Tapping unsustainable groundwater stores for agricultural production in the High Plains Aquifer of Kansas, projections to 2110
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Auteurs : David R. Steward ; Paul J. Bruss ; Xiaoying Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Scott A. Staggenborg ; Stephen M. Welch ; Michael D. ApleySource :
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [ 0027-8424 ] ; 2013.
Abstract
Society faces the multifaceted crossroads dilemma of sustainably balancing today’s livelihood with future resource needs. Currently, agriculture is tapping the High Plains Aquifer beyond natural replenishment rates to grow irrigated crops and livestock that augment global food stocks, and science-based information is needed to guide choices. We present new methods to project trends in groundwater pumping and irrigated corn and cattle production. Although production declines are inevitable, scenario analysis substantiates the impacts of increasing near-term water savings, which would extend the usable lifetime of the aquifer, increase net production, and generate a less dramatic production decline.
Url:
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1220351110
PubMed: 23980153
PubMed Central: 3773770
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Bruss</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Civil Engineering,<institution>Kansas State University</institution>, Manhattan,<addr-line>KS</addr-line> 66506;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Xiaoying" sort="Yang, Xiaoying" uniqKey="Yang X" first="Xiaoying" last="Yang">Xiaoying Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff2">Department of Environmental Science and Engineering,<institution>Fudan University</institution>, Shanghai 200433,<country>China</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Staggenborg, Scott A" sort="Staggenborg, Scott A" uniqKey="Staggenborg S" first="Scott A." last="Staggenborg">Scott A. 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Steward</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Civil Engineering,<institution>Kansas State University</institution>, Manhattan,<addr-line>KS</addr-line> 66506;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bruss, Paul J" sort="Bruss, Paul J" uniqKey="Bruss P" first="Paul J." last="Bruss">Paul J. Bruss</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff1">Department of Civil Engineering,<institution>Kansas State University</institution>, Manhattan,<addr-line>KS</addr-line> 66506;</nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Xiaoying" sort="Yang, Xiaoying" uniqKey="Yang X" first="Xiaoying" last="Yang">Xiaoying Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff wicri:cut="; and" id="aff2">Department of Environmental Science and Engineering,<institution>Fudan University</institution>, Shanghai 200433,<country>China</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Staggenborg, Scott A" sort="Staggenborg, Scott A" uniqKey="Staggenborg S" first="Scott A." last="Staggenborg">Scott A. Staggenborg</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Welch, Stephen M" sort="Welch, Stephen M" uniqKey="Welch S" first="Stephen M." last="Welch">Stephen M. Welch</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff3"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Apley, Michael D" sort="Apley, Michael D" uniqKey="Apley M" first="Michael D." last="Apley">Michael D. Apley</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="aff4">Clinical Sciences,<institution>Kansas State University</institution>, Manhattan,<addr-line>KS</addr-line> 66506</nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</title><idno type="ISSN">0027-8424</idno><idno type="eISSN">1091-6490</idno><imprint><date when="2013">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><title>Significance</title><p>Society faces the multifaceted crossroads dilemma of sustainably balancing today’s livelihood with future resource needs. Currently, agriculture is tapping the High Plains Aquifer beyond natural replenishment rates to grow irrigated crops and livestock that augment global food stocks, and science-based information is needed to guide choices. We present new methods to project trends in groundwater pumping and irrigated corn and cattle production. Although production declines are inevitable, scenario analysis substantiates the impacts of increasing near-term water savings, which would extend the usable lifetime of the aquifer, increase net production, and generate a less dramatic production decline.</p></div></front></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-comment>The publisher of this article does not allow downloading of the full text in XML form.</pmc-comment>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="hwp">pnas</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">pnas</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">PNAS</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">0027-8424</issn><issn pub-type="epub">1091-6490</issn><publisher><publisher-name>National Academy of Sciences</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">23980153</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">3773770</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">201220351</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1073/pnas.1220351110</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>PNAS Plus</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Physical Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Sustainability Science</subject></subj-group></subj-group><series-title>PNAS Plus</series-title></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Tapping unsustainable groundwater stores for agricultural production in the High Plains Aquifer of Kansas, projections to 2110</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="short">Tapping groundwater stores for agriculture</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Steward</surname><given-names>David R.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Bruss</surname><given-names>Paul J.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>a</sup></xref><xref ref-type="author-notes" rid="fn1"><sup>2</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Yang</surname><given-names>Xiaoying</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>b</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Staggenborg</surname><given-names>Scott A.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>c</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Welch</surname><given-names>Stephen M.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>c</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Apley</surname><given-names>Michael D.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4"><sup>d</sup></xref></contrib><aff id="aff1"><sup>a</sup>Department of Civil Engineering,<institution>Kansas State University</institution>, Manhattan,<addr-line>KS</addr-line> 66506;</aff><aff id="aff2"><sup>b</sup>Department of Environmental Science and Engineering,<institution>Fudan University</institution>, Shanghai 200433,<country>China</country>; and</aff><aff id="aff3">Departments of<sup>c</sup>Agronomy and</aff><aff id="aff4"><sup>d</sup>Clinical Sciences,<institution>Kansas State University</institution>, Manhattan,<addr-line>KS</addr-line> 66506</aff></contrib-group><author-notes><corresp id="cor1"><sup>1</sup>To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: <email>steward@ksu.edu</email>.</corresp><fn fn-type="edited-by"><p>Edited by Dieter Gerten, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, and accepted by the Editorial Board July 16, 2013 (received for review November 26, 2012)</p></fn><fn fn-type="con"><p>Author contributions: D.R.S., P.J.B., S.M.W., and M.D.A. designed research; D.R.S., P.J.B., X.Y., S.M.W., and M.D.A. performed research; D.R.S. contributed new reagents/analytic tools; D.R.S., P.J.B., X.Y., S.A.S., S.M.W., and M.D.A. analyzed data; and D.R.S., S.M.W., and M.D.A. wrote the paper.</p></fn><fn fn-type="present-address" id="fn1"><p><sup>2</sup>Present address: Bishop-Brogden Associates, Inc., Englewood, CO 80110.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="ppub"><day>10</day><month>9</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>26</day><month>8</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="pmc-release"><day>26</day><month>8</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><pmc-comment> PMC Release delay is 0 months and 0 days and was based on the
<volume>110</volume><issue>37</issue><fpage>E3477</fpage><lpage>E3486</lpage><permissions><license license-type="open-access"><license-p>Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:title="pdf" xlink:type="simple" xlink:href="pnas.201220351.pdf"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="executive-summary"><title>Significance</title><p>Society faces the multifaceted crossroads dilemma of sustainably balancing today’s livelihood with future resource needs. Currently, agriculture is tapping the High Plains Aquifer beyond natural replenishment rates to grow irrigated crops and livestock that augment global food stocks, and science-based information is needed to guide choices. We present new methods to project trends in groundwater pumping and irrigated corn and cattle production. Although production declines are inevitable, scenario analysis substantiates the impacts of increasing near-term water savings, which would extend the usable lifetime of the aquifer, increase net production, and generate a less dramatic production decline.</p></abstract><abstract><p>Groundwater provides a reliable tap to sustain agricultural production, yet persistent aquifer depletion threatens future sustainability. The High Plains Aquifer supplies 30% of the nation’s irrigated groundwater, and the Kansas portion supports the congressional district with the highest market value for agriculture in the nation. We project groundwater declines to assess when the study area might run out of water, and comprehensively forecast the impacts of reduced pumping on corn and cattle production. So far, 30% of the groundwater has been pumped and another 39% will be depleted over the next 50 y given existing trends. Recharge supplies 15% of current pumping and would take an average of 500–1,300 y to completely refill a depleted aquifer. Significant declines in the region’s pumping rates will occur over the next 15–20 y given current trends, yet irrigated agricultural production might increase through 2040 because of projected increases in water use efficiencies in corn production. Water use reductions of 20% today would cut agricultural production to the levels of 15–20 y ago, the time of peak agricultural production would extend to the 2070s, and production beyond 2070 would significantly exceed that projected without reduced pumping. Scenarios evaluate incremental reductions of current pumping by 20–80%, the latter rate approaching natural recharge. Findings substantiate that saving more water today would result in increased net production due to projected future increases in crop water use efficiencies. Society has an opportunity now to make changes with tremendous implications for future sustainability and livability.</p></abstract><kwd-group><kwd>food security</kwd><kwd>Ogallala Aquifer</kwd><kwd>sustainability challenges</kwd><kwd>resilience</kwd><kwd>ecosystem services</kwd></kwd-group><counts><page-count count="10"></page-count></counts></article-meta></front></pmc></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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