Decision analysis as a tool for integrating simulation with expert systems when risk and uncertainty are important
Identifieur interne : 000726 ( Istex/Corpus ); précédent : 000725; suivant : 000727Decision analysis as a tool for integrating simulation with expert systems when risk and uncertainty are important
Auteurs : Harvey J. Gold ; Gail G. Wilkerson ; Yanan Yu ; Ronald E. StinnerSource :
- Computers and Electronics in Agriculture [ 0168-1699 ] ; 1990.
Abstract
Risk and uncertainty are important components of agricultural decision making. The methodology of applied decision analysis is especially useful in addressing such problems, but has not been widely integrated with expert systems. One problem has been the difficulty of handling uncertainty within the expert system framework in a way which is logically consistent with rational decision criteria. An additional problem in agriculture is the need to combine uncertain or incomplete information from simulations and statistical studies with the subjective knowledge of one or several experts. In this paper, it is argued that Bayesian probability theory provides a natural approach, and a methodology is developed for combining diverse sources of information within the framework of an expert system. The methodology is developed within the context of an expert system for protection of soybeans against corn earworm, using information from HELSIM, a heliothis population model (R. Stinner) and from the SOYGRO soybean crop model (G. Wilkerson).
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/0168-1699(90)90039-R
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Wilkerson</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 U.S.A.</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Yanan" sort="Yu, Yanan" uniqKey="Yu Y" first="Yanan" last="Yu">Yanan Yu</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 U.S.A.</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Stinner, Ronald E" sort="Stinner, Ronald E" uniqKey="Stinner R" first="Ronald E." last="Stinner">Ronald E. Stinner</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 U.S.A.</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">ISTEX</idno><idno type="RBID">ISTEX:4FFC1CFD56AC8EBFF8E2AA4B77C369A092A6633A</idno><date when="1990" year="1990">1990</date><idno type="doi">10.1016/0168-1699(90)90039-R</idno><idno type="url">https://api.istex.fr/document/4FFC1CFD56AC8EBFF8E2AA4B77C369A092A6633A/fulltext/pdf</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Corpus">000726</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="ISTEX">000726</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title level="a">Decision analysis as a tool for integrating simulation with expert systems when risk and uncertainty are important</title><author><name sortKey="Gold, Harvey J" sort="Gold, Harvey J" uniqKey="Gold H" first="Harvey J." last="Gold">Harvey J. Gold</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 U.S.A.</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wilkerson, Gail G" sort="Wilkerson, Gail G" uniqKey="Wilkerson G" first="Gail G." last="Wilkerson">Gail G. Wilkerson</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 U.S.A.</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Yanan" sort="Yu, Yanan" uniqKey="Yu Y" first="Yanan" last="Yu">Yanan Yu</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 U.S.A.</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Stinner, Ronald E" sort="Stinner, Ronald E" uniqKey="Stinner R" first="Ronald E." last="Stinner">Ronald E. Stinner</name><affiliation><mods:affiliation>North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 U.S.A.</mods:affiliation></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j">Computers and Electronics in Agriculture</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">COMPAG</title><idno type="ISSN">0168-1699</idno><imprint><publisher>ELSEVIER</publisher><date type="published" when="1990">1990</date><biblScope unit="volume">4</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">4</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="343">343</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="360">360</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0168-1699</idno></series><idno type="istex">4FFC1CFD56AC8EBFF8E2AA4B77C369A092A6633A</idno><idno type="DOI">10.1016/0168-1699(90)90039-R</idno><idno type="PII">0168-1699(90)90039-R</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0168-1699</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Risk and uncertainty are important components of agricultural decision making. 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