Assessment of future options for land use in the European Community
Identifieur interne : 000896 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 000895; suivant : 000897Assessment of future options for land use in the European Community
Auteurs : Henk C. Van LatesteijnSource :
- Ecological Engineering [ 0925-8574 ] ; 1995.
Abstract
In the case of agricultural production, technical limitations can be used to explore future options for land use. As opposed to common economic outlooks this type of exploration provides information on the caveats and possibilities for agriculture. The options are calculated by combining a land evaluation (using a Geographical Information System, GIS), crop growth simulation models and Interactive Multiple Goal Linear Programming (IMGP). In the land evaluation, geographical information on soil types and other characteristics like steepness, stoniness, phase etc. is used to assess the suitability for different types of agriculture. Information on climate conditions and crop properties is used in the crop growth simulation models to calculate yield potentials for the suited areas. Economic, social and political goals are dealt with in a linear programming model. The result of this hierarchical modelling is a series of scenarios of optimal land use given the local properties of soils, crops and climate and given the economic, social and political considerations on topics like production costs, spreading of labor, market strategies and environmental conditions. Four different scenarios for future land use in the European Community emerge if the ongoing rise in productivity in agriculture is confronted with four partially conflicting goals of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The scenarios present a picture of the end results in land use if one of these goals is taken to its logical conclusion. The goals are minimizing production costs (scenario Free market and free trade), maintaining regional employment (scenario Regional development), minimizing agricultural land use in favor of nature conservation (scenario Nature and landscape) and minimizing the stress on the environment due to pesticides and nutrients (scenario Environmental protection). All scenarios show results that are in sharp contrast with current opinions on the most probable developments in rural areas. In this paper the methodology will be exemplified and the results for possible land use in the EC will be discussed. Special attention is given to the interpretation of the results of this type of exploration.
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DOI: 10.1016/0925-8574(95)00060-V
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ISTEX:73141FA64DF43D2897309F3C95FE8F9982960203Le document en format XML
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Box 20004, 2500 EA The Hague, The Netherlands</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">ISTEX</idno><idno type="RBID">ISTEX:73141FA64DF43D2897309F3C95FE8F9982960203</idno><date when="1995" year="1995">1995</date><idno type="doi">10.1016/0925-8574(95)00060-V</idno><idno type="url">https://api.istex.fr/document/73141FA64DF43D2897309F3C95FE8F9982960203/fulltext/pdf</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Corpus">000896</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="ISTEX">000896</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title level="a">Assessment of future options for land use in the European Community</title><author><name sortKey="Van Latesteijn, Henk C" sort="Van Latesteijn, Henk C" uniqKey="Van Latesteijn H" first="Henk C." last="Van Latesteijn">Henk C. Van Latesteijn</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy, P.O. 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As opposed to common economic outlooks this type of exploration provides information on the caveats and possibilities for agriculture. The options are calculated by combining a land evaluation (using a Geographical Information System, GIS), crop growth simulation models and Interactive Multiple Goal Linear Programming (IMGP). In the land evaluation, geographical information on soil types and other characteristics like steepness, stoniness, phase etc. is used to assess the suitability for different types of agriculture. Information on climate conditions and crop properties is used in the crop growth simulation models to calculate yield potentials for the suited areas. Economic, social and political goals are dealt with in a linear programming model. The result of this hierarchical modelling is a series of scenarios of optimal land use given the local properties of soils, crops and climate and given the economic, social and political considerations on topics like production costs, spreading of labor, market strategies and environmental conditions. Four different scenarios for future land use in the European Community emerge if the ongoing rise in productivity in agriculture is confronted with four partially conflicting goals of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The scenarios present a picture of the end results in land use if one of these goals is taken to its logical conclusion. The goals are minimizing production costs (scenario Free market and free trade), maintaining regional employment (scenario Regional development), minimizing agricultural land use in favor of nature conservation (scenario Nature and landscape) and minimizing the stress on the environment due to pesticides and nutrients (scenario Environmental protection). All scenarios show results that are in sharp contrast with current opinions on the most probable developments in rural areas. In this paper the methodology will be exemplified and the results for possible land use in the EC will be discussed. Special attention is given to the interpretation of the results of this type of exploration.</div></front></TEI><istex><corpusName>elsevier</corpusName><author><json:item><name>Henk C. van Latesteijn</name><affiliations><json:string>Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy, P.O. 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Four different scenarios for future land use in the European Community emerge if the ongoing rise in productivity in agriculture is confronted with four partially conflicting goals of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The scenarios present a picture of the end results in land use if one of these goals is taken to its logical conclusion. The goals are minimizing production costs (scenario Free market and free trade), maintaining regional employment (scenario Regional development), minimizing agricultural land use in favor of nature conservation (scenario Nature and landscape) and minimizing the stress on the environment due to pesticides and nutrients (scenario Environmental protection). All scenarios show results that are in sharp contrast with current opinions on the most probable developments in rural areas. In this paper the methodology will be exemplified and the results for possible land use in the EC will be discussed. 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The result of this hierarchical modelling is a series of scenarios of optimal land use given the local properties of soils, crops and climate and given the economic, social and political considerations on topics like production costs, spreading of labor, market strategies and environmental conditions. Four different scenarios for future land use in the European Community emerge if the ongoing rise in productivity in agriculture is confronted with four partially conflicting goals of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The scenarios present a picture of the end results in land use if one of these goals is taken to its logical conclusion. The goals are minimizing production costs (scenario Free market and free trade), maintaining regional employment (scenario Regional development), minimizing agricultural land use in favor of nature conservation (scenario Nature and landscape) and minimizing the stress on the environment due to pesticides and nutrients (scenario Environmental protection). All scenarios show results that are in sharp contrast with current opinions on the most probable developments in rural areas. In this paper the methodology will be exemplified and the results for possible land use in the EC will be discussed. 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Information on climate conditions and crop properties is used in the crop growth simulation models to calculate yield potentials for the suited areas. Economic, social and political goals are dealt with in a linear programming model. The result of this hierarchical modelling is a series of scenarios of optimal land use given the local properties of soils, crops and climate and given the economic, social and political considerations on topics like production costs, spreading of labor, market strategies and environmental conditions. Four different scenarios for future land use in the European Community emerge if the ongoing rise in productivity in agriculture is confronted with four partially conflicting goals of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The scenarios present a picture of the end results in land use if one of these goals is taken to its logical conclusion. 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The options are calculated by combining a land evaluation (using a Geographical Information System, GIS), crop growth simulation models and Interactive Multiple Goal Linear Programming (IMGP). In the land evaluation, geographical information on soil types and other characteristics like steepness, stoniness, phase etc. is used to assess the suitability for different types of agriculture. Information on climate conditions and crop properties is used in the crop growth simulation models to calculate yield potentials for the suited areas. Economic, social and political goals are dealt with in a linear programming model. The result of this hierarchical modelling is a series of scenarios of optimal land use given the local properties of soils, crops and climate and given the economic, social and political considerations on topics like production costs, spreading of labor, market strategies and environmental conditions. Four different scenarios for future land use in the European Community emerge if the ongoing rise in productivity in agriculture is confronted with four partially conflicting goals of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The scenarios present a picture of the end results in land use if one of these goals is taken to its logical conclusion. The goals are minimizing production costs (scenario Free market and free trade), maintaining regional employment (scenario Regional development), minimizing agricultural land use in favor of nature conservation (scenario Nature and landscape) and minimizing the stress on the environment due to pesticides and nutrients (scenario Environmental protection). All scenarios show results that are in sharp contrast with current opinions on the most probable developments in rural areas. In this paper the methodology will be exemplified and the results for possible land use in the EC will be discussed. Special attention is given to the interpretation of the results of this type of exploration.</abstract><subject><genre>Keywords</genre><topic>Agricultural production</topic><topic>European Community</topic><topic>Geographical Information System</topic></subject><relatedItem type="host"><titleInfo><title>Ecological Engineering</title></titleInfo><titleInfo type="abbreviated"><title>ECOENG</title></titleInfo><genre type="journal">journal</genre><originInfo><dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">199504</dateIssued></originInfo><identifier type="ISSN">0925-8574</identifier><identifier type="PII">S0925-8574(00)X0007-9</identifier><part><date>199504</date><detail type="issue"><title>Ecological Engineering Applied to Agricultural and Land Use Planning</title></detail><detail type="volume"><number>4</number><caption>vol.</caption></detail><detail type="issue"><number>3</number><caption>no.</caption></detail><extent unit="issue pages"><start>163</start><end>231</end></extent><extent unit="pages"><start>211</start><end>222</end></extent></part></relatedItem><identifier type="istex">73141FA64DF43D2897309F3C95FE8F9982960203</identifier><identifier type="DOI">10.1016/0925-8574(95)00060-V</identifier><identifier type="PII">0925-8574(95)00060-V</identifier><recordInfo><recordContentSource>ELSEVIER</recordContentSource></recordInfo></mods></metadata></istex></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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