Integrating economic data with spatial biophysical data to analyse profitability and risks of wheat production on a regional basis
Identifieur interne : 000B06 ( Istex/Curation ); précédent : 000B05; suivant : 000B07Integrating economic data with spatial biophysical data to analyse profitability and risks of wheat production on a regional basis
Auteurs : Lindsay S. Saunders [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; Trevor H. Webb [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; James R. F. Barringer [Nouvelle-Zélande]Source :
- Agricultural Systems [ 0308-521X ] ; 1997.
Abstract
Production risks are an important factor in agricultural land use decision making due to the relative uncertainty associated with climatic variability, enterprise performance, and market returns. Profitability and risks of wheat production on the Canterbury Plains are related to variability in climatic, production, and economic factors. A spreadsheet-based risk analysis program (@RISK) was used to integrate data sets within a risk framework for wheat production. This is shown to be an effective tool for evaluating alternative management practices in relation to profitability and risk. Autumn sowing and irrigation were found to improve predicted economic returns whilst reducing risk when compared to commonly practised spring sowing of wheat under dryland conditions. Spring sowing is reliant on irrigation to reduce risk. Predictions that autumn-sown wheat under dryland conditions will achieve similar yields to irrigated spring-sown wheat indicate that increasing the proportion of autumn-sown wheat would promote more efficient use of scarce water resources. A geographic information System was used to identify and represent visually the spatial distribution of variability in wheat yields and the risk to economic returns. The authors foresee future application of these techniques to sustainable resource management issues because the integration of climate, soils, water balance, and land use performance data sets within a quantitative framework that accounts for social, economic, and environmental effects through time and space is central to resource management decision making.
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DOI: 10.1016/S0308-521X(97)00024-3
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Profitability and risks of wheat production on the Canterbury Plains are related to variability in climatic, production, and economic factors. A spreadsheet-based risk analysis program (@RISK) was used to integrate data sets within a risk framework for wheat production. This is shown to be an effective tool for evaluating alternative management practices in relation to profitability and risk. Autumn sowing and irrigation were found to improve predicted economic returns whilst reducing risk when compared to commonly practised spring sowing of wheat under dryland conditions. Spring sowing is reliant on irrigation to reduce risk. Predictions that autumn-sown wheat under dryland conditions will achieve similar yields to irrigated spring-sown wheat indicate that increasing the proportion of autumn-sown wheat would promote more efficient use of scarce water resources. A geographic information System was used to identify and represent visually the spatial distribution of variability in wheat yields and the risk to economic returns. The authors foresee future application of these techniques to sustainable resource management issues because the integration of climate, soils, water balance, and land use performance data sets within a quantitative framework that accounts for social, economic, and environmental effects through time and space is central to resource management decision making.</div></front></TEI></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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