Changes in the Potential Multiple Cropping System in Response to Climate Change in China from 1960–2010
Identifieur interne : 000465 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 000464; suivant : 000466Changes in the Potential Multiple Cropping System in Response to Climate Change in China from 1960–2010
Auteurs : Luo Liu [République populaire de Chine] ; Xinliang Xu [République populaire de Chine] ; Dafang Zhuang [République populaire de Chine] ; Xi Chen [République populaire de Chine] ; Shuang Li [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- PLoS ONE [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2013.
Abstract
The multiple cropping practice is essential to agriculture because it has been shown to significantly increase the grain yield and promote agricultural economic development. In this study, potential multiple cropping systems in China are calculated based on meteorological observation data by using the Agricultural Ecology Zone (AEZ) model. Following this, the changes in the potential cropping systems in response to climate change between the 1960s and the 2010s were subsequently analyzed. The results indicate that the changes of potential multiple cropping systems show tremendous heterogeneity in respect to the spatial pattern in China. A key finding is that the magnitude of change of the potential cropping systems showed a pattern of increase both from northern China to southern China and from western China to eastern China. Furthermore, the area found to be suitable only for single cropping decreased, while the area suitable for triple cropping increased significantly from the 1960s to the 2000s. During the studied period, the potential multiple cropping index (PMCI) gap between rain-fed and irrigated scenarios increased from 18% to 24%, which indicated noticeable growth of water supply limitations under the rain-fed scenario. The most significant finding of this research was that from the 1960s to the 2000s climate change had led to a significant increase of PMCI by 13% under irrigated scenario and 7% under rain-fed scenario across the whole of China. Furthermore, the growth of the annual mean temperature is identified as the main reason underlying the increase of PMCI. It has also been noticed that across China the changes of potential multiple cropping systems under climate change were different from region to region.
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DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0080990
PubMed: 24312511
PubMed Central: 3849037
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Response to Climate Change in China from 1960–2010</title><author><name sortKey="Liu, Luo" sort="Liu, Luo" uniqKey="Liu L" first="Luo" last="Liu">Luo Liu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Urumqi</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><addr-line>University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, Xinliang" sort="Xu, Xinliang" uniqKey="Xu X" first="Xinliang" last="Xu">Xinliang Xu</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhuang, Dafang" sort="Zhuang, Dafang" uniqKey="Zhuang D" first="Dafang" last="Zhuang">Dafang Zhuang</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Xi" sort="Chen, Xi" uniqKey="Chen X" first="Xi" last="Chen">Xi Chen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Urumqi</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Shuang" sort="Li, Shuang" uniqKey="Li S" first="Shuang" last="Li">Shuang Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><addr-line>University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Pékin</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS ONE</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2013">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The multiple cropping practice is essential to agriculture because it has been shown to significantly increase the grain yield and promote agricultural economic development. In this study, potential multiple cropping systems in China are calculated based on meteorological observation data by using the Agricultural Ecology Zone (AEZ) model. Following this, the changes in the potential cropping systems in response to climate change between the 1960s and the 2010s were subsequently analyzed. The results indicate that the changes of potential multiple cropping systems show tremendous heterogeneity in respect to the spatial pattern in China. A key finding is that the magnitude of change of the potential cropping systems showed a pattern of increase both from northern China to southern China and from western China to eastern China. Furthermore, the area found to be suitable only for single cropping decreased, while the area suitable for triple cropping increased significantly from the 1960s to the 2000s. During the studied period, the potential multiple cropping index (PMCI) gap between rain-fed and irrigated scenarios increased from 18% to 24%, which indicated noticeable growth of water supply limitations under the rain-fed scenario. The most significant finding of this research was that from the 1960s to the 2000s climate change had led to a significant increase of PMCI by 13% under irrigated scenario and 7% under rain-fed scenario across the whole of China. Furthermore, the growth of the annual mean temperature is identified as the main reason underlying the increase of PMCI. It has also been noticed that across China the changes of potential multiple cropping systems under climate change were different from region to region.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ziqiang, F" uniqKey="Ziqiang F">F Ziqiang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yunlong, C" uniqKey="Yunlong C">C Yunlong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Youxiao, Y" uniqKey="Youxiao Y">Y Youxiao</name></author><author><name sortKey="Erfu, D" uniqKey="Erfu D">D Erfu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hong, Y" uniqKey="Hong Y">Y Hong</name></author><author><name sortKey="Xiubin, Y" uniqKey="Xiubin Y">Y Xiubin</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Von, B" uniqKey="Von B">B Von</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Guo, B" uniqKey="Guo B">B 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">PLoS One</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">PLoS ONE</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">plos</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">plosone</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>PLoS ONE</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1932-6203</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Public Library of Science</publisher-name><publisher-loc>San Francisco, USA</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">24312511</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">3849037</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">PONE-D-13-06797</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0080990</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Changes in the Potential Multiple Cropping System in Response to Climate Change in China from 1960–2010</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="running-head">Multiple Cropping System to Climate Changes</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Liu</surname><given-names>Luo</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>3</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Xu</surname><given-names>Xinliang</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Zhuang</surname><given-names>Dafang</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Chen</surname><given-names>Xi</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Li</surname><given-names>Shuang</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>3</sup></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Systems, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff3"><label>3</label><addr-line>University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China</addr-line></aff><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="editor"><name><surname>Yan</surname><given-names>Wengui</given-names></name><role>Editor</role><xref ref-type="aff" rid="edit1"></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="edit1"><addr-line>National Rice Research Center, United States of America</addr-line></aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1">* E-mail: <email>xuxl@lreis.ac.cn</email></corresp><fn fn-type="conflict"><p><bold>Competing Interests: </bold>The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.</p></fn><fn fn-type="con"><p>Conceived and designed the experiments: XX DZ XC. Performed the experiments: SL. Analyzed the data: XX. Wrote the paper: LL.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2013</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>3</day><month>12</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><volume>8</volume><issue>12</issue><elocation-id>e80990</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>1</day><month>2</month><year>2013</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>15</day><month>10</month><year>2013</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-year>2013</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Liu et al</copyright-holder><license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/"><license-p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">Creative Commons Attribution License</ext-link>, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>The multiple cropping practice is essential to agriculture because it has been shown to significantly increase the grain yield and promote agricultural economic development. In this study, potential multiple cropping systems in China are calculated based on meteorological observation data by using the Agricultural Ecology Zone (AEZ) model. Following this, the changes in the potential cropping systems in response to climate change between the 1960s and the 2010s were subsequently analyzed. The results indicate that the changes of potential multiple cropping systems show tremendous heterogeneity in respect to the spatial pattern in China. A key finding is that the magnitude of change of the potential cropping systems showed a pattern of increase both from northern China to southern China and from western China to eastern China. Furthermore, the area found to be suitable only for single cropping decreased, while the area suitable for triple cropping increased significantly from the 1960s to the 2000s. During the studied period, the potential multiple cropping index (PMCI) gap between rain-fed and irrigated scenarios increased from 18% to 24%, which indicated noticeable growth of water supply limitations under the rain-fed scenario. The most significant finding of this research was that from the 1960s to the 2000s climate change had led to a significant increase of PMCI by 13% under irrigated scenario and 7% under rain-fed scenario across the whole of China. Furthermore, the growth of the annual mean temperature is identified as the main reason underlying the increase of PMCI. It has also been noticed that across China the changes of potential multiple cropping systems under climate change were different from region to region.</p></abstract><funding-group><funding-statement>This research was supported and funded by National Program on Key Basic Research Project (973 Program) (Grant No. 2010CB950901), Project of Remote sensing investigation and assessment for Ecological environment changes in China(No. STSN-14-00) and project of CAS action-plan for West Development (No. KZCX2-XB3-08-01) The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.</funding-statement></funding-group><counts><page-count count="12"></page-count></counts></article-meta></front></pmc><affiliations><list><country><li>République populaire de Chine</li></country><settlement><li>Pékin</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Liu, Luo" sort="Liu, Luo" uniqKey="Liu L" first="Luo" last="Liu">Luo Liu</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Chen, Xi" sort="Chen, Xi" uniqKey="Chen X" first="Xi" last="Chen">Xi Chen</name><name sortKey="Li, Shuang" sort="Li, Shuang" uniqKey="Li S" first="Shuang" last="Li">Shuang Li</name><name sortKey="Li, Shuang" sort="Li, Shuang" uniqKey="Li S" first="Shuang" last="Li">Shuang Li</name><name sortKey="Liu, Luo" sort="Liu, Luo" uniqKey="Liu L" first="Luo" last="Liu">Luo Liu</name><name sortKey="Liu, Luo" sort="Liu, Luo" uniqKey="Liu L" first="Luo" last="Liu">Luo Liu</name><name sortKey="Xu, Xinliang" sort="Xu, Xinliang" uniqKey="Xu X" first="Xinliang" last="Xu">Xinliang Xu</name><name sortKey="Zhuang, Dafang" sort="Zhuang, Dafang" uniqKey="Zhuang D" first="Dafang" last="Zhuang">Dafang Zhuang</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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