection sociale dans 15 pays membres (avant l'élargissement) de l'Union Européenne. Ces réformes n'ont pas d'incidence sur les recettes publiques et elles sont financées par un relèvement général et uniforme du taux marginal des gains. La première réforme distribue uniformément entre tous les citoyens le surcroît de recettes fiscales (protection sociale traditionnelle), alors que la seconde distribue uniformément les recettes fiscales uniquement entre les travailleurs (prestations liées à l'emploi). On construit un modèle simple de l'offre de main-d'oeuvre prenant en compte les réactions aux prélèvements sociaux et aux transferts tant à la marge intensive qu'à la marge extensive. On applique alors le modèle EUROMOD pour décrire les systèmes d'aide sociale et d'imposition actuellement en place dans tous les pays de l'Union européenne et on utilise les élasticités calibrés de l'offre de main-d'oeuvre aux marges intensive et extensive pour analyser les effets des deux réformes de la protection sociale. On évalue de manière quantitative le compromis équité-efficacité pour une série de paramètres d'élasticité. Nous examinons les implications pratiques pour l'action des pouvoirs publics de la politique européenne d'aide sociale (R.A.) CC : 002B30A11 FD : Protection sociale; Revenu individuel; Politique fiscale; Travail; Méthodologie; Etude comparative; Pays industrialisé; OCDE; Simulation ED : Welfare aids; Personal income; Fiscal policy; Work; Methodology; Comparative study; Industrialized country; OECD; Simulation SD : Protección social; Renta personal; Política fiscal; Trabajo; Metodología; Estudio comparativo; País industrializado; OCDE; Simulación LO : BDSP/IRDES-B5542, CODBAR 0047752 443/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0496125 INIST ET : Forecasting nonlinear crude oil futures prices AU : MOSHIRI (Saeed); FOROUTAN (Faezeh) AF : Department of Economics, University of Manitoba/Winnipeg, Manitoba, R3T 5T8/Canada (1 aut.); University of Tarbiat Modarres/Tehran/Iran (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : The Energy journal : (Cambridge, MA); ISSN 0195-6574; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; Vol. 27; No. 4; Pp. 81-95; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : The movements in oil prices are very complex and, therefore, seem to be unpredictable. However, one of the main challenges facing econometric models is to forecast such seemingly unpredictable economic series. Traditional linear structural models have not been promising when used for oil price forecasting. Although linear and nonlinear time series models have performed much better in forecasting oil prices, there is still room for improvement. If the data generating process is nonlinear, applying linear models could result in large forecast errors. Model specification in nonlinear modeling, however, can be very case dependent and time-consuming. In this paper, we model and forecast daily crude oil futures prices from 1983 to 2003, listed in NYMEX, applying ARIMA and GARCH models. We then test for chaos using embedding dimension, BDS(L), Lyapunov exponent, and neural networks tests. Finally, we set up a nonlinear and flexible ANN model to forecast the series. Since the test results indicate that crude oil futures prices follow a complex nonlinear dynamic process, we expect that the ANN model will improve forecasting accuracy. A comparison of the results of the forecasts among different models confirms that this is indeed the case. CC : 001D06A01C2B; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Economie pétrolière; Pétrole; Prix; Marché à terme; Prévision; Modèle économétrique; Variation journalière; Chaos; Modèle non linéaire; Modèle stochastique; Réseau neuronal; Evaluation performance; Simulation; Etude comparative; Modèle GARCH; Modèle ARIMA ED : Oil economy; Petroleum; Price; Time bargain; Forecasting; Econometric model; Daily variation; Chaos; Non linear model; Stochastic model; Neural network; Performance evaluation; Simulation; Comparative study SD : Economía petrolera; Petróleo; Precio; Previsión; Modelo econométrico; Variación diaria; Caos; Modelo no lineal; Modelo estocástico; Red neuronal; Evaluación prestación; Simulación; Estudio comparativo LO : INIST-27340.354000152267160040 444/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0470025 INIST ET : Is the strategic petroleum reserve our ace in the hole? AU : CONSIDINE (Timothy J.) AF : The Pennsylvania State University, 125 Hosier Building/University Park, PA 16802/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : The Energy journal : (Cambridge, MA); ISSN 0195-6574; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; Vol. 27; No. 3; Pp. 91-112; Bibl. 20 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is often touted as a vital asset in mitigating the adverse effects of oil supply disruptions on the economy. The importance of SPR, however, largely depends upon the effect of stock sales on market prices. To address this question, this study develops a monthly econometric model of the world crude oil market. Inventories, consumption, production, and prices for crude oil are determined within a dominant producer pricing framework in which Saudi Arabia adjusts output based upon market demand and competitive fringe supply. The estimation results provide additional support for the dominant producer pricing model for world oil markets and reasonable estimates of short-run supply and demand elasticities. Several model simulations are conducted to assess the impacts of SPR policies. For example, the gradual build-up of the SPR by the Bush Administration resulted in a very small, almost imperceptible increase in world prices. Similarly, the Clinton sale from SPR had minor impacts on market prices. Another simulation indicates that while SPR sales can lower world prices during a supply shock, the required drawdown would be so substantial the reserve would be significantly depleted after just a few months. These findings suggest that once played, the SPR card has modest impacts on world prices and could be easily trumped by actions of other players, including output adjustments by world oil producers. CC : 001D06A01C2B; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Economie pétrolière; Modèle économétrique; Etude marché; Production; Consommation; Stock réserve; Stock sécurité; Vente; Impact économique; Prix; Pétrole; Achat; Etats Unis FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Oil economy; Econometric model; Market survey; Production; Consumption; Security stockpile; Safety stock; Sales; Economic impact; Price; Petroleum; Purchases; United States EG : North America; America SD : Economía petrolera; Modelo econométrico; Estudio mercado; Producción; Consumo; Stock seguridad; Venta; Impacto económico; Precio; Petróleo; Compra; Estados Unidos LO : INIST-27340.354000138867350060 445/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0429082 BDSP FT : Perspectives financières du régime général à l'horizon 2050 AU : BRIDENNE (I.); COUHIN (J.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : RETRAITE ET SOCIETE; ISSN 1167-4687; France; Da. 2006-06; No. 48; Pp. 83-106; Bibl. dissem.; tabl. LA : Français FA : Des outils d'évaluation et d'analyse ont été élaborés pour répondre aux questions soulevées par l'évolution des systèmes de retraite face au vieillissement démographique. Dans ce contexte, la CNAV s'est dotée d'un nouveau modèle de projection des retraites &dquot;Prisme&dquot;. Conçu dans le but d'estimer en projection l'équilibre financier de la branche vieillesse, Prisme est un modèle de microsimulation permettant de projeter les trajectoires des assurés et d'en déduire l'évolution des masses de cotisations et de prestations du régime général. Cet article a pour objectif de présenter les résultats des projections réalisées pour 2050 à l'aide de ce modèle CC : 002B30A11 FD : Homme; Retraite; Donnée statistique; France; Projection perspective; Charges sociales; Population; Sénescence; Simulation; Hypothèse FG : Europe ED : Human; Retirement; Statistical data; France; Perspective projection; Social charges; Population; Senescence; Simulation; Hypothesis EG : Europe SD : Hombre; Jubilación; Dato estadístico; Francia; Proyección perspectiva; Cargas sociales; Población; Senescencia; Simulación; Hipótesis LO : BDSP/FNG-19631, FNCOLL 446/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0425600 INIST ET : Neural network-wavelet microsimulation model for delay and queue length estimation at freeway work zones AU : GHOSH-DASTIDAR (Samanwoy); ADELI (Hojjat) AF : Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Geodetic Science, Ohio State Univ., 470 Hitchcock Hall, 2070 Neil Ave/Columbus, OH 43210/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; Vol. 132; No. 4; Pp. 331-341; Bibl. 34 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Recently, the writers developed a new mesoscopic-wavelet model for simulating freeway traffic flow patterns and extracting congestion characteristics. As an extension of that research, in this paper, a new neural network-wavelet microsimulation model is presented to track the travel time of each individual vehicle for traffic delay and queue length estimation at work zones. The model incorporates the dynamics of a single vehicle in changing traffic flow conditions. The extracted congestion characteristics obtained from the mesoscopic-wavelet model are used in a Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation (BP) neural network for classifying the traffic flow as free flow, transitional flow, and congested flow with stationary queue. The neural network model is trained using simulated data and tested using both simulated and real data. The computational model presented is applied to five examples of freeways with two and three lanes and one lane closure with varying entry flow or demand patterns. The new microsimulation model is more accurate than macroscopic models and substantially more efficient than microscopic models. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B; 001D14O06; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Autoroute; Modèle simulation; Ecoulement trafic; Congestion trafic; Retard; Chantier; Construction routière; Réseau neuronal; Durée trajet; Application; Exemple ED : Road traffic; Freeway; Simulation model; Traffic flow; Traffic congestion; Delay; Working site; Road construction; Neural network; Travel time; Application; Example SD : Tráfico carretera; Autopista; Modelo simulación; Flujo tráfico; Congestión tráfico; Retraso; Taller; Construcción carretera; Red neuronal; Duración trayecto; Aplicación; Ejemplo LO : INIST-572E.354000153060960070 447/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0421177 INIST ET : A fast subsampling method for nonlinear dynamic models AU : HONG (H.); SCAILLET (O.); DUFOUR (Jean-Marie); PERRON (Benoît) AF : Department of Economics, Duke University/Durham, NC 27708-0097/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); HEC - Université de Cenère and FAME, 102 Bd Carl Vogt/1211 Genève/Suisse (2 aut.); CIRANO/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.); CIREQ/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.); Département de sciences économiques, Université de Montréal/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2006; Vol. 133; No. 2; Pp. 557-578; Bibl. 22 ref. LA : Anglais EA : We highlight a fast subsampling method that can be used to provide valid inference in nonlinear dynamic econometric models. This method is based on the subsampling theory proposed by Politis and Romano[A general theory for large sample confidence regions based on subsamples under minimal assumptions, Technical Report 399, Dept of Statistics, Stanford University; Large sample confidence regions based on subsamples under minimal assumptions. Annals of Statistics 22, 2031-2050]. Fast subsampling directly exploits score functions computed on each subsample and avoids recomputing the estimators for each of them. This method is used to approximate the limit distribution of estimators, possibly simulation based, that admit an asymptotic linear representation with both known and unknown rates of convergence. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate the desirable performance and vast improvement in the numerical speed of the fast subsampling method. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02H02M FD : Modèle non linéaire; Modèle dynamique; Estimation statistique; Modèle économétrique; Méthode statistique; Test score; Méthode approchée; Loi limite; Sous échantillonnage; Simulation; Taux convergence; Méthode Monte Carlo; Donnée économique; Région confiance; Fonction score ED : Non linear model; Dynamic model; Statistical estimation; Econometric model; Statistical method; Score test; Approximate method; Limit distribution; Subsampling; Simulation; Convergence rate; Monte Carlo method; Economic data; Confidence region; Score function SD : Modelo no lineal; Modelo dinámico; Estimación estadística; Modelo econométrico; Método estadístico; Método aproximado; Ley límite; Submuestreo; Simulación; Relación convergencia; Método Monte Carlo; Dato económico LO : INIST-16460.354000156993670060 448/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0390193 INIST ET : Forest certification costs and global forest product markets and trade : a general equilibrium analysis AU : JIANBANG GAN AF : Department of Forest Science, Texas A&M University/College Station, TX 77843-2135/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Canadian journal of forest research : (Print); ISSN 0045-5067; Coden CJFRAR; Canada; Da. 2005; Vol. 35; No. 7; Pp. 1731-1743; Abs. français; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais FA : Les impacts du coût de la certification forestière sur la production, le cours et le commerce des produits forestiers ont été évalués à l'aide d'un modèle informatisé d'équilibre général sous divers scénarios définissant la certification dans des contextes tropical, tempéré et mondial. En dépit des ses impacts plus sévères et plus considérables, la certification dans un cadre mondial semble mieux acceptée par les grands pays producteurs de bois que la certification à caractère régional. Les régions qui seraient les plus affectées par la certification mondiale ne seraient pas celles qui produisent le plus de bois mais plutôt, comme en Extrême-Orient, celles qui importent beaucoup plus de produits forestiers qu'elles n'en produisent. Des accroissements de coûts de 5 % à 25 %, attribuables à la certification, entraîneraient un recul de la production mondiale de 0,3 % à 5,1 %, alors que le cours des prix mondiaux afficherait des hausses de 1,6 % à 34,6 % et les impacts sur le marché du bois d'oeuvre et sur celui des pâtes et papiers seraient beaucoup plus modérés. En général, la certification forestière aurait plus d'impact sur le commerce et les prix que sur le volume de production. Alors qu'elle causerait des détournements de flux commerciaux et des effets de substitution entre les forêts tropicales et tempérées et qu'elle affecterait les marchés régionaux de produits forestiers, globalement à l'échelle mondiale la certification forestière n'induirait pas d'effets substantiels de substitution entre les produits du bois et ceux à base d'autres matériaux. La certification forestière peut ne pas parvenir à endiguer le déboisement en milieu tropical à cause de possibles fuites (déboisement ailleurs) associées à la certification dans un contexte régional et de changements d'affectation territoriale résultant de modifications sectorielles de production à l'échelle régionale. CC : 002A33A03 FD : Certification; Coût; Commerce international; Echange commercial; Marché biens services; Marché international; Analyse macroéconomique; Modèle équilibre général; Production forestière; Produit forestier; Analyse coût; Etude marché; Impact économique; Pays producteur; Zone tempérée; Zone tropicale; Forêt tropicale; Filière bois; Industrie bois; Mondialisation; Modèle macroéconométrique; Simulation; Industrie forestière; Protection de la forêt; Forêt de production; Forêt tempérée FG : Protection environnement; Développement durable; Marché économique; Economie forestière; Foresterie; Modèle économétrique; Econométrie; Economie mathématique; Economie internationale; Gestion forestière; Gestion durable ED : Certification; Costs; International trade; Trade; Goods services market; International market; Macroeconomic analysis; General equilibrium model; Forest production; Forest product; Cost analysis; Market survey; Economic impact; Producing country; Temperate zone; Tropical zone; Tropical forest; Wood line; Wood industry; Globalization; Macroeconometric model; Simulation; Forest products industry; Forest protection; Production forests; Temperate forests EG : Environmental protection; Sustainable development; Economic market; Forest economics; Forestry; Econometric model; Econometrics; Mathematical economy; International economy; Forest management; Sustainable management SD : Certificación; Coste; Comercio internacional; Intercambio comercial; Mercado bienes servicios; Mercado internacional; Análisis macroeconómico; Modelo equilibrio general; Produccíon forestal; Producto de la selva; Análisis costo; Estudio mercado; Impacto económico; País productor; Zona temperada; Zona tropical; Bosque tropical; Industria madera; Globalización; Modelo macroeconométrico; Simulación; Industria forestal; Protección forestal; Monte de producción; Bosque templado LO : INIST-19864.354000132047150210 449/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0387362 INIST ET : Simulation-based estimation of peer effects AU : KRAUTH (Brian V.) AF : Simon Fraser University/Burnaby BC V5A 1S6/Canada (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2006; Vol. 133; No. 1; Pp. 243-271; Bibl. 1 p.3/4 LA : Anglais EA : The influence of peer behavior on an individual's choices has received renewed interest in recent years. However, accurate measures of this influence are difficult to obtain. Standard reduced-form methods lead to upwardly biased estimates due to simultaneity, common shocks, and nonrandom peer group selection. This paper describes a structural econometric model of peer effects in binary choice, as well as a simulated maximum likelihood estimator for its parameters. The model is nonparametrically identified under plausible restrictions, and can place informative bounds on parameter values under much weaker restrictions. Monte Carlo results indicate that this estimator performs better than a reduced form approach in a wide variety of settings. A brief application to youth smoking demonstrates the method and suggests that previous studies dramatically overstate peer influence. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02H02N3; 001D01A07; 001A02H02H FD : Interaction sociale; Estimation biaisée; Modèle structure; Modèle économétrique; Maximum vraisemblance; Méthode Monte Carlo; Méthode statistique; Estimation statistique; Analyse donnée; Donnée économique; Mesure influence; Jeu discret; Estimation basée simulation ED : Social interaction; Biased estimation; Structural model; Econometric model; Maximum likelihood; Monte Carlo method; Statistical method; Statistical estimation; Data analysis; Economic data; Influence measure; Discrete game; Simulation-based estimation SD : Interacción social; Estimación sesgada; Modelo estructura; Modelo econométrico; Maxima verosimilitud; Método Monte Carlo; Método estadístico; Estimación estadística; Análisis datos; Dato económico LO : INIST-16460.354000142332260100 450/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0383304 INIST ET : The cost-effectiveness of therapy with teriparatide and alendronate in women with severe osteoporosis AU : HAU LIU; MICHAUD (Kaleb); NAYAK (Smita); KARPF (David B.); OWENS (Douglas K.); GARBER (Alan M.) AF : Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Stanford University/Stanford, Calif/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 4 aut.); Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research, Stanford University/Stanford, Calif/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut.); Department of Medicine, VA Palo Alto Health Care System/Palo Alto, Calif/Etats-Unis (3 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Archives of internal medicine : (1960); ISSN 0003-9926; Coden AIMDAP; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; Vol. 166; No. 11; Pp. 1209-1217; Bibl. 81 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: Teriparatide is a promising new agent for the treatment of osteoporosis. Methods: The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of teriparatide-based strategies compared with alendronate sodium for the first-line treatment of high-risk osteoporotic women. We developed a microsimulation with a societal perspective. Key data sources include the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures, the Fracture Intervention Trial, and the Fracture Prevention Trial. We evaluated postmenopausal white women with low bone density and prevalent vertebral fracture. The interventions were usual care (UC) (calcium or vitamin D supplementation) compared with 3 strategies: 5 years of alendronate therapy, 2 years of teriparatide therapy, and 2 years of teriparatide therapy followed by 5 years of alendronate therapy (sequential teriparatide/ alendronate). The main outcome measure was cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Results: For the base-case analysis, the cost of alendronate treatment was $ 11 600 per QALY compared with UC. The cost of sequential teriparatide/alendronate therapy was $156 500 per QALY compared with alendronate. Teriparatide treatment alone was more expensive and produced a smaller increase in QALYs than alendronate. For sensitivity analysis, teriparatide alone was less cost-effective than alendronate even if its efficacy lasted 15 years after treatment cessation. Sequential teriparatide/ alendronate therapy was less cost-effective than alendronate even if fractures were eliminated during the alendronate phase, although its cost-effectiveness was less than $50 000 per QALY if the price of teriparatide decreased 60%, if used in elderly women with T scores of -4.0 or less, or if 6 months of teriparatide therapy had comparable efficacy to 2 years of treatment. Conclusions: Alendronate compares favorably to interventions accepted as cost-effective. Therapy with teriparatide alone is more expensive and produces a smaller increase in QALYs than therapy with alendronate. Sequential teriparatide/alendronate therapy appear expensive but could become more cost-effective with reductions in teriparatide price, with restriction to use in exceptionally high-risk women, or if short courses of treatment have comparable efficacy to that observed in clinical trials. CC : 002B01; 002B15A FD : Tériparatide; Analyse coût efficacité; Economie santé; Acide alendronique; Traitement; Femme; Ostéoporose; Femelle; Adulte; Grave; Médecine; Parathormone; Forme grave; Antiostéoclastique; Antiostéoporotique; Quality adjusted life years FG : Homme; Bisphosphonates; Diphosphonique acide dérivé; Système ostéoarticulaire pathologie; Hormone parathyroïdienne ED : Teriparatide; Cost efficiency analysis; Health economy; Alendronic acid; Treatment; Woman; Osteoporosis; Female; Adult; Severe; Medicine; Parathormone EG : Human; Bisphosphonates; Diphosphonic acid derivatives; Diseases of the osteoarticular system; Parathyroid hormone SD : Teriparatida; Análisis costo eficacia; Economía salud; Acido alendrónico; Tratamiento; Mujer; Osteoporosis; Hembra; Adulto; Grave; Medicina; Parathormona LO : INIST-2040.354000115611400080 451/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0372990 INIST ET : Estimating harvest schedules and profitability under the risk of fire disturbance AU : PETER (Brian); NELSON (John) AF : Industry, Trade, and Economics, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 506 West Burnside Road/Victoria, BC V8Z 1M5/Canada (1 aut.); Department of Forest Resources Management, Faculty of Forestry, The University of British Columbia, 2045-2424 Main Mall/Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4/Canada (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Canadian journal of forest research : (Print); ISSN 0045-5067; Coden CJFRAR; Canada; Da. 2005; Vol. 35; No. 6; Pp. 1378-1388; Abs. français; Bibl. 36 ref. LA : Anglais FA : II est nécessaire d'incorporer les perturbations causées par le feu dans les plans d'aménagement forestier durable pour obtenir des estimations de la variation dans les indicateurs de niveau de récolte, de volume sur pied, de rentabilité et de structure du paysage. Un modèle de perturbation due au feu relié à un simulateur de récolte a été utilisé pour estimer la probabilité de rupture de stock compte tenu d'une gamme de niveaux de récolte et de scénarios de suppression des feux. Les résultats ont ensuite été utilisés pour estimer les niveaux de récolte soutenue sur la base d'une tolérance aux risques de rupture de stock et aux effets de la suppression des feux. Le coût des perturbations passées dues au feu a été estimé à 4 $ millions par année en termes de profits qu'aurait pu rapporter la récolte dans une forêt de 288 000 ha située dans le nord-est de la Colombie-Britannique. La suppression de 98,3 % des perturbations dans le but d'en limiter les effets à 30 % de la superficie qu'elles ont réellement affectée a été évaluée à 1,8 $ millions par année. Les niveaux plus élevés de tolérance au risque étaient associés à des niveaux de récolte et des profits à court terme plus élevés, mais les profits moyens à long terme devenaient volatiles à mesure qu'on réduisait les volumes de bois sur pied. La structure du modèle développé dans cette étude pourrait aider à définir des stratégies d'aménagement forestier résilientes et à estimer l'évolution future et la variabilité des volumes de récolte, des profits et de l'état du paysage. CC : 002A33C01; 002A34C02 FD : Aménagement forestier; Gestion forestière; Exploitation forestière; Ordonnancement; Rentabilité; Risque; Perturbation; Incendie forêt; Estimation; Modélisation; Modèle économétrique; Modèle simulation; Approvisionnement; Gestion durable; Lutte incendie; Bois; Volume; Colombie britannique; Forêt de production; Récolte du bois FG : Canada; Amérique du Nord; Amérique; Foresterie; Economie forestière; Feu végétation; Produit forestier; Modèle mathématique; Economie mathématique; Mathématiques appliquées; Econométrie; Recherche opérationnelle ED : Forest planning; Forest management; Forest logging; Scheduling; Profitability; Risk; Perturbation; Forest fire; Estimation; Modeling; Econometric model; Simulation model; Supply; Sustainable management; Firefighting; Wood; Volume; British Columbia; Production forests; Wood harvesting EG : Canada; North America; America; Forestry; Forest economics; Vegetation fire; Forest product; Mathematical model; Mathematical economy; Applied mathematics; Econometrics; Operations research SD : Aprovechamiento forestal; Administración forestal; Explotación forestal; Reglamento; Rentabilidad; Riesgo; Perturbación; Incendio forestal; Estimación; Modelización; Modelo econométrico; Modelo simulación; Aprovisionamiento; Gestión sostenible; Lucha contra incendio; Madera; Volumen; Colombia Británica; Monte de producción; Aprovechamiento de la madera LO : INIST-19864.354000132109930120 452/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0371627 INIST ET : Florida activity mobility simulator : Overview and preliminary validation results AU : PENDYALA (Ram M.); KITAMURA (Ryuichi); KIKUCHI (Akira); YAMAMOTO (Toshiyuki); FUJII (Satoshi) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, ENB118, 4202 East Fowler Avenue/Tampa, FL 33620-5350/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Urban Management, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmachi/Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501/Japon (2 aut., 3 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, Nagoya University, Furo-cho/Chikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8603/Japon (4 aut.); Transportation Social Psychology Laboratory, Department of Civil Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 1-12-1 0-okayama/Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8552/Japon (5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; No. 1921; Pp. 123-130; Bibl. 28 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The development of modeling systems for activity-based travel demand ushers in a new era in transportation demand forecasting and planning. A comprehensive multimodal activity-based system for forecasting travel demand was developed for implementation in Florida and resulted in the Florida Activity Mobility Simulator (FAMOS). Two main modules compose the FAMOS microsimulation model system for modeling activity-travel patterns of individuals: the Household Attributes Generation System and the Prism-Constrained Activity-Travel Simulator. FAMOS was developed and estimated with household activity and travel data collected in southeast Florida in 2000. Results of the model development effort are promising and demonstrate the applicability of activity-based model systems in travel demand forecasting. An overview of the model system, a description of its features and capabilities, and preliminary validation results are provided. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Simulateur; Mobilité; Floride; Modélisation; Demande transport; Planification; Voyage; Prévision demande; Evaluation performance; Modèle simulation; Ménage FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Simulator; Mobility; Florida; Modeling; Transport demand; Planning; Travel; Demand forecasting; Performance evaluation; Simulation model; Household EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transportes; Simulador; Movilidad; Florida; Modelización; Demanda transporte; Planificación; Viaje; Previsión demanda; Evaluación prestación; Modelo simulación; Familia LO : INIST-10459B.354000132906720140 453/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0371623 INIST ET : Market-based framework for forecasting parking cost in traditional and microsimulation modeling applications AU : ERHARDT (Gregory D.); KURTH (David L.); SABINA (Erik E.); MYUNG (Smith) AF : Denver Regional Council of Governments, 4500 Cherry Creek Drive South, Suite 800/Denver, CO 80246/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 3 aut.); Parsons, 1700 Broadway, Suite 600/Denver, CO 80290/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Manuel Padron and Associates, 630 17th Street, Suite 630/Denver, CO 80202/Etats-Unis (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; No. 1921; Pp. 79-88; Bibl. 18 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Parking cost is an important variable in determining mode choice, yet it receives little attention in most travel forecasting models. This paper presents a framework for modeling parking supply and cost that has three advantages over most parking cost models: a market-based approach is used to equilibrate parking demand with parking supply; actual parking costs paid by groups of travelers rather than average parking costs are estimated for each transportation analysis zone; and estimates are made from longitudinal data. This framework has been applied successfully in a traditional four-step travel model and is being used in practice. It also provides additional opportunities for application in a segmented manner or in concert with a microsimulation modeling approach. Mode choice results based on aggregate and segmented applications of the framework are substantially different. Improved forecasting of parking costs should be an important consideration in any new model development. In recent years, substantial efforts have been focused on household interactions and activity modeling. Although the understanding of travel behavior has improved substantially, the improved techniques still depend on good input data for credible forecasts. CC : 001D15B; 001D15C FD : Transports; Analyse coût; Stationnement; Modèle simulation; Application; Choix modal; Modélisation; Marché ED : Transportation; Cost analysis; Parking; Simulation model; Application; Modal choice; Modeling; Markets SD : Transportes; Análisis costo; Estacionamiento; Modelo simulación; Aplicación; Elección modal; Modelización; Mercado LO : INIST-10459B.354000132906720100 454/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0371614 INIST ET : Urban commercial vehicle movement model for Calgary, Alberta, canada AU : STEFAN (K. J.); MCMILLAN (J. D. P.); HUNT (J. D.) AF : City of Calgary, P.O. Box 2100, Station M, #8124/Calgary, Alberta T2P 2M5/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.); University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive, NW/Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4/Canada (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; No. 1921; Pp. 1-10; Bibl. 11 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Commercial vehicle movements compose perhaps 15% of all urban vehicle trips and produce large impacts in key areas, such as congestion, emissions, road wear, and industrial area traffic. A system for modeling such movements was developed for Calgary, Alberta, Canada. It is a novel application of an agent-based microsimulation framework that uses a tour-based approach and emphasizes important elements of urban commercial movement, Including the role of service delivery, light commercial vehicles, and trip chaining. The microsimulation uses Monte Carlo techniques to assign tour purpose, vehicle type, next-stop purpose, next-stop location, and next-stop duration. Tours are &dquot;grown&dquot; with a return-to-establishment alternative within the next-stop purpose allocation, which is consistent with the nature of tour making in urban commercial movements. The Monte Carlo probabilities are established with the use of a series of logit models, with coefficients estimated on the basis of observed behavior of different commercial movement segments. The estimation results in themselves provide insights into the revealed behavior that have not been available previously. CC : 001D15B; 001D15C FD : Transport urbain; Transport routier; Véhicule utilitaire; Modélisation; Alberta; Modèle simulation; Mouvement; Méthode Monte Carlo; Affectation trafic; Tour itinéraire FG : Canada; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Urban transportation; Road transportation; Commercial vehicle; Modeling; Alberta; Simulation model; Motion; Monte Carlo method; Traffic assignment; Tour EG : Canada; North America; America SD : Transporte urbano; Transporte por carretera; Vehículo utilitario; Modelización; Alberta; Modelo simulación; Movimiento; Método Monte Carlo; Afectación tráfico; Vuelta LO : INIST-10459B.354000132906720010 455/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0342806 INIST ET : Fitting an error distribution in some heteroscedastic time series models AU : KOUL (Hira L.); SHIQING LING AF : Michigan State University/Etats-Unis; Hong Kong University of Science and Technology/Hong-Kong DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Annals of statistics; ISSN 0090-5364; Coden ASTSC7; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; Vol. 34; No. 2; Pp. 994-1012; Bibl. 30 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper addresses the problem of fitting a known distribution to the innovation distribution in a class of stationary and ergodic time series models. The asymptotic null distribution of the usual Kolmogornv-Smirnov test based on the residuals generally depends on the underlying model parameters and the error distribution. To overcome the dependence on the underlying model parameters, we propose that tests be based on a vector of certain weighted residual empirical processes. Under the null hypothesis and under minimal moment conditions, this vector of processes is shown to converge weakly to a vector of independent copies of a Gaussian process whose covariance function depends only on the fitted distribution and not on the model. Under certain local alternatives, the proposed test is shown to have nontrivial asymptotic power. The Monte Carlo critical values of this test are tabulated when fitting standard normal and double exponential distributions. The results obtained are shown to be applicable to GARCH and ARMA-GARCH models, the often used models in econometrics and finance. A simulation study shows that the test has satisfactory size and power for finite samples at these models. The paper also contains an asymptotic uniform expansion result for a general weighted residual empirical process useful in heteroscedastic models under minimal moment conditions, a result of independent interest. CC : 001A02H02G; 001A02H02M; 001A02H01H FD : Modèle non linéaire; Test ajustement; Hétéroscedasticité; Série temporelle; Série stationnaire; Test hypothèse; Processus empirique; Convergence faible; Processus Gauss; Méthode Monte Carlo; Valeur critique; Loi normale; Loi exponentielle; Modèle ARMA; Modèle économétrique; Econométrie; Finance; Simulation statistique; Puissance test; Modèle empirique; Méthode statistique; Processus pondéré; Loi asymptotique; Loi stationnaire; Fonction covariance; Modèle GARCH ED : Non linear model; Goodness of fit test; Heteroscedasticity; Time series; Stationary series; Hypothesis test; Empirical process; Weak convergence; Gaussian process; Monte Carlo method; Critical value; Gaussian distribution; Exponential distribution; ARMA model; Econometric model; Econometrics; Finance; Statistical simulation; Test power; Empirical model; Statistical method; Stationary distribution; Covariance function; GARCH model SD : Modelo no lineal; Prueba ajuste; Heteroscedasticidad; Serie temporal; Serie estacionaria; Test hipótesis; Proceso empírico; Convergencia débil; Proceso Gauss; Método Monte Carlo; Valor crítico; Curva Gauss; Ley exponencial; Modelo ARMA; Modelo econométrico; Econometría; Finanzas; Simulación estadística; Potencia test; Modelo empírico; Método estadístico LO : INIST-3079A1.354000115754960160 456/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0333386 BDSP FT : L'incidence du système de prélèvements et de transferts sociaux sur le niveau de vie des familles en 2004 : une approche par microsimulation AU : COURTIOUX (Pierre); LAIB (Nadine); LE MINEZ (Sylvie); MIROUSE (Benoît) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau monographique SO : ETUDES ET RESULTATS; France; Da. 2005-06; No. 408; ; Pp. 12 p. LA : Français FA : Le système socio-fiscal français comprend, au delà des prestations familiales, un ensemble de dispositifs qui tient compte de la composition de la famille, notamment l'impôt sur le revenu, les minima sociaux et les aides au logement. Ainsi, le montant global des prestations versées aux familles, constituant le coeur de la politique familiale, peut être estimé au travers des comptes de la protection sociale élaborés chaque année par la Direction de la Recherche, des Etudes de l'Evaluation et des Statistiques (DREES). Selon cette source, 38,2 milliards d'euros ont été versés aux ménages en 2003, au titre des prestations &dquot;famille&dquot; et 5,8 milliards d'euros au titre de la maternité, soit 2,8% du produit intérieur brut. De manière générale, les transferts et prélèvements contribuent significativement, surtout pour les plus modestes, à la prise en charge de la variation de niveau de vie liée à la présence d'enfants et réduisent sensiblement l'écart moyen de niveau de vie entre familles et ménages sans enfant CC : 002B30A11 FD : Milieu familial; Protection sociale; Politique sociale; Niveau vie; Revenu individuel; Politique fiscale; Donnée statistique ED : Family environment; Welfare aids; Social policy; Standard of living; Personal income; Fiscal policy; Statistical data SD : Medio familiar; Protección social; Política social; Renta personal; Política fiscal; Dato estadístico LO : BDSP/MIN-SANTE-BIB00001810 457/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0307121 INIST ET : Spatial econometric models for panel data : Incorporating spatial and temporal data AU : FRAZIER (Christopher); KOCKELMAN (Kara M.) AF : University of Texas at Austin, 6.9 East Cockrell Jr. Hall/Austin, TX 78712-1076/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; No. 1902; Pp. 80-90; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Cities are constantly evolving, complex systems, and modeling them, both theoretically and empirically, is a complicated task. However, understanding the manner in which developed regions change over time and space can be important for transportation researchers and planners. In this paper, methodologies for modeling developed areas are presented, and spatial and temporal effects of the data are incorporated into the methodologies. The work emphasizes spatial relationships between various geographic, land use, and demographic variables that characterize fine zones across regions. It derives and combines land cover data for the Austin, Texas, region from a panel of satellite images and U.S. Census of Population data. Models for population, vehicle ownership, and developed, residential, and agricultural land cover are estimated; the effects of space and time on the models are shown to be statistically significant. Simulations of population and land cover for the year 2020 help to illustrate the strengths and limitations of the models. CC : 001D14A06; 001D15A; 295 FD : Aménagement urbain; Occupation sol; Analyse spatiale; Modélisation; Modèle économétrique; Transports; Démographie; Problème recouvrement; Modèle régression; Régression linéaire; Régression logistique; Modèle prévision; Simulation ED : Urban planning; Land use; Spatial analysis; Modeling; Econometric model; Transportation; Demography; Covering problem; Regression model; Linear regression; Logistic regression; Forecast model; Simulation SD : Planeamiento urbano; Ocupación terreno; Análisis espacial; Modelización; Modelo econométrico; Transportes; Demografía; Problema recubrimiento; Modelo regresión; Regresión lineal; Regresión logística; Modelo previsión; Simulación LO : INIST-10459B.354000115150390100 458/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0307108 INIST ET : Estimating the safety and operational impact of raised medians and driveway density : Experiences from Texas and Oklahoma case studies AU : EISELE (William L.); FRAWLEY (William E.) AF : Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System, 3135 TAMU/College Station, TX 77843-3135/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System, 110 North Davis Drive, Suite 101/Arlington, TX 76013/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; No. 1931; Pp. 108-116; Bibl. 14 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper describes research sponsored by the Texas Department of Transportation to investigate the operational and safety impact of raised medians and driveway consolidation. Operational effects (travel time, speed, and delay) were investigated through microsimulation on three field test corridors and three theoretical corridors. Safety effects were investigated along 11 test corridors to estimate relationships between crash rates and access point densities as well as the presence of raised medians or two-way left-turn lanes (TWLTLs). The research demonstrates that access management effects are case specific and that microsimulation can assess these unique operational effects. For the case studies investigated, replacing a TWLTL with a raised median resulted in an increase in travel time on two test corridors and a decrease on one test corridor. Small increases in travel time were found with the theoretical corridors as well. The travel time differences are based on the traffic level and location and number of the raised median openings. When present, the relatively small increases in travel time, and subsequent speed and delay, appear to be outweighed by the reduction in the number of conflict points and increased safety. Detailed crash analysis on 11 test corridors indicated that as access point density increases, crash rates increase. This trend holds regardless of the median type. For test corridors in which crash data were investigated before and after the raised median installation, a reduction in the crash rate was always found. Finally, future research needs are identified, including the need to investigate operational and safety impact over a broader range of geometric conditions and longer corridors than investigated here. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Sécurité trafic; Etude cas; Expérience; Texas; Oklahoma; Modèle simulation; Corridor; Analyse qualitative; Analyse quantitative; Recommandation; Durée trajet; Vitesse déplacement; Accident circulation; Analyse fonctionnement FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Traffic safety; Case study; Experience; Texas; Oklahoma; Simulation model; Corridor; Qualitative analysis; Quantitative analysis; Recommendation; Travel time; Speed; Traffic accident; Operation study EG : United States; North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Seguridad tráfico; Estudio caso; Experiencia; Texas; Oklahoma; Modelo simulación; Corredor; Análisis cualitativo; Análisis cuantitativo; Recomendación; Duración trayecto; Velocidad desplazamiento; Accidente tráfico; Análisis funcionamiento LO : INIST-10459B.354000115147760140 459/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0307099 INIST ET : Making household microsimulation of travel and activities accessible to planners AU : WALKER (Joan L.) AF : Boston University and Caliper Corporation, Center for Transportation Studies, 675 Commonwealth Avenue/Boston, MA 02215/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; No. 1931; Pp. 38-48; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Anglais EA : There is a large gap between the aggregate, trip-based models used by transportation planning agencies and the activity-based, microsimulation methods espoused by those at the forefront of research. The modeling environment presented here is intended to bridge this gap by providing a palatable way for planning agencies to move toward advanced methods. Three components to bridging the gap are emphasized: an incremental approach, a demonstration of clear gains, and a provision of an environment that eases initial implementation and allows for expansion. The modeling environment (called STEP2) is a household microsimulator, developed in TransCAD, that can be used to implement a four-step model as well as models with longer-term behavior and trip chaining. An implementation for southern Nevada is described, and comparisons are made with the region's aggregate four-step model. The models perform similarly in numerous ways. A key advantage to the microsimulator is that it provides impacts by socioeconomic group (essential for equity analysis) and individual trip movements (for use in a vehicle microsimulator). A sensitivity analysis indicates that the microsimulation model has less inelastic cross elasticity of transit demand with respect to auto travel times than the aggregate model (aggregation error). The trade-off is that microsimulators have simulation error; results are presented regarding the severity of this error. This work shows that a shift to microsimulation does not necessarily require substantial investment to achieve many of the benefits. One of the greatest advantages is a flexible environment that can expand to include additional sensitivity to demographics and transportation policy variables. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Planification; Ménage; Voyage; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Analyse comportementale; Implémentation; Nevada; Modèle agrégé; Analyse sensibilité; Statistique FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Planning; Household; Travel; Modeling; Simulation model; Behavioral analysis; Implementation; Nevada; Aggregate model; Sensitivity analysis; Statistics EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transportes; Planificación; Familia; Viaje; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Análisis conductual; Implementación; Nevada; Modelo agregado; Análisis sensibilidad; Estadística LO : INIST-10459B.354000115147760050 460/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0307096 INIST ET : Accounting for the impact of heavy truck traffic in volume-delay functions in transportation planning models AU : YUN (Seongsoon); WHITE (Wade W.); LAMB (Daniel R.); YONGQIANG WU AF : University of Incheon, 177 Dowha-Dong/Nam-Gu, Incheon 402-749/Corée, République de (1 aut.); CITILABS, 222 Prince George Street, Suite 100/Annapolis, MD 21401/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Florida Department of Transportation, 11201 North McKinley Drive/Tampa, FL 33612/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Gannett Fleming, Inc., 9119 Corporate Lake Drive, Suite 150/Tampa, FL 33634/Etats-Unis (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; No. 1931; Pp. 8-17; Bibl. 7 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Truck traffic accounts for a substantial fraction of the traffic stream in many regions and is often the source of localized traffic congestion. This paper presents the analysis and findings that recommend updated volume-delay relationships for transportation planning models that account for total volume, roadway capacity, and the mix of heavy truck traffic. The traditional Bureau of Public Roads function representing the speed-flow relationships for roadway facilities is modified to include the impact of truck traffic specifically. Several new speed-flow functions based on microsimulation results for freeways and urban arterials have been developed. CC : 001D15B; 001D15C FD : Planification; Transport routier; Transport marchandise; Etude impact; Poids lourd; Ecoulement trafic; Modèle simulation; Comptabilité; Autoroute; Vitesse déplacement; Zone urbaine ED : Planning; Road transportation; Freight transportation; Impact study; Heavy truck; Traffic flow; Simulation model; Accounting; Freeway; Speed; Urban area SD : Planificación; Transporte por carretera; Transporte mercadería; Estudio impacto; Peso pesado; Flujo tráfico; Modelo simulación; Contabilidad; Autopista; Velocidad desplazamiento; Zona urbana LO : INIST-10459B.354000115147760020 461/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0305048 INIST ET : Calibration of microsimulation models using nonparametric statistical techniques AU : KIM (Seung-Jun); KIM (Wonho); RILETT (L. R.) AF : Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System, 3136 TAMU/College Station, TX 77B43-3136/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Mid- America Transportation Center, University of Nebraska, W348 Nebraska Hall/Lincoln, NE 68588-0531/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; No. 1935; Pp. 111-119; Bibl. 19 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The calibration of traffic microsimulation models has received widespread attention in transportation modeling. A recent concern is whether these models can simulate traffic conditions realistically. The recent widespread deployment of intelligent transportation systems in North America has provided an opportunity to obtain traffic-related data. In some cases the distribution of the traffic data rather than simple measures of central tendency such as the mean, Is available. This paper examines a method for calibrating traffic microsimulation models so that simulation results, such as travel time, represent observed distributions obtained from the Held. The approach is based on developing a statistically based objective function for use in an automated calibration procedure. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, the Moses test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test are used to test the hypothesis that the travel time distribution of the simulated and the observed travel times are statistically identical. The approach is tested on a signalized arterial roadway in Houston, Texas. It is shown that potentially many different parameter sets result in statistically valid simulation results. More important, it is shown that using simple metrics, such as the mean absolute error, may lead to erroneous calibration results. CC : 001D15B FD : Gestion trafic; Modèle simulation; Etalonnage; Modèle statistique; Modélisation; Implémentation; Durée trajet; Fonction objectif; Algorithme génétique; Résultat ED : Traffic management; Simulation model; Calibration; Statistical model; Modeling; Implementation; Travel time; Objective function; Genetic algorithm; Result SD : Gestión tráfico; Modelo simulación; Contraste; Modelo estadístico; Modelización; Implementación; Duración trayecto; Función objetivo; Algoritmo genético; Resultado LO : INIST-10459B.354000115191060130 462/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0303222 INIST ET : Advanced transit signal priority control with online microsimulation -based transit prediction model AU : LEE (Jinwoo); SHALABY (Amer); GREENOUGH (John); BOWIE (Mike); HUNG (Stanley) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street/Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.); Transportation Systems Division, LEA Consulting Ltd., 625 Cochrane Drive, Suite 900/Markham, Ontario L3R 9R9/Canada (3 aut., 5 aut.); Fortran Traffic Systems, 470 Midwest Road/Toronto, Ontario M1P 4Y5/Canada (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; No. 1925; Pp. 185-194; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Anglais EA : An advanced transit signal priority (TSP) control method is presented: it provides priority operation in response to real-time traffic and transit conditions. A high-performance online microscopic simulation model was developed for the purpose of predicting transit travel time along an intersection approach. The proposed method was evaluated through application to a hypothetical intersection with a nearside bus stop. The performance of the proposed method was compared with that of normal signal operation without TSP and a conventional signal priority method. The experimental results indicated that the developed method provided efficient and effective priority operation for both transit vehicles and automobiles. The proposed method significantly reduced transit vehicle delays as well as side-street traffic delay compared with conventional active priority control. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Gestion trafic; Modèle prévision; Priorité; Feu signalisation; Modèle simulation; Temps réel; Durée trajet; Intersection; Résultat expérimental; Scénario; Recommandation ED : Road traffic; Traffic management; Forecast model; Priority; Traffic lights; Simulation model; Real time; Travel time; Intersection; Experimental result; Script; Recommendation SD : Tráfico carretera; Gestión tráfico; Modelo previsión; Prioridad; Semáforo; Modelo simulación; Tiempo real; Duración trayecto; Intersección; Resultado experimental; Argumento; Recomendación LO : INIST-10459B.354000115190560190 463/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0303213 INIST ET : Methodology for performance optimization of ramp control strategies through microsimulation AU : BEEGALA (Adinarayana); HOURDAKIS (John); MICHALOPOULOS (Panos G.) AF : Parsons Brinkerhoff Quade & Douglas, Inc., 999 3rd Avenue, Suite 2200/Seattle, WA 98104/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, 500 Pillsbury Drive SE/Minneapolis, MN 55455/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; No. 1925; Pp. 87-98; Bibl. 32 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Freeway ramp control has been successfully implemented since the mid-1960s as an efficient and viable freeway management strategy. However, the effectiveness of any ramp control strategy is largely dependent on site-specific customization and calibration, preferably before its deployment. A general methodology for such performance optimization of ramp control strategies is proposed in a microscopic simulation environment as an alternative to trial-and-error field experimentation. The applicability of the methodology is demonstrated by implementation on Minnesota's new stratified zone metering (SZM). Further, the effect of external factors, such as traffic demand variation and incidents, on SZM control and optimization results was also studied. Results show that the optimization methodology is highly effective depending on the optimization objective, test site characteristics, and demand levels. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Autoroute; Stratégie; Régulation trafic; Gestion trafic; Optimisation; Evaluation performance; Efficacité; Modèle simulation; Impact environnement; Essai en place; Minnesota; Implémentation; Résultat; Scénario FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Freeway; Strategy; Traffic control; Traffic management; Optimization; Performance evaluation; Efficiency; Simulation model; Environment impact; In situ test; Minnesota; Implementation; Result; Script EG : United States; North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Autopista; Estrategia; Regulación tráfico; Gestión tráfico; Optimización; Evaluación prestación; Eficacia; Modelo simulación; Impacto medio ambiente; Ensayo en sitio; Minesota; Implementación; Resultado; Argumento LO : INIST-10459B.354000115190560100 464/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0193332 INIST ET : Microsimulation models incorporating both demand and supply dynamics AU : RONGHUI LIU; VAN VLIET (Dirck); WATLING (David) AF : Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds/Leeds LS2 9JT/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice; ISSN 0965-8564; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2006; Vol. 40; No. 2; Pp. 125-150; Bibl. 2 p.1/2 LA : Anglais EA : There has been rapid growth in interest in real-time transport strategies over the last decade, ranging from automated highway systems and responsive traffic signal control to incident management and driver information systems. The complexity of these strategies, in terms of the spatial and temporal interactions within the transport system, has led to a parallel growth in the application of traffic microsimulation models for the evaluation and design of such measures, as a remedy to the limitations faced by conventional static, macroscopic approaches. However, while this naturally addresses the immediate impacts of the measure, a difficulty that remains is the question of how the secondary impacts, specifically the effect on route and departure time choice of subsequent trips, may be handled in a consistent manner within a microsimulation framework. The paper describes a modelling approach to road network traffic, in which the emphasis is on the integrated microsimulation of individual trip-makers' decisions and individual vehicle movements across the network. To achieve this it represents directly individual drivers' choices and experiences as they evolve from day-to-day, combined with a detailed within-day traffic simulation model of the space-time trajectories of individual vehicles according to car-following and lane-changing rules and intersection regulations. It therefore models both day-to-day and within-day variability in both demand and supply conditions, and so, we believe, is particularly suited for the realistic modelling of real-time strategies such as those listed above. The full model specification is given, along with details of its algorithmic implementation. A number of representative numerical applications are presented, including: sensitivity studies of the impact of day-to-day variability; an application to the evaluation of alternative signal control policies; and the evaluation of the introduction of bus-only lanes in a sub-network of Leeds. Our experience demonstrates that this modelling framework is computationally feasible as a method for providing a fully internally consistent, microscopic, dynamic assignment, incorporating both within- and between-day demand and supply dynamics. CC : 001D15B; 001D15C FD : Gestion trafic; Modèle simulation; Trafic routier; Régulation trafic; Feu signalisation; Dynamique; Approvisionnement; Réseau routier; Choix; Itinéraire; Stratégie; Temps réel; Demande transport; Variabilité; Application ED : Traffic management; Simulation model; Road traffic; Traffic control; Traffic lights; Dynamics; Supply; Road network; Choice; Route; Strategy; Real time; Transport demand; Variability; Application SD : Gestión tráfico; Modelo simulación; Tráfico carretera; Regulación tráfico; Semáforo; Dinámica; Aprovisionamiento; Red carretera; Elección; Itinerario; Estrategia; Tiempo real; Demanda transporte; Variabilidad; Aplicación LO : INIST-12377A.354000135257960030 465/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0161328 INIST ET : Comparison of Carpentier-Edwards pericardial and supraannular bioprostheses in aortic valve replacement AU : PUVIMANASINGHE (John P. A.); TAKKENBERG (Johanna J. M.); EIJKEMANS (Marinus J. C.); VAN HERWERDEN (Lex A.); JAMIESON (W. R. Eric); GRUNKEMEIER (Gary L.); HABBEMA (J. Dik F.); BOGERS (Ad J. J. C.) AF : Department of Cardio-thoracic Surgery, Erasmus University Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 4 aut., 8 aut.); Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (3 aut., 7 aut.); University of British Columbia/Vancouver/Canada (5 aut.); Providence Health System/Portland, OR/Etats-Unis (6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : European journal of cardio-thoracic surgery; ISSN 1010-7940; Coden EJCSE7; Pays-Bas; Da. 2006; Vol. 29; No. 3; Pp. 374-379; Bibl. 25 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Objective: This study aimed at calculating and comparing the long-term outcomes of patients after aortic valve replacement with the Carpentier-Edwards bovine pericardial and porcine supraannular bioprostheses using microsimulation. Methods: We conducted a meta-analysis of eight studies on the Carpentier-Edwards pericardial valves (2685 patients, 12,250 patient-years) and five studies on the supraannular valves (3796 patients, 20,127 patient-years) to estimate the occurrence rates of valve-related events. Eighteen-year follow-up data sets were used to construct age-dependent Weibull curves that described their structural valvular deterioration. The estimates were entered into a microsimulation model, which was used to calculate the outcomes of patients after aortic valve replacement. Results: The annual hazard rates for thromboembolism after aortic valve replacement were 1.35% and 1.76% for the pericardial and supraannular valves, respectively. For a 65-year-old male, median time to structural valvular deterioration was 20.1 and 22.2 years while the lifetime risk of reoperation due to structural valvular deterioration was 18.3% and 14.0%, respectively. The life expectancy of the patient was 10.8 and 10.9 years and event-free life expectancy 9.0 and 8.8 years, respectively. Conclusions: The microsimulation methodology provides insight into the prognosis of a patient after aortic valve replacement with any given valve type. Both the Carpentier-Edwards pericardial and supraannular valve types perform satisfactorily, especially in elderly patients, and show no appreciable difference in long-term outcomes when implanted in the aortic position. CC : 002B25E; 002B11; 002B12 FD : Etude comparative; Péricarde; Valvule aortique; Remplacement; Pronostic; Modélisation; Appareil circulatoire; Cardiologie; Phlébologie ED : Comparative study; Pericardium; Aortic valve; Replacement; Prognosis; Modeling; Circulatory system; Cardiology; Phlebology SD : Estudio comparativo; Pericardio; Válvula aórtica; Reemplazo; Pronóstico; Modelización; Aparato circulatorio; Cardiología; Flebología LO : INIST-21307.354000132840970170 466/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0126391 INIST ET : An improved historical simulation approach for estimating 'value at risk' of crude oil price AU : YING FAN; JIAO (Jian-Ling) AF : Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences/100080 Beijing/Chine (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : International journal of global energy issues; ISSN 0954-7118; Suisse; Da. 2006; Vol. 25; No. 1-2; Pp. 83-93; Bibl. 15 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Value at risk, an effective measurement of financial risk, can be used to forecast the risk associated with oil price movements. In this paper, we propose an improved Historical Simulation Approach, EDFAAF, which is based on a former approach, HSAF. By comparing it with the HSAF approach, we give evidence to show that EDFAAF has a more effective forecasting power in the field of oil risk management. CC : 001D06A01C2B; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Economie pétrolière; Pétrole; Echange commercial; Analyse risque; Gestion risque; Prévision; Simulation; Modèle économétrique; Vérification; Série temporelle; Valeur exposée ED : Oil economy; Petroleum; Trade; Risk analysis; Risk management; Forecasting; Simulation; Econometric model; Verification; Time series; Value at risk SD : Economía petrolera; Petróleo; Intercambio comercial; Análisis riesgo; Gestión riesgo; Previsión; Simulación; Modelo econométrico; Verificación; Serie temporal LO : INIST-27524.354000134775500050 467/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0126390 INIST ET : Planning the future of Botswana's coal AU : FICHANI (Khaulani); LABYS (Walter C.) AF : Natural Resource Economics Program, West Virginia University, P.O. Box 6108/Morgantown, WV 26506-6108/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : International journal of global energy issues; ISSN 0954-7118; Suisse; Da. 2006; Vol. 25; No. 1-2; Pp. 60-82; Bibl. 2 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : Botswana has vast proven deposits of steam coal, which, for a long time, the government has wanted to develop but without much success. The main objectives of this study are • to forecast possible coal exports from Botswana and the land routes for these exports • to determine the competitiveness of Botswana's coal in world steam coal trade • to make recommendations on the appropriate policy for the exploitation of this coal. To accomplish these objectives, we construct a model of the global steam coal trade and apply this model to forecast the likely optimal size of mine, timing of capacity, and choice of export port for the years 2005 and 2010 from a 2000 base forecast year. The results of our regional analysis suggest that Botswana's coal exports are competitive in Asia and Western Europe. These results are shown to be least sensitive to changes in rail transportation costs and marginal supply costs but more sensitive to changes in capital costs for mine development. CC : 001D06A01C2A; 230 FD : Economie charbonnière; Botswana; Charbon vapeur; Etude marché; Commerce international; Exportation; Compétitivité; Production; Optimisation économique; Stratégie optimale; Modèle économétrique; Demande; Prévision; Court terme; Long terme; Simulation FG : Afrique ED : Coal economy; Botswana; Steam coal; Market survey; International trade; Export; Competitiveness; Production; Economic optimization; Optimal strategy; Econometric model; Demand; Forecasting; Short term; Long term; Simulation EG : Africa SD : Economía carbonera; Botswana; Carbón vapor; Estudio mercado; Comercio internacional; Exportación; Competitividad; Producción; Optimización económica; Estrategia optima; Modelo econométrico; Petición; Previsión; Corto plazo; Largo plazo; Simulación LO : INIST-27524.354000134775500040 468/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0093128 INIST ET : Russian exports of emission permits under the Kyoto Protocol : The interplay with non-competitive fuel markets AU : HAGEM (Cathrine); MAESTAD (Ottar) AF : Department of Economics, University of Oslo/Norvège (1 aut.); Chr. Michelsen Institute, P.O. Box 6033 Postterminalen/5892 Bergen/Norvège (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Resource and energy economics; ISSN 0928-7655; Pays-Bas; Da. 2006; Vol. 28; No. 1; Pp. 54-73; Bibl. 26 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The paper analyses optimal strategies for a country that has market power in an international market for emission permits at the same time as a domestic fuel producer participates in a non-competitive fuel export market. In particular, the effects of coordinating fuel and permit exports are explored. We show that such coordination may either increase or reduce the optimal mark-up on permits, depending on the degree of substitution between alternative fuels. When the fuel market is oligopolistic, coordination of permit and fuel exports may lead to a strategic disadvantage in the fuel market, which makes such coordination unprofitable. However, illustrative numerical simulations suggest that Russia will benefit from coordinating its permit exports with its oil and gas exports during the Kyoto commitment period. CC : 001D06A01C1; 001D06A01C2C; 230 FD : Economie énergie; Exportation; Gaz naturel; Permis émission; Structure marché; Modèle économétrique; Coordination; Etude marché; Faisabilité; Analyse économique; Stratégie optimale; Simulation numérique; Fédération de Russie FG : Eurasie ED : Energy economy; Export; Natural gas; Emission permit; Market structure; Econometric model; Coordination; Market survey; Feasibility; Economic analysis; Optimal strategy; Numerical simulation; Russian Federation EG : Eurasia SD : Economía energía; Exportación; Gas natural; Permiso de emisión; Estructura mercado; Modelo econométrico; Coordinación; Estudio mercado; Practicabilidad; Análisis económico; Estrategia optima; Simulación numérica; Federación de Rusia LO : INIST-17835.354000134808280040 469/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0075722 INIST ET : Improved modeling of park-and-ride transfer time : Capturing the within-day dynamics AU : TSANG (Flavia W. K.); SHALABY (Amer S.); MILLER (Eric J.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto/Toronto, Ontario/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, Joint Program in Transportation, University of Toronto/Toronto, Ontario/Canada (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of advanced transportation; ISSN 0197-6729; Coden JATRDC; Canada; Da. 2005; Vol. 39; No. 2; Pp. 117-137; Bibl. 12 ref. LA : Anglais EA : An important factor that affects park-and-ride demand is transfer time. However, conventional park-and-ride demand models treat transfer time as a single value, without considering the time-of-day effect. Since early comers usually occupy spots closer to the entrance, their transfer times are shorter. Hence, there is a relationship between arrival time and transfer time. To analyze this relationship, a microsimulation model is developed. The model simulates the queuing system at the entrance and the pattern that parking spots are occupied in the parking lot over time. As expected, the model output illustrates an increasing relationship between arrival time and transfer time. This relationship has significant implication in mode choice models because it means that the attractiveness of park-and-ride depends on the time of arrival at the park-and-ride lot. This model of park-and-ride transfer time can potentially improve travel demand forecasting, as well as facilitate the operation and design of park-and-ride facilities. CC : 001D15B; 001D15C FD : Politique transport; Park and ride; Modélisation; Méthode analyse; Temps; Transfert; Modèle simulation; Modèle prévision; Système attente; Stationnement; Prévision demande; Choix modal; Enquête sur terrain; Durée trajet ED : Transportation policy; Park and ride; Modeling; Analysis method; Time; Transfer; Simulation model; Forecast model; Queueing system; Parking; Demand forecasting; Modal choice; Field inquiry; Travel time SD : Política transporte; Park and ride; Modelización; Método análisis; Tiempo; Transferencia; Modelo simulación; Modelo previsión; Sistema fila espera; Estacionamiento; Previsión demanda; Elección modal; Encuesta sobre terreno; Duración trayecto LO : INIST-15009.354000138424070010 470/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0073266 BDSP FT : L'impact des réformes des retraites de 1993 et de 2003 : une analyse à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation ARTEMIS AU : DEBRAND (T.); PRIVAT (A.G.); JOEL (M.E.); WITTWER (J.) AF : DT : Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : 25e journées de l'Association d'économie sociale/2005/FRA; France; L'Harmattan; Da. 2005; Pp. 75-89; ISBN 2-747-59161-1 LA : Français FA : Cette communication a été présentée lors des 25e journées d'Economie sociale organisées par l'Association d'économie sociale, en septembre 2005, sur le thème de l'économie du vieillissement. Cette contribution présente les résultats des évaluations, à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation ARTEMIS, de l'impact des réformes pour maintenir l'équilibre du régime de retraite par répartition, sur les différentes générations des retraités du secteur privé. Les effets des réformes de 1993 et de 2003 sont comparés en étudiant les différences inter et intra-générationnelles CC : 002B30A11 FD : Sénescence; Personne âgée; Retraite; Secteur privé; Age; Sexe; Théorie; Analyse économique; Etude impact; Projection perspective; France FG : Homme; Europe ED : Senescence; Elderly; Retirement; Private sector; Age; Sex; Theory; Economic analysis; Impact study; Perspective projection; France EG : Human; Europe SD : Senescencia; Anciano; Jubilación; Sector privado; Edad; Sexo; Teoría; Análisis económico; Estudio impacto; Proyección perspectiva; Francia LO : BDSP/IRDES-R1605, A3323/2, CODBAR 0047025 471/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0018023 INIST ET : Modeling and forecasting cointegrated relationships among heavy oil and product prices AU : LANZA (Alessandro); MANERA (Matteo); GIOVANNINI (Massimo) AF : Eni S.p.A/Rome/Italie (1 aut.); Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei/Milan/Italie (1 aut.); CRENoS/Cagliari/Italie (1 aut.); Department of Statistics, University of Milan-Bicocca/Italie (2 aut.); Fondazione Eni Enrico Afattei/Milan/Italie (2 aut.); Department of Economics, Boston College/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy economics; ISSN 0140-9883; Coden EECODR; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2005; Vol. 27; No. 6; Pp. 831-848; Bibl. 17 ref. LA : Anglais EA : In this paper we investigate heavy crude oil and product price dynamics. We present a comparison among ten prices series of heavy crude oils and fourteen price series of petroleum products in two distinct areas (Europe and Americas) over the period 1994-2002. We provide a complete analysis of crude oil and product price dynamics using cointegration and error correction models (ECM). Subsequently we use the ECM specification to predict crude oil prices over the horizon January 2002-June 2002. Finally we compare the forecasting performance of ECM with a naïve model in first differences which does not exploit any cointegrating relation. CC : 001D06A01C2B; 230 FD : Economie pétrolière; Pétrole brut; Pétrole lourd; Prix; Produit pétrolier; Modèle économétrique; Cointégration; Essence; Gas oil; Fuel oil; Europe; Amérique; Prévision; Simulation; Méthode statique; Méthode dynamique ED : Oil economy; Crude oil; Heavy oil; Price; Petroleum product; Econometric model; Cointegration; Gasoline; Gas oil; Fuel oil; Europe; America; Forecasting; Simulation; Static method; Dynamic method SD : Economía petrolera; Petróleo bruto; Petróleo pesado; Precio; Producto petrolero; Modelo econométrico; Cointegración; Gasolina; Gasóleo; Fuel oil; Europa; America; Previsión; Simulación; Método estático; Método dinámico LO : INIST-18231.354000135107980020 472/793 NO : PASCAL 06-0013806 INIST ET : Including ITS in Microsimulation models AU : SYKES (Pete); BENNETT (Dave) AF : SIAS Ltd/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : International IEEE conference on intelligent transportation systems/7/2004/Washington DC USA; Etats-Unis; Piscataway NJ: IEEE; Da. 2004; Pp. 1018-1022; ISBN 0-7803-8500-4 LA : Anglais EA : Paramics, a transport planning microsimulation package has been extended to include an Advanced Control Interface based on SNMP - Simple Network Management Protocol. The interface enables the inclusion of external ITS control devices within a traffic simulation. This paper describes the interface and the test scenarios to which it has been applied. CC : 001D15B; 001D15C FD : Transports; Planification; Régulation trafic; Système intelligent; Modèle simulation; Interface; Trafic routier; Système informatique; Organe commande; Exemple; Congrès international ED : Transportation; Planning; Traffic control; Intelligent system; Simulation model; Interface; Road traffic; Computer system; Control device; Example; International conference SD : Transportes; Planificación; Regulación tráfico; Sistema inteligente; Modelo simulación; Interfase; Tráfico carretera; Sistema informático; Órgano mando; Ejemplo; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-Y 38567.354000138664481840 473/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-06-15481 INIST FT : Les effets des réformes des retraites sur les inégalités de genre en France ET : (Effects of pension reforms on gender inequality in France) AU : BONNET (Carole); BUFFETEAU (Sophie); GODEFROY (Pascal) AF : Institut national d'études démographiques/France (1 aut.); Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques/Paris/France (2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Population; ISSN 0032-4663; France; Da. 2006; Vol. 61; No. 1-2; Pp. 45-75; Abs. anglais/espagnol; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Français FA : Les fortes différences dans les montants des pensions que perçoivent les hommes et les femmes à leur départ en retraite traduisent de façon synthétique les inégalités de déroulement des carrières professionnelles en fonction du sexe. Les études prévoient cependant une tendance au resserrement des écarts dans les décennies à venir. S'appuyant sur une microsimulation dynamique effectuée sur les pensions du secteur privé, Carole BONNET, Sophie BUFFETEAU et Pascal GODEFROY étudient les effets des réformes des retraites de 1993 et 2003 sur l'évolution des inégalités entre hommes et femmes en France. Ils montrent que ces réformes tendent à freiner la réduction des écarts des pensions en fonction du sexe. Les effets plus négatifs des réformes pour les femmes sont liés à l'allongement de 10 à 25 ans du nombre d'années prises en compte pour le calcul du salaire de référence, qui pénalise celles qui ont des carrières discontinues, et au fait qu'un certain nombre de femmes avanceraient leur âge de départ à la retraite, en raison de la réduction des pénalités financières qu'elles subissent. Alors que la problématique des écarts entre les retraites des hommes et celles des femmes et de leurs évolutions est relativement peu abordée en France, les quelques études existantes concluent cependant à une réduction des écarts entre hommes et femmes à l'horizon 2040. Cet article s'inscrit dans la lignée de ces travaux en s'interrogeant sur un éventuel impact différencié selon le sexe des réformes des retraites adoptées en France en 1993 et en 2003. Pour cela, on projette les droits à la retraite des générations 1965-1974 à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation dynamique Destinie dans trois scénarios : avant la réforme de 1993; après la réforme de 1993 et avant celle de 2003 ; après la réforme de 2003. On montre que, malgré l'absence de dispositions spécifiques selon le sexe, ces réformes semblent avoir un impact plus CC : 52150; 521 FD : Réforme; Retraite; Genre; Inégalité sociale ED : Reform; Retirement; Gender; Social Inequality LO : INIST-24366.354000138891680020 474/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-06-15254 INIST FT : Prisme1, le modèle de la Cnav ET : (Prisme1, model of Cnav) AU : POUBELLE (Vincent); ALBERT (Christophe); BEURNIER (Paul); COUHIN (Julie); GRAVE (Nathanaël) AF : Cnav/France (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Retraite et société : (Paris); ISSN 1167-4687; France; Da. 2006; No. 48; Pp. 202-215; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Français FA : Dans le cadre du développement de son pôle d'expertise, la Caisse nationale d'assurance vieillesse (Cnav) s'est dotée d'un nouveau modèle de projection des retraites, Prisme, conçu et développé au sein de la direction de la prospective et de la coordination des études (DPCE). Ce modèle en microsimulation s'appuie sur la richesse et la finesse des informations de gestion de la Cnav et sur les nombreuses expertises extérieures, notamment celles de l'Ined et del'Insee. Dans un contexte de réformes, Prisme a pour objectif d'estimer à court, moyen et long termes l'équilibre financier de la branche vieillesse mais aussi d'évaluer, à un niveau individuel, les répercussions des évolutions démographiques, économiques et réglementaires sur les futursretraités du régime général. Cet article se propose de faire une synthèse des travaux entrepris pour la réalisation de Prisme, et qui ont conduit à l'écriture de 6000 lignes de programme dans le logiciel SAS CC : 52164; 521 FD : Assurance vieillesse; Statistiques; Evaluation; Prospective; Retraite ED : Retirement benefit; Statistics; Evaluation; Outlook; Retirement LO : INIST-27412.354000153109400080 475/793 NO : FRANCIS 531-06-12663 PRODIG-INTERGEO FT : Les effets des réformes des retraites sur les inégalités de genre en France AU : BONNET (C.); BUFFETEAU (S.); GODEFROY (P.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Population (Paris); ISSN 0032-4663; France; Da. 2006; Vol. 61; No. 1-2; Pp. 45-76; Abs. français/anglais/espagnol; Bibl. 40 ref.; 7 fig., 10 tabl. LA : Français FA : S'appuyant sur une microsimulation dynamique effectuée sur les pensions du secteur privé, les AA. étudient les effets des réformes des retraites sur les inégalités de genre en France. Ces réformes tendent à freiner la réduction des écarts des pensions en fonction du sexe. Les effets les plus négatifs pour les femmes sont liés à l'allongement de 10 à 25 ans du nombre d'années prises en compte pour le calcul du salaire de référence, qui pénalise celles qui ont des carrières discontinues, et au fait qu'un certain nombre de femmes avanceraient leur âge au départ à la retraite, en raison de la réduction des pénalités financières qu'elles subissent CC : 531163; 531 FD : Réforme des retraites; Inégalité sociale; Effet induit; Différence entre sexes; Niveau de vie; Retraité; Travail féminin; Système de retraite; France ED : Social inequality; Induced effect; Gender difference; Living standard; Retired people; Female work; France LO : INIST-24366 476/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0478483 BDSP FT : La microsimulation des politiques de transferts sociaux et fiscaux à la DREES : objectifs, outils et principales études et évaluations AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau monographique SO : DOSSIERS SOLIDARITE ET SANTE; France; Da. 2003-07/2003-09; No. 3; ; Pp. 92 p. LA : Français FA : Les articles de ce dossier solidarité et santé sont consacrés aux travaux d'évaluation des politiques sociales menées au sein de la Direction de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiques (Drees), mettant en oeuvre des techniques de microsimulation. Trois mots clés : évaluation, politiques sociales et microsimulation sont donc à la base de ce dossier CC : 002B30A11 FD : Politique sociale; Evaluation; Budget; Ménage; Politique fiscale; Prospective; Modèle économique ED : Social policy; Evaluation; Budget; Household; Fiscal policy; Prospective; Economic model SD : Política social; Evaluación; Presupuesto; Familia; Política fiscal; Prospectiva; Modelo económico LO : BDSP/MIN-SANTE-193350 477/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0472264 INIST ET : Some guidelines for selecting microsimulation models for interchange traffic operational analysis AU : FANG CLARA FANG; ELEFTERIADOU (Lily) AF : Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Univ. of Hartford, 200 Bloomfield Ave/West Hartford, CT 06117/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Transportation Research Center, Dept. of Civil and Coastal Engineering, Univ. of Florida, 365 Weil Hall, Box 116580/Gainesville, FL 32611-6580/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; Vol. 131; No. 7; Pp. 535-543; Bibl. 11 ref. LA : Anglais EA : There are several commercially available traffic simulation packages that are able to model the full range of interchange ramp terminals. Each of these packages has pros and cons for simulating various types of interchanges and traffic control plans. Previous research has studied specific simulators in terms of their capabilities for simulating single urban point interchanges (SPUIs) and diamond interchanges. There is no guidance provided however on how to generally select appropriate simulators based on their capabilities and internal algorithms for analyzing specific interchange design and control scenarios. This paper focuses on identifying the elements that should be available in a simulator in order to evaluate a specific interchange scenario (including type, geometry, and traffic control characteristics). The paper does not identify all the specific packages that are appropriate for a specific scenario because these evolve constantly; even though the current version of a package may not support a particular function, future versions of that package may incorporate it. Thus, identifying the most appropriate package would very quickly become obsolete. It is up to the analyst to examine whether a particular characteristic or algorithm is present in a specific package. To accomplish this, three simulators were selected and studied: AIMSUN, CORSIM, and VISSIM. Data from two interchanges (one SPUI and one diamond interchange) at Arizona were obtained and used in the assessment of these packages. The model parameters and assumptions are examined for each model. Simulation is conducted first by using default parameter values followed by a calibration process to adjust parameters related to driver behavior, vehicle performance, and others. In conclusion, several elements are identified as critical in simulating interchanges, which fall in the following categories: (1) the capability of representation of specific geometric characteristics; (2) the capability of simulating specific signal control plans; (3) calibration needs and accuracy in comparison to field conditions; (4) the extraction of specific performance measures from the simulator; and (5) other observations from the research. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Ecoulement trafic; Echangeur routier; Modèle simulation; Méthode analyse; Recommandation; Performance; Choix site; Etalonnage; Simulateur; Arizona FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Traffic flow; Interchange; Simulation model; Analysis method; Recommendation; Performance; Site selection; Calibration; Simulator; Arizona EG : United States; North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Flujo tráfico; Cruce a diferentes niveles; Modelo simulación; Método análisis; Recomendación; Rendimiento; Elección sitio; Contraste; Simulador; Arizona LO : INIST-572E.354000138183320060 478/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0464388 INIST ET : Prognosis after aortic valve replacement with the carpentier-edwards pericardial valve : Use of microsimulation AU : PUVIMANASINGHE (John P. A.); TAKKENBERG (Johanna J. M.); EIJKEMANS (Marinus J. C.); STEYERBERG (Ewout W.); VAN HERWERDEN (Lex A.); GRUNKEMEIER (Gary L.); HABBEMA (J. Dik F.); BOGERS (Ad J. J. C.) AF : Departments of Cardiothoracic Surgery and Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas; Providence Health System/Portland, Oregon/Etats-Unis DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : The Annals of thoracic surgery; ISSN 0003-4975; Coden ATHSAK; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; Vol. 80; No. 3; Pp. 825-831; Bibl. 40 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background. The second-generation Carpentier-Edwards pericardial valve (Edwards Lifesciences LLC, Irvine, CA) is widely used for aortic valve replacement. However, knowledge on the long-term outcomes of patients after valve implantation is incomplete. We used microsimulation to calculate the long-term outcome of any given patient after aortic valve replacement with the Carpentier-Edwards pericardial valve. Methods. A meta-analysis of 8 reports on aortic valve replacement with the Carpentier-Edwards pericardial valve (2,685 patients; 12,250 patient years) was used to estimate the hazards of valve-related events other than structural valvular deterioration. Structural valvular deterioration was described by age-dependent Weibull curves calculated from 18-year follow-up, premarket approval, Carpentier-Edwards pericardial primary data. These estimates provided the input data for the parameters of the microsimulation model, which was then used to calculate the outcomes of patients of different ages after valve implantation. The model estimates of survival were validated using two external data sets. Results. The Weibull analysis estimated a median time to reoperation for structural valvular deterioration ranging from 18.1 years for a 55-year-old male to 23.2 years for a 75-year-old male. For a 65-year-old male, microsimulation calculated a life expectancy and event-free life expectancy of 10.8 and 9.1 years, respectively. The lifetime risk of at least one valve-related event was 38% and that of reoperation due to structural valvular deterioration 17%, respectively, for this patient. The model estimates of survival showed good agreement with external data. Conclusions. Microsimulation provides detailed insight into the long-term prognosis of patients after aortic valve replacement. The Carpentier-Edwards pericardial valve performs satisfactorily and offers a low lifetime risk of reoperation due to structural valvular deterioration, especially for elderly patients requiring aortic valve replacement. CC : 002B25D FD : Appareil respiratoire pathologie; Chirurgie; Pronostic; Valvule aortique; Remplacement; Péricarde; Soupape; Utilisation; Thorax; Traitement ED : Respiratory disease; Surgery; Prognosis; Aortic valve; Replacement; Pericardium; Valve; Use; Thorax; Treatment SD : Aparato respiratorio patología; Cirugía; Pronóstico; Válvula aórtica; Reemplazo; Pericardio; Válvula; Uso; Tórax; Tratamiento LO : INIST-13779.354000131998990060 479/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0434971 INIST ET : A tour-based model of travel mode choice AU : MILLER (Eric J.); ROORDA (Matthew J.); CARRASCO (Juan Antonio); MILLER (Eric J.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto/Toronto, M5S 1A4/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. Georges Street/Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4/Canada (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation; ISSN 0049-4488; Coden TNPRDN; Pays-Bas; Da. 2005; Vol. 32; No. 4; Pp. 399-422; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : This paper presents a new tour-based mode choice model. The model is agent-based: both households and individuals are modelled within an object-oriented, microsimulation framework. The model is household-based in that inter-personal household constraints on vehicle usage are modelled, and the auto passenger mode is modelled as a joint decision between the driver and the passenger(s) to ride-share. Decisions are modelled using a random utility framework. Utility signals are used to communicate preferences among the agents and to make trade-offs among competing demands. Each person is assumed to choose the &dquot;best&dquot; combination of modes available to execute each tour, subject to auto availability constraints that are determined at the household level. The household's allocations of resources (i.e., cars to drivers and drivers to ride-sharing passengers) are based on maximizing overall household utility, subject to current household resource levels. The model is activity-based: it is designed for integration within a household-based activity scheduling microsimulator. The model is both chain-based and trip-based. It is trip-based in that the ultimate output of the model is a chosen, feasible travel mode for each trip in the simulation. These trip modes are, however, determined through a chain-based analysis. A key organizing principle in the model is that if a car is to be used on a tour, it must be used for the entire chain, since the car must be returned home at the end of the tour. No such constraint, however, exists with respect to other modes such as walk and transit. The paper presents the full conceptual model and estimation results for an initial empirical prototype. Because of the complex nature of the model decision structure, choice probabilities are simulated from direct generation of random utilities rather than through an analytical probability expression. CC : 001D15A FD : Transports; Modélisation; Choix modal; Voyage; Ménage; Modèle simulation; Tour itinéraire; Producteur trafic; Transport voyageur; Implémentation; Prototype; Estimation; Modèle prévision; Congrès international ED : Transportation; Modeling; Modal choice; Travel; Household; Simulation model; Tour; Trip generator; Passenger transportation; Implementation; Prototype; Estimation; Forecast model; International conference SD : Transportes; Modelización; Elección modal; Viaje; Familia; Modelo simulación; Vuelta; Productor tráfico; Transporte pasajero; Implementación; Prototipo; Estimación; Modelo previsión; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-15985.354000125281060040 480/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0408499 INIST ET : Energy demand and environmental taxes : the case of Greece AU : RAPANOS (Vassilis T.); POLEMIS (Michael L.) AF : Department of Economics, University of Athens/Grèce (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2005; Vol. 33; No. 14; Pp. 1781-1788; Bibl. 20 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects that energy taxes may have on reducing environmental pollution in Greece. We study the demand for residential energy for the period 1965-1998, and on the basis of these estimates we make forecasts for CO2 emissions in the coming years. Furthermore we develop alternative scenarios for tax changes, and study their effects on CO2 emissions. According to our findings the harmonization of the Greek energy taxes to the average European Union levels implies an increase of total CO2 emissions by 6% annually. If taxes are raised, however, to the highest European Union levels, the CO2 emissions are restricted significantly. These empirical findings may indicate that environmental taxation cannot be the unique instrument for combating pollution. CC : 001D06A01B; 001D06A01C1; 001D16C04A; 230 FD : Demande énergie; Politique fiscale; Grèce; Taxe; Taxation; Emission polluant; Carbone dioxyde; Secteur domestique; Consommation énergie; Répartition par source; Impact environnement; Simulation; Modèle économétrique; Politique énergétique; Prévention pollution; Lutte antipollution FG : Europe ED : Energy demand; Fiscal policy; Greece; Tax; Taxation; Pollutant emission; Carbon dioxide; Residential sector; Energy consumption; Distribution by sources; Environment impact; Simulation; Econometric model; Energy policy; Pollution prevention; Pollution control EG : Europe SD : Demanda energía; Política fiscal; Grecia; Tasa; Tasación; Emisión contaminante; Carbono dióxido; Sector doméstico; Consumo energía; Repartición por fuente; Impacto medio ambiente; Simulación; Modelo econométrico; Política energética; Prevención polución; Lucha anticontaminación LO : INIST-16417.354000124767930020 481/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0403129 INIST ET : Unilateral and collusive market power in the electricity pool of England and Wales AU : BUNN (Derek W.); MARTOCCIA (Maria); BUNN (Derek) AF : London Business School, Sussex Place, Regents Park/London NW1 4SA/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut.); London Business School/London/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy economics; ISSN 0140-9883; Coden EECODR; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2005; Vol. 27; No. 2; Pp. 305-315; Bibl. 20 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper uses a detailed market microsimulation of agent bidding behaviour to provide insights into the evolution of generator market power in the electricity pool of England and Wales. We identify an evolution, as market concentration declined, from unilateral market power dominance in the early years (1990-1996) to tacit collusive coordination towards the end (1996-2001), whereupon the pool was replaced by voluntary bilateral trading. The microsimulation analysis does not provide closed form solutions for market equilibrium nor a multi-agent co-evolutionary set of scenarios, but provides a diagnostic aid in determining when market concentration may decline to the point at which price leadership gives way to tacit collusion as means of exercising market power. CC : 001D06A01C4; 230 FD : Economie énergie; Electricité; Etude marché; Structure marché; Simulation; Historique; Enchère; Coût marginal; Rentabilité; Prix; Pays de Galles; Angleterre FG : Grande Bretagne; Royaume Uni; Europe ED : Energy economy; Electricity; Market survey; Market structure; Simulation; Case history; Bidding; Marginal cost; Profitability; Price; Wales; England EG : Great Britain; United Kingdom; Europe SD : Economía energía; Electricidad; Estudio mercado; Estructura mercado; Simulación; Estudio histórico; Subasta; Coste marginal; Rentabilidad; Precio; País de Gales; Inglaterra LO : INIST-18231.354000124650930050 482/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0389573 INIST ET : A hybrid agent-based model for estimating residential water demand AU : ATHANASIADIS (Ioannis N.); MENTES (Alexandros K.); MITKAS (Pericles A.); MYLOPOULOS (Yiannis A.); EDMONDS (Bruce); MÖHRING (Michael) AF : Aristotle University of Thessaloniki/541 24, Thessaloniki/Grèce (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Simulation : (San Diego, Calif.); ISSN 0037-5497; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; Vol. 81; No. 3; Pp. 175-187; Bibl. 49 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The global effort toward sustainable development has initiated a transition in water management. Water utility companies use water-pricing policies as an instrument for controlling residential water demand. To Support policy makers in their decisions, the authors have developed DAWN, a hybrid model for evaluating water-pricing policies. DAWN integrates an agent-based social model for the consumer with conventional econometric models and simulates the residential water demand-supply chain, enabling the evaluation of different scenarios for policy making. An agent community is assigned to behave as water consumers, while econometric and social models are incorporated into them for estimating water consumption. DAWN's main advantage is that it supports social interaction between consumers, through an influence diffusion mechanism, implemented via inter-agent communication. Parameters affecting water consumption and associated with consumers' social behavior can be simulated with DAWN. Real-world results of DAWN's application for the evaluation of five water-pricing policies in Thessaloniki, Greece, are presented. CC : 001D01A15; 001D02B08 FD : Système multiagent; Intelligence artificielle; Développement durable; Fixation prix; Tarification; Prise décision; Raisonnement basé sur modèle; Gestion ressource eau; Consommateur; Modèle économétrique; Logistique; Modèle hybride; Interaction sociale; Comportement consommateur; Comportement social; Psychologie sociale; Influence sociale ED : Multiagent system; Artificial intelligence; Sustainable development; Pricing; Tariffication; Decision making; Model-based reasoning; Water resource management; Consumer; Econometric model; Logistics; Hybrid model; Social interaction; Consumer behavior; Social behavior; Social psychology; Social influence SD : Sistema multiagente; Inteligencia artificial; Desarrollo sostenible; Fijación precios; Tarificación; Toma decision; Gestión recurso agua; Consumidor; Modelo econométrico; Logística; Modelo híbrido; Interacción social; Comportamiento consumidor; Conducta social; Psicología social; Influencia social LO : INIST-4999.354000132210160010 483/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0360734 INIST ET : Analysis of traffic flow characteristics on signalized arterials AU : GARTNER (Nathan H.); WAGNER (Peter) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts/Lowell, MA 01854/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Institute of Transport Research, German Aerospace Centre, Rutherfordstrasse 2/12489 Berlin/Allemagne (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2004; No. 1883; Pp. 94-100; Bibl. 17 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The characteristics of traffic flows on signalized arterials are examined within a cellular automaton microsimulation model. The model is used to analyze arterial throughput and travel times for given densities, coordination schemes, and signal spacings. A fundamental three-dimensional relationship is established between flow, density, and offsets for signalized arterials. In particular, it is shown that arterial throughput is dependent on offsets and that the constituent single-intersection limiting capacity, as determined by the saturation flow and the green splits, can be realized only under optimal coordination conditions for a limited range of densities on the arterial. This finding is a manifestation of the important role that signal coordination and, in fact, intelligent transportation systems in general play in the operation of urban street networks. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Ecoulement trafic; Feu signalisation; Modèle simulation; Automate cellulaire; Durée trajet; Densité; Capacité; Intersection; Résultat; Débit ED : Road traffic; Traffic flow; Traffic lights; Simulation model; Cellular automaton; Travel time; Density; Capacity; Intersection; Result; Flow rate SD : Tráfico carretera; Flujo tráfico; Semáforo; Modelo simulación; Autómata celular; Duración trayecto; Densidad; Capacidad; Intersección; Resultado; Gasto LO : INIST-10459B.354000124915940110 484/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0357974 INIST ET : Using microscopic simulation to evaluate potential intelligent transportation system strategies under nonrecurrent congestion AU : LIANYU CHU; LIU (Henry X.); RECKER (Will) AF : Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Irvine/Irvine, CA 92697/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 3 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Utah State University, 4110 Old Main Hill/Logan, UT 84322/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2004; No. 1886; Pp. 76-84; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A microsimulation method is presented for evaluating the effectiveness of potential intelligent transportation system (ITS) strategies under nonrecurrent congestion. The evaluated ITS strategies include incident management, adaptive ramp metering, traveler information systems, arterial management, and a combination of those strategies. These strategies are implemented and evaluated over a road network in Irvine, California, with the microsimulation model PARAMICS. The evaluation results show that all ITS strategies have positive effects on network performance. Because of the network topology (one major freeway with two parallel arterial streets), real-time traveler information has the greatest benefits among all single ITS strategies. However, a combination of ITS strategies can further increase benefits. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Congestion trafic; Système intelligent; Gestion trafic; Modélisation; Implémentation; Modèle microscopique; Evaluation système; Efficacité; Stratégie; Comptage trafic; Système information; Californie; Résultat; Scénario FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Traffic congestion; Intelligent system; Traffic management; Modeling; Implementation; Microscopic model; System evaluation; Efficiency; Strategy; Traffic meter; Information system; California; Result; Script EG : United States; North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Congestión tráfico; Sistema inteligente; Gestión tráfico; Modelización; Implementación; Modelo microscópico; Evaluación sistema; Eficacia; Estrategia; Contaje tráfico; Sistema información; California; Resultado; Argumento LO : INIST-10459B.354000138525620100 485/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0343546 INIST ET : The influence of traffic flow dynamics on urban soundscapes AU : DE COENSEL (Bert); DE MUER (Tom); YPERMAN (Isaak); BOTTELDOOREN (Dick); KANG (Jian) AF : Acoustics Group, Department of Information Technology, Ghent University, St. Pietersnieuwstraat 41/9000 Ghent/Belgique (1 aut., 2 aut., 4 aut.); Transportation Planning and Highway Engineering Group, Department of Civil Engineering, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Kasteelpark Arenberg 40/3001 Heverlee/Belgique (3 aut.); School of Architecture, University of Sheffield/Sheffield, S10 2TN/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Applied Acoustics; ISSN 0003-682X; Coden AACOBL; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2005; Vol. 66; No. 2; Pp. 175-194; Bibl. 44 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The development and validation of a model for dynamic traffic noise prediction is presented. The model is composed of a GIS-based traffic microsimulation part coupled with an emission model, and a beamtrace-based 2.5D propagation part, which takes into account multiple reflections and diffractions. The model can be used to analyze the influence of real urban traffic situations (e.g., traffic flow management, road saturation) in the usual equivalent sound level maps. However. it also allows to calculate and visualize statistical noise levels and indicators derived from them. Novel descriptors based on the power spectrum of noise level fluctuations can be obtained. A part of Gentbrugge, Belgium, is taken as a validation area; different traffic demand scenarios are simulated. CC : 001B40C50; 001D14A06; 001D15A; 295 FD : Acoustique; Zone urbaine; Bruit trafic; Ecoulement trafic; Modèle prévision; Modèle dynamique; Emission sonore; Propagation son; Etude impact; Etude cas; Ville; Belgique; Etude comparative; Résultat mesure; Simulation; Gentbrugge FG : Europe ED : Acoustics; Urban area; Traffic noise; Traffic flow; Forecast model; Dynamic model; Sound production; Sound propagation; Impact study; Case study; Town; Belgium; Comparative study; Measurement result; Simulation EG : Europe SD : Acústica; Zona urbana; Ruido tráfico; Flujo tráfico; Modelo previsión; Modelo dinámico; Emisión sonora; Propagación sonido; Estudio impacto; Estudio caso; Ciudad; Belgica; Estudio comparativo; Resultado medición; Simulación LO : INIST-14168.354000127073460030 486/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0333720 INIST ET : Household allocation module of Oregon2 model AU : HUNT (John Douglas); ABRAHAM (John E.); WEIDNER (Tara J.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW/Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.); Parsons Brinckerhoff, 400 SW Sixth Avenue, Suite 802/Portland, OR 97204-1412/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2004; No. 1898; Pp. 98-107; Bibl. 6 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The Oregon2 model is a set of seven integrated modules that together simulate the land use-transport system in the state of Oregon. One of these modules, called the household allocation module, updates the economic and demographic attributes of each person and household in a synthetic population, including age, sex, occupation, work and student status, job holdings, household membership, primary- and secondary-home size and location, income, and car ownership. It uses an agent-based microsimulation with Monte Carlo selection to identify choice outcomes and state transitions for each person or household concerning each economic or demographic attribute considered, with selection probabilities determined by using logit models and sampling distributions that are functions of relevant alternative attributes and household or person characteristics. Initial parameter values were estimated with data from Oregon household travel surveys, the University of Michigan Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, U.S. census data, and other published statistics. Spatial locations are represented in a system of roughly 3,000 geographic zones covering the study area. Six housing types, eight occupation categories, and continuous quantities for housing size and income are also represented. Housing markets are represented by using a disequilibrium structure, in which prices in each zone are updated in response to the vacancy rate relative to a reference rate, moving toward but not necessarily reaching a market-clearing solution. CC : 001D15B; 001D14A06; 295 FD : Transports; Occupation sol; Oregon; Description système; Modélisation; Ménage; Démographie; Economie régionale; Choix site; Logement habitation; Lieu travail; Etalonnage FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Land use; Oregon; System description; Modeling; Household; Demography; Regional economy; Site selection; Housing; Work place; Calibration EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transportes; Ocupación terreno; Oregon; Descripción sistema; Modelización; Familia; Demografía; Economía regional; Elección sitio; Habitación; Lugar trabajo; Contraste LO : INIST-10459B.354000126652540120 487/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0333519 INIST ET : Incremental modeling developments in Sacramento, California: Toward advanced integrated land use-transport model AU : ABRAHAM (John E.); GARRY (Gordon R.); HUNT (John Douglas); BROWNLEE (Alan T.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW/Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4/Canada (1 aut., 3 aut.); Sacramento Area Council of Governments, 1415 L Street, Suite 300/Sacramento, CA 95814/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Transportation and Streets Department, City of Edmonton/Edmonton, Alberta T5J 3A3/Canada (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2004; No. 1898; Pp. 108-113; Bibl. 8 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The regional transportation planning agency in Sacramento, California, is taking a three-pronged approach to updating its land use-transportation forecasting models: developing a long-term model design, improving existing models toward that design, and collecting data that can be used to support the existing models while the new design is being developed. The advanced integrated model design contains a tour-based travel model involving microsimulation of individual tours of synthetic households, a microsimulation-based land development model, and a spatial input-output model of the regional economy. The existing models consist of a land use model based on the MEPLAN model, a traditional four-step model of transportation demand improved with the addition of an automobile ownership submodel and joint consideration of mode and destination for work trips, and an interactive neighborhood-level parcel allocation system. The process described is one of improvement of current models and of moving toward a new model design while the agency faces ongoing modeling needs and uncertain budgets. CC : 001D15B; 001D14A06; 295 FD : Transports; Occupation sol; Modélisation; Californie; Système intégré; Conception; Modèle prévision; Planification; Transport régional; Long terme; Collecte donnée FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Land use; Modeling; California; Integrated system; Design; Forecast model; Planning; Regional transportation; Long term; Data gathering EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transportes; Ocupación terreno; Modelización; California; Sistema integrado; Diseño; Modelo previsión; Planificación; Transporte regional; Largo plazo; Recolección dato LO : INIST-10459B.354000126652540130 488/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0333206 INIST ET : TRESIS application of Transport and Environmental Strategic Impact Simulator to Sydney, Australia AU : HENSHER (David A.); STOPHER (Peter R.); BULLOCK (Philip); TU TON AF : Institute of Transport Studies, C37, University of Sydney/New South Wales 2006/Australie (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2004; No. 1898; Pp. 114-123; Bibl. 18 ref. LA : Anglais EA : An integrated microsimulation urban passenger transport model system, TRESIS (Transport and Environmental Strategic Impact Simulator), for evaluating the impact of a large number of interrelated policy instruments on urban travel behavior and the environment is presented. The model system has four integrated modules defining household location and automobile choices, commuter workplace and commuting travel choices, noncommuting travel activity, and worker-distributed work practices. The demand model system, estimated as a set of discrete and continuous choice models, is combined with a set of equilibrating criteria in each of the location, automobile, and commuting markets to predict overall demand for passenger travel in various socioeconomic segments, automobile classes, and geographic locations. The current version was developed to operate at a high level of aggregation for the Sydney, Australia, region, including a 14-zone system with a spiderweb network, and is designed to explore the impacts of broad strategic directions. The model system is embedded within a decision support system to make it an attractive suite of tools for practitioners. The usefulness of TRESIS is illustrated by its application to a major investment option in Northeast Sydney to replace a bottleneck created by the raising of a bridge either with bridge improvements together with improvements to a number of intersections on the roads serving the region or with several possible tunnel options, including different levels of tolls for the tunnels. The application of TRESIS to this case was considered a success: TRESIS provided a comprehensive regional view of the likely outcomes of the alternatives. CC : 001D15A; 001D15B FD : Transport voyageur; Politique environnement; Transport urbain; Simulateur; Comportement; Impact environnement; Australie; Description système; Application; Etude cas; Ménage; Voyage; Etude comparative FG : Océanie ED : Passenger transportation; Environmental policy; Urban transportation; Simulator; Behavior; Environment impact; Australia; System description; Application; Case study; Household; Travel; Comparative study EG : Oceania SD : Transporte pasajero; Política medio ambiente; Transporte urbano; Simulador; Conducta; Impacto medio ambiente; Australia; Descripción sistema; Aplicación; Estudio caso; Familia; Viaje; Estudio comparativo LO : INIST-10459B.354000126652540140 489/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0331445 INIST ET : Analysis of personal time-space prism vertex locations: A developing-country context AU : NEHRA (Ram S.); BANERJEE (Amlan); PENDYALA (Ram M.); DHINQRA (S. L.) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, ENB11B, 4202 East Fowler Avenue/Tampa, FL 33620-5350/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); Civil Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay/Powai, Mumbai 400 076/Inde (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2004; No. 1898; Pp. 19-27; Bibl. 11 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Recent developments in microsimulation modeling of activity and travel demand have called for the explicit recognition of time and space constraints under which individuals perform their activity and travel patterns. The estimation of time-space prism vertex locations-the perceived time constraints-is an important development in this context. Stochastic frontier modeling methodology offers a suitable framework for modeling and identifying the expected vertex locations of time-space prisms within which people execute activity-travel patterns. In this study, stochastic frontier models of time-space prism vertex locations are estimated for samples drawn from a household travel survey conducted in 2001 in the city of Thane on the west coast of India. The data from this survey offer an opportunity to study time constraints governing activity-travel patterns of individuals in a developing-country context. Comparisons between men and women, workers and nonworkers, and developed- and developing-country contexts were included to understand better how socioeconomic and sociocultural norms and characteristics affect time-space prism constraints. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Modèle simulation; Activité; Voyage; Demande transport; Corrélation spatiotemporelle; Analyse contrainte; Pays en développement; Modèle stochastique; Caractéristiques; Résultat; Etude comparative; Analyse donnée; Vertex ED : Transportation; Simulation model; Activity; Travel; Transport demand; Space time correlation; Stress analysis; Developing countries; Stochastic model; Characteristics; Result; Comparative study; Data analysis; Vertex SD : Transportes; Modelo simulación; Actividad; Viaje; Demanda transporte; Correlación espacio tiempo; Análisis tensión; Países en desarrollo; Modelo estocástico; Características; Resultado; Estudio comparativo; Análisis datos; Vértice LO : INIST-10459B.354000126652540030 490/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0298333 INIST ET : A hybrid controller for autonomous vehicles driving on automated highways AU : GIRAULT (Alain) AF : Inria, Rhône-Alpes, Pop Art Project, ZIRST, 655 Avenue de l'Europe/38330 Saint-Ismier/France (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part C, Emerging technologies; ISSN 0968-090X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2004; Vol. 12; No. 6; Pp. 421-452; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : This paper addresses the problem of the hybrid control of autonomous vehicles driving on automated highways. Vehicles are autonomous, so they do not communicate with each other nor with the infrastructure. Two problems have to be dealt with: a vehicle driving in a single-lane highway must never collide with its leading vehicle; and a vehicle entering the highway at a designated entry junction must be able to merge from the merging lane to the main lane, again without any collision. To solve these problems, we equip each vehicle with a hybrid controller, consisting of several continuous control laws embedded inside a finite state automaton. The automaton specifies when a given vehicle must enter the highway, merge into the main lane, yield to other vehicles, exit from the highway, and so on. The continuous control laws specify what acceleration the vehicle must have in order to avoid collisions with nearby vehicles. By carefully designing these control laws and the conditions guarding the automaton transitions, we are able to demonstrate three important results. First, we state the initial conditions guaranteeing that a following vehicle never collides with its leading vehicle. Second, we extend this first result to a lane of autonomous vehicles. Third, we prove that if all the vehicles are equipped with our hybrid controller, then no collision can ever occur, and all vehicles either merge successfully or are forced to drop out when they reach the end of their merging lane. Finally, we show the outcome of a highway microsimulation modelled after the Katy Corridor near Houston, Texas: our single-lane highway can accommodate 4000 vehicles per hour with neither drop-outs nor traffic congestion. It is entirely programmed in SHIFT, a hybrid systems simulation language developed at UC Berkeley by the PATH group. This shows that SHIFT is a well suited language for designing safe control laws for autonomous highway systems, among others. CC : 001D15C FD : Sécurité trafic; Trafic routier; Système intelligent; Régulation trafic; Description système; Commande hybride; Système autonome; Automate; Conception; Accélération; Contrôleur; Simulation ED : Traffic safety; Road traffic; Intelligent system; Traffic control; System description; Hybrid control; Autonomous system; Automaton; Design; Acceleration; Controller; Simulation SD : Seguridad tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Sistema inteligente; Regulación tráfico; Descripción sistema; Control híbrida; Sistema autónomo; Autómata; Diseño; Aceleración; Supervisor; Simulación LO : INIST-12377C.354000126107970020 491/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0297335 INIST ET : Comprehensive econometric microsimulator for daily activity-travel patterns AU : BHAT (Chandra R.); GUO (Jessica Y.); SRINIVASAN (Sivaramakrishnan); SIVAKUMAR (Aruna) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station C1761/Austin, TX 78712-0278/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2004; No. 1894; Pp. 57-66; Bibl. 19 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The Comprehensive Econometric Microsimulator for Daily Activity-Travel Patterns (CEMDAP) is a microsimulation implementation of an activity-travel modeling system. Given as input various land use, sociodemographic, activity system, and transportation level-of-service attributes, the system provides as output the complete daily activity-travel patterns for each individual in each household of a population. The underlying econometric modeling framework and the software development experience associated with CEMDAP are described. The steps involved in applying CEMDAP to predict activity-travel patterns and to perform policy analysis are also presented. Empirical results obtained from applying the software to the Dallas-Fort Worth area demonstrate that CEMDAP provides a means of analyzing policy impacts in ways that are generally infeasible with the conventional four-stage approach. CC : 001D15A; 001D15B FD : Transports; Voyage; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Econométrie; Activité; Quotidien; Application; Texas; Développement logiciel FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Travel; Modeling; Simulation model; Econometrics; Activity; Daily; Application; Texas; Software development EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transportes; Viaje; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Econometría; Actividad; Cotidiano; Aplicación; Texas; Desarrollo logicial LO : INIST-10459B.354000126886110070 492/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0296974 INIST ET : Merlin microsimulation system for predicting leisure activity-travel patterns AU : VAN MIDDELKOOP (Manon); BORGERS (Aloys); TIMMERMANS (Harry) AF : Urban Planning Group, Eindhoven University of Technology, P.O. Box 513/5600 MB Eindhoven/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2004; No. 1894; Pp. 20-27; Bibl. 24 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Development of a model of annual activity-travel patterns of leisure and vacation travel is reported. The simulation system, called Merlin, is a hybrid model system consisting of discrete choice models and rule-based models. It predicts the annual number of day trips and vacations, and the profile of such trips and vacations, including duration, travel party, timing, destination, type of accommodation, transport mode, day of departure, and expenditures. Separate models are derived for each of these facets. Microsimulation is used to predict aggregate patterns. The model's performance is satisfactory. CC : 001D15A FD : Transports; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Modèle prévision; Activité; Loisir; Voyage; Modèle hybride; Performance; Prise décision; Test ajustement; Résultat; Comportement; Tourisme ED : Transportation; Modeling; Simulation model; Forecast model; Activity; Leisure; Travel; Hybrid model; Performance; Decision making; Goodness of fit test; Result; Behavior; Tourism SD : Transportes; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Modelo previsión; Actividad; Ocio; Viaje; Modelo híbrido; Rendimiento; Toma decision; Prueba ajuste; Resultado; Conducta; Turismo LO : INIST-10459B.354000126886110030 493/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0263847 INIST ET : A model-based comparison of breast cancer screening strategies: Mammograms and clinical breast examinations AU : YU SHEN; PARMIGIANI (Giovanni) AF : Department of Biostatistics and Applied Mathematics, M.D. Anderson Cancer Center University of Texas, Houston, Texas/Baltimore, Maryland/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Departments of Oncology, Biostatistics, and Pathology, Johns Hopkins University/Baltimore, Maryland/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Courte communication, note brève; Niveau analytique SO : Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention; ISSN 1055-9965; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; Vol. 14; No. 2; Pp. 529-532; Bibl. 46 ref. LA : Anglais EA : In screening for secondary prevention of breast cancer, clinical breast examination (CBE) combined with mammography may improve overall screening sensitivity compared with mammography alone. A systematic evaluation of the relative expenses and projected benefit of combining these two screening modalities is not presently available. We addressed this issue using a microsimulation model incorporating age-specific preclinical duration of the disease, age-specific sensitivities of the two modalities, age-specific incidence of the disease, screening strategy, and competing causes of mortality. We examined a total of 48 screening strategies, depending on the age range, the examination interval, and whether mammography or CBE is given at every one or two exam. Our results indicate that a biennial mammography can be cost-effective if coupled with annual CBE. For each screening interval and starting age, giving mammography every two exams and CBE at every exam has the lowest marginal cost per year of quality-adjusted life saved, whereas giving both at every exam has the highest. Comparing annual mammography and CBE to biennial mammography and annual CBE from 50 to 79, the total cost was reduced by 35%, whereas the marginal quality-adjusted life years only decreased by 12%. Similar reductions are observed for other starting ages. It is cost-effective to have a biennial mammography if coupled with an annual CBE. Annual mammography combined with CBE every 6 months will lead to a 41% increase in the quality-adjusted life years compared with annual mammography and CBE from 50 to 79, whereas the total cost increases by 30%. CC : 002B04; 002B20E02 FD : Exploration clinique; Modèle simulation; Etude comparative; Mammographie; Homme; Dépistage; Modèle statistique; Cancérologie; Cancer sein FG : Glande mammaire pathologie; Tumeur maligne; Santé publique ED : Clinical investigation; Simulation model; Comparative study; Mammography; Human; Medical screening; Statistical model; Cancerology; Breast cancer EG : Mammary gland diseases; Malignant tumor; Public health SD : Exploración clínica; Modelo simulación; Estudio comparativo; Mastografía; Hombre; Descubrimiento; Modelo estadístico; Cancerología; C&#225;ncer del pecho LO : INIST-26637.354000129324150340 494/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0210932 BDSP FT : (Le coût des réductions de prix des médicaments aux Etats-Unis : un modèle financier de simulation des décisions en R & D) ET : The cost of US pharmaceutical price reductions : a financial simulation model or R & D decisions AU : ABBOTT (T.A.); VERNON (J.A.) AF : National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge. MA./Etats-Unis DT : Livre; Niveau monographique SO : The cost of US pharmaceutical price reductions : a financial simulation model or R & D decisions; Etats-Unis; Cambridge: NBER; Da. 2005-02; Pp. 35 p. LA : Anglais EA : Previous empirical studies that have examined the links between pharmaceutical price controls, profits, cash flows, and investment in research and development (R & D) have been largely based on retrospective statistical analyses of firm-and/or industry-level data. These studies, which have contributed numerous insights and findings to the literature, relied upon ad hoc reduced-form model specifications. In the current paper we take a very different approach : a prospective micro-simulation approach. Using Monte Carlo techniques we model how future price controls in the U.S. will impact early-stage product development decisions in the pharmaceutical industry. This is done within the context of a net present value (NPV) framework that appropriately reflects the uncertainty associated with R & D project technical success, development costs, and future revenues. Using partial-information estimators calibrated with the most contemporary clinical and economic data available, we demonstrate how pharmaceutical price controls will significantly diminish the incentives to undertake early-stage R & D investment. For example, we estimate that cutting prices by 40 to 50 percent in the U.S. will lead to between 30 to 60 percent fewer R & D projects being undertaken (in early-stage development). Given the recent legislative efforts to control prescription drug prices in the U.S., and the likelihood that price controls will prevail as a result, it is important to better understand the firm response to such a regulatory change CC : 002B30A11 FD : Prix; Médicament; Recherche scientifique; Contrôle; Dépense; Régulation; Etude impact; Aspect économique; Evaluation; Modèle économétrique; Aide décision; Etats Unis; Simulation FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Price; Drug; Scientific research; Check; Expenditure; Regulation(control); Impact study; Economic aspect; Evaluation; Econometric model; Decision aid; United States; Simulation EG : North America; America SD : Precio; Medicamento; Investigación científica; Control; Gasto; Regulación; Estudio impacto; Aspecto económico; Evaluación; Modelo econométrico; Ayuda decisión; Estados Unidos; Simulación LO : BDSP/IRDES-P193, CODBAR 0046441 495/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0210923 BDSP FT : (La politique de taxation en assurance maladie) ET : Tax policy for health insurance AU : GRUBER (J.) AF : National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge. MA./Etats-Unis DT : Livre; Niveau monographique SO : Tax policy for health insurance; Etats-Unis; Cambridge: NBER; Da. 2004-12; Pp. 35 p. LA : Anglais EA : Despite a $140 billion existing tax break for employer-provided health insurance, tax policy remains the tool of choice for many policy-makers in addressing the problem of the uninsured. In this paper, I use a microsimulation model to estimate the impact of various tax interventions to cover the uninsured, relative to an expansion of public insurance designed to accomplish the same goals. I contrast the efficiency of these policies along several dimensions, most notably the dollars of public spending per dollar of insurance value provided. I find that every tax policy is much less efficient than public insurance expansions : while public insurance costs the government only between $1.17 and $1.33 per dollar of insurance value provided, tax policies cost the government between $2.36 and $12.98 per dollar of insurance value provided. I also find that targeting is crucial for efficient tax policy ; policies tightly targeted to the lowest income earners have a much higher efficiency than those available higher in the income distribution. Within tax policies, tax credits aimed at employers are the most efficient, and tax credits aimed at employees are the least efficient, because the single greatest determinant of insurance coverage is being offered insurance by your employer, and because most employees who are offered already take up that insurance. Tax credits targeted at non-group coverage are fairly similar to employer tax credits at low levels, but much less efficient at higher levels CC : 002B30A11 FD : Impôt; Entreprise; Rejet social; Assurance maladie; Rendement; Politique sanitaire; Revenu individuel; Employé; Secteur public; Financement; Protection sociale; Analyse économique; Théorie; Evaluation; Etude impact; Modèle; Etats Unis; Simulation FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Levy; Firm; Social rejection; Health insurance; Yield; Health policy; Personal income; Employee; Public sector; Financing; Welfare aids; Economic analysis; Theory; Evaluation; Impact study; Models; United States; Simulation EG : North America; America SD : Impuesto; Empresa; Rechazo social; Seguro enfermedad; Rendimiento; Política sanitaria; Renta personal; Empleado; Sector público; Financiación; Protección social; Análisis económico; Teoría; Evaluación; Estudio impacto; Modelo; Estados Unidos; Simulación LO : BDSP/IRDES-P193, CODBAR 0046372 496/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0206831 INIST ET : Lifetime prevalence estimates of major depression: An indirect estimation method and a quantification of recall bias AU : KRUIJSHAAR (Michelle Elisabeth); BARENDREGT (Jan); VOS (Theo); DE GRAAF (Ron); SPIJKER (Jan); ANDREWS (Gavin) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, University Hospital Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut.); Department for Public Health Forecasting, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment/Bilthoven/Pays-Bas (1 aut.); Health Surveillance and Evaluation Section, Department of Human Services/Victoria, Melbourne/Australie (3 aut.); Netherlands Institute of Mental Health and Addiction/Utrecht/Pays-Bas (4 aut., 5 aut.); Clinical Research Unit on Anxiety and Depression, University of New South Wales/Sydney/Australie (6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : European journal of epidemiology; ISSN 0393-2990; Pays-Bas; Da. 2005; Vol. 20; No. 1; Pp. 103-111; Bibl. 37 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The measurement of lifetime prevalence of depression in cross-sectional surveys is biased by recall problems. We estimated it indirectly for two countries using modelling, and quantified the underestimation in the empirical estimate for one. A microsimulation model was used to generate population-based epidemiological measures of depression. We fitted the model to 1-and 12-month prevalence data from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS) and the Australian Adult Mental Health and Wellbeing Survey. The lowest proportion of cases ever having an episode in their life is 30% of men and 40% of women, for both countries. This corresponds to a lifetime prevalence of 20 and 30%, respectively, in a cross-sectional setting (aged 15-65). The NEMESIS data were 38% lower than these estimates. We conclude that modelling enabled us to estimate lifetime prevalence of depression indirectly. This method is useful in the absence of direct measurement, but also showed that direct estimates are underestimated by recall bias and by the cross-sectional setting. CC : 002B30A11; 002B18C07A; 002B18C07D FD : Etat dépressif; Prévalence; Epidémiologie; Santé publique; Estimation; Méthode indirecte; Quantification; Analyse quantitative; Rappel; Mémoire; Modèle théorique; Durée vie; Homme FG : Trouble humeur ED : Depression; Prevalence; Epidemiology; Public health; Estimation; Indirect method; Quantization; Quantitative analysis; Recall; Memory; Theoretical model; Lifetime; Human EG : Mood disorder SD : Estado depresivo; Prevalencia; Epidemiología; Salud pública; Estimación; Método indirecto; Cuantificación; Análisis cuantitativo; Llamada; Memoria; Modelo teórico; Tiempo vida; Hombre LO : INIST-20856.354000126742720140 497/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0203704 INIST ET : Optimal sequential kernel detection for dependent processes AU : STELAND (Ansgar); MELAS (Viatcheslav B.) AF : Fakultät für Mathematik, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Mathematik 3 NA 3/71, Universitätsstr. 150/44780 Bochum/Allemagne (1 aut.); Faculty of Mathematics and Mechanics, St. Petersburg State University, Bibliotechnaya, sq. 2/St Petersburg 198904/Russie (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of statistical planning and inference; ISSN 0378-3758; Coden JSPIDN; Pays-Bas; Da. 2005; Vol. 132; No. 1-2; Pp. 131-147; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : In many applications one is interested to detect certain (known) patterns in the mean of a process with the smallest delay. Using an asymptotic framework which allows to capture that feature, we study a class of appropriate sequential nonparametric kernel procedures under local nonparametric alternatives. We prove a new theorem on the convergence of the normed delay of the associated sequential detection procedure which holds for dependent time series under a weak mixing condition. The result suggests a simple procedure to select a kernel from a finite set of candidate kernels, and therefore may also be of interest from a practical point of view. Further, we provide two new theorems about the existence and an explicit representation of optimal kernels minimizing the asymptotic normed delay. The results are illustrated by some examples. CC : 001A02H02H FD : Méthode séquentielle; Estimation non paramétrique; Méthode noyau; Approximation asymptotique; Modèle économétrique; Finance; Série temporelle; Temps mélangeage; Contrôle qualité; Mélange loi probabilité; Théorème existence; Méthode statistique; Décision statistique; 62M10; 37A25; Processus dépendent; Cinétique enzyme; Régression non paramétrique; Génétique statistique ED : Sequential method; Non parametric estimation; Kernel method; Asymptotic approximation; Econometric model; Finance; Time series; Mixing time; Quality control; Mixed distribution; Existence theorem; Statistical method; Statistical decision; Dependent process; Enzyme kinetic; Nonparametric regression; Statistical genetics SD : Método secuencial; Estimación no paramétrica; Método núcleo; Aproximación asintótica; Modelo econométrico; Finanzas; Serie temporal; Tiempo mezcladura; Control calidad; Mezcla ley probabilidad; Teorema existencia; Método estadístico; Decisión estadística LO : INIST-17575.354000129465970090 498/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0185466 INIST FT : «Discrimination et inégalités» ET : Segregation and racial preferences: New theoretical and empirical approaches ET : («Discrimination and Unequal Outcome») AU : ROSS (Stephen L.) AF : Department of Economics, University of Connecticut, 341 Mansfield Road/Storrs, CT 06269-1063/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Annales d'économie et de statistique; ISSN 0769-489X; France; Da. 2003; No. 71-72; Pp. 143-172; Abs. français; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais FA : Ce papier s'intéresse au rôle des préférences dans les interactions sociales et leur implication en termes de ségrégation raciale. Le modèle théorique suggère que les ménages de couleur peuvent habiter dans des endroits à majorité blanche, et contrairement aux précédents modèles de ségrégation, ce modèle est cohérent avec soit la ségrégation ou l'intégration raciale. En utilisant les données de l'American Housing Survey, l'analyse empirique montre que les différences raciales dans les préférences pour l'éducation peuvent expliquer une partie substantielle de la ségrégation raciale observée à Philadelphie en 1985. CC : 001A02H02N2 FD : Ségrégation; Afro Américain; Interaction; Modèle théorique; Ménage; Intégration; Modèle économétrique; Modèle simulation; 62H30; 28XX; Préférence raciale ED : Segregation; African American; Interaction; Theoretical model; Household; Integration; Econometric model; Simulation model; Racial preference SD : Segregación; Afroamericano; Interacción; Modelo teórico; Familia; Integración; Modelo econométrico; Modelo simulación LO : INIST-21035.354000125968060040 499/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0183311 INIST ET : The need for microsimulation to evaluate osteoporosis interventions AU : VANNESS (David J.); TOSTESON (Anna N. A.); GABRIEL (Sherine E.); MELTON (L. Joseph III) AF : Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin Medical School/Madison, WI 53726/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Medicine, Dartmouth Medical School/Lebanon, NH/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Department of Community and Family Medicine, Dartmouth Medical School/NH, Lebanon/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine/Rochester, MN/Etats-Unis (3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Osteoporosis international; ISSN 0937-941X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2005; Vol. 16; No. 4; Pp. 353-358; Bibl. 39 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Simulations play an increasingly important role in the evaluation of osteoporosis interventions. Existing evaluations have been based on &dquot;reduced-form&dquot; cohort simulations that do not reflect the complexity and heterogeneity of osteoporosis and its outcomes. Such simplified models offer parsimony and ease of use, but they also are limited in their ability to explain and extrapolate outcomes in a way that is most useful for both clinical and health policy decision makers. Alternatively, evaluations could be based on &dquot;structural&dquot; microsimulations, which explicitly model the underlying biology of osteoporosis at the individual level. The structural approach presents technical challenges, including the need to obtain more-detailed data and the requirement that underlying biological models be validated. However, evaluations based on structural microsimulation may ultimately provide substantially more useful information, resulting in improved decision making. CC : 002B15A FD : Besoin; Ostéoporose; Analyse coût efficacité; Analyse décision; Simulation FG : Système ostéoarticulaire pathologie; Economie santé; Santé publique ED : Need; Osteoporosis; Cost efficiency analysis; Decision analysis; Simulation EG : Diseases of the osteoarticular system; Health economy; Public health SD : Necesidad; Osteoporosis; Análisis costo eficacia; Análisis decisión; Simulación LO : INIST-22974.354000125074800010 500/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0141969 INIST ET : Comparative analysis of household activity matching approaches in Transportation Analysis and Simulation System AU : HOBEIKA (Antoine G.); PARADKAR (Rajan) AF : Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Tech/Blacksburg, VA 24061-0105/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Michael Baker Jr. Inc., 801 Cromwell Park Dr., Suite 110/Glen Burnie, MD 21061/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2004; Vol. 130; No. 6; Pp. 706-715; Bibl. 3 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Transportation Analysis and Simulation System (TRANSIMS) is a microsimulation model, which uses census data to generate a synthetic population and assigns activities using activity survey data to each person of every household of the synthetic population. The synthetic households generated from the census data are matched with the survey households based on their demographic characteristics. The activities of the survey household individuals are then assigned to the individuals of the matched synthetic households. A classification and regression tree algorithm program is used to build the matching tree for the activity survey households based on some demographic independent variables. The current TRANSIMS model utilizes times spent at activities as dependent variables for building the classification tree. This research instead uses the travel times for travel between activities as dependent variables, i.e., using the travel time pattern instead of activity time pattern to match the persons in the survey households with the synthetic households. This approach assumes that if the travel time patterns are the same then we can match the survey households to the synthetic population, i.e., people with similar demographic characteristics tend to have similar travel time patterns. The algorithm of the activity generator module along with the original set of dependent variables were first used to generate a base case scenario. Further tests were carried out using an alternative set of dependent variables in the algorithm. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to test the affect of different sets of dependent and independent variables in generating activities using the algorithm of the activity generator. The paper documents the results from all these tests and provides conclusions and recommendations. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Modèle simulation; Etude comparative; Classification; Collecte donnée; Modèle prévision; Voyage; Ménage; Enquête; Régression; Implémentation; Démographie; Scénario; Analyse sensibilité; Etude cas; Modèle TRANSIMS ED : Transportation; Simulation model; Comparative study; Classification; Data gathering; Forecast model; Travel; Household; Survey; Regression; Implementation; Demography; Script; Sensitivity analysis; Case study SD : Transportes; Modelo simulación; Estudio comparativo; Clasificación; Recolección dato; Modelo previsión; Viaje; Familia; Encuesta; Regresión; Implementación; Demografía; Argumento; Análisis sensibilidad; Estudio caso LO : INIST-572E.354000122528970030 501/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0125637 INIST ET : Analysis of delay caused by midblock jeepney stops with use of simulation AU : PALMIANO (Hilario Sean O.); YAI (Tetsuo); UEDA (Shimpei); FUKUDA (Daisuke) AF : National Center for Transportation Studies, University of the Apacible Street, Diliman/Quezon City 1101, Metro Manila/Philippines (1 aut.); Department of Human Built Environment, Tokyo Institute of Technology, G3 Building 10F, 4259, Nagatsuta-cho/Midori-ku, Yokohama, 226-8502/Japon (2 aut.); Yokohama City Environmental Bureau, Matsumura Building 7F, 1-13, Sumiyoshi-cho/Naka-ku, Yokohama, 231-0013/Japon (3 aut.); Civil Engineering Department, Tokyo Institute of Technology, G3 Building 10F, 4259, Nagatsuta-cho/Midori-ku, Yokohama, 226-8502/Japon (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2004; No. 1884; Pp. 65-74; Bibl. 12 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Public transit enjoys an almost 80% share of trips in Metro Manila, and the most widely used is the paratransit vehicle called the jeepney. These 18- to 22-seat vehicles, which evolved from American army service jeeps left after World War II, provide inexpensive and convenient door-to-door service but cause disruptions in traffic flow because of aggressive and problematic driving behavior, particularly when stopping to pick up or unload passengers. Other vehicles are observed to experience delays, especially in the vicinity of midblock jeepney stops with high passenger demand. An overview of work done in building and validating a traffic microsimulation program focuses on modeling the distinctive stopping behavior of jeepneys that considers both transit vehicle and passenger agents. Propensity for nonobservance of lanes and aggressive lateral movements of general traffic are considered in the model. There is also a discussion of the result of simulation experiments that used the developed simulation model called JSTOPSIM and are designed to analyze trends on average vehicle delay experienced by through vehicles as passenger demand and volume of transit and non-public transit vehicles vary. The capability to quantify objectively delays attributable to jeepney stops is important in advocating policies to improve design and operation for the improvement of the public transit system as a whole. CC : 001D15B FD : Transport voyageur; Transport en commun non public; Philippines; Retard; Analyse quantitative; Modèle simulation; Ecoulement trafic; Arrêt; Validation; Corrélation spatiotemporelle FG : Asie ED : Passenger transportation; Paratransit; Philippine Islands; Delay; Quantitative analysis; Simulation model; Traffic flow; Shutdown; Validation; Space time correlation EG : Asia SD : Transporte pasajero; Transporte colectivo no público; Filipinas; Retraso; Análisis cuantitativo; Modelo simulación; Flujo tráfico; Parada; Validación; Correlación espacio tiempo LO : INIST-10459B.354000126117610080 502/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0123968 INIST ET : Applying microscopic pedestrian flow simulation to railway station design evaluation in Lisbon, Portugal AU : HOOGENDOORN (Serge P.); HAUSER (Miklos); RODRIGUES (Nuno) AF : Transport and Planning Section, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, P.O. Box 5048/2600 GA Delft/Pays-Bas (1 aut.); DHV Environment and Infrastructure, Unit Mobility and Transportation,/Amersfoort/Pays-Bas (2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2004; No. 1878; Pp. 83-94; Bibl. 20 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The assessment of station designs by applying pedestrian flow simulation models is addressed. In particular, station design issues pertain to the way access gates will affect pedestrian flow operations in regard to levels of service, congestion levels, average walking times, delays incurred at gates, and so forth. Effects of different system layouts are studied, as well as the difference between different gate systems (low- and high-capacity systems), in regard to processing passenger flows. Finally, pedestrian flow operations in case of emergency situations are of interest. To examine those issues, pedestrian traffic operations for different station design alternatives are predicted with the dynamic microscopic pedestrian flow model NOMAD. That is done for reference situations (validation) as well as for design alternatives. The NOMAD model has been extended with a new module describing pedestrian operations (i.e., user-optimal gate choice) at the gates. It is found that the simple design guidelines used to set up the design alternatives provide a satisfactory level of service to transferring pedestrians and that the gates can be installed without compromising passenger safety. Nevertheless, the need to reroute, inefficient gate use, and interactions between conflicting pedestrian flows cause small but significant delays to transferring pedestrians that cannot have been predicted without the use of an adequate microsimulation model. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic piéton; Ecoulement trafic; Gare ferroviaire; Portugal; Modèle simulation; Modèle microscopique; Méthodologie; Indicateur; Evaluation performance; Résultat; Scénario; Recommandation FG : Europe ED : Pedestrian traffic; Traffic flow; Railroad station; Portugal; Simulation model; Microscopic model; Methodology; Indicator; Performance evaluation; Result; Script; Recommendation EG : Europe SD : Tráfico peatones; Flujo tráfico; Estación ferroviaria; Portugal; Modelo simulación; Modelo microscópico; Metodología; Indicador; Evaluación prestación; Resultado; Argumento; Recomendación LO : INIST-10459B.354000121182050110 503/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0111930 INIST ET : Guidelines for calibration of microsimulation models: Framework and applications AU : DOWLING (Richard); SKABARDONIS (Alexander); HALKIAS (John); MCHALE (Gene); ZAMMIT (Grant) AF : Dowling Associates, Inc., 180 Grand Avenue, Suite 250/Oakland, CA 94612/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley, 109 McLaughlin Hall/Berkeley, CA 94720-1720/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); FHWA, Office of Operations, Transportation Management, 400 7th Street, SW, HOTM-1/Washington, D.C. 20590/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); FHWA, Office of Operations, Research and Development, Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center, 6300 Georgetown Pike, HRDO-4/McLean, VA 22101/Etats-Unis (4 aut.); FHWA, 61 Forsyth, Street., SW, Suite 17T26/Atlanta, GA 30303/Etats-Unis (5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2004; No. 1876; Pp. 1-9; Bibl. 13 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The past few years have seen a rapid evolution in the sophistication of traffic microsimulation models and a consequent major expansion of their use in transportation engineering and planning practice. Researchers and practitioners have employed an extensive array of approaches to calibrate these models and have selected a wide range of parameters to calibrate and a broad range of acceptance criteria. A methodical, top-down approach to model calibration is outlined; it focuses the initial effort on a few key parameters that have the greatest impact on model performance and then proceeds to less critical parameters to finalize the calibration. A three-step calibration/validation process is recommended. First, the model is calibrated for capacity at the key bottlenecks in the system (the capacity calibration step). Second, the model is calibrated for traffic flows at nonbottleneck locations in the system (the route choice calibration step). Finally, the overall model performance is calibrated against field-measured system performance measures such as travel time and delay (the system performance calibration step). This three-step process is illustrated in an example application for a freeway/arterial corridor. CC : 001D15B; 001D15C FD : Ecoulement trafic; Trafic routier; Modèle simulation; Modèle microscopique; Etalonnage; Méthodologie; Validation; Recommandation; Evaluation performance; Mesure in situ; Application; Exemple; Capacité ED : Traffic flow; Road traffic; Simulation model; Microscopic model; Calibration; Methodology; Validation; Recommendation; Performance evaluation; Measurement in situ; Application; Example; Capacity SD : Flujo tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Modelo simulación; Modelo microscópico; Contraste; Metodología; Validación; Recomendación; Evaluación prestación; Medición en sitio; Aplicación; Ejemplo; Capacidad LO : INIST-10459B.354000126468900010 504/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0111769 INIST ET : Development of a high-level algorithm verification and validation procedure for traffic microsimulation models AU : REINKE (David); DOWLING (Richard); HRANAC (Robert); ALEXIADIS (Vassilios) AF : Dowling Associates, Inc., 180 Grand Avenue, Suite 250/Oakland, CA 94612-3774/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); Cambridge Systematics, Inc., 555 12th Street, Suite 1600/Oakland, CA 94607/Etats-Unis (3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2004; No. 1876; Pp. 151-158; Bibl. 12 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The successful acceptance of traffic microsimulation software depends crucially on the verification and validation (V&V) procedures for testing the core behavioral algorithms. These must be sufficient to convince researchers, software developers, and practitioners that the algorithms are accurate and robust. V&V procedures must also be well documented to ensure public acceptance. A suggested V&V procedure is presented. The central theme is that verification and validation are integral parts of the entire algorithm development process. A three-stage algorithm development and V&V procedure for traffic microsimulation algorithms is recommended. Algorithm development includes identifying key variables and setting model parameters. Next, the software implementation of the algorithm is tested during the algorithm-level testing stage with a combination of hypothetical and simple real-world data. Finally, system-level testing of the algorithm software is done within a complete microsimulation modeling system. In the last stage, the system with the new algorithm is tested against complex real-world data sets. CC : 001D15B; 001D15C FD : Modèle simulation; Modèle microscopique; Ecoulement trafic; Algorithme; Validation; Vérification; Outil logiciel; Norme ISO; Méthodologie; Modèle comportement; Acceptation; Exemple; Automobile; Conducteur véhicule ED : Simulation model; Microscopic model; Traffic flow; Algorithm; Validation; Verification; Software tool; ISO standard; Methodology; Behavior model; Acceptance; Example; Motor car; Vehicle driver SD : Modelo simulación; Modelo microscópico; Flujo tráfico; Algoritmo; Validación; Verificación; Herramienta software; Norma ISO; Metodología; Modelo comportamiento; Aceptación; Ejemplo; Automóvil; Conductor vehículo LO : INIST-10459B.354000126468900160 505/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0111130 INIST ET : Congested freeway microsimulation model using VISSIM AU : GOMES (Gabriel); MAY (Adolf); HOROWITZ (Roberto) AF : 2168 Etcheverry Hall, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of California/Berkeley, CA 94720/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); 108A McLaughlin Hall, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California/Berkeley, CA 94720/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); 6193 Etcheverry Hall, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of California/ Berkeley, CA 94720./Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2004; No. 1876; Pp. 71-81; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A procedure for constructing and calibrating a detailed model of a freeway by using VISSIM is presented and applied to a 15-mi stretch of I-210 West in Pasadena, California. This test site provides several challenges for microscopic modeling: a high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lane with an intermittent barrier, a heavy freeway connector, 20 metered on-ramps with and without HOV bypass lanes, and three interacting bottlenecks. Field data used as input to the model were compiled from two separate sources: loop detectors on the on-ramps and main line (PeMS) and a manual survey of on-ramps and off-ramps. Gaps in both sources made it necessary to use a composite data set, constructed from several typical days. FREQ was used as an intermediate tool to generate a set of origin-destination matrices from the assembled boundary flows. The model construction procedure consists of (1) identification of important geometric features, (2) collection and processing of traffic data, (3) analysis of the main-line data to identify recurring bottlenecks, (4) VISSIM coding, and (5) calibration based on observations from Step 3. A qualitative set of goals was established for the calibration. These were met with relatively few modifications to VISSIM's driver behavior parameters. CC : 001D15B; 001D15C FD : Modèle simulation; Ecoulement trafic; Autoroute; Congestion trafic; Trafic routier; Collecte donnée; Modèle origine destination; Etalonnage; Goulot étranglement; Voie circulation; Comportement; Conducteur véhicule; Paramètre; Modèle VISSIM ED : Simulation model; Traffic flow; Freeway; Traffic congestion; Road traffic; Data gathering; Origin destination model; Calibration; Bottleneck; Traffic lane; Behavior; Vehicle driver; Parameter SD : Modelo simulación; Flujo tráfico; Autopista; Congestión tráfico; Tráfico carretera; Recolección dato; Modelo origen destinación; Contraste; Gollete estrangulamiento; Vía tráfico; Conducta; Conductor vehículo; Parámetro LO : INIST-10459B.354000126468900080 506/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0041576 INIST ET : Response from a MARKAL technology model to the EMF scenario assumptions AU : SMEKENS-RAMIREZ MORALES (Koen E. L.); WEYANT (John P.) AF : New and Renewable Energy, ECN Policy Studies. PO Box 1/1755 ZG, Petten/Pays-Bas (1 aut.); Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University/Stanford/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy economics; ISSN 0140-9883; Coden EECODR; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2004; Vol. 26; No. 4; Pp. 655-674; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper describes the modelling effort and analysis undertaken at ECN Policy Studies in the EMF-19 framework by using the Western European MARKAL model. The model structure and the advanced economic feed back formulation used is briefly described. Scenarios introducing carbon emissions reduction targets (by concentration level or by carbon taxes) lead to changes in energy mix, in technology deployment and in electricity production compared to a reference case. The impact and importance of carbon capture and storage as it appears as part of the solution to achieve the emission targets is analysed. CC : 001D06A01B; 001D06A01A; 001D16C04A; 001D06A01C1; 230 FD : Politique énergétique; Prévention pollution; Lutte antipollution; Pollution air; Carbone dioxyde; Simulation; Long terme; Consommation énergie; Répartition par source; Optimisation économique; Optimisation sous contrainte; Quota; Emission polluant; Taxation; Séquestration carbone; Energie primaire; Energie finale; Programmation linéaire; Modèle économétrique; Modèle MARKAL ED : Energy policy; Pollution prevention; Pollution control; Air pollution; Carbon dioxide; Simulation; Long term; Energy consumption; Distribution by sources; Economic optimization; Constrained optimization; Quota; Pollutant emission; Taxation; Carbon sequestration; Primary energy; Final energy; Linear programming; Econometric model SD : Política energética; Prevención polución; Lucha anticontaminación; Contaminación aire; Carbono dióxido; Simulación; Largo plazo; Consumo energía; Repartición por fuente; Optimización económica; Optimización con restricción; Emisión contaminante; Tasación; Secuestro carbono; Energía primaria; Programación lineal; Modelo econométrico LO : INIST-18231.354000120377690080 507/793 NO : PASCAL 05-0028530 INIST ET : Dynamic microsimulation to model multiple outcomes in cohorts of critically ill patients AU : CLERMONT (Gilles); KAPLAN (Vladimir); MORENO (Rui); VINCENT (Jean-Louis); LINDE-ZWIRBLE (Walter T.); VAN HOUT (Ben); ANGUS (Derek C.) AF : Room 606B, Scaife Hall, Critical Care Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, 3550 Terrace Street/Pittsburgh, PA, 15261/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 7 aut.); Intensive Care Medicine, Hospital de St. Antonio dos Capuchos/Lisbon/Portugal (3 aut.); Department of Intensive Care, Erasmus University Hospital/Brussels/Belgique (4 aut.); Health Process Management/Doylestown, PA/Etats-Unis (5 aut.); Department of Health Care Policy and Management, Erasmus University/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (6 aut.); Center for Research on Health Care and Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh/Pittsburgh, PA/Etats-Unis (7 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Intensive care medicine : (Print); ISSN 0342-4642; Coden ICMED9; Allemagne; Da. 2004; Vol. 30; No. 12; Pp. 2237-2244; Bibl. 23 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: Existing intensive care unit (ICU) prediction tools forecast single outcomes, (e.g., risk of death) and do not provide information on timing. Objective: To build a model that predicts the temporal patterns of multiple outcomes, such as survival, organ dysfunction, and ICU length of stay, from the profile of organ dysfunction observed on admission. Design: Dynamic microsimulation of a cohort of ICU patients. Setting: 49Forty-nine ICUs in 11 countries. Patients: One thousand four hundred and forty-nine patients admitted to the ICU in May 1995. Interventions: None. Model construction: We developed the model on all patients (n=989) from 37 randomly-selected ICUs using daily Sequential Organ Function Assessment (SOFA) scores. We validated the model on all patients (n=460) from the remaining 12 ICUs, comparing predicted-to-actual ICU mortality, SOFA scores, and ICU length of stay (LOS). Main results: In the validation cohort, the predicted and actual mortality were 20.1% (95%CI: 16.2%-24.0%) and 19.9% at 30 days. The predicted and actual mean ICU LOS were 7.7 (7.0-8.3) and 8.1 (7.4-8.8) days, leading to a 5.5% underestimation of total ICU bed-days. The predicted and actual cumulative SOFA scores per patient were 45.2 (39.8-50.6) and 48.2 (41.6-54.8). Predicted and actual mean daily SOFA scores were close (5.1 vs 5.5, P=0.32). Several organ-organ interactions were significant. Cardiovascular dysfunction was most, and neurological dysfunction was least, linked to scores in other organ systems. Conclusions: Dynamic microsimulation can predict the time course of multiple short-term outcomes in cohorts of critical illness from the profile of organ dysfunction observed on admission. Such a technique may prove practical as a prediction tool that evaluates ICU performance on additional dimensions besides the risk of death. CC : 002B27B; 002B27C; 002B27B01 FD : Réanimation; Soin intensif; Pronostic; Malade état grave; Homme ED : Resuscitation; Intensive care; Prognosis; Critically ill; Human SD : Reanimación; Cuidado intensivo; Pronóstico; Enfermo estado grave; Hombre LO : INIST-16256.354000122874140130 508/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-05-14295 INIST FT : 35 heures : les experts font la loi ET : (35 hour week : Experts laying down the law) AU : BOISARD (Pierre) AF : Centre d'études de l'emploi/France (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Travail et emploi : (Paris); ISSN 0224-4365; France; Da. 2004; No. 100; 10, 85-98 [15 p.]; Bibl. 1 p.3/4 LA : Français FA : Les loi Aubry I et II relatives à la réduction du temps de travail ont laissé peu de place aux partenaires sociaux dans la construction de nouvelles règles ; a contrario elles ont accru le rôle des experts économiques. L'auteur veut montrer qu'elles ont été élaborées à partir des conclusions des simulations économétriques, et ont minimisé la création d'un consensus minimal, au profit d'aspects économiques. Un rappel historique évoque les premières simulations économétriques, puis les nombreuses évaluations macroéconomiques tentant d'évaluer ses effets en termes d'emploi. Mais des études microéconomiques modulent ces résultats et soulignent la nécessité de véritables négociations pour imposer une visée de partage de l'emploi. En 1998, le choix d'une loi-cadre et d'une négociation décentralisée plutôt que d'un accord interprofessionnel national fragilisera ce processus déjà délicat. CC : 52135; 521 FD : Législation sociale; Droit du travail; Réduction; Temps de travail; France; Rôle politique; Expert; Comparaison; Simulation; Modèle économétrique; Historique; Efficacité économique; Econométrie; Emploi; Besoin; Négociation collective; Partenaire social; Modèle micro-économique; Modèle macro-économique ED : Social Legislation; Labour Law; Reduction; Working time; France; Political Role; Expert; Comparison; Simulation; Econometric Model; Case History; Economic effectiveness; Econometric Analysis; Employment; Need; Collective Bargaining; Social partner LO : INIST-22284.354000122630350070 509/793 NO : FRANCIS 531-05-12055 PRODIG-INTERGEO ET : Microsimulation for local impact analysis : an application to plant shutdown AU : REPHANN (T.J.); MÄKILÄ (K.); HOLM (E.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of regional science; ISSN 0022-4146; Etats-Unis; Da. 2005; Vol. 45; No. 1; Pp. 183-222; Abs. anglais; Bibl. 3 p.; 14 fig., 1 tabl., annexe LA : Anglais FA : Les AA. décrivent un modèle de microsimulation susceptible d'être utilisé pour étudier l'impact d'un événement économique régional. Le modèle prend en compte des facteurs spatiaux, sociaux et économiques, et il autorise une aggrégation à des échelles géographiques diverses, pour des cohortes diverses, et pour des variables que l'on ne prend pas couramment en considération dans une étude d'impact. Exemple d'une fermeture d'établissement en Suède CC : 531132; 531 FD : Simulation; Impact économique; Fermeture d'usine; Micro-simulation; Modèle; Economie régionale; Structure socio-économique; Emploi; Suède ED : Simulation; Economic impact; Factory closure; Model; Regional economy; Socio-economic system; Employment; Sweden LO : INTG 510/793 NO : FRANCIS 531-05-11070 PRODIG-INTERGEO FT : (&dquot;Information géographique : de la connaissance à l'action&dquot;) ET : Reflections on regional science in business AU : CLARKE (G.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : GeoINova; ISSN 0874-6540; Portugal; Da. 2002; No. 6; Pp. 11-31; Abs. anglais/français/portugais; Bibl. 25 ref.; 6 tabl., 6 fig., équations LA : Anglais FA : Le but de cet article est de récapituler les arguments justifiant la nécessité et les avantages de l'utilisation des systèmes d'information géographique qui permettent de réaliser des modèles d'aide à la décision dans divers domaines de la science régionale. Une série d'exemples d'application pratique développée au département de géographie de l'Université de Leeds est présentée à partir de deux méthodologies principales : modèles d'interaction spatiale et modèles de microsimulation CC : 5318A; 531 FD : Science régionale; Modèle; Interaction spatiale; Microsimulation; Système d'information géographique; Recherche; Recherche opérationnelle; Optimisation; Géographie appliquée; Analyse spatiale; Modèle dynamique; Modèle de décision ED : Regional science; Model; Spatial interaction; Geographical information system; Research; Operational research; Optimization; Applied geography; Spatial analysis; Dynamic model; Decision model LO : INTG 511/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-05-10677 INIST FT : Les aides publiques à la garde des jeunes enfants : Une analyse à partir du modèle de microsimulation MYRIADE : Enfance ET : (State support for childcare. An analysis using the MYRIADE microsimulation model : Childhood) AU : LEGENDRE (Francois); LORGNET (Jean-Paul); MAHIEU (Ronan); THIBAULT (Florence) AF : ÉRUDITE/université de Pavis-XH. CNAF-Département des statistiques, des prévisions et des analyses/France (1 aut.); CNAF - Département des statistiques, des prévisions et des analyses (DSER)/France (2 aut., 3 aut.); CNAF - DSER/Centre d'économie de Paris-Nord/Université de Paris XIII/France (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Recherches et prévisions : (Paris); ISSN 1149-1590; France; Da. 2004; No. 75; 5-20, 75 [16 p.]; Abs. anglais; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Français FA : Les parents d'enfants nés à partir du 1er janvier 2004 peuvent bénéficier d'une nouvelle prestation, la prestation d'accueil du jeune enfant (PAJE), dont la vocation est à la fois de mieux les solvabiliser s'ils optent pour une garde payante et de les soutenir financièrement s'ils réduisent leur activité professionnelle afin de s'occuper eux-mêmes de leurs enfants. Pour mieux rendre compte des effets budgétaires et redistributifs de cette nouvelle prestation, le modèle de microsimulation de la Caisse nationale des allocations familiales - MYRIADE -a été amendé. Il s'agissait: de mieux décrire la situation antérieure à la réforme - en matière de modes de garde - afin de simuler plus précisément les effets potentiels de modifications de la réglementation dans ce domaine. En plus de la PAJE, deux réformes alternatives des prestations en vigueur en 2003 sont étudiées dans cet article. En fournissant des éléments comparatifs, leur analyse permet d'apprécier les options retenues dans le cadre de la nouvelle prestation. CC : 52164; 521 FD : Allocations familiales; Prestation sociale; Enfant; Garde des enfants; France; Politique sociale; Réforme; Analyse comparative; Statistiques ED : Family allowance; Social Allowance; Child; Child care service; France; Social Policy; Reform; Comparative analysis; Statistics LO : INIST-22918.354000116845460010 512/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-05-10323 INIST FT : Les retraites au futur simulations et projections ET : (Retirements in the future: simulations and projections) AU : COLIN (Christel); METTE (Corinne); BRIARD (Karine); PENNEC (Sophie); PRIVAT (Anne-Gisèle); BELHAJ (Hanène); BLANCHET (Didier) AF : Drees/France (1 aut., 2 aut.); Onav/France (3 aut.); Cnav/France (4 aut., 5 aut.); Université Paris 9, Dauphine/France (6 aut.); Insee/France (7 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau monographique SO : Retraite et société : (Paris); ISSN 1167-4687; France; Da. 2003; No. 40; ; Pp. 24-167; Bibl. dissem. LA : Français FA : Cet ensemble d'articles se consacre à l'analyse des différents facteurs qui concourent à façonner les retraites des assurés sociaux en France. Les AA. se servent ici de modèles de microsimulation afin d'émettre des hypothèses à plus ou moins long terme concernant le montant et les diverses formes de capitalisations des futures retraites CC : 52142A; 521 FD : Retraite; France; Carrière professionnelle; Typologie; Simulation; Sociologie économique; Assurance vieillesse; Régime de retraite; Régime complémentaire; Statistiques; Analyse multivariée ED : Retirement; France; Professional career; Typology; Simulation; Economic sociology; Retirement benefit; Retirement Plan; Complementary Health Care System; Statistics; Multivariate Analysis LO : INIST-27412.354000116734400010 513/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0604821 INIST ET : Estimation of travel times on urban freeways under incident conditions AU : HOBEIKA (Antoine); DHULIPALA (Sudheer) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Polytechnic and State University/Blacksburg, VA 24061-0105/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2004; No. 1867; Pp. 97-106; Bibl. 14 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Travelers on urban freeways are interested in knowing how long it will take them to reach their destinations, especially under bottleneck, congested, and incident conditions. Travel time information is important for advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) applications and for assessing the performance of the transportation network. Though many advances have been made in the field of traffic engineering and intelligent transportation system applications, practical travel time estimation procedures for ATIS applications under incident conditions are lacking. An algorithm for travel time estimation on urban freeways for ATIS applications under incident conditions is presented. The algorithm is based on point estimates of traffic variables obtained from detectors placed on every link of the freeway network. The output required from the detectors is flow and occupancy aggregated for a short time interval (5 min). The system for travel time estimation is based on traffic flow theory rather than on statistical methods. The travel times calculated using this system are compared with the results obtained using the FHWA microsimulation computer package CORSIM in the Traffic Software Integrated System (TSIS) Version 5.0. The algorithm results are found to be reasonable and accurate compared with CORSIM results. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Autoroute; Durée trajet; Voie urbaine rapide; Système information; Incident; Détection; Algorithme; Arbre décision; Méthode calcul; Validation; Goulot étranglement; Congrès international ED : Road traffic; Freeway; Travel time; Urban expressway; Information system; Mishap; Detection; Algorithm; Decision tree; Computing method; Validation; Bottleneck; International conference SD : Tráfico carretera; Autopista; Duración trayecto; Vía urbana rápida; Sistema información; Incidente; Detección; Algoritmo; Arbol decisión; Método cálculo; Validación; Gollete estrangulamiento; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-10459B.354000120632520120 514/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0604244 INIST ET : Minnesota's new ramp control strategy: Design overview and preliminary assessment AU : WUPING XIN; MICHALOPOULOS (Panos G.); HOURDAKIS (John); DOUG LAU AF : Department of Civil Engineering, 500 Pillsbury Drive S E./Minneapolis, MN 55455/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); Regional Transportation Management Center, Minnesota Department of Transportation, 1500 West Co. Rd 8-2/Roseville, MN 55113/Etats-Unis (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2004; No. 1867; Pp. 69-79; Bibl. 11 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Freeway ramp control has been successfully implemented in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area since the early 1970s. However, the recent ramp metering controversy highlighted the need for a less restrictive ramp control strategy that maximizes freeway capacity utilization while limiting ramp wait times. As a result, a new multilayer ramp control strategy called stratified ramp control was recently developed and deployed systemwide in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. This strategy determines the metering rates from freeway conditions as well as from real-time ramp demand and ramp queue size, indicating a shift of emphasis away from freeway flow toward the balance between both freeway efficiency and reduced ramp delays. Minnesota's new ramp control strategy is detailed along with a preliminary assessment of its effectiveness. The evaluation is accomplished by comparing the new strategy to its predecessor, ZONE metering, through rigorous microsimulation. The preliminary results suggest that the stratified ramp control strategy is effective in reducing ramp delays and limiting ramp wait times below the prescribed value. However, peak-hour freeway congestion is extended in both time and space as opposed to that with the ZONE metering strategy and reveals a compromised freeway performance in favor of virtually reducing ramp delays. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Autoroute; Minnesota; Comptage trafic; Conception; Contrôle; Stratégie; Zone urbaine; Modèle stratifié; Zone; Evaluation; Essai en place; Résultat; Distribution vitesse; Congrès international FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Freeway; Minnesota; Traffic meter; Design; Check; Strategy; Urban area; Stratified model; Zone; Evaluation; In situ test; Result; Velocity distribution; International conference EG : United States; North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Autopista; Minesota; Contaje tráfico; Diseño; Control; Estrategia; Zona urbana; Modelo estratificado; Zona; Evaluación; Ensayo en sitio; Resultado; Distribución velocidad; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-10459B.354000120632520090 515/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0533256 INIST ET : Comparison of outcomes after aortic valve replacement with a mechanical valve or a bioprosthesis using microsimulation AU : PUVIMANASINGHE (J. P. A.); TAKKENBERG (J. J. M.); EDWARDS (M. B.); EIJKEMANS (M. J. C.); STEYERBERG (E. W.); VAN HERWERDEN (L. A.); TAYLOR (K. M.); GRUNKEMEIER (G. L.); HABBEMA (J. D. F.); BOGERS (A. J. J. C.) AF : Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Erasmus MC/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 6 aut., 10 aut.); Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Imperial College School of Medicine/London/Royaume-Uni (3 aut., 7 aut.); Centre for Clinical Decision Sciences, Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (4 aut., 5 aut., 9 aut.); Providence Health System/Portland, Oregon/Etats-Unis (8 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Heart : (London 1996); ISSN 1355-6037; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2004; Vol. 90; No. 10; Pp. 1172-1178; Bibl. 45 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: Mechanical valves and bioprostheses are widely used for aortic valve replacement. Though previous randomised studies indicate that there is no important difference in outcome after implantation with either type of valve, knowledge of outcomes after aortic valve replacement is incomplete. Objective: To predict age and sex specific outcomes of patients after aortic valve replacement with bileaflet mechanical valves and stented porcine bioprostheses, and to provide evidence based support for the choice of prosthesis. Methods: Meta-analysis of published results of primary aortic valve replacement with bileaflet mechanical prostheses (nine reports, 4274 patients, and 25 726 patient-years) and stented porcine bioprostheses (13 reports, 9007 patients, and 54 151 patient-years) was used to estimate the annual risks of postoperative valve related events and their outcomes. These estimates were entered into a microsimulation model, which was employed to calculate age and sex specific outcomes after aortic valve replacement. Results: Life expectancy (LE) and event-free life expectancy (EFLE) for a 65 year old man after implantation with a mechanical valve or a bioprosthesis were 10.4 and 10.7 years and 7.7 and 8.4 years, respectively. The lifetime risk of at least one valve related event for a mechanical valve was 48%, and for a bioprosthesis, 44%. For LE and EFLE, the age crossover point between the two valve types was 59 and 60 years, respectively. Conclusions: Meta-analysis based microsimulation provides insight into the long term outcome after aortic valve replacement and suggests that the currently recommended age threshold for implanting a bioprosthesis could be lowered further. CC : 002B12 FD : Etude comparative; Pronostic; Evolution; Valvule aortique; Remplacement; Soupape; Bioprothèse ED : Comparative study; Prognosis; Evolution; Aortic valve; Replacement; Valve; Bioprosthesis SD : Estudio comparativo; Pronóstico; Evolución; Válvula aórtica; Reemplazo; Válvula; Bioprótesis LO : INIST-3995.354000120365300210 516/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0527157 INIST ET : Multivariate spatial regression models AU : GAMERMAN (Dani); MOREIRA (Ajax R. B.) AF : Instituto de Maremática, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Caixa Postal 68530/21945-970 Rio de Janeiro, RJ/Brésil (1 aut.); Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada/Brésil (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of multivariate analysis; ISSN 0047-259X; Coden JMVAAI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2004; Vol. 91; No. 2; Pp. 262-281; Bibl. 39 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper describes the inference procedures required to perform Bayesian inference to some multivariate econometric models. These models have a spatial component built into commonly used multivariate models. In particular, the common component models are addressed and extended to accommodate for spatial dependence. Inference procedures are based on a variety of simulation-based schemes designed to obtain samples from the posterior distribution of model parameters. They are also used to provide a basis to forecast new observations. CC : 001A02H02I; 001A02H02J; 001A02H02N2 FD : Analyse multivariable; Modèle régression; Estimation statistique; Estimation Bayes; Modèle économétrique; Plan expérience; Loi a posteriori; Méthode statistique; 62Jxx; 62F15; 62P20; 62K99; 60E05; Régression multivariable ED : Multivariate analysis; Regression model; Statistical estimation; Bayes estimation; Econometric model; Experimental design; Posterior distribution; Statistical method; Multivariate regression SD : Análisis multivariable; Modelo regresión; Estimación estadística; Estimación Bayes; Modelo econométrico; Plan experiencia; Ley a posteriori; Método estadístico LO : INIST-15722.354000122386150080 517/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0521143 INIST ET : Estimation of the option prime: Microsimulation of backward stochastic differential equations AU : ALLENDE (Héctor); ELIAS (Carlos); TORRES (Soledad) AF : Department of Informatics, Federico Santa María Technical University/Valparaíso/Chili (1 aut.); Faculty of Science and Technology, Adolfo Ibañez University/Viña del Mar/Chili (1 aut., 2 aut.); Department of Statistics, University of Valparaíso/Valparaíso/Chili (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : International statistical review; ISSN 0306-7734; Coden ISTRDP; Pays-Bas; Da. 2004; Vol. 72; No. 1; Pp. 107-121; Abs. français; Bibl. 14 ref. LA : Anglais FA : Un modèle statistique mathématique est nécessaire afin de déterminer la prime d'une option et pour créer une stratégie de couverture. Avec de formules dérivées d'équations différentielles stochastiques, les primes des currency options entre le dollar américains et le peso chilien sont obtenus à l'aide d'un tableur. De plus, une simulation du comportement de la prime de l'option est utilisée avec une méthode numérique crée pour d'équations différentielles stochastiques retour en arrière. L'utilisation des statistiques en Finance est fortement importante dans le développement de produits complexes. CC : 001A02H01I; 001A02H02N2 FD : Equation différentielle stochastique rétrograde; Modèle statistique; Simulation; Méthode numérique; Finance; Méthode statistique; 60H35; 60H10; Equation différentielle stochastique; Statistique L; 62P05 ED : Backward stochastic differential equation; Statistical model; Simulation; Numerical method; Finance; Statistical method SD : Ecuación diferencial estocástica hacia atrás; Modelo estadístico; Simulación; Método numérico; Finanzas; Método estadístico LO : INIST-1101.354000120320260080 518/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0468106 INIST ET : Uptake of Onchocerca volvulus (Nematoda: Onchocercidae) by Simulium (Diptera: Simuliidae) is not strongly dependent on the density of skin microfilariae in the human host AU : SOUMBEY-ALLEY (Edoh); BASANEZ (Maria-Gloria); BISSAN (Yeriba); BOATIN (Boakye A.); REMME (Jan H. F.); NAGELKERKE (Nico J. D.); DE VLAS (Sake J.); BORSBOOM (Gerard J. J. M.); HABBEMA (J. Dik F.) AF : World Health Organization, Onchocerciasis Control Program, B.P. 549/Ouagadougou/Burkina Faso (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut., 7 aut., 8 aut., 9 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of medical entomology; ISSN 0022-2585; Coden JMENA6; Etats-Unis; Da. 2004; Vol. 41; No. 1; Pp. 83-94; Bibl. 1 p.1/2 LA : Anglais EA : The relation between the number of microfilariae (mf) ingested by host-seeking vectors of human onchocerciasis and skin mf load is an important component of the population biology of Onchocerca volvulus, with implications for disease control and evaluation of the risk of transmission recrudescence. The microsimulation model ONCHOSIM has been used to assess such risk in the area of the Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP) in West Africa, based on a strongly nonlinear relation between vector mf uptake and human mf skin density previously published. However, observed levels of recrudescence have exceeded predictions, warranting a recalibration of the model. To this end, we present the results of a series of fly-feeding experiments carried out in savanna and forest localities of West Africa. Flies belonging to Simulium damnosum s.s., S. sirbanum, S. soubrense, and S. leonense were fed on mf carriers and dissected to assess the number of ingested mf escaping imprisonment by the peritrophic matrix (the number of exo-peritrophic mf), a predictor of infective larval output. The method of instrumental variables was used to obtain (nearly) unbiased estimates of the parameters of interest, taking into account error in the measurement of skin mf density. This error is often neglected in these types of studies, making it difficult to ascertain the degree of density-dependence truly present in the relation between mf uptake and skin load. We conclude that this relation is weakly (yet significantly) nonlinear in savanna settings but indistinguishable from linearity in forest vectors. Exo-peritrophic mf uptake does not account for most of the density dependence in the transmission dynamics of the parasite as previously thought. The number of exo-mf in forest simuliids is at least five times higher than in the savanna vectors. Parasite abundance in human onchocerciasis is regulated by poorly known mechanisms operating mainly on other stages of the lifecycle. CC : 002A37A FD : Captation; Nematoda; Diptera; Simuliidae; Densité dépendance; Peau; Homme; Hôte; Parasite; Vecteur; Onchocerca volvulus; Simulium damnosum FG : Nemathelminthia; Helmintha; Invertebrata; Insecta; Arthropoda ED : Uptake; Nematoda; Diptera; Simuliidae; Density dependence; Skin; Human; Host; Parasite; Vector; Onchocerca volvulus; Simulium damnosum EG : Nemathelminthia; Helmintha; Invertebrata; Insecta; Arthropoda SD : Captación; Nematoda; Diptera; Simuliidae; Densidad dependencia; Piel; Hombre; Huesped; Parásito; Vector; Onchocerca volvulus; Simulium damnosum LO : INIST-11536.354000113440260130 519/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0438048 BDSP FT : La redistribution intragénérationnelle dans le système de retraite des salariés du privé : une approche par microsimulation AU : WALRAET (E.); VINCENT (A.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : ECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUE; ISSN 0336-1454; France; Da. 2003-12; No. 366; Pp. 31-61; Bibl. 12 ref.; 8 tabl., 8 graph. LA : Français FA : L'impact redistributif du système de retraite français des salariés du privé est analysé dans ce document pour les générations nées dans les années 1950, avant la réforme intervenue en 2003. Les transferts redistributifs sont évalués en se fondant sur la comparaison des taux de rendement interne. La redistribution intragénérationnelle peut s'apprécier selon deux dimensions : une dimension verticale, en fonction du salaire ; une dimension horizontale, essentiellement liée au nombre d'enfants. Afin de neutraliser les transferts induits par le système de retraite entre membres d'un même ménage (surtout de l'homme vers la femme), la redistribution est envisagée au niveau des individus mais aussi des couples. L'analyse est menée à partir de l'enquête Patrimoine 1998, complétée au moyen du modèle de microsimulation dynamique Destinie CC : 002B30A11 FD : Age; Retraite; Sexe; Secteur privé; Personne âgée; Politique; Salaire; Modèle économétrique; Simulation; France FG : Homme; Europe ED : Age; Retirement; Sex; Private sector; Elderly; Policy; Wage; Econometric model; Simulation; France EG : Human; Europe SD : Edad; Jubilación; Sexo; Sector privado; Anciano; Política; Salario; Modelo econométrico; Simulación; Francia LO : BDSP/CREDES-S18, CODBAR 000162, 000163 520/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0433760 INIST ET : Network effects of intelligent speed adaptation systems AU : LIU (Ronghui); TATE (James) AF : Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds/Leeds LS2 9JT/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation; ISSN 0049-4488; Coden TNPRDN; Pays-Bas; Da. 2004; Vol. 31; No. 3; Pp. 297-325; Bibl. 1 p.1/2 LA : Anglais EA : Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA) systems use in-vehicle electronic devices to enable the speed of vehicles to be regulated automatically. They are increasingly appreciated as a flexible method for speed management and control particularly in urban areas. On-road trials using a small numbers of ISA equipped vehicles have been carried out in Sweden, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK. This paper describes the developments made to enhance a traffic microsimulation model in order to represent ISA implemented across a network and the impact of this on the networks. The simulation modelling of the control system is carried out on a real-world urban network, and the impacts on traffic congestion, speed distribution and the environment assessed. The results show that ISA systems are more effective in less congested traffic conditions. Momentary high speeds in traffic are effectively suppressed, resulting in a reduction in speed variation which is likely to have a beneficial impact on safety. Whilst ISA reduces excessive traffic speeds in the network, it does not affect average journey times. In particular, the total vehicle-hours travelling at speeds below 10 km/hr have not changed, indicating that the speed control had not induced more slow-moving queues to the network. A statistically significant, eight percent, reduction in fuel consumption was found with full ISA penetration. These results are in accordance with those from field trials and they provide the basis for cost-benefit analyses on introducing ISA into the vehicle fleet. However, contrary to earlier findings from the Swedish ISA road trials, this study suggested that ISA is likely to have no significant effect on emission of gaseous pollutants CO, NOx and HC. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Gestion trafic; Système intelligent; Régulation vitesse; Vitesse déplacement; Instrument embarqué; Système automatique; Essai en place; Zone urbaine; Espagne; Suède; Pays Bas; Implémentation; Modèle simulation; Scénario; Etude comparative; Ecoulement trafic; Durée trajet; Consommation combustible; Emission polluant; Analyse régression; Régression linéaire; Distribution vitesse FG : Europe ED : Road traffic; Traffic management; Intelligent system; Speed regulation; Speed; On board apparatus; Automatic system; In situ test; Urban area; Spain; Sweden; Netherlands; Implementation; Simulation model; Script; Comparative study; Traffic flow; Travel time; Fuel consumption; Pollutant emission; Regression analysis; Linear regression; Velocity distribution EG : Europe SD : Tráfico carretera; Gestión tráfico; Sistema inteligente; Regulación velocidad; Velocidad desplazamiento; Aparato a bordo; Sistema automático; Ensayo en sitio; Zona urbana; España; Suecia; Holanda; Implementación; Modelo simulación; Argumento; Estudio comparativo; Flujo tráfico; Duración trayecto; Consumo combustible; Emisión contaminante; Análisis regresión; Regresión lineal; Distribución velocidad LO : INIST-15985.354000110276130030 521/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0432182 INIST ET : Cost-effectiveness of stereotactic large-core needle biopsy for nonpalpable breast lesions compared to open-breast biopsy AU : GROENEWOUD (J. H.); PIJNAPPEL (R. M.); VAN DEN AKKER-VAN MARIE (M. E.); BIRNIE (E.); BUIJS-VAN DER WOUDE (T.); MALI (W. P. T. H. M.); DE KONING (H. J.); BUSKENS (E.) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, PO Box 1738/3000 DR Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 7 aut.); Department of Radiology, Martini Ziekenhuis Groningen, PO Box 30033/9700 RM Groningen/Pays-Bas (2 aut.); Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, PO Box 85500/3508 GA Utrecht/Pays-Bas (2 aut., 5 aut., 8 aut.); Department of Radiology, University Medical Center Utrecht, PO Box 85500/3508 GA Utrecht/Pays-Bas (6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : British journal of cancer; ISSN 0007-0920; Coden BJCAAI; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2004; Vol. 90; No. 2; Pp. 383-392; Bibl. 25 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper demonstrates that the introduction of large-core needle biopsy (LCNB) replacing needle-localised breast biopsy (NLBB) for nonpalpable (screen-detected) breast lesions could result in substantial cost savings at the expense of a possible slight increase in breast cancer mortality. The cost-effectiveness of LCNB and NLBB was estimated using a microsimulation model. The sensitivity of LCNB (0.97) and resource use and costs of LCNB and NLBB were derived from a multicentre consecutive cohort study among 973 women who consented in getting LCNB and NLBB, if LCNB was negative. Sensitivity analyses were performed. Replacing NLBB with LCNB would result in approximately six more breast cancer deaths per year (in a target population of 2.1 million women), or in 1000 extra life-years lost from breast cancer (effect over 100 years). The total costs of management of breast cancer (3% discounted) are estimated at £4676 million with NLBB; introducing LCNB would save £13 million. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of continued NLBB vs LCNB would be £12482 per additional life-year gained (3% discounted); incremental costs range from £-21687 (low threshold for breast biopsy) to £74 378 (high sensitivity of LCNB). CC : 002B04 FD : Stéréotaxie; Analyse coût efficacité; Economie santé; Biopsie; Aiguille; Glande mammaire; Radiographie; Lésion; Dépistage; Tumeur maligne; Cancérologie FG : Radiodiagnostic; Exploration ED : Stereotaxia; Cost efficiency analysis; Health economy; Biopsy; Needle; Mammary gland; Radiography; Lesion; Medical screening; Malignant tumor; Cancerology EG : Radiodiagnosis; Exploration SD : Estereotaxia; Análisis costo eficacia; Economía salud; Biopsia; Aguja; Glándula mamaria; Radiografía; Lesión; Descubrimiento; Tumor maligno; Cancerología LO : INIST-6925.354000117195730190 522/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0395188 BDSP FT : Les aides publiques à la garde des jeunes enfants : Une analyse à partir des modèles de microsimulation MYRIADE AU : LEGENDRE (François); LORGNET (Jean-Paul); MAHIEU (Ronan); THIBAULT (Florence) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : RECHERCHES ET PREVISIONS; ISSN 1149-1590; France; Da. 2004-03; No. 75; Pp. 5-20; Bibl. 10 ref.; tabl. LA : Français FA : Les parents d'enfants nés à partir du 1er janvier 2004 peuvent bénéficier d'une nouvelle prestation, la prestation d'accueil du jeune enfant (PAJE), dont la vocation est à la fois de mieux les solvabiliser s'ils optent pour une garde payante et de les soutenir financièrement s'ils réduisent leur activité professionnelle afin de s'occuper eux-mêmes de leurs enfants. Pour mieux rendre compte des effets budgétaires et redistributifs de cette nouvelle prestation, le modèle de microsimulation de la Caisse nationale des allocations familiales - MYRIADE-a été amendé. Il s'agissait de mieux décrire la situation antérieure à la réforme - en matière de modes de garde-afin de simuler plus précisément les effets potentiels de modifications de la réglementation dans ce domaine. En plus de la PAJE, deux réformes alternatives des prestations en vigueur en 2003 sont étudiées dans cet article. En fournissant des éléments comparatifs, leur analyse permet d'apprécier les options retenues dans le cadre de la nouvelle prestation CC : 002B30A07 FD : Aspect économique; Evaluation ED : Economic aspect; Evaluation SD : Aspecto económico; Evaluación LO : BDSP/ORSLR-COLLECTION 523/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0334912 INIST ET : Prospects for elimination of bancroftian filariasis by mass drug treatment in Pondicherry, India: A simulation study AU : STOLK (Wilma A.); SWAMINATHAN (Subramanian); VAN OORTMARSSEN (Gerrit J.); DAS (P. K.); HABBEMA (J. Dik F.) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, University Medical Center Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 3 aut., 5 aut.); Vector Control Research Centre, Indian Council of Medical Research, Indira Nagar, Medical Complex/Pondicherry/Inde (2 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : The Journal of infectious diseases; ISSN 0022-1899; Coden JIDIAQ; Etats-Unis; Da. 2003; Vol. 188; No. 9; Pp. 1371-1381; Bibl. 52 ref. LA : Anglais EA : LYMFASIM, a microsimulation model for transmission and control of lymphatic filariasis, was used to simulate the effects of mass treatment, in order to estimate the number of treatment rounds necessary to achieve elimination. Simulations were performed for a community that represented Pondicherry, India, and that had an average precontrol microfilariae (MF) prevalence of 8.5%. When ivermectin was used, 8 yearly treatment rounds with 65% population coverage gave a 99% probability of elimination. The number of treatment rounds necessary to achieve elimination depended to a large extent on coverage, drug efficacy, and endemicity level. Changing the interval between treatment rounds mainly influenced the duration of control, not the number of treatment rounds necessary to achieve elimination. Results hardly changed with alternative assumptions regarding the type of immune mechanism. The potential impact of mass treatment with a combination of diethylcarbamazine and albendazole is shown under different assumptions regarding its efficacy. Human migration and drug resistance were not considered. Results cannot be directly generalized to areas with different vector or epidemiological characteristics. In conclusion, the prospects for elimination of bancroftian filariasis by mass treatment in Pondicherry seem good, provided that the level of population coverage is sufficiently high. CC : 002A05; 002B05 FD : Traitement; Pondichéry; Simulation; Microbiologie; Infection; Filariose lymphatique FG : Inde; Asie; Nématodose; Helminthiase; Parasitose; Lymphatique pathologie; Appareil circulatoire pathologie ED : Treatment; Pondicherry; Simulation; Microbiology; Infection; Lymphatic filariasis EG : India; Asia; Nematode disease; Helminthiasis; Parasitosis; Lymphatic vessel disease; Cardiovascular disease SD : Tratamiento; Pondichery; Simulación; Microbiología; Infección; Filariasis linfática LO : INIST-2052.354000118783870150 524/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0270966 BDSP FT : Modéliser l'avenir des retraites dans un cadre macroéconomique bouclé : quelques mécanismes de base AU : BLANCHET (D.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : RETRAITE ET SOCIETE; ISSN 1167-4687; France; Da. 2003-10; No. 40; Pp. 130-155; Bibl. dissem.; tabl., graph., ann. LA : Français FA : Dans le cadre des réflexions menées sur les modalités envisageables de rééquilibrage des régimes de retraite du privé, cet article analyse les conséquences de l'introduction d'une dose de capitalisation obligatoire, accompagnée d'un allongement de la durée d'assurance requise pour avoir le taux plein selon le calendrier proposé par Charpin (1999). Les simulations sont effectuées à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation Destinie de l'INSEE. Les effets de cette réforme sur la masse des retraites et des cotisations et, au niveau individuel, sur la distribution des revenus de trois générations (1948-1959,1960-1967,1968-1975) sont successivement analysés. (tiré de l'introduction) CC : 002B30A11 FD : Retraite; Homme; Salaire; Secteur privé; France; Activité professionnelle; Durée; Modèle; Employé; Population active; Activité; Epargne; Compte rendu; Personne âgée; Charges sociales; Financement; Relation intergénération; Femme; Génération; Classification; Revenu individuel; Projection perspective; Hypothèse FG : Europe ED : Retirement; Human; Wage; Private sector; France; Professional activity; Duration; Models; Employee; Labour force; Activity; Saving; Report; Elderly; Social charges; Financing; Intergeneration relation; Woman; Generation; Classification; Personal income; Perspective projection; Hypothesis EG : Europe SD : Jubilación; Hombre; Salario; Sector privado; Francia; Actividad profesional; Duración; Modelo; Empleado; Población activa; Actividad; Ahorro; Informe; Anciano; Cargas sociales; Financiación; Relación intergeneracional; Mujer; Generación; Clasificación; Renta personal; Proyección perspectiva; Hipótesis LO : BDSP/FNG-16536, FNCOLL 525/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0270965 BDSP FT : Retraites du secteur privé : quels effets de l'introduction d'une dose de capitalisation ? AU : BELHAJ (H.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : RETRAITE ET SOCIETE; ISSN 1167-4687; France; Da. 2003-10; No. 40; Pp. 106-125; Bibl. dissem.; tabl., graph., ann. LA : Français FA : Dans le cadre des réflexions menées sur les modalités envisageables de rééquilibrage des régimes de retraite du privé, cet article analyse les conséquences de l'introduction d'une dose de capitalisation obligatoire, accompagnée d'un allongement de la durée d'assurance requise pour avoir le taux plein selon le calendrier proposé par Charpin (1999). Les simulations sont effectuées à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation Destinie de l'INSEE. Les effets de cette réforme sur la masse des retraites et des cotisations et, au niveau individuel, sur la distribution des revenus de trois générations (1948-1959,1960-1967,1968-1975) sont successivement analysés. (tiré de l'introduction) CC : 002B30A11 FD : Retraite; Homme; Salaire; Secteur privé; France; Activité professionnelle; Durée; Modèle; Employé; Population active; Activité; Epargne; Compte rendu; Personne âgée; Charges sociales; Financement; Relation intergénération; Femme; Génération; Classification; Revenu individuel; Projection perspective; Hypothèse FG : Europe ED : Retirement; Human; Wage; Private sector; France; Professional activity; Duration; Models; Employee; Labour force; Activity; Saving; Report; Elderly; Social charges; Financing; Intergeneration relation; Woman; Generation; Classification; Personal income; Perspective projection; Hypothesis EG : Europe SD : Jubilación; Hombre; Salario; Sector privado; Francia; Actividad profesional; Duración; Modelo; Empleado; Población activa; Actividad; Ahorro; Informe; Anciano; Cargas sociales; Financiación; Relación intergeneracional; Mujer; Generación; Clasificación; Renta personal; Proyección perspectiva; Hipótesis LO : BDSP/FNG-16535, FNCOLL 526/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0270964 BDSP FT : Retraites des salariés du secteur privé en France : un modèle de microsimulation AU : PENNEC (S.); PRIVAT (A.G.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : RETRAITE ET SOCIETE; ISSN 1167-4687; France; Da. 2003-10; No. 40; Pp. 72-101; Bibl. dissem.; tabl., graph. LA : Français FA : Cet article présente la première version du modèle de microsimulation de la Caisse nationale d'assurance vieillesse (Cnav). Ce modèle projette les retraites personnelles de base des salariés du secteur privé à l'horizon 2030. L'article se compose de quatre parties. Après avoir brièvement décrit les principes de la méthode de la microsimulation, en rappelant ses principaux avantages, l'article présente, dans une deuxième partie, la principale source de données sur laquelle repose la modèle. En effet, ce modèle s'appuie sur le fichier des assurés (cotisants et retraités) au régime général d'assurance vieillesse de la sécurité sociale qui est une source d'information très riche sur les carrières des assurés de la Cnav. Ensuite, les principaux éléments du modèle et son fonctionnement sont décrits dans la troisième partie. Dans la dernière partie, sont présentés des premiers résultats CC : 002B30A11 FD : Retraite; Homme; Salaire; Secteur privé; France; Activité professionnelle; Durée; Modèle; Employé; Population; Sénescence; Coût; Financement; Population active; Historique; Banque donnée; Mort; Mortalité; Activité; Fécondité; Femme; Génération; Age; Méthodologie; Résultat FG : Europe ED : Retirement; Human; Wage; Private sector; France; Professional activity; Duration; Models; Employee; Population; Senescence; Costs; Financing; Labour force; Case history; Databank; Death; Mortality; Activity; Fecundity; Woman; Generation; Age; Methodology; Result EG : Europe SD : Jubilación; Hombre; Salario; Sector privado; Francia; Actividad profesional; Duración; Modelo; Empleado; Población; Senescencia; Coste; Financiación; Población activa; Estudio histórico; Banco dato; Muerte; Mortalidad; Actividad; Fecundidad; Mujer; Generación; Edad; Metodología; Resultado LO : BDSP/FNG-16534, FNCOLL 527/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0270961 BDSP FT : Les retraites au futur : simulations et projections AU : LEGROS (F.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : RETRAITE ET SOCIETE; ISSN 1167-4687; France; Da. 2003-10; No. 40; Pp. 4-155; Bibl. dissem.; tabl., graph. LA : Français FA : Ce fascicule tente d'éclaircir des méthodes de modélisation des régimes de retraite et d'en montrer les enseignements comme les limites à travers des exemples de microsimulation. Ces modèles sont appliqués à différents domaines : étude de l'impact des aléas de carrière sur les retraites (inactivité, chômage, travail à temps partiel et préretraite) ; typologie des carrières des retraités de droit propre du régime général et établissement de profils-types ; retraites des salariés du secteur privé en France ; les effets de l'introduction d'une dose de capitalisation sur les retraites du secteur privé ; quelques mécanismes de base pour la modélisation de l'avenir des retraites dans un cadre macroéconomique CC : 002B30A11 FD : Retraite; Population; Sénescence; Activité professionnelle; Durée; Population active; Chomage; Emploi temps partiel; Homme; Salaire; Secteur privé; Femme; Epargne; Macroéconomie; Classe âge; France; Projection perspective; Modèle; Méthodologie; Classification; Hypothèse FG : Europe ED : Retirement; Population; Senescence; Professional activity; Duration; Labour force; Unemployment; Part time job; Human; Wage; Private sector; Woman; Saving; Macroeconomics; Age distribution; France; Perspective projection; Models; Methodology; Classification; Hypothesis EG : Europe SD : Jubilación; Población; Senescencia; Actividad profesional; Duración; Población activa; Desempleo; Trabajo tiempo parcial; Hombre; Salario; Sector privado; Mujer; Ahorro; Macroeconomía; Clase edad; Francia; Proyección perspectiva; Modelo; Metodología; Clasificación; Hipótesis LO : BDSP/FNG-16531, FNCOLL 528/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0202790 INIST ET : Simplex-based calibration of traffic microsimulation models with intelligent transportation systems data AU : KIM (Kyu-Ok); RILETT (L. R.) AF : Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University, 3136 TAMU/College Station, TX 77843-3136/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2003; No. 1855; Pp. 80-89; Bibl. 19 ref. LA : Anglais EA : In recent years, microsimulation has become increasingly important in transportation system modeling. A potential issue is whether these models adequately represent reality and whether enough data exist with which to calibrate these models. There has been rapid deployment of intelligent transportation system (ITS) technologies in most urban areas of North America in the last 10 years. While ITSs are developed primarily for real-time traffic operations, the data are typically archived and available for traffic microsimulation calibration. A methodology, based on the sequential simplex algorithm, that uses ITS data to calibrate microsimulation models is presented. The test bed is a 23-km section of Interstate 10 in Houston, Texas. Two microsimulation models, CORSIM and TRANSIMS, were calibrated for two different demand matrices and three periods (morning peak, evening peak, and off-peak). It was found for the morning peak that the simplex algorithm had better results then either the default values or a simple, manual calibration. As the level of congestion decreased, the effectiveness of the simplex approach also decreased, as compared with standard techniques. CC : 001D15B FD : Système intelligent; Transports; Modèle simulation; Etalonnage; Algorithme; Ecoulement trafic; Zone urbaine; Texas; Implémentation; Résultat; Etude comparative; Modèle CORSIM; Modèle TRANSIMS FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Intelligent system; Transportation; Simulation model; Calibration; Algorithm; Traffic flow; Urban area; Texas; Implementation; Result; Comparative study EG : United States; North America; America SD : Sistema inteligente; Transportes; Modelo simulación; Contraste; Algoritmo; Flujo tráfico; Zona urbana; Texas; Implementación; Resultado; Estudio comparativo LO : INIST-10459B.354000116537150100 529/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0194104 INIST ET : Estimating the benefits of efficient water pricing in France AU : GARCIA (Serge); REYNAUD (Arnaud) AF : GEA-ENGREF/Montpellier/France (1 aut.); LEERNA-INRA, Université de Toulouse I, 21 allée de Brienne/31000 Toulouse/France (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Resource and energy economics; ISSN 0928-7655; Pays-Bas; Da. 2004; Vol. 26; No. 1; Pp. 1-25; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the pricing of French water utilities. An econometric model describing both water supply and demand is specified and estimated on utilities located in the Bordeaux area. Based on the estimated technology and demand parameters, we simulate marginal-cost pricing (first-best pricing) and social surplus variations. We find a significant difference between observed marginal prices and marginal costs. We show that the optimal pricing scheme is characterized, first by higher marginal prices and second by a lower fixed charge. However, moving towards efficient prices does not result in important direct welfare effects. CC : 001D14J03; 001D14B; 295 FD : Approvisionnement eau; Réseau adduction eau; Fixation prix; France; Analyse avantage coût; Modèle économétrique; Demande; Simulation numérique; Bien être économique; Echelon municipal; Inefficacité; Fonction coût; Analyse coût efficacité; Statistique descriptive FG : Europe ED : Water supply; Water supply system network; Pricing; France; Cost benefit analysis; Econometric model; Demand; Numerical simulation; Welfare; Municipal scope; Inefficiency; Cost function; Cost efficiency analysis; Descriptive statistics EG : Europe SD : Alimentación agua; Red aducción agua; Fijación precios; Francia; Análisis coste beneficio; Modelo econométrico; Petición; Simulación numérica; Bienestar económico; Escalón municipal; Ineficacia; Función coste; Análisis costo eficacia; Estadística descriptiva LO : INIST-17835.354000116958490010 530/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0141007 INIST FT : (Numéro spécial consacré aux innovations dans l'ingénierie des transports) ET : Assessment of streetcar transit priority options using microsimulation modelling : Special Issue on Inovations in Trasportation Engineering AU : SHALABY (Amer); ABDULHAI (Baher); JINWOO LEE AF : Intelligent Transportation Systems Centre and Testbed, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George, Street/Toronto, ON M5S 1A4/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Canadian journal of civil engineering : (Print); ISSN 0315-1468; Coden CJCEB8; Canada; Da. 2003; Vol. 30; No. 6; Pp. 1000-1009; Abs. français; Bibl. 3 ref. LA : Anglais FA : L'orientation d'une vision du transport public de Toronto, récemment publiée, porte principalement sur la réduction de la dépendance vis à vis l'automobile par l'utilisation d'une variété de stratégies interdépendantes, incluant l'application étendue de politiques de priorité de passage afin d'améliorer la compétitivité du service de transport public. Cet article quantifie les impacts de plusieurs schémas de priorité de passage en utilisant comme étude de cas le tramway le long de la rue King, au coeur de Toronto. Quatre scénarios ont été modélisés dans le cadre d'une microsimulation. Ils comprennent le statu quo (impliquant un signal de priorité de passage sans condition, déjà en opération), arrêter les signaux de priorité de passage existants, interdire tous les virages à gauche et enfin interdire toute circulation sur la rue King. Afin de quantifier les impacts de chacun de ces scénarios, un ensemble de mesures communes d'efficacité a été utilisé; celui-ci comprenait le temps et la vitesse des véhicules de transport public, l'intervalle efficace, la fréquence du service aux usagers et le nombre de personnes, le regroupement (bunching), les implications de la taille de la flotte, ainsi que les vitesses moyennes globales de la circulation et des véhicules du transport public. Les résultats montrent les mérites relatifs des quatre scénarios et recommande deux stratégies pour améliorer le service de tramway le long du parcours King. La première recommandation est d'interdire tous les virages à gauche le long du parcours alors que la seconde, qu'il faut reconnaître plus audacieuse, est de transformer possiblement cette artère en une rue réservée uniquement aux piétons et aux tramways. CC : 001D15B; 001D15D FD : Transport public; Priorité; Tramway; Ontario; Régulation trafic; Feu signalisation; Intersection; Simulation numérique; Modèle microscopique; Scénario; Etalonnage; Demande transport; Dynamique véhicule; Evaluation performance; Toronto FG : Canada; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Public transportation; Priority; Tramway; Ontario; Traffic control; Traffic lights; Intersection; Numerical simulation; Microscopic model; Script; Calibration; Transport demand; Vehicle dynamics; Performance evaluation EG : Canada; North America; America SD : Transporte público; Prioridad; Tranvía; Ontario; Regulación tráfico; Semáforo; Intersección; Simulación numérica; Modelo microscópico; Argumento; Contraste; Demanda transporte; Dinámica vehículo; Evaluación prestación LO : INIST-16748.354000119162600050 531/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0118382 INIST ET : Prototype model of household activity-travel scheduling AU : MILLER (Eric J.); ROORDA (Matthew J.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, Joint Program in Transportation, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street/Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2003; No. 1831; Pp. 114-121; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The Toronto Area Scheduling Model for Household Agents (TASHA), a new prototype activity scheduling microsimulation model, generates activity schedules and travel patterns for a 24-h typical weekday for all persons in a household. The prototype model is based solely on conventional trip diary data and therefore is applicable in many urban areas where activity data may not be available. The model makes use of the concept of the project, a &dquot;container&dquot; of activities with a common goal, to organize activity episodes into the schedules of persons in a household. A heuristic, or rule-based, method is used to organize activities into projects and then to form schedules for interacting household members. The TASHA model is considered to be a successful first attempt to operationalize a generalized conceptual model of household decision making, with reasonable correspondence between model and observed trip rates and chain characteristics. CC : 001D15B FD : Transport urbain; Ordonnancement; Activité; Simulation numérique; Prototype; Ontario; Modèle microscopique; Ménage; Vérification; Toronto FG : Canada; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Urban transportation; Scheduling; Activity; Numerical simulation; Prototype; Ontario; Microscopic model; Household; Verification EG : Canada; North America; America SD : Transporte urbano; Reglamento; Actividad; Simulación numérica; Prototipo; Ontario; Modelo microscópico; Familia; Verificación LO : INIST-10459B.354000119083170130 532/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0118001 INIST ET : Dynamic modeling of household automobile transactions AU : MOHAMMADIAN (Abolfazl); MILLER (Eric J.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, California State University, Sacramento, 6000 J Street/Sacramento, CA 95819-6029/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street/Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4/Canada (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2003; No. 1831; Pp. 98-105; Bibl. 24 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Automobiles play a pivotal role in daily life, which makes them a subject of interest in many academic fields. Transportation planners are interested in knowing how many and what types of automobiles are owned by households, how people adjust their fleet, and how they use their vehicles. The primary objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive dynamic model of household automobile transactions at a disaggregate level to be used in a dynamic microsimulation modeling framework that can provide a direct forecast of consumer demand for personal-use vehicles. A market-based decision-making process and a transaction approach were applied for this project because of their consistency with the actual processes followed by decision makers. In the proposed framework, each year a decision maker faces four choices: add a new vehicle to the fleet, dispose of one vehicle, trade one of the vehicles in the fleet, or do nothing. A mixed (random parameters) logit model was used to investigate the effects of heterogeneity in the dynamic transaction model and distinguish between heterogeneity- and state-dependence-based explanations for the observed persistence in choice behavior. In this study, the application of dynamic variables representing the occurrence of changes in household state and their impacts on the observed behavior were also investigated. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Transport routier; Economie transport; Simulation numérique; Modèle dynamique; Ménage; Flotte; Acquisition; Echange commercial; Prise décision; Automobile; Modèle microscopique; Arbre décision; Modèle logit; Estimation paramètre; Véhicule neuf ED : Road transportation; Economy of transports; Numerical simulation; Dynamic model; Household; Fleet; Acquisition; Trade; Decision making; Motor car; Microscopic model; Decision tree; Logit model; Parameter estimation; New vehicle SD : Transporte por carretera; Economía transporte; Simulación numérica; Modelo dinámico; Familia; Adquisición; Intercambio comercial; Toma decision; Automóvil; Modelo microscópico; Arbol decisión; Modelo logit; Estimación parámetro; Vehìculo nuevo LO : INIST-10459B.354000119083170110 533/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0117425 INIST ET : Systematic investigation of variability due to random simulation error in an activity-based microsimulation forecasting model AU : CASTIGLIONE (Joe); FREEDMAN (Joel); BRADLEY (Mark) AF : San Francisco County Transportation Authority, 100 Van Ness Avenue, 25th Floor/San Francisco, CA 94102/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Systems Analysis Group, PBConsult, 400 Southwest Sixth Avenue, Suite 802/Portland, OR 97204/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Mark Bradley Research & Consulting, 129 Natoma Avenue, Apartment C/Santa Barbara, CA 93101/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2003; No. 1831; Pp. 76-88; Bibl. 4 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A key difference between stochastic microsimulation models and more traditional forms of travel demand forecasting models is that micro-simulation-based forecasts change each time the sequence of random numbers used to simulate choices is varied. To address practitioners' concerns about this variation, a common approach is to run the microsimulation model several times and average the results. The question then becomes: What is the minimum number of runs required to reach a true average state for a given set of model results? This issue was investigated by means of a systematic experiment with the San Francisco model, a microsimulation model system used in actual planning applications since 2000. The system contains models of vehicle availability, day pattern choice, tour time-of-day choice, destination choice, and mode choice. To investigate the variability of the forecasts of this system due to random simulation error, the model system was run 100 times, each time changing only the sequence of random numbers used to simulate individual choices from the logit model probabilities. The extent of random variability in the model results is reported as a function of two factors: (a) the type of model (vehicle availability, tour generation, destination choice, or mode choice) ; and (b) the level of geographic detail-transit at the analysis zone level, neighborhood level, or countywide level. For each combination of these factors, it is shown graphically how quickly the mean values of key output variables converge toward a stable value as the number of simulation runs increases. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Simulation numérique; Modèle stochastique; Modèle microscopique; Activité; Erreur calcul; Itinéraire; Modèle origine destination; Critère décision; Choix modal; Statistique descriptive; Quartier voisinage; San Francisco ED : Transportation; Numerical simulation; Stochastic model; Microscopic model; Activity; Computation error; Route; Origin destination model; Decision criterion; Modal choice; Descriptive statistics; Neighbourhood SD : Transportes; Simulación numérica; Modelo estocástico; Modelo microscópico; Actividad; Error cálculo; Itinerario; Modelo origen destinación; Criterio decisión; Elección modal; Estadística descriptiva; Barrio vecindad LO : INIST-10459B.354000119083170090 534/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0115648 INIST ET : Continuous time representation and modeling framework for analysis of nonworker activity-travel patterns: Tour and episode attributes AU : MISRA (Rajul); BHAT (Chandra R.); SRINIVASAN (Sivaramakrishnan) AF : United Technologies Research Center, 411 Silver Lane, MS 129-85/East Hartford, CT 06108/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); University of Texas at Austin, Department of Civil Engineering, 1 University Station C1761/Austin, TX 78712-0278/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2003; No. 1831; Pp. 11-20; Bibl. 17 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A set of four econometric models is presented to examine the tour and episode-related attributes (specifically, mode choice, activity duration, travel times, and location choice) of the activity-travel patterns of nonworkers, as a sequel to an earlier work by Bhat and Misra (2001), which presented a comprehensive continuous-time framework for representation and analysis of the activity-travel choices of nonworkers. Detailed descriptions of the first two components of the modeling framework related to the number and sequence of activity episodes are also presented. The proposed models using activity-travel data from the 1990 San Francisco Bay Area travel diary survey are estimated. CC : 001D15B; 001D15A FD : Transport voyageur; Activité; Simulation numérique; Analyse temporelle; Itinéraire; Analyse comportementale; Modèle économétrique; Durée trajet; Formule mathématique; Choix modal; Localisation ED : Passenger transportation; Activity; Numerical simulation; Time analysis; Route; Behavioral analysis; Econometric model; Travel time; Mathematical formula; Modal choice; Localization SD : Transporte pasajero; Actividad; Simulación numérica; Análisis temporal; Itinerario; Análisis conductual; Modelo econométrico; Duración trayecto; Fórmula matemática; Elección modal; Localización LO : INIST-10459B.354000119083170020 535/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0111447 INIST ET : Data challenges in development of a regional assignment: Simulation model to evaluate transit signal priority in Chicago AU : CHANG (Elaine); ZILIASKOPOULOS (Athanasios) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, Northwestern University, 2145 Sheridan Road/Evanston, IL 60208-3109/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2003; No. 1841; Pp. 12-22; Bibl. 15 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Recent years have seen major advances in the field of simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment (DTA), resulting in the development of DTA software packages capable of simulating real-world networks. However, simulation of such networks requires not only sophisticated algorithms and software, but also large and detailed data sets. Although algorithmic and software-related issues in large-scale DTA development have received considerable research attention, there is little reported experience with the data-related challenges in real-world applications of large-scale simulation models. There were challenges in using a large-scale simulation-assignment model for evaluation of transit signal priority (TSP) in the Chicago, Illinois, region. Relevant impacts of TSP are described, to provide a framework for comparing simulation approaches and data sets. The practice of using microsimulation models to evaluate TSP impacts on short corridors is compared with that of using regional assignment-simulation approaches, with an emphasis on TSP impacts that can be captured and observed with each one of the approaches. The data sets used for the regional Chicago TSP study are then described, along with assumptions made to adapt each data set to the task of regional time-dependent simulation. CC : 001D15B FD : Transport public; Transport régional; Affectation trafic; Simulation numérique; Signalisation routière; Modèle dynamique; Outil logiciel; Implémentation; Traitement donnée; Illinois; Réseau transport; Chicago FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Public transportation; Regional transportation; Traffic assignment; Numerical simulation; Road signalling; Dynamic model; Software tool; Implementation; Data processing; Illinois; Transportation network EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transporte público; Transporte regional; Afectación tráfico; Simulación numérica; Señalización tráfico; Modelo dinámico; Herramienta software; Implementación; Tratamiento datos; Ilinois; Red transporte LO : INIST-10459B.354000119046390020 536/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0111029 INIST ET : Induced travel and emissions from traffic flow improvement projects AU : STATHOPOULOS (Fotis G.); NOLAND (Robert B.) AF : Psaron 68 str. Halandri, 15232 Athens/Grèce (1 aut.); Centre for Transport Studies, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine/London SW7 2BU/Royaume-Uni (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2003; No. 1842; Pp. 57-63; Bibl. 23 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Two scenarios for improving traffic flow are simulated and analyzed using the VISSIM microsimulation model and the Comprehensive Modal Emissions Model. Short-run and long-run emissions of CO, HC, NOx, and CO2 and fuel consumption are estimated. In the short run, with traffic volumes held constant, results demonstrate that the smoothing of traffic flow will result in reduced emissions. Long-run emissions are simulated by synthetically generating new trips into the simulated networks to represent potential induced travel. This is done until a &dquot;break-even&dquot; level of emissions for each pollutant and fuel consumption is reached that is equivalent to the base level before the traffic flow improvement was added. By also calculating short-run changes in travel time from the improvement, the travel time elasticity equivalents for each pollutant are calculated. These values are compared with travel time elasticities in the literature to evaluate whether long-run emissions benefits are likely to endure. Simulations are conducted using different assumptions of vehicle soak time to simulate cold-start and hot-stabilized operating modes. Results indicate that, in most cases, long-run emissions reductions are unlikely to be achieved under the two scenarios evaluated. CC : 001D15C; 001D16C04C FD : Transport routier; Emission polluant; Ecoulement trafic; Consommation combustible; Simulation numérique; Scénario; Modèle microscopique; Durée trajet; Elasticité; VISSIM ED : Road transportation; Pollutant emission; Traffic flow; Fuel consumption; Numerical simulation; Script; Microscopic model; Travel time; Elasticity SD : Transporte por carretera; Emisión contaminante; Flujo tráfico; Consumo combustible; Simulación numérica; Argumento; Modelo microscópico; Duración trayecto; Elasticidad LO : INIST-10459B.354000119045710070 537/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0094665 INIST ET : Microsimulating urban systems AU : MILLER (Eric J.); HUNT (John Douglas); ABRAHAM (John E.); SALVINI (Paul A.); BENENSON (Itzhak); TORRENS (Paul M.) AF : Joint Program in Transportation, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street/Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4/Canada (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW/Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4/Canada (2 aut., 3 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street/Toronto, Ontario M5S IA4/Canada (4 aut.); University of Tel Aviv, Department of Geography and Human Environment and Environment Simulation Laboratory/Tel Aviv/Israël (1 aut.); University of Utah, Department of Geography, 260 S. Campus Centre Dr., Room 270/Salt Lake City, UT 84112-9155/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Computers, environment and urban systems; ISSN 0198-9715; Coden CEUSD5; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2004; Vol. 28; No. 1-2; Pp. 9-44; Bibl. 4 p. LA : Anglais EA : This paper presents a status report concerning on-going research and development work by a team of Canadian researchers to develop a microsimulation, agent-based, integrated model of urban land use and transportation. It describes in some detail the overall design and current status of the ILUTE (Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment) modelling system under development. The overall purpose of ILUTE is to simulate the evolution of an entire urban region over an extended period of time. Such a model is intended to replace conventional, aggregate, static models for the analysis of a broad range of transportation, housing and other urban policies. Agents being simulated in the model include individuals, households and establishments. The model operates on a &dquot;100% sample&dquot; (i.e., the entire population) of agents which, in the base case, are synthesized from more aggregate data such as census tables and which are then evolved over time by the model. A range of modelling methods are employed within the modelling system to represent individual agents' behaviours, including simple state transition models, random utility choice models, rule-based &dquot;computational process&dquot; models, and hybrids of these approaches. A major emphasis within ILUTE is the development of microsimulation models of market demand-supply interactions, particularly within the residential and commercial real estate markets. In addition, travel demand is modelled explicitly as the outcome of a combination of household and individual decisions concerning the participation in out-of-home activities over the course of a day. Spatial entities in the model include buildings, residential dwelling units and commercial floorspace, as well as aggregate &dquot;spatial containers&dquot; such as traffic zones, census tracts or grid cells. CC : 001D14A06; 001D14C03; 001D15A; 295 FD : Urbanisme; Occupation sol; Simulation numérique; Modèle microscopique; Agent; Développement urbain; Transports; Choix site; Localisation; Activité; Analyse comportementale; Situation emploi; Modèle désagrégé; Analyse spatiale; Analyse temporelle; ILUTE; Grand ensemble ED : Town planning; Land use; Numerical simulation; Microscopic model; Agent; Urban development; Transportation; Site selection; Localization; Activity; Behavioral analysis; Employment situation; Disaggregate demand model; Spatial analysis; Time analysis; Large housing estate SD : Urbanismo; Ocupación terreno; Simulación numérica; Modelo microscópico; Agente; Desarrollo urbano; Transportes; Elección sitio; Localización; Actividad; Análisis conductual; Situación laboral; Modelo desagregado; Análisis espacial; Análisis temporal; Gran centro de vivienda LO : INIST-20192.354000115858830010 538/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0049814 INIST ET : Health, life expectancy, and health care spending among the elderly AU : LUBITZ (James); LIMING CAI; KRAMAROW (Ellen); LENTZNER (Harold) AF : Office of Analysis, Epidemiology, and Health Promotion, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/Hyattsville, Md/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : The New England journal of medicine; ISSN 0028-4793; Coden NEJMAG; Etats-Unis; Da. 2003; Vol. 349; No. 11; Pp. 1048-1055; Bibl. 33 ref. LA : Anglais EA : BACKGROUND Life expectancy among the elderly has been improving for many decades, and there is evidence that health among the elderly is also improving. We estimated the relation of health status at 70 years of age to life expectancy and to cumulative health care expenditures from the age of 70 until death. METHODS Using the 1992-1998 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, we classified persons' health according to functional status and whether or not they were institutionalized and according to self-reported health. We used multistate life-table methods and microsimulation to estimate life expectancy for persons in various states of health. We linked annual health care expenditures with transitions between health states. RESULTS Elderly persons in better health had a longer life expectancy than those in poorer health but had similar cumulative health care expenditures until death. A person with no functional limitation at 70 years of age had a life expectancy of 14.3 years and expected cumulative health care expenditures of about $136,000 (in 1998 dollars); a person with a limitation in at least one activity of daily living had a life expectancy of 11.6 years and expected cumulative expenditures of about $145,000. Expenditures varied little according to self-reported health at the age of 70. Persons who were institutionalized at the age of 70 had cumulative expenditures that were much higher than those for persons who were not institutionalized. CONCLUSIONS The expected cumulative health expenditures for healthier elderly persons, despite their greater longevity, were similar to those for less healthy persons. Health-promotion efforts aimed at persons under 65 years of age may improve the health and longevity of the elderly without increasing health expenditures. CC : 002B30A01B FD : Espérance vie; Qualité vie; Etats Unis; Epidémiologie; Santé publique; Personne âgée FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique; Homme ED : Life expectancy; Quality of life; United States; Epidemiology; Public health; Elderly EG : North America; America; Human SD : Esperanza de vida; Calidad vida; Estados Unidos; Epidemiología; Salud pública; Anciano LO : INIST-6013.354000112842140070 539/793 NO : PASCAL 04-0042452 INIST ET : Using micro-simulation modelling to appraise a major transport scheme AU : TENEKECI (Goktug); FRY (Graham) AF : Mott MacDonald/Inconnu (1 aut.); Walsall MBC/Inconnu (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Traffic engineering & control; ISSN 0041-0683; Coden TENCA4; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2003; Vol. 44; No. 9; Pp. 337-341; Bibl. 4 ref. LA : Anglais EA : In July 2002 Walsall Metropolitan Borough Council produced an Annex E submission to the Department for Transport for funding of a major transport: scheme, the Walsall Town Centre Transport Package (TCTP). A VISSIM microsimulation model was developed to assess the performance of the existing network and to test the potential impact of the proposed scheme in the local network context. The application of VISSIM for a major local transport scheme produced the opportunity to assess the implementation of bus gates within the town centre, use of Vehicle Actuated Programming for signal controlled junctions and to assess impacts of pedestrian crossings and accessibility, which conventional packages would not detail at a micro level. The assessment of results led to the refinement of the transport elements at micro level and at macro travel an evaluation of economic, environmental, safety and accessibility assessment indices for NATA assessment. CC : 001D15B; 001D15C; 001D14O01; 295 FD : Politique transport; Trafic routier urbain; Royaume Uni; Modélisation; Simulation numérique; Evaluation performance; Réseau routier; Boulevard périphérique; Demande transport; Gestion trafic; Aspect économique; Accessibilité; Sécurité trafic; Evaluation projet; Transport public; Signalisation commandée par véhicule FG : Europe ED : Transportation policy; Urban road traffic; United Kingdom; Modeling; Numerical simulation; Performance evaluation; Road network; Ring road; Transport demand; Traffic management; Economic aspect; Accessibility; Traffic safety; Project evaluation; Public transportation; Vehicle actuated signal EG : Europe SD : Política transporte; Tráfico vial urbano; Reino Unido; Modelización; Simulación numérica; Evaluación prestación; Red carretera; Camino periférico; Demanda transporte; Gestión tráfico; Aspecto económico; Accesibilidad; Seguridad tráfico; Evaluación proyecto; Transporte público LO : INIST-13729.354000114808040050 540/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-04-15179 INIST FT : Les aides aux familles ayant de jeunes enfants : bilan de l'existant et première évaluation des réformes décidées en 2003 avec la Prestation d'accueil du jeune enfant (Paje) ET : (Welfare to families with young children : balance and first assessment of 2003 reforms with the example of Young children allowances) AU : CAUSSAT (Laurent); LE MINEZ (Sylvie); PUCCI (Muriel); CAUSSAT (Laurent) AF : Ministère des Affaires sociales, du travail et de la solidarité/France; Ministère de la Santé, de la famille et des personnes handicapées/France; DREES/France; Direction de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiques/Paris/France (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Dossiers solidarité et santé; ISSN 1296-2120; France; Da. 2003; No. 3; Pp. 67-92; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Français FA : Ce chapitre présente un bilan redistributif détaillé des aides à la petite enfance telles qu'elles opéraient avant leur réforme en 2004, puis une première évaluation prospective de la Prestation d'accueil du jeune enfant (Paje), décidée lors de la dernière Conférence de la famille. Les exploitations s'appuient sur le modèle de microsimulation Ines, enrichi à cette occasion de l'imputation des aides à la garde d'enfants. Malgré un faible ciblage sur les bas revenus, les aides à la petite enfance, très généreuses relativement aux autres aides à la famille, contribuent fortement à réduire les inégalités de niveau de vie parmi les familles ayant à charge des enfants âgés de moins de trois ans. La situation est cependant contrastée selon les aides. Avant réforme, le recours aux différents modes de garde est nettement différencié selon le niveau de ressources des parents. Les efforts financiers consentis à l'occasion de la mise en place de la Paje en 2004 conduisent à diminuer sensiblement le coût des modes de garde, et plus généralement, à accroître le nombre de familles bénéficiaires et la générosité des aides à la petite enfance. La création du Complément mode de garde a pour objectif d'ouvrir l'accès aux modes de garde individuels à un plus grand nombre de familles et on peut penser que des familles aux revenus modestes seront concernées par ce volet de la réforme. Cependant, sous l'hypothèse que les comportements en matière d'activité et de recours aux modes de garde demeurent les mêmes, la réforme apparaît favoriser les revenus moyens et élevés, et au total n'améliore pas le bilan redistributif des aides à la petite enfance CC : 52164; 521 FD : France; Politique sociale; Prestation familiale; Enfant; Redistribution des revenus; Evaluation; Modèle statistique; Simulation ED : France; Social Policy; Family benefit; Child; Income Redistribution; Evaluation; Statistical Model; Simulation LO : INIST-26465.354000116211670040 541/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-04-15173 INIST FT : Analyse des coûts budgétaires, des effets redistributifs et incitatifs des politiques sociales et fiscales affectant le revenu disponible des ménages : L'apport des modèles de microsimulation ET : (Analysis of budgetary costs, of redistributive and incentive effects of social and fiscal policies on households incomes : the contribution of microsimulation model) AU : CHAMBAZ (Christine); LE MINEZ (Sylvie); CAUSSAT (Laurent) AF : Ministère des Affaires sociales, du travail et de la solidarité/France; Ministère de la Santé, de la famille et des personnes handicapées/France; DREES/France; Direction de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiques/Paris/France (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Dossiers solidarité et santé; ISSN 1296-2120; France; Da. 2003; No. 3; Pp. 9-14; Bibl. 3 p.1/2 LA : Français FA : Les modèles de microsimulation sont d'un usage de plus en plus répandu dans les administrations publiques. Ils permettent des évaluations ex ante (ou a priori) des politiques sociales et fiscales affectant le revenu des ménages et sont particulièrement sollicités lorsqu'il s'agit de mettre en oeuvre des réformes de ces politiques. Leur champ d'application est large, s'étendant de l'analyse des coûts budgétaires des politiques, à celle de leurs effets redistributifs et de leurs effets incitatifs. Le système socio-fiscal opère en effet une redistribution des revenus entre les ménages, dont il s'agit d'apprécier les mécanismes et l'ampleur, et le modifier peut entraîner des changements de comportements des individus en matière d'offre de travail, de fécondité, de consommation etc. Ce chapitre présente les différentes options qui peuvent être envisagées lors de l'élaboration d'un modèle de microsimulation, s'appuyant sur des données individuelles représentatives : modèle statique ou dynamique, avec ou sans modélisation des comportements des agents en réaction aux modifications des législations, avec ou sans bouclage macroéconomique. Les usages qui en sont faits, notamment au sein des administrations, sont détaillés, l'accent étant mis sur le caractère prospectif et l'horizon des évaluations. CC : 52164; 52146A; 5218; 521 FD : Politique fiscale; Politique sociale; Redistribution des revenus; Evaluation; Coût; Simulation; Modèle statistique; Comptabilité; France; Incitation ED : Fiscal Policy; Social Policy; Income Redistribution; Evaluation; Cost; Simulation; Statistical Model; Accounting; France LO : INIST-26465.354000116211670010 542/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-04-15171 INIST FT : L'impact redistributif des réformes socio-fiscales récentes sur les bas revenus : l'exemple de la Prime pour l'emploi ET : (The redistributive impact of recent social-fiscal reforms on low incomes : the example of employment bonus) AU : COURTIOUX (Pierre); LAPINTE (Aude); CAUSSAT (Laurent) AF : Ministère des Affaires sociales, du travail et de la solidarité/France; Ministère de la Santé, de la famille et des personnes handicapées/France; DREES/France; Direction de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiques/Paris/France (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Dossiers solidarité et santé; ISSN 1296-2120; France; Da. 2003; No. 3; Pp. 45-66; Bibl. 9 ref. LA : Français FA : Ce chapitre analyse l'impact redistributif de la Prime pour l'emploi, au regard d'autres dispositifs (les aides au logement et la taxe d'habitation) qui ont connu des réformes récentes. Par le jeu des différentes conditions d'éligibilité (condition d'activité individuelle, condition de revenu du foyer, extension d'éligibilité pour certaines configurations familiales), le dispositif cible surtout les ménages modestes, tout en écartant les ménages les plus pauvres. En effet, ces derniers remplissent plus rarement la condition d'activité minimale. Par ailleurs, les extensions d'éligibilité pour certaines configurations familiales bénéficient fortement aux parents isolés et aux ménages monoactifs à temps complet. De manière générale, et comparés notamment aux allocations logement, les montants distribués de la prime pour l'emploi contribuent faiblement au niveau de vie des ménages bénéficiaires. La part des majorations dans le montant de la prime est sensiblement la même pour les parents isolés et les couples mariés avec enfants. Toutefois, le montant moyen de la prime est supérieur pour les couples car le nombre d'enfant et le taux d'activité sont globalement plus élevés CC : 52164; 52146A; 5218; 521 FD : France; Politique sociale; Politique fiscale; Prestation sociale; Redistribution des revenus; Evaluation; Simulation; Modèle statistique; Emploi; Salarié; Revenu; Aide au logement; Structure familiale ED : France; Social Policy; Fiscal Policy; Social Allowance; Income Redistribution; Evaluation; Simulation; Statistical Model; Employment; Wage-earner; Income; Housing benefit; Family structure LO : INIST-26465.354000116211670030 543/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-04-15155 INIST FT : Le modèle de microsimulation inés : un outil d'analyse des politiques socio-fiscales ET : (INES microsimulation model : a tool for the analysis of social and fiscal policies) AU : ALBOUY (Valérie); BOUTON (Francois); LE MINEZ (Sylvie); PUCCI (Muriel); CAUSSAT (Laurent) AF : Ministère del'Economie, des finances et de l'industrie - INSEE/France (1 aut., 2 aut.); Ministère des Affaires sociales, du travail et de la solidarité/France (3 aut., 4 aut.); Ministère de la Santé, de la famille et des personnes handicapées - DREES/France (3 aut., 4 aut.); Direction de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiques/Paris/France (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Dossiers solidarité et santé; ISSN 1296-2120; France; Da. 2003; No. 3; Pp. 23-43; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Français FA : Depuis mars 2000, la Drees s'est associée à l'Insee pour développer le modèle de microsimulation Ines afin de disposer d'un outil d'analyse ex ante des coûts budgétaires et des effets redistributifs des politiques socio-fiscales. Cet article a pour objectif dintroduire aux particularités de ce modèle et aux usages qui en sont faits à la Drees ou à l'Insee. La présentation d'Ines est organisée autour de trois axes. Il s'agit dans un premier temps de mettre l'accent sur la richesse des enquêtes Revenus fiscaux auxquelles le modèle est adossé et sur la manière dont ces bases sont projetées afin de répondre aux besoins d'analyse des législations les plus récentes : la version d'Ines présentée ici s'appuie ainsi sur l'enquête Revenus fiscaux de 1999 actualisée de sorte à analyser la législation de l'année 2002. Un deuxième temps dela présentation est consacré l'architecture du modèle Ines et aux options quiont été retenues pour imputer au mieux, à partir des règles d'éligibilité etdes barèmes en vigueuren 2002, les prélèvements et les prestations monétaires affectant le revenu initial des ménages, et permettant d'estimer leur revenu disponible en 2002. Le voile est levé sur quelques règles d'imputation : dans certains cas, faute d'informations suffisantes, les simulateurs doivent en effet procéderà des hypothèses pour sélectionner les éligibles. Afin d'apprécier la qualité des imputations réalisées dans Ines, les masses financières et les effectifs des bénéficiaires ou des redevables des différents transferts sont confrontés aux sources officielles. Ce troisième temps de la présentation est également l'occasion de présenter des méthodes d'analyse des effets redistributifs couramment mobilisées dans Ines. À l'issue de cette présentation proprement dite du modèle, une brève section donne un aperçu de la diversité des travaux réalisés à l'aide d'Ines CC : 52164; 52146A; 5218; 521 FD : Politique fiscale; Politique sociale; Coût; Evaluation; Simulation; Modèle statistique; Revenu; Comptabilité; Prestation sociale; Redistribution des revenus; France ED : Fiscal Policy; Social Policy; Cost; Evaluation; Simulation; Statistical Model; Income; Accounting; Social Allowance; Income Redistribution; France LO : INIST-26465.354000116211670020 544/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-04-15138 INIST FT : La microsimulation des politiques de transferts sociaux et fiscaux à la DREES : objectifs, outils et principales études et évaluations ET : (Microsimulation of social and fiscal transfer policies at the DREES: goals, tools and main studies and assessments) AU : CAUSSAT (Laurent) AF : Direction de la recherche, des études, de l'évaluation et des statistiques/Paris/France (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau monographique SO : Dossiers solidarité et santé; ISSN 1296-2120; France; Da. 2003; No. 3; ; Pp. 92 p.; Bibl. dissem. LA : Français FA : Ce numéro présente une évaluation des effets redistributifs de réformes de politique fiscale et sociale récentes en France, à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation INES. Après que les aspects méthodologiques de ce modèle aient été présentés, les mesures sociales étudiées sont la Prime pour l'emploi et la Prestation d'accueil du jeune enfant (PAJE) CC : 52164; 52146A; 5218; 521 FD : France; Politique fiscale; Politique sociale; Prestation sociale; Prestation familiale; Redistribution des revenus; Emploi; Evaluation; Simulation; Modèle statistique ED : France; Fiscal Policy; Social Policy; Social Allowance; Family benefit; Income Redistribution; Employment; Evaluation; Simulation; Statistical Model LO : INIST-26465.354000116211670000 545/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-04-14676 INIST FT : La redistribution intragénérationnelle dans le système de retraite des salariés du privé : une approche par microsimulation. Commentaire ET : (Intragenerational redistribution and the private-sector employees' pension scheme: A microsimulation approach. Commentary) AU : WALRAET (Emmanuelle); VINCENT (Alexandre); DUPUIS (Jean-Marc); EL MOUDDEN (Claire) AF : Division Redistribution et politiques sociales du département des Études économiques d'ensemble de l'Insee/France (1 aut.); DELTA (UMR ENS-CNRS-EHESS)/France (2 aut.); Gemma-Université de Caen/France (3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Article; Commentaire; Niveau analytique SO : Economie et statistique; ISSN 0336-1454; France; Da. 2003; No. 366; 31-61, 119, 121, 123, 125 [35; Abs. anglais/allemand/espagnol; Bibl. dissem. LA : Français FA : L'impact redistributif du système de retraite français des salariés du privé est analysé ici, pour les générations nées dans les années 1950, avant la réforme intervenue en 2003. Les transferts redistributifs sont évalués en se fondant sur la comparaison des taux de rendement interne. La redistribution intragénérationnelle peut s'apprécier selon deux dimensions: une dimension verticale, en fonction du salaire; une dimension horizontale, essentiellement liée au nombre d'enfants. Afin de neutraliser les transferts induits par le système de retraite entre membres d'un même ménage (surtout de l'homme vers la femme), la redistribution est envisagée au niveau des individus mais aussi des couples. L'analyse est menée à partir de l'Enquête Patrimoine 1998, complétée au moyen du modèle de microsimulation dynamique Destinie. Entre individus, la redistribution est manifeste : les femmes, et particulièrement celles qui disposent des plus bas salaires, en sont les principales bénéficiaires. Parmi les couples, la redistribution est encore nette, dirigée essentiellement vers ceux dont les salaires sont les plus faibles. Une grande part de cette redistribution verticale est imputable au minimum contributif. Les transferts vers les couples ayant élevé plus d'enfants sont très nets et sont largement dus aux avantages familiaux de durée d'assurance. Par ailleurs, les transferts anti-redistributifs dus aux différentiels de mortalité restent de faible ampleur. Ils se concentrent dans la population masculine mais ne conduisent pas globalement à des transferts anti-redistributifs au sein des hommes. Ils n'affectent pas la redistribution entre couples CC : 52142A; 521 FD : France; Régime de retraite; Redistribution des revenus; Génération; Salaire; Carrière professionnelle; Modèle statistique; Simulation; Secteur privé; Taille de la famille; Cycle de vie; Couple; Différence selon le sexe; Rendement; Espérance de vie; Taux de remplacement ED : France; Retirement Plan; Income Redistribution; Generation; Salary; Professional career; Statistical Model; Simulation; Private Entreprise; Family Size; Life Cycle; Couple; Gender difference; Productiveness; Life Expectancy LO : INIST-24228.354000116127520020 546/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-04-10762 INIST FT : (Pauvreté parmi les femmes âgées : évaluation des options des allocations sociales supplémentaires pour promouvoir la réforme de la sécurité sociale) ET : Poverty among elderly women: Assessing SSI options to strengthen social security reform AU : RUPP (Kalman); STRAND (Alexander); DAVIES (Paul S.) AF : Social Security Administration, Office of Policy, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics/Washington, DC/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : The Journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences; ISSN 1079-5014; Etats-Unis; Da. 2003; Vol. 58; No. 6; S359-S368; Bibl. 16 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Objectives. We explore the potential of the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program to reduce poverty among elderly women. We develop a methodological framework that compares how well various reform proposals are targeted to reducing poverty among elderly women. Methods. Using a microsimulation model and survey data matched to SSI administrative records, we model the effects of eight alternative policies on current and potential SSI recipients. We develop an evaluation methodology that systematically compares poverty outcomes, using multiple measures of effectiveness, at given levels of program expansion. Results. All but two of the SSI reforms are clearly more target efficient at various degrees of simulated program expansion than popular proposals to reform Social Security. For a given cost increase, modifying the SSI asset test is the most effective option for reducing severe poverty among elderly women, but several reforms of the SSI income test are also highly effective. Discussion. The SSI program is target efficient in providing a broad safety net to economically vulnerable elderly women. The relationship between SSI and Social Security and the relationship between the SSI asset and income tests have to be reevaluated to make the program more effective and appropriate to changing household structure and work patterns among the elderly population CC : 52164; 521 FD : Etats-Unis; Washington DC; Femme; Vieillissement; Personne âgée; Sécurité sociale; Evaluation; Statistique; Réforme administrative; Méthodologie; Pauvreté; Programme social; Projet; Allocation ED : United States Of America; Washington DC; Woman; Aging; Elderly person; Social Security; Evaluation; Statistics; Administration Reform; Methodology; Poverty; Social Plan; Project; Allocation LO : INIST-4125B.354000118850360090 547/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0504207 INIST ET : A stage characteristic: Preserving product life cycle modeling AU : CHANG (Ping-Teng); CHANG (Ching-Hsiang) AF : Department of Industrial Engineering, Tunghai University, Box 985/Taichung, 407/Taïwan (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Mathematical and computer modelling; ISSN 0895-7177; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2003; Vol. 37; No. 12-13; Pp. 1259-1269; Bibl. 13 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The observed patterns of product life cycles indicate the 'stage' concerns. Such concerns include stage identification, stage-based strategies and, newly introduced here, stage modeling. Stage modeling, as newly introduced here, is concerned with modeling as well as aggregating individual stages in an overall inter-influence manner. Thus, stage modeling not only preserves the respective characteristics of the stages but also may be explored for the stage-related strategies. To date, this issue has not yet been explored in the PLC literature. This paper proposes an approach to modeling PLCs by addressing the stage characteristic-preserving aspect. The concept and technique of the stage characteristic-preserving modeling are discussed. The new product diffusion model by Bass is demonstrated which is bettered by the presented approach. Further, to illustrate the proposed approach, a numerical example is provided. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02H02M; 001D01A11; 001D01A13 FD : Modèle mathématique; Modèle économétrique; Gestion prévisionnelle; Economie marché; Série temporelle; Simulation numérique; Promotion vente; Cycle vie produit; Modélisation stade; Interinfluence; Modèle diffusion produit nouveau ED : Mathematical model; Econometric model; Forecasting management; Market economy; Time series; Numerical simulation; Sale promotion; Product life cycle; Stage modeling; Interinfluence; New product diffusion model SD : Modelo matemático; Modelo econométrico; Gestión provisional; Economía mercado; Serie temporal; Simulación numérica; Promoción venta LO : INIST-18808.354000112254640020 548/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0471689 INIST ET : Weigh-in-motion applications for intelligent transportation systems-commercial vehicle operations: Evaluation using WESTA AU : TRISCHUK (Derek); BERTHELOT (Curtis); TAYLOR (Brian) AF : Transportation Research Centre, College of Ergineering, University of Saskatchewan, 57 Campus Drive/Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 5A9/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.); International Road Dynamics, Inc., 702-43rd Street East/Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7K 3T9/Canada (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2002; No. 1816; Pp. 87-95; Bibl. 6 ref. LA : Anglais EA : An investigation was undertaken to sort the efficiencies of different types of weigh-in-motion (WIM) systems commonly used for enforcement of commercial vehicle operations. Weigh station microsimulation model WESTA (WEigh STAtion) was used. The investigation focused, in particular, on the effect WIM system accuracy has on the effectiveness of presorting commercial vehicles before they approach a weigh station. WESTA simulations were performed, with and without mainline WIM, on a typical commercial weigh station facility across a range of commercial truck volumes (200,400, and 600 Class 9 trucks per hour) and WIM system accuracies (ASTM Type III and Type I WIM). Three evaluation criteria were used: (a) number of compliant trucks required to report to the statiott,(b) number of overweight trucks instructed to bypass the station, and (c) time the weigh station remained open. It was found that weight enforcement efficiency improved with WIM. The improvements in efficiency translate into considerable savings for both the weight enforcement agency in relation to improved enforcement effectiveness and protection of the infrastructure and for the trucking industry in relation to reduced user-delay costs. It was also found that higher WIM system accuracy results in higher agency and user savings. CC : 001D15C; 001D14A09; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Transport marchandise; Système transport; Système intelligent; Véhicule utilitaire; Camion; Volume trafic; Description système; Simulation numérique; Modèle microscopique; Etude cas; Poids; Aspect économique; Minimisation coût; Temps retard; WESTA; Pesage dynamique ED : Road traffic; Freight transportation; Transportation system; Intelligent system; Commercial vehicle; Lorry; Capacity of traffic; System description; Numerical simulation; Microscopic model; Case study; Weight; Economic aspect; Cost minimization; Delay time; Weigh in motion SD : Tráfico carretera; Transporte mercadería; Sistema de transporte; Sistema inteligente; Vehículo utilitario; Camión; Volumen tráfico; Descripción sistema; Simulación numérica; Modelo microscópico; Estudio caso; Peso; Aspecto económico; Minimización costo; Tiempo retardo LO : INIST-10459B.354000112200930100 549/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0459965 INIST ET : Transit: planning and development, management and performance, marketing and fare policy AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau monographique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2002; No. 1799; ; Pp. 121 p.; Bibl. dissem. LA : Anglais EA : This issue contains 14 papers which deal with transit transportation. The principal topics approached by the papers are : transit transport planification and development, management and performance, optimization of transport networks, data enquiries, databases, modelling and simulation tools, marketing, fare policy, funding, signal priorities, passenger information systems, passenger behaviour and intermodal transportation, market study and econometric analysis of public transportation. CC : 001D15B; 001D15G; 001D15C; 001D15D FD : Economie transport; Transport en commun; Transport public; Transport intermodal; Transport ferroviaire; Autobus; Planification; Critère performance; Itinéraire; Modèle origine destination; Réseau transport; Qualité service; Collecte donnée; Système information; Analyse coût; Télématique; Implémentation; Evaluation performance; Transport voyageur; Tarification; Fixation prix; Taxe; Modèle économétrique; Etude socioéconomique; Bien être économique; Etude marché; Financement; Durée trajet; Enquête; Simulation numérique; Trajet journalier ED : Economy of transports; Collective transport system; Public transportation; Intermodal transportation; Rail transportation; Bus; Planning; Performance requirement; Route; Origin destination model; Transportation network; Service quality; Data gathering; Information system; Cost analysis; Telematics; Implementation; Performance evaluation; Passenger transportation; Tariffication; Pricing; Tax; Econometric model; Socioeconomic study; Welfare; Market survey; Financing; Travel time; Survey; Numerical simulation SD : Economía transporte; Transporte colectivo; Transporte público; Transporte intermodal; Transporte ferroviaro; Autobus; Planificación; Criterio resultado; Itinerario; Modelo origen destinación; Red transporte; Calidad servicio; Recolección dato; Sistema información; Análisis costo; Telemática; Ejecución; Evaluación prestación; Transporte pasajero; Fijacion tarifa; Contribución; Modelo econométrico; Estudio socioeconómico; Bienestar económico; Estudio mercado; Financiación; Duración trayecto; Encuesta; Simulación numérica LO : INIST-10459B.354000112189640000 550/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0449274 INIST ET : Transferability of a stochastic toll Plaza computer model AU : KLODZINSKI (Jack); AL-DEEK (Haitham M.) AF : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Central Florida, P.O. Box 162450/Orlando FL 32816-2450/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Transportation Systems Institute, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Central Florida, P.O. Box 162450/Orlando FL 32816-2450/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2002; No. 1811; Pp. 40-49; Bibl. 12 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Transferability of the TPSIM toll plaza microsimulation computer model to other toll plazas was explored with 3 days of data collected between 1994 and 2000 at Dean Plaza, an Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority (OOCEA) toll plaza. TPSIM is a discrete-event stochastic microscopic simulation model that has been previously validated at the 95% confidence level with data from OOCEA's busiest toll plaza, Holland East Plaza. This model has the capability to accurately model virtually any toll plaza scenario. To apply this model to another toll plaza, a calibration procedure is necessary. To identify the modifications necessary to the input parameters, over 400 simulation runs with the 3 selected days from Dean Plaza were compared and statistically analyzed for accuracy. An experimental design was outlined and followed to accurately account for each trial simulation run during the calibration process. The service time was determined to have the most significant impact on the simulation model in much the same manner as it does in the field. The measures of effectiveness (MOEs) chosen to evaluate TPSIM were throughput, average queuing delay, maximum queuing delay, and total queuing delay. At the 95% confidence level, no significant difference was found in the comparison of field and simulated MOE values for all 3 days. Comparison of the Holland East and Dean Plaza results indicates that the TPSIM simulation model is transferable to another toll plaza with different configurations. CC : 001D15B; 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Péage; Simulation numérique; Modèle stochastique; Transférabilité; Système événement discret; Collecte donnée; Durée service; Temps arrivée; Fréquence; Géométrie; Etalonnage; Ecoulement trafic; Evaluation performance; Analyse statistique ED : Road traffic; Toll; Numerical simulation; Stochastic model; Transferability; Discrete event system; Data gathering; Service life; Arrival time; Frequency; Geometry; Calibration; Traffic flow; Performance evaluation; Statistical analysis SD : Tráfico carretera; Peaje; Simulación numérica; Modelo estocástico; Capacidad transferencia; Sistema acontecimiento discreto; Recolección dato; Duración servicio; Tiempo llegada; Frecuencia; Geometría; Contraste; Flujo tráfico; Evaluación prestación; Análisis estadístico LO : INIST-10459B.354000112190040050 551/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0448819 INIST ET : Microsimulation in travel demand modeling: Lessons learned from the New York best practice model AU : VOVSHA (Peter); PETERSEN (Eric); DONNELLY (Robert) AF : PB Consult, Parsons Brinckerhoff, 5 Penn Plaza, 17th Floor/New York NY 10001/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2002; No. 1805; Pp. 68-77; Bibl. 13 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Microsimulation is increasingly assuming a major role in the advancement of demand-modeling practice. At the same time, it is attracting growing attention from the larger transportation-planning community. Four basic advantages of microsimulation versus conventional fractional-probability models are examined. The first is the technical advantage related to computational savings in the calculation and storage of large multidimensional probability arrays. The second is the meaningful advantage gained in the explicit modeling of various decision-making chains and time-space constraints on individual travel that allows for behavioral realism in the demand-modeling procedure. The third relates to the variability of microsimulation outcomes, which can yield full information about the distributions of the travel demand statistics of interest rather than single deterministic estimates or average values. As soon as constraints are introduced into the modeling framework (which often is done at the destination choice stage), competition arises, although generally it has been ignored in standard models. Microsimulation has the potential to handle this competition over work attractions and other travel activities in a meaningful fashion, which is the fourth advantage. These four advantages of microsimulation are discussed in light of the recent development and application of the New York best practice model, a microsimulation demand-modeling system for the New York-New-Jersey-Connecticut metropolitan area. CC : 001D15A FD : Transports; Demande transport; Simulation numérique; Modèle microscopique; Analyse comportementale; Espace temps; Prise décision; Durée trajet; Ménage; Analyse contrainte; Implémentation; New York; Expérience FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Transport demand; Numerical simulation; Microscopic model; Behavioral analysis; Space time; Decision making; Travel time; Household; Stress analysis; Implementation; New York; Experience EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transportes; Demanda transporte; Simulación numérica; Modelo microscópico; Análisis conductual; Espacio tiempo; Toma decision; Duración trayecto; Familia; Análisis tensión; Ejecución; Nueva York; Experiencia LO : INIST-10459B.354000112189150090 552/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0440130 INIST FT : Un modèle de microsimulation pour l'évaluation des émissions polluantes dans les aires urbaines en fonction du régime de marche et pour une typologie véhiculaire ET : Transport and air pollution ET : (A microsimulation model for calculating of pollutant emissions in the urban areas in accordance of driving rate and for a vehicular typology) AU : D'ELIA (Serein); JOUMARD (Robert) AF : Università della Calabria, Dipart. di Pianificazione Territoriale/Ponte Bucci Rende Cosenza /Italie (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Actes INRETS; ISSN 0769-0266; France; Da. 2003; No. 92 p.1; v2.137-v2.143; Abs. anglais; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Français FA : Cet article présente un modèle construit pour le calcul des émissions polluantes dans les aires urbaines, et utilise une méthodologie (d'Elia - Danieli) qui permet de mesurer les réelles émissions sur des véhicules équipés, avec des caractéristiques semblables à celles du parc véhiculaire Italien. Les modèles formulés pour le calcul des émissions polluantes sont nombreux, mais les réelles émissions polluantes en Italie où il existe des conditions de débit très variables même pour la morphologie des infrastructures urbaines existantes (largeur des routes, distances entre les intersections, obstacles, visibilité, etc.) restent peu connues. Les mesures sont relatives à des cycles de conduite UDC et EUDC de plusieurs véhicules, catalysés et non catalysés, qui ont circulé pendant plusieurs mois, avec des flux variables dans des zones caractérisées par des accélérations et des décélérations continues, ou dans des aires sans trafic. La base de données obtenue permet la construction et le calibrage d'un modèle de prévision des émissions valide et adhérent à la réalité des villes italiennes. Le modèle a été ensuite comparé à d'autres modèles pour vérifier les diversités existantes. CC : 001D15C; 001D16C04C FD : Véhicule routier; Emission polluant; Méthode calcul; Italie; Méthodologie; Collecte donnée; Modèle régression; Accélération; Décélération; Etude comparative; Congrès international FG : Europe ED : Road vehicle; Pollutant emission; Computing method; Italy; Methodology; Data gathering; Regression model; Acceleration; Deceleration; Comparative study; International conference EG : Europe SD : Vehículo caminero; Emisión contaminante; Método cálculo; Italia; Metodología; Recolección dato; Modelo regresión; Aceleración; Desaceleración; Estudio comparativo; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-22863.354000117353890510 553/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0439023 INIST ET : Large-scale multi-agent transportation simulations AU : CETIN (Nurhan); NAGEL (Kai); RANEY (Bryan); VOELLMY (Andreas); ATTIG (Norbert); ESSER (Rüdiger); KREMER (Manfred) AF : Department of Computer Science, ETH Zentrum IFW B27.1, ETH Zürich/Suisse (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.); NIC, Research Centre Jülich/Allemagne (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Computer physics communications; ISSN 0010-4655; Coden CPHCBZ; Pays-Bas; Da. 2002; Vol. 147; No. 1-2; Pp. 559-564; Bibl. 14 ref. LA : Anglais EA : It is now possible to microsimulate the traffic of whole metropolitan areas with 10 million travelers or more, &dquot;micro&dquot; meaning that each traveler is resolved individually as a particle. In contrast to physics or chemistry, these particles have internal intelligence; for example, they know where they are going. This means that a transportation simulation project will have, besides the traffic microsimulation, modules which model this intelligent behavior. The most important modules are for route generation and for demand generation. Demand is generated by each individual in the simulation making a plan of activities such as sleeping, eating, working, shopping, etc. If activities are planned at different locations, they obviously generate demand for transportation. This however is not enough since those plans are influenced by congestion which initially is not known. This is solved via a relaxation method, which means iterating back and forth between the activities/routes generation and the traffic simulation. CC : 001D15A FD : Trafic routier; Système transport; Planification; File attente; Calcul parallèle; Simulation numérique; Automate cellulaire; 8940 ED : Road traffic; Transportation system; Planning; Queueing theory; Parallel computation; Numerical simulation; Cellular automaton SD : Tráfico carretera; Sistema de transporte; Planificación; Cálculo paralelo; Simulación numérica; Autómata celular LO : INIST-14656.354000104496441210 554/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0436009 INIST ET : An expert system for national economy model simulations AU : ROLJIC (Lazo) AF : Fulbright Fellow, DuPree College of Management, Georgia Institute of Technology/Atlanta Georgia/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Faculty of Economics, University of Banja Luka/Banja Luka/Bosnie-Herzégovine (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Yugoslav journal of operations research; ISSN 0354-0243; Yougoslavie; Da. 2002; Vol. 12; No. 2; Pp. 247-269; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Anglais EA : There are some fundamental economic uncertainties. We cannot forecast economic events with a very high scientific precision. It is very clear that there does not exist a unique &dquot;general&dquot; model, which can yield all answers to a wide range of macroeconomic issues. Therefore, we use several different kinds of models on segments of the macroeconomic problem. Different models can distinguish/solve economy desegregation, time series analysis and other subfactors involved in macroeconomic problem solving. A major issue becomes finding a meaningful method to link these econometric models. Macroeconomic models were linked through development of an Expert System for National Economy Model Simulations (ESNEMS). ESNEMS consists of five parts: (1) small-scale short-term national econometric model, (2) Methodology of Interactive Nonlinear Goal Programming (MINGP), (3) data-base of historical macro-economic aggregates, (4) software interface for interactive communications between a model and a decision maker, and (5) software for solving problems. ESNEMS was developed to model the optimum macro-economic policy of a developing country (SFRY-formerly Yugoslavia). Most econometric models are very complex. Optimizing of the economic policy is typically defined as a nonlinear goal programming problem. To solve/optimize these models, a new methodology, MINGP, was developed as a part of ESNEMS. MINGP is methodologically based on linear goal programming and feasible directions method. Using Euler's Homogeneous Function Theorem, MINGP linearizes nonlinear homogeneous functions. The highest priorities in minimizing the objective function are the growth of gross domestic product and the decrease of inflation. In the core of the optimization model, MINGP, there is a small-scale econometric model. This model was designed through analysis of the causal relations in the SFRY's social reproduction process of the past 20 years. The objective of the econometric model is to simulate potential short term (one-year) national economic policies. Ex-ante simulation and optimization of economic policy for 1986 showed that, in SFRY, non-consistent macro-economic policy was resolute and led to both slower economic development and more rapid growth of inflation. CC : 001D00D; 001D01A03 FD : Système expert; Modèle économique; Modèle économétrique; Macroéconomie; Analyse multicritère; Prise décision; Programmation non linéaire; Programmation objectif; Optimum Pareto; Fonction production Cobb Douglas; Théorème fonction homogène Euler ED : Expert system; Economic model; Econometric model; Macroeconomics; Multicriteria analysis; Decision making; Non linear programming; Goal programming; Pareto optimum; Cobb Douglas production function SD : Sistema experto; Modelo económico; Modelo econométrico; Macroeconomía; Análisis multicriterio; Toma decision; Programación no lineal; Programación objetivo; Optimo Pareto; Función producción Cobb Douglas LO : INIST-22601.354000117924630090 555/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0430770 INIST FT : Gestion durable de nappes aquifères : Une approche par la théorie de la viabilité ET : (Sustainable management of aquifers: a viability approach) AU : TERREAUX (Jean-Philippe); RAPAPORT (Alain); DOYEN (Luc) AF : Institut de recherche pour l'ingénierie de l'agriculture et de l'environnement/Antony/France; Ecole nationale supérieure agronomique de Montpellier/Montpellier/France; INRA. Centre de recherche de Montpellier/Montpellier/France; Université de Montpellier 2/Montpellier/France DT : Rapport; Niveau monographique SO : Gestion durable de nappes aquifères : Une approche par la théorie de la viabilité; France; Da. 2001; CEMAGREF/01-0789; Pp. 22 p. LA : Français EA : Ce document aborde avec les outils de la viabilité le problème de la gestion des nappes aquifères. On suppose ici qu'un ensemble d'agriculteurs utilise de l'eau pompée dans une nappe phréatique, pour irriguer les cultures. Cette eau permet une plus forte production, ce qui se traduit par une plus grande utilité procurée aux agents considérés. Toutefois cette ressource ne se renouvelle qu'avec un certain retard. Nous introduisons la notion de noyau de viabilité, afin d'étudier d'une part les états et d'autre part les politiques qui soient soutenables. Les résultats analytiques sont illustrés par des simulations numériques. CC : 430A02C; 001E01N03; 002A32C03B; 226A03 FD : Agriculture durable; Développement durable; Exploitation durable; Gestion eau; Gestion ressource eau; Irrigation; Politique environnement; Pompage; Viabilité; Nappe eau; Nappe phréatique; Eau souterraine; Méthodologie; Modélisation; Aide décision; Méthode analyse; Résolution problème; Modèle économétrique; Modèle mathématique; Modèle simulation; DURABILITE FG : Economie agricole; Effet environnement; Economie mathématique; Econométrie; Hydrogéologie; Mathématiques appliquées; Socioéconomie ED : Sustainable agriculture; Sustainable development; Sustainable use; Water management; Water resource management; Irrigation; Environmental policy; Pumping; Viability; Aquifers; Ground water table; Ground water; Methodology; Modeling; Decision aid; Analysis method; Problem solving; Econometric model; Mathematical model; Simulation model; SUSTAINABILITY EG : Agricultural economics; Environmental effect; Mathematical economy; Econometrics; Hydrogeology; Applied mathematics; Socioeconomics SD : Agricultura sostenible; Desarrollo durable; Exploitación sustentable; Gestión del agua; Gestión recurso agua; Irrigación; Política medio ambiente; Bombeo; Viabilidad; Capa agua; Capa freática; Agua subterránea; Metodología; Modelización; Ayuda decisión; Método análisis; Resolución problema; Modelo econométrico; Modelo matemático; Modelo simulación; SOSTENIBILIDAD LO : INIST-GR 1903.354000117389120000 556/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0426555 INIST ET : Simulation estimation of mixed discrete choice models using randomized and scrambled Halton sequences AU : BHAT (Chandra R.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, ECJ 6.8, University of Texas at Austin/Austin, TX 78712/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part B : methodological; ISSN 0191-2615; Coden TRBMDY; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2003; Vol. 37; No. 9; Pp. 837-855; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : The use of simulation techniques has been increasing in recent years in the transportation and related fields to accommodate flexible and behaviorally realistic structures for analysis of decision processes. This paper proposes a randomized and scrambled version of the Halton sequence for use in simulation estimation of discrete choice models. The scrambling of the Halton sequence is motivated by the rapid deterioration of the standard Halton sequence's coverage of the integration domain in high dimensions of integration. The randomization of the sequence is motivated from a need to statistically compute the simulation variance of model parameters. The resulting hybrid sequence combines the good coverage property of quasi-Monte Carlo sequences with the ease of estimating simulation error using traditional Monte Carlo methods. The paper develops an evaluation framework for assessing the performance of the traditional pseudo-random sequence, the standard Halton sequence, and the scrambled Halton sequence. The results of computational experiments indicate that the scrambled Halton sequence performs better than the standard Halton sequence and the traditional pseudo-random sequence for simulation estimation of models with high dimensionality of integration. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Modèle simulation; Modèle mixte; Choix; Randomisation; Echange désordonné; Méthode Monte Carlo; Evaluation performance; Résultat; Simulation numérique; Fonction vraisemblance; Modèle économétrique; Prise décision; Modèle probit ED : Transportation; Simulation model; Mixed model; Choice; Randomization; Scrambling; Monte Carlo method; Performance evaluation; Result; Numerical simulation; Likelihood function; Econometric model; Decision making; Probit model SD : Transportes; Modelo simulación; Modelo mixto; Elección; Aleatorización; Intercambio desordendo; Método Monte Carlo; Evaluación prestación; Resultado; Simulación numérica; Función verosimilitud; Modelo econométrico; Toma decision; Modelo probit LO : INIST-12377B.354000112331120040 557/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0424358 INIST ET : Impact of dynamic and safety-conscious route guidance on accident risk AU : ABDULHAI (Baher); LOOK (Horace) AF : ITS Centre, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of Toronto/Toronto ON, M5S 1A4/Canada (1 aut.); Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of Toronto/Toronto ON, M5S 1A4/Canada (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2003; Vol. 129; No. 4; Pp. 369-376; Bibl. 19 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Under intelligent transportation systems, dynamic route guidance systems (DRG) provide routing information to motorists based on current traffic conditions on a network. Not enough attention, however, has been given to the impact of such dynamic routing decisions on network safety in terms of the predicted number of accidents. The objectives of this paper are to investigate the variation of network-wide accidents caused by traffic redistribution subject to various levels of DRG market penetration, and to examine the potential of a new safety-enhanced route guidance system. A microsimulation model was developed and integrated with a set of accident prediction models for links and intersections. Accident estimates were plotted against time to produce an accident profile that could describe the change of accident occurrence over a time period. Accident profiles, together with average travel time, were used to explain the relationships between DRG market penetration and the number of network-wide accidents. The integrated simulation model was also applied to enhance DRG by suggesting routes with the fewest estimated accidents and hence making route guidance safety conscious. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Sécurité trafic; Prévention accident; Analyse risque; Accident circulation; Système transport; Système intelligent; Gestion trafic; Guidage; Routage; Simulation numérique; Modèle microscopique; Modèle dynamique; Modèle prévision; Demande transport ED : Road traffic; Traffic safety; Accident prevention; Risk analysis; Traffic accident; Transportation system; Intelligent system; Traffic management; Guidance; Routing; Numerical simulation; Microscopic model; Dynamic model; Forecast model; Transport demand SD : Tráfico carretera; Seguridad tráfico; Prevención accidente; Análisis riesgo; Accidente tráfico; Sistema de transporte; Sistema inteligente; Gestión tráfico; Guiado; Enrutamiento; Simulación numérica; Modelo microscópico; Modelo dinámico; Modelo previsión; Demanda transporte LO : INIST-572E.354000118564900050 558/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0422793 INIST ET : Choice of a mechanical valve or a bioprosthesis for AVR: does CABG matter? Discussion AU : PUVIMANASINGHE (John P. A.); TAKKENBERG (Johanna J. M.); EIJKEMANS (Marinus J. C.); STEYERBERG (Ewout W.); VAN HERWERDEN (Lex A.); GRUNKEMEIER (Gary L.); HABBEMA (J. Dik F.); BOGERS (Ad J. J. C.); ANTUNES (M.); OELERT (H.); YANKAH (C.); BAUDET (E.) AF : Department of Cardio-thoracic Surgery, Erasmus Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 5 aut., 8 aut.); Center for Clinical Decision Sciences, Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 7 aut.); Providence Health System/Portland, OR/Etats-Unis (6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Article; Commentaire; Niveau analytique SO : European journal of cardio-thoracic surgery; ISSN 1010-7940; Coden EJCSE7; Pays-Bas; Da. 2003; Vol. 23; No. 5; Pp. 688-695; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Objective: Mechanical valves and bioprostheses are the commonly used devices in aortic valve replacement (AVR). Many patients with valvular disease also require concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). We used a microsimulation model to provide insight into the outcomes of patients after AVR with mechanical valves and stented bioprostheses, with and without CABG, and to determine the age-thresholds or age crossover points in outcomes between the two valve types. Methods: We conducted a meta-analysis of published results after primary AVR with mechanical prostheses (nine reports, 4274 patients, 25,726 patient-years) and stented porcine bioprostheses (13 reports, 9007 patients, 54,151 patient-years) to estimate risks of valve-related events. A hazard ratio of 1.3 was used to incorporate the effect of CABG on long-term survival. Estimates were entered into a microsimulation model, which was then used to predict the outcomes of patients after AVR, with and without CABG. The model calculations were validated using a large data set from Portland, USA. Results: For a 65-year-old male without CABG, the life expectancy (LE) was 11.2 and 11.6 years and the event-free life expectancy (EFLE) was 8.2 and 8.9 years, respectively, after implantation with mechanical valves and bioprostheses. The lifetime risk of at least one valve-related event was 51 and 47%, respectively. The age crossover point between the two valve types, considering the above outcome parameters, was 59, 60 and 63 years, respectively. CABG reduced LE and consequently EFLE and lifetime risk of an event, but only minimally influenced the patient age crossover points. The model calculations showed good agreement with the Portland data. Conclusions: The currently recommended patient age for using a bioprosthesis (65 years) could be lowered further, irrespective of concomitant CABG. The trade-off between the reduced risks of bioprosthetic failure and of hemorrhage in mechanical valves, resulting from a lower LE, minimized the effect of CABG on the age crossover points between the two valve types. CC : 002B25E FD : Valvule aortique; Remplacement; Artère coronaire; Pronostic; Modélisation; Valvulopathie aortique; Cardiopathie coronaire; Homme; Chirurgie combinée; Dérivation; Greffe; Aortocoronaire; Traitement; Bioprothèse FG : Chirurgie; Cardiopathie valvulaire ED : Aortic valve; Replacement; Coronary artery; Prognosis; Modeling; Aortic valve disease; Coronary heart disease; Human; Combined surgery; Bypass; Graft; Aortocoronary; Treatment; Bioprosthesis EG : Surgery; Cardiac valvular disease SD : Válvula aórtica; Reemplazo; Arteria coronaria; Pronóstico; Modelización; Valvulopatía aórtica; Cardiopatía coronaria; Hombre; Cirugía combinada; Derivación; Injerto; Aortocoronaria; Tratamiento; Bioprótesis LO : INIST-21307.354000111165230060 559/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0404648 INIST ET : Modeling changes in wildlife habitat and timber revenues in response to Forest management AU : MARZLUFF (John M.); MILLSPAUGH (Joshua J.); CEDER (Kevin R.); OLIVER (Chadwick D.); WITHEY (John); MCCARTER (James B.); MASON (C. L.); COMNICK (Jeffrey); DESTEFANO (Stephen); HAIGHT (Robert G.) AF : College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Box 352100/Seattle, WA 98195/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut., 7 aut., 8 aut.); Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences, University of Missouri, 302 A-BNR Building/Columbia, MO 65211/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); U.S. Geological Survey, Massachusetts Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Holdsworth Natural Resources Center, University of Massachusetts/Amherst, MA 01003/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); USDA Forest Service, North Central Research Station, 1992 Folwell Ave./St. Paul, MN 55108/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Forest science; ISSN 0015-749X; Coden FOSCAD; Etats-Unis; Da. 2002; Vol. 48; No. 2; Pp. 191-202; Bibl. 33 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Few models evaluate the effects of forest management options on wildlife habitat and incorporate temporal and spatial trends in forest growth. Moreover, existing habitat models do not explicitly consider economic trade-offs or allow for landscape level projections. To address these concerns, we linked standard wildlife habitat suitability models with habitat projections from the Landscape Management System (LMS). LMS integrates spatially explicit forest inventories with forest growth, decay, and silviculture treatment (e.g., planting, thinning, harvesting) models to compare some economic and biological impacts of forest management on wildlife habitats at spatial scales ranging from the individual forest stand to the landscape. We used LMS to quantify pileated woodpecker (Dryocopus pileatus), Cooper's hawk (Accipiter cooperi), and southern red-backed vole (Clethrionomys gapperi) habitat qualities across landscapes and to project habitat changes through time.[...] CC : 002A14B04B; 002A14D02B; 002A33B; 002A33C01 FD : Changement; Revenu économique; Gestion forestière; Impact économique; Impact environnement; Modélisation; Modèle mathématique; Habitat; Vie sauvage; Faune; Sylvicole; Aves; Rodentia; Bois; Produit forestier; Washington; Etude économique; Etude régionale; Etude sur modèle; Dynamique végétation; Filière bois; Gestion environnement; Production forestière; Protection faune; Qualité environnement; Sylviculture; Simulation ordinateur; Modèle dynamique; Modèle économétrique; Modèle simulation; Modèle spatial; Echelle spatiale; FORET DE PRODUCTION; Forêt décidue; FORET RESINEUSE; FORET TEMPEREE; Paysage; Peuplement forestier; Accipiter cooperi; Clethrionomys gapperi; Dryocopus pileatus; INVENTAIRE FORESTIER; Landscape Management System FG : Vertebrata; Mammalia; Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique; Ecologie; Economie forestière; Foresterie; Economie mathématique; Informatique; Zone tempérée; ETATS DU PACIFIQUE (EU); REGION NEARCTIQUE ED : Change; Income; Forest management; Modeling; Habitat; Wild life; Aves; Rodentia; Wood; Washington EG : Vertebrata; Mammalia; United States; North America; America; Ecology; Forest economics; Forestry; Temperate zone SD : Cambio; Renta; Administración forestal; Modelización; Habitat; Vida salvaje; Aves; Rodentia; Madera; Washingtón LO : INIST-8566.354000100668770020 560/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0388237 INIST ET : Motorway flow quality impacts of advanced driver assistance systems AU : HOOGENDOORN (Serge P.); MINDERHOUD (Michiel M.) AF : Transportation and Traffic Engineering Section, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, P.O. Box 5048/2600 GA Delft/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2002; No. 1800; Pp. 69-77; Bibl. 14 ref. LA : Anglais EA : An ex ante impact assessment of advanced driver assistance systems was conducted with focus on autonomous intelligent cruise control and intelligent speed adaptation. The effects of these systems on efficiency, reliability, driving comfort, and safety were addressed by microsimulation for different penetration levels and bottleneck layouts. The deployment of cruise control improves bottleneck capacity. The bottleneck reliability, however, deteriorates in most cases. No significant changes in traffic safety, expressed by the time drivers are exposed to small time-to-collision values, could be established. From the simulation experiments it appears that intelligent speed adaptation has no effect on capacity and provides no substantial contrihution to bottleneck reliability. Contrary to expectations, no significant safety benefits could be established using the study's assessment approach. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Autoroute; Ecoulement trafic; Système intelligent; Conduite véhicule; Assistance utilisateur; Vitesse déplacement; Efficacité; Sécurité trafic; Conception système; Description système; Etude impact; Qualité; Modèle simulation; Scénario; Résultat; Recommandation ED : Road traffic; Freeway; Traffic flow; Intelligent system; Vehicle driving; User assistance; Speed; Efficiency; Traffic safety; System design; System description; Impact study; Quality; Simulation model; Script; Result; Recommendation SD : Tráfico carretera; Autopista; Flujo tráfico; Sistema inteligente; Conducción vehículo; Asistencia usuario; Velocidad desplazamiento; Eficacia; Seguridad tráfico; Concepción sistema; Descripción sistema; Estudio impacto; Calidad; Modelo simulación; Argumento; Resultado; Recomendación LO : INIST-10459B.354000112189070090 561/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0387913 INIST ET : Genetic algorithm-based optimization approach and generic tool for calibrating traffic microscopic simulation parameters AU : MA (Tao); ABDULHAI (Baher) AF : Intelligent Transportation Systems Centre and Testbed, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street/Toronto, Ontario, M5S 1A4/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2002; No. 1800; Pp. 6-15; Bibl. 15 ref. LA : Anglais EA : GENOSIM is a generic traffic microsimulation parameter optimization tool that uses genetic algorithms and was implemented in the Port Area network in downtown Toronto, Canada. GENOSIM was developed as a pilot software as part of the pursuit of a fast, systematic, and robust calibration process. It employs the state of the art in combinatorial parametric optimization to automate the tedious task of hand calibrating traffic microsimulation models. The employed global search technique, genetic algorithms, can be integrated with any dynamic traffic microscopic simulation tool. In this research, Paramics, the microscopic traffic simulation platform currently adopted at the University of Toronto Intelligent Transportation Systems Centre, was used. Paramics consists of high-performance, cross-linked traffic models that have multiple user adjustable parameters. Genetic algorithms in GENOSIM manipulate the values of those control parameters and search for an optimal set of values that minimize the discrepancy between simulation output and real field data. Results obtained by replicating observed vehicle counts are promising. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Transports; Système intelligent; Trafic routier; Modèle simulation; Algorithme génétique; Optimisation; Conception système; Intégration; Interface utilisateur; Etude cas; Expérimentation; Résultat; Canada FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Intelligent system; Road traffic; Simulation model; Genetic algorithm; Optimization; System design; Integration; User interface; Case study; Experimentation; Result; Canada EG : North America; America SD : Transportes; Sistema inteligente; Tráfico carretera; Modelo simulación; Algoritmo genético; Optimización; Concepción sistema; Integración; Interfase usuario; Estudio caso; Experimentación; Resultado; Canada LO : INIST-10459B.354000112189070020 562/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0321741 INIST ET : Long-term modelling of weed control strategies: analysis of threshold-based options for weed species with contrasted competitive abilities AU : MUNIER-JOLAIN (N. M.); CHAUVEL (B.); GASQUEZ (J.) AF : Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (1NRA), Unité de Malherbologie et Agronomie/Dijon/France (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Weed research; ISSN 0043-1737; Coden WEREAT; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2002; Vol. 42; No. 2; Pp. 107-122; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : A simple life-cycle-based demography model was adapted for two contrasting weed species (Alopecurus myosuroides and Poa annual. This model included a seed production function that accounted for population self-regulation through weed:weed interactions. The A. myosuroides version of the model was tested with field data. Long-term simulations of population demography were then performed to investigate the relationship between weed control strategies based on density thresholds and both the frequency of herbicide use and the long-term economic profitability. This study confirms that threshold-based weed management strategies are more cost-effective than spraying every year and may allow important reductions in herbicide use. However, after the first transient years of either systematically spraying or withholding herbicide, the long-term spraying frequency was insensitive to threshold values between 0.01 and 100 plants m-2. The highest long-term profitability was obtained for the lowest threshold tested, and the profitability decreased rapidly when the threshold was raised above 4-6 and 10-20 plants m-2 for A. myosuroides and P. annua respectively. The study thus indicates that the exact threshold value is of little importance for the long-term reliance of the system on herbicide, provided that it is reasonably low. For species with low competitive ability, high thresholds may be used in some cropping systems to reduce the spraying frequency for environmental considerations, but those options would also reduce the profitability if no compensatory measures were taken. CC : 002A34H02B FD : Désherbage chimique; Stratégie; Aptitude compétition; Seuil dégât économique; Spécificité espèce; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Long terme; Mauvaise herbe; Alopecurus myosuroides; Poa annua; Herbicide; Etude sur modèle; Agriculture raisonnée; Protection environnement; Rentabilité; Compétition interspécifique; Densité population; Dynamique population; Simulation ordinateur; Modèle économétrique; Modèle mathématique; Densité dépendance; Fonction production; Donnée expérimentale; Essai en champ; Bourgogne FG : Gramineae; Monocotyledones; Angiospermae; Spermatophyta; Pesticide; Agronomie; Economie agricole; Malherbologie; Mathématiques appliquées; Produit agrochimique ED : Chemical weed control; Strategy; Competitive ability; Economic damage threshold; Species specificity; Modeling; Simulation model; Long term; Weed; Alopecurus myosuroides; Poa annua; Herbicide; Model study EG : Gramineae; Monocotyledones; Angiospermae; Spermatophyta; Pesticides; Agronomy; Agricultural economics; Weed science; Applied mathematics; Agricultural chemical product SD : Deshierba química; Estrategia; Aptitud competencia; Umbral daño económico; Especificidad especie; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Largo plazo; Malezas; Alopecurus myosuroides; Poa annua; Herbicida; Estudio sobre modelo LO : INIST-12168.354000101225890030 563/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0287919 INIST ET : Prognosis after aortic root replacement with cryopreserved allografts in adults AU : TAKKENBERG (Johanna J. M.); EIJKEMANS (Marinus J. C.); VAN HERWERDEN (Lex A.); STEYERBERG (Ewout W.); LANE (Mary M.); ELKINS (Ronald C.); HABBEMA (J. Dik F.); BOGERS (Ad J. J. C.) AF : Departments of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery and Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas; Section of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Department of Surgery, University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center/Oklahoma City, Oklahoma/Etats-Unis DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : The Annals of thoracic surgery; ISSN 0003-4975; Coden ATHSAK; Etats-Unis; Da. 2003; Vol. 75; No. 5; Pp. 1482-1489; Bibl. 31 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background. Aortic root replacement with cryopreserved allografts is associated with excellent hemodynamics, little endocarditis, low thromboembolic event rates, and no need for anticoagulation. There is, however, concern regarding the long-term durability of this valve substitute, especially in younger patients. Meta-analysis and microsimulation were used to calculate age-specific long-term prognosis after allograft aortic root replacement based on current evidence. Methods. Our center's experience with cryopreserved allograft aortic root replacement in 165 adult patients was combined in a meta-analysis with reported and individual results from four other hospitals. Using this information, the microsimulation model predicted age- and gender-specific total and reoperation-free and event-free life expectancy. Results. The pooled results comprised 629 patients with a total follow-up of 1860 patient-years (range 0 to 12.8 years). Annual risks were 0.6% for thromboembolism, 0.05% for bleeding, 0.5% for endocarditis, and 0.5% for nonstructural valve failure. Structural allograft failure requiring reoperation occurred in 15 patients, and a patient age-specific Weibull function was constructed accordingly. Calculated total life expectancy varied from 27 years in a 25-year-old to 12 years in a 65-year-old male; corresponding actual lifetime risk of reoperation was 89% and 35%, respectively. Conclusions. Cryopreserved aortic allografts have an age-related limited durability. This results in a considerable lifetime risk of reoperation, especially in young patients. The combination of meta-analysis and microsimulation provides an appropriate tool for estimating individualized long-term outcome after aortic valve replacement and can be useful both for patient counseling and prognostic research purposes. CC : 002B25E FD : Homogreffe; Cryoconservation; Homme; Valvule aortique; Pronostic; Mortalité; Morbidité; Modèle simulation; Métaanalyse; Analyse risque; Espérance vie FG : Greffe; Chirurgie ED : Homograft; Cryopreservation; Human; Aortic valve; Prognosis; Mortality; Morbidity; Simulation model; Metaanalysis; Risk analysis; Life expectancy EG : Graft; Surgery SD : Homoinjerto; Crioconservación; Hombre; Válvula aórtica; Pronóstico; Mortalidad; Morbilidad; Modelo simulación; Mataanálisis; Análisis riesgo; Esperanza de vida LO : INIST-13779.354000118070550180 564/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0221746 BDSP FT : La cessation d'activité au sein des couples : y a-t-il interdépendance des choix ? AU : SEDILLOT (B.); WALRAET (E.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : ECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUE; ISSN 0336-1454; France; Da. 2002-12; No. 357-358; Pp. 79-102; Bibl. 24 ref.; 5 tabl., 6 graph. LA : Français FA : Dans la plupart des modèles de choix de départ à la retraite, la liquidation des droits ne prend pas en compte la présence d'un conjoint. Or, plusieurs facteurs pourraient générer une interdépendance entre les décisions d'activité des deux conjoints. L'analyse descriptive des comportements de cessations d'activité des couples semble accréditer l'idée d'une certaine interdépendance des choix des conjoints conduisant à un effort de rapprochement des dates de cessation. Mais la forte pénalisation des départs anticipés dans le régime général limite la portée de cet effet, comme l'illustrent des simulations sur cas type. CC : 002B30A11 FD : Age; Retraite; Sexe; Motivation; Choix; Priorité; Couple; Modèle économétrique; Simulation; France FG : Europe ED : Age; Retirement; Sex; Motivation; Choice; Priority; Couple; Econometric model; Simulation; France EG : Europe SD : Edad; Jubilación; Sexo; Motivación; Elección; Prioridad; Pareja; Modelo econométrico; Simulación; Francia LO : BDSP/CREDES-S18 565/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0142721 INIST ET : Econometric models of asymmetric ascending auctions AU : HAN HONG; SHUM (Matthew) AF : Department of Economics, Princeton University, Fisher Hall/Princeton, NJ 08544-1021/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2003; Vol. 112; No. 2; Pp. 327-358; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : *We develop econometric models of ascending (English) auctions which allow for both bidder asymmetries as well as common and/or private value components in bidders' underlying valuations. We show that the equilibrium inverse bid functions in each round of the auction are implicitly defined (pointwise) by a system of nonlinear equations, so that conditions for the existence and uniqueness of an increasing-strategy equilibrium are essentially identical to those which ensure a unique and increasing solution to the system of equations. We exploit the computational tractability of this characterization in order to develop an econometric model, thus extending the literature on structural estimation of auction models. Finally, an empirical example illustrates how equilibrium learning affects bidding during the course of the auction. CC : 001A02H01K; 001D01A01; 001A02H02C; 001D04A02 FD : Modèle économétrique; Méthode statistique; Enchère; Système équation; Système non linéaire; Modèle structure; Condition existence; Unicité solution; Equilibre Nash; Jeu dynamique; Loi lognormale; Modèle empirique; Méthode Monte Carlo; Transmission information; Estimation simulation; Mesure asymétrie; Enchère asymétrique; Enchère ascendante ED : Econometric model; Statistical method; Bidding; Equation system; Non linear system; Structural model; Existence condition; Solution uniqueness; Nash equilibrium; Dynamic game; Lognormal distribution; Empirical model; Monte Carlo method; Information transmission; Simulation estimation; Skewness measure; Asymmetric auction; Ascending auction SD : Modelo econométrico; Método estadístico; Subasta; Sistema ecuación; Sistema no lineal; Modelo estructura; Condición existencia; Unicidad solución; Equilibrio Nash; Juego dinámico; Ley lognormal; Modelo empírico; Método Monte Carlo; Transmisión información LO : INIST-16460.354000107168360040 566/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0138904 INIST ET : The costs of the Kyoto Protocol in the European Union AU : VIGUIER (Laurent L.); BABIKER (Mustafa H.); REILLY (John M.) AF : MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 77 Massachusetts Avenue MIT E40-271/Cambridge, MA 02139-4307/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); Logilab-HEC, University of Geneva/Geneva/Suisse (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2003; Vol. 31; No. 5; Pp. 459-481; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : We estimate reference CO2 emission projections in the European Union, and quantify the economic impacts of the Kyoto commitment on Member States. We consider the case where each EU member individually meets a CO2 emissions target, applying a country-wide cap and trade system to meet the target but without trade among countries. We use a version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, here disaggregated to separately include 9 European Community countries and commercial and household transportation sectors. We compare our results with that of four energy-economic models that have provided detailed analyses of European climate change policy. In the absence of specific additional climate policy measures, the EPPA reference projections of carbon emissions increase by 14% from 1990 levels. The EU-wide target under the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change is a reduction in emissions to 8% below 1990 levels. EPPA emissions projections are similar to other recent modeling results, but there are underlying differences in energy and carbon intensities among the projections. If EU countries were to individually meet the EU allocation of the Community-wide carbon cap specified in the Kyoto Protocol, we find using EPPA that carbon prices vary from $91 in the United Kingdom to $385 in Denmark; welfare costs range from 0.6% to 5%. CC : 001D06A01B; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Politique énergétique; Politique environnement; Lutte antipollution; Prévention pollution; Pollution air; Emission polluant; Carbone dioxyde; Répartition par secteur; Répartition géographique; Prévision; Moyen terme; Long terme; Analyse coût; Coût marginal; Impact économique; PIB; Bien être économique; Simulation; Modèle équilibre général; Modèle économétrique; Etude comparative; Union européenne; Modèle EPPA; Modèle POLES; Modèle PRIMES; Modèle WEPS; Modèle GTEM ED : Energy policy; Environmental policy; Pollution control; Pollution prevention; Air pollution; Pollutant emission; Carbon dioxide; Distribution by activities; Geographic distribution; Forecasting; Medium term; Long term; Cost analysis; Marginal cost; Economic impact; Gross domestic product; Welfare; Simulation; General equilibrium model; Econometric model; Comparative study; European Union SD : Política energética; Política medio ambiente; Lucha anticontaminación; Prevención polución; Contaminación aire; Emisión contaminante; Carbono dióxido; Repartición por sector; Distribución geográfica; Previsión; Término medio; Largo plazo; Análisis costo; Coste marginal; Impacto económico; PIB; Bienestar económico; Simulación; Modelo equilibrio general; Modelo econométrico; Estudio comparativo; Unión Europea LO : INIST-16417.354000107227010050 567/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0138499 INIST ET : Economic assessment of combined cycle gas turbines in Australia. Some effects of microeconomic reform and technological change AU : NAUGHTEN (Barry) AF : Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Industries Brance, ABARE, Box 1563/Canberra ACT 2601/Australie (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2003; Vol. 31; No. 3; Pp. 225-245; Bibl. 40 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Australian electricity markets and natural gas markets are undergoing rapid reform. Choosing among electricity generation modes is a key issue. Such choices are affected by expectations about the future structure of these markets and future technologies, and how they affect costs and emissions. In the research reported in this paper, the MARKAL model of the Australian energy system is used to evaluate the competitive position of natural gas fired combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) in the energy sector as a whole. Competing in the sector are large-scale electricity generation technologies such as refurbished existing coal fired stations and advanced forms of coal fired generation. The modelling incorporates new data on electricity supply technologies and options. CC : 001D06A01A; 001D06A01C4; 230 FD : Economie énergie; Production énergie électrique; Répartition par source; Prévision; Moyen terme; Etude comparative; Compétitivité; Charbon; Gaz naturel; Centrale charbon; Centrale cycle combiné; Turbine gaz; Long terme; Scénario; Investissement; Capacité production; Productivité; Diminution coût; Coût production; Coût énergie; Simulation; Modèle économétrique; Optimisation économique; Minimisation coût; Australie; Modèle MARKAL; 1975-1995 FG : Océanie ED : Energy economy; Electric power production; Distribution by sources; Forecasting; Medium term; Comparative study; Competitiveness; Coal; Natural gas; Coal power plant; Combined cycle power plant; Gas turbine; Long term; Script; Investment; Production capacity; Productivity; Cost lowering; Production cost; Energy cost; Simulation; Econometric model; Economic optimization; Cost minimization; Australia EG : Oceania SD : Economía energía; Producción energía eléctrica; Repartición por fuente; Previsión; Término medio; Estudio comparativo; Competitividad; Carbón; Gas natural; Central carbón; Central ciclo combinado; Turbina gas; Largo plazo; Argumento; Inversión; Capacidad producción; Productividad; Reducción costo; Coste producción; Coste energía; Simulación; Modelo econométrico; Optimización económica; Minimización costo; Australia LO : INIST-16417.354000106832830020 568/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0138346 INIST ET : China's rural electrification and poverty reduction AU : MING YANG AF : Energy Economics and Technology (EET), 12 Kiah Street/Glen Waverley 3150, Vic./Australie (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2003; Vol. 31; No. 3; Pp. 283-295; Bibl. 9 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper aims at quantifying the impact of rural investment in power sector on the rural economic development and poverty reduction in China. An econometric model was developed and six Chinese provinces with different economic background are studied. These provinces comprise Jiangsu and Liaoning with well-developed rural economy, Hebei and Henan with medium-developed rural economy, and Shannxi and Xinjiang with the least-developed rural economy. Over 20-yr historical data for the six provincial rural areas, was collected in rural economic development, households, population, per capita income, community infrastructure development, capital investment, electricity consumption, output values in agriculture sector, and township and village enterprises. SPSS V10.0 software program was used in the research. This paper concludes that priority of capital investment in rural power sector should be given to Jiangsu and Liaoning if the objective of the investment is to develop rural economy, and that the priority should be given to Hebei and Henan if the objective is to reduce poverty in rural area. CC : 001D06A01B; 001D06A01C4; 230 FD : Politique énergétique; Politique économique; Electrification; Zone rurale; Echelon régional; Consommation électricité; Secteur secondaire; Secteur domestique; Investissement; Impact économique; Développement économique; Pauvreté; Revenu individuel; Simulation; Analyse régression; Modèle économétrique; Chine; Jiangsu; Liaoning; Hebei; Henan; Shannxi; Xinjiang; Programme SPSS V10.0 FG : Asie ED : Energy policy; Economic policy; Electrification; Rural area; Regional scope; Electric power consumption; Secondary sector; Residential sector; Investment; Economic impact; Economic development; Poverty; Personal income; Simulation; Regression analysis; Econometric model; China EG : Asia SD : Política energética; Política económica; Electrificación; Zona rural; Escalón regional; Consumo electricidad; Sector secundario; Sector doméstico; Inversión; Impacto económico; Desarrollo económico; Pobreza; Renta personal; Simulación; Análisis regresión; Modelo econométrico; China LO : INIST-16417.354000106832830060 569/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0111799 INIST ET : Parental bereavement: heterogeneous impacts of AIDS in Thailand AU : WACHTER (Kenneth W.); KNODEL (John E.); VANLANDINGHAM (Mark) AF : Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, 2232 Piedmont Avenue/Berkeley, CA 94720-2120/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Population Studies Center University of Michigan/Ann Arbor, MI 48104/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University/New Orleans, LA 70112/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2003; Vol. 112; No. 1; Pp. 193-206; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : Over the coming decades in Thailand, aging parents whose adult children sicken with AIDS will bear burdens of caregiving and loss. Using demographic microsimulation, we show that the new, lower projections of the HIV/AIDS epidemic still imply that 8% of Thais over the age of 50 in 1995 will lose one or more children to AIDS before their own deaths. The proportion of all losses which are multiple losses can vary from 12% to 33% under a range of assumptions about plausible family-to-family heterogeneity in risks of infection. CC : 001A02H02N4; 001A02H02N2 FD : Econométrie; Méthode statistique; SIDA; Thaïlande; Effet hétérogène; Démographie; Epidémie; Science médicale; Microsimulation; Perte parentale; Enfant adulte FG : Virose; Infection; Asie ED : Econometrics; Statistical method; AIDS; Thailand; Heterogeneous effects; Demography; Epidemic; Medical science; Microsimulation; Parental bereavement; Adult children EG : Viral disease; Infection; Asia SD : Econometría; Método estadístico; SIDA; Tailandia; Demografía; Epidemia; Ciencia Medica LO : INIST-16460.354000106708920050 570/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0096130 INIST ET : Access to and competition between airports: a case study for the San Francisco Bay area AU : PELS (Eric); NIJKAMP (Peter); RIETVELD (Piet) AF : Department of Regional Economics, Free University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105/1081 HV Amsterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Etude de cas, cas et faits cliniques; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice; ISSN 0965-8564; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2003; Vol. 37; No. 1; Pp. 71-83; Bibl. 11 ref. LA : Anglais EA : In this paper (nested) logit models that describe the combined access mode-airport-choice are estimated. A three level nested logit model is rejected. A two level nested logit model with the airport choice at the top level and the access mode choice at the lower level is preferred. From the estimation results, it is concluded that business travelers have a higher value of time than leisure travelers. In the (conditional) access mode choice, leisure travelers have a higher access cost elasticity (in absolute value), while business travelers have a higher access time elasticity (in absolute value). In general, access time is of large importance in the competition between airports in a region. CC : 001D15B; 001D15I FD : Economie transport; Concurrence économique; Aéroport; Etude cas; Californie; Simulation numérique; Modèle logit; Modèle économétrique; Enquête opinion; Critère décision; Elasticité; Accessibilité; Durée trajet; Analyse coût; Modèle choix discret FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Economy of transports; Competition(economy); Airport; Case study; California; Numerical simulation; Logit model; Econometric model; Opinion inquiry; Decision criterion; Elasticity; Accessibility; Travel time; Cost analysis EG : United States; North America; America SD : Economía transporte; Concurrencia económica; Aeropuerto; Estudio caso; California; Simulación numérica; Modelo logit; Modelo econométrico; Encuesta opinión; Criterio decisión; Elasticidad; Accesibilidad; Duración trayecto; Análisis costo LO : INIST-12377A.354000107196400040 571/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0078425 INIST ET : Evaluating the environmental impact of traffic calming AU : GROSSO (Sergio); WRIGHT (Steve); BELL (Michael G. H.) AF : University of Newcastle upon Type/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut.); Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine/Royaume-Uni (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Traffic engineering & control; ISSN 0041-0683; Coden TENCA4; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2002; Vol. 43; No. 6; Pp. 238-243; Bibl. 34 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper demonstrates the use of the microscopic simulator VISSIM (PTV AG) to assess traffic calming schemes. The test site chosen is Sherbum-in-Elmet in Yorkshire, where traffic calming measures were planned and a public consuitation held at the end of 1999. Through the EnvPro program, developed by PTV AG in collaboration with the Transport Operations Research Group (TORG) of the University of Newcastle upon Tyne, estimates of noise and pollution were generated from step-by-step information on position, speed, and acceleration as output by VISSIM. The paper illustrates two important features of microsimulation that make it appealing for analysing the impact of traffic calming: a more comprehensive representation of speed profiles and 3D visualisation of the traffic scene. The 'trial and error' approach to traffic management is wasteful when resources are scarce. As this paper shows, the effects of speed reduction on vehicle emissions and noise can be contradictory, so a thorough analysis of the options and outcomes should be undertaken when proposals are evaluated. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Gestion trafic; Limitation vitesse; Evaluation projet; Impact environnement; Simulateur; Royaume Uni; Modélisation; Nuisance acoustique; Bruit trafic; Sécurité trafic; Prévention accident; Régulation trafic; Pollution; Représentation tridimensionnelle FG : Europe ED : Road traffic; Traffic management; Speed limit; Project evaluation; Environment impact; Simulator; United Kingdom; Modeling; Noise pollution; Traffic noise; Traffic safety; Accident prevention; Traffic control; Pollution; Three dimensional representation EG : Europe SD : Tráfico carretera; Gestión tráfico; Limitación velocidad; Evaluación proyecto; Impacto medio ambiente; Simulador; Reino Unido; Modelización; Nocividad acústica; Ruido tráfico; Seguridad tráfico; Prevención accidente; Regulación tráfico; Polución; Representación tridimensional LO : INIST-13729.354000106521890070 572/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0070493 INIST ET : Using BDI agents to improve driver modelling in a commuter scenario AU : ROSSETTI (Rosaldo J. F.); BORDINI (Rafael H.); BAZZAN (Ana L. C.); BAMPI (Sergio); RONGHUI LIU; VAN VLIET (Dirck); SCHLEIFFER (Ralf) AF : Instituto de Informática, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Av. Bento Gonçalves 9500, CP 15064/91501-970, Porto Alegre-RS/Brésil (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.); Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds/Leeds LS2 9JT/Royaume-Uni (5 aut., 6 aut.); German Aerospace Center, Transport Research, Porz-Wahnheide, Linde Hoehe/51147 Cologne/Allemagne (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part C, Emerging technologies; ISSN 0968-090X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2002; Vol. 10; No. 5-6; Pp. 373-398; Bibl. 24 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The use of multi-agent systems to model and to simulate real systems consisting of intelligent entities capable of autonomously co-operating with each other has emerged as an important field of research. This has been applied to a variety of areas, such as social sciences, engineering, and mathematical and physical theories. In this work, we address the complex task of modelling drivers' behaviour through the use of agent-based techniques. Contemporary traffic systems have experienced considerable changes in the last few years, and the rapid growth of urban areas has challenged scientific and technical communities. Influencing drivers' behaviour appears as an alternative to traditional approaches to cope with the potential problem of traffic congestion, such as the physical modification of road infrastructures and the improvement of control systems. It arises as one of the underlying ideas of intelligent transportation systems. In order to offer a good means to evaluate the impact that exogenous information may exert on drivers' decision making, we propose an extension to an existing microscopic simulation model called Dynamic Route Assignment Combining User Learning and microsimulAtion (DRACULA). In this extension, the traffic domain is viewed as a multi-agent world and drivers are endowed with mental attitudes, which allow rational decisions about route choice and departure time. This work is divided into two main parts. The first part describes the original DRACULA framework and the extension proposed to support our agent-based traffic model. The second part is concerned with the reasoning mechanism of drivers modelled by means of a Beliefs, Desires, and Intentions (BDI) architecture. In this part, we use AgentSpeak(L) to specify commuter scenarios and special emphasis is given to departure time and route choices. This paper contributes in that respect by showing a practical way of representing and assessing drivers' behaviour and the adequacy of using AgentSpeak(L) as a modelling language, as it provides clear and elegant specifications of BDI agents. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Système intelligent; Système transport; Simulation numérique; Système multiagent; Scénario; Prise décision; Conduite véhicule; Itinéraire; Architecture système; Modèle microscopique; Système information; DRACULA ED : Road traffic; Intelligent system; Transportation system; Numerical simulation; Multiagent system; Script; Decision making; Vehicle driving; Route; System architecture; Microscopic model; Information system SD : Tráfico carretera; Sistema inteligente; Sistema de transporte; Simulación numérica; Sistema multiagente; Argumento; Toma decision; Conducción vehículo; Itinerario; Arquitectura sistema; Modelo microscópico; Sistema información LO : INIST-12377C.354000106874580040 573/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0062953 INIST ET : External bootstrap tests for parameter stability AU : DELGADO (Miguel A.); FITENI (Inmaculada) AF : Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Madrid 126-128/28903 GETAFE Madrid/Espagne (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2002; Vol. 109; No. 2; Pp. 275-303; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : This article considers tests for parameter stability over time in general econometric models, possibly nonlinear-in-variables. Existing test statistics are commonly not asymptotically pivotal under nonstandard conditions. In such cases, the external bootstrap tests proposed in this paper are appealing from a practical viewpoint. We propose to use bootstrap versions of the asymptotic critical values based on a first-order asymptotic expansion of the test statistics under the null hypothesis, which consists of a linear transformation of the unobserved &dquot;innovations&dquot; partial sum process. The nature of these transformations under nonstandard conditions is discussed for the main testing principles. Also, we investigate the small sample performance of the proposed bootstrap tests by means of a small Monte Carlo experiment. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02H02G; 001A02H02H; 001A02H02I FD : Méthode jackknife; Méthode rééchantillonnage; Sciences économiques; Econométrie; Comportement asymptotique; Estimation statistique; Estimation non paramétrique; Analyse multivariable; Distribution statistique; Théorie approximation; Processus empirique; Bootstrap; Stabilité; Test statistique; Simulation; Méthode Monte Carlo; Somme partielle; Petit échantillon; Fonction poids; Test Cramer von Mises; Valeur propre; Test Wald; Transformation linéaire; Processus innovation; Modèle économétrique; Modèle non linéaire; Méthode statistique; Approximation asymptotique; Valeur critique; Développement asymptotique; Test hypothèse; 62F40; 62P20; 62F05; 62F03; 62G10; 62H15; 62E17; Estimation paramétrique; Développement mathématique; Stabilité structurelle ED : Jackknife method; Resampling method; Economics; Econometrics; Asymptotic behavior; Statistical estimation; Non parametric estimation; Multivariate analysis; Statistical distribution; Approximation theory; Empirical process; Bootstrap; Stability; Statistical test; Simulation; Monte Carlo method; Partial sum; Small sample; Weight function; Cramer von Mises test; Eigenvalue; Wald test; Linear transformation; Innovation process; Econometric model; Non linear model; Statistical method; Asymptotic approximation; Critical value; Asymptotic expansion; Hypothesis test; Mathematical expansion; Structural stability SD : Método jackknife; Ciencias económicas; Econometría; Comportamiento asintótico; Estimación estadística; Estimación no paramétrica; Análisis multivariable; Distribución estadística; Proceso empírico; Bootstrap; Estabilidad; Test estadístico; Simulación; Método Monte Carlo; Suma parcial; Pequeña muestra; Función peso; Test Cramer von Mises; Valor propio; Test Wald; Transformación lineal; Proceso innovación; Modelo econométrico; Modelo no lineal; Método estadístico; Aproximación asintótica; Valor crítico; Desarrollo asintótico; Test hipótesis LO : INIST-16460.354000104430190030 574/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0062549 INIST ET : Superconsistent estimation and inference in structural econometric models using extreme order statistics AU : DONALD (Stephen G.); PAARSCH (Harry J.) AF : Department of Economics, University of Texas/TX 78712/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Economics, University of Iowa/lowa City, IA 52242-1000/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2002; Vol. 109; No. 2; Pp. 305-340; Bibl. 23 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Data-generating processes whose distributions' supports depend on unknown parameters arise naturally in empirical applications. In such situations the maximum-likelihood estimator is often difficult to calculate and usually has a nonstandard limiting distribution that depends on nuisance parameters. We propose an alternative estimation strategy that is typically simpler to implement than the likelihood approach and allows one to conduct inference using simulation methods. Our proposed estimators are based on the analog estimation principle and bear a striking resemblance to generalized method-of-moments estimators, although here the estimators are generally parameter consistent at rate T rather than the usual rate . CC : 001A02H02F; 001A02H02N2 FD : Sciences économiques; Econométrie; Distribution statistique; Théorie approximation; Maximum vraisemblance; Consistance; Méthode moment; Moment statistique; Estimateur convergent; Fonction vraisemblance; Estimation statistique; Modèle structure; Modèle économétrique; Méthode statistique; Fonction répartition; Loi limite; Paramètre nuisance; Implémentation; 62P20; 62E17 ED : Economics; Econometrics; Statistical distribution; Approximation theory; Maximum likelihood; Consistency; Moment method; Statistical moment; Consistent estimator; Likelihood function; Statistical estimation; Structural model; Econometric model; Statistical method; Distribution function; Limit distribution; Nuisance parameter; Implementation SD : Ciencias económicas; Econometría; Distribución estadística; Maxima verosimilitud; Consistencia; Método momento; Momento estadístico; Estimador convergente; Función verosimilitud; Estimación estadística; Modelo estructura; Modelo econométrico; Método estadístico; Función distribución; Ley límite; Parámetro daño; Ejecución LO : INIST-16460.354000104430190040 575/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0034303 INIST ET : Domestic Water demand forecasting: A static microsimulation approach AU : WILLIAMSON (P.); MITCHELL (G.); MCDONALD (A. T.) AF : Department of Geography, University of Liverpool/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.); School of Geography, University of Leeds/Leeds/Royaume-Uni (2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management; ISSN 1360-4015; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2002; Vol. 16; No. 4; Pp. 243-248; Bibl. 28 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Planning the provision of a future water supply depends upon forecasts of likely demand. Existing forecasting techniques suffer from a lack of spatially relevant information on likely trends in the micro-components of demand. At a sub-regional level, current approaches also understate between-area variability. A static micro-simulation model is described, which makes more efficient use of existing data in producing forecasts of domestic water consumption. Spatially detailed synthetic microdata are reweighted towards level population estimates which are derived from official Government population projections. A 30% increase in domestic consumption between 1991 and 2025 is forecast for the Yorkshire Water region, three-quarters of which is attributable to changes in consumer behaviour. CC : 001D16A02; 001D14J01; 295 FD : Eau potable; Approvisionnement eau; Eau ménagère; Demande; Prévision; Royaume Uni; Consommation eau; Modélisation; Simulation FG : Europe ED : Drinking water; Water supply; Domestic water; Demand; Forecasting; United Kingdom; Water consumption; Modeling; Simulation EG : Europe SD : Agua potable; Alimentación agua; Agua residual; Petición; Previsión; Reino Unido; Consumo agua; Modelización; Simulación LO : INIST-1042.354000106789600010 576/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0014073 INIST ET : Quantile regression under random censoring AU : HONORE (Bo); KHAN (Shakeeb); POWELL (James L.) AF : Department of Economics, Princeton University/Princeton, NJ 08544-1021/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Economics, University of Rochester/Rochester, NY 14627/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Department of Economics, University of California/Berkeley, CA 94720-3880/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2002; Vol. 109; No. 1; Pp. 67-105; Bibl. 2 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : Censored regression models have received a great deal of attention in both the theoretical and applied econometric literature. Most of the existing estimation procedures for either cross-sectional or panel data models are designed only for models with fixed censoring. In this paper, a new procedure for adapting these estimators designed for fixed censoring to models with random censoring is proposed. This procedure is then applied to the CLAD and quantile estimators of Powell (J. Econom. 25 (1984) 303, 32 (1986a) 143) to obtain an estimator of the coefficients under a mild conditional quantile restriction on the error term that is applicable to samples exhibiting fixed or random censoring. The resulting estimator is shown to have desirable asymptotic properties, and performs well in a small-scale simulation study. CC : 001A02H02J FD : Régression; Quantile; Donnée censurée; Estimateur Kaplan Meier; Analyse dommage; Temps; Taux défaillance; Censure; Fonction survie; Minimisation; Régularité; Convergence uniforme; Equation estimatrice; Grand échantillon; Méthode Monte Carlo; Simulation; Echelle petite; Matrice covariance; Estimation erreur; Régression statistique; Caractère aléatoire; Echantillon censuré; Modèle régression; Modèle économétrique; Econométrie; Estimation statistique; Modèle donnée; 62N01; 62P20; Estimateur quantile ED : Regression; Quantile; Censored data; Kaplan Meier estimator; Failure analysis; Time; Failure rate; Censorship; Survival function; Minimization; Regularity; Uniform convergence; Estimating equation; Large sample; Monte Carlo method; Simulation; Small scale; Covariance matrix; Error estimation; Statistical regression; Randomness; Censored sample; Regression model; Econometric model; Econometrics; Statistical estimation; Data models; Quantile estimator SD : Regresión; Cuantila; Estimador Kaplan Meier; Análisis avería; Tiempo; Porcentaje falla; Censura; Función sobrevivencia; Minimización; Regularidad; Convergencia uniforme; Ecuación de estimación; Método Monte Carlo; Simulación; Escala pequeña; Matriz covariancia; Estimación error; Regresión estadística; Muestra censurada; Modelo regresión; Modelo econométrico; Econometría; Estimación estadística LO : INIST-16460.354000100966350030 577/793 NO : PASCAL 03-0013898 INIST ET : Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models AU : JUSHAN BAI; NG (Serena) AF : Dept. of Economics, Boston College/Chestnut Hill, MA 02467/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Dept. of Economics, Johns Hopkins University/Baltimore, MD 21218/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Econometrica; ISSN 0012-9682; Coden ECMTA7; Etats-Unis; Da. 2002; Vol. 70; No. 1; Pp. 191-221; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : In this paper we develop some econometric theory for factor models of large dimensions. The focus is the determination of the number of factors (r), which is an unresolved issue in the rapidly growing literature on multifactor models. We first establish the convergence rate for the factor estimates that will allow for consistent estimation of r. We then propose some panel criteria and show that the number of factors can be consistently estimated using the criteria. The theory is developed under the framework of large cross-sections (N) and large time dimensions (T). No restriction is imposed on the relation between N and T. Simulations show that the proposed criteria have good finite sample properties in many configurations of the panel data encountered in practice. CC : 001A02H02I; 001A02E18 FD : Analyse factorielle; Fixation prix; Analyse composante principale; Econométrie; Théorie; Demande; Optimisation; Simulation; Théorie approximation; Modèle économétrique; Grande dimension; Convergence; Taux convergence; Estimation statistique; Estimateur convergent; 62P20; Echantillon fini; Application empirique ED : Factor analysis; Pricing; Principal component analysis; Econometrics; Theory; Demand; Optimization; Simulation; Approximation theory; Econometric model; Large dimension; Convergence; Convergence rate; Statistical estimation; Consistent estimator; Finite sample; Empirical application SD : Análisis factorial; Análisis componente principal; Econometría; Teoría; Petición; Optimización; Simulación; Modelo econométrico; Gran dimensión; Convergencia; Relación convergencia; Estimación estadística; Estimador convergente LO : INIST-2069.354000100233160060 578/793 NO : FRANCIS 531-03-13802 PRODIG-INTERGEO ET : Microsimulation of neighborhood evacuations in the urban-wildland interface AU : COVA (T.J.); JOHNSON (J.P.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Environment and planning. A; ISSN 0308-518X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2002; Vol. 34; No. 12; Pp. 2211-2229; Abs. anglais; Bibl. 41 ref.; 11 fig., 1 tabl. LA : Anglais EA : The AA. present a method for using microscopic traffic simulation to develop and test neighborhood evacuation plans in the urban-wildland interface. The method allows an analyst to map the subneighborhood variation in household evacuation travel times under various scenarios. A case study is presented for a controversial fire-prone canyon community east of Salt Lake City. GIS is used to map the spatial effects of a proposed second access road on household evacuation times CC : 531123; 531 FD : Sécurité; Quartier; Risque; Feu; Transport urbain; Evacuation; Trafic urbain; Simulation; Choix spatial ED : Security; Urban district; Risk; Fire; Urban transport; Urban traffic; Simulation; Spatial choice LO : INIST-15583 A 579/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-03-12088 INIST FT : La taxe d'habitation : une analyse des modifications introduites en 2000 à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation INES ET : (The dwelling tax : an analysis of the changes introduced with INES microsimulation system) AU : FUGAZZA (Marco); LE MINEZ (Sylvie) AF : Ministère des Affaires sociales, du travail et de la solidarité, Ministère de la Santé, de la famille et des personnes handicapées, DREES/France (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Dossiers solidarité et santé; ISSN 1296-2120; France; Da. 2002; No. 2; Pp. 21-31 LA : Français FA : La taxe d'habitation a été réformée en 2000. Cet impôt local est d'abord assis sur la valeur locative des logements. Il est ensuite modulé suivant le revenu et la composition des ménages par des dégrèvements pris en charge par le budget de l'État. Les modifications introduites en 2000 ont simplifié et accru ces dégrèvements, et la taxe nette directement payée par le redevable local est désormais plus faible, et surtout davantage liée au revenu des ménages. Ces allégements sont toutefois compensés par le budget de l'État et l'étude menée ici à l'aide du modèle de simulation INES, qui ne prend pas en compte le mode de financement de cette imposition ne porte que sur les effets directs des modifications de la taxe d'habitation sur les contribuables locaux. Les estimations réalisées font état d'une baisse moyenne de la taxe d'habitation nette de 19 % et de l'instauration d'une meilleure progressivité au regard du niveau de vie des redevables : la taxe d'habitation versée par les ménages passe ainsi en 2000 de 0,1 % des revenus fiscaux dans le premier décile des niveaux de vie à 2 % du sixième au neuvième décile; elle repasse néanmoins à 1,4 % en moyenne dans le dixième décile, la valeur locative du logement, moins progressive, prenant une importance accrue à ces niveaux de revenus CC : 52146A; 521 FD : Impôt local; Logement; Fiscalité; Réforme; Ménage; Statistiques; France; Taxe d'habitation ED : Local Taxes; Accomodation; Fiscal System; Reform; Household; Statistics; France LO : INIST-26465.354000108787840020 580/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-03-10455 INIST FT : Les modèles socio-économiques de microsimulation : Panorama et état des lieux pour la France : Evaluer les politiques familiales et sociales. MYRIADE, un outil de microsimulation à la CNAF ET : (Socio-economic models of microsimulation: overview in France : The microsimulation) AU : LEGENDRE (Francais); LORGNET (Jean-Paul); THIBAULT (Forence) AF : Laboratoire Erudite (Equipe de recherche sur l'utilisation des données individuelles et temporelles en économie - université Paris-XII) et CNAF - Bureau des Prévisions/France (1 aut.); CNAF - Bureau des Prévisions/France (2 aut.); CNAF - Bureau des Prévisions et Laboratoire CEPN (université Paris-XIII et CNRS)/France (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Recherches et prévisions : (Paris); ISSN 1149-1590; France; Da. 2001; No. 66; Pp. 11-31; Bibl. 2 p.1/2 LA : Français FA : L'objet de cet article est de présenter les modèles socio-économiques de microsimulation. Les auteurs détaillent les principes mis en oeuvre dans ce type d'outil et exposent les principaux modèles existant actuellement en France. Est également passée en revue une sélection de questions qui peuvent être adressées à ces modèles. Le lecteur peut ainsi être en mesure d'apprécier l'état de l'art dans ce domaine et se faire une idée plus précise des avantages et des limites de ces méthodes. Cependant, l'article s'intéresse avant tout aux outils dont l'ambition est de décrire, plus ou moins globalement, le système des prélèvements obligatoires et des transferts sociaux. Ne sont pas évoqués les outils développés pour les besoins de thèmes plus spécifiques tels que l'économie de la santé ou l'économie du droit CC : 5218; 521 FD : Modèle; Informatique; Méthodologie; Redistribution; Revenu; Ménage; Classification; Statistique ED : Model; Computer Science; Methodology; Redistribution; Income; Household; Classification; Statistics LO : INIST-22918.354000100399650010 581/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-03-10447 INIST FT : Explorations autour de l'allocation familiale unique. Substituer une seule prestation aux prestations d'entretien des enfants existantes : Evaluer les politiques familiales et sociales. MYRIADE, un outil de microsimulation à la CNAF ET : (Examination about one family allowance. To sustitute only one social benefit to inexistant children care social benefits : The microsimulation) AU : LEGENDRE (Francois); LORGNET (Jean-Paul); THIBAULT (Florence) AF : Laboratoire Erudite (Equipe de recherche sur l'utilisation des données individuelles et temporelles en économie - université Paris-XII) et CNAF - Bureau des Prévisions/France (1 aut.); CNAF - Bureau des Prévisions/France (2 aut.); CNAF - Bureau des Prévisions et Laboratoire CEPN (université Paris-XIII et CNRS)/France (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Recherches et prévisions : (Paris); ISSN 1149-1590; France; Da. 2001; No. 66; Pp. 71-94; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Français FA : Cette étude se propose de fondre les barèmes des cinq allocations d'entretien des enfants (allocations familiales, majorations des allocations familiales, allocation pour jeune enfant, complément familial et allocation de rentrée scolaire) en un barème unique et, en conséquence, de substituer une seule prestation - que l'on appellera « allocation familiale unique » - à toutes celles versées actuellement. Les objectifs de la politique familiale française ne sont cependant pas remis en cause : la question traitée ici est celle de la simplification des barèmes. Certaines singularités de la réglementation actuelle sont toutefois « corrigées ». Les paramètres du nouveau barème sont calculés au moyen d'une méthode d'ajustement économétrique qui permet de limiter les inévitables transferts de prestations qu'engendrerait cette entreprise et de respecter l'enveloppe financière actuellement assignée aux prestations d'entretien. La mise en place de l'allocation familiale unique coûterait- pour n'occasionner aucun perdant - 525 millions d'euros la première année. Le coût des prestations d'entretien augmenterait de 45 millions d'euros et le montant de l'allocation compensatrice, versée aux familles qui perdraient à la réforme, s'élèverait à 480 millions d'euros. CC : 52163; 521 FD : Allocations familiales; Politique familiale; Prestation sociale; Famille; Revenu; Redistribution; Sociologie de la famille ED : Family allowance; Family Policy; Social Allowance; Family; Income; Redistribution; Sociology of family LO : INIST-22918.354000100399650040 582/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-03-10446 INIST FT : La redistribution au bénéfice des familles : l'apport du modèle MYRIADE : Evaluer les politiques familiales et sociales. MYRIADE, un outil de microsimulation à la CNAF ET : (Redistribution for family benefit: support of MYRIADE model : The microsimulation) AU : LEGENDRE (Francois); LORGNET (Jean-Paul); THIBAULT (Florence) AF : Laboratoire Erudite (Equipe de recherche sur l'utilisation des données individuelles et temporelles en économie - université Paris-XII) et CNAF - Bureau des Prévisions/France (1 aut.); CNAF - Bureau des Prévisions/France (2 aut.); CNAF - Bureau des Prévisions et Laboratoire CEPN (université Paris-XIII et CNRS)/France (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Recherches et prévisions : (Paris); ISSN 1149-1590; France; Da. 2001; No. 66; Pp. 51-69; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Français FA : Par les charges qu'elle occasionne, la présence des enfants tend à réduire le niveau de vie des familles. La collectivité compense en partie ces charges par le biais de prestations familiales et/ou de réductions d'impôts. Cette étude, réalisée à partir du modèle de microsimulation MYRIADE, s'attache à décrire ces transferts au bénéfice des familles, sans prétendre traiter de l'adéquation entre ces transferts et les dépenses dues à la présence des enfants. Le champ retenu est large quoique limité aux flux monétaires : les prestations familiales, les allocations logement, les minima sociaux, l'impôt sur le revenu et la taxe d'habitation. Afin de mieux caractériser cette redistribution, une méthodologie particulière a été adoptée. Plutôt que de calculer la différence entre le revenu disponible de chaque famille et son revenu primaire, les auteurs ont isolé la variation du revenu disponible que l'on peut attribuer au benjamin dans chaque famille comptant au moins un enfant de moins de vingt-cinq ans. Cette variation de revenu disponible occasionnée par la présence du benjamin est en moyenne de 200 euros par mois. Elle est par ailleurs largement déterminée par le rang du benjamin et par son âge. CC : 52163; 521 FD : Prestation sociale; Simulation; Famille; Allocations familiales; Redistribution; Revenu; Sociologie de la famille; Enfant ED : Social Allowance; Simulation; Family; Family allowance; Redistribution; Income; Sociology of family; Child LO : INIST-22918.354000100399650030 583/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-03-10445 INIST FT : MYRIADE : le modèle de microsimulation de la CNAF. Un outil d'évaluation des politiques sociales : Evaluer les politiques familiales et sociales. MYRIADE, un outil de microsimulation à la CNAF ET : (MYRIADE: the model of microsimulation of National Fund for Family Allowance. A evaluation tool of social policies : The microsimulation) AU : LEGENDRE (Francois); LORGNET (Jean-Paul); THIBAULT (Florence) AF : Laboratoire Erudite (Equipe de recherche sur l'utilisation des données individuelles et temporelles en économie - université Paris-XII) et CNAF - Bureau des Prévisions/France (1 aut.); CNAF - Bureau des Prévisions/France (2 aut.); CNAF - Bureau des Prévisions et Laboratoire CEPN (université Paris-XIII et CNRS)/France (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Recherches et prévisions : (Paris); ISSN 1149-1590; France; Da. 2001; No. 66; Pp. 33-50; Bibl. 18 ref. LA : Français FA : Myriade est le modèle de microsimulation en cours de développement à la Caisse nationale des allocations familiales (CNAF). Avec cet outil, la branche Famille améliore ses possibilités d'études, de prévisions et de chiffrages. En effet, les autres sources statistiques dont elle dispose sont représentatives de la population des allocataires et fournissent une information détaillée pour chacun d'eux. Cependant, ces caractéristiques posent parfois problème, notamment lorsqu'il s'agit d'étudier la mise en place d'une nouvelle prestation ou la modification de la législation dans le sens d'un élargissement du champ des bénéficiaires. MYRIADE évite ces difficultés car il est représentatif de l'ensemble des ménages de la France métropolitaine. L'apport de MYRIADE est de trois ordres : un chiffrage peut être fait en prenant en compte l'ensemble des ménages français ; chaque individu peut être localisé à la fois dans un ménage, un foyer fiscal ou une famille ; MYRIADE permet de distinguer les conséquences fiscales et sociales d'une mesure. CC : 5218; 521 FD : Allocations familiales; Simulation; Modèle; Outil; Méthodologie; Fiscalité; Revenu; Redistribution ED : Family allowance; Simulation; Model; Tool; Methodology; Fiscal System; Income; Redistribution LO : INIST-22918.354000100399650020 584/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0599287 INIST FT : Choix des filières non alimentaires fondés sur la prise en compte d'objectifs économiques hiérarchisés et sur l'utilisation de données agricoles spatialisées ET : (Selection of non-food industries based upon hierarchical economic objectives and geographical agricultural data) AF : Agence de l'environnement et de la maîtrise de l'énergie/Paris/France (patr.); Institut national de la recherche agronomique. Bioclimatologie/Thiverval-Grignon/France; INRA. Ecophysiologie des plantes fourragères/Lusignan/France; INRA. Science du sol/Versailles/France; Chambre régionale d'agriculture Poitou-Charentes. Agro-transfert/Mignaloux Beauvoir/France; University of Texas. Department of management science/Austin TX/Etats-Unis; INRA. Economie et sociologie rurales/Thiverval-Grignon/France DT : Rapport; Niveau monographique SO : Choix des filières non alimentaires fondés sur la prise en compte d'objectifs économiques hiérarchisés et sur l'utilisation de données agricoles spatialisées; France; Da. 1999; ADEME/94-01-0060; Pp. 18 p. LA : Français FA : Ce travail est le résultat d'une collaboration : L'INRA Bioclimatologie d'Avignon, l'INRA Ecophysiologie de Lusignan, Agro-Transfert de la Chambre d'agriculture de Poitou-Charentes, le département AGER de l'INA-PG ont montré, en utilisant un système d'information géographique (SIG) qu'il était possible : 1) de repérer les régions françaises les plus favorables à la production d'une culture lignocellulosique donnée. 2) d'estimer pour une région administrative la distribution spatiale des données techniques (rendement) et économiques (charges variables) nécessaires au calcul des coûts d'opportunité par exploitation agricole. L'exercice a été réalisé en prenant l'exemple du sorgho fibre en région Poitou Charentes, pour lequel l'INRA a établi et validé un modèle de production prenant en compte le stress hydrique. Le rendement du Sorgho fibre et sa variabilité ont été estimés par une simulation portant sur une période de 24 ans. Le rendement moyen du sorgho fibre a été estimé à 8,8 tonnes de matière sèche compte tenu d'une récolte précoce, en sec, qui minimise les coûts d'opportunité. L'INRA économie de Grignon a mis au point un modèle d'offre qui grâce aux données précédentes permet des simulations de l'offre de Sorgho au niveau de la région Poitou Charentes. L'offre démarre à un coût d'opportunité de 100 F par tonne de matière sèche (récolte en sec au 1er Septembre,stockage au champ) pour les exploitations les plus efficientes de Poitou Charentes et atteint son potentiel (100% de la jachère cultivée) pour un coût d'opportunité de 300 F par tonne de matière sèche. L'INRA économie de Grignon a montré l'importance de la notion de surplus économique qui est un critère essentiel pour étudier la rentabilité d'une filière. En particulier, le surplus des producteurs agricoles qui résulte de l'inégale efficacité de la production selon les exploitations, a été calculé. Ce surplus peut justifier 15 à 20% de la défiscalisation dans le cas de l'ester. Cette notion économique doit donc intervenir dans les calculs visant à montrer l'intérêt public des biocarburants au même titre que les externalités. J Bard de l'université A&M du Texas a mis au point une méthode d'optimisation de la répartition des aides de l'Etat entre les filières compte tenu des coûts industriels et des coûts agricoles des ressources dans le cadre d'un fonctionnement imparfait des marchés. Cette optimisation en améliorant l'efficacité économique des aides accordées, réduit d'autant la part des aides à justifier par des externalités environnementales. Ce travail à caractère méthodologique doit être considéré comme un investissement pour les études économiques dont on aura besoin dans le futur où se poseront des problèmes de localisation des productions non alimentaires, de compétition entre biomasses alimentaires et non alimentaires et de choix de technologie. CC : 430A02B; 002A32A04; 002A32C03A4 FD : Aménagement territoire; Développement régional; Développement agricole; Développement industriel; Industrie agricole; Production agricole; Méthodologie; Aide décision; Problème sélection; Répartition géographique; Répartition spatiale; Système hiérarchisé; Système information géographique; Utilisation information; Donnée économique; Coût production; Rendement; Rentabilité; Surplus; Stress hydrique; Modèle économétrique; Fonction production; Plante à fibres; Sorghum; Biocarburant; Fibre végétale; Lignocellulose; France; Poitou Charentes; Etude économique; INDUSTRIE NON ALIMENTAIRE; LOCALISATION DES PRODUCTIONS; ZONE AGROCLIMATIQUE FG : Agroclimatologie; Economie mathématique; Economie agricole; Economie industrielle; Economie marché; Matière première; Produit agricole; Pays industrialisé; Zone tempérée ED : Agricultural industry; Decision aid; Selection problem; Geographic distribution; Spatial distribution; Hierarchical system; Geographic information system; Information use; Economic data; NON FOOD INDUSTRIES; PRODUCTION LOCATION; AGROCLIMATIC ZONES EG : Mathematical economy; Industrialized country SD : Industria agrícola; Ayuda decisión; Problema selección; Distribución geográfica; Distribución espacial; Sistema jerarquizado; Sistema información geográfica; Utilización información; Dato económico; INDUSTRIA NO ALIMENTARIA; LOCALIZACION DE LA PRODUCCION; ZONAS AGROCLIMATICAS LO : INIST-RP 400 (2359).354000108015880000 585/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0595925 INIST ET : Estimating expected price of vehicles in a transportation microsimulation modeling system AU : MOHAMMADIAN (Abolfazl); MILLER (Eric J.) AF : Dept. of Civil Engineering, California State Univ./Sacramento, CA 95819-6029/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Dept. of Civil Engineering, Univ. of Toronto, 35 St. George St./Toronto, ON, M5S 1A4/Canada (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 2002; Vol. 128; No. 6; Pp. 537-541; Bibl. 20 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Microsimulation modeling is an emerging approach to activity-based travel forecasting. Household automobile-ownership models are being included in microsimulation travel-demand models more. Implicitly, vehicle price is an important attribute of vehicles in all automobile-ownership models. In order to update prices at each point of time within the simulation, a modeling tool is required to estimate the price of each vehicle at any time. This paper develops a hedonic price model to estimate the expected price of vehicles to be used in a comprehensive urban-transportation modeling system. In this study, the use of a linear hedonic price model was investigated in terms of its application to the market price of automobiles. CC : 001D15B; 001D15C FD : Economie transport; Automobile; Simulation numérique; Modèle microscopique; Fixation prix; Détermination prix; Analyse composante principale ED : Economy of transports; Motor car; Numerical simulation; Microscopic model; Pricing; Price determination; Principal component analysis SD : Economía transporte; Automóvil; Simulación numérica; Modelo microscópico; Determinación precio; Análisis componente principal LO : INIST-572E.354000105356240070 586/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0582101 INIST ET : Determinants of price reactions to entry in the U.S. airline industry AU : LIN (Jiun-Sheng Chris); DRESNER (Martin); WINDLE (Robert) AF : College of Management, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology/Taipei, 106/Taïwan (1 aut.); Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland/College Park, Maryland 20742/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation journal; ISSN 0041-1612; Coden TRNJAE; Etats-Unis; Da. 2001; Vol. 41; No. 2-3; Pp. 5-22; Bibl. 24 ref. LA : Anglais EA : An investigation is conducted of the factors contributing to competitive reactions to entry by incumbent airlines both in the short and longer runs. Using data on 889 incumbent reactions to entry in the U.S. airline industry between 1991 and 1997, we found several factors that have a significant impact on the level of incumbent price cuts in response to entry. They include the size of the entrant's price cut, the number of passengers carried by the new entrant on the route, and the entrant's costs, size, and reputation. The results are useful to airline managers and policymakers since they describe the market and firm characteristics that are most likely to lead to large price cuts by incumbents. CC : 001D15I; 001D15B FD : Transport aérien; Economie transport; Etats Unis; Concurrence économique; Pénétration marché; Fixation prix; Entreprise transport; Simulation numérique; Modèle économétrique; Stratégie entreprise; Analyse statistique FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Air transportation; Economy of transports; United States; Competition(economy); Market penetration; Pricing; Transport firm; Numerical simulation; Econometric model; Firm strategy; Statistical analysis EG : North America; America SD : Transporte aéreo; Economía transporte; Estados Unidos; Concurrencia económica; Penetración mercado; Empresa transporte; Simulación numérica; Modelo econométrico; Estrategia empresa; Análisis estadístico LO : INIST-15638.354000102099560010 587/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0491529 INIST ET : Estimation on regional benefit and optimal level of road capital stock AU : EUIJUNE KIM; MYUNGSOO SHIN AF : Dept. of Urban Planning and Engineering, Yonsei Univ., 134 Shinchon-Dong/Seodaemun-Gu, Seoul 120-749/Corée, République de (1 aut.); Real Estate Consulting Team, Korea Appraisal Board, 171-2 Samsung-Dong/Kangnam-Gu, Seoul 135-793/Corée, République de (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of infrastructure systems; ISSN 1076-0342; Coden JITSE4; Etats-Unis; Da. 2002; Vol. 8; No. 3; Pp. 96-102; Bibl. 17 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper measures the regional benefit of road investment in Korea, using the translog cost functions of the manufacturing industry for the four macroregions of Seoul Metropolitan Area, South-Eastern Area, South-Western Area, and Central Area. This paper shows that the road capital contributes significantly to the productivity of the manufacturing industry in the sense that the magnitude of the road capital stock elasticity of the production cost at the national level is - 0.0124. The net social rate of return for all regions is higher than the yield of corporate bonds, which implies that the road capital stock is undersupplied in Korea. The ratio of optimal to actual road capital stock declined from 1986 to 1991, and then increased in all regions except Seoul Metropolitan Area since 1992. In order to generate economic efficiency and regional equality, it is necessary to increase road capital investment in the less developed regions of Korea, such as the South-Western Area and the Central Area. CC : 001D14O03A; 001D14B; 295 FD : Construction routière; Route; Economie construction; Investissement; Impact économique; Fonction coût; Développement régional; Productivité; Produit manufacturé; Industrie; Simulation numérique; Modèle économétrique; Corée du Sud FG : Corée; Asie ED : Road construction; Highway; Building economy; Investment; Economic impact; Cost function; Regional development; Productivity; Manufactured product; Industry; Numerical simulation; Econometric model; South Korea EG : Korea; Asia SD : Construcción carretera; Carretera; Economía construcción; Inversión; Impacto económico; Función coste; Desarrollo regional; Productividad; Producto manufacturado; Industria; Simulación numérica; Modelo econométrico; Corea del sur LO : INIST-26269.354000109130110030 588/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0458535 INIST ET : Can ivermectin mass treatments eliminate onchocerciasis in Africa? AU : WINNEN (M.); PLAISIER (A. P.); ALLEY (E. S.); NAGELKERKE (N. J. D.); VAN OORTMARSSEN (G.); BOATIN (B. A.); HABBEMA (J. D. F.) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmas University, PO Box 1738/3000DR Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut., 7 aut.); Onchocerciasis Control Programme, World Health Organization, BP 549/Ouagadougou/Burkina Faso (3 aut., 6 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Bulletin of the World Health Organization; ISSN 0042-9686; Coden BWHOA6; International; Da. 2002; Vol. 80; No. 5; Pp. 384-390; Abs. français/espagnol; Bibl. 27 ref. LA : Anglais FA : Objectif Déterminer les conditions dans lesquelles le traitement de masse par l'ivermectine réduit suffisamment la transmission d'Onchocerca volvulus pour éliminer l'infection dans une communauté d'Afrique Méthodes ONCHOSIM, un modèle de microsimulation de la transmission de l'onchocercose, a été utilisé pour explorer les répercussions de différents intervalles de traitement, taux de couverture et niveaux d'endémicité avant traitement sur la probabilité d'une élimination de l'infection. Résultats Les simulations ont indiqué que des stratégies de lutte reposant exclusivement sur le e traitement de masse par l'ivermectine pouvaient éliminer l'onchocercose. La durée de traitement nécessaire pour éliminer l'infection dépendait largement du programme appliqué et du niveau d'endémicité avant traitement. Dans les régions ayant un taux d'infection moyen à élevé, des traitements de masse annuels avec un taux de couverture de 65 % pendant 25 ans étaient nécessaires. D'après les prévisions du modèle, des traitements répétés pendant plus de 35 ans seraient nécessaires en cas d'hétérogénéit&ea cute; marquée de l'expositior de la population aux piqûres d'insectes vecteurs et donc de variation importante des numérations de microfilaires au niveau de l'individu. Si les intervalles de traitement étaient de 6 mois au lieu de 12, la durée totale du programme pourrait être divisée par deux au moins et 'élimination pourrait être réalisée dans des régions d'hyperendémicité, à condition que l'effet de chaque traitement soit le même qu'en cas de traitement annuel. Il était toutefois douteux qu'un taux élevé de couverture puisse être maintenu assez longtemps pour atteindre l'éradication mondiale. Conclusion L'élimination de l'onchocercose dans la plupart des foyers d'endémie en Afrique semble possible. Toutefois, les exigences en termes de durée, de couverture et de fréquence du traitement peuvent être prohibitives dans les régions de forte endémicité. CC : 002B02S06; 235 FD : Onchocercose; Homme; Traitement; Ivermectine; Chimiothérapie; Campagne de masse; Lutte sanitaire; Epidémiologie; Afrique; Antiparasitaire; Antihelminthique FG : Filariose; Nématodose; Helminthiase; Parasitose; Infection; Peau pathologie; Oeil pathologie ED : Onchocerciasis; Human; Treatment; Ivermectin; Chemotherapy; Mass campaign; Sanitary control; Epidemiology; Africa; Parasiticid EG : Filariosis; Nematode disease; Helminthiasis; Parasitosis; Infection; Skin disease; Eye disease SD : Oncocercosis; Hombre; Tratamiento; Ivermectina; Quimioterapia; Campaña de población; Lucha sanitaria; Epidemiología; Africa; Antiparasitario LO : INIST-4905A.354000108198460070 589/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0447264 INIST ET : Transportation planning and TRANSIMS microsimulation model: Preparing for the transition AU : RILETT (L. R.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering and Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System/College Station, TX 77843/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2001; No. 1777; Pp. 84-92; Bibl. 16 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The Transportation Analysis and Simulation System (TRANSIMS) was developed as a replacement for the four-step travel demand model. The goal was to provide a simulation system that could analyze issues facing transportation planners such as sustainable development, environmental impacts of proposed projects, and intelligent transportation systems deployment. Because TRANSIMS represents a significant shift from the current state of the practice, the transportation planning community will need to spend significant human and capital resources preparing for the transition. Some insight into these transitional issues is provided on the basis of lessons learned from research on actual calibrated transportation networks in Texas. An overview of TRANSIMS in terms of its main components along with a brief comparison with the four-step model are supplied, followed by a discussion of the data requirements with specific reference to the current data needs associated with the four-step model. The challenges inherent in converting databases that have been developed for four-step models are also discussed on the basis of the conversion of existing traffic network files. Next, the TRANSIMS traffic flow theory is described, and the challenges for transportation planners are illustrated using calibrated networks from two highway corridors in Houston, Texas, and one diamond interchange network in College Station, Texas. Last, the capabilities of TRANSIMS with respect to output analysis are described. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Planification; Système transport; Simulation numérique; Modèle microscopique; Demande transport; Expérience; Etalonnage; Ecoulement trafic; Théorie; Signalisation; Distribution vitesse; Texas; Congrès international; TRANSIMS FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Planning; Transportation system; Numerical simulation; Microscopic model; Transport demand; Experience; Calibration; Traffic flow; Theory; Signalling; Velocity distribution; Texas; International conference EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transportes; Planificación; Sistema de transporte; Simulación numérica; Modelo microscópico; Demanda transporte; Experiencia; Contraste; Flujo tráfico; Teoría; Señalización; Distribución velocidad; Texas; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-10459B.354000107960440090 590/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0447262 INIST ET : Development of microsimulation activity-based model for San Francisco: Destination and mode choice models AU : JONNALAGADDA (Nageswar); FREEDMAN (Joel); DAVIDSON (William A.); HUNT (J. D.) AF : 3Plex.com, 1001 Massachusetts Avenue/Cambridge, MA 02138/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); PBConsult, 400 SW Sixth Avenue, Suite 802/Portland, OR 97204/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); PBConsult, 303 Second Street, Suite 700 North/San Francisco, CA 94107/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW/Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4/Canada (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2001; No. 1777; Pp. 25-35; Bibl. 6 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A tour-based microsimulation approach to modeling destination choice and mode choice of San Francisco residents is presented. These models were developed as part of an overall tour-based travel demand forecasting model (SF model) for the San Francisco County Transportation Authority to provide detailed forecasts of travel demand for various planning applications. The models described represent two of the nine primary components of the SF model. Both model components consist of multiple logit choice models and include both tour-level models (which refer to the primary activity of the tour) and trip-level models (other activities on the tour). A separate model was estimated for each tour purpose, including work, school, other, and work-based. The destination choice models combine the trip attraction and trip distribution components of the traditional four-step process and use a multinomial logit specification. The mode choice models utilize a nested logit formulation to capture the similarities among sets of similar modes. The two models are linked by incorporating the mode choice utility logsum in the destination choice models; the result is equivalent to a nested structure with a mode choice nest under destination choice. It is demonstrated that the microsimulation approach easily allows the inclusion of a number of key variables in destination and mode choice models that have a significant explanatory power compared with those in traditional models. It is also shown that this approach allows estimation of the effects of tour characteristics on the choice of destination and mode using widely available data and estimation procedures. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Simulation numérique; Activité; Modèle microscopique; Modèle origine destination; Choix modal; Tour itinéraire; Demande transport; Planification; Etude cas; Californie; Modèle logit; Trajet domicile travail; Congrès international FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Numerical simulation; Activity; Microscopic model; Origin destination model; Modal choice; Tour; Transport demand; Planning; Case study; California; Logit model; Travel to work; International conference EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transportes; Simulación numérica; Actividad; Modelo microscópico; Modelo origen destinación; Elección modal; Vuelta; Demanda transporte; Planificación; Estudio caso; California; Modelo logit; Trayecto domicilio trabajo; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-10459B.354000107960440030 591/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0446719 INIST ET : Comprehensive activity travel pattern modeling system for nonworkers with empirical focus on organization of activity episodes AU : BHAT (Chandra); MISRA (Rajul) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Texas at Austin, ECJ 6.806/Austin, TX 78712/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2001; No. 1777; Pp. 16-24; Bibl. 27 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A comprehensive continuous-time framework is proposed for representation and analysis of the activity travel choices of nonworkers. An econometric formulation is also presented for one component of the comprehensive framework that focuses on the organization of activities in the nonworker's daily activity travel pattern. In conclusion, an empirical analysis using activity travel data from the 1990 San Francisco Bay Area travel diary survey is discussed. CC : 001D15B; 001D15A FD : Transports; Mobilité; Activité; Simulation numérique; Modèle économétrique; Critère décision; Itinéraire; Formule mathématique; Etude cas; Californie; Méthode empirique; Estimation paramètre; Modèle Markov; Congrès international FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Mobility; Activity; Numerical simulation; Econometric model; Decision criterion; Route; Mathematical formula; Case study; California; Empirical method; Parameter estimation; Markov model; International conference EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transportes; Movilidad; Actividad; Simulación numérica; Modelo econométrico; Criterio decisión; Itinerario; Fórmula matemática; Estudio caso; California; Método empírico; Estimación parámetro; Modelo Markov; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-10459B.354000107960440020 592/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0431139 INIST ET : Statistical inference in micro-simulation models: incorporating external information AU : KLEVMARKEN (N. Anders); MCALEER (Michael); OXLEY (Les) AF : Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P.O. Box 513/75120 Uppsala/Suède (1 aut.); Department of Economics, Waikato Management School, University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105/Hamilton/Nouvelle-Zélande (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Mathematics and computers in simulation; ISSN 0378-4754; Coden MCSIDR; Pays-Bas; Da. 2002; Vol. 59; No. 1-3; Pp. 255-265; Bibl. 13 ref. LA : Anglais EA : In practical applications of micro-simulation models (MSMs), very little is usually known about the properties of the simulated values. This paper argues that we need to apply the same rigorous standards for inference in micro-simulation work as in scientific work generally. If not, then MSMs will loose in credibility. Differences between inference in static and dynamic models are noted and then the paper focuses on the estimation of behavioral parameters. There are four themes: calibration viewed as estimation subject to external constraints, piece meal versus system-wide estimation, simulation-based estimation and validation. CC : 001D02D06 FD : Simulation ordinateur; Simulation; Validation; Alignement; Estimation; Système dynamique; Inférence; Estimation statistique; Modèle simulation; Modèle dynamique; Estimation paramètre; MSM; Modèle comportemental ED : Computer simulation; Simulation; Validation; Alignment; Estimation; Dynamical system; Inference; Statistical estimation; Simulation model; Dynamic model; Parameter estimation; Microsimulation model; Behavioral model SD : Simulación computadora; Simulación; Validación; Alineamiento; Estimación; Sistema dinámico; Inferencia; Estimación estadística; Modelo simulación; Modelo dinámico; Estimación parámetro LO : INIST-1331.354000101264810250 593/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0422877 INIST ET : Maximisation of gross margin in intensive livestock production AU : MOREL (P. C. H.); ALEXANDER (D. L. J.); SHERRIFF (R. L.); WOOD (G. R.); HERTOG (M.L.A.T.M.); MACKAY (B.R.) AF : Institute of Food, Nutrition and Human Health, Massey University/Palmerston North/Nouvelle-Zélande (1 aut.); Institute of Information Sciences and Technology Massey University/Palmerston North/Nouvelle-Zélande (2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Acta horticulturae; ISSN 0567-7572; Pays-Bas; Da. 2001; Vol. 566; Pp. 97-103; Bibl. 9 ref. LA : Anglais CC : 002A36C03 FD : Elevage intensif; Rentabilité; Maximisation; Alimentation animale; Croissance; Régime alimentaire; Formulation; Optimisation programme; Aviculture; Modélisation; Simulation mathématique; Simulation ordinateur; Modèle économétrique; Modèle mathématique; Modèle simulation; Algorithme génétique; Méthode Monte Carlo; Méthode plus grande pente; Programmation linéaire; Recherche tabou; Porc; Poulet; Etude économique; Etude sur modèle; Résolution problème; MARGE BRUTE; Algorithme Nelder Mead; Méthode montée pente; Méthode recuit simulé FG : Artiodactyla; Ungulata; Mammalia; Vertebrata; Aves; Production animale; Gestion automatisée; Economie agricole; Economie mathématique; Nutrition; Animal élevage; Animal à viande; Volaille ED : Intensive rearing; Profitability; Maximization; Animal feeding; Growth; Diet; Formulation; Program optimization; Poultry farming; Modeling; Mathematical simulation; Computer simulation; Econometric model; Mathematical model; Simulation model; Genetic algorithm; Monte Carlo method; Steepest descent method; Linear programming; Tabu search; Pig; Chicken; Economic study; Model study; Problem solving; GROSS MARGINS; Nelder Mead algorithm; ascent method; Simulated Annealing EG : Artiodactyla; Ungulata; Mammalia; Vertebrata; Aves; Animal production; Assisted management; Agricultural economics; Mathematical economy; Nutrition; Farming animal; Meat animals; Poultry SD : Cría intensiva; Rentabilidad; Maximización; Alimentación animal; Crecimiento; Régimen alimentario; Formulación; Optimización programa; Avicultura; Modelización; Simulación matemática; Simulación computadora; Modelo econométrico; Modelo matemático; Modelo simulación; Algoritmo genético; Método Monte Carlo; Método más grande inclinación; Programación lineal; Búsqueda tabú; Cerdo; Pollo; Estudio económico; Estudio sobre modelo; Resolución problema; BENEFICIO BRUTO LO : INIST-15963.354000097074570090 594/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0421920 INIST ET : Second international symposium on applications of modelling as an innovative technology in the agri-food chain : Palmerston North, 9-13 December 2001 AU : HERTOG (M.L.A.T.M.); MACKAY (B.R.) AF : International Society for Horticultural Science/Inconnu (patr.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau monographique SO : Acta horticulturae; ISSN 0567-7572; Pays-Bas; Da. 2001; Vol. 566; ; Pp. 553 p.; Abs. anglais; Bibl. dissem.; ill., index LA : Anglais CC : 002A32A02; 002A35A03 FD : Congrès international; Agriculture; Industrie alimentaire; Génie industriel alimentaire; Ingénierie; Modélisation; Innovation; Recherche appliquée; Technologie avancée; Technologie alimentaire; Modèle mathématique; Modèle théorique; Modèle économétrique; Modèle économique; Modèle simulation; Production animale; Production végétale; Horticulture; Culture protégée; Comportement consommateur; Défense consommateur; Economie agricole; Entreposage; Génie des procédés; Gestion production; Gestion qualité; Hygiène; Santé publique; Stockage; Traitement thermique; Transport; Industrie cuisson; INDUSTRIE DE LA VIANDE; Industrie fruits; Industrie laitière; Industrie légumes; Assistance ordinateur; Simulation ordinateur; Filière agroalimentaire; Technologie innovante ED : International conference; Agriculture; Food industry; Food engineering; Engineering; Modeling; Innovation; Applied research; Advanced technology; Food technology; Mathematical model; Theoretical model; Econometric model; Economic model; Simulation model; Animal production; Plant production; Horticulture; Protected cultivation; Consumer behavior; Consumer protection; Agricultural economics; Warehousing; Process engineering; Production management; Quality management; Hygiene; Public health; Storage; Heat treatment; Transport; agri-food chain; innovative technology SD : Congreso internacional; Agricultura; Industria alimenticia; Ingeniería alimentaria; Ingeniería; Modelización; Innovación; Investigación aplicada; Tecnología avanzada; Tecnología alimentaria; Modelo matemático; Modelo teórico; Modelo econométrico; Modelo económico; Modelo simulación; Producción animal; Produccíon vegetal; Horticultura; Cultivo protegido(invernadero); Comportamiento consumidor; Defensa consumidor; Economía agricola; Almacenamiento; Ingeniería procesos; Gestión producción; Gestión calidad; Higiene; Salud pública; Almacenamiento; Tratamiento térmico; Transporte LO : INIST-15963.354000097074570000 595/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0421361 INIST ET : Simulation and multicriteria models for project appraisal under risk and uncertainty: Horticultural and fruit trees farms AU : GARCIA (C. R.); AMADOR (F.); HERTOG (M.L.A.T.M.); MACKAY (B.R.) AF : ETEA, Business Administration Faculty, University of Córdoba/Espagne (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Acta horticulturae; ISSN 0567-7572; Pays-Bas; Da. 2001; Vol. 566; Pp. 91-96; Bibl. 7 ref. LA : Anglais CC : 002A32C01B3 FD : Culture plein champ; Culture protégée; Arboriculture; Horticulture; Développement agricole; Financement; Investissement; Prise décision; Rentabilité; Incertitude; Risque; Analyse multicritère; Evaluation projet; Modélisation; Recherche opérationnelle; Simulation ordinateur; Modèle économétrique; Modèle simulation; Système information; Arbre fruitier; Plante fruitière; Plante légumière; Etude sur modèle; Conception projet; Décision financière; Efficience économique; Algorithme; Distribution statistique; Méthode Monte Carlo; Logiciel; Système PRAPPIS (Project Appraisal Information System); Serre plastique; Cucumis melo; Cucumis sativus; Lycopersicon esculentum; Phaseolus vulgaris; Espagne FG : Industrie fruits; Industrie légumes; Economie agricole; Economie mathématique; Région méditerranéenne ED : Field crop; Protected cultivation; Arboriculture; Horticulture; Agricultural development; Financing; Investment; Decision making; Profitability; Uncertainty; Risk; Multicriteria analysis; Project evaluation; Modeling; Operations research; Computer simulation; Econometric model; Simulation model; Information system; Fruit tree; Fruit crop; Vegetable crop; Model study EG : Fruit industry; Vegetable industry; Agricultural economics; Mathematical economy SD : Cultivo campo raso; Cultivo protegido(invernadero); Arboricultura; Horticultura; Desarrollo agrícola; Financiación; Inversión; Toma decision; Rentabilidad; Incertidumbre; Riesgo; Análisis multicriterio; Evaluación proyecto; Modelización; Investigación operacional; Simulación computadora; Modelo econométrico; Modelo simulación; Sistema información; Arbol frutal; Planta frutal; Hortalizas (plantas); Estudio sobre modelo LO : INIST-15963.354000097074570080 596/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0421347 INIST ET : The dairy sector of an enlarged EU : Agenda 2000 and impacts of technical and institutional changes AU : BROCKMEIER (Martina); HEROK (Claudia A.); MANEGOLD (Dirk); SALAMON (Petra); HERTOG (M.L.A.T.M.); MACKAY (B.R.) AF : Federal Agricultural Research Centre, Institute of Market Analysis and Agricultural Trade Policy, Bundesallee 50/38116 Braunschweig/Allemagne (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Acta horticulturae; ISSN 0567-7572; Pays-Bas; Da. 2001; Vol. 566; Pp. 45-50; Bibl. 6 ref. LA : Anglais CC : 002A35B04; 002A36C03 FD : Industrie laitière; Production laitière; Changement organisationnel; Changement politique; Prévision technologique; Système institutionnel; Commerce international; Gestion production; Marché économique; Mondialisation; Politique agricole commune (CE); Quota; Modélisation; Modèle économétrique; Modèle économique; Modèle équilibre général; Modèle simulation; Scénario; Union européenne; 2000-2010; Analyse institutionnelle; Aspect politique; Etude économique; Etude sur modèle; Modèle GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project); Modèle MIPsi (Milk Policy Simulation); Agenda 2000; Filière agroalimentaire; Prix intervention; CHANGEMENT TECHNOLOGIQUE FG : Production animale; Europe ED : Dairy industry; Milk production; Organizational change; Political change; Technological forecasting; Institutional system; International trade; Production management; Economic market; Globalization; Common Agricultural Policy (EC); Quota; Modeling; Econometric model; Economic model; General equilibrium model; Simulation model; Script; European Union; 2000-2010; Institutional analysis; Political aspect; Economic study; Model study; agri-food chain; intervention price; TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES EG : Animal production; Europe SD : Industria láctea; Producción lechera; Cambio organizacional; Cambio político; Previsión tecnológica; Comercio internacional; Gestión producción; Mercado económico; Globalización; Política agrícola común (CE); Modelización; Modelo econométrico; Modelo económico; Modelo equilibrio general; Modelo simulación; Argumento; Unión Europea; 2000-2010; Análisis institucional; Aspecto político; Estudio económico; Estudio sobre modelo; CAMBIO TECNOLOGICO LO : INIST-15963.354000097074570020 597/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0418734 INIST ET : The effects of environmental fiscal reform in Germany: a simulation study AU : BACH (Stefan); KOHLHAAS (Michael); MEYER (Bernd); PRAETORIUS (Barbara); WELSCH (Heinz) AF : Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung/14195 Berlin/Allemagne (1 aut., 2 aut., 4 aut.); University of Osnabrück and GWS/49076 Osnabrück/Allemagne (3 aut.); Department of Economics, University of Oldenburg/26111 Oldenburg/Allemagne (5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2002; Vol. 30; No. 9; Pp. 803-811; Bibl. 17 ref. LA : Anglais FA : Analyse de l'impact, sur les emissions de CO2, la croissance économique et l'emploi jusqu'en 2010, et sur la répartition du revenu individuel en 2003, de la nouvelle politique fiscale entrée en vigueur en Allemagne, le 1er Avril 1999, afin de favoriser l'utilisation des combustibles et des technologies moins polluantes. L'impact économique et environnemental de cette nouvelle politique fiscale est évaluée à l'aide du modèle macroéconométrique multisectoriel, PANTA RHEI, et du modèle de simulation, LEAN, pour le secteur domestique. CC : 001D06A01A; 001D06A01B; 230 FD : Politique énergétique; Politique fiscale; Taxation; Fuel oil; Essence; Carburant diesel; Electricité; Gaz naturel; Lutte antipollution; Prévention pollution; Pollution air; Incitation; Combustible propre; Impact environnement; Emission polluant; Carbone dioxyde; Impact économique; Croissance économique; Emploi; Production; Secteur secondaire; Revenu individuel; Secteur domestique; Modèle macroéconométrique; Modèle économétrique; Modèle simulation; Tableau échanges interindustriels; Prévision; Court terme; Moyen terme; Allemagne; Modèle LEAN; Modèle PANTA RHEI FG : Europe ED : Energy policy; Fiscal policy; Taxation; Fuel oil; Gasoline; Diesel fuel; Electricity; Natural gas; Pollution control; Pollution prevention; Air pollution; Incentive; Clean fuel; Environment impact; Pollutant emission; Carbon dioxide; Economic impact; Economic growth; Employment; Production; Secondary sector; Personal income; Residential sector; Macroeconometric model; Econometric model; Simulation model; Input output table; Forecasting; Short term; Medium term; Germany EG : Europe SD : Política energética; Política fiscal; Tasación; Fuel oil; Gasolina; Carburante diesel; Electricidad; Gas natural; Lucha anticontaminación; Prevención polución; Contaminación aire; Combustible limpio; Impacto medio ambiente; Emisión contaminante; Carbono dióxido; Impacto económico; Crecimiento económico; Empleo; Producción; Sector secundario; Renta personal; Sector doméstico; Modelo macroeconométrico; Modelo econométrico; Modelo simulación; Previsión; Corto plazo; Término medio; Alemania LO : INIST-16417.354000101528670080 598/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0415779 INIST ET : Simulated waiting list prioritization for equitable allocation of donor lungs AU : OUWENS (J. P.); GROEN (H.); TENVERGERT (E. M.); KOËTER (G. H.); DE BOER (W. J.); VAN DER BIJ (W.) AF : Office for Medical Technology Assessment, University Hospital Groningen/Groningen/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); Department of Pulmonology, University Hospital Groningen/Groningen/Pays-Bas (4 aut., 6 aut.); Department of Thoracic Surgery, University Hospital Groningen/Groningen/Pays-Bas (5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : The Journal of heart and lung transplantation; ISSN 1053-2498; Etats-Unis; Da. 2002; Vol. 21; No. 7; Pp. 797-803; Bibl. 9 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: In lung transplantation (LTx), allocation of donor lungs is usually based on blood group, height and waiting time. Long waiting times favor patients with a slowly progressive end-stage lung disease and make the current allocation system the subject of discussion. In an attempt to equalize the chances for transplantation for every patient, irrespective of diagnosis, we investigated the effect of diagnosis-dependent prioritization on the waiting list, using a simulation model. Methods: For the main disease categories on the waiting list, the relative risks of dying while on the waiting list were calculated using empirical data from the Dutch LTx program gathered over a period of 10 years. In a microsimulation model of the Dutch LTx program based on data from the actual situation, patients with diagnoses associated with a statistically significant increased risk of death while on the waiting list were prioritized by multiplying the time on the waiting list by the relative risk. Results: Relative risks of death on the waiting list were increased significantly in patients with cystic fibrosis, primary pulmonary hypertension and pulmonary fibrosis. Prioritization resulted in an increased chance of transplantation for the prioritized diagnoses and a decreased chance for the non-prioritized diagnoses. The distribution of diagnoses after LTx was almost equal to the distribution of diagnoses on the waiting list. Conclusion: The simulated method of prioritization on the waiting list is a step forward to a more equitable allocation of donor lungs. Moreover, this method is clinically feasible, as long as the waiting list is updated frequently. CC : 002B25D FD : Hauteur; Temps attente; Mucoviscidose; Homme; Progressif; Hypertension artérielle pulmonaire; Stade terminal; Courant; Système; Discussion; Homotransplantation; Diagnostic; Affectation; Donneur; Poumon pathologie; Transplantation; Groupe sanguin; Modèle simulation; Méthode; Facteur risque; Traitement; Risque; Liste attente; Fibrose poumon FG : Greffe; Maladie héréditaire; Appareil respiratoire pathologie; Chirurgie; Pancréas pathologie; Métabolisme pathologie; Appareil digestif pathologie; Appareil circulatoire pathologie ED : Height; Waiting time; Cystic fibrosis; Human; Progressive; Pulmonary hypertension; Terminal stage; Current; System; Discussion; Homotransplantation; Diagnosis; Allocation; Donor; Lung disease; Transplantation; Blood group; Simulation model; Method; Risk factor; Treatment; Risk EG : Graft; Genetic disease; Respiratory disease; Surgery; Pancreatic disease; Metabolic diseases; Digestive diseases; Cardiovascular disease SD : Altura; Tiempo espera; Mucoviscidosis; Hombre; Progresivo; Hipertensión arterial pulmonar; Estadio terminal; Corriente; Sistema; Discusión; Homotrasplante; Diagnóstico; Afectación; Donador; Pulmón patología; Trasplantación; Grupo sanguíneo; Modelo simulación; Método; Factor riesgo; Tratamiento; Riesgo LO : INIST-21117.354000108276660090 599/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0405293 BDSP FT : Evaluer les politiques familiales. AU : LEGENDRE (François); LORGNET (Jean-Paul); THIBAULT (Florence); JACQUOT (Alain) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : RECHERCHES ET PREVISIONS; ISSN 1149-1590; France; Da. 2001-12; No. 66; Pp. 3-94; Bibl. 6 p. LA : Français FA : Dans ce dossier les sujets suivants sont développés : La microsimulation : l'objet de cet article est de présenter les modèles socio-économiques de microsimulation. Les auteurs détaillent les principes mis en oeuvre dans ce type d'outil et exposent les principaux modèles existant actuellement en France ; la présentation de Myriade qui est le modèle de microsimulation en cours de développement à la Caisse nationale des allocations familiales (CNAF). Avec cet outil, la branche Famille améliore ses possibilités d'études, de prévisions et de chiffrages ; la redistribution au bénéfice des familles : l'apport du modèle Myriade ; Explorations autour de l'allocation familiale unique. Substituer une seule prestation aux prestations d'entretien des enfants existantes. CC : 002B30A11 FD : Politique sociale; Evaluation; Informatique; Milieu familial; Donnée statistique; France FG : Europe ED : Social policy; Evaluation; Computer science; Family environment; Statistical data; France EG : Europe SD : Política social; Evaluación; Informática; Medio familiar; Dato estadístico; Francia LO : BDSP/ENSP-01/12 N:66 p.3-94 600/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0404420 BDSP FT : L'impact des prestations familiales sur le revenu des ménages en 2001. Une estimation à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation INES. AU : LE MINEZ (S.); LHOMMEAU (B.); PUCCI (M.) AF : Ministère de l'Emploi et de la Solidarité. Direction de la Recherche des Etudes de l'Evaluation et des Statistiques. (D.R.E.E.S.). Paris./France DT : Publication en série; Niveau monographique SO : ETUDES ET RESULTATS; ISSN 1146-9129; France; Da. 2002-05; No. 174; ; Pp. 12 p.; Bibl. 6 ref.; 5 tabl., 2 graph. LA : Français FA : Les transferts monétaires effectués dans le cadre de la politique familiale (hors impôts et minima sociaux) peuvent être évalués selon deux dimensions à l'aide du modèle de microsimulation INES : redistribution horizontale, des ménages sans enfant vers les familles, et verticale vers les familles les plus modestes. A revenu donné, la politique familiale compense partiellement l'impact de la présence d'enfants sur le niveau de vie des ménages. Elle joue plus fortement pour les familles modestes, le montant moyen des prestations versées par enfant diminuant avec le revenu des ménages. Cette compensation est importante pour les familles monoparentales et les couples ayant au moins trois enfants, qui bénéficient de mesures spécifiques (complément familial, allocation pour parent isolé, allocation de soutien familial). La politique familiale compense ainsi plus de la moitié de l'impact de la charge d'enfants sur le niveau de vie pour environ 30% des familles monoparentales ayant deux enfants ou plus et des couples avec trois enfants ou plus. A configuration familiale donnée, la politique familiale opère en outre une redistribution vers les plus bas niveaux de vie : après transferts, le niveau de vie relatif des 10% des ménages les plus modestes est amélioré pour toutes les familles, et plus particulièrement pour les familles nombreuses ou monoparentales. Parmi les couples qui ont au moins trois enfants, le niveau de vie avant prestations familiales est ainsi 5,9 fois plus élevé pour les 10% des ménages les plus aisés que pour les 10% les plus modestes, contre seulement 3,6 fois après. Au sein des familles monoparentales avec un enfant, cet écart inter-décile se trouve réduit de 22,8 à 6. L'impact redistributif des transferts monétaires qu'opère la politique familiale permet ainsi à 7% des familles d'éviter une situation de pauvreté monétaire (résumé d'auteur). CC : 002B30A11 FD : Aide sociale; Logement habitation; Revenu individuel; Niveau vie; Statut conjugal; Donnée statistique; Modèle; France FG : Europe ED : Social help; Housing; Personal income; Standard of living; Marital status; Statistical data; Models; France EG : Europe SD : Ayuda social; Habitación; Renta personal; Estatuto conyugal; Dato estadístico; Modelo; Francia LO : BDSP/CREDES-26282, P83 601/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0404294 BDSP FT : La microsimulation dynamique en démographie : peut-on raconter la solution d'un problème formalisé ? AU : GRIGNON (M.) AF : DT : Livre; Niveau analytique SO : Le modèle et le récit. ; France; Editions de la Maison des Sciences de l'Homme; Da. 2001; Pp. 333-353; ISBN 2-735-10905-4 LA : Français CC : 002B30A11 FD : Sciences sociales; Sociologie; Science; Modèle; Théorie; Consommateur; Histoire; Economie santé; Microéconomie; Démographie; Statistique; Epistémologie; Connaissance; Synthèse ED : Social sciences; Sociology; Sciences; Models; Theory; Consumer; History; Health economy; Microeconomy; Demography; Statistics; Epistemology; Knowledge; Synthesis SD : Ciencias sociales; Sociología; Ciencia; Modelo; Teoría; Consumidor; Historia; Economía salud; Microeconomía; Demografía; Estadística; Epistemología; Conocimiento; Síntesis LO : BDSP/CREDES-25671, R1374, A2447 602/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0333607 INIST ET : Cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening: Comparison of screening policies AU : VAN DEN AKKER-VAN MARLE (M. Elske); VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (Marjolein); VAN OORTMARSSEN (Gerrit J.); BOER (Rob); HABBEMA (J. Dik F.) AF : Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Erasmus University Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 5 aut.); Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and RAND Health/Santa Monica, CA/Etats-Unis (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of the National Cancer Institute; ISSN 0027-8874; Etats-Unis; Da. 2002; Vol. 94; No. 3; Pp. 193-204; Bibl. 53 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: Recommended screening policies for cervical cancer differ widely among countries with respect to targeted age range, screening interval, and total number of scheduled screening examinations (i.e., Pap smears). We compared the efficiency of cervical cancer-screening programs by performing a cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer-screening policies from high-income countries. Methods: We used the microsimulation screening analysis (MISCAN) program to model and determine the costs and effects of almost 500 screening policies, some fictitious and some actual (i.e., recommended by national guidelines). The costs (in U.S. dollars) and effects (in years of life gained) were compared for each policy to identify the most efficient policies. Results: There were 15 efficient screening policies (i.e., no alternative policy exists that results in more life-years gained for lower costs). For these policies, which considered two to 40 total scheduled examinations, the age range expanded gradually from 40-52 years to 20-80 years as the screening interval decreased from 12 to 1.5 years. For the efficient policies, the predicted gain in life expectancy ranged from 11.6 to 32.4 days, compared with a gain of 46 days if cervical cancer mortality were eliminated entirely. The average cost-effectiveness ratios increased from $6700 (for the longest screening interval) to $23900 per life-year gained. For some countries, the recommended screening policies were close to efficient, but the cost-effectiveness could be improved by reducing the number of scheduled examinations, starting them at later ages, or lengthening the screening interval. Conclusions: The basis for the diversity in the screening policies among high-income countries does not appear to relate to the screening policies' cost-effectiveness ratios, which are highly sensitive to the number of Pap smears offered during a lifetime. CC : 002B24O11 FD : Carcinome; Col utérus; Cytopathologie; Anatomopathologie; Dépistage; Frottis cervical; Démographie; Epidémiologie; Analyse coût efficacité; Politique sanitaire; Etude comparative; Homme; Femelle FG : Appareil génital femelle pathologie; Col utérus pathologie; Tumeur maligne ED : Carcinoma; Uterine cervix; Cytopathology; Pathology; Medical screening; Cervical smear; Demography; Epidemiology; Cost efficiency analysis; Health policy; Comparative study; Human; Female EG : Female genital diseases; Uterine cervix diseases; Malignant tumor SD : Carcinoma; Cuello útero; Citopatología; Anatomía patológica; Descubrimiento; Frotis cervical; Demografía; Epidemiología; Análisis costo eficacia; Política sanitaria; Estudio comparativo; Hombre; Hembra LO : INIST-3364.354000102407040050 603/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0289398 INIST ET : Gis-based analysis of railway's origin/destination path-selecting behavior AU : ZHONGZHEN YANG; HAYASHI (Yoshitsugu); ITOH (Yoshito); LIU (Chunlu) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, Dalian University of Technology/Dalian 116023/Chine (1 aut.); Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University/Nagoya 464-8603/Japon (2 aut.); University of Nagoya/Japon (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Computer-aided civil and infrastructure engineering; ISSN 1093-9687; Etats-Unis; Da. 2002; Vol. 17; No. 3; Pp. 221-226; Bibl. 6 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This study aims to analyze a railway's OD path-selecting behavior with microsimulation analysis in big cities. In big cities, railway networks often consist of lines belonging to several different companies, making railway OD path-selecting behavior very complex. Usually, the second or third nearest stations are used instead of the nearest station. This study takes buildings rather than zones as origins or destinations for simulating railway path-selecting behavior, First, in the GIS database, we consider whether the destinations are within walking distance of their origins. Then we modify the map-based railway network with GIS to make it represent the real urban railway network more clearly. Then, from all the available stations for each building, and all the paths between the origin and destination stations, the one involving the shortest distance is the one used. CC : 001D15D; 001D15B FD : Transport ferroviaire; Analyse comportementale; Simulation numérique; Modèle origine destination; Système information géographique; Critère décision; Itinéraire; Modèle microscopique; Base donnée; Plus court chemin; Réseau ferroviaire; Gestion optimale; Algorithme; Accessibilité ED : Rail transportation; Behavioral analysis; Numerical simulation; Origin destination model; Geographic information system; Decision criterion; Route; Microscopic model; Database; Shortest path; Railway network; Managerial optimization; Algorithm; Accessibility SD : Transporte ferroviaro; Análisis conductual; Simulación numérica; Modelo origen destinación; Sistema información geográfica; Criterio decisión; Itinerario; Modelo microscópico; Base dato; Camino más corto; Red ferroviaria; Gestión óptima; Algoritmo; Accesibilidad LO : INIST-21160.354000100515150080 604/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0279249 INIST ET : Analysis of aggregation effects in vehicular emission estimation AU : ZIETSMAN (Josias); RILETT (Laurence R.) AF : Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System/College Station, TX 77843/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2001; No. 1750; Pp. 56-63; Bibl. 13 ref. LA : Anglais EA : In the United States, most emissions modeling is done using the MOBILE suite of programs. One of the inputs required is vehicle kilometers of travel (VKT) for each vehicle class as a function of average speed. This information traditionally has been obtained from macroscopic planning models whereby the average speed on a given length of roadway is the same for all vehicle classes. During the past 10 years, however, there has been a definite shift away from macro-level transportation modeling to a more simulation-based approach. In addition to the advances in modeling techniques, the advent of intelligent transportation systems (ITS) has opened numerous possibilities for capturing detailed transportation-related information. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the trade-offs involved under different aggregation scenarios for estimating vehicular emissions using data sets produced by microsimulation models and ITS. A 22-km section of Interstate 10 in Houston, Texas, was used as the test bed in this study. The VKT and speed data for this corridor were determined using a calibrated TRANSIMS model. This information was then used with the MOBILESa emission model to compute emission estimates. The vehicular emissions were determined for a broad range of spatial, temporal, and combined spatial and temporal levels of disaggregation. It was found that emission estimates could vary by as much as 20 percent, depending on how the VKT and speed data are determined or depending on the type of ITS data-collection technology used. CC : 001D15C; 001D16C04C FD : Véhicule routier; Emission polluant; Modélisation; Agrégation; Etats Unis; Scénario; Modèle prévision; Simulation numérique; Analyse sensibilité; Désagrégation; Corrélation spatiotemporelle; Texas; Système automatique; Congrès international FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road vehicle; Pollutant emission; Modeling; Aggregation; United States; Script; Forecast model; Numerical simulation; Sensitivity analysis; Disaggregation; Space time correlation; Texas; Automatic system; International conference EG : North America; America SD : Vehículo caminero; Emisión contaminante; Modelización; Agregación; Estados Unidos; Argumento; Modelo previsión; Simulación numérica; Análisis sensibilidad; Desagregación; Correlación espacio tiempo; Texas; Sistema automático; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-10459B.354000107972650070 605/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0276070 INIST ET : Assessment of stochastic signal optimization method using microsimulation AU : PARK (Byungkyu); ROUPHAIL (Nagui M.); SACKS (Jerome) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Virginia, P.O. Box 400742/Charlottesville, VA 22904-4742/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, North Carolina State University, Campus Box 7908/Raleigh, NC 27695-7908/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); National Institute of Statistical Sciences, P.O. Box 14006/Research Triangle Park, NC 27709/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2001; No. 1748; Pp. 40-45; Bibl. 13 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A stochastic signal optimization method based on a genetic algorithm (GA-SOM) that interfaces with the microscopic simulation program CORSIM is assessed. A network in Chicago consisting of nine signalized intersections is used as an evaluation test bed. Taking CORSIM as the best representation of reality, the performance of the GA-SOM plan sets a ceiling on how good any (fixed) signal plan can be. An important aspect of this approach is its accommodations of variability. Also discussed is the robustness of an optimal plan under changes in demand. This benchmark is used to assess the best signal plan generated by TRANSYT-7F (T7F), Version 8.1, from among 12 reasonable strategies. The performance of the best T7F plan falls short of the benchmark on several counts, reflecting the need to account for variability in the highly stochastic system of traffic operations, which is not possible under the deterministic conditions intrinsic to T7F. As a sidelight, the performance of the GA-SOM plan within T7F is also computed and it is found to perform nearly as well as the optimum T7F plan. CC : 001D14O05; 001D15C; 001D15B; 295 FD : Feu signalisation; Optimisation; Méthode stochastique; Algorithme génétique; Gestion trafic; Trafic routier urbain; Intersection; Etude comparative; Simulation; Illinois; Timing; Evaluation performance; Robustesse; Recommandation; Congrès international FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Traffic lights; Optimization; Stochastic method; Genetic algorithm; Traffic management; Urban road traffic; Intersection; Comparative study; Simulation; Illinois; Timing; Performance evaluation; Robustness; Recommendation; International conference EG : United States; North America; America SD : Semáforo; Optimización; Método estocástico; Algoritmo genético; Gestión tráfico; Tráfico vial urbano; Intersección; Estudio comparativo; Simulación; Ilinois; Timing; Evaluación prestación; Robustez; Recomendación; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-10459B.354000107977290050 606/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0276069 INIST ET : Comparison of TRANSIMS and CORSIM traffic signal simulation modules AU : RILETT (L. R.); KIM (Kyu-Ok) AF : Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System/College Station, TX 77843/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2001; No. 1748; Pp. 18-25; Bibl. 16 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The microsimulation-based Transportation Analysis and Simulation System (TRANSIMS), which represents the next generation of travel forecasting techniques, was designed to model the transportation system of a metropolitan area at an individual traveler's level. Although the default model parameters in the TRANSIMS traffic signal logic were calibrated to the macroscopic flow relationships contained within the Highway Capacity Manual, to date there has been no research on the traffic signal characteristics of TRANSIMS using empirical data. The TRANSIMS traffic signal logic is examined with an emphasis on how well it could replicate diamond interchange operations. A diamond interchange network was coded into TRANSIMS, and the simulation results were compared with both empirical observations and CORSIM results. It was found that TRANSIMS logic could model the operation of a diamond interchange with respect to offset, cycle length, traffic demand, and signal spacing. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Trafic routier; Gestion trafic; Simulation; Feu signalisation; Carrefour routier; Etude comparative; Modèle prévision; Zone urbaine; Automate cellulaire; Etude expérimentale; Méthodologie; Résultat; Analyse sensibilité; Congrès international ED : Road traffic; Traffic management; Simulation; Traffic lights; Road junction; Comparative study; Forecast model; Urban area; Cellular automaton; Experimental study; Methodology; Result; Sensitivity analysis; International conference SD : Tráfico carretera; Gestión tráfico; Simulación; Semáforo; Cruce carretera; Estudio comparativo; Modelo previsión; Zona urbana; Autómata celular; Estudio experimental; Metodología; Resultado; Análisis sensibilidad; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-10459B.354000107977290030 607/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0230766 INIST ET : Forecasting the primary energy demand in Turkey and analysis of cyclic patterns AU : EDIGER (Volkan S.); TATLIDIL (Hüseyin) AF : Cumhurbaşkanliğt/Çankaya, 06689 Ankara/Turquie (1 aut.); Department of Statistics, Hacettepe University/06530 Ankara/Turquie (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy conversion and management; ISSN 0196-8904; Coden ECMADL; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2002; Vol. 43; No. 4; Pp. 473-487; Bibl. 36 ref. LA : Anglais FA : Etude comparative de plusieurs méthodes de prévision de la consommation d'énergie primaire, de la Turquie, jusqu'en 2010 : la méthode économétrique SPO, le modèle de simulation MAED qui prend en compte des paramètres socio-économiques et technologiques, la méthode de lissage exponentiel de Winters et l'analyse des cycles dans l'évolution de la consommation d'énergie primaire et du PIB, de 1950 à 1999. CC : 001D06A01C1; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Economie énergie; Consommation énergie; Energie primaire; Prévision; Moyen terme; Méthodologie; Etude comparative; Modèle économétrique; Modèle simulation; Modèle économique; Lissage exponentiel; PIB; Analyse tendance; Méthode cyclique; Turquie FG : Asie ED : Energy economy; Energy consumption; Primary energy; Forecasting; Medium term; Methodology; Comparative study; Econometric model; Simulation model; Economic model; Exponential smoothing; Gross domestic product; Trend analysis; Cyclic method; Turkey EG : Asia SD : Economía energía; Consumo energía; Energía primaria; Previsión; Término medio; Metodología; Estudio comparativo; Modelo econométrico; Modelo simulación; Modelo económico; Alisado exponencial; PIB; Análisis tendencia; Método cíclico; Turquía LO : INIST-10197.354000103433910030 608/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0228305 INIST ET : Rearrangement of receptive field topography after intracortical and peripheral stimulation: the role of plasticity in inhibitory pathways AU : KALARICKAL (George J.); MARSHALL (Jonathan A.) AF : Department of Computer Science, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Network : (Bristol); ISSN 0954-898X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2002; Vol. 13; No. 1; Pp. 1-40; Bibl. 2 p.1/2 LA : Anglais EA : Intracortical microstimulation (ICMS) of a single site in the somatosensory cortex of rats and monkeys for 2-6 h increases the number of neurons responsive to the skin region corresponding to the ICMS-site receptive field (RF), with very little effect on the position and size of the ICMS-site RF, and the response evoked at the ICMS site by tactile stimulation. Large changes in RF topography are also observed following several weeks of repetitive stimulation of a restricted skin region during tactile frequency discrimination training in monkeys. It has been suggested that these changes in RF topography are caused by competitive learning in excitatory pathways. This paper analyses the possible role of lateral inhibitory synaptic plasticity in producing cortical plasticity after ICMS and peripheral conditioning in adult animals. The EXIN' (afferent excitatory and lateral inhibitory) synaptic plasticity rules are used to model RF changes after ICMS and peripheral stimulation. The EXIN model produces RF topographical changes similar to those observed experimentally. It is shown that lateral inhibitory pathway plasticity is sufficient to model RF changes and increase in position discrimination after peripheral stimulation. Several novel and testable predictions are made based on the EXIN model. CC : 002A25A; 002A01B FD : Réseau neuronal; Neurologie; Réaction corticale; Simulation; Plasticité synaptique; Potentiel postsynaptique inhibiteur; Champ récepteur; Inhibition latérale; Neurone; Thalamus; ICMS ED : Neural network; Neurology; Cortical reaction; Simulation; Synaptic plasticity; Inhibitory postsynaptic potential; Receptive field; Lateral inhibition; Neuron; Thalamus; Intracortical microsimulation SD : Red neuronal; Neurología; Reacción cortical; Simulación; Plasticidad sináptica; Potencial postsináptico inhibidor; Campo receptor; Inhibición lateral; Neurona; Tálamo LO : INIST-22114.354000103338220010 609/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0222067 INIST ET : Effects of conservation tillage on the performance of Lake Erie basin farms AU : FORSTER (D. Lynn) AF : Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, The Ohio State University, 2120 Fyffe Rd./Columbus, Ohio 43210/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of environmental quality; ISSN 0047-2425; Coden JEVQAA; Etats-Unis; Da. 2002; Vol. 31; No. 1; Pp. 32-37; Bibl. 23 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper summarizes research that investigates the effects of alternative farming practices on the performance of Lake Erie basin farms. First, data from a representative panel of about 100 farmers is analyzed to determine how conservation tillage, rotations, and other factors affected farms' economic returns during 1987-1992. Statistical analysis of these data is unable to demonstrate that there is any significant relationship between farming system (i.e., tillage and rotation) variables and farm profitability. Next, a farm-level bioeconomic simulation model is used to analyze the effects of conservation tillage adoption on farm profitability, farm size, and pollutant emissions. Findings are that tillage system, farm size, and crop selection are determined jointly and may substantially improve economic performance of farms. Conservation tillage enables farms to be larger and more specialized, and as a result, farm profitability improves. Statistical analysis of farm panel data is unable to show the effect of tillage on profitability because it neglects to account for endogeneity of variables (or joint effects of tillage, size, crop selection, and performance) in production decisions. CC : 002A32B05; 002A32C01B2 FD : Exploitation agricole; Performance système; Technique culturale antiérosive; Bassin hydrographique; Région géographique; Lac Erié; Etude régionale; Evaluation performance; Emission polluant; Rotation culturale; Système culture; Système exploitation agricole; Travail sol; Modélisation; Simulation ordinateur; Modèle bioéconomique; Modèle économétrique; Modèle simulation; Agriculteur; Ohio; 1987-1992; Etude économique; Enquête sur exploitations agricoles FG : Grands Lacs Amérique; Amérique du Nord; Amérique; Economie agricole; Economie environnement; Conservation sol; Pollution eau; Qualité environnement; Programme agri-environnemental; Etats Unis; ETATS DU CENTRE NORD (EU); Projet LEASEQ ED : Farming; System performance; Conservation tillage; Drainage basins; Geographical division; Lake Erie; Regional study; Performance evaluation; Farm surveys EG : Great Lakes of America; North America; America; Agricultural economics; Environment economy; Soil conservation; Water pollution; Environment quality; Agri-environmental program; Lake Erie Agricultural Systems for Environmental Quality (LEASEQ) project SD : Explotación agrícola; Eficacia sistema; Técnica cultural antierosiva; Cuenca hidrográfica; Región geografica; Lago Erie; Estudio regional; Evaluación prestación; Encuestas sobre explotaciones LO : INIST-15480.354000094820100040 610/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0206227 INIST ET : Demand, generation and price in the Norwegian market for electric power AU : JOHNSEN (Tor Arnt) AF : Research Department, Statistics Norway, PB 8131, Dep./0033 Oslo/Norvège (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy economics; ISSN 0140-9883; Coden EECODR; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2001; Vol. 23; No. 3; Pp. 227-251; Bibl. 8 ref. LA : Anglais FA : Présentation de la conception et de la structure du marché norvégien de l'électricité. Développement d'une modèlisation économétrique de la demande et du prix de l'électricité, à partir des données de 1994 et 1995. Vérification du modèle en estimant l'évolution en 1996. Etude de l'impact des variations de température, de l'arrivée d'eau, de l'enneigement, des degrés jour et de la longueur du jour, sur le prix et la demande d'électricité. CC : 001D06A01C4; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Economie énergie; Electricité; Structure marché; Marché concurrentiel; Demande; Prix; Modèle économétrique; Simulation; Méthode dynamique; Maximum vraisemblance; Variation saisonnière; Somme température; Longueur jour; Enneigement; Température; Venue eau; Centrale hydroélectrique; Coefficient élasticité économique; Norvège FG : Europe ED : Energy economy; Electricity; Market structure; Open market; Demand; Price; Econometric model; Simulation; Dynamic method; Maximum likelihood; Seasonal variation; Heat sum; Day length; Snowfall; Temperature; Water influx; Hydroelectric power plant; Ratio of economic flexibility; Norway EG : Europe SD : Economía energía; Electricidad; Estructura mercado; Petición; Precio; Modelo econométrico; Simulación; Método dinámico; Maxima verosimilitud; Variación estacional; Suma temperatura; Largura día; Estado nieve; Temperatura; Irrupción agua; Central hidroeléctrica; Noruega LO : INIST-18231.354000095090850010 611/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0173171 INIST ET : Prognosis after aortic valve replacement with St. Jude Medical bileaflet prostheses: impact on outcome of varying thromboembolic and bleeding hazards AU : TAKKENBERG (J. J. M.); PUVIMANASINGHE (J. P. A.); VAN HERWERDEN (L. A.); STEYERBERG (E. W.); EIJKEMANS (M. J. C.); HABBEMA (J. D. F.); BOGERS (A. J. J. C.); HORSTKOTTE (Dieter); BERGEMANN (R.) AF : Department of Cardio-thoracic Surgery, Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 7 aut.); Center for Clinical Decision Sciences, Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (2 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut.); Department of Cardiology, Heart Center North Rhine-Westphalia, Ruhr University of Bochum/Bad Oeynhausen/Allemagne (1 aut.); Institute for Medical Outcome Research/Lörrach/Allemagne (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : European heart journal. Supplements; ISSN 1520-765X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2001; Vol. 3; No. Q; Q27-Q32; Bibl. 25 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Aims Prognosis after aortic valve replacement (AVR) with mechanical prostheses depends on multiple inter-related factors. Investigation into these factors is complicated by limited knowledge on outcome after AVR and by the varying therapeutic ranges of International Normalized Ratio employed worldwide. Meta-analysis was combined with microsimulation to calculate evidence-based, age-specific outcomes after AVR with St. Jude Medical (SJM) prostheses (St. Jude Medical, Inc., St. Paul, MN, U.S.A.). Method and results Eight studies were included in a meta-analysis of published results of primary isolated AVR with SJM prostheses (2986 patients, 16,163 patient-years) in order to estimate the hazard of postoperative valve-related events. Using microsimulation, calculated life expectancy and event-free life expectancy were 22 and 16 years in males aged 35 years, and 7 and 5 years in males aged 75 years, respectively. Calculated lifetime risks for thromboembolic and bleeding events were 22% and 15% in males aged 35 years, and 7% and 37% in males aged 75 years, respectively. Varying thromboembolic and bleeding hazards resulted in considerable shifts in lifetime risks and deaths associated with these events. Conclusion Meta-analysis combined with microsimulation is a powerful tool with which to calculate reliable estimates of long-term prognosis, and allows detailed insight into the occurrence of valve-related events. Thromboembolism and bleeding occur frequently after AVR with mechanical prostheses and have an important impact on survival. Optimal control of International Normalized Ratio is therefore of utmost importance. CC : 002B25E FD : Chirurgie; Remplacement; Valvule aortique; Prothèse à disque; Thromboembolie; Traitement; Pronostic; Homme FG : Appareil circulatoire pathologie; Vaisseau sanguin pathologie ED : Surgery; Replacement; Aortic valve; Disk prosthesis; Thromboembolism; Treatment; Prognosis; Human EG : Cardiovascular disease; Vascular disease SD : Cirugía; Reemplazo; Válvula aórtica; Prótesis disco; Tromboembolia; Tratamiento; Pronóstico; Hombre LO : INIST-18785S.354000103459330060 612/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0126257 INIST ET : First do no harm: extending the debate on the provision of preventive tamoxifen AU : WILL (B. P.); NOBREGA (K. M.); BERTHELOT (J-M); FLANAGAN (W.); WOLFSON (M. C.); LOGAN (D. M.); EVANS (W. K.) AF : The Health Analysis and Modeling Group, Statistics Canada, 24-Q, R.H. Coats Building/Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0T6/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut.); The Ottawa Regional Cancer Centre, the University of Ottawa and Cancer Care Ontario, 620 University Avenue/Toronto, Ontario, M5G 2L7/Canada (6 aut., 7 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : British journal of cancer; ISSN 0007-0920; Coden BJCAAI; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2001; Vol. 85; No. 9; Pp. 1280-1288; Bibl. 14 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The Breast Cancer Prevention Trial (BCPT-P-1) demonstrated that tamoxifen could reduce the risk of invasive breast cancer in high-risk women by 49%, but that it could also increase the risk of endometrial cancer, vascular events and cataracts. This paper provides an estimate of the net health impacts of tamoxifen administration on high-risk Canadian women with no prior history of breast cancer. The results of the BCPT-P-1 were incorporated into the breast cancer and other modules of Statistics Canada's microsimulation Population HEalth Model (POHEM). While the main intervention scenario conformed as closely as possible to the eligibility criteria for tamoxifen in the BCPT-P-1 protocol, 3 additional scenarios were simulated. Predicted absolute risks of breast cancer at 5 years of 1.66%, 3.32% and 4.15% were calculated for women 35 to 70 years of age. When the BCPT-P-1 results were incorporated into the simulation model, the analysis suggests no increase in life expectancy in this risk group. Tamoxifen appeared to be beneficial for women with a 5-year predicted risk of 3.32% or greater. The results of these simulations are particularly sensitive to the reduction in mortality observed in the BCPT-P-1, as well as being sensitive to other characteristics of the simulation model. Overall, the analysis raises questions about the use of tamoxifen in otherwise healthy women at high risk of breast cancer. CC : 002B02R02 FD : Tamoxifène; Toxicité; Chimiothérapie; Anticancéreux; Homme; Prévention; Composé non stéroïde; Antihormone; Antioestrogène; Indication; Facteur risque; Complication; Espérance vie; Estrogen synthase; Etude multicentrique; Anastrozole; Etude double insu; Randomisation; Femelle; Long terme FG : Enzyme ED : Tamoxifene; Toxicity; Chemotherapy; Antineoplastic agent; Human; Prevention; Non steroid compound; Antihormone; Antiestrogen; Indication; Risk factor; Complication; Life expectancy; Estrogen synthase; Multicenter study; Anastrozole; Double blind study; Randomization; Female; Long term EG : Enzyme SD : Tamoxifeno; Toxicidad; Quimioterapia; Anticanceroso; Hombre; Prevención; Compuesto no esteroide; Antihormona; Antiestrógeno; Indicación; Factor riesgo; Complicación; Esperanza de vida; Estrogen synthase; Estudio multicéntrico; Anastrozol; Estudio doble ciego; Aleatorización; Hembra; Largo plazo LO : INIST-6925.354000103025790080 613/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0117275 INIST ET : Combined application of traffic microsimulation and street canyon dispersion models, and evaluation of the modelling system against measured data AU : GRANBERG (M.); NIITTYMÄKI (J.); KARPPINEN (A.); KUKKONEN (J.); SUCHAROV (L.); BREBBIA (C.A.) AF : Helsinki University of Technology, Laboratory of Transportation/Finlande (1 aut., 2 aut.); Finnish Meteorological Institute/Finlande (3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : International conference on urban transport and the environment for the 21st century/6/2000-07-26/Cambridge GBR; Royaume-Uni; Southampton: WIT Press; Da. 2000; Pp. 349-358; ISBN 1-85312-823-6 LA : Anglais EA : In this study, the traffic micro-simulation model HUTSIM, used by Helsinki University of Technology, and a street canyon dispersion model OSPM (Operational Street Pollution Model) were integrated. HUTSIM is designed especially for simulating signal-controlled intersections and small areas consisting of several intersections. In 1997 a measuring campaign was conducted in a street canyon (Runeberg's St.) in Helsinki. Hourly concentrations of CO, NOX, NO2 and O3were measured at street and roof levels. The relevant hourly meteorological parameters were measured at roof level; these included wind speed and direction, temperature and solar radiation. Hourly street level measurements and on-site electronic traffic counts were conducted throughout the whole of 1997; roof level measurements were conducted for approximately two months, from 3rdof March to 30th of April, 1997. The above mentioned location and time (the year 1997) are considered also in this study, in order to be able to compare the simulation results with measured traffic flow and concentration values, as well as the corresponding previous computational results. The results of flow and emission computations obtained with the two modelling systems, involving traffic micro- and macrosimulation models, were first compared with each other. The predicted atmospheric pollutant concentrations were then compared with the measured data. The results were promising. CC : 001D15C; 001D16C04C FD : Trafic routier urbain; Simulation numérique; Dispersion; Modèle microscopique; Régulation trafic; Signalisation routière; Mesure concentration; Emission polluant; Condition climatique; Congrès international ED : Urban road traffic; Numerical simulation; Dispersion; Microscopic model; Traffic control; Road signalling; Concentration measurement; Pollutant emission; Climatic condition; International conference SD : Tráfico vial urbano; Simulación numérica; Dispersión; Modelo microscópico; Regulación tráfico; Señalización tráfico; Medición concentración; Emisión contaminante; Condición climática; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-Y 33597.354000097035060350 614/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0011824 INIST ET : Airline market share and customer service quality: a reference-dependent model AU : SUZUKI (Yoshinori); TYWORTH (John E.); NOVACK (Robert A.) AF : Department of Logistics, Operations and MIS, College of Business, Iowa State University, 300 Carver Hall/Ames, IA 50011/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Business Logistics, Smeal College of Business Administration, Pennsylvania State University/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice; ISSN 0965-8564; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2001; Vol. 35; No. 9; Pp. 773-788; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : Traditional models that explain the nature of the relationship between customer service quality and airline demand assume that the relationship can be approximated by using smooth or differentiable curves. Suzuki and Tyworth, however, recently argued that this assumption may not be valid, and that, if it is invalid, the model performance can be improved by using non-smooth functions to represent the relationship (Suzuki, Y., Tyworth, J.E., 1998. A theoretical framework for modeling sales-service relationships in the transportation industry, Transportation Research E 34 (2), 87-100). We use their framework to develop a model that represents the relationship between service quality and market share in the airline industry and then empirically compare its performance with conventional airline demand models. The results indicate that the relationship is characterized by a non-smooth curve and that our model provides a significantly better goodness of fit than other conventional demand models. CC : 001D15I; 001D15B FD : Transport aérien; Economie transport; Pénétration marché; Qualité service; Simulation numérique; Système référence; Modèle économétrique; Demande transport; Analyse statistique; Tarification; Analyse multicritère; Etude comparative ED : Air transportation; Economy of transports; Market penetration; Service quality; Numerical simulation; Reference system; Econometric model; Transport demand; Statistical analysis; Tariffication; Multicriteria analysis; Comparative study SD : Transporte aéreo; Economía transporte; Penetración mercado; Calidad servicio; Simulación numérica; Sistema referencia; Modelo econométrico; Demanda transporte; Análisis estadístico; Fijacion tarifa; Análisis multicriterio; Estudio comparativo LO : INIST-12377A.354000096399650010 615/793 NO : PASCAL 02-0010915 INIST ET : The effect of income on car ownership: evidence of asymmetry AU : DARGAY (Joyce M.) AF : ESRC Transport Studies Unit, Centre for Transport Studies, University College London, Gower Street/London WC1E 6BT/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice; ISSN 0965-8564; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2001; Vol. 35; No. 9; Pp. 807-821; Bibl. 18 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper examines the effect of income on car ownership, and specifically the question of hysteresis or asymmetry. Although there is little doubt that rising income leads to higher car ownership, less is understood about the effect of falling income. Traditional demand modelling is based on the implicit assumption that demand responds symmetrically to rising and falling income. The object of this study is to test this assumption statistically. Using a dynamic econometric model relating household car ownership to income, the number of adults and children in the household, car prices and lagged car ownership, income decomposition techniques are employed to separately estimate elasticities with respect to rising and falling income. The equality of these elasticities - no hysteresis - is tested statistically against the inequality -hysteresis - hypothesis. Various functional specifications are tested in order to assure the robustness of the results to assumptions concerning functional form. The estimation is based on cohort data constructed from 1970 to 1995 UK Family Expenditure Surveys, and a pseudo-panel methodology is employed. The results indicate that car ownership responds more strongly to rising than to falling income - there is a stickiness' in the downward direction. In addition, there is evidence that the income elasticity is not constant, but instead declines with increasing car ownership. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Automobile; Propriété; Revenu économique; Economie transport; Demande transport; Simulation numérique; Modèle économétrique; Analyse statistique; Asymétrie revenu ED : Road traffic; Motor car; Properties; Income; Economy of transports; Transport demand; Numerical simulation; Econometric model; Statistical analysis SD : Tráfico carretera; Automóvil; Propiedad; Renta; Economía transporte; Demanda transporte; Simulación numérica; Modelo econométrico; Análisis estadístico LO : INIST-12377A.354000096399650030 616/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-02-16033 INIST FT : Le modèle de microsimulation INES appliqué à une évaluation EX ANTE de l'effet de trois réformes sur le revenu des ménages ET : (Microsimulation model applied to an evaluation of the effect of three reforms on household income) AU : LHOMMEAU (Bertrand); MURAT (Fabrice); LOISY (Christian) AF : Ministère de l'Emploi et de la solidarité - DREES/France (1 aut.); INSEE/France (2 aut.); Ministère de l'Emploi et de la solidarité - DREES/France (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Dossiers solidarité et santé; ISSN 1296-2120; France; Da. 2001; No. 4; Pp. 67-88; Bibl. 19 ref. LA : Français FA : Entre 2001 et 2003, diverses mesures ont été engagées avec, dans le domaine fiscal, la baisse de l'impôt sur le revenu et l'instauration de la prime pour l'emploi et, dans le domaine social, la refonte des aides au logement dans le secteur locatif. Pour estimer l'effet redistributif de ces mesures - à comportements inchangés - on utilise ici le modèle de microsimulation INES, développé conjointement par la DREES et l'INSEE. Avec cet outil et sous l'hypothèse d'une population et de revenus primaires inchangés, l'ensemble des trois mesures citées ferait baisser le taux moyen de prélèvements nets de transferts de 0,8 point en législation 2001 et de 1,6 point en législation 2003. Cette diminution des taux de prélèvements nets de transferts est peu différenciée selon la position des ménages dans l'échelle des revenus initiaux. Au total, la réforme fiscale et celle des aides au logement auraient un impact positif mais faible sur les inégalités de revenus et sur la pauvreté monétaire CC : 5218; 521 FD : Méthodologie; Statistique; Ménage; Revenu; Mesure; France ED : Methodology; Statistics; Household; Income; Measurement; France LO : INIST-26465.354000102307540060 617/793 NO : FRANCIS 531-02-11500 PRODIG-INTERGEO ET : The application of zone-design methodology in the 2001 UK census AU : MARTIN (D.); NOLAN (A.); TRANMER (M.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Environment and planning. A; ISSN 0308-518X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2001; Vol. 33; No. 11; Pp. 1949-1962; Abs. anglais; Bibl. 25 ref.; 2 fig., 1 tabl. LA : Anglais EA : This paper reviews the automated zone-design procedures adopted for the creation of 2001 census output geography in the United Kingdom. A series of output area design scenarios are applied to microsimulation data, allowing the effects of the new design constraints to be evaluated. The AA. identify the advantages of using an intra-area correlation measure for the maximization of social homogeneity within output areas. CC : 531208; 531 FD : Analyse spatiale; Autocorrélation spatiale; Collecte des données; Statistique; Zonage; Automatisation; Donnée; Population; Modèle; Structure sociale; Recensement de la population; Royaume-Uni ED : Spatial analysis; Spatial autocorrelation; Data collection; Statistics; Zoning; Automation; Data; Population; Model; Social structure; Population census; United Kingdom LO : INIST-15583 A 618/793 NO : FRANCIS 531-02-10941 PRODIG-INTERGEO ET : The local implications of major job transformations in the city : a spatial microsimulation approach AU : BALLAS (D.); CLARKE (G.P.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Geographical analysis; ISSN 0016-7363; Etats-Unis; Da. 2001; Vol. 33; No. 4; Pp. 291-311; Abs. anglais; Bibl. 51 ref.; 10 fig., 4 tabl. LA : Anglais FA : Les AA. montrent que les techniques de modélisation sur la base de micro-simulations spatiales peuvent servir à analyser le marché local du travail et à évaluer les effets des politiques socio-économiques urbaines à l'échelle des ménages et des individus. Exemple de Leeds CC : 531123; 531 FD : Marché local du travail; Simulation; Espace urbain; Modèle d'entrée-sortie; Analyse spatiale; Comportement des ménages; Impact économique; Fermeture d'usine; Trajet domicile-travail; Structure socio-économique; Economie urbaine; Royaume-Uni; England; West Yorkshire; Leeds ED : Local labour market; Simulation; Urban area; Input-output model; Spatial analysis; Household behaviour; Economic impact; Factory closure; Journey to work; Socio-economic system; Urban economy; United Kingdom; England; West Yorkshire; Leeds LO : INTG 619/793 NO : FRANCIS 531-02-10469 PRODIG-INTERGEO ET : Merlin : a decision support system for outdoor leisure planning. Development and test of a rule-based microsimulation model for the evaluation of alternative scenarios and planning options AU : VAN MIDDELKOOP (M.) AF : University/Eindhoven/Pays-Bas (tutelle) DT : Publication en série; Thèse; Niveau monographique SO : Collection Bouwstenen; Pays-Bas; Da. 2001; No. 60; ; Pp. XX+381 p.; Abs. néerlandais LA : Anglais EA : The majority of models used in the outdoor leisure planning practice today lack the sophistication required to gain insight into individual tourist trip patterns. This thesis therefore aimed to develop and test a microsimulation model taking into account many facets of outdoor leisure trips and mutual dependencies among these facets and among subsequent leisure trips. Microsimulation offers the opportunity to build more comprehensive models of leisure choices by combining behavioural hypotheses and relationships with regard to the facets that comprise the decisions. - (AGD) CC : 531151; 531 FD : Décision; Loisir; Tourisme; Simulation; Modèle; Comportement; Choix spatial; Pays-Bas; Loisirs de plein air; Trajet ED : Decision; Leisure; Tourism; Simulation; Model; Behaviour; Spatial choice; Netherlands (The); Outdoor recreation; Trip LO : RESBGI 620/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0445088 INIST ET : Comparison of low-fidelity TRANSIMS and high-fidelity CORSIM highway Simulation models with intelligent transportation System data AU : RILETT (L. R.); KIM (Kyu-Ok); RANEY (Bryan) AF : Department of Civil Engineering and Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System/College Station, TX 77843/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System/College Station, TX 77843/Etats-Unis (2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2000; No. 1739; Pp. 1-8; Bibl. 16 ref. LA : Anglais EA : In recent years there has been increased emphasis in the transportation modeling field on replacing macroscopic supply functions with simulation models. For example, the highway supply relationship in the Transportation Analysis and Simulation System (TRANSIMS) is based on a low-fidelity microsimulation model. How the TRANSIMS low-fidelity highway simulation module compares with a high-fidelity model and with empirical observations from intelligent transportation system (ITS) implementation projects has been examined. A section of Interstate 10 in Houston, Texas, was used as a test bed and ITS data were obtained for calibration and validation purposes. For comparison, the high-fidelity CORSIM model, which is used extensively in North America for operational analyses, was calibrated and tested with the same data. The two models did equally well at replicating the baseline volume data. In addition, the mean travel time output from the calibrated TRANSIMS model tended to be about 20 percent greater than the mean travel time from the calibrated CORSIM model. In general, the observed travel times were found to lie between the simulated values from the TRANSIMS and CORSIM models. More important, the link and corridor travel time variability appeared to be significantly less than the observed travel time variability. It is hypothesized that this difference may affect certain measures of effectiveness, such as automobile emissions, that will be used by transportation planners. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Transport routier; Système transport; Système intelligent; Simulation numérique; Essai pilote; Texas; Modèle origine destination; Etalonnage; Volume trafic; Heure de pointe; Heure creuse; Distance; Vitesse déplacement; Congrès international; CORSIM; TRANSIMS FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road transportation; Transportation system; Intelligent system; Numerical simulation; Pilot test; Texas; Origin destination model; Calibration; Capacity of traffic; Rush hour; Off peak hour; Distance; Speed; International conference EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transporte por carretera; Sistema de transporte; Sistema inteligente; Simulación numérica; Prueba en instalación experimental; Texas; Modelo origen destinación; Contraste; Volumen tráfico; Hora punta; Hora poca actividad; Distancia; Velocidad desplazamiento; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-10459B.354000099422860010 621/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0444475 INIST ET : Evaluation of a three-step method for choosing the number of bootstrap repetitions AU : ANDREWS (Donald W. K.); BUCHINSKY (Moshe); HSIAO (Cheng); PERRIGNE (Isabelle) AF : Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University/New Haven, CT 06520-8281/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Economics, Brown University, Box B/Providence, RI 02912/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue/Cambridge, MA 02138/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); INSEE-CREST, 15 Boulevard Gabriel Péri/92245 Malakoff/France (2 aut.); Department of Economics, University of Southern California/University Park, Los Angeles, CA 90089 0253/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2001; Vol. 103; No. 1-2; Pp. 345-386; Bibl. 16 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper provides a variety of Monte Carlo simulations that evaluate the finite-sample performance of the three-step method for choosing the number of bootstrap repetitions, suggested by Andrews and Buchinsky (Econometrica 67 (2000) 23-51). The simulations cover bootstrap standard errors, confidence intervals, tests, and p-values. Three commonly used econometric applications are considered: linear regression, binary probit, and quantile regression. In brief, we find that the three-step method works very well in all of the contexts examined here. We also find that the number of bootstrap repetitions commonly used in econometric applications is much less than needed to achieve accurate bootstrap quantities. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02H02G; 001A02H02H FD : Méthode statistique; Econométrie; Bootstrap; Asymétrie; Estimation statistique; Estimation paramètre; Limite tolérance; Limite confiance; Estimation non paramétrique; Quantile; Simulation; Estimation erreur; Estimation densité; Intervalle confiance; Méthode Monte Carlo; Erreur systématique; Méthode à pas; Simulation numérique; Ecart type; Modèle économétrique; Régression linéaire; Régression statistique; 62J05; 62G15; Estimateur Siddiqui; Loi asymptotique; Méthode 3 pas ED : Statistical method; Econometrics; Bootstrap; Asymmetry; Statistical estimation; Parameter estimation; Tolerance limit; Confidence limit; Non parametric estimation; Quantile; Simulation; Error estimation; Density estimation; Confidence interval; Monte Carlo method; Bias; Step method; Numerical simulation; Standard deviation; Econometric model; Linear regression; Statistical regression; Siddiqui estimator; Asymptotic distribution; Three step method SD : Método estadístico; Econometría; Bootstrap; Asimetría; Estimación estadística; Estimación parámetro; Límite tolerancia; Límite confianza; Estimación no paramétrica; Cuantila; Simulación; Estimación error; Estimación densidad; Intervalo confianza; Método Monte Carlo; Error sistemático; Método a paso; Simulación numérica; Desviación típica; Modelo econométrico; Regresión lineal; Regresión estadística LO : INIST-16460.354000095602450090 622/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0443945 INIST ET : Two-step estimation of semiparametric censored regression models AU : KHAN (Shakeeb); POWELL (James L.); HSIAO (Cheng); PERRIGNE (Isabelle) AF : Department of Economics, Harkness Hall, PO Box 27056, University of Rochester/Rochester, NY 14627-0156/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Economics, University of California at Berkeley/Berkeley, CA 94720-3880/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Department of Economics, University of Southern California/University Park, Los Angeles, CA 90089 0253/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2001; Vol. 103; No. 1-2; Pp. 73-110; Bibl. 1 p.3/4 LA : Anglais EA : Root-n-consistent estimators of the regression coefficients in the linear censored regression model under conditional quantile restrictions on the error terms were proposed by Powell (Journal of Econometrics 25 (1984) 303-325, 32 (1986a) 143-155). While those estimators have desirable asymptotic properties under weak regularity conditions, simulation studies have shown these estimators to exhibit a small sample bias in the opposite direction of the least squares bias for censored data. This paper introduces two-step estimators for these models which minimize convex objective functions, and are designed to overcome this finite-sample bias. The paper gives regularity conditions under which the proposed two-step estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal; a Monte Carlo study compares the finite sample behavior of the proposed methods with their one-step counterparts. CC : 001A02H02G; 001A02H02H; 001A02H02J; 001A02H02N2 FD : Estimation statistique; Estimation paramètre; Comportement asymptotique; Quantile; Estimation non paramétrique; Echantillon censuré; Méthode moindre carré; Régression linéaire; Estimation linéaire; Régression statistique; Méthode statistique; Econométrie; Régularité; Méthode Monte Carlo; Fonction convexe; Fonction objectif; Méthode un pas; Méthode à pas; Maximum vraisemblance; Méthode semiparamétrique; Modèle régression; Estimateur convergent; Coefficient régression; Modèle linéaire; Estimation erreur; Modèle économétrique; Petit échantillon; Erreur systématique; Estimation biaisée; 62G20; processus convex; Orthogonalité asymptotique; Régression quantile; Estimation score ED : Statistical estimation; Parameter estimation; Asymptotic behavior; Quantile; Non parametric estimation; Censored sample; Least squares method; Linear regression; Linear estimation; Statistical regression; Statistical method; Econometrics; Regularity; Monte Carlo method; Convex function; Objective function; One step method; Step method; Maximum likelihood; Semiparametric method; Regression model; Consistent estimator; Regression coefficient; Linear model; Error estimation; Econometric model; Small sample; Bias; Biased estimation; Convex process; Asymptotic orthogonality; Quantile regression; Score estimation SD : Estimación estadística; Estimación parámetro; Comportamiento asintótico; Cuantila; Estimación no paramétrica; Muestra censurada; Método cuadrado menor; Regresión lineal; Estimación lineal; Regresión estadística; Método estadístico; Econometría; Regularidad; Método Monte Carlo; Función convexa; Función objetivo; Método un paso; Método a paso; Maxima verosimilitud; Método semiparamétrico; Modelo regresión; Estimador convergente; Coeficiente regresión; Modelo lineal; Estimación error; Modelo econométrico; Pequeña muestra; Error sistemático; Estimación sesgada LO : INIST-16460.354000095602450020 623/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0437188 INIST ET : Toronto area car ownership study : A retrospective interview and its applications AU : ROORDA (Matthew J.); MOHAMMADIAN (Abolfazl); MILLER (Eric J.) AF : McCormick Rankin Corporation, 2655 North Sheridan Way/Mississauga, Ontario L5K 2P8/Canada (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 Saint George Street/Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A4/Canada (2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2001; No. 1719; Pp. 69-76; Bibl. 24 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Recent work in the area of comprehensive transportation modeling systems in a microsimulation framework, more specifically auto ownership modeling, has recognized the need for increased experimentation with dynamic models. Implicitly, dynamic models require longitudinal data. A Toronto area car ownership study was conducted to design and administer a longitudinal survey to fulfill the data requirements for such a dynamic model, to validate the survey results, and to conduct preliminary analysis on those results. An in-depth retrospective telephone survey was conducted with the help of a computer aid in Toronto, Canada. Simple univariate analyses were conducted on the data to determine the relationship between characteristics of the household and the occurrence of vehicle transactions, the choice of vehicle type, the duration a vehicle is held, and the degree of consumer loyalty to different types of vehicles. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier urbain; Ontario; Automobile; Propriété; Condition utilisation; Simulation numérique; Modèle dynamique; Collecte donnée; Enquête; Analyse transactionnelle; Durée service; Facteur sociodémographique; Type véhicule; Critère décision; Congrès international FG : Canada; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Urban road traffic; Ontario; Motor car; Properties; Condition of use; Numerical simulation; Dynamic model; Data gathering; Survey; Transactional analysis; Service life; Sociodemographic factor; Vehicle type; Decision criterion; International conference EG : Canada; North America; America SD : Tráfico vial urbano; Ontario; Automóvil; Propiedad; Condición utilización; Simulación numérica; Modelo dinámico; Recolección dato; Encuesta; Análisis transaccional; Duración servicio; Factor sociodemográfico; Tipo vehículo; Criterio decisión; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-10459B.354000099423280090 624/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0437051 INIST ET : Car ownership dynamics seen through the follow-up of cohorts : Comparison of France and the United Kingdom AU : DARGAY (Joyce M.); MADRE (Jean-Loup); BERRI (Akli) AF : Economic and Social Research Council Transport Studies Unit, University College London, Gower Street/London WC1E E 6BT/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.); Institut National de Récherche sur les Transports et Leur Sécurité, Département Économie et Sociologie des Transports, 2 Avenue du Général Malleret-Joinville/94114 Arcueil/France (2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2000; No. 1733; Pp. 31-38; Bibl. 7 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The dynamics of car ownership based on age-cohort data constructed from repeated cross-section surveys is investigated for France and the United Kingdom, both nationally and for different geographic areas. Two different modeling strategies are used : a demographic approach and a dynamic econometric approach. The demographic approach is primarily oriented toward long-term forecasting. It takes into account changes In car ownership over the life cycle for each generation, differences between generations, and period effects explained by income and prices. The dynamic econometric approach is mainly concerned with estimating the elasticity of car ownership with respect to income and prices in the short and long run. It is based on a dynamic model in which household car ownership is specified as a function of income, prices, sociodemographic factors, and previous car ownership. The results using the two approaches are quite similar. The income elasticity is significantly higher in the United Kingdom than in France, is higher in rural than in urban areas, and decreases over time as car ownership increases. Generation gaps, which have been important between older generations, are not significant for households whose head was born after the 1940s, which implies that the diffusion of car ownership over generations is nearing completion. In addition, a declining income elasticity confirms a progressive evolution toward saturation. Finally, car ownership is considerably more sensitive to car purchase prices than to gasoline prices and both appear to be more significant in densely populated zones than in rural areas. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Automobile; Simulation numérique; Modèle dynamique; France; Royaume Uni; Modèle économétrique; Facteur sociodémographique; Collecte donnée; Enquête; Propriété; Analyse statistique; Etude comparative; Congrès international FG : Europe ED : Road traffic; Motor car; Numerical simulation; Dynamic model; France; United Kingdom; Econometric model; Sociodemographic factor; Data gathering; Survey; Properties; Statistical analysis; Comparative study; International conference EG : Europe SD : Tráfico carretera; Automóvil; Simulación numérica; Modelo dinámico; Francia; Reino Unido; Modelo econométrico; Factor sociodemográfico; Recolección dato; Encuesta; Propiedad; Análisis estadístico; Estudio comparativo; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-10459B.354000099423020050 625/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0434921 INIST FT : Agenda 2000 : Conséquences sur les exploitations de grandes cultures en Poitou-Charentes. Impacts sur les revenus, les assolements et alternatives pour les exploitations agricoles. Situation et perspectives pour la filière collecte en grandes cultures ET : Agenda 2000 : Consequences on cash crops farm holdings in the region of Poitou-Charentes. Impact on farm incomes, crop rotations and alternatives for the farm holdings. Situation and prospects for the collection sector ET : (Agenda 2000 : Impact on arable crop farms in Poitou-Charentes (southwestern France)) AU : ZAHM (Frédéric); CHATELIER (Vincent); PIET (Laurent); KERVEGANT (Eric); MILLET (Guy); SOURIE (Jean Claude); COLSON (François) AF : Institut de recherche pour l'ingénierie de l'agriculture et de l'environnement/Antony/France; INRA. Laboratoire d'études et de recherches économiques/Nantes/France DT : Rapport; Niveau monographique SO : Agenda 2000 : Conséquences sur les exploitations de grandes cultures en Poitou-Charentes. Impacts sur les revenus, les assolements et alternatives pour les exploitations agricoles. Situation et perspectives pour la filière collecte en grandes cultures; France; Da. 2000; CEMAGREF/00-0460; Pp. 2 vol. (217, 69) p. LA : Français FA : L'étude évalue les conséquences de la nouvelle réforme de la politique agricole commune sur les exploitations de grandes cultures en région Poitou-Charentes. Elle identifie également les différentes possibilités d'adaptation de ces exploitations. L'étude s'attache enfin à caractériser le secteur de la collecte de grains et ses enjeux dans ce nouvel environnement économique. L'impact de la réforme est évalué à partir de 3 méthodes complémentaires : la première simule l'évolution du revenu des exploitations à partir des données du réseau d'information comptable agricole (RICA). La deuxième utilise un modèle de programmation linéaire pour évaluer les ajustements à court terme des assolements et des revenus agricoles. La troisième étudie les effets régionaux de la réforme à partir de la construction d'un modèle appliqué d'équilibre général régional. Avec Agenda 2000, le revenu des exploitations de grandes cultures baisse en moyenne de 18 % lorsque les gains de productivité sur la période sont pris en compte. S'agissant de l'évolution des cultures entre elles, la baisse des surfaces en tournesol est la plus marquée : de -20 % à -70 % selon les scénarii de prix étudiés. Sur les différentes altematives étudiées, il ressort en priorité deux résultats marquants : des économies potentielles sur les charges de mécanisation et un agrandissement de la surface de l'exploitation. Au niveau régional, la réforme entraînerait une faible progression de la valeur produite par les activités agricoles dans leur ensemble (+2% au mieux) mais une forte diminution de celle produite par les industries agroalimentaires (-15% en moyenne) ; du point de vue des consommateurs, la réforme serait bénéfique puisque permettant d'augmenter leur bien-être. L'enquête réalisée auprès de la filière régionale collecte de grains montre que négociants et coopératives sont aujourd'hui majoritairement préoccupés par le court terme : chute prévisible de leur marge, organisation interne suite à la loi sur la réduction du temps de travail et réalisation d'investissement pour le respect des nouvelles règles de sécurité mais également pour le développement d'une politique de qualité. Enfin, les enjeux majeurs identifiés portent sur la capacité des organismes stockeurs à supporter une nouvelle baisse des marges et la mise en place d'une organisation de la production pour répondre à un marché de plus en plus ouvert et segmenté. CC : 430A02D; 002A32A04; 002A35A07 FD : Exploitation agricole; Politique agricole; Impact économique; Assolement; Collecte; Economie régionale; Marché économique; Production végétale; Poitou Charentes; Union européenne; Etude régionale; Etude technicoéconomique; Estimation état; Etude impact; Perspective; Agenda 2000; Système agraire; Système exploitation agricole; Système production; Plante céréalière; Plante oléagineuse; Helianthus annuus; Coopération agricole; Organisme stockeur; Grain; Céréale; Graine oléagineuse; Graine tournesol; Aide financière; Modélisation; Programmation linéaire; Simulation numérique; Modèle équilibre général; RICA (réseau d'information comptable agricole); 1997; 2002; 2004; 1997-2004; Grande culture; Politique agricole commune (CE); REVENU DE L'EXPLOITATION; ADAPTATION DE LA PRODUCTION FG : France; Europe; Econométrie; Economie agricole; Modèle économétrique; Industrie alimentaire; Production agricole ED : Farming; Economic impact; Crop shift; Gathering; Poitou Charentes; Arable crop; Common Agricultural Policy (EC); FARM INCOME; ADJUSTMENT OF PRODUCTION EG : France; Europe SD : Explotación agrícola; Impacto económico; Sucesión cultivo; Colecta; Poitou Charentes; Política agrícola común (CE); RENTA DE LA EXPLOTACION; AJUSTE AGRARIO LO : INIST-GR 1724.354000092419940000 626/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0430756 INIST ET : Modeling four-directional pedestrian flows AU : BLUE (Victor J.); ADLER (Jeffrey L.) AF : Planning and Program Management Group, New York State Department of Transportation, 4 Burnett Boulevard/Poughkeepsie, NY 12603/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, Center for Infrastructure and Transportation Studies, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute/Troy, NY 12180-3590/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2000; No. 1710; Pp. 20-27; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The objective of this study is to explore the modeling of multidirectional pedestrian flows. The complex interactions between flow entities within m-directional space present challenges that cannot be readily handled by existing bidirectional flow models. A cellular automata microsimulation model for four-directional flow is prescribed. This model, built on previous bidirectional models developed by the authors, additionally seeks to manage cross-directional conflicts. Performance of this function in the simulation of unidirectional, bidirectional, cross-directional, and four-directional flows is presented. The applications extend to m-directional terminal facility design and to four-directional street corners, a vital component In any network model of pedestrians. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Trafic piéton; Ecoulement trafic; Direction; Simulation numérique; Conflit; Implémentation; Vitesse déplacement; Densité; Congrès international ED : Road traffic; Pedestrian traffic; Traffic flow; Direction; Numerical simulation; Conflict; Implementation; Speed; Density; International conference SD : Tráfico carretera; Tráfico peatones; Flujo tráfico; Dirección; Simulación numérica; Conflicto; Ejecución; Velocidad desplazamiento; Densidad; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-10459B.354000099423440030 627/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0305354 INIST ET : Estimated event-free life expectancy after autograft aortic root replacement in adults AU : TAKKENBERG (Johanna J. M.); EIJKEMANS (Marinus J. C.); VAN HERWERDEN (Lex A.); STEYERBERG (Ewout W.); GRUNKEMEIER (Gary L.); HABBEMA (J. Dik F.); BOGERS (Ad J. J. C.); CARPENTIER (Alain); POMAR (José L.) AF : Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, and the Center for Clinical Decision Sciences, Department of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas; Department of Cardiovascular Surgery and Organ Transplantation, Hôpital Europeen Georges Pompidou/Paris/France (1 aut.); Department of Surgery, Hospital Clinic, University of Barcelona/Barcelona/Espagne (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : The Annals of thoracic surgery; ISSN 0003-4975; Coden ATHSAK; Etats-Unis; Da. 2001; Vol. 71; No. 5 SUP; S344-S348; Bibl. 11 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background. Autograft aortic root replacement is an established therapeutic option for young adults with aortic valve disease. Unfortunately, most series are small with a limited follow-up. Meta-analysis and microsimulation modeling were used to predict long-term outcome based on currently available midterm data. Methods. We combined our center's experience with autograft aortic root replacement in 85 adult patients in a meta-analysis with reported results of three other hospitals. The outcomes of this meta-analysis were entered in a microsimulation model, calculating (event-free) life expectancy after autograft aortic root replacement. Results. The pooled results comprised 380 patients with a total follow-up of 1,077 patient-years. Mean age was 37 years (range 16 to 68 years). Male/female ratio was 2.7. Operative mortality was 2.6% (n = 10); during follow-up 6 more patients died. Linearized annual risk estimates were 0.5% for thromboembolism, 0.3% for endocarditis, and 0.4% for nonstructural valve failure. Structural autograft failure requiring reoperation occurred in 5 patients, and a Weibull function was constructed accordingly. Using this information, the microsimulation model predicted age- and gender-specific mean, reoperation-free, and event-free life expectancy. Conclusions. Based on current evidence the calculated average autograft-related reoperation-free life expectancy is 16 years. The combination of meta-analysis and microsimulation provides a promising and powerful tool for estimating long-term outcome after aortic valve replacement. CC : 002B25E FD : Homogreffe; Valvule aortique; Valvule pulmonaire; Adulte; Estimation; Exploration; Métaanalyse; Modèle simulation; Pronostic; Mortalité; Morbidité; Long terme; Méthode analyse; Méthode Monte Carlo; Intervention Ross; Espérance vie FG : Homme; Greffe; Chirurgie ED : Homograft; Aortic valve; Pulmonary valve; Adult; Estimation; Exploration; Metaanalysis; Simulation model; Prognosis; Mortality; Morbidity; Long term; Analysis method; Monte Carlo method EG : Human; Graft; Surgery SD : Homoinjerto; Válvula aórtica; Válvula pulmonar; Adulto; Estimación; Exploración; Mataanálisis; Modelo simulación; Pronóstico; Mortalidad; Morbilidad; Largo plazo; Método análisis; Método Monte Carlo LO : INIST-13779.354000098280550300 628/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0297285 INIST ET : Impact of systematic false-negative test results on the performance of faecal occult blood screening AU : LOEVE (F.); BOER (R.); VAN OORTMARSSEN (G. J.); VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (M.); HABBEMA (J. D. F.) AF : Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Erasmus University Rotterdam, PO Box 1738./3000 DR Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : European journal of cancer : (1990); ISSN 0959-8049; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2001; Vol. 37; No. 7; Pp. 912-917; Bibl. 28 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The impact of systematic false-negative test results on mortality reduction and on programme sensitivity of annual faecal occult blood testing in ages 50-84 years is explored using a microsimulation model. We made calculations for test sensitivities of 80, 50 and 30%. In order to reproduce a cancer detection rate of 2.2 per 1000 at the first screening, the corresponding mean preclinical sojourn times had to be 1.42, 2.30 and 3.84 years, respectively. The fraction systematic results among the false-negative results is varied between 0 and 100%. With 80% test sensitivity, the reduction in mortality due to screening decreases from 25% without systematic results to 23% when all false-negative results are systematic and the programme sensitivity decreases from 63 to 58%. With 30% test sensitivity, mortality reduction decreases from 21 to 11% and programme sensitivity decreases from 52 to 27%. The impact of systematic false-negative lest results is important if annual FOBT screening is considered. CC : 002B24O14 FD : Carcinome; Côlon; Rectum; Dépistage; Examen laboratoire; Sang; Fèces; Sensibilité; Spécificité; Faux négatif; Simulation ordinateur; Evaluation performance; Technique; Diagnostic; Homme; Sang occulte FG : Tumeur maligne; Appareil digestif pathologie; Intestin pathologie; Côlon pathologie; Rectum pathologie ED : Carcinoma; Colon; Rectum; Medical screening; Laboratory investigations; Blood; Feces; Sensitivity; Specificity; False negative; Computer simulation; Performance evaluation; Technique; Diagnosis; Human EG : Malignant tumor; Digestive diseases; Intestinal disease; Colonic disease; Rectal disease SD : Carcinoma; Colón; Recto; Descubrimiento; Examen laboratorio; Sangre; Heces; Sensibilidad; Especificidad; Negativo falso; Simulación computadora; Evaluación prestación; Técnica; Diagnóstico; Hombre LO : INIST-12648.354000095263940130 629/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0292061 INIST ET : Challenging issues in modeling deterioration of combined sewers AU : WIRAHADIKUSUMAH (Reini); ABRAHAM (Dulcy); ISELEY (Tom) AF : Blackhawk-PAS, 220 Briar Creek Road/Greer, SC 29650/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); School of Civ. Engrg., Purdue Univ./West Lafayette, IN 47907/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of infrastructure systems; ISSN 1076-0342; Coden JITSE4; Etats-Unis; Da. 2001; Vol. 7; No. 2; Pp. 77-84; Bibl. 25 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The understanding of sewer deterioration mechanisms helps asset managers in developing deterioration models to estimate whether sewers have deteriorated sufficiently for likely collapses. While an accurate deterioration model is a significant component of an infrastructure management system, research in the area of deterioration modeling of sewer systems in the United States is still in its infancy. Research in the area of highways has matured and has become the basis for studies in sewer systems. Modeling the deterioration of highway systems involves methods that vary in complexity from Markov-chains-based models to econometric models. This paper presents the use of Markov-chains-based models in conjunction with nonlinear optimization for extending infrastructure management modeling to sewer systems. Modeling the structural condition of sewers using the Markov-chains-based model has its own challenges. This paper discusses the problems encountered in developing deterioration models for sewer management systems and suggests some possible improvements for deterioration modeling of combined sewer systems. CC : 001D14K; 001D14E02; 001D14C03; 295 FD : Egout unitaire; Détérioration; Simulation numérique; Analyse mécanisme; Chaîne Markov; Modèle économétrique; Gestion; Etude cas; Indiana; Classification; Analyse dommage; Régression linéaire FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Combined sewer; Deterioration; Numerical simulation; Mechanism analysis; Markov chain; Econometric model; Management; Case study; Indiana; Classification; Failure analysis; Linear regression EG : United States; North America; America SD : Escurrimiento unitario; Deterioración; Simulación numérica; Análisis mecánismo; Cadena Markov; Modelo econométrico; Gestión; Estudio caso; Indiana; Clasificación; Análisis avería; Regresión lineal LO : INIST-26269.354000098913760050 630/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0287257 INIST ET : Technology adoption in agriculture: implications for ground water conservation in the Texas high plains AU : ARABIYAT (Talah S.); SEGARRA (Eduardo); JOHNSON (Jason L.) AF : Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Box 42132, Texas Tech University/Lubbock, TX 79409-2132/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); Texas Agricultural Extension Service, Texas A&M Research and Extension Center, 7887 US Hwy., 87 North, Texas A&M University/San Angelo, TX, 76901-9714/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Resources, conservation and recycling; ISSN 0921-3449; Pays-Bas; Da. 2001; Vol. 32; No. 2; Pp. 147-156; Bibl. 20 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The impact of technology adoption (advanced irrigation technologies and anticipated biotechnological advances) on the sustainability of agricultural activities in the Texas High Plains of the US is evaluated in this study. Specifically, a county-wide dynamic optimization model is used to (a) determine optimal ground water use levels and cropping patterns, and (b) evaluate the impacts of irrigation technology and biotechnology adoption on ground water use. The results indicate that current cropland allocation and levels of advanced irrigation technology adoption are not close to optimal. Approaching the issue of sustainability, the results show that the net present value of returns trade-off to achieve ground water conservation, in terms of what producers would have to give up to achieve ground water supply stability, would be relatively small. CC : 001E01N03; 002A32C03B; 226A03 FD : Agriculture; Biotechnologie; Irrigation; Progrès technique; Technologie avancée; Approvisionnement eau; Conservation eau; Impact économique; Impact environnement; Assolement; Occupation sol; Production végétale; Rendement; Rentabilité; Modélisation; Optimisation économique; Simulation numérique; Modèle dynamique; Modèle économétrique; Modèle simulation; Scénario; Eau souterraine; Nappe eau; Texas; Grandes Plaines Amérique; Etude impact; Etude régionale; Etude sur modèle; Etude technicoéconomique; Aquifère Ogallala; Comté Hale Texas; Agriculture durable; ADOPTION DE L'INNOVATION; UTILISATION DE L'EAU; Irrigation LEPA FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique; Economie agricole; Economie environnement; Environnement; Gestion ressource eau; Hydrogéologie; Socioéconomie; Système agraire; Système production ED : Agriculture; Biotechnology; Irrigation; Technical progress; Advanced technology; Water supply; Water conservation; Economic impact; Environment impact; Crop shift; Land use; Plant production; Yield; Profitability; Modeling; Economic optimization; Numerical simulation; Dynamic model; Econometric model; Simulation model; Script; Ground water; Aquifers; Texas; Great Plains of America; Impact study; Regional study; Model study; Technicoeconomic study; Sustainable agriculture; INNOVATION ADOPTION; WATER USE; Low Energy Precision Application irrigation EG : United States; North America; America; Agricultural economics; Environment economy; Environment; Water resource management; Hydrogeology; Socioeconomics; Agricultural system; Production system SD : Agricultura; Biotecnología; Irrigación; Progreso técnico; Tecnología avanzada; Alimentación agua; Conservación agua; Impacto económico; Impacto medio ambiente; Sucesión cultivo; Ocupación terreno; Produccíon vegetal; Rendimiento; Rentabilidad; Modelización; Optimización económica; Simulación numérica; Modelo dinámico; Modelo econométrico; Modelo simulación; Argumento; Agua subterránea; Capa agua; Texas; Grandes Llanuras América; Estudio impacto; Estudio regional; Estudio sobre modelo; Estudio técnicoeconómico; Agricultura sostenible; ADOPCION DE INNOVACIONES; USO DEL AGUA LO : INIST-16839.354000095343070040 631/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0234905 INIST ET : Benefits of split intersections AU : BARED (Joe G.); KAISAR (Evangelos I.) AF : Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center, FHWA, 6300 George-town Pike/McLean, VA 22101-2296/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland/College Park, MD 20742/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2000; No. 1737; Pp. 34-41; Bibl. 8 ref. LA : Anglais EA : As urban and suburban intersections become more congested, a likely remedy for recurring traffic jams is grade separation in the form of diamond or tight diamond interchanges. A more economical intersection configuration to relieve congestion has been built overseas. The major highway is separated into two-directional, one-way roads comparable to an at-grade diamond junction known as the split intersection. The split intersection facilitates smoother flows with less driver delay, mainly by reducing the number of required signal phases from four to three. The success of converting to the split intersection has been analyzed by using deterministic methods that showed increased capacity and noticeable reduction in delay. The analysis methodology relies on a microsimulation technique to predicate previous claims and provide economic benefits. Comparisons of vehicular delay between the single and the split intersection revealed substantial savings in travel delay, particularly for higher entering volumes and higher left-turning movements. The findings provide guidance to planners and designers on the expected benefits of converting a four-lane by four-lane single intersection to the split intersection. CC : 001D14O02; 001D15C; 295 FD : Croisement routier; Intersection; Evaluation performance; Zone urbaine; Zone suburbaine; Congestion trafic; Distribution; Ecoulement trafic; Congrès international ED : Cross roads; Intersection; Performance evaluation; Urban area; Suburban zone; Traffic congestion; Distribution; Traffic flow; International conference SD : Intersección carretera; Intersección; Evaluación prestación; Zona urbana; Zona suburbana; Congestión tráfico; Distribución; Flujo tráfico; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-10459B.354000093934560050 632/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0214807 INIST ET : Prognosis after aortic valve replacement with a bioprosthesis: Predictions based on meta-analysis and microsimulation AU : PUVIMANASINGHE (J. P. A.); STEYERBERG (E. W.); TAKKENBERG (J. J. M.); EIJKEMANS (M. J. C.); VAN HERWERDEN (L. A); BOGERS (A. J. J. C.); HABBEMA (J. D. F.) AF : Center for Clinical Decision Sciences, Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas; Department of Cardio-thoracic Surgery, Erasmus University Medical Center/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Circulation : (New York, N.Y.); ISSN 0009-7322; Coden CIRCAZ; Etats-Unis; Da. 2001; Vol. 103; No. 11; Pp. 1535-1541; Bibl. 32 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background-Bioprostheses are widely used as an aortic valve substitute, but knowledge about prognosis is still incomplete. The purpose of this study was to provide insight into the age-related life expectancy and actual risks of reoperation and valve-related events of patients after aortic valve replacement with a porcine bioprosthesis. Methods and Results-We conducted a meta-analysis of 9 selected reports on stented porcine bioprostheses, including 5837 patients with a total follow-up of 31 874 patient-years. The annual rates of valve thrombosis, thromboembolism, hemorrhage, and nonstructural dysfunction were 0.03%, 0.87%, 0.38%, and 0.38%, respectively. The annual rate of endocarditis was estimated at 0.68% for >6 months of implantation and was 5 times as high during the first 6 months. Structural valve deterioration was described with a Weibull model that incorporated lower risks for older patients. These estimates were used to parameterize, calibrate, and validate a mathematical microsimulation model. The model was used to predict life expectancy and actual risks of reoperation and valve-related events after implantation for patients of different ages. For a 65-year-old male, these figures were 11.3 years, 28%, and 47%, respectively. Conclusions-The combination of meta-analysis with microsimulation enabled a detailed insight into the prognosis after aortic valve replacement with a bioprosthesis for patients of different ages. This information will be useful for patient counseling and clinical decision making. It also could serve as a baseline for the evaluation of newer valve types. CC : 002B25E FD : Hétérogreffe; Origine animale; Porc; Homme; Valvule aortique; Pronostic; Morbidité; Mortalité; Métaanalyse; Simulation mathématique FG : Artiodactyla; Ungulata; Mammalia; Vertebrata; Greffe; Chirurgie ED : Heterograft; Animal origin; Pig; Human; Aortic valve; Prognosis; Morbidity; Mortality; Metaanalysis; Mathematical simulation EG : Artiodactyla; Ungulata; Mammalia; Vertebrata; Graft; Surgery SD : Heteroinjerto; Origen animal; Cerdo; Hombre; Válvula aórtica; Pronóstico; Morbilidad; Mortalidad; Mataanálisis; Simulación matemática LO : INIST-5907.354000098735150090 633/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0208301 INIST ET : Effects of improved morbidity rates on active life expectancy and eligibility for long-term care services AU : LADITKA (Sarah B.); LADITKA (James N.) AF : State University of New York/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Syracuse University/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of applied gerontology; ISSN 0733-4648; Etats-Unis; Da. 2001; Vol. 20; No. 1; Pp. 39-56; Bibl. 1 p.3/4 LA : Anglais EA : This study examines effects of better health on active life expectancy and eligibility for long-term care services, using data from the 1984-1990 Longitudinal Study ofAging and microsimulation techniques. Results show that better health increases total life expectancy (TLE), the proportion of life spent unimpaired, and the amount of time spent unimpaired. Women experience larger proportional increases in active life expectancy under assumptions of better health. Better health also reduces the proportion of men and women who would be eligible for long-term care services. However, better health decreases the proportion of men eligible for long-term care services more than it decreases the eligible proportion of women. The results reinforce the importance of focusing on policies designed to promote healthy lifestyles and to reduce the prevalence of chronic conditions. CC : 002B30A01C FD : Service santé; Long terme; Morbidité; Longévité; Santé; Etats Unis; Dépendance fonctionnelle; Evolution; Santé publique; Modèle simulation; Personne âgée FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique; Homme ED : Health service; Long term; Morbidity; Longevity; Health; United States; Functional dependence; Evolution; Public health; Simulation model; Elderly EG : North America; America; Human SD : Servicio sanidad; Largo plazo; Morbilidad; Longevidad; Salud; Estados Unidos; Dependencia funcional; Evolución; Salud pública; Modelo simulación; Anciano LO : INIST-21977.354000098702300030 634/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0202411 INIST ET : Modeling the commute activity-travel pattern of workers : Formulation and empirical analysis AU : BHAT (Chandra) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, ECJ 6.810, University of Texas at Austin/Austin, Texas 78712/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation science; ISSN 0041-1655; Coden TRSCBJ; Etats-Unis; Da. 2001; Vol. 35; No. 1; Pp. 61-79; Bibl. 32 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper proposes a methodological framework to analyze the activity and travel pattern of workers during the evening commute. The framework uses a discrete-continuous econometric system to model jointly the decision to participate in an activity during the evening commute and the following attributes of the participation: activity type, activity duration, and travel time deviation to the activity location relative to the direct travel time from work to home. The model parameters are estimated using a sample of workers from the 1991 Boston Household Activity Survey. The paper also presents mathematical expressions to evaluate the effect of changes in sociodemographic variables and policy-relevant exogenous variables on the temporal pattern of trips and cold starts attributable to commute stops. The application of the model indicates that failure to accommodate the joint nature of the activity decisions during the evening commute can lead to misdirected policy actions for traffic congestion alleviation and for mobile-source emissions reduction. CC : 001D15A FD : Transport voyageur; Simulation numérique; Activité; Itinéraire; Soir; Travailleur; Modèle économétrique; Facteur sociodémographique; Source information; Analyse multivariable; Durée trajet; Calcul erreur; Application ED : Passenger transportation; Numerical simulation; Activity; Route; Evening; Worker; Econometric model; Sociodemographic factor; Information source; Multivariate analysis; Travel time; Error analysis; Application SD : Transporte pasajero; Simulación numérica; Actividad; Itinerario; Tarde; Trabajador; Modelo econométrico; Factor sociodemográfico; Fuente información; Análisis multivariable; Duración trayecto; Cálculo error; Aplicación LO : INIST-13698.354000098732000050 635/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0184740 INIST ET : Notes on financial econometrics AU : TAUCHEN (George); HSIAO (C.) AF : Department of Economics, Duke University, PO Box 90097, Social Science Building/Durham, NC 27708-0097/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Economics, University of Southern California, University Park/Los Angeles, CA 90089-0253/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2001; Vol. 100; No. 1; Pp. 57-64; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : The first part of the discussion reviews recent successes in modeling of discrete time financial data and argues that a direct approach is better suited than stochastic volatility. The second part reviews recent work on estimating continuous time models with emphasis on simulation-based techniques and joint estimation of the risk neutral and objective probability distributions. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001D01A01 FD : Méthode statistique; Finance; Prix; Volatilité; Econométrie; Processus stochastique; Loi normale; Economie mathématique; Modèle statistique; Indice économique; Polynôme Hermite; Temps continu; Mouvement brownien; Méthode moment; Simulation; Modèle économétrique; Article synthèse; Temps discret; Donnée discrète; Donnée financière; Modèle simulation; Estimation statistique; Loi probabilité; Loi risque neutre; Volatilité stochastique; Erreur fixation prix; Econométrie financière ED : Statistical method; Finance; Price; Volatility; Econometrics; Stochastic process; Gaussian distribution; Mathematical economy; Statistical model; Economic index; Hermite polynomial; Continuous time; Brownian motion; Moment method; Simulation; Econometric model; Review; Discrete time; Discrete data; Financial data; Simulation model; Statistical estimation; Probability distribution; Risk neutral distribution; Stochastic volatility; Pricing error; Financial econometrics SD : Método estadístico; Finanza; Precio; Volatibilidad; Econometría; Proceso estocástico; Curva Gauss; Economía matemática; Modelo estadístico; Indice económico; Polinomio Hermite; Tiempo continuo; Movimiento browniano; Método momento; Simulación; Modelo econométrico; Artículo síntesis; Tiempo discreto; Variable discreta; Datos financieros; Modelo simulación; Estimación estadística; Ley probabilidad LO : INIST-16460.354000094056310110 636/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0184725 INIST ET : Achievements and challenges in econometric methodology AU : HENDRY (David F.); HSIAO (C.) AF : Department of Economics, Oxford University/Oxford/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.); Department of Economics, University of Southern California, University Park/Los Angeles, CA 90089-0253/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2001; Vol. 100; No. 1; Pp. 7-10; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Disputes about econometric methodology have abounded in econometrics, yet their attempted resolution has attracted only a small proportion of research elfort. Recently, computer-automated general-to-specific reductions have been shown to perform well in Monte Carlo experiments, recovering the DGP specification from a much larger general model with size and power close to commencing from the DGP itself, Thus, future developments appear promising, with many ideas awaiting implementation and both theoretical and simulation evaluation. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001D01A01 FD : Méthode statistique; Econométrie; Méthodologie; Etat actuel; Economie mathématique; Modèle statistique; Indice économique; Analyse assistée; Méthode Monte Carlo; Test Student; Régression; Modèle économétrique; Méthode réduction; Spécification modèle; Implémentation; Sélection modèle; Ingénerie donnée; Gestion donnée; DGP ED : Statistical method; Econometrics; Methodology; State of the art; Mathematical economy; Statistical model; Economic index; Computer aided analysis; Monte Carlo method; Student test; Regression; Econometric model; Reduction method; Model specification; Implementation; Model selection; Data mining; Data management; Data generation process SD : Método estadístico; Econometría; Metodología; Estado actual; Economía matemática; Modelo estadístico; Indice económico; Análisis asistido; Método Monte Carlo; Prueba Student; Regresión; Modelo econométrico; Método reducción; Especificación modelo; Ejecución LO : INIST-16460.354000094056310020 637/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0167055 INIST ET : Nested random effects estimation in unbalanced panel data AU : ANTWEILER (Werner) AF : Faculty of Commerce, The University of British Columbia, 2053 Main Mall/Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2/Canada (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 2001; Vol. 101; No. 2; Pp. 295-313; Bibl. 24 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Panel data in many econometric applications exhibit a nested (hierarchical) structure. For example, data on firms may be grouped by industry, or data on air pollution may be grouped by observation station within a city, city within a country, and by country. In these cases, one can control for unobserved group and sub-group effects using a nested-error component model. A double-nested unbalanced panel is examined and a corresponding maximum likelihood estimator is derived. A generalization to even higher-order nesting is feasible. A practical example and a Monte-Carlo simulation compare the new estimator against the non-nested ML estimator. The style of presentation is intended to aid applied econometricians in implementing the new ML estimator. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02H02B; 001D01A10 FD : Méthode statistique; Econométrie; Maximum vraisemblance; Erreur systématique; Fonction vraisemblance; Théorie statistique; Pollution air; Méthode Monte Carlo; Economie mathématique; Finance; Gestion portefeuille; Simulation; Echantillon; Effet aléatoire; Estimation statistique; Modèle économétrique; Estimation erreur; Simulation numérique ED : Statistical method; Econometrics; Maximum likelihood; Bias; Likelihood function; Statistical theory; Air pollution; Monte Carlo method; Mathematical economy; Finance; Portfolio management; Simulation; Sample; Random effect; Statistical estimation; Econometric model; Error estimation; Numerical simulation SD : Método estadístico; Econometría; Maxima verosimilitud; Error sistemático; Función verosimilitud; Teoría estadística; Contaminación aire; Método Monte Carlo; Economía matemática; Finanza; Gestión cartera; Simulación; Muestra; Efecto aleatorio; Estimación estadística; Modelo econométrico; Estimación error; Simulación numérica LO : INIST-16460.354000097454990040 638/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0163502 BDSP FT : Vers une réduction des disparités hommes-femmes ? AU : BONNET (C.); COLIN (C.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : RETRAITE ET SOCIETE; ISSN 1167-4687; France; Da. 2000; No. 32; Pp. 48-61; graph. LA : Français FA : Cet article dresse un état des lieux des différences constatées actuellement entre hommes et femmes en matière de retraite puis se livre à un exercice de prospective à l'horizon 2000 à l'aide d'un modèle de microsimulation dynamique. CC : 002B30A11 FD : Femme; Activité professionnelle; France; Modèle; Projection perspective; Marché travail; Age; Retraite FG : Homme; Europe ED : Woman; Professional activity; France; Models; Perspective projection; Labour market; Age; Retirement EG : Human; Europe SD : Mujer; Actividad profesional; Francia; Modelo; Proyección perspectiva; Mercado trabajo; Edad; Jubilación LO : BDSP/FNG-13403, FNCOLL 639/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0158136 INIST ET : Transportation asset management: The value of enterprise-based financial reporting AU : STALEBRINK (Odd J.); GIFFORD (Jonathan L.) AF : Department of Public and International Affairs and The Institute of Public Policy, George Mason University/Fairfax, VA 22030/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2000; No. 1729; Pp. 51-56; Bibl. 32 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The adoption of enterprise-based financial reporting practices in the public transportation infrastructure has the potential to facilitate the use of profitability analysis and, thus, the management of public transportation infrastructure Assets. However, a major challenge for successful implementation is the ability to generate in a public setting what the Governmental Accounting Standards Board refers to as &dquot;satisfactory&dquot; system input values. Because market prices are not generated in these environments, they must be simulated. Two promising approaches for generating such measurements are reviewed: benefit-cost analysis and econometric studies of the productivity impacts of infrastructure investments (on productivity studies). Although the two approaches are subject to several weaknesses that inhibit them from generating satisfactory system input values, ongoing methodological advances in both indicate fair prospects for generating such values in the future. Therefore, a dismissal of enterprise financial reporting practices for public transportation infrastructure may be premature. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Evaluation performance; Gestion financière; Développement entreprise; Résultat financier; Gestion organisation; Transport public; Infrastructure transport; Simulation numérique; Analyse coût efficacité; Modèle économétrique; Productivité; Congrès international ED : Transportation; Performance evaluation; Financial management; Firm development; Financial result; Organization management; Public transportation; Transportation infrastructure; Numerical simulation; Cost efficiency analysis; Econometric model; Productivity; International conference SD : Transportes; Evaluación prestación; Administración financiera; Desarrollo empresa; Gestión organización; Transporte público; Infraestructura transporte; Simulación numérica; Análisis costo eficacia; Modelo econométrico; Productividad; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-10459B.354000094135770070 640/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0150746 INIST ET : Cellular automata microsimulation for modeling bi-directional pedestrian walkways AU : BLUE (Victor J.); ADLER (Jeffrey L.) AF : Planning and Program Management Group, New York State Department of Transportation, 4 Burnett Bloulevard/Poughkeepsie, NY 12603/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, Center for Infrastructure and Transportation Studies, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 110 8th St./Troy, NY 12180-3590/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part B : methodological; ISSN 0191-2615; Coden TRBMDY; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2001; Vol. 35; No. 3; Pp. 293-312; Bibl. 30 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Pedestrian flow is inherently complex, more so than vehicular flow, and development of microscopic models of pedestrian flow has been a daunting task for researchers. This paper presents the use of Cellular automata (CA) microsimulation for modeling bi-directional pedestrian walkways. It is shown that a small rule set is capable of effectively capturing the behaviors of pedestrians at the micro-level while attaining realistic macro-level activity. The model provides for simulating three modes of bi-directional pedestrian flow: (a) flows in directionally separated lanes, (b) interspersed flow, and (c) dynamic multi-lane (DML) flow. The emergent behavior that arises from the model, termed CA-Ped, is consistent with well-established fundamental properties. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Trafic piéton; Passage piéton; Ecoulement trafic; Simulation numérique; Modèle microscopique; Automate cellulaire; Densité; Vitesse déplacement; Ecoulement bidirectionnel; Ecoulement séparé ED : Road traffic; Pedestrian traffic; Pedestrian walk; Traffic flow; Numerical simulation; Microscopic model; Cellular automaton; Density; Speed SD : Tráfico carretera; Tráfico peatones; Pasaje peatones; Flujo tráfico; Simulación numérica; Modelo microscópico; Autómata celular; Densidad; Velocidad desplazamiento LO : INIST-12377B.354000097330810050 641/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0098949 INIST ET : The global diabetes model : user friendly version 3.0 AU : BROWN (Jonathan Betz); RUSSELL (Allen); CHAN (Wiley); PEDULA (Kathryn); AICKIN (Mikel); BROWN (Jonathan Betz) AF : Center for Health Research, 3800 N. Interstate Avenue/Portland, OR 97227-1110/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut.); Center for Health Research, 3800 N. Interstate Avenue/Portland, OR 97227-1110/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Diabetes research and clinical practice; ISSN 0168-8227; Coden DRCPE9; Irlande; Da. 2000; Vol. 50; No. SUP3; S15-S46; Bibl. 32 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The attributes of Release 3.0 of the user friendly version (UFV) of the global diabetes model (GDM) are described and documented in detail. The GDM is a continuous stochastic microsimulation model of type 2 diabetes. Suitable for predicting the medical futures of both individuals with diabetes and representative diabetic populations, the GDM prediets medical events (complications of diabetes), survival, utilities, and medical care costs. Incidence rate functions for microvascular and macrovascular complications are based on a combination of published studies and analyses of data describing diabetic members of Kaiser Permanente Northwest Region, a non-profit group-model health maintenance organization. Active risk factors include average blood glucose (HbAle), systolic blood pressure (SBP), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), triglycerides, smoking status. and use of prophylactic aspirin. Events predicted include diabetic eye disease, diabetic nephropathy, peripheral neuropathy, amputation, myocardial infarction, stroke, peripheral artery disease, congestive heart failure, coronary artery surgery, coronary angioplasty, and death. CC : 002B28B FD : Diabète; Simulation ordinateur; Modèle simulation; Facteur risque; Complication; Homme FG : Endocrinopathie ED : Diabetes mellitus; Computer simulation; Simulation model; Risk factor; Complication; Human EG : Endocrinopathy SD : Diabetes; Simulación computadora; Modelo simulación; Factor riesgo; Complicación; Hombre LO : INIST-20702.354000093654540030 642/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0098867 INIST ET : The Mt. Hood challenge : cross-testing two diabetes simulation models AU : BROWN (Jonathan Betz); PALMER (Andrew J.); BISGAARD (Peter); CHAN (Wiley); PEDULA (Kathryn); RUSSELL (Allen); BROWN (Jonathan Betz) AF : Center for Health Research, 3800 North Interstate Arenue/Portland, OR 97227-1110/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut.); CORE Center for Outcomes Research, St. Johanns Ring 139/4056 Basel/Suisse (2 aut.); Noro Nordisk Health Care/Copenhagen/Danemark (3 aut.); Center for Health Research and Permanente Medical Group of the Northwest/Portland, OR 97227-1110/Etats-Unis (4 aut.); Center for Health Research, 3800 N. Interstate Avenue/Portland, OR 97227-1110/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Diabetes research and clinical practice; ISSN 0168-8227; Coden DRCPE9; Irlande; Da. 2000; Vol. 50; No. SUP3; S57-S64; Bibl. 13 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Starting from identical patients with type 2 diabetes, we compared the 20-year predictions of two computer simulation models, a 1998 version of the IMIB model and version 2.17 of the Global Diabetes Model (GDM). Primary measures of outcome were 20-year eumulative rates of: survival, first (incident) acute myocardial infarction (AMI), first stroke, proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR), maero-albuminuria (gross proteinuria, or GPR), and amputation. Standardized test patients were newly diagnosed males aged 45 or 75, with high and low levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and serum lipids. Both models generated realistic results and appropriate responses to changes in risk factors, Compared with the GDM, the IMIB model predicted much higher rates of mortality and AMI, and fewer strokes. These differences can be explained by differences in model architecture (Markov vs, microsimulation), different evidence bases for cardiovascular prediction (Framingham Heart Study cohort vs. Kaiser Permanente patients), and isolated versus interdependent prediction of cardiovascular events. Compared with IMIB, GDM predicted much higher lifetime costs, because of lower mortality and the use of a different costing method. It is feasible to cross-validate and explicate dissimilar diabetes simulation models using standardized patients. The wide differences in the model results that we observed demonstrate the need for eross-validation. We propose to hold a second Mt Hood Challenge' in 2001 and invite all diabetes modelers to attend. CC : 002B28B FD : Diabète non insulinodépendant; Simulation ordinateur; Modèle simulation; Qualité vie; Complication; Facteur risque; Traitement; Analyse coût; Prédiction; Homme FG : Endocrinopathie ED : Non insulin dependent diabetes; Computer simulation; Simulation model; Quality of life; Complication; Risk factor; Treatment; Cost analysis; Prediction; Human EG : Endocrinopathy SD : Diabetes no insulinodependiente; Simulación computadora; Modelo simulación; Calidad vida; Complicación; Factor riesgo; Tratamiento; Análisis costo; Predicción; Hombre LO : INIST-20702.354000093654540050 643/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0066643 INIST ET : Microsimulation of business performance AU : KOKIC (Philip); CHAMBERS (Ray); BEARE (Steve) AF : Insiders Wissenbasierte Systeme GmbH, Wilhelm-Theodor-Romheld-Strasse 32/55130 Mainz/Allemagne (1 aut.); Department of Social Statistics, University of Southampton/Southampton, SO17 1BJ/Royaume-Uni (2 aut.); Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, PO Box 1563/Canberra, 2601/Australie (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : International statistical review; ISSN 0306-7734; Coden ISTRDP; Pays-Bas; Da. 2000; Vol. 68; No. 3; Pp. 259-275; Abs. français; Bibl. 16 ref. LA : Anglais FA : La microsimulation sur des données d'enquêtes longitudinales peut être utilisée pour mesurer les effets de changement de la distribution et pas uniquement de la moyenne pour des performances commerciales. Cette méthode révèle ainsi un fort potentiel pour d'importantes applications dans l'élaboration de la politique économique gouvernementale. En effet, la méthode tient compte de la réponse dynamique des entreprises aux anticipations macro économiques du niveau des prix et permet donc de prédire les performances commerciales au niveau individuel plutôt qu'en moyenne. Dans ce papier, nous indiquons une méthodologie pour microsimuler des performances commerciales en prenant en compte les caractéristiques de la distribution des donnees de l'enquête sous-jacente. A l'aide d'une application sur des données d'enquête portant sur les fermes australiennes, nous montrons que la méthode peut être utilisée pour prédire la distribution de la production et des performances des fermes conditionnellement aux anticipations des prix des produits. Les microsimulations reflétent à la fois l'incertitude due aux variations climatiques d'une année à l'autre et l'incertitude liée aux prix des matières premières. CC : 001A02H02N2; 001A02H02J; 001A02H02H; 001A02H02G FD : Méthode statistique; Economie mathématique; Analyse performance; Quantile; Estimation statistique; Estimation linéaire; Régression statistique; Régression non linéaire; Estimation non paramétrique; Approvisionnement; Modélisation; Estimation paramètre; Test statistique; Comportement asymptotique; Politique économique; Simulation; Régression; Enquête; SUR; Donnée enquête; Donnée longitudinale ED : Statistical method; Mathematical economy; Performance analysis; Quantile; Statistical estimation; Linear estimation; Statistical regression; Non linear regression; Non parametric estimation; Supply; Modeling; Parameter estimation; Statistical test; Asymptotic behavior; Economic policy; Simulation; Regression; Survey SD : Método estadístico; Economía matemática; Análisis eficacia; Cuantila; Estimación estadística; Estimación lineal; Regresión estadística; Regresión no lineal; Estimación no paramétrica; Aprovisionamiento; Modelización; Estimación parámetro; Test estadístico; Comportamiento asintótico; Política económica; Simulación; Regresión; Encuesta LO : INIST-1101.354000093738880020 644/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0043269 INIST ET : More realistic models of sexually transmitted disease transmission dynamics : Sexual partnership networks, pair models, and moment closure AU : FERGUSON (Neil M.); GARNETT (Geoffrey P.) AF : Department of Genetics, University of Nottingham/Nottingham/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College School of Medicine at St. Mary's/London/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Sexually transmitted diseases; ISSN 0148-5717; Coden STRDDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 2000; Vol. 27; No. 10; Pp. 600-609; Bibl. 22 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background: Mathematical models of sexually transmitted disease transmission have proven powerful tools for interpreting observed epidemiologic pattern. However, the most commonly used formulation of such models largely fail to capture the effect of partnership concurrency and contact network structure on transmission. Goal: The development of a compartmental model of partnership formation and dissolution that includes approximations for the influence of the sexual-partner network. Study Design: Theoretical analysis of ordinary differential equation models for sexually transmitted disease transmission within sex-partner networks. Results: The approach developed advances earlier pair models, allows for the influence of concurrent sexual partnerships, and illustrates the importance of concurrency to the persistence of diseases with relatively short durations of infectiousness. The authors also illustrate that heterogeneity in risk is possible even in model populations in which all individuals follow the same behavioral rules. Conclusion: Deterministic extended pair models offer a powerful approach to modelling sexually transmitted disease transmission that usefully complement computationally intensive microsimulation models. CC : 002B05A03 FD : Maladie sexuellement transmissible; Modèle; Dynamique; Transmission; Partenaire sexuel; Epidémiologie ED : Sexually transmitted disease; Models; Dynamics; Transmission; Sex partner; Epidemiology SD : Enfermedad de transmisión sexual; Modelo; Dinámica; Transmisión; Compañero sexual; Epidemiología LO : INIST-18921.354000093407210050 645/793 NO : PASCAL 01-0000862 INIST ET : Price and inventory dynamics in petroleum product markets AU : CONSIDINE (Timothy J.); EUNNYEONG HEO AF : Department of Energy, Environmental, and Mineral Economics, The Pennsylvania State University, 203 Eric A. Walker Building/University Park, PA 16802/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); School of Civil, Urban, and Geosystem Engineering, Seoul National University, San 56-1, Shinrim/Kwanak, Seoul 151-742/Corée, République de (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy economics; ISSN 0140-9883; Coden EECODR; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2000; Vol. 22; No. 5; Pp. 527-547; Bibl. 25 ref. LA : Anglais FA : Modélisation économétrique du marché du stockage des produits pétroliers raffinés, aux Etats unis. Utilisation de ce modèle pour estimer et tester l' aptitude à prévoir l'impact de crise concernant l'offre ou la demande. CC : 001D06A01C2B; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Economie pétrolière; Produit pétrolier; Stockage; Structure marché; Modèle économétrique; Impact économique; Crise économique; Offre; Demande; Modèle simulation; Etats Unis FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Oil economy; Petroleum product; Storage; Market structure; Econometric model; Economic impact; Economic crisis; Offer; Demand; Simulation model; United States EG : North America; America SD : Economía petrolera; Producto petrolero; Almacenamiento; Estructura mercado; Modelo econométrico; Impacto económico; Crisis económica; Oferta; Petición; Modelo simulación; Estados Unidos LO : INIST-18231.354000092185210020 646/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-01-13529 INIST FT : Modèles d'équilibre de recherche d'emploi ET : (Balanced models of employment search) AU : BONTEMPS (Christian); ROBIN (Jean-Marc); ROUX (Sébastien); VAN DEN BERG (Gérard) AF : Commissariat général du plan/Paris/France DT : Rapport; Niveau monographique SO : Modèles d'équilibre de recherche d'emploi; France; Da. 1998; CGP/98-01; Pp. 240 p. LA : Français FA : L'objectif de ce rapport est d'avancer dans la construction d'un outil de simulation microéconomique du marché de travail. Les deux premières parties procèdent à une étude des propriétés du modèle de Burdett et Mortensen. Dans la première étude, les travailleurs sont supposés homogènes et les entreprises ont de façon exogène des productivités du travail différentes. Dans la seconde, les travailleurs peuvent en plus avoir des côuts d'opportunité du travail différents. Cependant, pour simplifier, nous avons supposé que les taux d'arrivée des offres aux chômeurs et aux employés étaient les mêmes. Ainsi, les chômeurs sont prêts à accepter n'importe quelle offre de salaire dès lors qu'elle est supérieure à leur coût d'opportunité du travail. La dernière étude prend acte de certaines limitations des modèles étudiés dans les les deux précédents chapitres et entreprend de les réduire. Dans chacune des trois études on a d'abord procédé à l'étude théorique du modèle, puis le modèle a fait l'objet d'une estimation sur données individuelles de travailleurs ou d'entreprises, enfin, le modèle ainsi calibré a été employé pour effectuer des simulations de politiques économiques variées CC : 52150; 521 FD : Modèle économétrique; Simulation; Emploi; Chômage; Economie; Entreprise; Marché du travail; Productivité; Prédiction; Offre d'emploi; Equilibre; Salaire ED : Econometric Model; Simulation; Employment; Unemployment; Economy; Enterprise; Labor Market; Productivity; Prediction; Situations Vacant; Equilibrium; Salary LO : INIST-RL 369.354000092347830000 647/793 NO : PASCAL 00-0533201 INIST ET : Linking harvest choices to timber supply AU : PRESTEMON (J. P.); WEAR (D. N.) AF : Economics of Forest Protection and Management, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, USDA Forest Service/Research Triangle Park, NC 27709/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Forest science; ISSN 0015-749X; Coden FOSCAD; Etats-Unis; Da. 2000; Vol. 46; No. 3; Pp. 377-389; Bibl. 24 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Aggregate timber supply by ownership was investigated for a small region by applying stand-level harvest choice models to a representative sample of stands and then aggregating to regional totals using the area-frame of the forest survey. Timber harvest choices were estimated as probit models for three ownership categories in coastal plain southern pine stands of North Carolina using individual permanent and remeasured stand-level data from last two available USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) surveys. The timber harvest decision was modeled as a function of timber values, a cost factor, and stand volume as a proxy for nontimber values. Probit models were statistically significant at 1% for all ownerships. Area expansion factors (the portion of forest area in the region represented by the sampled stand) were then combined with harvest probabilities to model the aggregate effects of price changes on timber supply, given a fixed forest area. Implied price elasticities were estimated using this modeling of aggregate effects, and a bootstrapping procedure was applied to estimate confidence limits for supply elasticities with respect to price. Our results showed that NIPF [nonidustrial private forests] and industry were elastically responsive in the aggregate when price increases are perceived as temporary but much less elastically and usually negatively responsive when increases are perceived as permanent. Results are consistent with theory of optimal rotations and highlight the critical influence of both existing inventory structure and expectations on aggregate timber supply. CC : 002A33C01 FD : Approvisionnement; Agrégat; Echelon régional; Exploitation forestière; Analyse décision; Propriétaire; Secteur privé; Secteur public; Modélisation; Modèle agrégé; Modèle économétrique; Modèle probabiliste; Simulation statistique; Décision statistique; Elasticité; Espérance mathématique; Pinus; Bois résineux; Caroline du Nord; Plaine côtière; Etude économique; Etude sur modèle; Etude régionale; Modèle probit; Foresterie non industrielle; INDUSTRIE FORESTIERE FG : Coniferales; Gymnospermae; Spermatophyta; Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique; Economie forestière; Economie mathématique; Méthode statistique; Sciences économiques ED : Supply; Aggregate; Regional scope; Forest logging; Decision analysis; Owner; Private sector; Public sector; Modeling; Aggregate model; Econometric model; Probabilistic model; Statistical simulation; Statistical decision; Elasticity; Mathematical expectation; Pinus; Softwood; North Carolina; Coastal plain; Economic study; Model study; Regional study; probit model; nonidustrial forestry; FOREST PRODUCTS INDUSTRY EG : Coniferales; Gymnospermae; Spermatophyta; United States; North America; America; Forest economics; Mathematical economy; Statistical method; Economics SD : Aprovisionamiento; Agregado; Escalafón regional; Explotación forestal; Análisis decisión; Propietario; Sector privado; Sector público; Modelización; Modelo agregado; Modelo econométrico; Modelo probabilista; Simulación estadística; Decisión estadística; Elasticidad; Esperanza matemática; Pinus; Madera de coníferas; Carolina del norte; Planicie costera; Estudio económico; Estudio sobre modelo; Estudio regional; Modelo probit; INDUSTRIA FORESTAL LO : INIST-8566.354000090992020070 648/793 NO : PASCAL 00-0528871 CEMAGREF FT : (La simulation des processus sociaux) ET : The simulation of social processes AU : GILBERT (N.) AF : DT : Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : On models and multi-agent systems for environment management; France; Da. 2000; 15 p. LA : Anglais FA : Dans son allocution, le professeur Nigel Gilbert donne un aperçu de la simulation en sciences sociales. Il décrit d'abord les différents usages de la simulation : comprendre, prévoir, aider la décision, éduquer, jouer, explorer la complexité, formaliser des théories sociales. Il montre que l'histoire du domaine nous enseigne à viser davantage la compréhension que la prédiction, et aussi que les modèles et la technologie doivent correspondre à l'objectif. Il détaille les questions principales : la relation entre les niveaux micro et macro, les processus d'auto-organisation, les effets des rationalités limitées ou de la spatialisation. Il aborde plus précisément la méthodologie de simulation : comment, partant de spécifications, élaborer des modèles et définir un protocole de validation. Il compare avec d'autres approches et discute le dilemne simplicité/réalisme, ainsi que certains pièges usuels. Il défend une approche plus déductive qu'inductive. Enfin, il présente les principaux types de modèles : équations, micro-simulation, automates cellulaires et systèmes multi-agents. EA : In his talk, Pr. Nigel Gilbert gives a general overview of the simulation in the social sciences. First, he introduces the various uses of simulation : understanding, predicting, supporting decision, training, playing, exploring complexity, formalising social theories. Then, he shows how the history of the field teaches us to aim understanding rather than predicting, and also that technology and models types should match the target. He gives some major issues : the relationship between micro and macro level, the auto-organisation processes, the effects of bounded rationality and of spatial locations. Then, he discusses more extensively the methodology for simulation : starting from specifications, building models, setting a validation protocol. He compares with other approaches and gives some insights about the simplicity/realism dilemma and some usual traps in the process. He argues for a deductive rather than inductive approach. Finally, he reviews the main types of models : equations, microsimulation, celllular automaton, and multi-agent systems. CC : 430A030; 001D16 FD : SIMULATION; METHODOLOGIE; GRISELI LO : INIST 649/793 NO : PASCAL 00-0385525 INIST ET : Issues in analyzing data and indicators for sustainable development AU : HARDI (P.); DESOUZA-HULETEY (J. A.); LENZ (Roman); PYKH (Yuri) AF : Measurement and Indicators Program, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), 161 Portage Avenue East, 6th Floor/Winnipeg, Man., R3B 0Y4/Canada (1 aut., 2 aut.); University of Applied Sciences, Schelmenwasen 4-8/72622 Nürtingen/Allemagne (1 aut.); Center for International Environmental Cooperation (INENCO), Russian Academy of Sciences, nab. Kutuzova 14/191187 St. Petersburg/Russie (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Ecological modelling; ISSN 0304-3800; Coden ECMODT; Pays-Bas; Da. 2000; Vol. 130; No. 1-3; Pp. 59-65; Bibl. 7 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper discusses data analysis, the most technical part of performance measurements. The aim is to address issues that are problematic in undertaking research on indicators and are related to a fundamental yet often neglected area of sustainable development (SD) projects. These projects, even if implemented by an expert team, are not yet in the phase to be verified by statistical and econometric methods. SD indices (descriptors of a new paradigm) deserve to be constructed by adopting more rigorous data analysis with a good statistical base. The paper will examine the relevant lessons of four empirical projects conducted by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). The challenge is how to adopt more quantitative analysis in measuring SD. This may lead to a more comprehensive method of SD performance measures and more adequate indicators that are measurable with available data and verifiable by analysis. CC : 002A14D01 FD : Gestion environnement; Méthode analyse; Développement durable; Modèle économétrique; Simulation numérique; Modèle empirique; Analyse statistique; Analyse donnée; Article synthèse ED : Environmental management; Analysis method; Sustainable development; Econometric model; Numerical simulation; Empirical model; Statistical analysis; Data analysis; Review SD : Gestiòn medio ambiente; Método análisis; Desarrollo durable; Modelo econométrico; Simulación numérica; Modelo empírico; Análisis estadístico; Análisis datos; Artículo síntesis LO : INIST-15732.354000090656170050 650/793 NO : PASCAL 00-0380770 INIST ET : Investigation of design and bias issues in case-control studies of cancer screening using microsimulation AU : CONNOR (R. J.); BOER (R.); PROROK (P. C.); WEED (D. L.) AF : Biometry Branch, Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute/Bethesda, MD/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 3 aut.); Department of Public Health and Social Medicine, Erasmus University/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (2 aut.); Preventive Oncology Branch, Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute/Bethesda, MD/Etats-Unis (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : American journal of epidemiology; ISSN 0002-9262; Coden AJEPAS; Etats-Unis; Da. 2000; Vol. 151; No. 10; Pp. 991-998; Bibl. 27 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Using a microsimulation approach, the authors examined design and bias issues in case-control studies of cancer screening. Specifically, they looked at the impact on the odds ratio of the way in which exposure to screening is defined, the type of age matching, the time scale used, and the criteria used to determine control eligibility. The results showed that defining exposure as &dquot;ever/never&dquot; screened produced, as expected, a serious bias in favor of screening. Defining exposure as being screened no later than the time the case's cancer is diagnosed has a serious bias against screening. An alternative exposure definition-screening can occur no later than the time the case would have been clinically diagnosed-eliminates the bias against screening. Further, the results showed that the type of age matching and the time scale used can produce a bias against screening and that this bias can be quite strong when case-control studies are performed in populations with a periodic screening program that is the only source of screening. Finally, control eligibility criteria had little effect. CC : 002B20E02; 002B30A01A1 FD : Tumeur maligne; Glande mammaire; Dépistage; Biais méthodologique; Modèle simulation; Epidémiologie; Méthodologie; Homme; Santé publique; Etude cas témoin FG : Glande mammaire pathologie ED : Malignant tumor; Mammary gland; Medical screening; Methodological bias; Simulation model; Epidemiology; Methodology; Human; Public health; Case control study EG : Mammary gland diseases SD : Tumor maligno; Glándula mamaria; Descubrimiento; Ruta metodológica; Modelo simulación; Epidemiología; Metodología; Hombre; Salud pública; Estudio caso control LO : INIST-663.354000087306330080 651/793 NO : PASCAL 00-0370863 INIST ET : A multi-level cross-classified model for discrete response variables AU : BHAT (C. R.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering, University of Texas at Austin/Austin, TX, 78712-1076/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part B : methodological; ISSN 0191-2615; Coden TRBMDY; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2000; Vol. 34; No. 7; Pp. 567-582; Bibl. 1 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : In many spatial analysis contexts, the variable of interest is discrete and there is spatial clustering of observations. This paper formulates a model that accommodates clustering along more than one dimension in the context of a discrete response variable. For example, in a travel mode choice context, individuals are clustered by both the home zone in which they live as well as by their work locations. The model formulation takes the form of a mixed logit structure and is estimated by maximum likelihood using a combination of Gaussian quadrature and quasi-Monte Carlo simulation techniques. An application to travel mode choice suggests that ignoring the spatial context in which individuals make mode choice decisions can lead to an inferior data fit as well as provide inconsistent evaluations of transportation policy measures. CC : 001D15A FD : Transports; Choix modal; Analyse spatiale; Modèle logit; Système n niveaux; Méthode Monte Carlo; Modèle économétrique; Analyse amas; Fonction discrète; Quadrature; Méthode Gauss; Simulation numérique; Méthode empirique; Trajet domicile travail; Zone urbaine ED : Transportation; Modal choice; Spatial analysis; Logit model; Multilevel system; Monte Carlo method; Econometric model; Cluster analysis; Discrete function; Quadrature; Gauss method; Numerical simulation; Empirical method; Travel to work; Urban area SD : Transportes; Elección modal; Análisis espacial; Modelo logit; Sistema n niveles; Método Monte Carlo; Modelo econométrico; Analisis cluster; Función discreta; Cuadratura; Método Gauss; Simulación numérica; Método empírico; Trayecto domicilio trabajo; Zona urbana LO : INIST-12377B.354000090629450020 652/793 NO : PASCAL 00-0302393 INIST ET : Forecasting freight transportation demand with the space-time multinomial probit model AU : GARRIDO (R. A.); MAHMASSANI (H. S.); MAHMASSANI (Hani S.) AF : Department of Transportation Engineering, School of Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Casilla 306, Codigo 105/Santiago/Chili (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering and Department of Management Science and Information Systems, The University of Texas at Austin/Austin, TX 78712/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); University of Texas at Austin/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part B : methodological; ISSN 0191-2615; Coden TRBMDY; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2000; Vol. 34; No. 5; Pp. 403-418; Bibl. 4 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Freight transportation demand is a highly variable process over space and time. A multinomial probit (MNP) model with spatially and temporally correlated error structure is proposed for freight demand analysis for tactical/operational planning applications. The resulting model has a large number of alternatives, and estimation is performed using Monte-Carlo simulation to evaluate the MNP likelihoods. The model is successfully applied to a data set of actual shipments served by a large truckload carrier. In addition to the substantive insights obtained from the estimation results, forecasting tests are performed to assess the model's predictive ability for operational purposes. CC : 001D15B FD : Transport marchandise; Demande transport; Simulation numérique; Loi multinomiale; Espace temps; Modèle prévision; Planification; Méthode Monte Carlo; Modèle économétrique; Application; Analyse factorielle; Valeur propre; Etude marché; Variation saisonnière; Modèle Probit ED : Freight transportation; Transport demand; Numerical simulation; Multinomial distribution; Space time; Forecast model; Planning; Monte Carlo method; Econometric model; Application; Factor analysis; Eigenvalue; Market survey; Seasonal variation SD : Transporte mercadería; Demanda transporte; Simulación numérica; Ley multinomial; Espacio tiempo; Modelo previsión; Planificación; Método Monte Carlo; Modelo econométrico; Aplicación; Análisis factorial; Valor propio; Estudio mercado; Variación estacional LO : INIST-12377B.354000088528410050 653/793 NO : PASCAL 00-0288197 INIST ET : An econometric irrigated crop allocation model for analyzing the impact of water restriction policies AU : RECIO (B.); RUBIO (F.); LOMBAN (J.); IBANEZ (J.) AF : Department of Applied Mathematics in Agricultural Engineering, Universidad, Politécnica de Madrid/Espagne (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); Department of Economic and Agricultural Social Sciences, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid/Espagne (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Agricultural water management; ISSN 0378-3774; Coden AWMADF; Pays-Bas; Da. 1999; Vol. 42; No. 1; Pp. 47-63; Bibl. 12 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The objective of the Spanish government-funded GESMO project is to research on new water policy evaluation and monitoring tools, applied to aquifer 8/23 in the Eastern Mancha, which covers one of the most important areas under the charge of the Júcar Catchment Confederation. The project is to output two types of end products: Decision Support Systems for defining water use policies, including economic impact and environmental simulators within a single multi-criteria decision-making environment and Measure Monitoring and Control Systems employing tele-detection and simulation of crop water needs. The Decision Support Systems will include three, highly complex, theoretical models in a single information technology product: a three-dimensional aquifer 8/23 behavior simulation model, an econometric model to predict crop allocation depending on the economic environment, water availabilities, etc., and an automatic alternative generation and evaluation system based on a multi-criteria methodology. The objective of the system is to advise on possible water policies and how they would materialize into spatially and temporally distributed water quotas (m3/ha) with the objective of both safeguarding the aquifer in the medium and long term and increasing the economic profitability of regional agriculture. In this paper, a regional econometric model is presented for studying the impact of water use quotas on the main irrigated crops allocation in the region. CC : 002A32C03B FD : Irrigation; Gestion ressource eau; Aspect économique; Protection environnement; Modèle économétrique; Système aide décision; Besoin hydrique; Restriction hydrique; Espagne; Etude sur modèle; Etude régionale FG : Europe; Europe Sud ED : Irrigation; Water resource management; Economic aspect; Environmental protection; Econometric model; Decision support system; Water requirement; Water restriction; Spain; Model study; Regional study EG : Europe; Southern Europe SD : Irrigación; Gestión recurso agua; Aspecto económico; Protección medio ambiente; Modelo econométrico; Sistema ayuda decisíon; Necesidad hidráulica; Restricción hídrica; España; Estudio sobre modelo; Estudio regional LO : INIST-15970.354000087812300030 654/793 NO : PASCAL 00-0276464 INIST ET : GIS and microsimulation for local labour market analysis AU : BALLAS (D.); CLARKE (G.) AF : School of Geography, University of Leeds/Leeds LS2 9JT/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Computers, environment and urban systems; ISSN 0198-9715; Coden CEUSD5; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2000; Vol. 24; No. 4; Pp. 305-330; Bibl. 2 p.3/4 LA : Anglais EA : This paper outlines the findings of ongoing research on ways of employing and combining geographical information systems (GIS) and microsimulation methodologies for the evaluation and analysis of local labour market problems and policies. First, it is shown how data sets from different sources are integrated to create an urban labour market GIS. In the context of this information system, ways of mapping thematically the local labour market demand and supply are presented. In addition, travel-to-work flows are mapped and it is demonstrated how this data can be used to build local labour market Spatial Interaction Models. Further, it is shown how GIS can be combined with microsimulation techniques to highlight urban problems and enhance the analysis and evaluation of potential social and employment policies. In particular, it is shown how GIS and microsimulation can be used as tools in order to analyse a region's economy and labour market and to estimate the degree of labour market segmentation and socio-economic dualism within an urban system. Also, it is outlined how what-if spatial policy analysis of local labour markets can be performed (i.e. simulating new policy initiatives, firm closures, changes in benefit policies and performing regional multiplier analysis). Finally, the paper presents outputs from SimLeeds, which is a spatial microsimulation model for the Leeds labour market, and explores the potential of GIS combined with microsimulation modelling to create a new framework for the formulation, analysis and evaluation of socio-economic policies at the individual or household level. CC : 001D14A11; 295 FD : Marché travail; Etude marché; Système information géographique; Simulation numérique; Modèle microscopique; Méthode étude; Trajet domicile travail; Politique; Situation emploi; Etude socioéconomique; Géographie; Base donnée; Ecoulement trafic; Répartition spatiale; Etude cas; Angleterre FG : Grande Bretagne; Royaume Uni; Europe ED : Labour market; Market survey; Geographic information system; Numerical simulation; Microscopic model; Investigation method; Travel to work; Policy; Employment situation; Socioeconomic study; Geography; Database; Traffic flow; Spatial distribution; Case study; England EG : Great Britain; United Kingdom; Europe SD : Mercado trabajo; Estudio mercado; Sistema información geográfica; Simulación numérica; Modelo microscópico; Método estudio; Trayecto domicilio trabajo; Política; Situación empleo; Estudio socioeconómico; Geografía; Base dato; Flujo tráfico; Distribución espacial; Estudio caso; Inglaterra LO : INIST-20192.354000087244040020 655/793 NO : PASCAL 00-0241127 INIST ET : Transferring insights into commuter behavior dynamics from laboratory experiments to field surveys AU : MAHMASSANI (H. S.); JOU (R.-C.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering and Department of Management Science and Information Systems, The University of Texas at Austin/Austin, TX 78712/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Traffic and Transportation Engineering and Management, Feng Chia University/Taichung/Taïwan (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice; ISSN 0965-8564; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2000; Vol. 34; No. 4; Pp. 243-260; Bibl. 11 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The principal objective of this paper is to perform a comparative analysis and interpretation of commuter behavior revealed in field surveys and laboratory experiments. The experimental studies have provided valuable insights into complex human decision behavior, but they were primarily intended to develop the underlying theoretical constructs, and were based primarily on simulated traffic situations. The transferability of these insights to commuter behavior in real traffic systems has not been sufficiently established, and remains to be accomplished as the next logical step towards the operational use of such models of commuter behavior. Thus, in this paper, comparisons between the field survey results and the experiments involving real commuters in a simulated traffic system are performed to confirm and better interpret the models and the conclusions resulting from such experiments. Such informal tests of external validity are very important from a methodological standpoint as laboratory and stated preference experiments continue to play an increasingly important role in travel behavior research, especially in connection with the introduction of new technologies. CC : 001D15A FD : Trafic voyageur; Analyse comportementale; Itinéraire; Choix modal; Durée trajet; Etude sur terrain; Etude en laboratoire; Insight; Timing; Simulation numérique; Modèle économétrique; Loi multinomiale; Modèle dynamique; Ordonnancement; Trajet domicile travail; Modèle probit ED : Passenger traffic; Behavioral analysis; Route; Modal choice; Travel time; Field study; Laboratory study; Insight; Timing; Numerical simulation; Econometric model; Multinomial distribution; Dynamic model; Scheduling; Travel to work SD : Tráfico viajero; Análisis conductual; Itinerario; Elección modal; Duración trayecto; Estudio en campo; Estudio en laboratorio; Insight; Timing; Simulación numérica; Modelo econométrico; Ley multinomial; Modelo dinámico; Ordonamiento; Trayecto domicilio trabajo LO : INIST-12377A.354000087555150020 656/793 NO : PASCAL 00-0240022 INIST ET : The effect of education programs on paratransit demand of people with disabilities AU : FITZGERALD (J.); SHAUNESEY (D.); STERN (S.) AF : JAUNT, 104 Keystone Place/Charlottesville, VA 22903/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); Department of Economics, University of Virginia/Charlottesville, VA 22903-3288/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice; ISSN 0965-8564; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2000; Vol. 34; No. 4; Pp. 261-285; Bibl. 6 ref. LA : Anglais EA : We describe a passenger education program to encourage responsible use of paratransit by people with disabilities. We use state-of-the-art econometric techniques to evaluate its success. We find that it has moderate effects on demand for transportation but large effects on how passengers use the transportation. In particular, passengers are more responsible about meeting the transportation at the curb rather than waiting for help inside their home. Cost-benefit analysis of the program suggests that it is a long-term worthwhile activity. CC : 001D15A; 001D15B FD : Trafic voyageur; Handicap; Education; Transport en commun non public; Demande transport; Simulation numérique; Modèle économétrique; Analyse avantage coût; Analyse tendance; Aspect économique; Financement; Analyse multivariable; Effet aléatoire; Accident circulation; Modèle probit ED : Passenger traffic; Handicap; Education; Paratransit; Transport demand; Numerical simulation; Econometric model; Cost benefit analysis; Trend analysis; Economic aspect; Financing; Multivariate analysis; Random effect; Traffic accident SD : Tráfico viajero; Desventaja; Educación; Transporte colectivo no público; Demanda transporte; Simulación numérica; Modelo econométrico; Análisis costo beneficio; Análisis tendencia; Aspecto económico; Financiación; Análisis multivariable; Efecto aleatorio; Accidente tráfico LO : INIST-12377A.354000087555150030 657/793 NO : PASCAL 00-0184808 INIST ET : Cellular automata microsimulation of bidirectional pedestrian flows AU : BLUE (V. J.); ADLER (J. L.) AF : Planning and Program Management Group, New York State Department of Transportation, 4 Burnett Boulevard/Poughkeepsie, NY 12603/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, Center for Infrastructure and Transportation Studies, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute/Troy, NY 12180-3590/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 1999; No. 1678; Pp. 135-141; Bibl. 14 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The cellular automata (CA) microsimulation of pedestrians is a particle-hopping model in which a set of local rules prescribe the behavior of entities within local neighborhoods of cells. CA microsimulation has emerged as a tool for simulating traffic flow and modeling transportation networks. Pedestrian flow is inherently more complex than vehicular flow, and simulation models that are used for emulating vehicular traffic are not directly applicable to modeling pedestrian movements. In previous work the authors demonstrated that unidirectional pedestrian flow patterns consistent with well-established fundamental properties could be generated with CA microsimulation. This paper expands upon the previous effort and presents a CA microsimulation model and emergent fundamental flows for a bidirectional pedestrian walkway. Simulation experiments indicate that the basic model is applicable to walkways of various lengths and widths and across different directional shares of pedestrian movements. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Trafic piéton; Simulation numérique; Modèle microscopique; Automate cellulaire; Ecoulement trafic; Modèle dynamique; Voie piétonne; Trottoir; Expérimentation; Direction; Temps calcul; Congrès international ED : Road traffic; Pedestrian traffic; Numerical simulation; Microscopic model; Cellular automaton; Traffic flow; Dynamic model; Pedestrian walkway; Footway; Experimentation; Direction; Computation time; International conference SD : Tráfico carretera; Tráfico peatones; Simulación numérica; Modelo microscópico; Autómata celular; Flujo tráfico; Modelo dinámico; Vía peatonal; Acera; Experimentación; Dirección; Tiempo computación; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-10459B.354000081708890170 658/793 NO : PASCAL 00-0177444 INIST ET : An economic analysis of automatic milking using a simulation model AU : COOPER (K.); PARSONS (D. J.) AF : Silsoe Research Institute, Wrest Park, Silsoe/Bedford MK45 4HS/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of agricultural engineering research; ISSN 0021-8634; Coden JAERA2; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1999; Vol. 73; No. 3; Pp. 311-321; Bibl. 25 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The economic and logistical consequences of using an automatic milking system (AMS) on a dairy farm in the UK in place of the conventional dairy parlour are examined. A three-phase discrete simulation model is combined with an economic analysis for a range of real farms, herd size of 85-95, and then one of these farms is selected and a sensitivity analysis is conducted. The model is able to simulate milking for cows housed all-year and those that are to be fetched from fields. The model simulates the cows' yield and movement throughout the year, according to their individual lactation curves. The costs and benefits of an AMS for all-year voluntary presentation, for all-year manually fetched (from fields and barn) and for a combination of voluntary presentation from barns in winter, and manually fetched from fields in summer are examined. An analysis of the efficiency of the robot, i.e. time for robot to attach teat cups, time for cow to walk through the system and the time that the robot is available to the cow, is conducted. The utility of the robot is shown to be as important as robot efficiency and the cows will need to be motivated to use the robot for up to 22 h/d. If dairy farmers are to switch from conventional milking to automatic milking, they will need to decide how to deal with the increase in milk yield, by buying more quota or reducing their herd size. The costs of these two strategies are shown. Using current prices and costs, a single-stall robot is compared to a multi-stall robot. The sensitivity of robot cost and lifetime is shown. If the price of quota is low, the robot is competitive for all-year voluntary presentation with the conventional milking parlour, assuming that the robot can be shown to have the same reliability. If automatic milking becomes more popular, the price of the system is likely to fall. Each reduction of £1000 in the cost of the one robot and two milking stalls increases the annual relative profit of a farm (used as a baseline cost) by £147. CC : 002A36C03 FD : Automatisation; Impact économique; Logistique; Rendement; Rentabilité; Traite mécanique; Robot; Système automatique; Simulation ordinateur; Modèle simulation; Modèle économétrique; Bovin laitier; Vache; Royaume Uni; Analyse économique; Analyse sensibilité; Etude sur modèle; Modèle TOCHSIM; INSTALLATION DE TRAITE; EXPLOITATION LAITIERE FG : Artiodactyla; Ungulata; Mammalia; Vertebrata; Boeuf; Europe; Econométrie; Economie agricole; Production laitière; Animal élevage; Animal ruminant ED : Automation; Economic impact; Logistics; Yield; Profitability; Mechanical milking; Robot; Automatic system; Computer simulation; Simulation model; Econometric model; Dairy cattle; Cow; United Kingdom; Economic analysis; Sensitivity analysis; Model study; MILKING FACILITIES; DAIRY FARMS EG : Artiodactyla; Ungulata; Mammalia; Vertebrata; Ox; Europe; Econometrics; Agricultural economics; Milk production; Farming animal; Ruminant animal SD : Automatización; Impacto económico; Logística; Rendimiento; Rentabilidad; Ordeño mecánico; Robot; Sistema automático; Simulación computadora; Modelo simulación; Modelo econométrico; Ganado de leche; Vaca; Reino Unido; Análisis económico; Análisis sensibilidad; Estudio sobre modelo; INSTALACION DE ORDENO; GRANJAS LECHERAS LO : INIST-4708.354000085720760100 659/793 NO : PASCAL 00-0174014 INIST ET : Drivers' learning and network behavior : Dynamic analysis of the driver-network system as a complex system AU : NAKAYAMA (S.); KITAMURA (R.); FUJII (S.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering Systems, Kyoto University/Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501/Japon (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 1999; No. 1676; Pp. 30-36; Bibl. 18 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A model system of drivers' cognition, learning, and route choice is formulated, taking into account the limitations in drivers' cognitive capabilities, and is applied to examine the dynamic nature of a driver-network system through microsimulation. Network equilibrium is not assumed a priori; rather, finding how an equilibrium is reached, or not reached, is the objective. Although equilibrium analysis, in general, focuses on unique and static equilibrium by treating drivers' behavior as simply as possible, drivers' behavior is treated more realistically to enhance understanding of the day-to-day dynamics of the driver-network system. Results of microsimulation analyses indicate that the network flow does not necessarily converge to user equilibrium; instead, it may reach &dquot;deluded equilibrium,&dquot; which is caused by drivers' false perceptions of travel times, and have &dquot;path dependence.&dquot; Results, especially the complex behavior such as path dependence shown in the simulation, indicate that the driver-network system is a complex system. CC : 001D15C FD : Transport routier; Analyse comportementale; Conducteur véhicule; Apprentissage; Réseau routier; Simulation numérique; Modèle dynamique; Itinéraire; Critère décision; Modèle microscopique; Durée trajet; Ecoulement trafic; Volume trafic; Etude expérimentale; Congrès international ED : Road transportation; Behavioral analysis; Vehicle driver; Learning; Road network; Numerical simulation; Dynamic model; Route; Decision criterion; Microscopic model; Travel time; Traffic flow; Capacity of traffic; Experimental study; International conference SD : Transporte por carretera; Análisis conductual; Conductor vehículo; Aprendizaje; Red carretera; Simulación numérica; Modelo dinámico; Itinerario; Criterio decisión; Modelo microscópico; Duración trayecto; Flujo tráfico; Volumen tráfico; Estudio experimental; Congreso internacional LO : INIST-10459B.354000081672810040 660/793 NO : PASCAL 00-0166227 INIST ET : Development of hierarchical methodology for benefit evaluation of vehicle-highway automation : Case study of the Houston Katy Freeway AU : MILLER (M. A.); MISENER (J. A.); GODBOLE (D. N.); DESHPANDE (A. R.) AF : California Partners for Advanced Transit and Highways, Institute of Transportation Studies. University of California at Berkeley. Richmond Field Station, 1357 South 46th Street, Building 452/Richmond CA 94804-4698/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Etude de cas, cas et faits cliniques; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 1999; No. 1679; Pp. 139-147; Bibl. 12 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A hierarchical methodology used to design and benefit the evaluation of vehicle-highway automation systems at various levels of granularity is described. In this hierarchy, detailed microsimulation and experimental data and performance measures feed into consecutively higher, system-level analyses. Ultimately, top-level estimates of system benefits are provided to transportation decision makers. The method is designed to accommodate studies of autonomous vehicle control concepts such as the safety services under consideration as advanced vehicle control and safety system (AVCSS) intelligent transportation system services, some of which have been discussed as U.S. Department of Transportation Intelligent Vehicle Initiative services, it will also accommodate studies of the fully automated highway systems. The method is illustrated with a multifaceted set of studies of the relationship between the degree of automated vehicle-highway cooperation and system performance improvement on the Houston. Texas. Metropolitan Transit Authority High-Occupancy Vehicle facility on Interstate 10, also known as the Katy Freeway. The primary objective is to predict performance impacts for alternative concepts, which will undergo a major investment study. in a real-world setting. The study initially focused on automated highway systems, but the methodology has since been applied to the adaptive cruise control AVCSS service. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Gestion trafic; Véhicule routier; Route; Automatisation; Méthodologie; Evaluation performance; Simulation numérique; Modèle microscopique; Etude expérimentale; Sécurité trafic; Système contrôle commande; Système intelligent; Méthode analyse; Analyse multiélément; Congrès ED : Road traffic; Traffic management; Road vehicle; Highway; Automation; Methodology; Performance evaluation; Numerical simulation; Microscopic model; Experimental study; Traffic safety; Monitoring control system; Intelligent system; Analysis method; Multicomponent analysis; Congress SD : Tráfico carretera; Gestión tráfico; Vehículo caminero; Carretera; Automatización; Metodología; Evaluación prestación; Simulación numérica; Modelo microscópico; Estudio experimental; Seguridad tráfico; Sistema control mando; Sistema inteligente; Método análisis; Análisis multielemento; Congreso LO : INIST-10459B.354000081449750190 661/793 NO : PASCAL 00-0114291 BDSP FT : Applications des méthodes de microsimulation dans les domaines de la santé et de la dépendance AU : BLANCHET (D.); BREUIL-GENIER (P.); CHANUT (J.M.); FLIPO (A.); MAHIEU (R.); LIEVRE (A.) AF : Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques. (I.N.S.E.E.). Paris./France; Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques. (I.N.E.D.). Paris./France; Commissariat Général au Plan. Paris./France (patr.) DT : Livre; Niveau monographique SO : Applications des méthodes de microsimulation dans les domaines de la santé et de la dépendance; France; Paris: CGP; Da. 1996; Pp. 132 p. LA : Français FA : La recherche présentée dans ce rapport répond à deux objectifs : - proposer un état des lieux de l'utilisation des modèles de microsimulation dans le domaine de la santé et dans le domaine connexe de la dépendance, qui a donné lieu, à l'étranger, à de nombreux travaux ; - explorer les possibilités de reproduire, pour le cas français, quelques uns de ces exercices réalisés à l'étranger. En France, la seule application d'ampleur des modèles de microsimulation au domaine de la santé est réalisée par C. Leteno-Largeron, C. Lachaud-Fiume et L. Rochaix (1995), portant sur les effets redistributifs et incitatifs de différentes formules de co-paiement de la part des assurés. Le choix s'est donc porté sur deux autres champs : la prise en charge de la dépendance - la microsimulation dynamique étant un outil bien adapté pour la comparaison de scénarios de prise en charge de cette dépendance - et l'analyse des filières de soins CC : 002B30A11 FD : Assurance; Secteur privé; Coût social; Modèle; Demande; Autonomie; Dépendance; Financement; Démographie; Incapacité; Milieu familial; Relation familiale; Prescription; Médicament; Consommation; Soin; Projection perspective; Prospective; Evaluation; Bibliographie; Comportement; Santé; Dépense; Consommateur; Enquête; France; Etats Unis FG : Europe; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Insurance; Private sector; Social cost; Models; Demand; Autonomy; Dependence; Financing; Demography; Disability; Family environment; Familial relation; Prescription; Drug; Consumption; Care; Perspective projection; Prospective; Evaluation; Bibliography; Behavior; Health; Expenditure; Consumer; Survey; France; United States EG : Europe; North America; America SD : Seguro; Sector privado; Modelo; Petición; Autonomía; Dependencia; Financiación; Demografía; Incapacidad; Medio familiar; Relación familiar; Prescripción; Medicamento; Consumo; Cuidado; Proyección perspectiva; Prospectiva; Evaluación; Bibliografía; Conducta; Salud; Gasto; Consumidor; Encuesta; Francia; Estados Unidos LO : BDSP/CREDES-19223, B2963 662/793 NO : PASCAL 00-0094964 INIST ET : Type of partnership and heterosexual spread of HIV infection in rural Uganda : results from simulation modelling AU : ROBINSON (N. J.); MULDER (D.); AUVERT (B.); WHITWORTH (J.); HAYES (R.) AF : INSERM Unit 88/94415 Saint-Maurice/France (1 aut., 3 aut.); London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine/London WC1E 7HT/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut.); Medical Research Council Programme on AIDS, PO Box 49/Entebbe/Ouganda (2 aut., 4 aut.); University of Amsterdam/1105 AZ Amsterdam/Pays-Bas (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : International journal of STD & AIDS; ISSN 0956-4624; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1999; Vol. 10; No. 11; Pp. 718-725; Bibl. 50 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The objective was to estimate the likely percentage of HIV infections that may be attributable to one-off partnerships (such as those between female sex workers and their clients) and longer-term partnerships in rural Uganda. This was addressed by the application of a microsimulation model (SimulAIDS) of the transmission dynamics of HIV infection, drawing on data from a population cohort of 10,000 in rural Uganda. For a scenario reproducing documented characteristics of the study population in 1990, when adult HIV prevalence was 9%, and during subsequent follow up (1990-1994), when adult HIV incidence was 8 per 1000 person-years, the percentage of HIV infections in men (women) attributed to one-off partnerships decreased from 96% (26%) during 1980 to 67% (8%) in 1989 and 22% (5%) in 1994. Reducing HIV transmission between one-off partners early in an HIV epidemic may substantially limit the potential for the spread of HIV infection. At a later phase, prevention must also focus on control of transmission between longer-term HIV-discordant partners. CC : 002B05C02D; 235 FD : SIDA; Partenaire sexuel; Transmission; Hétérosexualité; Modèle simulation; Modélisation; Zone rurale; Ouganda; Homme; Comportement sexuel; Facteur risque; Maladie sexuellement transmissible; Incidence; Epidémiologie; Prévalence FG : Virose; Infection; Afrique; Immunopathologie; Immunodéficit ED : AIDS; Sex partner; Transmission; Heterosexuality; Simulation model; Modeling; Rural area; Uganda; Human; Sexual behavior; Risk factor; Sexually transmitted disease; Incidence; Epidemiology; Prevalence EG : Viral disease; Infection; Africa; Immunopathology; Immune deficiency SD : SIDA; Compañero sexual; Transmisión; Heterosexualidad; Modelo simulación; Modelización; Zona rural; Uganda; Hombre; Conducta sexual; Factor riesgo; Enfermedad de transmisión sexual; Incidencia; Epidemiología; Prevalencia LO : INIST-22891.354000080487880050 663/793 NO : FRANCIS 531-00-13687 PRODIG-INTERGEO FT : Modelling within a thermodynamic framework : a footnote to Sanders (1999) AU : WINDER (N.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Cybergeo; ISSN 1278-3366; France; Da. 2000; No. 138; 11 p.; Abs. anglais/français/suédois; Bibl. 3 ref. LA : Anglais FA : De nombreuses modélisations utilisent des dynamiques de niveau micro pour étudier des comportements agrégés. Cette approche ayant ses sources dans la physique, on peut la qualifier de &dquot;modélisation thermodynamique&dquot;. L'A. reprend la comparaison effectuée par L. Sanders entre les modèles développés dans le cadre de la synergétique et la microsimulation. Il propose une nouvelle typologie des modélisations. Dans le cas où la modélisation par microsimulation est définie comme une &dquot;modélisation thermodynamique avec facteurs de compensation&dquot;, les paradigmes de la synergétique et de la microsimulation sont irréconciliables CC : 5317; 531 FD : Microsimulation; Synergétique; Auto-organisation; Système; Modèle; Dynamique de système; Modélisation ED : Microsimulation; Synergetics; Self-organizing behaviour; System; Model; System dynamics; Modelling LO : RESBGI 664/793 NO : FRANCIS 531-00-13684 PRODIG-INTERGEO ET : Interrelationship between household and housing market : a microsimulation model of household formation among the young AU : FRANSSON (U.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Cybergeo; ISSN 1278-3366; France; Da. 2000; No. 135; 23 p.; Abs. anglais/français; Bibl. 20 ref.; 6 fig., 1 tabl. LA : Anglais FA : L'accent est mis sur les possibilités offertes aux jeunes gens de quitter le foyer parental. L'A. considère que leur situation fait partie d'un système d'interactions plus large et complexe au sein du marché immobilier. Importance cruciale de l'interaction entre individus et structure. Présentation d'une méthode servant à décrire les interactions complexes. Conception d'un modèle de micro-simulation dans l'espace et dans le temps, afin de rendre compte de nombreux processus simultanés au niveau induviduel. Le modèle permet une bonne représentation des déplacements des jeunes gens, et montre combien leurs possibilités se trouvent restreintes par leur propre situation et par les conditions structurelles. Exemple de la Suède CC : 531122A; 531 FD : Marché du logement; Ménage; Jeunes; Mobilité résidentielle; Analyse systémique; Méthodologie; Décohabitation; Espace-temps; Simulation; Décision; Comportement; Logement; Suède ED : Housing market; Household; Young people; Residential mobility; System analysis; Methodology; Space time; Simulation; Decision; Behaviour; Housing; Sweden LO : RESBGI 665/793 NO : FRANCIS 531-00-12086 PRODIG-INTERGEO ET : RAMBLAS : a regional planning model based on the microsimulation of daily activity travel patterns AU : VELDHUISEN (J.); TIMMERMANS (H.); KAPOEN (L.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Environment and planning. A; ISSN 0308-518X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 2000; Vol. 32; No. 3; Pp. 427-443; Abs. anglais; Bibl. 3 p.; 2 fig., 7 tabl. LA : Anglais FA : L'un des buts de ce modèle de simulation est de prévoir les flux de circulation dans un réseau de transports à différentes heures de la journée. Principaux concepts utilisés. Discussion sur les modèles de demande de transport centrés sur l'activité économique. Principales différences entre ces modèles et le modèle de simulation. Examen de la structure du modèle, et application à la région d'Eindhoven CC : 531123; 531 FD : Planification urbaine; Transport urbain; Flux; Modèle; Système de transports; Demande; Espace-temps; Trafic urbain; Lieu de travail; Vie quotidienne; Simulation; Pays-Bas; Eindhoven ED : Urban planning; Urban transport; Flow; Model; Transport system; Demand; Space time; Urban traffic; Workplace; Daily life; Simulation; Netherlands (The) LO : INIST-15583 A 666/793 NO : FRANCIS 531-00-10108 PRODIG-INTERGEO ET : Labor-productivity changes in regional econometric + input - output models AU : REY (S.J.); JACKSON (R.W.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Environment and planning. A; ISSN 0308-518X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1999; Vol. 31; No. 9; Pp. 1583-1599; Abs. anglais; Bibl. 16 ref.; 2 fig., 8 tabl. LA : Anglais FA : Après l'introduction de la variable de demande inter-industrielle en 1988, les AA. présentent la variable de demande d'emploi inter-industrielle. Elle a une forme statique et dynamique comme le montre son application au marché du travail de San Diego. Les AA. évaluent sa fiabilité pour des prévisions. Des ajustements à la productivité changeante du travail conduisent à limiter les erreurs dans la simulation. Données chiffrées entre 1970 et 1994. CC : 531133; 531 FD : Modèle; Modèle économétrique; Productivité du travail; Modèle d'entrée-sortie; Emploi; Demande; Emploi industriel; Méthode de Monte Carlo; Simulation; Impact économique; Modèle régional; Etats-Unis; California; San Diego ED : Model; Econometric model; Labour productivity; Input-output model; Employment; Demand; Industrial employment; Monte Carlo analysis; Simulation; Economic impact; Regional model; United States of America; California; San Diego LO : INIST-15583 A 667/793 NO : PASCAL 99-0543224 INIST ET : Five years of the instrumented vehicle: What have we learned AU : BRACKSTONE (M.); MCDONALD (M.); SULTAN (B.); MOULD (B.) AF : University of Southampton/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Traffic engineering & control; ISSN 0041-0683; Coden TENCA4; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1999; Vol. 40; No. 11; Pp. 537-540; Bibl. 12 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Over the last decade it has become clear that the ability to design and prototype complex ITS (Intelligent Transport Systems) tools has outstripped the understanding of the public's behavioural response. With ITS now regarded as pivotal to solving transport problems, this understanding has never been more important. In 1993, the University of Southampton's Transportation Research Group started developing an instrumented vehicle to assess driver behaviour and response to ITS. The vehicle is driven in traffic as weil as on a test platform, either monitoring adjacent vehicles, or testing driver responses in traffic. It complements virtual reality simulators observing behaviour in hazardous' conditions, as well as technologies too expensive to prototype. It allows data collection for direct understanding, as well as for calibrating and validating models. Instrumented vehicles are not new, and many types have been developed since the late 1950s. However modem sensov and computer technology made it important to re-visit the concept. Despite rapid technological progress, initial scoping studies revealed that, although enhanced sensors existed, they were too expensive, Manufacturers had assembled many vehicles containing relevant sensors, but these were either unavailable to most researchers, or were locked into a particular vehicle actuator cortrol system, making them exceptionally difficult for general research. By the end of 1995 however, with the aid of grants and reducing component costs, the construction and initial test programme for such a vehicle became possible. Initially the vehicle would collect dynamic time series data on intervehicle disfances and relative speed for microsimulation modelling. Although the vehicle new addresses many other applications, this first requirement was the most demanding. The solution, to use an automotive radar rangefinder, made the vehicle unique amongst EU public bodies. The vehicle became fully operational in 1972, since then making valuable contributions to a wide range of fundamental and applied research as this report from Mark Brackstone et al. describes. CC : 001D15C FD : Transports; Système intelligent; Véhicule routier; Appareillage embarqué; Conception système; Prototype; Automobile; Description système; Evaluation système; Traitement donnée; Vitesse déplacement; Comportement; Prospective ED : Transportation; Intelligent system; Road vehicle; On board equipment; System design; Prototype; Motor car; System description; System evaluation; Data processing; Speed; Behavior; Prospective SD : Transportes; Sistema inteligente; Vehículo caminero; Equipo embarcado; Concepción sistema; Prototipo; Automóvil; Descripción sistema; Evaluación sistema; Tratamiento datos; Velocidad desplazamiento; Conducta; Prospectiva LO : INIST-13729.354000088338740040 668/793 NO : PASCAL 99-0467992 INIST FT : Séminaire de formation par la recherche : &dquot;les modèles multinomiaux Probit (MNP)&dquot; : semaine du 3 au 7 février 1997 ET : (Seminar of training to research : Probit multinomial models : February 1997) AU : CALZADA (Christian); JAYET (Hubert); BOLDUC (Denis) AF : Ministère de l'équipement, des transports et du logement. Service économique et statistique/Puteaux/France DT : Congrès; Niveau monographique SO : Les modèles multinomiaux Probit (MNP). Séminaire de formation par la recherche/1997-02-03/FRA; France; Da. 1997; Pp. 345 p. LA : Français FA : Ce séminaire avait plusieurs objectifs : - Premier séminaire de formation appliquée, interne au SES (Service economique et statistique) ; - Combler le retard théorique et pratique sur l'implémentation des modèles de choix modaux polytomiques en transports, tout particulièrement dans le cadre de deux exercices en cours : 1) élaboration d'un modèle de choix modal marchandises sur données RP/SP, 2) analyse du choix modal voyageurs sur données de rang (SP) ; - Développer une meilleure réflexion théorique et pratique sur le choix modal en transports avec les meilleurs spécialistes du domaine. CC : 430A05V; 001D15A; 001D15B FD : Transports; Transport voyageur; Transport marchandise; Formation professionnelle; Modèle probabiliste; Loi multinomiale; Choix modal; Programme enseignement; Analyse qualitative; Modèle logit; Autocorrélation; Modèle simulation; Modèle hybride; Logistique; Modèle économétrique ED : Transportation; Passenger transportation; Freight transportation; Occupational training; Probabilistic model; Multinomial distribution; Modal choice; Educational program; Qualitative analysis; Logit model; Autocorrelation; Simulation model; Hybrid model; Logistics; Econometric model SD : Transportes; Transporte pasajero; Transporte mercadería; Formación profesional; Modelo probabilista; Ley multinomial; Elección modal; Programa enseñanza; Análisis cualitativo; Modelo logit; Autocorrelación; Modelo simulación; Modelo híbrido; Logística; Modelo econométrico LO : INIST-RL 170.354000084954760000 669/793 NO : PASCAL 99-0404346 INIST ET : The simulation of variable traffic signal control in the Bangkok network AU : PAKSARSAWAN (S.); MAY (A. D.); MONTGOMERY (F. O.) AF : JMP Consultants Ltd./Leeds/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.); Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds/Leeds, LS2 9JT/Royaume-Uni (2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation planning and technology; ISSN 0308-1060; Coden TPLTAK; Pays-Bas; Da. 1999; Vol. 22; No. 4; Pp. 287-308; Bibl. 14 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Due to the rapidly rising car ownership in Bangkok, the capital of Thailand, traffic congestion is increasing rapidly. TRAF-NETSIM was selected for the detailed analysis of Bangkok conditions. However, most traffic signals in Bangkok are controlled by on-site traffic police operating the controllers in manual mode. Hence the cycle time, length of stages and the sequence of stages are dependent on the minute by minute decisions of the traffic police. One of the constraints of TRAF-NETSIM (and most other microsimulation models) is that the cycle time can have only one value for the whole network, and the sequence of stages must be in the same order throughout the simulation period. Therefore, the varying cycle times operated by the police had to be represented as a common value, and the sequence of stages had to be fixed. It was then necessary for simulation purposes to adjust the green times to maintain the observed capacities. The principles in Webster and Cobbe (Traffic signals, Technical Paper No. 56, Road Research Laboratory, H.M.S.O., London, England, 1966) were applied to achieve this. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Trafic routier urbain; Modèle simulation; Contrôle; Feu signalisation; Thaïlande; Régulation trafic; Description système; Croisement routier; Ecoulement trafic; Congestion trafic; Etude comparative; Equation; Jonction FG : Asie ED : Urban road traffic; Simulation model; Check; Traffic lights; Thailand; Traffic control; System description; Cross roads; Traffic flow; Traffic congestion; Comparative study; Equation; Junction EG : Asia SD : Tráfico vial urbano; Modelo simulación; Control; Semáforo; Tailandia; Regulación tráfico; Descripción sistema; Intersección carretera; Flujo tráfico; Congestión tráfico; Estudio comparativo; Ecuación; Reunión LO : INIST-15632.354000085902500040 670/793 NO : PASCAL 99-0255110 INIST FT : Les valeurs du temps des automobilistes à Marseille en 1995 ET : (The distribution of car drivers' values-of-time in Marseilles (1995)) AU : LEURENT (F.) AF : INRETS-DEST, 2, avenue du Général Malleret-joinville/94114 Arcueil/France (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Recherche transports sécurité; ISSN 0761-8980; Coden RTSEEK; France; Da. 1998; No. 60; Pp. 19-38; Abs. anglais; Bibl. 22 ref. LA : Français FA : Des enquêtes menées à Marseille en 1995 permettent d'étudier la concurrence entre des itinéraires routiers urbains à péage et des itinéraires gratuits. Nous formulons un modèle économétrique pour expliquer le choix binaire péage ou non en fonction du gain de temps moyen. Le modèle différencie les valeurs du temps (arbitrages entre prix et temps de parcours) dans la population, et il incorpore un aléa résiduel pour tenir compte forfaitairement des causes non explicitées. L'estimation du modèle par la méthode du maximum de vraisemblance montre tout d'abord que la dispersion des valeurs du temps est réelle, avec un rapport entre moyenne et médiane de 1,28 ; elle montre également que, pour un gain de temps donné, la variabilité des choix tient pour deux tiers à la variabilité des valeurs du temps, pour un tiers aux causes résiduelles. Une hypothèse supplémentaire permet d'estimer la valeur du temps moyenne à 70 F/h pour une voiture en déplacement urbain dans Marseille en 1995. L'article expose d'abord le modèle économique du comportement, puis analyse les observations disponibles et estime la distribution des valeurs du temps. Enfin nous indiquons les possibilités de transposition à d'autres problèmes de déplacement. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Trafic routier urbain; Bouches du Rhône; Itinéraire; Temps; Route à péage; Simulation numérique; Modèle origine destination; Modèle économique; Choix; Durée trajet; Déplacement; Tunnel routier; Enquête; Estimation paramètre; Fonction vraisemblance; Modèle économétrique FG : Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur; France; Europe ED : Urban road traffic; Bouches du Rhône; Route; Time; Toll road; Numerical simulation; Origin destination model; Economic model; Choice; Travel time; Displacement; Road tunnel; Survey; Parameter estimation; Likelihood function; Econometric model EG : Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur; France; Europe SD : Tráfico vial urbano; Bouches du Rhône; Itinerario; Tiempo; Carretera peaje; Simulación numérica; Modelo origen destinación; Modelo económico; Elección; Duración trayecto; Desplazamiento; Túnel carretera; Encuesta; Estimación parámetro; Función verosimilitud; Modelo econométrico LO : INIST-16868.354000083738220020 671/793 NO : PASCAL 99-0254180 INIST ET : Edinburgh city centre : A microsimulationcase-study AU : LAIRD (J.); DRUITT (S.); FRASER (B. D.) AF : SIAS Limited/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut.); The City of Edinburgh Council/Royaume-Uni (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Traffic engineering & control; ISSN 0041-0683; Coden TENCA4; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1999; Vol. 40; No. 2; Pp. 72-76; Bibl. 4 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Thi article is the third in a series on microsimulation, and follows 'An introduction to microsimulation' and 'Some real applications of microsimulation' published in &dquot;Traffic engineering & control&dquot; in late 1998. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier urbain; Royaume Uni; Etude cas; Simulation numérique; Modélisation; Stratégie; Réseau routier; Affectation trafic; Etalonnage; Validation; Modèle; Etude comparative; Application; Gestion trafic FG : Europe ED : Urban road traffic; United Kingdom; Case study; Numerical simulation; Modeling; Strategy; Road network; Traffic assignment; Calibration; Validation; Models; Comparative study; Application; Traffic management EG : Europe SD : Tráfico vial urbano; Reino Unido; Estudio caso; Simulación numérica; Modelización; Estrategia; Red carretera; Afectación tráfico; Contraste; Validación; Modelo; Estudio comparativo; Aplicación; Gestión tráfico LO : INIST-13729.354000074497300030 672/793 NO : PASCAL 99-0180038 INIST ET : Some real applications of microsimulation AU : DRUITT (S.) AF : SIAS Limited/Inconnu (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Traffic engineering & control; ISSN 0041-0683; Coden TENCA4; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1998; Vol. 39; No. 11; Pp. 600-607; Bibl. 1 ref. LA : Anglais EA : In the September 1998 issue of Traffic Engineering + Control, the article 'An Introduction to Microsimulation' suggested that the technique offers a unified approach to the analysis of traffic flow because it directly models its components instead of their mathematical proxy'. Microsimulation* does not need explicitly to model vehicle platoons, shock waves, queueing behaviour at specific junction types, the local and strategic effects of bus priority schemes, or indeed the whole range of effects which result from traffic management measures at detailed, local, corridor or wide-area levels. These phenomena occur because they are a natural consequence of the modelling process. Microsimulation is synonymous with microsimplification, and schematically represents the individual vehicle driver in the individual vehicle reacting to other individuals and the immediate external constraints on freedom of movement. This simple definition of what actually constitutes road traffic is consistent with the view from behind the driver's wheel. The real components which contribute to traffic movement, such as kerb lines, traffic signals, bus lanes and 'no entry' signs, are either not moving, and therefore easy to represent in modelling terms, or, in the case of drivers, so heavily constrained that their movement can be readily described and tracked. Beyond the gruelling conditions of the supermarket car-park, the Toyota four-wheel drive Shopping Trolley has little opportunity to behave much differently from the clapped-out Mini, and so road traffic distills to little more than drivers' aggression and awareness, which depend as much on what was eaten for breakfast as on the vehicle driven. A randomised variation on normal driving behaviour and vehicle kinematics has proved sufficient to enable a wide range of commissions undertaken by SIAS using its 'Paramics' microscopic traffic simulation software to be validated in circumstances where other contemporary systems might struggle. In its early use, Paramics was generally deployed where an alternative purpose-built tool broke down while operating outside its validated locus. It quickly became apparent that microsimulation offered a more convincing representation of road traffic across the board, and the technique is now in general use on commissions for central and local government and the private sector. This article includes examples of microsimulation projects ranging from individual junctions to wide-area problems of rural and urban congestion, covering both common and unusual situations. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Modèle simulation; Ecoulement trafic; Evaluation projet; Exemple; Royaume Uni; Zone urbaine; Zone rurale; Congestion trafic; Croisement routier; Signalisation routière; Réseau routier FG : Europe ED : Road traffic; Simulation model; Traffic flow; Project evaluation; Example; United Kingdom; Urban area; Rural area; Traffic congestion; Cross roads; Road signalling; Road network EG : Europe SD : Tráfico carretera; Modelo simulación; Flujo tráfico; Evaluación proyecto; Ejemplo; Reino Unido; Zona urbana; Zona rural; Congestión tráfico; Intersección carretera; Señalización tráfico; Red carretera LO : INIST-13729.354000072988060020 673/793 NO : PASCAL 99-0170525 INIST ET : Emergent fundamental pedestrian flows from cellular automata microsimulation AU : BLUE (V. J.); ADLER (J. L.) AF : New York State Department of Transportation/Poughkeepsie, NY 12603/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute/Troy, NY 12180-3590/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 1998; No. 1644; Pp. 29-36; Bibl. 15 ref. LA : Anglais EA : In recent years cellular automata (CA) have been successfully applied to modeling traffic flow. Use of a CA for modeling pedestrian flows is examined here. A particle hopping model for a single-directional pedestrian flow over a multilane walkway is presented. This model offers the advantage of effectively capturing the behaviors of pedestrians at the micro-level while attaining realistic macro-level activity. The emergent group behavior is an outgrowth of the interaction of the rule set in simulation. The results indicate that a heuristically derived minimal rule set produces flow patterns that closely resemble the accepted fundamental diagrams. Important parameters for determining the shape of the fundamental diagrams are examined. Key rules used in a vehicular traffic CA are tested for their applicability to the pedestrian CA model. CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Trafic piéton; Simulation numérique; Ecoulement trafic; Automate cellulaire; Méthode particule; Analyse comportementale; Véhicule routier; Formulation; Expérimentation; Marche à pied; Espacement; Distribution vitesse; Densité population ED : Road traffic; Pedestrian traffic; Numerical simulation; Traffic flow; Cellular automaton; Particle method; Behavioral analysis; Road vehicle; Formulation; Experimentation; Walking; Spacing; Velocity distribution; Population density SD : Tráfico carretera; Tráfico peatones; Simulación numérica; Flujo tráfico; Autómata celular; Método partícula; Análisis conductual; Vehículo caminero; Formulación; Experimentación; Caminata; Espaciamiento; Distribución velocidad; Densidad población LO : INIST-10459B.354000074265220040 674/793 NO : PASCAL 99-0170388 INIST ET : Construction and calibration of a large-scale microsimulation model of the Salt Lake Area AU : RAKHA (H.); VAN AERDE (M.); BLOOMBERG (L.); HUANG (X.) AF : Center for Transportation Research, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1700 Kraft Drive, Suite 2000 (0536)/Blacksburg, VA 24061/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); TransCore, 2000 Powell Street, Suite 1090/Emeryville, CA 94608/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); Utah Department of Transportation, 4510 South 2700 West/Salt Lake City, UT 84114/Etats-Unis (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 1998; No. 1644; Pp. 93-102; Bibl. 7 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The objective of this paper is threefold. First, the feasibility of modeling a large-scale network at a microscopic level of detail is presented. Second, the unique data collection challenges that are involved in constructing and calibrating a large-scale network microscopically are described. Third, the unique opportunities and applications from the use of a microscopic as opposed to a macroscopic simulation tool are described. The possibility and feasibility of modeling a large-scale network using a microscopic simulation model is demonstrated. The requirements of a validated microscopic model for large-scale modeling are: (a) the model must be capable of modeling origin-destination demand tables, (b) the model must be capable of modeling dynamic traffic routing, and (c) the model must be capable of modeling the dynamic interaction of freeway/arterial facilities. The data collection and coding exercise for microscopic models is more intensive than for macroscopic models. The calibration exercise for a microscopic model to a large-scale network, although feasible, is by no means an easy task and does require expert assistance. The Salt Lake metropolitan region study has demonstrated that the data collection, coding, and calibration exercise is approximately a 4-person-year exercise. Model execution times during peak periods are still quite high (from 2 to 17 times the simulation time depending on the number of vehicles) for the PC platform (Pentium 200 with 64 megabytes of random-access memory). Consequently, tools that can extract portions of the large-scale network can allow the modeler to conduct various types of sensitivity analyses within a more realistic time frame. CC : 001D15B FD : Trafic routier; Simulation numérique; Ecoulement trafic; Modèle origine destination; Acheminement; Collecte donnée; Codage; Modèle microscopique; Développement logiciel; Utah; Volume trafic; Configuration ordinateur; Temps calcul; Microprocesseur; Coefficient corrélation FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Road traffic; Numerical simulation; Traffic flow; Origin destination model; Routing; Data gathering; Coding; Microscopic model; Software development; Utah; Capacity of traffic; Computer configuration; Computation time; Microprocessor; Correlation coefficient EG : United States; North America; America SD : Tráfico carretera; Simulación numérica; Flujo tráfico; Modelo origen destinación; Encaminamiento; Recolección dato; Codificación; Modelo microscópico; Desarrollo logicial; Utah; Volumen tráfico; Configuración ordenador; Tiempo computación; Microprocesador; Coeficiente correlación LO : INIST-10459B.354000074265220100 675/793 NO : PASCAL 99-0169947 INIST ET : Forecasting short-term freight transportation demand : Poisson STARMA model AU : GARRIDO (R. A.); MAHMASSANI (H. S.) AF : Department of Transportation Engineering, College of Engineering, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Casilla 306, Codigo 105/Santiago/Chili (1 aut.); Department of Civil Engineering and Department of Management Science and Information Systems, University of Texas/Austin, TX 78712/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 1998; No. 1645; Pp. 8-16; Bibl. 15 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A framework for analyzing, describing, and forecasting freight flows for operational and tactical purposes is presented. A dynamic econometric model is proposed. This model incorporates the spatial and temporal characteristics of freight demand within a stochastic framework. The model was applied in an actual context and its performance was compared with standard time series models (benchmark) for forecasting ability. The proposed model outperformed the benchmark from the econometric viewpoint. Extensive diagnostic checking and sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the modeling methodology for short-term forecasting applications. CC : 001D15B FD : Transport marchandise; Planification; Demande transport; Simulation numérique; Modèle prévision; Ecoulement trafic; Modèle économétrique; Analyse spatiale; Analyse temporelle; Estimation paramètre; Loi Poisson; Application; Spécification; Matrice corrélation; Aide diagnostic ED : Freight transportation; Planning; Transport demand; Numerical simulation; Forecast model; Traffic flow; Econometric model; Spatial analysis; Time analysis; Parameter estimation; Poisson distribution; Application; Specification; Correlation matrix; Diagnostic aid SD : Transporte mercadería; Planificación; Demanda transporte; Simulación numérica; Modelo previsión; Flujo tráfico; Modelo econométrico; Análisis espacial; Análisis temporal; Estimación parámetro; Ley Poisson; Aplicación; Especificación; Matriz correlación; Ayuda diagnóstica LO : INIST-10459B.354000074287340020 676/793 NO : PASCAL 99-0152285 INIST ET : The MISCAN-COLON simulation model for the evaluation of colorectal cancer screening AU : LOEVE (F.); BOER (R.); VAN OORTMARSSEN (G. J.); VAN BALLEGOOIJEN (M.); HABBEMA (J. D. F.) AF : Department of Public Health, Medical Faculty, Erasmus University Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Computers and biomedical research; ISSN 0010-4809; Coden CBMRB7; Etats-Unis; Da. 1999; Vol. 32; No. 1; Pp. 13-33; Bibl. 30 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A general model for evaluation of colorectal cancer screening has been implemented in the microsimulation program MISCAN-COLON. A large number of fictitious individual life histories are simulated in each of which several colorectal lesions can emerge. Next, screening for colorectal cancer is simulated, which will change some of the life histories. The demographic characteristics, the epidemiology and natural history of the disease, and the characteristics of screening are defined in the input. All kinds of assumptions on the natural history of colorectal cancer and screening and surveillance strategies can easily be incorporated in the model. MISCAN-COLON gives detailed output of incidence, prevalence and mortality, and the results and effects of screening. It can be used to test hypotheses about the natural history of colorectal cancer, such as the duration of progressive adenomas, and screening characteristics, such as sensitivity of tests, against empirical data. In decision making about screening, the model can be used for evaluation of screening policies, and for choosing between competing policies by comparing their simulated incremental costs and effectiveness outcomes. CC : 002B13B01 FD : Tumeur maligne; Côlon; Rectum; Simulation ordinateur; Modélisation; Implémentation; Pronostic; Estimation paramètre; Développement maladie FG : Informatique biomédicale; Appareil digestif pathologie; Intestin pathologie; Côlon pathologie; Rectum pathologie ED : Malignant tumor; Colon; Rectum; Computer simulation; Modeling; Implementation; Prognosis; Parameter estimation; Disease development EG : Biomedical data processing; Digestive diseases; Intestinal disease; Colonic disease; Rectal disease SD : Tumor maligno; Colón; Recto; Simulación computadora; Modelización; Ejecución; Pronóstico; Estimación parámetro; Desarrollo enfermedad LO : INIST-13490.354000074345180020 677/793 NO : PASCAL 99-0135908 INIST ET : Microsimulation of rapidly resolidifying dendritic main morphologies AU : NESTLER (B.); PAVLIK (V.); MORDIKE (B.L.) AF : Foundry Institute, University of Aachen/52072 Aachen/Allemagne (1 aut.); ISF-Welding Institute, University of Aachen/52062 Aachen/Allemagne (2 aut.) DT : Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : European conference on laser treatment of materials/1998-09-22/Hannover DEU; Allemagne; Frankfurt: Werkstoff-Informationsgesellschft; Da. 1998; Pp. 271-276; ISBN 3-88355-263-1 LA : Anglais EA : We use a recently proposed 2-dimensional cellular-automaton (CA) method to model dendritic grain morphologies of the solidification microstructure that is formed after remelting metallic surfaces with a high energy source. The simulations are aimed to investigate the changes in morphologies depending on the process parameters. The specific and extreme conditions during rapid solidification are reflected by using results of calculated temperature fields at a macroscopic scale as an input data for the microstructure model. Furthermore, the reliability of our numerical model is explored by metallographic studies. The comparison with these experimentally observed grain structures shows that this micro-simulation technique allows the visualization, description and prediction of resolidifying microstructures. CC : 001B80A30F; 240 FD : Solidification; Microstructure; Automate cellulaire; Structure dendritique; Dendrite; Modélisation; Refusion; Fusion laser; Fusion surface; Traitement surface; Alliage base aluminium; Silicium alliage; Alliage binaire; Etude théorique; Etude expérimentale; Alliage Al96Si4; Al Si; 8130F FG : Métal groupe IIIA ED : Solidification; Microstructure; Cellular automata; Dendritic structure; Dendrites; Modelling; Remelting; Laser beam melting; Surface melting; Surface treatments; Aluminium base alloys; Silicon alloys; Binary alloys; Theoretical study; Experimental study EG : Group IIIA metal GD : Umschmelzen; Oberflaechenschmelzen SD : Refusión; Fusión superficie LO : INIST-Y 32054.354000073135300420 678/793 NO : PASCAL 99-0100113 BDSP FT : Les retraites individuelles à long terme : une projection par microsimulation AU : BLANCHET (Didier); CHANUT (Jean-Marie) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : ECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUE; ISSN 0336-1454; France; Da. 1998; No. 315; Pp. 95-106; Bibl. 1 p. LA : Français FA : L'avenir des retraites est généralement envisagé en termes globaux : projection des grandes masses, des niveaux de prestations ou des taux de cotisations moyens. Ceci peut se faire à l'aide de modèles relativement agrégés. Mais l'évolution des retraites présente aussi des enjeux individuels : quels seront les individus les plus touchés par tel ou tel type de réforme, comment les modifications des droits interagiront-elles avec d'autres évolutions, telle que l'évolution des carrières individuelles, des structures familiales. Un modèle de microsimulation dynamique est l'outil le plus adapté pour répondre à de telles questions. La construction d'un tel modèle est nécessairement progressive. Quelques résultats préliminaires illustrent la variété des ses utilisations potentielles, mais aussi l'importance des hypothèses qui les sous-tendent CC : 002B30A07B FD : Economie; Retraite; Prévision; Modèle; Démographie; Evolution ED : Economy; Retirement; Forecasting; Models; Demography; Evolution GD : Wirtschaft; Prognose SD : Economía; Jubilación; Previsión; Modelo; Demografía; Evolución LO : BDSP/ENSP-98 N:315 p.95-106 679/793 NO : PASCAL 99-0081768 INIST ET : Models for predicting bus delays AU : ABDELFATTAH (A. M.); KHAN (A. M.) AF : Computran Systems Corporation, 51 S. Main Ave./Clearwater, FL 33765-3952/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carleton University/Ottawa, Ontario K1S 5B6/Canada (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 1998; No. 1623; Pp. 8-15; Bibl. 7 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The provision of accurate bus arrival time information to users is essential for improving the attractiveness of public transit service. Although bus-tracking technology provides real-time information to the control center about the location of a bus, there is a need to improve the prediction of bus travel time downstream from location of last observation in mixed traffic operations. Methods are required for making predictions in normal traffic conditions, as well as in conditions in which a temporary lane closure is experienced due to a variety of reasons, such as incidents and road improvement activities. The development of models for the estimation of the effect of changes in traffic and lane closures on bus performance is described. A microsimulation approach was used, supplemented by field studies. The models developed meet calibration tests and were verified by field data. CC : 001D15C FD : Transport routier; Autobus; Transport voyageur; Temps retard; Simulation numérique; Modèle prévision; Temps arrivée; Gestion information; Etude méthode; Collecte donnée; Analyse donnée; Réseau routier; Etalonnage; Validation; Application ED : Road transportation; Bus; Passenger transportation; Delay time; Numerical simulation; Forecast model; Arrival time; Information management; Method study; Data gathering; Data analysis; Road network; Calibration; Validation; Application GD : Strassentransport; Autobus; Kalibrieren; Anwendung SD : Transporte por carretera; Autobus; Transporte pasajero; Tiempo retardo; Simulación numérica; Modelo previsión; Tiempo llegada; Gestión información; Estudio método; Recolección dato; Análisis datos; Red carretera; Contraste; Validación; Aplicación LO : INIST-10459B.354000072960080020 680/793 NO : PASCAL 99-0054080 BDSP FT : Les enseignements théoriques et pratiques des microsimulations en économie de la santé. AU : BREUIL GENIER (P.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : ECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUE; France; Da. 1998; No. 315; Pp. 73-94; Bibl. dissem.; tabl. LA : Français FA : En matière de santé peut-être encore plus que dans d'autres domaines des sciences sociales, le terme de microsimulation est employé pour désigner des modélisations très différentes : application d'un nouveau barème de remboursement à des données de dépenses de santé, agrégation de comportements individuels théoriques en information imparfaite, modélisation des interactions entre environnement socioéconomique, santé et soins, etc. Le type de modèle construit dépend évidemment de l'objectif poursuivi, et donc en général de l'utilisateur présumé du modèle. Pour schématiser, les organismes proches des pouvoirs publics privilégient le calcul de l'incidence d'une réforme sur les dépenses de santé socialisées, les statisticiens utilisent la microsimulation pour mettre en cohérence les données dont ils disposent ou éventuellement pour générer celles qui manquent, les épidémiologistes modélisent la survenue d'une maladie et parfois son traitement clinique, les économistes théoriciens s'appuient sur la microsimulation pour lier comportements individuels et agrégats macroéconomiques. Un examen de la littérature, centrée sur les modèles analysant plutôt la demande de soins, permet de faire ressortir l'intérêt de ces diverses utilisations et la richesse des résultats qui peuvent d'ores et déjà en être dégagés. CC : 002B30A11 FD : Régulation; Assurance maladie; Protection sociale; Risque; Etude comparative; Modèle; Bibliographie; Théorie; Demande; Santé; Economie santé; Comportement; France; Allemagne; Etats Unis FG : Europe; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Regulation(control); Health insurance; Welfare aids; Risk; Comparative study; Models; Bibliography; Theory; Demand; Health; Health economy; Behavior; France; Germany; United States EG : Europe; North America; America GD : Regelung; Vergleich; Bibliographie; Theorie; Frankreich; Vereinigte Staaten SD : Regulación; Seguro enfermedad; Protección social; Riesgo; Estudio comparativo; Modelo; Bibliografía; Teoría; Petición; Salud; Economía salud; Conducta; Francia; Alemania; Estados Unidos LO : BDSP/CREDES-16421, S18 681/793 NO : PASCAL 99-0054079 BDSP FT : Franchise sur les soins ambulatoires et équité sociale. AU : LACHAUD FIUME (C.); LARGERON LETENO (C.); ROCHAIX RANSON (L.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : ECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUE; France; Da. 1998; No. 315; Pp. 51-72; tabl., graph., ann. LA : Français FA : La maîtrise des dépenses de santé s'est davantage portée, depuis le début des années 90, sur la régulation de l'offre que sur celle de la demande, en maintenant inchangés le niveau et la structure de la participation financière des usagers. Leur responsabilisation resta cependant au coeur du débat et dans cette hypothèse, la mise en place de franchises sur le remboursement des soins pourrait constituer un facteur efficace de réduction du &dquot;risque moral&dquot;. Un modèle de microsimulation a été construit pour en évaluer les conséquences en termes d'équité et du point de vue de leur acceptabilité. CC : 002B30A11 FD : Régulation; Risque; Revenu individuel; Milieu familial; Modèle; Contrôle; Dépense; Demande; Santé; Utilisateur; France; Ambulatoire; Soin FG : Europe ED : Regulation(control); Risk; Personal income; Family environment; Models; Check; Expenditure; Demand; Health; User; France; Ambulatory; Care EG : Europe GD : Regelung; Frankreich SD : Regulación; Riesgo; Renta personal; Medio familiar; Modelo; Control; Gasto; Petición; Salud; Usuario; Francia; Ambulatorio; Cuidado LO : BDSP/CREDES-16420, S18 682/793 NO : PASCAL 99-0034681 INIST ET : An introduction to microsimulation AU : DRUITT (S.) AF : SIAS Limited/Inconnu (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Traffic engineering & control; ISSN 0041-0683; Coden TENCA4; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1998; Vol. 39; No. 9; Pp. 480-483 LA : Anglais CC : 001D15C FD : Trafic routier; Modélisation; Modèle simulation; Ecoulement trafic; Comportement individuel; Conducteur véhicule; Validation ED : Road traffic; Modeling; Simulation model; Traffic flow; Individual behavior; Vehicle driver; Validation SD : Tráfico carretera; Modelización; Modelo simulación; Flujo tráfico; Comportamiento individual; Conductor vehículo; Validación LO : INIST-13729.354000071031390020 683/793 NO : FRANCIS 531-99-13034 PRODIG-INTERGEO ET : Simulating the long-term labour market effects of an industrial investment. A microsimulation approach AU : LINDGREN (U.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Erdkunde; ISSN 0014-0015; Allemagne; Da. 1999; Vol. 53; No. 2; Pp. 150-162; Abs. allemand/anglais; Bibl. 45 réf.; 4 fig., 3 tabl. LA : Anglais FA : L'A. analyse les effets à long terme d'un investissement industriel sur le marché du travail suédois avec l'exemple de la société SCA située à Sundsvall au nord du pays et productrice de papier. L'A., se basant sur des études passées, conçoit une micro-simulation prévisionnelle sur 15 ans à partir de données sur les 103000 habitants de Sundsvall en activité sur place entre 1990 et 1993. Il conclut qu'il y a nécessité de faire toujours de nouveaux investissements technologiques et que les effets sur le marché du travail sont directs et indirects, avec risque de chômage accru en cas de fermeture de l'usine. - (M. Perrin) CC : 531133; 531 FD : Simulation; Scénario; Impact économique; Logiciel; Innovation; Investissement; Modèle démo-économique; Population active; Chômage; Industrie du papier; Compétitivité; Travail; Marché local du travail; Fermeture d'usine; Suède; Norrland; Sundsvall ED : Simulation; Scenario; Economic impact; Software; Innovation; Investment; Demographic-economic model; Working population; Unemployment; Paper industry; Competitiveness; Labour; Local labour market; Factory closure; Sweden LO : INTG 684/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-99-11531 INIST FT : Les retraites individuelles à long terme : une projection par microsimulation : Les modèles de microsimulation ET : (Long-term individual pensions: A microsimulated forecast) AU : BLANCHET (D.); CHANUT (J.-M.) AF : Division &dquot;Redistribution et politiques sociales&dquot; de l'Insee/France (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Economie et statistique; ISSN 0336-1454; France; Da. 1998; No. 315; 95-106, 111-116 [18 p.]; Abs. anglais/allemand/espagnol; Bibl. 18 ref. LA : Français FA : L'avenir des retraites est généralement envisagé en termes globaux : projection des grandes masses, des niveaux de prestations ou des taux de cotisations moyens. Ceci peut se faire à l'aide de modèles relativement agrégés. Mais l'évolution des retraites présente aussi des enjeux individuels : qui seront les individus les plus touchés par tel ou tel type de réforme ? Comment les modifications de droits interagiront-elles avec d'autres évolutions, telles que l'évolution des carrières individuelles ou des structures familiales ? Un modèle de microsimulation dynamique est l'outil le plus adapté pour répondre à de telles questions. A partir d'un échantillon de données individuelles, représentatif de la population totale, il consiste à simuler le vieillissement des individus, tant du point de vue démographique qu'économique, ainsi que de leurs droits sociaux. La construction d'un tel modèle est nécessairement progressive. Quelques résultats préliminaires illustrent la variété de ses utilisations potentielles, mais aussi l'importance des hypothèses qui les sous-tendent. CC : 52164; 521 FD : Retraite; Assurance vieillesse; Simulation; Projection; Inégalité; Facteur démographique; Individu; Ménage; Revenu; Evénements du cycle de vie ED : Retirement; Retirement benefit; Simulation; Projection; Inequality; Demographic factor; Individual; Household; Income; Life events LO : INIST-24228.354000071619880050 685/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-99-11527 INIST FT : Les enseignements théoriques et pratiques des microsimulations en économie de la santé : Les modèles de microsimulation ET : (The theoretical and practical lessons learnt from microsimulations in health care economics) AU : BREUIL-GENIER (P.) AF : Bureau Économie de la santé de la direction de la Sécurité sociale/France (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Economie et statistique; ISSN 0336-1454; France; Da. 1998; No. 315; 73-94, 111-116 [28 p.]; Abs. anglais/allemand/espagnol; Bibl. 2 p.1/2 LA : Français FA : En matière de santé peut-être encore plus que dans d'autres domaines des sciences sociales, le terme de microsimulation est employé pour désigner des modélisations très différentes : application d'un nouveau barème de remboursement à des données de dépenses de santé, agrégation de comportements individuels théoriques en information imparfaite, modélisation des interactions entre environnement socioéconomique, santé et soins, etc. Le type de modèle construit dépend évidemment de l'objectif poursuivi, et donc en général de l'utilisateur présumé du modèle. Pour schématiser, les organismes proches des pouvoirs publics privilégient le calcul de l'incidence d'une réforme sur les dépenses de santé socialisées, les statisticiens utilisent la microsimulation pour mettre en cohérence les données dont ils disposent ou éventuellement pour générer celles qui leur manquent, les épidémiologistes modélisent la survenue d'une maladie et parfois son traitement clinique, les économistes théoriciens s'appuient sur la microsimulation pour lier comportements individuels et agrégats macroéconomiques. Un examen de cette littérature, centrée sur les modèles analysant plutôt la demande de soins, permet de faire ressortir l'intérêt de ces diverses utilisations et la richesse des résultats qui peuvent d'ores été déjà en être dégagés. CC : 52164; 521 FD : France; Economie de la santé; Simulation; Modélisation; Assurance maladie; Epidémiologie; Allemagne; Etats-Unis; Politique sociale; Dépense; Financement; Fiscalité; Soin médical; Politique de la santé; Acceptabilité sociale ED : France; Health Economics; Simulation; Modeling; Health insurance; Epidemiology; Germany; United States Of America; Social Policy; Expenditures; Financing; Fiscal System; Health Care; Health Policy SD : Seguro de enfermedad LO : INIST-24228.354000071619880040 686/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-99-11526 INIST FT : Franchise sur les soins ambulatoires et équité sociale : Microsimulation d'une voie de responsabilisation des usagers du système de soins : Les modèles de microsimulation ET : (Uninsured out-patient care and social equity: Microsimulation of a way of making health system users pay for their spending) AU : LACHAUD-FIUME (C.); LARGERON-LETENO (C.); ROCHAIX-RANSON (L.) AF : Université Lyon I, URA 934/France (1 aut.); Université Jean Monnet Saint-Étienne - LASS - Lyon I/France (2 aut.); Université de Bretagne occidentale, département d'Économie et Laboratoire ICI (Information, Coordination, Incitations)/France (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Economie et statistique; ISSN 0336-1454; France; Da. 1998; No. 315; 51-72, 111-116 [28 p.]; Abs. anglais/allemand/espagnol; Bibl. 25 ref. LA : Français FA : La maîtrise des dépenses de santé s'est davantage portée, depuis le début des années 90, sur la régulation de l'offre que sur celle de la demande, en maintenant inchangés le niveau et la structure de la participation financière des usagers. Leur responsabilisation reste cependant au cœur du débat et dans cette hypothèse, la mise en place de franchises sur le remboursement des soins pourrait constituer un facteur efficace de réduction du « risque moral ». Un modèle de microsimulation a été construit pour en évaluer les conséquences en termes d'équité et du point de vue de leur acceptabilité sociale. Le montant d'une franchise, uniforme pour toutes les familles d'assurés sociaux, déterminé par un objectif modéré d'économie globale, s'élèverait à environ 1 000 francs par an et par famille. Comme attendu, un tel dispositif pénaliserait les familles disposant des revenus les plus modestes. Ce caractère régressif pourrait être atténué par une fixation individuelle du montant de la franchise, tenant compte de la taille et des ressources de la famille. Une modulation suivant le niveau de revenu par personne, notamment, permet même d'aboutir à une situation plus équitable que la situation initiale sans franchise. Avec cette hypothèse, le seuil imposé aux familles appartenant à la tranche médiane de revenu s'avère une variable déterminante pour un tel objectif d'équité verticale. CC : 52164; 521 FD : France; Politique sociale; Sécurité sociale; Usager; Equité; Economie de la santé; Consommation médicale; Dépense; Ménage; Revenu; Simulation; Assurance maladie ED : France; Social Policy; Social Security; User; Equity; Health Economics; Health Care Utilization; Expenditures; Household; Income; Simulation; Health insurance SD : Seguro de enfermedad LO : INIST-24228.354000071619880030 687/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-99-11525 INIST FT : Les modèles statiques de microsimulation en Europe dans les années 90 : Les modèles de microsimulation ET : (Static microsimulation models in Europe in the 1990s) AU : SUTHERLAND (H.) AF : Microsimulation Unit, au département d'Économie appliquée de l'université de Cambridge/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Economie et statistique; ISSN 0336-1454; France; Da. 1998; No. 315; 35-50, 111-116 [22 p.]; Abs. anglais/allemand/espagnol; Bibl. 7 ref. LA : Français FA : Les modèles de microsimulation sont désormais couramment utilisés comme moyen d'analyse des politiques économiques et sociales. Ils ont de nombreux domaines d'application, depuis des modèles essentiellement expérimentaux, à caractère universitaire, jusqu'à des modèles polyvalents, conçus pour des utilisateurs multiples, destinés à durer, et répondant aux besoins de décideurs gouvernementaux. S'attachant principalement aux modèles statiques de revenu individuel et de dépenses des ménages, et à leur utilisation pour simuler les transferts fiscaux et sociaux, cet article précise l'état de ce type de modélisation, vers le milieu des années 90, dans cinq pays de l'Union européenne : Belgique, France, Irlande, Italie et Royaume-Uni. Les moyens que ces modèles mettent en oeuvre ainsi que leur statut (au sein de l'administration ou dans le cadre de la recherche théorique) sont très variables. Une part de ces divergences peut trouver son explication dans une disponibilité des microdonnées fortement contrastée d'un pays à l'autre. Ces différences posent la question de la cohérence de ces modèles, et de la possibilité de les utiliser simultanément afin d'analyser les effets, dans chaque pays, de politiques qui seraient mises en oeuvre au niveau européen : de telles comparaisons se heurtent encore, en l'état actuel, à de nombreuses difficultés, qui ne pourront être résolues que de manière progressive. CC : 52118; 521 FD : Simulation; Statistique; Traitement automatique des données; Analyse comparative; Econométrie; Politique sociale; Informatique; Europe; Fiscalité; Redistribution des revenus; Evaluation; Collecte de données; Fiabilité; Politique économique; Information; Administration publique; Correction de données; Accessibilité ED : Simulation; Statistics; Automatic Data Processing; Comparative analysis; Econometric Analysis; Social Policy; Computer Science; Europe; Fiscal System; Income Redistribution; Evaluation; Data collection; Reliability; Economic Policy; Information; Public administration LO : INIST-24228.354000071619880020 688/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0534112 INIST ET : Assessing uncertainty in microsimulation modelling with application to cancer screening interventions AU : CRONIN (K. A.); LEGLER (J. M.); ETZIONI (R. D.) AF : Biometry Branch, National Cancer Institute, EPN 313, 6130, Executive Plaza North/Bethesda, MD 20892/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Applied Research Branch, National Cancer Institute, EPN 313, 6130 Executive Plaza North/Bethesda, MD 20892/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 1124 Columbia Street, MP-665/Seattle, WA 98104-2092/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Statistics in medicine; ISSN 0277-6715; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1998; Vol. 17; No. 21; Pp. 2509-2523; Bibl. 37 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Microsimulation is fast becoming the approach of choice for modelling and analysing complex processes in the absence of mathematical tractability. While this approach has been developed and promoted in engineering contexts for some time, it has more recently found a place in the mainstream of the study of chronic disease interventions such as cancer screening. The construction of a simulation model requires the specification of a model structure and sets of parameter values, both of which may have a considerable amount of uncertainty associated with them. This uncertainty is rarely quantified when reporting microsimulation results. We suggest a Bayesian approach and assume a parametric probability distribution to mathematically express the uncertainty related to model parameters. First, we design a simulation experiment to achieve good coverage of the parameter space. Second, we model a response surface for the outcome of interest as a function of the model parameters using the simulation results. Third, we summarize the variability in the outcome of interest, including variation due to parameter uncertainty, using the response surface in combination with parameter probability distributions. We illustrate the proposed method with an application of a microsimulator designed to investigate the effect of prostate specific antigen (PSA) screening on prostate cancer mortality rates. CC : 002B28F FD : Tumeur maligne; Incertitude; Modélisation; Simulation; Estimation Bayes; Analyse quantitative; Estimation paramètre; Méthode statistique; Approche probabiliste; Efficacité traitement; Homme ED : Malignant tumor; Uncertainty; Modeling; Simulation; Bayes estimation; Quantitative analysis; Parameter estimation; Statistical method; Probabilistic approach; Treatment efficiency; Human GD : Simulation; Quantitative Analyse SD : Tumor maligno; Incertidumbre; Modelización; Simulación; Estimación Bayes; Análisis cuantitativo; Estimación parámetro; Método estadístico; Enfoque probabilista; Eficacia tratamiento; Hombre LO : INIST-19624.354000071600550060 689/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0519229 INIST ET : Productivity and cost relationships for harvesting ponderosa pine plantations AU : HARTSOUGH (B. R.); GICQUEAU (A.); FIGHT (R. D.) AF : Biological and Agri. Engineering, Univ. of California/Davis, CA 95616/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Axolotl Corp./Cupertino, CA 95014/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Pacific Northwest Res. Sta., USDA Forest Serv., P.O. Box 3890/Portland, OR 97208/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Forest products journal; ISSN 0015-7473; Coden FPJOAB; Etats-Unis; Da. 1998; Vol. 48; No. 9; Pp. 87-93; Bibl. 52 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Realistic logging cost models are needed for long-term forest management planning. Data from many published studies have been combined with simple simulations to develop relations that can be used to estimate the cost of harvesting plantation-grown ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) in western North America. For gentle terrain, whole-tree/log-length and cut-to-length systems were considered. Tree-length/loglength cable logging was included for steeper terrain. The relations are applicable for trees from 3 to 250 cubic feet. A stand-alone program incorporating all the relations is available. CC : 002A33F FD : Coût; Débardage; Exploitation forestière; Planning gestion; Simulation ordinateur; Fonction coût; Modèle économétrique; Modèle simulation; Peuplement forestier artificiel; Pinus ponderosa; Etats Unis; Etude économique; Etude méthode; Etude sur modèle; Exploitation par arbre entier; Exploitation par fûts entiers; ETATS DU PACIFIQUE (EU) FG : Coniferales; Gymnospermae; Spermatophyta; Amérique du Nord; Amérique; Economie mathématique; Foresterie; Gestion forestière; Gestion automatisée; Ingénierie; Recherche opérationnelle; Arbre forestier résineux ED : Costs; Timber extraction; Forest logging; Management planning; Computer simulation; Cost function; Econometric model; Simulation model; Artificial forest stand; Pinus ponderosa; United States; Economic study; Method study; Model study; Whole tree logging; Tree length logging; PACIFIC STATES (USA) EG : Coniferales; Gymnospermae; Spermatophyta; North America; America; Mathematical economy; Forestry; Forest management; Assisted management; Engineering; Operations research; Softwood forest tree GD : Kosten; Unternehmensplanung; Elektronenrechnersimulation; Vereinigte Staaten; Wirtschaftlichkeit; Modellversuch SD : Costo; Saca madera; Explotación forestal; Programación gestión; Simulación computadora; Función coste; Modelo econométrico; Modelo simulación; Plantación forestal; Pinus ponderosa; Estados Unidos; Estudio económico; Estudio método; Estudio sobre modelo; Saca de arboles completos; Aprovechamiento de árboles enteros; ESTADOS DEL PACIFICO (EUA) LO : INIST-12709.354000070596950120 690/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0507610 BDSP FT : L'impact de la réforme de 1993 des retraites du régime général : une analyse par microsimulation AU : PELE (L.P.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : SOLIDARITE SANTE ETUDES STATISTIQUES; France; Da. 1998-01/1998-03; No. 1; Pp. 25-33; Bibl. dissem. LA : Français FA : Quel a été et quel sera l'impact de la réforme de 1993 sur l'âge de départ à la retraite ? L'étude repose sur un modèle de microsimulation permettant de comparer les liquidations avec les barèmes d'avant et d'après sa mise en oeuvre. Les résultats montrent que l'impact de la réforme est relativement limité sur les nombres d'actifs, d'inactifs, de préretraites ou de retraités dans la classe d'âge 55-65 ans ; il paraît plus sensible sur l'âge moyen à la liquidation même s'il n'agit que sur les flux et n'a de répercussions sur les stocks qu'à long terme CC : 002B30A11 FD : Retraite; Génération; Modèle; Age; France FG : Europe ED : Retirement; Generation; Models; Age; France EG : Europe GD : Frankreich SD : Jubilación; Generación; Modelo; Edad; Francia LO : BDSP/CREDES-16075, S19 691/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0489646 INIST ET : An individual choice model of energy mix AU : BOUSQUET (A.); IVALDI (M.) AF : Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique and Institut D'Economie Industrielle/Toulouse/France (1 aut.); Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique and Institut D'Economie Industrielle/Paris/France (1 aut.); Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique, INSEE/Paris/France (1 aut.); GREMAQ-EHESS, Institut D'Economie Industrielle/Toulouse/France (2 aut.); GREMAQ-EHESS, Institut D'Economie Industrielle/Paris/France (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Resource and energy economics; ISSN 0928-7655; Pays-Bas; Da. 1998; Vol. 20; No. 3; Pp. 263-286; Bibl. 26 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Usually firms operate with a restricted number of energy sources. In the dairy industry, most firms have multi-energy systems allowing them to shift from one energy source to another at almost no cost. Zero expenditures are observed because firms minimize costs and non-negativity constraints on the demand functions are binding. Estimation of demand systems when the probability of observing zero expenditures is not nil has already received attention from econometricians. However, most surveys generally report prices only for the subset of goods actually purchased. The econometrician faces a problem of missing price observations when zero expenditures occur. The originality of our approach is to propose a combined and coherent treatment of both the zero expenditures and missing data. Price equations are added to the demand system and the cost-minimizing mix of energy inputs leads to a simultaneous equation/limited dependent variable model. A general framework is provided in which it is possible to formulate parameter restrictions which guarantee consistency of the cost minimizing model and its relationship to a generalized tobit model with errors in variables. An application to a sample drawn from a survey on firms of the French dairy industry shows the strength of a model which decomposes the choice of energy mix in two parts: a qualitative preference and a quantitative decision. A micro-simulation model gives evidence of the practical use of this study. Nonetheless some theoretical points remain unsolved and should motivate further research. CC : 001D06A01A; 001D06A01C1; 230 FD : Industrie laitière; Entreprise; Demande énergie; Choix; Source énergie; Consommation énergie; Répartition par source; Analyse coût; Prix; Modèle économétrique; France FG : Europe ED : Dairy industry; Firm; Energy demand; Choice; Energy source; Energy consumption; Distribution by sources; Cost analysis; Price; Econometric model; France EG : Europe GD : Unternehmen; Energieverbrauch; Frankreich SD : Industria láctea; Empresa; Demanda energía; Elección; Fuente energética; Consumo energía; Repartición por fuente; Análisis costo; Precio; Modelo econométrico; Francia LO : INIST-17835.354000070411720040 692/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0480767 INIST ET : Operating subsidies and performance in public transit : An empirical study AU : KARLAFTIS (M. G.); MCCARTHY (P.) AF : Department of Engineering, Hellenic Air Force/Athens/Grèce (1 aut.); Department of Economics, Purdue University/West Lafayette, Indiana/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice; ISSN 0965-8564; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1998; Vol. 32; No. 5; Pp. 359-375; Bibl. 42 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Based upon several studies analyzing the effects of public transit subsidies on a system's performance, there is a consensus that public transit subsidies have increased a system's effectiveness but compromized its efficiency and overall performance. In addition to providing an extensive review of recent work on this topic, the present analysis extends prior empirical research in two significant directions. First, this study controls for cross-section heterogeneity and autocorrelation that may otherwise seriously bias the resulting estimates and invalidate statistical tests. Second, in addition to examining the effect of subsidy by source (local, state, and federal), the paper statistically tests for differential subsidy effects by system size, a topic on which the literature has been surprisingly quiet. Based upon an analysis of panel data for fixed route public transit systems in Indiana, subsidies have no general effect on transit performance. Rather, transit system size significantly influences the effect that subsidies, both in total and disaggregated by source, have on performance. Further, a simulation analysis indicates that redistributing subsidies with no change in the total subsidy level will have little impact upon transit performance, a finding which may have important implications for evaluating alternative allocation schemes. CC : 001D15B FD : Transport voyageur; Transport public; Temps parcours; Modèle économétrique; Subvention; Echelon national; Echelon régional; Indiana FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Passenger transportation; Public transportation; Transit time; Econometric model; Subsidy; National scope; Regional scope; Indiana EG : United States; North America; America SD : Transporte pasajero; Transporte público; Tiempo recorrido; Modelo econométrico; Subvención; Escalafón nacional; Escalafón regional; Indiana LO : INIST-12377A.354000072385700050 693/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0439812 INIST ET : (Effects on the Austrian economy caused by the investment of the heat and power industry) GT : Volkswirtschaftliche Effekte aufgrund der Investitionen in der österreichischen Fernwärmewirtschaft von 1996 bis 2006 AU : SCHNEIDER (F.) AF : Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Johannes Kepler Universität Linz/Autriche (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Euroheat & power; ISSN 0949-166X; Allemagne; Da. 1998; Vol. 27; No. 6; Pp. 16-18; Abs. anglais LA : Allemand EA : The Austrian heat and power industry is undertaking considerable amount of investments over the period 1996 up to 2001. The total amount is 11.7 billion Austrian Schillings (AS) and the investment is mostly undertaken in the construction sector (33.8 %), followed in the metal industry (33.4 %), in a machinery industry (10.9%) and pipelines sector (9.9%). The goal of this study is to calculate how big are the effects on the Austrian economy from these investments. With the help of an econometrically estimated simulation model for Austria, it is investigated how large are the multiplier effects due to this investment plans of the Austrian heat and power industry over the years 1996 up to 2006. With the help of this simulation model one can set up two scenarios. A first scenario without the planned (and partly already realized) investments and a second scenario, in which these investments of the Austrian heat and power industry are considered in the simulation model. Due to the different simulation results of the two scenarios, it is possible to calculate how big are the economic effects (e.g. additional employment, additional gross national product and additional income) for Austria but also for single Austrian states. The simulation results clearly show that the additional value added of gross national product over the period 1996 to 2006 is on average 6.075 billion AS per year. Also the employment effect is quite sizeable and is on average 3,347 additional employment per year over the period 1996 to 2006. Due to this investment the additional income is on average per year 1.075 billion AS over the period 1996 to 2006. The simulation results for Austria clearly demonstrate that the undertaken investments of the Austrian heat and power industry induce large additional economic effects, which will clearly stimulate the Austrian economy and help to reduce unemployment and stabilize the demand. Also these investments are from an ecological perspective worthwhile to consider, because they reduce pollution intensive heating systems of single households, which still use coal or oil burning systems. CC : 001D06A01C4; 230 FD : Industrie électrique; Production énergie électrique; Production chaleur; Chauffage urbain; Investissement; Impact économique; Emploi; Croissance économique; Modèle économétrique; Simulation; Court terme; Autriche; 1996-2001 FG : Europe ED : Electric industry; Electric power generation; Heat production; District heating; Investment; Economic impact; Employment; Economic growth; Econometric model; Simulation; Short term; Austria EG : Europe GD : Investitionen; Oesterreich SD : Producción calor; Inversión; Impacto económico; Crecimiento económico; Modelo econométrico; Corto plazo; Austria LO : INIST-15832.354000072841290010 694/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0430045 INIST ET : Simulation model for analyzing spudi with actuated signals AU : SHAFAHI (Y.); HAGHANI (A.); VIJAYAGOPALA GUPTA (K. N.); CARTER (E. C.) AF : Dept. of Civ. Engrg., Univ. of Maryland/College Park, MD 20742/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 4 aut.); Dept. of Civ. Engrg., Univ. of Maryland/College Park, MD/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); SIMCO Engineering/New York, NY/Etats-Unis (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of transportation engineering; ISSN 0733-947X; Coden JTPEDI; Etats-Unis; Da. 1998; Vol. 124; No. 5; Pp. 419-430; Bibl. 3 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A time based microsimulation model is developed for analyzing the traffic operation at single point urban diamond interchanges (SPUDI). Features of the model include actuated signal operation, protected and permitted left turn phasing, right turn phasing with and without right turn on red, traffic in shared lanes, traffic in left turn and right turn storage lanes, car following, lane changing, gap acceptance behavior, primary and secondary queue formation and dissipation. The model accepts geometric, traffic, and signal data in an interactive mode. Input files may also be created separately without going through the interactive session. The model outputs include measures of effectiveness such as stopped delay, total delay, average speed, and maximum and average queue length. These measures of effectiveness are given for each turning movement, for each approach, and for the intersection as a whole. The model outputs also show the total green time and the total yellow and all red times assigned by the actuated system to each phase during the simulation time. The model results are compared with the actual data collected in the field. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Route et rue; Echangeur routier; Modèle simulation; Trafic routier; Feu signalisation; Géométrie; File attente; Validation; Zone urbaine; Résultat expérimental ED : Roads and streets; Interchanges; Simulation model; Road traffic; Traffic lights; Geometry; Queueing theory; Validation; Urban area; Experimental result SD : Modelo simulación; Tráfico carretera; Semáforo; Validación; Zona urbana; Resultado experimental LO : INIST-572E.354000072875100030 695/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0413437 INIST ET : Impact of a nuclear phase-out in germany : results from a simulation model of the European Power Systems AU : HOSTER (F.) AF : Institute of Energy Economics, University of Cologne, Albertus Magnus Platz/50923 Köln/Allemagne (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1998; Vol. 26; No. 6; Pp. 507-518; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Anglais EA : In the near future, the integrated electricity market will have a significant influence on national energy policies in Europe. Especially in the electricity sector national policies will have to take into account the increased international complexity. This article considers the case of a German nuclear phase-out in the context of the Internal Market for electricity in Europe. More specifically, it is assumed that German nuclear capacities will be completely dismantled by 2005. It is found that in the long term such a phase-out will only lead to a moderate increase in average generation costs, but will cause a substantial impact on the volume of carbon dioxide emission. Additionally, the costs of the nuclear phase-out are influenced by the degree of interregional competition allowed within Europe. In a competitive integrated market for electricity, the costs are significantly lower than in the current system with more or less closed regional electricity markets. These results were derived by simulations with EIREM, a large scale multi-period, multi-region linear programming model of the European power systems. CC : 001D06A01B; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Politique énergétique; Production énergie électrique; Energie nucléaire; Arrêt; Impact économique; Coût production; Pollution air; Emission polluant; Carbone dioxyde; Investissement; Capacité production; Importation; Répartition par source; Prévision; Long terme; Simulation; Modèle économétrique; Programmation linéaire; Allemagne; Modéle EIREM ED : Energy policy; Electric power generation; Nuclear energy; Shutdown; Economic impact; Production cost; Air pollution; Pollutant emission; Carbon dioxide; Investment; Production capacity; Import; Distribution by sources; Forecasting; Long term; Simulation; Econometric model; Linear programming; Germany GD : Herstellkosten; Schadstoffemission; Investitionen; Import SD : Parada; Impacto económico; Coste producción; Emisión contaminante; Inversión; Capacidad producción; Importación; Repartición por fuente; Largo plazo; Modelo econométrico LO : INIST-16417.354000072373580070 696/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0327516 AIP ET : Generalized force model of traffic dynamics AU : HELBING (Dirk); TILCH (Benno) AF : II. Institute of Theoretical Physics, University of Stuttgart, 70550 Stuttgart, Germany (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Physical review. E, Statistical physics, plasmas, fluids, and related interdisciplinary topics; ISSN 1063-651X; Coden PLEEE8; Etats-Unis; Da. 1998-07; Vol. 58; No. 1; Pp. 133-138 LA : Anglais EA : Floating car data of car-following behavior in cities were compared to existing microsimulation models, after their parameters had been calibrated to the experimental data. With these parameter values, additional simulations have been carried out, e.g., of a moving car which approaches a stopped car. It turned out that, in order to manage such kinds of situations without producing accidents, improved traffic models are needed. Good results were obtained with the proposed generalized force model. CC : 001B00E70L; 001B00B70N; 001B30D10; 001D15A FD : 0570L; 0270N; 3410; 8940; Etude théorique; Trafic; Simulation numérique; Accélération; Accident ED : Theoretical study; Traffic; Digital simulation; Acceleration; Accidents LO : INIST-144 E 697/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0299094 INIST ET : MUSIC : Putting the 'M' into UTMC AU : VAN VUREN (T.); ROUTLEDGE (I.); SMITH (M.) AF : Hague Consulting Group/Pays-Bas (1 aut.); Ian Routledge Consultancy/Royaume-Uni (2 aut.); University of York/Royaume-Uni (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Traffic engineering & control; ISSN 0041-0683; Coden TENCA4; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1998; Vol. 39; No. 4; 222-229 [7 p.]; Bibl. 11 ref. LA : Anglais EA : MUSIC (Management of traffic USIng traffic flow Control and other measures), an EC-supported RTD project under DGVII's Fourth Framework Programme, will provide invaluable inputs into UTMC (urban traffic management and control). The project aims not only to provide new tools for developing traffic control strategies to support wide-ranging policy objectives, but also to provide a mechanism to assess the potential impacts of different policy options on-street. This paper sets out the principles of the MUSIC project, illustrates its implementation in state-of-the-art microsimulation-based software, presents initial simulation results and describes the planned demonstration in three cities : York in Great Britain, Porto in Portugal, and Thessaloniki in Greece. CC : 001D15C FD : Régulation trafic; Gestion trafic; Trafic routier urbain; Evaluation projet; Simulation; Implémentation; Etude cas; Ville; Grande Bretagne; Portugal; Grèce; Stratégie; Ecoulement trafic; Résultat FG : Royaume Uni; Europe ED : Traffic control; Traffic management; Urban road traffic; Project evaluation; Simulation; Implementation; Case study; Town; Great Britain; Portugal; Greece; Strategy; Traffic flow; Result EG : United Kingdom; Europe GD : Portugal SD : Gestión tráfico; Tráfico vial urbano; Evaluación proyecto; Ejecución; Estudio caso; Ciudad; Gran Bretaña; Portugal; Estrategia; Flujo tráfico; Resultado LO : INIST-13729.354000076094240010 698/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0292712 INIST ET : Residential electricity use and the potential impacts of energy efficiency options in Pakistan AU : EISWERTH (M. E.); ABENDROTH (K. W.); CILIANO (R. E.); OUERGHI (A.); OZOG (M. T.) AF : Hagler Bailly, Inc., 1881 9th Street, Suite 201/Boulder, CO 80302/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.); Hagler Bailly, Inc., 1530 Wilson Blvd., Suite 900/Arlington, VA, 22209/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); World Bank, 1818 H Street/N.W., Washington, DC 20433/Etats-Unis (4 aut.); Quantitative Research Group, 1712 Westchester Lane/Fort Collins, CO 80525/Etats-Unis (5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1998; Vol. 26; No. 4; Pp. 307-315; Bibl. 4 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Rising demands for electricity, stresses on generating systems, and concerns over environmental quality have led to increased interest in the potential benefits of energy efficiency options in a number of developing countries. In an effort to analyze electricity consumption patterns and the potential for conservation, the World Bank has managed the Pakistan Household Energy Strategy Study. One component of that study, the first of its kind in a developing country, has involved the collection of household metering and survey data to support the estimation of hourly demand regression equations and the development of energy efficiency simulation software. This manuscript summarizes the methods and results. CC : 001D06A01B; 001D06A01C4; 230 FD : Politique énergétique; Energie électrique; Consommation; Secteur domestique; Modèle économétrique; Conservation énergie; Scénario; Gestion énergie; Demande énergie; Simulation; Pakistan FG : Asie ED : Energy policy; Electric energy; Consumption; Residential sector; Econometric model; Energy conservation; Script; Energy management; Energy demand; Simulation; Pakistan EG : Asia GD : Elektrische Energie; Verbrauch; Pakistan SD : Energía eléctrica; Consumo; Sector doméstico; Modelo econométrico; Argumento; Demanda energía; Pakistan LO : INIST-16417.354000076162540040 699/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0291932 INIST ET : Generation of synthetic daily activity-travel patterns AU : KITAMURA (R.); CHEN (C.); PENDYALA (R. M.) AF : Department of Civil Engineering Systems, Kyoto University/Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-01/Japon (1 aut.); Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California at Davis/Davis, Calif. 95616/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida/Tampa, Fla. 33620-5350/Norvège (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 1997; No. 1607; Pp. 154-162; Bibl. 29 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Microsimulation approaches to travel demand forecasting are gaining increased attention because of their ability to replicate the multitude of factors underlying individual travel behavior. The implementation of microsimulation approaches usually entails the generation of synthetic households and their associated activity-travel patterns to achieve forecasts with desired levels of accuracy. A sequential approach to generating synthetic daily individual activity-travel patterns was developed. The sequential approach decomposes the entire daily activity-travel pattern into various components, namely, activity type, activity duration, activity location, work location, and mode choice and transition. The sequential modeling approach offers practicality, provides a sound behavioral basis, and accurately represents an individual's activity-travel patterns. In the proposed system each component may be estimated as a multinomial logit model. Models are specified to reflect potential associations between individual activity-travel choices and such factors as time of day, socioeconomic characteristics, and history dependence. As an example results for activity type choice models estimated and validated with the 1990 Southern California Association of Governments travel diary data set are provided. The validation results indicate that the predicted pattern of activity choices conforms with observed choices by time of day. Thus, realistic daily activity-travel patterns, which are requisites for microsimulation approaches, can be generated for synthetic households in a practical manner. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Modèle prévision; Simulation; Voyage; Ménage; Demande transport; Analyse comportementale; Vie quotidienne; Moyen transport; Formulation; Association; Choix; Activité; Résultat; Validation ED : Transportation; Forecast model; Simulation; Travel; Household; Transport demand; Behavioral analysis; Daily living; Transportation mode; Compounding (chemical); Association; Choice; Activity; Result; Validation SD : Modelo previsión; Viaje; Familia; Demanda transporte; Análisis conductual; Vida cotidiana; Medio transporte; Asociación; Elección; Actividad; Resultado; Validación LO : INIST-10459B.354000075105230210 700/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0291600 INIST ET : Travel demand forecasting using microsimulation : Initial results from case study in Pennsylvania AU : CHUNG (J.-H.); GOULIAS (K. G.) AF : Department of Urban Engineering, Chung-Ang University/Angsung-Kun, Kyungki-Do, 456-756/Corée, République de (1 aut.); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pennsylvania Transportation Institute, Pennsylvania State University. 201 Research Office Building/University Park, Pa. 16802/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Etude de cas, cas et faits cliniques; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 1997; No. 1607; Pp. 24-30; Bibl. 17 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A new practical method for more accurately estimating traffic volumes in regional transportation networks by using demographic microsimulation is described. The method, called MIDAS-USA-Version I (MUVI), is combined with another method, access management impact simulation, which uses a geographic information system as a support tool, and can create detailed highway networks that can be used in regional models. Initial results from a case study in Centre County, Pennsylvania, are presented. The case study compares sociodemographic characteristics and the resulting traffic volumes on the regional transportation network with observed data and indicates the efficacy of the concept and the models used. This method is designed to be applied anywhere in the United States, because the basic input data are always available. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Modèle prévision; Modèle simulation; Etude cas; Pennsylvanie; Transport régional; Charge trafic; Réseau routier; Système information géographique; Classification; Ménage; Expérimentation; Validation; Demande transport; Etude comparative FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Transportation; Forecast model; Simulation model; Case study; Pennsylvania; Regional transportation; Traffic load; Highway systems; Geographic information systems; Classification; Household; Experimentation; Validation; Transport demand; Comparative study EG : United States; North America; America GD : Klassifizierung; Vergleich SD : Modelo previsión; Modelo simulación; Estudio caso; Pensilvania; Transporte regional; Carga tráfico; Clasificación; Familia; Experimentación; Validación; Demanda transporte; Estudio comparativo LO : INIST-10459B.354000075105230040 701/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0169213 INIST ET : Pedestrian impedance of turning-movement saturation flow rates : Comparison of simulation, analytical, and field observations AU : ROUPHAIL (N. M.); EADS (B. S.) AF : Civil Engineering Department, CB 7908 North Carolina State University/Raleigh, N.C. 27695/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); University of Illinois, 509 E. Stoughton Street, Apt. 203/Champaign, Ill. 61820/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 1997; No. 1578; Pp. 56-63; Bibl. 6 ref. LA : Anglais EA : TRAF-NETSIM and its successor CORSIM are comprehensive microsimulation environments that have been widely used to model the urban traffic environment in the United States and abroad. CORSIM is employed in this study to simulate and evaluate the effects of pedestrian flows on right-turn saturation flow rates at signalized intersections. The saturation flow rates returned by CORSIM were compared with field data collected throughout the United States and with three existing analytical models in the United States, Australia, and Canada. These comparisons indicated that CORSIM models pedestrian interference with the turning vehicles more severely than the three analytical methods, but with a smaller effect than the empirical data indicate. Further, the empirical data exhibit a logarithmic relationship between saturation flow rate and opposing pedestrian volume, compared with the linear relationship used in the simulation and analytical models. Implications for the design and analysis of signalized intersections are presented. CC : 001D15C; 001D14O05; 295 FD : Transports; Ecoulement trafic; Trafic piéton; Zone urbaine; Impédance; Etude comparative; Modèle simulation; Intersection; Etats Unis; Australie; Canada; Expérimentation; Saturation ED : Transportation; Traffic flow; Pedestrian traffic; Urban area; Impedance; Comparative study; Simulation model; Intersections; United States; Australia; Canada; Experimentation; Saturation GD : Vergleich SD : Flujo tráfico; Tráfico peatones; Zona urbana; Impedancia; Estudio comparativo; Modelo simulación; Experimentación; Saturación LO : INIST-10459B.354000077950330080 702/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0108484 INIST ET : Tests for changes in models with a polynomial trend AU : KUAN (C.-M.) AF : Department of Economics, 21 Hsu-Chow Road, National Taiwan University/Taipei 10020/Taïwan (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 1998; Vol. 84; No. 1; Pp. 75-91; Bibl. 22 ref. LA : Anglais EA : In this paper, we propose a class of tests for changes in models with a polynomial trend, based on the 'generalized fluctuation' testing principle of Kuan and Hornik (1995). We derive the asymptotic null distributions of the proposed tests and tabulate their asymptotic critical values. We also show that these tests are consistent and have non-trivial local power against a wide class of alternatives. The simulation results suggest that the proposed tests can complement the existing tests in different time trend models. CC : 001A02H02H; 001A02H02F; 001A02H02N FD : Méthode statistique; Pont brownien; Fluctuation; Modèle économétrique ED : Statistical method; Brownian bridge; Fluctuations; Econometric model SD : Método estadístico; Puente browniano; Fluctuación; Modelo econométrico LO : INIST-16460.354000078012290040 703/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0100773 INIST ET : Modeling the internalization of external costs of transport AU : O'MAHONY (M. M.); KIRWAN (K. J.); MCGRATH (S.) AF : University of Dublin, Department of Civil, Structural, and Environmental Engineering, Museum Building, Trinity College/Dublin/Irlande (1 aut.); W. S. Atkins Planning Consultants, Ltd., Woodcote Grove, Ashley Road/Epsom, Surrey KT18 5BW/Royaume-Uni (2 aut.); Dublin Transportation Office, 69-71 Hainault Hause, St. Stephens Green/Dublin/Irlande (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 1997; No. 1576; Pp. 93-98; Bibl. 9 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Increases in traffic congestion and pollution levels in urban areas in Europe have resulted in the need to develop reliable and transferable methods of assessing the environmental and social effects of transport pricing and other regulatory policies. To achieve this, it is necessary to quantify the marginal social costs of transport as a function of travel demand and then to obtain the optimum marginal social cost by maximization of utility subject to budget constraints. The work conducted by Trinity College, Dublin, on a project (TRENEN) funded by the European Union JOULE II Non-Nuclear Energy Program is described. The project involved the development and calibration of an optimization model, the TRENEN model, based on welfare economics to address fundamental issues relating to the external costs of transport. The determination of the optimum function type used to represent the transport demand-delay relationship (which was obtained using an existing four-stage network model) for input to the TRENEN model is described. The TRENEN model is quite different from network modeling in that it is fundamentally macrolevel in its approach and works in an economic framework rather than at a traffic network level. Also discussed is a calibration of the TRENEN model for Dublin, the capital city of Ireland. Dublin currently experiences high levels of traffic congestion, particularly in the morning peak period, resulting from a heavy demand for car travel and the poor level of service associated with public transport. The possibility of using the TRENEN model, which addresses the issue of &dquot;social equilibrium&dquot; at a macrolevel, in conjunction with the more traditional &dquot;network equilibrium&dquot; approach used by traditional four-stage microsimulation modeling techniques, is discussed. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Modélisation; Internalisation; Coût; Congestion trafic; Pollution; Zone urbaine; Ecoulement trafic; Retard; Etalonnage; Irlande ED : Transportation; Modeling; Internalization; Costs; Traffic congestion; Pollution; Urban area; Traffic flow; Delay; Calibration; Ireland GD : Verzoegerung SD : Modelización; Internalización; Congestión tráfico; Zona urbana; Flujo tráfico; Retraso LO : INIST-10459B.354000079920690120 704/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0100616 Elsevier ET : Heterogeneous information arrival and option pricing AU : ASEA (P. K.); NCUBE (M.) AF : Department of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles & NBER/Los Angeles CA 90024/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Accounting and Finance, London School of Economics & INVESTEC Bank/London WC2A 2AE/Royaume-Uni (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 1998; Vol. 83; No. 1-2; Pp. 291-323; Abs. anglais LA : Anglais EA : Copyright (c) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. We model the arrival of heterogeneous information in a financial market as a doubly stochastic Poisson process (DSPP). A DSPP is a member of the family of Poisson processes in which the mean value of the process itself is governed by a stochastic mechanism. We explore the implications for pricing stock, index and foreign currency options of the assumption that the underlying security evolves as a mixed diffusion DSPP. We derive an intertemporal CAPM and demonstrate that accounting for heterogeneous information arrival may minimize the ubiquitous pricing bias - 'smile effect' - of standard option pricing models. We propose a conceptually simple but numerically intensive maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters of a DSPP. A simulation study verifies the adequacy of the asymptotic approximations in finite samples. © 1998 Elsevier Science S.A. CC : 001A02H01A; 001A02H01H; 001A02H02N FD : Marché financier; Information marché; Modèle économétrique; Processus stochastique; Processus Poisson; Estimation biaisée; Maximum vraisemblance; Comportement asymptotique ED : Financial market; Market information; Econometric model; Stochastic process; Poisson process; Biased estimation; Maximum likelihood; Asymptotic behavior SD : Mercado financiero; Información mercado; Modelo econométrico; Proceso estocástico; Proceso Poisson; Estimación sesgada; Maxima verosimilitud; Comportamiento asintótico LO : INIST-16460.354000077667780024 705/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0096663 Elsevier ET : Sources of asymmetry in production factor dynamics AU : PALM (F. C.); PFANN (G. A.) AF : Department of Quantitative Economics, Maastricht University/6200 MD Maastricht/Pays-Bas (1 aut.); Business Investment Research Center, Maastricht University/6200 MD Maastricht/Pays-Bas (2 aut.); Centre for Economic Policy Research/Royaume-Uni (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 1998; Vol. 82; No. 2; Pp. 361-392; Abs. anglais LA : Anglais EA : Copyright (c) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. In this paper we investigate possible sources of aggregate cyclical asymmetry of production factor dynamics using a trivariate structural dynamic model of capital and labor demand and output. The two sources are: internal or behavioral asymmetry resulting from asymmetry in costs of adjusting factor inputs, and external non-linearity present in the process of real factor prices, being the model's forcing variables together with productivity shocks. In the empirical analysis behavioral asymmetry and external non-linearity are disentangled by estimation (GMM) and by simulation techniques. Simulated solutions of the model's nonlinear first order necessary conditions areobtained using an extended version of the parameterized expectations algorithm (PEA). Behavioral asymmetry accounts for about 50 percent of the curvature of adjustment costs and therefore contributes in an important way to the dynamics of production factors; external non-linearity on the contrary plays only a moderate role. © 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. CC : 001A02H02H; 001A02H02I; 001A02H02N FD : Méthode statistique; Simulation statistique; Non linéarité; Analyse comportementale; Algorithme; Modèle économétrique; Modèle dynamique; Facteur production; Asymétrie; Processus réel ED : Statistical method; Statistical simulation; Nonlinearity; Behavioral analysis; Algorithm; Econometric model; Dynamic model; Production factor; Asymmetry; Real process GD : Algorithmus; Asymmetrie SD : Método estadístico; Simulación estadística; No linealidad; Análisis conductual; Algoritmo; Modelo econométrico; Modelo dinámico; Asimetría LO : INIST-16460.354000077667860014 706/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0096661 Elsevier ET : The influence of sample size on the degree of redundancy in spatial lag operators AU : BLOMMESTEIN (H. J.); KOPER (N. A. M.) AF : OECD, 2 rue André-Pascal/75755 Paris Cedex 16/France (1 aut.); University of Twente, P.O. Box 217/7500 AE Enschede/Pays-Bas; Philips Semiconductors, P.O. Box 10/9500 AA Stadskanaal/Pays-Bas (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 1998; Vol. 82; No. 2; Pp. 317-333; Abs. anglais LA : Anglais EA : Copyright (c) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. This paper analyzes redundant paths in spatial lag operators. It is shown that the sample size and the order of spatial lag largely determine the occurrence rate of redundant paths in a spatial lag operator. A mathematical expression for the occurrence rate is derived. In a simulation study it is shown that the occurrence rate is a good measure for the severity of the error introduced in spatial models when one fails to eliminate redundant paths from the spatial lag operator. © 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. CC : 001A02H02I; 001A02H02N FD : Analyse donnée; Structure donnée spatiale; Algorithme; Taille échantillon; Economie spatiale; Modèle économétrique ED : Data analysis; Spatial data structures; Algorithm; Sample size; Spatial economy; Econometric model GD : Algorithmus SD : Análisis datos; Algoritmo; Tamaño muestra; Economía espacial; Modelo econométrico LO : INIST-16460.354000077667860010 707/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0064883 EI ET : Testing the validity of kinship microsimulation AU : WACHTER (K. W.); BLACKWELL (D.); HAMMEL (E. A.) AF : Univ of California, Berkeley/Berkeley CA/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Mathematical and Computer Modelling (Oxford); ISSN 0895-7177; Coden MCMOEG; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1997; Vol. 26; No. 6; Pp. 89-104; Bibl. 30 Refs. LA : Anglais EA : Computer microsimulation is capable of generating detailed reconstructions and forecasts of the numbers of living kin that members of a population have. The available detail, specificity, and consistency of vital rates for the past and the accuracy of vital rates projected for the future necessarily limit the accuracy of the kinship estimates that can be produced. This study is an external validity test of Reeves' 1982 reconstruction and forecast of U.S. kin counts with the SOCSIM microsimulation program. The external standard is provided by estimates from the 1987-88 wave of the National Survey of Families and Households, the first detailed information on numbers and ages of kin for the United States. We compare forecasts with estimates for average numbers of living grandchildren, living full-siblings, and living half-siblings as functions of age. We find remarkably close agreement for some of the predictions, along with several instances of systematic discrepancies. The discrepancies most likely stem from errors in the forecasts rather than in the survey estimates. Interacting rather than isolable errors appear to be responsible. Our validity tests provide a basis for qualified faith in the effectiveness of kinship microsimulation. CC : 001A02H02; 001A02H01; 001D02B12 FD : Théorie; Probabilité; Simulation ordinateur; Statistique population ED : Kinship microsimulation; Theory; Probability; Computer simulation; Population statistics LO : INIST-18808 708/793 NO : PASCAL 98-0038687 INIST ET : Breast cancer screening in Navarra : Interpretation of a high detection rate at the first screening round and a low rate at the second round AU : VAN DEN AKKER-VAN MARLE (M. E.); REEP-VAN DEN BERGH (C. M. M.); BOER (R.); DEL MORAL (A.); ASCUNCE (N.); DE KONING (H. J.) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 6 aut.); Centro de Prevención de Cáncer de Mama/Pamplona/Espagne (4 aut., 5 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : International journal of cancer; ISSN 0020-7136; Coden IJCNAW; Etats-Unis; Da. 1997; Vol. 73; No. 4; Pp. 464-469; Bibl. 26 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Our objective was to evaluate the on-going European pilot project for breast cancer screening in Navarra, Spain, and to predict the effects and costs of the programme in the long run. Observed results in Navarra, consisting of more than 100,000 screens, were compared with expected results. A microsimulation screening analysis model was used that included demographical, epidemiological and screening characteristics of Navarra. Alternative assumptions on epidemiological and screening characteristics were also addressed. The observed detection rate (5.9 per 1,000 screened women) in the first round was 18% higher than expected; the observed rate in the subsequent round (2.9) was 17% lower than expected. Longer pre-clinical durations, lower sensitivity or the existence of a high-risk group in Navarra could not satisfactorily explain the first and second round results together. Nevertheless, the programme will have an important health benefit for the women involved, due to an important trend in incidence in recent years and the relatively unfavourable clinical stage distribution in Navarra. The proportion T2+ cancers that will be prevented after 10 years of screening amounts to 36%. The annual mortality reduction in steady state is expected to range between 17% (if the observed rates in the second round indicate real screening performance) to 23% (if the first round indicates real performance). Our results demonstrate that a high detection rate in the first round is insufficient to evaluate the quality of programme. Interval cancer rates, results of the subsequent round and size distributions are also crucial indicators of the quality of the screening programme and should be analysed in their specific context. CC : 002B20E02 FD : Tumeur maligne; Glande mammaire; Dépistage; Espagne; Programme sanitaire; Homme FG : Europe; Glande mammaire pathologie; Santé publique ED : Malignant tumor; Mammary gland; Medical screening; Spain; Sanitary program; Human EG : Europe; Mammary gland diseases; Public health GD : Spanien SD : Tumor maligno; Glándula mamaria; Descubrimiento; España; Programa sanitario; Hombre LO : INIST-13027.354000079625830020 709/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-98-13781 INIST FT : Les retraites et la protection sociale en Europe ET : (Pensions and social protection in Europe) AU : LEQUET-SLAMA (D.); DANGERFIELD (O.); PRANGERE (D.); PELE (L.-P.); MONTIGNY (P.); SAUNIER (J.-M.); ABRAMOVICI (G.); VOLOVITCH (P.); DURIEZ (M.); LEQUET (D.) AF : Ministère de l'Emploi et de la Solidarité, SESI/France (1 aut., 2 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut., 9 aut.); INSEE/France (3 aut.); INED, SESI/France (4 aut.); Ministère de l'Emploi et de la Solidarité, MIRE/France (7 aut.); Ministère de l'Emploi et de la Solidarité, DGS/France (8 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau monographique SO : Solidarité santé. Etudes statistiques; ISSN 0764-4493; France; Da. 1998; No. 1; ; Pp. 5-125; Bibl. dissem. LA : Français FA : Après avoir présenté l'état des retraites en 1997 en France, ce numéro étudie, par microsimulation, l'impact de la réforme de 1993 sur l'âge de départ à la retraite, puis les systèmes de retraite et les régimes de protection sociale européens. La place des transferts sociaux dans les revenus et niveaux de vie des ménages est envisagée pour les Pays-Bas, l'Espagne, le Royaume-Uni et la France. Les mouvements de privatisation et le rôle de la concurrence dans les systèmes de santé européens sont enfin examinés CC : 52164 FD : Europe; Retraite; Régime de retraite; Système de santé; Privatisation; Réforme; Union européenne; Redistribution des revenus; Niveau de vie; Sécurité sociale; Assurance vieillesse; Financement; Données statistiques; Prestation familiale; Assurance chômage ED : Europe; Retirement; Retirement Plan; Health system; Privatization; Reform; European Union; Income Redistribution; Standard of Living; Social Security; Retirement benefit; Financing; Statistical Data; Family benefit; Unemployment insurance LO : INIST-26465.354000072603270010 710/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-98-10087 INIST FT : (Microsimulation en sciences sociales) ET : Social science microsimulation AU : GILBERT (G. N.); TROITZSCH (K. G.) AF : University of Surrey at Guilford, Department of Sociology/Guildford GU2 4XMH/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.); Institut für Sozialwissenschaftliche Informatik, Universität Koblenz-Landau/Koblenz/Allemagne (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : BMS. Bulletin de méthologie sociologique; ISSN 0759-1063; France; Da. 1997; No. 56; Pp. 71-83; Abs. français; Bibl. 3 ref. LA : Anglais FA : Ci-dessous se trouvent trois articles basés sur des présentations et des discussions qui ont eu lieu au Séminaire de Dagatuhl sur la microsimulation en sciences sociales : &dquot;Une défi à l'informatique&dquot;, Schloss Dagstuhl, 1-5 mai 1995, et ont été publiés depuis dans K. G. Troitzsch. U. Mueller, G. N. Gilbert et J.E. Doran (sous la direction de), «Social Science Microsimulation», 1996, Springer Verlag. Les trois articles sont &dquot;Simulation comme une stratégie de recherche&dquot; et &dquot;Environnements et langages informatiques pour la simulation sociale : Resumé d'une discussion informelle&dquot;, par G. Nigel Gilbert, et &dquot;Simulation informatique et sciences sociales : Sur l'avenir d'une relation difficile - Résumé d'une discussion informelle&dquot; par Klaus G. Troitzsch CC : 5218 FD : Bibliographie; Simulation; Microsociologie; Sciences sociales; Congrès; Informatique; Allemagne; Recherche scientifique; Méthodologie; Modélisation; Milieu social; Microsimulation; Date 1-5 mai 1995 ED : Bibliography; Simulation; Microsociology; Social sciences; Congress; Computer Science; Germany; Scientific Research; Methodology; Modeling; Social Environment LO : INIST-26065.354000068320500040 711/793 NO : PASCAL 97-0545398 Elsevier ET : Self-selection with measurement errors A microeconometric analysis of the decision to seek tax assistance and its implications for tax compliance AU : ERARD (B.) AF : Department of Economics, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive/Ottawa, Ont./Canada (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 1997; Vol. 81; No. 2; Pp. 319-356; Abs. anglais LA : Anglais EA : Copyright (c) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. A joint analysis of tax preparation mode and federal income tax noncompliance is performed using individual level audit data. To control for the nonrandom allocation of taxpayers to their chosen modes of tax preparation, an endogenous switching specification is employed. The framework is then extended to control for two separate forms of measurement error. First, although behavioral models of tax noncompliance typically account only for deliberate misreporting, audit-based measures of noncompliance include both deliberate and unintentional reporting violations. A statistical procedure is developed to distinguish between these two alternative sources of noncompliance. Second, auditors are not always successful in uncovering noncompliance when it is present. A detection controlled estimation procedure is employed to account for detection errors. © 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. CC : 001A02H02N; 001A02H02D; 001A02H02H FD : Erreur mesure; Analyse microéconomique; Modèle comportement; Détection erreur; Modèle économétrique; Estimation paramètre; Simulation numérique; Préparation taxe; Evasion taxe; Description donnée; Auto détection; Procédure statistique; Procédure estimation; Sélection échantillon ED : Measurement error; Microeconomic analysis; Behavior model; Error detection; Econometric model; Parameter estimation; Numerical simulation; Self detection; Statistical procedure; Estimation procedure; Sample selection GD : Messfehler SD : Error medida; Análisis microeconómico; Modelo comportamiento; Detección error; Modelo econométrico; Estimación parámetro; Simulación numérica LO : INIST-16460.354000068458210004 712/793 NO : PASCAL 97-0531064 INIST ET : Maximizing probable oil field profit : Uncertainties on well spacing AU : MACKAY (J. A.); LERCHE (I.) AF : Texaco, E&P Technology Division, P. O. Box 770070/Houston, TX 77215/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Geological Sciences, University of South Carolina/Columbia, SC 29208/Etats-Unis (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy exploration & exploitation; ISSN 0144-5987; Coden EEEXDU; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1997; Vol. 15; No. 3; Pp. 217-238; Bibl. 3 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The influence of uncertainties infield development costs, well costs, lifting costs, selling price, discount factor, and oil field reserves are evaluated for their impact on assessing probable ranges of uncertainty on present day worth PDW, oil field lifetime &tgr;2/3, optimum number of wells OWI, and the minimum (n-) and maximum (n+) number of wells to produce a PDW ≥ 0. The relative importance of different factors in contributing to the uncertainties in PDW, &tgr;2/3, OWI, n- and n+ is also analyzed. Numerical illustrations indicate how the maximum PDW depends on the ranges of parameter values, drawn from probability distributions using Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, the procedure illustrates the relative importance of contributions of individual factors to the total uncertainty, so that one can assess where to place effort to improve ranges of uncertainty; while the volatility of each estimate allows one to determine when such effort is needful. CC : 001D06A01C2B; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Economie industrielle; Economie pétrolière; Exploitation; Champ pétrole; Stratégie optimale; Incertitude; Analyse coût; Optimisation économique; Rentabilité; Modèle économétrique; Simulation numérique; Méthode Monte Carlo ED : Industrial economics; Oil economy; Exploitation; Oil fields; Optimal strategy; Uncertainty; Cost analysis; Economic optimization; Profitability; Econometric model; Numerical simulation; Monte Carlo methods SD : Economía petrolera; Explotación; Estrategia optima; Incertidumbre; Análisis costo; Optimización económica; Rentabilidad; Modelo econométrico; Simulación numérica LO : INIST-19605.354000068495670020 713/793 NO : PASCAL 97-0504351 INIST ET : Investigating strategies to reduce CO2 emissions from the electricity sector : the case of Greece AU : VASSOS (S.); VLACHOU (S.); BUNN (Derek W.); LARSEN (Erik R.); VLAHOS (Kiriakos) AF : Strategy and Planning Department, Public Power Corporation of Greece/Athens/Grèce (1 aut.); Department of Economics, Athens University of Economics and Business, 76, Patission St/Athens 14434/Grèce (2 aut.); London Business School/London/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1997; Vol. 25; No. 3; Pp. 327-336; Bibl. 32 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper investigates strategies to reduce CO2 emissions from the electricity sector. In particular, it explores possibilities on the supply side and the significance of demand-side changes. It uses an economic engineering model for electricity generation capacity expansion which combines stochastic simulation for production-cost calculations and dynamic programming for selecting the optimum expansion plan. The model is used to investigate optimal strategies for stabilizing CO2 emissions from the electricity sector in Greece; these accounted for 50% of CO2 emissions produced in the country in 1990. It is also used to estimate the optimal tax required to achieve the optimal strategy for controlling CO2 emissions to the desired level. CC : 001D06A01B; 230 FD : Politique énergétique; Protection; Environnement; Prévention pollution; Pollution air; Carbone dioxyde; Industrie électrique; Optimisation économique; Production énergie électrique; Capacité production; Analyse coût; Programmation dynamique; Simulation stochastique; Modèle économétrique; Grèce ED : Energy policy; Protection; Environment; Pollution prevention; Air pollution; Carbon dioxide; Electric industry; Economic optimization; Electric power generation; Production capacity; Cost analysis; Dynamic programming; Stochastic simulation; Econometric model; Greece GD : Umgebung SD : Medio ambiente; Prevención polución; Optimización económica; Capacidad producción; Análisis costo; Simulación estocástica; Modelo econométrico LO : INIST-16417.354000069176120060 714/793 NO : PASCAL 97-0503915 INIST ET : Emission reduction strategies for Central and Eastern Europe AU : LUETH (O.); JATTKE (A.); SCHOETTLE (H.); WIETSCHEL (M.); RENTZ (O.); BUNN (Derek W.); LARSEN (Erik R.); VLAHOS (Kiriakos) AF : Institute for Industrial Production (IIP), University of Karlsruhe, Hertzstr. 16/76187, Karlsruhe/Allemagne (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut., 5 aut.); London Business School/London/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Energy policy; ISSN 0301-4215; Coden ENPYAC; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1997; Vol. 25; No. 3; Pp. 305-312; Bibl. 22 ref. LA : Anglais EA : International agreements and national policy aiming at emission reduction require information on the current situation as well as recommendations on how to avoid harmful environmental effects in a cost-effective way. Energy-environment models, such as the LP-model EFOM-ENV, can be used (1) to analyze the influences of structural changes and energy saving measures (2) to study the effects of strategies aiming at a simultaneous reduction of multiple pollutants and (3) to develop emission and deposition reduction strategies. Selected results of EFOM-ENV applications in several Central and Eastern European countries are presented here. They show a high potential for fuel and technology switching as well as for energy saving measures in these countries. This leads to emission reduction costs which are significantly lower than in Western European countries. CC : 001D06A01B; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Politique énergétique; Prévention pollution; Pollution air; Protection; Environnement; Méthodologie; Modèle économétrique; Stratégie; Scénario; Simulation; Consommation énergie; Répartition par source; Emission polluant; Ukraine; Pologne; Slovaquie; République tchèque; Moyen terme FG : Europe Est; Europe ED : Energy policy; Pollution prevention; Air pollution; Protection; Environment; Methodology; Econometric model; Strategy; Script; Simulation; Energy consumption; Distribution by sources; Pollutant emission; Ukraine; Poland; Slovakia; Czech Republic; Medium term EG : Eastern Europe; Europe GD : Umgebung; Energieverbrauch; Schadstoffemission SD : Prevención polución; Medio ambiente; Metodología; Modelo econométrico; Estrategia; Argumento; Consumo energía; Repartición por fuente; Emisión contaminante; Ukrania; Eslovaquia; República checa; Término medio LO : INIST-16417.354000069176120040 715/793 NO : PASCAL 97-0468190 INIST ET : Estimating small area demand for water: A new methodology AU : CLARKE (G. P.); KASHTI (A.); MCDONALD (A.); WILLIAMSON (P.) AF : School of Geography, University of Leeds/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut.); As above and the Leeds Environment Centre/Royaume-Uni (3 aut.); Department of Geography, University of Liverpool/Royaume-Uni (4 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management; ISSN 1360-4015; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1997; Vol. 11; No. 3; Pp. 186-192; Bibl. 39 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The estimation of water demand is fundamental to effective water resource management. Water supply is measured at district level but true demand is not, and therefore studies of water-pricing relations are limited and mass-balance based assessment of leakage, illegal use, meter inaccuracies, etc., are compromised. This paper describes the value and limitations of existing geodemographic methods, and an alternative technique widely used in other fields, microsimulation, is proposed. It is shown that geographic stability in demand relations is not found in all consumer commodities and cannot be assumed for water. Sampled data for Leeds, West Yorkshire, are used to construct a microsimulation model, and the results of that model are applied to the city of Leeds at ward level. Applicability. is also demonstrated at enumeration district level. CC : 001D16A01 FD : Gestion ressource eau; Approvisionnement eau; Demande; Simulation ED : Water resource management; Water supply; Demand; Simulation GD : Simulation SD : Gestión recurso agua; Alimentación agua; Petición; Simulación LO : INIST-1042.354000067223500050 716/793 NO : PASCAL 97-0433155 INIST ET : Federalism and health system reform : Prospects for state action AU : MARQUIS (M. S.); LONG (S. H.) AF : RAND/Washington, DC/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : JAMA, the journal of the American Medical Association; ISSN 0098-7484; Etats-Unis; Da. 1997; Vol. 278; No. 6; Pp. 514-517; Bibl. 20 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Objective.-To assess the prospect that the states, acting independently, would undertake health insurance coverage expansions that together would result in meaningful reductions in the extent of uninsurance nationally. Design.-We use microsimulation methods to contrast the federal income tax payments needed to finance a national program covering the uninsured with the state income tax payments needed to finance a state-specific program for the same purpose. The contrast reveals the effects on the tax burdens of differences among states in uninsured rates and tax capacity. Setting.-Continental United States. Patients or Other Participants.-Observations from the 1990 through 1993 Current Population Survey (N=305 477 families), weighted to represent the population of each state. Intervention.-Illustrative public health insurance program for families with incomes below 250% of poverty, not covered by current public or employer-sponsored health insurance. Main Outcome Measures.-Change in percent uninsured, change in per capita total tax payments. Results.-The per capita cost of a state-specific program is directly related to current uninsured rates, $130 in states with low uninsured rates (10%) to $230 in states with high uninsured rates (21%). This would represent increases in state total tax effort of 10% to 19%, respectively. In contrast, equal tax effort to finance a national program would imply per capita yields of about $200 in the low-uninsured states and about $150 in the high-uninsured states. Conclusions.-Substantial state tax effort would be necessary to cover the low-income uninsured-especially in states with the highest uninsured rates, which also have the lowest tax capacity. Targeted federal financial assistance may be necessary, if policymakers wish to induce many states to provide health insurance coverage for their uninsured. CC : 002B30A01B FD : Système santé; Protection sociale; Financement; Santé publique; Evolution; Homme; Etats Unis; Economie santé FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Health system; Welfare aids; Financing; Public health; Evolution; Human; United States; Health economy EG : North America; America GD : Finanzierung; Vereinigte Staaten SD : Sistema salud; Protección social; Financiación; Salud pública; Evolución; Hombre; Estados Unidos; Economía salud LO : INIST-5051.354000068161520130 717/793 NO : PASCAL 97-0390433 INIST ET : Large scale traffic simulations AU : NAGEL (K.); RICKERT (M.); BARRETT (C. L.); PALMA (José MLM.); DONGARRA (Jack) AF : Los Alamos National Laboratory, TSA-DO/SA MS M997/Los Alamos NM 87545/Espagne (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.); Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Rd/Santa Fe NM 87501/Espagne (1 aut., 3 aut.); Zentrum für Paralleles Rechnen ZPR, Universität zu Köln/50923 Köln/Espagne (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Lecture notes in computer science; ISSN 0302-9743; Allemagne; Da. 1997; Vol. 1215; Pp. 380-402; Bibl. 56 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Large scale microscopic (i.e. vehicle-based) traffic simulations pose high demands on computational speed in at least two application areas: (i) real-time traffic forecasting, and (ii) long-term planning applications (where repeated &dquot;looping&dquot; between the microsimulation and the simulated planning of individual person's behavior is necessary). As a rough number, a real-time simulation of an area such as Los Angeles (ca. 1 million travellers) will need a computational speed of much higher than 1 million &dquot;particle&dquot; (= vehicle) updates per second. This paper reviews how this problem is approached in different projects and how these approaches are dependent both on the specific questions and on the prospective user community. The approaches reach from highly parallel and vectorizable, single-bit implementations on parallel supercomputers for Statistical Physics questions, via more realistic implementations on coupled workstations, to more complicated driving dynamics implemented again on parallel supercomputers. CC : 001D02B08; 001D15C FD : Simulation; Trafic routier ED : Simulation; Road traffic GD : Simulation SD : Simulación; Tráfico carretera LO : INIST-16343.354000062523580230 718/793 NO : PASCAL 97-0368384 Elsevier ET : Job search theory, labour supply and unemployment duration AU : BLOEMEN (H. G.) AF : Center for Economic Research, Tilburg University, P.O. BOX 90153/5000 LE Tilburg/Pays-Bas (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Coden JECMB6; Pays-Bas; Da. 1997; Vol. 79; No. 2; Pp. 305-325; Abs. anglais LA : Anglais EA : Copyright (c) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. This paper presents a structural model of sequential job search, in which the individual decision makers incorporate labour supply in the job acceptance decision. The model satisfies the reservation wage property. Given the level of the offered wage rate, individuals can choose the number of weekly working hours optimally, by maximizing utility subject to the budget constraint. Specific attention is paid to the stochastic specification. The utility function contains an unobserved random component, and the job offer arrival rate contains unobserved heterogeneity. The search model is used to construct a stationary model of unemployment duration. In estimating the model, simulation methods are used to integrate out unobserved heterogeneity. The goodness of fit of the model is examined by analysis of the residuals. CC : 001A02H02N FD : Fonction utilité; Fonction aléatoire; Modèle simulation; Statistiques main œuvre; Modèle économétrique ED : Utility function; Random function; Simulation model; Labour statistics; Econometric model GD : Arbeitskraeftestatistik SD : Función utilidad; Función aleatoria; Modelo simulación; Estadísticas mano de obra; Modelo econométrico LO : INIST-16460.354000061885600012 719/793 NO : PASCAL 97-0366360 INIST ET : Economic growth, international competitiveness and environmental protection : R & D and innovation strategies with the WARM model AU : CARRARO (C.); GALEOTTI (M.); BUNN (Derek W.); LARSEN (Erik); VLAHOS (Kirikos) AF : Department of Economics, University of Venice, Ca'Foscari/30123 Venice/Italie (1 aut.); FEEM, Corso Magenta 63/20123 Milan/Italie (1 aut., 2 aut.); University of Bergamo, Piazza Rosate 2/24129 Bergamo/Italie (2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Energy economics; ISSN 0140-9883; Coden EECODR; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1997; Vol. 19; No. 1; Pp. 2-28; Bibl. 2 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : It is often argued that policies designed to protect the environment may harm economic growth. Moreover, if introduced unilaterally by a given country, they may reduce the competitiveness of domestic firms. These arguments are generally based on the assumption that environmental protection has to be achieved through the introduction of emission charges (e.g. a carbon tax). However, three issues need to be raised: first, the tax is not the only policy instrument-and is not the most efficient one-that can be used to reduce polluting emissions; secondly, even when a tax policy is implemented, it is important to assess the feedback effects induced by recycling the tax revenue; thirdly, and most importantly, the role of technical progress cannot be neglected. Therefore, there may exist a policy mix that provides firms with the correct incentives to adopt energy-saving technologies and to invest in environment-friendly R & D. The first two issues have partly been explored both in the theoretical and empirical literature. The third issue, i.e. the role of incentives to technical progress, still lacks adequate quantitative assessment. This is why a new model has been developed which endogenizes technical progress and its effects and feedbacks on economic, energy and environmental variables. Using WARM, an econometric general equilibrium model for the European Union and for each member country, this paper presents simulation results up to 2015 of the effects of some industrial-environmental policies which are aimed at protecting the environment without necessarily damaging competitiveness and economic growth. The results show that policies that stimulate environmental R & D, technological innovation and diffusion may provide firms with the correct incentives to avoid damaging the environment, while preserving their competitiveness in the market. Moreover, such a policy, based both on R&D subsidies and on innovation incentives, may not worsen the public-sector budget balance, as a result of the positive effects on economic growth. CC : 001D06A01A; 001D06A01B; 230 FD : Politique énergétique; Protection environnement; Développement durable; Politique fiscale; Innovation; Gestion ressources; Gestion énergie; Prévention pollution; Croissance économique; Modèle économétrique; Economie énergie; Politique environnement; Conservation énergie; Union européenne ED : Energy policy; Environmental protection; Sustainable development; Fiscal policy; Innovation; Resource management; Energy management; Pollution prevention; Economic growth; Econometric model; Energy economy; Environmental policy; Energy conservation; European Union GD : Umweltschutz SD : Política energética; Protección medio ambiente; Desarrollo durable; Política fiscal; Inovación; Gestión recursos; Gestión energía; Prevención polución; Crecimiento económico; Modelo econométrico; Economía energía; Política medio ambiente; Conservación energética; Unión Europea LO : INIST-18231.354000061674810010 720/793 NO : PASCAL 97-0366197 INIST ET : Are environmental taxes a free lunch : Issues in modelling the macroeconomic effects of carbon taxes AU : MABEY (N.); NIXON (J.); BUNN (Derek W.); LARSEN (Erik); VLAHOS (Kirikos) AF : London Business School, Sussex Place/Regent's Park, London NW3 4LL/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Energy economics; ISSN 0140-9883; Coden EECODR; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1997; Vol. 19; No. 1; Pp. 29-56; Bibl. 25 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Applied analysis of output and employment effects from revenue neutral environmental taxation depends critically on how the supply side of the economy is modelled. Despite the long history of theoretical and computable general equilibrium, supply-side models, the empirical basis of much of this work has been quite weak until recently. However, most econometric attempts to capture factor substitution effects have not been based on theoretically consistent structures. This paper examines the methodological issues that underlie these problems and compares the results of imposing environmental taxes in two different econometric modelling structures. The implications of theories of endogenous technical progress on the simulation properties of such models are discussed, and a simple empirically based model that embodies some of these features is presented. CC : 001D06A01B; 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Politique énergétique; Taxation; Prévention pollution; Protection environnement; Modèle macroéconomique; Modèle économétrique; Consommation combustible; Méthodologie ED : Energy policy; Taxation; Pollution prevention; Environmental protection; Macroeconomic model; Econometric model; Fuel consumption; Methodology GD : Umweltschutz; Brennstoffverbrauch SD : Política energética; Tasación; Prevención polución; Protección medio ambiente; Modelo macroeconómico; Modelo econométrico; Consumo combustible; Metodología LO : INIST-18231.354000061674810020 721/793 NO : PASCAL 97-0312515 INIST ET : Quantitative estimates of the impact of sensitivity and specificity in mammographic screening in Germany AU : WARMERDAM (P. G.); DE KONING (H. J.); BOER (R.); BEEMSTERBOER (P. M. M.); DIERKS (M.-L.); SWART (E.); ROBRA (B.-P.) AF : Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Rotterdam, PO Box 1738/3000 DR, Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.); Abteilung Epidemiologie und Sozialmedizin, Medizinische Hochschule Hannover/Allemagne (5 aut.); Institut für Sozialmedizin, Otto-von-Guericke Universität/Magdeburg/Allemagne (6 aut., 7 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of epidemiology and community health : (1979); ISSN 0143-005X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1997; Vol. 51; No. 2; Pp. 180-186; Bibl. 27 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Study objective - To estimate quantitatively the impact of the quality of mammographic screening (in terms of sensitivity and specificity) on the effects and costs of nationwide breast cancer screening. Design - Three plausible &dquot;quality&dquot; scenarios for a biennial breast cancer screening programme for women aged 50-69 in Germany were analysed in terms of costs and effects using the Microsimulation Screening Analysis model on breast cancer screening and the natural history of breast cancer. Firstly, sensitivity and specificity in the expected situation (or &dquot;baseline&dquot; scenario) were estimated from a model based analysis of empirical data from 35 000 screening examinations in two German pilot projects. In the second &dquot;high quality&dquot; scenario, these properties were based on the more favourable diagnostic results from breast cancer screening projects and the nationwide programme in The Netherlands. Thirdly, a worst case, &dquot;low quality&dquot; hypothetical scenario with a 25% lower sensitivity than that experienced in The Netherlands was analysed. Setting - The epidemiological and social situation in Germany in relation to mass screening for breast cancer. Results - In the &dquot;baseline&dquot; scenario, an 11% reduction in breast cancer mortality was expected in the total German female population, ie 2100 breast cancer deaths would be prevented per year. It was estimated that the &dquot;high quality&dquot; scenario, based on Dutch experience, would lead to the prevention of an additional 200 deaths per year and would also cut the number of false positive biopsy results by half. The cost per life year gained varied from Deutsche mark (DM) 15 000 in the &dquot;high quality&dquot; scenario to DM 21 000 in the &dquot;low quality&dquot; setting. Conclusions - Up to 20% of the total costs of a screening programme can be spent on quality improvement in order to achieve a substantially higher reduction in mortality and reduce undesirable side effects while retaining the same cost effectiveness ratio as that estimated from the German data. CC : 002B30A01C FD : Mammographie; Dépistage; Tumeur maligne; Glande mammaire; Assurance qualité; Evaluation; Programme sanitaire; Prévention; Analyse coût efficacité; Femme; Allemagne; Santé publique; Simulation ordinateur FG : Homme; Europe; Radiodiagnostic; Glande mammaire pathologie ED : Mammography; Medical screening; Malignant tumor; Mammary gland; Quality assurance; Evaluation; Sanitary program; Prevention; Cost efficiency analysis; Woman; Germany; Public health; Computer simulation EG : Human; Europe; Radiodiagnosis; Mammary gland diseases GD : Guetesicherung; Auswertung; Elektronenrechnersimulation SD : Mastografía; Descubrimiento; Tumor maligno; Glándula mamaria; Aseguración calidad; Evaluación; Programa sanitario; Prevención; Análisis costo eficacia; Mujer; Alemania; Salud pública; Simulación computadora LO : INIST-9272.354000065691810150 722/793 NO : PASCAL 97-0144126 INIST ET : A regional linear logit fuel demand model for electric utilities AU : MOODY (C. E.) AF : Department of Economics, College of William and Mary/Williamsburg, VA 23187-8795/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy economics; ISSN 0140-9883; Coden EECODR; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1996; Vol. 18; No. 4; Pp. 295-314; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Anglais EA : We investigate a short-term forecasting and simulation model of utility fuel demand based on the linear logit model. The forecasting properties of the model are surprisingly good for such a simple econometric model of factor demand. The model ignores the distinctive characteristics of electric utilities (load curves, wheeling, etc.) yet produces remarkably good forecasts at both the national and regional levels. Because the model is based on neoclassical theory it can be used for simulations, making it more useful, and less ad hoc, than a pure forecasting model. CC : 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Centrale électrique; Demande; Combustible fossile; Prévision; Court terme; Modèle économétrique; Simulation; Méthodologie; Vérification expérimentale; Etats Unis; Modèle VAR; Modèle Logit; Modèle Translog FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Electric power plant; Demand; Fossil fuel; Forecasting; Short term; Econometric model; Simulation; Methodology; Experimental test; United States EG : North America; America GD : Prognose; Simulation; Vereinigte Staaten SD : Central eléctrica; Petición; Combustible fósil; Previsión; Corto plazo; Modelo econométrico; Simulación; Metodología; Verificación experimental; Estados Unidos LO : INIST-18231.354000061353550030 723/793 NO : PASCAL 97-0064555 INIST ET : Schistosim : A microsimulation model for the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis AU : DE VLAS (S. J.); VAN OORTMARSSEN (G. J.); GRYSEELS (B.); POLDERMAN (A. M.); PLAISIER (A. P.); HABBEMA (J. D. F.); BERGQUIST (N. R.); GRYSEELS (B.); GUYATT (H.) AF : Centre for Decision Sciences in Tropical Disease Control, Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas; Department of Parasitology and Tropical Medicine, University of Leiden/Leiden/Pays-Bas; TDR Programme, World Health Organization/1211 Geneva/Suisse (1 aut.); Prince Leopold Institute of Tropical Medicine/2000 Antwerp/Belgique (2 aut.); Centre for the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, University of Oxford/Oxford OX1 3PS/Royaume-Uni (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene; ISSN 0002-9637; Coden AJTHAB; Etats-Unis; Da. 1996; Vol. 55; No. 5 SUP; Pp. 170-175; Bibl. 16 ref. LA : Anglais EA : A computer simulation model, SCHISTOSIM, has been developed for the epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis, based on the stochastic microsimulation technique. The eventual aim is to evaluate and predict the effects of different control strategies. In the current state of the model, human-, worm-, and infection-related aspects have been included. However, many others, including most transmission and transmission-related mechanisms, have yet to be modeled. By simulating a series of surveys and treatments in Burundi, short-term effects of this program were satisfactorily explained by the model. However, long-term predictions did not match the observed data. Possible extensions of the model to properly describe these effects are identified. The potential of SCHISTOSIM as a tool for the prediction of outcomes of alternative control strategies is illustrated and discussed. CC : 002B05E03C1; 235 FD : Schistosomiase; Epidémiologie; Lutte sanitaire; Modèle simulation; Transmission; Morbidité; Homme; SCHISTOSIM FG : Trématodose; Helminthiase; Parasitose; Infection ED : Schistosomiasis; Epidemiology; Sanitary control; Simulation model; Transmission; Morbidity; Human EG : Trematode disease; Helminthiasis; Parasitosis; Infection GD : Transmission SD : Esquistosomiasis; Epidemiología; Lucha sanitaria; Modelo simulación; Transmisión; Morbilidad; Hombre LO : INIST-6817.354000060858650110 724/793 NO : PASCAL 97-0064554 INIST ET : The microsimulation approach to epidemiologic modeling of helminthic infections, with special reference to schistosomiasis AU : HABBEMA (J. D. F.); DE VLAS (S. J.); PLAISIER (A. P.); VAN OORTMARSSEN (G. J.); BERGQUIST (N. R.); GRYSEELS (B.); GUYATT (H.) AF : Centre for Decision Sciences in Tropical Disease Control, Department of Public Health, Erasmus University Rotterdam/Rotterdam/Pays-Bas (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.); TDR Programme, World Health Organization/1211 Geneva/Suisse (1 aut.); Prince Leopold Institute of Tropical Medicine/2000 Antwerp/Belgique (2 aut.); Centre for the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, University of Oxford/Oxford OX1 3PS/Royaume-Uni (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene; ISSN 0002-9637; Coden AJTHAB; Etats-Unis; Da. 1996; Vol. 55; No. 5 SUP; Pp. 165-169; Bibl. 13 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The microsimulation technique has been used since 1985 as a tool for epidemiologic modeling of helminthic infections. This technique is characterized by mimicking individual life histories, which makes it possible to include several relevant processes and mechanisms that have not so far been considered in applied modeling. Biological, epidemiologic, and social processes can be simulated in detail, which allows realistic prediction of the impact of control strategies. It is clear that careful quantification and validation of the many processes and parameters in the model requires close collaboration with experts working on control projects. In the development and application of a microsimulation model, we distinguish eight steps, ranging from the identification of questions the model will be designed to address, to the completion of a model that can be used as a routine decision-making tool in a control program. CC : 002B05E03C1; 235 FD : Schistosomiase; Modélisation; Epidémiologie; Homme FG : Trématodose; Helminthiase; Parasitose; Infection ED : Schistosomiasis; Modeling; Epidemiology; Human EG : Trematode disease; Helminthiasis; Parasitosis; Infection SD : Esquistosomiasis; Modelización; Epidemiología; Hombre LO : INIST-6817.354000060858650100 725/793 NO : PASCAL 97-0059963 BDSP FT : (Analyse coût efficacité de la mammographie : résultats obtenus à partir d'un modèle de microsimulation en Nouvelle Zélande) ET : The cost-effectiveness of mammography screening : evidence from a microsimulation model for New Zeland AU : SZETO (K.L.); DEVLIN (N.J.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : HEALTH POLICY; Pays-Bas; Da. 1996-11; Vol. 38; No. 2; Pp. 101-115; Bibl. 39 ref.; 6 tabl. LA : Anglais FA : La mammographie est un des rares moyens de faire baisser le taux de mortalité par cancer. La Nouvelle-Zélande a mis au point un programme national de dépistage dans deux régions (Otago/Southland and Waikato) en 1991. Cet article essaie d'évaluer le gain économique obtenu suite à ce programme CC : 002B30A11 FD : Analyse coût efficacité; Mammographie; Modèle ED : Cost efficiency analysis; Mammography; Models SD : Análisis costo eficacia; Mastografía; Modelo LO : BDSP/CREDES 726/793 NO : PASCAL 97-0040016 Elsevier ET : Fuel, crop, and water substitution in irrigated agriculture AU : EDWARDS (B. K.); HOWITT (R. E.); FLAIM (S. J.) AF : The Law and Economics Consulting Group, Inc., One Rotary Center, 1560 Sherman Avenue, Suite 1260/Evanston/Etats-Unis (1 aut.); Department of Agricultural Economics, University of California at Davis/Davis/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); International Energy Agency, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2 rue André-Pascal/75775 Paris Cedex 16/France (3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Resource and energy economics; ISSN 0928-7655; Pays-Bas; Da. 1996; Vol. 18; No. 3; Pp. 311-331; Abs. anglais LA : Anglais EA : Copyright (c) 1996 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. This paper examines how changes in electricity costs can alter input use in farming and the resulting composition of output. The agricultural sectors of two states, Arizona and Colorado, are modeled using nonlinear optimization methods to estimate responses to changing relative fuel costs. Simulation results suggest that farmers respond systematically to increases in electricity costs, and do so in ways that involve three areas of change: (1&rpar; the substitution between water and other inputs; (2&rpar; the crop allocation on irrigated land; and (3&rpar; changes in the total irrigated area. For both states, higher electricity prices lead to reductions in water use, with most of these reductions accounted for by reductions in electrically pumped groundwater use, with own-price own-price elasticities on the order of −0.64 and −0.68 for Arizona and Colorado, respectively, a result comparable to estimates obtained econometrically elsewhere. The results also confirm complementarity between energy and irrigated land and substitutability between energy and dryland acreage. CC : 002A32C01B2; 002A32C03B; 230 FD : Assolement; Coût énergie; Echelon régional; Energie électrique; Irrigation; Modèle économétrique; Production végétale; Simulation numérique; Substitution; Plante cultivée; Carburant; Eau; Intrant agricole; Arizona; Colorado; Analyse entrée sortie; Etude économique; Etude régionale; Etude sur modèle; CULTURE IRRIGUEE FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique; Economie agricole; Economie énergie; Modélisation; Système agraire; Système production ED : Crop shift; Energy cost; Regional scope; Electric energy; Irrigation; Econometric model; Plant production; Numerical simulation; Substitution; Cultivated plant; Motor fuel; Water; Farm input; Arizona; Colorado; Input output analysis; Economic study; Regional study; Model study; IRRIGATED FARMING EG : United States; North America; America; Agricultural economics; Energy economy; Modeling; Agricultural system; Production system GD : Energiekosten; Elektrische Energie; Substitution; Wasser; Wirtschaftlichkeit; Modellversuch SD : Sucesión cultivo; Coste energía; Escalafón regional; Energía eléctrica; Irrigación; Modelo econométrico; Produccíon vegetal; Simulación numérica; Substitución; Planta cultivada; Carburante; Agua; Insumo agrícola; Arizona; Colorado; Análisis entrada salida; Estudio económico; Estudio regional; Estudio sobre modelo; AGRICULTURA DE REGADIO LO : INIST-17835.354000060720200010 727/793 NO : FRANCIS 531-97-11006 PRODIG-INTERGEO FT : (Aspects économico-géographiques de la modélisation des centres textiles en Bulgarie) OT : Ekonomiko-geografičeskie aspekty modelirovaniâ tekstil'nyh centrov Bolgarii AU : POPOVA (N.T.); KHANIN (S.E.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta, Ser. V, Geografiâ; ISSN 0201-7385; Russie; Da. 1995; No. 4; Pp. 31-37; Abs. anglais; Bibl. 4 ref.; 1 tabl. LA : Russe FA : Les AA. étudient les problèmes de modélisation économétrique et de simulation des centres de l'industrie textile en Bulgarie pour tester les scénarios effectifs du développement d'un peuplement semblable dans le cas du passage de la Russie et de la Bulgarie à l'économie de marché CC : 531313; 531 FD : Modèle économétrique; Industrie textile; Industrie; Méthodologie; Bulgarie ED : Econometric model; Textile industry; Industry; Methodology; Bulgaria LO : INIST-25001 728/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-97-14135 INIST FT : Microsimulation et évaluation de la politique familiale : quelques premiers résultats ET : (Microsimulation and family policy evaluation : some first results) AU : BLANCHET (D.); KLEIN (A.); MATH (Antoine) AF : INED/France (1 aut., 2 aut.); INSEE, division redistribution et politiques sociales/France (1 aut., 2 aut.); Caisse Nationale des Allocations Familiales CNAF, Bureau de la Recherche, 23 rue Daviel/75634 Paris/France (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Recherches et prévisions : (Paris); ISSN 1149-1590; France; Da. 1997; No. 48; Pp. 55-64; Bibl. 4 ref. LA : Français FA : Evaluer l'effet démographique de la politique familiale, c'est évaluer la proportion de ménages - en général minoritaires - qui sont susceptibles de modifier leurs comportements démographiques en réponse à la mise en place ou à la révision de cette politique. Ceci implique une modélisation de ces comportements. Ceci implique aussi une approche désagrégée, seule capable de rendre compte de l'hétérogénéité des comportements au sein de la population. Cet article propose une analyse de ce type, qui consiste en une microsimulation du processus de formation des familles, intégrant l'interaction entre ce processus, l'évolution du niveau de vie individuel et les comportements d'activité. Quelques conclusions en sont tirées quant à l'impact prospectif de différents scénarios d'évolution de la politique familiale, aussi bien du point de vue démographique ou d'activité que du point de vue des effets redistributifs CC : 52129A FD : Politique familiale; Evaluation; Redistribution; Modélisation; Facteur démographique; Comportement démographique; Taille de la famille; Modèle de comportement; Simulation; Niveau de vie; Revenu; Prospective; Données statistiques; Taux d'activité; Taux de fécondité; Méthodologie; Microsimulation ED : Family Policy; Evaluation; Redistribution; Modeling; Demographic factor; Demographic behaviour; Family Size; Behavior pattern; Simulation; Standard of Living; Income; Outlook; Statistical Data; Activity rate; Fertility Rate; Methodology LO : INIST-22918.354000067522820040 729/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-97-14133 INIST FT : L'analyse des dimensions redistributives des politiques familiales : Des méthodes et des résultats différents qui stimulent la curiosité ET : (Analysis of redistributive dimensions of family policies : different methods and results stimulating curiosity) AU : JEANDIDIER (B.); MATH (Antoine) AF : ADEPS - CNRS et Université Nancy 2/France (1 aut.); Caisse Nationale des Allocations Familiales CNAF, Bureau de la Recherche, 23 rue Daviel/75634 Paris/France (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Recherches et prévisions : (Paris); ISSN 1149-1590; France; Da. 1997; No. 48; Pp. 5-26 LA : Français FA : L'analyse du ciblage des politiques de prestations familiales dans une perspective de comparaison internationale peut s'appuyer sur différentes méthodologies. La première partie de cet article présente cinq méthodes : l'analyse des barèmes et conditions d'éligibilité aux prestations, l'analyse des statistiques globales de nombre de bénéficiaires et de masses financières, l'analyse par familles types, l'analyse de données d'enquête, l'analyse par microsimulations. Cette présentation est accompagnée d'une illustration portant sur le ciblage en direction des familles monoparentales. La seconde partie montre en quoi ces cinq méthodes, qui sont pour partie complémentaires et pour partie alternatives, peuvent parfois amener à des résultats qui ne concordent pas totalement. L'étonnement qui émerge alors de cette non-concordance révèle tout l'intérêt heuristique qu'il y a à développer simultanément différentes méthodologies pour traiter une même question CC : 52164 FD : Politique familiale; Prestation familiale; Comparaison internationale; Méthodologie; Famille; Famille incomplète; Simulation; Données statistiques; Redistribution; France; Allemagne; Irlande; Belgique; Luxembourg; Transfert monétaire; Allocation de parent isolé; Microsimulation ED : Family Policy; Family benefit; Crossnational Comparisons; Methodology; Family; Single Parent Family; Simulation; Statistical Data; Redistribution; France; Germany; Ireland; Belgium; Luxemburg; Remittance LO : INIST-22918.354000067522820010 730/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-97-14132 INIST FT : Evaluations des politiques familiales : nouvelles méthodes, premiers résultats ET : (Family policies evaluation : new methods, first results) AU : MATH (Antoine) AF : Caisse Nationale des Allocations Familiales CNAF, Bureau de la Recherche, 23 rue Daviel/75634 Paris/France (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau monographique SO : Recherches et prévisions : (Paris); ISSN 1149-1590; France; Da. 1997; No. 48; ; Pp. 65 p.; Bibl. dissem. LA : Français FA : Mesurer l'impact des politiques familiales, et notamment leurs effets redistributifs, comporte des difficultés méthodologiques mais aussi théoriques. Des comparaisons internationales sont présentées pour le cas de la méthode des microsimulations. D'un point de vue théorique, les limites de l'approche économique des modèles de comportement démographique sont examinées. Une approche désagrégée, permettant de rendre compte de l'hétérogénéité des comportements, fournit des résultats à portée prospective CC : 52129A FD : Europe; Politique familiale; Prestation familiale; Evaluation; Comparaison internationale; Méthodologie; Simulation; Famille; Famille incomplète; Données statistiques; Redistribution; Comportement économique; Comportement démographique; Structure familiale; Prospective; Taille de la famille; Modèle de comportement; Modélisation; Microsimulation ED : Europe; Family Policy; Family benefit; Evaluation; Crossnational Comparisons; Methodology; Simulation; Family; Single Parent Family; Statistical Data; Redistribution; Economic behavior; Demographic behaviour; Family structure; Outlook; Family Size; Behavior pattern; Modeling LO : INIST-22918.354000067522820000 731/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-97-14112 INIST FT : La spécificité des politiques familiales en Europe : Une application menée à l'aide de microsimulations ET : (Specificities of Family policies in Europe : an application driven with the aid of microsimulations) AU : JEANDIDIER (B.); MATH (Antoine) AF : ADEPS - CNRS et Université Nancy 2/France (1 aut.); Caisse Nationale des Allocations Familiales CNAF, Bureau de la Recherche, 23 rue Daviel/75634 Paris/France (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Recherches et prévisions : (Paris); ISSN 1149-1590; France; Da. 1997; No. 48; Pp. 27-44; Bibl. 19 ref. LA : Français FA : La spécificité de la politique de prestations familiales française par comparaison avec celles menées dans trois autres pays européens, la Belgique, l'Irlande, le Luxembourg, est analysée à l'aide d'une microsimulation qui consiste à calculer fictivement, pour un échantillon de ménages français réels, l'avantage familial monétaire (prestations familiales et avantage fiscal familial) qu'ils percevraient si ces politiques familiales étrangères étaient mises en oeuvre en France. Ainsi, en raisonnant à structure démo-économique constante, on peut mettre en valeur les spécificités propres aux politiques de prestations familiales qui font l'objet de la présente comparaison. Sont analysées successivement, puis simultanément, les spécificités suivantes : le degré de générosité globale, l'ampleur de la redistribution verticale, selon le niveau de vie, et l'ampleur des différents types de redistributions horizontales, selon le nombre d'enfants, l'âge des enfants, selon que les parents travaillent ou non, que l'enfant est ou non handicapé, que la famille est ou non biparentale CC : 52164 FD : Europe; France; Belgique; Luxembourg; Irlande; Politique familiale; Prestation familiale; Comparaison internationale; Simulation; Structure familiale; Redistribution; Revenu; Statut socio-économique; Famille incomplète; Méthodologie; Microsimulation; Avantage familial ED : Europe; France; Belgium; Luxemburg; Ireland; Family Policy; Family benefit; Crossnational Comparisons; Simulation; Family structure; Redistribution; Income; Socioeconomic status; Single Parent Family; Methodology LO : INIST-22918.354000067522820020 732/793 NO : PASCAL 96-0506428 INIST ET : Creating synthetic baseline populations AU : BECKMAN (R. J.); BAGGERLY (K. A.); MCKAY (M. D.) AF : Statistics Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory/Los Alamos, NM 87545/Etats-Unis (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part A : Policy and practice; ISSN 0965-8564; Etats-Unis; Da. 1996; Vol. 30; No. 6; Pp. 415-429; Bibl. 17 ref. LA : Anglais EA : To develop activity-based travel models using microsimulation, individual travelers and households must be considered. Methods for creating baseline synthetic populations of households and persons using 1990 census data are given. Summary tables from the Census Bureau STF-3A are used in conjunction with the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), and Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) is applied to estimate the proportion of households in a block group or census tract with a desired combination of demographics. Households are generated by selection of households from the associated PUMS according to these proportions. The tables of demographic proportions which are exploited here to make household selections from the PUMS may be used in traditional modeling. The procedures are validated by creating pseudo census tracts from PUMS samples and considering the joint distribution of the size of households and the number of vehicles in the households. It is shown that the joint distributions created by these methods do not differ substantially from the true values. Additionally the effects of small changes in the procedure, such as imputation of additional demographics and adding partial counts to the constructed demographic tables are discussed in the paper. CC : 001D15A FD : Transports; Modélisation; Déplacement; Voyage; Ménage; Statistique; Démographie ED : Transportation; Modeling; Displacement; Travel; Household; Statistics; Demography GD : Statistik SD : Transportes; Modelización; Desplazamiento; Viaje; Familia; Estadística; Demografía LO : INIST-12377A.354000066768950020 733/793 NO : PASCAL 96-0499729 INIST ET : The sequenced activity mobility simulator (SAMS) : An integrated approach to modeling transportation, land use and air quality AU : KITAMURA (R.); PAS (E. I.); LULA (C. V.); LAWTON (T. K.); BENSON (P. E.); WACHS (Martin) AF : Kyoto University/Kyoto/Japon (1 aut.); Duke University/Durham, North Carolina/Etats-Unis (2 aut.); RDC, Inc./San Francisco, California/Etats-Unis (3 aut.); METRO/Portland, Oregon/Etats-Unis (4 aut.); California Department of Transportation/Sacramento, California/Etats-Unis (5 aut.); University of California Transportation Center/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation; ISSN 0049-4488; Coden TNPRDN; Pays-Bas; Da. 1996; Vol. 23; No. 3; Pp. 267-291; Bibl. 2 p.1/4 LA : Anglais EA : The persistence of environmental problems in urban areas and the prospect of increasing congestion have precipitated a variety of new policies in the USA, with concomitant analytical and modeling requirements for transportation planning. This paper introduces the Sequenced Activity-Mobility Simulator (SAMS), a dynamic and integrated microsimulation forecasting system for transportation, land use and air quality, designed to overcome the deficiencies of conventional four-step travel demand forecasting systems. The proposed SAMS framework represents a departure from many of the conventional paradigms in travel demand forecasting. In particular, it aims at replicating the adaptative dynamics underlying transportation phenomena; explicitly incorporates the time-of-day dimension; represents human behavior based on the satisficing, as opposed to optimizing, principle; and endogenously forecasts socio-demographic, land use, vehicle fleet mix, and other variables that have traditionally been projected externally to be input into the forecasting process. CC : 001D15B FD : Transports; Modèle prévision; Demande transport; Voyage; Zone urbaine; Simulateur; Occupation sol; Qualité air; Activité; Mobilité; Modèle simulation ED : Transportation; Forecast model; Transport demand; Travel; Urban area; Simulator; Land use; Air quality; Activity; Mobility; Simulation model SD : Transportes; Modelo previsión; Demanda transporte; Viaje; Zona urbana; Simulador; Ocupación terreno; Calidad aire; Actividad; Movilidad; Modelo simulación LO : INIST-15985.354000066428140030 734/793 NO : PASCAL 96-0453092 INIST ET : Transferability of priority management techniques for urban arterials AU : CLARK (S. D.); MAY (A. D.); MONTGOMERY (F. O.) AF : Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds/Royaume-Uni (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Traffic engineering & control; ISSN 0041-0683; Coden TENCA4; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1996; Vol. 37; No. 9; 503-509 [6 p.]; Bibl. 15 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper describes the background and methodology employed in research funded by EPSRC to assess the effect of individual traffic control measures on urban arterials, both in isolation and in combination. The aim of the project was to test the transferability of the techniques developed in a DRIVE II project, PRIMAVERA, to a range of different types of urban corridor. Measures have been classed into three broad categories: Congestion Management, Public Transport Priority and Traffic Calming. The scope of these measures is wide, some operating at a junction level whilst others have an impact over a whole corridor. Measures from these categories are applied in a sophisticated microsimulation model of a series of hypothetical networks and four urban arterial corridors: three in Leeds and one in Leicester. The effects of the application of individual and integrated measures are assessed in terms of their efficiency, environmental and safety impacts using a form of Multi-Criteria Analysis. Travel time and other monetary costs are also taken into consideration. Whilst these results are of interest to local planners in the operation of each of the arterial corridors studied, a wider insight into the operation of urban arterials can be drawn from this study leading to more efficient control of the available road space. CC : 001D15C; 001D15B FD : Régulation trafic; Gestion trafic; Zone urbaine; Etude méthode; Transférabilité; Congestion trafic; Transport public; Modèle simulation; Durée trajet; Réseau routier ED : Traffic control; Traffic management; Urban area; Method study; Transferability; Traffic congestion; Public transportation; Simulation model; Travel time; Highway systems SD : Gestión tráfico; Zona urbana; Estudio método; Capacidad transferencia; Congestión tráfico; Transporte público; Modelo simulación; Duración trayecto LO : INIST-13729.354000066203150020 735/793 NO : PASCAL 96-0411086 INIST ET : Forestation as a medium term buffer stock of carbon AU : READ (P.); SAYIGH (A. A. M.) AF : Economics Department, School of Applied and International Economics, Massey University/Nouvelle-Zélande (1 aut.); 147 Hilmanton, Lower Earley, Reading RG6 4HN/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Renewable energy; ISSN 0960-1481; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1996; Vol. 9; No. 1-4; Pp. 984-988; Bibl. 6 ref. LA : Anglais CC : 001D06C06; 002A14D02A; 002A33A01; 230 FD : Allocation ressource; Atmosphère terrestre; Biomasse; Cycle carbone; Foresterie; Modèle économétrique; Modèle simulation; Occupation sol; Prix; Production énergie; Simulation numérique; Source énergie; Stockage; Biocarburant; Bois de feu; Carbone; Carbone dioxyde; Echelle planétaire; Modèle CLAM; Extension forestière; Gestion foncière FG : Biogéochimie; Biosphère; Econométrie; Economie énergie; Economie forestière; Energie naturelle; Energie renouvelable; Environnement; Gestion environnement; Gestion ressources; Mathématiques appliquées; Méthodologie; Modélisation; Gaz effet serre ED : Resource allocation; Earth atmosphere; Biomass; Carbon cycle; Forestry; Econometric model; Simulation model; Land use; Price; Power production; Numerical simulation; Energy source; Storage; Biofuel; Fuelwood; Carbon; Carbon dioxide; Planetary scale; Afforestation; Land management EG : Biogeochemistry; Biosphere; Econometrics; Energy economy; Forest economics; Natural energy; Renewable energy; Environment; Environmental management; Resource management; Applied mathematics; Methodology; Modeling; Greenhouse gas GD : Lagerung; Kohlenstoff; Kohlendioxid SD : Asignación recurso; Atmósfera terrestre; Biomasa; Ciclo carbono; Ciencias forestales; Modelo econométrico; Modelo simulación; Ocupación terreno; Precio; Producción energía; Simulación numérica; Fuente energética; Almacenamiento; Biocarburante; Leña para fuego; Carbono; Carbono dióxido; Escala planetaria; Aforestación; Ordenación de tierras LO : INIST-20690.354000044232170940 736/793 NO : PASCAL 96-0348214 INIST ET : The Canadian forest product sector : a sectoral econometric model AU : KANT (S.); AL-AMEEN (W.); NAUTIYAL (J. C.) AF : Faculty of Forestry, University of Toronto, 33 Willcocks Street/Toronton, ON M5S 3B3/Canada (1 aut., 3 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Canadian journal of forest research; ISSN 0045-5067; Coden CJFRAR; Canada; Da. 1996; Vol. 26; No. 7; Pp. 1122-1134; Abs. français; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Anglais FA : Un modèle sectoriel du secteur des produits forestiers (SPF) comprenant les industries du bois, du meuble et des pâtes et papiers a été développé et estimé à l'aide de données couvrant 31 ans (1961 à 1991). Le modèle compte sept équations décrivant son comportement ((i) la production totale, (ii) la consommation domestique, (iii) les exportations, (iv) les importations et les prix (v) de la consommation, (vi) des exportations et (vii) des importations) de même qu'une identité pour chaque industrie. Quatre identités additionnelles complètent la structure de l'ensemble du modèle SPF. La performance du modèle est évaluée par la simulation d'une période d'échantillonnage. Une prévision a été effectuée pour les 5 prochains ans, et une analyse d'impact a été réalisée quant aux changements dans le domaine de l'habitation. La prévision montre une croissance annuelle plus lente dans le secteur SPF comparativement à l'ensemble de l'économie. [Traduit par la Rédaction] CC : 002A33A01 FD : Filière bois; Foresterie; Industrie bois; Industrie papier; Marché biens services; Modèle économétrique; Modèle macroéconomique; Structure marché; Structure sectorielle; Bois; Mobilier; Papier; Pâte papier; Produit forestier FG : Econométrie; Economie forestière; Economie nationale; Mathématiques appliquées; Modélisation; Structure économique; Filière activité ED : Wood line; Forestry; Wood industry; Paper industry; Goods services market; Econometric model; Macroeconomic model; Market structure; Sector structure; Wood; Furniture; Paper; Paper pulp; Forest product EG : Econometrics; Forest economics; National economy; Applied mathematics; Modeling; Economic structure; Sector GD : Papierindustrie; Holz; Moebel; Papier SD : Ciencias forestales; Industria madera; Industria papel; Mercado bienes servicios; Modelo econométrico; Modelo macroeconómico; Estructura mercado; Estructura sectorial; Madera; Mobiliario; Papel; Pasta papel; Producto de la selva LO : INIST-19864.354000060601570020 737/793 NO : PASCAL 96-0328381 INIST ET : Conservation tillage and the use of energy and other inputs in US agriculture AU : URI (N. D.); KONYAR (K.) AF : Natural Resources and Environment Division, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture/Washington, DC/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Applied energy; ISSN 0306-2619; Coden APENDX; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1996; Vol. 54; No. 2; Pp. 75-102; Bibl. 52 ref. LA : Anglais EA : An important issue with regard to the overall effectiveness of conservationtillage practices in reducing the impact of agricultural production on the environment concerns what happens to energy, pesticide and fertilizer use as these practices are more extensively adopted. To gain some insight into this, the conservation-tillage adoption decision is modeled. Starting with the assumption that the conservation-tillage adoption decision is a two-step procedure - the first is the decision whether or not to adopt a conservation-tillage production system and the second is the decision on the extent to which conservation tillage should be used - appropriate models of the Cragg and Heckman (dominance) type are estimated. Based on farm-level data on corn production in the USA for 1987, the profile ofa farm on which conservation tillage was adopted is that the cropland had above-average slope and experienced above-average rainfall: the farm was a cash grain enterprise, and it had an above-average expenditure on pesticides, a below-average expenditure on energy and a below-average expenditure on custom pesticide applications. Additionally, for a farm adopting a no-tillage production practice, an above-average expenditure was made on fertilizer. CC : 001D06D06; 002A32C01B2; 002A32C04B2; 230 FD : Analyse énergétique; Analyse entrée sortie; Analyse système; Dépense; Modèle économétrique; Modèle simulation; Prise décision; Production végétale; Technique culturale antiérosive; Zea mays; Energie; Engrais; Intrant agricole; Pesticide; Etats Unis FG : Gramineae; Monocotyledones; Angiospermae; Spermatophyta; Amérique du Nord; Amérique; Economie agricole; Economie énergie; Economies d'énergie; Gestion production; Mathématiques appliquées; Méthodologie; Modélisation; Protection environnement; Système production; Plante céréalière; Produit agrochimique ED : Energy analysis; Input output analysis; System analysis; Expenditure; Econometric model; Simulation model; Decision making; Plant production; Conservation tillage; Zea mays; Energy; Fertilizers; Farm input; Pesticides; United States EG : Gramineae; Monocotyledones; Angiospermae; Spermatophyta; North America; America; Agricultural economics; Energy economy; Energy savings; Production management; Applied mathematics; Methodology; Modeling; Environmental protection; Production system; Cereal crop; Agricultural chemical product GD : Energie; Duenger; Vereinigte Staaten SD : Análisis energético; Análisis entrada salida; Análisis sistema; Gasto; Modelo econométrico; Modelo simulación; Toma decision; Produccíon vegetal; Técnica cultural antierosiva; Zea mays; Energía; Fertilizante; Insumo agrícola; Plaguicida; Estados Unidos LO : INIST-17162.354000044256420010 738/793 NO : PASCAL 96-0242602 CSTB PARIS FT : Démographie, Logement, Epargne et Retraite. Rapport final, Annexes au rapport final ET : (Demography, Housing, Home savings and Retirement. Final report, appendices to final report) AU : ARBONVILLE (D.); BLANCHET (D.); HOURIET-SEGARD (G.); BROUSSE (C.); MONFORT (J.A.) AF : INED/France (1 aut., 2 aut., 3 aut., 4 aut.); INSEE/Paris/France (5 aut.) DT : Rapport; Niveau monographique SO : Démographie, Logement, Epargne et Retraite. Rapport final, Annexes au rapport final; France; Paris: Plan Construction et Architecture; Da. 1994-11; PC/1353; Pp. 2 vol. 211 p. tabl. graph. LA : Français FA : L'étude des liens démographie/logement et épargne retraite a été envisagée sous trois angles complémentaires: un exercice de microsimulation du statut d'occupation des retraités futurs, une revue de la littérature (essentiellement nord américaine) sur les comportements des personnes âgées vis-à-vis du logement, la dernière partie envisage les relations qui pourraient exister entre vieillissement de la population, fonctionnement du système de retraite et fonctionnement du marché du logement. Première étude: Microsimulation des charges de logement. Deuxième étude: Niveaux de vie et ajustement du patrimoine immobilier après la retraite. Troisième étude: Marché du logement dans un modèle à générations imbriquées. (CSTB) CC : 001D14A02; 295 FD : Logement habitation; Retraite; Démographie; Sociologie; Ménage; Propriétaire; Locataire; Accession propriété; Donnée statistique; Marché logement; Typologie; Charge; Vieillard FG : Homme ED : Housing; Retirement; Demography; Sociology; Household; Owner; Tenant; Home ownership; Statistical data; Homing market; Typology; Load; Elderly EG : Human SD : Habitación; Jubilación; Demografía; Sociología; Familia; Propietario; Inquilino; Acceso propiedad; Dato estadístico; Mercado vivienda; Tipología; Carga; Anciano LO : CSTB-PC1353 739/793 NO : PASCAL 96-0233805 INIST ET : The role of chaotic processes in econometric models AU : FAREBROTHER (R. W.); SRIVASTAVA (V. K.) AF : Department of Econometrics and Social Statistics, Faculty of Economic and Social Studies, Victoria University of Manchester/Manchester M13 9PL/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.); Lucknow University/Lucknow 226007/Inde (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of statistical planning and inference; ISSN 0378-3758; Coden JSPIDN; Pays-Bas; Da. 1996; Vol. 49; No. 2; Pp. 163-176; Bibl. 7 ref. LA : Anglais EA : In this paper we investigate the suggestion that the conventional stochastic disturbance term is not an essential feature of an economic model as it can be replaced by a suitable chaotic deterministic process. This prescription is clearly justified in the context of a simulation study when the deterministic process is carefully chosen for its pseudo-random properties. But this is not true of an arbtrarily selected chaotic process (such as the logistic map) whose aperiodic behaviour depends crucially on the strict continuity of its domain of definition. We also briefly examine the possibility of developing a test which discriminates between chaotic deterministic and truly stochastic processes. Two Appendices to the paper contain a Pascal program for computing the pattern of limit cycles for the rounded logistic map and a select bibliography of the economic applications of chaos theory. CC : 001A02H01H; 001A02H02N; 001A02H02M FD : Modèle économique; Chaos; Modèle économétrique; Processus stochastique; Génération nombre aléatoire; Nombre pseudoaléatoire; Modèle non linéaire; Système déterministe; Modèle déterministe; Chaîne Markov; Trouble stochastique; Processus déterministe; Chaos déterministe ED : Economic model; Chaos; Econometric model; Stochastic process; Random number generation; Pseudorandom number; Non linear model; Deterministic system; Deterministic model; Markov chain; Deterministic chaos SD : Modelo económico; Caos; Modelo econométrico; Proceso estocástico; Generación número aleatorio; Número seudo aleatorio; Modelo no lineal; Sistema determinista; Modelo determinista; Cadena Markov LO : INIST-17575.354000053310700010 740/793 NO : PASCAL 96-0127987 BDSP FT : Propositions d'objectifs régionaux de dépenses de médecine libérale. AU : BOURNOT (M.C.); LUCAS (V.); TONNELLIER (F.) AF : Centre de Recherche d'Etudes et de Documentation en Economie de la Santé. (C.R.E.D.E.S.). Paris./France DT : Livre; Niveau monographique SO : Propositions d'objectifs régionaux de dépenses de médecine libérale. ; France; Paris: CREDES; Da. 1995-12; Pp. 27 p.; ISBN 2-878-12171-6 LA : Français FA : L'objet de cette étude est l'allocation de ressources dans le domaine de la médecine libérale. Le premier paragraphe présente diverses formules d'allocation de ressources, notamment celle qui a été proposée dans le rapport du Commissariat Général du Plan &dquot;Santé 2010&dquot;. Cette formule est calquée sur la procédure anglaise RAWP : chaque personne doit consommer une somme équivalente qui est fonction de son âge et de ses besoins. Les besoins sont estimés par un indice comparatif de mortalité. La deuxième paragraphe fait l'inventaire des données utilisées pour l'application à la médecine libérale en France. Le troisième paragraphe montre ce que serait la répartition &dquot;optimale&dquot; des dépenses, et la carte qui en résulterait avec divers indicateurs de besoins. Ce calcul est fait pour les généralistes et les spécialistes. Ensuite sont étudiés les rôles distincts joués par la structure par âge et la mortalité. Le quatrième paragraphe propose une modulation &dquot;équitable&dquot; de taux de croissance, avec les mêmes hypothèses que précédemment. La conclusion rappelle les intérêts et les limites de la simulation. CC : 002B30A11 FD : Planification; Santé; Dépense; Région; France; Modèle économétrique; Médecine libérale FG : Europe ED : Planning; Health; Expenditure; Region; France; Econometric model EG : Europe GD : Planung; Frankreich SD : Planificación; Salud; Gasto; Región; Francia; Modelo econométrico LO : BDSP/CREDES-09475 741/793 NO : PASCAL 96-0089458 INIST ET : Tourism demand models : a critique AU : ONG (C.); MCALEER (Michael); JAKEMAN (A. J.); HENDERSON-SELLERS (B.) AF : Univ. Western Australia, dep. economics/Nedlands W. Aust. 6907/Australie; Univ. western Australia, dep. economics/Nedlands W.A. 6009/Australie (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Mathematics and computers in simulation; ISSN 0378-4754; Coden MCSIDR; Pays-Bas; Da. 1995; Vol. 39; No. 3-4; Pp. 367-372; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Anglais CC : 002A26Q05 FD : Tourisme; Simulation; Modèle mathématique; Modèle économétrique; Modèle régression; Modèle loglinéaire; Fonction demande; Comportement consommateur; Homme ED : Tourism; Simulation; Mathematical model; Econometric model; Regression model; Loglinear model; Demand function; Consumer behavior; Human GD : Simulation; Mathematisches Modell SD : Turismo; Simulación; Modelo matemático; Modelo econométrico; Modelo regresión; Modelo loglineal; Función demanda; Comportamiento consumidor; Hombre LO : INIST-1331.354000059935310270 742/793 NO : PASCAL 96-0089457 INIST ET : Modelling the dynamic interactions among crime, deterrence and socio-economic variables : evidence from a vector error-correction model AU : RUMI MASIH; MCALEER (Michael); JAKEMAN (A. J.); HENDERSON-SELLERS (B.) AF : Univ. western Australia, dep. economics/Nedlands W.A. 6009/Australie (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Mathematics and computers in simulation; ISSN 0378-4754; Coden MCSIDR; Pays-Bas; Da. 1995; Vol. 39; No. 3-4; Pp. 411-416; Bibl. 11 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper uses recent advances in time series econometrics to examine the dynamic interactions among crime, a deterrent varibale and three other socio-economic variables at a macro level for Australia between 1963-1991. We exploit the idea of long-run relationships and error-correcting equilibrium in developing a vector-error correction model that incorporates these variables and identifies its short-run deviations over time while preserving the long-run information that co-exists between them. CC : 002B18C04 FD : Criminalité; Délinquance; Prévention; Analyse statistique; Modèle économétrique; Série temporelle; Processus multivarié; Correction erreur; Equilibre; Long terme; Simulation; Modèle mathématique; Etude longitudinale; Homme; Cointégration ED : Criminality; Delinquency; Prevention; Statistical analysis; Econometric model; Time series; Multivariate process; Error correction; Equilibrium; Long term; Simulation; Mathematical model; Follow up study; Human; Cointegration GD : Statistische Analyse; Fehlekorrektur; Simulation; Mathematisches Modell SD : Criminalidad; Delincuencia; Prevención; Análisis estadístico; Modelo econométrico; Serie temporal; Proceso multivariable; Corrección error; Equilibrio; Largo plazo; Simulación; Modelo matemático; Estudio longitudinal; Hombre; Cointegración LO : INIST-1331.354000059935310340 743/793 NO : PASCAL 96-0089440 INIST ET : Econometric estimation for a model with dynamic housing tenure choice AU : TAKASE (M.); MCALEER (Michael); JAKEMAN (A. J.); HENDERSON-SELLERS (B.) AF : Fukuoka univ., fac. economics/Nanakuma Jonan-ku, Fukuoka 814-01/Japon; Univ. western Australia, dep. economics/Nedlands W.A. 6009/Australie (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Mathematics and computers in simulation; ISSN 0378-4754; Coden MCSIDR; Pays-Bas; Da. 1995; Vol. 39; No. 3-4; Pp. 359-365; Bibl. 3 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The objective of this paper is to show a method for estimating the parameters of a dynamic utility maximization model which includes discrete choices and to take housing demands as an example. The utility maximization problem introduces here attempts to determine how households decide when to purchase housing and how they decide to allocate their resources between housing and non-housing consumption. CC : 002A26Q05 FD : Comportement consommateur; Simulation; Modèle mathématique; Estimation paramètre; Modèle économétrique; Fonction utilité; Maximisation; Fonction vraisemblance; Occupation logement; Logement habitation; Achat; Choix; Prise décision; Modèle économique; Homme ED : Consumer behavior; Simulation; Mathematical model; Parameter estimation; Econometric model; Utility function; Maximization; Likelihood function; Housing tenure; Housing; Purchases; Choice; Decision making; Economic model; Human GD : Simulation; Mathematisches Modell SD : Comportamiento consumidor; Simulación; Modelo matemático; Estimación parámetro; Modelo econométrico; Función utilidad; Maximización; Función verosimilitud; Ocupación alojamiento; Habitación; Compra; Elección; Toma decision; Modelo económico; Hombre LO : INIST-1331.354000059935310260 744/793 NO : PASCAL 96-0086117 INIST ET : Experimental analysis and modeling of advice compliance : results from advanced traverler information system simulation experiments AU : VAUGHN (K. M.); KITAMURA (R.); JOVANIS (P. P.) AF : Univ. California, inst. transportation studies/Davis CA 95616/Etats-Unis DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research record; ISSN 0361-1981; Coden TRREDM; Etats-Unis; Da. 1995; No. 1485; Pp. 18-26; Bibl. 17 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Computer-based microsimulation is evolving as a useful tool for the collection of travel behavior data. Analysis of the route choice problem in particular demands sequential data to capture the behavioral dynamics involved. The use of microsimulations to collect data of this type is in its infancy, because microcomputers powerful enough for this type of simulation have only recently become available. One such simulation recently completed at the University of California at Davis resulted in a data set that will support dynamic modeling. The simulation collected 32 sequential binary route choice decisions made by 343 subjects under various experimental conditions. The experimental factors included information accuracy, feedback, provision of descriptive rationale for route advice, indication of one route alternative as a freeway, and control for stops on the side road route. An analysis of the experimental treatments used in the simulation is presented, and a dynamic probabilistic model of subjects' advice compliance is developed. A regression approach was used to estimate the factor effects of an analysis of variance model of the experimental treatments. Dynamics were introduced into the model by the development of a perception variable that, when it is incorporated, leads to the adaptive expectations model. A linearized model of relative frequencies incorporating lagged dependent variables to account for behavioral dynamics is formulated and estimated. Econometric methods of pooled cross-sectional, time-series analysis are used to estimate models that account for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. CC : 001D15C FD : Route; Trafic routier; Système information; Etude expérimentale; Simulation ordinateur; Modèle dynamique; Modèle probabiliste; Choix; Modèle régression; Complaisance; Linéarisation ED : Highway; Road traffic; Information system; Experimental study; Computer simulation; Dynamic model; Probabilistic model; Choice; Regression model; Compliance; Linearization GD : Experimentelle Untersuchung; Elektronenrechnersimulation SD : Carretera; Tráfico carretera; Sistema información; Estudio experimental; Simulación computadora; Modelo dinámico; Modelo probabilista; Elección; Modelo regresión; Complacencia; Linearización LO : INIST-10459B.354000055104830030 745/793 NO : PASCAL 96-0065423 INIST ET : Estimation of sample-selection models by the maximum likelihood method AU : NAWATA (K.); MCALEER (Michael); JAKEMAN (A. J.); HENDERSON-SELLERS (B.) AF : Univ. Tokyo, dep. social international relations/Komaba, Tokyo 153/Japon; Univ. western Australia, dep. economics/Nedlands W.A. 6009/Australie (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Mathematics and computers in simulation; ISSN 0378-4754; Coden MCSIDR; Pays-Bas; Da. 1995; Vol. 39; No. 3-4; Pp. 299-303; Bibl. 13 ref. LA : Anglais CC : 001A02H02G FD : Modèle économétrique; Maximum vraisemblance; Estimation statistique; Méthode Monte Carlo; Vraisemblance; LIMDEP; Sélection échantillon ED : Econometric model; Maximum likelihood; Statistical estimation; Monte Carlo method; Sample selection GD : Monte Carlo Methode SD : Modelo econométrico; Maxima verosimilitud; Estimación estadística; Método Monte Carlo LO : INIST-1331.354000059935310160 746/793 NO : PASCAL 96-0065268 INIST ET : An expert systems approach to econometric modelling AU : OXLEY (L. T.); MCALEER (Michael); JAKEMAN (A. J.); HENDERSON-SELLERS (B.) AF : Univ. Edinburgh, dep. economics/Edinburgh EH8 9JY/Royaume-Uni; Univ. western Australia, dep. economics/Nedlands W.A. 6009/Australie (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Mathematics and computers in simulation; ISSN 0378-4754; Coden MCSIDR; Pays-Bas; Da. 1995; Vol. 39; No. 3-4; Pp. 379-383; Bibl. 18 ref. LA : Anglais CC : 001A02H02N; 001D02C07 FD : Système expert; Modélisation; Modèle économétrique; Spécification modèle; Test statistique; Test préliminaire ED : Expert system; Modeling; Econometric model; Model specification; Statistical test; Preliminary test GD : Expertensystem SD : Sistema experto; Modelización; Modelo econométrico; Especificación modelo; Test estadístico; Test preliminar LO : INIST-1331.354000059935310290 747/793 NO : PASCAL 96-0006055 INIST ET : Quantitative interpretation of age-specific mortality reductions from the Swedish breast cancer-screening trials AU : DE KONING (H. J.); BOER (R.); WARMERDAM (P. G.); BEEMSTERBOER (P. M. M.); VAN DER MAAS (P. J.) AF : Erasmus univ. Rotterdam, dep. public health/3000 DR Rotterdam/Pays-Bas DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of the National Cancer Institute; ISSN 0027-8874; Etats-Unis; Da. 1995; Vol. 87; No. 16; Pp. 1217-1223; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background : Results from five Swedish randomized trials may provide the most conclusive evidence on the effect of mammographic screening and have been used to forecast the expected reduction in breast cancer mortality in other programs. However, those trials demonstrated different degrees of reduction. The interpretation of observed mortality reduction after long follow-up for women aged 40-49 years at trial entry is both important and controversial. Purpose: We estimated what percentage of the observed mortality reduction for women aged 40-49 years at entry into the five Swedish screening trials might be attributable to screening these women at 50 years of age or older. Moreover, we calculated the most likely percentage mortality reduction for specific screening programs if the Swedish results were generalized and analyzed whether characteristics of each trial might at least partly explain the observed differences in reductions among the trials. Methods : Each Swedish trial was simulated with one underlying computer simulation model (MISCAN-MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis) of the natural history of the disease and the performance of screening, taking into account nine important trial characteristics. Improvement in prognosis for screen-detected case patients was estimated with age-specific reduction for all trials and each trial design as a reference. Results : An expected 7% reduction in breast cancer mortality for women aged 40-49 years at trial entry (relative risk [RR] = 0.93) was determined by computer modeling, assuming no improvement in prognosis for cancers that are screen detected before 50 years of age. This result indicates that, of the overall 10% observed reduction (RR = 0.90) in the five Swedish trials analyzed, most (70%) of this reduction might be attributable to screening these women in later rounds after their 50th birthday. Using additional trial information, predictions of breast cancer mortality reduction in women 50 years or older might be 11% larger than previously expected, assuming that high-quality mammographic screening can be achieved in nationwide programs. For women aged 50-69 years at trial entry, the differences in expected versus observed mortality reduction among the trials are estimated to be relatively small. (Expected mortality reductions range from 24% to 32%.) Conclusions : Results from the Swedish randomized breast cancer-screening trials should be seen as more favorable regarding the effect of mammographic screening in reducing breast cancer mortality for women aged 50-69 years than was estimated earlier. Our analyses also suggest that the improvement in prognosis due to screening for women aged 40-49 years is much smaller than that for women aged 50 years or older. Approximately, 70% of the 10% observed reduction in breast cancer mortality (i.e., 7%) for women aged 40-49 years at trial entry might be attributable to a reduction due to screening these women after they reach age 50. Implications : Detailed screening data for the 40- to 49-year age group of all Swedish trials should be analyzed to specifically estimate the natural history and performance of screening in this age group. CC : 002B20E02 FD : Tumeur maligne; Glande mammaire; Mammographie; Exploration radiologique; Dépistage; Mortalité; Simulation ordinateur; Epidémiologie; Suède; Homme FG : Europe; Glande mammaire pathologie; Radiodiagnostic; Santé publique ED : Malignant tumor; Mammary gland; Mammography; Radiologic investigation; Medical screening; Mortality; Computer simulation; Epidemiology; Sweden; Human EG : Europe; Mammary gland diseases; Radiodiagnosis; Public health GD : Elektronenrechnersimulation; Schweden SD : Tumor maligno; Glándula mamaria; Mastografía; Exploración radiológica; Descubrimiento; Mortalidad; Simulación computadora; Epidemiología; Suecia; Hombre LO : INIST-3364.354000058630230040 748/793 NO : FRANCIS 610-96-13358 BDSP FT : Propositions d'objectifs régionaux de dépenses de médecine libérale. AU : BOURNOT (M.C.); LUCAS (V.); TONNELLIER (F.) AF : Centre de Recherche d'Etudes et de Documentation en Economie de la Santé. (C.R.E.D.E.S.). Paris./France DT : Livre; Niveau monographique SO : Propositions d'objectifs régionaux de dépenses de médecine libérale. ; France; Paris: CREDES; Da. 1995-12; Pp. 27 p.; ISBN 2-878-12171-6 LA : Français FA : L'objet de cette étude est l'allocation de ressources dans le domaine de la médecine libérale. Le premier paragraphe présente diverses formules d'allocation de ressources, notamment celle qui a été proposée dans le rapport du Commissariat Général du Plan &dquot;Santé 2010&dquot;. Cette formule est calquée sur la procédure anglaise RAWP : chaque personne doit consommer une somme équivalente qui est fonction de son âge et de ses besoins. Les besoins sont estimés par un indice comparatif de mortalité. La deuxième paragraphe fait l'inventaire des données utilisées pour l'application à la médecine libérale en France. Le troisième paragraphe montre ce que serait la répartition &dquot;optimale&dquot; des dépenses, et la carte qui en résulterait avec divers indicateurs de besoins. Ce calcul est fait pour les généralistes et les spécialistes. Ensuite sont étudiés les rôles distincts joués par la structure par âge et la mortalité. Le quatrième paragraphe propose une modulation &dquot;équitable&dquot; de taux de croissance, avec les mêmes hypothèses que précédemment. La conclusion rappelle les intérêts et les limites de la simulation. CC : 61030A11; 610 FD : Planification; Santé; Dépense; Région; France; Modèle économétrique; Médecine libérale FG : Europe ED : Planning; Health; Expenditure; Region; France; Econometric model EG : Europe GD : Planung; Frankreich SD : Planificación; Salud; Gasto; Región; Francia; Modelo econométrico LO : BDSP/CREDES-09475 749/793 NO : PASCAL 95-0570282 INIST ET : Quantitative interpretation of age-specific mortality reductions from the Swedish breast cancer-screening trials AU : DE KONING (H. J.); BOER (R.); WARMERDAM (P. G.); BEEMSTERBOER (P. M. M.); VAN DER MAAS (P. J.) AF : Erasmus univ. Rotterdam, dep. public health/3000 DR Rotterdam/Pays-Bas DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of the National Cancer Institute; ISSN 0027-8874; Etats-Unis; Da. 1995; Vol. 87; No. 16; Pp. 1217-1223; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background : Results from five Swedish randomized trials may provide the most conclusive evidence on the effect of mammographic screening and have been used to forecast the expected reduction in breast cancer mortality in other programs. However, those trials demonstrated different degrees of reduction. The interpretation of observed mortality reduction after long follow-up for women aged 40-49 years at trial entry is both important and controversial. Purpose: We estimated what percentage of the observed mortality reduction for women aged 40-49 years at entry into the five Swedish screening trials might be attributable to screening these women at 50 years of age or older. Moreover, we calculated the most likely percentage mortality reduction for specific screening programs if the Swedish results were generalized and analyzed whether characteristics of each trial might at least partly explain the observed differences in reductions among the trials. Methods : Each Swedish trial was simulated with one underlying computer simulation model (MISCAN-MIcrosimulation SCreening ANalysis) of the natural history of the disease and the performance of screening, taking into account nine important trial characteristics. Improvement in prognosis for screen-detected case patients was estimated with age-specific reduction for all trials and each trial design as a reference. Results : An expected 7% reduction in breast cancer mortality for women aged 40-49 years at trial entry (relative risk [RR] = 0.93) was determined by computer modeling, assuming no improvement in prognosis for cancers that are screen detected before 50 years of age. This result indicates that, of the overall 10% observed reduction (RR = 0.90) in the five Swedish trials analyzed, most (70%) of this reduction might be attributable to screening these women in later rounds after their 50th birthday. Using additional trial information, predictions of breast cancer mortality reduction in women 50 years or older might be 11% larger than previously expected, assuming that high-quality mammographic screening can be achieved in nationwide programs. For women aged 50-69 years at trial entry, the differences in expected versus observed mortality reduction among the trials are estimated to be relatively small. (Expected mortality reductions range from 24% to 32%.) Conclusions : Results from the Swedish randomized breast cancer-screening trials should be seen as more favorable regarding the effect of mammographic screening in reducing breast cancer mortality for women aged 50-69 years than was estimated earlier. Our analyses also suggest that the improvement in prognosis due to screening for women aged 40-49 years is much smaller than that for women aged 50 years or older. Approximately, 70% of the 10% observed reduction in breast cancer mortality (i.e., 7%) for women aged 40-49 years at trial entry might be attributable to a reduction due to screening these women after they reach age 50. Implications : Detailed screening data for the 40- to 49-year age group of all Swedish trials should be analyzed to specifically estimate the natural history and performance of screening in this age group. CC : 002B20E02 FD : Tumeur maligne; Glande mammaire; Diagnostic; Stade précoce; Mortalité; Réduction; Analyse statistique; Interprétation information; Méthodologie; Suède; Homme; Femelle; Dépistage FG : Europe; Glande mammaire pathologie; Santé publique ED : Malignant tumor; Mammary gland; Diagnosis; Early stage; Mortality; Reduction; Statistical analysis; Information interpretation; Methodology; Sweden; Human; Female; Medical screening EG : Europe; Mammary gland diseases; Public health GD : Statistische Analyse; Schweden SD : Tumor maligno; Glándula mamaria; Diagnóstico; Estadio precoz; Mortalidad; Reducción; Análisis estadístico; Interpretación información; Metodología; Suecia; Hombre; Hembra; Descubrimiento LO : INIST-3364.354000050321570040 750/793 NO : PASCAL 95-0550761 INIST ET : Microsimulation modelling of the corporate firm : exploring micro-macro economic relations AU : VAN TONGEREN (Frank W.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau monographique SO : Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems; ISSN 0075-8442; Allemagne; Da. 1995; Vol. 427; ; Pp. XVI, 275 p.; Bibl. 17 p.; graph., index LA : Anglais CC : 001D00D; 001D01A14 FD : Entreprise; Economie; Modélisation; Prise décision; Investissement; Etude expérimentale; Monographie; Microsimulation ED : Firm; Economy; Modeling; Decision making; Investment; Experimental study; Monograph GD : Unternehmen; Wirtschaft; Investitionen; Experimentelle Untersuchung; Monographie SD : Empresa; Economía; Modelización; Toma decision; Inversión; Estudio experimental; Monografía LO : INIST-12007 B.354000050589880000 751/793 NO : PASCAL 95-0525549 INIST ET : A systems model of the Malaysian macro-economy AU : MASUDUL ALAM CHOUDHURY; RUDALL (B. H.) AF : Univ. coll. Cape Breton/Sydney NS/Canada; Inst. world organisation systems cybernetics Univ. Wales/Bangor/Royaume-Uni (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Kybernetes; ISSN 0368-492X; Coden KBNTA3; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1995; Vol. 24; No. 7; Pp. 75-90; Bibl. 17 ref. LA : Anglais CC : 001D01A14 FD : Modélisation; Modèle macroéconomique; Malaisie; Prix; Endogène; Modèle économétrique; Développement économique; Politique économique; Système économique; Modèle simulation FG : Asie ED : Modeling; Macroeconomic model; Malaysia; Price; Endogenous; Econometric model; Economic development; Economic policy; Economic system; Simulation model EG : Asia SD : Modelización; Modelo macroeconómico; Malasia; Precio; Endógeno; Modelo econométrico; Desarrollo económico; Política económica; Sistema económico; Modelo simulación LO : INIST-15612.354000054612810070 752/793 NO : PASCAL 95-0520853 INIST ET : Identification of multivariate AR-models by threshold accepting AU : WINKER (P.) AF : Univ. Konstanz, Sonderforschungsbereich 178/78434 Konstanz/Allemagne DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Computational statistics & data analysis; ISSN 0167-9473; Pays-Bas; Da. 1995; Vol. 20; No. 3; Pp. 295-307; Bibl. 23 ref. LA : Anglais EA : In econometric modelling the choice of relevant variables is of crucial importance for the interpretation of the results. In many cases it is based on some a priori knowledge from economic theory and a rather heuristic procedure for determining other influential variables sometimes based on an information criterion. This paper deals with an automatic method for the identification of relevant variables based solely on an information criterion. As an example, the identification of multivariate lag structures in AR-models is studied. This issue arises e.g. for large-scale econometric models, for Granger causality tests or the application of Johansen's test for cointegration. The procedure suggested in this paper allows the optimization of the lag structure over the whole set of possible multivariate lag structures with regard to a given information criterion, e.g. the Hannan-Quinn estimator or Akaike's final prediction error criterion. The optimization is performed by the heuristic multiple purpose optimization algorithm Threshold Accepting which proved to be very successful for discrete optimization problems in economics and econometrics. The implementation of Threshold Accepting for subset identification in multivariate AR-models and some simulation results for a bivariate model are presented. CC : 001A02H02I; 001A02H02J; 001A02H02N FD : Modèle régression; Méthode optimisation; Modèle économétrique; Identification; Approche heuristique; Analyse multivariable ED : Regression model; Optimization method; Econometric model; Identification; Heuristic approach; Multivariate analysis SD : Modelo regresión; Método optimización; Modelo econométrico; Identificación; Enfoque heurístico; Análisis multivariable LO : INIST-20214.354000054611820050 753/793 NO : PASCAL 95-0506120 INIST ET : Regulation by simulation: the role of production cost models in electricity planning and pricing AU : KAHN (E.) AF : Univ. California/Berkeley CA/Etats-Unis DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Operations research; ISSN 0030-364X; Coden OPREAI; Etats-Unis; Da. 1995; Vol. 43; No. 3; Pp. 388-398; Bibl. 46 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper is a case study on the role of complex computer simulation models in the regulation of the electricity industry. The analysis focuses on electricity production cost simulation models as they are used to set prices for certain nonutility generators in California. This represents an early part of the trend toward &dquot;markets&dquot; for electric power, and away from pure monopoly supply. The introduction of even limited competition creates conditions both favoring and hindering the reliability of cost estimates, and demonstrates the sensitivity of results to problem specification and model implementation. Attention is focused on the representation of power system operational constraints, particularly the unit commitment problem, in the modeling process and their effect on the prices which result. Examples from the litigation history illustrate the problem of managing the strategic use and abuse of modeling techniques for competitive advantage. Highly structured procedures for using models in such situations offer some constraints on manipulation by competing parties. Otherwise, experts are apt to overwhelm regulators. CC : 001D06A01C4; 230 FD : Industrie électrique; Capacité production; Planification; Fixation prix; Coût production; Secteur privé; Modèle économétrique; Simulation numérique; Régulation; Marché; Californie FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Electric industry; Production capacity; Planning; Pricing; Production cost; Private sector; Econometric model; Numerical simulation; Regulation(control); Markets; California EG : United States; North America; America GD : Herstellkosten; Regelung SD : Capacidad producción; Coste producción; Sector privado; Modelo econométrico; Simulación numérica; Regulación; Mercado; California LO : INIST-7150.354000051451400020 754/793 NO : PASCAL 95-0284194 INIST ET : (Economic systems analysis for the transport industry - the construction of transport routes of cause and effect of the charges in residential and production structures) GT : Ökonomische Systemanalyse für das Verkehrswesen : Verkehrswegebau als Ursache und als Wirkung der Wandlungen von Besiedlungs- und Produktionsstrukturen AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Internationales Verkehrswesen; ISSN 0020-9511; Coden INVEDT; Allemagne; Da. 1995; Vol. 47; No. 4; Pp. 200-202; Abs. anglais/français LA : Allemand FA : Cette étude est un modèle économétrique valable pour l'économie nationale qui tente d'illustrer les conséquences des mesures prises par la politique des transport, en partant non seulement de l'importance du trafic et des rapports écologiques, mais également des liens de cause à effet pour l'économie nationale. Elle se consacre aux augmentations et aux diminutions des impôts tout comme aux augmentations de prix et investissements dans les voies routières et ferroviaires. La simulation des effets est également examinée sous l'aspect de la structure productive de l'économie nationale, du développement du produit social et de la situation nationale de l'emploi. Elle se base sur un prognostic ex post pour une période située entre les années 1981 jusqu'à 1990. Elle procède également à une quantification des frais externes et de l'utilité du trafic en général, à l'occasion de quoi l'utilité externe assume une importance prépondérante CC : 001D15B FD : Analyse économique; Politique transport; Simulation; Modèle économétrique; Infrastructure transport; Développement économique; Pronostic ED : Economic analysis; Transportation policy; Simulation; Econometric model; Transportation infrastructure; Economic development; Prognosis GD : Simulation SD : Análisis económico; Política transporte; Simulación; Modelo econométrico; Infraestructura transporte; Desarrollo económico; Pronóstico LO : INIST-8891.354000056250830060 755/793 NO : PASCAL 95-0227996 INIST ET : Structural adjustement and agriculture : African and Asian experiences AU : SUBRAMANIAN (S.); SADOULET (E.); DE JANVRY (A.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau monographique SO : FAO economic and social development paper; ISSN 0259-2460; Italie; Da. 1994; Vol. 124; ; Pp. IX, 150 p.; Bibl. 4 p.; graph. LA : Anglais EA : The early emphasis of structural adjustment programmes on wholesale reductions in government expenditure has been questioned by the realization that cut-backs in public spending can sverely negate any positive impetus from price liberalization. This is of particular relevance for agriculture which is greatly dependent on the supply of public goods. The focus of this study is the contrast between adjustment and the role of the sate in the poor African and Asian countries. Multisectorial models capture the contrasted structural features of archetypical African and Asian economies. The simulations of cut-backs in current and capital expenditures and their effects on public goods, such as infrastructure and sectorial productivity growth, suggest that the impact of these changes is stronger in Africa than in Asia. It is also shown that restrictive credit policies will have a stronger negative effect on private investment and growth in Africa, where the financial system is less developed. Finally, the impact of adjustment on the incomes of the powerful classes suggests that achieving political sustainability for the reforms is more difficult in Africa than in Asia. The results are used to tailor policy packages to the African and Asian context CC : 002A32A04 FD : Agriculture; Aide état; Crédit; Dépense; Développement durable; Développement économique; Libéralisation; Modèle économétrique; Modification structure; Politique économique; Prix; Simulation numérique; Structure économique; Afrique; Asie; Pays en développement; Durabilité système; Intervention de l'Etat; Politique des structures FG : Economie agricole; Economie nationale; Macroéconomie; Socioéconomie ED : Agriculture; Government aid; Credit; Expenditure; Sustainable development; Economic development; Liberalisation; Econometric model; Structure modification; Economic policy; Price; Numerical simulation; Economic structure; Africa; Asia; Developing countries; Sustainability; State intervention; Structural policies EG : Agricultural economics; National economy; Macroeconomics; Socioeconomics GD : Landwirtschaft; Subvention; Afrika; Asien; Entwicklungsland SD : Agricultura; Ayuda estatal; Crédito; Gasto; Desarrollo durable; Desarrollo económico; Modelo econométrico; Modificación estructural; Política económica; Precio; Simulación numérica; Estructura económica; Africa; Asia; Países en desarrollo; Sostenibilidad; Intervención estatal; Politica de estructuras LO : INIST-22586.354000058201630000 756/793 NO : PASCAL 95-0103703 INIST FT : Rapport d'activité 1993. tome 2: industrie, technologies et produits propres ET : (1993 activity report. 2: industry, technology and clean products) AF : CNRS. Programme ECOTECH/Meudon/France DT : Rapport; Niveau monographique SO : Rapport d'activité 1993. tome 2: industrie, technologies et produits propres; France; Da. 1994; ECOTECH-RA/93-2; Pp. [580 p.] LA : Français FA : Ce rapport comprend: (1) Economie et innovation (études de l'aval industriel des recherches en environnement: evaluation des perspectives de développement du logiciel &dquot;zoom&dquot; dans l'industrie; déterminants de la pénétration du progrès technique: prix de l'énergie et substitutions techniques). (2) Procédés propres et sobres (échangeurs thermiques; nouveaux adsorbants pour PAC et machines à froid, nouveaux procédés solide-gaz; traitement industriel des fluides non newtoniens; génie des systèmes de séchage; séchage des milieux fortement déformables; modélisation du broyage; suspensions colloïdales concentrées; polymérisation sous micro-ondes; nouveaux procédés propres: nouvelles synthèses, génie des procédés; optimisation énergétique des procédés; catalyse en chimie fine; biolixiviation de sulfures métalliques; procédés propres en cokéfaction et carbonisation; métallogénie des métaux de haute technologie; techniques d'exploitation du pétrole). (3) Ecoproduits et recyclages (régénération des catalyseurs métalliques supportés; qualité du métal liquide en liaison avec son élaboration; matériaux carbones adsorbants). (4) Traitement des déchets et effluents (dégradation de composés polluants par des microorganismes; dépollution par plasma hors équilibre; procédés plasma thermiques appliqués au traitement des rejets et au recyclage; devenir des métaux lourds dans les incinérateurs, étude thermodynamique) CC : 430A13H; 430A03I; 001D07B FD : Technologie propre; Etude technicoéconomique; Simulation numérique; Logiciel; Application industrielle; Coût énergie; Réglementation; Modèle économétrique; Echangeur chaleur; Adsorption gaz solide; Adsorbant; Réaction chimique; Transformateur chaleur; Fluide non newtonien; Propriété rhéologique; Industrie alimentaire; Séchage; Broyage; Modélisation; Granulométrie; Dimension particule; Suspension colloïdale; Suspension concentrée; Matériau composite; Polymérisation; Hyperfréquence; Synthèse chimique; Optimisation; Conception; Analyse énergétique; Analyse exergétique; Réaction catalytique; Lixiviation bactérienne; Sulfure; Cokéfaction; Carbonisation; Industrie pétrochimique; Recyclage; Régénération catalyseur; Catalyseur sur support; Métal transition; Métal liquide; Contrôle qualité; Traitement déchet; Epuration eau usée; Epuration effluent gazeux; Plasma; Protection environnement ED : Wasteless technology; Technicoeconomic study; Numerical simulation; Software; Industrial application; Energy cost; Regulation; Econometric model; Heat exchanger; Gas solid adsorption; Adsorbent; Chemical reaction; Heat transformer; Non Newtonian fluid; Rheological properties; Food industry; Drying; Grinding(comminution); Modeling; Grain size analysis; Particle size; Colloidal suspension; Concentrated suspension; Composite material; Polymerization; Microwave; Chemical synthesis; Optimization; Design; Energy analysis GD : Software; Energiekosten; Vorschrift; Waermeaustauscher; Chemische Reaktion; Rheologische Eigenschaft; Lebensmittelindustrie; Trocknen; Mahlen; Teilchengroessenbestimmung; Teilchengroesse; Kolloidale Suspension; Verbundwerkstoff; Mikrowelle; Chemische Synthese; Optimierung; Gestaltung SD : Tecnología limpia; Estudio técnicoeconómico; Simulación numérica; Logicial; Aplicación industrial; Coste energía; Reglamentación; Modelo econométrico; Intercambiador calor; Adsorción gas sólido; Adsorbente; Reacción química; Transformador calor; Fluido no-newtoniano; Propiedad rheológica; Industria alimenticia; Secado; Molienda; Modelización; Granulometría; Dimensión partícula; Suspensión coloidal; Suspensión concentrada; Material compuesto; Polimerización; Hiperfrecuencia; Síntesis química; Optimización; Diseño; Análisis energético LO : INIST-RP 440 (396).354000039763630000 757/793 NO : PASCAL 95-0060756 INIST ET : Nonlinear dynamic simulation of optimal depletion of crude oil in the lower 48 United States AU : RUTH (M.); CLEVELAND (C. J.) AF : Boston univ., dep. geography, cent. energy environmental studies/Boston MA 02215/Etats-Unis DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Computers, environment and urban systems; ISSN 0198-9715; Coden CEUSD5; Etats-Unis; Da. 1993; Vol. 17; No. 5; Pp. 425-435; Bibl. 25 ref. LA : Anglais CC : 001D02B08; 001D06B02B1; 230 FD : Pétrole brut; Déplétion; Simulation ordinateur; Etats Unis; Modélisation; Modèle économétrique; Optimisation; Modèle non linéaire; Modèle dynamique; Théorie économique; Système dynamique; Econométrie; Infographie; Langage programmation; Optimal resource; Crude oil; USA FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Crude oil; Depletion; Computer simulation; United States; Modeling; Econometric model; Optimization; Non linear model; Dynamic model; Economic theory; Dynamical system; Econometrics; Computer graphics; Programming language EG : North America; America GD : Elektronenrechnersimulation; Vereinigte Staaten; Optimierung SD : Petróleo bruto; Depleción; Simulación computadora; Estados Unidos; Modelización; Modelo econométrico; Optimización; Modelo no lineal; Modelo dinámico; Teoría económica; Sistema dinámico; Econometría; Gráfico computadora; Lenguaje programación LO : INIST-20192.354000023894770040 758/793 NO : FRANCIS 731-95-11152 INIST ET : Regulation by simulation: the role of production cost models in electricity planning and pricing AU : KAHN (E.) AF : Univ. California/Berkeley CA/Etats-Unis DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Operations research; ISSN 0030-364X; Coden OPREAI; Etats-Unis; Da. 1995; Vol. 43; No. 3; Pp. 388-398; Bibl. 46 ref. LA : Anglais EA : This paper is a case study on the role of complex computer simulation models in the regulation of the electricity industry. The analysis focuses on electricity production cost simulation models as they are used to set prices for certain nonutility generators in California. This represents an early part of the trend toward &dquot;markets&dquot; for electric power, and away from pure monopoly supply. The introduction of even limited competition creates conditions both favoring and hindering the reliability of cost estimates, and demonstrates the sensitivity of results to problem specification and model implementation. Attention is focused on the representation of power system operational constraints, particularly the unit commitment problem, in the modeling process and their effect on the prices which result. Examples from the litigation history illustrate the problem of managing the strategic use and abuse of modeling techniques for competitive advantage. Highly structured procedures for using models in such situations offer some constraints on manipulation by competing parties. Otherwise, experts are apt to overwhelm regulators. CC : 73142; 230; 731 FD : Industrie électrique; Capacité production; Planification; Fixation prix; Coût production; Secteur privé; Modèle économétrique; Simulation numérique; Régulation; Marché; Californie FG : Etats Unis; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Electric industry; Production capacity; Planning; Pricing; Production cost; Private sector; Econometric model; Numerical simulation; Regulation(control); Markets; California EG : United States; North America; America GD : Herstellkosten; Regelung SD : Capacidad producción; Coste producción; Sector privado; Modelo econométrico; Simulación numérica; Regulación; Mercado; California LO : INIST-7150.354000051451400020 759/793 NO : FRANCIS 531-95-11802 PRODIG-INTERGEO ET : An econometric model of socio-spatial development of tourist regions. The case of the Swiss canton of Valais AU : BAILLY (A.S.); PAELINCK (J.H.P.); WILLIAMS (A.M.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Tijdschrift voor economische en sociale geografie; ISSN 0040-747X; Pays-Bas; Da. 1995; Vol. 86; No. 1; Pp. 72-79; Abs. anglais; 3 fig., 3 tabl. LA : Anglais FA : Modélisation utilisant les techniques de la géographie du comportement et l'analyse psychologique. Système généralisé de Volterra-Lotka CC : 531151; 531 FD : Modèle économétrique; Région touristique; Tourisme; Culturel; Décentralisation; Simulation; Comportement; Suisse; Valais ED : Econometric model; Tourist region; Tourism; Cultural studies; Decentralization; Simulation; Behaviour; Switzerland; Valais LO : INTG-18557 760/793 NO : FRANCIS 531-95-10071 PRODIG-INTERGEO ET : An econometric model of Merseyside: validation and policy simulations AU : MINFORD (P.); STONEY (P.); RILEY (J.); WEBB (B.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Regional studies; ISSN 0034-3404; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1994; Vol. 28; No. 6; Pp. 563-575; Abs. anglais/français/allemand; Bibl. 10 ref.; 6 fig., 1 tabl. LA : Anglais FA : Modèle économétrique du type Hecksher-Ohlin, sur des données annuelles de la période 1977-91, appliqué au secteur marchand. Il présente une courbe d'offre ascendante pour le travail manuel (salaire de base fixé en fonction des allocations chômage. Les autres prix des facteurs étant fixés de manière exogène, l'offre de travail manuel détermine l'importance de la production régionale. Ajustement acceptable. Simulations de 1992 à 2004: elles montrent les avantages de politiques visant la réduction des coûts locaux CC : 531132; 531 FD : Modèle économétrique; Travail; Politique de l'emploi; Economie régionale; Formation des prix; Salaire; Marché du travail; Simulation; Royaume-Uni; England; Merseyside ED : Econometric model; Labour; Employment policy; Regional economy; Price fixing; Wage; Labour market; Simulation; United Kingdom; England; Merseyside LO : INTG-18471 761/793 NO : FRANCIS 521-95-11480 INIST FT : Partage du travail: les pièges d'une idée simple : La France et son chômage ET : (Sharing of labour: Dangers of a simple concept) AU : BOISARD (P.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Esprit : (1940); ISSN 0014-0759; France; Da. 1994; No. 204; Pp. 44-51 LA : Français FA : L'une des récentes solutions proposées pour lutter contre le chômage est celle du partage du travail qui tire sa force de conviction de l'évidence de son mécanisme et de la générosité de son principe. Or, pour l'A., l'idée d'une quantité de travail préexistant à sa répartition est une abstraction : il n'y a pas une masse de travail homogène, mais une somme d'emplois hétérogènes qui s'agrègent localement dans des établissements CC : 52150; 421 FD : France; Chômage; Politique de l'emploi; Division du travail; Répartition; Population active; Théorie; Simulation; Modèle économétrique; Temps de travail; Réalité; Controverse ED : France; Unemployment; Employment Policy; Division of Labor; Distribution; Working Population; Theory; Simulation; Econometric Model; Working time; Reality LO : INIST-24410.354000040290300020 762/793 NO : PASCAL 94-0387567 BDSP FT : Propositions pour la construction d'une branche matériel médical AU : AURAY (J.P.); DURU (G.); TURBAT (V.) AF : DT : Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Structures économiques et économétrie/1984-05-24/FRA; Inconnu; Da. 1984-05-24/1984-05-25; Pp. 420-435; ISBN 2-903-44911-2 LA : Français FA : L'objectif des auteurs consiste à faire apparaître une branche santé et une branche matériel médical au sein du Tableau Entrées- Sorties (T.E.S.) en 90 branches du Système Elargi de Comptabilité Nationale (S.E.C.N.) ; ceci permettrait d'analyser les effets d'entraînement de l'activité de santé sur la totalité de la structure productive. Pour cela, les auteurs proposent une technique de désagrégation de ce T.E.S., puis une simulation visant à séparer des autres produits le matériel médical d'une part et les produits de santé d'autre part CC : 002B30A11 FD : Modèle économétrique; Econométrie; Comptabilité nationale; Secteur économique; Equipement biomédical; Méthode; France; Compte satellite santé FG : Europe ED : Econometric model; Econometrics; National accounts; Economic sector; Biomedical equipment; Method; France EG : Europe GD : Frankreich SD : Modelo econométrico; Econometría; Contabilidad nacional; Sector económico; Equipo biomédico; Método; Francia LO : BDSP/CREDES-RAM750800449 763/793 NO : PASCAL 94-0116362 INIST ET : Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances AU : BOLLERSLEV (T.); WOOLDRIDGE (J. M.) AF : Northwestern univ., J. L. Kellogg graduate school management, dep. finance/Etats-Unis DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Econometric reviews; ISSN 0747-4938; Etats-Unis; Da. 1992; Vol. 11; No. 2; Pp. 143-172; Bibl. 3 p. LA : Anglais CC : 001A02H02G FD : Estimateur convergent; Maximum vraisemblance; Robustesse test; Normalité asymptotique; Simulation statistique; Modèle dynamique; Multiplicateur Lagrange; Volatilité; Modèle économétrique; Modèle GARCH; Quasi vraisemblance ED : Consistent estimator; Maximum likelihood; Test robustness; Asymptotic normality; Statistical simulation; Dynamic model; Lagrange multiplier; Volatility; Econometric model; Quasi likelihood SD : Estimador convergente; Maxima verosimilitud; Robustez prueba; Normalidad asintótica; Simulación estadística; Modelo dinámico; Multiplicador Lagrange; Volatibilidad; Modelo econométrico LO : INIST-16531 C.354000030217230020 764/793 NO : PASCAL 93-0528872 INIST ET : Cost-effectiveness of screening and cryotherapy for threshold retinopathy of prematurity AU : JAVITT (J.); DEI CAS (R.); YEN-PIN CHIANG AF : Georgetown univ. medical cent., cent. sight/Washington DC/Etats-Unis DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Pediatrics : (Evanston); ISSN 0031-4005; Coden PEDIAU; Etats-Unis; Da. 1993; Vol. 91; No. 5; Pp. 859-866; Bibl. 33 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Background. Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is the leading cause of blindness among premature infants. A recent National Eye Institute-sponsored prospective, multicenter trial investigating the use of cryotherapy for treatment of ROP demonstrates a significant reduction in blindness and low vision for patients with sight-threatening (stage 3+) ROP. Method. A microsimulation model is presented to determine the cost-effectiveness of cryotherapy for ROP. Simulations are performed for three subpopulations of premature infants with birth weights 500 through 749 g, 750 through 999 g, and 1000 through 1249 g, and for three screening strategies-weekly, biweekly, and monthly CC : 002B27B11 FD : Rétinopathie; Prématurité; Nouveau né; Prématuré; Cécité; Prévention; Cryothérapie; Dépistage; Traitement; Modèle PROPHET; Facteur risque; Coût; Qualité vie FG : Homme; Oeil pathologie; Nouveau né pathologie; Etude multicentrique; Etude statistique; Aspect économique ED : Retinopathy; Prematurity; Newborn; Premature; Blindness; Prevention; Cryotherapy; Medical screening; Treatment; Risk factor; Costs; Quality of life EG : Human; Eye disease; Newborn diseases; Multicenter study; Statistical study; Economic aspect GD : Aufbereiten; Kosten SD : Retinopatía; Prematuridad; Recién nacido; Prematuro; Ceguera; Prevención; Crioterapia; Descubrimiento; Tratamiento; Factor riesgo; Costo; Calidad vida LO : INIST-6967.354000037621850010 765/793 NO : PASCAL 93-0491355 INIST ET : «FIDME-PC»: forestry investment decisions made easy on personal computers AU : PAYANDEH (B.); BASHAM (D.) AF : Great lakes forestry cent., res. sci. computer systems analyst/Sault Ste. Marie ON P6A 5M7/Canada DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : International journal of modelling & simulation; Coden IMSIEK; Etats-Unis; Da. 1993; Vol. 13; No. 2; Pp. 72-76; Bibl. 2 ref. LA : Anglais CC : 002A33C01; 280 FD : Modèle simulation; Simulation ordinateur; Aide décision; Gestion forestière; Investissement; Modèle économétrique; Microordinateur FG : Gestion automatisée; Economie forestière; Foresterie ED : Simulation model; Computer simulation; Decision aid; Forest management; Investment; Econometric model; Microcomputer EG : Assisted management; Forest economics; Forestry GD : Elektronenrechnersimulation; Investitionen; Kleinstrechner SD : Modelo simulación; Simulación computadora; Ayuda decisión; Administración forestal; Inversión; Modelo econométrico; Microordenador LO : INIST-19697.354000037777040050 766/793 NO : PASCAL 93-0325556 INIST ET : The effects of market power on the stocks and prices of world coffee AU : SENGUPTA (J. K.); WANG (E. C.) AF : Univ. California, dep. economics/Santa Barbara CA 93106/Etats-Unis (1 aut.) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : International journal of systems science; ISSN 0020-7721; Coden IJSYA9; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1993; Vol. 24; No. 3; Pp. 515-528; Bibl. 19 ref. LA : Anglais EA : The objective of this study is to explore the consequences of market power for optimal stockholding and price variations in the world coffee economy. Optimal storage decision rules which incorporate risk aversion under several market scenarios are considered. These generate a set of price and quantity series that can be compared with the historical data and to test the hypothesis proposed by Newbery that a monopolistic producer tends to undertake more storage than a competitive producer and hence price stability may increase in proportion to the dominant role played by the monopolist. Our study reveals that the world coffee market has been rather close to the competitive regime since the 1960s CC : 001D01A10 FD : Café; Economie marché; Modèle économétrique; Etude marché; Marché financier; Production; Consommation; Moyenne mobile; Gestion stock; Politique optimale; Aversion risque; Simulation; Marché monopolistique; Stockholding; Price variation; Quasi competition; Duopole ED : Coffee; Market economy; Econometric model; Market survey; Financial market; Production; Consumption; Moving average; Inventory control; Optimal policy; Risk aversion; Simulation; Monopolistic market; Duopoly GD : Produktion; Verbrauch; Simulation SD : Café; Economía mercado; Modelo econométrico; Estudio mercado; Mercado financiero; Producción; Consumo; Promedio móvil; Administración depósito; Política óptima; Aversión riesgo; Simulación; Mercado monopolístico LO : INIST-15193.354000036811610060 767/793 NO : PASCAL 93-0211726 INIST ET : Nonlinear simulation analysis in continuous time econometric models AU : PADOAN (P. C.) AF : Univ. Rome, fac. economics/00161 Rome/Italie DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Computers & mathematics with applications : (1987); ISSN 0898-1221; Coden CMAPDK; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1992; Vol. 24; No. 8-9; Pp. 57-65; Bibl. 8 ref. LA : Anglais CC : 001D01A10 FD : Finance; Modèle économétrique; Système continu; Capital; Italie; Simulation; Non linéarité; Liberalization; Capital movement FG : Europe ED : Finance; Econometric model; Continuous system; Capital; Italy; Simulation; Nonlinearity EG : Europe GD : Italien; Simulation SD : Finanza; Modelo econométrico; Sistema contínuo; Capital; Italia; Simulación; No linealidad LO : INIST-16411.354000030070780050 768/793 NO : PASCAL 93-0211722 INIST ET : Systems of seemingly unrelated regression equations with time varying coefficients―an interplay of Kalman filtering, scoring, EM- and MINQUE-method AU : SCHNEIDER (W.) AF : Univ. Kiel, fac. social sci., inst. statistics econometrics/Kiel/Allemagne DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Computers & mathematics with applications : (1987); ISSN 0898-1221; Coden CMAPDK; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1992; Vol. 24; No. 8-9; Pp. 1-16; Bibl. 41 ref. LA : Anglais CC : 001D02D05 FD : Modèle économétrique; Equation régression; Système paramètre variable; Estimation paramètre; Maximum vraisemblance; Filtrage Kalman; Algorithme EM; Lissage; Estimation adaptative; Simulation; Scoring; Minque theory ED : Econometric model; Regression equation; Time- varying system; Parameter estimation; Maximum likelihood; Kalman filtering; EM algorithm; Smoothing; Adaptive estimation; Simulation GD : Simulation SD : Modelo econométrico; Ecuación regresión; Sistema parámetro variable; Estimación parámetro; Maxima verosimilitud; Filtrado Kalman; Algoritmo EM; Alisamiento; Estimación adaptativa; Simulación LO : INIST-16411.354000030070780010 769/793 NO : FRANCIS 531-93-01663 INIST ET : An evaluation of the REMI model for the South Coast Air Quality Management District AU : CASSING (S.); GIARRATANI (F.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Environment and planning A; ISSN 0308-518X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1992; Vol. 24; No. 11; Pp. 1549-1564; Abs. ENG; Bibl. 9 réf.; 1 fig., 7 tabl. LA : Anglais FA : Présentation d'un modèle économétrique multirégional, et examen de ses performances, notamment en matière de prévision et d'évaluation des impacts économiques. La structure du modèle permet une bonne simulation des conséquences de diverses politiques économiques. Prévision de la structure détaillée de l'emploi dans la région de Los Angeles, année 1995 CC : 531132 FD : Modèle économétrique; Modèle multirégional; Modèle; Economie régionale; Ajustement; Emploi; Structure de l'emploi; Branche industrielle; Prévision; Production; Simulation; Etats-Unis; California; Los Angeles ED : Econometric model; Multiregional model; Model; Regional economy; Fitting; Employment; Employment structure; Industrial branch; Forecast;Prediction; Production; Simulation; United States; California; Los Angeles LO : INIST 770/793 NO : FRANCIS 531-93-00942 INIST ET : Imperfect competition in regional labour markets : a computable general equilibrium analysis AU : HARRIGAN (F.); MACGREGOR (P. G.); SWALES (J. K.); DOURMASHKIN (N.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Environment and planning A; ISSN 0308-518X; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1992; Vol. 24; No. 10; Pp. 1463-1481; Abs. ENG; Bibl. 28 réf.; 3 fig., 3 tabl. LA : Anglais FA : Les AA. examinent les effets induits de nature systémique d'une concurrence imparfaite sur le marché du travail écossais, à l'aide d'un modèle de simulation macro et micro-économique. Différents types de fermeture du marché sont considérés. L'accent est mis sur les salaires nominaux et réels. Sensibilité des résultats aux hypothèses sur le degré d'ouverture de l'économie et sur la flexibilité des techniques de production CC : 531133 FD : Marché du travail; Economie régionale; Facteur de production; Concurrence; Salaire; Formation des prix; Marché; Modèle économétrique; Equilibre économique; Royaume-Uni; Scotland ED : Labour market; Regional economy; Factor of production; Competition; Wage;Salary; Price fixing; Market; Econometric model; Economic equilibrium; United Kingdom; Scotland LO : INIST 771/793 NO : PASCAL 92-0606568 INIST ET : Using spreadsheet simulation to generate a distribution of forecasts for electric power demand AU : MUMFORD (L. G.); SCHULTZ (D. E.); TROUTT (M. D.) AF : Big Rivers Electric Corp., eng. dep./Henderson KY/Etats-Unis DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : (The) Journal of the Operational Research Society; ISSN 0160-5682; Coden JORSDZ; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1991; Vol. 42; No. 11; Pp. 931-939; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Anglais CC : 001D05I01H FD : Réseau électrique; Prévision demande; Distribution charge; Gestion énergie; Planification; Modèle économétrique; Simulation; Tableur; Ordinateur personnel; Progiciel ED : Electrical network; Demand forecasting; Load distribution; Energy management; Planning; Econometric model; Simulation; Spreadsheet; Personal computer; Software package GD : Planung; Simulation SD : Red eléctrica; Previsión demanda; Distribución carga; Gestión energía; Planificación; Modelo econométrico; Simulación; Spreadsheet; Computadora personal LO : INIST-5733.354000011393860010 772/793 NO : PASCAL 92-0593264 INIST ET : On simulation and optimization of macroeconometric models AU : ENGELS (J. R.) AF : Fac. univ., dep. mathematics/5000 Namur/Belgique DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : European journal of operational research; ISSN 0377-2217; Coden EJORDT; Pays-Bas; Da. 1992; Vol. 61; No. 3; Pp. 357-369; Bibl. 36 ref. LA : Anglais CC : 001D01A02 FD : Modèle économétrique; Modèle macroéconométrique; Optimisation; Optimisation sans contrainte; Simulation; Méthode quasi Newton; Méthode gradient réduit; Bound constraint; Matrice hessienne ED : Econometric model; Macroeconometric model; Optimization; Unconstrained optimization; Simulation; Quasi Newton method; Reduced gradient method; Hessian matrix GD : Optimierung; Simulation SD : Modelo econométrico; Modelo macroeconométrico; Optimización; Optimización sin restricción; Simulación; Método cuasi Newton; Método gradiente reducido LO : INIST-17566.354000030266150090 773/793 NO : PASCAL 92-0553637 INIST ET : Estimation of a model of entry in the airline industry AU : BERRY (S. T.) AF : Yale univ., dep. economics/New Haven CT 06520-1972/Etats-Unis DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Econometrica; ISSN 0012-9682; Coden ECMTA7; Etats-Unis; Da. 1992; Vol. 60; No. 4; Pp. 889-917; Bibl. 19 ref. LA : Anglais CC : 001D01A14 FD : Gestion entreprise; Transport aérien; Oligopole; Rentabilité; Modèle économétrique; Simulation statistique; Maximum vraisemblance ED : Firm management; Air transportation; Oligopoly; Profitability; Econometric model; Statistical simulation; Maximum likelihood GD : Betriebswirtschaft; Lufttransport SD : Administración empresa; Transporte aéreo; Oligopolio; Rentabilidad; Modelo econométrico; Simulación estadistica; Maxima verosimilitud LO : INIST-2069.354000020104950070 774/793 NO : PASCAL 92-0074625 INIST ET : Effectiveness of antithetic sampling and stratified sampling in Monte Carlo chronological production cost modeling AU : MARNAY (C.); STRAUSS (T.) AF : Lawrence Berkeley lab., utility planning policy/Berkeley CA/Etats-Unis DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : IEEE transactions on power systems; ISSN 0885-8950; Coden ITPSEG; Etats-Unis; Da. 1991; Vol. 6; No. 2; Pp. 669-675; Bibl. 21 ref. LA : Anglais EA : Sampling error detracts from the usefulness of estimates of mean hourly marginal cost produced by Monte Carlo chronological production cost models. Variance reduction techniques commonly used in other Monte Carlo simulation applications can significantly improve the precision of estimates. Two such techniques, antithetic sampling and stratified sampling, are tested for a fictitious system. The number of iterations needed to reach a precision target falls significantly. The estimated savings in total computing time could exceed 50 percent for a full one-year forecast. Both techniques are easily implemented and should be used in Monte Carlo production costing efforts to estimate hourly marginal cost CC : 001D05I01H FD : Réseau électrique; Modèle économétrique; Coût énergie; Production énergie; Coût marginal; Estimation; Méthode Monte Carlo; Echantillonnage; Planification ED : Electrical network; Econometric model; Energy cost; Power production; Marginal cost; Estimation; Monte Carlo method; Sampling; Planning GD : Energiekosten; Bewerten; Monte Carlo Methode; Probenahme; Planung SD : Red eléctrica; Modelo econométrico; Coste energía; Producción energía; Coste marginal; Estimación; Método Monte Carlo; Muestreo; Planificación LO : INIST-21015 A.354000022265210290 775/793 NO : FRANCIS 617-92-00487 ECODOC FT : (Structure économique et erreurs dans les modèles multirégionaux d'entrée-sortie: commentaire) ET : Economic structure and errors in multiregional input-output models: a comment AU : MILLER (R.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Ricerche Economiche; ISSN 0035-5054; Italie; Da. 1990/10-12; No. 4; Pp. 475-492 LA : Anglais FA : L'analyse concerne le cadre d'étude proposé par VALI dans l'examen des erreurs générées par le modèle régional d'entrée-sortie, ainsi que ses résultats CC : 6170 FD : théorie économique; modèle économétrique; modèle de simulation; économie régionale LO : SC. ECO./GRENOBLE 776/793 NO : PASCAL 91-0112344 INIST ET : A dynamic model of timber markets AU : BRAZEE (R.); MENDELSOHN (R.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Forest science; ISSN 0015-749X; Coden FOSCAD; Etats-Unis; Da. 1990; Vol. 36; No. 2; Pp. 255-264; Bibl. 18 ref. LA : Anglais FA : Un modèle théorique de la dynamique du marché des bois, fonction de la demande, de la croissance de la forêt et du loyer foncier, est développé. Un processus d'ajustement dans le temps à la suite de changements imprévus de la demande est analysé. Ce processus d'ajustement, prenant en compte les conséquences à court et long terme des changements de conditions économiques, est caractérisé par une variation brusque du prix initial, suivi d'une période relative longue d'évolution des prix, de l'âge de récolte et des taux de récolte. Cette adaptation à l'évolution de la demande permet un retour à un état d'équilibre, caractérisé par une forêt pleinement contrôlée, gérée selon les rotations de Faustmann. Une simulation est effectuée avec une forêt hypothétique de Pinus taeda CC : 002A33A01; 280 FD : Bois; Marché économique; Modèle dynamique; Approvisionnement; Equilibre marché; Rotation; Modèle mathématique; Modèle économétrique; Etude économique; Filière bois; Modèle Faustmann ED : Wood; Economic market; Dynamic model; Supply; Market equilibrium; Rotation; Mathematical model; Econometric model; Economic study; Wood line SD : Madera; Mercado económico; Modelo dinámico; Aprovisionamiento; Equilibrio mercado; Rotación; Modelo matemático; Modelo econométrico; Estudio económico LO : INIST-8566 777/793 NO : PASCAL 91-0097136 INIST ET : Spatially analysing the impact of a &dquot;no new nukes&dquot; policy on European natural gas markets AU : DAHL (C.) AF : Louisiana state univ., dep. economics/Baton Rouge LA/Etats-Unis (A11011000) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy economics; ISSN 0140-9883; Coden EECODR; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1989; Vol. 11; No. 4; Pp. 262-274; Bibl. 23 ref. LA : Anglais FA : Développement de modèles économétriques pour prévoir l'état des marchés pétroliers et gaziers en Europe en l'an 2000, en présence ou non d'un moratoire sur l'énergie nucléaire qui consisterait en une absence totale de construction de centrale nucléaire après 1990. Les centrales nucléaires qui auraient dues être construites seraient alors remplacées par installations de production d'énergie électrique fonctionnant au gaz naturel CC : 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Economie pétrolière; Economie gazière; Marché; Prévision; Energie nucléaire; Europe Ouest; Modèle économétrique; Simulation numérique; An 2000; Moratoire FG : Europe ED : Oil economy; Gas economy; Markets; Forecasting; Nuclear energy; Western Europe; Econometric model; Digital simulation; Moratorium EG : Europe SD : Economía petrolera; Economía gas; Mercado; Previsión; Energía nuclear; Europa del Oeste; Modelo econométrico; Simulación numérica LO : IFP-BSEEG 778/793 NO : PASCAL 91-0058171 INIST ET : The economic effects of a natural resource discovery: a theoretical and simulation exercise AU : HARVIE (C.) AF : Univ. Wollongong, dep. economics/Wollongong N.S.W. 2500/Australie (A11011000) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : International journal of energy research; ISSN 0363-907X; Coden IJERDN; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1989; Vol. 13; No. 6; Pp. 701-716; Bibl. 10 ref. LA : Anglais FA : Etude comparative des modèles de type Dornbusch, développés par Buiter-Miller, Eastwood-Venables et Neary-Van Wijnberger lors de l'étude des conséquences macro-économiques à court et à long terme, de la découverte d'une ressource énergétique. Simulation des processus d'ajustement dynamique mis en jeu lors de la découverte d'un champ de pétrole, à l'aide des modèles Eastwood-Venables et Neary-Van Wijnberger CC : 001D06A01A; 230 FD : Economie énergie; Découverte; Ressource énergétique; Champ pétrole; Ajustement; Marché; Long terme; Court terme; Analyse macroéconomique; Modèle économétrique; Etude comparative; Modèle Dornbusch; Modèle Eastwood-Venables; Modèle Neary Van Wijnbergen; Buiter Miller ED : Energy economy; Discoveries; Energy resources; Oil field; Fitting; Markets; Long term; Short term; Macroeconomic analysis; Econometric model; Comparative study SD : Economía energía; Descubierta; Recurso energético; Campo petróleo; Ajuste; Mercado; Largo plazo; Corto plazo; Análisis macroeconómico; Modelo econométrico; Estudio comparativo LO : CNRS-17698 779/793 NO : PASCAL 91-0050444 INIST ET : Misspecification tests in econometrics based on ranks AU : MCCABE (B. P. M.) AF : Univ. Leeds/Leeds LS2 9JT/Royaume-Uni (A11011000) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Journal of Econometrics; ISSN 0304-4076; Pays-Bas; Da. 1989; Vol. 40; No. 2; Pp. 261-278; Bibl. 19 ref. LA : Anglais CC : 001A02D14 FD : Statistique rang; Modèle économétrique; Régression; Ecart; Simulation statistique; Robustesse test; Mauvaise spécification; Echangeabilité ED : Rank statistics; Econometric model; Regression; Deviation; Statistical simulation; Test robustness SD : Estadística rango; Modelo econométrico; Regresión; Desviación; Simulación estadistica; Robustez prueba LO : CNRS-16460 780/793 NO : PASCAL 90-0343533 INIST ET : Navy fuel production during a middle east political disruption AU : HADDER (G. R.); DAS (S.); LEIBY (P. N.); LEE (R.); DAVIS (R. M.) AF : Oak Ridge national lab., energy div./Oak Ridge TN 37831/Etats-Unis (A11011000) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy (Oxford); ISSN 0360-5442; Coden ENEYDS; Etats-Unis; Da. 1989; Vol. 14; No. 12; Pp. 965-966; Bibl. 4 ref. LA : Anglais FA : Utilisation d'un modèle économétrique et de deux modèles de programmation linéaire pour simuler la production de carburéacteur JP-5 et de diesel marin F-76 pour la Marine de guerre américaine, en cas de conflit politique au Moyen-Orient en 1995. Celui-ci se traduirait par une diminution de 50% du pétrole exporté par la Libye, l'Algérie et les pays du Golfe Persique et par une production maximale des autres pays membres de l'OPEP CC : 230A01A01; 001D06A01 FD : Economie énergie; Capacité production; Carburéacteur; Fuel oil marine; Conflit; Moyen Orient; Modèle économétrique; Programmation linéaire; Etats Unis; Carburéacteur JP-5; Fuel oil F-76; Petroleum Allocation Model; Modèle PAL; Refinery Yield Model; Oil Market Simulation Model FG : Asie; Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Energy economy; Production capacity; Jet fuel; Marine fuel oil; Conflict; Middle east; Econometric model; Linear programming; United States EG : Asia; North America; America SD : Economía energía; Capacidad producción; Carburante motor chorro; Fuel oil marino; Conflicto; Oriente Medio; Modelo econométrico; Programación lineal; Estados Unidos LO : CNRS-16809 781/793 NO : PASCAL 90-0098102 INIST ET : Traffic models and road transport informatics (RTI) systems AU : STERGIOU (B.); STATHOPOULOS (A.) AF : Drive, cent. office/Brussels 1040/Belgique (A11011000) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Traffic Engineering and Control; ISSN 0041-0683; Coden TENCA4; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1989; Vol. 30; No. 12; Pp. 581-586; Bibl. 13 ref. LA : Anglais FA : Présentation d'axes de recherche du programme DRIVE de la CEE, ayant l'objectif d'introduire dans les systèmes de transport les systèmes RTI; l'article est focalisé sur les implications de ces systèmes pour la modélisation des transports et la stimulation de l'écoulement du trafic (problèmes du rapport entre macrosimulation et microsimulation du comportement du conducteur). CC : 001D15C FD : Transport routier; Assistance ordinateur; Programme recherche; CEE; Modélisation; Ecoulement trafic; Conduite véhicule; Microsimulation ED : Road transportation; Computer aid; Research program; EEC; Modeling; Traffic flow; Vehicle driving SD : Transporte por carretera; Asistencia ordenador; Programa investigación; CEE; Modelización; Flujo tráfico; Conducción vehículo LO : CNRS-13729 782/793 NO : PASCAL 90-0005698 IFP ET : The economic impact of oil prices on exploration and production activities AU : GARCIA-SINERIZ (B.) AF : Repsol Exploration/Espagne (A11011000) DT : Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : European Communities symposium. 3/1988-03-22/Luxembourg; Luxembourg; London: Graham & Trotman; Da. 1988; Pp. 12-26 LA : Anglais FA : Développement d'un modèle mathématique de simulation, destiné à étudier l'influence du prix du pétrole sur les activités de prospection et de développement des gisements de gaz et de pétrole CC : 230B02B01 FD : Prospection; Développement; Champ gaz; Champ pétrole; Prix; Pétrole brut; Forage; Exploration; Exploitation; Modèle économétrique ED : Prospecting; Development; Gas field; Oil field; Price; Crude oil; Drilling; Exploration; Exploitation; Econometric model SD : Prospección; Desarrollo; Campo gas; Campo petróleo; Precio; Petróleo bruto; Sondeo; Exploración; Explotación; Modelo econométrico LO : IFP-B16192 783/793 NO : PASCAL 89-0253283 INIST ET : Evolution and adaptation in a stochastic market model. An application of the simulation language ESL AU : OHLENDORF (G.); STAHLECKER (P.) AF : Univ. Hannover, Inst. Informatik/Hannover 3000/Allemagne (A11011000) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Angewandte Informatik; ISSN 0013-5704; Coden AWIFA7; Allemagne; Da. 1988; Vol. 30; No. 11; Pp. 491-494; Abs. GER; Bibl. 6 ref. LA : Anglais CC : 001D02B08 FD : Modèle économétrique; Modèle stochastique; Modélisation; Simulation; Langage simulation; ESL ED : Econometric model; Stochastic model; Modeling; Simulation; Simulation language SD : Modelo econométrico; Modelo estocástico; Modelización; Simulación; Lenguaje simulación LO : CNRS-2890 784/793 NO : PASCAL 89-0023166 INIST FT : (Modèles de formation des prix des travaux de prospection géologiques de pétrole et de gaz dans la nouvelle situation économique) ET : (Pricing models for oil and gas geological prospection in the new economic conditions) AU : SEMIKHODSKIJ (G. E.) AF : DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Neftjanaja i gazovaja promyšlennost (Kiev. 1960); ISSN 0548-1414; URSS; Da. 1988; No. 3; Pp. 1-4; Bibl. 3 ref. LA : Russe FA : Etude sur l'élaboration d'une approche méthodologique unique de la planification de tout le système des indices d'autonomie financière pour les travaux de prospection géologiques de gaz et de pétrole. Dans le cadre de cette conception est étudié le problème de la simulation des prix de la production principale, le rapport des prix centralisés et du montant du détail estimatif du marché; leurs modèles possibles et les méthodes de leur équilibrage en tenant compte des conditions variables géologiques et géographiques et des normes établies de formation des fonds de l'entreprise CC : 230B02B02A1 FD : Prospection géologique; Pétrole; Gaz; Analyse économique; Modèle économétrique; Simulation; Détermination prix; Planification; Investissement ED : Geological prospecting; Petroleum; Gases; Economic analysis; Econometric model; Simulation; Price determination; Planning; Investment SD : Prospección geológica; Petróleo; Gas; Análisis económico; Modelo econométrico; Simulación; Determinación precio; Planificación; Inversión LO : CNRS-8497 785/793 NO : PASCAL 88-0393900 INIST ET : Proceedings/Symposium on engineering data base management: ASME computers in engineering conference, New York, NY, August 11-12, 1987 AU : FULTON (R. E.) AF : Georgia inst. technology/Atlanta GA/Etats-Unis (A1201X000) DT : Publication en série; Congrès; Niveau monographique SO : Engineering with computers; ISSN 0177-0667; Etats-Unis; Da. 1988; Vol. 4; No. 1-2; ; Pp. 105 p.; Bibl. dissem. LA : Anglais FA : Les communications portent sur les capacités, les résultats et le potentiel des techniques de gestion des bases de données dans le domaine de l'ingéniérie. Les besoins sont examinés en détail ainsi que des approches visant à une intégration avec la CAO et la GAO. Le développement de base de données, l'intégration d'analyses multidisciplinaires et la gestion de données économétriques sont aussi abordées CC : 001D02B07D FD : Congrès; Conception assistée; Assistance ordinateur; Base connaissance; Intelligence artificielle; Conception ingéniérie; Construction mécanique; Simulation; Information technique; Architecture système; Contrôle; Base donnée relationnelle; Robotique; Traitement information; Système gestion base donnée; Implémentation; Coût; Performance; Modèle input output; Modèle économétrique; Technologie; Etat actuel; Recherche développement; Application industrielle; USAF; IDEF; CAD; CAM ED : Congress; Computer aided design; Computer aid; Knowledge base; Artificial intelligence; Engineering design; Mechanical engineering; Simulation; Technical information; System architecture; Check; Relational database; Robotics; Information processing; Data base management system; Implementation; Costs; Performance; Input output model; Econometric model; Technology; State of the art; Research and development; Industrial application SD : Congreso; Concepción asistida; Asistencia ordenador; Base conocimiento; Inteligencia artificial; Concepción ingeniería; Construcción mecánica; Simulación; Información técnica; Arquitectura sistema; Control; Base relacional dato; Robótica; Procesamiento información; Sistema gestión base datos; Ejecución; Costo; Rendimiento; Modelo entrada salida; Modelo econométrico; Tecnología; Estado actual; Investigación desarrollo; Aplicación industrial LO : CNRS-20725 786/793 NO : PASCAL 88-0120721 INIST ET : Refinery investment and naval fuel production AU : HADDER (G. R.); DAS (S.); DAVIS (R. M.) AF : Oak Ridge national lab./Oak Ridge TN 37831/Etats-Unis (A11011000) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy (Oxford); ISSN 0360-5442; Etats-Unis; Da. 1988; Vol. 13; No. 1; Pp. 45-56; Bibl. 11 ref. LA : Anglais FA : Les mouvements globaux des produits pétroliers - approvisionnement en pétrole brut et production de produits raffinés - sont estimés à l'aide du modèle PAL (Petroleum Allocation). Ces données sont introduites dans le modèle Refinery Yield (RYM) de simulation des opérations de raffinage. Ces deux modèles sont utilisés pour prévoir les investissements dans les activités de raffinage de la côte Ouest et du golfe du Texas et la production des carburants marins en 1990 et 1995 CC : 230A01B02; 230B02E03; 001D06A01 FD : Economie pétrolière; Modèle économétrique; Etats Unis; Investissement; Raffinage; Capacité production; Carburant; Transport maritime; Carburéacteur; 1990; 1995; Modèle PAL; Modèle RYM FG : Amérique du Nord; Amérique ED : Oil economy; Econometric model; United States; Investment; Refining; Production capacity; Motor fuel; Maritime transportation; Jet fuel EG : North America; America SD : Economía petrolera; Modelo econométrico; Estados Unidos; Inversión; Refinación; Capacidad producción; Carburante; Transporte marítimo; Carburante motor chorro LO : CNRS-16809 787/793 NO : PASCAL 87-0425848 IFP ET : Energy policy of industrialized countries: The austrian experience evaluated within an empirical framework AU : WIRL (F.) AF : Univ. Technology/Vienna/Autriche (A11011000) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy exploration & exploitation; ISSN 0144-5987; Coden EEEXDU; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1987; Vol. 5; No. 2; Pp. 141-156; Bibl. 6 ref. LA : Anglais FA : Analyse de la politique énergétique des pays industrialisés, et en particulier de l'Autriche, en utilisant un modèle de simulation économétrique de la consommation et des approvisionnements CC : 230A01A; 001D06A01 FD : Economie énergie; Pays industrialisé; Pétrole; Charbon; Consommation; Production; Modèle simulation; Autriche; Modèle économétrique; Approvisionnement; Etude marché FG : Europe ED : Energy economy; Industrialized country; Petroleum; Coal; Consumption; Production; Simulation model; Austria; Econometric model; Supply; Market survey EG : Europe SD : Economía energía; País industrializado; Petróleo; Carbon; Consumo; Produccion; Modelo simulación; Austria; Modelo econométrico; Aprovisionamiento; Estudio mercado LO : IFP-PC773 788/793 NO : PASCAL 87-0394868 INIST FT : (L'impact de la baisse du prix du pétrole sur les économies des pays arabes) ET : (The impact of oil price decline on the economies of the Arab countries) AU : IBRAHIM (I. B.) AF : Organization Arab petroleum exporting countries/Safat 13066/Koweït (A11011000) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Oil and Arab cooperation; ISSN 0251-415X; Koweït; Da. 1987; Vol. 13; No. 1; Pp. 33-57; Abs. ENG; Bibl. 12 ref. LA : Arabe FA : Les simulations réalisées à l'aide de modèles économétriques montrent que la croissance négative qu'ont connu les principaux pays exportateurs de pétrole de 1980 à 1985 va se poursuivre au cours des années 1985-1990. Pour ceux pour lesquels le choc a été moins sévère, la croissance économique va marquer une pause CC : 230A01A; 230A01B02 FD : Pétrole; Prix; Diminution; Economie pétrolière; Economie; Péninsule Arabique; Croissance économique; Modèle économétrique; Simulation; 1980-1990 FG : Asie ED : Petroleum; Price; Decrease; Oil economy; Economy; Arabian Peninsula; Economic development; Econometric model; Simulation EG : Asia SD : Petróleo; Precio; Disminucion; Economía petrolera; Economia; Península arábica; Crecimiento económico; Modelo econométrico; Simulacion LO : CNRS-17795 789/793 NO : PASCAL 87-0119533 INIST ET : MULTSIM: a model for simulate vehicular traffic on multi-lane arterial roads AU : GIPPS (P. G.) AF : CSIRO, div. building res./Highett Victoria 3190/Etats-Unis (A11011000) DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Mathematics and computers in simulation; ISSN 0378-4754; Pays-Bas; Da. 1986; Vol. 28; No. 4; Pp. 291-295; Bibl. 6 ref. LA : Anglais FA : Conception du modèle MUTSIM comme instrument d'étude des influences des variations dans l'environnement du déplacement sur l'écoulement du trafic. Le programme standard réalise une microsimulation du trafic dans laquelle les conducteurs individuels ont des objectifs et des contraintes déterminés CC : 001D15C FD : Ecoulement trafic; Route grande circulation; Trafic routier; Simulation; Modèle MUTSIM ED : Traffic flow; Main road; Road traffic; Simulation SD : Flujo tráfico; Carretera gran circulación; Tráfico carretera; Simulacion LO : CNRS-1331 790/793 NO : PASCAL 86-0067573 INIST ET : Forecasting automobile demand using disaggregate choice models AU : BERKOVEC (J.) AF : Univ. Virginia, dep. economics DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part B: methodological; ISSN 0191-2615; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1985; Vol. 19; No. 4; Pp. 315-329; Bibl. 12 ref. LA : Anglais FA : On présente un modèle de simulation du marché automobile américain qui combine un modèle désagrégé et un modèle économétrique selon une approche similaire à celles de Manski (1980) et Manski et Sherman (1980) CC : 001D15B FD : Modèle désagrégé; Modèle économétrique; Automobile; Demande transport; Prévision ED : Disaggregate demand model; Econometric model; Automobile; Transport demand; Forecasting LO : CNRS 791/793 NO : PASCAL 86-0067572 INIST ET : An econometric model of vehicle use in the household sector AU : HENSHER (D. A.) AF : Macquarie univ., school economic financial studies DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Transportation research. Part B: methodological; ISSN 0191-2615; Royaume-Uni; Da. 1985; Vol. 19; No. 4; Pp. 303-313; Bibl. 8 ref. LA : Anglais FA : On présente une méthode économétrique pour identifier les influences de l'utilisation domestique des véhicules. Elle diffère d'études précédentes au sens que l'utilisation de chaque véhicule dépend de façon endogène de l'utilisation des autres véhicules du ménage, ainsi que le kilométrage, le coût du carburant au kilomètre et l'efficacité à long terme du carburant CC : 001D15C FD : Véhicule routier; Modèle économétrique; Ménage; Utilisation; Simulation; Conservation énergie ED : Road vehicle; Econometric model; Homehold; Use; Simulation; Energy conservation SD : Utilizacion LO : CNRS 792/793 NO : PASCAL 86-0061039 INIST FT : Modèle interindustriel-énergétique de long terme (M.I.E.L.) ET : (Long term interindustrial energy model (M.I.E.L.)) AU : CAPROS (P.); LADOUX (N.) AF : DT : Congrès; Niveau analytique SO : Association d'économétrie appliquée. Colloque international. 2; France; Economica; Da. 1985; Pp. 19-51 LA : Français FA : Description du modèle M.I.E.L. de simulation macroéconomique estimé sur la base des données des séries de la Comptabilité Nationale Française pour la période 1959-1979. Utilisations possibles de celui-ci dans le domaine de l'énergie CC : 230A01B01 FD : Economie énergie; Simulation; Modèle économétrique; Long terme; Monographie; France; Modèle économétrique MIEL ED : Energy economy; Simulation; Econometric model; Long term; Monographs; France SD : Largo plazo; Francia LO : CNRS 793/793 NO : PASCAL 84-0237034 INIST ET : Impacts of energy price increases on the well-being of farmers and consumers AU : CHRISTENSEN (D. A.); HEADY (E. O.) AF : Soil conservation service, national tech. cent. DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique SO : Energy Systems and Policy; ISSN 0090-8347; Etats-Unis; Da. 1984; Vol. 8; No. 3; Pp. 293-312; Bibl. 9 ref. LA : Anglais FA : Utilisation du modèle économétrique de simulation de l'agriculture nationale (NAES) pour étudier l'influence de 5 scénarios d'évolution des prix du carburant diesel de 1980 à 2000 sur la production et les prix des produits alimentaires aux Etats-Unis CC : 230A01B02; 001D06A01 FD : Economie pétrolière; Prix; Carburant diesel; Augmentation; Agriculture; Produit alimentaire; Production; Prévision; Simulation; Modèle économétrique; Etats Unis; Modèle NAES; Période 1980-2000; Impact agriculture ED : Oil economy; Price; Diesel fuel; Increase; Agriculture; Foodstuff; Production; Forecasting; Simulation; Econometric model; United States LO : CNRS