Prospective analysis of the invasive potential of the European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) in California
Identifieur interne : 001001 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 001000; suivant : 001002Prospective analysis of the invasive potential of the European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) in California
Auteurs : Andrew P. Gutierrez ; Luigi Ponti ; Monica L. Cooper ; Gianni Gilioli ; Johann Baumg Rtner ; Carlo DusoSource :
- Agricultural and Forest Entomology [ 1461-9555 ] ; 2012-08.
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Abstract
1 The polyphagous European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) is the principal native pest of grape berries in the Palearctic region. It was found in Napa County, California, in 2009, and it has subsequently been recorded in an additional nine counties, despite an ongoing eradication programme. The present study aimed to assess prospectively its potential geographical distribution and relative abundance in California and the continental U.S.A. A subsidiary goal was to provide explanation for timing control measures. 2 Data from the European literature were used to formulate and parameterize a holistic physiologically‐based demographic model for L. botrana. This model was linked to an extant mechanistic model of grapevine phenology, growth and development that provides the bottom‐up effects of fruiting phenology, age and abundance on L. botrana dynamics. Fruit age affects larval developmental rates, and has carryover effects on pupal development and adult fecundity. Also included in the model were the effects of temperature on developmental, survival and fecundity rates. 3 Observed daily weather data were used to simulate the potential distribution of the moth in California, and the continental U.S.A. The relative total number of pupae per vine per year was used as the metric of favourability at all locations. The simulation data were mapped using grass gis (http://grass.osgeo.org/). 4 The model predicts L. botrana can spread statewide with the highest populations expected in the hotter regions of southern California and the lower half of the Central Valley. In the U.S.A., areas of highest favourability include south Texas, and much of the southeast U.S.A. 5 The effects of a warmer climate on pest abundance were explored by increasing observed mean temperatures 2° and 3 °C. L. botrana abundance is expected to increase in northern California and in the agriculturally rich Central Valley but to decrease in the hot deserts of southern California where summer temperatures would approach its upper thermal limit. 6 Analysis of the timing of mating disruption pheromone for control of L. botrana suggests the greatest benefit would accrue by targeting adults emerging from winter diapause pupae and the flight of first summer adults.
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DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-9563.2011.00566.x
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It was found in Napa County, California, in 2009, and it has subsequently been recorded in an additional nine counties, despite an ongoing eradication programme. The present study aimed to assess prospectively its potential geographical distribution and relative abundance in California and the continental U.S.A. A subsidiary goal was to provide explanation for timing control measures. 2 Data from the European literature were used to formulate and parameterize a holistic physiologically‐based demographic model for L. botrana. This model was linked to an extant mechanistic model of grapevine phenology, growth and development that provides the bottom‐up effects of fruiting phenology, age and abundance on L. botrana dynamics. Fruit age affects larval developmental rates, and has carryover effects on pupal development and adult fecundity. Also included in the model were the effects of temperature on developmental, survival and fecundity rates. 3 Observed daily weather data were used to simulate the potential distribution of the moth in California, and the continental U.S.A. The relative total number of pupae per vine per year was used as the metric of favourability at all locations. The simulation data were mapped using grass gis (http://grass.osgeo.org/). 4 The model predicts L. botrana can spread statewide with the highest populations expected in the hotter regions of southern California and the lower half of the Central Valley. In the U.S.A., areas of highest favourability include south Texas, and much of the southeast U.S.A. 5 The effects of a warmer climate on pest abundance were explored by increasing observed mean temperatures 2° and 3 °C. L. botrana abundance is expected to increase in northern California and in the agriculturally rich Central Valley but to decrease in the hot deserts of southern California where summer temperatures would approach its upper thermal limit. 6 Analysis of the timing of mating disruption pheromone for control of L. botrana suggests the greatest benefit would accrue by targeting adults emerging from winter diapause pupae and the flight of first summer adults.</div></front></TEI><istex><corpusName>wiley</corpusName><author><json:item><name>Andrew P. 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Also included in the model were the effects of temperature on developmental, survival and fecundity rates. 3 Observed daily weather data were used to simulate the potential distribution of the moth in California, and the continental U.S.A. The relative total number of pupae per vine per year was used as the metric of favourability at all locations. The simulation data were mapped using grass gis (http://grass.osgeo.org/). 4 The model predicts L. botrana can spread statewide with the highest populations expected in the hotter regions of southern California and the lower half of the Central Valley. In the U.S.A., areas of highest favourability include south Texas, and much of the southeast U.S.A. 5 The effects of a warmer climate on pest abundance were explored by increasing observed mean temperatures 2° and 3 °C. 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Agricultural and Forest Entomology © 2012 The Royal Entomological Society</p></availability><date>2012</date></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct type="inbook"><analytic><title level="a" type="main" xml:lang="en">Prospective analysis of the invasive potential of the European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) in California</title><author xml:id="author-1"><persName><forename type="first">Andrew P.</forename><surname>Gutierrez</surname></persName><email>casas.global@berkeley.edu</email><affiliation>Center for the Analysis of Sustainable Agricultural Systems (CASAS Global NGO), 37 Arlington Avenue, Kensington, CA 94707, U.S.A.</affiliation><affiliation>Division of Ecosystem Science, College of Natural Resources, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720‐3114, U.S.A.</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-2"><persName><forename type="first">Luigi</forename><surname>Ponti</surname></persName><affiliation>Center for the Analysis of Sustainable Agricultural Systems (CASAS Global NGO), 37 Arlington Avenue, Kensington, CA 94707, U.S.A.</affiliation><affiliation>Laboratorio Gestione Sostenibile degli Agro‐Ecosistemi (UTAGRI‐ECO), Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l’Energia e lo Sviluppo economico Sostenibile (ENEA), Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 Roma, Italy</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-3"><persName><forename type="first">Monica L.</forename><surname>Cooper</surname></persName><affiliation>University of California, Cooperative Extension, 1710 Soscol Avenue, Suite 4, Napa CA 94559, U.S.A.</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-4"><persName><forename type="first">Gianni</forename><surname>Gilioli</surname></persName><affiliation>Center for the Analysis of Sustainable Agricultural Systems (CASAS Global NGO), 37 Arlington Avenue, Kensington, CA 94707, U.S.A.</affiliation><affiliation>Dipartimento di Scienze e Biomediche e Biotecnologie, Università di Brescia, Viale Europa, 11‐25123 Brescia, Italy</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-5"><persName><forename type="first">Johann</forename><surname>Baumgärtner</surname></persName><affiliation>Center for the Analysis of Sustainable Agricultural Systems (CASAS Global NGO), 37 Arlington Avenue, Kensington, CA 94707, U.S.A.</affiliation><affiliation>Dipartimento di Protezione di Sistemi Urbani Agroalimentari e Valorizzazione delle Biodiversità, Università degli Studi di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-6"><persName><forename type="first">Carlo</forename><surname>Duso</surname></persName><affiliation>Dipartimento di Agronomia Ambientale e Produzioni Vegetali, Università degli Studi di Padova, Viale dell’Università, 16, 35020 Legnaro (PD), Italy</affiliation></author></analytic><monogr><title level="j">Agricultural and Forest Entomology</title><idno type="pISSN">1461-9555</idno><idno type="eISSN">1461-9563</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1111/(ISSN)1461-9563</idno><imprint><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><pubPlace>Oxford, UK</pubPlace><date type="published" when="2012-08"></date><biblScope unit="volume">14</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">3</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="225">225</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="238">238</biblScope></imprint></monogr><idno type="istex">4B1A7D0BA2E7BF25FA534122CAE539FA101E8BC0</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1111/j.1461-9563.2011.00566.x</idno><idno type="ArticleID">AFE566</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><creation><date>2012</date></creation><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage><abstract xml:lang="en"><p>1 The polyphagous European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) is the principal native pest of grape berries in the Palearctic region. It was found in Napa County, California, in 2009, and it has subsequently been recorded in an additional nine counties, despite an ongoing eradication programme. The present study aimed to assess prospectively its potential geographical distribution and relative abundance in California and the continental U.S.A. A subsidiary goal was to provide explanation for timing control measures. 2 Data from the European literature were used to formulate and parameterize a holistic physiologically‐based demographic model for L. botrana. This model was linked to an extant mechanistic model of grapevine phenology, growth and development that provides the bottom‐up effects of fruiting phenology, age and abundance on L. botrana dynamics. Fruit age affects larval developmental rates, and has carryover effects on pupal development and adult fecundity. Also included in the model were the effects of temperature on developmental, survival and fecundity rates. 3 Observed daily weather data were used to simulate the potential distribution of the moth in California, and the continental U.S.A. The relative total number of pupae per vine per year was used as the metric of favourability at all locations. The simulation data were mapped using grass gis (http://grass.osgeo.org/). 4 The model predicts L. botrana can spread statewide with the highest populations expected in the hotter regions of southern California and the lower half of the Central Valley. In the U.S.A., areas of highest favourability include south Texas, and much of the southeast U.S.A. 5 The effects of a warmer climate on pest abundance were explored by increasing observed mean temperatures 2° and 3 °C. L. botrana abundance is expected to increase in northern California and in the agriculturally rich Central Valley but to decrease in the hot deserts of southern California where summer temperatures would approach its upper thermal limit. 6 Analysis of the timing of mating disruption pheromone for control of L. botrana suggests the greatest benefit would accrue by targeting adults emerging from winter diapause pupae and the flight of first summer adults.</p></abstract><textClass xml:lang="en"><keywords scheme="keyword"><list><head>keywords</head><item><term>Distribution and abundance</term></item><item><term>GIS</term></item><item><term>grape</term></item><item><term>invasive species</term></item><item><term>Lobesia botrana</term></item><item><term>pheromones</term></item><item><term>population dynamics</term></item></list></keywords></textClass></profileDesc><revisionDesc><change when="2012-08">Published</change></revisionDesc></teiHeader></istex:fulltextTEI><json:item><extension>txt</extension><original>false</original><mimetype>text/plain</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/4B1A7D0BA2E7BF25FA534122CAE539FA101E8BC0/fulltext/txt</uri></json:item></fulltext><metadata><istex:metadataXml wicri:clean="Wiley, elements deleted: body"><istex:xmlDeclaration>version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"</istex:xmlDeclaration><istex:document><component version="2.0" type="serialArticle" xml:lang="en"><header><publicationMeta level="product"><publisherInfo><publisherName>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisherName><publisherLoc>Oxford, UK</publisherLoc></publisherInfo><doi origin="wiley" registered="yes">10.1111/(ISSN)1461-9563</doi><issn type="print">1461-9555</issn><issn type="electronic">1461-9563</issn><idGroup><id type="product" value="AFE"></id><id type="publisherDivision" value="ST"></id></idGroup><titleGroup><title type="main" sort="AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST ENTOMOLOGY">Agricultural and Forest Entomology</title></titleGroup></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="part" position="08103"><doi origin="wiley">10.1111/afe.2012.14.issue-3</doi><numberingGroup><numbering type="journalVolume" number="14">14</numbering><numbering type="journalIssue" number="3">3</numbering></numberingGroup><coverDate startDate="2012-08">August 2012</coverDate></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="unit" type="article" position="1" status="forIssue"><doi origin="wiley">10.1111/j.1461-9563.2011.00566.x</doi><idGroup><id type="unit" value="AFE566"></id></idGroup><countGroup><count type="pageTotal" number="14"></count></countGroup><titleGroup><title type="tocHeading1">Original Articles</title></titleGroup><copyright>© 2012 The Authors. Agricultural and Forest Entomology © 2012 The Royal Entomological Society</copyright><eventGroup><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:BPG_TO_WML3G version:3.1.5.1 mode:FullText" date="2012-07-11"></event><event type="publishedOnlineEarlyUnpaginated" date="2012-01-12"></event><event type="firstOnline" date="2012-01-12"></event><event type="publishedOnlineFinalForm" date="2012-07-11"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WILEY_ML3G_TO_WILEY_ML3GV2 version:3.8.8" date="2014-01-01"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WML3G_To_WML3G version:4.3.4 mode:FullText" date="2015-02-25"></event></eventGroup><numberingGroup><numbering type="pageFirst" number="225">225</numbering><numbering type="pageLast" number="238">238</numbering></numberingGroup><correspondenceTo>Andrew P. Gutierrez; Tel.: + 1(510) 524 1783; e‐mail: <email>casas.global@berkeley.edu</email></correspondenceTo><objectNameGroup><objectName elementName="appendix">Appendix</objectName></objectNameGroup><linkGroup><link type="toTypesetVersion" href="file:AFE.AFE566.pdf"></link></linkGroup></publicationMeta><contentMeta><unparsedEditorialHistory>Accepted 25 November 2011, First published online 12 January 2012</unparsedEditorialHistory><countGroup><count type="figureTotal" number="10"></count><count type="tableTotal" number="1"></count><count type="formulaTotal" number="15"></count><count type="referenceTotal" number="65"></count></countGroup><titleGroup><title type="main">Prospective analysis of the invasive potential of the European grapevine moth <i>Lobesia botrana</i> (Den. & Schiff.) in California</title><title type="shortAuthors"><i>A. P. Gutierrez</i> et al.</title></titleGroup><creators><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr1" affiliationRef="#a1 #a2" corresponding="yes"><personName><givenNames>Andrew P.</givenNames><familyName>Gutierrez</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr2" affiliationRef="#a1 #a3"><personName><givenNames>Luigi</givenNames><familyName>Ponti</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr3" affiliationRef="#a4"><personName><givenNames>Monica L.</givenNames><familyName>Cooper</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr4" affiliationRef="#a1 #a5"><personName><givenNames>Gianni</givenNames><familyName>Gilioli</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr5" affiliationRef="#a1 #a6"><personName><givenNames>Johann</givenNames><familyName>Baumgärtner</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr6" affiliationRef="#a7"><personName><givenNames>Carlo</givenNames><familyName>Duso</familyName></personName></creator></creators><affiliationGroup><affiliation xml:id="a1"><unparsedAffiliation><i>Center for the Analysis of Sustainable Agricultural Systems (CASAS Global NGO), 37 Arlington Avenue, Kensington, CA 94707, U.S.A.</i></unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="a2" countryCode="US"><unparsedAffiliation><i>Division of Ecosystem Science, College of Natural Resources, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720‐3114, U.S.A.</i></unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="a3"><unparsedAffiliation><i>Laboratorio Gestione Sostenibile degli Agro‐Ecosistemi (UTAGRI‐ECO), Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l’Energia e lo Sviluppo economico Sostenibile (ENEA), Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 Roma, Italy</i></unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="a4" countryCode="US"><unparsedAffiliation><i>University of California, Cooperative Extension, 1710 Soscol Avenue, Suite 4, Napa CA 94559, U.S.A.</i></unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="a5" countryCode="IT"><unparsedAffiliation><i>Dipartimento di Scienze e Biomediche e Biotecnologie, Università di Brescia, Viale Europa, 11‐25123 Brescia, Italy</i></unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="a6" countryCode="IT"><unparsedAffiliation><i>Dipartimento di Protezione di Sistemi Urbani Agroalimentari e Valorizzazione delle Biodiversità, Università degli Studi di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy</i></unparsedAffiliation></affiliation><affiliation xml:id="a7" countryCode="IT"><unparsedAffiliation><i>Dipartimento di Agronomia Ambientale e Produzioni Vegetali, Università degli Studi di Padova, Viale dell’Università, 16, 35020 Legnaro (PD), Italy</i></unparsedAffiliation></affiliation></affiliationGroup><keywordGroup xml:lang="en"><keyword xml:id="k1">Distribution and abundance</keyword><keyword xml:id="k2">GIS</keyword><keyword xml:id="k3">grape</keyword><keyword xml:id="k4">invasive species</keyword><keyword xml:id="k5"><i>Lobesia botrana</i></keyword><keyword xml:id="k6">pheromones</keyword><keyword xml:id="k7">population dynamics</keyword></keywordGroup><supportingInformation><p><b>Supporting information</b></p><p>Additional Supporting information may be found in the online version of this article under the DOI reference: 10.1111/j.1461‐9563.2011.00566.x</p><p><b>Doc. S1.</b> Marginal analysis of pheromone control strategy for <i>L. botrana</i>.</p><supportingInfoItem><mediaResource alt="supporting info item" href="urn-x:wiley:14619555:media:afe566:AFE_566_sm_d1"></mediaResource><caption>Supporting info item</caption></supportingInfoItem></supportingInformation><abstractGroup><abstract type="main" xml:lang="en"><p><list xml:id="l1" style="custom"><listItem><label>1</label><p>The polyphagous European grapevine moth <i>Lobesia botrana</i> (Den. & Schiff.) is the principal native pest of grape berries in the Palearctic region. It was found in Napa County, California, in 2009, and it has subsequently been recorded in an additional nine counties, despite an ongoing eradication programme. The present study aimed to assess prospectively its potential geographical distribution and relative abundance in California and the continental U.S.A. A subsidiary goal was to provide explanation for timing control measures.</p></listItem><listItem><label>2</label><p>Data from the European literature were used to formulate and parameterize a holistic physiologically‐based demographic model for <i>L. botrana</i>. This model was linked to an extant mechanistic model of grapevine phenology, growth and development that provides the bottom‐up effects of fruiting phenology, age and abundance on <i>L. botrana</i> dynamics. Fruit age affects larval developmental rates, and has carryover effects on pupal development and adult fecundity. Also included in the model were the effects of temperature on developmental, survival and fecundity rates.</p></listItem><listItem><label>3</label><p>Observed daily weather data were used to simulate the potential distribution of the moth in California, and the continental U.S.A. The relative total number of pupae per vine per year was used as the metric of favourability at all locations. The simulation data were mapped using <sc>grass gis</sc> (<url href="http://grass.osgeo.org/">http://grass.osgeo.org/</url>).</p></listItem><listItem><label>4</label><p>The model predicts <i>L. botrana</i> can spread statewide with the highest populations expected in the hotter regions of southern California and the lower half of the Central Valley. In the U.S.A., areas of highest favourability include south Texas, and much of the southeast U.S.A.</p></listItem><listItem><label>5</label><p>The effects of a warmer climate on pest abundance were explored by increasing observed mean temperatures 2° and 3 °C. <i>L. botrana</i> abundance is expected to increase in northern California and in the agriculturally rich Central Valley but to decrease in the hot deserts of southern California where summer temperatures would approach its upper thermal limit.</p></listItem><listItem><label>6</label><p>Analysis of the timing of mating disruption pheromone for control of <i>L. botrana</i> suggests the greatest benefit would accrue by targeting adults emerging from winter diapause pupae and the flight of first summer adults.</p></listItem></list></p></abstract></abstractGroup></contentMeta></header></component></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo lang="en"><title>Prospective analysis of the invasive potential of the European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) in California</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" contentType="CDATA" lang="en"><title>Prospective analysis of the invasive potential of the European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) in California</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Andrew P.</namePart><namePart type="family">Gutierrez</namePart><affiliation>Center for the Analysis of Sustainable Agricultural Systems (CASAS Global NGO), 37 Arlington Avenue, Kensington, CA 94707, U.S.A.</affiliation><affiliation>Division of Ecosystem Science, College of Natural Resources, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720‐3114, U.S.A.</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: casas.global@berkeley.edu</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Luigi</namePart><namePart type="family">Ponti</namePart><affiliation>Center for the Analysis of Sustainable Agricultural Systems (CASAS Global NGO), 37 Arlington Avenue, Kensington, CA 94707, U.S.A.</affiliation><affiliation>Laboratorio Gestione Sostenibile degli Agro‐Ecosistemi (UTAGRI‐ECO), Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l’Energia e lo Sviluppo economico Sostenibile (ENEA), Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 Roma, Italy</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Monica L.</namePart><namePart type="family">Cooper</namePart><affiliation>University of California, Cooperative Extension, 1710 Soscol Avenue, Suite 4, Napa CA 94559, U.S.A.</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Gianni</namePart><namePart type="family">Gilioli</namePart><affiliation>Center for the Analysis of Sustainable Agricultural Systems (CASAS Global NGO), 37 Arlington Avenue, Kensington, CA 94707, U.S.A.</affiliation><affiliation>Dipartimento di Scienze e Biomediche e Biotecnologie, Università di Brescia, Viale Europa, 11‐25123 Brescia, Italy</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Johann</namePart><namePart type="family">Baumgärtner</namePart><affiliation>Center for the Analysis of Sustainable Agricultural Systems (CASAS Global NGO), 37 Arlington Avenue, Kensington, CA 94707, U.S.A.</affiliation><affiliation>Dipartimento di Protezione di Sistemi Urbani Agroalimentari e Valorizzazione delle Biodiversità, Università degli Studi di Milano, 20133 Milano, Italy</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Carlo</namePart><namePart type="family">Duso</namePart><affiliation>Dipartimento di Agronomia Ambientale e Produzioni Vegetali, Università degli Studi di Padova, Viale dell’Università, 16, 35020 Legnaro (PD), Italy</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource><genre type="article" displayLabel="article"></genre><originInfo><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><place><placeTerm type="text">Oxford, UK</placeTerm></place><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">2012-08</dateIssued><edition>Accepted 25 November 2011, First published online 12 January 2012</edition><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2012</copyrightDate></originInfo><language><languageTerm type="code" authority="rfc3066">en</languageTerm><languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm></language><physicalDescription><internetMediaType>text/html</internetMediaType><extent unit="figures">10</extent><extent unit="tables">1</extent><extent unit="formulas">15</extent><extent unit="references">65</extent></physicalDescription><abstract lang="en">1 The polyphagous European grapevine moth Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) is the principal native pest of grape berries in the Palearctic region. It was found in Napa County, California, in 2009, and it has subsequently been recorded in an additional nine counties, despite an ongoing eradication programme. The present study aimed to assess prospectively its potential geographical distribution and relative abundance in California and the continental U.S.A. A subsidiary goal was to provide explanation for timing control measures. 2 Data from the European literature were used to formulate and parameterize a holistic physiologically‐based demographic model for L. botrana. This model was linked to an extant mechanistic model of grapevine phenology, growth and development that provides the bottom‐up effects of fruiting phenology, age and abundance on L. botrana dynamics. Fruit age affects larval developmental rates, and has carryover effects on pupal development and adult fecundity. Also included in the model were the effects of temperature on developmental, survival and fecundity rates. 3 Observed daily weather data were used to simulate the potential distribution of the moth in California, and the continental U.S.A. The relative total number of pupae per vine per year was used as the metric of favourability at all locations. The simulation data were mapped using grass gis (http://grass.osgeo.org/). 4 The model predicts L. botrana can spread statewide with the highest populations expected in the hotter regions of southern California and the lower half of the Central Valley. In the U.S.A., areas of highest favourability include south Texas, and much of the southeast U.S.A. 5 The effects of a warmer climate on pest abundance were explored by increasing observed mean temperatures 2° and 3 °C. L. botrana abundance is expected to increase in northern California and in the agriculturally rich Central Valley but to decrease in the hot deserts of southern California where summer temperatures would approach its upper thermal limit. 6 Analysis of the timing of mating disruption pheromone for control of L. botrana suggests the greatest benefit would accrue by targeting adults emerging from winter diapause pupae and the flight of first summer adults.</abstract><subject lang="en"><genre>keywords</genre><topic>Distribution and abundance</topic><topic>GIS</topic><topic>grape</topic><topic>invasive species</topic><topic>Lobesia botrana</topic><topic>pheromones</topic><topic>population dynamics</topic></subject><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Agricultural and Forest Entomology</title></titleInfo><genre type="journal">journal</genre><note type="content"> Supporting information Additional Supporting information may be found in the online version of this article under the DOI reference: 10.1111/j.1461‐9563.2011.00566.x Doc. S1. Marginal analysis of pheromone control strategy for L. botrana. Supporting information Additional Supporting information may be found in the online version of this article under the DOI reference: 10.1111/j.1461‐9563.2011.00566.x Doc. S1. Marginal analysis of pheromone control strategy for L. botrana. Supporting information Additional Supporting information may be found in the online version of this article under the DOI reference: 10.1111/j.1461‐9563.2011.00566.x Doc. S1. Marginal analysis of pheromone control strategy for L. botrana.Supporting Info Item: Supporting info item - </note><identifier type="ISSN">1461-9555</identifier><identifier type="eISSN">1461-9563</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/(ISSN)1461-9563</identifier><identifier type="PublisherID">AFE</identifier><part><date>2012</date><detail type="volume"><caption>vol.</caption><number>14</number></detail><detail type="issue"><caption>no.</caption><number>3</number></detail><extent unit="pages"><start>225</start><end>238</end><total>14</total></extent></part></relatedItem><identifier type="istex">4B1A7D0BA2E7BF25FA534122CAE539FA101E8BC0</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/j.1461-9563.2011.00566.x</identifier><identifier type="ArticleID">AFE566</identifier><accessCondition type="use and reproduction" contentType="copyright">© 2012 The Authors. 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