Socioeconomic scenarios and flood damage assessment methodologies for the Taihu Basin, China
Identifieur interne : 000C40 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 000C39; suivant : 000C41Socioeconomic scenarios and flood damage assessment methodologies for the Taihu Basin, China
Auteurs : E. C. Penning-Rowsell ; W. Yanyan ; A. R. Watkinson ; J. Jiang ; C. ThorneSource :
- Journal of Flood Risk Management [ 1753-318X ] ; 2013-03.
Abstract
The assessment of flood risk is now widely recognised to need research and data on both the probability and the consequences of flooding; the research reported here concentrates on the latter data input. Building on the UK Foresight Future Flooding project, this paper describes the development of future scenarios through which to assess possible future flood risk in the Taihu Basin area of China. In addition, we describe the flood damage assessment model that was developed there to build on these scenarios so as to calculate anticipated risk. Acknowledged methodological limitations remain, but some important developments have resulted. First, the pre‐existing flood loss data that were available from Shanghai meant that this aspect of the risk model's input was more regionally appropriate than would otherwise have been the case. Second, the damage assessment has been related both to constructed scenarios and to an agreed National Plan, so that the two can be compared. Third, the scenario construction was linked in Taihu to the statistical base contained in the 2006 Yearbook and the Fifth National Socio‐economic Survey data, giving a sounder ‘base case’ of current flood vulnerability than used in the UK Foresight Future Flooding project. Finally, much more attention was given here to agricultural production and flood risk, given the importance of agriculture in the Chinese economy and its focus on food production for a growing population.
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DOI: 10.1111/j.1753-318X.2012.01168.x
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Yanyan</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Watkinson, A R" sort="Watkinson, A R" uniqKey="Watkinson A" first="A. R." last="Watkinson">A. R. Watkinson</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Jiang, J" sort="Jiang, J" uniqKey="Jiang J" first="J." last="Jiang">J. Jiang</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Thorne, C" sort="Thorne, C" uniqKey="Thorne C" first="C." last="Thorne">C. 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Penning-Rowsell</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, London, UK</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Edmund C. Penning‐Rowsell, Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, The Burroughs, London NW4, UKEmail:</mods:affiliation></affiliation><affiliation><mods:affiliation>E-mail: edmund@penningrowsell.com</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yanyan, W" sort="Yanyan, W" uniqKey="Yanyan W" first="W." last="Yanyan">W. Yanyan</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Watkinson, A R" sort="Watkinson, A R" uniqKey="Watkinson A" first="A. R." last="Watkinson">A. R. 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Building on the UK Foresight Future Flooding project, this paper describes the development of future scenarios through which to assess possible future flood risk in the Taihu Basin area of China. In addition, we describe the flood damage assessment model that was developed there to build on these scenarios so as to calculate anticipated risk. Acknowledged methodological limitations remain, but some important developments have resulted. First, the pre‐existing flood loss data that were available from Shanghai meant that this aspect of the risk model's input was more regionally appropriate than would otherwise have been the case. Second, the damage assessment has been related both to constructed scenarios and to an agreed National Plan, so that the two can be compared. Third, the scenario construction was linked in Taihu to the statistical base contained in the 2006 Yearbook and the Fifth National Socio‐economic Survey data, giving a sounder ‘base case’ of current flood vulnerability than used in the UK Foresight Future Flooding project. Finally, much more attention was given here to agricultural production and flood risk, given the importance of agriculture in the Chinese economy and its focus on food production for a growing population.</div></front></TEI><istex><corpusName>wiley</corpusName><author><json:item><name>E.C. Penning‐Rowsell</name><affiliations><json:string>Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, London, UK</json:string><json:string>Edmund C. Penning‐Rowsell, Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, The Burroughs, London NW4, UKEmail:</json:string><json:string>E-mail: edmund@penningrowsell.com</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>W. 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Third, the scenario construction was linked in Taihu to the statistical base contained in the 2006 Yearbook and the Fifth National Socio‐economic Survey data, giving a sounder ‘base case’ of current flood vulnerability than used in the UK Foresight Future Flooding project. 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Penning‐Rowsell, Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, The Burroughs, London NW4, UK</line><line>Email: <email>edmund@penningrowsell.com</email></line></lineatedText></correspondenceTo><linkGroup><link type="toTypesetVersion" href="file:JFR3.JFR31168.pdf"></link></linkGroup></publicationMeta><contentMeta><titleGroup><title type="short">Socioeconomic scenarios and flood damage assessment methodologies</title><title type="shortAuthors">Penning‐<fc>R</fc>owsell <i>et al</i>.</title><title type="main">Socioeconomic scenarios and flood damage assessment methodologies for the <fc>T</fc>aihu <fc>B</fc>asin, <fc>C</fc>hina</title></titleGroup><creators><creator affiliationRef="#jfr31168-aff-0001" corresponding="yes" creatorRole="author" xml:id="jfr31168-cr-0001"><personName><givenNames>E.C.</givenNames><familyName>Penning‐Rowsell</familyName></personName></creator><creator affiliationRef="#jfr31168-aff-0002" creatorRole="author" xml:id="jfr31168-cr-0002"><personName><givenNames>W.</givenNames><familyName>Yanyan</familyName></personName></creator><creator affiliationRef="#jfr31168-aff-0003" creatorRole="author" xml:id="jfr31168-cr-0003"><personName><givenNames>A.R.</givenNames><familyName>Watkinson</familyName></personName></creator><creator affiliationRef="#jfr31168-aff-0004" creatorRole="author" xml:id="jfr31168-cr-0004"><personName><givenNames>J.</givenNames><familyName>Jiang</familyName></personName></creator><creator affiliationRef="#jfr31168-aff-0005" creatorRole="author" xml:id="jfr31168-cr-0005"><personName><givenNames>C.</givenNames><familyName>Thorne</familyName></personName></creator></creators><affiliationGroup><affiliation countryCode="GB" xml:id="jfr31168-aff-0001"><orgDiv>Flood Hazard Research Centre</orgDiv><orgName>Middlesex University</orgName><address><city>London</city><country>UK</country></address></affiliation><affiliation countryCode="CN" xml:id="jfr31168-aff-0002"><orgName>China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research</orgName><address><city>Beijing</city><country>China</country></address></affiliation><affiliation countryCode="GB" xml:id="jfr31168-aff-0003"><orgDiv>School of Environmental Sciences</orgDiv><orgName>University of East Anglia</orgName><address><city>Norwich</city><country>UK</country></address></affiliation><affiliation countryCode="CN" xml:id="jfr31168-aff-0004"><orgDiv>Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics</orgDiv><orgName>Chinese Academy of Social Sciences</orgName><address><city>Beijing</city><country>China</country></address></affiliation><affiliation countryCode="GB" xml:id="jfr31168-aff-0005"><orgDiv>Department of Geography</orgDiv><orgName>The University of Nottingham</orgName><address><city>Nottingham</city><country>UK</country></address></affiliation></affiliationGroup><keywordGroup type="author"><keyword xml:id="jfr31168-kwd-0001"><fc>C</fc>hina</keyword><keyword xml:id="jfr31168-kwd-0002">flood damage</keyword><keyword xml:id="jfr31168-kwd-0003">flood risk</keyword><keyword xml:id="jfr31168-kwd-0004">scenario development</keyword></keywordGroup><abstractGroup><abstract type="main"><title type="main">Abstract</title><p>The assessment of flood risk is now widely recognised to need research and data on both the probability and the consequences of flooding; the research reported here concentrates on the latter data input. Building on the <fc>UK F</fc>oresight <fc>F</fc>uture <fc>F</fc>looding project, this paper describes the development of future scenarios through which to assess possible future flood risk in the <fc>T</fc>aihu <fc>B</fc>asin area of <fc>C</fc>hina. In addition, we describe the flood damage assessment model that was developed there to build on these scenarios so as to calculate anticipated risk. Acknowledged methodological limitations remain, but some important developments have resulted. First, the pre‐existing flood loss data that were available from <fc>S</fc>hanghai meant that this aspect of the risk model's input was more regionally appropriate than would otherwise have been the case. Second, the damage assessment has been related both to constructed scenarios and to an agreed <fc>N</fc>ational <fc>P</fc>lan, so that the two can be compared. Third, the scenario construction was linked in <fc>T</fc>aihu to the statistical base contained in the 2006 <fc>Y</fc>earbook and the <fc>F</fc>ifth <fc>N</fc>ational <fc>S</fc>ocio‐economic <fc>S</fc>urvey data, giving a sounder ‘base case’ of current flood vulnerability than used in the <fc>UK F</fc>oresight <fc>F</fc>uture <fc>F</fc>looding project. Finally, much more attention was given here to agricultural production and flood risk, given the importance of agriculture in the <fc>C</fc>hinese economy and its focus on food production for a growing population.</p></abstract></abstractGroup></contentMeta></header></component></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo lang="en"><title>Socioeconomic scenarios and flood damage assessment methodologies for the Taihu Basin, China</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated" lang="en"><title>Socioeconomic scenarios and flood damage assessment methodologies</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" contentType="CDATA" lang="en"><title>Socioeconomic scenarios and flood damage assessment methodologies for the Taihu Basin, China</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">E.C.</namePart><namePart type="family">Penning‐Rowsell</namePart><affiliation>Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, London, UK</affiliation><affiliation>Edmund C. Penning‐Rowsell, Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, The Burroughs, London NW4, UKEmail:</affiliation><affiliation>E-mail: edmund@penningrowsell.com</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">W.</namePart><namePart type="family">Yanyan</namePart><affiliation>China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, China</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">A.R.</namePart><namePart type="family">Watkinson</namePart><affiliation>School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">J.</namePart><namePart type="family">Jiang</namePart><affiliation>Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">C.</namePart><namePart type="family">Thorne</namePart><affiliation>Department of Geography, The University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource><genre type="article" displayLabel="article"></genre><originInfo><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">2013-03</dateIssued><dateCreated encoding="w3cdtf">2012-09-18</dateCreated><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2013</copyrightDate></originInfo><language><languageTerm type="code" authority="rfc3066">en</languageTerm><languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm></language><physicalDescription><internetMediaType>text/html</internetMediaType></physicalDescription><abstract>The assessment of flood risk is now widely recognised to need research and data on both the probability and the consequences of flooding; the research reported here concentrates on the latter data input. Building on the UK Foresight Future Flooding project, this paper describes the development of future scenarios through which to assess possible future flood risk in the Taihu Basin area of China. In addition, we describe the flood damage assessment model that was developed there to build on these scenarios so as to calculate anticipated risk. Acknowledged methodological limitations remain, but some important developments have resulted. First, the pre‐existing flood loss data that were available from Shanghai meant that this aspect of the risk model's input was more regionally appropriate than would otherwise have been the case. Second, the damage assessment has been related both to constructed scenarios and to an agreed National Plan, so that the two can be compared. Third, the scenario construction was linked in Taihu to the statistical base contained in the 2006 Yearbook and the Fifth National Socio‐economic Survey data, giving a sounder ‘base case’ of current flood vulnerability than used in the UK Foresight Future Flooding project. Finally, much more attention was given here to agricultural production and flood risk, given the importance of agriculture in the Chinese economy and its focus on food production for a growing population.</abstract><subject><genre>keywords</genre><topic>China</topic><topic>flood damage</topic><topic>flood risk</topic><topic>scenario development</topic></subject><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Journal of Flood Risk Management</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated"><title>J. Flood Risk Manage</title></titleInfo><genre type="journal">journal</genre><subject><genre>article-category</genre><topic>Original Article</topic></subject><identifier type="ISSN">1753-318X</identifier><identifier type="eISSN">1753-318X</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/(ISSN)1753-318X</identifier><identifier type="PublisherID">JFR3</identifier><part><date>2013</date><detail type="title"><title>Taihu Basin Foresight Project Special Issue</title></detail><detail type="volume"><caption>vol.</caption><number>6</number></detail><detail type="issue"><caption>no.</caption><number>1</number></detail><extent unit="pages"><start>23</start><end>32</end><total>10</total></extent></part></relatedItem><identifier type="istex">3B648816B7119F3E7E6B72AA8CD09E77DA74BB6C</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/j.1753-318X.2012.01168.x</identifier><identifier type="ArticleID">JFR31168</identifier><accessCondition type="use and reproduction" contentType="copyright">Copyright © 2013 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM)© 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM)</accessCondition><recordInfo><recordContentSource>WILEY</recordContentSource></recordInfo></mods></metadata><serie></serie></istex></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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