Agriculture and resource availability in a changing world: The role of irrigation
Identifieur interne : 001332 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 001331; suivant : 001333Agriculture and resource availability in a changing world: The role of irrigation
Auteurs : Timm Sauer ; Petr Havlík ; Uwe A. Schneider ; Erwin Schmid ; Georg Kindermann ; Michael ObersteinerSource :
- Water Resources Research [ 0043-1397 ] ; 2010-06.
Abstract
Fertile land and freshwater constitute two of the most fundamental resources for food production. These resources are affected by environmental, political, economic, and technical developments. Regional impacts may transmit to the world through increased trade. With a global forest and agricultural sector model, we quantify the impacts of increased demand for food due to population growth and economic development on potential land and water use until 2030. In particular, we investigate producer adaptation regarding crop and irrigation choice, agricultural market adjustments, and changes in the values of land and water. In the context of resource sustainability and food security, this study accounts for the spatial and operational heterogeneity of irrigation management to globally assess agricultural land and water use. Agricultural responses to population and economic growth include considerable increases in irrigated area and water use but reductions in the average water intensity. Different irrigation systems are preferred under different exogenous biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. Negligence of these adaptations would bias the burden of development on land and water scarcity. Without technical progress, substantial price adjustments for land, water, and food would be required to equilibrate supply and demand.
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DOI: 10.1029/2009WR007729
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Schneider</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Centre of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Hamburg, Germany</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Forestry Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Schmid, Erwin" sort="Schmid, Erwin" uniqKey="Schmid E" first="Erwin" last="Schmid">Erwin Schmid</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Institute of Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Wien, Austria</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kindermann, Georg" sort="Kindermann, Georg" uniqKey="Kindermann G" first="Georg" last="Kindermann">Georg Kindermann</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Forestry Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Obersteiner, Michael" sort="Obersteiner, Michael" uniqKey="Obersteiner M" first="Michael" last="Obersteiner">Michael Obersteiner</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Forestry Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j">Water Resources Research</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">Water Resour. 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Regional impacts may transmit to the world through increased trade. With a global forest and agricultural sector model, we quantify the impacts of increased demand for food due to population growth and economic development on potential land and water use until 2030. In particular, we investigate producer adaptation regarding crop and irrigation choice, agricultural market adjustments, and changes in the values of land and water. In the context of resource sustainability and food security, this study accounts for the spatial and operational heterogeneity of irrigation management to globally assess agricultural land and water use. Agricultural responses to population and economic growth include considerable increases in irrigated area and water use but reductions in the average water intensity. Different irrigation systems are preferred under different exogenous biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. Negligence of these adaptations would bias the burden of development on land and water scarcity. Without technical progress, substantial price adjustments for land, water, and food would be required to equilibrate supply and demand.</div></front></TEI><istex><corpusName>wiley</corpusName><author><json:item><name>Timm Sauer</name><affiliations><json:string>Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany</json:string><json:string>Centre of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Hamburg, Germany</json:string><json:string>International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany</json:string><json:string>E-mail: timm.sauer@zmaw.de</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Petr Havlík</name><affiliations><json:string>Forestry Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Uwe A. 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A.</givenNames> <familyName>Schneider</familyName></author>, <author><givenNames>E.</givenNames> <familyName>Schmid</familyName></author>, <author><givenNames>G.</givenNames> <familyName>Kindermann</familyName></author>, and <author><givenNames>M.</givenNames> <familyName>Obersteiner</familyName></author> (<pubYear year="2010">2010</pubYear>), <articleTitle>Agriculture and resource availability in a changing world: The role of irrigation</articleTitle>, <journalTitle>Water Resour. Res.</journalTitle>, <vol>46</vol>, W06503, doi:<accessionId ref="info:doi/10.1029/2009WR007729">10.1029/2009WR007729</accessionId>.</citation></selfCitationGroup><linkGroup><link type="toTypesetVersion" href="file:WRCR.WRCR12175.pdf"></link></linkGroup></publicationMeta><contentMeta><countGroup><count type="wordTotal" number="9500"></count><count type="figureTotal" number="6"></count><count type="tableTotal" number="12"></count></countGroup><titleGroup><title type="main">Agriculture and resource availability in a changing world: The role of irrigation</title><title type="short">AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES</title><title type="shortAuthors">Sauer <i>et al</i>.</title></titleGroup><creators><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="wrcr12175-cr-0001" affiliationRef="#wrcr12175-aff-0001 #wrcr12175-aff-0002 #wrcr12175-aff-0003"><personName><givenNames>Timm</givenNames> <familyName>Sauer</familyName></personName><contactDetails><email normalForm="timm.sauer@zmaw.de">timm.sauer@zmaw.de</email></contactDetails></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="wrcr12175-cr-0002" affiliationRef="#wrcr12175-aff-0004"><personName><givenNames>Petr</givenNames> <familyName>Havlík</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="wrcr12175-cr-0003" affiliationRef="#wrcr12175-aff-0001 #wrcr12175-aff-0002 #wrcr12175-aff-0004"><personName><givenNames>Uwe A.</givenNames> <familyName>Schneider</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="wrcr12175-cr-0004" affiliationRef="#wrcr12175-aff-0005"><personName><givenNames>Erwin</givenNames> <familyName>Schmid</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="wrcr12175-cr-0005" affiliationRef="#wrcr12175-aff-0004"><personName><givenNames>Georg</givenNames> <familyName>Kindermann</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="wrcr12175-cr-0006" affiliationRef="#wrcr12175-aff-0004"><personName><givenNames>Michael</givenNames> <familyName>Obersteiner</familyName></personName></creator></creators><affiliationGroup><affiliation countryCode="DE" type="organization" xml:id="wrcr12175-aff-0001"><orgDiv>Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change</orgDiv><orgName>Hamburg University</orgName><address><city>Hamburg</city><country>Germany</country></address></affiliation><affiliation countryCode="DE" type="organization" xml:id="wrcr12175-aff-0002"><orgName>Centre of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences</orgName><address><city>Hamburg</city><country>Germany</country></address></affiliation><affiliation countryCode="DE" type="organization" xml:id="wrcr12175-aff-0003"><orgName>International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling</orgName><address><city>Hamburg</city><country>Germany</country></address></affiliation><affiliation countryCode="AT" type="organization" xml:id="wrcr12175-aff-0004"><orgDiv>Forestry Program</orgDiv><orgName>International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis</orgName><address><city>Laxenburg</city><country>Austria</country></address></affiliation><affiliation countryCode="AT" type="organization" xml:id="wrcr12175-aff-0005"><orgDiv>Institute of Sustainable Economic Development</orgDiv><orgName>University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences</orgName><address><city>Wien</city><country>Austria</country></address></affiliation></affiliationGroup><keywordGroup type="author"><keyword xml:id="wrcr12175-kwd-0001">irrigation methods</keyword><keyword xml:id="wrcr12175-kwd-0002">water use intensity</keyword><keyword xml:id="wrcr12175-kwd-0003">agricultural adaptation</keyword><keyword xml:id="wrcr12175-kwd-0004">partial equilibrium model</keyword><keyword xml:id="wrcr12175-kwd-0005">food security</keyword><keyword xml:id="wrcr12175-kwd-0006">land scarcity</keyword></keywordGroup><supportingInformation><supportingInfoItem><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="text/plain" href="urn-x:wiley:00431397:media:wrcr12175:wrcr12175-sup-0001-t01"></mediaResource><caption>Tab‐delimited Table 1.</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="text/plain" href="urn-x:wiley:00431397:media:wrcr12175:wrcr12175-sup-0002-t02"></mediaResource><caption>Tab‐delimited Table 2.</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="text/plain" href="urn-x:wiley:00431397:media:wrcr12175:wrcr12175-sup-0003-t03"></mediaResource><caption>Tab‐delimited Table 3.</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="text/plain" href="urn-x:wiley:00431397:media:wrcr12175:wrcr12175-sup-0004-t04"></mediaResource><caption>Tab‐delimited Table 4.</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="text/plain" href="urn-x:wiley:00431397:media:wrcr12175:wrcr12175-sup-0005-t05"></mediaResource><caption>Tab‐delimited Table 5.</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="text/plain" href="urn-x:wiley:00431397:media:wrcr12175:wrcr12175-sup-0006-t06"></mediaResource><caption>Tab‐delimited Table 6.</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="text/plain" href="urn-x:wiley:00431397:media:wrcr12175:wrcr12175-sup-0007-t07"></mediaResource><caption>Tab‐delimited Table 7.</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="text/plain" href="urn-x:wiley:00431397:media:wrcr12175:wrcr12175-sup-0008-t08"></mediaResource><caption>Tab‐delimited Table 8.</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="text/plain" href="urn-x:wiley:00431397:media:wrcr12175:wrcr12175-sup-0009-t09"></mediaResource><caption>Tab‐delimited Table 9.</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="text/plain" href="urn-x:wiley:00431397:media:wrcr12175:wrcr12175-sup-0010-t10"></mediaResource><caption>Tab‐delimited Table 10.</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="text/plain" href="urn-x:wiley:00431397:media:wrcr12175:wrcr12175-sup-0011-t11"></mediaResource><caption>Tab‐delimited Table 11.</caption></supportingInfoItem><supportingInfoItem><mediaResource alt="supplementary data" mimeType="text/plain" href="urn-x:wiley:00431397:media:wrcr12175:wrcr12175-sup-0012-t12"></mediaResource><caption>Tab‐delimited Table 12.</caption></supportingInfoItem></supportingInformation><abstractGroup><abstract type="main"><p xml:id="wrcr12175-para-0001" label="1">Fertile land and freshwater constitute two of the most fundamental resources for food production. These resources are affected by environmental, political, economic, and technical developments. Regional impacts may transmit to the world through increased trade. With a global forest and agricultural sector model, we quantify the impacts of increased demand for food due to population growth and economic development on potential land and water use until 2030. In particular, we investigate producer adaptation regarding crop and irrigation choice, agricultural market adjustments, and changes in the values of land and water. In the context of resource sustainability and food security, this study accounts for the spatial and operational heterogeneity of irrigation management to globally assess agricultural land and water use. Agricultural responses to population and economic growth include considerable increases in irrigated area and water use but reductions in the average water intensity. Different irrigation systems are preferred under different exogenous biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. Negligence of these adaptations would bias the burden of development on land and water scarcity. Without technical progress, substantial price adjustments for land, water, and food would be required to equilibrate supply and demand.</p></abstract></abstractGroup></contentMeta></header></component></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo lang="en"><title>Agriculture and resource availability in a changing world: The role of irrigation</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated" lang="en"><title>AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" contentType="CDATA" lang="en"><title>Agriculture and resource availability in a changing world: The role of irrigation</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Timm</namePart><namePart type="family">Sauer</namePart><affiliation>Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany</affiliation><affiliation>Centre of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Hamburg, Germany</affiliation><affiliation>International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: timm.sauer@zmaw.de</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Petr</namePart><namePart type="family">Havlík</namePart><affiliation>Forestry Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Uwe A.</namePart><namePart type="family">Schneider</namePart><affiliation>Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany</affiliation><affiliation>Centre of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Hamburg, Germany</affiliation><affiliation>Forestry Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Erwin</namePart><namePart type="family">Schmid</namePart><affiliation>Institute of Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Wien, Austria</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Georg</namePart><namePart type="family">Kindermann</namePart><affiliation>Forestry Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Michael</namePart><namePart type="family">Obersteiner</namePart><affiliation>Forestry Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource><genre type="article" displayLabel="article"></genre><originInfo><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">2010-06</dateIssued><dateCaptured encoding="w3cdtf">2009-01-13</dateCaptured><dateValid encoding="w3cdtf">2010-01-04</dateValid><edition>Sauer, T., P. Havlík, U. A. Schneider, E. Schmid, G. Kindermann, and M. Obersteiner (2010), Agriculture and resource availability in a changing world: The role of irrigation, Water Resour. Res., 46, W06503, doi:10.1029/2009WR007729.</edition><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2010</copyrightDate></originInfo><language><languageTerm type="code" authority="rfc3066">en</languageTerm><languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm></language><physicalDescription><internetMediaType>text/html</internetMediaType><extent unit="figures">6</extent><extent unit="tables">12</extent><extent unit="words">9500</extent></physicalDescription><abstract>Fertile land and freshwater constitute two of the most fundamental resources for food production. These resources are affected by environmental, political, economic, and technical developments. Regional impacts may transmit to the world through increased trade. With a global forest and agricultural sector model, we quantify the impacts of increased demand for food due to population growth and economic development on potential land and water use until 2030. In particular, we investigate producer adaptation regarding crop and irrigation choice, agricultural market adjustments, and changes in the values of land and water. In the context of resource sustainability and food security, this study accounts for the spatial and operational heterogeneity of irrigation management to globally assess agricultural land and water use. Agricultural responses to population and economic growth include considerable increases in irrigated area and water use but reductions in the average water intensity. Different irrigation systems are preferred under different exogenous biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. Negligence of these adaptations would bias the burden of development on land and water scarcity. Without technical progress, substantial price adjustments for land, water, and food would be required to equilibrate supply and demand.</abstract><note type="additional physical form">Tab‐delimited Table 1.Tab‐delimited Table 2.Tab‐delimited Table 3.Tab‐delimited Table 4.Tab‐delimited Table 5.Tab‐delimited Table 6.Tab‐delimited Table 7.Tab‐delimited Table 8.Tab‐delimited Table 9.Tab‐delimited Table 10.Tab‐delimited Table 11.Tab‐delimited Table 12.</note><subject><genre>keywords</genre><topic>irrigation methods</topic><topic>water use intensity</topic><topic>agricultural adaptation</topic><topic>partial equilibrium model</topic><topic>food security</topic><topic>land scarcity</topic></subject><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Water Resources Research</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated"><title>Water Resour. Res.</title></titleInfo><genre type="journal">journal</genre><subject><genre>index-terms</genre><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0400">BIOGEOSCIENCES</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0402">Agricultural systems</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/0466">Modeling</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1200">GEODESY AND GRAVITY</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1225">Global change from geodesy</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1600">GLOBAL CHANGE</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1630">Impacts of global change</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1800">HYDROLOGY</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1842">Irrigation</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1880">Water management</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1894">Instruments and techniques: modeling</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1900">INFORMATICS</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/1952">Modeling</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4300">NATURAL HAZARDS</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/4321">Climate impact</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/6300">POLICY SCIENCES</topic><topic authorityURI="http://psi.agu.org/taxonomy5/6334">Regional planning</topic></subject><subject><genre>article-category</genre><topic>Regular Article</topic></subject><identifier type="ISSN">0043-1397</identifier><identifier type="eISSN">1944-7973</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1002/(ISSN)1944-7973</identifier><identifier type="CODEN">WRERAQ</identifier><identifier type="PublisherID">WRCR</identifier><part><date>2010</date><detail type="volume"><caption>vol.</caption><number>46</number></detail><detail type="issue"><caption>no.</caption><number>6</number></detail><extent unit="pages"><start>n/a</start><end>n/a</end><total>12</total></extent></part></relatedItem><identifier type="istex">45E757C309574AD449055DF4CCCEAB2CC92507C5</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1029/2009WR007729</identifier><identifier type="ArticleID">2009WR007729</identifier><accessCondition type="use and reproduction" contentType="copyright">Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.</accessCondition><recordInfo><recordContentSource>WILEY</recordContentSource></recordInfo></mods></metadata><serie></serie></istex></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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