Development and Assessment of a Geographic Knowledge-Based Model for Mapping Suitable Areas for Rift Valley Fever Transmission in Eastern Africa.
Identifieur interne : 000036 ( PubMed/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000035; suivant : 000037Development and Assessment of a Geographic Knowledge-Based Model for Mapping Suitable Areas for Rift Valley Fever Transmission in Eastern Africa.
Auteurs : Annelise Tran ; Carlène Trevennec [Italie] ; Julius Lutwama [Ouganda] ; Joseph Sserugga [Ouganda] ; Marie Gély [France] ; Claudia Pittiglio [Italie] ; Julio Pinto [Italie] ; Véronique Chevalier [France]Source :
- PLoS neglected tropical diseases [ 1935-2735 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
Rift Valley fever (RVF), a mosquito-borne disease affecting ruminants and humans, is one of the most important viral zoonoses in Africa. The objective of the present study was to develop a geographic knowledge-based method to map the areas suitable for RVF amplification and RVF spread in four East African countries, namely, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia, and to assess the predictive accuracy of the model using livestock outbreak data from Kenya and Tanzania. Risk factors and their relative importance regarding RVF amplification and spread were identified from a literature review. A numerical weight was calculated for each risk factor using an analytical hierarchy process. The corresponding geographic data were collected, standardized and combined based on a weighted linear combination to produce maps of the suitability for RVF transmission. The accuracy of the resulting maps was assessed using RVF outbreak locations in livestock reported in Kenya and Tanzania between 1998 and 2012 and the ROC curve analysis. Our results confirmed the capacity of the geographic information system-based multi-criteria evaluation method to synthesize available scientific knowledge and to accurately map (AUC = 0.786; 95% CI [0.730-0.842]) the spatial heterogeneity of RVF suitability in East Africa. This approach provides users with a straightforward and easy update of the maps according to data availability or the further development of scientific knowledge.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004999
PubMed: 27631374
Affiliations:
- France, Italie, Ouganda
- Languedoc-Roussillon, Latium, Occitanie (région administrative)
- Montpellier, Rome
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Assessment of a Geographic Knowledge-Based Model for Mapping Suitable Areas for Rift Valley Fever Transmission in Eastern Africa.</title><author><name sortKey="Tran, Annelise" sort="Tran, Annelise" uniqKey="Tran A" first="Annelise" last="Tran">Annelise Tran</name><affiliation><nlm:affiliation>CIRAD, UPR AGIRs, Ste-Clotilde, Reunion Island.</nlm:affiliation><wicri:noCountry code="subField">Reunion Island</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Trevennec, Carlene" sort="Trevennec, Carlene" uniqKey="Trevennec C" first="Carlène" last="Trevennec">Carlène Trevennec</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Rome</settlement><region nuts="2">Latium</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lutwama, Julius" sort="Lutwama, Julius" uniqKey="Lutwama J" first="Julius" last="Lutwama">Julius Lutwama</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Uganda Virus Research Institute, Entebbe, Uganda.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Ouganda</country><wicri:regionArea>Uganda Virus Research Institute, Entebbe</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Entebbe</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Sserugga, Joseph" sort="Sserugga, Joseph" uniqKey="Sserugga J" first="Joseph" last="Sserugga">Joseph Sserugga</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Uganda Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, Entebbe, Uganda.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Ouganda</country><wicri:regionArea>Uganda Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, Entebbe</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Entebbe</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gely, Marie" sort="Gely, Marie" uniqKey="Gely M" first="Marie" last="Gély">Marie Gély</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>CIRAD, UPR AGIRs, Montpellier, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>CIRAD, UPR AGIRs, Montpellier</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Occitanie (région administrative)</region><region type="old region">Languedoc-Roussillon</region><settlement type="city">Montpellier</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pittiglio, Claudia" sort="Pittiglio, Claudia" uniqKey="Pittiglio C" first="Claudia" last="Pittiglio">Claudia Pittiglio</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Rome</settlement><region nuts="2">Latium</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pinto, Julio" sort="Pinto, Julio" uniqKey="Pinto J" first="Julio" last="Pinto">Julio Pinto</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Rome</settlement><region nuts="2">Latium</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chevalier, Veronique" sort="Chevalier, Veronique" uniqKey="Chevalier V" first="Véronique" last="Chevalier">Véronique Chevalier</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>CIRAD, UPR AGIRs, Montpellier, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>CIRAD, UPR AGIRs, Montpellier</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Occitanie (région administrative)</region><region type="old region">Languedoc-Roussillon</region><settlement type="city">Montpellier</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS neglected tropical diseases</title><idno type="eISSN">1935-2735</idno><imprint><date when="2016" type="published">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Rift Valley fever (RVF), a mosquito-borne disease affecting ruminants and humans, is one of the most important viral zoonoses in Africa. The objective of the present study was to develop a geographic knowledge-based method to map the areas suitable for RVF amplification and RVF spread in four East African countries, namely, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia, and to assess the predictive accuracy of the model using livestock outbreak data from Kenya and Tanzania. Risk factors and their relative importance regarding RVF amplification and spread were identified from a literature review. A numerical weight was calculated for each risk factor using an analytical hierarchy process. The corresponding geographic data were collected, standardized and combined based on a weighted linear combination to produce maps of the suitability for RVF transmission. The accuracy of the resulting maps was assessed using RVF outbreak locations in livestock reported in Kenya and Tanzania between 1998 and 2012 and the ROC curve analysis. Our results confirmed the capacity of the geographic information system-based multi-criteria evaluation method to synthesize available scientific knowledge and to accurately map (AUC = 0.786; 95% CI [0.730-0.842]) the spatial heterogeneity of RVF suitability in East Africa. This approach provides users with a straightforward and easy update of the maps according to data availability or the further development of scientific knowledge.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="In-Data-Review" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">27631374</PMID><DateCreated><Year>2016</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>16</Day></DateCreated><DateRevised><Year>2016</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>29</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic-eCollection"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1935-2735</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>10</Volume><Issue>9</Issue><PubDate><Year>2016</Year><Month>Sep</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>PLoS neglected tropical diseases</Title><ISOAbbreviation>PLoS Negl Trop Dis</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Development and Assessment of a Geographic Knowledge-Based Model for Mapping Suitable Areas for Rift Valley Fever Transmission in Eastern Africa.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>e0004999</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1371/journal.pntd.0004999</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Rift Valley fever (RVF), a mosquito-borne disease affecting ruminants and humans, is one of the most important viral zoonoses in Africa. The objective of the present study was to develop a geographic knowledge-based method to map the areas suitable for RVF amplification and RVF spread in four East African countries, namely, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia, and to assess the predictive accuracy of the model using livestock outbreak data from Kenya and Tanzania. Risk factors and their relative importance regarding RVF amplification and spread were identified from a literature review. A numerical weight was calculated for each risk factor using an analytical hierarchy process. The corresponding geographic data were collected, standardized and combined based on a weighted linear combination to produce maps of the suitability for RVF transmission. The accuracy of the resulting maps was assessed using RVF outbreak locations in livestock reported in Kenya and Tanzania between 1998 and 2012 and the ROC curve analysis. Our results confirmed the capacity of the geographic information system-based multi-criteria evaluation method to synthesize available scientific knowledge and to accurately map (AUC = 0.786; 95% CI [0.730-0.842]) the spatial heterogeneity of RVF suitability in East Africa. This approach provides users with a straightforward and easy update of the maps according to data availability or the further development of scientific knowledge.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Tran</LastName><ForeName>Annelise</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CIRAD, UPR AGIRs, Ste-Clotilde, Reunion Island.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CIRAD, UMR TETIS, Ste-Clotilde, Reunion Island.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Trevennec</LastName><ForeName>Carlène</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lutwama</LastName><ForeName>Julius</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Uganda Virus Research Institute, Entebbe, Uganda.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sserugga</LastName><ForeName>Joseph</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Uganda Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, Entebbe, Uganda.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Gély</LastName><ForeName>Marie</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CIRAD, UPR AGIRs, Montpellier, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Pittiglio</LastName><ForeName>Claudia</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Pinto</LastName><ForeName>Julio</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Chevalier</LastName><ForeName>Véronique</ForeName><Initials>V</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CIRAD, UPR AGIRs, Montpellier, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2016</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>15</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>PLoS Negl Trop Dis</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101291488</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1935-2727</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><OtherID Source="NLM">PMC5025187</OtherID></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2016</Year><Month>03</Month><Day>01</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2016</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>22</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2016</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>16</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2016</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>16</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2016</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>16</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">27631374</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1371/journal.pntd.0004999</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">PNTD-D-16-00353</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC5025187</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>France</li><li>Italie</li><li>Ouganda</li></country><region><li>Languedoc-Roussillon</li><li>Latium</li><li>Occitanie (région administrative)</li></region><settlement><li>Montpellier</li><li>Rome</li></settlement></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Tran, Annelise" sort="Tran, Annelise" uniqKey="Tran A" first="Annelise" last="Tran">Annelise Tran</name></noCountry><country name="Italie"><region name="Latium"><name sortKey="Trevennec, Carlene" sort="Trevennec, Carlene" uniqKey="Trevennec C" first="Carlène" last="Trevennec">Carlène Trevennec</name></region><name sortKey="Pinto, Julio" sort="Pinto, Julio" uniqKey="Pinto J" first="Julio" last="Pinto">Julio Pinto</name><name sortKey="Pittiglio, Claudia" sort="Pittiglio, Claudia" uniqKey="Pittiglio C" first="Claudia" last="Pittiglio">Claudia Pittiglio</name></country><country name="Ouganda"><noRegion><name sortKey="Lutwama, Julius" sort="Lutwama, Julius" uniqKey="Lutwama J" first="Julius" last="Lutwama">Julius Lutwama</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Sserugga, Joseph" sort="Sserugga, Joseph" uniqKey="Sserugga J" first="Joseph" last="Sserugga">Joseph Sserugga</name></country><country name="France"><region name="Occitanie (région administrative)"><name sortKey="Gely, Marie" sort="Gely, Marie" uniqKey="Gely M" first="Marie" last="Gély">Marie Gély</name></region><name sortKey="Chevalier, Veronique" sort="Chevalier, Veronique" uniqKey="Chevalier V" first="Véronique" last="Chevalier">Véronique Chevalier</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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