CONFLICT AND COOPERATION OVER INTERNATIONAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES: INDICATORS OF BASINS AT RISR
Identifieur interne : 000A97 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 000A96; suivant : 000A98CONFLICT AND COOPERATION OVER INTERNATIONAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES: INDICATORS OF BASINS AT RISR
Auteurs : Shim Yoffe ; Aaron T. Wolf ; Mark GiordanoSource :
- JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association [ 1093-474X ] ; 2003-10.
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Abstract
ABSTRACT: In this paper we seek to identify historical indicators of international freshwater conflict and cooperation and to create a framework to identify and evaluate international river basins at potential risk for future conflict. We derived biophysical, socioeco‐nomic, and geopolitical variables at multiple spatial and temporal scales from GIS datasets of international basins and associated countries, and we tested these variables against a database of historical incidents of international water related cooperation and conflict from 1948 to 1999. International relations over freshwater resources were overwhelmingly cooperative and covered a wide range of issues, including water quantity, water quality, joint management, and hydropower. Conflictive relations tended to center on quantity and infrastructure. No single indicator—including climate, water stress, government type, and dependence on water for agriculture or energy—explained conflict/cooperation over water. Even indicators showing a significant correlation with water conflict, such as high population density, low per capita GDP, and overall unfriendly international relations, explained only a small percentage of data variability. The most promising sets of indicators for water conflict were those associated with rapid or extreme physical or institutional change within a basin (e.g., large dams or internationalization of a basin) and the key role of institutional mechanisms, such as freshwater treaties, in mitigating such conflict.
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DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2003.tb03696.x
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ISTEX:33EE51D6BF42A599043D1268520C487EF37E1C89Le document en format XML
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Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka (E‐Mail/Yoffe: SYoffe@mfire.com).</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wolf, Aaron T" sort="Wolf, Aaron T" uniqKey="Wolf A" first="Aaron T." last="Wolf">Aaron T. Wolf</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Respectively, Diplomacy Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Associate Professor of Geography, Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, 104 Wilkinson Hall, Corvallis, Oregon 97331; and Senior Researcher, International Water Management Institute, P.O. Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka (E‐Mail/Yoffe: SYoffe@mfire.com).</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Giordano, Mark" sort="Giordano, Mark" uniqKey="Giordano M" first="Mark" last="Giordano">Mark Giordano</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Respectively, Diplomacy Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Associate Professor of Geography, Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, 104 Wilkinson Hall, Corvallis, Oregon 97331; and Senior Researcher, International Water Management Institute, P.O. Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka (E‐Mail/Yoffe: SYoffe@mfire.com).</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j">JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association</title><idno type="ISSN">1093-474X</idno><idno type="eISSN">1752-1688</idno><imprint><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><pubPlace>Oxford, UK</pubPlace><date type="published" when="2003-10">2003-10</date><biblScope unit="volume">39</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">5</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="1109">1109</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="1126">1126</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">1093-474X</idno></series><idno type="istex">33EE51D6BF42A599043D1268520C487EF37E1C89</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1111/j.1752-1688.2003.tb03696.x</idno><idno type="ArticleID">JAWR1109</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">1093-474X</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>conflict</term><term>cooperation</term><term>event data</term><term>geographic information systems</term><term>indicators</term><term>international river basins</term><term>water resources geography</term></keywords></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract">ABSTRACT: In this paper we seek to identify historical indicators of international freshwater conflict and cooperation and to create a framework to identify and evaluate international river basins at potential risk for future conflict. We derived biophysical, socioeco‐nomic, and geopolitical variables at multiple spatial and temporal scales from GIS datasets of international basins and associated countries, and we tested these variables against a database of historical incidents of international water related cooperation and conflict from 1948 to 1999. International relations over freshwater resources were overwhelmingly cooperative and covered a wide range of issues, including water quantity, water quality, joint management, and hydropower. Conflictive relations tended to center on quantity and infrastructure. No single indicator—including climate, water stress, government type, and dependence on water for agriculture or energy—explained conflict/cooperation over water. Even indicators showing a significant correlation with water conflict, such as high population density, low per capita GDP, and overall unfriendly international relations, explained only a small percentage of data variability. The most promising sets of indicators for water conflict were those associated with rapid or extreme physical or institutional change within a basin (e.g., large dams or internationalization of a basin) and the key role of institutional mechanisms, such as freshwater treaties, in mitigating such conflict.</div></front></TEI><istex><corpusName>wiley</corpusName><author><json:item><name>Shim Yoffe</name><affiliations><json:string>Respectively, Diplomacy Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Associate Professor of Geography, Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, 104 Wilkinson Hall, Corvallis, Oregon 97331; and Senior Researcher, International Water Management Institute, P.O. Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka (E‐Mail/Yoffe: SYoffe@mfire.com).</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Aaron T. Wolf</name><affiliations><json:string>Respectively, Diplomacy Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Associate Professor of Geography, Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, 104 Wilkinson Hall, Corvallis, Oregon 97331; and Senior Researcher, International Water Management Institute, P.O. Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka (E‐Mail/Yoffe: SYoffe@mfire.com).</json:string></affiliations></json:item><json:item><name>Mark Giordano</name><affiliations><json:string>Respectively, Diplomacy Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Associate Professor of Geography, Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, 104 Wilkinson Hall, Corvallis, Oregon 97331; and Senior Researcher, International Water Management Institute, P.O. Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka (E‐Mail/Yoffe: SYoffe@mfire.com).</json:string></affiliations></json:item></author><subject><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>international river basins</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>conflict</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>cooperation</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>event data</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>geographic information systems</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>water resources geography</value></json:item><json:item><lang><json:string>eng</json:string></lang><value>indicators</value></json:item></subject><articleId><json:string>JAWR1109</json:string></articleId><language><json:string>eng</json:string></language><originalGenre><json:string>article</json:string></originalGenre><abstract>ABSTRACT: In this paper we seek to identify historical indicators of international freshwater conflict and cooperation and to create a framework to identify and evaluate international river basins at potential risk for future conflict. We derived biophysical, socioeco‐nomic, and geopolitical variables at multiple spatial and temporal scales from GIS datasets of international basins and associated countries, and we tested these variables against a database of historical incidents of international water related cooperation and conflict from 1948 to 1999. International relations over freshwater resources were overwhelmingly cooperative and covered a wide range of issues, including water quantity, water quality, joint management, and hydropower. Conflictive relations tended to center on quantity and infrastructure. No single indicator—including climate, water stress, government type, and dependence on water for agriculture or energy—explained conflict/cooperation over water. Even indicators showing a significant correlation with water conflict, such as high population density, low per capita GDP, and overall unfriendly international relations, explained only a small percentage of data variability. 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Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka (E‐Mail/Yoffe: SYoffe@mfire.com).</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-2"><persName><forename type="first">Aaron T.</forename><surname>Wolf</surname></persName><affiliation>Respectively, Diplomacy Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Associate Professor of Geography, Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, 104 Wilkinson Hall, Corvallis, Oregon 97331; and Senior Researcher, International Water Management Institute, P.O. Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka (E‐Mail/Yoffe: SYoffe@mfire.com).</affiliation></author><author xml:id="author-3"><persName><forename type="first">Mark</forename><surname>Giordano</surname></persName><affiliation>Respectively, Diplomacy Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Associate Professor of Geography, Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, 104 Wilkinson Hall, Corvallis, Oregon 97331; and Senior Researcher, International Water Management Institute, P.O. Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka (E‐Mail/Yoffe: SYoffe@mfire.com).</affiliation></author></analytic><monogr><title level="j">JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association</title><idno type="pISSN">1093-474X</idno><idno type="eISSN">1752-1688</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1111/(ISSN)1752-1688</idno><imprint><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><pubPlace>Oxford, UK</pubPlace><date type="published" when="2003-10"></date><biblScope unit="volume">39</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">5</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="1109">1109</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="1126">1126</biblScope></imprint></monogr><idno type="istex">33EE51D6BF42A599043D1268520C487EF37E1C89</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1111/j.1752-1688.2003.tb03696.x</idno><idno type="ArticleID">JAWR1109</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><creation><date>2003</date></creation><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage><abstract><p>ABSTRACT: In this paper we seek to identify historical indicators of international freshwater conflict and cooperation and to create a framework to identify and evaluate international river basins at potential risk for future conflict. We derived biophysical, socioeco‐nomic, and geopolitical variables at multiple spatial and temporal scales from GIS datasets of international basins and associated countries, and we tested these variables against a database of historical incidents of international water related cooperation and conflict from 1948 to 1999. International relations over freshwater resources were overwhelmingly cooperative and covered a wide range of issues, including water quantity, water quality, joint management, and hydropower. Conflictive relations tended to center on quantity and infrastructure. No single indicator—including climate, water stress, government type, and dependence on water for agriculture or energy—explained conflict/cooperation over water. Even indicators showing a significant correlation with water conflict, such as high population density, low per capita GDP, and overall unfriendly international relations, explained only a small percentage of data variability. The most promising sets of indicators for water conflict were those associated with rapid or extreme physical or institutional change within a basin (e.g., large dams or internationalization of a basin) and the key role of institutional mechanisms, such as freshwater treaties, in mitigating such conflict.</p></abstract><textClass xml:lang="en"><keywords scheme="keyword"><list><head>keywords</head><item><term>international river basins</term></item><item><term>conflict</term></item><item><term>cooperation</term></item><item><term>event data</term></item><item><term>geographic information systems</term></item><item><term>water resources geography</term></item><item><term>indicators</term></item></list></keywords></textClass></profileDesc><revisionDesc><change when="2003-10">Published</change></revisionDesc></teiHeader></istex:fulltextTEI><json:item><extension>txt</extension><original>false</original><mimetype>text/plain</mimetype><uri>https://api.istex.fr/document/33EE51D6BF42A599043D1268520C487EF37E1C89/fulltext/txt</uri></json:item></fulltext><metadata><istex:metadataXml wicri:clean="Wiley, elements deleted: body"><istex:xmlDeclaration>version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" standalone="yes"</istex:xmlDeclaration><istex:document><component version="2.0" type="serialArticle" xml:lang="en"><header><publicationMeta level="product"><publisherInfo><publisherName>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisherName><publisherLoc>Oxford, UK</publisherLoc></publisherInfo><doi origin="wiley" registered="yes">10.1111/(ISSN)1752-1688</doi><issn type="print">1093-474X</issn><issn type="electronic">1752-1688</issn><idGroup><id type="product" value="JAWR"></id><id type="publisherDivision" value="ST"></id></idGroup><titleGroup><title type="main" sort="JOURNAL OF AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION">JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association</title></titleGroup></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="part" position="10005"><doi origin="wiley">10.1111/jawr.2003.39.issue-5</doi><numberingGroup><numbering type="journalVolume" number="39">39</numbering><numbering type="journalIssue" number="5">5</numbering></numberingGroup><coverDate startDate="2003-10">October 2003</coverDate></publicationMeta><publicationMeta level="unit" type="article" position="0110900" status="forIssue"><doi origin="wiley">10.1111/j.1752-1688.2003.tb03696.x</doi><idGroup><id type="unit" value="JAWR1109"></id></idGroup><countGroup><count type="pageTotal" number="18"></count></countGroup><eventGroup><event type="firstOnline" date="2007-06-08"></event><event type="publishedOnlineFinalForm" date="2007-06-08"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:BPG_TO_WML3G version:2.3.5 mode:FullText source:HeaderRef result:HeaderRef" date="2010-04-07"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WILEY_ML3G_TO_WILEY_ML3GV2 version:3.8.8" date="2014-01-28"></event><event type="xmlConverted" agent="Converter:WML3G_To_WML3G version:4.1.7 mode:FullText,remove_FC" date="2014-10-24"></event></eventGroup><numberingGroup><numbering type="pageFirst" number="1109">1109</numbering><numbering type="pageLast" number="1126">1126</numbering></numberingGroup><linkGroup><link type="toTypesetVersion" href="file:JAWR.JAWR1109.pdf"></link></linkGroup></publicationMeta><contentMeta><countGroup><count type="referenceTotal" number="43"></count><count type="linksCrossRef" number="4"></count></countGroup><titleGroup><title type="main">CONFLICT AND COOPERATION OVER INTERNATIONAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES: INDICATORS OF BASINS AT RISR<link href="#fn1"><sup>1</sup></link></title></titleGroup><creators><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr1" affiliationRef="#a1"><personName><givenNames>Shim</givenNames><familyName>Yoffe</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr2" affiliationRef="#a1"><personName><givenNames>Aaron T.</givenNames><familyName>Wolf</familyName></personName></creator><creator creatorRole="author" xml:id="cr3" affiliationRef="#a1"><personName><givenNames>Mark</givenNames><familyName>Giordano</familyName></personName></creator></creators><affiliationGroup><affiliation xml:id="a1" countryCode="US"><unparsedAffiliation> Respectively, Diplomacy Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Associate Professor of Geography, Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, 104 Wilkinson Hall, Corvallis, Oregon 97331; and Senior Researcher, International Water Management Institute, P.O. Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka (E‐Mail/Yoffe: <email>SYoffe@mfire.com</email>).</unparsedAffiliation></affiliation></affiliationGroup><keywordGroup xml:lang="en"><keyword xml:id="k1">international river basins</keyword><keyword xml:id="k2">conflict</keyword><keyword xml:id="k3">cooperation</keyword><keyword xml:id="k4">event data</keyword><keyword xml:id="k5">geographic information systems</keyword><keyword xml:id="k6">water resources geography</keyword><keyword xml:id="k7">indicators</keyword></keywordGroup><abstractGroup><abstract type="main" xml:lang="en"><p><b>ABSTRACT: </b> In this paper we seek to identify historical indicators of international freshwater conflict and cooperation and to create a framework to identify and evaluate international river basins at potential risk for future conflict. We derived biophysical, socioeco‐nomic, and geopolitical variables at multiple spatial and temporal scales from GIS datasets of international basins and associated countries, and we tested these variables against a database of historical incidents of international water related cooperation and conflict from 1948 to 1999. International relations over freshwater resources were overwhelmingly cooperative and covered a wide range of issues, including water quantity, water quality, joint management, and hydropower. Conflictive relations tended to center on quantity and infrastructure. No single indicator—including climate, water stress, government type, and dependence on water for agriculture or energy—explained conflict/cooperation over water. Even indicators showing a significant correlation with water conflict, such as high population density, low per capita GDP, and overall unfriendly international relations, explained only a small percentage of data variability. The most promising sets of indicators for water conflict were those associated with rapid or extreme physical or institutional change within a basin (e.g., large dams or internationalization of a basin) and the key role of institutional mechanisms, such as freshwater treaties, in mitigating such conflict.</p></abstract></abstractGroup></contentMeta><noteGroup><note xml:id="fn1"><label>1</label><p>Paper No. 02036 of the <i>Journal of the American Water Resources Association.</i><b>Discussions are open until April 1, 2004.</b></p></note></noteGroup></header></component></istex:document></istex:metadataXml><mods version="3.6"><titleInfo lang="en"><title>CONFLICT AND COOPERATION OVER INTERNATIONAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES: INDICATORS OF BASINS AT RISR</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="alternative" contentType="CDATA" lang="en"><title>CONFLICT AND COOPERATION OVER INTERNATIONAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES: INDICATORS OF BASINS AT RISR1</title></titleInfo><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Shim</namePart><namePart type="family">Yoffe</namePart><affiliation>Respectively, Diplomacy Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Associate Professor of Geography, Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, 104 Wilkinson Hall, Corvallis, Oregon 97331; and Senior Researcher, International Water Management Institute, P.O. Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka (E‐Mail/Yoffe: SYoffe@mfire.com).</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Aaron T.</namePart><namePart type="family">Wolf</namePart><affiliation>Respectively, Diplomacy Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Associate Professor of Geography, Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, 104 Wilkinson Hall, Corvallis, Oregon 97331; and Senior Researcher, International Water Management Institute, P.O. Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka (E‐Mail/Yoffe: SYoffe@mfire.com).</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><name type="personal"><namePart type="given">Mark</namePart><namePart type="family">Giordano</namePart><affiliation>Respectively, Diplomacy Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Associate Professor of Geography, Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, 104 Wilkinson Hall, Corvallis, Oregon 97331; and Senior Researcher, International Water Management Institute, P.O. Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka (E‐Mail/Yoffe: SYoffe@mfire.com).</affiliation><role><roleTerm type="text">author</roleTerm></role></name><typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource><genre type="article" displayLabel="article"></genre><originInfo><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><place><placeTerm type="text">Oxford, UK</placeTerm></place><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">2003-10</dateIssued><copyrightDate encoding="w3cdtf">2003</copyrightDate></originInfo><language><languageTerm type="code" authority="rfc3066">en</languageTerm><languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm></language><physicalDescription><internetMediaType>text/html</internetMediaType><extent unit="references">43</extent></physicalDescription><abstract>ABSTRACT: In this paper we seek to identify historical indicators of international freshwater conflict and cooperation and to create a framework to identify and evaluate international river basins at potential risk for future conflict. We derived biophysical, socioeco‐nomic, and geopolitical variables at multiple spatial and temporal scales from GIS datasets of international basins and associated countries, and we tested these variables against a database of historical incidents of international water related cooperation and conflict from 1948 to 1999. International relations over freshwater resources were overwhelmingly cooperative and covered a wide range of issues, including water quantity, water quality, joint management, and hydropower. Conflictive relations tended to center on quantity and infrastructure. No single indicator—including climate, water stress, government type, and dependence on water for agriculture or energy—explained conflict/cooperation over water. Even indicators showing a significant correlation with water conflict, such as high population density, low per capita GDP, and overall unfriendly international relations, explained only a small percentage of data variability. The most promising sets of indicators for water conflict were those associated with rapid or extreme physical or institutional change within a basin (e.g., large dams or internationalization of a basin) and the key role of institutional mechanisms, such as freshwater treaties, in mitigating such conflict.</abstract><note type="content">*Paper No. 02036 of the Journal of the American Water Resources Association.Discussions are open until April 1, 2004.</note><subject lang="en"><genre>keywords</genre><topic>international river basins</topic><topic>conflict</topic><topic>cooperation</topic><topic>event data</topic><topic>geographic information systems</topic><topic>water resources geography</topic><topic>indicators</topic></subject><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association</title></titleInfo><genre type="journal">journal</genre><identifier type="ISSN">1093-474X</identifier><identifier type="eISSN">1752-1688</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/(ISSN)1752-1688</identifier><identifier type="PublisherID">JAWR</identifier><part><date>2003</date><detail type="volume"><caption>vol.</caption><number>39</number></detail><detail type="issue"><caption>no.</caption><number>5</number></detail><extent unit="pages"><start>1109</start><end>1126</end><total>18</total></extent></part></relatedItem><identifier type="istex">33EE51D6BF42A599043D1268520C487EF37E1C89</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1111/j.1752-1688.2003.tb03696.x</identifier><identifier type="ArticleID">JAWR1109</identifier><recordInfo><recordContentSource>WILEY</recordContentSource><recordOrigin>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</recordOrigin></recordInfo></mods></metadata><serie></serie></istex></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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