Use of wild bird surveillance, human case data and GIS spatial analysis for predicting spatial distributions of West Nile virus in Greece.
Identifieur interne : 000190 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000189; suivant : 000191Use of wild bird surveillance, human case data and GIS spatial analysis for predicting spatial distributions of West Nile virus in Greece.
Auteurs : George Valiakos [Grèce] ; Konstantinos Papaspyropoulos [Grèce] ; Alexios Giannakopoulos [Grèce] ; Periklis Birtsas [Grèce] ; Sotirios Tsiodras [Grèce] ; Michael R. Hutchings [Royaume-Uni] ; Vassiliki Spyrou [Grèce] ; Danai Pervanidou [Grèce] ; Labrini V. Athanasiou [Grèce] ; Nikolaos Papadopoulos [Grèce] ; Constantina Tsokana [Grèce] ; Agoritsa Baka [Grèce] ; Katerina Manolakou [Grèce] ; Dimitrios Chatzopoulos [Grèce] ; Marc Artois [France] ; Lisa Yon [Royaume-Uni] ; Duncan Hannant [Royaume-Uni] ; Liljana Petrovska [Royaume-Uni] ; Christos Hadjichristodoulou [Grèce] ; Charalambos Billinis [Grèce]Source :
- PloS one [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2014.
Descripteurs français
- Wicri :
- geographic : Grèce.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Animals, Animals, Wild, Birds (virology), Chickens (virology), Culicidae (virology), Female, Geographic Information Systems, Greece, Humans, Population Density, West Nile Fever (epidemiology), West Nile Fever (transmission), West Nile Fever (virology), West Nile virus (isolation & purification), West Nile virus (pathogenicity).
- MESH :
- geographic : Greece.
- epidemiology : West Nile Fever.
- isolation & purification : West Nile virus.
- pathogenicity : West Nile virus.
- transmission : West Nile Fever.
- virology : Birds, Chickens, Culicidae, West Nile Fever.
- Animals, Animals, Wild, Female, Geographic Information Systems, Humans, Population Density.
Abstract
West Nile Virus (WNV) is the causative agent of a vector-borne, zoonotic disease with a worldwide distribution. Recent expansion and introduction of WNV into new areas, including southern Europe, has been associated with severe disease in humans and equids, and has increased concerns regarding the need to prevent and control future WNV outbreaks. Since 2010, 524 confirmed human cases of the disease have been reported in Greece with greater than 10% mortality. Infected mosquitoes, wild birds, equids, and chickens have been detected and associated with human disease. The aim of our study was to establish a monitoring system with wild birds and reported human cases data using Geographical Information System (GIS). Potential distribution of WNV was modelled by combining wild bird serological surveillance data with environmental factors (e.g. elevation, slope, land use, vegetation density, temperature, precipitation indices, and population density). Local factors including areas of low altitude and proximity to water were important predictors of appearance of both human and wild bird cases (Odds Ratio = 1,001 95%CI = 0,723-1,386). Using GIS analysis, the identified risk factors were applied across Greece identifying the northern part of Greece (Macedonia, Thrace) western Greece and a number of Greek islands as being at highest risk of future outbreaks. The results of the analysis were evaluated and confirmed using the 161 reported human cases of the 2012 outbreak predicting correctly (Odds = 130/31 = 4,194 95%CI = 2,841-6,189) and more areas were identified for potential dispersion in the following years. Our approach verified that WNV risk can be modelled in a fast cost-effective way indicating high risk areas where prevention measures should be implemented in order to reduce the disease incidence.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0096935
PubMed: 24806216
Affiliations:
- France, Grèce, Royaume-Uni
- Angleterre, Nottinghamshire, Écosse
- Nottingham, Édimbourg
- Université de Nottingham
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Le document en format XML
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Hutchings</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Disease Systems, SRUC, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Disease Systems, SRUC, Edinburgh</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Édimbourg</settlement><region type="country">Écosse</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Spyrou, Vassiliki" sort="Spyrou, Vassiliki" uniqKey="Spyrou V" first="Vassiliki" last="Spyrou">Vassiliki Spyrou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Technological Education Institute of Thessaly, Larissa, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Technological Education Institute of Thessaly, Larissa</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Larissa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pervanidou, Danai" sort="Pervanidou, Danai" uniqKey="Pervanidou D" first="Danai" last="Pervanidou">Danai Pervanidou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Hellenic Center for Disease Control and Prevention (HCDCP) Ministry of Health, Athens, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Hellenic Center for Disease Control and Prevention (HCDCP) Ministry of Health, Athens</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Athens</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Athanasiou, Labrini V" sort="Athanasiou, Labrini V" uniqKey="Athanasiou L" first="Labrini V" last="Athanasiou">Labrini V. Athanasiou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Karditsa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Papadopoulos, Nikolaos" sort="Papadopoulos, Nikolaos" uniqKey="Papadopoulos N" first="Nikolaos" last="Papadopoulos">Nikolaos Papadopoulos</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Agriculture Crop Production and Rural Environment, University of Thessaly, Volos, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Agriculture Crop Production and Rural Environment, University of Thessaly, Volos</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Volos</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tsokana, Constantina" sort="Tsokana, Constantina" uniqKey="Tsokana C" first="Constantina" last="Tsokana">Constantina Tsokana</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Karditsa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Baka, Agoritsa" sort="Baka, Agoritsa" uniqKey="Baka A" first="Agoritsa" last="Baka">Agoritsa Baka</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Hellenic Center for Disease Control and Prevention (HCDCP) Ministry of Health, Athens, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Hellenic Center for Disease Control and Prevention (HCDCP) Ministry of Health, Athens</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Athens</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Manolakou, Katerina" sort="Manolakou, Katerina" uniqKey="Manolakou K" first="Katerina" last="Manolakou">Katerina Manolakou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Karditsa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chatzopoulos, Dimitrios" sort="Chatzopoulos, Dimitrios" uniqKey="Chatzopoulos D" first="Dimitrios" last="Chatzopoulos">Dimitrios Chatzopoulos</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Karditsa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Artois, Marc" sort="Artois, Marc" uniqKey="Artois M" first="Marc" last="Artois">Marc Artois</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>University of Lyon, VetAgro Sup, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>University of Lyon, VetAgro Sup</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>VetAgro Sup</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>VetAgro Sup</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yon, Lisa" sort="Yon, Lisa" uniqKey="Yon L" first="Lisa" last="Yon">Lisa Yon</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>School of Veterinary Medicine & Science, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Veterinary Medicine & Science, University of Nottingham, Nottingham</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Nottingham</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Nottingham</settlement><region type="nation">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Nottinghamshire</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hannant, Duncan" sort="Hannant, Duncan" uniqKey="Hannant D" first="Duncan" last="Hannant">Duncan Hannant</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>School of Veterinary Medicine & Science, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Veterinary Medicine & Science, University of Nottingham, Nottingham</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Nottingham</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Nottingham</settlement><region type="nation">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Nottinghamshire</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Petrovska, Liljana" sort="Petrovska, Liljana" uniqKey="Petrovska L" first="Liljana" last="Petrovska">Liljana Petrovska</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency - Weybridge, United Kingdom.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency - Weybridge</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hadjichristodoulou, Christos" sort="Hadjichristodoulou, Christos" uniqKey="Hadjichristodoulou C" first="Christos" last="Hadjichristodoulou">Christos Hadjichristodoulou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Medicine, University of Thessaly, Larissa, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Medicine, University of Thessaly, Larissa</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Larissa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Billinis, Charalambos" sort="Billinis, Charalambos" uniqKey="Billinis C" first="Charalambos" last="Billinis">Charalambos Billinis</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Greece; Department of Biomedicine, Institute for Research and Technology of Thessaly, Centre For Research and Technology Hellas, Larissa, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Greece; Department of Biomedicine, Institute for Research and Technology of Thessaly, Centre For Research and Technology Hellas, Larissa</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Larissa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2014">2014</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:24806216</idno><idno type="pmid">24806216</idno><idno type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0096935</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Corpus">000141</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PubMed" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000141</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PubMed/Curation">000141</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" 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Biomedicine, Institute for Research and Technology of Thessaly, Centre For Research and Technology Hellas, Larissa, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Greece; Department of Biomedicine, Institute for Research and Technology of Thessaly, Centre For Research and Technology Hellas, Larissa</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Larissa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Papaspyropoulos, Konstantinos" sort="Papaspyropoulos, Konstantinos" uniqKey="Papaspyropoulos K" first="Konstantinos" last="Papaspyropoulos">Konstantinos Papaspyropoulos</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Greece; Research Division, Hunting Federation of Macedonia and Thrace, Thessaloniki, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Greece; Research Division, Hunting Federation of Macedonia and Thrace, Thessaloniki</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Thessaloniki</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Giannakopoulos, Alexios" sort="Giannakopoulos, Alexios" uniqKey="Giannakopoulos A" first="Alexios" last="Giannakopoulos">Alexios Giannakopoulos</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Karditsa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Birtsas, Periklis" sort="Birtsas, Periklis" uniqKey="Birtsas P" first="Periklis" last="Birtsas">Periklis Birtsas</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Technological Education Institute of Thessaly, Larissa, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Technological Education Institute of Thessaly, Larissa</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Larissa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tsiodras, Sotirios" sort="Tsiodras, Sotirios" uniqKey="Tsiodras S" first="Sotirios" last="Tsiodras">Sotirios Tsiodras</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Hellenic Center for Disease Control and Prevention (HCDCP) Ministry of Health, Athens, Greece; National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Faculty of Medicine, Athens, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Hellenic Center for Disease Control and Prevention (HCDCP) Ministry of Health, Athens, Greece; National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Faculty of Medicine, Athens</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Athens</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hutchings, Michael R" sort="Hutchings, Michael R" uniqKey="Hutchings M" first="Michael R" last="Hutchings">Michael R. Hutchings</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Disease Systems, SRUC, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Disease Systems, SRUC, Edinburgh</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Édimbourg</settlement><region type="country">Écosse</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Spyrou, Vassiliki" sort="Spyrou, Vassiliki" uniqKey="Spyrou V" first="Vassiliki" last="Spyrou">Vassiliki Spyrou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Technological Education Institute of Thessaly, Larissa, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Technological Education Institute of Thessaly, Larissa</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Larissa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Pervanidou, Danai" sort="Pervanidou, Danai" uniqKey="Pervanidou D" first="Danai" last="Pervanidou">Danai Pervanidou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Hellenic Center for Disease Control and Prevention (HCDCP) Ministry of Health, Athens, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Hellenic Center for Disease Control and Prevention (HCDCP) Ministry of Health, Athens</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Athens</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Athanasiou, Labrini V" sort="Athanasiou, Labrini V" uniqKey="Athanasiou L" first="Labrini V" last="Athanasiou">Labrini V. Athanasiou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Karditsa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Papadopoulos, Nikolaos" sort="Papadopoulos, Nikolaos" uniqKey="Papadopoulos N" first="Nikolaos" last="Papadopoulos">Nikolaos Papadopoulos</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Agriculture Crop Production and Rural Environment, University of Thessaly, Volos, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Agriculture Crop Production and Rural Environment, University of Thessaly, Volos</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Volos</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tsokana, Constantina" sort="Tsokana, Constantina" uniqKey="Tsokana C" first="Constantina" last="Tsokana">Constantina Tsokana</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Karditsa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Baka, Agoritsa" sort="Baka, Agoritsa" uniqKey="Baka A" first="Agoritsa" last="Baka">Agoritsa Baka</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Hellenic Center for Disease Control and Prevention (HCDCP) Ministry of Health, Athens, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Hellenic Center for Disease Control and Prevention (HCDCP) Ministry of Health, Athens</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Athens</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Manolakou, Katerina" sort="Manolakou, Katerina" uniqKey="Manolakou K" first="Katerina" last="Manolakou">Katerina Manolakou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Karditsa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chatzopoulos, Dimitrios" sort="Chatzopoulos, Dimitrios" uniqKey="Chatzopoulos D" first="Dimitrios" last="Chatzopoulos">Dimitrios Chatzopoulos</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Karditsa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Artois, Marc" sort="Artois, Marc" uniqKey="Artois M" first="Marc" last="Artois">Marc Artois</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>University of Lyon, VetAgro Sup, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>University of Lyon, VetAgro Sup</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>VetAgro Sup</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>VetAgro Sup</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yon, Lisa" sort="Yon, Lisa" uniqKey="Yon L" first="Lisa" last="Yon">Lisa Yon</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>School of Veterinary Medicine & Science, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Veterinary Medicine & Science, University of Nottingham, Nottingham</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Nottingham</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Nottingham</settlement><region type="nation">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Nottinghamshire</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hannant, Duncan" sort="Hannant, Duncan" uniqKey="Hannant D" first="Duncan" last="Hannant">Duncan Hannant</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>School of Veterinary Medicine & Science, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Veterinary Medicine & Science, University of Nottingham, Nottingham</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Nottingham</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Nottingham</settlement><region type="nation">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Nottinghamshire</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Petrovska, Liljana" sort="Petrovska, Liljana" uniqKey="Petrovska L" first="Liljana" last="Petrovska">Liljana Petrovska</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency - Weybridge, United Kingdom.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency - Weybridge</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hadjichristodoulou, Christos" sort="Hadjichristodoulou, Christos" uniqKey="Hadjichristodoulou C" first="Christos" last="Hadjichristodoulou">Christos Hadjichristodoulou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Medicine, University of Thessaly, Larissa, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Medicine, University of Thessaly, Larissa</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Larissa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Billinis, Charalambos" sort="Billinis, Charalambos" uniqKey="Billinis C" first="Charalambos" last="Billinis">Charalambos Billinis</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Greece; Department of Biomedicine, Institute for Research and Technology of Thessaly, Centre For Research and Technology Hellas, Larissa, Greece.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Grèce</country><wicri:regionArea>Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Greece; Department of Biomedicine, Institute for Research and Technology of Thessaly, Centre For Research and Technology Hellas, Larissa</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Larissa</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PloS one</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2014" type="published">2014</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Animals</term><term>Animals, Wild</term><term>Birds (virology)</term><term>Chickens (virology)</term><term>Culicidae (virology)</term><term>Female</term><term>Geographic Information Systems</term><term>Greece</term><term>Humans</term><term>Population Density</term><term>West Nile Fever (epidemiology)</term><term>West Nile Fever (transmission)</term><term>West Nile Fever (virology)</term><term>West Nile virus (isolation & purification)</term><term>West Nile virus (pathogenicity)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" type="geographic" xml:lang="en"><term>Greece</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>West Nile Fever</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="isolation & purification" xml:lang="en"><term>West Nile virus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="pathogenicity" xml:lang="en"><term>West Nile virus</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="transmission" xml:lang="en"><term>West Nile Fever</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virology" xml:lang="en"><term>Birds</term><term>Chickens</term><term>Culicidae</term><term>West Nile Fever</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Animals</term><term>Animals, Wild</term><term>Female</term><term>Geographic Information Systems</term><term>Humans</term><term>Population Density</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="geographic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grèce</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">West Nile Virus (WNV) is the causative agent of a vector-borne, zoonotic disease with a worldwide distribution. Recent expansion and introduction of WNV into new areas, including southern Europe, has been associated with severe disease in humans and equids, and has increased concerns regarding the need to prevent and control future WNV outbreaks. Since 2010, 524 confirmed human cases of the disease have been reported in Greece with greater than 10% mortality. Infected mosquitoes, wild birds, equids, and chickens have been detected and associated with human disease. The aim of our study was to establish a monitoring system with wild birds and reported human cases data using Geographical Information System (GIS). Potential distribution of WNV was modelled by combining wild bird serological surveillance data with environmental factors (e.g. elevation, slope, land use, vegetation density, temperature, precipitation indices, and population density). Local factors including areas of low altitude and proximity to water were important predictors of appearance of both human and wild bird cases (Odds Ratio = 1,001 95%CI = 0,723-1,386). Using GIS analysis, the identified risk factors were applied across Greece identifying the northern part of Greece (Macedonia, Thrace) western Greece and a number of Greek islands as being at highest risk of future outbreaks. The results of the analysis were evaluated and confirmed using the 161 reported human cases of the 2012 outbreak predicting correctly (Odds = 130/31 = 4,194 95%CI = 2,841-6,189) and more areas were identified for potential dispersion in the following years. Our approach verified that WNV risk can be modelled in a fast cost-effective way indicating high risk areas where prevention measures should be implemented in order to reduce the disease incidence.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>France</li><li>Grèce</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li></country><region><li>Angleterre</li><li>Nottinghamshire</li><li>Écosse</li></region><settlement><li>Nottingham</li><li>Édimbourg</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de Nottingham</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Grèce"><noRegion><name sortKey="Valiakos, George" sort="Valiakos, George" uniqKey="Valiakos G" first="George" last="Valiakos">George Valiakos</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Athanasiou, Labrini V" sort="Athanasiou, Labrini V" uniqKey="Athanasiou L" first="Labrini V" last="Athanasiou">Labrini V. Athanasiou</name><name sortKey="Baka, Agoritsa" sort="Baka, Agoritsa" uniqKey="Baka A" first="Agoritsa" last="Baka">Agoritsa Baka</name><name sortKey="Billinis, Charalambos" sort="Billinis, Charalambos" uniqKey="Billinis C" first="Charalambos" last="Billinis">Charalambos Billinis</name><name sortKey="Birtsas, Periklis" sort="Birtsas, Periklis" uniqKey="Birtsas P" first="Periklis" last="Birtsas">Periklis Birtsas</name><name sortKey="Chatzopoulos, Dimitrios" sort="Chatzopoulos, Dimitrios" uniqKey="Chatzopoulos D" first="Dimitrios" last="Chatzopoulos">Dimitrios Chatzopoulos</name><name sortKey="Giannakopoulos, Alexios" sort="Giannakopoulos, Alexios" uniqKey="Giannakopoulos A" first="Alexios" last="Giannakopoulos">Alexios Giannakopoulos</name><name sortKey="Hadjichristodoulou, Christos" sort="Hadjichristodoulou, Christos" uniqKey="Hadjichristodoulou C" first="Christos" last="Hadjichristodoulou">Christos Hadjichristodoulou</name><name sortKey="Manolakou, Katerina" sort="Manolakou, Katerina" uniqKey="Manolakou K" first="Katerina" last="Manolakou">Katerina Manolakou</name><name sortKey="Papadopoulos, Nikolaos" sort="Papadopoulos, Nikolaos" uniqKey="Papadopoulos N" first="Nikolaos" last="Papadopoulos">Nikolaos Papadopoulos</name><name sortKey="Papaspyropoulos, Konstantinos" sort="Papaspyropoulos, Konstantinos" uniqKey="Papaspyropoulos K" first="Konstantinos" last="Papaspyropoulos">Konstantinos Papaspyropoulos</name><name sortKey="Pervanidou, Danai" sort="Pervanidou, Danai" uniqKey="Pervanidou D" first="Danai" last="Pervanidou">Danai Pervanidou</name><name sortKey="Spyrou, Vassiliki" sort="Spyrou, Vassiliki" uniqKey="Spyrou V" first="Vassiliki" last="Spyrou">Vassiliki Spyrou</name><name sortKey="Tsiodras, Sotirios" sort="Tsiodras, Sotirios" uniqKey="Tsiodras S" first="Sotirios" last="Tsiodras">Sotirios Tsiodras</name><name sortKey="Tsokana, Constantina" sort="Tsokana, Constantina" uniqKey="Tsokana C" first="Constantina" last="Tsokana">Constantina Tsokana</name></country><country name="Royaume-Uni"><region name="Écosse"><name sortKey="Hutchings, Michael R" sort="Hutchings, Michael R" uniqKey="Hutchings M" first="Michael R" last="Hutchings">Michael R. Hutchings</name></region><name sortKey="Hannant, Duncan" sort="Hannant, Duncan" uniqKey="Hannant D" first="Duncan" last="Hannant">Duncan Hannant</name><name sortKey="Petrovska, Liljana" sort="Petrovska, Liljana" uniqKey="Petrovska L" first="Liljana" last="Petrovska">Liljana Petrovska</name><name sortKey="Yon, Lisa" sort="Yon, Lisa" uniqKey="Yon L" first="Lisa" last="Yon">Lisa Yon</name></country><country name="France"><noRegion><name sortKey="Artois, Marc" sort="Artois, Marc" uniqKey="Artois M" first="Marc" last="Artois">Marc Artois</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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