Impact of the 2003 heatwave on all-cause mortality in 9 french cities
Identifieur interne : 000207 ( PascalFrancis/Corpus ); précédent : 000206; suivant : 000208Impact of the 2003 heatwave on all-cause mortality in 9 french cities
Auteurs : Alain Le Tertre ; Agnès Lefranc ; Daniel Eilstein ; Christophe Declercq ; Sylvia Medina ; Myriam Blanchard ; Benoit Chardon ; Pascal Fabre ; Laurent Filleul ; Jean-Francois Jusot ; Laurence Pascal ; Hélène Prouvost ; Sylvie Cassadou ; Martine LedransSource :
- Epidemiology : (Cambridge, Mass.) [ 1044-3983 ] ; 2006.
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Abstract
Background: A heatwave occurred in France in August 2003, with an accompanying excess of all-cause mortality. This study quantifies this excess mortality and investigates a possible harvesting effect in the few weeks after the heatwave. Methods: A time-series study using a Poisson regression model with regression splines to control for nonlinear confounders was used to analyze the correlation between heatwave variable and mortality in 9 French cities. Results: After controlling for long-term and seasonal time trends and the usual effects of temperature and air pollution, we estimated that 3,096 extra deaths resulted from the heatwave. The maximum daily relative risk of mortality during the heatwave (compared with expected deaths at that time of year) ranged from 1.16 in Le Havre to 5.00 in Paris. There was little evidence of mortality displacement in the few weeks after the heatwave, with an estimated deficit of 253 deaths at the end of the period. Conclusions: The heatwave in France during August 2003 was associated with a large increase in the number of deaths. The impact estimated using a time-series design was consistent with crude previous estimates of the impact of the heatwave. This finding suggests that neither air pollution nor long-term and seasonal trends confounded previous estimates. There was no evidence to suggest that the extras deaths associated with the heatwave were simply brought forward in time.
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NO : | PASCAL 06-0331218 INIST |
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ET : | Impact of the 2003 heatwave on all-cause mortality in 9 french cities |
AU : | LE TERTRE (Alain); LEFRANC (Agnès); EILSTEIN (Daniel); DECLERCQ (Christophe); MEDINA (Sylvia); BLANCHARD (Myriam); CHARDON (Benoit); FABRE (Pascal); FILLEUL (Laurent); JUSOT (Jean-Francois); PASCAL (Laurence); PROUVOST (Hélène); CASSADOU (Sylvie); LEDRANS (Martine) |
AF : | Environmental Health Department, Institut de Veille Sanitaire/Paris/France (1 aut., 3 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut., 8 aut., 9 aut., 10 aut., 11 aut., 12 aut., 13 aut., 14 aut.); Health Regional Observatory/Paris/France (2 aut., 7 aut.); Health Regional Observatory/Lille/France (4 aut.) |
DT : | Publication en série; Niveau analytique |
SO : | Epidemiology : (Cambridge, Mass.); ISSN 1044-3983; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; Vol. 17; No. 1; Pp. 75-79; Bibl. 28 ref. |
LA : | Anglais |
EA : | Background: A heatwave occurred in France in August 2003, with an accompanying excess of all-cause mortality. This study quantifies this excess mortality and investigates a possible harvesting effect in the few weeks after the heatwave. Methods: A time-series study using a Poisson regression model with regression splines to control for nonlinear confounders was used to analyze the correlation between heatwave variable and mortality in 9 French cities. Results: After controlling for long-term and seasonal time trends and the usual effects of temperature and air pollution, we estimated that 3,096 extra deaths resulted from the heatwave. The maximum daily relative risk of mortality during the heatwave (compared with expected deaths at that time of year) ranged from 1.16 in Le Havre to 5.00 in Paris. There was little evidence of mortality displacement in the few weeks after the heatwave, with an estimated deficit of 253 deaths at the end of the period. Conclusions: The heatwave in France during August 2003 was associated with a large increase in the number of deaths. The impact estimated using a time-series design was consistent with crude previous estimates of the impact of the heatwave. This finding suggests that neither air pollution nor long-term and seasonal trends confounded previous estimates. There was no evidence to suggest that the extras deaths associated with the heatwave were simply brought forward in time. |
CC : | 002B30A11 |
FD : | 2003; Chaleur; Mortalité; Epidémiologie; Température air; France; Milieu urbain; Santé publique; Eté; Homme; Canicule |
FG : | Europe |
ED : | 2003; Heat; Mortality; Epidemiology; Air temperature; France; Urban environment; Public health; Summer; Human; Heat wawe |
EG : | Europe |
SD : | 2003; Calor; Mortalidad; Epidemiología; Temperatura aire; Francia; Medio urbano; Salud pública; Verano; Hombre; Canícula |
LO : | INIST-26076.354000134558040100 |
ID : | 06-0331218 |
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Pascal:06-0331218Le document en format XML
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<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a">Impact of the 2003 heatwave on all-cause mortality in 9 french cities</title>
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<series><title level="j" type="main">Epidemiology : (Cambridge, Mass.)</title>
<title level="j" type="abbreviated">Epidemiology : (Camb. Mass.)</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1044-3983</idno>
<imprint><date when="2006">2006</date>
</imprint>
</series>
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<seriesStmt><title level="j" type="main">Epidemiology : (Cambridge, Mass.)</title>
<title level="j" type="abbreviated">Epidemiology : (Camb. Mass.)</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1044-3983</idno>
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<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>2003</term>
<term>Air temperature</term>
<term>Epidemiology</term>
<term>France</term>
<term>Heat</term>
<term>Heat wawe</term>
<term>Human</term>
<term>Mortality</term>
<term>Public health</term>
<term>Summer</term>
<term>Urban environment</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr"><term>2003</term>
<term>Chaleur</term>
<term>Mortalité</term>
<term>Epidémiologie</term>
<term>Température air</term>
<term>France</term>
<term>Milieu urbain</term>
<term>Santé publique</term>
<term>Eté</term>
<term>Homme</term>
<term>Canicule</term>
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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Background: A heatwave occurred in France in August 2003, with an accompanying excess of all-cause mortality. This study quantifies this excess mortality and investigates a possible harvesting effect in the few weeks after the heatwave. Methods: A time-series study using a Poisson regression model with regression splines to control for nonlinear confounders was used to analyze the correlation between heatwave variable and mortality in 9 French cities. Results: After controlling for long-term and seasonal time trends and the usual effects of temperature and air pollution, we estimated that 3,096 extra deaths resulted from the heatwave. The maximum daily relative risk of mortality during the heatwave (compared with expected deaths at that time of year) ranged from 1.16 in Le Havre to 5.00 in Paris. There was little evidence of mortality displacement in the few weeks after the heatwave, with an estimated deficit of 253 deaths at the end of the period. Conclusions: The heatwave in France during August 2003 was associated with a large increase in the number of deaths. The impact estimated using a time-series design was consistent with crude previous estimates of the impact of the heatwave. This finding suggests that neither air pollution nor long-term and seasonal trends confounded previous estimates. There was no evidence to suggest that the extras deaths associated with the heatwave were simply brought forward in time.</div>
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<fA08 i1="01" i2="1" l="ENG"><s1>Impact of the 2003 heatwave on all-cause mortality in 9 french cities</s1>
</fA08>
<fA11 i1="01" i2="1"><s1>LE TERTRE (Alain)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="02" i2="1"><s1>LEFRANC (Agnès)</s1>
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<fA11 i1="03" i2="1"><s1>EILSTEIN (Daniel)</s1>
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<fA11 i1="04" i2="1"><s1>DECLERCQ (Christophe)</s1>
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<fA11 i1="05" i2="1"><s1>MEDINA (Sylvia)</s1>
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<fA11 i1="06" i2="1"><s1>BLANCHARD (Myriam)</s1>
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<fA11 i1="07" i2="1"><s1>CHARDON (Benoit)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="08" i2="1"><s1>FABRE (Pascal)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="09" i2="1"><s1>FILLEUL (Laurent)</s1>
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<fA11 i1="10" i2="1"><s1>JUSOT (Jean-Francois)</s1>
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<fA11 i1="11" i2="1"><s1>PASCAL (Laurence)</s1>
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<fA11 i1="12" i2="1"><s1>PROUVOST (Hélène)</s1>
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<fA11 i1="13" i2="1"><s1>CASSADOU (Sylvie)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA11 i1="14" i2="1"><s1>LEDRANS (Martine)</s1>
</fA11>
<fA14 i1="01"><s1>Environmental Health Department, Institut de Veille Sanitaire</s1>
<s2>Paris</s2>
<s3>FRA</s3>
<sZ>1 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>3 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>5 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>6 aut.</sZ>
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<sZ>10 aut.</sZ>
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<fA14 i1="02"><s1>Health Regional Observatory</s1>
<s2>Paris</s2>
<s3>FRA</s3>
<sZ>2 aut.</sZ>
<sZ>7 aut.</sZ>
</fA14>
<fA14 i1="03"><s1>Health Regional Observatory</s1>
<s2>Lille</s2>
<s3>FRA</s3>
<sZ>4 aut.</sZ>
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<fA20><s1>75-79</s1>
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<s1>© 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.</s1>
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<fA45><s0>28 ref.</s0>
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<fC01 i1="01" l="ENG"><s0>Background: A heatwave occurred in France in August 2003, with an accompanying excess of all-cause mortality. This study quantifies this excess mortality and investigates a possible harvesting effect in the few weeks after the heatwave. Methods: A time-series study using a Poisson regression model with regression splines to control for nonlinear confounders was used to analyze the correlation between heatwave variable and mortality in 9 French cities. Results: After controlling for long-term and seasonal time trends and the usual effects of temperature and air pollution, we estimated that 3,096 extra deaths resulted from the heatwave. The maximum daily relative risk of mortality during the heatwave (compared with expected deaths at that time of year) ranged from 1.16 in Le Havre to 5.00 in Paris. There was little evidence of mortality displacement in the few weeks after the heatwave, with an estimated deficit of 253 deaths at the end of the period. Conclusions: The heatwave in France during August 2003 was associated with a large increase in the number of deaths. The impact estimated using a time-series design was consistent with crude previous estimates of the impact of the heatwave. This finding suggests that neither air pollution nor long-term and seasonal trends confounded previous estimates. There was no evidence to suggest that the extras deaths associated with the heatwave were simply brought forward in time.</s0>
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<s5>08</s5>
</fC03>
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<s5>08</s5>
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<s4>CD</s4>
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<s4>CD</s4>
<s5>96</s5>
</fC03>
<fC07 i1="01" i2="X" l="FRE"><s0>Europe</s0>
<s2>NG</s2>
</fC07>
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<s2>NG</s2>
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<server><NO>PASCAL 06-0331218 INIST</NO>
<ET>Impact of the 2003 heatwave on all-cause mortality in 9 french cities</ET>
<AU>LE TERTRE (Alain); LEFRANC (Agnès); EILSTEIN (Daniel); DECLERCQ (Christophe); MEDINA (Sylvia); BLANCHARD (Myriam); CHARDON (Benoit); FABRE (Pascal); FILLEUL (Laurent); JUSOT (Jean-Francois); PASCAL (Laurence); PROUVOST (Hélène); CASSADOU (Sylvie); LEDRANS (Martine)</AU>
<AF>Environmental Health Department, Institut de Veille Sanitaire/Paris/France (1 aut., 3 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut., 8 aut., 9 aut., 10 aut., 11 aut., 12 aut., 13 aut., 14 aut.); Health Regional Observatory/Paris/France (2 aut., 7 aut.); Health Regional Observatory/Lille/France (4 aut.)</AF>
<DT>Publication en série; Niveau analytique</DT>
<SO>Epidemiology : (Cambridge, Mass.); ISSN 1044-3983; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; Vol. 17; No. 1; Pp. 75-79; Bibl. 28 ref.</SO>
<LA>Anglais</LA>
<EA>Background: A heatwave occurred in France in August 2003, with an accompanying excess of all-cause mortality. This study quantifies this excess mortality and investigates a possible harvesting effect in the few weeks after the heatwave. Methods: A time-series study using a Poisson regression model with regression splines to control for nonlinear confounders was used to analyze the correlation between heatwave variable and mortality in 9 French cities. Results: After controlling for long-term and seasonal time trends and the usual effects of temperature and air pollution, we estimated that 3,096 extra deaths resulted from the heatwave. The maximum daily relative risk of mortality during the heatwave (compared with expected deaths at that time of year) ranged from 1.16 in Le Havre to 5.00 in Paris. There was little evidence of mortality displacement in the few weeks after the heatwave, with an estimated deficit of 253 deaths at the end of the period. Conclusions: The heatwave in France during August 2003 was associated with a large increase in the number of deaths. The impact estimated using a time-series design was consistent with crude previous estimates of the impact of the heatwave. This finding suggests that neither air pollution nor long-term and seasonal trends confounded previous estimates. There was no evidence to suggest that the extras deaths associated with the heatwave were simply brought forward in time.</EA>
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<ED>2003; Heat; Mortality; Epidemiology; Air temperature; France; Urban environment; Public health; Summer; Human; Heat wawe</ED>
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<SD>2003; Calor; Mortalidad; Epidemiología; Temperatura aire; Francia; Medio urbano; Salud pública; Verano; Hombre; Canícula</SD>
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