Regional Assessment of Urban Impacts on Landcover and Open Space Finds a Smart Urban Growth Policy Performs Little Better than Business as Usual
Identifieur interne : 000434 ( Ncbi/Merge ); précédent : 000433; suivant : 000435Regional Assessment of Urban Impacts on Landcover and Open Space Finds a Smart Urban Growth Policy Performs Little Better than Business as Usual
Auteurs : James H. Thorne [États-Unis] ; Maria J. Santos [États-Unis] ; Jacquelyn H. Bjorkman [États-Unis]Source :
- PLoS ONE [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2013.
Abstract
Assessment of landscape change is critical for attainment of regional sustainability goals. Urban growth assessments are needed because over half the global population now lives in cities, which impact biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecological processes. Open space protection is needed to preserve these attributes, and provide the resources humans need. The San Francisco Bay Area, California, is challenged to accommodate a population increase of 3.07 million while maintaining the region’s ecosystems and biodiversity. Our analysis of 9275 km2 in the Bay Area links historic trends for three measures: urban growth, protected open space, and landcover types over the last 70 years to future 2050 projections of urban growth and open space. Protected open space totaled 348 km2 (3.7% of the area) in 1940, and expanded to 2221 km2 (20.2%) currently. An additional 1038 km2 of protected open space is targeted (35.1%). Urban area historically increased from 396.5 km2 to 2239 km2 (24.1% of the area). Urban growth during this time mostly occurred at the expense of agricultural landscapes (62.9%) rather than natural vegetation. Smart Growth development has been advanced as a preferred alternative in many planning circles, but we found that it conserved only marginally more open space than Business-as-usual when using an urban growth model to portray policies for future urban growth. Scenarios to 2050 suggest urban development on non-urban lands of 1091, 956, or 179 km2, under Business-as-usual, Smart Growth and Infill policy growth scenarios, respectively. The Smart Growth policy converts 88% of natural lands and agriculture used by Business-as-usual, while Infill used only 40% of those lands. Given the historic rate of urban growth, 0.25%/year, and limited space available, the Infill scenario is recommended. While the data may differ, the use of an historic and future framework to track these three variables can be easily applied to other metropolitan areas.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0065258
PubMed: 23755204
PubMed Central: 3673918
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Pmc, to step Corpus: 000171
- to stream Pmc, to step Curation: 000171
- to stream Pmc, to step Checkpoint: 000098
Links to Exploration step
PMC:3673918Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Regional Assessment of Urban Impacts on Landcover and Open Space Finds a Smart Urban Growth Policy Performs Little Better than Business as Usual</title><author><name sortKey="Thorne, James H" sort="Thorne, James H" uniqKey="Thorne J" first="James H." last="Thorne">James H. Thorne</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Information Center for the Environment, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Information Center for the Environment, University of California Davis, Davis, California</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Santos, Maria J" sort="Santos, Maria J" uniqKey="Santos M" first="Maria J." last="Santos">Maria J. Santos</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Spatial History Project and Bill Lane Center for the American West, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Spatial History Project and Bill Lane Center for the American West, Stanford University, Stanford, California</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H" sort="Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H" uniqKey="Bjorkman J" first="Jacquelyn H." last="Bjorkman">Jacquelyn H. Bjorkman</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Information Center for the Environment, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Information Center for the Environment, University of California Davis, Davis, California</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">23755204</idno><idno type="pmc">3673918</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3673918</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:3673918</idno><idno type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0065258</idno><date when="2013">2013</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000171</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000171</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000171</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000171</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000098</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000098</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000434</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Regional Assessment of Urban Impacts on Landcover and Open Space Finds a Smart Urban Growth Policy Performs Little Better than Business as Usual</title><author><name sortKey="Thorne, James H" sort="Thorne, James H" uniqKey="Thorne J" first="James H." last="Thorne">James H. Thorne</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Information Center for the Environment, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Information Center for the Environment, University of California Davis, Davis, California</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Santos, Maria J" sort="Santos, Maria J" uniqKey="Santos M" first="Maria J." last="Santos">Maria J. Santos</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Spatial History Project and Bill Lane Center for the American West, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Spatial History Project and Bill Lane Center for the American West, Stanford University, Stanford, California</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H" sort="Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H" uniqKey="Bjorkman J" first="Jacquelyn H." last="Bjorkman">Jacquelyn H. Bjorkman</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Information Center for the Environment, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Information Center for the Environment, University of California Davis, Davis, California</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS ONE</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2013">2013</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Assessment of landscape change is critical for attainment of regional sustainability goals. Urban growth assessments are needed because over half the global population now lives in cities, which impact biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecological processes. Open space protection is needed to preserve these attributes, and provide the resources humans need. The San Francisco Bay Area, California, is challenged to accommodate a population increase of 3.07 million while maintaining the region’s ecosystems and biodiversity. Our analysis of 9275 km<sup>2</sup> in the Bay Area links historic trends for three measures: urban growth, protected open space, and landcover types over the last 70 years to future 2050 projections of urban growth and open space. Protected open space totaled 348 km<sup>2</sup> (3.7% of the area) in 1940, and expanded to 2221 km<sup>2</sup> (20.2%) currently. An additional 1038 km<sup>2</sup> of protected open space is targeted (35.1%). Urban area historically increased from 396.5 km<sup>2</sup> to 2239 km<sup>2</sup> (24.1% of the area). Urban growth during this time mostly occurred at the expense of agricultural landscapes (62.9%) rather than natural vegetation. Smart Growth development has been advanced as a preferred alternative in many planning circles, but we found that it conserved only marginally more open space than Business-as-usual when using an urban growth model to portray policies for future urban growth. Scenarios to 2050 suggest urban development on non-urban lands of 1091, 956, or 179 km<sup>2</sup>, under Business-as-usual, Smart Growth and Infill policy growth scenarios, respectively. The Smart Growth policy converts 88% of natural lands and agriculture used by Business-as-usual, while Infill used only 40% of those lands. Given the historic rate of urban growth, 0.25%/year, and limited space available, the Infill scenario is recommended. While the data may differ, the use of an historic and future framework to track these three variables can be easily applied to other metropolitan areas.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Mcdonald, Ri" uniqKey="Mcdonald R">RI McDonald</name></author><author><name sortKey="Green, P" uniqKey="Green P">P Green</name></author><author><name sortKey="Balk, D" uniqKey="Balk D">D Balk</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fekete, Bm" uniqKey="Fekete B">BM Fekete</name></author><author><name sortKey="Revenga, C" uniqKey="Revenga C">C Revenga</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Jenerette, Gd" uniqKey="Jenerette G">GD Jenerette</name></author><author><name sortKey="Potere, D" uniqKey="Potere D">D Potere</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Theobald, D" uniqKey="Theobald D">D Theobald</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Theobald, Dn" uniqKey="Theobald D">DN Theobald</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hobbs, T" uniqKey="Hobbs T">T Hobbs</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bearly, T" uniqKey="Bearly T">T Bearly</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zack, Ja" uniqKey="Zack J">JA Zack</name></author><author><name sortKey="Shenk, T" uniqKey="Shenk T">T Shenk</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Grimm, Nb" uniqKey="Grimm N">NB Grimm</name></author><author><name sortKey="Foster, D" uniqKey="Foster D">D Foster</name></author><author><name sortKey="Groffman, P" uniqKey="Groffman P">P Groffman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Grove, Jm" uniqKey="Grove J">JM Grove</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hopkinson, Cs" uniqKey="Hopkinson C">CS Hopkinson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Grimm, Nb" uniqKey="Grimm N">NB Grimm</name></author><author><name sortKey="Faeth, Sh" uniqKey="Faeth S">SH Faeth</name></author><author><name sortKey="Golubiewski, Ne" uniqKey="Golubiewski N">NE Golubiewski</name></author><author><name sortKey="Redman, Cl" uniqKey="Redman C">CL Redman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, J" uniqKey="Wu J">J Wu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Satterthwaite, D" uniqKey="Satterthwaite D">D Satterthwaite</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mcgranahan, G" uniqKey="Mcgranahan G">G McGranahan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Tacoli, C" uniqKey="Tacoli C">C Tacoli</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hahs, Ak" uniqKey="Hahs A">AK Hahs</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mcdonnell, Mj" uniqKey="Mcdonnell M">MJ McDonnell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mccarthy, Ma" uniqKey="Mccarthy M">MA McCarthy</name></author><author><name sortKey="Vesk, Pa" uniqKey="Vesk P">PA Vesk</name></author><author><name sortKey="Corlett, Rt" uniqKey="Corlett R">RT Corlett</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Schwartz, Mw" uniqKey="Schwartz M">MW Schwartz</name></author><author><name sortKey="Thorne, Jh" uniqKey="Thorne J">JH Thorne</name></author><author><name sortKey="Viers, Jh" uniqKey="Viers J">JH Viers</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Mckinney, M" uniqKey="Mckinney M">M McKinney</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Mcdonald, Ri" uniqKey="Mcdonald R">RI McDonald</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Waddell, P" uniqKey="Waddell P">P Waddell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Breuste, J" uniqKey="Breuste J">J Breuste</name></author><author><name sortKey="Niemela, J" uniqKey="Niemela J">J Niemela</name></author><author><name sortKey="Snep, Rph" uniqKey="Snep R">RPH Snep</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Miller, Jr" uniqKey="Miller J">JR Miller</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hobbs, Rj" uniqKey="Hobbs R">RJ Hobbs</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Miller, Jr" uniqKey="Miller J">JR Miller</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Sanderson, Ew" uniqKey="Sanderson E">EW Sanderson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Huron, A" uniqKey="Huron A">A Huron</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Song, Y" uniqKey="Song Y">Y Song</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wieslander, Ae" uniqKey="Wieslander A">AE Wieslander</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Thorne, Jh" uniqKey="Thorne J">JH Thorne</name></author><author><name sortKey="Morgan, Bj" uniqKey="Morgan B">BJ Morgan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kennedy, Ja" uniqKey="Kennedy J">JA Kennedy</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lunetta, Rs" uniqKey="Lunetta R">RS Lunetta</name></author><author><name sortKey="Congalton, Rg" uniqKey="Congalton R">RG Congalton</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fenstermaker, Lk" uniqKey="Fenstermaker L">LK Fenstermaker</name></author><author><name sortKey="Jensen, Jr" uniqKey="Jensen J">JR Jensen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mcgwire, Kc" uniqKey="Mcgwire K">KC McGwire</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Johnston, Ra" uniqKey="Johnston R">RA Johnston</name></author><author><name sortKey="Shabazian, Dr" uniqKey="Shabazian D">DR Shabazian</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gao, S" uniqKey="Gao S">S Gao</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Byrd, Kb" uniqKey="Byrd K">KB Byrd</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rissman, Ar" uniqKey="Rissman A">AR Rissman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Merenlender, Am" uniqKey="Merenlender A">AM Merenlender</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Thorne, Jh" uniqKey="Thorne J">JH Thorne</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gao, S" uniqKey="Gao S">S Gao</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hollander, Ad" uniqKey="Hollander A">AD Hollander</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kennedy, Aj" uniqKey="Kennedy A">AJ Kennedy</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mccoy, M" uniqKey="Mccoy M">M McCoy</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Beardsley, K" uniqKey="Beardsley K">K Beardsley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Thorne, Jh" uniqKey="Thorne J">JH Thorne</name></author><author><name sortKey="Roth, Ne" uniqKey="Roth N">NE Roth</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gao, S" uniqKey="Gao S">S Gao</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mccoy, M" uniqKey="Mccoy M">M McCoy</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Huber, Pr" uniqKey="Huber P">PR Huber</name></author><author><name sortKey="Thorne, Jh" uniqKey="Thorne J">JH Thorne</name></author><author><name sortKey="Roth, Ne" uniqKey="Roth N">NE Roth</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mccoy, Mm" uniqKey="Mccoy M">MM McCoy</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Sanstad, Ah" uniqKey="Sanstad A">AH Sanstad</name></author><author><name sortKey="Johnson, H" uniqKey="Johnson H">H Johnson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Goldstein, N" uniqKey="Goldstein N">N Goldstein</name></author><author><name sortKey="Franco, G" uniqKey="Franco G">G Franco</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Johnston, Ra" uniqKey="Johnston R">RA Johnston</name></author><author><name sortKey="Roth, N" uniqKey="Roth N">N Roth</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bjorkman, J" uniqKey="Bjorkman J">J Bjorkman</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Grossinger, Rm" uniqKey="Grossinger R">RM Grossinger</name></author><author><name sortKey="Striplen, Cj" uniqKey="Striplen C">CJ Striplen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Askevold, Ra" uniqKey="Askevold R">RA Askevold</name></author><author><name sortKey="Brewster, E" uniqKey="Brewster E">E Brewster</name></author><author><name sortKey="Beller, Ee" uniqKey="Beller E">EE Beller</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Whipple, Aa" uniqKey="Whipple A">AA Whipple</name></author><author><name sortKey="Grossinger, Rm" uniqKey="Grossinger R">RM Grossinger</name></author><author><name sortKey="Davis, Fw" uniqKey="Davis F">FW Davis</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cox, Rl" uniqKey="Cox R">RL Cox</name></author><author><name sortKey="Underwood, Ec" uniqKey="Underwood E">EC Underwood</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Brown, Dg" uniqKey="Brown D">DG Brown</name></author><author><name sortKey="Johnson, Km" uniqKey="Johnson K">KM Johnson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Loveland, Tr" uniqKey="Loveland T">TR Loveland</name></author><author><name sortKey="Theobald, Dm" uniqKey="Theobald D">DM Theobald</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hansen, Aj" uniqKey="Hansen A">AJ Hansen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Knight, Rl" uniqKey="Knight R">RL Knight</name></author><author><name sortKey="Marzluff, Jm" uniqKey="Marzluff J">JM Marzluff</name></author><author><name sortKey="Powell, S" uniqKey="Powell S">S Powell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Brown, K" uniqKey="Brown K">K Brown</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Stephen, Sl" uniqKey="Stephen S">SL Stephen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Fry, Dl" uniqKey="Fry D">DL Fry</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="White, Kl" uniqKey="White K">KL White</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Callaway, Rm" uniqKey="Callaway R">RM Callaway</name></author><author><name sortKey="Davis, F" uniqKey="Davis F">F Davis</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hewett, Ce" uniqKey="Hewett C">CE Hewett</name></author><author><name sortKey="High, Cj" uniqKey="High C">CJ High</name></author><author><name sortKey="Marshall, N" uniqKey="Marshall N">N Marshall</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wildermuth, R" uniqKey="Wildermuth R">R Wildermuth</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Schoennagel, T" uniqKey="Schoennagel T">T Schoennagel</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nelson, Cr" uniqKey="Nelson C">CR Nelson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Theobald, Dm" uniqKey="Theobald D">DM Theobald</name></author><author><name sortKey="Carnwath, Gc" uniqKey="Carnwath G">GC Carnwath</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chapman, Tb" uniqKey="Chapman T">TB Chapman</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Schoellhamer, Dh" uniqKey="Schoellhamer D">DH Schoellhamer</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Tucci, M" uniqKey="Tucci M">M Tucci</name></author><author><name sortKey="Giordano, A" uniqKey="Giordano A">A Giordano</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ronza, Rw" uniqKey="Ronza R">RW Ronza</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Clarke, Kc" uniqKey="Clarke K">KC Clarke</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hoppen, S" uniqKey="Hoppen S">S Hoppen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gaydos, L" uniqKey="Gaydos L">L Gaydos</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Foresman, Tw" uniqKey="Foresman T">TW Foresman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Pickett, Sta" uniqKey="Pickett S">STA Pickett</name></author><author><name sortKey="Zipperer, Wc" uniqKey="Zipperer W">WC Zipperer</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Berling Wolff, S" uniqKey="Berling Wolff S">S Berling-Wolff</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, J" uniqKey="Wu J">J Wu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><pmc article-type="research-article"><pmc-dir>properties open_access</pmc-dir>
<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">PLoS One</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">PLoS ONE</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">plos</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">plosone</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>PLoS ONE</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1932-6203</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Public Library of Science</publisher-name><publisher-loc>San Francisco, USA</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">23755204</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">3673918</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">PONE-D-13-08137</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0065258</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v2"><subject>Biology</subject><subj-group><subject>Computational Biology</subject><subj-group><subject>Ecosystem Modeling</subject></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group><subject>Ecology</subject><subj-group><subject>Ecosystems</subject><subj-group><subject>Artificial Ecosystems</subject><subject>Ecosystem Engineering</subject><subject>Ecosystem Functioning</subject><subject>Ecosystem Modeling</subject></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group><subject>Conservation Science</subject><subject>Environmental Protection</subject><subject>Global Change Ecology</subject><subject>Industrial Ecology</subject><subject>Restoration Ecology</subject><subject>Spatial and Landscape Ecology</subject><subject>Terrestrial Ecology</subject><subject>Urban Ecology</subject></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group><subject>Population Biology</subject><subj-group><subject>Population Modeling</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v2"><subject>Earth Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Geography</subject><subj-group><subject>Geoinformatics</subject><subj-group><subject>Environmental Systems Modeling</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline-v2"><subject>Social and Behavioral Sciences</subject><subj-group><subject>Geography</subject><subj-group><subject>Geoinformatics</subject><subj-group><subject>Environmental Systems Modeling</subject></subj-group></subj-group><subj-group><subject>Human Geography</subject><subj-group><subject>Historical Geography</subject><subject>Nature and Society Interactions</subject><subject>Regional Geography</subject><subject>Settlement Patterns</subject><subject>Spatial Analysis</subject></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Regional Assessment of Urban Impacts on Landcover and Open Space Finds a Smart Urban Growth Policy Performs Little Better than Business as Usual</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="running-head">Historic and Future Urban Growth Impacts</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Thorne</surname><given-names>James H.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Santos</surname><given-names>Maria J.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Bjorkman</surname><given-names>Jacquelyn H.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><addr-line>Information Center for the Environment, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><addr-line>Spatial History Project and Bill Lane Center for the American West, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America</addr-line></aff><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="editor"><name><surname>Convertino</surname><given-names>Matteo</given-names></name><role>Editor</role><xref ref-type="aff" rid="edit1"></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="edit1"><addr-line>University of Florida, United States of America</addr-line></aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1">* E-mail: <email>jhthorne@ucdavis.edu</email></corresp><fn fn-type="conflict"><p><bold>Competing Interests: </bold>The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.</p></fn><fn fn-type="con"><p>Conceived and designed the experiments: JHT MJS. Performed the experiments: JHT MJS JHB. Analyzed the data: JHT MJS JHB. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: JHT MJS JHB. Wrote the paper: JHT MJS JHB.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2013</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>5</day><month>6</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><volume>8</volume><issue>6</issue><elocation-id>e65258</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>22</day><month>2</month><year>2013</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>27</day><month>4</month><year>2013</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-year>2013</copyright-year><copyright-holder>Thorne et al</copyright-holder><license><license-p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>Assessment of landscape change is critical for attainment of regional sustainability goals. Urban growth assessments are needed because over half the global population now lives in cities, which impact biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecological processes. Open space protection is needed to preserve these attributes, and provide the resources humans need. The San Francisco Bay Area, California, is challenged to accommodate a population increase of 3.07 million while maintaining the region’s ecosystems and biodiversity. Our analysis of 9275 km<sup>2</sup> in the Bay Area links historic trends for three measures: urban growth, protected open space, and landcover types over the last 70 years to future 2050 projections of urban growth and open space. Protected open space totaled 348 km<sup>2</sup> (3.7% of the area) in 1940, and expanded to 2221 km<sup>2</sup> (20.2%) currently. An additional 1038 km<sup>2</sup> of protected open space is targeted (35.1%). Urban area historically increased from 396.5 km<sup>2</sup> to 2239 km<sup>2</sup> (24.1% of the area). Urban growth during this time mostly occurred at the expense of agricultural landscapes (62.9%) rather than natural vegetation. Smart Growth development has been advanced as a preferred alternative in many planning circles, but we found that it conserved only marginally more open space than Business-as-usual when using an urban growth model to portray policies for future urban growth. Scenarios to 2050 suggest urban development on non-urban lands of 1091, 956, or 179 km<sup>2</sup>, under Business-as-usual, Smart Growth and Infill policy growth scenarios, respectively. The Smart Growth policy converts 88% of natural lands and agriculture used by Business-as-usual, while Infill used only 40% of those lands. Given the historic rate of urban growth, 0.25%/year, and limited space available, the Infill scenario is recommended. While the data may differ, the use of an historic and future framework to track these three variables can be easily applied to other metropolitan areas.</p></abstract><funding-group><funding-statement>Funding for this project came from NSF award 0819493, California Public Interest Energy Research grants, PIER-500-08-006, PIER-500-09-037, and the Bill Lane Center for the American West, the Spatial History Project and the Wallenberg Foundation. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.</funding-statement></funding-group><counts><page-count count="9"></page-count></counts></article-meta></front></pmc><affiliations><list><country><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Californie</li></region></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Californie"><name sortKey="Thorne, James H" sort="Thorne, James H" uniqKey="Thorne J" first="James H." last="Thorne">James H. Thorne</name></region><name sortKey="Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H" sort="Bjorkman, Jacquelyn H" uniqKey="Bjorkman J" first="Jacquelyn H." last="Bjorkman">Jacquelyn H. Bjorkman</name><name sortKey="Santos, Maria J" sort="Santos, Maria J" uniqKey="Santos M" first="Maria J." last="Santos">Maria J. Santos</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Wicri/Agronomie/explor/SisAgriV1/Data/Ncbi/Merge
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000434 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Ncbi/Merge/biblio.hfd -nk 000434 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Wicri/Agronomie
|area= SisAgriV1
|flux= Ncbi
|étape= Merge
|type= RBID
|clé= PMC:3673918
|texte= Regional Assessment of Urban Impacts on Landcover and Open Space Finds a Smart Urban Growth Policy Performs Little Better than Business as Usual
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Ncbi/Merge/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:23755204" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Ncbi/Merge/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a SisAgriV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.28. |  |