Business cycle synchronization between advanced countries and emerging countries : coupling or decoupling ?
Identifieur interne : 000217 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000216; suivant : 000218Business cycle synchronization between advanced countries and emerging countries : coupling or decoupling ?
Auteurs : Baher Ibrahim Elgahry [France]Source :
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Abstract
The aim of this thesis is to analyze business cycles correlation between developed and emerging countries, and to determine the relative importance of causal mechanisms of synchronization/desynchronization between these two groups of countries. The business cycles across countries: divergence or convergence? How cyclical phases that shake the developed countries are transmitted to emerging countries ? By examining the economic relations between advanced and emerging countries, our results show that there is business cycles synchronization between the two groups of countries, but also at the same time, a partial decoupling of business cycles between a limited number of these two groups of countries, particularly India and China. Trade integration and financial channels are the main determinants of cyclical synchronization between developed countries and emerging economies, with a relative importance of the financial factors. This result led us to analyze, further, the financial aspects. Thus, we studied in the first place, the financial stress index. It is observed that there is a strong correlation between financial turmoil of developed countries and emerging countries. It was tested, in the second place, the cyclical synchronization under different exchange rate regimes. It appears that emerging economies that adopt an intermediate exchange rate regime are more synchronized because there is a link between their cyclical correlation and their international reserves behavior. These arrive at their peak under an intermediate exchange rate regime, probably due to the intense relations with Europe and the United States, which reach their highest level under an intermediate exchange rate system.
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The business cycles across countries: divergence or convergence? How cyclical phases that shake the developed countries are transmitted to emerging countries ? By examining the economic relations between advanced and emerging countries, our results show that there is business cycles synchronization between the two groups of countries, but also at the same time, a partial decoupling of business cycles between a limited number of these two groups of countries, particularly India and China. Trade integration and financial channels are the main determinants of cyclical synchronization between developed countries and emerging economies, with a relative importance of the financial factors. This result led us to analyze, further, the financial aspects. Thus, we studied in the first place, the financial stress index. It is observed that there is a strong correlation between financial turmoil of developed countries and emerging countries. It was tested, in the second place, the cyclical synchronization under different exchange rate regimes. It appears that emerging economies that adopt an intermediate exchange rate regime are more synchronized because there is a link between their cyclical correlation and their international reserves behavior. These arrive at their peak under an intermediate exchange rate regime, probably due to the intense relations with Europe and the United States, which reach their highest level under an intermediate exchange rate system.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>France</li></country><region><li>Haute-Normandie</li><li>Région Normandie</li></region><settlement><li>Le Havre</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université du Havre</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="France"><region name="Région Normandie"><name sortKey="Ibrahim Elgahry, Baher" sort="Ibrahim Elgahry, Baher" uniqKey="Ibrahim Elgahry B" first="Baher" last="Ibrahim Elgahry">Baher Ibrahim Elgahry</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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