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Simulation of changes in the spatial pattern of land use in China

Identifieur interne : 000859 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 000858; suivant : 000860

Simulation of changes in the spatial pattern of land use in China

Auteurs : P. H. Verburg ; A. Veldkamp ; L. O. Fresco

Source :

RBID : ISTEX:4F3511F88C70EB6A4A19EB7ABE39A2A65510DE2C

Abstract

This paper presents a model for simulating country-wide changes in the land use pattern of China. It is based upon an empirical analysis of the spatial distribution of land use types in China which takes into account socioeconomic as well as geophysical variables. The empirical analysis indicates that a reasonably complete description of the land use distribution can be made by including demographic, soil-related, geomorphological and climatic variables. A multi-scale approach is followed to capture top-down as well as bottom-up factors affecting land use allocation. Competition between different land use types determines which changes will actually take place. The most important land use conversions in China, caused by urbanization, desertification and afforestation, are simulated for a scenario based upon a trend analysis of present land use dynamics. The spatially explicit results allow an analysis of the consequences of a decrease in cultivated area and related production capacity. A preliminary analysis shows that the average production capacity of the lost arable lands is somewhat less than the average production capacity of all agricultural lands together.

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DOI: 10.1016/S0143-6228(99)00003-X

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ISTEX:4F3511F88C70EB6A4A19EB7ABE39A2A65510DE2C

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<note type="content">Fig. 1: Structure of the main components of the CLUE modelling framework.</note>
<note type="content">Fig. 2: Representation of the multi-scale data and modelling structure for China and subdivision into regions.</note>
<note type="content">Fig. 3: Development of total, urban and rural population for China during the simulation period, based on US Bureau of the Census (1997) and UN (1995).</note>
<note type="content">Fig. 4: Changes in percentage cover for the different land use types during the simulation period (1999-2010).</note>
<note type="content">Fig. 5: Changes in percentage cover of cultivated land during 1990–3 according to official statistics.</note>
<note type="content">Table 1: Cultivated area in China (estimates)</note>
<note type="content">Table 2: Living space per farmer, urban resident and per capita built-up area including residential, industrial, infrastructural and mining area (m2)</note>
<note type="content">Table 3: Complete set of variables used in the statistical analysis</note>
<note type="content">Table 4: Variables, parameter estimates and standardized parameter estimates of multiple regression models explaining the distribution of the different land use types at the coarse allocation scale (sorted according to decreasing absolute standardized parameter estimate)</note>
<note type="content">Table 5: Variables and standardized parameter estimates of multiple regression models explaining the distribution of cultivated land by region at the fine allocation scale (sorted according to decreasing absolute standardized parameter estimate)</note>
<note type="content">Table 6: Yearly land use change rates at the national scale used in the simulations as compared to estimates of Smil (1993) for the period 1989–2000 and statistics of current trends</note>
<note type="content">Table 7: Average characteristics of all cultivated land and characteristics of cultivated land converted during the simulation period (1990–2010)</note>
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<languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm>
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<abstract lang="en">This paper presents a model for simulating country-wide changes in the land use pattern of China. It is based upon an empirical analysis of the spatial distribution of land use types in China which takes into account socioeconomic as well as geophysical variables. The empirical analysis indicates that a reasonably complete description of the land use distribution can be made by including demographic, soil-related, geomorphological and climatic variables. A multi-scale approach is followed to capture top-down as well as bottom-up factors affecting land use allocation. Competition between different land use types determines which changes will actually take place. The most important land use conversions in China, caused by urbanization, desertification and afforestation, are simulated for a scenario based upon a trend analysis of present land use dynamics. The spatially explicit results allow an analysis of the consequences of a decrease in cultivated area and related production capacity. A preliminary analysis shows that the average production capacity of the lost arable lands is somewhat less than the average production capacity of all agricultural lands together.</abstract>
<note type="content">Fig. 1: Structure of the main components of the CLUE modelling framework.</note>
<note type="content">Fig. 2: Representation of the multi-scale data and modelling structure for China and subdivision into regions.</note>
<note type="content">Fig. 3: Development of total, urban and rural population for China during the simulation period, based on US Bureau of the Census (1997) and UN (1995).</note>
<note type="content">Fig. 4: Changes in percentage cover for the different land use types during the simulation period (1999-2010).</note>
<note type="content">Fig. 5: Changes in percentage cover of cultivated land during 1990–3 according to official statistics.</note>
<note type="content">Table 1: Cultivated area in China (estimates)</note>
<note type="content">Table 2: Living space per farmer, urban resident and per capita built-up area including residential, industrial, infrastructural and mining area (m2)</note>
<note type="content">Table 3: Complete set of variables used in the statistical analysis</note>
<note type="content">Table 4: Variables, parameter estimates and standardized parameter estimates of multiple regression models explaining the distribution of the different land use types at the coarse allocation scale (sorted according to decreasing absolute standardized parameter estimate)</note>
<note type="content">Table 5: Variables and standardized parameter estimates of multiple regression models explaining the distribution of cultivated land by region at the fine allocation scale (sorted according to decreasing absolute standardized parameter estimate)</note>
<note type="content">Table 6: Yearly land use change rates at the national scale used in the simulations as compared to estimates of Smil (1993) for the period 1989–2000 and statistics of current trends</note>
<note type="content">Table 7: Average characteristics of all cultivated land and characteristics of cultivated land converted during the simulation period (1990–2010)</note>
<subject>
<genre>Keywords</genre>
<topic>Agricultural land</topic>
<topic>China</topic>
<topic>Geographical Information Systems (GIS)</topic>
<topic>Land use change</topic>
<topic>Land use model</topic>
</subject>
<relatedItem type="host">
<titleInfo>
<title>Applied Geography</title>
</titleInfo>
<titleInfo type="abbreviated">
<title>JAPG</title>
</titleInfo>
<genre type="journal">journal</genre>
<originInfo>
<dateIssued encoding="w3cdtf">199907</dateIssued>
</originInfo>
<identifier type="ISSN">0143-6228</identifier>
<identifier type="PII">S0143-6228(00)X0019-7</identifier>
<part>
<date>199907</date>
<detail type="volume">
<number>19</number>
<caption>vol.</caption>
</detail>
<detail type="issue">
<number>3</number>
<caption>no.</caption>
</detail>
<extent unit="issue pages">
<start>179</start>
<end>274</end>
</extent>
<extent unit="pages">
<start>211</start>
<end>233</end>
</extent>
</part>
</relatedItem>
<identifier type="istex">4F3511F88C70EB6A4A19EB7ABE39A2A65510DE2C</identifier>
<identifier type="DOI">10.1016/S0143-6228(99)00003-X</identifier>
<identifier type="PII">S0143-6228(99)00003-X</identifier>
<accessCondition type="use and reproduction" contentType="copyright">©1999 Elsevier Science Ltd</accessCondition>
<recordInfo>
<recordContentSource>ELSEVIER</recordContentSource>
<recordOrigin>Elsevier Science Ltd, ©1999</recordOrigin>
</recordInfo>
</mods>
</metadata>
<serie></serie>
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