Integrated assessments of global warming issues and an overview of project PHOENIX—A comprehensive approach
Identifieur interne : 000C23 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000C22; suivant : 000C24Integrated assessments of global warming issues and an overview of project PHOENIX—A comprehensive approach
Auteurs : Shunsuke Mori [Japon] ; Keigo Akimoto [Japon] ; Takashi Homma [Japon] ; Fuminori Sano [Japon] ; Junichiro Oda [Japon] ; Ayami Hayashi [Japon] ; Kiyoshi Dowaki [Japon] ; Toshimasa Tomoda [Japon]Source :
- IEEJ Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Engineering [ 1931-4973 ] ; 2006-11.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
Abstract
This paper presents a new integrated assessment model (IAM) approach to global warming issues and reviews the ongoing approach to Project PHOENIX—Paths toward Harmony Of Environment, Natural resources and Industry compleX, developed by the Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE). Existing integrated assessment approaches based on cost–benefit analysis calculate the potential costs under certain emission control policies, evaluating the warming damage in monetary terms and then exploring the preferable options. However, these approaches are not sufficient when we take into account the possibility of irreversible impacts, such as the shutdown of ocean thermohaline circulation and extinction of species. This project aims at providing integrated information and assessments for the global warming issues by gathering scientific information and by developing multimodels. For instance, the energy‐economics model DNE‐21 is expanded to generate the carbon emission path until 2200. A potential agricultural productivity model based on grid geographic information system (GIS) data is developed to assess the effect of climate change on crop production. DEARS, an intertemporal optimization multisector, multiregional, CGE energy‐economics model, is also developed to look at the effects of climate policy on industry sectors. Finally, we summarize the assessments and findings through the procedure in a ‘scoreboard’ for the assessment based on the expert judgments. © 2006 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Url:
DOI: 10.1002/tee.20081
Affiliations:
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Existing integrated assessment approaches based on cost–benefit analysis calculate the potential costs under certain emission control policies, evaluating the warming damage in monetary terms and then exploring the preferable options. However, these approaches are not sufficient when we take into account the possibility of irreversible impacts, such as the shutdown of ocean thermohaline circulation and extinction of species. This project aims at providing integrated information and assessments for the global warming issues by gathering scientific information and by developing multimodels. For instance, the energy‐economics model DNE‐21 is expanded to generate the carbon emission path until 2200. A potential agricultural productivity model based on grid geographic information system (GIS) data is developed to assess the effect of climate change on crop production. DEARS, an intertemporal optimization multisector, multiregional, CGE energy‐economics model, is also developed to look at the effects of climate policy on industry sectors. Finally, we summarize the assessments and findings through the procedure in a ‘scoreboard’ for the assessment based on the expert judgments. © 2006 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. 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