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CONFLICT AND COOPERATION OVER INTERNATIONAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES: INDICATORS OF BASINS AT RISR

Identifieur interne : 000A97 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 000A96; suivant : 000A98

CONFLICT AND COOPERATION OVER INTERNATIONAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES: INDICATORS OF BASINS AT RISR

Auteurs : Shim Yoffe ; Aaron T. Wolf ; Mark Giordano

Source :

RBID : ISTEX:33EE51D6BF42A599043D1268520C487EF37E1C89

English descriptors

Abstract

ABSTRACT: In this paper we seek to identify historical indicators of international freshwater conflict and cooperation and to create a framework to identify and evaluate international river basins at potential risk for future conflict. We derived biophysical, socioeco‐nomic, and geopolitical variables at multiple spatial and temporal scales from GIS datasets of international basins and associated countries, and we tested these variables against a database of historical incidents of international water related cooperation and conflict from 1948 to 1999. International relations over freshwater resources were overwhelmingly cooperative and covered a wide range of issues, including water quantity, water quality, joint management, and hydropower. Conflictive relations tended to center on quantity and infrastructure. No single indicator—including climate, water stress, government type, and dependence on water for agriculture or energy—explained conflict/cooperation over water. Even indicators showing a significant correlation with water conflict, such as high population density, low per capita GDP, and overall unfriendly international relations, explained only a small percentage of data variability. The most promising sets of indicators for water conflict were those associated with rapid or extreme physical or institutional change within a basin (e.g., large dams or internationalization of a basin) and the key role of institutional mechanisms, such as freshwater treaties, in mitigating such conflict.

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DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2003.tb03696.x

Links to Exploration step

ISTEX:33EE51D6BF42A599043D1268520C487EF37E1C89

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In this paper we seek to identify historical indicators of international freshwater conflict and cooperation and to create a framework to identify and evaluate international river basins at potential risk for future conflict. We derived biophysical, socioeco‐nomic, and geopolitical variables at multiple spatial and temporal scales from GIS datasets of international basins and associated countries, and we tested these variables against a database of historical incidents of international water related cooperation and conflict from 1948 to 1999. International relations over freshwater resources were overwhelmingly cooperative and covered a wide range of issues, including water quantity, water quality, joint management, and hydropower. Conflictive relations tended to center on quantity and infrastructure. No single indicator—including climate, water stress, government type, and dependence on water for agriculture or energy—explained conflict/cooperation over water. Even indicators showing a significant correlation with water conflict, such as high population density, low per capita GDP, and overall unfriendly international relations, explained only a small percentage of data variability. The most promising sets of indicators for water conflict were those associated with rapid or extreme physical or institutional change within a basin (e.g., large dams or internationalization of a basin) and the key role of institutional mechanisms, such as freshwater treaties, in mitigating such conflict.</p>
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<p>Paper No. 02036 of the
<i>Journal of the American Water Resources Association.</i>
<b>Discussions are open until April 1, 2004.</b>
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<title>CONFLICT AND COOPERATION OVER INTERNATIONAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES: INDICATORS OF BASINS AT RISR</title>
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<title>CONFLICT AND COOPERATION OVER INTERNATIONAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES: INDICATORS OF BASINS AT RISR1</title>
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<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Shim</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Yoffe</namePart>
<affiliation>Respectively, Diplomacy Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Associate Professor of Geography, Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, 104 Wilkinson Hall, Corvallis, Oregon 97331; and Senior Researcher, International Water Management Institute, P.O. Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka (E‐Mail/Yoffe: SYoffe@mfire.com).</affiliation>
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<namePart type="given">Aaron T.</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Wolf</namePart>
<affiliation>Respectively, Diplomacy Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Associate Professor of Geography, Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, 104 Wilkinson Hall, Corvallis, Oregon 97331; and Senior Researcher, International Water Management Institute, P.O. Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka (E‐Mail/Yoffe: SYoffe@mfire.com).</affiliation>
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<name type="personal">
<namePart type="given">Mark</namePart>
<namePart type="family">Giordano</namePart>
<affiliation>Respectively, Diplomacy Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Associate Professor of Geography, Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, 104 Wilkinson Hall, Corvallis, Oregon 97331; and Senior Researcher, International Water Management Institute, P.O. Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka (E‐Mail/Yoffe: SYoffe@mfire.com).</affiliation>
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<abstract>ABSTRACT: In this paper we seek to identify historical indicators of international freshwater conflict and cooperation and to create a framework to identify and evaluate international river basins at potential risk for future conflict. We derived biophysical, socioeco‐nomic, and geopolitical variables at multiple spatial and temporal scales from GIS datasets of international basins and associated countries, and we tested these variables against a database of historical incidents of international water related cooperation and conflict from 1948 to 1999. International relations over freshwater resources were overwhelmingly cooperative and covered a wide range of issues, including water quantity, water quality, joint management, and hydropower. Conflictive relations tended to center on quantity and infrastructure. No single indicator—including climate, water stress, government type, and dependence on water for agriculture or energy—explained conflict/cooperation over water. Even indicators showing a significant correlation with water conflict, such as high population density, low per capita GDP, and overall unfriendly international relations, explained only a small percentage of data variability. The most promising sets of indicators for water conflict were those associated with rapid or extreme physical or institutional change within a basin (e.g., large dams or internationalization of a basin) and the key role of institutional mechanisms, such as freshwater treaties, in mitigating such conflict.</abstract>
<note type="content">*Paper No. 02036 of the Journal of the American Water Resources Association.Discussions are open until April 1, 2004.</note>
<subject lang="en">
<genre>keywords</genre>
<topic>international river basins</topic>
<topic>conflict</topic>
<topic>cooperation</topic>
<topic>event data</topic>
<topic>geographic information systems</topic>
<topic>water resources geography</topic>
<topic>indicators</topic>
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<title>JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association</title>
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<genre type="journal">journal</genre>
<identifier type="ISSN">1093-474X</identifier>
<identifier type="eISSN">1752-1688</identifier>
<identifier type="DOI">10.1111/(ISSN)1752-1688</identifier>
<identifier type="PublisherID">JAWR</identifier>
<part>
<date>2003</date>
<detail type="volume">
<caption>vol.</caption>
<number>39</number>
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<detail type="issue">
<caption>no.</caption>
<number>5</number>
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<start>1109</start>
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