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Impact of the 2003 heatwave on all-cause mortality in 9 french cities

Identifieur interne : 000207 ( PascalFrancis/Corpus ); précédent : 000206; suivant : 000208

Impact of the 2003 heatwave on all-cause mortality in 9 french cities

Auteurs : Alain Le Tertre ; Agnès Lefranc ; Daniel Eilstein ; Christophe Declercq ; Sylvia Medina ; Myriam Blanchard ; Benoit Chardon ; Pascal Fabre ; Laurent Filleul ; Jean-Francois Jusot ; Laurence Pascal ; Hélène Prouvost ; Sylvie Cassadou ; Martine Ledrans

Source :

RBID : Pascal:06-0331218

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Background: A heatwave occurred in France in August 2003, with an accompanying excess of all-cause mortality. This study quantifies this excess mortality and investigates a possible harvesting effect in the few weeks after the heatwave. Methods: A time-series study using a Poisson regression model with regression splines to control for nonlinear confounders was used to analyze the correlation between heatwave variable and mortality in 9 French cities. Results: After controlling for long-term and seasonal time trends and the usual effects of temperature and air pollution, we estimated that 3,096 extra deaths resulted from the heatwave. The maximum daily relative risk of mortality during the heatwave (compared with expected deaths at that time of year) ranged from 1.16 in Le Havre to 5.00 in Paris. There was little evidence of mortality displacement in the few weeks after the heatwave, with an estimated deficit of 253 deaths at the end of the period. Conclusions: The heatwave in France during August 2003 was associated with a large increase in the number of deaths. The impact estimated using a time-series design was consistent with crude previous estimates of the impact of the heatwave. This finding suggests that neither air pollution nor long-term and seasonal trends confounded previous estimates. There was no evidence to suggest that the extras deaths associated with the heatwave were simply brought forward in time.

Notice en format standard (ISO 2709)

Pour connaître la documentation sur le format Inist Standard.

pA  
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A03   1    @0 Epidemiology : (Camb. Mass.)
A05       @2 17
A06       @2 1
A08 01  1  ENG  @1 Impact of the 2003 heatwave on all-cause mortality in 9 french cities
A11 01  1    @1 LE TERTRE (Alain)
A11 02  1    @1 LEFRANC (Agnès)
A11 03  1    @1 EILSTEIN (Daniel)
A11 04  1    @1 DECLERCQ (Christophe)
A11 05  1    @1 MEDINA (Sylvia)
A11 06  1    @1 BLANCHARD (Myriam)
A11 07  1    @1 CHARDON (Benoit)
A11 08  1    @1 FABRE (Pascal)
A11 09  1    @1 FILLEUL (Laurent)
A11 10  1    @1 JUSOT (Jean-Francois)
A11 11  1    @1 PASCAL (Laurence)
A11 12  1    @1 PROUVOST (Hélène)
A11 13  1    @1 CASSADOU (Sylvie)
A11 14  1    @1 LEDRANS (Martine)
A14 01      @1 Environmental Health Department, Institut de Veille Sanitaire @2 Paris @3 FRA @Z 1 aut. @Z 3 aut. @Z 5 aut. @Z 6 aut. @Z 8 aut. @Z 9 aut. @Z 10 aut. @Z 11 aut. @Z 12 aut. @Z 13 aut. @Z 14 aut.
A14 02      @1 Health Regional Observatory @2 Paris @3 FRA @Z 2 aut. @Z 7 aut.
A14 03      @1 Health Regional Observatory @2 Lille @3 FRA @Z 4 aut.
A20       @1 75-79
A21       @1 2006
A23 01      @0 ENG
A43 01      @1 INIST @2 26076 @5 354000134558040100
A44       @0 0000 @1 © 2006 INIST-CNRS. All rights reserved.
A45       @0 28 ref.
A47 01  1    @0 06-0331218
A60       @1 P
A61       @0 A
A64 01  1    @0 Epidemiology : (Cambridge, Mass.)
A66 01      @0 USA
C01 01    ENG  @0 Background: A heatwave occurred in France in August 2003, with an accompanying excess of all-cause mortality. This study quantifies this excess mortality and investigates a possible harvesting effect in the few weeks after the heatwave. Methods: A time-series study using a Poisson regression model with regression splines to control for nonlinear confounders was used to analyze the correlation between heatwave variable and mortality in 9 French cities. Results: After controlling for long-term and seasonal time trends and the usual effects of temperature and air pollution, we estimated that 3,096 extra deaths resulted from the heatwave. The maximum daily relative risk of mortality during the heatwave (compared with expected deaths at that time of year) ranged from 1.16 in Le Havre to 5.00 in Paris. There was little evidence of mortality displacement in the few weeks after the heatwave, with an estimated deficit of 253 deaths at the end of the period. Conclusions: The heatwave in France during August 2003 was associated with a large increase in the number of deaths. The impact estimated using a time-series design was consistent with crude previous estimates of the impact of the heatwave. This finding suggests that neither air pollution nor long-term and seasonal trends confounded previous estimates. There was no evidence to suggest that the extras deaths associated with the heatwave were simply brought forward in time.
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C03 01  X  FRE  @0 2003 @5 02
C03 01  X  ENG  @0 2003 @5 02
C03 01  X  SPA  @0 2003 @5 02
C03 02  X  FRE  @0 Chaleur @5 03
C03 02  X  ENG  @0 Heat @5 03
C03 02  X  SPA  @0 Calor @5 03
C03 03  X  FRE  @0 Mortalité @5 05
C03 03  X  ENG  @0 Mortality @5 05
C03 03  X  SPA  @0 Mortalidad @5 05
C03 04  X  FRE  @0 Epidémiologie @5 06
C03 04  X  ENG  @0 Epidemiology @5 06
C03 04  X  SPA  @0 Epidemiología @5 06
C03 05  X  FRE  @0 Température air @5 08
C03 05  X  ENG  @0 Air temperature @5 08
C03 05  X  SPA  @0 Temperatura aire @5 08
C03 06  X  FRE  @0 France @2 NG @5 09
C03 06  X  ENG  @0 France @2 NG @5 09
C03 06  X  SPA  @0 Francia @2 NG @5 09
C03 07  X  FRE  @0 Milieu urbain @5 11
C03 07  X  ENG  @0 Urban environment @5 11
C03 07  X  SPA  @0 Medio urbano @5 11
C03 08  X  FRE  @0 Santé publique @5 12
C03 08  X  ENG  @0 Public health @5 12
C03 08  X  SPA  @0 Salud pública @5 12
C03 09  X  FRE  @0 Eté @5 17
C03 09  X  ENG  @0 Summer @5 17
C03 09  X  SPA  @0 Verano @5 17
C03 10  X  FRE  @0 Homme @5 18
C03 10  X  ENG  @0 Human @5 18
C03 10  X  SPA  @0 Hombre @5 18
C03 11  X  FRE  @0 Canicule @4 CD @5 96
C03 11  X  ENG  @0 Heat wawe @4 CD @5 96
C03 11  X  SPA  @0 Canícula @4 CD @5 96
C07 01  X  FRE  @0 Europe @2 NG
C07 01  X  ENG  @0 Europe @2 NG
C07 01  X  SPA  @0 Europa @2 NG
N21       @1 212

Format Inist (serveur)

NO : PASCAL 06-0331218 INIST
ET : Impact of the 2003 heatwave on all-cause mortality in 9 french cities
AU : LE TERTRE (Alain); LEFRANC (Agnès); EILSTEIN (Daniel); DECLERCQ (Christophe); MEDINA (Sylvia); BLANCHARD (Myriam); CHARDON (Benoit); FABRE (Pascal); FILLEUL (Laurent); JUSOT (Jean-Francois); PASCAL (Laurence); PROUVOST (Hélène); CASSADOU (Sylvie); LEDRANS (Martine)
AF : Environmental Health Department, Institut de Veille Sanitaire/Paris/France (1 aut., 3 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut., 8 aut., 9 aut., 10 aut., 11 aut., 12 aut., 13 aut., 14 aut.); Health Regional Observatory/Paris/France (2 aut., 7 aut.); Health Regional Observatory/Lille/France (4 aut.)
DT : Publication en série; Niveau analytique
SO : Epidemiology : (Cambridge, Mass.); ISSN 1044-3983; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; Vol. 17; No. 1; Pp. 75-79; Bibl. 28 ref.
LA : Anglais
EA : Background: A heatwave occurred in France in August 2003, with an accompanying excess of all-cause mortality. This study quantifies this excess mortality and investigates a possible harvesting effect in the few weeks after the heatwave. Methods: A time-series study using a Poisson regression model with regression splines to control for nonlinear confounders was used to analyze the correlation between heatwave variable and mortality in 9 French cities. Results: After controlling for long-term and seasonal time trends and the usual effects of temperature and air pollution, we estimated that 3,096 extra deaths resulted from the heatwave. The maximum daily relative risk of mortality during the heatwave (compared with expected deaths at that time of year) ranged from 1.16 in Le Havre to 5.00 in Paris. There was little evidence of mortality displacement in the few weeks after the heatwave, with an estimated deficit of 253 deaths at the end of the period. Conclusions: The heatwave in France during August 2003 was associated with a large increase in the number of deaths. The impact estimated using a time-series design was consistent with crude previous estimates of the impact of the heatwave. This finding suggests that neither air pollution nor long-term and seasonal trends confounded previous estimates. There was no evidence to suggest that the extras deaths associated with the heatwave were simply brought forward in time.
CC : 002B30A11
FD : 2003; Chaleur; Mortalité; Epidémiologie; Température air; France; Milieu urbain; Santé publique; Eté; Homme; Canicule
FG : Europe
ED : 2003; Heat; Mortality; Epidemiology; Air temperature; France; Urban environment; Public health; Summer; Human; Heat wawe
EG : Europe
SD : 2003; Calor; Mortalidad; Epidemiología; Temperatura aire; Francia; Medio urbano; Salud pública; Verano; Hombre; Canícula
LO : INIST-26076.354000134558040100
ID : 06-0331218

Links to Exploration step

Pascal:06-0331218

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<name sortKey="Ledrans, Martine" sort="Ledrans, Martine" uniqKey="Ledrans M" first="Martine" last="Ledrans">Martine Ledrans</name>
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<title level="j" type="main">Epidemiology : (Cambridge, Mass.)</title>
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<term>2003</term>
<term>Air temperature</term>
<term>Epidemiology</term>
<term>France</term>
<term>Heat</term>
<term>Heat wawe</term>
<term>Human</term>
<term>Mortality</term>
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<term>2003</term>
<term>Chaleur</term>
<term>Mortalité</term>
<term>Epidémiologie</term>
<term>Température air</term>
<term>France</term>
<term>Milieu urbain</term>
<term>Santé publique</term>
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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Background: A heatwave occurred in France in August 2003, with an accompanying excess of all-cause mortality. This study quantifies this excess mortality and investigates a possible harvesting effect in the few weeks after the heatwave. Methods: A time-series study using a Poisson regression model with regression splines to control for nonlinear confounders was used to analyze the correlation between heatwave variable and mortality in 9 French cities. Results: After controlling for long-term and seasonal time trends and the usual effects of temperature and air pollution, we estimated that 3,096 extra deaths resulted from the heatwave. The maximum daily relative risk of mortality during the heatwave (compared with expected deaths at that time of year) ranged from 1.16 in Le Havre to 5.00 in Paris. There was little evidence of mortality displacement in the few weeks after the heatwave, with an estimated deficit of 253 deaths at the end of the period. Conclusions: The heatwave in France during August 2003 was associated with a large increase in the number of deaths. The impact estimated using a time-series design was consistent with crude previous estimates of the impact of the heatwave. This finding suggests that neither air pollution nor long-term and seasonal trends confounded previous estimates. There was no evidence to suggest that the extras deaths associated with the heatwave were simply brought forward in time.</div>
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<s0>Background: A heatwave occurred in France in August 2003, with an accompanying excess of all-cause mortality. This study quantifies this excess mortality and investigates a possible harvesting effect in the few weeks after the heatwave. Methods: A time-series study using a Poisson regression model with regression splines to control for nonlinear confounders was used to analyze the correlation between heatwave variable and mortality in 9 French cities. Results: After controlling for long-term and seasonal time trends and the usual effects of temperature and air pollution, we estimated that 3,096 extra deaths resulted from the heatwave. The maximum daily relative risk of mortality during the heatwave (compared with expected deaths at that time of year) ranged from 1.16 in Le Havre to 5.00 in Paris. There was little evidence of mortality displacement in the few weeks after the heatwave, with an estimated deficit of 253 deaths at the end of the period. Conclusions: The heatwave in France during August 2003 was associated with a large increase in the number of deaths. The impact estimated using a time-series design was consistent with crude previous estimates of the impact of the heatwave. This finding suggests that neither air pollution nor long-term and seasonal trends confounded previous estimates. There was no evidence to suggest that the extras deaths associated with the heatwave were simply brought forward in time.</s0>
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<ET>Impact of the 2003 heatwave on all-cause mortality in 9 french cities</ET>
<AU>LE TERTRE (Alain); LEFRANC (Agnès); EILSTEIN (Daniel); DECLERCQ (Christophe); MEDINA (Sylvia); BLANCHARD (Myriam); CHARDON (Benoit); FABRE (Pascal); FILLEUL (Laurent); JUSOT (Jean-Francois); PASCAL (Laurence); PROUVOST (Hélène); CASSADOU (Sylvie); LEDRANS (Martine)</AU>
<AF>Environmental Health Department, Institut de Veille Sanitaire/Paris/France (1 aut., 3 aut., 5 aut., 6 aut., 8 aut., 9 aut., 10 aut., 11 aut., 12 aut., 13 aut., 14 aut.); Health Regional Observatory/Paris/France (2 aut., 7 aut.); Health Regional Observatory/Lille/France (4 aut.)</AF>
<DT>Publication en série; Niveau analytique</DT>
<SO>Epidemiology : (Cambridge, Mass.); ISSN 1044-3983; Etats-Unis; Da. 2006; Vol. 17; No. 1; Pp. 75-79; Bibl. 28 ref.</SO>
<LA>Anglais</LA>
<EA>Background: A heatwave occurred in France in August 2003, with an accompanying excess of all-cause mortality. This study quantifies this excess mortality and investigates a possible harvesting effect in the few weeks after the heatwave. Methods: A time-series study using a Poisson regression model with regression splines to control for nonlinear confounders was used to analyze the correlation between heatwave variable and mortality in 9 French cities. Results: After controlling for long-term and seasonal time trends and the usual effects of temperature and air pollution, we estimated that 3,096 extra deaths resulted from the heatwave. The maximum daily relative risk of mortality during the heatwave (compared with expected deaths at that time of year) ranged from 1.16 in Le Havre to 5.00 in Paris. There was little evidence of mortality displacement in the few weeks after the heatwave, with an estimated deficit of 253 deaths at the end of the period. Conclusions: The heatwave in France during August 2003 was associated with a large increase in the number of deaths. The impact estimated using a time-series design was consistent with crude previous estimates of the impact of the heatwave. This finding suggests that neither air pollution nor long-term and seasonal trends confounded previous estimates. There was no evidence to suggest that the extras deaths associated with the heatwave were simply brought forward in time.</EA>
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<ED>2003; Heat; Mortality; Epidemiology; Air temperature; France; Urban environment; Public health; Summer; Human; Heat wawe</ED>
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